Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and Greetings, and welcome to the Huntington Bancshares Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 Huntington Bancshares 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tim Sedabres, Director of Investor Relations for Huntington Bancshares. Thank you. You may begin.

    現在我想將會議交給主持人蒂姆·塞達布雷斯 (Tim Sedabres),亨廷頓銀行 (Huntington Bancshares) 投資者關係總監。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Timothy R. Sedabres - Executive VP & Head of IR

    Timothy R. Sedabres - Executive VP & Head of IR

  • Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and good morning. Copies of the slides we will be reviewing today can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website, www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available starting about 1 hour from the close of the call. Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President and CEO; and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer. Rich Pohle, Chief Credit Officer, will join us for the Q&A. Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statements disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

    謝謝你,接線員。歡迎大家,早上好。我們今天要審查的幻燈片副本可以在我們網站 www.huntington.com 的投資者關係部分找到。謹此提醒,本次通話正在錄音,通話結束後約 1 小時將提供重播。今天我們的主講人是董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Steve Steinour;和首席財務官 Zach Wasserman。首席信貸官 Rich Pohle 將參加我們的問答。收益文件(包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計原則信息)可在我們網站的投資者關係部分獲取。

  • With that, let me now turn it over to Steve.

    現在讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Tim. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Thank you for joining the call today. We're pleased to announce our second quarter results, which Zach will detail later. Our approach to both our colleagues and customers continues to be grounded in our purpose and served us well in the second quarter. Our colleagues again demonstrated that we make people's lives better, help businesses thrive and strengthen the communities we serve.

    謝謝,蒂姆。大家早上好,歡迎光臨。感謝您今天加入通話。我們很高興宣布第二季度的業績,扎克稍後將詳細介紹。我們對待同事和客戶的方式繼續立足於我們的目標,並在第二季度為我們帶來了良好的效果。我們的同事再次證明,我們讓人們的生活更美好,幫助企業蓬勃發展,並加強我們所服務的社區。

  • Now, on to Slide 4. These are the key messages we want to highlight today. First, Huntington has a distinguished deposit franchise, which continues to benefit from our strategy to acquire and deepen primary bank customer relationships. This has fueled continued deposit growth over the year, including this quarter. Second, we once again drove capital ratios higher with common equity Tier 1 having increased for 4 quarters in a row. We remain on track to build CET1 to the high end of our range by year-end. Third, credit quality, which is a hallmark of the company is performing very well, and we continue to operate within our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite. Fourth, we are dynamically managing through the interest rate environment. We are maintaining disciplined deposit pricing while delivering deposit growth and maintaining a robust liquidity position.

    現在,轉到幻燈片 4。這些是我們今天要強調的關鍵信息。首先,亨廷頓擁有卓越的存款特許經營權,這將繼續受益於我們獲取和深化主要銀行客戶關係的戰略。這推動了全年存款持續增長,包括本季度。其次,我們再次推高資本比率,普通股一級資本連續四個季度增長。我們仍有望在年底前將 CET1 提升至我們的高端水平。第三,作為公司標誌的信用質量表現非常良好,我們繼續在總體中度至低度風險偏好範圍內運營。第四,我們通過利率環境進行動態管理。我們在保持嚴格的存款定價的同時實現存款增長並保持強勁的流動性頭寸。

  • Finally, we remain intently focused on executing our strategy. We are investing in the business to drive long-term sustainable revenue growth, and we continue to proactively manage the expense base to align with the revenue outlook. Operation accelerate remains on track, and we will increase our use of business process outsourcing to drive sustained efficiencies into 2024.

    最後,我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略。我們正在對該業務進行投資,以推動長期可持續的收入增長,並繼續積極管理費用基礎,以與收入前景保持一致。運營加速仍在軌道上,我們將增加業務流程外包的使用,以在 2024 年之前持續提高效率。

  • Moving on to Slide 5. Over the past decade, we've transformed Huntington. This puts us in a position of strength today. This foundation includes our granular and high-quality deposit base, which is supported by our leading consumer, business and commercial banking franchises. With this strong foundation in place, we can be nimble and seasonal opportunities to expand our business that will arise during times like these. The hiring of the fund finance team we announced last month is a great example. This business was on our Commercial Banking growth road map, and we're pleased to be able to add great talent and welcome these colleagues to Huntington. We are building capital even as we maintain loan growth. We are optimizing the level of new loan growth and remaining judicious for the loans we carry on balance sheet in order to generate the highest return on capital.

    轉到幻燈片 5。在過去的十年中,我們改變了亨廷頓。這使我們今天處於有利地位。這一基礎包括我們精細且高質量的存款基礎,並得到我們領先的消費者、企業和商業銀行特許經營權的支持。有了這個堅實的基礎,我們就可以抓住在這樣的時期出現的靈活和季節性的機會來擴展我們的業務。我們上個月宣布的基金財務團隊的招聘就是一個很好的例子。這項業務已列入我們的商業銀行業務發展路線圖,我們很高興能夠招募優秀人才並歡迎這些同事來到亨廷頓。我們在維持貸款增長的同時也在積累資本。我們正在優化新貸款增長水平,並對資產負債表上的貸款保持明智,以產生最高的資本回報率。

  • As a result, capital ratios expanded in the second quarter with our CET1 ratio increasing to 9.82%. Further, our adjusted CET1 ratio is 8.12% above the peer median. Our disciplined approach to risk management drives our strong credit quality with low net charge-offs and the nonperforming asset ratio decreasing for the eighth consecutive quarter. Our management team has a long track record of being disciplined operators with a focus on delivering value for shareholders. This execution has been awarded and recognized across the franchise, including winning the J.D. Power Mobile Award for the fifth year in a row and maintaining our strong #1 SBA ranking.

    因此,第二季度資本比率有所擴大,我們的 CET1 比率增至 9.82%。此外,我們調整後的 CET1 比率比同行中位數高出 8.12%。我們嚴格的風險管理方法推動了我們強大的信貸質量,淨沖銷率較低,不良資產率連續第八個季度下降。我們的管理團隊長期以來一直是紀律嚴明的經營者,專注於為股東創造價值。這種執行力在整個特許經營範圍內得到了獎勵和認可,包括連續第五年贏得 J.D. Power 移動獎,並保持我們強勁的 SBA 排名第一。

  • Regarding the macro outlook, it remains a dynamic environment, interest rates are playing out in the higher for longer scenario that we had been anticipating for some time. Economic activity in our footprint appears to be holding up relatively well, which supports sustained loan growth and solid credit performance. That said, we are diligent watching the environment closely and are actively managing our loan portfolio. We are well prepared to operate through a range of potential scenarios. Further, we are also closely monitoring the potential regulatory adjustments to capital and other requirements. We are evaluating the proposals and thus far, the potential new requirements appear broadly in line with what we had expected. We are well positioned to manage through these changes, address them expediently and over time, offset a meaningful portion of the potential impacts.

    就宏觀前景而言,它仍然是一個充滿活力的環境,利率正處於我們一段時間以來預期的長期較高的情景中。我們的經濟活動似乎保持相對良好,這支持了持續的貸款增長和穩健的信貸表現。也就是說,我們正在密切關注環境並積極管理我們的貸款組合。我們已做好應對一系列潛在情況的準備。此外,我們還在密切關注對資本和其他要求的潛在監管調整。我們正在評估這些提案,到目前為止,潛在的新要求似乎與我們的預期大體一致。我們有能力管理這些變化,迅速解決這些變化,並隨著時間的推移,抵消潛在影響中有意義的一部分。

  • And finally, before I hand it over to Zach, we want to share that Rich Pohle, our Chief Credit Officer, has announced his upcoming retirement effective at the end of 2023. We've greatly benefited from Rich's expertise and leadership during his nearly 12 years with Huntington. He's been a great leader of our colleagues and a great partner for me and the executive team. We have a strong bench and we're pleased Brendan Lawlor, Deputy Chief Credit Officer, will succeed Rich in this role at the end of the year. Brendan joined us in 2019 after 25-plus years as a Senior Commercial Credit Executive at a large regional bank and is currently responsible for all commercial credit across the bank.

    最後,在我將其交給Zach 之前,我們想告訴大家,我們的首席信貸官Rich Pohle 已宣布將於2023 年底退休。在Rich 近12 年間,我們從他的專業知識和領導力中受益匪淺。與亨廷頓共事多年。他是我們同事的優秀領導者,也是我和管理團隊的優秀合作夥伴。我們擁有強大的替補陣容,我們很高興副首席信貸官 Brendan Lawlor 將在今年年底接替 Rich 擔任這一職務。 Brendan 於 2019 年加入我們,此前他在一家大型區域銀行擔任高級商業信貸主管 25 多年,目前負責整個銀行的所有商業信貸。

  • Zach, over to you to provide more detail on our financial performance.

    扎克,請您提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Slide 6 provides highlights of our second quarter results. We reported GAAP earnings per common share of $0.35. Return on tangible common equity, or ROTCE, came in at 19.9% for the quarter. Further adjusting for AOCI, ROTCE was 15.8%. Deposits grew during the quarter, increasing by $2.7 billion or 1.9% on an end-of-period basis. Loan balances continue to grow as total loans increased by $900 million or 0.8% from the prior quarter.

    謝謝史蒂夫,大家早上好。幻燈片 6 提供了我們第二季度業績的亮點。我們報告的 GAAP 普通股收益為 0.35 美元。本季度有形普通股回報率 (ROTCE) 為 19.9%。進一步調整 AOCI,ROTCE 為 15.8%。本季度存款增長,期末增加 27 億美元,即 1.9%。貸款餘額繼續增長,貸款總額較上一季度增加 9 億美元,即 0.8%。

  • Credit quality remains strong with net charge-offs of 16 basis points and allowance for credit losses of 1.93%. As Steve mentioned, capital increased from the prior quarter. This solid capital position, coupled with our robust credit reserves, puts our CET1 plus ACL loss-absorbing capacity in the top quartile of the peer group.

    信貸質量依然強勁,淨沖銷為 16 個基點,信貸損失準備金為 1.93%。正如史蒂夫提到的,資本較上一季度有所增加。堅實的資本狀況,加上我們強勁的信貸儲備,使我們的 CET1 加上 ACL 的損失吸收能力在同行中名列前茅。

  • Turning to Slide 7. Average loan balances increased 0.8% quarter-over-quarter or 3.1% annualized, driven by commercial loans, which increased by $772 million or 1.1% from the prior quarter. Primary components of this commercial growth included distribution finance, which increased $464 million; asset Finance increased by $234 million; Business Banking increased by $160 million; Auto floorplan increased by $175 million. Offsetting this growth, CRE balances were lower by $340 million. In Consumer, growth continued to be led by residential mortgage, which increased by $438 million; and RV Marine, which increased by $112 million. Partially offsetting this growth were lower auto loan balances, which declined by $318 million.

    轉向幻燈片 7。在商業貸款的推動下,平均貸款餘額環比增長 0.8%,年化增長 3.1%,商業貸款增加 7.72 億美元,環比增長 1.1%。這一商業增長的主要組成部分包括分銷融資,增加了 4.64 億美元;資產融資增加2.34億美元;商業銀行業務增加1.6億美元;汽車平面圖增加了 1.75 億美元。 CRE 餘額減少了 3.4 億美元,抵消了這一增長。在消費者領域,住宅抵押貸款繼續引領增長,增加了 4.38 億美元; RV Marine 增加了 1.12 億美元。汽車貸款餘額下降 3.18 億美元,部分抵消了這一增長。

  • Turning to Slide 8. As noted, we continued to deliver ending deposit growth in the second quarter. Balances were higher by $2.7 billion, primarily driven by consumer with commercial balances up modestly. On a year-over-year basis, ending deposits increased by $2.6 billion or 1.8%.

    轉向幻燈片 8。如前所述,我們在第二季度繼續實現存款增長。餘額增加了 27 億美元,主要是由消費者和商業餘額小幅增長推動的。期末存款同比增加26億美元,增長1.8%。

  • Turning to Slide 9. We saw sustained growth in deposit balances throughout the second quarter. On a monthly basis, total deposit average balances expanded sequentially for April, May and June, with June 30 ending balances above the June monthly average, providing a strong start point as we enter Q3. Within consumer deposits, we have now seen average balances increase for 7 months in a row. Within Commercial, average monthly deposits were stable over the course of the second quarter.

    轉向幻燈片 9。我們看到整個第二季度存款餘額持續增長。從月度來看,4 月、5 月和 6 月總存款平均餘額連續擴大,6 月 30 日期末餘額高於 6 月月平均水平,為進入第三季度提供了強勁的起點。在消費者存款方面,我們現在看到平均餘額連續 7 個月增長。在商業領域,第二季度平均每月存款保持穩定。

  • Turning to Slide 10. I want to share more details on our noninterest-bearing deposits. Overall, the $33 billion of these deposits represent 23% of total balances and are well diversified across Consumer, Business and Commercial Banking. The ongoing mix shift we have seen from noninterest-bearing over the past 2 quarters has been in line with our expectations and consistent with what we saw in the last cycle. We expect this mix shift trend to moderate and then stabilize in 2024. This trend is reflected in our total deposit beta guidance.

    轉向幻燈片 10。我想分享有關我們的無息存款的更多詳細信息。總體而言,這些存款達 330 億美元,佔總餘額的 23%,並且在消費者、企業和商業銀行業務領域實現了多元化。過去兩個季度,我們從無息貸款中看到的持續的結構轉變符合我們的預期,也與我們在上一個週期看到的情況一致。我們預計這種混合轉變趨勢將放緩,然後在 2024 年趨於穩定。這一趨勢反映在我們的總存款貝塔指引中。

  • On to Slide 11. For the quarter, net interest income decreased by $61 million or 4.3% to $1,357 billion, driven by lower sequential net interest margin. On a year-over-year basis, NII increased $90 million or 7.1%. We continue to benefit significantly from our asset sensitivity and the expansion of margins that has occurred throughout the cycle. Reconciling the change in NIM from the prior quarter, we saw a reduction of 29 basis points on both a GAAP and core basis excluding accretion. During Q2, we maintained an elevated cash balance relative to Q1, which impacted NIM even as it had a relatively minor actual cash economic cost. On a comparative basis, normalizing for cash levels, NIM was 3.17% for the quarter or a 21 basis point decline from the prior quarter.

    參見幻燈片 11。本季度淨利息收入下降 6,100 萬美元,即 4.3%,至 13,570 億美元,原因是淨息差環比下降。與去年同期相比,NII 增加了 9000 萬美元,即 7.1%。我們繼續從整個週期中的資產敏感性和利潤率擴張中受益匪淺。與上一季度相比,NIM 變化得到調整,我們發現 GAAP 和不計增值的核心基礎均減少了 29 個基點。在第二季度,我們相對於第一季度保持了較高的現金餘額,這對淨息差產生了影響,儘管實際現金經濟成本相對較小。在比較基礎上,現金水平正常化後,本季度淨息差為 3.17%,比上一季度下降 21 個基點。

  • The biggest drivers of the lower NIM quarter-over-quarter were higher funding costs partially offset by increased earning asset yields. We continue to analyze multiple potential interest rate scenarios as we forecast expected trends over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. The 2 primary scenarios we incorporate include: one, which is represented by the forward yield curve and another, which assumes rates stay higher for longer and end 2024, approximately 75 basis points higher than the forward. We think this is the most likely range for short-term rates over the next 6 quarters. Based on this range, we anticipate net interest margin of approximately 3% by Q4, plus or minus a few basis points. This would equate to core net interest income on a dollar basis for the fourth quarter to be down approximately 1% to 2% from Q2 levels. As we look out further into 2024, clearly, the trends will depend on both those interest rate scenarios and what is happening with the broader economy and industry factors, including loan demand and deposit growth. That said, our modeling indicates NIM outlooks are stable to rising during 2024, which, coupled with earning asset growth, is expected to drive net interest income dollar expansion as we move through 2024. Turning to Slide 12. Cost of deposits moved higher in the quarter to 1.57%. Our cumulative beta through Q2 is 32%, up 7 percentage points from the prior quarter, in line with our expectations and prior guidance. As I mentioned, we continue to expect cumulative deposit beta of approximately 40%. Turning to Slide 13. On the securities portfolio, we saw another step-up in reported yields quarter-over-quarter. We did not reinvest cash flows from securities in the second quarter as we allowed those proceeds to remain in cash given the attractive short-term rates. Cash and securities balances on average increased by $5 billion from the prior quarter as we maintained higher cash levels in the quarter. As of June 30, on an ending basis, cash and securities totaled $52 billion, representing a more normalized level as we go forward into Q3. Turning to Slide 14. Our contingent liquidity continues to be robust. Our 2 primary sources of liquidity, cash and borrowing capacity at the FHLB and Federal Reserve represented $11 billion and $77 billion, respectively, at the end of Q2. At quarter end, this pool of available liquidity represented 205% of total uninsured deposits, a peer-leading coverage. Turning to Slide 15. Our hedging program is dynamic, continually optimized and well diversified. Our objectives are to protect capital in uprate scenarios and protect NIM in downrate scenarios. During the quarter, we further expanded our Pay Fix swaptions hedge position to protect capital from tail risk in substantive upgrade scenarios. There is a modest upfront premium associated with these swaptions and the hedges result in a mark-to-market each quarter as they're deemed economic hedges. On the subsequent slide, you will see that positive impact during the second quarter on our fee revenues. We also remain focused on our objective of managing NIM to protect the downside and have maintained additional upside NIM opportunity given our asset sensitivity. The interest rate movements in the first few weeks of Q3 have provided opportunities for additional attractive hedging. We have incrementally added modest additional exposures to both our capital protection and NIM protection hedge portfolios and will remain dynamic as we go throughout the quarter if further opportunities arise. Moving on to Slide 16. Noninterest income was $495 million for the second quarter. Excluding notable items, fees increased $40 million, including an $18 million benefit from the positive mark-to-market on the pay fix swaptions. Excluding this benefit, underlying fee income would have been $477 million. We saw solid performance in our key areas of strategic focus, including payments and wealth management. Capital markets revenues declined by $2 million from the prior quarter, however, increased by $3 million year-over-year. Clearly, the events of March and the U.S. debt ceiling debate caused a fairly challenging capital markets environment in Q2. However, pipelines remain solid, and there are encouraging signs pointing to opportunity in the back half of the year. Moving on to Slide 17. GAAP noninterest expense decreased by $36 million. Adjusted for notable items in the prior quarter, core expenses increased by $6 million, driven by a full quarter effect of annual merit increases and higher marketing spend. We entered the year with a posture of managing core expense growth to a very low level given the economic backdrop. We developed and executed a series of proactive actions to reduce expense run rates, including the voluntary retirement program, organizational alignment and our continued implementation of long-term efficiency programs such as branch optimization and operation accelerate. We continually calibrate the level of expense growth to revenues, and we're taking additional actions to further manage the pace of expense growth, even as we remain focused on self-funding investments in our key growth initiatives. We are actively working on the next set of medium-term efficiency opportunities, including business process outsourcing, which represents a promising lever for us to continue to deliver a low level expense growth into 2024. Slide 18 recaps our capital position. Common Equity Tier 1 increased to 9.82% and has increased sequentially for 4 quarters. OCI impacts to common equity Tier 1 resulted in an adjusted CET1 ratio of 8.12%. Our tangible common equity ratio, or TCE, increased 3 basis points to 5.80%. Q2 ending cash levels were higher than Q1 end, which impacted the TCE ratio by 2 basis points. Adjusting for AOCI, our TCE ratio was 7.45%. Our capital management strategy will result in expanding capital over the course of the year while maintaining our top priority to fund high-return loan growth. We intend to grow CET1 to the very high end of our target operating range of 9% to 10%. Adjusting for AOCI, we expect adjusted CET1 to be in the approximately mid-8s range by year-end. On Slide 19, credit quality continues to perform very well. As mentioned, net charge-offs were 16 basis points for the quarter. This was lower than last quarter by 3 basis points. On a year-over-year basis, charge-offs were up 13 basis points from the prior year's historic low level. Nonperforming assets declined from the previous quarter and have reduced for 8 consecutive quarters. Allowance for credit losses is higher by 3 basis points to 1.93% of total loans. On Slide 20, we continue to be below our target range of net charge-offs through the cycle of 25 to 45 basis points and our ACL coverage ratio is among the highest in our peer group. Let's turn to our 2023 outlook on Slide 21. As I noted, we analyzed multiple potential scenarios to project financial performance and develop management action plans. Our guidance is informed by the interest rate scenarios I discussed previously and the consensus economic outlook. On loans, our outlook is 5% to 6%, consistent with our prior expectations to be near the lower end of our prior range. On deposits, we maintain our outlook of 1% to 3% growth for the full year. Core net interest income ex PAA and PPP is expected to grow between 3% and 5%, inclusive of our expectations for deposit beta and loan growth. Noninterest income on a core full year basis is expected to be down 2% to 4%. This range reflects the results from capital markets we've already seen in Q2 and the assumption of gradual improvement in activities throughout the balance of the year. The remainder of our fee businesses are tracking very well to our prior expectations. On expenses, as noted, we are proactively managing with a posture to keep underlying core expense growth at a very low level and calibrated to revenue growth. For the full year, we expect core underlying expense growth between 1% and 2%, plus the incremental expenses from the full year run rate of Capstone and Torana of approximately $50 million and the 2 basis point increase in 2023 FDIC insurance rates of approximately $30 million. And finally, given the strong results posted during the first half of the year, we now expect full year net charge-offs to be between 20 to 30 basis points. With that, we will conclude our prepared remarks and move to Q&A. Tim, over to you.

    淨息差環比下降的最大驅動因素是融資成本上升,但盈利資產收益率上升部分抵消了融資成本上升。我們繼續分析多種潛在的利率情景,同時預測2023 年剩餘時間和2024 年的預期趨勢。我們納入的2 個主要情景包括:一種由遠期收益率曲線代表,另一種假設利率在2023 年剩餘時間和2024 年保持較高水平。到 2024 年年底,比遠期高出約 75 個基點。我們認為這是未來 6 個季度短期利率最有可能的範圍。根據這一範圍,我們預計第四季度淨息差約為 3%,上下浮動幾個基點。這相當於第四季度以美元計算的核心淨利息收入比第二季度水平下降約 1% 至 2%。當我們進一步展望 2024 年時,顯然,趨勢將取決於這些利率情景以及更廣泛的經濟和行業因素(包括貸款需求和存款增長)的情況。也就是說,我們的模型表明,2024 年淨息差前景穩定上升,加上生息資產增長,預計將在 2024 年推動淨利息收入美元擴張。轉向幻燈片 12。存款成本在 2024 年上升。季度至1.57%。我們第二季度的累計貝塔值為 32%,比上一季度上升 7 個百分點,符合我們的預期和之前的指導。正如我提到的,我們繼續預計累積存款貝塔值約為 40%。轉向幻燈片 13。在證券投資組合方面,我們看到報告收益率環比再次上升。我們沒有在第二季度將證券現金流進行再投資,因為鑑於短期利率具有吸引力,我們允許這些收益保留為現金。由於本季度現金水平保持較高水平,現金和證券餘額平均比上季度增加 50 億美元。截至 6 月 30 日,按期末計算,現金和證券總額為 520 億美元,這是進入第三季度時更加正常化的水平。轉向幻燈片 14。我們的或有流動性仍然強勁。截至第二季度末,我們在 FHLB 和美聯儲的流動性、現金和借貸能力的兩個主要來源分別為 110 億美元和 770 億美元。截至季度末,該可用流動性池佔未保險存款總額的 205%,覆蓋範圍處於同行領先水平。轉向幻燈片 15。我們的對沖計劃是動態的、不斷優化的且高度多樣化。我們的目標是在利率上調的情況下保護資本,在利率下調的情況下保護淨息差。本季度,我們進一步擴大了 Pay Fix 掉期期權對沖頭寸,以保護資本在實質性升級情景中免受尾部風險的影響。這些掉期期權會產生適度的前期溢價,並且對沖會導致每個季度按市值計價,因為它們被視為經濟對沖。在接下來的幻燈片中,您將看到第二季度對我們的費用收入的積極影響。我們還繼續專注於管理淨息差以保護下行的目標,並鑑於我們的資產敏感性,保持了額外的淨息差上行機會。第三季度前幾週的利率變動為額外有吸引力的對沖提供了機會。我們已逐步向我們的資本保護和淨息差保護對沖投資組合增加了適度的額外風險敞口,並且如果出現進一步的機會,我們將在整個季度保持動態。繼續看幻燈片 16。第二季度非利息收入為 4.95 億美元。不包括顯著項目,費用增加了 4000 萬美元,其中包括薪酬固定互換期權按市值計價的 1800 萬美元收益。排除此項福利,基本費用收入將為 4.77 億美元。我們在支付和財富管理等關鍵戰略重點領域取得了穩健的業績。資本市場收入較上一季度下降 200 萬美元,但同比增加 300 萬美元。顯然,三月份的事件和美國債務上限爭論導致第二季度資本市場環境相當具有挑戰性。然而,管道仍然穩固,並且有令人鼓舞的跡象表明今年下半年存在機遇。轉到幻燈片 17。GAAP 非利息支出減少了 3600 萬美元。對上一季度的顯著項目進行調整後,核心費用增加了 600 萬美元,這是由於年度績效增長和營銷支出增加對整個季度的影響。鑑於經濟背景,我們在進入這一年時採取了將核心費用增長控制在非常低水平的姿態。我們制定並執行了一系列主動行動來降低費用運行率,包括自願退休計劃、組織調整以及持續實施分支機構優化和運營加速等長期效率計劃。我們不斷根據收入調整費用增長水平,並且我們正在採取額外行動來進一步管理費用增長的步伐,儘管我們仍然專注於關鍵增長計劃的自籌資金投資。我們正在積極致力於下一組中期效率機會,包括業務流程外包,這對我們來說是一個有前途的槓桿,可以讓我們在2024 年繼續實現低水平的費用增長。幻燈片18 回顧了我們的資本狀況。一級普通股增至 9.82%,並已連續 4 個季度增長。 OCI 對普通股一級普通股的影響導致調整後的 CET1 比率為 8.12%。我們的有形普通股權益比率 (TCE) 增加了 3 個基點,達到 5.80%。第二季度末現金水平高於第一季度末,這影響了 TCE 比率 2 個基點。調整 AOCI 後,我們的 TCE 比率為 7.45%。我們的資本管理策略將在一年內擴大資本,同時保持我們的首要任務是為高回報貸款增長提供資金。我們打算將 CET1 增長到我們目標運營範圍的最高端 9% 至 10%。根據 AOCI 進行調整,我們預計到年底調整後的 CET1 大約在 8 左右。在幻燈片 19 上,信用質量繼續表現良好。如前所述,本季度淨沖銷為 16 個基點。這比上季度低了 3 個基點。與去年同期相比,核銷額比上年的歷史最低水平上升了 13 個基點。不良資產環比下降,已連續8個季度下降。信貸損失準備金提高了3個基點,達到貸款總額的1.93%。在幻燈片 20 上,我們在 25 至 45 個基點的周期中繼續低於淨沖銷目標範圍,並且我們的 ACL 覆蓋率是同行中最高的。讓我們轉向幻燈片 21 中的 2023 年展望。正如我所指出的,我們分析了多種潛在情景,以預測財務業績並製定管理行動計劃。我們的指導意見是基於我之前討論的利率情景和普遍的經濟前景。在貸款方面,我們的預期為 5% 至 6%,與我們之前的預期一致,接近之前範圍的下限。在存款方面,我們維持全年 1% 至 3% 增長的預期。扣除 PAA 和 PPP 後的核心淨利息收入預計將增長 3% 至 5%,其中包括我們對存款貝塔係數和貸款增長的預期。全年核心非利息收入預計將下降 2% 至 4%。這一範圍反映了我們在第二季度已經看到的資本市場的結果以及全年活動逐步改善的假設。我們其餘的收費業務進展順利,符合我們之前的預期。在費用方面,如上所述,我們正在積極進行管理,將基本核心費用增長保持在非常低的水平,並根據收入增長進行調整。對於全年,我們預計核心基礎費用增長在 1% 至 2% 之間,加上 Capstone 和 Torana 全年運行費用約 5000 萬美元的增量費用以及 2023 年 FDIC 保險費率增加 2 個基點約 30 美元百萬。最後,鑑於上半年公佈的強勁業績,我們現在預計全年淨沖銷將在 20 至 30 個基點之間。至此,我們將結束準備好的發言並進入問答環節。蒂姆,交給你了。

  • Timothy R. Sedabres - Executive VP & Head of IR

    Timothy R. Sedabres - Executive VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Zack. Operator, we will now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy to your peers, each person ask only one question and one related follow-up. And then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue. Thank you.

    謝謝,扎克。接線員,我們現在開始提問。出於對同事的禮貌,我們要求每個人只提出一個問題和一項相關的後續行動。然後,如果該人還有其他問題,他或她可以將自己重新添加到隊列中。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

  • Manan Gosalia - Equity Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to dig into your comments on NIM being stable to rising in 2024 under the 2 scenarios that you outlined for it. Can you expand on some of the moving parts in there, especially in the higher for longer scenario? I guess, would that put more pressure on NII than the forward curve scenario with higher deposit betas? Or do I have that wrong?

    我想深入了解您對 NIM 在您概述的兩種情況下在 2024 年穩定上升的評論。您能否擴展其中的一些活動部件,尤其是在更高、更長的場景中?我想,與存款貝塔值較高的遠期曲線情景相比,這會給NII帶來更大的壓力嗎?還是我有錯?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Manan, this is Zach. I'll take that one, and thanks for the question. I think the outlook that we're seeing is really consistent with both of those scenarios. So I think (inaudible) in the higher per longer scenario that's sort of the top end of that general range, would benefit from asset sensitivity, asset yields would continue to rise, likely there would be a continuation in kind of an extending (inaudible) of the liability pricing cycle. But the none of those 2 things, we continue to expect to actually be higher overall NIM, given the asset sensitivity and very consistent with what we've discussed over time.

    馬南,這是紮克。我會接受這個,謝謝你的提問。我認為我們所看到的前景與這兩種情況確實一致。因此,我認為(聽不清)在較高的長期情景中,即一般範圍的頂端,將從資產敏感性中受益,資產收益率將繼續上升,可能會繼續延長(聽不清)負債定價週期。但考慮到資產敏感性,並且與我們長期以來討論的內容非常一致,我們仍然預計總體淨息差實際上會更高。

  • At the lower end of the scenario, you see the kind of the faster (inaudible) of the deposit pricing cycle, but also some less increase in asset pricing, and we likewise (inaudible). For the NIM, but albeit maybe a few basis points lower than that. So generally, higher rates for us continue to corroborate to hire them. I would note as well that during the course of 2024, we will benefit from the shifting from a negative carry on our downrate hedging program to much more neutral position by the end of the year. So that will be a support for NIM trajectory throughout the course of '24.

    在這種情況的低端,您會看到存款定價週期更快(聽不清),但資產定價的增幅也較小,我們同樣如此(聽不清)。對於淨息差來說,儘管可能比這低幾個基點。因此,總的來說,我們繼續以更高的價格僱用他們。我還要指出的是,在 2024 年期間,我們將受益於我們的降息對沖計劃從負利差到年底轉向更加中性的立場。因此,這將在整個 24 年期間為 NIM 軌跡提供支持。

  • Manan Gosalia - Equity Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And then separately, just on regulation overall, I know you noted that the new requirements seem to broadly coming in, in line with expectations. But maybe if you can dig into how you're managing ahead of that. I know you're keeping you're building capital levels from here. You're holding a high level of cash instead of reinvesting in securities. So maybe can you expand on where you expect regulation to go, especially as it relates to the AOCI opt-out as well as LCR.

    知道了。然後,就總體監管而言,我知道您注意到新要求似乎廣泛出現,符合預期。但也許如果你能在此之前深入研究一下你是如何管理的。我知道你一直在從這裡建立資本水平。您持有大量現金,而不是再投資於證券。因此,也許您可​​以擴展一下您期望監管的方向,尤其是與 AOCI 選擇退出和 LCR 相關的情況。

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Sure. As you know, we are trying to be planful anticipatory of where we think things are going and manage it headed. And I think at the most macro level, we do think we'll be able to relatively expediently address these potential new regulations. And frankly, over time, offset a lot of what otherwise the potential impact on them. But digging in specifically, it's our working assumption that the tailoring exclusion of AOCI, not (inaudible) CET1 will likely be removed. And hence, it's our plan to see to manage capital hire to CET1 inclusive of AOCI higher in the guidance we indicated in the mid-8s range by the end of 2023. And if we continue on with the same operating posture to 2024, we would expect that ratio to approach 9% essentially get to 9% by the end of 2024. So back to essentially the low end of our operating range on that basis.

    當然。如您所知,我們正在努力有計劃地預測我們認為事情的發展方向並管理它的方向。我認為在最宏觀的層面上,我們確實認為我們將能夠相對方便地解決這些潛在的新法規。坦率地說,隨著時間的推移,抵消了很多原本對他們造成的潛在影響。但具體來說,我們的工作假設是,AOCI 的定制排除,而不是(聽不清)CET1 可能會被刪除。因此,我們計劃到 2023 年底將包括 AOCI 在內的 CET1 資本租賃管理水平提高到我們在 8 歲左右的指導範圍內。如果我們繼續保持相同的運營態勢到 2024 年,我們將預計到2024 年底,該比率將接近9%,基本上達到9%。因此,在此基礎上回到我們運營範圍的低端。

  • We're also actively looking at the Basel III potential new RWA changes. As you know well, there are 3 big changes in there. The fundamental review of the trading book, we think that's going to essentially material for Huntington given our business mix. There's operational risk requirements, which likely will be increasing RWA, they're largely key-off of fee income. We see a slightly higher aridity from that. However, offsetting that, will be credit risk RWAs, which are more new ones, more fine-tuned and on-net are lower, we believe, for Huntington. Still early days, and we have more analysis to go away. We see offsetting factors there unclear whether there will be a net impact from that, but generally relatively offsetting.

    我們還在積極研究巴塞爾協議 III 潛在的新 RWA 變化。如您所知,其中有 3 個重大變化。考慮到我們的業務組合,對交易書籍的基本面審查,我們認為這對亨廷頓來說至關重要。有操作風險要求,這可能會增加 RWA,它們很大程度上會影響費用收入。我們從中看到干旱度稍高。然而,抵消這一點的是信用風險 RWA,我們認為,對於亨廷頓來說,信用風險 RWA 更新穎、更精細,而且網上的風險更低。還為時過早,我們還有更多的分析要做。我們看到了抵消因素,不清楚是否會產生淨影響,但總體上是相對抵消的。

  • As it relates to other regulatory focuses like liquidity like potential long-term debt. Likewise, we're monitoring, and we think we can -- those impacts will be relatively small over time. Happy to double click on that and any further questions for folks want.

    因為它與其他監管焦點相關,例如潛在長期債務等流動性。同樣,我們正在監控,並且我們認為我們可以——隨著時間的推移,這些影響將相對較小。很高興雙擊它以及人們想要的任何其他問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

  • Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

    Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

  • We're seeing from some of your peers is a pullback in lending as they look to build capital and alleviate some funding pressure. On the flip side, obviously, you've got very strong capital, strong liquidity as you highlighted, high reserves. I'm just wondering how you're thinking about how you can play offset and maybe to even pull back by some of your peers?

    我們從一些同行那裡看到貸款正在減少,因為他們希望建立資本並減輕一些融資壓力。另一方面,顯然,正如您所強調的,您擁有非常雄厚的資本、強大的流動性和高儲備。我只是想知道你是如何考慮如何發揮抵消作用,甚至可能被你的一些同行拉回來?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • It's a great question, Matt, and it's something that we really have to look at because we are in a position of strength. We want to really seize the opportunities to win new clients in a great business. It's in times like this that companies when they operate (inaudible) can being meaningfully during market share, and we're cognizant of that. We're balancing that clearly with 2 factors: One, the desire to not only grow loans, but to also drive capital or as I just noted in the prior question. So we're actively modulating loan growth, bringing it down from a 10% run rate year-over-year level to 5% in Q1, 3% in Q2.

    馬特,這是一個很好的問題,我們確實必須考慮這個問題,因為我們處於優勢地位。我們希望真正抓住機會,在偉大的業務中贏得新客戶。在這樣的時期,公司在運營時(聽不清)可以在市場份額方面發揮有意義的作用,我們認識到這一點。我們正在通過兩個因素來明確平衡:其一,不僅希望增加貸款,還希望增加資本,或者正如我在上一個問題中剛剛指出的那樣。因此,我們正在積極調整貸款增長,將其從同比運行率 10% 降至第一季度的 5%,第二季度的 3%。

  • I think will be more like 1% probably the back half of the year. We're also very much looking at how we can potentially optimize the balance sheet and drive higher returns out of the assets that we do have. With that being said, we are on our front foot. You saw us hire the fund for the EMS team, which will be a great new business line for us, brings liquidity, great customer quality there. And we are continuing to look finding pockets of strong growth, even as we optimize for the highest returns for the year at the margin. So very much on the front book. And to your point, there are back opportunities that we'll see some (inaudible).

    我認為今年下半年可能會增加 1% 左右。我們還非常關注如何優化資產負債表並從我們現有的資產中獲得更高的回報。話雖如此,我們已經處於領先地位。您看到我們為 EMS 團隊聘請了資金,這對我們來說將是一個很棒的新業務線,為那裡帶來流動性和出色的客戶質量。我們正在繼續尋找強勁增長的領域,即使我們在邊際上優化了年度最高回報。前面的書上講了很多。就你的觀點而言,我們會看到一些回來的機會(聽不清)。

  • Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

    Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

  • And then I guess just following up on the lending side. I mean everything we can track, it seems like auto spreads are at or near highs, (inaudible) highs, commercial spread of widen. So why isn't there a leaning into this? Or is it just that the demand is not there at this point?

    然後我想只是在貸款方面跟進。我的意思是我們可以跟踪的一切,汽車利差似乎處於或接近高點,(聽不清)高點,商業利差擴大。那麼為什麼沒有人傾向於這個呢?或者只是目前沒有需求?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Look, I think there are continues to be pockets of demand and great clients. And we've got a very strong set of workforce supporting as well. And to your point, the yields are strong. With that being said, clearly, the deposit costs are also rising and funding costs are also rising. So we're balancing those things in the way we think is prudent. Driving higher yields, I would say, really feel encouraged by what we're seeing on the asset yield side. The long-durated asset categories like mortgage and auto really benefiting between 10 bps and 20 bps on the portfolio. And I expect that to continue for some time to come really sustaining that 2024 beyond NIM that we were talking about in the previous question, even as again, we optimize to also allow capital to us.

    看,我認為仍然有大量的需求和偉大的客戶。我們還擁有非常強大的勞動力支持。就您而言,收益率很高。話雖如此,顯然存款成本也在上升,融資成本也在上升。因此,我們正在以我們認為謹慎的方式平衡這些事情。我想說,推動更高的收益率確實對我們在資產收益率方面看到的情況感到鼓舞。抵押貸款和汽車等長期資產類別確實在投資組合中受益 10 個基點至 20 個基點。我預計這種情況將持續一段時間,真正維持到 2024 年,超越我們在上一個問題中討論的 NIM,即使我們再次優化以允許資本流入我們。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Matt, this is Steve. I think it's fair to say we're being a little cautious until we know the outcome of the regulatory suggested reforms as well. There's more opportunity. I think that we will avail ourselves once we know what the rules are and the positions that we need to have going forward.

    馬特,這是史蒂夫。我認為可以公平地說,在我們了解監管建議改革的結果之前,我們有點謹慎。還有更多機會。我認為,一旦我們了解了規則是什麼以及我們未來需要採取的立場,我們就會受益匪淺。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

  • Steven A. Alexopoulos - MD and Head of Mid-Cap & Small-Cap Banks

    Steven A. Alexopoulos - MD and Head of Mid-Cap & Small-Cap Banks

  • I want to -- so at the commentary you gave about the NIM getting down to about 3% by the fourth quarter is helpful. I'd imagine once we move beyond that, because it sounds like most of the mix shift out of noninterest-bearing will be done, it's really going to be that incremental NIM that's going to decide where we go from there. What is the spot NIM today, right, incremental loans, incremental deposits? Just how does that compare to that 3% level?

    我想——所以你關於淨息差到第四季度下降到 3% 左右的評論是有幫助的。我想,一旦我們超越這個目標,因為聽起來大多數非計息混合轉型將會完成,那麼增量淨息差實際上將決定我們接下來的發展方向。今天的現貨NIM是啥,增量貸款,增量存款?與 3% 的水平相比如何?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • It's still higher than that. I think, again, I'd point you to for the quarter adjusted for cash levels that we're kind of running at now in the third quarter, the second quarter was around 3.17%. And so what we're seeing at the margin is continued modest decline in them here through the course of the balance of this year from that 3.17% normalized Q2 run rate down to the 3% by the end of the year. And I agree with your point, which is as you get into the early part of next year, a lot of the kind of major trends starting to stabilize, and it's really not incremental fundamental what the underlying is. Likely, there will be some potential continued trends in the very early part of '24, but I agree with your point. I would also note that for us during the quarter, the reduction in the negative carrier from hedges will incrementally help obviously do the course of the year again.

    它仍然比那更高。我想,我想再次向您指出,根據我們目前在第三季度運行的現金水平進行調整的季度,第二季度約為 3.17%。因此,我們看到的是,在今年餘下的時間裡,它們的利潤率持續小幅下降,從正常化的第二季度運行率 3.17% 降至年底的 3%。我同意你的觀點,即當你進入明年初時,許多主要趨勢開始穩定下來,而其真正的本質並不是漸進的基本面。 24 年初可能會出現一些潛在的持續趨勢,但我同意你的觀點。我還想指出的是,對於我們來說,在本季度,對沖帶來的負面影響的減少將逐步幫助我們再次完成今年的工作。

  • Steven A. Alexopoulos - MD and Head of Mid-Cap & Small-Cap Banks

    Steven A. Alexopoulos - MD and Head of Mid-Cap & Small-Cap Banks

  • Right for some tailwinds there. Okay. And then for Steve. So the equity market seems to be coming around to this possibility of the soft landing. I'm curious, when you talk to your customers, what are you hearing? Are they coming around to the soft landing and maybe a little more optimistic what are you hearing.

    適合那裡的一些順風。好的。然後是史蒂夫。因此,股市似乎正在接受軟著陸的可能性。我很好奇,當您與客戶交談時,您聽到了什麼?他們是否正在走向軟著陸,也許你所聽到的消息更加樂觀一些。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Steve, I would say our customers generally are having a good year and expect to close out with the good year. They're working their margins through expenses, but inflation seems to be a big, and the supply chain is in better shape. Clearer line sites to this half, and they're optimistic about '24 and beyond generally. So this would suggest at worst-case soft landing and potentially the ability to avoid a recession. In the Midwest, particularly our footprint, we still have a lot of economic activity, announcements of investments, targeted growth. So we're in a good position relative to some of the other regions, and we have significant activity going on that I think we'll see particularly here in Ohio through the course of this year.

    史蒂夫,我想說,我們的客戶總體上度過了美好的一年,並期望以美好的一年結束。他們通過支出來維持利潤,但通貨膨脹似乎很嚴重,而且供應鏈狀況也更好。到今年上半年,線路站點更加清晰,他們總體上對 24 年及以後持樂觀態度。因此,這表明在最壞的情況下會實現軟著陸,並有可能避免經濟衰退。在中西部,特別是我們的足跡,我們仍然有很多經濟活動、投資公告和目標增長。因此,相對於其他一些地區,我們處於有利的位置,而且我們正在開展重大活動,我認為今年我們將在俄亥俄州看到這些活動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的聯繫。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • Just wanted to go -- spend some time on the expense outlook. I think you've done a lot of work year-to-date, the project actual rate that you talk about. In fact, I think you said the goal is to keep expense growth low for next year. Maybe give us a sense of the size of the BPO opportunity that you talked about? And how do you think about positive operating leverage going into next year given NII growth will likely be down. What's around that?

    只是想去——花一些時間考慮一下費用前景。我認為您今年迄今為止已經做了很多工作,即您所說的項目實際率。事實上,我認為您所說的目標是明年保持較低的費用增長。也許能讓我們了解您談到的 BPO 機會的規模?鑑於 NII 增長可能會下降,您如何看待明年的積極運營槓桿?那周圍有什麼?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Yes. Great question, Ebrahim. Thanks. So maybe framing the overall (inaudible) is very much to keep operating expenses at a very low level, not only this year, but next year. We've been trying to be very proactive and setting up those programs and can implement them effectively and have to build over time. On the BPO opportunity, this is something that we have leveraged over time for a while and continually looking at from a strategic perspective, what functions that we really believe must be owned or the critical value for the real by Huntington versus those that we can benefit from the scale capabilities of partnering (inaudible). The more we need in to analyze that, the more we're encouraged there are incremental opportunities. Relatively modest in terms of size this year, but building over time. And I think really part of the portfolio of efficiency programs that will support that low level of '24 and frankly, to continue to build into '25 and beyond also. So it's encouraging to get part of the portfolio of programs with something that we're incrementally leading in now to be able to accelerate the benefits of.

    是的。好問題,易卜拉欣。謝謝。因此,也許制定整體(聽不清)非常有助於將運營支出保持在非常低的水平,不僅是今年,而且是明年。我們一直在努力非常主動地制定這些計劃,並且可以有效地實施它們,並且必須隨著時間的推移而建立。關於 BPO 機會,這是我們一段時間以來一直利用的東西,並不斷從戰略角度審視我們真正認為必須擁有的功能或亨廷頓真正的關鍵價值與我們可以受益的功能來自合作的規模能力(聽不清) 。我們越需要對此進行分析,我們就越受到鼓舞,發現更多的機會。今年的規模相對較小,但會隨著時間的推移而不斷擴大。我認為這確實是效率計劃組合的一部分,將支持 24 世紀的低水平,坦率地說,將繼續建設到 25 世紀及以後。因此,令人鼓舞的是,我們現在正在逐步領先,以便能夠加速受益,從而將項目組合的一部分納入其中。

  • On positive operating leverage, as we've said a lot, it's a core tenet of our operating plans, one of the 3 major financial targets we set for ourselves, it's something we take very seriously. Of course, we're managing the company for the medium term to really generate value and want to make sure that we're not doing anything in the short term that we've damaged that long-term growth trajectory. Too early to say what '24 will look like. I think you'll clearly have a grow over on revenue that will pressure revenue growth, but we're also very encouraged with the opportunity to keep expense growth low. So not going to give guidance at this moment. I still think it's within the major reason that we're going to drive order.

    關於積極的運營槓桿,正如我們已經說過的很多,這是我們運營計劃的核心原則,是我們為自己設定的三大財務目標之一,我們非常重視這一點。當然,我們在中期管理公司是為了真正創造價值,並希望確保我們不會在短期內做任何損害長期增長軌蹟的事情。現在說 24 世紀會是什麼樣子還為時過早。我認為收入的增長顯然會給收入增長帶來壓力,但我們也對有機會保持較低的費用增長感到非常鼓舞。所以目前不打算提供指導。我仍然認為這是我們推動訂單的主要原因。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Ebrahim, if I could add, this is Steve. The team is also working on a longer-term project operation accelerate. We shared that at the Investor Day. It's changing procedures and digitizing substantially the front to back side of the bank, that is going very well. It's on track. It was multiyear, and that will help us with both efficiencies and customer set. So we've Zach has got us focused on consolidated 3 branches. We did a voluntary retirement program. We've done some restructuring and segments and some of the business units and support units during the course of the year. What he's referencing now with BPL is additive to a very healthy level of focus and activity on the expense management side so far this year.

    易卜拉欣,如果我可以補充的話,這是史蒂夫。該團隊還致力於加速長期項目運營。我們在投資者日分享了這一點。它正在改變流程,並對銀行的前後端進行大幅數字化,進展非常順利。一切步入正軌。這是多年的工作,這將有助於我們提高效率和客戶群。因此,扎克讓我們專注於整合 3 個分支機構。我們制定了自願退休計劃。在這一年中,我們進行了一些重組和細分,以及一些業務部門和支持部門。他現在提到的 BPL 是今年迄今為止費用管理方面非常健康的關注和活動水平的補充。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • Understood. And any updated thoughts? Steve, you talked about building capital, but at the same time, you've talked about fee revenue opportunities, doing some targeted M&A like you've done in the past. Any thoughts there? Is the opportunity set attractive for you to do anything?

    明白了。還有什麼更新的想法嗎?史蒂夫,你談到了建立資本,但同時,你也談到了費用收入機會,像你過去所做的那樣進行一些有針對性的併購。有什麼想法嗎?這個機會對你有吸引力嗎?

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Well, our focus, as you know, is always to grow the core of the business. We've got a lot of opportunity to do that in front of us. And as the regulatory expectations around capital and liquidity, et cetera, get established, I think we're going to be in a very strong position to (inaudible) that in an even more robust fashion. We're trying to get positioned for that now. the outlet, as you saw last year, there are a few businesses that were attractive. I suspect we'll find some additional ones at some point in the future. But we believe we've got a lot of opportunity at hand. There's nothing pressing in terms of pushing or needing to push for M&A now. And so we're very, very focused on driving the core.

    正如您所知,我們的重點始終是發展核心業務。我們面前有很多機會可以做到這一點。隨著圍繞資本和流動性等的監管預期的確立,我認為我們將以更加強勁的方式處於非常有利的地位(聽不清)。我們現在正在努力為此做好準備。正如您去年看到的那樣,有一些業務很有吸引力。我懷疑我們會在未來的某個時候找到一些額外的。但我們相信我們手頭有很多機會。現在在推動或需要推動併購方面沒有什麼緊迫的事情。因此,我們非常非常專注於驅動核心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

    我們的下一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯(Scott Siefers)和派珀·桑德勒(Piper Sandler)的對話。

  • Robert Scott Siefers - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Scott Siefers - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Steve or Zach, kind of conceptually, maybe when you think about the 40% cumm beta, maybe just a thought or 2 on the major puts and takes when you think about that being the right number for you all. You guys are in a very competitive market, but I think it's clear within like the last month or so, especially that the deposit flows are there. So I guess I'm just curious what you're seeing in terms of competitive dynamics? What sort of makes that the right number to land on it?

    史蒂夫或扎克,從概念上講,也許當你考慮40% cumm beta 時,當你認為這對你們所有人來說都是正確的數字時,也許只是對主要看跌期權和看跌期權的一兩個想法。你們正處於一個競爭非常激烈的市場,但我認為上個月左右的情況就很明顯了,特別是存款流量就在那裡。所以我想我只是好奇你在競爭動態方面看到了什麼?什麼樣的數字才是登陸它的正確數字?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • This is Zach, I'll take that one. We -- all of the trends and forecasts that we're creating, and as I noted in the prepared remarks, pretty rigorous multiple scenarios underlying that continue to corroborate that. So we feel like it's a good forecast. As always -- I always know the best forecast we've got, we'll share an update on if ever that pass. But our focus has been pretty stable around that level for a while now and the kind of underlying monthly trends continue to cooperate. But just double-clicking into the drivers, I would say, one, we're seeing continued modest rise in deposit costs, but at a decelerating rate just like you would expect it to be -- we saw a beta trend by 8% in Q1, 7% in Q2. It will be less than that we go to Q3, clearly, and then kind of topping out into Q4. So that's why we're just sort of seeing a declining trend all be increasing. The other thing is the mix shift from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing is occurring fairly well like we would expect it to in the cycle, and that lifeline is decelerating. And most of that mix shift has happened at this point. And we're already going to see the signs of that again kind of build up and corroborate to that 40%. On the competition side, it's a competitive environment. But to your point, the deposits are there. And I think it's what's encouraging is it's very rational. And I think that given decelerating loan growth throughout the industry and for us, that's the kind of escape valve and pressure, which is allowing us to manage pretty well here according to our plan. So overall, still in the right forecast.

    這是紮克,我選那個。我們——我們正在創造的所有趨勢和預測,正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣,相當嚴格的多種情景繼續證實了這一點。所以我們覺得這是一個很好的預測。一如既往——我總是知道我們得到的最佳預測,如果該預測通過,我們將分享最新情況。但我們的關注點在這個水平上已經相當穩定了一段時間,並且潛在的月度趨勢繼續配合。但只要雙擊驅動因素,我會說,一,我們看到存款成本持續小幅上升,但速度正在放緩,正如您所期望的那樣——我們看到貝塔趨勢增長了 8%第一季度增長7% ,第二季度增長7%。顯然,這將低於我們進入第三季度的水平,然後在第四季度達到頂峰。這就是為什麼我們看到下降的趨勢正在增加。另一件事是,從無息向有息的混合轉變正在發生,正如我們在周期中預期的那樣,而且生命線正在減速。大部分混合轉變都發生在此時。我們已經看到這種情況再次出現的跡象,並證實了 40%。從競爭的角度來看,這是一個競爭的環境。但就你而言,存款就在那裡。我認為令人鼓舞的是它非常理性。我認為,鑑於整個行業和我們的貸款增長放緩,這就是一種安全閥和壓力,這使我們能夠根據我們的計劃很好地管理。總體而言,預測仍然正確。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的埃里卡·納賈里安 (Erika Najarian)。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • My first question is actually a clarification one, your 40% to the data, the unfold deposits, correct?

    我的第一個問題實際上是一個澄清問題,你的 40% 的數據,展開存款,對嗎?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • That's correct.

    這是正確的。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Yes. Because a lot of your peers gave it on interest-bearing. So I just wanted to make sure that just touted that one, Scott was asking that question. And my real question is, I think the market really close sort of the expansion of the net interest income outlook. Could you tell us about how you're thinking about the elasticity of deposit license on the way down? I think to your point earlier, Zach, there are a lot of investors that are thinking about where you cut for next year. And they're wondering how much power do banks have price down if rates stay at a relatively high level versus what we've seen in a while?

    是的。因為你的很多同行都是有息的。所以我只是想確保斯科特剛才吹捧的那個問題是在問這個問題。我真正的問題是,我認為市場確實接近淨利息收入擴張的前景。您能否告訴我們您如何看待存款許可的彈性下降?扎克,我認為就你之前的觀點而言,有很多投資者正在考慮你明年的削減目標。他們想知道,如果利率保持在相對較高的水平(與我們一段時間以來所看到的相比),銀行有多少權力可以降低價格?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Yes. Terrific questions. Also in soft topics, it's got lots of mind share just as vigorously as we anticipated on the way up on the just as our growth on the way down. So very much planning watching. I think it will clearly be a function of what segments you're in, what segment you're looking at. On the commercial side, where betas are generally higher and stone bespoke and prior agreement between us and our clients on how we'll trend that will likewise trend low. I think we're pretty confident will drive that as a very similar measure to the way it went up. I think -- many of the other very rational price segments like that in the middle market and business banking will likewise trend down pretty fast as rates decline. Again, in some of the categories in which we've been growing in consumer, there are some time dimensions to them, which we'll have to manage at those times to lapse. But again, the playbook there is well trod, and I think you feel quite good about the ability to bring that down. The overall last on the consumer side will clearly be a function of what's going on in the economy at that point and the outlook for a forward at that point, but of the playbooks in history would tend to grow our ability to do that pretty well.

    是的。很棒的問題。同樣在軟性主題中,它得到了很多人的關注,就像我們在上漲時和下跌時預期的那樣積極。所以非常有計劃地觀看。我認為這顯然取決於您所處的細分市場以及您正在關注的細分市場。在商業方面,貝塔值通常較高,我們和客戶之間就我們將如何趨勢進行定制和事先達成協議,貝塔值同樣會趨低。我認為我們非常有信心將推動這一增長,作為一種與增長方式非常相似的衡量標準。我認為,隨著利率下降,許多其他非常理性的價格領域,例如中間市場和商業銀行業務,也將同樣迅速下降。同樣,在我們消費者增長的一些類別中,它們存在一些時間維度,我們必須在這些時間維度上進行管理。但同樣,那裡的劇本已經被很好地踐行了,我認為你對降低這一點的能力感到非常滿意。消費者方面的整體最後顯然將取決於當時的經濟狀況和未來的前景,但歷史上的劇本往往會提高我們做得很好的能力。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Got it. And just as a follow-up to that, if I may. You're holding a lot of cash. And obviously, there's not a lot of motivation to deploy that. Again, as we think about next year in the same scenario, you're still going to be earning a lot of your cash on your cash flow 0% risk weight if the Fed moderately. And I guess outside of better loan growth, Zach, what would be the factors for you to normalize, start normalizing that cash to a level that's more appropriate? Or do you feel like with all the liquidity rolls down the pipe, you might as well just hold it there for now since you're getting paid for it anyway?

    知道了。如果可以的話,作為後續行動。你持有大量現金。顯然,沒有太多的動力來部署它。同樣,正如我們在明年相同的情況下考慮的那樣,如果美聯儲采取溫和的政策,您仍將在現金流 0% 風險權重上賺取大量現金。我想除了更好的貸款增長之外,扎克,還有哪些因素可以讓你正常化,開始將現金正常化到更合適的水平?或者你是否覺得隨著所有的流動性滾滾而來,你最好暫時把它留在那裡,因為無論如何你都會得到報酬?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Yes. I think that the level that we're running at for cash right now is sort of around $8 billion to $9 billion is the right level for the company given the liquidity requirements. So I think we're generally at where we think is the right level. Always tuning at the margin for how we're incrementally funding and kind of tuning the short-term FHLB borrowings at the cash level. But I think for the most part, that cash level is right sized right now. I think within the securities portfolio broadly, we'll continue to see the trend of moderately lower duration sequentially as we've been doing, frankly, the last 3 quarters in a row. And just continuing to preference liquidity.

    是的。我認為,考慮到流動性需求,我們目前的現金水平約為 80 億至 90 億美元,對於公司來說是合適的水平。所以我認為我們總體上處於我們認為合適的水平。我們始終在邊際上調整增量融資方式,並在現金水平上調整 FHLB 的短期借款。但我認為在很大程度上,目前的現金水平是合適的。我認為,在廣泛的證券投資組合中,我們將繼續看到久期持續時間適度縮短的趨勢,坦率地說,正如我們連續三個季度所做的那樣。並且繼續偏愛流動性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

    (操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies 的電話。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Is that just a follow-up on your NII '24 comments. And if you talked about earning asset growth. I'm just wondering if your balance sheet has been elevated this quarter a good amount. And I guess are you expecting as you look out further that deposit growth will continue to carry the overall balance sheet side forward? And kind of, I guess, how do you think about the wholesale funding part of the equation as a balancing act on that?

    這只是您 NII '24 評論的後續行動嗎?如果你談到盈利資產增長。我只是想知道本季度您的資產負債表是否大幅上升。我想,當您進一步觀察時,您是否預計存款增長將繼續推動整體資產負債表的發展?我想,您如何看待等式中的批發融資部分作為平衡行為?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Yes. Terrific question. Broadly speaking, the answer is yes. So I believe that we will rate loan growth in line with deposit growth for the most parts. And I think that's what we'll see here in the back half of this year. That's my expectation what the trend is to 2024 as well. I tend to see a pretty stable but slightly lower the loan-to-deposit ratio here over the next couple of quarters. And just fundamentally match funding making sure we can one of those fundamental underlying factors that allows us to manage the deposit beta and the marginal margin that we're getting up on the loan as I noted earlier. So it's an important dynamic. The good thing, and I think we've talked about this in the past, is that we are coming to this cycle, and we're now operating, let's say, in 3 quarters of the innings and a pretty favorable position where we saw really attractive loan opportunities, we could, in fact, fund them with noncustomer sources of funding and increase loan-to-deposit ratio. But as not the default position for now. I think we're now, I think, getting loans and deposits growing at a pretty similar rate. It's quite healthy and a good balance for us.

    是的。很棒的問題。從廣義上講,答案是肯定的。因此,我相信我們將在很大程度上將貸款增長與存款增長保持一致。我認為這就是我們今年下半年將看到的情況。這也是我對 2024 年趨勢的預期。我傾向於看到未來幾個季度貸存比相當穩定但略有下降。正如我之前提到的,只要從根本上匹配資金,確保我們能夠成為這些基本因素之一,使我們能夠管理存款貝塔值和我們在貸款上獲得的邊際利潤。所以這是一個重要的動態。好的事情是,我想我們過去已經討論過這一點,那就是我們正在進入這個週期,我們現在正在運營,比方說,在每局的三個季度中,我們看到了一個非常有利的位置確實有吸引力的貸款機會,事實上,我們可以用非客戶資金來源為它們提供資金並提高貸存比。但目前還不是默認位置。我認為我們現在的貸款和存款增長速度非常相似。這對我們來說非常健康並且有很好的平衡。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And a follow-up, can you try to help us understand how the benefits from the security swaps look this quarter? And then as you go forward into next year, just your loan hedges, does that become a part of the benefit next year in terms of getting that NII starting to move the right way?

    好的。接下來,您能否幫助我們了解本季度證券互換的好處如何?然後,當你進入明年時,只是你的貸款對沖,這是否會成為明年讓 NII 開始向正確方向發展的收益的一部分?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Yes, it does. Great question, Ken. Let me elaborate on that. So up through the only part of Q3, inclusive of activities we've done in the first few weeks of this quarter, we've got around $29 billion of downgrade hedge protection through -- received fixed swaps it's around $21 billion, $22 billion. We've got some floor spreads, which pay off under downgrade scenarios and then a portfolio of collars, which will the option to enter into received fixed swaps in the future. And likely will, if rates continue to trend generally what they're expected to. So it's a pretty powerful portfolio that both extent now and even more than will be extent over the coming 6 to 12 months as we enter into those color-based RSG fixed loss. The impact, obviously, I mean, the challenge in hedging right now is that with an inverted yield curve and by me, with a fairly steep decline already forecasted, you've got some pretty dire downgrade scenarios to convince yourself that makes sense to incrementally entree things right now, given that they carry right now. What we are experiencing in the P&L at this moment is about 15 basis points of negative NIM drag from the receipt fix that we're already in. And that will go into essentially 0 by the end of 2024, if you follow out the forward yield curve scenarios. So that's 15 basis points of tailwind which we should see between now and the end of '24, fairly ratable clawback throughout that period.

    是的,它確實。好問題,肯。讓我詳細說明一下。因此,在第三季度的唯一一部分中,包括我們在本季度前幾週所做的活動,我們通過固定掉期獲得了約 290 億美元的降級對沖保護,大約為 210 億美元、220 億美元。我們有一些下限利差,可以在降級情況下獲得回報,然後是一個投資組合,這將是未來進入固定掉期的選擇。如果利率繼續按照預期趨勢發展,那麼這種情況很可能會發生。因此,這是一個非常強大的投資組合,當我們進入基於顏色的 RSG 固定損失時,它現在的範圍甚至超過未來 6 到 12 個月的範圍。顯然,我的意思是,目前對沖的挑戰是,在收益率曲線倒掛的情況下,在我看來,已經預測到了相當陡峭的下降,你會遇到一些非常可怕的降級場景,以說服自己逐步降級是有意義的。現在就點主菜吧,因為它們現在就可以攜帶。目前,我們在損益表中所經歷的情況是,由於我們已經進行的收據修復,淨息差產生了大約15 個基點的負拖累。如果按照遠期收益率計算,到2024 年底,這一數字將基本上變為 0曲線場景。因此,從現在到 24 年底,我們應該會看到 15 個基點的順風,整個時期相當可觀的回補。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • A couple of credit questions. First of all, congratulations -- congratulations, Rich, on your retirement. Done a great job, and I've enjoyed your perspective on these calls. Commercial real estate and consumer question. So on commercial real estate, how far ahead can you guys look in terms of identifying future issues? I know it's been a focus for you guys to tighten things up. But curious what you're doing now, and it obviously looks very clean, but you have a fair amount of reserves allocated to the business, and that's kind of why I ask.

    幾個信用問題。首先,恭喜你,里奇,恭喜你退休。幹得很好,我很喜歡你對這些電話會議的看法。商業地產和消費者問題。那麼,在商業地產方面,你們在確定未來問題方面能展望多遠?我知道你們一直關注的焦點是加強事情的處理。但很好奇你現在在做什麼,它顯然看起來很乾淨,但你有相當數量的儲備分配給業務,這就是我問的原因。

  • Richard A. Pohle - EVP & Chief Credit Officer

    Richard A. Pohle - EVP & Chief Credit Officer

  • Yes. We're looking -- we're focused primarily right now on the 2023 and 2024 impacts. And it's really hard to look much further beyond that. So we're doing quarterly portfolio reviews in office. We're touching the real estate book every month. I think we've probably gone through 90% of the loans over $5 million in that book at this point. But the focus is on '23 and '24 and managing what we can control, and that really relates to the maturities. And then particularly with respect to office, the lease rollovers that might be impacting cash flow in this year and next. So that's the primary focus. Beyond that, it's tough. You mentioned the 9% reserve. We've got against softness. We've got a 3.4% reserver against overall prebook. We feel for what we know right now, both of those are adequate, and we'll continue to look at those on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

    是的。我們現在主要關注 2023 年和 2024 年的影響。除此之外,真的很難看得更遠。所以我們在辦公室進行季度投資組合審查。我們每個月都會接觸房地產書籍。我認為此時我們可能已經處理了該書中 90% 超過 500 萬美元的貸款。但重點是 23 和 24 以及管理我們可以控制的事情,這確實與期限有關。然後,特別是在辦公室方面,租賃展期可能會影響今年和明年的現金流。所以這是主要焦點。除此之外,這很困難。你提到了9%的準備金。我們反對軟弱。我們對整體預售預訂收取了 3.4% 的預訂費。我們認為,就目前所知,這兩者都足夠了,我們將繼續逐季度地研究這些情況。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Jon, Rich is also with the team getting long rebalanced wherever there appear to be issues that are proactive efforts to try to get those addressed paydowns, (inaudible) Almost of the efforts -- the primary focus is '23 '24. But there's also a long view full view of the portfolio over the next decade and other related issues, all of which are -- we're actively managing. We've been doing that for over a year and trying to stay well ahead of any issues may occur at this point to put in really good shape.

    Jon, Rich 也與團隊一起進行長期的重新平衡,只要出現問題,就會積極主動地努力解決這些問題,(聽不清)幾乎所有的努力 - 主要焦點是“23 '24”。但對未來十年的投資組合和其他相關問題也有一個長遠的全面了解,所有這些都是我們正在積極管理的。我們已經這樣做了一年多,並努力在此時可能出現的任何問題之前保持良好狀態。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • It seems that way. Okay. And then on consumer, I look at this every quarter, just your nonaccruals and charge-offs, and it's just kind of -- it's nothing really. Maybe it goes to the soft landing comments, but you look at RV marine consumer categories, delinquencies really haven't budged. Are you seeing anything in consumer health that bothers you at all because it's just -- these numbers are really, really good. .

    看來是這樣。好的。然後在消費者方面,我每個季度都會查看這一點,只是您的非應計費用和沖銷,這只是——實際上沒什麼。也許這與軟著陸評論有關,但你看看房車海洋消費類別,拖欠率確實沒有改變。您是否看到消費者健康方面的任何事情讓您感到困擾,因為這些數字真的非常非常好。 。

  • Richard A. Pohle - EVP & Chief Credit Officer

    Richard A. Pohle - EVP & Chief Credit Officer

  • No, the numbers are really good. And I think it goes to the client selection and just the focus that we've got on prime and super prime. If you look across the entire consumer spectrum. There's really nothing in there that would lead you to believe that we're going to have anything more than just a gradual return what might be more normalized levels of charge-offs. Because right now, to your point, they're running extremely low. The only area that I would point out that's a little bit relatively higher stress than the rest of the book is and that's because of the floating rate nature of that portfolio. So it's going to lead to a little higher level of delinquencies than you might see across the book, but the analysis that we've done from a vintage standpoint, on that book show that we're in the 55% to 60% loan-to-value range. So even though we might see higher levels of delinquency. We don't think the losses will follow.

    不,這些數字確實很好。我認為這取決於客戶的選擇以及我們對優質和超級優質的關注。如果你縱觀整個消費者群體。實際上,沒有什麼能讓你相信我們會得到比逐步回報(可能是更正常化的沖銷水平)更多的東西。因為現在,就你而言,它們的運行速度非常低。我要指出的唯一一個比本書其他部分壓力相對較高的領域是,這是因為該投資組合的浮動利率性質。因此,這將導致拖欠率比您在整本書中看到的要高一些,但我們從復古的角度對該書所做的分析表明,我們處於 55% 至 60% 的貸款中——到值範圍。因此,儘管我們可能會看到更高程度的犯罪。我們認為損失不會隨之而來。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Housing markets are generally tight where we are, John. So if someone has -- and unemployment is very low. So if someone has an issue, the best resolution is to sell a property, unlike what we might have seen in '08, '09 or prior (inaudible).

    我們這裡的房地產市場普遍緊張,約翰。因此,如果有人這樣做,那麼失業率就會非常低。因此,如果有人遇到問題,最好的解決辦法是出售房產,這與我們在 08 年、09 年或更早時期看到的情況不同(聽不清)。

  • Just to give Rich a little credit here and recognition. We've been at an effort to outperform our peers for over a decade with this aggregate moderate to low risk profile, and he's been very, very disciplined about that. And we expect to outperform through the cycle. We've been sharing that all along. At this point, really, really good in that regard and a tribute to all my comments especially Rich and his leadership.

    只是為了給 Rich 一點信任和認可。十多年來,我們一直在努力以中低風險狀況超越同行,他對此非常非常自律。我們期望在整個週期中表現優於大盤。我們一直在分享這一點。在這一點上,在這方面真的非常好,並向我所有的評論尤其是里奇和他的領導致敬。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Yes, I agree. Steve, I was thinking you could give them a fishing boat or an RV out of the foreclosure pull there's anything to give.

    是的我同意。史蒂夫,我想你可以給他們一艘漁船或一輛房車,以擺脫喪失抵押品贖回權的束縛,有什麼可以給的。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • We just don't have any other assets. On my lunch at some at posters. We pull those out.

    我們只是沒有任何其他資產。我在一些海報上吃午餐。我們把它們拉出來。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Just to clean up for you, Zach. The $60 million to $50 million on the Capstone, Torana. What drove that? I know it's small $10 million, but what happened there?

    只是為了幫你打掃衛生,扎克。 Torana 的 Capstone 項目耗資 6000 萬至 5000 萬美元。是什麼推動了這一點?我知道這只是 1000 萬美元,但是那裡發生了什麼?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • Yes. And Julie, that's reflective of -- the cost that we see in that previous $60 million was mainly Capstone, and has a factor of production and revenues that flow through into compensation expense. And so when capital markets revenues were a bit softer in the second quarter, our outlook somewhat lower than was originally budgeted into the back half of the year, so proud, which is less flow through into less cost. That's basically it.

    是的。朱莉,這反映了我們在之前的 6000 萬美元中看到的成本主要是 Capstone,並且有一個生產要素和收入流入補償費用。因此,當第二季度資本市場收入稍微疲軟時,我們的前景略低於最初預算的下半年,因此感到自豪,這是因為流量減少,成本減少。基本上就是這樣。

  • Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Jon Glenn Arfstrom - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Okay. And then the $30 million FDIC, that's all in the third quarter. Is that correct?

    好的。然後是第三季度的 3000 萬美元 FDIC。那是對的嗎?

  • Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

    Zachary J. Wasserman - CFO & Senior EVP

  • So let me clarify that it's really important one. That FDIC expense that we talked about in that guidance is the 2 basis points higher assessment that is being assessed across the industry and that was known late last year, and it's coming through every quarter. It's not the special assessment that's still being discussed.

    因此,讓我澄清一下,這非常重要。我們在該指南中討論的 FDIC 費用是整個行業正在評估的 2 個基點的高評估,去年年底就已經知道這一點,並且每個季度都會進行評估。仍在討論的不是特別評估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Steinour for any final comments.

    女士們先生們,我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給斯坦努爾先生,徵求最後的意見。

  • Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

    Stephen D. Steinour - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Well, thank you very much for joining us today. We're very pleased with the second quarter results as we dynamically manage through this unique environment. As you heard, we're very well positioned for times such as these with strong credit quality, improving capital ratios and robust liquidity. The deposit, both in particular in strangler nature has served us very, very well as head of our efforts to provide customer service and generate great satisfaction over the years. And we have a team of disciplined operators, and we are executing our strategy that we outlined last year at our Investor Day, which provides are driving value for our shareholders. And just as a reminder, the Board of Executives and our colleagues were all top 10 shareholders collectively. So that reflects a strong alignment with our shareholders, and I think you're seeing the benefits of that through our results. So thank you for your support and interest in Huntington, and have a great day. .

    非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們對第二季度的業績非常滿意,因為我們在這個獨特的環境中進行動態管理。正如您所聽到的,我們在信用質量良好、資本比率改善和流動性強勁的時期處於有利地位。這筆存款,特別是在扼殺性質方面,為我們提供了非常非常好的幫助,多年來我們努力提供客戶服務並產生了極大的滿意度。我們擁有一支紀律嚴明的運營團隊,我們正在執行去年在投資者日概述的戰略,該戰略為我們的股東帶來了推動價值。提醒一下,執行董事會和我們的同事都是前 10 名股東。因此,這反映了我們與股東的緊密合作,我認為您已經通過我們的業績看到了這樣做的好處。感謝您對亨廷頓的支持和興趣,祝您有美好的一天。 。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。