Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Huntington Bancshares Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加 Huntington Bancshares 第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。問答環節將在正式演講之後進行。 （操作員說明）。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tim Sedabres, Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給東道主投資者關係總監 Tim Sedabres。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and good morning. Copies of the slides we will be reviewing today can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available during about 1 hour from the close of the call. Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President and CEO; and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer. Rich Pohle, Chief Credit Officer; and Brendan Lawlor, Deputy Chief Credit Officer, will join us for the Q&A.

謝謝你，接線生。歡迎大家，早安。我們今天要審查的幻燈片副本可以在我們網站 www.huntington.com 的投資者關係部分找到。謹此提醒，本次通話正在錄音，通話結束後約 1 小時內可進行重播。今天我們的主講人是董事長、總裁兼執行長 Steve Steinour；和財務長 Zach Wasserman。 Rich Pohle，首席信貸官；副首席信貸官 Brendan Lawlor 將參加我們的問答。

Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statements disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. With that, let me now turn it over to Steve.

收益文件（包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計原則資訊）可在我們網站的投資者關係部分取得。現在讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Thank you for joining the call today. We're pleased to announce our third quarter results, which Zach will detail later. Our approach to both our colleagues and customers continues to be grounded in our purpose. Our colleagues again demonstrated that we make people's lives better, help businesses thrive and strengthen the communities we serve.

謝謝，蒂姆。大家早安，歡迎光臨。感謝您今天加入通話。我們很高興宣布第三季的業績，扎克稍後將詳細介紹。我們對同事和客戶的態度仍然以我們的目標為基礎。我們的同事再次證明，我們讓人們的生活更美好，幫助企業蓬勃發展，並加強我們所服務的社區。

Now on to Slide 4. There are 5 key messages we want to leave you with today. First, Huntington is extraordinarily well positioned to manage through the evolving landscape for banks. The near-term environment includes higher for longer interest rates and uncertain economic outlook expected new capital regulations as well as heightened regulatory requirements. Huntington operates in this dynamic period from a position of substantial strength. Our balance sheet and risk profile were intentionally built over more than a decade, explicitly for these times. Our market position, digital leadership and momentum in core growth strategies put us in the top of the peer set. We intend to lean into this position of strength to drive incremental growth through existing and new capabilities.

現在轉到投影片 4。今天我們想向您傳達 5 個關鍵訊息。首先，亨廷頓處於非常有利的位置，能夠應對銀行不斷變化的格局。近期環境包括長期利率上升、經濟前景不確定、新資本監管以及監管要求的提高。亨廷頓在這個充滿活力的時期發揮著強大的作用。我們的資產負債表和風險狀況是十多年來特意建立的，專門針對這個時代。我們的市場地位、數位化領導力以及核心成長策略的動力使我們在同業中處於領先地位。我們打算利用這項優勢，透過現有的和新的能力推動增量成長。

Second, we've managed top quartile CET1 inclusive of AOCI. We will continue to drive additional capital expansion for the remainder of this year and over the course of 2024.

其次，我們的 CET1 成績達到了前四分之一，其中包括 AOCI。我們將在今年剩餘時間和 2024 年繼續推動額外的資本擴張。

Third, we benefit from a cultivated granular deposit franchise and have delivered consistent core deposit growth. Our balanced deposit base forms the foundation of our robust liquidity framework and has been a driving factor in our well-managed beta over the rate cycle to date.

第三，我們受益於精心培育的顆粒存款特許經營權，並實現了核心存款的持續成長。我們平衡的存款基礎構成了我們穩健的流動性框架的基礎，也是迄今為止我們在利率週期內管理良好的貝塔值的驅動因素。

Fourth, credit quality remains strong across our portfolios, driven by our disciplined customer selection, underwriting and rigorous portfolio management. This approach is unwavering, starting with our tone at the top as we maintain our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite.

第四，在我們嚴格的客戶選擇、承保和嚴格的投資組合管理的推動下，我們的投資組合的信用品質仍然強勁。這種方法是堅定不移的，從我們最高層的基調開始，我們維持整體中度至低度的風險偏好。

Finally, we remain intently focused on our core strategy. We are executing with discipline while expanding with existing and new capabilities to support our long-term growth. And very importantly, we are remaining steadfast in our commitment to drive operating efficiency over time. With continued execution of proactive expense management programs, we expect the level of uncertainty in the near term and some level of higher expenses to manage through the realities of the current operating environment. However, these investments will also be accompanied by sustained revenue growth and the net result will be a Huntington that continues to be a strong regional bank with significant growth opportunities ahead.

最後，我們仍然專注於我們的核心策略。我們嚴格執行，同時利用現有和新的能力進行擴展，以支持我們的長期成長。非常重要的是，我們始終堅定不移地致力於提高營運效率。隨著積極主動的費用管理計劃的持續執行，我們預計短期內的不確定性水平和一定程度的較高費用可以透過當前營運環境的現實進行管理。然而，這些投資也將伴隨著持續的收入成長，最終結果將是亨廷頓繼續成為一家強大的區域銀行，並擁有巨大的成長機會。

I will move us on to Slide 5 to further illustrate our position of strength. Our adjusted CET1 ratio is strong and near the top of the peer group. We intend to drive this ratio higher throughout this year and 2024. This plan extends our position of strength, supports continued execution of core growth strategies and puts us well ahead of the proposed Basel III end game and other requirements. Deposit growth has also outperformed our peers by nearly 10 percentage points since the end of 2021. We've built one of the most granular deposit bases with a leading insured deposit percentage and we continue to drive the expansion of primary bank customer relationships. Our liquidity is best-in-class for coverage of uninsured deposits, representing nearly twice the level of peers, and we already meet the liquidity coverage ratio on an unmodified basis. Credit metrics are also a differentiator for Huntington with top quartile net charge-offs compared to peers and our credit reserves are top tier.

我將繼續看投影片 5，以進一步說明我們的優勢地位。我們調整後的 CET1 比率很高，接近同行的最高水準。我們打算在今年和 2024 年提高這一比率。該計劃擴大了我們的實力地位，支持核心成長策略的持續執行，並使我們遠遠領先於擬議的巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲和其他要求。自 2021 年底以來，存款成長也比同業高出近 10 個百分點。我們已經建立了最精細的存款基礎之一，保險存款比例領先，並繼續推動主要銀行客戶關係的擴展。我們的流動性在未保險存款覆蓋率方面是同類最佳的，幾乎是同行水準的兩倍，並且我們已經達到了未經修改的流動性覆蓋率。信用指標也是亨廷頓的一個與眾不同之處，與同行相比，我們的淨沖銷額位居前四分之一，而且我們的信用儲備也處於一流水平。

Our management team has a long track record of disciplined execution. For example, we were recently named the #1 SBA lender nationally for the sixth consecutive year, and we continue to expand the reach of this business and our support of access to capital for small businesses. Interest rates continue on a path towards the higher for longer scenario, which we've been anticipating for some time. As rates remain higher, the potential for economic activity to be negatively impacted has increased. However, thus far in the cycle, overall, our customers are effectively managing through it. We remain highly vigilant and are proactively managing all loan portfolios. Our top-tier credit reserves and expanding capital support our approach to be front-footed to take advantage of opportunities to win new customers and grow our businesses.

我們的管理團隊有著長期嚴格執行的記錄。例如，我們最近連續第六年被評為全國排名第一的 SBA 貸款機構，並且我們將繼續擴大該業務的範圍以及對小型企業獲得資本的支持。利率將在更長時間內繼續走高，這是我們已經預料到的一段時間了。隨著利率維持在較高水平，經濟活動受到負面影響的可能性增加。然而，到目前為止，在這個週期中，總體而言，我們的客戶正在有效地管理它。我們保持高度警惕，並積極管理所有貸款組合。我們的頂級信貸儲備和不斷擴大的資本支持我們搶佔先機，利用機會贏得新客戶並發展我們的業務。

Zach, over to you to provide more detail on our financial performance.

扎克，請您提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Slide 6 provides highlights of our third quarter results. We reported GAAP earnings per common share of $0.35 and adjusted EPS of $0.36. The quarter included $15 million of notable items, which impacted EPS by $0.01 per common share. Return on tangible common equity, or ROTCE, came in at 19.5% for the quarter. Adjusted for notable items, ROTCE was 20%. Further adjusting for AOCI, underlying ROTCE was 15.3%. Average deposits grew during the quarter, increasing by $2.6 billion or 1.8%. Loan balances decreased by $561 million or 0.5% from Q2 driven both by seasonality and our continued optimization.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家早安。幻燈片 6 提供了我們第三季業績的亮點。我們報告的 GAAP 普通股收益為 0.35 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.36 美元。該季度包括 1500 萬美元的顯著項目，這對每股普通股每股收益造成 0.01 美元的影響。本季有形普通股回報率 (ROTCE) 為 19.5%。在值得注意的項目進行調整後，ROTCE 為 20%。進一步調整 AOCI，基礎 ROTCE 為 15.3%。本季平均存款成長 26 億美元，成長 1.8%。受季節性因素和我們持續優化的推動，貸款餘額較第二季減少 5.61 億美元，即 0.5%。

Net interest income on a dollar basis expanded quarter-over-quarter, driven by a rising net interest margin. We continue to proactively manage expenses and have begun a new set of incremental actions in the third quarter, including branch consolidation, staffing efficiencies and corporate real estate consolidations. These actions coupled with our ongoing long-term efficiency programs as well as the measures we implemented in Q1 of this year will help us drive rigorous baseline expense efficiency while sustaining capacity for investments in the franchise. Credit quality remains strong with net charge-offs of 24 basis points and allowance for credit losses of 1.96%. Return on capital was robust driving capital accretion with reported CET1 now above 10%.

在淨利差上升的推動下，以美元計算的淨利息收入環比擴大。我們繼續積極管理開支，並在第三季開始了一系列新的增量行動，包括分支機構整合、人員配置效率和企業房地產整合。這些行動加上我們正在進行的長期效率計劃以及我們在今年第一季實施的措施，將幫助我們推動嚴格的基準費用效率，同時維持特許經營的投資能力。信貸品質依然強勁，淨沖銷為 24 個基點，信貸損失準備金為 1.96%。資本回報率強勁，推動資本增值，報告的 CET1 目前已超過 10%。

Turning to Slide 7. As I noted, average loan balances decreased 0.5% from Q2, driven primarily by lower commercial loan balances, which decreased by $1.2 billion or 1.7% from the prior quarter. On a year-over-year basis, average loans increased 3.3%, reflective of our intentional optimization efforts. Primary components of the commercial loan change included CRE balances, which declined by $387 million, driven by paydowns. Distribution finance decreased $434 million due to normal seasonality with lower dealer inventory levels in the third quarter before the expected inventory build in the fourth quarter. Asset Finance decreased by $271 million, Auto Floorplan increased by $122 million. All other commercial categories net decreased as we continue to drive optimization towards the highest returns.

轉向投影片 7。正如我所指出的，平均貸款餘額比第二季度下降了 0.5%，這主要是由於商業貸款餘額下降，比上一季減少了 12 億美元，即 1.7%。平均貸款年增 3.3%，反映了我們有意優化的努力。商業貸款變化的主要組成部分包括商業房地產餘額，由於還款，該餘額減少了 3.87 億美元。由於正常季節性因素，在第四季度預期庫存增加之前，第三季經銷商庫存水準較低，分銷融資減少了 4.34 億美元。資產融資減少 2.71 億美元，汽車佈局增加 1.22 億美元。隨著我們繼續推動優化以獲得最高回報，所有其他商業類別均出現淨下降。

In Consumer, growth was led by residential mortgage and RV/Marine, while auto loan balances declined for the quarter. Turning to Slide 8. As noted, we continued to deliver consistent deposit growth in the quarter. Average deposits increased by $2.6 billion or 1.8% from the prior quarter. Turning to Slide 9. We saw sustained growth in deposit balances in the third quarter, including sequential increases during July, August and September. Continuing the trend we have seen previously. Importantly, core deposits represented the entirety of the deposit growth for the quarter, with broker deposits declining quarter-over-quarter.

在消費者領域，住宅抵押貸款和房車/船舶帶動了成長，而本季汽車貸款餘額則有所下降。轉向投影片 8。如前所述，我們在本季繼續實現存款的持續成長。平均存款較上一季增加 26 億美元，成長 1.8%。轉向投影片 9。我們看到第三季存款餘額持續成長，其中 7 月、8 月和 9 月連續成長。延續我們之前看到的趨勢。重要的是，核心存款代表了本季存款成長的全部，而經紀商存款則較上季下降。

Turning to Slide 10. Noninterest-bearing mix shift continues to track closely to our forecast with the deceleration of sequential changes that we would expect at this point in the rate cycle. The noninterest-bearing percentage decreased by 120 basis points from the second quarter, and we continue to expect this mix shift to moderate and stabilize during 2024.

轉向投影片 10。無息組合轉變繼續密切追蹤我們的預測，我們預計在利率週期的此時點，連續變化將減速。無息百分比較第二季下降 120 個基點，我們繼續預期這種結構在 2024 年將趨於溫和並趨於穩定。

On to Slide 11. For the quarter, net interest income increased by $22 million or 1.6% to $1.379 billion, driven by expanded net interest margin. We continued to benefit from our asset sensitivity and the expansion of margins that has occurred throughout the cycle, with net interest income growing at 9% CAGR over the past 2 years. Reconciling the change in NIM from Q2, we saw an increase of 9 basis points on a GAAP basis and an increase of 10 basis points on a core basis, excluding accretion. The drivers of the higher NIM quarter-over-quarter were higher spread net of free funds, lower Fed cash balances versus the prior quarter and higher FHLB stock dividends in the quarter. Interest rates rose during the quarter, particularly at the longer end. And as we expected, that drove a net benefit to NIM.

請參閱投影片 11。在淨利差擴大的推動下，本季淨利息收入增加了 2,200 萬美元，即 1.6%，達到 13.79 億美元。我們繼續受益於整個週期中的資產敏感性和利潤率擴張，過去兩年淨利息收入複合年增長率為 9%。與第二季相比，淨利差的變化顯示，我們發現以 GAAP 計算增加了 9 個基點，在核心基礎上增加了 10 個基點（不含增值）。淨利差較上季上升的驅動因素是扣除自由資金後利差較高、聯準會現金餘額較上一季較低以及本季 FHLB 股票股利較高。本季利率上升，尤其是長期利率。正如我們預期的那樣，這為 NIM 帶來了淨收益。

In addition, our optimization efforts across both loan growth and funding mix continue to perform very well. These factors resulted in the margin coming in better than we had expected when we shared our outlook in July. We continue to analyze multiple potential interest rate scenarios. The basis of our planning and guidance continues to be a central set of those scenarios that is bounded on the low end by the forward yield curve. And at the high end, by a scenario that projects rates they higher for longer. The higher for longer scenario today assumes 1 additional rate increase in 2023, flat Fed funds through October of '24 and ends 2024 approximately 75 basis points higher than the forward curve.

此外，我們在貸款成長和融資組合方面的最佳化工作持續表現良好。這些因素導致利潤率優於我們在 7 月分享展望時的預期。我們繼續分析多種潛在的利率情境。我們的規劃和指導的基礎仍然是這些情境的核心集合，這些情境以遠期殖利率曲線的低端為界。在高端，根據預測，他們的利率會持續更長的時間。今天的長期情境較高，假設 2023 年額外升息 1 次，聯邦基金在 2024 年 10 月之前持平，到 2024 年底比遠期曲線高出約 75 個基點。

With the move in rates higher, we now anticipate net interest margin for the fourth quarter to be around 305 to 310 basis points. This is 5 to 10 basis points higher than the level we shared previously. Looking further out, our modeling continues to indicate 2024 NIM trending flat to higher from the Q4 '23 end point.

隨著利率走高，我們目前預計第四季的淨利差將在 305 至 310 個基點左右。這比我們之前分享的水平高出 5 到 10 個基點。展望未來，我們的模型繼續顯示 2024 年的淨利差從 23 年第 4 季的終點開始持平到走高。

Turning to Slide 12. Our cumulative deposit beta through Q3 was 37%, up 5 percentage points from the prior quarter, tracking closely to our expectations. Sequential increases in beta are slowing quarter-over-quarter as we have forecasted as the interest rate cycle nears or hits its peak. As we have noted in the past, where beta ultimately tops out will be a function of the end game for the rate cycle in terms of the level and timing of the peak, the duration of any extended pause before a decrease. Given the outlooks for possibly a higher peak and very likely a more extended pause than was the case 3 months ago, our current outlook for deposit beta is to trend a few percentage points higher than our prior guidance of 40%. We will have to see how the rate environment plays out into 2024 to know with certainty. What is critical in our view is to ensure we continue to manage both deposit and loan pricing exceptionally rigorously, drive asset yields higher, deliver solid incremental returns and deliver a better overall NIM from the higher for longer rate environment as a result.

轉向投影片 12。第三季我們的累積存款貝塔值為 37%，比上一季上升 5 個百分點，與我們的預期非常接近。正如我們所預測的，隨著利率週期接近或達到峰值，貝塔值的連續成長逐季放緩。正如我們過去所指出的，貝塔最終達到頂峰的位置將是利率週期最終遊戲的函數，包括峰值的水平和時間、下降之前任何延長暫停的持續時間。考慮到與 3 個月前相比，高峰可能會更高，暫停時間很可能會更長，我們目前對存款貝塔值的展望將比我們之前 40% 的指導值高出幾個百分點。我們必須看看 2024 年利率環境會如何發展才能確定。我們認為，關鍵是要確保我們繼續極其嚴格地管理存款和貸款定價，提高資產收益率，實現穩健的增量回報，並在較高、較長的利率環境中實現更好的整體淨利差。

Turning to Slide 13 and expanding on my point on loan yields. The construct of our balance sheet is approximately half fully variable rate, 10% indirect auto, which is a shorter approximately 2-year duration fixed product, 10% in arms with a 5-year duration and the remainder of approximately 30% is longer durated fixed. This mix contributes to the asset sensitivity of our overall balance sheet and has helped us to benefit significantly from the current rate cycle. We are seeing solid increases in fixed asset portfolio yields. Given the higher for longer rate environment, we expect to continue to benefit from this fixed asset repricing going forward, supporting the higher NIM outlook.

轉向投影片 13，並擴展我對貸款收益率的觀點。我們的資產負債表的結構大約有一半是完全可變利率，10%是間接汽車，這是一種較短的約2年期限的固定產品，10%是期限為5年的武器，其餘的約30%是較長期限的產品固定的。這種組合有助於提高我們整體資產負債表的資產敏感性，並幫助我們從當前的利率週期中獲益匪淺。我們看到固定資產投資組合收益率穩定成長。鑑於長期利率較高的環境，我們預計未來將繼續受益於固定資產重新定價，並支持較高的淨利差前景。

Turning to Slide 14. Our level of cash and securities was down slightly from the prior quarter as we lowered some of the elevated cash we've been holding in Q2. During Q3, we did not reinvest securities cash flows and the securities balance moved modestly lower as proceeds were held in cash, given the attractive short-term rates. We're managing the duration of the portfolio lower, continuing our management approach since 2021.

轉向投影片 14。我們的現金和證券水準較上一季略有下降，因為我們減少了第二季持有的部分高額現金。在第三季度，我們沒有對證券現金流進行再投資，鑑於短期利率具有吸引力，由於收益以現金形式持有，證券餘額略有下降。我們正在降低投資組合的久期，自 2021 年以來繼續採用我們的管理方法。

Turning to Slide 15. Our contingent and available liquidity continues to be robust at $91 billion and has grown quarter-over-quarter. At quarter end, this pool of available liquidity represented 204% of total uninsured deposits, a peer-leading coverage.

轉向幻燈片 15。我們的或有和可用流動性繼續保持強勁，達到 910 億美元，並且逐季增長。截至季末，此可用流動性池佔未保險存款總額的 204%，覆蓋範圍為同業領先水準。

Turning to Slide 16. We continue to be dynamic in adding to our hedging program during the quarter. Our objectives remain twofold, to protect capital in up rate scenarios and to protect NIM in down rate scenarios. The most substantive increase was in addition to our forward starting pay fix swaption strategy, which increased by $5.9 billion during the quarter to $15.5 billion total. This program is intended to protect capital from tail risk in substantive up rate scenarios and once again benefited us as rates moved higher in the quarter. We also added $2 billion in collars to support our NIM against longer-term down rate scenarios.

轉向投影片 16。本季我們繼續積極增加對沖計畫。我們的目標仍然是雙重的，在利率上升的情況下保護資本，在利率下降的情況下保護淨利差。最實質的成長是除了我們的遠期起薪固定互換策略之外，該策略在本季度增加了 59 億美元，總計 155 億美元。該計劃旨在保護資本免受大幅加息情況下的尾部風險，隨著本季利率走高，我們再次受益。我們還增加了 20 億美元的上限，以支持我們的淨利差，以應對長期利率下調的情況。

Moving on to Slide 17. GAAP noninterest income increased by $14 million or 2.8% to $509 million for the third quarter. Excluding the mark-to-market on the pay fix swaptions, fees were relatively stable quarter-over-quarter. On an underlying basis compared to the second quarter, we saw increases in deposit service charges, including higher payment-related treasury management fees. This growth was largely offset by lower capital markets fees.

繼續看投影片 17。第三季 GAAP 非利息收入增加 1,400 萬美元，成長 2.8%，達到 5.09 億美元。不包括以市值計價的薪酬固定掉期選擇權，費用較上季相對穩定。與第二季相比，我們看到存款服務費增加，包括與支付相關的資金管理費上漲。這一增長在很大程度上被資本市場費用的降低所抵消。

Moving on to Slide 18. We're seeing encouraging and sustained underlying trends across our 3 areas of strategic focus for fee revenue growth. Capital Markets, which has grown by a 19% CAGR over the past 6 years, benefits from a broad set of capabilities bolstered by Capstone. While 2023 has certainly been a challenging environment for capital markets activities in both advisory and several credit-driven products, forward pipelines within advisory are solid and we continue to foresee this as a primary contributor to fee revenue growth over the moderate term. Our payments businesses represent one of the biggest opportunities for both relationship deepening and revenue growth across both treasury management and card categories.

繼續看投影片 18。我們在費用收入成長的 3 個策略重點領域看到了令人鼓舞且持續的基本趨勢。資本市場在過去 6 年中以 19% 的複合年增長率成長，受益於 Capstone 提供的廣泛能力。儘管 2023 年對於諮詢和多種信貸驅動產品的資本市場活動來說無疑是一個充滿挑戰的環境，但諮詢領域的遠期管道是穩固的，我們繼續預計這是中期收費收入增長的主要貢獻者。我們的支付業務是財資管理和銀行卡類別深化關係和收入成長的最大機會之一。

In Wealth Management, we see a great opportunity to increase the penetration of the offering across our customers, leveraging our #1 ranking for trust as we grow advisory relationships and drive higher managed assets with recurring revenue streams.

在財富管理領域，我們看到了提高產品在客戶中的滲透率的絕佳機會，隨著我們發展諮詢關係並透過經常性收入流推動更高的管理資產，利用我們的第一名信任排名。

Moving on to Slide 19 on expenses. GAAP noninterest expense increased by $40 million and underlying core expenses increased by $25 million. As I mentioned, we incurred $15 million of notable item expenses related to the staffing efficiency program and corporate real estate consolidations. Excluding these items, core expense growth compared to the prior quarter was driven by higher personnel, occupancy, professional services and a set of smaller items within all other expenses. We have taken proactive actions throughout the year to support the low level of core underlying expense growth we have delivered.

前往關於費用的幻燈片 19。 GAAP 非利息支出增加了 4,000 萬美元，基本核心支出增加了 2,500 萬美元。正如我所提到的，我們發生了 1500 萬美元的與員工效率計劃和企業房地產整合相關的顯著項目費用。排除這些項目，與上一季相比，核心費用的成長是由人員、入住率、專業服務和所有其他費用中一系列較小項目的增加所推動的。我們全年採取積極行動，以支持我們實現的低水準核心基礎費用成長。

In the first half of the year, we executed on the voluntary retirement program, organizational realignment moving from 4 revenue segments to 2 and 31 branch consolidations. Now in the third quarter, we're taking another set of incremental actions. We are accelerating the implementation of our business process offshoring program, and we're creating efficiencies throughout the organization with the goal of prioritizing resources toward the largest growth opportunities in the near term. We're also driving incremental saves in our corporate real estate footprint as well as implementing another set of branch consolidations with 34 planned closures early next year. These actions demonstrate our commitment to disciplined expense management and will support the continued investment into critical areas of the company to drive long-term value.

上半年，我們實施了自願退休計劃，組織結構調整，從4個收入部門合併到2個和31個分支機構。現在在第三季度，我們正在採取另一組增量行動。我們正在加速實施業務流程離岸計劃，並在整個組織內提高效率，目標是將資源優先用於近期最大的成長機會。我們也正在推動公司房地產足跡的增量節省，並實施另一組分公司整合，計畫明年初關閉 34 家分公司。這些行動體現了我們對嚴格費用管理的承諾，並將支持對公司關鍵領域的持續投資，以推動長期價值。

As we manage expenses, we're balancing both short-term investment and revenue growth with the longer-term opportunities we know are in front of us.

當我們管理開支時，我們會平衡短期投資和收入成長與我們所知的長期機會。

Slide 20 recaps our capital position. Reported common equity Tier 1 increased to 10.1% and has increased sequentially for 4 quarters. OCI impacts to common equity Tier 1 resulted in an adjusted CET1 ratio of 8%. Our capital management strategy will result in expanding capital while maintaining our top priority to fund high-return loan growth. We're actively managing adjusted CET1 inclusive of AOCI and expect to drive that ratio higher over the course of 2024.

投影片 20 回顧了我們的資本狀況。報告的一級普通股權益增加至 10.1%，並已連續 4 個季度增加。 OCI 對普通股一級普通股的影響導致調整後的 CET1 比率為 8%。我們的資本管理策略將擴大資本，同時維持我們的首要任務，為高回報貸款成長提供資金。我們正在積極管理調整後的 CET1（包括 AOCI），並預計在 2024 年期間提高該比率。

On Slide 21, credit quality continues to perform very well, with normalization of metrics consistent with our expectations. As mentioned, net charge-offs were 24 basis points for the quarter and while higher than last quarter by 8 basis points, are tracking to our guidance for full year net charge-offs between 20 and 30 basis points. This level continues to be at the low end of our target through the cycle range for net charge-offs of 25 to 45 basis points. As previously guided, given ongoing normalization, nonperforming assets increased from the previous quarter and the criticized asset ratio increased with risk rating changes within commercial real estate being the largest component. Allowance for credit losses is higher by 3 basis points to 1.96% of total loans, and our ACL coverage ratio is amongst the highest in our peer group.

在投影片 21 上，信用品質持續表現良好，指標標準化符合我們的預期。如前所述，本季淨沖銷為 24 個基點，雖然比上季高出 8 個基點，但仍符合我們對全年淨沖銷 20 至 30 個基點的指導。在 25 至 45 個基點的淨沖銷週期範圍內，這一水準繼續處於我們目標的低端。正如先前的指引，在常態化持續推進的情況下，不良資產較上季度增加，受批評的資產比率有所上升，其中商業房地產的風險評級變化是最大的組成部分。信用損失準備金佔貸款總額的比例提高了3個基點，達到1.96%，ACL覆蓋率在同業中名列前茅。

Let's turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter on Slide 22. We forecast loan growth of approximately 1% in the fourth quarter, which will put full year loan growth at approximately 5%, matching the lower end of our prior range. Deposits are likewise expected to grow in the fourth quarter by approximately 1%. Core net interest income for the fourth quarter is expected to decline between 4% and 5% from Q3 before expanding throughout 2024 from that level. Noninterest income on a core underlying basis is expected to be relatively stable. Expenses are expected to increase between 4% and 5% into the fourth quarter, primarily driven by revenue-related expenses associated with the expected growth in capital markets, a seasonal increase in medical claims and sustained investment in new and enhanced capabilities. We expect net charge-offs for the full year to be near the midpoint of the 20 to 30 basis points guidance range.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 22 上對第四季度的展望。我們預測第四季度貸款增長約為 1%，這將使全年貸款增長約為 5%，與我們之前範圍的下限相符。同樣預計第四季存款將成長約 1%。第四季的核心淨利息收入預計將比第三季下降 4% 至 5%，然後在 2024 年全年在此水準上擴大。核心基礎上的非利息收入預計將相對穩定。預計第四季度費用將增加 4% 至 5%，主要是由於與資本市場預期增長、醫療索賠季節性增加以及對新功能和增強功能的持續投資相關的收入相關費用的推動。我們預計全年淨沖銷將接近 20 至 30 個基點指引範圍的中點。

Finally, let me close on Slide 23 with a few thoughts on our management priorities for 2024. We're still finalizing our budget for next year. And as always, we look to share more specific guidance during our January earnings call. First and foremost, we're committed to driving continued capital expansion while we continue to optimize lending growth to drive the highest returns. As Steve mentioned, we're playing from a position of strength, and we expect to maintain that position as we get ahead of proposed capital regulations and phase-in periods.

最後，讓我以 2024 年管理優先事項的一些想法來結束投影片 23。我們仍在敲定明年的預算。像往常一樣，我們希望在 1 月的財報電話會議上分享更具體的指導。首先也是最重要的是，我們致力於推動持續的資本擴張，同時繼續優化貸款成長以實現最高回報。正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們正在發揮優勢，並且我們希望在擬議的資本監管和分階段實施之前保持這一地位。

Related to deposits, we're continuing to acquire and deepen primary bank customer relationships. This should result in continued growth of deposits into next year, while supporting our disciplined management of deposit beta. Given the expected higher for longer rate scenario, we will continue to position the balance sheet to remain modestly asset sensitive, which will support the margin, and we expect will deliver both in net interest income dollars on a full year basis. Noninterest income remains a critical focus for us with sustained execution on 3 primary strategic areas for fee revenue growth; capital markets, payments and wealth management.

在存款方面，我們正在繼續獲取和深化主要銀行客戶關係。這應該會導致明年存款持續成長，同時支持我們對存款貝塔值的嚴格管理。考慮到長期利率預期較高的情況，我們將繼續將資產負債表定位為保持適度的資產敏感度，這將支撐利潤率，並且我們預計將以全年淨利息收入美元計價。非利息收入仍然是我們的關鍵關注點，我們持續執行 3 個主要策略領域以促進費用收入成長；資本市場、支付和財富管理。

Over the medium term, we expect that noninterest income has the potential to grow at a rate more quickly than both loans and spread revenues given the opportunities for these fee businesses. As I mentioned on expenses, we have taken considerable actions to hold baseline expense growth to a low level. This focused on sustained efficiencies, including operation accelerate, business process offshoring and the other actions will yield multiyear benefits. These actions are necessary to allow for the continued investment into new and enhanced capabilities, which will set up growth over the course of the next few years. We expect the net result of these actions for 2024 will be an underlying growth rate of core expenses, somewhat higher than the level we saw in 2023.

從中期來看，鑑於這些收費業務的機會，我們預期非利息收入的成長速度有可能比貸款和利差收入更快。正如我在費用方面所提到的，我們已採取大量行動將基準費用成長控制在較低水準。其重點是持續提高效率，包括營運加速、業務流程離岸以及其他將產生多年效益的行動。這些行動對於持續投資新的和增強的能力是必要的，這將在未來幾年內實現成長。我們預計 2024 年這些行動的最終結果將是核心支出的潛在成長率，略高於 2023 年的水準。

Our current working estimate is underlying expense growth of approximately 4% compared to the approximately 2.5% level we were running in 2023. We believe this level of expense management is the right balance to position the company to operate within the current environment and sustain our momentum into 2025. We will also maintain our rigorous approach to credit management, consistent with our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite.

我們目前的工作估計是，與 2023 年約 2.5% 的水平相比，基本費用增長約為 4%。我們相信，這種費用管理水平是使公司在當前環境下運營並保持發展勢頭的正確平衡。到2025 年。我們也將保持嚴格的信用管理方法，與我們整體的中低風險偏好一致。

Finally, to close, we believe we are exceptionally well positioned to proactively stay ahead of the evolving environment. We will be dynamic and address these numerous topics head on. And over time, we believe this will result in opportunities to benefit substantially in the coming years.

最後，我們相信我們處於非常有利的位置，可以主動保持在不斷變化的環境中的領先地位。我們將充滿活力並正面解決這些眾多的主題。隨著時間的推移，我們相信這將在未來幾年帶來大幅受益的機會。

With that, we will conclude our prepared remarks and move to Q&A. Tim, over to you.

至此，我們將結束準備好的發言並進入問答環節。提姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Zach. Operator, we will now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy to your peers, each person ask only 1 question and 1 related follow-up. And then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue. Thank you.

謝謝，扎克。接線員，我們現在開始提問。出於對同事的禮貌，我們要求每個人只提出 1 個問題和 1 個相關的後續問題。然後，如果該人還有其他問題，他或她可以將自己重新加入隊列。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

Can you talk about the puts and takes in that 4% expense growth number for next year? What sort of revenue environment does that bake in? Are -- what are the areas that are pushing up expenses and maybe also where you have flexibility to manage more if the revenue environment is weaker?

您能談談明年 4% 的費用成長數字中的看跌期權和買入期權嗎？這會帶來什麼樣的收入環境？哪些領域推高了支出？如果收入環境疲軟，您還可以靈活地管理更多領域？

Yes. Great question. And this is Zach. I'll take that one. Just to (inaudible) and set a framework for the answer, let me reiterate what I said in the prepared remarks a minute ago, which is driving efficiency in our core expenses is a key priority for us. We're one of the most efficient banks in the regional banking space, and that's been a product of years of efforts. What we're trying to do right now is strike a balance of the short term and the medium term.

是的。很好的問題。這是札克。我會接受那個。為了（聽不清楚）並為答案製定一個框架，讓我重申我在一分鐘前準備好的演講中所說的話，即提高我們核心支出的效率是我們的首要任務。我們是區域銀行領域最有效率的銀行之一，這是多年努力的成果。我們現在要做的就是在短期和中期之間取得平衡。

In the short term, managing expenses to a low level of growth given the overall revenue environment. But also in the medium term, we see significant growth opportunities over time for Huntington, and we want to make sure that we maintain the momentum in our key strategies and, in fact, capture the higher revenue outlook that we even just shared. Even as we quickly get ahead, and I stress that work quickly, get ahead of the new and expanded risk management capability that we'll need to operate. If you take a step back, it's just over a year ago, that we were fully delivering of over $0.5 billion of annual expense saves from the TCF merger.

短期內，考慮整體收入環境，將支出控制在低水準成長。但從中期來看，隨著時間的推移，我們看到亨廷頓有巨大的成長機會，我們希望確保我們保持關鍵策略的勢頭，事實上，抓住我們剛剛分享的更高的收入前景。即使我們很快就取得領先，我強調要快速開展工作，也要領先於我們營運所需的新的和擴展的風險管理能力。如果您退後一步，就在一年多前，我們透過 TCF 合併完全節省了超過 5 億美元的年度費用。

Over the last year since then, we felt underlying core expenses to 2.4%. And we did that with all of the programs I've just talked about in the prepared remarks, the long-term efficiency programs, the proactive actions we took in the first quarter of this year and now a new set of actions that we're implementing in the third quarter, including another tranche of branch optimization, accelerating the business process offshoring, driving efficiencies across the bank and finding efficiencies in our corporate real estate portfolio.

在接下來的一年裡，我們認為基本核心費用為 2.4%。我們透過我剛才在準備好的發言中談到的所有計劃、長期效率計劃、我們在今年第一季採取的積極行動以及現在我們正在採取的一系列新行動來做到這一點。第三季度實施的措施包括另一部分分行優化、加速業務流程離岸、提高整個銀行的效率以及提高我們的企業房地產投資組合的效率。

As we look at the '24, to your question, we're seeing the opportunity for incremental revenue upside, particularly in the really strong performance we've seen in our NIM management program, which is higher than our prior outlook and good momentum in the fee businesses as we look forward. We want to quickly address the lessons learned on the last use environment, address the new regulations coming around Basel, CCAR, resolution planning and ultimately enhance our risk management so we can operate in -- from a position of strength, just as we are right now, going forward, which will require investment. So the kind of things that are driving that roughly 1.5% higher run rate, our investment into teams like treasury, risk management, technology, it's with a focus on enhancing data, underlying process capabilities and automation.

當我們回顧 24 年時，對於你的問題，我們看到了增量收入上升的機會，特別是我們在 NIM 管理計劃中看到的真正強勁的表現，這高於我們之前的預期，並且在我們期待的收費業務。我們希望快速吸取上次使用環境中的經驗教訓，解決巴塞爾、CCAR、決議規劃等方面的新法規，並最終加強我們的風險管理，以便我們能夠從優勢地位出發，正如我們所做的那樣現在，展望未來，這將需要投資。因此，推動運行率提高約 1.5% 的因素是我們對財務、風險管理、技術等團隊的投資，重點是增強數據、基礎流程能力和自動化。

The goal in India, well, take a step back, is to get ahead of these requirements to quickly move through this period. We expect to see around a year's worth of this higher expected run rate expenses to be around 1.5% higher and then that expense growth rate will come back down again as we exit 2024, and we'll see the underlying core expense management come through. It all goes back to the goal of maintaining our (inaudible), our momentum and really ensuring that Huntington continues to be in a position of strength to go forward.

印度的目標，嗯，退一步來說，是超越這些要求，快速度過這段時期。我們預計一年左右的預期營運費用將上漲 1.5% 左右，然後當我們退出 2024 年時，費用成長率將再次下降，我們將看到潛在的核心費用管理得以實現。這一切都回到了保持我們（聽不清楚）的勢頭的目標，並真正確保亨廷頓繼續處於前進的有利位置。

Manan, this is Steve. Just to sort of come in over the top of that. We think this is the time to be dynamic to play off us to be front-footed in terms of a number of our businesses, and we intend to do that, and that will require investment. We'll have more colleagues, more talent, if you will. We'll have some new capabilities, all of which are in the plan and the numbers Zach shared with you.

馬南，這是史蒂夫。只是為了超越這一點。我們認為現在是時候充滿活力，讓我們在許多業務方面處於領先地位，我們打算做到這一點，而這將需要投資。如果你願意的話，我們將會有更多的同事、更多的人才。我們將擁有一些新功能，所有這些都在扎克與您分享的計劃和數字中。

Got it. And then just putting it together because you mentioned you're modeling NII trends higher as you go through 2024, there's more upside to fees. How does that play into operating leverage for next year? Do you still think you can drive positive operating leverage?

知道了。然後將其放在一起，因為您提到您正在對 2024 年的 NII 趨勢進行建模，因此費用有更多的上漲空間。這對明年的營運槓桿有何影響？您仍然認為您可以推動積極的營運槓桿嗎？

It's a little (inaudible) give you precise guidance on that, but driving toward operating leverage over time is a key element of our goals. You'll remember that it's 1 of the 3 major financial targets we set for ourselves. And we do see solid opportunity for revenue growth next year on both spread and fees. But I would just again coming back, what's critical for us is managing for the medium term at this point. And we want to make sure that we can maintain those critical investments even as we're driving the efficiencies in the underlying expense growth rate. Talk about operating leverage over time, we'll have some part of the plan, and we'll have to see the precise outlook for '24 (inaudible).

它為您提供了一點（聽不清楚）精確的指導，但隨著時間的推移，推動營運槓桿是我們目標的關鍵要素。您會記得這是我們為自己設定的 3 個主要財務目標之一。我們確實看到明年在點差和費用方面收入成長的良好機會。但我想再次回來，對我們來說最重要的是在這一點上進行中期管理。我們希望確保我們能夠維持這些關鍵投資，即使我們正在提高基本費用成長率的效率。隨著時間的推移，談論營運槓桿，我們將製定計劃的一部分，並且我們必須看到 24 年的準確前景（聽不清楚）。

Our next question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Pancari。

Just on the net interest income front. I know you indicated that you implied -- you expect a trough in the fourth quarter and then expanding through 2024. Maybe can you help us frame the magnitude of growth that you think is achievable under the current curve assumption as you look at the NII upside? And then I guess the same question would be for your commentary around the margin in terms of expansion through the year? Maybe if you can help us size that up in terms of what's a fair assumption based on what you're looking at?

就淨利息收入而言。我知道您表示您暗示 - 您預計第四季度會出現低谷，然後在 2024 年之前擴張。也許您可以幫助我們確定您認為在當前曲線假設下可實現的增長幅度，同時考慮 NII 的上行空間？然後我想同樣的問題也會出現在您對全年擴張的邊緣評論上？也許您可以幫助我們根據您所看到的內容來確定合理的假設是什麼？

Yes. That's a great question. This is Zach. I'll take that one. I think just take a step back, and you saw in the third quarter, really highlighted the effectiveness of our overall asset sensitivity management program, where we saw NIM expand and the benefits of asset repricing really coming through into a stronger NIM. What we saw in the third quarter was about 10 basis points increase in NIM from the second quarter. Around half of that, I will note are items that were temporary in nature, reducing Fed cash in Q3 from Q2 drove around 3 basis points. We've got some elevated levels of dividend from the FHLB stock that was a function of Q2 FHLB borrowing, those items won't recur.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。這是札克。我會接受那個。我認為退後一步，您在第三季度看到，確實突出了我們整體資產敏感性管理計劃的有效性，我們看到淨息差擴大，資產重新定價的好處真正體現在更強大的淨息差中。我們在第三季看到的淨利差比第二季增加了約 10 個基點。我要指出的是，其中大約一半是臨時性項目，導致第三季聯準會現金較第二季減少約 3 個基點。我們從 FHLB 股票中獲得了一些較高的股息水平，這是 FHLB 第二季度借款的函數，這些項目不會重複出現。

However, we did see a positive 4 basis point move in underlying spread in the third quarter as I noted. As we think about Q4, our expectation is that to see a NIM of between 305 and 310 basis points, which is around 5 or 10 basis points better than I would have thought this time last quarter. And it's really driven by the benefits we're seeing coming through from the higher for longer rate scenario, which as we've noted, we would expect to be accretive to overall NIM, and that is bearing through. Based on the trends we're seeing in earning assets, I expect the dollars of NII in Q4 down around 4% to 5% from Q3 and forming a trough both in NIM ratio and the NIM and net interest income dollars in the fourth quarter then trending higher from there.

然而，正如我所指出的，我們確實看到第三季基礎利差出現了 4 個基點的正向變動。當我們考慮第四季度時，我們的預期是淨息差在 305 到 310 個基點之間，這比我上個季度此時的預期要好 5 到 10 個基點左右。這實際上是由我們看到的長期較高利率情景所帶來的好處所推動的，正如我們所指出的，我們預計這將增加整體淨息差，而且這一點正在發生。根據我們在生息資產中看到的趨勢，我預期第四季的NII美元將比第三季下降約4%至5%，並在第四季的NIM比率、NIM和淨利息收入美元上形成一個低谷從那裡趨勢更高。

The NIM outlook for 2024, I expect to be flat to rising, as I noted. And I think the things you're going to see are continued really solid progress on fixed asset repricing, major asset categories on the fixed side this quarter are seeing again, sequential increases into Q3. We'll expect to see that continuing on particularly in the higher for longer scenario. Even as we do see beta continuing to trend as well. It will be accretive to the overall spend throughout the course of next year we think. Will also benefit, as we've noted before, during 2024 from a gradual reduction in the negative carry from the received fixed swap hedge portfolio, we estimate roughly 5 basis points throughout the course of next year on that benefit, but mainly in the second half of the year.

正如我所指出的，我預計 2024 年淨利差前景將持平或上升。我認為你將看到的事情是固定資產重新定價方面繼續取得真正堅實的進展，本季度固定資產的主要資產類別再次出現，進入第三季度連續增長。我們預計這種情況會持續下去，特別是在長期較高的情況下。即使我們確實看到貝塔值也繼續呈趨勢。我們認為，這將增加明年全年的整體支出。正如我們之前指出的，2024 年期間，固定掉期對沖投資組合的負利差逐漸減少，我們預計明年全年該收益大約會增加 5 個基點，但主要集中在第二個基點。半年。

So I would say couple that flat to rising NIM with growth in loans, growth in earning assets that, as I know will drive overall NII dollars higher. We'll get more precise with guidance as we get into January. But those are the major drivers that we're seeing at this point.

因此，我想說的是，將持平與不斷上升的淨息差與貸款增長、盈利資產增長結合起來，據我所知，這將推動總體淨息差美元走高。進入一月後，我們將提供更準確的指導。但這些是我們目前看到的主要驅動因素。

Very helpful, Zach. And then separately on credit. Criticized loans up 17% linked quarter. It looks like -- and I believe you alluded to in your comments, a lot of that was commercial real estate. Can you -- and I know you added to your reserve and commercial real estate nonperformers are also up pretty sharply. Was there a dedicated effort to scrub the portfolio that you're working through your exposures there that drove a lumpier move here? Or is this the deterioration that's starting to take shape as we all expect in this sector?

非常有幫助，扎克。然後分別賒帳。受批評的貸款環比增長 17%。看起來——我相信你在評論中提到過，其中很多都是商業房地產。我知道你增加了儲備，商業房地產的不良表現也大幅上升。是否有專門的努力來清理您正在處理的投資組合，從而導致這裡的波動更大？或者，正如我們所有人預期的那樣，這個行業的惡化正在開始形成？

John, it's Rich. Let me start with that, and then I can turn it over to Brendan to give you a little bit more color on what happened in the third quarter. So if you think back to Q2, our NPA level was at 46 basis points, which was the lowest level we've had since the GFC, and we've had 8 consecutive quarters of declines, totaling over $450 million since then. The Q3 level that we're at today, 52 basis points is right around where we were this time last year. So to me, it's not at a level that's concerning to your point around being proactive. We have done a lot of the adds to nonaccrual that we had in the quarter were discretionary. We think about 2/3 of our commercial NPLs are current on their principal and interest. The [critical asset] is a similar story. We had reductions in 5 of the 6 previous quarters. And as you talk about credit normalizing, you would expect to see an increase in critical asset from that.

約翰，我是里奇。讓我從這個開始，然後我可以把它交給布倫丹，讓你對第三季發生的事情有更多的了解。因此，如果你回想第二季度，我們的 NPA 水準為 46 個基點，這是自全球金融危機以來我們的最低水平，並且自那時以來我們已經連續 8 個季度下降，總計超過 4.5 億美元。今天的第三季水準為 52 個基點，與去年此時的水準相當。所以對我來說，這與你積極主動的觀點無關。我們在本季增加的非應計費用中有很多都是酌情增加的。我們認為大約 2/3 的商業不良貸款本金和利息均已償還。 [關鍵資產]也是類似的情況。前 6 個季度中有 5 個季度我們進行了削減。當你談論信用正常化時，你會期望看到關鍵資產的增加。

So I wouldn't categorize the movements as huge jumps. I think it's just a normalization at very low levels for us. But Brendan, why don't you give a little bit of insight into the Q3 specifics.

所以我不會將這些動作歸類為巨大的跳躍。我認為這對我們來說只是非常低的正常化。但是 Brendan，您為什麼不深入了解第三季的具體情況呢？

Sure. Thanks, Rich. To provide just a little bit more color, approximately -- for critical asset, approximately 60% of the increase was focused in commercial real estate and our ABL group. There are 2 places you'd expect to see higher levels. On the NPA side, it was split more equally between commercial real estate and C&I. For both NPA and critical asset, as you noted, the real estate exposure was focused mostly in office. And on the C&I side, beyond the ABL concentration I mentioned, there really weren't material concentration. So I think what you're seeing in the numbers, as Rich said, it's just a bounce off a very low bottom.

當然。謝謝，里奇。為了給關鍵資產更多的色彩，大約 60% 的成長集中在商業房地產和我們的 ABL 集團。您預計有 2 個地方會看到更高的等級。在 NPA 方面，商業不動產和工商業不動產的分配較為平均。正如您所指出的，對於不良資產和關鍵資產來說，房地產風險主要集中在辦公室。在 C&I 方面，除了我提到的 ABL 集中度之外，確實沒有物質集中度。所以我認為你在數字中看到的，正如里奇所說，這只是從非常低的底部反彈。

Our next question comes from the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ebrahim Poonawala 與美國銀行的聯繫。

Just maybe a question for you, Steve. I think -- I mean, you all have talked about being front-footed, there are banks that are talking about coming back to loan growth next year. But I'm just wondering if there's going to be a ton of loan demand to speak of for banks to lend into. Just give us a sense of what you're seeing across your footprint, where that loan demand is coming from? Or are you seeing customers get increasingly cautious?

也許只是問你一個問題，史蒂夫。我認為——我的意思是，你們都談到要搶先一步，有些銀行正在討論明年恢復貸款成長。但我只是想知道是否會有大量的貸款需求可供銀行放款。請讓我們了解一下您在您的足跡中看到的情況，貸款需求來自哪裡？還是您發現客戶變得越來越謹慎？

Ebrahim, great question. Thank you. I believe there's a growing cautiousness. What's going on in Israel and the Middle East, what's going on in Washington. We've got a UAW strike that does not have an apparent resolution. And I think businesses are reacting to that. 99% of our customer base, probably the companies, rates are up. They're using their liquidity, but the uncertain economic outlook and where rates are going, all sort of are headwinds to the next round of growth.

易卜拉欣，好問題。謝謝。我相信人們越來越謹慎。以色列和中東正在發生什麼，華盛頓正在發生什麼。我們發生了 UAW 罷工，但沒有明顯的解決方案。我認為企業正在對此做出反應。我們 99% 的客戶群（可能是公司）的費率都上漲了。他們正在利用流動性，但不確定的經濟前景和利率走向，都是下一輪成長的阻力。

Having said that, our businesses are doing well. We'll have good growth. We'll be within guidance that we gave you -- that Zach gave you earlier in the year, will be up about 5% year-over-year. And we'll continue to see growth next year, I believe, in a couple of areas in particular. Our distribution finance is a powerful engine. It seasonally reduced this quarter. It will be up in the fourth quarter, and we expect to continue to grow that by winning new business. We are a significant equipment finance lender. And more and more onshoring, more automation, there'll be continued demand, albeit probably not at the levels we saw in '22 and before. That will play well. And we're top 10 asset-based lender. So all of those asset related finance activities should do well in this environment. And as you know, we are a huge small business bank. The small businesses will need more support and we'll be there for them. And those will be sources of growth. But there's an overall more cautious outlook within our customer base, just that will have some moderate impact on, I think, on overall loan demand next year.

話雖如此，我們的業務做得很好。我們會有很好的成長。我們將遵循扎克今年早些時候給您的指導，同比增長約 5%。我相信，明年我們將繼續看到成長，特別是在幾個領域。我們的分銷金融是一個強大的引擎。本季季節性下降。該數字將在第四季度上升，我們預計將透過贏得新業務來繼續成長。我們是重要的設備融資貸款機構。越來越多的外包、更多的自動化，將會有持續的需求，儘管可能不會達到我們在 22 年及之前看到的水平。那會玩得很好。我們是排名前十的資產貸款機構。因此，所有這些與資產相關的金融活動都應該在這種環境下表現良好。如您所知，我們是一家大型小型企業銀行。小型企業需要更多支持，我們將為他們提供支持。這些將成為成長的泉源。但我們的客戶群總體上持更加謹慎的態度，我認為這將對明年的整體貸款需求產生一些溫和的影響。

Got it. That's helpful. And I guess a follow-up. Zach, you mentioned solid increases in fixed asset portfolio yield at they repriced. Just talk to us in terms of when these are coming up for repricing? Is it just kind of playing out contractually, if there's some negotiation in terms of the spreads narrowing at the time of repricing of these fixed rate loans? And is that kind of impacting credit [sense], are some of these borrowers looking a bit worse in terms of their ability to service the debt post repricing?

知道了。這很有幫助。我想會有後續行動。札克，​​您提到固定資產投資組合報酬率在重新定價後穩定成長。請與我們談談這些產品何時重新定價？如果在這些固定利率貸款重新定價時就縮小利差進行一些談判，這是否只是按照合約進行？這是否會影響信貸[意義]？這些借款人中的一些人在重新定價後償還債務的能力方面看起來是否有些糟糕？

Yes. Great questions, and let me address those. So what I'd say is in terms of the trajectory on asset yield, take it back, over 200 basis points through the cycle to date, and it's really been a couple of things, most notably an intentional outcome that we've had in terms of how we're incrementally driving new loan production into -- and really driving for higher returns, which also is often higher NIM. So we're seeing that come through in a lot of the areas where we're actively modulating and optimizing Indirect Auto, for example, is a great example that with fields up tremendously on the (inaudible) the course of the cycle.

是的。很好的問題，讓我來回答這些問題。因此，我想說的是，就資產收益率的軌跡而言，迄今為止，整個週期已經超過 200 個基點，這確實是由幾件事造成的，最值得注意的是我們在就我們如何逐步推動新貸款生產並真正推動更高的回報而言，這通常也是更高的淨利差。因此，我們看到在我們積極調整和優化間接自動的許多領域中都出現了這種情況，例如，這是一個很好的例子，在（聽不清楚）週期過程中字段數量大幅增加。

It's also though just a natural outcome of the structure of the balance sheet. And one of the reasons why we added the slide we did this quarter in terms of detail there was to just provide more transparency into that. We're around 50% fully variable. So you're seeing benefits of higher rates come through on that portfolio. Another roughly 10% in shorter durated fixed Indirect Auto. As I just noted, we're seeing really sizable increases in portfolio yield there. Another 10% in arms of a 5-year duration, which we're gradually seeing that come through in the higher for longer scenario, every one of those fixed asset categories, including the longer durated remaining third of the portfolio are really paying the benefit and we've seen just in Q3, 50 basis points increase in the new coupon yields across the portfolio, greater than 20 basis point increase in back book portfolio yields.

這也是資產負債表結構的自然結果。我們添加本季詳細資訊的幻燈片的原因之一是為了提供更多的透明度。我們大約有 50% 是完全可變的。因此，您會看到該投資組合帶來更高利率的好處。另外約 10% 是持續時間較短的固定間接自動。正如我剛才指出的，我們看到投資組合收益率確實大幅成長。另外 10% 的期限為 5 年，我們逐漸看到，在長期較高的情況下，每一種固定資產類別，包括投資組合中期限較長的剩餘三分之一，都真正帶來了收益就在第三季度，我們看到整個投資組合的新票面利率增加了50 個基點，而帳面投資組合收益率增加了20 個基點以上。

And I do think that will continue to trend here, and one of the key drivers for NIM stability and growth as we go into 2024. We're not seeing any substantive portfolio-wide credit-driven yield repricing substance and really, it's much more fundamentally driven as I noted.

我確實認為這種趨勢將繼續存在，並且是進入2024 年時淨息差穩定和增長的關鍵驅動力之一。我們沒有看到任何實質性的投資組合範圍內的信貸驅動的收益率重新定價實質，而且實際上，它的作用遠不止於此。正如我所指出的，這是根本驅動的。

Ebrahim, just to add, we've got a very diversified portfolio. We've been very disciplined with our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite over the years, you've seen us report quarterly since 2010 in the consumer book, which is Super-prime, (inaudible), Auto and Resi, et cetera. So we're sitting in a position we feel the strength, we have confidence in the portfolio and our ability to manage through even in a tougher cycle. And as we've said to our customer base, we've got a relationship orientation. We're here to support them, and we will -- we're in a position to do that with our reserves, our capital, our robust liquidity and that leads us to this stance on playing offense and moving share during these next couple of years.

易卜拉欣，補充一下，我們擁有非常多元化的投資組合。多年來，我們對整體中度至低度風險偏好非常嚴格，自2010 年以來，您可以在消費者手冊中看到我們的季度報告，其中包括Super-prime、（聽不清楚）、Auto 和Resi等。因此，我們坐在一個位置上，我們感受到了力量，我們對投資組合以及我們即使在更艱難的周期中管理的能力也充滿信心。正如我們對客戶群所說的那樣，我們以關係為導向。我們來這裡是為了支持他們，我們將——我們有能力用我們的儲備、我們的資本、我們強大的流動性來做到這一點，這使我們在接下來的幾年裡採取進攻和轉移份額的立場。年。

Our next questions are from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特·西弗斯（Scott Siefers）和派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）。

Zach, I just wanted to clarify if I heard correctly just on the NII. Are we expecting it to grow full year '23 -- pardon me, full year '24 over '23 or just positively off the fourth quarter base?

扎克，我只是想澄清一下我在 NII 上聽到的是否正確。我們是否預計它會在 23 年全年增長——請原諒我，是在 23 年全年增長還是在第四季度基礎上增長？

Well, Scott, great questions. (inaudible) clarify both. So to see trajectory of growth (inaudible) year and on a net basis, full year growth as well, which is going to be a function of flat to rising NIMs and pretty compatible overall full year and year-on-year as well as growth in earning assets and loans.

嗯，斯科特，好問題。 （聽不清楚）澄清兩者。因此，要看到年度（聽不清楚）成長軌跡以及淨額成長軌跡，以及全年成長，這將是淨利差持平到上升的函數，並且整體全年和同比以及成長相當兼容賺取資產和貸款。

Okay. Perfect. And then I wanted to kind of revisit the cost equation a bit. Maybe on the initiatives that you began in the third quarter, maybe just some thoughts on how substantial they are? And I guess ultimately -- I guess the question becomes -- we'll have about 4% expense growth despite these initiatives sort of begs what cost growth might have been without them. So just any sort of further thoughts on exactly where we're investing, what this will ultimately end up driving et cetera?

好的。完美的。然後我想重新檢視成本方程式。也許是關於您在第三季開始的舉措，也許只是一些關於它們的重要性的想法？我想最終——我想問題是——我們的費用增長約為 4%，儘管這些舉措有點要求如果沒有它們，成本增長可能會是多少。那麼，對於我們到底在哪裡投資、這最終會帶來什麼影響等等，有什麼進一步的想法嗎？

Yes, terrific question. (inaudible) to expand on that. If I think about the equation that we were managing in 2023, we've been seeing around 2%, 2.5% underlying expense growth. And that's with the benefit of significant efficiencies that we're generating this year. I estimate that around 1% benefit in expenses in 2023 from these cumulative initiatives running for the last [6 to 18] months and self-funding underlying investments. We've talked about this model before driving efficiencies in the core, keeping the underlying core at a low level with the funnel and outsized level of investment and expense growth into key investment earnings like tech, marketing, new additions of personnel to support your strategies, those underlying investments are up almost 20% in 2023, which is what we will hold the competitive capabilities that we thought.

是的，很棒的問題。 （聽不清楚）對此進行擴展。如果我考慮我們在 2023 年管理的方程式，我們會發現基本費用增長約為 2% 至 2.5%。這得益於我們今年顯著提高的效率。我估計，從過去 [6 到 18] 個月運行的這些累積舉措以及自籌資金的基礎投資中，到 2023 年，支出將受益約 1%。在提高核心效率之前，我們已經討論過這種模式，透過管道和超大規模的投資和費用成長將底層核心保持在較低水平，以實現關鍵投資收益，例如技術、行銷、新增加的人員以支持您的策略，這些基礎投資到2023年將成長近20%，這就是我們將保持的競爭能力。

As we go into (inaudible) that model is what drove the overall roughly 2.5% growth that we saw in '23. I think what we're seeing as we go into 2024 is roughly similar sort of underlying expense management program, really modeling down somewhat the underlying investments in light of the environment, clearly, but also bearing some modest incremental impacts of just the cumulative inflationary environment and the efficiencies will rise as well. And so the net kind of underlying run rate that I would have expected into next year is around 2.5%.

當我們進入（聽不清楚）時，該模型推動了我們在 23 年看到的總體約 2.5% 的成長。我認為，進入 2024 年，我們所看到的基本費用管理計劃大致相似，實際上根據環境對基本投資進行了一定程度的縮減，顯然，但也承受著累積通膨環境的一些適度的增量影響效率也會提高。因此，我預計明年的淨基本運行率為 2.5% 左右。

And then on top of that, we are accelerating again, these investments in regulatory response, risk management capabilities that represents the additional 1.5% expense growth as we go into next year. That's the 4% trajectory. If I think about where we're investing is to talk on this briefly, we continue to focus on core strategy investments, delivering the TCF revenue synergies, growing our commercial bank through vertical specialized -- specialty expertise, digital and product development in our Consumer Banking and Business Banking division continue to drive the fee revenue strategies and capital markets, payments and wealth and then on top of that, clearly dealing with these additional areas around Basel III, CCAR, liquidity and interest rate risk management, resolution planning and data and automation.

除此之外，我們再次加速對監管回應、風險管理能力的投資，這意味著我們明年的費用將額外增加 1.5%。這就是 4% 的軌跡。如果我想我們的投資方向，那就簡單地談談這一點，我們將繼續專注於核心策略投資，提供TCF 收入協同效應，透過消費者領域的垂直專業知識、數位化和產品開發來發展我們的商業銀行。銀行和商業銀行部門繼續推動費用收入策略和資本市場、支付和財富，然後明確處理巴塞爾協議 III、CCAR、流動性和利率風險管理、決議規劃和數據等其他領域自動化。

This is Steve. Just to add on. You'll also see several new initiatives that are also included in that number of 4% that we'll be announcing Q4 and Q1.

這是史蒂夫。只是補充一下。您還將看到一些新舉措，這些舉措也包含在我們將在第四季和第一季宣布的 4% 中。

Okay. Perfect. And I guess just one final ticky-tack question. The fourth quarter cost increase, will that include any unusual charges the way we saw this quarter?

好的。完美的。我想這只是最後一個棘手的問題。第四季的成本增加是否包括我們本季看到的任何異常費用？

So we saw around $15 million of onetime costs this quarter. Some portion of the onetime costs that we expect to arise as a result of the new initiatives were taking place, we're not able to be accounted for within the third quarter. I'm expecting roughly $10 million additional onetime expenses in the fourth quarter related to those same initiatives. That's not included in the guidance that I gave earlier relatively (inaudible) scheme of things. So the total one-timers related to those actions, I expect to be approximately $25 million in total, which, again, we've taken $15 million into the P&L in Q3.

因此，本季我們看到約 1500 萬美元的一次性成本。我們預計由於新措施的實施而產生的部分一次性成本，我們無法在第三季內進行會計處理。我預計第四季與這些措施相關的額外一次性費用約為 1000 萬美元。這不包括在我之前給出的相對（聽不清楚）的方案中的指導中。因此，我預計與這些行動相關的一次性資金總額約為 2500 萬美元，我們在第三季的損益表中再次計入了 1500 萬美元。

Our next question is from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

So just circling back on capital, obviously, strong, really any ratio you look at including AOCI and I understand the logic of building capital from here given uncertain macro and you're kind of lean in the business. But is there a level that you're like once we get here, it's just more than we need under almost any scenario, and you'd look to deploy it more aggressively?

因此，回到資本，顯然，強勁，實際上你所看到的任何比率，包括 AOCI，我理解在宏觀不確定的情況下從這裡建立資本的邏輯，而且你在業務上有點精益。但是，一旦我們到達這裡，您是否會認為它超出了我們幾乎在任何情況下所需的水平，並且您希望更積極地部署它？

Yes. It's a great question. Let me take a minute to expand on that. As you know, driving capital higher from here is a key focus. We have fully transitioned within the company to managing the primary metric of adjusted CET1, inclusive of AOCI. And on that basis, we're at 8% in the third quarter, our operating range for CET1 is between 9% to 10%. And so we want to drive that 8% ratio up into that operating range of between 9% and 10%, and that's the key goal.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。讓我花一點時間來詳細闡述這一點。如您所知，從這裡推動資本走高是一個關鍵焦點。我們在公司內部已完全過渡到管理調整後的 CET1（包括 AOCI）的主要指標。在此基礎上，我們第三季的成長率為 8%，我們 CET1 的營運範圍在 9% 到 10% 之間。因此，我們希望將 8% 的比率提高到 9% 到 10% 之間的營運範圍，這是關鍵目標。

I think by the time we get there, I expect that we'll work with significant confidence in being able to do that, by the way, over time. By the time we get there, presumably we'll have clarity around the final Basel III requirements any other implications to capital coming out of the new regulatory environment. And we'll be able to also reassess where the macro environment is and where the lending trajectory as I alluded to the question we got earlier. And so hard to tell sort of exactly where within that range we want to go. But my expectation is once we get into that range, but we have opportunity to get back to a more normalized capital distribution model, support elevated and longer-term run rate levels of loan growth that we've seen in the past and move through it.

我認為，當我們到達那裡時，我希望我們能夠充滿信心地工作，順便說一句，隨著時間的推移，我們能夠做到這一點。當我們到達那裡時，想必我們將清楚巴塞爾協議 III 的最終要求以及新監管環境對資本的任何其他影響。正如我在之前提到的問題中提到的那樣，我們還能夠重新評估宏觀環境以及貸款軌跡。很難準確地說出我們想要在這個範圍內去往的地方。但我的期望是，一旦我們進入這個範圍，我們就有機會回到更正常化的資本分配模式，支持我們過去看到的貸款成長的較高和長期運行利率水平，並度過難關。

I'll just tack on our current working hypothesis and modeling estimate around the Basel III proposal, if it was adopted exactly as was proposed just roughly 5% increase in RWA based on the phase-in schedule that was proposed as part of the NPR that wouldn't be phased in until 2027, and we represent about 40 bps of CET1 in 2027 as that proposal is written. And so part of this is just quickly get ahead of that, you get so far out of time (inaudible) and allow us to really move forward on our front foot starting '25 and beyond from an accelerated loan growth perspective.

我將圍繞巴塞爾 III 提案補充我們當前的工作假設和模型估計，如果它完全按照提議被採用，那麼根據作為 NPR 的一部分提出的分階段計劃，RWA 只會增加大約 5%直到2027 年才會分階段實施，在該提案撰寫時，我們代表2027 年CET1 的約40 個基點。因此，其中一部分就是快速超越這一點，你已經沒有時間了（聽不清楚），讓我們從加速貸款成長的角度開始，從 25 年開始，真正向前邁進。

Got it. That was helpful. And then just quickly squeeze in the mark-to-market impact of the pay fixed swaptions, maybe it's a silly question, but do we just kind of put in some gains when rates go up and then if rates go the other way, is it mark-to-market on the negative side? Or how should we think about modeling that and the drivers?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後快速壓縮支付固定掉期期權的按市價計算的影響，也許這是一個愚蠢的問題，但我們是否只是在利率上升時投入一些收益，然後如果利率走向相反，是嗎？按市值計價的負面影響？或者我們應該如何考慮對其和驅動因素進行建模？

Yes, let me expand on that, and I'll put (inaudible) is just modeling the question. Just the strategy of those instruments was to protect capital against really substantive up-rate scenarios. When we purchased them, they were roughly 200 basis points out of the money. You got about 9 to 12 months of forward life and they would be designed to protect 1/3 to maybe as much as 45% of the securities value of risk in those really substance about 200 to 300 basis point shock scenarios.

是的，讓我對此進行擴展，我將（聽不清楚）只是對問題進行建模。這些工具的策略就是保護資本免受真正實質上調的影響。當我們購買它們時，它們的價差大約是 200 個基點。你有大約 9 到 12 個月的遠期壽命，它們的設計目的是在那些真正實質上大約 200 到 300 個基點衝擊的情況下保護 1/3 到可能高達 45% 的證券風險價值。

I think the -- we put a lot of them on early in the second quarter. We added to that portfolio earlier in the third quarter. And we see -- we spent roughly $30 million in premium. So in our view, a pretty small insurance policy for a very significant benefit in those shock scenarios. What we've seen thus far is gains. We saw $18 million of gain in Q2, a $33 million of gain in Q3. That's a $51 million cumulative gain. I'll tell you if you were to strike them right now, you see another gain in the fourth quarter, but clearly to get March at the very end of the quarter.

我認為——我們在第二季初就投入了很多。我們在第三季早些時候添加了該投資組合。我們看到——我們花了大約 3000 萬美元的保費。因此，我們認為，在這些衝擊情況下，一份相當小的保單可以帶來非常顯著的好處。到目前為止，我們所看到的是收益。我們在第二季看到了 1800 萬美元的收益，在第三季看到了 3300 萬美元的收益。這是 5,100 萬美元的累計收益。我會告訴你，如果你現在就打擊他們，你會在第四季看到另一個收益，但顯然會在季度末獲得三月收益。

The answer is yes, in the near term. If rates rise, you would see gain in them. If rates fall, you would see a loss in them. The key thought process for us is how critical is that insurance policy to continue to maintain. And so versus the gain in them. If we continue to hold them, I would expect that over time, they would expire unused and out of the money. You'd see that gain run back through as a negative through fee income if they weren't closed out, and we will be dynamic in continuing to watch the interest rate outlook with a primary focus on protection capital. At this point, again, pretty deminimus cash outlay for a really strong insurance policy.

答案是肯定的，短期內。如果利率上升，你會看到它們的收益。如果利率下降，你會看到它們的損失。我們的關鍵思考過程是繼續維持保單有多重要。相對於它們的收益也是如此。如果我們繼續持有它們，我預計隨著時間的推移，它們將到期未使用並失去資金。如果他們沒有被平倉，你會發現透過費用收入帶來的收益為負，我們將繼續動態地關注利率前景，主要專注於保護資本。在這一點上，對於一份真正強大的保單來說，現金支出又相當微不足道。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin 和 Jefferies。

Steve, I know you talked about generally a little bit of softening demand out there. But I wanted to ask you on your Auto business, I did notice that your originations were up, and obviously, a lot of peers have pulled away from this business, and it's a business that you guys have been historically very strong in and now has really good incremental yield. Just wondering if that's at all an opportunity set and have you kind of -- how do you think through reengaging there as one of those potential growth engines, especially as you've been able to show the deposit stability?

史蒂夫，我知道您總體上談到了需求的疲軟。但我想問一下你們的汽車業務，我確實注意到你們的起源已經上升，顯然，很多同行已經退出了這個業務，這是一個你們歷來非常強大的業務，現在已經不再是這個業務了。非常好的增量產量。只是想知道這是否是一個機會集，您是否認為重新將那裡作為潛在的增長引擎之一，特別是當您已經能夠表現出存款穩定性時？

Ken, great question. And Auto has performed very, very well for us. We have confidence in its credit and spreads are very attractive now. It's a cyclical product and in the past, we -- when spreads have widened, we've chosen to do a bit more. We'll be dynamic as we look at this as the interest rate environment clarifies. And it's a short -- it's a relatively short asset. It's roughly a 2-year average duration. So we like this asset class a lot, and we certainly like it counter cyclically. And that will be something we'll be looking at closely as we go into '24 and '25.

肯，好問題。 Auto 為我們帶來了非常非常好的表現。我們對其信用有信心，目前利差非常有吸引力。這是一種週期性產品，在過去，當利差擴大時，我們選擇做更多的事情。隨著利率環境的明朗，我們將保持動態地看待這個問題。而且它是一個空頭資產——它是一個相對較短的資產。平均持續時間約為 2 年。所以我們非常喜歡這個資產類別，當然喜歡它的逆週期。這將是我們進入 24 和 25 年時將密切關注的事情。

Okay. Great. And then last thing, Zach, just looking at what you moved around a little bit on the swaps portfolios. Can you just kind of walk us through some of your decision trees with regards to this quarter's terminations and locking in here and any anticipated future activity you're thinking about in terms of just the book as it stands going forward?

好的。偉大的。最後一件事，扎克，看看你在掉期投資組合上做了一些變動。您能否向我們介紹一下您關於本季終止和鎖定的一些決策樹，以及您正在考慮的任何預期的未來活動（僅就本書的未來而言）？

Absolutely, absolutely. And I will tell you this is a very dynamic and active discussion, it's a meekly pretty rigorous to data and analysis process that we do. And it's always focused on 2 key strategies. Protecting capital against up rate scenarios and protecting NIM against down rate scenarios. As I alluded in the prior question around the pay fixed swaptions, you did add during the quarter to that, anticipating that rates had the strong potential of moving higher and want to protect capital against that and we did and rate (inaudible) as you saw, clearly, and so that benefited us there.

絕對，絕對。我會告訴你，這是一個非常活躍和活躍的討論，我們所做的數據和分析過程非常嚴格。它始終專注於兩個關鍵策略。保護資本免受利率上升的影響，並保護淨利差免受利率下降的影響。正如我在上一個關於薪酬固定掉期期權的問題中提到的，您確實在本季度對此進行了補充，預計利率具有走高的強大潛力，並希望保護資本免受這種影響，我們確實進行了評級（聽不清楚），正如您所看到的，顯然，這使我們受益匪淺。

But what's interesting as well is that the curve has steepened, the long end has come up as much as it has the opportunity to optimize and can take incremental down rate hedging opportunities in a more efficient manner with less upfront negative carry is increasing. I would say as it relates to that, our view is still lagging into it, no big bets, and we're seeing very significant benefits just come through in the base asset sensitivity, clearly, but over the longer term, I think kind of to '25, '26, '27, we certainly want to protect those revenue streams and we'll be seeking opportunities to increase down rate hedging here if the environment continues to be what it is.

但有趣的是，曲線已經變得陡峭，長端已經上升，因為它有機會優化，並且可以以更有效的方式採取增量降息對沖機會，而前期負利差正在增加。我想說的是，與此相關的是，我們的觀點仍然滯後，沒有大的賭注，而且我們顯然看到基礎資產敏感性剛剛實現了非常顯著的好處，但從長遠來看，我認為到'25、'26、'27，我們當然希望保護這些收入流，如果環境繼續如此，我們將尋求增加降息對沖的機會。

In the meantime, it's more of an optimization, I would say. You saw us exit some received fixed swaps in Q3. This was mainly a shorter duration, just less efficient structures by updating them and increased capacity to (inaudible) for longer structures. We entered in some collars, which would give us the option for down rate hedging if rates are attractive out of the future. And I do suspect that there'll be more of that down rate hedging opportunity as we go throughout Q4 and into early part of next year if the curve continues to be the way it's shaped now.

同時，我想說，這更多的是一種優化。您看到我們在第三季退出了一些收到的固定掉期。這主要是持續時間較短，只是透過更新結構來降低效率，並增加（聽不清楚）較長結構的容量。我們進入了一些項圈，如果未來利率具有吸引力，這將使我們可以選擇下調利率對沖。我確實懷疑，如果曲線繼續保持現在的形狀，那麼在整個第四季度和明年初，將會有更多的降息對沖機會。

Okay. And is there a way of kind of just putting all that together in terms of like the net impact of the swaps book on your NII and is that getting better going forward or worse? Can you just kind of help us put it in context, if you can?

好的。有沒有一種方法可以將所有這些綜合起來，例如掉期帳簿對您的 NII 的淨影響，以及未來會變得更好還是更糟？如果可以的話，您能幫我們把它放在上下文中嗎？

Yes. That's a great question. So just zooming into '24 for a second, based on the swaps that we've got in the portfolio today, I do expect we're seeing roughly a 15 to 17 basis point drag in currency waiver, it was 15 basis points in Q3, I expect it to be roughly 17 bps of drag in Q4 of 2023 from the overall swaps coming through NIM. As I noted one of the earlier questions in this hour, by 2024, I expect that to reduce by about 5 bps, particularly into the second half of the year when the curve starts to fall in the forecast.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。因此，根據我們今天在投資組合中獲得的掉期，稍微放大一下 24 年，我確實預計我們會看到貨幣豁免大約有 15 到 17 個基點的拖累，第三季度是 15 個基點，我預計2023年第四季透過NIM 進行的整體掉期交易將產生約17 個基點的拖累。正如我在本小時早些時候提到的一個問題，到 2024 年，我預計這一數字將減少約 5 個基點，特別是在下半年，當預測中的曲線開始下降時。

Yes. So that's probably the best way to answer your question. In the end, the goal is to call it a NIM really just to support it in this type of range for years to come.

是的。所以這可能是回答你的問題的最佳方式。最後，我們的目標是將其稱為 NIM，實際上只是為了在未來幾年內支持它在這種類型的範圍內。

Our next question is from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

My questions have been asked and answered. Thank you.

我的問題已被提出並得到解答。謝謝。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Jon Arfstrom。

Rich or Brendan, what's the message you want to send us on the outlook for provision and reserves? I mean it feels like you feel fine on credit, but I'm curious if you feel you need to build reserves and how you want us to think about provision?

Rich 或 Brendan，您想向我們傳達的關於供應和儲備前景的訊息是什麼？我的意思是，感覺您對信貸感覺良好，但我很好奇您是否認為需要建立儲備以及您希望我們如何考慮準備金？

Yes. Let me just start with kind of where we are in the quarter. We bumped up by 3 basis points, our coverage ratio. It was nearly a 1% dollar increase. We went up $26 million, and we put most of that into the commercial real estate reserve just given the uncertainty that we've got there. Where we go from here, I mean, we don't give specific guidance around the coverage ratio, particularly around the provision. But it's going to depend on where the economy goes to the extent that we see further weakening, we'll reevaluate it. But I would imagine that any builds from here would be similar to what you would see in the third quarter, fairly nominal from a dollar standpoint, we might be moving some things around.

是的。讓我先介紹一下我們本季的情況。我們的覆蓋率提高了 3 個基點。美元漲幅接近 1%。我們增加了 2600 萬美元，考慮到我們所面臨的不確定性，我們將其中大部分投入了商業房地產儲備。我的意思是，我們不會就覆蓋率，特別是在條款方面給予具體指引。但這將取決於經濟走向，如果我們看到進一步疲軟，我們將重新評估它。但我想，這裡的任何構建都將與您在第三季度看到的類似，從美元的角度來看相當名義上，我們可能會改變一些東西。

But in general, we feel really good about where the reserve is right now. And as we get to the other side of this and the economic outlook starts to improve, I could see us bringing the coverage ratio back down into that 1.60% range over time. So we'll look at it every quarter, Jon, and -- but we feel good about the 1.96% right now.

但總的來說，我們對保護區目前的狀況感到非常滿意。當我們到達這一點並且經濟前景開始改善時，我可以看到我們會隨著時間的推移將覆蓋率回落至 1.60% 的範圍。所以我們每季都會關註一下，喬恩，但我們現在對 1.96% 感覺很好。

Okay. Late in the call, Steve, but just a bigger picture question for you. You had a good quarter. But when I saw the guide for the fourth quarter for lower NII and higher expenses and then for the expense guide for '24, you kind of pulled back some of that optimism, I guess my bigger -- and I think you understand that. But my bigger picture question is, what's the message for '24? Is that -- is it a year of investment and you're not going to push revenue growth? Or are we just all being a little bit too pessimistic here and just focusing on the expenses and some of the near-term NII headwinds?

好的。史蒂夫，電話遲到了，但只是向你提出一個更大的問題。你度過了一個美好的季度。但是，當我看到第四季度的 NII 較低和費用較高的指南以及 24 年的費用指南時，你有點回落了一些樂觀情緒，我想我的更大 - 我想你明白這一點。但我更大的問題是，24 世紀要傳達的訊息是什麼？是不是──今年是投資的一年，你們不會推動營收成長？或者我們只是有點過於悲觀，只關注費用和一些近期的國家資訊基礎設施逆風？

Zach also talked about improving net interest income and NIM in '24. So I don't think of that as our outlook is not of a negative nature. We're investing in the businesses, we're going to do a number of things that I think will position us really well for the medium term, like '25, '26 in terms of further growth. We'll have some new capabilities and some additional talent in the company. We'll be in a position to manage with data and processes even better as we go forward. We're accelerating some of our multiyear plans into '24. And as Zach said, that's -- that growth outlook for expenses in '25 comes back to a more normal level.

札克也談到了 24 年淨利息收入和淨利差的改善。所以我不認為這是因為我們的觀點並不消極。我們正在投資業務，我們將做一些我認為將使我們在中期處於有利位置的事情，例如'25，'26在進一步增長方面。我們公司將擁有一些新的能力和一些額外的人才。隨著我們的前進，我們將能夠更好地管理資料和流程。我們正在將一些多年計劃加速到 24 世紀。正如扎克所說，25 年的支出成長前景將恢復到更正常的水平。

So this is us being intentional, position the company to play OpEx and we think we're in that position. We are confident on our credit. We've got good and growing capital on both the gross and an adjusted basis. Liquidity is exceptional. The deposit growth continues. And as you saw in 2010 to those who were around in that period of time, there are moments to take advantage. That's when we launched Fair Play, that's when we do a number of things in the commercial bank and really opened up SBA lending, et cetera. We think this coming year is one of those moments, and we intend to put (inaudible).

因此，我們有意將公司定位為營運支出，我們認為我們處於這個位置。我們對我們的信用充滿信心。無論從總額或調整後的角度來看，我們都擁有良好且不斷成長的資本。流動性非常出色。存款持續成長。正如您在 2010 年看到的那樣，那些在那個時期的人，有一些可以利用的時刻。那時我們推出了公平競爭，那時我們在商業銀行做了很多事情，並真正開放了 SBA 貸款，等等。我們認為來年就是這樣的時刻之一，我們打算把它放在（聽不清楚）。

Okay. So it's -- okay, that's good. I had to ask it, Steve, I'm getting asked that question, but I just needed to know if you're optimistic or pessimistic for 2024, and it sounds like you're...

好的。所以，好吧，那很好。我必須問這個問題，史蒂夫，有人問我這個問題，但我只是想知道你對 2024 年是樂觀還是悲觀，聽起來你是…

We are optimistic about '24 and beyond. And beyond, Jon.

我們對 24 年及以後持樂觀態度。除此之外，喬恩。

Our final question is from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

Steve, I've heard all the commentary for the past hour on expenses. And I guess what I still don't understand is, is the step-up in expense growth in 2024, is that tied to you seeing a better revenue environment to absorb a higher level of spend or something going on that's going to require you to spend more in 2024 agnostic for the revenue environment?

史蒂夫，過去一小時我聽到了所有關於費用的評論。我想我仍然不明白的是，2024 年費用增長的加快是否與您看到更好的收入環境來吸收更高水平的支出有關，或者與正在發生的事情需要您2024 年支出更多，與收入環境無關？

So we're gearing the company to manage a growth dynamic that we expect will be in place in '24 and beyond. We also are accelerating certain multiyear investments into 2024, so we're in an even better position with data, and it's principally data to manage -- in managing company, right? We're at different scale outpost TCF. We saw a lot of unique activity in March around Silicon Valley, things move very quickly. We want and our Board wants better data, better access to information that we have and pushing a button together.

因此，我們正在調整公司以管理我們預計在 24 年及以後實現的成長動力。我們也正在加速某些多年投資到 2024 年，因此我們在數據方面處於更好的位置，而且主要是要管理的數據 - 在管理公司方面，對吧？我們處於不同規模的 TCF 前哨基地。三月我們在矽谷周圍看到了很多獨特的活動，事情進展得很快。我們希望，我們的董事會也希望獲得更好的數據，更好地存取我們擁有的信息，並共同按下按鈕。

So we're -- we've been on a multiyear journey. We're going to pull that forward and position the company to be even stronger. We've been managing market risk as you've seen with us hedging about half of our AFS portfolio since '19. But our processes have not then as automated as we would like them to be, given the speed at which things can change. And so we said we would take advantage of lessons learned out of Silicon Valley and others in this most recent episode, and that has resulted in us making a number of adjustments in our treasury and outlook policies that I think will prove to further bolster our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite and then these investments in data and some other areas in addition to the revenue area investments, will also position us to more effectively manage the company on a real-time basis.

所以我們——我們已經踏上了多年的旅程。我們將推動這一進程，使公司變得更加強大。如您所見，自 19 年以來，我們一直在管理市場風險，我們對沖了大約一半的 AFS 投資組合。但考慮到事物變化的速度，我們的流程還沒有像我們希望的那樣自動化。因此，我們表示，我們將在最近的這一事件中利用從矽谷和其他地方吸取的經驗教訓，這導致我們對我們的財務和前景政策進行了一些調整，我認為這將進一步增強我們的總量中等到低風險偏好，然後除了收入領域投資之外，在數據和其他一些領域的投資也將使我們能夠更有效地即時管理公司。

And will this step the pace of investment? Is that a 2024 story? Or is it a 2024 and beyond story?

這會加快投資步伐嗎？這是2024年的故事嗎？還是這是一個 2024 年及以後的故事？

But we're trying to pull things forward into '24 as Zach said, and as we think about '25 and beyond, we'll be back to a more normalized. Again, this is -- this was an election (inaudible), an overall view of trying to take advantage of the environment that we see in '24 and beyond and position the bank for growth. I like this what we did in (inaudible).

但正如扎克所說，我們正在努力將事情推進到 24 年，當我們考慮 25 年及以後時，我們將回到更正常化的狀態。再說一次，這是一場選舉（聽不清楚），這是一次總體觀點，試圖利用我們在 24 年及以後看到的環境，為銀行的成長定位。我喜歡我們所做的（聽不清楚）。

Well, it sounds like it's partially opportunistic and partially you need to invest in systems, right? It sounds like that's the portion of this, too.

嗯，聽起來這部分是機會主義的，部分是你需要投資系統，對吧？聽起來這也是其中的一部分。

We had multiyear plans that were accelerating. That's choice.

我們制定了多年計劃，並且正在加速實施。這就是選擇。

If I could ask one last question. So I don't know if it was (inaudible) recently was asked about crossing $100 billion. Well, you really don't want to cross organically, right, you don't want to be $101 billion. But you guys had $186 billion today. How do you see this with these proposed changes coming? Do you think you're in a good spot at this asset level? Or do you think you need to boost size and scale to just given what this potentially comes?

如果我可以問最後一個問題的話。所以我不知道最近是否有人（聽不清楚）被問到突破 1000 億美元的問題。嗯，你真的不想有機交叉，對吧，你不想成為1010億美元。但你們今天有 1860 億美元。您如何看待這些建議的變更？您認為您在這個資產水準上處於有利位置嗎？或者您認為您需要擴大規模和規模以適應這種潛在的情況？

We own the risk at risk management. We're going to maintain this aggregate moderate to low-risk appetite. We've done things well in the past. We'll continue to do them in the future. I think the size of the business is not the only determinant. I think the business model itself is very, very important. Part of the strategy over time is to be deep in certain markets for our consumer and regional bank, giving us brand awareness and other attributes that let us continue to grow the core. And then we've invested selectively in a variety of commercial businesses.

我們在風險管理中承擔風險。我們將維持這整體中度至低度的風險偏好。我們過去做得很好。未來我們將繼續這樣做。我認為企業規模並不是唯一的決定因素。我認為商業模式本身就非常非常重要。隨著時間的推移，策略的一部分是深入我們的消費者和區域銀行的某些市場，提高我們的品牌知名度和其他屬性，使我們能夠繼續發展核心業務。然後我們有選擇地投資各種商業業務。

Our asset finance or equipment finance ABL of distribution finance, a number of these businesses that -- and beyond the specialty businesses that are national in nature, complemented by things that we've added on the payment space last year. The acquisition on the investment banking side, all of which give us more pride and capabilities to strengthen our customer base. And we we're going to continue that. We've alluded to additional talent and capabilities in the near term, and we expect to be in a position to start talking about that. But all of that's in that 4% guidance for you for next year.

我們的資產融資或設備融資 ABL 的分銷融資，其中一些業務——除了全國性的專業業務之外，還輔以我們去年在支付領域添加的業務。投資銀行方面的收購，所有這些都讓我們更有自豪感和能力來加強我們的客戶基礎。我們將繼續這樣做。我們已經提到了近期的額外人才和能力，我們希望能夠開始談論這一點。但所有這些都包含在明年 4% 的指導中。

Okay. So we're grateful for you joining us today. I just want to compliment Rich (inaudible) one more time because this last year, Rich's got a retirement coming at the end of the year. And Rich has just been a terrific leader. We've greatly benefited from your experiences. Rich, you position us well as you've heard on the call. So thank you very much.

好的。因此，我們非常感謝您今天加入我們。我只想再次讚美里奇（聽不清楚），因為去年，里奇將在年底退休。里奇是一位出色的領導者。我們從您的經歷中受益匪淺。 Rich，正如您在電話中聽到的那樣，您對我們的定位很好。非常感謝。

In closing, we're pleased with the third quarter results as we dynamically manage through this environment. We're bearing what we believe we're very well positioned for times such as leased with strong credit quality, improving capital ratios and robust liquidity and is supported by consistent efforts from our 20,000 colleagues across the bank to deliver these results. We are a team, you know this a disciplined operators and we're executing on our strategy that we outlined last year's Investor Day, and we're driving shareholder value. We're optimistic we're going to continue to do that in the years to come. And as a reminder, we're all aligned, the Board executives and our colleagues, our top 10 shareholder collectively, and we feel the (inaudible) of this market pull back. We're very focused on driving consistent strong performance. So thank you for your support and interest in Huntington, and have a great day.

最後，我們對第三季的業績感到滿意，因為我們在這種環境中進行動態管理。我們相信我們在這個時期處於非常有利的位置，例如具有良好的信用品質、改善的資本比率和強勁的流動性的租賃，並得到全行 20,000 名同事的持續努力的支持，以實現這些成果。我們是一個團隊，你知道這是一個紀律嚴明的運營商，我們正在執行我們去年投資者日概述的策略，我們正在推動股東價值。我們樂觀地認為，未來幾年我們將繼續這樣做。提醒一下，我們都是一致的，董事會高層和我們的同事，我們的十大股東集體，我們感覺到這個市場的回調（聽不清楚）。我們非常專注於推動持續強勁的業績。感謝您對亨廷頓的支持和興趣，祝您有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。