Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the Huntington Bancshares' second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

    歡迎參加 Huntington Bancshares 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    (操作員指示)謹此提醒,本次會議正在錄製中。

  • At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to your host, Tim Sedabres, Director of Investor Relations.

    現在,我將把會議交給東道主投資者關係總監 Tim Sedabres。

  • Please go ahead, sir.

    請繼續,先生。

  • Tim Sedabres - Executive Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

    Tim Sedabres - Executive Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator.

    謝謝你,接線生。

  • Welcome, everyone, and good morning.

    歡迎大家,早安。

  • Copies of the slides we will be reviewing today can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website, www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded and a replay will be available starting about one hour from the close of the call.

    我們今天要審查的幻燈片副本可以在我們網站 www.huntington.com 的投資者關係部分找到。謹此提醒,我們正在對此通話進行錄音,並在通話結束後約一小時內提供重播。

  • Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President, and CEO; and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer, Brendan Lawlor, Chief Credit Officer will join us for the Q&A.

    今天我們的主講人是董事長、總裁兼執行長 Steve Steinour;財務長 Zach Wasserman、首席信貸官 Brendan Lawlor 將參加我們的問答。

  • Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statements disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

    收益文件(包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非公認會計原則資訊)可在我們網站的投資者關係部分取得。

  • With that, let me now turn it over to Steve.

    現在讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

  • Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

    Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Tim.

    謝謝,蒂姆。

  • Good morning, everyone, and welcome.

    大家早安,歡迎光臨。

  • Thank you for joining the call today.

    感謝您今天加入通話。

  • We're pleased to announce our second quarter results, which Zach will detail later.

    我們很高興宣布第二季的業績,扎克稍後將詳細介紹。

  • These results are supported by our colleagues who live our purpose every day as we make people's lives better, help businesses thrive and strengthen the communities we serve.

    這些成果得到了我們同事的支持,他們每天都在實踐我們的目標,讓人們的生活更美好,幫助企業蓬勃發展,並加強我們所服務的社區。

  • Now onto slide 4, there are five key messages we want to share with you today.

    現在轉到投影片 4,我們今天想與您分享五個關鍵資訊。

  • First, we are intensely focused on executing our organic growth strategies and leveraging our position of strength.

    首先,我們高度重視執行我們的有機成長策略並利用我們的優勢地位。

  • Our robust liquidity and capital base put us in a position to drive growth, and we are investing in new geographies and businesses in addition to existing businesses.

    我們強大的流動性和資本基礎使我們能夠推動成長,除了現有業務之外,我們還投資於新的地區和業務。

  • Second, we expanded net interest income, and we expect it to continue to grow sequentially from the first quarter trough.

    其次,我們擴大了淨利息收入,我們預計將較第一季低點繼續環比成長。

  • This outlook is supported by accelerating loan growth and sustained deposit growth to power future revenue expansion.

    這一前景得到了加速貸款成長和持續存款成長的支持,從而推動了未來收入的擴張。

  • Third, we drove fee revenues higher in the quarter with support from our three major focus areas, capital markets, payments, and wealth management.

    第三,在資本市場、支付和財富管理三大重點領域的支持下,我們在本季提高了手續費收入。

  • Fourth, we are achieving strong credit performance with stable net charge-offs, which are tracking as expected for the year.

    第四,我們實現了強勁的信貸表現和穩定的淨沖銷,符合今年的預期。

  • This is a direct result of our sustained and disciplined approach to credit over many years and our aggregate moderate-to-low risk appetite.

    這是我們多年來持續且嚴格的信貸方針以及我們整體中度至低度風險偏好的直接結果。

  • Finally, we believe the net result of these actions will deliver expanded profitability from here and into 2025 and beyond.

    最後,我們相信這些行動的最終結果將從現在到 2025 年及以後帶來更大的獲利能力。

  • I will move us on to slide 5 to recap our performance.

    我將讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 來回顧我們的表現。

  • We delivered accelerated loan growth with average balances growing by $2 billion from a year ago.

    我們實現了貸款加速成長,平均餘額比一年前增加了 20 億美元。

  • Annualized loan growth in the quarter was 4.7%.

    該季度的年化貸款成長率為 4.7%。

  • Average deposit balances also increased growing $8 billion or 5.5% over the past year.

    去年平均存款餘額也增加了 80 億美元,成長 5.5%。

  • Capital further strengthened with reported common equity Tier 1 of 10.4% and adjusted common equity Tier 1 of 8.6%, inclusive of AOCI.

    資本進一步增強,報告的一級普通股為 10.4%,調整後的一級普通股為 8.6%(包括 AOCI)。

  • Liquidity remains top-tier with coverage of uninsured deposits of 204%, a peer-leading level.

    流動性仍處於領先水平,未保險存款覆蓋率達到 204%,處於同業領先水準。

  • Credit quality was stable as net charge-offs improved by 1 basis point from the first quarter to 29 basis points.

    信貸品質穩定,淨沖銷較第一季提高 1 個基點至 29 個基點。

  • We are sustaining momentum in the growth of our primary bank relationships with consumer and business increasing by 2% and 4%, respectively, year over year.

    我們與消費者和企業的主要銀行關係保持成長勢頭,年比分別成長 2% 和 4%。

  • Again, this past quarter, we seized the opportunity to add talented bankers.

    上個季度,我們再次抓住機會增加了才華橫溢的銀行家。

  • We're pleased to add new deposit focused capabilities in the mortgage servicing and homeowners association, title, and escrow areas.

    我們很高興在抵押貸款服務和房主協會、產權和託管領域添加新的以存款為中心的功能。

  • These new teams build upon the prior investments we've made in the Carolinas, Texas, and three new, especially commercial verticals as we shared last month, we are bringing in-house our merchant acquiring business within our payments organization to further accelerate revenues and capabilities, as I mentioned, our disciplined positioning of robust capital and liquidity enables our ability to sustain a growth posture.

    這些新團隊建立在我們之前在卡羅來納州、德克薩斯州以及我們上個月分享的三個新的、特別是商業垂直領域的投資的基礎上,我們正​​在將我們的商家收單業務納入我們的支付組織內部,以進一步加速收入和成長。

  • Capital continues to increase, with adjusted CET1 up approximately 50 basis points from a year ago.

    資本持續增加,調整後的CET1較去年同期上升約50個基點。

  • Liquidity continues to be robust, supported by sustained deposit gathering.

    在存款持續聚集的支撐下,流動性持續強勁。

  • We were pleased to once again deliver top quartile results in this year's CCAR stress test exercise with Huntington's modeled credit losses second best in the peer group.

    我們很高興在今年的 CCAR 壓力測試中再次取得前四分之一的結果,亨廷頓模型信用損失在同行中排名第二。

  • Our stress capital buffer was reduced and came in at the minimum level of 2.5%.

    我們的壓力資本緩衝減少,最低水準為 2.5%。

  • Across our markets, we see the broader economy continuing to hold up.

    在我們的市場中,我們看到整體經濟持續保持強勁。

  • Our new initiatives, teams and geographies provide growth opportunities even as the broader environment for customer loan demand remains somewhat muted.

    儘管客戶貸款需求的大環境仍然有些低迷,但我們的新措施、團隊和地理提供了成長機會。

  • Zach over to you to provide more detail on our financial performance.

    扎克請您提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thanks Steve, and good morning, everyone.

    謝謝史蒂夫,大家早安。

  • Slide 6 provides highlights of our second quarter results.

    幻燈片 6 提供了我們第二季業績的亮點。

  • We reported earnings per common share of $0.30. The quarter included a $6 million notable item related to the updated FTIC deposit insurance fund special assessment.

    我們公佈的每股普通股收益為 0.30 美元。該季度包括與更新的 FTIC 存款保險基金特別評估相關的 600 萬美元值得注意項目。

  • This did not have an impact on EPS.

    這對每股盈餘沒有影響。

  • Return on tangible common equity or ROTCE came in at 16.1% for the quarter.

    本季有形普通股回報率 (ROTCE) 為 16.1%。

  • Adjusted for notable items, ROTCE was 16.2%.

    在值得注意的項目進行調整後,ROTCE 為 16.2%。

  • Average loan balances increased by $2 billion or 1.7% versus Q2 last year.

    與去年第二季相比,平均貸款餘額增加了 20 億美元,即 1.7%。

  • Average deposits continued to grow, increasing by $8 billion or 5.5% on a year-over-year basis.

    平均存款持續成長,年增 80 億美元,成長 5.5%。

  • Credit quality remains strong, with net charge-offs of 29 basis points.

    信貸品質依然強勁,淨沖銷額為 29 個基點。

  • Allowance for credit losses decreased by 2 basis points and ended the quarter at 1.95%.

    信貸損失準備金下降 2 個基點,季末為 1.95%。

  • Adjusted CET1 ended the quarter at 8.6% and increased roughly 10 basis points from last quarter.

    調整後的 CET1 本季末為 8.6%,比上季增加約 10 個基點。

  • Supported by earnings, tangible book value per share has increased by nearly 8% year over year.

    在獲利的支撐下,每股有形帳面價值年增近8%。

  • Turning to slide 7.

    轉到投影片 7。

  • Consistent with our plan and prior guidance, loan growth is accelerating quarter over quarter.

    與我們的計劃和先前的指導一致,貸款成長逐季加速。

  • Our sequential growth in loans into Q2 of $1.5 billion was more than double the sequential dollar growth into the first quarter.

    第二季貸款連續成長 15 億美元,是第一季連續美元成長的兩倍多。

  • This likewise drove acceleration of loan growth on a year-over-year basis from 1.2% in Q1 to 1.7% in Q2.

    這同樣推動貸款年增率從第一季的 1.2% 上升至第二季的 1.7%。

  • At our current run rate of growth, 4.7% annualized, we are on track for the full year plan.

    按照目前 4.7% 的年化成長率,我們正在按計劃實現全年計劃。

  • We expect the pace of future year-over-year loan growth to accelerate over the course of 2024.

    我們預計 2024 年未來貸款年增率將加快。

  • Loan growth in the quarter was supported by both commercial and consumer loan categories.

    本季的貸款成長受到商業和消費貸款類別的支持。

  • Total commercial loans increased by $689 million.

    商業貸款總額增加 6.89 億美元。

  • Excluding commercial real estate, commercial growth totaled $1.1 billion for the quarter.

    不包括商業房地產,本季商業成長總額為 11 億美元。

  • Over the past year, CRE balances have declined by $1.3 billion with the concentration of CRE as percent of total loans declining 1.5 percentage points from 10.9% to 9.6% today.

    過去一年,CRE 餘額減少了 13 億美元,CRE 佔貸款總額的百分比下降了 1.5 個百分點,從 10.9% 降至目前的 9.6%。

  • Even as we have managed CRE balances lower, all other loan balances have increased by over $4 billion or 4% from the prior year.

    儘管我們對 CRE 餘額進行了較低的管理,但所有其他貸款餘額仍比前一年增加了 40 億美元以上,即 4%。

  • Drivers of commercial loan growth in the second quarter included $600 million from new geographies and specialty verticals.

    第二季商業貸款成長的驅動因素包括來自新地區和專業垂直領域的 6 億美元。

  • This included fund finance, Carolinas, Texas, healthcare asset-based lending, and Native American financial services.

    這包括基金融資、卡羅來納州、德克薩斯州、醫療保健資產貸款和美洲原住民金融服務。

  • Auto floorplan increased by $279 million.

    汽車平面圖增加了 2.79 億美元。

  • Regional and business banking increased by $233 million.

    區域和商業銀行業務增加了 2.33 億美元。

  • In total consumer loans, average balances grew by $757 million or 1.4% for the quarter.

    在消費貸款總額中,本季平均餘額增加了 7.57 億美元,即 1.4%。

  • Within consumer, average auto balances increased by $436 million.

    在消費者中,平均汽車餘額增加了 4.36 億美元。

  • Residential mortgage increased by $199 million, benefiting from production as well as slower prepay speeds.

    受益於生產以及預付款速度放緩,住宅抵押貸款增加了 1.99 億美元。

  • RV and marine balances increased by $74 million.

    房車和船舶餘額增加了 7,400 萬美元。

  • Turning to slide 8.

    轉到投影片 8。

  • As noted, we drove another quarter of solid deposit growth.

    如前所述,我們推動了存款又一個季度的穩健成長。

  • Average deposits increased by $2.9 billion or 1.9% in the second quarter.

    第二季平均存款增加 29 億美元,成長 1.9%。

  • Total cumulative deposit beta was 45%.

    累計存款貝塔總額為 45%。

  • Cost of deposits increased by 9 basis points in the second quarter, which matched the increase in earning asset yields.

    第二季存款成本上升 9 個基點,與生息資產收益率的上升相符。

  • This was half the rate of change in deposit costs we saw into the first quarter, a continuation of the decelerating trends in funding costs, even as deposit growth increased.

    這是我們在第一季看到的存款成本變化率的一半,儘管存款成長有所增加,但融資成本仍呈下降趨勢。

  • Within the quarter, there was notable further deceleration with June deposit costs only slightly higher than May.

    本季內,存款成本進一步顯著放緩,僅略高於 5 月。

  • We are actively implementing our down beta action plan, which is further supported by the robust deposit growth we have delivered.

    我們正在積極實施我們的下貝塔行動計劃,我們實現的強勁存款成長進一步支持了這項計劃。

  • This position is allowing us to selectively reduce rates and change other terms across the portfolio in advance of potential rate cuts later this year.

    這一立場使我們能夠在今年稍後可能降息之前有選擇地降低利率並改變投資組合的其他條款。

  • Turning to slide 9, our cumulative deposit growth since the start of the rate cycle of 7.9% is differentiated versus the preponderance of peers.

    轉向投影片 9,自 7.9% 的利率週期開始以來,我們的累積存款成長與大多數同業有所不同。

  • We have outperformed by double digit percentage points on deposit growth over this time.

    在此期間,我們的存款成長表現優於兩位數百分點。

  • As a result, we've been able to fund loan growth with deposits and at the same time manage the loan to deposit ratio lower over the past year, which will support continued acceleration of lending.

    因此,我們能夠用存款為貸款成長提供資金,同時將貸存比控制在過去一年較低的水平,這將支持貸款的持續加速。

  • Turning to slide 10.

    轉到投影片 10。

  • Non-interest bearing mix shift is tracking closely to our forecast.

    無息組合轉變與我們的預測密切相關。

  • Average non-interest bearing balances decreased by $280 million or 0.9% from the prior quarter.

    平均無息餘額較上一季減少 2.8 億美元,即 0.9%。

  • This represented continued deceleration of mix shift, consistent with our expectations.

    這顯示混合轉變持續減速,與我們的預期一致。

  • Within the consumer deposit base, average non-interest-bearing deposits were modestly higher quarter over quarter.

    在消費者存款基礎中,平均無利息存款較上季小幅上升。

  • This was offset by a modest decelerating trend of lower non-interest-bearing balances from commercial depositors.

    這被商業儲戶無息餘額減少的小幅減速趨勢所抵消。

  • On to slide 11.

    轉到投影片 11。

  • For the quarter, net interest income increased by $25 billion or 1.9% to $1.325 billion.

    本季淨利息收入增加 250 億美元,成長 1.9%,達到 13.25 億美元。

  • We are pleased to have delivered growth off the trough levels from last quarter and believe this inflection in revenues will continue into the third and fourth quarters.

    我們很高興實現了上季低谷水準的成長,並相信收入的這種變化將持續到第三和第四季。

  • Net interest margin was 2.99% for the second quarter.

    第二季淨利差為2.99%。

  • Reconciling the change in NIM from Q1, we saw a decrease of 2 basis points.

    與第一季相比,NIM 的變化得到了調整,我們看到下降了 2 個基點。

  • This was due to higher cash balances with spread net of free funds flat versus the prior quarter.

    這是由於現金餘額增加,扣除自由資金後的利差與上一季持平。

  • We continue to benefit from fixed rate loan repricing with loan yields expanding by 9 basis points from the prior quarter.

    我們持續受惠於固定利率貸款重新定價,貸款收益率較上一季上升 9 個基點。

  • As a reminder, we continue to analyze and develop action plans for a wide range of potential economic and interest rate scenarios for both short-term rates as well as the slope and belly of the curve.

    謹此提醒,我們將繼續針對短期利率以及曲線斜率和曲線腹部的各種潛在經濟和利率情境分析和製定行動計畫。

  • Our working assumption for the second half of the year is aligned with a forward curve, which projects two rate cuts by year end.

    我們對今年下半年的工作假設與遠期曲線一致,預計到年底將有兩次降息。

  • Based on that outlook, we see net interest margin relatively stable over the next two quarters at or around the 3% level, plus or minus a few basis points.

    基於這個前景,我們認為未來兩季的淨利差相對穩定在 3% 左右,上下浮動幾個基點。

  • Turning to slide 12.

    轉到投影片 12。

  • Our level of cash and securities increased as we benefited from higher funding balances from sustained deposit growth.

    由於存款持續成長帶來的資金餘額增加,我們的現金和證券水準有所增加。

  • We expect cash and securities as a percent of total average assets to remain approximately 28% as the balance sheet grows over time.

    隨著資產負債表隨著時間的推移而增長,我們預計現金和證券佔總資產的百分比將保持在 28% 左右。

  • We are reinvesting securities cash flows and short duration HQLA, consistent with our approach to manage the unhedged duration of the portfolio at approximately the current range.

    我們正在對證券現金流量和短期 HQLA 進行再投資,這與我們在目前範圍內管理投資組合未對沖久期的方法一致。

  • Turning to slide 13.

    轉到投影片 13。

  • As a reminder, our hedging program is designed with two primary objectives to protect margin and revenue in down rate environments and to protect capital and potential uprate scenarios.

    提醒一下,我們的對沖計畫的設計有兩個主要目標,即在利率下調的環境下保護利潤和收入,並保護資本和潛在的利率上漲情況。

  • As of June 30, our effective hedge position included $17.4 billion of received fixed swaps, $5.5 billion of floor spreads, and $10.7 billion of pay-fixed swaps.

    截至 6 月 30 日,我們的有效對沖部位包括 174 億美元的已收固定掉期、55 億美元的下限利差和 107 億美元的支付固定掉期。

  • The pay-fixed swaps, which successfully protected capital have a weighted average life of just over three years and will begin to mature over the course of 2025.

    這些成功保護資本的固定支付掉期的加權平均壽命只有三年多一點,並將在 2025 年開始到期。

  • As these instruments mature, our asset sensitivity will reduce.

    隨著這些工具的成熟,我們的資產敏感度將會降低。

  • Furthermore, at a measured pace over the past several quarters, we have added more forward-starting received fixed swaps with effective dates starting generally in the first half of 2025.

    此外,在過去幾個季度中,我們以謹慎的速度增加了更多的遠期接收固定掉期,生效日期通常從 2025 年上半年開始。

  • The impact of both the maturities of the pay-fixed swaps and the beginning effectiveness of the received fixed swaps will reduce asset sensitivity in a down rate scenario by approximately one-third by the middle of next year.

    到明年年中,支付固定掉期的到期日和收到的固定掉期的期初有效性的影響將使利率下調情況下的資產敏感性降低約三分之一。

  • As always, we will continue to dynamically manage our hedging program to achieve our objectives of capital protection and NIM stabilization.

    一如既往,我們將繼續動態管理對沖計劃,以實現資本保護和淨利差穩定的目標。

  • Moving on to slide 14.

    繼續看投影片 14。

  • Our fee revenue growth is driven by three substantive areas, capital markets, payments, and wealth management.

    我們的手續費收入成長由三個實質領域推動:資本市場、支付和財富管理。

  • Collectively, these three areas represent nearly two-thirds of our total fee revenues.

    總的來說,這三個領域占我們總費用收入的近三分之二。

  • Within capital markets, revenues increased $17 million from the prior quarter, driven by higher advisory revenues.

    在資本市場方面,由於諮詢收入增加,收入比上一季增加了 1700 萬美元。

  • Commercial banking related capital markets revenues were stable quarter to quarter.

    商業銀行相關資本市場營收季環比穩定。

  • We expect to sustain and build upon this level over the back half of the year, supported by robust advisory pipelines in Capstone, as well as expected new commercial loan production.

    我們預計,在 Capstone 強大的諮詢管道以及預期的新商業貸款生產的支持下,今年下半年將維持並鞏固這一水平。

  • Payments and cash management revenue was up $8 million in the second quarter and increased 5% year over year.

    第二季支付和現金管理收入增加 800 萬美元,年增 5%。

  • Treasury management fees within payments continue to grow strongly at 11% year over year as we deepen customer penetration.

    隨著我們加深客戶滲透率,支付中的資金管理費持續以 11% 的速度強勁成長。

  • Our wealth and asset management revenues increased 8% from the prior year.

    我們的財富和資產管理收入比上年增長8%。

  • Advisory relationships have increased by 8% year over year, and assets under management have increased by 17% on a year-over-year basis.

    諮詢關係年增 8%,管理資產年增 17%。

  • Moving on to slide 15.

    繼續看投影片 15。

  • On an overall level, GAAP non-interest income increased by $24 million to $491 million for the second quarter, increasing from the seasonal first quarter low.

    總體而言,第二季 GAAP 非利息收入增加了 2,400 萬美元,達到 4.91 億美元,高於第一季的季節性低點。

  • Excluding the impacts of the CRT transactions, non-interest income increased by $31 million quarter over quarter.

    排除CRT交易的影響,非利息收入較上季增加3,100萬美元。

  • Moving on to slide 16 on expenses.

    繼續看關於費用的幻燈片 16。

  • GAAP non-interest expense decreased by $20 million and underlying core expenses increased by $13 million.

    GAAP 非利息費用減少了 2,000 萬美元,基本核心費用增加了 1,300 萬美元。

  • During the quarter, we incurred $6 million of incremental expense related to the FDIC deposit insurance fund special assessment.

    本季度,我們發生了 600 萬美元與 FDIC 存款保險基金特別評估相關的增量費用。

  • Excluding this item, core expenses came in better than our expectations for the quarter, with approximately half of the lower than expected result driven by discrete benefits not expected to recur.

    排除這一項目,本季度的核心費用好於我們的預期,其中大約一半的低於預期的結果是由預計不會再次出現的離散收益造成的。

  • The increase in core expenses quarter over quarter was primarily driven by personnel expenses as we saw higher revenue driven compensation and incentives due to production, as well as the full quarter impact of merit increases effective in March.

    核心費用較上季成長主要是由人事費用推動的,因為我們看到生產帶來的收入驅動的薪酬和激勵措施增加,以及 3 月生效的績效成長對整個季度的影響。

  • We continue to forecast 4.5% core expense growth for the full year.

    我們持續預測全年核心費用將成長 4.5%。

  • As we look into the third quarter, we expect core expenses to be higher at approximately $1.140 billion.

    展望第三季度,我們預計核心支出將增加至約 11.4 億美元。

  • There may be some variability given revenue driven compensation.

    鑑於收入驅動的薪酬可能存在一些變化。

  • Slide 17 recaps our capital position.

    投影片 17 回顧了我們的資本狀況。

  • Common equity Tier 1 ended the quarter at 10.4%.

    普通股一級資本本季結束時為 10.4%。

  • Our adjusted CET1 ratio, inclusive of AOCI was 8.6% and has grown 50 basis points from a year ago.

    調整後的 CET1 比率(包括 AOCI)為 8.6%,比一年前增加了 50 個基點。

  • Our capital management strategy remains focused on driving capital ratios higher, while maintaining our top priority to fund high-return loan growth.

    我們的資本管理策略仍專注於提高資本比率,同時保持為高回報貸款成長提供資金的首要任務。

  • We intend to drive adjusted CET1 inclusive of AOCI into our operating range of 9% to 10%.

    我們打算將調整後的 CET1(包括 AOCI)納入我們 9% 至 10% 的營運範圍。

  • Slide 18 highlights our results from this year's CCAR exercise.

    投影片 18 重點介紹了我們今年 CCAR 演習的結果。

  • We were pleased to once again continue our trend of top-quartile performance for expected credit losses from the stress test.

    我們很高興再次延續壓力測試中預期信用損失表現排名前四分之一的趨勢。

  • This year's result was second best compared to peers.

    與同行相比,今年的成績排名第二。

  • Our SCB improved to the 2.5% minimum and our modeled stress CET1 ratio was the second best in our peer group.

    我們的 SCB 提高到最低 2.5%,我們模擬的壓力 CET1 比率在同行組中排名第二。

  • Our ACL as a percentage of CCAR modeled losses continued to be the highest level compared to our peers.

    與同業相比,我們的 ACL 佔 CCAR 模型損失的百分比仍然處於最高水準。

  • These results validate the consistency of our long-standing approach to maintaining an aggregate moderate-to-low risk appetite.

    這些結果驗證了我們長期以來維持整體中低風險偏好的方法的一致性。

  • On slide 19, credit quality is coming in as we expected and continues to perform very well.

    在投影片 19 上,信貸品質正如我們預期的那樣,並且繼續表現良好。

  • Net charge-offs were 29 basis points in Q2, 1 basis point lower than the prior quarter.

    第二季淨沖銷為 29 個基點,較上一季低 1 個基點。

  • They remain in the lower half of our through-the-cycle target range of 25 basis points to 45 basis points.

    它們仍處於我們整個週期目標範圍 25 個基點至 45 個基點的下半部。

  • Allowance for credit losses at 1.95% declined by 2 basis points from the prior quarter, effectively flat, and reflects both modestly improved economic outlook as well as an increased loan portfolio.

    信貸損失準備率為 1.95%,較上一季下降 2 個基點,實際上持平,反映出經濟前景略有改善以及貸款組合的增加。

  • On slide 20, the criticized asset ratio declined 7% from the prior quarter, driven by broad-based improvements across commercial portfolios.

    在投影片 20 中,受到商業投資組合廣泛改善的推動,受到批評的資產比率較上一季下降了 7%。

  • Non-performing assets increased approximately 5% from the previous quarter to 63 basis points while remaining below the prior 2021 level.

    不良資產較上一季增加約 5%,至 63 個基點,但仍低於 2021 年之前的水準。

  • Turning to slide 21.

    轉到投影片 21。

  • Our outlook for the full year remains unchanged from our prior guidance.

    我們對全年的展望與先前的指引保持不變。

  • As we discussed, we expect loan growth to accelerate and deposit growth to sustain its quarterly trend.

    正如我們所討論的,我們預計貸款成長將加速,存款成長將維持其季度趨勢。

  • We drove net interest income higher from its trough and expect that trend to continue sequentially in the second half.

    我們將淨利息收入從低谷推高,並預計下半年趨勢將持續下去。

  • Core expenses are well-managed and tracking to our full year outlook, subject to some variability given revenue driven in compensation levels and the timing of staffing adds and expenses related to the insourcing of our merchant acquiring business.

    核心費用管理良好,並追蹤我們的全年前景,但考慮到薪酬水平驅動的收入、人員增加的時間以及與我們的商家收單業務內包相關的費用,可能會出現一些變化。

  • We expect to exit the year at a low single digit year-over-year growth rate.

    我們預計今年將以較低的個位數年增率結束。

  • Credit is performing well aligned with our expectations.

    信貸表現符合我們的預期。

  • With that, we'll conclude our prepared remarks and move over to Q&A.

    至此,我們將結束準備好的發言並進入問答環節。

  • Tim, over to you.

    提姆,交給你了。

  • Tim Sedabres - Executive Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

    Tim Sedabres - Executive Vice President, Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Zach.

    謝謝你,扎克。

  • Operator, we will now take questions.

    接線員,我們現在開始提問。

  • We ask that as a courtesy to your peers, each person ask only one question and one related follow-up.

    出於對同事的禮貌,我們要求每個人只提出一個問題和一個相關的後續行動。

  • And then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue.

    然後,如果該人還有其他問題,他或她可以將自己重新加入隊列。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

    (操作員指令)Manan Gosalia,摩根士丹利。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning.

    嘿,早安。

  • Zach, can you expand on your comments on how you're managing downside deposit beta if we get a couple of rate cuts by your end.

    扎克,如果我們最終降息幾次,您能否詳細闡述您如何管理下行存款貝塔值。

  • I mean, I think in the past you've spoken about a downside beta of 20% or so on total deposits.

    我的意思是,我認為您過去曾談到總存款的 20% 左右的下行貝塔值。

  • Can that be a little bit better given that you've been more competitive on deposits in the first half of the year?

    鑑於今年上半年你們在存款方面更具競爭力,這能好一點嗎?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Thanks, Manan.

    謝謝,馬南。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • A great question.

    這是一個很好的問題。

  • Appreciate the chance to elaborate on this one.

    感謝有機會詳細闡述這一點。

  • Well, as I noted in the prepared remarks, we're already beginning the early stages of the down beta playbook.

    好吧,正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣,我們已經開始了下測試劇本的早期階段。

  • I think reducing acquisition rates, shifting the acquisition mix from time deposits toward more money market, which is easier and faster to manage on a down beta trajectory, shortening the duration of CDs and making targeted rate reductions in certain client segments.

    我認為降低收購率,將收購組合從定期存款轉向更多的貨幣市場,這在下貝塔軌跡上更容易、更快速地管理,縮短CD的期限,並有針對性地降低某些客戶群的利率。

  • So already beginning these actions and they've benefited us in the second quarter.

    因此,我們已經開始採取這些行動,它們使我們在第二季度受益。

  • As we look forward, clearly, the performance and trajectory of our beta will be a function of not only the core yield curve projects, but importantly what clients in the markets generally believe to be the rate environment.

    展望未來,顯然,我們貝塔值的表現和軌跡不僅取決於核心殖利率曲線項目,更重要的是市場客戶普遍認為的利率環境。

  • With that being said, what we're seeing set up now is very conducive to continuing this action, being ready to actually implement the full down beta playbook when we presumably see a rate reduction later this year.

    話雖這麼說,我們現在看到的設定非常有利於繼續這一行動,準備好在今年晚些時候我們可能會看到利率下調時實際實施完整的測試版策略。

  • So there's good confidence in where things are going in terms of that.

    因此,人們對事情的進展充滿信心。

  • It's a little early to give precise guidance here because clearly the trajectory on beta over the course of the first year or so, it will be a function of those market expectations.

    現在給予精確的指導還為時過早,因為很明顯,第一年左右的測試軌跡將取決於這些市場預期。

  • But it's our general working assumption that we'll be in the [mid to high-20s percent] down beta range over a kind of first year period and then continuing from there.

    但我們的一般工作假設是,在第一年的一段時間裡,我們將處於 [中到高 20%] 的貝塔值下降範圍,然後從那裡繼續。

  • And as I said, sort of shaping up pretty well here in the early days a bit.

    正如我所說,早期的情況還不錯。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And then maybe on the loan side, can you talk about how spreads are tracking?

    然後也許在貸款方面,您能談談利差是如何追蹤的嗎?

  • We've had several banks highlighting weaker demand on loan growth, but they're all looking for loan growth.

    我們已經有幾家銀行強調貸款成長需求疲軟,但他們都在尋求貸款成長。

  • So are you seeing things getting more competitive and does -- how is that impacting loan spreads overall?

    那麼,您是否看到競爭變得更加激烈—這對整體貸款利差有何影響?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • No.

    不。

  • Look, it is certainly a competitive environment.

    看,這確實是個競爭環境。

  • And we're driving growth, as we said, into the second quarter.

    正如我們所說,我們正在推動第二季的成長。

  • On a dollar basis, we saw double the growth into the second quarter than we saw in the first quarter.

    以美元計算,我們看到第二季的成長是第一季的兩倍。

  • So the acceleration that we have been calling for some time we're seeing.

    因此,我們已經看到了一段時間以來我們一直呼籲的加速。

  • And so we feel pretty pleased about that.

    所以我們對此感到非常高興。

  • Part of the question on loan spreads for us overall on a net basis is where are we growing, what segments, what categories are we growing in.

    關於我們整體淨貸款利差的部分問題是我們在哪裡成長,以及我們在哪些細分市場、哪些類別中成長。

  • And where we're focused is driving growth in a lot of the new areas we've been investing in, which typically come on with pretty attractive spreads relative to the average.

    我們關注的重點是推動我們一直在投資的許多新領域的成長,這些領域的利差相對於平均水平通常相當有吸引力。

  • I would characterize the spread environment generally as pretty flat on a product and category level.

    我認為傳播環境在產品和類別層面上總體上相當平坦。

  • And for us, we're really focused on trying to drive capital optimization, obviously, in the areas with the highest return that often have good spreads, but it could also come with fee business performance as well.

    對我們來說,我們真正專注於推動資本最佳化,顯然,在回報率最高的領域,通常有良好的利差,但它也可能帶來費用業務績效。

  • Manan Gosalia - Analyst

    Manan Gosalia - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Erika Najarian, UBS.

    艾莉卡·納賈里安,瑞銀。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning.

    嗨,早安。

  • Can you talk through expected deposit trends for the rest of the quarter.

    您能否談談本季剩餘時間的預期存款趨勢?

  • Clearly, you have outpaced, as you mentioned, back to preponderance of your peers at the through cycle in terms of deposit growth.

    顯然,正如您所提到的,在存款成長方面,您在整個週期中已經超越了同行,恢復到了領先地位。

  • I guess I got the impression that perhaps some of this deposit growth is prefunding even better loan growth for the second half of the year.

    我想我的印像是,也許存款成長的一部分是為下半年更好的貸款成長提供資金。

  • And I did notice that you could get through your securities portfolio and at that rate that you mentioned that like a good move relative to the curve?

    我確實注意到,您可以通過您的證券投資組合,並且按照您提到的相對於曲線的良好走勢?

  • But I'm just wondering, I guess the question here is, can you continue to -- do you have enough deposits to fund the acceleration [of the assets that we've been waiting for] or are you expecting to continue to grow at this pace, but closer to the rate and competitive dynamics that you observed in June?

    但我只是想知道,我想這裡的問題是,你能否繼續——你是否有足夠的存款來為[我們一直在等待的資產]的加速提供資金,或者你是否期望繼續以這個速度,但更接近您在6 月觀察到的速度和競爭動態?

  • In other words, it won't be as expensive as plus 9 basis points for the quarter.

    換句話說,本季的價格不會加 9 個基點那麼貴。

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Erika for the question.

    謝謝埃里卡提出的問題。

  • This is Zach.

    這是札克。

  • I'll take it.

    我要買它。

  • Your line was clipping a little bit as I went over.

    當我走過去時,你的線有點斷了。

  • But I think what I heard was what is our expectation for loan growth and kind of deposit price -- sorry, deposit growth, I'm sorry, and deposit pricing here in the back half of the year and will we have enough to fund loans going forward and what the kind of rate trajectory is around that.

    但我想我聽到的是我們對貸款增長和存款價格的預期 - 對不起,存款增長,對不起,以及今年下半年的存款定價,我們是否有足夠的資金來為貸款提供資金未來的走勢以及圍繞此的利率軌跡是什麼樣的。

  • So let me see if I can address that.

    那麼讓我看看是否可以解決這個問題。

  • And if I haven't covered it, you can follow-up.

    如果我沒有講到,你可以跟進。

  • Look, I think we're really pleased with how things are going on deposit gathering, for sure.

    聽著,我認為我們確實對存款收集的進展感到非常滿意。

  • If you take a big step back, 15% outperformance versus the peer median over the course of the rate cycle with a beta that compares pretty favorably to both history and peer, so really doing well.

    如果你退一步看,在利率週期的過程中,與同行中位數相比,表現要高出 15%,而且貝塔值與歷史和同行相比都相當有利,所以確實表現得很好。

  • I think what that's allowing us to do is, to your question, prefund to some degree our future loan growth and we've seen the loan to deposit ratio just the last year go from 84% this time last year to 81% now the quarter we disclosed.

    我認為,對於你的問題,我們可以做的是,在某種程度上為我們未來的貸款成長提供資金,我們已經看到去年的貸存比從去年這個時候的84% 上升到了本季度的81 %我們透露。

  • So sort of sets up that ability to fund with core deposits, decelerating loan growth that we expect.

    這樣就建立了用核心存款提供資金的能力,從而減緩了我們預期的貸款成長。

  • But also I would note and it sort of goes back to Manan's question a second ago, it gives us a lot of flexibility to really manage down beta and to be selective and disciplined in terms of where that next unit of funding will come from.

    但我還要指出,這有點回到了馬南剛才提出的問題,它為我們提供了很大的靈活性,可以真正管理較低的貝塔值,並在下一單位資金的來源方面具有選擇性和紀律性。

  • And so that is sort of the intention and we've been performing really well.

    這就是我們的意圖,而且我們的表現非常好。

  • So I mean, to some degree, I will share that we're actually outperforming our initial budget on deposit growth, is one of the reasons why we elevated the deposit growth forecast up to the high end of our initial guidance range.

    因此,我的意思是,在某種程度上,我將分享我們實際上超出了存款成長的初始預算,這是我們將存款成長預測提高到初始指導範圍高端的原因之一。

  • I think we saw extraordinary level of growth into the second quarter, almost $3 billion.

    我認為第二季我們看到了非凡的成長,接近 30 億美元。

  • I don't expect that same level of sequential growth into the second quarter, but I do expect it to grow and I would see some nice sequential growth into the fourth quarter too, and to be within that overall guidance range of [3 to 4] for the full-year.

    我預計第二季度不會出現同樣水平的連續增長,但我確實預計它會增長,並且我也會看到第四季度出現一些不錯的連續增長,並且在 [3 到 4 的總體指導範圍內]全年。

  • So I think that will allow us to kind of absorb the increased lending volumes that we're projecting and core fund them and set up the ability to manage down beta.

    因此,我認為這將使我們能夠吸收我們預計的增加的貸款量,並為它們提供核心資金,並建立管理降低貝塔值的能力。

  • In terms of pricing strategy, we'll sort of go back a little bit to the answer I gave to Manan, which is we're being judicious.

    在定價策略方面,我們會稍微回顧一下我給馬南的答案,那就是我們是明智的。

  • We're still in acquisition mode, but we're very much cognizant that we are in a position of strength and that can allow us to execute the early stages of down beta.

    我們仍處於收購模式,但我們非常清楚我們處於優勢地位,這可以讓我們執行下測試的早期階段。

  • So we're seeing it in the marketplace, reductions in go-to-market acquisition pricing.

    因此,我們在市場上看到了上市收購定價的降低。

  • We're likewise doing that and taking that opportunity.

    我們同樣也在這樣做並抓住這個機會。

  • And I believe that if we do get rate reductions here in September, which just seems to be a certainty based on the market expectations, we'll be able to continue that and to drive it forward even further.

    我相信,如果我們確實在 9 月降息(基於市場預期,這似乎是確定的),我們將能夠繼續這一舉措並進一步推動其向前發展。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And just as a follow-up question to that, as I try to put together everything that you told us about deposit pricing trends, continued fixed-rate asset repricing and the swaps that are maturing, while you started the year having a generally asset sensitive position, the way your balance sheet will evolve into next year, it sounds like in terms of both strategically in pricing and mechanically in terms of some of the financial engineering rolling off, you will be set up to potentially benefit from that rate curve or lower short range.

    作為一個後續問題,我試圖將您告訴我們的有關存款定價趨勢、持續的固定利率資產重新定價和即將到期的掉期的所有內容放在一起,而您在今年開始時普遍對資產敏感位置,你的資產負債表將演變為明年的方式,這聽起來像是在戰略定價和機械方面的一些金融工程滾滾方面,你將有可能從該利率曲線或更低的利率曲線中受益短距離。

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, great, question.

    是的,很好,問題。

  • So let me sort of address some of the thinking around NIM trajectory, asset sensitivity plans.

    因此,讓我來談談有關淨利差軌跡、資產敏感性計劃的一些思考。

  • But the objective we've had vis-a-vis asset sensitivity management over the last year, year and a half even has been to allow our natural asset sensitivity to really maximize the value of the up rate environment, which works pretty well.

    但過去一年甚至一年半我們的資產敏感性管理目標是讓我們的自然資產敏感度真正最大化升息環境的價值,效果非常好。

  • Clearly, now as we think about rates topping out and then presumably beginning to fall, where we are strategically reducing asset sensitivity.

    顯然,現在當我們考慮利率見頂然後可能開始下降時,我們正在策略性地降低資產敏感性。

  • And in the prepared remarks, I highlighted that the combination of increasing forward-starting received fixed swaps and expiration of pay-fixed swaps will reduce asset sensitivity by about a third between now and the end of -- I'm sorry, the middle of next year.

    在準備好的發言中,我強調,從現在到年底,增加前瞻性收到的固定掉期和支付固定掉期的到期相結合,將使資產敏感性降低約三分之一。

  • And we'll continue to be dynamic in managing that, but that's a very intentional reduction in asset sensitivity to manage in the presence of reduced trades.

    我們將繼續積極管理這一點,但這是在交易減少的情況下有意降低資產敏感度的管理。

  • I think on NIM, generally seeing pretty stable trends here over the next several quarters.

    我認為在 NIM 上,未來幾季的趨勢通常會相當穩定。

  • And there are two substantive positive factors we've discussed over time.

    隨著時間的推移,我們討論了兩個實質的正面因素。

  • Fixed asset repricing will continue to benefit the NIM.

    固定資產重新定價將繼續有利於淨利差。

  • We -- second factor hedge drag, about 16 basis points of net hedge drag in the second quarter that we just closed.

    我們-第二個對沖拖累因素,我們剛結束的第二季的淨對沖拖累約為 16 個基點。

  • So that will go down to almost a neutral position by the middle of next year in an implied forward scenario.

    因此,在隱含的遠期情境中,到明年年中,這一數字將降至幾乎中性。

  • So we'll get some benefits from that pretty steadily here over the next several quarters.

    因此,在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將穩定地從中獲得一些好處。

  • The other two factors that are very rate path-dependent, clearly are what happens with variable yields, what happens with interest-bearing liability costs.

    另外兩個非常依賴利率路徑的因素,顯然是可變收益率和帶息負債成本。

  • But in our expectation, you'll see an accelerating and an effective down beta that will help to mitigate variable yield reductions.

    但在我們的預期中,您將看到貝塔值加速且有效地下降,這將有助於緩解可變收益率的下降。

  • And the net of those things will be a pretty flat NIM here.

    這些東西的網路將會是一個相當平坦的 NIM。

  • But I think over the longer term, we do see certainly the opportunities to drive NIM higher in a more upwards curve -- upward sloping yield curve environment.

    但我認為,從長遠來看,我們確實看到了在更向上的曲線(向上傾斜的殖利率曲線環境)中推動淨利差走高的機會。

  • And so, that is I think what the market is expecting.

    所以,我認為這就是市場的預期。

  • So we're pretty positive about where NIM will go over the longer-term after we get through these initial stages of that rate.

    因此,在我們度過該利率的初始階段後,我們對長期淨利差的走向非常樂觀。

  • Erika Najarian - Analyst

    Erika Najarian - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Alexopoulos, JPMorgan.

    史蒂文‧阿萊克索普洛斯,摩根大通。

  • Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

    Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone.

    嘿,大家早安。

  • I want to start, maybe Zach for you.

    我想開始,也許扎克適合你。

  • So if we do get two cuts this year, say, September, December.

    因此,如果今年我們確實有兩次削減,比如說 9 月和 12 月。

  • Zach, what's your bias as it relates to the NII outlook,

    扎克,您對 NII 前景有何偏見,

  • [the down 1 to down 4]?

    [下1到下4]?

  • Where in the range do you think we lean?

    您認為我們傾向於這個範圍的哪個位置?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Great question.

    很好的問題。

  • Our practice in terms of setting these ranges is try to box where we think our basic trend is going.

    我們設定這些範圍的做法是試著框定我們認為基本趨勢的走向。

  • So we're generally trending pretty well, though, in that range, and that's including a couple of cuts there.

    因此,在這個範圍內,我們的趨勢總體上相當好,其中包括一些削減。

  • I do think that one of the key factors in managing a flat NIM will be that continued execution on reducing the trajectory of interest rate cuts rising and then begin to driving them lower.

    我確實認為,管理淨利差持平的關鍵因素之一是繼續執行降低利率上升的軌跡,然後開始降低利率。

  • And of course, the real ability to do that is a function of what the competitive environment is and what customers believe the rate path is.

    當然,真正做到這一點的能力取決於競爭環境和客戶認為的利率路徑。

  • And so it will be dependent on the conviction of the market and the economy broadly where our rates are going.

    因此,這將取決於市場和經濟對我們的利率走向的普遍信念。

  • But with that being said, the data does continue to set up pretty good confidence around where the yield curve will go, and so feel pretty good about our ability to do that.

    但話雖如此,數據確實繼續對殖利率曲線的走向建立了相當好的信心,因此我們對我們做到這一點的能力感到非常滿意。

  • So the other element of it clearly is loan growth.

    因此,另一個因素顯然是貸款成長。

  • And we're seeing really encouraging signs there.

    我們在那裡看到了非常令人鼓舞的跡象。

  • Pipelines look strong, solid performance in Q2, expect to continue to grow and accelerate on a year-over-year basis here in the back half of the year.

    第二季的管道看起來強勁、穩定,預計今年下半年將持續成長並較去年同期加速。

  • I think we could see even faster loan growth if some of our new growth initiatives perform even well, even better than they're forecasted to do in our base plan.

    我認為,如果我們的一些新的成長舉措表現良好,甚至比我們基本計劃中的預測更好,我們可能會看到更快的貸款成長。

  • The pipelines there look really good.

    那裡的管道看起來非常好。

  • And so, the pull through is even better.

    因此,牽引力甚至更好。

  • Based on our base plan, we see some upward bias on loan growth.

    根據我們的基本計劃,我們看到貸款成長存在一些向上的偏差。

  • Likewise, what we haven't addressed in the Q&A section here is we did see more CRE run-off in the second quarter than we had expected at the time of initial budgeting.

    同樣,我們在問答部分沒有提到的是,我們確實看到第二季的商業地產徑流比我們在最初預算時的預期要多。

  • To the extent that that is lower going forward, you can see some higher loan volumes and that could lift revenues above the base plan.

    如果未來這一數字較低,您可以看到貸款量增加,這可能會使收入高於基本計劃。

  • Conversely, if any of those factors were worse, that could take it to the lower end.

    相反,如果這些因素中的任何一個變得更糟,則可能會將其推向較低水平。

  • But feel pretty good about trending right in the middle of that range at this point, Steven.

    但史蒂文,現在對這個範圍中間的趨勢感到非常滿意。

  • Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

    Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

  • So middle of the range, is that what you're saying?

    那麼中間的範圍,是你所說的嗎?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • That's the baseline.

    這是底線。

  • Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

    Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

  • That's your baseline.

    這就是你的底線。

  • Okay, that's helpful.

    好的,這很有幫助。

  • And then it's funny when you look at slide 7, you're calling out the $600 million, that was the increase in average loans from new initiatives, right, I don't know, call it, $2.5 billion a year.

    然後很有趣的是,當你看幻燈片 7 時,你會發現 6 億美元,這是新舉措帶來的平均貸款的增長,對,我不知道,可以這樣稱呼,每年 25 億美元。

  • And I'm curious, because you could look at that and say, well, that's sort of a catch-up, you have new bankers and new verticals bring over their books, but then you're saying momentum is building.

    我很好奇,因為你可能會說,好吧,這有點追趕,你有新的銀行家和新的垂直領域帶來了他們的賬簿,但你會說勢頭正在增強。

  • So when we look out from here, we think about that $2.5 billion run rate or so, do you see upside to that?

    因此,當我們從這裡向外看時,我們會想到 25 億美元左右的運行率,您認為這有什麼好處嗎?

  • As the quarters roll forward, should we see more contribution from new initiatives in a dollar perspective?

    隨著季度的推移,從美元角度來看,我們是否應該看到新措施帶來更多貢獻?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • I think I'm expecting to see very strong performance in these new initiatives.

    我認為我期望在這些新舉措中看到非常強烈的表現。

  • We're really pleased with how they're doing.

    我們對他們的表現非常滿意。

  • Every one of them has booked customers, is booking loans.

    他們每個人都有預約客戶,正在預約貸款。

  • We're seeing good performance on the full relationship in terms of deposits and fees starting to come through, so really pleased with it.

    我們看到整個關係在存款和費用方面都表現良好,因此對此感到非常滿意。

  • And I also wouldn't characterize it necessarily as them bringing their books over.

    我也不會將其描述為他們把書帶來了。

  • These were talented bankers with deep experience in their industries and those geographies we've launched in and we're just sort of driving through new client acquisition on a pretty core basis.

    這些都是才華橫溢的銀行家,在他們的行業和我們推出的地區擁有豐富的經驗,我們只是在相當核心的基礎上推動新客戶的獲取。

  • The trajectory of growth that you highlighted, I expect to see a pretty steady build from here.

    您強調的成長軌跡,我希望從這裡看到一個相當穩定的成長。

  • I don't know that I'd see acceleration per se, but the trajectory we're on is already very accretive to loan growth.

    我不知道貸款成長本身是否會加速,但我們所處的軌跡已經非常促進貸款成長。

  • Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

    Steven Alexopoulos - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thanks for taking my questions.

    感謝您回答我的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

    斯科特·西弗斯,派珀·桑德勒。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Good morning, everybody.

    大家早安。

  • Thank you for taking the question.

    感謝您提出問題。

  • So I think my question is on overall customer demand on loans have sort of been answered.

    所以我認為我的問題是客戶對貸款的整體需求已經得到了解答。

  • But I was hoping you could maybe address auto in particular.

    但我希望你能特別解決汽車問題。

  • I noticed production is as high as it's been in the last several years.

    我注意到產量與過去幾年一樣高。

  • Is that sort of maybe being used as a flex, given sort of the softer overall growth than you had anticipated maybe earlier this year and -- albeit within the context of -- it sounds like things outside of that category are going to advance more robustly later on.

    考慮到整體成長比您今年早些時候預期的要軟,這種情況是否可能被用作一種彈性,而且——儘管是在這樣的背景下——聽起來該類別之外的事情將會更加強勁地發展稍後。

  • So just curious how you're thinking about auto.

    所以只是好奇你如何看待汽車。

  • And then as the follow-up, maybe just sort of quality of that portfolio given what the kind of fluctuations we've seen in used car values, lower economy, et cetera.

    然後作為後續行動,考慮到我們在二手車價值、較低的經濟等方面看到的波動,也許只是該投資組合的品質。

  • Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

    Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

  • Scott, this is Steve.

    斯科特,這是史蒂夫。

  • I'll take the question.

    我來回答這個問題。

  • And our auto business has performed very well this year and in the second quarter, we expect it will continue.

    我們的汽車業務今年表現非常好,在第二季度,我們預計它將繼續下去。

  • We're not using it as a buffer.

    我們不使用它作為緩衝區。

  • I think that was essentially what you were asking.

    我認為這本質上就是你所問的。

  • We just see it as a terrific opportunity.

    我們只是將其視為一個絕佳的機會。

  • Some of the other banks in the last year or so pulled back on auto.

    其他一些銀行在去年左右撤回了汽車業務。

  • It's created a bit of an opportunity for us and we'd expect to continue generating significant volume and growth.

    它為我們創造了一些機會,我們預計將繼續產生巨大的銷售和成長。

  • As you saw at the CLM, and as we've done in the past with auto securitization, we'll manage aggregate exposure with the book, but we've got quite a bit of work at this point.

    正如您在 CLM 中看到的那樣,正如我們過去在汽車證券化方面所做的那樣,我們將透過這本書來管理整體風險敞口,但目前我們還有很多工作要做。

  • In terms of quality of the book, it's a super prime book.

    從書的品質來看,這是一本超優質的書。

  • And so very low default, and we've talked about this for years.

    違約率非常低,我們已經討論這個問題很多年了。

  • We focus on default frequency.

    我們關注預設頻率。

  • On the margin, the used car pricing can have a slight impact on incremental loss or avoided loss on each repossession, but it's not going to be a big number for us either way.

    在邊際上,二手車定價可能會對每次收回時的增量損失或避免損失產生輕微影響,但無論怎樣,這對我們來說都不會是一個大數字。

  • We've shown that this book performs very well over the years, we expect it will continue to do so.

    我們已經證明這本書多年來表現得非常好,我們預計它會繼續如此。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • And then Zach, maybe one for you just on costs.

    然後,扎克(Zach)也許是一個適合你的選擇,只是考慮到成本。

  • I appreciate the sort of the third quarter rise, but then it sounds like we're still all on track for the full year.

    我很欣賞第三季的成長,但聽起來我們全年仍處於正軌。

  • In the past, and I don't want to get too detailed on next year, but you've sort of talked about that normalization of overall cost growth into next year.

    過去,我不想詳細介紹明年的情況,但您已經談到了明年整體成本成長的正常化。

  • Any change, sort of, broadly to how you're thinking about that?

    您對此的看法有什麼大體上的改變嗎?

  • Or are we still sort of on track for that as well?

    或者說我們仍然在朝著這個目標前進嗎?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • On track for that is the headline answer there.

    那裡的標題答案正在按計劃進行。

  • I feel really good about how we're managing expenses for the year.

    我對我們今年的開支管理方式感到非常滿意。

  • There's clearly been a little bit of timing delta from where we would have initially expected to where we are now, but the full-year looks quite in line where we would have thought initially and in line with our guidance.

    顯然,從我們最初的預期到現在的情況存在一些時間增量,但全年看起來非常符合我們最初的預期,也符合我們的指導。

  • What that will set up is, as we've discussed on previous calls, a steady deceleration in the rate of year-over-year growth as we go throughout the course of this year.

    正如我們在之前的電話會議中所討論的那樣,這將導致今年全年的同比增長率穩步放緩。

  • I think expense growth last quarter was about 5% year over year.

    我認為上個季度的費用年增約 5%。

  • This is like around 6%, I think, effectively in Q2 we disclosed.

    我認為,在我們披露的第二季度中,這一比例約為 6% 左右。

  • That will trend toward low-single-digits by the time we get to the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis.

    當我們進入第四季時,年成長率將趨於低個位數。

  • And our expectation we'll see that -- run that trend down into 2025.

    我們期望我們會看到這一趨勢——將這種趨勢延續到 2025 年。

  • Scott Siefers - Analyst

    Scott Siefers - Analyst

  • Perfect.

    完美的。

  • Okay, good.

    好的,很好。

  • Thank you for taking the questions.

    感謝您提出問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

    易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉,美國銀行。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning.

    嘿,早安。

  • I guess, Zach, I'm not sure if I've missed it.

    我想,扎克,我不確定我是否錯過了。

  • Just talk to us around the loan-to-deposit ratio, 80%.

    就跟我們談貸存比,80%。

  • Do you expect that to stay as is?

    您希望保持原樣嗎?

  • The guidance kind of implies that.

    該指導有點暗示了這一點。

  • But as we think about all this loan growth coming up, should we expect the loan to deposit ratio to stay flat, like that's where the bank is going to be managed?

    但當我們考慮即將到來的所有貸款成長時,我們是否應該期望貸存比保持平穩,就像銀行將要管理的那樣?

  • And talk to us also about the mix of these deposits that are coming in.

    並與我們討論這些存款的組合。

  • If you can talk about like blended rates or what the NIB mix of these deposits is, that would be helpful.

    如果您可以談論混合利率或這些存款的 NIB 組合是什麼,那將會有所幫助。

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, great question.

    是的,很好的問題。

  • I think that we're really pleased with how we're doing on deposit gathering and to some degree just prefunding loan growth that we're expecting to continue to drive higher here over time.

    我認為我們對我們在存款收集方面的表現感到非常滿意,並且在某種程度上只是為貸款增長提供資金,我們預計隨著時間的推移,貸款增長將繼續推高。

  • And so, I'd expect over the course of a longer time period, like we see the loan to deposit ratio drift back higher again, but stay within a pretty tight range.

    因此,我預計在較長一段時間內,貸存比會再次回升,但仍保持在相當狹窄的範圍內。

  • The objective we've got on average over time is to grow our deposits at a very similar rate to loans, and the delta would only be kind of temporary as we see trends on a relatively short-term basis might be to diverge.

    隨著時間的推移,我們的平均目標是以與貸款非常相似的速度成長存款,而增量只是暫時的,因為我們看到相對短期的趨勢可能會出現分歧。

  • So over the back half of this year, I'm expecting to see maybe slightly faster sequential loan growth than deposit growth, but not so meaningful as to probably shift that ratio very much.

    因此,在今年下半年,我預計貸款的連續成長可能會比存款成長略快,但意義不大,以至於可能會大幅改變該比率。

  • Fundamentally, what we're seeing in terms of deposit growth is the same function we've been seeing for the last several quarters.

    從根本上講,我們所看到的存款成長與過去幾季所看到的功能相同。

  • Underlying acquisition of new relationships is quite good.

    建立新關係的基礎是相當好的。

  • We talked about 2% primary bank household growth in consumer, 4% in business bank, commercial also growing a lot of new names and new customers, particularly given our new growth initiatives.

    我們談到消費者主要銀行家庭成長了 2%,商業銀行成長了 4%,商業銀行也增加了許多新名稱和新客戶,特別是考慮到我們新的成長措施。

  • And also importantly, a couple of the new verticals we've added, very much focused on deposit gathering, which is very much helpful.

    同樣重要的是,我們添加的幾個新垂直領域非常關注存款收集,這非常有幫助。

  • The mix of it, as I noted in one of the earlier questions, is actively shifting out of more time into more money market, that sort of value driver from here, which will help us set up the ability to move beta down at a faster rate going forward.

    正如我在前面的一個問題中指出的,它的組合正在積極地將更多時間轉移到更多貨幣市場,這是一種價值驅動因素,這將幫助我們建立更快地降低貝塔值的能力率前進。

  • And all that's going to contribute to just that sort of slow progression of topping out deposit costs and then bringing them back down in that decelerating way on the up and then accelerating on the way down as we've discussed.

    所有這些都將導致存款成本達到頂峰,然後以減速的方式回落,然後加速下降,正如我們所討論的那樣。

  • That's sort of what we're seeing at this point.

    這就是我們目前所看到的情況。

  • In terms of non-interest bearing, I don't think I've gotten the question as yet, but I think in the materials, you can see the chart where that's going.

    在無息方面,我認為我還沒有得到這個問題,但我認為在材料中,你可以看到圖表的進展。

  • We're seeing a meaningful deceleration of that mix shift out of non-interest bearing into the first quarter, that will give you a sense from the fourth quarter, $1.3 billion reduction in non-interest bearing into the second quarter, we disclosed only $300 million of reduction in non-interest bearing.

    我們看到第一季的非計息混合轉移出現有意義的減速,這會讓你從第四季度開始感覺到,第二季的非計息減少了 13 億美元,我們只披露了 300 美元無息減少萬元。

  • And in fact, consumer went up.

    事實上,消費者數量有所增加。

  • So we think we're almost done here in terms of mix shift out of non-interest bearing and this will last until here in the near-term.

    因此,我們認為,就無息混合轉型而言,我們幾乎已經完成,並且這種情況將持續到近期。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • And I guess, just one quick follow-up.

    我想,這只是一個快速的後續行動。

  • You mentioned expenses will do low-single digits, if I heard you correctly, by the end of the year.

    你提到,如果我沒聽錯的話,到今年年底,支出將達到低個位數。

  • Does that -- should we be reading into that in terms of '25 expense growth being higher, lower, or same as '24?

    我們是否應該從「25 年費用成長」與「24 年」相比更高、更低或相同的角度來解讀這一點?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • So the thing with -- it's a great question again.

    所以這又是一個很好的問題。

  • The point we've been discussing, I think for a while in terms of expense growth, this year 4.5%, was intentionally higher than what we otherwise were kind of running at, so that we could invest in some of these new growth initiatives and also importantly, invest a lot of data and automation capabilities throughout the company.

    我認為我們已經討論了一段時間的費用增長,今年 4.5%,故意高於我們原本的運行水平,這樣我們就可以投資於其中一些新的增長計劃,同樣重要的是,在整個公司投資大量數據和自動化能力。

  • But that pace of growth would reduce as we went into 2025.

    但隨著進入 2025 年,這種成長速度將會放緩。

  • And that is our plan.

    這就是我們的計劃。

  • I expect to see lower growth rate of expenses in 2025 than we're seeing in 2024.

    我預計 2025 年的支出成長率將低於 2024 年。

  • And the trend is very much supportive of that because by the time we'll exit this year, we'll already be exiting at a kind of run rate of year-over-year growth that's quite low, so try to maintain that lower growth rate as we go into '25.

    這一趨勢非常支持這一點,因為到今年我們退出時,我們已經以相當低的同比增長速度退出,所以盡量保持較低的增長當我們進入 '25 時。

  • Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

    Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

  • Ebrahim, Zach has shared in the past, efforts to lower growth rates in core expense levels of the bank in order to continue to invest in different opportunities, revenue-producing opportunities primarily.

    扎克·易卜拉欣過去曾分享過,銀行努力降低核心費用水準的成長率,以便繼續投資於不同的機會,主要是創收機會。

  • You should expect to see that from us in '25 and beyond as well.

    您應該也能在 25 年及以後從我們這裡看到這一點。

  • Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

    Ebrahim Poonawala - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thanks, Stephen and Zach.

    謝謝,史蒂芬和扎克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

    馬特‧奧康納,德意志銀行。

  • Matt O'Connor - Analyst

    Matt O'Connor - Analyst

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • I was hoping you guys could talk about the risk transfers that you guys have executed on.

    我希望你們能談談你們已經執行的風險轉移。

  • Just there's been some coverage about it, what you've done and some others in the media.

    只是有一些關於它的報道,你所做的事情以及媒體上的其他一些報導。

  • And, I guess, I'm just trying to figure out the logic.

    而且,我想,我只是想找出其中的邏輯。

  • I mean, you've got strong capital, you're building capital.

    我的意思是,你擁有雄厚的資本,你正在累積資本。

  • I realize you've got kind of the strong loan growth outlook.

    我意識到您的貸款成長前景十分強勁。

  • But the rate that was kind of put out there in the media seems pretty high for what's a very high-quality auto book as you show in the slides here.

    但是,正如您在此處的幻燈片中所示,對於一本非常高品質的汽車書籍來說,媒體上的曝光率似乎相當高。

  • So just trying to understand kind of the logic about it and the cost to the media is like 7.5%.

    所以只是想了解它的邏輯,媒體的成本大約是 7.5%。

  • So anything around the logic and financial impact?

    那麼有什麼關於邏輯和財務影響的事情嗎?

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, great question.

    是的,很好的問題。

  • This is Zach.

    這是札克。

  • I'll take that one.

    我會接受那個。

  • If you take a step back and look at our capital plans, put these transactions in the context of the overall capital plan, the plan is really twofold.

    如果你退一步看看我們的資本計劃,將這些交易放在整體資本計劃的背景下,這個計劃實際上是雙重的。

  • Drive adjusted CET1 higher, we were 8.6% adjusted CET1 in the second quarter.

    推動調整後的 CET1 走高,第二季調整後的 CET1 為 8.6%。

  • We intend to drive that up into our operating range of 9% to 10%.

    我們打算將其提高到 9% 至 10% 的營運範圍內。

  • I think we're just a handful of quarters away from achieving that, our current trajectory.

    我認為我們距離實現這一目標(目前的軌跡)只有幾個季度的時間。

  • And then the second key objective is fund high-return loan, and we're doing that.

    第二個關鍵目標是為高回報貸款提供資金,我們正在這樣做。

  • And I think as we said that will continue and accelerate on a year-over-year basis.

    我認為正如我們所說,這種情況將繼續下去,並逐年加速。

  • And the prime driver of creating the capital to support those objectives is organic earnings and the core earnings power of the company.

    創造資本來支持這些目標的主要驅動力是公司的有機盈利和核心盈利能力。

  • And that really is the core focus, the prime focus.

    這確實是核心焦點,首要焦點。

  • With that being said, and just shifting now to your question on CRT and CLNs, at the margin, these transactions can be very helpful for just further RWA and balance sheet optimization.

    話雖如此,現在轉向您關於 CRT 和 CLN 的問題,在邊際上,這些交易對於進一步 RWA 和資產負債表優化非常有幫助。

  • And so we're pleased to do a CBS transaction in the fourth quarter of last year and then a very successful credit-linked-note transaction in the second quarter.

    因此,我們很高興在去年第四季度進行了 CBS 交易,然後在第二季度進行了非常成功的信用掛鉤票據交易。

  • To give you a sense of the economics, the second quarter yield was exceptionally good, less than a 3% cost of capital.

    為了讓您了解經濟狀況,第二季的收益率非常好,資本成本低於 3%。

  • So what do I mean by that?

    那我這是什麼意思呢?

  • $4 billion notional transaction against high-quality indirect auto loans, 74% reduction in risk-weighted assets through the transaction, so $3 billion reduction in RWA.

    針對高品質間接汽車貸款的名義交易為 40 億美元,透過交易風險加權資產減少了 74%,因此 RWA 減少了 30 億美元。

  • We also get almost $500 million of funding from the transaction.

    我們也從這筆交易中獲得了近 5 億美元的資金。

  • And the cost of that is only $7 million into spread on a year-one basis, plus some modest upfront transaction costs.

    而一年的成本僅 700 萬美元,再加上一些適度的前期交易成本。

  • So it's incredibly efficient at the margins, unlocked 17 bps of CET1, and just continue to support those prime objectives.

    因此,它的邊際效率非常高,解鎖了 CET1 的 17 個基點,並且繼續支援這些主要目標。

  • So we look at it as very much tactical.

    所以我們將其視為非常戰術性的。

  • It's not the core underlying driver, but just these opportunistic things that come through, and really pleased with how well -- also, the economics are incredibly favorable.

    這不是核心的潛在驅動力,而是這些機會主義的事物的出現,並且對它們的表現非常滿意——而且,經濟狀況也非常有利。

  • Matt O'Connor - Analyst

    Matt O'Connor - Analyst

  • Okay, that's super helpful.

    好的,這非常有幫助。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

    喬恩‧阿夫斯特羅姆 (Jon Arfstrom),加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks.

    嘿,謝謝。

  • Good morning, guys.

    早安,夥計們。

  • Maybe a question for you, Steve.

    也許有個問題想問你,史蒂夫。

  • How far out do you have visibility on loan growth?

    您對貸款成長的了解有多遠?

  • I'm thinking a little bit more about the exit rate for NII in 2024.

    我正在更多地思考 2024 年 NII 的退出率。

  • I'm just curious how you're thinking beyond the next quarter or two.

    我只是好奇你在接下來的一兩個季度之後會如何思考。

  • Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

    Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, our pipelines go out a couple of quarters.

    嗯,我們的管道停了幾個季度。

  • And so, we have visibility through -- not full visibility, but partial visibility through the fourth quarter.

    因此,我們對第四季的可見性不是完全可見,而是部分可見。

  • We don't yet have significant visibility into '25.

    我們對 25 年還沒有明顯的了解。

  • Certain businesses, though, because of the nature of their relationships, our distribution finance, we tie back into to the supply base and we get some insight from them as to what they intend to produce.

    然而,某些企業,由於他們關係的性質,我們的分銷融資,我們與供應基地聯繫在一起,我們從他們那裡得到一些關於他們打算生產什麼的見解。

  • But on the whole, we don't have significant multi-quarter visibility, Jon.

    但總的來說,我們沒有顯著的多季度可見性,喬恩。

  • But we do see from our customer base, however, they're performing well this year.

    但我們確實從我們的客戶群中看到,他們今年表現良好。

  • I think there's an expectation as rates come down that they'll be doing more -- even more business next year.

    我認為,隨著利率的下降,人們預計他們明年會做更多的業務,甚至更多的業務。

  • And that's a general sentiment they sort of share with you.

    這是他們與你分享的普遍觀點。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Yeah.

    是的。

  • Okay, that's helpful.

    好的,這很有幫助。

  • And I guess this hasn't been touched on, but anything to note on credit, anything you're seeing that's bothering you, anything that's surprising you positively?

    我想這還沒有被觸及,但是有什麼值得記下的,你看到的任何讓你困擾的事情,任何讓你感到驚訝的事情?

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

    Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

  • So credit continues to perform very well.

    因此信貸持續表現良好。

  • We're very pleased with performance year to date.

    我們對今年迄今的表現非常滿意。

  • The outlook looks good.

    前景看起來不錯。

  • As you know, we spend a lot of time on portfolio reviews and management and it's looking good.

    如您所知,我們在投資組合審查和管理上花費了大量時間,而且看起來不錯。

  • So there'll be some lumpiness in commercial real estate over the next couple of years for us and others in the industry.

    因此,對於我們和業內其他人來說,未來幾年商業房地產將會出現一些波動。

  • But outside of that, looking good.

    但除此之外,看起來還不錯。

  • And on the whole, for us, it's not going to be an issue.

    總的來說,對我們來說,這不會成為問題。

  • As you know, our CRE concentration continues to reduce.

    如您所知,我們的 CRE 濃度持續降低。

  • So I think we had a little over $250 million of office payouts over the last six quarters.

    因此,我認為過去六個季度我們的辦公室支出略高於 2.5 億美元。

  • The hack with construction unused commitments have been absorbed.

    建設未使用承諾的駭客已被吸收。

  • So the CRE book is in good shape.

    因此,CRE 書的狀況良好。

  • Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

    Jon Arfstrom - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

    彼得溫特,D.A.戴維森。

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

    Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Hi.

    你好。

  • Good morning.

    早安.

  • You guys had a nice rebound in fee income.

    你們的費用收入有了很好的反彈。

  • And then you've got the merchant acquiring coming on back in-house, starting in the third-quarter, which I think adds about $6 million to fees.

    然後,從第三季開始,商家收購業務將重新回到內部,我認為這將增加約 600 萬美元的費用。

  • Just do you think fee income that you can continue with this momentum and kind of maybe come in at the upper end of that 5% to 7% range?

    您是否認為費用收入可以繼續保持這種勢頭,並可能達到 5% 至 7% 範圍的上限?

  • Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

    Zachary Wasserman - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Executive Vice President

  • Thanks for the question.

    謝謝你的提問。

  • This is Zach.

    這是札克。

  • I'll take that one.

    我會接受那個。

  • So the other line of processing your question was, fee income performance was very strong.

    所以處理你的問題的另一條線是,費用收入表現非常強勁。

  • We were really pleased with what we saw.

    我們對所看到的感到非常滿意。

  • Second quarter was up 6% sequentially from the first, continue to run at a 5% year-over-year growth rate, similar to the first quarter year over year.

    第二季季增6%,持續維持5%的年增速,與第一季年增速類似。

  • And our expectation is to land within our 5% to 7% full-year range.

    我們的預期是全年成長 5% 至 7% 的範圍內。

  • As we get into the back half of the year and we've got some of the grow-overs versus last year, that will get a little easier.

    當我們進入今年下半年時,與去年相比,我們有了一些成長,這會變得容易一些。

  • With that being said, I think we'll continue to power sequential growth here and it really is the three priority areas of focus, capital markets, payments, and wealth management.

    話雖如此,我認為我們將繼續推動連續成長,這確實是三個優先關注領域:資本市場、支付和財富管理。

  • Execution quality is very strong and the trends we're seeing continue to be very much conducive to that.

    執行品質非常高,我們看到的趨勢仍然非常有利於這一點。

  • The payments is up 5% year over year in Q2.

    第二季的付款額較去年同期成長 5%。

  • Treasury management is within that double-digit growth, driven by client penetration.

    在客戶滲透率的推動下,資金管理實現了兩位數的成長。

  • And wealth management continues to run at very strong levels.

    財富管理持續保持強勁水平。

  • Our performance advisory, [household is up 8], AUM and net flows look really good and that's driving revenue up 8%.

    我們的績效諮詢,[家庭增加了 8]、資產管理規模和淨流量看起來非常好,這推動了收入成長 8%。

  • And capital markets, which clearly has been a little bit choppy in the back half of last year, we were pleased to see what we would expect, which was strong growth in the second quarter, particularly in our advisory business, where we know that the middle-market M&A has been in a challenging environment as interest rate environment was rising last year, that activity is now picking up and I think will sustain.

    資本市場在去年下半年顯然有點波動,我們很高興看到我們所期望的,即第二季度的強勁增長,特別是在我們的諮詢業務方面,我們知道由於去年利率環境上升,中間市場併購一直處於在充滿挑戰的環境中,這種活動現在正在回升,我認為將會持續下去。

  • So I'm expecting sequential growth in each of those areas.

    因此,我預計這些領域都會出現連續成長。

  • I think where we land in the range will be clearly a function of how well we perform in it, but strong confidence we'll get there.

    我認為我們在這個範圍內的位置顯然取決於我們在其中的表現,但我們對到達那裡充滿信心。

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

    Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • And then just last question just on credit.

    最後一個問題是關於信用的。

  • I mean, as you talked about, credit trends are really good.

    我的意思是,正如您所說,信貸趨勢非常好。

  • If I look at the ACL ratio, you're at the top end of peers.

    如果我看一下 ACL 比率,您在同齡人中處於領先地位。

  • Just how are you thinking about reserving going forward?

    您如何考慮未來的預訂?

  • Is it kind of like keep the ACL ratio fairly steady at current levels and support loan growth?

    這是否類似於將 ACL 比率保持在當前水準相當穩定並支持貸款成長?

  • And I guess what do you need to see to start lowering the ACL ratio?

    我想您需要看到什麼才能開始降低 ACL 比率?

  • Brendan Lawlor - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

    Brendan Lawlor - Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer

  • Hey, Peter, it's Brendan.

    嘿,彼得,我是布倫丹。

  • Excuse me, I'll take that one.

    對不起,我就拿那個。

  • As you sort of noted, we basically had the reserve flat this quarter at [1.95 versus 1.97] last quarter as the models add to the dollar amount of the reserve.

    正如您所指出的,隨著模型增加了準備金的美元金額,本季我們的準備金基本上持平於[1.95 vs 1.97]。

  • We just continue to watch the volatility in just the overall market, but particularly with respect to rates, as well as the impact of higher prolonger rates on our commercial real estate portfolio.

    我們將繼續關注整個市場的波動,特別是利率方面的波動,以及較高的延期利率對我們商業房地產投資組合的影響。

  • So excuse me, as we see stronger economic performance come through in our modeling, and combined with the continued solid performance of the credit portfolio, that's when we would really look to start to move the reserve down more materially.

    因此,請原諒,當我們在模型中看到更強勁的經濟表現,再加上信貸投資組合持續穩健的表現時,我們才會真正考慮開始更大幅度地降低準備金。

  • That will be -- play out over a longer period of time.

    這將在更長的時間內發揮作用。

  • And so we're just -- we're continuing to watch and manage this to the right level, but right now we feel like we're adequately reserved.

    所以我們只是——我們正在繼續觀察並將其管理到正確的水平,但現在我們覺得我們已經得到了充分的保留。

  • Peter Winter - Analyst

    Peter Winter - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Thanks for taking the questions.

    感謝您提出問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • At this time, we've reached the end of our question-and-answer session.

    此時,我們的問答環節已經結束。

  • I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Steinour for closing remarks.

    我想將電話轉回給施泰努先生做總結發言。

  • Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

    Steve Steinour - Chairman, President, & Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you for joining us today.

    好的,謝謝您今天加入我們。

  • In closing, we're pleased with our second quarter results, having delivered sequential growth in both spread and fee revenues.

    最後,我們對第二季的業績感到滿意,點差和費用收入都將連續成長。

  • We're expecting our organic growth strategies and our investments are bearing fruit with momentum building across the bank.

    我們預計我們的有機成長策略和投資將在整個銀行的發展勢頭中取得成果。

  • Our competitive position remains strong with robust capital liquidity.

    我們的競爭地位依然強勁,資本流動性強勁。

  • We continue to seize the opportunities to add talented bankers across our businesses.

    我們繼續抓住機會,在我們的業務中增加有才華的銀行家。

  • We remain focused on our long-term strategic objectives.

    我們仍然專注於我們的長期策略目標。

  • And collectively, the Board, executives, and our colleagues are a top 10 shareholder.

    董事會、高階主管和我們的同事共同構成了十大股東。

  • We have a strong alignment to deliver meaningful value for our shareholders.

    我們緊密合作,為股東創造有意義的價值。

  • Finally, special thank you to our nearly 20,000 colleagues here at the bank who support our customers every day and are the backbone of these results.

    最後,特別感謝銀行近 20,000 名同事,他們每天為我們的客戶提供支持,是這些成果的支柱。

  • Thank you for your support and interest in Huntington.

    感謝您對亨廷頓的支持與興趣。

  • Have a great day.

    祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • This will conclude today's conference.

    今天的會議到此結束。

  • You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    此時您可以斷開線路。

  • Thank you for your participation.

    感謝您的參與。

  • Have a wonderful day.

    祝你有美好的一天。