Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Huntington Bancshares fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Huntington Bancshares 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tim Sedabres, Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係總監 Tim Sedabres。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Welcome, everyone, and good morning.

歡迎大家，早安。

Copies of the slides we will be reviewing today can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded, and a replay will be available starting about one hour from the close of the call.

您可在我們網站 www.huntington.com 的投資者關係部分找到我們今天將要審查的幻燈片的副本。提醒一下，本次通話正在錄音，通話結束後約一小時將提供重播。

Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President and CEO; and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer.

今天的演講者是董事長、總裁兼執行長史蒂夫·施泰諾 (Steve Steinour)；以及財務長 Zach Wasserman。

Brendan Lawlor, Chief Credit Officer, will join us for the Q&A.

首席信貸官Brendan Lawlor 將與我們一起參與問答環節。

Earnings documents, which include our forward-looking statements disclaimer and non-GAAP information are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

收益文件（包括我們的前瞻性聲明免責聲明和非 GAAP 資訊）可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

With that, let me now turn it over to Steve.

說完這些，現在讓我把話題交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，蒂姆。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome.

大家早安，歡迎光臨。

Thank you for joining the call today.

感謝您今天的電話會議。

Building on a good third quarter, we delivered very strong fourth-quarter results, which Zach will detail later. 2024 was an exceptional year for Huntington with our teams delivering accelerated growth over the course of the year.

在第三季表現良好的基礎上，我們取得了非常強勁的第四季業績，扎克稍後將詳細介紹。 2024 年對亨廷頓來說是特別的一年，我們的團隊在這一年中實現了加速成長。

We're very grateful to our 20,000 colleagues who drove these results, while living our purpose every day, as we make people's lives better, help businesses thrive, and strengthen the communities we serve.

我們非常感謝我們的 20,000 名同事，他們推動了這些成果，同時每天都在實踐我們的目標，我們改善了人們的生活，幫助企業蓬勃發展，並加強了我們服務的社區。

Now on to slide 4.

現在轉到投影片 4。

There are five key messages we want to leave you with today.

今天我們想要傳達五個重要訊息給你們。

First, we drove record fee revenues and accelerated growth of loans and deposits.

一是手續費收入創歷史新高，貸款、存款加速成長。

This reflected contributions from both existing and new businesses.

這反映了現有業務和新業務的貢獻。

Our investments into new geographies and capabilities are delivering attractive returns, and we're seeing accelerated contributions from these new areas.

我們對新地區和新能力的投資正在帶來可觀的回報，我們看到這些新領域的貢獻正在加速。

We delivered sequential growth in both spread and fee revenues in the quarter.

本季度，我們的利差和費用收入均實現了連續成長。

We move into 2025 with strong momentum.

我們以強勁的勢頭邁入2025年。

We are poised to deliver record net interest income and fee revenues for the full year.

我們預計將實現全年創紀錄的淨利息收入和費用收入。

Third, we are executing our down beta action plans and lowering deposit pricing.

第三，我們正在執行下調測試版行動計畫並降低存款定價。

This supports management of net interest margin through a dynamic interest rate environment.

這支持透過動態利率環境來管理淨利差。

Fourth, we are achieving strong credit performance.

第四，我們的信用表現優異。

This is a direct result of our disciplined client selection and rigorous portfolio management aligned with our aggregate moderate to low-risk appetite.

這是我們嚴謹的客戶選擇和嚴格的投資組合管理以及我​​們整體中等至低風險偏好的直接結果。

Fifth, through execution of our growth strategies, we are driving profit momentum into 2025 and beyond.

第五，透過實施我們的成長策略，我們將推動獲利動能持續至2025年及以後。

I'll move us on to slide 5 to recap our performance last year. 2024 was a breakout year for Huntington.

我將轉到第 5 張投影片來回顧我們去年的表現。 2024 年對亨廷頓來說是突破的一年。

Our many years of consistent and disciplined management benefited us as we came into the year with robust liquidity and capital as well as stable credit.

多年來我們始終如一、嚴謹的管理使我們受益匪淺，在新的一年裡我們擁有強勁的流動性和資本以及穩定的信貸。

This position of strength enabled us to accelerate growth in our core, add new capabilities and teams, and expand into new geographies in North and South Carolina as well as Texas.

這一實力地位使我們能夠加速核心業務的成長，增加新的能力和團隊，並擴展到北卡羅來納州、南卡羅來納州和德克薩斯州的新地區。

We're just getting started here.

我們才剛開始。

We believe our investments and focused execution will deliver robust organic growth in future years.

我們相信，我們的投資和專注的執行將在未來幾年帶來強勁的有機成長。

The results in 2024 included growing average deposits by over $7.5 billion and growing average loans by over $3.5 billion.

2024 年的結果包括平均存款成長超過 75 億美元，平均貸款成長超過 35 億美元。

Our growth accelerated over the course of the year with our new initiatives increasing contributions to our overall results.

隨著我們的新措施對整體業績的貢獻不斷增加，我們的成長速度在過去一年中不斷加快。

Additionally, our fee revenue businesses are performing exceptionally well.

此外，我們的費用收入業務表現非常出色。

Within Payments, we brought in-house our merchant acquiring capabilities and increased treasury management products and services.

在支付領域，我們將商家收單能力引入內部，並增加了資金管理產品和服務。

Within wealth management, we're expanding advisory household relationships 9% year over year and gathering increased wealth assets from our customers.

在財富管理領域，我們的諮商家庭關係年增 9%，並從客戶累積了更多的財富資產。

Capital markets set a new quarterly record for revenue in the fourth quarter at $120 million, an increase of 74% from a year ago.

資本市場第四季營收創下季度新高，達1.2億美元，較去年同期成長74%。

Turning to slide 6.

翻到幻燈片 6。

Let me take a moment to share the top-level revenue trends we've delivered.

讓我花點時間來分享我們提供的頂級收入趨勢。

The organic growth we are driving continues to significantly outpace our peer group.

我們推動的有機成長持續大幅超越我們的同行。

We are well positioned to drive attractive and sustained revenue.

我們已做好準備，能夠帶來可觀且持續的收入。

These revenue growth trends support expanding PPNR into 2025 and beyond.

這些收入成長趨勢支持 PPNR 擴展到 2025 年及以後。

Now let's turn to slide 7.

現在我們翻到第 7 張投影片。

The growth opportunities today are the most attractive they've been since I joined Huntington.

自從我加入亨廷頓以來，今天的成長機會是最有吸引力的。

We have three primary areas of focus.

我們主要關註三個領域。

These include executing the organic growth strategy I shared earlier, driving revenues higher, and maintaining our consistent approach to risk management.

這些包括執行我之前分享的有機成長策略、提高收入以及保持我們一致的風險管理方法。

We have numerous growth levers both in our existing markets and businesses as well as the collective set of expanded geographies and new capabilities.

我們在現有市場和業務以及擴展的地域和新能力方面擁有眾多成長槓桿。

We see substantive opportunities to expand loans, deposits and value-added fee revenues.

我們看到了擴大貸款、存款和增值費用收入的巨大機會。

These efforts will result in sustained revenue expansion in both fee and spread revenue.

這些努力將使費用收入和利差收入持續增加。

Huntington benefits from a consistent approach to risk management that has served us well for many years.

亨廷頓受益於我們多年來始終如一的風險管理方法，這種方法為我們帶來了極大的便利。

We expect this bedrock principle to remain unchanged as we maintain our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite.

我們預計，在我們維持整體中等至低風險偏好的情況下，這項基本原則將保持不變。

Zach, over to you to provide more detail on our financial performance.

扎克，請您提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早安。

Slide 8 provides highlights of our fourth-quarter results.

幻燈片 8 展示了我們第四季的業績亮點。

We reported earnings per common share of $0.34. Return on tangible common equity, or ROTCE, came in at 16.4% for the quarter.

我們報告每股普通股收益為 0.34 美元。本季有形普通股權益回報率（ROTCE）為 16.4%。

Average loan balances increased by $7 billion or 5.7% versus last year.

平均貸款餘額比去年增加了 70 億美元，即 5.7%。

Average deposits increased by $9.7 billion or 6.5% versus last year.

平均存款比去年增加了 97 億美元，增幅為 6.5%。

CET1 ended the quarter at 10.5% and increased roughly 30 basis points from last year.

本季末，CET1 利率為 10.5%，較去年同期增加約 30 個基點。

Adjusted Common Equity Tier 1, including AOCI, was 8.7%.

調整後的一級普通股本資本（包括 AOCI）為 8.7%。

Tangible book value per share has increased by 6.9% year over year.

每股有形帳面價值較去年同期成長6.9%。

We maintained strong credit performance and are positioned to continue to outperform.

我們維持了強勁的信用表現，並有望繼續保持優異表現。

Net charge-offs were 30 basis points, stable from the prior quarter.

淨沖銷為 30 個基點，與上一季持平。

Allowance for credit losses ended the quarter at 1.88%.

本季末信貸損失準備金率為1.88%。

Turning to slide 9.

翻到第 9 張投影片。

Consistent with our plan and prior guidance, year-over-year average loan growth continued to accelerate.

與我們的計劃和先前的指導一致，貸款年均成長率持續加速。

Loan growth in the fourth quarter increased 5.7% year over year.

第四季貸款成長率年增5.7%。

Rising from 3.1% year over year in Q3.

較去年第三季年增 3.1%。

Average loan balances increased sequentially by $3.7 billion or 2.9%.

平均貸款餘額較上季增加 37 億美元，增幅 2.9%。

This exceptional loan growth reflects strong production and contributions from our existing and new businesses.

這一出色的貸款成長反映了我們現有業務和新業務的強勁產出和貢獻。

During the quarter, new initiatives represented $1.1 billion in growth or 30% of the total net loan growth.

本季度，新措施帶來 11 億美元的成長，佔總淨貸款成長的 30%。

Growth from new initiatives continued to accelerate, as we have guided previously, increasing from approximately $700 million and $500 million in the prior two quarters.

正如我們之前所預測的，新舉措帶來的成長繼續加速，從前兩個季度約 7 億美元和 5 億美元的增加。

Of the $3.1 billion of loan growth from existing businesses, we saw $766 million from auto; $421 million from regional banking, commercial, and industrial; $511 million from asset finance; $327 million from higher auto floorplan balances; $85 million from seasonally higher balances within distribution finance; $165 million from all other consumer categories net, including increases from residential mortgage and home equity, offset by lower RV/marine balances; and approximately $800 million collectively across the commercial bank.

在現有企業貸款成長的 31 億美元中，有 7.66 億美元來自汽車產業； 4.21 億美元來自地區銀行、商業和工業； 5.11億美元來自資產融資； 3.27 億美元來自更高的汽車平面圖餘額； 8,500 萬美元來自分銷融資中季節性較高的餘額；來自所有其他消費類別的淨收入 1.65 億美元，包括住宅抵押貸款和房屋淨值的增加，但被 RV/海運餘額的降低所抵消；以及商業銀行總計約 8 億美元。

Of the $1.1 billion of loan growth from new initiatives, the largest contributions in the quarter came from funds finance, North and South Carolina and Texas.

在新措施帶來的 11 億美元貸款成長中，本季最大的貢獻來自基金融資、北卡羅來納州、南卡羅來納州和德克薩斯州。

Offsetting a portion of this growth was lower commercial real estate balances, which declined by $465 million.

抵銷了部分成長的是商業房地產餘額的下降，減少了 4.65 億美元。

Turning to slide 10.

翻到第 10 張投影片。

The result of our accelerated loan growth continues to be a differentiated position compared to our peers.

我們的貸款加速成長使我們與同行相比繼續保持差異化地位。

Over the last year, through the third quarter, the peer group reported lower loan balances, down nearly 3% at the median.

截至去年第三季度，同業報告的貸款餘額較低，中位數下降了近 3%。

During this time, Huntington outperformed the median by approximately 6%.

在此期間，亨廷頓的表現比中位數高出約 6%。

Importantly, we have sustained deposit growth to self-fund our expanded loan balances.

重要的是，我們保持存款成長，從而為擴大的貸款餘額提供資金。

With deposit growth also substantially outperforming peers on a cumulative basis.

從累計數據來看，存款成長也大幅優於同業。

Turning to slide 11.

翻到第 11 張投影片。

We delivered deposit growth through the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季度實現了存款成長。

Average deposits increased by $2.9 billion or 1.9%.

平均存款增加了 29 億美元，增幅 1.9%。

This growth was led by our commercial customers.

這一成長主要由我們的商業客戶推動。

Non-interest-bearing deposits expanded, growing by approximately $800 million on average, totaling 18.6% of total deposits.

無息存款增加，平均成長約 8 億美元，佔總存款的 18.6%。

We lowered our overall cost of deposits in the quarter by 24 basis points to 2.16%.

我們將本季的總存款成本降低了 24 個基點，至 2.16%。

This is consistent with the trajectory we shared in our mid-quarter update and reflects our disciplined deposit pricing.

這與我們在季度中期更新中分享的軌跡一致，並反映了我們嚴格的存款定價。

On to slide 12.

轉到投影片 12。

During the quarter, we drove a $45 million or 3.3% growth in net interest income.

本季度，我們的淨利息收入成長了 4,500 萬美元，即 3.3%。

This reflects over 6% growth year over year, and net interest income has increased for the third consecutive quarter.

這體現了同比增長超過6%，並且淨利息收入連續第三個季度增加。

Net interest margin was 3.03% for the fourth quarter, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter.

第四季淨利差為3.03%，較上季上升5個基點。

The change in net interest margin included 3 basis points lower spread net of free funds, more than offset by 3 basis points benefit from lower cash balances and a 5 basis point benefit from lower drag from the hedging program.

淨利差的變化包括扣除自由資金後的利差下降 3 個基點，但被現金餘額減少 3 個基點帶來的收益和對沖計劃拖累減少 5 個基點帶來的收益所抵消。

Turning to slide 13.

翻到第 13 張投影片。

Our level of cash and securities at year-end decreased to 28% of total assets, as we saw modestly lower cash balances in the quarter.

由於本季現金餘額略有下降，我們年底的現金和證券水準下降至總資產的 28%。

We expect to operate at or around this level going forward.

我們預計未來營運將維持在這個水準或左右。

We have continued to reinvest securities cash flows into treasuries and as previously stated, expect to manage the duration of the portfolio at approximately the current range.

我們繼續將證券現金流再投資於國債，並且如前所述，預計投資組合的期限將控制在當前範圍內。

As previously disclosed, we sold approximately $1 billion of corporate securities during the fourth quarter.

如前所述，我們在第四季度出售了價值約 10 億美元的公司證券。

This repositioning was beneficial to risk-weighted assets and capital ratios and resulted in a pretax loss of $21 million, with an earn back of less than two years.

此次重新定位有利於風險加權資產和資本比率，並導致稅前損失 2,100 萬美元，回報期不到兩年。

Turning to slide 14.

翻到第 14 張投影片。

We continue to manage our hedging program with two objectives in mind, to protect net interest margin from a lower rate environment as well as to protect capital from a potential higher rate environment.

我們將繼續管理我們的對沖計劃，並牢記兩個目標：保護淨利差免受低利率環境的影響，以及保護資本免受潛在的高利率環境的影響。

We have remained relatively stable in our hedging position since November.

自11月以來，我們的對沖部位一直保持相對穩定。

We continue to monitor the likelihood of potential rate scenarios and will remain dynamic as we adjust to the rate environment.

我們將繼續監控潛在利率情境的可能性，並將根據利率環境保持動態調整。

Moving to slide 15.

移至投影片 15。

On a GAAP basis, non-interest income increased by $154 million from the prior year.

根據 GAAP 標準，非利息收入較前一年增加 1.54 億美元。

On a core underlying basis, adjusting for the impacts of the loss on securities, CRT transactions, and the pay-fixed swaptions mark-to-market from the prior year, fee revenues increased by $96 million or 20%.

在核心基礎上，調整上年度證券損失、CRT 交易和固定付費掉期選擇權以市價計算的影響，費用收入增加了 9,600 萬美元，增幅為 20%。

Moving to slide 16.

移至投影片 16。

We have continued to see powerful acceleration from our focus on three strategic fee businesses.

我們專注於三項策略費用業務，並持續取得強勁成長。

For the full year, fee revenues as a percentage of total revenue increased to 28% from 26% to the prior year.

全年費用收入佔總收入的比例從上年的26%上升至28%。

Within payments, we saw 8% growth year over year in the fourth quarter, driven by a 16% increase in commercial payment revenues benefiting from higher treasury management fees and the launch of our new merchant acquiring model.

在支付方面，我們在第四季度實現了同比增長 8%，這得益於財務管理費的提高和新商戶收單模式的推出，商業支付收入增長了 16%。

Wealth management fees increased by 8% from the prior year.

理財費用較上年增加8%。

AUM continued to grow, increasing 16% from the prior year, with wealth advisory households having increased by 9%.

AUM 持續成長，比上年增加 16%，其中財富諮詢家庭增加 9%。

Finally, capital markets completed a record quarter with $120 million in revenue.

最後，資本市場以 1.2 億美元的收入完成了創紀錄的季度。

That's up 74% from the prior year.

這比上年增長了 74%。

Our Capstone Group had a phenomenal quarter, helping to lead our strong capital markets results.

我們的 Capstone Group 本季表現出色，幫助我們取得強勁的資本市場表現。

Turning to slide 17.

翻到第 17 張投影片。

GAAP non-interest expense increased sequentially by $48 million and underlying core expenses increased by $57 million from Q3.

與第三季相比，GAAP 非利息支出較上季增加了 4,800 萬美元，核心基本支出較上季增加了 5,700 萬美元。

The primary driver of the increase in expenses was in personnel costs, largely comprised of higher revenue-driven compensation expense, which was $42 million higher in the quarter.

費用增加的主要原因是人事成本，其中大部分包括更高的收入驅動的薪酬費用，本季增加了 4,200 萬美元。

Slide 18 recaps our capital position.

投影片 18 概括了我們的資本狀況。

Common Equity Tier 1 ended the quarter at 10.5%.

一級普通股本資本充足率本季末為 10.5%。

Our adjusted CET1 ratio, inclusive of AOCI, was 8.7%, up approximately 10 basis points from a year ago.

我們的調整後 CET1 比率（包括 AOCI）為 8.7%，比一年前上升了約 10 個基點。

Our capital management strategy remains focused on driving our top priority to fund high-return loan growth while also driving capital ratios higher.

我們的資本管理策略仍專注於推動我們的首要任務，為高回報貸款成長提供資金，同時提高資本比率。

We intend to drive adjusted CET1 inclusive of AOCI into our operating range of 9% to 10%.

我們打算將包括 AOCI 在內的調整後 CET1 納入 9% 至 10% 的營運範圍。

On slide 19, credit quality continues to perform very well.

在投影片 19 上，信用品質持續表現良好。

Net charge-offs were 30 basis points for the quarter, stable from Q3 and within 1 basis point of that level over the past four quarters.

本季淨沖銷額為 30 個基點，與第三季保持穩定，且與過去四個季度相比相差 1 個基點以內。

For the full year, net charge-offs also totaled 30 basis points, well within our through-the-cycle range.

就全年而言，淨沖銷總額也達到了 30 個基點，遠低於我們的週期範圍。

Allowance for credit losses was at 1.88%, lower by 5 basis points from the prior quarter.

信用損失準備率為1.88%，較上一季下降5個基點。

This reflects the continued strong credit performance and loan portfolio growth.

這反映了信貸表現和貸款組合持續強勁成長。

Turning to slide 20.

翻到第 20 張投影片。

The criticized asset ratio improved for the third consecutive quarter to 3.76%.

受批評的資產比率連續第三個季度改善至3.76%。

The non-performing asset ratio ended the quarter at 63 basis points, relatively stable over the prior three quarters.

本季末不良資產率為63個基點，與前三個季度相比相對穩定。

Let's turn to slide 21 for our outlook for 2025.

讓我們翻到第 21 張幻燈片來了解我們對 2025 年的展望。

We expect to continue to drive robust loan growth with balances expected to increase between 5% and 7% for the full year.

我們預計貸款將繼續強勁成長，全年貸款餘額預計將成長 5% 至 7%。

Deposits are also expected to sustain growth with balances increasing between 3% and 5%.

預計存款也將繼續增長，餘額將增加 3% 至 5%。

We see net interest income on a dollar basis growing between 4% and 6% this year.

我們預計今年以美元計算的淨利息收入將成長 4% 至 6%。

As noted, this level would reflect record net interest income on a full year basis.

如上所述，這一水準將反映全年創紀錄的淨利息收入。

We will maintain our focus on key fee revenue areas, including payments, wealth management, and capital markets which we expect to lead to non-interest income growth between 4% and 6% for 2025.

我們將繼續專注於關鍵費用收入領域，包括支付、財富管理和資本市場，我們預計這些領域將使 2025 年非利息收入成長 4% 至 6%。

Expense growth will be driven by sustained investments in revenue-producing initiatives, albeit at a moderately lower pace of growth than we saw in full year 2024.

費用成長將受到對創收計畫的持續投資的推動，儘管其成長速度將略低於我們在 2024 年全年看到的成長速度。

We expect expense growth between 3.5% and 4.5%.

我們預計費用成長率在 3.5% 至 4.5% 之間。

The pace of expense growth will in part be driven by revenue levels and the associated variable compensation expense.

費用成長的速度在一定程度上取決於收入水準和相關的變動薪酬費用。

Importantly, we see positive operating leverage for full year 2025.

重要的是，我們預計 2025 年全年的營運槓桿為正。

Related to credit, we expect net charge-offs for the year to be between 25 and 35 basis points.

對於信貸，我們預計今年的淨沖銷額將在 25 至 35 個基點之間。

The effective tax rate for the year is expected to be approximately 19%.

預計本年度有效稅率約為19%。

Let me also share a couple of thoughts on where we see trends for the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

我也想分享一下我對第一季與第四季趨勢對比的一些看法。

We expect average loan balances to grow approximately 2%, average deposits to be relatively stable sequentially, net interest income on a dollar basis to be lower by approximately 2% to 3% reflecting normal day count headwinds as well as a modestly lower net interest margin, fee revenues normalizing in the first quarter given seasonality and recognizing the record level we delivered in the fourth quarter.

我們預計平均貸款餘額將增加約2%，平均存款將環比保持相對穩定，以美元計算的淨利息收入將下降約2% 至3%，這反映了正常日數計算的不利因素以及略低的淨息差由於季節性因素，第一季費用收入恢復正常，並且第四季度我們達到了創紀錄的水平。

Fee revenues are expected to be approximately $500 million in the first quarter and then expand from that level over the course of the year.

預計第一季的費用收入約為 5 億美元，並將在今年內從這一水平擴大。

Expenses are likewise expected to be lower in the first quarter, given the strong year-end production levels we delivered in the fourth quarter.

鑑於我們在第四季實現的強勁年終生產水平，預計第一季的費用也將降低。

We forecast expenses to be down approximately 2% from the fourth quarter, the exact level of which will fluctuate dependent on revenue-driven compensation.

我們預測支出將較第四季下降約 2%，具體水準將根據收入驅動的薪酬而波動。

With that, we'll conclude our prepared remarks and move to Q&A.

至此，我們將結束準備好的發言並進入問答環節。

Tim, over to you.

提姆，交給你了。

Thank you, Zach.

謝謝你，扎克。

Operator, we will now take questions.

接線員，我們現在開始回答問題。

(Event Instructions)

(活動須知)

(Operator Instructions) Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示） 摩根士丹利的 Manan Gosalia。

Zach, can you talk about the confidence around the NII guidance range?

扎克，你能談談對 NII 指導範圍的信心嗎？

It's a tighter range than last year.

今年的範圍比去年更窄。

And I ask because I know there's a lot of uncertainty from trade and immigration and tax policy.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為我知道貿易、移民和稅收政策存在著許多不確定性。

So I just wanted to get a sense of what's embedded in that guide from a macro perspective.

所以我只是想從宏觀角度了解該指南中的內容。

Yeah.

是的。

Great question, Manan, I appreciate your focus on that.

很好的問題，馬南，我很欣賞你對此的關注。

And the short answer to your question is we're very confident that we can drive revenue growth within that range.

對你的問題的簡短回答是，我們非常有信心能夠推動該範圍內的收入成長。

Ultimately, where we see the year playing out, obviously, still pretty dynamic here in terms of short-term rate outlook and even what's going on in the belly in the longer-term part of the curve.

最終，從短期利率前景甚至曲線較長期部分的情況來看，我們看到今年的情況顯然仍相當活躍。

But we see the ability to manage the NIM within any reasonable range of zero cuts to up to two or three cuts at approximately flat throughout the course of 2025, rising as we go into 2026 and beyond with the normal upward sloping yield curve and just continued growth in high-return areas, but generally flat in NIM for 2025.

但我們認為，在2025 年期間，我們有能力將淨利差控制在零次降息至最多兩次或三次降息的合理範圍內，並使其基本持平，進入2026 年及以後，收益率曲線將正常向上傾斜，並將繼續上升。 高回報領域將出現成長，但到 2025 年，NIM 總體將保持穩定。

That's really going to be loan growth before an earnings asset growth overall that drives the revenue performance this year.

這實際上是貸款成長，而不是整體獲利資產成長，從而推動今年的營收表現。

And we think we've set the range at a level that's very achievable and within the run rates that we're seeing now.

我們認為，我們已將範圍設定在一個非常可實現的水平，並且在我們現在看到的運行率之內。

Got it.

知道了。

And you're growing loans faster than deposits this year.

今年你們的貸款成長速度比存款成長速度快。

It sounds like you're reversing some of the trends that we've seen in 2024.

聽起來你正在扭轉我們在 2024 年看到的一些趨勢。

Can you talk about what's driving that?

你能談談推動這現象的因素嗎？

And does that give you more room to flex on deposit costs as you go through the year?

這是否會給您在全年存款成本方面提供更多的靈活空間？

Yeah.

是的。

Another good one.

又一個好消息。

Look, in terms of loan growth, we're running right now -- in the fourth quarter, we just posted 5.7% growth, greater than the 5% that we've been calling out for some time in terms of the exit growth rate we'd see.

就貸款成長而言，我們目前正在運行——在第四季度，我們剛剛公佈了 5.7% 的成長率，高於我們一段時間以來所預測的 5% 的退出成長率我們會看到。

I feel really good about that.

我對此感覺非常好。

As we noted in some of the prepared remarks, about 60% of that coming from the core, 40% from the new initiatives.

正如我們在一些準備好的評論中所指出的，其中約 60% 來自核心舉措，40% 來自新舉措。

So a really good mix of growth.

這確實是一個很好的成長組合。

As we go into 2025, that 5% to up to 7% growth in loans is, for the most part, just sort of continuing on that run rate.

當我們進入 2025 年時，貸款成長率將保持 5% 至 7%，在很大程度上仍將保持這一成長。

We think the growth composition in 2025 will be approximately half and half between the core and the new initiatives.

我們認為，2025年的成長組成將大約是核心措施和新措施各佔一半。

So we continue to see nice balance, certainly great performance across the board.

因此，我們繼續看到良好的平衡，當然全面的表現也很出色。

As we -- as you think about the loan-to-deposit ratio, we were very intentional over the course of the last couple of years to drive strong deposit growth.

正如我們——當您考慮貸款與存款比率時，我們在過去幾年中非常有意推動強勁的存款成長。

I think we talked a number of times before this to some, we were prefunding, but we expect it to be accelerating loan growth.

我想我們在此之前已經和一些人談過很多次了，我們正在進行預先融資，但我們預計這將加速貸款成長。

And so pleased to see that plan and play out well.

我很高興看到這個計劃順利實施。

As we think about the plan for '25, growing deposits still pretty well here between 3% and 5%.

當我們考慮 25 年的計劃時，存款成長率仍然相當高，介於 3% 到 5% 之間。

Core funding most of the loan growth but also benefiting from the fact that we have taken the loan-to-deposit ratio down a bit.

核心資金為大部分貸款成長提供了資金，但也受益於我們略微降低了貸存比。

So I think that does set us up pretty well to continue to drive the beta plan, which has outperformed thus far into the first quarter and see further down deposit pricing even as we accelerate loan growth.

因此，我認為這確實為我們繼續推動測試計劃奠定了良好的基礎，該計劃迄今為止在第一季表現出色，並且在我們加速貸款增長的同時，存款價格也進一步下降。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰‧潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore。

Related to that growth that you're just talking about on the loan side, can you maybe help us with the new money loan production yield that you're bringing on these new loans at?

關於您剛才談到的貸款方面的成長，您能否幫助我們了解這些新貸款帶來的新貨幣貸款生產收益率？

So overall, new money production yield versus your existing yield?

那麼整體而言，新資金生產收益率與現有收益率相比如何？

And then maybe more specifically underneath that, what is the new money yield on that $1.1 billion this quarter generated from the new initiatives?

然後也許更具體地說，本季新措施產生的 11 億美元新資金收益率是多少？

Appreciate the question, John.

非常感謝您的提問，約翰。

And I'm not going to dive into the depths of that, but I'll sort of talk about this at a high level.

我不會深入探討這個問題，但我會從較高的層面談論這個問題。

The yields we're seeing ultimately are very consistent with kind of spread levels we got with this overall.

我們最終看到的收益率與我們整體獲得的利差水準非常一致。

That's why you're seeing a pretty consistent level of NIM.

這就是您看到 NIM 水平相當一致的原因。

Obviously, the business being roughly 50% fixed asset production.

顯然，該業務約有 50% 是固定資產生產。

Those are keyed off of the belly of the curve the other 50% being variable keyed off of the shorter end.

這些都是由曲線的腹部決定的，另外 50% 是可變的，由較短的一端決定。

One of the things I didn't say just a minute ago, what Manan was asking was that if you sort of unpack what's going on in yield and NIM.

我剛才沒有說的一件事，Manan 想問的是，如果您能解開收益率和 NIM 中發生的事情的話。

We continue to benefit from quite a bit of fixed asset repricing given where the belly is.

考慮到腹部的位置，我們繼續受益於相當多的固定資產重新定價。

And so all those things will help us together to get to that stable NIM we talked about before.

因此，所有這些事情將幫助我們共同實現我們之前談到的穩定的 NIM。

Okay.

好的。

All right, Zach.

好的，扎克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just hopping to capital.

然後就跳到資本。

I know the CET1 at 10.5%, that's down to adjusted for AOCI, 8.7%.

我知道 CET1 為 10.5%，根據 AOCI 調整後為 8.7%。

And I know you're targeting 9% to 10%, including of that.

我知道你的目標是 9% 到 10%，包括這個。

So fair to assume, I know buybacks are still kind of on hold.

所以可以合理地假設，我知道回購仍然處於暫停狀態。

How long do you see that?

你看到這個多久了？

Do you see a potential change in that outlook as you look at the capital generation that you're forecasting for the year?

當您查看今年資本創造的預測時，您是否認為這種前景可能會改變？

Just trying to think how we should think about capital return.

只是想思考我們應該如何考慮資本回報。

Yeah.

是的。

Good question.

好問題。

As you think about capital for us, we're focused on the goals that we've had that are unchanged, most important, which is funding high-return loan growth.

當您考慮我們的資本時，我們專注於我們始終不變的目標，最重要的是，為高回報貸款成長提供資金。

And so we're pleased that, that's really been a great opportunity for us to deploy our internally generated capital.

因此我們很高興，這對我們來說真的是一個部署內部資本的好機會。

An adjusted CET1 ratio of 8.7%.

調整後的 CET1 比率為 8.7%。

Our objective remains the same, which is to drive that up into the 9% to 10% operating range.

我們的目標保持不變，那就是將其提高到 9% 到 10% 的營運範圍。

And I expect that we'll do that within the first half of 2025.

我預計我們將在 2025 年上半年實現這一目標。

And then continue to drive that higher solidly within that range.

然後繼續在這個範圍內穩步提高。

My working forecast at this point, John, is that if we continue to see RWA growth and loan growth as we're forecasting, that will likely be bouncing around the kind of the low 9s throughout the course of 2025.

約翰，我目前的預測是，如果我們繼續看到 RWA 成長和貸款成長如我們所預測的那樣，那麼在 2025 年期間，它們可能會在 9% 以下徘徊。

It obviously also depends on where the longer end of the yield curve is, and where the AOCI marks trend.

顯然，這也取決於殖利率曲線的較長端在哪裡，以及 AOCI 標記趨勢的位置。

Under that scenario, there's relatively little capacity to do share repurchases in the near term.

在這種情況下，短期內回購股票的能力相對較少。

Over the longer term, as we continue to drive CET1 up into that range, I would expect us to return to more normal distribution, including share repurchases.

從長遠來看，隨著我們繼續將 CET1 推高至該範圍，我預計我們將恢復到更正常的分配，包括股票回購。

So 2025 will to some degree really to be dependent on that pace of loan growth and where the longer end of the yield curve end up coming through.

因此，2025 年在某種程度上將真正取決於貸款成長速度以及殖利率曲線較長端的最終走向。

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess, Zach, just following up on the comments on the loan-to-deposit ratio.

我想，扎克，只是跟進關於貸款與存款比率的評論。

As we think about, let's say, loan growth meets deposit growth in '25.

我們想像一下，假設 25 年貸款成長與存款成長相遇。

Just talk about your expectations around the incremental margin.

只需談談您對增量利潤的期望。

And what's the incremental cost of deposits that are coming on relative to where you see the rest of the book repricing?

相對於其他帳簿的重新定價，即將產生的存款的增量成本是多少？

Yes.

是的。

Good questions.

好問題。

The loan-to-deposit ratio, we ended with kind of exiting Q4 level was 79%.

我們第四季的貸款與存款比率達到 79%。

So it really gives us a powerful opportunity to continue to drive a loan growth faster than deposit growth for some period of time, even though we're looking to core fund.

因此，儘管我們正在尋求核心基金，但這確實為我們提供了一個強大的機會，讓我們在一段時間內繼續推動貸款成長速度快於存款成長速度。

The marginal spreads we're seeing now are very consistent on us, mentioned earlier in John's prior question to what we've seen in the past

我們現在看到的邊際利差與我們過去看到的情況非常一致，約翰之前的問題中提到過

.

。

And I think, obviously, in the near term, we'll continue to see acquisition deposit rates come down and benefit from the lower yield curve, what's going on with Fed funds reductions.

我認為，顯然，在短期內，我們將繼續看到收購存款利率下降並受益於較低的殖利率曲線，聯邦基金利率削減的情況也是如此。

But -- and over the longer term, we'll continue to see that NIM begin to rise as we go into 2025 -- the end of '25 -- excuse me, into '26 and beyond.

但是 — — 從長遠來看，隨著我們進入 2025 年 — — 25 年底 — — 對不起，進入 26 年及以後，我們將繼續看到 NIM 開始上升。

Got it.

知道了。

And I guess just one quick one on the fee outlook around payments, wealth management, cap markets.

我想簡單問一下關於支付、財富管理和資本市場的費用前景。

How much of the fee growth is tied to lending or I'm just trying to think through if lending or loan growth is slower, could you still have a fee revenue backdrop, which could be in line or better than what you've guided this morning?

費用增長中有多少與貸款有關，或者我只是想弄清楚，如果貸款或貸款增長較慢，您是否仍能獲得費用收入背景，這可能與您今年的指導一致或更好早晨？

Fundamentally, the fee strategies are there to support the overall core business.

從根本上來說，費用策略是為了支持整體核心業務。

And so the faster the core business grows the more fee revenues opportunities there are, of course.

因此，核心業務成長越快，費用收入機會當然就越多。

And to give you a sense as you look in some of our new growth initiatives in the Carolinas, in Texas and some of the new specialty commercial businesses.

讓您了解我們在卡羅來納州、德克薩斯州的一些新的成長舉措以及一些新的專業商業業務。

As those grow, we're seeing nice pull-through in terms of fees, particularly treasury management, Ebrahim.

隨著這些業務的成長，我們看到費用方面的良好成長，特別是財務管理費用，易卜拉欣。

With that being said, another core element of the fee strategy is really penetrating the opportunity more fully.

話雖如此，費用策略的另一個核心要素是更充分地挖掘機會。

So wealth management, for example, I wouldn't consider to be highly correlated with loan growth more around kind of what we're seeing in terms of penetration.

因此，以財富管理為例，我認為它與貸款成長的相關性並不高，更多的是取決於我們所看到的滲透率。

So it's broadly correlated, but I think also very independent in terms of the strategies that we're driving.

因此，它們具有廣泛的相關性，但我認為，就我們所推動的策略而言，它們也具有很大的獨立性。

My expectation over the long term, is we'll see payments, wealth management, capital markets all being high single digit to low double-digit growth in revenues in a pretty sustainable way over the course of the long term.

我的長期預期是，我們將看到支付、財富管理、資本市場等各領域的收入在長期內都以相當可持續的方式實現高個位數到低兩位數的增長。

Brian Foran, Truist.

布萊恩·福蘭，Truist。

I guess (inaudible) definitely recognize that your '25 loan and deposit growth guide, most of your peers so far seem to be like flat, up 2%, so you're continuing peer-leading growth.

我想（聽不清楚）肯定認識到您的 25 年貸款和存款增長指南，到目前為止，您的大多數同行似乎都持平，上漲了 2%，因此您仍保持著同行領先的增長。

But just in terms of like it's kind of like flat to decelerating in terms of growth rates from where we are now and conceptually, like why would you decelerate?

但是就我們現在的成長率而言，它有點像持平或減速，從概念上講，為什麼要減速呢？

Is it macro inputs?

它是巨集輸入嗎？

Or is it seasoning of investments?

還是投資的調味？

Or what would -- to the extent the growth rates are flat to decelerating, what would drive that kind of change in the derivative, I guess?

或者說－在成長率持平或減速的範圍內，什麼會推動衍生性商品發生這種變化？

Yeah.

是的。

Great question, Brian, and I appreciate you recognizing this peer-leading performance because we certainly feel pretty good about that.

布萊恩，這個問題問得很好，我很感激你對這種同儕領先表現的認可，因為我們對此感到非常高興。

The way I think about it is sustaining the current run rate of loan growth.

我的想法是維持目前的貸款成長率。

Again, we talked earlier, 5.7% year-over-year in Q4.

我們之前也提到過，第四季年增 5.7%。

It's pretty much spot in the middle of the loan growth range.

它基本上處於貸款成長範圍的中間位置。

And so there's potential that will be at the high end of that range, which would represent acceleration actually of loan growth.

因此，有可能達到該範圍的高端，這實際上代表著貸款成長的加速。

Deposit growth of 3% to 5% is somewhat of a deceleration from the growth rate we saw in 2024, but really reflective of us not needing to grow deposits as much and purposely driving down the cost of deposits and benefiting from, frankly, that really advantageous position we have in loan-to-deposit ratio.

3% 至 5% 的存款成長率與 2024 年的成長率相比有所放緩，但實際上反映了我們不需要增加存款太多，而是故意壓低存款成本，坦白說，這確實我們在貸存比方面佔有優勢。

So a great way to manage the NIM or all in the face of a sort of dynamic interest rate environment we got at this point.

因此，在我們目前所處的動態利率環境下，這是一種管理 NIM 或所有一切的好方法。

Over the longer term, I would expect to really well match fund with core deposits kind of in the business model as you go out past '25, what we're kind of managing just the dynamic nature of the environment right now.

從長遠來看，我希望在25年後的業務模式中，基金與核心存款能夠很好地匹配，我們現在管理的只是環境的動態性質。

And so that's how I think about it, sustaining accelerating loans and really purposely managing the deposit volumes to ensure that we can have a solid NIM and drive overall revenue growth, which is the objective.

所以這就是我的想法，維持加速貸款並真正有目的地管理存款量，以確保我們能夠擁有穩健的淨息差並推動整體收入成長，這是我們的目標。

Brian, this is Steve.

布萊恩，這是史蒂夫。

There's also seasonality.

還有季節性。

We're very large asset finance lender, as you know, and that typically has a very strong fourth quarter.

如您所知，我們是一家規模非常大的資產融資貸款機構，通常第四季度的業績非常強勁。

And so annualizing on that fourth quarter doesn't reflect seasonality in asset finance and some other businesses that are seasonal in nature, but we're coming into '25 with momentum.

因此，第四季的年化數據並不能反映資產融資和其他一些季節性業務的季節性，但我們正以強勁勢頭進入 25 年。

We have had -- we're about 50% better this year to last year with pipelines in most of the businesses.

我們已經知道——今年我們的大多數業務的管道比去年增長了約 50%。

So we've got a lot of confidence in the loan growth within the range.

因此，我們對範圍內的貸款成長非常有信心。

We talked about and perhaps if the outlook continues to be robust, we'll have an opportunity to exceed.

我們討論過，如果前景繼續強勁，我們將有機會超越。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Maybe as a follow-up, these eight -- I was going to say eight states and three verticals.

也許作為後續，這八個——我要說的是八個州和三個垂直行業。

The 8 verticals and three states, anything you would highlight as kind of the standout on the good side?

8 個垂直領域和 3 個狀態，您認為哪些是突出的優點？

Do you think that's been maybe a little bit more challenging?

您認為這可能更具挑戰性嗎？

And as you think about investments for '25, is it mostly about continuing to invest in the eight and the three?

當您考慮 25 年的投資時，主要是繼續投資於八和三嗎？

Or is there anything that could potentially be new verticals or new states on the docket?

或者是否有任何可能成為新垂直領域或新狀態的議題被列入議程？

Well, Brian, great question.

嗯，布萊恩，這個問題問得好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We've invested in the core markets as well as these three new geographic markets and then these eight verticals.

我們投資了核心市場、這三個新的地理市場以及這八個垂直市場。

So we've added several hundred RMs and new business generators in the last 1.5 years.

因此，我們在過去 1.5 年中增加了數百個 RM 和新業務產生器。

We're very pleased with the overall performance.

我們對整體表現非常滿意。

We've had some outstanding results.

我們取得了一些出色的成果。

We're off to a strong start in both Carolinas and Texas.

我們在卡羅來納州和德克薩斯州都取得了良好的開端。

Our fund finance business has ramped up faster than any business we've had -- any specialty business we've had.

我們的基金金融業務的成長速度比我們以往的任何業務——任何專業業務——都要快。

They're all doing reasonably well.

他們都表現得相當不錯。

In aggregate, they're ahead, meaningfully ahead of expectations.

整體而言，他們的表現超出預期，且顯著超出預期。

But the regional geographies of the Carolinas and Texas on a direct expense basis, all actually made money last year.

但以直接支出計算，卡羅來納州和德克薩斯州的區域地理區域去年實際上都賺了錢。

So we like the start.

所以我們喜歡這個開始。

We're confident.

我們有信心。

We have excellent colleagues who are -- who have joined us and, and we're well positioned to continue that growth.

我們擁有優秀的同事——他們加入了我們，我們已準備好繼續實現這一成長。

So organic growth is our priority, and we'll continue to look for growth from those where we've made investments.

因此，有機成長是我們的首要任務，我們將繼續從我們投資的領域尋求成長。

And at the same time, as you saw earlier this month, we launched two others with Aero & Defense and FIG.

同時，正如您在本月初看到的，我們還推出了另外兩款產品，即 Aero & Defense 和 FIG。

And there will potentially be additional specialty verticals as we go forward, probably not at the rate of the last 1.5 years, however.

隨著我們前進，可能會有更多的專業垂直市場，但可能不會以過去 1.5 年的速度成長。

(Operator Instructions) Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Jon Arfstrom，RBC 資本市場。

Steve, just maybe following up on that a little bit on loan growth.

史蒂夫，也許我們需要稍微跟進一下貸款成長的情況。

You -- in your prepared comments, you said these are some of the most attractive opportunities you've seen since you've joined Huntington and 50% higher pipelines.

您 - 在您準備好的評論中，您說這些是您加入亨廷頓以來看到的最具吸引力的機會，而且頻道數量增加了 50%。

Can you talk a little bit about the borrower feedback that you're hearing over the last few months?

您能否談談過去幾個月您聽到的借款人的回饋？

And then if you could touch a little bit also on the core growth, the $3.1 billion in core growth was obviously, much stronger and you guys flagged lower CRE.

然後，如果您可以稍微談談核心成長，31 億美元的核心成長顯然更加強勁，而且您們標記的 CRE 較低。

So just kind of curious if there's a sentiment change and what's driving that core growth?

所以我只是好奇情緒是否改變了以及是什麼推動了核心成長？

Jon, the borrower sentiment, the customer center, I should say, is consistently positive.

喬恩，我應該說，借款人的情緒、客戶中心一直是正面的。

The outlook post-election has changed.

選舉後的前景已經改變。

You see it in the confidence measures indices that are both consumer and business.

您可以在消費者和企業信心衡量指數中看到這一點。

And when I'm out, I've probably been out with 100-or-so customers and prospects since the election, and it's almost 100% or more positive about '25 and beyond.

當我出去時，自大選以來我可能已經與 100 位左右的客戶和潛在客戶出去過，我對 25 年及以後的前景幾乎 100% 或更多持樂觀態度。

So there is a consensus, I think, expected growth, increased inventories.

因此我認為大家一致認為，預期成長，庫存增加。

We saw record asset finance in the fourth quarter, about $600 million more than we did previously as a record.

我們在第四季的資產融資創下了歷史新高，比之前創下的歷史最高紀錄高出約 6 億美元。

And I think that reflects sort of an unlocking of expectations.

我認為這體現出某種程度的期望釋放。

There was a lot of deferred finance activities, I think, in the first half of the year and then waiting to see the election and then decisions were made and significant investments reflected in the fourth quarter.

我認為，上半年有很多推遲的財務活動，然後等待選舉，然後做出決定，並在第四季度反映重大投資。

December was a very robust month for us, for example, in the asset finance side.

例如在資產融資方面，十二月對我們來說是非常強勁的一個月。

So we're heading in the momentum we have is reflective, I think, of the sentiment and gives us a lot of confidence as we come into the year.

所以，我認為，我們所保持的勢頭反映了人們的情緒，並在進入新的一年時給予了我們很大的信心。

In terms of the core growth, again, we have some seasonality in that core growth in the fourth quarter with asset finance and commercial real estate, we believe is close to bottoming out.

就核心成長而言，第四季資產融資和商業房地產的核心成長具有一定的季節性，我們認為已經接近觸底。

We're prepared to increase the outstandings and commitments.

我們準備增加未償債務和承諾債務。

In CRE, the book has performed exceptionally well.

在商業房地產 (CRE) 方面，該書的表現十分出色。

In aggregate, the group is performing exceptionally well.

總體而言，該集團的表現非常出色。

So while we're talking about home growth, we feel the same way about fees and deposits with our 2024 performance.

因此，當我們談論住房成長時，我們對 2024 年的費用和存款有同樣的看法。

And so we come into the new year with a lot of confidence in terms of our growth.

因此，我們對我們的成長充滿信心，滿懷期待地迎接新的一年。

Good.

好的。

That's very helpful, Steve.

這非常有幫助，史蒂夫。

And then one more for you with the new administration coming in and some changes in the regulatory leadership, what regulatory changes would you like to see?

還有一個問題，隨著新政府的上台以及監管領導層的變動，您希望看到哪些監管變化？

What could help Huntington?

什麼可以幫助亨廷頓？

I think the business community as a whole will benefit from a more positive pro-business orientation with the new administration.

我認為，新政府更積極的親商政策將使整個商界受益。

And so I think you'll see more acquisition and combinations in the business community as a whole.

因此我認為你會看到整個商業界出現更多的收購和合併。

I think in banking, we'll have more stability, and less uncertainty about liquidity and capital and other issues.

我認為，銀行業將更加穩定，流動性、資本和其他問題的不確定性將減少。

I think the banks generally are well capitalized and this overhang of Basel III, I think will get addressed fairly quickly.

我認為銀行通常資本充足，並且巴塞爾協議 III 的這個問題將很快得到解決。

Beyond that, I believe, a more constructive dialogue about willingness to do business with less oversight and constraint is probable, and we'll just have to see if that develops.

除此之外，我相信，關於在較少監督和約束下開展業務的意願的更具建設性的對話是可能的，我們只需要看看這種情況是否會發展。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

This is Nate Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor.

這是代表 Matt O’Connor 的 Nate Stein。

I wanted to ask about the NIM components.

我想問有關 NIM 組件的問題。

In October, you said NIM should be above 3% in the second half of '25, but you're above 3% now.

十月您曾說過，2025年下半年NIM 應該超過3%，但現在已經超過3%了。

I heard you say modestly lower NIM in the first quarter, but can you elaborate on your NIM outlook for the full year?

我聽說您說第一季的 NIM 會略有下降，但您能詳細說明一下全年的 NIM 前景嗎？

Sure.

當然。

This is Zach.

這是札克。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Across the course of the year, I'm expecting to see approximately 3% NIM plus or minus a few basis points on a quarterly basis, but generally pretty flat throughout the course of this year.

在今年全年中，我預計淨利息收益率 (NIM) 約為 3%，每個季度上下浮動幾個基點，但總體而言，今年全年的收益率將相當平穩。

As I mentioned a minute ago, we do continue to see the opportunity to drive NIM higher as we go into '26 and beyond, particularly driven by the just continued normalization of an upward sloping yield curve.

正如我剛才提到的，隨著我們進入 26 年及以後，我們確實繼續看到推動 NIM 走高的機會，特別是在收益率曲線持續正常化向上傾斜的推動下。

If you kind of unpack the drivers of NIM in 2025, one major benefit for us, which we've seen come through powerfully throughout the course of '24 as well as fixed asset repricing.

如果您對2025 年NIM 的驅動因素進行分析，您會發現，對我們來說，一個重大好處是，我們已經看到這一好處在整個24 年期間以及固定資產重新定價過程中發揮了強大的作用。

To give you a sense, in 2024, we had about 12 basis points benefit from fixed asset repricing as we go into 2025, I'm seeing continued benefits and just based on the increases in the belly of the curve and the slightly longer part of the yield curve recently seeing about 10 basis points likely of benefit from fixed asset repricing in 2025.

給你一個概念，在 2024 年，我們從固定資產重新定價中獲得了大約 12 個基點的收益，而進入 2025 年，我看到收益持續增加，而且僅基於曲線腹部和略長部分的增加收益率曲線最近顯示約10 個基點，可能受益於2025 年固定資產重新定價。

So that will continue to be a really powerful headwind.

因此，這將繼續成為一股強勁的逆風。

Also back -- it will continue into 2026 and beyond, by the way.

順便說一下，它還會持續到 2026 年甚至更久。

So that will be one of the drivers of a longer-term -- we continue to move higher in NIM.

因此，這將成為長期驅動力之一——我們將繼續提高 NIM。

And another factor that will be helpful for us is deposit pricing and interest-bearing liability costs continuing to reduce.

對我們有幫助的另一個因素是存款定價和計息負債成本持續降低。

We did significantly accelerate beyond what our initial plan had been deposit pricing actions in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季度的存款定價行動確實大大超出了我們最初的計劃。

It's one of the reasons why we drove outperformance in the fourth quarter more than we would have expected.

這就是我們第四季業績超出預期的原因之一。

And we continue to feel pretty confident here about being able to drive beta as we've previously indicated and see deposit costs come down for the course of the year.

正如我們之前指出的，我們對能夠推動測試版繼續發展非常有信心，我們將看到存款成本在今年內下降。

Clearly, that will be, to some degree, a function of what's going on with the interest rate environment.

顯然，這在某種程度上取決於利率環境的狀況。

And are we in an extended pause or are there further rate reductions and what the strong market and client sentiment is around where interest rates will go.

我們是否將長期處於暫停狀態，還是會進一步降低利率，以及市場和客戶對利率走向的強勁情緒如何。

But we do see further opportunity to reduce funding costs.

但我們確實看到了進一步降低融資成本的機會。

The offset to that will clearly be the 50% of our loans that are in variable pricing status will follow SOFR.

顯然，與此相抵消的是，我們的 50% 浮動定價貸款將遵循 SOFR。

SOFR will come down into the first quarter from the fourth quarter on average.

從第四季開始，SOFR 平均會下降至第一季。

Just given the kind of late Q4 Fed fund reduction we saw in December.

鑑於我們在 12 月看到的第四季末聯邦基金利率削減情況。

So that's one of the reasons why I've called out likely a little lower net interest margin here in the first quarter.

這就是我預測第一季淨利差可能會略低的原因之一。

But over the course of the year, we're able to balance the variable yield (inaudible) funding cost reductions.

但在一年的時間裡，我們能夠平衡可變收益（聽不清楚）融資成本的降低。

And then the last factor is hedging.

最後一個因素是對沖。

We saw in the fourth quarter, a benefit as the hedge drag continued to reduce as we had previously indicated, I expect to see a further modest benefit as we get into the middle part of this year.

正如我們之前指出的，我們在第四季度看到了對沖阻力繼續減少的好處，我預計到今年中期將看到進一步的適度好處。

And then if the curve stays as it is, probably a few basis points of drag into the back half of the year.

如果曲線維持現狀，那麼下半年可能會出現幾個基點的拖累。

If you look out across the totality of the year in terms of hedging, likely a couple of basis points benefit on a full year basis and relatively similar here between Q4 and Q4.

如果從對沖的角度看全年，全年可能會有幾個基點的收益，並且第四季和第四季之間的收益相對相似。

So several puts and takes.

如此反覆多次。

If I take a step back for us, the NIM outlook for 2025, it's a pretty dynamic environment and those drivers are different on a quarterly basis, but the net result of that should be about flat throughout the course of this year and then rising as we go into '26 and beyond.

如果我退一步來看，2025 年的 NIM 前景，這是一個相當動態的環境，這些驅動因素在季度基礎上有所不同，但其淨結果應該在今年全年保持平穩，然後隨著我們將進入26年及以後。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then separately, can you talk about the securities repositioning you did this quarter?

然後另外，您能談談本季進行的證券重新定位嗎？

You sold $1 billion of securities.

你賣了價值 10 億美元的證券。

I guess there was a big march up in the long end of the yield curve, but are you planning on doing more of these repositionings?

我認為殖利率曲線的長端出現了大幅上漲，但您是否計劃進行更多此類重新定位？

Yes.

是的。

Great question.

好問題。

So the short answer to your question in terms of more is not likely.

因此，對於您的問題，簡短的回答是不太可能。

The repositioning that we did was selling about $1 billion of corporate securities that had a higher risk-weighted asset weight on them.

我們進行的重新定位是出售約 10 億美元具有更高風險加權資產權重的公司證券。

And so by selling them and reposition the portfolio, we were to unlock capital, also at a pretty attractive earn back.

因此，透過出售它們並重新定位投資組合，我們可以解鎖資本，同時獲得相當可觀的回報。

The teams have now completed the reinvestment of new securities at the higher yield, and we expect to see a less than two-year payback on that.

這些團隊目前已完成對收益率更高的新證券的再投資，我們預計回報將在不到兩年的時間內實現。

So pretty tactical, pretty marginal.

所以非常具有戰術性，非常邊緣化。

I think in overall size but attractive in and of itself.

我認為它整體規模較大，但本身就很有吸引力。

One of the things that is different with Huntington than perhaps others in the regional banking space is that because we had so effectively hedged the securities portfolio before the rate cycle began that the opportunity to do significant repositioning is simply just smaller.

亨廷頓與區域銀行領域的其他銀行的不同之處之一在於，由於我們在利率週期開始之前就已經非常有效地對沖了證券投資組合，因此進行重大重新定位的機會較小。

And so the plan we have with the securities portfolio is just to continue the current approach, and benefit from those hedges that we have put in place in the past.

因此，我們對證券投資組合的計劃只是繼續當前的方法，並從我們過去實施的對沖中獲益。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）。

The question I'm getting a lot from investors, and I'm sure you'll address this at Investor Day, is where are you sort of in the investment cycle?

投資人經常問我一個問題，我相信您會在投資人日回答這個問題，那就是您處於投資週期的哪個階段？

I think that investors have fully embraced the accelerated revenue growth at Huntington and really appreciated that you invested when everybody else was battening down the hatches.

我認為投資者已經完全接受了亨廷頓的加速收入成長，並且非常感謝您在其他人都在努力做好一切準備時進行投資。

And as we think about just going forward, do you feel like the opportunities are still there and that you were going to be at a heavier lift from an investment standpoint for now, and I'm sure we'll hear about it in a few weeks?

當我們考慮未來時，您是否覺得機會仍然存在，並且從投資角度來看，您目前將獲得更大的提升，我相信我們將在幾天后聽到這個消息週？

Or is there sort of a point in time where you feel like you can enjoy widening positive operating because you had so front-loaded the investment spend?

或者在某個時間點，您是否感覺自己可以享受不斷擴大的正向運營，因為您已經在前期投入瞭如此多的投資？

Erika, this is Steve.

艾麗卡，這是史蒂夫。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

We have momentum in the investment decisions we've made -- or as a result of the investment decisions we've made.

我們所做的投資決策具有動力——或者說，是我們所做的投資決策的結果。

And we have been approached on almost all of those specialty businesses, those verticals and essentially the same in the regions as well.

幾乎所有專業業務、垂直業務以及地區業務都與我們接洽。

So we're seeing business come to us -- business opportunities come to us via a number of avenues, sometimes directly to the management, sometimes through colleagues, but very seldom in the last 1.5 years have we used a recruiting firm for any of our new colleagues and these investments.

因此，我們看到業務透過各種管道找到我們——業務機會有時直接來自管理層，有時透過同事，但在過去的一年半里，我們很少使用招聘公司來為我們的任何業務尋找人才。新同事和這些投資。

So there is a list of areas that we've maintained over the years that we have explored.

因此，我們列出了多年來我們一直維護和探索的區域的清單。

We continue to update that list if we happen to have an approach going forward that we think makes sense or we see an opportunity that makes sense, we will look to pursue that.

如果我們碰巧有一種我們認為有意義的前進方法，或者我們看到一個有意義的機會，我們就會繼續更新該列表，我們就會尋求實現它。

So we are not at the end of an investment cycle.

因此，我們尚未處於投資週期的結束。

Having said that, we have significant momentum now and confidence in our growth and the potential because so many of these are relatively new to continue to press forward and we intend to do that.

話雖如此，我們現在擁有巨大的發展勢頭，並且對我們的成長和潛力充滿信心，因為其中許多都是相對較新的，可以繼續向前推進，我們打算這樣做。

And we'll talk more about it at the upcoming IR Day on February 6.

我們將在 2 月 6 日舉行的 IR Day 上進一步討論這個問題。

But we're performing exceptionally well.

但我們的表現非常出色。

We have momentum the last -- I think, it would be a mistake to pull back prematurely.

我們最後還有動力——我認為，過早撤退將是一個錯誤。

And I believe we're going to see more opportunity again in '25.

我相信我們將在2025年再次看到更多的機會。

Got it.

知道了。

And just a follow-up.

這只是後續行動。

I know it's an off-cycle year for Category IV banks on the stress test.

我知道今年是壓力測試中第四類銀行的非週期年。

I'm wondering how you feel about participating this year and readdressing that stress capital buffer.

我想知道您對今年參與並重新解決壓力資本緩衝問題的感受。

Yes.

是的。

Erika, this is Zach.

艾莉卡，這​​是札克。

I'll take that one.

我要那個。

Our stressed capital buffer right now is at the minimum 2.5%.

我們目前的壓力資本緩衝至少為 2.5%。

And so which we were pleased to see

我們很高興看到

--

--

You'll leave it alone.

你不會管它。

Got it.

知道了。

Clarifies -- I think, we will leave that alone.

澄清——我想，我們將不去管這個問題。

We run internal stress test every single year.

我們每年都會進行內部壓力測試。

It's a very rigorous process.

這是一個非常嚴格的過程。

We continue to feel very, very good about the ability of the capital base to withstand stress environments as we go from here.

我們繼續對資本基礎抵禦壓力環境的能力感到非常非常滿意。

Erika, as you saw 1.5 years ago, the quality of the deposit franchise, the absolute amount of insured to total, the backup facilities that Zach and our treasury team have put in place gives us just a unique position of confidence, combined with capital and stable credit, notwithstanding challenges at that moment.

Erika，正如你在一年半前看到的，存款特許經營的品質、保險的絕對金額與總額、Zach 和我們的財務團隊建立的備用設施，為我們帶來了獨特的信心，再加上資本和儘管此刻面臨挑戰，但信用仍然穩定。

We remain very confident in our credit as you've heard.

正如您所聽到的，我們對自己的信譽仍然非常有信心。

And we'll run the stress test and obviously review output carefully, and we're in a period where there's more geopolitical volatility, et cetera.

我們將進行壓力測試，並仔細審查產出，我們正處於地緣政治波動加劇的時期，等等。

But we think our capital and overall position is very strong.

但我們認為我們的資本和整體地位非常強大。

And when we look at capital plus reserves, we're top tier.

當我們查看資本加上儲備金時，我們是頂級的。

Brian Foran, Truist.

布萊恩·福蘭，Truist。

I was just trying to wrap my head around provisioning for and reserve build first release in '25.

我只是想弄清楚在 '25 年要做好哪些準備並預留構建第一個版本。

And I know under CECL, it's almost impossible to forecast and guide with any kind of precision.

我知道，根據 CECL，幾乎不可能進行任何精確的預測和指導。

But can you just talk about like where you're -- on the one hand, you got a reserve for loan growth, which is pretty good.

但是您能否談談您目前的情況——一方面，您獲得了貸款成長儲備，這相當不錯。

On the other hand, I didn't realize until just now, but I mean your criticized assets are now down 20% over nine months, and your reserve is pretty high versus peers, while your charge-offs are pretty low.

另一方面，我直到現在才意識到，但我的意思是，你受到批評的資產在九個月內下降了20%，而你的儲備金與同行相比相當高，而你的沖銷額相當低。

So kind of where do you see the puts and takes?

那麼您是如何看待投入和產出的呢？

I mean, should we think about dollars of reserve release in '25?

我的意思是，我們是否應該考慮在 25 年釋放多少美元的儲備？

Or is it more about provision that brings the ratio down, but it's a stable reserve in dollars?

或者更多的是透過撥備來降低該比率，但它是穩定的美元儲備？

Or just kind of -- any kind of central tendency that you would give us on whether we should be thinking about reserve release build or somewhere in between?

或者只是某種東西——您能給我們任何一種集中趨勢，即我們是否應該考慮儲備釋放建設還是介於兩者之間？

Yeah.

是的。

Brian, great question.

布萊恩，這個問題問得好。

This is Zach.

這是札克。

I'll take that.

我接受。

If you think about our reserve, I'll take a kind of step back and frame this strategically, and then I'll zoom in a little bit more tactical and answer some of the nuance of your question.

如果你考慮我們的儲備，我會退後一步，從戰略上構建這個問題，然後我會從戰術上放大一點，回答你問題的一些細微差別。

But just strategically, the goal for us is to always maintain a very rigorous and robust reserve really, as Steve just noted a second ago, not only protection against credit scenarios, but also an embedded form of capital.

但從策略上講，我們的目標是始終保持非常嚴格和強勁的儲備，正如史蒂夫剛才所說，不僅要防範信貸危機，還要保持一種嵌入式資本形式。

So we feel really good about where the reserve has been.

因此，我們對保護區的現況感到非常滿意。

If you look across the arc of time, when we -- at CECL day one, our credit reserve was 1.70%.

如果回顧歷史，當我們在 CECL 成立的第一天，我們的信用儲備為 1.70%。

In the worst period of COVID, that has risen to about 2.3%, if my memory serves me, in the early part of 2020.

如果我沒記錯的話，在新冠疫情最嚴重的時期，即 2020 年初，這一比例已上升至約 2.3%。

When much of the industry pretty rapidly reduced those reserves in 2021, we also reduced them somewhat, but nowhere near at the same pace because we knew that the economic environment was still somewhat unsettled and had a lot to play out as ultimately came to pass.

當大部分產業在 2021 年迅速削減這些儲備時，我們也有所削減，但速度遠不及前者，因為我們知道經濟環境仍然有些不穩定，最終還有很多事情要解決。

And so put us in a really strong position.

這讓我們處於非常有利的地位。

With that being said, we always expected that as the economic uncertainties that have really been out there for the last couple of years, will there be a soft landing?

話雖如此，我們一直預計，由於過去幾年確實存在的經濟不確定性，是否會出現軟著陸？

Will there be a hard landing?

是否會出現硬著陸？

Will there be no landing at all?

會不會根本無法降落？

What will be the trajectory of the interest rate environment and even the political environment and uncertainty as those would evolve, there would be an opportunity if those resolve favorably as they ultimately end up doing to reduce reserves.

利率環境、政治環境和不確定性的軌跡將會如何發展？ 如果這些問題得到有利解決，那麼最終將會減少儲備，這將是一個機會。

And also fundamentally to watch the performance of the book, which has been really, really good.

而且從根本上來說，我們要觀察這本書的表現，它的銷售量確實非常好。

And so what you've seen, for example, in the last four quarters is a gradual and modest release of reserve ratio, even as we've actually maintained dollars or increased dollars as the loan growth -- as the loan portfolio grew.

因此，例如，在過去四個季度中，您可以看到，儘管我們實際上保持了美元餘額，或者隨著貸款增長（隨著貸款組合的增長）而增加了美元餘額，但準備金率仍在逐步、適度地釋放。

So where we stand sit today, 1.88% is obviously higher than that CECL day one, 1.70%.

因此，我們今天所處的狀況是，1.88% 顯然高於 CECL 第一天的 1.70%。

Presuming that the economy continues to perform well, but the outlook continue to be solid.

假設經濟持續表現良好，但前景持續穩固。

And particularly given the low growth we expect to see, it is not improbable to see that ACL coverage ratio as a percent continue to go down even if the dollars might be flat to higher, given loan growth.

特別是考慮到我們預期的低成長率，考慮到貸款成長，即使美元可能持平或上升，ACL 覆蓋率百分比繼續下降也並非不可能。

So that's sort of how I think about it strategically.

這就是我的戰略觀點。

To your point, we look at this quarter by quarter by quarter.

正如您所說，我們會逐季度審視這個問題。

It really is an extraordinarily rigorous analysis, and there's no predetermination of any of that.

這確實是一項極其嚴格的分析，並且沒有任何預先確定的結果。

We're going to see the world play out on each quarter.

我們將看到世界在每個季度的走勢。

But assuming that everything continues to play out as we're talking about, I would assume that over time, there will be further reduction in the ACL coverage ratio, and we'll continue to drive loan growth higher to the dollars may be more flat to growing, but the ratio would likely decline.

但假設一切繼續按照我們談論的方式進行，我認為隨著時間的推移，ACL 覆蓋率將進一步降低，我們將繼續推動貸款成長，美元可能會更加平穩但該比例可能會下降。

That's awesome.

太棒了。

And if I could sneak one last one in.

如果我可以偷偷地再做最後一次。

I get a lot of questions about if M&A kind of eases, will Huntington be buyer?

我收到很多問題，如果併購變得容易，亨廷頓會成為買家嗎？

And I would say with the context, there's three or four other regional banks, five or six even that I cover, who I get the same question, so it's not unique to you.

我想說的是，我所關注的其他三、四家地區性銀行，甚至五、六家，也遇到了同樣的問題，所以這並不是你們獨有的。

But maybe you could just remind us where you are in terms of deal mode, attractive, unattractive right now on the priority list, not on the priority list.

但是也許您可以提醒我們您在交易模式方面的現狀，在優先列表中是否有吸引力，在優先列表中是否有吸引力。

Certainly appreciate you've shown the ability to grow organically and there's a lot on your plate there, but it is something that comes up a lot.

當然，我很欣賞你們展現的有機成長的能力，而且你們還有很多事情要做，但這是經常發生的事情。

Brian, Steve.

布萊恩、史蒂夫。

Great question.

好問題。

I was wondering when this might come up.

我想知道什麼時候會發生這種情況。

We've said over the years that we're very focused on driving top quartile organic growth.

多年來，我們一直表示，我們非常注重推動上四分位有機成長。

We've just made a significant number of investments.

我們剛剛進行了大量投資。

And in the core as well as what we talk about with these regional expansions and 8 verticals.

核心部分以及我們所討論的區域擴張和 8 個垂直領域。

So the core also is getting a fair amount of investment.

因此核心也獲得了相當多的投資。

And we're managing expense, Zach has shared this over time, reducing core expense on a continuous basis, through a number of actions and yet investing -- so there's a net expense growth.

我們正在管理費用，扎克一直在分享這一點，透過一系列行動和投資，持續減少核心費用 - 因此淨費用有所增長。

We really like this equation.

我們非常喜歡這個等式。

We believe we have significant core opportunity growth as well as with these new investments, and we're very focused on that.

我們相信，憑藉這些新投資，我們擁有顯著的核心成長機會，而且我們對此非常關注。

The business is performing exceptionally well.

該公司的業務表現異常出色。

And we've shown the ability over time to be able to do, I think in the last decade, two bolt-on depository acquisitions, and we're thrilled with Capstone, and they just had a record quarter.

隨著時間的推移，我們已經展示了我們的能力，我想在過去十年中，我們進行了兩次附加儲存庫收購，我們對 Capstone 感到非常興奮，他們剛剛創下了一個創紀錄的季度。

So there is a capacity to do things but the priority is organic growth.

因此，我們有能力做事，但首要任務是有機成長。

And as we've said before, we're highly disciplined in the selection.

正如我們之前所說，我們在選擇上非常嚴格。

TCF was a home run, nearly $500 million of expense reduction, big revenue generation synergies and some great businesses along with great colleagues.

TCF 取得了巨大的成功，削減了近 5 億美元的開支，產生了巨大的收入協同效應，並和優秀的同事開展了一些優秀的業務。

So if it makes sense, we would look, but our priority to be very clear, is organic growth.

因此，如果有意義的話，我們就會研究，但我們要明確的是，我們的首要任務是有機成長。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

That brings us to the end of the question-and-answer session.

問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Steinour for closing comments.

我想將發言權交還給施泰諾先生，請他作最後評論。

So in closing, our team just delivered exceptional results through the fourth quarter, highlighted by our leading loan and deposit growth and record fee income.

最後，我們的團隊在第四季度取得了卓越的業績，其中最突出的是領先的貸款和存款成長以及創紀錄的費用收入。

Credit trends, as you saw, remain stable.

正如您所看到的，信貸趨勢保持穩定。

We're very pleased with the overall risk management disciplines we have -- had in place now for years.

我們對多年來實施的整體風險管理紀律感到非常滿意。

Our management team is focused, we're executing our strategies that have been shared earlier, and we expect to sustain the growth momentum into '25 and beyond that we just illustrated.

我們的管理團隊非常專注，我們正在執行先前分享的策略，我們預計將保持我們剛剛描述的25年及以後的成長勢頭。

We look forward to sharing more details on the growth outlook during our upcoming Investor Day on February 6.

我們期待在 2 月 6 日即將到來的投資者日期間分享更多有關成長前景的細節。

We hope many of you will be able to join us in person for this event.

我們希望你們中的許多人能夠親自參加這項活動。

As a reminder, collectively, the Board executives and our colleagues are a top 10 shareholder, and we believe this strong alignment is important to sustaining value creation for all shareholders.

提醒一下，董事會高層和我們的同事們總體上是十大股東，我們相信這種強大的協調對於持續為所有股東創造價值至關重要。

And second, finally, thank you to all of my colleagues.

第二，最後，感謝我所有的同事。

Just you did an outstanding job, great quarter.

您做得非常出色，這一季度表現非常好。

So for those in the call, we're grateful for your interest in Huntington.

因此，對於通話中的人，我們非常感謝你們對亨廷頓的關注。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的參與。

This concludes today's event.

今天的活動到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

現在您可以斷開線路或退出網路直播，並享受剩餘的一天。