Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Huntington Bancshares Third Quarter Earnings Call.

大家好，歡迎來到 Huntington Bancshares 第三季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to your host, Tim Sedabres, Director of Investor Relations.

提醒一下，這次會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議轉交給你的主持人，投資者關係總監 Tim Sedabres。

Thank you, operator. Welcome, everyone, and good morning. Copies of the slides we will be referencing today can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, www.huntington.com. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. and a replay will be available starting about 1 hour from the close of the call.

謝謝你，運營商。歡迎大家，早上好。我們今天將要引用的幻燈片副本可以在我們網站 www.huntington.com 的投資者關係部分找到。提醒一下，此通話正在錄音中。通話結束後約 1 小時將提供重播。

Our presenters today are Steve Steinour, Chairman, President and CEO; and Zach Wasserman, Chief Financial Officer; Rich Pohle, Chief Credit Officer, will join us for the Q&A. As noted on Slide 2, today's discussion, including the Q&A portion, will contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on information and assumptions available at this time and are subject to changes, risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially.

我們今天的主持人是董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Steve Steinour；首席財務官 Zach Wasserman；首席信貸官 Rich Pohle 將加入我們的問答環節。如幻燈片 2 所述，今天的討論（包括問答部分）將包含前瞻性陳述。此類陳述基於目前可用的信息和假設，可能會發生變化、風險和不確定性，這可能導致實際結果大不相同。

We assume no obligation to update such statements. For a complete discussion of risks and uncertainties, please refer to this slide and material filed with the SEC, including our most recent Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings. Let me now turn it over to Steve.

我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。有關風險和不確定性的完整討論，請參閱這張幻燈片和向美國證券交易委員會提交的材料，包括我們最近提交的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 表格。現在讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Tim. Good morning, and welcome. Thank you for joining the call today. We are extremely pleased to announce our third quarter results, which reflected adjusted net income of $575 million and represented another quarter of record earnings for the company. We continue to execute on our plan for 2022 and the business is performing very well despite macroeconomic uncertainties. We are seeing sustained demand from customers across the footprint, which is reflected in the robust pipelines and our growth trends. We are closely monitoring economic developments and continue to believe we are operating from a position of strength as we head into the fourth quarter and 2023.

謝謝，蒂姆。早上好，歡迎。感謝您今天加入電話會議。我們非常高興地宣布我們的第三季度業績，這反映了調整後的淨收入 5.75 億美元，代表了公司又一個創紀錄的季度收益。我們繼續執行我們的 2022 年計劃，儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但業務表現非常好。我們看到整個足跡中客戶的持續需求，這反映在強大的管道和我們的增長趨勢中。我們正在密切關注經濟發展，並繼續相信我們在進入第四季度和 2023 年時處於有利地位。

Now on to Slide 4. First, the performance in the third quarter was exceptional with our third consecutive quarter of record PPNR. Loan growth continued to be broad-based and combined with the benefit from higher interest rates, net interest income again expanded at a double-digit rate from the prior quarter and fee income also expanded sequentially. As a result of these factors, adjusted PPNR increased by 14% in the quarter.

現在轉到幻燈片 4。首先，第三季度的表現非常出色，我們連續第三個季度創下 PPNR 紀錄。貸款增長繼續廣泛，加之利率上升的好處，淨利息收入再次比上一季度增長兩位數，手續費收入也環比增長。由於這些因素，本季度調整後的 PPNR 增長了 14%。

This performance was driven by execution of our revenue-producing initiatives and reflected our continued disciplined expense management. Second, we delivered another quarter of sequential growth in average deposits driven by commercial. Third, we were pleased to drive double-digit annualized loan growth again this quarter. With this robust loan momentum and continued pipeline strength, we are optimizing asset growth at the margin to maximize the return profile as we enter the fourth quarter.

這一業績是由我們創收計劃的執行推動的，並反映了我們持續嚴格的費用管理。其次，我們在商業推動下實現了平均存款的又一個季度連續增長。第三，我們很高興本季度再次推動兩位數的年化貸款增長。憑藉這種強勁的貸款勢頭和持續的管道實力，我們正在優化邊際資產增長，以在我們進入第四季度時最大限度地提高回報率。

Fourth, we are increasing our revenue and profitability guidance to incorporate the recent rate curve outlook. Zach will provide you with more details on that later. Finally, we are positioned very well for potential economic uncertainty with balance sheet strength, including higher capital levels and a reserve profile that is near the top of the peer group.

第四，我們正在增加我們的收入和盈利能力指導，以納入最近的利率曲線前景。 Zach 稍後將為您提供更多詳細信息。最後，我們憑藉資產負債表的實力，包括更高的資本水平和接近同行最高水平的儲備狀況，為潛在的經濟不確定性做好了充分準備。

Additionally, our profitability and return on capital outlook is expected to continue to support further building capital ratios. This places Huntington in a position of strength with an outlook that will continue to be guided by our disciplined approach to customer selection and our aggregate moderate to low risk appetite through the cycle.

此外，我們的盈利能力和資本回報率前景預計將繼續支持進一步建立資本比率。這使 Huntington 處於有利地位，其前景將繼續以我們嚴格的客戶選擇方法和我們在整個週期中的總體中低風險偏好為指導。

On Slide 5, let me share more details on our third quarter performance. As I mentioned earlier, we reported record net income, which reflects our earnings power and ability to generate sustained top-tier returns. We have positioned the company to benefit from higher interest rates with our asset sensitivity, and we continue to grow our fee income businesses. This level of robust revenue supports our continued investment in key strategic initiatives, which will sustain growth. Importantly, we remain committed to our disciplined expense management and guided by our commitment to positive operating leverage.

在幻燈片 5 上，讓我分享有關我們第三季度業績的更多細節。正如我之前提到的，我們報告了創紀錄的淨收入，這反映了我們的盈利能力和產生持續頂級回報的能力。我們已將公司定位為以我們的資產敏感性從更高的利率中受益，並且我們將繼續發展我們的費用收入業務。這種強勁的收入水平支持我們對關鍵戰略計劃的持續投資，這將維持增長。重要的是，我們仍然致力於嚴格的費用管理，並以我們對積極經營槓桿的承諾為指導。

Finally, as we previously delivered on the TCF integration program and cost savings, we remain focused on driving the incremental revenue opportunities from the acquisition.

最後，正如我們之前交付的 TCF 整合計劃和成本節約，我們仍然專注於推動收購帶來的增量收入機會。

Let me provide a few updates on our progress to date. We've added over 60 revenue-producing colleagues in Minnesota and Colorado to support wealth management, business banking, middle market and specialty banking. The commercial teams in the Twin Cities in Denver are continuing to gain traction, adding new customers and building pipelines. In addition to the expanding middle market teams, we are seeing accelerated loan growth in some of our specialty areas such as health care and asset-based lending, where we have recently closed a handful of sizable new relationships in Colorado as a function of our expertise and local presence. We are also driving increased productivity from the acquired branches where we have grown primary banking relationships nearly every month since conversion. We believe this demonstrates relationship deepening and a positive reception to the Huntington product offerings.

讓我提供一些我們迄今為止取得的進展的最新情況。我們在明尼蘇達州和科羅拉多州增加了 60 多名創收同事，以支持財富管理、商業銀行業務、中間市場和專業銀行業務。丹佛雙子城的商業團隊繼續獲得牽引力，增加了新客戶並建立了管道。除了不斷擴大的中間市場團隊外，我們還看到一些專業領域的貸款增長加速，例如醫療保健和基於資產的貸款，我們最近憑藉我們的專業知識在科羅拉多州關閉了一些相當大的新關係和當地的存在。自轉換以來，我們幾乎每個月都在收購的分支機構中推動提高生產力，我們在這些分支機構中幾乎每個月都在發展主要銀行業務關係。我們相信，這表明關係在加深，並且對亨廷頓產品的接受度很高。

Our business banking expansion in Minnesota and Colorado is also showing substantial momentum.

我們在明尼蘇達州和科羅拉多州的商業銀行業務擴張也顯示出強勁勢頭。

We're pleased to have already achieved the top 3 ranking or better for SBA lending, which were start-ups in both markets. The launch of Wealth Management in the Twin Cities continues to track better than our initial projections. The team has been fully built out, and we are pleased with the caliber of talent we were able to add in this market. While it's still early, the team is already contributing to relationship growth. Building pipelines reflect a significant customer opportunity even against a difficult market backdrop.

我們很高興 SBA 貸款已經達到前 3 名或更好的排名，這兩個市場都是初創企業。在雙子城推出的財富管理繼續好於我們最初的預測。該團隊已經全面組建，我們對我們能夠在這個市場上增加的人才水平感到滿意。雖然現在還早，但團隊已經在為關係的發展做出貢獻。即使在困難的市場背景下，建設管道也反映出重要的客戶機會。

Based on early successes we are seeing in the Twin Cities, we've expanded the wealth management business to Denver with key hires added during the third quarter. In our Asset Finance business, which includes equipment finance and distribution finance, which was formerly known as inventory finance, our teams continue to capitalize on the opportunities to harness the combined scale to better serve our customers. The business is significantly benefiting from that scale driving increased momentum in client acquisition and deepening of existing relationships.

基於我們在雙子城看到的早期成功，我們已將財富管理業務擴展到丹佛，並在第三季度增加了主要雇員。在我們的資產融資業務中，包括設備融資和分銷融資（以前稱為庫存融資），我們的團隊繼續利用機會利用合併規模更好地為我們的客戶服務。該業務顯著受益於這種規模，推動了客戶獲取和深化現有關係的動力增加。

We are now the fifth largest bank-owned equipment finance platform in the U.S., an increase from #7 only a year ago. These initiatives are ongoing, and we expect them to be a significant contributor to our growth over the longer term. We look forward to our Investor Day next month when we can spend more time on our overall business strategies as well as how these TCF revenue synergies factor into our consolidated outlook.

我們現在是美國第五大銀行擁有的設備融資平台，僅一年前排名第七。這些舉措正在進行中，我們預計它們將成為我們長期增長的重要貢獻者。我們期待下個月的投資者日，屆時我們可以將更多時間花在我們的整體業務戰略上，以及這些 TCF 收入協同效應如何影響我們的綜合前景。

Zach, over to you to provide more detail on our financial performance.

扎克，請您提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，史蒂夫，大家早上好。

Slide 7 provides highlights of our third quarter results. We reported GAAP and adjusted earnings per common share of $0.39. Return on tangible common equity, or ROTCE, came in at 21.9% for the quarter. Adjusted for notable items, ROTCE was 22.2%. As you saw on Slide 4, if you were to normalize TCE for the noncash accounting impact of other accumulated comprehensive income that arises from unrealized losses on our AFS securities portfolio, our ROTCE would have been 18.6%. We are pleased with the sustained momentum in our loan balances with total loans increasing by $3 billion. And excluding PPP, loans increasing by $3.3 billion.

幻燈片 7 提供了我們第三季度業績的亮點。我們報告了 GAAP 和調整後的每股普通股收益 0.39 美元。本季度有形普通股回報率 (ROTCE) 為 21.9%。針對值得注意的項目進行調整後，ROTCE 為 22.2%。正如您在幻燈片 4 中看到的那樣，如果您將 TCE 歸一化為我們 AFS 證券投資組合的未實現損失引起的其他累計綜合收益的非現金會計影響，我們的 ROTCE 將為 18.6%。我們對貸款餘額的持續增長勢頭感到滿意，貸款總額增加了 30 億美元。不包括 PPP，貸款增加了 33 億美元。

Total average deposits also increased $1 billion quarter-over-quarter and $3.7 billion year-over-year. This growth reflects the focus on primary bank relationships.

平均存款總額環比增長 10 億美元，同比增長 37 億美元。這種增長反映了對主要銀行關係的關注。

Pre-provision net revenue expanded sequentially by 17% from last quarter to $857 million. Credit quality remained strong with net charge-offs of 15 basis points and nonperforming assets declining to 53 basis points.

撥備前淨收入較上一季度環比增長 17% 至 8.57 億美元。信貸質量保持強勁，淨註銷 15 個基點，不良資產下降至 53 個基點。

Slide 8 shows our continued trajectory of PPNR expansion. We expect Q4 to be another strong quarter as we drive sustainable profitability and highlight the earnings power of the company, supported by organic growth initiatives and harnessing the benefits from the TCF acquisition.

幻燈片 8 顯示了我們 PPNR 擴展的持續軌跡。我們預計第四季度將是另一個強勁的季度，因為我們推動可持續盈利能力並突出公司的盈利能力，並得到有機增長計劃的支持並利用 TCF 收購帶來的好處。

We remain committed to our long track record of managing to positive operating leverage even as we continue to invest in the business.

即使我們繼續投資於該業務，我們仍然致力於保持我們管理積極運營槓桿的長期記錄。

Turning to Slide 9. Average loan balances increased 2.6% quarter-over-quarter totaling $117 billion. Excluding PPP, total loan balances increased $3.3 billion or 2.9% driven by both commercial and consumer loans. Within commercial, excluding PPP, average loans increased by $2 billion or 3.3% from the prior quarter. These results were supported by broad-based demand across our commercial businesses that is fueling robust new production. Line utilization remained relatively stable during the quarter on a core C&I basis, while we saw higher balances within distribution finance.

轉到幻燈片 9。平均貸款餘額環比增長 2.6%，總計 1170 億美元。不包括 PPP，在商業和消費貸款的推動下，總貸款餘額增加了 33 億美元或 2.9%。在商業貸款中，不包括 PPP，平均貸款比上一季度增加 20 億美元或 3.3%。這些結果得到了我們商業業務廣泛需求的支持，這些需求正在推動強勁的新生產。在核心 C&I 的基礎上，本季度的線路利用率保持相對穩定，而我們看到分銷融資的餘額更高。

Asset Finance, which includes equipment finance and distribution finance, contributed with balances higher by $1 billion. This included $300 million from distribution finance during the quarter. Commercial real estate balances also increased by $800 million. Commercial growth continued in our middle market, corporate and specialty banking segments, which collectively increased by $200 million during the quarter.

包括設備融資和分銷融資在內的資產融資貢獻了 10 億美元的餘額。這包括本季度來自分銷融資的 3 億美元。商業房地產餘額也增加了 8 億美元。我們的中間市場、企業和專業銀行業務繼續保持商業增長，本季度這些業務共增長了 2 億美元。

In Consumer, growth was led by residential mortgage, which increased by $1 billion, driven by slowing prepays and higher mix of on-balance sheet loan production. We also saw steady growth in our vehicle finance business.

在消費領域，增長是由住宅抵押貸款帶動的，增長了 10 億美元，這是由於預付款放緩和資產負債表內貸款生產的更高組合所推動的。我們的汽車金融業務也穩步增長。

Turning to Slide 10. We delivered average deposit growth of $1 billion. Deposit growth was led by commercial, up $1.4 billion. This expansion reflects our initiatives to drive primary bank relationships and new customer acquisition. We remain disciplined on deposit pricing, with our total cost of deposits coming in at 25 basis points for the third quarter.

轉到幻燈片 10。我們實現了 10 億美元的平均存款增長。存款增長由商業存款帶動，增加了 14 億美元。這種擴張反映了我們推動主要銀行關係和新客戶獲取的舉措。我們在存款定價方面保持紀律，我們第三季度的總存款成本為 25 個基點。

On Slide 11, we reported another quarter of sequential expansion of both net interest income and NIM. Core net interest income, excluding PPP and purchase accounting accretion, increased by $148 million or 12% to $1.392 billion. Net interest margin increased primarily driven by higher earning asset yields as a result of our asset sensitivity position.

在幻燈片 11 上，我們報告了另一個季度的淨利息收入和 NIM 連續擴張。核心淨利息收入（不包括 PPP 和採購會計增值）增加 1.48 億美元或 12% 至 13.92 億美元。淨息差增加的主要原因是我們的資產敏感性狀況導致盈利資產收益率上升。

Slide 12 highlights Huntington's deposit pricing discipline. Our low deposit rate relative to the third quarter of 2015 along with an improved funding profile gives us the flexibility to remain disciplined on deposit pricing. For the third quarter, we have started to see our average cost of deposits tick up as expected. We are remaining dynamic in this environment. We continue to manage the portfolio at a very granular and segmented level to ensure pricing discipline and with a focus on growing the primary bank relationships that bring lower-cost deposits.

幻燈片 12 強調了亨廷頓的存款定價原則。我們相對於 2015 年第三季度的低存款利率以及改善的資金狀況使我們能夠靈活地在存款定價方面保持紀律。對於第三季度，我們已經開始看到我們的平均存款成本如預期的那樣上升。我們在這種環境中保持活力。我們繼續在非常精細和細分的層面上管理投資組合，以確保定價紀律，並重點發展能夠帶來低成本存款的主要銀行關係。

Turning to Slide 13. We have been dynamically managing the balance sheet against the volatile rate backdrop. This quarter, we continued to execute on our hedging strategy to manage possible downside rate risks over the longer term while positioning ourselves to benefit from higher expected rates in the short term. In Q3, we increased our downside protection by executing a net $6.6 billion of received fixed swaps and $2 billion of callers.

轉到幻燈片 13。我們一直在波動的利率背景下動態管理資產負債表。本季度，我們繼續執行我們的對沖策略，以管理長期可能的下行利率風險，同時使我們自己在短期內受益於更高的預期利率。在第三季度，我們通過執行淨 66 億美元的固定掉期和 20 億美元的來電來增加下行保護。

We will be proactive in managing our downside risk while closely monitoring the rate outlook. Our expectation is to continue to deploy downside hedging strategies over the coming months. Additionally, we are actively managing the securities portfolio to both capture the benefit from higher rates over time and protect tangible capital. We maintained the proportion of securities in held to maturity, flat during the quarter and are reinvesting securities portfolio cash flows at rates above portfolio yields.

我們將積極管理下行風險，同時密切關注利率前景。我們的預期是在未來幾個月繼續部署下行對沖策略。此外，我們正在積極管理證券投資組合，以隨著時間的推移從更高的利率中獲益並保護有形資本。我們保持持有至到期證券的比例在本季度持平，並以高於投資組合收益率的利率對證券投資組合現金流進行再投資。

Moving to Slide 14. Noninterest income was $498 million, up $13 million from last quarter. We drove record activity within our capital markets businesses during the quarter, with revenues increasing $19 million which includes the full quarter impact from Capstone. Capstone's deal pipeline is healthy, and we expect it to contribute to additional growth in the fourth quarter. We remain pleased with the client engagement we are seeing in the wealth management business with positive net asset flows year-to-date. The momentum in net flows has been outweighed by market-based changes in assets under management, resulting in lower overall revenue. Deposit service charges were also lower by $12 million reflecting the expected $9 million impact from fair play enhancements that were implemented in July.

轉到幻燈片 14。非利息收入為 4.98 億美元，比上一季度增加 1300 萬美元。本季度我們在資本市場業務中推動了創紀錄的活動，收入增加了 1900 萬美元，其中包括來自 Capstone 的整個季度影響。 Capstone 的交易管道很健康，我們預計它將為第四季度的額外增長做出貢獻。我們對我們在財富管理業務中看到的客戶參與感到滿意，年初至今淨資產流量為正。淨流量的勢頭被管理資產的市場變化所抵消，導致整體收入下降。存款服務費也減少了 1200 萬美元，反映出 7 月份實施的公平競爭措施預計會產生 900 萬美元的影響。

Our outlook for the impact of these fee adjustments is unchanged from prior guidance. Our Fair Play philosophy is at the center of our strategy and is directly aligned with our mission of looking out for people. We believe the effect of Fair Play continues to be a compelling value proposition for our customers and supports sustainable growth for the bank. Fee revenues were also impacted this quarter by a decline in mortgage banking driven by a lower return on our MSR asset and lower saleable spreads.

我們對這些費用調整的影響的展望與之前的指導沒有變化。我們的公平競爭理念是我們戰略的核心，與我們以人為本的使命直接一致。我們相信，公平競爭的影響對我們的客戶來說仍然是一個引人注目的價值主張，並支持銀行的可持續增長。本季度的費用收入也受到抵押銀行業務下降的影響，這是由於我們的 MSR 資產回報率較低和可銷售利差較低所致。

Moving on to Slide 15. Noninterest expense increased $35 million from the prior quarter.

轉到幻燈片 15。非利息費用比上一季度增加了 3500 萬美元。

Aligned to our prior guidance, core expenses, excluding notable items, increased $49 million to $1.043 billion. This increase was mainly driven by the full quarter impact from Capstone in [Tarana]. It also included additional compensation expenses related to the strong revenue and production we are seeing in 2022 and impacts from merit and day count. The underlying expense run rate remains very well controlled. Our efficiency ratio, which is an outcome of our revenue drivers and expense management activities came in at 54.4% on a reported basis and adjusted for notable items was 53.9% for the quarter. On an adjusted basis, this reflects a decrease of 210 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

與我們之前的指導一致，核心費用（不包括重要項目）增加了 4900 萬美元，達到 10.43 億美元。這一增長主要是由 [Tarana] 的 Capstone 的整個季度影響推動的。它還包括與我們在 2022 年看到的強勁收入和產量相關的額外補償費用，以及績效和天數的影響。基本費用運行率仍然得到很好的控制。我們的效率比率是我們的收入驅動因素和費用管理活動的結果，在報告的基礎上為 54.4%，並根據值得注意的項目調整後，本季度為 53.9%。在調整後的基礎上，這反映出環比下降 210 個基點。

Slide 16 recaps our capital position. Common equity Tier 1 ended the quarter at 9.3% within our targeted operating range of 9% to 10%. As we go forward, our capital priorities remain unchanged with our first priority to fund organic loan growth. With the robust return on equity we are generating from our core assets, we are deploying our incremental capital to fund organic growth and drive CET1 toward the middle of our target operating range by year-end. Our tangible common equity ratio, or TCE, declined to 5.3% as a result of AOCI marks on the securities portfolio. Recall, this temporarily reduces equity as value marks are taken and then accretes back over time. Importantly, this does not impact our regulatory capital ratios. Our TCE ratio, excluding the AOCI impact, increased 19 basis points to 7.2%. Finally, our dividend yield remains well above the median in our peer group at 4.5%.

幻燈片 16 回顧了我們的資本狀況。普通股 1 本季度結束時為 9.3%，處於我們 9% 至 10% 的目標運營範圍內。在我們前進的過程中，我們的資本優先事項保持不變，我們的首要任務是為有機貸款增長提供資金。憑藉我們從核心資產中獲得的強勁股本回報，我們正在部署增量資本為有機增長提供資金，並在年底前將 CET1 推向我們目標運營範圍的中間值。由於證券投資組合上的 AOCI 標記，我們的有形普通股權益比率 (TCE) 下降至 5.3%。回想一下，這會暫時減少資產價值，因為價值標記會被佔用，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸增加。重要的是，這不會影響我們的監管資本比率。我們的 TCE 比率（不包括 AOCI 影響）增加了 19 個基點，達到 7.2%。最後，我們的股息收益率仍遠高於同行 4.5% 的中值。

On Slide 17, credit quality continues to perform very well. As mentioned, net charge-offs were 15 basis points for the quarter. This was higher than last quarter by 12 basis points and down 5 basis points from the prior year. Our consumer and commercial portfolios continue to demonstrate stability and credit quality. Nonperforming assets declined from the previous quarter and have reduced for 5 consecutive quarters.

在幻燈片 17 中，信用質量繼續表現良好。如前所述，本季度淨註銷為 15 個基點。這比上一季度高 12 個基點，比去年同期下降 5 個基點。我們的消費者和商業投資組合繼續表現出穩定性和信用質量。不良資產環比下降，已連續5個季度下降。

Criticized loans have reduced both from the prior quarter and prior year. Allowance for credit losses was up 2 basis points to 1.89% of total loans, reflecting a conservative reserve posture given the heightened economic uncertainty even as our internal portfolio metrics show stability.

受到批評的貸款比上一季度和上一年都有所減少。信貸損失準備金上升 2 個基點，達到貸款總額的 1.89%，這反映出在經濟不確定性加劇的情況下，即使我們的內部投資組合指標顯示穩定，我們仍採取保守的準備金態度。

Turning to Slide 18. Let me update our latest forecast for Q4. Our guidance assumes the consensus economic outlook through year-end and incorporates the rate curve as of the end of September. Our loan growth guidance remains unchanged at high single-digit growth rate on a year-over-year basis. We are currently tracking toward the higher end of this range. As a result of balance sheet growth and the rate curve outlook, we are again revising guidance higher for net interest income. We now expect core net interest income on a dollar basis, excluding PPP and purchase accounting accretion to be up in the high 20s to low 30s percentage growth rate for the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis.

轉到幻燈片 18。讓我更新我們對第四季度的最新預測。我們的指導假設了到年底的共識經濟前景，並納入了截至 9 月底的利率曲線。我們的貸款增長指引保持不變，同比保持高個位數增長率。我們目前正在追踪該範圍的高端。由於資產負債表增長和利率曲線前景，我們再次上調淨利息收入的指引。我們現在預計以美元為基礎的核心淨利息收入（不包括 PPP 和採購會計增值）在第四季度同比增長率將達到 20 到 30 的高百分比。

In fee income, we now expect it to be down low single digits for the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis. This guidance is reduced from a prior level. We continue to see encouraging trends in core strategic growth areas within fees namely our capital markets, wealth and advisory and payments businesses and the prior trends we have been seeing in other major fee lines, including mortgage, are within expected levels.

在費用收入方面，我們現在預計第四季度同比下降個位數。該指南比以前的水平有所減少。我們繼續看到收費核心戰略增長領域的令人鼓舞的趨勢，即我們的資本市場、財富和諮詢以及支付業務，以及我們在其他主要收費項目（包括抵押貸款）中看到的先前趨勢都在預期水平內。

The change in our guidance is related to the decision to hold on sheet, the guaranteed portion of our SBA loan production. Market sale premiums for those assets have reduced and it is now more advantageous for us to hold that production on sheet in Q4 as opposed to selling. We will forgo an acceleration of fees this quarter, but benefit from higher spread income out into 2023 and beyond. We believe this is a good economic return, but will cause fee recognition in Q4 to be lower than prior expectations.

我們指引的變化與保留表的決定有關，這是我們 SBA 貸款生產的保證部分。這些資產的市場銷售溢價已經降低，現在對我們來說，在第四季度將生產保持在表上比出售更有利。我們將在本季度放棄加速收費，但會受益於 2023 年及以後更高的利差收入。我們認為這是一個良好的經濟回報，但將導致第四季度的費用確認低於此前預期。

On expenses, our expectation is for core expenses to be up low single digits in the fourth quarter compared to the prior quarter. We continue to maintain tight control of underlying core expenses while also seeing some impacts from compensation driven by the strong performance and profitability we are seeing in our 2022 results. Given the higher earnings, we now expect our tax rate to be approximately 19%.

在支出方面，我們預計第四季度的核心支出與上一季度相比將增長低個位數。我們繼續嚴格控制基本核心費用，同時也看到了我們在 2022 年業績中看到的強勁業績和盈利能力所帶來的一些影響。鑑於更高的收益，我們現在預計我們的稅率約為 19%。

Finally, before we move to Q&A, I'd like to end with a few key points. As Steve mentioned earlier, our business is performing exceptionally well right now with solid momentum in the underlying drivers and expanding profitability. We also continue to see strength in our customer trends, where they appear to be managing through the environment well and with solid credit performance.

最後，在我們進入問答環節之前，我想以幾個要點作為結束。正如史蒂夫之前提到的，我們的業務目前表現異常出色，潛在驅動力強勁，盈利能力不斷擴大。我們還繼續看到我們的客戶趨勢的優勢，他們似乎在很好地管理環境並具有穩健的信用表現。

Notwithstanding these clear positives, we are mindful of the heightened uncertainty and risks in the environment. We are closely monitoring the impacts from persistently high inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical instability and market volatility. The cone of uncertainty around the near-term economic environment has widened and the probability of a recession is increasing. A bedrock part of the way we manage our business is to be dynamic to ensure we have game plans ready and are positioned to act to manage through a multitude of scenarios while sustaining top-tier performance.

儘管有這些明顯的積極因素，但我們注意到環境中的不確定性和風險增加。我們正在密切關注持續高通脹、利率上升、地緣政治不穩定和市場波動的影響。圍繞近期經濟環境的不確定性範圍擴大，經濟衰退的可能性正在增加。我們管理業務的方式的基石部分是保持動態，以確保我們準備好遊戲計劃，並準備好採取行動管理多種情況，同時保持頂級績效。

And as always, we are guided by our moderate to low risk appetite through the cycle. We are operating from a position of strength, and we are confident in our ability to successfully manage a range of economic environments. We're looking forward to hosting many of you at our upcoming Investor Day on Thursday, November 10, in New York City and via webcast. We are excited to share more about our strategic growth objectives and our targets to continue to drive top performance and value creation over the years to come.

與往常一樣，我們在整個週期中以中低風險偏好為指導。我們的經營實力雄厚，我們對成功管理一系列經濟環境的能力充滿信心。我們期待著在即將於 11 月 10 日星期四在紐約市舉行的投資者日上通過網絡直播接待你們中的許多人。我們很高興分享更多關於我們的戰略增長目標和我們在未來幾年繼續推動最佳業績和價值創造的目標。

With that, we will conclude our prepared remarks and move to Q&A. Tim, over to you.

至此，我們將結束準備好的發言並進入問答環節。蒂姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Zach. Operator, we will now take questions. We ask that as a courtesy to your peers, each person ask only one question and one related follow-up. And then if that person has additional questions, he or she can add themselves back into the queue. Thank you.

謝謝，扎克。接線員，我們現在開始提問。出於對同行的禮貌，我們要求每個人只問一個問題和一個相關的跟進。然後，如果該人還有其他問題，他或她可以將自己重新加入隊列。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Thanks for all the time this morning. What I wanted to just dig into is how we should be thinking about momentum into '23 from a loan growth perspective. You've got accelerating growth there, and you've got some NIM benefits that are coming from the mix shift. And I just wanted to understand the dynamic as we should be thinking about loan growth versus peak NIM given in particular the hedges that you're adding.

感謝今天早上的所有時間。我想深入探討的是，我們應該如何從貸款增長的角度考慮進入 23 世紀的勢頭。你在那裡加速增長，並且你從混合轉變中獲得了一些 NIM 好處。我只是想了解動態，因為我們應該考慮貸款增長與峰值 NIM，特別是考慮到您正在添加的對沖。

Sure. Great question. Thank you. This is Zach. I'll take that. I think in terms of loan growth, we continue to see quite a bit of momentum as we discussed in the prepared remarks, even as we're taking opportunities here in the fourth quarter to optimize where we're driving that incremental production for higher capital returns. And so expect to see continued momentum into the fourth quarter and that will continue into 2023. Notwithstanding the economic uncertainty, we continue to see demand from our clients and pipelines that even as they're pulling through are refilling -- and so that indicates continued momentum out into 2023 and beyond. And I think as we drive that, we'll also benefit from higher asset yields to the point of your question, and that will support expanding NIM here into the fourth quarter in the near term.

當然。很好的問題。謝謝你。這是紮克。我會接受的。我認為就貸款增長而言，正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，我們繼續看到相當大的勢頭，即使我們在第四季度在這裡抓住機會優化我們推動增量生產以獲得更高資本的地方回報。因此，預計第四季度將繼續保持這種勢頭，並將持續到 2023 年。儘管經濟存在不確定性，但我們繼續看到來自客戶和管道的需求，即使他們正在通過，也在重新填充——這表明持續進入 2023 年及以後的勢頭。而且我認為，在我們推動這一點的同時，我們還將從更高的資產收益率中受益，達到你的問題，這將支持在短期內將 NIM 擴大到第四季度。

And the hedge impact, can you just talk through how we should be thinking about that as we go -- migrate through the next 4 to 8 quarters?

以及對沖影響，您能否談談我們應該如何思考這個問題——在接下來的 4 到 8 個季度中遷移？

Sure. As it relates to hedging, we -- sort of taking a step back, we purposely took a series of actions in 2021 as we discussed to increase the asset sensitivity of the business and to benefit from higher rates and that really bore through over the course of the last several quarters. Just in Q2 and Q3 of this year, 55 basis points of total core NIM expansion and there's more opportunity ahead.

當然。由於涉及對沖，我們 - 有點退後一步，我們在討論時故意在 2021 年採取了一系列行動，以提高企業的資產敏感性並從更高的利率中受益，並且在整個過程中真正貫徹過去幾個季度。就在今年第二季度和第三季度，核心 NIM 總擴張了 55 個基點，未來還有更多機會。

The strategy that we're working through is really based on history, where if you look at the long-term history around rate cycles, typically medium- to long-term rates begin to fall right at the peak of the Fed hiking cycle. And so even as we're continuing to benefit from our asset sensitivity over the course of the early part of this year, we have been adding incrementally to the downside hedge protection portfolio so as to protect against potential downside rate scenarios in '23, '24, '25 and beyond.

我們正在製定的策略實際上是基於歷史的，如果你看看圍繞利率週期的長期歷史，通常中長期利率會在美聯儲加息週期的高峰期開始下降。因此，儘管我們在今年年初繼續受益於我們的資產敏感性，但我們一直在逐步增加下行對沖保護組合，以防止 23 年潛在的下行利率情景， 24、25 歲及以後。

At this point, we've completed around 60% of that total potential capacity for hedging, which based on what we've done so far, would protect around to 35% to 45% of NIM in down ramp scenarios out into those years that I mentioned. From here, I expect to stay asset sensitive, and that will, based on our expectations, drive additional NIM expansion into Q4. Even as we're continuing likely to continue to add to that hedge portfolio here over the next over the coming months, staying dynamic, walk through of interest rates but continuing to protect against that downside. So the net of those things should support continued loan growth, as I said, and help to protect and maintain really strong levels of NIM as we go forward.

在這一點上，我們已經完成了大約 60% 的總潛在對沖能力，根據我們迄今為止所做的，這將在那些年的下坡情景中保護大約 35% 到 45% 的 NIM我提到。從這裡開始，我希望保持資產敏感性，並且根據我們的預期，這將推動 NIM 進一步擴張到第四季度。即使在接下來的幾個月裡，我們可能會繼續增加對沖投資組合，保持動態，通過利率，但繼續防止這種下行。因此，正如我所說，這些東西的淨額應該支持持續的貸款增長，並有助於在我們前進的過程中保護和維持真正強勁的 NIM 水平。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler。

So Zach, appreciate the comments on NII into the fourth quarter. So the guidance indeed looks like another step-up that the growth rate will moderate as one might expect. Once we are, sort of, done with the Fed's tightening cycle? And maybe if you can just comment, or give your thoughts around the ability to sustain positive NII momentum after that's all finished. It sounds like certainly the volume side sounds pretty optimistic, but we would just be curious to hear your thoughts on the puts and takes.

所以扎克，感謝對 NII 進入第四季度的評論。因此，該指引確實看起來像是又一次升級，增長率將如人們預期的那樣放緩。一旦我們完成了美聯儲的緊縮週期？也許你可以發表評論，或者就在這一切完成後保持積極的 NII 勢頭的能力發表你的想法。聽起來成交量方面聽起來確實很樂觀，但我們很想听聽您對看跌期權的看法。

Yes. Yes, it's a great question. And I think that the model will be that sustained growth rate in loans, coupled with the rise in the near term and then stable NIM out into the future to really drive sustained continued growth in NII on a dollar basis. The trajectory around NIM in 2023 is very much a function of what happens with the economy, clearly and where the rate curve is trending.

是的。是的，這是一個很好的問題。而且我認為該模型將是貸款的持續增長率，加上近期的上升，然後在未來穩定 NIM，以真正推動以美元為基礎的 NII 的持續持續增長。 2023 年 NIM 的軌跡在很大程度上取決於經濟情況，顯然以及利率曲線的趨勢。

So it's -- I won't give you a clear guidance at this point. We'll talk more about that as we engage in future sessions, but our expectation is that 2023 will look quite good from a NIM perspective and that the volume growth will really support sustained continued growth in NII.

所以它 - 我現在不會給你明確的指導。我們將在未來的會議中更多地討論這一點，但我們的預期是，從 NIM 的角度來看，2023 年看起來會相當不錯，而且數量增長將真正支持 NII 的持續增長。

Okay. Perfect. And then if I could switch gears to the expense side for a moment, the cost base maybe a little higher than I would have expected into the fourth quarter. Are the compensation pressures, will those sort of -- I mean, are those related to just the strong earnings performance for this year? Will those -- that base that we've got in the fourth quarter continue into next year as well. In other words, there's some of the transitory versus ongoing?

好的。完美的。然後，如果我可以暫時將齒輪轉向費用方面，成本基礎可能會比我對第四季度的預期高一點。薪酬壓力是否會——我的意思是，這些壓力是否與今年強勁的盈利表現有關？那些 - 我們在第四季度獲得的基礎是否也會延續到明年。換句話說，有一些暫時的還是持續的？

Yes. It's a good question. Really, that -- the portion of expenses in the third quarter that we're calling out is compensation related or really are, in fact, related to the exceptionally strong levels of production and revenue and ultimately profitability we're seeing in 2022. And our baseline posture for expense management at this point is to be keeping the core underlying growth expenses very well controlled and at a low level.

是的。這是個好問題。真的，我們提到的第三季度支出部分與薪酬相關，或者實際上與我們在 2022 年看到的異常強勁的生產和收入水平以及最終盈利能力相關。而且目前，我們對費用管理的基線態勢是將核心基礎增長費用控制在較低水平。

The model, as we've talked about, quite a bit over time is for us to self-fund investments in our strategic initiatives, execution on the TCF revenue synergies and our continued technology development program by driving efficiencies in the core operating expense base of the company through scale, process, automation, et cetera. An indication of that is we're continuing to optimize our branch network. We just announced a week or so ago, another 31 branch closures that will be implemented in the early part of next year, and that's just sort of how we'll drive that efficiency to continue to keep expenses growing at a low level and of course, drive positive operating leverage as we go forward. So that's the run rate that we see as we get out into 2023. And of course, we'll provide more clear guidance as we get closer to the beginning of next year.

正如我們所討論的那樣，隨著時間的推移，我們通過提高核心運營費用基礎的效率，為我們的戰略計劃、TCF 收入協同效應的執行以及我們持續的技術開發計劃提供自籌資金的模型公司通過規模、流程、自動化等。這表明我們正在繼續優化我們的分支網絡。我們剛剛在大約一周前宣布，將在明年年初實施另外 31 家分支機構的關閉，這就是我們將如何提高效率以繼續保持支出在低水平增長，當然，在我們前進的過程中推動積極的經營槓桿。這就是我們進入 2023 年時看到的運行率。當然，隨著我們接近明年年初，我們將提供更明確的指導。

The next question is from the line of Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I want to start on the deposit side. So in the quarter, you grew average loans by $3 billion but deposits by $1 billion, and we saw a mix shift out of noninterest-bearing into brokered that -- what do you see as a risk of noninterest-bearing outflows, right? Talk about the funding strategy? And where do you see the mix evolving to?

我想從存款方面開始。因此，在本季度，平均貸款增加了 30 億美元，但存款增加了 10 億美元，我們看到了從無息到中介的混合轉變——你認為無息資金外流的風險是什麼，對嗎？談談資金策略？您認為混合演化到哪裡？

Yes. It's a really good question, and it's obviously a key area of considerable focus. We really like the results we're seeing on the deposit side in Q3 and solid execution of our strategy of driving toward primary bank relationships and operating accounts, even as we're staying very dynamic and really managing interest expense and the trajectory on that exceptionally closely. What I expect into the fourth quarter is more of the same. So I expect to see deposits grow into the fourth quarter commercial led -- and even as, of course, beta and interest expense costs are beginning now to tick up as we go into the fourth quarter.

是的。這是一個非常好的問題，而且顯然是一個備受關注的關鍵領域。我們真的很喜歡我們在第三季度在存款方面看到的結果，以及我們推動主要銀行關係和運營賬戶的戰略的穩健執行，即使我們保持非常活躍並真正管理利息支出以及異常的軌跡密切。我對第四季度的預期大致相同。因此，我希望看到存款在第四季度以商業為主導增長——當然，隨著我們進入第四季度，貝塔和利息費用成本現在開始上升。

Kind of taking a step back in terms of the overall funding mix to the point of your question. As we see it, we're starting this cycle and beginning into the early stages of it from a really solid position relative to cycles. The loan-to-deposit ratio is relatively low. Noncustomer sources of funding are also relatively low. And that leaves us in a good position to leverage diversified funding sources to fund what we've got.

就您提出的問題而言，在整體資金組合方面有點退步。正如我們所看到的，我們正在開始這個週期，並從相對於週期的真正穩固位置開始進入它的早期階段。貸存比相對較低。非客戶資金來源也相對較低。這使我們處於有利地位，可以利用多元化的資金來源為我們現有的資金提供資金。

Of course, deposits are the core and that's why we're pleased that they're growing. But we do have the opportunity to leverage short-term and long-term other sources of funding, which we'll do in a diversified way to balance the funding sources. And to be frank, to put good tension in the system to really support our disciplined approach to pricing and deposit growth over time. And so that's the model that we'll use. And I think as we go out into the future, we'll see that balance of funding.

當然，存款是核心，這就是為什麼我們對它們的增長感到高興。但我們確實有機會利用短期和長期的其他資金來源，我們將以多元化的方式來平衡資金來源。坦率地說，要在系統中施加良好的壓力，以真正支持我們隨著時間的推移對定價和存款增長採取嚴格的方法。這就是我們將使用的模型。而且我認為，隨著我們走向未來，我們將看到資金平衡。

That's helpful. And then to follow up. So based on the ranges that you're giving for the updated fourth quarter guidance, we can get to a scenario where NIM is flat or even down a little bit in the quarter -- fourth quarter. Could you frame for us how much NIM expansion you're thinking about for 4Q? And was your answer to Scott's question that you think NIM could hold flattish next year? Is that the base case?

這很有幫助。然後跟進。因此，根據您為更新的第四季度指南提供的範圍，我們可以得出 NIM 在第四季度持平甚至略有下降的情況。你能為我們描述一下你在考慮第四季度的 NIM 擴張嗎？您對 Scott 的問題的回答是您認為 NIM 明年可能持平嗎？那是基本情況嗎？

Yes. So I do expect to see NIM expansion into the fourth quarter. It won't be at the same rate that we've seen for the last couple of quarters, but I do think we'll see that continue to expand into the fourth quarter. You know, as you go into 2023, what happens kind of over the longer term out into the back half of '23 is really going to be a function of where we see the yield curve going and the economy, as I mentioned. And so you could see stability, you could see some downdraft. We'll see.

是的。所以我確實希望看到 NIM 擴張到第四季度。它不會以我們在過去幾個季度看到的相同速度，但我確實認為我們會看到它繼續擴大到第四季度。你知道，當你進入 2023 年時，從長遠來看，到 23 年下半年發生的事情實際上將取決於我們看到的收益率曲線和經濟的走向，正如我提到的那樣。所以你可以看到穩定性，你可以看到一些下降趨勢。走著瞧。

I think it's going to be a function of those drivers. With that being said, our focus, as I said before, is really on growing net interest income on a dollar basis. And I think the loan growth we're bringing through will help to sustain and support that over time.

我認為這將是這些驅動程序的功能。話雖如此，正如我之前所說，我們的重點實際上是以美元為基礎增加淨利息收入。而且我認為我們帶來的貸款增長將有助於隨著時間的推移維持和支持這一點。

Steve, that deserves some type of award for the way you've managed this balance sheet so far in this environment.

史蒂夫，到目前為止，您在這種環境下管理資產負債表的方式值得某種獎勵。

Thank you. It's a team effort, but appreciate the recognition.

謝謝你。這是團隊的努力，但感謝您的認可。

It's also early innings. Thank you.

這也是早局。謝謝你。

The next question is from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Jack, if I could follow up on the securities book. I was wondering if you could just help us understand how the paid fixed, receive variable swaps have helped the securities book, noting that your yields were up 50 basis points in that book this quarter on top of a prior 50 basis points. It seems like you're really getting that extra juice off the securities book.

傑克，如果我能跟進證券簿的話。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解支付固定、接收可變掉期如何幫助證券賬簿，並指出本季度您在該賬簿中的收益率在之前的 50 個基點之上上升了 50 個基點。看起來你真的從證券賬簿中獲得了額外的收益。

So can you kind of just help us understand like what's -- how long does that help you for on that swap side? And then what are you expecting just the overall size of the book to look like going forward?

那麼，您能否幫助我們了解一下——這對您在互換方面的幫助有多久？那麼你對這本書的整體大小有什麼期望呢？

Great question. In terms of size, we think the securities portfolio is rightsized with respect to the size of the balance sheet at this point. It's at about 24% of total assets, 26% of earning assets. And I expect it to stay proportionately the same -- at the same level for the foreseeable future. It's -- we're essentially managing it for our liquidity as a corporation at this point.

很好的問題。就規模而言，我們認為目前證券投資組合相對於資產負債表的規模是合適的。它約佔總資產的 24%，佔盈利資產的 26%。我預計它會按比例保持不變——在可預見的未來保持在同一水平。它是 - 我們現在基本上是為了我們作為一家公司的流動性而管理它。

In terms of yields, we did see a 50 basis point increase in portfolio yield into the third quarter, which was obviously very helpful for NIM. If I was to reconcile that for you, about 30 basis points of that 50 was from the hedge portfolio. Just under 10 basis points was from the impact of new money yields coming in during the quarter and the remainder of roughly 11 basis points was driven by a reduction in premium amortization.

在收益率方面，我們確實看到第三季度投資組合收益率增加了 50 個基點，這顯然對 NIM 非常有幫助。如果我要為你核對一下，那 50 個基點中大約有 30 個基點來自對沖投資組合。不到 10 個基點來自本季度新貨幣收益率的影響，其餘約 11 個基點是由保費攤銷減少推動的。

I expect that we'll continue to see rising yields out of the securities portfolio, partly as a function of that just continued reduction in premium amort, the hedge portfolio should continue to benefit us as well as the rate curve has ticked up just a bit incrementally from the end of the third quarter here and new money yields are pretty attractive relative to existing portfolio yield. To give you a sense, team is currently investing somewhere between 5.15% and 5.35% yields here as we enter October. So that will continue to be accretive to yield as we go forward.

我預計我們將繼續看到證券投資組合的收益率上升，部分原因是保費攤銷剛剛持續減少，對沖投資組合應該繼續使我們受益，而且利率曲線略有上升從第三季度末開始逐漸增加，新貨幣收益率相對於現有投資組合收益率非常有吸引力。為了給你一個感覺，隨著我們進入 10 月，團隊目前在這裡的投資收益率在 5.15% 到 5.35% 之間。因此，隨著我們前進，這將繼續增加收益。

Okay. And just to follow up, I'll ask on that, just [then], Zach, that 30 basis points help like -- how long is that helper in that part of the portfolio, the swaps on the securities book? How long does that carry forward for?

好的。只是為了跟進，我會問，就 [然後]，Zach，那 30 個基點的幫助就像 - 投資組合的那部分幫助，證券賬簿上的掉期有多長？這能延續多久？

It will continue to carry forward for a while here. The [tenor] of those are multiple years. And so we'll obviously have to see where the trajectory of the yield curve goes to the extent to they drive incremental benefit on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but they will protect us for some time to come to the extent that rates keep rising.

還會在這裡繼續發揚一段時間。這些[期限]是多年。因此，我們顯然必須看看收益率曲線的軌跡在多大程度上推動了季度到季度的增量收益，但它們會在一段時間內保護我們，以達到利率保持不變的程度上升。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Steve or Rich, can you talk a little bit about how you're balancing growth with -- I think, Steve, your comment was potential economic uncertainty. Your numbers look clean, but you did have a higher provision and you took your reserves up a little bit. So talk a little bit about credit, and Rich, maybe give us some help on what you're thinking on provision and reserves.

史蒂夫或里奇，你能談談你如何平衡增長與 - 我認為，史蒂夫，你的評論是潛在的經濟不確定性。你的數字看起來很乾淨，但你確實有更高的準備金，你的儲備金也增加了一點。所以談談信貸，里奇，也許可以就你對準備金和準備金的看法給我們一些幫助。

Let me start, and I'll turn it over to Rich, John. Thanks for the question. First of all, credit was really good again this quarter, and we feel very, very good about our position. We talked about it internally being a strong position that we're playing from and you'll hear us occasionally reference it externally as well. Balanced book, balanced portfolio, lot of discipline about aggregate moderate to low-risk appetite over many years. You've seen our credit metrics quarter-over-quarter on the consumer side, super prime. It's -- we're feeling -- obviously, we're feeling very good about it. Obviously, we're working it diligently. There's a lot of portfolio review that's very active portfolio management underway constantly, and the teams are doing a great job.

讓我開始，我會把它交給里奇，約翰。謝謝你的問題。首先，本季度的信用再次非常好，我們對自己的處境感覺非常非常好。我們在內部討論過它是我們正在玩的一個強大位置，你會聽到我們偶爾也會在外部引用它。平衡賬簿、平衡投資組合、多年來對總體中低風險偏好的大量紀律。你已經看到我們在消費者方面的季度信用指標，超級優質。這是 - 我們感覺 - 顯然，我們對此感覺非常好。顯然，我們正在努力工作。有很多投資組合審查，這是非常積極的投資組合管理，不斷進行，團隊做得很好。

So now that I've stole most of Rich's thunder, let me turn it over to Rich.

所以現在我已經搶走了 Rich 的大部分風頭，讓我把它交給 Rich。

I was going to say there's not a whole lot to add there, but as Steve mentioned, I mean, the credit looks really good. We've got 8 basis points of charge-offs for the year in (inaudible) and NPAs are both trending down for several quarters. With respect to the increase in the reserve coverage, I mean, the allowance went up by $64 million in the quarter, and most of that was coming from loan growth.

我想說那裡沒有太多要補充的，但正如史蒂夫所說，我的意思是，功勞看起來非常好。我們今年（聽不清）有 8 個基點的沖銷，NPA 在幾個季度都呈下降趨勢。關於準備金覆蓋率的增加，我的意思是，本季度準備金增加了 6400 萬美元，其中大部分來自貸款增長。

So we've taken this consistently a prudent approach since to our ACL since COVID hit in 2020. And we think that we've got a good position of strength right now heading into a possible downturn. As it relates to how we're managing the growth versus where we are in the cycle, I mean, we are fundamentally laser focused on client selection, and we underwrite our clients at all times to how do they perform through the cycle. And clearly, with one coming up potentially, we're paying heightened attention to that. But we're always sensitizing for higher rates for stress with inflation and other variables as we underwrite our credits, and that's not changing. So we feel that we can grow the balance sheet and grow it prudently, and we'll move forward from there. So we feel good about where we are.

因此，自從 2020 年 COVID 襲擊以來，我們一直對我們的 ACL 採取這種謹慎的做法。我們認為，我們現在有一個很好的優勢地位，可以應對可能出現的經濟低迷。因為它關係到我們如何管理增長與我們在周期中所處的位置，我的意思是，我們從根本上專注於客戶選擇，並且我們始終向客戶保證他們在整個週期中的表現。很明顯，隨著潛在的出現，我們正在高度關注這一點。但是，在我們承銷我們的信貸時，我們總是對通貨膨脹和其他變量的壓力更高的利率敏感，而且這一點沒有改變。所以我們覺得我們可以擴大資產負債表並審慎地擴大它，我們將從那裡向前邁進。所以我們對自己的處境感覺良好。

Just as a follow-up on client selection of your comment. Can you talk a little bit about the consumer as well? I mean, your numbers are incredibly clean, but are you expecting some deterioration there over time or just give us your overall thoughts there, Rich.

就像客戶選擇您的評論的後續行動一樣。你能談談消費者嗎？我的意思是，你的數字非常乾淨，但你是否預計隨著時間的推移會出現一些惡化，或者只是告訴我們你在那裡的總體想法，Rich。

Yes. We are expecting it. And really, when you talk about deterioration, I mean, you are coming off a very low base, right? With all the stimulus money that came into the system in '20 and into 2021. The levels of delinquencies and the level of charge-offs are really unsustainable. So what we're looking at is more of a return to normal. We're closely watching the early-stage delinquencies and they're exactly where we thought they would be. I mean, they are up off of those historic lows. But if you go back and you look at where delinquencies would have been in 2018 and 2019, we're not at those more normal levels.

是的。我們期待著它。真的，當你談到惡化時，我的意思是，你的基數很低，對吧？隨著 20 世紀和 2021 年進入系統的所有刺激資金。拖欠水平和沖銷水平確實是不可持續的。所以我們看到的更多是恢復正常。我們正在密切關注早期的拖欠情況，它們正是我們認為的那樣。我的意思是，它們已經脫離了那些歷史低點。但如果你回頭看看 2018 年和 2019 年的拖欠情況，我們並沒有達到更正常的水平。

And with respect to charge-offs, we've had net recoveries in many of our consumer portfolios in the first, second and even into the third quarter. And we do expect over time that those are going to return to the norm. But right now, we feel very good about where the consumer book is positioned.

在沖銷方面，我們的許多消費者投資組合在第一、第二甚至第三季度都實現了淨復甦。我們確實希望隨著時間的推移，這些將恢復到常態。但現在，我們對消費者書籍的定位感覺非常好。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The next question is coming from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I guess following up on the last question first. Specifically on indirect auto. I mean we're seeing some pockets of, I guess, stress last normalization elsewhere. I think your mix is a lot different and just so much higher quality, you've been so consistent. Obviously, you had just like $3 million of losses. But specifically, Derek, can you talk about what you're seeing and if there's any changes that you're making either on the origination side? Or I guess, we're hearing about collections being tricky as well.

我想先跟進最後一個問題。特別是間接自動。我的意思是我們在其他地方看到了一些壓力正常化的地方。我認為你的組合有很大不同，而且質量更高，你一直如此一致。顯然，您損失了大約 300 萬美元。但具體來說，Derek，你能否談談你所看到的，以及你是否在原始方面做出了任何改變？或者我猜，我們也聽說過集合也很棘手。

Matt, it's Rich. I'll take that. So as we've been in this business for 75 years, and we've been through all sorts of cycles. And as you know, our model is one of focusing on prime and super prime customers. And one of the benefits that we've developed over time is the ability to put in highly predictive custom scorecards with response to the [fall] expectations. So we're underwriting to not getting the car back in the first place. And we are mindful of the fact that used car prices are coming down, and we build that into our decisioning.

馬特，這是豐富的。我會接受的。因此，我們從事這項業務已有 75 年，我們經歷了各種週期。如您所知，我們的模型是一種專注於優質和超級優質客戶的模型。隨著時間的推移，我們開發的好處之一是能夠放入具有高度預測性的自定義記分卡，以響應 [下降] 期望。所以我們保證一開始就不會把車拿回來。我們注意到二手車價格正在下降這一事實，並將其納入我們的決策中。

If you look on Slide 37 of the earnings deck, you'll see that while we're maintaining really strong FICOs and custom scorecard ratings, our LTVs have come down steadily since the third quarter of '20. And so we've got a very disciplined and sophisticated underwriting approach and the fact that we're, I think, prudently bringing the LTVs down over time speaks well to how that folk is going to perform. It's a core competency of the bank. We are -- expect the charge-offs to return to normal. But for right now, we're enjoying what we think is a really strong core competency that we bring to that business.

如果您查看收益平台的幻燈片 37，您會發現雖然我們保持非常強勁的 FICO 和自定義記分卡評級，但我們的 LTV 自 20 世紀第三季度以來穩步下降。因此，我們有一個非常有紀律和復雜的承銷方法，我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們謹慎地降低 LTV，這很好地說明了人們的表現。這是銀行的核心競爭力。我們 - 期望沖銷恢復正常。但就目前而言，我們正在享受我們認為是我們為該業務帶來的真正強大的核心競爭力。

Even the normal -- that is on a comparative basis to the industry is just excellent. So we underwrite for roughly 20, 25 bps of loss and obviously, we're not seeing that now.

即使是正常情況——與行業相比也是如此。所以我們承保了大約 20、25 個基點的損失，顯然，我們現在還沒有看到。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just separately, you care to give us maybe a 30-second kind of preview of the Investor Day in terms of what you're looking to accomplish. You talked about strategic update and financial targets, but anything you want to give a full preview of.

好的。這很有幫助。然後單獨地，你想根據你想要完成的事情給我們大概 30 秒的投資者日預覽。你談到了戰略更新和財務目標，但你想全面預覽任何內容。

Sure. This is Zach. I'll take that one. Thanks for serving up that question. We are really excited about the opportunity to engage on November 10, Thursday in New York City and via webcast for Investor Day. We've got quite a robust agenda planned. We'll go through each of our major business lines, each of our key functions like credit and risk management and human resources, and we'll share kind of an overview, not only of the strategy generally. But also what our updated long-term expectations are for financial performance and kind of the road map for us to get there. So it's going to be a robust discussion. And I think will serve as a great launching off point for a series of additional conversations thereafter. So really excited about it and look forward to 3 weeks from now.

當然。這是紮克。我會拿那個。感謝您提出這個問題。我們很高興有機會在 11 月 10 日星期四在紐約市通過網絡直播參與投資者日。我們已經計劃了一個非常強大的議程。我們將介紹我們的每一個主要業務線，我們的每一個關鍵職能，如信貸和風險管理以及人力資源，我們將分享一種概述，而不僅僅是一般的戰略。還有我們更新後的長期預期對財務業績和我們實現目標的路線圖。所以這將是一場激烈的討論。我認為這將成為此後一系列額外對話的一個很好的起點。對此真的很興奮，並期待著 3 週後的生活。

We do have a question coming from the line of Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們確實有來自 Erika Najarian 與瑞銀的問題。

My first question was for Steve. And Steve, I was laughing at your response to Steven Alexopoulos' comment, that was classic. Your efficiency ratio medium-term target is 56% and obviously, with the help of your -- the business strengths and rates, you went down to 54% in the quarter. And I'm wondering if the medium-term range still holds in that you'll look to continue to reinvest back in the business, especially as rates are helping the denominator side of that equation.

我的第一個問題是問史蒂夫的。史蒂夫，我在嘲笑你對史蒂文亞歷克索普洛斯評論的回應，那是經典的。你的效率比中期目標是 56%，顯然，在你的業務優勢和利率的幫助下，你在本季度下降到了 54%。而且我想知道中期範圍是否仍然存在，因為您會繼續對業務進行再投資，尤其是當利率正在幫助該等式的分母端時。

Erika, if we could defer that question to Investor Day, I would be very pleased, but I also very much appreciate the inquiry.

埃里卡，如果我們能把這個問題推遲到投資者日，我會很高興，但我也非常感謝你的詢問。

Got it. I tried.

知道了。我試過了。

I can see that. You certainly did.

我理解了。你當然做到了。

Second question is a follow-up for Zach. I'm going to ask Steve's question another way. I think it was -- I saw it as an accomplishment that your period end deposits grew and you kept your cost of deposits to 25 bps, well below where I think everybody was expecting you to go. So as we think about your outlook for good loan growth and some NII growth next year, how should we think about deposit growth from here?

第二個問題是 Zach 的後續問題。我將以另一種方式問史蒂夫的問題。我認為這是 - 我認為您的期末存款增長並且您將存款成本保持在 25 個基點，遠低於我認為每個人都期望您去的水平。因此，當我們考慮明年良好的貸款增長和一些 NII 增長的前景時，我們應該如何從這裡考慮存款增長？

I fully understand your message that you never got to search deposits in the first place. But how should we think about core deposit growth outside of mix shift. And additionally, how you're thinking about the terminal deposit beta from here?

我完全理解您的意思，即您從一開始就不必搜索存款。但是我們應該如何考慮混合轉移之外的核心存款增長。此外，您如何看待這裡的終端存款測試版？

Sure. It's a great question, Erika, and let me see if I can expand on some of that. So in terms of deposits, our expectation is to grow core deposits into the fourth quarter, as I mentioned earlier, commercial led. Commercial just continues to perform very well. I think we're really benefiting from all of the investments that we've made to expand the strength of the team and expertise and capabilities, not to mention the boost around TCF synergies, which are really contributing. And so that will be the core driver into Q4. What's interesting on the consumer side, I do expect to see some continued downdraft in consumer core into the fourth quarter, but actually pretty encouraging underlying trends. What's happening in consumer is a bit of a tale of 2 cities where the underlying trend in customer acquisition, household acquisition and primary bank relationship growth and the deepening efforts that we've got both in our off-line channels and increasingly now on the digital channels are really working. And we're seeing nice expanding deposit gathering from those activities.

當然。這是一個很好的問題，Erika，讓我看看我是否可以擴展其中的一些內容。因此，就存款而言，我們的預期是核心存款將增長到第四季度，正如我之前提到的，商業主導。商業只是繼續表現非常好。我認為我們真的從我們為擴大團隊實力、專業知識和能力所做的所有投資中受益，更不用說圍繞 TCF 協同效應的提升，這確實做出了貢獻。因此，這將成為第四季度的核心驅動力。在消費者方面有趣的是，我確實預計到第四季度消費者核心會繼續下降，但實際上非常令人鼓舞的潛在趨勢。消費者正在發生的事情有點像兩個城市的故事，在這些城市中，客戶獲取、家庭獲取和主要銀行關係增長的潛在趨勢以及我們在離線渠道和現在越來越多的數字渠道上所做的深化努力渠道確實有效。我們從這些活動中看到了很好的擴大存款收集。

What's offsetting that is what we -- the well-documented phenomenon of the elevated level of savings and so-called surge deposits from the COVID era are running down. And the net of those 2 things has been a modest reduction over the last several quarters. I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter before that surge balance, a downdraft sort of start to wane and the underlying growth that we're seeing in that core activity within consumer start to come to the fore. And so we're encouraged about the longer-term trends in consumer. And as I look out over the 2023 period, I expect to see deposit growth. We'll continue to see commercial probably growing faster, but consumer are contributing with net positive growth.

抵消這一點的是我們——有據可查的儲蓄水平升高和 COVID 時代所謂的激增存款現象正在減少。在過去的幾個季度中，這兩件事的淨額略有減少。我預計這種情況將持續到第四季度，然後才會出現激增平衡，下降趨勢開始減弱，我們在消費者核心活動中看到的潛在增長開始脫穎而出。因此，我們對消費者的長期趨勢感到鼓舞。展望 2023 年期間，我預計存款會增長。我們將繼續看到商業可能增長更快，但消費者正在為淨正增長做出貢獻。

As it relates to beta, we'll see. I think we're pretty sanguine on this point that we've seen low deposit beta thus far, and I think that's been shared very much across the industry and a number of the peers have seen that through the third quarter. The market is becoming more active, as I said earlier, in the back half of Q3 and continuing now into Q4. So I expect to see beta rising in the fourth quarter. It's kind of as we expected, so not overly different than what we've been planning for all along, but that is trending. Where it ultimately goes, in my opinion, is a bit theoretical. Everything continues to track generally to our plan thus far. But where we're focused is on our strategy, drive the primary bank and operating account relationships, stay very rigorous in terms of the detailed management and very dynamic in watching the market and ultimately ensure that we can keep supporting our customers and growing those relationships, which so far has been working, and that's what we'll keep doing.

由於它與測試版有關，我們拭目以待。我認為我們在這一點上非常樂觀，到目前為止我們已經看到低存款貝塔值，而且我認為整個行業已經分享了很多，並且許多同行已經看到了第三季度。正如我之前所說，市場在第三季度後半段變得更加活躍，現在一直持續到第四季度。所以我預計第四季度貝塔值會上升。這有點像我們預期的那樣，與我們一直以來的計劃並沒有太大不同，但這是趨勢。在我看來，它最終走向何方有點理論化。到目前為止，一切都繼續總體上按照我們的計劃進行。但我們關注的是我們的戰略，推動主要銀行和運營賬戶關係，在細節管理方面保持非常嚴格，在觀察市場時非常活躍，並最終確保我們能夠繼續支持我們的客戶並發展這些關係，到目前為止一直有效，這就是我們將繼續做的事情。

At this time, I would like to turn the floor over to Mr. Steinour for closing remarks.

現在，我想請 Steinour 先生髮表閉幕詞。

Well, thank you for joining us today. This was a tremendous quarter for all of us at Huntington. We're very pleased to see our second straight quarter of record net income and third straight quarter of record PPNR. We believe we're well positioned to manage through the current uncertain economic outlook. We remain committed to and we're confident of our ability to continue to create value for our shareholders. And just as a reminder, the Board executives and our colleagues, we're a top 10 shareholder collectively, reflecting our strong alignment with shareholders. So thank you for your support and interest today, and we hope we'll see many of you in 3 weeks. Have a great day.

好吧，謝謝你今天加入我們。對於亨廷頓的所有人來說，這是一個了不起的季度。我們很高興看到我們連續第二個季度創紀錄的淨收入和連續第三個季度創紀錄的 PPNR。我們相信我們有能力應對當前不確定的經濟前景。我們仍然致力於並相信我們有能力繼續為股東創造價值。提醒一下，董事會高管和我們的同事們，我們是前 10 大股東，這反映了我們與股東的高度一致。因此，感謝您今天的支持和關注，我們希望 3 週後能見到你們中的許多人。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。