Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is David, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this call may be recorded.

早安.我叫大衛，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加固特異 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Ryan Reed, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Ryan Reed。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Mark Stewart, CEO and President; and Christina Zamarro, Executive Vice President and CFO. A couple of notes before we get started. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements that involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to materially differ from those forward-looking statements. We'll also refer to non-GAAP financial measures.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加我們2025年第二季的收益電話會議。今天與我一起的有執行長兼總裁馬克·史都華 (Mark Stewart) 和執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜·紮馬羅 (Christina Zamarro)。在我們開始之前有幾點說明。在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。

For more information on the most significant factors that could affect our future results and for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation and our filings with the SEC. All our earnings materials can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com, where a replay of this call will also be available.

有關可能影響我們未來業績的最重要因素以及非公認會計準則指標對帳的更多信息，請參閱今天的演示文稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們的所有收益資料都可以在我們的網站 investor.goodyear.com 上找到，該網站還提供本次電話會議的重播。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我就把電話交給馬克。

Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Let me start by saying our second quarter results were below our expectations and reflect an unprecedented level of industry disruption given changes in global trade that negatively impacted our consumer and commercial businesses globally.

謝謝你，瑞安。大家早安，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。首先我要說的是，我們的第二季業績低於預期，反映出由於全球貿易變化對我們的全球消費者和商業業務產生了負面影響，行業混亂達到了前所未有的程度。

At the same time, the midterm outlook is also turbulent given what we're seeing in terms of industry environment. I'll talk about what we're seeing in detail before we move on to the financials and to your questions. While the near term has proved to be significantly more challenging, I am confident in our ability to regain our momentum once the market stabilizes and we work through some of the transitory headwinds we're seeing today.

同時，從我們所看到的產業環境來看，中期前景也充滿動盪。在我們討論財務狀況和回答您的問題之前，我將詳細談談我們所看到的情況。儘管事實證明短期內我們將面臨更大的挑戰，但我相信，一旦市場穩定下來，我們就能克服目前遇到的一些暫時的不利因素，重新獲得發展動能。

Within the current environment, our focus continues to be on controlling that which we can control. We have executed consistently on Goodyear Forward, where P&L benefits continue to be achieved ahead of schedule. We've increased pricing in the US and Canada in response to the tariffs. in consumer OE in the US as well as in Europe. We've increased the vitality or the refreshing of our product portfolio. We grew in the greater than 18-inch market, and we're on track with our new 18-inch plus SKU developments and launch timing.

在當前環境下，我們的重點仍然是控制我們能夠控制的事情。我們始終如一地執行 Goodyear Forward 計劃，並持續提前實現損益。為了因應關稅，我們提高了美國和加拿大的定價。在美國和歐洲的消費者原廠設備中也是如此。我們增加了產品組合的活力或更新。我們在 18 吋以上的市場中取得了成長，我們的新 18 吋以上 SKU 開發和發佈時間也正在按計劃進行。

We've expanded our margins in Asia Pacific. Our SG&A, or SAG costs are down. And finally, we're on pace to deliver a strong balance sheet by the end of the year supported by the three divestitures we committed in Goodyear Forward. Net-net, we're paving the way for our organization to deliver increased value and focus on becoming number one in tires and service. Market factors, the things that we don't control. They certainly had an impact during the quarter, and I'll share more about that shortly.

我們擴大了亞太地區的利潤率。我們的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）或銷售代理費用（SAG）下降了。最後，在固特異前進公司承諾的三項資產剝離的支持下，我們將在年底前提供強勁的資產負債表。總而言之，我們正在為我們的組織提供更高的價值並致力於成為輪胎和服務領域的第一個鋪平道路。市場因素，是我們無法控制的事。它們確實在本季度產生了影響，我很快就會分享更多相關資訊。

As we look ahead, once this turbulence around the prebuy in the first half of the year settles down, we are well positioned with our US footprint with our products and with our distribution, and we're also looking at raw material benefits beginning in quarter four.

展望未來，一旦上半年預購的動盪平息下來，我們的產品和分銷管道將在美國佔據有利地位，我們也期待從第四季度開始獲得原材料效益。

If we turn to the industry environment in the second quarter, several factors limited our ability to mitigate rising costs. First, the market continued to feel the effects of OEs navigating new complexities of the global supply chain. Specifically, we saw the consumer OE industry contract more than we anticipated in both the Americas and in Europe.

如果我們回顧第二季的產業環境，有幾個因素限制了我們緩解成本上升的能力。首先，市場持續感受到原始設備製造商應對全球供應鏈新複雜性的影響。具體來說，我們發現美洲和歐洲的消費者原廠設備產業的萎縮幅度超過了我們的預期。

In addition, we continue to see weakness in our Asia Pacific OEMs volume given our own premium mix of customer and fitments. Consumer preferences in Asia Pacific, continued OEM price discounting and favorable government incentives in China are leading to a disproportionate amount of sales of opening price point vehicles, which is well below where we focus in our targeted segments of the Luxury and the SUV EV segment.

此外，考慮到我們自身的高端客戶和配件組合，我們繼續看到亞太地區原始設備製造商銷售疲軟。亞太地區的消費者偏好、持續的 OEM 價格折扣以及中國政府的優惠激勵措施，導致起始價位汽車的銷量不成比例，遠低於我們在豪華車和 SUV EV 細分市場中的目標銷量。

Having said that, even while our OE volume was weaker than expected, we continue to register significant OE shares in the US and Europe, which is a relative sign of strength, highlighting our industry-leading technology and service.

話雖如此，儘管我們的 OE 銷量低於預期，但我們在美國和歐洲的 OE 份額仍然很大，這是一個相對實力的標誌，凸顯了我們行業領先的技術和服務。

Moreover, we've recently seen increased demand from our OEs as they've sought to rebalance their tire supply with more focus on USMCA capacity. We believe we're in the early innings as it relates to this opportunity and see positive momentum. Second, the consumer replacement market was characterized by increased competition, particularly in the Americas and in EMEA, which impacted our volume. Despite new installed tariffs, the second quarter US nonmember growth in imports was actually higher than in the first quarter as dealers and distributors prioritize shelf space and liquidity to stockpile the imports.

此外，我們最近看到原始設備製造商的需求增加，因為他們試圖重新平衡輪胎供應，更加重視 USMCA 產能。我們相信，我們正處於與此機會相關的早期階段，並看到了積極的勢頭。其次，消費者替代市場競爭加劇，尤其是在美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，這影響了我們的銷售量。儘管實施了新的關稅，但由於經銷商和分銷商優先考慮貨架空間和流動性來儲存進口商品，第二季度美國非會員國的進口成長實際上高於第一季。

What's more, we've already seen some of this excess volume materialize in the US sellout market. As you all know, we've announced broad-based price increases in the US and Canada that became effective in the second quarter and remain intact today. It's clear that our relative positioning impacted our overall consumer replacement volume and the price mix although we did continue to record gains in the 18-inch and above rim sizes.

更重要的是，我們已經看到部分過剩產量出現在美國的銷售市場。眾所周知，我們已宣佈在美國和加拿大全面上調價格，該政策於第二季生效，並持續至今。很明顯，儘管我們的 18 吋及以上輪圈尺寸繼續保持增長，但我們的相對定位影響了我們的整體消費者更換量和價格組合。

Another contributing factor influencing our views on the US consumer replacement market is related to distribution. As many of you know, we made a strategic decision earlier in the quarter to rebalance our US distribution to ensure high levels of customer service and mitigate credit risk following the second bankruptcy of ATD. Other manufacturers have taken similar actions.

影響我們對美國消費者替代市場的看法的另一個因素與分銷有關。眾所周知，我們在本季早些時候做出了一項戰略決策，重新平衡我們的美國分銷，以確保高水準的客戶服務，並在 ATD 第二次破產後降低信用風險。其他製造商也採取了類似的行動。

As distributor relationships are important for reaching end-customer accounts, some manufacturers as well as distributors operating in the US market introduced new and meaningful incentives during the quarter.

由於分銷商關係對於接觸最終客戶至關重要，一些在美國市場運營的製造商和分銷商在本季度推出了新的、有意義的激勵措施。

These programs presumably shift retailers to new distribution networks. These actions serve to further increase competition in today's markets. There are two additional developments to highlight as we think about the outlook for our Consumer business.

這些計劃可能會將零售商轉移到新的分銷網絡。這些措施有助於進一步增加當今市場的競爭。當我們思考消費者業務的前景時，還有另外兩個發展值得強調。

First, North America consumer replacement margins steadily improved throughout the quarter as we implemented price and mix actions into the market. Second, US growth in nonmember imports started to ease recently, and we expect to see declines in the level of imports beginning as early as the third quarter.

首先，隨著我們在市場上實施價格和組合行動，北美消費者替代利潤率在整個季度穩步提高。第二，美國對非會員國的進口成長近期開始放緩，我們預計最早從第三季開始進口水準就會開始下降。

On a related note, the EU recently launched an investigation on imported tires from China. While we don't have any final second quarter data yet, we believe the announcement led to an increase in imports over the last several months as we have seen distributors prioritize liquidity and warehouse space for the imports.

據悉，歐盟近期對中國進口輪胎發起調查。雖然我們還沒有第二季的最終數據，但我們相信該公告導致過去幾個月進口量增加，因為我們看到分銷商優先考慮進口的流動性和倉庫空間。

Our EMEA business is well positioned and should tariffs ultimately be implemented in Europe. Finally, turning to our Commercial business, the truck tire market, which have been running at recessionary levels for the last couple of years, took another significant leg down during the second quarter, positioning us now at a point where we expect our full year volume and mix to register below COVID year levels.

如果關稅最終在歐洲實施，我們的 EMEA 業務將處於有利地位。最後，談到我們的商業業務，卡車輪胎市場在過去幾年一直處於衰退水平，在第二季度再次大幅下滑，我們預計全年銷售和產品組合將低於 COVID 年度水平。

As many of you know, the US OE industry fell nearly 30% on the back of uncertainty related to the implementation of the '27 EPA mandates. In addition, global replacement demand also contracted relative to our expectations as truck tire customers remain cautious about freight conditions and broader economic trends.

眾所周知，由於實施 27 項 EPA 指令相關的不確定性，美國原始設備產業下跌了近 30%。此外，由於卡車輪胎客戶對貨運狀況和更廣泛的經濟趨勢保持謹慎，全球替換需求也相對於我們的預期有所萎縮。

In spite of these dynamics, US nonmember imports increased over 30% in the quarter and European imports rose as well. So in summary, in the coming quarter, we expect market headwinds to persist as US dealers work through elevated levels of low-end import inventory and weak demand in the global commercial truck market. We're making the necessary internal changes to drive performance and control the working capital.

儘管存在這些動態，但本季美國非成員國的進口量仍增加了 30% 以上，歐洲的進口量也有所增加。總而言之，在接下來的一個季度，我們預計市場逆風將持續存在，因為美國經銷商需要處理大量低端進口庫存和全球商用卡車市場疲軟的需求。我們正在進行必要的內部變革，以提高績效並控制營運資金。

As we look at the second half, while global trade disruption is weighing on our full year outlook, I assure you our team is positioned to win with customers and consumers as the turbulence dissipates. It isn't a matter of if, but when, as our fundamentals are strong, and we have firmly positioned our business to deliver our targeted margin once the market conditions improve.

展望下半年，雖然全球貿易中斷正在影響我們的全年前景，但我向大家保證，隨著動盪的消散，我們的團隊已做好準備，贏得客戶和消費者的青睞。這不是是否會發生的問題，而是何時會發生的問題，因為我們的基本面強勁，而且我們已經堅定地定位我們的業務，一旦市場條件改善，我們就能實現目標利潤率。

And our organization isn't waiting passively for the upswing. We're continuing to develop new premium products to generate our own organic growth tailwinds. In May, we introduced the Eagle F1 Asymmetric six and in July, the Assurance MaxLife two in North America. In Europe, we've extended the lineup of our premium winter tire, the UltraGrip Performance three. We will increase its total offering to over 250 SKUs this year, making it our most extensive winter offering to date.

我們的組織並沒有消極地等待經濟復甦。我們正在繼續開發新的優質產品，以創造我們自己的有機成長順風。5 月份，我們在北美推出了 Eagle F1 Asymmetric six，7 月份，又推出了 Assurance MaxLife two。在歐洲，我們擴大了優質冬季輪胎 UltraGrip Performance three 的產品線。今年，我們將把其總供應量增加到 250 多個 SKU，使其成為迄今為止最廣泛的冬季供應量。

Additionally, within All-Season, we were recently awarded the top rating by Europe's largest auto association, ADAC for the Vector 4Seasons Gen-3 tire. These new product introductions and third-party reviews are crucial because ultimately, we expect the recent challenges we've experienced in our markets will give way to the opportunity. We continue to expect to realize benefits from trade policy changes over time as well as to capitalize on our organizational focus on winning in the premium segment of the marketplace.

此外，在全季輪胎領域，我們最近獲得了歐洲最大的汽車協會 ADAC 授予的 Vector 4Seasons Gen-3 輪胎最高評級。這些新產品的推出和第三方評論至關重要，因為最終，我們預計在市場上遇到的近期挑戰將轉化為機會。我們將繼續期望從貿易政策的長期變化中獲益，並利用我們組織對在高端市場中獲勝的關注。

Now I'll ask Christina to take you through the second quarter financials, and we'll move on to the Q&A.

現在我請克莉絲蒂娜向大家介紹第二季的財務狀況，然後我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Mark has shared important context for what impacted our second quarter relative to our expectations. Looking at the financials, about half of the miss in the quarter came in our Commercial business given materially weaker OEM replacement demand globally. The other half was driven by lower consumer OEM replacement volume.

謝謝大家，早安。馬克分享了影響我們第二季預期的重要背景資訊。從財務狀況來看，由於全球 OEM 替換需求大幅減弱，本季約有一半的虧損來自我們的商業業務。另一半則是因為消費者 OEM 更換量下降。

Second quarter sales were $4.5 billion, down 2% from last year, given lower volume and the sale of OTR, partly offset by increases in price-mix. Unit volume declined 5%, reflecting the impacts of global trade disruption on OE production, distributor and fleet buying patterns and consumer sell-out trends. Gross margin declined 360 basis points. SAG was lower by $39 million, consistent with results in Q1.

第二季銷售額為 45 億美元，較去年同期下降 2%，原因是銷量下降和 OTR 銷售下降，但價格組合上漲部分抵消了這一影響。單位銷售量下降了 5%，反映了全球貿易中斷對 OE 生產、分銷商和車隊購買模式以及消費者銷售趨勢的影響。毛利率下降了360個基點。SAG 下降了 3900 萬美元，與第一季的結果一致。

Segment operating income for the quarter was $159 million. Goodyear net income increased to $254 million, driven by a gain on the sale of the Dunlop brand. Our results were impacted by other significant items, including rationalization charges of $59 million. After adjusting for these items, our loss per share was $0.17.

本季分部營業收入為 1.59 億美元。固特異淨收入增加至 2.54 億美元，這得益於鄧祿普品牌出售收益。我們的業績受到其他重大項目的影響，包括 5,900 萬美元的合理化費用。調整這些項目後，我們的每股虧損為 0.17 美元。

Turning to the segment operating income walk on slide 10. The sale of the Off-the-Road business reduced earnings by $23 million during the second quarter. After this change in scope, our SOI declined $152 million versus last year. Lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of $51 million.

轉向第 10 張投影片上的分部營業收入。非公路用車業務的出售導致第二季收益減少 2,300 萬美元。在此次範圍變更後，我們的 SOI 與去年相比下降了 1.52 億美元。輪胎產量和工廠利用率的下降造成了 5,100 萬美元的損失。

Price mix was a benefit of $91 million, driven by our recent pricing actions in the US and Canada. Price mix came in $44 million lower than we guided on our first quarter call, driven by headwinds in commercial truck of about $30 million and lower mix in the Americas as US dealer and distributor demand was geared toward our lower price point products in advance of announced price increases. Raw material costs were a headwind of $174 million and Goodyear Forward contributed $195 million of benefit during the quarter.

價格組合帶來了 9,100 萬美元的收益，這得益於我們最近在美國和加拿大的定價行動。價格組合比我們在第一季電話會議上預測的低 4400 萬美元，原因是商用卡車面臨約 3000 萬美元的逆風，而且美洲的價格組合較低，因為在宣布漲價之前，美國經銷商和分銷商的需求集中在我們的低價產品上。原物料成本造成 1.74 億美元的不利影響，而 Goodyear Forward 在本季貢獻了 1.95 億美元的收益。

Inflation and other costs were a headwind of $127 million and other was a headwind of $18 million. The second quarter also included the nonrecurrence of 2024 net insurance recoveries of $63 million.

通貨膨脹和其他成本造成 1.27 億美元的不利影響，其他成本造成 1,800 萬美元的不利影響。第二季還包括 2024 年未發生的 6,300 萬美元淨保險賠償。

Turning to the cash flow and balance sheet on Slide 11. Our second quarter use of free cash flow was stable versus last year despite increases in working capital. Our free cash flow includes benefits of $191 million in the quarter and $376 million year-to-date from proceeds from the sale of OTR and Dunlop. This amount includes $86 million of inventory held for sale that will transfer at the end of the year and $290 million for long-term supply and transition agreements that we are amortizing into SOI over roughly 5.5 years.

前往投影片 11 上的現金流量和資產負債表。儘管營運資本增加，但第二季我們的自由現金流使用情況與去年同期相比保持穩定。我們的自由現金流包括本季的 1.91 億美元收益和年初至今的 3.76 億美元來自出售 OTR 和 Dunlop 的收益。該金額包括將於年底轉移的價值 8,600 萬美元的待售庫存，以及價值 2.9 億美元的長期供應和過渡協議，我們將在約 5.5 年內將其攤銷到 SOI 中。

Net debt declined over $600 million, which reflects the proceeds from asset sales this year, net of cash used for working capital and restructuring as part of Goodyear Forward over the last 12 months. We continue to expect to receive gross proceeds of $650 million from the sale of our Chemical business later this year.

淨債務減少了 6 億多美元，這反映了今年資產出售的收益，扣除了過去 12 個月作為 Goodyear Forward 計劃一部分用於營運資本和重組的現金。我們預計今年稍後出售化學業務將帶來 6.5 億美元的總收益。

Moving to the SBU results on Slide 13. Americas unit volume decreased 2.6%, driven by headwinds in consumer OE and replacement. While the US consumer replacement markets were up 5%, low-end imports continued to outperform and grew approximately 15% during the quarter, which was an all-time high following a record quarter in Q1.

轉到幻燈片 13 上的 SBU 結果。受消費者原廠設備和替換件市場不利因素影響，美洲地區銷售量下降 2.6%。雖然美國消費替代市場成長了 5%，但低端進口產品繼續表現出色，本季成長了約 15%，這是繼第一季創紀錄之後的歷史新高。

US industry sell-out is about flat year-to-date. In addition to the churn we're seeing in the Consumer business, Americas commercial OE volume declined 22%, where speculation surrounding changes to the implementation of 2027 EPA mandates negatively impacted demand.

今年迄今為止，美國產業的銷售量基本上持平。除了我們看到的消費者業務的流失之外，美洲商業 OE 銷量下降了 22%，圍繞 2027 年 EPA 強制實施變化的猜測對需求產生了負面影響。

At the same time, commercial nonmember imports grew 32% during the quarter. Americas SOI was $141 million or 5.3% of sales, a decrease of $100 million compared to last year, driven by higher costs net of Goodyear Forward benefits.

同時，非會員商業進口在本季成長了32%。美國 SOI 為 1.41 億美元，佔銷售額的 5.3%，與去年相比減少 1 億美元，原因是扣除固特異 Forward 福利後成本上升。

On slide 14, EMEA's second quarter unit volume decreased 2%, driven by declines in replacement volume, where we saw channel destocking in summer tires. This trend was driven by distributors prioritizing imports ahead of potential tariffs. In late May, the EU announced it had launched an investigation on Chinese passenger tire imports with potential for applicable rates to be between 41% and 104%.

在幻燈片 14 上，EMEA 的第二季度單位銷量下降了 2%，這是由於替換量下降所致，我們看到夏季輪胎的渠道庫存減少。這一趨勢是由分銷商優先考慮進口產品而非潛在關稅所推動的。5月下旬，歐盟宣布對中國進口乘用車輪胎發起調查，適用稅率可能介於41%至104%之間。

The investigation should be complete by the end of the first quarter next year, although the EU has begun to register the imports beginning in late July for potential retroactive tariffs. This change led our distribution channels in EMEA to prioritize deliveries of imports during the quarter, similar to the actions we saw in the US.

儘管歐盟已從 7 月底開始登記這些進口產品，以便可能徵收追溯關稅，但調查應於明年第一季末完成。這項變更導致我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的分銷管道在本季優先交付進口產品，這與我們在美國看到的做法類似。

On the other hand, EMEA's consumer OE volume grew 11% and registered share gains of about 2.5 points despite significant contraction in the industry. This growth helped to offset some of the weakness in the summer selling season.

另一方面，儘管該行業大幅萎縮，但 EMEA 地區的消費者原廠配套銷量仍增長了 11%，份額增長了約 2.5 個百分點。這一增長有助於抵消夏季銷售旺季的部分疲軟。

Like our experience in the Americas, we also saw significant weakness in Europe's Commercial business with truck registrations declining 15% across the EU. Fleet replacement demand was also extremely cautious given the impact of tariff uncertainty on the flow of cross-border logistics and steeper costs. Segment operating income in EMEA was a loss of $25 million, consistent with results in Q1.

就像我們在美洲的經歷一樣，我們也看到歐洲商業業務明顯疲軟，整個歐盟的卡車註冊量下降了 15%。鑑於關稅不確定性對跨境物流流動的影響以及成本上升，船隊更換需求也極為謹慎。歐洲、中東和非洲地區分部營業收入虧損 2,500 萬美元，與第一季業績一致。

Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 15. Second quarter unit volume decreased 16%, driven by replacement volume, reflecting our strategic decision to rationalize less profitable SKUS Additionally, replacement trends were impacted by weak demand in China. OE volume was also lower despite overall industry growth given our customer mix.

前往第 15 張投影片上的亞太地區。第二季單位銷售量下降 16%，主要是由於替換量下降，這反映了我們合理化利潤較低的 SKU 的策略決策。此外，替換趨勢受到中國需求疲軟的影響。儘管整個行業正在成長，但考慮到我們的客戶結構，OE 銷量也有所下降。

We expect that our China OE volume will improve over the course of the second half. Segment operating income was $43 million and 9.4% of sales. Excluding the sale of the OTR business, Asia Pacific's segment operating income was flat and SOI margin grew 150 basis points.

我們預計下半年我們的中國原廠設備銷售將會提高。分部營業收入為 4,300 萬美元，佔銷售額的 9.4%。不計出售 OTR 業務，亞太區分部營業收入持平，SOI 利潤率成長 150 個基點。

Turning to the outlook and as we consider the industry environment more broadly, we expect the themes that we saw in the second quarter to remain with us through the near term. In commercial truck, we are seeing a recalibration to changes in global trade. And based on what we know today, we would not expect a recovery for the Truck business until 2026.

展望前景，當我們更廣泛地考慮產業環境時，我們預計第二季看到的主題將在短期內繼續存在。在商用卡車領域，我們看到了全球貿易變化的重新調整。根據我們目前掌握的信息，我們預計卡車業務要到 2026 年才能復甦。

Our current demand forecast would take our full year commercial earnings about $135 million lower than our prior forecast and to the lowest absolute level we have on record. This decline represents about 650,000 to 700,000 units less than our prior forecast, reductions in price mix and higher inefficiencies in our factories given very low levels of utilization and the flattening variability of our cost curve.

根據我們目前的需求預測，全年商業收益將比我們先前的預測低約 1.35 億美元，並達到有史以來的最低絕對水準。這一下降意味著產量比我們先前的預測減少了約 650,000 至 700,000 台，價格組合減少，並且由於利用率非常低以及成本曲線趨於平緩，導致工廠效率低下。

In addition to impacts and lower truck tire volume, we also expect higher tariffs related to US supply coming from our truck tire joint venture in Vietnam and supply of US retread products, which are sourced from our Brazil operations. The near-term outlook for the Consumer business has also weakened since our first quarter conference call. We now expect global OE volume reductions beyond what we had accounted for in our prior forecast.

除了影響和卡車輪胎產量下降之外，我們還預計來自我們在越南的卡車輪胎合資企業的美國供應以及來自我們巴西業務的美國翻新輪胎產品的供應相關的關稅將提高。自從我們第一季電話會議以來，消費者業務的近期前景也變得疲軟。我們現在預計全球 OE 銷量的減少量將超出我們先前的預測。

More significantly, we expect consumer replacement volume to be challenging, driven by disruption in the US market. We also expect increased risk in EMEA with the announcement of the tariff investigation in the EU, creating risk as dealers and distributors may continue to allocate liquidity and shelf space for imports, which could soften our sell-in of winter tires. We expect to mitigate some of the higher costs we will incur as a result of lower production with proceeds from business interruption insurance related to the fire at our factory in Poland in late 2023.

更重要的是，我們預計，受美國市場混亂的影響，消費者的更換量將面臨挑戰。我們也預計，隨著歐盟宣布關稅調查，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的風險將會增加，因為經銷商和分銷商可能會繼續為進口產品分配流動性和貨架空間，從而可能削弱冬季輪胎的銷售。我們預計，2023 年底波蘭工廠發生火災所產生的業務中斷保險收益將用於緩解因產量下降而產生的部分較高成本。

At the same time, we'll continue to execute on Goodyear Forward to best position our costs for when the environment stabilizes. As we look at industry factors influencing our outlook, we expect that it will take longer for us to achieve our 2025 year-end margin and leverage objectives. While we continue to expect to exceed the original goals of Goodyear Forward, both in terms of cost savings and in gross proceeds from asset sales, the recent disruption related to tariffs and impacts on the global supply chain have overshadowed our success. We remain confident in our ability to recover and return to growth in earnings once this turbulence subsides.

同時，我們將繼續執行固特異前進計劃，以便在環境穩定時最佳地定位我們的成本。當我們審視影響我們前景的行業因素時，我們預計實現 2025 年底的利潤率和槓桿率目標將需要更長的時間。儘管我們仍然期望在成本節約和資產出售的總收益方面超越固特異前進計劃的最初目標，但最近與關稅相關的混亂以及對全球供應鏈的影響給我們的成功蒙上了陰影。一旦動盪平息，我們仍然有信心恢復並恢復獲利成長。

Turning to the third quarter. We are expecting volume that is more reflective of our first half experience with global volume down about 5%. In addition, we expect higher unabsorbed fixed costs of $50 million, driven by lower production in the second quarter. As we reduce inventories in line with our sales, we expect our unabsorbed fixed cost to increase in the fourth quarter. Price-mix is expected to be a benefit of approximately $100 million, driven by the benefit of our recent pricing actions and raw material index contracts with our OE and fleet customers.

轉向第三季。我們預計銷售量將更能反映我們上半年的經驗，全球銷售量下降了約 5%。此外，由於第二季產量下降，我們預計未吸收固定成本將增加 5,000 萬美元。由於我們根據銷售額減少庫存，我們預計第四季度未吸收的固定成本將會增加。預計價格組合將帶來約 1 億美元的收益，這得益於我們最近的定價行動以及與 OE 和車隊客戶簽訂的原材料指數合約的收益。

Raw material costs will increase approximately $50 million. At current spot and currency rates, Q4 would be a benefit of approximately $15 million. Goodyear Forward will drive benefits of approximately $180 million. Inflation, tariff and other costs are expected to be a headwind of approximately $180 million, reflecting higher costs given US tariff impacts and a global inflation rate of about 3%. This amount captures above-average increases in freight rates and transitory manufacturing costs associated with announced facility closures. We expect this amount to increase in the fourth quarter.

原料成本將增加約5000萬美元。以當前現貨匯率和貨幣匯率計算，第四季的收益約為 1500 萬美元。Goodyear Forward 將帶來約 1.8 億美元的收益。通貨膨脹、關稅和其他成本預計將造成約 1.8 億美元的不利影響，這反映出考慮到美國關稅的影響和約 3% 的全球通貨膨脹率，成本將增加。這筆金額反映了與宣布的設施關閉相關的運費和暫時製造成本的高於平均水平的增長。我們預計這一數字將在第四季度增加。

Based on rates in effect today, our annualized tariff costs are about $350 million, up from our prior estimate with increases in applicable rates in Brazil and Vietnam, both impacting our Commercial Truck business. Foreign exchange will be a benefit of $5 million. And finally, the nonrecurrence of insurance proceeds received last year is $17 million and the sale of OTR is $10 million.

根據目前有效的稅率，我們的年關稅成本約為 3.5 億美元，高於我們先前的估計，巴西和越南的適用稅率均有所提高，這對我們的商用卡車業務產生了影響。外匯將帶來500萬美元的收益。最後，去年收到的一次性保險收益為 1,700 萬美元，OTR 銷售額為 1,000 萬美元。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

好了，我們現在可以回答您的問題了。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的瑞安·布林克曼。

I'd like to start by asking around the surge in low-cost imports that you referenced across your key markets. I mean, firstly, outside the US, on your last call, you did mention your more balanced near-term view and considered the impact of tires originally destined for the US to be redirected to other markets.

首先我想問一下您提到的主要市場低成本進口商品激增的情況。我的意思是，首先，在美國以外，在您上次通話中，您確實提到了您更為平衡的短期觀點，並考慮了原本運往美國的輪胎轉向其他市場的影響。

So just curious if that was a more considerable headwind than you earlier expected? And then in the US, just given the 25% Section 232 automotive sectoral tariff in place for much of the quarter on consumer tires, I guess the 15% increase in non-US MTA imports is on the surface somewhat surprising. Maybe you could help us a little bit?

所以我只是好奇這是否比你之前預期的逆風更大？然後在美國，考慮到本季大部分時間對消費輪胎實施 25% 的 232 汽車行業關稅，我猜非美國 MTA 進口量增長 15% 從表面上看有些令人驚訝。也許您可以幫我們一點忙？

I recall you mentioning on your 1Q call on May 8, something about tariffs beginning to be collected on May 3, whereas I thought they were to go into effect on April 3, at least for non-USMCA compliant parts. And so maybe you can clarify that because if it was May 3, then that could explain the ability for there to be a prebuy. Was there a surge then in April and it's already subsided beginning in May?

我記得您在 5 月 8 日的第一季電話會議上提到，關稅將於 5 月 3 日開始徵收，而我認為關稅將於 4 月 3 日生效，至少對於不符合 USMCA 標準的零件而言。所以也許你可以澄清一下，因為如果是 5 月 3 日，那麼這就可以解釋預購的能力。那麼 4 月是否出現了激增，而從 5 月開始已經消退了？

And on commercial tires, which get the reciprocal rather than sectoral rate, I guess, did you see a prebuy there during the 90-day pause? And I know that pause only ended yesterday, but maybe like based on your conversations, do you expect that to be effectively over now?

對於商用輪胎，它們獲得的是互惠稅率而不是行業稅率，我想，您是否在 90 天的暫停期間看到了預購？我知道暫停昨天才結束，但也許根據你們的談話，你認為暫停現在已經有效結束了嗎？

Yes. Ryan, thanks for the questions. And I'll start on the first one, which was and ask around the guidance for the second quarter, where we had said we wanted to be balanced because we knew with tariffs in place in the US that, that might, in fact, send imports into other of our international markets. What, in fact, happened is that those -- the imports that were coming into the US still came in a big wave, and then we had a wave in Europe.

是的。Ryan，謝謝你的提問。我先從第一個問題開始，也就是詢問第二季的指導意見，我們曾表示，我們希望保持平衡，因為我們知道，由於美國實施關稅，這實際上可能會導致進口產品進入我們的其他國際市場。事實上，當時進入美國的進口商品仍然呈現巨幅湧入，然後歐洲也出現了一波進口浪潮。

And so instead of seeing US imports redirected to another market, we just had a surge across our key markets in especially the US and Europe. So I think that's the difference there. When it comes to the effective dates for Section 232 for tires, that was early May.

因此，我們並沒有看到美國進口轉向其他市場，而是看到了我們主要市場（尤其是美國和歐洲）的激增。所以我認為這就是區別所在。至於第 232 條輪胎法規的生效日期，那是在五月初。

And I think we are still seeing in the US market, a very significant increase in imports here in the second quarter. It is counterintuitive. What I would tell you, I think the order rate and the time on the water for tires coming out of Southeast Asia could be anywhere between three to five months.

我認為我們仍然看到美國市場第二季的進口量顯著成長。這是違反直覺的。我想告訴你的是，我認為從東南亞出口的輪胎的訂單率和海上運輸時間可能在三到五個月之間。

And so the tires that are showing up, I think, now are more related to this on again, off again discourse around tariffs and speculation about tariffs actually potentially being pushed out further.

因此，我認為，現在出現的輪胎問題更多地與圍繞關稅的反覆討論以及有關關稅實際上可能進一步推遲的猜測有關。

We're at a point in time where the tariff narrative seems to be settling down. And so our expectations are that when we move into the third quarter, we might begin to see some declines in the imports in the US. I think what that means for Europe, though, is the potential for some additional tariffs coming in because those -- that investigation will not be complete until the first quarter of next year. Having said that, there is this idea that the tariffs might be applied retroactively back through July. So we'll just have to see how some of this plays out over the next quarter.

我們正處於關稅敘事似乎逐漸平息的時刻。因此，我們預計，進入第三季時，我們可能會開始看到美國進口量出現一些下降。我認為這對歐洲來說意味著可能會徵收一些額外的關稅，因為這些調查要到明年第一季才能完成。話雖如此，但有觀點認為，這些關稅可能會追溯至 7 月。因此，我們只需要看看下個季度的情況如何。

Second and last question is still on price mix. But from the perspective of any color that you could please provide on the relative contribution of price versus mix? Are you seeing pricing tailwinds partly offset by mix headwinds given general consumer affordability angst issues?

第二個也是最後一個問題仍然是關於價格組合。但是從任何顏色的角度來看，您能否提供價格與混合相對貢獻的情況？考慮到消費者普遍存在的負擔能力擔憂問題，您是否認為價格順風部分被混合逆風所抵消？

And then how to think about that going forward? It seems like the pricing component of price/mix can improve in a straightforward manner once the pre-buys are finally over. But how should we think about mix? Is mix going to be helped by the fact that the lowest tier tires will increase proportionately the most because they're the ones that are disproportionately imported?

那麼接下來該如何考慮這個問題呢？一旦預購最終結束，價格/組合的定價部分似乎可以以直接的方式改善。但是我們該如何思考混合呢？由於最低端輪胎的進口量不成比例，因此其價格將相應上漲，這是否會對混合輪胎有所幫助？

Or do you expect there to be a headwind to mix as consumers shift to lower feature tires to try to cope or compensate for the higher like-for-like tire pricing?

或者您是否預計，隨著消費者轉向低功能輪胎以試圖應對或彌補同類輪胎價格上漲，將會出現逆風？

So I guess what I would start with is just to say that the price announcements that we made in early May are effective. Mark mentioned this in his script. I mean they are installed and effective, and that's what you're seeing show up in our second quarter walk, mostly offset by a couple of items. The biggest driver of the offset is commercial truck mix, just given the downdraft that we've seen in that industry.

所以我想首先要說的是，我們在五月初發布的價格公告是有效的。馬克在他的劇本中提到了這一點。我的意思是它們已經安裝並且有效，這就是您在我們的第二季度步行中看到的，大部分被幾個項目所抵消。鑑於我們在該行業看到的下滑趨勢，抵消的最大驅動力是商用卡車組合。

And then there's a little bit of an impact because when we implemented pricing, a lot of the demand in the US came at the lower end of the market, I think around speculation that there will be more price inflation in the industry overall at the low end of the market. I mean we can't really talk about forward pricing. What I would say is we do have some seasonal mix impacts here, especially as we head into the fourth quarter, we always tend to have a strengthening mix heading into the end of the year.

然後就會產生一點影響，因為當我們實施定價時，美國的許多需求都來自低端市場，我認為人們猜測整個產業的低端市場將出現更多的價格上漲。我的意思是我們實際上不能談論遠期定價。我想說的是，我們確實受到了一些季節性組合的影響，特別是當我們進入第四季度時，我們總是傾向於在年底前有一個加強的組合。

And then as Mark mentioned also, I mean, we are introducing just a ton of new products in greater-than-1-inch room sizes. We've got 11 new product launches in the back half of the year in North America, in particular, that should really help drive a rich mix for us as well.

正如馬克所提到的，我們正在推出大量適用於大於 1 英寸房間尺寸的新產品。特別是今年下半年我們在北美推出了 11 款新產品，這也確實有助於我們實現豐富的產品組合。

Globally, we are -- we mentioned the 230 SKUs on the rich winter mix in EMEA. In total, Ryan, we've got over 500 new SKUs between the US and EMEA as well as AP, but all heavily focused on the 18-inch and above that as we've discussed in earlier earnings calls, are really about us participating and gaining share in that premium mix of the market.

在全球範圍內，我們——我們提到了 EMEA 地區豐富的冬季組合中的 230 個 SKU。總的來說，Ryan，我們在美國、歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及亞太地區擁有超過 500 個新 SKU，但所有 SKU 都主要集中在 18 英寸及以上，正如我們在之前的收益電話會議上所討論的那樣，這實際上是為了讓我們參與到高端市場並獲得份額。

Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。

This is James Mulholland on for Edison. I have a question and then a quick follow-up. Just on your walk in the quarter, if we look at it, there's a significant headwind that came from this bucket of other costs. I was wondering if you could just double-click on what that $74 million is and whether it's something we should have in our models for the next few quarters?

這是詹姆斯·穆赫蘭 (James Mulholland) 為愛迪生拍攝的。我有一個問題，然後快速跟進。就本季的情況來看，如果我們看一下，就會發現來自其他成本的巨大阻力。我想知道您是否可以雙擊一下這 7400 萬美元是什麼，以及這是否是我們在未來幾季的模型中應該包含的內容？

Sorry, what was the figure you quoted, James?

抱歉，詹姆斯，您引用的數字是多少？

There is a $74 million other costs that's sitting within your inflation and other cost bucket, and it's -- I think it's quite a bit higher than it has been in past quarters. So I'm just curious what's in there?

還有 7400 萬美元的其他成本屬於通貨膨脹和其他成本範疇，而且 - 我認為它比前幾個季度高出不少。所以我只是好奇裡面有什麼？

Sorry, yes, I'm sorry. I was focused on another basket on the SOI walk. But when we look at all of the buckets kind of concentrated in and around manufacturing costs, I break it down into a few major drivers. The first is annualized inflation that runs about $225 million across our cost base, and that's 3% annual inflation. Also included in that figure is about $350 million of annualized tariff costs.

抱歉，是的，我很抱歉。在 SOI 散步時，我的注意力集中在另一個籃子上。但是，當我們查看製造成本及其周圍的所有因素時，我將其分解為幾個主要驅動因素。第一個是年化通貨膨脹率，我們的成本基礎約為 2.25 億美元，即年通貨膨脹率為 3%。該數字還包括約 3.5 億美元的年度關稅成本。

That's new coming into the cost base. So that's probably the increase you're noting. I'd expect that number to be on the order of magnitude of $60 million in Q3, $70 million to $80 million in Q4 as we continue to incur tariff costs across our global supply chain.

這是成本基礎中的新內容。這可能就是您注意到的成長。我預計，由於我們全球供應鏈中繼續產生關稅成本，這一數字在第三季將達到 6,000 萬美元，在第四季將達到 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。

And then we will expect to get to that run rate in 2026. The third factor I'd point out, and this is a big part of our Goodyear Forward programs is we're carrying some incremental manufacturing inefficiencies that would generally just attract costs more than what we would normally expect because we are ramping down some factories, especially in Germany, first involved in Fulda. So as we get to full facility closures on those, those costs will come out. And those dates are public and announced for each one of those factories.

我們預計在 2026 年達到此運行率。我要指出的第三個因素，也是固特異前進計畫的重要組成部分，就是我們正在經歷一些漸進式的製造效率低下，這通常只會導致成本高於我們通常預期，因為我們正在縮減一些工廠，特別是在德國的工廠，首先涉及富爾達工廠。因此，當我們完全關閉這些設施時，這些成本就會顯現出來。這些日期都是公開的，每個工廠都會公佈。

Great. That's helpful. And then within that commercial vehicle headwind that we saw in the quarter, should we expect a similar SOI impact going forward for the next few quarters? Or was this maybe the peak of it? And then as you ramp down a little bit to adjust for it, it shouldn't be as significant?

偉大的。這很有幫助。那麼，在本季我們看到的商用車逆風中，我們是否應該預期未來幾季也會出現類似的 SOI 影響？或者這或許就是它的巔峰了？然後，當你稍微降低一點來適應它時，它就不應該那麼重要了？

Well, the way I would have you think about it is we talked about a $30 million headwind in mix. And that's because the contribution from commercial truck profit is so significant. And I think about -- we didn't give a robust outlook for the third and fourth quarters. So I would think about having to lap that. But then there's some additional that will come on top in Q3 and Q4 as we adjust production.

好吧，我希望你這樣想，我們談論的是 3000 萬美元的逆風。這是因為商用卡車利潤的貢獻非常巨大。我認為——我們沒有對第三季和第四季做出樂觀的展望。所以我會考慮是否要解決這個問題。但隨著我們調整生產，第三季和第四季還會有一些額外的產量。

And so I would think about that being an extra $25 million in unabsorbed over the course of the second half. And then I mentioned we're also incurring some new tariff costs. The Brazil rates have gone up from 10% to 50%, and that's where we source our retread products from our own operations. And then we're also doing some sourcing from our truck tire joint venture in Vietnam that will increase our cost. That's $20 million new on an annualized basis.

因此，我認為這將是下半年未吸收的額外 2500 萬美元。然後我提到我們也產生了一些新的關稅成本。巴西的稅率已從 10% 上漲至 50%，我們從那裡自己的工廠採購翻新輪胎產品。然後，我們也從越南的卡車輪胎合資企業進行採購，這將增加我們的成本。以年率計算，這相當於新增 2000 萬美元。

James Picariello, BNP.

英國國家黨的詹姆斯‧皮卡里耶洛 (James Picariello)。

This is Jake Scholl on for James. So it looks like tariffs are trending a little bit worse. So do you guys have any mitigation efforts in the hopper as we think about the annualization to next year? And it looks like at a higher level, this was a pretty significant reset for the full year with -- depending on your volume assumptions, 3Q SOI running towards the $285 million to $290 million range versus the previous walk at about $400 million and the full year at about $1.0 billion from the prior $1.3 billion. So can you just confirm if we're thinking about those numbers correctly?

我是傑克‧肖爾 (Jake Scholl)，代替詹姆斯。因此看起來關稅趨勢有點惡化。那麼，當我們考慮明年的年度化時，你們有什麼緩解措施嗎？從更高層來看，這對全年而言是一次相當重要的調整——取決於您的交易量假設，第三季 SOI 將達到 2.85 億美元至 2.9 億美元，而之前的預期為 4 億美元左右，全年預期為 10 億美元左右，而之前的預期為 13 億美元。那麼，您能否確認我們對這些數字的思考是否正確？

So just a couple of comments. You started with the note that our tariff costs are going up from about $300 million this year to about $350 million, just given some of the changes in rate. I do think we will make adjustments to our supply chain to limit that risk on our P&L over the course of the second half. And we'll be able to come back to you at the end of the year, early next year with our plans, but certainly have cost savings actions as well as sourcing actions that will help mitigate that number going forward.

僅提幾點意見。您首先提到，由於稅率的一些變化，我們的關稅成本將從今年的約 3 億美元上漲至約 3.5 億美元。我確實認為我們將對供應鏈進行調整，以限制下半年損益中的風險。我們將能夠在今年年底或明年年初向您匯報我們的計劃，但肯定會採取成本節約措施以及採購行動，以幫助減輕未來的這一數字。

There's obviously been a lot of volatility there. I mean, as I think about the outlook, I mean, what we're experiencing is really connected to an exceptional period of time in our industry. And we're delivering against what we can control. Mark mentioned that our Goodyear Forward targets are cost savings on path.

那裡顯然存在著很大的波動。我的意思是，當我思考前景時，我們所經歷的一切實際上與我們行業的一個特殊時期有關。我們正在盡我們所能地實現目標。馬克提到，我們的固特異前進目標是節省成本。

And when I think about the fourth quarter, I mean, I don't want to be too positive or too negative. I think for us, we want -- on volume in particular, I mean, I've given a lot of perspective on how price mix is likely to play out. In my script, I gave a lot of perspective on how you should be thinking about our cost. And so in the fourth quarter, the variable that's left is really all around volume. And I do think that -- and potentially some additional price mix.

當我考慮第四季時，我的意思是，我不想太積極或太消極。我認為對我們來說，我們想要的——特別是在數量上，我的意思是，我已經給出了很多關於價格組合可能如何發揮作用的觀點。在我的腳本中，我給出了很多關於您應該如何考慮我們的成本的觀點。因此，在第四季度，剩下的變數實際上都與數量有關。我確實認為——並且可能還有一些額外的價格組合。

But I do think the way that we're characterizing the industry environment right now says that not a lot of visibility into when we'll see this pre-buy sell-through. Our thinking is that, that will play out over the course of the third quarter, but we want to have -- see through that experience before we give you our perspective on volume in Q4.

但我確實認為，我們目前對行業環境的描述表明，我們無法預測何時能看到這種預售銷售。我們的想法是，這將在第三季度發揮作用，但我們希望在向您提供我們對第四季度銷售的看法之前，先了解這一經驗。

The other thing, James, I would add on is just reiterating what Christina mentioned, right? And we talked about at the beginning. which is really around the cadence, the governance and the diligence behind our Goodyear Forward actions. And we continue the robustness of our cadence of sessions with all the associates around the world, continuing to refill our pipelines with projects and really focused on the ones that are value-add or cost controlling all around the world, right?

詹姆斯，我想補充的另一件事就是重申克里斯蒂娜提到的話，對嗎？我們在一開始就談到了這一點，這實際上是圍繞著固特異前進行動背後的節奏、治理和勤奮。我們將繼續與世界各地的所有同事保持密切的會議節奏，繼續用項目補充我們的管道，並真正專注於那些在世界各地增加價值或控製成本的項目，對嗎？

So that's been embedded in our DNA, and we'll continue to focus on the flex to make sure that we are controlling every cost possible during this period.

這已經融入我們的 DNA 中，我們將繼續專注於靈活性，以確保我們在此期間控制一切可能的成本。

And then for the wind down of the Cooper brand's relationship with ATD, can you talk about just the potential disruption that may have had on volumes in the quarter? And when would you expect that to resolve?

那麼，關於 Cooper 品牌與 ATD 關係的結束，您能否談談這可能對本季銷售造成的潛在影響？您預計什麼時候能解決這個問題？

Maybe I can start and then Christina can pick up. I guess taking a step back, why did we exit ATD, right? Our very clear strategy at Goodyear is to make sure we're working with aligned distributors that are representing our full product portfolio, right? And working together with us to build our Goodyear brands in the marketplace. We are constantly looking and doing super careful assessments around operational capabilities, the service rate, stability and alignment.

也許我可以先開始，然後克里斯蒂娜可以接手。我想退一步來說，我們為什麼要退出 ATD，對吧？固特異的明確策略是確保與代表我們全部產品組合的一致經銷商合作，對嗎？並與我們共同努力在市場上打造我們的固特異品牌。我們不斷關注並進行有關營運能力、服務率、穩定性和一致性的極其仔細的評估。

And we decided to strengthen our partnerships specifically with TireHub, which is our joint venture with Bridgestone and some other key partners who have long-standing aligned distributors that are in keeping with partnership with Goodyear.

我們決定加強與 TireHub 的合作關係，TireHub 是我們與普利司通和其他一些關鍵合作夥伴的合資企業，這些合作夥伴擁有長期穩定的分銷商，並與固特異保持著良好的合作關係。

And we see a lot of benefit for us working with fewer but much more aligned distributors building our Goodyear family of brands and servicing our dealers and our retailers effectively efficiency with a full product screen, which we have available to the marketplace. We don't want to work with individuals that aren't representing our full portfolio. And as we looked and as I shared in my comments at the beginning, right? We took risk assessments. We took service assessments. And again, we feel that it absolutely is the right thing to do there. By the way, ATD was less than 5% of our total consumer replacement volumes.

我們看到，與數量更少但更加協調一致的經銷商合作，可以帶來很多好處，有助於打造固特異品牌系列，並透過我們向市場提供的全系列產品螢幕，高效地為我們的經銷商和零售商提供服務。我們不想與不能代表我們全部投資組合的個人合作。正如我們所看到的，以及我在一開始的評論中所分享的，對嗎？我們進行了風險評估。我們進行了服務評估。我們再次認為，這絕對是正確的做法。順便說一句，ATD 不到我們總消費者更換量的 5%。

Yes. Maybe I'll just pop in to say we had a distribution that we had to transition, retailers that we had to transition to new distribution. I would say, by the end of July, nearly all and 95% of the retail base voluntarily made that switch and all of our orders are coming in through those new distributors. We do have some private label volume at ATD as well.

是的。也許我只是想說，我們有一個必須轉變的分銷管道，零售商必須轉向新的分銷管道。我想說，到 7 月底，幾乎所有（95％）的零售商都自願進行了轉換，並且我們所有的訂單都通過這些新的分銷商下達。我們在 ATD 也確實有一些自有品牌。

That's something that we expect to wind down over time in a very orderly way. And we expect to offset that volume through mutual commitments with other of our distributors.

我們期望隨著時間的推移，這個問題能夠以非常有序的方式逐漸解決。我們希望透過與其他分銷商的相互承諾來抵消這一數量。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

伊曼紐爾·羅斯納（Emmanuel Rosner），沃爾夫研究公司。

I appreciate all the elements of outlook into the third quarter. Just curious if you could comment on how you would see, therefore, the full year play out on some of the main metrics. It doesn't look like some of these issues are probably going to be going away super quickly.

我讚賞對第三季前景的所有因素。我只是好奇您是否可以評論一下您如何看待全年一些主要指標的表現。看起來其中一些問題可能不會很快消失。

So any sense where that sort of like leaves us on SOI or free cash flow on a full year basis? Or another way to ask potentially is what are puts and takes going to Q4? Are some things expected to get better or not necessarily?

那麼，這是否意味著我們會在全年的基礎上獲得 SOI 或自由現金流？或者另一種可能的方式是問，第四季的看跌期權和看漲期權是多少？有些事情預計會好轉還是不一定會好轉？

Yes, sure, Emmanuel. I'll hit the fourth quarter SOI. I mean we've given you a lot of the different drivers for Q3. And these are the factors that we know. Q4 raw materials should be favorable. Goodyear Forward should be a benefit of $175 million. I think unabsorbed overhead in the fourth quarter is going to be a little higher than the third quarter, just given that we will be making appropriate ticket reductions in our factories in order to align with demand and manage for cost and cash.

是的，當然，伊曼紐爾。我將參加第四季的 SOI。我的意思是我們已經為您提供了許多針對 Q3 的不同驅動因素。這些都是我們知道的因素。第四季原料應該會有利。Goodyear Forward 的收益應為 1.75 億美元。我認為第四季度的未吸收間接費用將比第三季略高，因為我們將在工廠進行適當的降價，以滿足需求並管理成本和現金。

Other costs, I mean, we've talked about this a little bit already. Other costs in the fourth quarter will be higher due to new tariffs and some incremental factory inefficiencies ultimately depending on that production in the third quarter. And we want to be, again, aligned with demand and environment is very uncertain. Price mix, I've made some comments about we have some seasonality benefit in the fourth quarter in mix, in particular.

其他費用，我的意思是，我們已經討論過這個問題了。由於新關稅和一些工廠效率的下降最終取決於第三季的產量，第四季的其他成本將會更高。我們希望再次與需求和環境保持一致，但這非常不確定。價格組合，我已經發表了一些評論，特別是關於我們在第四季度有一些季節性優勢。

And then what that leaves us is with volume. And just having come through such a disruptive and challenging quarter, I think it's hard for us, again, to determine exactly how that's going to play out in the fourth quarter because we don't know how long it's going to take for some of this churn in the US market is going to take.

接下來我們要考慮的是音量。剛剛經歷瞭如此混亂和充滿挑戰的一個季度，我認為我們很難再次確定第四季度的具體情況，因為我們不知道美國市場的部分波動需要多長時間才能結束。

I think we're looking for some data that will help us give you more of a forecast around stabilization in the US and that's data to support things like import slowdown and import channel inventory sell-through. And we're expecting that to come through over the course of the third quarter, maybe in the fourth quarter, but we just don't have that data yet to guide on the volume. When I look at free cash flow, Emmanuel, we've laid out those drivers as well. Last call, what we said is we would be slightly positive in free cash flow.

我認為我們正在尋找一些數據，這些數據將有助於我們對美國經濟的穩定做出更多預測，這些數據可以支持進口放緩和進口通路庫存銷售等情況。我們預計這一數字將在第三季或第四季實現，但我們目前還沒有相關數據來判斷銷售。當我查看自由現金流時，伊曼紐爾，我們也列出了這些驅動因素。最後，我們說的是，我們的自由現金流會略微呈正值。

Working capital has come down just a touch. you'll need to adjust the earnings. And so your cash flow should be lower. And then there's -- I talked about in my prepared remarks, there's an add-back related to supply agreements. And at the end of the year, the add-back in our operating cash flow should be $265 million, and those are related to those supply agreements on both OTR and transition agreements on Dunlop.

營運資金略有下降。您需要調整收益。因此你的現金流應該會更低。然後還有——我在準備好的演講中談到了，有一個與供應協議相關的附加內容。到年底，我們的營運現金流的加回應該是 2.65 億美元，這些與 OTR 的供應協議和鄧祿普的過渡協議有關。

I think overall, Emmanuel, I'd say our balance sheet position is going to be very strong at the end of the year, even with a little bit of this downdraft we're seeing right now in the industry.

伊曼紐爾，我認為總體而言，即使目前行業出現了一些下滑趨勢，到年底我們的資產負債表狀況仍將非常強勁。

Okay. And just a clarification, then I have a separate question, but these add-backs related to the supply agreement, those were not contemplated in your previous free cash flow walk?

好的。需要澄清的是，我還有一個單獨的問題，這些與供應協議相關的附加費用，在您之前的自由現金流計算中沒有考慮到嗎？

No, they were not.

不，他們不是。

Okay. And then separately, I wanted to sort of just ask you a little bit about the longer-term view and picture. So sort of like I heard your remarks around, look, it's a question of when, not if, when things settle down, industry conditions, then you'll be able to perform.

好的。另外，我想問您一些關於長期觀點和前景的問題。所以有點像我聽到你的言論，看，這是一個時間問題，而不是是否的問題，當事情安定下來，行業狀況穩定下來，你就能表現了。

Just curious around the drivers of your confidence there. It sort of feels that essentially, whenever one market puts bears in place like the tariffs, then these imports still make their way to sort of another market where that is significant for Goodyear as well. And so now the US may be potentially stabilizing, but then you have Europe. So I guess where -- what gives you confidence essentially that at some point, this would essentially stabilize and enable you to really show the benefit from your actions?

我只是好奇您信心的驅動因素是什麼。感覺基本上，每當一個市場實施關稅等政策時，這些進口產品仍然會進入另一個市場，這對固特異來說也具有重要意義。因此，現在美國可能趨於穩定，但歐洲也面臨同樣的問題。所以我想，是什麼讓你有信心，在某個時候，這會從本質上穩定下來，並讓你真正展現出你的行動帶來的好處？

Well, Emmanuel, I guess I'll start and let Mark finish up. But I would say it's an especially turbulent environment. And we still should benefit. I mean we completely expect to benefit with the strength of our US manufacturing footprint.

好吧，伊曼紐爾，我想我先開始，然後讓馬克結束。但我想說這是一個特別動盪的環境。我們仍然應該受益。我的意思是，我們完全希望從美國製造業的強大影響力中獲益。

And all at the same time, what's a little bit new news that's also really good for us is that there are these new contemplated tariffs in Europe and those rates are punitive, 41% to 104% is what the EU has disclosed as far as those tariffs.

同時，對我們來說確實是一個好消息，那就是歐洲正在考慮徵收新的關稅，而且這些稅率是懲罰性的，歐盟揭露的稅率為 41% 至 104%。

I think it's really hard for us to give you clarity on timing right now because I do think we're going to have to work through some of this disruption. But we're as confident today as we were last quarter that as the market stabilizes, we're going to be able to capitalize on those opportunities.

我認為現在我們很難向您明確時間安排，因為我確實認為我們必須解決其中的一些幹擾。但我們今天和上個季度一樣有信心，隨著市場穩定，我們將能夠利用這些機會。

Yes. No, exactly, as Christina said, right? It's the investigation into the pricing around Europe with the tariffs that should be ultimately backdated, right? To the start of that investigation, for sure, creates a bit of a churn in terms of speculative prebuy, we assume from the folks there. But again, working through that and as that would take effect, assuming end of year, start of next year, right? The goodness there would start to flow through. We're also very encouraged, right? By winter sellout season from our side with that.

是的。不，正如克里斯蒂娜所說的那樣，對嗎？這是對歐洲各地定價的調查，關稅最終應該追溯到以前，對嗎？我們認為，在調查開始時，肯定會對投機性預購產生一些影響。但是，再說一遍，透過努力，它就會生效，假設是今年年底，明年年初，對嗎？那裡的善良將會開始流動。我們也很受鼓舞，對吧？到了冬季銷售旺季，我們這邊就跟這樣。

In terms of the US, as we said, right? The kind of the on and off or the pushouts and different things in the US marketplace created these gaps of opportunities for additional prebuy. So it's speculative as to when that will work through or churn its way through.

就美國而言，正如我們所說，對嗎？美國市場上的這種開啟和關閉或推出等不同情況為進一步的預購創造了機會。因此，尚不清楚何時才能實現這一目標或取得成功。

We're starting to see those in the sellout in the marketplace. So it's a bit of a crystal ball of when that works through. But again, we are we are definitely positioned very well with our US footprint. We're having lots of conversations with various OEs that are already starting to flex to more USMCA based, which we certainly are a benefactor of that, particularly with the US footprint. So again, that's why we are confident the timing of the start piece is the question mark, right? But we are absolutely lined up right for that.

我們開始看到市場上的這些商品被賣光了。因此，它就像一個水晶球，可以預測何時實現這一目標。但再次強調，我們在美國市場的地位確實非常有利。我們正在與各種 OE 進行大量對話，他們已經開始更多地向 USMCA 靠攏，我們當然是其中的受益者，尤其是在美國的影響下。所以，這就是為什麼我們有信心起始時間是個問號，對嗎？但我們絕對已經做好這樣的準備了。

And as we mentioned as well, Emmanuel, right? The push that we have in developing, launching and bringing to market the 18-inch and above higher performance and premium mix of tires, particularly in the Americas market in areas that we did not participate in before in a meaningful way gives us all of that confidence to things are -- if things start flowing, right? We are going to do it.

正如我們也提到的，Emmanuel，對吧？我們大力開發、推出和向市場推出 18 吋及以上的高性能優質輪胎，特別是在美洲市場，這些我們以前沒有以有意義的方式參與的地區，這讓我們對事情充滿信心——如果事情開始順利的話，對嗎？我們會這麼做的。

And we actually saw that as well, though, in the quarter in terms of our growth in the 18-inch and above. We're very pleased with that part of it, and it will continue to be so with the new launches coming throughout the rest of this year and into quarter one of next year.

但實際上，我們在本季度也看到了 18 吋及以上產品的成長。我們對這部分感到非常滿意，隨著今年剩餘時間和明年第一季新產品的推出，我們將繼續感到滿意。

Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli，TD Cowen。

Just a follow-up to the last question. I know it's early to really talk about 2026 in any detail. But I'm curious, as you think about how the industry is progressing this year, what are the puts and takes to think about at a high-level impacts on next year when we start to think about the SOI bridge and kind of how this year's events may impact the bridge into next year?

這只是上一個問題的後續答案。我知道現在詳細談論 2026 年還為時過早。但我很好奇，當您思考今年產業的發展時，當我們開始考慮 SOI 橋樑時，需要考慮對明年產生哪些高層次的影響，以及今年的事件可能如何影響明年的橋樑？

Yes. Itay, I think Mark just touched on the difficulty in calling the timing with some of this disruption. Certainly would hope that by the fourth quarter, some of this has rolled through. But we're right now having difficulty in even calling volume in Q4, just given the level of disruption in the US market.

是的。伊泰，我認為馬克剛才談到了在這種混亂的情況下判斷時機的困難。當然希望到第四季度，其中一些措施能夠落實。但考慮到美國市場的混亂程度，我們現在甚至很難預測第四季的銷售。

But as we look into 2026, there are variables that we do know. I mean, raw materials have flipped to a tailwind. And at least right now, and I realize it's only August, but the baseline of that at current feedstocks would be a couple of hundred million dollar tailwind next year.

但當我們展望2026年時，我們確實知道一些變數。我的意思是，原料已經轉為順風。至少現在，我知道現在只是八月，但以目前的原料為基礎，明年將帶來數億美元的順風。

Goodyear Forward should be a benefit of at least $250 million. That's just what's going to be in the flow-through. And as we discussed a little bit earlier, we've got sourcing changes and other cost savings in the pipeline that we will share more with you about as we head into the end of the year.

Goodyear Forward 的收益至少應為 2.5 億美元。這就是流通過程中將要發生的事情。正如我們之前討論過的，我們正在進行採購變更和其他成本節約，我們將在年底前與您分享更多相關資訊。

But again, just looking to see some of that stabilization as we firm up our thinking around 2024. The other pieces I just want to make sure I remind everyone of is that like as we think about the ability to scale earnings next year, a 1% price increase in our US Consumer Replacement business is worth $55 million. And so far, we've implemented 4% in the US market back in May.

但是，我們再次強調，我們只是希望看到一些穩定性，因為我們將在 2024 年左右確定我們的想法。另外我想提醒大家的是，當我們考慮明年擴大獲利的能力時，我們美國消費者替代業務 1% 的價格上漲價值 5,500 萬美元。到目前為止，我們已在 5 月在美國市場實施了 4% 的降幅。

In the same way, a 1% price increase in EMEA is worth $25 million on an annualized basis. And then, of course, volume, I mean, when we talked about benefits that we may -- that we expect to see as -- out of all of this, we may also improve the volume, and that's about $40, including sales margin and overhead absorption on a per unit basis. So a whole lot of opportunity once we see some of this churn kind of stabilize -- sell-through and stabilize in the market.

同樣，歐洲、中東和非洲地區價格上漲 1% 則以年率計算價值 2,500 萬美元。然後，當然還有銷量，我的意思是，當我們談論我們可能 - 我們期望從所有這些中看到的好處時，我們也可能會提高銷量，這大約是 40 美元，包括每單位的銷售利潤和間接費用吸收。因此，一旦我們看到部分客戶流失趨於穩定，市場銷售和穩定，就會出現大量機會。

That's very helpful. And then just given some of the near-term challenges, I'm curious if you are thinking about additional cost cutting or even restructuring actions, just given the asset sale proceeds and the incremental cash you'll be bringing on to the balance sheet. I'm not sure if you're at that point yet, but just curious if there's potential additional actions that you're contemplating?

這非常有幫助。然後考慮到一些近期的挑戰，我很好奇您是否正在考慮進一步削減成本甚至重組行動，考慮到資產出售收益和您將在資產負債表上帶來的增量現金。我不確定您是否已經到了那一步，但我只是好奇您是否正在考慮採取其他潛在的行動？

Yes. I think, Itay, it would be super speculative at this point for us to make any comments around any additional restructuring to the cost base above and beyond what we've already committed to and are in process with.

是的。我認為，Itay，目前我們對於在我們已經承諾和正在進行的成本基礎之外進行任何額外重組發表任何評論都是非常具有推測性的。

Again, we don't believe this current environment is reflective of the long-term part of the business or the normalized industry environment. With that said, we are in the process of closing the three factories in Europe. We announced the South Africa one last month or the month before. So the two in Germany plus South Africa. And we're rightsizing plants all around the world on a regular basis.

再次強調，我們不認為當前的環境反映了業務的長期部分或正常化的行業環境。話雖如此，我們正在關閉歐洲的三家工廠。我們上個月或上上個月宣布了南非的計劃。所以德國有兩個，還有南非。我們會定期對世界各地的工廠進行規模調整。

It's just part of our flexing of our cost structure. So again, we continue to aggressively manage the cost structure with the Goodyear Forward discipline, keeping the pipeline full.

這只是我們成本結構調整的一部分。因此，我們將繼續積極地依照固特異前進原則管理成本結構，保持管道暢通。

So as I mentioned earlier, right, we're keeping those projects and new projects filled so that we are adding value by reducing the cost and continuing to look at that. But there's no major one that to be announced at this point above and beyond normal discipline.

正如我之前提到的，我們將繼續進行這些項目並完成新項目，以便透過降低成本來增加價值並繼續關注這一點。但目前還沒有什麼超出正常紀律的重大決定需要宣布。

And there are no further questions on the line at this time. I'll turn the program back to Mark Stewart for any additional or closing remarks.

目前我們還沒有其他問題。我將把節目交還給馬克·斯圖爾特，請他發表任何補充或結束語。

Thank you, David, and thank you all for joining the call today. Let me just wrap up for Christina and I saying, while short-term outlook definitely remains turbulent given the industry environment broadly, we're staying very focused on what we can control and what we continue to deliver. We're continuing to execute ahead of schedule on Goodyear Forward.

謝謝你，大衛，也謝謝大家今天參加電話會議。最後，讓我為克里斯蒂娜和我說一句，儘管考慮到整個行業環境，短期前景肯定仍然動盪，但我們將高度關注我們能夠控制的事情以及我們將繼續提供什麼。我們將繼續提前執行 Goodyear Forward 計劃。

We're continuing to take the right cost control actions. We're taking smart pricing actions in the marketplaces, and we're gaining share in the profitable premium segments of the market. We continue to sharpen that portfolio and at the same time, strengthening our balance sheet as we've shared, right? We're really focused again on refreshing the existing product lines, bringing the new power lines into the market into the premium spaces. And despite these near-term headwinds, I am very confident as the market stabilizes, our momentum will return.

我們正在繼續採取正確的成本控制措施。我們在市場上採取了明智的定價行動，並在利潤豐厚的高端市場中獲得了份額。我們將繼續完善投資組合，同時加強我們的資產負債表，正如我們所分享的，對嗎？我們真正再次專注於更新現有的產品線，將新的電源線引入高端市場。儘管近期存在這些不利因素，但我非常有信心，隨著市場穩定，我們的勢頭將會恢復。

The Goodyear team is committed to execution and delivering results. Thank you all for joining.

固特異團隊致力於執行並取得成果。感謝大家的加入。

This does conclude the Goodyear Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Again, thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

固特異 2025 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。再次感謝您的參與，現在您可以斷開連接了。