Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Katie, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's third quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Ryan Reed, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

早安.我叫凱蒂，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。此時此刻，我謹代表固特異公司歡迎各位參加2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，本次通話可能會被錄音。現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係副總裁瑞安·里德先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. With me today are Mark Stewart, CEO and President; and Christina Zamarro, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝大家，大家早安。歡迎參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是執行長兼總裁馬克·斯圖爾特，以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯蒂娜·紮馬羅。

A couple of notes before we get started. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures. For more information on the most significant factors that could affect our future results and for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation and our filings with the SEC. All our earnings materials can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com, where a replay of this call will also be available.

開始之前，有幾點需要說明。在本次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性聲明並提及非GAAP財務指標。有關可能影響我們未來業績的最重要因素的更多資​​訊以及非GAAP指標的調整，請參閱今天的簡報和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。您可以在我們的網站 investor.goodyear.com 上找到我們所有的收益報告資料，本次電話會議的錄音回放也將在該網站上提供。

I'll now turn the call over to Mark.

現在我將把電話交給馬克。

Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our call. As outlined in our press release, we delivered revenue of $4.6 billion and segment operating income of $287 million in the quarter, results slightly ahead of the revised expectation we shared with you all on our last call. It's important to view these results in the context of an industry environment that remains challenging, particularly given continued volatility and global trade flows.

謝謝你，瑞恩，大家早安。感謝您參加我們的電話會議。正如我們在新聞稿中所述，本季度我們實現了 46 億美元的收入和 2.87 億美元的部門營業收入，略高於我們在上次電話會議上與大家分享的修訂預期。重要的是要將這些結果放在依然充滿挑戰的產業環境背景下看待，尤其是在持續的波動和全球貿易流動的情況下。

Even in that environment, we achieved meaningful sequential earnings and margin expansion, driven by the continued strong execution of the Goodyear Forward initiatives. Last quarter, I emphasized our focus on controlling the controllables and that approach continues to guide our actions here at Goodyear.

即使在這樣的環境下，在「固特異向前發展」計畫持續強勁執行的推動下，我們仍然實現了可觀的獲利和利潤率環比增長。上個季度，我強調了我們對可控因素的控制，這一方針將繼續指導我們在固特異的行動。

With yesterday's announcement on the Chemicals business, we've now completed our planned divestitures, and we're bringing the balance sheet back to a position of health. We've introduced more premium product lines than ever before while improving organizational agility and sharpening our focus on margin and profitability. We're positioning the business to be able to leverage those strengths as the market environment begins to normalize.

隨著昨天關於化學業務的公告發布，我們現在已經完成了計劃中的資產剝離，資產負債表也恢復了健康狀態。我們推出了比以往任何時候都多的優質產品線，同時提高了組織靈活性，並更加重視利潤率和獲利能力。隨著市場環境逐漸恢復正常，我們將調整業務佈局，以便能夠充分利用這些優勢。

With the remainder of my time today, I'll discuss what we're seeing across the industry and in each of our business segments, also how we're responding. After that, I'll hand it over to Christina to walk through our third quarter financial results and how we're thinking about the outlook for the remainder of '25.

今天剩下的時間，我將討論我們目前在整個行業以及我們各個業務領域所看到的情況，以及我們是如何應對的。之後，我將把發言權交給克里斯蒂娜，讓她介紹我們第三季的財務業績以及我們對 2025 年剩餘時間的展望。

Let's start with the Americas. In the Americas, the consumer replacement market continued to experience disruption similar to last quarter. On the consumer OE side, volume performed well, supported by strength in light truck and SUV fitments. Additionally, we've won additional fitments driven by OEM preferences for USMCA compliant supply. We expect OEM resourcing to remain a positive contributor for us going forward.

我們先從美洲開始。在美洲，消費品更換市場持續經歷與上個季度類似的混亂局面。在消費品原廠配套方面，銷售表現良好，這得益於輕型卡車和SUV配件市場的強勁表現。此外，由於原始設備製造商 (OEM) 更傾向於提供符合美墨加協定 (USMCA) 標準的供應，我們贏得了更多訂單。我們預計OEM資源在未來仍將對我們產生正面影響。

As you all know, with US tariffs on consumer tires effective in May, the domestic replacement market saw a surge of low-cost imports, coinciding with the implementation of increased duties during the first half of this year. In the third quarter, US non-USTMA member imports were up an estimated 2%, which is actually a positive development compared to the significant growth we saw in the first half of this year.

如大家所知，隨著美國對消費輪胎徵收關稅於 5 月生效，國內替換市場出現了大量低成本進口輪胎，這與今年上半年提高關稅的實施時間相吻合。第三季度，美國非美國貿易管理法成員國的進口額估計增加了 2%，與今年上半年我們看到的顯著成長相比，這實際上是一個積極的發展。

More recently, we're hearing that the low-end imports may have slowed further, though it may take more time to confirm that trend, given the current government shutdown, which impacts the reporting of the imports. As we look at the drivers for the industry at a macro level, US vehicle miles traveled are trending up about 1 percentage point year-to-date, while industry sellout is roughly flat, suggesting consumers are extending the replacement cycle.

最近，我們聽說低端進口可能進一步放緩，但鑑於目前的政府停擺影響了進口報告，可能需要更多時間才能證實這一趨勢。從宏觀層面來看，美國汽車行駛里程今年迄今呈上升趨勢，增幅約為 1 個百分點，而產業銷售情況大致持平，這表明消費者正在延長更換週期。

Meanwhile, dealer and distributor channel inventories remain elevated with prebuy, and we expect the consumer replacement environment to stay challenging in the near term. Our focus in that environment has been on introducing new high-margin product lines, the 18 and above rim size and targeted product line extensions to drive our earnings in the coming year. In October, we've revitalized our all-terrain product portfolio with the launch of three new product lines that were designed for SUV, light truck and off-road applications.

同時，由於預購，經銷商和分銷管道的庫存仍然居高不下，我們預期消費者更換環境在短期內仍將充滿挑戰。在這種環境下，我們的重點是推出新的高利潤產品線、18 吋及以上輪圈尺寸以及有針對性的產品線擴展，以推動我們來年的利潤。10 月，我們推出了三條全新的產品線，為 SUV、輕型卡車和越野應用場景重新啟動了我們的全地形產品組合。

The new lineup includes the Goodyear Wrangler Outbound AT, Goodyear Wrangler Workhorse AT2 and the Goodyear Wrangler ElectricDrive AT. We've also finalized our famous Goodyear Eagle F1 lines with our new All-Season Tire for the high-performance segment as well. Our products are absolutely second to none, and the consumer feedback during launch events has been exceptionally strong. We're also better aligning distribution and retailer partnerships to ensure priority availability and service for our most profitable products.

全新產品陣容包括固特異 Wrangler Outbound AT、固特異 Wrangler Workhorse AT2 和固特異 Wrangler ElectricDrive AT。我們也完善了著名的固特異 Eagle F1 系列產品線，並推出了面向高性能市場的全新全季輪胎。我們的產品絕對一流，在產品發布活動中也獲得了消費者的絕佳回饋。我們也在更好地協調分銷和零售商合作關係，以確保我們最賺錢的產品能夠優先獲得供應和服務。

In our company-owned retail stores, we are upgrading the store and the customer experience through multiple enhancements, including the addition of more products, more financing options and a complete refresh of the environment in select locations around the country. As I've mentioned previously, we've been able to achieve meaningful earnings growth in our retail business over the past year, through increasing same-store service revenues and through the addition of new last mile mega fleet business.

在我們公司自營的零售店中，我們正在透過多項改進措施來提升商店和顧客體驗，包括增加更多產品、更多融資選擇以及在全國部分地區對環境進行全面翻新。正如我之前提到的，過去一年，我們透過提高同店服務收入和新增最後一公里大型車隊業務，實現了零售業務的顯著獲利成長。

With this proven success in our existing footprint, we plan to open a slate of new brick-and-mortar store fronts in the coming quarters. Strengthening our retail footprint will help our retail business be even more of a differentiator for us in the future. Conditions in the Americas truck business were similar to the second quarter. Heavy truck builds in the US declined over 30% as OEMs adjusted production amid reduced end market demand, driven by the uncertainty over EPA emissions mandates.

鑑於我們在現有業務領域的成功，我們計劃在接下來的幾季開設一系列新的實體店面。加強我們的零售佈局將有助於我們的零售業務在未來成為我們更具差異化的優勢。美洲卡車業務狀況與第二季類似。由於美國環保署排放規定的不確定性導致終端市場需求下降，整車製造商調整生產，美國重型卡車產量下降了 30% 以上。

In the replacement, imports remained elevated during the third quarter as the commercial tire IEEPA tariffs were implemented in August. As we finish the year, we expect fourth quarter industry conditions in the US to broadly reflect the same dynamics as the third quarter with elevated channel inventories and potential for some incremental reductions in OE volume, given multiple OEM customer supply chain challenges. We continue to expect momentum to return as we work through some of the transitory headwinds we're seeing today.

在替換過程中，由於商用輪胎 IEEPA 關稅在 8 月實施，第三季進口量仍居高不下。隨著年底臨近，我們預計美國第四季的產業狀況將大致反映出與第三季相同的動態，通路庫存較高，並且由於多個 OEM 客戶供應鏈面臨挑戰，OE 產量可能會略有下降。我們預計，隨著我們克服目前面臨的一些暫時性不利因素，成長動能將會恢復。

Let's turn to EMEA. Similar to the US dynamics, EMEA's consumer replacement industry was driven by a prebuy of imports ahead of the tariffs expected early next year. While domestic manufacturers lagged the industry, we reached an important milestone for our EMEA business. We returned the business to profitability following a weak first half. This improvement was driven by 20% growth in our consumer OE volume, representing more than 3 points of market share gain.

讓我們來看看歐洲、中東和非洲地區。與美國的情況類似，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的消費品更換產業也受到進口商品提前購買的推動，以應對預計明年初生效的關稅。儘管國內製造商落後於行業平均水平，但我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業務卻取得了重要的里程碑。經歷了上半年業績疲軟後，我們扭轉了公司獲利局面。這項改善主要得益於我們消費品原廠配套產品銷售成長了 20%，市佔率提升超過 3 個百分點。

At the same time, OE profit per tire in EMEA is increasing, so we are making the right choices with our OE partners as well. Our OE portfolio is a testament to our industry-leading tech as well as our product performance. We also completed two major factory restructuring actions in the region during the quarter, which strengthens the foundation for continued operational performance in EMEA.

同時，EMEA 地區的 OE 每條輪胎利潤也在成長，因此我們與 OE 合作夥伴的選擇也是正確的。我們的原廠配套產品組合證明了我們領先業界的技術以及產品性能。本季度，我們也在該地區完成了兩項重大的工廠重組行動，這為歐洲、中東和非洲地區的持續營運表現奠定了堅實的基礎。

Looking ahead, our winter order book and channel inventories are healthy, and we are optimistic as we think about EMEA's earnings potential in the fourth quarter.

展望未來，我們的冬季訂單和通路庫存狀況良好，我們對 EMEA 第四季的獲利潛力持樂觀態度。

Turning to Asia Pacific. Execution and SOI margin remained strong. Over the course of this year, we've exited less profitable SKUs and continue to increase our mix of high-margin product lines in the region. In the third quarter, we outpaced the consumer replacement industry as far as growth in our Goodyear brand, 18 and above rim sizes in China.

轉向亞太地區。執行力和SOI利潤率依然強勁。今年以來，我們逐步淘汰了利潤較低的 SKU，並繼續增加該地區高利潤產品線的比例。第三季度，我們在中國市場18吋以上輪圈尺寸的固特異品牌輪胎的成長速度超過了消費品更換產業。

As our recent OE fitment wins with Geely, VW and Toyota ramp through the fourth quarter, we expect to return year-over-year OE growth and further improve SOI and margin from today's levels. Before closing, I'd like to add that even with the uneven market backdrop, our steady and consistent execution of our Goodyear Forward Plan has been even more important for us to position the business for near-term stability as well as long-term success.

隨著我們近期與吉利、大眾和豐田的 OE 組裝業務在第四季度逐步推進，我們預計將恢復 OE 業務的同比增長，並進一步提高 SOI 和利潤率。最後，我想補充一點，即使在市場環境不穩定的情況下，我們穩步持續地執行固特異發展計劃，對於我們實現業務的近期穩定和長期成功而言，顯得尤為重要。

I'd like again to acknowledge the efforts and the results of all of our associates around the world and thank them for what's been accomplished thus far. Goodyear Forward is much more than numbers on the sheet of paper. This program defines the evolution of the company and how we will continue to create value going forward.

我再次要對我們世界各地所有同事的努力和成果表示感謝，並感謝他們迄今為止所取得的成就。固特異前瞻計畫遠不止於紙面上的數字。該計劃定義了公司的發展方向以及我們未來將如何繼續創造價值。

With that, I'll turn it over to Christina.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給克莉絲蒂娜。

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results show lower costs with the benefit of Goodyear Forward and a significant reduction in debt. We are well positioned for growth as the broader economy strengthens in 2026. Pre-buy channel inventory tied to tariffs is depleted and the implementation of tariffs in the US and potentially in Europe, begins to reshape market dynamics in our favor.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早安。第三季業績顯示，得益於固特異前瞻計劃，成本降低，負債大幅減少。隨著整體經濟在 2026 年走強，我們已做好充分準備迎接成長。與關稅相關的預購通路庫存已經耗盡，美國以及可能還有歐洲實施關稅，開始重塑市場動態，使我們受益。

Turning to the financial results on slide 9. Third quarter sales were $4.6 billion, down 3.7% from last year, given lower volume and the sale of OTR, partly offset by price/mix improvements. Unit volume declined 6%, reflecting lower consumer replacement volume. Segment operating income was $287 million, decreasing from last year, but reflecting an increase of $128 million compared to the second quarter.

接下來請看第9頁的財務結果。第三季銷售額為 46 億美元，比去年同期下降 3.7%，原因是銷量下降以及 OTR 產品的銷售減少，但價格/產品組合的改善部分抵消了這一影響。單位銷售量下降了 6%，反映出消費者更換需求減少。分部營業收入為 2.87 億美元，較去年同期下降，但較第二季成長了 1.28 億美元。

Goodyear net loss of $2.2 billion was driven by non-cash non-recurring items including a deferred tax valuation allowance and a goodwill impairment in the Americas. The valuation allowance against our tax assets does not limit our ability to utilize them in the future. After adjusting for significant items, our earnings per share were $0.28 compared to $0.36 last year.

固特異淨虧損 22 億美元，主要原因是非現金非經常性項目，包括遞延所得稅估值準備和美洲地區的商譽減損。針對我們稅務資產的估值準備金不會限制我們未來使用這些資產的能力。在調整重大項目後，我們的每股收益為 0.28 美元，而去年同期為 0.36 美元。

Turning to the segment operating income walk on slide 10. The sale of the off-the-road business reduced earnings by $10 million. After this change in scope, our segment operating income declined $49 million versus last year. Lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of $90 million and price/mix was a benefit of $100 million, driven by our recent pricing actions and RMI contracts. Raw materials were a headwind of $81 million.

接下來，請看第 10 張投影片，了解分部營業收入狀況。出售非公路車輛業務使收益減少了 1000 萬美元。範圍變更後，我們部門的營業收入比去年減少了 4,900 萬美元。輪胎銷售和工廠利用率下降造成了 9000 萬美元的不利影響，而價格/產品組合則帶來了 1 億美元的好處，這主要得益於我們最近的定價措施和 RMI 合約。原材料成本造成了 8,100 萬美元的支出。

Goodyear Forward contributed $185 million of benefit during the quarter. Inflation and other costs were a headwind of $137 million. Other costs include approximately $40 million of tariffs, $25 million of manufacturing inefficiencies related to factory closures and lower production and $20 million of increased transportation and warehousing costs. The non-recurrence of insurance proceeds received last year was $17 million and other SOI was a headwind of $16 million.

固特異前瞻計畫在本季貢獻了 1.85 億美元的收益。通貨膨脹和其他成本造成了 1.37 億美元的不利影響。其他成本包括約 4000 萬美元的關稅、與工廠關閉和產量下降相關的 2500 萬美元的生產效率低下成本以及 2000 萬美元的運輸和倉儲成本增加成本。去年收到的保險賠償金中，非經常性損失為 1,700 萬美元，其他 SOI 也造成了 1,600 萬美元的損失。

Turning to the cash flow and balance sheet on slide 11. we Cash flow from operating activities was about flat for the quarter, including third quarter CapEx, free cash flow was a use of $181 million. As I mentioned last quarter, our year-to-date free cash flow includes a portion of the proceeds from asset sales, reflecting the value of long-term supply agreements and a prepaid for Dunlop inventory that will transfer at the end of the year. The remaining amount will be amortized into SOI over roughly six years.

翻到第 11 頁的現金流量表和資產負債表。本季經營活動產生的現金流量基本持平，包括第三季資本支出在內，自由現金流為 1.81 億美元。正如我上個季度提到的，我們今年的自由現金流包括一部分資產出售所得，反映了長期供應協議的價值以及將在年底轉移的鄧祿普預付庫存。剩餘金額將在約六年內攤銷至 SOI。

We expect our year-end benefit in operating cash flow related to the various supply licensing and transition agreements to be approximately $370 million, inclusive of the chemical sale. Proforma for the chemicals transaction, our third quarter debt declined about $1.5 billion, which reflects asset sale proceeds net of fees, partly offset by cash used for working capital and restructuring over the last 12 months. We continue to expect to generate significant free cash flow in the fourth quarter, consistent with our historical seasonality.

我們預計，與各項供應許可和過渡協議相關的年末經營現金流收益約為 3.7 億美元，其中包括化學品銷售收入。考慮到化工交易的影響，我們第三季的債務減少了約 15 億美元，這反映了資產出售所得扣除費用後的淨額，但部分被過去 12 個月用於營運資金和重組的現金所抵消。我們仍預期第四季將產生可觀的自由現金流，這與我們以往的季節性規律一致。

Moving to the SBU results on slide 13. Americas unit volume decreased 6.5%, driven by consumer replacement. US consumer replacement industry sell-in was down 4% during the quarter, with industry members declining and low-end imports up 2%. Importantly, year-over-year growth in imports has slowed from both Q1 and Q2. Our Americas consumer OE volume grew 4%, reflecting industry recovery in the US, where we continued to outperform the industry in our share of fitments.

接下來是第 13 頁的 SBU 結果。受消費者更換產品的影響，美洲地區的銷售量下降了 6.5%。本季美國消費品替換產業的銷售額下降了 4%，其中產業成員數量減少，低端進口產品數量增加了 2%。值得注意的是，進口額年增率較第一季和第二季均放緩。我們在美洲的消費品原廠配套銷量成長了 4%，反映了美國產業的復甦，我們在美國的配件市佔率持續優於產業平均。

Q3 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of OE share gains in the Americas. Americas commercial OE volume declined 33% as OEMs decreased production given continued weakness in freight market conditions and uncertainties surrounding the implementation of 2027 EPA mandates. The US commercial replacement industry saw non-member import growth of 64% during the quarter, just ahead of August effective date for IEEPA tariff implementation. Americas segment operating income was $206 million, a decrease of $45 million compared to last year, driven by lower volume and partly offset by Goodyear Forward benefits.

第三季是美洲地區OE市場佔有率連續第七個季度成長。由於貨運市場狀況持續疲軟以及 2027 年 EPA 強制令實施的不確定性，OEM 減少了產量，導緻美洲商業 OE 銷量下降了 33%。在 IEEPA 關稅實施生效日期 8 月之前，美國商業替換產業在本季非成員國進口成長了 64%。美洲業務部門的營業收入為 2.06 億美元，比去年減少了 4,500 萬美元，主要原因是銷售量下降，部分被 Goodyear Forward 的收益所抵銷。

Turning to slide 14. EMEA's third quarter unit volume decreased 2%, driven by declines in replacement volume given pre-buy of low-end imports in the EU. We expect the EU to make its final tariff determination early next year. As a reminder, proposed tariff rates are 41% to 104%, and we expect that the tariffs may be applied retroactively through the end of October.

翻到第14張投影片。受歐盟低端進口產品預購導致替代銷量下降的影響，EMEA 第三季銷量下降了 2%。我們預計歐盟將於明年初做出最終關稅決定。再次提醒，擬議的關稅稅率為 41% 至 104%，我們預計這些關稅可能會追溯至 10 月底。

During the third quarter, we announced the relaunch of the Cooper brand in EMEA to fulfill customer demand following the sale of Dunlop. The availability of the Cooper brand across our regional network will ensure our portfolio provides a comprehensive and competitive offering.

第三季度，我們宣佈在歐洲、中東和非洲地區重新推出 Cooper 品牌，以滿足 Dunlop 出售後客戶的需求。Cooper品牌在我們區域網路中的普及將確保我們的產品組合提供全面且具競爭力的產品。

EMEA's consumer OE continued to be a bright spot, where volumes grew 20%, reflecting continued OE share gains. Like in the Americas, this is the seventh consecutive quarter of OE share gains in EMEA. Segment operating income was $30 million for the region, up $7 million, driven by price/mix benefits.

EMEA 的消費性電子原廠配件市場持續保持強勁勢頭，銷量成長 20%，反映出原廠配件市場份額的持續成長。與美洲的情況類似，這是歐洲、中東和非洲地區 OE 市場份額連續第七個季度增長。該地區分部營業收入為 3,000 萬美元，比上年增長 700 萬美元，主要得益於價格/產品組合優勢。

Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 15. Third quarter unit volume decreased 9%, driven by consumer OE and replacement volume. Lower consumer replacement volume was driven by actions we've taken to reduce low-margin business and realign our distribution and retail strategy in the region. OE volume was lower, given our customer mix with aggressive new car promotions in China, mostly supporting opening price point vehicles.

第 15 頁，我們將轉向亞太地區。第三季銷售量下降 9%，主要受消費者 OE 和更換銷售的影響。消費者更換量下降是由於我們採取措施減少低利潤業務，並調整我們在該地區的經銷和零售策略。由於我們在中國積極開展新車促銷活動，主要支援入門車型，因此OE銷量有所下降。

Segment operating income was $51 million and over 10% of sales. As Mark mentioned earlier, for Asia Pacific, we expect to return to volume growth during the fourth quarter, driven by the ramp-up of new fitments and higher replacement volume.

該部門營業收入為 5,100 萬美元，佔銷售額的 10% 以上。正如馬克之前提到的，我們預計亞太地區將在第四季度恢復銷售成長，這主要得益於新配件的增加和更高的更換量。

Turning to our fourth quarter outlook on slide 17. We expect a meaningful sequential increase in SOI in the fourth quarter, with all regions contributing to the step-up in earnings. And on a year-over-year basis, we expect Q4 SOI growth in the mid-single-digit range, excluding the impact of this year's divestitures.

接下來請看第 17 頁投影片，了解我們的第四季展望。我們預計第四季度 SOI 將出現顯著的環比成長，所有地區都將為獲利的成長做出貢獻。如果不計今年資產剝離的影響，我們預期第四季SOI年增將達到個位數中段。

In consumer, we expect replacement volume to be impacted by high channel inventories in the US and EU. Consumer OE volume growth is expected to be consistent with the third quarter. Our expectation for commercial truck volume is extremely modest, given ongoing industry challenges. Overall, we expect global volume to be down about 4%.

在消費領域，我們預期美國和歐盟的高通路庫存將影響換貨量。預計消費性OE銷售成長將與第三季保持一致。鑑於該行業面臨的持續挑戰，我們對商用卡車銷售的預期非常保守。總體而言，我們預計全球銷量將下降約 4%。

In addition, we expect higher unabsorbed fixed costs of $70 million, reflecting lower production volume of 2 million units in the third quarter. In addition, with the industry volatility we've experienced this year, we expect our fourth quarter production to be as much as 4 million units lower than last year.

此外，我們預計未吸收的固定成本將增加 7,000 萬美元，這反映出第三季產量下降了 200 萬台。此外，由於今年產業波動較大，我們預計第四季產量將比去年減少多達 400 萬台。

Fourth quarter price mix is expected to be a benefit of approximately $135 million, driven by pricing actions taken earlier in 2025. Raw material costs will be a slight benefit, given current spot rates and Goodyear Forward will drive benefits of approximately $180 million during the quarter.

預計第四季價格組合將帶來約 1.35 億美元的收益，這主要得益於 2025 年初採取的價格措施。鑑於目前的現貨價格，原物料成本將略有下降，而固特異遠期合約將在本季帶來約 1.8 億美元的收益。

Inflation, tariffs and other costs are expected to be a headwind of approximately $190 million in the quarter, reflecting higher costs given US tariff impacts and a global inflation rate of about 3%. This amount includes tariff costs of approximately $80 million and above average increases in freight rates and increased manufacturing inefficiencies related to lower production.

通貨膨脹、關稅和其他成本預計將在本季度造成約 1.9 億美元的不利影響，反映出由於美國關稅的影響和約 3% 的全球通貨膨脹率而導致的成本上升。該金額包括約 8000 萬美元的關稅成本，以及高於平均水平的運費上漲和與產量下降相關的製造效率低下增加。

Based on rates in effect today, our annualized tariff costs are expected to be approximately $300 million, which is $50 million lower than we cited last quarter as Canada eliminated tariffs on imports coming in from the US effective September 1.

根據目前生效的稅率，我們預計年度關稅成本約為 3 億美元，比上季公佈的數字低 5,000 萬美元，因為加拿大從 9 月 1 日起取消了對美國進口商品的關稅。

We continue to expect proceeds from business interruption insurance related to our fire at our factory in Poland in late 2023. This benefit should mostly offset the non-recurrence of $52 million of insurance proceeds received last year. And finally, the sales of OTR and chemical will be a headwind of approximately $30 million in the fourth quarter.

我們仍然期待從與我們波蘭工廠在 2023 年底發生的火災相關的營業中斷保險中獲得賠償。這項收益應該可以基本抵銷去年收到的 5,200 萬美元保險賠償金無法再次到達的影響。最後，OTR 和化學品的銷售額將在第四季度造成約 3,000 萬美元的不利影響。

Turning to slide 18. Our other financial assumptions include some puts and takes, including an update to our assumption for 2025 working capital, given second half volume and an increase in restructuring given a new Q4 program. With all of the work we've done to improve the balance sheet this year, we are focused on driving strong free cash flow through the end of the fourth quarter.

翻到第18張幻燈片。我們的其他財務假設包括一些調整和變化，包括更新我們對 2025 年營運資本的假設，因為下半年銷售增加，以及由於新的第四季度計劃而導致的重組增加。今年我們為改善資產負債表做了很多工作，現在我們專注於在第四季度末實現強勁的自由現金流。

Finally, as a reminder, the $2.2 billion in proceeds from asset sales will be reduced by fees and taxes. We previously guided total transaction fees including indirect fees related to carve-out administration as well as taxes at approximately $200 million, the majority of which will be paid this year. These costs will be included in operating cash flow.

最後提醒一下，資產出售所得的 22 億美元將扣除費用和稅金。我們先前預計，包括與分拆管理相關的間接費用以及稅款在內的總交易費用約為 2 億美元，其中大部分將在今年支付。這些成本將計入經營現金流。

So as you think about how to account for asset sales and your modeling on our cash flow statement, we expect cash flow from investing activities to reflect proceeds of approximately $1.9 billion, and cash flow from operating activities to reflect $370 million of proceeds that will be amortized into SOI over roughly six years, offset by up to $200 million in fees.

因此，當您考慮如何核算資產出售以及在我們的現金流量表上進行建模時，我們預計投資活動產生的現金流量將反映約 19 億美元的收益，經營活動產生的現金流量將反映 3.7 億美元的收益，這些收益將在大約六年內攤銷到 SOI 中，並被高達 2 億美元的費用抵消。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

接下來，我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli，TD Cowen。

First question, just on some of the consumer OE market share gains that you've been reporting. I'm just curious how we should think about that going forward? To what extent is it just a function of prior wins? And do you sort of have a view on kind of how your OE volume may track just relative to the industry going forward?

第一個問題，是關於您報告的一些消費者OE市場佔有率成長。我只是好奇我們今後該如何看待這個問題？這在多大程度上僅僅是先前勝利的結果？那麼，您對貴公司OE銷售未來相對於產業整體的發展趨勢有何看法？

No. Thanks, Itay. As we look at it, OE has been one of the key focus areas since I joined the company and we looked across -- actually across the world and what was our current percentages of OE versus replacement. And so there was definitely an opportunity for us to move up in that and create that nice pull-through on those first and second replacement cycles. We had not had enough exposure to the premium, larger rim sizes. And the very best way for us to affect that change in a fast manner is through the enhanced OEM partnerships.

不。謝謝，伊泰。從我們的角度來看，自從我加入公司以來，OE 一直是我們重點關注的領域之一。我們放眼全球，檢視了我們目前 OE 與替換的百分比。因此，我們絕對有機會在這方面取得進步，並在第一和第二個更換週期中創造良好的成長動能。我們之前對高端、大尺寸輪圈的接觸不夠多。而我們實現這項快速變革的最佳途徑就是加強與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的合作關係。

And it absolutely is about more premium pricing, larger sizes, larger margins. We know we can get out there and win with OE. We've been really pleased. As Christina mentioned, we've got seven quarters in a row of growth in both the Americas and in EMEA on that consumer OE business. And as we look to the partnerships that we've gotten with our strategic OEMs around the world continues to get stronger on the technology road map as well as winning on the right fitments and the right platforms around the world.

這絕對意味著更高的定價、更大的尺寸和更高的利潤。我們知道憑藉 OE，我們可以出去贏得比賽。我們非常滿意。正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的，我們在美洲和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的消費品OE業務已經連續七個季度實現成長。展望未來，我們與全球戰略 OEM 廠商的合作關係將持續加強，在技術路線圖上不斷進步，並在全球贏得合適的配件和平台。

The other piece as I mentioned in my opening part of the session, we've definitely seen a preference from the OEs in the Americas, specifically around the USMCA compliant. And so we've seen some nice tailwinds coming forward with that as well.

正如我在會議開場部分提到的，另一點是，我們已經明顯看到美洲的原始設備製造商（OEM）對符合美墨加協定（USMCA）的產品有所偏好。因此，我們也看到這方面出現了一些不錯的順風。

Terrific. That's great to hear. And just secondly, I appreciate the detail on the Q4 kind of SOI drivers. I was hoping we could talk a little bit about 2026 puts and takes particularly around kind of price mix and raws, and what that might look like at the current study state as well as any kind of early thoughts on some of the other cost movements we should kind of just be thinking about in our models for next year?

了不起。聽到這個消息真是太好了。其次，我很欣賞關於 Q4 型 SOI 驅動器的詳細資訊。我希望我們能稍微談談 2026 年的看跌期權和看漲期權，特別是關於價格組合和原材料方面，以及在目前的研究狀態下這些期權和原材料可能呈現什麼樣子，以及對於我們明年模型中應該考慮的其他一些成本變動，有什麼初步的想法嗎？

So we'll be able to be a lot more specific on 2026 on our conference call in February, but we do know a handful of factors based on our Goodyear Forward programs and as you mentioned, based on where current rates are today. So as we think about SOI, I'd say Goodyear Forward carryover cost benefits should be at least $250 million. Of course, we're looking at all levers to pull ahead cost reduction.

因此，我們將在二月的電話會議上更具體地說明 2026 年的情況，但根據我們的固特異前瞻計畫以及您提到的當前利率，我們確實知道一些因素。因此，當我們考慮 SOI 時，我認為固特異未來結轉成本效益至少應為 2.5 億美元。當然，我們正在研究所有能夠降低成本的手段。

Flow-through pricing based on actions we've taken to date in the market will be around $100 million. That's before RMI indexed agreements kicking in next year, which will reduce that somewhat. Of course, Mark mentioned a lot of the new SKUs coming in. So we will continue to push price mix in a positive direction next year as well.

根據我們迄今為止在市場上採取的行動，流通定價將約為 1 億美元。這還不包括明年RMI指數協議生效之前的情況，屆時RMI指數協議將有所減少。當然，馬克也提到了許多即將到貨的新SKU。因此，明年我們將繼續推動價格結構朝著正面的方向發展。

Raws at current spot rates will be a benefit of $200 million, and that's inclusive of the chemical transaction, meaning the portion of internal supply that moves external is now included in our raw material base. But even with that headwind, raws should be a benefit of $200 million. And then inflation typically sits around on our cost base, $200 million to $225 million of headwind.

以當前現貨價格計算，原材料將帶來 2 億美元的收益，其中包括化學品交易，這意味著流向外部的內部供應部分現在已納入我們的原材料基礎。但即便麵臨這樣的不利因素，生鮮食品仍應帶來 2 億美元的收益。然後通貨膨脹通常會對我們的成本基礎造成 2 億至 2.25 億美元的不利影響。

I'd also expect tariff carryover costs at current rates. Of course, a lot is moving around, but tariff carryover in the range of $150 million to $160 million next year. And then we have an insurance collection we're expecting in the fourth quarter, which we would have a non-repeat.

我還預計會按當前稅率產生關稅結轉成本。當然，很多因素都在變化，但明年的關稅結轉額預計在 1.5 億美元到 1.6 億美元之間。此外，我們預期第四季會有一筆保險收款，這筆收款將不會重複發生。

I think that gives you most of the puts and takes, excluding the asset divestitures, which there are different impacts from most notably, EMEA will have a headwind related to the sale of Dunlop in the range of $65 million. Reduction in our earnings related to chemical is going to be about $35 million plus some stranded overhead of about $15 million.

我認為這涵蓋了大部分的買賣情況，不包括資產剝離，資產剝離的影響各不相同，最值得注意的是，歐洲、中東和非洲地區將面臨與鄧祿普出售相關的不利因素，金額約為 6500 萬美元。與化學業務相關的收益將減少約 3,500 萬美元，外加約 1,500 萬美元的擱淺管理費用。

Now all of that will be partly offset by amortization of that $370 million that we talked about earlier in the prepared remarks, that should be a benefit of about $60 million next year. So a lot of puts and takes, a lot of reasons to believe that we have some tailwinds that we'll be able to capitalize on in 2026.

現在，所有這些損失都將部分被我們先前在準備好的演講稿中提到的 3.7 億美元的攤銷所抵消，明年應該會帶來約 6,000 萬美元的收益。所以有很多利弊權衡，也有很多理由相信我們在 2026 年會有一些順風，我們可以利用這些順風來獲利。

James Mulholland, Deutsche Bank.

詹姆斯·穆赫蘭，德意志銀行。

I was wondering if you could give us an update on the commercial vehicle environment and whether you've seen any kind of improvement or stabilization? In the deck, you mentioned that US commercial replacement was up, but it was driven pretty much entirely by low-cost imports. So I guess the question is, is the similar dynamic playing out there as in light vehicle for the last few years where low-cost imports are coming in, they're taking significant share. And would I guess, you expect that to eventually put margins on commercial vehicle, which has traditionally been very strong?

我想請您介紹一下商用車市場的最新情況，以及您是否看到任何改善或穩定跡象？在簡報中，你提到美國商業替換率上升了，但這幾乎完全是由低成本進口產品推動的。所以我想問的是，過去幾年輕型汽車市場是否也出現了類似的動態，低成本進口車不斷湧入，佔據了相當大的市場份額。我猜您預計這最終會提高商用車的利潤率，而商用車的利潤率歷來都非常高？

Yes. Maybe I can start and then we'll turn it to Christina. When we think about the commercial PV, you're right, right? There has been some trade down, particularly with smaller fleets or the 1z or 2z types of ownership, if you will. Our overarching fleet business, though, remains very strong, right, in the subscription market that we have as well as our rollout of the tires-as-a-service that is a little bit ahead of schedule when it comes to Europe and it's just coming to the US market.

是的。或許我可以先開始，然後我們再交給克莉絲蒂娜。當我們考慮商業光伏發電時，你說得對，對吧？已經出現了一些降級趨勢，尤其是在規模較小的車隊或 1z 或 2z 類型的所有權方面。不過，我們的整體車隊業務依然非常強勁，尤其是在我們現有的訂閱市場以及我們在歐洲推出的輪胎即服務方面，我們的輪胎即服務計劃進展略微超前於預期，並且剛剛進入美國市場。

But we think about in '24 overall unit sales of about 11 million units, including OE and replacement in that commercial market, we continue to focus on premium fleet customers that really drive that pull-through through the OEs. But we have seen as well through the marketplace, the typical prebuy we would see on the emission changes, on engines, on the commercial truck world has been very low, right?

但我們認為，2024 年整體銷售量約為 1,100 萬台，包括商用市場的 OE 和替換產品，我們將繼續專注於真正推動 OE 銷售的高端車隊客戶。但我們也從市場上看到，在商用卡車領域，針對排放變化、引擎等方面的典型預購需求一直都很低，對吧？

And it's -- with the questions around the emissions and what is really happening with that. So a lot of the large fleets -- most of the large fleets have opted to extend the life of their current and some of the feedback we've gotten from customers that the cost of ownership for them at this moment is to hang on to those trucks that they have for an extra period of time, which in terms of our subscription modeling actually is okay for us for that side, right?

而且，還有關於排放以及排放究竟發生了什麼事的問題。因此，許多大型車隊——大多數大型車隊都選擇延長現有車輛的使用壽命，我們從客戶那裡得到的一些反饋是，他們目前的擁有成本是繼續使用現有卡車一段時間，就我們的訂閱模式而言，這對我們來說實際上是可以接受的，對吧？

But when we look at it over the last several years, peak margins were kind of high single digits during a 13.5 million to 14 million unit volume. And just given the current freight environment and this regulatory uncertainty I mentioned, it's been definitely a challenging marketplace for the entire industry globally, probably unprecedented, actually.

但回顧過去幾年，在 1,350 萬至 1,400 萬台的銷量下，利潤率高峰也只有個位數。鑑於當前的貨運環境和我提到的監管不確定性，對於全球整個產業來說，這絕對是一個充滿挑戰的市場，實際上可能是前所未見的。

Got it. Okay. So I guess my second question is, I was wondering if you could just double click, I guess, on the broader channel dynamics and what you're seeing. A few months ago, we were sitting here, we were talking about the eventual low-cost inventory digestion following that massive inflow that we saw around tariffs on, but it doesn't feel like that digestion is really materializing yet.

知道了。好的。所以我想問的第二個問題是，您能否雙擊一下，看看更廣泛的頻道動態以及您看到的內容。幾個月前，我們坐在這裡，討論著在關稅政策導致大量商品湧入之後，低成本庫存最終會如何消化，但感覺這種消化還沒有真正實現。

I know Christina said, we're probably going to see at least a little bit further before that starts to hit. Do we have any line of sight on when you think that might start to flow through? Or is that really going to be something that could be here for quite a bit longer?

我知道克莉絲蒂娜說過，我們可能至少還要再過一段時間才會感受到那種影響。我們能否預估一下您認為什麼時候會開始有水流通過？或者說，這種情況真的會持續相當長一段時間嗎？

Thanks for the question. I would say just given the fact that the US industry was negative in the third quarter, sellout continues to trend more positively. We're beginning to see some of the channel inventory sell-through at our -- with the current data that we have, we'd say that the remaining excess in the channels would take at least through the end of the fourth quarter to sell-through in consumer replacement.

謝謝你的提問。考慮到美國行業第三季表現不佳，我認為銷售情況將繼續呈現正面趨勢。我們開始看到一些通路庫存正在售罄——根據我們目前掌握的數據，我們認為通路中剩餘的庫存至少要到第四季末才能在消費者更換過程中售罄。

To your point a little earlier in commercial, there's just been this continued glut of prebuy in through the third quarter. And I think that will take longer on into Q1 of 2026. I think the commercial side of the business, as Mark was just mentioning, actually tends to see a significant portion of supply on a run rate basis coming from imports. And so over the longer term, I think commercial trends will be healthier, but we will need to work through the excess imports over the course of the next couple of quarters in commercial.

正如你前面在商業版塊提到的，第三季一直存在著預購過剩的情況。我認為這將持續到 2026 年第一季。我認為，正如馬克剛才提到的那樣，商業方面的業務實際上往往會發現，以正常速度計算，很大一部分供應來自進口。因此，從長遠來看，我認為商業趨勢會更加健康，但在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們需要解決商業領域進口過剩的問題。

Ross MacDonald, Citi.

羅斯麥克唐納，花旗銀行。

It's Ross MacDonald at Citi. Two questions for me. First one on EMEA. It looks like very strong OE performance. I know Itay already asked on this. But given the 20% volume growth in EMEA original equipment in 3Q, could you maybe just drill into if there's any specific platforms or products that are taking the lion's share of that volume growth? Or is this broad-based market share gains you're making in OE, it'd be very interesting, I think, to understand what's underlying that?

這是花旗銀行的羅斯麥克唐納。我有兩個問題。歐洲、中東和非洲地區首例。看起來性能非常出色，完全符合原廠標準。我知道Itay已經問過這個問題了。但鑑於 EMEA 地區第三季原始設備銷量成長了 20%，您能否深入分析一下，是否有任何特定平台或產品佔據了銷售成長的大部分份額？或者，這是您在 OE 領域取得的廣泛的市佔率成長嗎？我認為，了解背後的原因會非常有趣？

And then, Mark, you mentioned that the profit per tire in EMEA is improving. Could you just elaborate on how much of that reflects specifically the winter tire strength that you've called out in Europe versus how much of that improving profit per tire in EMEA should we reasonably expect to carry over into 2026. So that's my first question on EMEA.

馬克，你剛才提到歐洲、中東和非洲地區的輪胎單價正在提高。您能否詳細說明一下，其中有多少反映了您提到的歐洲冬季輪胎的強勁表現，又有多少歐洲、中東和非洲地區輪胎單價上漲的趨勢可以合理預期延續到 2026 年？這是我關於歐洲、中東和非洲地區的第一個問題。

And then secondly, I see in your Q4 indications, a comment around potential further rationalizations. Could you maybe elaborate on if there's a new plan that we should expect in the fourth quarter? Any details of what that might look like and if that's focused on any one particular region?

其次，我從你們第四季的業績報告中看到，你們提到了可能進一步進行合理化調整。您能否詳細說明一下第四季是否會有新的計畫？能否詳細說明一下具體形式，以及是否專注於某個特定地區？

Sure. So maybe just to start, I would say that to the first part of your question -- I think you got three in instead of two, Ross, by the way. But I don't know. No worries, all good. When you look at the EMEA market, it's actually broad. We have been moving up with the players.

當然。所以，首先我想說的是，對於你問題的第一部分——順便說一句，羅斯，我認為你填的是三個而不是兩個。但我不知道。別擔心，一切都好。當你觀察歐洲、中東和非洲市場時，你會發現它其實非常廣闊。我們一直在和球員們一起進步。

One of the differences that when we rolled into our longer-range planning coming into the start of '25, when we put David Anckaert in over our product tech and product planning road map in conjunction with Chris Helsel in engineering was really making sure that we've got the right relationships, the right OEM strategies and the right technological partnerships with those OEs.

2025 年初，我們開始進行更長期的規劃，其中一項不同之處在於，我們讓 David Anckaert 負責我們的產品技術和產品規劃路線圖，並與工程部的 Chris Helsel 合作，真正確保我們與這些原始設備製造商 (OEM) 建立了正確的關係、正確的 OEM 戰略和正確的技術合作夥伴關係。

And again, we're seeing the benefit of that on the go forward. But in the here and now, as well as we look at some of the OEMs coming back stronger in EMEA that we're actually on some really good fitments broad-based across Europe, which is why I think you see that 7 quarters of growth in EMEA on the consumer OE as well as it's a conscious decision as well, right?

而且，我們越來越看到這樣做的好處。但就目前而言，我們看到一些 OEM 廠商在 EMEA 地區強勢回歸，實際上我們在歐洲各地都獲得了非常好的廣泛認可，這就是為什麼我認為你會看到 EMEA 地區的消費 OEM 連續 7 個季度增長，這也是一個深思熟慮的決定，對吧？

We are continuing, as we mentioned, not only in Americas but around the world as we globalize our product development to fill the blank spaces with premium product. And specifically, the larger rim sizes and we're deprecating the SKUs that are lower margin that we don't make money on. And so we're seeing a partial lift from that as well as the new SKUs coming in and also some of the OEs coming back in the second half.

正如我們之前提到的，我們不僅在美洲，而且在世界各地繼續推動產品開發全球化，以優質產品填補市場空白。具體來說，我們將淘汰較大尺寸的輪輞，並且我們正在淘汰利潤較低、不盈利的 SKU。因此，我們看到，隨著新 SKU 的推出以及一些 OEM 在下半年回歸，銷量有所回升。

But as well, you are right. The second half and the winter mix, we've been really pleased with our order performance from our customers on the winter mix as well. So all of those are looking good.

但你的說法也有道理。下半年和冬季混合裝的訂單表現也讓我們非常滿意，顧客對冬季混合裝的訂單表現同樣令人滿意。所以，所有這些看起來都不錯。

On the second piece, the rationalizations, we've completed basically, call it, 4.5, I think, is the right way to say that, three in EMEA, one in Asia and a significant restructuring in one of the US plants to really focus from that side of it. So all of those actions are on track as we committed to the Goodyear Forward Plan and the restructuring activities.

關於第二部分，即合理化，我們基本上已經完成了，我認為應該說是 4.5 項，其中 3 項在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，1 項在亞洲，還有一項在美國工廠進行的重大重組，以便真正從那個方面集中精力。因此，正如我們承諾的那樣，固特異向前發展計劃和重組活動都在按計劃進行。

As we get into quarter 4 and get ready really as we go to probably the February results as we come and share that with you all, we're continuing to top off and refill our Goodyear Forward as we look to a 2.0, and it's just embedded in our DNA of how we're running the business, and we continue to look and scan at what other things we do to move things from a fixed cost environment to a flex cost environment. So we're working very diligently with that around the world.

隨著我們進入第四季度，並真正為二月份的業績發布做好準備，屆時我們將與大家分享業績。我們將繼續完善並補充我們的“固特異前瞻計畫”，以期邁向2.0時代。這已經深深融入我們經營業務的DNA中。我們將繼續審視和探索我們還能做些什麼，以將業務從固定成本環境轉變為彈性成本環境。所以我們正在世界各地非常努力地進行這方面的工作。

With respect to the guidance, the increase in the restructuring basket was for a new program in the US in the fourth quarter.

關於業績指引，重組資金池的增加是為了第四季在美國啟動一項新計畫。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

詹姆斯·皮卡里洛，法國巴黎銀行。

Just hoping to clarify the insurance collection in the fourth quarter. Is this a new item? Or was this always embedded in the full year outlook?

只是想弄清楚第四季的保險收款狀況。這是新品嗎？或者說，這原本就包含在全年展望中？

So James, we first brought up the insurance recovery in the fourth quarter on our second quarter conference call. So it's not new. We didn't have line of sight to it at the beginning of the year, however.

詹姆斯，我們在第二季電話會議上首次提到了第四季的保險賠償問題。所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。然而，年初的時候我們無法直接看到它。

Okay. And it's about $50 million or so.

好的。大約是5000萬美元左右。

Correct. Yes. That's related to business interruption from the Debica fire back in 2023, and we had called out about that amount as part of the disruption related to the fire.

正確的。是的。這與 2023 年 Debica 火災造成的業務中斷有關，我們當時也曾就這筆金額提出批評，作為與火災相關的業務中斷的一部分。

Understood. Okay. And then with tariffs at an annualized rate of $300 million, can you just help us better understand what drives the seasonality to this? Because the third quarter was a full clean quarter of all tariffs and only came in at $40 million. The second quarter was, I think, $10 million. Like what's implied for the fourth quarter? And then, yes, just help us understand the seasonality to this.

明白了。好的。此外，關稅年化收入高達 3 億美元，您能否幫助我們更了解造成這種季節性波動的原因？因為第三季所有關稅全部取消，實際到帳金額僅 4,000 萬美元。我認為第二季是 1000 萬美元。例如第四季會發生什麼事？然後，是的，請幫我們了解這其中的季節性因素。

So broadly, the seasonality should follow our volumes, which tend to be a little lower in the first half, particularly in the first quarter and then seasonally stronger in the second half of the year. What I would say about the third quarter tariff amount coming in right around $40 million, a little bit less than we had expected.

總的來說，季節性因素應該與我們的銷售量相符，銷售量在上半年往往略低，尤其是在第一季度，然後在下半年季節性地增強。關於第三季關稅金額，我想說的是，大約是 4000 萬美元，比我們預期的要少。

Some of that was a basketing issue as we look to pull tariffs out of raw materials. We overestimated the amount of tariffs for Q3 and underestimated raw materials, you can see it's a net there. Also, because of days inventory, lower volume in Q2, lower volume in Q3, tariff costs are little pushed into Q4.

其中一些問題與商品籃子有關，因為我們正在努力取消原料的關稅。我們高估了第三季的關稅金額，低估了原料成本，你可以看到這是淨收益。此外，由於庫存週轉天數、第二季銷售較低、第三季銷售量較低，關稅成本延至第四季。

So James, what I would say right now, based on rates we see today, fourth quarter tariff costs should be about $80 million. And then the flow-through into next year, looking around $160 million, mostly weighted to the first half. And so I'd say something on the order of $60 million to $65 million each in Q1 and Q2.

所以詹姆斯，根據我們目前看到的費率，我認為第四季度關稅成本應該在 8000 萬美元左右。然後，預計到明年將達到 1.6 億美元左右，其中大部分集中在上半年。因此，我估計第一季和第二季分別約為 6,000 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元。

Got it. If I could squeeze in one more. I appreciate that. In regards to the chemicals divestiture, I could see the guided $7 million of lost EBIT for the two months post-sale. Can you just clarify what the expected annualized impact is for that chemical sale? Because it sounds as though there is an involvement of the divestiture, and that will show up in a raw material headwind for next year. So just hoping to clarify what those external versus internal buckets look like.

知道了。如果我能再擠出一個就好了。我很感激。關於化學品業務剝離，我預計出售後兩個月將損失 700 萬美元的息稅前利潤。能否具體說明一下該項化學品銷售的預期年度影響為何？因為聽起來好像涉及資產剝離，而這將在明年原材料供應方面帶來不利影響。所以，我只是想弄清楚外部儲存桶和內部儲存桶分別是什麼樣子的。

Yes. No, that's right. So it's going to show in a couple of different baskets, part lost earnings in SOI, part increase in raw materials as we move to third-party sourcing. I think about this total impact of being something in the order of magnitude about $120 million all in.

是的。沒錯。因此，這將在幾個不同的方面有所體現，一部分是SOI的收益損失，一部分是隨著我們轉向第三方採購而增加的原材料成本。我認為總影響大約會達到 1.2 億美元。

Just the earnings, the lost earnings, James, will be about $45 million of a headwind on an annualized basis. You can think about doubling that. And the other portion would then show up in raw materials, maybe with some additional margin for our new supplier, and then stranded costs will be about $15 million in conjunction with the transaction. Of course, we're going to look to flex costs as part of our ongoing savings initiatives next year.

詹姆斯，光是收入損失，每年就會造成約 4500 萬美元的不利影響。你可以考慮把這個數字翻倍。另一部分則會體現在原料上，或許還會為我們的新供應商帶來一些額外的利潤，那麼與此交易相關的擱淺成本將約為 1,500 萬美元。當然，明年我們將把靈活成本控製作為我們持續節約成本計畫的一部分。

Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

Ryan Brinkman，摩根大通。

You've gotten the one about low-cost tire imports into the US, maybe a similar one, but about Europe. What I think can you provide there with regard to what you're seeing, with regard to potential tariffs that could be implemented in that market? And then as well as what might be happening with regard to the prebuy of those tires? Is it tracking any differently to what you saw in the US given the potential, I think, for tariffs to maybe be made retroactive to the date of the opening of the antidumping investigation?

你可能看過關於美國低價進口輪胎的報道，也可能看過類似的關於歐洲的報導。關於您觀察到的情況，以及可能在該市場實施的潛在關稅，您能提供些什麼資訊？那麼，關於這些輪胎的預購環節又會發生什麼事呢？考慮到關稅有可能追溯至反傾銷調查開始之日，這種情況與你在美國看到的情況有何不同？

Ryan, I would say what we're seeing in Europe feels a lot like the US just on a quarter or two lag because the tariff announcement came a little bit later. We have seen over the course of Q2 and on into Q3 a lot of prebuy of lower-end tire imports. And what this means is that our dealers and distributors are saving warehouse space and saving liquidity in order to stockpile these imports.

瑞安，我認為我們在歐洲看到的情況與美國的情況非常相似，只是落後了一兩個季度，因為關稅公告發布得晚了一些。在第二季度以及第三季度，我們看到了許多低端輪胎進口產品的預購。這意味著我們的經銷商和經銷商正在節省倉庫空間和流動資金，以便儲備這些進口商品。

I think as we look to the fourth quarter, not expecting so much of an impact. We do not see the same competitive dynamics necessarily on winter tires that we do in summer or all-season. I think we still would say that the EU consumers are very sensitive to making sure that their winter tires come with a very high quality and performance. Expect that it will take on into 2026 to sell through some of that all-season and summer prebuy because it's, again, not really for winter tire selling.

我認為展望第四季度，不會產生太大影響。冬季輪胎的競爭格局未必與夏季輪胎或全季輪胎相同。我認為我們仍然可以說，歐盟消費者非常重視確保他們的冬季輪胎具有非常高的品質和性能。預計要到 2026 年才能售出一些全季輪胎和夏季輪胎的預購訂單，因為這並非真正為了銷售冬季輪胎。

Okay. And on the look ahead, thank you for 2026. I heard Christina, I think you said $250 million of savings from Goodyear Forward. I mean, just looking at the numbers, from slide 6. It seems like with Goodyear Forward savings expected to be at an annualized run rate of $1,500 million by 4Q this year and with $750 million of SOI benefit in '25 on top of $480 million in '24. You should have like $270 million, I think, year-over-year benefit in '26 just from the anniversarying of what you've already accomplished without any incremental action required on your part. Is that the right way to think about that?

好的。展望未來，感謝大家陪伴我們度過2026年。我聽到克里斯蒂娜說，固特異「向前發展」計畫可以節省 2.5 億美元。我的意思是，看看幻燈片 6 中的數字。看來，到今年第四季度，固特異「向前發展」計畫的年化節省額預計將達到 15 億美元，而 2025 年 SOI 計畫的收益將達到 7.5 億美元，加上 2024 年的 4.8 億美元，總計將達到 4.5 億美元。我認為，僅憑你已經取得的成就，到 2026 年，你就能獲得大約 2.7 億美元的年度收益，而無需你採取任何額外的行動。這樣想對嗎？

And then because I heard Mark reference, I thought, 2.0, I think Goodyear Forward 2.0, I presume and Christina, did you say something about an incremental cost save program here in 4Q. So just curious if the overall cost saves could be maybe substantially greater than $250 million in '26 to help defray that $250 million -- or $200 million of inflation, general inflation headwind to help ensure that some of these savings go through to the SOI line?

然後，因為我聽到馬克提到了 2.0，我想應該是固特異 Forward 2.0，我猜是這樣。克里斯蒂娜，你有沒有提到第四季會有一個逐步降低成本的計畫？所以，我只是好奇，到 2026 年，總成本節省是否會遠超 2.5 億美元，以幫助抵消 2.5 億美元（或 2 億美元）的通貨膨脹，以及普遍的通貨膨脹逆風，從而確保部分節省能夠落實到 SOI 線？

Well, certainly, looking ahead, our goal is to make sure we're never done with self-help. And the $270 million flow-through is exactly the right number based on the math and the calculations for flow-through. And as I mentioned earlier, we're going to look to accelerate cost reduction into next year.

當然，展望未來，我們的目標是確保我們永遠不會停止自助。根據數學計算和流通額計算，2.7 億美元的流通額恰好是正確的數字。正如我之前提到的，我們計劃在明年加快降低成本。

I think we'll be able to share more about our plans as part of our February conference call for 2026. But as Mark has mentioned in the past, this is a lot about making cost savings, a lot about the way we work, making it part of the company's DNA and how we will position growth for the company going forward.

我認為我們可以在2月份的2026年電話會議上分享更多關於我們計劃的資訊。但正如馬克過去提到的那樣，這很大程度上是為了節省成本，很大程度上是為了改變我們的工作方式，使其成為公司DNA的一部分，以及我們將如何為公司未來的發展定位。

That's helpful. And just lastly, I know you said strong cash flow in the fourth quarter. You always have extremely strong cash flow in the fourth quarter. Is there any sort of way to dimension that or provide an update on the puts and takes, how you expect the full year to shake out in '25?

那很有幫助。最後，我知道您說過第四季現金流強勁。你們第四季的現金流總是非常強勁。有沒有辦法對此進行量化，或者提供關於買賣情況的最新信息，以及您預計 2025 年全年的情況會如何？

Sure. So if you're looking at the drivers of SOI, I think you should get to a level of about $370 million, $375 million in the fourth quarter. That should bring you inclusive of corporate costs and D&A to an EBITDA of about $1.8 billion. On the operating side, and our free cash flow drivers, there were several puts and takes, but everything we've laid out pretty much is a net. So on an operating basis, I would say free cash flow is about breakeven.

當然。所以，如果你要看SOI的驅動因素，我認為第四季應該可以達到3.7億美元到3.75億美元左右的水準。這樣一來，計入公司成本和折舊攤銷後，EBITDA 應該達到約 18 億美元。在營運方面，以及我們的自由現金流驅動因素方面，雖然有一些利弊權衡，但我們所列出的一切基本上都是淨收益。因此，從營運角度來看，我認為自由現金流基本上達到損益兩平點。

And then what we said as part of this call is that our asset sale fees, which we've indicated will be about $200 million are going to flow through operating cash flow this year. And so as you think about the geography, we should show cash flow from investing activities, proceeds from our asset sales of about $1.9 billion and then breakeven cash from operations excluding $200 million of fees that will also flow through there as well.

然後，我們在這次電話會議中提到，我們的資產出售費用（我們已表示約為 2 億美元）將在今年透過營運現金流流入。因此，在考慮地理位置時，我們應該展示投資活動的現金流量、資產出售所得的約 19 億美元，以及營運損益平衡現金流（不包括也將從中產生的 2 億美元費用）。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner，Wolfe Research。

I was actually hoping to pick it up right here, which is you were very helpful with the puts and takes -- early puts and takes of SOI into 2026. Just curious about how to think about the early puts and takes on the free cash flow compared to what you just described for 2025.

我其實希望就在這裡拿到它，因為你對SOI到2026年的早期買賣非常有​​幫助。我只是好奇，與您剛才描述的 2025 年的情況相比，如何看待早期對自由現金流的看跌和買入。

It sounded like, at least on an SOI basis, the expectation of modest growth this year when I quickly added your puts and takes. But anything to think of in terms of the free cash flow items. And in particular, that portion of the asset sales that flows into the cash flow from operations this year, would it be missing next year?

從SOI（股票價格指數）來看，我迅速添加了你的看跌期權和看漲期權，這似乎預示著今年將出現溫和增長。但任何與自由現金流項目相關的事情都需要考慮。特別是，今年流入經營活動現金流的部分資產出售收入，明年是否會消失？

So Emmanuel, on cash for 2026, we know that restructuring flow through from Goodyear Forward would be about $200 million to $250 million, so significantly less cash outlay than we saw in 2025. Also, interest expense will be a lot lower. Obviously, we've been doing a lot of hard work to get to the lower leverage, and we would expect net interest expense to fall in the range of $425 million. That's down about $100 million since the end of 2023 and since we first started Goodyear Forward. When I look at the amortization of the $370 million, I'd expect about $60 million beginning in 2026.

所以，伊曼紐爾，關於 2026 年的現金流，我們知道 Goodyear Forward 的重組收益約為 2 億至 2.5 億美元，因此比 2025 年的現金支出要少得多。此外，利息支出也會低得多。顯然，我們為降低槓桿率付出了很多努力，預計淨利息支出將降至 4.25 億美元左右。自 2023 年底以及我們首次啟動 Goodyear Forward 計畫以來，這一數字下降了約 1 億美元。從 3.7 億美元的攤銷情況來看，我預計從 2026 年開始，攤銷金額將達到約 6,000 萬美元。

Okay. And so I guess putting that all together compared to that breakeven on an operating basis that you're speaking about for 2025 directionally, where would that leave us for '26?

好的。所以，我想把所有這些因素綜合起來，與您所說的 2025 年營運損益平衡點相比，2026 年的情況會如何呢？

So Emmanuel, we'll be able to be a lot more specific as to our drivers of -- SOI drivers of free cash flow on our February conference call. We have volumes down in the second and third quarter also anticipating that in the fourth quarter, wanting to see some of this industry disruption work its way through the channels before we guide into next year.

所以，Emmanuel，我們將在二月的電話會議上更具體地說明我們自由現金流的驅動因素——SOI驅動因素。第二季和第三季銷量有所下降，預計第四季銷量也會下降，我們希望看到這種產業動盪的影響在明年給出業績指引之前能夠逐漸消退。

Understood. And then one question on tariff, please. So I appreciate all the color around the impact this year and sort of like the annualization into next year. Can you talk about -- is there any room for mitigation efforts in terms of either moving things around or just sourcing it differently? Just a quick update, please, on any way to sort of like reduce that load on a go-forward basis?

明白了。那麼，請問一個關於關稅的問題。所以我很欣賞今年各種影響的色彩，也喜歡延續到明年。您能否談談－在調整物資擺放位置或改變採購方式方面，是否有任何緩解措施的空間？請問能否簡單說明一下，今後是否有辦法減輕這方面的負擔？

Yes. So we're really working on it on all fronts on it when you think about Emmanuel from we're -- first of all, we're super active in D.C. on a regular basis, making sure that we've got our viewpoints and fact points in. And we've got really strong working relationships with the right folks in D.C. around that can help us on the right implementation of the tariffs and how to do that to have best foot forward for Goodyear and our strong US footprint.

是的。所以，當你想到伊曼紐爾時，我們確實在各個方面都努力著——首先，我們經常在華盛頓特區非常活躍，確保我們的觀點和事實要點都能被表達出來。我們與華盛頓特區的相關人士建立了非常牢固的工作關係，他們可以幫助我們正確實施關稅，並指導我們如何才能最好地推動固特異在美國的業務發展。

On the EMEA side as well, I think our lobbying efforts there also to the -- really the antidumping, I would call it, but really the tariff impact there. The teams have been working very hard with the EU on that. And cooperating with that aspect.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我認為我們的遊說努力也是為了——實際上，我稱之為反傾銷，但實際上是關稅的影響。各團隊一直在與歐盟就此進行非常努力的合作。並配合這方面的工作。

When it comes to the rest of your question, right, we absolutely -- it's one of the reasons we created and I did the move to get us set up under Don Metzelaar for global manufacturing. So that we can constantly be pulling and looking at best landed cost around the world. As we've shared on earlier calls, right, we continue the journey of moving from a cost center approach to a P&L approach at each of our factories around the world to make sure that we're flexing cost structures that we are absolutely the most competitive we can be.

至於你問題的其他部分，沒錯，我們絕對——這也是我們創建並採取這一舉措的原因之一，目的是讓我們在唐·梅策拉爾的領導下開展全球製造業務。這樣我們就可以不斷地在全球範圍內尋找和比較最佳的到岸成本。正如我們在先前的電話會議中分享的那樣，我們正在繼續推進從成本中心方法向損益表方法的轉變，在全球各地的工廠中推行這種方法，以確保我們能夠靈活調整成本結構，從而達到我們最具競爭力的水平。

And so as I mentioned before, I think we saw a lot of positive momentum and sourcing from OEMs in the US market, preferring that USMCA compliant footprint that takes effect going into next year and then in the coming years as well when we look at that sourcing of that preferential really more preferred to the USMCA side.

正如我之前提到的，我認為我們看到了來自美國市場的 OEM 廠商的積極勢頭和採購趨勢，他們更傾向於符合 USMCA 標準的佈局，該佈局將於明年生效，並在未來幾年繼續生效。當我們審視這種優惠採購時，我們發現他們確實更傾向於 USMCA 方面的採購。

So absolutely, we're doing all those things and relocating things to moving within the footprint to have the best landed cost in the region or in some cases, it is still shipping from other locations, but we try to preference for in the region for the region wherever possible.

所以，我們當然會做所有這些事情，並將業務轉移到現有佈局內，以獲得該地區最佳的落地成本；或者在某些情況下，仍然會從其他地方發貨，但我們會盡可能優先選擇該地區的供應商。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the meeting back to Mark Stewart for any final or closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給馬克·斯圖爾特，讓他作總結發言。

Thank you all for joining the call today. So that's a wrap for Christina and I, and I'm sure we'll have some other conversations with you guys over the course of the week. Clearly, while the short-term conditions have been pretty turbulent, right, with a lot of global trade volatility, but we are absolutely laser-focused on controlling the controllables, right? That is absolutely our mantra.

感謝各位今天參加電話會議。克里斯蒂娜和我今天的談話就到此結束了，我相信在接下來的一周裡，我們還會和大家進行一些其他的交流。顯然，雖然短期內情況相當動盪，全球貿易波動很大，但我們絕對專注於控制可控因素，對吧？這絕對是我們的宗旨。

It is about us continuing to drive the Goodyear Forward to conclusion and keep the pipeline refilled and making sure that we are staying absolutely on our toes and all of our folks around the world continue to implement and make sure that we're monitoring our costs.

這關係到我們繼續推進固特異前進計劃直至完成，保持生產線暢通，確保我們時刻保持警惕，確保我們世界各地的員工繼續執行並確保我們監控成本。

At the same time, making sure that we are being absolutely focused on bringing the new SKUs into the marketplace around the world of the higher rim size, the premium rim sizes and deprecating low-end volume in terms of the margin play.

同時，我們確保將全部精力集中在向全球市場推出更大尺寸輪圈、高端輪圈尺寸的新 SKU，並降低低端產品的銷量，以降低利潤率。

We've completed our planned divestitures. We've restored our balance sheet to health, and we for sure are driving sequential earnings growth through our cost actions as well as our share gains. Our OEM volume growth, as we've talked a lot about on the call today, outpacing our 18-inch and above around the world, particularly in China.

我們已完成計劃中的資產剝離。我們已經恢復了健康的資產負債表，我們肯定會透過成本控制措施和股價上漲來推動獲利環比成長。正如我們今天在電話會議上多次談到的那樣，我們的 OEM 銷售成長速度超過了我們在全球範圍內的 18 吋及以上尺寸產品，尤其是在中國。

And then we're really excited about the new Wrangler and the Eagle F1 launches here in the US marketplace and the strength of our winter tire orders in EMEA, as we mentioned. So we're sharpening the portfolio. We're expanding our retail operations, and we continue to position ourselves to leverage as the markets resume a normalcy. So thank you guys for joining today.

正如我們之前提到的，我們對新款 Wrangler 和 Eagle F1 在美國市場的上市感到非常興奮，同時我們也對 EMEA 地區的冬季輪胎訂單強勁增長感到欣喜。所以我們正在優化投資組合。我們正在擴大零售業務，並將繼續調整自身定位，以便在市場恢復正常時充分利用這一優勢。謝謝各位今天參與。

That brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您抽空參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。謝謝。