Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Good morning. My name is Margot and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After some opening remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Greg Shank, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早安.我叫瑪格特，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加固特異 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。所有線路均已靜音以防止任何背景噪音。一些開場白之後，將有一個問答環節。（操作員指示）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Greg Shank。請繼續。

Thank you, Margot. Good morning and welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Today on the call, we have Mark Stewart, our CEO and President, and Christina Zamaro, our Executive Vice President and CFO. During this call, we will refer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，瑪戈特。早安，歡迎參加我們 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有我們的執行長兼總裁馬克‧史都華 (Mark Stewart) 和我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜‧薩馬羅 (Christina Zamaro)。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述涉及風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

For more information on the most significant factors that could affect future results, please refer to slide 21 of the supporting presentation for today's call and our filings with the SEC. These materials can be found on our website at investor.goodyear.com, where a replay of this call will also be available.

有關可能影響未來結果的最重要因素的更多信息，請參閱今天電話會議的支持演示文稿第 21 張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。這些資料可以在我們的網站 investor.goodyear.com 上找到，該網站上也提供本次電話會議的重播。

A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call to the comparable GAAP measures is also included in the appendix of the presentation.

在今天的電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳也包含在簡報的附錄中。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. I'd like to begin today by thanking our associates, our customers, and all of our suppliers for helping us to deliver an outstanding year in 2024. As I'm sure you've seen in our release, we delivered fourth quarter segment operating income ahead of expectations, and alongside of it some exceptionally strong free cash flow relative to our past few years. It was a fitting end to the year marked by transformation as we set out to strengthen Goodyear's financial foundation and position the company for long-term success.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天，我首先要感謝我們的同事、客戶以及所有供應商，感謝他們幫助我們在 2024 年取得了卓越的成績。我相信您已經在我們的新聞稿中看到，我們第四季度的分部營業收入超出了預期，同時相對於過去幾年而言，我們的自由現金流異常強勁。這是一個完美的結局，為轉型之年畫上了圓滿的句號，我們著手加強固特異的財務基礎，為公司的長期成功做好準備。

Looking back over my first year with the company, I'm really energized by all we've accomplished across our organization, we put the emphasis and the full force of our talented team on Goodyear Forward. And together we executed nearly $500 million of transformation benefits through relentless program execution and follow through. It's a truly remarkable outcome given the program kicked off in November of 2023. To put this effort into perspective, we've now successfully delivered five consecutive quarters of margin expansion under our Good Year Forward plan.

回顧我在公司的第一年，我為我們整個組織所取得的成就感到無比振奮，我們將重點放在 Goodyear Forward 上，並集中我們優秀團隊的全部力量。透過堅持不懈的計劃執行和跟進，我們共同實現了近 5 億美元的轉型效益。考慮到該計劃於 2023 年 11 月啟動，這確實是一個了不起的成果。從這個角度來看，我們現在已經在我們的新年前進計劃下成功實現了連續五個季度的利潤率成長。

We accomplished this growth by exceeding our Goodyear Forward targets each and every quarter this past year. The end result is together we've generated a turnaround in our earnings with full year segment operating income growth of $350 million over $200 million excluding the benefits from the insurance recoveries.

這一成長是我們透過去年每季超額完成固特異前進目標而實現的。最終的結果是，我們共同實現了盈利好轉，全年分部營業收入增長 3.5 億美元，扣除保險追償收益外，額外增加 2 億美元。

2024 was the first year that Goodyear has grown segment operating income and margins since 2015, excluding the recovery year immediately following COVID. Our commitment to continued progress is clear throughout the entire company. We will continue to drive execution to unlock Goodyear's full potential as we move forward.

2024 年是固特異自 2015 年以來首次實現分部營業收入和利潤率成長的一年（不包括新冠疫情之後的復甦年）。我們對持續進步的承諾在整個公司都是明確的。我們將繼續推動執行，以釋放固特異的全部潛力。

In addition to our progress on earnings, we have also completed the divestiture of our OTR, the off the road business, and announced an agreement as well to sell the Dunlop brand, both part of our strategic review process. It's a clear demonstration that we're focused on delivering the plan and positioning the company for future growth.

除了在盈利方面取得進展之外，我們還完成了 OTR 越野車業務的剝離，並宣布了出售鄧祿普品牌的協議，這兩項都是我們戰略審查過程的一部分。這清楚地表明我們專注於實施計劃並為公司的未來發展做好準備。

As with all transformation, it hasn't come without some challenges. As we look at the top line this past year, we've seen growth in the low-end imports impacting the consumer replacement industry in the US, Europe, as well as Brazil. The inflows at the low end of the market over the last two years are unprecedented. Looking to the US market, low cost imported tires are largely sourced from Southeast Asia, including from a number of countries that are either not subject to anti-dumping or countervailing duty tariffs, or whether the production has been shifted to avoid the level of tariffs that the US has sought to impose in order to counteract unfair foreign subsidies in our industry.

正如所有轉型一樣，它也面臨一些挑戰。回顧過去一年的營收情況，我們發現低端進口產品的成長對美國、歐洲以及巴西的消費替代產業產生了影響。過去兩年低端市場的資金流入是前所未有的。放眼美國市場，低成本進口輪胎主要來自東南亞，其中包括一些不受反傾銷或反補貼關稅影響的國家，或者生產已轉移以避免美國為抵消我國行業不公平的外國補貼而試圖徵收的關稅。

It remains to be seen how the tariffs in our markets will evolve this year in 2025. The tier 1 tire manufacturers, including Goodyear, source our volumes from factories located in all three US MCA countries to support both the OE as well as the replacement customers in the US.

今年（2025年）我們的市場關稅將如何演變仍有待觀察。包括固特異在內的一級輪胎製造商均從位於美國三個 MCA 國家的工廠採購輪胎，以支援美國的 OE 客戶和替換客戶。

As you would all expect, we have been quite active in our discussions with government officials emphasizing the significance of Goodyear having the largest manufacturing footprint in the US, as well as the quality, the safety, and the technology that we bring to consumers with our products and our services right here in the US marketplace.

正如大家所期望的，我們積極地與政府官員進行討論，強調固特異在美國擁有最大製造基地的重要性，以及我們在美國市場上透過產品和服務為消費者帶來的品質、安全性和技術。

We look forward to continuing our collaborations with the leaders in Washington as we work to address these critical issues impacting our business. In the meantime, we're working across our operations to mitigate any potential near term impacts of tariffs related to our Canadian and Mexican supply. As the tariff situation may be fluid and will be fluid, we'll remain agile and execute efficiency.

我們期待繼續與華盛頓的領導人合作，努力解決影響我們業務的這些關鍵問題。同時，我們正在整個營運過程中努力減輕與加拿大和墨西哥供應相關的關稅可能帶來的任何短期影響。由於關稅情況可能會不斷變化，我們將保持靈活並有效執行。

We will also remain steadfast on our execution of the Goodyear Forward, which will bolster our top line and our cost performance with benefits of 750 million USD planned in 2025. This is continuing on the foundation that we executed in 2024 and will allow us to continue to push forward on several fronts this year. We're going to take advantage of the strategic moves we made in 2024 to advance new products, modernize our manufacturing footprint, enhance our sales effectiveness, and evolve our regional operational models.

我們也將堅定不移地執行固特異前進計劃，這將增強我們的營收和成本效益，計劃在 2025 年實現 7.5 億美元的收益。這是我們在 2024 年實施的基礎的延續，並將使我們能夠在今年多個方面繼續向前推進。我們將利用 2024 年採取的策略性措施來改善新產品、實現製造足跡的現代化、提高銷售效率並改善區域營運模式。

In the US, we will accelerate the introduction of new products to more effectively compete in the premium tiers and capitalize on blank space opportunities. In our last conference call, I shared how we will refresh our US portfolio of offerings while also increasing our coverage to a much broader spectrum of high-end, high margin SKUs. We will introduce five new product lines in the US this year, each with significant improvements in the large RIM SKU coverage than the predecessor lines.

在美國，我們將加快推出新產品，以便更有效地在高端市場競爭，並利用空白空間機會。在我們上次的電話會議中，我分享了我們將如何更新我們在美國的產品組合，同時將我們的覆蓋範圍擴大到更廣泛的高端、高利潤的SKU。我們今年將在美國推出五條新的產品線，每條產品線在 RIM SKU 覆蓋率方面都將比前代產品線有顯著提升。

On the manufacturing side, we're increasing our capabilities in our Oklahoma facility with a modernization project that will add about 10 million units of new capacity for premium tires in 2025 and 2026. We will ensure we're running at the optimal level of output and efficiency, and we're running the products that will yield the highest opportunities for profitability this year.

在製造方面，我們正在透過現代化項目提高俄克拉荷馬州工廠的產能，該項目將在 2025 年和 2026 年增加約 1000 萬條優質輪胎的新產能。我們將確保以最佳的產出和效率水準運行，並且我們運行的產品將在今年帶來最高的獲利機會。

As we look to our new portfolio in the market, we're also investing in our sales capabilities, both in strengthening our customer service through global digital platforms, as well as strengthening our overall value proposition for our customers, all with a clear objective to grow with the products our customers and consumers demand across the Goodyear family of brands. On the cost side, we're lowering our SG&A or SAG, and optimizing our manufacturing assets as we look at both footprint as well as plant optimization. In early January, we announced the addition of Don Metzelaar as our SVP of global manufacturing and supply chain, reporting directly to me.

當我們放眼市場上的新產品組合時，我們也在投資我們的銷售能力，既透過全球數位平台加強我們的客戶服務，也加強我們為客戶提出的整體價值主張，所有這些都有一個明確的目標，那就是隨著我們的客戶和消費者對固特異品牌系列產品的需求而共同成長。在成本方面，我們正在降低銷售、一般及行政開支或銷售費用（SAG），並在考慮佔地面積和工廠優化的同時優化我們的製造資產。1 月初，我們宣布任命 Don Metzelaar 為我們的全球製造和供應鏈資深副總裁，直接向我報告。

Don brings more than 30 years of experiencing, developing, transforming, and leading complex, multi-site, world-class manufacturing operations. He'll be instrumental in taking our global manufacturing capabilities to the next level. We have a significant opportunity as we look across our KPIs to drive both higher output and lower cost. In addition, Alan Conan* has joined our organization from our European manufacturing operation. Alan has many years with the company and a demonstrated strength in leading manufacturing. Alan is now leading our manufacturing in the Americas.

Don 擁有 30 多年的經驗，開發、改造和領導複雜、多站點、世界一流的製造業務。他將幫助我們將全球製造能力提升到新的水平。當我們審視我們的KPI時，我們有一個重大的機會來提高產量並降低成本。此外，來自我們歐洲製造業務的艾倫柯南 (Alan Conan)* 也加入了我們。艾倫 (Alan) 在該公司工作多年，在領導製造業方面擁有顯著的實力。艾倫現在領導我們在美洲的製造業務。

Don Metzelaar is one of six leaders I've added to the leadership team over this last year. These leadership changes have been crucial to our business transformation and creating a culture of high performance in the company. In addition, with the right leadership in place, we will capitalize on opportunities to streamline our operating model and address duplication of effort and excess costs that are inherently incur under our current decentralized structure model.

唐‧梅澤拉 (Don Metzelaar) 是我去年加入領導團隊的六位領導人之一。這些領導層的變動對於我們的業務轉型和在公司內創造高績效文化至關重要。此外，在正確的領導下，我們將利用機會簡化我們的營運模式，並解決當前分散結構模式下固有的重複勞動和過高成本問題。

Today we operate from within three regions, meaning each region manages their own product portfolio, their product development, sourcing, and manufacturing. By aligning our structure and process globally, we will be able to innovate and operate with speed around the world, leveraging the benefits of standardization, optimization, and our key assets, meaning our people around the world. This new structure will translate to better products, lower cost, better service and quicker refreshing of our products across the world. The transition will take some time, but the model is one that many companies are already leveraging and will shape the future of Goodyear as well.

今天我們在三個地區開展業務，這意味著每個地區管理自己的產品組合、產品開發、採購和製造。透過在全球範圍內協調我們的結構和流程，我們將能夠在全球範圍內快速創新和運營，利用標準化、優化和我們的關鍵資產（即我們在世界各地的員工）的優勢。這個新結構將為我們在全球範圍內提供更好的產品、更低的成本、更好的服務和更快的產品更新。轉型需要一些時間，但許多公司已經在採用這種模式，也將塑造固特異的未來。

Looking ahead, we will continue to prioritize Goodyear Forward and advance several strategic initiatives to ensure we're positioned for long-term growth for our shareholders. We successfully navigated a very challenging landscape in 2024, and our focus on discipline and execution will continue to support us as we work to further strengthen our financial and our operational foundation in the coming year.

展望未來，我們將繼續優先考慮固特異前進計畫並推動多項策略舉措，以確保我們為股東實現長期成長。2024 年，我們成功應對了極具挑戰性的情況，我們對紀律和執行的重視將繼續支持我們，在未來一年進一步加強我們的財務和營運基礎。

Next, I'll turn it over to Christina, and she'll take you through the financials and we'll move on to the Q&A.

接下來，我將把時間交給克里斯蒂娜，她將帶您了解財務狀況，然後我們進入問答環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Mark. 2024 was an important year for us as we've executed on our transformation plan while continuing to build our savings pipeline for 2025. We feel very good about where we stand with respect to our targets as we look at both the goal to attain 10% SOI margin in the fourth quarter and net leverage of 2 to 2.5 times by the end of the year.

謝謝你，馬克。 2024 年對我們來說是重要的一年，因為我們執行了轉型計劃，同時繼續為 2025 年建立儲蓄管道。我們對自己目前的目標感到非常滿意，因為我們的目標是在第四季度實現 10% 的 SOI 利潤率，並在年底前實現 2 至 2.5 倍的淨槓桿率。

I'll begin the year-end review with the income statement on slide 8. Fourth quarter sales totaled $4.9 billion, down 3% from last year, driven by lower volume.

我將從第 8 頁的損益表開始年終回顧。第四季銷售額總計 49 億美元，較去年同期下降 3%，原因是銷量下降。

Unit volume was 4% lower versus last year in line with our expectations given growth in low-end imports in the US. SAG declined $77 million driven by Goodyear Forward work streams. As a percentage sales, SAG declined 1 full point versus last year.

由於美國低端進口量成長，單位銷量較去年下降 4%，符合我們的預期。由於 Goodyear Forward 工作流程的推動，SAG 虧損 7,700 萬美元。以銷售額百分比計算，SAG 與去年相比下降了整整 1 個百分點。

Segment operating income for the quarter was $385 million and SOI margin increased to 7.8%. After adjusting for significant items, including the final settlement of an insurance claim related to storm damage we incurred in 2023, our earnings per share were $0.39.

本季分部營業收入為 3.85 億美元，SOI 利潤率增至 7.8%。在調整重大項目後，包括 2023 年發生的與風暴損害相關的保險索賠的最終結算，我們的每股收益為 0.39 美元。

Excluding insurance proceeds, SOI margin with 6.7%. Turning to the segment operating income walk on slide 9, lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of $81 million in the quarter.

不包括保險收益，SOI 利潤率為 6.7%。轉向第 9 頁投影片上的分部營業收入，輪胎單位產量和工廠利用率的下降是本季 8,100 萬美元的阻力。

Net price mix versus raw materials was unfavorable during the quarter, driven by increases in our raw material costs. Price mix was unfavorable $36 million. Now pricing was stable, but mix was negative, given declines in commercial replacement volume and an increase in our consumer OE volume. Continued strong execution on Goodyear Forward contributed $195 million against inflation that was $50 million in the quarter.

由於原物料成本增加，本季原物料的淨價格組合不利。價格組合不利，為 3600 萬美元。現在價格穩定，但由於商業替換量下降和消費者 OE 量增加，產品組合為負面。固特異前進計畫持續強勁執行，為抵禦通膨貢獻了 1.95 億美元，本季通膨率為 5,000 萬美元。

And as I referenced earlier, we collected $52 million of insurance proceeds in the final settlement related to our 2023 tornado claim. Other SOI was favorable $41 million driven by lower incentive compensation, the recovery from last year's fire at a factory in Poland, and higher earnings and other tire-related businesses.

正如我之前提到的，我們在與 2023 年龍捲風索賠相關的最終賠償中收取了 5,200 萬美元的保險收益。其他 SOI 有利，達到 4,100 萬美元，這得益於較低的激勵薪酬、去年波蘭工廠火災後的恢復以及更高的收益和其他輪胎相關業務。

Turning to the cash flow and balance sheet on slide 10, free cash flow exceeded $1 billion in the quarter driven by strong working capital inflows. As we shared in an earlier press release, we finalized the sale of OTR on February 3. Pro forma for that transaction, year-end net debt was $6.1 billion and our net leverage was 3 times, down nearly a full turn from year-end 2023.

看看第 10 頁的現金流和資產負債表，在強勁的營運資金流入的推動下，本季自由現金流超過了 10 億美元。正如我們在先前的新聞稿中所說，我們在 2 月 3 日完成了 OTR 的銷售。該交易的預測是，年底淨債務為 61 億美元，我們的淨槓桿率為 3 倍，比 2023 年底下降了近一倍。

We intend to repay the $500 million principal outstanding on our 9.5% notes later this month, and the remaining proceeds from the sale will reduce our variable rate debt. Together these actions should generate $70 million in annual interest expense savings.

我們打算在本月稍後償還 9.5% 票據的 5 億美元未償還本金，出售所得的剩餘收益將減少我們的浮動利率債務。這些措施加在一起每年可節省 7,000 萬美元的利息支出。

Finally, earlier in January, we announced a definitive agreement to sell the Dunlop brand to SRI. That transaction is expected to close mid-year and the related upfront proceeds of about $700 million will be used to further reduce our leverage in 2025. The strategic review of our chemicals business remains in process.

最後，今年 1 月初，我們宣布了將鄧祿普品牌出售給 SRI 的最終協議。該交易預計將於年中完成，相關的約 7 億美元的前期收益將用於在 2025 年進一步降低我們的槓桿率。我們的化學品業務的策略審查仍在進行中。

Moving to our SBU results and starting on slide 13, America's unit volume decreased about a million units driven by consumer replacement. As we look at the industry, the US consumer replacement industry declined about 2%. Low-end imports outperformed the industry and grew 11%, rising to an all-time high as a result of channel stocking and pre-buy activity related to potential tariffs.

轉到我們的 SBU 結果並從第 13 張投影片開始，由於消費者更換，美國的單位數量減少了約一百萬單位。縱觀產業，美國消費者替代產業下降了約2%。低端進口產品表現優於產業，成長11％，由於通路備貨和與潛在關稅相關的預購活動而升至歷史新高。

On the other hand, our US consumer OE volume grew approximately 20%, driven by new fitment winds and the recovery from last year's UAW strike, resulting in year-over-year share gains of approximately 4 points. Commercial OE and replacement volume declined following industry weakness.

另一方面，受新裝配風和去年 UAW 罷工後復甦的推動，我們美國消費者 OE 銷量增長了約 20%，導致市場份額同比增長了約 4 個百分點。由於行業疲軟，商業 OE 和替換品銷量下降。

Segment operating income for the Americas totaled $262 million or 9.1% of sales. America's earnings reflect the unfavorable net price mix versus raw material costs and lower volume, partly offset by Goodyear Forward benefits and insurance proceeds.

美洲分部營業收入總計 2.62 億美元，佔銷售額的 9.1%。美國的利潤反映了不利的淨價格組合與原材料成本以及較低的銷量，但被固特異前鋒福利和保險收益部分抵消。

Moving to slide 14, EMEA's fourth quarter unit volume increased 2%. Our volume reflects growth in the consumer replacement market driven by a strong winter tire selling season. The robust market was in part due to new regulations in Germany that require Three-Peak Mountain Snowflake labeling on both winter and off-season tires.

轉到第 14 張投影片，EMEA 第四季的單位銷售量成長了 2%。我們的銷售量反映了受冬季輪胎銷售旺季推動的消費者替換市場的成長。市場強勁成長的部分原因是德國推出了新法規，要求冬季輪胎和非季節性輪胎均需貼上三峰山雪花標籤。

Our OE volume was about flat in consumer but was down about 10% in commercial, given industry weakness. Segment operating income was $41 million. Goodyear Forward benefits more than offset net price mix versus raw material cost headwinds and general inflation.

由於行業疲軟，我們的消費性 OE 銷量基本持平，但商用類 OE 銷量下降了約 10%。分部營業收入為4,100萬美元。Goodyear Forward 的收益足以抵銷淨價格組合與原物料成本阻力和整體通膨的影響。

Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 15, fourth quarter unit volume decreased 9%, driven by actions to reduce lower margin business in key markets and channel destocking in China. Segment operating income totals 82 million and 13.5% of sales, an increase of $14 million compared to last year.

轉向投影片 15 上的亞太地區，第四季單位銷售量下降 9%，因為採取措施減少主要市場的低利潤業務以及中國通路去庫存。分部營業收入總計 8,200 萬美元，佔銷售額的 13.5%，比去年同期增加 1,400 萬美元。

Turning to our outlook, we expect that our first half SOI will decline based on prudent assumptions around our volume, carryover effects of production cuts in the fourth quarter, and significant increases in our raw material costs. In the second half, we expect modest volume growth and price mix to more than offset raw material inflation, which, when combined with Goodyear Forward benefits, should support earnings and margin growth, particularly in the fourth quarter.

談到我們的展望，基於對我們的產量、第四季度減產的延續效應以及原材料成本的大幅增加的審慎假設，我們預計上半年的 SOI 將下降。我們預計，下半年銷售溫和成長及價格組合將足以抵銷原物料通膨的影響，再加上固特異前進計畫帶來的收益，將有利於獲利和利潤率的成長，尤其是在第四季。

In addition, we expect consulting fees and other costs related to Goodyear Forward to decline by about $80 million versus last year. As we look at risks to our 2025 plan, a further step up in raw materials later this year could limit our earnings growth in the second half, as it typically takes us time to offset increases in our raw material costs with price and mix.

此外，我們預計與 Goodyear Forward 相關的諮詢費和其他成本將比去年下降約 8,000 萬美元。當我們審視 2025 年計畫的風險時，今年稍後原物料價格的進一步上漲可能會限制我們下半年的獲利成長，因為我們通常需要時間來透過價格和組合來抵消原材料成本的上漲。

Similarly, potential tariff impacts related to Canada and Mexico are difficult to predict, including both primary and secondary effects. In any case, we'll manage near-term volatility with the benefit of the stronger cost base we've gained under Goodyear Forward.

同樣，與加拿大和墨西哥相關的潛在關稅影響也難以預測，包括主要影響和次要影響。無論如何，我們將利用 Goodyear Forward 帶來的更強的成本基礎來管理短期波動。

Sources of upside to our plan include growth in volume and price mix related to the potential for US tariffs impacting countries outside of those currently contemplated. Similarly, we also anticipate that the European Commission may make a tariff determination as to unfair competition related to consumer tire imports in the coming months.

我們計劃的上行來源包括數量和價格組合的增長，這與美國關稅可能影響目前考慮以外的國家有關。同樣，我們也預期歐盟委員會可能在未來幾個月就與消費輪胎進口相關的不公平競爭作出關稅裁定。

Finally, we could see raw material prices decline if pre-buy and channel stocking of low-cost inventory abates. As we look at the outlook drivers specific to the first quarter, we expect global unit volumes to decline approximately 2% to 3% versus last year, reflecting elevated wholesale channel inventories in the US and consumer OE declines as a result of lower OE production.

最後，如果預購和通路低成本庫存減少，我們可能會看到原物料價格下降。當我們觀察第一季的前景驅動因素時，我們預計全球單位銷售量將較去年下降約 2% 至 3%，這反映了美國批發通路庫存增加，以及由於 OE 產量下降導致消費者 OE 下降。

In addition, we expect higher unabsorbed fixed costs of about $25 million driven by lower production during the fourth quarter. Price mix is expected to be a tailwind of about $65 million driven by pricing actions we have implemented and raw material index contracts with OE and Fleet customers.

此外，由於第四季產量下降，我們預計未吸收固定成本將增加約 2,500 萬美元。受我們實施的定價行動以及與 OE 和 Fleet 客戶簽訂的原材料指數合約的推動，價格組合預計將帶來約 6500 萬美元的順風。

Raw materials will increase approximately $175 million driven by natural and synthetic rubber price increases. At current spot rates, we would expect to see raw material cost increases of about $350 million in total in the first half of 2025, with about $50 million of that driven by transactional currency impacts.

受天然橡膠和合成橡膠價格上漲的推動，原物料價格將增加約 1.75 億美元。以當前現貨價格計算，我們預計 2025 年上半年原物料成本總計將增加約 3.5 億美元，其中約 5,000 萬美元受到交易貨幣影響。

Goodyear Forward will drive approximately $200 million of benefits, reflecting continued progress across all work streams. Inflation and other costs are expected to be a headwind of approximately $75 million, reflecting increases in transportation rates over and above core inflation. Foreign exchange will be a headwind of $15 million and the non-repeat of costs related to the fire in our Debica, Poland facility last year will be an $11 million benefit.

Goodyear Forward 將帶來約 2 億美元的收益，體現出所有工作流程的持續進步。通貨膨脹和其他成本預計將造成約 7,500 萬美元的不利影響，這反映了運輸費用的成長超過了核心通貨膨脹率。外匯將帶來 1,500 萬美元的不利因素，而去年波蘭德比卡工廠火災相關成本不再重演將帶來 1,100 萬美元的收益。

Also for modeling adjustments related to the OTR transaction, our full year 2024 OTR revenue was about $600 million and SOI was $65 million. Depreciation and amortization was $18 million. We expect the transaction to reduce 2025 SOI by approximately $80 million inclusive of stranded costs, primarily in Asia.

此外，對於與 OTR 交易相關的模型調整，我們 2024 年全年 OTR 收入約為 6 億美元，SOI 為 6,500 萬美元。折舊和攤提為 1800 萬美元。我們預計，此交易將使 2025 年 SOI 減少約 8,000 萬美元（包括擱淺成本），主要在亞洲。

Other financial assumptions on slide 18 have been updated to reflect our expectations for 2025. Interest expense will be approximately $60 million lower than last year, driven by debt reduction.

投影片 18 上的其他財務假設已更新，以反映我們對 2025 年的預期。由於債務減少，利息支出將比去年減少約 6,000 萬美元。

Higher restructurings reflect footprint actions announced under Goodyear Forward, including a recently announced plan in our Danville, Virginia facility. With major cost programs announced in three of our factories this year, we expect to incur some transitory manufacturing costs, approximately $30 million in the second half of the year.

更高級別的重組反映了 Goodyear Forward 計劃下宣布的足跡行動，包括我們最近宣布的弗吉尼亞州丹維爾工廠的計劃。由於今年我們三家工廠宣布了重大成本計劃，我們預計下半年將產生一些暫時的製造成本，約 3000 萬美元。

With inflows in working capital and lower CapEx spend relative to 2024, we expect to generate positive free cash flow in 2025, consistent with our deleveraging objectives.

隨著營運資金的流入和相對於 2024 年的資本支出降低，我們預計 2025 年將產生正的自由現金流，這與我們的去槓桿目標一致。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

現在，我們將開通熱線來回答您的問題。

Thank you very much. (Operator Instructions) James Piccarello, BMP.

非常感謝。（操作員指示）James Piccarello，BMP。

Hi, everybody. My first question is just on your price mix expectation for the year. I know it's harder to call the farther out, but. Yeah, can you just confirm, you know what the expectation is for the first half if you already provided that, and then, yeah, thoughts on the second half, raw materials, should we assume neutral or an additional headwind potential based on spot pricing, and have you seen any pricing actions from your peers thus far, given the rather substantial raw material headwinds that the industry is facing?

大家好。我的第一個問題是關於您對今年的價格組合預期。我知道呼叫距離越遠就越困難，但是。是的，您能否確認一下，如果您已經提供了上半年的預期，那麼對下半年的想法，原材料，我們應該根據現貨價格假設中性還是額外的逆風潛力，考慮到該行業面臨的相當大的原材料逆風，到目前為止，您是否看到同行採取了任何定價行動？

Yeah, sure. James, I'll start and I'll have Mark follow-up on the pricing environment. When we look at our SOI bridge for 2025, your price mix should grow from the first quarter on into the second and third quarter, a part of that is the realization of our OERMIs and our raw material index contracts with our fleets. Those generally were price to on a six-month -- in six-month arrears, and so we don't have nearly the full run rate here in Q1. There's also been pricing actions that we've taken in our key markets around the world in the first quarter as well.

是的，當然。詹姆斯，我先開始，然後我會讓馬克跟進定價環境。當我們展望 2025 年的 SOI 橋時，您的價格組合應該從第一季度增長到第二季度和第三季度，其中一部分是我們與船隊實現的 OERMI 和原材料指數合約。這些價格一般都是以六個月計算的——六個月的拖欠價格，因此我們在第一季還沒有達到全部的運行率。第一季度，我們也在全球主要市場採取了定價措施。

And I'll let I'll let Mark follow up on that. When we look at the raw materials, what I would say is the $350 million is, based on current spot rates for the first half. If spot rates hold, we could see a headwind of about $100 million to $150 million in the back half of the year. Of course, spot prices have been pretty volatile, so we'll continue to update you on that. But again looking for price mix to grow into Q2 and Q3 before, leveling off or just depending on what happens the rest of the year with Ross. Mark?

我會讓馬克跟進此事。當我們查看原料時，我會說 3.5 億美元是基於上半年的當前現貨價格。如果現貨價格保持不變，我們可能會看到今年下半年出現約 1 億至 1.5 億美元的逆風。當然，現貨價格一直非常不穩定，所以我們會繼續向您提供最新資訊。但是再次尋找價格組合，以便在第二季和第三季之前保持平穩，或者僅僅取決於羅斯在今年剩餘時間內發生的情況。標記？

Yeah, just talking through some of our pricing actions that we've already happened as Christina mentioned right since the third quarter call, pricing actions we've taken, we've done multiple rounds of pricing globally commercial tires in Turkey, for example, across the Latin American countries, as well as consumer pricing in Europe as well as the Middle East and then across the US on specific product line we've taken product actions both in quarter 4 as well as rolling into quarter 1. So we'd expect to see the benefit of that going into the quarter 2 time period as that flows through the system.

是的，正如克里斯蒂娜在第三季度電話會議上提到的那樣，我們只是在談論我們已經採取的一些定價行動，例如，在土耳其對全球商業輪胎進行了多輪定價，在拉丁美洲國家，以及歐洲和中東的消費者定價，然後在美國各地針對特定產品線，我們都在第四季度以及第一季度採取了產品行動。因此，我們希望看到其在第二季度期間隨著系統運作帶來的好處。

We continue to watch things to make sure that we are competitively priced based on, our upgraded marketing intelligence. As we mentioned, is a big area we focused on in 2024 was our scraping and making sure that that we're benchmarking, that we're in the right price position across each of the categories and really taking a look at that from a consumer facing thing so that we are competitive in the marketplace.

我們會持續關注事態發展，以確保我們根據升級的營銷情報提供具有競爭力的價格。正如我們所提到的，2024 年我們重點關注的一大領域是我們的抓取，確保我們進行基準測試，確保我們在每個類別中都處於正確的價格位置，並真正從面向消費者的角度來審視這一點，以便我們在市場上具有競爭力。

Got it. That's helpful. And then I just have a quick two-part question. One on volume, where you have the full year industry volume assumption, consumer flat, commercial up 3% at the midpoint again at the industry level. Just, your thoughts on Goodyear's volume, performance for the year, we could see the down 2 to 3 for the first quarter. Just curious, what the expectation is for the second half, is, uneasy year comps, is there, a good pathway for likely growth given channel inventory levels at this point?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後我只想快速問兩個問題。一個是銷量，全年產業銷售假設，消費品持平，商業品在產業水準的中點再次上漲 3%。只是，您對固特異今年的銷量和業績的看法是，我們可以看到第一季的銷量將下降 2 到 3%。只是好奇，對下半年的預期是什麼，與去年同期相比不太樂觀，考慮到目前的通路庫存水平，是否有一條良好的增長途徑？

And then just the -- in your good year forward savings in the fourth quarter there was obvious upside so just had a question on you know what drove that upside? It seems like it might have been in the margin expansion effort. Is that just your pricing actions? Thanks.

然後只是——在第四季度的良好年度遠期儲蓄​​中，有明顯的上升空間，所以我想問一下，您知道是什麼推動了這種上升嗎？這看起來像是在努力擴大利潤。這只是你們的定價行為嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, let me talk about volumes to start and then we can talk about Goodyear Forward with Christina. Again, as you mentioned in the consumer replacement side, we expect overall global growth in 2025 with a stronger marketplace in Europe and Asia and continued to see. We expect to see volatility in the US market relative to the imports in the South America or Latin American countries in Brazil.

是的，首先讓我談談數量，然後我們可以與克里斯蒂娜討論固特異前進。再次，正如您在消費者替代方面所提到的那樣，我們預計 2025 年全球將實現整體成長，歐洲和亞洲的市場將更加強勁，這種趨勢還將持續。我們預期美國市場相對於南美洲或巴西拉丁美洲國家的進口將會出現波動。

We expect to see some declines in the imports as new tariffs have gone into impact there starting in October. But for the consumer OE, we think there'll be a flattish first half with growth on the back end, as you mentioned, on the US side.

由於新關稅從10月開始生效，我們預計進口量將會下降。但對於消費者 OE 而言，我們認為上半年將會持平，後端將會成長，正如您所說，在美國方面。

If we look at commercial, from a replacement demand, we think that's going to stabilize progressing throughout the year with non-imports declining as the tariffs that were recently announced begin to take impact, especially those coming out of Thailand.

如果從商業替代需求的角度來看，我們認為全年需求將趨於穩定，非進口產品將下降，因為最近宣布的關稅開始產生影響，尤其是來自泰國的關稅。

And then, so overall commercial at East side, first half I think will be relatively soft continuing on from last year, and then second half being stronger with the new GHG rigs going into place and the fleets beginning their pre-buy activities before those new regulations go into place and then. You know your second question and secondary part of that, how are we going to address those lower volumes? So we're doing that on multi-fronts as we shared in quarter 3, we are aggressively growing.

那麼，所以我認為東區的整體商業活動上半年將延續去年的相對疲軟，而下半年將更加強勁，因為新的 GHG 鑽井平台將投入使用，船隊將在新的法規實施之前開始預購活動。您知道您的第二個問題和次要部分，我們將如何解決這些較低的數量？正如我們在第三季所分享的那樣，我們正在多方面開展工作，我們正在積極發展。

This was an area that we were behind on. We took a step back. We reorganized ourselves in terms of our engineering SWAT teams, our go-to-market teams, and have dedicated focus on bringing 100 and some odd nearly 200 additional SKUs into the marketplace in the high-end, highly profitable segments of the market that are going to generate the returns and greater value for us and also at a premium price. So that's a key area of focus for us. We've got five new power lines coming in.

這是我們落後的領域。我們後退了一步。我們對工程特警隊、市場推廣團隊進行了重組，專注於將 100 個甚至近 200 個額外的 SKU 引入高端、高利潤的細分市場，為我們帶來回報和更大的價值，而且價格也很高。所以這是我們關注的重點領域。我們有五條新的電線接入。

To the marketplace around the world, our weather ready 2s, our Wrangler Workhorses, the AM6s we discussed that are really on the premium side of our high value UHP market, the Eagle F1 all season as well in the high segments. And Maxife too, all of which are coming into the marketplace throughout this year, which again is why we feel good towards that second half as these all are coming into the marketplace at volume and the right number of SKUs in each of those power lines, James.

對於全球市場，我們的全天候 2s、我們的 Wrangler Workhorses、我們討論過的 AM6 確實屬於我們高價值 UHP 市場的高端產品，而全季節的 Eagle F1 也屬於高端產品。還有 Maxife，所有這些產品都在今年進入市場，這也是我們對下半年感到樂觀的原因，因為它們都大量進入市場，而且每條電源線都有適當數量的 SKU，詹姆斯。

And James, just to follow up your question then, I mean, there's a lot of time Mark just spent on price mix actions and a lot of that started in Q3 last year. And so you're seeing that in the Goodyear Forward program, especially in the premium end of the market.

詹姆斯，我只是想跟進你的問題，我的意思是，馬克花了很多時間在價格組合行動上，其中很多是從去年第三季度開始的。您可以在固特異前進計畫中看到這一點，特別是在高端市場。

Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

非常感謝。謝謝大家。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolf Research.

伊曼紐‧羅斯納 (Emmanuel Rosner)，沃爾夫研究公司。

Oh, thank you. I was hoping to actually follow up on the same topics, which is, volume, price mix outlook, first half versus second half. So it seems the outlook contemplates, decline in SOI at least in the first half, but then, growth, in the second half. Can you just maybe, just go back over for both volume, price, and mix, what will be the anticipated drivers of improvement in the second half? And I guess, how much visibility and conviction do you have on at this point?

哦，謝謝。我希望實際上跟進相同的主題，即數量、價格組合前景、上半年與下半年。因此，看起來前景預計，SOI 至少在上半年會下降，但下半年會成長。您能否回顧一下銷售量、價格和產品組合，預計下半年的改善驅動力是什麼？我想，您現在對此有多少了解和信心呢？

Sure. Hi, good morning, Emmanuel. I'll start out with the SOI bridge for 2025. And if you look at the puts and takes as we've talked about them, our 2024 SOI was about $1.3 billion. If we adjust that for insurance proceeds, we are at $1.2 billion. Now Goodyear Forward, of course, going to add $750 million for us against the base inflation of $225 million. We said we're also going to have headwinds in other costs outside of core inflation and that's mostly driven by transportation that's going to run $20 million a quarter.

當然。你好，早安，Emmanuel。我將從 2025 年的 SOI 橋開始。如果您看看我們討論過的收益和利得，我們 2024 年的 SOI 約為 13 億美元。如果我們根據保險收益進行調整，則該數字為 12 億美元。現在，Goodyear Forward 當然會為我們增加 7.5 億美元，以對抗 2.25 億美元的基準通膨。我們說過，除了核心通膨之外，我們還將面臨其他成本方面的阻力，這主要是由每季 2,000 萬美元的運輸成本所致。

We also have three factories that we are ramping down or decreasing production in the third and fourth quarter of this year, so that will increase our manufacturing costs through some transitory and efficiencies in the third and fourth quarter by about $30 million.

我們還有三家工廠將在今年第三季和第四季縮減產量，因此，透過第三季和第四季的一些臨時措施和效率提升，我們的製造成本將增加約 3,000 萬美元。

We've talked a lot about raw material headwinds, about $350 million in the first half, about $100 million, maybe up to $150 million at current spot prices in the second half, and then spent a lot of time already on the call about how we're thinking around price mix, we've given you the first quarter, but that should grow pretty materially in Q2 and Q3 and get to a run rate by Q4 and that's driven by pricing actions that we've implemented in the 1st quarter already.

我們已經討論了很多有關原材料逆風的問題，上半年大約為 3.5 億美元，下半年大約為 1 億美元，按當前現貨價格計算可能高達 1.5 億美元，然後在電話會議上花了很多時間討論我們如何考慮價格組合，我們已經給了您第一季度的數據，但這應該會在第二季度和第三季度實現的定價

Pricing through our OERMI index agreements with fleets as well and then obviously Mark just spent a lot of time on the new product development, new product lines we're bringing into the market which should also support our mix.

我們也透過與船隊達成的 OERMI 指數協議進行定價，顯然馬克花了很多時間在新產品開發、我們推向市場的新產品線方面，這也應該支持我們的產品組合。

OTR should be a headwind, we've outlined that in the presentation $80 million on a four-year basis and then it does come down to volume. What we've laid out is a lower first half driven mostly by the US channels stocking of low-end imports, and lower OE volumes just following OEM production broadly, and then moderate growth in the second half for us driven by, very low comps and recovering industry broadly in commercial and in consumer OE.

OTR 應該是一個逆風，我們在報告中概述了四年 8000 萬美元的支出，然後它就會下降到數量上。我們預測，上半年銷量較低，主要原因是美國通路囤積低端進口產品，以及 OE 銷量較低，僅隨 OEM 生產而下降；下半年銷量溫和增長，原因是同店銷售額較低，且商業和消費者 OE 行業普遍復甦。

And so once you put all of that together, I think it's safe to say you should be able to model a level of SOI that's in line with our current year, including the insurance, which means that we should be demonstrating a very strong level of underlying growth in the business, something on the order of 10%.

因此，一旦將所有這些放在一起，我認為可以肯定地說，你應該能夠模擬與我們當前年度一致的 SOI 水平，包括保險，這意味著我們應該展示出非常強勁的業務潛在增長水平，大約 10% 左右。

That is super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you so much. And then just so in line with currency, I mean in line with 2024? Inline 2025 would be in line with 2024, including the proceeds you got last year?

太感謝了。那麼就與貨幣保持一致，我的意思是與 2024 年保持一致嗎？預計 2025 年將與 2024 年保持一致，包括去年獲得的收益？

Yeah, so it's like the 13, 20 level.

是的，就像 13、20 級一樣。

Got it, yeah. So that was our understanding as well. Perfect. And then if you could just help us out with the free cash flow walk as well, and then you called for positive free cash flow. I assume that this is before restructuring. How should we think about restructuring, which I think you qualify for this year, but also how much more is there to spend as part of the overall plan?

明白了，是的。這也是我們的理解。完美的。然後，如果您能幫助我們解決自由現金流問題，那麼您就要求實現正自由現金流。我認為這是重組之前。我們應該如何考慮重組，我認為您今年有資格進行重組，但作為整體計劃的一部分，還有多少資金可以投入？

Yeah, sure. So the positive free cash flow includes $400 million of restructuring, so we intend to be positive, including restructuring. This is really driven by that SOI we just talked about, and you should get to an EBITDA of call it about $2.1 billion, after you go through the model that we just talked through on SOI. Working capital will be a benefit. We've laid that out restructuring, of course, against that taxes, a couple $100 million -- $400 million dollars in restructuring, sorry. And then interest expenses coming down on a year-over-year basis.

是的，當然。因此，正自由現金流包括 4 億美元的重組，所以我們打算保持積極態度，包括重組。這實際上是由我們剛剛談到的 SOI 推動的，在您了解了我們剛剛討論過的 SOI 模型之後，您應該會得到大約 21 億美元的 EBITDA。營運資金將會帶來好處。當然，我們已經制定了重組計劃，以抵消稅收，重組計劃的金額約為 1 億美元到 4 億美元，抱歉。然後利息支出較去年同期下降。

Interest income will offset that. We'll have our normal financing fees and then CapEx significantly lower than 2025, and all of that should get you to a fairly positive free cash flow for expectation for 2025. And then if you think through to next year, we should see restructurings normalized.

利息收入將抵銷這一點。我們的正常融資費用和資本支出將遠低於 2025 年，所有這些都將為您帶來 2025 年預期相當正的自由現金流。如果你考慮明年，我們應該會看到重組正常化。

I there's a little bit of carryover from Goodyear forward thinking restructurings next year will be on the order of $100 million to $200 million. We'll see further interest expense savings once we close on the Dunlop transaction and finalize the strategic review of chemicals.

我認為，固特異明年的前瞻性重組將帶來一些收益，約 1 億至 2 億美元。一旦我們完成鄧祿普交易並最終完成化學品的策略審查，我們將看到進一步的利息支出節省。

So we would be in a position next year to drive cash flows, significant positive cash flow reflective of the underlying earnings run rate of the business.

因此，明年我們將能夠推動現金流，顯著的正現金流將反映企業的基本獲利運行率。

Right. That's super helpful. Just a final point, is it -- is the overall spending on the restructuring lower than initially anticipated? Maybe just my memory doesn't serve me right, but it sounded to me that, the total budget could have been sort of like north of $1 billion. Now we're talking about just $400 million this year and maybe $100 million to $200 million next year. So is it just an overall lower bill than expected?

正確的。這非常有幫助。最後再問一點，重組的整體支出是否低於最初的預期？也許只是我的記憶不正確，但在我看來，總預算可能在 10 億美元以上。現在我們談論的是今年只有 4 億美元，明年可能有 1 億到 2 億美元。那麼整體帳單金額是不是比預期的要低呢？

I think yeah, Emmanuel we had set aside about $1 billion as part of Goodyear Forward for restructuring and as I've just laid it out, we spent $224 million, the capital that we're going to allocate in 2025 is about $400 million and then up to $200 million next year. So we're probably going to land right around $800 million or so. As part of the overall program, I think some of that is terrific negotiations, with our constituents around the world. I think a part of that also is just the execution that we've seen in what Mark's describing about generating efficiencies in the factories to increase our volumes. And so no other announcements planned, nothing else in the pipeline. If anything changes, we'll keep you updated.

是的，伊曼紐爾，我們已經為 Goodyear Forward 的重組計劃預留了大約 10 億美元，正如我剛才所說，我們花費了 2.24 億美元，我們將在 2025 年分配的資本約為 4 億美元，明年將達到 2 億美元。因此我們的收入可能大約是 8 億美元左右。作為整體計劃的一部分，我認為其中一些是與世界各地選民進行的精彩談判。我認為其中一部分也只是馬克所描述的關於提高工廠效率以增加產量的執行情況。因此，沒有計劃發布其他公告，也沒有其他計劃。如果有任何變化，我們將及時通知您。

Great thank you so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you. Doug Carson, Bank of America.

謝謝。美國銀行的道格·卡森（Doug Carson）。

Great, thanks so much for the detail on the slide deck. I want to maybe just turn -- good morning. I want to maybe turn to the balance sheet for a moment here, net leverage now, as it's three times almost a turn below what you had last year.

太好了，非常感謝您在幻燈片中提供的詳細資訊。我可能只是想轉個彎——早安。這裡我想先看一下資產負債表，現在的淨槓桿比率幾乎比去年低了三倍。

So the Forward program is certainly working and I just kind of pulled up your ratings at B1 and B+ seem pretty underrated relative to the progress you made on the balance sheet. Have you had a chance to kind of refresh with the rating agencies to have them take a kind of newer look at where the balance sheet's headed?

因此，Forward 計劃肯定是有效的，我只是將您的評級提高到 B1 和 B+，相對於您在資產負債表上取得的進展，這似乎被低估了。您是否有機會與評等機構溝通，讓他們以更新的眼光來看待資產負債表的走向？

And that's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Yeah, thanks for the question and certainly making a lot of progress on the balance sheet. We intend to close on the Dunlop transaction a little later this year and that will bring in $700 million more gross proceeds that we intend to use to deleverage even further. We do talk to each one of the rating agencies very regularly. Last night, in fact, was the most recent conversation.

是的，感謝您的提問，而且資產負債表方面確實取得了很大進展。我們打算在今年稍後完成鄧祿普交易，這將帶來 7 億美元的額外總收益，我們打算用這筆錢進一步去槓桿。我們確實會定期與每一家評級機構進行溝通。事實上，昨晚是最近的一次談話。

And I think they do look at our forward forecasts. I think there was a lot of emphasis placed on our 2024 free cash flow, which you can see was slightly negative because of a lot of the restructuring programs that we had in place. And so I think as we look ahead, we would expect more positive outlook and sentiment from the rating agencies just given the progress so far.

我認為他們確實會關注我們的前瞻性預測。我認為我們非常重視 2024 年的自由現金流，您可以看到，由於我們實施了許多重組計劃，該自由現金流略顯負面。因此我認為，展望未來，鑑於迄今為止的進展，我們預計評級機構將呈現更積極的前景和情緒。

That's great. That's well deserved. I was impressed to see the close to 50% increase in the good year forward cost savings up to $750 million. And you know as I look at the environment we're in so much volatility between tariffs and raw material fluctuations.

那太棒了。這是當之無愧的。令我印象深刻的是，預計新年成本節省將增加了近 50%，高達 7.5 億美元。你知道，當我觀察環境時，我們發現關稅和原料波動非常大。

You maybe just help us think about some of those big you know line items you have you know $300 million for you know footprint optimization and $200 million for purchasing.

您或許可以幫助我們考慮一些大項目，其中 3 億美元用於足跡優化，2 億美元用於採購。

Or are some of these categories, less at risk, more at risk given the environment? Just trying to be thoughtful about the $750 million.

或者，在特定環境下，其中一些類別的風險較小，而其他類別的風險較大？只是想認真考慮一下 7.5 億美元。

Yeah, we feel, we feel really positive about the look ahead, right? We executed very strongly in 2024. We were able to put additional projects and their grassroots projects, right, as well. So really good. It's coming from our associates from around the world. We've got our dedicated weekly session as part of governance across the five key workstreams. And as I mentioned at the start of the call, we've now combined our manufacturing organization into one global organization with our three regional heads reporting to Don Metzelaar, our new VP there, with a very strong 30-year track record.

是的，我們對未來感到非常樂觀，對嗎？我們在 2024 年的執行非常出色。我們也能夠將附加項目及其基層項目放在正確位置。真的很好。它來自我們世界各地的同事。我們每週都會召開專門會議，作為五個關鍵工作流程管理的一部分。正如我在電話會議開始時提到的那樣，我們現在已將我們的製造組織合併為一個全球組織，我們的三個區域主管向我們新任副總裁唐·梅策拉爾 (Don Metzelaar) 匯報工作，他擁有 30 年的輝煌業績。

I spent a lot of time in the space myself last year with the teams as we went through just again working on the nuts and bolts of manufacturing basics, right, of us really working on our efficiencies, our operating equipment effectiveness, our scrap rates, getting through the material flows, and really upgrading things in terms of just the diligence and the few KPIs that make the most difference in terms of us really getting ourselves to a super strong position there. So we feel very good.

去年，我和團隊在該領域花費了大量時間，我們再次研究了製造基礎的具體細節，對吧，我們真正致力於提高效率、操作設備效率、廢品率、打通物料流，並真正在勤奮和一些 KPI 方面進行升級，這些對於我們真正讓自己處於超強地位至關重要。因此我們感覺非常好。

About our plant optimization, we announced the footprint actions both last year as well as at the start of this year and our commercial truck operation to be in a position where we can compete in the marketplace there at the right cost structure. And we continue to drive to drive those work streams. In the purchasing side, we're continuing to go through on looking at our cost in the purchasing arena, working with our supply base both on current programs as well as future programs, and a strong drive and efficiency improvement in our indirect and MRO activity.

關於我們的工廠優化，我們在去年和今年年初都宣布了足跡行動，並優化了我們的商用卡車運營，使我們能夠以正確的成本結構在市場上競爭。我們將繼續推動這些工作流程。在採購方面，我們將繼續專注於採購領域的成本，與我們的供應基地合作開展當前項目和未來項目，並大力推動和提高我們的間接和 MRO 活動的效率。

So we feel again in that area very strong. We've taken actions throughout last year as well as early this year and our SAG or SG&A, however you want to refer to that as of making sure that our overhead structure is in the right condition there and continue to look at that on a monthly basis as we take a look to say what are things that we can do more efficiently than we've been doing it.

因此，我們再次感受到該地區的強烈氣氛。我們在去年全年以及今年年初都採取了行動，我們的 SAG 或 SG&A，無論如何，您想將其稱為確保我們的間接費用結構處於正確狀態，並繼續每月查看，我們會查看哪些事情我們可以比現在做得更有效率。

So those activities along with our R&D, looking at our equipment standards, looking at how we spend, how we negotiate, and long story short of it, we feel very strong that the improved savings rates are going to continue. And it's just really gotten to a point that is embedded in our DNA.

因此，這些活動加上我們的研發、設備標準的審查、支出方式的審查、談判方式的審查等等，總之，我們堅信儲蓄率的提高將會持續下去。它確實已經深入到我們的 DNA 之中。

Great, Mark, Christina. Thank you very much for taking my questions and it was very helpful.

太好了，馬克，克里斯蒂娜。非常感謝您回答我的問題，這對我很有幫助。

Thank you. Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. I want to ask about on the chemical side. And I know you said you're still on track for a sale. Has the reception been a bit more muted? We speak to different chemical companies and obviously there's some challenges just for the industry there. What is your latest thoughts on that?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。我想問一下化學方面的。我知道您說過您仍可以順利完成銷售。接待是否變得有些冷清了？我們與不同的化學公司進行了交流，顯然那裡的產業面臨一些挑戰。您對此的最新想法是什麼？

And we don't have a lot more to say other than that. That review remains in process. I think that generally speaking, I think the interest has been It's pretty across all sectors, whether you think about strategics or private equity. This one in fact was when we got into the market a little bit later. Of course, the focus on OTR and Dunlop in the earlier part of 2024.

除此之外我們沒什麼好說的了。該審查仍在進行中。我認為整體而言，無論是策略性投資或私募股權，各個領域都存在相當大的興趣。事實上，這是我們進入市場稍晚的時候發生的。當然，2024 年初的重點是 OTR 和 Dunlop。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Understood. And then just a quick one on the SOI in AEC. And apologies if I missed it earlier. It's actually very strong margin. Was there anything kind of one off there, some sort of kind of benefit that doesn't carry over, just wanted to double check on that.

明白了。然後簡單介紹一下 AEC 中的 SOI。如果我之前錯過了，我深感抱歉。這實際上是非常強勁的利潤。是否存在某種特殊情況，某種無法延續的福利，我只是想再檢查一下。

No, we've got. We just have a really strong operation in AP.

不，我們有。我們在 AP 的業務非常強大。

The manufacturing process is very strong, pricing in the marketplace is very good, new fresh products going in, winning with the right winners in the marketplace, particularly on the EV front there, and just really operations doing quite well on AP.

製造流程非常強大，市場定價非常好，新產品不斷湧現，在市場上與合適的贏家競爭，特別是在電動車方面，而且 AP 方面的運作確實做得很好。

Got it. Actually, just one quick one, last quick one. I know I heard earlier about the expansion in Oklahoma. Is that in any way kind of maybe mitigation in case of the tariffs?

知道了。實際上，只快速說一句，也是最後一個快速說一句。我知道我之前聽說過有關俄克拉荷馬州擴張的消息。這是否在某種程度上可以減輕關稅影響？

No. We would like to tell you our crystal ball was good enough to do that though but that was not the case, right? It's just necessary modernization that we needed to make across our footprint, and you know that's one of our larger facilities or one of the largest actually, and we just were taking all the right actions we needed to take there in terms of moving more into the higher REM sizes, additional volume for the marketplace in that higher profit, higher margin segments.

不。我們想告訴你，我們的水晶球足以做到這一點，但事實並非如此，對嗎？這只是我們需要在整個業務範圍內進行的必要的現代化改造，你知道這是我們較大的設施之一，或者實際上是最大的設施之一，我們只是在那裡採取了所有正確的行動，以便更多地轉向更高的 REM 規模，為利潤更高、利潤率更高的細分市場的市場提供額外的產量。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you and we have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mark for any final or closing remarks.

謝謝您，我們沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給馬克，讓他做最後的演講或結束語。

Okay. So I'd like to thank you all for taking the time to join us today for the fourth quarter earnings call. We've come a long way here over the last year and still have a lot on our plate to action but feel very good. We've got the right leadership team. We've got all the right associates around the world, and we, we're really looking forward to sharing with you all the progress we make on our Goodyear Forward initiatives as we move throughout this year.

好的。因此，我要感謝大家今天抽出時間參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。我們在過去一年裡取得了長足的進步，雖然仍有許多工作要做，但感覺非常好。我們擁有優秀的領導團隊。我們擁有遍佈全球的所有合適合作夥伴，我們非常期待與大家分享我們今年在 Goodyear Forward 計劃中取得的所有進展。

Thank you all for joining us today and everybody have a great day.

感謝大家今天的參與，祝福大家有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. And that does conclude today's conference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。