Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Shelby, and I will be your conference operator today.

早安.我叫謝爾比，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's third quarter. 2024 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After some opening remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

現在，我謹歡迎大家來到固特異的第三季。 2024 年收益電話會議。所有線路均已靜音以防止任何背景噪音。一些開場白之後，將有一個問答環節。

You may register to ask questions at any time by pressing the star one on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Please note this call may be recorded and it is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Greg Shanks, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

您可以隨時按下電話鍵盤上的星號來註冊提問。您可以按二號星號退出佇列。請注意，本次通話可能會被錄音，現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Greg Shanks。

Thank you, Shelby. Good morning and welcome to our third quarter, 2024 earnings call. Today on the call, we have Mark Stewart, our CEO and President and Christina Zamarro, our executive Vice President and CFO. During this call, we will refer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，謝爾比。早安，歡迎參加我們 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有我們的執行長兼總裁馬克史都華 (Mark Stewart) 和我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜薩馬羅 (Christina Zamarro)。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考前瞻性陳述和非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述涉及風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

For more information on the most significant factors that could affect future results, please refer to slide 21 of the supporting presentation for today's call and our filings with the SEC. These materials can be found on our website at investor.Goodyear.com where a replay of this call will also be available. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on today's call to the comparable GAAP measures is also included in the appendix of that presentation.

有關可能影響未來結果的最重要因素的更多信息，請參閱今天電話會議的支持演示文稿第 21 張幻燈片以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。這些資料可以在我們的網站 investor.Goodyear.com 上找到，該網站還提供本次電話會議的重播。此簡報的附錄中還包含今天電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

With that. I will now turn the call over to mark.

就這樣。現在我將把電話轉給馬克。

Thank you Greg and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Before we dive into the numbers this morning, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the momentum the Goodyear team has collectively created over the past four quarters. Goodyear forward is delivering significant and tangible results both in the bottom-line earnings and in being a key driver enabler in our structurally changing the way in which we work and govern the company.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。在我們今天早上深入討論這些數字之前，我想花點時間來了解一下固特異團隊在過去四個季度中共同創造的勢頭。固特異未來將在獲利能力和公司結構性變革中發揮關鍵推動作用，以取得重大而實際的成果。

In fact, 2024 will mark the 1st year, Goodyear has expanded margins since 2016, excluding the recovery immediately following COVID as we've discussed with you in the past since becoming CEO. I have spent time in getting to know and listen to our people, learning the technical and operational aspects of our operations and product development.

事實上，2024 年將是固特異自 2016 年以來利潤率擴大的第一年，不包括我們擔任執行長以來與您討論過的 COVID 之後立即出現的復甦。我花了一些時間去了解和傾聽我們的員工，學習我們營運和產品開發的技術和操作方面。

I visited our factories, our retail stores and have directly engaged with our international operations. I've also been meeting with key customers and partners here in the Americas and around the world to hear directly what we're doing well and what we can do better to meet and exceed consumer and customer needs.

我參觀了我們的工廠、零售店，並直接參與了我們的國際業務。我還會見了美洲和世界各地的主要客戶和合作夥伴，直接了解我們做得好的地方以及我們可以做得更好的地方，以滿足並超越消費者和客戶的需求。

Developing a deep understanding of where we can leverage our strengths and address our shortcomings as an organization has given me even greater confidence in our ability to transform and to position ourselves for long term profitable growth, particularly in the premium segments of the market.

深入了解了我們作為一個組織可以在哪些方面發揮我們的優勢以及克服我們的不足，讓我對我們的轉型能力以及為長期盈利增長做好準備的能力更加有信心，特別是在高端市場。

Let's turn to the quarter three results. The third quarter was strong for us in terms of margin expansion. We delivered segment operating income of 347 million. Our SOI margin was 7.2% higher than last year. To put this in perspective, we have now successfully put together four consecutive quarters of margin growth under the Goodyear forward plan and the actions and the governance we have put in place this year with our robust cadence of manufacturing, engineering and commercial accountability.

讓我們來看看第三季的業績。就利潤率擴張而言，第三季我們表現強勁。我們實現分部營業收入3.47億。我們的 SOI 利潤率比去年高出 7.2%。從這個角度來看，在固特異前瞻性計劃以及我們今年採取的行動和治理以及我們強勁的製造、工程和商業問責節奏的推動下，我們現已成功實現連續四個季度的利潤增長。

This morning, we're building on that momentum by increasing our transformation plan savings targets. We've raised our guidance for 24 goodyear for benefits to 450 million up 100 million since the start of the year. Additionally, by the end of next year, we expect to deliver a total of 1.5 billion in run rate benefits. That's up from our original target of 1.3 billion and we will not stop there, we will continue to look for opportunities to deliver beyond our updated targets as well as we create a more efficient, stronger company.

今天上午，我們將利用這一勢頭，提高轉型計劃的節約目標。我們已將 24 億美元的獲利預期上調至 4.5 億美元，較今年年初上漲 1 億美元。此外，到明年年底，我們預計將實現總計 15 億美元的運行率效益。這高於我們最初 13 億的目標，但我們不會止步於此，我們將繼續尋找機會超越我們更新的目標，並創造一家更有效率、更強大的公司。

Like any plan, we know that while the path may change, the goal remains the same, deliver increased value to our customers and our shareholders, we still have much work to do in the face of industry headwinds our consumer replacement volume continues to underperform the industry with tier four tires flowing into the majority of our key markets. At the same time, OEM production continues to reset to a lower base in that environment, i assure you we are absolutely not letting up. I continue to have confidence we will reach our 10%. So, I margin target by the end of next year, this takes into consideration both the volume headwinds and what we see today as far as increases in our raw material costs in 2025.

與任何計劃一樣，我們知道，雖然路徑可能會改變，但目標保持不變，那就是為我們的客戶和股東提供更大的價值，面對行業逆風，我們仍有許多工作要做，我們的消費者更換量繼續落後於行業，四級輪胎流入我們大多數主要市場。同時，在這種環境下，OEM生產繼續重置到較低的基數，我向你保證，我們絕對不會放鬆。我依然有信心我們能夠達到 10% 的目標。因此，我確定明年年底的利潤目標，這不僅考慮了產量阻力，也考慮了我們今天看到的 2025 年原材料成本的成長。

Looking at Goodyear forward on our last conference call, we discussed in some detail, the cost savings and the efficiency contributions of Goodyear forward. Today, I'll share an update on the work we're doing on the customer and consumer facing aspects of the business. One of our major priorities as part of Goodyear forward is elevating Goodyear and our family brands.

在我們上次電話會議上展望固特異的未來時，我們詳細討論了固特異未來的成本節約和效率貢獻。今天，我將分享我們在面向客戶和消費者的業務方面所做工作的最新進展。作為固特異發展的一部分，我們的首要任務之一就是提升固特異和我們的家族品牌。

Our brands have to resonate with consumers, and we must be thought of as a premier tired technology leader in the industry. This is the surest path for us to capture value at the high end of the market and create pull across all other segments.

我們的品牌必須引起消費者的共鳴，我們必須被視為業界首屈一指的輪胎技術領導者。這是我們在高端市場獲取價值並在所有其他領域創造吸引力的最可靠途徑。

One way we are engaging consumers is through our partnerships with some of the most recognizable brands in the world. In September, we partner with Ferrari on unveiling their new 12 Cylindric. If you haven't seen it, this car is truly awesome. It's an awesome machine. Looks like a GT drives like a super sports car. This is Goodyear's first fitment on a Ferrari in 30 years. It highlights our renewed commitment to our brand and our premium technology driven strategy. This is a space where we will need to be positioned and we continue to partner on the right halo fitment with pure play technology leaders to showcase our brand and our cutting edge products. We continue to be positioned well and showing technical and marketing strength in our ev fitments around the world as well.

我們吸引消費者的方式之一是與世界上一些最知名的品牌建立合作關係。9 月，我們與法拉利合作推出了其新款 12 Cylindric。如果你還沒見過，這輛車真是太棒了。這是一台非常棒的機器。GT 看起來就像一輛超級跑車。這是固特異 30 年來首次為法拉利提供安裝服務。它凸顯了我們對品牌和高端技術驅動策略的重新承諾。我們需要在這個領域進行定位，並將繼續與純技術領導者合作，以合適的方式展示我們的品牌和尖端產品。我們繼續保持良好定位，並在世界各地的電動車配件領域展現出技術和行銷實力。

Another big part of this renewed engagement with our consumers is increasing our offering of premium skews as an example in the US. During the quarter, we successfully launched the assurance weather ready to a top tier powerline targeting 1st and 2nd replacement customers. In this line we will introduce 60% more skews than the predecessor line had this is very important as it will make the product line competitive with best-in-class tier one premium offerings.

我們與消費者重新互動的另一個重要部分是增加我們提供的優質產品，例如在美國。在本季度，我們成功推出了第一和第二次替換客戶的頂級電力線保證天氣功能。在這條生產線上，我們將引入比前代生產線多 60% 的傾斜，這非常重要，因為它將使該產品線能夠與一流的一級優質產品競爭。

Similarly, in early 25 we will launch an all-new Eagle F one asymmetric six and Eagle F one Super Sport combining offering of 150 unique skews almost entirely in the 18 inch and above rim sizes. These tire lines have no predecessor in our US market and demonstrate our commitment and our action to expanding in the premium sector of the marketplace.

同樣，在 2025 年初，我們將推出全新的 Eagle F one 不對稱六缸引擎和 Eagle F one Super Sport，提供 150 種獨特的傾斜設計，幾乎全部為 18 吋及以上的輪圈尺寸。這些輪胎系列在我們的美國市場上是史無前例的，體現了我們致力於在高端市場領域擴張的承諾和行動。

Additionally, the Eagle F all1 season product line will launch in late 2025 with about 70% more coverage than the predecessor line.

此外，Eagle F all1 季節產品系列將於 2025 年底推出，覆蓋範圍將比前代產品系列提高約 70%。

We know our customers need to see us as a reliable supplier covering all Skos in the premium product line offerings. We simply can't just supply a portion of the premier line that relegates us to a choice. Number two or even number three, in the minds of our dealers, a broader offering that picks up the tail skews is crucial to our success. Of course, tail skews are highly profitable in their own right? But they're also an important component of our overall value proposition. When we provide the total portfolio, all skews will benefit from the consistency we will offer in customer service coverage at the premium end of the market is an enormous opportunity for us and we are committed to making it happen. This is a market segment where as an organization, quite frankly, we have not done a good job of maximizing our opportunity across the value chain. This includes designing and producing what our customers want and differentiating our products in the marketplace. In that segment, we are actively changing that. This is part of the operational and cultural shift we are making as part of our transformation going forward, we will continuously assess market opportunities utilizing the data sets and the analytics and leverage our global assets for our customers and consumers. With one goal in mind to profitably win before I move on to our market facing strategies. I'd also like to highlight that we have continued to demonstrate remarkable growth in our US retail business. We have just delivered our best performance in more than 15 years with earnings growth driven by a focus on our value proposition to customers and an increasing customer base in well known last mile fleets. This includes converting nearly 50 stores to dual operations, supporting retail customers by day fleet customers at night. I see a lot of runway ahead of us. As we execute on these objectives, we've set out and look forward to the leverage and growing our retail operations on a forward basis while Goodyear forward continues through the end of next year. You're hearing my emphasis on the actions we're taking to elevate our performance over the long term. We're rebuilding our brand strategy, product strategy and operations, setting a solid course for the future and a direction that will drive significant opportunities for our business over the long term.

我們知道，客戶需要將我們視為提供所有高端產品線的可靠供應商。我們不能只提供部分頂級產品，而讓我們自己去選擇。第二甚至第三，在我們的經銷商看來，提供更廣泛的產品以彌補尾部偏差對我們的成功至關重要。當然，尾部傾斜本身就非常有利可圖，對吧？但它們也是我們整體價值主張的重要組成部分。當我們提供完整的產品組合時，所有類別的客戶都將受益於我們在高端市場提供的一致性客戶服務覆蓋，這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，我們致力於實現這一目標。坦白說，作為一個組織，在這個細分市場中，我們還沒有很好地充分利用我們在整個價值鏈中的機會。這包括設計和生產客戶想要的產品，並使我們的產品在市場上脫穎而出。在這一領域，我們正在積極改變這種狀況。這是我們未來轉型過程中進行的營運和文化轉變的一部分，我們將不斷利用數據集和分析來評估市場機會，並利用我們的全球資產為我們的客戶和消費者提供服務。在我開始討論面向市場的策略之前，我心中有一個目標，就是獲得獲利。我還想強調的是，我們的美國零售業務繼續表現出顯著的成長。我們剛剛取得了 15 年來的最佳業績，獲利成長主要得益於我們對客戶的價值主張的關注以及知名最後一哩車隊不斷增長的客戶群。其中包括將近 50 家商店改為雙重運營，白天為零售客戶提供支持，晚上為車隊客戶提供支援。我看到我們前面有很多跑道。在執行這些目標的過程中，我們已經制定並期待在未來的基礎上發揮槓桿作用並發展我們的零售業務，而固特異的發展也將持續到明年年底。你們聽到了我強調我們為長期提升業績所採取的行動。我們正在重建我們的品牌策略、產品策略和運營，為未來制定堅實的道路和方向，為我們的業務在長期內帶來重大機會。

Now I'll turn it over to Christina and take you through the financials and we'll move on to the Q&A Thank you.

現在我將把時間交給克里斯蒂娜，帶您了解財務狀況，然後我們進入問答環節，謝謝。

Thank you, Mark. We're on track to exceed our original target for 2024 Goodyear forward benefits by 100 million and as we look ahead to next year, we expect to achieve another 750 million in year over year growth benefits from the program.

謝謝你，馬克。我們預計將 2024 年固特異遠期收益超出原定目標 1 億美元，展望明年，我們預計該計劃將帶來另外 7.5 億美元的年成長收益。

We'll provide more detailed 2025 guidance in February but these commitments are a testament to our ongoing commitment to transforming the way we work, improving operational efficiency and managing our costs.

我們將在二月提供更詳細的2025年指導，但這些承諾證明了我們持續致力於改變工作方式、提高營運效率和管理成本。

I'll begin with the income statement on slide, nine Q3 sales were 4.8 billion down 6% from last year driven by lower volume and the negative impact of translation resulting from the stronger US dollar, unit volume was 6% lower than last year with gains in one partially offsetting declines in replacement volume was lower than what we expected given the continuation of increased low-end imports in the US and Europe segment operating income for the quarter was 347 million and so I margin increased 70 basis points.

我先從幻燈片上的損益表開始，第三季度的銷售額為 48 億美元，比去年下降 6%，原因是銷量下降以及美元走強導致的翻譯帶來的負面影響，單位銷量比去年下降 6%，其中一個增長部分抵消了替換銷量的下降，鑑於美國和歐洲部門低端進口持續增加，本季度營業收入為 3.47 億美元，因此利潤率增加了 70 個低端。

Goodyear net income includes charges related to planned rationalization programs under Goodyear forward and a noncash impairment charge related to a reduction in the balance sheet carrying value of lower tier brands including Mastercraft and Roadmaster. Stemming from increased competition in opening price points in the US market.

固特異淨收入包括與固特異未來計畫合理化方案相關的費用，以及與 Mastercraft 和 Roadmaster 等低端品牌資產負債表帳面價值減少相關的非現金減損費用。源自於美國市場開價點競爭加劇。

After adjusting for significant items, our earnings per share were $0.37.

調整重大項目後，我們的每股收益為 0.37 美元。

Turning to our segment operating income walk on slide 10 lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of 94 million in the quarter net price mix versus raw material cost was favorable. 7 million sequential pricing from the second quarter was stable.

談到我們的分部營業收入，在第 10 頁上，較低的輪胎單位產量和工廠利用率是本季度 9,400 萬美元的逆風，而原材料成本是有利的。 700 萬的定價與第二季相比保持穩定。

Goodyear forward initiatives contributed 123 million with benefits driven across all of our work streams including purchasing supply chain R&D and SAG, inflation and other costs were a headwind of 59 million.

固特異前進計畫貢獻了 1.23 億，其收益惠及我們所有的工作流程，包括採購供應鏈研發和 SAG，通貨膨脹和其他成本則造成了 5,900 萬的逆風。

Insurance proceeds net of current year expenses primarily related to last year's storm damage at our Tupelo factory were a benefit of 17 million. Other so I was favorable 25 million driven by higher earnings in our chemical business and better miscellaneous cost performance.

保險收益扣除主要與我們去年塔普洛工廠遭受的風暴損壞有關的當年費用後，為 1700 萬美元。其他方面，我預計利潤將達到 2,500 萬美元，這得益於化工業務收益增加和雜項成本績效改善。

Turning to slide, 11 net debt was 8.1 billion at the end of the third quarter and was up about 450 million compared to last year. Reflecting increases in working capital, higher working capital was driven by declines in our account's payable balances, while inventories remained high on a relative basis, reflecting reductions in our full year volume outlook in the fourth quarter. Given our normal seasonality, we expect significant cash inflows in working capital as we reduce finished goods, inventories and increased collections.

回顧下滑情況，第三季末，11家公司的淨負債為81億美元，較去年同期增加約4.5億美元。反映營運資本的增加，營運資本的增加是由於我們帳戶應付餘額的下降所致，而庫存相對仍然較高，反映出我們第四季度全年銷售預期的下降。考慮到我們的正常季節性，我們預計隨著成品和庫存的減少以及收款的增加，營運資金將有大量現金流入。

With respect to our leverage, we expect to close on the sale of the OTR business in early 2025 and we continue to make progress on our two other strategic reviews. While there's not a lot we can say while we're in process, we will keep you updated as we have more information to share.

關於我們的槓桿率，我們預計將在 2025 年初完成 OTR 業務的出售，並繼續在其他兩項策略審查方面取得進展。雖然在處理過程中我們無法透露太多信息，但一旦有更多信息可以分享，我們將及時向您通報。

One final note on our capital structure, we have 500 million outstanding on our 9.5% coupon notes due May 2025. This maturity is supported by a backup credit facility that would replace it through mid 2026 if needed.

關於我們的資本結構的最後一點說明，我們有 5 億美元未償還的 9.5% 票面利率票據將於 2025 年 5 月到期。此筆貸款由備用信貸工具提供支持，如果需要，該工具可在 2026 年中期之前替代它。

Having said that we expect to use proceeds from asset sales to repay this maturity next year, which would reduce our interest expense by almost $50 million on an annualized basis.

話雖如此，我們預計明年將利用資產出售所得來償還這筆到期債務，這將使我們的年利息支出減少近 5,000 萬美元。

Moving to our SBU results and starting on slide, 13 America's third quarter unit volume decreased 1.9 million units driven by consumer replacement.

轉到我們的 SBU 業績並開始下滑，受消費者更換影響，13 America 第三季單位銷售量減少了 190 萬台。

Low end imports in the US remained elevated during the quarter, reflecting a 17% increase year over year, the increase in imports was less so than what we saw in the first half including imports, the consumer replacement industry sell in in the US declined 1.5% and collectively industry members declined more than four times that amount.

本季美國低端進口仍維持高位，年增17%，進口增幅低於上半年的水平，包括進口在內，美國消費替代產業的銷售額下降了1.5%，整個產業成員的銷售額下降了4倍多。

On the other hand, despite weak industry trends in OE our US OE volume grew 6% reflecting share gains of 2.5 points and strong growth in light truck fitments. We also gained share in Latin America.

另一方面，儘管 OE 行業趨勢疲軟，但我們在美國的 OE 銷量仍增長了 6%，反映出份額增長了 2.5 個百分點且輕型卡車配件增長強勁。我們在拉丁美洲的市佔率也增加了。

Americas segment operating income was 251 million or 8.8% of sales.

美洲分部的營業收入為 2.51 億美元，佔銷售額的 8.8%。

Americas earnings benefited from the execution of Goodyear forward initiatives including retail sales growth of 20 million in the quarter. This growth reflects the increasing scale of our fleet customer base.

美洲區的獲利受惠於固特異前瞻性計畫的實施，包括本季零售額成長 2,000 萬。這一成長反映了我們機隊客戶群規模的不斷擴大。

These benefits were offset by the impact of lower volume and inflation.

這些好處被銷售下降和通貨膨脹的影響所抵消。

Moving to slide. 14 EMEA's third quarter unit volume decreased 3% or 300,000 units. Our volume reflects lower OE production and continuing pressure from low end imports, nonmem imports grew about 15% in the quarter.

移至幻燈片。14 EMEA 第三季銷量下降 3% 或 30 萬台。我們的產量反映了原始設備製造商生產的下降和低端進口的持續壓力，非金屬進口量在本季度增長了約 15%。

Recently, two of EMEA's premium tires were awarded the top spot by Europe's largest Auto association ad ac in their annual offseason and winter testing, which we expect to support our winter value proposition to consumers. segment operating income was 24 million and stable from a year ago. Goodyear forward actions and favorable price mix versus raw materials offset inflation and unfavorable fixed overhead absorption.

最近，歐洲最大的汽車協會 ad ac 在其年度淡季和冬季測試中將 EMEA 的兩款優質輪胎評為榜首，我們希望這能夠支持我們向消費者提供的冬季價值主張。分部營業收入為2,400萬美元，與去年同期相比維持穩定。固特異的前瞻性行動和相對於原材料的有利價格組合抵消了通貨膨脹和不利的固定間接費用吸收。

Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 15, 3rd quarter unit volume decreased 5% driven by declines in several of our key countries, industry volume in China was down 6% in OE and 4% in replacement driven by overall weak consumer sentiment.

我們來看第 15 頁的亞太地區，第三季單位銷售量下降 5%，原因是幾個主要國家的銷售量下降，而受整體消費者情緒疲軟的影響，中國產業 OE 銷售量下降 6%，取代銷售量下降 4%。

segment operating income was 72 million and nearly 12% of sales. An increase of 16 million compared to last year.

分部營業收入為7,200萬美元，佔銷售額的近12%。比去年同期增加1600萬。

Asia's earnings benefited from Goodyear forward initiatives including the redesign of our go to market model in Australia. We expect this initiative to continue to contribute benefits in 2025.

亞洲的獲利受益於固特異前瞻性舉措，包括重新設計我們在澳洲的市場模式。我們預計這項舉措將在 2025 年繼續帶來效益。

Now turning to our fourth quarter outlook on slide 17, we expect global unit volumes to decline approximately 4% reflecting elevated wholesale channel inventories and we sell out trends in the US, like we saw in the third quarter. We expect growth in our OE volume reflecting share gains in a weak us comparable related to the UAW strike. In 2023 we expect volume to be up about a million units on a sequential basis driven by stronger OE volume.

現在轉到第 17 頁的第四季展望，我們預計全球單位銷售量將下降約 4%，這反映了批發通路庫存增加以及美國的銷售趨勢，就像我們在第三季看到的那樣。我們預計，OE 銷量的成長將反映出受 UAW 罷工影響的美國市場疲軟的市佔率成長。我們預計，到 2023 年，受 OE 銷量增加的推動，銷量將比上季增加約 100 萬輛。

In addition, we expect higher unabsorbed fixed costs of 40 million driven by 1.1 million units of lower production during the third quarter.

此外，我們預計，由於第三季產量下降 110 萬台，未吸收固定成本將增加 4,000 萬美元。

Additionally, we expect our fourth quarter production to be about 1.5 million units lower than last year as we reduced finished goods inventory in line with our need.

此外，由於我們根據需要減少了成品庫存，我們預計第四季度的產量將比去年減少約 150 萬台。

This reduction will negatively impact our costs in the first quarter of 2025.

此次削減將對我們 2025 年第一季的成本產生負面影響。

Price mix is expected to be a net headwind of approximately 15 million driven by higher oe volume.

由於原廠銷量增加，價格組合預計產生約 1500 萬的淨逆風。

Raw materials will increase approximately 100 million driven by natural rubber and carbon black at current spot rates. We would expect to see raw material cost increases of about $300 million in the first half of 2025.

以當前現貨價格計算，原物料價格將因天然橡膠和炭黑上漲約 1 億美元。我們預計 2025 年上半年原物料成本將增加約 3 億美元。

Goodyear forward will drive benefits of 165 million reflecting the progress we're seeing across all work streams.

固特異前進將帶來 1.65 億美元的收益，這反映了我們在所有工作流程中看到的進展。

Inflation and other costs are expected to be a headwind of about 35 million and other is expected to be a benefit of about 40 million. Reflecting higher earnings in our other tire related businesses. The recovery from the fire in our Dambisa Poland factory last year and better miscellaneous cost performance.

通貨膨脹和其他成本預計將帶來約 3,500 萬的逆風，其他成本預計將帶來約 4,000 萬的收益。反映了我們其他輪胎相關業務的更高收益。我們波蘭丹比薩工廠從去年火災中恢復過來，雜項成本表現也更好了。

Other financial assumptions on slide, 18 have been updated to reflect our most recent expectations in total, there's not a significant change to our free cash flow drivers from our last call.

投影片 18 上的其他財務假設已更新，以反映我們最近的整體預期，與上次預測相比，我們的自由現金流驅動因素沒有發生重大變化。

I'll speak to two of the more significant changes. With the first being that we've reduced our restructuring costs as we've seen lower cash outlays than expected in specific programs given higher levels of voluntary attrition.

我將談兩個比較重大的變化。首先，我們降低了重組成本，因為考慮到自願減員水準較高，我們發現特定項目的現金支出低於預期。

Second, we've updated our working capital guidance from neither a source or use to a use of approximately 150 to $200 million.

其次，我們已更新我們的營運資本指引，從既無來源也無用途更新為用途約為 1.5 億至 2 億美元。

This increase is partly driven by the timing of production cuts and partly by plans to increase finished goods inventory in advance of actions. We expect to take in early 2025 to reduce our structural costs.

這種成長部分是由於減產的時機，部分是由於在採取行動之前計劃增加成品庫存。我們預計在 2025 年初採取措施降低結構性成本。

We expect to recover this outflow next year with that, we'll open the line for your questions.

我們預計明年這筆資金流出將會恢復，屆時我們將開通熱線回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

John Healy with North Coast research.

北海岸研究機構的約翰希利 (John Healy) 說。

Thanks for taking my question. Mark, I just wanted to ask kind of a high level question on the margin targets that you guys have put out. Especially if you look at next year. I mean, you, you kind of call out 300 million headwind on raw mats. And, you know, the, the volume side has probably been a bit more challenging. I'd love to get more color on, on what's incrementally better. And I imagine you're going to answer it with good year forward, to get to those margin targets. But I was hoping you could kind of like give us kind of a look underneath the kind of surface a little bit of, of kind of where within the plan or where within other areas of the business. You know, you're finding those incremental benefits. Thanks.

感謝您回答我的問題。馬克，我只是想問一個關於你們提出的利潤目標的高層問題。特別是如果你展望明年。我的意思是，你在原料材料上喊出了 3 億的逆風。而且，您知道，數量方面可能更具挑戰性。我希望能夠獲得更多的色彩，了解哪些東西會逐漸變得更好。我想你會回答說，明年會很好，可以實現這些利潤目標。但我希望您能讓我們稍微深入了解該計劃或其他業務領域的情況。你知道，你正在尋找那些增量效益。謝謝。

Thanks John. And yeah, just to, to, to cover what what we're going through with, as you mentioned, a key part of it is good year forward. But one of the things we've been doing throughout the course of this year as we continue to refill the pipeline of projects in Goodyear forward and good year forward is a, is a, is a two year point in time, right? This year and next year. But what we're doing is integrating that into to our annual operating plan as well as our long term strategies, John. And of course, we've got all the pricing dynamics associated with raw materials. So with the, the O ems and the natural flex up and down with indexation. But when we look at it, it's, it's far more than just a good year forward. And what, what is helping with those margins, right. We are fundamentally changing the way we're doing our businesses as we shared earlier this year. We've got, and we've really broken manufacturing and we're in the final stages of, of bringing on our, our Chief Manufacturing Officer for all three regions around the world. And what we're doing there is really focusing on our plant efficiencies. We're reducing our scrap. We're driving our, our plant oe operating equipment effectiveness on a week-by-week basis by process. And, and so that's a whole lot of the nuts and bolts of manufacturing 101. And then as I mentioned as well, we are strongly driving with dedicated teams that have been pulled out to make sure we are tackling the 18 inch and above rem size into the premium parts of the market, you know, and as I, as I shared in the in the opener, you know, one of the things when we take a look at it, it's something that we've not done the best job overall globally to, to really tackle that situation. And so what we've done is we've pulled the folks out. We've established the teams, we are driving it from engineering. We have dedicated resources in the plant, dedicated machinery to bring those products to market. We're leveraging our global footprint as well to, to move tires around the world in a very cost effective way. In the meantime, even as we speak, we've got 90 plus skews on the water on the way to the Americas market from a Maya to address the tier one high end, what we would call the tail skews, but the premium side of the greater than 18 inch and above. And so we have a very clear road map over the next 24 months of bringing those in as well as the coverage and the fitments we have across those. So we are making sure that we have got the right replacements coming into the market in the Americas. The May has been doing a really nice job of that of filling their gaps. And then on the AP side, we continue to have very strong wins with the right customers if you would say in the, in the EV space. So really focusing all three of those. So it's, it's it's top line fitment wins, it's top line premium segment wins and it's really just good old fashioned manufacturing and purchasing one on ones. And the teams are doing a really nice job to make the, to make the progress.

謝謝約翰。是的，只是為了介紹我們正在經歷的事情，正如你所提到的，其中一個關鍵部分是迎接美好的一年。但是，我們今年一直在做的事情之一就是繼續補充固特異和固特異未來計畫管道，這是一個為期兩年的時間點，對嗎？今年和明年。但我們正在做的是將其融入我們的年度營運計劃以及長期策略中，約翰。當然，我們掌握了與原材料相關的所有定價動態。因此，O ems 會隨著指數化而自然地上下彎曲。但當我們審視它時，它遠遠不止是美好的一年。那麼什麼對這些利潤有幫助呢？正如我們今年早些時候所分享的那樣，我們正在從根本上改變我們的經營方式。我們已經真正打破了製造業的格局，我們正處於為全球三個地區任命首席製造官的最後階段。我們所做的其實就是專注於工廠的效率。我們正在減少廢料。我們正在按週按流程提高我們工廠的運作設備的效率。這就是製造業 101 的大部分細節。然後正如我之前提到的，我們正在大力推動專門的團隊，以確保我們能夠將 18 英寸及以上的 REM 尺寸打入市場的高端部分，你知道，正如我在開幕式上分享的那樣，當我們審視它時，我們發現，在全球範圍內，我們還沒有做得最好，沒有真正解決這個問題。所以，我們所做的就是把這些人撤出來。我們已經建立了團隊，並正從工程角度推動工作。我們在工廠擁有專門的資源和專用的機器來將這些產品推向市場。我們也利用我們的全球影響力，以非常經濟有效的方式將輪胎運往世界各地。同時，就在我們說話的時候，我們已經有 90 多個傾斜船在從瑪雅號運往美洲市場的途中，以滿足一級高端市場的需求，我們稱之為尾部傾斜，但大於 18 英寸及以上的優質船。因此，我們在未來 24 個月內有一個非常清晰的路線圖，包括引入這些技術以及覆蓋範圍和組裝情況。因此，我們要確保向美洲市場提供合適的替代品。梅在填補空缺方面做得非常出色。然後在 AP 方面，如果你願意說在 EV 領域，我們繼續與合適的客戶取得非常強勁的勝利。因此真正關注的是這三個方面。所以，這是頂線組裝的勝利，這是頂線高端市場的勝利，這實際上只是傳統意義上的一對一製造和採購。各個團隊都表現出色，並且取得了進展。

Great. Thank you. And, and then just one question, there's been some media reports out there about you guys in, in a TD and, and some of the things they're going through right now, was just wondering if you could give us a little color on kind of the exposure there and I imagine it's with the Cooper brand. But secondly, I mean, if you see that kind of update in the market regarding what's going on with them, you know, how does it make you feel about kind of your distribution strategy and, and how you might see, you know, the ripple effect of, of this, you know, news maybe playing out on the industry in the replacement market for, for 25. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。然後，只有一個問題，有一些媒體報道你們在 TD 中的情況，以及他們現在正在經歷的一些事情，我只是想知道你是否可以給我們介紹一下那裡的曝光情況，我想這是與 Cooper 品牌有關的。其次，我的意思是，如果你看到市場上關於他們情況的更新，你會對你的分銷策略有何感想，以及你可能會如何看待這些新聞對替代市場行業產生的連鎖反應。謝謝。

Yeah, maybe I'll, I'll start and then I'll turn it to to Christina with some more details on it, John, but you know, we really maybe to start on the, on your comment to Tirehub, right? I mean, of course, a situation like a second bankruptcy with a tatd can be quite disruptive, but, but we really view that situation as a as a strong validation that the the team took and Goodyear took in forming Tirehub some years back as well as getting closer to our line distribution network. You know, we have restructured our our sales and go to market organization within the Americas within the last month to be even closer to our WD customers. And and from that standpoint as well as working on our Tirehub. But, you know, we're going to continue to focus on the value propositions where we can deliver products to consumers, you know, right place, right time, right, cost structure and and from the A TD side, you know, we'll let Christina cover about the receivable a little bit. But you know, we continue to evaluate any, any strategic alternatives in terms of what's, what's playing out right now. Christina.

是的，也許我會開始，然後我會把它交給克里斯蒂娜並提供更多細節，約翰，但你知道，我們真的可能從你對 Tirehub 的評論開始，對吧？我的意思是，當然，像 TATD 第二次破產這樣的情況可能會造成很大的破壞，但是，我們確實認為這種情況是對團隊和固特異幾年前成立 Tirehub 以及接近我們的線路分銷網絡所採取的有力驗證。您知道，我們上個月重組了我們在美洲的銷售和市場組織，以便更加貼近我們的 WD 客戶。而從這個角度來看，我們也致力於輪胎輪轂的研究。但是，您知道，我們將繼續專注於價值主張，我們可以在正確的時間、正確的地點、正確的成本結構將產品交付給消費者，從 A TD 方面來看，您知道，我們會讓克里斯蒂娜稍微介紹一下應收帳款。但你知道，我們會根據目前的情況繼續評估任何策略替代方案。克里斯蒂娜。

Yes, John, I'll just fill in some of the, the history for folks on the phone who may not know about our past relationships with A TD. I think you're probably well aware. So, A TD, one of our largest wholesale distributors filed chapter 11, as Mark just mentioned, this is the second time that A TD has filed for protection, bankruptcy protection since 2018. And back in 2018, Goodyear didn't have a relationship with a TD. At that time, we had exited it. Just given that we saw a TD as increasing their focus on lower tier brands. But of course, through the acquisition of Cooper, we re acquired an ongoing relationship with a TD, which we've maintained. Now our current receivable base with a TD stands at about $135 million. And as is customary in these situations, the court did enter an interim order authorizing a TD to pay prepetition claims of certain vendors. And at this point, we have reached an agreement with a TD regarding the payment of substantially all of our prepetition claims. And so we don't see a material impact on us at all from this situation. I think for context, what I would tell you is that the and you asked a little bit earlier, John that the majority of these tires that we're selling to a TD today are private label branded. There's a little bit of mastercraft, Mickey Thompson and Cooper there, but the majority, again, private label branded.

是的，約翰，我只會向那些可能不知道我們與 A TD 過去關係的電話中的人介紹一些歷史記錄。我想你可能很清楚。因此，我們最大的批發分銷商之一 A TD 申請了第 11 章破產保護，正如馬克剛才提到的，這是自 2018 年以來 A TD 第二次申請保護，破產保護。而在 2018 年，固特異與 TD 還沒有任何關係。那時，我們已經退出了。鑑於我們看到 TD 正在增加對低端品牌的關注。但當然，透過收購 Cooper，我們與 TD 重新建立了持續的合作關係，並一直維持著這種關係。現在我們目前的應收帳款基數約為 1.35 億美元。按照此類情況的慣例，法院確實發布了一項臨時命令，授權 TD 支付某些供應商的破產前索賠。目前，我們已與 TD 達成協議，涉及支付幾乎所有的破產前索賠。因此，我們認為這種情況不會對我們產生任​​何實質影響。我認為就背景而言，我要告訴你的是，約翰，你之前問過，我們今天賣給 TD 的大多數輪胎都是自有品牌的。其中有一些大師級作品，例如米奇湯普森 (Mickey Thompson) 和庫柏 (Cooper)，但大多數還是自有品牌。

Great. Thank you so much.

偉大的。太感謝了。

Thank you. We'll take our next question from James Picarello with BMP Parabus.

謝謝。我們將回答 BMP Parabus 的 James Picarello 的下一個問題。

Hey, everybody. So, I want to first, I want to first ask about the demand environment. You know, if we look at the last nine quarters in North America, your your replacement volumes are down on average 9%. I'm just curious if you could assess your, your market share over this period, right? Comparing now to the middle part of 2022 it's just at a high level because I, I'm I'm just curious like, is this a generational type, you know, market share shift that we're seeing which could be temporary, but like in terms of the magnitude and persistence of the weakness. And I know there's an element of, of actively exiting certain business as part of your forward plan. So if you could contextualize, you know that as well, your relative these declines, that would be great. Thanks.

嘿，大家好。所以，首先我想問需求環境。你知道，如果我們看看北美過去的九個季度，你的替代品數量平均下降了 9%。我只是好奇您能否評估一下您在這段時間內的市場份額，對嗎？與 2022 年中期相比，現在處於較高水平，因為我很好奇，這是不是我們看到的代際市場份額轉變，這種轉變可能是暫時的，但就疲軟的程度和持續性而言。我知道，在你的未來計畫中，有主動退出某些業務的因素。因此，如果您能夠將其具體化，您也知道這些相對的下降，那就太好了。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. So maybe I can, I'll start in the and then let Christina add some additional too. You know, when we look at at that period, as you said, as we mentioned, you know, there's been a continued influx in the in the tier four market space with the, the Asian tires and and specifically, you know, when we look at the inventories of those at the moment, believe it could be a pre buy of people being concerned about tariffs that may or may not happen coming into the New Year. But one of the things was we look, we have, as you mentioned, we definitely have had a very clear plan to exit low margin, low value business and we've executed upon that. We've done re pricing in those areas as well. And the others I mentioned, you know, with the question with John as well, is really us focusing on that greater than 18 to increase the number of skews we've got in that marketplace. So we will, we will very meaningfully participate and grow our share in the upper part of the tier ones on it, James.

是的，當然。所以也許我可以，我會從開始，然後讓克里斯蒂娜也添加一些額外的內容。您知道，當我們回顧那個時期時，正如您所說，正如我們所提到的，您知道，四線市場領域持續湧入亞洲輪胎，特別是當我們查看目前的庫存時，相信這可能是人們的預購，因為他們擔心新年期間可能會發生或不會發生的關稅。但正如您所說，我們確實有一個非常明確的計劃，即退出低利潤、低價值的業務，而且我們已經執行了這個計劃。我們也對這些區域進行了重新定價。我提到的其他問題，以及約翰提出的問題，實際上是我們關注的是大於 18 的數字，以增加我們在該市場上的偏差數量。因此，我們將非常有意義地參與其中，並增加我們在第一層級上部的份額，詹姆斯。

Yeah, James, I'll just jump in here just to say that as part of Goodyear forward. You may remember on the walk as part of our November announcement last year, we talked about a reduction in revenue primarily in the US of about $200 million which equates to about 2 to 3 million units of intentional volume loss and that's fixing, you know, the unprofitable volume that was in our footprint as part of Goodyear forward. I think, you know, broadly, you know, your your question around, you know, we just said the generational shift, I'd say, you know that the sell in is way outperforming what we're seeing on sell out. I mean, we're seeing VMT kind of up, about 1% over the last year and sell in up 3 to 4 points globally. And so that's a whole lot of prebuy going on with the low end products. I think that says a lot about distributor behavior because what we tend to see is distributors overstocking in and around inflationary environments, of course, which we've been in. But also, you know, there's potential speculation related to the election here today. And so we'll we'll continue to watch the regulatory environment and the macro environment over the coming quarters.

是的，詹姆斯，我只是想在這裡說一下固特異前進的一部分。您可能還記得，在去年 11 月的公告中，我們談到主要在美國減少約 2 億美元的收入，這相當於故意損失約 200 萬至 300 萬個單位的銷量，這是為了解決固特異業務足跡中無利可圖的銷量問題。我認為，從廣義上講，你的問題是，我們剛才談到了世代轉變，我想說，你知道，賣出的表現遠遠超過我們所看到的賣出。我的意思是，我們看到 VMT 有所上升，比去年同期增長了約 1%，全球銷量增長了 3 到 4 個百分點。所以低階產品的預購量很大。我認為這在很大程度上反映了分銷商的行為，因為我們往往看到分銷商在通膨環境中過度存貨，而我們也一直處於通膨環境中。但您也知道，今天的選舉可能存在一些猜測。因此，我們將在未來幾季繼續關注監管環境和宏觀環境。

So.

所以。

That's, that's super helpful. And then my next question is it going to be on price mix versus raw? So, for the, you know, the fourth quarter, right, the, the guidance is, is abundantly clear, right? Calling for a net 115 million headwind, right, which we haven't seen a negative number since the second quarter of 2019. You know, and, and, and, and certainly not to this magnitude. So what's what's driving the, the fourth quarter delta?

這，這非常有幫助。然後我的下一個問題是有關價格組合與原料的關係嗎？所以，對於第四季來說，指導是非常明確的，對吧？預計淨虧損為 1.15 億，對吧，自 2019 年第二季以來我們還沒有見過負數。您知道，而且，而且，而且肯定不會達到這種程度。那麼，是什麼因素推動了第四季的成長呢？

And then, you know, how should we be extend that, that thought to to next year where we know in the first half at current spot, you'll have that 300 million raw mats headwind. What does or what, you know, how could price mix look in, in that you know, in that equation for the first half. Thanks.

然後，您知道，我們應該如何將這個想法延續到明年，我們知道在目前的情況下，上半年您將面臨 3 億原料材料的逆風。您知道，在上半年的那個等式中，價格組合看起來是什麼樣的呢？謝謝。

Yeah, it's as we look to the first of it, as you know, as we said earlier, right? I mean, it's, it's more than just the raw material going into the pricing equation, right. We've got many factors going in. It is our product position in the marketplace. It is making sure, you know, through our, our public web scrapes and, and constantly viewing the market. And also the tech tech needed going to develop it in terms of what it's costing to bring things to market. As you know mentioned with John James, we have, we have really been attacking that underlying cost structure of what it costs to bring products to market as well as the actual cost to convert on those. So when you add all of those things together, we we continue to take it on a skew by skew competitive level of where we will take pricing and where we won't take pricing with that. So just as the normal course of business with that and that, that flows into, into our regular governance process for that, right? But we want to make sure that, that we've got the products competitive price for our end consumers.

是的，正如我們之前所說的，這是我們首先看到的，對吧？我的意思是，定價方程式中不僅僅考慮原材料，對吧。我們考慮了很多因素。這是我們的產品在市場上的地位。您知道，這是透過我們的公共網路抓取資料並不斷觀察市場來確保的。此外，從將產品推向市場的成本來看，還需要開發相應的技術。正如您和約翰詹姆斯所提到的，我們確實在攻克將產品推向市場所需的潛在成本結構以及產品實際轉換成本。因此，當你將所有這些因素加在一起時，我們就會繼續在競爭水平上逐漸決定在哪裡採取定價，在哪裡不採取定價。因此，就像正常的業務流程一樣，這也將納入我們的常規治理流程，對嗎？但我們想確保我們為最終消費者提供有競爭力的產品價格。

Oh, go ahead.

噢，請說吧。

I was just going to jump into to say that as a reminder about 30% of our business cover through o M I contract so that can help you think about how to play that through without any new price increases, you know, announcements. You know, we, we don't, you know, articulate what we're thinking about for pricing in advance. And I'd say the other comment on raw mats still is, you know, just given the, the sell in and the sell out dynamics we talked about earlier with sell in being so much higher than sell out. I think that's influencing raw material prices as well. And I would expect commodity pricing to normalize as pre buy of low imports stabilizes as well. But go ahead and ask your follow up.

我只是想提醒一下，我們的約 30% 業務是透過 o M I 合約來覆蓋的，這可以幫助您思考如何在沒有任何新價格上漲或公告的情況下完成這項任務。你知道，我們不會提前清楚地說明我們對定價的想法。我想說的關於原料的另一個評論仍然是，你知道，考慮到我們之前談到的賣入和賣出的動態，賣入量遠高於賣出量。我認為這也會影響原物料價格。而且我預計，隨著低進口預購量的穩定，商品價格也將恢復正常。但請繼續詢問你的後續情況。

Or should it? Yeah. So just on, on Capex. So I I thought the prior view might have been for 2025 Capex to trend similarly to the two this year at that 1.25 billion range, you did confirm or indicate in the in the deck that next year's Capex should trend below a billion. So maybe that's a 300 million type cut to your, to your Capex. So, what's driving that? And then for this year's guide, the working capital is now a use of cash of 150 to 200. Is that associated with the A TD receivable? And does that get made up, get made up next year? That's it for me. Thanks.

或者應該嗎？是的。因此，只需關注資本支出。因此，我認為先前的觀點可能是 2025 年的資本支出趨勢可能與今年的相似，都在 12.5 億美元的範圍內，您確實在簡報中確認或指出明年的資本支出應該趨於 10 億美元以下。所以這也許會對您的資本支出造成 3 億美元的削減。那麼，是什麼原因導致的呢？然後，對於今年的指南，營運資金現在是使用 150 到 200 的現金。這與 A TD 應收帳款相關嗎？明年能彌補嗎？對我來說就是這樣了。謝謝。

Yeah, I'll take the cash question. So of working capital. You're right. You know, there, the guidance would have been sort of a stable level in 2025. Now, we're saying something lower than DNA or less than a billion dollars. I think part of that driven by the trends in volume. But I also think a part of that is driven by a lot of the good year forward work inside of the company as we've looked at how we've been allocating capital mark. And I have concluded that we need to reassess our standards and our processes to ensure we're getting the best cost outcomes in all of our cases. I think we're challenging a lot our assumptions around capital spend. That means, you know, we go back to designing for lowest cost as opposed to a process, maybe where in the past, there might have been more customization involved that wasn't necessarily adding to the return. So all to say, you know, we're focused on generating a very strong free cash flow next year excluding restructuring and we're focused on moving to a more disciplined capital allocation process and I expect that to benefit our spend even as we move beyond 2025 as well.

是的，我來回答關於現金的問題。營運資金也是如此。你說得對。您知道，到 2025 年，指導水準將會保持穩定。現在，我們說的是低於 DNA 或少於 10 億美元。我認為部分原因是數量趨勢所致。但我還認為，其中一部分是由公司內部的大量新年展望工作所推動的，因為我們已經研究瞭如何分配資本標記。我的結論是，我們需要重新評估我們的標準和流程，以確保我們在所有案件中都能獲得最佳的成本結果。我認為我們正在對資本支出的假設提出很多挑戰。這意味著，你知道，我們重新回到以最低成本為目標的設計，而不是一個流程，也許在過去，可能會涉及更多的客製化，而這並不一定會增加回報。總而言之，您知道，我們專注於在明年創造非常強勁的自由現金流（不包括重組），我們專注於轉向更規範的資本配置流程，我預計即使我們超越 2025 年，這也將有利於我們的支出。

Yeah, James, I'll I'll bolt on to it a little bit from a from a manufacturing engineering and procurement side of it. As as Christina mentioned, right, the the work streams of of the Goodyear forward teams across the five right are all helping to to show us different ways of working as well. Christina and I staff have been been out on the road in both Europe as Eastern Europe, Middle East and Asia over the last month and a half as well. Meeting with our equipment suppliers, purchasing teams going into the factories and looking at our best processes. And I'll say the the procurement team is doing an excellent job of looking at at alternative 2nd and 3rd sources together with engineering and our standards team to redefine what our standards are and what the cost, a clean sheeting cost process. With some of the new folks we've brought in to to help our teams to to complete those processes and really make a big dent in what we would typically spend in a given year on the CapEx side. So all those things and coupling it with our, our product engineering teams, looking at bottlenecks in the process that we were just at the Tar Mold factory. One of them two week ago, looking at bottleneck operations and breakthroughs to, to bring some of our t mold capabilities up over 20%. So some meaningful changes in terms of the amount of CapEx needed to to, to bring the products to market James.

是的，詹姆斯，我將從製造工程和採購方面對此進行一些補充。正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的，固特異五個前進團隊的工作流程都在幫助我們展示不同的工作方式。在過去一個半月裡，克里斯蒂娜和我的員工一直在歐洲、東歐、中東和亞洲奔波。與我們的設備供應商會面，採購團隊進入工廠並了解我們的最佳流程。我想說的是，採購團隊正在與工程團隊和標準團隊一起研究替代的第二和第三來源，以重新定義我們的標準是什麼以及成本是多少，這是一個乾淨的成本流程。我們引進了一些新員工來幫助我們的團隊完成這些流程，並真正大幅減少了我們在特定年份在資本支出方面的支出。所以，我們將所有這些事情與我們的產品工程團隊結合起來，研究我們在 Tar Mold 工廠過程中遇到的瓶頸。其中一次是在兩週前，我們研究了瓶頸操作和突破，以使我們的部分 T 模具能力提高 20% 以上。因此，在將產品推向市場所需的資本支出金額方面，詹姆斯做出了一些有意義的改變。

Just to follow up on that working capital question. So our guidance is for a use of 150 to $200 million this year, I'd say that's driven by two factors. One is the timing of production cuts and the second is just a, a planned build and finished goods inventories. Ahead of actions. We expect to take early next year to reduce our structural costs and no announcements at this time. But I think all related to Goodyear forward and we would expect to recoup that use of working capital in 2025. So no net change and good free cash flow generation again in 2025.

只是想跟進一下營運資金問題。因此，我們的預期是今年使用 1.5 億至 2 億美元，我認為這是由兩個因素驅動的。一是減產的時機，二是計畫興建和成品庫存。先採取行動。我們預計在明年年初降低結構性成本，目前還未發布任何公告。但我認為所有這些都與固特異的未來有關，我們預計在 2025 年收回營運資金的使用。因此，2025 年不會出現淨變化，並且會再次產生良好的自由現金流。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Douglas Carson with Bank of America.

謝謝。美國銀行的道格拉斯·卡森。

Great. Thanks guys. I want to maybe talk about the good year forward program a little bit. It's, you know, impressive program and important strategic initiative. And maybe we can go to just to slide 6.

偉大的。謝謝大家。也許我想稍微談談美好的一年展望計畫。你知道，這是令人印象深刻的計劃和重要的策略舉措。也許我們可以直接看投影片 6。

The biggest line item there is footprint and plant optimization and it looks like it could be a $500 million number annualized in 2025. Can you just give us a little thought around on, on, on what that plant optimization could look like and how you're going to try to achieve that? And then I have a follow up on, on inventories.

其中最大的項目是佔地面積和工廠優化，看起來到 2025 年每年可能達到 5 億美元。您能否稍微向我們闡述工廠優化的具體內容以及您將如何實現這一目標？然後我會跟進庫存狀況。

Yeah, Douglas. So when we look at at Goodyear for our plan, you know, we've already executed two of the key restructuring activities when it comes to plant rationalizations. And that's the folda and the first of all the, all of the government and and union discussions are completed and that is now moved into the execution mode for that. And we continue to look around the world. We've just finished the closure of our Malaysia plant, which you know, had was in September. I think when we have completely finished that activity and that's in the sale process for the land at the moment. And and as we look forward again, we'll continue to assess how much capacity we need around the world. Going through the modernization efforts as well as we've shared with you guys before. That's a key part of the good year forward. And our long-term strategy, particularly in the areas of automation, as well as the equipment standards. We just touched on from, from James' question around the Capex usage. So, we will long story short, we will continue to look and take the actions necessary to keep us competitive.

是的，道格拉斯。因此，當我們研究固特異的計劃時，您知道，在工廠合理化方面，我們已經執行了兩項關鍵的重組活動。這就是重點，首先，所有政府和工會的討論都已完成，現在已進入執行模式。我們將繼續放眼世界。我們剛剛關閉了馬來西亞工廠，你知道，那是在九月。我認為當我們完全完成該活動時，目前正在進行土地的銷售過程。展望未來，我們將持續評估全球需要多少產能。正如我們之前與大家分享的那樣，我們正在經歷現代化的努力。這是迎接美好一年的關鍵部分。以及我們的長期策略，特別是在自動化領域以及設備標準方面。我們剛剛談到了詹姆斯關於資本支出使用的問題。長話短說，我們將繼續尋找並採取必要的行動來保持我們的競爭力。

Great. If I could just ask one or two more, the net leverage target is, is a great target 2 to 2.5, net leverage by the end of 2025. Is there a reason you're, you're committed to such a low leverage, your number, that's pretty low relative to your historic leverage for for many high you companies just want to maybe you take a look at that kind of big picture.

偉大的。如果我可以再問一兩個問題的話，淨槓桿目標是一個偉大的目標，到 2025 年底，淨槓桿率將達到 2 到 2.5。您致力於將槓桿率維持在如此低的水平，有什麼理由嗎？

Yeah, it does, I think. Yeah, the interest rate environment and our access to capital are big drivers of our goal to achieve a more investment grade credit rating or balance sheet. I think when we look across the tier one space, our major competitors also have balance sheets that are less than less than two turn leverage. So I think a lot of it's, you know, the competitive dynamics, we want to be equally situated as we think about fixed asset coverage costs and interest coverage costs. And I&I also think that, you know, our, our goal after the acquisition of Cooper was to get drive net leverage down below three times. You know, when we went through the the review as part of our strategic and operational review committee last year, you know, we had identified, you know, at three different assets for divestiture that enabled us to drive to this lower outcome over just a couple of years. So put all those together and it, you know, it leads to, you know, a really nice healthy leverage for us by the end of next year.

是的，我認為是這樣。是的，利率環境和我們的資本獲取管道是我們實現更高投資等級信用評級或資產負債表目標的重要驅動力。我認為，當我們縱觀一級市場時，我們的主要競爭對手的資產負債表槓桿率也低於兩倍。所以我認為，很大程度上，你知道，競爭動態，我們希望在考慮固定資產覆蓋成本和利息覆蓋成本時處於平等地位。而 I&I 也認為，我們收購 Cooper 之後的目標是將淨槓桿率降至三倍以下。您知道，當我們去年作為策略和營運審查委員會的一部分進行審查時，您知道，我們已經確定了三種不同的資產需要剝離，這使我們能夠在短短幾年內實現這一較低的結果。所以把所有這些放在一起，到明年年底，它將為我們帶來非常好的健康槓桿。

That's great. That's great. And, and this last question for me, as far as inventory in the system or in the market, do you think we're kind of heading towards normalization there? Do, how do you feel about the inventory picture? Looks, you're doing some great changes on your mix and kind of going upscale to some more premium product, but just maybe a little color on, on inventories and and how that could affect global unit volumes.

那太棒了。那太棒了。最後一個問題是，就係統或市場中的庫存而言，您認為我們是否正在走向正常化？請問，您對庫存照片有什麼感覺？看起來，你們正在對產品組合進行一些重大改變，並將產品推向更高端的檔次，但可能只是在庫存上做了一點改動，以及這會如何影響全球單位銷售。

Maybe to start with the EMEA, right? So last year was much heavier when it came to the inventory levels. And the overall channel inventory in AA is about 10% lower than the prior year. With the destocking that that happened. And then the winter inventories are also about 15% lower. But we've been really working hard to build that inventory for the for the winter as the selling season is beginning there. But the and the sell out trends have been really good from that side on the US side, you know, it is as Christina mentioned, the the channels overall channel inventory is is pretty heavy with the low end tiers of of an assumption of some pre buy that people did. But when we look at the from our inventory levels, right, I think that we are, we're in an overall pretty good shape in terms of there's not a big Overstock or a destocking situation, it's pretty level set. Christina.

也許從 EMEA 開始，對嗎？因此，去年的庫存水準要高得多。AA 的整體通路庫存比前一年下降了約 10%。隨著庫存的減少，這種情況也發生了。冬季庫存也下降了約 15%。但由於銷售季節即將開始，我們一直在努力為冬季儲備庫存。但從美國這邊來看，銷售趨勢非常好，正如克里斯蒂娜所提到的那樣，通路的整體通路庫存相當沉重，因為人們認為低端層級的產品是預購的。但是當我們從庫存水準來看時，我認為我們總體上處於相當好的狀況，沒有大量的庫存過剩或去庫存的情況，庫存水準相當穩定。克里斯蒂娜。

No, I agree with that. I mean, doug that the comments that we made a little bit earlier, there's been a lot of prebuy of low end inventory by a lot of distributors. But I think, and I think that will take a couple of quarters to to sell through, you know, our our inventory is generally very healthy, especially in EMEA where, you know, Mark was just discussing very low in, in winter, in particular.

不，我同意。我的意思是，我們之前說過，很多經銷商都預購了大量低階庫存。但我認為，這將需要幾個季度的時間才能銷售完畢，你知道，我們的庫存總體上非常健康，特別是在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，你知道，馬克剛才討論了庫存非常低的情況，尤其是在冬季。

Right. Very helpful. I think that that's it for me. I appreciate the answers. Thanks

正確的。非常有幫助。我想對我來說就這樣了。我很感激您的回答。謝謝

Thank you. Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan.

謝謝。摩根大通的瑞安布林克曼 (Ryan Brinkman)。

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. It was encouraging to see the margin expansion in the Americas. Despite the 8.3% volume decline in the quarter. It's clear you and other us T MA members, you know, continue to DTO but with the NON US T MA tires, you know, seemingly continuing to build there in the channel or at least, certainly not the stock. And I'm just curious what you think that those latest changes and channel inventory and demand imply for the industry pricing and shipment backdrop next year versus what backdrop might be needed for you to achieve your 2025 and margin targets.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。看到美洲的利潤率擴大是令人鼓舞的。儘管本季銷量下降了 8.3%。很明顯，您和美國 T MA 的其他成員繼續進行 DTO，但非美國 T MA 輪胎似乎繼續在渠道中生產，或者至少肯定不是庫存。我只是好奇，您認為這些最新的變化、通路庫存和需求對明年的行業定價和出貨背景意味著什麼，以及您實現 2025 年和利潤目標可能需要什麼背景。

Yeah, thanks Ryan. I think that when we look at the, you know, the, the pricing and, and in consumer behaviors on a on a tier one, upper tier two are, are different from the lower tier three, tier four types of entry level products. And the, and the value side as, as Christina mentioned from our, our side of it. And as I mentioned at the beginning, right, we are really focusing on adding to the skews in the upper part of the market, the those particular tail skews leveraging our global footprint. So on a best cost basis. And then from the standpoint though of, of having a product in the, we would call it the tier two level, right from our Mastercraft brand, we will continue on a cost on a cost effective basis to supply skews for our customer base who who want those products, but we will do it in a profitable way.

是的，謝謝 Ryan。我認為，當我們觀察第一線、二線以上產品的定價和消費者行為時，與三線、四線以下產品的入門級產品有所不同。正如克里斯蒂娜從我們的角度提到的那樣，還有價值方面。正如我在開始時提到的那樣，我們真正關注的是增加市場上部的傾斜，那些特定的尾部傾斜利用了我們的全球影響力。因此以最佳成本為基礎。然後從擁有產品的角度來看，我們稱之為二級水平，從我們的 Mastercraft 品牌開始，我們將繼續以具有成本效益的方式為需要這些產品的客戶群提供產品，但我們會以有利可圖的方式來做。

Great, thanks. And then you know, with the definitive agreement for the sale of the OTR business. Now behind you and understanding you are of course limited in what you can share with regard to the two other planned dispositions specifically. Are you may be able to update though, you know, with regard to your approach to the process generally. So, for example, would you say that the timing for the overall process is tracking roughly as expected? Or maybe if you might be more focused on maximizing proceeds or finding the correct fit versus completing a transaction within a set period of time or how should investors be thinking about the process generally?

太好了，謝謝。然後你知道，還有關於出售 OTR 業務的最終協議。現在，您已經了解並了解，關於另外兩項計劃的安排，您可以分享的資訊當然是有限的。不過，您是否能夠更新一下您對整個流程的整體處理方法。那麼，例如，您是否認為整個過程的時間安排大致符合預期？或者，您可能更專注於最大化收益或找到正確的選擇，而不是在規定的時間內完成交易，或者投資者應該如何考慮整個過程？

Hi Brian, I'll jump in here and I think all of those variables you just talked about are important for us. You know, when we think about the other two asset sales, in general, I'd say we are where we expected to be at this point in the process and we continue to feel really confident about our ability to meet our objectives. We're certainly focused first on driving the right value for our shareholders and we'll take, we'll take the time that's required to that end.

嗨，布萊恩，我插話說，我認為你剛才談到的所有變數對我們都很重要。你知道，當我們考慮另外兩項資產出售時，總的來說，我會說我們正處於我們預期的階段，我們仍然對我們實現目標的能力充滿信心。我們當然首先致力於為股東創造正確的價值，並且我們將花費必要的時間來實現這一目標。

Okay, thanks. And just finally, you know, I was intrigued by the comments in the prepared remarks about the retail operations, serving, you know, the retail customers by day. I guess I should call them the company owned stores, you know, and the fleet customers by night, maybe you could expand upon that. And I recall, you know, at the time of the good year forward plan, when it was first unveiled, you'd identified a number of opportunities to improve the operations and profitability of the company owned stores as a reason to not sell them. You know, with the fleet services including last mile delivery, you know, being maybe the biggest such opportunity, is there an update you can give on the profitability of, of your company owned stores or, or their relative success and, and as you continue to make progress here, hopefully, you know, does that, do you think makes the retail stores just to kind of dress them up, make them more attractive as a disposition candidate, given their greater greater profitability? And so, maybe implied greater potential proceeds or, or does it make them more attractive to retain, given their, you know, growing benefits to the to the core operations?

好的，謝謝。最後，你知道，我對準備好的評論中關於零售業務的評論很感興趣，你知道，每天為零售客戶提供服務。我想我應該稱它們為公司自營商店，你知道，以及夜間的車隊客戶，也許你可以擴展這一點。我記得，在新年展望計劃首次公佈時，您曾指出了許多改善公司自有商店運營和盈利能力的機會，並以此作為不出售這些商店的理由。您知道，包括最後一英里交付在內的車隊服務可能是最大的機遇，您能否介紹一下貴公司自有商店的盈利能力或其相對成功的情況，並且隨著您在這裡繼續取得進展，您認為這是否會讓零售店變得更加漂亮，使其作為處置候選人更具吸引力，因為它們的盈利能力更強？那麼，這或許意味著更大的潛在收益，或者，考慮到它們對核心業務不斷增長的利益，這是否使得保留它們更具吸引力？

So right now jumping on the profitability, we talked about a $20 million year over year lift in sales, which is almost all leverage. And so that's a lot of that's dropping to the bottom line. We don't disclose retail profitability and I think, you know, I'll, I'll turn it over to mark to just talk about our opportunities even to further scale and grow retail. Because I think that comes into the calculus when you're thinking about opportune times to sell, to sell, we have a, we have a ton of opportunity to grow in this footprint on our own mark.

因此現在討論盈利能力，我們談到了銷售額同比增長 2000 萬美元，這幾乎全是槓桿。因此很多內容都落到了底線。我們不會透露零售獲利能力，我想，我會把它交給馬克來談談我們進一步擴大和發展零售業的機會。因為我認為，當你考慮銷售的合適時機時，這一點就會被考慮進去，我們有很多機會在我們自己的品牌上成長。

Yeah. Sure. Yeah, Ryan, we have really been focused during this year on, on the retail opportunities coming in a little bit from, from my background in my former life side Ryan Waldron and myself together with with with Fred and John and the retail team and Alex have really been diving in on a week by week basis, making sure that we are leveraging those opportunities right when it comes to customer service. So let's break it into the two segments, right? The the the normalized kind of Goodyear auto service center and then the the leveraging for the fleet business, both are going very well. So, so really great that we have, we've got our, our store managers out there performing very strongly with their teams. We have changed how we go to market with them in terms of the KPIS that we're tracking in terms of the data and analytics that we're we're scraping and sharing with those teams. So they know where they stand in the market. We've increased our service on our base business, not only in, in just pushing tires, but really in improving our value add across the network, and, and really have those in a, in a great shape for that. Then you, you add on the, the locations that have already already doing double duty. Now, as I mentioned with a quote well known last mile fleet, to start and, you know, we're talking 6, 700 appointments a day as we look at that and continuing to grow that. And we see that as a, as a great area of growth for us, a profitable growth for us. At the same time, we see our existing retail business also in very much a favorable growth mode in terms of the, the value add proposition and and the bottom line earnings. So, absolutely, it's a, it's a key part of our, our long term strategic growth and, and we'll continue to reassess that as we said, right about where is the best home for that at the moment? That best home is absolutely with us. And and my plan is for us to, to get ourselves prepared and and get moving forward and do even more of what the team has been been successful at over these last these last eight months or so as as we've made the transitions there. So really proud of, really proud of our retail team.

是的。當然。是的，Ryan，我們今年一直專注於零售機會，從我以前在零售領域的工作經驗來看，Ryan Waldron 和我以及 Fred、John 和零售團隊和 Alex 一直都在每週深入研究，確保我們在客戶服務方面能夠充分利用這些機會。那麼讓我們把它分成兩個部分，對嗎？固特異汽車服務中心的常態化以及車隊業務的槓桿作用都進展順利。所以，我們真的很高興，我們的商店經理和他們的團隊表現非常出色。我們已經改變了與他們一起進入市場的方式，根據我們正在追蹤的 KPIS 以及我們正在抓取並與這些團隊共享的數據和分析。所以他們知道自己在市場中的地位。我們增加了基礎業務的服務，不僅僅是推銷輪胎，還真正提高了整個網路的附加價值，並且確實使這些業務處於良好的狀態。然後，你加入已經承擔雙重職責的位置。現在，正如我之前提到的，眾所周知的最後一英里車隊，一開始，你知道，我們每天有 6,700 個預約，我們正在考慮這個數字，並且這個數字還在繼續增長。我們認為這是我們的一個巨大的成長領域，為我們帶來獲利的成長。同時，我們看到現有的零售業務在增值主張和底線收益方面也處於非常有利的成長模式。所以，絕對是，這是我們長期策略成長的關鍵部分，我們將繼續重新評估這一點，正如我們所說的，目前哪裡是它最好的歸宿？那個最好的家絕對在我們身邊。我的計劃是讓我們做好準備，繼續前進，做更多團隊在過去八個月左右成功的事情，因為我們已經完成了轉變。我真的為我們的零售團隊感到自豪，真的感到自豪。

Great, very helpful.

非常好，非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Oprator Instructions) Emmanuel Rosner with Wolf Research.

（操作員指示） Wolf Research 的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Thank you very much. My first question is on the free cash flow. It was a decently large use. This quarter. Can you talk to us a little bit about, you know, what's going on? What the outlook is, not just in the near term, but just you know, into next year as well. I believe Christina, you mentioned positive free cash flow next year. Can you did I hear that right. And then what you know, what would be the levers and drivers to improve free cash flow and leverage from here?

非常感謝。我的第一個問題是關於自由現金流。這是一個相當大的用途。本季。可以跟我們稍微談談最近發生了什麼事嗎？前景如何？我相信克里斯蒂娜，你提到了明年的正自由現金流。你看，我聽得對嗎？那麼您知道，從現在起，哪些槓桿和驅動因素可以改善自由現金流和槓桿率？

Hi Emmanuel. So, I'll start on the, the quarter, you know, our third quarter free cash flow was a use of $340 million and that's, that's compared to a use of 41 million last year and really two major drivers of that change. The first is higher rationalization payments as part of good year forward. We we've obviously announced a lot of structural rationalizations as as well as an increased use of working capital. So I'd say rationalization payments and, and some of the Goodyear forward costs were about 100 million higher, working capital, 75 million higher. And the the rest is timing of tax payments and timing of interest expense payments and accruals also some other balance sheet accruals and payments, but no real significant changes here. Other than timing, I think we're confident about our expectations for very strong free cash flow here in the fourth quarter in line with our historical seasonality and our full year free cash flow guidance for this year is stable compared to what we shared with you on our Q2 call. I think looking ahead to 2025 you know, a couple of major drivers relative to this year on free cash flow first, what we expect to recover the working capital outflows in 2024 next year, we also are reducing our Capex below a billion dollars. So that's a swing of about $300 million on a year over year basis. And so I think we should expect really strong free cash flow next year. Right now, we've announced restructurings of $400 million which would subtract from all of that free cash flow. But I think, you know, our restructuring could go as high as 700 million. Some of that could be in that additional could be in 2025. Some of that could be in 2026. We'll continue to keep you posted there on our plans around structural cost but still feel very good about cash flow.

你好，Emmanuel。因此，我將從本季開始講起，您知道，我們第三季的自由現金流使用量為 3.4 億美元，而去年同期的自由現金流使用量為 4,100 萬美元，這實際上是推動這項變化的兩個主要因素。首先是更高的合理化支付，作為新年美好願景的一部分。我們顯然已經宣布了許多結構合理化措施以及增加營運資金的使用。所以我認為合理化支付和固特異的部分預付成本大約高出 1 億美元，營運資金高出 7,500 萬美元。其餘的是納稅時間和利息費用支付和應計時間，還有一些其他資產負債表應計和支付，但這裡沒有真正的重大變化。除了時間因素之外，我認為我們對第四季度非常強勁的自由現金流預期充滿信心，這符合我們的歷史季節性，而且與我們在第二季度電話會議上分享的相比，我們對今年全年自由現金流的預期是穩定的。我認為展望 2025 年，與今年相比，首先是自由現金流的幾個主要驅動因素，我們預計明年 2024 年營運資金流出將恢復，我們還將把資本支出削減至 10 億美元以下。因此與去年同期相比，變動幅度約為 3 億美元。因此我認為我們明年的自由現金流應該會非常強大。目前，我們已經宣布了 4 億美元的重組，這將減少所有的自由現金流。但我認為，我們的重組金額可能高達 7 億美元。其中一些可能會在 2025 年實現。其中有些可能要到 2026 年才能實現。我們將繼續向您通報有關結構成本的計劃，但對現金流量我們仍然感到非常滿意。

Okay. Just quick follow up on this restructuring span. Can you just remind us how much is sort of like le left to spend? After 2024 is done.

好的。只是對這次重組跨度進行快速跟進。你能提醒我們還剩下多少錢可以花嗎？2024 年後。

So right now, we've we've said that we'll spend about a billion dollars in restructuring over the course of the program. So that's inclusive of the guidance today for 2024 next year, we've announced about $400 million in cash out. You know, there could be some other structural cost announcements that could add to that next year or in 2026. And we'll just have to continue to keep you posted as to the timing of those outflows, but expect no more than a billion dollars under the total program between 2024 and 2026 maybe, early 2026.

所以現在，我們已經說過，我們將在該計劃的整個過程中花費大約 10 億美元進行重組。因此，這包括今天的 2024 年指引，我們宣布明年將支出約 4 億美元的現金。你知道，明年或 2026 年可能會有一些其他結構性成本公告增加。我們將繼續向您通報這些資金流出的時間，但預計 2024 年至 2026 年期間整個計劃下的資金流出不會超過 10 億美元，也許在 2026 年初。

Got it. Thank you. And then maybe a follow up on the on volume. So II, I think I understand some of what's going on in terms of drivers of volume weakness as well as the strategy you're, you're pursuing to go after some of the more profitable, the most profitable volume. At the same time, It, it, it's a bit hard from in our vantage point to understand at what point will volume no longer be as large a headwind to the point that it offsets, you know, some of the benefits from your, you know, strong cost reductions. I think in the past, you anticipated that by now, you would probably have reached this point where volume would not necessarily underperform, you know, the industry, but it still does and still guided to do so. You know, how should we think about that? When will you, when will you be done? You know, with your own actions, what part of it is driven by Goodyear versus industry dynamics? At, at what point can volume no longer be the part that basically offsets, you know, the good stuff you do on the cost side.

知道了。謝謝。然後可能會對音量進行跟進。所以 II，我認為我了解導致交易量疲軟的因素以及你們為追求更有利可圖、最有利可圖的交易量而採取的策略。同時，從我們的角度來看，很難理解何時銷售不再成為巨大的阻力，以至於抵消大幅降低成本帶來的一些好處。我認為，在過去，你會預料到到現在，你可能已經達到了這樣的一個點，即交易量不一定會低於行業水平，但事實是，它仍然低於行業水平，並且仍然會引導行業這樣做。你知道，我們應該怎麼看待這個問題？什麼時候，什麼時候才能完成？您知道，就您自己的行動而言，有多少是由固特異推動的，有多少是由產業動態推動的？在什麼時候，銷售不再是抵銷成本所做好事的根本因素？

Yeah, I think, and it, I think you put it exactly right. Emmanuel in terms of the industry, the industry piece versus the, the Goodyear and the, and the Goodyear brands piece. I I'll give you a great example right on weather ready too, right. As we mentioned, we've got got, you know, I think it was 50 60% more skew coverage coming into this, the refreshing and the new, you know, award winners coming into the marketplace today. So at this moment, we've got 40 of those skus in the marketplace for sale. By the end of the year, there'll be 58. By then, by the time we get into the end of the first quarter next year, we'll be up to 78. So from 40 to 78 on that prior to right, we would have been sitting roughly in that 50 kind of range. So we're covering more of the marketplace and what we're doing very much from an analytical perspective from from our folks in data analytics for the marketing team and from our, our sales, our consumer sales teams that we used to call category, right? That are sales enablement, looking at the car park, looking at the 1st and 2nd replacement cycles and where we have holes in those fitments. So long story short to it is weather ready. Two is a great example of bringing that in and having the right places. The 90 plus skews that are on the water from AA on the high end fitments are a key part of that strategy that come into the marketplace between December and February of next year. It will be flowing all the way through next year and into early 26 to answer your question.

是的，我認為，而且我認為你說得非常正確。就行業而言，Emmanuel 是行業部分，而 Goodyear 是固特異部分，Goodyear 品牌部分則相反。我也會給你一個很好的例子，關於天氣也準備好了，對吧。正如我們所提到的，我認為我們的報道傾斜度增加了 50% 到 60%，今天有令人耳目一新的獲獎作品進入市場。目前，我們在市場上有 40 個 SKU 可供銷售。到今年年底，將會有58個。到那時，到明年第一季末，我們將達到 78 個。因此，從 40 到 78 之前，我們大概處於 50 的範圍內。因此，我們涵蓋了更多的市場，我們所做的工作主要是從分析的角度，從行銷團隊的數據分析人員，以及我們的銷售、我們過去稱之為類別的消費者銷售團隊的角度，對嗎？這些都是銷售支持，請查看停車場，查看第一次和第二次更換週期以及這些配件中的漏洞。長話短說，天氣已經準備好了。二是將其引入並放在正確位置的一個很好的例子。AA 在水上提供的 90 多種高端配件是該策略的關鍵部分，這些配件將於 12 月至明年 2 月期間進入市場。它將持續到明年並持續到 26 年初，回答您的問題。

And, and so timing was, I appreciate the call. Timing was you think that about a year and a half.

而且，時機也正好，我很感謝你的來電。您認為時間大約是一年半。

Process when it comes to the actions that we're taking from the time we release development and the refresh of the vitality, we call it on existing Powerline Ks. So it's the refreshing of SKs, it's new skews to the market and still though being very cognizant of our platforming and you know, the both the carcass and the green tires to not clog up the plants. So, it's, we're doing that in harmony with the, with each other. So we don't cause a backwards move on our plant side. But but it's basically, it's about a year and a half type of process. I think forced to get exactly where I would like force to be.

當我們發布開發和更新活力時，我們會採取一些行動，我們稱之為現有的 Powerline Ks。所以這是 SK 的更新，這是對市場的新傾斜，同時我們仍然非常清楚我們的平台，你知道，胎體和綠色輪胎都不會堵塞工廠。所以，我們是彼此和諧地做這件事的。這樣就不會造成工廠方面的倒退。但基本上，這是一個大約一年半的過程。我認為強迫自己達到我想要的程度。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you. We'll take our last question from Ross McDonald with Morgan Stanley.

謝謝。我們的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅斯麥克唐納。

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. It's Ross Morgan Stanley. A quick one on sku rationalization. Could you maybe help steer us in terms of the volume you're currently doing in 18 inch and above in the US and how much open road you see for growth. There just be helpful. I think to understand where we are starting from and where you want to be in a couple of years' time.

是的。感謝您回答我的問題。我是羅斯摩根士丹利。關於SKU合理化的簡要說明。您能否幫我們介紹一下您目前在美國 18 吋及以上尺寸產品的產量，以及您認為還有多少成長空間。那裡只是有幫助的。我認為要了解我們的起點以及幾年後想要達到的目標。

Sure. Hi Ross. So I have the stats for North America and Goodyear branded products.

當然。你好，羅斯。所以我有北美和固特異品牌產品的統計數據。

57% greater than 18 inch, but across the portfolio which would include Cooper and all of our family of brands. We're at about 46% greater than 18 inch. So a lot of runway grow here in North America going forward. That's in a pretty big contrast. If I go to the other end, like in China, for example, we're, we're already 80% greater than 18 inch and that's just given the car park there more heavily skewed. Do we?

比 18 英寸高出 57%，但涵蓋了包括 Cooper 和我們所有品牌系列的產品組合。我們比 18 英吋大約大 46%。因此，未來北美的跑道將會持續擴大。這是一個相當大的反差。如果我去另一端，例如在中國，我們已經超過 18 英寸 80%，而這導致那裡的停車場傾斜更加嚴重。我們會嗎？

That's helpful. Thank you. And then final question just on the disposals again, I appreciate you are slightly restricted in what you can say, but specifically on dunlop, you had previously guided us towards that business which is predominantly Europe focused, I believe doing annual sales of around $700 million. That still be the best estimate for 2025. Given the budget share gains that we're seeing in Europe and related. You'd mentioned that business was doing something like a mid single digit margin, I guess. How should we think about the dunlop margin profile next year? Given the budget dynamics that you laid out earlier? Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。然後最後一個問題是關於處置的，我知道你能說的內容有些限制，但具體到鄧祿普，你之前曾引導我們走向主要集中在歐洲的業務，我相信年銷售額約為 7 億美元。這仍然是 2025 年的最佳估計。鑑於我們在歐洲和相關地區看到的預算份額增長。我猜您有提到過，業務利潤率大概是個位數的中等水準。我們該如何看待明年鄧祿普的利潤狀況？考慮到您之前列出的預算動態？謝謝。

So, I would say, yeah, you're right. Dunlop for us is about 5 million units mostly concentrated in IIA you know, over the past year, you know, we've repositioned Dunlop into the tier two space in the market. So we have been growing share their products performing very well. I I would expect that revenue to be up somewhat just given the unit volume increases we've seen since we last discussed the brand at the end of of last year. And I think, you know, the margins are still healthy, still very healthy relative to the rest of the portfolio. And I'm, I'm talking on a gross margin basis overall and, and you know, that is a clear area of focus for us growing, continuing to grow the strategic positioning of our brand families. And you know, continuing to work towards this process where, you know, we're undergoing the strategic review for divestiture as well.

所以我想說，是的，你是對的。對我們來說，鄧祿普大約有 500 萬台，主要集中在 IIA，在過去的一年裡，我們已將鄧祿普重新定位到市場上的二級空間。因此，我們一直在不斷增長其產品銷量，其產品表現非常出色。我預計，鑑於自去年年底我們上次討論該品牌以來單位銷量的增長，收入將有所增加。而且我認為，利潤率仍然健康，相對於投資組合中的其他部分來說仍然非常健康。我談論的是整體毛利率，你知道，這是我們持續發展、持續提升我們品牌系列策略定位的明確重點領域。你知道，我們將繼續致力於這一進程，你知道，我們也在進行資產剝離的策略審查。

Thanks very much, maybe a very, very quick follow up just on the mix question would you consider in your EBIT bridge splitting out what is net price versus what is mix. I know some of your tier one competitors do that would just be helpful. Maybe to showcase what is structural mix benefits to help us see the evidence of that mix coming through. Thank you.

非常感謝，也許可以非常非常快速地跟進混合問題，您會考慮在 EBIT 橋中分離出淨價與混合價嗎？我知道你們的一些一級競爭對手會這麼做，這會很有幫助。也許是為了展示結構混合的好處，以幫助我們看到這種混合的證據。謝謝。

Historically, when there's been a a significant driver will make some qualitative comments, I think because of our market share in the US and some of the ongoing scrutiny around pricing conversations broadly, we tend to stay away from you know, really a pricing commentary.

從歷史上看，當出現重大驅動因素時，就會做出一些定性評論，我認為，由於我們在美國的市場份額，以及圍繞定價討論的一些持續審查，我們傾向於遠離真正的定價評論。

Right. Understood. Thank you very much.

正確的。明白了。非常感謝。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you. And it appears that we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝。目前看來我們沒有其他問題了。現在我將節目交還給主持人，以便他們發表任何補充言論或結束語。

No, that is it guys. Thank you guys for calling especially. I know some of you guys are out at the fema show. It's quite early for you, but we want to thank everybody for joining and, and thanks for the, the great questions today. Look forward to talking to you in quarter four.

不，就是這樣，夥計們。特別感謝你們的來電。我知道你們中的一些人去參加了聯邦緊急事務管理局的展覽。現在對您來說還為時過早，但我們還是要感謝大家的參與，也感謝大家今天提出的精彩問題。期待在第四季度與您交談。

That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。