Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Nikki, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After some opening remarks, there will be a question and answer session.(Operator Instructions).

早安.我叫 Nikki，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加固特異 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。所有線路均已靜音以防止任何背景噪音。在一些開場白之後，將有一個問答環節。

Today on the call, we have Mark Stewart, Goodyear's Chief Executive Officer; and Christina Zamarro, Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的有固特異執行長馬克‧史都華 (Mark Stewart)；以及財務長 Christina Zamarro。

During this call, Goodyear will refer to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. For more information on the most significant factors that could affect future results, please refer to the important disclosures section of Goodyear's fourth quarter 2023 investor letter and our filings with the SEC, which can be found on the website at investor. goodyear.com.

在本次電話會議中，固特異將參考前瞻性聲明和非公認會計準則財務指標。前瞻性陳述涉及風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的最重要因素的更多信息，請參閱固特異 2023 年第四季度投資者信函的重要披露部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，可在投資者網站上找到。 goodyear.com。

Well, a replay of this call will also be available. A reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that may be discussed on today's call to the comparable GAAP measures is also included in the investor letter.

嗯，本次通話的重播也將提供。投資者信中也包含了今天電話會議上可能討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

I will now turn the call over to Mark Stewart, CEO.

現在我將電話轉給執行長馬克·史都華 (Mark Stewart)。

Thank you, Nikki, good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining Christina and I this morning for what is my first conference call as a Goodyear CEO. and just now over two weeks in my new role, I cannot be more excited to join this iconic company. As you guys can imagine, I am working diligently and quickly to understanding deep understanding of our business.

謝謝你，尼基，大家早上好，感謝你們今天早上和克里斯蒂娜以及我一起參加我作為固特異首席執行官的第一次電話會議。現在，我已經在新職位上工作兩週多了，我非常高興能夠加入這家標誌性的公司。正如你們可以想像的，我正在勤奮、快速地工作以深入了解我們的業務。

I'm meeting with our people, visiting our factories, getting to know our customers, our products, our cost structures and doing that through operational deep dives. I'm looking forward to engaging with the investment community as well over the course of the next several months to gain your perspective as well. As many of you have read my most recent role as Stellantis were around the company's North America operations and a key leader on the global executive team.

我會見我們的員工，參觀我們的工廠，了解我們的客戶、我們的產品、我們的成本結構，並透過深入的營運來做到這一點。我期待在接下來的幾個月與投資界接觸，以了解你們的觀點。正如你們許多人所讀到的，我在 Stellantis 任職期間最近的職責是負責公司的北美業務，並且是全球執行團隊的關鍵領導者。

And I will bring a perspective from an automotive OEM automotive supplier background and the understanding of needing to lead through industry cyclicality and a clear focus on manufacturing, purchasing, engineering and logistics in order for us to achieve our financials. What this means is, that in addition to spending time, meeting our customers, understanding our products and product placement, you can expect me to focus heavily on Goodyear's manufacturing operations and distribution.

我將從汽車原始設備製造商 (OEM) 汽車供應商的角度來闡述我的觀點，以及需要引領行業週期性的理解，並明確關注製造、採購、工程和物流，以便我們實現財務目標。這意味著，除了花時間與客戶會面、了解我們的產品和產品定位之外，我還會專注於固特異的製造營運和分銷。

Understanding that on every level and working with the team to enhance capability and our cost effectiveness. As well, our focus on clean sheeting and should-cost activities, our SKU or product complexity, as well as our go-to-market strategies.

在各個層面理解這一點，並與團隊合作以提高能力和成本效益。此外，我們專注於清潔紙張和應有成本活動、我們的 SKU 或產品複雜性以及我們的市場進入策略。

Like all other aspects of our business that focus will be centered purely around our Goodyear forward in the coming months. I'm engaged in deep dives on each element of the program, the associated work stream, our amazing teams and committed to delivering the outcomes of the forward plan. I've been a part of leading transformational efforts and driving results in my past roles and bringing them to the bottom line through clear KPI's, the definition, the tracking and speed of execution. for Goodyear for us, it's about maximizing our strength in our market position in North America is improving our cost structure, as well as derisking our balance sheet.

就像我們業務的所有其他方面一樣，未來幾個月的重點將完全集中在固特異的發展上。我深入研究了該計劃的每個要素、相關的工作流程、我們出色的團隊，並致力於實現未來計劃的成果。在過去的職位中，我一直致力於領導轉型工作、推動成果，並透過明確的 KPI、定義、追蹤和執行速度將其帶到底線。對於固特異來說，我們要做的是最大限度地發揮我們在北美市場的地位，改善我們的成本結構，並降低我們的資產負債表風險。

Ultimately, I am confident Goodyear forward will drive our company's next stage of profitable growth and success is clear, and I fully support the plan. With that by now, you read our investor letter from yesterday evening, Christina and I like to get right to your questions, so with that, Nikki, let's open the line.

最終，我相信固特異將推動我們公司下一階段的獲利成長，成功是顯而易見的，我全力支持該計劃。現在，您已經閱讀了我們昨天晚上的投資者信，克里斯蒂娜和我喜歡直接回答您的問題，所以，尼基，讓我們開始吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Rod Lache, Wolfe Research.

羅德·拉赫（Rod Lache），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning, everybody. Good to talk to you again, Mark. I understand, Mark, that you're just two weeks into working at Goodyear, but I wanted to give you a little bit more of an opportunity to talk about what you see as most important to create a durable industrial turnaround? And what do you think the time line will be for you to kind of put your stamp on the plan?

大家早安。很高興再次與您交談，馬克。馬克，我了解你在固特異工作才兩週，但我想給你更多一點機會來談談你認為實現持久的工業轉型最重要的是什麼？您認為自己在什麼時候才能完成這個計劃？

Yes, thanks. Thanks, Rod. I think what's clear is going back again to the very well thought out Goodyear forward plan, which was rolled out November 15th, right? And that is my focus, it's about streamlining the portfolio, it's force get to sustainable operational margins of 10%, getting our net leverage to 2x, 2.5x by end of '25. And having that sustainable free cash flow, that's going to increase our overall financial flexibility.

是的，謝謝。謝謝，羅德。我認為，很明顯的是，我們要回到 11 月 15 日推出的經過深思熟慮的固特異前進計劃，對嗎？這就是我的重點，即精簡投資組合，迫使實現 10% 的可持續營運利潤率，到 25 年底將我們的淨槓桿率提高到 2 倍、2.5 倍。擁有可持續的自由現金流將提高我們的整體財務靈活性。

So, specifically, you know, it won't be two weeks in a day here, I am right in the middle of this onboarding process. And again, I'm spending the majority of my time and plan to do so in the near term, listening to our team here at Goodyear, both at headquarters, in the plants, our retailers, our customers, meaning in retail, OE and distribution.

所以，具體來說，你知道，這不會是一天兩個星期的時間，而我正處於這個入職流程的中間。再次強調，我花了大部分時間，並計劃在短期內這樣做，傾聽固特異總部、工廠、零售商和客戶（包括零售、原始設備製造商和分銷商）團隊的意見。

And it really is looking forward to meeting you guys as well, right in a different light from the vast right? But I am deep diving into the operations going through the functions, the financials to really thoroughly understand the business right now. And so I'm asking lots of questions, taking lots of notes, continuously reviewing that, especially in this first 30, 60, 90 days to challenge what I think in coming in to gain the understanding from our team also to get clarification of things that maybe we can conclude into some quick win categories and areas that the learnings about half from the past as well.

而且也真的很期待和大家見面，在廣闊的不同光線下，對吧？但我正在深入研究營運、職能和財務狀況，以便真正徹底地了解當前的業務。因此，我問了很多問題，做了大量的筆記，不斷地進行回顧，特別是在最初的 30、60、90 天裡，我對我的想法進行了質疑，以獲得我們團隊的理解，也得到了一些澄清，也許我們可以總結出一些快速取勝的類別和領域，其中大約一半的經驗也來自過去。

So, again, it really is about trying to keep that fresh eye look with a hard drive to execution. And it is about speed of execution, it's about us delivering that Good year forward plan. A couple of observations that I had in the first couple of weeks again, there's incredible momentum in the Goodyear forward plan, meeting with the teams, just the as you look to the plans well thought out, step-by-step, timing, ownership, execution. And so that is what I'm here to do is to help Christina and the rest of the team in terms of helping to lead and guide those initiatives across the finish line run.

因此，再說一次，這確實是為了努力保持新鮮的視角和努力執行。這關乎執行速度，關乎我們實現美好的一年未來計畫。在最初幾周里，我有幾點觀察，那就是，固特異的未來計劃有著令人難以置信的勢頭，與團隊會面，正如你所看到的，這些計劃都經過深思熟慮，循序漸進，有時間安排、所有權、執行力。所以，我來這裡要做的就是幫助克里斯蒂娜和團隊的其他成員帶領和指導這些計劃順利完成。

Great, thanks for that. And, just on the business, maybe Christina, you can help us with this cost performance is obviously starting to look a lot better now. And I presume that that's not really with much benefit from the Goodyear forward plan yet.

太好了，謝謝。就業務而言，也許克里斯蒂娜可以幫助我們提高成本效益，現在顯然成本表現開始好多了。我推測固特異未來計畫其實還沒有為這帶來太多好處。

So, the question just looking at the numbers just continues to be market share. And I know there's factors that affected in every region, but see even in isolation, just Goodyear's year-over-year volume performance wasn't great. So, I'm hoping you can maybe just talk to us a little bit about you think that there is market stability for Goodyear or is that kind of a work in progress? In other words, do you think that even beyond Goodyear forward more realignment is going to be needed to the portfolio?

因此，僅從數字來看，問題仍然只是市場份額。我知道每個地區都有影響的因素，但即使孤立地看，固特異的同比銷量表現也不理想。所以，我希望您可以跟我們簡單聊聊，您認為固特異的市場穩定性如何，還是這項工作還在進行中？換句話說，您是否認為除了固特異之外，投資組合還需要進行更多調整？

Yes, sure, Rod. I'll take it by region, and I'll start with the US. And our fourth quarter replacement market share in the US in 2022 was, I have to characterize it right, is just abnormally high and it approached 28%. And that was all driven by your reference to the volatility in imports that we saw over the course of 2022, even at the tail end of 2021.

是的，當然，羅德。我將按照地區進行討論，首先從美國開始。我必須正確描述一下，2022 年我們在美國第四季的替代市場佔有率異常高，接近 28%。這一切都是由於您提到的我們在 2022 年甚至 2021 年底看到的進口波動。

When I look at our consumer replacement share in the US in the fourth quarter of 2023, I'd say, it's in line with year-to-date results and reflects a more normalized level of sell-in share. And even with the significant change on a year-over-year basis, looking at the volume decline, where I'd also point out to you is that our sell out share. So, what's getting bolted onto vehicles at retail was in line with the industry and so that gets to your question around a level of stabilization.

當我查看 2023 年第四季度在美國消費者更換份額時，我會說，它與年初至今的業績一致，並反映了更正常化的銷售份額水平。儘管與去年同期相比發生了顯著變化，但從銷量下降來看，我還要指出的是，我們的銷售份額有所下降。因此，零售時安裝在車輛上的零件與行業情況一致，這就回答了您關於穩定程度的問題。

So, we would expect a much more normalized market share going forward in the US, certainly with margins in excess of 10%. We are in a good market position in terms of share, that doesn't mean that we won't make changes to the portfolio around the periphery. We said that we will do that as part of Goodyear forward through SKU consolidation, through our customer programs as we look to continue to grow our margins.

因此，我們預計未來美國的市場份額將更加正常化，利潤率肯定會超過 10%。就份額而言，我們處於良好的市場地位，但這並不意味著我們不會對外圍的投資組合做出改變。我們表示，我們將透過 SKU 整合和客戶計劃，作為固特異未來發展的一部分，繼續提高我們的利潤率。

But I don't think there's anything that's significant there, Rod. I do feel that we've stabilized in the US compared to last year. Having said all that, we are the forward outlook for our mature markets, say, US and Europe, slow growth for 2024, something like up 1% to 2% feels tougher in the first half than in the second half and we know we also have recent declines in raw materials, so that there's that to put into the calculus as well.

但我不認為那裡有什麼重要的事情，羅德。我確實感覺與去年相比，美國的情況已經穩定下來。話雖如此，我們對成熟市場（例如美國和歐洲）的前瞻性展望是，2024 年的增長將較為緩慢，上半年增長 1% 到 2% 的感覺比下半年更難，而且我們知道最近原材料價格也有所下跌，所以這一點也要考慮進去。

Now when we think about EMEA, the past headwind has been our sales volume performance really going back to 2019. We've been hurt by our position in OE, and that's where the industry is certainly falling pretty dramatically off its peak. It's also hurt in replacement, where we do tend to be more profitable as you know. I think going forward, we see little downside risk until we are only forecast globally for 2024, something that feels a lot more forward or a lot more level.

現在，當我們考慮歐洲、中東和非洲地區時，過去的阻力一直是我們的銷售量表現，可以追溯到 2019 年。我們在 OE 領域的地位對我們造成了傷害，這也是整個產業從巔峰狀態大幅下滑的原因。如你所知，在替換方面我們確實傾向於獲得更高的利潤，但這也受到了損害。我認為，展望未來，我們幾乎看不到下行風險，直到我們對 2024 年的全球預測，感覺更加前瞻性或更平穩。

But when I think about the consumer replacement market share in Europe, what I'd say is, you've lost a lot of market share since 2019 to imported budget brands. And they have grown as a part of the industry about 15 million units since 2019. And that's at the same time, the industry shrunk 7 million units. And so we've lost our fair share of that. And that's why we're directing the restructuring dollars as part of Goodyear forward to the factories in EMEA, and that was all announced in the fourth quarter.

但當我想到歐洲的消費者替代市場份額時，我想說的是，自 2019 年以來，你們已經失去了許多市場份額給進口的廉價品牌。自 2019 年以來，它們作為該行業的一部分已增長約 1500 萬台。與此同時，汽車業銷量萎縮了 700 萬輛。因此，我們失去了應有的份額。這就是為什麼我們將固特異的重組資金用於歐洲、中東和非洲地區的工廠，這一切都是在第四季度宣布的。

So, just Christina, with that, once the restructuring is done in Europe, you would expect that business to be more defendable or more stable at that level?

那麼，克里斯蒂娜，一旦歐洲完成重組，您是否認為該業務在那個層面上會更具防禦性或更穩定？

Yes, I mean, I would say, we will, we're addressing the cost competitiveness with the couple of factories out. I think there will be more work for us to do beyond 2025. I think we can get Europe to a high single digit and so our margin performance, I don't think we'll get there by the end of 2025, but we're beginning the work or laying the groundwork we've announced the two factory closures.

是的，我的意思是，我們將解決與幾家工廠相關的成本競爭力問題。我認為 2025 年以後我們還有更多的工作要做。我認為我們可以讓歐洲的利潤率達到較高的個位數，我不認為我們會在 2025 年底之前達到這個目標，但我們正在開始工作或奠定基礎，我們已經宣布關閉兩家工廠。

We've also announced a big SAG restructuring worth $100 million, and EMEA will also get their fair share of the purchasing and some of the corporate initiatives that we're running as part of a Goodyear forward. So, we do have a good path to earnings growth in the future in Europe. But I think it's going to take a little bit longer than this two year plan period that we're talking about as part of Goodyear forward.

我們還宣布了一項價值 1 億美元的大型 SAG 重組，EMEA 也將獲得我們作為固特異前進的一部分而開展的採購和一些公司計劃的公平份額。因此，我們未來在歐洲確實擁有良好的獲利成長之路。但我認為這將比我們作為固特異前進的一部分所討論的兩年計劃期更長一些。

Got you, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的詹姆斯·皮卡里洛（James Picariello）。

Hi, good morning, everyone, and welcome aboard, Mark. Just on the restructuring actions, the Goodyear forward savings plan. So, you're calling for $350 million for the full year, $50 million in the first quarter. Just curious how we should be thinking about the remainder of the year in terms of the cadence. And then more broadly, as we think about divestitures and the need for the execution there to fund the heavy lift on the Goodyear forward plan in 2025 for us to achieve that $1 billion plus exit rate. Just, does all that need to take place this year for the timing needs to be maintained here in terms of the time line. Thanks

大家早安，歡迎加入，馬克。僅就重組行動而言，固特異的前瞻性節約計畫。所以，你要求全年收入 3.5 億美元，第一季收入 5,000 萬美元。只是好奇我們應該如何以節奏來考慮今年剩下的時間。更廣泛地說，當我們考慮資產剝離以及在那裡執行的必要性時，我們將為 2025 年固特異遠景計劃提供大量資金，以便我們實現 10 億美元以上的退出率。只是，今年需要發生的所有事情是否都需要在時間線方面保持時機。謝謝

Hi, James. So, on the Goodyear forward program, $350 million on a full year basis, $50 million in the first quarter. You can think about that is, a big step-up in Q2 and then a little bit of a leveling on the rest of the year, but then what I would say is still ramping onto the fourth quarter as you can imagine, we're building into a run rate through the end of 2025 with all of these programs. When I look at the asset sales, I would say that the processes related to the sales of the three respective assets that we talked about on November 15th is underway and progressing as planned.

你好，詹姆斯。因此，根據固特異的前瞻性計劃，全年支出為 3.5 億美元，第一季支出為 5,000 萬美元。你可以想像一下，第二季度的大幅增長，然後在今年剩餘時間內略有放緩，但我想說的是，第四季度仍將保持增長，正如你可以想像的那樣，我們正在通過所有這些計劃，在 2025 年底之前實現運行率。當我回顧資產出售時，我想說，我們在 11 月 15 日談到的三項各自資產的出售相關流程正在進行中，並且正在按計劃進行。

So, we'll be back to you when we have significant developments. I'll note that the outlook items within the investor letter don't contemplate an asset sale. So, we'll have to come back to you and adjust our box once we close on any sale. But I would say for the 2024 plan, no requirement for additional funding this year from an asset sale in order to achieve our plan.

因此，當我們有重大進展時，我們會及時通知您。我要指出的是，投資者信中的展望項目並未考慮資產出售。因此，一旦我們完成任何銷售，我們就必須回到您身邊並調整我們的盒子。但我想說，對於 2024 年計劃，今年不需要透過資產出售來獲得額外資金來實現我們的計劃。

And maybe this is a question we could answer off-line, but if just for context, if no divestiture takes place this year, right? just for context, what would be the additional restructuring Goodyear forward savings that would be in store for next year?(inaudible) on a year-over-year.

也許我們可以在線下回答這個問題，但如果只是為了了解背景，如果今年沒有發生任何資產剝離，對嗎？僅供參考，明年固特異重組將額外節省多少資金？與去年同期相比。

Yes, so, when we laid out the plan in November, James, we had said $350 million in year one and $750 million in year two.

是的，詹姆斯，當我們在 11 月制定計劃時，我們說第一年要花費 3.5 億美元，第二年要花費 7.5 億美元。

Right, but what about under the hypothetical that the divestitures don't take place this year again, purely hypothetical. Just what would be the incremental push to next year without that additional funding source for the additional? Does that make sense?

是的，但是假設今年不再進行資產剝離，情況會如何？那麼，如果沒有額外的資金來源，明年的增量推動力會是什麼呢？這樣有道理嗎？

So, as of today, we've announced a restructuring of about $750 million as compared to that guidance of $1.1 that was in our November announcement. So, we said $300 million of that sits in 2024, $350 sits in 2025 and that leaves the remaining stuff in 2026.

因此，截至今天，我們已經宣布了約 7.5 億美元的重組，而我們 11 月公告中的指導金額為 11 億美元。因此，我們說其中 3 億美元將在 2024 年到賬，3.5 億美元將在 2025 年到賬，剩餘的將在 2026 年到賬。

Got it, much appreciated. And then if I could just ask one more, just on the full year, kind of a follow-up to Rod's question. On just on a full year basis, would you be surprised if Goodyear's unit volumes were down for the full year or you've got the minus 2% for the first quarter. Just wondering, if we could kind of established that parameters in terms of expectations flatter, up or down for the full year in terms of units? Thanks.

明白了，非常感謝。然後，如果我可以再問一個關於全年的問題，這有點像是對羅德問題的後續回答。僅從全年來看，如果固特異的全年銷量下降或第一季銷量下降 2%，您會感到驚訝嗎？只是想知道，我們是否可以確定預期參數在單位方面全年是平緩、上升還是下降？謝謝。

Yes, I mean, maybe, I'll take the opportunity James to talk through a year-over-year as our [view] and that will get you at least sort of how I'm thinking about volume, but I'll go through all the drivers of once that make sense. On a year-over-year basis, if you start with our 2023, as a way of $968 million, Goodyear forward obviously Asset $350 million against base inflation of $215 million other costs.

是的，我的意思是，也許我會藉此機會讓詹姆斯談談我們的同比觀點，這至少會讓你了解我對銷量的看法，但我會一次過分析所有有意義的驅動因素。與去年同期相比，如果從 2023 年開始，作為 9.68 億美元的預期，固特異遠期資產顯然為 3.5 億美元，而基準通膨率為 2.15 億美元，其他成本則為 2.15 億美元。

So, these are costs in transportation and energy on a full year basis should be about flat. I do see right now a tailwind of $75 million in the first half is driven by transportation rates, but will flip to headwinds in the back half of the year driven by increased insurance premiums, as well as some transitional manufacturing inefficiencies related to our announced footprint actions in EMEA.

因此，全年的運輸和能源成本應該大致持平。我確實看到，目前上半年 7500 萬美元的順風是由運輸費率推動的，但下半年將轉為逆風，原因是保險費上漲，以及與我們宣布的 EMEA 足跡行動相關的一些過渡性製造效率低下。

Then separately with (inaudible)now at full production, we should get a $50 million benefit in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis. Then raw materials, we've said our $375 million in the first half, first quarter price mix down $130 million, and then we'll lap that about $60 million drag that we've been carrying with us as part of the commercial truck decline since the second quarter of last year. We'll lap that in Q2. So, our price mix in Q2 should be better than Q1.

然後單獨考慮（聽不清楚）現在全面投入生產，我們應該在第二季度獲得同比 5000 萬美元的收益。然後是原材料，我們說上半年我們的原材料成本為 3.75 億美元，第一季的價格組合下降了 1.3 億美元，然後我們將彌補自去年第二季度以來由於商用卡車銷量下滑而給我們帶來的約 6000 萬美元的拖累。我們將在 Q2 中解決這個問題。因此，我們第二季的價格組合應該比第一季更好。

We're also looking to build a couple of million units of inventory in Americas at levels are lower than what we need for optimal service levels as a result of the Tornado and are managing the business for cash last year. That should benefit second half and absorbed by about $40 million. I know we've said working capital will be neither a source or use for 2024. So, we do have some Goodyear forward work streams that will help us offset that, particularly around procurement.

我們還希望在美洲建立數百萬單位的庫存，其庫存水平低於我們為應對龍捲風而實現最佳服務水平所需的水平，並且去年我們正在以現金管理業務。這將有利於下半年，並吸收約 4,000 萬美元。我知道我們已經說過，營運資金既不是 2024 年的來源，也不會是用途。因此，我們確實有一些固特異前瞻性工作流程可以幫助我們抵消這一影響，特別是在採購方面。

When it comes down to and it was your question, James, what it comes down to is what you want to assume on volume price and mix for the rest of the year. I think, if you look at Asia Pacific, we have been seeing steady growth of mid single to high single digit in our consumer replacement business.

詹姆斯，歸根結底，這就是你的問題，歸根結底，你想對今年剩餘時間的成交量、價格和產品組合做出什麼假設。我認為，如果放眼亞太地區，我們的消費者替代業務一直保持著中個位數至高個位數的穩定成長。

If you wanted to model that Q2 through Q4, I think that would give you another $35 million or so on volume and unabsorbed. And then you get to the mature markets, where you have to balance this lower volume growth environment call it up 1% or so against the declining raw material environment and what you think that means for our price mix.

如果您想對第二季至第四季進行建模，我認為這將為您帶來另外 3500 萬美元左右的交易量和未吸收金額。然後你進入成熟市場，你必須在較低的銷售成長環境（大約 1%）和不斷下滑的原材料環境之間取得平衡，以及你認為這對我們的價格組合意味著什麼。

Super helpful, thank you.

非常有幫助，謝謝。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Emanuel Rosner, Deutsche Bank

謝謝。（操作員指示）Emanuel Rosner，德意志銀行

Congratulations Mark. Good morning. So, Christiana, I appreciate all the good color around the walk. I frankly didn't have a chance to put it all into my little calculator, it sort of backing in real time. So, just trying to understand medium in terms of bottom line versus your view in November?

恭喜馬克。早安.所以，克里斯蒂安娜，我很欣賞步行周圍的所有美麗色彩。坦白說，我沒有機會把所有資料放進我的小計算器裡，它只是即時備份。那麼，您只是想從底線的角度來理解中等水平，而不是您在 11 月的觀點嗎？

I think when you presented the plan to all of us, I think your high-level view at that point was look we are exiting 2023 with a fourth quarter margin of 7%, which you know, clearly over-delivered on. So, that's call it like that at the time you said $1.4 billion sort of like annualized SOI and then on top of that, we can have net cost savings of about $100 million.

我認為，當您向我們所有人介紹該計劃時，您當時的高層觀點是，到 2023 年，我們將以 7% 的第四季度利潤率結束這一計劃，這顯然是超額完成了。所以，就像您所說的那樣，14 億美元相當於年度 SOI，在此基礎上，我們還可以節省約 1 億美元的淨成本。

So, like the gross savings minus the inflation. And so you're sort of suggesting that like [one five, zero] like some think that is potentially a reasonable target. What does this year look like now that you have all the other puts and takes inflation versus what you were describing a few months back?

所以，就像總儲蓄減去通貨膨脹。所以你的意思是，像 [15，0] 這樣的數字，有些人認為這可能是個合理的目標。考慮到所有其他的看跌和看漲通膨因素，與幾個月前描述的情況相比，今年的情況如何？

Sure, Emmanuel. So, tracking back to our November 15th announcement, you're right, we said that the run rate of the business exiting the back half of the year felt like about $1.4. If I look at it today and adjusting for first quarter seasonality, we do have a big step down in Q1, always because, we generally sell about 4 million units less in Q1 than we do in Q4. We also drag in some inefficiencies from the holiday shutdowns into Q1. But what I would say, on top of all of that we do have to absorb about $60 million in (inaudible) mines that aren't in the run rate.

當然，伊曼紐爾。因此，回顧我們 11 月 15 日的公告，您說得對，我們說下半年業務的運行率約為 1.4 美元。如果我今天來看，並根據第一季的季節性進行調整，我們在第一季確實出現了大幅下滑，這是因為我們第一季的銷量通常比第四季少 400 萬台左右。我們也將假期停工造成的一些效率低下問題帶入了第一季。但我想說的是，除此之外，我們還必須吸收約 6,000 萬美元的未達產礦場的產能。

So, on a run rate basis, I would start knowing knowing where we closed at the end of the fourth quarter, I would start a run rate at [1350]. And then we know that we have the positive of Goodyear forward of [350]. We have a negative inflation of [135]. And then outside of inflation, I articulated on the year-over-year walk to $75 million headwind in the second half, driven by higher insurance premiums and then some of these manufacturing inefficiencies related to our recently announced factory shutdowns in EMEA.

因此，在運行率的基礎上，我會開始知道我們在第四季末的收盤價是多少，我會開始運行率[1350]。然後我們知道我們有積極的固特異向前[350]。我們的通膨率為負[135]。除了通貨膨脹之外，我還談到了下半年同比下降 7500 萬美元的情況，這主要是由於保險費上漲，以及我們最近宣布的 EMEA 工廠關閉導致的一些製造效率低下。

So, that's new news. And then against all of that again, that $60 million in (inaudible) that we're going to absorb that's weighted to the first half is even more weighted to Q1. And then that leaves your assumptions on how you want to build volume on top of that, Emmanuel. So, hopefully that gives you some clarity around the run rate.

這是新消息。然後，與所有這些相比，我們將要吸收的 6000 萬美元（聽不清楚）的金額，這筆錢加權到上半年，甚至加權到第一季。然後這就剩下你對如何在其基礎上建立音量的假設了，Emmanuel。因此，希望這能讓您清楚了解運行率。

Sorry, just to clarify the changes versus the new news, I guess versus the November framework is a little bit of a lower run rate, call it like $50 million as an exit rate. And then sort of like this $75 million headwind in the second half and then any assumption on price mix volume, is that it or did I leave something?

抱歉，只是為了澄清與新消息相比的變化，我想與 11 月的框架相比，運行率要低一些，可以稱之為 5000 萬美元的退出率。然後有點像下半年 7500 萬美元的逆風，然後對價格組合量有任何假設，是這樣嗎，還是我遺漏了什麼？

Oh, yeah,(inaudible)we knew back in November. When I answered the question, it may or November, we said we have to come back in February and lay out our guidance for the full year until OEM is certainly a piece of it. Insurance premiums are a headwind against the run rate and then we have these transitional manufacturing costs as part of the recently announced closures in Europe.

哦，是的，（聽不清楚）我們去年 11 月就知道了。當我回答這個問題時，可能是在 11 月，我們說我們必須在 2 月回來並製定全年指導，直到 OEM 肯定是其中的一部分。保險費對運行率構成了阻力，然後我們也面臨最近宣布的歐洲工廠關閉帶來的過渡製造成本。

Okay. And then on the cash side. So, the CapEx was guided to grow and I guess quite a bit higher than it's been recently. I'm missing $1.2 to$1.3 billion that I don't remember it being sort of like a piece of the plan. Can you maybe just elaborate on why this is sort related to.

好的。然後是現金方面。因此，資本支出預計將會成長，而且我預計會比最近的水平高出不少。我遺漏了 12 到 13 億美元，我不記得它是計劃的一部分。您能否詳細解釋一下這與什麼有關？

And then conversely, I think the restructuring batch in the initial plan was going to be $600 million outlay in 2024 now it's $300 million. What does this relate to others incremental efficiency or timing of spend? And does that impact the timing of savings?

相反，我認為最初計劃中的重組批次在 2024 年的支出為 6 億美元，現在是 3 億美元。這與其他人的增量效率或支出時間有什麼關係？這樣會影響儲蓄的時間嗎？

Yes, sure. So, I'll start on the CapEx question and our guidance implies a $200 million increase at the midpoint to support new programs was given a range here. What I would say is, if you assume a weaker environment over the course of 2024, we'll find ourselves at the lower end of that range and at the higher end and more in a more constructive volume environment.

是的，當然。因此，我將開始討論資本支出問題，我們的指導意味著中間點增加 2 億美元以支持新項目，這裡給出了一個範圍。我想說的是，如果假設 2024 年的環境較為疲軟，我們就會發現自己處於該範圍的低端和高端，並且處於一個更具建設性的交易量環境中。

That's typically how we've managed our CapEx spend historically. The step-up is really driven by two different new programs in the Americas to drive mix up once the factory modernization, once the factory expansion modernizations going to convert about 9 million units from LVA to HVA, and that will be at an annualized run rate by the end of 2025.

這通常是我們過去管理資本支出的方式。這項升級實際上是由美洲的兩個不同的新計劃推動的，一旦工廠現代化，工廠擴建現代化將把大約 900 萬台 LVA 轉換為 HVA，這將在 2025 年底達到年化運行率。

And then another I mentioned expansion, that's going to add, call it $2.5 million of HVA capacity for us in (inaudible) wise run rate by the end of 2026. So, getting the full year benefit of that in 2027.

然後我提到的另一個擴張是，到 2026 年底，我們將以 (聽不清楚) 明智的運行率增加 250 萬美元的 HVA 容量。因此，2027 年即可獲得全年利益。

The second question on restructuring. The guidance as part of the November 15th announcement was $1.1 billion. We didn't say that for you, what we've announced up until now is $750 million and just based on the timing of the factory closures that we've outlined, $300 of that falls in 2024, $350 of that falls in 2025, the remainder in 2026. So, it does feel like timing, Emmanuel versus maybe what you had written down to start.

第二個問題，關於重組。11 月 15 日公告中的指導金額為 11 億美元。我們沒有告訴你，到目前為止我們宣布的金額是 7.5 億美元，僅根據我們概述的工廠關閉時間，其中 3 億美元將在 2024 年支付，3.5 億美元將在 2025 年支付，剩餘的將在 2026 年支付。因此，確實感覺像時機已到，Emmanuel 也許與您一開始寫下的內容相反。

Okay, and you're talking about the spending here, the cadence you just gave.

好的，您正在談論這裡的支出，以及您剛才給出的節奏。

I'm sorry, Emmanuel I didn't quite hear you.

抱歉，伊曼紐爾，我沒聽清楚你說什麼。

The $300, $350 and then the remainder of this is the timing of the spending?

300 美元、350 美元以及剩餘的這筆錢是花費的時間嗎？

That's the timing of the $750 million of announced restructuring.

這就是宣布 7.5 億美元重組的時機。

Understood, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you. And this will conclude our call Q&A session, as well as our conference call. Thank you all for your participation and you may disconnect at any time.

謝謝。我們的電話問答環節以及電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與，您可以隨時斷開連線。