Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (GT) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Stephanie, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Goodyear's first quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Greg Shank, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

早安.我叫史蒂芬妮，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加固特異 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Greg Shank。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Today on the call, we have Mark Stewart, our CEO and President, and Christina Zamaro, our Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有我們的執行長兼總裁馬克‧史都華 (Mark Stewart) 和我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂娜‧薩馬羅 (Christina Zamaro)。

During this call, we will refer to forward-looking statements and non-gap financial measures. Forward-looking statements involve risks, assumptions, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將參考前瞻性陳述和非差距財務指標。前瞻性陳述涉及風險、假設和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

For more information on the most significant factors. Could affect future results, please refer to the disclosure sections of the supporting presentation for today's call and our filings with the SEC. These materials can be found on our website at investor.gooyear.com, where a replay of this call will also be available.

有關最重要的因素的更多資訊。可能會影響未來的結果，請參閱今天電話會議的支持性簡報的揭露部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。這些資料可以在我們的網站 investor.gooyear.com 上找到，該網站還提供本次電話會議的重播。

A reconciliation of non-gap financial measures discussed on today's call to the comparable GAAP measures is also included in the appendix of that presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mark.

該簡報的附錄中還包含了今天電話會議上討論的非差距財務指標與可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。說完這些，我現在將電話轉給馬克。

Thank you, Greg, and good morning, everyone and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. We're building on our momentum with a strong start to the year driven by solid operational execution during the first quarter. As we look at our results, Goodyear Forward Workstream delivered $200 million of benefit, the single highest amount we've realized in any quarter as part of the program since we launched.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。由於第一季穩健的營運執行，我們今年開局強勁，並將繼續保持良好勢頭。從我們的結果來看，固特異前進工作流程計畫帶來了 2 億美元的收益，這是我們自啟動計畫以來在任何一個季度實現的最高收益。

At the same time, we're progressing on our planned asset sales and positioning the company's balance sheet for competitiveness as we move forward. This kind of consistent execution is critical as we work through significant inflation and our raw material cost in the first half of this year.

同時，我們正在推動資產出售計劃，並在未來為公司的資產負債表做好競爭力定位。當我們在今年上半年應對嚴重的通貨膨脹和原材料成本時，這種持續的執行至關重要。

It's also what creates the power behind our full year outlook and what gives me confidence in our ability to deliver on our good year forward target at the end of this year. Turning to the business environment, light vehicle production has become significantly more uncertain in the near term as the industry reacts to friction and global trade.

這也是我們全年展望的動力，讓我對我們在今年年底實現良好年度目標的能力充滿信心。談到商業環境，隨著產業對摩擦和全球貿易的反應，輕型汽車生產在短期內變得更加不確定。

We remain well positioned in our consumer OE business with our mix of luxury, EV, and light truck figment wins. As you've seen in our results, we continue to demonstrate significant growth in the OE market share in the US, as well as (AAA).

憑藉豪華車、電動車和輕型卡車的出色表現，我們在消費者原廠設備業務中仍佔據有利地位。正如您在我們的結果中所看到的，我們在美國原始設備市場份額繼續顯著增長，以及（AAA）。

Importantly, we remain confident in the continued strength of our value proposition with our OEM customers going forward. In consumer replacement, first quarter industry volume followed recent trends with the low-end imports outperforming industry members in both the US and in (EEA).

重要的是，我們仍然對我們未來為 OEM 客戶帶來的價值主張的持續強勁充滿信心。在消費品替代產品方面，第一季產業銷售遵循近期趨勢，低端進口產品在美國和歐洲的表現均優於產業成員。（歐洲經濟區）。

With that as a backdrop for us in the first quarter, we gained share in the more profitable 18 inch and greater rim size, and that segment, as is very important for us, and we outperformed industry members in the quarter.

在此背景下，我們在第一季獲得了更有利可圖的 18 吋和更大輪圈尺寸的份額，而這一細分市場對我們來說非常重要，我們在本季度的表現優於行業其他公司。

Delivering outsized growth in this profitable segment is key to our strategy, and we're making tremendous progress as we work towards fully unlocking our potential to maximize the larger REM size opportunities.

在這個獲利領域實現超額成長是我們策略的關鍵，我們在努力充分釋放潛力以最大限度地利用更大規模的 REM 機會的過程中取得了巨大的進步。

To do that, we're demanding efficiency in our manufacturing operations and achieving that. We're leveraging the strength of our global business and our product offerings and partnering with aligned distributors to ensure our products are available to consumers across all market channels.

為了實現這一目標，我們要求提高製造營運效率並實現這一目標。我們正在利用全球業務和產品的優勢，並與一致的經銷商合作，以確保我們的產品能夠透過所有市場管道提供給消費者。

We've also assigned David Aart to be our product strategy leader coming from a strong background in engineering as well as consumer sales and Maya. David is leading the charge for that with us, together with our engineering leader Chris Helsel.

我們還任命 David Aart 擔任我們的產品策略領導者，他擁有豐富的工程以及消費者銷售和 Maya 背景。David 和我們的工程負責人 Chris Helsel 一起負責這項工作。

As we shared with you on our last call, one of the ways we're driving growth in the premium segment is through unprecedented number of new product launches.

正如我們在上次電話會議上與您分享的那樣，我們推動高端市場成長的方式之一是推出數量空前的新產品。

As one example, this quarter we extended the lineup of our industry leading ultra-high performance summer tire, the Goodyear Eagle F1 Asymmetric 6. We will increase this line's offering to nearly 250 SKUs this year, making it the largest ultra-high performance summer tire offering ever in Goodyear's history.

舉個例子，本季我們擴大了業界領先的超高性能夏季輪胎固特異 Eagle F1 Asymmetric 6 的產品線。今年，我們將把該系列的供應量增加到近 250 個 SKU，使其成為固特異史上最大的超高性能夏季輪胎產品。

And this tire comes with an entitlement to compete. Our products are perfectly positioned and continue to set the benchmark in the industry. The Asymmetric 6 was recently awarded AutoBuild's top spot in this year's summer tire test. It has also propelled Goodyear to be named the top manufacturer of the year for the '25 summer season.

這款輪胎還附帶參賽資格。我們的產品定位完美，並繼續在業界樹立標竿。Asymmetric 6 最近在 AutoBuild 的今年夏季輪胎測試中榮獲第一名。這也使得固特異被評為 2025 年夏季年度最佳製造商。

As you all know, we have planned for multiple product launches in the US this year. As we build out our suite of power lines, we're also growing our offering of Cooper products as well. Sell out of Cooper branded products during the first quarter at retail was strong. In fact, it's been gaining momentum. We have very high expectations for this offering in the coming quarters.

眾所周知，我們計劃今年在美國推出多款產品。在我們擴大電力線套件的同時，我們也在擴大 Cooper 產品的供應。第一季 Cooper 品牌產品零售銷售強勁。事實上，這一趨勢正在不斷增強。我們對未來幾季的該產品寄予厚望。

Turning our views on the US replacement industry moving forward, we don't yet have a clear read as to whether import flows coming into the US are slowing based on recently announced tariffs. Our base case assumes there's still some lag due to the long supply chains, particularly out of Southeast Asia.

談到我們對美國替代產業未來發展的看法，我們尚不清楚根據最近宣布的關稅，進入美國的進口流量是否正在放緩。我們的基本情況假設由於供應鏈較長（尤其是東南亞），仍存在一些滯後。

In any case, the timing is right. The timing is right to evolve and to build out our product portfolio. Likewise, the timing is right, as we discussed with you last quarter for the ramp up of our US factory modernization programs, increasing our capacity by 10 million additional premium tires this year in '25 and next year in '26.

無論如何，時機已經成熟。現在是發展和擴展我們的產品組合的最佳時機。同樣，時機也很好，正如我們上個季度與您討論的那樣，我們將加大美國工廠現代化計劃的力度，在今年（25 年）和明年（26 年）分別增加 1000 萬條優質輪胎的產能。

The timing is also right as we've made major upgrades as to how we're connecting with our consumers. You may have noticed we recently launched an awesome marketing campaign called Still Goodyear, which launched during the NFL draft a few weeks back. It's truly a powerful testament to Goodyear's legacy and our excellence in performance and innovation.

時機也恰到好處，因為我們對與消費者的聯繫方式進行了重大升級。您可能已經注意到，我們最近推出了一項名為 Still Goodyear 的精彩行銷活動，該活動於幾週前的 NFL 選秀期間啟動。這確實有力地證明了固特異的傳統以及我們在性能和創新方面的卓越表現。

In short, we're focused on each of the elements critical to driving success in our US business, and we are ready to capture all opportunities for profitable volume as the year unfolds.

簡而言之，我們專注於推動美國業務成功的每一個關鍵要素，並且我們準備好抓住新年到來時的所有獲利機會。

Before I move on from replacement, I wanted to briefly comment on our Asia Pacific business where we saw the majority of our replacement volume decline during the quarter. Asia Pacific's lower volume was largely driven by intentional choices we made as a team to exit less profitable, low margin replacement business outside of China.

在討論替換業務之前，我想簡要評論一下我們的亞太業務，我們發現本季度我們的大部分替換量均有所下降。亞太地區銷售的下降主要是因為我們團隊有意退出中國以外利潤較低、利潤率較低的替代業務。

Like our other region, AP is focused on power line introduction in new luxury and EV products where we saw 25% growth in volume during the quarter. With this momentum, we expect to see sequential improvements in Q2, with a gearing again towards growth in the second half of the year.

與我們的其他地區一樣，亞太地區專注於在新型豪華車和電動車產品中引入電力線，本季我們的電力線銷量增加了 25%。憑藉這一勢頭，我們預計第二季經濟將持續改善，下半年經濟將再次成長。

As we look at Asia Pacific's performance for the quarter, and after adjusting their results for the sale of the OTR business, the region delivered year-over-year earnings growth and SOI margin improvements of about 200 basis points.

我們回顧亞太地區本季的表現，在調整了 OTR 業務銷售業績後，我們發現該地區的盈利同比增長，SOI 利潤率提高了約 200 個基點。

Looking ahead, it's nearly certain that we will continue to see some volatility in our markets related to US trade policy for Goodyear, as the largest US manufacturer already delivering on a turnaround through a major transformation program, it's also clear that we have a lot of opportunity in front of us.

展望未來，幾乎可以肯定，我們將繼續看到與美國貿易政策相關的市場波動，固特異作為美國最大的製造商，已經通過一項重大轉型計劃實現了扭虧為盈，顯然，我們面前有很多機會。

Underpinning all of the improvements we are making to the core business is our success of the Goodyear Forward program. We are now six quarters in and we have met or exceeded each of our quarterly targets along the way. It is not only that we're delivering on our planned savings, we're also changing the expectations to a culture of high performance here at Goodyear, to one of no excuses and to one where we are always focused on winning as we've defined winning.

我們對核心業務所做的所有改進都以固特異前進計畫的成功為基礎。我們已經度過了六個季度，並且已經達到或超過了每個季度的目標。我們不僅實現了計畫中的節約，也改變了人們對固特異高績效文化的期望，這種文化是沒有藉口的，我們始終專注於勝利，正如我們所定義的勝利。

We will continue to diligently adapt to the global trade landscape and developments in the macroeconomic environment. Ensuring we take action to mitigate headwinds when required, but more importantly, ensuring that we are squarely lined up to take advantage of every opportunity the market affords going forward.

我們將繼續努力適應全球貿易格局和宏觀經濟環境的發展。確保我們在必要時採取行動來減輕不利因素，但更重要的是，確保我們能夠充分利用市場未來提供的每一個機會。

Now I'll turn it over to Christina to take you through the financials and we'll move on to the Q&A. Thank you.

現在我將把時間交給克里斯蒂娜，讓她向您介紹財務狀況，然後我們進入問答環節。謝謝。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. As Mark mentioned, we've made significant progress on our deleveraging goals this year with the sale of our OTR business in February and as we announced last night, the finalization of the sale of Dunlop to SRI.

謝謝大家，早安。正如馬克所提到的，今年我們在去槓桿目標方面取得了重大進展，我們在 2 月出售了 OTR 業務，並且昨晚宣布最終將 Dunlop 出售給 SRI。

Thank you to all of our associates who have worked to deliver these tremendous outcomes as part of Goodyear Forward.

感謝所有為 Goodyear Forward 專案做出貢獻並取得如此巨大成果的同事。

Under the Dunlop sale agreement, Goodyear will continue to manufacture, sell, and distribute Dunlop branded consumer tires in Europe through a transition period that will last through the end of this year. During this time, we'll pay a royalty to SRI on Dunlop's sales, but we will otherwise retain all profits.

根據鄧祿普銷售協議，固特異將在持續至今年底的過渡期內繼續在歐洲生產、銷售和分銷鄧祿普品牌的消費輪胎。在此期間，我們將根據鄧祿普的銷售額向 SRI 支付版稅，但除此之外，我們將保留所有利潤。

Beginning next year, we'll supply tires to SRI under an off-take agreement for a period of up to five years. Further details about the transaction can be found on our investor website in a separate presentation.

從明年開始，我們將根據一份為期最長五年的承購協議向 SRI 供應輪胎。有關此交易的更多詳細資訊請參閱我們投資者網站上的單獨簡報。

I'll note that the chemicals business remains under strategic review, and we are engaged with multiple interested parties on this potential transaction. We'll share more as we're able to in the future. We continue to expect to generate gross proceeds of at least $2 billion from asset sales as part of Goodyear Forward.

我要指出的是，化學品業務仍處於戰略審查之中，我們正在與多個感興趣的方就這一潛在交易進行接觸。我們將來會盡可能分享更多資訊。我們仍然預計，作為 Goodyear Forward 項目的一部分，資產出售將帶來至少 20 億美元的總收益。

Turning to our first quarter results, I'll begin with the income statement on slide 9. First quarter sales were $4.3 billion, down 6% from last year, given lower volume and unfavorable foreign currency translation. Unit volume was 5% lower, driven by declines in consumer replacement volume in Asia Pacific and Americas.

談到我們的第一季業績，我將從投影片 9 上的損益表開始。第一季銷售額為 43 億美元，較去年同期下降 6%，原因是銷售下降和外匯折算不利。由於亞太地區和美洲的消費者更換量下降，單位銷售量下降了 5%。

Gross margin declined 70 basis points. On the other hand, SAG costs were lower, $46 million, which relates to Goodyear Forward. Segment operating income for the quarter was $195 million and slightly ahead of our expectations.

毛利率下降了70個基點。另一方面，SAG 成本較低，為 4,600 萬美元，這與 Goodyear Forward 有關。本季分部營業收入為 1.95 億美元，略高於我們的預期。

Goodyear net income increased to $115 million driven by a $260 million dollar gain on the sale of the OTR business. Our results were impacted by other significant items including rationalization charges of $81 million after adjusting for these items are loss per share was $0.04.

固特異淨收入增加至 1.15 億美元，這得益於出售 OTR 業務獲得的 2.6 億美元收益。我們的業績受到其他重大項目的影響，包括 8,100 萬美元的合理化費用，調整這些項目後每股虧損為 0.04 美元。

Turning to the segment operating com walk on slide 10. The sale of the OTR business reduced earnings $12 million during the first quarter. After this change in scope, our segment operating income declined $40 million versus last year. Lower tire unit volume and factory utilization were a headwind of $52 million. Price mix was $68 million driven by pricing actions across our key markets. This partly offset higher raw material costs of $181 million.

前往投影片 10 上的部分操作 com walk。OTR 業務的出售導致第一季收益減少 1,200 萬美元。此次範圍變更後，我們部門的營業收入較去年同期下降了 4,000 萬美元。輪胎產量和工廠利用率的下降造成了 5,200 萬美元的損失。價格組合為 6800 萬美元，由我們主要市場的定價行動推動。這部分抵銷了1.81億美元的原物料成本上漲。

Goodyear Forward initiatives contributed $200 million. Inflation and other costs were $55 million, and other SOI was a headwind of $8 million. Turning to the cash flow and balance sheet on slide 11, our free cash flow use was relatively stable versus last year and reflects seasonal increases in working capital.

固特異前進計畫捐贈了 2 億美元。通貨膨脹和其他成本為 5500 萬美元，其他 SOI 則造成 800 萬美元的不利影響。轉到幻燈片 11 上的現金流量和資產負債表，我們的自由現金流量使用情況與去年相比相對穩定，反映了營運資本的季節性增加。

Pro forma for the Dunlop transaction, our first quarter net debt declined almost $1 billion which reflects the proceeds from asset sales this year, net of cash used for working capital and restructuring as part of Goodyear Forward over the last 12 months.

鄧祿普交易的備考數據是，我們第一季的淨債務減少了近 10 億美元，這反映了今年資產出售的收益，扣除了過去 12 個月作為固特異前進計劃一部分用於營運資本和重組的現金。

Earlier in the quarter, we used the proceeds from the sale of OTR to repay $500 million outstanding on our 9.5% notes, and the remainder was used to reduce balances on our revolving credit lines. We use the proceeds from the Dunlop sale to address upcoming debt maturities. Moving to the SPU results on slide 13, America's unit volume decreased 600,000 units, driven by consumer replacement.

本季度早些時候，我們使用出售 OTR 所得款項償還了 9.5% 票據的 5 億美元未償還金額，剩餘部分用於減少循環信貸額度的餘額。我們利用鄧祿普出售所得的收益來解決即將到期的債務。轉到投影片 13 上的 SPU 結果，受消費者更換的影響，美國的單位數量減少了 60 萬台。

The US consumer replacement industry was relatively flat in the quarter, although low-end imports outperformed the industry and grew approximately 10%. In this environment, we continued to focus on the premium segment of the market, driving growth ahead of US TMA members in the larger in sizes.

本季美國消費品替代產業表現相對平穩，但低端進口產品表現優於整個產業，成長了約 10%。在這種環境下，我們繼續專注於高端市場，推動大尺寸產品的成長，領先美國TMA會員。

Commercial OE and replacement volume declined following industry weakness. Segment operating income was $155 million or 6.2% of sales, a decrease of $24 million compared to last year.

由於行業疲軟，商業 OE 和更換量下降。分部營業收入為 1.55 億美元，佔銷售額的 6.2%，與去年相比減少 2,400 萬美元。

On slide 14, EIA's first quarter unit volume decreased 2%. Europe's consumer replacement industry grew 5%, reflecting high single digit growth of low-end imports. Our OE volume grew despite significant contraction in the industry as new fitment winds ramped up production during the first quarter.

在投影片 14 上，EIA 第一季的單位交易量下降了 2%。歐洲消費品替代產業成長了5%，反映出低端進口產品呈現高個位數成長。儘管行業大幅萎縮，但由於新配件風在第一季提高了產量，我們的 OE 銷售仍實現成長。

Segment operating income was a loss of $5 million, decreasing $13 million versus last year, driven by higher raw material costs. Turning to Asia Pacific on slide 15, first quarter unit volume decreased 12%, driven by replacement volume, which reflects a strategic decision to exit less profitable business and channel destocking.

由於原物料成本上漲，該部門營業收入虧損 500 萬美元，較去年同期減少 1,300 萬美元。轉向第 15 張投影片上的亞太地區，第一季單位銷售量下降了 12%，原因是更換量下降，這反映了退出利潤較低的業務和通路去庫存的策略決策。

OE volume was also lowered despite overall industry growth given our own customer mix. Segment operating income was $45 million and 9.5% to sales. Excluding the sale of the OTR business, Asia Pacific's segment operating income increased slightly, and SOI margin grew nearly 200 basis points.

儘管整個行業正在成長，但考慮到我們自己的客戶結構，OE 銷量也有所下降。分部營業收入為 4,500 萬美元，佔銷售額的 9.5%。不計OTR業務的出售，亞太區分部營業收入略有成長，SOI利潤率成長近200個基點。

Before we turn to the outlook, I wanted to provide some context on the impact of section 232 tariffs on the industry and on our own business based on the rates effective today. In total, the US consumer tire industry includes about 300 million tires in OE and replacement, and we estimate that just over 50% of that supply is sourced from non-USMCA countries.

在我們討論前景之前，我想根據今天生效的稅率，提供一些關於第 232 條關稅對行業和我們自己業務的影響的背景資訊。總體而言，美國消費輪胎產業包括約 3 億條原廠輪胎和替換輪胎，我們估計其中略高於 50% 的供應來自非 USMCA 國家。

We sell about 60 million units in the US annually. As for our own sourcing, about 12% of our supply for the US is sourced from non-USMCA countries. Our factories in Canada and Mexico are fully compliant with USMCA.

我們每年在美國銷售約 6,000 萬台。至於我們自己的採購，我們向美國提供的供應中約有 12% 來自非 USMCA 國家。我們在加拿大和墨西哥的工廠完全符合 USMCA。

In effect, this means that Goodyear's US tariff exposure equates to about one quarter of the average for the industry. This is no doubt a significant advantage for our US business going forward. In addition to tariffs on consumer tires, we will also incur tariffs on imported raw materials and to a lesser extent, commercial tires. In aggregate, we expect annualized costs of approximately $300 million based on our planned sourcing and tariff rates applicable today.

實際上，這意味著固特異在美國的關稅風險相當於該產業平均的四分之一。這無疑對我們未來美國業務的發展有重大優勢。除了對消費輪胎徵收關稅外，我們還將對進口原材料徵收關稅，在較小程度上，對商用輪胎也徵收關稅。總體而言，根據我們目前計劃的採購和適用的關稅稅率，我們預計年成本約為 3 億美元。

As we look at our outlook for 2025, we continue to expect to deliver our good year forward targets of 10% SOI margin and net leverage of under 2.5 times in the fourth quarter of this year, and earnings in line with the 1.3 billion reference during our fourth quarter call.

展望 2025 年，我們仍預計今年第四季將實現良好的年度目標，即 SOI 利潤率達到 10%，淨槓桿率低於 2.5 倍，獲利與我們在第四季度電話會議上預測的 13 億相符。

With our favorable relative positioning, we could see upside to our plan from price mix opportunities or from higher volume.

憑藉我們有利的相對定位，我們可以從價格組合機會或更高的銷售中看到我們計劃的優勢。

We've assumed price mix of about $150 million in the third and fourth quarters, which reflects the realization of our announced pricing to date. We've also assumed our second half volume will be about flat as we prioritize our revenue per tire to offset higher costs.

我們假設第三季和第四季的價格組合約為 1.5 億美元，這反映了我們迄今為止宣布的定價的實現情況。我們也預計下半年的銷售量將基本持平，因為我們優先考慮每條輪胎的收入來抵消更高的成本。

We are presenting a more balanced view for the near term, given an expectation for sell through pre-buy in the second and third quarters and the potential for increased competitive pressure in our international businesses, particularly as tires originally destined for the US may be redirected to other locations.

考慮到預計第二季和第三季的銷售將透過預購實現，以及我們國際業務的競爭壓力可能加劇，特別是因為原本運往美國的輪胎可能會被轉運到其他地方，因此我們對短期前景持更平衡的看法。

I'll note that we continue to anticipate that the European Commission may make a consumer tire tariff determination as to unfair competition in the coming months. Turning to the second quarter outlook, we expect global unit volumes to decline approximately 2%, given elevated wholesale channel inventories in the US and lower volume in Asia Pacific.

我要指出的是，我們繼續預期歐盟委員會可能會在未來幾個月就不公平競爭做出消費者輪胎關稅裁定。展望第二季度，鑑於美國批發通路庫存增加以及亞太地區銷量下降，我們預計全球銷量將下降約 2%。

In addition, we expect higher unabsorbed fixed costs of $20 million driven by lower production during the first quarter. Price mix is expected to be a benefit of about $135 million driven by the benefit of recent pricing actions and raw material index contracts with OE and Fleet customers.

此外，由於第一季產量下降，我們預計未吸收固定成本將增加 2,000 萬美元。受近期定價行動以及與 OE 和 Fleet 客戶簽訂的原材料指數合約的推動，價格組合預計將帶來約 1.35 億美元的收益。

Raw material costs will increase approximately $180 million driven by natural rubber price increases and currency transaction costs. At current spot and currency rates, Q3 raw materials will be a headwind of $50 million, and Q4 raw materials will flip to a benefit of about $25 million.

受天然橡膠價格上漲和貨幣交易成本的影響，原物料成本將增加約 1.8 億美元。以目前的現貨和匯率計算，第三季原物料將帶來 5,000 萬美元的逆風，而第四季原物料將帶來約 2,500 萬美元的收益。

Goodyear Forward will drive benefits of approximately $190 million reflecting continued progress across all of our work streams. Inflation, tariffs, and other costs are expected to be a headwind of approximately $120 million, reflecting higher costs given US tariff impacts on finished goods and raw materials, and a global inflation rate of about 3%.

Goodyear Forward 將帶來約 1.9 億美元的收益，體現出我們所有工作流程的持續進步。通貨膨脹、關稅和其他成本預計將造成約 1.2 億美元的不利影響，這反映出美國關稅對成品和原材料的影響以及全球約 3% 的通貨膨脹率導致成本上升。

In addition, this amount captures increases in transportation costs and transitory manufacturing costs associated with announced facility closures. If current tariff rates hold, these costs will be approximately $175 million in Q3 and about the same level in the fourth quarter.

此外，該金額還涵蓋了與宣布關閉工廠相關的運輸成本和暫時製造成本的增加。如果維持目前關稅稅率，第三季這些成本將達到約 1.75 億美元，第四季則大致持平。

Foreign exchange will be a headwind of approximately $10 million. Other will be a headwind of $15 million driven by increases in marketing and other miscellaneous costs. Finally, the non-recurrence of insurance proceeds received last year, it will be $63 million and the sale of OTR is $23 million.

外匯將帶來約 1000 萬美元的逆風。其他方面，由於行銷和其他雜費增加，公司將面臨 1500 萬美元的逆風。最後，去年收到的非經常性保險收益為 6,300 萬美元，OTR 銷售額為 2,300 萬美元。

Looking beyond Q2, we expect significant benefits in price mix and from Goodyear forward, which will support solid earnings growth, positive free cash flow generation for the year, and significant margin expansion.

展望第二季度之後，我們預計價格組合和固特異未來將帶來顯著收益，這將支持全年穩健的盈利增長、正的自由現金流產生以及利潤率的大幅提升。

Other financial assumptions on slide 18 have been updated to reflect our latest estimate for working capital, which has been adjusted for the impact of tariffs on our working capital. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

投影片 18 上的其他財務假設已更新，以反映我們對營運資本的最新估計，該估計已根據關稅對我們營運資本的影響進行了調整。好了，我們現在可以回答您的問題了。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We'll go first to James Picarello with BNP Pair boss.

謝謝。（操作員指示）我們先去找 BNP Pair 老闆 James Picarello。

Hey, good morning everybody. And appreciate, all the great color on the on the call this morning. So I just want to clarify, I thought it was pretty crystal clear, but the price mix in the third quarter and fourth quarter, it's $150 million year-to-year in the bridge for each quarter in the right.

嘿，大家早安。並且感謝今天早上電話中呈現的所有精彩色彩。所以我只想澄清一下，我認為這非常清楚，但第三季和第四季的價格組合，每季的橋樑年價格是 1.5 億美元。

That's right, James.

沒錯，詹姆斯。

Okay. And that are you seeing other, your competition also follows through on price I imagine everybody, is pricing to an extent right with tariffs right in front of it, but.

好的。並且，您看到其他競爭對手也在價格上保持一致，我想每個人的定價都是在關稅面前進行，但是。

Yeah, can you just maybe provide some competitive color on the pricing because you know raw materials are now guided about $100 million lower for the full year, right, for your, for yourself, so yeah, if you could speak to those thanks.

是的，您能否提供一些具有競爭力的定價信息，因為您知道，對於您自己來說，原材料的指導價格目前全年大約要低 1 億美元，所以，是的，如果您能談談這些，謝謝。

Yeah, sure, James. I mean, we won't comment on any individual competitors. I'd say across the board we've seen very significant price increases among the competitive set. I mean, I think that's all just in relation to the tariff exposure.

是的，當然，詹姆斯。我的意思是，我們不會對任何個別競爭對手發表評論。我想說，我們已經看到競爭對手的價格全面大幅上漲。我的意思是，我認為這都與關稅風險有關。

That we described in our prepared remarks, I mean, our own exposure is probably about a quarter of what others will see when you look at the $300 million that we laid out, I'd say you could think about, 80% of that flowing through into our consumer business that equates to about $4 per tire.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所描述的，我的意思是，我們自己的風險敞口可能只有其他人的四分之一，當你看看我們投入的 3 億美元時，我想你可以想想，其中 80% 流入了我們的消費者業務，相當於每個輪胎 4 美元。

And I think that, based on our analysis of the competitive set, our competitors will be anywhere in the area of three to four times that level of exposure. And so there's a big need to go out there and offset some of this cost. It's, there's just so much, many imports coming into the US.

我認為，根據我們對競爭格局的分析，我們的競爭對手的曝光度將是我們的三到四倍。因此，我們非常有必要採取一些措施來抵銷部分成本。有大量的進口商品進入美國。

Yeah. Yeah, and given your predominant US footprint.

是的。是的，考慮到你們主要在美國的足跡。

Yeah, I imagine market share opportunities will be, will present themselves. One clarifying question as well on tariffs within the $120 million inflation and other bucket for the second quarter, what constitutes tariffs specifically there and then for the full year, the same question. Thanks.

是的，我想市場佔有率機會將會出現。還有一個需要澄清的問題，關於第二季 1.2 億美元通膨和其他範圍內的關稅，具體包括哪些關稅，以及全年的關稅，同樣的問題。謝謝。

Sure. So, I'll take you through, all of the basket of inflation tariffs and other costs, and I'll start with the annual, James. It's our annual inflation runs about $225 million. That's 3% on our cost base. And then the tariff, we've already said $300 million and then annualized cost. We also then and if you do the math on Q2 for modeling, you should get to a number of close to $50 million in Q2 and then yeah that'll take a step up in the in Q3 and Q4.

當然。因此，我將帶您了解所有通貨膨脹關稅和其他成本，我將從年度開始，詹姆斯。我們的年度通貨膨脹率約為 2.25 億美元。這占我們成本基礎的 3%。然後是關稅，我們已經說過 3 億美元，然後是年成本。然後，如果您對第二季度進行建模計算，您應該會得到接近 5000 萬美元的數字，然後在第三和第四季度，這個數字會有所上升。

Other cost inflation though also includes any excess cost over and above inflation. You'll see that that increases a bit in the second half of the year, particularly as we have three restructurings occurring at the same time in the in the second half, and that's the ramp down of two factories in Germany.

其他成本通膨還包括超出通膨的任何超額成本。您會發現，下半年這一數字會略有增加，特別是因為我們下半年同時進行了三次重組，並且關閉了德國的兩家工廠。

One in the US and that temporarily creates inefficiencies in our factories, increases our costs, but that's all included in that guidance for 175 in the third quarter and then in the fourth quarter as well.

其中一個在美國，這暫時導致我們工廠效率低下，增加了我們的成本，但這些都包含在第三季和第四季的 175 個預測中。

Much appreciated, thanks.

非常感謝，謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you, we'll move next to Eta Melli with TD Cowan.

謝謝，接下來我們將與 TD Cowan 一起前往 Eta Melli。

Great, thanks. Good morning, everybody, and appreciate all the details as well. Just two questions for me first, on the tariff impact of $300 million, just curious, whether there's some potential for mitigation, for that over time just given your strong US capacity, opportunity, and maybe other offsets that you might explore for that.

太好了，謝謝。大家早安，也感謝所有的細節。首先，我只問兩個問題，關於 3 億美元關稅的影響，我只是好奇，考慮到美國強大的產能、機會以及您可能探索的其他抵消措施，隨著時間的推移，是否有可能緩解這一影響。

Yeah, so maybe I can start and then Christina can can kind of reiterate a few of the things and say good morning to you. We've got, as you mentioned, we feel we're in a really favorable strong position, right? Having the largest US footprint.

是的，也許我可以開始了，然後克里斯蒂娜可以重申一些事情並向你們說早安。正如您所說，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的強勢地位，對嗎？擁有美國最大的足跡。

From that side as well, I think as we've shared with you guys on earlier quarterly calls, we've already been embarking on this journey really over the last couple of years, but in '25 and '26 we're going to be continuing to upgrade our UMS facilities with about $10 million of high value, high. High rim size and the bigger profit pool size tires to more competitively compete and win in that marketplace as we shared as well, with a tremendous amount of new high rim sizes being launched in the US, coupled with the fact that we do have that large US footprint.

從這方面來說，我想正如我們在之前的季度電話會議上與大家分享的那樣，我們在過去幾年中已經真正踏上了這一旅程，但在 25 年和 26 年，我們將繼續投資約 1000 萬美元的高價值、高成本來升級我們的 UMS 設施。高輪圈尺寸和更大的利潤池尺寸輪胎將在市場上更具競爭力地競爭並獲勝，正如我們所分享的那樣，美國推出了大量新的高輪圈尺寸，再加上我們在美國擁有龐大的足跡。

We, we're looking for those opportunities, but we also want to be want to be, really mitigate that factor if you will, by just by watching this on a month-by-month basis, working with our customers and working with, the distributors and the retailers on it.

我們正在尋找這些機會，但我們也希望透過逐月關注這一情況，與我們的客戶、分銷商和零售商合作，真正減輕這一因素的影響。

Terrific. Thanks for that for that detail. And then the second question, I'm hoping you could just expand a bit more on some of the assumptions in your second half volume assumption.

了不起。感謝您提供如此詳細的資訊。然後是第二個問題，我希望您能夠進一步闡述下半年銷售假設中的一些假設。

I think you mentioned kind of flat volume year over year. Maybe just talk about assumptions on share macro, maybe a little bit if you could share kind of the regional view within that outlook as well. Thank you.

我認為您提到了同比銷量持平的情況。也許只是談論一下對宏觀份額的假設，也許您也可以分享一下該前景中的區域觀點。謝謝。

So I'll go ahead and get started, EK. I think what we've described in our prepared remarks is recovery in Asia Pacific turning to growth in the second half. We had a really negative first quarter driven by choices we made to exit some of the lower end of the market in Asia Pack that helped boost margins. We'll still see a drag in Asia pacific in the second quarter, but then I think we'll begin to get some growth in in EMEA.

那我繼續開始吧，EK。我認為我們在準備好的發言中所描述的是亞太地區下半年將復甦並轉向成長。由於我們選擇退出亞洲包裝領域的部分低端市場（這有助於提高利潤率），第一季我們的業績表現非常糟糕。我們仍會看到亞太地區在第二季度出現拖累，但我認為歐洲、中東和非洲地區將開始出現一些成長。

I think that our first quarter volume was just slightly negative. Our expectation is, a strengthening volume over the course of the rest of the year. Of course, in the US, I think we still have a really rough sell through dynamic in Q2 and Q3 in particular all around.

我認為我們第一季的銷量略微出現負成長。我們的預期是，今年剩餘時間內交易量將會增強。當然，在美國，我認為我們在第二季和第三季的銷售情況仍然非常糟糕。

This sellout of low and pre-buy that has just filled the channels and so I think, the US will still be pretty tough. I also think Latin America volume will be tough as well and that I think a lot of volatility is still around. And I think we all appreciate that, but the expectation is that we will continue to grow a lot of market share just like you've seen from us here over the last couple of quarters just given our fitment winds on the SUVs, light trucks, and EVs over the last couple of few years.

低價和預購的拋售已經填滿了整個管道，所以我認為，美國的情況仍然會相當艱難。我也認為拉丁美洲的交易量也會很艱難，而且我認為仍然存在很大的波動性。我想我們都對此表示讚賞，但預計我們的市場份額將繼續大幅增長，就像您在過去幾個季度看到的那樣，這得益於我們在過去幾年中在 SUV、輕型卡車和電動車上的裝配風。

Yeah, and that should flow through as well. I say from the just to call a few of those out, right? We have been winning with the winners in the marketplace with like Chevy Silverado, Dodge Ram, the Ford F-150s, and, just in the first quarter we had about a 0.5 point of share growth in that OE segment and that that should flow on through in the replacement cycles as well, so.

是的，這也應該順利進行。我說的只是從中挑出幾個來，對吧？我們憑藉雪佛蘭 Silverado、道奇 Ram、福特 F-150 等車型在市場上贏得了勝利，僅在第一季度，我們在 OE 領域的份額就增長了約 0.5 個百分點，而且這種增長也應該會延續到更換週期中。

Yeah, absolutely, that's all great to hear. Thanks for the detail. Thank You.

是的，當然，聽到這些真是太好了。謝謝你的詳細說明。謝謝。

Thank you, we'll move next to Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan.

謝謝，接下來我們請摩根大通的瑞安·布林克曼 (Ryan Brinkman) 發言。

All right, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Just relative to the $300 million of annualized tariff costs on finished goods COGS and raw mats on size 17, which you referenced in your prepared remarks, I realize those costs start now, right? Versus the associated pricing gains, might take more time, just given, all of the inventory that's been built up in the channel during the pre-buy before and now.

好的，太好了。感謝您回答我的問題。僅相對於您在準備好的發言中提到的 17 號成品 COGS 和原材料的 3 億美元年度關稅成本而言，我意識到這些成本現在就開始了，對嗎？與相關的定價收益相比，可能需要更多時間，因為之前和現在預購期間在通路中建立的所有庫存。

After the election, so some questions around how you see that situation evolving from here, including like what is your sense for how much inventory of low cost tires, might be built up in the system relative to normal and how long do you think it will take the industry to work through those elevated inventory levels and then whenever we do work through the oversupply, what kind of pricing gains do you expect to net against those?

選舉之後，您如何看待情況的發展，我想問一些問題，包括您認為系統中可能會積累多少低成本輪胎的庫存（相對於正常情況），您認為行業需要多長時間才能消化掉這些高庫存水平，然後，當我們解決供過於求的問題時，您預計會產生什麼樣的價格收益？

$300 million of higher annualized costs, given your costs will increase less than the overall industries. Are you expecting, and I think it would be a very reasonable expectation, are you expecting the pricing gains to be well in excess of $300 million or maybe you'll exploit share gain? Is there a reason to reassess the 10% SOI margin target longer term? What do you Think?

假設您的成本增幅低於整個行業，則年度成本將增加 3 億美元。我認為這是一個非常合理的預期，您是否預期定價收益將遠遠超過 3 億美元，或者您會利用股票收益？是否有理由長期重新評估 10% SOI 利潤目標？你怎麼認為？

So that was a mouthful, Ryan we'll take it in.

所以這是一個很大的問題，瑞安，我們會接受的。

Maybe just I'll give it a go, yeah, but give it.

也許我只是嘗試一下，是的，但嘗試一下。

A go, but yeah, as Christina shared, we already have pricing in the market, Ryan, for $135 million of announced price increases that we've already have out there that have been digested or are being digested into the marketplace and I'll let Christina pick up from the, from some of the other details to the going forward, for it Christina, if you want to want to. When I cover the rest of that section, I'll chime in some more here.

好的，但是是的，正如克里斯蒂娜所分享的，我們已經在市場上定價了，瑞恩，我們已經在市場上消化了 1.35 億美元的價格上漲，這些價格已經被消化或正在被市場消化，我會讓克里斯蒂娜從其他一些細節中了解未來的發展，克里斯蒂娜，如果你願意的話。當我講完該部分的其餘部分時，我會在這裡補充更多內容。

Sure, so, Brian, I, we talked about the $300 billion and $240 million of that will flow through to replacement.

當然，布萊恩，我們討論了 3000 億美元，其中 2.4 億美元將用於替換。

So we've announced price increases, as Mark just mentioned already in the US effective May 1, and that's 4%, which and using our modeling assumptions that would be worth $220 million.

因此，我們宣布了價格上漲，正如馬克剛才提到的，從 5 月 1 日起在美國生效，漲幅為 4%，根據我們的模型假設，這將價值 2.2 億美元。

Similarly, we've announced price increases in commercial. We also have opportunities to increase our price mix with our OE customers as well. We're very confident about commercial. We talked about that as well. We've increased price. There of course we'll look at every opportunity to grow our business and increase our price mix as you look at the guidance, we've thought about the flow through of pre-buy carrying through until the third quarter. We have not yet seen a decrease in imports.

同樣，我們也宣布了商業價格上漲。我們也有機會提高面向 OE 客戶的價格組合。我們對商業非常有信心。我們也談論過這個。我們已提高價格。當然，我們會尋找每一個機會來發展我們的業務並增加我們的價格組合，正如您所看到的指導，我們已經考慮過將預購流程延續到第三季。我們尚未看到進口量減少。

It's, I think that the tariffs are effective May 3, and so we may begin to see that after May 3, but have not yet seen, for example, ocean freight rates out of Southeast Asia coming down, which would be an indicator to us that some of those tires have stopped flowing into the US.

我認為關稅將於 5 月 3 日生效，因此我們可能會在 5 月 3 日之後開始看到這種情況，但尚未看到東南亞的海運費下降，這表明部分輪胎已停止流入美國。

And so it's going to take at least through the third quarter to see that play off. I think, you ask about the balance between whether or not tariffs are price or volume opportunity, I'd say, the Goodyear branded products have done really well. Mark referenced that the growth in the capacity that we're looking to achieve in the US over the next year or two.

因此，至少要打完第三節才能看到比賽結束。我認為，當你問到關稅是價格機會還是數量機會之間的平衡時，我會說，固特異品牌產品的表現確實很好。馬克提到，我們希望在未來一兩年內在美國實現產能成長。

And so our plan already includes a lot of good growth in Goodyear branded products, the supply demand dynamics there have been strong. And so that's an area where we're going to focus on driving higher revenue per tire through price and mix in the mid-tier and to the extent, distributors do increase the pricing of low-end products, certainly makes our Cooper offering a lot more attractive in those instances. We do have some extra capacity.

因此，我們的計劃已經包括固特異品牌產品的大量良好成長，其供需動態一直很強勁。因此，我們將專注於透過中端產品的價格和組合來提高每條輪胎的收入，並且在一定程度上，分銷商確實提高了低端產品的定價，這無疑使得我們的 Cooper 產品在這些情況下更具吸引力。我們確實有一些額外的容量。

We're going to work through the economics of price mix and volume just to maximize our earnings and Cooper doesn't directly compete with Tier 3 and tier 4 tires, but because it has such an attractive value proposition, certainly some opportunities for us there.

我們將透過價格組合和銷售的經濟學來實現收益最大化，而 Cooper 並不直接與 Tier 3 和 Tier 4 輪胎競爭，但由於它具有如此有吸引力的價值主張，因此肯定為我們帶來了一些機會。

Okay, thanks. And maybe just an update on the disposition process now that you've got two or three finished. I'm sure you're limited what you can say with regard to chemicals, including about overall proceeds, because you know we can do a process of elimination math. But previously I think investors have regarded chemicals to be maybe the easiest to get done over the shortest timeframe just because there seem to be so many more.

好的，謝謝。現在您已經完成了兩三個，也許只是對處置過程進行更新。我確信您關於化學品（包括整體收益）能說的內容有限，因為您知道我們可以進行消除數學運算。但之前我認為投資人認為化學品可能是最容易在最短時間內完成的交易，因為看起來化學品的選擇更多。

Potential interested buyers and they tend to be, deep pocketed and just up and down the petrochemical space, right? And yet it's the one that remains, historically, I think one thing you liked about it was that it would do better when oil prices were high and not as well when it was, lower oil, so kind of hedge you and now we see the oil's coming down overall that's good for you, but does that tax timing or proceeds at all and having overachieved so far on you know the two that you have completed in terms of the proceeds, does that make you less, sensitive to o timing and more sensitive to proceeds or just what can you say about what remains here on the disposition side?

潛在的買家往往財力雄厚，並且涉足石化領域，對嗎？然而，從歷史上看，它是仍然存在的，我認為你喜歡它的一個原因是，當油價高時它會表現更好，而在油價低時則表現不佳，所以對你來說這是一種對沖，現在我們看到油價整體下降，這對你有利，但這是否對時機或收益徵稅，到目前為止，你已經在收益方面完成了兩項超額完成的任務，這是否讓你對時機不那麼敏感，而對收益更敏感，或者你對處置方面剩下的事情能說些什麼？

Thanks, and I mentioned in the prepared remarks that our chemical process is ongoing and of course we're continuing to evaluate how best to maximize the value of that business. I'd say it was, three major programs that we've been working on over the last 18 months or so.

謝謝，我在準備好的發言中提到，我們的化學過程正在進行中，當然我們也在繼續評估如何最好地最大化該業務的價值。我想說的是，在過去的 18 個月左右的時間裡，我們一直在致力於三個主要項目。

This one was the last one in the market. I think you're right. I think the current environment, whether you're looking at chem prices, whether you're thinking about terrorists, this business for us is more valuable today than say it was six months ago.

這是市場上最後一個了。我認為你是對的。我認為，在當前的環境下，無論你是否關注化學品價格，無論你是否考慮恐怖分子，這項業務對我們來說今天都比六個月前更有價值。

It's the only major synthetic rubber manufacturing site supplying tire manufacturers in the US and so that makes it inherently more valuable, but as part of that strategic and operating review committee, that we held back in 2023, we did conclude that the chem business was non-core, and so the work in front of us is ensuring that we deliver the right strategic value for Goodyear and for our shareholders, and we'll continue to do that and update you more when we can.

它是美國唯一一家為輪胎製造商供應的大型合成橡膠生產基地，因此它本身就更有價值，但作為我們在 2023 年成立的戰略和運營審查委員會的一部分，我們確實得出結論，化學業務是非核心業務，因此我們面前的工作是確保我們為固特異和我們的股東提供正確的戰略價值，我們將繼續這樣做，並在可能時向您提供更多信息。

Okay, very helpful thank you.

好的，非常有幫助，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question will come from Edison you with Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的愛迪生。

Morning. This is James Laholland on for Edison. Two quick questions for me on the SKU rationalization that impacted the Asia segment volumes in the quarter. Should we expect something similar to that to happen in the other geographies throughout the year, or is that going to be predominantly an Asia story and it's going to be relatively complete after the second quarter?

早晨。這是詹姆斯·拉霍蘭為愛迪生報道的。我有兩個關於 SKU 合理化對本季亞洲市場銷售影響的快速問題。我們是否應該預期類似的事情會在全年其他地區發生，或者這將主要發生在亞洲，並且會在第二季後相對完成？

Yeah, thanks, James. As we mentioned, on the AP side that was predominantly outside of China on the skew rationalization. We are actually, we have been going through the same activity both on the America side as well as in a Maya, we've, as we've shared with you guys in the past, we've been really marching forward with our common platforming, if you will, of certain SKUs.

是的，謝謝，詹姆斯。正如我們所提到的，在 AP 方面，偏差合理化主要發生在中國境外。實際上，我們在美國和瑪雅都進行著同樣的活動，正如我們過去與你們分享的那樣，我們一直在推動某些 SKU 的共同平台化。

A looking as well at the retiring of some of the older SKUs as we bring the newer SKUs into the marketplace and really pleased with the results of that with the wins we're getting in terms of performance in terms of consumer take rates and so forth.

當我們將較新的 SKU 引入市場時，我們也在考慮淘汰一些較舊的 SKU，並且對由此產生的結果感到非常滿意，我們在消費者接受率等方面的表現都獲得了勝利。

So yeah, we absolutely are continuing to do that as part of that and as announced with David Aart being the head of our product technology roadmap, it really is, one of our key areas there is looking at The right number of SKUs and complexity within our manufacturing footprint to optimize efficiency, but also the right messaging that we take with our marketing teams out into the marketplace so that we've got the right product for the right folks across the market, but not, and not crowding up but in fact cleaning things up so you'll see more of that.

是的，我們絕對會繼續這樣做，正如產品技術路線圖負責人 David Aart 所宣布的那樣，我們的一個關鍵領域是研究製造足跡中的 SKU 數量和復雜性，以優化效率，同時也研究我們與營銷團隊一起向市場傳達的正確信息，以便我們為市場上合適的人群提供這樣的產品，但不會造成擁擠，而是在清理東西，所以你會看到更多合適的情況。

Great, got it. That's very helpful. And then my second question, so based on your math, let's just say in the US about 6 million tires, give or take, are, non-USMCA. Would you look to fully offset those with the 10 million units coming online from the plant optimization, or should we view that as a source of exports or maybe market share gains? Just how how should we think about that extra 10 million units?

太好了，明白了。這非常有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題，根據您的計算，我們假設美國大約有 600 萬個輪胎是非 USMCA 生產的。您是否希望透過工廠優化上線的 1000 萬台設備來完全抵消這些影響，或者我們是否應該將其視為出口或市場份額增長的來源？我們究竟該如何看待那額外的1000萬台呢？

Yeah, that that 10 million units is actually going more to your first question, right? It really is about us moving into the higher rim sizes and the higher value added proposition piece to it.

是的，這 1000 萬台實際上超過了你的第一個問題，對嗎？這其實關乎我們朝向更大輪圈尺寸和更高附加價值主張的轉變。

And then, we'll utilize that as well as opportunities would come up in the marketplace of other other tires coming in, but we would, part of the that that 10 million is really centered primarily around our Latton facility where we've been doing that massive modernization activity.

然後，我們將利用這一機會以及其他輪胎進入市場的機會，但這 1000 萬美元中的一部分實際上主要集中在我們的 Latton 工廠，我們一直在那裡進行大規模的現代化活動。

Got it alright thanks guys.

好的，明白了，謝謝大家。

Thank you. Our next question will come from Emmanuel Rosner with Wolf Research.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Wolf Research 的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Thanks so much. Good morning. Thanks for all the detail around the outlook. Christina, I was hoping you can maybe just help us put a finer point on a couple of bridges, in particular, maybe sequentially, in a Q2 that's why it doesn't look all that different from You want, but in many ways it's a little bit backward looking.

非常感謝。早安.感謝您提供有關展望的所有詳細資訊。克里斯蒂娜，我希望你能幫助我們在幾個橋樑上做得更好，特別是在 Q2 中，也許是連續的，這就是為什麼它看起來與你想要的並沒有什麼不同，但在很多方面它有點向後看。

So what would the sequential bridge look like towards your double-digit SOI margin by, the fourth quarter? And then also curious about sort of like an updated, free cash flow bridge, to the extent that there are a few, there were just mainly changes in in terms of working capital.

那麼，到第四季度，實現兩位數 SOI 利潤的連續橋樑將會是什麼樣子呢？然後，我也對更新的自由現金流橋感到好奇，在某種程度上，主要的變化是在營運資本方面。

Sure, Emmanuel, thanks. Good morning. So when you look at the sequential earnings from the second quarter, either in the third or the fourth, I'd say two main drivers, and the growth in earnings is all going to come from higher volume and significantly better price mix relative to raw materials, I think.

當然，伊曼紐爾，謝謝。早安.因此，當您查看第二季、第三季或第四季的連續收益時，我會說有兩個主要驅動因素，我認為收益的成長都將來自更高的銷量和相對於原材料明顯更好的價格組合。

As you look at the third and fourth quarters, even in a flat volume environment which we've laid out, the additional growth just coming from volume would be $200 million to $300 million and then the growth that we would see from price mix and raw material. Materials will be a benefit of $100 million in Q3, $175 million in Q4, and that's all relative to a headwind in the second quarter of $45 million.

看看第三季度和第四季度，即使在我們規劃的銷量持平的環境下，僅來自銷量的額外增長就將達到 2 億至 3 億美元，然後我們還會看到來自價格組合和原材料的增長。材料業務將在第三季帶來 1 億美元的收益，在第四季帶來 1.75 億美元的收益，而這一切都是相對於第二季 4,500 萬美元的逆風而言的。

So big step up in volume, even in a flat environment and then. Significant price mix versus raws relative to the first half, and we're just second quarter taking on a whole lot of cost in raw materials also now with tariffs, but we'll begin to get the full realization of pricing in the third quarter which helps us to fully offset that.

即使在平坦的環境中，音量也會大幅增加。與上半年相比，原材料的價格組合顯著變化，而且我們在第二季度還承擔了大量原材料成本，現在還有關稅，但我們將在第三季度開始全面實現定價，這有助於我們完全抵消這一影響。

Thank you. And on the free cash side?

謝謝。那麼免費現金方面呢？

Free cash flow, I, we, what we've done is decrease the source of free cash from working capital. Our guidance at the fourth quarter call was $100 million to $150 million dollar inflow. We reduced that to an inflow of $50 million just given the impact of tariffs on our working capital.

自由現金流，我，我們，我們所做的是減少來自營運資本的自由現金來源。我們在第四季電話會議的預測是流入 1 億至 1.5 億美元。考慮到關稅對我們營運資金的影響，我們將這筆流入額減少至 5,000 萬美元。

So if you look at our free cash flow walk, we said that SOI should be around the same level as last year. If you back out our corporate other costs and add back DNA, you should get to an EBITDA level of about $2.1 billion.

因此，如果你看一下我們的自由現金流走勢，我們會說 SOI 應該與去年的水平大致相同。如果扣除我們公司的其他成本並加上 DNA，EBITDA 水準應該達到約 21 億美元。

And then we talked about the working capital inflow restructurings about $400 million taxes, $200 million interest expense. I have a range still for maybe it's (4) $60 interest income, $40 million positive there cap CapEx of $950 and then a little bit of financing fee should still give you a positive free cash flow for 2025.

然後我們討論了營運資金流入重組，約 4 億美元的稅收，2 億美元的利息支出。我還有一個範圍，也許是（4）60 美元的利息收入，4000 萬美元的正值，上限資本支出為 950 美元，然後一點點融資費用仍然應該會給你帶來 2025 年的正自由現金流。

Got it. Thank you. And then just a little bit more comments around, conceptually and strategically, how do you plan on taking advantage of this tariff, competitive advantage. It looks like, within the full year guidance, you're essentially offsetting, increased cost, direct cost to you, with pricing, but it's sort of like a, one for one offset.

知道了。謝謝。然後從概念和策略上再多評論一下，您計劃如何利用這項關稅和競爭優勢。看起來，在全年指導範圍內，您基本上是透過定價來抵消增加的成本和直接成本，但這有點像一對一的抵消。

Yes, you do have a competitive advantage where your costs are going, up less than, most of the competition. And so directionally, you also mentioned potential for upside, risks on there. So, how would you go about, once you cover your cost, deciding, basically where to allocate the additional op opportunity?

是的，你們確實具有競爭優勢，因為你們的成本漲幅比大多數競爭對手都要低。因此從方向上看，您也提到了上行潛力和風險。那麼，一旦你收回成本，你將如何決定將額外的操作機會分配到哪裡？

Yeah, we're taking a look at it, really from multiple angles, on Emmanuel, we're looking at the the pricing in terms of where the products are positioned in the marketplace. We're also looking at from our engineering side as we continue to bring these new skews into the marketplace as well, make sure we've got the right pricing position and the value for the customer so we obviously will take a look and make sure that we're optimizing that pricing and that that profitability in the marketplace at the same time making sure that we're being very cognizant of the consumer and consumer in the marketplace as well, right?

是的，我們正在從多個角度來審視 Emmanuel，我們正在根據產品在市場上的定位來審視定價。我們也從工程角度考慮，隨著我們繼續將這些新的傾向帶入市場，確保我們擁有正確的定價地位和客戶價值，因此我們顯然會看一看並確保我們正在優化定價和市場盈利能力，同時確保我們非常了解市場上的消費者和消費者，對嗎？

So all that is coming together for the value proposition for them. We'll take a look at it on the OEM side of the house. We'll take a look at it on the replacement side as well. So we we're really making sure that we, we've got quite a few war ends, as you could imagine that we've got things mapped out in that, but we're also watching very carefully right around the inventory in that marketplace because as Christina mentioned, right, there is.

所以，所有這些都為他們提供了價值主張。我們將從 OEM 的角度來看一下。我們也會從替換的角度來看一下。因此，我們確實要確保我們有相當多的戰爭結束，正如你所想像的，我們已經把事情規劃好了，但我們也在非常仔細地觀察那個市場的庫存，因為正如克里斯蒂娜提到的，有。

It feels to be, a large amount of the pre-buy towards that low end side of the stuff that needs to work through the system at the same time. So that's why we're presenting as we are.

感覺上，大量的預購產品都是針對需要同時透過系統工作的低階產品。這就是我們如此呈現的原因。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you (Operator Instructions), Our next question will come from Wesley Brooks, with HSBC.

謝謝（操作員指示），我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Wesley Brooks。

Hi, guys. Thanks for the color around the tariffs and your guidance. I guess a couple of questions from me. One, you talked about the risk obviously of those Asian ties being redirected to your other markets.

嗨，大家好。感謝您對關稅的了解與指導。我想問幾個問題。第一，您談到了這些亞洲關係被轉向其他市場的風險。

Could you just remind us your exposure in Eir and Asia to, sort of tier one versus the mid-tier where you'd be more exposed to that in those markets. And if you have any sort of thoughts on the size of the impact that you could have there.

您能否提醒我們一下，您在愛爾蘭和亞洲的曝光度，有點像一級市場，而不是中級市場，您在這些市場中曝光度會更高。如果您對於可能產生的影響規模有任何想法。

So, yeah, good morning. This is Christina. I'll just jump in to say in Europe. We have Some lower tier brands, mostly are Dembita and our Salva brands that are focused more in the Eastern European countries. Those would be the ones that would be most likely to compete with some of the tier 3 and tier 4 products going into Europe.

是的，早安。這是克里斯蒂娜。我只想說一下歐洲的情況。我們有一些低端品牌，主要是 Dembita 和 Salva 品牌，它們主要集中在東歐國家。這些產品最有可能與進入歐洲的一些三級和四級產品競爭。

What I'd say on the whole, if you look at our volume. And I'm talking specifically about 2024 volumes in consumer for Europe. I'd say about 35% or 40% of it is Goodyear and Cooper branded, all, the remainder, or 20, let me see, 12% would be, this, these brands that I think are. More exposed to those tier 3 and tier 4 imports.

如果你看一下我們的數量，我總體上會這麼說。我具體談論的是 2024 年歐洲的消費量。我認為其中大約 35% 或 40% 是固特異和庫柏品牌，其餘全部或 20%，讓我想想，12% 是這些，我認為是這些品牌。多接觸那些三級和四級進口產品。

Okay, thank you. I mean, Yeah, it doesn't feel like the impact in these markets will be anywhere near. Offsetting the positives in the US, obviously, no?

好的，謝謝。我的意思是，是的，感覺這些市場受到的影響不會太大。顯然，這抵消了美國的正面影響，不是嗎？

And then my other question was more a clarification on the guidance. I think you have a guide for corporate and others being $165 million in the full year. And I just wanted to understand, so you had (57) in Q1, you've got 50 million in Q2. So that means only 30 million run rate in Q3 and Q4. And if we look at the year over year, that's a long way down. I just wanted to understand. What's going on there and what drives the quarterly variance in that.

我的另一個問題是對指導的澄清。我認為您對企業和其他機構的全年指導金額是 1.65 億美元。我只是想了解一下，所以你在第一季有（57），在第二季有 5000 萬。所以這意味著第三季和第四季的運行率只有 3000 萬。如果我們逐年回顧，就會發現這一數字已經大幅下降。我只是想了解一下。那裡發生了什麼以及是什麼導致了季度差異。

So I would say, it's a great question. I would say that that variability in corporate other tends to be very typical and it has to do with a lot of the instead of compensation, accruals that, based on our performance in any given year, will be higher at the beginning of the year or at the end of the year and this year our corporate other is more first half weighted.

所以我想說，這是一個很好的問題。我想說的是，企業其他業務的這種變化往往非常典型，它與許多應計項目有關，而不是薪酬，根據我們在任何一年的業績，這些應計項目在年初或年末會更高，而今年我們的企業其他業務更多地集中在上半年。

Mm. Okay, thanks. And I mean, if I had one last quick one, just the chemical business sale, I mean, the changing environment around tariffs and market, does that change your strategy there? Is that still, does that still make sense? And do you have any updated visibility on the timing of this?

毫米。好的，謝謝。我的意思是，如果我最後快速問一下，只是化學品業務銷售，我的意思是，關稅和市場環境的變化，這會改變你的策略嗎？這樣還有意義嗎？您對此事的時間安排有什麼最新了解嗎？

Sure, so, we chatted about this a little bit earlier, I think, yes, certainly a bit more valuable because it is the only major synthetic rubber supplier for tire manufacturing in the US and just given the tariff environment, that adds some as we think about the overall enterprise value that.

當然，我們之前討論過這個問題，我認為，是的，肯定更有價值，因為它是美國輪胎製造的唯一主要合成橡膠供應商，而且考慮到關稅環境，當我們考慮整體企業價值時，這會增加一些價值。

Business, but I don't think it changes necessarily the conclusion at all that we arrived at back in 2023 that this business is noncore and so you we're continuing I mentioned earlier that this was the last process that we put into the market we're talking with multiple interested parties and no other updates we'll share more when we're able.

業務，但我認為這不一定會改變我們在 2023 年得出的結論，即這項業務是非核心業務，因此我們繼續，我之前提到過，這是我們投入市場的最後一個流程，我們正在與多個感興趣的方進行交談，沒有其他更新，我們將在能夠時分享更多信息。

All right, thank you very much. Yeah.

好的，非常感謝。是的。

Thank you. There are no additional questions at this time. I'd like to now turn the conference back to Mark Stewart for any closing remarks.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。現在我想請馬克·史都華 (Mark Stewart) 致閉幕詞。

Okay, thank you and thank you all for taking the time to join us today for our first quarter earnings call. We continue to build on the momentum that we have from last year and and definitely continue to deliver on the Goodyear Forward initiatives towards that $1.6 billion dollar number that we've shared. We look forward to sharing our continued progress with you guys as we as we proceed through the year and thank you guys and have a great day.

好的，謝謝大家，也謝謝大家今天抽出時間參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。我們將繼續保持去年的良好勢頭，並將繼續履行固特異前進計劃，朝著我們先前宣布的 16 億美元目標邁進。我們期待與你們分享我們在這一年中不斷取得的進步，感謝你們，祝你們有美好的一天。

Thank you for joining Goodyear's first quarter 2025 earnings call. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加固特異 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。