通用汽車 (GM) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the General Motors Company Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, Tuesday, February 1, 2022.

下午好，歡迎參加通用汽車公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次電話會議將於 2022 年 2 月 1 日星期二進行錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Rocky Gupta, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Rocky Gupta。

Thanks, Jordan. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the fourth quarter and calendar year 2021. Our conference call materials were issued earlier this afternoon and are available on the GM Investor Relations website. We are also broadcasting this call via webcast.

謝謝，喬丹。下午好，感謝您加入我們，共同審查通用汽車 2021 年第四季度和日曆年的財務業績。我們的電話會議材料已於今天下午早些時候發布，可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上查閱。我們也通過網絡廣播廣播這個電話。

I'm joined today by GM's Chair and CEO, Mary Barra; GM's CFO, Paul Jacobson; GM Financial's CEO, Dan Berce; and Cruise Co-Founder, Kyle Vogt. Kyle will be available to speak about Cruise's exciting progress in the Q&A portion of the call.

今天，通用汽車的主席兼首席執行官瑪麗·巴拉 (Mary Barra) 加入了我的行列；通用汽車的首席財務官保羅·雅各布森； GM Financial 的首席執行官 Dan Berce；和 Cruise 的聯合創始人 Kyle Vogt。凱爾將在電話的問答部分談論克魯斯令人興奮的進展。

Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set. The content of our call will be governed by this language.

在我們開始之前，我想請您注意圖表集第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。我們的通話內容將受此語言約束。

We'll now turn the call over to Mary.

我們現在將把電話轉給瑪麗。

Thanks, Rocky, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Before we get into our 2021 results and 2022 outlook, I want to start with some exciting news from Cruise, which is one of our most significant growth opportunities. Kyle, Dan Kan, Gil West and the entire Cruise team are doing great work, and they just delivered a key milestone on the drive to commercialization -- to commercialize Cruise rideshare service.

謝謝，洛基，大家下午好。感謝您加入我們。在我們討論 2021 年業績和 2022 年展望之前，我想先從 Cruise 的一些令人振奮的消息開始，這是我們最重要的增長機會之一。 Kyle、Dan Kan、Gil West 和整個 Cruise 團隊都在做著出色的工作，他們剛剛交付了推動商業化的關鍵里程碑——將 Cruise 拼車服務商業化。

As Kyle has shared, Cruise team members have been taking fully driverless rides in San Francisco since November to demonstrate and refine the software and hardware ecosystem we have created together. In fact, they have logged over 20,000 miles and completed more than 600 trips. I rode in a driverless Cruise a couple of weeks ago, and I can tell you it was the highlight of my career as an engineer and as the leader of General Motors. The ride is smooth and confident. It's like having an experience and attentive driver behind the wheel.

正如 Kyle 所分享的，Cruise 團隊成員自 11 月以來一直在舊金山進行完全無人駕駛的遊樂設施，以展示和完善我們共同創建的軟件和硬件生態系統。事實上，他們已經記錄了超過 20,000 英里並完成了 600 多次旅行。幾週前，我乘坐無人駕駛巡航，我可以告訴你，這是我作為工程師和通用汽車公司領導者職業生涯的亮點。騎行平穩而自信。這就像在方向盤後面有一位經驗豐富且細心的司機。

Now as Cruise announced this morning, it is inviting members of the public to sign up for their own driverless rides through a waitlist on the Cruise website. This is the first truly driverless ride-hail service offered to members of the public in a dense urban environment. To maximize its learnings, Cruise will prioritize use cases that are a natural fit for autonomous ridesharing.

現在，正如 Cruise 今天早上宣布的那樣，它正在邀請公眾通過 Cruise 網站上的候補名單註冊他們自己的無人駕駛遊樂設施。這是第一個在密集的城市環境中向公眾提供的真正無人駕駛的叫車服務。為了最大限度地學習，Cruise 將優先考慮自然適合自動駕駛共享的用例。

This major milestone brings Cruise even closer to offering its first paid rides and generating $50 billion in annual revenue by the end of the decade. It also means that the SoftBank Vision Fund will invest, as planned, another $1.35 billion in Cruise. This is another strong vote of confidence in the Cruise team, its technology and the services it's creating.

這一重要里程碑使 Cruise 更接近於提供其首次付費乘車服務，並在本世紀末創造 500 億美元的年收入。這也意味著軟銀願景基金將按計劃再向 Cruise 投資 13.5 億美元。這是對 Cruise 團隊、其技術和所創造的服務的又一次強烈信任投票。

Additionally, Cruise continues to advance the strong relationship it has established with Walmart, where the team is making progress on driverless deliveries of groceries to customers every day. With this incremental investment and the investments from General Motors in companies like Honda, Microsoft and Walmart, Cruise is very well capitalized to scale its business when the Origin production comes online at Factory ZERO late this year. So Kyle, congrats.

此外，Cruise 繼續推進與沃爾瑪建立的牢固關係，該團隊每天都在向客戶提供無人駕駛雜貨方面取得進展。有了這筆增量投資以及通用汽車對本田、微軟和沃爾瑪等公司的投資，Cruise 資本充足，可以在今年年底零工廠上線 Origin 生產時擴大業務規模。所以凱爾，恭喜。

Now I want to turn to the significant investments we are making to expand both our battery cell and EV assembly capacity. We believe our strategy to scale a common Ultium Cell, component set and platform will create significant long-term value for all GM stakeholders. We also recognize that we need to launch more EVs faster. So that's exactly what we are going to do.

現在我想談談我們為擴大電池和電動汽車組裝能力而進行的重大投資。我們相信，我們擴展通用 Ultium 電池、組件集和平台的戰略將為所有 GM 利益相關者創造重要的長期價值。我們還認識到，我們需要更快地推出更多電動汽車。所以這正是我們要做的。

As you know, the GMC HUMMER EV is already in the market. Cadillac LYRIQ deliveries begin in less than 60 days, and additional BrightDrop EV600 production begins at CAMI late this year, where we'll launch with an annual capacity of 30,000 units and the ability to nearly double production by mid-decade. The Chevrolet Silverado EV launches next spring, and the Chevrolet Equinox and Blazer EVs will also reach the market in 2023. We have the teams working to accelerate the volume curves for all of these launches and to resume both EV and EUV production as soon as possible. And we have set a target to deliver 400,000 EVs in North America over the course of 2022 and 2023.

如您所知，GMC HUMMER EV 已經上市。凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 不到 60 天就開始交付，今年晚些時候在 CAMI 開始額外生產 BrightDrop EV600，我們將以 30,000 輛的年產能推出，到十年中期產量幾乎翻番。雪佛蘭 Silverado EV 將於明年春天推出，雪佛蘭 Equinox 和 Blazer EV 也將於 2023 年上市。我們的團隊正在努力加快所有這些發布的產量曲線，並儘快恢復 EV 和 EUV 的生產.我們設定了在 2022 年和 2023 年期間在北美交付 400,000 輛電動汽車的目標。

As you know, we have also announced additional battery cell and assembly capacity investments in Michigan that will give us more than 1 million units of EV capacity in North America by the end of 2025, and this includes 600,000 full-size trucks. This is in addition to more than 1 million units of EV capacity in China over the same time frame. And I can tell you right now, 1 million units in North America won't be enough to meet the steep inflection in demand that we expect starting mid-decade for our EVs. That's why we will continue to convert ICE capacity to EVs and plan to invest in a third EV truck plant. We are formulating plans for the truck plant right now, and we will share more as we work through the details.

如您所知，我們還宣佈在密歇根州進行額外的電池和組裝產能投資，到 2025 年底，這將使我們在北美擁有超過 100 萬輛電動汽車產能，其中包括 600,000 輛全尺寸卡車。同期中國電動汽車產能超過 100 萬輛。我現在可以告訴你，北美的 100 萬輛將不足以滿足我們預計從 10 年中期開始對電動汽車的需求急劇變化。這就是為什麼我們將繼續將內燃機產能轉換為電動汽車，併計劃投資第三家電動卡車工廠。我們現在正在製定卡車工廠的計劃，我們將在處理細節時分享更多信息。

Importantly, battery cells will not be a constraint to our long-term EV growth. Our Ultium cell JVs in Ohio and Tennessee come online in 2022 and 2023, respectively. And we will add capacity as demand grows. Our Ohio plant will launch with 7-day operations, adding 10% capacity and 200 jobs. Cell production in Michigan is scheduled to begin in late 2024. And I'm sharing today that we will announce the location of our fourth U.S. cell plant in the first half of this year. Together, these plants will support GM's EV volume growth and supply our customers in the rail, trucking, aerospace and marine industries.

重要的是，電池不會成為我們長期電動汽車增長的製約因素。我們在俄亥俄州和田納西州的 Ultium 電池合資企業分別於 2022 年和 2023 年上線。隨著需求的增長，我們將增加容量。我們的俄亥俄工廠將啟動 7 天的運營，增加 10% 的產能和 200 個工作崗位。密歇根州的電池生產計劃於 2024 年底開始。我今天要分享的是，我們將在今年上半年宣布我們在美國的第四家電池工廠的位置。這些工廠將共同支持通用汽車的電動汽車銷量增長，並為我們在鐵路、卡車運輸、航空航天和海洋行業的客戶提供服務。

Equally important for our EV strategy for North America is that it is backed by a strong, more sustainable, North American-focused supply chain that includes lithium, rare earth material, permanent magnets, cathode active material, silicon carbide, motor stators and more. To deliver this acceleration, we are pulling ahead significant investment into the 2022 to 2025 time frame, and we will share more details as we further refine our plans.

對於我們的北美電動汽車戰略同樣重要的是，它得到了強大、更可持續、以北美為重點的供應鏈的支持，其中包括鋰、稀土材料、永磁體、陰極活性材料、碳化矽、電機定子等。為了實現這種加速，我們將在 2022 年至 2025 年的時間框架內進行大量投資，我們將在進一步完善我們的計劃時分享更多細節。

Growing customer demand for the first wave of Ultium products strongly supports these investments. We already have more than 59,000 reservations for the GMC HUMMER EV pickup and SUV. Not surprisingly, some of the first owners are very prominent figures in the sports and entertainment industries, and their initial feedback has been just incredible. They expected a super truck, and they got one.

客戶對第一波 Ultium 產品的需求不斷增長，有力地支持了這些投資。我們已經有超過 59,000 輛 GMC HUMMER EV 皮卡和 SUV 的預訂。毫不奇怪，一些最初的所有者是體育和娛樂行業的傑出人物，他們最初的反饋令人難以置信。他們期待一輛超級卡車，他們得到了一輛。

Our next electric pickup will be the Chevrolet Silverado EV. More than 110,000 Silverado EVs are reserved so far, including reservations from more than 240 fleet operators, and the numbers keep growing every day.

我們的下一款電動皮卡將是雪佛蘭 Silverado EV。迄今為止，已預訂了超過 110,000 輛 Silverado 電動汽車，其中包括來自 240 多家車隊運營商的預訂，而且這一數字每天都在增長。

Some of the world's largest fleet customers, including FedEx, Verizon, Merchants Fleet and Walmart, are adopting BrightDrop vehicles and their technology. All told, we have more than 25,000 production reservations for BrightDrop cargo vans.

一些世界上最大的車隊客戶，包括 FedEx、Verizon、Merchants Fleet 和 Walmart，正在採用 BrightDrop 車輛及其技術。總而言之，我們有超過 25,000 輛 BrightDrop 貨車的生產預訂。

And customer interest in the Cadillac LYRIQ is growing so quickly that we'll forgo a new round of reservations and begin taking customer orders soon after the Debut Edition launches in March.

客戶對凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 的興趣增長如此之快，以至於我們將放棄新一輪的預訂，並在 3 月首次亮相後不久開始接受客戶訂單。

One of our most highly anticipated reveals this year will be the Chevrolet Equinox EV, which we previewed in January. The Verge named it the best electric car of CES, saying, "There's a perception that electric vehicles are luxury items. So when General Motors said the Equinox would come with a $30,000 sticker price, it's something worth noting."

今年我們最受期待的展示之一將是雪佛蘭Equinox EV，我們在一月份進行了預覽。 The Verge 將其命名為 CES 最佳電動汽車，並表示：“人們認為電動汽車是奢侈品。因此，當通用汽車錶示 Equinox 的標價為 30,000 美元時，這是值得注意的。”

The efficiencies created by the Ultium platform are a key reason why we will be able to deliver truly affordable EVs like the Equinox. Affordable EVs are part of the market that start-ups aren't targeting, but they are key to driving mass adoption of EVs, which is a national and a global priority. That's why we plan to follow the Equinox with an even more affordable EV.

Ultium 平台創造的效率是我們能夠提供像 Equinox 這樣真正負擔得起的電動汽車的關鍵原因。負擔得起的電動汽車是初創企業不瞄準的市場的一部分，但它們是推動電動汽車大規模採用的關鍵，這是國家和全球的優先事項。這就是為什麼我們計劃在 Equinox 之後推出更實惠的電動汽車。

Now let's shift and talk a little bit about our other GM growth platforms. Throughout the year, you will see the expansion of advanced vehicle technologies, new shopping tools and continued progress at our new business start-ups. This spring, we will launch redesigns of the Chevrolet Silverado and the GMC Sierra 1500 pickups and offer them with Super Cruise with expanded capabilities that include lane change on demand and hands-free trailering. These are firsts for the segment.

現在讓我們換個角度談談我們的其他通用汽車增長平台。在這一年中，您將看到先進車輛技術的擴展、新的購物工具以及我們新創業公司的持續進步。今年春天，我們將重新設計雪佛蘭 Silverado 和 GMC Sierra 1500 皮卡，並為它們提供具有擴展功能的 Super Cruise，包括按需變道和免提拖車。這些是該細分市場的第一次。

In the same time frame, GM and our dealers will begin marketing CarBravo, our new used vehicle shopping service. This is truly a win-win. Our dealers will grow their business by offering customers online access to far more inventory than other services. In turn, we expect to drive incremental GM and GM Financial revenue by selling products like OnStar Insurance, OnStar Connected Services, accessories and financial services. It will also help support strong residual values for off-lease vehicles.

在同一時間框架內，通用汽車和我們的經銷商將開始營銷我們的新二手車購物服務 CarBravo。這真的是雙贏的。我們的經銷商將通過為客戶提供比其他服務更多的庫存在線訪問來發展他們的業務。反過來，我們希望通過銷售 OnStar 保險、OnStar Connected Services、配件和金融服務等產品來推動 GM 和 GM Financial 收入的增長。它還將有助於支持停租車輛的強勁剩餘價值。

Then next year, we'll roll out Ultifi, a new end-to-end software platform for EVs, AVs and ICE vehicles that will have even more sweeping over-the-air capabilities than we have today. This includes the ability to backcast features to the Cadillac LYRIQ. Ultifi will be the foundation for new GM developed and approved third-party apps, in-car subscriptions and other connected services that enhance the customer experience and expand our revenue through the life of each vehicle.

然後明年，我們將推出 Ultifi，這是一個新的端到端軟件平台，適用於 EV、AV 和 ICE 車輛，其無線功能將比我們今天擁有的更廣泛。這包括將功能回溯到凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 的能力。 Ultifi 將成為通用汽車新開發和批准的第三方應用程序、車載訂閱和其他互聯服務的基礎，這些服務將在每輛車的使用壽命內提升客戶體驗並增加我們的收入。

We can and we will keep up our aggressive pace backed by strong results. We expect to follow our record EBIT-adjusted earnings in 2021 with another year of record or near-record results in 2022 while investing significantly more year-over-year to accelerate our growth. Paul will share more details on our results and guidance in his remarks.

我們可以而且我們將在強勁業績的支持下保持積極的步伐。我們預計 2021 年的 EBIT 調整後收益將在 2022 年再創紀錄或接近創紀錄的一年，同時同比投資顯著增加以加速我們的增長。保羅將在他的講話中分享更多關於我們的結果和指導的細節。

But before I turn the call over to him, I would like to discuss our capital allocation strategy. The prospect of continued strong earnings and free cash flow even as we invest for growth naturally raises questions about resuming a common stock dividend. As we move forward, we will consider all opportunities to return excess capital to shareholders, but we will not reinstate a dividend at this time. Our clear priority is to accelerate our EV plan and drive growth, and we want to maintain maximum flexibility to invest as opportunities arise across our growth platforms, including many of the accelerated plans I've outlined today. I think we've consistently demonstrated that we're a team that delivers on our commitments. That's more important now than ever with the incredible opportunities in front of us.

但在我把電話轉給他之前，我想討論一下我們的資本配置策略。即使我們為增長而投資，持續強勁的收益和自由現金流的前景自然會引發關於恢復普通股股息的問題。在我們前進的過程中，我們將考慮所有將多餘資本返還給股東的機會，但我們目前不會恢復股息。我們的明確優先事項是加速我們的電動汽車計劃並推動增長，我們希望在我們的增長平台出現機會時保持最大的投資靈活性，包括我今天概述的許多加速計劃。我認為我們一直在證明我們是一個能夠兌現承諾的團隊。現在比以往任何時候都更重要，因為我們面前有難以置信的機會。

So now I'm going to turn the call over to Paul, who will walk us through the quarter and our outlook. Then Paul, Dan Berce, Kyle Vogt and I will take your questions.

所以現在我要把電話轉給保羅，他將帶領我們了解這個季度和我們的前景。然後 Paul、Dan Berce、Kyle Vogt 和我將回答您的問題。

Thank you, Mary, and good afternoon, everyone. We sincerely appreciate you taking the time to join us. As Mary mentioned, the strong results last year, including record full year EBIT-adjusted and EBIT-adjusted margins, are a reflection of the hard work and execution from our team and the underlying strength of our business. We're seeing strong demand for our products, especially our trucks and SUVs, and we are striving again this year to produce as many of them as we can. I want to thank the entire GM team once more for the execution during this past year.

謝謝你，瑪麗，大家下午好。我們衷心感謝您抽出寶貴時間加入我們。正如瑪麗所說，去年的強勁業績，包括創紀錄的全年息稅前利潤調整和息稅前利潤調整後的利潤率，反映了我們團隊的辛勤工作和執行力以及我們業務的潛在實力。我們看到對我們產品的強勁需求，尤其是我們的卡車和 SUV，今年我們將再次努力生產盡可能多的產品。我要再次感謝整個通用汽車團隊在過去一年中的執行。

The cash that we generate today is funding the transformation of GM in pursuit of the growth strategy we shared last year at our Investor Day. We see a path to doubling revenue by 2030 while expanding margins with significant opportunities in software, services and new businesses in electric and autonomous vehicles.

我們今天產生的現金正在為通用汽車的轉型提供資金，以實現我們去年在投資者日分享的增長戰略。我們認為，到 2030 年，收入將翻一番，同時在軟件、服務和電動汽車和自動駕駛汽車的新業務方面擁有重大機遇，從而擴大利潤率。

Now let's get into the results. While we face the well-publicized global semiconductor challenges and continued pressure from COVID protocols throughout the world, the GM team once again delivered tremendous results in 2021 through our production prioritization and work across our value chain. For the full year, we generated $127 billion in revenue, $14.3 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 11.3% EBIT-adjusted margin, $7.07 in EPS diluted adjusted and $2.6 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow. In the fourth quarter, we generated $34 billion in revenue, $2.8 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 8.5% EBIT-adjusted margin, $1.35 in EPS diluted adjusted and $6.4 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow. Free cash flow in the quarter was largely driven by working capital rewind as we were able to complete and wholesale over 80,000 vehicles that had previously been built without certain components as well as dividends from GM Financial.

現在讓我們進入結果。雖然我們面臨廣為人知的全球半導體挑戰和來自全球 COVID 協議的持續壓力，但通用汽車團隊通過我們的生產優先級和整個價值鏈的工作，在 2021 年再次取得了巨大的成果。全年，我們創造了 1270 億美元的收入，143 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，11.3% 的息稅前利潤，7.07 美元的調整後每股收益和 26 億美元的調整後汽車自由現金流。第四季度，我們創造了 340 億美元的收入，28 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，8.5% 的息稅前利潤，1.35 美元的調整後每股收益和 64 億美元的調整後汽車自由現金流。本季度的自由現金流主要是由營運資金回流推動的，因為我們能夠完成和批發超過 80,000 輛以前在沒有某些組件的情況下製造的汽車以及來自 GM Financial 的股息。

We saw improved semiconductor availability in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter, which enabled us to increase our wholesale sequentially while substantially reducing our inventory of vehicles built without certain components. And we expect ongoing semiconductor availability improvements throughout 2022. We also realized strong price and mix performance in North America through our production prioritization actions and our go-to-market strategy. Additionally, used vehicle prices and strong credit performance continued to drive record results at GM Financial.

與第三季度相比，我們看到第四季度的半導體供應量有所改善，這使我們能夠連續增加批發量，同時大幅減少不使用某些組件製造的車輛庫存。我們預計整個 2022 年半導體可用性將持續改善。我們還通過我們的生產優先級行動和進入市場的戰略在北美實現了強勁的價格和組合表現。此外，二手車價格和強勁的信貸表現繼續推動 GM Financial 取得創紀錄的業績。

So let's take a closer look at North America. In Q4, GM North America delivered EBIT-adjusted of $2.2 billion as we continue to see robust customer demand for our products and tight dealer inventory driving strong transaction prices. These results were somewhat better than our December updated guidance expectations as we saw continued volume and cost improvement. On a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter, we saw volume decreases and increased investments in growth, partially offset by pricing and mix. U.S. dealer inventories ended the year at around 200,000 units, of which only approximately 25% is grounded stock, resulting in continued high sales turns of around 10 days.

因此，讓我們仔細看看北美。第四季度，由於我們繼續看到客戶對我們產品的強勁需求以及經銷商庫存緊張推動交易價格強勁，通用汽車北美公司在調整後的息稅前利潤為 22 億美元。這些結果略好於我們 12 月更新的指導預期，因為我們看到持續的數量和成本改善。與去年同期相比，我們看到銷量下降和增長投資增加，部分被定價和組合所抵消。美國經銷商庫存年末約為 200,000 輛，其中僅約 25% 為停售庫存，導致持續 10 天左右的高銷售周轉。

Moving to GM International. In the fourth quarter, GMI EBIT adjusted was approximately $0.3 billion, relatively flat year-over-year. China equity income was $0.2 billion in the quarter with continued strong mix, stabilization in pricing and material cost performance, offset by semiconductor and commodity impact. As we referenced last quarter, our international business outside of China has made substantial progress on our path to sustainable profitability. GMI EBIT-adjusted, excluding China equity income, achieved profitability in the fourth quarter despite continued semiconductor pressure, and the Chevrolet brand has regained its retail market share leadership in South America.

搬到通用汽車國際。第四季度，調整後的 GMI EBIT 約為 3 億美元，與去年同期相比相對持平。本季度中國股票收入為 2 億美元，持續強勁的組合、穩定的定價和材料成本表現，被半導體和商品的影響所抵消。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們在中國以外的國際業務在實現可持續盈利的道路上取得了實質性進展。 GMI 調整後的息稅前利潤（不包括中國股票收入）在第四季度實現盈利，儘管半導體壓力持續存在，雪佛蘭品牌已重新獲得其在南美零售市場份額的領先地位。

A few comments on GM Financial and the Corp segment. GM Financial concluded another extremely strong year with Q4 EBT-adjusted of $1.2 billion with record full year EBT-adjusted of $5 billion. GM Financial paid an additional $1.7 billion dividend in Q4. That brings the total GM Financial dividends to $3.5 billion in 2021, equivalent to how much we paid for the company. Going forward, we expect GM Financial dividends to moderate as earnings normalize and we continue to grow the asset base. Corp EBIT-adjusted in Q4 was down year-over-year by about $0.5 billion driven by the nonrecurrence of mark-to-market gains recognized in Q4 2020.

關於通用汽車金融和公司部門的一些評論。 GM Financial 結束了又一個非常強勁的一年，第四季度調整後的 EBT 為 12 億美元，全年調整後的 EBT 為創紀錄的 50 億美元。通用汽車金融在第四季度額外支付了 17 億美元的股息。這使得 2021 年通用汽車財務的股息總額達到 35 億美元，相當於我們為公司支付的金額。展望未來，我們預計隨著盈利正常化和我們繼續擴大資產基礎，通用汽車財務公司的股息將放緩。由於 2020 年第四季度確認的按市值計價收益不再出現，第四季度調整後的企業息稅前利潤同比下降約 5 億美元。

Now turning to our outlook for 2022. Today, we see a stabilizing semiconductor environment and envision wholesale getting to a normalized run rate towards the beginning of the third quarter with a target of around 800,000 units in North America on a quarterly basis. We expect total company volume to increase 25% to 30% year-over-year, with the majority of the increase occurring in the second half of the year, primarily due to the production constraints in the second half of 2021. Sequentially, we expect the positive trend to continue with Q1 wholesale volumes up 20% to 25% versus Q4 2021.

現在轉向我們對 2022 年的展望。今天，我們看到一個穩定的半導體環境，並設想批發在第三季度初達到正常運行率，目標是在北美每季度生產約 800,000 台。我們預計公司總銷量將同比增長 25% 至 30%，其中大部分增長發生在下半年，主要是由於 2021 年下半年的生產限制。因此，我們預計與 2021 年第四季度相比，第一季度批發量將繼續保持積極趨勢，增長 20% 至 25%。

In 2022, we anticipate light industry sales of approximately 16 million units, dealer stock to remain tight and the dynamic where production is the gating factor for sales volumes continuing into 2022. As you think about the mix of this incremental volume, remember that in 2021, we largely protected our high-demand truck production. As a result, the incremental volume in 2022 will be mostly weighted towards small and midsized SUVs and sedan.

到 2022 年，我們預計輕工業銷量約為 1600 萬輛，經銷商庫存將保持緊張，而生產是決定銷量的關鍵因素將持續到 2022 年。當您考慮這一增量的組合時，請記住 2021 年，我們在很大程度上保護了我們高需求的卡車生產。因此，2022 年的增量銷量將主要集中在中小型 SUV 和轎車上。

Now let's turn to our expectations for growth investments and margins. We're at a very important stage in the growth and development of some of our key businesses, and we are taking the very intentional step of investing heavily into them to accelerate our expansion. Cruise expenses are expected to increase as they rapidly approach commercialization and hire around 500 additional employees, increasing their workforce by around 20% to advanced technology as well as accelerate the operational infrastructure to grow and expand. We also expect to see some wage rate pressure as we continue to attract top talent to the company.

現在讓我們轉向我們對增長投資和利潤率的預期。我們正處於一些關鍵業務的增長和發展的非常重要的階段，我們正在採取非常有意識的步驟，對它們進行大量投資以加速我們的擴張。隨著他們迅速接近商業化並僱用約 500 名額外員工，將他們的勞動力增加約 20% 以採用先進技術，並加速運營基礎設施的發展和擴張，預計郵輪費用將增加。隨著我們繼續為公司吸引頂尖人才，我們還預計會看到一些工資率壓力。

Corporate expenses are expected to increase by approximately $0.5 billion as we expand the BrightDrop business, including product development and manufacturing spend to prepare the CAMI facility for eLCV production later in the year, and expanding customer pilots for the EP1 electric card, which we expect will drive software and services recurring revenue opportunities.

隨著我們擴大 BrightDrop 業務，公司開支預計將增加約 5 億美元，包括產品開發和製造支出，為今年晚些時候生產 eLCV 的 CAMI 設施做好準備，以及擴大 EP1 電子卡的客戶試點，我們預計這將推動軟件和服務的經常性收入機會。

We're going to continue to roll out OnStar Insurance across the country. We're in 46 states today and expect to be in all 50 by the second quarter. We're going to develop new products at GM Defense and continue to incubate new ideas to drive incremental growth and value in the future. We're also expecting to invest another $1.5 billion in expenses to expand software development and further accelerate our EV portfolio, which includes close to $1 billion of incremental engineering and software-related development.

我們將繼續在全國推廣 OnStar 保險。我們今天在 46 個州，預計到第二季度將達到全部 50 個。我們將在 GM Defense 開發新產品，並繼續孵化新想法，以推動未來的增量增長和價值。我們還預計將再投資 15 億美元用於擴展軟件開發並進一步加速我們的電動汽車產品組合，其中包括近 10 億美元的增量工程和軟件相關開發。

These investments are building the foundation to grow and accelerate our AV, EV and software businesses as we aggressively launch approximately 20 EV products in North America and more than 30 EV products globally through 2025 and introduce Ultifi. These investments will also drive meaningful revenue growth starting in 2023, initially from EVs, BrightDrop and Cruise, but expanding the software and services as we launch Ultifi and grow other new business opportunities such as OnStar Insurance and GM Defense in the next few years.

隨著我們到 2025 年在北美積極推出約 20 種電動汽車產品和全球 30 多種電動汽車產品並推出 Ultifi，這些投資為發展和加速我們的 AV、EV 和軟件業務奠定了基礎。從 2023 年開始，這些投資還將推動收入顯著增長，最初來自電動汽車、BrightDrop 和 Cruise，但隨著我們推出 Ultifi 並在未來幾年內增加其他新商機，如 OnStar Insurance 和 GM Defense，將擴大軟件和服務。

We're now also expecting commodities and logistics cost pressure of $2.5 billion year-over-year, primarily weighted to the front half of 2022. From a nonoperating perspective, we expect a combined $1 billion year-over-year headwind from the nonrecurrence of mark-to-market gains we achieved in 2021 and a reduction in net pension income as we further de-risk the planned asset profile. I want to reiterate that despite all of this, we expect to generate 10% North America EBIT-adjusted margins in 2022, inclusive of the increased expenditures related to our growth investments and highlighting our ability to fund these initiatives through internally generated cash flow.

我們現在還預計商品和物流成本壓力將同比 25 億美元，主要影響到 2022 年上半年。從非經營性的角度來看，我們預計來自非經常性的同比逆風總計 10 億美元我們在 2021 年實現了按市值計價的收益，並且隨著我們進一步降低計劃資產組合的風險，養老金淨收入減少。我想重申，儘管如此，我們預計 2022 年北美調整後的 EBIT 利潤率將達到 10%，包括與我們的增長投資相關的支出增加，並強調我們有能力通過內部產生的現金流為這些舉措提供資金。

In China, we expect equity income from our joint ventures to exceed $1 billion and remain relatively flat year-over-year. We anticipate a modest increase in volume, which will be offset by a more normalized mix, competitive pricing environment and increased investments as we prepare to bring more EV products to market.

在中國，我們預計我們合資企業的股權收入將超過 10 億美元，並且同比保持相對平穩。我們預計銷量會適度增加，但隨著我們準備將更多電動汽車產品推向市場，這將被更正常化的組合、有競爭力的定價環境和增加的投資所抵消。

We expect GM Financial performance to be in the $3.5 billion to $4 billion range as we do not expect a repeat of some of the 2021 allowance releases, and we anticipate that credit performance in used vehicle prices will begin to moderate.

我們預計通用汽車的財務業績將在 35 億美元至 40 億美元之間，因為我們預計 2021 年的部分配額釋放不會重複，我們預計二手車價格的信貸表現將開始放緩。

Assuming continued steady demand for new vehicles, no significant new economic or supply chain challenges in 2022, we expect EBIT-adjusted in the $13 billion to $15 billion range, EPS diluted adjusted in the $6.25 to $7.25 range and adjusted automotive free cash flow in the $7 billion to $9 billion range. Adjusted automotive free cash flow will be driven by strong earnings and working capital rewind as volumes increase. We expect capital spend to be in the $9 billion to $10 billion range in 2022, including investments in our Ultium battery cell JVs, and expect similar levels of spending over the next several years.

假設新車需求持續穩定，2022 年沒有重大的新經濟或供應鏈挑戰，我們預計調整後的息稅前利潤在 130 億美元至 150 億美元之間，攤薄後每股收益調整在 6.25 美元至 7.25 美元之間，調整後的汽車自由現金流在70 億至 90 億美元不等。調整後的汽車自由現金流將受到強勁的收益和隨著銷量增加而回籠的營運資金的推動。我們預計 2022 年資本支出將在 90 億美元至 100 億美元之間，包括對 Ultium 電池合資企業的投資，並預計未來幾年的支出水平將相似。

In summary, we had a strong finish to the year, and our results are a reflection of the team's focus and execution in the face of a continued challenging environment. In 2022, we expect strong commercial performance, and we are aggressively reinvesting some of our short-term EBIT improvement to accelerate our EV, AV journey while still driving similar results to our record performance in 2021. This demonstrates the strength of our underlying business, the strength of our truck and SUV franchises, our industry-leading customer loyalty and world-class manufacturing and design capabilities. We will continue to leverage these competitive advantages as we vastly expand our battery cell and EV assembly capacity in North America to lead the industry.

總而言之，我們在這一年取得了出色的成績，我們的成績反映了團隊在持續充滿挑戰的環境中的專注和執行力。在 2022 年，我們預計會有強勁的商業表現，並且我們正在積極將我們的一些短期 EBIT 改善再投資，以加速我們的電動汽車、自動駕駛汽車之旅，同時仍將取得與 2021 年創紀錄業績相似的結果。這證明了我們基礎業務的實力，我們的卡車和 SUV 特許經營權、行業領先的客戶忠誠度以及世界一流的製造和設計能力。隨著我們在北美大幅擴大電池和電動汽車組裝能力以引領行業，我們將繼續利用這些競爭優勢。

This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的開場評論到此結束，我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Congratulations on these results and the outlook. I'll ask 2 questions. First, just a financial one for Mary and Paul. You guys have almost $22 billion of cash. Your U.S. pension is now about fully funded. You've got $40 billion of liquidity, and you've shown a lot of resiliency in different financial conditions and operating conditions and are talking about $7 billion to $9 billion of free cash next year. So that's going to lead to some speculation on where the -- these investments could be that you're contemplating instead of cash returns. So can you maybe talk about -- are there investments that you're thinking about that are large enough that would consume cash of that magnitude?

祝賀這些結果和前景。我會問2個問題。首先，只是瑪麗和保羅的財務問題。你們有將近220億美元的現金。您的美國退休金現在幾乎已全部到位。您擁有 400 億美元的流動性，並且在不同的財務狀況和運營條件下表現出很大的彈性，並且明年將有 70 億至 90 億美元的自由現金。所以這將導致一些猜測——這些投資可能是你正在考慮的，而不是現金回報。那麼您能否談談-您正在考慮的投資是否足夠大，可以消耗如此多的現金？

So Rod, thanks for the question. And as we look at it, we're going to follow the capital allocation framework that we're going to continue to invest in opportunities that allow us to generate returns -- return on invested capital of greater than 20%, maintain an investment-grade balance sheet and then return the balance to shareholders. We talked about a lot of pull ahead and acceleration to our EV strategy. And as we work through that, we will follow that. We'll look for those good investments, and then we'll follow the capital allocation framework. So I think in February, it's a little early to look at that, but we'll provide more guidance through the year on that.

所以羅德，謝謝你的問題。在我們看來，我們將遵循資本分配框架，我們將繼續投資於能夠產生回報的機會——投資資本回報率超過 20%，保持投資——分級資產負債表，然後將餘額返還給股東。我們談到了很多提前和加速我們的電動汽車戰略。當我們完成這個工作時，我們將遵循這一點。我們將尋找那些好的投資，然後我們將遵循資本配置框架。所以我認為在 2 月份，現在看這個還為時過早，但我們將在這一年提供更多的指導。

Okay. And I was hoping to ask a question of Kyle. So you're currently -- congratulations, by the way, on the milestones that you've achieved. And these operations look pretty impressive. Can you talk a little bit about what the operations look like in prime time? So during the day, more congested periods. And 2021 seems like it's kind of a step between R&D and commercialization. Can you maybe give us a little bit more of a sense of what commercial scale will look like and what kind of pace of expansion we should be thinking about? At one point, you were talking about, I think, a new city every 6 months, something along those lines. But any update on that?

好的。我希望能問凱爾一個問題。所以你現在——順便說一句，祝賀你所取得的里程碑。這些操作看起來非常令人印象深刻。你能談談黃金時段的運營情況嗎？所以在白天，更擁擠的時期。 2021 年似乎是研發和商業化之間的一步。您能否讓我們更多地了解一下商業規模會是什麼樣子，以及我們應該考慮什麼樣的擴張速度？有一次，你在談論，我認為，每 6 個月一個新城市，類似的東西。但是有什麼更新嗎？

Rod, thanks for the question. Yes, it has been a very eventful day for us and a really good 2021 as we enter early commercialization. Our approach to bringing driverless cars to dense urban environments has been a cautious and careful one. We're starting with limited hours of the day, limited geofence. And what we're looking to do is confirm that the performance and the functionality of our system matches expectations and also that we give the communities where we're operating a little bit of time to acclimate, especially San Francisco, which is the first one -- first dense urban environment that's ever experienced this.

羅德，謝謝你的提問。是的，這對我們來說是非常多事的一天，也是非常好的 2021 年，因為我們進入了早期商業化階段。我們將無人駕駛汽車引入密集的城市環境的方法一直是謹慎而謹慎的。我們從一天中有限的時間、有限的地理圍欄開始。我們要做的是確認我們系統的性能和功能符合預期，並且我們給我們運營所在的社區一點時間來適應環境，尤其是舊金山，這是第一個——第一個經歷過這種情況的密集城市環境。

So we're going slowly and cautiously. But as we see things click and evidence that performance is meeting expectations, the focus becomes exactly what you mentioned, which is how quickly can we expand this to cover larger service area, more hours, serve more customers in San Francisco but then cities beyond that. And so we've been developing the foundational technologies to do those expansions in the background, and we've learned a lot by our operation in other cities like Arizona -- or sorry, in Arizona and in Michigan. So we have a pretty good idea of what's around the corner, but we're gated by safety, and we're just in the very early days. So it's hard to know our exact rate of expansion.

所以我們要緩慢而謹慎地進行。但是，當我們看到事情點擊並證明性能達到預期時，重點就變成了您提到的內容，即我們能以多快的速度將其擴展到更大的服務區域、更多時間、為舊金山的更多客戶提供服務，然後是其他城市.因此，我們一直在開發基礎技術以在後台進行這些擴展，並且通過我們在亞利桑那州等其他城市的運營，我們學到了很多東西——或者對不起，在亞利桑那州和密歇根州。所以我們對即將發生的事情有一個很好的了解，但我們受到安全的限制，而且我們還處於早期階段。所以很難知道我們確切的擴張速度。

Our next question comes from the line of John Murphy from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Just a first question, it's just on the core business. When we think about the 25% to 30% increase in wholesale, I imagine that mimics production. I'm just curious, as you think about that in the context of a 16 million unit SAR, it seems like there will be some inventory build, but not a lot. So if you wind that together with CarBravo, it does seem like you're pushing to keep ATPs high, mix relatively high and maybe transition some of your entry-level buyers or entry-level product into the used car market, which [supports this] more structurally going forward. It just seems like you're getting a very good circular reference, keeping a lid on inventory and then winding it up with CarBravo.

只是第一個問題，它只是關於核心業務。當我們想到批發量增長 25% 到 30% 時，我想這模仿了生產。我只是好奇，當您考慮在 1600 萬單位 SAR 的背景下，似乎會有一些庫存增加，但不會很多。因此，如果您將其與 CarBravo 結合起來，您似乎確實在推動保持較高的 ATP，混合相對較高，並可能將您的一些入門級買家或入門級產品轉移到二手車市場，[支持這一點] 在結構上更進一步。看起來你得到了一個很好的循環參考，保留了庫存，然後用 CarBravo 把它收起來。

I mean what is the real opportunity here on CarBravo? And then ultimately, what could it mean for sort of this inventory management on the new vehicle side? It just seems like it's a very intertwined, very positive story.

我的意思是 CarBravo 的真正機會是什麼？然後最終，對於新車方面的這種庫存管理意味著什麼？這似乎是一個非常交織，非常積極的故事。

Yes. John, thanks for the question. What I would say is that for 2022, it's largely more of a function of what we continue to believe is large pent-up demand for new vehicles that hasn't been met in 2021 because of some of the production challenges. Certainly, what we saw as we were able to complete those vehicles, there was a little bit more going through the system of production. And as we talked about in the prepared remarks, those vehicles continue to sell very, very rapidly. So despite the production increases we saw in Q4, we're still not really building inventory that much. And I think that's going to probably continue throughout the year with largely showing up in transit rather than on lot. That's really on the consumer, and I think that's the short term.

是的。約翰，謝謝你的問題。我想說的是，對於 2022 年，這在很大程度上更多是因為我們仍然認為，由於一些生產挑戰，2021 年尚未滿足的對新車的大量被壓抑的需求。當然，當我們能夠完成這些車輛時，我們看到的是，生產系統還有更多工作要做。正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，這些車輛繼續非常非常迅速地銷售。因此，儘管我們在第四季度看到產量增加，但我們仍然沒有真正建立那麼多庫存。而且我認為這可能會持續一整年，主要是在運輸過程中而不是在很多地方出現。這真的取決於消費者，我認為這是短期的。

When you think about CarBravo, I would think about it in terms of the volume and the access to inventory that we have through GM Financial, through the dealer network. It really is unprecedented level that gives customers much, much better choice and variety across the country. And we can do this in a coordinated fashion largely because of where we are with vehicles coming off lease, the GM Financial inventory across the board. So we actually see this as a really, really strong opportunity in and of itself to expand the customer relationship and the entire sort of universe of the customer that we're working through and we talked about at Investor Day.

當您想到 CarBravo 時，我會從數量和我們通過 GM Financial 和經銷商網絡獲得的庫存方面來考慮它。這確實是前所未有的水平，為全國各地的客戶提供了更多、更好的選擇和多樣性。我們可以以協調的方式做到這一點，主要是因為我們在車輛到期的情況下，通用汽車金融的全面庫存。因此，我們實際上認為這本身就是一個非常非常強大的機會，可以擴展客戶關係以及我們正在努力解決的整個客戶領域，我們在投資者日談到了這一點。

Okay. And then just to follow up on that. I mean it seems that you're tightening up and growing the core to drive more profits to fund the future. This Cruise news today -- and I'll sort of add my congratulations, too, on that to everybody on the team. As you grow in San Francisco and then repopulate the strategy in other markets, I mean, how do we think about the fleet and the capital required there to kind of follow up on Rod's question? I mean could there be a huge call on capital that could actually have very good returns? And what is the earnings potential in that $50 billion? I got to mention the margin is much higher than the core business at 10%. So I mean how should we think about those earnings in 2030? So capital requirement, will you own the fleet and where the earnings go.

好的。然後只是跟進。我的意思是，您似乎正在收緊和發展核心，以推動更多利潤為未來提供資金。今天的克魯斯新聞——我也將向團隊中的每個人表示祝賀。隨著您在舊金山的發展，然後在其他市場重新實施戰略，我的意思是，我們如何看待那裡的車隊和所需的資金來跟進羅德的問題？我的意思是，是否會有巨大的資本需求實際上可以獲得非常好的回報？這 500 億美元的盈利潛力是什麼？我不得不提到，利潤率遠高於核心業務的 10%。所以我的意思是，我們應該如何看待 2030 年的這些收入？因此，資本要求，您是否擁有車隊以及收益去向。

Yes. Keep in mind, John, that we announced last year that GM Financial has committed to a $5 billion line of credit to help finance the Origin. So I think when we look at capital for expansion as well as for the continued development, we're not seeing any constraints in that at all. Cruise is very well capitalized. They're very well prepared for the expansion phase as they continue to roll this out and achieve their milestones.

是的。請記住，約翰，我們去年宣布 GM Financial 已承諾提供 50 億美元的信貸額度來幫助資助 Origin。所以我認為，當我們著眼於擴張和持續發展的資本時，我們根本沒有看到任何限制。克魯斯資本充足。他們為擴展階段做好了充分的準備，因為他們將繼續推出並實現他們的里程碑。

I'm sorry. And the profitability potential on this? I mean it just seems like 10%, $5 billion is just an opening bid. It's probably a tremendous amount higher than that. I mean what do you roughly think in run rate of that profitability?

抱歉。以及這方面的盈利潛力？我的意思是，這似乎是 10%，50 億美元只是一個開價。它可能比這高得多。我的意思是你大致認為這種盈利能力的運行率是多少？

John, I think as we look, we see there's a huge first-mover opportunity to go and provide an exceptional customer experience. And so we're going to -- we do think there's tremendous margin potential in this business, but we also think growth is really important. So you'll see us balance that in the early days to really get a foothold -- a solid foothold in a leadership position. So down the road, we see tremendous profit, but we're going to really -- we're going to scale fast.

約翰，我認為在我們看來，我們看到有一個巨大的先行者機會去提供卓越的客戶體驗。所以我們要——我們確實認為這項業務有巨大的利潤潛力，但我們也認為增長真的很重要。所以你會看到我們在早期平衡了這一點，以便真正站穩腳跟——在領導職位上站穩腳跟。因此，在未來，我們會看到巨大的利潤，但我們真的會——我們會快速擴大規模。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joe Spak。

Appreciate the update on the Lordstown and Spring Hill Ultium Cells build-out and when those are starting. I was wondering if you could provide a little bit more color in terms of either from a run rate basis or maybe just an absolute basis and where you think each of those -- or how long it's going to take those facilities to get up to their stated capacity. And then maybe just a quick aside, if Lordstown is opening mid-22, where are you actually getting Ultium Cells for the HUMMER, the BrightDrop and the LYRIQ?

了解有關 Lordstown 和 Spring Hill Ultium Cells 擴建的更新以及這些更新何時開始。我想知道你是否可以提供更多的顏色，無論是從運行率基礎還是絕對基礎，以及你認為每一個的位置 - 或者這些設施需要多長時間才能達到他們的要求規定的能力。順便說一句，如果 Lordstown 將於 22 年中旬開業，那麼您實際上從哪裡獲得用於 HUMMER、BrightDrop 和 LYRIQ 的 Ultium 電池？

Today, we're getting those from LG. But as we look, we're going to ramp up those plants as quickly as we can with one coming online on '22, one on '23 and then one late '24 and one yet to be announced. So we're going to accelerate those as fast as we can. As I said in my prepared remarks, we've already found ways to add capacity from an operating perspective and efficiencies in the plant. So we're just going to keep going full out because we see the opportunity for substantial EV volume growth in this period of time.

今天，我們從 LG 那裡得到了這些。但正如我們所看到的，我們將盡快增加這些工廠，其中一個在 22 年上線，一個在 23 年上線，然後一個在 24 年末上線，還有一個尚未公佈。因此，我們將盡可能快地加快這些速度。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們已經找到了從運營角度和工廠效率增加產能的方法。因此，我們將繼續全力以赴，因為我們看到了這段時間內電動汽車銷量大幅增長的機會。

Okay. And then I guess following up on that, and I know you've mentioned in your remarks, Mary, you're not -- you don't really think you're constrained by your cell supply here. But it does seem like you have, at least over the next year or so, maybe an allocation decision of what programs those cells go to. So for instance, in '23, you have both the Silverado and Equinox. So how do you go about deciding that, whether it sort of goes towards potentially a more profitable vehicle or a segment where you see less competition and more potential white space?

好的。然後我想跟進這一點，我知道你在發言中提到過，瑪麗，你不是——你真的不認為你在這裡受到電池供應的限制。但至少在接下來的一年左右，您似乎確實有一個分配決定，這些單元將用於哪些程序。例如，在 23 年，您同時擁有 Silverado 和 Equinox。那麼，您如何決定這一點，無論是朝著潛在的更有利可圖的車輛還是您看到競爭較少和潛在空白更多的細分市場？

Well, I think we're working to expand our capability to accelerate all of those models. As I said, we're just seeing such strong demand, and that's caused the team to really go back and look and say, okay, let's double down and go faster from an acceleration perspective. Clearly, the cells will be something that we'll look to grow as well, one of the reasons why we're announcing the battery plant that we already did in Michigan, and we'll shortly be announcing the fourth battery plant as well as continuing to work with LG.

好吧，我認為我們正在努力擴展我們的能力以加速所有這些模型。正如我所說，我們只是看到如此強勁的需求，這導致團隊真的回過頭來看看並說，好吧，讓我們加倍努力，從加速的角度加快速度。顯然，電池也將是我們希望發展的東西，這也是我們宣布我們已經在密歇根州建成的電池廠的原因之一，我們很快將宣布第四家電池廠以及繼續與 LG 合作。

So we're focused right now not on trade-offs but on enabling as many as we can during this period of time. And you heard me say that between '22 and '23, we want to -- our plan is to have over 400,000 EVs into market in North America. And we're just going to keep working to improve that. And I have a lot of confidence in the GM team that when you give them a clear challenge, they rise to the occasion.

因此，我們現在關注的不是權衡取捨，而是在這段時間內盡可能多地啟用。你聽到我說，在 22 到 23 年間，我們想要——我們的計劃是在北美市場投放超過 400,000 輛電動汽車。我們將繼續努力改善這一點。我對通用汽車團隊充滿信心，當你給他們一個明確的挑戰時，他們就會迎難而上。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I had a question about the EV models and implied volume per SKU. I guess I'll ask it like this. If you were starting an EV company from scratch, would you launch 30 different models over a 3- or 4-year period? I understand why -- I guess I understand why GM with the brands in different regions and things attempted to do it. But if you had the alternative -- if you consider the alternative higher volume, maybe hundreds and hundreds of thousands of units per model but a small number of models.

我對 EV 型號和每個 SKU 的隱含銷量有疑問。我想我會這樣問。如果你從零開始創辦一家電動汽車公司，你會在 3 年或 4 年內推出 30 種不同的車型嗎？我明白為什麼——我想我明白為什麼通用汽車在不同地區的品牌和事情都試圖這樣做。但如果你有替代方案——如果你考慮替代方案更大的容量，每個型號可能有成百上千個單位，但型號很少。

So Adam, we're going to go for both. And from a General Motors perspective, I think when you look at how we've approached the technology and the investments we've made in Ultium and how we're looking at the portfolio, a full portfolio because again, if you look at -- and by the way, we think several of those models are going to be over 100,000 units or more than that as we do that. So I really would say, Adam, we're going for both.

所以亞當，我們要兩個都去。從通用汽車的角度來看，我認為當你看到我們如何處理技術和我們在 Ultium 所做的投資以及我們如何看待投資組合時，一個完整的投資組合，因為如果你再看一下 - - 順便說一句，我們認為其中一些型號的銷量將超過 100,000 台，甚至更多。所以我真的想說，亞當，我們兩個都去。

And it's one thing when you're looking at the market when it's 2%, 3%, 5%. We're looking by 2030 to be in the 40% to 50% adoption. And to do that, you've got to meet the customer where they're at. And that's why you look at the Equinox and how significant that can be, the more affordable EV that we're going to be doing that really gets into another very important part of the market. So you have to have the proper market coverage. Otherwise, the customer is going to have to make trade-offs.

當你看到 2%、3%、5% 的市場時，這是一回事。我們預計到 2030 年將達到 40% 到 50% 的採用率。要做到這一點，您必須與他們所在的客戶會面。這就是為什麼你會關注 Equinox 以及它的重要性，我們將要做的更實惠的電動汽車真正進入市場的另一個非常重要的部分。所以你必須有適當的市場覆蓋。否則，客戶將不得不做出取捨。

And because of GM's capability -- at General Motors, at any one point in time, we have almost 100 programs in flight, meaning in concept to being launched. That's the capability the GM team has. So we're moving with the speed of a start-up with, I think, industry-leading technology and a platform, but we're also then leveraging the capability that GM has to attract and gain share and grow because of the vehicles that we'll have that meet their needs.

並且由於通用汽車的能力——在通用汽車，在任何一個時間點，我們都有近 100 個計劃在進行中，這意味著從概念上到正在啟動。這就是通用汽車團隊的能力。因此，我認為，我們正以初創公司的速度前進，擁有行業領先的技術和平台，但我們也在利用通用汽車必須吸引、獲得份額和增長的能力，因為汽車我們將滿足他們的需求。

Just as a follow-up, how certain are you that the quality problems that you had with your battery partner have been resolved? Obviously, you're implying there's some improvement. But could you tell us, are all the issues behind you? Or are there still some issues that you're working through in real time?

作為後續，您對與電池合作夥伴的質量問題得到解決的把握有多大？顯然，你的意思是有一些改進。但是你能告訴我們，所有的問題都在你身後嗎？或者還有一些您正在實時解決的問題？

Sure. So Adam, we're already putting new battery packs into existing Bolt EVs and EUVs. We wouldn't be doing that if we didn't have confidence. The LG technical team and the GM team have worked together, we believe, as we said before, that it was 2 very rare manufacturing defects that caused the issue. And if you look at the low number of issues we had yet the extraordinary action that we took with recalling the entire population, that's our commitment to safety. And so we have found the issues. We've put a lot more robust processes into the manufacturing process and changed the way the processing is to make sure we don't have that issue.

當然。所以亞當，我們已經在現有的 Bolt EV 和 EUV 中安裝了新的電池組。如果我們沒有信心，我們就不會這樣做。 LG 技術團隊和 GM 團隊合作，我們相信，正如我們之前所說，是 2 個非常罕見的製造缺陷導致了這個問題。如果你看到我們在召回全體人口方面採取的非同尋常的行動的問題數量很少，那就是我們對安全的承諾。所以我們發現了問題。我們在製造過程中加入了更強大的流程，並改變了處理方式，以確保我們沒有這個問題。

I'd also note that, that was rich learnings that we had from our LG partners that have been incorporated into Ultium. So again, the experience that we've had of selling Bolt EVs for a while and Bolt EUVs, all of that learning is translated in -- and gives me great confidence in the quality of the Ultium platform and the packs that we're putting into the Bolt EVs and EUVs right now.

我還要指出，這是我們從 LG 合作夥伴那裡獲得的豐富經驗，這些經驗已納入 Ultium。再說一次，我們在一段時間內銷售 Bolt EV 和 Bolt EUV 的經驗，所有這些學習都被轉化為 - 讓我對 Ultium 平台和我們正在投入的包裝的質量充滿信心現在進入 Bolt EV 和 EUV。

Our next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自 Itay Michaeli 與 Citi 的對話。

Just 2 questions. Maybe first going back to AV for Mary and Kyle. And Mary, I think in the past, you referred to the opportunity in personal consumer AV as upside potential to your 2030 target. I was hoping you could update us on the vision you have for consumers of AV at GM as well as Cruise's role within that in the long run.

就2個問題。也許首先要為 Mary 和 Kyle 回到 AV。瑪麗，我認為過去，您曾將個人消費級 AV 的機會稱為實現 2030 年目標的上行潛力。我希望您能向我們介紹您對 GM 的 AV 消費者的願景以及 Cruise 在其中的長期作用。

Well, for right now, with the significant announcement that Cruise made today, we want the team like 99.9% focused on making sure that we seize the significant opportunity in rideshare and rideshare delivery. And we said most recently at the end of last year that we see -- and at CES that we see the opportunity for potentially as early as mid-decade to have personal autonomous vehicles, which is really an additive thing for Cruise because it puts more nodes on the network. It opens up another market. So we're very focused on rideshare and rideshare delivery. So this is something that we see potentially in mid-decade that we can make both businesses grow. So a huge opportunity.

好吧，就目前而言，隨著 Cruise 今天發布的重要公告，我們希望 99.9% 的團隊專注於確保我們抓住拼車和拼車交付的重要機會。我們最近在去年底說，我們看到了——在 CES 上，我們看到了可能早在 10 年中期擁有個人自動駕駛汽車的機會，這對 Cruise 來說確實是一個附加的事情，因為它可以提供更多網絡上的節點。它開闢了另一個市場。因此，我們非常專注於拼車和拼車交付。因此，這是我們在十年中期看到的潛在的東西，我們可以使這兩個業務都增長。所以這是一個巨大的機會。

I don't know, Kyle, if you want to add anything.

我不知道，凱爾，如果你想補充什麼。

Yes. Thanks, Mary. It's a natural fit, like retail AVs would increase the total volume of sensors and compute systems we're building. It's more vehicles that are on our common platforms that power these fleets of driverless cars. So it drives down the cost on a unit basis and really reinforces and bolsters the core robotaxi business. So we see it as really a win-win situation where it improves the economics of the robotaxi business but also enables a new market and the expansion of the positive impact from this technology.

是的。謝謝，瑪麗。這是天作之合，就像零售 AV 會增加我們正在構建的傳感器和計算系統的總量。為這些無人駕駛汽車車隊提供動力的是我們共同平台上的更多車輛。因此，它降低了單位成本，真正加強和支持了核心機器人出租車業務。因此，我們認為這確實是一個雙贏的局面，它提高了自動駕駛出租車業務的經濟性，同時也促成了一個新的市場，並擴大了這項技術的積極影響。

That's very, very helpful. Maybe a quick follow-up maybe for Paul. I'm hoping you could dimension the variable profit opportunity from the refreshed full-size pickup trucks, I think, coming in the spring, both in terms of maybe pricing opportunities with the new content as well as any opportunities with the upgraded electrical architecture.

這非常非常有幫助。也許對保羅來說是一個快速的跟進。我希望你能從更新的全尺寸皮卡車中衡量可變利潤機會，我認為，在春季到來時，無論是新內容的定價機會，還是升級電氣架構的任何機會。

Thanks, Itay. What I would say is that what we see right now and what we continue to see is a really, really strong consumer preference, especially as they're buying up on features and amenities. We see that across the board in the Denali brands, High Country brands, et cetera, that I think it's going to continue to pay big dividends for us as we roll out the new vehicles going forward. So without getting into specifics on vehicle margins and profitability, we're very excited about what that's going to bring. And we think that the consumer is going to be really, really positive around them.

謝謝，伊泰。我想說的是，我們現在看到的以及我們繼續看到的是非常非常強烈的消費者偏好，特別是當他們購買功能和便利設施時。我們在 Denali 品牌、High Country 品牌等中全面看到這一點，我認為隨著我們未來推出新車，它將繼續為我們帶來巨大的紅利。因此，在不詳細說明車輛利潤率和盈利能力的情況下，我們對這將帶來什麼感到非常興奮。我們認為消費者在他們周圍會非常非常積極。

Our next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Two questions, please. The first one, could you please describe the current supply chain environment? Any constraints still left on the chip availability? And in particular, I'd be interested to hear, what gives you confidence that you would have sufficient chip availability to produce 25% to 30% more vehicle in 2022 versus 2021? Admittedly, you were hit maybe a bit harder than other players. But obviously, this is a nice size announcement.

請教兩個問題。第一個，您能描述一下當前的供應鏈環境嗎？芯片可用性仍然存在任何限制嗎？特別是，我很想知道，是什麼讓您有信心在 2022 年比 2021 年有足夠的芯片可用性來多生產 25% 到 30% 的汽車？誠然，你受到的打擊可能比其他玩家更重一些。但顯然，這是一個不錯的尺寸公告。

Yes. Emmanuel, thanks for the question. What we're sharing is what we see with the work that we've done with all of the semiconductor manufacturers and our plans for this year. So of course -- and Paul said, if there's significant COVID disruptions or other natural disasters, that could have an impact. But we're pretty -- we're seeing -- definitely seeing improvement in first quarter over fourth quarter. We saw fourth quarter better than third quarter. And we really see with the plans we have in place now, by the time we get to third and fourth quarter, we're going to be really starting to see the semiconductor constraints diminish. So that's what we're working to achieve across all of our platforms and across the globe, frankly, with all of our suppliers, but that's our best current outlook that we're sharing.

是的。伊曼紐爾，謝謝你的提問。我們要分享的是我們與所有半導體製造商所做的工作以及我們今年的計劃所看到的。所以當然——保羅說，如果出現重大的 COVID 中斷或其他自然災害，那可能會產生影響。但我們很漂亮——我們看到了——肯定看到第一季度比第四季度有所改善。我們看到第四季度好於第三季度。我們真的看到了我們現在製定的計劃，到第三和第四季度時，我們將真正開始看到半導體限制減少。因此，坦率地說，這就是我們在所有平台和全球範圍內與我們所有供應商一起努力實現的目標，但這是我們正在分享的當前最佳前景。

Great. Just a quick aside on this, and then I have a second question on the Cruise. But just a clarification, the 25% to 30%, you're confident you could do this in North America since I think for China, I think Paul said that you were looking probably at more stable volume year-over-year?

偉大的。簡單說一下，然後我有關於 Cruise 的第二個問題。但只是澄清一下，25% 到 30%，你有信心在北美做到這一點，因為我認為對於中國，我認為 Paul 說你可能會看到比去年更穩定的銷量？

Emmanuel, 25% to 30% is a global production number. So there's some in the U.S., and there's some in the GM International as well.

Emmanuel, 25% 到 30% 是一個全球生產數字。所以美國有一些，通用汽車國際也有一些。

Understood. And then second question would be on Cruise. Mary, what are your current thoughts on optimal timing to bring this to capital markets, not just because of growing capital needs with the commercialization, which seems like you have that already well in place, but also as a way to potentially unlock some additional value for shareholders?

明白了。然後第二個問題是關於克魯斯的。瑪麗，您目前對將其引入資本市場的最佳時機有何看法，這不僅是因為隨著商業化而不斷增長的資本需求，這似乎您已經做好了準備，而且還作為一種可能釋放一些額外價值的方式為股東？

Yes. Emmanuel, I have always said, and it's the belief that's held by, I'd say, the Cruise Board and the GM Board, that we're going to do what's in the best interest of shareholders to create long-term value. And we do not see that a capital raise event is something that we need in the near term. We're -- Cruise is well capitalized and has strong financial support from its investors. GM is well funded. And so we don't really think we need to raise additional funds at this time. We also are committed to making sure we have competitive compensation packages at Cruise to attract and retain the best and the brightest talent to achieve the objectives and our growth initiatives here.

是的。伊曼紐爾，我一直說，我想說的是，郵輪董事會和通用汽車董事會所持有的信念是，我們將做符合股東最大利益的事情來創造長期價值。而且我們認為短期內不需要融資活動。我們是——Cruise 資本充足，並得到了投資者的強大財務支持。通用汽車資金充足。所以我們真的認為我們目前不需要籌集額外的資金。我們還致力於確保我們在 Cruise 擁有具有競爭力的薪酬方案，以吸引和留住最優秀和最聰明的人才，以實現我們的目標和增長計劃。

So my answer would be we're always going to look and do what's in the best interest. But as we look now, we're in the first chapter, and there's still so much that can be accomplished with a frictionless environment between Cruise and GM. And that's what we're really focused, is getting the technology out safely and then really growing at a pace where we can have leadership.

所以我的回答是，我們總是會尋找並做最符合其利益的事情。但正如我們現在所看到的，我們處於第一章，在克魯斯和通用汽車之間的無摩擦環境下，仍有很多事情可以完成。這就是我們真正關注的重點，就是安全地推出技術，然後真正以我們可以擁有領導力的速度增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

Maybe first, just a question for you, Paul, on the parameters of the guidance, EBIT guidance. I know you haven't articulated guidance by segment. There are some details there. But just given the comments for wholesale is up 25% to 30%, and you're reaffirming the 10% GM North America margin guide, even after factoring in the GMF decline and the higher spend for software and Cruise, I guess I'm wondering how you reconcile to having that lower half of the guidance because it seems like with that 10% North America margin guidance alone and that 25% to 30% volume growth, it pretty easily gets you to the upper half of the guidance. So in what scenario would you get to that lower half of the guide? Or is that just conservatism for the unknown unknowns?

保羅，也許首先，只是一個關於指導參數的問題，即息稅前利潤指導。我知道你還沒有按細分明確的指導。那裡有一些細節。但剛剛考慮到批發的評論上升了 25% 到 30%，而且你重申了 10% 的 GM 北美利潤率指南，即使在考慮到 GMF 下降以及軟件和 Cruise 的更高支出之後，我想我是想知道你是如何接受指導的下半部分的，因為看起來僅北美 10% 的利潤率指導和 25% 到 30% 的銷量增長，很容易讓你達到指導的上半部分。那麼在什麼情況下你會到達指南的下半部分？或者這只是對未知事物的保守主義？

Yes. Dan, thanks for the question. What I would say is this is very much a midpoint convention guide as we're thinking this. Obviously, we've expanded the range over prior years, which I think is a reflection of the volatility that we've seen in the place. I would be careful about extrapolating too much across kind of the profitability from the incremental vehicles. As we talked about and very intentional in the prepared remarks, a lot of that incremental volume is coming in at a lower contribution than what we've seen from the full-size trucks and SUVs going forward. That's just where the capacity is for us going forward.

是的。丹，謝謝你的問題。我想說的是，這在很大程度上是一個中點公約指南，因為我們正在考慮這一點。顯然，我們已經擴大了前幾年的範圍，我認為這反映了我們在這個地方看到的波動性。我會小心謹慎地從增量車輛中推斷出過多的盈利能力。正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的並且非常有意的那樣，與我們從全尺寸卡車和 SUV 未來看到的相比，很多增量銷量的貢獻要低。這正是我們前進的能力所在。

So what I would say is with a really robust consumer and a strong continued environment, we would probably trend towards the high end of that. But we have a lot of volatility. So to the extent that we see consumer weakness, we see more supply chain pressure, we see more disruption in the global logistics platform that impacts production, then we could be at the lower end of the number. But we wanted to give a range that was focused around the midpoint of our expectation as well as gave some comfort and some deference to the volatility that we see.

因此，我要說的是，在真正強勁的消費者和強勁的持續環境下，我們可能會趨向於高端。但是我們有很大的波動性。因此，如果我們看到消費者疲軟，我們看到更多供應鏈壓力，我們看到影響生產的全球物流平台出現更多中斷，那麼我們可能處於數字的低端。但我們想給出一個集中在我們預期中點附近的範圍，並對我們看到的波動性給予一些安慰和尊重。

Okay. That's helpful. And then second, Mary, maybe just a question on Ultium. I'd like to revisit the platform and the benefits. So if we go to EV Silverado, and I know you haven't unveiled the full set of specs, but one question which has come up in the investor community is that on some of the metrics relative to the other competition that's out there, it's not showing the type of advantage over your competitors that maybe some had anticipated.

好的。這很有幫助。其次，瑪麗，也許只是關於 Ultium 的一個問題。我想重新審視這個平台和好處。所以如果我們去 EV Silverado，我知道你還沒有公佈完整的規格，但投資者社區提出的一個問題是，在與其他競爭對手相關的一些指標上，它是沒有顯示出某些人可能預期的優於競爭對手的優勢類型。

So maybe we can just zoom out and think as you're launching the Ultium vehicles, what are the benefits that we're going to see versus your competitors? Is it just these are going to be more profitable vehicles? Is it that it's going to show up in other areas of battery efficiency? Is it that this can help unlock more range that others can't have? So what are the benefits of Ultium that we're going to start to see within the vehicle on more of a, call it, metric basis?

因此，也許我們可以縮小範圍並思考當您推出 Ultium 車輛時，與您的競爭對手相比，我們將看到哪些優勢？僅僅是這些將成為更有利可圖的車輛嗎？它會出現在電池效率的其他領域嗎？這是否可以幫助解鎖其他人無法擁有的更多範圍？那麼，我們將開始在車輛中更多地以公制為基礎看到 Ultium 的哪些優勢？

Yes. Well -- so I mean I think when we look at what Ultium is providing, first of all, it's going to give us scale. And we do think as we get the full portfolio of Ultium launch, we're going to see that scale, and it's going to give us an advantage from an overall margin perspective. But specifically for the Silverado EV, leveraging Ultium, we have longer range, 400-plus miles, faster charging, better towing capability.

是的。嗯——所以我的意思是，我認為當我們查看 Ultium 提供的內容時，首先，它將為我們提供規模。而且我們確實認為，隨著我們推出 Ultium 的完整產品組合，我們將看到這種規模，並且從整體利潤率的角度來看，它將為我們帶來優勢。但特別是對於 Silverado EV，利用 Ultium，我們擁有更長的續航里程、400 多英里、更快的充電速度和更好的牽引能力。

And I think you have to really look at this as opposed to -- I know there's been some focus on the miles per kilowatt hour, and we haven't put all the specs out, and it's going to get a very -- with a lot of features that you choose, I mean, we very carefully look to say, what are we going to provide for the customer? What does the customer want in this segment? What's important to them? And when you look at more range, faster charging, more -- this is more capability in the real world. Then when you look at the Ultium platform also, it gives us the opportunity to have a mid-gate, which gives much more flexibility, also being able to drive these trucks that people are going to see the benefit of a fully integrated battery pack and body structure, which gives us a mass advantage as well as, we think, superior vehicle dynamics.

而且我認為你必須真正看待這一點，而不是 - 我知道有一些關注每千瓦時的英里數，我們還沒有公佈所有規格，它會得到一個非常 - 有一個您選擇的很多功能，我的意思是，我們非常仔細地查看說，我們將為客戶提供什麼？客戶在這個細分市場中想要什麼？對他們來說什麼是重要的？當你看到更多的範圍，更快的充電，更多 - 這就是現實世界中的更多功能。然後，當您還查看 Ultium 平台時，它使我們有機會擁有一個中間門，這提供了更大的靈活性，還能夠駕駛這些卡車，人們將看到完全集成的電池組和車身結構，這為我們提供了質量優勢以及我們認為卓越的車輛動力。

So -- and then from an Ultium perspective, the other thing I would say as it relates to the truck portfolio, it's going to give us an opportunity to have a full truck portfolio faster. And as we've seen over the last couple of years, think about when we rolled out this current generation of trucks, we went high feature and high value. And we've grown our truck share capability. So we know that truck customer, there's some that want high value, some that want high feature. Ultium is going to give us the opportunity to again delight the customer with what they're specifically looking for as opposed to 1- or 2-point solutions off of a retrofitted platform.

所以 - 然後從 Ultium 的角度來看，我想說的另一件事與卡車產品組合有關，它將讓我們有機會更快地擁有完整的卡車產品組合。正如我們在過去幾年中所看到的那樣，想想當我們推出這一代卡車時，我們實現了高功能和高價值。我們已經發展了我們的卡車共享能力。所以我們知道卡車客戶，有些人想要高價值，有些人想要高功能。 Ultium 將讓我們有機會再次用他們特別尋找的東西來取悅客戶，而不是使用改造平台的 1 點或 2 點解決方案。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

I just wanted -- sorry, I hope it's not too basic. I just want to clarify on the Cruise announcement. People are able to sign up on the waitlist. Does that mean you're actually going to be able to do it soon? Or is it like today? Or is that like you're on a waitlist, and then in a couple of months, they're able to actually start taking rides? Any -- I just want to clarify that. It's kind of felt like it might have been today. And then I assume that means you have that sort of final license I think you talked about that you needed in San Francisco to deploy.

我只是想要——抱歉，我希望這不是太基本。我只是想澄清一下 Cruise 的公告。人們可以在候補名單上註冊。這是否意味著您實際上很快就能做到？還是像今天這樣？還是就像您在候補名單上一樣，然後在幾個月後，他們就可以真正開始乘車了？任何——我只是想澄清一下。感覺就像今天一樣。然後我假設這意味著您擁有我認為您談到的那種最終許可證，您需要在舊金山進行部署。

Colin, thanks for the question. So the waitlist is open. And based on the early demand we saw this morning, there's going to be a pretty long list pretty quickly. And we are starting small with a limited number of vehicles, limited hours. And so I don't think we're going to be able to get to everyone on that list in the next week or 2. And so it could be some time before people on the waitlist get to use the product. But we are -- we have already started carrying members of the public, and we're working through that waitlist now, adding new people every day. The other part of your question, I'm sorry?

科林，謝謝你的問題。所以候補名單是開放的。根據我們今天早上看到的早期需求，很快就會有一個很長的清單。我們從有限的車輛數量和有限的時間開始。因此，我認為我們無法在下一周或兩週內接觸到該列表中的每個人。因此，等待名單上的人們可能需要一段時間才能使用該產品。但我們是——我們已經開始運送公眾成員，我們現在正在處理那個候補名單，每天都會增加新的人。你問題的另一部分，對不起？

I think that answers it. I assume then you got that last license, I think you had mentioned.

我認為這回答了它。我假設您獲得了最後一個許可證，我想您已經提到過。

Yes. On the permit, we still have 5 out of the 6 necessary permits to operate a fared rideshare service. So as of today, all of the rides are free. And we filed the last -- the application for the last remaining permit in November last year, and we continue to work with the CPUC, California Public Utilities Commission, and answer questions they have about that application as they pop up. So stay tuned for more news on that.

是的。在許可證上，我們仍然有 6 個必要許可證中的 5 個來經營收費拼車服務。所以從今天開始，所有的遊樂設施都是免費的。我們在去年 11 月提交了最後一個剩餘許可證的申請，我們繼續與加州公共事業委員會 CPUC 合作，並在他們提出的有關該申請的問題時回答他們。因此，請繼續關注這方面的更多消息。

And then just -- I wanted to follow up on the 25% to 30% again, sorry. Other automakers are announcing cuts, so it's a bit surprising. I mean what kind of line of sight do you have? I mean is it just that you have maybe bigger buffer stock now, that you're maybe more able to swap out some of these chips? It just feels a little risky considering it seems you have been surprised over the last year that the supply wasn't there. And it seems like a very fragile semi-pipeline, it seems. Any sort of visibility there that you could provide?

然後只是 - 我想再次跟進 25% 到 30%，抱歉。其他汽車製造商正在宣布削減開支，所以這有點令人驚訝。我的意思是你有什麼樣的視線？我的意思是你現在可能有更大的緩衝庫存，你可能更有能力換掉其中一些芯片？考慮到您在去年似乎對供應不存在感到驚訝，這感覺有點冒險。它似乎是一個非常脆弱的半管道。您可以提供任何可見性嗎？

Well, again, as I said, we have been working closely with our supply base, with the Tier 1s as well as the semiconductors. We said last year that we were going to work deep into the tiered base and understand the capabilities. We were hit pretty hard last year third quarter with Malaysia because it just so happened that the facilities that have a lot of GM business happened to be hard hit by COVID, and you saw the losses we suffered there. So I think that's a bit of it. But this is our best estimate with the detailed work that we've been doing all last year and this year.

好吧，正如我所說，我們一直在與我們的供應基地、Tier 1 以及半導體密切合作。我們去年說過，我們將深入分層基礎並了解這些功能。去年第三季度，我們在馬來西亞受到了相當大的打擊，因為碰巧擁有大量通用汽車業務的設施恰好受到 COVID 的重創，你看到了我們在那裡遭受的損失。所以我認為這有點。但這是我們對去年和今年所做的詳細工作的最佳估計。

Now we still get surprises, and then we work to solve those issues either with an engineering solution or making trade-offs between vehicles. We believe we're going to continue to do that. But what we're sharing with you is based on everything we know today, based on the commitments of the supply base and barring some major COVID disruption or some major natural disaster supply chain disruption, this is what we think we're going to be able to do.

現在我們仍然得到驚喜，然後我們努力通過工程解決方案或在車輛之間進行權衡來解決這些問題。我們相信我們將繼續這樣做。但是，我們與您分享的是基於我們今天所知道的一切，基於供應基地的承諾，除非出現一些重大的 COVID 中斷或一些重大的自然災害供應鏈中斷，這就是我們認為我們將要成為的能夠做到。

And Colin, if I can just add to that. I think -- understand some of the skepticism, especially based on the volatility and where others are going forward. But this is why we wanted to add the point in there about where we see Q1. We're coming off of a lower baseline in the second half of the year, largely because of the impact that Mary mentioned. But the run rate that we've seen sequentially from 3Q to 4Q to 1Q is giving us a heightened level of confidence. It doesn't mean that things won't pop up. But certainly, what we're seeing in the very, very near term is giving us a little bit more confidence. And I think the general consensus is that things will be more stable in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year. So that's kind of how we're extrapolating our expectations.

還有科林，如果我可以補充的話。我認為 - 理解一些懷疑，特別是基於波動性和其他人的發展方向。但這就是為什麼我們想在其中添加關於我們看到 Q1 的位置的原因。我們在下半年擺脫了較低的基線，主要是因為瑪麗提到的影響。但我們從第三季度到第四季度再到第一季度連續看到的運行率給了我們更高的信心。這並不意味著事情不會彈出。但可以肯定的是，我們在非常非常近期內看到的情況正在給我們更多的信心。而且我認為普遍的共識是，下半年情況會比上半年更穩定。所以這就是我們如何推斷我們的期望。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Thanks for all the color on the 2022 outlook, including relative to both volume and pricing. I'm curious for your thoughts on mix in '22. So for example, as chip supply continues to hopefully normalize, does that mean you may produce more modestly priced or lower trim model vehicles, including for rental customers, et cetera? What's the right way to think about how much of the much richer mix has been supply-driven with automakers, including yourselves, opting to produce only higher-end vehicles, and so it could maybe unwind versus how much of the much richer mix is maybe more sustainable demand-driven, for example, with consumers increasingly demanding these high-end features? What do you think?

感謝您對 2022 年展望的所有顏色，包括相對於數量和價格。我很好奇你對 22 年混音的看法。因此，例如，隨著芯片供應有望繼續正常化，這是否意味著您可以生產價格更適中或內飾更低的車型，包括為租賃客戶等？考慮汽車製造商（包括你們自己）選擇只生產高端汽車的供應驅動的更豐富的組合中有多少是正確的方法，因此它可能會放鬆而不是更豐富的組合中有多少可能是更可持續的需求驅動，例如，隨著消費者對這些高端功能的要求越來越高？你怎麼認為？

Well, thanks for the question, Ryan. I think we continue to just see and have talked all through 2021 about the strength of the consumer and the strength of the new models, especially in the full-size trucks and SUVs and how customers were buying up for them. So that -- there's nothing that's changed underlying in the consumer from that standpoint. The comment that we made in the prepared remarks was largely a function of the increased volume because we were running full out on a lot of the full-size trucks and SUVs. There is some incremental production capabilities, but really a lot of the unmet production or underutilized production that was hit in '21 was in the crossover, smaller SUVs and sedans. So by definition, that's where a lot of the production increases and volume increases are going to be in 2022.

好吧，謝謝你的問題，瑞恩。我認為，到 2021 年，我們將繼續看到並談論消費者的實力和新車型的實力，尤其是在全尺寸卡車和 SUV 以及客戶如何購買它們。所以——從這個角度來看，消費者的內在根本沒有任何改變。我們在準備好的評論中發表的評論很大程度上是由於我們在很多全尺寸卡車和 SUV 上都用完了。有一些增量生產能力，但實際上很多未滿足的生產或 21 年未充分利用的生產是跨界車、小型 SUV 和轎車。因此，根據定義，這就是 2022 年大量產量和產量增加的地方。

I don't think that, that changes mix. We're going to see -- continue to watch that with the consumer going through 2022, and it's something that we can adjust on the fly as we see that going forward. But no reason to believe that the strength of the consumer is deteriorating from what we saw in 2021.

我不這麼認為，這改變了組合。我們將看到——隨著消費者在 2022 年的到來，我們將繼續觀察這一點，隨著我們看到這一點，我們可以隨時調整這一點。但沒有理由相信消費者的實力比我們在 2021 年看到的情況正在惡化。

And the only thing I'd add, Paul, is that when you look at the new full-size trucks, with the enhancements that we've made, and frankly, even offering some further up-level models, I think that's just another huge opportunity for us. So I think this is going to be a positive year for that. And again, we focus on those vehicles that we have no -- we're already running full out. So we have no capacity to make up, which kind of puts a little more color onto what Paul said about where the opportunity to add this year is.

保羅，我唯一要補充的是，當你看到新的全尺寸卡車時，我們已經做出了改進，坦率地說，甚至提供了一些更高級的模型，我認為這只是另一個對我們來說是巨大的機會。所以我認為這將是積極的一年。再一次，我們專注於那些我們沒有的車輛——我們已經用完了。所以我們沒有能力彌補，這給保羅所說的今年增加機會的地方增添了一點色彩。

Very helpful. And just lastly, maybe a related follow-up question on if there might now be a new normal that you see in terms of U.S. industry sales. We used to say that normalized U.S. demand was around $17 million. And sales did average around $17 million for a long time, but that was also when vehicles cost $30,000 or $35,000 versus now they're more like $40,000 or $45,000. So just curious if you have any updated thoughts on any new normal in terms of sales and pricing, et cetera.

很有幫助。最後，也許還有一個相關的後續問題，即您現在是否會看到美國行業銷售的新常態。我們過去常說，標準化的美國需求約為 1700 萬美元。很長一段時間內，平均銷售額確實在 1700 萬美元左右，但那也是當汽車價格為 30,000 美元或 35,000 美元時，而現在它們更像是 40,000 美元或 45,000 美元。所以只是好奇你是否對銷售和定價等方面的任何新常態有任何更新的想法。

I don't know if there's anything normal right now when you look at all of the challenges that the industry is still facing. As Paul said, we think we've got a large pent-up demand, especially for GM vehicles and strong full-size trucks coming out. We continue to see just incredibly strong demand for our full-size SUVs and midsize crossovers. So I think it's too early to declare normal when we're still impacted by the semiconductor shortage. There's still buying behavior as an outcome of COVID and some of the support that was provided. So I think it's going to take a little while before we declare normal.

當您查看該行業仍面臨的所有挑戰時，我不知道現在是否有正常現象。正如保羅所說，我們認為我們有很大的被壓抑的需求，特別是對於通用汽車和強勁的全尺寸卡車的問世。我們繼續看到對我們的全尺寸 SUV 和中型跨界車的強勁需求。因此，當我們仍受到半導體短缺的影響時，我認為現在宣布正常還為時過早。由於 COVID 和提供的一些支持，仍然存在購買行為。所以我認為在我們宣布正常之前需要一段時間。

For our last question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

我們的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布賴恩約翰遜。

It's Steven Hempel on for Brian. Just 2 questions here from us. In terms of the kind of consolidating the semiconductor, purchasing the 3 families and the codevelopment, I guess, where do we stand on that? And then what's the kind of most expected time frame when that could add to incremental chip supply?

布賴恩是史蒂文亨佩爾。我們這裡只有 2 個問題。至於整合半導體、收購3家、共同開發的方式，我想，我們的立場是什麼？那麼，在什麼時候可以增加芯片供應量呢？

That's a midterm type of solution. Clearly, it's full speed ahead of working with the partners that we announced and getting to the families. And so reducing complexity, which we think will allow us to secure supply in addition to the relationships that we're creating with these strategic partners. But that's a midterm solution, not a short-term solution.

這是一種中期解決方案。顯然，在與我們宣布的合作夥伴合作並接觸家庭之前，它是全速前進。因此降低了複雜性，我們認為除了與這些戰略合作夥伴建立的關係之外，這將使我們能夠確保供應。但這是一個中期解決方案，而不是短期解決方案。

Okay. And then I guess a somewhat related question. In terms of the long-term margin target laid out at the Capital Markets Day, 12% to 14% margins. It looks like as we go into [2022, there's] a decent amount of step-up in investment for some of these related businesses. I guess the move out to 2030, should we be expecting kind of a directional linear move towards that 12% to 14%? Or should we be expecting some years to be kind of flattish or even potentially down as we shift out of ICE into BEV and bring on new businesses?

好的。然後我猜一個有點相關的問題。就資本市場日制定的長期保證金目標而言，利潤率為 12% 至 14%。看起來，當我們進入 [2022 年時，對其中一些相關業務的投資有了相當大的提升。我猜到 2030 年，我們是否應該期待朝著 12% 到 14% 的方向線性移動？或者，隨著我們從 ICE 轉向 BEV 並帶來新業務，我們是否應該期望幾年會變得平淡甚至可能下降？

Steven, it's Paul. So what I would say is it's a little bit lumpy between now and then because if you think about the trajectory, the #1 priority and foundation that we're building is getting the EV fleet out there. So you're going to see a lot of the revenue growth really driven by EVs over the next few years. And as you get into the latter half of the decade and you've got the Ultifi platform out there and growing that foundation through electric vehicles, you're going to start to see what we think is going to be a pretty quick ramp-up in the software.

史蒂文，是保羅。所以我想說的是，從現在到那時，它有點顛簸，因為如果你考慮一下軌跡，我們正在建立的第一要務和基礎是讓電動汽車車隊在那裡。因此，您將在未來幾年看到電動汽車真正推動的大量收入增長。當你進入這個十年的後半段，你已經有了 Ultifi 平台並通過電動汽車發展了這個基礎，你將開始看到我們認為將是一個相當快速的增長在軟件中。

So the revenue growth is going to be a little bit more steady, especially as we look at what Cruise is doing going forward. The margin performance probably lags a little bit because some of the higher-margin revenue opportunities from software and the connected vehicles are going to be -- are going to come after we get that foundation built in the latter part of the decade.

因此，收入增長將更加穩定，尤其是當我們關注 Cruise 未來的發展方向時。利潤率表現可能會有些滯後，因為軟件和聯網汽車帶來的一些利潤率較高的收入機會將在我們在本世紀後期建立基礎之後出現。

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.

謝謝你。我現在想將電話轉給 Mary Barra，以聽取她的結束意見。

Thanks, Jordan, and thanks, everybody, for your questions. I want to close again by thanking the GM team broadly, including the GMF team, our union partners, our dealers and our suppliers. The work that they did together, seizing opportunities, addressing challenges is what allowed us to have this record performance. And we take that collaboration and problem solving, agility and resiliency into 2022. And we apply that to continuing to accelerate our EV transformation, the work in software, and of course, supporting our Cruise company as well.

謝謝喬丹，謝謝大家的提問。最後，我想再次感謝 GM 團隊，包括 GMF 團隊、我們的工會合作夥伴、我們的經銷商和我們的供應商。他們一起做的工作，抓住機遇，應對挑戰，使我們能夠取得如此創紀錄的業績。我們將這種協作和解決問題的能力、敏捷性和彈性帶到 2022 年。我們將其應用於繼續加速我們的電動汽車轉型、軟件工作，當然還有支持我們的 Cruise 公司。

So I couldn't be more excited about 2022 and what the year and how it can unfold. I hope you see and you see the clear sense of determination that we have, and we will move even faster to deliver on our commitments and achieve the growth that we know is right in front of us. So I want to assure you that we'll keep you updated every step of the way, but '22 is going to be an exciting year. Thank you.

所以我對 2022 年以及這一年以及它如何展開感到無比興奮。我希望你看到並且你看到我們所擁有的明確決心，我們將更快地兌現我們的承諾並實現我們所知道的就在我們面前的增長。因此，我想向您保證，我們會隨時為您提供最新信息，但 22 年將是激動人心的一年。謝謝你。

That concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for joining.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。