通用汽車 (GM) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Motors Company's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded Wednesday, August 4, 2021. I would now like to turn the conference over to Rocky Gupta, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

早上好，歡迎參加通用汽車公司 2021 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次電話會議將於 2021 年 8 月 4 日星期三錄製。我現在想將會議轉交給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Rocky Gupta。

Thanks, Tabitha. Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the second quarter of 2021. Our press release was issued this morning, and the conference call materials are available on the GM Investor Relations website. We are also broadcasting this call via webcast. I'm joined here today by Mary Barra, GM's Chairman and CEO; Paul Jacobson, GM's CFO; and Dan Berce, President of GM Financial.

謝謝，塔比莎。早上好，感謝您加入我們，共同審查通用汽車 2021 年第二季度的財務業績。我們的新聞稿於今天上午發布，電話會議材料可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上獲得。我們也通過網絡廣播廣播這個電話。今天，通用汽車董事長兼首席執行官瑪麗·巴拉 (Mary Barra) 加入了我的行列；通用汽車首席財務官 Paul Jacobson；和通用汽車金融總裁丹·伯斯。

As usual, before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set. The content of our call will be governed by this language. And now I will turn the call over to Mary Barra.

像往常一樣，在我們開始之前，我想請您注意圖表集第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。我們的通話內容將受此語言約束。現在我將把電話轉給 Mary Barra。

Thanks, Rocky, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. Today, Paul and I will provide some insights into our record results and then talk about our outlook for the second half.

謝謝，洛基，大家早上好。感謝您加入我們。今天，保羅和我將對我們的創紀錄業績提供一些見解，然後談談我們對下半年的展望。

As we announced earlier, we achieved EBIT adjusted of $4.1 billion in the second quarter and $8.5 billion in the first half, including charges for recalls, primarily the Bolt EV. I really want to thank our employees and the extended GM team, including our suppliers and our dealers, for helping us deliver such consistently strong results. Everyone continues to demonstrate remarkable resiliency and adaptability in a rapidly changing environment.

正如我們之前宣布的那樣，我們在第二季度實現了 41 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，在上半年實現了 85 億美元，包括召回費用，主要是 Bolt EV。我真的要感謝我們的員工和擴展的通用汽車團隊，包括我們的供應商和經銷商，幫助我們實現瞭如此持續的強勁業績。在瞬息萬變的環境中，每個人都繼續表現出非凡的彈性和適應能力。

In addition, our ROIC adjusted of 27.3% in the quarter significantly exceeded our target. This underlines how our strong returns enable us to reinvest in the future of this business. The reinvestment includes accelerated investments in our electric and autonomous strategy to build a future that is better for our customers and better for the environment, and we'll discuss this a bit more in a few minutes.

此外，我們在本季度調整後的投資回報率為 27.3%，大大超過了我們的目標。這突顯了我們強勁的回報如何使我們能夠對這項業務的未來進行再投資。再投資包括加快對我們的電動和自動駕駛戰略的投資，以建立一個對我們的客戶和環境都更好的未來，我們將在幾分鐘內進一步討論這個問題。

All-electric is an important point of distinction. Because of the performance, range, flexibility and scalability of our Ultium and Hydrotec platforms, including the work we're doing to continually drive cost reduction, we don't need to depend on partial solutions like hybrids and electrified ICE vehicles. Instead, we're primarily focused on investments that achieve the end solution of zero emissions more quickly.

全電動是一個重要的區別點。由於我們的 Ultium 和 Hydrotec 平台的性能、範圍、靈活性和可擴展性，包括我們為不斷降低成本所做的工作，我們不需要依賴混合動力和電動 ICE 車輛等部分解決方案。相反，我們主要專注於更快地實現零排放最終解決方案的投資。

Before we move on, I will share my perspective on our recall of the 2017 to '19 model year Bolt EVs and then the status of the semiconductor situation. So let's start with the Bolt. Across the company, we have made both product and workplace safety everyone's responsibility. Our focus is on prevention but also moving with a sense of urgency when problems do arise. When we learned of a potential of 2 new battery fires that were part of our previous recall population, we acted quickly.

在我們繼續之前，我將分享我對 2017 年至 19 年款 Bolt EV 的召回以及半導體形勢的看法。因此，讓我們從 Bolt 開始。在整個公司範圍內，我們已將產品安全和工作場所安全作為每個人的責任。我們的重點是預防，但在出現問題時也要以緊迫感行事。當我們得知可能發生 2 起新的電池起火事件時，這些電池屬於我們之前的召回人群的一部分，我們迅速採取了行動。

We did an investigation and our engineering analysis identified 2 rare manufacturing defects in some cells manufactured by our supplier in the '17 to '19 time frame, so we instituted a second recall with the overriding priority of doing the right thing. Because cells for 2020 and later vehicles were built using improved manufacturing processes, the recall does not impact newer Bolt EVs or EUVs. And since that recall, we have worked with our supplier and partner to make further process improvements.

我們進行了一項調查，我們的工程分析確定了我們的供應商在 17 到 19 年時間框架內製造的一些電池中存在 2 處罕見的製造缺陷，因此我們進行了第二次召回，首要任務是做正確的事。由於 2020 年及以後車輛的電池是使用改進的製造工藝製造的，因此召回不會影響較新的 Bolt EV 或 EUV。自那次召回以來，我們與供應商和合作夥伴合作，進一步改進流程。

Just as important, the recall doesn't impact the Ultium platform. It is a different battery system, and our joint venture plants that manufacture Ultium cells will follow rigorous GM quality processes.

同樣重要的是，此次召回不會影響 Ultium 平台。這是一個不同的電池系統，我們生產 Ultium 電池的合資工廠將遵循嚴格的 GM 質量流程。

As for semiconductors, the situation does remain fluid, and the supply chain continues to be impacted by events like what is happening right now with the COVID spike in Malaysia. While we informed our employees yesterday that some truck production will be impacted next week, even as we resume production at some crossover plants, we remain confident in our team's ability to continue to find creative solutions that minimize the impact on our highest-demand and capacity-constrained vehicles, including full-size trucks and SUVs.

至於半導體，情況確實仍然不穩定，供應鏈繼續受到事件的影響，比如馬來西亞新冠肺炎疫情激增。雖然我們昨天通知我們的員工，下週一些卡車生產將受到影響，即使我們在一些跨界工廠恢復生產，我們仍然相信我們的團隊有能力繼續尋找創造性的解決方案，以盡量減少對我們最高需求和產能的影響- 受限車輛，包括全尺寸卡車和 SUV。

We are raising our guidance for full year EBIT-adjusted to $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion. And we are being cautious because of the uncertainty due to the Delta variant and its potential impact on the supply chain. But we do believe that the combination of our safety protocols and the rising vaccination rates will help minimize disruptions, but we do have to note the situation does remain fluid.

我們將調整後的全年息稅前利潤預期提高至 115 億美元至 135 億美元。由於 Delta 變體的不確定性及其對供應鏈的潛在影響，我們持謹慎態度。但我們確實相信，我們的安全協議和不斷提高的疫苗接種率相結合將有助於最大限度地減少干擾，但我們確實必須注意，情況確實仍然不穩定。

We are also putting long-term solutions in place to derisk our supply chain. This includes collaborating with semiconductor manufacturers and continuing to enhance transparency throughout the entire semiconductor supply chain.

我們還制定了長期解決方案，以降低我們供應鏈的風險。這包括與半導體製造商合作，並繼續提高整個半導體供應鏈的透明度。

So now let's turn to growth. As I mentioned in my letter to shareholders, we are addressing the entire ecosystem to speed EV adoption and commercialization of self-driving technology at scale. We will offer a full range of vehicles and services that make EVs accessible to the largest possible customer base. We'll also create job opportunities for thousands of employees in our Ultium Cells joint venture. In addition, we will work to grow our businesses like BrightDrop, OnStar Insurance and other software and services, including subscriptions.

所以現在讓我們轉向增長。正如我在致股東的信中提到的那樣，我們正在解決整個生態系統，以加速電動汽車的採用和自動駕駛技術的大規模商業化。我們將提供全方位的車輛和服務，讓盡可能多的客戶群使用電動汽車。我們還將為 Ultium Cells 合資企業的數千名員工創造就業機會。此外，我們將努力發展我們的業務，如 BrightDrop、OnStar Insurance 和其他軟件和服務，包括訂閱。

The Cruise model for autonomous rideshare is another great example of an inclusive solution because it will make all-electric transportation more accessible and affordable. Delivering on our EV all-electric future requires a value change that is secure, sustainable, scalable and cost competitive. To do this, we are creating a diversified value chain of environmentally friendly and geographically diverse footprints through investments, strategic partnerships and supply agreements.

用於自動駕駛共享的 Cruise 模式是包容性解決方案的另一個很好的例子，因為它將使全電動交通更容易獲得和負擔得起。實現我們的電動汽車全電動未來需要安全、可持續、可擴展且具有成本競爭力的價值變革。為此，我們正在通過投資、戰略合作夥伴關係和供應協議來創建一個多元化的價值鏈，其中包括對環境友好且地域多元化的足跡。

For example, we are working with suppliers to develop new sources in the United States for lithium, a key battery cell component, and accelerate the adoption of extraction methods which have less of an impact on the environment. We're taking a similar approach across other critical minerals needed to support our EV future. And we're confident that our strategy will secure our supply in a sustainable way as we accelerate our transition to EVs.

例如，我們正在與供應商合作，在美國開發鋰這一關鍵電池組件的新來源，並加快採用對環境影響較小的提取方法。我們正在對支持我們的電動汽車未來所需的其他關鍵礦物採取類似的方法。我們相信，隨著我們加快向電動汽車的過渡，我們的戰略將以可持續的方式確保我們的供應。

We'll share more about these key topics and others, including battery cost and business opportunities that we're creating with software, at our investor event on October 6 and 7, which we hope will be in person because we are so looking forward to having you experience technologies like Watts to Freedom in the GMC HUMMER EV pickup, as well as Super Cruise, which we are constantly advancing its capabilities. Just last month, for example, we demonstrated the latest version of Super Cruise technology that will be featured on the Sierra 1500 Denali late in the 2022 model year. It will include the ability to trailer while driving hands-free.

我們將在 10 月 6 日至 7 日的投資者活動中分享更多關於這些關鍵主題和其他主題的信息，包括電池成本和我們使用軟件創造的商機，我們希望能夠親自參加，因為我們非常期待讓您在 GMC HUMMER EV 皮卡中體驗 Watts to Freedom 等技術，以及我們不斷提升其功能的 Super Cruise。例如，就在上個月，我們展示了最新版本的 Super Cruise 技術，該技術將在 2022 年末的 Sierra 1500 Denali 上採用。它將包括在免提駕駛時拖車的能力。

We will also update you on Cruise, which continues to make excellent progress towards launching its first fully driverless commercial service. GM remains a major accelerator of Cruise's mission with the purpose-built origin, giving Cruise a huge competitive advantage.

我們還將向您介紹 Cruise，它在推出其首個完全無人駕駛的商業服務方面繼續取得巨大進展。通用汽車仍然是 Cruise 使命的主要加速器，具有專門的起源，賦予 Cruise 巨大的競爭優勢。

I also want to take a moment to share some new insights into our plan to launch more than 30 EVs globally by 2025 and become the EV market leader in North America. As we recently announced, because we are increasing our 2020 to 2025 capital and engineering investment from $27 billion to $35 billion, we will add 2 new vehicles to our commercial portfolio. The first is a full-sized battery electric cargo van for Chevrolet, which will exceed the expectations of small business owners, tradespeople and anyone else who has been well served by the Chevrolet Express.

我還想花點時間分享一些關於我們計劃到 2025 年在全球推出 30 多輛電動汽車並成為北美電動汽車市場領導者的新見解。正如我們最近宣布的那樣，由於我們將 2020 年至 2025 年的資本和工程投資從 270 億美元增加到 350 億美元，我們將在我們的商業投資組合中增加 2 款新車。第一個是雪佛蘭全尺寸電池電動貨車，它將超出小企業主、商人和其他任何得到雪佛蘭快車服務的人的期望。

The second is a medium-duty truck that will put both Ultium and our Hydrotec hydrogen fuel cell technology to work, powering service and utility vehicles such as school buses, bucket trucks, wreckers and more. Both will complement BrightDrop and keep our commercial fleet market share growing, and we'll share more details about these products as we move forward.

第二個是中型卡車，它將同時使用 Ultium 和我們的 Hydrotec 氫燃料電池技術，為校車、斗式卡車、清障車等服務和多用途車輛提供動力。兩者都將補充 BrightDrop 並使我們的商業車隊市場份額保持增長，隨著我們的前進，我們將分享有關這些產品的更多細節。

Now if you step back for a moment and think about what this means for the future of work and the greenhouse gas reduction from surface transportation, because when you say between these new trucks, BrightDrop, EV pickups coming from Chevrolet and GMC and our work with Wabtec on locomotives and Navistar on semi trucks, we will have electric solutions for almost any towing or hauling jobs you can imagine.

現在，如果你退後一步，想想這對未來的工作和減少地面運輸產生的溫室氣體意味著什麼，因為當你說這些新卡車、BrightDrop、來自雪佛蘭和 GMC 的 EV 皮卡以及我們的合作時Wabtec 用於機車，Navistar 用於半卡車，我們將為您能想像到的幾乎所有牽引或牽引工作提供電動解決方案。

Hydrotec is a very important part of the equation because it expands our reach into additional growth markets. We're already at work on our first production fuel cells leveraging innovative manufacturing processes that can unlock economies of scale and reduce overall costs. This technology, along with our 4 U.S. battery plants that we have announced and the full portfolio of EVs we are planning, in addition to the customer experience we're creating, underscore once again how determined we are to lead.

Hydrotec 是等式中非常重要的一部分，因為它將我們的業務範圍擴大到其他增長市場。我們已經在利用創新的製造工藝開發我們的第一批生產燃料電池，這些工藝可以釋放規模經濟並降低總體成本。除了我們正在創造的客戶體驗之外，這項技術以及我們已宣布的 4 個美國電池廠和我們正在計劃的完整電動汽車產品組合，再次強調了我們領導的決心。

The determination reaches through the entire company. And when I meet with our employees, they tell me how incredibly excited they are to be part of a once-in-a-generation transformation that will truly change the world. Their tenacity and collective commitment to our vision are why we are delivering such strong business results and advancing our future so quickly. So now for a closer look at our results and the outlook, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

決心傳遍了整個公司。當我與我們的員工會面時，他們告訴我，他們是多麼興奮能夠成為真正改變世界的千載難逢的變革的一部分。他們的堅韌和對我們願景的集體承諾是我們取得如此強勁的業務成果並如此迅速地推進我們未來的原因。因此，現在為了更深入地了解我們的結果和前景，我將把電話轉給 Paul。

Thanks, Mary, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you taking the time to join us this morning. We've just experienced another very exciting quarter for the company with robust financial performance, and we're taking advantage of opportunities to accelerate our growth strategy with the additional investments we announced in EV and AV technology, that which Mary just outlined.

謝謝，瑪麗，大家早上好。感謝您今天早上抽出時間加入我們。我們剛剛經歷了公司財務表現強勁的另一個非常令人興奮的季度，我們正在利用機會通過我們宣布的對 EV 和 AV 技術的額外投資來加速我們的增長戰略，瑪麗剛剛概述了這一點。

During the quarter, we announced expectations of first half EBIT adjusted in the $8.5 billion to $9.5 billion range, which we achieved despite an $800 million charge related to the Bolt EV recall and $400 million primarily related to the side airbag recall late in the quarter, which were not included in our first half guidance range. I'll get into the details of these results in a minute, but first, really wanted to highlight the overall strength in the business driven by the incredible demand environment for our new end-use vehicles, allowing us to deliver results that are better all-in than we expected coming into the year.

在本季度，我們宣布了上半年息稅前利潤的預期調整在 85 億美元至 95 億美元的範圍內，儘管與 Bolt EV 召回相關的費用為 8 億美元，而本季度末與側面安全氣囊召回相關的費用為 4 億美元，但我們還是實現了這一目標，未包含在我們上半年的指導範圍內。我將在一分鐘內詳細介紹這些結果，但首先，我真的想強調由我們新的最終用途車輛令人難以置信的需求環境驅動的業務的整體實力，使我們能夠提供更好的結果- 比我們預期的要進入這一年。

For instance, we saw an increase in our vehicle production in May and June versus what was projected on our earnings call in early May, and we were able to pull ahead some chip availability into Q2 from Q3. This has all led to the significantly improved performance in the first half of the year. We are seeing new challenges in the third quarter due to global COVID outbreaks, including the current outbreak in Malaysia resulting in closures of assembly, test and packaging facilities for semiconductors. This remains, as we said, a fluid and rapidly changing environment.

例如，我們看到 5 月和 6 月的汽車產量與 5 月初財報電話會議上的預測相比有所增加，並且我們能夠將一些芯片供應量從第三季度提前到第二季度。這一切都導致了上半年業績的顯著提升。由於全球 COVID 爆發，我們在第三季度看到了新的挑戰，包括目前在馬來西亞爆發導致半導體組裝、測試和封裝設施關閉。正如我們所說，這仍然是一個流動且快速變化的環境。

Given our first half performance and our expectations for the rest of the year, we are raising our full year EBIT-adjusted guidance to an expected range of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion from the $10 billion to $11 billion previous range. While raw materials continue to be a significant year-over-year headwind as platinum group metals and steel prices have continued to increase this year, we have been mitigating the impact by managing several other factors, including pricing and mix, go-to-market strategies, record profits at GM Financial and other cost efficiencies.

鑑於我們上半年的業績和我們對今年剩餘時間的預期，我們將全年息稅前利潤調整後的預期範圍從之前的 100 億美元至 110 億美元提高至 115 億美元至 135 億美元的預期範圍。雖然隨著今年鉑族金屬和鋼鐵價格持續上漲，原材料同比仍是一個顯著的逆風，但我們一直在通過管理其他幾個因素來減輕影響，包括定價和組合、上市戰略、GM Financial 創紀錄的利潤和其他成本效率。

We are providing a wider guidance range than typical, given the fluid semiconductor situation and expect our variability within the range to be primarily driven by production volumes.

鑑於流體半導體的情況，我們提供的指導範圍比典型範圍更廣，並預計我們在該範圍內的可變性主要受產量驅動。

So let's get into the strong results of the quarter in more detail. In Q2, we generated $34.2 billion in net revenue, $4.1 billion in EBIT adjusted, 12% EBIT-adjusted margin, $1.97 in EPS diluted adjusted and $2.5 billion in adjusted automotive free cash flow. We exceeded expectations by driving strong price and mix performance in North America through our production prioritization actions and our go-to-market strategy. Additionally, high used vehicle prices drove continued record results at GM Financial.

因此，讓我們更詳細地了解本季度的強勁業績。在第二季度，我們產生了 342 億美元的淨收入、41 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤、12% 的息稅前利潤調整後的利潤率、1.97 美元的調整後每股收益和 25 億美元的調整後汽車自由現金流。通過我們的生產優先行動和進入市場戰略，我們在北美推動了強勁的價格和組合表現，超出了預期。此外，高昂的二手車價格推動了 GM Financial 持續創紀錄的業績。

So let's take a closer look at North America. In Q2, North America delivered EBIT adjusted of $2.9 billion against the backdrop of strong pricing on our full-size pickups and continued performance from the launch of our all-new full-size SUVs, partially offset by warranty charges in material and commodity costs. We generated a 10.4% EBIT-adjusted margin in the region.

因此，讓我們仔細看看北美。在我們的全尺寸皮卡定價強勁以及我們推出全新全尺寸 SUV 的持續表現的背景下，北美地區的調整後息稅前利潤為 29 億美元，部分被材料和商品成本的保修費用所抵消。我們在該地區產生了 10.4% 的 EBIT 調整後利潤率。

Our strong average transaction prices, up over 14% year-over-year, speak to the high demand for our full-size trucks and SUVs. A big contributor to this increase is the demand for premium trims, our platinum sport and premium luxury trims on Escalades doubled. And on Yukon, our Denali and AT4 represent more than 2/3 of all Yukon sales.

我們強勁的平均交易價格同比上漲超過 14%，說明對我們的全尺寸卡車和 SUV 的高需求。這種增長的一個重要因素是對高級裝飾的需求，我們在 Escalades 上的鉑金運動和高級豪華裝飾翻了一番。在育空地區，我們的 Denali 和 AT4 佔育空地區所有銷售額的 2/3 以上。

Our volume has been constrained by very tight inventories, which we believe is having a temporary impact on market share in the region. We ended the quarter with approximately 212,000 units in dealer inventory. We expect continued high demand in the second half of this year, with continued low inventory into and through 2022.

我們的銷量受到非常緊張的庫存的限制，我們認為這對該地區的市場份額產生了暫時的影響。我們在本季度末的經銷商庫存約為 212,000 台。我們預計今年下半年需求將繼續保持高位，到 2022 年庫存將繼續保持低位。

Let's move to GM International. GMI EBIT adjusted was up $300 million year-over-year as we experienced positive price and mix benefits across the segment. Second quarter equity income in China was $300 million, driven also by strong mix, stabilization in pricing and material cost performance, more than offsetting headwinds due to the chip supply shortage and higher commodity costs. In addition, we received a $600 million dividend from our China automotive JVs in Q2.

讓我們轉向通用汽車國際。調整後的 GMI 息稅前利潤同比增長 3 億美元，因為我們在整個部門都經歷了積極的價格和組合收益。中國第二季度的股權收入為 3 億美元，這也得益於強勁的組合、定價和材料成本表現的穩定，抵消了芯片供應短缺和商品成本上升帶來的不利影響。此外，我們在第二季度從我們的中國汽車合資企業獲得了 6 億美元的股息。

EBIT adjusted in GMI, excluding China, was up $200 million year-over-year as a result of favorable pricing and mix. The underlying strength of the GMI business continues to improve as the team drives pricing, mix and cost optimization. However, we do expect some challenges in the second half, primarily due to semiconductor-driven plant downtime.

由於有利的定價和組合，除中國以外的 GMI 調整後的息稅前利潤同比增長 2 億美元。隨著團隊推動定價、組合和成本優化，GMI 業務的潛在實力不斷增強。然而，我們確實預計下半年會出現一些挑戰，主要是由於半導體驅動的工廠停機時間。

Few comments on GM Financial, Cruise and our Corp segment. GM Financial has continued to deliver, with record Q2 EBT adjusted of $1.6 billion and is benefiting from both strong used vehicle prices and continued favorable consumer credit checks. We received $1.2 billion in dividends from GM Financial year-to-date, and we anticipate additional dividends to be paid in 2021 as we benefit from their record earnings.

對 GM Financial、Cruise 和我們的公司部門幾乎沒有評論。 GM Financial 繼續交付，調整後的第二季度 EBT 達到創紀錄的 16 億美元，並受益於強勁的二手車價格和持續有利的消費者信用檢查。年初至今，我們從 GM Financial 獲得了 12 億美元的股息，我們預計將在 2021 年支付額外的股息，因為我們受益於他們創紀錄的收益。

Cruise costs in the quarter were $300 million and Corp segment EBIT was a loss of $40 million, which was better than normal run rate due to mark-to-market gains on investments, partially offsetting costs.

本季度的郵輪成本為 3 億美元，企業部門的息稅前利潤虧損 4,000 萬美元，由於投資按市值計價收益，部分抵消了成本，這好於正常運行率。

Now let's turn to our 2021 second half outlook. When thinking about the second half of the year performance, there are some fundamental pressures versus what we've seen in the first half. We've seen commodity inflation continue to rise. And while it's come down off the peaks, we expect second half commodity expense to be $1.5 billion to $2 billion higher than the first half of the year.

現在讓我們轉向我們對 2021 年下半年的展望。在考慮下半年的表現時，與我們在上半年看到的情況相比，存在一些基本壓力。我們已經看到商品通脹繼續上升。雖然它已從峰值回落，但我們預計下半年商品費用將比上半年高出 15 億至 20 億美元。

At GM Financial, we expect second half headwinds of $1 billion to $1.5 billion versus the first half as we do not assume allowance adjustments experienced in the first half will repeat and we expect lower lease termination volume. Record high purchase rates are capping the gains at contract residual value and the start of credit normalization. We expect our growth initiative investments in the second half to increase by about $500 million. And the first half also contained $400 million in mark-to-market gains on equity investments that we do not assume will repeat. All of this adds up to about $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion of headwinds in the second half of the year.

在 GM Financial，我們預計與上半年相比，下半年的逆風為 10 億美元至 15 億美元，因為我們認為上半年經歷的撥備調整不會重複，並且我們預計租賃終止量會減少。創紀錄的高購買率限制了合同剩餘價值的收益和信貸正常化的開始。我們預計下半年我們的增長計劃投資將增加約 5 億美元。上半年還包含 4 億美元的股權投資按市值計價收益，我們認為這些收益不會重複。所有這些加起來在今年下半年帶來了約 35 億至 45 億美元的不利因素。

In addition, we expect North American volumes to be approximately 100,000 units lower in the second half versus the first, including some impact from our full-size pickup truck and SUV plants, primarily as a result of some of the near-term pressures in Malaysia impacting plants across North America. Otherwise, we expect the robust demand and pricing environment to continue as we get into 2022.

此外，我們預計下半年北美銷量將比上半年減少約 100,000 輛，包括我們的全尺寸皮卡和 SUV 工廠的一些影響，主要是由於馬來西亞的一些近期壓力影響整個北美的工廠。否則，我們預計隨著我們進入 2022 年，強勁的需求和定價環境將持續下去。

From a full year perspective, we expect EPS diluted adjusted in the range of $5.40 to $6.40 and adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance in the $1 billion to $2 billion range. This semiconductor shortage, as we said, remains fluid and the supply chain challenges continue in the second half of the year. Our guidance assumes no year-end work-in-process inventory related to vehicles produced without modules. Significant cash flows could shift from 2021 to 2022 if we have these work-in-process vehicles held at year-end. We continue to expect CapEx for the year to be in the $9 billion to $10 billion range.

從全年的角度來看，我們預計調整後的每股收益在 5.40 美元至 6.40 美元之間，調整後的汽車自由現金流指引在 10 億美元至 20 億美元之間。正如我們所說，這種半導體短缺仍然不穩定，供應鏈挑戰在下半年繼續存在。我們的指導假設沒有與不帶模塊生產的車輛相關的年終在製品庫存。如果我們在年底持有這些在製品工具，則大量現金流可能會從 2021 年轉移到 2022 年。我們繼續預計今年的資本支出將在 90 億至 100 億美元之間。

So in summary, we had a very strong first half of the year. I think it highlights the strength of our underlying business. We've again demonstrated our flexibility, our laser focus on execution and our ability to manage through a significant disruption while generating strong results, and we don't expect that to change. There are still some challenges ahead of us, but we have the team and expertise to navigate this while not losing sight of our vision.

總而言之，我們今年上半年表現非常強勁。我認為它突出了我們基礎業務的實力。我們再次展示了我們的靈活性，我們對執行的高度關注以及我們在產生重大成果的同時管理重大中斷的能力，我們預計這種情況不會改變。我們仍然面臨一些挑戰，但我們擁有團隊和專業知識來應對這一挑戰，同時又不會忘記我們的願景。

We will continue investing in exciting new growth opportunities, including EVs, battery supply and technology and software solutions that will drive growth as well as desirable and differentiated products and services for our customers. We look forward to sharing more around these opportunities at our Investor Day on October 6 and 7. This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們將繼續投資於令人興奮的新增長機會，包括電動汽車、電池供應和技術和軟件解決方案，這些解決方案將推動增長，以及為我們的客戶提供理想和差異化的產品和服務。我們期待在 10 月 6 日至 7 日的投資者日上分享更多關於這些機會的信息。我們的開場評論到此結束，我們現在將轉到電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

Just want to get a little bit more into the second half and then also looking ahead to '22 in terms of how these could repeat. Maybe start with the decreased volume. Can you remind us of how much volume you lost in first half? And then what -- why the conservatism around second half?

只是想在下半場再多一點，然後就這些如何重複而展望 22 年。也許從減少的音量開始。你能提醒我們上半場你損失了多少成交量嗎？然後是什麼 - 為什麼在下半年左右保守？

So in the first half, our production was actually up year-over-year, which is not necessarily true of everyone. So I think we produced about 200,000 more vehicles in the first half of '21 than we did in '20. And that was, I think, really a function of how well the team performed. So to be essentially flat to that level, we don't see as a material downgrade to kind of the trends that we've seen in the business right now.

所以上半年，我們的產量實際上是同比增長的，這並不一定對每個人都是如此。所以我認為我們在 21 年上半年比 20 年多生產了大約 200,000 輛汽車。我認為，這實際上取決於團隊的表現。因此，要基本持平於該水平，我們認為不會對我們目前在業務中看到的那種趨勢進行實質性降級。

I think what you're hearing from us is sort of a very real acknowledgment of what we see out there with COVID. Now it may turn out to be less impactful than we think it is. But I think the approach that we've taken through this has been pretty consistent quarter-to-quarter as we're cautious. We started pointing out some of the challenges that we were seeing in the forward supply chain in Malaysia really going back into late May, early June time frame, and unfortunately, just wasn't able to catch up on their vaccination rates, but they're making good progress. So we want to take a little bit of a cautious tone because we want to maintain credibility around these ranges. And if we see the environment improve, then I think we'll respond accordingly.

我認為您從我們那裡聽到的內容是對我們在 COVID 中看到的內容的一種非常真實的承認。現在它的影響可能沒有我們想像的那麼大。但我認為我們採取的方法在每個季度都非常一致，因為我們很謹慎。我們開始指出我們在馬來西亞的前向供應鏈中看到的一些挑戰，實際上可以追溯到 5 月底、6 月初的時間框架，不幸的是，他們無法趕上他們的疫苗接種率，但他們重新取得良好進展。因此，我們希望採取謹慎的態度，因為我們希望在這些範圍內保持可信度。如果我們看到環境有所改善，那麼我想我們會做出相應的反應。

Okay. And just a brief follow-on. How should we think about mix, especially in 3Q? We -- you have the downtime now at your 3 big pickup truck plants. That's a headwind. You're bringing on some of the more mid-range CUVs like the Equinox or, actually, when do those come online? And also kind of related to that, there's this whole issue of trucks in holding lots that are complete, semi-complete, so the suppliers would have booked, for example, their axles, but are not shipped. How are those going to enter into wholesale sales over the next quarter or 2?

好的。只是一個簡短的後續。我們應該如何看待混合，尤其是在第三季度？我們——您現在在您的 3 家大型皮卡車工廠有停機時間。這是一個逆風。你帶來了一些更中檔的 CUV，比如 Equinox，或者實際上，這些 CUV 什麼時候上線？也與此相關，整個問題的卡車都存放在完整、半完整的批次中，因此供應商會預訂，例如，他們的車軸，但沒有發貨。那些將如何在下一季度或第二季度進入批發銷售？

Yes. So Brian, I think if you look at our full-size truck production, we've actually been performing remarkably well. The shutdowns that were announced yesterday are really the first ones kind of the full -- first full ones that we've taken this year. So -- and it is somewhat short term that we see that. We're managing this week to week. I think the bulk of -- when we look at the bulk of the 100,000 units from first -- second half to first half is really in crossovers. We think truck production and full-size SUV are relatively stable over that time period. But again, we're going to continue to watch that.

是的。所以布萊恩，我認為如果你看看我們的全尺寸卡車生產，我們實際上表現得非常好。昨天宣布的停工確實是第一次完全關閉——我們今年採取的第一次完全關閉。所以 - 我們看到這一點有點短期。我們每週都在管理。我認為大部分 - 當我們查看上半年的 100,000 個單位中的大部分時 - 下半年到上半年確實是跨界車。我們認為卡車生產和全尺寸 SUV 在此期間相對穩定。但同樣，我們將繼續關注這一點。

The vehicles that are built without the modules, I think, present for us, as we've talked about before, a strong option for us. In fact, when we have downtime in the plants like we've announced, we're actually using some of that where we've got availability of the chips that were slated for production that can't be produced. We're redeploying those into some of those vehicles that have been produced earlier, allows us to maintain a little bit of the wholesaling momentum going forward.

正如我們之前談到的，我認為，沒有模塊製造的車輛對我們來說是一個強有力的選擇。事實上，當我們宣布的工廠停工時，我們實際上正在使用其中一些我們已經獲得無法生產的芯片的可用性。我們正在將這些重新部署到一些較早生產的車輛中，使我們能夠保持一點點的批發勢頭。

So we're going to continue to watch that, we're going to continue to do it. We're being careful to make sure that above all else, we're managing quality for the vehicles, and the manufacturing and engineering teams have really done an amazing job of managing through the logistical difficulties of doing it. But we continue to see that as a very useful tool for us to navigate this in the short run.

所以我們將繼續觀察，我們將繼續這樣做。我們小心翼翼地確保最重要的是，我們正在管理車輛的質量，製造和工程團隊在管理這方面的後勤困難方面做得非常出色。但我們仍然認為這是一個非常有用的工具，可以幫助我們在短期內進行導航。

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

Wanted to just follow up on the comments on the second half guide and I guess the commentary on the volume piece around crossovers. So maybe you could just talk to expectations on price and mix versus the first half. Is it fair to assume that if your volume is actually coming down a bit and your inventory may even get tighter? Is there some incremental benefit on price and potential mix as well?

只想跟進下半部分指南的評論，我猜是關於交叉點的評論。所以也許你可以談談對價格和混合與上半年的預期。如果您的銷量實際上有所下降並且您的庫存甚至可能變得更加緊張，是否可以假設？價格和潛在組合是否也有一些增量收益？

Well, I think there is. I mean, we think we'll continue to see strong price, and obviously, Paul referred to the strong mix that we have that's leading to these record ATPs. And I think it speaks to the demand for the products that we have, especially full-size trucks, full-size SUVs and, frankly, crossovers as well. So we think we're going to see a strong pricing environment continue throughout the rest of the year and into 2022. And so I think there's opportunities for both.

嗯，我認為有。我的意思是，我們認為我們將繼續看到強勁的價格，顯然，保羅提到了我們擁有的強大組合，這導致了這些創紀錄的 ATP。我認為這說明了對我們現有產品的需求，尤其是全尺寸卡車、全尺寸 SUV，坦率地說，還有跨界車。因此，我們認為我們將在今年剩餘時間和 2022 年看到強勁的定價環境。所以我認為兩者都有機會。

Okay, great. And then just a longer-term one, and this is more so on ICE versus EV profitability. I'm sure you'll give a little more at the Investor Day. But you're reducing your investment on ICE programs. The ICE demand is actually -- and profit is quite strong. So if ICE demand remains intact, can we actually see ICE profitability expand in the coming years as you reduce investment? And if that's the case, how do you mitigate that potential profit or margin dilution as you shift your mix from ICE to EV?

好，太棒了。然後只是一個長期的問題，ICE 與 EV 的盈利能力更是如此。我相信你會在投資者日給予更多。但是您正在減少對 ICE 計劃的投資。 ICE 的需求實際上是——而且利潤相當強勁。因此，如果 ICE 需求保持不變，隨著您減少投資，我們能否真正看到 ICE 盈利能力在未來幾年內擴大？如果是這樣的話，當你將你的組合從 ICE 轉移到 EV 時，你如何減輕潛在的利潤或利潤稀釋？

Well, I think we're very well positioned from an ICE portfolio because of the investments we made in new vehicle platforms, full-size trucks, mid-size crossovers, full-size SUVs, et cetera. So we're really well positioned with an ICE portfolio, which allows us to focus our investment on electric -- full electric products. And as we work to make that transition, yes, we see, at the early days, some pricing pressure due to battery costs, but that's why we're so aggressively taking battery -- working to take battery costs down with multiple technology road maps. You will hear us talk more about that when we're together in October.

好吧，我認為我們在 ICE 投資組合中處於非常有利的位置，因為我們在新車平台、全尺寸卡車、中型跨界車、全尺寸 SUV 等方面進行了投資。因此，我們在 ICE 產品組合方面處於非常有利的地位，這使我們能夠將投資重點放在電動——全電動產品上。當我們努力實現這一轉變時，是的，我們在早期看到了由於電池成本導致的一些定價壓力，但這就是我們如此積極地採用電池的原因——努力通過多種技術路線圖來降低電池成本.當我們在 10 月份聚在一起時，你會聽到我們更多地談論這個。

But then we also see, filling that gap will be the strong foundation that we have to build on as it relates to software and subscriptions. Now that we have our vehicle intelligent platform, which allows for full over-the-air updates and that we started launching that new VIP in 2019 with the CT4 and the CT5 and then the Corvette and it continues, that's going to give us a lot of opportunity for more software services that we can provide that customers value and, therefore, will pay for as well as subscriptions.

但隨後我們也看到，填補這一空白將是我們必須建立的堅實基礎，因為它與軟件和訂閱相關。現在我們有了車輛智能平台，可以進行全面的無線更新，並且我們在 2019 年開始推出新的 VIP，包括 CT4 和 CT5，然後是 Corvette，而且它還在繼續，這將給我們帶來很多我們可以提供更多軟件服務的機會，這些服務是客戶重視的，因此會像訂閱一樣付費。

So if you think about it, I see the opportunity we have, and then I haven't even really talked about the growth opportunity we have with leveraging the Ultium platform, leveraging the Hydrotec platform as well as growing our commercial vehicle business and with BrightDrop in some of the vehicles that we talked about today. So there's tremendous growth opportunity that will, as we get battery costs down, will be sitting on top of the strong margins we have today.

因此，如果您考慮一下，我看到了我們擁有的機會，然後我什至沒有真正談論我們利用 Ultium 平台、利用 Hydrotec 平台以及發展我們的商用車業務和 BrightDrop 所擁有的增長機會在我們今天討論的一些車輛中。因此，隨著我們降低電池成本，巨大的增長機會將超越我們今天擁有的強勁利潤。

So we see it, in the interim, kind of filling the hole, but we're working quickly and think we have a leadership position in battery cell cost. That's why we've announced the 4 plants. So I see a huge growth opportunity as we move through this transition.

因此，我們看到它在此期間填補了漏洞，但我們正在迅速開展工作，並認為我們在電池成本方面處於領先地位。這就是我們宣布這 4 家工廠的原因。因此，隨著我們完成這一轉變，我看到了巨大的增長機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Was hoping, just first, to clarify what's happening to profitability in North America. So if you could just bear with me. Your costs were up $3.9 billion year-over-year in the quarter. Sounds like there's a few unusual pieces there like the warranty, which you called out, and I appreciate you talking about that $1.2 billion. That wasn't in Street expectations. And I think you had about $1 billion year-over-year in Q2 from nonrecurrence of last year's austerity. So that means that there's probably $1.7 billion or so of commodities and other materials year-over-year. And everyone's experiencing that.

希望首先澄清北美的盈利能力正在發生什麼。所以，如果你能忍受我。本季度您的成本同比增長 39 億美元。聽起來那裡有一些不尋常的部分，比如你提到的保修，我很感謝你談論那 12 億美元。這不在華爾街的預期中。而且我認為由於去年的緊縮政策不再發生，您在第二季度的同比收入約為 10 億美元。這意味著每年可能有 17 億美元左右的商品和其他材料。每個人都在經歷這一點。

So my question is, do you think that, that means that actually that some of the -- a significant part of the pricing that we're seeing in the industry, we shouldn't think about that in isolation. We should think about that against the material and commodity because it's really just offsetting variable costs. And if so, just -- if you can just give us a sense of what you're kind of aiming for with regard to North American margins once the dust settles.

所以我的問題是，你是否認為這意味著實際上我們在行業中看到的一些定價的重要部分，我們不應該孤立地考慮這一點。我們應該針對材料和商品考慮這一點，因為它實際上只是抵消了可變成本。如果是這樣，只是 - 如果您能在塵埃落定後讓我們了解您在北美利潤率方面的目標。

Yes, Rod, thanks for that. The -- I wouldn't attribute all -- you did a good breakdown of some of the cost inflation and the warranties and what we saw on the recalls. But I wouldn't attribute all the remaining to just inflation of the underlying materials because the other thing that's going on is we are producing a much richer mix with more options and features. So material costs are up, but those are positive margin-accretive sales, so we're actually encouraged by that going forward.

是的，羅德，謝謝你。 - 我不會全部歸咎於 - 你對一些成本膨脹和保修以及我們在召回中看到的內容做了很好的細分。但我不會把剩下的所有都歸結為底層材料的膨脹，因為正在發生的另一件事是我們正在生產一個更豐富的組合，有更多的選擇和功能。所以材料成本上升了，但這些都是積極的利潤增長銷售，所以我們實際上對未來的發展感到鼓舞。

So there's no doubt we've had strong margin performance. And I think what you said, what we've tried to facilitate for the guidance that we put forward here is the underlying environment. I don't think we see any meaningful reasons to expect it to change in terms of the demand in the short run and even into 2022, where we continue to see depressed inventories. I think when the chip situation resolves itself, it's not going to probably be a massive sort of influx of manufacturing right out of the gate.

因此，毫無疑問，我們的利潤率表現強勁。我認為你所說的，我們試圖為我們在這裡提出的指導提供便利的是底層環境。我認為我們沒有看到任何有意義的理由來預期它會在短期內甚至到 2022 年的需求方面發生變化，屆時我們將繼續看到庫存低迷。我認為當芯片問題自行解決時，它可能不會是一門大規模的製造業湧入。

So we do see continued tight inventories going into 2022. So I think one of the cautions about the second half is to not read too much into it and extrapolate that as a 2022 performance. We'll give more guidance on 2022 as we get through the budget process and towards the end of the year with what we see. But there's nothing fundamentally different about demand that we see changing in the near term.

因此，我們確實看到 2022 年庫存持續緊張。所以我認為關於下半年的警告之一是不要過多解讀它並將其推斷為 2022 年的表現。隨著我們完成預算流程並在年底前看到我們所看到的，我們將在 2022 年提供更多指導。但我們認為短期內需求的變化並沒有根本性的不同。

Okay. So just to clarify, do you believe that once the dust settles, a 10%-plus margin is sustainable in North America? And just secondly, just as we're thinking about that 2022, just starting from the midpoint of this year's guidance, you have $12.5 billion. It looks like if we just look at the commodity investment, GMF and mark-to-market delta that you laid out for the second half and offset that with the nonoccurrence of recalls, there's maybe a $2.5 billion drag into next year from those things.

好的。所以澄清一下，你認為一旦塵埃落定，10% 以上的利潤率在北美是可持續的嗎？其次，就在我們考慮 2022 年的時候，從今年指導的中點開始，你有 125 億美元。看起來，如果我們只看你為下半年制定的商品投資、GMF 和按市值計價的增量，並用不發生召回來抵消這些影響，那麼明年這些事情可能會拖累 25 億美元。

Can you just be a little bit more specific on what the recovery in volume actually means? Because this year, you're only going to do about 2.5 million vehicles. Are we correct in assuming that a more normal run rate for you at this point is in the 3.1 million, 3.2 million unit range?

您能否更具體地說明數量恢復的實際含義？因為今年，你只會生產大約 250 萬輛汽車。我們是否正確假設此時您更正常的運行率在 310 萬到 320 萬個單位範圍內？

Yes. Well, for the avoidance of doubt, yes, we do think that North American margins can be above 10%, and that was what I was trying to get at in there. So I think you've attributed some of the headwinds, but like I said, we got to be cautious not to read into it. So for example, if you look at commodities, we saw some of the pressure in first half. The lion's share of it is hitting us in the second half, but commodity prices are down off their peaks.

是的。好吧，為免生疑問，是的，我們確實認為北美的利潤率可以超過 10%，而這正是我試圖達到的目標。所以我認為你已經將一些不利因素歸因於，但就像我說的那樣，我們必須小心不要閱讀它。因此，例如，如果您看一下大宗商品，我們會看到上半年的一些壓力。其中最大的一部分是在下半年打擊我們，但大宗商品價格已從高點回落。

So while we'll see a little bit of pressure in the first half, if prices stay at these levels, we would actually expect a little bit of uplift as we go into the second half of '22. But there's a long time between here and there that we have to be cautious. And production will certainly be higher next year as we hope and expect that the chips will normalize.

因此，雖然我們會在上半年看到一點壓力，但如果價格保持在這些水平，我們實際上會在進入 22 年下半年時預期會出現一點上漲。但是這里和那里之間有很長的時間，我們必須保持謹慎。明年的產量肯定會更高，因為我們希望並期望芯片能夠正常化。

But like we said, from the very beginning, we've approached this thing with caution because I can't tell you how fluid it has been as we manage week to week. But I think when you look at the underlying results and what we've been able to produce in the first half of the year, I think what you've got is a team that has executed incredibly well even versus some of our peers and competitors, and I don't expect that to change going forward.

但就像我們說的那樣，從一開始，我們就謹慎地處理這件事，因為我無法告訴你在我們每週管理的過程中它有多流暢。但是我認為，當您查看基本結果以及我們在上半年能夠產生的結果時，我認為您所擁有的團隊即使與我們的一些同行和競爭對手相比也表現得非常出色，而且我不希望這種情況在未來發生變化。

Paul, I'm going to selfishly just sneak in another just clarification in here. As we think about 2022, we have to extrapolate something here. Should we be anticipating some kind of launch costs or additional spending and things like that as you start to approach the launch of some of these EVs?

保羅，我會自私地在這裡偷偷地再做一個澄清。當我們想到 2022 年時，我們必須在這裡推斷出一些東西。當您開始著手推出其中一些電動汽車時，我們是否應該預期某種啟動成本或額外支出以及類似的事情？

Well, I mean, of course, we're going into sort of a heavy cycle of launches as we get to the more than 30 EVs by 2025, which really begins with the Hummer EV later this fall and as we go into the LYRIQ and various other launches. So there's certainly going to be some pressure from that, and we'll provide more details as we get into the 2022 plan.

嗯，我的意思是，當然，隨著我們到 2025 年推出 30 多輛電動汽車，我們將進入一個沉重的發布週期，這實際上是從今年秋天晚些時候的悍馬電動汽車開始，當我們進入 LYRIQ 和其他各種發射。所以肯定會有一些壓力，我們將在進入 2022 年計劃時提供更多細節。

Okay. But your 10% margin comment is taking that into consideration? Or how should we -- it's kind of an important question. How should we be thinking about that?

好的。但是您的 10% 保證金評論是否考慮到了這一點？或者我們應該如何——這是一個重要的問題。我們應該如何思考這個問題？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Paul, maybe you could just help us out a little bit here because when you communicated to the market in, I think, mid-June, the $4 billion to $5 billion this quarter and then the $2 billion to $3 billion headwind in the second half versus the first half, at that time, I don't think the Bolt recall was out like maybe you knew about that, so maybe it was considered in that. But because if we back out the warranty stuff you're talking about here, it's more like a $6 billion half-over-half headwind. So I just want to understand, really, some of the moving pieces and what changed maybe from your prior communications.

保羅，也許你可以在這裡幫助我們一點，因為當你在 6 月中旬與市場溝通時，本季度的 40 億至 50 億美元，然後是下半年 20 億至 30 億美元的逆風與上半場相比，當時，我不認為博爾特召回已經結束，就像你可能知道的那樣，所以也許它被考慮在內。但是因為如果我們取消您在這裡談論的保修內容，那更像是 60 億美元的逆風。所以我只想了解，真的，一些動人的部分，以及可能從你之前的溝通中發生的變化。

Yes. So we've obviously provided more color, Joe, into some of the underlyings, and what we talked about more in detail today is the particular nuances around GMF. So when you look at used car valuations, there reaches a point where you get to contractual value and you don't participate in the upside, and Dan's on the call, too, and he can provide more color in this space.

是的。因此，Joe，我們顯然為一些底層證券提供了更多顏色，而我們今天更詳細地討論的是圍繞 GMF 的特殊細微差別。因此，當您查看二手車估值時，您會達到合同價值並且您不參與上漲的點，而丹也在通話中，他可以在這個領域提供更多的色彩。

We also have fewer lease vehicles coming on, which was a function of leases underwritten about 3 years ago in the second half of the year. And then most importantly, you've got the -- from the credit performance, there's a component of that under the new accounting standards for accounting for credit reserves that is kind of a onetime adjustment going forward. So we see those pressures.

我們的租賃車輛也減少了，這是大約 3 年前在下半年承保的租賃的一個功能。然後最重要的是，你已經從信貸表現中得到了——根據新的會計準則對信貸儲備進行會計處理的一部分，這是一種一次性的調整。所以我們看到了這些壓力。

But I think when you look at the underlying business, you look at pricing has remained consistent, you look at some material costs, which are coming with the higher trims. We think that we're able to overcome some of these, going forward. So like I said, there's a lot of noise going on in the short term, particularly around how we're thinking about COVID and the Delta variant, that we've got to be cautious to not extrapolate too much out of this in the longer term.

但我認為，當您查看基礎業務時，您會看到定價保持一致，您會看到一些材料成本，這些成本隨著更高的修剪而出現。我們認為我們能夠克服其中的一些問題，繼續前進。所以就像我說的那樣，短期內會出現很多噪音，特別是關於我們如何看待 COVID 和 Delta 變體，我們必須謹慎，不要在更長的時間內推斷出太多學期。

Okay. But just to be clear, like I guess, like if we look at the GMF and the higher commodity costs, that's, I guess, sort of in line with what you were communicating prior, like I agree, we're getting more detail and we have some of the lower volumes. I know you take more downtime than was probably expected back then. But it does still -- I mean, it still seems like there's something else, especially if we sort of back out some of that warranty, which, again, I don't think was considered in that first half or that second quarter number. So I know you're pointing to growth and other things, but is there anything else that we should consider in the variance?

好的。但要明確一點，就像我猜的那樣，如果我們看看 GMF 和更高的商品成本，我猜，這有點與你之前溝通的內容一致，就像我同意的那樣，我們正在獲得更多細節和我們有一些較低的數量。我知道您需要的停機時間比當時預期的要多。但它仍然存在——我的意思是，它似乎仍然存在其他問題，特別是如果我們在某種程度上取消了部分保修，我再次認為在上半年或第二季度的數字中沒有考慮到這一點。所以我知道你指的是增長和其他事情，但是在方差中我們還應該考慮其他什麼嗎？

I'm not sure, Joe. I guess I'm not sure what you're specifically referencing because I think we've been pretty clear about the moving pieces that make H1 different than H2, but then also talking about our confidence in the business with the margins in North America, the strong pricing power we think we have. So I guess I'm not sure we're understanding your question here.

我不確定，喬。我想我不確定你具體指的是什麼，因為我認為我們已經非常清楚使 H1 與 H2 不同的移動部分，但也談到了我們對北美利潤率業務的信心，我們認為我們擁有的強大定價能力。所以我想我不確定我們是否理解你的問題。

Well, I get -- let me try this. I guess, like maybe just to put it this way, when you sort of indicated the $4 billion to $5 billion for the second quarter, was the warranty stuff already included in that number?

好吧，我明白了——讓我試試這個。我想，也許只是這樣說，當你提到第二季度的 40 億到 50 億美元時，保修的東西已經包含在這個數字中了嗎？

It was not. But not the 2 recalls.

它不是。但不是 2 次召回。

Right. So then like if we back that out, it just seems like the second half versus first half variance is greater than you previously indicated. I understand you're sort of showing some of the moving parts. But like the variance drivers you sort of call out don't seem to fully add up to that number, which would be more like $6 billion ex that warranty number.

對。因此，如果我們支持這一點，看起來下半年與上半年的差異比您之前指出的要大。我知道你在展示一些活動的部分。但就像你所說的差異驅動因素似乎並沒有完全加起來這個數字，這更像是 60 億美元，不包括保修數字。

Well, and I think we can take this off-line and work through it. But I think the other variable here is volume and the fact that we're widening the range here intentionally, given both sort of COVID and sort of the situation that we're seeing in Malaysia. So I think the variability is probably just in production, which is where we're intentionally casting a wide range given some of the near-term uncertainty. And we'll obviously clarify that as we work through it but wanted to proceed cautiously because everybody is talking about the Delta variant of COVID right now. And we want to make sure that we're mindful of hitting the goals that we put out there for the Street.

好吧，我認為我們可以離線並解決它。但我認為這裡的另一個變量是數量以及我們有意擴大範圍的事實，考慮到 COVID 和我們在馬來西亞看到的那種情況。所以我認為可變性可能只是在生產中，考慮到近期的一些不確定性，我們有意在這方面進行廣泛的投放。我們顯然會澄清這一點，因為我們正在處理它，但希望謹慎行事，因為現在每個人都在談論 COVID 的 Delta 變體。我們要確保我們注意實現我們為華爾街設定的目標。

Okay. That helps.

好的。這有幫助。

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just to follow up on that. I mean, expectations out there have been that the semi issue is kind of got -- was at its worst in Q2 and then sort of crawling out Q3, Q4. Are you basically saying you see a big concern that, that has changed with this new variant coming out potentially shutting down some semi plants again? Is that sort of the messaging in that lower production outlook for the second half, just so I'm clear?

只是為了跟進。我的意思是，人們一直期望半問題已經得到 - 在第二季度處於最糟糕的狀態，然後在第三季度，第四季度爬出。你基本上是說你看到一個很大的擔憂，隨著這個新變種的出現可能會再次關閉一些半工廠？在下半年的低產量前景中是否有這種信息，我很清楚嗎？

Colin, I think we just don't know. I mean everybody is learning more about the Delta variant. What I am confident about, though, is we have safety protocols that we know when we follow, people are safe, and that's why we instituted the mask -- reinstituted the mask requirement in the U.S., and some of our other operations around the world, we never stopped wearing masks. So we think we've learned a lot. We're sharing our lessons learned across the globe with the supply base deep into the tiered suppliers, so they have the benefit that we think will help us keep the supply coming. But I think you've heard several other within industry and across, just there are unknowns with the Delta variant, and that's why we're being appropriately cautious. But we do think this is a very different situation than it was 15 months ago because we know how to keep people safe in our operations.

科林，我想我們只是不知道。我的意思是每個人都在更多地了解 Delta 變體。不過，我有信心的是，我們有我們知道的安全協議，當我們遵守時，人們是安全的，這就是我們制定口罩的原因——重新制定了美國的口罩要求，以及我們在世界各地的一些其他業務，我們從未停止戴口罩。所以我們認為我們學到了很多。我們正在與深入到分層供應商的供應基地分享我們在全球範圍內吸取的經驗教訓，因此他們擁有我們認為將幫助我們保持供應的好處。但我認為你已經聽說過其他幾個行業內和整個行業，只是 Delta 變體存在未知數，這就是我們適當謹慎的原因。但我們確實認為這與 15 個月前的情況大不相同，因為我們知道如何在我們的運營中確保人們的安全。

Got it, all right. And then a lot of companies are talking about -- a lot of automakers are talking about sort of how the world may change coming out of this in terms of how you stock inventory and maybe pushing more online. I mean any update on your view on sort of what is the right level of inventory coming out of this to restock to? And whether -- I think you're already selling a lot of vehicles like the Hummer online. I mean, is that going to be even a greater part of your strategy going forward, too?

明白了，好吧。然後很多公司都在談論——很多汽車製造商都在談論世界可能會因此而發生的變化，比如你如何庫存庫存以及可能在網上推出更多產品。我的意思是您對由此產生的適當庫存水平的看法的任何更新？以及是否 - 我認為您已經在網上銷售了很多像悍馬這樣的車輛。我的意思是，這是否也會成為您未來戰略的重要組成部分？

Absolutely. We've learned a lot and big credit to our dealers. We've also given them tools that give them insight into the pipeline, also using data analytics so they order the most optimal products that are going to move fast. So I'm not going to give you a specific number because it's going to depend by segment. But we believe that the optimized inventory level is higher than what it is today. But I think we'd all agree, it's pretty low but much lower than it has been with our historical levels. And it's because of everything we've learned in the way we are approaching selling online, taking orders in some cases.

絕對地。我們從經銷商那裡學到了很多東西。我們還為他們提供了工具，使他們能夠深入了解管道，還使用數據分析，以便他們訂購將快速發展的最佳產品。所以我不會給你一個具體的數字，因為它取決於細分市場。但我們認為優化後的庫存水平比現在要高。但我想我們都會同意，它相當低，但遠低於我們的歷史水平。這是因為我們在接近在線銷售的方式中學到的一切，在某些情況下接受訂單。

But also, we know there's a customer who wants to go to the dealer and drive off with a new vehicle. We want to service them as well. And that's why I think some of the tools we've put in place to help our dealers have the vehicles that they want is going to be very important. So again, I think we're going to be much more efficient, and it will be a true partnership with our dealers as we optimize on both ends.

而且，我們知道有一個客戶想去經銷商那裡開一輛新車。我們也想為他們服務。這就是為什麼我認為我們為幫助經銷商擁有他們想要的車輛而實施的一些工具將非常重要。再說一次，我認為我們的效率會更高，而且隨著我們在兩端進行優化，這將是與我們的經銷商真正的合作夥伴關係。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

Super Cruise is something that's come up on a couple of earnings calls consecutively now, and it's something that's pretty interesting and I think an opportunity not only to have an add-on sale at the time of purchase but also a potential subscription feature, longer term. So maybe you could talk about the implications of deploying Super Cruise. I think '22 models by the end of 2023 is the plan. And what sort of EBITDA implications there can be as you start deploying Super Cruise?

Super Cruise 是現在連續幾次財報電話會議上提出的東西，它非常有趣，我認為不僅有機會在購買時進行附加銷售，而且還有潛在的訂閱功能，長期.所以也許你可以談談部署 Super Cruise 的意義。我認為到 2023 年底的 22 款車型是計劃。當您開始部署 Super Cruise 時，會產生什麼樣的 EBITDA 影響？

Yes. Well, I appreciate your excitement for Super Cruise. As I think we've shared in the past, over, I think, it's between 80% and 85% of those who have experienced Super Cruise say they either must have it on their next vehicle or strongly desire it. And I'm excited to have more people experience Super Cruise, and we'll provide that opportunity at our Investor Day. So I do think there's a huge opportunity.

是的。好吧，我感謝您對 Super Cruise 的興奮。正如我認為我們過去分享的那樣，我認為，在體驗過 Super Cruise 的人中，有 80% 到 85% 的人表示他們要么必須在下一輛車上安裝它，要么強烈希望它。我很高興有更多的人體驗 Super Cruise，我們將在投資者日提供這個機會。所以我確實認為這是一個巨大的機會。

We've also taken the cost down of what it takes to implement Super Cruise on a vehicle as we're expanding its capabilities, the number of roads that are mapped to be able to leverage it. And so this does give us an opportunity, either to sell it or to provide it as a vehicle subscription service that I think is going to be significant. And overall, I'm not going to break out Super Cruise specifically, but I will tell you when we are in our Investor Day, we will provide the opportunity we see broadly in connected vehicle services and subscriptions and then vehicle-related services like OnStar Insurance that is doing quite well as we expand that. So I think there's a huge opportunity in this service space based on the connected vehicle that gives us a very different margin profile and a true growth opportunity. And we'll frame that out for you in October.

我們還降低了在車輛上實施 Super Cruise 所需的成本，因為我們正在擴展其功能，以及映射到能夠利用它的道路數量。所以這確實給了我們一個機會，要么出售它，要么提供它作為我認為意義重大的車輛訂閱服務。總的來說，我不會專門介紹 Super Cruise，但我會告訴你，當我們在投資者日時，我們將提供我們廣泛看到的聯網車輛服務和訂閱機會，然後是 OnStar 等車輛相關服務隨著我們的擴展，保險做得很好。因此，我認為基於聯網車輛的服務領域存在巨大的機會，這為我們提供了非常不同的利潤狀況和真正的增長機會。我們將在 10 月份為您確定這一點。

That's helpful. And for my follow-up question, the company guided to some incremental investment in the second half of this year related to the $35 billion of total investment planned for EVs and AVs. And so should investors think about the run rate you're seeing now in the second half as fully reflective of the added cost for this program? Or should we be anticipating some additional step-up as you go into next year? And if so, can you help to frame that?

這很有幫助。對於我的後續問題，該公司在今年下半年指導了一些與電動汽車和自動駕駛汽車計劃總投資 350 億美元有關的增量投資。那麼投資者是否應該將您現在看到的下半年運行率視為完全反映了該計劃的額外成本？或者我們是否應該期待你進入明年的一些額外的步驟？如果是這樣，你能幫忙把它框起來嗎？

So we increased from $27 billion to $35 billion over the '20 to '25 time frame. And I think that represents the acceleration of not only EVs, and we talked about a couple of new vehicles that we have out. We have obviously more coming, but then also our confidence in EV growth that we announced the 2 additional battery cell plants.

因此，我們在 20 到 25 年的時間範圍內從 270 億美元增加到 350 億美元。我認為這不僅代表了電動汽車的加速，而且我們還談到了我們已經推出的幾款新車。我們顯然還有更多的未來，但我們也對電動汽車的增長充滿信心，我們宣布了另外兩個電池工廠。

So when you talk about a run rate from a capital perspective, I think we announced we're in the $9 billion to, what was it, $9.5 billion -- $9 billion to $10 billion this year. And I think we see similar ranges as we move forward. But again, in this acceleration period getting to EVs and then we expect that will come back down.

因此，當您從資本的角度談論運行率時，我認為我們宣布我們今年將在 90 億美元到 95 億美元 - 90 億美元到 100 億美元之間。而且我認為隨著我們的前進，我們會看到類似的範圍。但同樣，在這個加速發展電動汽車的時期，我們預計這種情況會回落。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

Mary, so insurance, you mentioned it, but I would love if you could give us a bit more. Where are you rolling it out? Anything at all on take rate? Because I'm thinking, and correct me if I'm wrong, Mary, that when you connect the car and the OTA and the insights coming off the car, you're able to engage a consumer directly on insurance services through the car pretty much, right, as the car as both the actuary and the agent. Is that correct?

瑪麗，保險，你提到過，但如果你能給我們更多，我會很高興的。你在哪裡推出？有什麼關於錄取率的嗎？因為我在想，如果我錯了，請糾正我，瑪麗，當你連接汽車和 OTA 以及來自汽車的洞察力時，你可以通過汽車直接讓消費者參與保險服務很多，正確的，作為精算師和代理人的汽車。那是對的嗎？

Yes, Adam. First of all, hello there. And yes, I do think that you're thinking about it correctly. We can engage directly because you can't take ownership of vehicle...

是的，亞當。首先，你好。是的，我認為你的想法是正確的。我們可以直接參與，因為您不能擁有車輛...

Mary? Hello?

瑪麗？你好？

Yes. Can you hear me?

是的。你能聽到我嗎？

Sorry. Yes.

對不起。是的。

Okay, sorry. So as we look at insurance, first of all, it's going well. We're now in about 20 states. The ability to pull information off the vehicle to help inform rates is actually exceeding our expectations. And so -- and we're expanding. And as you mentioned, we -- a person cannot buy a vehicle without having proof of insurance. So we are right there able to offer it and not have to do a lot of the advertising that other insurance companies have to do. So we think we're well situated to disrupt auto insurance, and I'm very pleased with the way our rollout is progressing and we'll share more in October.

哦抱歉。所以當我們看保險時，首先，它進展順利。我們現在在大約 20 個州。從車輛中提取信息以幫助告知費率的能力實際上超出了我們的預期。所以 - 我們正在擴大。正如你所提到的，我們——一個人不能在沒有保險證明的情況下購買車輛。因此，我們可以提供它，而不必做很多其他保險公司必須做的廣告。因此，我們認為我們已經做好了顛覆汽車保險的準備，我對我們推出的方式感到非常滿意，我們將在 10 月份分享更多信息。

Great. Just one follow-up, again, on insurance. I think it's so interesting, where does that leave the dealer? Dealers make like almost $1,000 originating these policies, and I'm wondering if this opportunity to go direct or engage direct can help save -- can get some inefficiencies out and, I'd say, obviate the need to write this $1,000 check to a dealer that's just not necessary when the car is doing the work.

偉大的。再一次，關於保險的後續行動。我覺得這很有趣，這讓經銷商在哪裡？經銷商通過這些政策賺了近 1,000 美元，我想知道這個直接或直接參與的機會是否可以幫助節省 - 可以消除一些低效率，我想說的是，無需將這張 1,000 美元的支票寫給經銷商在汽車工作時就沒有必要了。

Adam, I'm not sure where you're getting this $1,000 check that's being written to the dealers. We do have some dealers that provide insurance companies in. But again, I would look at this as totally disrupting the way insurance is delivered to the customer. And again, I'm not -- I don't think the information on the $1,000 check written to the dealer is correct.

亞當，我不知道你從哪裡得到這張寫給經銷商的 1000 美元支票。我們確實有一些提供保險公司的經銷商。但是，我再次認為這完全破壞了向客戶提供保險的方式。再說一次，我不是——我認為寫給經銷商的 1,000 美元支票上的信息不正確。

Yes. Mary, this is Dan. Maybe I'll interject. The F&I that the dealer earns is more extended warranties gap, other traditional point-of-sale products. That F&I income typically doesn't include any commissions on private passenger insurance that we're talking about for OnStar. So this is totally separate than what the dealer already earns.

是的。瑪麗，這是丹。也許我會插話。經銷商獲得的 F&I 是更多的延長保修期，其他傳統的銷售點產品。 F&I 收入通常不包括我們為 OnStar 談論的私人乘客保險的任何佣金。因此，這與經銷商已經獲得的收入完全不同。

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自 Itay Michaeli 與 Citi 的對話。

Just to go back to the second half, just a couple of clarifications. First, are you able to share what you think your U.S. dealer inventory might come in by year-end but perhaps a range, just given the downtime in the second half? And then just to clarify on the pricing assumption for the second half, are you assuming some moderation versus H1 or maybe some other assumption there?

回到下半場，做一些澄清。首先，考慮到下半年的停工時間，您能否分享您認為美國經銷商庫存可能會在年底出現的情況，但可能是一個範圍？然後只是為了澄清下半年的定價假設，您是假設與 H1 相比有所緩和還是其他假設？

Itay, I'll take that. So we are expecting inventory to decline a little bit further off of these levels, just given where we are in production and the strong demand environment. And as we said in the earlier comments, I think pricing remains strong, both in terms of incentives but also in terms of the rich mix that customers are demanding right now. And we don't see anything in the short-run horizon that, that is going to disrupt that. And certainly, the, I think, lower inventories are going to support kind of the current pricing environment in the near term.

Itay，我會接受的。因此，鑑於我們的生產情況和強勁的需求環境，我們預計庫存將比這些水平進一步下降。正如我們在之前的評論中所說，我認為定價仍然很強勁，無論是在激勵方面，還是在客戶現在要求的豐富組合方面。而且我們在短期內看不到任何會破壞它的東西。當然，我認為，較低的庫存將在短期內支持當前的定價環境。

Great, that's helpful. And then my follow-up, maybe turning to Cruise. I think the release mentioned that they're making excellent progress towards commercializing it. Any additional call you can share in terms of the progress they've made? I think that the last data we all received were the California disengagement reports. Any additional color you can share in terms of the progress to date there?

太好了，這很有幫助。然後我的跟進，也許轉向克魯斯。我認為該版本提到他們在將其商業化方面取得了巨大進展。您可以就他們取得的進展分享任何其他電話嗎？我認為我們收到的最後一個數據是加州脫離接觸報告。關於迄今為止的進展，您可以分享任何其他顏色嗎？

We will share more at our Investor Day, and I'm excited to do that. But I would say I am having conversations with Dan on a weekly basis, and we continue to see very strong progress in the technology that they're doing and also readying the company from a commercialization perspective. And so again, I'll say no more than I reiterate, this is quarters away, not years away, and the technology is really progressing well.

我們將在投資者日分享更多信息，我很高興能這樣做。但我會說我每週都會與 Dan 進行對話，我們繼續看到他們正在做的技術取得了非常強勁的進展，並從商業化的角度為公司做好了準備。再說一次，我只想重申，這是幾個季度之後，而不是幾年之後，技術確實進展順利。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

I was hoping if you can give us a little bit more color around the expected cadence of the production outlook that's contemplated in your guidance. So North America production down about 100,000 units in the second half. Is it going to be -- how should we think about that sequentially versus sort of what we've seen in the second quarter? I think that some of the third-party estimates out there, at least for the industry, were assuming that the fourth quarter would come back to more normalized levels of industry production. Is that your view as well or are you assuming that some of the disruptions could continue for the rest of the year?

我希望您能在您的指導中設想的生產前景的預期節奏周圍給我們更多的色彩。因此，北美的產量在下半年減少了約 100,000 輛。是否會 - 我們應該如何考慮順序與我們在第二季度看到的那種情況？我認為，至少對於該行業而言，第三方的一些估計是假設第四季度將恢復到更正常的行業生產水平。這也是您的觀點，還是您假設某些中斷可能會持續到今年剩餘時間？

So Emmanuel, we -- I would say that it's -- the production rates are skewed higher as we get through the year. Some of the near-term issues that we've talked about with the short-term shutdowns of the truck plants and what we keep reiterating about semiconductors, I think it's a little bit of a different challenge than what we've seen before in just terms of broad semiconductor supply, it's about throughput, et cetera.

所以伊曼紐爾，我們——我會說是——隨著我們度過這一年，生產率偏高。我們談到的一些短期問題與卡車工廠的短期關閉以及我們不斷重申的半導體有關，我認為這與我們之前看到的挑戰有點不同就廣泛的半導體供應而言，它與吞吐量等有關。

So we have continued to believe that as we get into the fourth quarter, some of the underlying semiconductor challenges are going to start to abate. We don't know that it will be fully resolved then, but we're being cautious and we're seeing signs for improvement. And as we've said, you can see light at the end of the tunnel as we're getting towards that. So production rates naturally be higher in the fourth quarter than the third.

因此，我們繼續相信，隨著我們進入第四季度，一些潛在的半導體挑戰將開始減弱。我們不知道到時候它會完全解決，但我們很謹慎，我們看到了改善的跡象。正如我們所說，當我們朝著那個方向前進時，你可以在隧道盡頭看到光明。因此，第四季度的生產率自然高於第三季度。

Okay. And then another math question, if I may, around the second half guidance. I'm struggling to reconcile to the high end of your EBIT range. I think you did $8.5 billion of EBIT in the first half, second half implied guidance is $3 billion to $5 billion. But then you described sequential headwinds worth at least $3.5 billion and then also in volume, which could be another $1 billion headwind at least. So I guess, are there any positive offsets in that sequential walk that I should consider? Under what conditions could GM earn $5 billion in the second half?

好的。然後是另一個數學問題，如果可以的話，大約是下半年的指導。我正在努力適應你們 EBIT 範圍的高端。我認為你上半年的息稅前利潤為 85 億美元，下半年的隱含指導為 30 億至 50 億美元。但隨後您描述了價值至少 35 億美元的連續逆風，然後是數量上的逆風，這可能至少是另外 10 億美元的逆風。所以我想，在我應該考慮的連續步行中是否有任何積極的偏移？通用汽車下半年在什麼條件下可以賺到50億美元？

Well, I think as we highlighted, and I appreciate you going through that table, because as we highlighted the headwinds and that's in the investor deck, it's a $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion range. And I think to some of the earlier questions, if you take the ex-recall run rate off of that, the $9.7 billion , so you get to about the $5 billion second half to maybe a little bit higher than that. But that's where the production variability comes in and why we've been intentional about widening the range on that.

好吧，我認為正如我們強調的那樣，我很感謝你通過那張表格，因為當我們強調逆風時，這是投資者甲板上的一個 35 億美元到 45 億美元的範圍。我認為對於之前的一些問題，如果你把前召回運行率從 97 億美元中剔除，那麼下半年你會得到大約 50 億美元，可能會比這高一點。但這就是生產可變性的來源，也是我們有意擴大範圍的原因。

So what I would say is the upside could be the further improvement in consumer strength that we can capitalize on. And then is there an opportunity to outproduce the assumptions that are in our guidance? And that's going to be a function primarily of chip availability and COVID. So I just want to emphasize the caution that we're putting into that. And if the environment abates and this resolves quickly, then I would expect that we would outperform the midpoint.

因此，我想說的是，我們可以利用的消費者實力的進一步提高可能是有利的。然後有機會超越我們指導中的假設嗎？這將主要取決於芯片可用性和 COVID。因此，我只想強調我們對此的謹慎態度。如果環境減弱並且這種情況很快得到解決，那麼我預計我們的表現會超過中點。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

My question, which is on inflation. I realized you are facing and working to offset the impact of higher commodity costs, which are expected to be a considerable headwind in the back half, both year-over-year and sequentially versus the first half. But taking a step back, how do you think the company is positioned overall for inflation, including if it were to prove sustained or to track materially stronger? Do you think there's a scenario where you could actually stand to benefit from inflation applying broadly to your revenue but more selectively to your cost structure? So for example, like D&A won't go up medium term from inflation but instead only as you replace assets over time, right, and your substantial hourly labor costs in the U.S. were, in 2019, already agreed upon through 2023, so you shouldn't be seeing the same pressure from wage inflation that other companies are likely to see. Given all these, I'm curious if inflation could actually help margin, at least near to medium term as opposed to hurt margin. Can you help us think through this dynamic?

我的問題是關於通貨膨脹的。我意識到您正面臨並努力抵消較高的商品成本的影響，預計這將是下半年的一個相當大的逆風，無論是同比還是與上半年相比。但退一步說，您認為該公司總體上如何應對通脹，包括它是否被證明是持續的或大幅走強？您是否認為在這樣一種情況下，您實際上可以從廣泛應用於您的收入但更有選擇性地應用於您的成本結構的通貨膨脹中受益？因此，例如，像 D&A 不會因通貨膨脹而在中期上升，而是只會隨著時間的推移更換資產，對，而且你在美國的大量小時勞動力成本在 2019 年已經商定到 2023 年，所以你應該不會看到其他公司可能會看到的工資通脹壓力。鑑於所有這些，我很好奇通脹是否真的可以幫助利潤率，至少在中期附近，而不是損害利潤率。你能幫助我們思考這個動態嗎？

Well, I think you referenced a handful of areas where we won't be impacted by inflation. But I also think you have to look at, overall, the customer's ability to pay and what they're going to allocate from a discretionary perspective. And so I think that tends to put a cap on it. I would say we have an extremely strong portfolio out now and more very strong products coming. But I think you do have to always keep in mind overall affordability, and I think that might tap down any of that disproportionate opportunity for our industry.

好吧，我認為您提到了一些我們不會受到通貨膨脹影響的領域。但我也認為你必須從整體上看客戶的支付能力以及他們將從自由裁量的角度分配什麼。所以我認為這往往會限制它。我會說我們現在有一個非常強大的產品組合，而且還有更多非常強大的產品。但我認為你必須始終牢記整體可負擔性，我認為這可能會為我們的行業帶來任何不成比例的機會。

That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, could you remind us of what hedging strategies you may have or not have in place with regard to certain commodities, in particular, platinum group metals? I'm not advocating one approach over another. I realize one of your crosstown rivals has had a checkered experience there. But just curious what your approach is to this risk, and if you've changed your approach at all, given the current environment.

這很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，您能否提醒我們對於某些商品，特別是鉑族金屬，您可能有或沒有採用哪些對沖策略？我並不是在提倡一種方法而不是另一種方法。我意識到你的一個跨城競爭對手在那裡有過一段曲折的經歷。但只是好奇你對這種風險的處理方法是什麼，以及在當前環境下你是否改變了你的方法。

And then can you maybe talk to about like how your commodity exposures or risk could change over time as you shift away from internal combustion engines with catalytic converters toward battery electric vehicles with their own set of different commodity exposures?

然後，當您從帶有催化轉換器的內燃機轉向擁有自己的一組不同商品風險的電池電動汽車時，您能否談談您的商品風險敞口或風險如何隨時間變化？

So I'll take the second half and I'll let Paul answer the specific on the hedging. But I think if you look to the comments that I made that we're looking not only for semiconductors but for other critical minerals and other critical materials that we need for our battery strategy to have long-term supply, whether it's investment that we make, partnerships we do or supply agreements. And so I think when you look at that, along with the fact that some of these material or precious metals, we're looking to reduce our need for them with the technology, specifically the chemistry in the battery. So I think we're looking to manage that very carefully as we accelerate the move to EVs. And then for the hedge, I'll turn to you, Paul.

所以我會在下半場讓保羅回答關於對沖的具體問題。但我認為，如果你看一下我發表的評論，我們不僅在尋找半導體，而且還在尋找其他關鍵礦物和其他關鍵材料，我們的電池戰略需要這些材料才能實現長期供應，無論是我們進行的投資，我們的合作夥伴關係或供應協議。所以我認為當你看到這一點時，連同其中一些材料或貴金屬這一事實，我們正在尋求通過技術減少對它們的需求，特別是電池中的化學成分。因此，我認為我們正在尋求非常謹慎地管理這一點，因為我們加快了向電動汽車的轉變。然後對於樹籬，我會求助於你，保羅。

Yes. I mean, on the hedging, we use some options just mainly as sort of a cheaper insurance against large moves. We also just have some embedded price sharing mechanisms in the supply chain agreements themselves, whether it's averaging, et cetera. So we try to manage that holistically. I don't think we're overreacting to that because, look, materials inflation is just an underlying cost to the business, and we have to make sure that we can take the steps necessary.

是的。我的意思是，在對沖時，我們主要使用一些期權作為一種更便宜的保險來應對大動作。我們也只是在供應鏈協議本身中嵌入了一些價格共享機制，無論是平均價格等等。因此，我們嘗試從整體上進行管理。我不認為我們對此反應過度，因為，看，材料通脹只是企業的潛在成本，我們必須確保我們可以採取必要的步驟。

So for example, the engineering team is always looking at ways to reduce material spend, drive efficiencies into the business, et cetera. And that's the most basic, most important hedge because it results in a permanent savings within the business. So I don't want to rely too much on sort of financial derivatives to delay or defer a problem that we need to be solving over the long term anyway.

例如，工程團隊一直在尋找減少材料支出、提高業務效率等的方法。這是最基本、最重要的對沖，因為它可以為企業帶來永久性的節省。因此，我不想過分依賴某種金融衍生品來延遲或推遲我們需要長期解決的問題。

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

This is Aileen Smith on for John. I appreciate you getting us in here at the last minute. I wanted to follow up, I think, to Rod's question on the cost side of what current cost dynamics we should be assuming as persisting into next year versus resolving. We've heard from some suppliers this quarter that they've been somewhat successful in securing spot purchases of semiconductors so as not to impact their automaker customers, and in those cases, that automakers have been fairly receptive to absorbing or sharing that excess cost on semis.

這是約翰的艾琳史密斯。感謝您在最後一刻讓我們來到這裡。我想，我想跟進羅德關於成本方面的問題，即我們應該假設當前的成本動態是持續到明年而不是解決。我們從本季度的一些供應商那裡聽說，他們在確保半導體現貨採購方面取得了一定的成功，以免影響他們的汽車製造商客戶，在這些情況下，汽車製造商相當願意吸收或分攤多餘的成本半決賽

Is this consistent with how you've been working with your suppliers in taking on a bit more of that cost? And do you have any estimate what that might have been in the quarter in terms of incremental material or component costs? Just trying to get a sense of how these costs might abate at the same time that volumes come back and you get the benefit of operating leverage.

這與您與供應商合作承擔更多成本的方式一致嗎？您對本季度增加的材料或組件成本有什麼估計嗎？只是想了解這些成本如何在交易量回升的同時降低，您可以獲得運營槓桿的好處。

Well, I certainly think that there are short-term supply and demand implications out there to everything that's going on, and that doesn't surprise me about the spot market as well. But what I would say is that the -- when you look at the overall cost of the vehicle, the chips are a small, small piece of that. So I don't see it as anything very material for us. And I don't want to get into any details of how we're managing tactically to get through this other than to say that the partnership with our supply chain up and down through all of our tiers and our global supply chain function as well as our engineering and manufacturing, I believe we're the best in the business at this. And you see that in the production results and the ability for us to keep the plants running as successful as we have throughout the year.

嗯，我當然認為對正在發生的一切都有短期的供需影響，這對現貨市場也並不讓我感到驚訝。但我要說的是——當你查看車輛的總體成本時，芯片只是其中的一小部分。所以我不認為它對我們來說非常重要。我不想詳細說明我們如何在戰術上進行管理以度過難關，只想說與我們供應鏈的合作夥伴關係貫穿我們所有的層級和我們的全球供應鏈職能以及我們的工程和製造，我相信我們在這方面是業內最好的。您可以從生產結果和我們保持工廠全年成功運行的能力中看到這一點。

Okay, that's helpful. And then I wanted to follow up on Mary's answer to an earlier question on the EV and AV spending target of $35 billion. First, as a clarification, is it fair to pull out our rulers when we look at that pie chart on Slide 5 and say 1/3 of it appears to be R&D and engineering expenses versus 2/3 maybe more CapEx-related? And more specifically, as we compare the $35 billion target to the prior $27 billion one that was as of last year, that increase is also largely a function of CapEx towards cell and vehicle plants rather than what you see as being any major incremental investment on R&D, whether on the technology or product side to commercialize EVs and AVs.

好的，這很有幫助。然後我想跟進瑪麗對先前關於 350 億美元電動汽車和 AV 支出目標的問題的回答。首先，作為澄清，當我們查看幻燈片 5 上的餅圖並說其中 1/3 似乎是研發和工程費用而 2/3 可能更多與資本支出相關時，拔出我們的標尺是否公平？更具體地說，當我們將 350 億美元的目標與去年的 270 億美元目標進行比較時，這一增長在很大程度上也是對電池和汽車工廠的資本支出的函數，而不是您認為的任何重大增量投資研發，無論是在技術還是產品方面，以將電動汽車和 AV 商業化。

No, I wouldn't say that. I think we increased it and we said it covers both capital and engineering. And it probably wouldn't -- I mean, it's -- I would say the chart is directionally correct. I think you shouldn't pull out your ruler. But we're moving all aspects of it for whether it's the battery plants that we've talked about, capital to increase the offerings that we'll have and then actual engineering on the products themselves, along with continuing to support Cruise. So it's -- the chart is accurate in how we're spending across all of those.

不，我不會這麼說。我認為我們增加了它，我們說它涵蓋了資本和工程。它可能不會 - 我的意思是，它是 - 我會說圖表在方向上是正確的。我認為你不應該拔出你的尺子。但是我們正在移動它的各個方面，無論是我們討論過的電池工廠，增加我們將擁有的產品的資本，然後是產品本身的實際工程，以及繼續支持 Cruise。所以它 - 圖表準確地反映了我們在所有這些方面的支出方式。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for closing comments. .

我現在想把電話轉給 Mary Barra 來結束評論。 .

Well, thanks, everybody. We really appreciate your questions and for participating today. I want to step back and say, when we look at our team's dedication to everything that we have been working to offset and accelerate, we are building a stronger and a better future for our company and for our stakeholders and for the communities in which we live and work.

嗯，謝謝大家。我們非常感謝您的提問和今天的參與。我想退一步說，當我們看到我們的團隊對我們一直在努力抵消和加速的一切的奉獻時，我們正在為我們的公司、我們的利益相關者和我們所在的社區建設一個更強大、更美好的未來生活和工作。

By exceeding our business targets, we have the resources to move more quickly toward creating an all-EV future and all-AV future. And when you look at the combination of our Ultium battery platforms, our Hydrotec platforms for fuel cells, as well as our software and platform that we've named Ultifi, we really think that we have a strategy that will allow us to drive higher revenue, operating efficiencies and improved and outstanding customer experience.

通過超越我們的業務目標，我們擁有了更快地邁向創造全電動汽車和全AV未來的資源。當您查看我們的 Ultium 電池平台、用於燃料電池的 Hydrotec 平台以及我們命名為 Ultifi 的軟件和平台的組合時，我們真的認為我們的戰略將使我們能夠推動更高的收入，運營效率和改善和出色的客戶體驗。

When you look at Ultium, it does deliver better performance range, and then it gives us flexibility and scalability that is going to allow us to accelerate the EVs that we're going to put into market across the entire portfolio. And the work that we'll share more of what we're doing to continue to improve battery costs will also allow us to open up into not only more segments but also markets outside the auto industry.

當您查看 Ultium 時，它確實提供了更好的性能範圍，然後它為我們提供了靈活性和可擴展性，這將使我們能夠加速我們將在整個產品組合中投放市場的電動汽車。我們將分享更多我們正在做的工作以繼續降低電池成本，這也將使我們不僅能夠開拓更多的細分市場，還能夠開拓汽車行業以外的市場。

And then when you think about, from a software perspective, the strength that we have of OnStar, our ability to do over-the-year updates and the work that we have from a processing power perspective in the vehicle as well as the cybersecurity perspective, we think we have an ecosystem that will increase and build on the leading loyalty that we have will allow us to provide unmatched personalization. We'll expand features, like we've already talked about, with Super Cruise and really create new connected services.

然後，當您從軟件的角度考慮我們在 OnStar 的實力、我們進行年度更新的能力以及我們從車輛處理能力的角度以及網絡安全的角度所做的工作時，我們認為我們的生態系統將增加並建立在我們擁有的領先忠誠度之上，這將使我們能夠提供無與倫比的個性化。正如我們已經談到的那樣，我們將通過 Super Cruise 擴展功能並真正創建新的連接服務。

So I couldn't be more excited about the future of the business and the opportunities that we have for growth and margin expansion when we look at all these different businesses. So we look forward to hosting you in October, and we truly believe you will experience this future for yourselves. So thanks, everybody, again, for your time, and please stay safe.

因此，當我們審視所有這些不同的業務時，我對業務的未來以及我們所擁有的增長和利潤率擴張機會感到無比興奮。因此，我們期待在 10 月份接待您，我們堅信您將親身體驗這個未來。所以，再次感謝大家的時間，請注意安全。

That concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for joining.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。