通用汽車 (GM) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to General Motors Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

早上好，歡迎參加通用汽車 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, October 27, 2021.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製，時間為 2021 年 10 月 27 日，星期三。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Rocky Gupta, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Rocky Gupta。

Thanks, Tammy.

謝謝，塔米。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the third quarter of 2021.

早上好，感謝您加入我們，共同審查通用汽車 2021 年第三季度的財務業績。

Our conference call materials were issued this morning and are available on the GM Investor Relations website.

我們的電話會議材料於今天上午發布，可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上查閱。

We're also broadcasting this call via webcast.

我們還通過網絡廣播廣播這個電話。

I'm joined today by Mary Barra, GM's Chairman and CEO; Paul Jacobson, GM's CFO; and Dan Berce, President of GM Financial.

今天，通用汽車董事長兼首席執行官瑪麗·巴拉 (Mary Barra) 加入了我的行列。通用汽車首席財務官 Paul Jacobson；和通用汽車金融總裁丹·伯斯。

Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of the chart set.

在我們開始之前，我想請您注意圖表集第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。

The content of our call will be governed by this language.

我們的通話內容將受此語言約束。

I will now turn the call over to Mary Barra.

我現在將把電話轉給 Mary Barra。

Thanks, Rocky, and hello, everyone.

謝謝，洛基，大家好。

It's great to have an opportunity to talk with you all again today.

很高興今天有機會再次與大家交流。

Before Paul and I discuss our third quarter results, I want to thank all of you who participated in person or remotely in our recent Investor Day.

在保羅和我討論我們的第三季度業績之前，我要感謝所有親自或遠程參與我們最近的投資者日的人。

Our team really appreciated the opportunity to deep dive our growth strategy and to hear your perspectives.

我們的團隊非常感謝有機會深入探討我們的增長戰略並聽取您的觀點。

After spending time with our leaders and subject matter experts, I hope it's clear to you that we have assembled the right technology to have the right platforms, and we have the right talent to achieve our long-term goals, including doubling our annual revenue and expanding our margins.

在與我們的領導和主題專家共度時光後，我希望您清楚我們已經組裝了正確的技術來擁有正確的平台，並且我們擁有合適的人才來實現我們的長期目標，包括將我們的年收入和擴大我們的利潤。

Our confidence comes from the fact that we are already making significant progress in transforming GM from a traditional automaker to really a platform innovator.

我們的信心來自這樣一個事實，即我們已經在將通用汽車從傳統汽車製造商轉變為真正的平台創新者方面取得了重大進展。

You can see it in the conversion of the Orion Assembly and Factory ZERO plants as they've gone from building gas-powered cars to EVs, the construction of our Ultium Cell JV plant, the rapid expansion of Super Cruise, the development of Level 2 plus autonomy with Ultra Cruise, the lead Cruise has in Level 4 autonomous driving, and our portfolio of 20 start-up businesses.

你可以從 Orion Assembly 和 Factory ZERO 工廠的轉換中看到它，因為它們已經從製造燃氣動力汽車到電動汽車，我們的 Ultium Cell 合資工廠的建設，Super Cruise 的快速擴張，Level 2 的開發加上 Ultra Cruise 的自主性，Cruise 在 4 級自動駕駛方面的領先地位，以及我們的 20 家初創企業組合。

You can also experience it in the software and services that will enhance our customers' lives and drive growth.

您還可以在將改善我們客戶的生活並推動增長的軟件和服務中體驗它。

And you can see it in our talent and expertise.

您可以從我們的才能和專業知識中看到這一點。

This includes the new digital business team that we formed to establish digital market leadership for GM and our expanded Board of Directors who have deep experience in IT, e-commerce, software development, venture capital, cybersecurity and more.

這包括我們為為通用汽車建立數字市場領導地位而組建的新數字業務團隊以及我們擴大的董事會，他們在 IT、電子商務、軟件開發、風險投資、網絡安全等方面擁有豐富的經驗。

As one of you observed, the real magic happens in our vehicles at the intersection of the Ultium and Ultifi platforms.

正如你們中的一位所觀察到的，真正的魔力發生在我們的車輛中，位於 Ultium 和 Ultifi 平台的交匯處。

Ultium enables us to efficiently deliver the industry's broadest portfolio of EVs, including a diverse portfolio of truck entries.

Ultium 使我們能夠有效地交付業界最廣泛的電動汽車產品組合，包括多樣化的卡車產品組合。

And the beauty of Ultifi is the way it will allow us to deploy new software and services rapidly and securely across our entire fleet.

Ultifi 的美妙之處在於它允許我們在整個車隊中快速、安全地部署新軟件和服務。

This includes Super Cruise upgrades and services we'll create in the future.

這包括我們將在未來創建的 Super Cruise 升級和服務。

And seeing is believing.

眼見為實。

I have to tell you, I will never forget the overwhelmingly positive reaction that people had after they experienced Super Cruise or had an opportunity to ride in the GMC HUMMER EV and experienced Watts to Freedom for the very first time.

我必須告訴你，我永遠不會忘記人們在體驗 Super Cruise 或有機會騎上 GMC HUMMER EV 並第一次體驗 Watts to Freedom 後的積極反應。

The same can be said for the Cadillac LYRIQ that we'll begin delivering to customers next spring.

對於我們將於明年春天開始向客戶交付的凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 也是如此。

They were spoken for in just about 10 minutes after we opened the reservation site, so I think that starts to show the strong demand that we will see for the LYRIQ.

在我們打開預訂網站大約 10 分鐘後，他們就被說了出來，所以我認為這開始表明我們將看到對 LYRIQ 的強勁需求。

Our next EV reveal will be the Chevrolet Silverado EV, and I can tell you the truck is amazing.

我們的下一個電動車展示將是雪佛蘭 Silverado 電動車，我可以告訴你這輛卡車很棒。

Our dealers love it, and so you won't want to miss it when we take the cover off at CES in early January.

我們的經銷商很喜歡它，所以當我們在一月初的 CES 上揭開封面時，您不會想錯過它。

It will evoke passion and enthusiasm through great design and engineering, and we believe it will drive mass adoption of electric vehicles, specifically trucks.

它將通過出色的設計和工程喚起激情和熱情，我們相信它將推動電動汽車，特別是卡車的大規模採用。

And I promise you that the capabilities of Ultium and Ultifi will be just as evident in mass market vehicles like the $30,000 Chevrolet EV crossover, which we showed.

我向您保證，Ultium 和 Ultifi 的功能將在大眾市場車輛中同樣明顯，例如我們展示的 30,000 美元的雪佛蘭 EV 跨界車。

And as Mark shared, we're also working on another EV that's even more affordable than that.

正如馬克所分享的，我們還在開發另一款比這更實惠的電動汽車。

So to be clear, we will also continue to improve the successful ICE vehicles that are funding our future, and we'll do that while improving them to reduce emissions and also offer new technologies.

因此，需要明確的是，我們還將繼續改進為我們的未來提供資金的成功 ICE 車輛，我們將在改進它們以減少排放並提供新技術的同時做到這一點。

Our plan provides resources to [main] leadership in key segments like trucks and SUVs during and after the transition to electric vehicles.

我們的計劃在向電動汽車過渡期間和之後為卡車和 SUV 等關鍵領域的 [主要] 領導層提供資源。

And although it's only been about 3 weeks since Investor Day, the strategies and initiatives we talked about have advanced even further.

儘管距離投資者日只有大約 3 週的時間，但我們談到的戰略和舉措已經取得了進一步的進展。

Let's talk first about our work to build a strong and secure battery supply chain in North America.

讓我們先談談我們在北美建立強大而安全的電池供應鏈的工作。

We've established and announced 4 major supply chain initiatives recently, and we expect to add more soon to support our growth, our performance and our cost reduction plans.

我們最近建立並宣布了 4 項主要的供應鏈計劃，我們預計很快會增加更多計劃，以支持我們的增長、業績和降低成本的計劃。

And our goal is to eliminate supply chain risk that -- and control our own destiny as we rapidly scale our EV volume.

我們的目標是消除供應鏈風險——並在我們迅速擴大電動汽車數量時控制我們自己的命運。

A common thread that runs through these and our recent announcement is a clear commitment to U.S. leadership in EVs.

貫穿這些和我們最近宣布的一個共同點是明確承諾美國在電動汽車領域的領導地位。

For example, we will add 2 more battery plants in the U.S. by mid-decade.

例如，到 10 年中期，我們將在美國再增加 2 家電池廠。

We also have plans to build EV motors and another EV truck facility here in the U.S. We look forward to sharing the details very soon, but keep in mind this is just the beginning.

我們還計劃在美國建造 EV 電機和另一個 EV 卡車設施。我們期待很快分享詳細信息，但請記住，這僅僅是開始。

As Gerald said at Investor Day, we forecast that North American EV assembly capacity will reach 20% by 2025 and climb to 50% by 2030.

正如杰拉德在投資者日上所說，我們預測北美電動汽車組裝能力到 2025 年將達到 20%，到 2030 年將攀升至 50%。

We're also bringing Ultium to China, starting with the LYRIQ, which is launching in early 2022.

我們還將 Ultium 引入中國，從 2022 年初推出的 LYRIQ 開始。

And GM China also recently announced it's doubling the size of its Advanced Design Center to support EV development.

通用汽車中國最近還宣布將其先進設計中心的規模擴大一倍，以支持電動汽車的開發。

Cruise is the second opportunity that I want to highlight.

克魯斯是我要強調的第二個機會。

As you know, we have always gated the progress of Cruise by safety.

如您所知，我們一直以安全的方式控制 Cruise 的進展。

As we speak, Cruise is just 1 state-level approval away from full regulatory approval to charge customers for rides in San Francisco.

正如我們所說，Cruise 距離完全監管批准向客戶收取舊金山遊樂設施的費用只有 1 個州級批准。

And it is still the only company with a permit to provide full driverless ride-hail service in the city.

它仍然是該市唯一一家獲准提供全程無人駕駛網約車服務的公司。

As Cruise CEO Dan Ammann said, the complementary skills of GM and Cruise have brought it to the cusp of commercialization.

正如 Cruise 的 CEO Dan Ammann 所說，通用和 Cruise 的互補技能將其帶到了商業化的風口浪尖。

This includes the launch of the Cruise Origin that will be produced at Factory ZERO, and we have already built dozens of engineering development vehicles like the ones you saw during Investor Day.

這包括將在零工廠生產的 Cruise Origin 的推出，我們已經製造了數十種工程開發車輛，就像您在投資者日看到的那樣。

All of this is why joining Cruise is so high among experts in artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics, and why Cruise is hosting another series of virtual recruiting events called Under the Hood on November 4. If you'd like to participate, please contact GM Investor Relations.

這就是為什麼在人工智能、機器學習和機器人技術專家中加入 Cruise 的人數如此之多，以及為什麼 Cruise 將於 11 月 4 日舉辦另一系列名為 Under the Hood 的虛擬招聘活動。如果您想參加，請聯繫通用汽車投資者關係。

Now let's turn to earnings.

現在讓我們轉向收益。

As we have shared before, we are taking advantage of GM's strong cash flow to fund our investments in growth.

正如我們之前所分享的，我們正在利用通用汽車強勁的現金流來為我們的增長投資提供資金。

Our third quarter results, which while reflecting the near-term challenges of the global semiconductor supply chain issues, clearly shows the strength of our underlying business.

我們的第三季度業績雖然反映了全球半導體供應鏈問題的近期挑戰，但清楚地顯示了我們基礎業務的實力。

We reported EBIT-adjusted of $2.9 billion, which includes another strong performance by GM Financial and our joint ventures in China as well as a recall cost settlement with LG.

我們報告了 29 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，其中包括 GM Financial 和我們在中國的合資企業的另一項強勁表現，以及與 LG 的召回成本結算。

LG has been and continues to be a very valued and respected partner, and we are working closely with them to deliver replacement battery modules for our customers.

LG 一直是並將繼續是一個非常有價值和受人尊敬的合作夥伴，我們正在與他們密切合作，為我們的客戶提供更換電池模塊。

In fact, we began scheduling and completing repairs this month.

事實上，我們本月開始安排和完成維修。

While the semiconductor situation improves, I believe our full year performance will be strong from an earnings perspective and far ahead of where we expected to be at the beginning of the year.

雖然半導體形勢有所改善，但我相信從盈利角度來看，我們的全年業績將強勁，並且遠遠超過我們在年初的預期。

And most importantly, as we manage this dynamic environment, our clear focus is on transforming GM.

最重要的是，在我們管理這種動態環境時，我們的明確重點是改造通用汽車。

Now I'm going to turn the call over to Paul, who will share more about the quarter and our outlook.

現在我將把電話轉給保羅，他將分享更多關於本季度和我們的前景的信息。

Thank you, Mary, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，瑪麗，大家早上好。

We appreciate you taking the time to join us.

感謝您抽出寶貴時間加入我們。

We outlined our long-term strategy earlier this month, including the opportunity to double our revenues and expand margins by 2030.

本月早些時候，我們概述了我們的長期戰略，包括到 2030 年將收入翻番和擴大利潤率的機會。

We believe that the strength of our underlying business today is a crucial element to delivering on that growth, and I'm proud of the execution by our team during the quarter in the face of continued challenges.

我們相信，我們今天基礎業務的實力是實現這一增長的關鍵因素，我為我們團隊在本季度面對持續挑戰的執行感到自豪。

So let's get into the results of the quarter in more detail.

因此，讓我們更詳細地了解本季度的結果。

In Q3, we generated $26.8 billion in net revenue, $2.9 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 10.9% EBIT-adjusted margin and $1.52 in EPS-diluted-adjusted.

在第三季度，我們產生了 268 億美元的淨收入，29 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，10.9% 的息稅前利潤率和 1.52 美元的稀釋調整後每股收益。

Adjusted automotive free cash flow was negative $4.4 billion during the quarter due to higher work-in-process inventory related to vehicles produced without certain modules and working capital impacts from plant downtime and lower production levels as a result of the ongoing semiconductor shortage.

本季度調整後的汽車自由現金流為負 44 億美元，原因是未使用某些模塊生產的車輛相關的在製品庫存增加，以及工廠停工對營運資金的影響，以及持續的半導體短缺導致生產水平下降。

We expect the impact on working capital to unwind, contributing to positive cash flow as production increases and vehicles build without the modules are completed and wholesaled.

我們預計對營運資本的影響將會緩解，隨著產量的增加和沒有模塊的車輛的完成和批發，有助於產生正現金流。

We realized strong price and mix performance in North America again through our production prioritization actions and our go-to-market strategies.

通過我們的生產優先行動和進入市場的策略，我們再次在北美實現了強勁的價格和組合表現。

Additionally, used vehicle prices drove continued excellent results at GM Financial.

此外，二手車價格推動通用汽車金融公司繼續取得優異成績。

In the quarter, we also reached an agreement with LG to substantially recover the cost of the recall.

本季度，我們還與 LG 達成協議，大幅收回召回成本。

The pretax impact to the quarter of this recovery agreement and associated recall was $700 million.

該回收協議和相關召回對本季度的稅前影響為 7 億美元。

So let's take a closer look at North America.

因此，讓我們仔細看看北美。

In Q3, North America delivered EBIT-adjusted of $2.1 billion with continued strong pricing on our full-size pickups and SUVs and the recovery agreement with LG.

在第三季度，北美實現了 21 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，我們的全尺寸皮卡和 SUV 的定價持續強勁，並與 LG 達成了復甦協議。

We generated a 10.3% EBIT-adjusted margin in the region.

我們在該地區產生了 10.3% 的 EBIT 調整後利潤率。

From a pricing standpoint, we're continuing to see high customer demand for our products and limited dealer inventory, which is driving strong transaction prices and lower incentive spend.

從定價的角度來看，我們繼續看到客戶對我們產品的高需求和有限的經銷商庫存，這推動了強勁的交易價格和較低的激勵支出。

In the quarter, our incentive spend as a percentage of ATP fell to 4.6%, 7.4 percentage points below Q3 2020.

本季度，我們的激勵支出佔 ATP 的百分比降至 4.6%，比 2020 年第三季度低 7.4 個百分點。

And even with these ATPs, we are growing or maintaining share in key segments.

即使有了這些 ATP，我們也在增長或保持在關鍵領域的份額。

For example, almost 7 out of every 10 customers in the full-size SUV segment purchased a Tahoe, Suburban or Yukon.

例如，在全尺寸 SUV 細分市場中，每 10 名客戶中就有近 7 名購買了 Tahoe、Suburban 或 Yukon。

The Escalade remains the best-selling large luxury SUV by a significant margin.

Escalade 仍然是最暢銷的大型豪華 SUV，遙遙領先。

That said, our overall volume and inventories remain low, which is impacting total market share in the region.

也就是說，我們的整體數量和庫存仍然很低，這正在影響該地區的總市場份額。

We ended the quarter with approximately 129,000 units in U.S. dealer inventory.

我們在本季度末的美國經銷商庫存中約有 129,000 台。

We foresee low inventories and strong pricing continuing well into next year even as production volumes are expected to increase.

我們預計低庫存和強勁的定價將持續到明年，即使產量預計會增加。

Let's move to GM International.

讓我們轉向通用汽車國際。

GMI EBIT-adjusted was $200 million, up $200 million year-over-year as we experienced positive price and mix benefits across the segment.

GMI 調整後的息稅前利潤為 2 億美元，同比增長 2 億美元，因為我們在整個細分市場都獲得了積極的價格和組合收益。

China equity income was $300 million in the quarter despite the semiconductor impacts due to continued strong mix, stabilization in pricing and material cost performance.

儘管由於持續強勁的組合、價格穩定和材料成本表現而受到半導體影響，本季度中國股票收入為 3 億美元。

GMI, excluding China equity income, has made substantial progress toward breakeven despite the impact of semiconductors, reinforcing the structural progress on our path to sustainable profitability and cash flow.

儘管受到半導體的影響，GMI（不包括中國股票收入）在收支平衡方面取得了實質性進展，加強了我們在實現可持續盈利能力和現金流的道路上的結構性進展。

A few comments on GM Financial, Cruise and Corporate segments.

關於通用汽車金融、郵輪和企業部門的一些評論。

GM Financial has continued its record-setting pace with Q3 EBT-adjusted of $1.1 billion as used vehicle prices and favorable consumer credit trends continue.

隨著二手車價格和有利的消費信貸趨勢的持續，通用金融繼續其創紀錄的步伐，第三季度 EBT 調整後為 11 億美元。

We've received $1.8 billion in dividends from GM Financial year-to-date, and we anticipate additional dividends to be paid in the fourth quarter.

年初至今，我們已經從通用汽車金融公司獲得了 18 億美元的股息，我們預計第四季度將支付額外的股息。

Cruise losses in the quarter were $300 million and Corp EBIT was a loss of $200 million, in line with our run rate estimates of general and administrative costs, including investments in growth and our new businesses.

本季度郵輪虧損為 3 億美元，企業息稅前利潤為 2 億美元，符合我們對一般和管理成本的運行率估計，包括對增長和新業務的投資。

Let's turn to the outlook for the rest of the year.

讓我們轉向今年剩餘時間的展望。

Despite some ongoing volatility in the supply chain, which our teams continue to work to mitigate, we expect sequentially higher volumes in Q4.

儘管我們的團隊繼續努力緩解供應鏈中的一些持續波動，但我們預計第四季度的銷量將連續增加。

We also expect costs from commodities and logistics to increase along with investments in our growth initiatives.

我們還預計商品和物流成本將隨著對我們增長計劃的投資而增加。

I want to make sure that we clearly articulate how we are performing relative to the guidance we have in the market.

我想確保我們清楚地闡明相對於我們在市場上的指導，我們的表現如何。

As you recall, we began the year with a guided range of $10 billion to $11 billion of EBIT-adjusted and provided updated full year EBIT-adjusted guidance at Q2 earnings of $11.5 billion to $13.5 billion.

您還記得，我們年初的指導範圍為 100 億美元至 110 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，並在第二季度的收益為 115 億美元至 135 億美元時提供了更新的全年息稅前利潤調整後的指導。

We now expect to achieve EBIT-adjusted approaching the high end of that range.

我們現在期望實現 EBIT 調整後接近該範圍的高端。

Our EPS-diluted-adjusted range will increase to $5.70 to $6.70, driven by a revised full year effective tax rate due to favorable tax determinations and a mix of global earnings.

由於有利的稅收決定和全球收益的混合，我們的每股收益稀釋調整範圍將增加到 5.70 美元至 6.70 美元，這是由修訂的全年有效稅率推動的。

We also expect to achieve EPS-diluted-adjusted approaching the high end of that range.

我們還期望實現每股收益稀釋調整後接近該範圍的高端。

Now I will provide an update on our capital spending, including investments in our Ultium JVs.

現在，我將提供有關我們資本支出的最新信息，包括對 Ultium 合資企業的投資。

We now expect spend to be in the $8 billion to $9 billion range this year, slightly below the $9 billion to $10 billion range we previously provided.

我們現在預計今年的支出將在 80 億至 90 億美元之間，略低於我們之前提供的 90 億至 100 億美元的範圍。

This decrease is a result of both innovative work by our team to reduce required capital investment while maintaining the schedule on our upcoming product programs as well as certain timing of invoices that will shift into early '22.

這一減少是我們團隊創新工作的結果，以減少所需的資本投資，同時保持我們即將推出的產品計劃的時間表，以及將轉移到 22 年初的某些發票時間。

Adjusted automotive free cash flow for the year is expected to be approximately $1 billion.

今年調整後的汽車自由現金流預計約為 10 億美元。

Note that this guidance now includes the impact of remaining work-in-process inventory related to vehicles produced without certain modules at the end of the year.

請注意，該指南現在包括與年底生產的沒有某些模塊的車輛相關的剩餘在製品庫存的影響。

Through the fourth quarter, we expect to clear the majority of our work-in-process inventory but anticipate some inventory will remain at year-end.

到第四季度，我們預計將清理大部分在製品庫存，但預計一些庫存將在年底保留。

As we've indicated, these units will provide additional cash flow in the first half of 2022 as we wholesale the vehicles.

正如我們所指出的，隨著我們批發車輛，這些單位將在 2022 年上半年提供額外的現金流。

To close, we're at an inflection point for GM and we're focused on new metrics and KPIs as we progress on this journey.

最後，我們正處於通用汽車的轉折點，隨著我們在這一旅程中取得進展，我們專注於新的指標和 KPI。

We plan to begin to provide some interim milestones and KPIs that we will use to benchmark our performance relative to the growth plan that we laid out at our investor event.

我們計劃開始提供一些臨時里程碑和 KPI，我們將使用它們來衡量我們相對於我們在投資者活動中製定的增長計劃的績效。

We look forward to sharing that with you in the coming months.

我們期待在接下來的幾個月中與您分享。

As we execute on our growth plan, we will maintain the strong business we have today and these results demonstrate that.

當我們執行我們的增長計劃時，我們將保持我們今天擁有的強勁業務，這些結果證明了這一點。

This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的開場評論到此結束，我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

First, just a question on the pace of volume recovery.

首先，只是關於量恢復速度的問題。

Can you just tell us, do you have any risk from the emerging magnesium shortage?

您能告訴我們，新興的鎂短缺會給您帶來任何風險嗎？

And then maybe you could just tell us your expectations on what the pace of improvement is in volumes, what the baseline expectation is for when the supply shortages will be fully mitigated, just the shape of recovery.

然後也許你可以告訴我們你對數量改善速度的預期，對供應短缺何時完全緩解的基線預期是什麼，以及復甦的形式。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Dan.

謝謝，丹。

And related to the Chinese magnesium shortages, while we do think there is some near-term price escalation risk, we do not see it as a significant supply risk or a constraint for our North America operations.

與中國鎂短缺有關，雖然我們確實認為存在一些近期價格上漲的風險，但我們並不認為這是重大的供應風險或對我們北美業務的限制。

The aluminum alloys we purchased have a very small percent of magnesium, and nearly all of our aluminum is domestically sourced.

我們購買的鋁合金中鎂含量非常低，而且我們幾乎所有的鋁都是在國內採購的。

So we are working with our supply base and we continue to monitor the situation.

因此，我們正在與我們的供應基地合作，並繼續監控情況。

We'll take appropriate mitigation steps if needed, but that's our view right now.

如果需要，我們將採取適當的緩解措施，但這是我們現在的看法。

And Paul, I'll let you talk volumes.

還有保羅，我會讓你說很多。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Dan, thanks for your question.

丹，謝謝你的提問。

So when we outlined the second half trajectory on volume, we said that we expected it to be down approximately 200,000 units second half to first half, with the majority of that occurring in Q3.

因此，當我們概述下半年的銷量軌跡時，我們說我們預計下半年到上半年將下降約 200,000 台，其中大部分發生在第三季度。

That's certainly what we have seen.

這當然是我們所看到的。

So we expect a pretty sizable step-up in volume sequentially from Q3 into Q4.

因此，我們預計從第三季度到第四季度的交易量會出現相當大的增長。

That being said, when we look at Q4 volumes, they look more like what we kind of saw volumes in the second quarter, but we have significant sort of additional cost pressures that we've seen, most of which relate to either commodity inflation or, more importantly, investments that we're making in the growth side of the business and in our manufacturing facilities as well.

話雖如此，當我們查看第四季度的銷量時，它們看起來更像我們在第二季度看到的銷量，但我們已經看到了巨大的額外成本壓力，其中大部分與商品通脹或，更重要的是，我們在業務增長方面以及我們的製造設施方面進行的投資。

So volume is certainly recovering off of where we were in Q3, which is consistent with what we said.

因此，交易量肯定會從我們在第三季度的水平回升，這與我們所說的一致。

And we would hope to see that and expect to see that as we go through 2022.

我們希望看到這一點，並期待在我們度過 2022 年時看到這一點。

Okay.

好的。

So continued improvement through 2022, it sounds like.

所以到 2022 年繼續改進，聽起來像是。

There's just a sequential -- you'll have ongoing sequential improvement.

這只是一個順序 - 你將有持續的順序改進。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is, I want to draw -- a question on EV margin.

我的第二個問題是，我想畫一個關於 EV 保證金的問題。

I want to draw a comparison with a certain EV automaker, which just put up a very strong third quarter.

我想與某家電動汽車製造商進行比較，該汽車製造商第三季度的表現非常強勁。

And I think you're finally starting to see, like, the EV margins materialize at some (inaudible) in the past.

而且我認為您終於開始看到，例如，電動汽車的利潤率在過去的某些（聽不清）處實現。

Now I know you've put out the target for your BEV margins to be equal to or better than ICE, and I know battery -- you've laid out certain battery targets, that's going to be a big part.

現在我知道你已經為你的 BEV 利潤率設定了等於或優於 ICE 的目標，而且我知道電池——你已經制定了某些電池目標，這將是一個重要的部分。

But I'm wondering if you could just walk us through maybe the other areas where you could see opportunity to boost EV margins, setting aside the software opportunity and just how easily those things could be attained.

但我想知道您是否可以帶我們了解一下您可以看到提高電動汽車利潤率的機會的其他領域，拋開軟件機會以及實現這些目標的難易程度。

Is it just better architecture consolidation, greater vehicle simplicity?

僅僅是更好的架構整合，更簡單的車輛嗎？

Is it more in-sourcing or more digital or quasi-direct to retail sales?

是更多的內購還是更多的數字化或准直接零售？

Just what other opportunities are there to improve the EV margins aside from the battery cost?

除了電池成本之外，還有哪些其他機會可以提高電動汽車的利潤率？

Sure.

當然。

Well, you rattled off a lot of them, Dan.

好吧，丹，你嚇壞了很多人。

Obviously, as we get scale, and the battery improvement is not insignificant but as we get the scale part of that and get scale with the vehicles, I think you're going to see margins improve.

顯然，隨著我們獲得規模，電池改進並非微不足道，但隨著我們獲得其中的一部分規模並獲得車輛規模，我認為你會看到利潤率提高。

We're definitely leveraging the Ultium platform and being able to launch in roughly half the time, there's just savings coming from that from less engineering because we already are working off the platform as well as the way we've done the control system.

我們肯定在利用 Ultium 平台，並且能夠在大約一半的時間內啟動，因為我們已經在使用平台以及我們完成控制系統的方式工作，因此減少了工程設計，從而節省了成本。

And we're looking across all aspects of the vehicle to ensure that EVs are affordable, really focused on what customers want.

我們正在研究車輛的各個方面，以確保電動汽車價格實惠，真正專注於客戶的需求。

We do extensive consumer clinics to understand what's going to be important.

我們開展了廣泛的消費者診所，以了解什麼是重要的。

So I think you'll see us, every aspect of the vehicle, we're looking to improve.

所以我想你會看到我們，車輛的各個方面，我們都在尋求改進。

And then the scale that we'll be able to get across platforms, I think, is going to drive it.

然後，我們將能夠跨平台獲得的規模，我認為，將推動它。

The battery cost will be another.

電池成本將是另一個。

And then you mentioned it but on top of that will be the services and that revenue that you don't get until you sell a vehicle.

然後你提到了它，但最重要的是服務和收入，直到你賣掉一輛車。

So we are working on that plan quite aggressively.

因此，我們正在非常積極地制定該計劃。

Our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I was hoping just first, you can help us a little bit more about -- with some thoughts on 2022.

我希望首先，你能幫助我們更多地了解——關於 2022 年的一些想法。

I know it's still early.

我知道現在還早。

We know some of the big items, right?

我們知道一些大項目，對吧？

You're going to have volume upside on the positive side, and it's been like a $10 billion headwind volume for you over the course of '19, with the strike in '20, and '21 with these shortages.

你將會有積極的交易量上升，在 19 年的過程中，隨著 20 年的罷工和 21 年的短缺，這對你來說就像是 100 億美元的逆風量。

That's going to be offset by some headwind from raw materials you're spending on EVs and some reversion of GM Financial.

這將被您在電動汽車上花費的原材料的一些不利因素以及通用汽車金融公司的一些逆轉所抵消。

But can you just maybe provide some high-level brackets on how we should be thinking about that, in particular, the volume, the raws and the spending?

但是，您能否提供一些關於我們應該如何考慮這一點的高級括號，特別是數量、原始數據和支出？

Because it sounds like you still believe that a path to 10% margin in North America is plausible.

因為聽起來您仍然相信在北美實現 10% 利潤率的路徑是合理的。

Yes.

是的。

I'll start with that, Rod, and Mary can add in any additional color she wants to give, obviously.

我將從這個開始，Rod，很明顯，Mary 可以添加她想要提供的任何其他顏色。

I think we certainly do still see that path.

我認為我們當然仍然看到這條路。

I think you outlined kind of the big moving pieces in your question itself.

我認為您在問題本身中概述了一些重要的移動部分。

We're certainly going to see lift in volume.

我們肯定會看到交易量增加。

I think we're going to see a very different mix because the incremental volume that will be coming on will be coming on at a little bit lower of a contribution than what we've seen, given some of the prioritization actions we took this year going forward.

我認為我們將看到一個非常不同的組合，因為考慮到我們今年採取的一些優先行動，即將出現的增量數量將比我們所看到的要低一些往前走。

We do have that commodity inflation, but we still remain convicted about our ability to be able to offset either that through productivity or through some of the pricing actions that we've seen.

我們確實有商品通脹，但我們仍然堅信我們有能力通過生產力或通過我們看到的一些定價行動來抵消它。

Certainly, we've seen the chips impact trim mixes and other things that we would otherwise want to be doing, but we've had to reduce a little bit.

當然，我們已經看到芯片影響了裝飾混合和其他我們本來想做的事情，但我們不得不減少一點。

So I think we're certainly looking at next year right now in detail, and we'll have more color to provide as we get into early '22.

所以我認為我們現在肯定會詳細研究明年，隨著我們進入 22 年初，我們將提供更多顏色。

Okay.

好的。

But you can't provide any kind of high-level brackets around magnitude of maybe commodity just based on where spot prices are or what is plausible for volume or spending?

但是你不能僅僅根據現貨價格的位置或對數量或支出的合理性提供任何關於商品數量的高級括號嗎？

Well, I think we said earlier this year that we expected the bulk of the commodity inflation to occur in the first half of the year.

好吧，我想我們今年早些時候說過，我們預計大部分商品通脹將發生在今年上半年。

Everything is moving around, obviously, as we've seen some -- a lot of volatility in, broadly, commodities and the supply chain.

顯然，一切都在發生變化，正如我們所看到的那樣——從廣義上講，大宗商品和供應鏈的波動很大。

We've seen a little bit of that retrace from the highs of this summer.

我們已經從今年夏天的高點看到了一些回撤。

So we're triangulating around that, but we've seen a couple of billion dollars as we look at 2022 right now.

所以我們正在圍繞這個進行三角測量，但是當我們現在看到 2022 年時，我們已經看到了數十億美元。

But that could go either way, just based on the volatility we've seen.

但這可能會以任何一種方式發生，僅基於我們所看到的波動性。

So that's why I'm hesitant to anchor on it right now.

所以這就是為什麼我現在猶豫要不要錨定它。

We're certainly looking at macro trends and that's part of the process, and we'll provide more detail as we go through our budget plans.

我們當然會關注宏觀趨勢，這是流程的一部分，我們將在完成預算計劃時提供更多細節。

Okay.

好的。

And just second, there is a little bit of confusion this morning about the drivers in Q4 versus Q3, so I was hoping maybe you can elaborate a little bit on that.

其次，今天早上關於第四季度和第三季度的車手有點混亂，所以我希望你能詳細說明一下。

In the third quarter, ex the reimbursement, it looks like EBIT would have been about $2.2 billion.

在第三季度，扣除報銷後，息稅前利潤似乎約為 22 億美元。

And it looks like your guidance, if you hit the higher end of the range, would be around $2.1 billion in Q4.

如果您達到該範圍的高端，您的指導看起來將在第四季度達到 21 億美元左右。

But it sounds like you've got a fair amount of WIP inventory now, so volumes should be up quite a bit.

但聽起來你現在有相當數量的 WIP 庫存，所以數量應該會增加很多。

Maybe there's some adjustment you've got in GMF and you said some mix in commodities.

也許您對 GMF 進行了一些調整，並且您說對商品進行了一些混合。

But can you maybe talk a little bit to some of the magnitudes of those sequential moving parts?

但是你能談談這些連續運動部件的一些幅度嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So if you look at the wholesale numbers that we articulated, you'd see a pretty sizable jump from Q3 to Q4.

因此，如果您查看我們闡明的批發數字，您會看到從第三季度到第四季度的大幅增長。

Included in that is clearing out some of the build-shy going forward.

其中包括清除一些未來的構建害羞。

But when you look at sequentially in terms of costs, you've got some seasonality in the fixed cost there.

但是，當您按順序查看成本時，您會發現固定成本存在一定的季節性。

You've got investments in the future, particularly around some of the manufacturing plans, marketing related to the new campaigns and the new vehicle launches going forward and just general investment in engineering and growth across the board.

您對未來進行了投資，特別是圍繞一些製造計劃、與新活動相關的營銷和未來新車發布，以及對工程和全面增長的一般投資。

So that's putting on some of the cost pressure going forward, but that is the type of long-term decisions that Mary has mentioned we're staying focused on as we go through this.

所以這會給未來帶來一些成本壓力，但這是瑪麗提到的長期決策類型，我們在經歷這個過程中會一直關注。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

Paul, maybe just to follow up here.

保羅，也許只是在這裡跟進。

If we look at the third quarter, right, and we back out the 2 items from the LG reimbursement and also the cost, then you had, it looks like, about a $2.2 billion headwind in cost.

如果我們看第三季度，對，我們從 LG 報銷中剔除 2 項以及成本，那麼你有，看起來，大約 22 億美元的成本逆風。

So you just went through like commodities, investments.

所以你只是經歷了大宗商品、投資。

I think there's also a non-repeat of some of the austerity.

我認為有些緊縮政策也不再重複。

But can you help us bucket some of that a little bit just so we can better think about how those should trend going forward?

但是你能幫我們解決一些問題，這樣我們就可以更好地思考這些趨勢應該如何發展？

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

To clarify, you're talking about Q2 to Q3 sequentially?

澄清一下，您是按順序討論 Q2 到 Q3 嗎？

Sorry.

對不起。

No, in the third quarter on a year-over-year, right, your cost, if you look at your costs and you back out the recall and the reimbursement, it was like a $2.2 billion headwind.

不，在與去年同期相比的第三季度，您的成本，如果您查看成本並取消召回和報銷，那就像是 22 億美元的逆風。

So I'm trying to understand what made that up.

所以我試圖理解是什麼造成的。

I would say just as a general rule, I would put about half of that into commodities inflation and about half of that into growth investments going forward and then what we've seen in our fixed cost structure.

我想說的是，作為一般規則，我會將其中大約一半用於商品通脹，大約一半用於未來的增長投資，然後是我們在固定成本結構中看到的情況。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then just on the CapEx, I know you said you lowered it.

然後就資本支出而言，我知道你說你降低了它。

Some of that is efficiency.

其中一些是效率。

Some of that sounds like timing.

其中一些聽起來像是時機。

If we go back to your investor event, I think you said about $9 billion to $10 billion over the midterm.

如果我們回到你的投資者活動，我想你說中期大約 90 億到 100 億美元。

So was that -- should we think about maybe towards the higher end or maybe even a little bit above next year, given some of these timing issues?

那麼，考慮到其中的一些時間問題，我們是否應該考慮到更高的水平，或者甚至比明年略高一點？

Yes.

是的。

I would just stick with that $9 billion to $10 billion guidance, I mean, because things bounce around from time to time.

我的意思是，我會堅持 90 億到 100 億美元的指導，因為事情會不時反彈。

But I think the important thing to take away from this update is that everything is progressing on schedule and on target.

但我認為從這次更新中得到的重要一點是，一切都在按計劃和目標進行。

That's the biggest concern.

這是最大的擔憂。

So timing between year will move.

因此，一年之間的時間會發生變化。

Sometimes it moves for you, sometimes it moves against you.

有時它為你而動，有時它對你不利。

But what we're really tracking on is the efficiency of the investment, which has gotten better as well as the timing to make sure that we're hitting our longer-term goals.

但我們真正關注的是投資的效率，它已經變得更好，以及確保我們實現長期目標的時機。

And that remains consistent.

這仍然是一致的。

So I would just stay with the $9 billion to $10 billion.

所以我會留在 90 億到 100 億美元之間。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

I want to go back to some of the unanswered questions from C&D.

我想回到 C&D 的一些未回答的問題。

Probably the biggest 1 we've been getting is all sounds good but what about the capital markets, in particular, where the unique time in the capital markets where billions are being devoted to pre-revenue companies.

可能我們得到的最大的 1 聽起來都不錯，但是資本市場呢，特別是資本市場的獨特時間，數十億美元被投入到未有收入的公司中。

So if you kind of think of Cruise in that light, how do you think about the kind of tension between waiting for some commercial milestones on that?

因此，如果您從這種角度考慮克魯斯，您如何看待等待一些商業里程碑之間的緊張關係？

And for example, particularly another SoftBank investment if they're paying (inaudible) that versus taking advantage of capital market conditions now?

例如，特別是軟銀的另一項投資，如果他們支付（聽不清）而不是利用現在的資本市場條件？

And then for the rest of the portfolio, what's the kind of metrics you're looking about when it's time, if ever, to take at least part of those out to the public markets?

然後對於投資組合的其餘部分，你正在尋找什麼樣的指標，如果有的話，至少將其中的一部分推向公開市場？

So from a Cruise perspective, we have Cruise well funded.

因此，從 Cruise 的角度來看，我們的 Cruise 資金充足。

So we're executing aggressively to commercialization, and we have the ability to do that with the steps that we've already taken as well as with GM's involvement.

因此，我們正在積極實施商業化，我們有能力通過我們已經採取的步驟以及通用汽車的參與來做到這一點。

And I think what you need to really look at though with Cruise is the vertical integration with GM is a key differentiator, and I believe it's one of the reasons Cruise is so well positioned as the only person who's got the permit in South -- in San Francisco to actually take the driver out of the vehicle.

而且我認為，儘管 Cruise 需要真正關注的是，與通用汽車的垂直整合是一個關鍵的差異化因素，我相信這也是 Cruise 能夠成為唯一在南方獲得許可證的人的原因之一——在舊金山實際上將司機帶出車輛。

That seamless integration of the technology along with leveraging Ultium as well as our manufacturing capability are a huge value.

該技術的無縫集成以及利用 Ultium 以及我們的製造能力是一個巨大的價值。

So I think the message on Cruise is we're well funded and we have rapid commercialization plans in front of us, and that's the play we're executing.

所以我認為克魯斯的信息是我們資金充足，我們面前有快速的商業化計劃，這就是我們正在執行的遊戲。

And over the longer term, the Board will look at what is -- what best enhances the overall value creation and shareholder value for the GM shareholder.

從長遠來看，董事會將研究什麼是最能提高通用汽車股東的整體價值創造和股東價值的東西。

Okay.

好的。

Well, specifically, it seemed like Dan's pay was tied to an eventual public offering.

嗯，具體來說，丹的薪水似乎與最終的公開募股有關。

A, is that a correct reading of the proxy?

A，這是對代理的正確解讀嗎？

B, does that imply it's a question of when as opposed to if, at least there's a partial offer in Cruise?

B，這是否意味著這是一個何時而不是如果，至少克魯斯有部分報價的問題？

I would say that the Board has flexibility with the way the agreements were written to do the right thing for the GM shareholder over the long term.

我想說的是，董事會在協議的編寫方式上具有靈活性，可以長期為通用汽車股東做正確的事情。

Okay.

好的。

And some of the other things in [PAM's] portfolio, would the idea be to hit commercialization targets?

[PAM] 產品組合中的其他一些東西，是否會達到商業化目標？

Or are some of them less tied to the core light vehicle business, e.g.

或者其中一些與核心輕型汽車業務的聯繫較少，例如。

the fuel cell business and might be you could consider strategic actions earlier on those?

燃料電池業務，您是否可以更早地考慮採取戰略行動？

Again, we'll evaluate each one for what we think creates the most shareholder value.

同樣，我們將評估每一個我們認為創造最大股東價值的東西。

From a fuel cell perspective, clearly, there's a vehicle application as well as across many different transportation industries and even stationary power.

從燃料電池的角度來看，很明顯，存在車輛應用以及許多不同的運輸行業甚至固定電源。

So we remain open to structure those in a way that's going to drive the most value.

因此，我們仍然願意以能夠帶來最大價值的方式來構建它們。

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自 Itay Michaeli 與 Citi 的對話。

Just 2 questions for me, 1 short term, 1 longer term.

對我來說只有 2 個問題，1 個短期問題，1 個長期問題。

On the short term, maybe going back to the second half bridge, I think Paul, last quarter, you outlined about a $1.5 billion to $2 billion increase in commodity costs H2 versus H1 and $0.5 billion of investments in growth.

在短期內，我認為保羅可能會回到下半橋，上個季度，您概述了 H2 與 H1 相比商品成本增加了 15 億至 20 億美元，以及 5 億美元的增長投資。

Are those still the right numbers to think about?

這些仍然是正確的數字嗎？

And do you have kind of a rough split of how that might trend from Q3 to Q4?

你對從第三季度到第四季度的趨勢有一個粗略的劃分嗎？

Yes, Itay, thanks for that question.

是的，Itay，謝謝這個問題。

What I would say is it's still largely consistent but it's really trending with volumes.

我想說的是，它在很大程度上仍然是一致的，但它確實隨著數量的增長而變化。

So I would expect that more of that inflation is going to hit in Q4 than it did in Q3 just sequentially, but that's really because of the volume lift that we see quarter-to-quarter.

因此，我預計第四季度的通脹將比第三季度更多，但這實際上是因為我們看到季度環比增長。

Got it, that's helpful.

明白了，很有幫助。

And then just on a longer-term basis, I think one of the interesting takeaways on the 2030 revenue target is that you have $90 billion of EV revenue and only maybe a loss of $12 billion or $13 billion of ICE revenue, so that kind of implies pretty healthy market share gains there for the EV business.

然後從長期來看，我認為 2030 年收入目標的一個有趣的收穫是，你有 900 億美元的電動汽車收入，而可能只有 120 億美元或 130 億美元的 ICE 收入損失，所以那種意味著電動汽車業務的市場份額相當健康。

Can you maybe talk more, unpack that more for us around what's driving these implied share gains?

你能不能多談談，為我們解開更多關於推動這些隱含股票收益的因素？

And does the $90 billion potentially include new regions, new markets that you don't really operate in today or other types of agreements?

900 億美元是否可能包括新地區、你今天沒有真正經營的新市場或其他類型的協議？

I would just love to get more detail on that split.

我只是想了解有關該拆分的更多詳細信息。

So the way I would look at it, Itay, is that the forecast that we put together and the plans that underlie it are for our current markets, so I would say if we enter into other markets in a broader fashion, that's growth on top of that.

因此，Itay，我的看法是，我們匯總的預測及其背後的計劃是針對我們當前市場的，所以我想說，如果我們以更廣泛的方式進入其他市場，那就是增長那個。

So that's the way I would look at the EV margins.

這就是我看待 EV 利潤率的方式。

And again, I think it relates to the fact that how quickly we're going to have a full portfolio of vehicles across brands, serving value customers, luxury customers, performance customers with our 4 brands.

再說一次，我認為這與我們將以多快的速度擁有跨品牌的完整車輛組合，通過我們的 4 個品牌為價值客戶、豪華客戶和性能客戶提供服務這一事實有關。

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Langan with Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just wanted to follow up on the magnesium and aluminum question.

只是想跟進鎂和鋁的問題。

I guess, one, I mean, how much visibility do you have?

我想，一個，我的意思是，你有多少能見度？

I mean, like coming from the semi issue, there hasn't been much visibility.

我的意思是，就像來自半刊一樣，知名度並不高。

I mean, do you -- is aluminum, because it's such a big bulky item that you actually have pretty good line of sight to where your suppliers are getting there, aluminum and sourcing the magnesium, which makes it, I think, a little more complicated.

我的意思是，你 - 是鋁嗎？因為它是一個如此龐大的物品，你實際上可以很好地看到你的供應商到達那裡的地方，鋁和鎂的採購，這使得它，我認為，多一點複雜的。

And then what about international?

然後國際呢？

Is there risk there for those operations?

這些操作有風險嗎？

It seems like just magnesium is such a large part of global supply.

似乎只有鎂是全球供應的很大一部分。

Well, so as it relates specifically to China with our JVs, we're working with our partners in the supply base to closely monitor the situation and we'll take mitigation actions as required.

好吧，由於它與我們的合資企業特別涉及中國，我們正在與供應基地的合作夥伴合作，密切關注局勢，我們將根據需要採取緩解措施。

Obviously, we're working closely with the suppliers from a North America perspective as well.

顯然，從北美的角度來看，我們也在與供應商密切合作。

So our current view, again, with all of those conversations is that we aren't going to see a significant supply risk.

因此，對於所有這些對話，我們目前的觀點是，我們不會看到重大的供應風險。

Got it, okay.

明白了，好吧。

And then just looking at Slide 13 and the -- the GM International profits ex China, have been pretty weak.

然後只看幻燈片 13 和 - 通用汽車國際在中國以外的利潤，一直很弱。

I mean, is additional restructuring needed in those regions?

我的意思是，這些地區是否需要進行額外的重組？

And any color, now that it's all lumped together, how much is South America, Korea?

還有什麼顏色，既然都混在一起了，南美，韓國多少錢？

And I guess there's a bit of rest of the world still in there.

我想世界上還有一些其他的地方。

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

I'll take that one, Colin.

我要那個，科林。

So what I would say that you're seeing particularly in the third quarter in GMI performance, excluding China, is -- has a lot to do with the way that the chips have been allocated.

所以我想說的是，你在第三季度特別看到 GMI 的表現（不包括中國）與芯片的分配方式有很大關係。

So if you look at the market share, particularly in South America, it's been pretty low and near historic lows, I would say.

因此，如果您查看市場份額，特別是在南美，我會說它非常低並且接近歷史低點。

But as you look at sequentially through the quarter and certainly what we're seeing in October, as we've been able to turn plants back on, that market share is recovering quickly.

但是，從整個季度的順序來看，當然還有我們在 10 月份看到的情況，因為我們已經能夠重新啟動工廠，所以市場份額正在迅速恢復。

So I don't think the results that you're seeing ex China is indicative of the run rate capability of the performance.

因此，我認為您在中國以外看到的結果並不代表性能的運行速度能力。

In fact, I think it's a testament to the restructuring efforts that have been done, and we would look for further improvement in those regions as volume returns back to normal levels.

事實上，我認為這證明了已經完成的重組工作，隨著銷量恢復到正常水平，我們將尋求這些地區的進一步改善。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Ives with Wedbush.

您的下一個問題來自 Daniel Ives 與 Wedbush 的對話。

So my question, it's not focused on the next 30 or 45 days, like some.

所以我的問題是，它不像某些人那樣關注未來 30 或 45 天。

But when you're looking at the EV vision into 2022, can you walk us through the key bogeys?

但是，當您著眼於 2022 年的電動汽車願景時，您能告訴我們關鍵的忌諱嗎？

Obviously, it starts off with CES.

顯然，它從 CES 開始。

But what are sort of the -- what we would view as almost a time line and the key events going into '22 when we think about EV?

但是，當我們考慮 EV 時，我們會認為幾乎是一個時間線以及進入 22 年的關鍵事件是什麼？

So I think it really starts at the end of fall this year with the HUMMER EV followed by the LYRIQ launching in both the United States and in China.

所以我認為它真正開始於今年秋末的悍馬 EV，然後是 LYRIQ 在美國和中國的推出。

Then -- and well, as you said, at CES, we're going to be revealing the Silverado EV and this is really a redefinition in taking trucks to, I'll say, a new level based on what we can do with the Ultium platform and understanding what truck owners want but also people who are coming in who aren't our traditional truck buyers.

然後 - 好吧，正如你所說，在 CES 上，我們將展示 Silverado EV，這真的是重新定義卡車，我會說，基於我們可以做的新水平Ultium 平台並了解卡車車主的需求，以及那些不是我們傳統卡車買家的人。

At CES, we'll also share a little bit more detail about the $30,000 Chevy EV that will then be revealed later in the year.

在 CES 上，我們還將分享更多關於價值 30,000 美元的雪佛蘭 EV 的細節，該 EV 將於今年晚些時候發布。

And we'll have more to say with the vehicle that's even going to be more affordable than that.

對於這款甚至比這更實惠的車輛，我們還有更多話要說。

And again, we have a number of EVs, as we've talked about, 30 by '25, so there'll be more information.

再說一次，正如我們所談到的，到 25 年，我們有 30 輛電動汽車，所以會有更多信息。

But those are what I can share with you now, so some pretty significant milestones of not only having EVs out.

但這些是我現在可以與你分享的，所以一些非常重要的里程碑不僅是電動汽車的推出。

We will also, as we take care of our customers with the Bolt EV and EUV, we'll have an opportunity to really grow that share because the vehicle was doing quite well before we took the necessary actions to protect our customers.

當我們用 Bolt EV 和 EUV 照顧我們的客戶時，我們還將有機會真正增加這一份額，因為在我們採取必要措施保護我們的客戶之前，這輛車的表現相當不錯。

So I see a very strong EV landscape in '22 but then in '23, it really turns on.

所以我在 22 年看到了非常強大的電動汽車景觀，但在 23 年，它真的開始了。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

So Mary, you've talked about taking driver out of Cruise vehicles in quarters, not years.

所以瑪麗，你談到了將司機從 Cruise 車輛中取出來，而不是幾年。

How confident does GM feel driver-out can be achieved in 2022?

通用汽車對 2022 年實現淘汰賽的信心有多大？

Is that too soon?

是不是太快了？

I know you're close.

我知道你很近。

I would say we're pretty confident.

我會說我們非常有信心。

Okay, that's good enough for me.

好吧，這對我來說已經足夠了。

Mary, just a follow-up on car rental and fleet support with -- as your cars become more connected and software-designed, OEMs are kind of moving into -- like yourself are moving into this recurring revenue network operating model.

瑪麗，只是汽車租賃和車隊支持的後續行動——隨著你的汽車變得更加互聯和軟件設計，原始設備製造商正在進入——就像你自己正在進入這種經常性收入網絡運營模式。

You see that VW bought Europcar, Tesla does a major deal with a car rental firm.

您會看到大眾汽車收購了 Europcar，特斯拉與一家汽車租賃公司達成了一項重大交易。

I'm just wondering -- your 2030 targets are heavily based on software and service revenue, which implies some degree of physical fleet management.

我只是想知道——您的 2030 年目標很大程度上取決於軟件和服務收入，這意味著一定程度的物理車隊管理。

So what is GM's strategy for fleet support?

那麼通用汽車的車隊支持戰略是什麼？

You thinking more in-house and vertically integrated?

你想更多的內部和垂直整合？

You work with the franchise dealers?

您與特許經銷商合作？

Or are there other alternatives like working with non-dealer partners like car rental or other logistics partners along the way?

還是有其他選擇，例如與汽車租賃或其他物流合作夥伴等非經銷商合作夥伴合作？

Sure.

當然。

Well, I think if you look at how we're structuring BrightDrop from a commercial vehicle perspective and some of the close relationships that we have with FedEx Express, et cetera, that -- and there -- we, as a part of BrightDrop, are going to have a system that kind of holistically helps them manage the whole ecosystem.

好吧，我想如果你從商用車的角度來看我們如何構建 BrightDrop，以及我們與 FedEx Express 等的一些密切關係，那 - 那裡 - 我們作為 BrightDrop 的一部分，將會有一個系統來幫助他們管理整個生態系統。

So I think that points in a direction.

所以我認為這指向了一個方向。

Having said that though, with the launch of EVs, I think in the software services we're going to have in the vehicle, we're not going to cede that to someone else because I think that revenue and managing that is very important, and none of it starts to accrue until you actually have the vehicle being driven.

話雖如此，但隨著電動汽車的推出，我認為在我們將在車輛中擁有的軟件服務中，我們不會將其拱手讓給其他人，因為我認為收入和管理非常重要，在您真正駕駛車輛之前，這些都不會開始累積。

But having said that, I will just say, Adam, there's a lot of conversations going on right now.

但話雖如此，我只想說，亞當，現在有很多對話正在進行。

And again, we're going to look at what provides us the biggest growth opportunity, not only in EV sales but also in the whole software system to manage those fleets or provide different services to our customers.

再一次，我們將看看是什麼為我們提供了最大的增長機會，不僅在電動汽車銷售方面，而且在管理這些車隊或為我們的客戶提供不同服務的整個軟件系統方面。

So I don't have anything specific to announce today, but I'd just say there's a lot of conversations underway.

所以我今天沒有任何具體要宣布的事情，但我只想說有很多對話正在進行中。

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

I just wanted to ask about sort of inventory management here in the short run, midterm and long term.

我只是想問一下短期、中期和長期的庫存管理。

I think, Paul, you had mentioned there's about 124,000 units in dealer inventory right now.

我想，保羅，你提到現在經銷商庫存中大約有 124,000 台。

There's some units in work in progress.

有一些單位正在進行中。

If you can maybe let us know what that number is.

如果你能告訴我們這個數字是多少。

Then also for both of you, where do you think that travel level should be in the U.S. as things normalize?

那麼對於你們倆來說，隨著事情的正常化，您認為美國的旅行水平應該在哪裡？

Because I mean, pre-crisis, you've been running right around 800,000 units, plus or minus.

因為我的意思是，在危機前，你已經運行了大約 800,000 個單位，正負。

So it indicates that there can be very significant catch-up.

因此，這表明可能會有非常顯著的追趕。

But I guess the question is, where do you actually land and how much of the price activity that has been really positive because of tight inventory might be maintained.

但我想問題是，你實際上在哪裡登陸，以及由於庫存緊張而真正積極的價格活動有多少可以維持。

So really sort of short term, what are we actually looking at of effective inventory?

所以真的有點短期，我們實際上在看什麼有效庫存？

And then long term, where do you think it stays hopefully tighter than history?

然後從長遠來看，你認為它在哪裡有望比歷史更緊？

And what does that mean for pricing?

這對定價意味著什麼？

So what I would say is the inventory levels that we see now around kind of that 125,000 is expected to remain low, probably into and through 2022.

所以我要說的是，我們現在看到的大約 125,000 的庫存水平預計將保持在低水平，可能會持續到 2022 年。

To be honest, I think as production ramps up in terms of what we're seeing in demand, I think the opportunities to build inventory are going to be somewhat limited, which in the short run, I think, is a good thing for pricing and for what we see in terms of the demand environment.

老實說，我認為隨著產量的增加，我們看到的需求量，我認為建立庫存的機會將有些有限，我認為從短期來看，這對定價來說是一件好事以及我們在需求環境方面看到的情況。

Midterm, we would expect to start building inventories off of these levels because it's not healthy where we see our dealers with empty lots, et cetera.

中期，我們預計會開始從這些水平開始建立庫存，因為我們看到我們的經銷商有空地等等是不健康的。

And when consumers want to buy a vehicle, they want to buy a vehicle.

當消費者想買車時，他們想買車。

They don't want to wait.

他們不想等待。

And we're meant to have more inventory.

我們應該有更多的庫存。

And longer term, what I would say is go back to kind of what we've said from the beginning of this, that there's a lot of lessons learned in inventory management and certainly what the impact has been on pricing this year.

從長遠來看，我想說的是回到我們從一開始就說過的那種，在庫存管理方面有很多經驗教訓，當然還有今年對定價的影響。

And the right answer is certainly a lot more than what we have today but certainly quite a bit less than what we've carried historically going forward.

正確的答案肯定比我們今天擁有的要多得多，但肯定比我們在歷史上前進的要少得多。

So as we come through this over the longer term, we'll continue to manage that dynamically through the market, but I'd expect it to be less than historical levels.

因此，隨著我們從長遠來看，我們將繼續通過市場動態管理它，但我預計它會低於歷史水平。

Yes, I think -- go ahead.

是的，我想——繼續。

No, Mary, go ahead.

不，瑪麗，繼續。

I just have a follow-up after that.

在那之後我只有一個跟進。

Yes.

是的。

I just -- Paul, spot on.

我只是 - 保羅，當場。

The only thing I would add is we've added a lot of data analytics to better support our dealers to have the right inventory.

我唯一要補充的是，我們添加了大量數據分析，以更好地支持我們的經銷商擁有正確的庫存。

And so I think like Paul said, you're going to see something less, but I think it's going to be much more efficient from a company and a dealer perspective.

所以我認為就像保羅所說的那樣，你會看到更少的東西，但我認為從公司和經銷商的角度來看，它會更有效率。

So I'm really pleased with how well that's working out with our dealers as we look at getting the right products specced the right way to really serve the customer efficiently.

所以我真的很高興與我們的經銷商合作的效果如何，因為我們正在尋找正確的產品以正確的方式真正有效地為客戶服務。

Okay, that's incredibly helpful.

好的，這非常有幫助。

And then just 1 question on the Cadillac dealer strategy.

然後是關於凱迪拉克經銷商策略的 1 個問題。

I mean, it sounds like there was a charge in the quarter as you're transitioning some of the dealerships out as they don't want to tag into or invest in the new EV strategy.

我的意思是，聽起來本季度有一筆費用，因為您正在將一些經銷商轉移出去，因為他們不想標記或投資新的電動汽車戰略。

I'm just curious how big that is in the base of Cadillac dealerships.

我只是好奇凱迪拉克經銷商的基礎有多大。

And if you think about the transition to EV and your entire product portfolio, how big an opportunity is this to maybe streamline and strengthen your dealership base on a stronger core like you have in other parts of the business?

而且，如果您考慮向 EV 和您的整個產品組合的過渡，那麼在您在業務其他部分擁有的更強大的核心基礎上，精簡和加強您的經銷商基礎的機會有多大？

Yes.

是的。

I think what has been accomplished with the Cadillac dealer base is very, very important and it was done the right way.

我認為凱迪拉克經銷商基礎所取得的成就非常非常重要，而且是以正確的方式完成的。

We were clear with, as we transition Cadillac, it will be our lead brand moving to all-EV and wanted to make sure that the dealers were in partnership with us to make the investments that they needed to make to win selling electric vehicles.

我們很清楚，在我們過渡凱迪拉克時，這將是我們轉向全電動汽車的領先品牌，並希望確保經銷商與我們合作，進行他們需要進行的投資，以贏得電動汽車的銷售。

And for those -- and we have a lot of dealers.

對於那些 - 我們有很多經銷商。

Some are very high volume, some are smaller.

有些體積很大，有些體積較小。

So you can imagine as they weigh that decision of what's in the best interest for them, we work through that.

所以你可以想像，當他們權衡對他們最有利的決定時，我們會努力解決這個問題。

So what we have now, I think, is a very efficient Cadillac dealer base that's very excited about the electrified -- our all-EV products that are coming and are making the investments to support the customer extremely well.

因此，我認為，我們現在擁有的是一個非常高效的凱迪拉克經銷商群，他們對電氣化感到非常興奮——我們即將推出的全電動汽車產品，並且正在投資以非常好地支持客戶。

So I think it's going to be a model as we go forward.

所以我認為這將成為我們前進的榜樣。

But I'm very pleased with how that has turned out.

但我對結果非常滿意。

And again, we did it in -- with our dealers.

再一次，我們和我們的經銷商一起做了。

And I think that's going to prove to be the right way to do it and very strong from a customer support perspective.

而且我認為這將被證明是正確的方法，並且從客戶支持的角度來看非常強大。

Your next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So 1 follow-up on the short term and then 1 longer-term question.

所以 1 次短期跟進，然後 1 次長期問題。

On the short term, I'm curious if you could put a finer point around how some of the cost pressure you expect in the fourth quarter are a good read across the run rate for how to think about 2022.

在短期內，我很好奇您是否可以更詳細地說明您對第四季度預期的一些成本壓力如何從整體上很好地了解如何考慮 2022 年的運行速度。

And the reason I'm asking is if I understand you well, Paul, I think you expect Q4 volumes to be about in line with Q2, but then at the same time, the guided EBIT for Q4 is probably about half of what you did in Q2, so $2 billion versus the $4 billion.

我問的原因是我是否理解你，保羅，我認為你預計第四季度的交易量與第二季度差不多，但與此同時，第四季度的指導息稅前利潤可能大約是你所做的一半在第二季度，20 億美元對 40 億美元。

And so when I think of that $2 billion delta, seems like there's commodities in there and then there's investments in the future.

因此，當我想到 20 億美元的增量時，似乎裡面有大宗商品，然後還有對未來的投資。

So first, is my understanding correct?

那麼首先，我的理解正確嗎？

And second of all, how do I think about these costs going to next year?

其次，我如何看待明年的這些成本？

You spoke about commodities.

你談到了商品。

What about the investments in the future?

未來的投資如何？

Is this the sort of like run rate that is required for your plan?

這是您的計劃所需的類似運行速率嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So thanks, Emmanuel, for that question.

所以謝謝，伊曼紐爾，這個問題。

In order to go back to Q2, we also have to understand that there were some onetime or shorter-term impact issues that were affecting that.

為了回到第二季度，我們還必須了解有一些一次性或短期影響問題正在影響它。

So when you back that out of Q2 and kind of normalize it, you're looking at approximately $1 billion.

因此，當您在第二季度將其支持並使其正常化時，您將看到大約 10 億美元。

So GMF had true-up of some of its liabilities.

所以 GMF 對它的一些負債進行了修正。

Now that all that caught up to the credit terms and the used car prices, we're kind of on a run rate basis at GMF.

現在所有這些都趕上了信貸條款和二手車價格，我們在 GMF 的運行率基礎上。

That was included in Q2.

這包括在第二季度。

We had some mark-to-market on investments as well.

我們也有一些按市值計價的投資。

So if you take about $1 billion out and then you look at roughly $1 billion to $1.5 billion kind of where we were Q4 to Q2, I would break that down into about half of that, so call it in the $700 million range being about the cost inflation and where we're seeing investment into the business on kind of a run rate, and then the other half being commodities, which should vary over time.

因此，如果你拿出大約 10 億美元，然後你看看大約 10 億美元到 15 億美元，我們在第四季度到第二季度的情況，我會將其分解為大約一半，因此將其稱為 7 億美元範圍內的大約成本通脹以及我們看到以某種運行率對業務進行的投資，然後另一半是商品，這應該會隨著時間的推移而變化。

And certainly, we've seen some of that pressure coming off of the peaks.

當然，我們已經看到一些來自高峰的壓力。

I hope that answered your question.

我希望這回答了你的問題。

Yes.

是的。

That's super clear, but the fourth quarter, how do we think about these investments in the business on a go-forward basis?

這非常清楚，但是第四季度，我們如何看待這些對業務的投資？

I think the fourth quarter is kind of indicative of that.

我認為第四季度可以說明這一點。

You see kind of that fixed cost kind of being roughly flat 3Q to 4Q is how we're thinking about it.

你看到那種固定成本大致持平 3Q 到 4Q 是我們正在考慮的方式。

But it's going to continue to grow over time as we roll out these products and going forward.

但隨著我們推出這些產品並繼續前進，它會隨著時間的推移而繼續增長。

So you've seen some increase in CIB for the launches of the new EVs.

因此，您已經看到 CIB 因新電動汽車的推出而有所增加。

Obviously, we're going to be in a pretty sizable launch cadence going forward for the next few years, and we're going to make sure that we invest in that.

顯然，我們將在未來幾年內以相當大的發布節奏前進，我們將確保我們對此進行投資。

And then we've got engineering going on for multiple projects going forward.

然後我們已經開始為多個項目進行工程設計。

So I think we've got good control of that, where we stand and where we go.

所以我認為我們已經很好地控制了這一點，我們的立場和我們的去向。

And it's stuff that we think is the right investment for the long term.

我們認為這是長期正確的投資。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on the longer-term view, I wanted to follow up on the question I asked you at the Capital Markets Day.

然後從長遠來看，我想跟進我在資本市場日問你的問題。

So I was very encouraged to see your bullish long-term targets for margin as well as the goal to improve margins in the core automotive business by 2030.

因此，我很高興看到您看好利潤率的長期目標以及到 2030 年提高核心汽車業務利潤率的目標。

My question is, how will you manage profitability in between, so between now and sort of like mid-decade as some of these EVs roll on and ramp up at a lower than average margin as well like some of these investments in the business as sort of like needed?

我的問題是，你將如何管理這兩者之間的盈利能力，所以從現在到 10 年中期，隨著這些電動汽車中的一些滾動並以低於平均利潤率的速度增長，以及其中一些對業務的投資像需要嗎？

How will you sort of ensure that the profitability sort of like is on an upward trajectory before the 2030 target?

您將如何確保在 2030 年目標之前盈利能力處於上升軌道？

Yes.

是的。

Emmanuel, here's the way I look at it.

伊曼紐爾，這就是我看待它的方式。

Obviously, as we get scale, that's going to continue to help.

顯然，隨著我們的規模擴大，這將繼續提供幫助。

The question that was asked before, from an EV profitability perspective, so that we get there mid-decade and then just continue to build on that.

之前提出的問題，從電動汽車盈利能力的角度來看，所以我們在十年中期到達那裡，然後繼續在此基礎上發展。

But we are also going to be focused on investing in businesses that are going to allow us to create software businesses that have a very different margin potential overall that's part of that.

但我們也將專注於投資於那些將使我們能夠創建總體上具有非常不同的利潤率潛力的軟件業務的業務，這是其中的一部分。

So as we said at Investor Day, we said we -- plus or minus, we're going to maintain margins as we go forward because we think we have the capability to do that.

因此，正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們說我們——正負，我們將在前進的過程中保持利潤率，因為我們認為我們有能力做到這一點。

But just to be clear, we're also going to make sure that we're doing the right investment.

但為了清楚起見，我們還將確保我們正在進行正確的投資。

We're not going to constrain investment in the future growth opportunities.

我們不會限制對未來增長機會的投資。

But the current modeling that we've done and the plan that we're executing and the targets that have been distributed that everybody is being held accountable to, we see roughly a steady and then improving toward the latter part of the decade with margins.

但是，我們目前所做的建模和我們正在執行的計劃以及每個人都需要對其負責的已分配目標，我們看到大致穩定，然後在本世紀的後半部分有所改善，並有利潤。

Paul, anything that I missed?

保羅，我錯過了什麼？

No.

不。

And I think the additional truck capacity that's coming on is going to give us an ability to continue to grow the leading truck franchise, which as we've said from day 1, is funding the journey.

而且我認為即將到來的額外卡車容量將使我們有能力繼續發展領先的卡車特許經營權，正如我們從第一天開始所說的那樣，正在為旅程提供資金。

So we expect a little bit of a mix uplift from that, that's going to help to offset some of that shorter-term margin pressure that you might otherwise expect to see.

因此，我們預計會出現一些混合提升，這將有助於抵消一些您可能期望看到的短期保證金壓力。

So this is going to be a focal point of -- as we -- as I talked about in my prepared remarks, of making sure that we're bringing transparency on KPIs and how we're thinking about the business heading through '22 and into 2023.

因此，正如我在準備好的講話中所談到的那樣，這將成為一個焦點，即確保我們為 KPI 帶來透明度，以及我們如何考慮到 22 年和到 2023 年。

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Thanks for taking my question, which is on how you are anticipating commercial negotiations with auto part suppliers might track going forward and the potential impact to margin?

感謝您提出我的問題，即您如何預期與汽車零部件供應商的商業談判可能會跟踪未來以及對利潤率的潛在影響？

I understand there are typically built into contracts agreements for automakers to compensate suppliers for increases in raw material costs but generally not for other forms of inflation such as freight, logistics, labor, et cetera?

我知道汽車製造商的合同協議中通常包含補償供應商原材料成本的增加，但通常不會補償其他形式的通貨膨脹，如貨運、物流、勞動力等？

On some of the earnings calls so far this quarter, suppliers have discussed attempting to negotiate for reimbursement for some of these, at least, noncommodity supply chain costs and even for the magnitude and suddenness of order cancellations due to the semiconductor shortage curtailing production, which again, I don't think we've historically seen automakers compensate suppliers for lower volumes stemming from factors outside of their control.

在本季度迄今為止的一些財報電話會議上，供應商已經討論過試圖就其中一些費用進行談判，至少是非商品供應鏈成本，甚至是由於半導體短缺削減生產而導致的訂單取消的規模和突然性，這再說一次，我認為我們歷史上從未見過汽車製造商因供應商無法控制的因素而對供應商進行補償。

So just wanted to check in with you to see how you expect these conversations may proceed and whether we should think about suppliers bearing the brunt of these noncommodity costs or if there maybe margin implications for GM?

因此，只是想與您聯繫一下，看看您預計這些對話會如何進行，以及我們是否應該考慮供應商首當其沖地承受這些非商品成本，或者是否可能對通用汽車產生利潤影響？

Ryan, I'll take a shot at that, and obviously, I'm not going to go into any detail on any conversations that we're having across our supply base.

瑞安，我會試一試，顯然，我不會詳細介紹我們在整個供應基地進行的任何對話。

But what I would say is the singular focus is making sure that we have consistency and reduce some of the volatility that we've seen in the supply chain, whether it's due to logistics or semiconductors, et cetera.

但我要說的是，唯一的重點是確保我們具有一致性並減少我們在供應鏈中看到的一些波動，無論是由於物流還是半導體等。

So we're working across the board because that's where the real value is, working with our suppliers to drive efficiencies across the business is ultimately what we all have to do to be able to counter inflationary aspects of the business.

因此，我們正在全面開展工作，因為這才是真正的價值所在，與我們的供應商合作以提高整個業務的效率最終是我們所有人都必須做的，以應對業務的通脹方面。

But right now, the here and now is navigating through some of the short-term challenges while focusing on operations.

但現在，此時此地正在應對一些短期挑戰，同時專注於運營。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And then my last question is a follow-up to Adam's earlier question on fleet sales.

然後我的最後一個問題是對亞當早先關於車隊銷售的問題的跟進。

I recall that pre-pandemic, you had significantly reduced your sales to daily rental car companies in particular.

我記得在大流行之前，您對日租汽車公司的銷售額尤其顯著減少。

How are you feeling or thinking about prioritizing of sales between retail and fleet customers, and between the various categories of fleet customers with the supply chain where it is currently?

您如何看待或考慮在零售和車隊客戶之間以及不同類別的車隊客戶與當前供應鏈之間的銷售優先順序？

And then longer term, how do you view the relative attractiveness and profitability of the various different sales channels, such as retail, daily rental, commercial, small and medium-sized businesses, et cetera?

然後從長遠來看，您如何看待零售、日租、商業、中小企業等各種不同銷售渠道的相對吸引力和盈利能力？

Well, in the past, in the traditional ICE business, daily rental was the least profitable business, and we had worked to reduce that substantially and held discipline to that.

好吧，在過去，在傳統的 ICE 業務中，每日租金是最不賺錢的業務，我們一直努力大幅減少這一點，並對此保持紀律。

There actually, though, is fleet business that's very good, as I mentioned before, with what we're entering into BrightDrop, not only the business itself with the vehicles but then the services and the first-mile, last-mile solutions that we're going to be offering so we're going to be aggressive from that perspective.

但實際上，正如我之前提到的，車隊業務非常好，我們正在進入 BrightDrop，不僅是車輛業務本身，還有我們提供的服務和第一英里、最後一英里的解決方案'將會提供，所以從這個角度來看，我們將變得積極進取。

And then again, I think there's new frameworks opening up from what today -- or what has been, in the past, from a rental car perspective.

再說一次，我認為從租車的角度來看，從今天或過去的情況來看，會出現新的框架。

So as I said, there's a lot of conversations going on.

正如我所說，有很多對話正在進行。

We're going to do what we think is in the long-term interest of maximizing our profitability and also reach with EVs, and so more to come.

我們將做我們認為符合長期利益的事情，以最大限度地提高我們的盈利能力，並使用電動汽車，等等。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

Software and connected services, especially on a subscription basis, is a big focus for the auto industry or something that GM spent a lot of time focusing on at the Analyst Day.

軟件和連接服務，尤其是訂閱服務，是汽車行業的一大焦點，也是通用汽車在分析師日花費大量時間關注的事情。

I think the company guided for about $2 billion of subscription-related revenue this year at over 70% EBIT margin.

我認為該公司今年的訂閱相關收入約為 20 億美元，息稅前利潤率超過 70%。

And you talked about that $20 billion to $25 billion target by 2030.

你談到了到 2030 年達到 200 億至 250 億美元的目標。

Can you talk about how you see the ramp from where you are this year to that 2030 target?

你能談談你如何看待從今年到 2030 年目標的坡道嗎？

What sort of increases should we be expecting as investors in the next few years?

作為投資者，未來幾年我們應該期待什麼樣的增長？

And is it a pretty linear increase or is this going to be more of a back-end weighted target?

這是一個相當線性的增長，還是更像是一個後端加權目標？

As we talked about, a lot of that revenue growth is really tied to the Ultifi platform and how we're going forward in terms of getting the connected car park out there, which is going to build aggressively over time as we ramp up EVs.

正如我們所談到的，很多收入增長實際上與 Ultifi 平台以及我們在將聯網停車場推出方面的進展方式相關，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們增加電動汽車，該平台將積極建立。

So by definition, that's going to be a little bit more back loaded.

所以根據定義，這將是一個多一點的後負荷。

We can see a little bit of growth on the horizon as we look at OnStar and some of the connected services, which is really the baseline today going forward.

當我們查看 OnStar 和一些連接的服務時，我們可以看到一點點的增長，這確實是今天前進的基準。

But certainly, we'd expect that to tick up as we -- significantly in the growth rate as we get into the second half of the decade.

但可以肯定的是，我們預計隨著我們進入本世紀下半葉，增長率會顯著提高。

Understood.

明白了。

And a follow-up question, it's about end demand.

還有一個後續問題，它是關於最終需求的。

Wholesales are down and I think a lot of it is on these supply chain challenges.

批發量下降，我認為其中很大一部分是由於這些供應鏈挑戰。

But when you look at some of the macroeconomic indicators and talk to your channel and dealer network, are you seeing any changes in end demand, either in the U.S. or China that we need to be monitoring?

但是，當您查看一些宏觀經濟指標並與您的渠道和經銷商網絡交談時，您是否看到我們需要監控的美國或中國的最終需求變化？

Or is the wholesale decline really just due to supply?

還是批發量下降真的只是因為供應？

We're selling everything we can sell.

我們正在出售我們可以出售的一切。

It is totally due to what we're able to supply.

這完全歸功於我們能夠提供的東西。

I'm so excited and enthused at the strong reaction to all of our products.

我對我們所有產品的強烈反應感到非常興奮和熱情。

So I am confident as we build more, we will have -- we'll see strong reaction and acceptance of those vehicles.

所以我有信心，隨著我們建造更多，我們將擁有 - 我們將看到這些車輛的強烈反應和接受。

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Portillo with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matt Portillo 與 Tudor、Pickering、Holt 的對話。

I wanted to ask a follow-up question on the BrightDrop business segment.

我想問一個關於 BrightDrop 業務部門的後續問題。

The long-term revenue growth outlook provided at CMD was quite impressive, backed by initial customer orders from FedEx and Verizon.

CMD 提供的長期收入增長前景令人印象深刻，這得益於 FedEx 和 Verizon 的初始客戶訂單。

What we're hoping to get a bit more color on is how you're seeing incremental customer demand evolving, given benefits highlighted on a TCO basis for buyers, and how we should think about margin progression for the business as vehicle production ramps over the next few years and ancillary revenue streams expand, helping to push margins to the low 20s long term?

我們希望獲得更多色彩的是您如何看到不斷增長的客戶需求，考慮到在 TCO 基礎上為買家突出的好處，以及我們應該如何考慮隨著汽車產量超過未來幾年和輔助收入來源擴大，有助於將利潤率長期推低至 20 多歲？

Yes.

是的。

So Matt, I think we shared quite a bit of information on our goals there.

所以馬特，我認為我們分享了很多關於我們在那裡的目標的信息。

As Paul said, as we move forward in the next few months, we'll give you milestones to look at in some of those key businesses like BrightDrop, but I don't have anything more to share today.

正如保羅所說，隨著我們在接下來的幾個月中前進，我們將為您提供一些重要業務的里程碑，例如 BrightDrop，但我今天沒有更多要分享的內容。

Okay.

好的。

And then my follow-up question, I was just hoping to dig a bit around the medium-term outlook for Ultra Cruise.

然後是我的後續問題，我只是希望深入了解 Ultra Cruise 的中期前景。

It's an extremely exciting platform.

這是一個非常令人興奮的平台。

We know Super Cruise is currently being rolled out to a wider range of models this year and scaling to 22 vehicles by 2023.

我們知道 Super Cruise 目前正在今年推出更廣泛的車型，到 2023 年將擴展到 22 輛車。

Just curious if you could provide some guide rails on how we should be thinking about the rollout of Ultra Cruise, and at what point we could see that product launched in some of your higher volume vehicle lines.

只是想知道您是否可以提供一些關於我們應該如何考慮推出 Ultra Cruise 的指南，以及在什麼時候我們可以看到該產品在您的一些更高容量的車輛系列中推出。

I think with all the lessons learned that we've had with Super Cruise, that as we get that technology into market, that we will scale it quite -- or make it available quite rapidly across the portfolio even faster than what we've done with Super Cruise.

我認為，根據我們從 Super Cruise 中獲得的所有經驗教訓，隨著我們將該技術推向市場，我們將對其進行相當程度的擴展——或者使其在整個投資組合中的應用速度比我們所做的更快與超級巡航。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing remarks.

我現在想把電話轉給 Mary Barra 做她的閉幕詞。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, hey, thanks, everybody, for all of your questions.

好吧，嘿，謝謝大家，為你所有的問題。

I do want to end with saying how proud I am of the entire GM team, including our dealers and our suppliers.

最後我想說的是，我為整個通用汽車團隊感到多麼自豪，包括我們的經銷商和供應商。

In every part of the company, I see urgency, decisiveness, agility, creativity of just solving issues and finding opportunities and really leveraging them.

在公司的每個部分，我都看到了解決問題、尋找機會並真正利用它們的緊迫性、果斷性、敏捷性和創造力。

So they are key -- our partners are key to our consistent strong performance over the last several years, and it's why I'm very confident not only that we're going to see improvements as we move through fourth quarter and into 2022 and then beyond.

所以他們是關鍵——我們的合作夥伴是我們過去幾年持續強勁表現的關鍵，這就是為什麼我非常有信心，我們不僅會在第四季度和 2022 年看到改善，然後超過。

We are very committed to the growth strategy that we outlined as part of our Investor Day, and looking forward to sharing more not only about the exciting products and businesses that we'll be offering but also the milestones for you to be able to track our performance.

我們非常致力於我們作為投資者日的一部分概述的增長戰略，並期待分享更多關於我們將提供的令人興奮的產品和業務，以及讓您能夠跟踪我們的里程碑表現。

So again, I thank you for joining us today, and I hope everyone stays safe.

所以，我再次感謝你今天加入我們，我希望每個人都保持安全。

That concludes the conference call for today.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。