通用汽車 (GM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the General Motors Company Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, Tuesday, July 26, 2022.

早上好，歡迎參加通用汽車公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次電話會議將於 2022 年 7 月 26 日星期二進行錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ashish Kohli, GM's Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議轉交給通用汽車投資者關係副總裁 Ashish Kohli。

Thanks, Brad. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us as we review GM's financial results for the second quarter of 2022. Our conference call materials were issued earlier today and are available on the GM Investor Relations website. We are also broadcasting this call via webcast.

謝謝，布拉德。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們，共同審查通用汽車 2022 年第二季度的財務業績。我們的電話會議材料於今天早些時候發布，可在通用汽車投資者關係網站上查閱。我們也通過網絡廣播廣播這個電話。

Joining us today is Mary Barra, GM's Chair and CEO; Paul Jacobson, GM's Executive Vice President and CFO; Dan Berce, President and CEO of GM Financial; and Kyle Vogt, CEO of Cruise, will also be joining us for the Q&A portion of the call.

今天加入我們的是通用汽車的主席兼首席執行官 Mary Barra；通用汽車執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Paul Jacobson； Dan Berce，通用汽車金融總裁兼首席執行官； Cruise 的首席執行官 Kyle Vogt 也將與我們一起參加電話會議的問答環節。

Before we begin, I would like to direct your attention to the forward-looking statements on the first page of our presentation. The content of our call will be governed by this language.

在我們開始之前，我想請您注意我們演示文稿第一頁上的前瞻性陳述。我們的通話內容將受此語言約束。

And with that, I'm happy to turn the call over to Mary.

有了這個，我很高興把電話轉給瑪麗。

Thanks, Ashish, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the call today. As you have seen in our press release and other materials, GM delivered $2.3 billion of EBIT-adjusted in the second quarter, which is in line with the update we shared on July 1. We also remain on track to deliver our full year guidance, which includes EBIT-adjusted of between $13 billion and $15 billion. This is a truly unique and dynamic market that presents both challenges and opportunities for GM.

謝謝，Ashish，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入電話會議。正如您在我們的新聞稿和其他材料中看到的那樣，通用汽車在第二季度實現了 23 億美元的調整後息稅前利潤，這與我們在 7 月 1 日分享的最新情況一致。我們也將繼續按計劃提供全年指導，其中包括調整後的 130 億至 150 億美元的息稅前利潤。這是一個真正獨特且充滿活力的市場，為通用汽車帶來了挑戰和機遇。

Overall, GM production continues to improve year-over-year despite some short-term challenges, and we are on track to increase our wholesales by 25% to 30%, in line with our expectations for the year. This has helped us extend our U.S. truck leadership, where demand is the strongest and supplies are well below optimal.

總體而言，儘管存在一些短期挑戰，但通用汽車產量繼續同比增長，我們有望將批發量增加 25% 至 30%，符合我們對今年的預期。這幫助我們擴大了我們在美國卡車的領導地位，那裡的需求最為強勁，而供應遠低於最佳水平。

The Chevrolet Silverado and the GMC Sierra led the industry in total full-size pickup sales in 2020 and in 2021. We continue to lead in 2022 by a wide margin. In fact, our retail market share in the first half is up 2 percentage points to 40%.

雪佛蘭 Silverado 和 GMC Sierra 在 2020 年和 2021 年的全尺寸皮卡總銷量中處於行業領先地位。我們在 2022 年繼續大幅領先。事實上，上半年我們的零售市場份額上升了 2 個百分點，達到 40%。

But even as we operate our truck plants at near full capacity, our inventory has remained extremely low due to continued strong demand. The stock on the ground for GM full-size pickups has been in the mid-teens in terms of days supply for more than 90 days. For full-size SUVs, it's below 10. This helps explain why we continued building trucks in June even though we couldn't ship everything right away due to supply chain issues. The facts are the customers are there for our vehicles. They've been waiting, and all indications are they remain ready to buy.

但即使我們的卡車工廠幾乎滿負荷運轉，由於需求持續強勁，我們的庫存仍然極低。就 90 多天的供應天數而言，通用汽車全尺寸皮卡的地面庫存一直在十幾歲左右。對於全尺寸 SUV，它低於 10。這有助於解釋為什麼我們在 6 月繼續製造卡車，儘管由於供應鏈問題我們無法立即發貨。事實是我們的車輛有客戶。他們一直在等待，所有跡像都表明他們仍然準備好購買。

While demand remains strong, there are growing concerns about the economy to be sure. That's why we're already taking proactive steps to manage costs and cash flows, including reducing some discretionary spending and limiting hiring to critical needs and positions that support growth. In addition, we have modeled several downturn scenarios, and we are prepared to take more deliberate action when and if necessary.

儘管需求依然強勁，但可以肯定的是，人們對經濟的擔憂越來越大。這就是為什麼我們已經採取積極措施來管理成本和現金流，包括減少一些可自由支配的支出，並將招聘限制在支持增長的關鍵需求和職位上。此外，我們已經模擬了幾種低迷情景，我們準備在必要時採取更慎重的行動。

Regardless of the circumstances, we continue to move forward from a position of strength. We have a foundation of strong earnings and cash flow, an investment-grade credit rating, historically low pension obligation and outstanding vehicles, services and pricing. I like our position, and I wouldn't trade it with anyone in our industry. All of this will help us continue to execute our growth strategy and insulate it from short-term market challenges.

無論情況如何，我們都將繼續從實力地位向前邁進。我們擁有強勁的收益和現金流、投資級信用評級、歷史最低的養老金義務以及出色的工具、服務和定價。我喜歡我們的職位，我不會與我們行業的任何人進行交易。所有這些都將幫助我們繼續執行我們的增長戰略，並使其免受短期市場挑戰的影響。

Cruise is an example. Without question, the Cruise team's launch of fully driverless commercial operations in San Francisco in June was historic. The next steps for Cruise in the second half include working with regulators to increase their hours of operation and service area, expanding their fleet of Bolt AVs and testing the Cruise Origin. And as always, we are committed to safety as Cruise expands.

克魯斯就是一個例子。毫無疑問，Cruise 團隊 6 月在舊金山推出完全無人駕駛的商業運營具有歷史意義。 Cruise 下半年的下一步工作包括與監管機構合作，增加運營時間和服務區域，擴大 Bolt AV 車隊並測試 Cruise Origin。與往常一樣，隨著 Cruise 的擴張，我們致力於確保安全。

Kyle Vogt and I will have much more to share about Cruise on September 12 at the Goldman Sachs Technology Conference in San Francisco. We will also host our own event later that day for investors and analysts, including an opportunity to experience a fully driverless ride.

Kyle Vogt 和我將於 9 月 12 日在舊金山舉行的高盛技術大會上分享更多關於 Cruise 的信息。我們還將在當天晚些時候為投資者和分析師舉辦我們自己的活動，包括體驗完全無人駕駛的機會。

Another major highlight was the first customer deliveries of the Cadillac LYRIQ earlier this month. We are extremely proud of the LYRIQ, and it has received almost universal praise from the media, who says it stands with the Escalade as one of the best Cadillacs we've ever done. I can't wait until everyone sees the CELESTIQ in person.

另一個主要亮點是本月早些時候凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 的首批客戶交付。我們為 LYRIQ 感到非常自豪，它幾乎得到了媒體的普遍讚譽，媒體稱它與 Escalade 並駕齊驅，是我們做過的最好的凱迪拉克之一。我等不及每個人都親眼看到 CELESTIQ。

Nearly 70% of the LYRIQ reservation holders are new to Cadillac, and 30% are from the West Coast. This is very similar to what we're seeing with the HUMMER EV, where 75% of reservation holders are new to GMC with a very heavy concentration in California, Texas and Florida.

近 70% 的 LYRIQ 預訂持有者是凱迪拉克的新手，30% 來自西海岸。這與我們在悍馬 EV 上看到的情況非常相似，其中 75% 的預訂持有者是 GMC 的新手，主要集中在加利福尼亞、德克薩斯和佛羅里達。

And looking ahead to early spring 2023, anticipation for the Chevrolet Silverado EV continues to build. We now have more than 150,000 reservations, and the average fleet customer is requesting more than 200 trucks. The reaction to the Chevrolet Blazer EV has also been very enthusiastic. We think the media who says it's going to shake up the electric SUV market, thanks to its design, technology, range and pricing, are spot on. Chevrolet will follow it up in September when it reveals even more affordable Equinox EV.

展望 2023 年初春，人們對雪佛蘭 Silverado EV 的期待繼續升溫。我們現在有超過 150,000 個預訂，平均車隊客戶要求超過 200 輛卡車。對雪佛蘭 Blazer EV 的反應也非常熱烈。我們認為，由於其設計、技術、範圍和定價，將動搖電動 SUV 市場的媒體是正確的。雪佛蘭將在 9 月推出更實惠的 Equinox EV 時跟進。

And the ownership experience for all of our EV customers will be enhanced by agreements like the one we just signed with the Pilot Company to expand our Ultium 360 charging network to facilitate interstate travel. Together with EVgo, GM and Pilot plan to install 2,000 DC fast charger stalls at 50-mile intervals along U.S. interstate highways with special benefits for GM owners like exclusive reservations and discounts on charging. With Pilot investing $1 billion to upgrade their customer service, we are confident that this will be a very good solution for our customers.

我們所有 EV 客戶的擁有體驗將通過我們剛剛與試點公司簽署的協議來增強，以擴展我們的 Ultium 360 充電網絡以促進州際旅行。與 EVgo 一起，通用汽車和 Pilot 計劃在美國州際高速公路上以 50 英里的間隔安裝 2,000 個直流快速充電站，為通用汽車車主提供獨家預訂和充電折扣等特殊優惠。 Pilot 投資 10 億美元來升級他們的客戶服務，我們相信這對我們的客戶來說將是一個非常好的解決方案。

And as our EV strategy scales, the key question investors frequently ask is, how will you build enough batteries when competition for raw materials is intensifying? And as I've said, our strategy is to control our own destiny, and that includes building cells in partnership with LG Energy Solution.

隨著我們電動汽車戰略的擴展，投資者經常問的關鍵問題是，當原材料競爭加劇時，您將如何製造足夠的電池？正如我所說，我們的戰略是控制自己的命運，這包括與 LG Energy Solution 合作建造電池。

We are just weeks away from the launch of the 7-day operations at the first Ultium Cells JV plant in Ohio. Then each quarter, the plant will add 20% to its capacity, reaching the full 35 gigawatt per hour capacity in Q4 of 2023. Securing cells from this plant are key to significantly ramping up production of the GMC HUMMER EV and the Cadillac LYRIQ to beat pent-up demand.

我們距離在俄亥俄州的第一家 Ultium Cells 合資工廠啟動為期 7 天的運營只有幾週的時間。然後每個季度，該工廠的產能將增加 20%，到 2023 年第四季度達到每小時 35 吉瓦的全部產能。從該工廠獲得電池是顯著提高 GMC HUMMER EV 和凱迪拉克 LYRIQ 產量的關鍵被壓抑的需求。

The second cell plant, which is under construction in Tennessee, is on track to open next year. And just last month, iron workers and our construction partners installed the final beam in a topping-out ceremony.

正在田納西州建設的第二家電池工廠有望於明年開業。就在上個月，鋼鐵工人和我們的建築合作夥伴在封頂儀式上安裝了最後一根梁。

In Lansing, Michigan, the site of the third cell plant, the foundation work is underway, and steel work will begin in August. And that plant opens in 2024. And the team is also making good progress towards selecting the site for the fourth U.S. cell, which will take our projected total battery capacity to 160 gigawatts.

在密歇根州蘭辛，第三個電池工廠的所在地，基礎工作正在進行中，鋼鐵工作將於 8 月開始。該工廠將於 2024 年投產。該團隊還在為第四個美國電池選址方面取得了良好進展，這將使我們預計的電池總容量達到 160 吉瓦。

What's happening upstream with these plants is just as critical to our long-term success. On previous calls, we had talked about all of the fully executed supply agreements GM has secured for EV raw materials and components.

這些工廠上游發生的事情對我們的長期成功同樣重要。在之前的電話會議中，我們談到了通用汽車為電動汽車原材料和零部件獲得的所有完全執行的供應協議。

Today, we are announcing 3 more binding supply agreements. The first is with LG Chem, who will supply us with approximately 1 million tons of cathode material between now and 2030. We've also reached agreement with POSCO Chemical to supply us with CAM from their Korean operations from 2023 to 2025.

今天，我們宣布了另外 3 項具有約束力的供應協議。首先是與 LG Chem 合作，從現在到 2030 年，LG Chem 將向我們供應約 100 萬噸正極材料。我們還與 POSCO Chemical 達成協議，從 2023 年到 2025 年從他們的韓國業務中向我們供應 CAM。

The third is a multiyear supply agreement with Livent to secure significant quantities of lithium. What this means is GM now has binding agreements securing all battery raw materials supporting our goal of 1 million units in annual capacity in North America in 2025. This includes lithium, nickel, cobalt and the full CAM supply.

第三個是與 Livent 簽訂的多年供應協議，以確保大量鋰。這意味著通用汽車現在簽署了具有約束力的協議，確保所有電池原材料的安全，支持我們在 2025 年在北美實現年產能 100 萬輛的目標。這包括鋰、鎳、鈷和完整的 CAM 供應。

As we move forward, we will increasingly localize our supply chain just as we have localized battery cell production. For example, due diligence is already underway to further expand capacity at the JV CAM and CAM precursor facility GM and POSCO Chemical are building in Quebec.

隨著我們前進，我們將越來越本地化我們的供應鏈，就像我們本地化電池生產一樣。例如，已經在進行盡職調查，以進一步擴大合資公司 CAM 和 CAM 前體設施 GM 和 POSCO Chemical 正在魁北克建設的產能。

GM and LG Chem will explore the localization of a CAM production facility in North America by the end of 2025. And Livent has a goal to transition 100% of the lithium hydroxide they are processing for GM to the U.S.

通用汽車和 LG Chem 將在 2025 年底前探索北美 CAM 生產設施的本地化。Livent 的目標是將他們為通用汽車加工的氫氧化鋰 100% 轉移到美國。

I want to thank the team for their hard work to deliver this critical milestone, which includes close to 20 individual supply agreements. And I also want to thank our supplier partners. I use the word milestone deliberately because we are planning significant volume growth to meet our Investor Day commitment of $90 billion in annual EV revenue by 2030. That means our supply chain must be even more scalable, sustainable and resilient.

我要感謝團隊為實現這一關鍵里程碑所做的辛勤工作，其中包括近 20 份單獨的供應協議。我還要感謝我們的供應商合作夥伴。我特意使用里程碑這個詞，因為我們計劃大幅增長銷量，以實現我們在 2030 年之前實現 900 億美元年度電動汽車收入的投資者日承諾。這意味著我們的供應鏈必須更具可擴展性、可持續性和彈性。

To that end, the team is building on existing supplier relationships and forging new ones. And for certain commodities, we will direct source up to 75% of our needs through 2030 with a focus on North America. We think this strategy will mitigate risk, drive down costs and help us deliver upside volume opportunities.

為此，該團隊正在建立現有的供應商關係並建立新的關係。對於某些商品，到 2030 年，我們將直接採購多達 75% 的需求，重點是北美。我們認為這一策略將降低風險、降低成本並幫助我們提供數量上揚的機會。

As you can see from these examples, every part of the company is rising to meet today's challenges. And we are adapting, changing and innovating to execute our pivot to EVs. We are being thorough, collaborative and leaving nothing to chance. And that's how we have made such huge strides and why we are so confident in our future.

正如您從這些示例中看到的那樣，公司的每個部分都在奮起迎接今天的挑戰。我們正在適應、改變和創新，以執行我們轉向電動汽車的重心。我們是徹底的，協作的，不留任何機會。這就是我們取得如此巨大進步的原因，也是我們對未來充滿信心的原因。

So thank you, and now I'll turn it over to Paul.

所以謝謝你，現在我會把它交給保羅。

Thanks, Mary, and good morning, everyone. I'm extremely proud of the team's execution in Q2 and remain excited about our future. We are at the beginning of an accelerating EV product ramp that we believe will drive a continuous increase in revenue as we transition to an all-electric future.

謝謝，瑪麗，大家早上好。我為團隊在第二季度的表現感到非常自豪，並對我們的未來感到興奮。我們正處於電動汽車產品加速增長的開端，我們相信隨著我們向全電動未來的過渡，這將推動收入的持續增長。

And as Mary highlighted, we're making significant progress on several fronts, including Cruise commercialization and our battery supply chain. Just yesterday, the Department of Energy announced a conditional commitment to Ultium Cells LLC, our 50-50 joint venture to manufacture battery cells, for a $2.5 billion loan to help fund the construction of our battery cell manufacturing facilities in Ohio, Tennessee and Michigan, supporting our goal of the secure battery materials and technology supply chain here in North America. We're also finalizing the deals of GM's sustainable finance framework, which will unlock options to help us align our balance sheet with our ESG strategy.

正如 Mary 強調的那樣，我們在多個方面取得了重大進展，包括 Cruise 商業化和我們的電池供應鏈。就在昨天，能源部宣布有條件地承諾向我們的 50-50 電池製造合資企業 Ultium Cells LLC 提供 25 億美元的貸款，以幫助資助我們在俄亥俄州、田納西州和密歇根州的電池製造設施的建設，支持我們在北美實現安全電池材料和技術供應鏈的目標。我們還在敲定通用汽車可持續金融框架的交易，這將釋放選項，幫助我們將資產負債表與 ESG 戰略保持一致。

Now let's get into the Q2 results. We generated $35.8 billion in revenue, up $1.6 billion year-over-year driven by strong pricing and slightly higher volume. We generated $2.3 billion in EBIT-adjusted, 6.6% EBIT-adjusted margin and $1.14 per share in EPS diluted adjusted, all within the $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion EBIT-adjusted range laid out earlier this month.

現在讓我們進入第二季度的結果。我們創造了 358 億美元的收入，在強勁的定價和略高的銷量的推動下，同比增長了 16 億美元。我們的 EBIT 調整後利潤率為 23 億美元，EBIT 調整後利潤率為 6.6%，攤薄後每股收益為 1.14 美元，均在本月早些時候規定的 23 億至 26 億美元的 EBIT 調整範圍內。

Our results were impacted by the short-term tactical decision to build more than 90,000 North American vehicles without certain components with revenue retime from Q2 into the second half of 2022. The supply chain challenges causing the company vehicle inventory buildup primarily occurred in June and have continued in July, affecting some of our plans. While this is frustrating, we've built some of this uncertainty into our full year guidance.

我們的業績受到短期戰術決定的影響，該決定是在 2022 年第二季度至 2022 年下半年重新安排收入重新安排時間的 90,000 多輛不帶某些部件的北美汽車。導致公司車輛庫存增加的供應鏈挑戰主要發生在 6 月，並且已經7 月繼續，影響了我們的一些計劃。雖然這令人沮喪，但我們已將其中一些不確定性納入我們的全年指導。

Some of these vehicles will be quick to complete. In fact, we've already wholesaled about 15,000 vehicles with the expectation to get through substantially all of the vehicles by the end of the year, with about 50% in Q3 and 50% in Q4. Despite these challenges, we've seen a continuous year-over-year volume improvement, Q1 up 1%, Q2 up 7%. And we expect Q3 to be up 90% to 100% year-over-year as we lap the significant impacts experienced in Q3 '21 and the retime vehicles, and Q4 to be up 20% to 30%, remaining on track to increase our 2022 wholesales by 25% to 30% year-over-year as we guided to at the beginning of the year.

其中一些車輛將很快完成。事實上，我們已經批發了大約 15,000 輛汽車，預計到今年年底將基本完成所有車輛，第三季度約為 50%，第四季度為 50%。儘管存在這些挑戰，但我們看到銷量同比持續增長，第一季度增長 1%，第二季度增長 7%。我們預計第三季度將同比增長 90% 至 100%，因為我們經歷了 21 年第三季度和重新計時車輛所經歷的重大影響，第四季度將增長 20% 至 30%，繼續按計劃增加我們的正如我們在年初所指導的那樣，2022 年的批發量同比增長 25% 至 30%。

Adjusted automotive free cash flow was $1.4 billion for the quarter, down $1.1 billion year-over-year driven primarily by higher CapEx related to EV investments and the impact of holding these vehicles built without certain components in the company inventory.

本季度調整後的汽車自由現金流為 14 億美元，同比下降 11 億美元，這主要是由於與電動汽車投資相關的資本支出增加以及持有這些車輛在公司庫存中沒有某些組件的影響。

Let's take a closer look at North America. In Q2, North America delivered EBIT-adjusted of $2.3 billion, down $600 million year-over-year and EBIT-adjusted margins of 8% driven by higher commodity costs and investments in growth, partially offset by strong pricing across our portfolio, but especially on our full-size trucks and SUVs and the nonrecurrence of 2021 recall cost.

讓我們仔細看看北美。在第二季度，北美地區的 EBIT 調整後為 23 億美元，同比下降 6 億美元，經 EBIT 調整後的利潤率為 8%，主要受商品成本上升和增長投資的推動，部分被我們投資組合的強勁定價所抵消，但尤其是我們的全尺寸卡車和 SUV 以及 2021 年召回成本的非重複性。

Our mix was primarily impacted by the more than 90,000 vehicles built without certain components, about 75% of these being full-size trucks and SUVs. As Mary mentioned, new vehicles have continued to turn very quickly, and U.S. dealer inventory remains tight at around 250,000 units with much of this inventory in transit.

我們的產品組合主要受到 90,000 多輛沒有特定部件的車輛的影響，其中約 75% 是全尺寸卡車和 SUV。正如瑪麗所說，新車繼續快速轉向，美國經銷商庫存仍然緊張，約為 250,000 輛，其中大部分庫存在運輸中。

Inventory on dealer lots continues to be only 10 to 15 days. We continue to watch this very closely, but the consistently tight inventory on dealer lots over the last several quarters and months demonstrates the strong demand for our vehicles.

經銷商批次的庫存仍然只有 10 到 15 天。我們將繼續密切關注這一點，但過去幾個季度和幾個月經銷商批次的持續緊張庫存表明對我們車輛的強勁需求。

Truck ATPs have continued to be very strong at over $60,000, and Denali continues to be a strength for GMC, accounting for nearly half of the total Yukon sales this year. Our truck and SUV customers have been asking for a broader range of choices, including premium options, which we are delivering on with the GMC Denali Ultimate, the GMC AT4X and the Cadillac Escalade V-Series. The investments we have made in these vehicles over the last couple of years, including the significant refresh to our full-size light-duty trucks earlier this year, provide a strong bridge to our all-electric future.

卡車 ATP 繼續保持強勁勢頭，超過 60,000 美元，而 Denali 繼續成為 GMC 的強項，佔育空地區今年總銷售額的近一半。我們的卡車和 SUV 客戶一直在尋求更廣泛的選擇，包括高級選項，我們通過 GMC Denali Ultimate、GMC AT4X 和凱迪拉克 Escalade V 系列提供這些選項。我們在過去幾年對這些車輛的投資，包括今年早些時候對我們的全尺寸輕型卡車的重大更新，為我們的全電動未來提供了堅實的橋樑。

Now let's move on to GM International. GMI delivered second quarter EBIT-adjusted of $200 million. This included $100 million of equity loss in China, down $350 million year-over-year driven primarily by their COVID-related impacts.

現在讓我們繼續討論通用汽車國際。 GMI 第二季度的 EBIT 調整後為 2 億美元。這包括在中國的 1 億美元股權損失，同比下降 3.5 億美元，主要是由於其與 COVID 相關的影響。

However, we saw an improvement starting in June with production levels beginning to recover. The China team continues to navigate a very dynamic and difficult environment, both personally and professionally. I can't thank them enough for their efforts this quarter.

但是，我們看到從 6 月開始有所改善，生產水平開始恢復。中國團隊繼續在一個充滿活力和困難的環境中駕馭個人和專業。我不能對他們本季度的努力表示足夠的感謝。

EBIT-adjusted in GMI excluding China equity income was $300 million, up over $500 million year-over-year with results driven by favorable pricing, volume and mix, partially offset by commodity, logistics and semiconductor impacts. These results also include a mark-to-market gain of around $150 million.

GMI 調整後的息稅前利潤（不包括中國股權收入）為 3 億美元，同比增長超過 5 億美元，這得益於有利的定價、數量和組合，部分被商品、物流和半導體影響所抵消。這些結果還包括約 1.5 億美元的市值收益。

The GMI results excluding China equity income and mark-to-market gain was a record Q2 and first half. The progress the team has made over the last couple of years has been impressive, and I look forward to the team continuing to build upon that momentum.

剔除中國股票收入和按市值計價收益的 GMI 業績在第二季度和上半年創下歷史新高。團隊在過去幾年中取得的進步令人印象深刻，我期待團隊繼續在這一勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。

A few comments on GM Financial and corporate expenses. GM Financial once again delivered solid results driven by strong used vehicle prices with Q2 EBT-adjusted of $1.1 billion, down $500 million year-over-year primarily due to the reserve adjustments made last year. Corporate expenses were $700 million in the quarter, up $700 million year-over-year driven primarily by differences in year-over-year mark-to-market changes in the portfolio.

關於通用汽車財務和公司費用的一些評論。在二手車價格強勁的推動下，通用金融再次取得了穩健的業績，第二季度 EBT 調整後為 11 億美元，同比下降 5 億美元，這主要是由於去年進行的準備金調整。本季度公司支出為 7 億美元，同比增長 7 億美元，主要是由於投資組合中按年計價變化的差異。

Moving to Cruise, which we are very excited about. We believe the autonomous opportunities go well beyond the robotaxi business, including delivery, personal vehicles and a commercial application with BrightDrop. Cruise expenses of $550 million for the quarter are consistent with the run rate we would expect for the remainder of the year.

搬到克魯斯，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們相信自動駕駛的機會遠遠超出了機器人出租車業務，包括交付、個人車輛和 BrightDrop 的商業應用。本季度 5.5 億美元的郵輪費用與我們對今年剩餘時間的預期運行率一致。

Now let's turn to our second half outlook. As we indicated earlier in the month, we're confident in achieving our full year 2022 guidance range metrics, including EBIT-adjusted in the range of $13 billion to $15 billion and North America margins of 10%.

現在讓我們轉向下半年的展望。正如我們在本月早些時候指出的那樣，我們有信心實現我們的 2022 年全年指導範圍指標，包括調整後的息稅前利潤在 130 億美元至 150 億美元之間，北美利潤率為 10%。

We see tailwinds with volume, including completing the vehicles in company inventory. Pricing remains strong and has held up more than we estimated at the beginning of the year, helping partially offset the incremental commodity costs.

我們看到了數量的順風，包括完成公司庫存中的車輛。定價依然強勁，並且比我們年初估計的要高，有助於部分抵消增加的商品成本。

We are encouraged to see some moderation in the spot prices of certain raw materials, but the timing of the flow-through of this benefit into earnings varies by commodity and typically lags. We would not expect to see a meaningful impact until later in the year and into 2023.

我們很高興看到某些原材料的現貨價格有所放緩，但這種收益轉化為收益的時間因商品而異，而且通常滯後。我們預計要到今年晚些時候和 2023 年才會看到有意義的影響。

We're also incurring significantly higher logistics costs, including premium freight, to overcome some of the supply chain challenges, which is offsetting some of the moderation in raw material costs. With these puts and takes in commodity and logistics costs, we still expect about a $5 billion year-over-year headwind impacting our global operations with the expectation to offset with cost and pricing actions.

我們還承擔了顯著更高的物流成本，包括溢價運費，以克服一些供應鏈挑戰，這抵消了原材料成本的部分放緩。有了這些商品和物流成本的投入和投入，我們仍然預計每年將有約 50 億美元的逆風影響我們的全球業務，並有望通過成本和定價行動來抵消。

GM Financial is currently trending towards the high end of the expected $3.5 billion to $4 billion full year EBT range with some moderation anticipated in the second half as credit and used vehicle prices are expected to normalize somewhat. There are also other cost headwinds in the back half of the year, including some seasonality, growth investments and initiatives to drive EV adoption and expand charging infrastructure. However, we will be nimble in bringing on these costs at the appropriate time and remain prudent in our spending to ensure we meet our growth commitments.

通用汽車金融目前正朝著預期的 35 億美元至 40 億美元全年 EBT 範圍的高端發展，預計下半年會有所放緩，因為信貸和二手車價格預計會有所恢復。今年下半年還存在其他成本不利因素，包括一些季節性因素、增長投資以及推動電動汽車採用和擴大充電基礎設施的舉措。但是，我們將在適當的時候靈活地承擔這些成本，並在支出方面保持謹慎，以確保我們實現增長承諾。

In summary, the first half of the year, we've seen strong pricing and continue to see a recovery in volumes. We've executed well on the things we can control, and we remain focused on our growth opportunities.

總而言之，今年上半年，我們看到了強勁的定價，並繼續看到銷量回升。我們在可以控制的事情上執行得很好，我們仍然專注於我們的增長機會。

We're starting to see the benefits of the EV and battery investments made over the last several years. And vehicles such as the Cadillac LYRIQ, the GMC HUMMER EV Pickup validate that we have transitioned our engineering and manufacturing expertise to EVs.

我們開始看到過去幾年對電動汽車和電池投資的好處。凱迪拉克 LYRIQ、GMC HUMMER EV Pickup 等車輛證明我們已經將我們的工程和製造專業知識轉移到了電動汽車上。

We're laser-focused on execution, and what you've seen is just the start of a transformative period for GM. We are strategically building an EV portfolio in the luxury, SUV and truck segments to produce vehicles with great design at the right price points for customers and at the margins we come to expect.

我們專注於執行，而您所看到的只是通用汽車轉型期的開始。我們正在戰略性地在豪華車、SUV 和卡車領域構建 EV 產品組合，以便以合適的價格為客戶生產設計出色的汽車，並以我們預期的利潤率。

This concludes our opening comments, and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call.

我們的開場評論到此結束，我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli of Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗的 Itay Michaeli。

Just 2 questions for me. Just first, I was hoping you could dive a little bit deeper into the price mix assumptions you have in the second half of the year. Maybe also if you can quantify the logistics headwind, Paul, you just referenced.

對我來說只有2個問題。首先，我希望你能更深入地了解下半年的價格組合假設。也許你也可以量化物流逆風，保羅，你剛剛提到。

And second question, Mary, in the shareholder letter, I think you mentioned modeling a number of downturn scenarios and actions you can take. I was hoping we could expand a bit more about how you're thinking about various macro scenarios and options that you have and sort of maybe the range of kind of your earnings and free cash outcomes we should think about under kind of reasonable downturn scenarios.

第二個問題，瑪麗，在股東信中，我想你提到了對一些低迷情景和你可以採取的行動進行建模。我希望我們可以更多地了解您如何考慮您擁有的各種宏觀情景和選擇，以及在合理的低迷情景下我們應該考慮的您的收入和自由現金結果的範圍。

Yes. So Itay, I'll start on the inflation pieces and the mix side. So if you look at the inflation that we saw in the quarter, I would say about half of it is commodity driven. And then about the other half is split between logistics and other supply chain challenges that we've seen before.

是的。所以Itay，我將從通貨膨脹部分和混合方面開始。因此，如果您查看我們在本季度看到的通脹，我會說其中大約一半是商品驅動的。然後大約另一半是我們以前見過的物流和其他供應鏈挑戰之間的分裂。

I think -- the thing I'm excited about in the quarter is that when you look at inflation, the pricing and the mix was able to offset largely all of that inflation as we expected it to do. I think where the second quarter challenges manifested is, obviously, we were expecting higher volumes. We've been dealing with some of these chip issues for the last couple of years. This one was a little bit late breaking, which affected the volume and the mix on the quarter.

我認為 - 我在本季度感到興奮的是，當您查看通貨膨脹時，定價和組合能夠像我們預期的那樣在很大程度上抵消所有通貨膨脹。我認為，顯然，第二季度的挑戰體現在我們預計銷量會更高的地方。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在處理其中的一些芯片問題。這個有點晚了，這影響了本季度的成交量和組合。

Otherwise, I think it was a really good quarter. And we feel good about making up all that volume in the back half of the year as we've outlined. So I think with the vehicles being completed out of that inventory, we should see a little bit of a richer mix in Q3 and Q4 largely because of the truck side of it. But that's going to help us keep us on track to the $13 billion to $15 billion.

否則，我認為這是一個非常好的季度。正如我們所概述的那樣，我們對在今年下半年彌補所有這些交易量感到滿意。因此，我認為隨著車輛從庫存中完成，我們應該會在第三季度和第四季度看到更豐富的組合，這主要是因為它的卡車方面。但這將幫助我們保持在 130 億至 150 億美元的軌道上。

And from a downturn perspective, we're looking at, I'll say, moderate downturn and a more severe. And we know the actions that we would take. As I mentioned, we've already started to reduce discretionary spending, but we are doing critical skill hires because we feel we're positioned right now to continue executing our EV strategy even with some of the different things that might hit us.

從低迷的角度來看，我會說，我們看到的是溫和的低迷和更嚴重的低迷。我們知道我們將採取的行動。正如我所提到的，我們已經開始減少可自由支配的支出，但我們正在招聘關鍵技能，因為我們覺得我們現在已經準備好繼續執行我們的電動汽車戰略，即使有一些不同的事情可能會打擊我們。

And Itay, it's a really unique time because there are so many factors that are very positive. As I mentioned, we're still seeing strong demand, but there are some indicators that look -- that create uncertainty for the future.

Itay，這是一個非常獨特的時期，因為有很多非常積極的因素。正如我所提到的，我們仍然看到強勁的需求，但有一些指標看起來 - 為未來帶來了不確定性。

So we've done a lot in preparation. If you go back to the transformation that we did in 2018 and 2019 and we completed in 2020, that took out about $4 billion to $4.5 billion of cost. We also have systematically reduced vehicles and exited unprofitable segments and regions.

所以我們做了很多準備。如果你回到我們在 2018 年和 2019 年進行的轉型，並且我們在 2020 年完成了轉型，那將花費大約 40 億至 45 億美元的成本。我們還繫統地減少了車輛並退出了無利可圖的細分市場和地區。

You've seen about a $2 billion improvement in GMI versus 2018. And we've done significant restructuring in India, Southeast Asia and Russia as well as retiring the Holden brand in Australia. So the steps that we're taking right now is continue to focus on eliminating complexity reduction, not only in our ICE lineup, but also in our EV lineup to be very customer-focused.

您已經看到 GMI 與 2018 年相比增加了大約 20 億美元。我們在印度、東南亞和俄羅斯進行了重大重組，並在澳大利亞淘汰了霍頓品牌。因此，我們現在採取的步驟是繼續專注於消除複雜性降低，不僅在我們的 ICE 陣容中，而且在我們的 EV 陣容中都非常以客戶為中心。

We've done a lot as it relates to reuse, driving manufacturing efficiencies, go-to-market where we're finding efficiencies that we can actually reduce the cost of selling a vehicle and then our overall fixed cost. And so we -- again, it's hard to predict exactly what the margins would be depending on what happens, where is demand.

我們在重複使用、提高製造效率、進入市場方面做了很多工作，我們正在尋找效率，我們實際上可以降低銷售車輛的成本，然後是我們的整體固定成本。所以我們 - 再次，很難準確預測利潤率將取決於發生的事情，需求在哪裡。

What we're seeing right now, we're still seeing strong demand for our products and frankly, as Paul said, even going in the second half of the year a higher mix. But believe me, we've run many different scenarios, and we know the steps. We've taken a lot of steps already, but we know the steps we would take if the situation went in a different direction.

我們現在看到的是，我們仍然看到對我們產品的強勁需求，坦率地說，正如保羅所說，甚至在下半年會有更高的組合。但請相信我，我們已經運行了許多不同的場景，並且我們知道這些步驟。我們已經採取了很多措施，但我們知道如果情況朝著不同的方向發展，我們會採取哪些措施。

The next question will come from John Murphy of Bank of America.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

I just wanted to ask first on the supply chain readiness from sort of the chip side and also from other suppliers. I mean, Mary, do you think about this -- I mean, if we had like a 20% improvement in chip supply, what would that mean for volume? I would imagine just given what's going on with content and mix that it wouldn't sort of result in a 20% improvement in unit volumes. Just trying to understand that.

我只是想首先詢問芯片方面以及其他供應商的供應鏈準備情況。我的意思是，瑪麗，你有沒有想過這個問題——我的意思是，如果我們的芯片供應量提高了 20%，這對產量意味著什麼？我可以想像，只要考慮到內容和混合的情況，它不會導致單位體積增加 20%。只是試圖理解這一點。

And then also on the supply chain readiness, we're hearing lots of anecdotal stories about suppliers having a hard time getting human capital or labor and being concerned about the working capital relined as volumes ultimately recover.

然後在供應鏈準備方面，我們聽到了很多關於供應商難以獲得人力資本或勞動力的軼事故事，並且擔心隨著銷量最終恢復而重新調整營運資金。

Yes. Each supplier, depending on where they're located, I think, is facing different circumstances and situation. And we have a team in our supply chain group that works with each of these suppliers.

是的。我認為，每個供應商都面臨著不同的情況和情況，具體取決於他們所在的位置。我們的供應鏈小組中有一個團隊，與這些供應商中的每一個合作。

First, what we do is we go in and try to help them address their costs, figure out what we need to do to get the right resources. And so it's a very active group right now as we work across the supply chain because we know we need to have suppliers who are healthy, can get and hire the people that they need, that they're trained and that they can deliver high-quality parts to us. So I would say there's ongoing work. And there are a lot of anecdotal stories, but we just work each and every one.

首先，我們所做的是我們進入並嘗試幫助他們解決成本問題，弄清楚我們需要做些什麼來獲得正確的資源。因此，當我們在整個供應鏈中工作時，它現在是一個非常活躍的群體，因為我們知道我們需要有健康的供應商，能夠獲得和僱用他們需要的人，他們接受過培訓，並且能夠提供高品質的服務。優質零件給我們。所以我會說正在進行的工作。並且有很多軼事故事，但我們只是每一個都工作。

As it relates to the semiconductors, we do see impact from semis into next year. And -- but I think depending on where we're at with demand, right now, it's hard to exactly forecast what will happen because we're selling every vehicle we can make right now.

由於它與半導體有關，我們確實看到了半導體對明年的影響。而且 - 但我認為根據我們目前的需求情況，很難準確預測會發生什麼，因為我們正在銷售我們現在可以製造的每一輛車。

And we think there's an opportunity -- we're at suboptimal levels from an inventory days on the field. We'll never go back to where we were before the pandemic. But right now, it's a little too lean.

我們認為這是一個機會——從現場的庫存天數來看，我們處於次優水平。我們永遠不會回到大流行之前的狀態。但現在，它有點太瘦了。

So even as we are hoping and what we see now is that we have strong demand, let's remember, we have new refreshed full-size trucks. Our SUVs are, again, very strong with the enhancements that we made. And so if that -- even as -- or if I should say, if we get to a more normalized level that we aren't -- don't have pent-up demand for full-size trucks, SUVs and midsized crossovers, we still have some work to do to get a healthy level of inventory, a very lean but healthy level of inventory.

因此，即使我們希望並且我們現在看到的是我們有強勁的需求，讓我們記住，我們有新的更新的全尺寸卡車。我們的 SUV 再次因我們所做的改進而非常強大。因此，如果那 - 即使 - 或者我應該說，如果我們達到一個更正常的水平，我們沒有 - 對全尺寸卡車、SUV和中型跨界車沒有被壓抑的需求，我們仍然需要做一些工作才能獲得健康的庫存水平，一個非常精簡但健康的庫存水平。

So that's what we're focused on. And frankly, we need more chips to do that. And as we move and continue to put more technology in vehicles, we need even more semiconductors. That's why the strategy that we're putting in place for the 2026 time frame to have 3 families of semis that we leverage across our vehicles will give us much more stability, resilience and ability to transfer the semis to the segments that are most in demand.

所以這就是我們所關注的。坦率地說，我們需要更多的芯片來做到這一點。隨著我們不斷發展並繼續將更多技術應用於車輛，我們需要更多的半導體。這就是為什麼我們在 2026 年的時間框架內製定的戰略，以在我們的車輛中利用 3 個半成品系列，這將使我們具有更大的穩定性、彈性和將半成品轉移到需求最大的細分市場的能力。 .

I guess, Mary, just to follow up on it, more succinctly maybe, to get volume up 5% to 10%, would you need like a 10% to 15% improvement in chip supply or content? I'm just trying to understand. I mean there's a very -- I mean, there's a question of the shortage, and then there's a question of the growing content and mix. I mean, is there sort of like a 5% to 10% delta on content and mix that we should be thinking about roughly?

我想，瑪麗，只是為了跟進它，更簡潔地說，為了使銷量增加 5% 到 10%，你是否需要在芯片供應或內容方面提高 10% 到 15%？我只是想理解。我的意思是有一個非常 - 我的意思是，有一個短缺的問題，然後是一個不斷增長的內容和組合的問題。我的意思是，我們應該粗略地考慮一下內容和混合是否存在 5% 到 10% 的差異？

John, it so depends on what vehicle segments. I mean we do know trucks use more semiconductors. Full-size utilities use more semiconductors than a sedan. A lot of it depends on how much technology on the vehicle, for instance, Cruise or all of the power features. So it's really hard to make a -- just a swag of what that would be. But what I will basically say is if you get 20% more, it's not 20% more vehicles, that's for sure.

約翰，這取決於車輛的細分市場。我的意思是我們確實知道卡車使用更多的半導體。全尺寸公用事業使用的半導體比轎車多。這在很大程度上取決於車輛上有多少技術，例如巡航或所有動力功能。所以真的很難做一個——只是一個東西。但我基本上要說的是，如果你多獲得 20%，那肯定不是多 20% 的車輛。

Okay. I'm sorry, just my follow-up. When you said a severe and mild recession scenario planning, I mean, we've been in recession-level volumes for autos and certainly are this year in the U.S. and globally.

好的。對不起，只是我的後續。當您說嚴重和溫和的衰退情景規劃時，我的意思是，我們的汽車銷量一直處於衰退水平，今年在美國和全球當然也是如此。

When you think about mild and severe, I mean, how much volume downside are you guys kind of modeling it? Because it's kind of hard to believe there's really significant unit volume downside from where you've been traveling at least for the last 6 months for sure.

當你想到輕度和重度時，我的意思是，你們對它的建模有多大的音量下降？因為很難相信至少在過去 6 個月裡，你旅行的地方確實存在顯著的單位數量下降。

John, it's Paul. I think as we look at that, it becomes less a question about volume and more a question about pricing. So what do you have to do to stimulate the same volumes that we've seen? It's a rather unique circumstance because I don't think we've ever gone into the economic noise with as low SARs as we're seeing.

約翰，是保羅。我認為當我們看到這一點時，它不再是關於數量的問題，而是更多關於定價的問題。那麼你必須做些什麼來刺激我們看到的相同數量？這是一個相當獨特的情況，因為我認為我們從來沒有像我們所看到的那樣以低 SAR 陷入經濟噪音。

But a lot of that has been production. I think that's led to some of the pent-up demand that gives us confidence at least in the near term, in the midterm to continue to produce these vehicles and take the type of position that we took with the vehicles built without certain components. So I think it really comes down to more on the pricing on the consumer side. And all the data that we're seeing continues to give rise to strong demand for our products.

但其中很多都是生產的。我認為這導致了一些被壓抑的需求，至少在短期內，在中期，我們有信心繼續生產這些車輛，並採取我們在沒有某些部件的情況下製造的車輛所採取的立場。所以我認為這真的更多地取決於消費者方面的定價。我們看到的所有數據都繼續導致對我們產品的強勁需求。

The next question comes from Rod Lache of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

So until now, just on John's question, North American sales have been constrained by supply. And they still are. And as you said, the demand still feels very strong. But if you clear out that extra 90,000 units in the back half, it looks like inventories could recover.

所以直到現在，就約翰的問題而言，北美的銷售一直受到供應的限制。他們仍然是。正如你所說，需求仍然非常強勁。但如果你清除後半部額外的 90,000 台，庫存似乎可以恢復。

It depends on what sales do obviously, but they could recover to the 400,000, 500,000 unit range pretty easily in North America, so maybe 50, 60 days. Just from your last comment, Paul, do you think you may need to make some adjustments to address affordability of vehicles just given the magnitude of changes that we've seen over the past 2 years? Or are you kind of more inclined to throttle production in order to sort of keep the inventory in that 50- or 60-day range?

這顯然取決於銷售情況，但他們可以很容易地在北美恢復到 400,000、500,000 單位的範圍，所以可能需要 50、60 天。就您上次的評論，保羅，您是否認為您可能需要做出一些調整來解決車輛的可負擔性問題，因為我們在過去 2 年中看到了巨大的變化？還是您更傾向於限制生產以將庫存保持在 50 或 60 天的範圍內？

Yes. It's a fair question. I think when you look at the inventory levels as they sit right now, the overwhelming majority of the inventory is actually in transit. It's not on the dealer lots, which I think is very different than what we've seen in the past.

是的。這是一個公平的問題。我認為，當您查看當前的庫存水平時，絕大多數庫存實際上都在運輸中。它不在經銷商地段上，我認為這與我們過去看到的非常不同。

And as others have talked about, the logistics of getting vehicles to the dealers has been a little bit slower than normal. So I think as vehicles are getting to the dealers, they're continuing to turn very fast.

正如其他人所說，將車輛送到經銷商處的物流速度比正常情況要慢一些。因此，我認為隨著車輛到達經銷商處，它們會繼續快速轉向。

We're watching that closely. That's probably one of the key data points that I spend the most time thinking about, is the turn times once the vehicles come. So I think the pricing environment that we're in right now has been very good, very robust. And I think it demonstrates the demand for our products. So we've got to continue to monitor that and continue to watch it because the cash flow that we've got and running the business for cash flow is critical to help fund our journey in the EV transformation.

我們正在密切關注。這可能是我花最多時間思考的關鍵數據點之一，即車輛來時的轉彎時間。所以我認為我們現在所處的定價環境非常好，非常穩健。我認為這表明了對我們產品的需求。因此，我們必須繼續監控並繼續關注它，因為我們擁有的現金流和經營業務的現金流對於幫助我們為電動汽車轉型提供資金至關重要。

Okay. And just switching gears, these binding agreements on battery feedstocks, can you just give us a little bit of color on since they are binding, you've made commitments here. Have you been able to maybe insulate yourselves a bit going forward from some of the pricing volatility on these feedstocks? And just any color on just as you struck these deals, what that tells you about prospects for EV profitability.

好的。只是切換齒輪，這些關於電池原料的具有約束力的協議，你能不能給我們一點顏色，因為它們具有約束力，你已經在這裡做出了承諾。您是否能夠使自己免受這些原料的一些價格波動的影響？就像你達成這些交易一樣，任何顏色都可以告訴你電動汽車盈利的前景。

Yes. So Rod, I would say 2 things to that. Number one, we've talked about taking a portfolio approach to these commodities, meaning that we'll take some index pricing, we'll take some fixed pricing, we'll take some discounted pricing. We're willing to invest and prepay and just be very flexible as it relates to the suppliers.

是的。所以羅德，我想說兩件事。首先，我們已經討論過對這些商品採取投資組合的方法，這意味著我們將採用一些指數定價，我們將採用一些固定定價，我們將採用一些折扣定價。我們願意投資和預付款，並且在與供應商相關時非常靈活。

And two, I would say we're focused on long-term partnerships. These aren't just contracts that we're looking to say, give me this volume of material. It's about helping our suppliers, those producers expand their operations and doing it in a way that is focused on creating efficiencies within the entire supply chain. So these agreements today represent, I think, what is the best of the best out there in terms of creating these partnerships for the mutual interest of our suppliers and ourselves.

第二，我想說我們專注於長期合作夥伴關係。這些不僅僅是我們想要說的合同，給我這麼多的材料。這是關於幫助我們的供應商，這些生產商擴大他們的業務，並以專注於在整個供應鏈中創造效率的方式進行。因此，我認為，今天的這些協議代表了在為我們的供應商和我們自己的共同利益建立這些夥伴關係方面，什麼是最好的。

The next question will come from Joe Spak of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的喬斯帕克。

Paul, just on the -- thanks for the color on how you expect those 90,000-plus units to come back. But I am wondering, especially given some of the comments on semiconductors, like does that -- like you can make those up, but does it at all impact your ability to wholesale what you thought prior, like before you had this issue? Because if you still have some semiconductor availability issues, like I'm just wondering if that at all impacts where you think you fall in that 25% to 30% range for the year.

保羅，就在 - 感謝您對這 90,000 多個單位如何回歸的顏色。但我想知道，特別是考慮到一些關於半導體的評論，就像你可以彌補這些一樣，但這是否會影響你批發你之前想法的能力，就像在你遇到這個問題之前一樣？因為如果你仍然有一些半導體可用性問題，就像我只是想知道這是否會影響你認為你在今年的 25% 到 30% 範圍內的位置。

Yes. So Joe, I would say that based on what we can see and as we've talked about before, we get together weekly with the supply chain team to talk about this. And what we see out on the horizon gives us comfort in hitting that 25% to 30% goal.

是的。所以喬，我想說的是，根據我們所看到的，正如我們之前談到的，我們每週與供應鏈團隊聚在一起討論這個問題。我們在地平線上看到的東西讓我們在實現 25% 到 30% 的目標時感到欣慰。

And while the year-over-year increases have been lower than that in the first half, remember how challenged we were in the third quarter of last year with Malaysia. That seemed to impact us somewhat uniquely. So that's where we get a lot of confidence.

雖然同比增幅低於上半年，但請記住去年第三季度我們在馬來西亞面臨的挑戰。這似乎對我們產生了某種獨特的影響。所以這就是我們獲得很大信心的地方。

And we're already essentially 1 month through the quarter, and that's given us more confidence in terms of hitting those numbers and what the team has been able to do, both with production as well as completing those vehicles. So no concern yet.

我們已經過了本季度的 1 個月，這讓我們對達到這些數字以及團隊在生產和完成這些車輛方面能夠做到的事情更有信心。所以暫時不用擔心。

But as this quarter indicated, things sometimes happen, but that's what we've got to do to be able to manage tactically. It was unfortunate that it happened at the end of the quarter because it crosses that quarter end. But the result is we'll have that mitigated within that sort of 4- to 6-month time horizon, and we feel good about that based on our forward projections.

但正如本季度所表明的那樣，有時會發生一些事情，但這是我們必須做的才能在戰術上進行管理。不幸的是，它發生在季度末，因為它跨越了季度末。但結果是我們將在 4 到 6 個月的時間範圍內緩解這種情況，根據我們的前瞻性預測，我們對此感覺良好。

Okay. And then switching gears to the EV side, I'm glad to see the Ultium Cells are starting production this coming month. Can you give us an idea of how that ramps? Because you stuck to your 400,000 EVs over the next 2 years. It looks like maybe you'll do 50,000 or so this year. So a significant ramp next year. And I'm curious, like of that, let's call it, 350,000 or so, how much do you think will be supplied by that joint venture versus third parties?

好的。然後切換到 EV 方面，我很高興看到 Ultium 電池在下個月開始生產。你能告訴我們這是如何坡道的嗎？因為您在接下來的 2 年內堅持使用 400,000 輛電動汽車。看起來你今年可能會做 50,000 左右。所以明年會有一個顯著的增長。我很好奇，像這樣，讓我們稱之為，350,000左右，你認為該合資企業與第三方相比將提供多少？

Well, as I said in my remarks, we need the cells coming from the Ohio joint venture plant to really ramp the existing products we have, both the LYRIQ and the HUMMER. And we're weeks away from that plant starting up. It will grow.

好吧，正如我在講話中所說，我們需要來自俄亥俄州合資工廠的電池來真正提升我們現有的產品，包括 LYRIQ 和悍馬。我們距離該工廠啟動還有幾週的時間。它會成長。

So clearly, the bulk of the volume start to add in Q4 and then much more rapid increase because of that plant through next year. So -- and we'll be at full capacity. So you can almost do the math and look at it with the guidance we gave of 20% by quarter between now and then. And so the plan is very significant in helping us achieve the plan that we have to get to 400,000.

很明顯，大部分銷量在第四季度開始增加，然後由於該工廠到明年的增長速度更快。所以——我們將滿負荷運轉。因此，您幾乎可以進行數學計算，並根據我們從現在到那時按季度給出的 20% 的指導來查看它。因此，該計劃對於幫助我們實現必須達到 400,000 的計劃非常重要。

And Joe, that ramp too is, I think, pretty consistent if you just look linearly to 2025, getting to 1 million from where we are right now. So I think this shows how far ahead of this we are because cell plant 2 is coming on in '23, cell plant 3 in '24 and so on. So we really see this as a very thoughtful, methodical approach of ramping up that volume. But I think you pointed out why we're so excited about the trajectory of where we sit right now.

喬，我認為，如果你只是線性地觀察到 2025 年，從我們現在的位置達到 100 萬，那麼這個斜坡也是相當一致的。所以我認為這表明我們領先了多少，因為細胞工廠 2 將在 23 年投入使用，細胞工廠 3 將在 24 年投入使用，依此類推。所以我們真的認為這是一種非常周到、有條不紊的方法來增加音量。但我想你指出了為什麼我們對我們現在所處的軌跡如此興奮。

The next question will come from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

I wanted to follow up on Rod's question about the inflationary cost environment on metals and your long-term profitability assumptions of your EV business. Given how much the market has changed upstream and in battery materials specifically, notwithstanding your efforts to mitigate and control your destiny, how has that changed your long-term view of profitability or returns on the EV business?

我想跟進 Rod 關於金屬通脹成本環境以及您對電動汽車業務的長期盈利能力假設的問題。考慮到市場在上游和電池材料方面發生了多大變化，儘管您努力減輕和控制自己的命運，但這如何改變了您對電動汽車業務盈利能力或回報的長期看法？

So Adam, overall, we're still targeting the 10% margins as we go through this decade. Of course, when you see some of the increases right now, they're going to have an impact broadly not only the EV materials but across all commodities.

所以亞當，總的來說，在這十年中，我們仍然以 10% 的利潤率為目標。當然，當你現在看到一些增長時，它們不僅會對電動汽車材料產生廣泛影響，還會對所有商品產生廣泛影響。

But no one knows exactly where they'll be in 2, 4, 6 years as we go through this. What we're doing is we're continuing to drive efficiencies. That's what engineers do. We solve problems. We take cost out. We find technology solutions.

但沒有人確切知道他們在 2、4、6 年後會在哪裡。我們正在做的是繼續提高效率。這就是工程師所做的。我們解決問題。我們扣除成本。我們尋找技術解決方案。

We're working with not only internally but with LG, but with several other EV people involved in the battery chemistry and different parts of it to take cost out. That's why we have the Wallace R&D center for manufacturing starting up this fall.

我們不僅與內部合作，還與 LG 合作，還與其他幾位參與電池化學及其不同部分的 EV 人員合作，以降低成本。這就是為什麼我們在今年秋天啟動了用於製造的華萊士研發中心。

If we look at a lot of promising battery technologies, where people struggle is to scale at automotive grade and have the manufacturing consistency. We know how to do that, and that's why we'll have R&D operations working with many of these companies to do that.

如果我們看看許多有前途的電池技術，人們努力的地方在於擴大汽車級規模並保持製造一致性。我們知道如何做到這一點，這就是為什麼我們將與這些公司中的許多公司進行研發合作來做到這一點。

So I'm confident as we continue to progress, we're going to find ways to take cost out and drive efficiencies, that we're going to achieve the goals that we had from a margin perspective.

所以我有信心，隨著我們繼續進步，我們將找到降低成本並提高效率的方法，我們將從利潤的角度實現我們的目標。

Can I just follow up on GM Financial? Obviously, gives you really unique insight into the health of the consumer. And given the deteriorating environment facing the consumer, and you see Walmart's warning overnight, what changes are you making in either the originations or provisioning or other aspects of GM Financial to help protect the business in a deteriorating environment?

我可以跟進 GM Financial 嗎？顯然，讓您真正了解消費者的健康狀況。鑑於消費者面臨的環境惡化，你看到沃爾瑪在一夜之間發出警告，你正在對通用金融的起源或供應或其他方面做出哪些改變，以幫助在惡化的環境中保護業務？

Yes. Adam, this is Dan Berce. I'll take that. So really, on a regular basis, we take a granular approach to analyzing our portfolio by product, term, credit tier, structure, structure meaning payment to income LTV and many other views. And based on these views, we make decisions constantly whether to tighten or ease credit.

是的。亞當，這是丹·伯斯。我會接受的。因此，實際上，我們會定期採取細粒度的方法，按產品、期限、信用等級、結構、結構（即支付收入 LTV 和許多其他觀點）分析我們的投資組合。基於這些觀點，我們不斷地決定是收緊還是放寬信貸。

What we're seeing now in our GM new car portfolio, we're seeing extremely strong performance regardless of credit tier. On the used side, there's probably places that -- segments that we're a bit more concerned about and that we would look to tighten. But the new car portfolio is the vast majority of our portfolio, and it's performing very, very well. So really no view to tighten there at this point.

我們現在在通用汽車的新車組合中看到的是，無論信用等級如何，我們都看到了極其強勁的表現。在使用的方面，可能有一些地方 - 我們更關心並且我們希望收緊的部分。但新車組合是我們產品組合的絕大部分，而且表現非常非常好。所以在這一點上真的沒有收緊的觀點。

As far as reserve levels, we've been expecting credit normalization all along. And so normalization is built into our reserves and provisioning already. In this quarter, in particular, we -- our economic overlay that we have to apply under the CECL methodology, we've taken a view to a weaker economic environment going forward. So that economic overlay would serve to increase our reserves that we took this quarter.

就儲備水平而言，我們一直期待信貸正常化。因此，我們的儲備和供應已經建立了正常化。特別是在本季度，我們 - 我們必鬚根據 CECL 方法應用的經濟覆蓋，我們已經看到未來經濟環境疲軟。因此，經濟覆蓋將有助於增加我們本季度的儲備。

The next question will come from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I see you're continuing to guide to a full year EBIT of $13 billion to $15 billion, which is far above consensus for less than $12 billion. If I had to guess, probably the difference relates to skepticism regarding the sustainability of record pricing as the economy softens and maybe likely the sequential deliveries ramp from the first half to the second, given continued issues with chip availability.

我看到你繼續指導全年息稅前利潤為 130 億美元至 150 億美元，這遠高於低於 120 億美元的共識。如果我不得不猜測，差異可能與隨著經濟疲軟而對創紀錄定價的可持續性持懷疑態度，並且考慮到芯片可用性的持續問題，可能從上半年到下半年的連續交付量增加。

Are you able to update on what the very latest might be in terms of pricing? Maybe what gives you the confidence that pricing will hold in as inventory normalizes? Are there any examples in your portfolio you could point to or maybe inventory for select vehicles has improved yet the pricing did hold in?

您是否能夠更新最新的定價？也許是什麼讓您有信心在庫存正常化時定價將保持不變？您的投資組合中是否有您可以指出的示例，或者某些車輛的庫存有所改善但價格確實保持不變？

And with regard to the chip availability to support the 25% to 30% growth in wholesales for the full year, what visibility do you have to being able to secure those chips? Could maybe a cooling of economic conditions ironically help chip availability by reducing demand elsewhere in the industry or even maybe outside the auto industry? How are you thinking about pricing and chips tracking in the back half of the year in order to make that above-consensus guidance?

關於支持全年批發量增長 25% 到 30% 的芯片可用性，您對確保這些芯片的可見性有多大？具有諷刺意味的是，經濟狀況的降溫是否可以通過減少行業其他地方甚至汽車行業之外的需求來幫助芯片可用性？您如何考慮下半年的定價和籌碼跟踪以做出高於共識的指導？

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. So I would say that at the end of the day, all the data that we've seen to date on vehicle pricing and demand remains strong. I think I alluded to turn times earlier, what we see with Dan's data from GM Financial but also importantly, the fact that while we've increased production to date, inventories on the ground at dealers hasn't changed in really about 6 quarters even as production has gone up.

是的。謝謝，瑞恩。所以我想說，在一天結束的時候，我們迄今為止看到的所有關於汽車定價和需求的數據仍然很強勁。我想我早先提到了扭轉時間，我們從通用金融公司 Dan 的數據中看到的，但更重要的是，儘管迄今為止我們已經增加了產量，但經銷商的實際庫存在大約 6 個季度內並沒有發生變化隨著產量的增加。

So we still think that there's a big pocket of demand that hasn't been met yet. And we continue to meet that. We'll respond, but we -- if we need to, but we feel good about where that sits, which is why we had the confidence to build those vehicles without fully completing them and be able to work through those.

所以我們仍然認為還有很大一部分需求尚未得到滿足。我們將繼續滿足這一點。我們會做出回應，但我們 - 如果需要，但我們對它的位置感覺很好，這就是為什麼我們有信心在沒有完全完成它們的情況下製造這些車輛並能夠完成這些工作。

As it relates to the chips, again, we had a level of confidence about the chip supply as we gave our guidance for 2022. It didn't mean that it was over. In fact, we highlighted that we'd still see some challenges, and we have seen challenges but largely been in line with our expectations for the year.

由於它與芯片有關，我們再次對芯片供應有一定的信心，因為我們給出了 2022 年的指導。這並不意味著它已經結束。事實上，我們強調我們仍然會看到一些挑戰，我們已經看到了挑戰，但在很大程度上符合我們對這一年的預期。

So there hasn't been anything in the first 6 months or even the last couple of months that has deteriorated our confidence in being able to hit that full year goal. And in some cases, pricing has been more resilient for longer than we expected going into the year. So that's kind of what's giving us the confidence around that $13 billion to $15 billion guide, and we continue to remain focused on it.

因此，在前 6 個月甚至最後幾個月，沒有任何事情削弱了我們實現全年目標的信心。在某些情況下，定價比我們預期的更長時間更具彈性。這就是讓我們對 130 億至 150 億美元指南充滿信心的原因，我們將繼續專注於它。

Okay. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the trajectory for Cruise EBIT. The losses seem to pick up there a little bit as you commence more commercial operations. Maybe you have more people on the ground. What's the way to think about that? That the losses do pick up as you launch operations? Or maybe as you launch operations, begin to generate some revenue, you can amortize some of the more fixed costs? How should we think about EBIT there tracking over the next year or so?

好的。也許只是對 Cruise EBIT 軌蹟的快速跟進。隨著您開始更多的商業運營，損失似乎有所增加。也許你有更多的人在地面上。怎麼想？當您開始運營時，損失會增加嗎？或者也許當你開始運營，開始產生一些收入時，你可以攤銷一些比較固定的成本？我們應該如何看待未來一年左右的 EBIT 跟踪？

I'll let Kyle comment, but I would say, first off, we are very confident and excited about Cruise's opportunity to scale. With what they're demonstrating in 30% of the San Francisco area, having the ability to charge for rides and with the plans that we have for this year and next, we're going to make sure that we have all of the resources available to scale that business quickly because we do think there's a first-mover advantage.

我會讓凱爾發表評論，但我想說，首先，我們對克魯斯擴大規模的機會充滿信心和興奮。憑藉他們在舊金山 30% 地區的展示、有能力為遊樂設施收費以及我們今年和明年的計劃，我們將確保我們擁有所有可用的資源快速擴展該業務，因為我們確實認為有先發優勢。

And so one of the strengths and the work that Cruise and GM do together is make sure that we have a plan and we have the funding available to support a rapid growth strategy. I don't know, Paul, if you have any specifics on the amortization of the investment.

因此，克魯斯和通用汽車共同完成的一項優勢和工作就是確保我們有一個計劃，我們有足夠的資金來支持快速增長戰略。保羅，我不知道你是否有任何關於投資攤銷的細節。

Yes. So I think at the end of the day, it's continuing to perform at or faster than we expected going forward. The increase in cost is both headcount, but it's also a change in the compensation expense, given what we've seen with the liquidity option that we've provided. That's all built into our cash expectations for the year. So there haven't really been any surprises for Cruise going forward.

是的。所以我認為在一天結束時，它繼續以或快於我們預期的速度運行。成本的增加既是員工人數的增加，也是補償費用的變化，因為我們已經看到了我們提供的流動性選項。這一切都包含在我們今年的現金預期中。所以克魯斯的未來並沒有什麼驚喜。

And I don't know, Kyle, if you have anything that you want to add just overall related to Cruise.

我不知道，凱爾，如果你有什麼想要補充的，只是與克魯斯有關。

Yes, sure. Thanks, Mary. When you've got the opportunity to go after a $1 trillion market where you can have a highly differentiated technology and product, you don't casually weigh into that. You attack it aggressively. And given our strong cash position in Cruise, we're able to do this. And aggressively pursuing the market, I think, is a competitive advantage. And given our position right now, I think the results speak for themselves.

是的，當然。謝謝，瑪麗。當您有機會進入一個價值 1 萬億美元的市場時，您可以在其中擁有高度差異化的技術和產品，您不會隨便考慮這一點。你積極地攻擊它。鑑於我們在 Cruise 的強勁現金狀況，我們能夠做到這一點。我認為，積極開拓市場是一種競爭優勢。鑑於我們現在的立場，我認為結果不言自明。

But what you're seeing right now is the early commercialization. We just have that first initial revenue coming in. Our first driverless ride was just November last year. And since then, we're doing over 0.25 million -- we've done over 0.25 million driverless rides, thousands of customer ads and covering 70% of one of the top rideshare markets in the world.

但是你現在看到的是早期的商業化。我們剛剛獲得了第一筆初始收入。我們的第一次無人駕駛是在去年 11 月。從那時起，我們已經完成了超過 25 萬次——我們已經完成了超過 25 萬次無人駕駛乘車、數千個客戶廣告，並覆蓋了世界上最大的拼車市場之一的 70%。

So we're scaling that up very rapidly. It's exponential. I think it's going to catch people by surprise. But certainly, at our initial scale, we -- there's quite a bit of cash spending, but that's in preparation for the ramp that we expect to do over the next year or so.

所以我們正在迅速擴大規模。這是指數級的。我想這會讓人們大吃一驚。但可以肯定的是，在我們最初的規模上，我們 - 有相當多的現金支出，但這是為我們預計在明年左右進行的增長做準備。

The next question will come from Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將來自高盛的馬克德萊尼。

First one is on China. Maybe you can talk both in terms of your ability to operate as the Shanghai region has reopened, and there's still constraints on your ability to operate in China, but also what you're seeing in terms of demand in the China region. I think there's been some stimulus that perhaps helped demand recover. Do you think that's sustainable in the China region?

第一個是關於中國的。也許您可以談談您在上海地區重新開放時的運營能力，以及您在中國運營的能力仍然受到限制，以及您在中國地區的需求方面所看到的情況。我認為有一些刺激措施可能有助於需求復蘇。您認為這在中國地區是否可持續？

So clearly, during the shutdown phase and specifically with a lot of our operations in Shanghai, we saw a drop in the Q2 time frame. When some of those restrictions started to open, we already saw improvements in the June time frame.

很明顯，在關閉階段，特別是我們在上海的許多業務，我們看到第二季度的時間框架有所下降。當其中一些限制開始開放時，我們已經看到 6 月份的時間框架有所改善。

And we're very optimistic that we can regain share and also be a very significant player from an EV perspective. We have the LYRIQ launch that's coming very shortly. And we have our plans there to convert more than 50% of our manufacturing footprint in China to EV production by 2030.

我們非常樂觀地認為我們可以重新獲得份額，並且從電動汽車的角度來看，我們也將成為一個非常重要的參與者。我們即將推出 LYRIQ。我們計劃到 2030 年將我們在中國 50% 以上的製造業務轉變為電動汽車生產。

We also have the strong performance and the sales leadership that we have with SGMW with the Hong Guang Mini. So we're expecting a recovery. It might be slowed as China ramps. We're encouraged by some of the stimulus that the government has put in. But we do feel with our lineup coming in China, we'll have a strong recovery.

我們還擁有上汽通用五菱和宏光 Mini 的強勁表現和銷售領導力。所以我們期待復甦。隨著中國的崛起，它可能會放緩。我們對政府實施的一些刺激措施感到鼓舞。但我們確實覺得隨著我們的陣容進入中國，我們將會有一個強勁的複蘇。

That's helpful. My second question was a follow-up on the battery raw materials agreement. And now that you have some added visibility on the raw materials front into your battery cost structure, can you talk about whether or not you still think GM is tracking at the battery pack level for cost to be under $100 per kilowatt hour mid-decade?

這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於電池原材料協議的跟進。既然您對電池成本結構的原材料方面有了更多的了解，您能否談談您是否仍然認為通用汽車在十年中期跟踪電池組的成本低於每千瓦時 100 美元？

So that's what we're continuing to work to make sure that we hit those and go well below $100 because we need to do that from an affordability perspective. And again, as I mentioned before, it will be by manufacturing efficiencies, by scaling the operations. We have an advantage with the LTM platform because we can scale.

所以這就是我們繼續努力確保我們達到這些目標並遠低於 100 美元，因為我們需要從負擔能力的角度來做到這一點。同樣，正如我之前提到的，這將是通過提高製造效率，通過擴大運營規模來實現的。我們擁有 LTM 平台的優勢，因為我們可以擴展。

We don't have a lot of unique configuration that's going to help us take cost out as well overall. So we're looking at the total cost of the vehicle. I mean, in some of the cases, the raw material prices will be what they are, but we think we'll have a differential advantage to our competitors because of the strategy that we're executing.

我們沒有很多獨特的配置可以幫助我們降低整體成本。因此，我們正在研究車輛的總成本。我的意思是，在某些情況下，原材料價格將保持不變，但我們認為，由於我們正在執行的戰略，我們將對競爭對手具有差異化優勢。

We'll move on to the next question, Emmanuel Rosner with Deutsche Bank.

我們將繼續討論下一個問題，德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

One of the hardest things for us and I think investors to assess is what is the pricing downside risk, vehicle pricing risk as we move into potential downturn or recession. So I was very encouraged to see you've been sort of like refreshing some of these downturn scenarios.

對我們來說，我認為投資者最難評估的事情之一是定價下行風險，當我們進入潛在的低迷或衰退時，汽車定價風險是什麼。所以我很高興看到你有點像刷新這些低迷情景。

And I was wondering if you'd be willing to share some of your framework there. I think a few years ago, you used to host these GM Office Hours, where I think you had a historical framework around potential pricing pressure. Just curious if you could help us with how to think about it.

我想知道你是否願意在那里分享你的一些框架。我想幾年前，你曾經主持過這些通用汽車的辦公時間，我認為你有一個圍繞潛在定價壓力的歷史框架。只是好奇你能否幫助我們思考一下。

I think 2 things to that. Number one, we're going through our long-term planning process with the Board. And we'll have more to share in the fall just generally about the multiyear forecast and kind of how we're trending towards Investor Day goals, et cetera.

我認為有兩件事。第一，我們正在與董事會進行長期規劃流程。我們將在秋季分享更多關於多年預測以及我們如何朝著投資者日目標發展的趨勢等等。

Second, I think that there's a level of sort of normalization, and there's a level of recession across the board. So as Mary articulates, looking at moderate and severe is kind of what dictates that.

其次，我認為存在一定程度的正常化，並且存在一定程度的全面衰退。所以正如瑪麗所說，看中度和重度是什麼決定了這一點。

So I think when we look at pricing, certainly in a down demand world, we would expect to see potentially some significant moves in pricing. But I think as we model out the recession, then we've got to figure out what happens to commodities, what happens to logistics, et cetera, where we would expect a lot of the air to come out of that balloon. So I think we've got a decent sort of natural hedge to some of that in the event of a downturn. But no comments on any specific pricing variables that we're putting into it.

因此，我認為，當我們考慮定價時，當然是在需求下降的世界中，我們預計會看到定價方面的一些重大變化。但我認為，當我們模擬經濟衰退時，我們必須弄清楚商品會發生什麼，物流會發生什麼等等，我們預計會從氣球中排出大量空氣。所以我認為，在經濟低迷的情況下，我們有一種不錯的自然對沖措施。但沒有對我們投入其中的任何特定定價變量發表評論。

Okay. And then, I guess, one of the potentially growing -- as I'm thinking about the puts and takes for the next sort of like 18 months or so, I think one that could become more important is the near-term profitability of some of the electric vehicles. Obviously, with the goal to produce 400,000 units between this year and next, this is going to be a meaningful volume contributor next year.

好的。然後，我想，其中一個潛在增長——當我考慮下一個大約 18 個月左右的看跌期權時，我認為可能變得更重要的是一些人的近期盈利能力的電動汽車。顯然，以今年和明年之間生產 400,000 台的目標為目標，這將成為明年有意義的產量貢獻者。

So I know forecasting mid and long term is probably going to be pretty difficult, but as we think about it maybe going to next year with this volume ramping up, how should we think about it as a factor? What sort of contribution margin are you expecting in the near term?

所以我知道預測中長期可能會非常困難，但是當我們認為它可能會在明年隨著數量的增加而增加時，我們應該如何看待它作為一個因素？您期望在短期內獲得什麼樣的邊際貢獻？

So as we've talked about before, Emmanuel, I think our goal here is to get EVs to ICE parity by mid- to late part of the decade going forward. So I think we haven't talked specifically about vehicle profitability, and we don't.

因此，正如我們之前談到的，Emmanuel，我認為我們的目標是在未來十年的中後期讓電動汽車達到 ICE 平價。所以我認為我們還沒有專門討論汽車的盈利能力，我們也沒有。

But I think, generally, with EVs, I think you're going to see some rapid improvement in profitability on every model as we scale it up. And as we get the Ultium battery plants flowing and increase capacity, that's a key driver of our strategy going forward.

但我認為，一般來說，對於電動汽車，隨著我們擴大規模，你會看到每種車型的盈利能力都會迅速提高。隨著我們讓 Ultium 電池工廠運轉並增加產能，這是我們未來戰略的關鍵驅動力。

So in the short run, there's some pressure, but I'm not sure that it's all that meaningful against where we are. As we get to getting to the 1 million vehicles and beyond, we should expect some pretty steady year-over-year improvements as we ramp up EV production.

所以在短期內，會有一些壓力，但我不確定這對我們所處的位置是否有意義。隨著我們達到 100 萬輛及以上，隨著我們提高電動汽車產量，我們應該期待一些相當穩定的同比改進。

The next question comes from Chris McNally of Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

Just a follow-up to Ryan's question on Cruise. I guess is it fair to say you just maybe don't want to comment on the shape of the EBIT burn rate specifically for '23 right now or you're holding off until the September event? The reason I ask is I think investors are just going to assume in the absence that the losses may accelerate materially next year as San Francisco ramps, more cars, more rides but also new cities are launched. So even if not quantified, are we thinking about the shape of that EBIT burn going up next year correctly?

只是瑞安關於克魯斯的問題的後續行動。我想可以公平地說，您現在可能不想評論專門針對 23 年的 EBIT 消耗率的形狀，或者您要等到 9 月的活動？我問的原因是，我認為投資者只會假設，隨著舊金山坡道、更多汽車、更多遊樂設施以及新城市的推出，明年損失可能會大幅加速。因此，即使沒有量化，我們是否正確地考慮了明年 EBIT 燃燒的形狀？

First, I think, Chris, Kyle and I are going to be speaking in September at the conference there, the Goldman Sachs conference there. And then we'll be providing more input from a forecast for 2023 when we give guidance.

首先，我認為 Chris、Kyle 和我將在 9 月份的會議上發言，那裡的高盛會議。然後，當我們提供指導時，我們將根據 2023 年的預測提供更多信息。

So I would say we are going to make sure we fund Cruise and the spending is done in such a way that we can gain share and have a leadership position as well as we have plans that we're taking cost out as well as we -- as the technology matures. Obviously, the Origin will be an important part of that as well. So what I'd ask is you stay tuned until we talk in September, and then we'll give further guidance as we give overall guidance for 2023.

所以我想說，我們將確保為 Cruise 提供資金，並且支出的完成方式使我們能夠獲得份額並擁有領導地位，並且我們有計劃削減成本以及我們 - - 隨著技術的成熟。顯然，起源也將是其中的重要組成部分。所以我要問的是，在我們 9 月談話之前，請繼續關注，然後我們將在給出 2023 年的總體指導時提供進一步的指導。

Okay. Great. That's very helpful, Mary. And then just maybe you could remind us, Kyle, just the comments that you guys have made publicly about what cities may be next. I know Arizona, there's a lot of testing. There's Dubai referenced in the media. And then anything around the timing of -- or what a 100% launch may look like in early 2023? Will there be a ride-hailing app open to the public in 2023? Again, anything that you can comment on.

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助，瑪麗。然後也許你可以提醒我們，凱爾，你們公開發表的關於下一個城市的評論。我知道亞利桑那州，有很多測試。媒體提到了迪拜。然後是關於時間的任何事情——或者 2023 年初 100% 的發布可能是什麼樣子？ 2023 年是否會有向公眾開放的叫車應用程序？同樣，您可以評論的任何內容。

Yes. So we haven't announced our next cities yet for obvious reasons, but mainly that we don't want to give everyone a heads up where we're going and when. But that we have very aggressive scaling plans for future years. We've done substantial work to derisk the technical approach to taking what works well in San Francisco and deployed in other similar and attractive rideshare markets.

是的。因此，出於顯而易見的原因，我們還沒有宣布我們的下一個城市，但主要是我們不想讓每個人都知道我們要去哪里以及什麼時候去。但是我們對未來幾年有非常積極的擴展計劃。我們已經做了大量工作，以取消採用在舊金山行之有效的技術方法，並將其部署到其他類似且有吸引力的拼車市場。

And then on the rideshare app, we do have an app now that is open to the public. Thousands of members of the public have used it in San Francisco, and we're able to charge fares for the majority of those rides.

然後在拼車應用程序上，我們現在確實有一個向公眾開放的應用程序。成千上萬的公眾在舊金山使用了它，我們能夠為其中大部分遊樂設施收取票價。

So that's -- it's early stages. That's pretty fresh off the press just in the last couple of months. But that was a big step for us going from essentially a pre-revenue company to the beginning of -- our first revenue coming in and the beginning of that rapid scaling trajectory.

這就是 - 這是早期階段。在過去的幾個月裡，這在媒體上還很新鮮。但這對我們來說是一大步，從本質上是一家收入前的公司到開始——我們的第一筆收入和快速擴張軌蹟的開始。

The next question will come from James Picariello of BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題將來自 BNP Paribas Exane 的 James Picariello。

Just on commodities and freight. So I mean, at current spot rates today and the timing of your contracts, is there any way to be thinking about, based on the lag in your P&L flow-through, what next year could look like, again, using the hypothetical exercise of current spot rates as the baseline?

就商品和運費而言。所以我的意思是，以今天的即期匯率和你的合同時間，有沒有什麼辦法可以考慮，根據你的損益流動的滯後，明年會是什麼樣子，再次使用假設的練習以當前即期匯率為基準？

Yes. I would say, James, it's premature to be giving any 2023 guidance from that standpoint. Certainly, it would be better as evidenced by the fact that you look in 2021, we had a lag benefit as commodity prices were going up.

是的。我想說，詹姆斯，從這個角度給出任何 2023 年的指導還為時過早。當然，這會更好，正如您在 2021 年看到的那樣，隨著商品價格的上漲，我們獲得了滯後收益。

So we have about 1/3 of our commodities that are kind of on index pricing and about 2/3 that are on sort of multiyear agreements going forward. So I would say stay tuned for that. The commodities environment is obviously going to change quite a bit from here to there. But there are some savings there certainly as it sits right now.

所以我們有大約 1/3 的商品是基於指數定價的，大約 2/3 是基於未來多年協議的。所以我會說請繼續關注。從這裡到那裡，大宗商品環境顯然會發生相當大的變化。但是現在肯定有一些節省。

Savings for next year. Okay.

明年的儲蓄。好的。

Yes.

是的。

And then any color on the timing of the announced fourth battery plant? I thought the company was hoping to make an announcement sometime in the first half. So just curious what the (inaudible) there. And then can you provide any details on the timing and the terms of the $2.5 billion U.S. government loan announced today through the ATVM program?

那麼宣布的第四家電池廠的時間安排有什麼顏色嗎？我以為公司希望在上半年的某個時候發佈公告。所以只是好奇那裡（聽不清）是什麼。然後您能否提供有關今天通過 ATVM 計劃宣布的 25 億美元美國政府貸款的時間和條款的任何細節？

So the announcement for the fourth battery plant will be in the not-too-distant future. It will definitely be this year. So just stay tuned on that. Obviously, there's a lot -- the team has done a tremendous amount of work. So we're approaching announcement there. And then I'll let you talk about the terms.

因此，第四家電池廠的宣布將在不遠的將來。今年肯定會。所以請繼續關注。顯然，有很多——團隊已經完成了大量的工作。所以我們正在接近那裡的公告。然後我會讓你談談條款。

Yes. So on the Department of Energy loan, we obviously still need to close that loan. So as we close it, we'll have more details on it. But it is a loan to Ultium Cells LLC, so it benefits both us and LG Energy Solutions, and it is nonrecourse to GM. Beyond that, we'll disclose more at closing.

是的。所以對於能源部的貸款，我們顯然仍然需要關閉這筆貸款。所以當我們關閉它時，我們會有更多的細節。但這是對 Ultium Cells LLC 的貸款，因此對我們和 LG Energy Solutions 都有利，而且對通用汽車沒有追索權。除此之外，我們將在結束時披露更多信息。

The next question will come from Colin Langan of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

If battery raw material costs don't fall, what are the cost opportunities to offset this pretty big increase? I mean I'm estimating right now that EVs are probably possibly $7,000 more costly than internal combustion engine, which is a pretty large gap.

如果電池原材料成本不下降，那麼抵消這一相當大的增長的成本機會是什麼？我的意思是我現在估計電動汽車可能比內燃機貴 7,000 美元，這是一個相當大的差距。

So how can you fill that gap going forward, particularly as we go into next year with the big ramp? I mean it seems like your margin targets haven't changed really, and the spike seems to be a pretty material headwind.

那麼，您如何才能填補這一空白，尤其是當我們進入明年的大坡道時？我的意思是，您的利潤目標似乎並沒有真正改變，而且飆升似乎是一個相當大的逆風。

Well, I think as we ramp up, scale is going to be a very important piece of it. I would also say the team continues to find opportunities to take cost out of battery cell manufacturing, finding manufacturing efficiencies. We have found opportunities in purchasing.

好吧，我認為隨著我們的發展，規模將成為其中非常重要的一部分。我還要說，該團隊繼續尋找機會從電池製造中降低成本，尋找製造效率。我們發現了採購機會。

We can -- and over the, I'll say, the mid- to a little bit longer term, we'll continue to look at what chemistries we can use that improve costs, also chemistries that use less of the more expensive materials. So Colin, really, we look at every single element to take cost out.

我們可以 - 我會說，在中長期，我們將繼續研究我們可以使用哪些化學物質來提高成本，以及使用更少更昂貴材料的化學物質。所以科林，真的，我們會查看每一個元素以降低成本。

Our #1 goal right now is to get these battery plants up and get it launched because there is such strong demand for the products that we have, whether it's the HUMMER or the LYRIQ, and continuing -- we're seeing really good interest in the Bolt from a customer perspective. But as we get into next year with the Silverado EV, the Blazer EV, the Equinox EV and yet this year later, the SUV of the HUMMER, we're busy getting everything ramped up. And then if one thing General Motors' engineering team and manufacturing team knows how to do, it's take cost out, and we'll do it.

我們現在的第一目標是讓這些電池廠啟動並啟動，因為對我們擁有的產品的需求如此強勁，無論是悍馬還是 LYRIQ，並且繼續 - 我們看到對從客戶的角度來看 Bolt。但是當我們進入明年的 Silverado EV、Blazer EV、Equinox EV 以及今年之後的 HUMMER SUV 時，我們正忙著讓一切加速。然後，如果通用汽車的工程團隊和製造團隊知道如何做一件事，那就是降低成本，我們會去做。

Okay. You talked about pricing is stable. Can you comment a bit on lead times or in this unusual environment where you kind of have a lot of preorders? Some of the dealers have indicated that the lead times have shrunk. Is that true? Is that what you're seeing, that the lead times have kind of started to normalize?

好的。你談到定價是穩定的。您能否對交貨時間或在這種您有很多預購訂單的不尋常環境發表評論？一些經銷商表示交貨時間已經縮短。真的嗎？這就是你所看到的，交貨時間已經開始正常化了嗎？

No. I mean there could be -- for specific products, we might be seeing that. But frankly, for our most in-demand products, when you look at full-size trucks and SUVs, there's -- we still really aren't seeing a change in the lead time to get these products out.

不，我的意思是，對於特定產品，我們可能會看到。但坦率地說，對於我們最受歡迎的產品，當您查看全尺寸卡車和 SUV 時，我們仍然沒有看到將這些產品推出的交貨時間發生變化。

Our last question comes from Jairam Nathan of Daiwa.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Daiwa 的 Jairam Nathan。

So I just had a question on inventory. You talked about pretty -- like 90% to 100% increase in the third quarter and 20% to 30% in the fourth. How should we look at the mix of production? We have seen companies like Walmart kind of building inventory of the wrong things. And especially given gas prices and large SUVs, it seems counterintuitive. So how should we look at the mix in terms of how much the production volume?

所以我只是有一個關於庫存的問題。你談到了漂亮——比如第三季度增長了 90% 到 100%，第四季度增長了 20% 到 30%。我們應該如何看待生產組合？我們已經看到像沃爾瑪這樣的公司在建立錯誤物品的庫存。尤其是考慮到汽油價格和大型 SUV，這似乎違反直覺。那麼，我們應該如何看待產量的多少？

Well, right now, we can't build enough full-size trucks and SUV as we mentioned, mid-teens and even lower from a -- for full-size SUVs. So it's something we watch very, very carefully. And I think the opportunity we have, we still expect very strong demand.

好吧，現在，我們無法製造足夠多的全尺寸卡車和 SUV，正如我們提到的，對於全尺寸 SUV，我們無法製造出十幾歲甚至更低的車型。所以這是我們非常非常仔細地觀察的事情。而且我認為我們擁有的機會，我們仍然期望非常強勁的需求。

A lot of these vehicles, we have customers waiting for them. Believe me, I get e-mails from them waiting for their trucks and SUVs. And so we're confident with the decision we made in June to build-shy these vehicles, that we're going to see strong demand.

很多這樣的車輛，我們有客戶在等他們。相信我，我會收到他們的電子郵件，等待他們的卡車和 SUV。因此，我們對我們在 6 月份做出的製造這些車輛的決定充滿信心，我們將看到強勁的需求。

And then post that, when we do eventually, and we don't know when, start to see demand start to normalize, we still have work to do to build the inventory to the appropriate level. Again, never back to where even close to where we were, but at a level. So with that, we're confident in the vehicles we're building today that we have a strong demand for them.

然後發布，當我們最終這樣做時，我們不知道何時開始看到需求開始正常化，我們仍有工作要做，以將庫存建立到適當的水平。再一次，永遠不要回到甚至接近我們所在的地方，而是在一個水平上。因此，我們對我們今天正在製造的車輛充滿信心，我們對它們有強烈的需求。

Okay. As a follow-up, I just wanted to understand, like how do -- what's the plan to allocate these battery packs? And it looks like for some of your products like BrightDrop, for instance, it looks like there's a lot of demand. And you are -- you have announced quite a bit of EVs coming up. So how do you kind of allocate the battery resources between these vehicles?

好的。作為後續，我只是想了解，例如如何分配這些電池組的計劃是什麼？例如，對於您的一些產品，例如 BrightDrop，看起來需求量很大。你是 - 你已經宣布了相當多的電動汽車即將上市。那麼如何在這些車輛之間分配電池資源呢？

Yes. So we look across all the whole EV portfolio that we have off of Ultium and look where the strongest demand is. And in general, we're going to allocate where we see the strongest demand. The challenge we have right now is our -- that's why we're so excited to get battery plant cell 1 up and next year plant 2 and the following year plant 3 because right now, our demand is outstripping our capacity.

是的。因此，我們查看了我們從 Ultium 獲得的所有 EV 產品組合，並查看需求最強的地方。總的來說，我們將分配我們認為需求最強的地方。我們現在面臨的挑戰是我們的 - 這就是為什麼我們如此興奮地啟動電池工廠 1 電池，明年工廠 2 和次年工廠 3，因為現在，我們的需求超過了我們的產能。

And so we look to kind of make sure we're covering all the key segments and the customers. And a lot of it is just looking at what that demand is and kind of allocating across. So we'll continue to do that, especially where we see the strongest demand for whether it's the fleet vehicles from BrightDrop, knowing the importance of getting affordable EVs out with the Blazer and Equinox, but also the strength that we're going to see -- that we're already seeing in the Silverado EV and the LYRIQ as well. So it's a problem we're working out of, but frankly, it's a better problem to have than others.

因此，我們希望確保我們覆蓋所有關鍵細分市場和客戶。其中很多只是關注需求是什麼以及如何分配。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，尤其是在我們看到對 BrightDrop 車隊車輛的最強烈需求的情況下，我們知道使用 Blazer 和 Equinox 推出負擔得起的電動汽車的重要性，以及我們將看到的實力——我們已經在 Silverado EV 和 LYRIQ 中看到了這一點。所以這是一個我們正在解決的問題，但坦率地說，這是一個比其他問題更好的問題。

Okay. Just to -- like if I kind of put a spectrum, right, like, let's say, Bolt is at the one end and BrightDrop is at the other. One would argue that you should be making all BrightDrops or the Silverados, but would that be the plan? Or would it be more spread out?

好的。只是 - 就像我放一個頻譜一樣，對，比如說，Bolt 位於一端，BrightDrop 位於另一端。有人會爭辯說你應該製作所有 BrightDrops 或 Silverados，但這是計劃嗎？還是會更分散？

It will be more spread out as we look to have the portfolio because remember, having vehicles in the key segments that there's huge demand for, I think, is going to drive EV volume. So again, we'll allocate as we evaluate the market and the ability because we have common cells and the packs that gives us a lot of flexibility to make decisions as we see how the demand unfolds.

當我們希望擁有投資組合時，它將更加分散，因為請記住，在有巨大需求的關鍵領域擁有車輛，我認為，這將推動電動汽車的銷量。再說一次，我們將在評估市場和能力時進行分配，因為我們有通用的電池和電池組，當我們看到需求如何展開時，這給了我們很大的靈活性來做出決定。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mary Barra for her closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉給 Mary Barra，以聽取她的結束意見。

Thank you so much. As Paul and I have discussed today, we believe the team is executing well on both our short-term and our long-term commitments even in this environment that's pretty uncertain. We have a strong foundation in place.

太感謝了。正如保羅和我今天所討論的那樣，即使在這種非常不確定的環境中，我們相信團隊在我們的短期和長期承諾上都表現良好。我們有一個堅實的基礎。

And we believe, as I just said, we're rolling out the right EVs in the right segments. We have strength across Cadillac, strength across Chevy, and you'll see it in GMC and HUMMER as well. And we also -- the feedback that we're getting with the performance, the design, the technology on these vehicles, we couldn't be more pleased with the response that we're seeing from every vehicle that we reveal. So we feel that there's going to be strong customer demand, and that will, again, as we execute our business plan, get us to the margin targets that we've talked about.

正如我剛才所說，我們相信，我們正在正確的細分市場推出正確的電動汽車。我們擁有凱迪拉克的實力，雪佛蘭的實力，您也會在 GMC 和 HUMMER 中看到這一點。而且我們還 - 我們從這些車輛的性能、設計和技術中獲得的反饋，我們對我們從每輛展示的車輛中看到的反應感到非常滿意。因此，我們認為客戶需求將會非常強勁，並且在我們執行業務計劃時，這將再次使我們達到我們討論過的利潤率目標。

I will also say, we are very pleased that we will host another investor event in the fall in New York City and one that includes hands-on experience with our EVs. So you can see these vehicles and the strengths that they bring to the market. We're going to have more details to share soon, but please mark your calendars for November 17. And I look forward to seeing you there if I don't before then. So thanks again for all your questions, and I hope everybody has a good day.

我還要說，我們很高興我們將在秋季在紐約市舉辦另一場投資者活動，其中包括對我們電動汽車的親身體驗。因此，您可以看到這些車輛以及它們為市場帶來的優勢。我們將很快分享更多細節，但請在您的日曆上標記為 11 月 17 日。如果在那之前沒有的話，我期待著在那裡見到您。所以再次感謝您提出的所有問題，我希望每個人都有美好的一天。

That concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。