通用磨坊 (GIS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the General Mills Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal '23 Earnings Q&A Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, June 28, 2023.

您好，歡迎收看通用磨坊 23 年第四季度和全年財報問答網絡廣播。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議將於 2023 年 6 月 28 日星期三進行錄製。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Siemon, vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁傑夫·西蒙 (Jeff Siemon)。請繼續。

Thank you, Malika, and good morning, everyone. Thank you so much for joining us today for our Q&A session on our fourth quarter and full year fiscal '23 results. I hope everyone had time this morning to review our press release, listen to our prepared remarks and view our presentation materials, which were made available on our Investor Relations site.

謝謝你，馬莉卡，大家早上好。非常感謝您今天參加我們關於 23 財年第四季度和全年業績的問答環節。我希望今天早上每個人都有時間閱讀我們的新聞稿，聆聽我們準備好的發言並查看我們的演示材料，這些材料可在我們的投資者關係網站上獲取。

It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information which may be discussed on today's call.

值得注意的是，在我們的問答環節中，我們可能會根據管理層當前的觀點和假設做出前瞻性陳述。請參閱今天上午的新聞稿，了解可能影響前瞻性陳述的因素以及可能在今天的電話會議上討論的非公認會計準則信息的調節。

I'm here with Jeff Harmening, Chairman and CEO; Kofi Bruce, our CFO; and Jon Nudi, Group President for our North America Retail segment. So let's go ahead and get to the first question. Malika, can you please get us started?

我和董事長兼首席執行官傑夫·哈梅寧 (Jeff Harmening) 一起來到這裡。科菲·布魯斯，我們的首席財務官； Jon Nudi，北美零售部門集團總裁。那麼讓我們繼續討論第一個問題。 Malika，你能讓我們開始嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first one question is from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞穗證券的約翰·鮑姆加特納（John Baumgartner）。

Maybe just to start off, just big picture, Jeff. I wanted to come back to this transition you're speaking about in the environment in this new fiscal year. Last year, you made some pretty material investments back into the business. And with those now in the base and conditions getting back to normalizing, how are you sort of adapting and evolving those resource? I know there's a lot there. There's innovation, quality, promo, productivity. But how do we think about the next steps for growth and what a more offensive strategy looks like for mills going forward?

也許只是開始，只是大局，傑夫。我想回到你在新財年的環境中談論的這種轉變。去年，您對業務進行了一些相當實質性的投資。隨著現在基地中的人員和條件恢復正常，您如何適應和發展這些資源？我知道那裡有很多東西。有創新、質量、促銷、生產力。但我們如何思考下一步的增長以及鋼廠未來更具進攻性的戰略是什麼樣的？

Yes, John, thanks for the question. And I'm glad to take a half a step back. I mean, if you look at our last year, I mean, I think it's important to remember that we grew sales at 10%, operating profit at 8%, EPS at 10% while investing in the business, double-digit growth and in marketing a double-digit growth in capabilities. And so the -- as we look ahead, and our guidance also reflects our continued investment in growth.

是的，約翰，謝謝你的提問。我很高興退後半步。我的意思是，如果你看看我們去年的情況，我的意思是，我認為重要的是要記住，我們的銷售額增長了 10%，營業利潤增長了 8%，每股收益增長了 10%，同時投資於業務，兩位數的增長和營銷能力實現兩位數增長。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們的指導也反映了我們對增長的持續投資。

If you look ahead, we're going to be on track on all of our metrics on sales and operating profit and EPS and ahead of our long-term algorithm for dividend growth, which reflects the strong year we just had as well as our confidence in the year ahead. And so as we -- you're right, we've been investing for growth. We'll continue to invest for growth while we continue to drive higher levels of productivity, which you saw in our release and while supply chain disruptions get less, which, I think again, allow us to drive gross margin, which creates a really good flywheel for growth. And so as you take a step back from last week's Nielsen data, what happened this last quarter, we feel great about the year that was and we feel confident about the year that's going to come up.

如果你展望未來，我們將在銷售、營業利潤和每股收益方面的所有指標上走上正軌，並領先於我們的股息增長長期算法，這反映了我們剛剛經歷的強勁的一年以及我們的信心在未來的一年裡。所以我們——你是對的，我們一直在為增長而投資。我們將繼續投資促進增長，同時繼續提高生產力水平，正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，同時供應鏈中斷減少，我再次認為，這使我們能夠提高毛利率，這創造了非常好的毛利率。飛輪的增長。因此，當您從上週的尼爾森數據退一步看，上個季度發生的事情時，我們對過去的一年感覺很好，並且對即將到來的一年充滿信心。

And I think that confidence stems from the fact that we have been agile in last few years. And it's not an accident, we've grown share in the majority of our categories each of the last 5 years, and it's been hard work and good marketing. And as we look at the growth ahead, one of the things we're excited about is that the freeing up of supply chain and the normalization of supply chain gets us back to the kind of productivity we've been looking for and gets us back to getting rid of some of the pandemic era costs. But more importantly, frees the rest of the organization up to get distribution to drive the innovation. We've got a really good new product innovation this coming year. And then finally, that's our marketers market, and we've got really good ideas. And so we feel good, and I appreciate the step back.

我認為這種信心源於我們在過去幾年中一直保持敏捷的事實。這並非偶然，過去 5 年我們在大多數類別的份額都在增長，這得益於我們的努力工作和良好的營銷。當我們展望未來的增長時，我們感到興奮的一件事是，供應鏈的自由化和供應鏈的正常化讓我們回到了我們一直在尋找的生產力，並讓我們回到了以前的狀態。消除大流行時代的一些成本。但更重要的是，讓組織的其他部門能夠騰出時間來進行分配以推動創新。明年我們將推出非常好的新產品創新。最後，這是我們的營銷人員市場，我們有非常好的想法。所以我們感覺很好，我很欣賞退後一步。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯·戈德曼。

I just wanted to ask a little bit about the decline in retail inventory. I'm just curious, can we get a little bit of color on which of the categories that maybe felt the biggest impact this particular quarter. And I guess also, it's certainly encouraging to hear that the worst is over, as you see it when it comes to this particular temporary headwind. But I think for some of us on the outside or at least me, it does feel like a little bit of a red flag, right, that maybe end user demand isn't quite as strong as what you had hoped.

我只是想問一下零售庫存下降的情況。我只是好奇，我們能否了解一下本季度受影響最大的類別。我想，聽到最糟糕的時期已經過去，這當然令人鼓舞，正如你在面對這種特殊的暫時逆風時所看到的那樣。但我認為對於我們中的一些外部人士或至少對我來說，這確實感覺有點危險，對吧，也許最終用戶的需求並不像您所希望的那麼強烈。

So I appreciate that your customers are trying to get their inventories into a better place. And we're just not necessarily hearing that from many of your packaged food peers. So I'm just curious what gives you the confidence that it's not necessarily a General Mills' specific dynamic that's happening there?

因此，我很感激您的客戶正在努力將他們的庫存轉移到更好的地方。我們不一定從許多包裝食品同行那裡聽到這一點。所以我只是好奇是什麼讓你相信這不一定是通用磨坊發生的特定動態？

Yes, Ken, this is Jeff. Let me start off with kind of how I see this broadly and then maybe Jon Nudi can provide some commentary specifically. But -- and look, I respect the fact that the factory inventory decline was a surprise given our strong Nielsen trends, and we feel great about our movement trends. And we did have a 5-point headwind in this quarter, and we didn't see that coming when the quarter began. So that is true.

是的，肯，這是傑夫。讓我首先談談我對這一問題的廣泛看法，然後也許喬恩·努迪可以具體提供一些評論。但是，我尊重這樣一個事實：鑑於我們強勁的尼爾森趨勢，工廠庫存下降是一個意外，而且我們對我們的運動趨勢感覺很好。本節我們確實遇到了 5 分的逆風，但在本節開始時我們並沒有看到這種情況的發生。所以這是真的。

What I'm pleased with is actually we were able to hit our guidance on profitability and exceed margins and EPS despite the fact that we had this big headwind. We don't see this as a General Mills specific trend, and we don't see this as something going forward. It truly is a couple of our big customers were trying to get their inventories back to a good place and which I understand, the carrying cost of inventory is higher, interest rates are up. They're trying to work their balance sheets. And so in retrospect, perhaps it shouldn't have been a surprise, but it certainly was an order of magnitude. I don't see it as a red flag for us. And I'm not -- I don't see it actually as a red flag for the industry as well. But I want you to know from my chair, it's something that's kind of behind us and it's not General Mills specific. But Jon, if you have any specifics you want to add?

我感到高興的是，儘管我們面臨著巨大的阻力，但實際上我們能夠達到我們的盈利指引，並超過利潤率和每股收益。我們不認為這是通用磨坊的特定趨勢，也不認為這是未來的趨勢。這確實是我們的一些大客戶試圖將他們的庫存恢復到一個好的地方，據我了解，庫存的持有成本更高，利率也上升。他們正在努力調整資產負債表。所以回想起來，也許這不應該令人驚訝，但它確實是一個數量級。我不認為這對我們來說是一個危險信號。我也不認為這實際上是該行業的危險信號。但我想讓你們從我的椅子上知道，這是我們身後的事情，而且不是通用磨坊特有的。但是喬恩，你有什麼要補充的細節嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Ken, so as Jeff mentioned, we did see a 5-point gap between the Nielsen movement and RNS this quarter. For the year, that was a 2-point gap. And it's not something that's new. We've seen this phenomenon for 6 of the last 8 quarters. So as Jeff mentioned, retailers are focused on inventory. One of the things that we feel more confident about is being able to supply the business after all the supply disruptions in the last few years, so it feels like they don't have to carry as much safety stock. In addition to that, obviously, the inventory is more expensive. So working capital is a focus as well.

是的，一點沒錯。 Ken，正如 Jeff 提到的，本季度我們確實看到尼爾森運動和 RNS 之間有 5 分的差距。就今年而言，這是2分的差距。這不是什麼新鮮事。過去 8 個季度中有 6 個季度我們都看到了這種現象。正如傑夫提到的，零售商關注的是庫存。我們感到更有信心的一件事是，在過去幾年的所有供應中斷之後，能夠為業務提供服務，因此感覺他們不必攜帶那麼多的安全庫存。除此之外，顯然庫存更貴。因此，營運資金也是一個重點。

As we look at the absolute levels of inventory, there are some of the lowest levels we've seen on record. So again, we don't believe that we can go much lower. What we can focus on are the controllables. So that's making sure that we have good marketing and driver baselines and our merchandising, and we feel great about that. We feel really good about the movement of 10% in Q4. So again, we feel like this was a onetime headwind. We're not expecting to rebuild those inventories. But at the same time, we don't expect another leg down in fiscal '24.

當我們觀察庫存的絕對水平時，我們發現一些庫存水平是有記錄以來的最低水平。再說一次，我們不相信我們可以走得更低。我們可以關注的是可控因素。因此，這確保了我們擁有良好的營銷和駕駛員基線以及我們的商品推銷，我們對此感覺很好。我們對第四季度 10% 的變動感到非常滿意。所以，我們再次覺得這只是一次逆風。我們不希望重建這些庫存。但與此同時，我們預計 24 財年不會再出現下滑。

And if I can just ask a very quick follow-up for Jeff, the Pet business had a little bit of a ups and downs during this past year. A lot of which is sort of out of your control in terms of supply. Is it reasonable to expect that we'll see an acceleration in your organic growth this year? Or is it still going to be held back for most of the year by some of the supply issues that you have that are, of course, temporary?

如果我可以快速詢問傑夫的後續情況，寵物業務在過去的一年裡經歷了一些起伏。其中很多在供應方面都超出了您的控制範圍。預計今年你們的有機增長是否會加速？或者說，今年的大部分時間裡，它是否仍然會因為一些暫時的供應問題而受到阻礙？

Yes. The -- we did have -- we had a rough start to the first half of the year. There's no question about that. And the primary driver of that was lack of capacity. What I feel very good about in our Pet business is that we've rebounded and our service levels are back in the 90s. The Pet team worked very hard to get there. It's more expensive than we would like because we have to go outside for external supply chain, but we've rebuilt our capacity. So that's not a concern going forward.

是的。我們確實有過，今年上半年我們的開局很艱難。毫無疑問。其主要原因是產能不足。我對我們的寵物業務感到非常滿意的是，我們已經反彈，我們的服務水平回到了 90 年代。 Pet 團隊非常努力才達到這個目標。這比我們想要的要貴，因為我們必須到外面尋找外部供應鏈，但我們已經重建了我們的產能。所以這不是未來的問題。

What I also feel good about is we did what we said we're going to do. We said we're going to grow at double digits in the back half of the year, and we have done that. I would also say that our dry pet food business is getting better, and we thought that would be the first recoverer and it has. It's responded very well to advertising. Life Protection Formula, I think, was up more than 20% in the fourth quarter. Our treats business, we said would improve, but would follow that and it has, and it actually grew in the fourth quarter and there is much more to do on treats. We can now market that business, and we have full capacity. And then we set our wet pet food business would lag and unfortunately, we were right up that too, and it did lag.

我還感到高興的是我們做了我們說過要做的事情。我們說過下半年要實現兩位數增長，我們也做到了。我還想說，我們的干寵物食品業務正在變得更好，我們認為這將是第一個恢復者，而且它確實做到了。它對廣告的反應非常好。我認為人壽保險配方在第四季度上漲了 20% 以上。我們說我們的零食業務會有所改善，但隨之而來的是，它確實做到了，而且它實際上在第四季度有所增長，在零食方面還有很多工作要做。我們現在可以營銷該業務，並且我們有充分的能力。然後我們設定我們的濕寵物食品業務將會滯後，不幸的是，我們也做到了這一點，而且它確實滯後了。

And so I think for our pet food business, I would characterize it, I feel good that we have improved and there is more work yet to do. And so as we look at this coming year, our supply should not be an issue for us. It will come at a higher cost. So I still expect us to grow our sales and maybe our profit, a tons ahead of sales, but a big improvement in profitability I wouldn't think would come until fiscal '25 when we can internalize all of our capacity.

因此，我認為對於我們的寵物食品業務，我會對其進行描述，我很高興我們已經取得了進步，並且還有更多的工作要做。因此，當我們展望來年時，我們的供應不應成為問題。它將付出更高的成本。因此，我仍然期望我們的銷售額和利潤能夠增長，遠遠超出銷售額，但我認為盈利能力的大幅改善要到 25 財年我們才能內部化我們的所有產能。

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

I guess, in the prepared remarks, you mentioned that volume in fiscal '24 should be improved relative to the decline you saw in '23. Just to clarify, should we take that to mean volume is potentially still down year-over-year, so like better than the minus 4% decline that we saw last fiscal year? And then if it is going to be a pricing-led organic top line growth sort of here in fiscal '24, and I think most of it, you said was from wraparound pricing from actions taken in the second half of '23. I guess, is there a possibility, and I'm just trying to think ahead here, that there's a period of time maybe where organic sales could even go negative for a bit later in the fiscal year until sort of volume catches up?

我想，在準備好的發言中，您提到 24 財年的銷量相對於 23 財年的下降應該有所改善。澄清一下，我們是否應該認為這意味著成交量可能仍同比下降，比我們上一財年看到的-4% 的下降要好？然後，如果 24 財年將出現定價主導的有機營收增長，我認為其中大部分增長來自 23 財年下半年採取的總體定價。我想，是否有可能，我只是想提前思考一下，在一段時間內，有機銷售額甚至可能在本財年晚些時候出現負數，直到銷量趕上？

Yes, Andrew, I'll take it and then Kofi jump in if there's anything you want to add. Our expectation -- yet again, we don't give specific volume guideline growth. But having said that, we said our top line to grow 3% to 4%, and we'll have mid-single-digit inflation, roughly 5%. And so we do see pricing this year. I'm confident that our pounds will be better in fiscal 24 than they were in fiscal '23, which is to say they'll certainly decline less. Whether they get to positive or not? We'll see. That's a really difficult thing to call, especially because of the mix factor involved.

是的，安德魯，我會接受，如果您有什麼要補充的，科菲也可以加入。我們的預期——再次強調，我們沒有給出具體的銷量增長指引。但話雖如此，我們表示我們的收入將增長 3% 至 4%，通脹率將達到中個位數，大約為 5%。所以我們確實看到了今年的定價。我相信我們的英鎊在 24 財年會比 23 財年更好，也就是說，英鎊的跌幅肯定會更少。他們是否變得積極？我們拭目以待。這是一件非常困難的事情，特別是因為涉及到混合因素。

I'll give you this last quarter in China, our sales really nicely, but our pounds were down is because we sold more expensive Haagen-Dazs ice cream and less Wanchai Ferry dumplings. The same could be truth said of our foodservice business where we sold less flour and more of other things. So our pounds were down. So pound is a little bit tricky because of mix, but in all I would expect that our sales certainly won't -- our pounds certainly won't be as negative as they were and they may be positive. We'll wait and see. But I think it will be much more competitive on that front. But for sure, we'll see some pricing because we still see inflation in the marketplace.

我會告訴你上個季度在中國的情況，我們的銷售非常好，但我們的英鎊下降是因為我們銷售了更昂貴的哈根達斯冰淇淋和更少的灣仔碼頭餃子。對於我們的餐飲服務業務來說，情況也是如此，我們銷售的麵粉減少了，而其他東西的銷售增加了。所以我們的體重下降了。因此，由於混合因素，英鎊有點棘手，但總的來說，我預計我們的銷售額肯定不會——我們的英鎊肯定不會像以前那樣為負值，而且可能會為正值。我們拭目以待。但我認為在這方面它將更具競爭力。但可以肯定的是，我們會看到一些定價，因為我們仍然看到市場上的通貨膨脹。

Andrew, this is Kofi. The only other thing I would add is just given the comps, we would expect a little bit more weighting to the front half on the growth profile versus the back half.

安德魯，這是科菲。我要補充的唯一一件事是考慮到比較，我們預計前半部分的增長概況與後半部分的權重會更大一些。

Got it. And then just a super quick follow-up just to the inventory piece, just to put a sort of point on that. With supply chain constraints easing, and obviously, General Mills is looking to get back to much more active merchandising and display activity and all of that. I guess I would have thought that retailer inventory reductions would be sort of counter to that dynamic, right, wanting to get out there collectively and collaboratively and get going on merchandising and really driving volume and whatnot.

知道了。然後只是對庫存部分進行超級快速的跟進，只是為了說明這一點。隨著供應鏈限制的緩解，顯然，通用磨坊正在尋求恢復更加活躍的銷售和展示活動等。我想我會認為零售商庫存減少會與這種動態背道而馳，對吧，想要集體協作，繼續推銷並真正推動銷量等等。

I guess what am I missing on that thought process? Is it just that retailers are so much more confident now that they can get what they need when they need it from you and others that the safety stock that was more aggressive, just isn't needed? Or -- because I would think if it's the first time in a couple of years that you can get out and really drive the business, everyone would be, I don't know, maybe it's naive, but okay with a little more inventory just to make sure you have it on hand?

我想我在這個思考過程中錯過了什麼？難道只是零售商現在更有信心，他們可以在需要時從您和其他人那裡獲得所需的東西，而不再需要更積極的安全庫存？或者 - 因為我認為，如果這是幾年來你第一次能夠走出去並真正推動業務發展，那麼每個人都會，我不知道，也許這很天真，但是多一點庫存就可以了確保你手頭有它？

Yes, Andrew, this is Jon. I think it's a fair question for sure. I've had a chance to check in with a couple of our major retailers then. Again, I think everyone is just trying to figure out the way forward. And I think for the immediate term, and if you think about some of our big retailers, not only carry food but they carry general merchandise. There's been a big focus on just making sure they get inventories in check. And they feel like when they're in check, they can then drive the business moving forward.

是的，安德魯，這是喬恩。我認為這肯定是一個公平的問題。當時我有機會拜訪了我們的幾家主要零售商。再說一遍，我認為每個人都只是想找出前進的方向。我認為從短期來看，如果你考慮一下我們的一些大型零售商，他們不僅銷售食品，還銷售一般商品。人們非常關注確保他們控制庫存。他們覺得，當他們受到控制時，他們就可以推動業務向前發展。

So I think they -- we're definitely holding a bit more stock because even until 6 months ago, we had supply disruptions throughout many of our categories when they feel better about the supplies they felt like they could bring it down a bit. As we move forward, again, I think as we get the bottom line, the volume moving and it really gets back to merchandising. We would expect retailers to certainly support that and bring it in. Again, I think it's a point in time and that's something we're reading into the future. And again, as I talk to these retailers, I don't think that they plan to bring them down off in the future. And to the extent we can drive the top line, they'll continue to invest behind inventory as well.

所以我認為他們——我們肯定持有更多的庫存，因為即使直到 6 個月前，我們的許多類別都出現了供應中斷，當他們對供應感覺更好時，他們覺得他們可以把庫存減少一點。當我們再次前進時，我認為當我們得到底線時，銷量就會發生變化，並且真正回到商品銷售上。我們希望零售商肯定會支持這一點並將其引入。同樣，我認為這是一個時間點，也是我們對未來的解讀。再說一次，當我與這些零售商交談時，我認為他們不打算在未來讓他們失望。在我們能夠推動收入增長的範圍內，他們也將繼續在庫存方面進行投資。

Next question is from the line of Cody Ross of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的科迪·羅斯。

This is Brandon Cohen filling in for Cody Ross. So you mentioned in the prepared remarks that with your current debt levels, you have more flexibility for M&A going forward. What categories are, you targeting? And what are the main characteristics that you're looking for in an acquisition target?

我是布蘭登·科恩 (Brandon Cohen) 接替科迪·羅斯 (Cody Ross)。因此，您在準備好的發言中提到，根據您目前的債務水平，您未來的併購有更大的靈活性。您的目標類別是什麼？您在收購目標中尋找的主要特徵是什麼？

So let me -- so it is true, our balance sheet is in great shape, thanks to the profitability we've had for the last few years as well as all the work we've done to unpayables, receivables asset. So our balance sheet is in really good shape. We do have a lot of flexibility. The first point I would say that even though we have a lot of flexibility, we're still going to remain disciplined. To the extent we look at M&A, we have about 50 basis points of growth we'd like to get from M&A over the coming years, both through acquisitions and divestitures. And so in general, we'll look for businesses that are accretive to our growth. And in categories we're already in or adjacent to categories we already participate where we think we have a competitive advantage.

所以讓我來說一下——確實，我們的資產負債表狀況良好，這要歸功於我們過去幾年的盈利能力以及我們在應付賬款、應收賬款資產方面所做的所有工作。所以我們的資產負債表狀況非常良好。我們確實有很大的靈活性。我想說的第一點是，儘管我們有很大的靈活性，但我們仍然會保持紀律。就我們的併購而言，我們希望在未來幾年通過收購和剝離實現約 50 個基點的增長。因此，總的來說，我們會尋找能夠促進我們增長的業務。在我們已經參與或鄰近的類別中，我們認為我們具有競爭優勢。

And to the extent we do those things and they're bolt-on acquisitions, we would expect some synergies to come with that growth. And so I'm not going to get into a specific category that we're looking at. You can probably guess them as well as anyone else. But they would be growth -- but I can't say they'll be growth oriented, and there will be places where we think we have competitive advantage, and we can create value for shareholders.

在我們做這些事情並且它們是補強收購的程度上，我們預計這種增長會帶來一些協同效應。因此，我不會討論我們正在研究的特定類別。您可能可以像其他人一樣猜出它們。但它們會是增長——但我不能說它們會以增長為導向，而且在某些地方我們認為我們擁有競爭優勢，我們可以為股東創造價值。

Our next question is from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

Your gross margin was a highlight in the quarter. I just wanted to get a sense for you're thinking about gross margins in fiscal '24. And then for the 5% input cost inflation outlook, I guess, could you just give us a sense for how you're thinking about the cadence and how that influences the cadence of your gross margin for the year?

您的毛利率是本季度的一大亮點。我只是想了解一下您正在考慮 24 財年的毛利率。然後，對於 5% 的投入成本通脹前景，我想，您能否讓我們了解一下您如何考慮節奏以及這如何影響您今年毛利率的節奏？

Well, Pamela, first of all, thank you for asking about that. Gross margin was a highlight for that quarter. And it was a highlight for a year and I think it will be highlight in the coming year as well, and we're really proud of what we were able to do on the gross margin front over the last couple of years. And so probably turn it over to Kofi with more specifics but I appreciate the question.

帕梅拉，首先，感謝您詢問這個問題。毛利率是該季度的一大亮點。這是一年的亮點，我認為這也將是來年的亮點，我們對過去幾年在毛利率方面取得的成績感到非常自豪。因此，可能會將更多細節交給科菲，但我很欣賞這個問題。

And I would just add, I think we have made some really good progress in moving back towards our pre-pandemic gross margin. We still have a little bit of work to do and obviously if you read our guidance, you can expect that we expect to make further progress towards recovering our gross margin levels. I think the important thing to note in our guidance surrounding inflation is that we see it moderate but there will still be inflation above sort of the historic levels we would expect to see in our category. And as we work through the year, I wouldn't necessarily call out anything notable as you expect the quarterly flow to play out other than the comments I made about sales and the expectation of the price/mix and SRM actions and the interaction of those on the top line.

我想補充一點，我認為我們在回到大流行前的毛利率方面取得了一些非常好的進展。我們還有一些工作要做，顯然，如果您閱讀我們的指導，您可以預期我們將在恢復毛利率水平方面取得進一步進展。我認為在我們關於通脹的指導中需要注意的重要一點是，我們認為通脹溫和，但通脹仍將高於我們預期在我們類別中看到的歷史水平。當我們全年工作時，除了我對銷售、價格/組合和 SRM 行動的預期以及這些因素的相互作用所做的評論之外，我不一定會指出任何值得注意的事情，因為您預計季度流量會發揮作用。在頂行。

I think the key thing for us, though, is that we do see a step-up in our HMM levels, 4%, a 1-point step up from the past couple of years where we've been kind of underdelivered at 3%. With the moderation of supply chain that we certainly have higher confidence in being able to pull that off as well as our confidence in our ability to take out some of the significant levels of cost and continue to take out some of the significant levels of operating costs that we put into our business model to manage through service disruptions. So all those things give us the confidence that we should be able to continue to drive back towards pre-pandemic level gross margin.

不過，我認為對我們來說最重要的是，我們確實看到我們的 HMM 水平有所提高，達到 4%，比過去幾年我們在 3% 的水平上表現不佳的情況提高了 1 個百分點。隨著供應鏈的緩和，我們當然對能夠實現這一目標更有信心，也對我們有能力消除一些高水平的成本並繼續消除一些高水平的運營成本充滿信心我們將其納入我們的業務模型中以管理服務中斷。因此，所有這些都讓我們有信心，我們應該能夠繼續恢復到大流行前的毛利率水平。

And my second question is just around the promotional environment and your outlook for promotions and brand building. How are you thinking about reinvestment levels in fiscal '24? And any color on the mix between price promotions versus marketing and advertising?

我的第二個問題是關於促銷環境以及您對促銷和品牌建設的看法。您如何看待 24 財年的再投資水平？價格促銷與營銷和廣告之間的組合有何不同？

Yes, I would say on the -- as we look ahead to our marketing and our -- the promotion environment, the first thing I would say is really important to remember that we still have inflation. I mean there have been a lot of commentary about disinflation or going negative, but we don't actually see that. And it's driven by labor cost inflating. So I think that's the first and most important thing to remember as it relates to the promotion environment.

是的，我要說的是，當我們展望我們的營銷和促銷環境時，我要說的第一件事非常重要的是要記住我們仍然存在通貨膨脹。我的意思是，有很多關於通貨緊縮或負值的評論，但我們實際上並沒有看到這一點。這是由勞動力成本上漲推動的。所以我認為這是首先要記住的也是最重要的事情，因為它與促銷環境有關。

We would expect that promotional frequency would increase a little bit and importantly, the quality of our merchandising, especially display merchandising, will improve. And the reason we think that will improve is that retailers have more confidence that we'll be able to supply the business because our service levels are back in the 90s. And when that happens, they're more confident in displaying, display merchandising for us has very high rates. And so -- and it does for a retailer as well. So we're kind of aligned and wanting to do that. And now we feel as if we can.

我們預計促銷頻率會增加一點，重要的是，我們的商品推銷，特別是展示商品推銷的質量將會提高。我們認為這種情況將會改善的原因是零售商對我們能夠提供業務更有信心，因為我們的服務水平回到了 90 年代。當這種情況發生時，他們對展示更有信心，對我們來說展示商品的比率非常高。如此——對於零售商來說也是如此。所以我們有點一致並且想要這樣做。現在我們覺得我們可以。

And so as I look ahead, I'm not sure the promotion intensity is really going to increase that much. I think it's going to be maybe a little bit of frequency and actually more quality, if you will, merchandising levels. As it relates to marketing, we really like our marketing across our biggest categories, and that's why we've been investing in it. And we'll continue to invest in it. I'm not going to lay out a number on our marketing will improve X percent, but what we have said is long term, our marketing spend will grow in line with our sales growth.

因此，展望未來，我不確定促銷力度是否真的會增加那麼多。我認為可能會增加一點頻率，實際上會提高質量，如果你願意的話，推銷水平。由於它與營銷有關，我們真的很喜歡我們最大類別的營銷，這就是我們一直在這方面進行投資的原因。我們將繼續對此進行投資。我不會列出我們的營銷將提高 X% 的數字，但我們所說的是長期來看，我們的營銷支出將隨著我們的銷售增長而增長。

And over the past few years, our marketing is actually up 35% versus pre-pandemic levels. So we've actually done that which will benefit us in this year ahead because what I can tell you is that consumers in this environment and customers, they're all looking for new ideas and ways and our customers are looking for ways to grow. And so we feel good about our marketing spend in the year ahead.

在過去的幾年裡，我們的營銷實際上比大流行前的水平增長了 35%。因此，我們實際上已經做了這將使我們在未來一年受益的事情，因為我可以告訴你的是，在這種環境下的消費者和客戶，他們都在尋找新的想法和方法，而我們的客戶正在尋找增長的方法。因此，我們對未來一年的營銷支出感到滿意。

Our next question is from the line of David Palmer of Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

As you were setting your guidance for fiscal '24, what was the -- what were the biggest challenges to visibility or variables that you're thinking about for this year? Is it simply North America retail consumer demand or other factors?

當您為 24 財年制定指導時，您考慮的今年對可見性或變量的最大挑戰是什麼？僅僅是北美零售消費者的需求還是其他因素？

Yes. That's certainly the state of the consumer, the interaction of, frankly, all of the interest rate environment and the expectation of potential economic slowdown on consumer behavior is certainly variable that's a very front and center for us as we set the guidance.

是的。這當然是消費者的狀態，坦率地說，所有利率環境和潛在經濟放緩預期對消費者行為的相互作用肯定是可變的，這是我們制定指導方針時的一個非常前沿和中心的內容。

Obviously, inflation remains at least sticky and above expectations. And I think the challenge of setting expectations is an environment that any one of those -- and visibility in any one of those factors is hard enough, the interaction is what gives us sort of the challenge of setting the frame for the year. But we're confident that kind of whatever operating environment actually shows up, that we will be able to respond and pivot as needed.

顯然，通脹至少仍處於粘性並高於預期。我認為設定期望的挑戰是環境中的任何一個 - 並且任何一個因素的可見性都足夠困難，相互作用給我們帶來了設定今年框架的挑戰。但我們相信，無論實際出現什麼操作環境，我們都能夠根據需要做出響應和調整。

Yes. I wonder how you were thinking about that North America consumer demand, given the industry has been slowing on a multiyear basis right through the last month or so. And I'm just wondering if you're assuming that, that recent rate, I mean, we hesitate to use 4-week data to project anything else, but I also hesitate to use even 12-week when the multiyear has been breaking down for the industry. So I'm wondering how you assume that multiyear trend and how you think about that demand in '24 given the slowing in the industry on the consumer lately?

是的。我想知道您如何看待北美消費者的需求，因為該行業在過去一個月左右的時間裡一直在多年放緩。我只是想知道你是否假設，最近的利率，我的意思是，我們猶豫是否使用 4 週數據來預測其他數據，但當多年數據被打破時，我什至也猶豫是否使用 12 週數據對於行業來說。因此，我想知道您如何看待這種多年趨勢，以及考慮到最近該行業對消費者的需求放緩，您如何看待 24 年的需求？

No, I think that's very fair, David. And I can understand your angst on this point. I guess I would do a couple of things. We would been talking about 3-year -- 3-week data. Last time I remember talking about 3-week data was back in December when there was a panic about what was going to happen due to timing of Christmas and New Year and Nielsen data and then it turned out that it wasn't as bad as people thought. So I think that's a cautionary tale about 3-week data.

不，我認為這很公平，大衛。我可以理解你在這一點上的焦慮。我想我會做幾件事。我們討論的是三年三週的數據。我記得上次談論 3 週數據是在 12 月，當時由於聖誕節、新年和尼爾森數據的時間安排，人們對即將發生的事情感到恐慌，然後事實證明，情況並沒有人們想像的那麼糟糕想法。所以我認為這是一個關於三週數據的警示故事。

The other thing I would say is that if you look at 2-year comparisons over the last few weeks, what you'll see is that over the last couple of years, the trends haven't changed all that much. Having said that, I mean, as you look at the last 2 weeks, it's pretty clear that elasticity -- volume elasticities have increased. And it's something that we expected, and we've baked into our guidance for the year. And so elasticities have not been 0, but they've been quite low. We would anticipate as the year goes on, that elasticities will increase, and that's what we have seen. And so I want you to know we're not too surprised by the last quarter's trend and it's anticipated in our guidance.

我要說的另一件事是，如果你看一下過去幾週的兩年比較，你會發現在過去幾年裡，趨勢並沒有發生太大變化。話雖如此，我的意思是，從過去兩週的情況來看，很明顯彈性——成交量彈性有所增加。這是我們所期望的，並且我們已將其納入今年的指導中。因此，彈性雖然不是 0，但相當低。我們預計隨著時間的推移，彈性將會增加，這就是我們所看到的。因此，我想讓您知道，我們對上個季度的趨勢並不感到太驚訝，並且這是我們的指導中所預期的。

And so that's what -- but look, it's a hard period to model from that perspective, but that's what we think is going to happen is that well, elasticities will increase, but that's accounted for in our guidance already. In the last 3 week trends, I wouldn't follow those all the way out the window.

所以這就是——但是看，從這個角度來看，這是一個很難建模的時期，但我們認為將會發生的情況是，彈性將會增加，但這已經在我們的指導中考慮到了。在過去三週的趨勢中，我不會完全跟隨這些趨勢。

Our next question is from the line of Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport。

It's nice to see the recovery in dry pet food and treats, however, it does sound like the trends in wet pet food have been a bit challenged. What I understand it seems like maybe it's a mix of your own service levels as well as some category weakness as a result of changes in the consumer economic environment and consumer behavior as well. I was hoping you could talk a bit about what you're seeing in that subsegment and what you expect in terms of a recovery moving forward?

很高興看到干寵物食品和零食的複蘇，但是，聽起來濕寵物食品的趨勢確實受到了一些挑戰。據我了解，這可能是您自己的服務水平以及由於消費者經濟環境和消費者行為的變化而導致的某些類別弱點的混合。我希望您能談談您在該細分市場中看到的情況以及您對未來復甦的期望？

Yes, Max, I think you just you summarized it nicely. What we see here, there are a couple of different trends. And remember, the pet category is almost a $50 billion category. So there can be lots of trends going on at the same time. Importantly, there's still a trend toward humanization, which is why I think you see our dry pet food recovering so nicely and why you see our treats business recovering. At the same time, there is -- people are more mobile. And so they're not -- in aggregate, the Treat segment is down a little bit, and the Wet segment is down a little bit because consumers are not home as much. And so they can't do it on their pass as much as when they are at home all the time.

是的，麥克斯，我認為你總結得很好。我們在這裡看到有一些不同的趨勢。請記住，寵物類別幾乎是一個價值 500 億美元的類別。因此，可能會同時出現多種趨勢。重要的是，人性化的趨勢仍然存在，這就是為什麼我認為您會看到我們的干寵物食品恢復得如此之好，以及為什麼您會看到我們的零食業務正在恢復。與此同時，人們的流動性也增強了。因此，總的來說，零食部分略有下降，而濕部分則略有下降，因為消費者不太在家。因此，他們無法像在家時那樣在通行證上完成這些工作。

On top of that, as consumers are feeling the pinch from inflation, there is some downward pressure in several other places on sales. And I think you see that most pronounced in Wet Foods, a little bit a treat. It's a tailwind for our dry pet food business. And so that's one of the reasons why we see that improving. And so -- but I think in general, you have the plot, which is that our wet pet food business has not recovered as fast as we thought. Part of it is due to mobility, part of it is due to service and part of it is due to behavior in the current environment.

除此之外，由於消費者感受到通貨膨脹的壓力，其他幾個地方的銷售也面臨一些下行壓力。我想你會在濕食品中看到這一點最明顯，有點享受。這對我們的干寵物食品業務來說是一個順風車。這就是我們看到這種情況有所改善的原因之一。所以，但我認為總的來說，你有這樣的情節，那就是我們的濕寵物食品業務並沒有像我們想像的那麼快恢復。一部分是由於移動性，一部分是由於服務，一部分是由於當前環境中的行為。

Great. Appreciate it. And one follow-up would be on volume for fiscal '24. You gave 3 reasons to believe we could see some improvement at least in the rate of decline, and we've touched on 2 of them on the call, but I was hoping to move to the capacity side regarding the constrained platforms of pet, hot snacks and fruit snacks. Any way you can help us get a sense of the increase in pounds that you might expect in fiscal '24 on those platforms?

偉大的。欣賞它。後續行動將是 24 財年的銷量。您給出了 3 個理由，讓我們相信我們至少可以看到下降速度有所改善，我們在電話會議上談到了其中的 2 個，但我希望能轉向關於寵物、熱門平台受限的容量方面。零食和水果零食。您可以通過什麼方式幫助我們了解您在 24 財年這些平台上可能預期的英鎊增長情況？

Yes. So you're right, Max. Those 4 platforms, we do have significant capital investment coming online. The first 3, excluding exclusive of pet, we would expect to see some of that capacity impact this fiscal year. The pet capacity comes online really pretty late in the year, so we would have a very modest impact on our ability to internalize some of the supply for dry dog food.

是的。所以你是對的，麥克斯。我們確實在這四個平台上投入了大量資金。前 3 個（不包括寵物），我們預計本財年將看到部分產能影響。寵物產能在今年很晚才上線，因此我們對部分乾狗糧供應的內部化能力的影響非常有限。

And Max, I would just say, beyond capacity, supply disruptions are probably the biggest tailwind for us. Last year at this time, we had significant issues on things like yogurt and bars. This year, we're feeling much better about the way we're performing. So at least for North America retail, we feel really good that we'll be able to supply all of our businesses and merchandise behind them for the first time in several years, which we feel very proud about.

麥克斯，我只想說，除了產能之外，供應中斷可能是我們最大的推動力。去年的這個時候，我們在酸奶和巧克力棒等方面遇到了重大問題。今年，我們對自己的表現感覺好多了。因此，至少對於北美零售業來說，我們感覺非常好，因為我們將能夠在幾年內首次向其所有業務和商品提供支持，對此我們感到非常自豪。

Max, maybe -- this is Jeff Siemon. I'd add one on pet, Kofi is exactly right that our internal capacity comes online in about a year. But we did have some external capacity in the last couple of quarters. So that will give us an opportunity too, and it has already given us an opportunity to improve service both on our treats business as well as in our dry business.

麥克斯，也許——這是傑夫·西蒙。我想在寵物上添加一個，科菲說得完全正確，我們的內部能力將在大​​約一年內上線。但過去幾個季度我們確實擁有一些外部產能。因此，這也將給我們一個機會，它已經給了我們一個機會來改善我們的零食業務和乾貨業務的服務。

Our next question is from the line of Matthew Smith with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Matthew Smith 和 Stifel。

I wanted to ask a follow-up question on the pet business. The profit recovery there is underway, and there's been some commentary that you expect operating profit to grow a bit faster than organic sales in fiscal '24. Can you provide some color on the puts and takes for the margin recovery after a couple of years where we've seen the margin compress? I know you have incremental capacity coming online. It sounds like that's later in the year for external supply chain costs are lower across the organization, and you have some pricing there. So what are the offsets benefiting or limiting that margin expansion in '24?

我想問一個關於寵物業務的後續問題。那裡的利潤正在復蘇，並且有一些評論稱您預計 24 財年營業利潤的增長速度將略快於有機銷售額的增長速度。在我們看到利潤率壓縮的幾年後，您能否提供一些有關看跌期權和看跌期權的保證金恢復情況的信息？我知道您的在線容量有所增加。聽起來好像是今年晚些時候，因為整個組織的外部供應鏈成本較低，並且您在那裡有一些定價。那麼，哪些抵消措施有利於或限制 24 年利潤率的擴張呢？

I would say on the benefits side to margin expansion, we have some pricing that we have already taken that kind of wraps around in the current year, and you see that in the current results. You certainly saw that in the fourth quarter. You'll also see our productivity levels in pet are good. And the fact that our supply chain has not disrupted also helps bring down the cost. And so all of those things go to the gross margin level.

我想說的是，在利潤率擴張的好處方面，我們已經在今年採取了一些定價，你可以在當前的業績中看到這一點。你肯定在第四季度看到了這一點。您還會發現我們在寵物方面的生產力水平很高。我們的供應鏈沒有中斷這一事實也有助於降低成本。因此，所有這些因素都會影響毛利率水平。

Kind of what partially offsets that is the fact that we have external manufacturing and not our own internal manufacturing. And so the benefits of some of that will not be as great as they would have been otherwise. I would also say that we're really -- we -- as much as we are on -- focused on profit recovery on Pet, we really want to drive growth. And so we will invest in marketing and capabilities to make sure that we accelerate our top line growth on that. And so we may see a little bit more gross margin expansion than we do operating margin expansion. And that's simply because as we get healthier on supply chain, we'll reinvest some of those savings back into driving top line growth on Pet.

部分抵消這一事實的是我們擁有外部製造，而不是我們自己的內部製造。因此，其中一些好處不會像不這樣做那樣大。我還想說，我們確實——我們——盡我們所能——專注於寵物的利潤恢復，我們真的想推動增長。因此，我們將投資於營銷和能力，以確保我們加快營收增長。因此，我們可能會看到毛利率的擴張比營業利潤的擴張要多一些。這僅僅是因為，隨著我們的供應鏈變得更加健康，我們將把其中一些節省的資金重新投資到推動寵物業務的收入增長。

The only thing I would add is just there might be a modest mix of business headwind from production, just a little bit less wet obviously, given the macro trends that Jeff referenced in. So as you take that into account, that would be a put.

我唯一要補充的是，考慮到傑夫提到的宏觀趨勢，生產可能會帶來適度的業務逆風，只是明顯不那麼潮濕。因此，當你考慮到這一點時，這將是一個看跌期權。

The next question is from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Kofi, I just had two questions related to the cash flow outlook for '24. The first one is just free cash conversion back to 95% versus 80%. Is that mostly just working capital that will drive that improvement?

Kofi，我剛剛有兩個與 24 年現金流前景相關的問題。第一個是自由現金轉換回 95% 與 80%。這主要是推動這種改善的營運資金嗎？

Yes. That is the primary driver, and that was also the primary driver of the miss that we had this year relative to our long-term target. So challenge, obviously, the other side of the inventory reduction in the retail trade was unexpected inventory build as we went into the last 2 weeks of the year. So as we step into next year, supply chain environment is more stable, gives us the capacity and the ability, frankly, to have more visibility and manage our inventory levels lower. We continue to make progress on our overall core working capital on our pet business. So those things should help us drive a more significant provision of cash from working capital next year.

是的。這是主要驅動因素，也是我們今年未能實現長期目標的主要驅動因素。因此，顯然，零售業庫存減少的另一面挑戰是進入今年最後兩週時意外的庫存增加。因此，當我們進入明年時，供應鏈環境更加穩定，坦率地說，這使我們有能力提高可見性並降低庫存水平。我們在寵物業務的整體核心營運資本方面繼續取得進展。因此，這些事情應該有助於我們明年從營運資金中提供更多現金。

Okay. So the bulk of it is inventory, right? Is that kind of the way to look at it, the majority of the improvement?

好的。所以大部分都是庫存，對嗎？這是看待大部分改進的方式嗎？

Yes, year-over-year on a cash flow basis, that is a fair way to look at it.

是的，以現金流量為基礎逐年比較，這是一種公平的看待方式。

Okay. And then the second one is just -- I know you've given the interest rate guide -- the interest expense guidance, I'm sorry. And you called out having refinanced some debt at a higher rate. Kofi, is there any opportunity with like some of the shorter-term whether it's commercial paper or just shorter-term debt? Is there any possibility to just apply some free cash flow to kind of take down some of that short-term debt in order to kind of relieve a little bit more of the interest expense pressure?

好的。第二個是——我知道你已經給出了利率指導——利息支出指導，我很抱歉。你還聲稱已經以更高的利率為一些債務進行了再融資。科菲，無論是商業票據還是短期債務，是否有一些短期的機會？是否有可能僅利用一些自由現金流來減少部分短期債務，以減輕更多的利息支出壓力？

Yes. We do expect to be able to run with lower commercial paper balances. But I mean, candidly, commercial paper rates and long-term debt rates in the -- at least in the middle of the curve were somewhat adverted for periods of time as we looked at the Tier 2 market in which we issue commercial paper. So we actually could issue term debt more cheaply and did that here as we came out of the fourth quarter.

是的。我們確實希望能夠以較低的商業票據余額運行。但我的意思是，坦率地說，當我們研究我們發行商業票據的二級市場時，至少在曲線中間的商業票據利率和長期債務利率在一段時間內有所提及。因此，我們實際上可以更便宜地發行定期債務，並且在第四季度結束時就這樣做了。

Okay. But -- so it doesn't sound like there's a lot that you can do to chip away at that sort of the guide?

好的。但是——所以聽起來你可以做很多事情來削弱這種指南？

It's not an immediate arbitrage. I expect -- look, this will be an adjustment factor as we see some of our term debt roll off as long as we're in this higher interest rate environment, that will be a modest headwind. It is manageable, and we happen to have a fair amount of maturity concentration in this, call it, 2- to 3-quarter window that which is driving our outlook for next year.

這不是立即套利。我預計，這將是一個調整因素，因為只要我們處於這種較高的利率環境中，我們就會看到我們的一些定期債務會減少，這將是一個溫和的阻力。這是可以管理的，而且我們碰巧有相當多的成熟度集中在這個，稱之為 2 到 3 個季度的窗口，這推動了我們明年的前景。

Our next question is from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的克里斯·凱里。

So just a couple of quick follow-ups for me. So just number one, do you think that, I guess, inventory availability is impacting consumption that we can see in data at all, right? So on-shelf availability, is that becoming a factor with these inventory cuts? Or is it reasonable to assume that what we see coming through is kind of pure consumption?

所以我只需要進行一些快速跟進。那麼第一，我想，您是否認為庫存可用性正在影響我們在數據中可以看到的消費，對吧？那麼，貨架上的可用性是否會成為庫存削減的一個因素？或者假設我們看到的是純粹的消費是否合理？

The second question would be just around kind of a follow-up around pricing for fiscal '24. The press release said that most of the pricing in fiscal '24 would be carry over. Obviously, inflation will still be quite a bit above historical norms. So are you embedding any yet taken pricing into the fiscal '24 outlook is just overall thoughts on the potential to take incremental pricing not already in market?

第二個問題是關於 24 財年定價的後續行動。新聞稿稱，24 財年的大部分定價將結轉。顯然，通脹仍將遠高於歷史正常水平。那麼，您是否將任何尚未採取的定價納入 24 財年展望中，只是對市場上尚未採用增量定價的潛力的總體想法？

Yes. So on the first question, on-shelf availability is significantly higher today than it was a year ago across most of our categories. So again, everyone has gotten better. I think the supply situation has become more stable. So as result, retailers feel like they don't have to hold as much inventory to service the demand.

是的。因此，關於第一個問題，今天我們大多數類別的貨架供應量明顯高於一年前。如此一來，每個人都變得更好了。我認為供應形勢已經變得更加穩定。因此，零售商覺得他們不必持有那麼多庫存來滿足需求。

The other thing I would tell you is we've invested in digital capabilities so have the retailers. I can tell you their inventory systems are much more sophisticated today than they were a few years ago. So obviously, their goal is to keep the shelves full, but at the same time, hold as little inventory as possible. At this point, we don't see inventory as a hindrance to us being on the shelf or getting the displays when we find them. Again, I think they're just focusing on the working capital and trying to manage it as efficiently as they can.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，我們已經投資了數字能力，零售商也如此。我可以告訴你，他們現在的庫存系統比幾年前要復雜得多。顯然，他們的目標是保持貨架飽滿，但同時盡可能減少庫存。在這一點上，我們並不認為庫存會成為我們上架或找到商品時獲得展示的障礙。再說一次，我認為他們只是專注於營運資金並試圖盡可能有效地管理它。

Yes. And when it comes to pricing, we're not going to comment specifically on forward-looking pricing. Having said that, we did say that the majority is in the marketplace already. That is true. We operate in markets all over the world, some with different inflationary pressures than others. So it's not just -- it's not really just about the U.S. But we feel good about what we see right now with our pricing and the inflationary environment that we see, but we all know these things can change over time.

是的。在定價方面，我們不會具體評論前瞻性定價。話雖如此，我們確實說過大多數已經進入市場。那是真實的。我們在世界各地的市場開展業務，其中一些市場的通脹壓力與其他市場不同。所以這不僅僅是——這不僅僅是關於美國，我們對現在的定價和通脹環境感到滿意，但我們都知道這些事情會隨著時間的推移而改變。

And so we think we have most of what we need in place already, but there may be a category or two we need a little bit more than maybe a geography or two where we need a little bit more because the inflationary pressures are different.

因此，我們認為我們已經具備了大部分需要的東西，但可能有一兩個類別我們需要多一點，而不是一兩個類別我們需要多一點，因為通脹壓力不同。

Okay. One question just and then I'll be done. But Jeff, you've been talking for a number of quarters now about promotional levels and how promotions would remain rational. And you listed kind of a number of reasons why. I just wonder with supply chains coming back and you've already commented on the call today, but how do you think about the tools that you would have to reignite volume growth? So obviously, there's a concern about some normalizing of volume. Like what's in your -- what's in kind of -- what are the kind of arrows in the quiver, I guess, right? Could you -- is it more promotion? Is it more advertising? Is it more merchandising? Can you just talk to maybe how you think about potentially lifting volumes over in the next 12 months if we see any shifts in the consumer environment?

好的。只要問一個問題，我就完成了。但是傑夫，您已經談論了好幾個季度的促銷水平以及促銷如何保持理性。你列出了一些原因。我只是想知道供應鏈的恢復，你已經在今天的電話會議上發表了評論，但你如何看待重新點燃銷量增長所需的工具？顯然，人們對成交量正常化存在擔憂。就像你的箭袋裡有什麼——箭袋裡有什麼箭，我想，對吧？你能——這是更多的促銷嗎？是不是廣告多了？是不是更加推銷了？您能否談談如果我們看到消費環境發生任何變化，您對未來 12 個月內銷量可能會增加的看法？

Yes, sure. As I look at it, I mean, the promotional environment has been quite rational. And I suspect that it will be going forward. I haven't seen anything yet to lead me to believe otherwise. As we look at what's going to drive growth, I think it will be a number of factors. One I would lead with this new product innovation. Even though our new product innovation has led our categories each of the last 4 years, it's still below what we would have expected normally.

是的，當然。在我看來，我的意思是，促銷環境相當理性。我懷疑它會繼續發展。我還沒有看到任何東西讓我相信事實並非如此。當我們審視推動增長的因素時，我認為這將由許多因素組成。我將領導這一新產品創新。儘管我們的新產品創新在過去四年中每年都在我們的類別中處於領先地位，但它仍然低於我們通常的預期。

And the reason is not because we haven't had good innovation is because some retailers were reluctant to bring it in because their own supply chains were pressured, our own supply chains were pressured. And so as I look at the year ahead, I like our new product innovation network, we have to come. But I also think we're going to get better distribution on innovation we've had over the last couple of years where we didn't get full distribution even though it may have warranted given the quality of the innovation that we've had. And so I think that will be a driver.

原因並不是因為我們沒有好的創新，而是因為一些零售商不願意引入它，因為他們自己的供應鏈受到了壓力，我們自己的供應鏈也受到了壓力。因此，當我展望未來的一年時，我喜歡我們的新產品創新網絡，我們必須來。但我也認為，我們將在過去幾年中獲得更好的創新分配，儘管考慮到我們所擁有的創新質量，我們沒有得到充分的分配，但它可能是有保證的。所以我認為這將是一個驅動因素。

The same with distribution, and I look to our pet business, especially on our distribution levels of treats and wet because we haven't been able to supply the business. And so if you can't supply the business. That means that you're going to lack some distribution. You may have some distribution gaps. And so distribution growth across a couple of our key categories in North America Retail as well as Pet is certainly going to be an opportunity for us.

分銷也是如此，我關注我們的寵物業務，特別是我們的零食和濕貨的分銷水平，因為我們無法提供該業務。因此，如果您無法提供業務。這意味著您將缺少一些分發。您可能存在一些分配差距。因此，北美零售業和寵物業幾個關鍵類別的分銷增長對我們來說肯定是一個機會。

And then with promotional spending, I think it's going to be the quality of our merchandising, and we have very good tools to understand what the return on investment are so to our retailers. And so I don't know that it's going to be a significant increase in amount of merchandising. I think it's going to be, I would hope, and I would certainly anticipate an increase in the quality of the merchandising, which should be good growth drivers for our retail customers as well as for us.

然後，在促銷支出方面，我認為這將是我們的商品質量，我們有很好的工具來了解我們零售商的投資回報率。所以我不知道商品數量會大幅增加。我認為，我希望，而且我當然預計商品質量會有所提高，這對我們的零售客戶和我們來說都應該是良好的增長動力。

And because in our categories, they are really expandable consumption categories. And the more you have in your pantry, the more you tend to use. And so those are some things that I think will be the drivers, along with increased marketing, and our marketing has been very good. And we have a lot of tools to ascertain where the best marketing spend is going to be and we've been investing in our brands. We'll continue to invest in our brands, and that will certainly be a source of growth for us.

而且因為在我們的品類中，它們確實是可擴展的消費品類。你的食品儲藏室裡的東西越多，你就越傾向於使用。因此，我認為這些因素以及營銷的增加將成為驅動因素，而且我們的營銷非常好。我們有很多工具來確定最好的營銷支出將在哪裡，並且我們一直在投資於我們的品牌。我們將繼續投資於我們的品牌，這肯定會成為我們的增長源泉。

Okay. Malika, I think we'll wrap up the questions there. Maybe I'll turn it to Jeff to -- for some closing comments before we finish the call.

好的。 Malika，我想我們就到此結束問題。在我們結束通話之前，也許我會把它轉給傑夫，讓他做一些總結評論。

So I'll end this call where we started, which is to say, because we take a quick step back, we're really pleased with the year that, that's just happened and 10% sales growth, 8% operating profit growth. That's included -- that excludes a 3% headwind from divestitures as well as earnings per share growth that are double digits. As we look forward, our guidance is to be in line or exceeding our long-term growth algorithms on sales, operating profit, EPS and certainly on dividend increases. And so we are confident about the year ahead and that confidence is driven by our ability to navigate a number of environments these past 3 years. And will this next year look different from the last? Of course, it will. But we know that already, and we're confident that we have a team and brands and capabilities that will thrive in the year ahead. And so we look forward to keeping the conversation going.

因此，我將從我們開始的地方結束這次電話會議，也就是說，因為我們快速後退了一步，我們對剛剛發生的這一年以及 10% 的銷售增長和 8% 的營業利潤增長感到非常滿意。其中包括——不包括資產剝離帶來的 3% 的阻力以及兩位數的每股收益增長。展望未來，我們的指導是在銷售額、營業利潤、每股收益以及股息增長方面符合或超過我們的長期增長算法。因此，我們對未來一年充滿信心，而這種信心是由我們過去三年應對多種環境的能力所驅動的。明年會與去年有所不同嗎？當然會。但我們已經知道這一點，並且我們相信我們的團隊、品牌和能力將在未來一年蓬勃發展。因此，我們期待繼續對話。

All right. I think we'll wrap it there. Thanks, everyone, for the time and attention, and we're available throughout the day for follow-ups and we look forward to connecting again later on this year.

好的。我想我們會把它包裝在那裡。感謝大家的時間和關注，我們全天都可以進行後續跟進，我們期待著今年晚些時候再次聯繫。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines. Have a good day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。