通用磨坊 (GIS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

問答環節討論了公司 2024 財年第三季度的業績,重點關注影響業績的因素和前瞻性陳述。該公司在北美零售和寵物行業的競爭力有所提高。預計第四季度的銷售業績將與第三季相似,其中定價、SNAP 福利和貨架供應等因素都會發揮作用。

該公司對寵物產業(尤其是濕寵物食品)的成長和獲利能力感到鼓舞。他們對未來持謹慎樂觀態度,專注於執行策略和寵物產品和零食等潛在成長領域。儘管在某些類別和地區面臨挑戰,該公司仍在品牌收購和投資方面保持嚴格,以推動營收成長。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning. My name is Audra and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the General Mills Third Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

    早安.我叫奧德拉,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻,我謹歡迎大家參加通用磨坊第三季和 2024 財年財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 (操作員指示) 現在,我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁兼財務主管傑夫·西蒙 (Jeff Siemon)。請繼續。

  • Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

    Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Audra and good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning for our Q&A session on our third quarter fiscal 2024 results. I hope everyone had time to review the press release, listen to our prepared remarks and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website.

    謝謝你,奧德拉,祝大家早安。感謝您今天早上參加我們關於 2024 財年第三季業績的問答環節。我希望每個人都有時間閱讀新聞稿,聽取我們準備好的發言並查看我們今天早上在投資者關係網站上提供的簡報資料。

  • It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call. I'm here this morning with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; and Kofi Bruce, our CFO.

    值得注意的是,在我們的問答環節中,我們可能會根據管理階層目前的觀點和假設做出前瞻性陳述。請參閱今天上午的新聞稿,以了解可能影響前瞻性陳述的因素以及非公認會計準則資訊的調節,這些資訊可能會在今天的電話會議上討論。今天早上我和我們的董事長兼執行長傑夫哈梅寧 (Jeff Harmening) 一起來到這裡。和我們的財務長科菲·布魯斯 (Kofi Bruce)。

  • Let's go ahead and get right to the first question. So Audra, if you can get us started, please.

    讓我們繼續討論第一個問題。奧德拉(Audra),請讓我們開始吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) We'll go first to Andrew Lazar at Barclays.

    (操作員指示)我們首先去找巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Jeff, in the prepared remarks, you mentioned the expected impact in the fourth quarter in terms of reported results from the lapping of the trade expense benefit last year. If we put that aside, which sort of seems like more mechanical, how do we think about momentum for the company in the fourth quarter in terms of what you'd expect in terms of in-market performance and consumption, right, as the company looks to really build momentum going into fiscal '25. Would you expect sort of an acceleration from what we saw in fiscal 3Q or something similar to 4Q.

    傑夫,在準備好的發言中,您提到了去年貿易費用收益的報告結果對第四季度的預期影響。如果我們把這一點放在一邊,哪種看起來更機械,我們如何看待公司第四季度的勢頭,就市場表現和消費方面的預期而言,對吧,作為公司看起來真正會在25 財年積聚動力。您是否期望我們在第三財季或與第四財季類似的情況下看到某種加速?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. And I would agree with you, the timing of the trade phasing is more mechanical in nature. So I think you're right about that. More broadly, what I would say is, I mean, we're encouraged by the third quarter results and the improvement that we saw in underlying performance, particularly the level of competitiveness in North America retail and the improvement we saw in Pet. And as we said -- as I said, kind of going into the quarter, in the back half of the year, we thought there'd be 3 external factors, which would play a role in our performance.

    是的。我同意你的觀點,交易分階段的時機本質上比較機械化。所以我認為你是對的。更廣泛地說,我想說的是,我們對第三季的業績和我們在基本業績方面看到的改善感到鼓舞,特別是北美零售業的競爭力水平和我們在寵物方面看到的改善。正如我們所說,正如我所說,進入本季、下半年,我們認為有 3 個外部因素會對我們的業績產生影響。

  • The first was lapping of pricing of last year. We thought we'd see a benefit from doing that and we're seeing that benefit in the third quarter. The second is that lapping the reduction in SNAP benefits from a year ago, which we said we'd probably start to see in March and April and there's a little bit of evidence to suggest that we're starting to lap that and see a little bit of benefit. And then the third would be lapping on-shelf availability. And so those are the 3 factors. We've seen the first play out a little bit in our third quarter results. So we are encouraged.

    首先是去年定價的研磨。我們認為這樣做會帶來好處,我們在第三季看到了這種好處。第二個是考慮到一年前 SNAP 福利的減少,我們說我們可能會在 3 月和 4 月開始看到這一點,並且有一些證據表明我們開始考慮這一點並看到一些好處。第三個因素是貨架上的可用性。這就是三個因素。我們在第三季的業績中已經看到了第一階段的成果。所以我們受到鼓舞。

  • I would say is that outside of the trade phasing kind of mechanical issue you referenced, I mean, we're assuming that our fourth quarter in terms of sales would look about like the third quarter in terms of year-over-year performance. And it's hard to say exactly because we have inventory movements and things like that. But our expectation would be that it would look pretty similar to the third quarter. And -- but I would also say that there are a lot of moving pieces, right, in the fourth quarter and we'll just have to see how those moving pieces play out in terms of the external environment.

    我想說的是,除了您提到的貿易分階段類型的機械問題之外,我的意思是,我們假設我們第四季度的銷售業績與第三季度的同比業績大致相同。很難準確地說,因為我們有庫存變動之類的事情。但我們的預期是,它看起來與第三季非常相似。而且 - 但我也想說,第四季度有很多變化,我們只需要看看這些變化在外部環境中如何發揮作用。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Got it. Got it. And then obviously, Pet was a significant source of upside to organic sales versus at least sort of street expectations. What really drove the outperformance? And I guess more importantly, do you see this as sustainable. I didn't know if you had like an all-channel consumption number for Pet this quarter and whether you see that sort of continuing to improve sequentially from here? Or should we not get ahead of ourselves based on what we saw in 3Q?

    知道了。知道了。顯然,與街頭預期相比,寵物是有機銷售成長的重要來源。真正推動業績優異的因素是什麼?我想更重要的是,你認為這是可持續的嗎?我不知道您是否喜歡本季寵物的全通路消費數據,以及您是否認為這種情況會繼續持續改善?或者說,我們不應該根據第三季的情況而超前嗎?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Well, the third quarter Pet results were pretty good. I mean, which is to say that they're better than maybe even we expected. The movement was a little bit better and paced by Life Protection Formula, which was up but also (inaudible) dry business, which also showed improvement as well, as well as an improvement in our wet business. We still have a lot of work to do in pet and we know that. And particularly with regard to Wilderness and specific channels, the -- what I feel good about the third quarter is what it shows that the areas we've put emphasis on, we've seen growth in and certainly improvement, which tells us that Blue Buffalo equity is good and that we're working on the right things.

    是的。嗯,第三季 Pet 的成績還不錯。我的意思是,這就是說它們甚至比我們預期的還要好。這項運動稍好一些,並以生命保護配方為節奏,該配方有所上升,但(聽不清楚)乾業務也有所改善,這也表明我們的濕業務有所改善。我們知道,在寵物方面我們還有很多工作要做。特別是在《荒野》和特定管道方面,我對第三季度感到滿意的是,它表明我們重點關注的領域,我們已經看到了增長,而且肯定有所改善,這告訴我們,藍色布法羅股權很好,我們正在做正確的事。

  • And on Wilderness, we kind of know what the -- we know what the challenges are and we know what to do to get it back on track but it's not going to take a month or two to get that back where you want. It's going to take a couple of quarters. So I'm not going to get ahead of myself. I don't think it's time to declare a victory on pet, even if we're encouraged that the things that we have done, have seen them work the way we wanted to. I would note the other thing on pet is that we drove some good profitability increases in the quarter.

    在《荒野》中,我們知道挑戰是什麼,我們知道該怎麼做才能讓它回到正軌,但不需要一兩個月就能讓它回到你想要的地方。這需要幾個季度的時間。所以我不會超越自己。我認為現在還不是宣布寵物取得勝利的時候,即使我們為我們所做的事情感到鼓舞,並看到它們按照我們想要的方式發揮作用。我要指出的是,關於寵物的另一件事是,我們在本季實現了一些良好的獲利成長。

  • Our productivity levels are quite high in pet. And we had a lot of disruption costs during the pandemic that we've had to get out. And we're in the process of doing that and you see that in the results in the third quarter. And so we're really pleased by that. We're kind of getting our feet under us from an executional standpoint. So while I'm encouraged by the third quarter, I think it's probably a little bit early to say kind of what's going to happen from here on out but we do see some green shoots in pet.

    我們的寵物生產力水準相當高。在大流行期間,我們承受了很多中斷成本,但我們必須擺脫這些成本。我們正在這樣做,你可以在第三季的結果中看到這一點。我們對此感到非常高興。從執行的角度來看,我們已經站穩了。因此,雖然我對第三季度感到鼓舞,但我認為現在說從現在開始會發生什麼可能有點早,但我們確實看到了寵物的一些萌芽。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll move next to Ken Goldman at JPMorgan.

    我們將接任摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼 (Ken Goldman)。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • With the understanding, it's too soon to quantify or really even discuss next fiscal year, I just wanted to clarify something at first and that's, at CAGNY, I believe you said you were hoping for a year, even though it's too early, that was relatively benign. And with the understanding, again, no numbers at this time, I assume, what does relatively benign mean in the context of your longer-term algo? And I'm asking because you have easy comparisons in pet, you're hopefully still performing well in market. You said previously, you'll have HMM savings above 4% or you hope to. Inflation should be disinflationary for lack of a better word, you're going to get help from lapping SNAP. I could reel off a lot of potential positives into next year but that you weren't yet ready to kind of say it would be on algo. And I'm just trying to get a better sense of a month later than CAGNY you're in a little bit of better position to be somewhat more specific about how to think about maybe some of the puts and takes for next year.

    據了解,現在量化甚至討論下一個財年還為時過早,我只是想先澄清一些事情,那就是,在CAGNY,我相信你說過你希望有一年的時間,儘管現在還為時過早,那是相對良性。再次,根據理解,目前沒有數字,我想,在您的長期演算法的背景下,相對良性意味著什麼?我問這個問題是因為你在寵物方面很容易進行比較,希望你在市場上仍然表現良好。您之前說過,您將獲得 HMM 4% 以上的節省,或者您希望如此。通貨膨脹應該是通貨緊縮,因為沒有更好的詞彙來形容,你將從 SNAP 中得到幫助。我可以在明年列舉許多潛在的正面因素,但你還沒準備好說這將是在演算法上。我只是想比 CAGNY 更了解一個月後的情況,您可以更具體地了解如何考慮明年的一些看跌期權和拿單。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, Ken, yes, you reeled off a lot of things we said at CAGNY, so pleased to hear hat. And you're right, when I say the benign environment, what we hope to be, I guess it would -- with regard to a couple of things, hopefully, with regard to inflation, we still see an inflationary environment. It's 4% now. It was double digits last year. And long term, it's been kind of 2% to 3%. And so hopefully, we're headed in the long-term direction as we look at next year, we'll certainly give guidance in June on what that exactly looks like. But to the extent we can have a more benign inflationary environment and a supply chain environment, we don't see the disruptions we've seen combined with good productivity. That's a good start.

    嗯,肯,是的,你滔滔不絕地講述了我們在 CAGNY 說過的很多話,很高興聽到這個消息。你是對的,當我說我們希望的良性環境時,我想它會——在某些事情上,希望在通膨方面,我們仍然看到通膨環境。現在是4%。去年這個數字是兩位數。從長期來看,這個比例大約是 2% 到 3%。因此,希望我們明年能夠朝著長期方向前進,我們肯定會在 6 月就具體情況給予指導。但就我們可以擁有更良性的通膨環境和供應鏈環境而言,我們並沒有看到我們所看到的破壞與良好的生產力結合。這是一個好的開始。

  • And I think then the question for us, which we still really haven't answered yet, even a month after CAGNY, is how exactly are some of these external factors going to play out in the fourth quarter as we lap SNAP and as we lap on-shelf availability of private label and some of our smaller competitors, those things are a little bit, I would say, too early to call. But I will say the third quarter played out largely as we expected and the benefits of lapping pricing played out as we expected. And so it may be completely unsatisfactory but I'm not going to comment on F'25 at this time other than to reiterate productivity is good. We've seen inflation slowing, although there still is inflation and we'll know a lot more about what to expect out of the top line performance in a couple of months.

    我認為,對我們來說,即使在 CAGNY 一個月後,我們仍然沒有真正回答的問題是,當我們跑完 SNAP 和跑完 SNAP 時,這些外部因素在第四季度究竟會如何發揮作用?貨架上的自有品牌和我們的一些較小的競爭對手,我想說,這些事情現在下結論還為時過早。但我想說的是,第三季的表現基本上符合我們的預期,重疊定價的好處也如我們預期的那樣發揮了作用。因此,它可能完全不能令人滿意,但我現在不會對 F'25 發表評論,只是重申生產力很好。我們已經看到通貨膨脹正在放緩,儘管通貨膨脹仍然存在,而且我們將更多地了解幾個月後的營收表現。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • I knew going in, I'd be partially unsatisfied but that was helpful. And then quick follow-up. You mentioned that -- and just now, again, you mentioned SNAP reductions coming in the U.S. In a number of states, a decent chunk of those reductions have already been lapped. I don't know if your data would show this but I don't mean to put you on the spot but is it fair to say that you've seen improvements in these states? Or is it just a little more complicated than that? I'm just trying to get a sense because so much of what you're talking about depends on a little bit of that macro and how consumers react.

    我知道進去後我會有些不滿意,但這很有幫助。然後快速跟進。您剛才提到了這一點,剛才您又提到了美國即將實施的 SNAP 削減措施。在許多州,這些削減措施中的很大一部分已經得到落實。我不知道你的數據是否會顯示這一點,但我並不是想讓你陷入困境,但可以公平地說你已經看到了這些州的進步嗎?或者只是比這更複雜一點?我只是想了解一下,因為你所說的大部分內容都取決於宏觀因素以及消費者的反應。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. The answer to your -- the short answer is yes and yes and I'll explain. I mean, the first yes is that, yes, we have seen a small benefit in the states where we've lapped the SNAP benefits. And so we have seen that. I think it's important to remember a couple of things. One, that will take a while to play out as not if there's 1 event and it just kind of -- it happens and there's a cliff change. The other is that, that benefit is not huge. I mean there is some benefit but it's just not a -- it's not a huge benefit.

    是的。簡短的回答是肯定的,我會解釋一下。我的意思是,第一個肯定的是,是的,我們在享受 SNAP 福利的州看到了一點小小的好處。我們已經看到了這一點。我認為記住幾件事很重要。第一,這需要一段時間才能發揮出來,因為如果有一個事件發生,並且它只是發生了,並且發生了懸崖變化。另一個是,這個好處並不大。我的意思是有一些好處,但它不是——這不是一個巨大的好處。

  • The other yes, as you said, there's some complicating factors. And the answer is, of course. I mean, because we're lapping pricing and pretty soon, we'll have on-shelf availability changes. So there's just a lot of factors in the environment that make it a little bit noisier than a perfect correlation but the short answer is, we're seeing a little bit of benefit in the places where we've lapped SNAP so far.

    另一個是,正如你所說,存在一些複雜的因素。答案是當然。我的意思是,因為我們正在調整定價,很快我們就會對貨架上的供應情況進行更改。因此,環境中有很多因素導致其比完美相關性更嘈雜,但簡短的答案是,我們在迄今為止採用 SNAP 的地方看到了一些好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll move next to Max Gumport at BNP Paribas.

    我們將搬到法國巴黎銀行的 Max Gumport 旁邊。

  • Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

    Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

  • First on Pet, it looks like the action plan you discussed for the pet segment last quarter are starting to bear fruit. So on wet pet food specifically, I think you inflected from a minus double-digit decline in 2Q to growth in 3Q. I was hoping you could talk about any early signs of success you might be seeing with these more value-oriented multipacks and how they may or may not inform your view of what the 24-pound bag could be doing for Wilderness over the coming quarters in pet retail.

    首先在寵物方面,您上季度討論的寵物領域的行動計劃似乎開始取得成果。因此,特別是在寵物濕食方面,我認為您從第二季的負兩位數下降轉變為第三季的成長。我希望您能談談您可能會在這些更有價值的合裝包中看到的任何早期成功跡象,以及它們如何可能或可能不會讓您了解24 磅重的包在未來幾個季度可為Wilderness 帶來什麼。寵物零售。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I would say on the wet pet food side, we certainly have seen improvements, whether it's all weighted back to growth or not. I mean I'm not sure it's all the way back to growth but it's -- but we certainly have seen improvements. And importantly, we've seen the improvements in that in the wet pet food business in the places where we got our price points back in line with what we thought would be beneficial. So that's good.

    是的,我想說,在濕寵物食品方面,我們確實看到了進步,無論是否全部恢復成長。我的意思是,我不確定它是否會一路恢復成長,但確實如此,但我們確實看到了進步。重要的是,我們已經看到濕寵物食品業務的改善,我們的價格點回到了我們認為有利的水平。所以這樣很好。

  • We haven't gotten them back everywhere yet. So that's still a work in process and I think that will play itself out in the fourth quarter. But we are encouraged that the actions that we took, that we thought would have a benefit are having the benefit that we thought. And so something like, you're barely, be there. But that is -- so that feels good. How that relates to 24-pound bags of Wilderness? I just -- I guess I would say on Wilderness, I think it's going to be more complicated than just that. I mean we need to do, we need to get back to advertising Wilderness with messages kind of resonate to consumers. We have some ideas on that. We're working on that now. That will be important.

    我們還沒有把它們找回來。因此,這仍然是一項正在進行的工作,我認為這將在第四季度發揮作用。但我們感到鼓舞的是,我們採取的、我們認為會帶來好處的行動正在產生我們認為的好處。所以就像,你幾乎不在那裡。但那就是——所以感覺很好。這與 24 磅重的 Wilderness 袋有何關係?我只是——我想我會說《荒野》,我認為它會比這更複雜。我的意思是我們需要做的,我們需要回到荒野廣告中,傳達一些能引起消費者共鳴的訊息。我們對此有一些想法。我們現在正在努力。這很重要。

  • And then working with the pet specialty channel, in particular, where Wilderness has had a challenge. And they want to work with us and we want to work with them. And so that's positive. But we have some more work to do in that channel. And then there's some SKUs that we need to bring back. So I wish Wilderness were as simple as getting 24-pound bags in but I think it's going to be a little bit more complicated than that and take a little bit longer. But we are encouraged by the fact that what we have diagnosed on wet pet food and then the actions we have taken have largely played out the way that we thought.

    然後與寵物專業頻道合作,尤其是《Wilderness》面臨挑戰的頻道。他們想與我們合作,我們也想與他們合作。所以這是積極的。但我們在該管道中還有更多工作要做。然後我們需要帶回一些 SKU。所以我希望荒野能像搬 24 磅重的袋子一樣簡單,但我認為這會比這更複雜一點,而且需要更長的時間。但令我們感到鼓舞的是,我們對濕寵物食品的診斷以及我們所採取的行動基本上按照我們的想法發揮了作用。

  • Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

    Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

  • Max, this is Jeff Siemon. I'll just add a point on the -- you mentioned net sales on wet food were up and that we didn't include that in our prepared remarks. That was true. They're up modestly. There's some inventory differences as you look at the individual subline. So retail sales on wet food are still down. They're moving -- they're better but they're -- but we still have some work to do to get them all the way to (inaudible). But you were right that, that from a net sales standpoint, they were up slightly in the quarter.

    麥克斯,這是傑夫·西蒙。我只想補充一點——您提到濕食品的淨銷售額上升了,但我們沒有將其納入我們準備好的評論中。確實如此。他們謙虛地起來了。當您查看各個子系列時,會發現一些庫存差異。因此濕食品的零售額仍然下降。他們正在移動——他們更好了,但他們——但我們仍然有一些工作要做,讓他們一路走來(聽不清楚)。但你是對的,從淨銷售額的角度來看,他們在本季略有上升。

  • Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

    Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

  • Yes. I think I saw that in the slide deck. And then one follow-up would be, just given the clean balance sheet and the continued emphasis on portfolio reshaping, I think it's safe to assume you're actively looking at acquisitions. I think past commentary would suggest you're focused on snacking and pet food categories and also businesses that play in your 8 core geographies. That said, I'm just curious given some of the recent industry news, how you might view ice cream, especially knowing that it is one of your global platforms.

    是的。我想我在幻燈片中看到了這一點。然後,考慮到乾淨的資產負債表和對投資組合重塑的持續重視,我認為可以肯定地假設您正在積極考慮收購。我認為過去的評論會建議您專注於零食和寵物食品類別以及在您的 8 個核心地區開展業務的業務。也就是說,我只是好奇最近的一些行業新聞,你會如何看待冰淇淋,特別是知道它是你的全球平台之一。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure. I appreciate the question. Yes, on portfolio shaping, we really haven't changed our approach to portfolio shaping. We're pleased with what we have done and the 20% change we've made so far. We also know there's more to do, both in terms of acquisitions and divestiture to get back to the growth levels that we're looking for. But we've been looking for a while. And it's important to note that we have been and we'll be very disciplined when it comes to looking at acquisitions. And we're only going to do things that make sense for the shareholders, not just to chase a growth goal. And we remain disciplined over that over the years.

    當然。我很欣賞這個問題。是的,在投資組合塑造方面,我們確實沒有改變我們的投資組合塑造方法。我們對我們所做的事情以及迄今為止所做的 20% 的改變感到滿意。我們也知道,在收購和剝離方面還有更多工作要做,才能恢復到我們所尋求的成長水準。但我們已經找了一段時間了。值得注意的是,在考慮收購方面,我們過去和未來都會非常嚴格。我們只會做對股東有意義的事情,而不僅僅是追求成長目標。多年來我們在這方面一直保持著紀律。

  • And the places that we're looking at I think will be growth accretive and certainly, Pet is a place that we like. You mentioned snacks, there some meal categories we like as well. And so there are a number of places where we could go, that would be either in categories we're in or tangential to categories and geographies where we feel like we've got some competitive advantages. I'm not going to talk about the recent announcements in ice cream specifically. I'll leave that to our competitors and I don't talk about M&A and particular deals.

    我認為我們正在關注的地方將會促進成長,當然,寵物是我們喜歡的地方。你提到了零食,我們也喜歡一些餐點類別。因此,我們可以去很多地方,要么是我們所處的類別,要么是與我們認為擁有一些競爭優勢的類別和地區無關的地方。我不會專門談論最近在冰淇淋方面的公告。我將把這個問題留給我們的競爭對手,我不會談論併購和特定交易。

  • We like our ice cream business. I mean we -- Häagen-Dazs is a great brand. And it's a super premium brand and it's growing nicely. It's good in Europe. It's really good in Asia. And so we -- it's 1 of our 5 global platforms. So we obviously like the category but particularly, we like Häagen-Dazs. And that is a super premium brand, is playing in growth spaces and we feel very good about that brand.

    我們喜歡我們的冰淇淋業務。我的意思是我們——哈根達斯是一個偉大的品牌。這是一個超級優質品牌,而且發展勢頭良好。在歐洲就很好了這在亞洲確實很好。所以我們——它是我們 5 個全球平台之一。所以我們顯然喜歡這個類別,但特別喜歡哈根達斯。這是一個超級優質品牌,正在成長空間中發揮作用,我們對該品牌感覺非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next, we'll go to Chris Carey at Wells Fargo.

    接下來,我們將拜訪富國銀行的克里斯凱裡。

  • Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

    Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

  • So just 1 follow-up and another question. Jeff, you mentioned in response to Andrew's question that fiscal Q4 revenues should look similar to Q3. Were you referring to the consumption or actual organic sales growth in the quarter?

    所以只有 1 個後續行動和另一個問題。傑夫,您在回答安德魯的問題時提到,第四季的財政收入應該與第三季相似。您指的是本季的消費成長還是實際有機銷售成長?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • I was referring to the consumption growth because as we look at it because of the timing of some of our expense phasing, there will probably be about a 3-point headwind on what we report. What I was referring to was the consumption, which is really the most important piece, the others, not that it's not important but it is an accounting catch up and would be kind of mechanical in nature, as Andrew suggested. So what I was referring to was the sales out, if you will.

    我指的是消費成長,因為當我們考慮到我們的一些支出分階段的時間安排時,我們的報告可能會出現大約 3 個百分點的阻力。我指的是消費,這確實是最重要的部分,其他部分並不是說它不重要,而是它是一個會計趕上的部分,並且本質上是一種機械,正如安德魯所建議的那樣。如果你願意的話,我指的是銷量。

  • Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

    Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Yes. Perfect. Okay. That's what I thought. And Kofi, just on -- clearly, sales were better than expected. Gross margins, I think, were a bit light relative to Street expectations, namely given positive pricing, easing inflation, strong productivity. Can you just expand a bit on maybe some of the key factors in the quarter that offset some of those positives? I think inventory work down, the volume deleverage relative to the year ago, year ago growth. Just any context on those items and how durable they might be into your Q4 and potentially a bit more medium term.

    是的。完美的。好的。我也這麼想。科菲,顯然,銷量好於預期。我認為,毛利率相對於華爾街的預期來說有點低,即考慮到積極的定價、緩解的通膨和強勁的生產力。您能否詳細介紹本季抵銷其中一些正面因素的一些關鍵因素?我認為庫存工作下降,成交量去槓桿化,相對於去年同期,去年同期有所成長。只是關於這些項目的任何背景,以及它們在第四季度和中期可能有多耐用。

  • Kofi A. Bruce - CFO and Interim Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

    Kofi A. Bruce - CFO and Interim Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

  • Yes, sure. I appreciate the question. And I think you've got the plot on the key drivers. The only thing I think would be helpful to add just to give you some additional perspective is that the inventory absorption which was, frankly, one of the side benefits of supply chain stabilization as we've been able to take down our levels of inventory recurring. And while that was a benefit to working capital and cash flow, it was about a 70-basis point headwind on gross margin, which I think would probably close most of the gap that you're referring to.

    是的,當然。我很欣賞這個問題。我認為您已經了解了關鍵驅動因素。我認為唯一有幫助的補充只是為了給您一些額外的視角,坦白說,庫存吸收是供應鏈穩定的附帶好處之一,因為我們已經能夠降低庫存經常性水平。雖然這對營運資本和現金流有好處,但毛利率卻下降了約 70 個基點,我認為這可能會縮小你所指的大部分差距。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next is Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

    接下來是傑弗里斯的羅布·迪克森。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. So this might be just kind of a broader question. I know within our, I guess, kind of calling out a little bit more pressure, let's say, in meals and baking and snacks. And maybe there's a little bit more strength in other areas. So I'm just kind of curious, like, broadly speaking, right now that we've kind of gone through what we would all consider fairly material pricing phase, have you seen any kind of like general shifts, let's say, in this category consumption, like consumers seem to be kind of consuming more -- a little bit more here than they used to relative to other areas. I'm just trying to kind of consider any types of shifts in kind of the value proposition of some of your brands and also just the category positioning.

    偉大的。所以這可能只是一個更廣泛的問題。我想,我知道我們在飲食、烘焙和零食方面會承受更多的壓力。也許在其他領域還有更多的實力。所以我只是有點好奇,從廣義上講,現在我們已經經歷了我們都認為相當重要的定價階段,你是否看到過任何類似的總體轉變,比如說,在這個類別中消費,就像消費者似乎比其他地區消費更多——這裡比以前多一點。我只是想考慮一些品牌的價值主張以及品類定位方面的任何類型的轉變。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, I'll start with -- let me start in a little bit different place and I'll work my way back maybe to your question. I would say one of the shifts we've seen since the beginning of the pandemic is more food consumption at home. And so food consumption at home is a couple of points higher than it was going into the pandemic. So roughly about 86% of food is served at home. And the reason for that is because foodservice at home is such a great value and it's about 4x less expensive to eat at home than it is to eat out in a restaurant on average. And so as Americans have felt the challenges with inflation, part of the way they deal with the value is that they eat food at home rather than out and obviously, we were a great source of value when it comes to that.

    是的,我將從——讓我從一個稍微不同的地方開始,然後我可能會回到你的問題。我想說,自大流行開始以來我們看到的變化之一是家庭食品消費增加。因此,家庭食品消費量比疫情爆發前高出幾個百分點。因此,大約 86% 的食物是在家中提供的。原因是因為家庭餐飲服務非常有價值,平均在家吃飯比在外面餐廳吃飯便宜 4 倍。因此,當美國人感受到通貨膨脹的挑戰時,他們處理價值的部分方式是他們在家吃食物而不是在外面,顯然,在這方面,我們是價值的重要來源。

  • That's actually probably one of the biggest shift. Interestingly, private label shares are about the same now as where they were before the pandemic. In the categories that we're in, private label is about 10% of the category. In fact, they're down 10 basis points from when the pandemic began and overall food and beverage is about 19 points. And so we haven't actually seen a big shift when it comes to value there. When it comes to specific categories, one of the things I'm most pleased with our performance over the last few years is our ability to hold our growth share in half of our categories over that time. And so -- that so is broad based. And we've seen some big gains in our business like Pillsbury refrigerated dough, which has done quite well in meals and baking over time.

    這實際上可能是最大的轉變之一。有趣的是,自有品牌的股價現在與疫情大流行之前大致相同。在我們所處的品類中,自有品牌約佔該品類的 10%。事實上,它們比疫情開始時下降了 10 個基點,整體食品和飲料下降了約 19 個基點。因此,我們實際上並沒有看到價值方面的重大轉變。就特定類別而言,我對過去幾年的表現最滿意的事情之一是我們能夠在這段時間內保持一半類別的成長份額。所以——這是有廣泛的基礎。我們已經看到我們的業務取得了一些重大進展,例如 Pillsbury 冷藏麵團,隨著時間的推移,它在飲食和烘焙方面表現相當出色。

  • The same with fruit snacks. Both of those businesses are up 60% over the last few years. And we've consistently gained market share in those businesses. Obviously, we haven't in Pillsbury this year because private label is getting back on shelf but over the course of time, so we feel really good about that. We've had some struggles in bars, as you well know. But I can say one of the things I'm pleased with as we look at our business now, Nature Valley is back to growing share and it was even before one of our competitors had a big recall. So it's not a recall induced kind of activity.

    水果零食也一樣。這兩項業務在過去幾年中都成長了 60%。我們在這些業務中不斷獲得市場份額。顯然,我們今年沒有在皮爾斯伯里,因為自有品牌正在重新上架,但隨著時間的推移,所以我們對此感覺非常好。正如你所知,我們在酒吧遇到過一些困難。但我可以說,當我們審視我們現在的業務時,我感到高興的一件事是,自然谷的市場份額又恢復增長,甚至在我們的競爭對手之一進行大規模召回之前就已經出現了。所以這不是一種回憶引起的活動。

  • We've had some good new product innovation in Nature Valley. Our marketing is working in Nature Valley. I think we shared some of that at CAGNY. And so that's one category where we had struggled, where we feel like we're getting a little bit of momentum. And then on yogurt too, it's an area where we have struggled as well. But we have done well. We've got Yoplait protein out there right now, which is off to a nice start. And so -- but broadly speaking, I would say we haven't seen huge changes category by category in consumption.

    我們在自然谷有一些很好的新產品創新。我們的行銷工作在自然谷進行。我想我們在 CAGNY 分享了其中的一些內容。因此,這是我們一直在苦苦掙扎的一個類別,我們感覺我們正在獲得一點動力。在優格方面,這也是我們一直在努力的領域。但我們已經做得很好了。我們現在已經推出了優諾蛋白,這是一個好的開始。所以,但從廣義上講,我想說我們還沒有看到消費類別的巨大變化。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • All right. Fair enough. And then just quickly, you called out in the prepared remarks just a little bit of pressure maybe from the consumer in China and also Brazil. Maybe just kind of give us the quick kind of State of the Union, what you're seeing in both countries and that's all.

    好的。很公平。然後很快,您在準備好的演講中指出,可能來自中國和巴西消費者的一點壓力。也許只是簡單地向我們介紹國情咨文,以及您在這兩個國家所看到的情況,僅此而已。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, sure. In China, the biggest factor in our -- and we did say that, the biggest factor in our China business, I think it's important to note, is in our Wanchai Ferry frozen dumplings, where a year ago, Chinese consumers were kind of on lockdown. And so there's a lot of at-home consumption. So we're lapping that. And so the comparisons are very, very difficult. And that's the biggest driver of our challenges in China, if you will.

    是的,當然。 In China, the biggest factor in our -- and we did say that, the biggest factor in our China business, I think it's important to note, is in our Wanchai Ferry frozen dumplings, where a year ago, Chinese consumers were kind of on封鎖.因此,有大量的家庭消費。所以我們正在研磨它。所以比較是非常非常困難的。如果你願意的話,這就是我們在中國面臨的挑戰的最大動力。

  • The other driver though is that we have had -- the store traffic in China is down a little bit from where it had been before. And I think that's probably a function of the Chinese consumer feeling the pinch of the economy that has slowed down over the past year. And so -- but the bigger driver is actually the Wanchai Ferry frozen dumplings. And in Brazil, it's kind of similar to the U.S., we're at the point now where we're lapping pricing from a year ago. And our hope is, we start to see the Brazilian -- our Brazilian business start to stabilize here over the coming quarter or two. That's been the big challenge. They've seen huge commodity price increases in Brazil. And so our input costs have gone up quite a bit in Brazil and we're lapping those now in Brazil kind as we are here in the U.S. And my hope is that as we head into our fourth quarter that we start to see our comparisons kind of ease a little bit.

    另一個驅動因素是我們已經經歷過的——中國的商店客流量比以前略有下降。我認為這可能是中國消費者感受到過去一年經濟放緩的壓力的結果。所以——但更大的推動力實際上是灣仔碼頭的速凍餃子。在巴西,情況與美國類似,我們現在的定價與一年前持平。我們的希望是,我們開始看到巴西業務在未來一、兩個季度開始穩定下來。這是一個巨大的挑戰。他們看到巴西的商品價格大幅上漲。因此,我們在巴西的投入成本已經上升了很多,我們現在在巴西的投入成本與我們在美國的投入成本差不多。我希望,當我們進入第四季度時,我們開始看到我們的比較情況輕鬆一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll move next to Robert Moskow at TD Cowen.

    我們將接替 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

  • Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Associate

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Associate

  • This is Jacob Aiken-Phillips, on for Rob. Two quick ones. So I understand the trade timing 3% impact this year in 4Q. But last 4Q, you talked a lot about inventory reduction headwinds and you said about 3% then. So did you ship ahead in 3Q? Or is there some other factors that we're missing?

    我是雅各布·艾肯-菲利普斯(Jacob Aiken-Phillips),代表羅布(Rob)。兩個快的。所以我理解今年第四季交易時間 3% 的影響。但去年第四季度,您多次談到了庫存減少的不利因素,當時您提到了 3% 左右。那麼你在第三季提前出貨了嗎?或者還有其他一些我們遺漏的因素嗎?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, again, let me answer that to the best of my ability. But if I didn't get the question exactly right, ask it again and that -- because I'm not trying to avoid it. I would say in the third quarter, we had built inventory a year ago. And this year was pretty benign, I would say. Our -- if you look at our Nielsen data in North America retail, you see a 2-point difference. Some of that is due to the fact of unmeasured channels, we're growing faster than measured channels and only the balance of it is inventory growth. So our inventory is in a good position as we head out of the third quarter.

    是的,再次讓我盡我所能回答這個問題。但如果我沒有完全正確地回答問題,請再問一次——因為我並不想迴避它。我想說,在第三季度,我們一年前就建立了庫存。我想說,今年的情況相當溫和。如果您查看我們的尼爾森北美零售數據,您會發現 2 個百分點的差異。其中部分原因是由於未衡量的管道,我們的成長速度快於可衡量的管道,只有庫存成長才是平衡的。因此,隨著第三季的結束,我們的庫存狀況良好。

  • And as we look at the fourth quarter, it's tough to say what's going to happen. You're right, last year, we bled inventory, several points worth of inventory in the fourth quarter last year. And so you may ask, well, does that mean you're going to build it this year or not? The answer is, I'm not really sure. It's really difficult to predict inventory changes. What I would say is that we feel like we're in a good place as we end the third quarter with our retail customers, whether that's in North America retail or whether that's in Pet. We don't have too much inventory but I think we have enough.

    當我們展望第四季時,很難說會發生什麼。你是對的,去年,我們消耗了庫存,去年第四季的庫存相當於幾個點。所以你可能會問,這是否意味著你今年會建造它?答案是,我不太確定。預測庫存變化確實很困難。我想說的是,在第三季結束時,我們感覺我們與零售客戶處於一個良好的位置,無論是在北美零售還是在寵物領域。我們沒有太多庫存,但我認為我們已經足夠了。

  • And so what to -- we're not expecting any change in the fourth quarter. And to the extent there is a change, we think it would be modest but we'll let that play itself out.

    那麼該怎麼辦——我們預計第四季不會有任何變化。就變化而言,我們認為變化是適度的,但我們會讓變化自然發生。

  • Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Associate

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips - Associate

  • Yes, you got the question. And then, to follow -- another one is, so reduction in incentive comp. I know you have the trade timing headwind in 4Q but are there any changes to your expectations of investing in media or in the brands going into 4Q? Or is it how you're expecting last quarter?

    是的,你有這個問題。然後,另一個問題是,激勵補償的減少。我知道您在第四季度遇到了貿易時機逆風,但是您對進入第四季度的媒體或品牌投資的預期是否有任何變化?或者您對上個季度的預期是這樣的嗎?

  • Kofi A. Bruce - CFO and Interim Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

    Kofi A. Bruce - CFO and Interim Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

  • No, I think -- I appreciate the question. I would say one of the things that worked really well and I want to make sure it didn't get lost in the strong profit performance in the quarter is that we have continued to invest behind our brands at a mid-single-digit rate. I wouldn't expect that to change as we go into Q4 even as we're driving better-than-expected profitability in a year in which we've seen obviously some top line pressure.

    不,我想——我很欣賞這個問題。我想說,其中一件事非常有效,我想確保它不會在本季度強勁的利潤表現中迷失,那就是我們繼續以中個位數的速度投資於我們的品牌。我不認為這種情況會隨著我們進入第四季度而改變,儘管我們在這一年中實現了好於預期的盈利能力,並且我們明顯看到了一些頂線壓力。

  • So from where I sit, I think what we're hearing is, we'll continue to keep our foot on the pedal. I don't expect a material change. So I'd expect around the year out somewhere in the mid-single-digit range of increase on our media, which will put us comfortably ahead of our top line expectations.

    因此,從我的立場來看,我認為我們聽到的是,我們將繼續踩在踏板上。我預計不會發生實質變化。因此,我預計今年我們的媒體將出現中等個位數的成長,這將使我們輕鬆領先於我們的營收預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from David Palmer at Evercore ISI.

    我們將回答 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer 提出的下一個問題。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • A question on North America retail and what you're looking to see from that segment as you think about fiscal 2025. Obviously, that's a key high-margin segment and there's some big categories that make a lot of money for you in that segment. And I'm wondering, for those of us that are watching the scanner data and thinking about how you'll be thinking about the business and whether you can be sort of on algo for fiscal '25. What should we be looking for that will give you that confidence? For example, do you need to see volume approach flat year-over-year? Are there a couple of categories that you're reviewing a little bit more closely than others.

    關於北美零售業的問題,以及您在考慮2025 財年時希望從該細分市場看到什麼。顯然,這是一個關鍵的高利潤細分市場,並且有一些大類別可以在該細分市場中為您賺很多錢。我想知道,對於我們這些關注掃描器數據並思考您將如何考慮業務以及您是否可以在 25 財年採用演算法的人來說。我們應該尋找什麼才能帶給您信心?例如,您是否需要看到銷量與去年同期持平?您是否比其他類別更仔細地審查了某些類別?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • I'd say, you know, on -- without giving guidance to fiscal '25, we're still trying to kind of answer the tone of the question. I guess I would say we'll look for continued improvement in North America retail and hopefully, we'll see it in Pet too. But North America retail since you ask about that, hopefully, continued improvement. We saw a little bit in the third quarter and we'll see about what happens in the fourth quarter, particularly in volume improvements. And we'd hope to see that broadly. I mean, of course, we always look at the cereal category and what we're doing there and snacks in Mexican, some of our big categories. But I would say that would be broadly speaking, that's what we're looking for.

    我想說,你知道,在沒有對 25 財年提供指導的情況下,我們仍在嘗試回答這個問題的基調。我想我會說我們將尋求北美零售業的持續改進,希望我們也能在寵物領域看到這一點。但自從你問起這個問題以來,北美零售業有望繼續改善。我們在第三季看到了一些情況,我們將看到第四季度會發生什麼,特別是銷售量的改善。我們希望能夠廣泛地看到這一點。我的意思是,當然,我們總是關注穀物類別以及我們在那裡所做的事情以及墨西哥的零食,這是我們的一些大類別。但我想說的是,從廣義上講,這就是我們正在尋找的。

  • So we'd like to get back to -- we'd like to get back to a position of growth as a company and we're going to continue to invest to do that, to make sure we invest in marketing to make sure we grow. And so in a year where we hope productivity is still strong as we talked about earlier and inflation is still there but hopefully, relatively benign, hopefully, we can reinvest some of that productivity back into marketing spending so that we can continue to grow the top line of the business because we've been very good in the middle of the P&L. The biggest challenge, obviously, this year has been with growth. And so it's really important for us as a company and now in particular but everybody really to get back to growth.

    因此,我們希望回到——作為一家公司,我們希望回到成長的狀態,我們將繼續投資來做到這一點,以確保我們投資於行銷,以確保我們生長。因此,在這一年中,我們希望生產力仍然強勁,正如我們之前談到的那樣,通貨膨脹仍然存在,但希望相對溫和,希望我們可以將部分生產力重新投資到行銷支出中,以便我們能夠繼續成長頂部業務線,因為我們在損益表中表現得非常好。顯然,今年最大的挑戰是成長。因此,對於我們作為一家公司來說,特別是現在,但每個人都真正恢復成長非常重要。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • And then you were talking about early signs of a SNAP -- lack of SNAP subsidy headwind, I should say. What are you seeing? Is there -- is that -- is that something you were just seeing in the last week or two? Is it specific to certain categories that you think are a little bit more family oriented or meal oriented? I mean what are you seeing there?

    然後你談到了 SNAP 的早期跡象——我應該說,缺乏 SNAP 補貼。你看到什麼了?這是你在過去一兩週才看到的嗎?它是否特定於您認為更面向家庭或面向膳食的某些類別?我的意思是你在那裡看到什麼?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. The first thing, a couple of important points about SNAP, I said them earlier but I'm going to reiterate because I think they're important. The first is that, we have seen a little bit of a benefit but it's not going to be a step change. It's not going to come in and, frankly, week by week and it will roll in over time. And the benefits we're going to see from those are going to be modest. I mean, there may be -- we think there will be a benefit but I think they're going to be modest in nature.

    是的。首先,關於 SNAP 的幾個重要要點,我之前說過,但我要重申,因為我認為它們很重要。首先,我們已經看到了一點好處,但這不會是一個階躍變化。它不會出現,坦白說,一周又一周,它會隨著時間的推移而出現。我們從中看到的好處將是有限的。我的意思是,可能會有——我們認為會有好處,但我認為它們本質上會是適度的。

  • The other thing I guess, the other context I would add and I'm not going to go category by category but the benefits do accrue category by category. And so they're not going to be even from one category to the next. And so as we look at it, yes, we'll aggregate them because that's the easiest way to do it. But some categories are different than others. And certainly, when you're serving families as we do some -- for our portfolio, those are categories that tend to benefit from SNAP benefits more than others.

    我想的另一件事是,我要添加的其他背景,我不會逐一類別地進行討論,但好處確實會逐一類別地累積。因此,它們甚至不會從一個類別轉移到下一個類別。因此,當我們看到它時,是的,我們將匯總它們,因為這是最簡單的方法。但有些類別與其他類別不同。當然,當您像我們一樣為家庭提供服務時,對於我們的投資組合來說,這些類別往往比其他類別更能從 SNAP 福利中受益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will go next to Pamela Kaufman at Morgan Stanley.

    接下來我們將採訪摩根士丹利的帕梅拉·考夫曼。

  • Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

    Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

  • Just in thinking about some of the headwinds that may be abating over the couple of quarters, do you have an estimate of how much you think that SNAP may have impacted your overall growth or industry growth? And also just that the improvement in on-shelf availability, how much of a tailwind can that be to your growth outlook?

    考慮一下這幾個季度可能減弱的一些不利因素,您是否估計 SNAP 可能對您的整體成長或行業成長產生了多大影響?而且,貨架供應量的改善,對您的成長前景有多大的推動作用?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think, Pam, I'm not going to -- this would be unsatisfactory, so I apologize but I'm not going to try to quantify either one of those two things only because there are so many moving pieces. We've got -- we are lapping pricing as well in the external environment. But I would say the SNAP benefits are pretty modest. They're there but they're pretty modest. But look, I'll take a modest benefit at this point.

    是的。我想,帕姆,我不會——這會令人不滿意,所以我很抱歉,但我不會僅僅因為有太多移動的部分而嘗試量化這兩件事中的任何一件事。我們也在外部環境中調整定價。但我想說的是 SNAP 的福利相當有限。他們在那裡,但他們相當謙虛。但看,此時我會得到一點好處。

  • The on-shelf availability should also provide a modest benefit to us. But again, that will be over time and it won't be a onetime event. And that will really start kind of at the end of April, beginning of May, we would start to see the benefits of that into our first quarter. And so I think as we talk to you in June, hopefully, we'll give a little bit more satisfactory answer about kind of what we're seeing because we will -- we will have seen both of these things play out for a period of time.

    貨架上的可用性也應該為我們帶來一定的好處。但同樣,這將隨著時間的推移而發生,並且不會是一次性事件。這將在四月底、五月初真正開始,我們將開始看到第一季的好處。因此,我認為,當我們在六月與您交談時,希望我們能夠就我們所看到的情況給出更令人滿意的答案,因為我們將- 我們將在一段時間內看到這兩件事的發生的時間。

  • Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

    Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Understood. And then just on corporate expense, pretty notable reduction year-on-year. What's contributing to that? And should we be extrapolating these levels going forward?

    好的。明白了。然後僅在企業支出方面,年比就出現了相當顯著的減少。是什麼促成了這一點?我們是否應該繼續推論這些水平?

  • Kofi A. Bruce - CFO and Interim Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

    Kofi A. Bruce - CFO and Interim Chief Strategy & Growth Officer

  • Pam, appreciate the question. The primary driver in the quarter was reduction in our incentive-based comp accrual as we obviously are tracking a lower top line performance and comping last year, where we had to increase it pretty sizably on outstripping our top and bottom line performance last year. So I expect this to be a benefit that we'll see specific to the quarter. The other item is related to recall insurance recovery, which we booked in the quarter. So those are specific to the quarter and I wouldn't expect them to be part of the base expectation going forward.

    帕姆,感謝這個問題。本季的主要驅動因素是我們基於激勵的薪酬應計減少,因為我們顯然正在追蹤去年較低的頂線業績和業績,我們必須大幅增加它以超過去年的頂線和底線業績。因此,我預計這將是我們在本季看到的具體好處。另一個項目與我們在本季預訂的召回保險賠償有關。因此,這些是特定於本季的,我不認為它們會成為未來基本預期的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll go to the next question from John Baumgartner at Mizuho Securities.

    我們將討論瑞穗證券 (Mizuho Securities) 的約翰‧鮑姆加特納 (John Baumgartner) 提出的下一個問題。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

  • Jeff, I wanted to come back to the value-seeking consumer. And in North America retail, the areas where volumes have still been lagging. You look at cereal, go, frozen snacks, the category pricing is up 1/3 to 50% in 2019. What can we do at this point? Any levers left to maybe enhance the volumes that are a bit more independent of the macro. I mean, can you go to the pack changes as you're doing in pet, can you innovate or market consumers into higher prices? Or is it just that some categories overshot on pricing, relative to what consumers can bear and now it's down either taking prices the other way or just waiting for consumers to grow into these levels financially?

    傑夫,我想回到追求價值的消費者。而在北美零售業,銷售仍落後的領域。你看看麥片、外帶、冷凍零食,2019 年這些類別的定價上漲了 1/3 到 50%。此時我們能做什麼?剩下的任何槓桿可能會增強與巨集更加獨立的音量。我的意思是,你能像在寵物領域那樣進行包裝變化嗎?你能創新或向消費者推銷更高的價格嗎?或者只是某些類別的定價超出了消費者的承受能力,而現在要么以其他方式定價,要么只是等待消費者在經濟上成長到這些水平?

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. A couple of things I would say. The most important thing I would start with is that what you see in all the categories you mentioned, is a significant change in input cost inflation. So we've been the recipients of quite a bit of inflation over time. More than 30%, in fact, I think, it's 32% over the past 3 years or so. So the cause of prices going up really has been input cost inflation and the prices that we received.

    是的。我想說幾件事。我首先要說的最重要的事情是,您在提到的所有類別中看到的是投入成本通膨的重大變化。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們一直是相當多的通貨膨脹的受害者。超過30%,事實上,我認為,過去3年左右是32%。因此,價格上漲的原因實際上是投入成本通膨和我們收到的價格。

  • As we look category by category, we don't think we're out of line to where we were pre-pandemic actually. And I think it's important, as consumers seek value, they seek in a variety of ways. The most important way are the benefits that our brands provide. And so part of the reason that we continue to invest in media and marketing and will continue to do so is that our brands have value and what they provide, Cheerios provides heart health. And Pillsbury provides quick, easy, convenient meals at dinner time. And so that's the most important thing.

    當我們逐一類別查看時,我們認為我們實際上並沒有與大流行前的情況脫節。我認為這很重要,因為消費者尋求價值,他們會以多種方式尋求。最重要的方式是我們的品牌提供的好處。因此,我們繼續投資媒體和行銷並將繼續這樣做的部分原因是我們的品牌具有價值,而它們所提供的,Cheerios 提供心臟健康。 Pillsbury 在晚餐時間提供快速、簡單、方便的餐點。所以這是最重要的事情。

  • But then more specifically, consumers also look at value in different ways when it comes to pricing and some want to buy in bulk. So they'd be going to a mass store to buy a big boxes of cereal, for example, for the lowest price per ounce, where they'll be buying 80 packages of fruit snacks at a time at a warehouse store. Otherwise, they'd feed the soccer team. Otherwise, they may be stopping off at a dollar store, at a discount store to buy a 1 pack at a time. And so there's not 1 monolithic consumer. Every consumer looks for value in their families in a variety of different ways, including trying to feed their families at home.

    但更具體地說,消費者在定價時也會以不同的方式看待價值,有些人希望大量購買。例如,他們會去一家大型商店以每盎司最低的價格購買一大盒穀物食品,而他們會在倉庫商店一次購買 80 包水果零食。否則,他們就會為足球隊提供食物。否則,他們可能會在一元商店、折扣店停下來一次買一包。所以不存在單一的消費者。每個消費者都以各種不同的方式尋找家庭的價值,包括嘗試在家中養活家人。

  • So we don't think that our pricing has gotten ahead of inflation. In fact, it hasn't. And we feel good about where we are in the categories. I think what we have to do is lap some of the onetime on shelf availability, things we've seen now, we've lapped pricing. And once we do that, we feel good about our ability. And I think you see that in the third quarter. We -- in North America retail, we grew market share in about 45% of our categories in the third quarter, which is a significant improvement from what we had seen in the quarter before. And hopefully, as we lap some of these other factors, snapping on shelf availability, we'll see continued improvement.

    因此,我們認為我們的定價並未領先通膨。事實上,還沒有。我們對自己在類別中的位置感覺良好。我認為我們要做的就是對一些一次性的貨架供應情況進行調整,我們現在已經看到的東西,我們已經對定價進行了調整。一旦我們這樣做了,我們就會對自己的能力感到滿意。我想你會在第三季看到這一點。在北美零售業,第三季我們的品類市佔率成長了約 45%,比我們上一季看到的情況有了顯著改善。希望當我們考慮其他一些因素、抓住貨架可用性時,我們會看到持續的改善。

  • Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

    Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

  • Okay. I think that's all the time we have. Before we wrap here, I think I'll pass it back to Jeff for some closing comments.

    好的。我想這就是我們所有的時間了。在我們結束之前,我想我會把它傳回傑夫以徵求一些結束語。

  • Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey L. Harmening - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So well, thanks, everyone, for the time this morning. I guess I would start by saying we're encouraged by our third quarter results, particularly improvement in competitiveness in our categories. We're competing effectively and we thought that we would. And a lot of this is driven by lapping some pricing from a year ago and our ability to continue to execute well.

    是的。好的,謝謝大家今天早上的時間。我想我首先要說的是,我們對第三季的業績感到鼓舞,特別是我們類別競爭力的提升。我們正在有效地競爭,而且我們認為我們會這樣做。這在很大程度上是由一年前的一些定價以及我們繼續良好執行的能力所推動的。

  • We have innovated well. We have grown distribution. We have done -- we're executing our plan well. As we look to the fourth quarter, I mean, there are some timing issues as we talked about with expense -- the timing of expenses. But broadly speaking, we would expect our third quarter sales to kind of play out in the same magnitude that we saw in the third quarter. And our goal really now is to gain some -- regain some top line momentum as we continue to be very disciplined in the middle of our P&L. And we think that combination of factors will serve us well. We'll see how it plays out. There are a number of factors in the coming months, including this lapping of the SNAP benefit as well as on shelf availability and we'll be able to come to you in June with certainly a clear picture of what we expect in fiscal '25 and what some of those benefits are that we'll lap over the coming couple of months.

    我們創新得很好。我們已經擴大了分銷。我們已經做到了——我們正在很好地執行我們的計劃。當我們展望第四季時,我的意思是,正如我們談到的費用問題,存在一些時間問題——費用的時間安排。但總的來說,我們預計第三季的銷售額將與第三季的銷售額相同。我們現在的目標實際上是獲得一些東西——重新獲得一些頂線動力,因為我們在損益表中繼續保持嚴格的紀律。我們認為,多種因素的結合將對我們有利。我們將看看結果如何。未來幾個月有很多因素,包括 SNAP 福利的覆蓋範圍以及貨架供應情況,我們將能夠在 6 月份向您提供我們對 25 財年和其中一些好處是我們將在未來幾個月內討論的。

  • Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

    Jeff Siemon - VP of IR

  • Great. So we'll wrap it there. Thanks, everyone, for the time this morning. Feel free to reach out if you've got follow-up questions throughout the day. Have a good day, everyone. Thanks.

    偉大的。所以我們將它包裹在那裡。謝謝大家今天早上的時間。如果您全天有任何後續問題,請隨時與我們聯繫。祝大家有美好的一天。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。