通用磨坊 (GIS) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the General Mills First Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Q&A Webcast.

您好，歡迎收聽通用磨坊 2023 財年第一季度收益問答網絡直播。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Wednesday, September 21, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Siemon, VP of Investor Relations.

提醒一下，本次會議將於 2022 年 9 月 21 日星期三錄製。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Jeff Siemon。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，凱利，大家早上好。

We appreciate you joining us today for our Q&A session on our first quarter fiscal '23 results. I hope everyone had time to review our press release and listen to our prepared remarks and view the presentation materials, which were made available this morning on our IR website. It's important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on our current views and assumptions.

感謝您今天加入我們的問答環節，了解我們 23 財年第一季度的業績。我希望每個人都有時間查看我們的新聞稿，聽取我們準備好的評論並查看今天早上在我們的 IR 網站上提供的演示材料。需要注意的是，在我們的問答環節中，我們可能會根據我們當前的觀點和假設做出前瞻性陳述。

Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call. I'm here with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; Kofi Bruce, our CFO; and Jon Nudi, Group President of our North America Retail segment. So let's go ahead and get to the first question. Kelly, can you please get us started?

請參閱今天上午的新聞稿，了解可能影響前瞻性陳述的因素以及非 GAAP 信息的核對，這可能會在今天的電話會議上討論。我和我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Jeff Harmening 在一起；我們的首席財務官科菲布魯斯；和我們北美零售部門的集團總裁 Jon Nudi。因此，讓我們繼續討論第一個問題。凱利，你能讓我們開始嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Andrew Lazar。

Maybe to start off, I think the area that diverged from expectations the most in the quarter was certainly on gross margin, which actually expanded modestly year-over-year. I was hoping you could provide a bit more detail on sort of the drivers of this performance. And maybe more importantly, how do you see the sustainability and sequential cadence of margin performance through the remainder of the year.

也許一開始，我認為本季度最偏離預期的領域肯定是毛利率，實際上同比略有增長。我希望你能提供更多關於這種性能驅動因素的詳細信息。也許更重要的是，您如何看待今年剩餘時間利潤率表現的可持續性和連續節奏。

Sure, Andrew. This is Kofi. I would just note, we're pleased with start on margins for Q1. The primary driver, just as we think about kind of where we are, the HMM cost savings plus benefits from price mix, offset inflation, deleverage and our other sort of operating costs we've taken out in this environment to show modest expansion in the quarter. I think as we look forward, we're not going to give guidance largely in recognition still of the fact that we are in a highly dynamic environment and still vulnerable to supply chain disruption.

當然，安德魯。這是科菲。我只想指出，我們對第一季度的利潤率開始感到滿意。主要驅動因素，正如我們考慮我們所處的位置一樣，HMM 成本節省加上價格組合帶來的好處，抵消通貨膨脹，去槓桿化和我們在這種環境下採取的其他類型的運營成本，以顯示在四分之一。我認為，在我們向前看的時候，我們不會在很大程度上承認我們處於一個高度動態的環境中並且仍然容易受到供應鏈中斷的影響這一事實。

So as we think about the operating environment, there's still a high degree of volatility. The biggest variable, as you can imagine, as we think about the gross margin progression for us are going to be volume performance on the level of disruption and as we obviously would just take note of the inflationary environment, where we just noted that we're expecting modestly higher inflation for the year. So that's kind of the table setting.

因此，當我們考慮運營環境時，仍然存在高度的波動性。正如你可以想像的那樣，最大的變量，當我們考慮我們的毛利率進展時，將是中斷水平上的銷量表現，因為我們顯然會注意到通貨膨脹環境，我們剛剛注意到我們'重新預計今年通脹會溫和上升。這就是餐桌設置。

Okay. And then I guess, second, I'm curious of some of the volume declines that you're seeing just based on elasticity in, let's say, North America retail, do you have a sense for how much of that is due to, let's say, the loss of promoted volume versus base or full price volume, just given that you and others are not promoting as much in light of current service levels. And I guess I asked this because it could help us get a -- maybe an even better sense of the health of sort of the underlying business, if you will.

好的。然後我想，第二，我很好奇你看到的一些銷量下降只是基於彈性，比如說，北美零售業，你知道其中有多少是由於，讓我們例如，促銷量相對於基本或全價量的損失，只是考慮到您和其他人沒有根據當前的服務水平進行大量促銷。我想我問這個是因為它可以幫助我們 - 如果你願意的話，也許可以更好地了解某種基礎業務的健康狀況。

Yes. Jon Nudi, do you want to take that?

是的。喬恩·努迪，你願意接受嗎？

Andrew. So as we look at the unit declines, the vast majority of that is due to promotional pulling back and not so much frequency, but really adjusting our price points. So in most categories, it's up to about 75% of the unit decline is due to promotional pullback.

安德魯。因此，當我們看到單位下降時，其中絕大多數是由於促銷回落而不是頻率太高，而是真正調整了我們的價格點。因此，在大多數類別中，高達約 75% 的單位下降是由於促銷回落所致。

Our next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

I'm trying to think of a good follow-up on gross profit because obviously, that was very impressive this quarter. I'm wondering, how are you viewing your gross profit performance, your gross margin performance versus your plan so far? Maybe you can speak to that. And I'm wondering -- to what degree would you be teasing or have us tease out perhaps some benefits that might not repeat in the future, some things that are outsized benefits such as some of the market share gains in your higher-margin categories or perhaps promotional activity that you don't feel like will be as favorable. Anything that you would do to caution us on gross margins?

我正在嘗試對毛利潤進行良好的跟進，因為顯然，本季度這非常令人印象深刻。我想知道，到目前為止，您如何看待您的毛利潤表現、毛利率表現與您的計劃？也許你可以談談。我想知道——你會在多大程度上取笑或讓我們梳理出一些未來可能不會重複的好處，一些是巨大的好處，比如在你的利潤率較高的類別中獲得一些市場份額或者您不喜歡的促銷活動可能會同樣有利。你會做些什麼來提醒我們注意毛利率？

Yes. I think sort of broadly beyond the quality, let me get to the front part of your question. In the quarter, largely the -- what was sort of unexpected on gross margin was the level of volume and on the back of the elasticities that Jon just alluded to, which were lower than we expected going into the quarter and into the beginning of the fiscal year.

是的。我認為遠遠超出了質量，讓我談談你問題的前半部分。在本季度，毛利率在很大程度上出乎意料的是銷量水平和喬恩剛剛提到的彈性，這低於我們在本季度和年初的預期財政年度。

So that resulted in less deleverage pressure. So that flowed through to gross margin. I think as a cautionary note, well, I would certainly be in the front of the line along with all our business leaders, including Jon, to want the environment stabilized. I think supply chain disruption, that is still very, very real, categorically well above historical levels and the cost of servicing volume in this business even as we think we are doing it competitively in our North America business is just higher and will remain higher until we see that stabilization.

因此，這導致去槓桿壓力較小。因此，這流向了毛利率。我認為作為警告，我肯定會和我們所有的商業領袖（包括喬恩）一起站在第一線，希望環境穩定下來。我認為供應鏈中斷仍然是非常非常真實的，絕對遠高於歷史水平，並且即使我們認為我們在北美業務中具有競爭力，該業務的服務量成本只是更高，並且將保持更高，直到我們看到了這種穩定。

So that probably is the first and primary cautionary note. And the second is obviously the interaction of pricing and volume and elasticities in this environment remains. So hard to read because we are in a historical period, and it is hard, frankly, to coalescence. So those are sort of the cautionary notes, and they all have pretty reasonably significant impact on gross margins.

所以這可能是第一個也是主要的警告。第二個顯然是定價和數量的相互作用以及這種環境下的彈性仍然存在。因為我們處於一個歷史時期，所以很難閱讀，坦率地說，很難合併。所以這些都是一些警示性的說明，它們都對毛利率產生了相當大的影響。

I think the last thing is, as we noted in the scripted remarks, we did flag some other headwinds that potentially will flow through to operating margin, including increased investment on the business to sustain long-term growth. and the cost of -- the expected cost of the recall on Haagen-Dazs.

我認為最後一件事是，正如我們在腳本評論中指出的那樣，我們確實指出了其他一些可能會影響營業利潤率的不利因素，包括增加對業務的投資以維持長期增長。以及成本——哈根達斯召回的預期成本。

And if I could just squeeze in just a follow-up on your -- the supply chain comment. Was there improvement through the quarter such that our so-called exit rate, supply chain friction was less at the end of the quarter than it was at the beginning of the quarter that gives you hope that, that will be less going forward? And I'll pass it on.

如果我能對您的供應鏈評論進行跟進。本季度是否有改善，以至於我們所謂的退出率，供應鏈摩擦在本季度末比在本季度初要少，這給了你希望，未來會減少嗎？我會把它傳下去。

Yes, sure. So a fair question. As we entered the year, we expected a very modest improvement in the level of supply chain disruption. The quarter effectively played out in line with those expectations and with the expectations we set at the beginning of the year, which are -- we're still expecting a categorically higher level of supply chain disruption than our historical experience.

是的，當然。所以一個公平的問題。隨著我們進入這一年，我們預計供應鏈中斷的程度會有非常溫和的改善。該季度的實際表現符合這些預期以及我們在年初設定的預期，即——我們仍然預計供應鏈中斷的程度絕對高於我們的歷史經驗。

Our next question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Growe 和 Stifel。

I just had a question, if I could. And I think you have an expectation that elasticity will increase from here. I think that's a very prudent assumption. I'm just curious if you're seeing any signs of that or any indicators that would increase that -- that would indicate that elasticity is increasing or maybe some categories where you're seeing it perhaps that give you a bit of a warning sign for the business overall. It seems like it's going pretty well across the industry. I just want to see if there's anything that we're missing here.

我只是有一個問題，如果可以的話。而且我認為您期望彈性會從這裡增加。我認為這是一個非常謹慎的假設。我只是好奇你是否看到任何跡像或任何會增加這種情況的指標——這表明彈性正在增加，或者你看到的某些類別可能會給你一些警告信號對於整個業務。整個行業似乎進展順利。我只是想看看這裡有沒有我們遺漏的東西。

Chris, this is Jeff Harmening. I mean I don't think that -- I don't think you've missed anything so far. As Kofi alluded to just a minute ago, elasticities have been more favorable to us than we had anticipated in the current environment, particularly as consumers have traded to away from home eating to more at-home eating consumption. It's just a matter of as we look through the year, we would anticipate that elasticities would become a little bit less favorable than they are right now, but still more favorable than they would have been historically, but so far, we haven't seen really any change in elasticities, which for us was a positive for the quarter.

克里斯，這是傑夫哈梅寧。我的意思是我不這麼認為——我認為你到目前為止還沒有錯過任何事情。正如科菲在一分鐘前所暗示的那樣，在當前環境下，彈性對我們的影響比我們預期的要大，尤其是在消費者從外出就餐轉向在家就餐消費的情況下。這只是我們回顧這一年的問題，我們預計彈性會變得比現在稍微不那麼有利，但仍然比歷史上更有利，但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到實際上彈性的任何變化，這對我們來說都是本季度的積極因素。

That's great. And I know we've had a few gross margin questions. It was quite a great performance there. I just was curious maybe Kofi to you and to the phasing questions around the gross margins. Do you still have price increases that are going into place that need to take place to offset the inflation? And I guess related to that, you had this increase in inflation. Does that prompt you to take more price in it at retail overall?

那太棒了。我知道我們有一些毛利率問題。那裡的表演非常棒。我只是對你和圍繞毛利率的階段性問題感到好奇，也許科菲。您是否仍然需要進行價格上漲以抵消通貨膨脹？我想與此相關的是，通貨膨脹增加了。這是否會促使您在整體零售時採取更高的價格？

No, I appreciate that. We have most of the vast majority of our pricing in the market to address or announced to address the inflation that we see, including the revised modest revision up in the inflationary guidance. And the last round being in our North America food service business, where we've taken some additional steps to address costs of goods as we saw more inflation in the quarter then we did price mix. So I think we're in a place where we feel comfortable we've got this sort of bounded.

不，我很感激。我們在市場上的大部分定價都需要解決或宣布解決我們看到的通脹問題，包括通脹指引中修訂後的適度修正。最後一輪是在我們的北美食品服務業務中，我們已經採取了一些額外的措施來解決商品成本問題，因為我們在本季度看到了更多的通貨膨脹，然後我們做了價格組合。所以我認為我們處於一個讓我們感到舒適的地方，我們有這種界限。

Our next question comes from Cody Ross with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Cody Ross。

I'm just going to nitpick a little bit here. You noted supply chain headwinds in pet. Can we unpack that a little bit. Which brands and categories are you seeing the most impact? And I'm just a little bit surprised that given the pet demand that you're seeing or demand in the pet category, you were not able to deliver total sales dollars in line with the fourth quarter of last year.

我只是在這裡挑剔一點。您注意到寵物的供應鏈逆風。我們可以把它拆開一點。您認為哪些品牌和類別的影響最大？而且我有點驚訝，鑑於您看到的寵物需求或寵物類別的需求，您無法提供與去年第四季度一致的總銷售額。

Yes. So let me take that, Kofi, and I'll unpack it a little bit and if you want me to unpack it even more, let me know. But I would say first, I would remind everybody on the call that we grew our pet business double digits yet again in the first quarter. And then we've increased our pet sales of $1 billion over the last 4 years. And so while it may not have been the run rate in Q4 it is still growing at double digits. So I guess that would be my first bit of context.

是的。所以，讓我接受吧，科菲，我會稍微拆開包裝，如果你想讓我再拆開包裝，請告訴我。但我首先要說的是，我會在電話中提醒大家，我們的寵物業務在第一季度再次增長了兩位數。在過去的 4 年裡，我們的寵物銷售額增加了 10 億美元。因此，雖然它可能不是第四季度的運行速度，但它仍在以兩位數的速度增長。所以我想這將是我的第一個背景。

The second, I would say is that I think it's also important to remember that Q1 last year, our sales were really, really strong. And that's not only because we had capacity, but also we were working off some inventory. So we are selling not only everything we could make first quarter of last year, but we are also drawing down inventory levels, a product we had made previously. And so the comparisons are particularly difficult. By the way, as they are in the second quarter of this year as well. And so the comparisons are really difficult.

第二個，我要說的是，我認為記住去年第一季度也很重要，我們的銷售非常非常強勁。這不僅是因為我們有能力，而且我們正在處理一些庫存。因此，我們不僅在銷售去年第一季度可以生產的所有產品，而且還在降低庫存水平，這是我們之前生產的產品。因此，比較特別困難。順便說一句，今年第二季度也是如此。所以比較真的很困難。

When we look at -- so when we look at our performance, I would say our supply chain improved modestly throughout the quarter in pet. Our service levels improved modestly, in line with our expectations. And we actually grew share in the wet pet food category, and we lost share in treats and dry and that's where we don't have the capacity. Just to answer your question a little further, we, as a reminder, we anticipate having more capacity for treats coming online in the third quarter in January of this year. And then dry is going to take another few quarters to get in line. And that's important to note because as we think about our second quarter in pets, we'll have a lot of costs from increasing service in the business, whether it's through external supply chain, or through adding capacity on treats and warehouse space and all those things, but we won't yet have the sales associated with it. So you can expect our second quarter in pet to be a little bit challenged, but we're highly confident that will rebound in the third and fourth quarters of this year.

當我們看 - 所以當我們看我們的表現時，我會說我們的供應鏈在整個季度中在寵物方面有所改善。我們的服務水平略有提高，符合我們的預期。實際上，我們在濕寵物食品類別中的份額有所增長，而我們在零食和乾糧類別中失去了份額，而這正是我們沒有能力的地方。為了進一步回答您的問題，我們提醒您，我們預計在今年 1 月的第三季度將有更多的零食上線。然後乾燥將需要另外幾個季度才能排隊。這一點很重要，因為當我們考慮第二季度的寵物業務時，無論是通過外部供應鏈，還是通過增加零食和倉庫空間的容量以及所有這些，我們都會因增加業務服務而付出大量成本東西，但我們還沒有與之相關的銷售。因此，您可以預期我們在寵物方面的第二季度會受到一些挑戰，但我們非常有信心在今年第三季度和第四季度反彈。

And that's 2Q Pet margin that you're referring to, not sales? I just want to make sure I understand that.

那是您指的 2Q Pet 利潤率，而不是銷售額？我只是想確保我理解這一點。

Yes. I would say primarily the margin piece, yes.

是的。我會說主要是邊緣部分，是的。

Got you. That's helpful. And then one more quick question, if I may. You noted in your prepared remarks plans to step up brand building and investments for growth. Which categories and brands do you see the most opportunity?

得到你。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，還有一個快速的問題。您在準備好的評論中提到了加強品牌建設和投資以促進增長的計劃。您認為哪些品類和品牌最有機會？

Well, I would say, over the long run, we see the most opportunity in our global brands and our local gem businesses. And so that they include businesses like Pet and Haagen-Dazs and Nature Valley are probably the biggest upside potential. But also some of our local gem businesses like Totino's where we highlighted during the quarter, and we're adding capacity is now a $1 billion brand for us, Pillsbury, which is a $1 billion brand. Wanchai Ferry dumplings in China. So the biggest areas of opportunity for us are going to be probably the ones that you would anticipate, which are big billion-dollar brands in global categories as well as some of our local gem brands that I just mentioned.

好吧，我想說，從長遠來看，我們在全球品牌和本地寶石業務中看到了最大的機會。因此，它們包括 Pet 和 Haagen-Dazs 和 Nature Valley 等企業可能是最大的上行潛力。但還有我們在本季度重點介紹的一些本地寶石業務，例如 Totino's，我們正在增加產能，現在對我們來說是一個價值 10 億美元的品牌 Pillsbury，這是一個價值 10 億美元的品牌。中國灣仔渡輪餃子。因此，對我們而言，最大的機會領域可能是您預期的領域，它們是全球類別中價值數十億美元的大品牌，以及我剛才提到的一些本地寶石品牌。

Our next question comes from Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

I want to hit on gross margin again. And then a follow-up on Pet. On the gross margin, so acknowledging the uncertainty around volume progression and the supply questions, Kofi, you mentioned. We just focused on the phasing of run rate inflation relative to pricing benefits and HMM benefits. Do any of those things get tougher from 1Q before they get better? Or it feels like you're relatively well caught up between pricing and productivity benefits relative to the rate of inflation as we run through the first quarter. So I'm just trying to get a sense of, a, if that's correct. And then, b, the only thing that can get worse for some reason before they get better?

我想再次提高毛利率。然後是寵物的後續行動。在毛利率方面，您提到了科菲，因此承認銷量增長和供應問題的不確定性。我們只關注相對於定價收益和 HMM 收益的運行率通脹的階段性。在好轉之前，這些事情是否會從 1Q 變得更加艱難？或者感覺就像我們在第一季度運行時相對於通貨膨脹率而言，您在定價和生產力方面的收益相對較好。所以我只是想了解一下，如果那是正確的。然後，b，在他們變得更好之前，唯一會因為某種原因變得更糟的事情嗎？

Well, I would say, broadly, we are modestly higher on inflation in the front half and modestly is probably appropriate. But I think on balance, it is still a relatively balanced year in terms of our inflation call between 14% and 15%.

好吧，我想說，從廣義上講，我們對前半部分的通脹率略高，適度可能是合適的。但我認為總的來說，就我們在 14% 到 15% 之間的通脹預期而言，這仍然是一個相對平衡的年份。

Steve, this is just -- I'd just say, from a pricing standpoint, we will start to roll over more meaningful pricing in the back half of this year. And obviously, we saw a strong price/mix come through in Q1 that's likely similar in Q2 and then it decelerates as we start comping more meaningful step-ups last year.

史蒂夫，這只是 - 我只想說，從定價的角度來看，我們將在今年下半年開始推出更有意義的定價。顯然，我們在第一季度看到了強勁的價格/組合，這在第二季度可能相似，然後隨著我們去年開始進行更有意義的升級，它會減速。

Yes. okay. That's fair. And then on the Pet question, given sort of the tightness of supply, and it looks like you're obviously making efforts to bring supply online. But it feels like the real relief isn't going to come at this point until fiscal '24. We've seen competitors in the space here start to buy up capacity to sort of accelerate that and get incremental capacity online sooner. And I just wanted to kind of play that off to you and just get a sense for -- is that something you would consider as you think about capital allocation and M&A strategies is adding capacity through acquisition, something that's on the table? Or are you more inclined to just stick to building it out and working through co-packers.

是的。好的。這還算公平。然後是寵物問題，考慮到供應緊張，看起來你顯然正在努力將供應上線。但感覺真正的緩解要到 24 財年才會出現。我們已經看到該領域的競爭對手開始購買容量以加快速度並更快地在線獲得增量容量。我只是想對你說一下，只是想了解一下——當你考慮資本配置和併購策略時，你會考慮通過收購增加產能，這是擺在桌面上的東西嗎？還是您更傾向於堅持構建它並通過聯合包裝商工作。

Yes. Thanks. Very fair question. Let me make sure. There's one point I want to make sure or clarify (inaudible) because you talked about relief coming in fiscal '24. I would say, I think about it in 2 pieces. And I'm not trying to nitpick, but I think this is important. Our treat capacity -- we're lacking capacity in treat and in dry. On treats, we'll bring on external capacity in the third quarter of this year. So we don't need to wait until fiscal '24 for treat capacity, and we're really short on that. We bought a great business on Nudges and True Chews and so forth, we're branding at Blue Buffalo. So we're really excited about what we can do.

是的。謝謝。非常公平的問題。讓我確定一下。我想確認或澄清一點（聽不清），因為您談到了 24 財年的救濟。我會說，我認為它分為兩部分。我並不是要挑剔，但我認為這很重要。我們的治療能力——我們缺乏治療和乾燥的能力。在零食方面，我們將在今年第三季度引入外部產能。所以我們不需要等到 24 財年的治療能力，我們真的很缺乏。我們在 Nudges 和 True Chews 等方面收購了一家很棒的公司，我們在 Blue Buffalo 進行品牌推廣。所以我們對我們能做的事情感到非常興奮。

We just need the capacity, and we don't need to go out and buy additional capacity for that because we will have what we outcome in January. On the dry, it is true that it's going to take a while for us to get dry capacity. And if something became available, whether it's through external supply chain or buying or another source. It's the question, would we be willing to look at that, absolutely, we'd be willing to look at that if it would speed up our rate instead of doing it internally.

我們只需要容量，我們不需要為此購買額外的容量，因為我們將在一月份獲得我們的結果。在乾式上，我們確實需要一段時間才能獲得乾式容量。如果有東西可用，無論是通過外部供應鏈還是購買或其他來源。問題是，我們是否願意看一下，絕對，如果它會加快我們的速度而不是在內部進行，我們願意看一下。

We haven't had that option yet present itself, but we're at 2, we would certainly evaluate that and the speed to market of that and the cost relative to doing it ourselves.

我們還沒有這個選項，但我們處於第 2 階段，我們肯定會評估它的上市速度以及相對於我們自己做的成本。

Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jason English。

Congrats on a strong start to the year. I'm going to come back to Pet, but with a different question. So first, the capacity that you're going to be bringing on in dry, can you give us some context in terms of like quantify how much is this is going to add for you in fiscal '24.

祝賀今年開局強勁。我將回到寵物，但有一個不同的問題。因此，首先，您將要增加的產能，您能否給我們一些背景信息，例如量化這將在 24 財年為您增加多少。

Jason, we said it was -- it's going to be about upwards of $150 million of capital that we're putting in. We talked about that on the Q4 call. But beyond that, we haven't quantified what percentage of additional capacity, but it will be a meaningful chunk to add.

傑森，我們說是——我們投入的資金將超過 1.5 億美元。我們在第四季度的電話會議上談到了這一點。但除此之外，我們還沒有量化額外容量的百分比，但這將是一個有意義的添加塊。

Okay. Okay. and you're not alone, right? Nestle is adding, Mars is adding. Hill's is adding, as Steve mentioned, both organically and inorganically. Simmons is adding, Golp's is adding , like it's a (inaudible) of small manufacturers, there's a lot of capacity being built. It seems like it's coming in like the wake of COVID as we start to anniversary a pull-forward of pet adoption.

好的。好的。而且你並不孤單，對吧？雀巢正在添加，瑪氏正在添加。正如史蒂夫所說，希爾正在有機地和無機地添加。 Simmons 正在添加，Golp 正在添加，就像它是（聽不清）小型製造商一樣，正在建設大量產能。當我們開始紀念寵物收養的周年紀念時，它似乎就像 COVID 之後一樣到來。

In other words, it seems like it's coming at a time when there's not a lot of volume growth in the industry. How does this play out? And as we think forward, what's the risk that Pet gets -- gets pretty darn competitive with an overbuild of capacity and becomes a pretty promotional category.

換句話說，它似乎是在該行業的銷量增長不多的時候到來的。這是怎麼回事？正如我們向前思考的那樣，Pet 所面臨的風險是什麼——由於產能過剩而變得非常有競爭力，並成為一個非常有促銷意義的類別。

Yes. I understand the rationale behind the question. But I mean promotional activity in pet really is in a very productive effort because demand is pretty inelastic and consumers tend to be very loyal. I would also add that even prepandemic, as you probably realized, Jason, you probably remember this, is that we were growing Blue Buffalo double digits already even in a category that was barely growing in terms of pound before that. And the most important thing to remember is not the trend of the pandemic, but it's a humanization trend, which I know you well remember. And that's been going on for 15 years or so and Blue Buffalo is very well positioned to grow in that market.

是的。我理解這個問題背後的理由。但我的意思是，寵物促銷活動確實是一項非常有成效的工作，因為需求非常缺乏彈性，而且消費者往往非常忠誠。我還要補充一點，即使在大流行之前，正如你可能意識到的那樣，傑森，你可能還記得這一點，是我們已經在增長 Blue Buffalo 兩位數，即使在此之前以磅計幾乎沒有增長的類別。而且最重要的要記住的不是大流行的趨勢，而是人性化的趨勢，我知道你記得很清楚。這已經持續了 15 年左右，Blue Buffalo 非常適合在該市場發展。

So even in the face of a category that sees low growth in pounds, Blue Buffalo participates in the fastest-growing part of a very attractive category with the best brand. And so we're confident no matter what happens in the rest of the category that Blue Buffalo is going to be well positioned as we look to the future.

因此，即使面對一個磅數增長緩慢的品類，Blue Buffalo 還是以最佳品牌參與了一個極具吸引力的品類中增長最快的部分。因此，無論在其他類別中發生什麼，我們都相信 Blue Buffalo 在我們展望未來時將處於有利地位。

Yes. No doubt. I'm not arguing that premiumization should fade away. And to that point, you've got double-digit growth this quarter. I think everyone has double-digit growth because the inflation out there. Can you unpack maybe that price/mix line then for us? Like how much of it just pass-through of higher cost? And how much of it is the mix, the premiumization that you're talking about?

是的。毫無疑問。我並不是說高端化應該消失。到那時，你在本季度實現了兩位數的增長。我認為每個人都有兩位數的增長，因為那裡的通貨膨脹。你能為我們解開那個價格/混合線嗎？比如有多少只是通過更高的成本？有多少是混合的，你所說的高端化？

It's really a combination. So we did -- we have seen meaningful pricing SRM actions on the business obviously, the business itself is high mix, but the largest amount is really what we're seeing from an SRM standpoint in the quarter.

這真的是一個組合。所以我們做到了——我們顯然看到了對業務有意義的定價 SRM 行動，業務本身是高度混合的，但從 SRM 的角度來看，我們在本季度看到的數量最多。

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

Wanted to ask a question about foodservice. And I guess, looking at the margins in the quarter, I know you called out in the press release that maybe pricing has lagged outside of flour milling. So can you just talk about a couple of things. One, how much pricing do you think you're going to need to recover margins? Can margins sort of recover in the course of fiscal '23. And then maybe separate from that, is there any, I guess, like stranded cost or dyssynergy related to the resegmentation that's kind of reflected there.

想問一個關於餐飲服務的問題。而且我想，看看本季度的利潤率，我知道你在新聞稿中指出，定價可能落後於麵粉加工。所以你能談談幾件事嗎？一，您認為您需要多少定價才能恢復利潤率？利潤率能否在 23 財年恢復。然後也許與此分開，我猜是否有任何與重新細分相關的擱淺成本或協同失調，這在某種程度上反映了那裡。

So is it more than just inflation? And is there any like stranded cost or anything related to the resegmentation that's affecting it in the near term?

那麼它不僅僅是通貨膨脹嗎？是否有任何類似的擱淺成本或與近期影響它的重新細分相關的任何事情？

So I'll have Kofi probably get into the specifics of this, but this is Jeff. Let me just -- it was -- it's a lot to unpack in food service this quarter. I guess one of the takeaways in top line I would share with you is that we have high confidence in our food service business and certainly and the fact that we can grow it into the future and that the margins will improve.

所以我會讓Kofi 了解一下具體情況，但我是Jeff。讓我 - 它是 - 本季度的食品服務有很多需要解開。我想我想與您分享的最重要的一點是，我們對我們的食品服務業務充滿信心，當然，我們可以將其發展到未來並且利潤率將會提高。

So I want you to know there's nothing fundamentally amiss in our food service business. Having said that, it was -- there's a lot going on in this particular quarter. So probably I'll let Kofi explain a little bit of that.

所以我想讓你知道，我們的食品服務業務根本沒有任何問題。話雖如此，在這個特定的季度發生了很多事情。所以可能我會讓科菲解釋一下。

Sure. And let me just start with your reference to index flour pricing or index pricing on our bakery flour. So as a reminder, that is profit neutral, dollar profit neutral. So as prices go up to cover costs, it just flows through at a fixed dollar profit. So as you think about that, a good chunk of the price/mix you saw in the business, which was about 21 points was actually driven by index pricing.

當然。讓我從您提到的指數麵粉定價或我們烘焙麵粉的指數定價開始。所以提醒一下，這是利潤中性，美元利潤中性。因此，隨著價格上漲以彌補成本，它只是以固定的美元利潤流過。因此，當您考慮到這一點時，您在業務中看到的很大一部分價格/組合，大約 21 個點實際上是由指數定價驅動的。

On the rest of the business, we did not see enough price/mix come through to cover -- fully cover the inflation in the quarter.

在其他業務中，我們沒有看到足夠的價格/組合來覆蓋——完全覆蓋本季度的通貨膨脹。

We subsequently have additional pricing to work with pass-through to the customers. And we would expect in the balance of the year, we'll continue to see improvement in the margin prospects for the business.

我們隨後有額外的定價來處理傳遞給客戶的問題。我們預計，在今年餘下時間，我們將繼續看到該業務的利潤率前景有所改善。

To your question about stranded costs. So as we -- just as a reminder, we decoupled the convenience business, primarily focused on convenience stores and other smaller convenience channels and put that into North America retail as part of the snacks business. And with that, we actually moved administrative structure as well. So there isn't really an overhang from stranded costs, all of that kind of went with the business. So this is a pretty fair representation of the underlying food service business margins.

關於擱淺成本的問題。因此，作為提醒，我們將便利業務分離，主要專注於便利店和其他較小的便利渠道，並將其作為零食業務的一部分進入北美零售。有了這個，我們實際上也移動了行政結構。因此，擱淺成本並沒有真正產生影響，所有這些都與業務有關。因此，這是對潛在食品服務業務利潤率的相當公平的代表。

Okay. So some of this is just the math of flour prices going up, you get the dollar profits, but it's profit neutral. And the rest is really just going to be catching up to inflation, I guess, in the non-flour milling piece? Is that a good way to say that.

好的。因此，其中一些只是麵粉價格上漲的數學計算，您獲得了美元利潤，但利潤中性。其餘的真的只是要趕上通貨膨脹，我猜，在非麵粉加工中？是不是這樣說的好方法。

That is exactly the way I would put it. You've got it.

這正是我想說的。你明白了。

And Bryan, just to maybe put a finer point on that -- pricing going up for index pricing with no incremental profit dollars coming with it is actually margin negative for the segment in the quarter to the tune of about 200 basis points. So (inaudible) same margins which is obviously a big portion of -- you're seeing that flow through in this quarter.

布賴恩，也許只是為了更好地說明這一點——指數定價的價格上漲而沒有隨之而來的增量利潤，實際上該季度該部門的利潤率為負值，約為 200 個基點。所以（聽不清）相同的利潤率，這顯然是很大一部分——你在本季度看到了這種情況。

Our next question comes from Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge.

我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 Jonathan Feeney。

Two questions. First, I wanted to -- on the 14 -- digging on the 14% to 15% expected COGS inflation, could you comment, if you can any more, about how much of that is input costs relative to all the other structural inflationary things (inaudible)? Just a flavor for that? Is input cost the vast majority of that? Would be helpful.

兩個問題。首先，我想 - 在 14 日 - 挖掘 14% 到 15% 的預期銷貨成本通脹，如果可以的話，你能否評論一下，相對於所有其他結構性通脹因素，其中有多少是投入成本（聽不清）？只是為了那個味道？投入成本是其中的絕大部分嗎？會有幫助的。

My second question would be more broadly in the U.S. promotional levels, merchandising levels or if you want to use the syndicated data, something like 10 points off their pre-COVID normal. Do -- are retailers expecting they get back to that pre-COVID normal at some point?

我的第二個問題將更廣泛地涉及美國的促銷水平、商品銷售水平，或者你是否想使用聯合數據，比如比疫情前的正常水平低 10 個百分點。是否——零售商是否期望他們在某個時候恢復到 COVID 之前的正常狀態？

Well, let me start on the front part of the question, and then I'll hand the second part probably to Jon or Jeff. Just as you think about our call on modestly higher inflation, we're seeing a couple of things go on, but primarily it reflects the burden of higher labor, energy and transportation costs on our suppliers, in particular, on items in our COGS that have high conversion. So think about your value-added ingredients such as nuts, fruits, flavors, et cetera. So the pass-through impact of that.

好吧，讓我從問題的前半部分開始，然後我可能會將第二部分交給 Jon 或 Jeff。正如您認為我們呼籲適度提高通脹一樣，我們看到一些事情在繼續，但主要反映了我們供應商的勞動力、能源和運輸成本較高的負擔，特別是我們的 COGS 中的項目有很高的轉化率。所以想想你的增值成分，如堅果、水果、香料等。所以傳遞的影響。

Second is that we -- as we've been working our way through the quarter and on the expectation that we will see higher volume flow-through as a result of slight lower elasticities than expected. We've outstripped coverage in some areas. So we're actually buying out in the back of the year at -- and exposed to more spot market prices. So that -- those are the primary drivers as we think about it.

其次是我們——因為我們一直在努力度過這個季度，並期望由於彈性略低於預期，我們將看到更高的流量。我們在某些領域的覆蓋面已經超過了。因此，我們實際上是在今年年底買入——並暴露於更多的現貨市場價格。所以 - 這些是我們考慮的主要驅動因素。

And then just as a reminder, we started taking coverage positions at the turn of the calendar year for this year. And our coverage position is still reasonably strong relative to the spot prices. So we're effectively pretty in the money as you think about our coverage. So those are some of the critical things just as you think about the guidance and how we're thinking about the balance of the year on inflation. And then I'll let Jon or Jeff handle the second part of your question.

然後提醒一下，我們在今年的日曆年之交開始擔任報導職位。相對於現貨價格，我們的覆蓋頭寸仍然相當強勁。因此，當您考慮我們的覆蓋範圍時，我們實際上很賺錢。因此，正如您考慮指導方針以及我們如何考慮今年通脹平衡時一樣，這些都是一些關鍵的事情。然後我會讓 Jon 或 Jeff 處理你問題的第二部分。

Yes. Let me -- this is Jeff. Let me take that one. I think as I said at a conference a couple of weeks ago, we think the risk of promotions ramping up significantly over the next couple of quarters is quite low. And the reason is that you kind of have to believe 3 things to be true in order for -- to see a lot of promotions increase. The first, you'd have to think that this inflationary cycle were different than the ones we've seen before.

是的。讓我——這是傑夫。讓我拿那個。我認為正如我在幾週前的一次會議上所說的那樣，我們認為在接下來的幾個季度中，晉升的風險非常低。原因是你必須相信三件事是真實的，才能看到很多促銷活動的增加。首先，你必須認為這個通貨膨脹週期與我們以前看到的不同。

And I was running a business in the last inflationary cycle here at General Mills. And what we see is that there isn't really a sharp increase in promotions coming out of an inflationary cycle. So you have to think that the environment would be different.

我在通用磨坊的上一個通貨膨脹週期中經營一家企業。我們看到的是，通脹週期中的促銷活動並沒有真正大幅增加。所以你必須認為環境會有所不同。

The second thing is you have to believe the disruption in the supply chain are going to change significantly from where they are now. And the third is that you'd have to see COGS inflation not only decelerate, but also get to absolute deflation. And the fact is that I think you need all 3 of those things, we don't see any of those things as we see right now. We just increased our guidance on inflation a little bit. We've told you that supply chain disruptions remain high, elevated, they're about 2x what they were before the pandemic, even if they're below what they were a year ago. And then there's inflationary cycle as we see keep playing out. So -- but that's what we think. I mean that the risk is relatively low given what I just laid out.

第二件事是你必須相信供應鏈的中斷將與現在相比發生重大變化。第三是你必須看到 COGS 通脹不僅會減速，而且還會達到絕對通縮。事實上，我認為你需要所有這三樣東西，我們現在看不到任何這些東西。我們只是稍微提高了對通脹的指導。我們已經告訴過你，供應鏈中斷仍然很高，甚至是大流行之前的兩倍，即使它們低於一年前的水平。然後是通貨膨脹週期，正如我們所看到的那樣，它一直在發揮作用。所以——但這就是我們的想法。我的意思是，鑑於我剛剛列出的內容，風險相對較低。

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ken Zaslow。

Two questions. One is, what are your expectations for your innovation progression this year and next relative to the last 2 years?

兩個問題。一是，相對於過去 2 年，您對今年和明年的創新進展有何期望？

I would say in aggregate, we would expect our levels of innovation to roughly flow the same as they have in prior years. I would say the one exception to that would probably be our Pet business. Clearly, when you're capacity constrained innovating when you're capacity constraint is a little bit difficult. And so in pet, we would see our innovation weighted to the second half of the year, and we'll talk about that more in December. We're actually quite pleased with some of the innovation we see coming. A lot of it is on our established businesses and some of it some new products. But in Pet, I would say that we probably have more coming in the second half of the year than the first half of the year. But in general, the promotion -- the innovation timing is roughly similar.

我想說，總的來說，我們預計我們的創新水平將與前幾年大致相同。我想說的一個例外可能是我們的寵物業務。顯然，當你的能力受限時，在你的能力受限時進行創新是有點困難的。所以在寵物方面，我們會看到我們的創新權重在今年下半年，我們將在 12 月更多地討論這個問題。實際上，我們對即將到來的一些創新感到非常滿意。其中很大一部分是關於我們已建立的業務，其中一些是一些新產品。但在寵物方面，我想說我們下半年可能會比上半年更多。但總的來說，推廣——創新時機大致相似。

But you don't think that you'll accelerate given your supply constraints being a little bit -- I would have thought you would have told me your innovation will actually accelerate over the next 2 years, given all the things that have happened between the consumer and the -- but I hear what you're saying. I'm just curious.

但是你不認為你會加速，因為你的供應限制有點——我原以為你會告訴我你的創新實際上會在未來 2 年加速，考慮到在消費者和 - 但我聽到你在說什麼。我只是好奇。

And then my next question is as you go forward in a couple of years, can your gross profits expand if elasticity becomes what you think it's going to be and volumes don't kind of subside a little bit? Or do you truly need the volume -- operating leverage because that seems to be one of the points you pointed to as a key core reason for gross margin expansion. So I was just trying to get a little color on that, and I appreciate your time.

然後我的下一個問題是，隨著你幾年後的發展，如果彈性變成你認為的那樣，並且銷量不會有一點下降，你的毛利潤會擴大嗎？或者你真的需要數量——經營槓桿，因為這似乎是你指出的毛利率擴張的關鍵核心原因之一。所以我只是想對此有所了解，感謝您的寶貴時間。

Sure. Sure. I appreciate the question. This is Kofi. So I would just note. Our gross margins are down still relative to the pre-pandemic. So in fiscal '19, probably about 140 basis points or so and I think the goal for us during this inflationary period has really been to drive our HMM cost savings, which mean roughly 3% to 4%. And our price mix benefits from SRM to be enough to offset inflation. And I think actually, as we measure it, we have done a pretty good job of kind of covering the inflation with the combination of those 2 things.

當然。當然。我很欣賞這個問題。這是科菲。所以我只想注意。相對於大流行前，我們的毛利率仍然下降。所以在 19 財年，可能大約 140 個基點左右，我認為我們在這個通貨膨脹時期的目標確實是推動我們的 HMM 成本節約，這意味著大約 3% 到 4%。我們的價格組合受益於 SRM，足以抵消通貨膨脹。而且我認為實際上，當我們衡量它時，我們已經做得很好，通過結合這兩件事來掩蓋通貨膨脹。

The reason our gross margins are down versus that period is because of the cost of dealing with supply chain disruptions and the additional cost to operate and serve the business in this environment. So those costs, when the supply chain environment stabilized are the things that we would expect to be able to take out in relatively short order with targeted HMM and productivity actions as well as changes in our supply footprint. And that, I think, gives us confidence that as we step out of this environment, we will be able to get our gross margins back to sort of pre-pandemic levels in a more stable environment.

與那個時期相比，我們的毛利率下降的原因是處理供應鏈中斷的成本以及在這種環境下運營和服務業務的額外成本。因此，當供應鏈環境穩定時，這些成本是我們期望能夠通過有針對性的 HMM 和生產力行動以及我們供應足蹟的變化在相對較短的時間內消除的東西。我認為，這讓我們有信心，當我們走出這種環境時，我們將能夠在更穩定的環境中將我們的毛利率恢復到大流行前的水平。

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler。

You've mentioned consumers shifting back to more food at home as part of what's probably softening elasticities, but your organic growth in food service outpaced North America retail. And even going back a few years, I know there's some moving parts, maybe the comparisons aren't all perfect, but it looks like even against fiscal -- 1Q '20, it's growing faster. Is there -- is that driven by inflation and index pricing? Or is there just that much momentum in food service? Maybe help us reconcile just how strong the numbers look versus some of the very logical color about consumer shipping back to more at-home.

您提到消費者轉向更多的食物，這可能是彈性減弱的一部分，但您在食品服務方面的有機增長超過了北美零售業。甚至可以追溯到幾年前，我知道有一些活動部分，也許比較並不完美，但看起來即使與財政 - 20 年第一季度相比，它的增長速度也更快。是否存在——這是由通貨膨脹和指數定價驅動的嗎？還是食品服務有那麼大的發展勢頭？也許可以幫助我們調和這些數字看起來有多麼強大與一些關於消費者運送回更多家庭的非常合乎邏輯的色彩。

Michael, you're right in the sense that it is logical to assume that the food service will move in a different direction than with our retail business, given the trend at at-home consumption. But there are 2 things playing into this for the quarter and 1 thing playing over more generally.

邁克爾，你是對的，鑑於家庭消費的趨勢，假設食品服務將朝著與我們的零售業務不同的方向發展是合乎邏輯的。但是本季度有兩件事在發揮作用，而在更普遍的情況下，還有一件事情正在發揮作用。

In the quarter, remember, we have a lot of index pricing on bakery flour, which is -- which really inflates the sales number on our food service business. I mean, the accounting is right, but it just -- it makes it look higher than it would be otherwise. And so that really all of our growth this quarter in food service is a result of that index pricing. That's the first thing I would tell you.

請記住，在本季度，我們有很多烘焙麵粉的指數定價，這確實誇大了我們食品服務業務的銷售數字。我的意思是，會計是正確的，但它只是 - 它使它看起來比其他情況要高。因此，我們本季度在食品服務方面的所有增長實際上都是該指數定價的結果。這是我要告訴你的第一件事。

The second is that even given that, though, our food service business doesn't move in perfect correlation, inverse correlation with our retail business because we have a really big school business. And so we're not only servicing restaurants, we have a significant part that we sell cereal and yogurt and other baked goods through our education, and we're really, really good at that.

第二個是即使考慮到這一點，我們的食品服務業務並沒有完全相關，與我們的零售業務成反比，因為我們有一個非常大的學校業務。因此，我們不僅為餐館提供服務，我們還有很大一部分是通過我們的教育銷售麥片、酸奶和其他烘焙食品，我們真的非常擅長這一點。

And so that demand tends to be a little bit more inelastic. And so even though it may seem logical in the face of it, they have food service move inversely with retail, and point of fact, ours doesn't move perfectly that way for that reason, even if we take out of consideration the index pricing.

因此，這種需求往往更加缺乏彈性。因此，即使從表面上看這似乎是合乎邏輯的，他們的食品服務與零售業成反比，事實上，即使我們不考慮指數定價，我們的這種方式也不會完美地移動.

Okay. That's helpful. And then can I just follow up on -- you called out higher SG&A in Pet as one of the margin drivers or having an impact on margin. What maybe is behind that? I guess I'm just curious because if there's capacity constraints on 2 of the biggest pieces of that business, it wouldn't seem like it's higher marketing. Is it just a sort of a step-up in the G&A? Or what's behind the SG&A growth there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我可以繼續跟進 - 您將 Pet 中更高的 SG&A 作為利潤率驅動因素之一或對利潤率產生影響。這背後可能是什麼？我想我只是好奇，因為如果該業務的兩個最大部分存在容量限制，那麼它似乎不會是更高的營銷。這只是 G&A 的一種升級嗎？或者那裡的 SG&A 增長背後是什麼？

Yes. No, we've had, along with most of our retail businesses, modest increases in our spending behind data and analytics. So that would be a big chunk of, as you think about what's driving SG&A growth in the comp. That would be more of it. Obviously, we've maintained modest levels of increases in media as we step through, and we're trying to manage through the supply pressure on this business.

是的。不，我們與大多數零售業務一樣，在數據和分析方面的支出略有增加。因此，當您考慮推動 SG&A 增長的因素時，這將是很大一部分。那會更多。顯然，當我們逐步完成時，我們一直保持適度的媒體增長水平，並且我們正在努力應對該業務的供應壓力。

And Michael, the one other thing is you've got now a full quarter of the Tyson business that we acquired last year. So there's a bit of step-up in SG&A just by the math of adding an incremental business there.

邁克爾，另一件事是你現在擁有我們去年收購的泰森公司四分之一的業務。因此，僅通過在其中添加增量業務的數學計算，SG&A 就有了一些進步。

Okay. I think we're going to go ahead and wrap up there. I appreciate everyone's time and good questions. And please feel free to follow up over the course of the day with the IR team, and we look forward to being in touch next quarter.

好的。我想我們將繼續前進並在那裡結束。我感謝大家的時間和好問題。請隨時與 IR 團隊跟進，我們期待在下個季度與我們保持聯繫。

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。