Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia second quarter 2024 earnings release. My name is George, I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note that this conference is being recorded (Operator Instructions) And I hand the call over to your host today, Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

你好。歡迎來到加利西亞金融集團 2024 年第二季財報發布。我叫喬治，我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意，本次會議正在錄音（操作員說明），我今天將電話轉交給東道主投資者關係主管 Pablo Firvida 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, George. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a concise introduction and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US federal securities laws and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

謝謝你，喬治。早上好，歡迎參加本次電話會議。我先簡單介紹一下，然後再回答大家的問題。本次電話會議期間發表的一些聲明將屬於美國聯邦證券法安全港條款含義內的前瞻性聲明，並受到可能導致實際結果與所表達的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, the Argentine economy recorded a 3.9% year-over-year contraction during June. The year-to-date terms, the economic downturn reached to 3.2%. During the second quarter, the primary surplus amounted to 0.5% of GDP, which compares to a 0.6% primary deficit in the second quarter of the previous year. This result was explained by the 257.6% year-over-year increase of revenues, whereas primary spending rose 165.2%. The financial surplus amounted to 0.2% during the second quarter.

根據月度經濟活動指標，6月份阿根廷經濟年減3.9%。今年迄今，經濟下滑幅度達3.2%。第二季度，基本盈餘佔GDP的0.5%，而去年第二季基本赤字為0.6%。這一結果是由於收入同比增長 257.6%，而主要支出增長 165.2%。第二季財政盈餘為0.2%。

The national consumer price index recorded a 79.8% increase during the first half of 2024 and kept each decreasing trend from monthly figures of 25.5% recorded in December 2023 to [54%] in last July, accumulating 87% in the first seven months of 2024. The Central Bank devalued the exchange rate by 54.2% on December 13 last year. A 118.3% variation after which the FX has maintained a 2% monthly quarterly impact, which persists to this day.

2024年上半年全國居民消費物價指數上漲79.8%，並維持逐月下降趨勢，從2023年12月的25.5%下降到去年7月的[54%]，2024年前7個月累計下降87% 。去年12月13日央行將匯率貶值54.2%。在 118.3% 的變化之後，外匯保持了 2% 的月度季度影響，這種影響一直持續到今天。

The exchange rate averaged ARS903.8 per dollar in June 2024, implying a 72.5% devaluation year over year terms. The overnight repo rate remained the reference monetary policy interest rate during the second quarter of 2024 after having replaced the leak rate back in December 2023. So far this year, the Monetary Authority lowered the policy interest rate five times from 133% to its current 40%. It is also worth mentioning that as of July 22, the Central Bank ceased overnight reverse repo operations. The fiscal liquidity bills or lessees issued by the Treasury have been defined as the new liquidity regulation instruments.

2024 年 6 月，美元平均匯率為 903.8 阿根廷比索，年減 72.5%。隔夜回購利率自2023年12月取代滲漏利率後，2024年第二季仍為參考貨幣政策利率。今年以來，金管局已五次下調政策利率，從133%降至目前的40%。另外值得一提的是，截至7月22日，央行停止隔夜逆回購操作。財政部發行的財政流動性票據或承租人被定義為新的流動性監管工具。

In June 2024, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days stood at 33.4% up 59.5 percentage points below the average for June 2023. Currently rates for term deposits stand at an average of around 38%. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged [ARS52.7 trillion] in June, increasing 24.2% during the quarter and 141.3% in the last 12 months. And deposits in pesos rose 23.3% during the quarter and 103.3% year over year, while peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 24.5% during the second quarter and 183.1% year over year times.

2024年6月，以比索計價的私部門最長59天定期存款的平均利率為33.4%，比2023年6月的平均利率低59.5個百分點。目前定期存款的平均利率約為 38%。6 月私部門比索存款平均為 [52.7 兆阿根廷比索]，本季成長 24.2%，過去 12 個月成長 141.3%。以比索計價的存款在第二季度增長了 23.3%，同比增長 103.3%；以比索計價的交易存款在第二季度增長了 24.5%，同比增長了 183.1%。

Private sector dollar-denominated deposits averaged $17.7 billion in June, increasing 6.5% during the quarter and 14.6% when compared to June 2023. Peso-denominated loans to private sector average ARS25.7 trillion in June, increasing 38.6% in the quarter and 169.1% when compared to a year before. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $6.4 billion, recording a 47.7% expansion during the quarter and a 66.2% rise when compared to June 2023.

6 月私部門美元計價存款平均為 177 億美元，本季成長 6.5%，與 2023 年 6 月相比成長 14.6%。6 月以比索計價的私部門貸款平均為 25.7 兆澳元，季增 38.6%，年增 169.1%。私部門以美元計價的貸款達 64 億美元，本季成長 47.7%，與 2023 年 6 月相比成長 66.2%。

Turning now to the results for the quarter. Net income attributable to Grupo Financiero Galicia amounted to ARS409 billion, 90% higher from the year-ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS296 billion, from Naranja X for ARS81 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS12 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS10 billion. This profit representing a 9.7% annualized return on average assets and a 42.5% return on average shareholders' equity.

現在轉向本季的業績。Grupo Financiero Galicia 歸屬淨利潤達 4,090 億澳元，較去年同期增長 90%，主要得益於加利西亞銀行利潤 2,960 億澳元、Naranja X 810 億澳元、加利西亞資產管理公司 120 億澳元以及加利西亞·塞古羅斯(Galicia Seguros) 的獎金為100 億阿根廷比索。此利潤代表平均資產年化報酬率為 9.7%，平均股東權益報酬率為 42.5%。

Going to Banco Galicia, net income for the quarter was 54% higher than the year-ago quarter, mainly due to a 34% increase of the operating income, partially offset by a 165% increase of the income tax. Net operating income increased 24% primarily due to a 46% higher net interest income and a 72% higher net result from financial instruments, offset by a 69% decrease in the results from gold and foreign currency quotation differences.

至於加利西亞銀行，本季淨利比去年同期成長 54%，主要是因為營業收入成長 34%，部分被所得稅成長 165% 所抵銷。淨營業收入成長 24%，主要是由於淨利息收入成長 46%，金融工具淨利成長 72%，但被黃金和外幣報價差異業績下降 69% 所抵銷。

Average interest-earning assets reached ARS8.6 trillion, 18% lower than in the same quarter of 2023, mainly due to a 42% decrease of the portfolio of government securities in pesos and a 33% reduction in the average balance of loans in pesos, offset by 92% higher volume of other interest-earning assets in pesos. In the same period, its yield decreased 33 basis points, reaching 75.2%.

平均生息資產達8.6兆阿根廷披索，比2023年同季下降18%，主要是由於比索政府證券投資組合減少42%，比索貸款平均餘額減少33% ，被以比索計的其他生息資產增加92%所抵消。同期，其收益率下降33個基點，達75.2%。

Interest-bearing liabilities decreased 29% from June 2023 amounting to ARS6.1 trillion, mainly due to a 56% decrease in time deposits in pesos. During this period, its cost decreased 25.7 percentage points to 30.9%. Net interest income increased 46% from the second quarter of last year, although interest income fell 22% due to decreases of 31% of interest on government securities, 26% on loans and other financing, and 46% on promissory notes. This was more than offset by a 61 drop of interest expenses due to a 67% lower interest on time deposits.

有息負債較 2023 年 6 月下降 29%，達 6.1 兆澳元，主要是因為比索定期存款減少 56%。在此期間，其成本下降了25.7個百分點至30.9%。淨利息收入較去年第二季增加 46%，但由於政府證券利息減少 31%、貸款和其他融資利息減少 26%、本票利息減少 46%，利息收入下降 22%。由於定期存款利息下降 67%，利息支出下降 61%，足以抵銷此影響。

Net fee income decreased 6% from June 2023, mainly due to a 25% lower profit from fees on bundles of products and of 21% on deposit accounts, partially offset by a 60 -- 78% increase of foreign trade fees. Net income from financial instruments increased 72% due to a 414% higher result from government securities, offset by a 83% lower result from private sector securities. Gains from gold and FX quotation differences was 69% lower from the year-ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading.

淨費用收入較 2023 年 6 月下降 6%，主要是由於產品捆綁費用利潤下降 25%，存款帳戶費用利潤下降 21%，但被外貿費用增加 60% 至 78% 部分抵銷。由於政府證券業績成長 414%，金融工具淨利成長 72%，但被私部門證券業績下降 83% 所抵銷。黃金和外匯報價差異帶來的收益比去年同期下降了 69%，其中包括外匯交易的結果。

Other operating income decreased 23% in the quarter, while provision for loan losses increased 49%. Personnel expenses were 30% higher than in the second quarter of 2023 due to a 4% increase in staff, salary increase agreements with the unions, and an increase in provisions for personal compensations and rewards. Administrative expenses were 18% higher as a consequence of a 28% higher taxes and a 37%, higher expenses for maintenance and repayment of goods and IT. Other operating expenses decreased 7% due to a 33% lower turnover tax and the income tax charge was 165% higher than in the second quarter of the previous year due to higher operating results.

該季度其他營業收入下降 23%，而貸款損失撥備則增加 49%。由於員工人數增加4%、與工會達成加薪協議以及個人薪資和獎勵規定增加，人員費用比2023年第二季高出30%。由於稅收增加 28%，以及商品和 IT 維護和償還費用增加 37%，行政費用增加了 18%。由於流轉稅降低 33%，其他營運費用下降 7%；由於營運績效提高，所得稅費用比去年第二季高出 165%。

Advanced financing to the private sector reached ARS5.4 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 7% in the last 12 months with peso financing decreasing 20% and dollar denominated financing growing 103%. Net exposure to public sector decreased 15% year over year because of lower holdings of Leliq, partially offset by an increase of securities adjusted by CER at amortized cost and of government securities in pesos at fair value through other comprehensive income. Excluding the exposure to Central Bank repos, relief and leliq, net exposure represented 37% of total assets compared to 23% as of the end of the second quarter of 2023.

截至本季末，私部門預付款達到 5.4 兆阿根廷比索，在過去 12 個月內下降 7%，其中比索融資減少 20%，美元計價融資成長 103%。由於 Leliq 持有量減少，公共部門的淨風險敞口同比下降 15%，但部分被按攤銷成本按 CER 調整的證券和按公允價值計入其他綜合收益的比索政府證券的增加所抵消。不包括央行回購、救濟和leliq的曝險，淨曝險佔總資產的37%，而截至2023年第二季末這一比例為23%。

Deposits reached ARS8.3 trillion, 24% lower than a year before, mainly due to a 58% decrease on time deposits in pesos. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 11.9%, 12 basis points higher than at the end of the year ago quarter. And the market share of deposits from the private sector was 10.5%, 57 basis points higher than in the same quarter of 2023. The bank's Liquid assets represented 80.1% of transactional deposits and 55.7% of total deposits compared to 104.9% and 65.9%, respectively from a year before.

存款達8.3兆阿根廷比索，較上年減少24%，主要是因為比索定期存款減少58%。該銀行預計私部門貸款市佔率為11.9%，比去年同期末高出12個基點。私部門存款市佔率為10.5%，較2023年同季提高57個基點。該銀行的流動資產佔交易性存款的 80.1% 和總存款的 55.7%，而去年同期分別為 104.9% 和 65.9%。

As regards asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 1.98%, recording a 67 basis points improvement as compared to two point 65% of the second quarter of the prior year. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 160.3%, down 48 basis points from the 160.8% recorded a year ago. As of the end of June 2024, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 28.8%, increasing 512 basis points from the end of the second quarter of 2023, while tier one ratio was 27.8%, up 600 basis points during the same period.

資產品質方面，本季不良貸款佔融資總額的比率為1.98%，較去年第二季的65%增加67個基點。同時，補貼覆蓋率達160.3%，比去年同期的160.8%下降48個基點。截至2024年6月末，該行監理總資本率為28.8%，較2023年第二季末上升512個基點，一級資本適足率為27.8%，同期上升600個基點。

In summary, in a challenging and volatile political and macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity, and solvency metrics at healthy levels and to improve the level of profitability. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.

總而言之，在充滿挑戰和動盪的政治和宏觀環境中，Grupo Financiero Galicia 能夠將資產品質、流動性和償付能力指標保持在健康水平，並提高獲利水平。我們現在準備好回答您可能提出的問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America.

埃內斯托·加比隆多，美國銀行。

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Pablo and team. Congrats for the results. My first question will be on loan growth and asset quality. We notice an important deterioration in Naranja's credit card business. So just wondering how do you see the asset quality for Naranja for this year in terms of NPLs and cost of risk going forward, especially as we are starting to see an expansion of the credit business?

謝謝。嗨，早上好，巴勃羅和團隊。祝賀結果。我的第一個問題是關於貸款成長和資產品質。我們注意到 Naranja 的信用卡業務嚴重惡化。因此，我想知道您如何看待 Naranja 今年在不良貸款和未來風險成本方面的資產質量，特別是在我們開始看到信貸業務擴張的情況下？

My second question is if you can elaborate a little bit more on the ongoing position that the bank executed with the Central Bank related to the port, what were the implications into the P&L and balance sheet? And also, you can talk a little bit about the time line and implications of the repo then proposing the Central Bank, and also what was related to this? Can you remind us how much of your position on securities is linked to inflation and how they have been classified your balance sheet? And my last question is on your ROE guidance for the year, if we could assume a sustainable ROE above 20% in the next year? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是，您是否可以詳細說明銀行與中央銀行執行的與港口相關的持續立場，這對損益表和資產負債表有何影響？另外，您可以談談回購協議的時間安排和影響，然後提議央行，以及與此相關的是什麼？您能否提醒我們，您的證券部位在多大程度上與通貨膨脹相關，以及它們是如何對您的資產負債表進行分類的？我的最後一個問題是關於今年的 ROE 指導，我們是否可以假設明年的 ROE 可持續超過 20%？謝謝。

Okay. Thank you, Ernesto. I will try to answer everything. If I forget something, please let me know. First, loan growth. We have -- we were saying in previous calls than we were forecasting a real loan growth to take place once monthly inflation goes below 5% on a monthly basis. It does appear and we saw real growth in loans, slight or small in May, more important in June, and we are already seeing a good demand for July, August and for the rest of the year. So at the beginning or let's say, last quarter, we were thinking that loans could be growing at around 30% in real terms for the full year. Now we are revising a little bit up that number perhaps in the range between 35% and 40%. Of course, many things are moving but this is our current expectation.

好的。謝謝你，埃內斯托。我會盡力回答一切。如果我忘了什麼，請告訴我。一是貸款成長。我們在之前的電話會議中說過，我們預測一旦每月通膨率低於 5%，實際貸款就會成長。它確實出現了，我們看到了貸款的實際增長，五月略有或小幅增長，六月更為重要，而且我們已經看到七月、八月和今年剩餘時間的良好需求。因此，在一開始或比方說上個季度，我們認為全年貸款實際成長率可能在 30% 左右。現在我們正在稍微提高這個數字，範圍可能在 35% 到 40% 之間。當然，很多事情都在發生變化，但這是我們目前的期望。

In the case of Naranja X, we also saw a big increase in loan demand. In the case, demand was something like 18%. In the case of Naranja, 21%. One thing that is important to keep in mind is that as you originate new loans, you have to provision a portion of that, roughly 1% of that. So part of the increase in the cost of risk is due to the increase in the loan book. Having said that, our at the bank level, the NPL, stands at roughly 2%. We don't see any, I would say, deterioration, of course, with the growth in the loan book. Cost of risk should be growing slightly.

就 Naranja X 而言，我們也看到貸款需求大幅增加。在這種情況下，需求約為 18%。以納蘭賈為例，為 21%。需要記住的一件重要事情是，當您發放新貸款時，您必須撥備其中的一部分，大約是其中的 1%。因此，風險成本增加的一部分是由於貸款帳簿的增加。話雖如此，我們銀行層級的不良貸款率約為 2%。當然，我想說，隨著貸款規模的成長，我們沒有看到任何惡化。風險成本應該會略有成長。

In the case of Naranja where asset quality was something like 4.3%. Basically, some deterioration in personal loans. The dynamics are even more significant at the bank, they have been growing deposits a lot from very low levels because they are, I'd say, pretty new in taking some of the savings and term deposits in. And they lend a lot. And therefore, with the growth in the our loan book, also the cost of risk increased.

以 Naranja 為例，其資產品質約為 4.3%。基本上，個人貸款有所惡化。銀行的動態更為重要，他們的存款從非常低的水平大幅增長，因為我想說，他們在吸收一些儲蓄和定期存款方面是相當新的。他們借出很多錢。因此，隨著我們貸款規模的成長，風險成本也隨之增加。

But going forward, we don't see any deterioration in the asset quality. And of course, the cost of risk would be more in line with the expected losses and the growth in the loan book. And so that was loan growth and asset quality differentiating between the bank and Naranja X.

但展望未來，我們認為資產品質不會有任何惡化。當然，風險成本將更符合預期損失和貸款帳面的成長。這就是銀行和 Naranja X 之間貸款成長和資產品質的區別。

In the case of in this issue with the Central Bank and the CMB regarding the exercise of the put, in the first quarter, we had it provision ARS46 billion. That was the amount that the Central Bank and the CNV was saying that in it was the basis that they suffer multiply by two. Basically, we built the cushion because the difference of the amount of the exercise of that total was ARS23 billion. So we had a -- we made a provision of ARS46 billion. In some time during the second quarter, the central bank, they reached from our account at the Central Bank, ARS28.8 billion, so let's say, ARS29 billion.

就本次與中央銀行和招商銀行有關行使看跌期權的問題而言，我們在第一季撥備了 460 億澳元。這就是中央銀行和 CNV 所說的金額，這也是他們遭受兩倍損失的基礎。基本上，我們建立了緩衝，因為總運動量的差異為 230 億ARS。所以我們準備了 460 億阿根廷比索。在第二季的某個時候，央行從我們在央行的帳戶中提取了 288 億澳元，也就是說，290 億澳元。

That was a kind of a preliminary gesture of goodwill from part of the long haul. If you're saying your damage because of our exercise of the put was ARS23 billion, that amount adjusted by an interest rate that was at [28.8] and we go one in the process of defending and waiting for the CMB to have their final ruling. So today we have an excess provision of roughly ARS17 billion. But of course, this issue is still open.

這是從長遠來看的初步善意姿態。如果您說由於我們行使看跌期權而造成的損失為 230 億澳元，該金額按 [28.8] 的利率調整，我們正在辯護並等待 CMB 做出最終裁決。因此，今天我們有大約 170 億裡亞爾的超額準備金。但當然，這個問題仍然懸而未決。

And then you ask about the puts we have. And if we sold them, if I'm not wrong, Ernesto?

然後你詢問我們擁有的看跌期權。如果我們賣掉它們，沒記錯的話，埃內斯托？

Yes, how is the exposure after the puts and how it was before?

是的，看跌期權之後和之前的暴露情況如何？

Yes. We sold all the puts to the Central Bank. We received a ARS16.6 billion, that was in July. And the net result of that was in the order of half of that, because we were accruing a part of the of the (inaudible) we paid on those puts, they were many puts. And so we so we have no longer any puts against the Central Bank we sold them, there will be a positive result in July.

是的。我們將所有看跌期權賣給了中央銀行。那是在 7 月份，我們收到了 166 億阿根廷比索。最終的結果大約是一半，因為我們在這些看跌期權上支付了（聽不清楚）的一部分，它們是許多看跌期權。因此，我們不再持有任何針對央行的看跌期權，我們出售它們，七月將會有積極的結果。

And then our ROE guidance. So far the year, it is much better in terms of results, ROEs, and expected at the beginning of the year. This sits on the first half, ROE stands closer to 37%. We are forecasting lower ROEs for the third quarter and the fourth one. But with this first half, we're seeing that we'll end up between 25% and 30% for the full year. Going forward let's say, for next year, of course, the -- I'm sorry, one comment, and this is without considering the positive effect of the purchase of HSBC Argentina, that is the standalone business.

然後是我們的 ROE 指導。今年到目前為止，無論是業績、股本回報率還是年初的預期，都好得多。上半年，ROE 接近 37%。我們預計第三季和第四季的淨資產收益率將會下降。但從上半年來看，我們預計全年的成長率將在 25% 到 30% 之間。展望未來，當然，對於明年，--對不起，有一點評論，這是沒有考慮到購買匯豐銀行阿根廷業務的積極影響，即獨立業務。

Once the transaction is approved and the numbers are incorporated to our numbers, of course, there will be many, many changes. And for next year, again, thinking of standalone business, it should be in the range between 20% and 25%. Again, many things are going to happen in the meantime, but that is the current guidance information, projections, and estimates that we have.

一旦交易獲得批准，並且這些數字併入我們的數字中，當然，將會有很多很多的變化。明年，考慮到獨立業務，它應該在 20% 到 25% 之間。同樣，許多事情會同時發生，但這就是我們目前掌握的指導資訊、預測和估計。

Excellent, Pablo, thank you very much. Just a quick follow-up in terms of the overall securities, can you remind us how is your position on securities linked to inflation and how are you classify them? I don't know Is if they are for home for sale or for home activity?

太棒了，巴勃羅，非常感謝你。關於整體證券的快速跟進，您能否提醒我們您對證券的持倉與通膨有何關聯以及您如何對它們進行分類？我不知道它們是用於出售還是用於家庭活動？

Yes, in -- actually in the press release, we have a chart, the lease exposure to the public sector. And there, you will see the bonds that are accounted -- available for sale or at market price at a cost plus yield. And there was mark to market that we're -- the result is shown in other comprehensive income evaluation. And most of the bonds in pesos adjusted by CPI are cost plus yield, while the rest are mark to market in general.

是的，實際上在新聞稿中，我們有一張圖表，顯示了公共部門的租賃風險。在那裡，您將看到已記帳的債券—可供出售或以市場價格以成本加收益率計算。我們按市場定價－結果顯示在其他綜合收入評估中。而且大部分以CPI調整的比索債券都是成本加收益率，其餘的一般都是以市價計價。

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much, Pablo.

好的，完美。非常感謝你，巴布羅。

You're welcome, Ernesto.

不客氣，埃內斯托。

Brian Flores, Citibank.

布萊恩·弗洛雷斯，花旗銀行。

Hey, Pablo and team, thank you for the opportunity. I wanted to ask, [mid term] growth, where should we see the focus on growth? Should it be across the board? Should it be more on personal loans?

嘿，巴布羅和團隊，謝謝你們給我這個機會。我想問，[中期]成長，我們該把成長的重點放在哪裡？應該一刀切嗎？應該更多用於個人貸款嗎？

If you could elaborate a bit on where are you seeing like the best recoveries in terms of demand? I know generally it begins on the corporate side, but then it filters out to consumer. If you could expand a bit on the dynamics that you are seeing, that would be very good for us.

您能否詳細說明您認為需求復甦最好的地方在哪裡？我知道通常它是從企業方面開始的，但隨後它會滲透到消費者方面。如果您能稍微擴展一下您所看到的動態，那對我們來說非常有好處。

On my second question, I wanted to ask on NIMS. I know this is a very hard question, but I know I am yields are decreasing, but also these are obviously helping you on interest expenses too. So wanted to ask you when should we see NIMS stabilizing? That would be very helpful.

關於第二個問題，我想在NIMS上問。我知道這是一個非常困難的問題，但我知道我的收益率正在下降，但這些顯然也對您的利息支出有幫助。所以想問一下我們什麼時候可以看到 NIMS 穩定下來？這將非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, Brian. Well, as you said, in terms of the loan growth, it began with big corporates. Last year, in the first quarter in dollars, there was demanding dollars. Now more pesos as the interest rates went down significantly. We are also seeing some loan demand from SMEs on the agricultural sector, although the agricultural sector have some seasonality. Last individuals, we are seeing some rebound in personal loans and credit card financing. Of course, this is just about now when we look at Naraja X, individuals' credit cards and personal loans.

嘿，布萊恩。嗯，正如你所說，就貸款成長而言，它是從大企業開始的。去年第一季度，美元需求旺盛。現在，隨著利率大幅下降，比索更多了。我們也看到中小企業對農業領域的一些貸款需求，儘管農業領域有一定的季節性。最後個人，我們看到個人貸款和信用卡融資出現一些反彈。當然，當我們看看 Naraja X、個人信用卡和個人貸款時，這只是現在的情況。

We also launched two or three months ago, a mortgage loans, this is a product that will begin to appear in our balance sheet. And because it has a lag between the when client request the loan, when it's finally granted, and when they purchase the apartment and then the notary makes all the paperwork.

兩三個月前我們也推出了抵押貸款，這是一個將開始出現在我們資產負債表中的產品。因為從客戶申請貸款到最終批准貸款，再到他們購買公寓，然後公證人完成所有文書工作，之間存在著一定的滯後性。

In the past we saw that they reached to roughly 6% of our total loan book. In this case, perhaps it could get to the same level in one year. And so this is how we see a growth in the loan book. In terms of NIMS, as you said, they are going down from very, very high levels. It NIMS include, of course, in the yield on all our interest earning assets that include government paper, central bank paper, and our loans to private sector. We think there will be a further reduction that we see as a very gradual, because now as we don't have the obligation to pay a minimum interest rate on time deposits, we have more flexibility to set the time deposits rate.

過去我們看到它們約占我們貸款總額的 6%。這樣的話，或許一年之內就能達到同樣的水準。這就是我們看到貸款帳簿成長的方式。就 NIMS 而言，正如您所說，它們正在從非常非常高的水平下降。當然，NIMS 包括我們所有生息資產的收益率，其中包括政府票據、中央銀行票據以及我們向私營部門提供的貸款。我們認為將會進一步降低，我們認為這是一個非常漸進的過程，因為現在我們沒有義務支付定期存款的最低利率，因此我們可以更靈活地設定定期存款利率。

Also, as monthly inflation is going down today and the breakdown between deposits with costs, basically a time deposits or remunerated accounts against the transactional accounts improves for our site. Basically, as inflation is lower, the opportunity cost of leaving money in saving account or checking account at zero interest goes down. So the breakdown and the average cost of funding improves for us.

此外，隨著今天每月通貨膨脹率下降以及存款與成本之間的細分，基本上，針對交易帳戶的定期存款或有酬帳戶對我們的網站有所改善。基本上，隨著通貨膨脹率較低，以零利率將錢存入儲蓄帳戶或支票帳戶的機會成本就會下降。因此，我們的細分和平均融資成本有所改善。

So when we focus in just in the internalization with the private sector, basically, the deposit base and loan book, we can see names at levels of 27%, 25%. And perhaps, we will remain or dose levels or gradually go down, but we don't see any significant compression in going to the levels we saw. For example, in 2017, 2018, we saw names at around 15%, 18% in this case, we think it will take a little bit more time.

因此，當我們關注私營部​​門的內部化時，基本上是存款基礎和貸款帳簿，我們可以看到 27%、25% 的水平。也許我們會保持劑量水平或逐漸下降，但我們沒有看到任何顯著壓縮達到我們所看到的水平。例如，在2017年、2018年，我們看到名字在15%、18%左右，在這種情況下，我們認為這需要更多的時間。

Probably, if I may just a quick follow-up. Regarding coverage, I think the level that we are seeing, it is a bit low. And as you were saying, you have intention to continue accelerating. So do you think we should see a higher pickup in terms of cost of risk first before normalizing that dimension or do you think you know, I mean, we shouldn't see a big spike in terms of increasing the coverage? And then if I may, just a final one. you mentioned the acquisition of HSBC Argentina. When do you see this like happening officially? Or when do you think we should see or hear news from the central banks' approval? Thank you.

也許吧，如果我可以快速跟進的話。關於覆蓋率，我認為我們所看到的水平有點低。正如你所說，你打算繼續加速。那麼，您認為在使該維度正常化之前，我們應該先看到風險成本出現更高的上升，還是您認為您知道，我的意思是，我們不應該看到在增加覆蓋範圍方面出現大幅上升？如果可以的話，我想講最後一個。您提到了對阿根廷匯豐銀行的收購。你什麼時候會看到這種事情正式發生？或者您認為我們什麼時候應該看到或聽到央行批准的消息？謝謝。

Okay, well, we are comfortable with the coverage levels. Actually, when you look at a longer period of time, they are at, I'll say, higher levels than they used to be. The coverage comes from models with expected losses. But really, we don't see material differences. They are actually -- in the case of the bank, it was almost flat at 160% from one year ago.

好的，我們對覆蓋範圍感到滿意。事實上，當你觀察更長的一段時間時，我會說，它們的水平比以前更高。覆蓋範圍來自具有預期損失的模型。但實際上，我們沒有看到實質差異。事實上，就銀行而言，與一年前相比，它幾乎持平於 160%。

In the case of [HSBC], we don't have any particular dates from the Central Bank. We think it could be in the next couple of months, either September or October. So the consolidation of numbers should occur likely in the fourth quarter. And in mid 2025, perhaps the all the businesses could be merged and we wouldn't have one bank, one insurance company, one asset in management company.

就[匯豐銀行]而言，我們沒有來自中央銀行的任何具體日期。我們認為可能會在接下來的幾個月內，即九月或十月。因此，數位整合可能會在第四季發生。到 2025 年中期，也許所有業務都可以合併，我們就不會擁有一家銀行、一家保險公司、一項資產管理公司。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Marina Mertens, Latin Securities.

Marina Mertens，拉丁證券。

Hi, good morning, Pablo. So I have a question regarding Naranja X, which has significantly contributed to this quarter's results and ROE. And so how do you plan to leverage on its performance in your overall strategy? And also, which were the main driver of behind this growth in both loans and deposits?

嗨，早上好，巴勃羅。所以我有一個關於 Naranja X 的問題，它對本季度的業績和 ROE 做出了重大貢獻。那麼您計劃如何在整體策略中利用其績效？此外，貸款和存款成長的主要動力是什麼？

Hi, Marina. Naranja X have a great a quarter, basically because the interest rate environment change dramatically. First, due to the pretty recent ability of Naranja X to take deposits, their cost of funding went down. In the past when they were not allowed to take deposits, they depended on a market in the capital markets basically or lines from different banks. So now with their own deposits, their cost of funding went down. And in particular, with with interest rates going down, their cost of funding went down much faster than the impact on their loan book. Right now to give you some sense of numbers, Naranja X is paying roughly 40% on the deposits, and they are charging in 100% in personal loans and 80% -- which are big numbers now, perhaps this 82% or so on a credit card financing.

嗨，瑪麗娜。Naranja X 本季表現出色，主要是因為利率環境發生了巨大變化。首先，由於 Naranja X 最近具有吸收存款的能力，他們的融資成本下降了。過去不允許吸收存款時，他們基本上依賴資本市場的市場或不同銀行的額度。因此，現在有了自己的存款，他們的融資成本就下降了。特別是，隨著利率下降，他們的融資成本下降速度遠遠快於對貸款帳簿的影響。現在讓你對數字有一些了解，Naranja X 支付大約 40% 的存款，他們收取 100% 的個人貸款和 80%——現在這是一個很大的數字，也許是 82% 左右。

So in I would say they are now seeing the results of their investments, the they did in previous years actually, in the last two years, their profitability wasn't very good because they were investing in all this capabilities. Now now that we are a digital pure digital company. They open hundred thousands of accounts and every month. They see double digit growth rates in deposits and loans. So they are doing very well. And that is I would say why Naranja is doing so well. Going forward, NIMS should compress a little bit as the stock of loans begin to yield lower interest rates. But we see a very good year for Naranja X.

因此，我想說，他們現在看到了投資的結果，就像他們前幾年所做的那樣，實際上，在過去兩年中，他們的盈利能力不是很好，因為他們正在投資所有這些能力。現在我們是一家數位化的純數位化公司。他們每個月都會開設數十萬個帳戶。他們預計存款和貸款將以兩位數的速度成長。所以他們做得很好。這就是我想說的為什麼納蘭賈做得這麼好。展望未來，隨著貸款存量開始產生較低的利率，NIMS 應該會稍微壓縮。但我們看到 Naranja X 度過了非常好的一年。

Again, thank you.

再次感謝您。

You are welcome, Marina.

不客氣，瑪麗娜。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Carlos Gomez-Lopez, HSBC

卡洛斯·戈麥斯-洛佩茲，匯豐銀行

Hello, Pablo, good morning and congratulations on the results and two questions. The first one, maybe you said this before, but could you give us your economic forecast for '24 and '25, and in particular inflation rate and the exchange rate?

你好，巴勃羅，早安，恭喜你的結果和兩個問題。第一個，也許您以前說過，但是您能給我們一下您對'24和'25的經濟預測，特別是通貨膨脹率和匯率嗎？

Second, could you perhaps in simple terms explain to us how you have managed your bond portfolio differently from your peers? Because we have seen quite significant results in securities for the three large banks and where does that come from? And how should we expect that to evolve in the coming quarters? Thank you.

其次，您能否簡單地向我們解釋一下您如何以與同業不同的方式管理您的債券投資組合？因為我們看到三大銀行在證券上取得了相當顯著的成績，而這個成績又是從何而來？我們應該預期未來幾季會如何發展？謝謝。

Hey, Carlos. Regarding the main macroeconomic variables, I would say that being inflation and GDP. In our last forecast on inflation from our recent developments was 130% for this year. Perhaps I would say, between 125% and 130% in the year revising that according to the different monthly readings, we are forecasting and 40% for year 2025. Of course, these numbers are a moving target, but these are the current figures. In terms of GDP, we see a contraction from for this year of a 3.5% and we see a growth of 5% for next year.

嘿，卡洛斯。關於主要的宏觀經濟變量，我想說的是通貨膨脹和GDP。根據我們最近的發展，我們上次預測今年的通膨率為 130%。也許我會說，根據不同的月度讀數，我們預測今年的成長率為 125% 到 130%，2025 年為 40%。當然，這些數字是一個不斷變化的目標，但這些是當前的數字。就GDP而言，我們預計今年將收縮3.5%，明年將成長5%。

In terms of FX, there is the most difficult question, because we are thinking in all these FX restrictions, the [sipo], as we call it, would be eliminated sometime this year. And that will change the numbers for the end of this year and also for next year. But if I had to tell you what we see for next year is basically to keep devaluation and inflation at the same level, that would be to keep the same exchange rate.

就外匯而言，這是最困難的問題，因為我們認為在所有這些外匯限制中，我們所說的[sipo]將在今年某個時候被取消。這將改變今年年底和明年的數字。但如果我必須告訴你，我們明年的預期基本上是保持貶值和通膨在同一水平，那就是保持相同的匯率。

Then regarding the elimination of the Seaport for this FX restrictions in, there are different opinions that different estimates. Some economists are speaking about before the midterm elections of next year. Others is in Q1 next year, not so close to the elections. We are still thinking that perhaps could happen before year end and for different reasons. And what we always say is that the current Ministery of Economy and also many members of the Central Bank in the DNA are traders and they don't anticipate moves. So that's something that is very important to keep in mind.

那麼對於取消海港對於外匯的限制，大家有不同的看法，不同的估計。一些經濟學家正在談論明年中期選舉之前的情況。其他的則在明年第一季度，距離選舉不太近。我們仍然認為這可能會在年底之前發生，並且出於不同的原因。我們總是說，現任經濟部長以及央行的許多成員本質上都是交易員，他們不會預測走勢。因此，記住這一點非常重要。

Before you go on the ForEx, so if there is an adjustment in the exchange rate. So after that adjustment, where do you see the currency evolution?

在您進行外匯交易之前，如果匯率有調整。那麼調整之後，您認為貨幣的演進在哪裡？

If you consider today, the blend export -- blend effect for export, that is 80% that the official one, 20% of the bluechip stock. And if you consider the import effects, that takes is 17.5% tax. That will give you than [ARS1,150 or ARS1,200] per dollar for the official four years for the unified effects or unified effects. Then for next year, if you apply inflation, I guess we would be closer to ARS1,700 or so. And but this is again the most difficult estimate to make.

如果你考慮今天的混合出口－出口的混合效應，那就是官方股票的80%，藍籌股的20%。如果考慮進口影響，則需要徵收17.5%的稅。這將為您提供比官方四年的統一效果或統一效果每美元 [1,150 ARS1,200] 的效果。那麼明年，如果考慮通貨膨脹因素，我想我們會接近 1,700 盧比左右。但這又是最難做出的估計。

In the case of our bond portfolio, basically, we have all the CPI linkers or the bonds in pesos adjusted by by the CPI at the cost plus yield. Why? Because this is the position we use to cover our network against inflation. Mostly, the risk of the bonds are a mark-to-market. And in our case, the bonds in pesos adjusted by CPI, it's a big portion of our loan book, that is why our results are not so volatile as in the case of our -- as it was the case in other competitors.

就我們的債券投資組合而言，基本上，我們擁有所有 CPI 掛鉤債券或以 CPI 按成本加收益率調整的比索債券。為什麼？因為這是我們用來保護我們的網路免受通貨膨脹影響的部位。大多數情況下，債券的風險是按市值計價的。就我們而言，以消費物價指數調整的比索債券占我們貸款帳簿的很大一部分，這就是為什麼我們的結果不像我們的情況那樣波動——就像其他競爭對手的情況一樣。

As of now, I would say 45% of our loan book is at cost plus yield. The rest is mark-to-market, but a big portion in our lockups are 70 days on average duration. So really there the difference between market prices and book value are the minimum. So basically, that is how we -- how our loan portfolio.

截至目前，我想說我們的貸款帳簿中有 45% 是按成本加收益率計算的。其餘部分以市價計價，但我們的鎖定期很大一部分平均持續時間為 70 天。因此，市場價格和帳面價值之間的差異確實是最小的。基本上，這就是我們的貸款組合的方式。

Thank you. And for the rest of the year with respect to deals again, because there are a lot of CPI linkers with respect to yield, we see inflation declining with it?

謝謝。今年剩下的時間裡，在交易方面，因為有許多 CPI 與殖利率掛鉤，我們會看到通膨隨之下降嗎？

Yes, basically, we see as we hope -- we have them a cost-plus deal. And I would say that the yield should be close to inflation. So CPI or [SAR] plus 1% or so. So the assumption would be the same as inflation for this group of bonds.

是的，基本上，我們看到了我們所希望的——我們與他們達成了一項成本加成的協議。我想說，收益率應該接近通貨膨脹。所以 CPI 或 [SAR] 加 1% 左右。因此，該假設與這組債券的通貨膨脹相同。

Very clear. Thank you so much.

非常清楚。太感謝了。

You're welcome, Carlos.

不客氣，卡洛斯。

(Operator Instructions) We did not have any further questions at this time. Mr. Firvida, I'd like to call back over to you for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you.

（操作員說明）目前我們沒有任何進一步的問題。菲爾維達先生，我想再給您打電話，詢問您是否有任何補充或結束語。謝謝。

Thank you, George. Well, thank you, everybody, for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning and have a nice weekend.

謝謝你，喬治。好的，謝謝大家參加這次電話會議。如果您還有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。早上好，週末愉快。

Thank you very much, Mr. Firvida. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. (inaudible) Have a good day and goodbye.

非常感謝您，菲爾維達先生。女士們先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。（聽不清楚）祝你有美好的一天，再見。