Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release for Grupo Financiero Galicia. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎來到 Grupo Financiero Galicia 2023 年第三季財報發布。我叫梅麗莎，我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I'll now turn the call over to Pablo Firvida. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給巴勃羅·菲爾維達。請繼續。

Thank you, Melissa. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a concise introduction, and then we will take your questions.

謝謝你，梅麗莎。早上好，歡迎參加本次電話會議。我先簡單介紹一下，然後回答大家的提問。

Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. federal securities laws, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

本次電話會議期間發表的一些聲明將屬於美國聯邦證券法安全港條款含義內的前瞻性聲明，並受到可能導致實際結果與所表達的結果存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, the Argentine economy recorded a 0.3% year-over-year expansion during August. In year-to-date terms, the economic downturn stood at minus 1.6%, but year 2023 with a number closer to minus 2% according to the Argentine Central Bank's market expectations survey.

根據月度經濟活動指標，8月份阿根廷經濟年增0.3%。根據阿根廷央行的市場預期調查，今年迄今，經濟衰退率為-1.6%，但到2023年，這一數字將接近-2%。

During the third quarter of 2023, the primary fiscal deficit reached 1.4% of GDP. This implies a slight deterioration against the 1.3% deficit accumulated during the same period of 2022. This outcome was explained by a 100.5% revenue increase in year-to-date terms, whereas primary spending rose 104.3%.

2023年第三季度，基本財政赤字達到GDP的1.4%。這意味著與 2022 年同期累積的 1.3% 赤字相比略有惡化。這一結果的原因是年初至今收入增長了 100.5%，而主要支出增長了 104.3%。

The National Consumer Price Index accumulated a 103.2% increase during the first 9 months of 2023. Inflation reached 142.7% annual variation in October 2023, which entailed an acceleration against the previous year's inflation, with inflation hitting its highest mark in 30 years.

2023年前9個月，全國居民消費物價指數累計上漲103.2%。2023年10月，通膨年變幅達142.7%，較上年通膨加速，通膨創30年來最高水準。

On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded the monetary base by ARS 942.5 billion in the third quarter, recording a 66.6% increase in year-on-year terms. After the primary elections held in August, the Argentine Central Bank devalued the Argentine peso by 17.9%, which stood at ARS 350 per dollar between August 14 and November 15. Since then, the effect started displaying a daily crawl of around 0.1%. The average exchange rate in September stood at ARS 350 per dollar, which entailed a 50.6% peso devaluation for the first 9 months of the year. When compared to September 2022, the Argentine peso underwent a 59% devaluation.

貨幣方面，阿根廷央行第三季擴大基礎貨幣9,425億阿根廷比索，較去年同期成長66.6%。 8月舉行初選後，阿根廷央行將阿根廷比索貶值17.9%，8月14日至11月15日期間阿根廷比索兌美元匯率為350阿根廷比索。此後，這一影響開始呈現每日約0.1%的爬行趨勢。 9 月的平均匯率為 1 美元兌換 350 阿根廷比索，這意味著今年前 9 個月比索貶值了 50.6%。與 2022 年 9 月相比，阿根廷比索貶值了 59%。

The monetary authority raised interest rates after the primary election, with the policy rate at the minimum rate for time deposits under ARS 30 million up to 118%. After the National Institute for Statistics published September inflation in mid-October, the policy rate was raised again and currently stands at 133%, as well as the minimum rate for time deposits.

貨幣當局在初選後提高了利率，政策利率為3000萬阿根廷盾以下定期存款的最低利率，最高可達118%。 10月中旬國家統計局公佈9月通膨數據後，政策利率再次上調，目前為133%，同時也提高了定期存款利率。

In September 2023, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days stood at 114%, 46. 9 percentage points above the average of September 2022. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 27.3 trillion in September, increasing by 24.7% during the quarter, and 121.7% in the last 12 months. Time deposits in pesos rose 22.7% during the quarter, and 121.2% year-over-year, while peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 27.4% and 123.4%, respectively, in the same period.

2023 年9 月，以比索計價的私部門定期存款最長59 天的平均利率為114%，比2022 年9 月的平均利率高 46. 9 個百分點。9 月份以比索計價的私部門存款平均為27.3 兆阿根廷比索，增加本季成長 24.7%，過去 12 個月成長 121.7%。比索定期存款本季成長 22.7%，年增 121.2%，而比索計價的交易存款同期分別成長 27.4% 和 123.4%。

Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $15 billion in September 2023, decreasing 2.9% during the quarter and increasing 1% in the last 12 months. Peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 11.7 trillion in September, increasing 23% in the quarter and 101.4% when compared to September 2022, while private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $3.8 billion, recording a 2% retraction during the quarter and a 5.2% expansion when compared to September 2022.

2023 年 9 月，私部門以美元計價的存款達到 150 億美元，本季下降 2.9%，過去 12 個月成長 1%。 9 月向私部門提供的比索計價貸款平均為11.7 兆阿根廷披索，本季成長23%，與2022 年9 月相比成長101.4%，而私部門以美元計價的貸款總額為38 億美元，本季度下降2%與 2022 年 9 月相比成長 5.2%。

In terms of politics, after the primaries held in August, we had Presidential elections in October. And after this first round, last Sunday, November 19, there was a run-off and Javier Milei was elected President. He will take office on December 10.

在政治方面，繼8月的初選之後，我們在10月進行了總統選舉。第一輪投票結束後，即 11 月 19 日上週日，進行了決選，哈維爾·米萊 (Javier Milei) 當選總統。他將於12月10日就職。

Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. Net income for the third quarter amounted to ARS 54.2 billion, 103% higher from the year-ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 51.1 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 3.3 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS 590 million, partially offset by the ARS 2.3 billion of loans from Naranja X. This profit represented a 3.4% annualized return on average assets and a 17% return on average shareholders' equity.

現在轉向加利西亞金融集團。第三季淨利為542 億阿根廷比索，比去年同期成長103%，主要得益於加利西亞銀行(Banco Galicia) 利潤511 億阿根廷比，加利西亞資產管理公司(Galicia Asset Management) 利潤33 億阿根廷比，以及加利西亞Seguros 利潤590 億比索百萬美元，部分被 Naranja X 的 23 億阿根廷比索貸款抵消。該利潤代表平均資產年化回報率為 3.4%，平均股東權益回報率為 17%。

Banco Galicia's net income for the quarter was 126% higher than in the year-ago quarter as the net operating income increased 79%. Average interest-earning assets reached ARS 3.55 trillion, 6% lower than in the same quarter of 2022, mainly due to a 13% decrease of loans in pesos. In the same period, its yield increased almost 37 percentage points, reaching 92.2%.

加利西亞銀行本季的淨利比去年同期高 126%，淨營業收入成長 79%。平均生息資產達3.55兆阿根廷披索，比2022年同季下降6%，主要是比索貸款減少13%。同期，其收益率成長了近37個百分點，達到92.2%。

Interest-bearing liabilities increased 2% from September 2022, amounting to ARS 3.08 trillion. This growth was mainly due to a 4% increase in time deposits in pesos. During this period, its cost increased 30.1 percentage points to 68.3%.

有息負債較2022年9月增加2%，達3.08兆阿根廷比索。這一增長主要是由於比索定期存款增加了 4%。在此期間，其成本增加了30.1個百分點，達到68.3%。

Considering together net interest income and net interest -- and net income from financial instruments, they grew 35% from the same quarter of 2022. It is worth to remember the change in the valuation model of the Leliqs acquired from January 1, 2023. These instruments used to be valued at fair value, and the criteria was changed to amortized cost. Thus it is being recorded as interest income instead of within results from financial instruments.

考慮到淨利息收入和淨利息以及金融工具的淨收入，它們比2022 年同一季度增長了35%。值得記住的是，自2023 年1 月1 日起收購的Leliqs 的估值模型發生了變化。工具原來以公允價值計量，標準改為攤餘成本。因此，它被記錄為利息收入，而不是金融工具的結果。

Net fee income increased 17% from September 2022, mainly due to 19% higher profits from credit card fees, 32% increase from other fees, and 9% higher fees from [bundle of] products. Gains from gold and FX flotation differences were 419% higher from the year-ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading.

淨費用收入較 2022 年 9 月增長 17%，主要是由於信用卡費用利潤增長 19%，其他費用利潤增長 32%，以及[捆綁]產品費用增長 9%。黃金和外匯浮動差異帶來的收益比去年同期高出 419%，其中包括外幣交易的結果。

Other operating income increased 101% in the quarter as a result of a 58% increase in other adjustments and interest on miscellaneous receivables as a consequence of devaluation of financial instruments granted as collateral, and to 452% increase in other income. As regards provision for loan losses, the amount for the quarter was 20% higher than those recorded in the year-ago quarter, reaching ARS 20 billion.

由於作為抵押品的金融工具貶值，其他調整和雜項應收款利息增加了 58%，本季度其他營業收入增長了 101%，其他收入增長了 452%。至於貸款損失撥備，本季的金額比去年同期高出 20%，達到 200 億阿根廷比索。

Personnel expenses were 9% higher than in the third quarter of 2022, in line with the 3% increase of staff and of salary increases above inflation, while administrative expenses were 5% higher due to a 27% increase of taxes. Other operating expenses increased 49% due to a 55% higher turnover tax due to an increase in the gross income tax from financial operations, and 51% higher charges for other provisions related to discounts on credit cards and payroll accounts.

人事費用比 2022 年第三季增加 9%，與員工人數增加 3% 和高於通膨的薪資成長一致，而由於稅收增加 27%，行政費用增加 5%。其他營運費用增加了 49%，原因是金融業務總所得稅增加導致流轉稅增加 55%，以及與信用卡和薪資帳戶折扣相關的其他撥備費用增加了 51%。

The income tax charge was ARS 15.8 billion, higher than in the third quarter of 2022. We had an effective tax rate of 26%.

所得稅費用為 158 億阿根廷比索，高於 2022 年第三季。我們的有效稅率為 26%。

The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 2 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 6% in the last 12 months, with peso-denominated loans decreasing 7%, and dollar-denominated loans, 29%.

截至本季末，該銀行對私部門的融資達到2 兆阿根廷比索，在過去12 個月內下降了6%，其中以比索計價的貸款下降了7%，以美元計價的貸款下降了29% 。

Net exposure to the public sector increased 1% year-over-year as a result of higher holdings of dual bonds and [Botes] offset by lower holdings of Leliqs. Excluding the exposure to the Central Bank, Leliqs, credit and repurchase agreement transactions, net exposure represented 16% of total assets, the same level as of the end of the third quarter of last year.

由於雙重債券和 [Botes] 持有量的增加被 Leliqs 持有量的減少所抵消，公共部門的淨風險敞口同比增加了 1%。剔除央行、Leliqs、信貸和回購協議交易的曝險，淨曝險佔總資產的16%，與去年第三季末持平。

Deposits reached ARS 3.75 trillion, 6% lower than the year before, mainly due to a 14% decrease of time deposits in pesos. The bank's estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 11.68%, 15 basis points higher than at the end of the year-ago quarter. And the market share of deposits from the private sector was almost 10%, 20 basis points lower than in the same quarter of 2022.

存款達3.75兆阿根廷比索，較上年下降6%，主要是因為比索定期存款減少14%。該銀行預計私部門貸款市佔率為11.68%，比去年同期末高出15個基點。私部門存款的市佔率接近10%，比2022年同季下降20個基點。

The bank's liquid assets represented 110% of transactional deposits and 55% of total deposits, up from 109% and 53%, respectively, from a year before. As regards asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loans to total financing ending the quarter at 2.46%, recording a 41 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2.05% of the third quarter of the prior year. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 134%, down 100 percentage points from the 234% recorded a year ago.

該銀行的流動資產佔交易性存款的110%和總存款的55%，高於去年同期的109%和53%。資產品質方面，截至本季末，不良貸款佔融資總額的比率為2.46%，較去年第三季的2.05%下降41個基點。同時，補貼覆蓋率達到134%，比一年前的234%下降了100個百分點。

As of the end of September 2023, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 25%, decreasing 78 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2022, while Tier 1 ratio was 24.1%, growing 22 basis points during the same period.

截至2023年9月末，該行總監管資本率為25%，較2022年同季末下降78個基點，一級資本率為24.1%，同期成長22個基點。

In summary, in a particularly challenging and volatile political and macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity and solvency metrics at healthy levels and to sustain a good level of profitability in spite of the significant impact of the high inflation of the quarter.

綜上所述，在充滿挑戰和動蕩的政治和宏觀環境下，儘管受到高通膨的嚴重影響，Grupo Financiero Galicia 仍能夠將資產品質、流動性和償付能力指標保持在健康水平，並維持良好的盈利水平。該季​​度。

We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.

我們現在準備好回答您可能提出的問題。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brian Flores of Citibank.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的布萊恩·弗洛雷斯（Brian Flores）。

Congratulations on your results. I was going to do two questions. The first one is on how are you thinking about your exposure to the public sector in terms of strategy and maturity? And also wondering if you have already had any contacts with the transition team directly or via the banking association. Any insight there on the receptivity, openness, et cetera, would be greatly appreciated. And after I'll do my second question.

祝賀你的結果。我本來想做兩個問題。第一個是關於您如何看待您在公共部門的策略和成熟度？另外也想知道您是否已經直接或透過銀行協會與過渡團隊進行了聯繫。任何關於接受性、開放性等方面的見解都將不勝感激。之後我會回答第二個問題。

Brian. Well, the exposure to the public sector is made up by two parts, Leliqs and basically repos with the Central Bank and government bonds. The Leliqs are 28 days short-term basically, paper issued by the Central Bank. And it's the allocation we have from the money coming from deposits that is not demanded by the private sector in the form of loans.

布萊恩.嗯，公共部門的風險敞口由兩部分組成，Leliqs 和基本上是中央銀行和政府債券的回購。 Leliqs 基本上是 28 天短期票據，由中央銀行發行。這是我們從存款中獲得的資金的分配，而私部門並不需要以貸款的形式。

The current Central Bank sets a minimum interest rate for time deposits, so we must take the deposits, and the only way not to lose money and to invest the deposits is to purchase Leliqs. Leliqs or the repos with 1-day exposure to Central Bank.

目前央行對定期存款規定了最低利率，所以我們必須吸收存款，而唯一不虧錢並能用存款進行投資的方法就是購買Leliqs。 Leliqs 或具有中央銀行 1 天敞口的回購協議。

In many conversations, rumors, or even politicians, including Milei, have said that part of the main considerations when they decide or set the economic plan is to solve the issue of Leliqs. We consider that there is no need to make -- to take any, I would say, unfriendly decision or restructuring with Leliqs. Actually, the elected President Milei said that he wants to respect private property and all the rights.

在許多談話、謠言中，甚至包括米萊在內的政治家都表示，他們在決定或製定經濟計畫時的部分主要考慮是解決萊利克斯問題。我想說，我們認為沒有必要與 Leliqs 做出任何不友善的決定或重組。事實上，當選總統米萊表示，他希望尊重私有財產和所有權利。

So within, I would say, a consistent economic plan, the reduction of Leliqs should be similar but in the opposite direction as how they were created. Basically, they were created because the Central Bank printed money to finance the treasury, the national treasury, and also the Central Bank purchased government bonds in order to have, within certain ranges, the effects, the financial effects. And therefore, they issue Leliqs in order to sterilize this money.

因此，我想說，在一個一致的經濟計劃中，萊利克斯的減少應該與它們的創建方式類似，但方向相反。基本上，它們的產生是因為中央銀行印鈔票來資助國庫、國庫，而中央銀行購買政府債券是為了在一定範圍內產生效果、金融效果。因此，他們發行 Leliqs 來對這筆錢進行消毒。

If the new government cuts the public spending or rolls to the public [superavit] and not deficit that is the case today, there will be no pressure. And also the monetization of the economy that today is around 2.3% in terms of GDP could go to more normal levels of 2.5%. So this -- if the government cuts spending, they don't have the need to print money, and monetization goes back to normal levels, not high levels, normal levels, Leliqs will not be a problem. And also if, again, the economic plan is consistent, sustainable and grants confidence, the stock of Leliqs will shift quickly to loans to the private sector. This is Central Bank.

如果新政府削減公共支出或向公眾滾動[超級維特]而不是像今天這樣的赤字，就不會有壓力。此外，目前經濟貨幣化佔 GDP 的 2.3% 左右，可能會達到 2.5% 的更正常水準。所以這個——如果政府削減開支，他們就沒有必要印鈔了，貨幣化回到正常水平，而不是高水平，正常水平，Leliqs不會成為問題。而且，如果經濟計劃是一致的、可持續的並賦予信心，Leliqs 的存量將迅速轉向向私營部門提供貸款。這是中央銀行。

In terms of government bonds, most of our exposure is to -- it's in pesos adjusted by CPI, and it's the way we find to hedge our network against inflation. It's not a perfect hedge because there is a 2-month lag between the inflation printed monthly and the one that we receive in the bonds, but it's the best way we find to hedge against inflation.

就政府債券而言，我們的大部分風險敞口都是按消費物價指數調整的比索，這是我們對沖我們的網路通膨風險的方式。這不是一種完美的對沖，因為每月列印的通膨率與我們在債券中收到的通膨率之間存在兩個月的滯後，但這是我們發現對沖通膨的最佳方式。

We want to have exposure with government bonds, again to cover our network. Of course, we would prefer to lend to millions of clients from the private sector. The issue is that with this level of inflation, and therefore, this level of nominal interest rates, loan demand is actually smaller than inflation, and that's why loan-to-GDP are going down and loans -- or our loan book in real terms is shrinking.

我們希望投資政府債券，以涵蓋我們的網路。當然，我們更願意向私部門的數百萬客戶提供貸款。問題是，在這種通貨膨脹水準下，因此，在這種名目利率水準下，貸款需求實際上小於通貨膨脹，這就是為什麼貸款與GDP 之比下降，貸款或我們的貸款帳簿按實際價值計算的原因正在萎縮。

In terms of contact with the elected President or team, we still don't know, and it was not announced, not only the future Minister of Economy, nor the President of the Central Bank. There are some names and rumors, but they were not officially elected or communicated. Perhaps this alliance with Macri's party will need some kind of conversations, agreement or discussions. Through [Aveva], we -- or Aveva , I would say, issued a document a couple of months ago proposing a solution -- a bid to solution for Leliqs. This is available and public. But there were not individual contacts due, or mainly because we don't have the name of the counterpart. Sorry if the answer was too long, Brian.

至於與當選總統或團隊的聯繫，我們仍然不知道，也沒有公佈，不僅是未來的經濟部長，也沒有公佈央行總裁。有一些名字和傳聞，但沒有正式選舉或傳達。也許與馬克里政黨的聯盟需要某種對話、協議或討論。透過 [Aveva]，我們——或者我想說的是 Aveva，在幾個月前發布了一份文件，提出了一個解決方案——為 Leliqs 提供解決方案。這是可用且公開的。但沒有進行任何個人接觸，或主要是因為我們不知道對方的姓名。抱歉，如果答案太長，布萊恩。

No, Pablo, this is perfect. And my final question is with nearly one more to go, I'm just wondering if there were going to be any guidance changes for 2023 ROE.

不，巴勃羅，這很完美。我的最後一個問題是，還有將近一個問題要問，我只是想知道 ROE 的 2023 年指導是否會有任何變化。

Well, the accumulated ROE stands at 17%, in the third quarter was 17%. So far -- well, it's very sensitive to the monthly inflation, as you can see in the -- in that line in the P&L, the results due to -- monetized losses due to inflation, but we think it could be between 15% and 17% for the full year.

那麼累計ROE是17%，第三季是17%。到目前為止，它對每月通貨膨脹非常敏感，正如您在損益表中的那一行中看到的，結果是由於通貨膨脹造成的貨幣化損失，但我們認為它可能在 15% 之間全年增長17%。

Next year, well, we -- there are lots of questions. I think we are in a period or in a moment, there is a kind of inflection point. There will be a new economic regime and I think lots of regulations will disappear. And I think changes could be, if everything goes in the right direction, loan book recovery could be much faster than expected.

明年，我們——還有很多問題。我認為我們正處於一個時期或某個時刻，有一種轉折點。將會有一個新的經濟體制，我認為許多法規將會消失。我認為變化可能是，如果一切都朝著正確的方向發展，貸款帳簿的恢復可能會比預期快得多。

Our next question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的埃內斯托·加比隆多。

Congrats on the results. My first question is on the potential economic outlook for Argentina. Which do you think would be like the key execution risks for the new administration? How do you see the possibility to implement structural reforms considering that there will be like a divided Congress as neither the official [liaison] or all the right parties will have majority? So anything on that will be very helpful.

祝賀結果。我的第一個問題是關於阿根廷潛在的經濟前景。您認為新政府的主要執行風險是什麼？考慮到國會將出現分裂，官方[聯絡人]或所有正確政黨都不會獲得多數席位，您如何看待實施結構性改革的可能性？所以任何關於這方面的事情都會非常有幫助。

And then my second question is a follow-up on the Leliqs exposure. So as you mentioned, if Leliqs are eliminated, the banks will have an important excess of liquidity, but will not be remunerated as before, and then you will have to allocate that into loans. However, considering the high level of interest rates and inflation in Argentina, how do you see the appetite for credit demand next year, especially for those that are more related to individuals?

我的第二個問題是 Leliqs 曝光的後續情況。因此，正如您所提到的，如果 Leliqs 被消除，銀行將擁有大量的流動性過剩，但不會像以前那樣獲得報酬，然後您將不得不將其分配到貸款中。然而，考慮到阿根廷的高利率和通膨水平，您如何看待明年的信貸需求，尤其是與個人相關的信貸需求？

And then my last question is on this potential dollarization of the economy. So far, we have seen that in the proposals, it could take 1.5 years, 2 years for the implementation. So just considering what could happen to the banks, they have more than 90% in pesos, how are you seeing that dollarization process for the banks, if there could be any potential impact? For example, if we have a depreciation of the peso, that could also create at least, the beginning, a lot of inflation also. There are a lot of moving parts. So will be interesting to know your view also on this dollarization part.

我的最後一個問題是關於經濟潛在的美元化。到目前為止，我們看到在建議中，可能需要1.5年、2年的時間來實施。因此，考慮一下銀行可能會發生什麼，他們擁有超過 90% 的比索，您如何看待銀行的美元化進程，是否可能產生任何潛在影響？例如，如果比索貶值，這也可能至少在開始時造成大量通貨膨脹。有很多活動部件。因此，了解您對美元化部分的看法也會很有趣。

Okay. Hi, Ernesto. Well, perhaps I can begin with the dollarization issue. I think, and many people around the financial system or even many economists think that dollarization is not feasible without dollars basically for the -- I always say that the private sector of Argentina is very long in dollars, that the public sector is very short of dollars. So the public sector is -- or it's hard for the public sector to dollarize.

好的。嗨，埃內斯托。好吧，也許我可以從美元化問題開始。我認為，金融體系周圍的許多人，甚至許多經濟學家都認為，如果沒有美元，美元化基本上是不可行的——我總是說阿根廷的私營部門非常多地持有美元，而公共部門則非常缺乏美元。美元。所以公共部門是——或者說公共部門很難美元化。

To, let's say, that they get the dollars, in order to dollarize, first, they should have to make many homework to put the numbers of the economy in order. And once that is done, the -- why to dollarize, that is what many economists are saying. And even Milei is saying that the population should choose which currency they use to pay or to collect. So I don't think a dollarization as in other countries would take place even in 1 or 2 years, as you mentioned.

比如說，為了獲得美元，為了實現美元化，他們首先必須做很多功課來整理經濟數據。一旦做到這一點，為什麼要美元化，這就是許多經濟學家所說的。甚至 Milei 也表示，人們應該選擇使用哪種貨幣來支付或收取。因此，正如您所提到的，我認為即使在一兩年內也不會像其他國家那樣實現美元化。

And when I think in the financial system, I think that some prudential regulation that was created 22 years ago or so said that banks can lend in dollars just to exporters. So if there were to be a dollarization, that would mean a lot of risk in terms of lending in dollars to individuals or companies that do not generate dollars. So really, the dollarization is not something that we are seeing as feasible.

當我思考金融體系時，我認為大約 22 年前製定的一些審慎監管規定，銀行只能向出口商提供美元貸款。因此，如果美元化，那麼向不產生美元的個人或公司發放美元貸款將面臨很大的風險。事實上，我們認為美元化並不可行。

Also the alliance with Macri and Patricia Bullrich, I think are putting this alternative farther, or they are evaporating, that is a good word, the possibility of dollarization.

我認為，與馬克里和帕特里夏·布爾里奇的聯盟也使這種替代方案走得更遠，或者他們正在消失，這是一個好詞，美元化的可能性。

In terms of execution risk, I think that after the elections of last Sunday, Milei found a lot of support from the population. He had almost 56% of the votes, 11.5-or-so percent more -- percentage points more than Massa. So he has the mandate and many congressmen received that piece of information.

就執行風險而言，我認為在上週日的選舉之後，米雷得到了許多民眾的支持。他獲得了近 56% 的選票，比馬薩多出 11.5 個百分點左右。所以他擁有授權，許多國會議員都收到了這封訊息。

So I think that within Milei's party, Macri's and some others, could get quorum and approval of laws that are necessary to make reforms. Other smaller reforms could be done with the will, I would say, of the executive power. But of course, is the main risk of Milei, the execution risk, as I would say that his ideas or his trend in economic terms are in the good direction: reducing fiscal spending, pointing to fiscal [superavit], no more printing of money by the Central Bank, giving freedom to the private sector. So many good intentions. And as I said, many of these decisions will be key decisions, with power other, he will need the congress.

因此，我認為，在米萊的政黨內，馬克里和其他一些人可以獲得法定人數並批准改革所需的法律。我想說，其他較小的改革可以根據行政權力的意願來完成。但當然，米雷的主要風險是執行風險，因為我想說他的想法或他在經濟方面的趨勢是好的方向：減少財政支出，指向財政[超級維特]，不再印鈔中央銀行給予私營部門自由。這麼多的善意。正如我所說，其中許多決定將是關鍵決定，除了權力之外，他將需要國會。

For example, when they said at the beginning of the campaign that they will shut the Central Bank, lately, we are seeing that what they want to do is to prohibit the Central Bank prints money. Of course, the superintendency of banks is needed to supervise banks and to set the regulations and to eliminate many distorted regulations.

例如，當他們在競選活動開始時表示將關閉央行時，最近我們看到他們想做的是禁止央行印鈔。當然，需要銀行監管機構來監管銀行、制定規則並消除許多扭曲的規則。

Instead of -- or going back to the third question, the Leliqs, well, the (inaudible) cycle would be Leliqs shifting to the private sector loans, but that will take some time, perhaps couple of months, 6 months, I don't know how much. We don't know what is the economic team of Milei thinking when they say solving the issue of Leliqs. But they said that they want to respect private property, to pay debts, that anything will be done in a friendly way. So I guess they could offer a menu of alternatives if they want to do something, but at a market value. So it shouldn't create a problem for the banks.

而不是——或者回到第三個問題，萊利克斯，好吧，（聽不清楚）週期將是萊利克斯轉向私部門貸款，但這需要一些時間，也許幾個月，六個月，我不知道。不知道有多少。我們不知道 Milei 的經濟團隊在說解決 Leliqs 問題時在想什麼。但他們表示，他們希望尊重私有財產，償還債務，任何事情都會以友好的方式進行。因此，我想如果他們想做某事，他們可以提供一系列替代方案，但要按市場價值。因此，這不應該給銀行帶來問題。

And if they finish with the obligation for banks to pay a minimum interest rate on time deposits, we can stop taking time deposits and not investing in Leliqs. So really, at this point, there are many question marks, but we are confident that the anything will be done in a rational way because, as I said, the Leliqs are the other side of the coin of private sector deposits. So anything that they do can affect the asset size, they have a correlation on the liability side. I think I answered everything, Ernesto.

如果他們結束了銀行支付定期存款最低利率的義務，我們就可以停止吸收定期存款，不再投資 Leliqs。所以，實際上，在這一點上還有很多問號，但我們有信心一切都會以理性的方式完成，因為正如我所說，萊利克是私營部門存款硬幣的另一面。因此，他們所做的任何事情都會影響資產規模，他們在負債方面具有相關性。我想我已經回答了一切，埃內斯托。

Our next question comes from Nicolas Riva from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Nicolas Riva。

And I'm going to also follow up, circle back on what Brian and Ernesto asked about the Leliqs. And I think that your point, if I understood correctly, Pablo, is that going forward with a reduction in the fiscal deficit, there won't be a need really for the government to continue printing as much pesos to finance the fiscal deficit, and therefore, there won't be a need to continue issuing those Leliqs.

我還將跟進，回顧布萊恩和埃內斯托關於萊利克斯的問題。我認為，巴勃羅，如果我理解正確的話，你的觀點是，隨著財政赤字的減少，政府實際上不需要繼續印製那麼多比索來為財政赤字融資，並且因此，沒有必要繼續發行這些Leliq。

My question is more on the stock of the outstanding Leliqs, which right now is between 20% and 25% of the total assets of the entire banking sector and over 1x the equity, what could be -- I mean, for example, if one alternative that has been discussed or not would be an exchange of these Leliqs for government obligations because, again, if there were to be, let's say, a debt exchange where the banks have to take a relevant haircut on those Leliqs, then there could be a very negative impact on the equity of the banks given that, again, that Leliqs are over 1x the shareholders' equity of banks.

我的問題更多是關於未償付的Leliqs 的存量，目前該存量佔整個銀行業總資產的20% 到25%，超過股本的1 倍，那麼可能會是什麼——我的意思是，例如，如果已經討論過或沒有討論過的替代方案是用這些 Leliqs 交換政府義務，因為，如果要進行債務交換，銀行必須對這些 Leliqs 進行相關的削減，那麼可能會有鑑於Leliqs 是銀行股東權益的1 倍以上，這對銀行的權益產生了非常負面的影響。

So my question is if there's been any discussion with incoming administration regarding that treatment or a potential debt exchange of Leliqs for federal government obligations.

所以我的問題是，是否與即將上任的政府就這種待遇或萊利克斯潛在的債務交換聯邦政府義務進行了任何討論。

Well, using the government paper they have, they could simply sell the bonds and pay back the Leliqs, that could be an alternative. There were no discussions in that respect. But if any solution is done with -- or even voluntary terms or friendly terms or market terms, there should be no impact on the equity of banks.

好吧，利用他們擁有的政府文件，他們可以簡單地出售債券並償還萊利克斯，這可能是另一種選擇。沒有這方面的討論。但如果採取任何解決方案，甚至是自願條款、友善條款或市場條款，都不會對銀行的權益產生影響。

But again, we think that the issue could be solved just -- well, again, within a consistent economic plan, not just looking at Leliqs, but if you generate confidence, price of bonds, they go up and there is a demand for bonds, you can sell them. Also if they reduce the fiscal expenditure and get to [superavit], or surplus, there will be no need to print money, again, they could sell the government bonds they have. And not only we can be reducing Leliqs because they are 28 days instrument, we can also allocate in repos. But the Central Bank, everybody knows that, as you said, the size of the Leliqs is significant in terms of the net worth of the banks. So any solution, and again, is the other coin of deposits, that's even more important, the health -- just the health of banks or the financial system that is also the money of the depositors. So any solution that we think could be virtuous must consider these two interests, not only the net worth or the health of the financial system, but also the depositors.

但我們再次認為，這個問題可以在一致的經濟計劃內解決，不僅僅是關注萊利克斯，而是如果你產生信心，債券價格就會上漲，並且對債券有需求，你可以賣掉它們。此外，如果他們減少財政支出並達到[superavit]或盈餘，則無需印鈔，他們可以再次出售他們擁有的政府債券。我們不僅可以減少 Leliqs，因為它們是 28 天的工具，我們還可以在回購協議中進行分配。但是中央銀行，每個人都知道，正如您所說，萊利克斯的規模對銀行的淨資產來說非常重要。因此，任何解決方案都是存款的另一種形式，更重要的是健康——銀行或金融體系的健康，也是儲戶的錢。因此，我們認為任何良性的解決方案都必須考慮這兩種利益，不僅是淨資產或金融體系的健康狀況，還要考慮儲戶的利益。

Our next question comes from Carlos Gomez with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的卡洛斯‧戈麥斯。

I have two. The first one is if you could comment on the acquisition of the [SURA] assets, the insurance business, and how -- what you expect to do -- what you think are the changes, your outlook, for the coming years?

我有兩個。第一個是您是否可以評論一下[SURA]資產的收購、保險業務，以及您期望做什麼——您認為未來幾年的變化、您的景觀是什麼？

The second, I noticed that you had a decrease in the credit card balances. So you seem to be more cautious when it comes to credit. And also you had a decrease in the current accounts, 31%. Could you comment on those two lines?

第二，我注意到你們的信用卡餘額減少了。所以你在信貸方面似乎更加謹慎。經常帳戶也減少了 31%。您能評論一下這兩行嗎？

Yes, Carlos. First, [SURA], we purchased the Argentine operation of this Colombian company. And the business is very complementary to Galicia Seguros business. Galicia Seguros is basically a bank assurance. They book the risk of a -- sell the -- book basically the insurance of the products sold by either Banco Galicia or Naranja X. In the case of Sura , the company is a little bit bigger than Galicia Seguros in terms of [primes] , personal and so on. But they bring many other lines of business that are, as I said, are complementary.

是的，卡洛斯。首先，[SURA]，我們購買了這家哥倫比亞公司的阿根廷業務。而且該業務與Galicia Seguros業務非常互補。 Galicia Seguros 基本上是一種銀行擔保。他們預訂的風險基本上是 Banco Galicia 或 Naranja X 銷售的產品的保險。就 Sura 而言，該公司在 [primes] 方面比 Galicia Seguros 稍大一點、個人等等。但正如我所說，他們帶來了許多其他業務，這些業務是互補的。

For example, car insurance, in the past Banco Galicia sold car insurance, but third-party insurance. In the case of SURA , they are -- they have this product. Also SURA has many products for SMEs and the agricultural sector. And they also have a very good or even big network of independent producers. This would be the translation. It's like advisers that have the clients, the final client -- this is around 4,000 independent advisers, that it's another channel to sell insurance.

例如汽車保險，過去加利西亞銀行賣的是汽車保險，而是第三人保險。就 SURA 而言，他們有這個產品。 SURA 也為中小企業和農業部門提供許多產品。他們還擁有一個非常好的甚至龐大的獨立製作人網絡。這就是翻譯。這就像顧問擁有客戶，最終客戶——大約有 4,000 名獨立顧問，這是銷售保險的另一個管道。

So we are very happy with the transaction. The numbers will be added to our numbers beginning in October. So, so far, you are not seeing any of that.

所以我們對這筆交易非常滿意。這些數字將從十月開始添加到我們的數字中。所以，到目前為止，你還沒有看到這些。

Regarding loan demand, basically, it's not that we are becoming risk-averse. It's less demand, let's say, from the client. The high nominal interest rates for individuals or also for companies are against loan demand, and that's why the, in real terms, loans are diminishing.

關於貸款需求，基本上，我們並不是規避風險。比如說，來自客戶的需求減少了。個人或公司的高名目利率不利於貸款需求，這就是實際貸款正在減少的原因。

What was the other question, Carlos, sorry?

抱歉，卡洛斯，另一個問題是什麼？

It was about [checking] accounts. But on loan demand, I mean, you have lost some market share. Again, is that a conscious decision, or just a reflection of loan demand in the sectors that you operate?

這是關於[檢查]帳戶。但就貸款需求而言，我的意思是，你失去了一些市場份額。再說一遍，這是一個有意識的決定，還是只是您所經營行業的貸款需求的反映？

Well, in terms of market share, the loan -- actually, it was 11.66%, in the last 12 months, I think it was a 20 basis points growth. We lost in deposits from, let's say, 11% to 10.7% to 10%. And in that case, there are many reasons, mainly, I would say, the bank can, let's say, adjust their deposits, not [convalidating] high interest rates for big deposits, typically either mutual funds or big corporate.

嗯，就市場佔有率而言，貸款實際上是 11.66%，在過去 12 個月裡，我認為成長了 20 個基點。我們的存款損失從 11% 到 10.7% 到 10%。在這種情況下，有很多原因，主要是，我想說，銀行可以調整存款，而不是[確認]大額存款的高利率，通常是共同基金或大公司。

But that's a problem with the total we have at the end of, in this case, in the quarter. But I wouldn't say it's a trend that we want to lose market share. On the contrary, we want to keep on growing market share. But again, it's not a variable that we can manage easily. It's more a demand problem.

但這是我們在本季度末的總數的問題。但我不會說這是我們想要失去市場佔有率的趨勢。相反，我們希望繼續擴大市場份額。但同樣，這不是我們可以輕鬆管理的變數。這比較是一個需求問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we have a question coming through from [Jorge Mora] of Fundamenta.

（操作員說明）Fundamenta 的 [Jorge Mora] 向我們提出了一個問題。

This is regarding the Leliq exposure. We noticed yesterday 60% of the auction was not rolled over. This is roughly $1.7 billion of the [parallel] exchange rate. So I'm curious here, what's the bank doing with all these spaces that you're deciding not to roll over yesterday?

這是關於 Leliq 的曝光。昨天我們注意到 60% 的拍賣沒有展期。以[平行]匯率計算，這大約為 17 億美元。所以我很好奇，銀行正在用你昨天決定不展期的所有這些空間做什麼？

Well, that was yesterday auction. As you said, [roll over] was around 40%. I don't have the details between private sector banks and public sector banks. What banks could do, the easy answer would be to shift from Leliqs to repo transactions with the Central Bank 1 day instead of 28 days. Or what we can do is reject time deposits from mutual funds or remunerated accounts from either mutual funds or certain big corporates, in order to reduce both asset and liability.

嗯，那是昨天的拍賣。正如你所說，[翻滾]約為 40%。我沒有私營部門銀行和公共部門銀行之間的詳細資料。銀行可以做什麼，簡單的答案是將與央行的回購交易從 Leliqs 轉向 1 天而不是 28 天。或者我們可以做的是拒絕共同基金的定期存款或共同基金或某些大公司的有酬帳戶，以減少資產和負債。

I think this will be a moving thing, a dynamic issue, because if all the banks sell -- or don't roll over the Leliqs and go to repos with the Central Bank, we will be in a similar situation. Or if we reject all the deposits from big corporates or mutual funds, all the balances will shrink, and we have to see who [is the winner].

我認為這將是一件令人感動的事情，一個動態的問題，因為如果所有銀行都出售——或者不展期 Leliqs 並與央行進行回購，我們將處於類似的情況。或者，如果我們拒絕大公司或共同基金的所有存款，所有餘額都會縮水，我們必須看看誰是贏家。

I think we are in the early stages of this situation. I wouldn't extrapolate what happened yesterday with 40% rollover to the next auctions.

我認為我們正處於這種情況的早期階段。我不會用 40% 的展期額來推斷昨天發生的情況到下一次拍賣。

Okay. But just to understand, you can -- you have the ability to reject deposits.

好的。但只要了解一下，您就可以—您有能力拒絕存款。

Not from the retail where we have to pay a minimum interest rate. We can do it for big corporates at lower rates or what we call the remunerated accounts for mutual funds or other banks.

不是來自我們必須支付最低利率的零售。我們可以以較低的利率為大企業做到這一點，或為共同基金或其他銀行提供我們所謂的有償帳戶。

Okay. And if I may just a follow-up on your net dollar position, it's around 32% of equity. Do you have a maximum position? I presume this is mostly on the dual ones, right? Can you increase this further, or is there a cap?

好的。如果我只是跟進一下您的淨美元頭寸，大約是股本的 32%。你有最高職位嗎？我想這主要是在雙機上，對嗎？可以進一步增加嗎，或者有上限嗎？

Well, the thing there, we have a cap, regulatory cap, actually, we must be close or hedged in the spot position, and we can go long with forward contracts up to 5% of the regulatory capital. The thing is that when you look at the balance sheet, it has some, I would say, different treatment when we look at what we say are assets in dollars. Because, for example, the dual bonds and the Leliqs are -- the accounting are considered dollar assets but not for the regulatory -- or the regulation regarding the position in dollars. That's why it looks so high.

嗯，事情是這樣的，我們有一個上限，監管上限，實際上，我們必須平倉或對沖現貨頭寸，我們可以做多遠合約，最高可達監管資本的 5%。問題是，當你查看資產負債表時，我想說，當我們查看我們所說的美元資產時，它有一些不同的處理方式。因為，例如，雙重債券和萊利克債券——會計上被認為是美元資產，但不適合監管——或關於美元頭寸的監管。這就是為什麼它看起來那麼高。

Actually, if you deduct the holdings of dual bonds and levies must be slightly negative at the end of September.

實際上，如果扣除雙債持有量和徵費，到9月底一定是小幅負值。

Thank you. And as we have no further questions in the queue, I would like to turn it back over to Pablo Firvida for any closing remarks.

謝謝。由於隊列中沒有其他問題，我想將其轉回給巴勃羅·菲爾維達（Pablo Firvida）以供結束發言。

Well, thank you very much, all of you, for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning, and happy Thanksgiving for the U.S. investors and analysts. Bye-bye.

非常感謝大家參加這次電話會議。如果您還有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。早安，祝美國投資者和分析師感恩節快樂。再見。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。