Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 2023 年第二季度收益發布電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。

And now at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Pablo Firvida. Please go ahead.

現在這個時候，我想把電話轉給巴勃羅·菲爾維達。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a concise introduction, and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Federal Securities Laws and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加本次電話會議。我先簡單介紹一下，然後回答大家的提問。本次電話會議期間發表的一些聲明將屬於美國聯邦證券法安全港條款含義內的前瞻性聲明，並受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與所表達的結果存在重大差異。

According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, MI, the Argentine economy recorded a 5.5% year-over-year contraction during May. In year-to-date terms, the economic downturn stood at minus 1.3%. During the first half of 2023, the primary deficit reached 1.1% of GDP. This implies an increase against the deficit of 1% accumulated during the same period of 2022. Results that was explained by revenues increasing by 90.4%, whereas primary spending rose 95.5%. The national CPI recorded 50.7%, increasing during the first half of 2023 including July.

根據月度經濟活動指標 MI，5 月份阿根廷經濟同比收縮 5.5%。今年迄今，經濟衰退率為-1.3%。 2023年上半年，基本赤字達到GDP的1.1%。這意味著 2022 年同期累計赤字增加 1%。結果是收入增長 90.4%，而主要支出增長 95.5%。 2023年上半年，包括7月份，全國CPI上漲50.7%。

Accumulated inflation for 2023 reached 60.2%, recording 113.4% annual variation in the last 12 months, which entailed an acceleration against the 71% of July 2022, 12 months trading inflation with inflation hitting its highest mark in 30 years. On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded the monetary base by ARS 516.3 billion in the second quarter, recording a 47.8% increase from June 2022.

2023年累計通脹率達到60.2%，過去12個月的年變化為113.4%，較2022年7月的71%有所加速，這12個月的通脹率創下30年來的最高水平。貨幣方面，阿根廷央行第二季度擴大貨幣基礎5163億阿根廷比索，較2022年6月增長47.8%。

The exchange rate averaged ARS 248.8 per dollar in June 2023, a 43.9% increase against the average of December, which implies a 30.5% peso devaluation. When compared to June 2022, the Argentine peso underwent a 50.7% devaluation. In June 2023, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for 59 days stood at 92.9%, 44.5 percentage points above the average of June 2022.

2023 年 6 月，美元兌阿根廷比索平均匯率為 248.8 盧比，比 12 月平均匯率上漲 43.9%，這意味著比索貶值 30.5%。與 2022 年 6 月相比，阿根廷比索貶值了 50.7%。 2023年6月，以比索計價的私營部門59天定期存款平均利率為92.9%，比2022年6月的平均利率高44.5個百分點。

After the primary elections, the Argentine Central Bank devalued the peso by 17.9% to ARS 350 per dollar. Additionally, the monetary authority increased interest rates with the monetary policy rate and the minimum rate for time deposits under ARS 30 million currently standing at 118%.

初選結束後，阿根廷央行將比索貶值 17.9%，至 1 美元兌 350 阿根廷比索。此外，貨幣當局提高了利率，貨幣政策利率和3000萬阿根廷比之下定期存款的最低利率目前為118%。

Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 21.9 trillion in June, increasing 22.6% during the quarter and 115.5% in the last 12 months. Time deposits in pesos rose 23.8% during the quarter and 125.8% in the year. Peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 21.2% during the second quarter and 106.9% in year-on-year terms. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $15.5 billion at the end of the quarter, decreasing 5.2% in the quarter and 0.6% in the last 12 months.

6 月份私營部門比索存款平均為 21.9 萬億阿根廷比索，本季度增長 22.6%，過去 12 個月增長 115.5%。比索定期存款本季度增長 23.8%，全年增長 125.8%。第二季度比索計價的交易存款增長 21.2%，同比增長 106.9%。截至本季度末，私營部門美元計價存款達 155 億美元，本季度下降 5.2%，過去 12 個月下降 0.6%。

During June, peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 9.5 trillion, increasing 25.6% in the quarter and 86.5% when compared to June 2022. While private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $3.8 billion recording an expansion of 4.6% during the quarter and of 0.3% when compared to June 2022.

6 月份，私營部門以比索計價的貸款平均為9.5 萬億澳元，本季度增長25.6%，與2022 年6 月相比增長86.5%。而私營部門以美元計價的貸款達到38 億美元，本季度增長4.6%。與 2022 年 6 月相比，下降了 0.3%。

Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. Net income for the second quarter amounted to ARS 58 billion, 425% higher from the year ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 51.8 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 4.4 billion, from Galicia Seguros for ARS 894 million and from Naranja X for ARS 185 million.

現在轉向加利西亞金融集團。第二季度淨利潤為580 億阿根廷比索，較去年同期增長425%，主要是由於加利西亞銀行利潤518 億阿根廷比，加利西亞資產管理公司利潤44 億阿根廷比，加利西亞Seguros 利潤8.94 億阿根廷比，以及從 Naranja X 處獲得 1.85 億阿根廷比索。

This profit represented a 4.9% annualized return on average assets and a 25.9% return on average shareholders' equity. Banco Galicia net income for the quarter was 555% higher than in the year ago quarter. The net operating income increased 62%, mainly due to 196% increase in net interest income.

該利潤代表平均資產年化回報率為4.9%，平均股東權益回報率為25.9%。加利西亞銀行本季度淨利潤比去年同期增長 555%。淨營業收入增長62%，主要由於淨利息收入增長196%。

Average interest-ending assets reached ARS 2.68 trillion similar level to that of the same quarter of 2022, mainly due to a 14% decrease in the average volume of peso-denominated loans, offset by 110% increase in the average volume of other interest-earning assets in pesos.

平均付息資產達到 2.68 萬億阿根廷比索，與 2022 年同季度水平相似，主要是由於比索計價貸款平均數量下降 14%，但其他利息平均數量增加 110% 所抵消。以比索賺取資產。

In the same period, its yield increased almost 34.2 percentage points, reaching 79.1%. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 4% from June 2022, amounting to ARS 2.31 trillion. This growth was mainly due to 12% increase in the average balance of time deposits in pesos offset by a 20% decrease in the average balance of peso-denominated saving accounts.

同期，其收益率增長了近34.2個百分點，達到79.1%。有息負債較2022年6月增加4%，達2.31萬億阿根廷比索。這一增長主要是由於比索定期存款平均餘額增加了 12%，但以比索計價的儲蓄賬戶平均餘額減少了 20%。

During this period, its cost increased 28.2 percentage points to 56.6%. Net interest income for the quarter increased 196% from the same quarter of 2022, with interest-earning income growing 131% and interest expenses growing 108% in the same period.

在此期間，其成本增加了28.2個百分點至56.6%。該季度淨利息收入較2022年同季度增長196%，同期利息收入增長131%，利息支出增長108%。

It is worth to remember the change in the valuation model of the Argentine Central Bank Paper, Leliqs, acquired from January 1, 2023. These instruments used to be valued at fair value, and the criteria was changed to amortized costs, thus each year is being recorded as interest income instead of within results from financial instruments.

值得記住的是，自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起收購的阿根廷央行票據 Leliqs 的估值模型發生了變化。這些工具過去以公允價值估值，標準改為攤餘成本，因此每年記錄為利息收入，而不是記錄在金融工具的結果中。

Net fee income increased 15% from June 2022 mainly due to a 27% increase of fees related to bundle of products, 44% increase of fees and collections and a 19% higher fee income from deposit accounts. Net income from financial instruments decreased 73% as a consequence of the change in the valuation model of Central Bank Paper I have just mentioned.

淨費用收入較 2022 年 6 月增長 15%，主要是由於與捆綁產品相關的費用增加 27%、費用和託收費用增加 44%，以及存款賬戶費用收入增加 19%。由於我剛才提到的央行票據估值模型的變化，金融工具淨利潤下降了73%。

Gains from gold and FX quotation differences were 586% higher from the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. Other operating income increased 109% in the quarter. As a result of the 138% increase in other adjustments and interest and miscellaneous receivables as a consequence of the valuation of financial instruments granted in guarantees.

黃金和外匯報價差異帶來的收益比去年同期高出 586%，其中包括外匯交易的結果。該季度其他營業收入增長 109%。由於對擔保中授予的金融工具進行估值，其他調整以及利息和雜項應收款增加了 138%。

As regards provision for loan losses, the amount for the quarter was 8% lower than those recorded in the year ago quarter, reaching ARS 14.8 billion. Personnel expenses were 4% higher than in the second quarter of 2022, in line with an increase of staff while administrative expenses were 3% higher due to a 24% increase of taxes.

至於貸款損失撥備，本季度金額比去年同期下降 8%，達到 148 億阿根廷比索。與 2022 年第二季度相比，人員費用增加了 4%，與員工數量的增加一致，而由於稅收增加了 24%，行政費用增加了 3%。

Other operating expenses increased 70% due to an 80% higher turnover tax due to an increase in the gross income tax from financial operations as a consequence of the increase in the holding of Leliqs and 57% higher charges for other provisions related to discounts on credit cards and payroll accounts.

其他運營費用增加 70%，原因是增持 Leliqs 導致金融業務總所得稅增加，流轉稅增加 80%，以及與信貸折扣相關的其他撥備費用增加 57%卡和工資帳戶。

The income tax charge was ARS 17.1 billion higher than in the second quarter of 2022, with an effective tax rate of 25%. The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 1.58 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 13% in the last 12 months with peso-denominated loans decreasing 13% and dollar-denominated loans 20%.

所得稅費用比 2022 年第二季度增加 171 億阿根廷比索，有效稅率為 25%。截至本季度末，該銀行對私營部門的融資達到1.58 萬億阿根廷比索，在過去12 個月內下降了13%，其中以比索計價的貸款減少了13%，以美元計價的貸款減少了20% 。

Exposure to the public sector increased 22% year-over-year due to a 36% increase in the holding of Leliqs. Excluding the exposure to the Central Bank, Leliqs and repurchase agreement transactions, net exposure represented 13% of total assets, the same level as of the end of the second quarter of 2022.

由於 Leliqs 的持有量增加了 36%，公共部門的風險敞口同比增加了 22%。不包括央行、Leliqs和回購協議交易的敞口，淨敞口占總資產的13%，與2022年第二季度末的水平相同。

Deposits reached ARS 2.95 trillion, 1% lower than a year before, mainly due to a 34% decrease of checking accounts in pesos partially offset by a 34% higher balance of other deposits in pesos. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 11.77%, 30 basis points lower than at the end of the year ago quarter and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 9.92%, 24 basis points lower than in the same quarter of last year.

存款達到2.95萬億阿根廷比索，比上年減少1%，主要是由於比索支票賬戶減少34%，部分被比索其他存款餘額增加34%所抵消。該行預計私營部門貸款市場份額為11.77%，較上季度末下降30個基點；私營部門存款市場份額為9.92%，較上季度末下降24個基點去年的。

The bank's liquid assets represented 123% of transactional deposits and 58% of total deposits up from 91% and 50%, respectively, from a year before. As regards to asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 2.65%, reporting a 49 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2.16% of the second quarter of the prior year. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 161%, down 57 percentage points from the 218% recorded a year ago.

該銀行的流動資產佔交易性存款的123%和總存款的58%，而去年同期分別為91%和50%。資產質量方面，本季度不良貸款佔融資總額的比率為2.65%，較去年第二季度的2.16%下降49個基點。與此同時，補貼覆蓋率達到161%，比一年前的218%下降了57個百分點。

As of the end of June 2023, the bank's total regulatory capital reached 23.64% decreasing 45 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2022.

截至2023年6月末，該行監管資本總額達23.64%，較2022年同季末下降45個基點。

In summary, in a particularly challenging and volatile macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity and solvency metrics at healthy levels and to significantly improve its profitability in spite of the significant impact of the high inflation of the quarter.

綜上所述，在特別具有挑戰性和波動性的宏觀環境下，儘管本季度高通脹造成了重大影響，加利西亞金融集團仍能夠將資產質量、流動性和償付能力指標保持在健康水平，並顯著提高盈利能力。

We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have.

我們現在準備回答您可能提出的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll first hear from Brian Flores of Citibank.

（操作員指示）我們將首先聽取花旗銀行布萊恩·弗洛雷斯的發言。

Just 2 questions on my side. The first one is a midterm strategic one regarding the positioning of some candidates with the Central Bank. Given that we now have a bit more visibility on what they are intending to do with the Central Bank, should we expect any reduction in your exposure before the election? And if you could share any color on your conversations that you've had with, any approaches on the candidate teams, it would be great. And I'll do my second question afterwards.

我這邊只有兩個問題。第一個是中期戰略，涉及央行一些候選人的定位。鑑於我們現在對他們打算對央行做什麼有了更多的了解，我們是否應該期望在大選前您的風險敞口會有所減少？如果您可以分享您所進行的對話中的任何顏色，以及候選人團隊的任何方法，那就太好了。之後我會回答第二個問題。

Well, when you were asking, the first idea that came to my mind is a statement made by the former congressmen saying that when you are far from becoming a President, meaning you have a low percentage of votes, you can have extreme statements. And when you come closer to becoming a President because you are having more votes, you become more cautious. So many of the statements actually made by Milei, that was a surprise with 30% of the votes were made when he was very far from becoming President.

嗯，當你問的時候，我想到的第一個想法是前國會議員的一個聲明，他們說，當你距離成為總統還很遠，也就是說你的得票率很低時，你可以發表極端的言論。當你因為擁有更多選票而接近成為總統時，你會變得更加謹慎。米萊實際上發表的許多言論，令人驚訝的是，30%的選票是在他距離成為總統還很遠的時候做出的。

Still today, I think the environment or the situation is very open because, first, the difference was very small between the 3 main candidates. 30% of Milei, 28% of Juntos por el Cambio, basically Macri's party and 27% Peronism with Kirchner. It's all So between the 385% with very small difference and with 70% of the voters actually voting. This is usual that in the primaries, there is a small or a smaller percentage of voters.

直到今天，我認為環境或情況仍然非常開放，因為，首先，三位主要候選人之間的差異非常小。 30％的米雷，28％的Juntos por el Cambio，基本上是馬克里的政黨，27％的庇隆主義和基什內爾。 385% 的選民之間的差距非常小，而 70% 的選民實際投票，一切都是如此。在初選中，選民比例很小或更少，這是很常見的情況。

So when we come to the elections in October, we think that perhaps will be more than, I don't know, 2 million voters adding to this small difference. So really, we are in an open situation. But what we think as a clear message is that almost 2/3 of the population with some kind of change of regime.

因此，當我們進入 10 月份的選舉時，我們認為，我不知道，也許會有超過 200 萬選民增加這一微小的差異。事實上，我們處於開放的局面。但我們認為一個明確的信息是，近 2/3 的人口經歷了某種形式的政權更迭。

As with this change of regime, really it's very difficult to make forecasts. Some well, delay in particular, speaking about dollarization some of his advisers are saying that it's not really a full dollarization that will take some time in the second wave of measures, others speak about the monetary economy, meaning that we could have contracts in dollars. But everybody is thinking that the key measures to balance or improve the economy is to reduce the fiscal deficit, and we are happy with that. That will mean there will be less monetary expansion and less Leliqs going forward.

對於這種政權更迭，確實很難做出預測。有些人，特別是延遲，談到美元化，他的一些顧問說，這並不是真正的完全美元化，第二波措施需要一些時間，其他人談到貨幣經濟，這意味著我們可以用美元簽訂合同。但大家都認為平衡或改善經濟的關鍵措施是減少財政赤字，我們對此感到高興。這將意味著未來的貨幣擴張和萊利克斯將會減少。

So in the midterm strategy, as you said, we are happy with the exposure to the Central Bank and with the government papers basically because we are seeing deposits growing in line with inflation and loans growing around 10 to 15 percentage points below inflation. So that gap is invested in both 28 days Central Bank paper, the Leliqs and in government paper that basically are tied to inflation and allow us to hedge against inflation.

因此，在中期策略中，正如您所說，我們對央行和政府文件的敞口感到滿意，基本上是因為我們看到存款隨通脹增長，而貸款增長低於通脹約 10 至 15 個百分點。因此，這一缺口投資於 28 天央行票據、Leliqs 和政府票據，這些票據基本上與通貨膨脹掛鉤，使我們能夠對沖通貨膨脹。

Sorry, if the answer was too long, but I wanted to include the political environment, not only the potential measures of the candidates.

抱歉，如果答案太長，但我想包括政治環境，而不僅僅是候選人的潛在措施。

And my second question is a bit on asset quality. I just wanted to understand what are you seeing there? Because as you mentioned, loan growth is still below deposits and inflation growth. So just wanting to understand a bit more, what are you seeing there on asset quality and if this is a concern going forward when you decide to finally reaccelerate longer?

我的第二個問題是關於資產質量的。我只是想了解你在那裡看到了什麼？因為正如您提到的，貸款增長仍然低於存款和通脹增長。因此，我只是想更多地了解一下，您對資產質量有何看法，以及當您決定最終重新加速更長時間時，這是否是一個令人擔憂的問題？

Well, asset quality has been deteriorating slightly really from very low levels. In the case of the bank, it became from 2.16 to 2.65 the NPLs. So really very, very low.

嗯，資產質量確實從非常低的水平開始略有惡化。以銀行為例，不良貸款從 2.16 增至 2.65。所以真的非常非常低。

If you think in an economy that is not growing this high level of inflation, economic and political uncertainty, one could think of much higher ratios of NPLs. Also coverage is very healthy above 160%. We could expect some slight deterioration going forward for the second half of the year, but really nothing dramatic as I many times repeat.

如果你認為一個經濟體沒有出現如此高水平的通貨膨脹、經濟和政治不確定性，那麼你可能會想到不良貸款率要高得多。覆蓋率也非常健康，高於 160%。我們預計下半年情況會出現輕微惡化，但正如我多次重複的那樣，實際上並沒有什麼戲劇性的變化。

I'm sorry, if I'm becoming a lot of -- I repeat a lot this concept, as inflation is very high and many of the loans were granted very short term with fixed interest rates, really, the installments become diluted and it's easy for both companies and individuals to pay back their loans.

我很抱歉，如果我變得很多——我經常重複這個概念，因為通貨膨脹非常高，許多貸款都是以固定利率發放的，期限非常短，實際上，分期付款被稀釋了，而且企業和個人都可以輕鬆償還貸款。

The other side of the coin is that with this high of inflation, we have a negative impact on the (foreign language) in Spanish or the monetary loss due to inflation. So we could see some slight deterioration, but nothing really dramatic. If I had to say less than 3% NPLs at the (inaudible) level at the end of the year.

硬幣的另一面是，由於通貨膨脹如此之高，我們對西班牙語（外語）或通貨膨脹造成的貨幣損失產生了負面影響。所以我們可以看到一些輕微的惡化，但沒有什麼真正引人注目的。如果我不得不說，年底不良貸款率（聽不清）低於 3%。

Perfect, Pablo. And just if I can, just a final question. With these circumstances and this very strong quarter, are you revising your ROE guidance for 2023?

完美，巴勃羅。如果可以的話，我想問最後一個問題。鑑於這些情況和這個非常強勁的季度，您是否會修改 2023 年的 ROE 指導？

Well, this high ROE quarter gives us a higher forecast. I would say that around 15% for the full year, the original estimates were around 10%. So in the area of 15%, 14% perhaps also. We have to see, of course, how the pass-through of this deviation goes to inflation, and while inflation has a direct impact on this item, that I mentioned, the monetary loss due to inflation, but also it has impacts on interest rates, loan demand, deposits fees, administrative expenses. But we got a thinking that, I would say, in the base case scenario, we should have an increase of the order I mentioned.

嗯，這個高 ROE 季度給了我們更高的預測。我想說全年大概是15%左右，原來的估計是10%左右。所以在 15% 的範圍內，也許也在 14% 的範圍內。當然，我們必須看到這種偏差如何傳遞到通貨膨脹，雖然通貨膨脹對這個項目有直接影響，我提到過，通貨膨脹造成的貨幣損失，但它也會對利率產生影響、貸款需求、存款費用、管理費用。但我們有一個想法，我想說，在基本情況下，我們應該增加我提到的訂單。

Next, we'll hear from Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America.

接下來，我們將聽取美國銀行埃內斯托·加比隆多 (Ernesto Gabilondo) 的發言。

I have 3 questions from my side. The first one will be on the political outlook. How much power does President have in Argentina to make decisions related to IMF negotiations or to dollarize the country or to make changes to the Central Bank? I think some of the decisions need to pass to Congress, but some decisions can be taken by himself.

我這邊有 3 個問題。第一個是關於政治前景。阿根廷總統有多大權力來做出與國際貨幣基金組織談判相關的決定、將該國美元化或對中央銀行進行改革？我認為有些決定需要傳遞給國會，但有些決定可以由他自己做出。

And then my second question will be on your investment strategy. So we continue to see high inflation levels, high interest rates, further depreciation of the currency. So how is Galicia positioning to navigate under this volatility? I don't know how your positions, bonds related to inflation or investments related to FX will be interesting?

我的第二個問題是關於您的投資策略。因此，我們繼續看到高通脹水平、高利率、貨幣進一步貶值。那麼，加利西亞如何應對這種波動呢？我不知道您的頭寸、與通脹相關的債券或與外匯相關的投資會如何有趣？

And then my last question is on how should we think about the loan growth under this economic variables? And how should we think about the ROE next year considering that this year you have been benefiting because of the gains on investment securities and FX, but once we start to see a normalization, once we start to see lower rates, how should we think about the ROE?

那麼我的最後一個問題是，我們應該如何看待這種經濟變量下的貸款增長？考慮到今年您因投資證券和外彙的收益而受益，我們應該如何考慮明年的股本回報率，但一旦我們開始看到正常化，一旦我們開始看到較低的利率，我們應該如何考慮股本回報率？

First, regarding the political power of a President, I guess you are thinking, if Milei comes to office, if he will be able to put together certain reforms that he would like to have or at least he saying that. Most of the changes must be done by law in Congress. He will not. If he repeats the election of the primaries, he will not have any, I would say, important process in Congress. So he will need to have agreements or alliances, the most rational type of alliance would be with a Macri's party, Juntos por el Cambio. Between the 2, they could have a quorum and have laws that they can make reforms.

首先，關於總統的政治權力，我猜你在想，如果米萊上任，他是否能夠實施他想要的某些改革，或者至少他是這麼說的。大多數改變必須通過國會法律來完成。他不會。如果他重複進行初選，我想說，他在國會不會有任何重要的程序。因此，他需要達成協議或結盟，最合理的聯盟類型是與馬克里的政黨 Juntos por el Cambio 結盟。兩者之間，他們可以擁有法定人數並製定可以進行改革的法律。

In terms of investments. Sorry, I don't know if you have a comment on that.

在投資方面。抱歉，不知道您對此有何評論。

In that question, so we know that Milei will need to have agreements in order to make structural changes. What are the things that he can do? What can he do?

在這個問題上，我們知道 Milei 需要達成協議才能進行結構性改變。他可以做哪些事情？他能做什麼？

Well, first, in my opinion, it's not clear if his advisers fully agree with certain speeches. The main idea -- economic idea he has been saying is dollarization. From a practical standpoint, many even also the economies are saying that it's impossible, not only in the short term, but in the medium term, too. Others are saying that in order to get to a dollarization, you have to make a lot of homework, basically reducing the fiscal deficit and actual becoming a super avid, not a deficit or a surplus.

嗯，首先，在我看來，尚不清楚他的顧問是否完全同意某些演講。他一直在說的主要思想——經濟思想是美元化。從實際角度來看，許多人甚至經濟體都表示這是不可能的，不僅在短期內，而且在中期也是如此。其他人則說，為了實現美元化，你必須做很多功課，基本上是減少財政赤字，並真正成為超級狂熱者，而不是赤字或盈餘。

And so this type of economies, if you do the homework, why dollarize, it makes no sense. Others are saying that they would like to have 2 currencies so that we can have contracts in dollars, but any big reform they must be, I would say, approved by Congress. And that's why I'm saying that he must negotiate and have alliances. Even as I mentioned in the past or earlier in this call, when you have, I don't know, 20% of the votes, you can say I will close ministers, I will go from 20-plus ministers to 8 and fire off all the people. Now that he got 30, he's saying, well, I will close certain ministers, I will create secretaries, not ministers, and I will not fire the people against the ones that are political people that were put there as a favor.

因此，對於這種類型的經濟體，如果你做好功課，為什麼要美元化，這是沒有意義的。其他人說他們希望有兩種貨幣，這樣我們就可以用美元簽訂合同，但我想說，任何重大改革都必須得到國會的批准。這就是為什麼我說他必須談判並結盟。即使正如我過去或在本次電話會議早些時候提到的，當你擁有，我不知道，20％的選票時，你可以說我將關閉部長，我將從20 多名部長減少到8 名，然後解僱所有人。現在他已經30歲了，他說，好吧，我將關閉某些部長，我將設立秘書，而不是部長，我不會解僱人民反對那些作為恩惠而放在那裡的政治人物。

So I think he will have to become part of what he is, I would say, criticizing. He keeps speaking about the political [cast] or a group of people with a lot of power that take decisions for themselves, but he will have to have this support and alliances in Congress. So in my opinion, many of the ideas or projects will take time, and they will need some kind of support.

所以我認為他必須成為他所批評的一部分。他一直在談論政治[演員]或一群擁有很大權力的人為自己做決定，但他必須得到國會的支持和聯盟。所以在我看來，許多想法或項目都需要時間，並且需要某種支持。

Well, going to the second question.

好吧，進入第二個問題。

So in the Central Bank, can he do some changes? Or he doesn't have the power to do that?

那麼在央行方面，他能不能做一些改變呢？還是他沒有權力這麼做？

Well, typically, all the members of the Board of the Central Bank must have the approval of the senators. We are now with some kind of anomaly that some members of the Central Bank are not yet approved, but they are working. But the rule of law, what the law says is that the Senators must approve the members of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank.

一般來說，中央銀行董事會的所有成員都必須得到參議員的批准。我們現在遇到了某種異常情況，即中央銀行的一些成員尚未獲得批准，但他們正在工作。但是法治，法律規定中央銀行董事會成員必須由參議員批准。

In terms of investments, first, I will mention the dollar position. We cannot be long in dollars in the spot, we have -- the net position must be 0. We can go long in dollars through forward contracts that could be up to 5% of the regulatory capital. Sometimes we are longer than or shorter depending on the situation, what are the interest rates, the yield on different financial instruments.

在投資方面，首先我會提到美元頭寸。我們不能在現貨中做多美元，我們的淨頭寸必須為 0。我們可以通過遠期合約做多美元，最高可達監管資本的 5%。有時我們會根據情況，利率，不同金融工具的收益率，來長或短。

I would say that the risk appetite is to -- need to have this type of government exposure, meaning the national treasury, not the central bank, around 13% of total assets and basically instruments tied to inflation that protects us against the inflation with 2 months lag that is -- so it's not a perfect coverage, but in the medium term, it covers your liquid network.

我想說的是，風險偏好是——需要這種類型的政府風險敞口，這意味著國家財政部，而不是中央銀行，約佔總資產的13％，並且基本上是與通貨膨脹相關的工具，可以保護我們免受2 通貨膨脹的影響。幾個月的滯後——所以這不是一個完美的覆蓋，但從中期來看，它覆蓋了你的液體網絡。

And the third question was regarding loan growth. With this level of inflation that implies the high level of interest rates we are not seeing recovery in loan demand in real terms. So we need definitely a change in the economic regime that will attack inflation and in a bill to cycle, interest rates going down.

第三個問題是關於貸款增長。由於這種通貨膨脹水平意味著高利率，我們並沒有看到貸款需求的實際復甦。因此，我們絕對需要改變經濟體制，以打擊通貨膨脹，並製定循環法案，降低利率。

We don't need inflation to go to levels of, I don't know, 10%-20% have real loan growth. Actually, with 50% inflation in the past, and in some quarters or years, we have positive loan growth. But definitely, with 3-digit inflation is not possible. So ROEs going forward in this scenario of bill to cycle, in my opinion, should be better for banks because loan demand will expand. Right now, loans to GDP is very, very low, around 9%. So really very low.

我們不需要通貨膨脹達到 10%-20% 的水平，我不知道，實際貸款增長。事實上，在過去50%的通貨膨脹率下，在某些季度或年份，我們的貸款出現了正增長。但毫無疑問，三位數的通貨膨脹是不可能的。因此，在我看來，在這種逐週期的情況下，淨資產收益率對銀行來說應該更好，因為貸款需求將會擴大。目前，貸款佔 GDP 的比重非常非常低，約為 9%。所以真的非常低。

So if inflation goes down, interest rates goes down and volume expands significantly and it helps us to make projections and better projections and decisions to invest and to grow not only as a bank, as a holding company, Grupo Financiero Galicia has already invested in an insurance company and also our clients can have a clear horizon in order to invest. There are lots of projects in oil and gas, mining, agricultural sector, digital economy. So there is a lot of possibilities out there, but we need definitely a much healthier macro economy.

因此，如果通貨膨脹下降，利率下降，交易量顯著擴大，這有助於我們做出預測和更好的預測和決策，不僅作為一家銀行，而且作為一家控股公司，Grupo Financiero Galicia 已經投資了一家投資和發展公司。保險公司和我們的客戶都可以有清晰的投資視野。石油天然氣、採礦業、農業、數字經濟等領域都有很多項目。因此，存在很多可能性，但我們絕對需要一個更健康的宏觀經濟。

Perfect. So just on the last one. So once we have better economic outlook and stronger loan growth, do you think that will be enough, this year the banks are benefiting a lot from the investment securities positions and FX. I think, that is likely not to continue next year. So do you think that with the stronger loan growth should be able to offset lower yield from the securities portfolio?

完美的。所以只看最後一個。因此，一旦我們有更好的經濟前景和更強勁的貸款增長，您認為這就足夠了，今年銀行從投資證券頭寸和外匯中受益匪淺。我認為，明年這種情況可能不會持續。那麼，您認為貸款增長強勁應該能夠抵消證券投資組合收益率下降的影響嗎？

Well, we have to see the speed of that. Many times the speed of changes in Argentina surprised everybody. But I would say, yes, the compression in margin should be similar, let's say, to the increase in volume in loans and with lower inflation, the monetary loss to inflation will be lower. So ROE should be, I would say, around 15%, that would be a target, medium-term target and perhaps with a much healthier mix, not just from -- or mainly due to high interest from Leliqs and government paper.

好吧，我們必須看看它的速度。很多時候，阿根廷的變化速度讓所有人都感到驚訝。但我想說，是的，保證金的壓縮應該與貸款量的增加類似，並且隨著通貨膨脹的降低，通貨膨脹造成的貨幣損失將會更低。因此，我想說，ROE 應該在 15% 左右，這將是一個目標、中期目標，也許還有一個更健康的組合，而不僅僅是來自——或者主要是由於 Leliqs 和政府文件的高度興趣。

Next, we'll hear from Yuri Fernandes of JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯 (Yuri Fernandes) 的發言。

I had just returning on this on FX. If you can comment on the develop of August and your base case for the currency during the year. And like if you are calling for a further to evolve or not, what is your base case? You discussed your FX gap, how it increased this quarter. So I guess you are being prepared for that. But I would like to understand, like the moving parts, how this impact you? And what is your base case for potential development in Argentina?

我剛剛在 FX 上回顧了這一點。您能否評論一下八月的發展以及全年貨幣的基本情況。就像您是否呼籲進一步發展一樣，您的基本情況是什麼？您討論了外匯缺口以及本季度的增長情況。所以我想你已經做好了準備。但我想了解，就像活動部件一樣，這對您有何影響？您在阿根廷潛在發展的基本情況是什麼？

Sorry, I couldn't hear you very properly. You said a potential default?

抱歉，我聽不清楚。你說可能違約？

No. The valuation of the currency, right? The peso devaluated maybe 20% now in August. I guess there are some economies that they are calling for further devaluations after elections. So I would like to hear your base case, what Galicia is calling for potential evolves and the impact for you, because it seems our balance sheet has been more prepared like you're increasing your FX gap. So also, how potential develop impact you?

不，貨幣的估值，對嗎？ 8月份比索貶值了大約20%。我想有些經濟體呼籲在選舉後進一步貶值。因此，我想听聽您的基本情況、加利西亞所呼籲的潛在發展以及對您的影響，因為我們的資產負債表似乎已經做好了準備，就像您正在增加外匯缺口一樣。那麼，潛力的發展對你有何影響？

As I mentioned, we cannot be long in dollars in the spots. So there the position must be zero. We can go long in dollars up to 5% of our regulatory capital with forward contracts. We have 1, I would say, waiver or different instruments that are the dual bonds that with devaluation, we get that benefit, and it's not within the zero position in the spot.

正如我所提到的，我們不能長期持有美元。所以位置必須為零。我們可以通過遠期合約做多美元，最高可達監管資本的 5%。我想說，我們有一種豁免或不同的工具，它們是雙重債券，隨著貶值，我們可以獲得這種好處，而且它不在現貨的零位置內。

So in August, after this devaluation, you could see a benefit for the next quarter of that devaluation. But in theory, if we sell or we have no dual bonds, there is no instant impact on devaluation. Of course, we have to look at our clients. Really, what happens in most of the cases is that the private sector in Argentina is very long in dollars. And the public sector is the one that is short in dollars. So really, there is a kind of wealth effect with the devaluation.

因此，在八月份，在這次貶值之後，您可以看到下一個季度的貶值帶來的好處。但從理論上講，如果我們出售或沒有雙重債券，不會立即對貶值產生影響。當然，我們還得看看我們的客戶。事實上，在大多數情況下，阿根廷的私營部門都持有大量美元。而公共部門是美元短缺的部門。所以實際上，貶值會產生一種財富效應。

What is hard to forecast right now is what will be the pass-through to inflation of the devaluation of the official exchange rate. Because the imports have been controlled or restricted, many importers have been pricing their products at different exchange rates, not the official one that is allowed for importers. But I would say that in general, the impact for banks of the devaluation is not a -- direct one comes from the impact of our clients, and again, could be, I would say, better.

目前很難預測官方匯率貶值將如何傳導至通脹。由於進口受到控製或限制，許多進口商一直以不同的匯率為其產品定價，而不是允許進口商使用的官方匯率。但我想說的是，總的來說，貶值對銀行的影響並不是直接來自我們客戶的影響，而且我想說，可能會更好。

And one other thing is that most of the economists are saying that the financial dollars are too expensive and the official one perhaps is too cheap. So something -- but with this 20% increase to 350, we are getting closer to a more, I would say, rational or dollar or effects of equilibrium. We don't need to go to 650 or 700. Good exchange rate must be much lower than that.

另一件事是，大多數經濟學家都說金融美元太貴，而官方美元可能太便宜。所以，隨著 20% 的增長達到 350，我想說，我們越來越接近理性或美元或均衡效應。我們不需要去650或700。好的匯率一定比這個低很多。

Got it. So basically, you make more money on financial income on the deval, but also higher inflation hurts your results from net monetary, like the inflation results. So one offset the other, but maybe your clients, they make more money, you have more deposits. So net-net, maybe it's more positive if there are further devaluations in Argentina, right? Is that correct?

知道了。所以基本上，你在貶值時通過財務收入賺更多的錢，但更高的通貨膨脹也會損害你的淨貨幣結果，就像通貨膨脹結果一樣。所以一個抵消另一個，但也許你的客戶，他們賺更多的錢，你有更多的存款。因此，如果阿根廷進一步貶值，也許情況會更積極，對吧？那是對的嗎？

Yes, yes. And 1 thing is there is normalization of the FX market. Let's say, instead of having so many exchange rates, the 1 that would be at the end in the market perhaps being much lower than the current financial dollars could imply that the conversion of our numbers from peso to dollars will be done at a lower exchange rate, and we could have an improvement in valuations. Because right now, the blue chip swap appears to be very high.

是的是的。一件事是外匯市場正常化。比方說，不是有這麼多的匯率，市場最終的 1 可能比當前的金融美元低得多，這可能意味著我們的數字從比索到美元的轉換將以較低的匯率進行率，我們的估值可能會有所改善。因為現在藍籌股掉期似乎非常高。

And Pablo, just returning to the previous discussions about Leliqs, and the dollarization of the economy, I guess, Ocampo has been a little bit more, well, it may take some time, as you said, 2 years. But how to do that? Like how to replace the Leliqs and how to implement some dollarization. Do you have any guess on how to do it?

巴勃羅，剛剛回到之前關於萊利克斯的討論，以及經濟的美元化，我想，奧坎波已經多了一點，嗯，這可能需要一些時間，正如你所說的，兩年。但如何做到這一點呢？比如如何更換 Leliqs 以及如何實現一定程度的美元化。您對如何做有任何猜測嗎？

Well, there were some interviews in which he said that he would create a trust in which the government or the Central Bank will include all the government paper they have, even they say what the public pension fund has in different financial assets, equity, bonds and so on. And in order they will get dollars and this fund in this bill to cycle will be able to be revalued.

嗯，在一些採訪中，他說他將創建一個信託，政府或中央銀行將把他們擁有的所有政府文件都包含在其中，甚至他們說公共養老基金在不同的金融資產、股票、債券中擁有什麼等等。為了讓他們獲得美元，這筆資金在這個賬單週期中將能夠重新估值。

But the second question would be if there is a dollarization, what the government would do with the government bonds in pesos and Leliqs. Many times, this type of projects are easy to comment in an Excel or in a PowerPoint, but again, it's very difficult to implement and again, I heard many of the Milei's advisers that are not or don't agree really with all the ideas or procedures. So really, it's not very certain to comment on that. Now it's like more than a rumor, but it's not a fact to comment on this type of idea.

但第二個問題是，如果美元化，政府將如何處理以比索和萊利克斯計價的政府債券。很多時候，此類項目很容易在 Excel 或 PowerPoint 中進行評論，但實施起來卻非常困難，而且我聽到許多 Milei 的顧問並不同意或併不真正同意所有想法或程序。所以說真的，對此發表評論並不是很確定。現在這不僅僅是一個謠言，但對這種想法進行評論並不是事實。

Next, we'll hear from Carlos Gomez of HSBC.

接下來，我們將聽取匯豐銀行卡洛斯·戈麥斯的發言。

Congratulations on a very strong results. I have 2 questions. The first one refers to your margin. I mean, this is the reason why your interest income is so high. You went from a NIM as reported by you from 19% to 28%. Is this just a result of interest rates going up or is there something else, perhaps some timing differences or some particular instruments that yielded extraordinary gains? Is this a normal interest rate, interest income that you would receive for as long as interest rates stay at the current levels or actually they are higher than they were when you had this? So essentially, how much of this interest income is your ordinary interest income? And how much could be especially for some reason or another?

祝賀取得了非常強勁的成果。我有 2 個問題。第一個是指您的保證金。我的意思是，這就是你的利息收入這麼高的原因。您報告的 NIM 從 19% 上升到 28%。這僅僅是利率上升的結果還是有其他原因，也許是一些時間差異或一些產生非凡收益的特定工具？這是正常利率嗎？只要利率保持在當前水平，您就會收到利息收入，還是實際上利率高於您當時的水平？那麼本質上來說，這個利息收入中有多少是你的普通利息收入呢？出於某種原因，有多少可能是特別的？

And the second question, totally unrelated is, what's happening with Naranja? You have almost have breakeven for 2 quarters. Is there anything that is happening at the consumer subsidiary? And what can we expect for it going forward?

第二個問題，完全不相關的是，Naranja 發生了什麼事？兩個季度您幾乎實現了盈虧平衡。消費者子公司發生了什麼事情嗎？我們對它的未來有何期待？

Well, Carlos. As you said, there was a margin expansion. I would say that the main reasons are the Leliqs and the government paper. There were very high, not only high interest rates and yields, there were also some sales of certain instruments at good prices. So if I had to -- it's very volatile, and we have to see if the interest rate keeps at this level of 119%. But actually, this new level was established after the close or actually in August.

嗯，卡洛斯。正如您所說，利潤率有所擴大。我想說主要原因是萊利克斯和政府文件。不僅利率和收益率非常高，而且某些工具也以良好的價格出售。因此，如果我不得不這樣做的話——它的波動性很大，我們必須看看利率是否保持在 119% 的水平。但實際上，這個新水平是在收盤後或實際上是在八月份建立的。

I am not seeing those numbers in the second quarter release, we are discussing. So perhaps there could be some contraction, but 200 basis points or so, because we are in a very high interest rate environment due to the high inflation.

我沒有在我們正在討論的第二季度發布中看到這些數字。因此，也許可能會出現一些收縮，但大約是 200 個基點左右，因為由於高通脹，我們處於非常高的利率環境中。

In the case of Naranja, if you look at Naranja X as it was called (inaudible) when you look at the net operating income or operating income, you see growth. Actually, the operating income has 40% growth compared to the second quarter of the previous year. The thing is that the results from the monetary position had a big impact. And also, they had much higher income tax. They are very sensitive to high inflation. So the bottom line is subject to this impact on high inflation. From an operational standpoint, is doing very well, growing not only with the traditional business of credit cards, but also with the newer business of taking deposits in order to have a cheaper funding and having more merchants and becoming a full digital company. So basically, from an operational standpoint, no problem, very sensitive to high inflation.

就 Naranja 而言，如果您在查看淨營業收入或營業收入時查看所謂的 Naranja X（聽不清），您會看到增長。事實上，營業收入比去年第二季度增長了40%。問題是貨幣狀況的結果產生了很大的影響。而且，他們的所得稅要高得多。他們對高通脹非常敏感。所以底線是受到這種高通脹的影響。從運營的角度來看，它做得非常好，不僅隨著傳統的信用卡業務的發展，而且隨著吸收存款的新業務的發展，以獲得更便宜的資金和擁有更多的商戶，並成為一家完全數字化的公司。所以基本上，從操作的角度來看，沒有問題，對高通脹非常敏感。

Okay. Going back to the margin. So again, you say that, as you said, the latest increase in interest rate of 118% came after the end of the quarter. So all else being equal, should we expect, therefore, your interest income and your margin to be higher in the third quarter than in the second quarter?

好的。回到邊緣。所以，你再說一遍，正如你所說，最近一次利率上漲 118% 是在季度末之後發生的。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們是否應該預期第三季度的利息收入和利潤率會高於第二季度？

The thing is that we had some sales of some instruments with again, that's why I'm saying that perhaps you will see some kind of compression. But yes, keeping -- taking out that with higher interest rates, typically, we have higher margins. Although as you can see, the breakdown of deposits have been changing and each time, we have a higher percentage of deposits with cost. One year ago, perhaps if you look at deposits in pesos, they used to 50% and deposits, 50% transactional accounts. Now it's closer to 75%, 25% -- 75% with costs. That's why you are seeing lower balances of taking account or saving accounts and growing balances of time deposits and other remunerated deposits.

問題是我們再次銷售了一些樂器，這就是為什麼我說也許你會看到某種壓縮。但是，是的，如果保持較高的利率，通常我們的利潤率會更高。儘管如您所見，存款的細目一直在變化，而且每次我們的成本存款百分比都更高。一年前，也許如果你看看比索存款，他們曾經佔 50%，而存款則佔 50% 的交易賬戶。現在已經接近 75%、25%——75% 了。這就是為什麼您會看到記賬賬戶或儲蓄賬戶餘額減少，而定期存款和其他有償存款餘額增加。

So your interest income this quarter was ARS 199 billion. How much of that would be represented by these gains from the sales of instruments?

因此，本季度您的利息收入為 1,990 億阿根廷比索。其中有多少是來自儀器銷售的收益？

I would say, ARS 10 billion or so.

我想說，100 億阿根廷比索左右。

So, that's not much?

那麼，這還不算多吧？

Well, the thing is that there are many moving parts, if you forecast next quarter, financial income. For example, what I mentioned regarding the bonds tied to inflation, the government paper, the Leliqs share, or bond shares, the ones that adjust by CPI, they have a lag of 2 months. So if inflation grows in the third quarter, despite us being hedged, we will get part of that in the fourth quarter. That's why it's not so direct the impact.

好吧，問題是，如果你預測下個季度的財務收入，就會有很多變化。例如，我提到的與通貨膨脹掛鉤的債券、政府票據、Leliqs股票或債券股票，根據CPI調整的債券，它們有2個月的滯後。因此，如果第三季度通脹上升，儘管我們進行了對沖，我們仍將在第四季度獲得部分通脹。這就是為什麼它的影響不那麼直接。

Okay. All right. So it's not straightforward. But again, everything indicates, given that inflation is still on the way up that you might continue to have higher interest income in the third and in the fourth quarter. I'm trying to reconcile that with the fact that you're saying you may have a 15% ROE for the year, everything would seem to indicate that, that has a very modest goal and that you may very well be at a higher level than that.

好的。好的。所以這並不簡單。但同樣，一切都表明，鑑於通脹仍在上升，第三季度和第四季度可能會繼續獲得更高的利息收入。我試圖調和這一事實，即您說今年的 ROE 可能為 15%，一切似乎都表明，目標非常溫和，而且您很可能處於更高的水平比起那個來說。

Well, depending on the assumptions you have on monthly inflation, from now on, that's very sensitive. And again, if you have, let's say, a 10% month inflation in August, you will get the benefits of the CPI adjusted bonds 2 months later. So with this big volumes or stops of bonds tied to inflation, it has an important impact, this 2 months delay.

嗯，根據你對每月通脹的假設，從現在開始，這是非常敏感的。再說一遍，如果 8 月份的月通脹率為 10%，那麼您將在 2 個月後獲得 CPI 調整後債券的收益。因此，由於與通貨膨脹相關的債券數量巨大或停止發行，這兩個月的延遲產生了重要影響。

Next, we'll hear from Nicolas Riva of Bank of America.

接下來，我們將聽取美國銀行尼古拉斯·里瓦 (Nicolas Riva) 的發言。

I just have a follow-up on what you were discussing with Yuri, your net position in dollars. You mentioned, if I understood correctly, that you cannot be net loan dollars in the spot market and only up to 5% of your equity in forward positions. Now if I look at the disclosure you have on your FX position, you mentioned the assets, the liabilities in dollars. And I do see a net long position of about at the official exchange rate. So I'm seeing essentially $1.2 billion net loan at the end of June and your position in forwards is very, very small. So I wanted to reconcile that with your comment saying that you cannot be that long in spot market.

我只是對您與尤里討論的內容進行跟進，即您的美元淨頭寸。您提到，如果我理解正確的話，您不能在現貨市場上淨貸美元，並且最多只能將 5% 的權益用於遠期頭寸。現在，如果我查看您對外匯頭寸的披露，您提到了美元資產和負債。我確實看到了按官方匯率計算的淨多頭頭寸。因此，我看到 6 月底的淨貸款基本上為 12 億美元，而您的遠期頭寸非常非常小。因此，我想將這一點與您的評論相一致，即您不能在現貨市場上呆那麼久。

Yes. There is what I kind of mentioned in some other question and answer, that the dual bonds are classified as dollar in that chart or in these numbers that you mentioned. And the same with Leliqs. Leliqs are our assets, both the dual bonds and Leliqs are in dollars, in that position, but they are both not considered in dollars for the regulatory net position. So you would have to deduct almost exactly the same number, $1.2 billion are Leliqs, last dual ones at the official exchange rate at the end of June, right? I don't know if I was clear. Basically, you have to deduct these 2 amounts.

是的。我在其他一些問題和答案中提到過，雙重債券在該圖表或您提到的這些數字中被歸類為美元。萊利克斯也是如此。 Leliqs 是我們的資產，雙重債券和 Leliqs 都以美元計價，但在監管淨頭寸中它們都不以美元計價。所以你必須扣除幾乎完全相同的數字，12 億美元是 Leliqs，按照 6 月底的官方匯率計算的最後一個雙倍，對嗎？不知道我說清楚了沒有。基本上，你必須扣除這2筆金額。

Okay. But I guess Pablo...

好的。但我猜巴勃羅...

It's a kind of waiver of the Central Bank.

這是中央銀行的一種豁免。

Let's say that in the fourth quarter, change in government and they lift all the restrictions in FX and the official FX jumps basically 2x the level of the blue FX. In that case, would you have big paper gains like gains in your income statement because of that or not?

假設在第四季度，政府發生變化，他們取消了外彙的所有限制，官方外彙的漲幅基本上是藍色外匯水平的兩倍。在這種情況下，您是否會因此而獲得巨大的賬面收益，例如損益表中的收益？

If we have, for example, the dual bonds, yes. If we have forward contracts, yes. For the rest, it should be neutral because we must have a zero position. And again, we have to see other type of things of not only our clients, but also if we have what percentage of our expenses are in dollars, our subordinated bond, the $250 million, but there are many other, I would say, byproducts of that. But again, I would like to say that in our opinion, if there is going to be a devaluation with the next government, it shouldn't be that high.

例如，如果我們有雙重債券，是的。如果我們有遠期合同，是的。對於其餘的，它應該是中立的，因為我們必須有一個零位置。再說一次，我們不僅要看到我們客戶的其他類型的事情，而且還要看到我們的開支中美元的比例是多少，我們的次級債券，2.5億美元，但我想說的是，還有很多其他副產品的。但我想說，在我們看來，如果下一屆政府要貶值，那麼貶值不應該那麼高。

The financial dollars today are too high. The blue chip swap, the blue dollar in the street, so most of the economists are saying that should be something in the middle or even lower than in the middle.

今天的金融美元太高了。藍籌互換，街上的藍色美元，所以大多數經濟學家都說應該在中間，甚至低於中間。

It appears there are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our presenter for any additional or closing comments.

目前似乎沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給我們的主持人，以獲取任何補充或結束意見。

Okay. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.

好的。感謝大家參加這次電話會議。如果您還有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。早上好。再見。

That does conclude today's call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。