Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia second-quarter 2025 earnings call. This conference is being recorded and the replay will be available at the company's website at GFGSA.com. We would like to inform that all attendees will only be listening to the conference during the presentation, and then we will start the question and answer section when further instructions will be provided.

女士們、先生們，早安。歡迎參加加利西亞金融集團 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中，回放將在公司網站 GFGSA.com 上提供。我們在此提醒，所有與會者只能在演示期間收聽會議內容，之後我們將在另行通知後開始問答環節。

Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US Federal Securities law and are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry, and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in their respective forward-looking statements.

本次電話會議中的部分聲明將屬於美國聯邦證券法安全港條款所定義的前瞻性聲明，並受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與所表達的結果有重大差異。投資者應注意與宏觀經濟情景、金融業和其他因素相關的事件，這些事件可能會導致結果與各自前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

現在，我將會議交給投資者關係主管 Pablo Firvida 先生。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Sophia. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a quick speech. I'm here with Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro, CFO of Grupo and of the Bank. Later, he will make some additional comments, and of course, we will be both available for Q&A.

謝謝你，索菲亞。早上好，歡迎參加本次電話會議。我將簡短地發表演說。我和 Grupo 及銀行的財務長 Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro 一起來到這裡。稍後，他會發表一些補充評論，當然，我們都會回答提問。

According to the monthly indicator of economic activity, MI, the Argentine economy recorded a 6.4% year-over-year increase during June, reaching an expansion of 6.2% during the first half of 2025. During the second quarter, the primary surplus reached 0.4% of GDP and the overall surplus was 0.2% of GDP, explained by primary revenues increasing 37.7% year-over-year whereas primary spending rose 42.1%. During the first seven months of 2025, the primary balance stood at 1.1% of GDP, while the financial balance amounted to 0.3% of GDP. The National Consumer Price index accumulated a 6% increase during the second quarter of 2025 and 17.3% year-to-date increase as of July.

根據月度經濟活動指標MI，阿根廷經濟6月年增6.4%，2025年上半年成長6.2%。第二季度，基本盈餘達到 GDP 的 0.4%，整體盈餘為 GDP 的 0.2%，這是因為基本收入年增 37.7%，而基本支出成長 42.1%。2025年前七個月，初級財政平衡佔GDP的1.1%，金融平衡佔GDP的0.3%。2025年第二季全國消費者物價指數累計上漲6%，截至7月，年初至今上漲17.3%。

Between May and July monthly inflation slipped below 2% threshold. In July, monthly inflation stood at 1.9% and accumulating 36.6% in year-over-year terms. The monetary base increased by ARS6.6 trillion in the quarter, recording an 84.2% increase in year-over-year terms. On April 11, 2025, the Central Bank implemented a foreign exchange bank system within which the exchange rate may fluctuate freely. These bonds were initially set between ARS1,000 per dollar and ARS1,400 per dollar and are adjusted monthly at a rate of minus 1% for the lower bound and plus 1% for the upper bound. The exchange rate averaged ARS1,181 per dollar in June 2025, a 23.5% devaluation in year-over-year terms.

5月至7月期間，月通膨率跌破2%的門檻。7月份，月通膨率為1.9%，年增36.6%。本季貨幣基礎增加了6.6兆阿根廷比索，年增84.2%。2025年4月11日起，央行實施外匯銀行製度，匯率在銀行範圍內自由浮動。這些債券的最初匯率設定在每美元兌 1,000 阿根廷比索至每美元兌 1,400 阿根廷比索之間，每月調整一次，下限為負 1%，上限為正 1%。2025 年 6 月，阿根廷比索兌美元平均匯率為 1,181 阿根廷比索，年減 23.5%。

During the first half of 2025, the benchmark interest rate was set by the Central Bank. However, on July 10, the monetary authority ceased offering levies and the interest rate is currently determined endogenously by the market, in line with the regime focused on monetary aggregates. In June 2025, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector term deposits for up to 59 days stood at 32.2%, 1.1 percentage points below the June 2024 average. Following the change in monetary policy, in mid-July, interest rates increased and ended demand at 37.4%.

2025年上半年基準利率由央行製定。然而，自7月10日起，貨幣當局停止徵收，利率目前由市場內生決定，符合以貨幣總量為重點的製度。2025 年 6 月，以比索計價的私部門最長 59 天定期存款平均利率為 32.2%，比 2024 年 6 月平均利率低 1.1 個百分點。隨著貨幣政策的變化，7月中旬，利率上升，最終需求達37.4%。

Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS89.1 trillion in June, increasing by 10.6% during the quarter and 69.1% in the last 12 months. Time deposits in pesos rose 5.3% during the quarter and 93% in the year while peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 16.4% during the second quarter and 49.6% in year-over-year terms.

6 月私部門比索存款平均為 89.1 兆阿根廷披索，本季成長 10.6%，過去 12 個月成長 69.1%。比索定期存款本季成長 5.3%，全年成長 93%，而比索計價的交易存款第二季成長 16.4%，較去年同期成長 49.6%。

Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $30.4 billion in June 2025, increasing 2.5% during the quarter and 71.8% in the last 12 months. Peso-denominated (inaudible) private sector averaged ARS72.3 trillion in June, showing a 19% quarterly increase and 181.7% year-over-year expansion. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $15.8 billion recording a 12.1% quarterly growth and 147.3% annual increase.

2025 年 6 月，私部門美元存款總額為 304 億美元，本季成長 2.5%，過去 12 個月成長 71.8%。6 月份，以比索計價的（聽不清楚）私部門平均為 72.3 兆阿根廷比索，較上季成長 19%，較去年同期成長 181.7%。私部門美元貸款總額為158億美元，較上季成長12.1%，較去年同期成長147.3%。

Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. I would like to mention that at the end of June, we successfully finished the merger with Galicia Mas, former HSBC in Argentina. We unified the banking unit with Banco Galicia, the mutual fund management with Galicia Asset Management and the Insurance companies with Galicia Seguros. The change for the clients was very smooth with no frictions, and we grew around 2.5% in market share of both loans and deposits. For comparison purposes, figures for the first quarter of 2025 include the balances of the merged companies while the figures of the second quarter of 2024 are not fully comparable as they do not include any HSBC figures.

現在轉向加利西亞金融集團。我想提一下，6月底，我們成功完成了與阿根廷前匯豐銀行Galicia Mas的合併。我們將銀行部門與加利西亞銀行 (Banco Galicia) 合併，將共同基金管理與加利西亞資產管理 (Galicia Asset Management) 合併，將保險公司與加利西亞保險 (Galicia Seguros) 合併。對於客戶來說，轉變非常順利，沒有任何摩擦，我們的貸款和存款市場份額都增加了約 2.5%。為了進行比較，2025 年第一季的數據包括合併後公司的餘額，而 2024 年第二季的數據並不完全可比，因為它們不包括任何匯豐銀行的數據。

Going now to the results for the quarter. Net income amounted to ARS173 billion, 70% lower from the year ago quarter. The result comes from profits from Banco Galicia for ARS98 billion from Naranja X for ARS32 billion from Galicia Asset Management for ARS27 billion and from Galicia Seguros for ARS13 billion. This profit represented a 1.9% annualized return on average assets and a 9.5% return on average shareholders' equity.

現在來看看本季的業績。淨收入為 1,730 億阿根廷比索，較去年同期下降 70%。這一結果包括來自加利西亞銀行的利潤 980 億阿根廷比索、Naranja X 的利潤 320 億阿根廷比索、加利西亞資產管理公司的利潤 270 億阿根廷比索以及加利西亞保險公司的利潤 130 億阿根廷比索。此利潤代表平均資產年化報酬率為1.9%，平均股東權益年化報酬率為9.5%。

The result from Banco Galicia was negatively affected by the increase in the cost of risk associated with the growth of the loan book and the increase in the nonperforming loans in the retail segment, particularly in personal loans and credit card financing. The net income for the quarter was 76% lower than in the same quarter of 2024 due to a 67% lower operating result. This was primarily a consequence of a 40% decrease of net operating income as net interest income decreased 30%, net results from financial instruments were down 37% and loan loss provisions increased 192%, which were partially offset by a 30% growth of net fee income.

加利西亞銀行的業績受到貸款規模成長帶來的風險成本上升以及零售領域不良貸款增加（尤其是個人貸款和信用卡融資）的負面影響。由於營業利潤下降 67%，本季淨收入比 2024 年同期下降 76%。這主要是由於營業淨收入下降 40%（淨利息收入下降 30%）、金融工具淨收益下降 37%、貸款損失準備金增加 192%，但淨費用收入成長 30% 部分抵銷了上述影響。

Average inter (inaudible) assets reached ARS17.3 trillion, 38% higher than in the same quarter of 2024, primarily due to 117% increase of the average portfolio of loans in pesos and 262% (inaudible) dollar-denominated loan portfolio, partially offset by 94% reduction in the average balance of other interest bearing assets in pesos. In the same period, its yield decreased 35 percentage points, reaching 37.4%. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 74% from June 2024, amounting to ARS14.8 trillion, primarily due to the increase of time deposits in pesos and of saving accounts in dollars. During this period, its cost decreased 15 percentage points to 15.6%.

平均內部（聽不清楚）資產達到 17.3 兆阿根廷比索，比 2024 年同期高出 38%，主要原因是比索貸款平均組合增加了 117%，美元計價貸款組合增加了 262%（聽不清楚），但比索其他生息資產平均餘額減少了 94% 部分抵消了這一影響。同期其收益率下降35個百分點，至37.4%。計息負債較 2024 年 6 月增加 74%，達到 14.8 兆阿根廷比索，主要由於比索定期存款和美元儲蓄帳戶增加。在此期間，其成本下降了15個百分點，至15.6%。

Net interest income decreased 36% when compared to the same quarter of 2024. This was the result of a 29% decrease in interest income because of a 62% lower interest on government securities and a 99% lower interest on repo transactions, together with a 13% decrease in interest expenses, due to a 6% lower interest on time deposits and a 27% lower interest on other deposits. Net fee income increased 30% from June 2024 due to a 51% higher income from credit card fees and 28% from fees on deposits.

與 2024 年同期相比，淨利息收入下降了 36%。這是由於利息收入減少 29%，因為政府證券利息減少 62%，回購交易利息減少 99%，同時利息支出減少 13%，因為定期存款利息減少 6%，其他存款利息減少 27%。由於信用卡費用收入增加 51% 以及存款費用收入增加 28%，淨費用收入較 2024 年 6 月增加 30%。

Net income from financial instruments decreased 37% due to a 53% lower result from government securities. Gains from FX quotation difference were 12% lower from the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. It is worth to mention that during April, many regulations that limited the access to the FX market were removed mainly for individuals and thus, FX trading increased significantly growing 153% when compared to the first quarter of this year.

由於政府證券業績下降 53%，金融工具淨收入下降 37%。包括外匯交易的收益在內，外匯報價差異收益較去年同期下降了 12%。值得一提的是，4月份，許多限制進入外匯市場（主要針對個人）的規定被取消，因此外匯交易量大幅增長，與今年第一季相比增長了153%。

Other operating income increased 150% in the quarter mainly due to the 290% increase in our adjustments and interest on miscellaneous receivables and of 145% in other operating income. Provision for loan losses increased 192% because of the growth of the financing portfolio and to an increase in delinquency that is circumscribed to the portfolio of personal loans and credit card financing to individuals. Personnel expenses were 3% lower than the year before. It is worth to mention that in the first quarter, we began to use the provision for restructuring expenses established in the fourth quarter of last year.

本季其他營業收入成長 150%，主要原因是我們的調整和雜項應收款利息成長 290%，其他營業收入成長 145%。由於融資組合的成長以及個人貸款和個人信用卡融資組合拖欠率的增加，貸款損失準備金增加了 192%。人事費用比上年下降3%。值得一提的是，我們在第一季開始使用去年第四季設立的重組費用準備金。

Administrative expenses increased 35% due to a 77% increase of expenses for maintenance and repairment of goods and IT and to a 62% increase of higher administrative services. Other operating expenses increased 13% due to a 12% higher turnover tax related to financial operations. Results from the monetary position decreased 56% year-over-year following the declining evolution of inflation. The income tax charge was 75% lower than in the year ago quarter due to lower operating results. The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS69.9 trillion at the end of the quarter, up 123% in the last 12 months with peso financing increasing 106% and dollar-denominated financing growing 181%.

由於貨物維護和維修費用及 IT 費用增加了 77%，以及高階管理服務費用增加了 62%，因此管理費用增加了 35%。其他營運費用增加了 13%，原因是與金融營運相關的營業稅增加了 12%。隨著通貨膨脹的下降，貨幣狀況的結果比去年同期下降了 56%。由於經營業績下降，所得稅費用比去年同期下降了 75%。截至本季末，該銀行對私部門的融資額達到 69.9 兆阿根廷披索，過去 12 個月成長了 123%，其中披索融資成長了 106%，美元融資成長了 181%。

While by credit line promissory notes increased 92%, credit card financing 66% and personal loans 201%.

以信用額度計算，本票增加了 92%，信用卡融資增加了 66%，個人貸款增加了 201%。

Net exposure to the public sector decreased 33% year-over-year, primarily due to the 39% decrease in government securities, adjusted by CPI at amortized cost and to the 99% reduction of repo transactions with the Central Bank. This exposure represented 19% of total assets as of the end of the quarter, compared to 42% of the year before. Deposits reached ARS19.9 trillion, 72% higher than a year before, mainly due to a 162% increase in saving accounts in dollars, a 76% increase in time deposits in pesos and a 47% decrease in peso-denominated checking accounts. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 14.5%, 260 basis points higher than at the end of the year-ago quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 16%, 550 basis points higher than in the same quarter of 2024.

公部門淨曝險較去年同期下降33%，主要由於以攤餘成本計算的CPI調整後的政府證券減少39%，以及與中央銀行的回購交易減少99%。截至本季末，此一風險敞口佔總資產的 19%，而去年同期這一比例為 42%。存款達 19.9 兆阿根廷比索，比上年增加 72%，主要原因是美元儲蓄帳戶增加 162%，比索定期存款增加 76%，比索支票帳戶減少 47%。該銀行估計私部門貸款的市佔率為 14.5%，比去年同期末高出 260 個基點，私部門存款的市佔率為 16%，比 2024 年同期高出 550 個基點。

The bank's liquid assets represented 94.3% of transactional deposits and 65.2% of total deposits compared to 147.7% and 101.5%, respectively, from one year before. As regards to asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loans in total financing ended the quarter at 4.4%, recording a 240 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2% of the second quarter of the prior year. And as I mentioned before, the deterioration is limited to the personal loans and credit card financing portfolios.

該銀行的流動資產佔交易存款的 94.3% 和總存款的 65.2%，而一年前分別為 147.7% 和 101.5%。資產品質方面，本季末不良貸款佔融資總額的比例為4.4%，較去年同期的2%下降了240個基點。正如我之前提到的，惡化僅限於個人貸款和信用卡融資組合。

At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 117.9%, down 42.4 percentage points from 160.3% recorded one year ago. As of the end of June 2025, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 23.7%, decreasing 510 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2024, while the Tier 1 ratio was 23.2%, down 460 basis points during the same period.

同時，配額覆蓋率達到117.9%，較一年前的160.3%下降了42.4個百分點。截至2025年6月末，該行總監管資本充足率達23.7%，較2024年同季末下降510個基點；一級資本充足率達23.2%，較2024年同季末下降460個基點。

In summary, in a challenging and volatile political and macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep liquidity, solvency and profitability metrics at healthy levels, adapted its strategy for credit granting to the new context in order to prioritize lower risk segments and to revert the trend of deterioration in asset quality and completed a very fast and successful integration with Galicia Mas.

綜上所述，在充滿挑戰和動蕩的政治和宏觀環境中，加利西亞金融集團能夠將流動性、償付能力和盈利能力指標保持在健康水平，根據新情況調整其信貸發放策略，以優先考慮風險較低的部分，扭轉資產質量惡化的趨勢，並完成了與加利西亞 Mas 的非常快速和成功的整合。

Lastly, on August 6, the Board of Directors of Banco Galicia, elected Diogo Rivas as CFO of the bank, while Fabian Kon will remain as the CEO of Grupo Galicia. This will be implemented as of September 1. Now I would like to give the word to Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro for additional remarks.

最後，8 月 6 日，加利西亞銀行董事會選舉 Diogo Rivas 為該銀行的財務官，而 Fabian Kon 將繼續擔任加利西亞集團的執行長。本規定自9月1日起實施。現在我想請 Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro 作補充發言。

Thanks, Pablo. Hi, everyone. Well, regarding how we see the rest of the year, as you know, (inaudible) has tightened its monetary policy, increasing minimum liquidity requirements, and that has generated a significant increase in short-term interest rates, together with high volatility. The (inaudible) rate has increased from 30% level to 60% levels in a very short period of time. This change in interest rates are impacting the local financial systems as our funding is very short term. So if the price is very fast, but assets are taking more time to reprice as now we have more loans in our asset composition.

謝謝，巴勃羅。大家好。好吧，關於我們對今年剩餘時間的看法，正如你所知，（聽不清楚）已經收緊了貨幣政策，提高了最低流動性要求，這導致短期利率大幅上升，同時波動性也很大。在很短的時間內，（聽不清楚）比率從 30％ 上升到了 60％。由於我們的融資期限非常短，利率的變動正在影響當地的金融體系。因此，如果價格上漲非常快，但資產需要更多的時間來重新定價，因為現在我們的資產組成中有更多的貸款。

We are seeing a margin compression in the third quarter that is expected to be temporal and could finish after elections once the political side is clear, but it's something that we cannot define when this will stabilize and change again. Of course, this is something we don't expect a couple of months ago, and we are still evaluating the impact as the rate is very volatile and changes significantly from one day to the other, and also, we have been having new regulations and changes in minimum liquidity requirements in a short period of time.

我們看到第三季的利潤率壓縮，預計這只是暫時的，一旦政治方面明朗，選舉之後利潤率就會下降，但我們無法確定何時利潤率會穩定下來並再次發生變化。當然，這是我們幾個月前沒有預料到的事情，我們仍在評估其影響，因為利率非常不穩定，每天都在發生很大變化，而且我們在短時間內還遇到了新的規定和最低流動性要求的變化。

On the other hand, as we have been explaining in prior calls, the portfolio performance of the consumer lending in Argentina has deteriorated. It's a market issue as people need to get used to manage credit in low inflation environment coming from negative interest rates to very positive interest rates. Also the fact of having lower disposable income as utility prices went up. We are expecting stabilization of the NPLs on the consumer lending by the end of third quarter. We started to see a lower or slower deterioration and start stabilization end of third quarter, beginning of the fourth quarter.

另一方面，正如我們在先前的電話會議中所解釋的那樣，阿根廷消費貸款的投資組合表現已經惡化。這是一個市場問題，因為人們需要習慣在從負利率到非常正利率的低通膨環境下管理信貸。此外，由於公用事業價格上漲，可支配收入也隨之下降。我們預計到第三季末消費貸款的不良貸款將會穩定下來。我們開始看到惡化速度降低或減緩，並在第三季末、第四季初開始穩定。

As we also have told in prior calls, we have implemented many changes in our loan origination, in collections, in changing credit limits that are being successful, but takes some time to fully impact the portfolios.

正如我們在先前的電話會議中所說的那樣，我們在貸款發放、收款、信用額度調整等方面實施了許多變革，這些變革正在取得成功，但需要一些時間才能完全影響投資組合。

Consider these effects, we expect our ROE to be in the range of 9% to 11% for 2025. To give also more context, this guidance does not include any additional restructuring cost onetime that we may have in the second half. As we have been anticipating in all the calls and presentations, we had implemented the voluntary redundancy program that we implemented to achieve the structure rightsizing after the HSBC acquisition. And it's very -- it's been very successful. As you can see in our press release, we already made a significant head count reduction from first quarter to second quarter.

考慮到這些影響，我們預計 2025 年的 ROE 將在 9% 至 11% 之間。為了提供更多背景信息，該指引不包括我們下半年可能產生的任何額外重組成本。正如我們在所有電話會議和演示中所預料的那樣，我們已經實施了自願裁員計劃，該計劃是為了在匯豐銀行收購後實現結構調整而實施的。而且它非常——非常成功。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，從第一季到第二季度，我們已經大幅裁減了員工人數。

If this continues, it could imply additional onetime expenses in the second half of the year as the provision that we booked at last year may not be enough, we expect that the impact could go up to two points of ROE that are not included in the guidance that I just mentioned, if all eligible people sign up for the product.

如果這種情況持續下去，可能意味著下半年將產生額外的一次性費用，因為我們去年預留的準備金可能不夠，我們預計，如果所有符合條件的人都註冊該產品，其影響可能會上升到 ROE 的兩個點，而這並沒有包括在我剛才提到的指導中。

It has -- of course, it's excellent news for us. Yes, we will achieve our rightsizing by year-end, much better than what we expected at the beginning of the year with a onetime P&L impact, that will not repeat in the future. So we said -- so that's something that we don't know if it will happen, but the pace that the program is happening may infer that will happen. As we said in prior also calls, we consider this is a transition year where we finish the HSBC integration. We rightsized the structure, grow and stabilized portfolio performance, we can start 2026 with all our potential and deliver our sustainable ROEs.

當然，這對我們來說是個好消息。是的，我們將在年底前實現調整規模，比我們年初預期的要好得多，並且會產生一次性的損益影響，將來不會再發生這種情況。所以我們說——我們不知道這是否會發生，但該計劃的進展速度可能表明這會發生。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說的那樣，我們認為今年是完成匯豐銀行整合的過渡年。我們調整了結構，成長並穩定了投資組合的業績，我們可以在 2026 年開始發揮我們的全部潛力並實現可持續的 ROE。

So that were the remarks I wanted to make. So, open for questions.

這就是我想要表達的評論。因此，歡迎提問。

Yes. Thank you, Gonzalo. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have.

是的。謝謝你，貢薩洛。我們現在準備好回答您可能提出的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Brian Flores, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Brian Flores。

Gonzalo a follow-up on the comments you made on the guidance. So 9% to 11%, is this representing any adjustments on the previously guided ranges for loan growth and deposits? That's maybe the first question. If I may, I'll ask the second one after that one.

貢薩洛，請跟進您對該指南所作的評論。那麼 9% 到 11% 是否代表對先前貸款成長和存款指導範圍的任何調整？這也許是第一個問題。如果可以的話，我會問第二個問題。

Yes. I mean loan growth would be -- we were talking about 50% before. We are now seeing it more closer to 40%. In part of lack of -- with all this volatility, demand is also deteriorating, plus the measures we took to have (inaudible) consumer lending also to reduce the mortgage space because of lack of securitization in the market. So we see more large 30s, 40% growing in lending and deposits around 30%, 35%.

是的。我的意思是貸款成長率將是——我們之前談論的是 50%。我們現在看到它更接近40%。部分原因是缺乏——由於這種波動性，需求也在惡化，再加上我們採取的措施（聽不清楚）消費貸款也減少了抵押貸款空間，因為市場缺乏證券化。因此，我們看到貸款和存款分別成長 30%、40% 和 30%、35% 左右。

Super clear. And then I wanted to ask you a bit on capital, right? Because you saw an improvement quarter-over-quarter. Just wanted to understand, Gonzalo where has this mostly come from because your pace of growth is still very relevant. And then maybe connecting to that question, it seems that for ROE to improve going forward, you might need to delever your balance sheet. So at some point, the discussion on paying more dividends in the cards going forward?

超級清晰。然後我想問你一些關於資本的問題，對嗎？因為你看到了季度季比的改善。只是想了解一下，Gonzalo，這主要從何而來，因為你的成長速度仍然非常重要。然後也許與這個問題相關，似乎為了提高未來的 ROE，你可能需要降低資產負債表的槓桿率。那麼，在某個時候，會討論未來要支付更多股息嗎？

Sorry, pay more dividends in the card. I couldn't understand that last sentence.

抱歉，卡內分紅較多。我不明白最後一句話。

No, with the capital that you have, is more dividends at some point --

不，你擁有的資本在某個時候會有更多的股息--

To reduce capital, you mean?

你的意思是減少資本？

Yes, exactly.

是的，確實如此。

Okay. I mean the -- Brian, the increase on capital ratio is just the merger of the two banks. I mean, before -- as you see the ratio that we have last quarter was just Banco Galicia. We didn't adjust it. We didn't restated that in the press release because it is a regulatory metric, we don't want to combine something that was not presented for regulatory purposes.

好的。我的意思是──布萊恩，資本充足率的提高只是兩家銀行的合併。我的意思是，之前——正如您所見，我們上個季度的比例只是加利西亞銀行。我們沒有調整它。我們沒有在新聞稿中重申這一點，因為這是一個監管指標，我們不想將一些沒有為監管目的而提出的東西結合起來。

So when combined the two banks, the new capital ratio is close to 24%. I think we also mentioned that in prior calls that our estimation for the capital ratio after integration was going to be 24%. Galicia Mas HSBC has a stronger, even stronger capital ratio. So after the merger, that's a new capital ratio. And the reason of the jump is that before in first quarter, it was just Banco Galicia, the one that you have there in the press release.

因此，當這兩家銀行合併時，新的資本比率接近 24%。我想我們在之前的電話會議中也提到過，我們估計整合後的資本比率將達到 24%。Galicia Mas 匯豐銀行的資本充足率較高，甚至更高。合併後，這是一個新的資本比率。而跳躍的原因是，在第一季之前，只有加利西亞銀行，也就是您在新聞稿中提到的那家銀行。

Talking about the future, I mean, about yes, I mean dividend policy is something that we always analyze and assess and we will do that after closer to year-end for next year. We believe there are still a lot of efficiencies that we can make that can benefit our ROE. I mean, even though margins may go down if Argentina stabilized, but NPLs also stabilize at lower levels. And our expenses, I mean, we still -- we are seeing that this year, if everything goes as expected, we may only take from the former HSBC, one-third of the cost for next year. I mean next year, our run rate next year will be using only 30% of what HSBC used to have on a yearly basis.

談到未來，我的意思是，是的，我的意思是股利政策是我們一直在分析和評估的事情，我們將在明年年底之後進行分析和評估。我們相信，我們還可以提高很多效率，從而提高我們的 ROE。我的意思是，儘管如果阿根廷穩定下來，利潤率可能會下降，但不良貸款也會穩定在較低水平。至於我們的開支，我的意思是，我們仍然看到，如果一切按預期進行，今年我們可能只會從前匯豐銀行拿走明年成本的三分之一。我的意思是，明年我們的運行率將只使用匯豐銀行過去每年運行率的 30%。

So that's another thing that is not counted this year because all the savings are being done on a monthly basis, and most of them may be in the second half of the year. So we need to -- we want to find the best balance between net income growth and dividends also considering that a Argentina has a lot of potential for lending growth, and we want to have the sufficient capital to be able to face that growth. So that is something that, of course, we will continue looking at and change it if we think that is the best way to proceed.

所以這是今年沒有計算的另一件事，因為所有的儲蓄都是按月進行的，其中大部分可能是在下半年。因此，我們需要——我們希望找到淨收入成長和股息之間的最佳平衡，同時考慮到阿根廷在貸款成長方面具有很大的潛力，我們希望擁有足夠的資本來應對這種成長。當然，如果我們認為這是最好的處理方式，我們會繼續研究並進行修改。

That was super helpful. If I may, just very quickly on this HSBC integration, you mentioned two points of ROE would still be pending. So is this, if I understanding correctly, not considered within the guidance but could be, let's say, an upside?

這非常有幫助。如果可以的話，我只想快速地談論匯豐銀行的整合，您提到的 ROE 的兩個要點仍未解決。那麼，如果我理解正確的話，這是否不在指導範圍內，但可以說是一個好處？

What I said is -- again, it's up to because we don't know, but if we have all the eligible people signing to the program that would generate onetime expense at good be up to two points of ROE on a negative side because it will be an expense. But again, a one-imer. So it's something that I wouldn't consider recurring income. We've been in the reported P&L, but if it happens again, but not -- we'll not be recovering for future years, but we will have all the savings for future years. So if it happens, it's a negative one because it's an additional expense one-time.

我說的是——再說一次，這取決於我們，因為我們不知道，但如果所有符合資格的人都簽署該計劃，這將產生一次性費用，最多會導致 ROE 下降 2 個點，因為這將是一筆費用。但同樣，這只是一次性事件。所以我不會將其視為經常性收入。我們一直在報告損益表中，但如果再次發生這種情況，但不是 - 我們將不會在未來幾年恢復，但我們將為未來幾年節省所有開支。所以如果發生這種情況，那就是負面的，因為這是一次性的額外開支。

Yuri Fernandes, J.P. Morgan.

尤里‧費爾南德斯，摩根大通。

I would like to explore a little bit more the asset quality discussion here because given there is very low leverage, right. Argentina is still a growth story penetration on credit GDP. It caused my attention like the pace of the worsening in the retail and (inaudible). I know this the industry it was clear on the explanation like on the disposable income, on people getting used to the real rates.

我想在這裡進一步探討資產品質問題，因為槓桿率非常低，對吧。阿根廷的信貸滲透率仍高於GDP。這引起了我的注意，就像零售業惡化的速度一樣（聽不清楚）。我知道這個行業對可支配收入、人們習慣的實際利率等解釋很明確。

But it's still -- I struggle a little bit. So if you can comment a little bit what you saw like if there is any kind of income classes that are suffering the most? If you are, I don't know, shifting the strategy to maybe, I know ask for more collaterals. I know it's credit card and personal loans. So this can be tricky.

但我還是有點掙扎。那麼，您能否稍微評論一下，您認為哪個收入階層受到的影響最大？如果您願意，我不知道，也許改變策略，我知道要求提供更多抵押品。我知道這是信用卡和個人貸款。所以這可能很棘手。

But my point of concern here is that we have challenges on the funding side, as you mentioned. And on the asset quality side, if you slow down personal loans, everybody try to move to the commercial side, right? So you can have like an additional pressure on margins because like commercial is maybe the only healthy loans. So if you can explain a little bit an outlook, the products, the clients, what you can do to improve NPLs. I think that would be important.

但正如您所說，我擔心的是我們在資金方面面臨挑戰。在資產品質方面，如果放慢個人貸款的速度，每個人都會嘗試轉向商業貸款，對嗎？因此，您可能會面臨額外的利潤壓力，因為商業貸款可能是唯一健康的貸款。因此，如果您可以稍微解釋一下前景、產品、客戶以及您可以做些什麼來改善不良貸款。我認為這很重要。

And also comment on coverage. The coverage ratio getting below 120, I think it's overall low number. So if you can comment a little bit on how should we think about the NPL coverage ratio going forward? I think it can be important.

並對報道進行評論。覆蓋率低於 120，我認為總體來說比較低。那麼，您能否就我們應該如何看待未來的不良貸款覆蓋率發表一點評論？我認為這很重要。

Okay. I mean yes, talking about NPLs, I mean, the main impact, as you said, is credit cards and personal loans. We have growth -- have grew personal loans faster than the market last between March '24 to March '25 faster than the market. And that's, of course, is the product with higher NPLs even though credit cards has deteriorated, but personal loans is worth.

好的。是的，談到不良貸款，我的意思是，正如你所說，主要的影響是信用卡和個人貸款。我們的個人貸款在 2024 年 3 月至 2025 年 3 月期間的成長速度快於市場。當然，這是不良貸款率較高的產品，儘管信用卡已經惡化，但個人貸款仍然有價值。

After March '25, last March, we started making changes to origination policy that we are still refining. But that generated the pace of of deterioration because, of course, in order to grow -- capture market share (inaudible) to Argentina opportunity, we went to segments that a bit riskier than the ones that we were doing in the past. That's something that we changed.

2025 年 3 月之後，也就是去年 3 月，我們開始對發起政策進行修改，目前仍在完善中。但這導致了惡化的速度，因為，當然，為了成長——佔領阿根廷的市場份額（聽不清楚），我們進入了比過去風險更大的領域。這是我們改變的事情。

But the mix of the growth, was it was worst than prior years because there was (inaudible) -- this year, this 12 months between March '24 to March '25. We saw a higher composition of the mix of, I would say, lower segments or a bit riskier sectors segments. That's something that we really changed, and we are focusing more in -- we already made changes to scorecard, and limits in credit cards, but in personal loans, in score cards and now focusing in more safer segments, which are still providing healthier volume. And even though we are decelerating the volume, but not we are finding that with better mix. We still can disburse loans without going to riskier segment.

但成長的組合情況比前幾年更糟糕，因為（聽不清楚）——今年，也就是 2024 年 3 月至 2025 年 3 月之間的 12 個月。我想說，我們看到了較低細分市場或風險較高的行業細分市場的組成比例較高。這是我們真正改變的事情，我們更加關注——我們已經對記分卡和信用卡限額進行了更改，但在個人貸款、記分卡方面，現在我們專注於更安全的部分，這些部分仍然提供更健康的交易量。儘管我們正在降低產量，但我們並沒有發現更好的混合效果。我們仍然可以發放貸款，而無需進入風險較高的領域。

So that's our strategy now. I mean, of course, that we will go to all the segments, but with a different strategy where start with very, very low disbursements, wait, don't have customers, new customers that just joined the bank. If they are higher risks to get a loan. So let's of them as clients for a while. So that does all the strategies that we are putting there.

這就是我們現在的策略。我的意思是，當然，我們會進入所有的細分市場，但會採用不同的策略，從非常非常低的支出開始，等待，沒有客戶，剛加入銀行的新客戶。如果他們獲得貸款的風險更高。因此，讓我們暫時將他們視為客戶。這就是我們所實施的所有策略。

But again, I mean, we still see our retail banking growing with better segments without sacrificing much the volume, let's say. Of course, the commercial side and mainly SMEs, is a focus that we are increasing, of course, we're cautious because according -- depending on how the economy evolves that would also be another sector that may have progress depending on which sector you are, but is something that we started to focus.

但我的意思是，我們仍然看到我們的零售銀行業務正在成長，細分領域更加完善，同時業務量卻沒有太大的損失。當然，商業方面，主要是中小企業，是我們日益關注的重點，當然，我們很謹慎，因為根據經濟如何發展，這也可能是另一個可能取得進展的行業，具體取決於你所在的行業，但這是我們開始關注的重點。

If Argentina stabilized after the elections, and we start seeing growth, I mean, activity growth as we have been seeing in the last month. We believe that in the commercial lending and also not corporates, but also coming to medium corporates, there is room for growth and for (inaudible) I mean, as you said, lending has a very low penetration in Argentina. So we believe that we can grow there without a lot of margin compression because there are still a lot of demand not satisfied.

如果阿根廷在選舉後穩定下來，我們就會開始看到成長，我的意思是，就像我們上個月看到的那樣，活動成長。我們認為，商業貸款，不僅是企業貸款，而且是中型企業貸款，都有成長空間，而且（聽不清楚）我的意思是，正如你所說，貸款在阿根廷的滲透率非常低。因此，我們相信，我們可以在那裡實現成長，而不會大幅壓縮利潤率，因為仍有許多需求尚未滿足。

These couple of months with the rate volatility and our preelections, it's kind of something that we need to put away. But after that, after elections with markets being leaving aside the political factor, we believe that the company will start thinking doing business again and we can -- all the financial system can benefit from that, and we may have a space to grow also in the commercial segment without sacrificing much margins.

這幾個月以來，利率波動較大，再加上選舉前夕，我們需要暫時放下這些事。但在那之後，在選舉之後，市場將拋開政治因素，我們相信公司將開始考慮再次開展業務，我們可以 - 整個金融系統都可以從中受益，並且我們可能在商業領域也有增長空間，而無需犧牲太多利潤率。

We believe that it's key for us to stabilize the consumer NPLs, and that's something that we are focusing on. And we are seeing the first signs. Of course, we still have stock because, first of all the personal lending, then we start to make to personal lending, but then credit cards came after. So that's why we're seeing a bit of the delay of the stabilization. And in credit card was not just -- was not new customers, was the old customers that starts to have problems because of what we mentioned. So the approach was different was, okay, let's reduce limits and led to existing customers where we see more risk.

我們認為穩定消費者不良貸款至關重要，這也是我們關注的重點。我們已經看到了初步跡象。當然，我們仍然有庫存，因為首先是個人貸款，然後我們開始進行個人貸款，然後是信用卡。這就是為什麼我們看到穩定的進程有所延遲。信用卡不只是新客戶，老客戶也因為我們提到的事情而開始遇到問題。所以方法不同，好吧，讓我們減少限制並讓現有客戶面臨更多風險。

Let's increase focus in collections and refinancing programs, et cetera, and that's what we are doing also. So I would say that's how we see it. And in terms of -- I mean, we are expecting to -- I mean, of reserve coverage, as the merger of HSBC also makes some because we needed to do some recalibration between the two situation for the same customer, sometimes we have shared customers that's one was performing well and the other has a problem, so we need to align that and that has an impact also and it did also the coverage ratio we see for year-end around -- I would say, a bit above 120% -- between 120% and 13%. That's what we see for year-end more or less.

讓我們更專注於收款和再融資計畫等等，這也是我們正在做的事情。所以我想說這就是我們的看法。就準備金覆蓋率而言，由於匯豐銀行的合併也產生了一些影響，因為我們需要對同一客戶的兩種情況進行重新調整，有時我們有共同的客戶，一個表現良好，另一個出現問題，所以我們需要對此進行調整，這也會產生影響，而且我們看到的年底覆蓋率也在 120% 左右，略高於 120% 左右，在 120% 之間。這或多或少就是我們在年底看到的景象。

So just making sure I got everything. -- worsening, you had like higher appetite, you're growing faster. Yes, personal loans a little bit of new customers that maybe they were riskier. Credit cards a little bit of everything. You are reducing our limits, improving collections and coverage 120%, 130%.

所以只是確保我得到了所有東西。 ——更糟的是，你的食慾變得更大，你長得更快。是的，個人貸款對新客戶來說可能風險更大。信用卡什麼都有一點。您正在降低我們的限額，將收款和覆蓋率提高 120%、130%。

Just on the credit at the (inaudible) we had in other markets was regarding principality, right, like , which is the, let's say, the favorite bank of the clients. And I guess in Argentina, people discussed a lot Mercado Pago Mercado (inaudible) and like some fintechs. Do you have any perceptions that principality matters at (inaudible) here or not really? It's really a matter of people having disposable income and maybe higher limits out of the blue and now people are not -- are not behaving the way you thought they would behave. So just trying to principality. Principality would be a debate also happening here in Argentina?

就我們在其他市場上獲得的（聽不清楚）信貸而言，這與公國有關，對吧，就像，可以說是客戶最喜歡的銀行。我想在阿根廷，人們討論了很多 Mercado Pago Mercado（聽不清楚）以及一些金融科技。您是否認為公國地位在這裡（聽不清楚）真的很重要嗎？這其實是人們擁有可支配收入的問題，也許他們的收入限額會突然提高，但現在人們的行為方式卻不像你想像的那樣。所以只是嘗試公國。公國問題也會在阿根廷發生爭論嗎？

I would say a principality. Yes, of course, it's something that is important. I don't think that, that impacts NPLs or no or performance. I don't know if that was for me, they are not related. It's more on a profitability thing. If you -- we all want to have the principality of the customer because they do business -- more business with us, regardless the performance.

我想說的是公國。是的，當然，這是一件重要的事情。我不認為這會影響不良貸款或業績。我不知道這是否適合我，它們沒有關係。這更多的是關於盈利能力的事情。如果您—我們都希望擁有客戶的主權，因為他們與我們做生意—無論表現如何。

I think that a customer that is not performing is not because has not the principality with you just because it's having problems. In Argentina, again, it's something that we all look at, but customers got used to get many banks in the -- with all the promotions in the past after (inaudible) and discounts where customers used to open a lot of credit cards because they have different discounts on Mondays with one bank on Tuesday with the other. So they got used to get many banks, many accounts or many credit cards. And now Mercado Pago, it's also another competitor there. So it's something that is not as easy to achieve for banks, but it's something that for us is very important.

我認為客戶沒有履行職責並不是因為與您沒有關係，只是因為遇到了問題。在阿根廷，這也是我們大家都關注的事情，但是客戶已經習慣了多家銀行的優惠活動，過去，在各種促銷活動（聽不清楚）和折扣之後，客戶會開很多信用卡，因為週一一家銀行的折扣和周二另一家銀行的折扣不同。因此他們習慣開設多家銀行、開設多個帳戶或使用多張信用卡。現在 Mercado Pago 也是那裡的另一個競爭對手。因此，對銀行來說，這並不是一件容易實現的事情，但對我們來說，這卻非常重要。

So that's what we call the everyday banking. We want to be the everyday bank for our customers. So we invest in the app, for example, giving to them all the functionalities for them to do. We -- for all, now with dollars, we started paying interest in the dollar deposit accounts. So the bank -- in dollars with us, and we have the best market share in foreign -- FX buying and sell on dollars for people, for consumers now that the FX restrictions have gone away for people.

這就是我們所說的日常銀行業務。我們希望成為客戶日常使用的銀行。因此，我們投資應用程序，為他們提供所有可用的功能。我們——現在有了美元，我們就開始向美元存款帳戶支付利息。因此，銀行——在我們這裡以美元結算，我們在外匯市場上擁有最大的份額——現在外匯限制已經取消，我們可以為人們、為消費者買賣美元。

So it's important for us, but mainly considered from a profitability perspective, and we do a lot of things to get it. In Argentina, it's something that (inaudible) said sometimes it's not that easy because customers are used to have many banks in the wallet.

所以這對我們來說很重要，但主要從獲利角度考慮，我們做了很多事情來實現它。在阿根廷，（聽不清楚）有時這並不容易，因為客戶習慣在錢包裡存入多家銀行的卡片。

Pedro Leduc, Itau BBA.

佩德羅·勒杜克（Pedro Leduc），伊塔烏 BBA。

Very quick follow-up on the NPLs. When you say stabilize, you mean like stabilized -- rise less or be flat or maybe falling towards the end of 3Q or for you? That's just a quick follow-up.

對不良貸款的跟進非常迅速。當您說穩定時，您的意思是穩定下來——漲幅較小或持平，或者可能在第三季末下降，或者對您而言？這只是一個快速的後續行動。

And then the real question is on financial margins. We saw it actually increasing a bit Q-on-Q. And a lot of it is coming from funding cost efficiency that we're seeing. But I also want to look ahead a bit on the NIM (inaudible) overseeing the government issue high rates of the bonds. We're seeing you probably price up a little bit more, and this funding savings seem sustainable.

那麼真正的問題在於財務利潤。我們發現它實際上環比有所增加。其中很大一部分來自於我們所看到的資金成本效率。但我也想稍微展望一下 NIM（聽不清楚）監督政府發行高利率債券的情況。我們看到您的價格可能會稍微上漲一點，而且這種資金節省似乎是可持續的。

So on -- maybe get a sense for you if we can expect financial margins now growing in the second half of the year after slightly up-ticking in 2Q.

如此，我們或許可以了解一下，在第二季略有上升之後，我們是否可以預期財務利潤率將在下半年成長。

No, thank you. So talking NPLs, we see a slight increase and stabilize at the end of the third quarter, but still a slight increase in the third quarter with stabilization by the end of the quarter. Talking about margins, margins, yes, we have a healthy second quarter, better funding costs also better government bonds performance yielding in the inflation-linked bonds that we have because of of the spike in inflation. I think we have it was in March, but we got two months lag in the bond. So that's a second quarter for the market.

不，謝謝。因此，談到不良貸款，我們看到不良貸款略有增加，並在第三季末趨於穩定，但第三季仍會略有增加，到第三季末會趨於穩定。說到利潤率，是的，我們第二季的利潤表現良好，融資成本更好，而且由於通膨飆升，我們持有的通膨掛鉤債券的收益也更好。我認為我們是在三月發行的，但債券卻落後了兩個月。這就是市場的第二季。

I mean, I would say we will have a third quarter which kind of something -- an outlier on the year. I think what i tried to explain at the beginning. I mean all these volatility interest rates and increase in funding cost will be negative for the system, I would say, in the third quarter. So we will have a deterioration in the third quarter of the margins, which due to this interest rate volatility and interest rates in a huge increase. I mean, as I said, (inaudible) rate was 30%, now it's 60% in a month.

我的意思是，我想說我們將會有一個第三季度，這是今年的異常現象。我想我一開始就試著解釋這一點。我的意思是，所有這些波動的利率和融資成本的增加都會對系統產生負面影響，我想說，在第三季。因此，由於利率波動和利率大幅上升，第三季的利潤率將會下降。我的意思是，正如我所說，（聽不清楚）利率是 30%，現在一個月內就達到 60%。

That increasing our short-term funding, which is, as you know, banks in Argentina, our funding is really short term and deposits are 30 days maximum, in general, in average. and assets now that we are having more lending takes a bit more to reprice.

增加我們的短期融資，如你所知，在阿根廷的銀行，我們的融資期限確實是短期的，一般來說，平均存款期限最長為 30 天。現在我們有更多的貸款，資產需要更多的重新定價。

So for the short-term third quarter, we will see a margin deterioration because of the funding cost increase for this volatility, this new monetary policy of government try to time and take pesos out of the market by increasing minimal equity requirements and all the things that you know are happening. So that will be negative for the third quarter. Then we expect, of course, after elections, once political site gets out of the way. We believe that, that things should stabilize again and rates go back to the -- what we used to have in the second quarter, and we go back to those margins there was that we had in the second quarter.

因此，就短期第三季而言，我們將看到利潤率下降，因為這種波動導致的融資成本增加，政府的新貨幣政策試圖透過提高最低股權要求和所有你知道正在發生的事情來將比索從市場中撤出。因此這對第三季來說將是一個負面影響。當然，我們預期選舉結束後，政治網站將不再成為阻礙。我們相信，情況應該會再次穩定下來，利率將回到第二季的水平，利潤率也將回到第二季的水平。

When that will happen is very difficult because, I mean, we are in the middle of volatility, with political noise. We all expect that and with very, very high real interest rates. I mean, I would say, record interest -- real interest rates, meaning above inflation. So that's something that some point should stabilize. We expect this to be -- after the elections, it's very difficult to predict when exactly -- but with -- according to the results of the elections, that should stabilize.

何時會發生這種情況非常困難，因為我們正處於動盪之中，充斥著政治噪音。我們都預料到這種情況，而且實際利率非常非常高。我的意思是，我會說，記錄利息——實際利率，即高於通貨膨脹率的利率。所以這是某個點應該要穩定下來的事情。我們預計，選舉結束後，很難預測具體時間，但根據選舉結果，情況應該會穩定下來。

But third quarter will be worse than -- for I just explained, then we should come back to second quarter levels, but at some point in the fourth quarter, I would say, in the fourth quarter.

但第三季的情況會比我剛才解釋的更糟，然後我們應該回到第二季的水平，但在第四季的某個時候，我想說，在第四季。

Alonso Aramburu, BTG.

阿隆索·阿蘭布魯，BTG。

Yes, I was going to ask also about margins. Maybe if you can provide. What's the level of impact you're seeing in 3Q? Is it 100 basis points, 200 basis points? I mean, how much of an impact do you think you can have because of this higher (inaudible) cost?

是的，我還想問利潤問題。如果你能提供的話也許可以。您在第三季看到的影響程度如何？是100個基點，還是200個基點？我的意思是，您認為由於成本較高（聽不清楚），您能產生多大的影響？

And regarded to monetary policy, obviously, I think there's still obviously really, but banks have met with the Central Bank. Do you think the Central Bank is receptive? Maybe some comments from the banks? Is there some levy to potentially flexibilize some of these monetary policy to provide a little bit more liquidity to the banks in the short term?

至於貨幣政策，顯然，我認為確實仍然存在，但銀行已經與中央銀行會面。您認為央行會接受嗎？也許是銀行的一些評論？是否有一些徵稅來潛在地靈活一些貨幣政策以便在短期內為銀行提供更多的流動性？

No. Thank you. Talking about impacts is really not that easy to calculate because we are having -- the one day rate is changing every day with big swings from one way to the other. So we are trying to capture that, but it could be a couple of hundred basis points. But again, we also don't -- doesn't know exactly how long.

不。謝謝。談論影響實際上並不是那麼容易計算，因為我們有——一天的費率每天都在變化，並且從一個方向到另一個方向的波動很大。因此，我們正在嘗試捕捉這項變化，但變化幅度可能只有幾百個基點。但同樣，我們也不知道具體要多久。

So this is August, but still need to see how it evolves. I mean we always have conversations with Central Bank, and they are very always very receptive of our comments. And we explained the situation. They understand it. And I mean we don't know what they are going to do with future regulation. This is what we have. And we will, of course, comply with all regulations.

現在是八月，但仍需要觀察其如何發展。我的意思是我們總是與中央銀行進行對話，他們總是非常樂於接受我們的評論。我們也解釋了情況。他們明白這一點。我的意思是，我們不知道他們將來會採取什麼監管措施。這就是我們所擁有的。當然，我們會遵守所有規定。

So they know the situation, they understand it, but they also have a superior goal, which is inflation and economic stabilization. So I can answer what they're going to do. What I can say is that we explained the situation that, of course, they understand.

所以他們了解情況，他們理解情況，但他們還有一個更高的目標，那就是通貨膨脹和經濟穩定。所以我可以回答他們將要做什麼。我可以說的是，我們解釋了情況，他們當然理解。

Okay, great. And maybe a follow-up on asset quality. And on cost of risk, I mean, what do you think would be your level of cost of risk. So 3Q should be similar to 2Q? Do you expect some improvement or not yet until the fourth quarter?

好的，太好了。或許還會關注資產品質。關於風險成本，我的意思是，您認為您的風險成本水準是多少。那麼 3Q 應該與 2Q 相似嗎？您是否預計情況會有所改善，還是直到第四季才會改善？

No, I would say 3Q a bit higher than second Q story. In total portfolio, I would say, a bit higher than second Q and then stabilizing closer, I would say, last -- today is 4.4%. So we could say that -- yes, what you said of risk. Cost of risk, sorry. Cost of risk, we are in the range of 8%. Yes, we believe that for the second half slightly higher than we are seeing now. Not dramatically higher, slightly higher.

不，我認為 3Q 比第二個 Q 故事高一點。就整個投資組合而言，我想說，比第二季度略高，然後趨於穩定，我想說，最後——今天是 4.4%。所以我們可以說——是的，正如你所說的風險。風險成本，抱歉。風險成本，我們在8%的範圍內。是的，我們相信下半年的成長率會比現在略高。不是大幅升高，只是略高。

[Marina Varadi], (inaudible).

[Marina Varadi]，（聽不清楚）。

So I wanted to go back to NPLs. You provided some color on the consumer portfolio. But I was wondering about the corporate segment. Do you see any deterioration there? And also a second question, what do you think will be the level by year-end?

所以我想回到不良貸款。您為消費者投資組合提供了一些資訊。但我對企業部門的情況感到好奇。您看到那裡有任何惡化嗎？還有第二個問題，您認為到年底的水平會是多少？

I mean the corporate segment, we are not seeing really big changes. I mean very -- I mean we are coming -- we are at 0.7% today and we see somewhere same amount at the end of the year, slightly up 0.7% to 1%, but really at very low levels. SME also, I mean, with the lending growth, some slight increase, but nothing -- I mean, normal behavior due to the increase in lending but not a systemic problem or that's we are seeing in the in the consumer group. And the other question was?

我的意思是，在企業領域，我們並沒有看到真正大的改變。我的意思是——我的意思是我們即將到來——我們今天的利率為 0.7%，而我們看到年底的利率水平與去年相同，略微上漲 0.7% 至 1%，但實際上處於非常低的水平。我的意思是，中小企業的貸款也有所增長，有一些小幅增長，但沒有什麼——我的意思是，這是由於貸款增加而導致的正常行為，而不是系統性問題，或者說，這是我們在消費者群體中看到的。另一個問題是？

Where do you see the level of NPLs by the end of the year?

您認為年底不良貸款水準會達到多少？

The level of NPLs, yes, closer to total book. Closer to 5%.

是的，不良貸款水準更接近總帳面水準。接近5%。

[George Birch], Argentan Advisors.

[喬治·伯奇]，阿根廷顧問。

A very quick one. Just again on the NPLs. I think you mentioned that there was a trend in terms of NPL formation from new customers. Can you just confirm that? And also in terms of when the bulk of these NPLs were originated. Are these mostly loans that were originated last year when you had that above average loans growth or are we looking at maturities plating back to before then roughly, if you could just describe the split, that would be helpful.

非常快。再次討論不良貸款。我想您提到過，新客戶出現不良貸款形成的趨勢。能確認一下嗎？並且還涉及大部分不良貸款的產生時間。這些貸款大多是去年發放的，當時你們的貸款成長高於平均水平，還是我們大致回顧一下之前的到期貸款，如果你能描述一下這種劃分，那將會很有幫助。

I mean, we couldn't hear very well. So I will answer what I heard. And then otherwise, you can repeat it. I would say that for the personal lending, the worst bulk came between March '24 to March '24 is where we grew faster. And then we started taking actions.

我的意思是，我們聽不太清楚。因此我將回答我所聽到的內容。然後，否則，您可以重複此操作。我想說，對於個人貸款而言，最糟糕的時期出現在 2024 年 3 月至 2024 年 3 月之間，而這段時間我們的成長速度更快。然後我們開始採取行動。

On the (inaudible) portfolio with no new customer that was existing customers that started to performance issues. We start seeing that more fourth quarter of this year and second quarter, but those are more, again, existing customers that start struggling because of less disposable income, et cetera. So it is different. The answer -- if we talk about personal loans and credit cards. And I don't know if there was more question, but I couldn't hear that.

在（聽不清楚）產品組合中，沒有新客戶，現有客戶開始出現效能問題。我們在今年第四季和第二季開始看到更多這樣的情況，但這些更多的是現有客戶，他們由於可支配收入減少等原因開始陷入困境。所以它是不同的。答案是——如果我們談論個人貸款和信用卡。我不知道是否有其他問題，但我聽不到。

Santiago Petri, Franklin Templeton.

聖地牙哥‧佩特里，富蘭克林‧鄧普頓。

I just want to understand the way of reasoning here because it gives me the impression from your comments that you expect that the volatility in rates is going to diminish once the uncertainty of elections is over. However, I have the impression that the volatility in rate was well part of the political developments and the political events. So I just want to get a clarification, if you are allowed to give so on this developments?

我只是想了解這裡的推理方式，因為您的評論給我的印像是，您預計一旦選舉的不確定性結束，利率波動就會減少。然而，我的印像是，匯率波動是政治發展和政治事件的一部分。所以我只是想得到澄清，您是否可以就這一發展做出解釋？

Well, I mean, this -- of course, we are doing (inaudible). So if that word exists so it's just -- it's an opinion. I mean I would say that, yes, I (inaudible) a bit before. But in an election year. I mean what we believe is that this kind of positive real interest rates, meaning above inflation, very, very high compared with the inflation we have.

嗯，我的意思是，這——當然，我們正在做（聽不清楚）。所以如果這個字存在的話，它就只是──一種觀點。我的意思是我會說，是的，我之前（聽不清楚）說過一點。但在選舉年。我的意思是，我們相信這種正實際利率，即高於通貨膨脹率，與我們現在的通貨膨脹率相比，非常非常高。

Cannot stay here from much long because if we start producing impacts in the economy. So meaning companies or borrowers, et cetera. So -- and we -- so our expectation, again, talking about our research department is more or less after elections. If the election is what market expects that could help stabilizing the market. And also reduce it -- go back to trust more in the peso, et cetera, because it means that the government will be able to make all the changes that they want. I mean that's what we expect.

我們不能在這裡待太久，因為如果我們開始對經濟產生影響。意思是公司或借款人等等。所以 — — 我們 — — 所以我們再次談論我們的研究部門的期望或多或少是在選舉之後。如果選舉結果符合市場預期，則可能有助於穩定市場。並且減少它——重新更加信任比索等等，因為這意味著政府將能夠做出他們想要的所有改變。我的意思是這正是我們所期望的。

But again, it is -- I mean, this can change from one way to the other, and it's something -- it's the base case we have built with our research department, but it's not nothing that we can ensure.

但再次強調，我的意思是，這可能會以某種方式改變，這是我們與研究部門共同建立的基本情況，但這並不是我們可以確保的。

Sorry, Gonzalo. Santiago i would like to add that once the -- both elections are over, the government, meaning the Ministry of Economy and the (inaudible) will be more perhaps receptive to change regulations because right now, they want to get to the elections with the stability in terms of inflation effects, volatility. So there could be some changes after that.

抱歉，貢薩洛。聖地牙哥，我想補充一點，一旦——兩次選舉都結束，政府，也就是經濟部和（聽不清楚）可能會更願意改變法規，因為現在，他們希望在選舉中保持通膨影響和波動方面的穩定。因此此後可能會發生一些變化。

The question-and-answer section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Pablo Firvida for the company's final remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我們想把發言權交還給 Pablo Firvida 先生，請他發表公司的最後評論。

Okay. Thank you. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning.

好的。謝謝。感謝大家參加本次電話會議。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時與我們聯絡。早安.

Grupo Financiero Galicia conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.

加利西亞金融集團會議現已結束。我們感謝您的參與並祝您有個愉快的一天。