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Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia first-quarter 2025 earnings call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available at the company's website at gfgsa.com. (Operator Instructions)
女士們、先生們,早安。歡迎參加加利西亞金融集團 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。這次會議正在錄製中,重播將在公司網站 gfgsa.com 上提供。(操作員指示)
Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provision of the US Federal Securities Laws and subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.
本次電話會議中的一些聲明將屬於美國聯邦證券法安全港條款所定義的前瞻性聲明,並受可能導致實際結果與所表達的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。
Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic scenario, the financial industry and other factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the respective forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Gonzalo Fernández Covaro, CFO; and Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.
投資者應注意與宏觀經濟情景、金融業和其他因素相關的事件,這些事件可能會導致結果與各自前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。現在,我將會議交給財務長 Gonzalo Fernández Covaro 先生和投資者關係主管 Pablo Firvida 先生。您可以開始您的會議了。
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Thank you, Sofia. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I'm Pablo Firvida, together with me is Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro. According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, MI, the Argentine economy recorded a 5.6% year-over-year increase during March, while in year-to-date terms, the economic expansion reached 6.1%.
謝謝你,索菲亞。早上好,歡迎參加本次電話會議。我是 Pablo Firvida,跟我一起的是 Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro。根據月度經濟活動指標MI,阿根廷經濟在3月年增5.6%,而年初至今的經濟擴張率達6.1%。
During the first quarter of 2025, the primary surplus reached 0.5% of GDP and the overall surplus 0.2% of GDP. This implied a slight deterioration compared to the first quarter of 2024 when primary surplus was 0.7% of GDP.
2025年第一季,初級盈餘達到GDP的0.5%,整體盈餘達到GDP的0.2%。這意味著與 2024 年第一季初級盈餘佔 GDP 的 0.7% 相比略有惡化。
The National Consumer Price Index accumulated an 8.6% increase during the first quarter of 2025 and an 11.6% rise as of the end of April, reaching a 47.3% annual variation from April 2024. On the monetary front, the monetary base increased by ARS0.8 trillion in the first quarter, recording a 145% increase as compared to March 2024.
2025年第一季,全國消費者物價指數累計上漲8.6%,截至4月底,累計上漲11.6%,與2024年4月相比,年變動率達47.3%。貨幣方面,第一季貨幣基礎增加了0.8兆阿根廷比索,與2024年3月相比成長了145%。
The exchange rate maintained a 2% monthly growth throughout 2024 and the Argentine Central Bank slowed the pace of adjustment to 1% per month starting February 1, 2025. The exchange rate averaged ARS1,069 per dollar in March 2025, a 20.5% devaluation in year-over-year terms.
2024年全年匯率維持每月2%的成長,阿根廷央行自2025年2月1日起將調整速度放緩至每月1%。2025 年 3 月,阿根廷比索兌美元平均匯率為 1,069 阿根廷比索,較去年同期貶值 20.5%。
On April 11, 2025, the Central Bank implemented a foreign exchange regime with a band within which the exchange rate may fluctuate freely. These bands were initially set between ARS1,000 and ARS1,400 per dollar and will be adjusted monthly at a rate of minus 1% for the lower bound and plus 1% for the upper bound. The monetary policy rate started 2025 at 22% but was reduced in late January to 29% and remained at this level until nowadays.
自2025年4月11日起,央行實施匯率區間自由浮動的外匯制度。這些區間最初設定為每美元 1,000 阿根廷比索至 1,400 阿根廷比索之間,並將每月進行調整,下限為負 1%,上限為正 1%。貨幣政策利率在2025年開始為22%,但在1月底降至29%,並維持在這一水準至今。
In March 2025, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59-days stood at 29.5%, 55.9 percentage points below the March 2024 average. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS80.6 trillion in March, increasing by 8.5% during the quarter and 89.9% in the last 12 months.
2025 年 3 月,以比索計價的私部門最長 59 天定期存款平均利率為 29.5%,比 2024 年 3 月平均利率低 55.9 個百分點。3 月私部門比索存款平均為 80.6 兆阿根廷披索,本季成長 8.5%,過去 12 個月成長 89.9%。
Time deposits in pesos rose 16.5% during the quarter and 125.9% in the year and peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 0.6% during the quarter and 60% in year-over-year terms. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $29.7 billion in March 2025, decreasing 6.6% during the quarter and rising 78.3% in the last 12 months.
比索定期存款本季成長 16.5%,全年成長 125.9%,比索交易存款本季成長 0.6%,較去年成長 60%。2025 年 3 月,私部門美元存款總額為 297 億美元,本季下降 6.6%,過去 12 個月成長 78.3%。
Peso-denominated loans to private sector averaged ARS60.8 trillion in March, showing a 20.1% quarterly increase and a 228.1% year-over-year rise and private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $14.1 billion, increasing 42.1% and 225.8%, respectively.
3月份,私部門披索貸款平均為60.8兆阿根廷披索,季增20.1%,年增228.1%;私部門美元貸款為141億美元,年增42.1%和225.8%。
Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. Net income for the first quarter amounted to ARS146 billion, 63% lower from the year ago quarter. The result comes from profits from Naranja X for ARS64 billion, from Banco Galicia for ARS37 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS29 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS11 billion. This profit represented a 1.7% annualized return on average assets and an 8.8% return on average shareholders' equity.
現在轉向加利西亞金融集團。第一季淨收入為1,460億阿根廷比索,較去年同期下降63%。這一結果包括來自 Naranja X 的 640 億阿根廷比索利潤、來自加利西亞銀行的 370 億阿根廷比索利潤、來自加利西亞資產管理公司的 290 億阿根廷比索利潤以及來自加利西亞保險公司的 110 億阿根廷比索利潤。此利潤代表平均資產年化報酬率為1.7%,平均股東權益年化報酬率為8.8%。
Going to Banco Galicia, the result of the quarter was negatively affected by the reduction in the prices of the trading bond portfolio and the increase in the cost of risk associated with the growth of the loan book and the increase in the NPLs in the retail segment.
對加利西亞銀行而言,本季業績受到交易債券組合價格下跌、貸款規模成長導致風險成本上升以及零售部門不良貸款增加的負面影響。
The net income for the quarter was 90% lower than in the same quarter of 2024 due to an 84% lower operating result. This was primarily a consequence of a 68% decrease of net operating income as net interest income decreased 66%, mainly because during the first quarter of 2024, the bond portfolio adjusted by inflation had remarkably high yields.
由於營業利潤下降 84%,本季淨收入比 2024 年同期下降 90%。這主要是因為營業淨收入下降 68%,因為淨利息收入下降 66%,主要是因為在 2024 年第一季度,經通膨調整後的債券組合殖利率非常高。
Net results from financial instruments fell 65% due to the reduction in the bond portfolio and results from foreign currency quotation differences decreased 80%. The above-mentioned decreases were partially offset by a 26% growth of net fee income.
由於債券投資組合減少,金融工具淨收益下降65%,外幣報價差異收益下降80%。上述減少部分被淨費用收入26%的成長所抵銷。
Average interest-earning assets reached ARS14.9 trillion, 45% higher than in the same quarter of 2024, primarily due to a 97% increase of the average portfolio of loans in pesos and of 702% of dollar-denominated loans, partially offset by an 88% reduction in the average balance of other interest-earning assets in pesos.
平均生息資產達到 14.9 兆阿根廷比索,比 2024 年同期高出 45%,這主要是由於比索貸款平均組合增長 97%、美元貸款增長 702%,但其他生息資產平均餘額比索減少 88% 部分抵消了這一增長。
In the same period, its yield decreased 95 percentage points, reaching 31.9%. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 67% from March 2024, amounting to ARS13.6 trillion, primarily due to the increase of time deposits in pesos and saving accounts and other deposits in foreign currency.
同期其收益率下降95個百分點,至31.9%。計息負債較 2024 年 3 月增加 67%,達到 13.6 兆阿根廷比索,主要由於比索定期存款以及儲蓄帳戶和其他外幣存款增加。
During this period, its cost decreased 41 percentage points to 13.9%. Net interest income decreased 66% when compared to the first quarter of 2024. This was the result of a 63% decrease in interest income because of an 80% lower interest on government securities and a 99% lower interest on repo transactions, together with a 58% decrease in interest expenses due to a 46% lower interest rate on time deposits and an 80% interest rate on other deposits.
在此期間,其成本下降了41個百分點,至13.9%。與 2024 年第一季相比,淨利息收入下降了 66%。這是由於政府證券利息下降 80%、回購交易利息下降 99% 導致利息收入下降 63%,同時定期存款利率下降 46% 、其他存款利率下降 80% 導致利息支出下降 58%。
Net fee income increased 26% from March 2024 due to a 26% higher income from credit card fees and of 34% from fees on deposits. Net income from financial instruments decreased 65% due to a 67% lower results from government securities.
由於信用卡費用收入增加 26% 以及存款費用收入增加 34%,淨費用收入較 2024 年 3 月增加 26%。由於政府證券業績下降 67%,金融工具淨收入下降 65%。
Gains from FX quotation differences were 80% lower than the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. Other operating income decreased 39% in the quarter, while provisions for loan losses increased 193% because of the growth of the financing portfolio and to an increase in delinquency.
包括外匯交易的收益在內,外匯報價差異帶來的收益比去年同期下降了 80%。本季其他營業收入下降了 39%,而貸款損失準備金卻增加了 193%,原因是融資組合的成長和拖欠率的增加。
Personnel expenses were 19% lower than a year before. And it is worth to mention that during this quarter, we began to use the provision for restructuring expenses established in the fourth quarter of 2024. Administrative expenses increased 25% due to a 57% increase of higher administrative services and a 20% increase of expenses for maintenance and repairment of goods and IT, and 187% higher publicity promotions and research expenses.
人事費用比去年同期降低了19%。值得一提的是,本季我們開始使用2024年第四季設立的重組費用準備金。管理費用增加了 25%,因為管理服務費用增加了 57%,貨物和 IT 維護和維修費用增加了 20%,宣傳促銷和研究費用增加了 187%。
Other operating expenses decreased 49% due to a 52% lower turnover tax related to financial operations and 97% lower charges for other provisions. Results from the net monetary position decreased 79% year over year following the downward evolution of the inflation. The income tax charge was 65% lower than in the year ago quarter due to lower operating results. Finally, the other comprehensive income included a ARS75.1 billion loss, mainly due to treasury bills LECAPs.
其他營運費用下降了 49%,原因是與金融營運相關的營業稅下降了 52%,其他準備金費用下降了 97%。隨著通貨膨脹的下行,淨貨幣狀況的結果比去年同期下降了 79%。由於經營業績下降,所得稅費用比去年同期下降了 65%。最後,其他綜合收入包括 751 億阿根廷比索的損失,主要由於國庫券 LECAP。
The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS12.6 trillion at the end of the quarter, up 107% in the last 12 months, with peso financing increasing 88% and dollar-denominated financing growing 177%. While by credit line, promissory notes increased 171%; credit card financing, 66%; and personal loans, 221%.
截至本季末,該行對私部門的融資額達到12.6兆阿根廷披索,過去12個月成長了107%,其中披索融資成長了88%,美元融資成長了177%。以信用額度劃分,本票增加了171%;信用卡融資增加了66%;個人貸款增加了221%。
Net exposure to the public sector decreased 35% year over year, primarily due to the reduction of repo transactions. This exposure represented 19% of total assets as of the end of the quarter compared to 40% of the year before.
公部門淨敞口較去年同期下降35%,主要原因是回購交易減少。截至本季末,此一風險敞口佔總資產的 19%,而去年同期這一比例為 40%。
Deposits reached ARS15 trillion, 48% higher than a year before, mainly due to 121% increase in saving accounts in dollars and a 69% increase in time deposits in pesos, partially offset by a 16% decrease in other deposits in pesos.
存款達到 15 兆阿根廷比索,比上年增長 48%,主要原因是美元儲蓄帳戶增加 121%,比索定期存款增加 69%,但比索其他存款減少 16% 部分抵消了這一影響。
The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 13%, 78 basis points higher than at the end of the year ago quarter and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 14.2%, 400 basis points higher than in the same quarter of 2024.
該銀行估計私部門貸款的市佔率為 13%,比去年同期末高出 78 個基點,私部門存款的市佔率為 14.2%,比 2024 年同期高出 400 個基點。
The bank's liquid assets represented 62.4% of transactional deposits and 39.3% of total deposits compared to 104.9% and 65.9%, respectively, from a year before. As regards asset quality, the ratio of non-performing loans to total financing ended the quarter at 2.75%, recording a 66 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2.09% of the first quarter of the prior year. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 153.3%, up 4.9 percentage points from the 148.4% recorded a year ago.
該銀行的流動資產佔交易存款的 62.4% 和總存款的 39.3%,而去年同期分別為 104.9% 和 65.9%。資產品質方面,本季末不良貸款佔融資總額的比例為2.75%,較去年同期的2.09%下降了66個基點。同時,配額覆蓋率達到153.3%,較去年同期的148.4%上升了4.9個百分點。
As of the end of March 2025, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 21.1%, decreasing 10.7 percentage points from the end of the same quarter of 2024, while the Tier 1 ratio was 20.8%, down 12.5 percentage points during the same period. Consolidated with Galicia Más, the total capital ratio would have been 25.3%.
截至2025年3月末,該行總監管資本充足率達21.1%,較2024年同季末下降10.7個百分點;一級資本充足率達20.8%,較2024年同季末下降12.5個百分點。與 Galicia Más 合併後,總資本比率將達到 25.3%。
In summary, in a challenging political and macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity, solvency and profitability metrics at healthy levels and at the same time, continue to move forward with the integration with Galicia Más, which would be completed before the end of next June. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.
綜上所述,在充滿挑戰的政治和宏觀環境下,加利西亞金融集團能夠將資產品質、流動性、償付能力和盈利能力指標保持在健康水平,同時繼續推進與 Galicia Más 的整合,該整合將於明年 6 月底前完成。我們現在準備好回答您可能提出的問題。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Brian Flores, Citi.
(操作員指示)花旗銀行的 Brian Flores。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
Hi, Pablo, Gonzalo. Thank you for the opportunity to ask a question. Just wanted -- the first one, if I can, on the guidance. We have seen some of your peers already shifting some of the lines in the guidance. And I think you did not mention it in your remarks. So I just wanted to know if you're making any changes on any of the lines.
你好,Pablo,Gonzalo。感謝您給我提問的機會。我只是想——如果可以的話,第一個是關於指導。我們已經看到一些同行已經改變了指導意見中的一些內容。我認為您在評論中沒有提到這一點。所以我只是想知道您是否對任何線路進行了任何更改。
And then the second question is on asset quality because we are seeing some fast deterioration. I know there was some changes on accounting, and I know the fourth quarter had perhaps some spikes. But I think now this is more comparable, and we are still seeing some pressures on asset quality.
第二個問題是關於資產質量,因為我們看到資產品質正在快速惡化。我知道會計方面發生了一些變化,我知道第四季度可能出現了一些高峰。但我認為現在這更具可比性,我們仍然看到資產品質面臨一些壓力。
So could you elaborate a bit on where is it coming from this increase in delinquency, particularly? And also, we should expect this to normalize or maybe, I don't know, the new ranges -- I know we're coming from a low base, but the new range is a bit higher than what we were initially expecting. Thank you.
那麼,您能否具體解釋一下犯罪率上升的原因是什麼?而且,我們應該預期這會正常化,或者也許,我不知道,新的範圍——我知道我們來自一個較低的基數,但新的範圍比我們最初預期的要高一些。謝謝。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Thank you for the question. I mean in terms of guidance, we are seeing ROE for the year now between 12% and 13% for the group. As we said, this is a transition year for us and we believe for the entire financial system, where we are building our portfolio. And we're coming from very low levels of lending, so we're in that process of building the portfolio and compensating lower margins with higher volumes.
是的。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是,就指導而言,我們預計該集團今年的 ROE 將在 12% 至 13% 之間。正如我們所說,對我們來說這是一個過渡年,我們相信對整個金融體係也是如此,我們正在建立我們的投資組合。我們的貸款水準非常低,因此我們正在建立投資組合,並透過更高的貸款量來彌補較低的利潤率。
And on top of that, we have the merge with Galicia Más, and we expect some expenses on the transition -- on the integration from the IT side. But also from the integration, we expect -- we may be short on the restructuring provision booked last quarter. We may need a bit more.
除此之外,我們還與 Galicia Más 進行了合併,我們預計在 IT 方面的整合和過渡方面會產生一些費用。但從整合來看,我們預期——我們上個季度預訂的重組準備金可能會不足。我們可能還需要更多。
So we don't know numbers yet, but that's what we are seeing with how things are evolving, which is a good news for the future. It may have some more expenses this year. So that's why we are changing also the guidance on ROE for the group.
所以我們還不知道具體數字,但這就是我們所看到的事物的發展,這對未來來說是個好消息。今年可能會多一些支出。這就是我們也改變集團 ROE 指導的原因。
Talking about delinquency or NPLs, I mean, we were coming -- the increase in NPLs comes from the individual portfolio, not wholesale. Wholesale is really flat. So I would say this is entire for our consumer lending, let's say. But that is the one that grew fastest and started to grow fast. So we were coming from very low levels.
談到拖欠或不良貸款,我的意思是,不良貸款的增加來自個人投資組合,而不是批發。批發確實持平。所以我想說,這對我們的消費貸款來說就是全部了。但那是成長最快、開始快速成長的一個。所以我們的起點非常低。
We expect -- so we saw -- as the financial system in Argentina saw increase on NPLs, we are seeing that. We made some changes in origination in the fourth quarter because I think we are also trying to look what the sweet spot where we want to be.
我們預計——我們也看到——隨著阿根廷金融體係不良貸款的增加,我們看到了這一點。我們在第四季度對起源做出了一些改變,因為我認為我們也在努力尋找我們想要的最佳點。
After a high growth, it's something unusual for the local system to grow as fast. So we are now -- we made those changes. So we expect this to stabilize. And by the end of the year, the NPLs to be around or a bit less than what we are currently having. We may see still a spike in NPLs in the next couple of months, but then a reduction or stabilization for the end of the year.
在經歷了高速成長之後,地方系統還能如此快速地發展,這是不尋常的。所以我們現在——我們做出了這些改變。因此我們預計這一情況將會穩定下來。到今年年底,不良貸款餘額將與當前水準持平或略低。我們可能在未來幾個月內仍會看到不良貸款激增,但到年底則會減少或穩定下來。
So we knew that that was something was going to happen when you grow at this pace. Again, we were coming from low levels. We believe that now with the changes we make, we will be able to stabilize that and get to a normal, let's say, levels.
所以我們知道,以這樣的速度成長,就會發生一些事情。再說一次,我們的起點很低。我們相信,透過我們所做的改變,我們將能夠穩定這一狀況並達到正常水平。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
Thank you, Gonzalo. So just to confirm on the ROE range, you're decreasing a bit from 15% to 12% to 13%. And then can you confirm if the loan growth of 50% in real terms and deposits between 30% and 40% are reiterated or have any changes?
謝謝你,貢薩洛。因此,僅確認 ROE 範圍,您將從 15% 稍微下降到 12% 到 13%。然後您能否確認貸款實際成長50%、存款實際成長30%至40%是否重申或有什麼變化?
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
No, the growth rates are -- we are keeping those. We think that those are still what's going to happen. Remember that as you said 12%, 13% in real terms. So our ROE has already excluded inflation because in Argentina, we have inflation accounting and that's already included in the P&L, as you just said.
不,成長率是——我們會保持這些。我們認為這些仍將發生。記住,正如你所說,實際上是 12%、13%。因此,我們的 ROE 已經排除了通貨膨脹,因為在阿根廷,我們有通貨膨脹核算,而且正如您剛才所說,這已經包含在損益表中。
Operator
Operator
Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America
埃內斯托·加比隆多,美國銀行
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Thank you. Hi, good morning, Gonzalo, Pablo, and the team. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My first one will be a follow-up in asset quality. So we noticed a high NPL ratio. But at the same time, we also saw cost of risk normalized from last quarter as it was abnormally high because of an impact on Tarjetas. So just wondering how should we think about the cost of risk evolving in the next quarters and for the full year?
謝謝。大家好,Gonzalo、Pablo 和團隊各位早安。感謝給我提問的機會。我的第一件事是跟進資產品質。因此我們注意到不良貸款率很高。但同時,我們也看到風險成本從上個季度開始正常化,因為先前由於 Tarjetas 的影響風險成本異常高。所以只是想知道我們應該如何看待未來幾季和全年的風險成本變化?
My second question is on expenses. We saw lower-than-expected expenses because you have started to use the expense provision build for HSBC in fourth quarter. But at the same time, you were saying that you should expect some expenses related to IT and the integration costs related to Galicia Más. So I just wanted to think how should we expect OpEx growth for the year? And if there is at some point, room to do some cost synergies?
我的第二個問題是關於費用的。我們看到的費用低於預期,因為您已在第四季度開始使用為匯豐銀行建立的費用撥備。但同時,您也說過您應該預期一些與 IT 相關的費用以及與 Galicia Más 相關的整合成本。所以我只是想知道我們應該如何預期今年的營運支出成長?如果在某個時候有空間實現一些成本協同效應呢?
And my last question will be on deposits. We have seen one of your peers remunerating deposits at 32% to attract clients. So I just wanted to know if you are following a similar strategy with your credit card business. Would it be the same strategy at the bank? So any color on this remuneration on deposits on each of the subsidiaries will be very helpful.
我的最後一個問題是關於存款的。我們看到你們的一位同行以 32% 的利率支付存款以吸引客戶。所以我只是想知道您的信用卡業務是否也採取類似的策略。銀行會採取同樣的策略嗎?因此,了解各家子公司存款報酬的任何細節都將非常有幫助。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you. So to remember -- the three questions, cost of risk. Cost of risk as you see, for the group is stable. We have seen a bit increase in the bank and a bit reduction in Naranja. So talking about the bank, Galicia Banco, I mean, we'll see a spike in the first quarter, as it says. We may see something also to continue in the second quarter but then start to go down. And we expect a lower number in the fourth quarter, around 5%, 5.5%, something like that, 5.6% versus the 6.8% that we are having now.
謝謝。所以要記住--這三個問題,風險成本。如您所見,該集團的風險成本是穩定的。我們看到銀行的存款略有增加,而 Naranja 的存款略有減少。因此,談到加利西亞銀行,我的意思是,正如它所說的那樣,我們將在第一季看到其業務的激增。我們可能也會看到一些現像在第二季持續,但隨後開始下降。我們預計第四季度的數字會較低,約為 5%、5.5% 或 5.6% 左右,而目前的成長率為 6.8%。
So for the bank, we see -- Naranja is stable. And for the bank, we'll see an improvement on the second half of the year. First half we still be at these levels. We may see for the second half, some improvement because of all the actions on the origination that I mentioned.
因此對於銀行而言,我們看到——Naranja 是穩定的。對銀行來說,我們將看到下半年情況有所改善。上半場我們仍然保持這樣的水準。由於我提到的所有起源行動,我們可能會在下半年看到一些改善。
Talking about expenses, I think was the second one about the -- I mean, what you see -- you see a reduction in expenses quarter over quarter, not just because we are using the provision, but because last quarter, we booked the provision.
談到費用,我認為第二個是關於——我的意思是,你看到的——你看到費用逐季減少,這不僅是因為我們使用了撥備,還因為上個季度,我們記入了撥備。
So last quarter, you have a provision but this year -- this quarter, you don't have it because the provision is paying for voluntary redundancies. So that's the main variation you'll see quarter over quarter.
因此,上個季度,您有一項準備金,但今年 - 本季度,您沒有,因為該準備金用於支付自願裁員費用。這就是每季都會看到的主要變化。
So that's talking about -- I think you are talking about the synergies on Galicia Más or former HSBC. That's going -- I think the good news is we are anticipating and having a fast approach on synergies because we may be able to perform almost 90% of the synergies expected this year. The point is it's difficult now to predict on which space because at some point, you have the saving, but also if that happens, we may have a bit of higher restructuring expenses.
所以這就是在談論——我認為你在談論 Galicia Más 或前匯豐銀行的協同效應。這是——我認為好消息是我們正在預期並快速實現協同效應,因為我們可能能夠實現今年預期的近 90% 的協同效應。關鍵是現在很難預測哪個領域會節省,因為在某個時候,你會有儲蓄,但如果發生這種情況,我們可能會有更高的重組費用。
As I mentioned in prior question, we -- the provision that we booked last quarter may not be enough. So if this trend continues. So if that happens, we may have a one-off this year of more restructuring expenses, but with the good news that we are getting a sustainable saving for the future.
正如我在之前的問題中提到的,我們上個季度預留的資金可能不夠。所以如果這種趨勢持續下去。因此,如果發生這種情況,我們今年可能會出現一次性的重組費用,但好消息是,我們將為未來獲得可持續的儲蓄。
So for the year, I would say it's a bit soon to say because it will be a mix of accelerating some synergies. And so the good thing of the savings, but also the one-off of the restructuring. But we expect that -- I think that the summary is that at the end, we may end with a bit higher expenses because of the integration, system expenses, and restructuring expenses, but with a faster approach. So we can start next year better than what we thought when we thought about this plan. And I think there was another one.
因此,對於今年而言,我認為現在說這個還為時過早,因為這將是一種加速一些協同效應的混合。這不僅是節省開支的好事情,也是一次性的重組。但我們預期——我認為總結一下,由於整合、系統費用和重組費用,我們最終可能會有稍高一點的費用,但我們會採取更快的方法。因此,我們可以比制定這個計劃時預想的更好地開始明年。我認為還有另外一個。
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Remuneration of deposits.
存款報酬。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Remuneration of deposits. I mean, as you know, Naranja X is remunerating deposits is plan of their business model. I mean they take deposits on the digital wallet, and they lend personal loans. In the bank, it's different. As you know, our current deposit base, we have our mutual fund, which is called FIMA, the money market deposits that is 24/7. So customers can use that as a remunerating account.
存款報酬。我的意思是,如你所知,Naranja X 正在獎勵存款,這是其商業模式的計劃。我的意思是他們在數位錢包中接受存款,並提供個人貸款。但在銀行,情況就不同了。如您所知,我們目前的存款基礎是共同基金,稱為 FIMA,即全天候貨幣市場存款。因此客戶可以將其用作報酬帳戶。
We are not seeing any big change in the near future. Of course, we are always analyzing strategic alternatives and see what's best for our customers and for our funding base. But I wouldn't say we are making any -- we are thinking in any major change in the near future.
我們不認為近期會出現任何重大變化。當然,我們始終在分析策略替代方案,並尋找對我們的客戶和資金基礎最有利的方案。但我不會說我們正在做出任何改變——我們正在考慮在不久的將來做出任何重大改變。
This, of course, can change, as I said, because we're always analyzing opportunity. But so far, we believe that for the bank, we are not thinking in that we're going to apply that option, let's say.
當然,正如我所說,這種情況可能會改變,因為我們一直在分析機會。但到目前為止,我們認為,對於銀行而言,我們還沒有考慮採用該選項。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Perfect, thank you very much, Gonzalo. Just a follow-up on this last one. Can you share with us how much are you remunerating in Naranja X? How much is in the mutual funds of the bank? Just to have an idea of how is the difference between them?
非常好,非常感謝,Gonzalo。這只是對最後一個問題的後續跟進。您能與我們分享一下您在 Naranja X 的薪酬是多少嗎?銀行的共同基金裡有多少?只是想了解它們之間有何不同?
And additionally, are you seeing competitors being aggressive, and at some point, potentially changing the strategy of your -- of the bank? Or do you think it's still too soon to know?
此外,您是否發現競爭對手錶現得咄咄逼人,並可能在某個時候改變您銀行的策略?還是您認為現在知道還為時過早?
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
I mean if you're talking about that, I mean, about remunerating accounts so far, as you said, we just saw one bank doing it, so we don't -- we haven't seen a real change in the market. If you look at market share, I mean, banks with higher market share haven't changed that policy so far.
我的意思是,如果您談論的是這個,我的意思是,到目前為止,關於獎勵帳戶,正如您所說,我們只看到一家銀行這樣做,所以我們沒有 - 我們還沒有看到市場發生真正的變化。如果你看一下市場份額,我的意思是,市場份額較高的銀行到目前為止還沒有改變該政策。
We are not seeing any change in general. Of course, there are some players that may do, as you mentioned. So we are not seeing other changes like that. Of course, that may happen. In terms of rates, Pablo.
總體而言,我們沒有看到任何變化。當然,正如您所說,有些球員可能會這樣做。因此我們沒有看到其他類似的變化。當然,這是有可能發生的。就利率而言,Pablo。
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Yeah. I would like to add some comment there. Today, the funding breakdown in pesos for us is 70% with cost, 30% with no cost. And it's very atomized. And as inflation is going down, this threaten is becoming smaller, I would say. It was very important to remunerate transactional accounts or deposits when monthly inflation was much higher than today.
是的。我想在那裡添加一些評論。今天,我們的資金組成(以比索計算)是 70% 包含成本,30% 不包含成本。而且非常原子化。我想說,隨著通貨膨脹的下降,這種威脅變得越來越小。當月通膨率遠高於今天時,對交易帳戶或存款進行補償非常重要。
In the case of our money market fund, the last yield I saw was around 23.8%, 24%. That is what is yielding, and you can withdraw it any time, any day, any hour. And in the case of Naranja, it's in the range of 30%. It has some different buckets, and you have limits in terms of amount. But on average, it would be around that number.
就我們的貨幣市場基金而言,我看到的最新收益率約為 23.8%、24%。這就是屈服,你可以隨時、任何一天、任何小時收回它。就 Naranja 而言,這一比例在 30% 左右。它有一些不同的桶,並且在數量方面有限制。但平均而言,大約是這個數字。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. If you leave more the money like a time deposit, they pay you more. But I think it's important what Pablo just said. I mean we see that the attractiveness of the remuneration with inflation going down. It's always valid, but it lose attractiveness for the customer base because of the lower interest rates and the less inflation to combat.
是的。如果您存入更多錢(例如定期存款),他們會付給您更多錢。但我認為帕布羅剛才說的話很重要。我的意思是,我們看到隨著通貨膨脹的下降,薪酬的吸引力也隨之下降。它始終有效,但由於利率較低且需要應對的通貨膨脹較少,它對客戶群失去了吸引力。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Perfect. Thank you very much, Gonzalo and Pablo.
完美的。非常感謝 Gonzalo 和 Pablo。
Operator
Operator
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, HSBC
卡洛斯·戈麥斯-洛佩茲,匯豐銀行
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Hello, thank you very much for taking my question. I don't think you have mentioned the economic assumptions that you have. I would like to know what you expect in terms of growth, inflation and exchange rate and interest rates by the end of the year and next year?
您好,非常感謝您回答我的問題。我認為您沒有提到您的經濟假設。我想知道您對今年年底和明年的成長、通膨、匯率和利率有何預期?
Second, in terms of asset quality, you mentioned that on the corporate portfolio, everything has been fine. But we are seeing news of a number of corporates which are starting to not pay at least the debentures, the capital markets issuance. Do you think that you will see more such problems as interest rates go down and companies have to change their business models? Are you concerned about your cost of risk in the corporate segment? Thank you.
第二,關於資產質量,您提到企業投資組合一切良好。但我們看到有消息稱,許多公司開始不償還至少債券和資本市場發行的債券。您是否認為,隨著利率下降和企業不得不改變其商業模式,還會出現更多此類問題?您是否擔心企業部門的風險成本?謝謝。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Talking about the second question first, starting, and then I leave Pablo to take the other one. On the wholesale, yeah, I mean, for example, you are talking, I'm sure about news over the last days about a company that is defaulting their issuance or the commercial papers.
先談第二個問題,然後我請 Pablo 回答另一個問題。關於批發,是的,我的意思是,例如,你正在談論,我確信最近幾天有關於某家公司拖欠其發行或商業票據的新聞。
For example, in that exposure, we have a very, very low, less than $6 million unsecured and then a couple of million secured. So we have a very low exposure on that one. So I mean, we -- with this change of Argentina they made -- this change of country model, I would say, maybe sectors winners and sectors that we lose.
例如,在這種風險敞口中,我們的無擔保風險敞口非常非常低,不到 600 萬美元,擔保風險敞口則有幾百萬美元。所以我們對此的曝光率非常低。所以我的意思是,隨著阿根廷國家模式的改變,我想說,也許有些領域是贏家,而有些領域則是輸家。
So far that our portfolio is well balanced and really, of course, that if things doesn't improve as expected in Argentina, things can go south. But so far, we don't -- we are not seeing a concentration in an area where an industry that is concerning us that can affect materially our performance. We can have things here and there, but we are not seeing so far, as I said, a concentration that can -- that is concerning us for the reasons you just mentioned.
到目前為止,我們的投資組合非常平衡,當然,如果阿根廷的情況沒有像預期的那樣改善,情況可能會變得更糟。但到目前為止,我們還沒有看到我們所關注的產業集中度會對我們的業績產生重大影響。我們可以在這裡和那裡做一些事情,但正如我所說的,到目前為止,我們還沒有看到能夠集中精力的事情——出於您剛才提到的原因,這讓我們感到擔憂。
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Hi, Carlos. Now regarding the macroeconomic assumptions, these are from our chief economist. There is also a good source that is the Central Bank in which like 50 economies have their estimates, and it's a kind of average. But looking at our chief economist, in terms of GDP, he's forecasting 5.4% growth this year and 4.5% next year.
你好,卡洛斯。關於宏觀經濟假設,這些來自我們的首席經濟學家。還有一個很好的來源,那就是中央銀行,其中大約有 50 個經濟體有他們的估計值,這是一種平均值。但看看我們的首席經濟學家,就 GDP 而言,他預測今年的成長率為 5.4%,明年的成長率為 4.5%。
Inflation for this year, 26%. That is the December-December variation. And for next year, 14%. When we look at the FX, it's a moving target, but the last number he gave us was 1,230 at the end of this year and close to 1,400 next year. These are the main assumptions. In terms of interest rates, all or most of the interest rates are going down a little bit due to this expected reduction in inflation.
今年的通貨膨脹率為26%。這是 12 月至 12 月的變化。明年則為 14%。當我們看外匯時,它是一個移動的目標,但他給我們的最後一個數字是今年年底的 1,230,明年接近 1,400。這些是主要假設。就利率而言,由於預期通膨下降,所有或大部分利率都會略有下降。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
So I mean we're at 32%, I think the policy rate is right now.
所以我的意思是我們現在的政策利率是 32%。
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Rate is 29%.
利率為29%。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
29%, okay. So by the end of the year, lower than that?
29%,好的。那麼到年底,數字會低於這個水準嗎?
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Next year, he's forecasting something around 24%. Again, it's a moving target, but that was the last number he provided.
他預測明年的增幅將在 24% 左右。再次強調,這是一個不斷變化的目標,但這是他提供的最後一個數字。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
It's important to mention, Carlos, what we are seeing because of the high demand of lending and loans growing faster than deposits. We are not seeing really even though the Central Bank has reduced the monetary policy rate, we are not seeing that happen also that going together with the lending rates in the market because, again, as I said, I mean, demand for loans is high.
值得一提的是,卡洛斯,我們看到的是貸款需求旺盛,貸款成長速度快於存款。儘管央行已經降低了貨幣政策利率,但我們並沒有看到這種情況發生,而且市場貸款利率也沒有下降,因為正如我所說,貸款需求很高。
And so we are not at that point. And for that reason, we are not seeing that even though rates will continue going down, we are not seeing that lending rate mainly in the individuals, but also in SMEs that that will continue to get that reduction.
所以我們還沒有到達那個地步。因此,儘管利率會繼續下降,但我們不會看到個人貸款利率以及中小企業貸款利率繼續下降。
Of course, it may go something down, but not at the same proportion because, again, in the fact in the first quarter, we saw margin -- if you exclude margin government bonds, our margin reduction was mainly affected by the government trading portfolio. But if you exclude that and do margin in pesos, excluding the government bond performance, it increased a couple of hundred basis points from prior quarter.
當然,它可能會下降,但比例不會相同,因為事實上,在第一季度,我們看到了保證金——如果不包括保證金政府債券,我們的保證金減少主要受到政府交易組合的影響。但如果你排除這一點,並以比索計算保證金,不包括政府債券表現,它比上一季增加了幾百個基點。
Because of the fast growth in lending, the high demand, the lending rates are not going down in the market. Just to complement that not -- because of Argentina situation, not necessarily a reduction in monetary policy rate will imply a reduction in the lending or in the whole margin of the banks.
由於貸款成長迅速,需求旺盛,市場貸款利率並未下降。只是補充一下——由於阿根廷的情況,貨幣政策利率的降低並不一定意味著貸款或銀行整體利潤的減少。
Operator
Operator
Pedro Leduc, Itau BBA.
佩德羅·勒杜克(Pedro Leduc),伊塔烏 BBA。
Pedro Leduc - Analyst
Pedro Leduc - Analyst
Thank you very much for the call, taking the question. Pleasure to be here. First, on Naranja X specifically, very nice ROE close to 30%. If you can talk a little bit more about the business drivers here. It seems like on the NIM side and provisions also in the next few quarters. And if this should be still growing higher than the rest of the business?
非常感謝您打電話來回答這個問題。很高興來到這裡。首先,具體到 Naranja X,ROE 非常好,接近 30%。如果您能在這裡多談談業務驅動因素的話。看起來 NIM 方面和撥備方面也會在接下來的幾季出現。這是否仍應比其他業務成長得更高?
And then last -- second question and quick on the market share that you report there under Galicia Más was fell from high 2%s to low 2% this quarter.
然後是最後一個問題,您報告的 Galicia Más 市佔率本季從 2% 高點下降到 2% 低點。
I understand there's an adjustment process taking place. So if you can share a little more if this is already the market share that we should see, if there's already more going to the other parts of the group. So these will be the two questions. Thank you.
我知道正在進行一個調整過程。因此,如果您可以分享更多信息,這是否已經是我們應該看到的市場份額,如果已經有更多份額流向集團的其他部分。這就是兩個問題。謝謝。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
I'll start with the second one, which is the Galicia market share. I mean what is happening there is we are anticipating customer migrations in wholesale, for example, meaning complex customers, we are already asking them to open accounts in Galicia and start to transfer deposits and their transactionality to Galicia.
我先從第二個開始,也就是加利西亞的市佔率。我的意思是,我們預計批發業務的客戶會遷移,例如,對於複雜的客戶,我們已經要求他們在加利西亞開設帳戶,並開始將存款和交易轉移到加利西亞。
So it's easier for the integration, not need to migrate complex customers that, for example, you have to trade finance, structured products. I mean talking about wholesale, not retail. So in that case, even though you see market share reduction, part of that is done by the movement or the transition to Galicia in advance to the migration. And so that's for the market share. Pablo, if you want to answer the other?
因此整合更加容易,不需要遷移複雜的客戶,例如,您必須交易融資、結構化產品。我指的是批發,不是零售。因此在這種情況下,即使你看到市場份額的減少,部分原因也是由於遷移之前向加利西亞的遷移或過渡造成的。這就是市場佔有率。帕布羅,你想回答另一個問題嗎?
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Yes. On Naranja X, you can see an increase in the margin, in the financial margin and an improvement in the cost of risk. Basically, these are the two main drivers, and they have been growing both in number of clients and in loans origination.
是的。在 Naranja X 上,您可以看到利潤率、財務利潤率的增加以及風險成本的改善。基本上,這是兩個主要驅動力,而且客戶數量和貸款發放量都在增加。
Typically, for Naranja when interest rates go down, their cost of funding improves more than the interest rate they can charge for personal loans and credit card financing. So typically, there is a margin expansion in their case. It's different from the bank.
通常情況下,對於 Naranja 來說,當利率下降時,其融資成本的提高幅度會高於個人貸款和信用卡融資的利率。因此,通常情況下,他們的利潤率都會擴大。這與銀行不同。
And the cost of risk improved basically because in the fourth quarter, they have changed the model for expected losses. Basically, they had a model that took into account or use variables that were more related with credit card financing. And as they were growing significantly with personal loans, they had to adapt and change that model. That's why the cost of risk went down from levels of -- I don't remember exactly from 19% to 15% or so.
風險成本的改善主要是因為他們在第四季度改變了預期損失的模型。基本上,他們有一個模型,考慮或使用與信用卡融資更相關的變數。隨著個人貸款業務的大幅成長,他們必須適應並改變這種模式。這就是為什麼風險成本從——我不記得具體是從 19% 下降到 15% 左右。
So the profitability of Naranja should be good for the full year. What should happen is that the weight of the bank should be recovering. It's very unusual that Naranja has a higher net income than Banco Galicia.
因此,Naranja 全年的盈利能力應該會很好。應該發生的是,銀行的權重應該會恢復。Naranja 的淨收入高於加利西亞銀行,這很不尋常。
Pedro Leduc - Analyst
Pedro Leduc - Analyst
Very clear and complete answers. Thank you, both.
非常清晰和完整的答案。謝謝你們兩位。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Rodrigo Nistor, Latin Securities.
(操作員指示) Rodrigo Nistor,拉丁證券。
With loan growth consistently outpacing deposit growth, a moderation in loan growth seems inevitable. How does management envision real loan growth settling post transition period, say, by early 4Q '26?
由於貸款成長持續超過存款成長,貸款成長放緩似乎是不可避免的。管理階層如何預期過渡期後實際貸款成長能夠穩定下來,例如 2026 年第四季初?
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
The first comment I can say is that when you look at the loan-to-deposit ratio, typically, it's very different between pesos and dollar, big numbers. In pesos, 90%; in dollars, 50%. We are seeing different growth rates from deposits and loans. But of course, the stocks are different. So we must look at the absolute amount.
我要說的第一點是,當你查看貸款與存款比率時,通常比索和美元之間的差異很大,數字很大。以比索計算,為 90%;以美元計算,為 50%。我們看到存款和貸款的成長率不同。但當然,股票是不同的。所以我們必須看絕對數量。
In certain months, there could be more shortage, let's say, of funding. And that is why the bank has been issuing different bonds recently in pesos, in dollars. Typically in dollars, we sold the dollars, and we lend pesos and we cover the dollars with the forward.
在某些月份,資金短缺的情況可能會更加嚴重。這就是為什麼該銀行最近一直以比索和美元發行不同債券。通常以美元計算,我們賣出美元,借出比索,並用遠期合約彌補美元損失。
So we are looking at different ways to have that demand satisfied. The idea is to keep on growing, and that's why we are keeping the guidance of 50% loan growth this year.
因此,我們正在尋找不同的方法來滿足這項需求。我們的想法是持續成長,這就是我們今年保持 50% 貸款成長目標的原因。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I mean just want to add. I mean, of course, we are doing -- going after institutional deposits like commercial paper but also, trying to focusing a lot in deposits, which is the core funding and the more safe funding.
是的。我只是想補充一下。我的意思是,當然,我們正在追求商業票據等機構存款,但同時也試圖將重點放在存款上,這是核心資金和更安全的資金。
But we are seeing, of course, that the loans are growing faster than deposits. And that at some point will change because that not for Galicia, but for the local financial system could be a constraint in the lending growth. But we believe that even though the pile of deposit doesn't grow, we believe that we are in a very well position to capture more market share in deposits with our size and our reach to different segments and customers.
但我們當然看到貸款的成長速度快於存款的成長速度。但這種情況在某個時候會改變,因為這可能不是對加利西亞,而是對當地金融體系的貸款成長造成限制。但我們相信,儘管存款規模沒有成長,但我們相信,憑藉我們的規模以及對不同細分市場和客戶的覆蓋範圍,我們完全有能力在存款領域佔據更多的市場份額。
We believe that we can do a good job there. And the pile of low deposit doesn't grow, we can get more market share and be able to continue growing our lending. So that's a focus of all the business lines to get more deposits. As you know, the raw material to continue growing lending. And again, we believe that we are in a good position to achieve that and be able to maintain the lending growth as projected.
我們相信我們能夠在那裡做好工作。而且低額存款的累積不會增加,我們可以獲得更多的市場份額,並且能夠繼續增加我們的貸款。因此,所有業務線的重點都是獲得更多存款。如大家所知,原料貸款持續成長。我們再次相信,我們完全有能力實現這一目標,並且能夠維持預期的貸款成長。
Operator
Operator
Next question from Mathias Cataruzzi.
下一個問題來自 Mathias Cataruzzi。
With inflation decelerating, how do you see net interest margins evolving? Are there specific repricing strategies or asset mix shifts planned to help protect margins going forward?
隨著通膨放緩,您認為淨利差將如何演變?是否有具體的重新定價策略或資產組合調整計畫來幫助保護未來的利潤率?
Deposits declined 5% quarter on quarter in real terms. Was this a seasonal effect or driven by a competitive pressure? What strategies are in place to recover deposit momentum? And do you expect the recent dollar-related measures announced by the government to enhance your dollar business and support deposit growth?
存款實際較上季下降5%。這是季節性影響還是競爭壓力所致?有哪些策略可以恢復存款動能?您是否預期政府近期宣布的與美元相關的措施將增強您的美元業務並支持存款成長?
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
I mean deposits, as I said, deposits are growing. That's something punctual. We are not seeing deposits reduction in general. And if you see in the bank, I think that's group what you are talking about. But I mean, we really -- what we are seeing is deposits growing lower than loans, but not that we are losing market share in deposits, nothing like that. So we are in the bank.
我的意思是存款,正如我所說,存款正在成長。這是一件很準時的事。整體而言,我們並未看到存款減少。如果你在銀行看到,我想這就是你所說的群體。但我的意思是,我們確實——我們看到的是存款成長低於貸款,但並不意味著我們在存款方面失去了市場份額,並非如此。所以我們在銀行。
We are not seeing that happening. That could be something, again, temporal. So we are continuing to focus, as I said before or our tools. We foresee growing deposits because we want to continue growing lending.
我們沒有看到這種情況發生。這可能又是暫時的。因此,正如我之前所說,我們將繼續關注我們的工具。我們預計存款將會成長,因為我們希望繼續增加貸款。
Talking about margins, I mean, we as I said, what you see here in margin reduction, yes, is an important reduction in government bonds quarter over quarter. If you go -- that it was an important income for banks, of course, but that March, April, we already start to see an increase or a recuperation on our trading portfolio. And we are one-third more or less of what we lose.
談到利潤率,我的意思是,正如我所說,您在這裡看到的利潤率下降是的,政府債券的數量逐季度大幅減少。如果你去的話——這當然是銀行的重要收入,但從三月、四月開始,我們已經開始看到交易組合的成長或回升。而我們所損失的金額大約有三分之一。
In the first quarter, it's already recovered between April and May. But if we excluded government bonds investments, I think, as I said before, we are seeing our margins in pesos, for example, being flat quarter over quarter. And if we exclude government lending in pesos, we are seeing an increase of 200 basis points between fourth quarter and first quarter.
第一季度,4月到5月之間就已經恢復了。但如果我們排除政府債券投資,我認為,正如我之前所說,我們的比索利潤率將環比持平。如果我們排除以比索計價的政府貸款,我們會發現第四季和第一季之間的比索貸款增加了 200 個基點。
So we are seeing high demand in lending. So really, the lending rate has not gone down. In fact, in some products, lending rate has gone up in the last months, and it may continue happening if lending demand continues at this level.
因此,我們看到貸款需求很高。所以實際上貸款利率並沒有下降。事實上,某些產品的貸款利率在過去幾個月已經上升,如果貸款需求持續保持在這個水平,這種趨勢可能還會持續下去。
So margin, we may see some margin reduction in the government securities side. That depends, of course, also the volatility of Argentina. And they see how each of the bonds are trading. But on the lending side, we are seeing a margin stabilization and in some products, some slight increase going forward.
因此,我們可能會看到政府證券方面的保證金減少。當然,這也取決於阿根廷的波動性。他們會觀察每種債券的交易情況。但在貸款方面,我們看到利潤率趨於穩定,某些產品的利潤率未來還會略有增加。
Operator
Operator
Clemente Herrera, Falcom Asset Management.
Clemente Herrera,Falcom 資產管理公司。
How do you see ROE evolving this in the following years? You are well capitalized, so maybe you are seeing more space there.
您認為 ROE 在未來幾年將如何演變?您的資本充足,因此也許您會看到更多的空間。
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro - Chief Financial Officer
I mean for ROE, as I said this year, I think we talked about 12%, 14% in the guidance. We see that to start to go up again for the future years, I mean, '26, '27. Our intention and our target is to continue maybe towards a 20% ROE stable, 20% ROE, maybe 17% next year and 20% the following one. That's a trend we want, but we believe that our -- considering our size, we should be trading or operating at a sustainable 20% ROE.
我的意思是,對於 ROE,正如我今年所說,我認為我們在指導中討論了 12%、14%。我們預計未來幾年,也就是 26、27 年,這個數字會再次上升。我們的目的和目標是繼續實現 ROE 穩定在 20%,明年可能達到 17%,後年達到 20%。這是我們想要的趨勢,但我們認為——考慮到我們的規模,我們應該以可持續的 20% ROE 進行交易或營運。
That should be, of course, something that will go in stages after we finish the integration this year and start capturing all the value from the HSBC acquisition and finish with all the synergies, that would be my -- the evolution of the ROE that we at least are targeting for the future.
當然,這應該是在今年我們完成整合並開始獲取匯豐收購的所有價值並完成所有協同效應之後分階段進行的事情,這將是我——至少是我們未來所瞄準的 ROE 的演變。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The question-and-answer section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Pablo Firvida for the company's final remarks.
謝謝。問答環節到此結束。我們想把發言權交還給 Pablo Firvida 先生,請他發表公司的最後評論。
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Pablo Eduardo Firvida - Investor Relations Officer
Okay. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.
好的。感謝大家參加本次電話會議。如果您還有其他問題,請隨時與我們聯絡。早安.再見。
Operator
Operator
Grupo Financiero Galicia conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.
加利西亞金融集團會議現已結束。我們感謝您的參與並祝福您有個愉快的一天。