Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings release conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to your host, Mr. Pablo Eduardo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations at Grupo Financiero Galicia, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Thank you, Vince. Good morning and welcome to this conference call. I will make a concise introduction and then we will take your questions. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions of the US federal securities laws, and are subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, EMAE, the Argentine economy recorded a 1.9% quarter-over-quarter contraction in seasonally adjusted terms when compared to the third quarter. In year-over-year terms, the economic downturn in 2023 reached approximately 1.6%. During the quarter, the primary deficit reached 1.5% of GDP, and according to the Ministry of Economy, it stood at 2.9% of GDP in 2023. This implied an increase against 2022's 2.4% deficit, explained by primary spending increasing 123%, whereas revenues rose 115.4%. The National Consumer Price Index recorded a 53.3% increase during the quarter and accumulated 211.4% in 2023 from the 94.8% recorded in 2022 and was the highest figure in 30 years.

On the monetary front, the Argentine Central Bank expanded the monetary base by ARS2.78 trillion in the quarter and by ARS4.4 trillion throughout the year, recording an 84.6% increase in 2023. After taking office, the government devalued the exchange rate by 54.2% on December 13th. The foreign exchange rate ended 2023 at ARS808.5 per dollar. The Argentine Central Bank modified its monetary policy instrument, replacing the Leliq rate with the overnight repo interest rate, which was lowered from 126% to 100% and is still the same today. Simultaneously, the minimum rate for term deposits under ARS30 million was also lowered from 133% to 110%. In December, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days stood at 122%, 52 percentage points above the December 2022 average. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS32.7 trillion in December, increasing 20% during the quarter and up 115.5% in the last 12 months. Time deposits in pesos fell 5.7% during the quarter and rose 71.9% in the year. Peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 47.1% during the quarter and 161.5% in the year. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $14.6 billion in December 2023, decreasing 3.4% during the quarter and 7.5% in 2023. During December, peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS15.4 trillion, increasing 31.1% in the quarter and 129.6% when compared to December 2022, while private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $3.5 billion, recording a 9.8% contraction during the quarter on a 0.3% reduction in the year.

Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia, net income for 2023 amounted to ARS336.2 billion, 110% higher than in the previous year, which represented a 3.4% return on average assets and a 17.4% return on average shareholders' equity. The result was mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS282.8 billion from Galicia Asset Management for ARS24.7 billion, from Naranja X for ARS13.7 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS8.4 billion.

Going to the fourth quarter, net income amounted to ARS86.9 billion, 25% higher from the year-ago quarter, mainly due to profits from Banco Galicia for ARS58.9 billion, from Naranja X for ARS15.4 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS4.8 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS3.8 billion. This profit represented a 3.5% annualized return on average assets and a 17% return on average shareholders' equity.

Banco Galicia's net income for the quarter was 7% lower than in the year-ago quarter, mainly due to higher losses from the impact of inflation on the net monetary position and from the income tax, while the operating income increased 151%, primarily due to higher results from government securities and from gold and foreign currency quotation differences related to the devaluation of the peso and to the foreign currency exposure.

Average interest-earning assets reached ARS4.7 trillion, 23% lower than in the same quarter of 2023, mainly due to a 60% decrease of the portfolio of government securities and a 20% reduction in the average balance of loans in pesos. In the same period, its yield increased 35.3 percentage points, reaching 98.5%. Interest-bearing liabilities decreased 25% from December 2022, amounting to ARS3.7 trillion. This decline was mainly due to a 44% decrease in time deposits in pesos. During this period, its costs increased 27.4 percentage points to 72.8%.

Considering net interest income and net income from financial instruments together, they grew 19.9% from the same quarter of 2022. Net fee income increased 13% from December 2022, mainly due to 22% higher profits from credit card fees and a 64% increase from other fees. Gains from gold and FX quotation differences were almost 14 times higher from the year-ago quarter, mainly due to the December devaluation mentioned before. Other operating income increased 42% in the quarter as a result of a 41% increase in other adjustments and interest on miscellaneous receivables as a consequence of the valuation of financial instruments granted as collateral and to a 67% increase in other income.

As regards provision for loan losses, the amount for the quarter was similar to the one recorded in the year-ago quarter, reaching ARS38.3 billion. Personnel expenses were 43% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2022, in line with a 6% increase of staff and of salary increases above inflation, while administrative expenses were 14% higher, due to a 39% increase of taxes. Other operating expenses increased 20% due to a 64% increase of other fee related expenses and to a 14% higher turnover tax. The income tax charge was ARS67.7 billion higher than in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to higher operating results.

The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS2.8 trillion at the end of the quarter, down 18% in the last 12 months, with peso-denominated loans decreasing 27% and dollar-denominated loans down 22%, offset by 90% growth in other financing in dollars. Net exposure to the public sector decreased 10% year-over-year because of lower holdings of Leliqs, partially offset by higher holdings of government securities in pesos at amortized cost. Excluding the exposure to the Central Bank, Leliqs and repurchase agreement transactions, net exposure represented 25% of total assets compared to 15% as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2022.

Deposits reached ARS5.54 trillion, 16% lower than a year before, mainly due to a 61% decrease of time deposits in pesos. The bank's estimated market share of loans to private sector was 10.9%, 89 basis points lower than at the end of the year-ago quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 9.9%, 69 basis points lower than in the same quarter of 2022. The bank's liquid assets represented 91.8% of transaction deposits and 64.1% of total deposits compared to 121.2% and 65.3%, respectively from a year before.

As regards asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loans to total financing ended the quarter at 2.34%, recording a 19 bps deterioration as compared to the 2.15% of the fourth quarter of the prior year. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 142%, down from the 226% recorded a year ago. As of the end of December 2023, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 24.8%, decreasing 84 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2022, while Tier 1 ratio was was 23.3%, down 37 basis points during the same period.

In summary, in a particularly challenging and volatile political and macro environment. Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep asset quality, liquidity and solvency metrics at healthy levels and to sustain a good level of profitability despite of the significant impact of the high inflation of the quarter.

We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have. Thank you.

(Operator Instructions) Brian Flores, Citibank.

Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. Congratulations on the results. A question on the big picture of 2024, when you're thinking about the profitability for the year. If Milei's plan succeeds and inflation is controlled, we have a milder FX devaluation, what in your view should be the key earnings drivers of the quarter?

And also, if I might add on this question, you [previewed] the guidance maybe to a year with maybe high-single digit ROE. Has this, in your view, changed? Many thanks.

Hi, Brian. Well, we are in a transition period, I would say, which after the strong devaluation we had in December, there was an overshooting of prices and inflation in December of 25%, January 20%, February most of the economists are expecting 15%. March, perhaps, will be similar to February due to seasonal issues and tariff increases. But most of the economists have already seen around 9% or one high-digit inflation in April and May, and it's likely that in the second semester, we will be seeing low one-digit monthly inflation.

So our vision is that this trend of decreasing of loans to private sector as a percentage of total assets will be reverted and as soon as perhaps June or July. We have seen a reduction also in terms of total assets when we look at the Central Bank exposure and in terms -- or on the contrary, we have seen an increase in the exposure to government bonds. Between the two now, they represent roughly 42% of total assets. They used to be 47% of total assets six or seven a month ago. And we are a lot more liquid, too.

One thing that is important to understand, seeing the profitability going forward, is not only this change in asset mix, but also we have most of our bonds, not mark-to-market, but valued at cost plus yield. And in the press release in a sentence where we have exposure to the Argentine public sector, we have a note basically stating that we have what we call a shadow. That is the difference between the market value and the book value of our bonds. And this number is significant. It was ARS444 billion. And this will allow us to accrue a significant financial income, and also we could be selling part of these bonds and realizing gains. So many moving parts, but basically we are seeing an ROE for this year something lower than the 2023 figure. So instead of being 17.4% as it was last year ROE, we are seeing something around 13% or 14%. Because still inflation is high, because the economic activity will not be growing for the full year. But we are seeing other good operating trends, and as I said before, mainly in the second half of the year.

Perfect. It's a good year. Thank you.

We currently have no questions coming through. (Operator Instructions)

Well, there are no further questions. So I will hand you back to your host to conclude today's conference. Thank you.

Well, thank you. I don't know if today all the analysts were shy or the numbers were very clear. Of course, thank you for attending this call, and if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us directly. Have a good morning. Thank you.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect. Host, please stay connected on the line. Thank you.