Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Greenbrier Companies Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President and Treasurer. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.

您好，歡迎來到 Greenbrier Companies 2022 財年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）應 Greenbrier 公司的要求，正在錄製此電話會議以供重播。此時，我想將會議轉交給副總裁兼財務主管 Justin Roberts 先生。羅伯茨先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Andrea. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer; and Adrian Downes, Senior Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，安德里亞。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們的第四季度和 2022 財年電話會議。今天，Greenbrier 的首席執行官兼總裁 Lorie Tekorius 加入了我的行列； Brian Comstock，執行副總裁兼首席商務和租賃官；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Adrian Downes。

Following our update on Greenbrier's performance in 2022 and our outlook for fiscal 2023, we will open up the call for questions. In addition to the press release issued this morning, additional financial information and key metrics can be found in a slide presentation posted today on the IR section of our website.

在我們更新了 Greenbrier 2022 年的業績和我們對 2023 財年的展望之後，我們將公開提問。除了今天上午發布的新聞稿外，還可以在今天發佈在我們網站 IR 部分的幻燈片演示中找到其他財務信息和關鍵指標。

As a reminder, matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2023 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier.

提醒一下，今天電話會議上討論的事項包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。在我們今天的討論中，我們將描述一些可能導致 Greenbrier 在 2023 年和超出與 Greenbrier 或代表 Greenbrier 所做的任何前瞻性聲明中表達的內容存在重大差異。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Lorie. Good morning.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Lorie。早上好。

Good morning. Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining us today. Before returning to our results, I want to commend our business units and all our colleagues in production for completing another year of outstanding safety performance.

早上好。謝謝賈斯汀，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。在回到我們的結果之前，我想讚揚我們的業務部門和我們所有的生產同事完成了又一年的出色安全績效。

Our recordable injury rate declined by nearly 16%, and our DART rate was down 17% from 2021. This is the second year in a row with double-digit improvements following steady improvements over the past 3 years. This impressive performance occurred at the same time we increased our global workforce by 35% and during a 50% rise in enterprise-wide production rate. In North America, our production rates increased by 75%.

我們的可記錄傷害率下降了近 16%，我們的 DART 率比 2021 年下降了 17%。這是繼過去 3 年穩步改善之後連續第二年實現兩位數的改善。這一令人印象深刻的業績發生在我們將全球員工人數增加 35% 以及整個企業生產率提高 50% 的同時。在北美，我們的生產率提高了 75%。

Based on this higher production activity and workforce growth, it's obvious why we're proud of our safety record. It demonstrates the importance Greenbrier places on the safety and well-being of our workforce.

基於這種更高的生產活動和勞動力增長，我們為我們的安全記錄感到自豪的原因顯而易見。它表明了 Greenbrier 對我們員工安全和福祉的重視。

Now turning to our business performance. The fourth quarter was Greenbrier's strongest operating quarter of the fiscal year. The growing impact of our leasing platform, including continued strong syndication activity helped drive record quarterly revenue against a volatile macroeconomic backdrop.

現在轉向我們的業務表現。第四季度是 Greenbrier 本財年最強勁的運營季度。我們的租賃平台的影響越來越大，包括持續強勁的銀團活動，幫助在動蕩的宏觀經濟背景下推動創紀錄的季度收入。

Our performance this quarter highlights the value of our integrated business model as well as the strength of our leadership team. Aggregate gross margins and manufacturing margins continue to trend higher as we realize operational efficiencies and absorbed the dilutive impact of pass-throughs tied to input cost escalation.

我們本季度的業績凸顯了我們綜合業務模式的價值以及我們領導團隊的實力。隨著我們實現運營效率並吸收與投入成本上升相關的轉嫁效應的稀釋影響，總毛利率和製造利潤率繼續呈上升趨勢。

Our North American manufacturing business navigated a massive boost in output during fiscal 2022. In a traditional upcycle, such a significant increase in hiring and production rates would be daunting in a year of emerging COVID variance, ongoing supply chain disruptions and railway congestion, the ramp navigated by our manufacturing team is historic and heroic.

我們的北美製造業務在 2022 財年實現了產量的大幅增長。在傳統的上升週期中，在新出現的 COVID 變化、持續的供應鏈中斷和鐵路擁堵的一年中，如此顯著的招聘和生產率增長將是令人生畏的，斜坡由我們的製造團隊導航是歷史性的和英勇的。

I extend my thanks and the thanks of our Board and leadership team to all of our colleagues working on Greenbrier production lines around the world. And as we look across the globe, we know the economy faces headwinds from the Russian invasion of Ukraine with winter approaching, escalating energy prices together with record inflation levels and rising interest rates present an unprecedented set of conditions.

我以及我們的董事會和領導團隊向全球所有在 Greenbrier 生產線上工作的同事表示感謝。當我們放眼全球時，我們知道隨著冬季臨近，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，經濟面臨逆風，能源價格不斷上漲，通貨膨脹率創歷史新高，利率上升構成了一系列前所未有的條件。

Economic forecasts predict a recession in Europe. We are focused on managing our operations on the continent through current and future challenges. We're realistic and responsive to the economic conditions in Europe, yet there's still a sense of relative optimism in the rail freight sector. Traffic volumes are holding up well and rail freight is playing an increasingly important role in the transportation of critical goods in response to the invasion of Ukraine.

經濟預測預測歐洲經濟衰退。我們專注於通過當前和未來的挑戰來管理我們在非洲大陸的業務。我們是現實的，對歐洲的經濟狀況反應迅速，但鐵路貨運行業仍然存在相對樂觀的情緒。交通量保持良好，鐵路貨運在應對烏克蘭入侵的關鍵貨物運輸中發揮著越來越重要的作用。

Europe's wagon supply chain has largely recovered from the disruption caused by the war, albeit with higher prices in most areas. Railcar delivery projections for the next few years are strong and back to prewar levels. Our work with our customers has brought more certainty to our production costs and our sales pipeline and backlog are growing again as new order inquiries remain stable.

歐洲的貨車供應鏈已基本從戰爭造成的中斷中恢復過來，儘管大部分地區的價格有所上漲。未來幾年的軌道車交付預測很強勁，並回到戰前水平。我們與客戶的合作為我們的生產成本帶來了更多確定性，並且隨著新訂單查詢保持穩定，我們的銷售渠道和積壓訂單再次增加。

In our maintenance service business, we continue to gain momentum demonstrated by increased margin. The action plan to increase efficiencies in our repair facilities, which included increasing head count in certain U.S. locations is beginning to improve results. We're cautiously optimistic about the moderating U.S. economy and expect recent economic volatility to ebb in calendar 2023, as the Federal Reserve smooths its pace of additional interest rate hikes.

在我們的維護服務業務中，我們繼續獲得利潤增長所證明的勢頭。提高我們維修設施效率的行動計劃（包括增加美國某些地點的員工人數）正在開始改善結果。我們對放緩的美國經濟持謹慎樂觀態度，並預計隨著美聯儲放慢進一步加息的步伐，近期的經濟波動將在 2023 年減弱。

Sustained monetary tightening may impact employment and economic growth, but we remain optimistic that the rail equipment sector can withstand a gradual cooling of the economy. Supply chain issues have improved but nowhere near results. Continuing challenges include the impact of ongoing congestion on the rail lines, a shortage of available labor in certain geographies and limited access to certain components. We expect these headwinds to diminish during the second half of our fiscal year.

持續的貨幣緊縮可能會影響就業和經濟增長，但我們仍然樂觀地認為鐵路設備行業能夠承受經濟逐漸降溫。供應鏈問題有所改善，但遠未取得成果。持續的挑戰包括鐵路線持續擁堵的影響、某些地區可用勞動力短缺以及某些組件的使用受限。我們預計這些不利因素將在本財年下半年減弱。

Overall, commodity prices, excluding energy, have declined from recent peak levels, which in the main, should be favorable for rail freight traffic in the months ahead. As we enter the first quarter of our new fiscal year, we're encouraged by the momentum in our business.

總體而言，不包括能源在內的大宗商品價格已從近期高位回落，這在未來幾個月內應該主要有利於鐵路貨運量。當我們進入新財政年度的第一季度時，我們的業務發展勢頭令我們感到鼓舞。

As a team, we're focused on a few key initiatives that are rooted in our core values of quality, customer service and respect for people. These initiatives are focused on continuing our manufacturing excellence, expanding our services business to reduce the cyclicality of Greenbrier's financial results, ongoing investment and development of our workforce, continuing our commitment to ESG and ongoing policy advocacy to ensure our perspective on issues is understood and addressed.

作為一個團隊，我們專注於一些植根於我們質量、客戶服務和尊重他人的核心價值觀的關鍵舉措。這些舉措的重點是繼續我們的卓越製造，擴大我們的服務業務以減少 Greenbrier 財務業績的周期性，持續投資和發展我們的員工隊伍，繼續我們對 ESG 的承諾和持續的政策宣傳，以確保我們對問題的看法得到理解和解決.

I plan to discuss these initiatives and our business outlook in greater detail at Greenbrier's first Investor Day scheduled for early February. We look forward to sharing more details on this important event soon. Greenbrier's Board and leadership team balanced capital deployment between organic growth opportunities, short-term, high-return internal projects and returning capital to shareholders.

我計劃在定於 2 月初舉行的 Greenbrier 首屆投資者日上更詳細地討論這些舉措和我們的業務前景。我們期待盡快分享有關這一重要事件的更多細節。 Greenbrier 的董事會和領導團隊在有機增長機會、短期、高回報內部項目和向股東返還資本之間平衡了資本配置。

For the last few years, our primary focus has been on safeguarding the business through liquidity preservation until economic stability normalizes. As a result of recent stock market volatility and to drive long-term shareholder value, we believe there may be a near-term opportunity to repurchase shares through our existing share repurchase authority at what we perceive are discounted levels.

在過去的幾年裡，我們的主要重點是通過流動性保護來保護業務，直到經濟穩定恢復正常。由於近期股市波動並推動長期股東價值，我們認為近期可能有機會通過我們現有的股票回購授權以我們認為的折扣水平回購股票。

Share repurchase activity supplements the growth initiatives I highlighted and demonstrates our continued balance sheet strength, cash-generating abilities and focus on returning value to shareholders. When I consider the value creation opportunities for Greenbrier, I see a very attractive offering, a stable and reliable dividend, assets that are strong cash generators, a healthy business with robust market share and a growing leasing and services platform.

股票回購活動補充了我強調的增長計劃，並展示了我們持續的資產負債表實力、現金產生能力以及對為股東回報價值的關注。當我考慮 Greenbrier 的價值創造機會時，我看到了非常有吸引力的產品、穩定可靠的股息、可產生強大現金的資產、具有強勁市場份額的健康業務以及不斷增長的租賃和服務平台。

As we enter fiscal 2023, I'm highly confident in our team's ability to seize the opportunities before us and to navigate unforeseeable challenges. And now I'll turn it over to Brian to discuss the railcar demand environment and our leasing activity.

隨著我們進入 2023 財年，我對我們團隊抓住擺在我們面前的機遇和應對不可預見的挑戰的能力充滿信心。現在我將把它交給布賴恩來討論軌道車需求環境和我們的租賃活動。

Thanks, Laurie, and good morning, everyone. In Q4, Greenbrier secured new railcar orders of nearly 4,800 units valued at $620 million. We delivered 5,800 units in the quarter. For the fiscal year, we received global orders of 24,600 units or $2.9 billion, resulting in a book-to-bill just north of 1.2x. Our diversified backlog currently stands at nearly 30,000 units with a total value of $3.5 billion.

謝謝，勞裡，大家早上好。第四季度，Greenbrier 獲得了近 4,800 輛價值 6.2 億美元的新軌道車訂單。我們在本季度交付了 5,800 台。在本財年，我們收到了 24,600 台或 29 億美元的全球訂單，導致訂單出貨率略高於 1.2 倍。我們的多元化積壓訂單目前有近 30,000 個單位，總價值達 35 億美元。

As a reminder, our new railcar backlog does not include 2,300 units by more than 170 million that are part of Greenbrier's railcar refurbishment program. Our refurbishment program is another example of why freight rail is one of the most environmentally friendly mode of surface transport. Despite macroeconomic concerns, Greenbrier's order pipeline remains strong, and we continue to see a healthy railcar orders from all categories of customers.

提醒一下，我們新的軌道車積壓訂單不包括 2,300 個單位乘以超過 1.7 億，這是 Greenbrier 的軌道車翻新計劃的一部分。我們的翻新計劃是貨運鐵路為何是最環保的地面運輸方式之一的另一個例子。儘管存在宏觀經濟問題，但 Greenbrier 的訂單渠道依然強勁，我們繼續看到來自所有類別客戶的健康軌道車訂單。

Also, there is the emerging strength of our leasing business. Total railcars and storage have been at cyclical low for the past several months, indicating high fleet utilization. Of the 276,000 railcars in storage, over 50% have been idled for over 1 year, suggesting that a large portion of the fleet in storage are retirement candidates.

此外，我們的租賃業務正在崛起。過去幾個月，軌道車和存儲總量一直處於週期性低位，表明車隊利用率很高。在 276,000 輛入庫的軌道車中，超過 50% 已閒置超過 1 年，這表明入庫的車隊中有很大一部分是退休候選者。

We expect industry utilization to remain strong into 2023 as scrap cars are expected to exceed new railcar deliveries for the third consecutive year, causing the North American fleet to shrink. The combination of a shrinking fleet and decreased railcars and storage increases railcar utilization and adds pressure on fleet availability in North America. These dynamics have contributed to a continued strong North American leasing market for new originations and lease renewals.

我們預計到 2023 年行業利用率將保持強勁，因為報廢車廂的交付量預計將連續第三年超過新的軌道車廂交付量，導致北美車隊縮減。車隊不斷縮減以及軌道車和存儲空間的減少共同提高了軌道車的利用率，並增加了北美車隊可用性的壓力。這些動態促成了北美租賃市場持續強勁的新租賃和續租。

And the significant expansion of our lease fleet over the last 18 months has proven to be well timed. Our leasing team continues to perform ahead of expectations as we scale this business with an owned fleet totaling 12,200 railcars at the end of the fiscal year. This represents a 40% year-over-year increase in the size of our own fleet.

事實證明，過去 18 個月我們租賃車隊的顯著擴張恰逢其時。我們的租賃團隊的表現繼續超出預期，因為我們在本財年末擁有總計 12,200 輛軌道車的自有車隊來擴展這項業務。這意味著我們自己的機隊規模同比增長了 40%。

Lease pricing on renewals has increased into the double digits in fiscal 2022, while our fleet utilization remained strong at just over 98%. We are very focused on protecting our economics through our lease agreements and by hedging our debt balances to factor for interest rates.

到 2022 財年，續約的租賃價格已上漲至兩位數，而我們的機隊利用率仍保持強勁，略高於 98%。我們非常專注於通過我們的租賃協議保護我們的經濟，並通過對沖我們的債務餘額以考慮利率。

During the quarter, we funded $75 million of our $150 million term loan upsize and fixed it via an interest rate swap. All leasing debt is nonrecourse and has a remaining term of just under 6 years on average. Also, during the quarter, we finalized a renewal of our leasing warehouse debt facility to extend the borrowing term from 3 years while reducing pricing levels. Syndication activity in Q4 totaled 1,300 units capping a very busy fiscal year.

在本季度，我們為 1.5 億美元的定期貸款擴大規模中的 7500 萬美元提供了資金，並通過利率掉期對其進行了固定。所有租賃債務都是無追索權的，平均剩餘期限不到 6 年。此外，在本季度，我們完成了租賃倉庫債務融資的續期，將藉款期限從 3 年延長，同時降低定價水平。第四季度的銀團活動總計 1,300 個單位，結束了非常繁忙的財政年度。

As a reminder, the allocation of syndication revenue moved from manufacturing to our Leasing and Management Services segment during fiscal 2022 in order to provide greater transparency on the positive impact of our enhanced leasing strategy in our financial reporting. Our end goal remains to grow Greenbrier's consolidated margin.

提醒一下，在 2022 財年，銀團收入的分配從製造業轉移到我們的租賃和管理服務部門，以便在我們的財務報告中提高我們增強的租賃戰略的積極影響的透明度。我們的最終目標仍然是增加 Greenbrier 的綜合利潤率。

Greenbrier's management team is experienced and our business model is flexible. We are energized and optimistic about our ability to serve our customers and to perform well in our markets. This leaves Greenbrier well positioned to successfully navigate these next stages of recovery from the pandemic and the prevailing forces at work in the economy at any particular time.

Greenbrier 的管理團隊經驗豐富，我們的業務模式靈活。我們對我們服務客戶和在市場上表現良好的能力充滿活力和樂觀。這使 Greenbrier 處於有利地位，可以成功應對從大流行病中恢復的下一階段以及在任何特定時間在經濟中發揮作用的主要力量。

Adrian will now speak to the highlights in the fourth quarter.

阿德里安現在將談到第四節的亮點。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. As a reminder, quarterly and full year financial information is available in the press release and supplemental slides on our website.

謝謝你，布賴恩，大家早上好。提醒一下，我們網站上的新聞稿和補充幻燈片中提供了季度和全年財務信息。

Greenbrier's Q4 performance represented the strongest quarter of our fiscal 2022 year as a result of increased deliveries, strong syndication activity and improved operating efficiencies. I will speak to a few highlights from the quarter and full year and provide a general overview of our fiscal 2023 guidance. Notable highlights for the fourth quarter include record quarterly revenue of $950.7 million, an increase of nearly 20% from Q3.

Greenbrier 的第四季度業績代表了我們 2022 財年最強勁的季度，這是由於交付量增加、辛迪加活動強勁和運營效率提高所致。我將介紹本季度和全年的一些亮點，並概述我們 2023 財年的指導方針。第四季度的顯著亮點包括創紀錄的季度收入 9.507 億美元，比第三季度增長近 20%。

Aggregate gross margins of 13.4% reflect improving operating efficiencies, higher deliveries and strong syndication activity in manufacturing and leasing and management services. Selling and administrative expense of $68.8 million is higher sequentially, reflecting increased employee-related costs and consulting expenses, the timing of incentive compensation trends with the cadence of earnings.

13.4% 的總毛利率反映出運營效率的提高、交付量的增加以及製造、租賃和管理服務領域的強勁聯合活動。銷售和管理費用為 6880 萬美元，環比增加，反映了員工相關成本和諮詢費用的增加，以及激勵薪酬趨勢與盈利節奏的時間安排。

Interest expense of about $18 million as a result of higher borrowings, increases in interest rates and our floating rate revolving facilities and foreign exchange expense. Forming [ph 0:14:45] tax rate of 35.1% was higher sequentially due to the mix of foreign and domestic pretax earnings and discrete items. We also recognized about $1.3 million of those costs, specifically related to COVID-19 employee and facility safety.

由於借款增加、利率上升以及我們的浮動利率循環便利和外匯費用，利息費用約為 1800 萬美元。由於國內外稅前收入和離散項目的混合，形成 [ph 0:14:45] 35.1% 的稅率比上一季度更高。我們還確認了其中約 130 萬美元的成本，特別是與 COVID-19 員工和設施安全相關的成本。

Net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $20 million generated diluted EPS of $0.60 per share. EBITDA of $88.8 million or 9.3% of revenue. Notable highlights for the full year include deliveries of 19,900 units, an increase of over 50% from the prior year. Net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $47 million or $1.40 per diluted share on revenue of nearly $3 billion.

歸屬於 Greenbrier 的 2000 萬美元淨收益產生每股 0.60 美元的攤薄每股收益。 EBITDA 為 8880 萬美元，佔收入的 9.3%。全年的顯著亮點包括交付 19,900 台，比上年增長 50% 以上。歸屬於 Greenbrier 的淨收益為 4700 萬美元或每股攤薄收益 1.40 美元，收入近 30 億美元。

Net earnings attributable to Greenbrier grew by 45% in 2022. EBITDA was $231 million or 7.8% of revenue. EBITDA increased by nearly 60% versus the prior year. Greenbrier's liquidity increased to $690 million by the end of Q4, consisting of cash of $543 million and available borrowings of $147 million. We generated nearly $180 million of operating cash flow in the quarter.

2022 年歸屬於 Greenbrier 的淨收益增長了 45%。EBITDA 為 2.31 億美元，佔收入的 7.8%。 EBITDA 與上一年相比增長了近 60%。到第四季度末，Greenbrier 的流動資金增加到 6.9 億美元，包括現金 5.43 億美元和可用借款 1.47 億美元。我們在本季度產生了近 1.8 億美元的運營現金流。

The increase to liquidity and operating cash flow reflected better operating results and improvements to working capital and a receipt of $76 million of the tax refunds associated with the CARES Act. The remaining tax refund of roughly $30 million is anticipated to be collected in fiscal 2023 and is in addition to Greenbrier's available cash and borrowing capacity. We have no significant debt maturities until 2026 because of the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet, we continue to be well-positioned to navigate market dynamics.

流動資金和經營現金流的增加反映了更好的經營業績和營運資金的改善，以及收到與 CARES 法案相關的 7600 萬美元的退稅。剩餘的約 3000 萬美元退稅預計將在 2023 財年收取，這是對 Greenbrier 可用現金和借貸能力的補充。由於我們資產負債表的實力和靈活性，我們在 2026 年之前沒有重大債務到期日，我們將繼續處於有利地位以駕馭市場動態。

In fiscal 2023, we expect liquidity will continue to grow due to higher levels of cash from improved operating results, improved working capital efficiency and increased borrowing capacity resulting from more railcars placed on our balance sheet. On October 21, Greenbrier's Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.27 per share, our 34th consecutive dividend.

在 2023 財年，我們預計流動性將繼續增長，原因是經營業績改善帶來的現金水平更高、營運資本效率提高以及我們資產負債表上的軌道車數量增加導致借貸能力增加。 10 月 21 日，Greenbrier 董事會宣布派發每股 0.27 美元的股息，這是我們連續第 34 次派發股息。

Based on yesterday's closing price, our annual dividend represents a yield of approximately 3.9%. Since reinstating the dividend in 2014, Greenbrier has returned over $395 million of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our Board of Directors remains committed to a balanced deployment of capital designed to protect the business and simultaneously create long-term shareholder value.

根據昨天的收盤價，我們的年度股息收益率約為 3.9%。自 2014 年恢復派息以來，Greenbrier 已通過派息和股票回購向股東返還超過 3.95 億美元的資本。我們的董事會仍然致力於均衡配置資本，旨在保護業務並同時創造長期股東價值。

As Lorie mentioned earlier, we believe there are near-term opportunities to repurchase shares at while we perceive our discounted levels. Greenbrier has $100 million authorized under our share repurchase program, and we will use this capacity opportunistically based on fluctuations in the price of Greenbrier shares and within the framework of our broader capital allocation plan.

正如 Lorie 之前提到的，我們認為在我們認為我們的折扣水平時，近期有機會回購股票。 Greenbrier 根據我們的股票回購計劃獲得了 1 億美元的授權，我們將根據 Greenbrier 股票價格的波動並在我們更廣泛的資本配置計劃的框架內機會主義地使用這一能力。

Shifting focus to our guidance and outlook. Based on current business trends and production schedules, we expect Greenberg's fiscal 2023 outlook to reflect the following: deliveries of 22,000 to 24,000 units, which includes approximately 1,000 units from Greenbrier-Maxion in Brazil. Revenues between $3.2 billion and $3.6 billion. Selling and administrative expenses are expected to be approximately $220 million to $230 million.

將重點轉移到我們的指導和展望上。根據當前的業務趨勢和生產計劃，我們預計 Greenberg 的 2023 財年展望將反映以下情況：交付量為 22,000 至 24,000 台，其中包括來自巴西 Greenbrier-Maxion 的約 1,000 台。收入在 32 億美元到 36 億美元之間。銷售和管理費用預計約為 2.2 億美元至 2.3 億美元。

Gross capital expenditures of approximately $240 million in leasing and management services, $80 million in manufacturing and $10 million in maintenance services. Proceeds of equipment sales are expected to be approximately $100 million. We expect to build and capitalize into the lease fleet approximately 2,000 units in 2023. These units are firm orders from leasing customers and are included in backlog, but are not part of our delivery guidance.

租賃和管理服務的資本支出總額約為 2.4 億美元，製造業支出為 8000 萬美元，維護服務支出為 1000 萬美元。設備銷售收益預計約為 1 億美元。我們預計到 2023 年將建造和利用約 2,000 台租賃機隊。這些機台是租賃客戶的確定訂單，包括在積壓訂單中，但不屬於我們的交付指南的一部分。

As a reminder, we consider a railcar delivered when it leads Greenbrier's balance sheet and is owned by an external third party. We expect full year consolidated margins to be in the low double digits. Our business units and our colleagues, throughout Greenbrier have achieved many accomplishments, particularly during a year marked with unforeseen challenges.

提醒一下，我們認為當軌道車領先 Greenbrier 的資產負債表並由外部第三方擁有時交付。我們預計全年綜合利潤率將處於較低的兩位數。我們的業務部門和我們的同事在整個 Greenbrier 取得了許多成就，尤其是在充滿不可預見挑戰的一年中。

Our experience management has a track record of success in identifying and seizing opportunities while navigating unexpected events. Greenbrier is supported by a robust backlog, which provides strong earnings visibility. Our liquidity and balance sheet strength to protect our business during volatile times and positions us to be opportunistic.

我們的經驗管理在應對意外事件的同時，在識別和抓住機會方面有著成功的記錄。 Greenbrier 得到大量積壓訂單的支持，這提供了強大的盈利可見性。我們的流動性和資產負債表實力可以在動盪時期保護我們的業務，並使我們處於機會主義的位置。

As we turn the page to the next fiscal year, we are well positioned to enhance shareholder value into fiscal 2023. And now we will open it up for questions. Andrea?

當我們翻到下一個財政年度時，我們已準備好在 2023 財年提高股東價值。現在我們將公開提問。安德里亞？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from Justin Long of Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

Maybe to start with the comment you just made Adrian on margin expectations in fiscal '23. I believe you said low double-digit gross margins. If I look at what you reported this quarter, you were close to 13.5%. So can you give a little bit more color on the full year outlook and why it might imply something below where we're exiting this fiscal year?

也許從你剛剛對 Adrian 發表的關於 23 財年利潤率預期的評論開始。我相信你說的是兩位數的低毛利率。如果我看一下你們本季度的報告，你們接近 13.5%。那麼，您能否對全年前景給出更多的顏色，以及為什麼它可能暗示我們在本財年退出的水平以下？

Yes, we had a very strong Q4, and there's still some uncertainty heading into next year with supply chain issues with the war. So we would see margins improving in the back half of next year. And typically, our business is back half weighted in terms of our earnings and volume.

是的，我們有一個非常強勁的第四季度，並且由於戰爭的供應鏈問題，明年仍然存在一些不確定性。因此，我們將在明年下半年看到利潤率有所提高。通常，我們的業務在我們的收入和數量方面是後半加權的。

And Justin, this is Justin. The one thing I would say is I think bear in mind that it takes a lot to move margin percentage on a full year basis. So we do expect to see strong performance, and we don't believe that being in the teens is out of the question as we head towards the back half of the year, but it's not going to be necessarily a full 12 months just based on what we see at this point.

賈斯汀，這是賈斯汀。我要說的一件事是我認為要記住，在全年的基礎上移動保證金百分比需要很多。因此，我們確實希望看到強勁的表現，並且我們認為在我們邁向今年下半年時進入十幾歲並不是不可能的，但僅僅基於以下情況不一定是整整 12 個月我們現在看到的。

Got it. And maybe similarly, I was wondering if you could give any color on the cadence of production and earnings over the course of the year? And then just one other thing I wanted to clarify on the revenue guidance. Does that include the 2,000 units that you're expecting to build for the lease fleet or exclude that?

知道了。也許類似地，我想知道你是否可以對一年中的生產和收入節奏給出任何顏色？然後我想就收入指導澄清另一件事。這是否包括您期望為租賃車隊建造的 2,000 台設備或不包括在內？

It excludes that. So we don't recognize revenue on that because those assets stay on our balance sheet.

它排除了這一點。所以我們不承認收入，因為這些資產留在我們的資產負債表上。

But I would add, they're generating revenue through our leasing operations. So it's just not the manufacturing revenue and gross margin, but those assets are deployed and generating lease returns.

但我要補充一點，他們通過我們的租賃業務創收。因此，這不僅僅是製造收入和毛利率，而是這些資產已部署並產生租賃回報。

And then on the cadence of activity, we do see about kind of a 40% to 60% split first half, second half and probably maybe a 45-55 actual delivery split given that some of our back half production is more heavily weighted towards syndication. So this is a matter of we're building more cars through our lease model. They're going on to the balance sheet in Q1 and Q2, and then we'll be syndicating a strong volume of that in Q3 and Q4.

然後在活動節奏上，我們確實看到上半年、下半年大約有 40% 到 60% 的分配，考慮到我們的一些後半部分生產更傾向於聯合，實際交付可能有 45-55 的分配.所以這是我們通過租賃模式製造更多汽車的問題。他們將在第一季度和第二季度進入資產負債表，然後我們將在第三季度和第四季度聯合大量的資產負債表。

Got it. And that 40% to 60% was an earnings-related comment?

知道了。那 40% 到 60% 是與收益相關的評論？

Yes.

是的。

The next question comes from Matt Elkott of Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Elkott。

So your backlog ASP is the highest you've ever had. It's also up 11% from a year ago. Is this mainly the pass-through of higher commodity prices or is there also like a mix effect? And what I'm trying to gauge, I guess, is how those core pricing factor in? Is it possible to gauge if it's a positive or a negative? I know it might be a bit more complicated than that. But just any color on the ASP at the end of fiscal 2022 would be great.

因此，您的積壓 ASP 是您曾經擁有的最高的。它也比一年前增長了 11%。這主要是大宗商品價格上漲的傳遞效應還是混合效應？我想我想衡量的是這些核心定價因素如何影響？是否可以判斷它是正面的還是負面的？我知道它可能比那更複雜一點。但 2022 財年末 ASP 上的任何顏色都會很棒。

Yes. Definitely, Matt. I'll start, and then Brian will actually speak from his knowledge and experience. But I would say that definitely, there is some escalation of pass-through and materials and things like that embedded in that pricing, although we do have a profitable mix that we are building in there. It is a little more weighted towards general freight, but we have shown a tendency to be able to build those types of cars profitably, especially the more niche products like automotive and boxcars. But I would also say, I think, and Brian, please step in about core pricing, but it's definitely been improving throughout the year.

是的。當然，馬特。我將開始，然後 Brian 將根據他的知識和經驗實際發言。但我肯定會說，雖然我們確實有一個有利可圖的組合，但我們正在那裡建立一個有利可圖的組合。它更側重於一般貨運，但我們已經顯示出能夠盈利地製造這些類型的汽車的趨勢，尤其是汽車和棚車等更小眾的產品。但我還要說，我認為，Brian，請介入核心定價，但它在全年肯定都在改善。

Yes. Core pricing has improved. I think you hinted that. It's partially mix, partially pass-throughs. There's less tank cars being produced these days, a lot more general freight cars. But as Justin points out, a lot of the general freight cars are everything from coil steel to wood chips, DDGs, grain, a number of different things, and some of those are very profitable assets as well. So it's -- the ASP is more a product of the mix. And then certainly, the pass-through has some impact as well.

是的。核心定價有所改善。我想你暗示過。它部分混合，部分傳遞。現在生產的油罐車越來越少，普通貨車越來越多。但正如賈斯汀指出的那樣，很多普通貨車都是從鋼捲到木屑、DDG、穀物和許多不同的東西，其中一些也是非常有利可圖的資產。所以它 - ASP 更像是混合的產物。當然，傳遞也有一些影響。

So Brian and Justin, I think to Justin's comment about it's still a more freight heavy mix. But is it more freight and heavy than last year or less? I mean, just relative to last year, is the mix more towards freight or tank relative to 2021 – 2022?

所以布萊恩和賈斯汀，我認為賈斯汀的評論仍然是一個更重的貨運組合。但是運費和重量是比去年多了還是少了？我的意思是，僅與去年相比，與 2021 年至 2022 年相比，貨運或油罐車的組合更多嗎？

It's a good question, Matt. It's definitely more heavily weighted towards freight car going into 2023.

這是個好問題，馬特。進入 2023 年，貨車的權重肯定更大。

And then your managed fleet declined a bit, I think, down 3% from last quarter. Is there anything meaningful behind that?

然後你的管理機隊有所下降，我認為，比上一季度下降了 3%。這背後有什麼意義嗎？

I think it's more a matter of occasionally, we do…

我認為這更像是偶爾的問題，我們確實......

Transition.

過渡。

…transition away from certain types of customers and sometimes the overall product isn't necessarily the best fit, but we still are excited about that business and do feel that it's a good long-term value add for Greenbrier.

...從某些類型的客戶過渡，有時整體產品不一定是最合適的，但我們仍然對這項業務感到興奮，並且確實認為這對 Greenbrier 來說是一個很好的長期增值。

And then just on the general demand environment, we're hearing about tightness in multiple types of freight cars and even shortages in some kind. Can you just talk maybe about the different types of freight cars and where you're seeing the biggest tightness and the highest demand?

然後就一般需求環境而言，我們聽說多種類型的貨車供應緊張，甚至某種貨車短缺。你能談談不同類型的貨車，以及你看到最緊張和需求最高的地方嗎？

Yes, it's Brian again. We're seeing tightness really across all sectors. One of the big phenomena is going on right now, of course, the low river levels in the Mississippi River, which is putting a lot of strain on grain type of assets. But it's really broad-based across all groups. I'd say probably the area where it's still not as robust as it has been in the years is on the tank side. But that's really because we don't have any big catalyst like a big ethanol build-out or a crude-by-rail build-out, you're more servicing kind of the general market at this stage with chemicals and upstream and downstream products. But it truly is and truly remains very broad-based across multiple commodities.

是的，又是布賴恩。我們確實看到所有部門都在緊張。當然，目前正在發生的一個大現像是密西西比河的低水位，這給糧食類資產帶來了很大壓力。但它在所有群體中確實具有廣泛的基礎。我想說的是，它仍然不像過去幾年那樣強大的區域可能是在坦克方面。但這真的是因為我們沒有任何大的催化劑，比如大規模的乙醇擴建或原油鐵路擴建，在這個階段你更多地為一般市場提供化學品和上下游產品服務.但它確實是並且確實仍然非常廣泛地涵蓋多種商品。

Brian, do you get the sense that this -- the tightness, the shortage in certain types of cars is going to be alleviated before it starts affecting the rail network in a negative way?

布賴恩，你是否感覺到這種情況 - 在它開始以負面方式影響鐵路網絡之前，某些類型的汽車的緊張和短缺將會得到緩解？

Yes, I don't think so. If I understand your question correctly, no.

是的，我不這麼認為。如果我正確理解你的問題，沒有。

And just maybe one final question to Lorie. Do you still feel the same about share repurchases after today’s call?

也許還有最後一個問題要問 Lorie。在今天的電話會議之後，您對股票回購是否還有同樣的看法？

We consider just canceling today's call, actually.

實際上，我們考慮只是取消今天的電話會議。

I would have thought you would have scratched off that comment, but... Yes.

我原以為您會刪除該評論，但是...是的。

Well, I think in today's volatile market, it's important to reinforce that our Board of Directors and the leadership team thinks about how we deploy capital. And just a reminder that we do have authorization to repurchase shares if we feel like it's a good use of our resources.

好吧，我認為在當今動蕩的市場中，重要的是要強調我們的董事會和領導團隊考慮我們如何部署資本。提醒一下，如果我們覺得這是對我們資源的良好利用，我們確實有權回購股票。

The next question comes from Bascome Majors of Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

If I look at the delivery guide of, call it, 23,000 at the midpoint, and I add the 2,000 that you're planning to build for your own lease fleet. Can you share -- I mean you talked about 1,000 in Europe -- I'm sorry, 1,000 in Brazil. Can you share what the Europe assumption is in there roughly? And kind of walk us to what you're assuming that you'll build in North America this year?

如果我查看交付指南，在中點稱它為 23,000，然後添加您計劃為自己的租賃車隊建造的 2,000。你能分享一下——我的意思是你在歐洲談到了 1,000 個——對不起，在巴西有 1,000 個。你能大致分享一下歐洲的假設嗎？並帶我們了解您假設今年將在北美建造的東西？

Yes. So I would say that Europe is around kind of in that kind of 3,500 range, kind of give or take, but that's what we're seeing at this point with 1,000 in Brazil. You could say kind of we're heading towards about 20,000 cars being delivered out of North America, and that would imply about 22,000 cars are being filled.

是的。所以我想說歐洲大約在 3,500 的範圍內，有點讓步，但這就是我們目前在巴西看到的 1,000。你可以說我們正朝著從北美交付約 20,000 輛汽車的方向前進，這意味著約有 22,000 輛汽車正在裝滿。

Okay. And is there a share gain assumption in there or just thinking about your normal kind of 40%, give or take, percent market share, I mean, that would imply a North American industry build of somewhere in the 50,000, 55,000 range, which I think is a bit higher than most people are expecting. Can you walk us through kind of how to reconcile those two?

好的。那裡是否有一個份額增加假設，或者只是考慮你正常的 40%，給予或接受，百分比市場份額，我的意思是，這意味著北美工業建立在 50,000、55,000 範圍內的某個地方，我認為比大多數人預期的要高一些。你能告訴我們如何調和這兩者嗎？

Well, I think we would say that our delivery guidance is based off of our backlog and our production schedules. And we don't have any explicit market share assumptions baked in or any gains. It's more just a matter of this is the way our production schedules have laid out. This is what we see for the year. And we are pretty robustly booked in Europe and North America. We do have a little more open space in Brazil at this point. We don't necessarily say that we're seeing -- going to expect a much railcar build north of 50 in 2023.

好吧，我想我們會說我們的交付指導是基於我們的積壓工作和我們的生產計劃。而且我們沒有任何明確的市場份額假設或任何收益。更重要的是我們的生產計劃是如何安排的。這就是我們今年所看到的。我們在歐洲和北美的預訂量非常大。在這一點上，我們在巴西確實有更多的開放空間。我們不一定說我們正在看到——預計 2023 年將有超過 50 輛的軌道車建造。

But bear in mind, 2022 and 2023 do have a pretty substantial increases and delivery expectations for North America. So again, it just comes back to -- these are the orders we have and the orders we've been able to take and it's helpful to have a 30,000 car backlog.

但請記住，2022 年和 2023 年北美確實有相當可觀的增長和交付預期。所以，它又回到了——這些是我們擁有的訂單和我們能夠接受的訂單，有 30,000 輛汽車積壓是有幫助的。

I was going to say that is proof the point of why we continue to say that having the backlog we have provides us great visibility. I think we're actually booking some production now into calendar 2024, and we're feeling as good as you can feel from a manufacturing perspective, having a lot of the ramp behind us. So that gives us confidence as we look across our production lines.

我想說的是，這證明了為什麼我們繼續說我們擁有的積壓工作為我們提供了很好的知名度。我認為我們現在實際上正在預訂 2024 年的一些生產，從製造的角度來看，我們感覺很好，我們身後有很多坡道。因此，當我們審視我們的生產線時，這給了我們信心。

On the -- to the ramp, that leads into my next question. Can you talk about where you are on labor or any other investments to get to the run rate that gets you to where you need to be to hit the guidance that you've laid out there? Just curious if we're 80%, 90% of the way there or even closer.

在 - 斜坡上，這導致我的下一個問題。你能談談你在勞動或任何其他投資上的位置，以達到使你達到你需要到達的地方以達到你在那裡制定的指導的運行率嗎？只是好奇我們是否已經完成了 80%、90% 甚至更近。

I would say that we are fairly close there. I mean we are not immune to the challenges that are being faced by a number of companies across the United States, in particular, with attracting and retaining a skilled workforce, more so at our U.S. facilities. We're very fortunate in our facilities in Mexico that we have good workforce.

我會說我們在那里相當接近。我的意思是，我們不能倖免於美國許多公司所面臨的挑戰，特別是在吸引和留住熟練勞動力方面，尤其是在我們的美國工廠。我們在墨西哥的工廠非常幸運，我們擁有優秀的員工隊伍。

We've got good relations with our workforce so that as the business activity fluctuates, we're able to bring back that solid workforce and do it in a way that we keep our workforce safe, we continue to build quality railcars for our customers.

我們與我們的員工建立了良好的關係，因此隨著業務活動的波動，我們能夠帶回堅實的員工隊伍，並以確保員工安全的方式做到這一點，我們將繼續為我們的客戶打造優質的軌道車。

We're also looking at things that we're doing for our workforce across the board of thinking about our wages appropriate based on where we are with inflation and other market drivers. So I think we're doing a number of right things, but it is definitely a -- I would say that we're pretty much there in bringing back the bulk of the workforce, but we'll continue to have some challenges.

我們也在考慮我們正在為我們的員工做的事情，根據我們在通貨膨脹和其他市場驅動因素方面的情況，考慮我們的工資是否合適。所以我認為我們正在做一些正確的事情，但這絕對是——我想說我們在帶回大部分勞動力方面幾乎已經做到了，但我們將繼續面臨一些挑戰。

On the margin front, can you talk a little bit about the gap in margins between your different locations, be it Mexico versus the Central U.S. versus Europe. Just curious if there is an addition by subtraction angle here as you bring margin up in one of these regions, it does impact the consolidated margin pretty nicely.

在利潤率方面，您能否談談不同地點之間的利潤率差距，無論是墨西哥、美國中部還是歐洲。只是想知道當您在這些區域之一中提高利潤率時，這裡是否存在減法角度的增加，它確實很好地影響了合併利潤率。

I would say that we're fortunate that we have fairly steady margins at our various facilities. They each have benefits that they bring to the consolidated results. We're mindful of the car types that we build in different locations, leaning on the strength of that particular location, whether it be facility layout or workforce, maybe robotics or access to componentry. I don't -- there's not one particular footprint or production line that carries the day or drags things down.

我會說我們很幸運，我們在各種設施中都有相當穩定的利潤。他們每個人都為綜合結果帶來了好處。我們注意到我們在不同地點建造的汽車類型，依靠該特定地點的優勢，無論是設施佈局還是勞動力，可能是機器人技術或零部件的使用。我沒有 - 沒有一個特定的足跡或生產線能夠完成這一天或拖累事情。

And I think we're seeing steady improvement in Europe. I mean it's been a little bit more difficult for that group just because of the recent impact of the war and the step-up in cost. But again, the team there did some great collaboration with our customers to work through something that I don't think that environment has seen maybe ever. I think that we're a little bit more accustomed to some of that volatility and input costs here in North America. So I don't think that there's any one particular area that's a drag or a superstar.

我認為我們看到歐洲正在穩步改善。我的意思是，由於最近戰爭的影響和成本的增加，這對那個群體來說有點困難。但同樣，那裡的團隊與我們的客戶進行了一些很好的合作，以解決我認為該環境可能從未見過的事情。我認為我們更習慣於北美的一些波動性和投入成本。所以我不認為有任何一個特定領域是拖累或超級明星。

And last one for me. Can you talk a little bit about the syndication market has a higher cost of capital changed either the depth or makeup of who you're seeing bidding on railcars that you put into those channels? And just any thoughts about how that could evolve and whether or not the rising lease rate has been sufficient to keep up the expected return for the people who are playing in that market?

最後一個給我。你能談談辛迪加市場有更高的資本成本改變了你看到誰在你投入這些渠道的軌道車上出價的深度或構成嗎？關於這將如何演變以及不斷上升的租賃率是否足以維持在該市場上玩的人的預期回報的任何想法？

Yes. This is Brian. So it's a good question. And we haven't seen any change in liquidity in the syndication market. Keep in mind that the way that we price deals that we have interest rate adjusters. And so we tend to keep up with the debt -- the rising debt costs and the players that we've partnered with are long-term players in the marketplace. And so as we look forward, we continue to see a robust and really unaffected syndication market.

是的。這是布萊恩。所以這是個好問題。我們還沒有看到銀團市場的流動性有任何變化。請記住，我們為交易定價的方式是我們有利率調節器。因此，我們傾向於跟上債務——不斷上升的債務成本和我們合作的參與者是市場上的長期參與者。因此，當我們展望未來時，我們將繼續看到一個強勁且真正不受影響的聯合市場。

Next question comes from Allison Poliniak of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

Just Lorie, I just want to get your view here from the customer perspective, it seems like an unusually rational freight car market in terms of demand in this cycle. Is your sense, this is really just a replacement-driven demand market or do you feel like there's some incremental adds in certain verticals? Just any thoughts there.

只是Lorie，我只是想從客戶的角度在這裡了解您的看法，就這個週期的需求而言，這似乎是一個異常理性的貨車市場。你的感覺是，這真的只是一個替代驅動的需求市場，還是你覺得某些垂直領域有一些增量？只是有任何想法。

It is unsettling to see how rational things are going right now, which makes it almost feel irrational. I would say that it is broadly replacement demand, as Brian, I think, indicated in his prepared remarks, we've been -- the North American market has been scrapping at a pretty rapid clip. I think that our customers and Brian can add on to this, but our customers certainly have more that they would like to put on the rails, but they're struggling with the railroad performance and some of the fluidity issues there.

看到現在理性的事情進展得多麼令人不安，這讓人幾乎感到不理性。我想說，這基本上是替代需求，我認為，正如布賴恩在他準備好的發言中所指出的那樣，我們一直在——北美市場一直在以相當快的速度報廢。我認為我們的客戶和 Brian 可以對此進行補充，但我們的客戶肯定有更多他們想要投入鐵路的東西，但他們正在為鐵路性能和那裡的一些流動性問題而苦苦掙扎。

So I think as some of that settles out, we might see a little bit more growth and focus on increasing transportation via the rail. That's one of the positive spots, I would say, in Europe is they are definitely much more focused on the transition to goods on the rails as opposed to the highways, which is why we're seeing that expectation. We're seeing that strong pipeline with our customers as they're looking to grow and grow their fleet as well as to replace some aging equipment. Brian, anything you'd add?

所以我認為，隨著其中一些問題的解決，我們可能會看到更多的增長，並專注於增加鐵路運輸。這是一個積極的方面，我想說，在歐洲，他們肯定更專注於向鐵路上的貨物過渡，而不是高速公路上的貨物，這就是我們看到這種期望的原因。我們看到我們的客戶有強大的管道，因為他們希望擴大和擴大他們的車隊以及更換一些老化的設備。布賴恩，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. No, I just would piggyback off what you said. It's one of the reasons why we continue to remain pretty excited about the long-term future of rail is there's a tremendous amount of pent-up demand. The rationalization is being brought on by the lack of fluidity in the rail network today. Otherwise, we probably would have been in the typical hockey stick cycle that rail is so accustomed to.

是的。不，我只是想藉用你說的話。這是我們繼續對鐵路的長期未來感到非常興奮的原因之一，因為存在大量被壓抑的需求。合理化是由當今鐵路網絡缺乏流動性引起的。否則，我們可能會陷入 rail 已經習以為常的典型曲棍球桿循環。

And so as railroads continue to improve, which they are, and as velocity continues to improve, it's going to give them an opportunity to increase their market share. And for customers who want to use rail, which there is quite a number of them, to be able to add assets. And I think that's where our long-term play is even through these turbulent economic times.

因此，隨著鐵路的不斷改進，它們確實如此，並且隨著速度的不斷提高，這將為他們提供增加市場份額的機會。對於想要使用鐵路的客戶來說，有很多這樣的客戶能夠添加資產。我認為即使在這些動蕩的經濟時代，這也是我們的長期目標。

And then I just want to ask on maintenance. It seems like a lot of the benefit that you had in the margin this quarter was really Greenbrier driven less so on the volume side. Can you maybe talk a little bit more? I know you said that there's some, to some extent, labor. But what you're doing there and just how we should think of that margin through cycles? Just do we take a step up here from the efficiencies you're seeing or sort of too soon to tell on that side -- just any thoughts?

然後我只想問一下維護。似乎本季度您在利潤率方面獲得的很多好處實際上是 Greenbrier 在銷量方面的推動力較小。你能不能多說一點？我知道你說過，在某種程度上，有一些勞動。但是你在那裡做什麼以及我們應該如何通過週期來考慮這個利潤率？我們只是從您所看到的效率上邁出一步，還是有點太早了，無法在這方面說出來——有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I would say that the maintenance business is probably the toughest part of all of our businesses. I'm proud of what that group has been able to do by focusing on the workforce that we have, thinking differently about how we bring them in, how we train them. This is -- it's difficult work oftentimes in not the most glamorous locations or conditions.

是的。我想說維修業務可能是我們所有業務中最艱難的部分。我為該小組通過專注於我們擁有的勞動力，以不同的方式思考我們如何引進他們，我們如何培訓他們而能夠做的事情感到自豪。這是 - 在不是最迷人的地方或條件下，通常很難工作。

As we grow our fleet of railcars that we own and manage, having a strong network is going to be important as we maintain our own fleet, granted that you can't always do that because it depends on geographies. But I'm pleased with the progress that they've made, and I know that they're very focused on continuing their efforts.

隨著我們擁有和管理的軌道車車隊不斷壯大，擁有強大的網絡將變得很重要，因為我們要維護自己的車隊，當然你不能總是這樣做，因為它取決於地理位置。但我對他們取得的進展感到滿意，而且我知道他們非常專注於繼續努力。

The next question comes from Ken Hoexter of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

This is Adam Moskowsky [ph] on for Ken Hoexter. Maybe just a question on the backlog. It is up, but it's the second quarter of sequential declines. Maybe just talk a little bit about that softening and some of the end market demand exposure there.

我是 Ken Hoexter 的 Adam Moskowsky [ph]。也許只是關於積壓的問題。它在上升，但這是連續下降的第二個季度。也許只是談談這種疲軟和那裡的一些終端市場需求敞口。

I think it's more a matter of not necessarily a weakening environment. It's more a matter of us continuing to exercise discipline when deals don't necessarily meet our hurdle economics. And bear in mind that we're booking out 9, 10, 11 months on certain lines, 15, 16 months on other lines. And so because of that robust nature of our backlog, we're not always able to hit our customers' delivery requirements. So we continue to see robust activity. We saw that in fiscal Q4. We continue to see robust activity subsequent to that and continue to kind of expect to see that for the future. Brian, I don't know if you have any other color?

我認為這更多的是一個不一定是弱化環境的問題。當交易不一定符合我們的經濟門檻時，我們更需要繼續遵守紀律。請記住，我們在某些線路上預訂了 9、10、11 個月，在其他線路上預訂了 15、16 個月。因此，由於我們積壓的強大性質，我們並不總是能夠滿足客戶的交付要求。因此，我們繼續看到強勁的活動。我們在第四財季看到了這一點。我們繼續看到隨後的強勁活動，並繼續期待在未來看到這種情況。布賴恩，我不知道你有沒有其他顏色？

Yes, absolutely. I mean first of all, I agree, Justin. We're being selective at this stage on what orders we consider. But I can tell you that the cadence of orders continues to be very much in line with previous quarters. So and the sales pipeline inquiries continue to be strong. So we're still fielding a tremendous volume. In fact, in some respects, record volumes in quarter for opportunities. But given that we have a nice long backlog and we have visibility well into our next fiscal year, it's an opportunity to be a bit more selective as well.

是的，一點沒錯。我的意思是，首先，我同意，賈斯汀。在這個階段，我們正在選擇性地考慮我們考慮的訂單。但我可以告訴你，訂單的節奏仍然與前幾個季度非常一致。因此，銷售管道查詢繼續保持強勁。所以我們仍在處理大量的數據。事實上，在某些方面，創紀錄的季度銷量是為了機會。但鑑於我們有大量積壓的訂單，而且我們對下一個財政年度有很好的了解，這也是一個更具選擇性的機會。

And then maybe just a broad question on the expansion of the services business to reduce cyclicality. Thinking over the next couple of years, where do you see sort of an optimal mix? And what are some of the decisions on your end that go into that?

然後可能只是一個關於擴大服務業務以減少週期性的廣泛問題。考慮未來幾年，您認為最佳組合在哪裡？您對此做出了哪些決定？

Sure. So we have the fortunate position to be able to be talking to a broad number of customers. I'd say our leasing and services team have done a great job in the short amount of time that we have had the GBX leasing facility or platform created where we're developing that diversified portfolio of railcars. So I think as our markets remain and demand remains diversified, that will give us a great opportunity to continue to add.

當然。因此，我們有幸能夠與廣大客戶交談。我想說我們的租賃和服務團隊在很短的時間內做得很好，我們已經創建了 GBX 租賃設施或平台，我們正在開發多樣化的軌道車組合。所以我認為，由於我們的市場仍然存在，需求仍然多樣化，這將為我們提供一個繼續增加的好機會。

We do have the flexibility because of our capital markets group to be able to syndicate if we don't feel like it's the right time to be adding to that lease fleet. But I think from a long-term perspective, I would see just a steady step-up in investment in those leasing assets because they do provide that stability in cash flows and earnings, that's a nice offset to the typically more cyclical manufacturing. Again, right now with manufacturing, we're having some nice steady rational activity, so that's great. So I love it, if both manufacturing and our leasing platform continued on this upward momentum, neck and neck with each other and stable.

我們確實有靈活性，因為我們的資本市場小組能夠在我們覺得現在不是增加租賃機隊的合適時機時聯合起來。但我認為，從長遠來看，我會看到對這些租賃資產的投資穩步增加，因為它們確實提供了現金流和收益的穩定性，這很好地抵消了通常更具週期性的製造業。同樣，現在在製造業方面，我們有一些不錯的穩定理性活動，這很好。所以我喜歡它，如果製造和我們的租賃平台都繼續保持這種上升勢頭，並駕齊驅並保持穩定。

And then just one last one. You mentioned most of the order activity is replacement demand. Is it a matter of congestion scrapping, when are you viewing this to maybe inflect more into new activity?

然後就是最後一個。您提到大部分訂單活動是更換需求。這是一個擁塞報廢的問題，你什麼時候看到這個可能會更多地投入到新的活動中？

Yes. So this is Brian. A lot of the activity today is -- I would say it's twofold. There's a lot of scrapping going on as people have seen over the last couple of years, high scrap prices and an aging fleet, particularly when you think about box cars and the old 70-ton plate sea box car fleet and you think about the gondola fleet they continue to have very high attrition rates over the next 4 to 5 years.

是的。所以這是布賴恩。今天的很多活動都是——我想說它是雙重的。正如人們在過去幾年中看到的那樣，存在大量報廢，報廢價格高昂，車隊老化，尤其是當你想到箱車和舊的 70 噸板海箱車車隊以及吊船時艦隊 他們在未來 4 到 5 年內繼續保持非常高的損耗率。

So that tailwind will continue. You're also seeing some uptick in biodiesel facilities and other organic growth. So it's not just at this stage for the record, replacement demand, there is some organic demand going on as well. Where we see the real opportunity long-term is as the railroads become more fluid, we have a number of shippers that want to do even more. Some of it for ESG compliance reasons, some of it just because it's still the best mode of transportation.

所以順風將繼續。您還看到生物柴油設施和其他有機增長有所增加。因此，不僅在這個階段記錄在案，更換需求，還有一些有機需求也在發生。我們看到真正的長期機會是隨著鐵路變得更加流暢，我們有許多托運人想要做更多的事情。有些是出於 ESG 合規性原因，有些只是因為它仍然是最好的交通方式。

And with the river situations becoming what they are the Colorado River and mainly the Mississippi, which is really the workhorse of the U.S. There's opportunities for railroad to continue to increase share and they gain more and more fluidity. So again, we see it kind of a 3-legged stool.

隨著河流情況變成科羅拉多河和主要是密西西比河，這實際上是美國的主力。鐵路有機會繼續增加份額，並且它們獲得越來越多的流動性。所以，我們再次看到它是一種 3 條腿的凳子。

The next question comes from Steve Barger of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

Just want to make sure I understand the margin commentary. We should expect manufacturing gross margin or consolidated gross margin in the first half will run below what you saw in 4Q?

只是想確保我理解頁邊評論。我們應該預計上半年的製造毛利率或綜合毛利率將低於您在第四季度看到的水平？

We didn't give any explicit guidance, Steve. And again, we're kind of focused more on the overall of fiscal '23 without giving explicit guidance that we think it will be low double digits, possibly weighted more towards the back half. But as I think about it, we finished the fourth quarter pretty strong. We're happy with what we've done, and we expect to continue to improve on what we've done. Now again, you've seen us in years past, right? There's going to be some volatility when you start stepping down into the segments, manufacturing versus syndication activity versus our maintenance activity that makes those consolidated margins maybe not always be on a perfect trajectory.

我們沒有給出任何明確的指導，史蒂夫。再一次，我們更多地關注 23 財年的整體情況，但沒有給出明確的指導，我們認為這將是低兩位數，可能更偏重於後半部分。但正如我所想，我們第四季度的表現非常強勁。我們對我們所做的感到滿意，我們希望繼續改進我們所做的。再一次，你在過去的幾年裡見過我們，對吧？當你開始進入細分市場時，會有一些波動，製造與聯合活動與我們的維護活動相比，這使得這些綜合利潤率可能並不總是處於完美的軌道上。

And the one thing I would add, Steve, is with the high volume or a large percentage of our railcars that are being produced that are going on to the balance sheet, we have less syndication activity occurring. So we do not see a step backwards in manufacturing margins. I want to be very clear about that. But the more profitable syndication part of our business is going to be back half weighted, and that's what's driving the earnings cadence.

史蒂夫，我要補充的一件事是，我們正在生產的大量或很大比例的軌道車正在進入資產負債表，我們發生的聯合活動較少。因此，我們沒有看到製造業利潤率出現倒退。我想非常清楚這一點。但我們業務中利潤更高的聯合部分將回歸一半權重，這就是推動盈利節奏的原因。

Yes. Understood. I certainly am happy to hear that you're not going to step backward in manufacturing margin. But just to help level set expectations, when you look at mix, and obviously, there's challenges in Europe right now and just general economic conditions, would you expect first half '23 EPS can exceed last year's first half of $0.70?

是的。明白了。我當然很高興聽到您不會在製造利潤率方面倒退。但只是為了幫助設定預期，當你看組合時，顯然，歐洲目前面臨挑戰，只是一般經濟狀況，你預計上半年 23 年每股收益會超過去年上半年的 0.70 美元嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And Lorie, you said Greenbrier's assets are strong cash generators, but operating cash flow was negative over the last 2 years. And after net CapEx, free cash flow was lower than that. Are you saying positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow after net investment are achievable this year?

Lorie，你說 Greenbrier 的資產是強大的現金產生者，但過去 2 年的經營現金流為負。在淨資本支出之後，自由現金流低於此。你是說今年可以實現淨投資後的正經營現金流和正自由現金流嗎？

Yes. That is what we believe.

是的。這就是我們的信念。

And finally, just one last one for me. SG&A as a percent has been volatile over the past couple of years, the top line has moved around. If you hit your revenue goal for the year, how should we think about SG&A spend in dollars for fiscal '23?

最後，給我最後一個。 SG&A 的百分比在過去幾年中一直波動，收入一直在變動。如果您實現了當年的收入目標，我們應該如何看待 23 財年的 SG&A 支出？

Yes. We were guiding to $220 million to $230 million for the year obviously...

是的。顯然，我們今年的目標是 2.2 億至 2.3 億美元……

I think I missed that.

我想我錯過了。

Our last question will come from Justin Long of Stephens.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Stephens 的 Justin Long。

I just wanted to circle back on some of the questions around manufacturing margin specifically. So it sounds like you're not expecting a step back. I'm guessing that's for the full year, but is there any color you can give on the cadence of manufacturing gross margins that you would expect similar to what you said on consolidated margins?

我只是想回過頭來具體談談有關製造利潤率的一些問題。所以聽起來你並不期待退後一步。我猜這是全年的情況，但是對於製造業毛利率的節奏，您是否可以給出與您對合併利潤率所說的相似的顏色？

Yes. This is Justin, and I'll evidently go out on the limb on this one. So we do not see a step back in manufacturing margins at all and especially in the first half of the year, and we do expect to see some expansion ideally kind of throughout the year. So I think you saw a relatively large step-up from our fiscal Q3 to Q4.

是的。這是賈斯汀，我顯然會在這件事上冒險。因此，我們根本看不到製造業利潤率下降，尤其是在今年上半年，我們確實預計全年會出現一些理想的擴張。所以我認為你看到了我們從第三季度到第四季度的相對較大的提升。

And with the majority of the ramp behind us, this is more a matter of continuing to take cost out of the system, fine-tune the efficiencies. And at this point, we expect to make positive progress on that activity throughout the year. Now the thing we've learned over the last 2 years is there's a lot of volatility in the world. But that's what we see based on our production schedules, based on our backlog, and it's going to be a good year.

在我們落後的大部分斜坡上，這更多的是繼續從系統中降低成本，微調效率。在這一點上，我們希望全年在該活動上取得積極進展。現在我們在過去兩年中學到的是世界上有很多波動。但這就是我們根據我們的生產計劃、我們的積壓訂單所看到的，這將是一個好年頭。

And last thing I wanted to ask about was noncontrolling interest. That's something that can swing the numbers around a good bit. Any thoughts on where you could shake out in fiscal '23.

我想問的最後一件事是非控制性利益。這可以使數字左右搖擺。關於在 23 財年可以擺脫困境的任何想法。

Yes. That's a good question, Justin. And it really, as you said, it is -- definitely can be very volatile depending on our production activity in Mexico and what's going on in Europe. So we would see it being probably higher than it was in fiscal 2022, but not necessarily doubling or tripling at this point. Our production plan is relatively stable in Northern Mexico. And then it's a matter of kind of getting into the earnings ramp in Europe that we expect.

是的。這是個好問題，賈斯汀。正如你所說，它確實是 - 根據我們在墨西哥的生產活動和歐洲發生的事情，它肯定會非常不穩定。因此，我們會看到它可能會高於 2022 財年的水平，但此時不一定翻一番或三倍。我們的生產計劃在墨西哥北部相對穩定。然後這是進入我們預期的歐洲盈利增長的問題。

And Justin, just to be clear, would also be the timing would be impacted by syndication timing.

需要明確的是，賈斯汀也會受到聯合發佈時間的影響。

Congrats on the quarter.

祝賀這個季度。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Justin Roberts for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Justin Roberts 的閉幕詞。

Thank you very much, everyone, for your time and attention today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Investor Relations at gbrx.com. We are very excited about the year and are proud of what the team has accomplished in the last 12 months. Thank you, and have a great day.

非常感謝大家今天的時間和關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 gbrx.com 上的投資者關係部。我們對這一年感到非常興奮，並為團隊在過去 12 個月中取得的成就感到自豪。謝謝你，祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講，您現在可以斷開連接了。