Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Greenbrier Companies' first quarter of fiscal 2025 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 Greenbrier Companies 2025 財年第一季財報電話會議。

Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Each analyst should limit themselves to one question with a follow-up if needed. Until that time, all lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes.

今天的演講結束後，我們將進行問答環節。每個分析師應該只問一個問題，必要時進行跟進。在那之前，所有線路將處於只聽模式。應 Greenbrier 公司的請求，本次電話會議將會被錄音，以便即時重播。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President and Treasurer. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.

現在，我想將會議交給副總裁兼財務主管賈斯汀·羅伯茨先生。羅伯茲先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, Gary. Good afternoon and welcome to our first quarter of 2025 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and President of the Americas; and Michael Donfris, Senior Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，加里。下午好，歡迎參加我們 2025 年第一季的電話會議。今天，我與 Greenbrier 的執行長兼總裁 Lorie Tekorius 一起出席；布萊恩康斯托克 (Brian Comstock)，執行副總裁兼美洲區總裁；以及高級副總裁兼財務長 Michael Donfris。

Following our update on Greenbrier's Q1 performance and our outlook for the remainder of fiscal '25, we will open up the call for questions. Our earnings release and supplemental slide presentation can be found on the IR section of our website. Matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2025 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier.

在我們更新 Greenbrier 第一季的業績以及對 25 財年剩餘時間的展望之後，我們將開始回答問題。我們的收益報告和補充幻燈片介紹可以在我們網站的 IR 部分找到。今天的電話會議討論的內容包括 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案所定義的前瞻性陳述。在今天的討論中，我們將描述一些重要因素，這些因素可能會導致 Greenbrier 在 2025 年及以後的實際結果與 Greenbrier 或代表 Greenbrier 做出的任何前瞻性聲明中表達的結果存在重大差異。

Today, we will refer to recurring revenue throughout our comments. Recurring revenue is defined as leasing and fleet management revenue excluding the impact of syndication activity.

今天，我們將在整個評論中提及經常性收入。經常性收入定義為不包括聯合活動影響的租賃和車隊管理收入。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Lorie.

說完這些，我將把電話交給 Lorie。

Thank you, Justin and good afternoon, everyone. Happy New Year. As the new calendar year begins, our fiscal 2025 is well underway. Our strong performance in the first quarter builds on our accomplishments from the prior year, but our focus remains on generating more bottom-line results over a range of market conditions.

謝謝賈斯汀，大家下午好。新年快樂。隨著新日曆年的開始，我們的 2025 財政年度正在順利進行中。我們第一季的強勁表現建立在去年同期成績的基礎上，但我們的重點仍然是在各種市場條件下創造更多的獲利業績。

In Q1, Greenbrier generated EBITDA of $145 million along with a robust aggregate growth margin of 19.8%, reflecting a 480-basis-point year-over-year improvement. Over the last year, we achieved our highest aggregate growth margin since the peak years of the last decade. And today's market conditions are not as robust as that last peak, yet Greenbrier is much stronger.

第一季度，Greenbrier 的 EBITDA 為 1.45 億美元，總成長率強勁達到 19.8%，較去年同期成長 480 個基點。過去的一年，我們實現了自上個十年巔峰以來最高的總成長率。儘管如今的市場狀況不如上次高峰那麼強勁，但 Greenbrier 的實力更加強勁。

More precisely, we're generating near-record earnings in a new railcar demand environment that is roughly half of the prior peak years. Since launching our Better Together strategy just two years ago, we've made significant progress in enhancing our manufacturing gross margin, which is a key contributor to our Q1 performance. Michael will provide more details on our financial performance for the quarter shortly.

更準確地說，我們在新鐵路車輛需求環境中創造了接近創紀錄的收益，而這項需求大約是先前高峰年份的一半。自從兩年前推出「更好的在一起」策略以來，我們在提高製造毛利率方面取得了重大進展，這是我們第一季業績的關鍵貢獻者。邁克爾將很快提供有關我們本季度財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Our guidance for fiscal 2025 remains unchanged. Policy actions over the coming months by the incoming administration and Congress will help clarify the business environment in which we and our customers can expect to operate over the next few years. As Brian will discuss, the conversations we've been having with customers support a constructive demand outlook for the next few years.

我們對 2025 財年的指導保持不變。新政府和國會在未來幾個月採取的政策行動將有助於明確我們和我們的客戶在未來幾年內可預期經營的商業環境。正如布萊恩將要討論的那樣，我們與客戶進行的對話支持了未來幾年的建設性需求前景。

We, at Greenbrier, are currently on a multiyear journey to evolve our business and remain intent on executing our strategy regardless of market conditions. We're focused on increasing manufacturing productivity, limiting the impact of industry cyclicality on our results, and optimizing our business to unlock greater efficiencies. We continue to execute upon important strategic initiatives to ensure Greenbrier's long-term prosperity.

在 Greenbrier，我們正在進行多年的業務發展之旅，無論市場狀況如何，我們都會堅持執行我們的策略。我們專注於提高製造業生產力，限制產業週期性對我們業績的影響，並優化我們的業務以提高效率。我們將繼續執行重要的策略舉措，以確保 Greenbrier 的長期繁榮。

One of these initiatives is an organizational redesign that led to the combination of our manufacturing and maintenance services units into one reportable segment, manufacturing, which operates alongside the renamed Leasing and Fleet Management segment. Our new reporting convention aligns with our operating structure and allows us to function as a more thoughtful, holistic, and streamlined organization. This integrated approach situates us to maximize future opportunities.

其中一項措施是組織重新設計，將我們的製造和維護服務部門合併為一個可報告的部門——製造業，與更名後的租賃和車隊管理部門一起運作。我們的新報告慣例與我們的營運結構一致，使我們能夠作為一個更周到、全面和精簡的組織運作。這種綜合方法使我們能夠最大限度地利用未來的機會。

In our markets, the freight rail industry remains fundamentally healthy. In North America, rail traffic is projected to pick up as we move through 2025, and therefore, railroad velocity will be under pressure, which benefits railcar demand. North American railcar fleet utilization is about 81% with 318,000 units in storage.

在我們的市場中，貨運鐵路行業基本上保持健康。在北美，預計到 2025 年鐵路運輸量將會回升，因此鐵路速度將面臨壓力，有利於鐵路車輛需求。北美鐵路車輛利用率約為 81%，庫存車輛數量為 318,000 輛。

The actual surplus of railcars is lower than reported since many railcars in storage are either candidates for replacement, out of regulatory compliance, or support commodities in secular decline like coal. Fleet utilization is expected to remain generally steady, but we believe it will come down slightly during 2025 as North American railcar deliveries outpace retirements.

實際的鐵路車輛過剩數量低於報告的數字，因為許多儲存的鐵路車輛要么需要更換，要么不符合監管要求，要么支持煤炭等長期下跌的商品。預計車隊利用率將保持整體穩定，但我們認為，由於北美鐵路車輛的交付速度超過退役速度，車隊利用率將在 2025 年略有下降。

Our European backlog remains healthy, and our sales pipeline is strong as the commercial team continues to execute including lease originations. As a reminder, the expansion into lease originations in Europe allows us to stabilize our production activity similar to what we do in North America and is integral to the long-term performance of our European business. Lastly, in Brazil, we're observing an increase in demand as customers finalize infrastructure investments and transition to purchasing railcars.

我們在歐洲的積壓訂單仍然健康，而且由於商業團隊繼續執行包括租賃起源在內的工作，我們的銷售管道強勁。提醒一下，擴展到歐洲的租賃起源使我們能夠穩定我們的生產活動，類似於我們在北美所做的，這對於我們歐洲業務的長期表現至關重要。最後，在巴西，隨著客戶完成基礎設施投資並轉向購買鐵路車輛，我們觀察到需求增加。

Greenbrier is uniquely positioned to deliver strong performance across all market conditions and in every geography where we operate. I'm extremely optimistic about our future. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian, who will discuss our operating activities in greater detail.

Greenbrier 擁有獨特的優勢，能夠在所有市場條件下以及我們經營所在的每個地區提供強勁的表現。我對我們的未來極為樂觀。說完這些，我將把電話轉給布萊恩，他將更詳細地討論我們的營運活動。

Thank you, Lorie. As you mentioned, the actions we are taking to strengthen Greenbrier's long-term prospects are indeed generating enthusiasm throughout the organization. Now I'll turn to the quarter.

謝謝你，洛里。正如您所說，我們為加強 Greenbrier 的長期前景而採取的行動確實在整個組織中激發了熱情。現在我來談談本季。

In Q1, we delivered 6,000 new railcars. Manufacturing gross margin was strong at 17.1%, benefiting from a product mix weighted to more profitable car types and an ongoing optimization in our manufacturing process and capacity.

第一季度，我們交付了 6,000 輛新列車。製造業毛利率強勁達到 17.1%，受益於產品結構向利潤更高的車型傾斜，以及製造流程和產能的持續優化。

The leasing team continued to produce good results as well. Greenbrier's lease fleet grew by 1,200 units in the quarter with stable fleet utilization of roughly 99%. Recurring revenue on a trailing four-quarter basis is $148 million or 32% higher than our starting point. We remain disciplined in our approach, and we will continue investing up to $300 million per year on a net basis provided that the railcar fleet additions meet our return criteria.

租賃團隊也持續取得良好的業績。本季度，Greenbrier 的租賃車隊增加了 1,200 輛，車隊利用率穩定在 99% 左右。過去四個季度的經常性收入為 1.48 億美元，比我們的起點高出 32%。我們將繼續嚴守自己的做法，只要增加的鐵路車輛符合我們的回報標準，我們將繼續每年淨投資高達 3 億美元。

Lease renewal rates continue to grow at double digits during the quarter. As a reminder, we entered fiscal 2025 with about 10% of our leases up for renewal, and we have already successfully renewed about half of those in Q1. Given the ongoing strength in the leasing market, we are confident that we will successfully renew or remarket all of the remaining units.

本季租賃續約率持續維持兩位數成長。提醒一下，進入 2025 財年時，我們約有 10% 的租約需要續約，並且我們已經在第一季成功續約了其中約一半的租約。鑑於租賃市場的持續強勁，我們有信心成功續簽或重新銷售所有剩餘的單位。

In Q1, Greenbrier syndicated 800 units with multiple investors, continuing to generate strong liquidity and margins. Our capital markets team executed its first transaction with a new syndication partner. The team also executed on a meaningful buy-sell opportunity in the secondary market that generated positive margin with a very short hold period.

第一季度，Greenbrier 與多位投資者聯合發行了 800 個單位，繼續產生強勁的流動性和利潤率。我們的資本市場團隊與新的銀團合作夥伴進行了第一筆交易。該團隊還在二級市場上實施了有意義的買賣機會，在很短的持有期內產生了正利潤。

Looking at the new railcar market, Greenbrier secured global orders of 3,800 units worth $520 million in the quarter, with lease originations about 45% of this order activity. Based on what we've seen after the US election in early November, we believe the slowdown in new railcar order activity over the last few quarters has been temporary.

縱觀新軌道車輛市場，Greenbrier 本季獲得了 3,800 輛全球訂單，價值 5.2 億美元，其中租賃訂單約佔訂單量的 45%。根據我們在 11 月初美國大選後看到的情況，我們認為過去幾季新鐵路車輛訂單活動的放緩是暫時的。

In fact, in the month of December, which has traditionally been very quiet due to the holidays, we secured global railcar orders of approximately 1,400 units with our sales pipeline strengthening. We expect favorable customer decisions to come quickly on the back of policy announcements.

事實上，在傳統上因假期而較為平靜的 12 月份，隨著我們銷售管道的加強，我們獲得了約 1,400 輛全球軌道車輛訂單。我們預計，政策公佈後，客戶將很快做出有利的決定。

Our backlog is strong at 23,400 units with an estimated value of $3 billion, providing significant revenue visibility. In addition to our backlog, programmatic railcar restoration activity that is not included in our backlog has become more predictable in nature. As a reminder, this activity involves repurposing existing railcars into new equipment service through rebodying work, stretch conversions, re-racking or [deck] conversions. It also includes tank car retrofits and requalifications.

我們的積壓訂單量高達 23,400 台，估計價值 30 億美元，為收入提供了顯著的可預見性。除了我們的積壓工作之外，未包括在我們的積壓工作中的計劃性軌道車輛修復活動在性質上也變得更加可預測。提醒一下，這項活動涉及透過重新裝潢、拉伸改裝、重新架設或[甲板]改裝，將現有的軌道車重新用於新設備服務。它還包括油罐車的改造和重新鑑定。

The impact of requalifications is highly relevant as this work is statutory and required to be completed every 10 years. This work is performed for large fleet owners who require work on hundreds and sometimes thousands of railcars at a time. In fiscal 2025, we will perform these activities on several 1,000 units and expect this work to continue at a healthy pace for the next few years.

重新認證的影響非常重要，因為這項工作是法定的，並且需要每 10 年完成一次。這項工作是為大型車隊所有者進行的，他們一次需要對數百輛甚至數千輛火車車廂進行維修。在2025財年，我們將在數千個單位開展這些活動，並預計未來幾年這項工作將以健康的速度繼續進行。

These activities are not just accretive to Greenbrier. They support our ability to utilize our capacity in an efficient manner. Railcar restoration and requalification work can be performed at our manufacturing facilities or at our maintenance locations depending on various factors. This provides us significant flexibility to maximize the use of our existing footprint.

這些活動不僅對 Greenbrier 有益。它們支持我們以有效的方式利用我們的能力。根據各種因素，軌道車修復和重新鑑定工作可以在我們的製造工廠或維修地點進行。這為我們提供了極大的靈活性，可以最大限度地利用我們現有的空間。

Overall, we expect to deliver strong performance through fiscal 2025 as Greenbrier continues to successfully implement its strategic plan. With that, I'll hand the call over to Michael.

總體而言，隨著 Greenbrier 繼續成功實施其戰略計劃，我們預計到 2025 財年將取得強勁的業績。說完這些，我就把電話交給麥可。

Thank you, Brian. I will cover our financial highlights and drivers of performance in Q1 that leads us to affirm our fiscal year 2025 guidance today. As Justin mentioned, you can find our earnings release and supplemental slides on our website.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我將介紹我們第一季的財務亮點和業績驅動因素，這將有助於我們今天確認 2025 財年的指引。正如賈斯汀所提到的，您可以在我們的網站上找到我們的收益報告和補充幻燈片。

Greenbrier's fiscal 2025 is off to a great start with strong operating performance, highlighted by a sequential increase in aggregate gross margin percent and operating margin percent. Revenue in the quarter of $876 million represents a new first-quarter record for Greenbrier. The decrease compared to Q4 was primarily attributed to lower deliveries resulting from reduced syndication activity due to timing.

Greenbrier 的 2025 財年開局良好，營運表現強勁，其中總毛利率和營業利潤率連續上升。本季 8.76 億美元的營收創下了 Greenbrier 第一季的新紀錄。與第四季度相比，下降主要歸因於由於時間安排導致聯合活動減少，導致交付量下降。

Aggregate gross margin increased by 160 basis points to 19.8%, marking the third consecutive quarter of margin expansion. This increase is primarily due to a beneficial product mix and strong operating efficiencies.

總毛利率增加160個基點至19.8％，這是利潤率連續第三季擴大。這一成長主要歸功於有利的產品組合和強大的營運效率。

First-quarter operating income was $112 million or 12.8% of revenue. The 100-basis-point increase for the quarter was due to improved profitability and lower selling and administrative expenses. Our quarterly tax rate of 37.8% was higher than the fourth quarter, mainly due to the geographic mix of earnings and the impact of unfavorable items related to foreign currency exchange rates.

第一季營業收入為 1.12 億美元，佔營收的 12.8%。本季 100 個基點的成長是由於獲利能力提高以及銷售和管理費用降低。我們的季度稅率為37.8%，高於第四季度，這主要歸因於收益的地域組合以及與外匯匯率相關的不利項目的影響。

Net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $55 million generated diluted earnings per share of $1.72 and was the strongest first-quarter earnings per share since 2016. And finally, EBITDA for the quarter was $145 million or 16.6% of revenue.

歸屬於 Greenbrier 的淨利潤為 5,500 萬美元，每股攤薄收益為 1.72 美元，是自 2016 年以來第一季每股收益最強勁的一次。最後，本季的 EBITDA 為 1.45 億美元，佔營收的 16.6%。

For 12 months ending November 30, 2024, our return on invested capital, or ROIC, was 11.2%, marking a 140-basis-point sequential increase and within our 2026 target range of 10% to 14% that was announced less than two years ago. The improvement in ROIC reflects the enhanced operating and capital efficiency generated by the execution of our Better Together strategy.

截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日的 12 個月，我們的投資資本回報率 (ROIC) 為 11.2%，環比增長 140 個基點，並且處於我們不到兩年前宣布的 2026 年目標範圍 10% 至 14% 之內。投資報酬率的提高反映了我們實施「攜手共進」策略所帶來的營運和資本效率的提升。

Moving to our balance sheet and liquidity, Greenbrier's Q1 liquidity remained strong at $549 million, consisting of $300 million in cash and $249 million in available borrowing capacity. Our cash flow from operations was a use of cash of approximately $65 million. This was primarily due to leased assets placed on the balance sheet during the quarter, awaiting syndication or capitalization during the year. We expect liquidity in fiscal 2025 to increase driven by continued strong operating results, working capital efficiency, and increased borrowing capacity.

轉向我們的資產負債表和流動性，Greenbrier 的第一季流動性保持強勁，為 5.49 億美元，其中包括 3 億美元現金和 2.49 億美元的可用借貸能力。我們的經營活動產生的現金流約為 6,500 萬美元。這主要是因為本季租賃資產被列入資產負債表，等待年內進行聯合或資本化。我們預計，在持續強勁的經營業績、營運資金效率和借貸能力增強的推動下，2025 財年的流動性將會增加。

We will remain disciplined in managing our capital structure and balance sheet. Our net debt to EBITDA stands at approximately 3 times and has been trading lower -- trending lower as we continue to generate strong operating earnings and work towards reducing our recourse debt.

我們將繼續嚴格管理我們的資本結構和資產負債表。我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率約為 3 倍，且一直在下降 - 趨勢是下降，因為我們繼續創造強勁的營業收入並努力減少我們的追索債務。

Switching to capital allocation, we remain disciplined and are committed to returning capital to shareholders through a combination of dividends and stock buybacks. Today, Greenbrier's Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.30 per share. This is our 43rd consecutive quarterly dividend.

在資本配置方面，我們保持紀律，並致力於透過股利和股票回購相結合的方式向股東返還資本。今天，Greenbrier 董事會宣布每股股息 0.30 美元。這是我們連續第43季派發股息。

Additionally, Greenbrier's Board of Directors renewed and extended a $100 million share repurchase program. We are committed to deploying capital to create long-term shareholder value and will continue to utilize this capacity opportunistically and within the framework of our broader capital allocation strategy. Finally, we affirm our previously issued guidance based on current trends and production schedules, and our fiscal 2025 revenue delivery and margin guidance are unchanged.

此外，Greenbrier 董事會也更新並延長了 1 億美元的股票回購計畫。我們致力於部署資本來創造長期股東價值，並將繼續在更廣泛的資本配置策略框架內適時利用這項能力。最後，我們根據當前趨勢和生產計劃確認先前發布的指引，並且 2025 財年收入交付和利潤率指引保持不變。

I want to highlight a few points regarding our margin guidance. We expect improvements in operating efficiencies to continue. However, the product mix in the second half of the year will change as expected. Our margin guidance target remains intact and is unaffected by this product ship. We are updating our capital expenditure guidance modestly, and investments in manufacturing are unchanged and expected to be around $120 million.

我想強調一下有關我們的利潤率指導的幾點。我們預計營運效率將持續提高。但下半年的產品結構將會發生預期的變化。我們的利潤指導目標保持不變，不受該產品的出貨影響。我們正在適度更新我們的資本支出指引，對製造業的投資保持不變，預計約為 1.2 億美元。

Gross investment in leasing and fleet management of $360 million and proceeds of equipment sales of $60 million have been reduced. This is approximately a $5 million reduction in guidance on a net basis. This is primarily due to better visibility into our plan for fiscal year 2025. And while the number of railcars to be capitalized and sold out of our lease label decrease, we still plan to deliver against our targeted investment of approximately $300 million.

租賃和車隊管理的總投資減少了 3.6 億美元，設備銷售收益減少了 6,000 萬美元。這意味著淨指導金額減少了約 500 萬美元。這主要是因為我們對 2025 財政年度計畫有了更好的了解。雖然我們租賃標籤下資本化和銷售的鐵路車輛數量減少，但我們仍計劃實現約 3 億美元的投資目標。

In conclusion, we are incredibly pleased with the first-quarter results. Our financial position is strong, our strategy is progressing well, and our outlook for fiscal 2025 is positive. I am confident in our near- and long-term ability to grow earnings while continuing to deliver strong returns on the capital we invest. This all supports increased shareholder returns in years ahead.

總之，我們對第一季的業績感到非常滿意。我們的財務狀況強勁，我們的策略進展順利，我們對 2025 財年的前景樂觀。我對我們在短期和長期內增加盈利並繼續為我們所投資的資本帶來豐厚回報的能力充滿信心。這一切都支持未來幾年股東回報的增加。

And now we'll open it up for questions.

現在我們開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

（操作員指示） Ken Hoexter，美國銀行。

Hey, great. Good afternoon. Lorie, congratulations, some phenomenal improvements over the last few years. The strong margin gain, the 17%, I'm not sure if you can parse that to the old category just so we can kind of understand what's going on with the manufacturing. But maybe just delve into, if only on a combined basis, what drove it. I guess you talked a little bit about mix, product mix that might shift in the back half. We see pricing, especially on the new orders, kind of is up. So maybe you can talk about what drove the margin gains.

嘿，太棒了。午安.洛里，恭喜你，過去幾年你取得了顯著的進步。利潤率大幅增加 17%，我不確定您是否可以將其解析為舊類別，以便我們能夠了解製造業發生的情況。但也許只是深入研究，即使只是從綜合的角度，是什麼導致了它發生。我想你談到了組合，產品組合可能會在後半部分發生變化。我們看到價格，特別是新訂單的價格有所上漲。所以也許您可以談談推動利潤成長的因素。

And then, Brian, in your commentary, you noted the slowdown was temporary. But in the press release, it noted demand is easing slightly for certain railcar types and in some markets. So I just want to understand. It sounds like you're saying it was temporary and inflected in the press release maybe saying it's maybe potential for slowing. So if I can just get an understanding in there, too.

然後，布萊恩，在您的評論中，您指出經濟放緩是暫時的。但在新聞稿中，該公司指出某些類型的鐵路車輛和某些市場的需求略有減弱。所以我只是想了解一下。聽起來你是在說這是暫時的，並且在新聞稿中有所改動，也許說它可能會放緩。所以如果我也能理解的話。

Sure. Thanks, Ken. And I will say that I appreciate the congratulations, but it's definitely a broad team effort to be able to achieve the results that we've achieved the last couple of years.

當然。謝謝，肯。我要說的是，我感謝大家的祝賀，但我們過去幾年取得的成績無疑是整個團隊共同努力的結果。

Regarding the margin gains and parsing it between the historical or legacy manufacturing versus our maintenance services, if you think back on some of our historical financials, maintenance services is -- it's a fairly modest-sized business. So when it blends in with manufacturing, it doesn't really move the dial on that margin percentage. We looked at that one. We were putting this together to make certain that we weren't going to be skewing any historical data either.

關於利潤率成長以及歷史或傳統製造與維護服務之間的對比，如果回顧一下我們的一些歷史財務狀況，就會發現維護服務是一項相當規模適中的業務。因此，當它與製造業融合時，它實際上不會改變利潤率。我們看了那個。我們將這些數據整合在一起，以確保不會扭曲任何歷史數據。

So the real driver is the fact that our teams have been focused on how to continue improving manufacturing efficiencies, how can we in-source the things that we need to in-source, eliminating transportation costs, how can we drive hours per unit down, or how can we manage our overhead. It's the kind of work that will sustain us across a variety of car types, product mix, markets. I will say that Q1 did benefit from certain car types that Brian can speak to. But there are more specialized car types that end up having a better gross margin.

因此，真正的驅動力是，我們的團隊一直專注於如何繼續提高製造效率，如何將我們需要內部採購的東西進行內部採購，消除運輸成本，如何降低每單位的生產時間，或如何管理我們的管理費用。這項工作將幫助我們在各種車型、產品組合和市場上生存下去。我想說的是，Q1 確實受益於 Brian 所談論的某些車型。但更專業的車型最終會擁有更好的毛利率。

Yeah. I think that maybe just to complete what Lorie said is at the end of the day, it's a little bit of everything. It's like the perfect storm. You've got -- some of it is product mix, which is weighted primarily towards the auto sector and some of our specialty cars that we have highly engineered. And some of it is the efficiencies and the in-sourcing initiatives that we took on, I guess, 18 months ago, give or take. And we're starting to see a lot of that benefit start to come through the P&L.

是的。我認為，也許只是為了完成洛里所說的事情，到最後，這需要做所有的事情。這就像一場完美風暴。您已經了解—其中一部分是產品組合，主要專注於汽車領域和一些我們精心設計的專業汽車。我想，其中一部分原因是我們在 18 個月前採取的效率和內部採購措施。我們開始看到許多好處開始透過損益表體現出來。

As we look forward, on the commercial side, the question towards the commercial side is leading up to really kind of the elections. I think you saw a lot of apprehension from customers trying to figure out what is policy going to be, how are things going to look. And if we can defer decisions, we'll defer decisions.

展望未來，從商業方面來看，商業方面的問題其實會直接影響選舉。我想您會看到很多顧客感到憂慮，他們想弄清楚政策將會是什麼，事情將會如何發展。如果我們可以延後決策，我們就會延後決策。

We're starting to see some of that break loose. Not only are we seeing it break loose. We're starting to see the pipeline build. December was a very strong month for building the pipeline. January looks like it's going to continue that rate.

我們開始看到其中一些現象開始出現。我們不僅看到它的崩潰。我們開始看到管道的建設。十二月是管線建設非常強勁的一個月。一月看上去將繼續保持這速度。

It's car types, I would say, that are more traditional. It's covered hopper cars. It's chemical tank cars. It's some various guns, box car replacements. It's those types of cars that we're seeing that are gaining some momentum versus where we've had a strong emphasis on some specialty gondolas and highly engineered cars as well as auto. So hopefully, that helps.

我想說的是，這些汽車類型更加傳統。這是有蓋的漏斗車。是化學品罐車。它是一些各種槍支、箱式車的替代品。我們看到這些類型的汽車正在獲得一些發展勢頭，而我們過去主要強調的是一些特殊車輛、高度工程化的汽車以及汽車。希望這能有所幫助。

No, it does. It's a great explanation. And then just if I can sneak one more in. Just it looks like the backlog came down, right? So you went from -- you've gone down from, what, $3.8 billion, $3.7 billion, $3.4 billion down to $3 billion. Is that kind of the tentativeness you're talking about and maybe it bounces back? Or do you think just in this environment, we're starting -- we're going to kind of draw down on that backlog?

不，確實如此。這是一個很好的解釋。然後如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次就好了。看起來積壓的訂單已經減少了，對嗎？所以你從 — — 從 38 億美元、37 億美元、34 億美元降到了 30 億美元。這就是您說的試探性，它可能會反彈嗎？或者您認為僅在這種環境下，我們才開始--我們將減少積壓訂單？

Let me start with something, and then you can add, Brian. It is interesting when you say that, $3 billion worth of backlog. That's pretty incredible, right? So I think sometimes, we forget to appreciate how far we've come and where we sit. So we're very pleased to have that sort of backlog.

讓我先說一些事情，然後你可以添加，布萊恩。你這麼說，有價值 30 億美元的積壓訂單，這很有趣。這真是太不可思議了，對吧？所以我認為有時我們忘記欣賞我們已經走了多遠以及我們現在處於什麼位置。所以我們很高興有這樣的積壓訂單。

But this is why we've been focusing our attention on our footprint and thinking about how do we utilize the footprint we have to the best of its abilities. And so that's our footprint in the US, that's our footprint in Mexico. And what does the -- particularly the North American industry need, do they need new railcars? Do they need requalification? Do they need some of these rebodies that Brian was talking about? So that work is not part of backlog.

但這就是為什麼我們一直關注我們的足跡並思考如何最大限度地利用我們現有的足跡。這就是我們在美國的足跡，這就是我們在墨西哥的足跡。那麼——特別是北美工業需要什麼，他們需要新的火車車廂嗎？他們需要重新認證嗎？他們是否需要 Brian 所說的一些重新身體化的東西？因此這項工作不屬於積壓工作。

So I think if you were to -- if we were able to bundle all that together, you would see growth in backlog. That's what gives us the confidence and the positiveness about our outlook as we have all this different activity to utilize the footprint we have. It just doesn't always show up in that backlog bucket.

所以我認為，如果我們能夠將所有這些捆綁在一起，你會看到積壓訂單的增長。這給了我們對我們的前景的信心和積極性，因為我們有各種各樣的活動來利用我們已有的足跡。它只是不總是出現在積壓桶中。

Yeah. And I'll just tag on to what she said because that really is the phenomenon of what you're seeing is as we think about our manufacturing footprint and how we utilize the whole of Greenbrier and all of our strengths. One of those strengths is in doing these rebodies and these sustainable conversions. And we've kind of built on that factor.

是的。我只是想補充她所說的話，因為那確實是你們所看到的現象，當我們思考我們的製造足跡以及我們如何利用整個 Greenbrier 和我們所有的優勢時。其中一個優勢就是能夠進行這些重塑和可持續的轉變。我們已經建立起了這個因素。

So as the needle on new car kind of ticks down a little bit, we tick up what we do on the refurbishment side. And then as demand comes back, we can look at rebalancing that on the refurbishment side. But if you think about backlog, keep in mind, to Lorie's point, there's several thousand cars that aren't in that number that fit into that category that typically have an ASP of $50,000 or $60,000 per car. So that really makes a pretty big swing as you think about backlog numbers.

因此，隨著新車銷售的下降，我們將增加翻新方面的工作。然後隨著需求的回升，我們可以考慮在翻新方面重新平衡。但如果你考慮積壓訂單，請記住，正如 Lorie 所說，有數千輛汽車不在這個數字之內，它們屬於這個類別，通常每輛車的平均售價為 50,000 美元或 60,000 美元。因此，當你考慮積壓數量時，這確實會產生很大的變化。

And it's margin -- very margin accretive.

而且它的利潤——非常具有增值性。

It's very margin accretive.

它對利潤增值非常大。

Great. Appreciate the time. Thanks, guys.

偉大的。珍惜時間。謝謝大家。

(Operator Instructions) Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

（操作員指示） 巴斯康姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎哈納。

Thanks for walking through the incremental recovery and optimism in the order flow over the last -- and inquiries over the last several weeks here. Can we talk a little bit more of the production plan as you have it guided? I know that can get different than deliveries with some of what goes on the balance sheet and what goes out in syndication and the timing of that. But as guided today, how does the production plan look versus what you did last quarter into the second half? And when do we get to the point where you need better orders to come through to sustain that or have to make a decision to taper that to protect margins?

感謝您介紹過去幾週訂單流的逐步復甦和樂觀情況，以及過去幾週的詢問。我們可以按照您的指導再多談一下生產計劃嗎？我知道，這與資產負債表上的內容、銀團貸款的內容以及時間安排等交付可能會有所不同。但正如今天的指導，與上個季度和下半年相比，生產計劃如何？我們什麼時候會達到需要更好的訂單來維持這種狀況，或必須做出減少訂單量以保護利潤率的決定？

I'll take the first part of that, and then Brian and Lorie can kind of talk about the decisions that need to be made. So big picture, Bascome, production is probably going to be similar in the back half of the year as it is in the first half within a few hundred units. Again, part of this is you think about a railcar is not a railcar is not a railcar, so size matters and as you shift from maybe larger car types to smaller car types, so on and so forth.

我將負責第一部分，然後 Brian 和 Lorie 可以討論需要做出的決定。所以從整體來看，Bascome 公司下半年的產量可能與上半年的產量差不多，大概在幾百台左右。再一次，部分原因是您認為軌道車不是軌道車，所以尺寸很重要，當您從較大的車型轉向較小的車型時，依此類推。

But big picture, we don't see a significant shift in our production rate per se, but it is more about the types of cars moving to a little bit more of a commoditized type of car in the back half versus the first half. And then from a decision perspective about -- when you think about orders and --

但從總體上看，我們並沒有看到生產力本身發生顯著的變化，但更多的是，與上半年相比，後半年的汽車類型變得更加商品化。然後從決策的角度來看——當你考慮訂單和--

I think it really comes down to visibility. As visibility, for example, had some of the orders continued to slow through the next few months, then we may be having a different decision. But as things kind of pivot and come back and visibility on the lines and material order dates are still reasonably in check, then we continue to maintain our production status. So at this stage, we don't see any change in our production status.

我認為這實際上取決於可見性。例如，如果未來幾個月部分訂單的成長速度持續放緩，我們可能會做出不同的決定。但隨著情況逐漸好轉，生產線的可見性和材料訂單日期仍然得到合理的控制，我們將繼續保持生產狀態。所以在現階段，我們的生產狀況沒有任何改變。

And to be clear on that -- go ahead. I'm sorry.

為了明確這一點--請繼續。對不起。

Sure, Bascome. I was just going to say in two -- just to reemphasize, I think, something that you said earlier, Brian, is we really have seen the pipeline of activity pick up in the month of December here and in early January with some pretty exciting opportunities, particularly for the North American market. So that's what gives us that optimism. And looking at our -- however many different production lines we have going at any point in time, that's just part of what we do week in and week out. Go ahead, Justin.

當然，巴斯康姆。我只想分兩點說——我想再次強調一下你之前說過的一件事，布萊恩，我們確實看到 12 月份和 1 月初的活動渠道有所回暖，出現了一些非常令人興奮的機會，尤其是對於北美市場而言。這就是我們感到樂觀的原因。看看我們的——無論我們在任何時候有多少不同的生產線在運行，這只是我們每週所做工作的一部分。繼續吧，賈斯汀。

And the one thing I would say, Bascome, is this is an experienced management team that's agile, and they will move -- sorry, I got a stare for saying experienced. A seasoned management team that is -- has been through several different types of cycles and several different commodity plays. And at the end of the day, with the extensive relationships and experience in the marketplace, we feel like we're very well positioned to understand what's coming our way and be able to react quickly, good or bad.

我想說的是，巴斯康姆，這是一支經驗豐富、行動敏捷的管理團隊，他們會採取行動 — — 抱歉，我因為說「經驗豐富」而遭到了別人的瞪視。經驗豐富的管理團隊已經經歷過幾種不同類型的週期和幾種不同的商品交易。最後，憑藉在市場上的廣泛關係和經驗，我們覺得自己能夠非常充分地了解即將發生的事情，並且能夠快速做出反應，無論好壞。

So it sounds like the inquiry and order rate you've had recently is supportive of that backlog if it continues. Or do we need to see it pick up further from the last few weeks or 1.5 months to really support the delivery guidance?

因此，聽起來，如果這種情況持續下去，您最近的詢價和訂單率將支持這種積壓。或者我們是否需要看到它在過去幾週或 1.5 個月內進一步回升才能真正支持交付指導？

I don't really -- I would say we don't really need to see a material increase or uptick. What I would say is we do have a little bit of open space kind of in the July, August time frame, which is pretty normal for us in this time of year. And I would say at this point, we are not concerned about being able to fill that at expected rates.

我並不真的——我想說我們確實不需要看到實質的成長或上升。我想說的是，我們在七月、八月期間確實有一些開放空間，這對我們每年的這個時候來說很正常。我想說，就目前情況而言，我們並不擔心能否以預期的速度滿足這項需求。

And I would say sometimes we like having a little bit of open space in our production because that allows us to be responsive when a customer maybe have a need pop up that they didn't fully appreciate.

我想說，有時我們喜歡在生產中留出一點開放空間，因為當客戶出現他們尚未完全意識到的需求時，這使我們能夠做出回應。

Thank you. Two guidance clarifications, then I'll pass it on. The tapering from the gross margin where you are in this quarter to where the guidance is, how much of that is the mix impact you've talked about from going to more commodity car types? Are there other pieces in that? Or is there just some conservatism with the second half from not knowing exactly what the orders and car types look like? And then maybe that could be better if things go as planned.

謝謝。兩條指導性澄清，然後我會傳達。從本季的毛利率到預期的毛利率逐漸下降，其中有多少是您所說的轉向更多商品車型帶來的綜合影響？其中還有其他部分嗎？還是說只是因為不知道下半年訂單和車型的具體情況而採取保守態度？如果事情按計劃進行，也許情況會更好。

And to the second point, you made some comments on liquidity, working capital. I mean, it sounded like the views on cash flow were a bit more constructive than we've heard from you recently. Any clarification around what that means for operating cash flow or free cash flow or however you'd like to frame it? Thank you.

關於第二點，您對流動性、營運資金提出了一些評論。我的意思是，聽起來關於現金流的觀點比我們最近聽到的要更有建設性。能否解釋一下這對經營現金流或自由現金流意味著什麼，或者您想如何表達它？謝謝。

I'll jump on margin and if you want to take the cash flow, Michael, that would be great. So what I would say is that given where we're at and the fact that we are, I'd say, 12 days away from a new administration stepping in, we believe that we have pretty good visibility on margins but also do have a little bit of, I would say, caution baked in just in case things happened that we aren't expecting or there's unanticipated events. A lot of, I think, the margin shift is related to the mix shift first half versus back half. And -- but at the end of the day, it is -- we just want to make sure that we are not out of our skis from that perspective, and we're constructive but not overly optimistic or out of touch with reality from that perspective.

我會跳上保證金，如果你想獲得現金流，邁克爾，那就太好了。因此我想說的是，考慮到我們目前的情況以及距離新政府上台還有 12 天的事實，我們相信我們對利潤率有很好的可視性，但也要保持一點謹慎，以防發生我們沒有預料到的事情或出現意外事件。我認為，利潤率的變化很大程度上與上半場與後半場的混合變化有關。但歸根結底，我們只是想確保從這個角度來看我們不會失去理智，我們是建設性的，但不會過度樂觀或脫離現實。

And just maybe before Michael goes to liquidity, I'll say and that's why I tried to emphasize early on that we are focused on finding ways that we can improve our production efficiency that sustain us across various demand environments.

也許在麥可談到流動性之前，我想說，這就是為什麼我試著儘早強調，我們專注於尋找能夠提高生產效率的方法，以維持我們在各種需求環境中的生存。

Right. And just jumping in on liquidity, having the strong margin tailwind going into the year and kind of moving through the years helping us, the efficiency that we're seeing from a manufacturing standpoint is helping as well. And we're very careful and diligent in how we invest our capital. So I think -- that's been a real positive for us. We also have teams working on working capital really across the globe. And we're watching that very closely, too. So I think we have good visibility into it, and I'm pretty excited about our plans as we finish through the year.

正確的。只要投入流動性，在進入今年以來強勁的利潤率順風，並在這些年裡幫助我們，從製造業的角度來看，效率也有幫助。我們在投資資本方面非常謹慎和勤勉。所以我認為這對我們來說真的是一件正面的事情。我們在全球也有致力於營運資本的團隊。我們也正在密切關注這一點。因此我認為我們對此有很好的了解，並且我對我們今年年底的計劃感到非常興奮。

Thank you all.

謝謝大家。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Hey, thanks for the quick one. Maybe just to summarize what Bascome was kind of hitting on, the guidance, right? So if you -- such a strong beat this quarter. You didn't raise fiscal '25. So I guess, Justin, you just threw out there it's just conservatism. Or maybe what gets you back into range? What do we need to see that you're not raising the target at this point given the strong first-quarter performance?

嘿，謝謝你的快速幫助。也許只是為了總結巴斯康所強調的指導，對嗎？因此，如果您 — — 本季表現如此強勁。你沒有提高 25 財年。所以我想，賈斯汀，你剛才說的只是保守主義。或是什麼讓你回到範圍？鑑於第一季的強勁表現，我們需要看到什麼，以至於您現在不提高目標？

Well, I think what I would say is we have a -- we do have some open space in the back half of the year. And we are seeing strong pipeline and increases in that activity. But part of it is also looking at the kind of mix of orders, the types of cars we see coming down the pipeline versus what we've been building. And also, just bearing in mind that this is full-year guidance. And I think we would say we would love to be at or near 20% aggregate margins for the entire year, but I don't think we are ready to commit to that at this point.

嗯，我想說的是，我們——今年下半年確實有一些開放空間。我們看到，這一領域的通路強勁，活動也不斷增加。但其中一部分也是在考慮訂單的組合類型，以及我們預計即將推出的汽車類型和我們已經生產的汽車類型。而且，請記住這是全年指導。我想我們會說我們希望全年的總利潤率達到或接近 20％，但我認為我們目前還沒有準備好承諾這一點。

Okay. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

好的。謝謝大家。非常感謝。謝謝大家。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Justin Roberts for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給賈斯汀·羅伯茨 (Justin Roberts)，請他作最後發言。

Thank you very much for your time today. If you have any questions, please reach out to investorrelations@gbrx.com. Thanks and have a good day.

非常感謝您今天抽出時間。如有任何疑問，請聯絡 investorrelations@gbrx.com。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天。

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。