Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to The Greenbrier Companies' First Quarter of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes.

您好，歡迎來到 Greenbrier 公司 2023 財年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）應 Greenbrier 公司的要求，正在錄製此電話會議以供即時重播。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President and Treasurer. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.

此時，我想將會議轉交給副總裁兼財務主管 Justin Roberts 先生。羅伯茨先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, MJ. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter of fiscal 2023 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer; and Adrian Downes, Senior Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，喬丹。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們 2023 財年第一季度的電話會議。今天，Greenbrier 的首席執行官兼總裁 Lorie Tekorius 加入了我的行列； Brian Comstock，執行副總裁兼首席商務和租賃官；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Adrian Downes。

Following our update on Greenbrier's performance in Q1 and our outlook for the rest of the fiscal year, we will open up the call for questions. In addition to the press release issued this morning, additional financial information and key metrics can be found in a slide presentation posted today on the IR section of our website.

在我們更新了 Greenbrier 第一季度的業績以及我們對本財年剩餘時間的展望之後，我們將公開提問。除了今天上午發布的新聞稿外，還可以在今天發佈在我們網站 IR 部分的幻燈片演示中找到其他財務信息和關鍵指標。

I'd like to remind you that matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2023 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier.

我想提醒您，今天電話會議上討論的事項包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。在我們今天的討論中，我們將描述一些可能導致 Greenbrier 實際發生的重要因素2023 年及以後的結果與 Greenbrier 或代表 Greenbrier 所做的任何前瞻性聲明中表達的結果存在重大差異。

Good morning, Lorie.

早上好，洛里。

Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone had a good holiday season. Our first quarter results showed areas of continued strength and identifiable opportunities to improve our operations. We produced 6,800 units in the quarter, a 10% sequential increase. Of these, 2,300 units are investments held on our balance sheet to be syndicated or capitalized into Greenbrier's long-term lease fleet in a future period. Remaining customer deliveries totaled 4,800 units.

謝謝賈斯汀，大家早上好。我希望每個人都有一個愉快的假期。我們第一季度的業績顯示了持續強勁的領域和改善我們運營的可識別機會。我們在本季度生產了 6,800 台，環比增長 10%。其中，2,300 個單位是我們資產負債表上持有的投資，將在未來一段時間內聯合或資本化到 Greenbrier 的長期租賃車隊中。剩餘客戶交付量總計 4,800 件。

Revenue was in line with expectations. However, the efficiencies expected from higher production levels have not yet been fully realized. Aggregate gross margin was impacted by higher cost of outsourced components driven by inflation, transportation expense and other logistics challenges. Material shortages and delays and other lingering supply chain issues including rail congestion in Mexico created production disruptions, primarily at our manufacturing operations in Mexico.

收入符合預期。然而，更高生產水平帶來的預期效率尚未完全實現。總毛利率受到通貨膨脹、運輸費用和其他物流挑戰導致的外包組件成本上升的影響。材料短缺和延誤以及其他揮之不去的供應鏈問題（包括墨西哥的鐵路擁堵）導致生產中斷，主要是我們在墨西哥的製造業務。

We remain focused on managing our costs and supply chain. We're optimizing our internal fabrication capacity, which will improve profitability by having more control over vital supply chain and address supply chain inefficiencies.

我們仍然專注於管理我們的成本和供應鏈。我們正在優化我們的內部製造能力，這將通過更好地控制重要供應鍊和解決供應鏈效率低下問題來提高盈利能力。

Additionally, as disclosed in our earnings release, we will cease new railcar production at our Portland, Oregon facility in May, following the delivery of existing commitments. This is not a decision we've taken lightly, given our history of manufacturing railcars in Portland. However, it's an action that reflects our commitment to optimize the efficiency of our manufacturing footprint and deliver stronger margins.

此外，正如我們在收益報告中所披露的那樣，在履行現有承諾後，我們將於 5 月停止在俄勒岡州波特蘭工廠生產新的軌道車。鑑於我們在波特蘭製造軌道車的歷史，這不是我們輕率做出的決定。但是，此舉反映了我們致力於優化製造足蹟的效率並提供更高利潤的承諾。

We're undertaking a strategic evaluation of our Marine business, which operates at the same facility. We're currently engaged in a range of discussions to determine both the future of Marine operations and the overall use of the Portland facility. I remain confident we'll attain a good outcome for all of our stakeholders, which include employees, customers and shareholders.

我們正在對在同一設施運營的海事業務進行戰略評估。我們目前正在進行一系列討論，以確定海洋業務的未來和波特蘭設施的整體使用。我仍然相信，我們將為所有利益相關者（包括員工、客戶和股東）取得良好的成果。

Our Maintenance Services group continued their positive momentum and started 2023 with their strongest Q1 performance in 5 years, as initiatives focused on increasing efficiency translated to results. Our Wheel business, unfortunately, was negatively impacted by increased labor and transportation costs. We're currently working with our customers to modify contracts to address the current cost environment.

隨著專注於提高效率的舉措轉化為成果，我們的維護服務團隊繼續保持積極勢頭，並以 5 年來最強勁的第一季度業績開啟了 2023 年。不幸的是，我們的車輪業務受到勞動力和運輸成本增加的負面影響。我們目前正在與客戶合作修改合同以解決當前的成本環境。

Turning to the U.S. economy. While it continues its resilience, rising interest rates and inflation now weigh on growth. The labor market has remained strong, and we're cautiously optimistic about the industrial sector of consumer spending soften. The economy appears to be normalizing after years of unprecedented demand caused by lockdowns and subsequent government stimulus.

轉向美國經濟。雖然它繼續保持彈性，但利率上升和通貨膨脹現在對經濟增長構成壓力。勞動力市場依然強勁，我們對消費者支出疲軟的工業部門持謹慎樂觀態度。在封鎖和隨後的政府刺激措施導致多年前所未有的需求之後，經濟似乎正在正常化。

As a result, economic activity will slow with an estimated annual U.S. GDP growth rate of only 0.2% in 2023. The lower outlook projects an economic soft landing that will be characterized by a strong labor market, but with elevated inflation and interest rates throughout the year.

因此，經濟活動將放緩，預計 2023 年美國 GDP 年增長率僅為 0.2%。較低的前景預示著經濟軟著陸，其特點是勞動力市場強勁，但通貨膨脹率和利率在整個年。

Consumer spending, which makes up 2/3 of economic activity, will likely determine the timing and depth of the slowdown. We continue to believe the North American rail freight segment will be resilient through a mild recession.

佔經濟活動 2/3 的消費者支出可能會決定經濟放緩的時間和深度。我們仍然相信北美鐵路貨運部門將在溫和的衰退中保持彈性。

Rail labor negotiations in the latter months of calendar 2022 drew broad public awareness to the integral role the rail industry plays in our economy. The near-term threat of a railroad workers strike ended on December 2 with President Biden signing preventative legislation. However, challenging railroad service conditions now follow us into this new year. We're optimistic the railroads will make steady progress on their service models over the course of the year and increased hiring is an early positive step in this direction.

2022 年最後幾個月的鐵路勞資談判引起了公眾對鐵路行業在我們經濟中不可或缺的作用的廣泛認識。隨著拜登總統簽署預防性立法，鐵路工人罷工的近期威脅於 12 月 2 日結束。然而，充滿挑戰的鐵路服務條件現在跟隨我們進入新的一年。我們樂觀地認為，鐵路公司將在這一年中在其服務模式上取得穩步進展，而增加招聘是朝這個方向邁出的早期積極步驟。

Turning to our European business. Despite an energy crisis caused by the Ukrainian war, high inflation and the rising interest rates, the European economy appears to be holding up well. Energy prices are down from their peaks due to a mild winter and gas storage facilities at full capacity. German industrial output grew in the last quarter, surprising most (inaudible). And rail traffic levels in Europe are high and fleet utilization is nearly 100% for most wagon types.

轉向我們的歐洲業務。儘管烏克蘭戰爭引發了能源危機、高通脹和利率上升，但歐洲經濟似乎表現良好。由於溫和的冬季和滿負荷的儲氣設施，能源價格已從峰值回落。德國工業產出在上個季度增長，最令人驚訝（聽不清）。歐洲的鐵路交通水平很高，大多數貨車類型的車隊利用率接近 100%。

The one exception is international container traffic where volumes are down due to the sluggish Chinese economy, which continues to struggle with COVID. Our European business performed well despite the war and lingering effects of the pandemic.

一個例外是國際集裝箱運輸，由於中國經濟低迷，中國經濟繼續與 COVID 作鬥爭，國際集裝箱運輸量有所下降。儘管戰爭和流行病的揮之不去的影響，我們的歐洲業務表現良好。

And now turning to some other milestones in Q1. On November 1, we released the fourth annual edition of our ESG report, On Track Together. I'm pleased to report that Greenbrier has been identified on the list of the most responsible companies in America, according to [NewsSuite] and the global research and data firm, Statista. The third-party recognition validates Greenbrier's commitment to our values and our pursuit of responsible corporate citizenship.

現在轉向第一季度的其他一些里程碑。 11 月 1 日，我們發布了第四版 ESG 年度報告《攜手並進》。我很高興地報告，根據 [NewsSuite] 和全球研究和數據公司 Statista 的說法，Greenbrier 已被列入美國最負責任的公司名單。第三方認可證實了 Greenbrier 對我們的價值觀的承諾以及我們對負責任的企業公民的追求。

On a company level, we continue to review and optimize our portfolio to create a stronger, more sustainable Greenbrier. As announced earlier this week, we've acquired the minority interest in GBX leasing from the Longwood Group. This action bolsters Greenbrier's leasing platform, simplifies our business structure and promises long-term value to our shareholders.

在公司層面，我們繼續審查和優化我們的產品組合，以創建更強大、更可持續的 Greenbrier。正如本週早些時候宣布的那樣，我們已經從 Longwood Group 手中收購了 GBX 租賃的少數股權。此舉加強了 Greenbrier 的租賃平台，簡化了我們的業務結構，並向我們的股東承諾了長期價值。

Growing our leasing business provides us a broader, more holistic view of the railcar equipment market than that of solely an OEM builder. It also discourages the prospect of overbuilding since an asset can be on our books for over 30 years.

與單純的 OEM 製造商相比，發展我們的租賃業務使我們能夠更廣泛、更全面地了解軌道車輛設備市場。這也阻止了過度建設的前景，因為一項資產可以在我們的賬簿上保留 30 多年。

Despite the short-term operating challenges, momentum is good entering calendar 2023. With strong railcar order activity and elevated lease rates, we're confident in Greenbrier's long-term strategy and our team's execution.

儘管存在短期運營挑戰，但進入 2023 年的勢頭良好。憑藉強勁的軌道車訂單活動和較高的租賃率，我們對 Greenbrier 的長期戰略和我們團隊的執行力充滿信心。

On our last quarterly call, we mentioned we discussed the strategy further at our upcoming Investor Day. We're currently planning to hold that event in April and look forward to sharing additional details soon.

在我們上一個季度電話會議上，我們提到我們在即將到來的投資者日進一步討論了該戰略。我們目前計劃在 4 月舉辦該活動，並期待盡快分享更多詳細信息。

And now I'll turn it over to Brian to discuss the railcar demand environment and our leasing activity.

現在我將把它交給布賴恩來討論軌道車需求環境和我們的租賃活動。

Thanks, Lorie, and good morning, everyone. In Q1, Greenbrier secured new railcar orders of 5,600 units worth $700 million, a 17% increase from Q4. These orders extend production into calendar 2024. We delivered 4,800 units in the quarter, resulting in a book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x. As of November 30, Greenbrier's global backlog was 28,300 units valued at $3.4 billion, an indication of the strength of our customer relationships, and demand for Greenbrier's products and services.

謝謝，Lorie，大家早上好。第一季度，Greenbrier 獲得了價值 7 億美元的 5,600 輛新軌道車訂單，比第四季度增長了 17%。這些訂單將生產延至 2024 年。我們在本季度交付了 4,800 台，訂單出貨比為 1.2 倍。截至 11 月 30 日，Greenbrier 的全球積壓訂單為 28,300 件，價值 34 億美元，這表明我們的客戶關係強度以及對 Greenbrier 產品和服務的需求。

As a reminder, our new railcar backlog does not include 1,800 units, valued at $150 million that are part of Greenbrier's railcar conversion programs. We continue to see healthy railcar inquiries and orders for a variety of railcar types despite a slowing economy.

提醒一下，我們新的軌道車積壓訂單不包括 1,800 個單位，價值 1.5 億美元，它們是 Greenbrier 的軌道車改裝計劃的一部分。儘管經濟放緩，但我們繼續看到各種軌道車類型的健康軌道車詢價和訂單。

As we pursue commercial and leasing transactions, we are employing pricing discipline that considers current market dynamics and the (inaudible) of the economy. Railcars and storage are at a cyclical low due to demand spikes. Rail freight service challenges and retirements outpacing new railcar deliveries. From January to November of 2022, there have been approximately 50,000 railcars scrapped. This is more than delivered in all of calendar 2022. Tight railcar supply provides tailwinds for new orders in a range of railcar types.

在我們進行商業和租賃交易時，我們正在採用考慮當前市場動態和經濟（聽不清）的定價原則。由於需求激增，軌道車和存儲處於週期性低位。鐵路貨運服務的挑戰和退役超過了新軌道車的交付。從 2022 年 1 月到 11 月，大約有 50,000 輛軌道車報廢。這比 2022 年全年交付的要多。緊張的軌道車供應為一系列軌道車類型的新訂單提供了順風。

Earlier this week, we announced the buyout of the minority stake in GBX Leasing, our railcar leasing joint venture. Full ownership of the fleet furthers our leasing strategy while simplifying our business structure. We are pleased with the performance of leasing and management services in the quarter. Our lease rates on renewal are increasing by double digits, and we are extending lease terms while maintaining a high fleet utilization of 98%. Our lease fleet grew to 14,100 units at the end of the quarter. Keep in mind that a number of the units added to our lease fleet in the quarter could be syndicated over the course of the fiscal year. We intend to grow our long-term lease fleet by approximately 2,000 units this fiscal year. Fleet growth for the year is focused on railcar types that will further diversify the fleet, reducing concentration risk.

本週早些時候，我們宣布收購我們的軌道車租賃合資企業 GBX Leasing 的少數股權。車隊的完全所有權進一步推進了我們的租賃戰略，同時簡化了我們的業務結構。我們對本季度租賃和管理服務的表現感到滿意。我們的續租率以兩位數的速度增長，我們正在延長租期，同時保持 98% 的高機隊利用率。本季度末，我們的租賃機隊增至 14,100 輛。請記住，本季度添加到我們租賃機隊中的許多單位可能會在本財年期間聯合起來。我們打算在本財政年度將我們的長期租賃車隊增加約 2,000 輛。今年車隊的增長主要集中在軌道車類型上，這將進一步使車隊多樣化，降低集中風險。

We funded another $40 million of leasing term debt during the quarter and will fund the final $35 million in Q2. Additionally, we have not borrowed on the $350 million leased railcar warehouse facility, although we are evaluating financing strategy for the remaining of our lease fleet adds for fiscal '23.

我們在本季度又資助了 4000 萬美元的租賃期限債務，並將在第二季度資助最後的 3500 萬美元。此外，我們還沒有借入 3.5 億美元的租賃軌道車倉庫設施，儘管我們正在評估 23 財年剩餘租賃車隊的融資策略。

Our capital markets team syndicated 300 railcars in the quarter, a decrease from last quarter due to the timing of production activity. We continue to successfully navigate the compound challenges of higher debt costs and higher railcar pricing. However, we do see sufficient investor liquidity in the market for the duration of fiscal 2023.

由於生產活動的時間安排，我們的資本市場團隊在本季度聯合了 300 輛軌道車，比上一季度有所減少。我們繼續成功應對更高的債務成本和更高的軌道車定價的複合挑戰。但是，我們確實看到在 2023 財年期間市場上的投資者流動性充足。

With one fiscal quarter in the books, we enter calendar 2023 energized and excited by the opportunities in front of us to grow our leasing business and successfully execute our market-leading syndication strategy. All of this supports our ultimate goal to provide our customers maximum flexibility to access Greenbrier's superior products and services.

隨著一個財政季度的到來，我們進入 2023 年日曆，我們對我們面前的機會充滿活力和興奮，以發展我們的租賃業務並成功執行我們市場領先的銀團戰略。所有這些都支持我們的最終目標，即為我們的客戶提供最大的靈活性來訪問 Greenbrier 的優質產品和服務。

Adrian will now speak to the financial highlights in the quarter.

阿德里安現在將介紹本季度的財務亮點。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Before moving into the highlights of the quarter, I would like to remind everyone that quarterly financial information is available in the press release and supplemental slides, which can be found on our website.

謝謝你，布賴恩，大家早上好。在進入本季度的亮點之前，我想提醒大家，在我們的網站上可以找到新聞稿和補充幻燈片中的季度財務信息。

Our performance in Q1 was mixed with strong commercial, leasing and maintenance services performance, offset by headwinds in the manufacturing business, particularly in North America. A few items I want to speak to for the first quarter include revenue of $767 million, which decreased sequentially primarily from the production of 2,300 leased railcars on to the balance sheet.

我們在第一季度的表現與強勁的商業、租賃和維護服務表現相輔相成，但被製造業務的逆風所抵消，尤其是在北美。我想談一談第一季度的幾個項目，包括 7.67 億美元的收入，這主要是由於資產負債表上 2,300 輛租賃軌道車的生產造成的。

As a reminder, we do not recognize manufacturing revenue or margin until the railcar leaves our balance sheet. However, we do recognize lease income for railcars on our balance sheet. This activity is more of a timing variance since these railcars will either be syndicated or capitalized into our long-term lease rate later in the year.

提醒一下，在軌道車離開我們的資產負債表之前，我們不會確認製造收入或利潤。但是，我們確實在資產負債表上確認了軌道車的租賃收入。這項活動更多的是時間差異，因為這些軌道車將在今年晚些時候被聯合或資本化為我們的長期租賃利率。

Deliveries of 4,800 units include 300 units from our unconsolidated joint venture in Brazil. Aggregate gross margins of 9.1% reflect higher costs for outsourced components, material shortages and lingering supply chain issues, including rail congestion in Mexico. We are investing in internal fabrication capacity to improve our control over this aspect of our supply chain while the rail congestion continues to slowly improve.

交付量為 4,800 台，其中 300 台來自我們在巴西的未合併合資企業。 9.1% 的總毛利率反映了外包組件的成本上升、材料短缺和揮之不去的供應鏈問題，包括墨西哥的鐵路擁堵。我們正在投資內部製造能力，以改善我們對供應鏈這方面的控制，同時鐵路擁堵狀況繼續緩慢改善。

Selling and administrative expense of $53 million is 22% lower from Q4, primarily as a result of lower employee-related costs, including incentive compensation and consulting expense.

銷售和管理費用為 5300 萬美元，比第四季度減少 22%，這主要是由於與員工相關的成本降低，包括激勵薪酬和諮詢費用。

The pretax impairment charge of $24.2 million was related to long-lived assets at our Portland, Oregon manufacturing facility. This was triggered by the decision to end new railcar production at the facility after an evaluation of our production capacity requirements.

2420 萬美元的稅前減值費用與我們俄勒岡州波特蘭製造工廠的長期資產有關。這是由於在評估我們的生產能力要求後決定停止在該設施生產新的軌道車而引發的。

Excluding the impact of this impairment, adjusted net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $1.6 million generated adjusted EPS of $0.05 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $48.7 million or 6.4% of revenue. Greenbrier's liquidity was $477 million at the end of Q1, consisting of cash of $263 million and available borrowings of $214 million. Our liquidity remains ample. The primary use of our cash during the recent quarter included a continuing investment into our lease fleets and the expenditure of working capital related to the manufacturing supply chain issues we have already mentioned. As a result of the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet, we continue to be well positioned to navigate these market dynamics.

排除這一減值的影響，歸屬於 Greenbrier 的調整後淨收益為 160 萬美元，產生的調整後每股收益為 0.05 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 4870 萬美元，佔收入的 6.4%。第一季度末 Greenbrier 的流動資金為 4.77 億美元，包括現金 2.63 億美元和可用借款 2.14 億美元。我們的流動性依然充裕。最近一個季度我們現金的主要用途包括對我們的租賃車隊的持續投資以及與我們已經提到的製造供應鏈問題相關的營運資金支出。由於我們資產負債表的實力和靈活性，我們繼續處於有利地位，可以駕馭這些市場動態。

During fiscal 2023, we expect liquidity levels to increase from improvements in operating results and working capital efficiencies as well as increased borrowing capacity resulting from more railcars placed on our balance sheet. As a result, the remaining tax -- as a reminder, the remaining tax refund associated with the CARES Act of roughly $30 million is anticipated to be collected this fiscal year and will be additive to Greenbrier's available cash and borrowing capacity.

在 2023 財年，我們預計流動性水平將因經營業績和營運資本效率的改善以及資產負債表上更多軌道車導致的借貸能力增加而增加。因此，剩餘的稅款——提醒一下，與 CARES 法案相關的剩餘退稅約為 3000 萬美元，預計將在本財政年度徵收，並將增加 Greenbrier 的可用現金和借貸能力。

Greenbrier has $100 million authorized under our share repurchase program, which was just extended by our Board of Directors through January 2025. Our Board and management team remain committed to a balanced deployment of capital designed to create long-term shareholder value. We will continue to use this capacity opportunistically based on fluctuations in the price of Greenbrier shares and within the framework of our broader capital -- capital allocation plan. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we have repurchased nearly 100,000 shares.

Greenbrier 根據我們的股票回購計劃獲得了 1 億美元的授權，我們的董事會剛剛將該計劃延長至 2025 年 1 月。我們的董事會和管理團隊仍然致力於平衡資本配置，以創造長期股東價值。我們將繼續根據 Greenbrier 股票價格的波動並在我們更廣泛的資本——資本配置計劃的框架內機會主義地使用這一能力。到本季度末，我們回購了近 100,000 股。

Finally, on January 5, Greenbrier's Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.27 per share, our 35th consecutive dividend. Since reinstating the dividend in 2014, Greenbrier has returned over $400 million of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Based on yesterday's closing price, our annual dividend represents a dividend yield of approximately 3.1%.

最後，1 月 5 日，Greenbrier 董事會宣布派發每股 0.27 美元的股息，這是我們連續第 35 次派發股息。自 2014 年恢復派息以來，Greenbrier 已通過派息和股票回購向股東返還了超過 4 億美元的資本。根據昨天的收盤價，我們的年度股息代表股息收益率約為 3.1%。

Turning to our guidance and business outlook. Based on current trends and production schedules, we are maintaining Greenbrier's fiscal 2023 guidance, which includes deliveries of 22,000 to 24,000 units, including approximately 1,000 units from Greenbrier-Maxion in Brazil. Revenue between $3.2 billion and $3.6 billion.

轉向我們的指導和業務前景。根據當前趨勢和生產計劃，我們將維持 Greenbrier 2023 財年的指導方針，其中包括交付 22,000 至 24,000 台，其中約 1,000 台來自巴西的 Greenbrier-Maxion。收入在 32 億美元至 36 億美元之間。

Selling and administrative expenses of approximately $220 million to $230 million. Gross capital expenditures of approximately $240 million in leasing and management services, $80 million in manufacturing and $10 million in maintenance services. Proceeds of equipment sales are expected to be approximately $110 million.

銷售和管理費用約為 2.2 億美元至 2.3 億美元。租賃和管理服務的資本支出總額約為 2.4 億美元，製造業支出為 8000 萬美元，維護服務支出為 1000 萬美元。設備銷售收益預計約為 1.1 億美元。

Our now wholly-owned lease fleet will increase by at least 2,000 units in fiscal 2023. We will see how the leasing market evolves throughout the year, and we'll be flexible and opportunistic in our growth strategy for the fleet.

到 2023 財年，我們現在全資擁有的租賃機隊將增加至少 2,000 輛。我們將看到租賃市場全年如何演變，我們將在機隊增長戰略中保持靈活和機會主義。

Gross margins, we expect full year consolidated margins will be in the low double digits. Our bottom line results in Q1 do not fully characterize the improvements and positive momentum occurring in our business. We expect our performance to improve in the coming quarters as we hit our stride, and we see the benefits of tough decisions taken in Q1.

毛利率，我們預計全年綜合利潤率將處於低兩位數。我們在第一季度的底線結果並未完全體現我們業務中出現的改進和積極勢頭。我們預計我們的業績將在未來幾個季度有所改善，因為我們取得了長足進步，並且我們看到了第一季度做出的艱難決定的好處。

Our management team is experienced with a demonstrated track record of success. Our robust backlog provides strong visibility and stability over the coming years, and we look forward to improved results as we progress through the year.

我們的管理團隊經驗豐富，擁有成功的記錄。我們強大的積壓工作在未來幾年提供了強大的可見性和穩定性，我們期待隨著我們在這一年的進步而取得更好的結果。

And now we will open it up for questions.

現在我們將公開提問。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Justin Long with Stephens.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Justin Long 和 Stephens。

I wanted to start with a question on the supply chain. Just given the trends, there seem to be a little bit disappointing relative to expectations. Any updated thoughts on the supply chain recovery going forward? And for the ceasing of railcar manufacturing operations at Portland and the increased capacity internally as it relates to fabrication, is there any way to put a number around the cost impact that could have going forward?

我想從一個關於供應鏈的問題開始。就趨勢而言，與預期相比似乎有點令人失望。關於未來供應鏈恢復的任何最新想法？對於波特蘭軌道車製造業務的停止以及與製造相關的內部產能的增加，是否有任何方法可以對未來可能產生的成本影響給出一個數字？

So I would just say on taking in and parsing through some of that...

所以我只想說接受和解析其中的一些......

It was like 3 questions in one, Justin.

這就像 3 個問題合二為一，賈斯汀。

Starting with the supply chain. I think as we have ramped up our activities as well as other industrial manufacturers that has put more pressure on the supply chain that we rely on, particularly in Mexico, which we recognized and have taken the action to start in-sourcing initially the vital components that we need for building railcars and making certain that we are achieving the kind of cost that we need to. So we're not happy with what happened in the first quarter, but we are taking action, and we expect that new fabrication facility to be online early in our fourth fiscal quarter.

從供應鏈開始。我認為，隨著我們和其他工業製造商的活動增加，這給我們所依賴的供應鏈帶來了更大的壓力，尤其是在墨西哥，我們認識到這一點並已採取行動開始最初對重要組件進行內購我們需要建造軌道車並確保我們正在實現我們需要的那種成本。所以我們對第一季度發生的事情不滿意，但我們正在採取行動，我們預計新的製造設施將在第四財季初上線。

So things are changing and moving. I think as we talked about it, we would expect this to be probably a couple of hundred basis points of margin impact as we move through the fiscal year associated with supply chain.

所以事情在變化和移動。我認為，正如我們所討論的那樣，隨著我們度過與供應鏈相關的財政年度，我們預計這可能會對利潤率產生幾百個基點的影響。

With the Portland, Oregon facility, not sure that we would quantify a facility-by-facility financial results. You do see the asset impairment that we took that's associated with the railcar piece of our business, evaluating the assets that are dedicated to railcar production and adjusting those to an appraised value and we are still in the process of evaluating our Marine business to determine what comes of that.

對於俄勒岡州波特蘭的設施，我們不確定我們是否會量化逐個設施的財務結果。你確實看到了我們採取的與我們業務的軌道車部分相關的資產減值，評估專用於軌道車生產的資產並將其調整為評估價值，我們仍在評估我們的海洋業務以確定什麼由此而來。

And then the last question, now I don't remember. We're not going to be using the Gunderson facility for any of the subcomponents. This is in-sourcing that will happen near our facilities in Mexico.

然後是最後一個問題，現在我不記得了。我們不會對任何子組件使用 Gunderson 工具。這是將發生在我們墨西哥工廠附近的內包。

Got it. I think you tackled everything. And just to clarify one point, when you mentioned a couple of hundred basis points of improvement in gross margins from the supply chain, is that manufacturing gross margins? And is that just solely related to the supply chain getting better? Or is that incorporating what you're doing on the fabrication side?

知道了。我想你解決了一切。澄清一點，當你提到供應鏈毛利率提高幾百個基點時，是製造業毛利率嗎？這是否僅僅與供應鏈變得更好有關？還是將您在製造方面所做的工作結合起來？

So Justin, that is on manufacturing, and that is solely related to what we're doing on the internal fabrication piece. The improvement or, I guess, I would say, lack of disruption on the supply chain going forward is a little harder to quantify, but I would say that, that's a similar, if not maybe even larger number ultimately.

所以賈斯汀，這是關於製造的，這僅與我們在內部製造件上所做的事情有關。改進，或者，我想，我想說，未來供應鏈沒有中斷更難量化，但我會說，這是一個相似的數字，如果不是最終可能更大的話。

Okay. That's helpful. And then last thing I wanted to ask about was just the railcar order environment. Could you break down orders in the quarter between North America and international? And maybe, Brian, you could chime in on the sustainability of this kind of 5,000 to 6,000 orders per quarter order flow going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想問的最後一件事就是軌道車訂購環境。您能否分解北美和國際之間的季度訂單？也許，布賴恩，你可以談談這種每季度 5,000 到 6,000 份訂單的可持續性嗎？

Yes. Justin, it's Brian. About 95% of the orders in the queue were for North America, so substantially North America. We're already -- December was a stronger month than what we typically see because of the holidays. So we're already off to a good start. I would say the cadence continues to be very similar to what we've seen in the last 3, 4 quarters in North America. We're not seeing any falloff at all at this stage.

是的。賈斯汀，是布萊恩。隊列中大約 95% 的訂單是針對北美的，因此基本上是北美。我們已經 - 12 月是一個比我們通常看到的更強勁的月份，因為假期。所以我們已經有了一個良好的開端。我想說節奏仍然與我們在過去 3、4 個季度在北美看到的非常相似。在這個階段我們根本沒有看到任何衰減。

Next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Maybe you could talk a little bit about the manufacturing margins. Typically, we see a fall-off in second quarter. I don't know if given the closing of Portland, it sounds like that doesn't occur until May or some of the other moves you're making, should the -- are there going to be increased costs given the fabrication moves as well as still getting the supply chain online until that's up and running in the fourth quarter? So do we see an even extended dip in 2Q on margins? Maybe just walk us through, Adrian, your thoughts or Lorie, on kind of seasonality and impact from the moves you're making?

也許你可以談談製造利潤率。通常，我們會在第二季度看到下滑。我不知道是否考慮到波特蘭的關閉，這聽起來好像要到 5 月或您正在採取的其他一些舉措才會發生，考慮到製造舉措，成本是否會增加在第四季度啟動並運行之前仍然讓供應鏈在線？那麼我們是否會看到第二季度利潤率進一步下降？也許只是讓我們了解一下，阿德里安，你的想法或洛里，關於你所做的動作的季節性和影響？

And I'll start, and then Adrian or Justin can chime in. But the good point, Ken, that yes, seasonally, second -- our second fiscal quarter, which includes a lot of holidays does sometimes have an impact on our margins. So there's -- it's probably a mixed bag as you think about how we step through the year. We're not going to get into quarter-by-quarter margin expectations. We do expect there to be, though, an overall improvement as we move across each of the quarters of this fiscal year.

我會開始，然後阿德里安或賈斯汀可以插話。但是好的一點，肯，是的，季節性的，第二個 - 我們的第二個財政季度，其中包括很多假期，有時會對我們的利潤率產生影響。因此，當您考慮我們如何度過這一年時，這可能是一個混合包。我們不會進入逐季度的利潤率預期。不過，我們確實希望在本財年的每個季度都有整體改善。

Regarding rail production at Gunderson. We had a full quarter of production in the first quarter at our Portland facility, and that will continue through May. So we will have those 3 quarters, which I would say is, it's neutral to a bit of a drag on margins, but that's where I would say that kind of shakes out. And any additional costs that are associated with ceasing those productions or the transition of our workforce, we will make certain to capture those separately and communicate them separately.

關於 Gunderson 的鐵路生產。第一季度，我們在波特蘭工廠進行了整整四分之一的生產，並將持續到五月。所以我們將有這 3 個季度，我想說的是，它對利潤率有一點拖累是中性的，但這就是我要說的那種動蕩的地方。以及與停止這些生產或我們的勞動力過渡相關的任何額外成本，我們將確保單獨捕獲這些成本並單獨傳達它們。

And Ken, also the investment in bringing the fabrication in-house is something that will be capitalized. Yes, that would be something that will provide long-term benefits. So you wouldn't see necessarily a higher operating expense from that. You would see overall market -- margin improvement.

肯，在內部製造方面的投資也將被資本化。是的，這將提供長期利益。因此，您不一定會因此而看到更高的運營費用。你會看到整個市場 - 利潤率提高。

And finally, Ken, one other piece on to that as we progress through the year, we will see the increased syndication activity, which is typically beneficial to overall company margins throughout the year.

最後，肯，隨著我們這一年的進展，我們將看到銀團活動的增加，這通常有利於公司全年的整體利潤率。

Great. And then I guess, in the past, you've given kind of the balance of production and what you expect, maybe it sounded like Lorie, you threw out at the end of your last answer that there was no slowdown in the orders. Maybe talk about how back-end loaded production will be and the move, I guess, away from Portland to Mexico. Is that -- obviously, we had a huge surprise on cost this quarter given all the things you mentioned. Is that just determination that it's just too costly in the U.S. and moving everything to Mexico? And does that mean anything for the U.S. assets from ARI that you acquired in the U.S.? Or was this Portland specific?

偉大的。然後我想，在過去，你已經給出了生產的平衡和你的期望，也許這聽起來像 Lorie，你在最後一個答案的末尾說訂單沒有放緩。也許談談後端負載生產將如何進行，以及我想從波特蘭轉移到墨西哥。是嗎 - 顯然，考慮到你提到的所有事情，本季度我們對成本感到非常驚訝。是否只是確定在美國成本太高而將所有東西都轉移到墨西哥？這對你們在美國收購的 ARI 的美國資產有什麼意義嗎？還是這個波特蘭特有？

So this was Portland specific. We are not intending to relocate all of our manufacturing to Mexico. There's definitely a lot of benefits and value of having a U.S. manufacturing footprint. Our -- the facilities that we acquired was announced in 2019. They continue to perform well.

所以這是波特蘭特有的。我們不打算將我們所有的生產轉移到墨西哥。擁有美國製造業足跡肯定有很多好處和價值。我們的——我們收購的設施於 2019 年宣布。它們繼續表現良好。

And as you think through deliveries and the impact from ceasing the production at the Portland facility, they're running at a very, very modest pace. So I would say it's not something you're going to really notice as -- and looking at the quarterly delivery activity, particularly as in this first quarter, we had a larger number of units that we capital -- are not capitalized, but are held as investments on our balance sheet, which will be syndicated in future periods, which will then become deliveries, right. So that will offset the wrapping up of rail production at Gunderson.

當你考慮交付和停止在波特蘭工廠生產的影響時，它們的運行速度非常非常適中。所以我想說這不是你真正會注意到的事情——看看季度交付活動，尤其是在第一季度，我們有更多的單位投入資本——沒有資本化，但在我們的資產負債表上作為投資持有，將在未來期間聯合起來，然後成為交付，對吧。因此，這將抵消 Gunderson 鐵路生產的結束。

The next question comes from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

Lorie, I want to go back to your last point, those cars on balance sheet. I know that you guys mentioned the syndication obviously would be beneficial. But is there a way to estimate or how you're thinking about what you're going to hold on in your own lease (inaudible) I imagine that impacts the margin -- or the profitability as we're thinking through the year? Just any thoughts there?

Lorie，我想回到你的最後一點，資產負債表上的那些汽車。我知道你們提到聯合組織顯然是有益的。但是，有沒有一種方法可以估計或您如何考慮您將在自己的租約中持有什麼（聽不清）我想這會影響利潤率 - 或者我們正在考慮全年的盈利能力？有什麼想法嗎？

Well, I'll get Brian to talk to that because he's working really closely as we evaluate kind of which pieces of equipment we hold on to and which we syndicate.

好吧，我會讓 Brian 談談這個，因為在我們評估我們持有哪些設備以及我們聯合組織的設備時，他正在密切合作。

Yes. Allison, what we're -- our stated goal, just to maybe restate it is to hold about 2,000 cars a year on our balance sheet. I think in Q1, we originated about that many a little bit more. What we're doing now is we're going through the process of identifying which ones we want from a concentration and return perspective, and then we'll begin to move some of those into the syndication channel. So Q1 was heavy in lease product. That's one of the impacts, but that will start to get released throughout the year. And our plan from a leasing perspective is again to keep about 2,000 cars throughout the year.

是的。艾莉森，我們是什麼——我們既定的目標，只是重申一下，我們的資產負債表上每年要持有大約 2,000 輛汽車。我認為在第一季度，我們發起了更多的活動。我們現在正在做的是，我們正在經歷從集中和回報的角度確定我們想要哪些的過程，然後我們將開始將其中一些轉移到聯合渠道。所以第一季度的租賃產品很重。這是影響之一，但它將在全年開始釋放。而我們從租賃的角度來看，我們的計劃又是全年保有2000輛左右。

And just from a production perspective, there are -- we will be producing cars onto the balance sheet and then moving cars off the balance sheet through syndication throughout the year. This wasn't a onetime thing. It's just more a matter of -- it was more heavily weighted in this one quarter.

從生產的角度來看，我們將在資產負債表上生產汽車，然後全年通過聯合將汽車從資產負債表上移走。這不是一次性的事情。這只是一個問題——它在這個季度的權重更大。

Yes. I guess I was just -- because I think it doesn't -- maybe we can talk about this offline, Justin. The impact of the cars that you're putting in your own fleet, you don't necessarily recognize the profit. So I was just thinking if there was an impact we should be thinking through as you determine what you're keeping and what you're syndicating out.

是的。我想我只是——因為我認為它沒有——也許我們可以離線討論這個問題，賈斯汀。您投入自己車隊的汽車的影響，您不一定會認識到利潤。所以我只是在想，如果有影響，我們應該在確定要保留的內容和要聯合發布的內容時仔細考慮。

You are exactly correct, Allison. We do eliminate that revenue and margin from the manufacturing business when they are on the balance sheet, and when they go into the long-term fleet, then it's just a matter of recognizing the lease income over the period of the lease. So again, we can clean up any details offline, but yes, you are right about that.

你完全正確，艾莉森。當它們在資產負債表上時，我們確實從製造業務中消除了收入和利潤，當它們進入長期機隊時，這只是在租賃期間確認租賃收入的問題。因此，我們可以再次離線清理任何細節，但是，是的，你是對的。

And I would say this is something that is unknown, right? As we are building equipment that we will capitalize on our balance sheet and hold long term, we absolutely acknowledge that we are foregoing the profit in the moment, but believe that having that repeatable revenue, cash flow, tax advantage cash flow is good as a balance to our strong manufacturing operation.

我會說這是未知的，對吧？由於我們正在建造我們將利用我們的資產負債表並長期持有的設備，我們絕對承認我們正在放棄目前的利潤，但相信擁有可重複的收入、現金流、稅收優勢現金流是很好的平衡我們強大的製造業務。

Certainly. And then I know, Lorie, you mentioned revenue was in line with your expectations, but it sounds like production did slip a little bit to the right because of the supply chain. Is there any way to quantify what that number was in terms of production level that you guys had that kind of maybe got pushed to the right and is probably more back half weighted here, just any thoughts?

當然。然後我知道，Lorie，你提到收入符合你的預期，但聽起來由於供應鏈，生產確實有點向右下滑。有沒有什麼方法可以量化你們生產水平方面的數字是多少，你們可能被推到了右邊，並且可能在這裡更偏向一半，有什麼想法嗎？

Sorry, you asked Lorie, but I was going to say a few, like, kind of 300 to 500 is probably what slipped from the quarter from that perspective. The piece that was a little more punitive though was the disruption and the inability to maintain consistency of productions on certain lines throughout the quarter.

抱歉，你問過 Lorie，但我想說一些，比如，從那個角度來看，本季度可能下滑了 300 到 500。不過，更具懲罰性的部分是中斷和無法在整個季度的某些生產線上保持生產的一致性。

Right, which impacts overhead absorption. So you just have more of that overhead falling through not being used efficiently.

對，這會影響開銷吸收。所以你只會有更多的開銷因為沒有被有效地使用而落空。

The next question comes from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Bascome Majors 和 Susquehanna。

A lot of questions on margin, given the surprise. But Lorie, you opened your comments with a look at the macro and a talk about some of the softening indicators from a top-to-down perspective. Is that a message that we think we're kind of getting to the top of the cycle or more of the plateau type environment that you've talked about with maybe not as high highs and lower lows of the railcar cycle, as we've known for much of the last 20 years? Can you just unpack the message here from a macro perspective and kind of your strategic views as you look out beyond a quarter or 2, maybe 2, 3 years and how you're playing the business?

關於保證金的問題很多，給出了驚喜。但是 Lorie，您從宏觀角度和從上到下的角度討論了一些軟化指標來打開您的評論。這是一個信息，我們認為我們正在進入周期的頂部或更多的高原類型環境，你談到的可能不像軌道車週期的高點和低點，因為我們已經在過去 20 年的大部分時間裡廣為人知？你能否從宏觀角度和你的戰略觀點中解構這裡的信息，因為你展望未來一個季度或 2 年，也許 2 年，3 年以及你如何開展業務？

Well, happy new year Bascome. Yes, I think at least everything that we are seeing both internally and from looking at external forecasters, it certainly appears that we're going to be in more of a plateau when it comes to new railcar production. While that might disappoint some who like rollercoasters, we're kind of excited that we didn't actually have the huge run-up that some other sectors did. So therefore, I don't believe we're going to have quite that accelerated downfall either.

好吧，巴斯科姆新年快樂。是的，我認為至少我們在內部和從外部預測員那裡看到的一切，在新的軌道車生產方面，我們肯定會處於更穩定的狀態。雖然這可能會讓一些喜歡過山車的人失望，但我們很高興我們實際上並沒有像其他一些行業那樣取得巨大的成功。因此，我認為我們也不會有那麼快的衰退。

It will be more modest. I think there is a lot of pent-up demand when it comes to rail freight movements. A lot of shippers have had to move their product in different ways. The railroads continue to embargo and not provide the kind of service that their customers need. So as they're able to add workforce, those of us who support the railroads and the rail freight industry, believe that, that -- those loadings are going to go up, the performance is going to improve and that will make for good demand.

會比較低調。我認為在鐵路貨運方面有很多被壓抑的需求。許多托運人不得不以不同的方式運送他們的產品。鐵路繼續禁運，不提供客戶需要的服務。因此，當他們能夠增加勞動力時，我們這些支持鐵路和鐵路貨運業的人相信，這些裝載量將會增加，性能將會提高，這將帶來良好的需求.

The thing that's difficult is, is there a particular movement or car type change that can sometimes create those spikes in demand that you -- is more behind some of those run-ups.

困難的是，是否存在特定的運動或汽車類型的變化，有時會導致需求激增，而您 - 更落後於其中一些增長。

Again, we don't -- I don't see that in my crystal ball right now. And I think that having the steady and diversified activity that we're seeing on manufacturing is good both for us, for a manufacturing -- well, maybe it's a little bit more difficult for our colleagues in manufacturing because it's a lot easier to just build 1 or 2 car types as opposed to 8 different car types, but it does provide us a lot of benefits in the lease fleet that we're building to make certain that we've got good diversity, good quality customers, and it's good for our operating lessor customers and our syndication partners who are also looking for diversity in the equipment that they buy from us.

再一次，我們沒有——我現在沒有在我的水晶球中看到這一點。而且我認為我們在製造業中看到的穩定和多樣化的活動對我們和製造業都有好處 - 好吧，也許這對我們製造業的同事來說有點困難，因為它更容易建立1 種或 2 種汽車類型，而不是 8 種不同的汽車類型，但它確實為我們正在建設的租賃車隊提供了很多好處，以確保我們擁有良好的多樣性、優質的客戶，這對我們的經營出租人客戶和我們的聯合組織合作夥伴也在尋求從我們這裡購買的設備的多樣性。

Thank you for that. Can you talk a little bit about cash flow? Maybe this is one for Adrian. I know it's a little bit different now that you're investing more and more in the way that you account for your lease fleet. But do you have some thoughts on operating cash flow maybe before that leaf investment -- lease, I'm sorry, lease investment this year? And if there will be a working capital releases you get through some of these supply chain disruptions that have been sporadic but material multiple times in the last few quarters?

謝謝你。你能談談現金流嗎？也許這是給 Adrian 的。我知道現在有點不同，因為你越來越多地投資於你對租賃車隊的核算方式。但是，在葉投資之前，您是否對運營現金流有一些想法 - 對不起，今年的租賃投資？如果在過去幾個季度中多次發生零星但重大的供應鏈中斷，是否會釋放營運資金？

Yes. We would expect cash flow to be positive for the balance of the year on an overall basis. So a few of the major drivers, syndication activity should generate cash. And you can see we invested in putting a lot on our balance sheet in Q1. That cadence would be different to rest of the year. We would have improved operating results that will also help. And as you mentioned, we would expect to see some working capital efficiencies as we navigate these issues that we had in Q1, which are more short term.

是的。我們預計今年餘下時間的現金流總體上為正。因此，在一些主要驅動因素中，辛迪加活動應該會產生現金。你可以看到我們在第一季度的資產負債表上投入了大量資金。這種節奏將與今年餘下時間不同。我們本來可以改善經營業績，這也會有所幫助。正如您所提到的，我們希望在解決第一季度遇到的這些問題時看到一些營運資本效率，這些問題更短期。

We have invested a lot compared to historical periods in working capital as we've ramped up. And yes, we should start to see some efficiencies just from normal course as well as from resolving some of these sporadic issues that impacted Q1.

隨著我們的增加，與歷史時期相比，我們在營運資金方面投入了大量資金。是的，我們應該開始看到正常過程中的一些效率以及解決影響第一季度的一些零星問題。

The next question comes from Matt Elkott with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Matt Elkott 和 Cowen。

Sorry if my question has been asked as I had some connection issues on my end here. I want to go back to Gunderson. Lorie and Justin and the team, how much of the decision to close the facility has to do with maybe chronic access to labor issues even before COVID? And if that was one of the considerations, can you talk about your access to labor in the Northwest versus in other parts of the country in the Midwest and the South?

抱歉，如果我的問題被問到，因為我在這端遇到了一些連接問題。我想回到岡德森。 Lorie 和 Justin 以及團隊，關閉設施的決定在多大程度上與甚至在 COVID 之前就可能長期接觸勞工問題有關？如果這是考慮因素之一，您能否談談您在西北部與美國其他地區（中西部和南部）獲得勞動力的情況？

Sure, Matt. Thank you for that. I don't think that we are unique in talking about having workforce attraction and retention issues. The Northwest is a little bit different as well. It's not a heavy industrial area. So it's a tough area to attract and retain a workforce. I will say that we do have a very solid and dedicated workforce that many of which have been with us for a very long time.

當然，馬特。謝謝你。我不認為我們在談論勞動力吸引力和保留問題方面是獨一無二的。西北也有點不同。不是重工業區。因此，這是一個很難吸引和留住勞動力的領域。我要說的是，我們確實擁有一支非常紮實和敬業的員工隊伍，其中許多人已經和我們在一起很長時間了。

So as I said in my prepared remarks, this was not a decision that we took lightly. We know that Gunderson is something that we've had for all of our existence, right? So this is tough. Our facilities in Arkansas, again, similar to other businesses struggle to attract and retain folks within a very difficult working environment. And so we're thinking about how we make adjustments to where we source folks, how we pay, what our conditions are thinking through the hours in a day that someone works or the fact that more people today want to work part time as opposed to -- sorry, that was -- I'm sure that came through in my voice. I'm old, and it's confusing for me that people have a hard time working a full day.

因此，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，這不是我們輕易做出的決定。我們知道 Gunderson 是我們一生都擁有的東西，對吧？所以這很難。我們在阿肯色州的設施，與其他企業一樣，在非常困難的工作環境中努力吸引和留住員工。因此，我們正在考慮如何調整我們尋找人員的地點、我們的支付方式、我們的條件在一天中有人工作的幾個小時內思考什麼，或者今天更多的人想要兼職工作而不是-- 抱歉，那是-- 我敢肯定我的聲音是這樣說的。我老了，我很困惑人們很難工作一整天。

But -- so we're looking at all the different things that we can do, the levers that we can pull to attract and retain a workforce that I think are great family wage jobs. Now I've got so worked up over workforce. I forgot what the rest of your question was.

但是——所以我們正在研究我們可以做的所有不同的事情，我們可以利用哪些槓桿來吸引和留住我認為是很好的家庭工資工作的勞動力。現在我已經為工作而煩惱了。我忘了你剩下的問題是什麼。

I just was hoping to get some comparison between access to labor between the different regions. I mean, I think you answered that the Northwest may be a bit more challenging, I guess, than the rest of the country. But I also want to kind of ask you about what your -- I know it's difficult to say -- to put a number to capacity -- annual capacity numbers because the cycles differ and the types of equipment produced affects that number. But after the closure of Gunderson, how much annual capacity would you say you would have in the U.S.?

我只是希望對不同地區之間的勞動力獲取情況進行一些比較。我的意思是，我想你回答說西北地區可能比全國其他地區更具挑戰性。但我也想問你關於你的 - 我知道很難說 - 把一個數字放在產能上 - 年產能數字，因為周期不同，生產的設備類型會影響這個數字。但是在關閉 Gunderson 之後，您認為美國的年產能是多少？

I don't -- I think as we've talked about our capacity numbers, and I don't, Justin will have to correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think that as we've thrown out what I would "a theoretic capacity" for the North American market. We've probably not been for the last several years, assuming large numbers when it comes to the Portland facility just because we have been operating at a more modest rate.

我不——我認為我們已經討論了我們的容量數字，我沒有，如果我錯了，賈斯汀將不得不糾正我，但我不認為，因為我們已經拋出了什麼我會為北美市場提供“理論容量”。在過去的幾年裡，我們可能沒有去過，假設波特蘭工廠的人數很多，只是因為我們一直以更溫和的速度運營。

There was one other thing that I thought about in your -- the earlier part of your question and thinking about our decision for ceasing railcar production in Portland. Part of it is also where our customers are and where our competition is. And as we need to be able to be competitive in the broader market, cost-wise for our customers, there has been kind of this transition to the middle part of the country and South which is also very good from a logistics and transportation perspective to get our equipment to the customers that want to use it.

在你的問題中，我還想到了另一件事——你問題的前半部分，以及我們關於停止在波特蘭生產軌道車的決定。其中一部分也是我們的客戶所在的地方以及我們的競爭對手所在的地方。由於我們需要能夠在更廣闊的市場上具有競爭力，對我們的客戶來說是成本明智的，所以這種向該國中部和南部的過渡從物流和運輸的角度來看也是非常好的將我們的設備提供給想要使用它的客戶。

So that also weighed into the decision that a location in the Pacific Northwest does have some difficulties as you've seen more and more freight moving to East Coast ports and the like.

因此，這也影響了太平洋西北地區的一個位置確實存在一些困難的決定，因為你已經看到越來越多的貨物轉移到東海岸港口等。

Yes. Makes sense. And then I know most industries are having supply chain issues, but it seems a bit more pronounced in the case of the railcar industry, Lorie. Do you -- I mean, first of all, is that the case? And second, why is that? I mean we've heard that maybe because of a more limited pool of suppliers on the component side. But are there any other factors that are specific to the railcar industry that are making the supply chain issues subside at a slower rate than maybe some other industrial areas?

是的。說得通。然後我知道大多數行業都存在供應鏈問題，但在軌道車行業 Lorie 的情況下似乎更為明顯。你——我的意思是，首先，是這樣嗎？其次，這是為什麼？我的意思是我們聽說這可能是因為組件方面的供應商數量有限。但是，是否有任何其他特定於軌道車行業的因素正在使供應鏈問題以比其他一些工業領域更慢的速度消退？

It is a little bit head scratching. I would say that it's likely because we and some of the others in the rail space have been ramping up production. So we are putting some pressure on that supply chain that they didn't have over the last 2 years.

這有點讓人頭疼。我會說這可能是因為我們和鐵路領域的其他一些人一直在提高產量。因此，我們正在對他們過去兩年沒有的供應鏈施加一些壓力。

I think, quite honestly, in the rail freight OEM space, we've been -- overall, I'm sure that my procurement folks are going to kick me after this. But I would say compared to the rest of the country, we haven't had the big disruptions. So I think it's as we and others in the industrial space ramped up over the last 4 to 6 months, it's really putting that pressure on that supply chain to be able to be responsive.

我認為，老實說，在鐵路貨運 OEM 領域，我們一直——總的來說，我確信我的採購人員會在這之後踢我。但我要說的是，與該國其他地區相比，我們沒有受到太大的干擾。所以我認為，隨著我們和工業領域的其他人在過去 4 到 6 個月中的加速發展，這確實給供應鏈帶來了壓力，使其能夠做出響應。

Got it. And then just one final question on margins. This is taking a long-term view. All the changes that you're making, Gunderson and then the leasing. Does it change your outlook -- long-term outlook for what kind of gross margin you can get?

知道了。然後是關於邊距的最後一個問題。這是著眼長遠。你所做的所有改變，Gunderson，然後是租賃。它是否會改變您的前景——您可以獲得什麼樣的毛利率的長期前景？

I think these are all steps that we need to take on the journey to having solid double-digit low -- in the teens, margins on a regular basis is to look through our organization and determine where we can strain more efficiencies and costs for the business to generate that sort of return.

我認為這些都是我們在實現兩位數低點的過程中需要採取的所有步驟——在十幾歲的時候，定期檢查我們的組織並確定我們可以在哪些方面提高效率和成本產生這種回報的業務。

So from my perspective, I and the leadership team, we look across the organization, and we're identifying the areas where we can start to take some action, and we're taking that action. Some of it is going to take a little bit of time. But we'll do our best to be transparent with you and our shareholders about how we're -- what -- the steps that we're taking, but it's all towards that longer-term goal of having those steady margins. And I would say, truly higher highs and higher lows.

所以從我的角度來看，我和領導團隊，我們審視整個組織，我們正在確定我們可以開始採取一些行動的領域，我們正在採取行動。其中一些需要一點時間。但我們會盡最大努力對您和我們的股東保持透明，說明我們正在採取什麼措施，但這一切都是為了實現擁有穩定利潤率的長期目標。我會說，真正更高的高點和更高的低點。

So having the lease fleet will help, I believe, to take some of the trough out of the low cycles when it comes to railcar manufacturing. Potentially, we have a couple of years here of some steady demand on that side of the business, which will allow us to really look through the operations and see where we can continue to optimize them.

因此，我相信，擁有租賃車隊將有助於在軌道車製造方面走出低谷期。潛在地，我們在這裡有幾年對業務這一方面的一些穩定需求，這將使我們能夠真正審視運營並了解我們可以在哪些方面繼續優化它們。

The last question today comes from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

今天的最後一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。

Appreciate the detail on some of the actions you're taking in the near term. On the last call, you suggested earnings would have maybe a 40% first half, 60% second half weighting. As you think about it now, should we be thinking that's more 25-75? Or what do you expect for an earnings cadence for the year?

了解您近期採取的一些行動的細節。在上次電話會議上，您建議收益可能有 40% 的上半年權重，60% 的下半年權重。現在想想，我們應該認為 25-75 更合適嗎？或者您對今年的盈利節奏有何期望？

I think that's more realistic given the performance in Q1.

考慮到第一季度的表現，我認為這更現實。

The 25-75?

25-75 歲？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And Lorie, you've had to deal with some tough operational conditions for a while. You're obviously taking actions to address that. For 2023, what is -- can you just talk about your priority list? Is it really fixing gross margin first? Is it driving syndication activity or market share?

好的。 Lorie，你不得不應對一些艱難的運營條件有一段時間了。你顯然正在採取行動來解決這個問題。對於 2023 年，您能談談您的優先事項列表嗎？真的是先固定毛利率嗎？它是在推動聯合活動還是市場份額？

And then second part to that question, maybe you answered this to some degree. But longer term, what do you see as the key to driving shareholder value creation? What's that message that you're pushing to the team?

然後是該問題的第二部分，也許您在某種程度上回答了這個問題。但從長遠來看，您認為推動股東價值創造的關鍵是什麼？你要向團隊傳達的信息是什麼？

We're trying to steal our thunder from April, Steve. You've all my secrets right now. I think -- I would say, yes, my #1 focus is improving our gross margins getting to that steady margin that I know that we can do. And then we will look to how we're optimizing the services side of our business, which -- the biggest piece of that is leasing and figuring out how we do that at a modest pace, balancing it with our customer needs for -- on the syndication side and the operating lessor side, this is something that Greenbrier has done for years.

史蒂夫，我們正試圖搶走四月的風頭。你現在知道了我所有的秘密。我想——我會說，是的，我的第一重點是提高我們的毛利率，達到我知道我們可以做到的穩定利潤率。然後我們將研究如何優化我們業務的服務方面，其中最重要的部分是租賃，並弄清楚我們如何以適度的速度做到這一點，平衡它與我們的客戶需求——聯合組織方面和經營出租人方面，這是 Greenbrier 多年來所做的事情。

We have been able to manage relationships with a wide variety of customers and do this in a way that I think can be beneficial for our shareholders as well as for our customers. So it's not going to be a revolution. It's going to be an evolution of how we're going to continue to build off of the foundation.

我們已經能夠管理與各種各樣的客戶的關係，並且以一種我認為對我們的股東和客戶都有利的方式來做到這一點。所以這不會是一場革命。這將是我們將如何繼續建立基礎的演變。

Looking at some of the investments that we've made over time are where we have value tied up on the balance sheet and how we can either get that -- those investments on our balance sheet to generate better returns or to offload them and focus on the things that are our priorities.

看看我們隨著時間的推移所做的一些投資是我們在資產負債表上綁定了價值的地方，以及我們如何才能獲得這些投資——這些投資在我們的資產負債表上是為了產生更好的回報，或者是卸載它們並專注於我們優先考慮的事情。

Got it. And I'm sure you'll talk more in April about all that. In terms -- for the near term on the gross margin, what is the biggest bucket of value creation or margin expansion? Is it optimizing the manufacturing or the internal fabrication capacity? Is it just footprint? How much does mix play into that? Like what levers are you pulling first to drive that near-term outcome?

知道了。而且我相信你會在四月份更多地談論這一切。就近期毛利率而言，最大的價值創造或利潤擴張是什麼？是優化製造還是內部製造能力？只是足跡嗎？混合發揮了多少作用？比如你首先拉動什麼槓桿來推動近期結果？

I think definitely, it is the supply chain and in-sourcing some of those vital components that we need to make certain that we are managing those costs. Bill Krueger, who is now running our manufacturing operation has been working closely with the teams on the ground to really think through if we have certain capacity within our operations? Are we utilizing our capacity to its highest potential and for the most vital components? And really thinking through that a lot more strategically, particularly as we're building a broader range of products that requires a broader ability to provide those subcomponents.

我認為肯定的是，我們需要確保我們正在管理這些成本的是供應鍊和一些重要組件的內包。 Bill Krueger，現在負責我們的製造業務，一直在與當地團隊密切合作，以真正考慮我們是否在我們的業務中具有一定的能力？我們是否將我們的能力發揮到最大潛力並用於最重要的組成部分？並且真正從戰略上考慮更多，特別是當我們正在構建範圍更廣的產品時，這些產品需要更廣泛的能力來提供這些子組件。

Do you think you have the manufacturing capacity, the process equipment that you need? Or would this require investment in machinery to be able to in-source some of that?

你認為你有製造能力，你需要的工藝設備嗎？或者這是否需要對機器進行投資才能採購其中的一部分？

It will take some modest investments, but that's part of what's in our guidance right now.

這將需要一些適度的投資，但這是我們目前指南中的一部分。

That's in the CapEx right now. Okay.

現在在資本支出中。好的。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Justin Roberts for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Justin Roberts 的閉幕詞。

Thank you very much for your time and attention today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to us at investorrelations@gbrx.com. Have a great day. Thank you.

非常感謝您今天的時間和關注。如果您有任何後續問題，請通過 investorrelations@gbrx.com 與我們聯繫。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。