Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Greenbrier Companies Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Each analyst should limit themselves to only 2 questions. And for that time, all lines will be in a listen-only mode. At the request of the Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President and Treasurer. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.

您好，歡迎參加 Greenbrier Companies 2023 財年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的演講結束後，我們將進行問答環節。每個分析師應該只提出 2 個問題。屆時，所有線路都將處於僅監聽模式。應 Greenbrier 公司的要求，我們正在錄製本次電話會議以便即時重播。現在，我想將會議交給副總裁兼財務主管賈斯汀·羅伯茨先生。羅伯茨先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter and fiscal 2023 conference call. Today, I'm joined by Lorie Tekorius, Greenbrier's CEO and President; Brian Comstock, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer; and Adrian Downes, Senior Vice President and CFO. Following our update on Greenbrier's performance in Q3 and our outlook for fiscal 2023, we will open up the call for questions. In addition to the press release issued this morning, additional financial information and key metrics can be found in a slide presentation posted today on the IR section of our website.

謝謝你，安東尼。大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季度和 2023 財年電話會議。今天，Greenbrier 首席執行官兼總裁 Lorie Tekorius 也加入了我的行列。 Brian Comstock，執行副總裁兼首席商務和租賃官；以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Adrian Downes。在我們更新 Greenbrier 第三季度的業績以及我們對 2023 財年的展望之後，我們將開放提問。除了今天早上發布的新聞稿外，您還可以在我們網站的 IR 部分今天發布的幻燈片演示中找到更多財務信息和關鍵指標。

Matters discussed on today's conference call include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Throughout our discussion today, we will describe some of the important factors that could cause Greenbrier's actual results in 2023 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of Greenbrier. And with that, I will hand the call over to Lorie.

今天的電話會議討論的事項包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。在今天的討論中，我們將描述一些可能導致 Greenbrier 2023 年及以後的實際結果出現重大差異的重要因素來自 Greenbrier 或代表 Greenbrier 所做的任何前瞻性聲明中表達的內容。接下來，我會將電話轉交給洛里。

Thank you, Justin, and good morning, everyone. I hope everyone's enjoying the start to summer. Yesterday, hopefully, you saw that we announced that Pat Meyer will join the Greenbrier Board of Directors. I'd like to publicly welcome Pat to our Board and look forward to working with Pat to get his perspective on the freight rail market as well as his insights into the U.S. Mexico activity.

謝謝賈斯汀，大家早上好。我希望每個人都享受夏天的開始。昨天，希望您看到我們宣布 Pat Meyer 將加入 Greenbrier 董事會。我謹公開歡迎帕特加入我們的董事會，並期待與帕特合作，了解他對貨運鐵路市場的看法以及他對美國墨西哥活動的見解。

As many of you know, Greenbrier hosted our inaugural Investor Day on April 12. For those of you who are unable to attend in person or via webcast, the replay will be available on our website for a short period of time, and the full presentation will be available forever at the SEC website. And during the 3-hour event, we touched on 4 areas: first, our leadership position in our markets, second, our diverse manufacturing capabilities and a long track record of innovation; third, our strong lease origination capabilities and differentiated syndication model; and lastly, the consistent improvement in our financial performance across economic cycles.

正如你們許多人所知，Greenbrier 於 4 月 12 日主辦了我們的首屆投資者日活動。對於那些無法親自或通過網絡直播參加的人，我們將在短時間內在我們的網站上提供重播，並提供完整的演示文稿將永遠在 SEC 網站上提供。在3個小時的活動中，我們談到了4個領域：第一，我們在市場中的領導地位；第二，我們多元化的製造能力和長期的創新記錄；第三，我們強大的租賃發起能力和差異化的銀團模式；最後，我們的財務業績在各個經濟周期中持續改善。

We also laid out Greenbrier's strategy to increase margins in our Manufacturing segment, grow our recurring revenue base through lease fleet investments and follow a capital allocation strategy focused on returning value to shareholders. And while it's only been 2 months since the Investor Day, I'm pleased to share the progress we've made in each of these areas. In some cases, we're ahead of our own internal schedules and in others for laying the foundation to execute our strategic plan. And as I briefly recap results for this quarter, I'll highlight some achievements towards these goals with the important caveat that we do not expect our progress to be linear, and our strategic plan and targets contemplate a 5-year time horizon.

我們還制定了 Greenbrier 的戰略，以提高製造部門的利潤率，通過租賃機隊投資擴大我們的經常性收入基礎，並遵循專注於為股東回報價值的資本分配策略。雖然距離投資者日才過去兩個月，但我很高興與大家分享我們在各個領域取得的進展。在某些情況下，我們會提前完成自己的內部計劃，而在其他情況下，我們會為執行我們的戰略計劃奠定基礎。在我簡要回顧本季度的業績時，我將重點介紹實現這些目標所取得的一些成就，但需要注意的是，我們預計我們的進展不會是線性的，而且我們的戰略計劃和目標考慮的是 5 年的時間範圍。

So turning to the quarter. We generated revenue of $1 billion. Our deliveries totaled 6,600 units, down from Q2 due to the timing of syndication activity. And while revenue dipped slightly compared with the prior quarter, aggregate gross margin improved by 190 basis points to 12.3%. Increasing our aggregate gross margin to the mid-teens by fiscal 2026 is one of the targets we provided during the Investor Day, and we're pleased to report the progress on that front.

所以轉向季度。我們創造了 10 億美元的收入。由於銀團活動的時間安排，我們的交付量總計 6,600 台，較第二季度有所下降。儘管收入較上一季度略有下降，但總毛利率提高了 190 個基點，達到 12.3%。到 2026 財年將我們的總毛利率提高到十幾歲左右是我們在投資者日期間提出的目標之一，我們很高興地報告這方面的進展。

Gross margins in manufacturing of 9.6% increased 260 basis points compared with the prior quarter and some of the efficiencies we discussed during the Investor Day materialized more quickly than expected. And while there will be unforeseen issues that occurred during some quarters, we're confident that many of the efficiencies achieved thus far will continue. In particular, supply chain issues that have been a recent headwinds seem to be largely in the review mirror. And as we've discussed previously, we're bringing fabrication in-house for basic primary parts and some assemblies as part of our make-versus-buy strategy. The first phase of this work will be completed in the fourth quarter that we're in today, and we expect to achieve our full cost savings target of $50 million to $55 million in fiscal 2025.

製造業的毛利率為 9.6%，與上一季度相比增加了 260 個基點，我們在投資者日討論的一些效率的實現速度比預期更快。儘管某些季度會出現不可預見的問題，但我們相信，迄今為止所取得的許多效率將繼續下去。特別是，最近出現的不利因素供應鏈問題似乎在很大程度上受到了審查。正如我們之前所討論的，我們正在內部製造基本主要零件和一些組件，作為我們自製與外購策略的一部分。這項工作的第一階段將於今天第四季度完成，我們預計在 2025 財年實現 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元的全部成本節約目標。

Additionally, in the quarter, we completed the sale of Gunderson Marine in Portland as part of our capacity rationalization plan that's expected to result in annual savings of $15 million to $20 million. These are costs that are getting taken out of the system permanently. Gunderson Rail completed its last railcar on May 18, after shipping over 110,000 units since 1985. I'm extremely pleased to share that Gunderson's new owner will retain many of the hard-working production workforce at that facility.

此外，在本季度，我們完成了波特蘭 Gunderson Marine 的出售，作為我們產能合理化計劃的一部分，預計每年可節省 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。這些成本將被永久地從系統中剔除。 Gunderson Rail 自 1985 年以來已運送了超過 110,000 輛火車，並於 5 月 18 日完工。我非常高興地告訴大家，Gunderson 的新東家將保留該設施中許多辛勤工作的生產勞動力。

Now moving across the business. Maintenance Services continued the positive momentum seen since the start of the year despite ongoing labor challenges. Their margins continue to improve sequentially on improved pricing, volume and the operating efficiencies we've been focused on establishing over the last 2 years, expecting a strong end to the year from this segment. And as Brian will discuss shortly, we've left the foundation for our expanded leasing strategy. This is an important component of our multiyear plan and is expected to result in the doubling of recurring revenues within the next 5 years. The market backdrop for leasing remains very positive, and we're in a great position to execute our plans.

現在跨業務。儘管勞動力面臨持續挑戰，維護服務仍延續了年初以來的積極勢頭。由於我們在過去兩年中一直致力於提高定價、銷量和運營效率，他們的利潤率繼續提高，預計該細分市場將在今年年底實現強勁增長。正如布萊恩很快將討論的那樣，我們已經為擴大租賃戰略奠定了基礎。這是我們多年計劃的重要組成部分，預計將在未來 5 年內使經常性收入翻一番。租賃的市場背景仍然非常樂觀，我們處於執行計劃的有利位置。

Our returning to capital to shareholders is an integral part of our capital allocation strategy. I'm pleased to report that our Board increased our quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.30 per share yesterday. Our dividend has doubled since its reinstatement in 2014 and illustrates the importance the Board places on this activity. The broader economic background is somewhat mixed with several factors creating economic crosscurrents. Despite the ongoing economic murkiness, our outlook in North America remains unchanged with railcar deliveries to be at or near replacement levels for the next few years.

我們向股東返還資本是我們資本配置策略的一個組成部分。我很高興地報告，我們的董事會昨天將季度股息提高了 11%，達到每股 0.30 美元。自 2014 年恢復股息以來，我們的股息已增加了一倍，這表明了董事會對這項活動的重視。更廣泛的經濟背景在某種程度上與造成經濟逆流的多種因素混合在一起。儘管經濟持續低迷，我們對北美的前景保持不變，未來幾年鐵路車交付量將達到或接近替代水平。

In Europe, there's softness in demand for intermodal accents, but this is being more than offset by the bulk rail freight sector, where we continue to see strong demand across liven types. Factor of aside, at the company level, we continue to take actions to create a stronger, more sustainable Greenbrier. We're confident in the long-term strategy we set forth during our Investor Day and our team's ability to execute on that strategy, which is focused on the things we can control and not reliant on an overly optimistic demand scenario. I look forward to sharing our progress toward the targets on future calls. And now I'll turn it over to Brian to discuss the rail car demand environment and our leasing activity.

在歐洲，對多式聯運的需求疲軟，但這被散裝鐵路貨運行業所抵消，我們繼續看到各種活躍類型的強勁需求。除此之外，在公司層面，我們繼續採取行動創建一個更強大、更可持續的 Greenbrier。我們對投資者日期間提出的長期戰略以及我們團隊執行該戰略的能力充滿信心，該戰略專注於我們可以控制的事情，而不是依賴於過於樂觀的需求情景。我期待在未來的電話會議上分享我們在實現目標方面取得的進展。現在我將把它交給布萊恩討論軌道車輛的需求環境和我們的租賃活動。

Thank you Lorie. Greenbrier secured new railcar orders of 4,600 units worth $650 million. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we received orders for 7,900 units valued at $975 million. Orders continue to be broad-based and diverse across most railcar types with the exception of intermodal. As of May 31, Greenbrier's global backlog was 23,400 units valued at $2.9 billion. This figure excludes the 7,900 units ordered after the end of the quarter. As a reminder, our new railcar backlog does not include 1,000 units valued at $85 million that are part of Greenspan's railcar conversion program.

謝謝你洛麗。 Greenbrier 獲得了 4,600 輛新的軌道車訂單，價值 6.5 億美元。截至本季度末，我們收到了 7,900 份訂單，價值 9.75 億美元。除聯運外，大多數軌道車類型的訂單仍然廣泛且多樣化。截至 5 月 31 日，Greenbrier 的全球積壓訂單為 23,400 套，價值 29 億美元。該數字不包括本季度末後訂購的 7,900 台。提醒一下，我們新的軌道車積壓訂單不包括格林斯潘軌道車改裝計劃中價值 8,500 萬美元的 1,000 輛。

Despite weakness in freight volumes, the railcar demand environment remained stable due to pent-up replacement demand and tight supply. And we continue to see healthy railcar inquiries and orders for a variety of railcar types. We are pleased with the performance of leasing and management services in the quarter. Our lease rates on renewals are increasing by double digits, and we are extending lease terms while maintaining a high fleet utilization of nearly 99%.

儘管貨運量疲軟，但由於被壓抑的替換需求和供應緊張，軌道車需求環境保持穩定。我們繼續看到各種軌道車類型的健康軌道車詢價和訂單。我們對本季度租賃和管理服務的表現感到滿意。我們的續租率正在以兩位數的速度增長，我們正在延長租賃期限，同時保持近 99% 的高機隊利用率。

In terms of the underlying leases, the durations are staggered to both mitigate the impact of cyclicality and create upside potential through favorable renewals. We do have a high volume of renewals in 2024, resulting from the portfolio we purchased in September of 2021, and we are actively working to renew these leases ahead of their expiration. As we described during the Investor Day, we intend to grow more steadily over the coming years. and we have committed to invest $300 million per year for each of the next 5 years on a net basis. We remain focused on railcar types that will maintain a balanced fleet portfolio and reduce concentration risk. I want to emphasize that we will only invest in the right assets with the right lease terms in counterparties.

就基礎租賃而言，期限是錯開的，以減輕週期性的影響，並通過有利的續約創造上行潛力。由於我們在 2021 年 9 月購買的投資組合，我們在 2024 年確實有大量續租，並且我們正在積極努力在這些租約到期之前續租。正如我們在投資者日所述，我們打算在未來幾年實現更加穩定的增長。我們承諾在未來 5 年每年淨投資 3 億美元。我們仍然專注於能夠保持平衡的車隊組合併降低集中風險的軌道車輛類型。我想強調的是，我們只會投資於交易對手具有正確租賃條款的正確資產。

During Q3, we funded $54 million of debt from our nonrecourse leased railcar warehouse facility, backed by $72 million of assets and have funded a total of about $120 million through the warehouse over the last 2 quarters. As you may have seen in our press release this morning, we recently upsized our warehouse facility to $550 million from the prior $350 million borrowing capacity to support our growth plans. The terms of the upsized facility are unchanged.

在第三季度，我們通過無追索權租賃軌道車倉庫設施為 5400 萬美元的債務提供了資金，並以 7200 萬美元的資產為後盾，並在過去兩個季度通過倉庫總共提供了約 1.2 億美元的資金。正如您可能在今天早上的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們最近將倉庫設施從之前的 3.5 億美元借款能力擴大到 5.5 億美元，以支持我們的增長計劃。擴大設施的條款沒有改變。

Fourth quarter fleet activity in the warehouse facility will continue to be leveraged at a 75% debt-to-equity ratio. We are regularly evaluating our financing strategies as we prepare to meaningfully increase the size of our lease fleet with the goal of more than doubling recurring revenue in the next 5 years. As you heard during the Investor Day from William Glenn, who head Greenbrier's European operations, we are building a leasing capabilities in Europe. Our entry into the European leasing is well ahead of plan and the pipeline for leasing deals is robust, including finalizing our first syndication agreement.

第四季度倉庫設施的車隊活動將繼續以 75% 的債務股本比率進行槓桿化。我們正在定期評估我們的融資策略，因為我們準備大幅增加租賃機隊的規模，目標是在未來 5 年內將經常性收入增加一倍以上。正如您在投資者日期間從 Greenbrier 歐洲業務負責人 William Glenn 那裡聽到的那樣，我們正在歐洲建立租賃能力。我們進入歐洲租賃業務的時間遠遠提前於計劃，租賃交易的渠道也很強勁，包括敲定我們的第一份銀團協議。

Our capital markets team syndicated 800 railcars in the quarter, a decrease from Q2, reflecting the timing of production schedules. This market remains liquid and a strong appetite for the asset class and our team is preparing for another busy year in 2024. Within management services, we continue to shift our commercial focus and business development efforts towards customers whose needs are more closely aligned with our core competencies as we seek to deepen relationships within our customer base. This is an exciting time for Greenbrier as we work to optimize our manufacturing capabilities and grow the leasing and management business.

我們的資本市場團隊在本季度聯合發行了 800 輛鐵路車，比第二季度有所減少，這反映了生產計劃的時間安排。該市場仍然具有流動性，對資產類別的需求強勁，我們的團隊正在為 2024 年又一個忙碌的一年做準備。在管理服務範圍內，我們繼續將商業重點和業務開發工作轉向與我們的核心需求更緊密結合的客戶我們尋求加深與客戶群的關係時的能力。對於 Greenbrier 來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻，因為我們致力於優化我們的製造能力並發展租賃和管理業務。

We have been clear with our growth initiatives, and I look forward to updating you on them as we execute on our strategic plan. With that said, I'll hand the call over to Adrian, who will now speak to the financial highlights in the quarter.

我們已經明確了我們的增長計劃，我期待著在我們執行戰略計劃時向您通報最新情況。話雖如此，我將把電話轉給阿德里安，他現在將談論本季度的財務亮點。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Before moving into the highlights of the quarter, I would like to remind everyone that quarterly financial information is available in the press release and supplemental slides, which can be found on our website.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早上好。在進入本季度的亮點之前，我想提醒大家，季度財務信息可在新聞稿和補充幻燈片中找到，這些信息可以在我們的網站上找到。

Our performance in the quarter was strong across all business segments with improved aggregate gross margin and adjusted EPS in Q3 compared to Q2. Following the highlights of the call, note for the quarter include second consecutive quarter with revenues of $1 billion or higher, deliveries of 6,600 units was the second highest quarter for deliveries since the fourth quarter of 2019 and includes 200 units from our unconsolidated joint venture in Brazil. Aggregate gross margin of 12.3% was 190 basis points higher than the prior quarter, resulting from stronger margins in the Manufacturing and Maintenance Services segment attributed to improved operating efficiencies in both segments and higher pricing and volumes in the Maintenance Services segment. We expect the operating momentum will continue as a result of the initiatives described during the Investor Day in April.

我們本季度所有業務部門的業績均表現強勁，與第二季度相比，第三季度的總毛利率和調整後每股收益有所提高。在電話會議的要點之後，本季度的註釋包括連續第二個季度收入達到或超過 10 億美元，交付量為 6,600 台，是自 2019 年第四季度以來交付量第二高的季度，其中包括來自我們位於 2019 年第四季度的非合併合資企業的 200 台。巴西。總毛利率為 12.3%，比上一季度高出 190 個基點，這是由於製造和維護服務部門的利潤率提高，這歸因於這兩個部門運營效率的提高以及維護服務部門的定價和銷量的提高。我們預計，由於四月份投資者日所描述的舉措，運營勢頭將持續下去。

Selling and administrative expense of $63 million is 7% higher from Q2 primarily attributed to an increase in employee-related costs due to higher incentive compensation expense as a result of increased profitability. We had a pretax charge of $17 million related to the sale and exit of our Gunderson Marine business in Portland. The consolidated tax rate of 12.9% was primarily a result of favorable discrete items in Mexico. Excluding the impact of the Gunderson loss on sale and exit related costs, adjusted net earnings attributable to Greenbrier of $34 million generated adjusted EPS of $1.02. Additionally, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was about $97 million or 9.3% of revenue.

銷售和管理費用為 6,300 萬美元，比第二季度增加 7%，這主要是由於盈利能力增加導致激勵薪酬費用增加，導致員工相關成本增加。我們因出售和退出波特蘭 Gunderson Marine 業務而產生了 1700 萬美元的稅前費用。 12.9%的綜合稅率主要是由於墨西哥有利的離散項目的結果。排除 Gunderson 損失對銷售和退出相關成本的影響，調整後歸屬於 Greenbrier 的淨利潤為 3400 萬美元，調整後每股收益為 1.02 美元。此外，本季度調整後的 EBITDA 約為 9700 萬美元，佔收入的 9.3%。

Turning to liquidity. Greenbrier's operating cash flow turned positive on a year-to-date basis due to a strong third quarter and -- sorry, due to strong third quarter results of nearly $98 million, reflecting improvements to operating performance and working capital efficiencies. Our liquidity was $665 million at the end of Q3, consisting of cash of $321 million and available borrowings of $344 million. The primary use of our cash during the recent quarter included the repayment of $95 million of short-term borrowings on our domestic revolving credit facility as well as $32 million of share repurchases.

轉向流動性。由於第三季度的強勁表現，Greenbrier 的運營現金流今年迄今轉為正值，而且抱歉，由於第三季度業績強勁，接近 9800 萬美元，反映出運營業績和營運資金效率的改善。截至第三季度末，我們的流動資金為 6.65 億美元，其中包括 3.21 億美元現金和 3.44 億美元可用借款。最近一個季度我們現金的主要用途包括償還國內循環信貸安排的 9500 萬美元短期借款以及 3200 萬美元的股票回購。

As we finish 2023, we expect Q4 liquidity levels to remain strong as operating momentum and working capital efficiencies continue to improve. As highlighted during our Investor Day in April, one of Greenbrier's strategic initiatives as a balanced approach to capital allocation. An integral part of this strategy is to return capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. During the third quarter, Greenbrier repurchased 1.2 million shares for $32 million. Between the second and third quarter, Greenbrier repurchased a total of 1.7 million shares for $49 million, of which $3 million was part of the prior authorization program.

到 2023 年結束時，我們預計隨著運營勢頭和營運資本效率的持續改善，第四季度的流動性水平將保持強勁。正如我們在 4 月份的投資者日期間所強調的那樣，Greenbrier 的戰略舉措之一是採用平衡的資本配置方法。該戰略的一個組成部分是通過股息和股票回購向股東返還資本。第三季度，Greenbrier 以 3200 萬美元回購了 120 萬股股票。第二季度至第三季度期間，Greenbrier 總共回購了 170 萬股股票，斥資 4900 萬美元，其中 300 萬美元是事先授權計劃的一部分。

Under the current share repurchase program, we have $54 million remaining of the $100 million authorization that extends through January of 2025. In addition to significant share repurchase activity, the Board increased the dividend by 11% to $0.30 per share, representing our 37th consecutive dividend. Based on yesterday's closing price, our annual dividend represents a yield of approximately 3.7%. Since 2014 Greenbrier returned over $470 million of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our board and management team remain committed to a balanced deployment of capital designed to create long-term shareholder value.

根據當前的股票回購計劃，我們的 1 億美元授權中還剩 5,400 萬美元，授權期限將持續到 2025 年 1 月。除了重大的股票回購活動外，董事會還將股息增加了 11% 至每股 0.30 美元，這是我們連續第 37 次派發股息。根據昨天的收盤價，我們的年度股息收益率約為 3.7%。自 2014 年以來，Greenbrier 通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了超過 4.7 億美元的資本。我們的董事會和管理團隊仍然致力於平衡資本配置，以創造長期股東價值。

Turning to our guidance and business outlook. Based on current trends and production schedules, we are raising Greenbrier's fiscal 2023 guidance, which includes the following: our fiscal '23 delivery guidance has increased to 25,000 to 26,000 units, including approximately 1,000 units from Greenbrier-Maxion in Brazil. We are also increasing our fiscal year 2023 revenue guidance to be between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion. Selling and administrative expenses at approximately $230 million to $235 million, and gross capital expenditures of approximately $280 million in leasing and management services, $90 million in manufacturing and $15 million in maintenance services and proceeds of equipment sales are expected to be approximately $76 million. Consolidated gross margin is unchanged, and we expect full year consolidated margin percent to be in the low double digits.

轉向我們的指導和業務前景。根據當前趨勢和生產計劃，我們正在提高 Greenbrier 的 2023 財年指導，其中包括以下內容：我們的 23 財年交付指導已增加至 25,000 至 26,000 台，其中包括來自巴西 Greenbrier-Maxion 的約 1,000 台。我們還將 2023 財年的收入指導提高至 38 億至 39 億美元。銷售和管理費用約為 2.3 億至 2.35 億美元，租賃和管理服務的資本支出總額約為 2.8 億美元，製造費用為 9,000 萬美元，維護服務費用為 1,500 萬美元，設備銷售收益預計約為 7,600 萬美元。綜合毛利率保持不變，我們預計全年綜合毛利率將保持在較低的兩位數水平。

In closing, I'd like to reiterate a few points. We are confident in our long-term strategy, as highlighted at our Investor Day and believe the best is yet to come. Our management team is incredibly experienced with a demonstrated track record of success. We are supported by a robust backlog, which provides strong visibility and stability over the coming years. Our liquidity and balance sheet strength allows for opportunistic growth. And as we look to strongly finish our year, we are well positioned to drive shareholder value in 2024. Now we will open up for questions.

最後，我想重申幾點。正如我們在投資者日所強調的那樣，我們對我們的長期戰略充滿信心，並相信最好的尚未到來。我們的管理團隊經驗豐富，擁有良好的成功記錄。我們得到了強大的積壓訂單的支持，這在未來幾年提供了強大的可見性和穩定性。我們的流動性和資產負債表實力允許機會主義增長。當我們希望以強勁的勢頭結束這一年時，我們已做好充分準備，在 2024 年推動股東價值。現在我們將開放提問。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Again, we ask that analysts limit them post to only 2 questions. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to compile the roster. Our first question will come from Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. You may now go ahead.

我們現在開始問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們再次要求分析師將他們的帖子限制為僅 2 個問題。此時，我們將暫時暫停以整理名單。我們的第一個問題將由 Matt Elkott 和 TD Cowen 提出。現在你可以繼續了。

Thank you. Good morning. Lorie, can you maybe first a quick clarification. What was it specifically that made it possible to achieve those manufacturing efficiencies ahead of plan?

謝謝。早上好。 Lorie，你能先快速澄清一下嗎？具體是什麼使得能夠提前實現這些製造效率？

A great question, Matt. I would say it's tremendous hard work and focus by the men and women in our manufacturing operations. As you'll recall, last quarter, we talked about second quarter, we talked about the headwinds that we were struggling with, with supply chain and our focus on how to reverse that trend. This is one of the areas where we're seeing improvement ahead of what we thought internally we would be able to achieve as not just Greenbrier, but as many companies have seen over the last several years, supply chain can be one of those things that can be a persistent headwind or it can pop up. So I'm just pleased with the focus and attention and execution in our manufacturing group.

這是一個很好的問題，馬特。我想說，這是我們製造業務中的男女員工的巨大努力和專注。您可能還記得，上個季度，我們談到了第二季度，我們談到了我們在供應鏈方面遇到的阻力，以及我們對如何扭轉這一趨勢的關注。這是我們看到的改進領域之一，超出了我們內部認為我們能夠實現的目標，不僅是 Greenbrier，而且正如許多公司在過去幾年中所看到的那樣，供應鏈可能是那些可以實現的目標之一。可能是持續的逆風，也可能是突然出現的。因此，我對我們製造團隊的專注、關注和執行力感到滿意。

Got it. And then were there any big orders from a single customer in the 4,600 in the quarter or the 7,900 after?

知道了。那麼本季度的 4,600 個或之後的 7,900 個中是否有來自單個客戶的大訂單？

I will let Brian chime in, in a minute if he like. But actually -- I mean, yes, we have several large orders, but nothing that was really a multiyear or something that drove it that was strong diverse demand across a number of customers, car types, commodities and a nice healthy combination of lease originations as well as direct sales. Brian, is there anything you'd like to add?

如果布萊恩願意的話，我會讓他插話一下。但實際上 - 我的意思是，是的，我們有幾個大訂單，但沒有什麼是真正的多年期或推動它的東西，即對許多客戶、汽車類型、商品的強烈多樣化需求以及租賃起源的良好健康組合以及直銷。布萊恩，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think you hit it, Lorie. Matt, basically, it's kind of the normal blocking and tackling. We had several large orders, not just 1 or 2, but also we had kind of the diversity of what we see every day. Some of it was pent up from earlier in the quarter, which we thought would come in, in Q3 and in the previous quarter is now coming in now. but it's just kind of the run of the mill, no multiyear orders, just your kind of standard fare as part of the order cadence in order diversity.

不，我想你成功了，洛瑞。馬特，基本上，這是一種正常的阻擋和鏟斷。我們有幾個大訂單，不僅僅是 1 或 2 個，而且我們每天看到的東西也很多樣化。其中一些是本季度早些時候被壓抑的，我們原以為會在第三季度和上一季度出現，但現在已經出現了。但這只是一種常規操作，沒有多年訂單，只是作為訂單多樣性中訂單節奏的一部分的標準票價。

Thanks. That's good to know, Brian. And there was a 10% sequential step-up in the ASP. How much of this was mix versus other factors? Because after the -- for the 900 after Q3, I think the ASP goes back down to being 4% below 2Q.

謝謝。很高興知道，布萊恩。 ASP 環比上漲了 10%。與其他因素相比，其中有多少是混合因素？因為在第三季度之後的 900 美元之後，我認為 ASP 會回落至比第二季度低 4%。

Yes. I think the mix is -- it's a better mix. We're starting to see a little bit more automotive products as well as tank cars into the mix. As you know, one of the focuses I think the industry has been to continue to move pricing into a better place as well. And so I think you're seeing a combination of a better mix as well as continued uplift in pricing.

是的。我認為這種混合是一種更好的混合。我們開始看到更多的汽車產品以及坦克車加入其中。如您所知，我認為該行業的重點之一是繼續將定價推向更好的位置。因此，我認為您會看到更好的產品組合以及價格的持續上漲。

Okay. And just one last one, if I may. More often than not, your first fiscal half is lower for everything basically deliveries margins, earnings. Do you expect this to be the case for fiscal '24, even as this really is a highly anomalous cycle?

好的。如果可以的話，就只有最後一件事。通常情況下，你的上半財年基本上所有的交付利潤率和收益都會較低。即使這確實是一個高度異常的周期，您預計 24 財年也會出現這種情況嗎？

So I'll jump in, and then I can let others join I'm sorry to kind of have a little bit of a chuckle because you're right, we do tend to like in the second half and are a little bit muted for a variety of reasons in the first half, that has not gone without our own acknowledgment of that trend. And we are very focused on how can we make certain that quarter after quarter, we continue continuous improvement from orders, deliveries, margins, cash flow. So you are going to see that sort of focus. Again, it's hard to perfectly predict if there's going to be something that pops up. But we're not planning to have the first half of next year be soft. We're planning for fiscal '24 to be better than 2023, and we're working to make that be continuous improvement quarter after quarter.

所以我會加入，然後我可以讓其他人加入，我很抱歉有點笑，因為你是對的，我們確實傾向於喜歡下半場，並且有點沉默上半年由於多種原因，我們也承認這一趨勢。我們非常關注如何確保每個季度我們都能在訂單、交付、利潤和現金流方面持續不斷改進。所以你會看到這種焦點。同樣，很難完美地預測是否會突然出現一些東西。但我們不打算讓明年上半年表現疲軟。我們計劃 24 財年比 2023 年更好，並且我們正在努力使這一目標逐季持續改進。

Got it. Thank you very much Lorie. Thanks Brian.

知道了。非常感謝洛麗。謝謝布萊恩。

Thanks Matt.

謝謝馬特。

Our next question will come from Justin Long with Stephens. You may now go ahead.

我們的下一個問題將來自賈斯汀·朗和斯蒂芬斯。現在你可以繼續了。

Thanks and good morning. Maybe to follow up on that last point you made, Lorie, when you look at the industry projections for railcar production in 2024 on a calendar basis, a lot of those forecasts are down a decent amount. So I'm curious if you could talk about your view on just broader industry production as we move into your fiscal '24. And based on the backlog you have today, including the orders you've just received here in June. Can you speak to your level of visibility to production in 2024 at this point?

謝謝，早上好。也許是為了跟進您提出的最後一點，Lorie，當您按日曆查看 2024 年鐵路車產量的行業預測時，很多預測都大幅下降。因此，我很好奇，在我們進入 24 財年之際，您是否可以談談您對更廣泛的行業生產的看法。根據您今天的積壓訂單，包括您六月份剛剛收到的訂單。您能否談談您對 2024 年生產的可見程度？

I would say for 2024, we've got really good visibility. We still do have some pockets where we have open production but we feel very comfortable about the ability to fill up that space. Right now, what we're seeing in North America is pretty steady production coming out of where we're going to close out the fourth quarter. We don't have any big ramp-ups or any big ramp downs. We'll have some adjustments, but some of the recent orders that we've received really give us great visibility and continuity on a number of our production lines. The other interesting thing that if you're just looking at the North American statistics, you also have to look at Europe, where we're continuing to focus on how we can serve that market and we're focused on ramping up production in Europe as well. It's not quite the same volume as you would see here in North America, but that will be one of the benefits to our deliveries in our fiscal 2024.

我想說，到 2024 年，我們的能見度非​​常好。我們仍然有一些開放生產的空間，但我們對填補這些空間的能力感到非常滿意。目前，我們在北美看到的產量相當穩定，我們將在第四季度結束時實現這一目標。我們沒有任何大的上升或任何大的下降。我們將進行一些調整，但我們最近收到的一些訂單確實為我們的許多生產線提供了良好的可見性和連續性。另一件有趣的事情是，如果你只看北美的統計數據，你還必須看看歐洲，我們將繼續專注於如何服務該市場，並且我們專注於提高歐洲的產量以及。這與您在北美看到的數量不太一樣，但這將是我們 2024 財年交付的好處之一。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And I guess shifting to manufacturing gross margins. It was good to see the sequential improvement. Could you speak to how much of that came in North America versus Europe? And then as we think about manufacturing gross margins going forward, what's your comfort that we'll continue to see some sequential momentum moving into fourth quarter and early next year?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。我想轉向製造業毛利率。很高興看到連續的改進。您能說說其中有多少來自北美，哪些來自歐洲？然後，當我們考慮未來的製造業毛利率時，您對我們將繼續看到第四季度和明年初的一些連續勢頭有何信心？

Hey, Justin. This is Justin. I think we saw improvement both in North America and Europe in the quarter. North America has a disproportionate weighting there just from a size perspective, but both operations performed very well and improved sequentially. And then going forward, we would expect that to continue, maybe not quite to the same extent, but we do see improvement in Q4 and into fiscal 2024, which is kind of hard to believe we're talking about already, but such is life.

嘿，賈斯汀。這是賈斯汀。我認為本季度我們在北美和歐洲都看到了改善。僅從規模角度來看，北美地區的權重不成比例，但這兩項業務都表現良好，並且逐年改善。然後展望未來，我們預計這種情況會持續下去，也許不會達到同樣的程度，但我們確實看到第四季度和 2024 財年的改善，這有點難以置信我們已經在談論了，但這就是生活。

Okay. Good to hear. I'll leave it at that. Thanks for your time.

好的。很高興聽到。我就這樣吧。謝謝你的時間。

Thanks, Justin.

謝謝，賈斯汀。

Our next question will come from Bascome Majors with Susquehanna. You may now go ahead.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴斯科姆梅傑斯和薩斯奎哈納。現在你可以繼續了。

Thank you. As we look forward, I realize we're still away from next fiscal year, but do you have a sense of the cadence of when you put cars on the balance sheet and off the balance sheet in the manufacturing business?

謝謝。當我們展望未來時，我意識到我們距離下一個財年還很遙遠，但是您是否了解製造業務中將汽車列入資產負債表和將汽車列入資產負債表外的節奏？

I think at this point, it's -- we're not necessarily ready to get into that much detail. I would say that we will -- we do see a relatively consistent pattern of that each quarter over the next 4 to 5 quarters based on production schedules.

我認為在這一點上，我們不一定準備好了解那麼多細節。我想說的是，我們確實會根據生產計劃在接下來的 4 到 5 個季度中看到每個季度相對一致的模式。

And now that most of the supply chain issues in Mexico and the U.S. are behind you, fingers crossed. Is Europe accretive to the overall manufacturing margin? Are those pretty even?

現在墨西哥和美國的大部分供應鏈問題都已經過去了，祈禱吧。歐洲是否會增加整體製造利潤？那些漂亮嗎？

I would say, yes, it is accretive. As Justin said, it's accretive even when you take into consideration the fact of the weighting, I mean North America is one of the largest great railcar markets in the world. So it's going to be hard to -- for Europe to up in that, but they're definitely accretive to our margins.

我會說，是的，它是增值的。正如賈斯汀所說，即使考慮到權重這一事實，它也是增值的，我的意思是北美是世界上最大的鐵路車市場之一。因此，對於歐洲來說，要在這方面取得進展會很困難，但它們肯定會增加我們的利潤。

And lastly speaking, can you talk a little bit about the willingness to risk longer-term capital from some of your leasing customers? I know you don't have the same length and duration and size in multi-years of some of your competitors. But just what's the appetite for the leasing companies as we look out the next 6, 12, 18 months? How is that sales channel look? And do you expect that to be supportive of a fairly steady production rate for the industry over the next year or 2?

最後，您能否談談您的一些租賃客戶是否願意承擔長期資本風險？我知道你們的一些競爭對手多年來的長度、持續時間和規模都不同。但展望未來 6、12、18 個月，租賃公司的興趣是什麼？銷售渠道怎麼樣？您預計這會在未來一兩年內支持該行業相當穩定的生產率嗎？

That's a great question, Bascome and I was going to see if Mr. Comstock can handle it.

這是一個很好的問題，巴斯科姆和我想看看康斯托克先生能否解決這個問題。

Yes. Thanks, Justin, and thanks to Bascome. One of the areas that I think I reported on this maybe last quarter as well as we are seeing an increased interest by the operating lessors. They're traditionally in the market. But over the last couple of years due to COVID and other reasons, there's been a little bit of a pullback. We're seeing more and more confidence on the operating lessor side, which is driving, as you suggest more stability in the manufacturing as well as some of this order pipeline. And we think that's going to continue to build momentum throughout the rest of this year into next year.

是的。謝謝賈斯汀，也謝謝巴斯科姆。我認為我可能在上個季度報告過這一領域，而且我們看到運營出租人的興趣有所增加。他們傳統上在市場上。但在過去幾年中，由於新冠疫情和其他原因，出現了一些回落。我們看到運營出租方的信心越來越強，這正在推動，因為您建議製造業以及部分訂單渠道更加穩定。我們認為，從今年剩餘時間到明年，這種勢頭將繼續增強。

And from the syndication channel, any comments on that customer? Are they starting to get comfortable with the cost of capital and rising interest rates? Just do you think that is a growth opportunity or at least an opportunity for stability in your business as we look out 6, 12, 18 months?

從聯合渠道來看，對該客戶有何評論？他們是否開始適應資本成本和不斷上升的利率？展望 6、12、18 個月，您認為這是一個增長機會還是至少是您業務穩定的機會？

And Justin, I can grab this one as well. Yes, we do. The returns are still very strong as you know, interest rate pressures have put a lot of -- really a lot of pressure on that side of the house, but the deals that are coming in, all hurdle have the appropriate internal rate of returns. And so as a result, we're seeing more and more interest. In fact, we're seeing even some new entrants that are inquiring about coming into the space. So we feel pretty good from a liquidity standpoint. And long term, we think the syndication customers are pretty comfortable. Thank you for your time.

賈斯汀，我也可以抓住這個。是的，我們願意。正如你所知，回報仍然非常強勁，利率壓力給房子的那一邊帶來了很大的壓力，但即將到來的交易，所有障礙都有適當的內部回報率。因此，我們看到越來越多的人感興趣。事實上，我們甚至看到一些新進入者正在詢問是否要進入該領域。因此，從流動性的角度來看，我們感覺非常好。從長遠來看，我們認為聯合客戶非常滿意。感謝您的時間。

Thank you for your time.

感謝您的時間。

Our next question will come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. You may now go ahead.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。現在你可以繼續了。

Great. Good morning. So if I could just kind of follow on a little bit on Bascome's question there. Lorie, maybe talk a little bit about the balance of the leased fleet versus the build for external sales and manufacturing. It seems like we've got a lot of volatility where maybe you'll get the consistency after you get the ramp up. So are you getting closer to the full ramp-up on that production for the internal build versus external sales? I just want to understand how we should think about that given the build to revenue, your kind of take follows.

偉大的。早上好。因此，我能否稍微跟進一下巴斯科姆的問題。洛里（Lorie），也許可以談談租賃機隊與外部銷售和製造機隊的平衡。看起來我們有很大的波動性，也許在加速之後你會得到一致性。那麼，與外部銷售相比，您是否更接近內部構建生產的全面提升？我只是想了解我們應該如何考慮考慮到收入的增長，你的看法如下。

Thanks, Ken. Yes, it's a good question. And what's interesting is you have to step back and look at the strength of originations. So the same customers, same car type, same commodity. While we are growing our on-balance sheet lease fleet, it is still a fairly modest fleet and sometimes the size of those orders are such that it would really skew our concentration --

謝謝，肯。是的，這是一個好問題。有趣的是，你必須退後一步，看看起源的力量。因此，相同的客戶、相同的車型、相同的商品。雖然我們正在擴大資產負債表上的租賃機隊，但它仍然是一個相當適度的機隊，有時這些訂單的規模確實會扭曲我們的注意力——

Hey, Lorie, allow me to interrupt, but your line went quiet for like the first 3 seconds of your answer, I'm sorry to do it, but I'm getting ideas that other people, it went quiet, too. Do you mind just starting from the beginning there?

嘿，Lorie，請允許我打斷一下，但是你的線路在你回答的前 3 秒裡就安靜了，我很抱歉這麼做，但我發現其他人也安靜了。你介意從頭開始嗎？

My gosh, it was the most brilliant thing I've ever thought. So it's probably because every one of our field sales people was hardly calling in because I was complementing our sales -- can you still hear me?

天哪，這是我想到過的最美妙的事情。所以這可能是因為我們的每一位現場銷售人員幾乎都沒有打電話過來，因為我正在補充我們的銷售——你還能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes, perfectly.

是的，完美。

So we often can originate some very large leases. So a large number of cars, same customers, same car type, same commodity. While we are excited to grow our on-balance sheet lease fleet, it is still a relatively modest and I'm probably being generous size. Therefore, any of those orders could really skew our concentrations in any number of those areas. So we will continue to work with our syndication partners so that we can diversify and keep that disciplined approach to how we're growing our on-balance sheet portfolio.

因此，我們經常可以發起一些非常大的租賃。所以大量的汽車、相同的客戶、相同的車型、相同的商品。雖然我們很高興能夠擴大我們的資產負債表內租賃機隊，但它仍然相對較小，而且我的規模可能很大。因此，這些命令中的任何一個都可能真正扭曲我們在這些領域的集中度。因此，我們將繼續與我們的聯合合作夥伴合作，以便我們能夠實現多元化，並在擴大資產負債表投資組合方面保持嚴格的方法。

Sometimes our syndication partners are not as keen on our fiscal year quarter end or year-end as others might be. So we're going to take those opportunities when they arise, and we're going to close those transactions as appropriate for the business. So that will continue to cause some lumpiness from quarter-to-quarter, but you can understand that the basis is we've got strong commercial lease origination capabilities, and we're keeping an eye on having a very disciplined approach to how we're growing the fleet on the balance sheet.

有時，我們的聯合合作夥伴並不像其他人那樣熱衷於我們的財政年度季度末或年末。因此，當這些機會出現時，我們將抓住這些機會，並根據業務情況完成這些交易。因此，這將繼續導致季度與季度之間的一些波動，但你可以理解，基礎是我們擁有強大的商業租賃發起能力，並且我們正在密切關注如何採取非常嚴格的方法。在資產負債表上重新擴大機隊規模。

And then I throw at you for my follow-up, a quick numbers question, so I'll follow up with a kind of a follow-on question. But the backlog new orders came in at about $123 revenue per car, down from your printed $141,000 in the third quarter. Is there anything more to that than mix? Because that just seems like an extraordinary shift? And then I guess to wrap up, you said you weren't surprised by anything in the quarter, yet you raised your outlook. So I just want to understand what changed? Was there something in there that did change that led you to raise the outlook.

然後我會向您提出我的後續問題，一個快速的數字問題，所以我將提出一個後續問題。但積壓的新訂單每輛汽車的收入約為 123 美元，低於第三季度打印的 141,000 美元。除了混合還有什麼其他的嗎？因為這看起來像是一個非凡的轉變？然後我想總結一下，您說您對本季度的任何事情都不感到驚訝，但您提高了您的前景。所以我只是想了解發生了什麼變化？是否有什麼事情確實發生了變化，導致您提高了前景。

So Ken, on the ASP question, our ASP on the June order activity is more in line with our Q1 and Q2 activity, and it really is just mix, primarily from that perspective versus the Q3. And I think on the outlook question, obviously, Lorie can correct and chime in as needed. But bear in mind that we -- as we have been working through and navigating some of the supply chain issues, the first 6 months of the year were challenging, and we wanted to make sure that we were able to perform as we expected and deliver cards on time to our customers, and we had some bumpiness in the first part of the year. So now that seems to have sunset, and we are getting our operating momentum and getting our legs under as we are feeling more confident.

Ken，關於平均售價問題，我們 6 月訂單活動的平均售價與我們第一季度和第二季度的活動更加一致，而且它實際上只是混合，主要是從這個角度與第三季度相比。我認為，在前景問題上，洛里顯然可以根據需要進行糾正和插話。但請記住，由於我們一直在努力解決和解決一些供應鏈問題，因此今年的前 6 個月充滿挑戰，我們希望確保我們能夠按預期行事並交付成果按時向客戶提供卡片，今年上半年我們遇到了一些坎坷。所以現在似乎已經日落了，我們正在獲得運營動力，並在我們感覺更加自信的同時，我們的腳步也更加堅定。

Wonderful. Thanks for your time. Appreciate it.

精彩的。謝謝你的時間。欣賞它。

Our next question will come from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo Securities. You may now go ahead.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的艾莉森·波利尼亞克。現在你可以繼續了。

Good morning. This is Ryan (inaudible) on for Allison. Congrats on the quarter. Most of my questions were taken, but I kind of want to just take a little bit just kind of the smaller market here. So Brazil came in 200 in the quarter. You didn't really raise your delivery there. That implies, by my calc around 100. Is that market kind of just softening? Or is it just a near-term headwind that is like winter.

早上好。我是艾莉森的瑞安（聽不清）。恭喜本季度。我的大部分問題都得到了回答，但我想只回答一點這裡較小的市場。因此巴西本季度排名第 200。你並沒有真正提高那裡的交貨率。這意味著，根據我的計算，大約為 100。市場是否正在走軟？或者這只是近期的逆風，就像冬天一樣。

So this is Brian. I can jump in, Lorie on that question. Right now in Brazil, you're in a little bit of a -- and I say a little bit, probably over the next 6 months, they're in a bit of a softer period only due to capital restraints of some of the concessionaires in 2024. It looks like things begin to right size as well as a lot of the expansion in Brazil continues to build momentum. There is quite a bit of infrastructure in central Brazil and other areas that are being completed. So we anticipate long term that Brazil is going to continue to grow. However, right now, they're more in a level data play.

這就是布萊恩。洛里，我可以插話回答這個問題。現在在巴西，你正處於一個有點——我說有一點，可能在接下來的六個月裡，他們正處於一個比較疲軟的時期，這只是由於一些特許經營商的資本限制2024 年。看起來事情開始步入正軌，巴西的許多擴張繼續保持勢頭。巴西中部和其他地區有相當多的基礎設施正在建設中。因此，我們預計從長遠來看，巴西將繼續增長。然而，現在，他們更多的是在進行水平數據遊戲。

Okay. Thank you. And then I guess one more on the refurbishment side, that backlog has been kind of declining. Are we reaching closer to like an end of like market cycle here or there's not as much activity on those that side of the conversions or whatever it's called. Just any color there would be great.

好的。謝謝。然後我猜想在翻新方面，積壓的訂單有所減少。我們是否已經接近類似市場週期的結束，或者在轉換或其他什麼方面的活動沒有那麼多。任何顏色都會很棒。

This is Brian. I can dive in again. The conversion side is always lumpy, and it kind of moves up and down. There are a number of cars that have been programmed already, and there is kind of a finite shelf life to the conversions. But I still think there is -- seems to be at least several years of opportunity on that side. And then kind of behind the conversions, you've got these re-qualifications of tank cars that are ramping up. So I think what you'll see is just a shift from some of the large conversions to some of the large tank car requalification programs.

這是布萊恩。我可以再次潛入。轉換面總是不穩定的，並且會上下移動。有許多汽車已經被編程，並且轉換的保質期是有限的。但我仍然認為這方面似乎至少有幾年的機會。在改裝的背後，坦克車的重新認證正在加速進行。因此，我認為您將看到的只是從一些大型改裝轉向一些大型油罐車重新認證計劃。

Perfect. Thank you very much.

完美的。非常感謝。

Our next question will come from Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. You may now go ahead.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Steve Barger。現在你可以繼續了。

This is Jacob Moore on for Steve Barger. Thank you for taking my questions. So for my first one, just going back to the cost savings initiatives that you laid out at the Investor Day. Could you talk specifically about the actions that you've already got complete and maybe quantify how much of that $50 million to $55 million you think you've already achieved? And then also maybe just a quick clarification on the $15 million to $20 million in savings from Gunderson exit, is that now fully out of the system moving forward.

我是雅各布·摩爾 (Jacob Moore) 替史蒂夫·巴格 (Steve Barger) 發言。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，對於我的第一個建議，請回到您在投資者日提出的成本節約計劃。您能否具體談談您已經完成的行動，並量化您認為您已經實現的 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元中的多少？然後，也許只是快速澄清一下岡德森退出帶來的 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的節省，現在完全脫離了系統。

Hey, Jacob, this is Brian. It seems we've lost Lorie. I think they're having some communication problems. I can address -- the first part of that question for you, which is on the $50 million to $55 million of cost savings. We're probably -- we're still in the infancy of implementing that plan. It is ahead of schedule, as you see from the -- as you can see from the -- from this quarter's earnings. But we anticipate that, that will continue to develop really throughout the next fiscal year.

嘿，雅各布，這是布萊恩。看來我們失去了洛瑞。我認為他們之間存在一些溝通問題。我可以為您解答該問題的第一部分，即節省 5000 萬至 5500 萬美元的成本。我們可能仍處於實施該計劃的初期階段。正如您從本季度的收益中看到的那樣，它提前了。但我們預計，這一情況將在下一財年繼續發展。

Got it. Understood. And then maybe just one is a little bit better suited for you anyway, Brian. For my second question, just broadly, overall rail traffic is down. Freight seems to be holding in there, but lackluster traffic trends are starting to compound at this point. So my question is really now at the halfway point of the year. Could you expand on the earlier landscape comments and maybe provide an updated outlook on rail traffic trends for the remainder of the year?

知道了。明白了。無論如何，也許只有一個更適合你，布萊恩。對於我的第二個問題，總體而言，鐵路運輸總量正在下降。貨運量似乎保持不變，但此時交通量趨勢開始加劇。所以我的問題現在確實是在今年過半的時候。您能否詳細闡述之前的景觀評論，並提供今年剩餘時間鐵路交通趨勢的最新展望？

Yes. There's undoubtedly, when you look at the traffic side of the equation, fleet's improving a bit. There's a number of segments that are down, but there's a number of segments in the rail industry that are still fairly robust. Auto, there's a tremendous amount of pent-up demand. There's a number of new facilities coming online. There are several new plastic facilities that come online in late 2024, early 2025. And biodiesel continues to be fairly robust and a lot of new facilities coming online in that area as well. And then you still have a tremendous amount of retirements of older cars as well as a small number of cars and storage. So while there are some headwinds in the overall outlook, the build cycle still looks fairly level, at least we believe so over the next 18 to 36 months, pending any major change in the economic conditions.

是的。毫無疑問，當你看看等式的交通方面時，車隊正在有所改善。鐵路行業的許多細分市場都在下降，但也有許多細分市場仍然相當強勁。汽車，有大量被壓抑的需求。有許多新設施即將上線。有幾家新的塑料工廠將於 2024 年底、2025 年初上線。生物柴油仍然相當強勁，該地區也有許多新工廠上線。然後，您仍然有大量退役的舊汽車以及少量的汽車和存儲。因此，儘管總體前景存在一些不利因素，但建設週期看起來仍然相當平穩，至少我們認為在未來 18 至 36 個月內如此，直到經濟狀況出現任何重大變化。

Yes, go ahead.

好，去吧。

Can you hear us okay?

你能聽到我們說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I just want to check and make sure that we're still broadcasting here. So we've had a few technical difficulties. Thank you, Justin, for your phone. Just to touch on your other comment about Gunderson, There'll probably be a little bit of -- we won't have realized all of that permanent savings in our fourth quarter. But as we get into the early part of our fiscal '24, that will be wrapped up because we're just working with the new owners for some transition services.

所以我只是想檢查並確保我們仍然在這裡廣播。所以我們遇到了一些技術困難。賈斯汀，謝謝你的電話。只是想談談您對岡德森的其他評論，可能會有一點——我們不會在第四季度實現所有永久性節省。但當我們進入 24 財年初期時，這件事將會結束，因為我們只是與新所有者合作提供一些過渡服務。

Got it. Understood. Thank you for taking my questions.

知道了。明白了。感謝您回答我的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will be a follow-up from Matt Elkott with TD Cowen. You may now go ahead.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將是 Matt Elkott 和 TD Cowen 的後續問題。現在你可以繼續了。

Thank you for taking my follow up. I think this is for Brian. Brian, the leases coming up for renewal in '24 that you mentioned. If you are able to get them renewed earlier, the market is pretty hot right now, what kind of rate improvement do you think you can get expiring versus renewal, sorry?

感謝您接受我的跟進。我想這是給布萊恩的。 Brian，您提到的 24 年租約即將續簽。如果您能夠提前續訂，現在市場非常火爆，您認為到期與續訂相比您可以獲得什麼樣的費率改進，抱歉？

Yes. Good question, Matt. A lot of the renewals that we're seeing in 2024 are related to the purchase that we did back in 2021, the fleet that we acquired. And a lot of those rates were, I would say, submarket rates at the time. And so we believe we're seeing quarter-over-quarter double digits. But in those cases, we should see much larger double-digit increases in the renewals in 2024. At least that's what we're predicting at this stage, Matt.

是的。好問題，馬特。我們在 2024 年看到的許多續約都與我們在 2021 年購買的機隊有關。我想說，其中很多利率當時都是次市場利率。因此，我們相信我們會看到季度環比兩位數的增長。但在這些情況下，我們應該會在 2024 年看到續訂量出現更大的兩位數增長。至少這是我們現階段的預測，Matt。

And how many cars are those?

這些車有多少輛？

That's a great question. I don't have that at my fingertips, but I'm sure Justin can get back to you on that.

這是一個很好的問題。我手邊沒有這些信息，但我相信賈斯汀可以回复你。

Yes, I was going to say it's about 2,000 cars.

是的，我想說的是大約 2,000 輛車。

Okay. Thanks Justin. And then just maybe one more question for Justin or Lorie. You're pretty close to the mid-teens aggregate gross margin target for 26% this quarter. So first, any updated thoughts on this target? And second, can you remind us what the target is contingent on? Do we have to be in a demand up cycle? Does it work at a replacement level or below placement level demand because the recurring parts of the business should grow.

好的。謝謝賈斯汀。然後也許還有一個問題要問賈斯汀或洛里。本季度的總毛利率目標非常接近 26%。首先，關於這個目標有什麼最新的想法嗎？其次，您能提醒我們目標取決於什麼嗎？我們必須處於需求上升週期嗎？它是否在替代水平或低於安置水平需求下發揮作用，因為業務的經常性部分應該增長。

So good question, Matt, and I would say that the targets are based on more stable demand, so not a boom market. And I think while we're excited about the achievements that we've received in the third quarter, we'd like to get a quarter or 2 of continuous improvement under our belt before we'll consider adjusting those 5-year targets.

這是一個很好的問題，馬特，我想說，這些目標是基於更穩定的需求，而不是繁榮的市場。我認為，雖然我們對第三季度取得的成就感到興奮，但我們希望在考慮調整這些 5 年目標之前，能夠持續改進一兩個季度。

Okay. Got it. Just one last one, I probably should know this, but have you guys said what's going to happen to Gunderson? What kind of -- what use is it going to be used for?

好的。知道了。最後一點，我可能應該知道這一點，但是你們有沒有說過岡德森會發生什麼？它有什麼用途？

Yes, if that hasn't come through. So it was purchased by a local operation here run by a couple of local Portland people, Oregon green manufacturing. They're going to continue marine activities, but they're going to expand more broadly than we were able to do. And I think they're looking at some other metal bending activities or possibly some other infrastructure work.

是的，如果那還沒有實現的話。因此，它被當地波特蘭當地幾位居民經營的一家俄勒岡州綠色製造公司購買了。他們將繼續進行海洋活動，但他們的擴張範圍將比我們所能做到的更廣泛。我認為他們正在考慮其他一些金屬彎曲活動或可能其他一些基礎設施工作。

But no railcars are going to be manufactured there anymore?

但那裡不再生產軌道車了嗎？

Yes, I should have been clear about that. No railcars.

是的，我應該清楚這一點。沒有軌道車。

Got it. Great. Thank you very much.

知道了。偉大的。非常感謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Justin Roberts for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回賈斯汀·羅伯茨先生髮表閉幕詞。

Thanks, Anthony. Sorry for the technical issues this morning. Appreciate your patience. I hope everyone has a great day. And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Greenbrier either myself, if you have my e-mail or investorrelations@gbrx.com. Thanks, and have a great day.

謝謝，安東尼。很抱歉今天早上出現技術問題。感謝您的耐心。我希望每個人都有美好的一天。如果您有任何後續問題，請親自聯繫 Greenbrier（如果您有我的電子郵件或 Investorrelations@gbrx.com）。謝謝，祝你有美好的一天。

Have a happy end of end this weekend. Be safe.

祝這個週末有個愉快的結局。注意安全。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。