使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.
女士們、先生們,感謝大家的支持,並歡迎參加 First Citizens BancShares 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 (操作員指示)提醒一下,今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想介紹一下本次電話會議的主持人,投資者關係高級副總裁 Deanna Hart 女士。你可以開始了。
Deanna W. Hart - SVP of IR
Deanna W. Hart - SVP of IR
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; President, Peter Bristow; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix, will provide second quarter business and financial updates today. During the call, we will reference our investor presentation, which you can find on our website. Our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations.
大家,早安。歡迎參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Frank Holding;主席:彼得·布里斯托;首席財務官克雷格·尼克斯 (Craig Nix) 今天將提供第二季度的業務和財務更新。在電話會議期間,我們將參考我們的投資者演示文稿,您可以在我們的網站上找到該演示文稿。我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。
We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined for you on Page 3. We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures are found in Section 5 of the presentation. Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third parties.
我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。這些風險已在第 3 頁為您概述。我們還將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節可在演示文稿的第 5 節中找到。最後,First Citizens 不負責、不編輯或保證第三方提供的收入記錄的準確性。
I will now turn it over to Frank.
我現在將把它交給弗蘭克。
Frank Brown Holding - Chairman & CEO
Frank Brown Holding - Chairman & CEO
Thank you, Deanna, and good morning, everyone. Before we get into second quarter results, I'd like to start by saying that the SVB acquisition is going very well, and we are pleased with our progress integrating SVB's clients and associates into First Citizens. I'm also pleased to announce that we've appointed Marc Cadieux, a 30-year veteran of SVB as President of SVB's Commercial Banking business. Based in the San Francisco Bay Area, Marc leads a team of more than 1,000 experienced and talented bankers nationwide who are dedicated to the innovation economy. And we are fortunate to have Marc as a part of the First Citizens senior leadership team.
謝謝你,迪安娜,大家早上好。在我們公佈第二季度業績之前,我首先想說的是,SVB 的收購進展順利,我們對將 SVB 的客戶和員工整合到 First Citizens 方面所取得的進展感到高興。我還很高興地宣布,我們已任命在 SVB 工作了 30 年的資深人士 Marc Cadieux 擔任 SVB 商業銀行業務總裁。 Marc 總部位於舊金山灣區,領導著一支由全國 1,000 多名經驗豐富、才華橫溢的銀行家組成的團隊,致力於創新經濟。我們很幸運有馬克成為第一公民高級領導團隊的一員。
Starting on Page 5. We've announced another quarter of solid financial results which were amplified by the SVB acquisition. We reported adjusted earnings per share of $52.60, exceeding our expectations. We delivered top quartile return metrics, generating an adjusted return on equity of 16.5% and return on assets of 1.5%. Our net interest margin expanded 69 basis points to 4.1%, and our adjusted efficiency ratio came in below 50% for this quarter. Deposits continue to be a huge focus for us, generated for us growing by 3.2% on an annualized basis.
從第 5 頁開始。我們宣布了又一個季度的穩健財務業績,收購 SVB 進一步放大了這一業績。我們公佈的調整後每股收益為 52.60 美元,超出了我們的預期。我們提供了最高四分之一的回報指標,調整後股本回報率為 16.5%,資產回報率為 1.5%。我們的淨息差擴大了 69 個基點,達到 4.1%,本季度調整後的效率比率低於 50%。存款仍然是我們關注的重點,存款年化增長率為 3.2%。
In addition to deposit growth, our commercial and general bank segments posted solid loan growth. We finished the second quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.4%. Since year-end, we've accreted 228 basis points of capital from the SVB acquisition and 69 basis points from retained earnings. While we continue to build capital to support clients and drive organic growth, our goal is to operate with efficient levels of capital defined by our target ranges.
除了存款增長外,我們的商業和一般銀行部門的貸款也實現了穩健的增長。第二季度結束時,我們的 CET1 比率為 13.4%。自年底以來,我們通過收購 SVB 積累了 228 個基點的資本,通過留存收益積累了 69 個基點。在我們繼續積累資本來支持客戶並推動有機增長的同時,我們的目標是按照我們的目標範圍確定的高效資本水平進行運營。
At the present time, we are operating over the top end of our target ranges for all of our risk-based capital ratios. However, we will continue to pause share repurchases this year as we focus on SVB integration and get more clarity around the impacts of the new proposed capital rules. As for pending regulation, we are tracking the potential new requirements to ensure operational readiness. As part of this work, we've established a team whose mandate is to develop plans to expedite implementation once final rules are established. Thanks to these proactive actions and our strong risk management framework, we are well positioned to manage through any changes and address them exponentially or expediently, excuse me.
目前,我們所有基於風險的資本比率都超出了目標範圍的上限。然而,今年我們將繼續暫停股票回購,因為我們將重點放在 SVB 整合上,並更清楚地了解新擬議資本規則的影響。至於待定的監管,我們正在跟踪潛在的新要求,以確保運營準備就緒。作為這項工作的一部分,我們建立了一個團隊,其任務是製定計劃,以便在最終規則制定後加快實施。抱歉,由於這些積極主動的行動和我們強大的風險管理框架,我們能夠很好地應對任何變化,並以指數方式或權宜之計地解決這些變化。
In addition to capital, our liquidity position remains strong and stable, driven by our focus on core deposit gathering and a conservatively managed investment portfolio. We also remain focused on managing credit prudently. While we experienced an increase in net charge-offs this quarter, the majority of the increase related to the SVB portfolio that were anticipated and reserved for in day 1 acquisition accounting. We remain encouraged by the resiliency of our clients in the face of elevated inflation and rising interest rates and we look forward to continuing to supporting them.
除資本外,在我們專注於核心存款收集和保守管理的投資組合的推動下,我們的流動性狀況保持強勁和穩定。我們還繼續致力於審慎管理信貸。雖然本季度我們的淨沖銷有所增加,但大部分增加與 SVB 投資組合有關,這些投資組合是在第一天收購會計中預計和保留的。面對通脹上升和利率上升,我們的客戶的彈性仍然令我們感到鼓舞,我們期待繼續為他們提供支持。
Turning to Page 6. We continue to make progress on SVB integration efforts and are excited by the early signs of collaboration and partnership we are seeing among our teams. Since we acquired SVB on March 27, our focus has been on stabilizing the business and as Peter Bristow will discuss shortly, we've made excellent progress on this front. We continue to focus on providing consistent and high-touch service to our clients and getting back to what SVB does best, lending to the innovation economy and bringing its participants together. Internally, we've been hyper focused on retaining SVB talent. An important step was in the naming of the SVB leadership team and ensuring that they have the tools to provide associates support and reiterate our commitment to the innovation economy.
轉向第 6 頁。我們在 SVB 集成工作中繼續取得進展,並對我們團隊之間看到的協作和夥伴關係的早期跡象感到興奮。自 3 月 27 日收購 SVB 以來,我們的重點一直是穩定業務,正如 Peter Bristow 將很快討論的那樣,我們在這方面取得了出色的進展。我們繼續專注於為客戶提供一致和高接觸度的服務,並回歸 SVB 最擅長的領域,為創新經濟提供貸款並將其參與者聚集在一起。在內部,我們非常注重留住 SVB 人才。重要的一步是任命 SVB 領導團隊,並確保他們擁有為員工提供支持並重申我們對創新經濟的承諾的工具。
Externally, our stabilization efforts focused on client outreach. Our associates have dedicated countless hours to communicating to clients that they continue to expect what made SVB special to remain, including the high level of service, specialization, ability to anticipate challenges and the resources to provide meaningful solutions. This outreach has paid off as we've seen continued deposit stabilization in the SVB portfolio since April.
在外部,我們的穩定工作主要集中在客戶外展上。我們的員工投入了無數的時間與客戶溝通,他們繼續期望 SVB 的獨特之處得以保留,包括高水平的服務、專業化、預見挑戰的能力以及提供有意義的解決方案的資源。自四月份以來,我們看到 SVB 投資組合的存款持續穩定,這一舉措已取得成效。
Currently, we're moving forward with the remaining pillars of our integration process, and let me quickly run through these with you. First, we continue to advance our strategic assessment work. Having completed an initial round of strategic assessments led by the business lines, we are now leveraging those insights to identify strategic initiatives and key integration activities. In doing so, we're ensuring that the key processes and practices that have been instrumental to SVB's differentiated offering remain in place. These strategic assessments also inform our integration efforts, which we continue to make progress on.
目前,我們正在推進整合流程的其餘支柱,讓我與您快速瀏覽一下這些內容。一是繼續推進戰略評估工作。在完成了由業務部門主導的第一輪戰略評估後,我們現在正在利用這些見解來確定戰略舉措和關鍵整合活動。在此過程中,我們確保對 SVB 差異化產品發揮重要作用的關鍵流程和實踐保持不變。這些戰略評估也為我們的整合工作提供了信息,我們將繼續在這方面取得進展。
As a part of this work, we're developing and executing on detailed integration plans that prioritize maintaining SVB's unique leadership role and ongoing support for the innovation economy. And finally, we are ensuring regulatory readiness through our large bank program. After the CIT merger, we established a large bank program oversight team as centralized functions within our risk -- as a centralized function within our risk management organization. This team provides dedicated oversight of the work needed to meet heightened regulatory expectations and ensure sound business practice for large financial institutions.
作為這項工作的一部分,我們正在製定和執行詳細的整合計劃,優先考慮維持 SVB 獨特的領導作用和對創新經濟的持續支持。最後,我們通過大型銀行計劃確保監管準備就緒。 CIT 合併後,我們建立了一個大型銀行項目監督團隊,作為我們風險管理部門的集中職能——作為我們風險管理組織內的集中職能。該團隊對滿足更高的監管期望和確保大型金融機構良好的業務實踐所需的工作進行專門監督。
Post SVB, this team is working to identify potential gaps and implementing plans to remediate them. Turning to Page 7. We remain focused on executing against our core strategic priorities, which are the building blocks for long-term sustainable value generation and are at the core of everything we do. As a result, I'm confident that we are well positioned to support our clients and customers, grow our balance sheet profitably and deliver strong results. Before I turn it over to Peter, I want to thank all of our associates for their hard work and unwavering commitment to our shareholders, clients, customers and communities, and I'm proud of what we've accomplished and will accomplish moving forward. Now I'll turn it over to Peter Bristow to provide an SVB business update. Peter?
SVB 之後,該團隊正在努力找出潛在的差距並實施修復計劃。轉向第 7 頁。我們仍然專注於執行我們的核心戰略優先事項,這些優先事項是長期可持續價值創造的基石,也是我們所做一切的核心。因此,我相信我們有能力為我們的客戶和消費者提供支持,實現資產負債表的盈利增長並取得強勁的業績。在將其交給彼得之前,我要感謝我們所有員工的辛勤工作以及對我們的股東、客戶、客戶和社區的堅定承諾,我對我們已經取得的成就以及未來將取得的成就感到自豪。現在我將把它交給 Peter Bristow,以提供 SVB 業務更新。彼得?
Peter McDonald Bristow - President & Director
Peter McDonald Bristow - President & Director
Thank you, Frank, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Page 8, I want to reiterate what Frank said. I'm incredibly proud of the progress we have made in integrating SVB and reestablishing it as an undisputed leader in the innovation economy. Our team has done tremendous work on that front. I won't cover all the details outlined on this slide as many of the points echo comments Frank just made. But I do want to provide concrete examples on the progress we are making.
謝謝弗蘭克,大家早上好。翻到第8頁,我想重申弗蘭克所說的話。我對我們在整合 SVB 並將其重建為創新經濟無可爭議的領導者方面所取得的進展感到無比自豪。我們的團隊在這方面做了大量的工作。我不會涵蓋這張幻燈片上概述的所有細節,因為許多觀點呼應了弗蘭克剛剛發表的評論。但我確實想提供具體的例子來說明我們正在取得的進展。
Our bankers have reached out to a considerable number of clients over the past few months, and we are encouraged by the success we are seeing in reestablishing relationships with the clients who left in March. To support this effort, we've initiated a comprehensive outreach campaign to touch each of our approximately 30,000 clients. We've also embarked on a major print web campaign including full pages in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times to reinforce to our clients that we're fully committed to the innovation economy and ready to serve their needs with tailored product offerings.
在過去的幾個月裡,我們的銀行家已經接觸了相當多的客戶,我們在與三月份離開的客戶重建關係方面所取得的成功感到鼓舞。為了支持這項工作,我們發起了一項全面的外展活動,以接觸我們大約 30,000 名客戶中的每一位。我們還開展了一項大型印刷網絡活動,包括在《華爾街日報》和《紐約時報》上刊登整版,以向我們的客戶強調我們完全致力於創新經濟,並準備通過量身定制的產品來滿足他們的需求。
I want to highlight some numbers that demonstrate the success we've seen so far. We have approximately 1,500 clients whose funds dipped below 10% of their March 8 amount who have recommitted and now have some portion of their funds back at SVB. We also now have over 90% of our core borrowers, either meeting deposit requirements or working in good faith with us to meet them. These sales efforts have been noticeable on the balance sheet.
我想強調一些數字,這些數字證明了我們迄今為止所取得的成功。我們有大約 1,500 名客戶的資金跌至 3 月 8 日金額的 10% 以下,但他們已經重新承諾,現在部分資金已回到 SVB。現在,我們超過 90% 的核心借款人要么滿足存款要求,要么真誠地與我們合作以滿足這些要求。這些銷售努力在資產負債表上顯而易見。
Our deposits have largely remained steady since the end of April, maintaining in the $40 billion to $41 billion range despite the limited fundraising activity in the broader venture capital market and our clients' ongoing cash burn. And while our loan balances have declined, this is primarily related to the short-term nature of our global funds banking portfolio, which is down given reduced broader market activity as well as the lagged effect of being out of the market for a few months in early 2023.
儘管更廣泛的風險投資市場的融資活動有限且我們的客戶持續燒錢,但自 4 月底以來,我們的存款基本保持穩定,維持在 400 億至 410 億美元的範圍內。雖然我們的貸款餘額有所下降,但這主要與我們的全球基金銀行投資組合的短期性質有關,由於更廣泛的市場活動減少以及今年幾個月退出市場的滯後影響,該投資組合有所下降。 2023 年初。
We are encouraged by the robust pipelines in this business, and we are back in the market for new production. While we see challenges in the broader market for the remainder of 2023, as venture capital investment is below the levels of the past few years. We are well poised to capture client funds once investment levels begin to increase likely in late 2024 and into 2025.
我們對該業務的強勁管道感到鼓舞,並且我們回到了新產品市場。雖然我們認為 2023 年剩餘時間裡更廣泛的市場將面臨挑戰,因為風險資本投資低於過去幾年的水平。一旦投資水平可能在 2024 年底和 2025 年開始增加,我們就已經做好了吸引客戶資金的準備。
Despite competitors who are actively entering the innovation space, competitive advantages, including our long-standing client relationships and our breadth and depth of offerings continue to differentiate us. Importantly, we are hearing positive client feedback around our reinforcement of SVB stability now backed by the strength of First Citizens and our unique tailored offering that our clients have come to know and love.
儘管競爭對手正在積極進入創新領域,但競爭優勢,包括我們長期的客戶關係以及我們產品的廣度和深度,繼續使我們脫穎而出。重要的是,我們聽到了客戶對我們加強 SVB 穩定性的積極反饋,現在得到了 First Citizens 的實力和我們的客戶已經了解和喜愛的獨特定制產品的支持。
Clients are eager to learn more about the vision for the First Citizens and SVB partnership. We also remain excited about the opportunities that SVB products and services provide for our legacy First Citizens clients and we believe there are opportunities to expand deposit and suite products to our CIT commercial clients. Complementing our early success in the SVB integration are our team's efforts in the broader commercial banking business. where strong momentum continued in the second quarter. The lending portfolio led by industry verticals in our Commercial Finance Group grew by $901 million to $13.8 billion with strong performance across the portfolio, including healthcare, tech media and telecom, energy and maritime, just to name a few.
客戶渴望更多地了解 First Citizens 和 SVB 合作夥伴關係的願景。我們還對 SVB 產品和服務為我們的傳統 First Citizens 客戶提供的機會感到興奮,並且我們相信有機會將存款和套件產品擴展到我們的 CIT 商業客戶。我們團隊在更廣泛的商業銀行業務方面所做的努力是對我們在 SVB 整合方面的早期成功的補充。第二季度繼續保持強勁勢頭。我們商業金融集團垂直行業主導的貸款組合增長了 9.01 億美元,達到 138 億美元,整個投資組合表現強勁,包括醫療保健、科技媒體和電信、能源和海事等。
We were also pleased to welcome Jim Hudak back as the President of the Commercial Finance Group. Jim brings more than 20 years as a commercial finance executive including overseeing CIT's commercial finance business for over a decade. We are confident his leadership, insights and expertise will be invaluable as we continue to grow our commercial portfolio. We also continue to see strong performance in our middle market banking organization as we explore attractive market opportunities. And our rail business delivered another strong quarter with utilization remaining above 98%.
我們還很高興地歡迎 Jim Hudak 重新擔任商業金融集團總裁。 Jim 擔任商業財務主管超過 20 年,其中監督 CIT 的商業金融業務已有十多年。我們相信,隨著我們繼續擴大我們的商業投資組合,他的領導力、見解和專業知識將非常寶貴。在我們探索有吸引力的市場機會時,我們還繼續看到我們的中間市場銀行業務表現強勁。我們的鐵路業務又一個強勁的季度表現,利用率保持在 98% 以上。
And finally, on the wealth side, we are planning to leverage SVB's strong wealth footprint in the Northeast and California to expand our wealth coverage, building on our strong business and commercial relationships in Southern California and expanding services for our existing legacy CIT clients in the Northeast.
最後,在財富方面,我們計劃利用SVB 在東北部和加利福尼亞州的強大財富足跡來擴大我們的財富覆蓋範圍,建立我們在南加利福尼亞州強大的業務和商業關係,並擴大為我們現有的傳統CIT客戶提供的服務東北。
On Page 9, we show the deposit and loan trends for the SVB segment starting on March 27 through June 30. Notably, we have not seen material declines in legacy SVB deposits since our first quarter disclosure using April 30 data. This is in spite of venture investment remaining subdued and more aligned with 2018/'19 levels. The stabilization that we've seen in our deposit balances is a testament to the client outreach and effort the team has put in to reassure them that despite the turmoil in March, SVB is not going anywhere and is more secure than ever. It also demonstrates that SVB's unique value proposition remains attractive to clients.
在第9 頁,我們顯示了從3 月27 日到6 月30 日期間SVB 部門的存款和貸款趨勢。值得注意的是,自我們使用4 月30 日的數據披露第一季度數據以來,我們沒有看到傳統SVB 存款出現實質性下降。儘管風險投資仍然低迷並且與 2018/'19 年的水平更加一致。我們在存款餘額中看到的穩定證明了客戶的外展和團隊所付出的努力,以讓他們放心,儘管 3 月份發生了動盪,但 SVB 不會消失,而且比以往任何時候都更加安全。它還表明 SVB 獨特的價值主張仍然對客戶有吸引力。
Moving on to loans. As we noted on our first quarter call, we anticipated a drag on loan growth given more subdued lending activity in the innovation economy. The primary driver of the decline in our loans this quarter was a $6.8 billion reduction in Global Fund Banking, which was expected. Global Fund Banking has historically been one of the primary drivers of growth at SVB. However, starting in 2022 with what has been called the great reset, the pace of venture capital activity slowed considerably. Consequently, these venture capital firms are investing less, which reduces their needs to use our capital co-lending facilities.
繼續貸款。正如我們在第一季度電話會議中指出的那樣,鑑於創新經濟中的貸款活動更加疲軟,我們預計貸款增長將受到拖累。本季度貸款下降的主要原因是全球基金銀行業務減少了 68 億美元,這符合預期。全球基金銀行業務歷來是 SVB 增長的主要推動力之一。然而,從 2022 年開始,隨著所謂的“大重置”,風險投資活動的步伐大幅放緩。因此,這些風險投資公司的投資減少,這減少了他們使用我們的資本共同借貸設施的需求。
Now midway through 2023, private equity and venture capital investors faced a dynamic environment because of various macroeconomic factors, many of which are carryovers from 2022. Some such as inflation and a depressed public market appear to be resolving. Others, however, are persistent, such as high interest rates and low initial public offering activity. These challenges are having a direct impact on the private market investment landscape, resulting in a difficult exit environment, lower fundraising numbers and fewer deals. Nevertheless, we are continuing to focus on the areas we can control and believe that the rest will follow. We continue to focus on client engagement as we remain patient and continue to be there for our clients. And we believe in the fullness of time, we will successfully win back additional deposits and loans as clients restore faith and trust in the business and of course, us.
現在已到2023 年中期,由於各種宏觀經濟因素,私募股權和風險資本投資者面臨著一個充滿活力的環境,其中許多因素是2022 年遺留下來的。通貨膨脹和低迷的公共市場等一些問題似乎正在得到解決。然而,其他問題卻持續存在,例如高利率和低首次公開募股活動。這些挑戰對私募市場投資格局產生直接影響,導致退出環境困難、融資數量減少和交易減少。儘管如此,我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的領域,並相信其餘的領域將會隨之而來。我們繼續關注客戶參與,保持耐心並繼續為客戶服務。我們相信,隨著時間的推移,隨著客戶恢復對企業以及我們的信心和信任,我們將成功贏回額外的存款和貸款。
Turning to Page 10. We provide additional information on SVB trends in terms of assets, all balance sheet client funds and assets under management. I won't spend much time on this today, but I wanted to provide this to you for reference. In closing, it's clear that there are a lot of opportunities for the combined company. I want to echo Frank's appreciation for all of our associates. Your continued dedication has put us in a strong position to continue growing the business, enhancing relationships and delivering best-in-class solutions and services to our clients.
翻到第 10 頁。我們提供有關 SVB 資產、所有資產負債表客戶資金和管理資產方面趨勢的更多信息。今天我不會花太多時間在這上面,但我想提供給大家參考。最後,很明顯,合併後的公司有很多機會。我想表達弗蘭克對我們所有同事的讚賞。您的持續奉獻使我們處於有利地位,能夠繼續發展業務、加強關係並為客戶提供一流的解決方案和服務。
With that, I'll turn it over to Craig Nix.
有了這個,我會把它交給克雷格·尼克斯。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Thank you, Peter, and thank all of you for joining us today. On Page 12, we summarize high level themes from our second quarter results. The power of the SVB combination was on full display during the quarter with return metrics exceeding our expectations. Meanwhile, the adjusted efficiency ratio significantly improved to sub-50%, thanks to strong net interest income growth and better-than-expected recognition of cost synergies. From an asset quality standpoint, overall credit performance continued to normalize, with net charge-offs increasing to 47 basis points, with most of the sequential increase related to SVB charge-offs that were expected and reserved for as of the merger date. Our exposure to office-related commercial real estate is limited, and our overall credit metrics remain resilient.
謝謝你,彼得,也感謝大家今天加入我們。在第 12 頁,我們總結了第二季度業績的高級主題。 SVB 組合的力量在本季度得到了充分展示,回報指標超出了我們的預期。與此同時,得益於強勁的淨利息收入增長和好於預期的成本協同效應,調整後的效率比率顯著提高至50%以下。從資產質量的角度來看,整體信貸表現繼續正常化,淨沖銷增加至 47 個基點,其中大部分環比增長與截至合併日期預計並保留的 SVB 沖銷有關。我們對辦公相關商業房地產的敞口有限,而且我們的整體信用指標仍然具有彈性。
Moving to the balance sheet, while loans declined sequentially due to an expected decline that Peter mentioned in Global Banking -- Global Fund Banking portfolio, the General and Commercial Bank segments grew loans at annualized rate of 12.6% and 10.5%, respectively. Our commercial and business clients continue to be resilient in the face of economic headwind. Deposits grew sequentially at an annualized rate of 3.2%, driven by core deposit growth in the direct bank.
轉向資產負債表,儘管由於彼得在全球銀行業務——全球基金銀行業務組合中提到的預期下降,貸款連續下降,但普通銀行和商業銀行部門的貸款年化增長率分別為12.6% 和10.5% 。面對經濟逆風,我們的商業和企業客戶繼續保持彈性。在直接銀行核心存款增長的推動下,存款環比年化增長率為 3.2%。
As Peter just mentioned, we are pleased to see stabilization in the SVB deposit base during the quarter. And finally, our balance sheet position remains strong. We continue to build capital through solid earnings in turn, supporting our clients to drive organic earning asset growth.
正如彼得剛才提到的,我們很高興看到本季度 SVB 存款基礎趨於穩定。最後,我們的資產負債表狀況依然強勁。我們繼續通過穩健的盈利積累資本,支持我們的客戶推動有機盈利資產增長。
As Frank mentioned in his comments, we anticipate operating above our target capital ranges, for the remainder of 2023 as we continue our pause of stock repurchases while we focus on SVB integration and gain clarity on the new proposed capital rules. Turning to Pages 13 and 14. Second quarter GAAP net income to common shareholders was $667 million or $45.87 per share. Our second quarter GAAP results were impacted by the full year impact of the SVB acquisition, a full quarter impact, sorry, as well as $55 million adjustment to the preliminary bargain purchase gain.
正如弗蘭克在評論中提到的,我們預計在2023 年剩餘時間內,我們的運營將高於我們的目標資本範圍,因為我們將繼續暫停股票回購,同時專注於SVB 整合併明確新提議的資本規則。翻到第 13 頁和第 14 頁。第二季度普通股股東的 GAAP 淨利潤為 6.67 億美元,即每股 45.87 美元。我們第二季度的 GAAP 業績受到 SVB 收購的全年影響、整個季度的影響(抱歉)以及對初步討價還價購買收益的 5500 萬美元調整的影響。
On an adjusted basis, net income to common shareholders was $765 million or $52.60 per share yielding an annualized ROE of 16.46% and ROA of 1.49%. On Page 14, we provide 2 condensed income statements. The table at the top of the page represents our reported GAAP results and the table at the bottom supplements those results showing net income adjusted for notable items. The section in the middle of the page summarizes the impact of notable items to drive the adjusted results from the reported results. Page 15 provides detail with respect to notable items for the relevant quarterly and year-to-date periods. During the second quarter, these adjustments had the net impact of adding $6.73 to GAAP EPS.
調整後,普通股股東淨利潤為 7.65 億美元,即每股 52.60 美元,年化 ROE 為 16.46%,ROA 為 1.49%。在第 14 頁,我們提供了 2 份簡明損益表。頁面頂部的表格代表了我們報告的 GAAP 結果,底部的表格補充了顯示針對顯著項目調整後的淨利潤的結果。頁面中間的部分總結了值得注意的項目的影響,以根據報告的結果推動調整後的結果。第 15 頁提供了相關季度和年初至今期間值得注意的項目的詳細信息。在第二季度,這些調整的淨影響是 GAAP 每股收益增加 6.73 美元。
Turning to Page 16. Net interest income of $1.96 billion increased by $1.1 billion over the linked quarter, mostly due to the impact of the SVB acquisition. Net interest margin increased by 69 basis points due to the full quarter impact of accretion from the SVB combination, a higher yield on earning assets, partially offset by an increase in deposit costs. Our loan yield increased by 149 basis points, 64 basis points of which was related to accretion income. Meanwhile, deposit costs increased by 44 basis points, representing a cycle-to-date beta of 30%.
翻到第 16 頁。淨利息收入為 19.6 億美元,較上一季度增加了 11 億美元,這主要是由於 SVB 收購的影響。淨息差增加了 69 個基點,這是由於 SVB 合併帶來的整個季度的影響,即生息資產收益率的提高,部分被存款成本的增加所抵消。我們的貸款收益率增加了149個基點,其中64個基點與增值收入有關。與此同時,存款成本增加了 44 個基點,週期迄今的貝塔值為 30%。
Page 17 provides a roll forward of net interest margin from the sequential quarter and from the same quarter in the prior year for your reference. Moving to Page 18. We remained asset sensitive during the quarter, with a negative 100 basis points ramp in rates negatively impacting net interest income by 5.7%. We continue to prioritize liquidity risk management by intentionally keeping a larger cash balance due to the current macroeconomic environment. However, we have begun to put some of the excess cash to work in short duration U.S. treasuries to soften some of the asset sensitivity.
第17頁提供了連續季度和上年同季度的淨息差前滾,供您參考。轉到第 18 頁。本季度我們仍然對資產敏感,利率下降 100 個基點,對淨利息收入產生 5.7% 的負面影響。鑑於當前的宏觀經濟環境,我們繼續優先考慮流動性風險管理,有意保持較大的現金餘額。然而,我們已開始將部分過剩現金投入短期美國國債,以緩解部分資產敏感性。
On Page 19, we provide information on our actual and expected deposit betas. 54% of our deposits exhibit lower betas with the remainder exhibited moderate to higher betas. Our cumulative beta through the second quarter was 30%, which was higher than our previous forecast, driven by changes to interest rate environment as rates have stayed higher for longer. Given this and the competitive environment for deposits, we expect our cumulative beta to increase to 36% by the end of the third quarter as deposit costs catch up from recent rate increases, and we raise additional deposits in our more rate-sensitive direct bank channel.
在第 19 頁,我們提供了有關實際和預期存款貝塔值的信息。我們 54% 的存款表現出較低的貝塔值,其餘的則表現出中等至較高的貝塔值。我們第二季度的累計貝塔值為 30%,高於我們之前的預測,這是由於利率環境變化造成的,因為利率保持較高水平的時間較長。考慮到這一點以及存款的競爭環境,我們預計到第三季度末,隨著存款成本趕上最近的利率上漲,我們的累積貝塔值將增加至36%,並且我們通過對利率更加敏感的直接銀行渠道籌集更多存款。
Over the interest rate hiking cycle, we forecast our cumulative beta will be approximately 39%, up 5% from our previous estimate, which is due in part to rates higher for longer as well as increasing our balances in the higher-cost direct bank to reduce our wholesale funding reliance.
在加息週期中,我們預測累積貝塔值將約為 39%,比我們之前的估計上升 5%,部分原因是利率持續走高,以及我們在成本較高的直接銀行的餘額增加至減少我們對批發資金的依賴。
On Page 20, adjusted noninterest income increased by $153 million over the linked quarter due to the impact of the SVB acquisition and continued momentum in our legacy fee-generating business lines such as rail and card. The impact of SVB included a $50 million increase in client investment fees, earnings for managing off-balance sheet client funds and a $28 million increase in international fees related to customer foreign currency transactions.
在第 20 頁,由於 SVB 收購的影響以及鐵路和銀行卡等傳統收費業務線的持續增長勢頭,調整後的非利息收入比相關季度增加了 1.53 億美元。 SVB 的影響包括客戶投資費用增加 5000 萬美元、管理表外客戶資金的收益以及與客戶外幣交易相關的國際費用增加 2800 萬美元。
In addition, other service charges increased $22 million primarily due to unused line of credit fees in the SVB segment. Service charges on deposits and cardholder services income both increased $20 million from higher volume associated with the full quarter impact of the acquisition. These increases were partially offset by small declines in other noninterest income spread across several smaller line items and a decrease in BOLI income given our strategic early surrender of BOLI policies in the fourth quarter of 2022.
此外,其他服務費用增加了 2200 萬美元,主要是由於 SVB 部門未使用信用額度費用。由於收購對整個季度的影響,存款服務費和持卡人服務收入均增加了 2,000 萬美元。這些增長被幾個較小項目的其他非利息收入小幅下降以及由於我們在 2022 年第四季度戰略性提前放棄 BOLI 保單而導致 BOLI 收入減少所部分抵消。
On Page 21, adjusted noninterest expense totaled $1.2 billion, a $525 million increase over the linked quarter, representing the full quarter impact of the SVB acquisition. Our adjusted efficiency ratio showed significant improvement during the quarter, dropping from 57.55% to 49.65%. For your reference, Page 22 outlines our adjusted noninterest income and expense composition for the second quarter. Page 23 shows balance sheet highlights and key ratios. I'm not going to cover this in detail, but I would like to direct your attention to the fact that we drove TBV per share growth of $39 per share during the quarter while increasing our liquidity position by $8.5 billion.
在第 21 頁,調整後的非利息支出總計 12 億美元,比相關季度增加 5.25 億美元,代表了 SVB 收購對整個季度的影響。本季度調整後的效率有顯著改善,從 57.55% 降至 49.65%。第 22 頁概述了我們調整後的第二季度非利息收入和支出構成,供您參考。第 23 頁顯示了資產負債表要點和關鍵比率。我不會詳細介紹這一點,但我想請您注意這樣一個事實:本季度我們推動每股 TBV 增長 39 美元,同時我們的流動性頭寸增加了 85 億美元。
Turning to Page 24. Loans declined by $7.4 billion in the SVB segment, which drove down our total loan balances compared to the linked quarter. As Peter mentioned, our Global Fund Banking portfolio experienced elevated draws at the end of March and as a result, we anticipate a higher level of paydowns during the second quarter. Approximately 50% of the $7.4 billion decline was related to elevated draw repayments.
轉向第 24 頁。SVB 部門的貸款減少了 74 億美元,這導致我們的總貸款餘額較上一季度有所下降。正如 Peter 提到的,我們的全球基金銀行投資組合在 3 月底經歷了較高的提款,因此,我們預計第二季度的付款水平將會更高。 74 億美元的下降中大約有 50% 與提款還款額增加有關。
The challenges facing the venture capital industry are having a direct impact on the private market investment landscape, resulting in a difficult exit environment, lower fundraising numbers and fewer deals. New draws on existing lines are muted in April and May, given uncertainty in the industry post March events. However, we did see commitment activity for existing clients pick up in the month of June, as Peter mentioned. Despite industry headwinds, our legacy First Citizens portfolio continued to experience solid growth, including $1.4 billion or 12.6% annualized percent growth in the General Bank and $749 million or 10.5% annualized growth in the commercial bank.
風險投資行業面臨的挑戰直接影響私募市場投資格局,導致退出環境困難、融資數量減少和交易減少。鑑於 3 月份事件後行業的不確定性,4 月和 5 月現有線路的新提款活動較少。然而,正如 Peter 提到的,我們確實看到現有客戶的承諾活動在 6 月份有所增加。儘管存在行業逆風,我們的傳統 First Citizens 投資組合繼續實現穩健增長,其中綜合銀行的年化增長率為 14 億美元,即 12.6%,商業銀行的年化增長率為 7.49 億美元,即 10.5%。
Page 25 shows our loan composition by type and segment for your reference. Page 26 shows the deposits increased by $1.1 billion or 3.2% on an annualized basis from the linked quarter. We experienced $10.4 billion in growth in the direct bank, partially offset by a decline in SVB deposits. We have worked diligently to leverage the direct bank channel to increase balances to help fund loan growth in the general and commercial bank segments and to support legacy SVB.
第25頁按類型和細分顯示了我們的貸款構成,供您參考。第 26 頁顯示存款較上一季度增加了 11 億美元,即年化增長率 3.2%。我們的直接銀行業務增長了 104 億美元,部分被 SVB 存款下降所抵消。我們努力利用直接銀行渠道增加餘額,為普通銀行和商業銀行部門的貸款增長提供資金,並支持傳統的SVB。
We do anticipate continued deposit growth in the direct bank through the end of 2023, albeit at a slower pace. While this channel is higher cost compared to the traditional branch network, enabled us to reduce more expensive FHLB borrowings by approximately $6.1 billion during the second quarter. Importantly, while SVB deposits declined $8.4 billion sequentially, the majority of this occurred in April.
我們確實預計到 2023 年底,直接銀行的存款將持續增長,儘管增速較慢。雖然與傳統分行網絡相比,該渠道的成本較高,但我們在第二季度將更昂貴的 FHLB 借款減少了約 61 億美元。重要的是,雖然 SVB 存款環比減少 84 億美元,但其中大部分發生在 4 月份。
As Peter noted, we have worked to stabilize the franchise by performing outreach to key innovation economy partners and detailed market analysis to understand misconception so we can more quickly and effectively address them. We have also worked hard to keep client-facing team members and see and in front of our clients. As a result of these efforts, we have not seen a material change in deposit balances since we last reported, with SVB deposits remaining approximately $41 billion as of June 30. Our cost of deposits increased by 44 basis points during the quarter to 1.68%. The increase is representative of the impacts from the Fed rate hikes and our need to raise rates to stay competitive with our peers. The deposit composition by type, segment and insured uninsured breakdown are shown on Page 27.
正如彼得指出的那樣,我們通過與主要創新經濟合作夥伴進行外展和詳細的市場分析來了解誤解,從而努力穩定特許經營權,以便我們能夠更快、更有效地解決這些問題。我們還努力讓面向客戶的團隊成員保持在客戶面前。由於這些努力,自上次報告以來,我們沒有看到存款餘額發生重大變化,截至6 月30 日,SVB 存款仍約為410 億美元。本季度我們的存款成本增加了44 個基點,達到1.68% 。這一增幅代表了美聯儲加息的影響以及我們需要加息以保持與同行的競爭力。第 27 頁顯示了按類型、細分市場和已投保未投保細目分類的存款構成。
On Page 28, our balance sheet continues to be funded predominantly by deposits. We made progress this quarter rightsizing this as deposits increased to 78% of total funding, up from 75% last quarter. The FHLB borrowings we initiated in previous quarters had call features and we decreased those borrowings by approximately $6 billion this quarter, which is reflective of the deposit growth I just spoke to. Over the medium to long term, we plan to continue to drive the non-deposit concentration metrics lower by focusing on core deposit growth.
在第 28 頁,我們的資產負債表仍然主要由存款提供資金。本季度我們在調整規模方面取得了進展,存款佔總資金的比例從上季度的 75% 增加到 78%。我們在前幾個季度發起的 FHLB 借款具有提前贖回功能,本季度我們將這些借款減少了約 60 億美元,這反映了我剛才談到的存款增長。從中長期來看,我們計劃通過關注核心存款增長來繼續降低非存款集中度指標。
On Page 29, credit quality metrics continued to normalize. Net charge-offs totaled $157 million or 47 basis points for the quarter, up from $50 million or 27 basis points in the first quarter. The increase in charge-offs were primarily the result of $97 million in net charge-offs in the SVB segment, $85 million of which were reserved for at the acquisition date. In the general and Commercial Bank segments, net charge-offs were fairly consistent with prior quarters with most occurring in the large office real estate and small ticket equipment leasing portfolio.
第 29 頁,信用質量指標繼續正常化。本季度淨沖銷總額為 1.57 億美元,即 47 個基點,高於第一季度的 5000 萬美元,即 27 個基點。沖銷增加主要是由於 SVB 部門淨沖銷 9,700 萬美元,其中 8,500 萬美元在收購日預留。在一般銀行和商業銀行部門,淨沖銷與前幾個季度相當一致,大部分發生在大型辦公房地產和小額設備租賃組合中。
We guided to a net charge-off range of 35 to 45 basis points on our last call as we identified a few large innovation credits that would be and were charged off during the quarter. While we do expect some continued stress in the innovation portfolio, given the depressed levels of market funding, we don't expect quarterly charge-offs to remain at these levels. However, some of these loans are large and the charge-offs can be lumpy.
我們在上次電話會議中確定了 35 至 45 個基點的淨沖銷範圍,因為我們確定了一些將在本季度沖銷的大型創新信貸。儘管我們確實預計創新投資組合將繼續面臨壓力,但鑑於市場融資水平低迷,我們預計季度沖銷額不會維持在這樣的水平。然而,其中一些貸款金額很大,沖銷可能會很不穩定。
Moving to the bottom of the page, the nonaccrual loan ratio increased 10 basis points from the sequential quarter to 0.7%. The increase was primarily concentrated in real estate finance within the Commercial Bank segment. This is where our largest general office exposure is, which continues to be impacted by remote work dynamics, elevated interest rates, vacancy rates, lease rates, capital requirements and near-term maturities. Our allowance ratio increased by 7 basis points to 1.23% during the quarter.
移至頁面底部,非應計貸款比率環比上升 10 個基點至 0.7%。這一增長主要集中在商業銀行部門的房地產金融領域。這是我們最大的普通辦公室風險所在,它繼續受到遠程工作動態、利率上升、空置率、租賃率、資本要求和近期到期日的影響。本季度我們的撥備比率增加了 7 個基點至 1.23%。
Page 30 provides a roll forward of our ACL from the linked quarter. The largest driver of the increase in the ACL was deterioration in macroeconomic forecasts related to declining CRE index values in both the baseline and downside scenarios. Other factors such as portfolio mix and credit quality also contributed to increases in reserves but on a much smaller scale. These increases were partially offset by lower loan balances in the SVB segment and adjustments to fair value discounts on loans acquired from SVB. As depicted on the bottom left-hand corner, the ACL provides 2.6x coverage of annualized quarterly net charge-offs and covered nonaccrual loans 1.8x.
第 30 頁提供了我們的 ACL 從鏈接季度的前滾。 ACL 增長的最大驅動因素是與基準情景和下行情景中 CRE 指數值下降相關的宏觀經濟預測惡化。投資組合組合和信貸質量等其他因素也促成了儲備的增加,但規模要小得多。這些增長被 SVB 部門貸款餘額減少以及從 SVB 獲得的貸款公允價值折扣調整所部分抵消。如左下角所示,ACL 提供 2.6 倍的年化季度淨沖銷覆蓋率和 1.8 倍的非應計貸款覆蓋率。
On Pages 31 and 32, we highlight our total nonowner-occupied CRE exposure which was 12.8% of total loans at quarter end with general office loans totaling $2.8 billion or 2.1% of total loans. Page 32 includes information on the general office portfolio, which is well diversified geographically with limited exposure to some of the hardest hit markets including San Francisco, Chicago and New York, which on a combined basis totaled $403 million or 14% of the total general office portfolio.
在第 31 頁和第 32 頁,我們強調了我們的非業主自用 CRE 風險總額,佔季度末貸款總額的 12.8%,其中一般辦公貸款總額為 28 億美元,佔貸款總額的 2.1%。第32 頁包含有關普通辦公室投資組合的信息,該投資組合在地域上非常多元化,但對舊金山、芝加哥和紐約等一些受打擊最嚴重的市場的敞口有限,這些市場的總金額為4.03 億美元,佔普通辦公室總額的14%文件夾。
As we shared on our last call of the $2.8 billion in general office loans, the most significant credit risk is in our commercial bank, which had general office loans totaling $1.1 billion at the end of the quarter representing less than 1% of total loans. This portfolio consists primarily of Class B repositioned and bridge loans and is where we have seen deterioration in past dues, criticized assets and charge-offs. We are carrying an ACL on those loans of 9.02% compared to an ACL on the overall general office portfolio of 4.44%.
正如我們在上次關於28 億美元一般辦公貸款的電話會議中所分享的那樣,最重大的信用風險來自我們的商業銀行,截至本季度末,該銀行的一般辦公貸款總額為11 億美元,佔貸款總額的不到1%。該投資組合主要由 B 類重新定位貸款和過橋貸款組成,我們發現逾期欠款、不良資產和沖銷情況惡化。我們對這些貸款的 ACL 為 9.02%,而對整體辦公樓投資組合的 ACL 為 4.44%。
Reserves on both of these portfolios increased over the prior quarter due to increased specific reserves as well as deterioration in the CECL macro forecast. Most of the remaining general office exposure is in the general bank. This portfolio is more granular in nature from the smaller average loan size and some level of guarantor support or strong credit tenants under long-term leases. We have not seen material deterioration in this portfolio to date.
由於特定準備金增加以及 CECL 宏觀預測惡化,這兩個投資組合的準備金均較上一季度有所增加。剩餘的一般辦公室風險敞口大部分位於一般銀行。該投資組合本質上更加細化,因為平均貸款規模較小,並且有一定程度的擔保人支持或長期租賃下的強信用租戶。迄今為止,我們尚未看到該投資組合出現實質性惡化。
On Page 33, our capital position remains strong with all ratios above or in the upper end of our target ranges. At the end of the second quarter, our CET1 ratio was 13.38%, and our total risk-based capital ratio was 15.84%. The 85 basis points increase in our CET1 ratio was primarily the result of continued net income growth.
在第 33 頁,我們的資本狀況依然強勁,所有比率均高於或處於我們目標範圍的上限。截至二季度末,我們的CET1比率為13.38%,總風險資本比率為15.84%。我們的 CET1 比率增加 85 個基點主要是淨利潤持續增長的結果。
Before I discuss our outlook, Page 34 demonstrates that we continue to operate with a strong balance sheet and solid capital, liquidity and credit quality positions. I'll conclude with our 2023 outlook on Page 36. The second column lists our second quarter 2023 results for each metric. The numbers for noninterest income and expense are adjusted for notable items. Column 3 provides our guidance for the third quarter of 2023 and column 4 for the full year.
在討論我們的前景之前,第 34 頁表明我們將繼續以強勁的資產負債表和堅實的資本、流動性和信用質量狀況運營。我將在第 36 頁上對 2023 年展望進行總結。第二列列出了每個指標的 2023 年第二季度結果。非利息收入和支出的數字針對重要項目進行了調整。第 3 欄提供了我們對 2023 年第三季度的指導,第 4 欄提供了全年的指導。
Moving to loans. We expect that loans will remain essentially flat to the second quarter in the balances. We anticipate further declines in the global fund banking business from lower levels of venture capital investments, lower capital deployment and higher interest rates as well as the lagged impact of being out of the market for the early months of 2023. We do see flat to modest declines in our tech and life sciences business as market activity continues to be depressed.
轉向貸款。我們預計第二季度貸款餘額將基本持平。我們預計,由於風險資本投資水平下降、資本部署減少和利率上升,以及 2023 年前幾個月退出市場的滯後影響,全球基金銀行業務將進一步下滑。我們確實認為全球基金銀行業務將持平至溫和由於市場活動持續低迷,我們的科技和生命科學業務出現下滑。
As a result, we expect SVB loan balances to be in the mid-$50 billion range by year-end down from $59 billion at the end of the second quarter. The declines in GFB will be largely offset by mid-single-digit percentage growth in the general commercial banking segment as we expect continued momentum in our branch network, industry verticals, middle market and equipment finance lines of business.
因此,我們預計到年底 SVB 貸款餘額將從第二季度末的 590 億美元降至 500 億美元左右。由於我們預計我們的分行網絡、垂直行業、中間市場和設備融資業務線將繼續保持增長勢頭,因此 GFB 的下降將在很大程度上被一般商業銀行業務的中個位數百分比增長所抵消。
Moving to deposits. We expect a low single-digit percentage decline. While we're encouraged by the stabilization of SVB deposits since April, we anticipate that SVB clients will continue to experience a level of cash burn that exceeds funds sourced from fundraising. It's worth noting that we expect broader market VC funding to remain subdued in the range of $30 billion to $40 billion per quarter for the remainder of 2023, which is significantly down from prior years.
轉向存款。我們預計下降幅度較低,個位數百分比。雖然我們對 4 月份以來 SVB 存款的穩定感到鼓舞,但我們預計 SVB 客戶的現金消耗將繼續超過籌款資金。值得注意的是,我們預計 2023 年剩餘時間裡,更廣泛市場的風險投資將保持在每季度 300 億至 400 億美元的範圍內,這比往年大幅下降。
Consequently, we're projecting a $4 billion to $6 billion decline in the SVB deposit book through the end of the year. That said, we are laser-focused on actively partnering with our existing portfolio of clients and the SVB team is working diligently to obtain and win back balances, which we believe will partially offset some of this natural runoff. We are expecting the SVB decline to be partially offset by a $3 billion increase in direct bank deposits.
因此,我們預計到今年年底 SVB 存款簿將減少 40 億至 60 億美元。也就是說,我們專注於與現有客戶組合積極合作,SVB 團隊正在努力爭取並贏回餘額,我們相信這將部分抵消部分自然流失。我們預計 SVB 的下降將被直接銀行存款增加 30 億美元所部分抵消。
Moving to interest rates. Our forecast follows the implied forward curve. We forecast that the Fed funds rate has peaked at 5.5%. From there, we anticipate the effective rate will remain unchanged for the rest of 2023 and into the beginning months of 2024. On to net interest income. While we expect the absolute level of margin and net interest income to remain elevated, we do expect them to begin to decline in the coming quarters compared to the second quarter.
轉向利率。我們的預測遵循隱含的遠期曲線。我們預測聯邦基金利率已見頂5.5%。從那時起,我們預計 2023 年剩餘時間和 2024 年初的實際利率將保持不變。關於淨利息收入。雖然我們預計利潤率和淨利息收入的絕對水平將保持在較高水平,但我們確實預計未來幾個季度與第二季度相比將開始下降。
This will occur as the pace of accretion moderates, and we see continued pressure on deposit pricing. Accretion income had an approximate 50 basis point impact on our margin in the second quarter and absent the impact of accelerated loan repayments and due to the recognition of accretion on shorter duration loans, we expect this to moderate to the 30 to 35 basis points range in the coming quarters. The impact of lower accretion and higher deposit costs were partially -- will be partially offset by higher loan and investment yields.
隨著增長速度放緩,這種情況將會發生,而且我們看到存款定價面臨持續壓力。增值收入對我們第二季度的利潤率產生了大約50 個基點的影響,並且在沒有加速貸款償還的影響的情況下,並且由於認識到短期貸款的增值,我們預計這一影響將在2019 年下降到30 至35 個基點範圍。未來幾個季度。較低的增值和較高的存款成本的影響將被較高的貸款和投資收益率部分抵消。
We anticipate our full-cycle beta increasing to 35% to 40%, up from our previous estimate of 30% to 35%, which is due to rates higher for longer, leading to increased competitive pressure on deposits as well as the sizable increase in our direct bank from what was close to $19 billion at the end of the first quarter to an expected mid-$30 billion range by year-end. We project net interest income in the third quarter in the range of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. At the same time, we are raising full year net interest income to a range of $6.4 billion to $6.6 billion reflecting strong second quarter results as well as the margin dynamics I previously mentioned.
我們預計全週期貝塔係數將從之前的 30% 至 35% 上升至 35% 至 40%,這是由於利率持續較高的時間較長,導致存款的競爭壓力增加以及存款的大幅增長。我們的直接銀行業務從第一季度末的近190 億美元增至年底的預期300 億美元左右。我們預計第三季度淨利息收入在 18 億美元至 19 億美元之間。與此同時,我們將全年淨利息收入提高到 64 億美元至 66 億美元的範圍,反映了第二季度的強勁業績以及我之前提到的利潤率動態。
On the net charge-offs, we expect third quarter annualized and full year net charge-offs to be in the 35 to 45 basis points range. Despite most of the portfolio performing well, we expect to see charge-offs concentrated in the commercial bank, general office real estate and small equipment leasing spaces. While we do expect some continued losses in the innovation portfolio, given the depressed levels of market funding, we don't expect the quarterly level of charge-offs to remain at second quarter levels. We expect SVB net charge-offs in the range of 30 to 40 basis points in the coming quarters.
在淨沖銷方面,我們預計第三季度年化和全年淨沖銷將在 35 至 45 個基點範圍內。儘管大多數投資組合表現良好,但我們預計沖銷將集中在商業銀行、一般辦公房地產和小型設備租賃領域。儘管我們確實預計創新投資組合將繼續出現虧損,但鑑於市場融資水平低迷,我們預計季度沖銷水平不會保持在第二季度的水平。我們預計未來幾個季度 SVB 的淨沖銷將在 30 至 40 個基點之間。
Given the size of the credits in both the legacy CIT and SVB portfolios, charging off 1 or 2 more large credit than anticipated can have a sizable impact on the overall quarterly net charge-off ratio and can ultimately take us to the higher end of our 35 to 45 basis points range. On to noninterest income. On an adjusted basis, we expect $420 million to $450 million in noninterest income in the third quarter.
考慮到傳統 CIT 和 SVB 投資組合中的信貸規模,沖銷比預期多 1 或 2 個大額信貸可能會對整體季度淨沖銷率產生相當大的影響,並最終使我們達到更高的目標。 35至45個基點範圍。關於非利息收入。在調整後的基礎上,我們預計第三季度的非利息收入為 4.2 億至 4.5 億美元。
We were reassured on the level of SVB-related noninterest income in the second quarter and see this total contribution settling in at approximately $140 million to $150 million per quarter or roughly $560 million to $600 million on an annual basis. On an apples-to-apples basis of the SVB businesses that were acquired, this is closer to $300 million per quarter in 2022. So we are expecting the run rate to be slightly less than half of that given client attrition especially in some of the off-balance sheet suite products.
我們對第二季度與 SVB 相關的非利息收入水平感到放心,並預計這一總貢獻將穩定在每季度約 1.4 億至 1.5 億美元,或每年約 5.6 億至 6 億美元。按照所收購的SVB 業務的同類比較,到2022 年,這一數字接近每季度3 億美元。因此,考慮到客戶流失,尤其是在某些領域,我們預計運行率將略低於該運行率的一半。表外套件產品。
With respect to legacy First Citizens, we still have momentum in our wealth and rail businesses. While maintenance expenses are expected to increase in rail, utilization increased to over 98%. And for the past 3 quarters, renewal rates have been at or above 120% of the previous quarter's rate.
就傳統的第一公民而言,我們的財富和鐵路業務仍然具有動力。雖然鐵路的維護費用預計會增加,但利用率將增加至 98% 以上。過去 3 個季度,續訂率均達到或高於上一季度的 120%。
Moving to noninterest expense. We do not include expected acquisition expenses related to SVB estimated at $650 million with approximately 60% recognized in '23 and the remainder in '24. So approximately $380 million this year. For the remainder of 2023, we anticipate adjusted noninterest expense will move lower to the $1.15 billion to $1.2 billion range per quarter as we further recognize cost saves. We do expect a onetime $30 million FDIC assessment to be recognized in the third quarter. This expense will be considered notable and is not included in our adjusted noninterest income forecast -- expense forecast, sorry.
轉向非利息支出。我們不包括與 SVB 相關的預期收購費用(估計為 6.5 億美元),其中約 60% 在 23 年確認,其餘部分在 24 年確認。今年約為 3.8 億美元。在 2023 年剩餘時間內,隨著我們進一步認識到成本節省,我們預計調整後的非利息支出將降至每季度 11.5 億美元至 12 億美元的範圍。我們確實預計 FDIC 一次性評估的 3000 萬美元將在第三季度得到確認。這筆費用將被視為值得注意,並且不包含在我們調整後的非利息收入預測中——抱歉,費用預測。
We made meaningful progress on our path to achieving cost saves in the range of $650 million to $780 million by the end of '24 and pushed slightly ahead of the schedule this quarter primarily due to efficiency reductions in the back office. At this juncture, we expect to have taken over $400 million out of the expense run rate by the end of 2023, putting us slightly above 50% of the high end of our cost synergies estimate. As a reminder, most of the synergies will be driven by consolidation of redundant or duplicate back-office processes and systems as we remain focused on supporting the existing front lines of business and their clients.
我們在 2024 年底實現成本節省 6.5 億至 7.8 億美元方面取得了有意義的進展,並且本季度略微提前了計劃,這主要是由於後台效率的降低。目前,我們預計到 2023 年底,費用運行率將超過 4 億美元,略高於成本協同效應估計上限的 50%。提醒一下,大部分協同效應將通過整合冗餘或重複的後台流程和系統來驅動,因為我們仍然專注於支持現有的一線業務及其客戶。
Moving forward, we expect to maintain our efficiency ratio in the low 50s, slightly higher than the second quarter as lower margin was partially offset by continued recognition of cost saves. On the income taxes, we expect our corporate tax rate to be in the 26.5% to 27.5% range, in line with our previous update as our revenue distribution is heavily weighted to higher tax jurisdictions such as California and New York, and our pre-existing tax benefits are spread amongst a higher -- amongst a larger pretax income base.
展望未來,我們預計效率比率將維持在 50 左右,略高於第二季度,因為較低的利潤率被持續認識到成本節省所部分抵消。在所得稅方面,我們預計公司稅率將在 26.5% 至 27.5% 範圍內,這與我們之前的更新一致,因為我們的收入分配主要集中在加州和紐約等稅收較高的司法管轄區,而且我們的預現有的稅收優惠分佈在較高的稅前收入基礎中。
As for 2023 EPS, we previously guided to an adjusted range of $150 to $161 per share. The range was derived from GAAP earnings but subtracted out the after-tax onetime impacts of the SVB acquisition including the preliminary bargain purchase gain, the day 2 CECL adjustment and estimated SVB-related acquisition expenses. Based upon our updated forecast, we would guide to a new adjusted range of $156 to $167 per share.
至於2023年每股收益,我們此前指導調整後的區間為每股150美元至161美元。該範圍源自 GAAP 收益,但減去了 SVB 收購的一次性稅後影響,包括初步討價還價購買收益、第 2 天 CECL 調整以及估計的 SVB 相關收購費用。根據我們更新的預測,我們將調整後的指導區間調整為每股 156 美元至 167 美元。
The change from prior guidance is primarily related to higher net interest income projection given the absolute rate environment, partially offset by higher provision expense. Expenses are also slightly favorable to our previous forecast as we put slightly ahead on merger synergies. This forecast excludes the preliminary bargain purchase gain, the day 2 CECL impact and the expected $30 million FDIC assessment as well as approximately $380 million of expected acquisition expenses in 2023.
先前指引的變化主要與考慮到絕對利率環境的較高淨利息收入預測有關,但部分被較高的撥備費用所抵消。由於我們對合併協同效應的預測略有提前,因此費用也略好於我們之前的預測。該預測不包括初步討價還價購買收益、CECL 第 2 天的影響和預期 3000 萬美元的 FDIC 評估以及 2023 年約 3.8 億美元的預期收購費用。
To conclude, we are excited about our future prospects and believe that we are well positioned to continue delivering long-term value to our shareholders, clients, customers, associates and communities. With that, I will turn it over to the operator for instructions for the question-and-answer portion of the call.
總而言之,我們對未來的前景感到興奮,並相信我們有能力繼續為股東、客戶、客戶、員工和社區提供長期價值。這樣,我會將其轉交給接線員,以獲取有關通話問答部分的說明。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Brady Gailey from KBW.
(操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。
Brady Matthew Gailey - MD
Brady Matthew Gailey - MD
I wanted to start with the share buyback. I understand the reasons why the buyback doesn't make sense for you guys for the back half of this year. But when do you feel like you'll have the clarity you needed to more seriously consider a share buyback? It doesn't sound like that will be until next year in 2024.
我想從股票回購開始。我理解今年下半年回購對你們來說沒有意義的原因。但是,您什麼時候覺得自己能夠更清楚地考慮股票回購呢?聽起來要到明年 2024 年才會實現。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
That's a correct assumption. We will be submitting a capital plan next year, and we will consider the potential impacts of these regulatory changes on our capital ratios. But we'll certainly be considering a share repurchase plan in that capital plan. But we would not resume repurchases in '23. We would anticipate all things go well that will resume in '24.
這是一個正確的假設。我們將於明年提交資本計劃,我們將考慮這些監管變化對我們資本比率的潛在影響。但我們肯定會在該資本計劃中考慮股票回購計劃。但我們不會在 23 年恢復回購。我們預計一切都會順利,並會在 24 年恢復。
Brady Matthew Gailey - MD
Brady Matthew Gailey - MD
Okay. And then I know we've talked about the lower risk weighting from the loss share assets from Silicon Valley being a benefit the common equity Tier 1 of about 200 basis points. How fast do you expect to see that? Like are we talking a matter of quarters? Or is this a longer-term matter of years where we see that slow increase in risk-weighted assets?
好的。然後我知道我們已經討論過矽谷損失份額資產帶來的較低風險權重,這有利於普通股一級約 200 個基點。您希望多快看到這一點?就像我們在談論季度問題嗎?或者這是一個長期問題,我們看到風險加權資產緩慢增長?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Yes. Brady, we are burning those over a 3-year period, which really approximates the life of the loans that are subject to loss share. So in our capital projections, we had it burning off straight line over 3 years.
是的。布雷迪,我們將在三年內銷毀這些貸款,這實際上接近於受損失份額影響的貸款的期限。因此,在我們的資本預測中,我們讓它在三年內直線燃燒。
Brady Matthew Gailey - MD
Brady Matthew Gailey - MD
Okay. And just lastly for me, accretable yield was around $240 million in the second quarter. So a fairly large amount. How do you expect that to trend for the next few quarters?
好的。最後對我來說,第二季度的可增加收益約為 2.4 億美元。所以數量相當大。您預計未來幾個季度的趨勢如何?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
We're expecting it to drop to $160 million range in the third quarter and the $150 million range in the fourth.
我們預計第三季度將降至 1.6 億美元,第四季度將降至 1.5 億美元。
Operator
Operator
Our next question today comes from Stephen Scouten, Piper Sandler.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 Stephen Scouten、Piper Sandler。
Stephen Kendall Scouten - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Stephen Kendall Scouten - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Yes. I guess I missed a little bit of your response there, Craig, on the share repurchase. I guess my follow-up to that or question would be, is that kind of an internal decision as you evaluate those capital -- the new capital requirements? Or was there any sort of regulatory pushback on the desire to do a repurchase here in '23?
是的。克雷格,我想我錯過了你對股票回購的一些回應。我想我對此或問題的後續行動是,當你評估這些資本時,這是否是一種內部決定——新的資本要求?或者 23 年回購的願望是否受到任何形式的監管阻力?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Yes, it was an internal decision.
是的,這是一個內部決定。
Stephen Kendall Scouten - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Stephen Kendall Scouten - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. Okay. And then on the -- got it -- no, no, that's great. And on the large bank team that you guys have implemented in trying to find these gaps and so forth, has there been anything material identified to date that you can speak to? Or is that still pretty early stages as they look to identifying these gaps or planning remediation?
知道了。好的。然後——明白了——不,不,那太好了。在你們為尋找這些差距等而組建的大型銀行團隊中,迄今為止是否有任何可以與您交談的材料?或者,當他們尋求找出這些差距或計劃補救措施時,這仍然是相當早期的階段嗎?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Yes. We really don't have any significant gaps. We have identified gaps, but they're not things that we can't overcome. So I think we are well on our way to meeting the requirements of the category 4 bank, and our risk management program meets the expectation for a large bank program and it is prepared to expand it to include the SVB businesses. So we feel like we're in really good shape there.
是的。我們確實沒有任何重大差距。我們已經發現了差距,但這些差距並不是我們無法克服的。因此,我認為我們正在很好地滿足第 4 類銀行的要求,我們的風險管理計劃滿足了對大型銀行計劃的期望,並準備將其擴展到包括 SVB 業務。所以我們感覺我們在那裡的狀態非常好。
Stephen Kendall Scouten - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Stephen Kendall Scouten - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Okay. Great. And then really last thing for me is just if I look at the -- and the noninterest revenue guide within the slide deck, it implies a little bit of downside, I guess, from here, are there any specific categories where you expect to see some declines in the back half of the year? Or what's kind of embedded within that guidance there?
好的。偉大的。然後對我來說真正的最後一件事是,如果我看一下幻燈片中的非利息收入指南,它意味著一點缺點,我想,從這裡開始,是否有您期望看到的任何特定類別下半年會出現一些下滑嗎?或者該指南中包含哪些內容?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Well, if you look at just the PPR in general, as you start with net interest income, it's really the impact of that lower accretion going forward. So the headline margin will decline, although ex accretion, we still are seeing some within earning assets. So that's the most significant factor. We are guiding slightly down from the second quarter on noninterest income, and that's really FX fees and down due to lower global fund banking business and some off-balance sheet decline -- management fees for declines in off-balance sheet funds managed. Those 2 things are pretty much the factor there, lower PPNR. But we're really pleased where that's going to -- where we're going to turn out from a PPNR standpoint and a net income standpoint in the next 2 quarters.
好吧,如果你只看一般的 PPR,當你從淨利息收入開始時,這實際上是未來增長較低的影響。因此,總體利潤率將會下降,儘管除此之外,我們仍然看到一些盈利資產。所以這是最重要的因素。我們對非利息收入的指導比第二季度略有下降,這實際上是外匯費用的下降,因為全球基金銀行業務的下降和表外資產的一些下降——管理表外基金的管理費下降。這兩件事幾乎就是其中的因素,即較低的 PPNR。但我們對未來兩個季度的結果感到非常高興——從 PPNR 的角度和淨利潤的角度來看。
Operator
Operator
Our next question today comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons from D.A. Davidson.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的凱文·菲茨西蒙斯 (Kevin Fitzsimmons)。戴維森。
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
I'm just curious, as you look longer term, obviously, the loan-to-deposit ratio got impacted by the deal. So now not appearing from a top level is quite as liquid as it once was. But how do you -- what do you aspire for that ratio to be longer term? How do you see it trending? Do you see it trending down into the 80s? Or are you very comfortable with it, where it is right here?
我只是很好奇,從長遠來看,貸存比顯然受到了這筆交易的影響。因此,現在不再從高層出現,就和以前一樣流動了。但是,從長遠來看,您希望如何實現這一比率?您如何看待它的趨勢?你認為它有下降到80年代的趨勢嗎?或者你對它感到非常滿意嗎?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
We don't really believe that a loan-to-deposit ratio of 95% higher is sustainable. So where we would target that would be sort of in the mid-80s, if I had to put a number on it. When you look at sort of our earnings asset mix we like where the percentage of loans is to earning assets. So it's really focusing in on the right-hand side of the balance sheet and replacing borrowings to core deposit growth. So that would be our goal. But right now, loans sitting at around 69% of earning assets is right where we like it. In fact, we get to be 70% to 74%. In conjunction though with an 85% loan-to-deposit ratio.
我們並不認為 95% 的貸存比是可持續的。如果我必須給出一個數字的話,我們的目標是在 80 年代中期。當你查看我們的收益資產組合時,我們喜歡貸款佔收益資產的百分比。因此,它真正關注的是資產負債表的右側,並將藉款替換為核心存款增長。這就是我們的目標。但目前,貸款佔盈利資產的 69% 左右正是我們所喜歡的。事實上,我們的比例是 70% 到 74%。但貸存比為 85%。
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. And I apologize if I missed this before, but the mix shift that's going on the deposits, it looked like noninterest-bearing obviously came down at a good clip and probably a lot of that is due to SVB. Where do you -- where and when do you see that settling that percentage of noninterest-bearing?
知道了。如果我之前錯過了這一點,我深表歉意,但存款的混合變化,看起來無息存款明顯下降得很好,而且可能很大一部分是由於 SVB。您在哪裡——何時何地看到解決無息百分比的問題?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Well, on the rate cycle turns, I think you're right. I mean, we entered the quarter 39% noninterest-bearing, we exited at 32%. I mean ultimately, in normal business cycle, we like to see our noninterest-bearing around 40%. So where it was coming into this transaction is a good spot for us. And then beyond that, we like to see core checking around 65%, which includes now accounts and noninterest bearing. And right now, we're around 50%, and that's totally due to the rate environment. So we see that optimizing as the interest rate environment moderates going forward.
嗯,關於利率週期的轉變,我認為你是對的。我的意思是,我們進入本季度時的無息利率為 39%,退出時的利率為 32%。我的意思是,最終,在正常的商業周期中,我們希望看到我們的無息利率在 40% 左右。因此,這筆交易的進行地點對我們來說是一個好時機。除此之外,我們希望看到核心檢查率在 65% 左右,其中包括現有賬戶和無息賬戶。目前,我們的比率約為 50%,這完全是由於利率環境所致。因此,我們認為隨著利率環境的緩和,未來會出現優化。
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it. And 1 last one for me. What is the rough percentage of the direct bank right now of total deposits? And do you have any upper limit on what you want that to be? Or do you view that as just -- if that's better than borrowing, you're willing to take that up with no upper limit.
知道了。最後一張是給我的。目前直銷銀行存款佔總存款的比例大概是多少?您希望達到的目標有上限嗎?或者你認為這只是——如果這比借錢更好,你願意無上限地借錢。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
It's around 20% of our deposit base, the branch network remains overwhelmingly largest concentration around 40%. We do see those deposits as core. Obviously, they're a little bit more expensive, but they are at the margin, less expensive than FHLB borrowings. So -- and 91% of those deposits are insured. So we view those as core deposits, but acknowledge they're more expensive than branch network deposits.
它約占我們存款基礎的 20%,但分行網絡仍然是壓倒性最大的集中度,約為 40%。我們確實將這些存款視為核心。顯然,它們的價格要貴一些,但它們處於邊際,比 FHLB 借款便宜。因此,91% 的存款都有保險。因此,我們將這些視為核心存款,但承認它們比分行網絡存款更昂貴。
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Kevin Patrick Fitzsimmons - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Right. And I guess as the rate environment evolves maybe over time, those would get replaced in a different rate environment by branch-based deposits, this sounds reasonable?
正確的。我想隨著利率環境的發展,也許隨著時間的推移,這些利率環境會被基於分行的存款所取代,這聽起來合理嗎?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
That sounds reasonable.
聽起來很有道理。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Brian Foran from Autonomous Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Brian Foran。
Brian D. Foran - Senior Analyst of US Regional Banks
Brian D. Foran - Senior Analyst of US Regional Banks
Maybe on that loan-to-deposit point, I mean, what would be like a rough time line to get back to the mid-80s in your mind or a range? Are we talking multiple quarters or multiple years or somewhere in between?
也許在貸存比方面,我的意思是,回到您心目中的 80 年代中期的粗略時間線或範圍是什麼樣的?我們談論的是多個季度、多年還是介於兩者之間的某個時間?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Yes. It's multiple years and it sort of tethered to this note with the FDIC. So I would put it out 3 to 4 years to get that ratio into that range.
是的。已經有很多年了,它與 FDIC 的這張票據有某種聯繫。所以我會花 3 到 4 年的時間才能使這個比率達到這個範圍。
Brian D. Foran - Senior Analyst of US Regional Banks
Brian D. Foran - Senior Analyst of US Regional Banks
Okay. And then I know it's too early for 2024 outlooks and guidance. But just when you think about the 4Q NII, I think everything ties out to about $1.8 billion reported and $1.65 billion ex accretable yield, if I got all your comments right. Is that $1.65 billion kind of a base to work off of in your mind? Or are there still obvious puts or takes? I guess is that like a stabilized run rate that then maybe you could sustain or grow off of in your mind? Or is there still some pressure to think about in the first half of '24.
好的。然後我知道現在對 2024 年進行展望和指導還為時過早。但當你想到第四季度的 NII 時,我認為一切都與報告的 18 億美元和 16.5 億美元的前可增加收益率有關(如果我所有的評論都正確的話)。在您看來,16.5 億美元是一個可以用來工作的基礎嗎?還是仍然存在明顯的看跌期權或看跌期權?我想這就像一個穩定的運行速度,然後你可以在你的腦海中維持或成長嗎?或者說24年上半年是否還有一些壓力需要考慮。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Well, in '24, if you look at the forward curve, there's 5 rate cuts projected next year, given our asset sensitivity, we would have both declining net interest income in absolute dollars and in margin if that was to occur, although I think our margin will be very respectable compared to peers even in that environment. But I would work off of the $1.8 billion to $1.9 base and then consider what 5 rate cuts might do on the back half of '24.
好吧,在24 年,如果你看看遠期曲線,預計明年會有5 次降息,考慮到我們的資產敏感性,如果發生這種情況,我們的淨利息收入絕對值和利潤率都會下降,儘管我認為即使在這種環境下,與同行相比,我們的利潤率也將非常可觀。但我會以 18 億美元至 1.9 美元為基礎,然後考慮 24 年下半年 5 次降息可能會產生什麼影響。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.
我們的下一個問題來自詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的克里斯托弗·馬里納克。
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
I wanted to follow back up, Craig and team on the liquidity. If you look at the liquidity information you've given us, would you already be kind of at the full LCR if that's imposed on the new capital guidelines?
我想跟進克雷格和團隊的流動性情況。如果您查看您向我們提供的流動性信息,如果將其強加於新的資本指導方針,您是否已經了解了完整的流動性覆蓋率?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Yes, I think we would exceed it.
是的,我認為我們會超越它。
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Okay. That's what I thought. I just wanted to verify that. Great. And then is there anything that you are doing or have done here in the last several months about sort of retaining staff? Is there anything kind of different that you've implemented now that you've had a full quarter to integrate SVB?
好的。我也這麼想。我只是想驗證一下。偉大的。那麼,在過去的幾個月裡,您正在做或已經做過什麼關於留住員工的事情嗎?既然您已經用了整整一個季度的時間來集成 SVB,那麼您實施的措施是否有所不同?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Are you speaking with respect to SVB or just in general?
您所說的是SVB 還是一般情況?
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Really SVB.
真的是SVB。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
We have retention and severance payments promised in terms of our merger costs that I just mentioned. So we do have retention. Peter, I think you're doing -- I think we're doing a great job keeping our revenue producing bankers in place. So all of that sort of accrued and ends up in the run rate. So like we're doing really well with retention.
我們已經根據我剛才提到的合併成本承諾了保留金和遣散費。所以我們確實有保留。彼得,我認為你正在做——我認為我們在保持創收銀行家的就位方面做得很好。因此,所有這些都會累積並最終計入運行率。就像我們在保留方面做得非常好一樣。
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Christopher William Marinac - Director of Research and Banks & Thrifts Analyst
Great. Okay. And then just final thing for me is, did the unfunded commitment reserve change at all? Or was that stable in the quarter?
偉大的。好的。對我來說最後一件事是,無資金投入的承諾儲備金是否發生了變化?或者本季度情況穩定嗎?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
It was fairly stable. It declined like $12 million to $15 million range.
相當穩定。其跌幅約為 1200 萬至 1500 萬美元。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Brody Preston from UBS.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪·普雷斯頓。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
I think I'm last, which is good because I am with a handful of questions. wanted to ask if you have to go through CCAR in 2024 and how much more in expenses do you think you need to build for the enhanced regulation?
我想我是最後一個,這很好,因為我有一些問題。想問一下2024年是否需要辦理CCAR,您認為加強監管還需要增加多少費用?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
The expenses are baked in. We have the resources, although we're constantly hiring talent. So the numbers we talk about in terms of run rate include heightened expenses to meet the regulatory standards.
費用已計入其中。儘管我們不斷招聘人才,但我們擁有資源。因此,我們在運行率方面談論的數字包括為滿足監管標準而增加的費用。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Okay. And do you have to go through CCAR in '24?
好的。 24年必須要通過CCAR嗎?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
So '24, we have to submit a capital plan to the Fed. So we're subject to the capital plan rules. '25, we become CCAR -- a CCAR bank, but given our category 4 size, we will not submit CCAR until 2026.
因此,24 年,我們必須向美聯儲提交資本計劃。因此,我們必須遵守資本計劃規則。 '25,我們成為 CCAR——一家 CCAR 銀行,但考慮到我們的 4 類規模,我們要到 2026 年才會提交 CCAR。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Got it. On the loss share agreement, do you have a dollar amount on the estimated like total amount covered by the loss share? And then for the $97 million NCOs, do you recover any of that from the loss share?
知道了。在損失分擔協議上,您是否有損失分擔所涵蓋的估計總金額的美元金額?那麼對於 9700 萬美元的 NCO,您是否可以從損失份額中收回其中的任何部分?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
It's -- Robert's telling me, it's $64 billion.
羅伯特告訴我,這是 640 億美元。
Robert Hawley
Robert Hawley
Around $64 billion.
約640億美元。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
The first loss tranche is $5 billion and we don't anticipate losses nearing that. So we don't anticipate reimbursements from the FDIC for charge offs.
第一個損失部分為 50 億美元,我們預計損失不會接近這個數字。因此,我們預計 FDIC 不會報銷沖銷費用。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Got it. And what drove the extra $52 million of NCOs from SVB above the $45 million that you ID'd last quarter? Like was that even on the cusp of being okay, but you decided to move on from something?
知道了。是什麼促使 SVB 額外提供 5,200 萬美元的 NCO 費用,高於您上季度確定的 4,500 萬美元?就像是即使在一切都好起來的時候,你還是決定放棄某些事情?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
In terms of our charge-offs, yes.
就我們的沖銷而言,是的。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Yes, yes. Just the additional -- you called out $97 million of SVB related NCOs. Last quarter, you had flagged $45 million specifically in the deck. I was just wondering what drove you to move on from the other $52 million.
是的是的。只是額外的——你調撥了 9700 萬美元的 SVB 相關 NCO。上個季度,您在牌組中專門標記了 4500 萬美元。我只是想知道是什麼促使你放棄剩下的 5200 萬美元。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
We didn't decompose the $11 million delta. So the SVB charge offs were $96 million, we reserved for $85 million. The other $11 million would be in the general reserve.
我們沒有分解 1100 萬美元的增量。因此,SVB 沖銷額為 9600 萬美元,我們預留了 8500 萬美元。另外 1100 萬美元將存入一般儲備金。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Yes. I was talking more to the -- you had called out $45 million specifically that you had reserved for last quarter that was planning on being charged off, but you charged off $85 million that you had reserved for this quarter. I was just wondering what the -- like if there was any reason for that.
是的。我說的更多的是——你專門撥出了為上季度預留的 4500 萬美元,計劃沖銷,但你沖銷了為本季度預留的 8500 萬美元。我只是想知道這是什麼——如果有什麼理由的話。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
$45 million was a large single charge-off. But we had $85 million reserved against the -- the $97 million that charged off during the quarter.
4500 萬美元是一筆巨額的單次沖銷。但我們預留了 8500 萬美元,以應對本季度沖銷的 9700 萬美元。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Got it. Okay. And then just on the SVB deposit base, the noninterest-bearing levels, I was wondering how those have how those changed since May you gave the [331] but the overall deposit balances were flattish since May. So I just wanted more insight on the mix since that May 5 date that you gave in the last quarter's deck.
知道了。好的。然後就 SVB 存款基礎、無息水平而言,我想知道自 5 月份以來這些變化如何[331],但自 5 月份以來總體存款餘額持平。所以我只是想更深入地了解自您在上季度的套牌中提供的 5 月 5 日以來的組合情況。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Are you talking SVB?
你說的是SVB嗎?
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Yes, specific to SVB.
是的,特定於 SVB。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
The noninterest -- so I don't have that information sitting in front of me. But in terms of noninterest-bearing, we started at $35 billion on SVB. And at the end of the quarter, we were at $21 billion.
無興趣——所以我面前沒有這些信息。但就無息而言,我們在 SVB 上的起步價為 350 億美元。截至本季度末,我們的資產達到 210 億美元。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Got it. Okay. Do you even have the overall spot. Do you have the spot interest-bearing deposit costs at quarter end, Craig?
知道了。好的。你甚至有整體位置嗎?克雷格,你有季度末的即期計息存款成本嗎?
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
I'm looking it up. Well right now. We were -- our cost of deposits at the end of the second quarter was 1.68%.
我正在查找。好吧,現在。第二季度末我們的存款成本為 1.68%。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
I just -- I also wanted to ask on the off-balance sheet client funds. What drove the decline from the $79 billion that you had in April? And I guess how did that trend through June and now through July? And then also the fee rate looks a little bit lower than legacy SVB was. So I wanted to better understand what was driving that.
我只是 - 我還想詢問表外客戶資金。是什麼導致你們的資產較 4 月份的 790 億美元下降?我想從六月到七月,這種趨勢是怎樣的?而且費率看起來也比傳統 SVB 低一點。所以我想更好地了解是什麼推動了這一點。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
The balances we included in the presentation, so I'm flipping to those, off-balance sheet client funds came in at $88 billion, and ended the quarter at $70 billion.
我們在演示文稿中包含了余額,所以我要轉向這些餘額,表外客戶資金為 880 億美元,本季度結束時為 700 億美元。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Yes. I was just wondering if you had any insight as to what drove them lower from the April level.
是的。我只是想知道您是否對是什麼導致它們比四月份的水平有所下降有任何見解。
Peter McDonald Bristow - President & Director
Peter McDonald Bristow - President & Director
This is Peter. Again, this is sort of what I talked about, the overall sort of reflection of what's going on in the space in terms of venture capital investment. You're not seeing a lot of inflows there. We are -- the fact that we have the [60 or 70] of off balance sheet has been fairly consistent -- and I think it's a really good reflection of the fact that a lot of those clients are still here and still choosing us for their business. They're just moving more off balance sheet as opposed to end of the bank. So to me, it's a sign of strength.
這是彼得。再說一次,這就是我所說的,是風險資本投資領域正在發生的事情的總體反映。你在那裡沒有看到大量資金流入。事實上,我們在資產負債表外擁有 [60 或 70] 的資產,這一事實一直相當一致 — 我認為這很好地反映了這樣一個事實:許多客戶仍然在這裡,並且仍然選擇我們。他們的事。他們只是將更多資金轉移到資產負債表之外,而不是銀行的末端。所以對我來說,這是力量的象徵。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Got it. Okay. And I just had 2 last ones. The previous guide on the -- when I kind of moved -- when I kind of took what your EPS guide was last quarter and then backed out the moving parts. You kind of indicated that you expected a [650-ish] core provision for the year. Is that still a good level to be thinking about for core provision, excluding the day 2 CECL.
知道了。好的。我剛剛吃了最後兩個。之前的指南是關於——當我有點搬家的時候——當我有點採用你們上個季度的 EPS 指南,然後取消了搬家的部分。您表示您預計今年會有 [650 左右] 的核心撥款。對於核心供應來說,這仍然是一個值得考慮的好水平嗎(不包括第 2 天的 CECL)。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Did you say 650?
你說650?
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Yes. That's what I kind of backed into.
是的。這就是我所支持的。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
I think it's about [400] for the year.
我認為今年大約是[400]。
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
Broderick Dyer Preston - Analyst
For the year. Okay. Cool. And then the last 1 was, Craig, you guys -- it's such a small portion of the loan portfolio now, that Class B office that you inherited from CIT. I think the $1.1 billion is what's for the commercial bank. And so it's less than 1% of loans. We saw another large bank in Capital One, just kind of move on from their Class B and C office portfolio and put it in held for sale. It took a big charge off on it this quarter. Is there any thought around doing something similar and just saying like it's a credit overhang, and we don't really want to deal with it. We've got plenty of capital, plenty of reserves. Let's just move on from it.
今年。好的。涼爽的。最後一位是克雷格,你們從 CIT 繼承的 B 級辦公室現在只佔貸款組合的一小部分。我認為這11億美元是給商業銀行的。所以它不到貸款的 1%。我們在第一資本看到另一家大型銀行,只是從他們的 B 級和 C 級寫字樓投資組合中轉移出來,並將其置於待售狀態。本季度它的費用大幅減少。有沒有想過做類似的事情,只是說這是信用過剩,而我們真的不想處理它。我們有充足的資金、充足的儲備。讓我們繼續前進吧。
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Craig Lockwood Nix - CFO
Yes. We don't have any plan to do that. .
是的。我們沒有任何計劃這樣做。 。
Operator
Operator
This is all the questions we have today. I'd like to turn the call back to your host, Deanna Hart for any in closing remarks.
這就是我們今天的所有問題。我想將電話轉回給主持人迪安娜·哈特 (Deanna Hart),讓其致閉幕詞。
Deanna W. Hart - SVP of IR
Deanna W. Hart - SVP of IR
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today on our quarterly earnings call. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. We hope you have a great day.
感謝大家今天參加我們的季度財報電話會議。我們感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。如果您還有其他問題或需要更多信息,請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。我們希望您度過愉快的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a lovely day.
謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路,祝您度過愉快的一天。