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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.
女士們、先生們,感謝各位的耐心等待,歡迎參加第一公民銀行控股公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)提醒各位,今天的會議正在錄音。
I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.
現在我謹向大家介紹這次電話會議的主持人,投資者關係主管迪安娜·哈特女士。你可以開始了。
Deanna Hart - SVP of Investor Relations
Deanna Hart - SVP of Investor Relations
Good morning. Welcome to First Citizens Third Quarter Earnings Call. Joining me on the call today are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix. They will provide third quarter business and financial updates referencing our earnings presentation, which you can find on our website.
早安.歡迎參加第一公民銀行第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有我們的董事長兼執行長弗蘭克·霍爾丁,以及財務長克雷格·尼克斯。他們將提供第三季度業務和財務更新信息,並參考我們的收益報告,您可以在我們的網站上找到該報告。
Our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined on page 3 of the presentation.
我們的評論將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。這些風險已在簡報的第 3 頁中列出。
We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in Section 5 of the presentation. Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third parties.
我們也會參考非GAAP財務指標。這些指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的調節情況,請參閱簡報的第 5 部分。最後,第一公民銀行不對第三方提供的收入證明文件的準確性負責,也不對其進行編輯或保證。
I will now turn it over to Frank.
現在我將把它交給弗蘭克。
Frank Holding - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer of the Company and FCB
Frank Holding - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer of the Company and FCB
Thank you, Deanna. Good morning. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings call. During the third quarter, our business segments continued to deliver strong performance. I'll focus my comments on our earnings metrics for the quarter and how we are positioning First Citizens to achieve our strategic initiatives as we move forward. I'll then turn it over to Craig to review our performance in more detail and provide guidance on the fourth quarter.
謝謝你,迪安娜。早安.感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。第三季度,我們的業務部門持續保持強勁的業績表現。我將重點介紹本季的獲利指標,以及隨著我們不斷推動策略舉措,我們將如何定位 First Citizens。然後我會把工作交給克雷格,讓他更詳細地回顧我們的業績,並對第四季提供指導。
Starting on page 5. Key earnings metrics were solid, marked by net interest income growth, stable NIM and adjusted noninterest expense at the low end of our guidance range. We reported adjusted earnings per share of $44.62, an adjusted ROE of 10.62% and an adjusted ROA of 1.01%. We achieved 2.5% loan growth over the linked quarter spread across all our operating segments, but led by SVB Commercial where global fund banking loans increased 10% sequentially, driven by increased utilization and strong production in our capital call portfolio.
從第5頁開始。關鍵獲利指標表現穩健,淨利息收入成長,淨利差保持穩定,調整後的非利息支出處於我們預期範圍的低端。我們公佈的調整後每股收益為 44.62 美元,調整後淨資產收益率為 10.62%,調整後總資產收益率為 1.01%。與上一季相比,我們所有營運部門的貸款成長了 2.5%,其中 SVB Commercial 的成長最為顯著,其全球基金銀行貸款環比增長了 10%,這主要得益於資本調用組合的利用率提高和強勁的業績表現。
Deposits were up by $3.3 billion or 2% sequentially, with notable inflows from our SVB Commercial and General Bank segments. We are pleased that this marks our 7th consecutive quarter of deposit growth. We also maintained strong capital and liquidity positions supporting the balance sheet growth I just mentioned and allowing us to return another $900 million to our shareholders through share repurchases during the quarter.
存款季增 33 億美元,增幅 2%,其中 SVB 商業銀行和一般銀行部門的存款流入尤為顯著。我們很高興這標誌著我們的存款連續第七個季度實現成長。我們也維持了強勁的資本和流動性狀況,支持了我剛才提到的資產負債表成長,並使我們能夠在本季度透過股票回購向股東返還 9 億美元。
We recently announced an agreement to purchase 138 branches from BMO Bank and while we offer our clients a variety of different ways to interact with us, our branches continue to be integral to our franchise. Building on the scale of our current nationwide platform, we are excited about this opportunity to expand into new markets and offer our client-centered approach in even more regions. Strategically, the net deposit position is expected to enable us to further enhance our liquidity position and provide additional flexibility to support our strategic initiatives including the repayment of the purchase money note as interest rates move lower.
我們最近宣布了一項從 BMO 銀行收購 138 家分行的協議,雖然我們為客戶提供了各種不同的與我們互動的方式,但我們的分行仍然是我們特許經營體係不可或缺的一部分。憑藉我們目前遍布全國的平台規模,我們很高興有機會拓展到新市場,並在更多地區提供以客戶為中心的服務。從策略角度來看,淨存款部位有望使我們能夠進一步增強流動性,並提供更大的靈活性來支持我們的策略性舉措,包括在利率下降時償還購買貨幣票據。
Looking ahead on page 6. We remain committed to deepening client relationships, optimizing our balance sheet and making investments in our franchise that underpin scalable growth. So far, we have made real progress on our strategic initiatives, including platform integration and alignment. We continue to align teams to improve client experience, client segmentation and product orchestration. We have increased outreach across our business segments to deliver more holistic solutions to our clients.
請翻到第6頁繼續往下看。我們將繼續致力於深化客戶關係、優化資產負債表,並對我們的特許經營業務進行投資,以支撐可擴展的成長。到目前為止,我們在策略舉措方面取得了實質進展,包括平台整合和協調。我們持續調整團隊,以改善客戶體驗、客戶細分和產品協調。我們已擴大在各個業務領域的覆蓋範圍,以便為客戶提供更全面的解決方案。
Digital and operational improvements. We continue to streamline workflows through automation where it makes sense with the goal of simplifying our operating environment to make us more operationally efficient. Capital and liquidity resilience. We've maintained capital ratios well above regulatory thresholds and our liquidity profile continues to afford us the optionality to support clients, invest in our future and pursue external opportunities.
數位化和營運方面的改進。我們將繼續透過自動化來簡化工作流程,在合理的情況下實現自動化,目標是簡化我們的營運環境,從而提高我們的營運效率。資本和流動性韌性。我們一直保持著遠高於監管門檻的資本充足率,我們的流動性狀況也繼續為我們提供選擇,以支持客戶、投資未來並尋求外部機會。
As always, we remain vigilant on the macro and geopolitical landscape, which remains somewhat uncertain. While we recognize that some elements of the landscape could serve as tailwinds and others headwinds, we are pleased to be operating from a position of strength.
一如既往,我們將密切關注宏觀和地緣政治形勢,目前情況仍存在一定程度的不確定性。雖然我們意識到某些地形因素可能成為順風,而有些則可能成為逆風,但我們很高興能夠從優勢地位出發開展業務。
In closing, I want to emphasize that even in volatile periods across markets and rates, we continue to believe that our diverse business model and disciplined risk posture are key differentiators. Over the last several quarters, we've delivered consistent results even as external conditions shift. We remain deeply committed to being a dependable, thoughtful partner to our clients, communities and shareholders while maintaining flexibility in a dynamic economic environment.
最後,我想強調,即使在市場和利率波動時期,我們仍然相信我們多元化的業務模式和嚴謹的風險控制是關鍵的差異化因素。過去幾個季度,即使外部環境發生變化,我們也取得了穩定的業績。我們始終致力於成為客戶、社區和股東值得信賴、體貼周到的合作夥伴,同時在瞬息萬變的經濟環境中保持靈活性。
With that, I'll turn it over to Craig, who will take you through our third quarter results and forward-looking guidance for the fourth quarter. Craig?
接下來,我將把發言權交給克雷格,他將為大家介紹我們第三季的業績以及對第四季的展望。克雷格?
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Thank you, Frank. Thanks for joining us today. I will anchor my comments to the third quarter key takeaways outlined on page 8. Pages 9 through 26 provide more details underlying our results and are for your reference. Frank mentioned, we had another solid quarter in terms of term and return metrics exceeded our expectations. Adjusted net income of $587 million was driven by positive operating leverage which included net revenue growth and expenses at the low end of our guidance range.
謝謝你,弗蘭克。感謝您今天收看我們的節目。我的發言將圍繞第 8 頁概述的第三季主要要點展開。第 9 頁至第 26 頁提供了更多支持我們研究結果的細節,供您參考。弗蘭克提到,就期限和回報指標而言,我們迎來了一個穩健的季度,超出了我們的預期。調整後的淨利潤為 5.87 億美元,這得益於積極的經營槓桿作用,其中包括淨收入成長和支出處於我們預期範圍的低端。
Positive operating leverage was partially offset by an $82 million charge-off related to the first brands bankruptcy representing our full exposure to the company. We don't believe this loss is reflective of broader issues within our supply chain finance portfolio, and we're confident in the strength of our broader loan portfolio.
積極的經營槓桿作用被與第一品牌破產相關的 8,200 萬美元沖銷部分抵消,這代表了我們對該公司的全部風險敞口。我們認為此次損失並不反映我們供應鏈金融組合中更廣泛的問題,我們對我們更廣泛的貸款組合的實力充滿信心。
Tangible book value per share increased by approximately 8% over the prior year and 2% sequentially despite share repurchases totaling $4 billion since inception of our share repurchase plan in July 2024 and $900 million in the third quarter. Headline net interest income was up 2.3% sequentially and in the upper half of our guidance range, driven primarily by higher average earning assets and day count.
儘管自 2024 年 7 月啟動股票回購計畫以來,股票回購總額已達 40 億美元,第三季回購金額達 9 億美元,但每股有形帳面價值仍比上年增長約 8%,季增約 2%。淨利息收入季增 2.3%,處於我們預期範圍的上半部分,主要得益於平均獲利資產和交易天數的增加。
Net interest income ex accretion grew by 2.7% sequentially. Headline NIM was 3.26%, unchanged from the linked quarter, while NIM ex accretion was 3.15%, up 1 basis point sequentially as we were able to continue to manage deposit costs down while the earning asset yield remained relatively stable. Adjusted noninterest income came in just above our guidance range, increasing modestly by 1% sequentially. The primary drivers of the increase were gains on the sale of previously foreclosed assets and higher client investment fees driven by an increase in average off-balance sheet client funds in SVB Commercial.
扣除利息增值後的淨利息收入較上季增加2.7%。核心淨利差為 3.26%,與上一季持平;扣除增值後的淨利差為 3.15%,環比上升 1 個基點,因為我們能夠繼續降低存款成本,同時獲利資產收益率保持相對穩定。經調整的非利息收入略高於我們的預期範圍,較上季小幅增加 1%。此成長的主要驅動因素是出售先前被取消贖回權的資產所獲得的收益,以及SVB商業銀行表外客戶資金平均增加所導致的客戶投資費用上漲。
These increases were partially offset by a $9 million sequential decline in adjusted rental income resulting from higher maintenance costs in our rail business. We continue to believe the underlying fundamentals in this business are solid with utilization close to 97% and continued positive repricing trends. Adjusted noninterest expense came in at the lower end of our guidance range and was virtually unchanged from the linked quarter.
這些成長被鐵路業務維護成本增加導致的調整後租金收入較上季下降 900 萬美元部分抵銷。我們仍然認為該業務的基本面穩健,利用率接近 97%,並且持續呈現積極的重新定價趨勢。經調整的非利息支出處於我們預期範圍的下限,與上一季相比幾乎沒有變化。
Moving to the balance sheet. Loans increased by $3.5 billion or 2.5% sequentially, led by growth in Global Fund Banking within the SVB Commercial segment, followed by modest growth in the general and commercial bank segments. Global Fund Banking loans increased $2.9 billion and quarter end loan balances were at their highest level since the acquisition in this business. New loan production was strong, and we saw increased utilization in our capital call lines of credit. The pipeline for GFB remains strong, totaling approximately $10 billion as of the end of the quarter.
接下來查看資產負債表。貸款季增 35 億美元,增幅 2.5%,主要得益於 SVB 商業部門全球基金銀行業務的成長,其次是一般銀行和商業銀行部門的溫和成長。全球基金銀行貸款增加了 29 億美元,季度末貸款餘額達到自收購該業務以來的最高水準。新增貸款額度表現強勁,我們的資本調用信貸額度使用率也有所提升。GFB 的儲備項目依然強勁,截至本季末總額約 100 億美元。
We are encouraged by some signs of increased market activity in GFB, which we believe may continue to be a positive driver over the medium term. General Bank loans grew by $238 million, driven by -- primarily by growth in the commercial portfolio within the branch network and our wealth business. Recall, last quarter, we saw a contraction in the commercial portfolio. So we were pleased with its performance as runoff slowed and production increased. Meanwhile, our Wealth business continued to benefit from increased originations in the third quarter.
我們對GFB市場活動增加的一些跡象感到鼓舞,我們認為這可能會在中期內繼續成為一個積極的驅動因素。通用銀行貸款成長了 2.38 億美元,主要得益於分行網路內商業貸款組合的成長以及我們的財富管理業務的成長。回想一下,上個季度我們看到商業投資組合出現萎縮。隨著徑流減緩和產量增加,我們對它的表現感到滿意。同時,我們的財富管理業務在第三季繼續受益於新增貸款額的成長。
Commercial Bank loans also increased $150 million with middle market banking experienced growth offset by declines within our industry verticals as we saw elevated prepayments as deals move to permanent financing and some deals in the pipeline move to the fourth quarter. We continue to maintain pricing discipline, which was reflected in our loan yield as the ex accretion loan yield held up well, only declining by 1 basis point during the quarter despite the impact of lower interest rates.
商業銀行貸款也增加了 1.5 億美元,其中中端市場銀行業務的成長被我們行業垂直領域的下滑所抵消,因為我們看到提前還款額上升,因為交易轉向永久融資,一些正在進行的交易推遲到第四季度。我們繼續保持定價紀律,這體現在我們的貸款收益率上,儘管受到利率下降的影響,但扣除增值貸款收益率依然保持良好,本季度僅下降了 1 個基點。
Turning to the right-hand side of the balance sheet. Deposits grew by $3.3 billion or 2% sequentially as we experienced growth across all our operating segments. SVB Commercial was the largest contributor of the increase, growing by $2.1 billion, driven by growth in both Global Fund Banking and Tech and Healthcare. Deal events led to an increase in GFB deposits, while Tech and Healthcare benefited from new client acquisition and an improving investment environment. Encouragingly, average deposit balances and average total client funds in the SVB commercial business grew by 5.9% over the second quarter.
轉到資產負債表的右邊。由於我們所有營運部門均實現成長,存款環比增長 33 億美元,增幅為 2%。SVB商業銀行是此次成長的最大貢獻者,成長了21億美元,這主要得益於全球基金銀行業務以及科技和醫療保健業務的成長。交易事件導致 GFB 存款增加,而科技和醫療保健產業則受益於新客戶的獲得和投資環境的改善。令人鼓舞的是,SVB 商業業務的平均存款餘額和平均客戶總資金在第二季增加了 5.9%。
While we are encouraged by this growth and some positive signs in the innovation economy, we remain guarded on the forward-looking impact on the balance sheet, giving known outflows following the end of the quarter and the overall state of the innovation landscape. In SVB Commercial, we remain focused on winning market share that is stable and profitable. In the General Bank, growth was primarily concentrated in the branch network and wealth where we continue to focus on deepening existing relationships and acquiring new customers.
儘管我們對這一增長以及創新經濟中的一些積極跡象感到鼓舞,但考慮到季度末已知的資金流出以及創新環境的整體狀況,我們對未來對資產負債表的影響仍持謹慎態度。在SVB Commercial,我們始終專注於贏得穩定且有利可圖的市場份額。在通用銀行,成長主要集中在分行網路和財富管理領域,我們將繼續專注於深化現有客戶關係並獲取新客戶。
As noted last quarter, we have implemented additional deposit growth tactics to help identify both near- and long-term opportunities to accelerate growth through deepening relationships, encouraging more local decision-making, and improving digital capabilities, and we are excited to see these efforts pull through on the balance sheet. We were also encouraged by our ability to grow noninterest-bearing deposits for the third consecutive quarter helping us keep our noninterest-bearing deposit mix stable at 26% despite continued strong growth in total deposits.
正如上個季度所指出的,我們實施了額外的存款成長策略,以幫助識別近期和長期機會,透過深化關係、鼓勵更多本地決策和提高數位化能力來加速成長,我們很高興看到這些努力在資產負債表上取得成效。我們也很高興地看到,我們連續第三個季度實現了無息存款的成長,這有助於我們在總存款持續強勁增長的情況下,將無息存款佔比穩定在 26%。
Moving to credit. Net charge-offs increased by $115 million to $234 million and were 65 basis points for the quarter. As I noted earlier, $82 million of the increase was a result of the First Brands bankruptcy, which contributed 23 basis points or made up around 35% of our total net charge-offs for the third quarter. We don't believe this loss is reflective of broader issues within our supply chain finance portfolio, which totaled $300 million as of the end of the quarter. Outside of this loss, net charge-offs -- outside of this loss net charge-offs were within our expectations and the guidance we provided for the third quarter.
轉為信用貸款。淨沖銷額增加了 1.15 億美元,達到 2.34 億美元,本季為 65 個基點。正如我之前提到的,8,200 萬美元的成長是由於 First Brands 破產造成的,這貢獻了 23 個基點,約占我們第三季淨沖銷總額的 35%。我們認為此次虧損並不反映我們供應鏈金融投資組合中更廣泛的問題,截至本季末,該投資組合總額為 3 億美元。除了這筆虧損之外,淨沖銷額——除了這筆虧損之外,淨沖銷額符合我們的預期以及我們對第三季的指導。
Excluding the First Brands charge-off, net charge-offs were mostly concentrated in the SVB commercial investor-dependent portfolio, the commercial bank general office portfolio and our equipment finance portfolio reasonably consistent with prior quarters. While we still see stress in the equipment finance portfolio, we continue to see signs of improvement and trending toward long-term expectations.
除第一品牌核銷外,淨核銷主要集中在矽谷銀行商業投資者相關投資組合、商業銀行一般辦公投資組合及我們的設備融資投資組合,與前幾季基本一致。儘管我們仍然看到設備融資組合面臨壓力,但我們持續看到改善跡象,並朝著長期預期發展。
We have taken steps to mitigate future losses through tightening underwriting as well as increasing collection staff to work through earlier vintages. We expect these efforts to return this business to historical net charge-off levels in the medium term. There are a couple of larger charge-offs this quarter. And as we have noted on past calls, net charge-offs can be lumpy quarter-over-quarter, given the hold sizes of some of our credits. While we continue to monitor these portfolios, we don't see further trends that would signal wider credit quality concerns and believe we are well reserved.
我們已採取措施,透過收緊承保以及增加催收人員來處理更早的欠款,從而減少未來的損失。我們預計這些措施將在中期內使該業務的淨沖銷額恢復到歷史水準。本季有幾筆數額較大的沖銷款項。正如我們在先前的電話會議中提到的那樣,考慮到我們某些信貸的持有規模,淨沖銷額可能會出現季度間的波動。雖然我們會繼續關注這些投資組合,但我們沒有看到任何可能預示著更廣泛的信貸品質問題的進一步趨勢,並且我們認為我們儲備充足。
The allowance ratio was down 4 basis points to 1.14%, driven by improvements in the macroeconomic outlook, a reduction in reserves related to Hurricane Helene and growth in higher credit quality loan portfolios. We feel good about our over observe coverage as well as the coverage on portfolios experiencing stress. Ultimately, our strong risk management rigorous underwriting standards and diversified portfolio helps safeguard against losses.
撥備率下降 4 個基點至 1.14%,主要原因是宏觀經濟前景改善、與颶風海倫相關的準備金減少以及高信用品質貸款組合的成長。我們對過度觀察的覆蓋範圍以及對面臨壓力的投資組合的覆蓋範圍感到滿意。最終,我們強大的風險管理、嚴格的承保標準和多元化的投資組合有助於防範損失。
Given recent industry headlines, I want to briefly touch on our exposure to nondepository financial institutions or NDFI. While the exposure can look sizable based on our call report, approximately 85% is to high-quality, low-risk capital call lines to private equity and VC sponsors. These are backed by institutional investors with committed capital many of which have historically generated solid risk-adjusted returns and credit performance has been excellent. So while the regulatory classification may label them as NDFI, from a credit perspective, we view them as safe, well-managed assets.
鑑於最近的行業新聞,我想簡要談談我們對非存款金融機構(NDFI)的風險敞口。雖然根據我們的電話會議報告,風險敞口看起來可能很大,但其中約 85% 是面向私募股權和創投機構的高品質、低風險資本募集資金。這些債券由擁有承諾資本的機構投資者支持,其中許多債券歷來都產生了穩健的風險調整後收益,信用表現也十分出色。因此,儘管監管分類可能將它們標記為非存款金融機構,但從信用角度來看,我們認為它們是安全、管理良好的資產。
Moving to capital. Frank mentioned that we continue to make progress on our 2025 share repurchase plan. As of close of business on October 21, we had repurchased just over 15% of Class A common shares or 14% of total common shares outstanding for a total price of $4 billion. Note that this is inclusive of the 2024 plan, which we completed in the third quarter of 2025. With respect to the $4 billion repurchase plan approved by the Board in July 2025, we have completed approximately 7% of this authorization.
向資本轉移。弗蘭克提到,我們的 2025 年股票回購計畫正在持續取得進展。截至 10 月 21 日營業結束時,我們已回購了略高於 15% 的 A 類普通股,或已發行普通股總數的 14%,總價為 40 億美元。請注意,這包含了 2024 年計劃,我們已於 2025 年第三季完成了該計劃。關於董事會於 2025 年 7 月批准的 40 億美元回購計劃,我們已經完成了該授權的約 7%。
During the third quarter, repurchases were at the top end of our $600 million to $900 million range -- per quarter range. We expect that repurchases through the end of 2025 and into the first part of 2026, will continue to be near the higher end of this range as we manage CET1 towards our target range. The pace will likely slow down when CET1 is closer to our target range, assuming earnings and RWA growth are in line with expectations.
第三季度,股票回購額處於我們每季 6 億美元至 9 億美元範圍的上限。我們預計,到 2025 年底以及 2026 年上半年,回購規模將繼續接近該範圍的上限,因為我們將 CET1 控制在目標範圍內。假設獲利和風險加權資產成長符合預期,當 CET1 接近我們的目標範圍時,成長可能會放緩。
Share repurchases will continue to be a tool to support capital management activities, providing us with an opportunity to return capital to our shareholders and to be more efficient -- capital efficient over time. Although we expect that CET1 will remain above our target range of 10.5% to 11% in 2025, given our current growth expectations and where our capital ratios were to start the year, we believe the repurchase plan will enable us to methodically manage CET1 down to that level over time as we regularly assess our growth outlook, economic conditions, the regulatory environment and capital deployment.
股票回購將繼續作為支持資本管理活動的工具,為我們提供向股東返還資本的機會,並隨著時間的推移提高效率—提高資本效率。儘管我們預計到 2025 年,CET1 仍將高於我們 10.5% 至 11% 的目標範圍,但鑑於我們目前的增長預期以及年初的資本比率,我們相信回購計劃將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移,有條不紊地將 CET1 管理至該水平,同時我們將定期評估我們的增長前景、經濟狀況、監管環境增長和資本和資本。
The third quarter CET1 ratio was 11.65%, a decrease of 47 basis points from the second quarter as the impact from share repurchases and loan growth outpaced earnings. I will close on page 28 with our fourth quarter and full year 2025 outlook. We continue to monitor the overall macroeconomic environment but acknowledge that fluidity of changes makes it difficult to narrow the range of potential impacts on the broader economy and our business lines and clients.
第三季 CET1 比率為 11.65%,較第二季下降 47 個基點,原因是股票回購和貸款成長的影響超過了獲利。我將在 28 頁最後展望 2025 年第四季和全年情況。我們將繼續關注整體宏觀經濟環境,但同時也承認,由於變化頻繁,很難縮小對整體經濟、我們的業務線和客戶的潛在影響範圍。
Accordingly, we have not made significant changes to our guidance but do continue to monitor the environment and how it could impact our performance. Additionally, as Frank noted earlier, we are excited about the recent announcement of the branch acquisition with BMO Bank, given the expected close -- given that the expected close is in mid-2026. The impacts of this deal are not included in the guidance.
因此,我們沒有對業績指引做出重大調整,但會繼續關注市場環境及其可能對我們的業績產生的影響。此外,正如弗蘭克之前提到的,我們對最近宣布的與 BMO 銀行的分行收購感到興奮,因為預計收購將於 2026 年年中完成。此交易的影響並未包含在業績指引中。
With those disclaimers out of the way, I'll start with the balance sheet where we anticipate loans in the $143 billion to $146 billion range in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by the same areas we have seen growth year-to-date. As I noted earlier, while we had strong third quarter growth, we remain cautiously optimistic on absolute loan levels as we head into year-end.
在澄清了這些免責聲明後,我將從資產負債表開始,我們預計第四季度貸款額將在 1430 億美元至 1460 億美元之間,主要由今年迄今為止我們已看到增長的相同領域推動。正如我之前提到的,雖然我們第三季實現了強勁成長,但隨著年底臨近,我們對貸款絕對水準仍保持謹慎樂觀態度。
In the Commercial Bank, we expect recent trends to abate and are projecting growth in our industry verticals. Market activity remains positive. And while there is increasing competition as banks continue to lean into the lending market, our pipeline remains strong, going into the end of the year. Credit metrics remain stable and optimism is being signaled across the industry, pointing to a strong end of the year for the lending market.
在商業銀行領域,我們預期近期趨勢將會減弱,並預測我們各行業垂直領域將會成長。市場活動依然保持積極態勢。儘管隨著銀行不斷增加對貸款市場的投入,競爭日益激烈,但到年底,我們的貸款業務仍然強勁。信貸指標保持穩定,整個產業都釋放出樂觀訊號,預示貸款市場將在年底迎來強勁成長。
We expect some pullback in global fund banking in the fourth quarter as we aren't projecting utilization to remain at the levels we saw in the third quarter. Loan outstandings in this business can ebb and flow based on client draws and repayments. And while we are very bullish over the medium term on the continued expansion in this line of business, we are realistic that quarter and snapshots of outstanding balances can be more volatile.
我們預計第四季度全球基金銀行業務將出現一些回調,因為我們預計其利用率不會保持在第三季的水平。該行業的貸款未償餘額會根據客戶的提款和還款情況而波動。雖然我們對該業務線的中期持續擴張非常樂觀,但我們也現實地認為,季度和未償餘額的快照可能會更加波動。
We expect deposits to be in the $161 billion to $165 billion range in the fourth quarter. We expect drivers of growth to be continued expansion in the general bank through the branch network and wealth as we continue to focus on deepening existing relationships, inquiring new customers to help drive organic deposit growth. We expect that this growth will be partially offset by a decline in SVB commercial given known outflows from deposits into off-balance sheet products post quarter end that increased third quarter deposit balance on balance sheet.
我們預計第四季存款額將在 1,610 億美元至 1,650 億美元之間。我們預計,隨著我們持續專注於深化現有客戶關係、拓展新客戶以推動存款自然成長,銀行整體業務將透過分行網路持續擴張,財富管理業務也將持續擴張。我們預計,由於季度末存款流出至表外產品,導致第三季資產負債表上的存款餘額增加,SVB 商業收入的下降將部分抵銷這一增長。
We continue to be focused on strategies to best serve our clients in this business while reducing funding and liquidity costs, which could impact absolute deposit growth levels. Our interest rate forecast covers a range of 0 to 225 basis points rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025 with the effective Fed funds rate range, declining from 4% to 4.25% currently to as low as 3.5% to 3.75% by the end of the year. While our baseline forecast includes two rate cuts, we believe stubborn inflationary metrics and possible impacts of macroeconomic policy could lead to fewer or no cuts. Therefore, we believe it is prudent to provide a range of expectations.
我們將繼續專注於制定策略,以更好地服務我們的客戶,同時降低融資和流動性成本,這可能會影響存款的絕對成長水準。我們的利率預測涵蓋了 2025 年第四季 0 至 225 個基點的降息幅度,聯邦基金有效利率區間將從目前的 4% 至 4.25% 降至年底的 3.5% 至 3.75%。雖然我們的基本預測包括兩次降息,但我們認為頑固的通膨指標和宏觀經濟政策可能產生的影響可能會導致降息次數減少或根本不降息。因此,我們認為提供一系列預期結果是謹慎的。
With that in mind, we expect fourth quarter headline net interest income to be relatively stable compared to the third quarter. For the full year, we are tightening our headline net interest income guidance to be in the range of $6.74 billion to $6.84 billion from $6.68 billion to $6.88 billion. The revision reflects the new forward interest rate curve as well as the jumping off point from the third quarter. In either case, as expected, we project that loan accretion will be down by over $200 million for the year compared to 2024.
考慮到這一點,我們預計第四季淨利息收入與第三季相比將保持相對穩定。我們將全年淨利息收入預期從 66.8 億美元至 68.8 億美元收緊至 67.4 億美元至 68.4 億美元。此次修訂反映了新的遠期利率曲線以及第三季的起始點。無論哪種情況,正如預期的那樣,我們預計今年的貸款增值將比 2024 年減少超過 2 億美元。
On credit losses, we anticipate fourth quarter net charge-offs in the range of 35 basis points to 45 basis points, in line with the range we provided in the third quarter but below our third quarter results. As previously discussed, our third quarter net charge-offs were higher than anticipated given one large charge-off. We expect losses to continue to be driven by the same portfolio as we have been discussing for a number of quarters, equipment finance, general office and the SVB investor-dependent portfolio. We remain focused on client selection and prudent underwriting and have tightened in certain sectors and asset classes for specific client profiles.
關於信貸損失,我們預計第四季度淨沖銷額將在 35 個基點至 45 個基點之間,與我們在第三季度提供的範圍一致,但低於我們第三季度的結果。如前所述,由於一筆大額沖銷,我們第三季的淨沖銷額高於預期。我們預計虧損將繼續由我們幾個季度以來一直在討論的同一投資組合造成,即設備融資、一般辦公用品和依賴 SVB 投資者的投資組合。我們依然專注於客戶選擇和審慎承保,並針對特定客戶群收緊了某些行業和資產類別的承保。
In commercial real estate, while rate cuts could ease some of the pressure on borrowers in the general office sector, we do believe losses will remain elevated in the fourth quarter even as market disruption may lessen as more companies have reinstated office attendance requirements. With respect to the full year range, we are increasing our guide of 35 basis points to 45 basis points to 43 basis points to 47 basis points given the higher jump-off point. We also continue to see some lumpiness and losses in the portfolio and as we mentioned earlier, we have a portfolio where a handful of large deals can swing the ratio.
在商業房地產領域,雖然降息可能會減輕一般辦公大樓借款人的一些壓力,但我們認為,即使隨著更多公司恢復辦公室出勤要求,市場動盪可能會有所緩解,第四季度的損失仍將居高不下。鑑於更高的起始點,我們將全年指導幅度從 35 個基點上調至 45 個基點、43 個基點、47 個基點。我們也看到投資組合中繼續出現一些波動和損失,正如我們之前提到的,我們的投資組合中少數幾筆大交易就能使比率波動。
It is important to note that our net charge-off guidance does not include an estimate for the long-term impact of tariffs given the continued shifts in expectations and the difficulty in determining the full impact on our asset quality. While higher tariffs could drive economic stress in the form of inflation and/or lower growth, we believe the credit risk is manageable. We will continually assess the potential impact on our portfolio, but we do believe that its diversity is a strength in this environment.
值得注意的是,鑑於預期不斷變化以及難以確定關稅對我們資產品質的全面影響,我們的淨沖銷指引並未包含對關稅長期影響的估計。雖然提高關稅可能會以通貨膨脹和/或經濟成長放緩的形式帶來經濟壓力,但我們認為信用風險是可控的。我們將持續評估對我們投資組合的潛在影響,但我們相信,在當前環境下,投資組合的多樣性是一種優勢。
Moving to adjusted noninterest income, we expect to be in the $480 million to $510 million range in the fourth quarter aligned with a typical quarter for us. Overall, we continue to see strength in many of our core lines of business such as rail, merchant, card, wealth and lending-related fees. Given that we have three quarters behind us, we have tightened our full year adjusted noninterest income range to $1.99 billion to $2.02 billion. Year-over-year growth continues to be driven by our rail outlook, which includes a balanced railcar portfolio in a strategic exploration ladder.
調整後的非利息收入方面,我們預計第四季度將在 4.8 億美元至 5.1 億美元之間,與我們通常的季度水準一致。總體而言,我們在鐵路、商家、信用卡、財富管理和貸款相關費用等許多核心業務領域繼續保持強勁勢頭。鑑於我們已經過了三個季度,我們將全年調整後非利息收入範圍收窄至 19.9 億美元至 20.2 億美元。年比增速繼續由我們的鐵路前景推動,其中包括戰略勘探階梯中均衡的鐵路貨車組合。
We also expect continued growth in wealth and international fees, thanks to new client acquisition and an increase in flow of funds. We are also encouraged by the performance of our capital markets business as we are on target to achieve another year of record fee income. The increase in off-balance sheet client funds has also benefited client investment fees. I do want to caution that given the changing rate environment, our client derivative positions can fluctuate between quarters causing some lumpiness in our results.
我們也預計,由於新客戶的獲取和資金流動的增加,財富和國際費用將繼續增長。我們的資本市場業務表現也令人鼓舞,我們預計將再次實現創紀錄的費用收入。表外客戶資金的增加也使客戶投資費用受益。我想提醒大家,鑑於利率環境的變化,我們客戶的衍生性商品部位可能會在不同季度之間波動,導致我們的業績出現一些波動。
Moving to adjusted noninterest expense. We expect the fourth quarter to be up modestly compared to the third quarter as we continue to invest in Category 3 readiness and to help simplify and optimize our platforms to allow us to scale efficiently in the future. We also have seasonal expenses that generally pull through in the fourth quarter like higher travel, client entertainment and year-end contributions, making it a bit lumpy.
轉入調整後的非利息支出。我們預計第四季度業績將比第三季度略有增長,因為我們將繼續投資於第三類準備工作,並幫助簡化和優化我們的平台,以便我們將來能夠高效地擴展規模。我們還有一些季節性支出,通常會在第四季度出現,例如差旅費增加、客戶招待費和年終捐款,這使得季度收入略有波動。
Looking at the full year, we tightened our adjusted noninterest expense range to $5.12 billion to $5.16 billion. Exercising disciplined expense management while making opportunistic investments through the cycle and technology and risk management is a top priority for us given headwinds to net interest income. Our adjusted efficiency ratio is expected to be in the upper 50% range in 2025 as the impact of the Fed rate cut cycle puts downward pressure on net interest margin and we continue to make investments into areas that will help us scale to Category 3 status. Longer term, our goal remains to operate in the mid-50s.
從全年來看,我們將調整後的非利息支出範圍收窄至 51.2 億美元至 51.6 億美元。鑑於淨利息收入面臨不利因素,在周期性波動中,我們優先考慮嚴格控制支出,同時把握投資機會,並重視技術和風險管理。由於聯準會降息週期對淨利差造成下行壓力,預計到 2025 年,我們的調整後效率比率將達到 50% 以上,同時我們將繼續投資於有助於我們達到 3 類水準的領域。從長遠來看,我們的目標仍然是營運規模達到 50 多台。
Finally, for both the third quarter and full year -- for both the fourth quarter and full year 2025, we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 25% to 26%, which is exclusive of any discrete items. To conclude, we are pleased to deliver another quarter of strong financial results, reflective of the strength and resilience of our diversified business model. Thanks to our long-term focus, continued investments in our business and strong risk management framework, we're well positioned to continue delivering value to our clients, customers, communities and shareholders.
最後,對於第三季和全年(2025 年第四季和全年),我們預計稅率將在 25% 至 26% 之間,這不包括任何特殊項目。總而言之,我們很高興地宣布又一個季度取得了強勁的財務業績,這反映了我們多元化商業模式的實力和韌性。由於我們的長期策略、對業務的持續投資以及強大的風險管理框架,我們有能力繼續為我們的客戶、顧客、社區和股東創造價值。
I will now turn it over to the operator for instructions for the question-and-answer portion of the call.
現在我將把電話交給接線員,由她來指示問答環節的流程。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Chris McGratty, KBW.
(操作說明)克里斯·麥格拉蒂,KBW。
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Great morning. Thanks for the question. Craig, on the NII guide, I want to start there. It looks like you just added a cut to the guide from last quarter. Can you help us about -- within the range for Q4 if we get the forward curve, is the $1.7 billion the right number if you get two cut? I know there's a lot moving on with the balance sheet.
早安.謝謝你的提問。Craig,關於 NII 指南,我想從那裡開始。看起來你只是在上個季度的指南中添加了一段刪減。您能否幫我們解答一下——如果我們獲得遠期曲線,在第四季度的範圍內,如果進行兩次削減,17億美元是否是正確的數字?我知道資產負債表方面有很多變動。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Yes. If we get two cuts, which frankly would be our base forecast, we think it's more likely than not having any cuts or one cut. So when we look at both headline net interest income and net interest income ex purchase accounting, we would expect those numbers to be down low single digits percentage points sequentially. And if we look at NIM headline. We're looking in the high 3.10%. And if we look at NIM ex accretion in the high 3.00% for the fourth quarter.
是的。如果出現兩次裁員(坦白說,這是我們的基本預測),我們認為這種情況發生的可能性比不裁員或只裁員一次要大。因此,當我們查看名目淨利息收入和剔除購買會計處理後的淨利息收入時,我們預計這些數字將環比下降個位數百分比。如果我們看一下NIM的頭條新聞。我們預計在 3.10% 以上。如果我們看一下第四季的淨利差(不含增值)在 3.00% 以上。
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Okay. And then I guess, fast forwarding, I mean, I guess the question is, when do you assume NII bottoms?
好的。然後我想,快轉一下,我的意思是,我想問題是,你認為 NII 何時會觸底?
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Really all -- both headline NII and ex-accretion NII and headline NIM and ex accretion NIM with trough in the first quarter of '26. But let me point out that there's a little nuance there that if the interest rate forecast holds, which assumes two more rate cuts this year, with the Fed fund rate ending at around 3.75%, we do anticipate paying down the note as the arbitrage in it either disappears or becomes zero as opposed to where we have a 70 basis points spread right now.
確實所有——包括主要淨利息收入和剔除利息收入後的淨利息收入,以及主要淨息差和剔除利息收入後的淨息差,並在 2026 年第一季度達到谷底。但我想指出,這裡有一點細微差別:如果利率預測成立(假設今年再降息兩次),聯邦基金利率最終在 3.75% 左右,我們預計會償還該票據,因為其中的套利機會要么消失,要么變為零,而不是像現在這樣有 70 個基點的利差。
So at that point, repayment would have a positive impact on NIM to the extent, which will be determined by the amount of our pay down. So our NIM troughs are pulled forward to the first quarter, even despite our asset sensitivity given that the paydown will be accretive to NIM, absent the paydown, which wouldn't make any sense if there's an arbitrage in it, those troughs will be pushed out to the first part of '27.
因此,屆時償還貸款將對淨利差產生正面影響,其程度將取決於我們償還的金額。因此,儘管考慮到償還債務將增加淨利差,我們的資產敏感性導致淨利差低點提前至第一季;但如果沒有償還債務(如果其中存在套利機會,這沒有任何意義),這些低點將被推遲到 2027 年上半年。
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Okay. And on the $35 or so billion, are you thinking tranches? How are you thinking about repayment? Any kind of color there?
好的。至於那大約 350 億美元,您是考慮分期付款嗎?您打算如何償還貸款?那裡有顏色嗎?
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Yes. On the purchase money note, we can pay portions of it. So we would not go out and pay off the whole things as it makes up a substantive, obviously, a portion of our balance sheet and also we do the optionality obviously carries some value above and beyond the rate we're paying on it. So it would be something we would sort of leg into but maybe make a slightly larger first payment on.
是的。在購屋款票據上,我們可以分期付款。因此,我們不會去償還全部債務,因為這顯然構成了我們資產負債表的重要組成部分,而且選擇權顯然具有一些超出我們所支付的利率的價值。所以我們會慢慢涉足這個項目,但可能會先支付稍多一些的首付款。
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Christopher McGratty - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.
伯納德‧馮‧吉茲基 (Bernard Von Gizycki),德意志銀行。
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Hey guys, good morning. I know you mentioned the $82 million charge-off to First Brands and represents all your exposure there. But can you just share any information on any additional monitoring you might have conducted throughout that portfolio? I think it was called out that the allowance for loan losses, there were some higher specific reserves for individually evaluated loans. So just any color you can share on that?
大家好,早安。我知道你提到了對 First Brands 的 8200 萬美元沖銷,這代表了你在那裡的所有風險敞口。您能否分享您在該投資組合中進行的任何其他監測方面的資訊?我認為有人指出,貸款損失準備金中,針對個別評估的貸款有一些較高的專案準備金。所以,任何顏色你都可以分享一下嗎?
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Sure. This is Andy. Just to remind, our supply chain portfolio is about $300 million across 24 borrowers. So it's, on average, about $13 million of exposure, we don't have the level of concentration in the remainder of that portfolio that we did with First Brands, certainly did a deep dive post-perse brands and feel very comfortable with the remainder of that portfolio.
當然。這是安迪。再次提醒一下,我們的供應鏈投資組合規模約為 3 億美元,涉及 24 家借款人。因此,平均而言,風險敞口約為 1300 萬美元。我們對剩餘投資組合的集中度沒有像對 First Brands 那樣高,當然,在收購 Perse Brands 之後,我們對剩餘投資組合進行了深入研究,並感到非常滿意。
Obviously, there's a lot of widespread allegations around fraud there. But it's going to take some time to work through that through the bankruptcy process before we learn more there. And we don't think that it's emblematic of the supply chain portfolio or supply chain in general.
顯然,那裡存在大量關於詐欺的指控。但我們需要一些時間透過破產程序來解決這個問題,才能了解更多。我們認為這並不代表整個供應鏈組合或整個供應鏈的典型情況。
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
And just as a follow-up on M&A, post acquisition of BMO's branches expected to close for mid next year. Just given the favorable regulatory backdrop, can you just talk about your appetite to do an additional branch acquisition or a whole bank acquisition?
另外,關於併購,BMO 分公司的收購預計將於明年年中完成。鑑於目前有利的監管環境,您能否談談您是否有意進行額外的分行收購或整個銀行的收購?
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Yes. Beyond BMO, we have no specific M&A plans. But as BMO indicates, long term, M&A will remain a significant part of our growth strategy. So we don't have -- and outside of BMO, we don't have a specific time line on when we'll be back in the market as we continue to focus on category 3 readiness and capital efficiency.
是的。除了BMO之外,我們沒有其他具體的併購計劃。但正如BMO所指出的,從長遠來看,併購仍將是我們成長策略的重要組成部分。因此,除了 BMO 之外,我們也沒有具體的時間表來說明何時重返市場,因為我們將繼續專注於第三類準備和資本效率。
But when we do enter the market, we will be the same opportunistic buyer focused on accretive M&A that brings more scale and enhances our ability to compete and makes us a better bank for our customers and clients.
但當我們進入市場時,我們仍將是機會主義的買家,專注於增值併購,以擴大規模,增強競爭力,使我們成為對客戶更好的銀行。
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Bernard Von-Gizycki - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Casey Haire, Autonomous.
凱西·海爾,自主。
Casey Haire - Analyst
Casey Haire - Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, guys. I wanted to touch on the loan growth. So the loan growth guide, I hear you that it's that you expect lower utilization in fund banking, but you just put up a 10% annualized growth and it sounds like the pipeline is just as strong.
謝謝。各位早安。我想談談貸款成長情況。所以,關於貸款成長指南,我理解您預計資金銀行業務的利用率會降低,但您剛剛公佈了 10% 的年化成長率,而且聽起來業務儲備同樣強勁。
So -- but the guide introduces the possibility of loans coming in, in the fourth quarter. Just in -- want to get a little color on what you really expect loan growth because it seems a little conservative.
所以——但該指南介紹了第四季度可能出現貸款的情況。最新消息—想了解您對貸款成長的真實預期,因為這個預期似乎有點保守。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Let me -- let Marc start with that and Elliot amplify.
讓我——讓馬克先說,然後艾利歐特補充。
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
Sure. So this is Marc and speaking specifically about the GFB segment. Totally understand your point, given the 10% quarter-over-quarter growth in the third quarter. A call out there though. And maybe going back to something, Craig, I think you said earlier, is borrowings and repayments tend swing around a lot. And with Global Fund Banking, in particular, that can happen. And it's probably best illustrated when I think about the average loan growth in that segment versus the period end, that average loan growth is sub-$1 billion over the course of the third quarter.
當然。我是 Marc,今天我將專門談談 GFB 部分。完全理解你的觀點,畢竟第三季季增了10%。不過,確實有人在呼籲。克雷格,我想你之前也說過,借款和還款往往會有很大的波動。尤其是全球基金銀行業務,這種情況就可能發生。如果將該領域的平均貸款成長與期末進行比較,就能最好地說明這一點,因為第三季的平均貸款成長不到 10 億美元。
And that obviously is quite a bit less than the plus 3% on a period end basis. And so I think that illustrates sort of the point right there. And by extension, I think hopefully explains the appearance of conservatism in that part of the fourth quarter loan growth outlook. I'll stop there and pass it to you, Craig.
顯然,這比期末加 3% 要低得多。所以我覺得這正好說明了問題所在。由此看來,這或許可以解釋第四季貸款成長展望中這部分內容為何顯得較為保守。我就說到這兒,把任務交給你了,克雷格。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Thank you Marc.
謝謝你,馬克。
Casey Haire - Analyst
Casey Haire - Analyst
Okay. And just on the expenses. So first off, I guess, a pretty wide range in the fourth quarter, up 10%, up 50%. Just what are the wildcards within that? And then just as a follow-up, that implies 6% to 7% expense both on the year and '25. Just wondering how much of that is Category 3 prep and when we could see a relief on the expense pressure?
好的。僅僅是費用方面。首先,我想說的是,第四季漲幅相當大,從上漲 10% 到上漲 50% 不等。這其中究竟有哪些不確定因素?然後作為後續補充,這意味著今年和 2025 年的費用均為 6% 至 7%。我想知道其中有多少是第三類準備工作,以及我們什麼時候才能看到支出壓力有所緩解?
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Yes. I'll let Elliot talk about the guide, but I'll handle the last part of that question, but the escalation of expenses in '25, as we guided previously, are related primarily to that work. Large financial institution program as well as several large projects related to that work as well. So that is the reason for the mid- to upper single-digit expense growth in '25 over '24.
是的。關於指南,我會讓艾利歐特來談談,但我會處理這個問題的最後一部分,正如我們之前所指導的那樣,2025 年費用的上漲主要與這項工作有關。大型金融機構計畫以及與此相關的幾個大型計畫。所以,這就是 2025 年費用比 2024 年成長中高個位數的原因。
I'll let Elliot speak to the guide a bit for the fourth quarter.
第四堂課,我會讓艾略特和導遊聊一會兒。
Elliot Howard - Executive Director, Financial Planning & Investor Relations
Elliot Howard - Executive Director, Financial Planning & Investor Relations
Yes, sure. Craig touched on some of the script. I mean I think when you look at the fourth quarter, there are certain things that are kind of more particular plus seasonal to the fourth quarter. We see kind of elevated client entertainment, we see elevated travel, in addition, when you look at something like health insurance, a lot of employees have hit their deductibles, so we see that pull through at a higher rate in the fourth quarter.
當然可以。克雷格談到了劇本的一些內容。我的意思是,我認為當你審視第四季度時,會發現有些事情更具特殊性,而且具有季節性,與第四季度密切相關。我們看到客戶招待增加,差旅也增加。此外,像健康保險方面,許多員工已經達到了自付額上限,因此我們看到第四季度自付額的增加幅度更大。
In addition, I think third quarter, we had some larger meaningful projects close out. And so the depreciation impact is now going to be reflected in the fourth quarter. So as far as what could tipped up or down, I think some of those aforementioned things and then really just the timing of kind of idiosyncratic project expenses really related to kind of the tech build-out and simplification.
此外,我認為第三季我們有一些比較重要的大型專案順利收尾。因此,折舊的影響現在將在第四季度反映出來。所以,至於哪些因素可能導致價格上漲或下跌,我認為上述一些因素,以及一些特殊項目支出的時間安排,這些支出與技術建設和簡化密切相關。
Casey Haire - Analyst
Casey Haire - Analyst
Okay. And just Craig, the Category 3 prep expense -- is that -- can we -- when can we start to see some relief on those expenses? Is that a near-term event? Or is that further down the road?
好的。還有 Craig,第三類準備費用——我們——什麼時候才能開始看到這些費用減輕?這是近期會發生的事嗎?還是那是以後的事?
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
I would call it medium term. I think in terms of -- we made a lot of progress there. And there's certainly a great focus within our company to continue to make progress there. Most of the Category 3 requirements are either enhancements to what we currently do or represent formalization of rules that we already comply with. But there are -- there's a lot of work around data modeling and then reporting frequency, which really has us reworking processes, systems and data delivery.
我會稱之為中期方案。我認為就這一點而言——我們取得了很大進展。我們公司也非常重視繼續在這方面取得進展。第 3 類要求大多是我們目前所做工作的改進,或是我們對已經遵守的規則的正式化。但是,確實有很多工作要做——圍繞數據建模和報告頻率有很多工作要做,這確實需要我們重新設計流程、系統和數據交付方式。
So there are some expenses there. I think we're probably to use a baseball analogy in the 7 inning stretch there. So there will be some expenses pulling through there, but we may -- but I do want to mention we have made a lot of great progress on that. We do intend to be able to meet those requirements in the first half of '26.
所以這方面會有一些費用。我想我們或許應該在第七局休息時用棒球比賽來打個比方。所以這方面會有一些開支,但我們可能會——但我確實想提一下,我們在這方面已經取得了很大的進展。我們計劃在 2026 年上半年滿足這些要求。
Casey Haire - Analyst
Casey Haire - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Anthony Elian, JP Morgan.
Anthony Elian,摩根大通。
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Hi everyone. For Marc, on total client funds, I'd like to get more color on total client funds. What specifically drove the strong growth you saw in 3Q. And I know in Craig's prepared remarks, there's a level of cautiousness on the outlook for SVB. But given the backdrop of lower rates, more IPOs coming to market and VC investments continuing at a strong pace. What exactly is causing you to believe that the strong level of activity won't continue?
大家好。對於 Marc 來說,關於客戶總資金,我想了解更多關於客戶總資金的資訊。第三季強勁成長的具體驅動因素是什麼?我知道在克雷格的準備好的發言稿中,他對矽谷銀行的前景持謹慎態度。但鑑於利率走低、更多IPO上市以及創投持續保持強勁勢頭。究竟是什麼讓你認為這種強勁的活動水準不會持續下去?
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
So I will start, others may wish to contribute as well. I think this really goes to the caution that was represented in Craig's comments and with regard to Q4 guidance. It certainly has been encouraging and was encouraging to see that growth in the third quarter. At the same time, you mentioned IPOs, and there were 7 over $1 billion or with pre-money valuation over $1 billion, or with pre-money valuations over $1 billion, I think it was in the quarter, but not yet again, a torrid pace there.
那我就先開始吧,其他人也可以貢獻自己的想法。我認為這確實體現了克雷格在評論中以及對第四季度業績指引中所表現出的謹慎態度。第三季取得這樣的成長確實令人鼓舞。同時,您提到了 IPO,有 7 家公司的估值超過 10 億美元,或者投前估值超過 10 億美元,我想是在本季度,但還沒有完全公佈,這方面的進展非常迅速。
And as I think we all know, thus far, in the fourth quarter, there are no IPOs, SEC, I believe, remains closed. And so, that would be one factor. We are encouraged by some improving exit activity outside of IPOs. And I'm speaking specifically to M&A that could potentially result in further improvement in venture capital sentiment improvement in investment. But there are so many -- again, as Craig referenced, uncertainty, headwinds, et cetera, out there that is just really difficult to predict at the moment, whether that trend we saw in the third quarter will continue in the fourth and beyond. And so that hopefully helps to explain some of our caution there.
正如我們所知,到目前為止,第四季還沒有IPO,我相信美國證券交易委員會仍然關閉。所以,這會是其中一個因素。IPO以外的一些退出活動有所改善,這令我們感到鼓舞。我指的是併購,這可能會進一步改善創投情緒,從而促進投資。但是,正如克雷格所提到的那樣,存在太多不確定因素、逆風等等,目前真的很難預測我們在第三季度看到的趨勢是否會在第四季度及以後繼續下去。希望這有助於解釋我們在這方面的一些謹慎態度。
And maybe actually to pen just one last comment. While venture capital investment to, I think, another point you made is on track to have a second best year ever. That concentration in the mega round end of the segment over $30 billion going to the large AI round. The -- what's left after that really hasn't changed terribly much when you look at what that represents on a quarterly basis and early-stage investment, which is particularly important to the SVB segment. really hasn't come back yet aside from maybe deal count in certain segments having gone up a bit.
或許還可以再寫最後一句話。就創投而言,我認為你提到的另一點是,今年有望迎來有史以來第二好的一年。該板塊的巨額融資輪次中,超過 300 億美元將流向大型人工智慧融資輪。從季度業績和早期投資(這對SVB板塊尤為重要)的角度來看,剩下的部分其實並沒有太大變化。除了某些領域的交易數量可能略有增加之外,其他方面尚未真正恢復。
And so with all of that for context, hopefully, that explains our more cautious outlook there, and I will pass it, to Craig, to you if you have anything to add there.
綜上所述,希望這能解釋我們為何對此持更謹慎的態度。如果您還有什麼要補充的,我會把這個問題轉給克雷格。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
I have nothing to add. Thank you, Marc.
我沒有什麼好補充的。謝謝你,馬克。
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Anthony Elian - Analyst
Yeah, that's great, Marc. And then my follow-up on credit. I'm curious if you've done any broader reviews on policies and procedures, particularly on the CIT portfolio beyond supply chain after first grants and the other recent credit events that have happened across the industry.Thank you.
是的,那太好了,馬克。然後是我關於信貸的後續後續。我想了解您是否對政策和程序進行過更廣泛的審查,特別是針對首次撥款後供應鏈以外的CIT投資組合,以及近期行業內發生的其他信貸事件。謝謝。
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Yes. I mean, that is part of our normal course where we're continuously looking at policies, procedures, our credit standards. It goes through a regular cadence of reapproval, and to ensure that is in line with our risk appetite. So yes, that is part of our normal cadence and our risk management.
是的。我的意思是,這是我們正常流程的一部分,我們會不斷審視政策、程序和信貸標準。它需要定期進行重新審批,以確保其符合我們的風險承受能力。是的,這是我們正常節奏和風險管理的一部分。
Operator
Operator
Steven Alexopoulos, TD Cowen.
Steven Alexopoulos,TD Cowen。
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Hey, good morning everyone. I want to start, go back to Casey's question. So you have elevated expenses related to LFI prep. And if we think about the work you're doing I think we're all trying to figure out how much of the expense level is sticky, right? You're just hiring more full-time people, et cetera.
嘿,大家早安。我想先回到凱西的問題上。所以你在準備LFI(勞動投資計畫)方面有較高的支出。如果我們想想你正在做的工作,我想我們都在試圖弄清楚有多少費用是固定不變的,對吧?你只是在招募更多全職員工等等。
And once you get done with this, let's just say, for argument's sake, it's mid-2026, do expenses from that point start growing at a more normal cadence? Or are there costs in the run rate now that will actually fall out that caused expenses to step down a bit before they start growing?
假設到 2026 年年中,完成這項工作後,支出是否會開始以更正常的節奏成長?或者說,目前的營運成本中是否存在一些將會減少的因素,導致支出在開始成長之前先略有下降?
Elliot Howard - Executive Director, Financial Planning & Investor Relations
Elliot Howard - Executive Director, Financial Planning & Investor Relations
Yes, Steve, I think a few things there. I think while there might be some that falls out, it's ultimately going to be replaced with a lot of the investment that we're doing in tech and simplification. As we look to -- Casey referenced kind of the 6% to 7% guide kind of from the end of the year this year or '24, we would expect that to probably be in the range of mid-single digits next year.
是的,史蒂夫,我覺得有幾點需要說明。我認為雖然可能會有一些損失,但最終會被我們在技術和簡化方面的大量投資所取代。展望未來—凱西提到今年年底或 2024 年的指導方針是 6% 到 7%,我們預計明年可能會達到個位數中段的水平。
So it certainly pulled back a little bit. But I think as we look towards kind of that longer-term road map, as we look to some of the investments in the tech space are going to help scale us for growth. We don't see really the expenses pulling back and going down, but more moderating from the levels they've been at.
所以它確實有所退縮。但我認為,展望更長遠的發展路線圖,我們在科技領域的一些投資將有助於我們擴大規模,並實現成長。我們並沒有看到支出真正減少或下降,而是從目前的水平有所放緩。
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
So they just get replaced with other expenses. Okay. That's helpful. And then -- which is tied to that actually. So if we look at the ROTCE, PAA is a factor, but ROTCE is down about 11% adjusted this quarter. So it's down quite a bit over the past year.
所以這些費用就被其他開支取代了。好的。這很有幫助。然後——這實際上與此有關。因此,如果我們看一下 ROTCE,PAA 是一個因素,但經調整後,本季 ROTCE 下降了約 11%。所以過去一年來下降了不少。
Now I know you're active in repurchasing shares already this quarter. But what's stopping you from getting much more active, just given you're above your target stocks down, I don't know, 17% or so year-to-date just above tangible book. Why not get even more active here? It seems like you have a window to do that.
我知道你本季已經開始積極回購股票了。但是是什麼阻止你更積極地行動呢?畢竟你的股票已經超過了目標值,今年迄今下跌了大約 17%,略高於有形帳面價值。為什麼不在這裡更積極參與呢?看來你還有時間去做這件事。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
And just to be clear, you're talking about in terms of share repurchases getting more active?
為了確認一下,您指的是股票回購活動更活躍嗎?
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Yes.
是的。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Okay. Yes. Well, first of all, the -- we lay out our plan for share repurchases in our capital plan. And we've always said that we want it to be methodical about that. And we believe a range of $600 million to $900 million, which on the time of that is aggressive is a good pace. And that's what we would intend to do going forward.
好的。是的。首先,我們在資本計畫中製定了股票回購計畫。我們一直都說,我們希望這件事能有條不紊地進行。我們認為 6 億至 9 億美元的範圍是一個不錯的速度,考慮到當時的形勢,這是一個積極的數字。而這正是我們今後打算做的。
We obviously have to be very cognizant of while we're doing this of our growth outlooks, internal growth, the economic environment, regulatory changes and just capital deployment options in general. So we believe that, that range is really getting after it. We've repurchased 15% of our A shares and 14% of total common since the commencement of the plan. So we believe our pace is getting after it.
在進行這項工作時,我們顯然必須非常清楚我們的成長前景、內部成長、經濟環境、監管變化以及一般的資本部署選擇。所以我們相信,這個系列真的正在全力以赴。自從該計劃啟動以來,我們已回購了 15% 的 A 股和 14% 的普通股。所以我們相信,我們目前的進度正在加快。
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Steven Alexopoulos - Equity Analyst
Okay. Thanks for taking my questions.
好的。感謝您回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
Brian Foran, Truist.
Brian Foran,Truist。
Brian Foran - Analyst
Brian Foran - Analyst
I'm not sure if you can speak to this, but 2026 NII is obviously such a big debate given the tension of underlying growth and rate cuts. So appreciate the comments that you think or forecast that NII would bottom in 1Q '26. Is it possible to give any bounds on the level?
我不確定您是否能就此發表意見,但考慮到潛在成長和降息之間的緊張關係,2026 年的淨利息收入顯然是一個非常大的爭論點。因此,感謝您對淨利息收入將在 2026 年第一季觸底的看法或預測。能否為這個層級設定一些界線?
And then as you look to 2Q '26 and beyond, any thoughts on the directional bias would you see it as more flat do you think you can grow even with Fed rate cuts? And again, totally appreciate it's early for '26 guidance, but it's the biggest question I hear from investors. So any thoughts would be helpful.
展望 2026 年第二季及以後,您對方向性偏好有何看法?您認為會更加平穩嗎?您認為即使聯準會降息,您也能實現成長嗎?再次強調,我完全理解現在給出 2026 年的業績指引還為時過早,但這是我從投資者那裡聽到的最大的問題。所以,任何想法都會很有幫助。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Sure. I'd be glad to give you some directional color there, with two rate cuts and two in '26. We could -- we would expect both net interest income and headline and ex accretion to be fairly stable and the NIM -- headline NIM and ex accretion NIM to be fairly stable with the exit in the fourth quarter of '25. So fairly stable. If we had more rate cuts, obviously, that would change -- that could change.
當然。我很樂意為你提供一些方向性的信息,包括兩次降息和 2026 年的兩次降息。我們預計淨利息收入和扣除增值後的淨利息收入將相當穩定,淨利差(NIM)——扣除增值後的淨息差和淨息差將相當穩定,因為將在 2025 年第四季度退出。所以相當穩定。如果我們進一步降息,很顯然,情況就會改變——這種情況可能會改變。
Brian Foran - Analyst
Brian Foran - Analyst
That's really helpful. Maybe for Marc, more of just qualitative one, can you speak to the AI boom and where that's benefiting SVB? And then conversely, anywhere, it's not benefiting SVB, is it a size of deal thing? Is it a client coverage thing? Is it a your choices and selections of what you want to be involved in, just broadly, if you could speak to the AI trends that are such a big part of market right now?
這真的很有幫助。或許對馬克來說,更偏向定性方面的問題,你能談談人工智慧的蓬勃發展以及它為矽谷銀行帶來的哪些好處嗎?反過來說,在任何地方,如果這都不能使 SVB 受益,這是否與交易規模有關?這是客戶保障範圍的問題嗎?如果您可以談談目前在市場中佔據重要地位的人工智慧趨勢,您會如何選擇和參與其中?
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
Sure. So starting with venture investment as referenced in my earlier remarks, there's an awful lot of capital going into the space that has been very dramatically different in terms of the investment pace valuation trends, et cetera, relative to the broader venture backdrop, that's where things have been going through a reset or whatever, we would call it, since around mid-'22.
當然。所以,從我之前提到的風險投資開始,有大量的資本流入這個領域,就投資速度、估值趨勢等方面而言,與更廣泛的風險投資背景相比,情況發生了非常巨大的變化,自 2022 年年中以來,情況一直在經歷重置,或者我們可以稱之為其他什麼。
So where SVB benefits is -- and in fact, AI is working its way into all of the other sectors that we focus on in one way, shape or form, an enabler, a feature, et cetera. And that for the companies that are successfully weaving that into their offering. That is enabling them to so many words, get in on the AI boom and be more attractive to investment and there's some parsing there that I think investors are doing not too different from what happened in [dot-com] when suddenly everyone was [dot-com], you had to figure out who really was. Some of that is going on here.
所以SVB受益的地方在於——事實上,人工智慧正在以某種方式、形狀或形式滲透到我們關注的所有其他領域,成為一種推動因素、一項功能等等。而這對於那些成功將這種理念融入自身產品和服務的公司來說,無疑是個好消息。這使得他們能夠說很多話,搭上人工智慧熱潮的順風車,對投資更有吸引力。我認為這裡有一些分析,投資者正在進行的分析與網路泡沫破滅時的情況並沒有太大不同,當時突然之間每個人都成了網路公司,你必須弄清楚誰才是真正的網路公司。這裡也存在一些類似的情況。
But clearly, that spread of that enhancement into these sectors, again, is driving investment in helping us find those better opportunities to bring clients on to lend, et cetera. Where we don't see as much benefit is those mega rounds I mentioned earlier, those going to the very largest AI companies, LLM companies, et cetera, that really hasn't been a factor for us in terms of driving business results. And so hopefully, that color helps with the bifurcation. The very biggest ones, not really our target market, starting to see some benefit across the sectors we bank elsewhere.
但顯然,這種增強措施向這些領域的擴散,再次推動了投資,幫助我們找到更好的機會,讓客戶進行貸款等等。我們認為收益不大的領域是前面提到的那些巨額融資,那些融資流向最大的人工智慧公司、LLM公司等等,就推動業務成果而言,這些融資對我們來說真的不是一個因素。希望這種顏色有助於區分。規模最大的那些公司(其實不是我們的目標市場)開始在我們其他業務領域獲得一些好處。
Jim Hudak - President - Commercial Finance
Jim Hudak - President - Commercial Finance
This is Jim Hudak. One thing to just interject to Marc's point and other places where we're benefiting in for Citizens, we have had a very good ride on the data center side. And a lot of that growth in data centers is a need for capacity -- computing capacity from AI. So on the places where we're actually financing some of the infrastructure, a lot of that has actually been driven by AI. And that's actually helped us on the loan growth side.
這是吉姆·胡達克。我想補充一點,關於 Marc 的觀點以及我們為 Citizens 帶來的其他好處,我們在資料中心方面取得了非常好的進展。資料中心的大量成長源自於對容量的需求—人工智慧帶來的運算能力需求。因此,在我們實際資助一些基礎建設的地方,許多基礎建設其實都是由人工智慧驅動的。這實際上對我們的貸款成長有所幫助。
And one other point I just wanted to make was in relation to -- looking at our loan growth, we've actually benefited from the fact that there's so much liquidity in the market. So even though we are doing quite a bit on the data center side, sometimes we will get paid out because as those data centers get built and stabilized, they'll be taken up to the securitization markets and then we will go and recycle that money.
還有一點我想補充的是——就我們的貸款成長而言,我們實際上受益於市場流動性充裕這一事實。所以,儘管我們在資料中心方面做了很多工作,但有時我們會得到回報,因為隨著這些資料中心的建設和穩定,它們將被推向證券化市場,然後我們將把這些資金重新利用。
And where that shows up for us is actually enhanced capital markets fees. It may not necessarily be in quarter-over-quarter strong growth each time. But a lot of benefits to us when we're financing infrastructure, where it's -- where a lot of that is promoted by the demand for AI.
而這最終會反映在資本市場費用的增加上。未必每次都能實現季比強勁成長。但當我們為基礎設施建設提供資金時,會為我們帶來許多好處,因為許多基礎設施建設都是由人工智慧的需求所推動的。
Brian Foran - Analyst
Brian Foran - Analyst
If I could sneak in a follow-up there, but do we know the size of this data center lending book and geographically, does that show up at SVB? Or does that show up somewhere else in your disclosure?
如果我能順便提個後續問題,我們是否知道這個資料中心貸款帳簿的規模以及地理位置,這是否在矽谷銀行 (SVB) 有體現?或者,這是否在您的揭露文件中其他地方有所體現?
Jim Hudak - President - Commercial Finance
Jim Hudak - President - Commercial Finance
So the data center side is on the commercial bank side, commercial finance. And our exposure is about $3.5 billion.
所以資料中心方面屬於商業銀行、商業金融領域。我們的風險敞口約為35億美元。
Brian Foran - Analyst
Brian Foran - Analyst
Awesome.. Thank you so much.
驚人的..太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Samuel Varga, UBS.
Samuel Varga,瑞銀集團。
Samuel Varga - Analyst
Samuel Varga - Analyst
Good morning. I just wanted to go back to SVB for one more finer point on 2026. Just based on all the commentary you've provided this morning, is it fair to say that the growth to come is more on the new client acquisition side rather than utilization uptake? Or it could be still from both into next year?
早安.我只是想再跟SVB確認一下2026年的一個細節。僅根據您今天早上提供的所有評論,是否可以說未來的成長更多地體現在新客戶的獲取方面,而不是利用率的提高方面?或者,明年可能還是會是兩者兼顧?
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
Marc Einerman - Managing Director, Middle Market Banking
I will start, and I think it could be both, right? It's early-stage venture investment, were to pick up. that would certainly be helpful on the new client acquisition side and helpful to our Tech & Healthcare banking business.
我先來,我覺得兩者兼而有之,對吧?這是早期創投,如果能拿下,肯定有助於我們獲取新客戶,也有利於我們的科技和醫療保健銀行業務。
And generally speaking, if investors are investing more, that is going to help with utilization of those capital call lines, but typically are how VCs fund those investments, recognizing that there is a large significant portion really more than half of the capital call portfolio that is private equity driven and not really about venture investment, innovation economy, et cetera.
總的來說,如果投資者投入更多資金,這將有助於提高這些資金募集額度的利用率,但通常情況下,創投機構就是這樣為這些投資提供資金的,因為需要認識到,超過一半的資金募集組合是由私募股權驅動的,而不是真正與風險投資、創新經濟等相關的。
Though as we saw in the third quarter, that was certainly part of the utilization story as well. And so I'll try to stick the landing here in that we think in an improving environment, we would hopefully see both. But I'll end by saying, again, given our caution, the mixed outlook, et cetera, nothing I've said should be taken as a guidance for '26 at this point.
不過正如我們在第三季看到的那樣,這當然也是利用率問題的一部分。因此,我盡量在這裡給出一個恰當的結論:我們認為,在環境不斷改善的情況下,我們有望看到兩者兼得。但最後我還是要再次強調,鑑於我們的謹慎態度、喜憂參半的前景等等,我所說的任何內容都不應被視為 2026 年的指導意見。
Craig, I'll pass it to you if you want to add or speak on anything?
克雷格,如果你想補充或發言,我會把麥克風遞給你。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
I think that covers it, Marc. Thank you.
我想應該就這些了,馬克。謝謝。
Samuel Varga - Analyst
Samuel Varga - Analyst
Great, thank you. And then just a short one on credit, nonaccruals moved up a little bit, as you noted, Craig, in the prepared remarks. Can you provide any updates or any further color on migration trends or the mitigation trends?
太好了,謝謝。然後簡單說一下信貸方面的情況,正如克雷格在準備好的發言稿中提到的那樣,非應計項目略有上升。您能否提供一些關於遷移趨勢或緩解措施趨勢的最新資訊或補充說明?
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Andrew Giangrave - Chief Credit Officer, Executive Vice President and Assistant Secretary of FCB
Yes. I think it was driven by a handful of larger credits. We had one in the innovation portfolio, which was a non-investor dependent transaction that migrated this quarter. We had a couple of credits in our wine portfolio migrate as well and then an additional credit in CRE.
是的。我認為這主要是由少數幾筆較大的貸款推動的。我們在創新組合中有一個項目,這是一個不依賴投資者的交易,已於本季完成遷移。我們葡萄酒投資組合中的幾個信用額度也進行了遷移,然後商業地產方面又增加了一個信用額度。
Outside of that, everything has been pretty stable. I think I would point out that our criticized and classified assets did come down for the second quarter in a row by about 4.5%. And to Craig's point, I think from a charge-off perspective, absent First Brands it's right in line with where we would expect things to come up this quarter. So we're feeling pretty good about credit.
除此之外,一切都相當穩定。我想指出的是,我們受批評和被列為機密的資產連續第二季下降了約 4.5%。正如克雷格所說,我認為從沖銷的角度來看,如果沒有 First Brands 的影響,這與我們預期本季的情況完全一致。所以我們對信用狀況感覺相當不錯。
Samuel Varga - Analyst
Samuel Varga - Analyst
Great, thanks for taking my questions.
太好了,謝謝你回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
Christopher Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott.
克里斯多福·馬裡納克,詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特。
Christopher Marinac - Equity Analyst
Christopher Marinac - Equity Analyst
Thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to go back over the years as you've had other fraudulent situations. Can you just walk us through kind of how you have evolved your fraud detection in general, post CIT and now post SVB?
謝謝。早安.我只是想回顧一下你這些年來遇到的其他詐欺情況。能否簡單介紹一下,在 CIT 之後以及現在的 SVB 之後,你們的詐欺偵測體係是如何發展的?
Gregory Smith - Chief Information & Operations Officer
Gregory Smith - Chief Information & Operations Officer
So this is Greg Smith. I run the enterprise operations. Fraud has always been a key focus for us, and we have invested quite a bit of money over the past few years in talent and in technology I won't get into some of the details.
這位是格雷格史密斯。我負責企業營運。詐欺一直是我們的重點領域,過去幾年我們在人才和技術方面投入了相當多的資金,具體細節我就不贅述了。
But on a day-to-day basis, we now use AI. We have different algorithms to detect fraud. And we've really seen I'll say, stability in that market, although it is something that is a key focus, and it may grow over time, we have spikes once in a while for individual products, but we have strengthened our environment quite a bit over the last few years.
但我們現在每天都在使用人工智慧。我們有多種演算法來偵測詐欺行為。可以說,我們已經看到了該市場的穩定性,儘管這是一個重點關注的領域,而且隨著時間的推移,它可能會增長,個別產品偶爾會出現峰值,但在過去幾年裡,我們已經大大加強了我們的環境。
Christopher Marinac - Equity Analyst
Christopher Marinac - Equity Analyst
Great. And then Craig, just a quick one for you. As the branch acquisition closes next year. Does that help you become more neutral from a rate risk perspective? .
偉大的。克雷格,給你一個簡單的問題。分行收購將於明年完成。這樣能幫助你從利率風險的角度變得更中立嗎?。
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
Craig Nix - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer of the Company and FCB
It certainly is net deposit based, so less asset sensitive, yes. I won't say -- I haven't really calculated the actual position. So I wouldn't say neutral because it's just relatively small -- relative to the overall balance sheet but certainly is directionally in the right place. I'll let Tom mention, he wants to say something about that as well.
它的確是基於淨存款的,所以對資產的敏感度較低,是的。我不會說——我還沒有真正計算出實際位置。所以我不會說它是中性的,因為它只是相對較小——相對於整體資產負債表而言,但方向肯定是正確的。我讓湯姆來說說吧,他也想就此說點什麼。
Tom Eklund - Senior Vice President & Treasurer
Tom Eklund - Senior Vice President & Treasurer
I think really, if you're thinking about asset sensitivity, I think the major driver is as we start paying down that fixed rate purchase money note is what's going to help get that down. And obviously, if you look at that branch acquisition, that's replacement with deposit funding to that purchase money note, I think that's an accurate statement.
我認為,如果你考慮資產敏感性,那麼主要驅動因素應該是我們開始償還固定利率購債票據,這將有助於降低資產敏感度。顯然,如果你看一下那次分行收購,你會發現那是用存款資金來取代購買資金,我認為這種說法是準確的。
Christopher Marinac - Equity Analyst
Christopher Marinac - Equity Analyst
Great, Tom. Thank you both very much. I appreciate it.
太好了,湯姆。非常感謝你們兩位。我很感激。
Operator
Operator
Not showing any further questions at this time. So I'd like to turn the call back over to our host, Ms. Deanna Hart for any closing remarks.
目前暫無其他問題。那麼,我想把電話交還給我們的主持人迪安娜·哈特女士,請她做總結發言。
Deanna Hart - SVP of Investor Relations
Deanna Hart - SVP of Investor Relations
Thank you, everyone, for joining us today on our earnings call. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team through our website. We hope you have a great rest of your day.
感謝各位今天參加我們的財報電話會議。感謝您一直以來對我們公司的關注。如果您還有其他問題或需要更多信息,請隨時透過我們的網站聯繫投資者關係團隊。祝您今天餘下的時間過得愉快。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝您有美好的一天。