(FCNCP) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I'd now like to introduce the host of today's conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 First Citizens BancShares 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁 Deanna Hart 女士。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for First Citizens Bank's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. It is my pleasure to introduce our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding, as well as our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix, who will provide an update on our third quarter 2022 performance and share our outlook for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023.

謝謝你。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們，參加 First Citizens Bank 的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。我很高興介紹我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Frank Holding 以及我們的首席財務官 Craig Nix，他們將介紹我們 2022 年第三季度的最新業績並分享我們對第四季度和 2023 財年的展望.

We are pleased to have several other members of our leadership team in attendance with us today, who will be available to participate in the question-and-answer portion of the call if needed. During the call, we will be referencing our investor presentation, which you can find on our Investor Relations website. An agenda for today's presentation is on Page 2 of the materials. Following the completion of the presentation, we'll be happy to take questions.

我們很高興今天有我們領導團隊的其他幾位成員與我們一起出席，如果需要，他們將可以參與電話的問答部分。在電話會議期間，我們將參考我們的投資者介紹，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。今天的演講議程在材料的第 2 頁上。演示結束後，我們很樂意回答問題。

As a reminder, our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined for your review on Page 3 of the presentation. We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures in the presentation.

提醒一下，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。這些風險已在演示文稿的第 3 頁概述，供您查看。我們還將在演示文稿中引用非 GAAP 財務措施。

Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix. Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties. With that, I will turn it over to Frank.

附錄中提供了這些措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節。最後，First Citizens 不對第三方提供的我們的收入電話會議記錄的準確性負責，也不對其進行編輯或保證其準確性。有了這個，我會把它交給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna. And good morning, everyone. We appreciate all of you joining us today. We hope this call will be informative and give you a sense of the success we enjoyed through the third quarter and the path we're on moving forward. We announced another quarter of solid financial results this morning, and I'm confident about both our trajectory moving forward and our ability to continue delivering long-term shareholder value.

謝謝你，迪安娜。大家早上好。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們希望這次電話會議能夠提供信息，讓您了解我們在第三季度取得的成功以及我們前進的道路。我們今天早上宣布了又一個季度的穩健財務業績，我對我們前進的軌跡和我們繼續為股東創造長期價值的能力充滿信心。

While we face some economic headwinds and the potential for a recession, we've not seen meaningful signs of stress in our credit portfolio to date. We are encouraged by the resiliency of our clients in the face of elevated inflation and rising interest rates. During the quarter, loan growth momentum continued and was broad across our lines of business.

雖然我們面臨一些經濟逆風和經濟衰退的可能性，但迄今為止我們的信貸組合中沒有看到明顯的壓力跡象。面對通貨膨脹和利率上升，我們的客戶表現出的韌性令我們感到鼓舞。本季度，貸款增長勢頭持續，遍及我們的業務範圍。

The strong quality loan growth we experienced this quarter in tandem with the positive asset repricing we have experienced in the rising rate environment helped produce another quarter of strong net interest income growth and positive operating leverage. Starting on Page 5, I'll highlight the 10 takeaways for the quarter. and Craig will take a deeper look at our third quarter results and prospects moving forward in the next sessions of this presentation.

本季度我們經歷的強勁優質貸款增長以及我們在利率上升環境中經歷的積極資產重新定價幫助產生了另一個季度強勁的淨利息收入增長和積極的經營槓桿。從第 5 頁開始，我將重點介紹本季度的 10 項要點。克雷格 (Craig) 將在本次演講的下一節中更深入地研究我們第三季度的業績和前景。

First, we are pleased to announce that we have repurchased 99.4% of the 1.5 million shares of Class A common stock authorized by our Board for repurchase as of the market close yesterday. The 1.5 million shares represents approximately 10% of the Class A common shares or 9.4% of the total common shares outstanding prior to the repurchase. This repurchase program allowed us to return excess capital to our shareholders and set the foundation to deliver even stronger returns in the coming quarters, given a more optimal capital level.

首先，我們很高興地宣布，截至昨日收盤，我們已經回購了董事會授權回購的 150 萬股 A 類普通股中的 99.4%。這 150 萬股股票約佔 A 類普通股的 10%，或回購前已發行普通股總數的 9.4%。這一回購計劃使我們能夠將多餘的資本返還給我們的股東，並為在未來幾個季度提供更強勁的回報奠定基礎，前提是資本水平更優。

The second one, we continue to focus on merger optimization efforts and remain confident that we will achieve our cost savings goal of $250 million. We estimate that we will come in slightly below our merger cost estimate of $445 million. Number three, pre-provision net revenue continued to be a bright spot, growing by 21.3% over the second quarter indicative of significant margin expansion, solid fee income growth generation and good expense management.

第二，我們繼續專注於合併優化工作，並對實現 2.5 億美元的成本節約目標充滿信心。我們估計我們將略低於我們 4.45 億美元的合併成本估計。第三，撥備前淨收入繼續成為亮點，比第二季度增長 21.3%，表明利潤率顯著擴大、費用收入增長穩健以及費用管理良好。

Fourth, net interest margin expanded by 36 basis points during the quarter due to higher interest rates and strong loan growth, only partially offset by higher funding cost and borrowings. Five, expense management continues to be a focus, and we achieved an efficiency ratio during the quarter of 53%. We're especially pleased with our efficiency ratio given the inflationary headwinds, which are impacting the industry and market as a whole.

第四，由於更高的利率和強勁的貸款增長，本季度淨息差擴大了 36 個基點，但僅被更高的融資成本和借款部分抵消。第五，費用管理仍然是重點，我們在本季度實現了 53% 的效率比率。考慮到通貨膨脹的逆風，我們對我們的效率比率感到特別滿意，這正在影響整個行業和市場。

Six, for the second consecutive quarter, we've had a provision build related to deterioration in CECL macroeconomic forecast in addition to maintenance reserves to cover loan growth and net charge-offs. Seven, despite a larger provision expense compared to last quarter, credit quality remains excellent. The net charge-off ratio during the quarter remained below nonstressed historical averages and decreased compared to the linked quarter.

第六，連續第二個季度，除了維持準備金以支付貸款增長和淨註銷外，我們還建立了與 CECL 宏觀經濟預測惡化相關的準備金。七，儘管與上一季度相比撥備費用增加，但信貸質量仍然良好。本季度的淨註銷率仍低於無壓力的歷史平均水平，並且與相關季度相比有所下降。

Further, our nonaccrual ratio declined during the quarter. We remain pleased with our loan portfolio performance and as covered in detail on last quarter's call, our portfolios are underwritten to endure times of economic stress. With that said, we continue to monitor the potential impacts of higher rates, inflation, a possible recession and geopolitical instability on our loan portfolio.

此外，我們的非應計比率在本季度有所下降。我們仍然對我們的貸款組合表現感到滿意，正如上個季度的電話會議所詳細介紹的那樣，我們的投資組合得到了承保，可以承受經濟壓力。話雖如此，我們將繼續監測更高的利率、通貨膨脹、可能的經濟衰退和地緣政治不穩定對我們的貸款組合的潛在影響。

Eight, loans grew at an annualized rate of 12% during the quarter, marking another strong quarter. Loan growth was broad in both commercial and the general business bank -- General Bank business segments and was an output of the long-term business development efforts from our lenders and our continued emphasis on adding staff in areas that can support quality growth.

第八，本季度貸款年化增長率為 12%，是又一個強勁的季度。商業銀行和一般商業銀行——一般銀行業務部門的貸款增長都很廣泛，這是我們貸方長期業務發展努力的結果，也是我們繼續強調在可以支持高質量增長的領域增加員工的結果。

Nine, while we continue to see a decline in total deposits, we were pleased that the rate of decline was lower than in the prior quarter. As expected, we experienced further attrition in higher-cost acquired money market deposits. The decline was partially offset by growth in our direct bank as we look to remain competitive in the online space. Ten, as a result of strong loan growth and reduced deposits, we did add $3.9 billion in wholesale borrowings during the quarter. Despite the change in our funding mix, we feel good about our current and pro forma liquidity position.

九，雖然我們繼續看到總存款下降，但我們很高興下降速度低於上一季度。正如預期的那樣，我們在更高成本的貨幣市場存款中經歷了進一步的消耗。由於我們希望在在線領域保持競爭力，因此我們的直接銀行業務的增長部分抵消了這一下降。十，由於強勁的貸款增長和存款減少，我們在本季度確實增加了 39 億美元的批發借款。儘管我們的資金組合發生了變化，但我們對當前和預計的流動性狀況感到滿意。

Turning to Page 6. We provide more detail on our share repurchase plan progress to date. We were able to repurchase shares faster than anticipated, allowing us to quickly rightsize our capital closer to the target operating range. We estimate that the repurchases will be accretive to 2023 EPS by approximately 10%. Further, while there is initial dilution to TBV in the third quarter of $15.75 we estimate this will be earned back in less than 3 years.

轉到第 6 頁。我們提供了迄今為止我們的股份回購計劃進展的更多詳細信息。我們能夠比預期更快地回購股票，使我們能夠迅速調整我們的資本規模，使其更接近目標運營範圍。我們估計回購將使 2023 年每股收益增加約 10%。此外，雖然第三季度 TBV 的初始稀釋為 15.75 美元，但我們估計這將在不到 3 年的時間內收回。

For now, we are pausing our repurchase plan as we monitor loan growth and the macroeconomic environment moving forward. We plan to submit our capital plan in the second quarter of 2023. After consideration of that plan, it will be our intent to return any excess capital over our internal targets to shareholders in the form of share repurchases beginning in the second half of next year.

目前，我們正在暫停我們的回購計劃，因為我們會監控貸款增長和宏觀經濟環境的發展。我們計劃在 2023 年第二季度提交資本計劃。在考慮該計劃後，我們打算從明年下半年開始以股份回購的形式將超過內部目標的任何多餘資本返還給股東.

With that, I'll turn it over to Craig to expand on our third quarter financial results. and share our financial outlook moving forward. Craig?

有了這個，我將把它交給克雷格來擴大我們第三季度的財務業績。並分享我們未來的財務展望。克雷格？

Thank you, Frank. And good morning, everyone. Turning to Page 8. I am happy to report GAAP net income of $315 million for $19.25 per common share, yielding an annualized ROE of 12.49% and an ROA of 1.16%. On an adjusted basis, net income was $338 million or $20.77 per common share, yielding an annualized ROE of 13.47% and an ROA of 1.24%.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。大家早上好。翻到第 8 頁。我很高興地報告 GAAP 淨收入為 3.15 億美元，每股普通股 19.25 美元，年化淨資產收益率為 12.49%，ROA 為 1.16%。在調整後的基礎上，淨收入為 3.38 億美元或每股普通股 20.77 美元，年化 ROE 為 13.47%，ROA 為 1.24%。

Comparable EPS, ROE and ROTCE shown on this page for 5 periods or first Citizen BancShares on a stand-alone basis. ROA PPNR ROA and NIM and the net charge-off ratio are presented as if the companies were combined during the historical periods. I'll dive a little deeper into these components in a moment as we look at the underlying trends that produce our results.

本頁顯示的可比 EPS、ROE 和 ROTCE 為 5 個時期或第一個獨立的 Citizen BancShares。 ROA PPNR ROA 和 NIM 以及淨沖銷比率的呈現方式如同公司在歷史期間合併一樣。在我們查看產生結果的潛在趨勢時，我稍後會更深入地研究這些組件。

Continuing on to Page 9, we provide 2 condensed income statement, the one at the top representing our reported GAAP results and the one at the bottom, supplementing those results showing net income adjusted for notable items. Both income statements are presented as if FCB and CIT reemerge during the historical periods.

繼續到第 9 頁，我們提供了 2 份簡明損益表，頂部的一份代表我們報告的 GAAP 結果，底部的一份，補充顯示針對顯著項目調整後的淨收入的結果。兩份損益表都按照 FCB 和 CIT 在歷史時期重新出現的方式呈現。

The section in the middle of the page summarizes the impact of notable items to derive the adjusted results from the reported results. The most significant notable items were $139 million and depreciation and maintenance expense on operating leases as well as $33 million in merger-related expenses.

頁面中間的部分總結了值得注意的項目的影響，以從報告的結果中得出調整後的結果。最顯著的項目是 1.39 億美元和經營租賃的折舊和維護費用，以及 3300 萬美元的合併相關費用。

Page 11, (inaudible) detailed listing of the notable items affecting the quarter along with their impact on net income and diluted earnings per share. I will now focus on the adjusted results at the bottom of the page. Pre-provision net revenue increased by $89 million or 21.3% over the linked quarter and by $224 million or 79.4% over the comparable quarter a year ago.

第 11 頁，（聽不清）詳細列出了影響本季度的顯著項目及其對淨收入和稀釋後每股收益的影響。我現在將重點放在頁面底部的調整結果上。撥備前淨收入較上一季度增加 8900 萬美元或 21.3%，較上年同期增加 2.24 億美元或 79.4%。

The increase for both periods was driven by positive operating leverage as net revenues grew at a faster pace than expenses. Net income available to common shareholders was $326 million for the quarter, up from $270 million in the second quarter and $262 million in the third quarter of the prior year. The increase during the linked quarter was due to an increase in pre-provision net revenue and lower preferred dividends, partially offset by an increase in provision for credit losses.

這兩個時期的增長都受到積極的經營槓桿的推動，因為淨收入的增長速度快於支出。本季度普通股股東可獲得的淨收入為 3.26 億美元，高於去年第二季度的 2.7 億美元和第三季度的 2.62 億美元。相關季度的增長是由於撥備前淨收入的增加和優先股股息的減少，部分被信貸損失準備金的增加所抵消。

The increase compared to the same quarter a year ago was due to higher pre-provision net revenue, partially offset by higher preferred dividends and increase in provision for credit losses. Page 10 provides a view of our year-to-date results for your reference. Page 11 provides detail with respect to notable items for the relevant quarterly and year-to-date periods.

與去年同期相比的增長是由於較高的撥備前淨收入，部分被較高的優先股紅利和信貸損失撥備增加所抵消。第 10 頁提供了我們年初至今的結果供您參考。第 11 頁提供了有關季度和年初至今期間的重要項目的詳細信息。

During the third quarter, these adjustments had a minimal net impact adding $1.52 to GAAP EPS. Turning to Page 12. Net interest income totaled $795 million during the quarter, up 13.6% over the second quarter. Interest income increased by $149 million over the linked quarter due to loan growth and a higher yield on earning assets. Interest expense increased by $54 million due to higher funding costs as the rate paid on interest-bearing deposits increased by 24 basis points, and we added wholesale borrowings to cover the decline in deposits since the end of the first quarter.

在第三季度，這些調整對 GAAP 每股收益的淨影響很小，增加了 1.52 美元。翻到第 12 頁。本季度淨利息收入總計 7.95 億美元，比第二季度增長 13.6%。由於貸款增長和盈利資產收益率提高，利息收入較上一季度增加 1.49 億美元。利息支出增加了 5,400 萬美元，原因是生息存款支付的利率上升了 24 個基點，導致融資成本增加，而且我們增加了批發借款，以彌補自第一季度末以來存款下降的情況。

An analysis of the comparable quarter and year-to-date periods is provided at the bottom of the slide for your reference. Turning to Page 13. We highlight the drivers of the 36 and 87 basis points margin expansion from the linked and comparable prior quarters, respectively. I will focus my comments on the change during the linked quarter where the 36 basis point margin expansion was due to a higher yield on earning assets and loan growth, partially offset by a higher cost of interest-bearing deposits and the impact of additional borrowings.

幻燈片底部提供了對可比季度和年初至今期間的分析，供您參考。翻到第 13 頁。我們強調了與前一季度相關和可比季度相比利潤率分別增長 36 和 87 個基點的驅動因素。我將把我的評論集中在相關季度的變化上，其中 36 個基點的利潤率擴張是由於盈利資產和貸款增長的收益率更高，部分被生息存款成本增加和額外借款的影響所抵消。

While funding costs increased, partially offsetting some of the asset repricing during the quarter, we believe we are well positioned to increase our net interest margin over the turning quarters, albeit at a slower pace than this year. There will be some catch-up in deposit repricing over the next few quarters amidst higher interest rates and strong industry competition for funding.

雖然融資成本增加，部分抵消了本季度的部分資產重新定價，但我們相信我們有能力在轉折季度增加淨息差，儘管速度比今年慢。在利率上升和行業融資競爭激烈的情況下，未來幾個季度存款重新定價將有所赶超。

Nevertheless, we believe the strength of our balance sheet will enable us to weather these headwinds favorably, especially in light of continued moving expect on increasing asset yields. Turning to Page 14. The line graph on the left-hand side of the page indicate we continue to be asset sensitive, albeit slightly less than in prior quarters. We had and will continue to take a measured approach to interest in market rate risk management to position our balance sheet to benefit from higher interest rates while at the same time providing downside protection against lower interest rates.

儘管如此，我們相信我們資產負債表的實力將使我們能夠順利度過這些逆風，特別是考慮到對資產收益率上升的預期持續變化。翻到第 14 頁。頁面左側的折線圖表明我們仍然對資產敏感，儘管略低於前幾個季度。我們已經並將繼續對市場利率風險管理的興趣採取審慎的方法，以使我們的資產負債表能夠從更高的利率中受益，同時為較低的利率提供下行保護。

We estimate that a 100 basis point shock in rates would increase net interest income by 3.4% and a 100 basis point ramp which increased by 1.5% over the next 12 months. The main drivers of our asset sensitivity are our variable rate loan portfolio, which represents 45% of total loans, our cash position and expected modest deposit betas driven by our strong core deposit base.

我們估計，利率波動 100 個基點將使淨利息收入增加 3.4%，而利率波動 100 個基點將在未來 12 個月內增加 1.5%。我們資產敏感性的主要驅動因素是我們的可變利率貸款組合（佔貸款總額的 45%）、我們的現金頭寸以及由我們強大的核心存款基礎驅動的預期適度存款貝塔。

We estimate our full-cycle deposit beta at 25%, which is aligned with our historical experience. Turning to Page 15. We provided some additional information on deposit beta. In terms of our deposit base, 59% of our deposits exhibit lower betas and 41% exhibit mid- to higher beta. Our cumulative beta through the third quarter was 6%. We expect the cumulative beta to be 14% at year-end as our stand-alone fourth quarter deposit beta is estimated to be 34%.

我們估計我們的全週期存款貝塔值為 25%，這與我們的歷史經驗一致。翻到第 15 頁。我們提供了一些關於存款 beta 的額外信息。就我們的存款基礎而言，我們 59% 的存款表現出較低的貝塔係數，41% 的存款表現出中等至較高的貝塔係數。截至第三季度，我們的累計貝塔係數為 6%。我們預計年底累計貝塔係數為 14%，因為我們的獨立第四季度存款貝塔係數估計為 34%。

Again, over the interest rate hiking cycle, we forecast our beta to be approximately 25%. Turning to Page 16. I will focus my comments on the increase in noninterest income from the linked quarter analysis of the comparable prior year quarter and year-to-date periods, for noninterest income increased by 20% and 16%, respectively, is presented for your reference. Noninterest income increased by $6 million over the linked quarter, with core increasing by $5 million.

同樣，在加息週期內，我們預測我們的貝塔係數約為 25%。翻到第 16 頁。我將重點關注可比上一年季度和年初至今期間的關聯季度分析中非利息收入的增長，非利息收入分別增長了 20% 和 16%，如下所示供你參考。非利息收入較上一季度增加 600 萬美元，核心收入增加 500 萬美元。

$5 million increase was primarily due to higher capital markets income and an increase in rental income on operating leases, partially offset by a decline in service charges on deposit accounts as the impact of our recent changes to OD/NSF fees took effect. The higher net rental income on operating leases was due to increased gross rental income on favorable repricing rate offsetting combined higher depreciation and maintenance expense.

500 萬美元的增長主要是由於資本市場收入增加和經營租賃租金收入增加，部分被存款賬戶服務費下降所抵消，因為我們最近對 OD/NSF 費用的變化生效。經營租賃的淨租金收入增加是由於有利的重新定價率增加了總租金收入，抵消了較高的折舊和維護費用。

Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect noninterest income to be flat to slightly down due primarily to elevated capital market fees in the third quarter. Looking into 2023, we see continued momentum in our wealth and payments businesses as a result of organic growth, offsetting the full year-over-year impact of service charges.

展望第四季度，我們預計非利息收入將持平或略有下降，主要原因是第三季度資本市場費用增加。展望 2023 年，我們看到由於有機增長，我們的財富和支付業務將繼續保持增長勢頭，抵消了服務費用的同比影響。

While we expect gross rental income on operating leases to continue to increase on the [heels] of strong utilization and favorable car repricing rate. We do anticipate year-over-year net operating lease income to be flatter due to the timing of more recertification costs scheduled in 2023 as well as the impact of inflation on labor and car repairs.

雖然我們預計在強勁的利用率和有利的汽車重新定價率的推動下，經營租賃的總租金收入將繼續增加。由於 2023 年計劃的更多重新認證成本的時間安排以及通貨膨脹對勞動力和汽車維修的影響，我們確實預計同比淨經營租賃收入將持平。

We also see slight pressure on factoring commissions as potential consumer demand slows. (inaudible) the full year impact of NSF 3D changes, we would project mid-single-digit percentage growth of longest income in 2023. However, with the impact of NSF OD changes, we expect low single-digit percentage growth. Turning to Page 17. Linked quarter noninterest expense increased by $12 million, $11 million of which was core.

隨著潛在的消費者需求放緩，我們還看到保理佣金略有壓力。 （聽不清）NSF 3D 變化的全年影響，我們預計 2023 年最長收入的中個位數百分比增長。但是，由於 NSF OD 變化的影響，我們預計低個位數百分比增長。翻到第 17 頁。相關季度非利息費用增加了 1200 萬美元，其中 1100 萬美元是核心費用。

The $11 million increase was primarily driven by a $10 million increase in personnel expense. This is due to net staff additions, revenue-related incentive compensation, lease increases from inflationary pressures, especially as it relates to new hires as well as higher temporary personnel costs. The net staff additions are primarily related to building out teams to support our move to large bank compliance as well as the backfill vacancy.

增加 1,100 萬美元的主要原因是人事費用增加了 1,000 萬美元。這是由於淨員工增加、與收入相關的激勵補償、通貨膨脹壓力導致的租金增加，特別是因為它與新員工以及更高的臨時人員成本有關。淨增加的員工主要與組建團隊以支持我們轉向大型銀行合規以及填補空缺有關。

The other primary driver was a $6 million increase in marketing expenses related to direct bank efforts to maintain and attract new deposit balances. These were partially offset by decreases in FDIC insurance and professional fees. We are pleased that our efficiency ratio improved again during the quarter, dropping to 53.34%.

另一個主要驅動因素是與直接銀行努力維持和吸引新存款餘額相關的營銷費用增加了 600 萬美元。 FDIC 保險和專業費用的減少部分抵消了這些影響。我們很高興我們的效率比在本季度再次提高，降至 53.34%。

We feel that our continued recognition of cost saves is helping maintain expense growth in the low single digits that otherwise would be in the range of 5% to 6%, given inflation headwind. Looking forward, we expect to continue to feel the pressures of inflation, especially as it relates to wages, professional service and contract call. Despite this, we feel confident in our ability to maintain our efficiency ratio in the lower 50s in the coming quarters as we removed another estimated $70 million out of our cost base helping to neutralize natural noninterest expense growth that exclusive of merger cost saves would be closer to mid-single-digit range for this year.

我們認為，我們對成本節約的持續認可有助於將費用增長保持在較低的個位數，否則在通脹逆風的情況下將在 5% 至 6% 的範圍內。展望未來，我們預計將繼續感受到通貨膨脹的壓力，尤其是與工資、專業服務和合同調用有關的壓力。儘管如此，我們對在未來幾個季度將我們的效率比率保持在 50 年代以下的能力充滿信心，因為我們從成本基礎中再減少了 7000 萬美元，有助於抵消自然非利息費用的增長，不包括合併成本節省會更接近到今年的中等個位數範圍。

Looking to 2023, we expect a low to mid-single-digit percentage increase in adjusted noninterest expense year-over-year driven mainly by inflationary pressures in salaries and wages, higher revenue-related incentives. The across the industry increase in FDIC assessment rates, higher marketing costs in the direct bank, all being partially offset by remaining cost saves.

展望 2023 年，我們預計調整後的非利息支出同比將出現中低個位數百分比增長，這主要是由於工資和工資的通脹壓力以及與收入相關的激勵措施增加。 FDIC 評估利率的整個行業增加，直接銀行的營銷成本增加，所有這些都被剩餘的成本節省部分抵消。

We are on track to recognize [$200] million in cost saves by the end of 2022 and the full $250 million by the end of 2023. Page 18 outlines our noninterest income and expense composition, which remained relatively stable compared to the prior quarter with the exception of a decline in deposit service charges from the NSF OD exchanges I referenced earlier. Page 19 shows balance sheet highlights and key ratios. I will cover the significant components on subsequent pages of the deck.

我們有望在 2022 年底之前實現 [2 億美元] 的成本節省，到 2023 年底實現 2.5 億美元的全部成本節省。第 18 頁概述了我們的非利息收入和支出構成，與上一季度相比保持相對穩定我之前提到的 NSF OD 交易所的存款服務費下降除外。第 19 頁顯示資產負債表要點和關鍵比率。我將在甲板的後續頁面上介紹重要組件。

Turning to Page 20. We had another quarter of strong loan growth with loans increasing by $2.1 billion over the linked quarter or 12% on an annualized basis as our teams continue to generate production above target levels and we benefit from reduced prepayments due to the higher interest rate environment.

翻到第 20 頁。由於我們的團隊繼續產生高於目標水平的產量，我們的貸款比上一季度增加了 21 億美元或按年率計算增加了 12%，我們的貸款又出現了強勁的增長，並且我們受益於預付款的減少，因為較高的利率環境。

Loan growth for the quarter was broad-based, General Bank loans grew at an annualized rate of 12.8% led by the branch network. Growth was primarily concentrated in business and commercial loans. Elsewhere, while overall mortgage loan production was down, we had growth in mortgage loans as we have originated more ARM products that we keep on the balance sheet, where other pipelines are continuing to slow given the rate environment and towards the end of the third quarter, over 90% of our funded mortgage loan volume was for purchases compared to an approximate 50-50 split at the same time last year.

本季度貸款增長基礎廣泛，在分行網絡的帶動下，綜合銀行貸款以 12.8% 的年化增長率增長。增長主要集中在商業和商業貸款方面。在其他地方，雖然整體抵押貸款產量下降，但我們的抵押貸款有所增長，因為我們開發了更多保留在資產負債表上的 ARM 產品，鑑於利率環境和接近第三季度末，其他管道繼續放緩，我們提供資金的抵押貸款量的 90% 以上用於購買，而去年同期約為 50-50。

The commercial bank also -- the commercial bank also saw further positive momentum, posting an annualized growth rate of 11.7%, led by our industry verticals and business capital as well as seasonal growth in our factoring business as retail businesses begin to ramp inventory for the holiday season. In our industry verticals, we continue to see strong production in energy, health care in tech, media and telecom.

商業銀行也——商業銀行也看到了進一步的積極勢頭，年化增長率為 11.7%，這得益於我們的垂直行業和商業資本，以及我們的保理業務的季節性增長，因為零售業務開始增加庫存假期。在我們的垂直行業中，我們繼續看到能源、科技醫療保健、媒體和電信領域的強勁生產。

In Business Capital, origination in the Technology segment is strong, and we are seeing some quarter-over-quarter improvement in the office imaging space. On a year-over-year basis, loans increased $3.8 billion or about 5.8%, primarily due to increases for similar reasons I just discussed. We are very pleased with the execution of our sales teams following the merger this year, and the strong performance has been spread across many business lines.

在 Business Capital 中，技術領域的起源很強勁，我們看到辦公影像領域環比有所改善。與去年同期相比，貸款增加了 38 億美元或約 5.8%，這主要是由於我剛才討論的類似原因導致的增加。我們對今年合併後銷售團隊的執行力感到非常滿意，強勁的業績已經分佈在許多業務領域。

Moving forward, we feel positive about our loan growth prospects. However, we do expect loan growth to moderate to mid- to high single-digit percentage point in the fourth quarter as the absolute rate environment puts downward pressure on customers' lending appetite.

展望未來，我們對貸款增長前景感到樂觀。然而，我們確實預計第四季度貸款增長將放緩至中高個位數百分點，因為絕對利率環境對客戶的貸款意願造成下行壓力。

We anticipate mid-single-digit percentage points increase in loans for the full year 2023, driven by continued momentum in our business and commercial lending and the branch network increased hiring and expansion of our middle market business, continued expansion of our wealth business through adding bankers that expanded presence outside of the Carolinas market and further growth in both our industry vertical and Business Capital segment.

我們預計 2023 年全年貸款將增長中等個位數百分點，這得益於我們的業務和商業貸款的持續增長勢頭以及分支網絡增加招聘和中間市場業務的擴張，通過增加財富業務繼續擴張銀行家將業務擴展到卡羅萊納州市場以外，並在我們的垂直行業和商業資本領域進一步增長。

We do acknowledge that uncertainty around the environment, especially with regard to economic risk and cost actual growth rates to deviate from our expectations. Page 21 shows our loan proposition by type and segment. Composition has not deviated significantly from the second quarter. Turning to Page 22. Deposits declined by $1.8 billion or 7.9% on an annualized basis from the linked quarter. The main driver of the decline was a $1.8 billion decline in interest-bearing deposits due to reductions in money market and checking the interest deposits as we continue to see more rate-sensitive customers and our acquired branches begin to move fund in response to continued rate increases.

我們確實承認環境的不確定性，特別是在經濟風險和成本實際增長率方面偏離我們的預期。第 21 頁按類型和細分顯示了我們的貸款建議。構成與第二季度沒有顯著差異。翻到第 22 頁。按年率計算，存款較上一季度下降 18 億美元或 7.9%。下降的主要驅動因素是由於貨幣市場減少和支票利息存款導致有息存款減少 18 億美元，因為我們繼續看到更多對利率敏感的客戶，我們收購的分支機構開始轉移資金以應對持續的利率增加。

Despite the decrease in interest-bearing deposits, we are pleased that noninterest varied deposits grew by $11 million since the end of the second quarter. (inaudible) within the branch network, which we attributed a continued emphasis on developing client relationships, which includes not only fulfilling our clients' lending needs but also focuses on depository and other banking service needs.

儘管計息存款有所減少，但我們很高興非利息存款自第二季度末以來增長了 1100 萬美元。 （聽不清）在分行網絡內，我們將其歸因於對發展客戶關係的持續重視，這不僅包括滿足客戶的貸款需求，還包括關注存款和其他銀行服務需求。

Our branch network remains dedicated to its strategy to develop client relationships and we believe this strategy will continue to help us increase noninterest-bearing deposits in the coming quarters despite a challenging funding environment. Additionally, we were encouraged to see growth in our direct bank as we have worked to increase balances in the third quarter to help fund our strong loan growth.

我們的分行網絡仍然致力於發展客戶關係的戰略，我們相信這一戰略將繼續幫助我們在未來幾個季度增加無息存款，儘管融資環境充滿挑戰。此外，由於我們努力增加第三季度的餘額以幫助為我們強勁的貸款增長提供資金，我們很高興看到直接銀行業務的增長。

We do anticipate continued growth in the direct bank in the fourth quarter to help support loan growth. Our cost of deposits increased by 16 basis points during the quarter to 35 basis points. The increase is representative of the impact from the Fed rate hikes and our need to raise rates to stay competitive with IPOs. We do remain guarded on the outlook for absolute deposit growth for the remainder of 2022 as the interest rate environment continues to evolve and the Fed impact liquidity in the system by deleveraging its balance sheet.

我們確實預計第四季度直接銀行的持續增長將有助於支持貸款增長。本季度我們的存款成本增加了 16 個基點，達到 35 個基點。這一增長代表了美聯儲加息的影響以及我們提高利率以保持與 IPO 的競爭力的必要性。我們確實對 2022 年剩餘時間的絕對存款增長前景持謹慎態度，因為利率環境繼續變化，美聯儲通過資產負債表去槓桿化來影響系統的流動性。

However, we do expect mid-single-digit percentage growth in deposits in the fourth quarter as we have raised our sheet rates and are offering attractive money market and CD specials in our markets. In addition, we plan to add broker deposits during the quarter. For your reference, we have included high graphs on Page 23 showing deposit composition by (inaudible) and segment. Turning to Page 24. Our balance sheet continues to be funded predominantly by deposits, representing over 91% of our funding base. As Frank mentioned in his comments, we'll note an increase in FHLB borrowings this quarter which is reflective of our continued strong loan growth and deposit decline.

然而，我們確實預計第四季度存款將實現中等個位數百分比增長，因為我們提高了票據利率並在我們的市場上提供有吸引力的貨幣市場和 CD 特價。此外，我們計劃在本季度增加經紀人存款。供您參考，我們在第 23 頁上提供了高圖，顯示了（聽不清）和細分市場的存款構成。翻到第 24 頁。我們的資產負債表繼續主要由存款提供資金，占我們資金基礎的 91% 以上。正如 Frank 在他的評論中提到的，我們會注意到本季度 FHLB 借款的增加反映了我們持續強勁的貸款增長和存款下降。

We believe the concentration metrics will begin to flatten as our deposit balances begin to modestly increase in the fourth quarter. I would like to point out that the FHLB borrowings that we added are variable rate and provide quarterly call features, allowing us the flexibility to remove this funding source as we work to further grow deposits in future quarters. Continuing to Page 25, you'll see that our credit quality continues to be very strong. The net charge-off ratio for the quarter remained at historic lows at 10 basis points and was down 3 basis points from the linked quarter.

我們認為，隨著我們的存款餘額在第四季度開始適度增加，集中度指標將開始趨於平緩。我想指出的是，我們添加的 FHLB 借款是可變利率的，並提供季度調用功能，使我們能夠靈活地取消這種資金來源，因為我們致力於在未來幾個季度進一步增加存款。繼續閱讀第 25 頁，您會發現我們的信用質量仍然非常好。本季度的淨註銷率保持在 10 個基點的歷史低位，較上一季度下降 3 個基點。

Provision for credit losses increased by $18 million to $59 million this quarter, primarily as a result of deterioration in CECL macroeconomic scenarios, only partially offset by improving credit quality and portfolio mix. We also provided maintenance reserves for loan growth and to cover net charge-offs. Moving to the bottom of the page. The nonaccrual loan ratio declined again, this will over to 0.65% and from 0.76% in the prior quarter and from 0.86% in the same quarter in the prior year.

本季度信貸損失準備金增加 1800 萬美元至 5900 萬美元，這主要是由於 CECL 宏觀經濟情景惡化，但僅部分被信貸質量和投資組合組合的改善所抵消。我們還為貸款增長提供了維持準備金，以支付淨沖銷費用。移動到頁面底部。非應計貸款比率再次下降，從上一季度的 0.76% 和去年同期的 0.86% 降至 0.65%。

Despite the provision build, the ACL ratio remained flat at 1.26% and covering quarterly net charge-offs 12.6x and the 5-quarter rolling average 15.8x. Moving on to Page 26, we provide a roll forward of the ACL from the linked quarter. The ACL was up $32 million (inaudible) Net charge-offs totaled $18 million during the quarter, and portfolio mix had the impact of reducing the ACL by $7 million. While the CECL macroeconomic forecast shows some deterioration, we spend to a $42 million increase in the ACL. Actual performance and credit metrics remain strong, attractive, $5 million from the second quarter ACL. Loan growth added $20 million.

儘管撥備有所增加，但 ACL 比率仍保持在 1.26% 不變，涵蓋季度淨沖銷 12.6 倍和 5 季度滾動平均值 15.8 倍。轉到第 26 頁，我們提供了來自鏈接季度的 ACL 的前滾。 ACL 增加了 3200 萬美元（聽不清） 本季度淨註銷總額為 1800 萬美元，投資組合使 ACL 減少了 700 萬美元。雖然 CECL 宏觀經濟預測顯示有些惡化，但我們在 ACL 上的支出增加了 4200 萬美元。實際業績和信用指標仍然強勁、有吸引力，第二季度 ACL 為 500 萬美元。貸款增長增加了 2000 萬美元。

Turning to Page 27. Our capital position remains strong with all ratios above or in the upper end of our target ranges. As of the end of the third quarter, our CET1 ratio was 10.37%, and our total risk-based ratio was 13.46%. The 98 basis points decline in our CET1 ratio is primarily the result of our share repurchase activity. Net income growth outpaced the loan-driven risk-weighted asset grade. The decrease in CET1 helped to optimize our capital ratios closer to our target range, whereas before our purchase -- share repurchase plan, we were well above the range.

翻到第 27 頁。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，所有比率都高於或處於我們目標範圍的上限。截至三季度末，我們的CET1比率為10.37%，我們的總風險比率為13.46%。我們的 CET1 比率下降 98 個基點主要是我們股票回購活動的結果。淨收入增長超過了貸款驅動的風險加權資產等級。 CET1 的減少有助於優化我們的資本比率，使其更接近我們的目標範圍，而在我們購買股票回購計劃之前，我們遠高於該範圍。

During the third quarter, tangible book value per share declined modestly due to negative AOCI adjustment and the impact of the share repurchases not being completely offset by strong earnings. Turning to Page 29. I will conclude by discussing our financial outlook for the fourth quarter of '22 and 2023 fiscal year. On Page 29, the first column with our third quarter 2022 results. The numbers for noninterest income and expense are adjusted for notable items, Column 2 provides our guidance for the fourth quarter and Column 3 for the full year 2022. Column 4 is our initial updated look at 2023 based upon our current forecast and projections.

第三季度，由於負 AOCI 調整以及股票回購的影響沒有被強勁的收益完全抵消，每股有形賬面價值小幅下降。翻到第 29 頁。最後，我將討論我們對 22 財年和 2023 財年第四季度的財務展望。在第 29 頁，第一列是我們 2022 年第三季度的結果。非利息收入和支出的數字針對值得注意的項目進行了調整，第 2 欄提供了我們對第四季度的指導，第 3 欄提供了 2022 年全年的指導。第 4 欄是我們根據我們當前的預測和預測對 2023 年進行的初步更新。

There are a lot of variables that could impact this projection, and this guidance assumes any type of recessionary impact are mild. From a loan growth perspective, we expect a mid- to high single-digit percentage range in the fourth quarter and a mid-single-digit percentage growth range in 2023. We saw a slight slowdown in loan growth in the third quarter compared to the second, while still eclipsing 10% annualized growth.

有很多變量可能會影響這一預測，本指南假設任何類型的衰退影響都是溫和的。從貸款增長的角度來看，我們預計第四季度將出現中高個位數百分比增長，2023 年將實現中等個位數百分比增長。與去年同期相比，我們看到第三季度貸款增長略有放緩其次，年化增長率仍低於 10%。

We expect this rate of increase to moderate due to the increasing rate environment and in fact, have seen some pipelines begin to slow in areas such as mortgage and real estate finance. On deposits, we are actively taking steps to curb some of the higher-priced deposit attrition we have seen in the past 2 quarters. Our expectation for the fourth quarter is mid-single-digit percentage growth, bolstered by continued growth from our branch network, in addition to a focus on adding balances in our direct bank through competitive product offering as well as increasing our broker deposit position.

由於利率環境不斷上升，我們預計這一增長率將放緩，事實上，抵押貸款和房地產金融等領域的一些管道開始放緩。在存款方面，我們正在積極採取措施遏制我們在過去兩個季度看到的一些高價存款流失。我們對第四季度的預期是中個位數的百分比增長，這得益於我們分支網絡的持續增長，此外我們還專注於通過提供有競爭力的產品以及增加我們的經紀人存款頭寸來增加我們直接銀行的餘額。

For 2023, we expect low to mid-single-digit percentage growth as noninterest-bearing and time deposits grow, while money market balances remained flat. We are committed to taking the steps necessary to grow our deposit base to support loan growth, even in the face of rising deposit cost pressure. For net charge-offs, we expect a gradual return to pre-pandemic non-stress levels but have not seen any meaningful strength in our portfolios to this point.

對於 2023 年，我們預計隨著無息存款和定期存款的增長而實現中低個位數百分比增長，而貨幣市場餘額保持平穩。我們致力於採取必要措施擴大我們的存款基礎以支持貸款增長，即使面對不斷上升的存款成本壓力。對於淨沖銷，我們預計會逐漸恢復到大流行前的無壓力水平，但到目前為止我們的投資組合還沒有看到任何有意義的實力。

We expect net charge-offs in the range of 15 to 25 basis points in the fourth quarter and in the 20 to 30 basis points range for 2023. The increase in our net charge-off projection is not due to any apparent stress in our portfolios in present time. Rather, we think the impact of inflation and rising rates coupled with mild recessionary pressures may result in our losses returning to more historic levels, which on a combined basis are close to 25 to 30 basis points.

我們預計第四季度的淨沖銷範圍為 15 至 25 個基點，2023 年為 20 至 30 個基點。我們的淨沖銷預測增加並不是因為我們的投資組合有任何明顯的壓力在現在。相反，我們認為通貨膨脹和利率上升的影響加上溫和的衰退壓力可能會導致我們的損失回到更具歷史意義的水平，綜合來看接近 25 至 30 個基點。

Our current forecast assumes that the Fed will raise rates by another 125 basis points in the fourth quarter for an (inaudible) Fed funds effective range of 4.25% as 4.5% by year-end. Our expectation for 2023 is a rate remained flat for the duration of the year with the first rate cut not anticipated until early 2024. For net interest income, we expect low single-digit percentage growth in the fourth quarter and a generally flat margin. For the full year 2023, we expect net interest in from growth in the mid-teens percentage range, largely on the heels of margin expansion that has occurred in the second half of 2022.

我們目前的預測假設美聯儲將在第四季度將利率再提高 125 個基點，使（聽不清的）聯邦基金有效區間為 4.25%，到年底為 4.5%。我們對 2023 年的預期是全年利率持平，預計要到 2024 年初才會首次降息。對於淨利息收入，我們預計第四季度將實現較低的個位數百分比增長，利潤率總體持平。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計淨利息收入將在十幾歲左右的百分比範圍內增長，這主要是在 2022 年下半年利潤率擴張之後。

And to 2023 from a margin perspective, we expect a gradual expansion from the level seen in the third quarter of 2022. While we will continue to see interest income expansion from earning asset repricing upwards, there remains a lag on deposit pricing and the momentum from deposits repricing in the fourth quarter '22 in the first quarter of 2023 will largely offset the increase in asset repricing.

從利潤率的角度來看，到 2023 年，我們預計會從 2022 年第三季度的水平逐步擴張。雖然我們將繼續看到利息收入因盈利資產重新定價而擴大，但存款定價和增長勢頭仍然滯後2023年第一季度第四季度的存款重新定價將在很大程度上抵消資產重新定價的增加。

As I stated earlier, our cumulative deposit rate at the end of the third quarter was 6% and and we expect it to be closer to 35% over the next 2 quarters, resulting in a cumulative beta as of year-end 2022 of 14% and 25% cumulative over the rate hike cycle. Given that we are currently in unprecedented times as it relates to the velocity of rising rates and the ultimate impact the competition for deposits may have upon pricing, betas could be higher than we were estimating causing actual results to deviate from these expectations.

正如我之前所說，我們在第三季度末的累計存款利率為 6%，我們預計未來兩個季度該利率將接近 35%，從而導致截至 2022 年年底的累計貝塔率為 14%在加息週期累計 25%。鑑於我們目前處於前所未有的時期，因為它與利率上升的速度以及存款競爭可能對定價產生的最終影響有關，貝塔係數可能高於我們的估計，導致實際結果偏離這些預期。

I touched on our noninterest income and expense projections in my earlier comments, so I will not repeat them here. Given that we have completed our share repurchase plan and much has changed since we gave EPS guidance earlier this year, we are updating that guidance here. Even though we intend to resume share repurchases in the second half of 2023, conditions warrant, and our projections hold the EPS estimates do not include any repurchases in 2023.

我在之前的評論中提到了我們的非利息收入和支出預測，所以我不會在這裡重複。鑑於我們已經完成了股票回購計劃，並且自今年早些時候發布 EPS 指引以來發生了很大變化，我們在此更新該指引。儘管我們打算在 2023 年下半年恢復股票回購，但條件允許，我們的預測認為 EPS 估計不包括 2023 年的任何回購。

For the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted earnings per share in the $21 to $23 range, which is in line to slightly above the third quarter. For the full year 2023, we expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the $95 to $100 range. This does not include the after-tax impact of an estimated $50 million to $60 million merger call, which will take the estimate down to an estimated range of $93 to $98.

對於第四季度，我們預計調整後的每股收益在 21 美元至 23 美元之間，略高於第三季度。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 95 美元至 100 美元之間。這不包括估計為 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元的合併電話的稅後影響，這將使估計值降至 93 至 98 美元的估計範圍。

We feel good about our earnings momentum heading into 2023 despite economic headwinds. We expect to maintain positive operating leverage as the momentum from margin expansion the last 2 quarters carried over into 2023 and the last leg of our merger synergies helped to reduce the velocity of expense growth impacted by inflation.

儘管經濟逆風，但我們對進入 2023 年的盈利勢頭感到滿意。我們預計將保持積極的經營槓桿，因為過去兩個季度利潤率擴張的勢頭延續到 2023 年，而我們合併協同效應的最後階段有助於降低受通貨膨脹影響的費用增長速度。

In closing, we are very pleased with our third quarter results and the hard work put in by our associates to make it happen. We remain confident in our ability to grow and deliver on our commitments as First Citizens is well positioned across a broad range of economic outcomes given our relationship-focused client model, conservative credit culture, diverse business mix, strong capital position and most importantly, our shift from a focus on integration to execution and growth.

最後，我們對我們第三季度的業績以及我們的員工為實現這一目標所做的辛勤工作感到非常滿意。考慮到我們以關係為中心的客戶模式、保守的信貸文化、多元化的業務組合、強大的資本狀況，最重要的是，我們的從關注整合轉向執行和增長。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of our call.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲得我們電話問答部分的說明。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brady Gailey of KBW.

謝謝你。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。

I wanted to start on the buyback for the back half of next year. If I look at your common equity Tier 1 today, it's 10.4%. If you include the buybacks that you've done so far in October, that takes it down to roughly 10% pro forma, you'll be growing that ratio back up to almost 11% by mid next year.

我想在明年下半年開始回購。如果我今天看一下您的一級普通股，它是 10.4%。如果你把你在 10 月份到目前為止所做的回購包括在內，那麼預計將下降到大約 10%，到明年年中你將把這個比例回升到近 11%。

So as far as potential sizing of the buyback for the back half of next year, I mean, do you think we could see another kind of sizable buyback similar to the one you guys just completed?

因此，就明年下半年回購的潛在規模而言，我的意思是，你認為我們能看到另一種類似於你們剛剛完成的大規模回購嗎？

Brady, if our projections hold, we would contemplate a fairly sizable buyback in the second half of next year. I would just point out that in the fourth quarter and first quarter, we will be operating much closer to our target ranges. And then we begin to -- if our projections hold, we begin to lift out of that in the second quarter of next year.

布雷迪，如果我們的預測成立，我們將考慮在明年下半年進行相當大規模的回購。我只想指出，在第四季度和第一季度，我們的運營將更接近我們的目標範圍。然後我們開始 - 如果我們的預測成立，我們將在明年第二季度開始取消。

And Craig, the target range is still I know your range is 9% to 11%, but kind of the real focus is still 10% common equity Tier 1.

克雷格，目標範圍仍然是我知道你的範圍是 9% 到 11%，但真正的重點仍然是 10% 的一級普通股。

Yes. And Brady, we dropped that target range to 9% to 10% from 9% to 11% in our capital plan. So the range now for CET1 is 9% to 10%.

是的。布雷迪，我們在資本計劃中將該目標範圍從 9% 到 11% 降至 9% 到 10%。所以現在 CET1 的範圍是 9% 到 10%。

Okay. All right. And then as you guys continue to get used to CIT being in the mix are there any -- I know there are several businesses that came over such as factory and railcar and equipment finance. And the other, there were some unique niches in there. Is there any kind of strategic update?

好的。好的。然後，當你們繼續習慣 CIT 參與其中時，有沒有——我知道有幾家企業過來了，比如工廠、軌道車和設備融資。另一方面，那裡有一些獨特的利基市場。有什麼戰略更新嗎？

Or is there any change in how you guys are thinking about some of those more unique CIT businesses going forward?

或者你們對未來一些更獨特的 CIT 業務的看法有什麼變化嗎？

I'll let Howard will address that.

我會讓霍華德來解決這個問題。

Yes. Brady, I would say not really. I think now that certainly, we're 10 months into the merger being consummated and certainly a lot longer runway than that from infant I think we're very pleased with where we are in this business as I think you look at rail factoring, equipment finance.

是的。布雷迪，我會說不是真的。我認為現在可以肯定的是，我們已經完成合併 10 個月了，而且跑道肯定比嬰兒時期的跑道長得多金融。

We've got very strong kind of industry positions. I think we've been very pleased this year with certainly kind of rail turnaround and where the utilization is. I think factoring, we've had good momentum in commissions and then the business capital -- we've really had strong growth this year and see certainly further room to run there.

我們擁有非常強大的行業地位。我認為我們對今年的鐵路周轉和利用率感到非常滿意。我認為保理，我們在佣金和商業資本方面都有良好的勢頭——我們今年確實實現了強勁增長，並且肯定會看到進一步的發展空間。

So I think the subsequent period, everything is going well, and we've been able to really retain key good leadership there in those spaces.

所以我認為接下來的時期，一切都進展順利，我們已經能夠在這些領域真正保持關鍵的良好領導地位。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

Our next question comes from Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Stephen Scouten。

I guess I was wanting to drill down a little bit around the funding expectations moving forward. I know you outlined some expected deposit growth in the fourth quarter and then into '23. I'm just kind of wondering around the broker deposits, what sort of term you're thinking about adding there what rates you're seeing?

我想我想深入了解一下未來的資金預期。我知道您概述了第四季度和 23 年的一些預期存款增長。我只是想知道經紀人存款，您正在考慮在其中添加您看到的利率是什麼類型的術語？

And then also kind of why it seems like you favor the direct bank acquisition of deposits versus the acquired branches, kind of what the relative benefits are there?

然後還有一點為什麼你似乎更喜歡直接銀行收購存款而不是收購的分支機構，相對的好處是什麼？

Let me start with that last point. I don't think we favor one over the other. It's just that the direct bank has achieved stronger growth as we move into the fourth quarter. So it's really not -- there's no signaling here that we favor one channel over the other.

讓我從最後一點開始。我不認為我們偏愛其中之一。只是隨著我們進入第四季度，直接銀行實現了更強勁的增長。所以它真的不是 - 這裡沒有信號表明我們更喜歡一個頻道而不是另一個頻道。

In terms of just -- and I'll let Tom address the birth of deposit question. But in terms of the sort of the funding mix we would anticipate that we gravitate away from wholesale funding back to deposits, that 91% deposits gradually going up to around 94% in 2023. So from a funding mix standpoint, we certainly would rather have more deposits.

就正義而言——我會讓湯姆解決存款問題的誕生。但就資金組合的類型而言，我們預計我們將從批發資金轉向存款，到 2023 年 91% 的存款將逐漸上升到 94% 左右。因此，從資金組合的角度來看，我們當然更願意更多的存款。

Although we're not alarmed by 91%, our liquidity metrics over green. We're still managing to our low liquidity risk appetite. So no real concerns there, but we would see a gradual shift back to deposit. And I'll let Tom talk a little bit about the strategy around the broker deposits.

儘管我們對 91% 的人並不感到震驚，但我們的流動性指標高於綠色。我們仍在設法滿足我們的低流動性風險偏好。所以沒有真正的擔憂，但我們會看到逐漸轉向存款。我會讓湯姆談談關於經紀人存款的策略。

Yes, sure. So on the brokerage side, I mean, we're obviously trying to split maturities up to not create future cliffs where we have maturities sort of bundled in months there. So we've used the blended approach. We've gone from 12 months, 18 months, 24 months and 36 months here. Start off the quarter and expect to continue that over the coming months, sort of spread those maturities up we view those broker CDs (inaudible) fall under the deposit category, the sort of a hybrid between sort of the deposit base and the wholesale funding to help with that funding difference between the loan growth and deposit.

是的，當然。因此，在經紀方面，我的意思是，我們顯然正在嘗試拆分到期日，以免造成未來的懸崖，在那裡我們將到期日捆綁在一起。所以我們使用了混合方法。我們在這裡度過了 12 個月、18 個月、24 個月和 36 個月。從本季度開始，預計在未來幾個月內會繼續這種情況，將這些到期日擴大，我們認為這些經紀人 CD（聽不清）屬於存款類別，是存款基礎和批發資金之間的混合體幫助解決貸款增長和存款之間的資金差異。

Okay. Very helpful. And then just kind of maybe a little bit longer term as you look ahead, starting the CCAR process next year. I'm just kind of wondering where you guys are in that process, level of comfortability there?

好的。非常有幫助。展望未來，從明年開始 CCAR 流程，可能會稍微長一些。我只是想知道你們在這個過程中處於什麼位置，那裡的舒適程度？

And will that be the biggest driver, I suppose, on ultimately the size of the share repurchase?

我想，這會是最終影響股票回購規模的最大推動力嗎？

Absolutely a factor. It will be wrapped in. Capital planning certainly will be -- we'll consider whether our capital plan would allow for a repurchase. Again, we think our numbers and capital ratios will bear that out. In terms of CCAR, that's definitely the most significant change to our capital program as far as being part of the LFI framework and subject to CCAR.

絕對是一個因素。它將被包裹起來。資本計劃肯定會——我們將考慮我們的資本計劃是否允許回購。同樣，我們認為我們的數字和資本比率將證明這一點。就 CCAR 而言，就作為 LFI 框架的一部分並受 CCAR 約束而言，這絕對是我們資本計劃最重大的變化。

We will obviously be sign the capital buffer based on the Federal Reserve bank stress testing our portfolio and support those changes, massive efforts are underway internally and have been for some time. We've completed a GAAP assessment of our current practices around capital planning and stress testing. We've also completed our annual stress test we got earlier this year, and we feel comfortable about our -- and that's how we establish our targets.

顯然，我們將簽署基於聯邦儲備銀行對我們的投資組合進行壓力測試的資本緩衝，並支持這些變化，內部正在進行大規模的努力，並且已經進行了一段時間。我們已經完成了對我們當前圍繞資本規劃和壓力測試的做法的 GAAP 評估。我們還完成了今年早些時候進行的年度壓力測試，我們對我們的目標感到滿意——這就是我們設定目標的方式。

We feel comfortable were comfortable about those, and we feel confident that we will be able and prepared to meet all regulatory requirements.

我們對這些感到很舒服，我們相信我們將能夠並準備好滿足所有監管要求。

Great. Very helpful.

偉大的。非常有幫助。

Our next question comes from Brian Foran of Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Brian Foran。

I appreciate the EPS guide and all your comments about macro uncertainty that go into it. I just want to clarify, it sounds like you're embedding a very mild recession in there. And then b, any thoughts you can help us with on the size of reserve builds included in that 95 to 100 EPS guide and any thoughts around sensitivity if the economy does better or worse than your base case?

我感謝 EPS 指南以及您對其中涉及的宏觀不確定性的所有評論。我只是想澄清一下，聽起來你在其中嵌入了一個非常溫和的衰退。然後 b，關於 95 至 100 EPS 指南中包含的儲備建設規模，您有什麼想法可以幫助我們，以及如果經濟表現好於或差於您的基本情況，您有什麼關於敏感性的想法嗎？

Well, Brian, in terms of -- and I'll talk about the reserve build in terms of provision. I don't think we contemplate a massive increase in the reserve ratio. But in terms of provision on the increased charge-offs, we would expect around a let's say, $100 million increases of vision expense next year, which directly correlates to increased charge-offs.

好吧，布賴恩，就——我會從供應的角度談談儲備建設。我認為我們不會考慮大幅提高準備金率。但就增加的沖銷準備金而言，我們預計明年視力費用將增加 1 億美元左右，這與沖銷的增加直接相關。

Obviously, as it relates to the -- driving the (inaudible) percentage higher. We monitor both internal and external factors and the determination of the ACL internally. We're looking at our credit quality indicators. Are we seeing pockets of deterioration in our portfolios. Our internal metrics trending up in a bad way. And then all we have in requests for concessions and extensions. And none of that, and Marisa correct me if I'm wrong, but none of that is apparent right now or forecasted into our ACL percentage for provisioning next year.

顯然，因為它與 - 提高（聽不清）百分比有關。我們監控內部和外部因素以及內部 ACL 的確定。我們正在研究我們的信用質量指標。我們是否看到我們的投資組合出現惡化？我們的內部指標以糟糕的方式上升。然後是我們所有的讓步和延期請求。這些都不是，如果我錯了，Marisa 會糾正我，但現在這些都不是很明顯，也沒有預測到我們明年配置的 ACL 百分比中。

We also really monitor the external environment as part of our ACL process. So at the end of the day, to increase the percentage that would be driven by some specific deterioration beyond what's already covered in sort of the baseline and downside scenario waving of our ACL. We wait the downside 50%, we wait they find the 20 and the if the upside is 30 million and those upside and downsides represent -- or project 5% are they on an upside about a 5% unemployment rate the downside about 8%.

作為 ACL 流程的一部分，我們還真正監控外部環境。因此，在一天結束時，要增加由某些特定惡化驅動的百分比，超出我們 ACL 的基線和下行情景中已經涵蓋的範圍。我們等待下行 50%，我們等待他們找到 20，如果上行是 3000 萬，那麼這些上行和下行代表 - 或者預測 5% 他們是在 5% 左右的失業率上行，還是 8% 左右的下行。

And I think we're some ways off on that. So in terms of projecting right now, we felt like it was prudent to maintain the reserve percentage but also add charge-offs. So -- and those things sort of fungible what we could add to macroeconomics and now let (inaudible) right now is our best yes, where we think we are. So at present time, things look good and any provision deal would be related to macroeconomic deterioration in sort of the Moody's forecast.

我認為我們在這方面還有一些距離。因此，就目前的預測而言，我們認為保持準備金百分比但同時增加沖銷是謹慎的做法。所以 - 這些東西有點可替代，我們可以添加到宏觀經濟學中，現在讓（聽不清）現在是我們最好的是，我們認為我們在哪裡。因此，目前情況看起來不錯，任何準備金交易都將與穆迪預測的宏觀經濟惡化有關。

I hope that answers the question, long winded, but that's one that's probably in terms of variability or in precision in the forecast, it would be provisioned and then obviously, deposit bases.

我希望這能回答這個問題，冗長的問題，但這可能是在預測的可變性或精度方面，它會被提供，然後顯然是存款基礎。

Got it. And just to make sure on tariff rating correctly. So basically, you're saying you're building in reserve builds to support loan growth next year but you're not building in big changes in the allowance to loan ratio beyond that.

知道了。並且只是為了確保關稅評級正確。所以基本上，你是說你正在建立準備金以支持明年的貸款增長，但除此之外，你並沒有在準備金與貸款比率方面做出重大變化。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Appreciate it and totally hear you on the uncertainty. I think you're one of the few banks willing to even put your neck out there with an EPS guide. So I appreciate that.

欣賞它並完全聽到你對不確定性的看法。我認為您是為數不多的幾家願意為 EPS 指南竭盡全力的銀行之一。所以我很感激。

Our next question comes from Christopher Marinac of Jennifer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jennifer 的 Christopher Marinac。

And Craig, I'll start with the kind of similar question that Brian did, which is just to get into just the classified and criticized trends. I mean is there anything sort of signaling anything higher just in terms of the charge-offs guide for Q4 with alone just higher provision next year.

克雷格，我將從布賴恩提出的類似問題開始，這只是為了進入分類和批評趨勢。我的意思是，就第四季度的沖銷指南而言，是否有任何跡象表明明年會有更高的準備金。

In terms of criticized percentage, Class 5 percentage, we really are sort of tracking those trends pre pandemic or you could say, at CECL adoption. And when you look at those ratios in the fourth quarter of '19 -- our criticized percentage was 5.16%. It's down to 4.91% and has really declined every quarter.

就批評百分比、第 5 類百分比而言，我們確實在某種程度上跟踪了大流行前的這些趨勢，或者你可以說，在 CECL 採用時。當你查看 19 年第四季度的這些比率時——我們批評的百分比是 5.16%。它下降到 4.91%，而且每個季度都在下降。

And these are combined for CIT and First Citizens for comparability purposes. They turned it down every quarter after hitting a high of [8.28%] in the fourth quarter of '20. And from a classified perspective, at the fourth quarter, we were at 3.35%, hit a high of [5.18%] They also have declined every quarter but remain about 50 basis points over the fourth quarter '19 at [3.83%] and then we look at other credit quality metrics and about (inaudible) of them are better than the pre-pandemic / CECL adoption date. So we feel really good about our credit quality trends. Marisa, do you have anything to add to that?

出於可比性目的，將這些合併用於 CIT 和 First Citizens。在 20 世紀第四季度達到 [8.28%] 的高位後，他們每個季度都拒絕了。從分類的角度來看，在第四季度，我們的利率為 3.35%，創下 [5.18%] 的高位 他們每個季度都在下降，但比 19 年第四季度的 [3.83%] 保持約 50 個基點，然後我們查看其他信用質量指標，其中大約（聽不清）比大流行前/ CECL 採用日期更好。因此，我們對我們的信用質量趨勢感到非常滿意。瑪麗莎，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, absolutely right. All of our metrics have been grinding tighter meaning better, obviously, the pandemic had its impact on those numbers, as Craig indicated, as you see it went up and then back down but we're very pleased to see our numbers back to that pre-pandemic level.

不，完全正確。我們所有的指標都變得更嚴格，意味著更好，很明顯，正如 Craig 所指出的那樣，大流行對這些數字產生了影響，正如你所看到的那樣，它先升後降，但我們很高興看到我們的數字回到了之前的水平-大流行級別。

And in terms of what we see coming in Obviously, the totals are going down. We have some concerns not huge and not of an impact nature, but just watch item -- we continue to watch commercial real estate and in particular, office given all of the continued confusion about back to office. And it's some small, again, very small movement in roll forward from 30- to 60-day delinquencies in our small business leasing business.

就我們所看到的情況而言，顯然，總數正在下降。我們有一些擔憂並不大，也不是影響性質的，但只是關注項目——我們繼續關注商業房地產，特別是辦公室，因為所有關於回到辦公室的持續困惑。在我們的小型企業租賃業務中，這是從 30 天拖欠到 60 天的拖欠的一些小的，非常小的移動。

But again, these are relatively small portfolios. Obviously, what you all and we all look for is the canary in the coal mine. And so far, those are the only areas where we've curtailed some originations. We're not going to be doing new Class B office anytime soon. And we've tightened up the buy box around some of our auto decision small business in that space.

但同樣，這些都是相對較小的投資組合。顯然，你們所有人和我們所有人都在尋找煤礦中的金絲雀。到目前為止，這些是我們唯一減少了一些起源的領域。我們不會很快開設新的 B 級辦公室。我們已經收緊了圍繞我們在該領域的一些汽車決策小型企業的購買框。

But each of those portfolios are in the kind of $2 billion range. So not anything that I think would drive those numbers to be materially different than what Craig said.

但這些投資組合中的每一個都在 20 億美元左右。因此，我認為沒有任何東西會導致這些數字與克雷格所說的有實質性的不同。

Great. Thank you for all the background that's really helpful. And then, Craig, just to go back to the funding comment you made earlier. If 91% core goes up to 94%. I think I heard you right. Is that a good figure to think about kind of the longer term that you stay well above 90%? Or is there kind of an upper bound where you might be something north of 10% on just the wholesale piece?

偉大的。感謝您提供所有真正有用的背景資料。然後，克雷格，回到你之前發表的資金評論。如果91%核心上升到94%。我想我沒聽錯。從長遠來看，保持遠高於 90% 的狀態，這是一個很好的數字嗎？或者是否有某種上限，您可能僅批發部分就超過 10%？

Well, just for a little context there. We've been as high as (inaudible) combined. And recently, we were there. So 94% starts to get it back to that level. And again, I don't want to send in a lot -- we were an alarmed at 91%. But obviously, we'd rather have more by funding represented by core deposits. So that's trending in our opinion in the right direction.

好吧，只是為了那裡的一點背景。我們已經達到了（聽不清）的總和。最近，我們在那裡。所以 94% 的人開始恢復到那個水平。再一次，我不想發送太多——我們對 91% 感到震驚。但顯然，我們寧願通過以核心存款為代表的資金獲得更多。因此，我們認為這是朝著正確方向發展的趨勢。

Great. Understood.

偉大的。明白了。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. So I'd like to turn the call back over to our host for any closing remarks.

我現在不顯示任何進一步的問題。所以我想把電話轉回給我們的主持人，聽取任何結束語。

Thank you, and thank you, everybody, for participating in our call today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have any further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team. I hope you all have a great day.

謝謝，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。如果您有任何其他問題或需要更多信息，請隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。我希望你們都有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。