First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 First Citizens BancShares 2022 年第四季度和年終收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Miss Deanna Hart, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想介紹一下本次電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁 Deanna Hart 小姐。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for First Citizens Bank's Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. It is my pleasure to introduce our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; as well as our Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix, who will provide an update on our financial results and outlook. We are also pleased to have several other members of our leadership team and attendance with us today, who will be available to participate in the question-and-answer portion of the call, if needed. During the call, we will be referencing our investor presentation, which you can find on our website.

謝謝。大家早上好，感謝您參加我們的 First Citizens Bank 第四季度財報電話會議。我很高興向大家介紹我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Frank Holding；以及我們的首席財務官 Craig Nix，他將提供我們最新的財務業績和展望。我們也很高興今天有我們領導團隊的其他幾位成員和我們一起出席，如果需要，他們將可以參與電話的問答部分。在電話會議期間，我們將參考我們的投資者介紹，您可以在我們的網站上找到。

An agenda for today's presentation is on Page 2 of these materials. Following the completion of our presentation, we'll happily take questions. As a reminder, our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined for you on Page 3 of the presentation. We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures in the presentation. Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures are found in Section 5 of the presentation. Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of our earnings teleconference transcripts provided by third parties.

今天的演講議程在這些材料的第 2 頁上。完成演示後，我們將很樂意回答問題。提醒一下，我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。這些風險已在演示文稿的第 3 頁為您概述。我們還將在演示文稿中引用非 GAAP 財務指標。在演示文稿的第 5 節中可以找到這些措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節。最後，First Citizens 不對第三方提供的我們的收入電話會議記錄的準確性負責，也不對其進行編輯或保證其準確性。

With that, I'll turn it over to Frank.

有了這個，我會把它交給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna, and good morning to everyone. We appreciate all of you joining us today, and I'll make some comments about the year, and then update you on our 2023 strategic priorities, and then I'll turn it over to Craig Nix to highlight our financial results for the fourth quarter and the outlook for 2023.

謝謝你，迪安娜，大家早上好。感謝大家今天加入我們，我將對這一年發表一些評論，然後向您介紹我們 2023 年的戰略重點，然後我將把它交給 Craig Nix 來重點介紹我們第四季度的財務業績以及 2023 年的展望。

Starting on Page 5. 2022 was a great year for First Citizens. In addition to the completion of our merger, we delivered solid financial results marked by strong topline growth, low credit losses and well-controlled expenses. We were pleased with the performance of our lines of business, robust -- achieving robust loan growth in both the general and commercial banks. And despite a challenging year for deposits, driven by unprecedented quantitative tightening, we experienced modest growth in noninterest checking accounts and only a slight decline in deposits during the year. Our merger integration is substantially complete, and we're now focused on creating positive operating leverage by growing revenues and optimizing our operations. We remain on track to achieve our $250 million cost savings goal. During the third quarter, we announced a share repurchase plan to optimize our capital levels, and we completed the plan early in the fourth quarter, repurchasing 1.5 million Class A common shares. This plan allowed us to return excess capital to our shareholders while exceeding our CET1 target and is expected to be approximately 10% accretive to earnings per share in 2023. Our capital position remains strong relative to our risk profile, and we believe that we will have the ability to resume share buybacks in the second half of this year.

從第 5 頁開始。2022 年對第一批公民來說是偉大的一年。除了完成合併外，我們還實現了強勁的收入增長、低信用損失和良好控制的費用等穩健的財務業績。我們對我們業務線的表現感到滿意，強勁 - 在一般銀行和商業銀行實現強勁的貸款增長。儘管在前所未有的量化緊縮的推動下，存款面臨挑戰，但這一年我們的非利息支票賬戶增長溫和，存款僅略有下降。我們的合併整合基本完成，我們現在專注於通過增加收入和優化我們的運營來創造積極的運營槓桿。我們仍有望實現 2.5 億美元的成本節約目標。第三季度，我們宣布了一項股票回購計劃以優化我們的資本水平，我們在第四季度初完成了該計劃，回購了 150 萬股 A 類普通股。該計劃使我們能夠向股東返還超額資本，同時超過我們的 CET1 目標，預計 2023 年每股收益將增加約 10%。相對於我們的風險狀況，我們的資本狀況仍然強勁，我們相信我們將有今年下半年恢復股票回購的能力。

From a profitability standpoint, we finished right in line with our guidance and are pleased with our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year. Strong loan growth and rising interest rates drove a 20% increase in net interest income over the prior year. This strong margin growth, combined with solid noninterest income growth and well-controlled expenses, drove a year-over-year 45.5% increase in pre-provision net revenue. Earning asset yields increased by 68 basis points, and we were able to manage rising deposit costs despite a challenging and competitive environment. The pace of rate hikes did begin to put pressure on margins as we entered the fourth quarter. During my tenure at First Citizens, we've been through several tightening cycles, and we've always grown and prospered through them. Looking at noninterest income, our fee income-producing lines of business provided continued support to our net revenue, led by growth in rental income on operating lease assets as our rail portfolio saw increased utilization and positive momentum from higher lease rates. We also saw growth in areas such as wealth and card, despite a challenging market environment for wealth.

從盈利能力的角度來看，我們完全符合我們的指導意見，並對我們第四季度和全年的財務業績感到滿意。強勁的貸款增長和不斷上升的利率推動淨利息收入較上年增長 20%。這種強勁的利潤率增長，加上穩健的非利息收入增長和控制良好的費用，推動撥備前淨收入同比增長 45.5%。盈利資產收益率增加了 68 個基點，儘管面臨充滿挑戰和競爭的環境，我們仍能夠管理不斷上升的存款成本。當我們進入第四季度時，加息的步伐確實開始對利潤率構成壓力。在我在 First Citizens 任職期間，我們經歷了幾個緊縮週期，我們一直在其中成長和繁榮。在非利息收入方面，我們產生費用收入的業務線為我們的淨收入提供了持續支持，這主要是由於我們的鐵路投資組合的利用率提高以及租賃率上升帶來的積極勢頭，導致經營租賃資產的租金收入增長。儘管財富市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們也看到了財富和信用卡等領域的增長。

You'll remember that we announced the elimination of certain NSF and OD charges that took place in the second half of 2022, reducing deposit service charge income, but we've had strong growth in commercial service charges to help offset some of this NSF-OD impact. Despite inflationary headwinds, we maintain prudent expense discipline, which resulted in positive operating leverage for the full year as well as an improvement in our efficiency ratio, which we expect to maintain in the low to mid-50s on an annualized basis moving forward. We're pleased with the growth in loans we saw in 2022 with total loans increasing by $5.6 billion or 8.5% over year-end 2021. We saw growth in the general bank and within the commercial bank in industry verticals and business capital. While we experienced an increase in nonaccrual loans in the fourth quarter, net charge-offs remain well below historic norms. Overall credit quality remains strong, and we are not seeing broad-based signs of stress in our loan portfolio.

您會記得，我們宣布取消 2022 年下半年發生的某些 NSF 和 OD 費用，減少存款服務費收入，但我們的商業服務費強勁增長，以幫助抵消部分 NSF-外徑影響。儘管存在通貨膨脹的不利因素，我們仍保持審慎的支出紀律，這導致全年的經營槓桿為正，並提高了我們的效率比，我們預計未來的年化率將保持在 50 年代的中低水平。我們對我們在 2022 年看到的貸款增長感到滿意，總貸款比 2021 年底增加了 56 億美元或 8.5%。我們看到了一般銀行和商業銀行在垂直行業和商業資本方面的增長。雖然我們在第四季度經歷了非應計貸款的增加，但淨註銷仍遠低於歷史標準。整體信貸質量依然強勁，我們沒有看到我們的貸款組合普遍出現壓力跡象。

Now turning to Page 6. I'll quickly highlight a few of our strategic priorities moving forward, investing in our core businesses to achieve profitable organic growth. We're pleased with the momentum in many of our core lines of business, including our branch network, wealth, business capital, the industry verticals and middle market banking, and we're going to continue to add revenue producers and enhance our capabilities in these areas to remain competitive and expand market share.

現在翻到第 6 頁。我將快速強調一些我們未來的戰略重點，投資於我們的核心業務以實現盈利的有機增長。我們對我們許多核心業務線的發展勢頭感到滿意，包括我們的分支網絡、財富、商業資本、垂直行業和中間市場銀行業務，我們將繼續增加收入來源並增強我們在這些領域保持競爭力並擴大市場份額。

Optimize capital and focus on core deposit growth. A key foundation to our strategy is our focus on full long-term banking relationships, which in addition to making loans includes the deposit relationship. Our goal is to fund earning assets with low-cost stable deposits and this remains a significant component of our go-to-market strategy. In terms of capital allocation, our #1 priority is focus on our customers, but to the extent we have excess capital after funding internal growth, our strategy is to redeploy it into share repurchases at attractive prices. A focus on talent acquisition and retention. We're going to continue to be proactive in adding talent to support our continued growth. In addition to our focus on talent and our associates, we will remain focused on our customers to make sure we're aligning our products and services across all segments in ways that meet their financial needs.

優化資本並專注於核心存款增長。我們戰略的一個關鍵基礎是我們專注於全面的長期銀行關係，除了提供貸款外，還包括存款關係。我們的目標是以低成本穩定存款為盈利資產提供資金，這仍然是我們上市戰略的重要組成部分。在資本配置方面，我們的第一要務是關注我們的客戶，但如果我們在為內部增長提供資金後擁有多餘的資本，我們的戰略是以有吸引力的價格將其重新部署到股票回購中。專注於人才的獲取和保留。我們將繼續積極增加人才以支持我們的持續增長。除了我們對人才和員工的關注之外，我們還將繼續關注我們的客戶，以確保我們以滿足他們財務需求的方式調整所有部門的產品和服務。

As we move into 2023, we will continue to work on distributing the capabilities we have as a firm across our lines of business more broadly, which will help create additional revenue synergies, just clients have access to a wider variety of products. Capitalize on the benefits of shifting from merger integration to operating as a combined company to boost our operating leverage. While we are in line to achieve our cost savings goals, we're going to continue to focus on further optimizing -- optimization and efficiency as we believe there is an opportunity to build upon the efficiency we have recognized to date, and we'll continue to assess processes and capital and capitalize on revenue synergies and opportunities. Manage risk effectively. We're committed to strong risk management and regulatory compliance.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們將繼續致力於更廣泛地在我們的業務範圍內分配我們作為一家公司所擁有的能力，這將有助於創造額外的收入協同效應，只是客戶可以獲得更多種類的產品。利用從合併整合轉變為合併後公司運營的好處，以提高我們的運營槓桿。雖然我們正在努力實現我們的成本節約目標，但我們將繼續專注於進一步優化——優化和效率，因為我們相信有機會在我們迄今為止認識到的效率的基礎上再接再厲，我們將繼續評估流程和資本，並利用收入協同效應和機會。有效管理風險。我們致力於強大的風險管理和法規遵從性。

In 2023, we will continue to build out and execute on our new regulatory capabilities to ensure we meet the requirements of the large financial institutions framework. We have made great progress on our readiness to comply with heightened regulatory standards, and we've worked hard to develop the capabilities and planning needed to ultimately satisfy the regulatory standards. In the coming year, we will be intently focused on executing upon these plans.

2023 年，我們將繼續構建和執行我們的新監管能力，以確保我們滿足大型金融機構框架的要求。我們在準備好遵守更高的監管標準方面取得了很大進展，並且我們一直在努力開發最終滿足監管標準所需的能力和規劃。來年，我們將專注於執行這些計劃。

To conclude, while we acknowledge certain concerns in the broader economy, we enter 2023 with solid capital and liquidity positions and are well positioned to continue to build customer relationships and grow our balance sheet profitably.

總而言之，雖然我們承認對更廣泛的經濟存在某些擔憂，但我們進入 2023 年時將擁有穩固的資本和流動性狀況，並有能力繼續建立客戶關係並實現資產負債表的盈利增長。

We will remain focused on our client-focused model and committed to delivering solid results regardless of the market conditions. I want to thank our associates across the company for working so hard to make us successful in our transformation to a large financial institution, and at the same time, supporting our shareholders, customers and communities.

我們將繼續專注於我們以客戶為中心的模式，並致力於在任何市場條件下提供可靠的結果。我要感謝公司全體員工的辛勤工作，使我們成功轉型為一家大型金融機構，同時也為我們的股東、客戶和社區提供了支持。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Craig Nix.

有了這個，我會把它交給克雷格尼克斯。

Thank you, Frank, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Page 8 of the deck. Fourth quarter GAAP net income to common stockholders was $243 million or $16.67 per common share. Our fourth quarter GAAP results were impacted by the a strategic decision to exit $1.2 billion of bank earned life insurance policies, resulting in a tax charge of $55 million. Favorable market conditions prompted us to exit this long-term liquid asset, and as we receive proceeds from the surrender, allows us to invest in high-quality liquid assets at higher yields, resulting in NIM, capital and liquidity accretion.

謝謝你，弗蘭克，大家早上好。翻到甲板的第 8 頁。第四季度普通股股東的 GAAP 淨收入為 2.43 億美元或每股普通股 16.67 美元。我們的第四季度 GAAP 業績受到退出 12 億美元銀行賺取人壽保險政策的戰略決策的影響，導致 5500 萬美元的稅收支出。有利的市場條件促使我們退出這種長期流動性資產，並且隨著我們從退出中獲得收益，使我們能夠以更高的收益率投資於高質量的流動性資產，從而增加淨息差、資本和流動性。

On an adjusted basis, net income to common stockholders was $306 million or $20.94 per common share, yielding an annualized ROE of 13.89% and an ROA of 1.15%. EPS was in line with the guidance we provided on our third quarter call. Comparable EPS, ROE and ROTCE shown on this page for 2021 period offer First Citizens BancShares on a standalone basis. ROA, PP and our ROA, NIM and the net charge-off and efficiency ratios are presented as if the companies were combined during the 2021 historical periods. I'll dive a little deeper into this component for the moment as we look at the underlying trends that produced our results.

在調整後的基礎上，普通股股東的淨收入為 3.06 億美元或每股普通股 20.94 美元，年化 ROE 為 13.89%，ROA 為 1.15%。每股收益符合我們在第三季度電話會議上提供的指導。本頁顯示的 2021 年期間可比較的 EPS、ROE 和 ROTCE 獨立提供 First Citizens BancShares。 ROA、PP 和我們的 ROA、NIM 以及淨沖銷和效率比率的呈現方式就好像這些公司在 2021 年的歷史時期合併一樣。在我們研究產生結果的潛在趨勢時，我將暫時更深入地研究這個組件。

On Pages 9, 10 and 11, we provide 2 condense income statements and commentary. The table at the top of the page represents our reported GAAP results, and the table at the bottom supplements those results, showing net income adjusted for notable items. Commentary for quarter-to-date GAAP results is included on Page 9 and for adjusted results on Page 10. Page 11 discusses year-to-date results with GAAP commentary at the top part of the highlight section and adjusted at the bottom. All income statements are presented as if FCB and CIT were merged during the 2021 historical periods presented. The section in the middle of the page summarizes the impact of notable items to derive the adjusted results from the reported results.

在第 9、10 和 11 頁，我們提供了 2 個簡明損益表和評論。頁面頂部的表格代表我們報告的 GAAP 結果，底部的表格補充了這些結果，顯示了針對重要項目調整後的淨收入。第 9 頁包含季度至今的 GAAP 結果評論，第 10 頁包含調整後的結果。第 11 頁討論年初至今的結果，GAAP 評論位於重點部分的頂部，調整後的部分位於底部。所有損益表均按 FCB 和 CIT 在所列的 2021 年曆史期間合併的方式列報。頁面中間的部分總結了值得注意的項目的影響，以從報告的結果中得出調整後的結果。

The most significant notable items in the fourth quarter included the reclassification of $135 million in depreciation and maintenance expense on operating lease equipment from noninterest expense to noninterest income, the $55 million tax charge I just mentioned related to the BOLI surrender and $29 million in merger-related expenses.

第四季度最顯著的項目包括將 1.35 億美元的經營租賃設備折舊和維護費用從非利息費用重新分類為非利息收入、我剛才提到的與 BOLI 退保相關的 5500 萬美元稅費和 2900 萬美元的合併-相關費用。

Focusing now on Page 10. Adjusted net income available to common shareholders was $306 million for the fourth quarter, down from $326 million in the third quarter and from $291 million in the fourth quarter of the prior year. The decrease during the linked quarter was due to an increase in provision for credit losses and slightly lower pre-provision net revenue. The provision build was primarily due to an increase in reserves on loans individually evaluated for impairment, slightly higher net charge-offs, the net loan growth and continued deterioration in the economic outlook, all partially offset by a change in portfolio mix. The increase over the comparable quarter a year ago was due to $171 million or 51.7% increase in PPNR, only partially offset by a $157 million increase in provision expense. Page 12 provides detail with respect to notable items for the relevant quarterly and year-to-date periods. During the fourth quarter, these adjustments had a net impact of adding $4.27 to GAAP EPS.

現在關注第 10 頁。第四季度可供普通股股東使用的調整後淨收入為 3.06 億美元，低於第三季度的 3.26 億美元和去年第四季度的 2.91 億美元。環比下降是由於信貸損失撥備增加和撥備前淨收入略有下降。準備金增加主要是由於單獨評估減值的貸款準備金增加、淨註銷略高、淨貸款增長和經濟前景持續惡化，所有這些都被投資組合的變化部分抵消。與去年同期相比的增長是由於 PPNR 增加了 1.71 億美元或 51.7%，僅部分被撥備費用增加 1.57 億美元所抵消。第 12 頁提供了有關季度和年初至今期間的重要項目的詳細信息。在第四季度，這些調整產生了淨影響，使 GAAP 每股收益增加了 4.27 美元。

Turning to Page 13. Net interest income totaled $802 million for the quarter, up over the linked quarter by $7 million. As we anticipated in our fourth quarter guidance, rising deposit costs and an increase in interest-bearing deposit balances caused net interest income growth to decelerate. Our cumulative deposit beta increased from 6% to 14% during the quarter, in line with our expectations. Interest income increased by $134 million over the linked quarter due to loan growth and a higher yield on earning assets. Interest expense increased $127 million due to higher funding costs and interest-bearing deposit balances. An analysis of the comparable quarter and year-to-date periods is provided at the bottom of the slide for your reference.

翻到第 13 頁。本季度淨利息收入總計 8.02 億美元，比上一季度增加 700 萬美元。正如我們在第四季度指引中所預期的那樣，存款成本上升和生息存款餘額增加導致淨利息收入增長放緩。本季度我們的累計存款貝塔係數從 6% 增加到 14%，符合我們的預期。由於貸款增長和盈利資產收益率提高，利息收入較上一季度增加 1.34 億美元。由於更高的融資成本和計息存款餘額，利息支出增加了 1.27 億美元。幻燈片底部提供了對可比季度和年初至今期間的分析，供您參考。

Turning to Page 14. Net interest margin was 3.36% in the fourth quarter, a 4 basis point decline from the third and increased by 80 basis points from the fourth quarter a year ago. Before I discuss the key components of the net decline in margin from the linked quarter, it is important to note that with the pace of the share repurchase program that began in early August, we more fully felt the impact of the reduced earning assets in our margin this quarter, which is essentially tied to the foregone cash, which would have continued to increase in yield given the Fed rate hikes this past quarter. This had a 4 basis point negative impact on the margin during the fourth quarter. While the yield on earning assets continue to benefit from repricing which occurred during the quarter, deposit repricing caught up amidst the competition for deposits. And combined with deposits growing slightly more than loans in the quarter, it had a slight negative drag on margin. Additionally, a reduction in noninterest-bearing deposits during the quarter also contributed to the slight decline.

翻到第 14 頁。第四季度淨息差為 3.36%，比第三季度下降 4 個基點，比去年第四季度上升 80 個基點。在我討論相關季度利潤率淨下降的關鍵因素之前，重要的是要注意，隨著 8 月初開始的股票回購計劃的步伐，我們更充分地感受到我們收益資產減少的影響本季度的利潤率，這基本上與放棄的現金掛鉤，考慮到上個季度美聯儲加息，現金的收益率將繼續增加。這對第四季度的利潤率產生了 4 個基點的負面影響。雖然盈利資產的收益率繼續受益於本季度發生的重新定價，但存款重新定價在存款競爭中趕上了。再加上本季度存款增長略高於貸款，這對利潤率產生了輕微的負面拖累。此外，本季度無息存款的減少也導致了小幅下降。

Moving forward, we believe the strength of our balance sheet will enable us to weather these interest rate headwinds favorably as we expect to continue to benefit from increasing asset yields, while deposit costs are expected to level off in the back half of 2023.

展望未來，我們相信我們資產負債表的實力將使我們能夠順利度過這些利率逆風，因為我們預計將繼續受益於資產收益率的提高，而存款成本預計將在 2023 年下半年趨於平穩。

Turning to Page 15. The line graph on the left-hand side of the page indicate we continue to be asset sensitive, albeit slightly less than prior quarters due to reduced cash balances. We have and will continue to take a measured approach to interest in market rate risk management to position our balance sheet to benefit from higher interest rates while at the same time providing some downside protection against lower interest rates. We estimate that a 100 basis point shock in rates would increase net interest income by 3.4% and a 100 basis points ramp would increase it by 1.5% over the next 12 months, unchanged from the prior quarter. The main drivers of our asset sensitivity are our variable rate loan portfolio, which represents 45% of total loans, our cash position and expected modest deposit betas driven by our strong core deposit base.

翻到第 15 頁。頁面左側的折線圖表明我們仍然對資產敏感，儘管由於現金餘額減少而略低於前幾個季度。我們已經並將繼續對市場利率風險管理的興趣採取審慎的方法，使我們的資產負債表能夠從更高的利率中受益，同時為較低的利率提供一些下行保護。我們估計，利率波動 100 個基點將使淨利息收入增加 3.4%，利率上升 100 個基點將使淨利息收入在未來 12 個月內增加 1.5%，與上一季度持平。我們資產敏感性的主要驅動因素是我們的可變利率貸款組合（佔貸款總額的 45%）、我們的現金頭寸以及由我們強大的核心存款基礎驅動的預期適度存款貝塔。

Turning to Page 16. We provide some additional information on our actual and expected deposit betas. In terms of our deposit base, 56% of our deposits exhibit lower betas and 44% exhibit moderate to higher betas. The 56% of deposits shown in slide that exhibit lower betas are noninterest income bearing deposits and branch network checking with interest and savings accounts. Bench network money market accounts, or CDs, representative of about 26% of total deposits, exhibit moderate betas.

翻到第 16 頁。我們提供了一些關於實際和預期存款貝塔值的額外信息。就我們的存款基礎而言，我們 56% 的存款表現出較低的貝塔係數，44% 的存款表現出中等至較高的貝塔係數。幻燈片中顯示較低貝塔值的存款中有 56% 是非利息收入存款和帶有利息和儲蓄賬戶的支行網絡支票。基準網絡貨幣市場賬戶或 CD（約佔總存款的 26%）表現出適度的貝塔值。

And finally, direct bank money market savings and time deposits, representative of approximately 18% of total deposits, exhibit higher betas. Our cumulative beta through the fourth quarter was 14%, which is in line with our projection last quarter. We expect cumulative beta to increase to 22% by the end of the first quarter as deposits continue to catch up from recent rate increases. Over the interest rate hiking cycle, we forecast our cumulative beta will be approximately 25%. However, as Frank mentioned earlier, we are in unprecedented times with respect to Fed tightening. Our through-the-cycle deposit beta will ultimately be dependent on whether we continue to grow our loan portfolio as expected whether the current rate forecast comes to fruition and the impact of the competitive environment for deposits.

最後，直接銀行貨幣市場儲蓄和定期存款（約佔總存款的 18%）表現出更高的貝塔值。我們截至第四季度的累計貝塔係數為 14%，這與我們上個季度的預測一致。我們預計到第一季度末累計貝塔值將增加至 22%，因為存款繼續趕上最近的利率上漲。在加息週期內，我們預測我們的累計貝塔係數約為 25%。然而，正如弗蘭克之前提到的，我們正處於美聯儲緊縮政策前所未有的時期。我們的整個週期存款貝塔值最終將取決於我們是否會繼續按預期增長我們的貸款組合，當前的利率預測是否會實現以及存款競爭環境的影響。

Turning to Page 17. We showed GAAP noninterest income for the past 5 linked quarters and for the comparable year-over-year periods. Noninterest income as adjusted is shown in the blue bars for the same period. I will focus my comments on adjusted noninterest income. Adjusted noninterest income increased by $2 million from the linked quarter to $290 million. While the total change was not significant, we did see a $9 million improvement in rental income on operating lease assets net and that's net of maintenance and depreciation, driven by higher gross revenue from continued strong utilization and higher lease rates as well as lower depreciation and maintenance expenses.

翻到第 17 頁。我們顯示了過去 5 個相關季度和可比同比期間的 GAAP 非利息收入。調整後的非利息收入顯示在同一時期的藍色條中。我將重點關注調整後的非利息收入。調整後的非利息收入較上一季度增加 200 萬美元，達到 2.9 億美元。雖然總體變化並不顯著，但我們確實看到經營租賃資產淨租金收入增加了 900 萬美元，這是扣除維護和折舊的淨額，這是由於持續強勁的利用率和更高的租賃率以及較低的折舊和折舊帶來的更高的總收入。維修費用。

Maintenance expense on operating leases can be more idiosyncratic and this quarter more favorable. However, we do expect it to move higher in coming quarters. Our fee-generating lines of business also had another great quarter, and we saw increases in service charges on deposit accounts, higher factoring and insurance commissions, increased cardholder income and higher fee income and other service charges. These changes were partially offset by a decline in other noninterest income spread across several smaller line items. Noninterest income was up $26 million over the prior year quarter with the largest driver being improved adjusted real income on operating lease equipment for similar reasons I just discussed for the linked quarter.

經營租賃的維護費用可能更加特殊，本季度更有利。但是，我們確實預計它會在未來幾個季度走高。我們產生費用的業務線也有另一個很好的季度，我們看到存款賬戶服務費增加，保理和保險佣金增加，持卡人收入增加，費用收入和其他服務費增加。這些變化部分被幾個較小項目的其他非利息收入的下降所抵消。非利息收入比去年同期增加了 2600 萬美元，其中最大的驅動因素是經營租賃設備的調整後實際收入有所改善，原因與我剛剛討論的相關季度類似。

Turning to Page 18. We showed GAAP noninterest expense for the past 5 linked quarters and for the comparable year-over-year period. Noninterest expense, as adjusted, is shown in the blue bars for the same period, and I'll focus my comments on adjusted. The primary drivers of the $13 million increase over the linked quarter included a $6 million increase in marketing costs due to efforts in the direct bank to maintain and attract new deposit balances. Net occupancy expense increased by $3 million, primarily due to increase repairs that are episodic in nature and utilities costs primarily attributable to inflation. Personnel costs were up by $2 million. The adjusted efficiency ratio of 54.08% remains in our target range of low to mid-50s. While we will continue to make expense management a priority for 2023 and beyond, we feel that our continued recognition of cost saves is helping maintain expense growth in the low single digits that otherwise would be in the 5% to 6% range given inflation headwinds. Page 19 outlines our adjusted noninterest income and expense composition, which remained relatively stable compared to the prior quarter, aside from changes to rental income on operating leases and other income explained just a moment ago. Page 20 shows balance sheet highlights and key ratios. I won't spend time covering these as I'll cover the significant component of the subsequent pages of the deck.

翻到第 18 頁。我們顯示了過去 5 個相關季度和可比同比期間的 GAAP 非利息費用。調整後的非利息支出顯示在同期的藍色條中，我將重點關注調整後的評論。與相關季度相比增加 1300 萬美元的主要驅動因素包括營銷成本增加 600 萬美元，這是由於直接銀行努力維持和吸引新的存款餘額。淨入住費用增加了 300 萬美元，這主要是由於不定期的維修費用增加以及主要由通貨膨脹引起的公用事業費用。人員成本增加了 200 萬美元。調整後的效率比為 54.08%，仍處於我們 50 年代中期的目標範圍內。雖然我們將繼續將費用管理作為 2023 年及以後的優先事項，但我們認為，我們對成本節約的持續認可有助於將費用增長保持在較低的個位數，否則在通脹逆風的情況下將保持在 5% 至 6% 的範圍內。第 19 頁概述了我們調整後的非利息收入和支出構成，與上一季度相比保持相對穩定，除了剛才解釋的經營租賃和其他收入的租金收入變化。第 20 頁顯示資產負債表要點和關鍵比率。我不會花時間介紹這些，因為我將介紹甲板後續頁面的重要組成部分。

Turning to Page 21. We had another good quarter of loan growth with loans increasing by $1 billion over the linked quarter or by 5.6% on an annualized basis as our teams continue to deliver for our customers and benefit from reduced prepayments due to the higher interest rate environment. Loan growth for the quarter was primarily driven by the branch network, which grew by $1 billion or 14.7% on an annualized basis within the branch network, growth is concentrated in business and commercial loans.

翻到第 21 頁。由於我們的團隊繼續為我們的客戶提供服務並受益於更高的利息，預付款減少，因此我們的貸款在相關季度增加了 10 億美元或按年率計算增加了 5.6%，這又是一個良好的貸款增長季度率環境。本季度的貸款增長主要由分支網絡推動，分支網絡年化增長 10 億美元或 14.7%，增長主要集中在企業和商業貸款。

Mortgage loans grew by $355 million or 15.4% on an annualized basis. The growth was primarily due to prepayment rates, but production was up in our ARM loans, which we kept on the balance sheet. We continue to see our mortgage pipeline naturally slow given the rate environment, and during the fourth quarter, approximately 90% of our funded mortgage loan volume was for purchases compared to an approximate 50-50 purchase versus refinance split in the fourth quarter of last year.

抵押貸款年化增長 3.55 億美元或 15.4%。增長主要是由於提前還款率，但我們保留在資產負債表上的 ARM 貸款的產量有所增加。考慮到利率環境，我們繼續看到我們的抵押貸款渠道自然放緩，在第四季度，我們提供資金的抵押貸款量中約 90% 用於購買，而去年第四季度購買與再融資的比例約為 50-50 .

Total loans in the commercial bank declined by $523 million during the quarter, driven primarily by lower factoring balances, which declined $448 million due to expected seasonal decline following the third quarter high mark. This decline was partially offset by $193 million in growth in business capital loans. On a year-over-year basis, earnings increased by $5.6 billion or about 8.5%, primarily due to increases in the branch network, which grew by $3.5 billion and mortgage channel grew by $1.6 million, and in the commercial bank, industry verticals grew by $1 billion, led by strong growth in health care and TMT. Business capital was up $632 billion over '21 and all of these increases were offset by $742 million decline in real estate finance loans. As we look back on both the quarterly and full year results, I would like to recognize our sales teams for the hard work and excellent execution following the merger as well as for the resulting strong performance that these efforts have spread across our many lines of business.

該商業銀行的貸款總額在本季度減少了 5.23 億美元，這主要是由於保理餘額減少，由於預期在第三季度高點之後出現季節性下降，保理餘額減少了 4.48 億美元。這一下降被商業資本貸款增長 1.93 億美元部分抵消。與去年同期相比，收益增加了 56 億美元或約 8.5%，這主要是由於分支網絡的增加，增加了 35 億美元，抵押貸款渠道增加了 160 萬美元，在商業銀行，垂直行業增長在醫療保健和 TMT 領域的強勁增長帶動下，增長了 10 億美元。商業資本比 21 年增加了 6320 億美元，所有這些增加都被房地產金融貸款減少 7.42 億美元所抵消。當我們回顧季度和全年業績時，我要感謝我們的銷售團隊在合併後的辛勤工作和出色的執行力，以及這些努力在我們眾多業務領域所帶來的強勁業績.

Page 22 shows our loan composition by type and segment for reference. Turning to Page 23. Deposits increased by $1.9 billion or 8.4% on an annualized basis from the linked quarter. The main driver of the growth was a $3.5 billion increase in interest-bearing deposits due to increases in time deposits and savings accounts, partially offset by a decrease in money market deposits. A large portion of this growth was delivered through our direct bank. As you remember from our previous call, we have worked diligently to leverage this channel to increase balances to help fund our loan growth. We do anticipate continued deposit growth in the direct bank in 2023 to help support loan growth. While this channel is higher cost compared to the traditional branch network, it will enable us to reduce more expensive FHLB borrowings that we have added in the past few quarters.

第 22 頁按類型和細分顯示我們的貸款構成以供參考。翻到第 23 頁。存款較上一季度增加 19 億美元或 8.4%。增長的主要驅動力是由於定期存款和儲蓄賬戶的增加，計息存款增加了 35 億美元，部分被貨幣市場存款的減少所抵消。這一增長的很大一部分是通過我們的直接銀行實現的。正如您在我們之前的電話會議中所記得的那樣，我們一直在努力利用這一渠道來增加餘額，以幫助為我們的貸款增長提供資金。我們確實預計 2023 年直接銀行的存款將持續增長，以幫助支持貸款增長。雖然與傳統分支網絡相比，該渠道的成本更高，但它將使我們能夠減少過去幾個季度增加的更昂貴的 FHLB 借款。

Our cost of deposits increased by 43 basis points during the quarter to 78 basis points in line with our guidance. The increase is representative of the impact from the Fed rate hike and our need to raise rates to stay competitive with our peers. Our cost of funding has quickly caught up with our yield earning assets, our cumulative deposit beta was well controlled at 14%, despite the Fed funds rate increasing by 425 basis points since the end of 2021.

根據我們的指導，本季度我們的存款成本增加了 43 個基點，達到 78 個基點。這一增長代表了美聯儲加息的影響以及我們提高利率以保持與同行競爭的必要性。我們的資金成本很快趕上了我們的收益率資產，儘管聯邦基金利率自 2021 年底以來上升了 425 個基點，但我們的累計存款貝塔控制在 14%。

While we expect continued increases in deposit costs in the first quarter, we expect them to moderate and flat in the mid '23 as the Fed reduces its pace of increases and just to lower rates. For your reference, we have included our deposit composition by type and segment on Page 24.

雖然我們預計第一季度存款成本將繼續上升，但我們預計隨著美聯儲放慢加息步伐並降低利率，存款成本將在 23 世紀中期放緩並持平。供您參考，我們在第 24 頁按類型和細分包括了我們的存款構成。

Turning to Page 25. Our balance sheet continues to be funded predominantly by deposits, representing over 93% of our funding base. As I mentioned last quarter, the FHLB borrowings we initiated had quarterly call features in them, and you'll note, we decreased those borrowings by approximately $1.6 billion this quarter, which is reflective of the deposit growth I just spoke to a moment ago. We believe the nondeposit concentration metrics will continue to flatten as our deposit balances continued to increase in the first quarter.

翻到第 25 頁。我們的資產負債表繼續主要由存款提供資金，占我們資金基礎的 93% 以上。正如我上個季度提到的，我們啟動的 FHLB 借款具有季度調用功能，你會注意到，本季度我們將這些借款減少了約 16 億美元，這反映了我剛才談到的存款增長。我們認為，隨著我們的存款餘額在第一季度繼續增加，非存款集中度指標將繼續趨於平緩。

Continuing to Page 26, you'll see that credit quality continues to be strong, even though we did see a small uptick in net charge-offs and an increase in nonaccrual loans during the quarter. The 14 basis point net charge-off ratio remains well below historic levels and beat our guidance. Provision for credit losses increased by $19 million due to a higher provision build and a $6 million increase in net charge-offs. Moving to the bottom of the page, the nonaccrual loan ratio increased to 0.89% this quarter from 0.65% last quarter, but remains below the fourth quarter 2019 pre-pandemic level of 0.97%. The increase in nonaccruals was driven primarily by our nonowner occupied commercial real estate portfolio and more specifically, related to general office exposure in the Commercial Bank segment.

繼續第 26 頁，您會看到信貸質量繼續保持強勁，儘管本季度我們確實看到淨沖銷小幅上升和非應計貸款增加。 14 個基點的淨註銷率仍遠低於歷史水平，超出了我們的指導。由於準備金增加和淨沖銷增加 600 萬美元，信貸損失準備金增加了 1900 萬美元。移至頁面底部，本季度非應計貸款比率從上一季度的 0.65% 上升至 0.89%，但仍低於 2019 年第四季度大流行前水平 0.97%。非應計項目的增加主要是由我們的非所有者佔用的商業房地產投資組合推動的，更具體地說，與商業銀行部門的一般辦公室敞口有關。

You may remember, we discussed potential concerns in this portfolio last quarter and some of these changes have now pushed through to the portfolio. We've been closely monitoring this portfolio at the start of the pandemic and are continuing to see market disruption due to hybrid work models, which impact vacancy and leasing rates. We have also seen an uptick in charge-offs and credit quality metrics and our small ticket leasing portfolio and in business capital as borrowers continue to face inflationary pressures and supply chain disruption. We are also monitoring this portfolio closely and have modified our credit risk appetite for new originations during the recent months. While we do not believe these 2 portfolios are necessarily predictive of trend in the broader portfolio, we are actively monitoring them to ensure any potential trends are identified early. Our allowance ratio increased by 4 basis points to 1.3% during the fourth quarter.

您可能還記得，我們在上個季度討論了該投資組合中的潛在問題，其中一些變化現已推進到投資組合中。在大流行開始時，我們一直在密切關注這一投資組合，並繼續看到由於混合工作模式導致的市場中斷，這會影響空置率和租賃率。隨著借款人繼續面臨通脹壓力和供應鏈中斷，我們還看到沖銷和信用質量指標以及我們的小票租賃組合和商業資本有所上升。我們也在密切監控這個投資組合，並在最近幾個月修改了我們對新發起的信用風險偏好。雖然我們認為這兩個投資組合不一定能預測更廣泛投資組合的趨勢，但我們正在積極監控它們以確保及早發現任何潛在趨勢。我們的撥備比率在第四季度增加了 4 個基點，達到 1.3%。

Moving on to Page 27. We provide a roll forward of the ACL from the linked quarter. For our CECL modeling, we start with the Moody's baseline scenario and then wait to both the upside and downside scenarios depending on market conditions.

轉到第 27 頁。我們從鏈接的季度提供 ACL 的前滾。對於我們的 CECL 模型，我們從穆迪的基準情景開始，然後根據市場狀況等待上行和下行情景。

This quarter, baseline estimates reflected a continued slowdown in the economy, the elevated interest rate environment and meaningful reduction in real estate values, all of which impacted our allowance levels.

本季度，基線估計反映了經濟持續放緩、利率環境升高和房地產價值顯著下降，所有這些都影響了我們的津貼水平。

As we have now begun to see our baseline forecast more closely aligned to the downside scenario, we adjusted our scenario weighting this quarter given that our baseline reserves now incorporate more recessionary risk. Our current weighting is 30% to the upside, 30% to the baseline and 40% to the downside, reflecting a 10% shift between the downside weighting and the baseline weighting from the previous quarter. The ACL increased by $40 million over the third quarter, now totaling $922 million or 1.3% of total loans. We did have a net reserve build in the fourth quarter and are operating our company with the expectation for a mild recession in 2023. Our reserve build for the quarter was due to the net growth in the loans an increase in specific reserves on individually evaluated loans as well as a slightly more negative macroeconomic outlook than in the prior quarter. These negative impacts were partially offset by a decline related to a mix shift during the quarter to portfolios with lower reserve rates. The ACL provided 9.3 years coverage of fourth quarter net charge-off on a portfolio with a weighted average life of approximately 3.5 years.

由於我們現在開始看到我們的基線預測與下行情景更接近，因此我們調整了本季度的情景權重，因為我們的基線儲備現在包含更多的衰退風險。我們目前的權重為上行 30%、基線 30% 和下行 40%，反映出上一季度下行權重和基線權重之間有 10% 的變化。 ACL 在第三季度增加了 4000 萬美元，目前總額為 9.22 億美元，佔貸款總額的 1.3%。我們確實在第四季度建立了淨準備金，並在預計 2023 年會出現溫和衰退的情況下運營我們的公司。我們本季度的準備金增加是由於貸款淨增長以及單獨評估貸款的特定準備金增加以及比上一季度略微更負面的宏觀經濟前景。這些負面影響被本季度混合轉向準備金率較低的投資組合相關的下降所部分抵消。 ACL 為加權平均壽命約為 3.5 年的投資組合提供了 9.3 年的第四季度淨沖銷覆蓋範圍。

Turning to Page 28. Our capital position remains strong with all ratios above or in the upper end of our target ranges. At the end of the fourth quarter, our CET1 ratio was 10.08% and our total risk-based capital ratio was 13.18%. The 29 basis points decline in our CET ratio was primarily the result of our share repurchase activity, which concluded in October. Net income growth continued to outpace loan-driven risk-weighted asset growth and the decrease in CET1 helped to optimize our capital ratios closer to our target ranges. Whereas before our share repurchase plan, we were well above them.

翻到第 28 頁。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，所有比率都高於或處於我們目標範圍的上限。第四季度末，我們的CET1比率為10.08%，我們的總風險資本比率為13.18%。我們的 CET 比率下降 29 個基點主要是我們 10 月份結束的股票回購活動的結果。淨收入增長繼續超過貸款驅動的風險加權資產增長，CET1 的減少有助於優化我們的資本比率，使其更接近我們的目標範圍。而在我們的股票回購計劃之前，我們遠遠高於他們。

As Frank mentioned in his comments, we plan to pursue another share repurchase plan in the second half 2023. I feel confident in our ability to execute on this plan while remaining within our target capital ranges. During the fourth quarter, tangible book value per share increased modestly due to strong earnings performance, which more than offset the impact of AOCI and the share repurchase plan.

正如 Frank 在他的評論中提到的，我們計劃在 2023 年下半年實施另一項股票回購計劃。我對我們在保持在目標資本範圍內的同時執行該計劃的能力充滿信心。第四季度，由於強勁的盈利表現，每股有形賬面價值溫和增長，抵消了 AOCI 和股票回購計劃的影響。

Turning to Page 29. We summarize our BOLI surrender strategy as well as with its financial benefits. Much of our investment activity during the fourth quarter was a result of this decision and while this resulted in a $55 million tax charge in the fourth quarter, we anticipate to payback on the strategy to be approximately 2 years. This is in line with our long-term view of the business and emphasis on driving tangible book value growth. We were able to pre invest the additional liquidity and high-yielding investments, which should help to meaningfully increase our investment portfolio yield in the first quarter of 2023. The impacts from this surrender are reflected in our financial outlook that I will share next.

翻到第 29 頁。我們總結了我們的 BOLI 退保策略及其財務收益。我們在第四季度的大部分投資活動都是這一決定的結果，雖然這導致第四季度產生了 5500 萬美元的稅款，但我們預計該戰略的回報期約為 2 年。這符合我們對業務的長期看法以及對推動有形賬面價值增長的重視。我們能夠預先投資額外的流動性和高收益投資，這應該有助於在 2023 年第一季度顯著提高我們的投資組合收益率。這次放棄的影響反映在我接下來將分享的我們的財務展望中。

Turning to Page 31. I will conclude by discussing our financial outlook for the first quarter and full year 2023. The first column is our fourth quarter 2022 results. The numbers for noninterest income expense are adjusted for notable items. Column 2 provides our guidance for the first quarter of 2023 and column 3 for the full year. There are a lot of variables that could impact this projection, and this guidance continues to assume recessionary impacts are mild.

翻到第 31 頁。最後，我將討論我們對 2023 年第一季度和全年的財務展望。第一列是我們 2022 年第四季度的業績。非利息收入支出的數字針對值得注意的項目進行了調整。第 2 欄提供了我們對 2023 年第一季度的指導，第 3 欄提供了全年的指導。有很多變量可能會影響這一預測，並且本指南繼續假設經濟衰退的影響是溫和的。

Okay. For loans. During the fourth quarter, loans grew an annualized rate of 5.6%, down from the high double-digit percentage growth rate in the second and third quarters. We expect flat to low single-digit percentage annualized loan growth in the first quarter as the absolute rate environment put downward pressure on customers' lending appetite and given seasonal patterns typically witnessed during this period. For the full year, we believe the mid-single-digit percentage growth in the fourth quarter is more indicative of where it will be for the full year 2023. While the absolute rate environment and economic uncertainty is tempering our clients' appetite to borrow in some segments, we still have strong pipelines in many of our core areas, and coupled with low rates of prepayment, this will lead us to mid-single-digit loan growth in 2023.

好的。對於貸款。第四季度，貸款年化增長率為 5.6%，低於第二和第三季度兩位數的高增長率。由於絕對利率環境對客戶的貸款胃口施加下行壓力，並且考慮到這一時期通常出現的季節性模式，我們預計第一季度的年化貸款增長率將持平至較低的個位數百分比。對於全年，我們認為第四季度的中等個位數百分比增長更能說明 2023 年全年的情況。雖然絕對利率環境和經濟不確定性正在抑制我們客戶借貸的意願在某些細分市場，我們在許多核心領域仍然擁有強大的管道，再加上較低的提前還款率，這將使我們在 2023 年實現中等個位數的貸款增長。

We think loan growth will be driven by continued momentum in business and commercial lending in the branch network. Our middle market business due to continued additions to our sales force, continued expansion of our wealth business through adding bankers and expanded presence outside of the Carolinas market and further growth both in our industry verticals and business capital segments.

我們認為貸款增長將受到分支網絡中商業和商業貸款持續增長的推動。我們的中間市場業務是由於我們的銷售人員不斷增加，通過增加銀行家和擴大在卡羅來納州市場以外的存在以及我們的垂直行業和商業資本部門的進一步增長來繼續擴大我們的財富業務。

Offsetting this growth, we do expect to see continued declines in real estate finance as both client appetite to borrow is diminished in the current rate environment, and we remain selective on the terms to extend new credit. We do acknowledge that uncertainty around the external environment, especially regarding economic risk and the pace of continued interest rate hike could cause actual growth rates to deviate from our expectations.

為抵消這種增長，我們確實預計房地產融資將持續下滑，因為在當前利率環境下，客戶的借貸意願減弱，而且我們在提供新信貸的條款上仍然有選擇性。我們確實承認圍繞外部環境的不確定性，特別是經濟風險和持續加息步伐可能導致實際增長率偏離我們的預期。

Moving on to deposits. During the fourth quarter, we actively put steps to curb some of the higher-priced deposit attrition we experienced in the second and third quarters and successfully grew balance in the fourth quarter at an annualized rate of 8% led by the direct bank. Our expectation for the first quarter is high single-digit annualized percentage growth based upon momentum and our direct bank and the seasonality in both our branch network and homeowners association banking business. Our expectation is that this heightened growth in the first quarter will enable us to pay down some of the outstanding FHLB advance as we currently have on the balance sheet.

繼續存款。在第四季度，我們積極採取措施遏制我們在第二季度和第三季度經歷的一些高價存款流失，並在直接銀行的帶領下在第四季度以 8% 的年化率成功增長了余額。我們對第一季度的預期是高個位數的年化百分比增長，這取決於勢頭和我們的直接銀行以及我們的分支網絡和房主協會銀行業務的季節性。我們的預期是，第一季度的這種增長將使我們能夠支付我們目前在資產負債表上的一些未償還的 FHLB 預付款。

On the full year, we expect mid-single-digit percentage growth of noninterest-bearing growth also in mid-single digits. While the high interest rate environment is a headwind here, we believe the client acquisition and our relationship based approach that emphasizes no loan to alone will help drive our deposit growth in 2023. From an interest rate perspective, our outlook assumes that rates follow the implied forward curve. We forecast 2 interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2023 and one in the second with the Fed funds rate peaking at a range of 5% to 5.25%. In the back half of the year, we forecast 2.25% basis points reduction in the Fed funds rate, ending the year at a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The expected timing of the cut leads to a reduction in the inversion of the yield curve in the back half of '23, which helps moderate some of the pressure on net interest margin.

在全年中，我們預計非利息增長的百分比增長率也將達到中等個位數。雖然高利率環境在這裡是一個不利因素，但我們認為，客戶獲取和我們強調不單獨貸款的基於關係的方法將有助於推動我們在 2023 年的存款增長。從利率的角度來看，我們的前景假設利率遵循隱含的前向曲線。我們預測 2023 年第一季度將加息兩次，第二季度將加息一次，聯邦基金利率將在 5% 至 5.25% 的範圍內達到峰值。今年下半年，我們預測聯邦基金利率將下降 2.25% 個基點，年末利率將在 4.5% 至 4.75% 之間。預期的降息時間導致 23 年下半年收益率曲線倒掛的減少，這有助於緩解淨息差的一些壓力。

Now on the net interest income. For the first quarter, we expect flat to a slightly negative annualized percentage decline compared to the fourth quarter, primarily on reduced day count. We expect net interest margin to be stable relative to the fourth quarter. On a full year basis, we expect net interest margin to be stable to modestly increasing and year-over-year net interest income growth to be in the mid-teens percentage growth range largely on the yield of improvement that we achieved in 2022.

現在關於淨利息收入。對於第一季度，我們預計與第四季度相比年化百分比下降持平或略有負數，主要是由於天數減少。我們預計淨息差相對於四季度將保持穩定。從全年來看，我們預計淨息差將穩定至適度增長，淨利息收入同比增長將處於中等百分比增長范圍內，這主要取決於我們在 2022 年實現的改善收益率。

Our forecast includes some lagged pricing impact on deposits, and we project our cumulative deposit beta will increase from 14% to 22% in the first quarter. However, our variable loan portfolio will help temper the impact of increased deposit costs. And throughout 2023, we expect to benefit from the large favorable gap between new production yields and existing book yields on fixed rate loans and investments. This continued repricing of fixed rate loans and investments will help us achieve moderate margin expansion starting in the second quarter and in the back half of 2023. However, it's important to point out that most of the benefit of margin expansion are behind us. The net interest income outlook remains uncertain and changes to our interest rate assumptions could have meaningful impacts to deposit product and pricing decisions as well as customer behavior and competitive dynamics. While we don't expect meaningful disintermediation of our noninterest-bearing account, it's something we will continue to monitor.

我們的預測包括對存款的一些滯後定價影響，我們預計第一季度我們的累計存款貝塔值將從 14% 增加到 22%。然而，我們的可變貸款組合將有助於緩和存款成本增加的影響。在整個 2023 年，我們預計將受益於新產品收益率與固定利率貸款和投資的現有賬面收益率之間的巨大有利差距。固定利率貸款和投資的持續重新定價將幫助我們從第二季度和 2023 年下半年開始實現適度的利潤率擴張。但是，重要的是要指出利潤率擴張的大部分好處已經過去。淨利息收入前景仍然不確定，我們利率假設的變化可能會對存款產品和定價決策以及客戶行為和競爭動態產生重大影響。雖然我們預計我們的無息賬戶不會出現有意義的非中介化，但我們將繼續監控這一點。

From a credit loss perspective, we are not seeing broad concerning trends in our portfolio with the stress related to a few smaller portfolios that I mentioned earlier. We are actively monitoring these portfolios and have taken proactive steps to limit our exposure. We do expect net charge-offs to continue to uptick in the next quarter in the range of 15 to 25 basis points and begin to return to more historical levels.

從信用損失的角度來看，我們沒有看到我們的投資組合中存在廣泛的擔憂趨勢，而壓力與我之前提到的一些較小的投資組合有關。我們正在積極監控這些投資組合，並已採取積極措施來限制我們的風險敞口。我們確實預計下一季度淨註銷將繼續上升 15 至 25 個基點，並開始回到更多的歷史水平。

From the full year 2023, we expect net charge-offs in the 20 to 30 basis points range. We continue to expect strong credit performance in our general bank segment in many areas and in many areas of our commercial segment and again, have not seen signs of deterioration broadly.

從 2023 年全年開始，我們預計淨沖銷將在 20 至 30 個基點範圍內。我們繼續預計我們的一般銀行部門在許多領域和我們商業部門的許多領域都有強勁的信貸表現，並且沒有看到廣泛惡化的跡象。

On the noninterest income, compared to the fourth quarter, we expect flat to low single-digit annualized percentage decline, primarily due to the reduction of BOLI income and seasonal factoring declines being partially offset by continued growth in our wealth and payments lines of business. In terms of full 2023 guidance, we expect flat to low single-digit percentage growth. While we project mid- to high single-digit growth in net operating lease income for the full year, we do expect a slight quarterly decline in the first quarter based upon lower maintenance expense in the fourth quarter of '22. We expect continued momentum in our wealth and payments businesses as a result of organic growth, which we believe will be offset by the full year-over-year impact of lower service charges, the reduction in BOLI income and a decline in factory commissions resulting from slower consumer demand. Absent the full year impact of NSF-OD changes, and the BOLI reduction, we will project closer to mid-single digit percentage growth in noninterest income.

在非利息收入方面，與第四季度相比，我們預計年化百分比將持平至較低的個位數下降，這主要是由於 BOLI 收入的減少和季節性保理業務的下降被我們財富和支付業務的持續增長所部分抵消。就 2023 年的完整指導而言，我們預計增長率將持平至較低的個位數百分比。雖然我們預計全年淨經營租賃收入將實現中高個位數增長，但我們確實預計，由於 22 年第四季度維護費用較低，第一季度將出現小幅季度下滑。我們預計，由於有機增長，我們的財富和支付業務將繼續保持增長勢頭，我們認為這將被服務費用下降、BOLI 收入減少以及工廠佣金下降的全年影響所抵消消費需求放緩。不考慮 NSF-OD 變化和 BOLI 減少的全年影響，我們預計非利息收入將實現接近中個位數的百分比增長。

Moving to noninterest expense. We expect mid-single-digit annualized growth in the first quarter. We expect a slight increase in our efficiency ratio during the quarter primarily due to seasonal employ benefit increases.

轉向非利息費用。我們預計第一季度的年化增長率為中個位數。我們預計本季度我們的效率比將略有增加，這主要是由於季節性就業福利的增加。

Looking forward, we expect to continue to feel the pressures of inflation, especially as it relates to wages, professional services and contract costs. Despite this, we feel confident in our ability to maintain our efficiency ratio in the later mid-50s in the coming quarters as we remove an estimated $50 million out of our cost base, helping to neutralize natural noninterest expense growth. We expect the remaining cost saves to be stacked towards the back end of 2023 and will have a more pronounced impact on 2024. All said, we expect mid-single-digit percentage growth in adjusted noninterest expense in 2023. The expense growth will be led by inflationary factors and salaries and wages, the increasing depreciation impact from the closeout of many strategic and optimization projects, higher marketing costs for the direct bank, the impact of the industry-wide increase in FDIC assessment rates and higher marketing costs in the direct bank, all partially being offset by cost sales. Without the change in FDIC expense, the impact of the direct bank increase in marketing expense, and we would expect expense growth to be in the low single digit percentage range in 2023.

展望未來，我們預計將繼續感受到通貨膨脹的壓力，尤其是與工資、專業服務和合同成本有關的壓力。儘管如此，我們對在未來幾個季度 50 年代後期保持效率比的能力充滿信心，因為我們從成本基礎中移除了大約 5000 萬美元，有助於抵消自然非利息費用的增長。我們預計剩餘的成本節省將累積到 2023 年底，並將對 2024 年產生更明顯的影響。總而言之，我們預計 2023 年調整後的非利息支出將實現中個位數百分比增長。支出增長將引領受通貨膨脹因素和薪金和工資的影響，許多戰略和優化項目的關閉導致折舊影響增加，直接銀行的營銷成本增加，全行業 FDIC 評估率增加的影響以及直接銀行的營銷成本增加，所有部分都被成本銷售所抵消。如果 FDIC 費用沒有變化，直接銀行營銷費用增加的影響，我們預計 2023 年費用增長將處於較低的個位數百分比範圍內。

And finally, on the income taxes, we expect our corporate tax rate to be in the range of 24.5% to 25% for the first quarter and the full year '23, which is a slight increase over previous guidance due to the surrender of the BOLI policies. In closing, we are pleased with our fourth quarter and full year results in 2022. As Frank mentioned in his comments, we remain confident in our ability to grow profitably and deliver on our commitments. We are positioned to perform well in a broad range of economic scenarios, given our capital and liquidity positions, our talented associates, focused on our customers, our diverse business mix and strong risk management culture.

最後，在所得稅方面，我們預計第一季度和 23 年全年的公司稅率將在 24.5% 至 25% 的範圍內，這比之前的指導略有增加，因為放棄了博利政策。最後，我們對 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績感到滿意。正如弗蘭克在評論中提到的那樣，我們對我們實現盈利增長和兌現承諾的能力充滿信心。鑑於我們的資本和流動性狀況、我們才華橫溢的員工、專注於我們的客戶、我們多樣化的業務組合和強大的風險管理文化，我們有能力在廣泛的經濟情景中表現良好。

With that, I will turn it over to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of the call.

有了這個，我將把它交給接線員，以獲得電話問答部分的說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question today comes from Brady Gailey from KBW.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brady Gailey。

So I wanted to start with the increase in the nonperforming loans. Can you just give us a little more color? Was that just 1 or 2 loans? Or was that a lot of loans? Or was that legacy First Citizens or legacy CIT? And can you tell us what the total size of your office CRE loan portfolio is at the end of the year?

所以我想從不良貸款的增加開始。你能給我們多一點顏色嗎？那隻是 1 或 2 筆貸款嗎？還是那是很多貸款？或者是遺留的第一公民或遺留的 CIT？你能告訴我們年底你辦公室 CRE 貸款組合的總規模是多少嗎？

The -- it was concentrated in large loans. I'm going to let Marisa give a little color on all that. Marisa, are you on the line?

- 它集中在大額貸款中。我要讓 Marisa 給這一切一點顏色。瑪麗莎，你在線嗎？

I am. Yes, the increase in nonaccruals was specifically a handful -- less than a handful of names, so a couple of large names. Commercial banks, legacy CIT real estate portfolio, Class B offer to drill it down as close as I can. The overall office portfolio in owner occupied or investor commercial real estate is about $2.5 billion, $2.6 billion. It's equally split between the commercial bank and the general bank. The general bank is not seeing any deterioration in that office portfolio. It's a very granular portfolio, much more community-based and the few larger loans that are in the general bank typically have a very strong investment-grade credit tenant. In the -- so the office portfolio in commercial is about $1.3 billion. It's centered in repositioned bridge that means it's a relatively short tenure, and it is in Class B office. It's broad-based in terms of geographies, and we -- obviously, as things move into nonaccrual, the credit and special assets team evaluate those for impairments. And we feel comfortable that we've done our job in terms of determining where we need specific reserves, but it is, obviously, as Craig mentioned, a portfolio that we're watching closely. We are not in that business originating new offers.

我是。是的，非應計項目的增加特別是少數——少於少數幾個名字，所以有幾個大名字。商業銀行、遺留 CIT 房地產投資組合、B 類提供盡可能深入地挖掘它。業主自用或投資者商業房地產的整體辦公組合約為 25 億美元、26 億美元。它在商業銀行和一般銀行之間平分秋色。一般銀行沒有看到該辦公室投資組合有任何惡化。這是一個非常細化的投資組合，更加以社區為基礎，一般銀行中的少數大額貸款通常擁有非常強大的投資級信貸租戶。在 - 所以商業辦公室投資組合約為 13 億美元。它以重新定位的橋樑為中心，這意味著它的任期相對較短，並且位於 B 級辦公室。它在地域方面具有廣泛的基礎，而且我們 - 顯然，隨著事情進入非應計項目，信貸和特殊資產團隊會評估這些減值情況。我們很高興我們已經完成了我們在確定我們需要特定儲備的地方的工作，但顯然，正如克雷格提到的那樣，這是我們正在密切關注的投資組合。我們不從事發起新報價的業務。

Okay. All right. That's very helpful. And just to be clear, the $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion, that's the total office crew and does the commercial bank and the general bank?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。需要明確的是，25 億美元到 26 億美元，這是辦公室工作人員的總數，商業銀行和一般銀行呢？

That's right. Yes, that's correct. That even leads to it. And as I said, the $1.3 billion is the commercial bank portfolio that has the Class B office that we've been referring to.

這是正確的。對，那是正確的。這甚至會導致它。正如我所說，這 13 億美元是商業銀行投資組合，其中包含我們一直提到的 B 級辦公室。

Okay. All right. And then just a question on guidance. I know last quarter, you guys gave some specific EPS guidance for the next quarter and the next year, specifically I know 2023 looks guided to a $95 to $100 a share. That was not in the slide deck this time. Is that still the expectation for '23 earnings to be $95 to $100 per share? Or is it hard to tell just given the uncertainty of what the provision line could be this year?

好的。好的。然後只是關於指導的問題。我知道上個季度，你們為下一季度和明年給出了一些具體的每股收益指導，具體來說，我知道 2023 年的每股盈利指導看起來是 95 到 100 美元。這一次不在幻燈片中。這仍然是對 23 年每股收益 95 至 100 美元的預期嗎？還是僅考慮到今年撥備線的不確定性就很難判斷？

Yes. Brady, I would say, that range is still relevant, but we would gear guide towards the lower end of that range.

是的。布雷迪，我想說，這個範圍仍然是相關的，但我們會把指南調整到該範圍的低端。

Okay. And then finally for me, is there any scenario where the share buyback could begin before the back half of this year? I mean you guys are making good money. You clearly have excess capital. Like is there any scenario that the buyback could come earlier than the back half of '23?

好的。最後對我來說，有沒有可能在今年下半年之前開始股票回購的情況？我的意思是你們賺了很多錢。你顯然有多餘的資本。是否有任何情況表明回購可能會早於 23 年下半年？

They not really -- our capital planning process is ongoing, but really comes to a head in the first quarter. So we will align the share repurchase with those -- that capital plan, and our capital actions and our submission to our regulators of that plan. So it's really that timing dictates the ultimate timing of the share repurchase plan. So we do not anticipate starting that prior to the second half of the year.

他們不是真的 - 我們的資本規劃過程正在進行中，但真正在第一季度達到了頂峰。因此，我們將使股票回購與資本計劃、我們的資本行動以及我們向監管機構提交的該計劃的提交保持一致。因此，時間確實決定了股票回購計劃的最終時間。因此，我們預計不會在今年下半年之前開始。

We now turn to Stephen Scouten from Piper Sandler.

我們現在轉向 Piper Sandler 的 Stephen Scouten。

Maybe just following up on that share repurchase question and kind of the procedural structure of that. Have there been any changes to who you would need to request from a regulatory perspective that repurchase authorization from your request last year? Would you foresee any incremental difficulty given any -- given the size changes in any regulatory changes?

也許只是跟進那個股票回購問題和那種程序結構。從監管的角度來看，您需要向誰申請從去年的申請中重新購買授權，是否有任何變化？鑑於任何監管變化的規模變化，您是否預見到任何增加的困難？

Stephen, we're not expecting any changes in the approval or on the process that we'll go through. And we're also assessing it the same way that we did last year. So no changes at all in any of that.

斯蒂芬，我們不希望批准或我們將要經歷的流程發生任何變化。我們也在以與去年相同的方式對其進行評估。因此，所有這些都沒有任何變化。

Okay. And when will be your first CCAR submission?

好的。什麼時候提交您的第一份 CCAR？

Stephen, this is Tom Eklund. We believe our full -- we'll be subject to the capital plan rule starting in 2024, and we believe our first CCAR submission being a Category 4 bank will be in 2026, unless we are asked to participate sooner than that. It's obviously at the discussion of the regulatory bodies.

斯蒂芬，這是湯姆·埃克倫德。我們相信我們的全部 - 我們將從 2024 年開始遵守資本計劃規則，我們相信我們的第一個 CCAR 提交是第 4 類銀行將在 2026 年，除非我們被要求更早參與。這顯然是在監管機構的討論中。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then I guess, as I'm thinking about your net interest margin guidance, a little surprised, but encouraged to hear you think you can move that potentially higher, especially in the second quarter. It sounds like, Craig, from your comments that maybe that's due to your back book of loans repricing faster than the back book of deposits. Is that kind of the main phenomenon that would lead that higher?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後我想，當我在考慮你的淨息差指導時，有點驚訝，但很高興聽到你認為你可以提高它的潛力，尤其是在第二季度。聽起來，克雷格，從你的評論來看，這可能是因為你的貸款儲備簿比存款儲備簿重新定價更快。這種主要現象會導致更高嗎？

That is absolutely correct, but I would say, modestly higher.

這是絕對正確的，但我會說，稍微高一點。

Okay. Great. And then can you give us an idea of what you're seeing from a spread perspective today in terms of maybe new loan yields and incremental deposit cost, and how that compares to your current margins?

好的。偉大的。然後你能告訴我們你今天從新貸款收益率和增量存款成本方面從利差角度看到了什麼，以及這與你目前的利潤率相比如何？

Right now, if you just look at new loan yields are coming on, our new loans are coming on the books between 5.5% and 6%. The marginal cost of our deposits when you consider the various deposits that we have out there, we're saving money markets as in the [350] range. So spreads 350 to [4]. So spreads are around 200 basis points. Tom, do you have anything right to add to that?

現在，如果你只看新貸款的收益率，我們的新貸款在賬面上的收益率在 5.5% 到 6% 之間。當你考慮我們在那裡的各種存款時，我們存款的邊際成本，我們正在將貨幣市場保存在 [350] 範圍內。所以傳播 350 到 [4]。因此利差約為 200 個基點。湯姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think that's accurate. I mean, obviously, rates shift as the market shifts and we pay close attention to both Fed hikes and also sort of how the curve behaves.

我認為這是準確的。我的意思是，很明顯，利率隨著市場的變化而變化，我們密切關注美聯儲的加息以及曲線的表現。

But then that dynamic, the inversion of the yield curve is a challenge -- remains a challenge.

但是，這種動態，即收益率曲線的倒掛是一個挑戰——仍然是一個挑戰。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Yes, definitely. Okay. And maybe just one last thing for me is just on the noninterest-bearing deposit growth. I know you said, you think you could grow that mid-single digits as well. Anything to note there in particular in terms of customer acquisition plans or otherwise that would lead to that? Because I think that industry-wide where we've been seeing the most pressure, especially this quarter, is that maybe negative mix shift away from the noninterest-bearing deposits?

當然是。好的。也許對我來說最後一件事就是無息存款增長。我知道你說過，你認為你也可以增長到中個位數。有什麼特別需要注意的客戶獲取計劃或其他方面的注意事項嗎？因為我認為在全行業範圍內我們看到壓力最大的地方，尤其是本季度，是否可能從無息存款中轉移了負面組合？

Yes. I think if you look at just mix of deposits, we are forecasting noninterest-bearing to remain consistent as a percentage of total deposits. And I would just anchor back to our go-to-market strategy, the no loan to alone strategy always has emphasized growing noninterest-bearing deposits, and we've been able to do that through various rate cycles. We really acknowledge that quantitative tightening and potential disintermediation could be headwinds there, but we feel like a 5% growth goal there is achievable and reasonable.

是的。我認為，如果你只看存款的組合，我們預測無息存款佔總存款的百分比將保持一致。我只想回到我們的上市戰略，不向單獨貸款的戰略一直強調增加無息存款，我們已經能夠通過各種利率週期做到這一點。我們確實承認量化緊縮和潛在的去中介化可能會成為不利因素，但我們認為 5% 的增長目標是可以實現且合理的。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We'll now turn to Brian Foran from Autonomous.

我們現在將轉向 Autonomous 的 Brian Foran。

Just going back to the 95 to 100 of EPS and maybe focusing more on the low end of the range. I should be able to do the math, but I mean, is that just because of the nudges on the fee expense and tax rate? Or is that also because of more uncertainty or higher potential provisions that you're contemplating?

回到 95 到 100 的每股收益，也許更多地關注範圍的低端。我應該可以算算，但我的意思是，這僅僅是因為費用支出和稅率的推動嗎？還是因為您正在考慮更多的不確定性或更高的潛在條款？

Look, if we just comparing the previous guidance that we gave in the third quarter to the current guidance, we have increased our deposit growth from low to mid-single digits to mid-single digits growth. We have changed our noninterest income from low single-digit growth to flat to low single-digit growth. We have increased our noninterest expense guidance from low to mid-single to mid-single-digit growth. So with all that, when you total that up to run through a model, it just puts us at the lower -- it leaves us within that range of 95 to 100 to put this on the lower end, and obviously, does not incorporate share repurchases in the second half of the year. So I say all that, there's a lot of moving part, okay?

看，如果我們只是將我們在第三季度給出的先前指導與當前指導進行比較，我們已經將存款增長從低到中個位數增加到中個位數增長。我們已將非利息收入從低個位數增長變為持平至低個位數增長。我們已將我們的非利息支出指引從低到中個位數增長提高到中個位數增長。因此，儘管如此，當你總計運行一個模型時，它只是把我們放在較低的位置——它讓我們處於 95 到 100 的範圍內，把它放在較低端，顯然，不包含份額下半年回購。所以我說了這麼多，有很多活動的部分，好嗎？

That's very helpful. And then the Fed cuts you were incorporating, do those really affect NII at all? Or do they happen like in December of '23 in the model? And so they're not really -- I guess, do the Fed -- the 50 basis points of Fed cuts haven't impacted the third and fourth quarter NII?

這很有幫助。然後你納入的美聯儲削減，這些真的會影響 NII 嗎？或者它們是否像模型中的 23 年 12 月那樣發生？所以他們不是真的——我想，美聯儲——美聯儲降息 50 個基點沒有影響第三和第四季度的 NII？

Stephen, this is Elliot Howard. I would say one of the cuts curve kind of back in the third quarter, so that has a marginal impact, but the last one is certainly at the very end of the year, so very minimal impact on '23 for that one.

斯蒂芬，這是埃利奧特霍華德。我想說的是，其中一條削減曲線在第三季度有所回落，因此影響很小，但最後一次肯定是在今年年底，所以對那個 23 年的影響非常小。

Our next question comes from Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

我們的下一個問題來自 Janney Montgomery Scott 的 Christopher Marinac。

I wanted to ask about the deposit beta and kind of the road map to 25%. How much of that also spills over into kind of some business account activity beyond what you're doing with the CIT Bank?

我想問一下存款貝塔和 25% 的路線圖。除了你在 CIT 銀行所做的事情之外，其中有多少還會溢出到一些商業賬戶活動中？

Sorry, Were you referring to business -- commercial business or commercial account activity there? I didn't quite catch the question.

抱歉，您指的是那裡的業務——商業業務或商業帳戶活動嗎？我不太明白這個問題。

Yes. It's business account activity as well as just the kind of interplay between deposit raising at the -- within your online channel as discussed earlier versus kind of business opportunities within some of your core business accounts.

是的。這是商業賬戶活動，以及前面討論的在線渠道內的存款籌集與一些核心商業賬戶內的商業機會之間的相互作用。

Yes. I mean the majority of the beta as Craig covered sort of the beta categories, where we see the highest beta is obviously in the direct channel. It's a lower fixed cost channel, but higher variable for higher interest expense there. So that is really sort of the main driver from -- for the overall beta for us.

是的。我的意思是 Craig 涵蓋的大部分 beta 都屬於 beta 類別，我們看到最高 beta 顯然是在直接渠道中。這是一個較低的固定成本渠道，但由於那裡的利息支出較高而具有較高的可變性。所以這真的是我們整體測試版的主要驅動力。

And that represents 18% of our deposit base. If you look at the branch network, we did have a mix of lower beta in moderate beta, that's 71% of deposits. So those 2 channels around 90%. So the branch network really smooth that data out, lowers it in total.

這占我們存款基礎的 18%。如果你看看分支網絡，我們確實有較低的 beta 和中等 beta 的組合，即存款的 71%。所以這 2 個渠道大約 90%。因此，分支網絡確實平滑了數據，總體上降低了數據。

Yes. I'd say, overall, we're experiencing beta similar to historical experience out of the branch network. So it's really sort of the online and those deposit gathering channels that are guiding the data.

是的。我想說，總的來說，我們正在經歷與分支網絡之外的歷史經歷相似的測試版。所以它真的有點像在線和那些引導數據的存款收集渠道。

So that 18%, Craig, would that stay constant? Or would that change over time?

那麼 18%，克雷格，會保持不變嗎？還是會隨著時間的推移而改變？

You're talking about 92% of the...

你說的是 92% 的...

I think 18% of the deposit.

我認為是押金的18%。

18%.

18%。

I think.

我認為。

Yes, I think it's -- but not significantly. If you look at sort of what sort of where we're projecting things to shake out, I think that the direct bank might increase marginally maybe by a percentage point or 2, but we anticipate that the branch network is going to be close level going forward.

是的，我認為是——但並不顯著。如果你看一下我們計劃在什麼樣的地方進行調整，我認為直接銀行可能會略微增加一個或 2 個百分點，但我們預計分支網絡將接近水平向前。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just on the CET1 ratio over time, what would be the lower bound that you're comfortable with? And is that at all changing from what you may have thought a few quarters ago?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後就隨時間變化的 CET1 比率而言，您滿意的下限是多少？這與您幾個季度前的想法有什麼不同嗎？

No. Our low end of CET1 is 9% and that's consistent with prior quarter, and we don't anticipate a change there.

不。我們的 CET1 低端是 9%，這與上一季度一致，我們預計那裡不會發生變化。

We have a follow-up question from Brian Foran at Autonomous.

我們有來自 Autonomous 的 Brian Foran 的後續問題。

Just 2 quick ones. I guess maybe one has a couple of parts, but on capital, just following up on that. So absent the buyback, what you would accrete kind of 30 to 40 bps of CET1 quarter, does that sound about right?

只有 2 個快速的。我想也許一個有幾個部分，但在資本上，只是跟進。因此，如果沒有回購，你會在 CET1 季度增加 30 到 40 個基點，這聽起來對嗎？

You are close. Yes, that's very close.

你很接近。是的，那非常接近。

And then you said, the low end is 9. Is it 9 to 10%? Is the full through the cycle range? Or what's the range of capital you just remind me what the capital target is?

然後你說，低端是9。是9到10%嗎？是否完全通過循環範圍？或者你剛剛提醒我資本目標是什麼的資本範圍是多少？

9 to 10 is the range for CET1.

CET1 的範圍是 9 到 10。

Okay. And then I just want to come back to the front book, back book new loan pricing. So you're saying it's 5.5 to 6 in -- for new production. And was the message that's good because the existing portfolio yields 5? Or was the message that, less good because it's 200 basis points above the marginal cost of funds? Or I just didn't know which to lean on in terms of the takeaway.

好的。然後我只想回到前台，重新預訂新的貸款定價。所以你說它是 5.5 到 6 英寸——用於新產品。消息是好的，因為現有的投資組合收益率為 5？還是因為它比資金的邊際成本高出 200 個基點，所以信息不太好？或者我只是不知道在外賣方面該依靠哪個。

Yes. Brian, this is Elliot Howard. I think we would view it as positive. We look at 5.5% to 6% pricing. Specifically in the branch network, we're a lot more and more into fixed. Current yield in our portfolio is a little less than 4%. So we've got a pretty favorable gap when we look at that, some of the fixed repricing that will kind of be a win that are back in the second half of 2023.

是的。布賴恩，這是埃利奧特霍華德。我想我們會認為這是積極的。我們考慮 5.5% 到 6% 的定價。特別是在分支網絡中，我們越來越多地固定。我們投資組合的當前收益率略低於 4%。因此，當我們看到這一點時，我們有一個非常有利的差距，一些固定的重新定價將在 2023 年下半年回歸。

So that's just for fixed rate piece of the loan portfolio.

所以這只是貸款組合的固定利率部分。

That's right, and that's where the pricing differential. I mean the variable pretty much prices to the store spread moves up and down with the variable rate index.

沒錯，這就是定價差異的地方。我的意思是商店價差的可變價格隨著可變利率指數上下波動。

And just remind me, the fixed rate piece is half of the book or a little bit more than half of the book.

請提醒我，固定費率部分是書的一半或書的一半多一點。

It's 55% fixed, 45% variable.

它是 55% 固定的，45% 可變的。

Okay. So relative to like a lot of other banks, I guess every bank has this dynamic, but it's a bigger piece of your loan book. And so just in terms of the puts and takes into next year, it has a little bit more of a tailwind for you because you got a little bit less of the immediate Fed funds benefit in '22 than a typical regional bank. But next year, you get a little bit more of the trailing front book, back book kind of ratcheting up than the average bank would.

好的。因此，相對於許多其他銀行，我想每家銀行都有這種動態，但它在你的貸款賬簿中所佔比例更大。因此，就看跌期權和明年的收益而言，它對你來說有點順風，因為你在 22 年獲得的直接聯邦基金收益比典型的地區性銀行要少一些。但明年，你會得到比一般銀行多一點的尾隨前書和後書。

Well said.

說得好。

Yes. I realize that wasn't even a question, I was just like making statements. Okay. That's helpful because I was thinking you were comparing it to the entire loan book and the marginal cost. So that's helpful. That clears it up.

是的。我意識到這甚至不是一個問題，我只是在做陳述。好的。這很有幫助，因為我認為您是在將其與整個貸款簿和邊際成本進行比較。所以這很有幫助。這清除了它。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to our host for any closing remarks.

我現在不顯示任何進一步的問題。我想將電話轉回給我們的主持人以獲取任何結束語。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for participating in our call today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have any further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. I hope everyone have a great rest of your day.

謝謝，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。如果您有任何其他問題或需要更多信息，請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。我希望每個人都度過愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。