First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens Bancshares Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，並歡迎參加 First Citizens Bancshares 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想介紹一下本次電話會議的主持人，投資者關係高級副總裁 Deanna Hart 女士。你可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. Our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix, will provide fourth quarter business and financial updates today.

大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。我們的董事長兼執行長 Frank Holding；財務長克雷格·尼克斯 (Craig Nix) 今天將提供第四季度的業務和財務更新。

During the call, we will reference our investor presentation, which you can find on our website. Our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause our results to differ materially from expectations. We assume no obligation to update such statements. These risks are outlined for you on Page 3.

在電話會議期間，我們將參考我們的投資者簡報，您可以在我們的網站上找到該簡報。我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致我們的結果與預期有重大差異。我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。第 3 頁為您概述了這些風險。

We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in Section 5 of the presentation.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。這些措施與最直接可比較的 GAAP 措施的調整可以在簡報的第 5 節中找到。

Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third parties. I will now turn it over to Frank.

最後，First Citizens 不負責、不編輯或保證第三方提供的收入記錄的準確性。我現在將把它交給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to focus my comments today on our fourth quarter accomplishments and our 2024 strategic priorities before turning it over to Craig to cover our fourth quarter financial results and outlook for 2024.

謝謝你，迪安娜，大家早安。我今天的評論重點是我們第四季的成就和 2024 年的策略重點，然後交給 Craig 介紹我們第四季的財務表現和 2024 年的展望。

Let's start on Page 5. The fourth quarter capped off another exciting and successful year at First Citizens. We kicked off the year, 1 year into our successful merger with CIT and rang out the year combined with SVB, all as we celebrated our 125th year anniversary. I'm really proud of what we accomplished in 2023 and believe we have tremendous opportunity ahead of us. There is an undeniable sense of momentum at First Citizens and our ambition is to serve our clients in ways never imagined 125 years ago. And we're well positioned for the future, thanks to continued focus on our clients and customers and our solid financial results.

讓我們從第 5 頁開始。第四季為 First Citizens 又一個激動人心且成功的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。我們拉開了與 CIT 成功合併的一年，並敲響了與 SVB 合併的一年，同時慶祝了我們的 125 週年紀念日。我對我們在 2023 年的成就感到非常自豪，並相信我們面前有巨大的機會。 First Citizens 有一種不可否認的動力，我們的目標是以 125 年前從未想像過的方式為客戶提供服務。由於我們對客戶和顧客的持續關注以及我們穩健的財務業績，我們為未來做好了充分的準備。

We delivered another quarter of solid financial results, driven by a strong net interest margin and adjusted efficiency ratio of 48%. We're pleased that both our general and commercial bank segments grew loans by double-digit percentage points in 2023. Due to strong deposit growth during the year, we improved our liquidity position significantly and ended the year with a strong capital position marked by a CET1 ratio of 13.36%.

在強勁的淨利差和 48% 的調整後效率的推動下，我們又一個季度實現了穩健的財務表現。我們很高興看到我們的普通銀行和商業銀行部門的貸款在2023 年都實現了兩位數百分點的增長。由於年內存款增長強勁，我們的流動性狀況得到了顯著改善，並以強勁的資本狀況結束了年底。CET1 比例為13.36%。

We recently announced 2 major additions to our team, which will help us to continue to successfully navigate the ever-changing landscape for large financial institutions.

我們最近宣布了團隊的兩項重大補充，這將幫助我們繼續成功應對大型金融機構不斷變化的格局。

First, David Leitch was appointed to the Board of Directors in January. David is a distinguished leader, executive and attorney and he brings extensive experience and valuable insight to our Board. He retired from Bank of America in 2022, where he served as Vice Chair from 2021, 2022, and its Global General Counsel from 2016 to 2021, and we're excited to have David join the Board.

首先，David Leitch 一月份被任命為董事會成員。 David 是一位傑出的領導者、高階主管和律師，他為我們的董事會帶來了豐富的經驗和寶貴的見解。他於 2022 年從美國銀行退休，並於 2021 年和 2022 年擔任美國銀行副主席，並於 2016 年至 2021 年擔任全球總法律顧問，我們很高興 David 加入董事會。

Second, we announced that Greg Smith will join our executive leadership team as the bank's Chief Information and Operations Officer. Greg joins our team from TD Bank Financial Group in Toronto, Canada, where he served as Head of Transformation and Corporate Operations. In this leadership role, he set the vision and built key capabilities to drive end-to-end transformational change. He was also responsible for managing corporate projects and technology platforms. In the CIOO role at First Citizens, he will be responsible for the strategic enablement of technology, operations, cyber and data functions across the enterprise. Greg's extensive background and depth of experience will make him well suited to take on these important responsibilities, and we're excited to have him on board.

其次，我們宣布格雷格史密斯將加入我們的執行領導團隊，擔任銀行的首席資訊和營運長。 Greg 加入我們團隊之前曾在加拿大多倫多道明銀行金融集團 (TD Bank Financial Group) 擔任轉型和企業營運主管。在這一領導角色中，他設定了願景並建立了關鍵能力來推動端到端的轉型變革。他也負責管理公司專案和技術平台。在 First Citizens 擔任資訊長 (CIOO) 期間，他將負責整個企業的技術、營運、網路和資料功能的策略支援。格雷格廣泛的背景和豐富的經驗將使他非常適合承擔這些重要職責，我們很高興他能加入。

Moving to Page 6. We remain intently focused on our core strategies, and I'll highlight a few of them for 2024. First, we remain focused on our clients and customers. Our combinations with CIT and SVB introduced us to new strategic markets that allow us to deliver expanded products and solutions across our diversified lines of business. We continue to support SVB's innovation economy clients and are focused on capturing synergies with the commercial businesses we acquired from CIT.

轉到第 6 頁。我們仍然專注於我們的核心策略，我將重點介紹其中的一些 2024 年策略。首先，我們仍然專注於我們的客戶和消費者。我們與 CIT 和 SVB 的合併為我們帶來了新的策略市場，使我們能夠在多元化的業務領域提供擴展的產品和解決方案。我們將繼續支持 SVB 的創新經濟客戶，並致力於與我們從 CIT 收購的商業業務產生協同效應。

In the General Bank, we have enhanced our deposit campaigns to continue to grow quality core deposits. As we noted last quarter, we continue to expand our wealth business across our geographic footprint and our expanding advisory and self-service options for our clients in that space. Developing our associates and adding talent to support growth remain important priorities. Our integration efforts are centered on ensuring that we retain our culture which emphasizes a relationship-based approach to banking, a client-centric customer -- client and customer-centric service delivery model, a long-term focus and strong risk management.

總行加強存款活動，並持續發展優質核心存款。正如我們上季度所指出的，我們繼續在我們的地理範圍內擴展我們的財富業務，並為該領域的客戶提供不斷擴大的諮詢和自助服務選項。發展我們的員工並增加人才以支持成長仍然是重要的優先事項。我們的整合工作的重點是確保我們保留我們的文化，這種文化強調基於關係的銀行業務方法、以客戶為中心的客戶——以客戶和客戶為中心的服務交付模式、長期關注和強有力的風險管理。

Operational efficiency is very important to us. In addition to disciplined expense management, we are managing our balance sheet to optimize our liquidity and capital positions to support continued profitable growth. Core deposit growth will be a major priority as we continue to increase deposits as a percentage of our total funding mix.

營運效率對我們來說非常重要。除了嚴格的費用管理外，我們還管理資產負債表，以優化我們的流動性和資本狀況，以支持持續的獲利成長。隨著我們繼續增加存款佔總融資組合的百分比，核心存款成長將成為首要任務。

We also continue to make regulatory readiness, a top strategic priority. We have made meaningful progress on our efforts thus far, but acknowledge we need to continue to refine and mature our processes to support the change in the company's size and complexity. We will be intently focused on these efforts in 2024.

我們也繼續將監管準備作為首要策略重點。到目前為止，我們的努力已經取得了有意義的進展，但我們承認我們需要繼續改進和成熟我們的流程，以支持公司規模和複雜性的變化。 2024 年我們將重點放在這些工作上。

Now let's look at Page 7. We continue to make good progress on SVB's integration. Our efforts there have been extremely important, helping us retain clients, stabilize deposit balances and develop strategic priorities for the combined organization.

現在讓我們來看看第 7 頁。我們在 SVB 整合方面繼續取得良好進展。我們在那裡所做的努力極為重要，幫助我們留住客戶、穩定存款餘額並為合併後的組織制定策略重點。

As we discussed on the last call, we developed an integration road map, and we expect the majority of those efforts to be completed in 2024. Our goal remains to support the acquired lines of business, maintain their unique capabilities, all while improving efficiency and risk management, positioning us for future growth. We acknowledge the headwinds in the innovation economy as well as the increased competition in the space. However, we remain encouraged by the strength and value the SVB franchise brings to its client base and its unwavering commitment to providing a relationship-focused service that is unmatched in the innovation ecosystem.

正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，我們制定了整合路線圖，我們預計其中大部分工作將於2024 年完成。我們的目標仍然是支持收購的業務線，保持其獨特的能力，同時提高效率和風險管理，為我們未來的成長做好準備。我們承認創新經濟面臨的阻力以及該領域競爭的加劇。然而，我們仍然對 SVB 特許經營權為其客戶群帶來的實力和價值及其對提供創新生態系統中無與倫比的以關係為中心的服務的堅定承諾感到鼓舞。

To conclude, I am very pleased with our performance in 2023 and excited about growth opportunities as we enter 2024. Despite industry adversity in 2023, we were able to protect and grow customer relationships, stabilize deposits at SVB, grow core deposits and loans in our general and commercial bank segments and build upon our strong capital and liquidity positions.

總而言之，我對我們2023 年的業績感到非常滿意，並對進入2024 年時的成長機會感到興奮。儘管2023 年行業逆境，我們仍能夠保護和發展客戶關係，穩定SVB 存款，增加我們的核心存款和貸款。普通銀行和商業銀行部門，並以我們強大的資本和流動性狀況為基礎。

I'd like to thank all of our associates for making 2023 a successful -- and positioning the bank for a successful future. With that, I'll turn it over to Craig Nix. Craig?

我要感謝我們所有的員工，感謝他們讓 2023 年取得了成功，並為銀行奠定了成功的未來。有了這個，我會把它交給克雷格·尼克斯。克雷格？

Thank you, Frank, and thank you all of you for joining us today. I'm going to anchor my comments regarding our fourth quarter financial results to the takeaways outlined on Page 9. Pages 10 through 29 provide more detail supporting the results for your reference.

謝謝弗蘭克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我將把我對第四季度財務業績的評論與第 9 頁概述的要點結合起來。第 10 頁到第 29 頁提供了更多支持結果的詳細信息，供您參考。

Our return metrics remain solid and in line with our expectations. ROE and ROA adjusted for notable items for 13.53% and 1.28%, respectively. Compared to the third quarter, these metrics were impacted by an expected 3.9% sequential decline in net interest income driven by a reduction in accretion income and higher deposit costs. These impacts were partially offset by higher loan and investment portfolio yields, which benefited from maturity and replacement of lower-yielding assets during the quarter. These higher yields offset by higher deposit costs drove net interest income ex accretion to be essentially flat with the sequential quarter.

我們的回報指標仍然穩定並符合我們的預期。顯著項目調整後的 ROE 和 ROA 分別為 13.53% 和 1.28%。與第三季相比，這些指標受到淨利息收入預期環比下降 3.9% 的影響，這是由於增值收入減少和存款成本上升所致。這些影響被較高的貸款和投資組合收益率所部分抵消，這得益於本季低收益資產的到期和替換。較高的收益率被較高的存款成本所抵消，導致淨利息收入（除增值）與上一季基本持平。

NIM contracted by 21 basis points during the quarter to 3.86% driven primarily by the same factors affecting the decline in net interest income I just discussed. Ex accretion, NIM declined by 5 basis points to 3.46%. Adjusted noninterest income was down modestly by 3% sequentially and majority of the decrease related to a decline in the fair value of customer derivative positions as a result of lower interest rates. Additionally, as we previously guided, our rail business experienced a decline in net rental income due to higher maintenance expenses.

本季淨利息收入收縮 21 個基點至 3.86%，這主要是由於影響我剛才討論的淨利息收入下降的相同因素所致。扣除增值後，淨利差下降 5 個基點至 3.46%。調整後的非利息收入環比小幅下降 3%，其中大部分下降與利率下降導致客戶衍生性商品部位公允價值下降有關。此外，正如我們先前的指導，由於維護費用增加，我們的鐵路業務淨租金收入下降。

As a reminder, given strong utilization rates and positive repricing trends, we made the strategic decision to pull forward regulatory requalification programs in order to increase the number of available cars for leasing in 2024. These updates position us well to continue to provide our customers with the equipment they need. While we expect some normalization to historically high utilization levels in 2024, we believe that our well-diversified fleet positions us well for the future.

謹此提醒，鑑於強勁的利用率和積極的重新定價趨勢，我們做出了戰略決定，推進監管重新認證計劃，以便在 2024 年增加可供租賃的汽車數量。這些更新使我們能夠繼續為客戶提供他們需要的設備。雖然我們預計 2024 年利用率將達到歷史高位，但我們相信，我們多元化的機隊使我們在未來佔據有利地位。

A bright spot in the quarter was an increase in capital market fees as our capital markets business had its highest fee year on record as we were able to take advantage of market dislocation as many banks pull back. Adjusted noninterest expense was largely in line with expectations, increasing sequentially by less than 1%. We experienced expense growth during the quarter in consulting and project costs related to strategic investments we had delayed earlier in the year.

本季的一個亮點是資本市場費用的增加，因為我們的資本市場業務創下了有史以來最高的費用年度，因為我們能夠利用許多銀行撤資時的市場混亂。調整後的非利息支出基本上符合預期，較上季增幅不到 1%。本季我們在與今年稍早推遲的策略投資相關的諮詢和專案成本方面經歷了費用成長。

As we noted on the third quarter call, consulting and project costs were lower in the second and third quarters as we assessed and reprioritized areas of focus heading into 2024. In addition, fourth quarter expenses reflected our expanded CRA commitment as part of our integration efforts to assist communities in Northern California and Eastern Massachusetts. These increases were almost completely offset by lower FDIC insurance and personnel expenses. We remain very cognizant of the importance of expense discipline as we head into 2024, given headwinds to net interest income facing us and many in the industry.

正如我們在第三季度電話會議上指出的那樣，隨著我們對進入2024 年的重點領域進行評估和重新確定優先順序，第二和第三季度的諮詢和項目成本較低。此外，第四季度的支出反映了我們在整合工作中擴大了CRA 承諾協助北加州和馬薩諸塞州東部的社區。這些增長幾乎完全被 FDIC 保險和人員費用的下降所抵消。進入 2024 年，考慮到我們和業內許多人面臨的淨利息收入不利因素，我們仍然非常認識到支出紀律的重要性。

Credit continues to normalize and trade with our expectations for the quarter with net charge-offs coming in at the lower end of our guidance range of 50 to 60 basis points. Net charge-offs were $177 million during the quarter, representing a ratio of 0.53% of average loans, basically flat compared to the third quarter. Losses were largely in the same portfolio where we experienced charge-offs in previous quarters.

信貸持續正常化，符合我們對本季的預期，淨沖銷處於我們指導範圍下限的 50 至 60 個基點。本季淨沖銷額為 1.77 億美元，佔平均貸款的 0.53%，與第三季基本持平。損失主要發生在我們前幾季經歷過沖銷的同一投資組合。

Within the Commercial Bank, net charge-offs were concentrated in the general office and small ticket equipment leasing portfolios. We also experienced an idiosyncratic loss in the energy portfolio [in the quarter] that we believe is not indicative of [broader terms] in the portfolio. While we continue to seek strength in our general office portfolio in the Commercial Bank due to continued inflationary pressure, elevated interest rates and market dislocation, we have limited exposure which totaled $1.2 billion or roughly 1% of loans at the end of the fourth quarter.

在商業銀行內部，淨沖銷集中在普通辦公室和小額設備租賃組合中。我們也經歷了能源投資組合[本季]的特殊損失，我們認為這並不表明投資組合中[更廣泛的術語]。儘管由於持續的通膨壓力、利率上升和市場混亂，我們繼續尋求商業銀行綜合辦公室投資組合的優勢，但我們的風險敞口有限，截至第四季度末總計 12 億美元，約佔貸款的 1%。

As a reminder, this portfolio is concentrated in Class B repositioned bridge loans and is where we have seen deterioration in pass-throughs, criticized assets and charge-offs. General office CRE continues to be carefully monitored, and we are carrying an ACL on these loans of 9.37% compared to 4.77% on the overall general office portfolio.

提醒一下，該投資組合主要集中在 B 類重新定位的過橋貸款中，我們看到轉嫁、批評資產和沖銷情況惡化。綜合辦公室 CRE 持續受到仔細監控，我們對這些貸款的 ACL 為 9.37%，而整體綜合辦公室投資組合的 ACL 為 4.77%。

Net charge-offs in the SVB segment remained elevated due to continued stress in the investor dependent portfolio, but did decline sequentially by $35 million. At quarter end, this portfolio totaled $4.3 billion or approximately 3% of total loans with the highest risk category, early-stage companies totaling $1.4 billion or just over 1% of total loans.

由於依賴投資者的投資組合持續面臨壓力，SVB 部門的淨沖銷仍然較高，但環比下降了 3,500 萬美元。截至季末，該投資組合總額為 43 億美元，約佔最高風險類別貸款總額的 3%，早期公司總額為 14 億美元，略高於總貸款的 1%。

The allowance for credit losses increased sequentially by 5 basis points to 1.31% due to some adverse credit migration in our commercial portfolio and higher specific reserves on loans individually reviewed. Under the current macroeconomic backdrop, we continually look for indicators of portfolio stress by reviewing delinquency trends and grading migration by industry and/or geography to identify areas of concern.

由於我們的商業投資組合中存在一些不利的信貸遷移以及單獨審核的貸款特定準備金較高，信貸損失準備金比上一季度增加了 5 個基點，達到 1.31%。在當前的宏觀經濟背景下，我們透過審查拖欠趨勢並按行業和/或地理位置對移民進行分級來不斷尋找投資組合壓力指標，以確定值得關注的領域。

While our credit quality remains within our risk appetite, we [anticipate] elevated net charge-offs in the innovation, general office and equipment finance portfolios this year. We have taken proactive steps to help limit losses, and we feel that we are properly balancing our growth and underwriting strategy, emphasizing opportunities to build upon our expertise and provide an appropriate risk-adjusted return.

雖然我們的信貸品質仍在我們的風險偏好範圍內，但我們預計今年創新、一般辦公室和設備融資投資組合的淨沖銷將會增加。我們已採取積極措施來幫助限制損失，我們認為我們正在適當平衡我們的成長和承保策略，強調利用我們的專業知識並提供適當的風險調整回報的機會。

Now moving to the balance sheet. Loans were up $100 million over the third quarter. The General and Commercial Bank segment grew loans by $1.3 billion and $716 million respectively, while the SVB segment experienced a decline of just under $2 billion.

現在轉向資產負債表。第三季貸款增加了 1 億美元。普通銀行和商業銀行部門的貸款分別增加了 13 億美元和 7.16 億美元，而 SVB 部門則減少了近 20 億美元。

In the General Bank, growth was concentrated in small business and commercial loans in our branch network as we continue to grow our customer base and deepen relationships. We are focused on executing our strategy of growing our customer base and supporting existing clients where we have a relationship and a proven history. We believe this relationship banking approach will continue to serve us well.

在總銀行，隨著我們不斷擴大客戶群並加深關係，成長主要集中在分行網路的小型企業和商業貸款。我們專注於執行擴大客戶群的策略，並為我們擁有合作關係和悠久歷史的現有客戶提供支援。我們相信這種關係銀行業務方法將繼續為我們提供良好服務。

In the Commercial Bank, growth was driven by strong production in our industry verticals and middle market banking. Within the industry verticals, growth was concentrated in TMT, Healthcare and energy. Growth in our TMT vertical continues to be driven by strong demand for new data centers. Our energy vertical is benefiting from the power infrastructure and renewable energy markets.

在商業銀行，成長是由垂直產業和中間市場銀行業務的強勁生產所推動的。在垂直產業中，成長集中在TMT、醫療保健和能源領域。對新資料中心的強勁需求持續推動我們 TMT 垂直領域的成長。我們的能源垂直領域受惠於電力基礎設施和再生能源市場。

As for middle market, the team continued its expansion strategy in 2023, adding bankers in Boston, New York, Santa Monica, Atlanta and Dallas, contributing to increased loan production during the year.

中端市場方面，團隊在2023年繼續實施擴張策略，在波士頓、紐約、聖莫尼卡、亞特蘭大和達拉斯增加了銀行家，為年內貸款產量的增加做出了貢獻。

The reduction in SVB segment loans was driven primarily by a decline in global fund banking, but to a smaller extent we saw a reduction in our Technology and Healthcare banking business. Despite a slowdown in private equity and venture capital markets, we are encouraged by strengthening loan pipeline in Global Fund Banking, which expanded by approximately [40%] (inaudible) quarter as the team continues to support our existing clients as well as add new relationships.

SVB 部門貸款的減少主要是由於全球基金銀行業務的下降所致，但在較小程度上，我們看到我們的技術和醫療保健銀行業務有所減少。儘管私募股權和創投市場放緩，但我們對全球基金銀行業務的貸款管道的加強感到鼓舞，隨著團隊繼續支持我們現有的客戶並增加新的關係，該管道擴大了約[40%] （聽不清楚）季度。

Global Fund Banking closed on $4.8 billion in new deals in the fourth quarter, a 129% increase over the third quarter. While utilization room is depressed due to the macroeconomic environment, we have the largest one finance team in the market and total approved exposure on the loan book has stabilized and has started to ramp up as the team continues to execute. We remain the primary banking partner for the vast majority of our GFB clients, which positions us well to ramp up both loans and deposits quickly when the macroeconomic environment improves.

全球基金銀行業務第四季完成了 48 億美元的新交易，較第三季成長 129%。雖然宏觀經濟環境導致利用率下降，但我們擁有市場上最大的財務團隊，貸款帳簿上的核准貸款總額已穩定下來，並隨著團隊的繼續執行而開始增加。我們仍然是絕大多數 GFB 客戶的主要銀行合作夥伴，這使我們能夠在宏觀經濟環境改善時迅速增加貸款和存款。

The decline in Technology and Healthcare banking was driven by paydowns outpacing new fundings as the private market investment landscape continues to face headwinds resulting in a difficult exit environment, lower fundraising numbers and fewer deals.

科技和醫療保健銀行業務的下滑是由於私募市場投資環境持續面臨不利因素，導致退出環境困難、融資數量減少和交易減少，導致支付超過新融資金額。

Deposits were down a modest 0.3% sequentially driven by a $1.5 billion decline in the SVB segment due to continued client cash burn and muted fundraising activity. Importantly though, investment inflows increased from the third quarter, while outflows from burn declined, which helped us beat our third quarter forecast of an approximate $5 billion decline. The branch network declined by $492 million due to expected seasonal outflows. These declines were partially offset by a $2 billion increase in direct bank deposits.

由於客戶現金持續消耗和融資活動減弱，SVB 部門減少了 15 億美元，導致存款季減 0.3%。但重要的是，投資流入較第三季有所增加，而資金流出則下降，這幫助我們超越了第三季約 50 億美元下降的預測。由於預期的季節性資金外流，分行網路減少了 4.92 億美元。這些下降被銀行直接存款增加 20 億美元部分抵銷。

While the direct bank channel is higher cost and now accounts for 26% of our deposit base, it is an additional lever we continue to use to remain resilient through a turbulent environment and is a strong source of insured consumer deposits supporting our liquidity base. It also enabled us to pay down higher-cost FHLB debt earlier in the year and most recently redeemed some of our smaller subordinated debt issuances given excess capital and liquidity positions.

雖然直接銀行管道成本較高，目前占我們存款基礎的26%，但它是我們繼續使用的額外槓桿，以在動蕩的環境中保持彈性，並且是支持我們流動性基礎的保險消費者存款的強大來源。它還使我們能夠在今年稍早償還成本較高的 FHLB 債務，並在最近贖回了一些規模較小的次級債券發行，因為資本和流動性頭寸過剩。

Moving to capital. We continue to maintain a position of strength as our CET1 ratio increased by 11 basis points sequentially, ended the quarter at 13.36%, which remains well above our internal target range of 9% to 10%. The impact from our loss share agreement continues to provide for higher capital levels and contributed approximately 120 basis points to our CET1 ratio this quarter, down from 140 basis points last quarter.

遷往首都。我們繼續保持強勢地位，我們的 CET1 比率連續上升 11 個基點，本季末達到 13.36%，仍遠高於我們 9% 至 10% 的內部目標範圍。我們的損失分擔協議的影響繼續提供更高的資本水平，為本季度我們的 CET1 比率貢獻了約 120 個基點，低於上季度的 140 個基點。

Even without this benefit to our ratios, we remain well above our target capital ranges and anticipate operating at an elevated level in the near term. We are currently in our annual capital planning process which includes reassessment of our goals and targets for consideration of both SVB and future regulatory changes. This process includes a full stress test, including the acquired SVB portfolio.

即使我們的比率沒有這種好處，我們仍然遠高於我們的目標資本範圍，並預期短期內營運水準較高。我們目前正在進行年度資本規劃流程，其中包括重新評估我們的目標和目標，以考慮 SVB 和未來的監管變化。這個過程包括全面的壓力測試，包括收購的 SVB 投資組合。

Additionally, we continue to monitor the proposed Basel III rules but remained well positioned for any changes, including the inclusion of AOCI marks. Our CET1 ratio at the end of the fourth quarter was estimated at 11.8% when these AOCI marks are included and the impact from the loss share agreement is removed. We have confidence in the rate that we are accreting capital and our absolute capital levels relative to our internal targets, our capacity to handle balance sheet growth, our SVB integration efforts and our positioning with respect to the Basel III in game.

此外，我們繼續關注擬議的巴塞爾協議 III 規則，但仍為任何變更做好準備，包括納入 AOCI 標誌。當包括這些 AOCI 標記並消除損失份額協議的影響時，我們第四季末的 CET1 比率估計為 11.8%。我們對資本增值的速度和相對於內部目標的絕對資本水準、處理資產負債表成長的能力、SVB 整合工作以及我們在巴塞爾協議 III 中的定位充滿信心。

Therefore, we do anticipate that our 2024 capital plan will include a share repurchase plan, which once approved, will commence in the second half of this year. We also anticipate beginning a programmatic issuance of long-term debt in 2024 to ensure compliance with the proposed long-term debt requirements by the expected phase-in deadlines. We expect our binding and strain to be risk-weighted assets for long-term debt and estimate our long-term debt shortfall to be approximately $8 billion to $11 billion.

因此，我們預計我們的 2024 年資本計劃將包括股票回購計劃，一旦獲得批准，將於今年下半年開始。我們也預計將於 2024 年開始有計劃地發行長期債務，以確保在預期的分階段期限內遵守擬議的長期債務要求。我們預計我們的約束力和壓力將成為長期債務的風險加權資產，並估計我們的長期債務缺口約為 80 億至 110 億美元。

While this strategy is partly dictated by regulatory requirements, we anticipate these funding actions along with our deposit growth strategies will support the replacement of some portion of the FDIC-purchased money note, which matures in March of 2028.

雖然這項策略在一定程度上是由監管要求決定的，但我們預計這些融資行動以及我們的存款成長策略將支持替換 FDIC 購買的部分紙幣，該紙幣將於 2028 年 3 月到期。

I will close today on Page 31 by discussing our first quarter and full year outlook for 2024. We anticipate that loans will remain flat to modestly increase in the first quarter, driven by low single-digit percentage (inaudible) Commercial Banking segment due to continued strong performance in our industry verticals. We anticipate SVB loan balances to remain flat in the mid-$50 billion range.

今天，我將在第31 頁結束時討論我們對2024 年第一季和全年的展望。我們預計，第一季貸款將保持平穩，小幅增長，原因是商業銀行部門的個位數百分比較低（聽不清楚）。我們在垂直行業的表現強勁。我們預計 SVB 貸款餘額將維持在 500 億美元左右的水平。

As mentioned earlier, the Global Fund Banking business is benefiting from a strong pipeline due to being back in the market for clients during the second half of 2023 following the pause prior and immediately after the acquisition. This growth, however, will continue to be pressured by headwinds in the private equity and venture capital markets. We also anticipate a modest decline in the Technology and Healthcare banking business as lower levels of new fundings and line draws coupled with increased loan payoffs result in loan portfolio contraction.

如前所述，全球基金銀行業務正受益於強大的管道，因為在收購之前和收購之後暫停之後，該業務將在 2023 年下半年重新回到客戶市場。然而，這種成長將繼續受到私募股權和創投市場逆風的壓力。我們也預計，由於新資金和額度提取水平較低，加上貸款償還增加，導致貸款組合收縮，科技和醫療保健銀行業務將小幅下滑。

Looking at the full year, we expect loans to end in the $139 billion to $143 billion range or mid-single-digit percentage growth. We foresee increased volumes in our Global Fund Banking business as a result of increased outreach beginning in the second quarter of '23 and our increased pipeline. Additionally, we continue to see strong growth in our general and commercial bank segments.

展望全年，我們預計貸款最終將在 1,390 億美元至 1,430 億美元之間，即中等個位數百分比成長。我們預計，由於從 2023 年第二季開始擴大業務範圍以及增加管道，我們的全球基金銀行業務量將會增加。此外，我們的一般銀行和商業銀行業務持續強勁成長。

However, we do expect moderation to mid-single-digit percentage growth in these segments in 2023. Turning to deposits, we expect a low single-digit percentage point increase in the first quarter, primarily due to growth in the branch network driven by leveraging new products and initiatives to deepen client relationships that emphasize deposit growth as well as seasonal growth prior to April tax outflows. We are also focused on increasing our customer base by building deposits through proactive sales, associate outreach, centralized marketing campaign and increased community connectivity.

然而，我們確實預計2023 年這些細分市場的成長率將放緩至中個位數百分比。談到存款，我們預計第一季將出現低個位數百分比成長，這主要是由於槓桿驅動的分行網路的成長深化客戶關係的新產品和舉措，強調存款成長以及四月稅收流出之前的季節性成長。我們也致力於透過主動銷售、員工外展、集中行銷活動和增強社區聯繫來累積存款，從而擴大客戶群。

For the full year, we anticipate low to mid-single-digit percentage growth primarily related to growth in the general bank previously discussed and a mid-single-digit percentage growth in SVB deposits as market activity and the impacts of customer outreach begin to help produce deposit growth in the back half of 2024.

就全年而言，我們預計低至中個位數的百分比增長主要與之前討論的一般銀行的增長有關，並且隨著市場活動和客戶拓展的影響開始有所幫助，SVB 存款將出現中個位數的百分比成長2024 年下半年存款將會成長。

With respect to SVB deposits, we expect the venture capital environment to remain challenging, particularly in the first half of 2024. Since April, we've seen SVB deposits remain largely stable despite continued cash burn exceeding funds sourced from fundraising activities. Encouragingly, we also added over 60 new primary operating business clients between April and November of 2023. We believe our emphasis on client engagement, coupled with better fundraising in the back half of 2024 will help propel modest growth in this segment.

就 SVB 存款而言，我們預計創投環境仍將充滿挑戰，特別是在 2024 年上半年。自 4 月以來，我們看到 SVB 存款基本上保持穩定，儘管現金消耗持續超過為籌款活動籌集的資金。令人鼓舞的是，我們還在2023 年4 月至11 月期間增加了60 多個新的主要營運業務客戶。我們相信，我們對客戶參與的重視，加上2024 年下半年更好的融資將有助於推動該領域的適度成長。

We'll continue to raise deposits in our direct bank. However, given the excess liquidity on our balance sheet, this pace will be moderated from the growth we experienced in 2023 with a growth rate of less than 10% anticipated in the channel. This obviously could change if we have unexpected deposit outflows elsewhere.

我們將繼續增加直接銀行的存款。然而，考慮到我們資產負債表上的流動性過剩，這一速度將比 2023 年的成長放緩，通路中預計成長率將低於 10%。如果我們在其他地方出現意外的存款外流，這種情況顯然可能會改變。

Our interest rate forecast follows the implied forward curve, which includes 6 rate cuts in 2024, with the effective Fed funds rate declining from 5.5% to 4% by the end of the year. The implied curve currently diverges from the Fed dot plot expectations, which includes 3 rate cuts with effective Fed funds rate declining to 4.75%. It is our belief that we will see closer to 3 or 4 rate cuts given the continued strength in the labor market and the fact that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target rate. Therefore, for our net interest income guidance, we provide a range with the top end assuming 3 rate cuts and the low end assuming 6 rate cuts.

我們的利率預測遵循隱含遠期曲線，其中包括 2024 年 6 次降息，有效聯邦基金利率到年底從 5.5% 降至 4%。目前隱含曲線與聯準會點陣圖預期有差異，其中包括 3 次降息，有效聯邦基金利率降至 4.75%。我們相信，鑑於勞動市場的持續走強以及通膨仍然頑固地高於聯準會目標利率的事實，我們將看到接近 3 或 4 次降息。因此，對於我們的淨利息收入指導，我們提供了一個範圍，高端假設降息 3 次，低端假設降息 6 次。

For the first quarter, we expect net interest income to be down in mid-single-digit percentage points range with and without accretion. The decline in headline net interest income will be driven by the impact of lower accretion and higher deposit costs, only partially offset by higher investment yields. For the full year, we expect net interest income in the range of $6.9 billion to $7.1 billion, with the low end assuming 6 rate cuts and the high end, assuming 3 rate cuts. In either case, we project accretion income close to $485 million for the year, which is a decline from $725 million in the last 3 quarters of '23 as loan discounts on some of the shorter portfolios have been fully recognized.

對於第一季度，我們預期淨利息收入無論有沒有增加，都會下降中個位數百分點。整體淨利息收入的下降將受到增值減少和存款成本上升的影響，但投資收益率的上升僅部分抵消了這一影響。就全年而言，我們預期淨利息收入在69億美元至71億美元之間，低端假設有6次降息，高端則假設有3次降息。無論哪種情況，我們預計今年的增值收入將接近 4.85 億美元，較 2023 年最後 3 個季度的 7.25 億美元有所下降，因為一些較短投資組合的貸款折扣已得到充分認可。

Isolated net interest income for the second through fourth quarter period to take into effect the timing of the SVB merger with 6 rate cuts, we expect headline net interest income to be low double digits percentage points and ex accretion by high single-digit percentage point. With 3 rate cuts, we expect headline to be down high single-digit percentage points and ex accretion down low to mid-single-digit percentage points.

考慮到 SVB 合併和 6 次降息的時間，第二季至第四季的獨立淨利息收入預計整體淨利息收入將達到低兩位數百分點，除稅後成長將達到高個位數百分點。隨著 3 次降息，我們預計整體經濟將下降高個位數百分點，而除稅成長將下降低至中個位數百分點。

We anticipate our full cycle data to be approximately 44%, which is materially in line with our previous estimate of 43%.

我們預計全週期資料約為 44%，這與我們先前估計的 43% 基本一致。

Moving on to adjusted noninterest income. We expect the first quarter to be relatively in line with the fourth quarter in the $440 million to $460 million range. Looking at the full year and isolating for only the second through fourth quarters, we anticipate being flat as continued growth in net operating lease rental, wealth management and mortgage income are offset by a decline in client investment fees due to anticipated lower -- the anticipated lower interest rate environment.

接下來是調整後的非利息收入。我們預計第一季將與第四季在 4.4 億美元至 4.6 億美元的範圍內相對一致。縱觀全年，僅考慮第二至第四季度，我們預計將持平，因為淨經營租賃租金、財富管理和抵押貸款收入的持續增長被預期較低的客戶投資費用下降所抵消。較低的利率環境。

We expect full year noninterest income to be in the range of $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion. As Frank mentioned in his comments, we are excited for the continued build-out of and momentum in our wealth platform and will look to fully convert the legacy Silicon private businesses in 2024.

我們預計全年非利息收入將在 18 億至 19 億美元之間。正如弗蘭克在評論中提到的那樣，我們對財富平台的持續建設和發展勢頭感到興奮，並希望在 2024 年完全轉變傳統的矽谷私營企業。

Moving to expenses. We expect a modest increase from the fourth quarter due to seasonal increases in personnel expense from higher benefits and incentives and software costs due to continued build out of product capabilities that will help us be the premier partner in the innovation economy in areas such as cash management, FX and payments as well as continued investment in our wealth capabilities that will help us sell deeper into our new national reach.

轉向開支。我們預計第四季度將出現小幅增長，原因是更高的福利和激勵措施帶來的人員費用季節性增加，以及由於持續構建產品功能而導致的軟體成本增加，這將有助於我們成為現金管理等領域創新經濟的首要合作夥伴、外匯和支付以及對我們財富能力的持續投資，將幫助我們更深入地拓展我們新的全國影響力。

Furthermore, we will continue the modernization of our platforms in consumer, equipment finance and factoring to ensure we are well equipped to scale in the future. We also have a few regulatory projects we will be completing this year related to ISO payments and Dodd-Frank. In addition, as Frank alluded to earlier, we were focused on building out our capabilities in the large bank and regulatory spaces which will require some focused builds.

此外，我們將繼續對消費者、設備融資和保理方面的平台進行現代化改造，以確保我們有能力在未來擴大規模。我們今年也將完成一些與 ISO 支付和多德弗蘭克法案相關的監管項目。此外，正如弗蘭克之前提到的，我們專注於在大型銀行和監管領域建立我們的能力，這將需要一些有針對性的建設。

As of this -- all of this will be partially offset by continued acquisition synergies. Looking at the full year and isolating for the second through fourth quarters, we anticipate noninterest expense to be flat to up low single digits percentage points which equates to an adjusted noninterest expense target for the year of between $4.6 billion and $4.7 billion.

截至目前，所有這些都將被持續的收購綜效所部分抵銷。縱觀全年，並單獨考慮第二至第四季度，我們預計非利息支出將持平或上升低個位數百分點，相當於調整後的全年非利息支出目標在46 億美元至47 億美元之間。

While we expect to achieve the lower 25% band of our cost saves goal by the end of 2024, these savings will be offset by continued capability build out for large bank expectations as well as costs related to the strategic priorities I just mentioned. Our adjusted efficiency ratio is expected to be in the low 50% range in 2024, up slightly from 49% for full year 2023.

雖然我們預計到 2024 年底實現 25% 的成本節省目標，但這些節省將被大型銀行期望的持續能力建設以及與我剛才提到的戰略優先事項相關的成本所抵消。預計到 2024 年，我們的調整後效率將處於 50% 的低水平，略高於 2023 年全年的 49%。

On credit, we anticipate net charge-offs to remain in the 50 to 60 basis points range in the first quarter, given continued pressure in the general office real estate, small ticket equipment leasing and innovation portfolios. For the year, we expect net charge-offs in the 45 to 55 basis points range as we expect some of the pressure in the investor dependent portfolio to soften in the back half of the year as well as some of the changes we made in underwriting small ticket leases in 2022 began to favorably impact the net charge-off ratio.

在信貸方面，鑑於一般辦公房地產、小額設備租賃和創新投資組合的持續壓力，我們預計第一季淨沖銷將保持在 50 至 60 個基點範圍內。今年，我們預計淨沖銷將在 45 至 55 個基點範圍內，因為我們預計依賴投資者的投資組合的部分壓力將在下半年有所緩解，並且我們在承保方面做出了一些改變2022 年小票租賃開始對淨沖銷率產生有利影響。

For both the first quarter and full year of 2024, we expect our tax rate to be in the 27% to 28% range, which is exclusive of any discrete items.

對於 2024 年第一季和全年，我們預計稅率將在 27% 至 28% 範圍內，這不包括任何離散項目。

In closing, we have accomplished a lot in 2023, including the transformational acquisition of SVB, which brought significant scale to our business and new product offerings through our geographically diverse client base. While economic and geopolitical uncertainties remain, we believe the strength of our diversified businesses, our strong capital and liquidity positions and our hard-working and dedicated associates will help us continue to take care of our customers and clients and deliver meaningful returns to our shareholders.

最後，我們在 2023 年取得了許多成就，包括對 SVB 的轉型收購，這為我們的業務帶來了巨大的規模，並透過我們分佈在不同地理位置的客戶群提供了新產品。儘管經濟和地緣政治的不確定性依然存在，但我們相信，我們多元化業務的實力、強大的資本和流動性狀況以及勤奮敬業的員工將幫助我們繼續照顧我們的客戶，並為股東帶來有意義的回報。

As we've proven during previous economic downturns, our business model is resilient and recession-ready, in large part due to our disciplined through-the-cycle credit underwriting standards and robust risk management infrastructure. In 2024, we remain focused on allocating capital where we can drive deeper relationship business with the goal of continuing to deliver top-tier financial returns. I will now turn it over to the operator for instructions for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

正如我們在先前的經濟衰退期間所證明的那樣，我們的業務模式具有彈性並已做好應對衰退的準備，這在很大程度上歸功於我們嚴格的整個週期信貸承保標準和強大的風險管理基礎設施。 2024 年，我們仍然專注於分配資本，以推動更深層的關係業務，以繼續提供頂級財務回報。我現在將其轉交給接線員，以獲取有關通話問答部分的說明。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today comes from the line of Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I want to start on asset sensitivity and the net interest income guidance. So part of what makes you guys so asset sensitive, right, is the outsized cash position. How do you guys see cash balances trending through 2024? What's in the guidance? And if the Fed does start cutting rates, is that the time to start putting more cash to work? Or are you still more focused on SVB deposits and other issues?

我想從資產敏感性和淨利息收入指導開始。因此，你們對資產如此敏感的部分原因是巨額現金部位。你們如何看待 2024 年現金餘額趨勢？指南中有什麼內容？如果聯準會確實開始降息，是不是該開始投入更多現金了？還是您更關注SVB存款等問題？

Well, first of all, right now, cash is around 17% of earning assets. And ideally, over time, we'd like to see that migrate to 10% to 12% replaced with either loans or investments. So -- but at this point in time, where we are in the cycle, we believe we have time to get that down, especially given the purchase money note. I'll let Tom talk a little bit about the rate sensitivity and the cash balance and what we may be looking for doing to position ourselves going forward.

嗯，首先，目前現金約佔獲利資產的 17%。理想情況下，隨著時間的推移，我們希望看到 10% 到 12% 的比例被貸款或投資所取代。所以，但在我們所處的周期的這個時間點，我們相信我們有時間把它降下來，特別是考慮到購買鈔票。我會讓湯姆談談利率敏感度和現金餘額，以及我們可能會尋求做些什麼來定位自己的未來。

Yes, Steve. During the second half of last year, we put about $8 billion worth of migrated from cash to securities, and we expect that to continue into 2024. Really, what we're doing is we're taking a methodical approach, not trying to buy the curve on any one day, but sort of do it over time and we'll continue to do that. We also put on about $1 billion worth of fair value hedges where we moved some of our fixed rate borrowings to floating rates. And you can expect to see that sort of continue to mitigate that asset sensitivity over time.

是的，史蒂夫。去年下半年，我們將價值約 80 億美元的資金從現金轉向證券，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2024 年。實際上，我們正​​在採取有條不紊的方法，而不是試圖購買任何一天的曲線，但隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續這樣做。我們也進行了價值約 10 億美元的公允價值對沖，將部分固定利率借款轉為浮動利率。隨著時間的推移，您可以期望看到這種情況繼續減輕資產敏感性。

Okay. Got it. But you're generally expecting cash balances to stay fairly elevated in terms of what's in the NII guidance, right? That's what you're saying.

好的。知道了。但您通常預計現金餘額相對於國家資訊基礎設施指導中的內容將保持相當高的水平，對吧？這就是你所說的。

Yes, I think that's true, although I think the percentage might drop some, but not into that 10% to 12% [bank loan] at the end of 2024.

是的，我認為確實如此，儘管我認為這一比例可能會下降一些，但不會到 2024 年底下降到 10% 到 12% [銀行貸款]。

Okay. And then my follow-up question, I don't know Marc's on the line but in terms of the SVB business, last quarter, you guys talked about some green shoots, positive signs, right, new account openings. Curious, what do you see in the most recent quarter in terms of clients' prospects coming back to the bank and what's your assessment of the state of the market right now? I saw early-stage losses up a bit. Capital falls down, pipeline up. Just looks like the view on the current ecosystem at the moment.

好的。然後是我的後續問題，我不知道 Marc 是否在線，但就 SVB 業務而言，上個季度，你們談到了一些新芽、積極跡象，對吧，新開戶。好奇，您對最近一個季度回到銀行的客戶前景有何看法？您對目前市場狀況的評估是什麼？我看到早期損失增加。資本下降，管道上升。看起來就像是目前對當前生態系統的看法。

Marc, do you want to take that?

馬克，你想接受這個嗎？

Yes. Happy to jump in there. Steve, it's Marc Cadieux. And the fourth quarter was really, in this regard, a lot like the third quarter, continued momentum with new clients, new lending, winning back business that had departed to other financial institutions, et cetera. And so very encouraged by that as we look ahead to '24. At the same time, as I think Craig already mentioned, our target markets, the innovation economy continues to go through the reset, its own downturn. And as mentioned, we expect that's going to continue in '24. And so our intention is to keep doing what we were doing in '23. And hoping that '25 and ahead is better conditions, but again, feel good about the momentum we've got and going into '24, notwithstanding that we still have market headwinds.

是的。很高興跳進去。史蒂夫，我是馬克‧卡迪厄。從這方面來說，第四季度確實很像第三季度，新客戶、新貸款、贏回流失到其他金融機構的業務等方面繼續保持勢頭。當我們展望 24 世紀時，我們對此感到非常鼓舞。同時，正如我認為克雷格已經提到的那樣，我們的目標市場，創新經濟繼續經歷重置和自身的低迷。正如前面提到的，我們預計這種情況將在 24 年繼續下去。所以我們的目的是繼續做我們在 23 年所做的事情。希望 25 年及以後的情況會更好，但同樣，我們對進入 24 年的勢頭感到滿意，儘管我們仍然面臨市場阻力。

The next question today comes from the line of Brody Preston from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

Craig, I just wanted to follow up on the cash comment. So if we're -- if you're using the forward curve, which has the Fed funds ending at 4% at the high end of the target range for 2024, so like [3.78%] at the midpoint. Why not use the cash at the end of the year or sometime in the first quarter of '25, maybe to pay back that FDIC note. I mean, you'd just be earning like 35 to 40 basis points on it at that time. So it's pretty NIM dilutive. And I'm assuming that you all feel like you have a pretty decent handle on the [SVB] deposits now. Like is that contemplated in your thought process at all?

克雷格，我只是想跟進現金評論。因此，如果我們使用遠期曲線，則聯邦基金利率最終為 2024 年目標範圍上限的 4%，就像中點的 [3.78%]。為什麼不在年底或 25 年第一季的某個時候使用現金，也許可以償還 FDIC 票據。我的意思是，那時你只能賺 35 到 40 個基點。所以它對淨利差的稀釋作用很大。我假設你們都覺得現在對 [SVB] 存款的處理相當不錯。您的思考過程中是否考慮過這一點？

Yes, I'm going to let Tom amplify what I'm going to say here. But right now, where rates are, there's a positive arbitrage in there. And while it's dilutive to NIM, it's accretive to net interest income. Obviously, as we move into more rate cuts, it becomes less attractive to leave that purchase money note out there. And with the excess liquidity we have, we would have some optionality of pulling that down. Tom, would you like to amplify that?

是的，我將讓湯姆詳細說明我要在這裡說的話。但目前，利率在哪裡，就存在積極的套利。雖然它會稀釋淨息差，但會增加淨利息收入。顯然，隨著我們進一步降息，將購買鈔票留在那裡就變得不那麼有吸引力了。由於我們擁有過剩的流動性，我們可以選擇降低流動性。湯姆，你想強調一下嗎？

I mean, I think the only comment I'd make is that, again, that excess liquidity and having that cash provides that option for us should raise all of the forecasted path and the forward rate curve. That's where it is.

我的意思是，我認為我要發表的唯一評論是，流動性過剩和擁有現金為我們提供了這種選擇，應該會提高所有預測路徑和遠期利率曲線。就是這樣。

And then I did want to circle back. I think I heard you earlier, Craig, that you said you expected the [SVB] loans to remain flattening around like in the $50 billion-ish kind of area for this year. I guess I wanted to ask like a little bit of a 2-part question here. What is kind of like the mix that you're assuming within that just because I saw that the cash flow dependent balances were up about $1 billion this quarter. And then two, like how do you think about the components of growth and what it does to the multiple? Because you kind of have these 2 divergent paths, right? If you can grow SVB that should naturally come with higher DDA balances, and that's really enhancing to your multiple over the long term versus kind of growing the higher-yielding Commercial Bank and maybe funding it more with your savings product. It's great for balance sheet growth, but I think investors would do that as less multiple enhancing? Like how do you think about those 2 paths?

然後我確實想繞回來。克雷格，我想我早些時候聽到您說，您預計 [SVB] 貸款將保持平穩，就像今年 500 億美元左右的區域一樣。我想我想在這裡問一個由兩部分組成的問題。有點像您假設的混合情況，只是因為我看到本季依賴現金流的餘額增加了約 10 億美元。然後是兩個問題，例如您如何看待成長的組成部分以及它對倍數的影響？因為你有這兩條不同的路徑，對吧？如果您能夠發展SVB，那麼自然會帶來更高的DDA 餘額，從長遠來看，這確實會提高您的市盈率，而不是發展收益更高的商業銀行，並可能用您的儲蓄產品為其提供更多資金。這對資產負債表的成長很有好處，但我認為投資人會這樣做，因為倍數增強較少？您如何看待這兩條路徑？

Yes. Brody, this is Elliot Howard. I think on the [SVB] growth, we're expected to be up slightly from about mid-50s range this year, and a lot of that is in the Global Fund Banking. Craig mentioned that our pipeline was up $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter from where it was, just really as a result of kind of being back in the market more fully in the second quarter. I think we're still seeing headwinds as Marc mentioned, (inaudible) Healthcare, just given the overall kind of environment. Longer term, I think we're bullish on the SVB growth, market activity returns, just with a similar of a client in the outreach to new clients. I think with that, certainly, with the loan growth, we'd expect more deposit growth to come as well as that returns, and that's having cheaper rate on what we have certainly again our (inaudible) product in direct banks. The more that we can grow the SVB , we do think that will be sort of even better for the overall bank in earnings.

是的。布羅迪，這是艾利歐特霍華德。我認為，就 [SVB] 成長而言，我們預計今年將略高於 50 年代中期的範圍，其中很大一部分來自全球基金銀行業務。克雷格提到，我們的管道在第四季度比原來增加了 15 億美元，這實際上是由於第二季度更全面地重返市場的結果。我認為，正如馬克所提到的，（聽不清楚）醫療保健，考慮到整體環境，我們仍然面臨逆風。從長遠來看，我認為我們看好 SVB 的成長、市場活動回報，就像客戶在拓展新客戶方面的表現一樣。我認為，當然，隨著貸款的成長，我們預計會出現更多的存款成長以及回報，而且我們在直接銀行的（聽不清楚）產品的利率也會更低。我們確實認為，SVB 成長得越多，整個銀行的獲利就會越好。

Got it. So just to confirm, though, for 2024, it does sound like we're leaning more into the Commercial Bank and maybe kind of funding that with higher cost savings deposits. Is that fair?

知道了。不過，為了確認一下，到 2024 年，我們確實會更傾向於商業銀行，或許還會透過更高成本的儲蓄存款來提供資金。這樣公平嗎？

We're also projecting mid-single-digit growth in the General Bank as well. So it's just pretty spread across the loan portfolios.

我們也預期綜合銀行也將實現中個位數成長。所以它在貸款組合中分佈相當廣泛。

The next question today comes from the line of Christopher Marinac from Janney Montgomery Scott.

今天的下一個問題來自詹尼·蒙哥馬利·斯科特的克里斯多福·馬裡納克。

Just wanted to ask more about the general criticized loan trends beyond what we saw in the DAC on office and the SVB portfolio?

只是想詢問更多有關普遍受到批評的貸款趨勢的信息，除了我們在辦公室的 DAC 和 SVB 投資組合中看到的情況之外？

Yes. Sure. This is Andy Giangrave. Obviously, it's -- the trends we're seeing are concentrated in general office and innovation. I think we have seen moderate migration in C&I, but nothing at this point of any concern.

是的。當然。這是安迪·吉安格雷夫。顯然，我們看到的趨勢集中在綜合辦公室和創新領域。我認為我們在工商業中看到了適度的移民，但目前還沒有任何值得擔憂的地方。

Great. And then the charge-off guide being a little higher now in Q1 and then a little lower for the whole year, does that indicate to sort of kind of past clean up or clean up from past issues? Or do you see sort of, I guess, some greater shoots that, that credit can improve as this year goes on?

偉大的。然後，第一季的沖銷指南略高，然後全年略低，這是否表示對過去的清理或對過去問題的清理？或者我想，你是否看到一些更大的機會，隨著今年的繼續，信用會有所改善？

Yes. I think it's going to be the continued pain that we spoke about last quarter and this quarter. It's going to be concentrated in office innovation and our equipment finance. Obviously, there's the secular shift in office that's still a challenge, especially in this interest rate environment. The innovation, I think Marc highlighted well, the challenges in the market. And then in the equipment finance side, it's really working through some of those older vintages, but we feel like the tightening of our underwriting in that portfolio and some of the increase in collection efforts should start to show some benefits in the back half of the year.

是的。我認為這將是我們上個季度和本季談到的持續痛苦。它將集中在辦公室創新和我們的設備融資上。顯然，辦公室的長期轉變仍然是一個挑戰，特別是在這種利率環境下。我認為馬克很好地強調了創新和市場挑戰。然後在設備融資方面，它確實正在經歷一些較舊的年份，但我們認為我們在該投資組合中的承保收緊以及收款工作的一些增加應該開始在下半年顯示出一些好處年。

Our next question today comes from the line of Brian Foran from Autonomous.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Brian Foran。

Maybe to follow up on credit and these 4 kind of main portfolios, the (inaudible) office, the [2 investor-dependent] and in the small ticket equipment finance. I think they total about $6.5 billion now, and you give us the reserves on most. But then I guess you also have pretty heavy charge-offs already and some purchase accounting marks. I don't know if it's easier to talk about them as a group or some of them separate. Is there any way to like frame between the allowance, the charge-offs to date and the purchase accounting. Like what is the cumulative loss you've now recognized on these portfolios.

也許是為了跟進信貸和這 4 種主要投資組合，（聽不清楚）辦公室、[2 依賴投資者] 和小額設備融資。我認為現在總額約為 65 億美元，您為我們提供了大部分儲備金。但我想你也已經有相當大的沖銷和一些購買會計標記。我不知道將它們作為一個整體來討論還是單獨討論它們是否更容易。有什麼辦法可以在津貼、迄今為止的沖銷和採購會計之間建立框架嗎？就像您現在在這些投資組合中認識到​​的累積損失是多少一樣。

Brian, this is Craig. I'll take those individually and in aggregate because I think it's important to really size that portfolio relative to the overall loan portfolio. If you take those 3 components, commercial, general office, equipment finance and the investor-dependent loans, whether the growth stages or early stage. Those totaled about $11.3 billion which is 8% of the loan portfolio. If you look at -- and now -- and so all those portfolios, we have total loss absorbing capacity of around 6.06% on net charge-offs for the year of around [$3.6 billion].

布萊恩，這是克雷格。我將單獨和匯總這些內容，因為我認為相對於整體貸款組合真正調整投資組合的規模非常重要。如果你考慮這三個組成部分，商業、一般辦公室、設備融資和投資者依賴的貸款，無論是成長階段還是早期階段。這些總額約為 113 億美元，佔貸款組合的 8%。如果你看看現在所有這些投資組合，我們的總損失吸收能力約為 6.06%，全年淨沖銷約為 [36 億美元]。

So if you aggregate those portfolios, our coverage is 1.9x, if we slice it down to the individual portfolios, commercial, general office, we have a coverage ratio of 1.1 and allowance us 7.99% on charge-off price of [$7.48]. On the equipment finance, the allowance is 3.52% and charge-offs [$1.87] to around [$1.90] coverage. And then on investor dependent, we have an allowance of [$5.21] and a purchase discount of [$3.58] which totals the total loss absorbing capacity of [$8.79]. So the allowance covers the charge-offs of [$4.66], but when including that purchase discount, which is available to absorb losses takes it to 1.9x. So we feel really good about both our projections there and about our coverage in terms of charge-offs both that we've incurred and that we expect to occur moving forward.

因此，如果您匯總這些投資組合，我們的覆蓋率為1.9 倍，如果我們將其細分為單一投資組合、商業、一般辦公室，我們的覆蓋率為1.1，並以[7.48 美元] 的沖銷價格為我們提供7.99% 的補助。在設備融資方面，補貼為 3.52%，沖銷 [1.87 美元] 覆蓋範圍約為 [1.90 美元]。然後，根據投資者的情況，我們有 [5.21 美元] 的津貼和 [3.58 美元] 的購買折扣，總損失吸收能力為 [8.79 美元]。因此，津貼涵蓋了 [4.66 美元] 的沖銷，但如果包括可用於吸收損失的購買折扣，則津貼額會達到 1.9 倍。因此，我們對我們的預測以及我們在沖銷方面的覆蓋範圍感到非常滿意，無論是我們已經發生的還是我們預計未來會發生的沖銷。

That's really helpful. I guess on the buyback, I'm assuming you're not going to answer the obvious question of sizing it for the second half of the year. But maybe can you just remind us, as we've moved through this year, there's been CET1. There's been CET1 ex the loss share. There's been the leverage. It seems like some of the divergent metrics are starting to converge. But when you look at kind of your excess capital position and what number are you focused on? Is it the roughly 12% pro forma CET1 versus the 9% to 10% target? With the different capital metrics, what's the focus right now as you move to midyear?

這真的很有幫助。我想在回購方面，我假設你不會回答下半年調整規模的明顯問題。但也許你能提醒我們一下，今年我們已經經歷了 CET1。除損失份額外，還有 CET1。這就是槓桿作用。一些不同的指標似乎開始趨同。但是，當您查看您的過剩資本部位類型時，您關注的數字是多少？是大約 12% 的預期 CET1 還是 9% 到 10% 的目標？考慮到不同的資本指標，進入年中時現在的重點是什麼？

Yes. We look at it sort of -- I mean, if we do an asset test as of [12/31/23], with Basel III, it's around 12%. If we do an asset test with Basel III at loss here, it's around 11%. So that range of 11% to 12% sort of asset (inaudible) at 12/31/23 leaves us well above our target ranges. And then obviously, as time goes on, we're accreting earnings at about 36 basis points a quarter and risk-weighted assets, we're taking at 27. So we look -- it's going to continue -- our capital position is going to continue to build. So we do think that share repurchases are going to -- we feel confident about share repurchases, not only rate accreting capital, but just the absolute levels of capital, our capacity to handle our balance sheet growth, SVB integration efforts and our positioning with respect to Basel III, all give us confidence in a very purposed plan.

是的。我們會這樣看待——我的意思是，如果我們截至 [12/31/23] 進行資產測試，根據巴塞爾協議 III，該比例約為 12%。如果我們用巴塞爾協議 III 進行資產測試，損失率約為 11%。因此，2023 年 12 月 31 日的 11% 至 12% 資產範圍（聽不清楚）使我們遠高於目標範圍。顯然，隨著時間的推移，我們每季的收益成長約 36 個基點，風險加權資產則為 27 個基點。所以我們認為——這將繼續下去——我們的資本狀況正在變化繼續建設。因此，我們確實認為股票回購將會——我們對股票回購充滿信心，不僅是資本增值，而且是資本的絕對水平、我們處理資產負債表增長的能力、SVB 整合工作以及我們尊重的定位巴塞爾協議III 的所有這些都讓我們對目標明確的計劃充滿信心。

And you're right, I really can't speak to the size of that until we get through our internal stress testing, which is being conducted now as part of our capital plan. We do expect the timing subject to necessary internal and regulatory approvals to be in the second half of this year. So I hope that's helpful, but we are looking at definitely (inaudible) our capital ratios are well above our target ranges, looking at it in a myriad of different ways.

你是對的，在我們完成內部壓力測試之前，我真的無法談論其規模，該測試現在作為我們資本計劃的一部分進行。我們確實預計，在獲得必要的內部和監管批准後，時間將在今年下半年。所以我希望這會有所幫助，但我們正在以多種不同的方式來看待我們的資本比率（聽不清楚）肯定遠高於我們的目標範圍。

The next question today is a follow-up question from Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題是摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos 提出的後續問題。

So the market is pretty happy with the news of buybacks coming back in the second half. My question is, so given the tangible book value growth, such a key focus for the senior team, at this valuation, I'm sure you'd love to be buying back the stock today. But at what valuation do buybacks become less attractive, right? I mean if the stock is trading, Marc delivers what we think at SVB, just saying it's 1.5% or something like that. This year, do you still buy back in the second half? Like where is like the line of the sand where you don't find buybacks as attractive?

因此，市場對下半年回購的消息非常滿意。我的問題是，考慮到有形的帳面價值成長，這是高階團隊的一個重點關注點，在這個估值下，我相信你今天會願意回購股票。但在什麼估值下，回購的吸引力就會降低，對嗎？我的意思是，如果股票正在交易，Marc 會給出我們在 SVB 的想法，只是說它是 1.5% 或類似的東西。今年下半年你還會回購嗎？就像你認為回購沒有吸引力的沙線？

Well, we look at it just like we would any other acquisitions. So there are a myriad of payback periods and tangible dilution payback periods that we look at. I'm not going to get into our modeling on it. But we certainly scrutinize repurchases just like we would scrutinize purchasing another bank in the open market. Tom, do you have anything else? Tom is responsible for some of the modeling we do there. But I think that's generally -- I don't think I left anything out there.

好吧，我們就像看待其他收購一樣看待它。因此，我們研究了無數的投資回收期和有形的稀釋投資回收期。我不打算討論我們的建模。但我們當然會審查回購，就像我們審查在公開市場上購買另一家銀行一樣。湯姆，你還有什麼事情嗎？湯姆負責我們在那裡做的一些建模工作。但我認為一般來說——我認為我沒有遺漏任何東西。

No, I think that's exactly right. I mean we bought back about (inaudible) in the past and it really has to do with sort of what our earnings trajectory looks like and sort of what other opportunities are out there. So yes, it varies, but it's not like there's a firm (inaudible).

不，我認為這是完全正確的。我的意思是，我們過去回購了（聽不清楚），這確實與我們的獲利軌跡以及其他機會有關。所以，是的，它有所不同，但不像有一家公司（聽不清楚）。

Got it. Okay. Just one other one. On the NII guide, do you guys include the expected cost of this $8 billion to $11 billion debt issuance? Is that in there? Or if you issue, will that then impact the NII guide?

知道了。好的。只是另一件。在 NII 指南中，你們是否包括了這次 80 億至 110 億美元債券發行的預期成本？那個在裡面嗎？或者如果您發布，是否會影響 NII 指南？

It's in there, but the issuance this year would be muted, so it won't have a significant impact on this year's NIM. But going forward, it will -- based on where our costs are today and what the costs are anticipated on that will probably be a headwind moving forward.

它在那裡，但今年的發行將是溫和的，因此不會對今年的淨息差產生重大影響。但展望未來，根據我們目前的成本狀況以及預期的成本，這可能會成為前進的阻力。

The next question today is a follow-up question from Brody Preston from UBS.

今天的下一個問題是瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布羅迪普雷斯頓 (Brody Preston) 的後續問題。

I just had a couple of clarifying questions that I wanted to ask. The first one was just on the innovation C&I and cash flow dependent portfolio. As I said earlier, that was up $1 billion in balances. Was there any like movement from like the growth stage portfolio there? Was that kind of like true growth within that portfolio? And if so, do you happen to kind of have a read on what the industry verticals were that drove that growth?

我只是想問幾個澄清問題。第一個是關於創新 C&I 和現金流依賴的投資組合。正如我之前所說，餘額增加了 10 億美元。那裡的成長階段投資組合是否有類似的變動？該投資組合中的這種成長是真正的成長嗎？如果是這樣，您是否碰巧了解推動這種成長的垂直產業是什麼？

Marc, do you have any insights on that? I don't have that right in front of me here.

馬克，你對此有什麼見解嗎？我面前沒有這個。

Yes. So for the SVB portion of the portfolio, the cash flow dependent growth would have been largely centered in sponsor finance and our project finance portfolios and where we've continued in sponsor to have some elevated criticized but on the new loan production. And generally speaking, these are loans that fund pretty close to inception. We're seeing really nice opportunities there, notwithstanding the broader backdrop. Hope that's helpful.

是的。因此，對於投資組合中的SVB部分，依賴現金流的成長將主要集中在贊助商融資和我們的專案融資投資組合中，我們繼續在贊助商中受到一些批評，但在新貸款生產上。一般來說，這些貸款的資金接近啟動時。儘管背景更廣闊，但我們在那裡看到了非常好的機會。希望有幫助。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And Craig, do you have what the unfunded commitment balances for the bank were at [12/31]?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。克雷格，你知道銀行 [12/31] 的無資金承諾餘額是多少嗎？

Not on hand. We'll take that offline.

手頭沒有。我們會將其離線。

Yes. Brody, I can follow up with you. This is Deanna, on those numbers.

是的。布羅迪，我可以跟你聯絡。這是迪安娜，在這些數字上。

Okay. Great. And Deanna, just last one, I got you. That [$198 million] loan accretion number, does that include any PAA that's related to the unfunded commitment book?

好的。偉大的。迪安娜，最後一位，我找到你了。 [1.98 億美元] 貸款增值數字是否包括與無資金承諾書相關的任何 PAA？

Yes. It would be inclusive of both the on balance sheet and off balance sheet.

是的。它將包括資產負債表內和資產負債表外。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. So I'd like to turn the call back over to our host, Deanna Hart for any closing remarks.

我目前不會提出任何進一步的問題。因此，我想將電話轉回給我們的主持人迪安娜·哈特 (Deanna Hart)，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining our call today. We appreciate your ongoing interest in our company. And if you have any further questions or need additional information, please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team. We hope you have a great rest of your day.

謝謝大家，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。我們感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。如果您還有任何其他問題或需要更多信息，請隨時聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。我們希望您度過愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。