First Citizens BancShares Inc (Delaware) (FCNCP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the First Citizens BancShares Second Quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持，並歡迎參加 First Citizens BancShares 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session.

演講者演講結束後，將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce the host of this conference call, Ms. Deanna Hart, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下本次電話會議的主持人，投資者關係主管 Deanna Hart 女士。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to First Citizens' second quarter earnings call.

早安，歡迎參加 First Citizens 第二季財報電話會議。

Joining me on the call today are our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Frank Holding; and Chief Financial Officer, Craig Nix.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼執行長 Frank Holding；和財務長克雷格·尼克斯。

They will provide second quarter business and financial updates referencing our earnings presentation, which you can find on our website.

他們將參考我們的收益報告提供第二季的業務和財務更新，您可以在我們的網站上找到報告。

Our comments will include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

我們的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。

We assume no obligation to update such statements.

我們不承擔更新此類聲明的義務。

These risks are outlined on page 3.

第 3 頁概述了這些風險。

We will also reference non-GAAP financial measures.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。

Reconciliations of these measures against the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in Section 5 of the presentation.

這些措施與最直接可比較的 GAAP 措施的調整可以在簡報的第 5 節中找到。

Finally, First Citizens is not responsible for and does not edit nor guarantee the accuracy of earnings transcripts provided by third parties.

最後，First Citizens 不負責、不編輯或保證第三方提供的收入記錄的準確性。

I will now turn it over to Frank.

我現在將把它交給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Deanna.

謝謝你，迪安娜。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our earnings call.

大家早安，歡迎參加我們的財報電話會議。

Starting on page 6, and this is the second quarter snapshot slide.

從第 6 頁開始，這是第二季的快照投影片。

We delivered another quarter of solid financial results, including peer leading return on assets, net interest margin, adjusted efficiency ratio, loan growth, CET1 ratio, and loan portfolio yield.

我們又一個季度實現了穩健的財務業績，包括同業領先的資產回報率、淨利差、調整後效率、貸款成長、CET1 比率和貸款組合收益率。

Our Board has approved a share repurchase plan, allowing us to repurchase shares in an aggregate amount up to $3.5 billion and Craig will speak to those details later.

我們的董事會已批准一項股票回購計劃，允許我們回購總額高達 35 億美元的股票，克雷格將在稍後討論這些細節。

And I'd like to point out that we were recently included in the Fortune 500 list for the first time.

我想指出的是，我們最近首次躋身《財星》500 強榜單。

Continuing on to Page 7, I'll take a look at -- well, I'll take a moment to focus on our business segment performance as well as their outlooks moving forward.

繼續第 7 頁，我將看一下——好吧，我將花點時間關注我們的業務部門績效以及他們的未來前景。

Starting with the General Bank, we saw positive loan trends as growth remained particularly resilient in business and commercial loans within our branch network.

從總銀行開始，我們看到了積極的貸款趨勢，因為我們分行網路內的商業和商業貸款的成長仍然特別有彈性。

We also experienced strong growth in our SBA, SVB private and wealth channels.

我們的 SBA、SVB 私人和財富管道也實現了強勁成長。

Importantly, we have not made any significant changes in our risk appetite or client selection to chase growth, as we feel our expertise and deep client relationships position us well to continue to grow prudently.

重要的是，我們沒有在風險偏好或客戶選擇上做出任何重大改變來追求成長，因為我們認為我們的專業知識和深厚的客戶關係使我們能夠繼續謹慎成長。

Deposit growth in our branch network during the first half of the year exceeded our expectations.

上半年，本行分行存款成長超出了我們的預期。

Looking forward, we see new production and client acquisition contributing to further balance sheet growth.

展望未來，我們看到新的生產和客戶獲取將有助於資產負債表的進一步成長。

We also see growth coming from deepening our relationships with existing customers, including SVB acquired customers.

我們也看到，成長來自於加深與現有客戶（包括 SVB 收購的客戶）的關係。

On the downside, we recognize that reductions in interest rates will cause margin compression.

不利的一面是，我們認識到利率下降將導致利潤率壓縮。

However, we are building strategies to mitigate the expected negative impact, including a focus on the mix of our deposits by targeting operating accounts, growing quality loans, and improving non-interest income from all sources.

然而，我們正在製定策略來減輕預期的負面影響，包括透過瞄準經營帳戶、增加優質貸款以及提高所有來源的非利息收入來專注於我們的存款組合。

Our Commercial Bank segment continued to deliver strong loan growth, driven by several of our specialized industry verticals, primarily in project financing for energy and data centers.

在我們的幾個專業垂直行業（主要是能源和資料中心的專案融資）的推動下，我們的商業銀行部門繼續實現強勁的貸款成長。

CRE volume remains challenged, driven by the higher-for-longer interest rate environment.

受長期較高利率環境的推動，商業房地產交易量仍面臨挑戰。

Deal volume is expected to remain muted during the second half of the year.

預計下半年交易量將維持低迷。

While portfolio stress is expected to remain above historic levels in Equipment Finance, we expect loss rates to decline in the second half of the year and into 2025.

儘管設備融資的投資組合壓力預計仍將高於歷史水平，但我們預計今年下半年至 2025 年損失率將下降。

For a production standpoint, we expect this segment to continue to benefit first from liquidity concerns, bringing the market rates on a greater number of transactions into our target range, and second, from a focus on originating larger, higher-quality transactions.

從生產角度來看，我們預計該細分市場將繼續受益於流動性問題，使更多交易的市場利率進入我們的目標範圍，其次受益於對規模更大、品質更高的交易的關注。

Funding for the Commercial Bank is aided by our nationwide online direct bank with more than 700,000 core deposit accounts.

商業銀行的資金由我們全國性的線上直銷銀行提供支持，該銀行擁有超過 70 萬個核心存款帳戶。

We plan to continue to use the direct bank as a lever to grow core deposits in the current environment, where pricing pressure and competition remain high.

我們計劃在當前定價壓力和競爭仍然嚴峻的環境下，繼續利用直銷銀行作為增加核心存款的槓桿。

Turning to SVB Commercial, we achieved quarter-over-quarter loan growth driven by high-quality loans in our global fund banking or capital call lending business.

轉向 SVB Commercial，在全球基金銀行或資本催繳貸款業務的優質貸款的推動下，我們實現了季度環比貸款增長。

The uptick in loans reflects both the increased level of investment activity, driving up utilization, and global fund banking's continued success in winning the fund banking business of active VC and PC investors.

貸款的增加反映了投資活動水準的增加，推動了利用率的提高，以及全球基金銀行業務在贏得活躍風險投資和個人投資者的基金銀行業務方面的持續成功。

Encouragingly, we also witnessed a quarter-over-quarter increase in SVB Commercial total client funds for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021.

令人鼓舞的是，我們也見證了 SVB Commercial 客戶資金總額自 2021 年第四季以來首次出現環比成長。

SVB Commercial deposits increased for the first time since the first quarter of 2022.

SVB 商業存款自 2022 年第一季以來首次增加。

These increases were driven by a slight improvement in the macroeconomic environment and client acquisition.

這些成長是由宏觀經濟環境和客戶獲取的輕微改善所推動的。

As we look ahead, it's too early to call an innovation economy turnaround, despite increasing deal counts and encouraging investment trends.

展望未來，儘管交易數量不斷增加且投資趨勢令人鼓舞，但現在稱創新經濟好轉還為時過早。

We are encouraged that the rebound will be significant, as high levels of VC dry powder remain a strong catalyst for future growth.

我們感到鼓舞的是，反彈將是顯著的，因為高水平的 VC 乾粉仍然是未來成長的強大催化劑。

We expect that the positive trends that we saw in the second quarter could continue to result in gradual improvement in the second half of this year, but remain guarded about the absolute levels of deposit growth, given the continued headwinds in the environment.

我們預計第二季看到的正面趨勢可能會繼續導致今年下半年逐步改善，但鑑於環境持續不利，我們仍對存款成長的絕對水準保持謹慎。

Our SVB team remains the bank of choice for the innovation economy.

我們的 SVB 團隊仍然是創新經濟的首選銀行。

Moving on to page 8, our strategic priorities have not changed.

翻到第 8 頁，我們的策略重點沒有改變。

Given our growth over the past few years, we have been focused on maturing our risk management framework and overall regulatory environment.

鑑於我們過去幾年的成長，我們一直致力於改善我們的風險管理框架和整體監管環境。

We have made significant enhancements, not only to meet category IV large financial institution requirements, but to develop those capabilities in ways that are scalable through category III expectations.

我們進行了重大改進，不僅是為了滿足 IV 類大型金融機構的要求，而且是為了透過 III 類期望可擴展的方式開發這些能力。

To conclude, we're continuing to see positive momentum in our businesses.

總而言之，我們的業務繼續呈現積極勢頭。

While we recognize uncertainty remains in the current macro economic environment, we are committed to deepening customer relationships, prudently growing core deposits and loans, and allocating capital.

儘管我們認識到當前宏觀經濟環境仍存在不確定性，但我們致力於深化客戶關係、審慎成長核心存貸款、配置資本。

We remain in a position of strength, and I'm excited about the opportunities ahead of us in 2024 and beyond.

我們仍然處於優勢地位，我對 2024 年及以後我們面臨的機會感到興奮。

Craig, I'll turn it over to you.

克雷格，我會把它交給你。

Thank you, Frank, and all of you joining us today.

謝謝弗蘭克和今天加入我們的所有人。

My comments will be anchored to key takeaway found on Page 10.

我的評論將基於第 10 頁的關鍵要點。

Pages 11 through 28 provide more detaails underlying our second-quarter results.

第 11 頁至第 28 頁提供了我們第二季業績的更多詳細資訊。

I'll start with the 3.5 billion share repurchase plan that Frank just mentioned.

我先從弗蘭克剛才提到的35億股回購計畫開始。

Using capital to support organic growth remain our top priority, but strong earnings have led to an excess capital position.

利用資本支持有機成長仍然是我們的首要任務，但強勁的獲利導致資本部位過剩。

Share repurchases provide an opportunity for us to return capital to our shareholders and to more efficient capital levels over time.

股票回購為我們提供了向股東返還資本並隨著時間的推移提高資本效率的機會。

We managed capital ratios excluding any benefit from the share loss agreement and all planned capital activities are assessed in this context.

我們管理的資本比率不包括股權損失協議帶來的任何利益，所有計劃的資本活動均在此背景下進行評估。

We intend to supplement organic capital use with methodical share repurchases, with the ultimate goal of managing our adjusted CET1 ratio down to the 10.5% range by the end of 2025.

我們打算透過有條不紊的股票回購來補充有機資本的使用，最終目標是到 2025 年底將調整後的 CET1 比率控制在 10.5% 的範圍內。

This repurchase plan puts us on that path.

這項回購計劃使我們走上了這條道路。

Moving forward, we will assess capital management strategies based on balance sheet growth expectations, earnings trajectory, and economic and regulatory environment.

展望未來，我們將根據資產負債表成長預期、獲利軌跡以及經濟和監管環境評估資本管理策略。

This will be reflected in our next capital plan, which will be completed in the first quarter of 2025 k.

這將反映在我們的下一個資本計劃中，該計劃將於 2025 年第一季完成。

To the extent that capital accretion from earnings continues to outpace organic growth, we expect share repurchases to continue beyond this plan.

如果獲利帶來的資本增值持續超過有機成長，我們預期股票回購將繼續超越該計畫。

Turning to second quarter results, all of our return metrics exceeded our expectations.

談到第二季的業績，我們所有的回報指標都超出了我們的預期。

ROE and ROA, adjusted for notable items, for 14.05% and 1.39%,b respectively.

經重要項目調整後，ROE 和 ROA 分別為 14.05% 和 1.39%，b。

Headline net interest income increased slightly over the linked quarter, as higher interest income was partially offset by lower accretion and higher

整體淨利息收入較上一季略有成長，因為較高的利息收入被較低的成長和較高的利息收入部分抵銷。

[deposit costs].

[存款費用]。

While modest, the increase in headline net interest income followed three quarters of sequential decline for interest expense on deposits but increasing at a faster pace than interest income.

雖然整體淨利息收入增幅不大，但在存款利息支出連續三個季度下降之後，但成長速度快於利息收入。

During the second quarter, while interest expense on deposits increased, the pace slowed.

第二季度，存款利息支出雖然增加，但成長放緩。

Given the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, we continued to mitigate a portion of our asset sensitivity profile by moving an additional $5 billion of cash into short duration securities in the investment portfolio.

考慮到聯準會降息的可能性，我們透過將額外的 50 億美元現金轉移到投資組合中的短期證券中，繼續降低部分資產敏感性。

Headline NIM contracted modestly by 3 basis points to 3.64%.

整體淨利差小幅收縮 3 個基點至 3.64%。

Ex accretion, NIM increased by 1 basis points to 3.36%, signaling that deposit pressures, while still present, continued to stabilize and were more than offset by the benefit of strong loan origination.

扣除增值後，淨利差增加 1 個基點至 3.36%，表明存款壓力雖然仍然存在，但繼續穩定，並被強勁貸款發放的好處所抵消。

Before the second quarter, NIM ex accretion had declined in the previous three quarters.

在第二季之前，前三個季度的淨利差除增加有所下降。

Adjusted noninterest income was slightly better than expected, due to higher client investment fees, aided by an increase in average balances at SVB Commecial, off-balance-sheet client funds, offsetting the expected decrease in net rental income on rail operating lease equipment.

調整後的非利息收入略優於預期，原因是客戶投資費用增加，加上SVB Commecial、表外客戶資金的平均餘額增加，抵銷了鐵路經營租賃設備淨租金收入的預期下降。

Rental income was negatively impacted by a return to more normalized maintenance expenses, in line with expectations we laid out last quarter.

租金收入受到維護費用恢復正常化的負面影響，這與我們上季度的預期一致。

Adjusted noninterest expense came in at the lower end of our guidance range, increasing sequentially by approximately 1%.

調整後的非利息支出處於我們指導範圍的下限，季增約 1%。

Expense growth was concentrated in equipment expenses related to accelerated depreciation on assets that will no longer be used following the SVB acquisition and favorable variances in prior periods related to reimbursement from third parties.

費用成長集中在與 SVB 收購後將不再使用的資產加速折舊相關的設備費用以及與第三方報銷相關的前期有利差異。

Second quarter expenses also reflected higher marketing expense, as we increased focus on retaining clients in the direct bank channel to help offset extended maturity in their time deposits and in brokered deposits.

第二季的費用也反映出行銷費用的增加，因為我們更重視保留直接銀行管道的客戶，以幫助抵消定期存款和經紀存款期限延長的影響。

We continue to execute on cost savings from the acquisition and maintain vigilance on the overall expense management.

我們繼續透過收購節省成本，並對整體費用管理保持警惕。

We are now close to achieving the lower end of our cost-saving estimate and anticipate achieving it by the end of the year.

我們現在已接近實現成本節約預估的下限，並預計在今年底實現。

Credit continued to stabilize during the quarter.

本季信貸持續穩定。

Net charge-offs of $132 million or 0.38% were on the low end of our guidance range and non-performing loans remained relatively stable.

淨沖銷額為 1.32 億美元，即 0.38%，處於我們指導範圍的低端，不良貸款保持相對穩定。

While losses increased modestly over the linked quarter, they were largely in the same portfolios as previous quarters, and we noted no emerging problem outside of those pressure points.

雖然損失在相關季度略有增加，但它們基本上與前幾季相同的投資組合，我們注意到除了這些壓力點之外沒有出現任何問題。

Encouragingly, while we saw continued stress in the small ticket leasing portfolio and the investor-dependent portfolio, we saw modest improvement in our general office portfolio.

令人鼓舞的是，雖然我們看到小額租賃投資組合和依賴投資者的投資組合持續面臨壓力，但我們的普通辦公室投資組合略有改善。

While this is a good sign, given the continued focus on CRE and particularly CRE office, we do not believe this is indicative of any shifts in current stresses in that portfolio, and really more of a function of loan resolution timing.

雖然這是一個好兆頭，但考慮到人們對商業房地產（尤其是商業房地產辦公室）的持續關注，我們認為這並不表明該投資組合當前壓力發生任何變化，而實際上更多的是貸款解決時間的函數。

We continue to be well reserved, with an allowance of 11.84% on the commercial bank office portfolio, covering second quarter net charge-offs two times.

我們繼續保持充足儲備，對商業銀行辦公室投資組合進行了11.84%的準備金，涵蓋了第二季兩次淨沖銷。

Overall, the allowance ratio decreased 6 basis points to 1.22%.

整體而言，撥備率下降6個基點至1.22%。

The most significant factor related to a mix shift from recent growth in the global fund banking portfolio, which carries a low reserve percentage.

最重要的因素與全球基金銀行業務組合近期成長的混合轉變有關，該組合的準備金率較低。

The decrease was also driven by lower specific reserves on individually evaluated loans, reasonably consistent credit quality trends, and positive changes in macroeconomic forecasts.

這一下降的原因還包括單獨評估貸款的特定準備金下降、信貸品質趨勢相當一致以及宏觀經濟預測的積極變化。

All these factors were partially offset by an increase in loan volume.

所有這些因素都被貸款量的增加部分抵消。

While the allowance did decline this quarter, we feel good about our overall reserve coverage, as well as coverage on the portfolios experiencing stress.

雖然本季準備金確實有所下降，但我們對整體準備金覆蓋率以及承受壓力的投資組合的覆蓋率感到滿意。

Moving to the balance sheet, loans grew about $4 billion over the linked quarter, an annualized growth rate of 11.8%.

轉向資產負債表，上一季貸款成長約 40 億美元，年化成長率為 11.8%。

Growth was led by a $2.1 million increase in SVB Commercial, driven by the global fund banking and capital call lending business.

在全球基金銀行和資本通知貸款業務的推動下，SVB Commercial 成長了 210 萬美元，帶動了成長。

These increases were partially offset by an expected decline in technology and healthcare banking, given continued payoff and increased competition.

由於持續的回報和競爭的加劇，這些成長被技術和醫療保健銀行業務的預期下降所部分抵消。

The General Bank and Commercial Bank segment also grew by $1.5 billion and $386 million, respectively.

普通銀行和商業銀行部門也分別成長了 15 億美元和 3.86 億美元。

While the broader industry continues to experience tepid loan growth, we continue to see broad-based expansion across our business segments, as Frank mentioned earlier.

儘管更廣泛的行業繼續經歷不溫不火的貸款成長，但正如弗蘭克之前提到的，我們繼續看到我們的業務部門廣泛擴張。

Turning to the right-hand side of the balance sheet, deposits grew at an annualized rate of 4% or by $1.5 billion due to strong core deposit growth in SVB Commercial and in the General Bank.

轉向資產負債表的右側，由於 SVB Commercial 和 General Bank 的核心存款成長強勁，存款年化成長率為 4%，即 15 億美元。

In SVB Commercial, we saw deposits grow by $1.9 million.

在 SVB Commercial 中，我們的存款增加了 190 萬美元。

A $329 million increase in the General Bank was driven by our continued emphasis on expanding relationships with current customers and attracting new ones.

總銀行業務增加了 3.29 億美元，這是由於我們持續強調擴大與現有客戶的關係並吸引新客戶。

These increases were partially offset by expected declines in broker deposits and in direct bank deposits of $527 million and $145 million, respectively.

這些成長被經紀人存款和直接銀行存款預計分別下降 5.27 億美元和 1.45 億美元所部分抵銷。

The decline in the direct bank is due to a $1.9 billion decrease in time deposits, partially offset by $1.8 billion increase in savings accounts.

直接銀行業務的下降是由於定期存款減少 19 億美元，部分被儲蓄帳戶增加 18 億美元所抵銷。

Given pricing on CDs and the expectation that rates will decline in second half 2024, we made the strategic decision to let these roll off and will continue to grow core deposits to offset this decline.

鑑於 CD 的定價以及利率將在 2024 年下半年下降的預期，我們做出了讓這些存款滾存的戰略決定，並將繼續增加核心存款以抵消這一下降。

Moving to capital, our CET1 ratio declined by 11 basis points sequentially, ending the quarter at 13.33%.

轉向資本，我們的 CET1 比率環比下降 11 個基點，本季末降至 13.33%。

This was driven by a continued decline in the benefit provided by the share loss agreement, which added approximately 85 basis points to the ratio this quarter, down 22 basis points from the first quarter.

這是由於股權損失協議帶來的收益持續下降，本季該比率增加了約 85 個基點，較第一季下降了 22 個基點。

The CET1 ratio, excluding the benefits of the share loss agreement, increased 11 basis points from the linked quarter as earnings growth again outpaced organic growth.

由於獲利成長再次超過有機成長，CET1 比率（不包括股權損失協議的收益）較上一季上升 11 個基點。

I will close on page 28 with our third quarter 2024 and full year outlook.

我將在第 28 頁結束我們對 2024 年第三季和全年的展望。

On loans, we moved our expectations higher, given the starting point at the beginning of the third quarter and solid momentum in our pipeline.

在貸款方面，鑑於第三季初的起點和我們管道的強勁勢頭，我們提高了預期。

We anticipate high single digit annualized percentage growth in the third quarter, driven broadly across our business segments.

我們預計第三季的年化百分比將出現高個位數成長，這將廣泛推動我們的業務部門。

We anticipate SVB Commercial will benefit from growth in the global fund banking business, where we see success and client outreach.

我們預計 SVB Commercial 將受益於全球基金銀行業務的成長，我們在該領域取得了成功並擴大了客戶範圍。

While the second quarter benefited from increased activity in commercial real estate funds, M&A and debt activity, the market continues to be challenged and remains somewhat unpredictable.

儘管第二季受益於商業房地產基金、併購和債務活動的增加，但市場仍面臨挑戰，並且仍然有些不可預測。

While we do expect to see a modest increase in VC investments compared to 2023, we believe our growth will continue to be pressured by headwinds in the private equity and venture capital markets.

雖然我們確實預計創投與 2023 年相比將略有成長，但我們相信我們的成長將繼續受到私募股權和創投市場逆風的壓力。

We also expect continued growth in our business and commercial loan portfolio within the General Bank.

我們也預期總銀行內的業務和商業貸款組合將持續成長。

In the Commercial Bank, we anticipate our specialty vertical will be key contributors to continued loan growth.

在商業銀行，我們預計我們的專業垂直領域將成為貸款持續成長的關鍵貢獻者。

We also continue to expand our middle market banking business and expect to see positive momentum from these strategic moves.

我們也繼續擴大我們的中間市場銀行業務，並期望從這些策略舉措中看到積極的勢頭。

Looking at the full year, we expect loans to end in the $143 billion to $146 billion range or mid to high single digits percentage growth on a year-over-year basis.

展望全年，我們預計貸款將在 1,430 億美元至 1,460 億美元之間，或年比中高個位數百分比成長。

We anticipate this growth to be concentrated across all three banking segments.

我們預計這種增長將集中在所有三個銀行部門。

We expect deposits to be up slightly in the $152 billion to $154 billion range in the third quarter due to growth in the General Bank.

由於總銀行的成長，我們預計第三季存款將小幅成長，介於 1520 億美元至 1540 億美元之間。

We expect relatively flat balances in SVB Commercial due to continued cash burn and the still muted fund raising environment.

由於持續的現金消耗和仍然低迷的融資環境，我們預計 SVB Commercial 的餘額將相對持平。

We anticipate growth in the branch network as we benefit from increasing our customer base by building deposits through successful execution of our organic growth and relationship banking strategy.

我們預計分行網路將會成長，因為我們透過成功執行有機成長和關係銀行策略來累積存款，從而擴大客戶群，從而受益。

For the full year, we anticipate deposits in the $153 billion to $155 billion range, primarily related to growth in the General Bank previously discussed, flat to modestly increasing balances in SVB commercial, supplemented by growth in the direct bank if needed.

我們預計全年存款將在1,530 億美元至1,550 億美元之間，主要與之前討論的綜合銀行的增長有關，SVB 商業銀行的餘額持平或小幅增長，並在需要時輔以直接銀行的增長。

We anticipate the Direct Bank remains flat to modestly higher through the end of the year, as expiring time deposits are offset by money market and savings growth.

我們預計，到今年年底，直接銀行業務將保持持平或小幅走高，因為即將到期的定期存款被貨幣市場和儲蓄成長所抵消。

This is in line with our strategy of reducing higher-cost CDs.

這符合我們減少高成本 CD 的策略。

In the Direct Bank, we have the option to bring down rates quicker should the Fed cut cycle be more aggressive than anticipated, while providing a strong source of insured customer consumer deposits in our funding base.

在直接銀行中，如果聯準會降息週期比預期更加激進，我們可以選擇更快地降低利率，同時在我們的資金基礎中提供強大的受保客戶消費者存款來源。

The current implied forward curve indicates a 98% probability of two rate cuts in the second half of this year.

目前的隱含遠期曲線表明，今年下半年兩次降息的可能性為 98%。

Our interest rate forecast covers a range of one to three rate cuts, with the effective Fed funds rate declining from 5.50% currently to a range of 4.75% to 5.25% by the end of the year.

我們的利率預測涵蓋一到三次降息，有效聯邦基金利率將從目前的 5.50% 降至年底的 4.75% 至 5.25%。

These projections do include the impact of planned share repurchase activity in the back half of 2024.

這些預測確實包括 2024 年下半年計畫的股票回購活動的影響。

For the third quarter, if we get one rate cut, we expect headline net interest income to be relatively flat with the second quarter, given that our forecast calls for the cut in September.

對於第三季度，如果我們降息一次，我們預計整體淨利息收入將與第二季度相對持平，因為我們預測將在 9 月降息。

We expect that lower accretion, slightly higher deposit costs and a slightly lower loan yield will be offset by higher investment securities yields.

我們預計，較低的增值、略高的存款成本和略低的貸款收益率將被投資證券收益率的上升所抵消。

For the full year, we expect headline net interest income in the range of $7.2 billion to $7.3 billion, up from our previous guide of $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion, as well as simple rate cuts and the updated forecast occurring later in 2024.

就全年而言，我們預計整體淨利息收入將在72 億美元至73 億美元之間，高於我們之前的71 億美元至73 億美元指導，同時還會進行簡單的降息和2024 年晚些時候的更新預測。

In either case, we continue to project loan accretion of just over $500 million for the year, over a $200 million decline from 2023, as [loans account] from the shorter portfolio will have been fully recognized.

無論哪種情況，我們都繼續預計今年貸款增量將略高於 5 億美元，比 2023 年減少 2 億美元以上，因為較短投資組合的[貸款帳戶]將得到充分認可。

On credit losses, while we experienced positive trends in recent quarters, we do anticipate continued elevated net charge-offs in the investor dependent, general office and equipment finance portfolios.

關於信貸損失，雖然我們在最近幾季經歷了積極的趨勢，但我們確實預計依賴投資者的一般辦公室和設備融資投資組合的淨沖銷將繼續增加。

We anticipate third quarter net charge-offs in the 35 basis point to 45 basis points range, but are lowering the full year range to 35 basis points to 40 basis points given lower losses during the first half of the year.

我們預計第三季淨沖銷將在 35 個基點至 45 個基點範圍內，但鑑於上半年損失較低，我們將全年範圍下調至 35 個基點至 40 個基點。

We do caution that many of our portfolios in the Commercial Bank and SVB Commercial have large hold sizes and one or two of these loans deteriorating unexpectedly could influence this range.

我們確實警告說，我們在商業銀行和 SVB Commercial 的許多投資組合都擁有大量持有規模，其中一兩筆貸款的意外惡化可能會影響這一範圍。

In commercial real estate, higher-for-longer rates continue to have an effect on value, being felt most heavily in the general office sector, where market liquidity [before] refinancings remains scarce.

在商業房地產中，較高的長期利率繼續對價值產生影響，在一般辦公大樓領域感受最深，再融資之前的市場流動性仍然稀缺。

We expect these market dynamics will continue to elevate losses within this portfolio for the remainder of 2024.

我們預計這些市場動態將在 2024 年剩餘時間內繼續增加該投資組合的損失。

We're seeing some green shoots in the investor dependent portfolio and we believe the continued market optimism and a greater consensus on valuation is an encouraging sign that should help reduce some pressure.

我們看到依賴投資者的投資組合出現了一些萌芽，我們相信持續的市場樂觀情緒和對估值的更大共識是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，應該有助於減輕一些壓力。

Still, given the uncertainty in the innovation economy, we do expect continued stress throughout 2024.

儘管如此，鑑於創新經濟的不確定性，我們預計 2024 年壓力將持續存在。

Moving to adjusted noninterest income, we expect the third quarter to be materially in line to down low single digits from the linked quarter.

至於調整後的非利息收入，我們預計第三季將比上一季大幅下降個位數。

We expect full year adjusted noninterest income to be in the range of $1.85 billion to $1.9 billion, which is slightly higher than our previous guidance.

我們預計全年調整後非利息收入將在 18.5 億美元至 19 億美元之間，略高於我們先前的指引。

This is driven by our rail outlook and we expect a continuation of healthy fundamental trends in the near term from a supply-driven recovery, which has generated strong demand for existing railcars, resulting in a stronger-for-longer scenario.

這是由我們的鐵路前景推動的，我們預計供應驅動的復甦將在短期內延續健康的基本趨勢，這對現有鐵路車產生了強勁的需求，從而導致長期強勁的前景。

We are also expecting higher fee income on service charges resulting from higher lending-related fees as loan volumes continue to be strong.

我們也預計，隨著貸款量持續強勁，貸款相關費用增加，服務費收入也會增加。

Moving to expenses, we expect a modest increase from the second quarter, due to marketing expenses to help replace time deposit runoff in the Direct Bank as well as professional fees and temporary manpower as we ramp up project spend related to a few regulatory items.

至於費用，我們預計第二季將出現小幅增長，原因是幫助取代直接銀行定期存款徑流的營銷費用，以及隨著我們增加與一些監管項目相關的項目支出而產生的專業費用和臨時人力。

Furthermore, as Frank mentioned, earlier, we continue to focus on building out our risk and technology capability and continue to make some strategic hires on these themes, resulting in higher salaries and benefit expenses.

此外，正如弗蘭克之前提到的，我們繼續專注於增強我們的風險和技術能力，並繼續就這些主題進行一些策略性招聘，從而導致更高的工資和福利費用。

All of this will be partially offset by continued acquisition synergies, which I spoke to earlier.

所有這些都將被持續的收購協同效應所部分抵消，我之前談到過這一點。

We expect to achieve the lower 25% band in our [comps base sold] by the end of 2024, but these savings will be offset by continued [segment ability] build-out for regulatory [segment ability] as well as costs related to the strategic priorities to maximize growth in our core lines of business and optimize our systems and processes.

我們預計到 2024 年底，我們的[已售比較基礎]將實現 25% 的較低水平，但這些節省將被監管[細分能力]的持續[細分能力]建設以及與戰略重點是最大化我們核心業務的成長並優化我們的系統和流程。

Our adjusted efficiency ratio is expected to remain in the low 50% range in 2024.

預計到 2024 年，我們的調整後效率將維持在 50% 的低水準範圍內。

Longer term, as our net interest margin compresses and we continue to make investments in new areas that will help us scale efficiently in the future and be ready for Category III status when we cross that threshold.

從長遠來看，隨著我們的淨利差壓縮，我們將繼續在新領域進行投資，這將有助於我們在未來有效擴展規模，並為跨過這一門檻時進入第三類狀態做好準備。

Looking at the full year, we anticipate adjusted noninterest expense to be in the range of $4.65 billion to $4.7 billion, in line with our previous guidance.

展望全年，我們預計調整後的非利息支出將在 46.5 億美元至 47 億美元之間，與我們先前的指引一致。

For both the third quarter and full year 2024, we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 27% to 28%, which is exclusive of any discrete items.

對於 2024 年第三季和全年，我們預計稅率將在 27% 至 28% 範圍內，這不包括任何離散項目。

In summary, we are very pleased with our performance this quarter and we'll begin our share repurchase plan shortly.

總之，我們對本季的表現非常滿意，我們很快就會開始股票回購計畫。

As Frank's comments earlier indicate, we will continue to grow in a prudent manner and allocate capital in alignment with our long-term focus and strong risk management framework.

正如弗蘭克早些時候的評論所表明的那樣，我們將繼續以審慎的方式成長，並根據我們的長期重點和強大的風險管理框架來分配資本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯。

Steven, please go ahead.

史蒂文，請繼續。

Your line is open.

您的線路已開通。

Good morning.

早安.

I want to start on the stock buyback, and I heard you that you want to get to the 10.5% CET1 target by the end of 2025.

我想從股票回購開始，我聽說您希望在 2025 年底前達到 10.5% CET1 的目標。

By our math, $3.5 billion through 2025 would leave you above 10.5%.

根據我們的計算，到 2025 年，35 億美元將使您的比例超過 10.5%。

Just curious, by your math, does $3.5 billion of buybacks through the end of 2025 get you to 10.5% CET1?

只是好奇，根據您的計算，到 2025 年底，35 億美元的回購是否能讓您達到 10.5% 的 CET1？

Steve, this plan puts us on a path to CET1 in the 10.5% range by the end of 2025 and we anticipate the plan will be executed over the next four to five quarters, and we will be updating our capital plan in the first half of next year.

Steve，該計劃使我們能夠在 2025 年底之前達到 10.5% 範圍內的 CET1，我們預計該計劃將在未來四到五個季度內執行，我們將在 2025 年上半年更新我們的資本計劃明年。

So you're right.

所以你是對的。

And the ratios would be elevated, all things being equal right now.

在目前一切條件相同的情況下，比率將會提高。

But to the extent that earnings accretion continues to outpace organic growth, we do contemplate another share repurchase plan in the back half of 2025.

但如果獲利成長持續超過自然成長，我們確實會考慮在 2025 年下半年實施另一項股票回購計畫。

So yes, they would be -- if we stopped here, they would be there, but we are giving ourselves room for organic growth.

所以，是的，他們會 - 如果我們停在這裡，他們也會在那裡，但我們正在給自己有機增長的空間。

We will assess our capital plan and if we are again accreting earnings faster than organic growth, we've contemplated another plan to guide us down to that 10.5% range by the end of 2025.

我們將評估我們的資本計劃，如果我們的獲利成長速度再次快於有機成長，我們會考慮另一個計劃，引導我們在 2025 年底前降至 10.5% 的範圍。

Got it.

知道了。

And just given the valuation of the stock here, how do you think about front-loading the buybacks?

考慮到該股票的估值，您如何看待提前回購？

Like do think it will be pretty even?

你認為它會很均勻嗎？

I mean, I know the incentive systems tangible book value growth based.

我的意思是，我知道激勵制度是基於有形的帳面價值成長。

What are your thoughts on that?

您對此有何看法？

Well, we would obviously plan to front-load, obviously given that -- especially if we sustain stock price to continue to increase over time as our tangible book value increases.

嗯，我們顯然會計劃提前加載，顯然考慮到這一點——特別是如果我們隨著有形賬面價值的增加而維持股價隨著時間的推移繼續上漲。

So our plan is methodical, but does have a heavier emphasis on the last half of 2024.

所以我們的計劃是有條不紊的，但確實更注重 2024 年下半年。

So it's really not a straight line, but it is expected to occur over the next four to five quarters.

所以這確實不是一條直線，但預計會在接下來的四到五個季度內發生。

Got you.

明白你了。

Okay.

好的。

And then for my final question, I'm curious.

對於我的最後一個問題，我很好奇。

So the NII outlook, we know there positives and negatives, right?

那麼 NII 前景，我們知道有正面的一面也有負面的一面，對嗎？

Growth is -- and loan growth is helping NII and you have purchase accounting accretion and now we have rate cuts in the forecast 2Q 2024, basically implying the same for 3Q and 4Q.

成長是－貸款成長正在幫助國家資訊基礎設施，你可以購買會計增值，現在我們預測 2024 年第二季降息，基本上意味著第三季和第四季的利率相同。

And Craig, if I look at consensus for 2025, it basically has the $1.8 billion sort of being the run rate for next, call it, six quarters or so.

克雷格，如果我看看 2025 年的共識，它基本上是 18 億美元，相當於接下來六個季度左右的運行率。

I'm just curious, given the strategies you're looking at, you're talking about maybe mitigating some of the asset sensitivity.

我只是很好奇，考慮到您正在考慮的策略，您所說的話可能會減輕一些資產敏感性。

Given all the puts and takes, do you see that as reasonable that NII sort of trends just flattish over the next several quarters?

考慮到所有的看跌期權和看跌期權，您認為 NII 趨勢在接下來的幾季持平是否合理？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, if we're looking atthe exit margin in the fourth quarter, with zero rate cuts we would be up -- and this is net interest income ex accretion.

好吧，如果我們關注第四季度的退出利潤率，在零利率下調的情況下，我們的利率將會上升——這是扣除增值的淨利息收入。

We would be up low to mid single digits with zero rate cuts.

在零降息的情況下，我們的利率將上升到低至中個位數。

With one, we would be up low single digit.

有了一個，我們的業績就會低個位數。

And with three, we would be up low single digits.

有了三個，我們的成績就會低個位數。

Fast forward to 2025 exit with zero cuts, we would be up mid high single digits.

快進到 2025 年零削減退出，我們將實現中高個位數成長。

With one cut and four next year, we would be up low single digits.

如果明年有一次削減和四次削減，我們的業績將會上升到低個位數。

And then if we have three this year and four next year, we would be down low to mid-single digits, in terms of net interest income.

然後，如果我們今年有三個，明年有四個，那麼就淨利息收入而言，我們將降至低至中個位數。

Got it.

知道了。

So just so if I understand, so if we get two -- follow the forward curve, which is two this year and four next year, where does that leave NII?

所以，如果我理解的話，如果我們得到兩個——遵循遠期曲線，今年是兩個，明年是四個，NII 會在哪裡？

It leaves NII down low mid single digits from the fourth quarter 2024 exit to the fourth quarter of 2025 exit.

從 2024 年第四季退出到 2025 年第四季退出，NII 下降了中低個位數。

Got it.

知道了。

And that's ex accretion

這是前吸積

(multiple speakers).

（多個發言者）。

Yep, got it.

是的，明白了。

With accretion, it would be down mid single digits (multiple speakers) scenario.

隨著增加，它將下降到中間個位數（多個發言者）的情況。

Yep, got it, thank you.

是的，明白了，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just wanted to talk about the capital levels and kind of what the lower bound may be as the buyback gets executed, and would you revisit that as next year unfolds?

只是想談談資本水準以及回購執行時的下限可能是多少，您會在明年重新審視這個問題嗎？

What we would anticipate if we just executed this plan, CET1 ratio in the mid 11 ex loss share.

如果我們剛剛執行這個計劃，我們會預期 CET1 比率在 11 年中期除損失份額。

But we would intend to, if that's the case and our capital plan holds, we would intend to execute another plan and manage those ratios down to the 10.5% level at the end of 2025.

但如果情況確實如此且我們的資本計劃成立，我們將打算執行另一項計劃，並在 2025 年底將這些比率控制在 10.5% 的水平。

Great.

偉大的。

And the timing for now -- for today's authorization is to do this in the next 12 months, Craig?

現在的時間安排 - 今天的授權是在未來 12 個月內完成這項工作，克雷格？

Or would it be really 18?

還是真的是18歲嗎？

Well, we're looking at four to five quarters in our pro formas.

嗯，我們在備考中考慮了四到五個季度。

Tom, you want to comment on that yet?

湯姆，你想對此發表評論嗎？

Yes.

是的。

As Craig mentioned, we're slightly front-loaded in the plan, but still trying to space it out over sort of the next four or five quarters and wrap it up and really get on that large bank capital planning cycle and sort of reassess again first half of next year, and then hopefully come back with a new plan.

正如克雷格所提到的，我們在計劃中稍微提前了一些，但仍然試圖在接下來的四到五個季度內將其間隔開來，並將其總結出來，真正進入大型銀行資本規劃週期並再次進行重新評估明年上半年，然後希望能帶著新的計畫回來。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And just a quick follow-up on the venture capital space, and do you see any improvement there as you look through the next few quarters?

快速跟進風險投資領域，在接下來的幾個季度中，您是否看到了任何改進？

(Mark Hazard) did you hear that question?

（馬克·阿扎爾）你聽到這個問題了嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Happy to take that.

很高興接受。

This is

這是

[Mark Hazard].

[馬克·阿扎爾]。

As we've alluded to, it remains a bit mixed in terms of the outlook for venture investment.

正如我們所提到的，創投的前景仍然有點複雜。

We saw a nice uptick this quarter at $55.6 billion, which was initially encouraging.

本季我們看到了 556 億美元的大幅成長，這最初令人鼓舞。

You peel that number apart, there were two very big ones, big investments in there that net of those makes for a quarter that looks a lot like 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.

你把這個數字分開來看，有兩個非常大的投資，扣除這些投資後，這個季度看起來很像 2023 年和 2024 年第一季。

And so there's certainly a lot of optimism out there, have not yet seen it translate, and it's really unclear if we'll see that over the next couple of quarters at this time.

因此，肯定有很多樂觀情緒，但還沒有看到它的轉化，而且目前還不清楚我們是否會在接下來的幾個季度看到這種情況。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I wanted to touch on the loan to deposit ratio.

我想談談貸存比。

It did tick up here a little bit in the quarter on some pretty nice loan growth.

由於一些相當不錯的貸款成長，本季確實有所回升。

Just I know you guys have a long-term goal to drive that lower.

我只知道你們有一個長期目標來降低這個水平。

If you SVB. kind of returned to form from the 165% level currently, obviously that would go a long way.

如果你是SVB。從目前 165% 的水平恢復到正常狀態，顯然這將有很長的路要走。

Just wondering, can you comment on how the SVB. depositors are behaving, like your ability to drive that loan to deposit ratio back to what was a very deposit-rich vertical and help you achieve these targets?

只是想知道，您能評論一下 SVB 的表現嗎？儲戶的行為是否像您將貸存比推回存款非常豐富的垂直方向並幫助您實現這些目標的能力？

Yes, I'll start and let Tom maybe amplify here.

是的，我會開始並讓湯姆在這裡詳細說明。

We started the [acquisition] around 99% loan to deposit.

我們開始[收購]約 99% 的貸款存款。

It did tick up from 90% to 92%.

它確實從 90% 上升到 92%。

So we're making really good progress getting it to our sort of net 80% target range.

因此，我們在達到 80% 的淨目標範圍方面取得了非常好的進展。

And we feel confident that over the next 3.5 years, as we work down this purchase money note from the FDIC that we can achieve that range.

我們相信，在未來 3.5 年內，隨著我們逐步減少 FDIC 的購買資金票據，我們能夠實現這一範圍。

Tom, do you have any comment there?

湯姆，你有什麼意見嗎？

The only thing I'd add on sort of the SVB side, we're obviously encouraged with the deposit growth during the quarter.

對於 SVB 方面，我唯一要補充的是，我們顯然對本季的存款成長感到鼓舞。

That being said, we're looking holistically at the client relationship there, making sure we put them in the right product, [VC] off balance sheet products when they're better suited for the clients.

話雖這麼說，我們正在全面審視那裡的客戶關係，確保我們將它們放入正確的產品中，[風險投資]當它們更適合客戶時將其置於資產負債表外產品中。

So we're not [binarily] focused on the deposit growth there and also looking to -- Craig mentioned earlier General Bank to drove a portion of that deposit growth

因此，我們不[二元地]關注那裡的存款增長，並且也希望 - 克雷格之前提到通用銀行推動部分存款增長

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Keep in mind, given that SVB deposits can be sort of transitory, especially in this environment, the Direct Bank is a lever we can pull as well.

請記住，鑑於 SVB 存款可能是暫時的，特別是在這種環境下，直接銀行也是我們可以拉動的槓桿。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just my follow-up, on the -- you guys mentioned that you've moved $5 billion into the bond portfolio to sort of dampen the asset sensitivity profile.

然後我的後續行動是——你們提到你們已經將 50 億美元轉移到債券投資組合中，以某種程度抑制資產敏感性狀況。

Is there anything more that you can do on that front to mitigate the impact from Fed cuts?

在這方面你還能做些什麼來減輕聯準會降息的影響嗎？

Our asset sensitivity, we embarked on this four quarters ago, and our asset sensitivity was around 20% at a 200 basis point rate.

我們的資產敏感性，我們在四個季度前就開始了這項工作，以 200 個基點的利率計算，我們的資產敏感性約為 20%。

So we got that down to around 14% [with these actions].

因此，我們[透過這些行動]將這一比例降至 14% 左右。

That's about two thirds of the path to where we'd like to be, which is somewhere in the 10% to 12% range.

這大約是我們想要達到的目標的三分之二，大約在 10% 到 12% 的範圍內。

So we're very close to that as we sit here today, and that 10% to 12% range is where we were pre SVB.

因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們已經非常接近這一點，而 10% 到 12% 的範圍就是我們在 SVB 之前的水平。

I think we're making good progress there.

我認為我們在那裡取得了良好的進展。

And as you know, we're [TBD] focused.

如您所知，我們的重點是[待定]。

So what happens there is (inaudible) dollar shot to net interest income.

那麼，淨利息收入（聽不清楚）的美元飆升會發生什麼事。

However, on the AOCI. side, it would more than compensate for the increased value of the investment portfolio to TBD, where our balance sheet position would be neutral.

然而，在AOCI上。從側面來看，這將足以彌補投資組合的價值增加（待定），而我們的資產負債表狀況將是中性的。

Tom, is there anything that you'd like to add to that?

湯姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only thing I'd add is tactically we did add some hedges during the quarter as well.

我唯一要補充的是，從戰術上講，我們在本季也增加了一些對沖。

We've put on $2.5 billion of cash flow hedging on the variable rate loan book, moving some of that pricing out over the next 12 (multiple speakers).

我們已在可變利率貸款帳簿上進行了 25 億美元的現金流對沖，並在接下來的 12 個月（多位發言者）中將部分定價移出。

That brings us to $4 billion.

這使我們達到 40 億美元。

Yes, total

是的，總計

(multiple speakers).

（多個發言者）。

And they're interest rate hedges, cash flow and fair value, interest rate heavy.

它們是利率對沖、現金流和公允價值、利率沉重。

(Operator Instructions) As we have no further questions, I'll hand the call back to Deanna Hart for any concluding remarks.

（操作員說明）由於我們沒有其他問題，我會將電話轉給迪安娜·哈特 (Deanna Hart) 以供其進行總結發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and we hope you have a great day.

謝謝大家今天加入我們，希望您有個愉快的一天。

Thanks.

謝謝。