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Operator
Operator
Good day, everyone. My name is Leila, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
各位好。我叫 Leila,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻,我謹代表主辦方歡迎各位參加福特汽車公司 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, Chief Investor Relations Officer.
現在,我想把電話交給投資人關係長 Lynn Antipas Tyson。
Lynn Tyson - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Lynn Tyson - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Thank you, Leila, and welcome to Ford Motor Company's first quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and Sherry House, CFO. Joining us for Q&A is Andrew Frick, President of Ford Blue and Model e; Alicia Boler Davis President of Ford Pro; Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer; and Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO for Credit.
謝謝你,Leila,也歡迎各位參加福特汽車公司 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有總裁暨執行長 Jim Farley,以及財務長 Sherry House。參與問答的還有:Ford Blue 與 Model e 總裁 Andrew Frick、Ford Pro 總裁 Alicia Boler Davis、營運長 Kumar Galhotra,以及信貸事業(Credit)執行長 Cathy O'Callaghan。
Jim will give a high-level overview of the busianess, and Sherry will provide added texture on the financials and guidance. We'll be referring to non-GAAP measures today. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck at shareholder.ford.com.
Jim 將就業務提供高層次概覽,Sherry 則會就財務表現與財測提供更多補充說明。我們今天將引用非 GAAP 指標。這些指標已在我們財報簡報的附錄中,與最可比的美國 GAAP 指標進行調節(reconcile)。您可至 shareholder.ford.com 取得簡報。
Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ. The most significant risk factors are included on Page 19 of our deck. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.
我們的討論也包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能有所不同。最重要的風險因素列於簡報第 19 頁。除非另有說明,所有比較皆為年對年。公司 EBIT、EPS 與自由現金流皆以調整後基礎呈現。
Upcoming IR engagements include Navin Kumar, CFO of Ford Pro, at the Deutsche Bank Global Auto Industry Conference in New York on May 19.
即將進行的投資人關係(IR)活動包括:Ford Pro 財務長 Navin Kumar 將於 5 月 19 日在紐約出席德意志銀行全球汽車產業論壇。
Now I'll turn the call over to Mr. Farley.
現在我把電話交給 Farley 先生。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Lynn, and thanks to all of you for joining us. I wanted to thank the Ford team, all of our dealers and our partners for a strong start to this year. Our results this quarter $43.3 billion in revenue, $3.5 billion in adjusted EBIT reflect a sharp execution and the momentum we're building for our Ford+ plan. Accordingly, we're raising our full year adjusted EBIT guidance to between $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion.
謝謝你,Lynn,也感謝各位加入我們。我想感謝福特團隊、所有經銷商以及合作夥伴,讓我們今年有個強勁的開局。本季我們的營收為 433 億美元,調整後 EBIT 為 35 億美元,反映出我們執行力到位,以及 Ford+ 計畫所累積的動能。因此,我們將全年調整後 EBIT 財測上調至 85 億至 105 億美元。
These results are encouraging. But the bigger story is the modern Ford that's now taking shape. For 5 years, we have relentlessly built the foundation of Ford+. We strengthened our industrial system made real progress on quality, cost, and advanced our software capability and customer experience.
這些結果令人振奮。但更大的故事是:一個現代化的福特正在成形。過去 5 年,我們持續不懈地打造 Ford+ 的基礎。我們強化了工業體系,在品質與成本方面取得實質進展,並推進軟體能力與客戶體驗。
Earlier this month, we took the next step in that evolution by establishing an end-to-end organization, product creation and industrialization. We unified our advanced technology, digital and design teams with our global industrial system. This change aligns with the most intensive product and software rollout in our history. By 2030, almost all of our global volume will feature next-generation electric architectures and in-house software. This applies to every propulsion type as we deliver and scale high-quality software-defined vehicles.
本月稍早,我們透過建立端到端的組織(涵蓋產品開發與工業化)邁出下一步。我們把先進技術、數位與設計團隊,與全球工業體系整合為一體。這項變革與我們史上最密集的產品與軟體推出節奏相一致。到 2030 年,我們幾乎所有全球銷量都將採用下一代電動架構與自研軟體。這適用於所有動力型式,因為我們將交付並擴大高品質的軟體定義車輛。
This new organization allows for faster decision-making and reduced complexity. This is the moment we integrate the digital soul of the vehicle, the software or the silicon and the user experience with our world-class industrial execution.
這個新組織能加速決策並降低複雜度。此刻正是我們把車輛的數位靈魂——軟體或矽晶片,以及使用者體驗——與我們世界級的工業化執行力整合在一起的時機。
Among other things, this alignment will support our high-margin software and physical services revenue, which was over $15 billion last year. And we expect to grow that $15 billion nearly 8% annually through the end of the decade. This service growth is driven by offering customers indispensable digital experiences and investing in aftermarket sales with a focus on customer uptime, expanding our parts catalog and enhancing our service network.
除其他事項外,這項整合將支撐我們高毛利的軟體與實體服務營收;該營收去年超過 150 億美元。我們預期在本十年結束前,這 150 億美元將以接近每年 8% 的速度成長。這項服務成長來自:為客戶提供不可或缺的數位體驗、加大售後市場銷售投資並聚焦客戶車輛可用時間(uptime)、擴充零件目錄,以及強化服務網路。
We're also learning -- we're also leaning into the Skunk Works model to improve all of Ford. They've done an incredible job creating the UEV platform, which represents a step change in efficiency and cost, especially for the EV market. But at Ford, we're now integrating these Skunk Work breakthroughs back into our mainstream products and processes. We're applying their advanced tools and physics-based cost modeling to the highest volume internal combustion and hybrid lines. This, of course, will reduce our costs and improve quality across the board.
我們也正在——我們也更積極採用 Skunk Works 模式來提升整個福特。他們在打造 UEV 平台方面表現卓越,這在效率與成本上帶來躍升,尤其對電動車市場更是如此。但在福特,我們現在正把這些 Skunk Works 的突破整合回主流產品與流程。我們將他們的先進工具與基於物理的成本建模,應用到最高銷量的內燃機與油電混合車系。這當然將全面降低成本並提升品質。
Our product pipeline is aggressive. Between now and '29, we will refresh 80% of our North America portfolio and 70% of our global portfolio by volume. This includes the next-generation F-150 and Super Duty among many others. It also includes the launch of our universal EV platform in 2027 from our Louisville assembly plant in Kentucky. We are scaling that plant for significant volume to accommodate a variety of vehicles off that single platform.
我們的產品管線相當積極。從現在到 2029 年,我們將以銷量計刷新北美產品組合的 80% 以及全球產品組合的 70%。其中包括下一代 F-150 與 Super Duty 等多款車型。也包括我們將於 2027 年在肯塔基州路易斯維爾組裝廠推出通用 EV 平台。我們正擴充該廠以支援可觀的產量,讓單一平台可承載多種車型。
And speaking of electrification, our strategy remains focused on powertrain choice, not nameplate complexity. By the end of the decade, 90% of our global nameplates will offer electrified powertrains, including advanced hybrids, extended-range electric vehicles and full EVs.
談到電動化,我們的策略仍聚焦於動力系統選擇,而非車系(nameplate)複雜化。到本十年末,我們全球 90% 的車系都將提供電動化動力系統,包括先進油電混合、增程式電動車以及純電動車。
Our financial health is driven by a leaner, more effective industrial system. We're on track to deliver another over $1 billion in material and warranty cost improvements this year. And we will never stop. Our focus on quality is paying off. J.D. Power has recently ranked Ford number 4 in the 2026 US Customer Service Index, our best performance in 30 years.
我們的財務健康來自更精實、更有效的工業體系。我們正按計畫在今年再實現超過 10 億美元的材料與保固成本改善。而且我們永不止步。我們對品質的專注正在帶來回報。J.D. Power 最近在 2026 年美國客戶服務指數中將福特評為第 4 名,這是我們 30 年來的最佳表現。
Finally, we remain resilient in the face of global uncertainty. Regarding the conflict in the Middle East, of course, our priority is our team and the safety of them. We're monitoring the situation and working to minimize risk and find opportunities in much the same way we have navigated the pandemic, the semiconductor shortage, tariff headwinds and others. We have the muscle memory to find cost offsets, adjust our product mix quickly and proactively manage our supply chain in times of stress and crisis.
最後,面對全球不確定性,我們仍具韌性。關於中東衝突,當然,我們的首要任務是團隊以及他們的安全。我們正監控情勢,並努力降低風險、尋找機會,方式與我們過去因應疫情、半導體短缺、關稅逆風等情況相當類似。我們具備在壓力與危機時刻尋找成本抵銷、快速調整產品組合,並主動管理供應鏈的「肌肉記憶」。
My main message today is this: Ford is a fundamentally stronger, more modern company. We have a foundation built on industrial fitness. We have the technology. And we now have the unified organization to not just deliver but to compete to win. Ford is focused on execution, quality and thrilling our customers.
我今天最主要的訊息是:福特在根本上已是一家更強大、更現代化的公司。我們擁有以工業體質為基礎的根基。我們擁有技術。而且我們現在也有統一的組織,不僅能交付成果,更能在競爭中勝出。福特聚焦於執行、品質,以及讓客戶感到振奮。
Over to you, Sherry.
交給你了,Sherry。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jim, and hello, everyone. Before I walk you through the details of our performance this quarter, let me start with a few items I know are top of mind for you. First, in Q1, we recognized a $1.3 billion benefit related to IEEPA tariffs. This onetime adjustment largely benefits Ford Blue and Ford Pro at about $700 million and $500 million, respectively. They are related to IEEPA tariffs paid between March 2025 and February 2026.
謝謝你,Jim,各位好。在我帶各位檢視本季表現細節之前,我先談幾項我知道各位最關心的事項。第一,在第一季,我們認列了與 IEEPA 關稅相關的 13 億美元利益。這項一次性調整主要使 Ford Blue 與 Ford Pro 受益,分別約為 7 億美元與 5 億美元。這與 2025 年 3 月至 2026 年 2 月期間支付的 IEEPA 關稅有關。
Second, our Novelis recovery is progressing as expected. We still expect a $1 billion improvement in EBIT year-over-year, weighted towards the second half. This is net of $1.5 billion to $2 billion of onetime incremental costs to secure alternatively-sourced aluminum until the Novelis facility is operating at full throughput later this year.
第二,我們對 Novelis 的追償(recovery)進展符合預期。我們仍預期 EBIT 年對年改善 10 億美元,且改善幅度將偏向下半年。在 Novelis 設施於今年稍晚達到滿載產能之前,為確保替代來源鋁材所產生的 15 億至 20 億美元一次性增量成本,已在上述改善中扣除(淨額)。
Third, relative to US inventory, we expect to remain within our target of 55 to 65 retail day supply for the year. F-Series sales remain healthy as inventory recovers from the Novelis supply disruption. America's best-selling truck delivered year-over-year retail share improvement of 30 basis points in March, and we are carrying that momentum into Q2. Our team is effectively managing tight retail day supply by helping dealers fill inventory gaps, while ensuring high demand trim levels are in ample supply.
第三,就美國庫存而言,我們預期全年將維持在目標的 55 至 65 天零售日供應範圍內。隨著庫存自 Novelis 供應中斷中恢復,F-Series 銷售仍然健康。美國最暢銷的卡車在 3 月的零售市占率較去年同期提升 30 個基點,我們正把這股動能延續到第二季。我們的團隊透過協助經銷商補齊庫存缺口,有效管理緊俏的零售日供應,同時確保高需求的車型等級供應充足。
We are also producing a richer mix of product as we continue to ramp Novelis. And importantly, on average, we are spending less on incentives than our competitors. In fact, for the quarter, F-150 had the highest retail share, highest average transaction price and the lowest incentive spend per unit versus our key competition.
隨著我們持續提升 Novelis 產能,我們也在生產更高價值的產品組合。更重要的是,平均而言,我們在促銷獎勵上的支出低於競爭對手。事實上,就本季而言,F-150 的零售市占率最高、平均成交價最高,且相較主要競爭對手,每輛車的促銷獎勵支出最低。
Now turning to the quarter. We delivered adjusted EBIT of $3.5 billion, or $2.2 billion excluding the impact of the IEEPA. The strength in the quarter versus our original guidance was primarily supported by a change in calendarization of cost improvements and timing of investments, growth in software and physical services and higher net pricing.
接著談本季表現。我們交出調整後 EBIT 35 億美元;若排除 IEEPA 的影響,則為 22 億美元。本季相較我們原先指引的強勁表現,主要來自成本改善在日曆化上的變動與投資時點的調整、軟體與實體服務的成長,以及更高的淨定價。
Our global revenue grew by over 6% despite a nearly 4% decline in volume, which was expected as we exited low-margin products like Escape in North America and Focus in Europe. In the US we had our highest Q1 share of revenue in five years, led by large utilities and trucks.
儘管銷量下滑近 4%(這在預期之內,因為我們在北美退出 Escape、在歐洲退出 Focus 等低毛利產品),我們的全球營收仍成長超過 6%。在美國,我們創下五年來最高的第一季營收市占率,主要由大型 SUV 與卡車帶動。
Adjusted free cash flow was a use of $1.9 billion in the quarter, more than explained by unfavorable timing differences, higher net spending and changes in working capital. On a full year basis, we expect timing differences and working capital to be favorable.
本季調整後自由現金流為淨流出 19 億美元,主要可由不利的時點差異、更高的淨支出以及營運資金變動所解釋。以全年來看,我們預期時點差異與營運資金將帶來正面貢獻。
Our balance sheet is strong with $22 billion in cash and over $43 billion in liquidity, and we remain committed to our investment-grade rating. We repaid our convertible debt without refinancing it and also relaunched our anti-dilutive share repurchase program, which we completed in the quarter. And earlier this month, we successfully renewed our $18 billion corporate credit facilities for another year.
我們的資產負債表穩健,現金 220 億美元、流動性超過 430 億美元,並持續致力維持投資級評等。我們已償還可轉換債務且未再融資,並重新啟動反稀釋的庫藏股回購計畫,且已於本季完成。此外,本月稍早我們也成功將 180 億美元的公司信用融資額度續約一年。
Our strong liquidity position provides us with the flexibility to manage in this dynamic environment and invest in higher-return growth opportunities like Ford Energy. It also allows us to pay consistent shareholder distributions. In fact, yesterday we announced the declaration of our second quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on June 1 to shareholders of record on May 12.
我們強勁的流動性部位,讓我們能在這個動態環境中保持彈性,並投資於如 Ford Energy 等更高報酬的成長機會。同時也使我們能夠穩定地向股東配發股利。事實上,昨天我們宣布第二季例行股利為每股 0.15 美元,將於 6 月 1 日支付給 5 月 12 日登記在冊的股東。
Now turning to segment highlights. Ford Pro achieved EBIT of $1.7 billion, against a backdrop of Novelis-related production disruptions. Ford Pro continues to deliver higher margins through a powerful ecosystem of vehicles, software and physical services.
接著談各事業部門重點。在 Novelis 相關生產中斷的背景下,Ford Pro 仍達成 17 億美元的 EBIT。Ford Pro 透過車輛、軟體與實體服務所構成的強大生態系,持續帶來更高的利潤率。
We are scaling rapidly and increasing recurring revenue, which bolsters resiliency. In fact, paid software subscriptions grew to 879,000, a 30% year-over-year increase. By integrating innovations like Ford Pro AI, we can help commercial fleet managers instantly identify maintenance needs, leverage large data models and fuel usage to lower costs and optimize routes amongst other features, all designed to provide better predictability, productivity and profitability, which our customers require. As we look ahead, the 2027 model year order books are just starting to open, and we are seeing positive early indicators.
我們正快速擴張並提升經常性收入,進一步強化韌性。事實上,付費軟體訂閱數成長至 879,000,年增 30%。透過整合 Ford Pro AI 等創新,我們能協助商用車隊管理者即時辨識維修需求,運用大型資料模型與燃油使用資訊來降低成本並優化路線等功能;所有設計皆旨在提供更佳的可預測性、生產力與獲利能力,以滿足客戶需求。展望未來,2027 年式的訂單簿才剛開始開放,我們已看到正面的早期指標。
Ford Blue delivered $1.9 billion in EBIT, supported by the sustained sales performance of F-Series and go-to-market discipline, evidenced by Q1 incentive spend below industry average. Additionally, our off-road performance trims now account for nearly one-fourth of US sales, and Maverick and F-150 continue as the best-selling hybrids in their segments. Importantly, Ford Blue's Q1 performance highlights the strength of the underlying business and excluding IEEPA, is representative of its ongoing run rate.
Ford Blue 交出 19 億美元的 EBIT,受惠於 F-Series 持續的銷售表現與上市策略紀律,第一季促銷獎勵支出低於產業平均即為明證。此外,我們的越野性能版本目前約占美國銷量的近四分之一,而 Maverick 與 F-150 仍是各自細分市場中最暢銷的油電混合車。重要的是,Ford Blue 第一季的表現凸顯其基礎業務的實力;若排除 IEEPA,其表現可代表其持續的常態運行水準。
For Ford Model e, EBIT was a loss of $777 million as we now start to benefit from the portfolio changes announced in December. In addition to investing in a leaner, more profitable portfolio, we are actively matching supply with demand globally to optimize profitability. And in the quarter, we benefited from a nearly 35% improvement in our Gen 1 losses.
Ford Model e 的 EBIT 虧損為 7.77 億美元,因我們開始受惠於 12 月宣布的產品組合調整。除了投資於更精實、獲利性更高的產品組合外,我們也正積極在全球範圍內使供給與需求匹配,以最佳化獲利能力。本季我們也受惠於 Gen 1 虧損改善近 35%。
We also continue to step up our incremental $1 billion investment in UEV platform and Ford Energy as we progress throughout the year, ahead of their launches in 2027. As a result, we expect first quarter to be the strongest quarter for Model e this year. Ford Credit delivered a solid quarter with EBT of $783 million, up $200 million, reflecting improvements in financing margin and enabled by a high-quality book of business. Results also benefited from favorable performance on our derivatives. Our portfolio performance is strong, and we maintain a highly disciplined approach to capital reserve and risk management practices.
隨著年度進程推進,我們也持續加碼對 UEV 平台與 Ford Energy 的額外 10 億美元投資,並提前為其 2027 年上市做準備。因此,我們預期第一季將是 Model e 今年表現最強的一季。Ford Credit 本季表現穩健,稅前盈餘(EBT)為 7.83 億美元,增加 2 億美元,反映融資利差改善,並受惠於高品質的業務組合。業績亦受惠於我們衍生性金融商品的有利表現。我們的資產組合表現強勁,並持續以高度紀律的方式進行資本準備與風險管理。
So let me turn to our 2026 outlook. For the full year, we now expect company adjusted EBIT of $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, adjusted free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion, and capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, which reflects our shift toward higher-return growth opportunities, including $1.5 billion for Ford Energy this year.
接著談我們對 2026 年的展望。就全年而言,我們目前預期公司調整後 EBIT 為 85 億至 105 億美元,調整後自由現金流為 50 億至 60 億美元,資本支出為 95 億至 105 億美元;這反映我們轉向更高報酬的成長機會,包括今年對 Ford Energy 投入 15 億美元。
Our guidance does not include the potential impacts of a sustained conflict in the Middle East or a significant downturn in the US economy, which could have a material impact on industry demand.
我們的指引未納入中東衝突若持續升級或美國經濟若出現顯著下行的潛在影響;這些因素可能對產業需求造成重大影響。
Our full year segment outlook stays steady with Ford Pro EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, Model e losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion, Ford Credit EBT of about $2.5 billion. And for Ford Blue, we have increased our guidance by $500 million, to $4.5 billion to $5 billion, driven by a stronger underlying business. Our guidance continues to assume a US SAAR of 16 million to 16.5 million units in flat industry pricing.
我們全年各事業部門展望維持不變:Ford Pro 的 EBIT 為 65 億至 75 億美元,Model e 虧損為 40 億至 45 億美元,Ford Credit 的 EBT 約 25 億美元。至於 Ford Blue,我們將指引上調 5 億美元至 45 億至 50 億美元,主要由更強勁的基礎業務所帶動。我們的指引仍假設美國 SAAR 為 1,600 萬至 1,650 萬輛,且產業定價持平。
Now some context and important puts and takes for the year. We have the $1.3 billion in IEEPA tariff benefit, but we now expect commodity headwinds of just above $2 billion, about $1 billion higher than our previous estimate, largely due to higher aluminum pricing driven by global supply constraints. Note though, this excludes Novelis-related aluminum costs.
接著提供一些背景,以及今年重要的正負因素。我們有 13 億美元的 IEEPA 關稅利益,但目前預期大宗商品逆風略高於 20 億美元,較先前估計高約 10 億美元,主要因全球供給受限推升鋁價。但請注意,這不包含 Novelis 相關的鋁材成本。
The impact of ongoing tariffs is unchanged at about $1 billion and is now a part of our run rate costs. This excludes the IEEPA benefit and Novelis temporary costs. As Jim mentioned, we're on track for $1 billion improvement in material costs and warranty reductions on top of the $1.5 billion of cost reductions we delivered in 2025. We continue to expect a net $1 billion improvement from the Novelis recovery. And as I mentioned earlier, about $1 billion of incremental investment in Model e to support the ramp of UEV platform and Ford Energy.
持續性關稅的影響維持不變,約為 10 億美元,且目前已成為我們常態成本的一部分。此處不包含 IEEPA 的利益與 Novelis 的暫時性成本。如 Jim 所提,我們正按計畫在 2025 年已實現 15 億美元成本降低的基礎上,再達成 10 億美元的材料成本改善與保固費用降低。我們仍預期 Novelis 復原將帶來淨額 10 億美元的改善。此外,如我先前提到,Model e 將增加約 10 億美元的額外投資,以支援 UEV 平台與 Ford Energy 的爬坡。
Our Q1 performance highlights the benefits of our Ford+ priorities: rigorously optimizing revenue across every segment through leading products and high-growth services; improving operating leverage; and exercising smart, accretive capital allocation decisions. The increase in our full year adjusted EBIT guidance underscores these benefits. Thank you.
我們第一季的表現凸顯 Ford+ 優先事項所帶來的效益:透過領先產品與高成長服務,在各事業部門嚴謹地最佳化營收;提升營運槓桿;並做出明智且具增值效果的資本配置決策。我們上調全年調整後 EBIT 指引,進一步印證這些效益。謝謝。
And I'll now turn it over to the operator so we can take your questions.
接下來我把時間交給接線員,我們開始回答各位的提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Joseph Spak, UBS.
Joseph Spak,瑞銀(UBS)。
Joe Spock - Analyst
Joe Spock - Analyst
Good afternoon, everyone. Sherry, maybe just to pick up right up on the commodity increase. You mentioned about $1 billion. I'm just trying to contextualize what you're assuming here. Because I think in the past, you talked about, call it, an $8 billion steel aluminum buy, I think, 40% of that's aluminum. There's been some hedging -- and this is really only nine months.
各位下午好。Sherry,我想先接著談商品成本上升的部分。你提到大約10億美元。我只是想把你們這裡的假設放到脈絡中理解。因為我記得過去你們談過,約80億美元的鋼與鋁採購,我想其中40%是鋁。之前也做了一些避險——而且這其實只涵蓋九個月。
So I know prices have really gone up, it looks like, pretty big numbers. So I just want to help understand what you're thinking for the balance of the year and then how you would advise investors to sort of think about that rate heading into '27.
所以我知道價格確實大幅上漲,看起來是相當可觀的數字。我只是想更清楚你們對今年剩餘期間的看法,以及你們會如何建議投資人去思考進入2027年時這個成本增速的走向。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sure. Well, it's going to be a bit hard to be able to predict 2027 at this point given the volatility that we've seen in the commodities. But let me just tell you in the near term what I'm seeing. So with respect to steel and aluminum, in particular, even before the Middle East situation started, we were already seeing global industry shortages. And that was first.
好的。鑑於我們在大宗商品上看到的波動性,要在此時預測2027年會有點困難。不過我先跟你說說我在短期內看到的情況。就鋼與鋁而言,特別是,在中東局勢開始之前,我們就已經看到全球產業供應短缺。這是第一點。
Then you had the Middle East. And then you have to remember that Ford also has the aluminum supply shortage with respect to our primary aluminum supplier, which is Novelis.
接著是中東局勢。然後你也要記得,福特在鋁供應方面也面臨短缺,涉及我們的主要鋁供應商Novelis。
These costs are not related to Novelis. We package those separately. We talk about those separately. And when I talk about a $1 billion year-over-year improvement due to Novelis, that includes all the tariff costs. But this is related to the exposures that we have in aluminum and steel predominantly.
這些成本與Novelis無關。我們會把那部分另外打包。我們也會另外說明。當我談到因Novelis帶來的年對年改善10億美元時,那裡面包含所有關稅成本。但這裡談的是我們在鋁與鋼方面為主的曝險。
Joe Spock - Analyst
Joe Spock - Analyst
Okay. And then I guess just a second question maybe, is there any update you could provide us on the Novelis time line? I mean, I think there was some preliminary thought it could come online in the summer. Are we sort of on track there? And if that happens, how are you thinking about that headwind you mentioned?
了解。那第二個問題是,你們能否提供Novelis時程的最新進展?我記得之前初步的想法是可能在夏天上線。目前還在軌道上嗎?如果如期發生,你們如何看待你提到的那個逆風?
I'm just trying to sort of figure out the phasing timing because I guess my prior assumption was that most of that Novelis headwind would have been more in the first half if it was sort of expected to ramp through the year. But I'm not quite certain that sort of still the case. So maybe just help us with some of that cost phasing timing.
我想釐清分期/時點,因為我先前的假設是,如果預期全年逐步爬坡,那Novelis的大部分逆風應該會更多落在上半年。但我不太確定現在是否仍是如此。所以請協助我們理解一些成本分期時點。
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, Joe, this is Kumar. Your assumption is correct, we are still expecting the hot mill to restart in May. There are two aspects to bringing any mill back online. There's the restart itself, and then there's the ramp-up.
是的,Joe,我是Kumar。你的假設正確,我們仍預期熱軋廠會在5月重啟。讓任何工廠重新上線有兩個面向。一個是重啟本身,另一個是爬坡增產。
So all the enablers for both of these aspects are on track.
這兩個面向所需的所有促成條件目前都在按計畫推進。
In the event the relaunch doesn't go according to plan, we do have contingency plans in place. That means we have additional aluminum supply to ensure our plant production schedules aren't interrupted. So the mill should be back online. And if we have any hiccups, we have contingency plans for the rest of the year.
如果重新啟動未能按計畫進行,我們也已備妥應變方案。也就是我們有額外的鋁供應,以確保工廠生產排程不會中斷。因此該工廠應該會重新上線。若有任何小插曲,我們也有今年剩餘期間的應變方案。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
And Joe, as you would expect -- it's Jim -- we have by grade, we have several grades, by step in the process. We track it every day. We know exactly the situation we have, the float we have. And we also have learned how to back up the aluminum supply, as Kumar said, in case the mill ramps slower or the actual start date is later.
而且Joe,如你所預期——我是Jim——我們按等級(grade)管理,我們有好幾個等級,也按製程步驟管理。我們每天追蹤。我們非常清楚目前的狀況,以及我們有多少緩衝量(float)。同時,如Kumar所說,我們也已學會如何備援鋁供應,以防工廠爬坡較慢或實際啟動日期延後。
Joe Spock - Analyst
Joe Spock - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Dan Levy, Barclays.
Dan Levy,巴克萊(Barclays)。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Hi, can you hear me now?
嗨,現在聽得到我嗎?
Operator
Operator
We can, yes, go ahead.
聽得到,請說。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Okay, thanks for taking the questions. We know within the guidance that effectively the IEEPA refund is being offset by raw mats. So really the net of the guidance improvement is coming from improved operations. Maybe you can just in the improved operations beyond the warranty material, which looks like that's consistent. And how much runway do you have on this? And can this offset any increases in raw mats that you might be seeing in '27 just given the staggering of costs that are going to be hitting?
好的,謝謝讓我提問。我們知道在你們的指引中,IEEPA退款基本上被原物料成本所抵銷。所以指引淨改善其實是來自營運改善。也許你可以談談,在營運改善方面,除了保固材料之外(看起來那部分是持平一致的),你們還有多少改善空間?而且考量到將會陸續反映的成本,你們在2027年看到的原物料上漲,這些營運改善能否抵銷?
Lynn Tyson - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Lynn Tyson - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Yes. So as we look at kind of what's the -- basically the basis of our $1 billion raise versus guidance, it's going to be software and physical services, is one of the biggest components there. The Ford Pro business continues to have very high paid subscribers. We now are up at 879,000, as I said in some of our prepared remarks. It's 30% on a year-over-year basis.
是的。我們來看相對於原先指引、我們上調10億美元的基礎,最大的組成之一會是軟體與實體服務。Ford Pro業務持續擁有非常高的付費訂閱用戶。如我在部分事先準備的發言中提到的,我們現在已達到879,000名。年對年成長30%。
The enterprise is also doing quite well across the physical services and the software. The other item that was really big for us in Q1 was the net pricing. As we said, the share of revenue, highest in five years. And this was really led, as we said, by full-size utilities and trucks.
企業端在實體服務與軟體方面也表現相當不錯。另外一個在第一季對我們影響很大的項目是淨定價。如我們所說,營收占比是五年來最高。而這主要是由全尺寸SUV與卡車帶動的。
And then we did have some timing differences in cost. So some items hit in Q1 that we were expecting to hit in Q2, and that was very favorable for us. So we took all that underlying performance into consideration. We felt that $0.5 billion was the amount to be able to pull through for the full year, and that's why our guidance reflects that.
此外,我們在成本上也有一些時點差異。有些項目在第一季入帳,而我們原本預期會在第二季入帳,這對我們非常有利。因此我們把所有這些基礎表現都納入考量。我們認為其中有5億美元是可以在全年持續反映的金額,所以我們的指引才會反映這一點。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Percoco,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Great. Thanks so much for taking the question. I did want to come back to the guidance here. And maybe I'm missing some of the moving pieces. But if I just look at your first quarter performance, $3.5 billion of adjusted EBIT, I think you had been essentially signaling sequentially flat, which would have been like $1.1 billion for the first quarter.
很好。非常感謝讓我提問。我想回到指引的部分。也許我漏掉了一些變動因素。但如果我只看你們第一季的表現,調整後EBIT是35億美元,我想你們先前基本上暗示的是季對季持平,那第一季應該會像是11億美元左右。
So you essentially beat like $2.5 billion in the first quarter, of which a little bit over $1 billion is for IEEPA. But that would imply like, even though that's offset by some incremental cost headwinds on the commodity side, it would imply downside or some incremental costs elsewhere if your guide is only increasing by $500 million.
所以你們第一季等於超出大約25億美元,其中略高於10億美元是IEEPA。但即便那部分被商品端一些新增的成本逆風所抵銷,若你們的指引只上調5億美元,這似乎意味著其他地方存在下行或額外成本。
So can you maybe just help us break down some of those moving pieces in case I'm kind of missing anything in that bridge?
所以你能否協助我們拆解一下這些變動因素,以防我在那個橋接(bridge)中漏掉了什麼?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I don't think you're missing anything in the bridge. It's just as I said, we had the three components that we're really driving this performance, and we're pulling through the amount of it that is sustainable. Some of it was timing differences, so we didn't want to put timing differences into a guidance raise.
是的,我不認為你在橋接上漏掉了什麼。只是如我所說,有三個組成在驅動這次表現,而我們只把其中可持續的部分納入全年反映。其中一部分是時點差異,所以我們不想把時點差異納入上調指引。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Okay. Got it. And then, Jim, maybe one for you. There's been a lot of headlines recently around some potential partnerships between Ford and some of the Chinese OEMs. And even outside of Ford, there's just a lot of focus in the marketplace around some of these vehicles coming out of China eventually potentially making their way into the US.
好的。了解。接著,Jim,可能也請你回答一下。最近有很多新聞標題在談 Ford 與一些中國 OEM 之間可能的合作夥伴關係。甚至不只 Ford,市場上也非常關注一些來自中國的車款,未來可能最終進入美國市場。
Can you just give us your updated thoughts on what that could look like and maybe any involvement that you might be interested in doing there?
你能否跟我們分享一下你最新的看法,這可能會是什麼樣子,以及你們是否有興趣在其中參與?
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. I'm sure glad there is a lot of focus on it. As America's largest auto producer, we are totally dedicated to a thriving US auto industry, and, of course, safeguarding our country's industrial base. That's just not economic vitality, it's also in national security as a country.
當然。我很高興大家對這件事有高度關注。作為美國最大的汽車生產商,我們完全致力於讓美國汽車產業蓬勃發展,當然也要守護我們國家的工業基礎。這不只是經濟活力的問題,對一個國家而言也關乎國家安全。
And when we see China and Japan and South Korea, they've really prioritized their domestic auto industry and manufacturing for these same reasons that I mentioned.
而當我們看到中國、日本與南韓,他們也確實基於我剛提到的同樣原因,將本國汽車產業與製造業列為優先。
I would say, to answer your question, we leverage global partnerships and even IP sharing including with the Chinese OEs to grow our business around the world. But we are really fully committed to a level playing field here in the US, and also safeguarding our home market because of the importance of the auto industry and our industrial base.
我會這樣回答你的問題:我們運用全球合作夥伴關係,甚至包含與中國車廠分享 IP(智慧財產),來拓展我們在全球的業務。但我們也非常堅定地支持在美國建立公平競爭的環境,同時守護我們的本土市場,因為汽車產業與我們的工業基礎至關重要。
So how I would think about it is Ford continues to be a global company. We want to have the rights to win around the globe. We need IP and partnerships outside the US to do that. And when it comes to the US
所以我的看法是,Ford 仍將是一家全球性公司。我們希望擁有在全球取勝的權利。為了做到這點,我們需要美國以外的 IP 與合作夥伴關係。而談到美國
industry itself, we are extremely protective, as we should be, like China, South Korea and Japan are. What that means in specific policies, that will play out in our strategy as a company. But as America's number 1 auto producer you can understand our perspective.
本身的產業,我們會非常保護——而且我們也應該如此,就像中國、南韓與日本所做的一樣。至於具體政策意味著什麼,會在我們作為一家公司的策略中逐步展現。但作為美國第一大汽車生產商,你可以理解我們的立場。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
That's great. Thank you.
太好了。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Alex Perry, Bank of America.
Alex Perry,美國銀行。
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions here. In the materials, I thought it was interesting, I think you said the off-road performance trims account for 25% of the overall sales mix. Can you give us a little bit more on the strategy here and a little more color on how this has trended historically? Is the strategy to prioritize some of these higher-margin trims while production remains constrained? And maybe just remind us on the profitability of some of these off-road trims versus company average? Thanks.
嗨。謝謝讓我在這裡提問。在資料中我覺得很有意思,我想你們提到越野性能版本(trims)約占整體銷售組合的 25%。能否多談一些這裡的策略,以及這個趨勢在歷史上是如何演變的?在產能仍受限的情況下,策略是否是優先推動一些毛利較高的版本?另外也請提醒我們,這些越野版本相較於公司平均的獲利能力如何?謝謝。
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue
Yeah, thanks. This is Andrew. Yes, that is part of our strategy. It's a big piece of why our Blue business is doing well overall. In fact, if you look at our wholesales this past quarter and the first quarter, they were relatively flat, but we had an improved mix of Explorer, Expedition.
好的,謝謝。我是 Andrew。是的,這確實是我們策略的一部分。這也是我們 Blue 業務整體表現良好的重要原因之一。事實上,如果你看我們上一季以及第一季的批發銷量,整體相對持平,但我們的產品組合有所改善,例如 Explorer、Expedition。
We phased out Escape. We're in the sell-down of that, and our F-Series remains strong. And we actually -- we grew our share in the off-road space 25% of our volume, but our share actually grew by 0.7 point, which was really important. And that's because we're able to lean into across multiple vehicles now, series like Tremor and Raptor, and really drive those mixes. So it is relatively more profitable and it all plays back to our overall strategy of leaning into our profit pillars and winning with passion products.
我們已逐步停產 Escape。目前正處於清庫存階段,而我們的 F-Series 依然強勁。此外——我們在越野領域的占比達到我們銷量的 25%,而且我們的市占率實際上提升了 0.7 個百分點,這非常重要。這是因為我們現在能在多款車型上加碼,例如 Tremor 和 Raptor 這些系列,並真正帶動這些組合占比。因此其獲利能力相對更高,而這也回扣到我們整體策略:聚焦我們的獲利支柱,並以充滿熱情的產品取勝。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
No boring products.
不要做無聊的產品。
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Perfect. Very helpful. And just a follow-up on commodities. Can you just remind us how you're sort of hedged across the various commodities? And with the $2 billion commodity headwind, does this assume that prices sort of stay where they are today, so if they were to come down, this would provide a little bit of cushion in the guide?
完美。非常有幫助。另外追問一下大宗商品。能否提醒我們,你們在各類大宗商品上的避險配置大概是怎麼做的?以及在 20 億美元的大宗商品逆風之下,這是否假設價格大致維持在今天的水準;如果價格下跌,是否會為指引提供一些緩衝?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. . The forward forecast that we gave you does -- the guidance we gave you assumes that they stay where they are, which, as you would know, the forward curves are up. We have a large number of contract types that we use. We have, in some cases, we have fixed cost contracts, multiyear contracts. We have a lot of contracts that are based on indices and the impact is a quarter lagging.
是的。。我們給你的前瞻預測——也就是我們提供的指引——是假設價格維持在目前水準;如你所知,遠期曲線是向上的。我們使用多種合約類型。在某些情況下,我們有固定成本合約、多年期合約。我們也有很多合約是以指數為基礎,而其影響會有一季的落後。
So you're going to have a range there.
所以你會看到一個區間。
We also look at natural hedges that we have in our business as well. So when we look to hedge, we're taking the entire portfolio into consideration. And we feel that we've got a pretty good handle to be able to provide you what we did in terms of commodities for the balance of the year. If they go up substantially from here, we obviously would be sharing that with you. But you're right, if they go down, that will be a net positive to the business.
我們也會評估業務中存在的自然避險。因此當我們考慮避險時,會把整個投資組合納入考量。我們認為自己掌握得相當不錯,才能就今年剩餘期間的大宗商品影響,向你們提供我們所給出的數字。如果價格從這裡大幅上升,我們當然會與你們分享。但你說得對,如果價格下跌,對業務而言將是淨正面。
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Perfect. Incredibly helpful. Best of luck going forward.
完美。非常有幫助。祝接下來一切順利。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney,高盛。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking the questions. I was hoping to start on the comments the company spoke about in its prepared remarks on software and physical services. I think you said you expect the $15 billion of revenue coming from those areas to grow at a nearly 8% rate annually through the end of the decade, which is a pretty good outlook over several years. So can you help investors to better understand what's driving that degree of revenue growth over the coming years? And more importantly, what does that mean for EBIT?
是的,下午好。非常感謝讓我提問。我想先從公司在事先準備的發言中提到的軟體與實體服務談起。我記得你們說,預期來自這些領域的 150 億美元營收,將在本十年末之前以接近每年 8% 的速度成長,這在未來數年是相當不錯的展望。那麼你能否協助投資人更好地理解,未來幾年推動這種營收成長幅度的因素是什麼?更重要的是,這對 EBIT 代表什麼?
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Sure. This has been a critical part of our path to 8%. And we've been planning for many years. As you can imagine, before I answer your question directly, we've had to invest a lot in our advanced electric architectures and our dealers had to invest a lot in dealer capacity for the service.
當然。這一直是我們邁向 8% 的關鍵路徑之一。而且我們已經規劃很多年。如你所想像,在我直接回答你的問題之前,我們必須在先進電動架構上投入大量資本,而我們的經銷商也必須在服務的經銷商產能上投入很多。
Really our focus is on two key areas. We have a lot more focus on these two, but these are the ones driving our business. The first is our aftersales parts business. This is a really key focus for the Ford team. We see growth in Pro.
我們的重點其實聚焦在兩個關鍵領域。我們在這兩個領域之外也有更多著墨,但這兩項是驅動我們業務的核心。第一個是我們的售後零件業務。這是 Ford 團隊非常關注的重點。我們看到 Pro 的成長。
Our dealers are massively investing in capacity for Pro. But we are also becoming a lot more successful in wholesaling parts from our dealers to third-party repair shops throughout the US. As I mentioned, we're going to expand our parts catalog in terms of price and diversity, and we're going to start to focus on not just Ford parts but multi-make parts.
我們的經銷商正在為 Pro 大幅投資產能。但同時,我們也越來越成功地把零件從經銷商批發給全美各地的第三方維修廠。如我提到的,我們將在價格帶與多樣性方面擴充零件目錄,並且會開始不只聚焦 Ford 零件,也會聚焦多品牌零件。
And I think the other key distinguishing element for Ford is that we have started to really get good at remote service. Almost 20% of all Ford's repair now is done outside the dealership, at our customers' location. And for our Pro customers, they are especially excited about this because they don't have to come into the dealership. And this has really expanded our revenue on aftersales.
我認為 Ford 另一個關鍵的差異化要素是,我們已開始真正擅長遠端服務。目前 Ford 所有維修中,將近 20% 是在經銷商之外、於客戶所在地完成。對我們的 Pro 客戶而言,他們對此尤其興奮,因為他們不必進到經銷商。而這也確實擴大了我們在售後方面的營收。
Inside the company, we're very focused on improving our repair order duration. That gives our dealers more capacity, so to speak, without having to build any more capacity. I think you know our growth in ADAS, our growth in Pro Intelligence that Sherry mentioned, are both signature parts of our integrated services that seem to be growing about 30% to 40% a quarter with very high margins. When you look at the margins of the parts business and the software business, this $15 billion that will be growing at 8% a year is highly profitable for the company.
在公司內部,我們非常專注於縮短維修工單的處理週期。這等於讓我們的經銷商在不必再新增任何產能的情況下,某種程度上獲得更多的服務容量。我想你也知道,我們在 ADAS 的成長、以及 Sherry 提到的 Pro Intelligence 的成長,都是我們整合式服務的標誌性組成,且看起來每季約以 30% 到 40% 的速度成長,並且具備非常高的毛利率。當你看零件業務與軟體業務的利潤率時,這個規模 150 億美元、且將以每年 8% 成長的業務,對公司而言是高度獲利的。
It also has a different revenue risk than our vehicle business. It's more of an annuity and a lot of it tends to be anti-cyclical. That means that when the car business goes down, people tend to repair their vehicles. So this fitness we're developing on the parts side will help us on the anti-cyclical side. That gives you, I think, some window, and hopefully, we'll be giving you more and more insights as to our ADAS strategy and Pro Intelligence product rollout in the coming years.
它的營收風險也與我們的整車業務不同。它更像年金型收入,而且其中很大一部分往往具有反景氣循環特性。這表示當汽車市場下行時,人們往往會選擇維修他們的車輛。因此,我們在零件端所打造的這種能力,將有助於我們在反景氣循環面向的表現。我認為這也讓你有一些觀察窗口;並且希望在未來幾年,我們能就 ADAS 策略與 Pro Intelligence 產品推廣節奏,提供你越來越多的洞見。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
That's very helpful. My other question was on the pickup market. Ford obviously has a very strong franchise in that segment with the F-Series. But you've also spoken to adding more product with the UEV-based pickup model coming in and then also the ICE truck you've talked about coming out of the Tennessee factory. We've also seen competitors lean into that segment more.
這非常有幫助。我另一個問題是關於皮卡市場。Ford 顯然在該細分市場擁有非常強勢的產品陣容,代表就是 F-Series。但你們也提到會增加更多產品,包括即將推出的基於 UEV 的皮卡車型,以及你們談到將由田納西工廠推出的 ICE 卡車。我們也看到競爭對手更積極投入這個細分市場。
So as you think about all the new models coming into the pickup space, maybe talk more on how much of the market you think pickups can make up in the future. And then as you think about more supply coming into pickups, what are implications for profit margins in that important category?
因此,當你們思考所有將進入皮卡領域的新車型時,能否多談談你們認為未來皮卡在整體市場中可能占比多少?另外,隨著皮卡供給增加,對這個重要品類的利潤率會有哪些影響?
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue
Yeah. Thank you for the question, Mark, this is Andrew. And I think it's important when you talk about the truck business, maybe to look at it through the lens of both retail and commercial, because they're both really important parts of both customer groups. On the retail side, the truck business has historically been with the full-size pickup and medium pickup. But what we've been able to do is really expand the pickup segments themselves. Maverick has created a whole new segment.
好的。謝謝你的問題,Mark,我是 Andrew。我認為談到卡車業務時,從零售與商用兩個角度來看很重要,因為它們都是兩大客群中非常關鍵的部分。在零售端,卡車業務歷來以全尺寸皮卡與中型皮卡為主。但我們真正做到的是擴大皮卡細分市場本身。Maverick 創造了一個全新的細分市場。
And we've been able to really take advantage of that. In fact, we've -- if you look at the trends in the market, you've seen a lot of car buyers go into truck and even utilities go into truck. And we think that trend will continue, especially with the type of packaging that we're going to be able to provide. It worked on Maverick, and we are really excited about the UEV pickup and the packaging that that has to really appeal to not just truck buyers, but to source from SUV buyers as well.
而我們也確實能夠充分把握這個機會。事實上,如果你看市場趨勢,你會看到許多轎車買家轉向卡車,甚至一些 SUV/多功能車買家也轉向卡車。我們認為這個趨勢會持續,尤其是考量到我們將能提供的產品包裝(packaging)。這在 Maverick 上已經奏效,而我們也對 UEV 皮卡及其產品包裝感到非常興奮,因為它不僅能吸引皮卡買家,也能從 SUV 買家那裡吸引需求。
So we see the pickup market growing, and it's really growing across segments and price points on the retail side. And Alicia, maybe on the commercial side.
因此我們看到皮卡市場正在成長,而且在零售端是跨細分市場與跨價格帶的成長。Alicia,也許你可以談談商用端。
Alicia Boler Davis - President - Ford Pro
Alicia Boler Davis - President - Ford Pro
On the commercial side, I would just -- I'll just comment similar to what Andrew said. We have commercial buyers that buy pickup trucks from Maverick size all the way up to our F-750. And we have products in those segments and we also have diverse powertrains, and we see that continuing to grow. We continue to have strong orders for 2026 right now from fleet customers. And we continue to see -- we just opened our '27 model year order books, and we're starting -- we're seeing some early indicators.
在商用端,我想——我就補充一下,和 Andrew 說的類似。我們的商用買家會購買從 Maverick 尺寸一路到 F-750 的皮卡/卡車。我們在這些細分市場都有產品,也有多元的動力系統,我們看到這些將持續成長。目前我們仍持續收到車隊客戶對 2026 年的強勁訂單。而且我們也持續看到——我們剛開放 2027 年式的訂購,我們開始——看到一些早期指標。
So we know the demand is there, is strong, and we want to make sure that we have offerings from the very beginning, Maverick all the way to the higher pickup trucks.
因此我們知道需求確實存在且很強勁,我們希望確保從一開始就能提供完整的產品選擇,從 Maverick 一直到更高階的皮卡車型。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
How we like to think about is that we want to future-proof our truck business. To do that, we want to offer customers more choice on the powertrain side and tie the powertrains to other benefits that a truck customer would want, like a hybrid for Pro Power Onboard. And part of protecting is not just having an affordable electric pickup or a hybrid throughout our lineup, but it's also having a flow of customers and move through our lineup over time.
我們的思考方式是:我們希望讓卡車業務具備面向未來的韌性(future-proof)。為此,我們希望在動力系統方面提供客戶更多選擇,並把動力系統與卡車客戶想要的其他利益連結起來,例如混合動力可支援 Pro Power Onboard。而所謂的保護,不僅是讓我們的產品線中有價格可負擔的電動皮卡或混合動力車型,也包括讓客戶能隨時間在我們的產品線中流動並逐步升級。
On the Pro side, it helps us with adjacency sales. But on the retail side, those Maverick, those UEV sales, they are a juggernaut for loading our whole pickup business and the strength over time, because we haven't seen our competitors invest like we have.
在 Pro(商用)端,這有助於我們帶動相鄰品類的銷售(adjacency sales)。但在零售端,Maverick 與 UEV 的銷售是推動我們整體皮卡業務規模與長期競爭力的強大引擎,因為我們尚未看到競爭對手像我們這樣投入。
I think the other thing that gets maybe overlooked about Ford's pickup strategy is our global strategy. Ford is really number 1 or number 2 in most markets around the globe. There are large pickup markets in Thailand, Africa, the Middle East and South America. And Ranger is number 1 or number 2 in every one of those segments. And we are future-proofing those lineups now as we speak with different powertrains and even more affordable options.
我認為 Ford 皮卡策略另一個可能被忽略的點,是我們的全球策略。Ford 在全球多數市場確實是第 1 或第 2 名。泰國、非洲、中東與南美都有龐大的皮卡市場。而 Ranger 在上述每個細分市場都是第 1 或第 2 名。而我們此刻正在以不同動力系統、甚至更可負擔的選項,讓這些產品線具備面向未來的韌性。
And this is critical because we're seeing new competition in those markets from the Chinese.
這點至關重要,因為我們在那些市場看到來自中國品牌的新競爭。
And so our pickup strategy is a global strategy. We're trying to learn from the past where we're trying to future-proof it in a way from oil shocks or movement of powertrain to actually price points.
因此,我們的皮卡策略是一個全球策略。我們試圖從過去學習,以一種能夠因應油價衝擊、動力系統轉移,乃至於價格帶變化的方式,讓它具備面向未來的韌性。
Operator
Operator
Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research
Emmanuel Rosner,Wolfe Research
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Great. Thank you so much. Could you give us a sense of expected cadence of earnings over the rest of the year? And in particular, maybe drivers of the much lower pace of earnings over the rest of it. With having done $3.5 billion in the first quarter, that means you're guiding at midpoint for $6 billion combined over the next 3, which is quite low, I guess, by historical standard. I understand that commodities is obviously going to get sequentially quite a bit worse, but then I would have thought the Novelis cost would also start going away in the second half. So maybe some of the puts and takes and the cadence, please.
很好。非常感謝。你們能否讓我們了解一下今年剩餘期間獲利的預期節奏(cadence)?尤其是,推動今年剩餘期間獲利步伐明顯放緩的因素有哪些?第一季做出 35 億美元,代表你們在指引中位數下,接下來三季合計約 60 億美元,按歷史標準看起來相當低。我理解大宗商品(commodities)確實會在序列上明顯惡化,但我原本也以為 Novelis 的成本在下半年應該會開始消退。所以能否請你們談談其中的利弊得失(puts and takes)以及節奏?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. So as you move into the next half, obviously, one of the big things is you're not going to have the repeat of IEEPA, that's $1.3 billion positive. As you said, with respect to Novelis, as we start to gain more volume, what we are going to be hit more as we're more towards the end of the year on commodities, as I alluded to earlier.
是的。因此當你進入下半年,顯然其中一個重大因素是 IEEPA 不會再重複出現,那是 13 億美元的正面貢獻。如你所說,關於 Novelis,隨著我們開始取得更多產量,我們在接近年底時會受到更多大宗商品因素的衝擊,正如我先前提到的。
And also, the other thing is we are investing more in our launches right now, and that's going to be in BESS, our battery electric stationary storage business, the UEV platform, and also Oakville in Canada. So we have those investments that are going in and ramping as we exit the year. And that's -- there's cash elements of that too, not just CapEx. So that, and commodities, non-repeated IEEPA. But then the positive is Novelis.
另外一點是,我們目前正在加大對新產品/新項目上市(launches)的投資,這將投入在 BESS(我們的電池電動固定式儲能業務)、UEV 平台,以及加拿大 Oakville。因此,隨著我們接近年底,這些投資會持續投入並逐步爬坡。而且其中也包含現金支出要素,不僅僅是資本支出(CapEx)。所以,這些因素加上大宗商品,以及不再重複的 IEEPA。但正面因素則是 Novelis。
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Okay. And cadence-wise, sorry, and then I have another follow-up question. But any sense on is the degradation mostly in the second half? Or is the second quarter ex IEEPA also quite a bit lower?
好的。就節奏方面,不好意思,然後我還有一個追問。但你們是否覺得惡化主要發生在下半年?還是說第二季(不含 IEEPA)也會明顯更低?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Fairly consistent, I would say, as is Q2; Q3 and Q4.
我會說相當一致,第二季也是如此;第三季和第四季也是。
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Okay. And then my second question is on free cash flow. Can you give us a bit of color on why free cash flow was almost a burn of $2 billion when EBIT was quite robust even ex IEEPA. But I think most importantly, in the guidance, you're not flowing through any of the improved EBIT to the full year free cash flow guidance even though it seems to be driven by better underlying performance. Why is that?
好的。那我第二個問題是關於自由現金流。能否請你們多說明一下,為什麼在 EBIT(即使不含 IEEPA)相當強勁的情況下,自由現金流卻幾乎淨流出 20 億美元?但我認為最重要的是,在指引中,你們並沒有把 EBIT 改善帶來的增量反映到全年自由現金流指引裡,儘管看起來這是由更好的基本面表現所驅動。這是為什麼?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, So let me hit your first question first. So with respect to the $1.9 billion usage in the quarter, it's very typical for us as you move from Q4 to Q1 to have a usage of cash. And that's because of the higher working capital that is needed. We're typically, at that point, you are drawing down on inventory, you're not typically producing as much the last couple of weeks of the year.
是的,那我先回答你第一個問題。就本季 19 億美元的現金使用而言,對我們來說,從第四季走到第一季出現現金使用是很典型的。原因是需要較高的營運資金。通常在那個時間點,你是在消化庫存,而在年底最後幾週通常不會生產那麼多。
That was amplified for us with the Novelis disruption as well. And you're paying out your payables. So you're going to have that negative start.
再加上 Novelis 的中斷也放大了這個影響。而且你也在支付應付帳款。所以一開始就會是負向。
In addition, for us, this quarter, our net spending was up. And as I said, we're investing in our future. We've been really transparent about $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion this year, and you're spending on UEV, you're spending on BESS, we're spending on the future. And then also there's timing differences in there. And we pay our compensation bonuses in Q1.
另外,對我們來說,本季的淨支出增加了。如我所說,我們是在投資未來。我們一直很透明地說今年資本支出會在 95 億到 105 億美元之間,你在 UEV 上花錢、在 BESS 上花錢,我們是在為未來投入。此外其中也有一些時點差異。而且我們在第一季支付薪酬獎金。
You also have timing differences associated with marketing incentive spends that are taking place as well.
你也會看到與行銷激勵支出相關的時點差異正在發生。
So those are the big components. We do expect this to reverse. We do expect our free cash flow guidance to stay at $5 billion to $6 billion. The big change, as you know, was the IEEPA tariff of the $1.3 billion, and that we don't have certainty as to when that is going to come in. So we did not put that in the guidance at this time.
所以這些是主要構成。我們確實預期這會回轉。我們也預期自由現金流指引會維持在 50 億到 60 億美元。如你所知,最大的變動是 IEEPA 關稅的 13 億美元,而我們不確定那筆款項何時會進來。因此目前我們沒有把它納入指引。
If we get certainty that that's going to be sooner, then we will certainly update accordingly. And we thought it's a little bit early to be pulling through some of the other cash items given some of the volatility that we're working through.
如果我們能確定它會更早到位,那我們當然會相應更新。而且考量到我們正在應對的一些波動,我們認為現在就把其他現金項目提前反映進來還稍嫌過早。
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Great. Thank you so much.
很好。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank Research.
德意志銀行研究部 Edison Yu。
Edison Yu - Analyst
Edison Yu - Analyst
Hey, thanks for taking our question. I wanted to come back to something that you mentioned earlier about the US industrial base. How sensible or how realistic is it for Ford to play a bigger role in the kind of defense complex in terms of supplying the Pentagon?
嗨,謝謝讓我們提問。我想回到你先前提到的美國工業基礎。就向五角大廈供應而言,福特在國防體系中扮演更大角色有多可行、或多現實?
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Well, thank you for your question. As the most American company, Ford is always called to answer to duty to support our country. It was ventilators in COVID, of course, the arsenal democracy. We work with -- as you know, we are very successful with our government sales and business in Pro. And so we have very close relationships through the vehicle side.
好的,謝謝你的問題。作為最具美國代表性的公司,福特一直被要求在需要時挺身而出、支持國家。從 COVID 期間的呼吸器,當然還有「民主兵工廠」。如你所知,我們在 Pro 事業的政府銷售與業務方面非常成功。因此在車輛端我們有非常緊密的關係。
What I'd be able to say at this point is two things. First of all, we are in early discussions with the US government on some defense-related projects. We're not going to go into details of those today. In addition, and I would say equally important, is Ford's role as an anchor customer on onshoring critical minerals and many other supply chain vulnerabilities we have in the country.
就目前我能說的是兩點。第一,我們正與美國政府就一些國防相關專案進行初步討論。今天我們不會深入細節。另外,我認為同樣重要的是,福特作為關鍵礦物在地化(onshoring)的錨定客戶,以及我們國內在許多其他供應鏈脆弱點上的角色。
And I think you should expect Ford to play an outsized role in manufacture-grade semiconductors, critical minerals like batteries and rare earths.
我認為你應該預期福特會在製造級半導體、電池與稀土等關鍵礦物方面扮演更突出的角色。
And our supply chain is heavily engaged, not only with our government, but new companies that are starting to emerge in our country to onshore some of this capability. And I think maybe perhaps in the short term, that's the biggest role Ford can play in helping our country.
而且我們的供應鏈團隊高度投入,不僅與政府合作,也與國內新興公司合作,把其中一些能力移回國內。我想也許在短期內,這就是福特能在協助國家方面扮演的最大角色。
Edison Yu - Analyst
Edison Yu - Analyst
Understood. Understood. And then a separate topic, just coming back to autonomy, it seems that robotaxi, there's a lot more appetite now for some of these tech companies like Uber, they've sort of quasi-subsidized the OEMs. Has your kind of thinking about robotaxi maybe evolved over the last three or four months?
了解。了解。那另一個話題,回到自動駕駛,看起來現在對 robotaxi 的胃納更高了,一些科技公司像 Uber,某種程度上算是在準補貼 OEM。你們對 robotaxi 的看法在過去三、四個月是否有所演變?
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
I would say yes. Not just over the last three or four months, it's something we've been, frankly, watching carefully as it evolves because we were involved in Argo and are very well aware of both managing the fleet and the SDS system itself and the progress. We kind of knew from Argo what to look for as robotaxis became -- the SDS itself became more proficient and we're starting to see that now.
我會說是的。不只是過去三、四個月,坦白說我們一直在密切觀察其演進,因為我們曾參與 Argo,也非常清楚車隊營運管理以及 SDS 系統本身與其進展。我們從 Argo 的經驗中大致知道,當 robotaxi 發展時該看哪些指標——SDS 本身變得更成熟,而我們現在開始看到這一點。
I think how you should think about Ford's approach is that we are completely focused on having the most efficient EV and the lowest cost of ownership in North America, number one. And number two, because of our Pro business, we have the most fit repair and fleet management capability for new fleets, all fleets. And that capability can be applied to all sorts of different fleets. That's how we think about the market as it emerges. And I think that's all we're prepared to say at this point.
我認為你應該這樣看福特的做法:第一,我們完全聚焦在北美打造最高效率的電動車,以及最低的持有成本。第二,因為我們的 Pro 業務,我們具備最適配的維修與車隊管理能力,能服務新車隊、各種車隊。這項能力可以應用在各式各樣的車隊上。這就是我們看待市場成形的方式。而目前我們能說的大概就到這裡。
Operator
Operator
Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.
摩根大通 Ryan Brinkman。
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Thanks for taking the question. Is there any update you might be able to provide on the relatively recently announced Ford Energy business? Has there been maybe proactive outreach to Ford from companies that you have existing B2B relationships with on the Pro side of the business? How would you characterize that interest? And maybe just remind on potential timing there.
謝謝讓我提問。關於不久前宣布的 Ford Energy 業務,你們是否能提供任何最新進展?在 Pro 端既有的 B2B 關係中,是否有公司主動與福特接洽?你會如何形容這樣的興趣程度?另外也請提醒一下可能的時程。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ryan, well, as you know, we are committed to over 20 gigawatt hours capacity starting in the fourth quarter of next year. That will be mostly Kentucky One and a little bit of Marshall. Marshall will be really focused on UEV, but has some capacity for our Energy business. So that's the timing, starting fourth quarter next year. The plants are coming online.
謝謝你,Ryan。如你所知,我們承諾自明年第四季起將有超過 20 GWh 的產能。主要會來自 Kentucky One,另外有一小部分來自 Marshall。Marshall 會主要聚焦在 UEV,但也會保留一些產能給我們的 Energy 業務。所以時程就是從明年第四季開始。工廠正在陸續投產。
We are on track in industrial manufacturing capability of doing DC block. It's not just the batteries themselves, it's the containers, it's the management of the battery. That's all coming together as we expected.
我們在工業製造能力方面正按計畫推進 DC block。不只是電池本體,還包括容器以及電池管理。這些都如我們預期般逐步到位。
We are very active in contracting customers as we speak. We've had a lot of inbounds and a lot of interest in Ford because they understand that we have the best tech, we have a lot of advantages financially, and we have a great service and sales capability. And of course, the company has deep relationships with a lot of these as vehicle customers. So they know us. They know through Pro that we're a reliable company.
我們目前正積極與客戶簽約。我們收到很多主動洽詢,也看到對福特的高度興趣,因為他們了解我們擁有最好的技術、在財務上有許多優勢,並且具備很強的服務與銷售能力。當然,公司與其中許多客戶在車輛採購上也有深厚關係。所以他們認識我們。他們也透過 Pro 了解我們是一家可靠的公司。
And all I would say, Ryan, is that the Energy business is the key element of our bridge to 8% margin.
Ryan,我想說的是,能源業務是我們通往 8% 利潤率這座「橋樑」的關鍵要素。
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Great. And then just as my follow-up, around the same time that Ford Energy was announced, you also broke news of the new strategic partnership with Renault. So I was just wondering if there might be any kind of update you can provide there too given that the first vehicles that were announced were electric vehicles. And I think that's an important piece of solving the puzzle in Europe. But I met with Hans Schep during the quarter, super energized about Renault on the commercial vehicle side in Europe.
很好。接著作為追問,在宣布 Ford Energy 的差不多同一時間,你們也公布了與雷諾的新策略夥伴關係。所以我想知道,鑑於最先公布的車款是電動車,你是否能提供任何最新進展。我認為這是解決歐洲拼圖的重要一塊。但我在本季與 Hans Schep 會面時,他對雷諾在歐洲商用車領域的合作非常振奮。
What do you think the broader potential for collaboration there might be?
你認為在那方面更廣泛的合作潛力可能是什麼?
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ryan, for your question; it's very pertinent. At this point, all we would say is that we believe that on the passenger car side, Renault has fully cost-competitive platforms. And we intend to take advantage of that as Europe continues to electrify amidst the Chinese competition on passenger cars. On commercial, we have a very successful relationship, as you know, with Volkswagen, both on the pickup and the van side. And we have nothing to announce today, but certainly, John, myself and the whole team are very focused on taking advantage of the Renault relationship across all of our businesses.
Ryan,謝謝你的提問;非常切中要點。目前我們能說的是,我們相信在乘用車方面,雷諾擁有完全具成本競爭力的平台。隨著歐洲在中國乘用車競爭之下持續電動化,我們打算善用這一點。在商用車方面,如你所知,我們與福斯在皮卡與廂型車領域都有非常成功的合作關係。今天我們沒有要宣布的內容,但 John、我以及整個團隊都非常專注於在我們所有業務中善用與雷諾的關係。
And our commercial business at this point is still very profitable in Europe. We see it as the core of our profitability in the future on the vehicle side. And so we will do everything we need to, to maximize our scale and our cost advantage on commercial in Europe.
而且我們目前在歐洲的商用車業務仍然非常獲利。我們將其視為未來在車輛端獲利能力的核心。因此,我們會採取一切必要措施,最大化我們在歐洲商用車的規模與成本優勢。
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Ryan Brinkman - Analyst
Great to hear. Thank you.
很高興聽到。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo 的 Colin Langan。
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Great, Thanks for taking my questions. Just as I'm looking at Slide 10, there's a $900 million of other, kind of unusual to have such a large item. Any color on what that is? And then also looking on that slide, cost is only $700 million positive and includes the IEEPA. I think the target is that you're supposed to get a $1 billion of cost benefit for the year, which would mean underlying costs was actually worse year-over-year in Q1. So what is driving the weaker Q1 cost?
很好,謝謝讓我提問。我在看第 10 頁投影片時,看到有 9 億美元的「其他」項目,這麼大的金額有點不尋常。能否說明一下那是什麼?另外同一頁上,成本只有 7 億美元的正向貢獻,而且包含 IEEPA。我記得你們今年的目標應該是取得 10 億美元的成本效益,這表示若看 Q1、扣除 IEEPA 的話,基礎成本其實是年增變差。所以是什麼導致 Q1 成本較弱?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Well, first off, let me just hit on your question on other. That's really related to services, both physical and software. So that's where that's showing up.
好,首先先回應你對「其他」的問題。那主要與服務相關,包含實體服務與軟體服務。所以那部分就反映在這裡。
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
So you had $900 million of software EBIT?
所以你們有 9 億美元的軟體 EBIT?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
We also had compliance benefits, services, physical and software credit as well.
我們也有合規帶來的效益,以及服務項目,包含實體與軟體的抵減/抵扣(credit)。
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Okay. And then the cost piece, is that just the cost savings pickup in the second half of the year?
了解。那成本那一塊,是不是只是成本節省會在下半年才顯現?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
This cost savings, if you're on Slide 10, was related to the -- you're talking about the Q1 bridge going from $1.3 billion in Ford Pro to the $1.7 billion?
如果你看第 10 頁,這個成本節省是跟——你是在說 Q1 的橋接,從 Ford Pro 的 13 億美元到 17 億美元那段嗎?
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Yeah, well, I was just saying in the bridge, it's $700 million positive, but that includes $1.3 billion of IEEPA, and I thought your target for the year-
對,我的意思是,在橋接表裡成本是 7 億美元的正向,但其中包含 13 億美元的 IEEPA,而我以為你們今年的目標——
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
It does include IEEPA, that's right.
沒錯,確實包含 IEEPA。
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
So that means ex IEEPA, it was negative. So I'm just wondering why it's negative if the target for the year is $1 billion positive cost.
所以這表示扣除 IEEPA 之後是負的。我只是想知道,若今年目標是成本正向 10 億美元,為什麼會是負的?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Well, you have Novelis in there as well.
因為裡面也包含 Novelis。
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Okay. And then just lastly, if I go to Slide 18 and I add up all the items, it does seem like it's a little short of some good news. It seems like about $900 million short of all the items listed on that slide. What is that? Is that volume?
了解。最後,如果我看第 18 頁投影片,把所有項目加總起來,似乎比一些好消息少了一點。看起來比該頁列出的所有項目合計少了大約 9 億美元。那是什麼?是銷量(volume)嗎?
You did mention regulatory savings. Just other cost savings that we're kind of missing in the walk?
你們有提到法規節省。是不是還有其他成本節省,在這個拆解/走勢表(walk)裡我們漏掉了?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
I would say, yes, it's a variety of other savings throughout the company as well. So we thought that really it's -- cost is fairly flat on a year-over-year basis. We're really presenting very close to what we presented in the past. The big changes as we've gone into this guide is we have the $1.3 billion resulting from the IEEPA Supreme Court ruling, then we had the increase in the commodities, which is offsetting. So when you look at all of that together, you're really looking at a pretty flat picture year-over-year because we already had a number of items that were offsetting.
我會說是的,那是公司各處各種其他節省的綜合。所以我們認為成本在年對年基礎上相當持平。我們呈現的方式也非常接近過去的呈現。這次指引最大的變化是:我們有 13 億美元,來自 IEEPA 最高法院裁決的結果;接著大宗商品成本上升,形成抵銷。把這些合在一起看,你會看到年對年的圖像相當平坦,因為我們原本就有多個互相抵銷的項目。
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Colin M. Langan - Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions.
謝謝回答我的問題。
Operator
Operator
James Picariello, BNP Paribas.
BNP Paribas 的 James Picariello。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Thanks. Okay.
謝謝。好的。
Operator
Operator
We can hear you. Please go ahead.
我們聽得到你。請繼續。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
So I first want to ask about what's the level of confidence behind the 150,000 Novelis recovery units, based on what you seen in your own production through the first quarter, just where are we at on that?
我首先想問,對於 15 萬個 Novelis 復原(recovery)產量單位的信心程度如何?根據你們第一季自身的生產情況,目前進度到哪裡了?
And then as we think about the raw materials, right, the $2 billion now in core commodities plus the $1.75 billion in alternative aluminum sourcing, what was captured in the first quarter on that combined bucket for raw mats? And just how should we think about the cadence for the rest of the year?
接著談到原物料:現在核心大宗商品是 20 億美元,加上替代鋁材採購 17.5 億美元,第一季在這個合併的原物料項目(bucket)中實際反映了多少?以及今年剩餘時間的節奏(cadence)應該怎麼看?
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Thank you. So on the Novelis recovery and the rebuild of the mill, I would say the confidence is high. As Jim and I stated earlier, the restart date is on track. All the enablers for the ramp-up are on track. And belt-and-suspenders, if anything does go off, we have contingency plans, which means we have additional aluminum supply to ensure production. So we feel good about the second half aluminum supply.
謝謝。關於 Novelis 的復原以及軋鋁廠的重建,我會說信心很高。如同 Jim 和我先前提到的,重啟日期按計畫進行。所有推動爬坡(ramp-up)的關鍵要素也都在軌道上。而且我們也採取「雙保險」做法:如果有任何環節出狀況,我們有應變計畫,也就是額外的鋁材供應,以確保生產。所以我們對下半年的鋁材供應感覺良好。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
And not only our supply perspective, but also, as Andrew said and in the speech, we have a -- we're in a really good stock situation too. So we're very confident we're going to need those units.
不僅是供應面,另外如 Andrew 所說、也在講稿中提到,我們的庫存狀況也非常好。所以我們非常有信心,我們會需要那些產量單位。
Alicia Boler Davis - President - Ford Pro
Alicia Boler Davis - President - Ford Pro
And I can just comment as well from a Pro perspective, we still have very strong '26 model year orders. We just opened up '27. Those are -- we're seeing positive indicators. And when you think about the Novelis impacts, we really postponed fleet orders, and they're going to be required and needed in the second half, and we haven't lost a customer. So we are very confident in the demand in the second half of the year.
我也可以從 Pro 的角度補充一下,我們 2026 年式的訂單仍然非常強勁。我們剛開放 2027 年式。我們看到的指標是正向的。而談到 Novelis 的影響,我們其實是延後了車隊(fleet)訂單,而這些訂單在下半年將會被要求、也會需要交付,而且我們沒有流失任何客戶。因此,我們對下半年的需求非常有信心。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and I guess, I would just say that-
對,我想我只想說——
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Just on the cost side?
只談成本那一塊?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we continue with respect to Novelis, to expect a total cost of between $1.5 billion to $2 billion. We're tracking on target with respect to that. Yes, I think you had a specific question in Q1 related to temporary cost to source aluminum. It's about $300 million.
對,關於 Novelis,我們仍預期總成本介於 15 億到 20 億美元之間。就這點而言,我們的追蹤進度符合目標。是的,我想你在問第一季與臨時採購鋁材相關的成本。大約是 3 億美元。
So that would include tariffs, expedited freight and warehousing as well. These things aren't straight line and there's just a lot of factors that are involved.
因此這也會包括關稅、加急運輸以及倉儲等。這些事情並不是線性變化的,牽涉到的因素很多。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then just as I think about the $1 billion in the UEV platform and the Marshall plant, is that more second half weighted or pretty ratable through the year in terms of just the investment? And that's still tracking towards the $1 billion, right?
了解。這很有幫助。另外,當我想到 UEV 平台與 Marshall 工廠的 10 億美元投入時,就投資節奏而言,是比較偏向下半年,還是全年相對平均地投入?而且仍然是朝著 10 億美元的目標在推進,對吧?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
So it's going to be -- the UEV investments, we're already making some of those. We're going to continue to make come through Q2, Q3 and Q4. They will go up a bit as you get to Q3 and Q4. And then we also, as I said, we've got BESS in there as well and we also have the Oakville launch during that period of time also. So three major items that are increasing in terms of investment.
所以會是——UEV 的投資,我們已經在進行其中一部分了。我們會在第二季、第三季和第四季持續投入。到了第三季和第四季會再增加一些。另外,如我所說,我們也把 BESS 納入其中,而且在那段期間也會有 Oakville 的上市導入。所以有三個主要項目在投資面上都在增加。
Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.
Itay Michaeli,TD Cowen。
Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst
Great. Thanks. Hi, everybody. Just a couple of questions on the UEV platform. I'm just curious sort of what's left to do here as you prepare for next year's launch. And maybe thinking even out to 2029 towards your breakeven or profitability objective for Model e, how should we think about roughly the number of top hats that you're planning to launch on that platform?
很好。謝謝。大家好。我有幾個關於 UEV 平台的問題。我想了解一下,在為明年的上市做準備時,這裡還剩下哪些工作要完成。另外,若把時間拉長到 2029 年、朝著 Model e 的損益兩平或獲利目標來看,我們應該如何思考你們計畫在該平台上推出的大致「車型上裝(top hats)」數量?
And maybe just lastly, if I can sneak it in, in the past, you've mentioned using some new suppliers for UEV. Any more updates you can share on how that's going? Thank you.
最後如果我可以再補問一下,過去你們提到 UEV 會採用一些新的供應商。關於進展,有沒有更多更新可以分享?謝謝。
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
So Itay, this is Kumar. Answering your first question on the, let's say, the industrial launch of the product. There are four major pieces to it. There's the hardware of key new parts, like mega castings. UEV has its own software platform, so development and testing of that platform.
Itay,我是 Kumar。先回答你第一個問題,關於我們所說的產品工業化上市導入。主要有四個部分。第一是關鍵新零件的硬體,例如大型一體化鑄件(mega castings)。UEV 也有自己的軟體平台,因此還包括該平台的開發與測試。
Third is the readiness of our suppliers with all the parts that are coming from suppliers. And lastly, number four is equipment installation at our plant.
第三是供應商端的就緒程度,包含所有由供應商提供的零件。最後第四是我們工廠的設備安裝。
We're in the middle of all four of these right now and all enablers and all indicators -- early indicators of these forward streams are on track. So we feel good about it.
我們目前正同時推進這四個部分,而所有促成因素與指標——這些工作流的早期指標——都在軌道上。所以我們對此感覺良好。
Your second piece of question, number of top hats. As we've mentioned, it is the platform. We plan to have high volume at Louisville. But I think it's -- we don't want to give away our plan to competition by talking about how many top hats or which top hats. It would be too early to do that.
你第二部分的問題是 top hats 的數量。如我們提過,這是一個平台。我們計畫在 Louisville 做高產量。但我想——我們不想透過談論有多少 top hats 或是哪一些 top hats,把我們的計畫透露給競爭對手。現在談這個還太早。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
The launch is bigger than the industrial launch, so we want to give you a little bit of insight into the demand creation because that's critical for us.
上市不只是工業化導入那麼簡單,因此我們想讓你稍微了解一下需求創造的部分,因為那對我們很關鍵。
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue
Yeah, this is Andrew. We're confident on our launch plan. In fact, we're right on track to share our plans with dealers and take customer orders later this year. And what we're really excited about is some of the EV market trends that we're seeing, and the EV volume really heading towards the affordable space, which really favors this affordable UEV platform positioning us right in the heart of the market.
對,我是 Andrew。我們對上市計畫很有信心。事實上,我們正按計畫在今年稍晚與經銷商分享我們的規劃,並開始接受客戶訂單。而我們真正感到興奮的是,我們看到一些電動車市場趨勢:電動車銷量正朝向更可負擔的區間發展,這非常有利於這個平價 UEV 平台,讓我們正好站在市場核心位置。
So we're really pleased with that.
所以我們對此非常滿意。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
I think the market is already predisposed to this price point, but now it feels like in the US, the EV market is moving even closer to the UEV platform. And there's really not much choice on a fully specced, highly capable technological vehicle platform that's really affordable, there's not a lot of choice for customers. A lot of compliance vehicles, but this is a real legitimate, fully capable product for customers.
我認為市場本來就已經傾向於這個價位帶,但現在看起來在美國,電動車市場正更進一步往 UEV 平台靠攏。而在「規格齊全、能力很強、技術含量高」且真正可負擔的車輛平台方面,客戶其實選擇不多。市面上有很多是為了法規合規而推出的車款,但這是一個真正名副其實、功能完整的產品,提供給客戶。
So we think the market is really moving. And we understand that. That's why we're working so hard on the demand creation.
所以我們認為市場確實在移動。而我們也理解這一點。這就是為什麼我們在需求創造上如此努力。
I think UEV is on -- as far as the new suppliers, do you want to mention anything about the new suppliers, Kumar.
至於 UEV——關於新的供應商,你要不要提一下新的供應商情況,Kumar。
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, I would say that the UEV team took a very interesting approach. We did the toughest and the most complex commodities, we design them in-house. This gives us a lot of control over those commodities and it gives us the ability to source those commodities at the highest quality and the best cost, price points from new suppliers. And these new suppliers have been great partners.
好的,我會說 UEV 團隊採取了一個非常有意思的方法。我們把最困難、最複雜的品類由內部自行設計。這讓我們對這些品類有很高的掌控度,也讓我們能夠從新的供應商那裡,以最高品質與最佳成本、價格點來採購這些品類。而這些新供應商一直是很棒的合作夥伴。
And we are working towards using that capability, both the process as well as the new supply base, in the rest of our portfolio.
我們也正努力把這項能力——包括流程以及新的供應基礎——運用到我們其餘的產品組合中。
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
Jim Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer
What's exciting for me is to see the team's pollination of the UEV process, new suppliers, new way of developing a vehicle, new IT tools that the development team uses, it's really starting to spread across the company. And to me, that's very encouraging to see, because the greatest gift for UEV will likely be what it gives our -- all of our other models and our team as a whole.
對我來說令人興奮的是,看到團隊把 UEV 的流程、新供應商、新的造車開發方式、以及開發團隊使用的新 IT 工具「交叉授粉」,而且真的開始在公司內部擴散。對我而言,看到這點非常令人鼓舞,因為 UEV 最大的禮物,很可能是它能帶給我們——所有其他車型以及整個團隊——的價值。
Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst
Absolutely. That's very helpful. Thank you.
完全同意。這非常有幫助。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the Ford Motor Company first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
以上為福特汽車公司 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。