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Operator
Operator
Good day, everyone. My name is Rani, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
各位好。我叫 Rani,今天將擔任本次電話會議的接線員。此刻,我謹代表福特汽車公司,歡迎各位參加 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Maria Ricciardone, Chief Investor Relations Officer.
現在,我想把電話交給投資人關係長 Maria Ricciardone。
Maria Ricciardone - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Maria Ricciardone - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Thank you, Rani, and welcome to Ford Motor Company's third quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm Maria Ricciardone, Ford's Chief Investor Relations Officer.
謝謝你,Rani,也歡迎各位參加福特汽車公司 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我是 Maria Ricciardone,福特投資人關係長。
With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and Sherry House, CFO. Joining us for Q&A are Andrew Frick, President of Ford Blue and Model e; Alicia Boler Davis, President of Ford Pro; Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer; Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit; and Dave Carroll, President of Ford Energy.
今天與我一同出席的有總裁暨執行長 Jim Farley,以及財務長 Sherry House。參與問答的還有:Ford Blue 與 Model e 總裁 Andrew Frick;Ford Pro 總裁 Alicia Boler Davis;營運長 Kumar Galhotra;Ford Credit 執行長 Cathy O'Callaghan;以及 Ford Energy 總裁 Dave Carroll。
Jim will give a high-level overview of the business, and Sherry will provide added texture on the financials and guidance. We will be referencing non-GAAP measures today. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck at shareholder.ford.com.
Jim 將就業務提供高層次概覽,Sherry 則會就財務表現與財測提供更多細節。我們今天將引用非 GAAP 指標。這些指標已在我們財報簡報附錄中,與最可比的美國 GAAP 指標進行調節。您可在 shareholder.ford.com 找到該簡報。
Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ. The most significant risk factors are included on Page 20 of our deck. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis. Upcoming IR engagements include Sherry House at the Barclays Global Auto and Mobility Tech Conference in New York on November 18.
我們的討論也包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能有所不同。最重要的風險因素列於簡報第 20 頁。除非另有說明,所有比較皆為年對年。公司 EBIT、EPS 與自由現金流皆以調整後基礎呈現。即將進行的投資人關係活動包括:Sherry House 將於 11 月 18 日在紐約出席巴克萊全球汽車與移動科技大會。
Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.
現在我把電話交給 Jim。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Maria. Ford delivered another strong quarter, thanks to our great products, our services and execution. I want to thank our employees and our dealers, all of our suppliers for this progress and for their commitment to Ford+.
謝謝你,Maria。憑藉我們優秀的產品、服務與執行力,福特再度交出強勁的一季。我要感謝我們的員工與經銷商,以及所有供應商,感謝大家在推動這些進展與對 Ford+ 的承諾。
In the third quarter, as you know, we generated $2.7 billion in adjusted EBIT. We're raising our low end of our previous full year adjusted EBIT guidance and now expect to earn between $10.5 billion and $11 billion.
如各位所知,第三季我們創造了 27 億美元的調整後 EBIT。我們上調先前全年調整後 EBIT 財測的下緣,現在預期全年將介於 105 億至 110 億美元。
Our strategy is clear: Number one, grow our auto business with a whole new generation of vehicles focused on North America, focused on transforming our EV business and global products with much less capital. Number two, aggressively expand our auto adjacencies: software, services and parts, while strengthening our financing capability. And third, diversifying with Ford Energy. The objective is a more profitable, capital efficient and resilient Ford, one that achieves 8% adjusted EBIT margins by 2029 and deliver sustained earnings, cash flow and returns to our shareholders over time.
我們的策略很清楚:第一,以全新一代車款擴大汽車本業成長,聚焦北美、聚焦轉型我們的電動車業務,並以更少資本打造全球產品。第二,積極擴張汽車周邊業務:軟體、服務與零件,同時強化我們的融資能力。第三,透過 Ford Energy 進行多元化。目標是打造更高獲利、更具資本效率且更具韌性的福特:在 2029 年達成 8% 的調整後 EBIT 利潤率,並隨時間為股東帶來可持續的獲利、現金流與報酬。
Let's start with our vehicles. In the third quarter, we continue to focus on the portfolio that leans into our strengths, truck, vans and utilities. Our pickup lineup gives customers an unmatched breadth of choice between vehicles, prices, trims and powertrains. In Q3, F-Series captured the highest retail share among all full-size truck brands and is on pace for the 50th straight year as America's best-selling truck. Maverick is America's best-selling hybrid pickup.
先從我們的車款談起。第三季我們持續聚焦於發揮優勢的產品組合:皮卡、廂型車與 SUV。我們的皮卡產品線在車型、價格、配備等級與動力系統之間,為客戶提供無可匹敵的多元選擇。第三季,F-Series 在所有全尺寸卡車品牌中拿下最高零售市占,並有望連續第 50 年成為美國最暢銷卡車。Maverick 是美國最暢銷的油電混合皮卡。
Internationally, Ranger leads in many markets, including Australia and Europe. Early demand for the Ranger Super Duty is very strong already number 1 in heavy-duty medium-sized truck market in Australia in its first year, opening a very profitable opportunity for us. Transit continues to be the best-selling van in the US Ford also leads in three-row SUVs in the US with the Expedition and Explorer.
在國際市場方面,Ranger 在多個市場領先,包括澳洲與歐洲。Ranger Super Duty 的早期需求已非常強勁,在澳洲上市第一年就已是中型重載卡車市場第 1 名,為我們開啟一個獲利性極高的機會。Transit 仍是美國最暢銷的廂型車;福特也憑藉 Expedition 與 Explorer,在美國三排座 SUV 市場領先。
We're also expanding access to customers through Ford Blue Oval Advantage, our certified preowned program, making Ford now the number 1 certified preowned brand in the US This program builds customer loyalty and positions Ford for our affordable new vehicles that will be coming in the next couple of years to our showrooms, and it really helps our resale values. In fact, we found that these used customers are 50% more likely than typical used car buyers to purchase a new Ford.
我們也透過 Ford Blue Oval Advantage(我們的原廠認證中古車計畫)擴大觸及客戶,使福特成為美國第 1 大原廠認證中古車品牌。此計畫能建立客戶忠誠度,並讓福特為未來幾年將進入展間的平價新車做好布局,同時也確實有助於提升我們的二手轉售價值。事實上,我們發現,這些中古車客戶相較於一般中古車買家,購買全新福特的可能性高出 50%。
The foundation of our sustained growth is world-class quality. Of course, topping the J.D. Power's 2026 IQS study and reduction we've seen in warranty coverages is encouraging to all of us. Excluding Novelis and tariffs, we reduced warranty and material costs by $1.5 billion in '25 and are on track to reduce another $1 billion this year. But we have much more to do especially on long-term durability and the ownership experience.
我們持續成長的基礎是世界級品質。當然,在 J.D. Power 2026 年 IQS 研究中名列前茅,以及我們在保固支出下降方面所看到的改善,都令我們備受鼓舞。若排除 Novelis 與關稅因素,我們在 2025 年將保固與材料成本降低了 15 億美元,並正按計畫在今年再降低 10 億美元。但我們還有更多工作要做,特別是在長期耐久性與車主使用體驗方面。
We are accelerating our industrial system, including very aggressive next-generation vehicle cost reduction targets. The goal is a world-class industrial system, one that makes cost competitiveness and quality repeatable.
我們正在加速推進工業體系,包括非常積極的下一代車款降本目標。目標是建立世界級的工業體系,讓成本競爭力與品質能夠可重複、可持續地達成。
Our Super Duty launch in Oakville, Ontario is an important example of this discipline. The production ramp is already exceeding planned daily volume and jobs per hour rates. We reached OK-to-Buy last week and began shipping trucks to dealerships, and the quality we're seeing is fully competitive with our existing Super Duty plant, which is number 1 in J.D. Power.
我們在加拿大安大略省 Oakville 的 Super Duty 投產,就是這種紀律的重要例證。目前產能爬坡已超越原先規劃的每日產量與每工時作業量(jobs per hour)指標。我們上週達成 OK-to-Buy,並開始向經銷商出貨卡車;目前看到的品質表現,已完全可與我們既有的 Super Duty 工廠競爭,而該工廠在 J.D. Power 評比中排名第 1。
The added capacity will give us flexibility for future plant changeovers and support profitable growth in retail, rental and upfitter channels. We're bringing the same discipline to the next-generation F-150. Portotypes begin, builds are beginning in first quarter '27, just a couple of months away, we have an incredible powertrain durability testing, which is now fivefold increase to meet our bulletproof powertrain target at Ford. We're doubling endurance and strength testing and increasing full vehicle test mileage by nearly 60% to almost 4 million miles. The F-150 will be the most extensively tested truck ever at Ford and we will apply this exact same approach across our company.
新增產能將使我們在未來工廠改線時更具彈性,並支援零售、租賃與改裝商(upfitter)通路的獲利性成長。我們也以同樣的紀律推進下一代 F-150。Portotypes begin(原型車開始),試製將於 2027 年第一季開始,距今只剩幾個月;我們也進行了令人驚豔的動力系統耐久測試,規模已提升至原來的五倍,以達成福特「防彈等級」動力系統目標。我們將耐久與強度測試加倍,並把整車測試里程提高近 60%,接近 400 萬英里。F-150 將成為福特史上測試最全面的卡車,而我們也會把同樣的方法套用到全公司。
Alongside strengthening our best franchises, we're opening new paths to grow at more affordable price points. Next year, we will be launching our affordable midsize pickup for international markets. We expect the base material costs for this truck to be 20% lower than today's Ranger. Just as Maverick has done in the US, this truck is designed to bring new customers into the Ford truck lineup internationally at a cost structure that allows us to compete, in this case with the Chinese. And in Louisville, we are preparing the launch of the Fathom, our first vehicle off the UEV Platform.
在強化我們最具優勢的核心車系之際,我們也正開闢新的成長路徑,以更親民的價格帶切入。明年,我們將為國際市場推出平價中型皮卡。我們預期這款卡車的基礎材料成本將比現行 Ranger 低 20%。就像 Maverick 在美國所做到的一樣,這款車的設計目標是在國際市場以具競爭力的成本結構,為福特皮卡產品線帶來新客戶——在此情境下,我們要與中國品牌競爭。此外,在路易維爾(Louisville),我們正準備推出 Fathom,這將是我們 UEV 平台下線的第一款車。
Rigorous testing and early supplier preparation are central to that effort. The launch remains on track for fourth quarter next year. Yesterday, I had the opportunity to drive our prototype. Wow, it completely blew me away, 0 to 60, huge room inside, and the hands-free, ADAS experience was like something I've never experienced. Fathom is really a breakthrough product.
嚴謹的測試與供應商的提前準備是這項工作的核心。該產品上市仍按計畫於明年第四季進行。昨天,我有機會駕駛我們的原型車。哇,它真的讓我驚艷不已,0 到 60 的加速、車內空間非常寬敞,而且免持的 ADAS 體驗是我從未體驗過的。Fathom 真的是一款突破性的產品。
It's highly capable, innovative, affordable and that EV product will be available to more Americans way ahead of our competition. This will require high-level execution by our team to deliver on time and at cost. And the MSRP under $30,000 and the low cost of ownership is perfect for today's market. Fathom will offer something brand new for US EV customers, an advanced, zonal electric architecture, Ford's first 48-volt low-voltage system, along with a sophisticated advanced driver-assist capability, such as hands-free driving, an incredible rear-wheel drive performance feel and a lot of fun to drive.
它能力強、創新、價格可負擔,而且這款電動車產品將比競爭對手更早讓更多美國人買得到。這將需要我們團隊以高水準的執行力,才能按時並在成本目標內交付。而低於 30,000 美元的建議零售價(MSRP)以及低持有成本,非常符合當前市場需求。Fathom 將為美國電動車客戶帶來全新體驗:先進的分區式(zonal)電氣架構、Ford 首套 48 伏低壓系統,以及成熟的先進駕駛輔助能力,例如免持駕駛、令人驚豔的後輪驅動性能感受,並且非常好開、充滿樂趣。
And bidirectional charging, so you can power your home with a Fathom when rates are high or during an outage, and there's so much more to this product that we're excited to share with you.
還有雙向充電,因此當電價較高或停電時,你可以用 Fathom 為家中供電;而這款產品還有更多亮點,我們很期待與各位分享。
Switching gears to our growing auto services business, software services, parts and financing. Now these auto adjacencies deepen our customers' relationship with us and create downstream value by enabling us to earn more over the life of each vehicle. Both software services and parts businesses achieved record revenue in the third quarter at highly accretive margins.
接著談談我們持續成長的汽車服務業務,包括軟體服務、零件與融資。這些汽車周邊業務能加深我們與客戶的關係,並透過讓我們在每輛車的全生命週期中獲得更多收益來創造下游價值。第三季,軟體服務與零件業務皆以高度增益的利潤率創下營收新高。
An important linkage exists here between software and parts, connected services help us anticipate maintenance over time, including a whole new software product called Prognostics at Ford, bringing customers to our remote service vans, almost 5,000 of them now, and our dealer network to keep their vehicles running 24/7. We found that when a retail customer combines a software subscription with regular service, the retention of the customer, especially for parts, is about 9 points higher.
軟體與零件之間存在重要連結:連網服務可協助我們預測長期維護需求,其中包括 Ford 一款全新的軟體產品「Prognostics」,把客戶導向我們的遠端服務車隊(目前將近 5,000 輛)以及經銷商網路,讓他們的車輛 24/7 保持運行。我們發現,當零售客戶同時搭配軟體訂閱與定期保養時,客戶留存率(尤其是零件方面)約高出 9 個百分點。
In parts specifically, we grew our US wholesale business to third-party independent repair shops, and we've expanded a lot in Europe. A broader Motorcraft catalog also allows us to serve fleet customers of competitive brands and owners of much older Ford vehicles. And Ford Credit has had a great third quarter. Notably, together with Ford Pro, Credit launched Ford Pro Leasing in the third quarter.
在零件方面,我們擴大了美國批發業務,供應給第三方獨立維修廠,並且在歐洲也大幅擴張。更完整的 Motorcraft 產品目錄也讓我們能服務競品品牌的車隊客戶,以及擁有更老舊 Ford 車款的車主。而 Ford Credit 第三季表現也很出色。值得一提的是,Ford Credit 與 Ford Pro 在第三季共同推出 Ford Pro Leasing。
It's a big deal for Pro. And in commercial leasing to our fleet management, software and maintenance offerings will help us grow our Pro digital fleet management portfolio, which we will expect to be over 100,000 units by year-end. Many of those are non-Ford vehicles.
這對 Pro 來說意義重大。而在商用租賃方面,結合我們的車隊管理、軟體與維護方案,將有助於擴大 Pro 的數位車隊管理產品組合;我們預期年底前將超過 100,000 輛(單位)。其中許多並非 Ford 車輛。
Turning to Ford Energy. The investment thesis is very clear. Ford is going to solve a meaningful customer problem, build on Ford's advantage and offer a credible path to material earnings with attractive returns in the short term. Our starting point is US-manufactured grid-scale battery storage for companies building America's new power infrastructure and data centers. These customers need a domestic partner with a manufacturing know-how and scale and staying power to support them throughout the product's life.
接著談 Ford Energy。投資論點非常清楚。Ford 將解決一個對客戶很重要的問題,建立在 Ford 的優勢之上,並在短期內提供一條可信的路徑,以具吸引力的報酬率帶來可觀獲利。我們的起點是美國製造的電網級電池儲能,服務於正在建設美國新電力基礎設施與資料中心的企業。這些客戶需要一個具備製造專業與規模、並且有長期投入能力的本土合作夥伴,在產品全生命週期中提供支援。
We are progressing on two fronts: preparing our manufacturing capacity and securing customers. At our battery plant in Kentucky, we have met every single operating milestone so far. We have completed trial runs of electrode mixing, the first step in producing prismatic LFP battery cells, using the exact same process as our battery plant in Marshall, Michigan. We remain on track to bring 20 gigawatt hours of annual capacity online by the end of next year. Commercial progress is encouraging and demand remains very strong.
我們在兩個面向同步推進:準備製造產能與爭取客戶。在肯塔基州的電池工廠,我們迄今已達成每一項營運里程碑。我們已完成電極混漿的試產運轉,這是生產方形(prismatic)LFP 電芯的第一步,所採用的流程與我們在密西根州馬歇爾(Marshall)電池工廠完全相同。我們仍按計畫在明年底前讓每年 20 吉瓦時的產能上線。商業進展令人鼓舞,需求仍然非常強勁。
Executed contracts and late-stage negotiations together already currently account for more than 80% of Ford Energy's 2028 capacity. We are building a diverse customer base across solar, grid support and data centers, and we expect our 2028 capacity to be fully committed by Q1 of next year.
已簽訂合約與後期談判中的案源合計,目前已涵蓋 Ford Energy 2028 年產能的 80% 以上。我們正在太陽能、電網支援與資料中心等領域建立多元客戶基礎,並預期在明年第一季前,2028 年產能將全數被承諾(fully committed)。
Pricing signals remain consistent with our investment assumptions. Negotiation for '29 and '30 capacity are already advancing with customers engaged way ahead of our initial expectations. The DC block gives us a practical starting point to build a broader capability.
價格訊號仍與我們的投資假設一致。針對 2029 與 2030 年產能的談判已在推進,客戶參與的進度遠早於我們最初的預期。DC block 為我們提供一個務實的起點,以建立更廣泛的能力。
We expect attractive returns with short payback period, as I said. Sherry now is going to take you through our financial performance.
如我所說,我們預期將取得具吸引力的報酬率,且回收期短。接下來 Sherry 將帶各位回顧我們的財務表現。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jim, and hello, everyone. Our third quarter results reflect the deliberate actions we're taking to improve profitability and deliver consistent financial returns. Our increasingly fit industrial system, coupled with strong vehicle sales and auto adjacency performance enable adjusted EBIT growth of 3% despite 2% lower revenue as we sunset products like Escape and Corsair to transition the Louisville Assembly plant for the all-new Fathom. Sequentially, revenue at $49.5 billion and adjusted EBIT at $2.7 billion were both higher despite being impacted by a short-term supplier disruption late in the quarter. We also generated $4.7 billion in company adjusted free cash flow in Q3 and ended the quarter with $25.3 billion in cash and $46.4 billion in total liquidity, maintaining our commitment to a strong investment-grade rating and to returning capital to shareholders.
謝謝你,Jim,各位好。我們第三季的結果反映了我們為提升獲利能力並提供一致的財務回報而採取的審慎行動。我們日益精實且更具競爭力的工業系統,加上強勁的車輛銷售與汽車周邊業務表現,使調整後 EBIT 成長 3%,儘管營收下降 2%;這是因為我們逐步停產 Escape 與 Corsair 等產品,以便將路易斯維爾組裝廠轉型,用於全新 Fathom。就季比而言,營收 495 億美元與調整後 EBIT 27 億美元皆較前一季提高,儘管本季末受到短期供應商中斷影響。我們第三季也產生 47 億美元的公司調整後自由現金流,並以 253 億美元現金與 464 億美元總流動性結束本季,持續履行我們維持強健投資級評等以及向股東回饋資本的承諾。
Today, we announced a fourth quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share. This strong performance reflects the underlying quality of the sales accomplishments Jim mentioned as well as our progress toward a leaner, more-fit industrial system.
今天,我們宣布第四季每股 0.15 美元的例行股利。這項強勁表現反映了 Jim 所提到的銷售成果的基本品質,以及我們朝向更精實、更具競爭力的工業系統所取得的進展。
We continue to see mixed strength in trucks and three-row SUVs. Our higher-margin off-road passion products accounted for about one-fourth of our US sales in Q3, up almost 4 points from a year ago. And our customers have been resilient amid higher fuel prices, interest rates and inflation.
我們持續看到卡車與三排座 SUV 的強弱分化。我們高毛利的越野熱情產品在第三季約占美國銷量的四分之一,較一年前提高近 4 個百分點。在燃油價格、利率與通膨上升的環境下,我們的客戶仍展現韌性。
We also continue to deliver efficiencies across the business, including the use of AI in our business segments and throughout our operations. These actions, together with our industrial improvements have helped us absorb the vast majority of headwinds from the Middle East conflict and rising commodity costs. It is this discipline and operational rigor that is taking root across Ford. In fact, it is directly benefiting our next-generation product pipeline where we're making real progress in improving the cost base across our products. In addition, the traction in warranty and material cost improvement is strong again this year.
我們也持續在全公司推動效率提升,包括在各業務部門及整體營運中導入 AI。這些行動加上我們的工業改善,幫助我們吸收了中東衝突與大宗商品成本上升所帶來的絕大多數逆風。這種紀律與營運嚴謹性正在 Ford 全面扎根。事實上,它正直接惠及我們的下一代產品管線,我們在改善各產品成本基礎方面取得了實質進展。此外,今年保固與材料成本改善的動能依然強勁。
Both were lower in the quarter and year-to-date, keeping us firmly on plan towards reducing these costs by $1 billion this year, excluding Novelis and tariffs. And we are leveraging these reductions to fund our investments in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy.
兩者在本季與年初至今均有所下降,使我們穩健地按計畫推進:在不含 Novelis 與關稅的情況下,今年將這些成本降低 10 億美元。我們也正運用這些降本成果,為 Universal EV 平台與 Ford Energy 的投資提供資金。
At Novelis, operationally, the recovery is largely behind us. Financially, we have incurred about $1 billion in Novelis-related temporary costs year-to-date with some more to go in Q4, and we are still tracking to a net tailwind of about $1 billion in 2026. Now let's turn to our segment results. In Ford Blue, we delivered $27.1 billion of revenue and $1.4 billion in EBIT, down 3% and 10%, respectively. Our performance primarily reflects lower volume, driven by product discontinuations and the impact of the Middle East conflict within the region and higher commodity costs.
在 Novelis,就營運面而言,復原工作大致已在我們身後。在財務面,截至目前為止,我們已產生約 10 億美元與 Novelis 相關的暫時性成本,第四季仍會再增加一些;同時,我們仍維持在 2026 年帶來約 10 億美元淨順風的追蹤目標。現在讓我們來看各事業部門的業績。在 Ford Blue,我們實現營收 271 億美元、EBIT 14 億美元,分別下滑 3% 與 10%。我們的表現主要反映出銷量較低,原因包括產品停產,以及中東衝突對該區域的影響,並且大宗商品成本上升。
Our underlying business continues to benefit from favorable mix. We saw significant year-to-date demand in the US for Explorer with the higher-margin Tremor and Platinum series increasing sales by nearly 60%. F-Series performed well as we executed a disciplined go-to-market approach that yielded the highest share of revenue and lowest incentive spend in the third quarter. Lincoln also had an impressive quarter with both Nautilus and Aviator, experiencing double-digit sales growth in the US
我們的核心業務持續受惠於有利的產品組合。今年迄今,我們在美國看到 Explorer 的需求顯著,其中高毛利的 Tremor 與 Platinum 車系使銷量提升近 60%。F-Series 表現良好,我們執行紀律嚴明的上市策略,使第三季達成最高的營收市占與最低的促銷補貼支出。Lincoln 也繳出亮眼的一季,Nautilus 與 Aviator 在美國均出現雙位數銷售成長。
Our stock levels are healthy. We ended the quarter slightly below our target range of 55 to 65 retail days supply, and we increased gross stocks by about 6% versus Q2 2026. Our F-150 inventory improved quarter-over-quarter to 49 retail day supply, though, is still below our ideal range, which provides us with upside as we work to restock to target levels. Overall, we expect stocks to return within our targeted levels by year-end.
我們的庫存水位健康。本季結束時,我們略低於目標區間(零售端供應天數 55 至 65 天),且相較 2026 年第二季,我們的總庫存約增加 6%。我們的 F-150 庫存較上季改善至零售端供應 49 天,但仍低於理想區間;在我們補庫存回到目標水位的過程中,這也為我們提供上行空間。整體而言,我們預期到年底庫存將回到目標水位範圍內。
For Model e, we improved EBIT by 25% year-over-year in the quarter. We reported an EBIT loss of $1.1 billion on revenue of $1.2 billion. These results reflect our focus on capital efficiency and structural cost reductions as we realize the benefits from rightsizing our Gen 1 volumes, while we continue to invest in our UEV platform and Ford Energy. We are on track to improve Gen 1 EBIT by approximately 40% year-over-year in 2026 as we balance production and pricing with natural demand. In fact, in Q3, Mustang Mach-E had the lowest spend since 2023.
就 Model e 而言,本季 EBIT 年增改善 25%。我們在 12 億美元營收下,EBIT 虧損 11 億美元。這些結果反映我們聚焦資本效率與結構性成本降低;在我們透過調整 Gen 1 產量規模而開始實現效益的同時,仍持續投資於 UEV 平台與 Ford Energy。我們正按計畫在 2026 年將 Gen 1 的 EBIT 年增改善約 40%,並在生產與定價上與自然需求取得平衡。事實上,在第三季,Mustang Mach-E 的支出為 2023 年以來最低。
Importantly, we are still targeting breakeven by 2029. Ford Pro delivered another solid quarter with $17.8 billion of revenue, up 2% despite wholesale volumes being down 4%. Pro EBIT was $1.7 billion, down 16%, primarily due to higher commodities and temporary costs associated with the Oakville launch. Lower tariffs and favorable product mix driven by higher truck production as we recover from Novelis, partially offset these headwinds. 2027 model year signals are favorable as most commercial agreements are complete, with both fleet demand and pricing in line with our expectations.
重要的是,我們仍以 2029 年達到損益兩平為目標。Ford Pro 再度交出穩健的一季,營收 178 億美元,儘管批發量下滑 4%,營收仍成長 2%。Pro 的 EBIT 為 17 億美元,下滑 16%,主要因大宗商品成本上升,以及與 Oakville 上市相關的暫時性成本。隨著我們從 Novelis 事件中復原、卡車產量提高所帶動的較佳產品組合,加上關稅降低,部分抵銷了這些逆風。2027 年式的訊號正面,多數商用合約已完成,車隊需求與定價均符合我們的預期。
Ford Credit delivered a great quarter with EBT of $803 million, up $172 million. These results reflect favorable performance in our derivatives, healthy financing margins and a supportive used vehicle pricing environment. Our high-quality portfolio of offerings across Ford Credit remains resilient, and we maintain a consistent, disciplined approach to risk management. Jim talked earlier about the record quarter for software services and parts. I'd like to double-click on that.
Ford Credit 本季表現出色,稅前盈餘(EBT)為 8.03 億美元,增加 1.72 億美元。這些結果反映我們衍生性商品表現有利、融資利差健康,以及二手車價格環境的支撐。Ford Credit 旗下高品質的產品組合仍具韌性,我們也維持一致且嚴謹的風險管理作法。Jim 先前提到軟體服務與零件創下紀錄的一季。我想再深入說明一下。
These auto adjacent businesses were significant drivers of the quarter's strong performance, contributing approximately 10% of the quarter's revenue at strong margins. The largest contributors to software services revenue growth in the quarter and year-to-date were BlueCruise and connectivity and we continue to see momentum in Ford Pro Intelligence.
這些汽車周邊業務是本季強勁表現的重要推動力,以高毛利貢獻約占本季營收的 10%。本季以及今年迄今,軟體服務營收成長的最大貢獻來源為 BlueCruise 與連網服務;我們也持續看到 Ford Pro Intelligence 的動能。
Parts revenue growth this year has been driven by double-digit growth in our US wholesale channel and the expansion of our retail and wholesale businesses in Europe. We are also increasing dealer service retention with digital and uptime tools to drive organic parts growth. We are excited about the prospects these auto adjacencies offer for continued accretive growth. Now looking ahead to our full year 2026 outlook.
今年零件營收成長主要由美國批發通路的雙位數成長,以及我們在歐洲零售與批發業務的擴張所帶動。我們也透過數位化與稼動率(uptime)工具提升經銷商維修留存率,以推動零件的有機成長。我們對這些汽車周邊業務所帶來的持續增益式成長前景感到振奮。接著展望 2026 全年。
We are confident in our full year trajectory and our planned investment cadence and now expect full year adjusted EBIT between $10.5 billion to $11 billion. Adjusted free cash flow and capital expenditures are unchanged at $6 billion to $7 billion and $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, respectively. Our guidance does not include potential impacts of a significant escalation in the Middle East or a material downturn in the US economy, which if either or both occurred, could have a substantial impact on industry demand.
我們對全年走勢與既定投資節奏充滿信心,並預期全年調整後 EBIT 介於 105 億至 110 億美元。調整後自由現金流與資本支出維持不變,分別為 60 億至 70 億美元,以及 95 億至 105 億美元。我們的指引未納入中東局勢顯著升級或美國經濟出現重大下滑的潛在影響;若其中任一或兩者發生,可能對產業需求造成重大衝擊。
For our full year segment outlook, we expect Ford Blue EBIT of about $5.5 billion. Ford Pro EBIT of about $7 billion. Model e losses remain unchanged at about $4 billion. And Ford Credit EBT updated to about $2.8 billion.
就全年各事業部門展望而言,我們預期 Ford Blue 的 EBIT 約 55 億美元。Ford Pro 的 EBIT 約 70 億美元。Model e 的虧損維持不變,約 40 億美元。Ford Credit 的 EBT 更新為約 28 億美元。
Our guidance now assumes a US SAAR of 16.5 million units, commodity headwinds approaching $2.5 billion year-over-year, an increase of about $500 million as we continue to see increasing pressure from input costs.
我們目前的指引假設美國 SAAR 為 1,650 萬輛;大宗商品逆風接近年增 25 億美元,較先前增加約 5 億美元,因為我們持續看到投入成本壓力上升。
In addition, higher fuel prices are impacting our freight and energy costs. But notably, we are not seeing it impact customer demand for trucks and fleet vehicles at this point. We now expect full year US industry pricing to be about 100 basis points higher year-over-year, which is 0.5 point higher than our previous assumption.
此外,燃油價格上升正在影響我們的運輸與能源成本。但值得注意的是,目前我們尚未看到其對客戶對卡車與車隊車輛的需求造成影響。我們現在預期美國產業全年定價將年增約 100 個基點,較我們先前假設高出 0.5 個百分點。
And lastly, we continue to target $1 billion in material and warranty cost reductions, excluding Novelis and tariffs. In summary, our ability to increase profits in Q3 reflects the actions we have taken to optimize our product portfolio and create a business that is more efficient and agile in the face of increasing cost pressures, intensified global competition and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
最後,我們仍以材料與保固成本降低 10 億美元為目標(不含 Novelis 與關稅)。總結而言,我們在第三季提升獲利的能力,反映出我們為優化產品組合所採取的行動,並打造出在成本壓力上升、全球競爭加劇與宏觀經濟環境不確定之下,更有效率且更敏捷的業務體質。
I'll now turn it back over to Jim to provide some commentary on 2027.
接下來我把時間交還給 Jim,請他就 2027 年提供一些評論。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Sherry. At this point we're targeting profitability next year to be roughly in line with this year with an even stronger automotive business that enables us to invest in our future. Our outlook reflects three things: investing in future growth, substantial external cost pressures, and continued operating improvements. Next year will be a foundational year on our journey to 8%. When we will have refreshed 70% of our global portfolio of vehicles by volume, we are allocating majority of that investment to North America, where we will be expanding our truck and utility lineup.
謝謝你,Sherry。目前我們的目標是明年的獲利能力大致與今年相當,同時擁有更強健的汽車業務,使我們得以投資未來。我們的展望反映三件事:投資未來成長、顯著的外部成本壓力,以及持續的營運改善。明年將是我們邁向 8% 目標旅程中的奠基之年。屆時我們將以銷量計刷新全球車款組合的 70%;我們會把大部分投資配置在北美,並擴大我們的卡車與休旅車產品陣容。
Additionally, Ford Pro will be expanding their global lineup for Transit and Ranger with all new price points. Additionally, we are investing in our plants for our new F-150, which will require planned production downtime next year. We expect the added Super Duty capacity at Oakville to largely offset the impact of that downtime.
此外,Ford Pro 將以全新的價格帶擴展 Transit 與 Ranger 的全球產品陣容。此外,我們也在為全新 F-150 投資工廠,這將需要在明年安排計畫性的停產時間。我們預期 Oakville 新增的 Super Duty 產能將在很大程度上抵銷該停產時間的影響。
We will also continue to grow our investments in the Universal Electric Vehicle platform ahead of Fathom's launch and bring Ford Energy's 20 gigawatt hours of capacity online, both of which are key to the Model e turnaround by 2029.
我們也將在 Fathom 上市之前,持續擴大對通用電動車(Universal Electric Vehicle,UEV)平台的投資,並讓 Ford Energy 的 200 億度電(GWh)產能上線;這兩項都是在 2029 年前推動 Model e 扭轉局勢的關鍵。
In auto adjacencies, we expect continued growth in software services and parts to increase the contribution from reoccurring and countercyclical revenues. This accretive growth should help offset certain macro headwinds we expect at Ford Credit. We currently expect commodities, memory and logistics costs to represent a year-over-year headwind of about $2 billion at Ford. Our current plan is that the improved reliability and capability of our industrial system, together with revenue optimization and a company-wide efficiency on cost will allow us to offset the expected headwinds that I just walked through.
在汽車周邊業務方面,我們預期軟體服務與零件將持續成長,以提高經常性與逆景氣循環收入的貢獻。這種具增益性的成長應有助於抵銷我們在 Ford Credit 預期面臨的部分總體逆風。我們目前預期,大宗商品、記憶體與物流成本將對福特造成約 20 億美元的年對年逆風。我們目前的計畫是,透過工業系統可靠性與能力的提升,加上營收最佳化以及全公司範圍的成本效率提升,來抵銷我剛才提到的預期逆風。
We intend to finish this year strong, execute in '27 with great profitability investments and with discipline to build towards that target of 8% adjusted EBIT by '29.
我們打算在今年強勢收尾,並在 2027 年以高度獲利性的投資與紀律執行,朝著 2029 年達成 8% 調整後 EBIT 的目標邁進。
We'd like to take your questions now.
我們現在想開始回答各位的提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Rajat Gupta, JPMorgan.
Rajat Gupta,摩根大通。
Rajat Gupta - Analyst
Rajat Gupta - Analyst
Great. And appreciate all the color on 2027. I'm assuming the commodities, logistics, the memory headwinds stay where they are right now at the $2 billion guide. Just curious how much of the 2027 offset stack that you've pointed to is within your control today? How much is -- how much of that you still need to work on just because a lot of the inflation has happened in the last three, four months.
很好。也感謝你們對 2027 年提供的所有細節。我假設大宗商品、物流、記憶體的逆風仍維持在目前指引的 20 億美元水準。我只是好奇,你們所指出的 2027 年抵銷項目組合中,有多少是你們今天就能掌控的?其中有多少——有多少部分仍需要再努力,因為過去三、四個月通膨發生了很多變化。
Just curious to get your thoughts on that and like how comfortable you are with that '27 guide? And what more needs to be done to get there? And I have a quick follow-up.
想請教你們對此的看法,以及你們對這個 2027 年指引的信心程度如何?還需要做哪些事情才能達成?我還有一個簡短的追問。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yes, sure. Thank you so much for your question. I would say that the areas that we see more in our control would be the areas of revenue optimization, continued software and parts growth and also continued savings as well. And I can give you a little bit more color on that, too, if that would be helpful.
好的,當然。非常感謝你的提問。我會說,我們認為較在我們掌控之內的領域,包括營收最佳化、軟體與零件的持續成長,以及持續的節省成本。如果有幫助的話,我也可以再補充一些細節。
I mean on the market equation side, as you know, mix optimization is something where we have made huge progress this year, and we expect that progress to continue into next year. We have transformed our sales and operating plan and are now leveraging AI tools that are enabling us to match demand sensing to capacity planning, and that's leading to more production stability, which leads to real savings. We also have better inventory and pricing models for both vehicles and parts, and that's leading to faster turn rates and leaner stocks and just an overall disciplined approach and management of our market equation. So that is going to be an area that's in our control. We're continuing to get better through tech modernization.
就市場方程式(market equation)而言,如你所知,產品組合最佳化是我們今年取得巨大進展的項目,我們預期這項進展會延續到明年。我們已經改造了銷售與營運計畫,並正在運用 AI 工具,讓需求感知與產能規劃相匹配,進而帶來更穩定的生產,而這會帶來實質的節省。我們也針對車輛與零件建立了更好的庫存與定價模型,這帶來更快的周轉率、更精實的庫存,以及對市場方程式更整體、更有紀律的做法與管理。因此,這將是我們可掌控的領域。我們也會透過技術現代化持續變得更好。
On the structural cost side, we're already working plans. We've been at this for 6 months already going into 2027. And in fact, we're already looking ahead in populating profit improvement actions for both '28 and '29 as well. And then as I said, we're going to continue to see, we believe, increased revenues in both the software and the parts growth area. And as I just mentioned in my comments here a moment ago, we've now seen those combined, representing 10% of our revenues at accretive gross margins.
在結構性成本方面,我們已經在推動相關計畫。我們已經做了 6 個月,並一路規劃到 2027 年。事實上,我們也已經開始提前為 2028 與 2029 年安排獲利改善行動。另外,如我所說,我們相信軟體與零件成長這兩個領域的營收也會持續增加。而且正如我剛才提到的,我們現在看到兩者合計已占我們營收的 10%,且具增益性的毛利率。
So this is an area that is in our control, areas that we're focused on, and we're seeing the benefits of that to stabilize our returns in the face of things like commodities in an uncertain macro environment.
因此,這些是我們可掌控、也是我們聚焦的領域;我們也看到其效益,能在像大宗商品這類因素、以及不確定的總體環境下,穩定我們的報酬。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would only add that our day supply on F-150 and Super Duty, is a major accomplishment compared to our competitors. It's real -- we're going into '27, as Sherry said in her speech, in a really good situation in our truck business.
我只想補充一點:我們 F-150 與 Super Duty 的庫存天數(day supply),相較競爭對手是一項重大成就。這確實——正如 Sherry 在她的發言中所說,我們在卡車業務上進入 2027 年時處於非常有利的狀態。
Rajat Gupta - Analyst
Rajat Gupta - Analyst
Understood. That's very helpful color. And then just on UEV with the deliveries expected next year, just curious what remains to be derisked between now and launch when it comes to supplier readiness, software validation, just battery costs. How much of the path to the modeling breakeven depends on UEV hitting its volume and cost targets on schedule?
了解。這些補充非常有幫助。另外關於 UEV,預計明年開始交付,我想了解在現在到上市之間,供應商就緒度、軟體驗證、以及電池成本等方面,還有哪些風險需要去除?在達到模型損益兩平的路徑上,有多少取決於 UEV 能否按計畫達成其產量與成本目標?
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
This is Kumar. Let me give you some color on the status of the launch. It's progressing very well. 90% of the validation testing has been completed. We've built our first production line vehicles on -- at Louisville Assembly plant.
我是 Kumar。我來補充一些上市進度的情況。目前進展非常順利。90% 的驗證測試已經完成。我們已在路易維爾組裝廠(Louisville Assembly Plant)打造出第一批量產線車輛。
So we're starting to prove out our production processes.
因此,我們正開始驗證我們的生產流程。
One of the key new technologies for Fathom is unicastings. We've already produced 5,000 of them. So we're proving out our capability to run at rate, and that's gone really well.
Fathom 的一項關鍵新技術是一體式鑄件(unicastings)。我們已經生產了 5,000 件。因此我們正在驗證以既定節拍(run at rate)運行的能力,而目前進展非常好。
And to be specific about your question on what risk remains to be mitigated, it's primarily in the supply base. We need to make sure that the supply base can run at rate with high-quality parts. And that's very normal at this stage of the launch, and that's what we're going to be working on for the next few months.
至於你問到還有哪些風險需要被具體降低,主要是在供應鏈基礎(supply base)。我們需要確保供應體系能以既定節拍運行並提供高品質零件。在上市的這個階段這非常正常,而這也是我們接下來幾個月要持續推進的工作。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The other element of the Fathom launch is critical is the revenue picture, which actually seems to be strengthening. Andrew, do you want to highlight the change in the US EV market and how that relates to the profitability modeling?
Fathom 上市的另一個關鍵要素是營收面貌,而這看起來其實正在轉強。Andrew,你要不要說明一下美國電動車市場的變化,以及這與獲利模型之間的關聯?
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Yeah, I mean, the market, as we've learned over the last couple of years is definitely in the US specifically is not acting as a monolith, especially when it comes to the affordable EVs. We've actually seen EV prices go up about 10%, which has priced a lot of new vehicles out of the affordable market. So the customer is very limited with their new vehicle options.
是的,我的意思是,過去幾年我們學到的是,市場——尤其是在美國——在運作上絕對不是鐵板一塊,特別是在平價電動車方面。我們其實看到電動車價格上漲了約 10%,這使得許多新車被排除在平價市場之外。因此,消費者在新車選擇上非常有限。
In fact, a lot of them are looking to the used market.
事實上,很多人轉而看向二手市場。
So we're now looking at the EV market as new and used. We're about -- over half now of the vehicles sold under $40,000 are used vehicles. That's really important because as you said, Jim, the Fathom starting MSRP is at $28,350. That's going to be right in the heart of the market. And it's not just the EV market.
因此,我們現在把電動車市場視為新車與二手車兩個部分。目前在 40,000 美元以下售出的車輛中,超過一半是二手車。這非常重要,因為如你所說,Jim,Fathom 的起始建議售價(MSRP)為 28,350 美元。這將正好落在市場核心區間。而且不只是電動車市場。
It's actually opening us up to a massive total addressable market.
這其實讓我們得以切入一個龐大的總可服務市場(TAM)。
If you know that nearly 50% of the US new vehicle industry transacts under $40,000. So not only do we expect Fathom for the reasons you mentioned earlier to attract new and used EV buyers but also ICE hybrid customers, especially because we're going to have much lower operating costs than even a mainstream hybrid vehicle. So the customer response on what we've shared so far has been really strong. We're preparing for the launch, and we'll be launching our preorder program in the first quarter, and we'll have more to share with everyone at that time as we get close-
如果你知道美國新車產業中,接近 50% 的交易價格是在 40,000 美元以下。因此,基於你先前提到的原因,我們不僅預期 Fathom 會吸引新車與二手電動車買家,也會吸引燃油車(ICE)與油電混合車客群,特別是因為我們的使用成本將遠低於主流混合動力車。所以,就目前我們分享的內容而言,客戶反應非常強烈。我們正在為上市做準備,並將在第一季推出預購計畫;隨著我們接近——屆時也會與大家分享更多資訊。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we're feeling pretty good about the industrial preparation and the revenue picture. It's impressive to me to see that the used -- the EV market is above 8% of US industry now. And that's including all the issues Andrew just highlighted and the lack of affordability options. So I think we're -- it's a lot of work to still be done.
因此,我們對工業端的準備情況以及營收態勢感到相當樂觀。令我印象深刻的是,二手——電動車(EV)市場如今已占美國整體產業的 8% 以上。而這還是在包含 Andrew 剛剛提到的所有問題,以及缺乏可負擔選項的情況下。所以我認為——仍然還有很多工作要做。
We have a year to go. But I think we're positioned really well, which will be one of the 2 big drivers turning around Model e -- the vehicle side of Model e.
我們還有一年時間。但我認為我們的布局非常到位,這將成為扭轉 Model e——也就是 Model e 車輛端——的兩大驅動因素之一。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.
Emmanuel Rosner,Wolfe Research。
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Analyst
Great. Maybe just following up here on Model e. So I know for 2027 overall for the company's stable results versus 2026, are you still looking to improve Model e within that EBIT? And maybe what are the moving pieces within that? Are you planning similar or higher investments into this UEV and BESS?
很好。我想就 Model e 再追問一下。我知道公司在 2027 年整體相較 2026 年的業績預期是維持穩定,你們是否仍希望在該 EBIT 之內改善 Model e?以及其中有哪些變動因素?你們是否計畫對 UEV 和 BESS 進行類似或更高的投資?
And then what are the drivers of improvement on the car side of the business?
另外,汽車業務端改善的驅動因素是什麼?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Great. Emmanuel, thank you so much for your question. So you just heard about the Model e operational steps that we're taking and the milestones there. From a financial perspective, as I said in my comments, we're working towards our target for Model e to reach breakeven by 2029. The progress isn't going to be linear, and we're now expecting higher expenses in 2027 as the plants coming into focus.
很好。Emmanuel,非常感謝你的提問。你剛剛已聽到我們正在採取的 Model e 營運步驟以及相關里程碑。從財務角度來看,正如我在發言中提到的,我們正朝著 Model e 在 2029 年達到損益兩平的目標努力。進展不會是線性的,而我們目前預期 2027 年費用會更高,因為各工廠的規劃逐步明朗。
So let me give you a little bit of what we're seeing. We think that the next step-function change in profitability is going to happen in the first half of 2028 as UEV and Ford Energy both ramp with revenue on both.
我來稍微說明一下我們看到的情況。我們認為下一個獲利能力的「階躍式」改善,將在 2028 年上半年出現,屆時 UEV 與 Ford Energy 都會隨著營收同步放量。
So if you break that down a bit, you're going to see Fathom launching towards the end of the year with the first derivative of the platform. Then you're going to have that full year of production in 2028. Then we're going to be escalating the Ford Energy business with investment, full year production also by 2028. And then new is the launch of the European partnership products by 2028. So there will be investment in that in 2027, and the full year of production on those will be by 2029.
如果再拆解一下,你會看到 Fathom 將在年底左右推出其平台的第一個衍生版本。接著在 2028 年會有完整一年的量產。然後我們也會透過投資來加速 Ford Energy 業務,並在 2028 年同樣達到完整年度的量產。另外新增的是,歐洲合作夥伴產品也將在 2028 年推出。因此 2027 年會對此進行投資,而這些產品要到 2029 年才會有完整年度的量產。
So you're going to have those investments that are happening through '27 with the unlock really starting to unleash as you get into 2028 and '29.
所以你會看到這些投資會一路持續到 2027 年,而真正的釋放效益會在進入 2028 年與 2029 年時開始顯現。
Operator
Operator
Tom Narayan, RBC.
Tom Narayan,RBC。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
My question has to do with Ford Blue in Europe. China has about 60 million vehicles of auto production capacity. It's consuming about 20 million a year and exporting 10 million. A decent portion going to Europe, and then this has been worsened by weakening domestic sales in China. I know you have a JV with Geely in Valencia, the partnerships with Renault and BW, are these enough to rightsize your capacity in Europe?
我的問題與 Ford Blue 在歐洲有關。中國約有 6,000 萬輛的汽車產能。每年消化約 2,000 萬輛,並出口 1,000 萬輛。其中相當一部分流向歐洲,而中國國內銷售走弱又讓情況更嚴峻。我知道你們在瓦倫西亞與吉利有一家合資企業,並且與雷諾和 BW 有合作夥伴關係,這些是否足以讓你們在歐洲把產能調整到合適規模?
Or do you need further actions from the EU to halt Chinese exports?
或者你們是否需要歐盟採取進一步行動來遏止中國出口?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for your question. Europe is quite different than what's happening in Southeast Asia and LATAM for the China competition. So I appreciate your question specific to Europe.
謝謝你的提問。就中國競爭而言,歐洲的情況與東南亞及拉丁美洲(LATAM)正在發生的情況相當不同。所以我很感謝你針對歐洲提出的具體問題。
And the situation in Europe is very different because the EU has such a strong EV mandate, and as you said, there's a lot of overcapacity in Europe, not just to export it from China. We do feel like we know we have the right plan to right the ship in terms of our passenger car profitability with Renault and Geely, as you mentioned. Those are very low capital investments with really great cost levels, especially for the EV portion of our lineup that will allow us to replace unprofitable EVs with very -- with much better profit outlooks on EV.
歐洲的情勢非常不同,因為歐盟有非常強的電動車(EV)強制要求;而且如你所說,歐洲存在大量產能過剩,不僅僅是從中國出口進來的問題。我們確實認為,透過你提到的雷諾與吉利合作,我們有正確的計畫來扭轉乘用車獲利能力。這些都是資本投入非常低、成本水準非常好的合作,特別是針對我們產品線中的 EV 部分,能讓我們以獲利前景更佳的 EV 取代目前不賺錢的 EV。
The commercial side is also under pressure in Europe, and we have a pretty exciting lineup, especially around the EV requirements for the commercial business, the Pro business. There's a lot of negative profit pressure, but we have a really good solution coming next year that we're really excited about. I think the combination of both will make sense.
在歐洲,商用車端也承受壓力;不過我們有一個相當令人振奮的產品陣容,尤其是圍繞商用業務(Pro 業務)的 EV 要求。目前獲利面臨很大的負向壓力,但我們在明年會推出一個我們非常期待、也很有信心的解決方案。我認為兩者結合起來會是合理的。
As far as the capacity utilization that you mentioned, your specific question at this point, I don't want to get into the details other than working through the opportunity in Valencia, in Romania and Turkey. So thank you. We are completely committed to building a profitable European business with these actions. We've been on it for several years, and we have a really aggressive plan.
至於你提到的產能利用率——就你此刻的具體問題而言,我不想深入細節;我們正在推進瓦倫西亞、羅馬尼亞以及土耳其的相關機會。所以謝謝你。我們完全致力於透過這些行動打造一個在歐洲可獲利的業務。我們已經投入好幾年,並且有一個非常積極的計畫。
Operator
Operator
Joseph Spak, UBS.
Joseph Spak,UBS。
Joseph Spak - Equity Analyst
Joseph Spak - Equity Analyst
Good afternoon, everyone. I guess I just want to start with some of your comments around the F-150 and not to sort of get -- just sort of really buckle down on this. I think you mentioned that F-150 stock, you expect to recover to target levels by the end of the year. And I want to be clear on this because you've talked about stock in terms of days historically, and I think even in your prepared remarks, but seasonally, we always see end of year December is much lower than September. So when you say recover -- just a thought, to correct levels, are you talking back at base level because that will mean a pretty significant increase in absolute inventory?
各位下午好。我想先從你們對 F-150 的一些評論談起,我不是要——只是想把這點釐清。我記得你提到 F-150 的庫存,你們預期在年底前回到目標水準。我想確認清楚,因為你們過去談庫存通常用「天數」來表達,我想即便在你們的事先準備講稿中也是如此;但從季節性來看,年底 12 月通常會比 9 月低很多。所以當你說回到——也就是回到正確水準時,你指的是回到基準水準嗎?因為那將意味著絕對庫存量會顯著增加。
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Thanks, Joe. It's Andrew. No. I think when we talk specifically to our F-150 stock, we're running at 49 days coming out of September. That is below our range.
謝謝,Joe。我是 Andrew。不是的。我認為當我們特別談到 F-150 的庫存時,我們在 9 月底時的水準是 49 天。這低於我們的區間。
As we look at towards the year-end, we will be running probably on the low end of that. We'll continue to run on the low end of that. And as Jim mentioned, below our competitive set.
展望年底,我們大概會落在該區間的低端。我們會持續維持在該區間的低端。而且如 Jim 所提到的,也會低於我們的競爭對手組合。
We've seen really high days to turn on our units that we have in stock. In fact, we just came out of the third quarter where we had the fastest turn rates of the year, and they were faster than any of our competitors in the segment. And that's really helping us manage our overall market equation, as we mentioned, but we do not expect to see our stocks building to a much higher level at the end of this year.
我們看到目前庫存車輛的周轉天數表現非常好。事實上,我們剛結束第三季,當季的周轉速度是今年最快,而且比同級距的任何競爭對手都更快。這確實有助於我們管理整體市場方程式(如我們所提到的),但我們不預期今年年底庫存會增加到更高水準。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Just want to reinforce and be specific to your question. You said dig in, I think that's great. For me, over the last many years, a normal stocking level for F-150 could have been 80 to 100 days supply in the past. I just want to reinforce what Sherry said, our target is that 50, low 60-day supply. And I think by the end of this year, we're going to be in that range.
我想再強調一次,並針對你的問題更具體地說明。你說要深入探討,我覺得很好。以我過去多年的經驗,F-150 過去的正常備貨水準可能是 80 到 100 天的供應量。我想再次呼應 Sherry 說的,我們的目標是 50 天到 60 天出頭的供應量。我認為到今年年底,我們會落在那個區間。
That is substantially lower than Ford's operated. And it's really allowed us to build that disciplined full-size truck business, while we watch our competitors play a very different game.
那比福特的營運水準低得多。而這也確實讓我們得以建立一個自律的全尺寸皮卡業務,同時看著競爭對手在玩一個非常不同的遊戲。
And our dealers are very anxious for more stock. Our mix is good and our turn rates is really what we're focused on now, as Andrew said. So I would say, to answer your question simply, that 55- to 60-day range that Sherry talked about is historically much lower than we normally run our truck business.
而我們的經銷商非常急切希望有更多庫存。我們的產品組合不錯,而正如 Andrew 所說,我們現在真正關注的是周轉率。所以我會說,簡單回答你的問題,Sherry 提到的 55 到 60 天區間,從歷史上看,遠低於我們通常經營卡車業務時的水準。
Operator
Operator
James Picariello, BNP Paribas.
James Picariello,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
James Picariello - Analyst
James Picariello - Analyst
Hi, everybody.
嗨,各位好。
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Yeah, just to follow on to Joe's question on the F-Series recovery and inventory, is the 150,000 units recovery targets still cleanly intact? Or is that number lower and there's something else to favorably offset and keep that net $1 billion in the guide intact? Is it better price mix? Or is that volume target still...
是的,接續 Joe 關於 F-Series 復甦與庫存的問題,15 萬輛的復甦目標是否仍然完全不變?還是那個數字變低了,並且有其他因素能夠有利地抵消、讓指引中的淨 10 億美元仍維持不變?是更好的價格/組合嗎?還是那個銷量目標仍然……
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
So here's how I answer that. On the Novelis recovery, it has been going as planned operationally. And we're now running at rate and most -- the vast majority of the materials have been validated, and we're going to continue to run at rate in Q4 as our plan.
我會這樣回答。就 Novelis 的復甦而言,營運面一直按計畫推進。我們現在已經以既定產能節奏運行,而且大多數——絕大多數材料都已完成驗證;我們將依照計畫在第四季持續以既定產能節奏運行。
When you get to the financial side of it, we have seen costs coming in a little bit lower and the volumes have been proportionately a little bit lower, too. And so that's going to enable us to continue to keep with the guide that we said at the outset of the year, which is $1 billion of a net tailwind by the end of 2026 as it relates to this set of products.
談到財務面,我們看到成本略低一些,而相對地,量也略低一些。因此,這將使我們能夠持續維持我們在年初所給出的指引:就這一系列產品而言,到 2026 年底將帶來淨 10 億美元的順風。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.
Andrew Percoco,摩根士丹利。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
So I guess to start off, a two-part question here. First, I want to ask a follow-up on energy storage. I think you guys provided a great update in your prepared remarks. It sounds like you're 80% contracted for 2028. So I guess that would imply about 16 gigawatt hours kind of in the backlog.
我想先從一個兩段式問題開始。第一,我想追問一下儲能業務。我認為你們在事先準備的發言中提供了很好的更新。聽起來你們在 2028 年已經有 80% 簽約。所以我猜這意味著大約有 16 吉瓦時左右在手訂單。
But I think you also said that, that included contracted backlog as well as late-stage negotiations. So I guess, did I get that right? And is there any other information or color you can kind of provide in terms of what needs to happen to maybe get that full 16 gigawatt hours fully contracted versus late stage? Just kind of curious what the final steps are there?
但我想你們也提到,那包含了已簽約的在手訂單以及後期階段的談判。所以我理解得對嗎?另外,你們是否能提供更多資訊或說明:要讓這 16 吉瓦時全部變成「完全簽約」而不是仍處於後期階段,還需要發生什麼?我只是好奇最後的步驟是什麼?
And then my second question, coming back to what Tom asked about in terms of China. Obviously, exports are continuing to increase pretty substantially out of the region. The domestic market feels fairly saturated. Can you just talk to how you expect that to impact your business at a higher level, not just in Europe, but just globally and what you think needs to be done to make sure that that's not going to create a bigger disruption for you guys going forward? Thank you.
然後第二個問題,回到 Tom 問到的中國相關議題。顯然,該地區的出口仍在相當大幅度地增加。國內市場感覺相當飽和。你們能否從更高層次談談你們預期這會如何影響你們的業務——不只是歐洲,而是全球層面——以及你們認為需要做些什麼,才能確保這不會在未來對你們造成更大的擾動?謝謝。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dave, why don't you handle Ford Energy?
Dave,你來回答 Ford Energy 的部分好嗎?
Dave Carroll - President of Ford Energy
Dave Carroll - President of Ford Energy
Yes. So Andrew, this is David Carroll. First, just to cover your first question. We're actually not talking about backlog today. We were going to start disclosing that next year.
好的。Andrew,我是 David Carroll。先回應你的第一個問題。我們今天其實不談在手訂單(backlog)。我們打算從明年開始揭露那項資訊。
And what we -- what Jim had indicated in his remarks is that we are actually ahead of expectations where we are with our customers. And we see that primarily Ford Energy is very excited about the quality of the product that we have in the market. We believe it's one of the highest quality products out there in the market that you can buy. And we're seeing that from our customers. And we believe that's what's bringing the customers to us as we're moving forward.
而 Jim 在他的發言中指出的是,我們與客戶的進展其實超出預期。我們看到主要原因是 Ford Energy 對我們在市場上的產品品質非常興奮。我們相信這是市場上你能買到的最高品質產品之一。我們也從客戶那裡看到了這一點。我們相信,隨著我們持續推進,這正是吸引客戶選擇我們的原因。
In fact, last week, we had one of our customers out of our Marshall manufacturing facility where they toured where we're producing LFP prismatic cells right now, and they toured that factory and came out saying, it's top tier of all the factories they've seen globally. So we're very excited that we have the highest quality product in the market, and we believe that's what's driving the customers to us.
事實上,上週我們有一位客戶來到我們的 Marshall 製造基地參觀;他們參觀了我們目前正在生產 LFP 方形(prismatic)電芯的產線,走訪工廠後表示,這是他們在全球看過的所有工廠中屬於頂尖等級。因此,我們對於我們擁有市場上最高品質的產品感到非常振奮,也相信這正是驅動客戶選擇我們的原因。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. And I think for backlog, that would be something we'll probably get more transparency on next year, right?
是的。我想關於在手訂單,這可能是我們明年會有更高透明度的部分,對吧?
Dave Carroll - President of Ford Energy
Dave Carroll - President of Ford Energy
Yes, that's correct.
是的,沒錯。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. So thanks for your question. And we have a lot to do with Fort Energy, but really promising start, and we're going to open the aperture for all the investors more and more as time goes on.
好的,謝謝你的提問。我們在 Ford Energy 還有很多工作要做,但起步非常有希望;而且隨著時間推進,我們會逐步為所有投資人提供越來越多的資訊與視角。
As far as China is concerned, thank you for your question. Frankly, we've held up really well internationally as the Chinese gain more and more share in open and closed markets. Where we see the competition of the most intense is LATAM and Southeast Asia, where we have a large Ranger business. And in both cases, Ranger is still doing very well because it competes at a much higher price point. And as I said, we're going to be going into their price point next year with this new affordable truck.
至於中國,謝謝你的問題。坦白說,隨著中國品牌在開放與封閉市場中取得越來越多市占,我們在國際市場的表現仍然相當穩健。我們看到競爭最激烈的地方是在拉丁美洲與東南亞,因為我們在那裡有很大的 Ranger 業務。而在這兩個市場,Ranger 仍然表現很好,因為它在更高的價格帶競爭。而且如我所說,明年我們會以這款新的平價卡車進入他們的價格帶。
So we'll see how that plays out, but we're confident.
所以我們會看看結果如何,但我們有信心。
In addition, I think Ford is the number 1 traditional OEM exporting from China. It's been our strategy for several years now. The Territory is our second most profitable vehicle globally, and it is really successful for us. And I think the exports are up, I don't know, like 60%. It's a really big improvement.
另外,我認為福特是從中國出口的傳統 OEM 中排名第一。這一直是我們過去幾年的策略。Territory 是我們在全球第二高獲利的車款,對我們而言非常成功。而且我想出口成長了,我不知道,大概像 60% 吧。這是非常大的改善。
And we expect to continue to take advantage of that for the open markets, especially.
而我們預期會持續善用這一點,特別是在開放市場。
I kind of tried to give a view on Europe, so I won't be repetitive, but that's where we -- for Ford, that's where we see the real pressure on our business with the Chinese. It's really in Europe. It's not just the Chinese, it's the EV mandates by the EU, which we expect them to address over time as well as the U.K. and all the overcapacity in Europe that's been there for many, many years.
我之前已經試著就歐洲提供一些看法,所以我就不重複了;但對福特而言,我們看到中國對我們業務造成真正壓力的地方就在歐洲。確實是在歐洲。不只是中國品牌,還有歐盟的電動車強制規範(EV mandates),我們也預期他們會隨時間推進加以調整;另外還有英國,以及歐洲多年來一直存在的產能過剩問題。
As far as the rest of the world, I think we're well positioned not only now, but with our new lineup. And our global partnerships will give us a lot of opportunity. We have learned so much exporting from China. It's been really a very successful exercise for Ford with very low capital. And we've learned a lot about China cost as well as China cost in places where it needs to be localized, like Thailand, in Europe over time.
至於世界其他地區,我認為我們不僅目前定位良好,隨著我們的新產品陣容推出也會更具優勢。而我們的全球合作夥伴關係將帶來很多機會。我們從中國出口的過程中學到了很多。對福特而言,這是一個非常成功、資本投入非常低的做法。我們也學到了很多關於中國成本(China cost),以及在需要在地化的地方(例如泰國、以及未來的歐洲)如何實現中國成本水準。
So I think we're well positioned. The issue for us in the short term is really Europe.
所以我認為我們的布局相當到位。就短期而言,我們真正面臨的問題其實是在歐洲。
Operator
Operator
Jairam Nathan, Daiwa.
Jairam Nathan,Daiwa。
Jairam Nathan - Analyst
Jairam Nathan - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question here. So I just wanted to understand the ability to upsell on the Fathom and the starting point of below $30,000 is pretty good, but I just wanted to understand how would you -- what ways you can upsell that?
嗨,謝謝讓我在這裡提問。我想了解一下在 Fathom 上做加價升級(upsell)的能力;起售價低於 30,000 美元確實很不錯,但我想更清楚你們會用哪些方式來做加價升級?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Do you mean -- just so we understand the question, you mean how do we get to a point where it's profitable at that price point? Is that what you mean by the offset?
你的意思是——為了確保我們理解你的問題,你是指我們如何在那個價位點做到有利可圖嗎?你說的「抵消」是這個意思嗎?
Jairam Nathan - Analyst
Jairam Nathan - Analyst
No. No. Not offset, upsell, upsell the vehicle kind of by offering like getting a better mix on the vehicle beyond that $30,000 -- under $30,000.
不是。不是抵消,是加價升級(upsell),也就是透過提供例如更好的車型配置組合,讓這台車在 30,000 美元以下的基礎上往上加價升級。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I see. I see. Okay. Thank you. Yes great question. I think we're already pretty deep in in a lot of intelligence, a lot of customers have shown interest in the vehicles. So we're learning a lot. There's a lot to that strategy at Ford to offer customers a lot of options beyond the $28,000. Andrew, I'll let you highlight the 3 or 4 key points.
我明白。我明白。好的,謝謝。是的,這個問題問得很好。我認為我們已經在很多情報上做得很深入,很多客戶都對這些車款表達了興趣。所以我們正在學到很多。在福特,這項策略有很多面向,目標是讓客戶在 28,000 美元以上有很多選配可選。Andrew,我讓你來重點說明 3 到 4 個關鍵點。
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Yeah, I think what one -- and we'll get more into this when we do a full review of the product. You'll learn a lot more about our positioning strategy. But the starting price of the $28,350 is just that. We'll have a range that goes to the high $30,000 range.
是的,我想其中一點——我們在做完整的產品回顧時會更深入談。你會更了解我們的定位策略。但 28,350 美元的起售價就是起點而已。我們會有一個價格帶,最高會到 30,000 多美元、接近 40,000 美元的區間。
And we'll have a couple of different offerings within that. So I would say we will give you a lot more detail around this, the offerings themselves as we get closer. It's probably too soon to share more at this point.
而且在這個區間內我們會有幾種不同的產品方案。所以我會說,隨著時間更接近,我們會就這些方案本身提供更多細節。現階段可能還太早,暫時不便分享更多。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The big breakthrough conceptually for us about customers buying nicer Fathoms are really on the digital side. We put in an advanced electrical architecture, a 48-volt system, so we can offer at an incredibly low cost, very advanced ADAS as well as digital camera, dashboard. I won't go into all the details that Andrew said, but the digital suite, including the embedded Apple Maps, is really a game changer for any EV, let alone at this price. I think for me, personally, that is going to be the most exciting upsell opportunity. It's really the long-term subscription and digital experience for the customer.
對我們而言,在概念上最大的突破,是客戶願意購買更高階 Fathom 的關鍵其實在數位端。我們導入了先進的電氣架構與 48 伏系統,因此能以極低成本提供非常先進的 ADAS,以及數位攝影機、儀表板。我不會把 Andrew 提到的細節全部展開,但這套數位套件(包含內建 Apple 地圖)對任何電動車而言都是改變遊戲規則的功能,更不用說是在這個價位。就我個人而言,這會是最令人興奮的加價升級機會。真正的重點在於長期訂閱與客戶的數位體驗。
Operator
Operator
Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.
Mark Delaney,高盛。
Mark Delaney - Equity Analyst
Mark Delaney - Equity Analyst
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my question. I was hoping you could give a bit more color on what Ford is seeing for pricing. The company took up its view of US industry pricing by a little bit for 2026. Maybe you can share a bit more on what's driving that? And then also on this topic more broadly, any early views on pricing for 2027, including what you're seeing in Pro with the annual negotiations, which I think are now well underway.
是的,下午好。非常感謝讓我提問。我希望你們能多補充一些福特目前看到的定價情況。公司把對 2026 年美國產業定價的看法小幅上調。能否分享一下是什麼在驅動這個調整?另外更廣泛地談這個主題,你們對 2027 年的定價是否已有初步看法?包括你們在 Pro(商用事業)那邊看到的年度談判進展,我想現在應該已經在積極進行中。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's a big question. Thank you for asking. So Andrew and Alicia, I think she can-
這是一個很大的問題。謝謝你的提問。所以 Andrew 和 Alicia,我想她可以——
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Andrew Frick - President of Ford Blue and Ford Model E
Yeah, maybe I'll start with the retail side. Thanks, Mark. Yes, we're seeing a very strong pricing environment right now. We expect pricing to be up about a percentage point this year.
是的,也許我先從零售端開始。謝謝你,Mark。是的,我們目前看到的定價環境非常強勁。我們預期今年定價大約會上升 1 個百分點左右。
And as we look into next year, we think there's a lot of different levers that we'll be able to work with our product mix and net pricing, both the top line but also our variable marketing as well, just very similar to how we approach this year.
而展望明年,我們認為有很多不同的槓桿可以運用,包含產品組合與淨定價(不僅是營收端,還包括我們的變動行銷費用),整體做法與今年非常類似。
The industry remains really strong. We're seeing the segmentation remain strong, very really big resilience with customer base, especially in trucks and utilities, which is really playing to our advantage, and we expect that to continue into next year. And Alicia, do you want to comment on what you're seeing in the early part of commercial side?
整體產業仍然非常強勁。我們看到各細分市場依舊強勢,客戶基礎展現出很強的韌性,尤其是在皮卡與 SUV/多功能車領域,這對我們非常有利,我們預期這種態勢會延續到明年。Alicia,你要不要談談你在商用端前期看到的情況?
Alicia Boler Davis - President of Ford Pro
Alicia Boler Davis - President of Ford Pro
Yeah, I can just start on pricing per fleet. We're also seeing strong pricing year-over-year over 1%. But as Sherry mentioned, our fleet demand orders for '27 model year are on target. We're excited about Oakville and that capacity because that's going to allow us to really grow our truck rental sales, we can return to our pre-pandemic levels where the economics are really favorable for us.
好的,我先從車隊(fleet)定價談起。我們也看到年增超過 1% 的強勁定價。不過如 Sherry 提到的,我們 2027 年式('27 model year)的車隊需求訂單符合目標。我們對 Oakville 以及那裡的產能感到很興奮,因為這將讓我們能真正擴大卡車租賃銷售,並回到疫情前的水準,而那個業務的經濟性對我們非常有利。
We are also able to take a larger share of wallet for our large commercial customers. And then we're able to supply more chassis cab units to the body modifiers, and we are very competitive in that space, and we have been constrained. And so we're excited about the ability to really meet this unmet demand and the strong order take that we're seeing so far gives us confidence that we'll continue to grow there.
我們也能在大型商用客戶身上取得更高的錢包份額(share of wallet)。此外,我們也能向車身改裝廠(body modifiers)供應更多底盤駕駛室(chassis cab)車輛;我們在那個領域競爭力很強,但過去一直受限於供給。因此,我們對能夠真正滿足這些未被滿足的需求感到振奮,而目前看到的強勁接單表現也讓我們有信心,未來能持續在那裡成長。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
The upside for next year for Pro is pretty meaningful between Oakville and getting past Novelis. It's really a great opportunity for us at Ford.
對明年而言,Pro 的上行空間相當可觀,主要來自 Oakville 以及度過 Novelis 相關影響之後。這對我們福特來說確實是個很好的機會。
Operator
Operator
John Saager, Evercore ISI.
John Saager,Evercore ISI。
John Saager - Analyst
John Saager - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Sorry about that. Yeah. I just wanted to take one more shot at BESS. You had mentioned the discussions for '29 and '30, advancing kind of ahead of your prior expectations. What do you need to see in terms of commitment capacity to start to think about expanding beyond that first 20 gigawatt hours. And then what does incremental CapEx look like for that?
嘿,謝謝。抱歉剛剛那樣。我想再就 BESS 問一次。你們提到針對 2029 與 2030 年的討論,進展比你們先前預期更快。要讓你們開始考慮把產能擴張到第一期 20 GWh 之外,你們需要看到什麼樣的產能承諾(commitment capacity)?另外,新增的資本支出(CapEx)大概會是什麼樣子?
And then maybe if I could ask a follow-up on just the impact to earnings as we go through the course of the year as you go through the ramp to get towards the fourth quarter of 20 gigawatt hours of capacity. Could you just -- maybe give us some puts and takes there.
另外如果可以再追問一下:當你們在今年內逐步爬坡(ramp),朝第四季達到 20 GWh 產能的過程中,對獲利(earnings)的影響會是什麼?能否請你們大概說一下其中的利多與利空因素。
Dave Carroll - President of Ford Energy
Dave Carroll - President of Ford Energy
Yes. So John, so obviously, the team is really -- this is Dave. The team is really focused on launching the initial 20 gigawatt hours that we have to bring online and ramp up in 2028. That being said, we are already evaluating scenarios, how we could best expand capacity, expand our offerings to our customers because we do see the real demand out there. But when we're doing so, we do consider the returns on our investment.
好的。John,很明顯地,團隊目前——我是 Dave——團隊非常專注在把我們第一期的 20 GWh 產能順利上線,並在 2028 年完成爬坡。話雖如此,我們也已經在評估各種情境:如何最適合擴充產能、擴大對客戶的產品/方案供給,因為我們確實看到市場上有真實需求。但在做這些評估時,我們也會考量投資報酬。
We consider the customer demand, the tax treatment and other strategic uses of capital. So we do see upside at our Kentucky one facility. We're excited for the potential growth, but we don't have anything to announce today in that regard.
我們會考量客戶需求、稅務待遇,以及資本的其他策略性用途。所以我們確實看到肯塔基一號(Kentucky one)廠有上行空間。我們對潛在成長感到興奮,但目前在這方面沒有任何事項可以對外宣布。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sherry, any text you want to give on the spending for Ford Energy next year?
Sherry,關於福特能源明年的支出,你有沒有任何想補充的內容?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
The only thing I would give is that we had talked about around $2 billion of investment, and we're going to spend about one-third of that this year and about 2/3 next year. So that gives you a little bit more understanding.
我唯一想補充的是,我們先前談到大約20億美元的投資,而今年我們大概會花其中的三分之一,明年大概花三分之二。所以這能讓你更了解一些。
Operator
Operator
Dan Levy, Barclays.
Dan Levy,巴克萊。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Hi, good evening. Thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to ask about the partnership with Geely. I believe part of the partnership is to establish learnings from them. So maybe you could just be a bit more concrete. What you hope to learn within supply base and designing the vehicle? And then I'll just extend that question to how you plan to achieve profitability on Fathom, which I think you've talked about sort of indexing or benchmarking against the Chinese, some of the supply chain opportunities there.
嗨,晚安。謝謝你們接受提問。我想問一下與吉利的合作夥伴關係。我相信合作的一部分是要從他們那裡建立學習與借鏡。所以也許你們可以再具體一點。你們希望在供應基礎以及車輛設計方面學到什麼?另外我也想把這個問題延伸到你們打算如何讓 Fathom 達到獲利;我想你們曾談到某種程度上會以中國同業作為指數化或標竿比較,並利用那裡的一些供應鏈機會。
So maybe you can talk about what you're doing with Geely? And maybe how some of that potentially extends to how you're going to achieve the right cost that you need.
所以也許你可以談談你們與吉利在做什麼?以及其中有些做法可能如何延伸到你們要達成所需的正確成本結構。
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
So let me break it down into 2 pieces. It's cost and it's quality. We are already learning that they can offer a certain percentage lower cost landed in Europe for us. So we're going through part by part, understanding each system.
我把它拆成兩個部分。一個是成本,一個是品質。我們已經在學習,他們能為我們提供在歐洲落地後成本低一定比例的方案。所以我們正逐件零件檢視,理解每一個系統。
On speed, we're learning there are a few months faster than this. And we're going through each part of the product development system to understand how they are faster than this. And a combination of both of those items is being institutionalized into our own global product development system.
在速度方面,我們學到他們比我們快了幾個月。我們正在檢視產品開發系統的每一個環節,了解他們為什麼能比我們更快。而這兩項要素的結合,正在被制度化並納入我們自己的全球產品開發系統。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
On the UEV, we always set our target even four years ago with imagining what a BYD could do in Mexico. Not because we knew -- not because we counted on that happening, but because we knew that ultimately that platform is going to be competitive. We had to make sure even in the US would be fully competitive. So that's why we took such a big swing at the innovation because we had to.
在 UEV 上,我們早在四年前就設定目標,去想像如果比亞迪能在墨西哥做出什麼。不是因為我們知道——也不是因為我們指望那會發生,而是因為我們知道最終那個平台會具備競爭力。我們必須確保即使在美國也能完全具備競爭力。所以我們才在創新上做了這麼大幅度的投入,因為我們必須這麼做。
The big breakthroughs in general, on the cost for that product is really a couple of things in general. The first is the E-Box and the whole electronics and electrical architecture and ADAS is much, much lower cost than supply chain. So we did that all in-house and the big benefit would be the cost and the design cost of that.
就整體而言,該產品在成本上的重大突破主要來自幾件事。第一是 E-Box,以及整套電子電氣架構與 ADAS,其成本遠遠低於供應鏈的既有做法。所以我們全部自行內製,而最大的好處會體現在成本以及設計成本上。
Number two, is we radically simplified the parts. So the two large unicastings, that Kumar talked about, derisking the 5,000 we've already built, that is a radical enabler for much lower part count in the vehicle. And then obviously, the labor content is much lower in the vehicle by intention.
第二,我們大幅簡化了零件。Kumar 提到的兩個大型一體式鑄件(unicastings),以及我們已經打造的5,000台所做的風險降低措施,這是讓車輛零件數大幅下降的關鍵推動因素。然後很明顯地,我們刻意讓車輛中的勞動含量大幅降低。
But there's another area that we really found to be quite advantaged relative to a BYD. And that is the efficiency of our motors, gearbox and inverters, which are about 30% more efficient than theirs and allows us to design a battery that's much less. And so that -- I think that's really critical.
但還有另一個領域,我們發現相較於比亞迪具有相當優勢,那就是我們馬達、變速箱與逆變器的效率;其效率大約比他們高30%,使我們能設計出容量更小的電池。所以——我認為那非常關鍵。
The LFP cell in Marshall is another big enabler. And I think you get the point, which is like every part of this project had to be world-class, Chinese cost efficiency in order to commence ourselves, we would be fully competitive. But it also introduced a lot of new technology and frankly, a lot of new suppliers.
在 Marshall 的 LFP 電芯也是另一個重要的推動因素。我想你明白重點:這個專案的每一個環節都必須達到世界級、具備中國式的成本效率,我們才能讓自己相信我們會完全具備競爭力。但這也帶來了許多新技術,坦白說,也帶來了許多新的供應商。
And so what we learned from UEV and what we're learning from Geely and what we want to keep strategically in the company are all getting captured at the same moment for Kumar and his team is now curating how that all is going to work along with our AI tools that Sherry mentioned. And that's why we mentioned the heart and soul of our company is going to be this new industrial system enabled by all that benchmarking, including suppliers, manufacturing efficiency, all the way to how fast we create the vehicle. That's exciting for us because it's quite a big change for Ford.
因此,我們從 UEV 學到的、以及我們正從吉利學到的、還有我們希望在公司內部策略性保留的內容,現在都在同一時間被彙整;Kumar 和他的團隊正在策劃這一切將如何運作,並結合 Sherry 提到的 AI 工具。這也是為什麼我們提到,公司「心臟與靈魂」將會是這套新的工業系統;它由所有這些標竿比較所驅動,包括供應商、製造效率,一直到我們打造車輛的速度。這對我們來說很令人振奮,因為對福特而言這是相當大的改變。
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Kumar Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, a real concrete example is the motors and the efficiencies that you mentioned in are being -- now being transported into our hybrid systems for the rest of our portfolio.
是的,一個非常具體的例子就是你提到的馬達與效率,現在正被——移轉並導入到我們其餘產品組合的混合動力系統中。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And we're putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to make sure that whether it's UEV or Geely or JMC, we -- or AI tools, we are going to move that into the core part of the company as fast as we can.
我們也對自己施加很大壓力,確保不論是 UEV、吉利或江鈴汽車(JMC)——或是 AI 工具——我們都會盡可能快地把這些導入公司的核心部分。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
以上為福特汽車公司2026年第三季財報電話會議的結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。