使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
My name is [Layla], and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company's second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)
我叫[Layla],今天將擔任各位的電話會議接線員。此刻,我謹代表福特汽車公司,歡迎各位參加2026年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Maria Ricciardone, Chief Investor Relations Officer.
此刻,我想將電話交給投資人關係長Maria Ricciardone。
Maria Ricciardone - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Maria Ricciardone - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Thank you, Layla, and welcome to Ford Motor Company's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm Maria Ricciardone, Ford's new Chief Investor Relations Officer. I most recently came from Lockheed Martin, where I was Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations.
謝謝你,Layla,也歡迎各位參加福特汽車公司2026年第二季財報電話會議。我是Maria Ricciardone,福特新任投資人關係長。我最近任職於洛克希德馬丁(Lockheed Martin),擔任財務長(Treasurer)兼投資人關係主管。
I joined Ford because the opportunity ahead is tremendous. Few companies today are navigating a transformation of this scale and this consequence. My focus will be straightforward, clear, consistent communication with all of you and ensuring the market understands how our differentiated strategy translates into profitable growth, capital discipline and shareholder value.
我加入福特,是因為前方的機會非常巨大。當今很少有公司正在推進如此規模、且影響如此深遠的轉型。我的重點將很直接:與各位進行簡明、清楚且一致的溝通,並確保市場理解我們具差異化的策略如何轉化為獲利成長、資本紀律與股東價值。
With that, let's jump in. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and Sherry House, CFO. Joining us for Q&A is Andrew Frick, President of Ford Blue and Model e; Alicia Boler-Davis, President of Ford Pro; Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer; and Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit. Jim will give a high-level overview of the business, and Sherry will provide added texture on the financials and guidance.
那麼,我們就開始吧。今天與我一同出席的有總裁暨執行長Jim Farley,以及財務長Sherry House。參與問答的還有:Ford Blue與Model e總裁Andrew Frick、Ford Pro總裁Alicia Boler-Davis、營運長Kumar Galhotra,以及Ford Credit執行長Cathy O'Callaghan。Jim將提供業務的高層概覽,Sherry則會就財務與財測提供更多細節與補充說明。
We will be referencing non-GAAP measures today. These are reconciled to the most comparable US GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck at shareholder.ford.com.
今天我們將引用非GAAP衡量指標。這些指標已在我們財報簡報的附錄中,與最可比的美國GAAP指標進行調節(reconcile)。您可至shareholder.ford.com取得簡報。
Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ. The most significant risk factors are included on page 20 of our deck. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year over year. Company EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.
我們的討論亦包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能有所不同。最重要的風險因素列於簡報第20頁。除非另有說明,所有比較皆為年對年。公司EBIT、EPS與自由現金流皆以調整後基礎呈列。
Upcoming IR engagements include Mike Aragon, President of Integrated Services, at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Tech Conference in San Francisco on September 8, and the Morgan Stanley Annual Laguna Conference in Laguna Beach on September 17.
即將進行的投資人關係(IR)活動包括:整合服務(Integrated Services)總裁Mike Aragon將於9月8日在舊金山出席高盛Communacopia + Tech大會,以及9月17日在拉古納海灘出席摩根士丹利年度Laguna大會。
Now I will turn the call over to Jim.
現在我把電話交給Jim。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Maria. I want to start by thanking our extended Ford team, all of our dealers and our suppliers for their commitment to delivering on our Ford+ plan. I especially want to highlight all the Ford team members who work so effectively through the Novelis disruption.
謝謝你,Maria。我想先感謝我們擴大的福特團隊、所有經銷商以及供應商,致力於落實我們的Ford+計畫。我也特別要表揚所有福特團隊成員,在Novelis事件造成的干擾期間仍能高效運作。
I also want to recognize our team in Canada, along with our labor partners, Unifor, under the leadership of Lana Payne for reaching a ratified three-year agreement covering all of our Canadian employees. Our business in Canada and our manufacturing operations in Oakville are really important to our future at Ford. And this agreement also underscores how important USMCA is to our future at Ford and the opportunity we have to build a framework that levels the playing field for North American manufacturers just like Ford against the mass imports from Japan and South Korea that carry a huge currency advantage.
我也要肯定我們在加拿大的團隊,以及我們的勞工夥伴Unifor,在Lana Payne的領導下,達成並完成核准一項為期三年的協議,涵蓋我們所有加拿大員工。我們在加拿大的業務,以及位於Oakville的製造營運,對福特的未來非常重要。這項協議也凸顯USMCA對福特未來的重要性,以及我們有機會建立一套框架,讓北美製造商(如福特)在面對來自日本與南韓、享有巨大匯率優勢的大量進口時,能夠在更公平的競爭環境下競爭。
In the quarter, we delivered a strong performance, generating $48.3 billion in revenue and $2.5 billion in adjusted EBIT. We are also raising and narrowing our full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to between $10 billion and $11 billion, a $1 billion raise at the midpoint. The most important part of the quarter is the growing evidence that our strategy is working. Ford is becoming a more profitable, more disciplined and generally a different company.
本季我們交出強勁表現,營收達483億美元,調整後EBIT為25億美元。我們也上調並收斂全年調整後EBIT財測至100億至110億美元區間,中位數上調10億美元。本季最重要的是,越來越多證據顯示我們的策略正在奏效。福特正變得更能獲利、更有紀律,整體而言是一家不同的公司。
Our Ford+ plan focuses on three complementary areas. Of course, we have first our core auto operations, our retail and commercial vehicles that are becoming more profitable and more dependable. Second, we have the software and physical services layer, which is growing, margin accretive and built in everything we do at Ford. And third, adjacency businesses such as Ford Energy, that open all new sources of profit for the company.
我們的Ford+計畫聚焦於三個相輔相成的領域。首先,當然是我們的核心汽車營運:零售與商用車業務,正變得更能獲利且更可靠。第二,是軟體與實體服務層,正在成長、具備提升毛利的效果,並內建於我們在福特所做的一切之中。第三,是相鄰業務(adjacency businesses),例如Ford Energy,為公司開啟全新的獲利來源。
We play only where we have real competitive advantage or we can build one, and we're ruthless about where we put our money. Every dollar must earn durable returns and drive profitable growth. So let's talk through each of these areas.
我們只在具備真正競爭優勢、或能建立競爭優勢的領域投入,而且在資金配置上非常果斷。每一美元都必須帶來可持續的報酬,並推動獲利成長。接下來我們逐一談談這些領域。
On core automotive operations, our execution is underpinned by a fundamentally stronger industrial system. For more than three years, we've been relentless about building top quality, and that work is showing up.
在核心汽車營運方面,我們的執行力建立在一個根本更強的工業體系之上。三年多來,我們持續不懈地打造頂尖品質,而這些努力正逐步展現成果。
In our home market, Ford finished number one among all mainstream brands J.D. Power's 2026 Initial Quality Study. We see this win as a first down payment on a much more consequential virtuous circle, going from initial quality to long-term durability, lowering our warranty costs even further, fewer recalls, stronger customer loyalty, more pricing power and for our conquest and growth, improved resale value.
在我們的本土市場,福特在J.D. Power 2026年新車品質研究(Initial Quality Study)中,於所有主流品牌中名列第一。我們將這次勝利視為更具關鍵意義的良性循環的第一筆「首付款」:從初期品質走向長期耐用性,進一步降低保固成本、減少召回、提升客戶忠誠度、強化定價能力,並在我們的搶占(conquest)與成長上,提升二手轉售價值。
Ford's quality renaissance goes hand-in-hand with our equally intense drive to improve our cost structure. We have significantly reduced our warranty and material costs since 2024, and we continue to optimize costs as we enter a heavy new product launch period over the next three years.
福特的品質復興,與我們同樣強烈的成本結構改善動能相輔相成。自2024年以來,我們已大幅降低保固與材料成本;在未來三年進入密集的新產品上市週期之際,我們也將持續優化成本。
Turning to the products themselves. We're reinforcing our strength in our trucks, our vans, our personality utility and off-roaders, iconic brands and distinctive products delivering real pricing power. We can see it in the quarter.
接著談產品本身。我們正在強化我們在卡車、廂型車、具鮮明個性的休旅車與越野車上的優勢;這些具代表性的品牌與差異化產品帶來實質的定價能力。本季我們已看見這點。
In Ford Blue, F series remains the number one truck brand. outselling the closest competitor by more than 80,000 units in the first half of this year and is on track for 50 straight years at the top. That's five decades of trust and capability with our customers, and we intend to extend our lead.
在Ford Blue方面,F系列仍是第一大卡車品牌;今年上半年銷量比最接近的競爭對手多出超過8萬輛,並有望連續50年位居榜首。這代表我們與客戶之間五十年的信任與能力累積,而我們打算進一步擴大領先。
But it's not just F series that makes our truck business strong. We continue to grow our customer base across our entire lineup that spans every price point in the US truck market from our Maverick all the way through the top end of our Super Duty. And there is much more to come soon, including an all-new F series and an all-new Super Duty.
但讓我們卡車業務強勁的,不只有F系列。我們持續在整個產品陣容擴大客戶基礎,涵蓋美國卡車市場各個價位帶,從Maverick一路到頂規的Super Duty。而且很快還會有更多新產品,包括全新一代F系列與全新一代Super Duty。
We also continue to see momentum with our off-road enthusiast vehicles. In fact, they now make up 25% of our US sales in the second quarter. We made a huge bet on Bronco, Tremor and Raptor, and it's paid off with higher growth and higher margins. And these vehicles are bringing new customers to Ford. They're younger, more affluent and more geographically diverse, and we are investing to grow our leadership in this space. Stay tuned.
我們也持續看到越野愛好者車款的動能。事實上,第二季這些車款已占我們美國銷量的25%。我們在Bronco、Tremor與Raptor上做了重大押注,而結果帶來更高成長與更高利潤率。這些車款也為福特帶來新客戶。他們更年輕、更富裕,且地理分布更多元;我們正加碼投資,以擴大我們在此領域的領導地位。敬請期待。
Hybrids are another strength for Ford we plan to build on. The F-150 Hybrid leads among full-size trucks and the Maverick Hybrid achieved record sales in the first half to become America's best-selling hybrid pickup. We plan to extend our hybrids across our entire lineup over the next several years.
混合動力車也是福特的另一項優勢,我們計劃在此基礎上持續深化。F-150 Hybrid 在全尺寸卡車中領先,而 Maverick Hybrid 在上半年創下銷售紀錄,成為美國最暢銷的混合動力皮卡。未來幾年,我們計劃將混合動力擴展至我們的全產品陣容。
On the commercial side, Ford Pro is the cornerstone of our global business and holds commercial vehicle market share leadership in both North America and Europe. And the Oakville expansion I referred to earlier is on track to launch in the fourth quarter of this year, adding up to 100,000 units of additional Super Duty capacity. We're investing in Super Duty production to increase our manufacturing flexibility, to add resilience and to meet pent-up demand. These investments will help drive Pro's future financial performance.
在商用領域,Ford Pro 是我們全球業務的基石,並在北美與歐洲皆擁有商用車市占率領導地位。此外,我先前提到的奧克維爾(Oakville)擴建計畫正按進度推進,預計於今年第四季投產,將新增最多 100,000 輛 Super Duty 的產能。我們正投資 Super Duty 的生產,以提升製造彈性、增強韌性並滿足累積的需求。這些投資將有助於推動 Pro 未來的財務表現。
And turning to Model e, we're aggressively driving down Gen 1 costs and will become a major scaled competitor as we invest in affordable versatile EVs. The Louisville plant changeover for the new UEV platform is well underway at Ford. You may have seen prototypes now of our first vehicles off the UEV platform testing on roads across the US. Customer deliveries will begin next year.
接著談到 Model e,我們正積極降低第一代(Gen 1)成本,並在投資可負擔且多用途的電動車之際,成為具規模的主要競爭者。福特路易斯維爾(Louisville)工廠為新 UEV 平台進行的產線切換已進入全面推進階段。你們可能已經看到我們首批基於 UEV 平台的原型車,正在美國各地道路上進行測試。客戶交付將於明年開始。
The first UEV product will compete in the affordable heart of the US EV market, where we'll offer customers a wholly new proposition that we can't find in the market today. It starts around $30,000. It has more cabin room than the Toyota RAV4, plus it has a pickup truck bed. It has bidirectional charging capability, incredibly fun to drive and personalized technology in the experience. In fact, we just announced Apple last week, as you know, will be the embedded map provider for every UEV platform vehicle. And we are very excited to show you much more about our move to be among the leaders in the EV space.
首款 UEV 產品將在美國電動車市場中可負擔的核心區間競爭,我們將為客戶提供一個目前市場上找不到的全新主張。起售價約為 30,000 美元。其座艙空間比 Toyota RAV4 更大,並且還配有皮卡貨斗。它具備雙向充電能力、駕駛樂趣十足,並在體驗中提供可個人化的科技。事實上,正如你們所知,我們上週剛宣布 Apple 將成為每一款 UEV 平台車型的內建地圖供應商。我們也非常期待向各位展示更多內容,說明我們如何邁向成為電動車領域的領導者之一。
In Europe, as you saw last week, we announced our agreement with Geely, which will bring speed and capital efficiency to our European operations.
在歐洲,正如你們上週所見,我們宣布與吉利(Geely)達成協議,這將為我們的歐洲營運帶來更快的速度與更高的資本效率。
The second area of our Ford+ plan is software and physical services, including our parts business. These businesses have significant room to grow, are central to our 8% margin target by 2029, and the idea is really simple: combine our digital services, our large dealer network, our physical services into one seamless experience, building a flywheel across software, vehicles and parts.
Ford+ 計畫的第二個領域是軟體與實體服務,包括我們的零件業務。這些業務仍有顯著成長空間,是我們到 2029 年達成 8% 利潤率目標的核心,而其理念其實很簡單:把我們的數位服務、龐大的經銷商網路與實體服務整合為一個無縫體驗,並在軟體、車輛與零件之間建立飛輪效應。
On software, we're turning a onetime sale into a lifetime relationship, as we said. We now have over 14 million connected vehicles. That's an enormous base to grow from. Our goal is to activate that base, driving real digital usage and convert engagement into reoccurring high-margin revenues.
在軟體方面,我們正如先前所說,將一次性銷售轉變為終身關係。我們目前已有超過 1,400 萬輛連網車。這是一個極其龐大的成長基礎。我們的目標是啟動這個基礎,推動真正的數位使用,並將互動轉化為可重複、具高毛利的收入。
Our services aren't just digital, they're also physical. We continue to grow our parts business. For example, we're expanding our parts catalog. We're growing our sales to US wholesalers and co-investing with our dealers to increase service [bays] and our mobile fleet.
我們的服務不僅是數位的,也包含實體服務。我們持續擴大零件業務。例如,我們正在擴充零件目錄。我們也在提升對美國批發商的銷售,並與經銷商共同投資,以增加維修工位([bays])以及我們的行動服務車隊。
Customers love our mobile service. We have over 5,000 mobile service vans and trucks on the road. And we see Net Promoter Scores much higher for remote service, leading to higher loyalty. In fact, in Q2, we delivered 1.5 million remote services at Ford, 1.1 million just in the US.
客戶非常喜愛我們的行動服務。我們已有超過 5,000 輛行動服務廂型車與卡車在路上運行。我們也看到遠端服務的淨推薦值(Net Promoter Score)明顯更高,進而帶來更高的忠誠度。事實上,在第二季,福特共提供了 150 萬次遠端服務,其中 110 萬次發生在美國。
Finally, we're making progress on our adjacent businesses. Earlier this year, we launched Ford Energy reporting through Model e. It's a strategic business for us at Ford, but one with a very short payback. Ford Energy can win because it's built on capabilities few companies can match, tariff resilient, world-class US manufacturing, leading battery technology and iconic American brand that is already familiar to communities who are most in need for grid support and infrastructure upgrades and of course, the ability to leverage our vast auto service expertise.
最後,我們在相鄰業務方面也取得進展。今年稍早,我們透過 Model e 推出了 Ford Energy 的報告服務。這對福特而言是一項策略性業務,但回收期非常短。Ford Energy 之所以能勝出,是因為它建立在少數公司難以匹敵的能力之上:具關稅韌性、世界級的美國製造、領先的電池技術,以及具代表性的美國品牌;該品牌早已為最需要電網支援與基礎設施升級的社區所熟悉,當然也包括能夠運用我們龐大的汽車維修服務專業。
By late next year, we expect to reach 20 gigawatt hours of annual capacity for Ford Energy, which is -- and we have potential to expand beyond that. We believe this will position Ford Energy among the leading energy storage manufacturers in North America.
到明年年底前後,我們預期 Ford Energy 的年產能可達 20 吉瓦時(GWh),而且——我們也有潛力在此基礎上進一步擴張。我們相信,這將使 Ford Energy 躋身北美領先的儲能製造商之列。
Scale matters in this business. It drives efficiency, improves the levelized cost of energy and creates a competitive advantage that is hard to match without the scale of global auto to leverage. We're building a business that can integrate further into energy ecosystem and that aspires to create value far beyond the sale of our DC blocks.
規模在這個業務中至關重要。它能提升效率、改善平準化能源成本(levelized cost of energy),並創造競爭優勢;若沒有可借力的全球汽車規模,這種優勢很難被複製。我們正在打造一項能更深度整合進能源生態系的業務,並期望創造遠超過我們 DC blocks 銷售本身的價值。
Our agreement with EDF Power Solutions North America is a good step to serve a broad and enduring customer base. We're in talks with a wide range of strategic customers and look forward to sharing more with you at the right time.
我們與 EDF Power Solutions North America 的協議,是服務廣泛且長期客戶基礎的重要一步。我們正與多元的策略性客戶洽談,並期待在適當時機與各位分享更多資訊。
As you can see, Ford is becoming a more disciplined, higher-return company. We have strong automotive business with an increased bit industrial system. To complement that business, we're scaling high-margin software and physical services around a seamless customer experience while leveraging Ford Credit. And adjacent to all of that, we're building new businesses like Ford Energy, where we can establish a competitive advantage.
如各位所見,福特正成為一家更自律、回報更高的公司。我們擁有強健的汽車業務,並具備更強化的工業體系。為了補強該業務,我們正圍繞無縫的客戶體驗擴大高毛利的軟體與實體服務,同時運用 Ford Credit。此外,在這一切之外,我們也在打造像 Ford Energy 這樣的新業務,讓我們能建立競爭優勢。
Over to you, Sherry.
交給你了,Sherry。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Jim, and hello, everyone. Our second-quarter results demonstrate our resiliency and intentional actions to drive profitability. In a complex macroeconomic and industry environment, we generated $48.3 billion in revenue, down 4% year over year, while earning $2.5 billion in adjusted EBIT, up 17%.
謝謝你,Jim,各位大家好。我們第二季的結果展現了我們的韌性,以及我們為推動獲利能力所採取的有意識行動。在複雜的總體經濟與產業環境下,我們創造了 483 億美元營收,年減 4%;同時調整後 EBIT 為 25 億美元,年增 17%。
Revenue was impacted due to expected volume reductions stemming from lower Novelis aluminum supply and the sunsetting of certain vehicles as we refresh our portfolio. Consistent with our deliberate actions to enhance profitability, this quarter's EBIT strength was largely a result of strong mix and net pricing.
營收受到影響,主要是因為預期中的銷量下降,源於 Novelis 鋁材供應減少,以及我們在更新產品組合時逐步停產部分車型。與我們提升獲利能力的審慎行動一致,本季 EBIT 的強勁表現主要來自產品組合(mix)與淨定價的強勢。
We generated $2.1 billion in company adjusted free cash flow and ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet, including $22.3 billion in cash and $43.4 billion in total liquidity. We remain committed to our investment-grade rating and returning capital to shareholders. In fact, over the last five years, we have returned more than $16 billion through dividends and anti-dilutive share repurchases. And today, we announced a third quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share.
我們產生了 21 億美元的公司調整後自由現金流,並以強健的資產負債表結束本季,其中包括 223 億美元現金與 434 億美元的總流動性。我們仍致力於維持投資級評等,並向股東回饋資本。事實上,在過去五年中,我們透過股利與具反稀釋效果的庫藏股回購,已回饋超過 160 億美元。而今天,我們宣布第三季每股 0.15 美元的例行股利。
Before unpacking the segment results, I want to address our $1.3 billion net loss in the quarter. As we announced in December 2025, we recognized a onetime special item charge of $3.6 billion, of which approximately $500 million was cash. This charge was related to the May disposition of the BlueOval SK Battery joint venture. We expect the vast majority of the remaining cash charges related to our December announcement, which total up to $2 billion to be completed by the end of the year.
在拆解各事業群結果之前,我想先說明本季 13 億美元的淨損。如同我們在 2025 年 12 月宣布的,我們認列了一次性特殊項目費用 36 億美元,其中約 5 億美元為現金支出。此項費用與 5 月處分 BlueOval SK Battery 合資企業有關。我們預期與 12 月公告相關的其餘現金費用(合計最高達 20 億美元)中的絕大部分,將在今年年底前完成。
Operationally, we are successfully navigating the Novelis aluminum supply recovery plan, and we remain confident in our net $1 billion EBIT improvement, heavily weighted to the second half of the year. Year to date, we have incurred about $800 million in Novelis related temporary costs and now expect a full-year cost impact of about $1.5 billion.
在營運方面,我們正成功推進 Novelis 鋁材供應復原計畫,並且仍對淨增加 10 億美元 EBIT 的改善充滿信心,且改善幅度將明顯集中在下半年。截至目前,我們已產生約 8 億美元與 Novelis 相關的暫時性成本,現預期全年成本影響約為 15 億美元。
The hot mill restart is on track and contingency material is secured. US inventory of 52 retail day supply is slightly below our target of 55 to 65 days, and we expect to return to targeted levels as the recovery progresses.
熱軋廠重啟進度如期,且備援材料已到位。美國庫存為 52 天的零售日供應量,略低於我們 55 至 65 天的目標區間;隨著復原進展,我們預期將回到目標水準。
Turning now to the core automotive highlights. Ford Blue delivered $1.1 billion in EBIT on revenue of $26.1 billion. Our revenue and EBIT were up 1% and 72% respectively, reflecting favorable product mix enabled by US regulatory changes and higher net pricing, more than offsetting an 8% decline in wholesales. These results demonstrate that our focus on off-road vehicles and passion products is resonating.
接下來談核心汽車業務重點。Ford Blue 在 261 億美元營收下,交出 11 億美元 EBIT。我們的營收與 EBIT 分別年增 1% 與 72%,反映在美國法規變更帶動的有利產品組合與更高的淨定價,且足以抵銷批發量下滑 8% 的影響。這些結果顯示,我們聚焦越野車與熱情產品的策略正在獲得市場共鳴。
We had record sales for the Bronco family in Q2, and our three-row adventure utilities are growing with Explorer and Expedition retail sales up 22% in the quarter. F-150 remains strong while inventories recover. With a disciplined go-to-market execution in Q2 that included the highest retail share, lowest incentive spend, highest share of revenue with sales focused through our most profitable channels.
第二季 Bronco 車系創下銷售紀錄;我們的三排座冒險型 SUV 也持續成長,Explorer 與 Expedition 的零售銷量在本季年增 22%。在庫存回補之際,F-150 仍維持強勁表現。第二季我們以紀律嚴謹的上市與銷售執行,包括最高的零售市占、最低的促銷補貼支出,以及最高比例的營收來自透過我們最具獲利性的通路進行銷售。
Ford Pro delivered a solid quarter despite significant headwinds, delivering $1.7 billion in EBIT and $17.8 billion of revenue, down 26% and 5%, respectively, primarily due to temporary Novelis disruption. We continue to see growth in software and physical services, highlighting the durability of our ecosystem strategy even in periods of disruption. This resiliency positions Pro to benefit from second half volume recovery.
Ford Pro 儘管面臨顯著逆風,仍交出穩健的一季,EBIT 為 17 億美元、營收為 178 億美元,分別年減 26% 與 5%,主要是因 Novelis 的暫時性中斷所致。我們持續看到軟體與實體服務的成長,凸顯即使在受干擾期間,我們生態系策略仍具持久性。這種韌性使 Pro 能在下半年量能復原時受益。
We are confident in the pricing power of our Pro business. And although early, 2027 model year customer contracting in North America is off to a fast start, placing us about a month ahead of where we were last year.
我們對 Pro 業務的定價能力充滿信心。此外,雖然仍在早期階段,北美 2027 年式車款的客戶合約洽談已快速展開,使我們較去年同期約提前一個月。
For Model e, we reported an EBIT loss of $919 million on revenue of $1 billion, reflecting a 31% EBIT improvement on declining revenue. This was our third consecutive quarter of year-over-year EBIT improvement.
就 Model e 而言,我們在 10 億美元營收下,回報 EBIT 虧損 9.19 億美元;在營收下滑的情況下,EBIT 仍改善 31%。這是我們連續第三季實現 EBIT 年對年改善。
[Progress] was driven by structural cost reductions, rightsized Gen 1 volumes and lower US incentives following regulatory relaxation. We continue to prioritize profitability and capital efficiency on our path to breakeven. As such, we expect to improve Gen 1 EBIT by approximately 40% year over year in 2026, paving the way for our investments in UEV and Ford Energy.
[進展]主要來自結構性成本降低、第一代(Gen 1)產量的適度調整,以及在法規放寬後美國促銷補貼下降。在邁向損益兩平的道路上,我們仍以獲利能力與資本效率為優先。因此,我們預期 2026 年 Gen 1 的 EBIT 將年對年改善約 40%,為我們在 UEV 與 Ford Energy 的投資鋪路。
Our software and physical services keep getting stronger. Total paid subscriptions grew about 50% to roughly 1.6 million, including more than 900,000 Ford Pro intelligence paid subscriptions. Customers are actively choosing to pay for these services beyond an included trial, a direct signal of value. We've also seen positive net pricing in our parts business in line with the industry. These services carry attractive margins and create recurring customer relationships.
我們的軟體與實體服務持續增強。付費訂閱總數成長約 50%,至約 160 萬,其中包含超過 90 萬個 Ford Pro Intelligence 付費訂閱。客戶在包含的試用期結束後仍主動選擇付費使用這些服務,這是價值的直接訊號。我們也看到零件業務的淨定價呈現正向,與產業趨勢一致。這些服務具備吸引人的毛利,並能建立可重複的客戶關係。
Ford Credit delivered another solid quarter, with EBT of $757 million, up $112 million. These results reflect our strong financing margin, our high-quality portfolio and our disciplined approach to capital and risk management. We remain confident in the quality of our portfolio and ability to continue supporting the market shift toward longer-term financing options for customers.
Ford Credit 再度交出穩健的一季,稅前盈餘(EBT)為 7.57 億美元,增加 1.12 億美元。這些結果反映我們強勁的融資利差、高品質的資產組合,以及在資本與風險管理上的紀律作法。我們仍對資產組合品質與持續支持市場轉向較長期融資選項的能力充滿信心。
We also continue to execute on our multiyear certified preowned enterprise strategy, which ultimately protects our residual values. According to third-party data, our year-to-date CPO unit sales growth in the US is over 20%, now positioning us as the number two CPO brand in the market.
我們也持續推進多年期的原廠認證中古車(CPO)企業策略,最終可保護我們的殘值。依第三方數據顯示,我們今年迄今在美國的 CPO 單位銷量成長超過 20%,目前使我們成為市場第二大 CPO 品牌。
Now I'll turn to our 2026 outlook. For the full year, we now expect company adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $11 billion, narrowing the range and increasing the midpoint by $1 billion, driven by strong pricing and mix. An increase in adjusted free cash flow to $6 billion to $7 billion, which now includes flow through of this higher EBIT and our expectation to receive in 2026, about $500 million of the $1.3 billion IEEPA reimbursement we booked in Q1. And capital expenditures remain unchanged at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion as we invest in higher return growth opportunities.
接下來我將說明我們對 2026 年的展望。就全年而言,我們目前預期公司調整後 EBIT 為 100 億至 110 億美元,區間收斂且中位數上調 10 億美元,主要由強勁的定價與產品組合所帶動。調整後自由現金流提高至 60 億至 70 億美元,現已納入較高 EBIT 的流入效應,以及我們預期在 2026 年收到第一季入帳的 13 億美元 IEEPA 補償款中的約 5 億美元。資本支出維持不變,為 95 億至 105 億美元,因我們持續投資於更高報酬的成長機會。
Our guidance does not include potential impacts of a significant escalation in the Middle East or a material downturn in the US economy, which could have a substantial impact on industry demand.
我們的指引未納入中東局勢顯著升級或美國經濟出現重大下行的潛在影響;這些情況可能對產業需求造成重大衝擊。
For our full-year segment outlook, we now expect an increase in Ford Blue's EBIT range to $5 billion to $5.5 billion, a narrowing of Ford Pro's EBIT range to $7 billion to $7.5 billion, an improvement in Model e losses to about $4 billion. This includes about $1 billion in incremental investment for UEV and Ford Energy, mostly weighted towards the second half of the year. And for Ford Credit, EBT is now expected to be above $2.5 billion.
就全年各事業部展望而言,我們目前預期 Ford Blue 的 EBIT 區間上調至 50 億至 55 億美元;Ford Pro 的 EBIT 區間收斂至 70 億至 75 億美元;Model e 的虧損改善至約 40 億美元。其中包含針對 UEV 與 Ford Energy 的約 10 億美元新增投資,且多數將集中在下半年。至於 Ford Credit,目前預期 EBT 將高於 25 億美元。
Our guidance continues to assume a US SAAR of 16 million to 16.5 million units, commodity headwinds of just above $2 billion and we remain on track to deliver $1 billion in material and warranty cost reductions in 2026, enabling our increased investments to UEV and Ford Energy. For US industry pricing, we now expect full year to be about 0.5 point higher at plus 50 basis points.
我們的指引仍假設美國 SAAR 為 1,600 萬至 1,650 萬輛、大宗商品逆風略高於 20 億美元;同時我們仍按計畫在 2026 年實現 10 億美元的材料與保固成本降低,以支持我們增加對 UEV 與 Ford Energy 的投資。就美國產業定價而言,我們目前預期全年將上調約 0.5 個百分點至正 50 個基點。
The accomplishments this quarter reinforce our trajectory. The investments we are making in our truck lineup, UEV Platform, Ford Energy and high-margin services will bolster our margins over time, keeping us firmly on the path to our 8% EBIT margin target by 2029.
本季的成果強化了我們的發展軌跡。我們在卡車產品線、UEV 平台、Ford Energy 以及高毛利服務上的投資,將隨時間推升我們的利潤率,並使我們穩健走在 2029 年達成 8% EBIT 利潤率目標的道路上。
With that, let's open the line for your questions.
接下來,我們開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Andrew Percoco, Morgan Stanley.
(接線員指示) Morgan Stanley 的 Andrew Percoco。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Great. Can you guys hear me?
很好。你們聽得到我嗎?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We sure can. Thank you.
當然聽得到。謝謝。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Great. Well, congrats on the really strong results this quarter. I do want to start on the energy storage side of the business and just hoping to get more of an update in terms of the conversations that you're having on that front. Obviously, we saw the EDF agreement. So utilities do seem like the obvious customer here just given some of your long-standing relationships there with Ford Pro. But I am just curious to what extent you're having conversations directly with hyperscalers that might want to lock up some of your domestic battery capacity.
很好。那麼,恭喜你們本季交出非常強勁的成果。我想先從能源儲存這一塊業務談起,並希望就你們在這方面的洽談進展取得更多更新。顯然,我們看到了與 EDF 的協議。因此,考量你們與 Ford Pro 在公用事業領域長期建立的關係,公用事業公司看起來確實是很明顯的客戶。但我也好奇,你們在多大程度上正直接與超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)洽談,這些業者可能希望鎖定你們的國內電池產能。
So it's really a two-part question. One, are you engaging with the hyperscalers about direct offtake? And two, what inning would you say you're in, in terms of getting some incremental contracts to market -- to the market?
所以這其實是個兩段式的問題。第一,你們是否正在就直接承購(direct offtake)與超大規模雲端業者(hyperscalers)接洽?第二,就把一些新增合約推向市場而言,你會說目前進展到第幾局了——也就是離落地還有多遠?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Just to take a step back, what we hear from our customers is we're in the center of the market, a 20-foot containerized LFP prismatic solution DC block with a two- and a four-hour configuration is exactly the heart of the market. So that's a real positive.
當然。先退一步說,我們從客戶那裡聽到的是:我們正處於市場核心;一個20英尺貨櫃化的LFP方形(prismatic)解決方案DC block,提供2小時與4小時配置,正好就是市場的主流需求。所以這是非常正面的訊號。
They also appreciate our approach to service, prognostics, remote monitoring. That's a real big positive that Ford can bring to the -- as a product. We are -- people are excited about the talent in our team. We have specialized talent that have real experience in this market building this business.
他們也很欣賞我們在服務、預後診斷(prognostics)、遠端監控方面的做法。這是Ford能夠帶來的——作為產品的一個很大優勢。我們——大家也對我們團隊的人才感到興奮。我們有具備專業能力的人才,在這個市場中打造這門業務有實際經驗。
The kind of conversations we're having, we're in the real depth now. The demand signal is very strong for us. And given there's about a six-month lag between kind of when you start, when the projects have to land, we're kind of a little bit -- we're like in the first or second inning to tell you everything about the customer for '28 capacity, but it looks really good.
我們目前的對話類型,已經進入非常深入的階段。對我們而言,需求訊號非常強。而且考量到從開始到專案必須落地大約有六個月的時間差,就2028年產能的客戶情況而言,我們大概還在第一局或第二局,還無法把所有細節都講完,但看起來非常不錯。
We're in line with our forecast inside the company, which I won't go over, but we're seeing a broad group of customers. They are not just utility providers. There are other -- in fact, every day that goes by, we see more broader application of storage batteries from broader customer bases.
我們的進度與公司內部的預測一致,我就不在這裡展開,但我們確實看到很廣泛的一群客戶。他們不只是公用事業(utility)供應商。還有其他——事實上,隨著時間推進,我們每天都看到儲能電池在更廣泛的客群與更廣泛的應用場景中被採用。
We have a whole process where we're monitoring the customers they go through because these are projects oriented -- these are project quotes. We go from kind of initial early discussions, then we go through the legal and contracting phase and then we have the final contract at the end. So I would say we're kind of in the third inning of selling out the 2028 capacity of 20 gigawatt hours.
我們有一整套流程來監測客戶所走的各個階段,因為這些是以專案為導向——這些是專案報價。我們從最初的早期討論開始,接著進入法務與簽約階段,最後以最終合約收尾。所以我會說,就售罄2028年20吉瓦時產能而言,我們大概在第三局。
I would say, just to emphasize in my speech, that we have the capacity to upgrade at Kentucky One, and that we are building prototype cells already in Marshall, Michigan. So this is not a theoretical business. We are building cells already. And obviously, Kentucky One is building out a little bit later than Marshall.
我想強調一下,就像我在發言中提到的,我們有能力在Kentucky One進行升級擴充,而且我們已經在密西根州Marshall開始製造原型電芯。所以這不是一個理論上的業務。我們已經在製造電芯了。當然,Kentucky One的建置時程會比Marshall稍晚一些。
I hope that gives you some more texture.
希望這能讓你更有一些具體的理解。
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Andrew Percoco - Analyst
Yeah, that's great. If I could just sneak a quick follow-up there. What are some of the things that you're looking at specifically in terms of whether or not you decide to add additional capacity? Is it simply booking out the first 80% of that 20 gigawatt hours over a multiyear period? Or are there other things that you're kind of looking at, whether it's legislative tax credit related in terms of your decision to go ahead and move and add more capacity?
是的,這很棒。如果我可以再追問一個很快的問題。你們在決定是否要增加額外產能時,具體會看哪些因素?是否只是看在多年期內把那20吉瓦時中的前80%先簽滿?還是你們也會看其他因素,例如與立法稅額抵免相關的內容,來決定是否要往前推進並增加更多產能?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think your list is pretty good. I think it's basically three areas. Obviously, the tax treatment is very important for customers. We are also looking very carefully at strategic choices for the company. And we're looking obviously at the customer flows.
我覺得你列的清單相當不錯。基本上是三個面向。很明顯,稅務待遇對客戶非常重要。我們也非常仔細地評估公司在策略上的選擇。另外,我們當然也會看客戶需求與訂單流量。
So I would say the list you have is a good working list. I don't want to get any more specifics than that.
所以我會說,你提出的清單是一份很好的工作清單。我不想再比這更具體了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Alex Perry, B of A.
(接線員指示) Alex Perry,美國銀行(B of A)。
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Alexander Perry - Analyst
Congrats on a strong quarter. So I just wanted to ask a bit more on the mix opportunity. So off-road performance trims and other higher-margin trims such as your [V8] series continue to increase as a percent of sales.
恭喜本季表現強勁。我想再多問一點關於產品組合(mix)機會的問題。越野性能等級(performance trims)以及其他高毛利等級(例如你們的[V8]系列)在銷售占比中持續提升。
Maybe just talk to us what are the key drivers of the strong trim mix? And how we should be thinking about the mix benefit throughout the balance of the year?
能否談談推動強勁等級組合的關鍵驅動因素是什麼?以及我們應該如何看待今年剩餘期間的組合效益?
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue and Model e
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue and Model e
Yeah. Thank you, Alex. This is Andrew Frick. We have seen certainly some product and series mix as a position of strength for us right now. And I think a couple of the key drivers are, it's a direct reflection of the choices we've made in our brand positioning as well as some of the regulatory environment changes that help us match customer demand.
好的。謝謝你,Alex。我是Andrew Frick。我們確實看到一些產品與車系組合,成為我們目前的一個優勢位置。我認為其中幾個關鍵驅動因素是:這直接反映了我們在品牌定位上的選擇,以及一些法規環境的變化,讓我們能更好地匹配客戶需求。
So Jim made some comments in his statements in his opening comments, and I'll maybe add a little context to that. We've seen growth in our portfolio mix -- our product portfolio mix and large utilities in the Bronco family. In fact, Bronco family had our best first half sales ever.
Jim在開場發言中提到了一些看法,我補充一點背景。我們看到產品組合——我們的產品組合,以及Bronco家族中的大型高配(large utilities)車型占比有所成長。事實上,Bronco家族創下我們史上最佳的上半年銷售表現。
You mentioned off-road mix. We grew that by over 3.5 points in the first half and actually in the second quarter, it was up over 4 points year over year. And we have series mixes like Tremor that is now 15% of our Expedition sales and Raptor is really strong right now across our portfolio. We've grown our Raptor sales 9% so far this year. So -- and you mentioned the V8, so we're increasing our V8 mix as well.
你提到越野組合。我們在上半年把這個占比提高了超過3.5個百分點,而在第二季同比更是提升超過4個百分點。另外,我們也有像Tremor這樣的車系組合,目前已占Expedition銷售的15%,而Raptor在我們整個產品組合中目前也非常強勁。今年迄今我們的Raptor銷量成長了9%。所以——你也提到V8,我們也正在提高V8的組合占比。
Bottom line, to answer the question is we expect that level of product mix and series mix to continue through the balance of the year.
總結來回答你的問題:我們預期這樣的產品組合與車系組合水準,會在今年剩餘期間持續。
Operator
Operator
Joseph Spak, UBS.
Joseph Spak,瑞銀(UBS)。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Maybe you could just talk -- I heard in the prepared comments that the Novelis ramp is proceeding as expected. Maybe you can just talk a little bit about what you see for F series here in the back half? Because in your guidance, you do factor in the lower volume recovery. So that's a little bit more measured. And it doesn't sound like it relates to Novelis. So is that just some prudence because of what you're seeing in terms of the competitive dynamics in that segment and you want to remain pretty vigilant there to protect price?
也許你可以談談——我在事先準備的發言中聽到Novelis的爬坡(ramp)正按預期進行。能否再談一下你們對下半年F系列的看法?因為在你們的指引中,確實納入了較低的銷量回升。所以看起來更為審慎一些。而且聽起來這並不是與Novelis有關。所以這只是因為你們看到該細分市場的競爭動態而採取更謹慎的態度,並希望保持高度警覺以保護價格嗎?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. Thanks. I'd let Andrew comment, but what we are seeing, F series is around 45 days supply, which for us, is very lean. So we have a lot of upside on the wholesale side, not just from retail side.
是的。謝謝。我先讓Andrew補充,不過我們看到的是,F系列目前大約是45天的庫存供應量(days supply),對我們而言這非常精實。所以我們在批發端有很大的上行空間,不只是零售端。
Andrew, anything you want to highlight?
Andrew,你有什麼想特別強調的嗎?
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue and Model e
Andrew Frick - President - Ford Blue and Model e
Yeah, I would just add the overall truck demand right now across from Maverick all the way up to Super Duty is really strong, and we're seeing strength across the lineup. Maverick Hybrid achieved a record in the first half.
是的,我只想補充,目前整體卡車需求從Maverick一路到Super Duty都非常強勁,我們看到整個產品線都很有力道。Maverick Hybrid在上半年創下紀錄。
For F series specifically, we're really confident in the strength of our F series business right now. Jim mentioned, we're on our way to 50 years of leadership. And our -- we lead the competition right now in key go-to-market metrics. So we have significantly lower incentives, higher share, higher share of revenue with really strong turn rates, which is an indication of the strong demand.
就 F 系列而言,我們目前對 F 系列業務的實力非常有信心。Jim 提到,我們正邁向 50 年的領導地位。而且我們——在關鍵的上市(go-to-market)指標上,目前領先競爭對手。因此我們的激勵金明顯更低、市占更高、在營收中的占比更高,且周轉率非常強勁,這顯示需求強勁。
And we're also being really disciplined on our channel mix with the limited production we have. In fact, we've had a really low rental volume, where a lot of our competitors have really increased this year, year over year. So as Jim just mentioned, our days' supplies are in good shape at 45. That gives us upside coming out and the demand continues to look really strong.
同時,在我們產量有限的情況下,我們也非常嚴格地管理通路組合。事實上,我們的租賃量一直很低,而許多競爭對手今年相較去年同期大幅提高。所以如 Jim 剛才提到的,我們的庫存天數維持在 45 天,狀況良好。這讓我們在後續有上行空間,而且需求看起來仍然非常強勁。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
What drives lower volume recovery?
是什麼因素導致較低的銷量復甦?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Can you repeat that, Joe? I didn't hear it -- we didn't hear you exactly.
Joe,你可以再說一次嗎?我沒聽清楚——我們沒有完全聽到你的問題。
Joseph Spak - Analyst
Joseph Spak - Analyst
You mentioned in the guidance that the lower aluminum headwind is offset by a lower volume -- the volume recoveries at the lower end. So I'm just curious what changed there?
你在財測指引中提到,較低的鋁材逆風被較低的銷量——也就是銷量復甦落在較低端——所抵銷。所以我想了解那裡有什麼變化?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
It's just mix. It is just mix. And as I said, that we are planning to be able to still have a year-over-year improvement of $1 billion. So you had roughly $2.5 billion on the top line, $1.5 billion due to Novelis costs now lower than what we had originally thought, before we thought $1.5 billion to $2 billion, but now it's tracking at the lower end. So the results are going to be the same in terms of what we guided, and it's the mix change.
只是產品組合(mix)的問題。真的只是組合。而且如我所說,我們仍規劃能達成年增改善 10 億美元。所以你在營收端大約有 25 億美元,其中 15 億美元來自 Novelis 成本低於我們原先預期;先前我們以為會是 15 億到 20 億美元,但現在的走勢落在較低端。因此就我們所給的指引而言,結果會是一樣的,差異在於組合變化。
Operator
Operator
Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs 的 Mark Delaney。
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Mark Delaney - Analyst
Which is on the tariff and trade environment. I think on tariffs, you left your outlook unchanged. But under the current policy rules. Maybe talk about the ability to further mitigate that going forward.
想問關於關稅與貿易環境。我認為在關稅方面,你們維持展望不變。但那是在現行政策規則之下。能否談談未來進一步降低影響的能力?
And you also spoke a bit on USMCA. And Jim, curious if you have any early thoughts around how the discussions are going? And based on some of the proposals to potentially require more US-specific content, how might that affect Ford's operations and supply chain?
你們也稍微談到 USMCA。Jim,我想了解你對目前討論進展是否有任何初步看法?另外,基於一些提案可能要求更多美國特定(US-specific)的內容比例,這可能會如何影響福特的營運與供應鏈?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Well, let me just comment on USMCA because it's very critical. Look, Ford is an unusual company in a way we build the most in the US. We have the best ratio between imports and our local production. We also export the most. And even for us, this -- an improved USMCA could be a great opportunity for the industry and for Ford.
當然。我先談 USMCA,因為這非常關鍵。你看,福特在某種程度上是一家很特別的公司,我們在美國本土生產最多。我們的進口與本地生產之間的比例是最好的。我們也是出口最多的。即便對我們而言,一份更完善的 USMCA 也可能為整個產業以及福特帶來很好的機會。
What we're -- and we've had really good not only conversations with the US administration and USTR, but also with Mexico and Canada. So I think because of Ford, we're Ford. We have great access to everyone. And I think at the top of the house, we all have the same kind of principle, which is build a stronger US industrial base.
我們——不僅與美國政府與美國貿易代表署(USTR)有非常良好的對話,也與墨西哥和加拿大保持良好溝通。所以我認為,因為我們是福特——我們是福特。我們能很好地接觸到各方。而且我認為在最高層面,我們都有相同的原則:打造更強健的美國工業基礎。
Our orientation for USMCA is maybe a bit different than others. We want to make it easier for Ford and other US makers to compete with Japan and South Korea. They have incredibly strong local supply chains like steel and aluminum. They have much weaker currencies. In some cases, 40-year lows. And they have a modest 15% tariff, even some of our domestic competitors import from those locations, and they have huge advantages.
我們對 USMCA 的立場可能與其他人略有不同。我們希望讓福特以及其他美國車廠更容易與日本、南韓競爭。他們擁有極其強大的在地供應鏈,例如鋼鐵與鋁。他們的貨幣也弱得多。在某些情況下,甚至是 40 年低點。而且他們只面臨溫和的 15% 關稅;甚至我們的一些國內競爭對手也從那些地區進口,因此他們有很大的優勢。
We are prepared to support revising the USMCA so long as it allows the promotion of more competitive US auto sector. And that's really our lens for this negotiation. It's really we want to put Ford and companies like Ford that are committed to US manufacturing in an advantaged, a better level playing field with these foreign competitors.
只要修訂 USMCA 能促進更具競爭力的美國汽車產業,我們就準備支持。這就是我們看待這場談判的角度。我們真正想要的是,讓像福特這樣承諾在美國製造的公司,在與這些海外競爭對手競爭時能處於更有利的位置,擁有更公平的競爭環境。
We're in the early days of engaging. So at this point, I think it's very early days, but that's going to be our orientation.
我們才剛開始投入接觸。所以目前我認為還在非常早期的階段,但這將會是我們的立場方向。
In terms of tariffs, et cetera, I think there has been some recent news. But I would say as a whole, Ford, I think, has done a good job with our exposure to tariffs. And I think we've worked really hard with the administration as well as even our strategy around collecting cash to really manage through this in a way that advantages the company. I don't want to get into specifics because I think those are pretty well documented by the team.
至於關稅等等,我認為最近確實有一些新聞。但整體而言,我會說福特在關稅曝險管理上做得不錯。而且我們也非常努力與政府合作,同時在現金回收策略上也下了很多功夫,以便用對公司更有利的方式來度過這段期間。我不想談太多細節,因為我認為團隊已經有相當完整的公開說明。
Operator
Operator
Dan Levy, Barclays.
Barclays 的 Dan Levy。
Dan Levy - Analyst
Dan Levy - Analyst
Okay. Great. About a month ago, you put out a headline that you ranked number one in this J.D. Power Initial Quality Study. And I know that warranty and quality has been sort of a journey for you and you reiterated some of the cost benefits this year.
好的。很好。大約一個月前,你們發布了一則標題,表示在 J.D. Power 初始品質研究中排名第一。我知道保固與品質對你們而言一直是一段歷程,而你們也重申了今年的一些成本效益。
But maybe you can just give us a sense of just an update for (technical difficulty) and what this headline potentially means on incremental cost outs in the future on the warranty side? Just any reads factoring as well for 2027 and beyond?
但也許你們可以就(技術問題)提供一下最新進展,以及這個標題在未來保固端可能意味著哪些額外的成本下降?另外,對 2027 年及之後的任何觀察或納入考量的因素?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Okay. I think, Sherry, it would be great to get your view from the financial standpoint, but I think the real essence of this is this question about the lagging indicator of recalls versus our initial quality. And I would just emphasize that recalls are not all the same. The software recall and a powertrain recall are quite different things.
好的。我想 Sherry 從財務角度提供看法會很棒,但我認為這個問題的核心其實是在問:相較於初始品質,召回是一個落後指標。我也要強調,召回並不都一樣。軟體召回與動力系統召回是截然不同的事情。
So Kumar, do you want to make a comment about the kind of cost variance that you're seeing.
所以 Kumar,你要不要評論一下你看到的那種成本差異(cost variance)?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
So I'll go ahead and start with the financials. So we do see continued improvement on a year-over-year basis. So very clear about that on warranty as well as material cost. And that is what comprises the $1 billion year-over-year improvement that we're looking to see that we do plan to reinvest in UEV and Ford Energy.
那我先從財務面開始。我們確實看到保固以及材料成本在年對年基礎上持續改善。這點非常明確。而這些構成了我們所預期的年對年 10 億美元改善,我們也計畫將其再投資於 UEV 與 Ford Energy。
In terms of where that's coming from, it's coming from coverages, which is initial quality, which is the number one mainstream brand award directly relates to. And that is one of the best indicators is I'll let Kumar talk about that, our recall financials will also follow suit shortly.
至於改善來源,主要來自承保範圍(coverages),也就是初始品質;這與獲得主流品牌第一名獎項有直接關聯。這是最好的指標之一——我讓 Kumar 來談;我們的召回財務表現也會很快跟上。
Ashwani Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Ashwani Galhotra - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. The initial quality improvement is great, but this focus is permanent. We're focusing on long-term durability and obviously, lowering warranty costs. That will turn into eventually lower recall costs as well.
是的。初始品質的改善很棒,但我們對品質的關注是長期且持續的。我們聚焦於長期耐久性,並且顯然要降低保固成本。這最終也會轉化為更低的召回成本。
So this year, we've recalled about 12 million vehicles, but the number of recalls is down very substantially from last year. It's down about 40%. And this reflects our intensive strategy to quickly find and fix any hardware or software issues and go the extra mile to protect our customers.
所以今年我們已召回約1,200萬輛車,但召回數量相較去年大幅下降。大約下降了40%。這反映了我們採取密集策略,快速找出並修復任何硬體或軟體問題,並且更進一步保護我們的客戶。
We are seeing substantial improvements in our newer model years both in numbers of recalls and recall volumes and, of course, warranty. So it's a bit of a, like Jim said, a virtuous cycle that's starting to begin initial quality great. It will turn into long-term quality and as well as recall improvements over time. (multiple speakers)
我們看到在較新的車型年度中,無論是召回次數、召回規模,當然還有保固方面,都有顯著改善。所以這有點像Jim說的,一個良性循環開始形成:初期品質表現很好。它會轉化為長期品質,並且隨時間帶來召回改善。(多位講者)
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
This is one of the most important road maps to our 8% margin is continue to close the cost gap. And we're seeing initial -- good initial indications. We want to do absolutely what's right for the customer.
這是我們達成8%利潤率最重要的路線圖之一:持續縮小成本差距。我們也看到初步——相當不錯的初步跡象。我們希望做對客戶絕對正確的事。
What I'm most excited about is the work I'm seeing in the next-generation products in the powertrains. The team is absolutely obsessed with these next generation of products being engineered with the right supply chain to make a massive move forward in our cost of quality.
我最興奮的是我在下一代動力系統產品上看到的工作。團隊對於以正確的供應鏈來打造這一代下一代產品極度投入,目標是在我們的品質成本上實現大幅躍進。
Operator
Operator
Tom Narayan, RBC.
Tom Narayan,RBC。
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Tom Narayan - Analyst
Welcome, Maria. So one of the big learnings that we're seeing in recent weeks has been how automakers are benefiting from software. We already know about how great this is for you guys at Pro. But I wanted to ask about BlueCruise specifically.
歡迎,Maria。所以我們在最近幾週看到的一個重要收穫,是汽車製造商如何從軟體中受益。我們已經知道這對你們Pro業務有多好。但我想特別問一下BlueCruise。
Could you comment about how BlueCruise might be contributing to forward financials? And then just an add-on to that, the Apple Maps integration, could this expand beyond the [UEV] platform to other Ford vehicles?
你能談談BlueCruise可能如何對未來財務表現做出貢獻嗎?另外再追問一下,Apple Maps的整合,是否可能從[UEV]平台擴展到其他福特車款?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
For sure, it could. We haven't made any announcements, but we're really impressed with the progress that Apple's made in their map. And we really see the benefit for customers to have a great integrated solution.
當然可以。我們還沒有發布任何公告,但我們對Apple在地圖方面取得的進展印象深刻。而且我們確實看到,為客戶提供一個優秀的整合式解決方案會帶來很大好處。
I would guess the big story there for Ford is the transformation of our electric architectures. I don't think it's been covered in the media yet, but UEV has a fully [zonal] electric architecture with our own software and our new generation products will come with a massive upgrade to our electric architectures with a lot of software coming from Ford. And in fact, the ADAS solution and the integration of Apple Maps are going to be mostly Ford efforts. So that is a major step forward for our customers. And I think that's strategically the most important thing.
我猜對福特來說,那裡最大的故事是我們電氣架構的轉型。我不認為媒體目前已經報導過,但UEV採用完整的[分區式]電氣架構,搭配我們自有的軟體;而我們的新一代產品將在電氣架構上迎來大幅升級,其中有大量軟體將由福特提供。事實上,ADAS解決方案以及Apple Maps的整合,將主要由福特來推動。所以這對我們的客戶而言是重大進展。我認為從策略上看,這是最重要的事情。
We still continue to see great revenue growth for BlueCruise. It's probably on the retail side, our best proof point for software. Paid subscriptions in Q2 grew by 20%, which is great to see. And in fact, BlueCruise made up 50% of our retail integrated services revenue. So that's how important BlueCruise is.
我們仍然持續看到BlueCruise的營收強勁成長。在零售端,它大概是我們軟體能力最好的驗證點。第二季付費訂閱成長了20%,很高興看到這點。而且BlueCruise占我們零售整合式服務營收的50%。所以BlueCruise就是這麼重要。
And the cost is going to come down. The functionality will go up. Even the UEV is going to have a ramp to ramp, offering the on-ramp L2 capability, which no one in that segment at that price point has anything close to that.
而成本會下降。功能性會提升。甚至UEV也會具備從匝道到匝道(ramp-to-ramp)的能力,提供匝道匯入的L2功能,在那個價位帶的同級產品中,沒有人有任何接近的方案。
So on BlueCruise, I think for people to get a dimension of the scale, we have now 12.1 million or more than 12 million hours used since launch, and we're approaching 1 billion miles, 840 million miles now in BlueCruise.
所以談到BlueCruise,為了讓大家了解規模,我們自推出以來的使用時數已達1,210萬小時,或超過1,200萬小時;而行駛里程正接近10億英里,目前BlueCruise累計為8.4億英里。
It's something that our dealers are getting better at selling. It's something that we are getting better at specking out tied to our series mix and packaging. So I would say it's really -- the revenue management capability in the company around the software is really improving. That doesn't take away at all the Pro software that also is growing really fast. But since that was your question, wanted to hone in on ADAS and Apple Maps.
這也是我們經銷商越來越擅長銷售的項目。我們也越來越擅長把它與我們的車系組合與配備打包做規格配置。所以我會說,公司在軟體相關的營收管理能力確實正在提升。這完全不會削弱同樣成長很快的Pro軟體。但既然你問的是這個,我想聚焦在ADAS與Apple Maps。
Operator
Operator
Mike Ward, Citigroup.
Mike Ward,花旗集團。
Michael Ward - Analyst
Michael Ward - Analyst
One clarification. Jim, you mentioned Super Duty is an extra 100,000. Did you specify where that was coming from? And then my question really is just a follow-on on the subscription side. You mentioned the Ford Pro at 900,000, I think that was in your sales release. And then, Sherry, you talked about 1.6 million subscriptions.
一個釐清。Jim,你提到Super Duty多出10萬輛。你有說明那是從哪裡來的嗎?然後我的問題其實是延伸到訂閱這一塊。你提到Ford Pro有90萬,我想那是在你們的銷售新聞稿裡。然後Sherry,你談到有160萬個訂閱。
Is the remaining portion of that BlueCruise? And how -- I assume you're looking at it from a financial standpoint on the margin contribution rather than revenue given the size of Ford. But is it getting to the point that in the next two years, we could see these things, the subscription revenues, adding 0.5 point to margin at Ford Pro and overall Ford automotive margin? Is that the type of direction we're looking at?
那剩下的部分是BlueCruise嗎?以及——我假設你們從財務角度看的是對利潤率的貢獻,而不是營收,考量到福特的規模。但是否已經到了這樣的程度:在未來兩年,我們可能看到這些訂閱營收,讓Ford Pro以及整體福特汽車業務的利潤率增加0.5個百分點?這是我們應該期待的方向嗎?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. That's a pretty long question, but thank you. Maybe Alicia, I'll ask you to comment on Ford Pro software, and then Sherry, if you want to touch on then the subscription numbers.
是的。這是一個相當長的問題,但謝謝你。也許Alicia,我請你先評論一下Ford Pro軟體;然後Sherry,如果你願意的話,再談談訂閱數字。
I will just say, overall, companies measure subscription and paid subscription a little differently. And so it's kind of apples and oranges depending on the company. Some companies bundle them into their vehicles with the trial.
我只想說,整體而言,各家公司對「訂閱」與「付費訂閱」的衡量方式略有不同。所以視公司而定,有點像拿蘋果比橘子。有些公司會把試用期的訂閱與車輛一起打包。
We really, at Ford, just philosophically, we are focused on paid subscription. Even though we have a lot of subscriptions that aren't paid, for example, trial. We're very focused on paid subscription. So you'll hear that at Ford maybe more than others.
在福特,我們在理念上確實聚焦於付費訂閱。即使我們有很多不是付費的訂閱,例如試用。我們非常專注在付費訂閱。所以你會在福特聽到這點,可能比在其他公司更常聽到。
Alicia?
Alicia?
Alicia Davis - President - Ford Pro
Alicia Davis - President - Ford Pro
Yes. Yes, I can make a comment. First, Michael, on your first question around you mentioning 100,000 additional Super Dutys. And so we're launching the Oakville facility later this year, and we'll have capacity to produce up to 100,000 additional Super Dutys.
是。是的,我可以補充說明。首先,Michael,關於你第一個問題提到的額外10萬輛Super Duty。我們將在今年稍晚啟用Oakville工廠,屆時將具備最多可額外生產10萬輛Super Duty的產能。
Relative to software and Pro, we're continuing to drive a profitable growth really by expanding software services and parts to increase our share of wallet. As Jim mentioned, we really focused on paid subscriptions, and we're over 900,000 for Pro. That's over 20% year-over-year growth, and we expect to continue to see that growing through the balance of the year, and it will be -- it will continue to contribute from a margin perspective.
就軟體與Pro而言,我們持續透過擴展軟體服務與零件業務來推動獲利性成長,以提高我們的錢包份額。如Jim所提,我們確實聚焦於付費訂閱,而Pro已超過90萬。這代表年增超過20%,我們預期在今年剩餘期間仍會持續成長,並且——從利潤率貢獻的角度來看,它將持續帶來貢獻。
Obviously, software has a higher margin. So not as high as a percent of revenue, but definitely contributing from a margin perspective.
顯然,軟體的毛利率更高。因此雖然占營收的百分比沒有那麼高,但從利潤率的角度來看,確實有貢獻。
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And the net would be, as you said, primarily BlueCruise. And we could absolutely see this business, the integrated services being 0.5 point of margin for the company. It's very profitable, and we haven't really seen the margins come down.
而淨額方面,如你所說,主要會是 BlueCruise。我們完全可以看到這項業務、整合式服務,為公司帶來 0.5 個百分點的利潤率貢獻。它非常獲利,而且我們並沒有真正看到利潤率下滑。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
And I can just clarify the question you had on the paid subscription. So as I said in my prepared remarks, 1.6 million paid subscriptions. That does include retail plus Pro. The 900 was the Pro Intelligence, so the 700 remaining paid subscriptions is going to be retail. It's going to be other Pro services, and then it also includes BlueCruise.
我也可以釐清你對付費訂閱的問題。如我在事先準備的發言中所說,付費訂閱為 160 萬。這包含零售端以及 Pro。其中 90 萬是 Pro Intelligence,因此剩下的 70 萬付費訂閱會是零售端。也會包含其他 Pro 服務,並且也包含 BlueCruise。
Operator
Operator
Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.
Itay Michaeli,TD Cowen。
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Just kind of a quick question on just the updated guidance. I was hoping we could do a bit of a second half versus first half kind on bridge for Blue and Pro? It seems that the second half outlook for Pro is kind of nicely improved, but Blue seems a little bit lower ex IEEPA. Just kind of curious to get the puts and takes between the two trajectories for those segments.
想快速問一下更新後的指引。我希望我們能針對 Blue 和 Pro 做一個下半年相對上半年的橋接分析。看起來 Pro 的下半年展望有不錯的改善,但 Blue 在扣除 IEEPA 之後似乎略低一些。想了解一下這兩個事業部門走勢之間的利多與利空因素。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. So first just the enterprise level guidance. The increase is really simple. That's mix and pricing. So I just put that out on the table.
好的。先談整體企業層級的指引。上調的原因其實很簡單。就是產品組合與定價。我先把這點攤在檯面上。
And then when you're talking about the second half, you're talking about the EBIT bridge between second half and first half. So there, you would have had -- and then do you want to get into Blue and Pro specifically?
然後你提到下半年,是在談下半年相對上半年的 EBIT 橋接。那麼在那裡,你本來會有——然後你想更深入談 Blue 和 Pro 的細項嗎?
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
Itay Michaeli - Analyst
That would be great. Yeah.
那就太好了。是的。
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I mean really, what you're seeing is you're seeing increased volume, right? You've got the Super Duty and you have the F series that are going to be coming back in full force for the second half of the year you were going to have commodity increasing. We had $500 million of year-over-year improvement -- hit impact, rather, of commodities. Now when you get into the second half, you're going to have another $900 million. So the second half is going to have higher commodities that is hitting us.
好的。我的意思是,你看到的其實是銷量增加,對吧?Super Duty 以及 F 系列在今年下半年會全面回歸強勢,同時你也會看到大宗商品成本上升。我們有 5 億美元的年對年改善——更精確地說,是大宗商品帶來的衝擊。到了下半年,還會再增加 9 億美元。因此下半年會有更高的大宗商品成本在影響我們。
And also the second half has higher investment in UEV as well as Ford Energy. But you're really seeing in terms of the improvement is the value increase in terms of mix and pricing.
此外,下半年在 UEV 以及 Ford Energy 的投資也會更高。但就改善的部分而言,你真正看到的是產品組合與定價帶來的價值提升。
Alicia Davis - President - Ford Pro
Alicia Davis - President - Ford Pro
And I can just give a little more context from a Pro perspective. So we expect to make up our postponed Super Duty fleet orders in H2 that was primarily explained by the impact of Novelis. And so we expect to end the year with our full recovery to Ford Pro's 2025 revenue run rate and then Super Duty availability being aligned with demand.
我也可以從 Pro 的角度再補充一些背景。我們預期在下半年補回先前延後的 Super Duty 車隊訂單,這主要是由 Novelis 的影響所致。因此我們預期年底時,Ford Pro 的 2025 年營收運行率將完全恢復,且 Super Duty 的供應可用性會與需求對齊。
So if you look at the first half, from a Pro EBIT perspective, $3.4 billion. Second half, if you follow in our guidance, is $3.6 billion to $4.1 billion. And that's really driven largely by the additional capacity that we have in the Super Duty space.
如果你看上半年,從 Pro 的 EBIT 角度是 34 億美元。下半年,依照我們的指引,是 36 億到 41 億美元。這主要是由我們在 Super Duty 領域新增的產能所驅動。
Operator
Operator
Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.
Emmanuel Rosner,Wolfe Research。
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Great. So it's good to see all these operational and execution traction this year. Curious, do you expect further improvement in EBIT next year in 2027? And if so, would you be able to speak to us about some of the puts and takes and the drivers of further improvement?
很好。很高興看到今年在營運與執行面都有這些進展與成果。我想問的是,你們是否預期明年、也就是 2027 年 EBIT 會進一步改善?如果是的話,能否談談一些利多與利空因素,以及進一步改善的驅動因素?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sure, Emmanuel. Thank you for the question, and good to have you with us today. So I knew I wouldn't get out of this call without talking about 2027. But it's a little bit early to talk about it in detail, but let me give you some of the puts and takes as you suggested.
當然可以,Emmanuel。謝謝你的提問,也很高興你今天與我們同在。我就知道我不可能在不談 2027 的情況下結束這通電話。不過現在談細節還稍早,但我可以如你所建議,提供一些利多與利空因素。
First up is going to be the nonrepeat of the temporary aluminum sourcing costs that are associated with Novelis. I just gave more precision around that number today, which we now expect to be about $1.5 billion. So that starts you out.
首先,是與 Novelis 相關的臨時鋁材採購成本不會重複發生。我今天也把這個數字講得更精確,我們現在預期大約是 15 億美元。這會是你的起點。
As you look at the core, as you just pointed out, yes, you're absolutely seeing a better core business and one that has momentum and it's going to be more durable for the long term. So I do expect to continue to see reductions in costs, especially in material costs and warranty, but also structural costs, too. And as we just talked about, continued software and physical services growth.
再看核心業務,正如你剛指出的,是的,你確實看到更好的核心業務,而且它有動能,長期也會更具韌性。因此我預期成本會持續下降,特別是在材料成本與保固方面,但結構性成本也會下降。另外,如我們剛談到的,軟體與實體服務也會持續成長。
We do have launches that are going on in '27. So you're going to have launch costs associated with that especially related to our battery energy stationary storage business, Ford Energy, as well as the universal EV platform, both launching in 2027. And we're going to start investing in preparing for an all-new US truck lineup that we've started talking about a bit.
我們在 2027 年也會有新車型/新專案的上市。因此會有與上市相關的成本,特別是與我們的電池能源固定式儲能業務 Ford Energy,以及通用 EV 平台相關,兩者都會在 2027 年推出。我們也會開始投資,為我們已稍微提到的全新美國卡車產品線做準備。
On the headwinds, you're going to have the nonrepeat of the IEEPA tariff EBIT benefit. You'll remember that was $1.3 billion that we booked in Q1. And we'll have to see what happens with commodities. At this point, we are planning for four quarters of impact versus three quarters of impact in '26. And any improvement that might happen, we start to see a little bit of softening, that would be a tailwind. So in short, you see a company more efficient, more durable and fitter and better able to absorb headwinds.
在逆風方面,IEEPA 關稅帶來的 EBIT 利益不會重複出現。你會記得那是在第一季認列的 13 億美元。另外,大宗商品會怎麼走也還要觀察。目前我們的規劃是假設會有四個季度的影響,而不是 2026 年的三個季度。若後續出現改善、我們開始看到一些趨緩,那就會是順風。總之,你會看到公司更有效率、更具韌性、體質更健全,也更能吸收逆風。
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
Emmanuel Rosner - Equity Analyst
So that's a lot of puts and takes. But overall, would that net to a higher EBIT in your math? Or is that too early to say?
所以利多與利空因素很多。但整體而言,照你的計算,這會反映為更高的 EBIT 嗎?還是現在說還太早?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
It's too early to say at this point.
現在說還太早。
Operator
Operator
Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.
Colin Langan,Wells Fargo。
Colin Langan - Analyst
Colin Langan - Analyst
Just wanted to -- sorry, I have more of a modeling question to start off. But you mentioned $2 billion in raw material. Could you just say $500 million is already incurred. So is that the other $1.5 billion year over year is the headwind in the second half?
我想——抱歉,我先從一個比較偏模型的問題開始。你提到原物料 20 億美元。你能否說明其中 5 億美元已經發生。所以剩下的 15 億美元年對年就是下半年的逆風嗎?
And then you said the $1 billion in investment costs Novelis has impacted already in the first half. And any color on the value. It's -- is that -- how much is in the first half, how much good news is in the second half?
然後你說 Novelis 影響的 10 億美元投資成本在上半年已經反映了。另外想請你補充一下價值面的情況。也就是——其中多少在上半年、下半年會有多少好消息?
And then if I step back, your -- the second half EBIT rate is stepping down why not annualize that? What -- because especially with the Novelis improvement, I would have thought that would actually help you. So what is sort of unusual in the second half that we shouldn't be annualizing that or should be?
然後如果我退一步看,你們——下半年 EBIT 利潤率在下滑,為什麼不把它年化?什麼——因為尤其是隨著 Novelis 的改善,我原本以為那其實會幫到你們。所以,下半年有什麼比較不尋常的地方,讓我們不該把它年化?還是其實應該?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Okay. Well, let's take those in turn, Colin. So first off, with commodities. As we said, we're expecting a bit over $2 billion for the year. And I'm expecting about $1.5 billion of that to be in the second half. So $1.4 billion-ish , right? We said about $900 million additional to what we've already had.
好的。那我們逐一來看,Colin。首先,關於大宗商品。如我們所說,我們預期全年會略高於 20 億美元。而我預期其中約 15 億美元會落在下半年。所以大概是 14 億美元左右,對吧?我們說過,大約比我們目前已經承受的再多 9 億美元。
Then when you get to Novelis, at this point in time, we have had Novelis costs hit us at about $800 million. I also guided that I'm expecting the total cost to be about $1.5 billion. So the balance of that, $700 million, would be in the second half.
接著談到 Novelis,就目前這個時間點,我們已經受到 Novelis 成本影響約 8 億美元。我也指引過,我預期總成本約為 15 億美元。所以剩餘的 7 億美元會在下半年。
Your questions on -- then you had a question on the first half bridge versus the second half bridge. And you're right, very strong volume and mix. Is that what your question was, second half versus first half EBIT bridge?
你接著的問題是——然後你問了上半年橋接與下半年橋接的差異。你說得對,量與組合非常強勁。這就是你的問題嗎?下半年相較上半年的 EBIT 橋接?
Colin Langan - Analyst
Colin Langan - Analyst
Well, if I annualize the second half, it would imply a slowdown. So -- and particularly with Novelis actually recovering, I think you're supposed to get those pickup volumes back up. So why shouldn't we not be concerned by the annualized slowdown, particularly as Novelis is sort of back on track in the second half?
嗯,如果我把下半年年化,會意味著放緩。所以——而且特別是 Novelis 其實正在復原,我認為你們應該會把那些回升的出貨量拉回來。所以為什麼我們不該擔心年化後的放緩,尤其是 Novelis 在下半年算是回到正軌?
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Sherry House - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, that's right. So you've got -- as you said, you've got the strong volume and mix coming in from Novelis, but you had some of that in Q2 as well. And what you're also going to see in the second half is unfavorable commodity pricing that I just talked about, two quarters versus one. And you also are going to have accelerated investments in Ford Energy, in the universal EV platform and the Oakville launch.
對,沒錯。所以你會看到——如你所說,Novelis 帶來強勁的量與組合,但你在第二季也已經看到其中一部分。而你在下半年也會看到我剛提到的不利大宗商品定價,是兩個季度對上一個季度。另外,你也會看到在 Ford Energy、通用 EV 平台以及 Oakville 投產上線的加速投資。
So a lot is coming at us in the second half, but there's some strength in coming back with the volume is going to be what's really enabling us to be able to be very close to where we were the first half when you take out the non-repeat of the IEEPA onetime refund of $1.3 billion.
所以下半年有很多因素同時衝擊我們,但回升的部分強勁之處在於出貨量回來,這將真正讓我們在剔除 IEEPA 一次性 13 億美元退稅不再重複後,仍能非常接近上半年的水準。
Maria Ricciardone - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Maria Ricciardone - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Yeah. And just comment certainly we can follow up offline and just go through the detail of the model. So we can follow up after the call.
是的。另外補充一下,我們當然可以會後再私下跟進,把模型細節走一遍。所以我們可以在電話會議後再跟進。
I think we can take one last question. We're almost at the top of the hour.
我想我們可以再接最後一個問題。我們快到整點了。
Operator
Operator
Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.
德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。
Edison Yu - Analyst
Edison Yu - Analyst
Great. Just want to ask about Ford Defense Jim, you had mentioned on the last earnings call, you were kind of contemplating you're doing some work on the component side. I think just the other day, you confirmed to be working on a contract for the ISV.
很好。我想問一下 Ford Defense,Jim,你在上次財報電話會議提到,你們正在考慮在零組件端做一些工作。我想就在前幾天,你們也確認正在為 ISV 的合約進行作業。
How should we think about this effort going forward? And any sense on how big this could be in the next couple of years?
我們應該如何看待這項工作接下來的發展?以及未來幾年這可能會有多大規模,有沒有一些概念?
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
James Farley - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. Thanks for your question. Ford always calls -- always answer the call to duty. That's our principles as a company.
當然。謝謝你的提問。福特一向——一向會回應國家召喚、履行責任。這是我們作為一家公司的原則。
We did sign a contract with the US federal government to produce three prototypes they're considering for based on the Super Duty for military use. We're really excited to get into building those we already dominate in that market in the commercial world. We want to offer the US government the same advantages that our commercial customers get, and that includes great parts availability and everything else that comes along with being the leader.
我們確實與美國聯邦政府簽署了一份合約,生產三台原型車,他們正在評估是否以 Super Duty 為基礎用於軍事用途。我們對投入打造這些原型車感到非常興奮;在商用領域我們已經在那個市場占據主導地位。我們希望為美國政府提供與我們商用客戶相同的優勢,其中包括優異的零件供應可得性,以及作為領導者所帶來的其他一切。
It's a great opportunity for us, I think as a company, this particular opportunity in the transportation space. We are discussing -- continue to discuss additional defense-related projects with the US government, but we have nothing else to add at this point. We do believe we have a lot to offer, but we'll think through this as an adjacency. It has to be a strong business with really good returns and really good capital returns.
我認為這對我們來說是個很好的機會,作為一家公司,在運輸領域的這個特定機會。我們正在討論——並持續與美國政府討論其他與國防相關的專案,但目前沒有更多可以補充。我們確實相信我們能提供很多價值,但我們會把這當作鄰近領域來審慎評估。它必須是一門強健的生意,具備非常好的報酬與非常好的資本回報。
I have to say, when you look at the scale of the opportunity here and all the opportunities versus something like BESS, which has a very short payback, they're pretty different opportunities. They're very asymmetric. So as I said, we're very focused on these adjacencies that are very close to our core business like BESS. Defense will be another one. There's a few others that we haven't talked about yet, but they're not all the same, and they don't all have the same opportunity.
我必須說,當你看這裡的機會規模,以及所有機會相較於像 BESS 這種回收期很短的項目時,它們是相當不同的機會。它們非常不對稱。所以如我所說,我們非常聚焦在那些與核心業務非常接近的鄰近領域,例如 BESS。國防會是另一個。還有幾個我們尚未談到,但它們並不都一樣,也不都具有相同的機會。
And I would say, at this point, Ford Energy is a great opportunity, and we are really excited to get going with the US government on these prototypes. So stay tuned. Nothing else to add at this point.
我也想說,就目前而言,Ford Energy 是一個很好的機會,而我們也非常期待與美國政府一起推進這些原型車。所以敬請期待。目前沒有其他補充。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the Ford Motor Company second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
以上為福特汽車公司 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。