ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Etsy's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Deb Wasser, VP of Investor Relations. Today's prepared remarks have been prerecorded. Joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; and Rachel Glaser, CFO. Once we are finished with the presentation, we will take questions from our publishing sell-side analysts on video.

大家好，歡迎參加 Etsy 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。今天準備好的發言稿已預先錄製。今天加入我的是執行長 Josh Silverman；和財務長雷切爾·格拉澤 (Rachel Glaser)。演示結束後，我們將透過影片回答發布賣方分析師的問題。

Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance, our business and our operating results as noted in the slide deck posted on our website for your reference. Our actual results may differ materially. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, some of which are described in today's earnings release and our most recent Form 10-K and which will be updated in future periodic reports that we file with the SEC.

請記住，我們今天的言論包括與我們的財務指導、業務和經營業績相關的前瞻性陳述，如我們網站上發布的幻燈片所示，供您參考。我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，其中一些在今天的收益報告和我們最新的 10-K 表格中進行了描述，並將在我們向 SEC 提交的未來定期報告中進行更新。

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them. Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to GAAP financial measures in today's earnings press release or slide deck posted on our IR website, along with the replay of this call.

我們在本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務。此外，在電話會議期間，我們將介紹GAAP 和非GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與今天的收益新聞稿或我們的IR 網站上發布的幻燈片中的GAAP 財務指標進行了協調，並重播了本次電話會議。

With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬希。

Thanks, Deb, and good afternoon, everyone. Etsy's consolidated results, while within our guidance range, were not where we wanted them to be. GMS was just shy of $3 billion, down 3.7% from last year. Revenue grew a bit up 0.8% to $646 million, and we delivered $168 million in adjusted EBITDA, a very healthy adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 26%.

謝謝，黛布，大家下午好。 Etsy 的綜合業績雖然在我們的指導範圍內，但並未達到我們的預期。 GMS 的銷售額略低於 30 億美元，比去年下降 3.7%。營收成長了 0.8%，達到 6.46 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.68 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率非常健康，約 26%。

Etsy marketplace GMS was down 5.3% year-over-year, a bit of a disappointment as March GMS trends did not improve as we had anticipated. That said, I'm encouraged that the Etsy marketplace's record-high level of 92 million active buyers held up very well in another challenging quarter for our type of goods, signaling to us that while buyers shopped a bit less with us than they did in the prior year period, we have some comfort that these trends are cyclical rather than structural.

Etsy 市場 GMS 比去年同期下降 5.3%，這有點令人失望，因為 3 月的 GMS 趨勢並沒有像我們預期的那樣改善。儘管如此，令我感到鼓舞的是，Etsy 市場的活躍買家數量創歷史新高，達到9200 萬，在我們的商品類型又一個充滿挑戰的季度中保持得很好，這向我們表明，雖然買家在我們這裡購物的次數比上年要少一些。

To that point, while U.S. unemployment is low and inflation data is mixed, consumer sentiment remains depressed, which some speculate can be attributed to the very high cost of money. Consumer wallets remain squeezed so there's often a little left after paying for food, gas, rent and child care. And there's significant data indicating that the largest e-commerce platforms have primarily been able to grow by selling everyday essentials at very low prices.

就這一點而言，雖然美國失業率較低且通膨數據好壞參半，但消費者情緒仍然低迷，有些人推測這可能歸因於資金成本非常高。消費者的錢包仍然緊縮，因此在支付食品、汽油、租金和兒童保育費後往往還剩下一些錢。有重要數據表明，最大的電子商務平台主要是透過以極低的價格銷售日常必需品來實現成長的。

Macroeconomic conditions also continue to be quite challenging in our other top markets, the U.K. and Germany. These headwinds are real, do not appear to be abating and are impacting our sales. Stiff headwinds mean that our product and marketing initiatives have to work even harder to drive growth. In the first quarter, we shipped meaningful improvements to the customer experience, positively impacting GMS. Just not enough to offset the headwinds to our baseline business performance.

我們的其他頂級市場（英國和德國）的宏觀經濟狀況也仍然充滿挑戰。這些不利因素是真實存在的，而且似乎並未減弱，並且正在影響我們的銷售。嚴峻的阻力意味著我們的產品和行銷計劃必須更加努力才能推動成長。第一季度，我們對客戶體驗進行了有意義的改進，對 GMS 產生了積極影響。只是不足以抵銷我們基準業務績效的不利因素。

I'm particularly pleased that our leaner and more nimble Etsy marketplace product development organization was off to the races. We had double-digit growth in the number of experiments per product engineer that utilize machine learning as well as in our annualized gross GMS from experiments. And the total number of experiments run per engineer increased 20%.

我特別高興的是，我們更精簡、更靈活的 Etsy 市場產品開發組織已經開始投入使用。我們的每個產品工程師利用機器學習進行的實驗數量以及實驗的年化總 GMS 都實現了兩位數的成長。每個工程師運行的實驗總數增加了 20%。

Some of this progress can be directly tied to work we told you about last year to democratize ML. These metrics give me confidence that the bold moves to improve customer experience can build over time and play a key role to get Etsy growing again. Our marketing team also kicked into high gear, in-sourcing Etsy paid search efforts and scaling mid-funnel channels, expanding our product feed testing across PLA and paid social to improve the quality of inventory we're showing users and developing engaging and creative full-funnel activations across channels.

其中一些進展可以直接與我們去年告訴您的機器學習民主化工作直接相關。這些指標讓我相信，改善客戶體驗的大膽舉措可以隨著時間的推移而建立，並為 Etsy 的再次成長發揮關鍵作用。我們的行銷團隊也全力以赴，內包Etsy 付費搜尋工作並擴展中間漏斗管道，擴大我們在PLA 和付費社交媒體上的產品提要測試，以提高我們向用戶展示的庫存質量，並開發有吸引力且富有創意的全面內容。

Our key focus for 2024 is to continue to build consideration for Etsy, to help buyers think of us more often by making it easier to find the best stuff, driving association that there are great deals on Etsy and making shopping on Etsy more convenient. We believe that changing buyer perceptions is eminently achievable, making us more of a go-to shopping destination, and we've made excellent progress kicking off bold initiatives to do just that.

我們2024 年的重點是繼續提高Etsy 的關注度，透過讓買家更容易找到最好的東西來幫助買家更頻繁地想到我們，推動Etsy 上有超值優惠的聯想，並使Etsy 上的購物變得更加方便。我們相信，改變買家的看法是完全可以實現的，使我們成為更多的購物目的地，而且我們已經取得了巨大的進展，為此採取了大膽的舉措。

Thanks to the great work our product team did on the initial launch of Gift Mode, combined with creative and engaging marketing campaigns to raise awareness of Etsy as a key gifting destination, we're off to a good start evolving Etsy from being one of the places you can go to find a gift toward being the indispensable partner for all of your gifting missions. Gift Mode is, by far, the most unique and varied subset of inventory we've ever curated and shown on Etsy. Organized around a set of gift ideas and not just items in order to help you feel like you're shopping for a person and not a thing.

感謝我們的產品團隊在首次推出禮品模式時所做的出色工作，再加上富有創意且引人入勝的營銷活動，以提高Etsy 作為主要禮品目的地的知名度，我們已經有了一個良好的開端，將Etsy從成為最受青睞的禮品之一發展為一個良好的開端。到目前為止，禮物模式是我們在 Etsy 上策劃和展示的最獨特、最多樣化的庫存子集。圍繞一系列禮物創意而不僅僅是物品進行組織，以幫助您感覺您正在為一個人而不是一件東西購物。

We're pleased to report that Etsy's total site-wide gifting GMS in the first quarter grew in the low single digits year-over-year, significantly outpacing our site-wide performance and data we're tracking for select U.S. online gifting-focused peers who all saw year-over-year declines. We're seeing quarter-over-quarter increases in U.S. consumer perceptions that Etsy is making it easy to find great gifts, a key Gift Mode value prop.

我們很高興地報告，Etsy 第一季度的網站範圍內禮品 GMS 總額同比以較低的個位數增長，顯著超過了我們網站範圍內的表現以及我們針對特定美國在線禮品市場跟踪的數據。均出現年減。我們發現，美國消費者對 Etsy 讓尋找精美禮物變得容易這一點的看法逐季度呈上升趨勢，這是禮品模式的一個關鍵價值支柱。

And importantly, our research tells you that Gift Mode expands buyer understanding of the breadth of our offering, very helpful as, of course, we're about so much more than just gifts. We utilized full final marketing strategies to tell the world there was something new at Etsy, such as securing the most visible advertising position in football's big game, making an estimated 100 million plus impressions.

重要的是，我們的研究告訴您，禮品模式擴大了買家對我們產品廣度的了解，這非常有幫助，因為當然，我們提供的不僅僅是禮物。我們利用完整的最終行銷策略來告訴世界 Etsy 有一些新的東西，例如在足球這項大型比賽中獲得最明顯的廣告位置，估計產生了超過 1 億次的印象。

Gift Mode's launch generated over 4x as many news articles as any of our prior consumer PR campaigns, and we had an over 200% increase in conversation volume around Etsy and gifting in our social channels compared to this time last year. As we've said before, this was a kick off, not the mic drop, and we're in the early days of driving brand awareness to make Etsy more top of mind for gifts.

禮品模式的推出產生的新聞文章數量是我們之前任何消費者公關活動的 4 倍多，而且與去年同期相比，我們社交管道中有關 Etsy 和禮品的對話量增加了 200% 以上。正如我們之前所說，這是一個開始，而不是麥克風掉落，我們正處於提高品牌知名度以使 Etsy 成為禮品首選的早期階段。

We've got a robust roadmap for Gift Mode to improve the experience and get more buyers into the funnel, from recently optimized gift teasers to additional Gifty profiles, reminders, video and audio message capabilities, and new occasion pages and much more.

我們為禮物模式製定了強大的路線圖，以改善體驗並讓更多買家進入渠道，從最近優化的禮物預告片到額外的Gifty 個人資料、提醒、視頻和音頻消息功能以及新的場合頁面等等。

Turning to our quality-focused initiatives, which we believe represent a tremendous unlock to drive buyer consideration. We stand for keeping commerce human and believe that doing this in a way that no one else can is our most important competitive advantage. We're focused on creating cleaner shopping aisles for buyers. All too often, when you visit Etsy, your search is cluttered, showing you too many items that feel very similar, increasing cognitive load while failing to highlight the incredible diversity that is a towering strength for Etsy.

談到我們以品質為中心的舉措，我們相信這代表著推動買家考慮的巨大釋放。我們主張保持商業人性化，並相信以其他人無法做到的方式做到這一點是我們最重要的競爭優勢。我們致力於為買家創造更乾淨的購物通道。很多時候，當您造訪Etsy 時，您的搜尋很混亂，向您展示了太多感覺非常相似的項目，增加了認知負擔，同時未能突出Etsy 令人難以置信的多樣性，而這正是Etsy 的巨大優勢。

In addition, you might not be clear as to why each of these items belong on Etsy. For example, which are handmade by the seller themselves, which are designed by the seller, but produced in close collaboration with a production partner and/or which are personalized and customized by the seller. While there's demand on Etsy for each of these categories of items, it depends a great deal on the buyer's shopping mission. With the tremendous growth in sellers and inventory we've experienced over the last few years, this challenge has gotten all the more real and complex.

此外，您可能不清楚為什麼這些項目都屬於 Etsy。例如，由賣家自己手工製作、由賣家設計但與生產合作夥伴密切合作生產和/或由賣家個人化和客製化。雖然 Etsy 對這些類別的商品都有需求，但這在很大程度上取決於買家的購物使命。隨著過去幾年我們經歷的賣家和庫存的巨大增長，這項挑戰變得更加真實和複雜。

The great news about this challenge is that large language models and gen AI techniques provide so much opportunity for Etsy to better understand both the shopping mission you're on as well as our inventory. And show you the best stuff in ways we couldn't have imagined just a few years ago. This year, we're going on the offense in an even bigger way to make sure Etsy lives up to our promise from an inventory and quality perspective along these 4 key focus areas: first, we're doing more than ever to suppress and remove listings that violate our policies. And advances in ML have been particularly powerful as enablers here.

關於這項挑戰的好消息是，大型語言模型和生成人工智慧技術為 Etsy 提供了許多機會，可以更好地了解您正在進行的購物任務以及我們的庫存。並以幾年前我們無法想像的方式向您展示最好的東西。今年，我們將以更大規模的方式發動進攻，以確保 Etsy 從庫存和品質的角度圍繞這 4 個關鍵重點領域履行我們的承諾：首先，我們比以往任何時候都更加努力地壓制和刪除違反我們政策的列表。機器學習的進步作為推動因素尤其強大。

In the first quarter, we removed about 115% more listings for violating our handmade policy than in the prior year. And you've heard us talk about the violative view rate. Buyer views of listings that violate our handmade policy are now just a few percentage points of total listing views. Our improved enforcement capabilities have resulted in the cumulative removal of millions of listings and tens of thousands of active sellers.

第一季度，我們因違反手工製作政策而刪除的商品數量比去年增加了約 115%。您已經聽過我們談論違規觀看率。現在，買家對違反我們手工製作政策的商品的看法僅佔總商品瀏覽量的幾個百分點。我們改進的執法能力已導致累積刪除數百萬個清單和數萬個活躍賣家。

While there's a strong replacement factor to fill in for any removal of seller listings on our marketplace, we estimate that the heightened level of takedowns we've initiated over the last 6 to 9 months has represented about a 50 basis point headwind to our annualized GMS. We see this as a very important investment in our future with significant progress made, but still more to do to keep making Etsy different and special and even more Etsy.

雖然我們市場上任何刪除賣家清單的行為都需要一個強有力的替代因素來填補，但我們估計，我們在過去6 到9 個月內發起的更高水平的刪除對我們的年化GMS 造成了約50 個基點的阻力。我們認為這是對我們未來的一項非常重要的投資，我們已經取得了重大進展，但要讓Etsy 變得與眾不同、與眾不同，甚至變得更加Etsy，我們還需要做更多的工作。

Second, we need to elevate listings that represent the best of Etsy. Over the past several years, we've dramatically improved our search relevance, ensuring that buyers can more easily find what they're looking for. We believe there's a huge opportunity to build on this work by factoring attributes such as the quality of the listing and photography, shipping price and reliability and customer reviews into our organic search algorithms. All of this will help buyers find something that's not only relevant but will also lead to a purchase experience they're likely to love. We also want to empower sellers through transparency and education so they know exactly what actions they can take to improve their visibility creating opportunity for more sales on Etsy.

其次，我們需要提升代表 Etsy 最佳內容的清單。在過去的幾年裡，我們大大提高了搜尋相關性，確保買家可以更輕鬆地找到他們想要的東西。我們相信，透過將清單和攝影的品質、運輸價格和可靠性以及客戶評論等屬性納入我們的有機搜尋演算法，可以在這項工作的基礎上進一步發展。所有這些都將幫助買家找到不僅相關的東西，而且還會帶來他們可能喜歡的購買體驗。我們還希望透過透明度和教育為賣家提供支持，以便他們確切地知道可以採取哪些行動來提高自己的知名度，從而為 Etsy 上的更多銷售創造機會。

And the third and fourth items on this slide, curation and organization, work together to do an even better job showing the newest and best merchandise available from sellers on Etsy, whether through home and landing page experiences, category shopping, initiatives like Gift Mode, our Deals tab and more. While we've made incredible strides in directed search on Etsy, we have a very significant opportunity to focus more on window shopping. Creating engaging buyer experiences to spark your imagination, capture impulse buys, get to know your tastes and preferences better and expand your understanding of the breadth of products available on Etsy.

這張投影片上的第三項和第四項，即策劃和組織，共同努力，可以更好地展示Etsy 上賣家提供的最新和最好的商品，無論是透過主頁和登陸頁面體驗、類別購物、禮品模式等舉措，我們的「優惠」選項卡等等。雖然我們在 Etsy 的定向搜尋方面取得了令人難以置信的進步，但我們有一個非常重要的機會更專注於櫥窗購物。創造引人入勝的買家體驗，激發您的想像力，捕捉衝動購買，更好地了解您的品味和偏好，並擴大您對 Etsy 上提供的產品範圍的了解。

This is an area where we intend to fight much harder, making Etsy more fun, engaging, inspiring, surprising. We want you to come to Etsy when you have 5 minutes to spare just to be entertained, so you'll come back to us again and again. And I'm confident that with our sellers' incredible merchandise, our large buyer base, brand strength and our team's creativity, we can make this happen. It's imperative that we continue to widen the gap between Etsy's offering and that of the competition so that our site always feels inherently different, fresh, special and even more human.

我們打算在這個領域更加努力，讓 Etsy 變得更有趣、更有吸引力、更鼓舞人心、更令人驚訝。我們希望您在有 5 分鐘空閒時間時來 Etsy 享受娛樂，這樣您就會一次又一次地回到我們身邊。我相信，憑藉我們賣家令人難以置信的商品、龐大的買家基礎、品牌實力和團隊的創造力，我們可以實現這一目標。我們必須繼續擴大 Etsy 的產品與競爭對手之間的差距，以便我們的網站始終給人一種本質上不同、新鮮、特別、甚至更加人性化的感覺。

Better organizing our diverse listings into cleaner aisles will declutter our site enable buyers to find something they love with less friction and keep them coming back. We believe that supporting small business and shopping unique goods are our strongest levers to get buyers to think of Etsy more often. We're planning to be quite loud with this message, reestablishing our point of differentiation in clear and compelling ways. We're also making great progress in our other key focus areas to drive by our consideration, highlighting great value and reliability.

更好地將我們多樣化的清單整理成更乾淨的過道，將使我們的網站變得更加整潔，使買家能夠以更少的摩擦找到他們喜歡的東西，並讓他們成為回頭客。我們相信，支持小型企業和購買獨特的商品是讓買家更頻繁地想到 Etsy 的最有力手段。我們計劃大聲傳達這一訊息，以清晰且令人信服的方式重新確立我們的差異化點。在我們的考慮的推動下，我們也在其他關鍵重點領域取得了巨大進展，突顯了巨大的價值和可靠性。

In keeping with the times, during the first quarter, we promoted special and hot deals from our sellers with discount-related signals continuing to drive significant GMS impact. We also introduced new functionality for sellers, such as a growth page with customer insights they can use to inform actions to grow their business such as a new earnings calculator to assist sellers in understanding the various inputs that go into their profitability.

與時俱進，在第一季度，我們透過與折扣相關的訊號來促銷賣家的特價和熱門交易，繼續推動顯著的 GMS 影響。我們還為賣家推出了新功能，例如包含客戶洞察的成長頁面，他們可以使用該頁面來指導發展業務的行動，例如新的收入計算器，以幫助賣家了解影響其盈利能力的各種投入。

In terms of shipping timeliness, I'm pleased to report that our initiative to tighten estimated delivery dates, which we believe are an important effort to improve buyer perceptions of our reliability as well as to grow GMS, are already paying off. Our fulfillment team recently launched a new machine learning model, which reduced our estimate of USPS transit times by greater than 1 day, resulting in a nearly tripling of the percentage of eligible orders for which Etsy is now able to show an estimated delivery date of 7 days or less.

在運輸及時性方面，我很高興地報告，我們縮短預計交貨日期的舉措已經取得了成效，我們相信這是提高買家對我們可靠性的看法以及發展 GMS 的重要努力。我們的履行團隊最近推出了一種新的機器學習模型，該模型將我們對USPS 運送時間的估計縮短了1 天以上，從而使Etsy 現在能夠顯示預計送達日期為7 的符合條件訂單的百分比幾乎增加了兩倍天或更短。

Driving consideration is all about inflecting the curve, to capture more new buyers and to help browsers convert to sales, to engage our existing active buyers, half of whom still only shop on Etsy one time per year. and to retain and reactivate more buyers every year, working to get another bite at the apple with our more than 100 million lapsed buyers.

推動考慮的關鍵在於改變曲線，吸引更多新買家並幫助瀏覽器轉化為銷售，吸引我們現有的活躍買家，其中一半的買家每年仍然只在 Etsy 上購物一次。每年留住並重新啟動更多的買家，努力從我們超過 1 億的流失買家中獲得新的利益。

Within this framework sits a very compelling opportunity to further expand usage of our Buy on Etsy app. Since purchasing days per app user are 75% higher than our non-app users, and only 45% of active buyers use our app, we've set some ambitious goals for 2024 to increase user penetration of our app and drive incremental downloads, including strategies to improve how and where we show the app download prompts, increasing the reach and effectiveness of our push messages and improving the experience for first-time app users.

在這個框架內，存在著一個非常引人注目的機會，可以進一步擴大我們的 Buy on Etsy 應用程式的使用。由於每個應用程式用戶的購買天數比我們的非應用程式用戶高75%，並且只有45% 的活躍買家使用我們的應用程序，因此我們為2024 年設定了一些雄心勃勃的目標，以提高我們應用程式的用戶滲透率並推動增量下載，包括改進我們顯示應用程式下載提示的方式和位置的策略，增加推播訊息的覆蓋範圍和有效性，並改善首次使用應用程式的用戶的體驗。

We have massive pools of buyers to fuel these strategies and are excited about the road ahead. Owning our own destiny, particularly as some top search engines have lost a bit of their potency to drive traffic for e-commerce players, is an important priority for us.

我們擁有大量買家來推動這些策略，並對未來的道路感到興奮。掌握我們自己的命運，特別是在一些頂級搜尋引擎已經失去了為電子商務參與者帶來流量的一些能力的情況下，對我們來說是一個重要的優先事項。

In closing, while so far, 2024 is still proving to be a cyclically challenging period for us. Rest assured that we are clear-eyed about what we need to accomplish to set Etsy back on a growth path. We're confident we're working on areas that will positively impact Etsy in the months and years ahead. We're leaning in more than ever to what makes Etsy, Etsy. We are not deterred. And as I've said to some of you, proving doubters wrong is frankly quite energizing for us.

最後，到目前為止，2024 年對我們來說仍然是一個充滿週期性挑戰的時期。請放心，我們清楚知道需要完成哪些任務才能讓 Etsy 重回成長道路。我們相信，我們正在致力於在未來幾個月乃至數年對 Etsy 產生積極影響的領域。我們比以往任何時候都更關注 Etsy 的本質。我們並沒有被嚇倒。正如我對你們中的一些人所說的那樣，坦白說，證明懷疑者是錯的，這對我們來說非常有活力。

Even as I celebrate my seventh Etsy-versary this month, I remain encouraged that we still have so many opportunities to grow.

即使這個月我慶祝了我的第七個 Etsy 生日，我仍然感到鼓舞，因為我們仍然有很多成長的機會。

I'll now turn the call over to Rachel.

我現在將電話轉給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh, and thank you, everyone, for joining our first quarter call. My commentary today will cover consolidated results, key drivers of performance and Etsy marketplace stand-alone results where appropriate. As a reminder, we divested Elo7 on August 10, 2023. So please take that into consideration when you compare year-over-year consolidated results.

謝謝喬什，也謝謝大家參加我們的第一季電話會議。我今天的評論將涵蓋綜合業績、業績的關鍵驅動因素以及 Etsy 市場的獨立業績（如適用）。謹此提醒，我們於 2023 年 8 月 10 日剝離了 Elo7。

Etsy's first quarter 2024 consolidated GMS was $3 billion, down approximately 3.7% year-over-year with 40 basis points FX benefit. Revenue increased a bit year-over-year to $646 million, and our adjusted EBITDA of $168 million was in line with expectations and roughly similar to last year.

Etsy 2024 年第一季合併 GMS 為 30 億美元，年減約 3.7%，外匯收益增加 40 個基點。營收較去年同期略有成長，達到 6.46 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.68 億美元，符合預期，與去年大致相似。

Note that Elo7's divestiture resulted in small headwinds to GMS and revenue growth in the quarter, but was modestly accretive to our consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin. While strong external headwinds pressured Etsy marketplace's GMS trends throughout the first quarter, solid year-over-year GMS growth at our subsidiaries provided a tailwind to consolidated results. Our $2.6 billion in Etsy marketplace GMS represented a 5.3% decline on a year-over-year basis. I'll cover this in more detail later.

請注意，Elo7 的剝離對 GMS 和本季營收成長造成了小幅阻力，但對我們的綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率略有增加。儘管強大的外部阻力在整個第一季給 Etsy 市場的 GMS 趨勢帶來壓力，但我們子公司的 GMS 同比穩健成長為合併表現提供了推動力。我們在 Etsy 市場 GMS 的銷售額為 26 億美元，年減 5.3%。稍後我將更詳細地介紹這一點。

Within our consolidated year-over-year revenue growth of 0.8%, consolidated marketplace revenue was flat, with growth in payments and offsite ads revenue, offset by declines in transaction fees given lower GMS this quarter. We had a nominal benefit related to our new seller setup fee experiment launched in late February, part of our efforts to keep Etsy safe and secure. This fee is meant to introduce healthy friction into our process, facilitating enhanced security checks and continued support for new shops. Tests indicated it resulted in an expected decrease in new shop openings and a significant decline in fraud attempts. Based on this successful outcome, we rolled it out in all eligible countries in early April.

在我們的綜合收入年增 0.8% 的情況下，綜合市場收入持平，支付和站外廣告收入增長，但被本季度 GMS 較低導致的交易費用下降所抵消。我們獲得了與 2 月底推出的新賣家設定費實驗相關的名義收益，這是我們確保 Etsy 安全的努力的一部分。這筆費用旨在為我們的流程引入健康的摩擦，促進加強安全檢查並持續支持新商店。測試表明，這將導致新店開張數量預期減少，詐欺企圖顯著減少。基於這項成功成果，我們於 4 月初在所有符合資格的國家推出了這項服務。

Consolidated services revenue increased 3% with our ad platforms being the primary contributor. During the quarter, we continued to enhance Etsy Ads, including refinements to our data retrieval engines that improved conversion predictions and the pace of spend for sellers' ad budgets throughout the day. First quarter 2024 consolidated take rate was 21.6%, slightly ahead of guidance and above the 20.7% reported in the first quarter of last year.

綜合服務收入成長了 3%，其中我們的廣告平台是主要貢獻者。本季度，我們持續增強 Etsy Ads，包括改善我們的資料檢索引擎，以改善轉換預測和賣家全天廣告預算的支出速度。 2024 年第一季綜合利用率為 21.6%，略高於指引值，高於去年第一季報告的 20.7%。

Our first quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 26%, in line with our guidance, down 60 basis points from last year. We gained leverage year-over-year on employee costs and variable cost of revenue, offset by higher marketing expense, primarily from our big game advertising. Our subsidiaries represented an approximately 300 basis point headwind to our consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin. We're encouraged that our efforts to effectively manage our cost structure and look for efficiencies are helping us to make important investments while also delivering very healthy profitability through this challenging environment for our discretionary goods.

我們第一季綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 26%，與我們的指導方針一致，比去年下降 60 個基點。我們在員工成本和可變收入成本方面逐年獲得了槓桿作用，但被較高的行銷費用（主要來自我們的大型遊戲廣告）所抵消。我們的子公司對我們的綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率構成約 300 個基點的不利影響。令我們感到鼓舞的是，我們有效管理成本結構和提高效率的努力正在幫助我們進行重要投資，同時還透過我們的非必需品的這一充滿挑戰的環境提供非常健康的盈利能力。

During the first quarter, consolidated product development spend decreased 5% year-over-year to $110 million, primarily as a result of our December Etsy marketplace restructuring. So we are, in fact, gaining leverage on this P&L line, as you can see from this slide. Our first quarter consolidated head count was approximately 2,400, down 15% on a year-over-year basis.

第一季度，綜合產品開發支出年減 5% 至 1.1 億美元，這主要是由於我們 12 月的 Etsy 市場重組所致。因此，事實上，正如您從這張投影片中看到的那樣，我們正在這條損益線上獲得槓桿作用。我們第一季的合併員工人數約為 2,400 人，年減 15%。

For the Etsy marketplace, head count was down approximately 9% year-over-year to a bit under 1,800, with revenue per head count increasing about 2% year-over-year. We continue to make deliberate and judicious decisions related to our hiring, focused on selective skills and the very best talent for our significant opportunity ahead.

對於 Etsy 市場，員工人數較去年同期下降約 9%，略低於 1,800 人，人均收入年增約 2%。我們繼續在招募方面做出深思熟慮和明智的決定，並專注於選擇性技能和最優秀的人才，為我們未來的重大機會提供支援。

First quarter consolidated marketing spend increased 12% year-over-year to $192 million, largely driven by a 59% year-over-year increase in our consolidated brand spend, primarily related to our above-the-line big game campaign in support of the Etsy marketplace's launch of Gift Mode. Our consolidated performance marketing spend increased 2% year-over-year.

第一季綜合行銷支出年增 12%，達到 1.92 億美元，這主要是由於我們的綜合品牌支出年增 59%，這主要與我們為支持Etsy 市場推出禮物模式。我們的綜合績效行銷支出年增 2%。

Performance marketing was a headwind for January as we conducted core channel optimizations and it then became a tailwind in both February and March as we expanded Etsy marketplace product feeds testing across PLA and paid social. And scaled up push notifications and mid-funnel investments to diversify our marketing portfolio mix. Etsy marketplace paid GMS was about 20% of our total, similar to our normal trend line.

效果行銷在 1 月是逆風，因為我們進行了核心通路優化，而在 2 月和 3 月，效果行銷又成為順風，因為我們在 PLA 和付費社交領域擴展了 Etsy 市場產品源測試。並擴大了推播通知和管道中部投資，以使我們的行銷組合多樣化。 Etsy 市場付費 GMS 約佔我們總數的 20%，與我們的正常趨勢線類似。

Moving to Etsy marketplace GMS and buyer metrics. Etsy marketplace GMS declined 5.3% in the first quarter, with the negative trends we experienced in January and February continuing through March. While we saw positive GMS impact from our product and marketing initiatives in the quarter, and we were really pleased with the performance here, our baseline GMS levels continued to be pressured by macro factors specifically related to consumer discretionary product spending that made it harder than we expected to bend the curve, which was disappointing. More on that in a moment. Further, we saw greater-than-expected volatility around the timing shift of Easter from April to March. Well, this was a headwind to March. It has also provided a helpful tailwind for April, which I'll cover in our Q2 guidance.

轉向 Etsy 市場 GMS 和買家指標。 Etsy 市場 GMS 第一季下降了 5.3%，我們在 1 月和 2 月經歷的負面趨勢一直持續到 3 月。雖然我們看到本季度我們的產品和行銷舉措產生了積極的GMS 影響，並且我們對這裡的表現非常滿意，但我們的基準GMS 水平繼續受到與非必需消費品支出相關的宏觀因素的壓力，這使得我們的處境比我們更困難。稍後會詳細介紹。此外，我們還發現復活節時間從 4 月轉移到 3 月的波動性超出預期。嗯，這對三月來說是一個逆風。它還為四月份提供了有益的推動力，我將在第二季的指導中介紹這一點。

Diving in a bit further on the consumer discretionary headwinds we are seeing, particularly in our categories, these 2 charts are probably the most informative to help us explain the overall GMS pressure we've been experiencing. On the left, you can see the steady decline in U.S. consumer discretionary spending as a percentage of total personal consumption expenditures, including through the first quarter of 2024, which supports our belief that much of our deceleration in the quarter was in line with the larger trend for discretionary goods. And on the right, you can see that Consumer Edge pure-play peer sales data for our top 6 categories in Q1, and with low to mid-single-digit declines in every category except for craft supplies, which had a slightly positive result. These headwinds were stiffer than we had been anticipating when we set guidance for the quarter.

進一步深入研究我們所看到的消費者非必需品逆風，特別是在我們的類別中，這兩張圖表可能是最能幫助我們解釋我們所經歷的整體 GMS 壓力的資訊。在左側，您可以看到美國消費者可自由支配支出佔個人消費支出總額的百分比穩定下降，包括到2024 年第一季度，這支持了我們的信念，即本季度的減速在很大程度上與更大的支出一致。在右側，您可以看到 Consumer Edge 第一季前 6 個類別的純同行銷售數據，除工藝品用品外，每個類別均出現低至中個位數的下降，工藝品用品的結果略為樂觀。這些不利因素比我們在製定本季指引時預期的要嚴重。

Here, you can see that Etsy marketplace GMS was down across the board in our top categories. When we map our performance to the Consumer Edge data on the prior slide, we believe that we performed similarly, if not better, than peers in 4 of our 6 categories: home and living, apparel, paper and party supplies and toys and games, and we underperformed a bit in jewelry and craft supplies. But overall, we see this as a tale of broad weakness in the types of merchandise we sell. We'd encourage you to remember that this comparison is a bit of apples to oranges in that Etsy sellers generally have not taken up prices in keeping with inflation as peer retailers do.

在這裡，您可以看到 Etsy 市場 GMS 在我們的頂級類別中全面下滑。當我們將我們的表現映射到上一張投影片上的消費者邊緣數據時，我們相信我們在6 個類別中的4 個類別中的表現與同行相似，甚至更好：家居和生活、服裝、紙張和派對用品以及玩具和遊戲，我們在珠寶和工藝用品方面表現稍差。但總的來說，我們認為這是我們銷售的商品類型普遍疲軟的故事。我們鼓勵您記住，這種比較有點像蘋果與橘子的比較，因為 Etsy 賣家通常不會像同行零售商那樣根據通貨膨脹調整價格。

Consistent with the macro pressure we experienced in the U.S., Etsy marketplace GMS, excluding U.S. domestic, declined 1.5% from the prior year with particular weakness on a year-over-year basis in our top markets of the U.K. and Germany. We did see growth in Switzerland, Austria and the Netherlands. While our U.S. domestic GMS continues to decline on a year-over-year basis, we are seeing healthier performance in our U.S. import trade route with high percentage share of imports from sellers in the U.K., Canada and Turkey.

與我們在美國經歷的宏觀壓力一致，Etsy 市場 GMS（不包括美國國內）比上一年下降了 1.5%，尤其是英國和德國等頂級市場的同比表現尤其疲軟。我們確實看到了瑞士、奧地利和荷蘭的成長。雖然我們的美國國內 GMS 繼續同比下降，但我們看到美國進口貿易路線的表現更為健康，來自英國、加拿大和土耳其賣家的進口比例很高。

It's quite encouraging that Etsy marketplace active buyers grew 2% on a year-over-year basis, roughly flat to the fourth quarter and about 92 million active buyers. U.S. active buyers have grown a bit now on a year-over-year basis for 3 consecutive quarters, and we continue to see healthy additions outside the U.S. We reactivated over 6 million lapse buyers, up 6% year-over-year. And we added nearly 6 million new buyers in the first quarter, down year-over-year, but still a very healthy proof point in this type of macro climate, well above pre-pandemic levels.

令人鼓舞的是，Etsy 市場活躍買家年增 2%，與第四季基本持平，活躍買家數量約為 9,200 萬。美國活躍買家現已連續 3 個季度同比略有增長，我們繼續看到美國以外地區的健康成長。第一季我們增加了近 600 萬新買家，年減，但在這種宏觀氣候下仍然是一個非常健康的證據，遠高於大流行前的水平。

Habitual buyers decreased by 3% year-over-year. We continue to observe a trend where some habitual buyers purchased slightly fewer items or spent slightly less, no longer meeting our habitual buyer definition and moving to the repeat buyer category. We also retained slightly more habitual buyers in the first quarter versus our retention of habituals in the fourth quarter and the prior year period. Lastly, GMS per active buyer was down 3.5% in the quarter. Additional Etsy marketplace metrics and trend charts can be found in the appendix of this presentation, which is posted on our IR website.

習慣性買家較去年同期下降3%。我們繼續觀察到一種趨勢，即一些習慣性買家購買的商品略少或花費略少，不再符合我們習慣性買家的定義並轉向回頭客類別。與第四季和去年同期相比，我們在第一季保留了更多的習慣買家。最後，本季每個活躍買家的 GMS 下降了 3.5%。其他 Etsy 市場指標和趨勢圖表可在本簡報的附錄中找到，該簡報發佈在我們的 IR 網站上。

Our subsidiaries both had encouraging momentum to start the year. Both businesses delivered year-over-year GMS growth with Reverb continuing to outpace the musical instruments industry and Depop growing faster in the U.S. than their comparable resale players. They are providing good lift to consolidated results, affording exposure to different categories and buyer purchase behavior than our core marketplace.

我們的子公司在年初都呈現出令人鼓舞的勢頭。兩家公司的 GMS 均實現了同比增長，其中 Reverb 繼續超過樂器行業，而 Depop 在美國的成長速度也超過了同類轉售公司。它們為綜合結果提供了良好的提升，提供了比我們核心市場不同的類別和買家購買行為的機會。

Both Reverb and Depop appeal to value-oriented shoppers with great deals, with Reverb highlighting news and outlet merchandise, establishing itself as a destination for affordable and discounted music gear. And Depop continuing to be a home for discovering affordable fashion, with success helping users to set fair prices and more easily negotiate.

Reverb 和 Depop 都以超值優惠吸引著以價值為導向的購物者，其中 Reverb 突出新聞和直銷商品，將自己打造成價格實惠且打折的音樂裝備目的地。 Depop 仍然是發現平價時尚的家園，成功幫助用戶設定公平的價格並更輕鬆地進行談判。

As of March 31, we had $1.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments. During the first quarter, we repurchased a total of $158 million in stock under our $1 billion June 2023 Board-authorized repurchase program, of which $566 million remains available as of March 31. Our capital-light business model allowed us to deliver strong free cash flow this quarter of approximately $59 million. We also continue to convert approximately 90% of our adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis.

截至 3 月 31 日，我們擁有 11 億美元的現金、現金等價物以及短期和長期投資。第一季度，我們根據2023 年6 月董事會授權的10 億美元回購計畫回購了總計1.58 億美元的股票，其中截至3 月31 日仍有5.66 億美元可用。能夠提供強勁的自由現金本季的流量約為 5,900 萬美元。我們也繼續將過去 12 個月約 90% 的調整後 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流。

Now turning to our outlook. As mentioned earlier, the larger-than-anticipated headwinds the Etsy marketplace experienced in March due to the shift in Easter and spring break timing had the inverse effect on our consolidated GMS for April, which was down about 2% year-over-year, pacing ahead of our consolidated Q1 results.

現在轉向我們的展望。如前所述，由於復活節和春假時間的變化，Etsy 市場在 3 月經歷了超出預期的阻力，這對我們 4 月的綜合 GMS 產生了反向影響，同比下降了約 2%，領先於我們第一季的綜合業績。

While we are certainly encouraged by this performance, and we have a lot of conviction about our product and marketing investments, which stack each quarter, we remain cautious given how challenging it has been to predict the outlook for our business. We currently expect the year-over-year decline in consolidated GMS for the second quarter to be similar to our actual first quarter performance, with the downside being a mid-single-digit decline and the upside being the top end of a low single-digit decline. Reverb and Depop are again expected to provide a modest tailwind within the consolidated GMS performance.

雖然我們對這項業績當然感到鼓舞，我們對每季疊加的產品和行銷投資充滿信心，但考慮到預測我們業務前景的挑戰性，我們仍然保持謹慎態度。我們目前預計第二季合併 GMS 的年減將與我們第一季的實際業績相似，下檔是中個位數下降，上行是低個位數的上限。 Reverb 和 Depop 預計將再次在綜合 GMS 性能中提供適度的推動力。

We anticipate consolidated take rate and adjusted EBITDA margin for the second quarter to be similar to our actual performance for the first quarter. Our subsidiaries are expected to post about a 300 basis point headwind to adjusted EBITDA margins as their revenue continues to flow through at lower margins.

我們預計第二季的合併利潤率和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將與第一季的實際業績相似。由於我們的子公司的收入繼續以較低的利潤率流動，預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將出現約 300 個基點的逆風。

With the range of potential outcomes for the full year, our current view suggests a modest acceleration in year-over-year consolidated GMS in the second half. You know we'd like to call it like we see it, and it's just really tough for us to call it right now.

考慮到全年的潛在結果，我們目前的觀點表明，下半年綜合 GMS 同比將小幅加速。你知道我們想像我們看到的那樣稱呼它，但現在我們很難稱呼它。

As you can see on this slide, we are reiterating our prior commentary about full year take rate revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin. Built into the take rate expectation for 2024, our Etsy Payments expansion plans, including recent addition of China and the seller setup we described earlier. As we continue to build exciting initiatives, we will look for opportunities to deliver a fair exchange of value, which enable us to invest in growth. Our team is highly engaged and energized, and we will continue to keep our eye on the prize.

正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的，我們重申了先前關於全年收入率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的評論。我們的 Etsy Payments 擴張計畫納入了 2024 年的接受率預期，包括最近增加的中國市場和我們先前描述的賣家設定。隨著我們繼續制定令人興奮的舉措，我們將尋找機會提供公平的價值交換，這使我們能夠投資於成長。我們的團隊高度投入且充滿活力，我們將繼續專注於獎項。

Thank you all for your time today. I will now turn the call over to the operator to take your questions.

感謝大家今天抽出時間。我現在將把電話轉給接線員回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Maria Ripps with Canaccord.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Canaccord 的 Maria Ripps。

So yes, first, kind of understanding that we're sort of in a tough environment right now for consumer spending, I just wanted to ask about the competitive environment. So it seems like the Temu sort of competitors started becoming more -- a little bit more aggressive throughout Q2 of last year. So as we start to sort of lapping that, do you anticipate maybe a more favorable or maybe a little bit more stable competitive backdrop? Kind of, is that becoming less of a headwind as we move through the second half of the year?

所以，是的，首先，我們現在的消費支出環境有點艱難，我只是想問一下競爭環境。因此，去年第二季度，Temu 類競爭對手似乎開始變得更加積極。因此，當我們開始對此進行嘗試時，您是否預期會出現更有利或更穩定的競爭背景？某種程度上，隨著下半年的到來，這種逆風是否會變得不再那麼困難？

It's possible. I think what we've been saying all along is that we think that the Chinese competitors are more symptoms than a root cause. I think what we're observing again and again, both at Etsy and what we read in the commentary from so many others in our space, is that consumers feel really pressured in spite of what we're seeing about a generally healthy economy. Consumers feel really pressured and so they are seeking value in deep discounts and deep promotions.

這是可能的。我認為我們一直在說的是，我們認為中國競爭對手更多的是症狀而不是根本原因。我認為，無論是在 Etsy 還是我們領域的許多其他人的評論中，我們一次又一次觀察到的是，儘管我們看到經濟總體健康，但消費者仍然感到壓力很大。消費者感到壓力很大，因此他們在深度折扣和深度促銷中尋求價值。

And so yes, the Chinese competitors are offering that, but Amazon and Walmart are, too. And it looks like the people that are driving most of the growth in e-commerce are people that are able to offer everyday essentials at very low prices. And there's probably some trip consolidation that's happening there, too. While you go into Walmart to buy your groceries at a cheaper price, you may pick up some other items as well while you're there.

所以，是的，中國競爭對手正在提供這種服務，但亞馬遜和沃爾瑪也是如此。看起來推動電子商務成長大部分的人是那些能夠以非常低的價格提供日常必需品的人。那裡可能也正在發生一些旅行整合。當您去沃爾瑪以更便宜的價格購買雜貨時，您還可以在那裡購買一些其他商品。

So I think that the Chinese competitors are a competitive headwind, no doubt. They've been a headwind to us and to everyone else in e-commerce. It would be great to see them not investing so aggressively in marketing. But I think the root cause of consumers feeling a ton of pressure and, therefore, seeking deep discounts will remain regardless of what the Chinese players do.

因此，我認為毫無疑問，中國競爭對手是競爭的阻力。它們對我們和電子商務領域的其他所有人來說都是一種阻力。很高興看到他們不那麼積極地投資於行銷。但我認為，無論中國企業做什麼，消費者感受到巨大壓力並因此尋求大幅折扣的根本原因仍然存在。

Our focus in that is not to chase them to the bottom, is not to try to be the very cheapest place to buy things. It's to make Etsy more Etsy. It's to lean into what makes Etsy different and special. And we talked a lot about that on the call. I'm incredibly excited about the -- all the initiatives we have going to really elevate the very best of Etsy, suppress the things that are not the best of Etsy and make the aisles easier to shop so people can see the wonderful products that we have on offer. And the more that they find really, really cheap and really disposable things, I think the more they will crave an alternative to that and we're bound and determined to use this moment to get even stronger as that alternative.

我們的重點不是把他們追到谷底，也不是試圖成為最便宜的買東西的地方。這是為了讓 Etsy 變得更加 Etsy。而是要深入了解 Etsy 的與眾不同和特別之處。我們在電話中討論了很多這個問題。我對我們所採取的所有舉措感到非常興奮，這些舉措將真正提升 Etsy 的最佳品質，抑制不是 Etsy 最佳品質的產品，讓過道更容易購物，以便人們可以看到我們推出的精彩產品。優惠。他們發現的真正非常便宜和一次性的東西越多，我認為他們就越渴望替代品，而我們有義務並決心利用這一刻來變得更強大，作為替代品。

Great. And then for my follow-up, I just wanted to ask you about your kind of product roadmap. Is there any sort of additional color you can share with regards to the expected sort of structure and timing of your loyalty program? And then sort of what -- which cohort of customers do you think sort of this loyalty program will have the most sort of tangible impact on driving sort of increased frequency? Is it onetime buyers kind of turning into repeat buyers? Or sort of maybe repeat buyers turning into habituals?

偉大的。然後，對於我的後續行動，我只是想問您的產品路線圖。關於忠誠度計畫的預期結構和時間安排，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？然後，您認為哪種忠誠度計劃將對推動頻率增加產生最實際的影響？是不是一次性買家變成回頭客了？或者說回頭客變成常客了？

Yes, great questions. The team is making really good progress. I don't have any specifics to announce, but we are on track to launch in beta form in the second half of the year. And the focus is going to be on occasional shoppers and how do we take people that shop on Etsy occasionally and turn those people into more loyal buyers.

是的，很好的問題。該團隊正在取得非常好的進展。我沒有任何具體資訊要宣布，但我們預計在今年下半年以測試版形式推出。重點是偶爾購物的人，以及我們如何吸引偶爾在 Etsy 上購物的人，並將這些人轉變為更忠誠的買家。

Our next question comes from Nick Jones with JMP Securities. My apologies, I'm waiting for him.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的尼克瓊斯。抱歉，我在等他。

I think he was having some issues before. So if you can't get him, we can go to the next.

我認為他之前遇到了一些問題。所以如果你找不到他，我們可以去下一個。

Our next question comes from Laura Champine with Loop.

我們的下一個問題來自 Laura Champine 和 Loop。

So the question is about the implication that GMS improves as you move through the year? And I know that's not what you're saying for Q2. But upon what kind of macro changes that predicated, if any?

那麼問題是，隨著這一年的推移，GMS 會有所改善嗎？我知道這不是您對第二季所說的內容。但如果有的話，這種宏觀變化是基於什麼樣的變化呢？

I am very excited about the initiatives the team is working on this year. I think the things we've talked about with gifting, getting even more known as the place for gifting, the things we've talked about with quality really leaning into the differentiation of Etsy. There's a lot of really good work going and that work stacks. So it is our current expectation that, more likely not, we would grow in the second half of the year as a result of that. Headwinds to that would be if the consumer discretionary environment gets even more challenged. And it's just hard. Things have been pretty volatile even week-to-week right now. So it's pretty hard to know how that's going to shape up.

我對團隊今年正在進行的舉措感到非常興奮。我認為我們所討論的送禮問題，以及我們所討論的品質問題，讓人們更加了解 Etsy 的差異化。有很多非常好的工作正在進行中，而且這些工作正在堆積起來。因此，我們目前的預期是，下半年我們將因此而成長，但可能性更大。如果消費者自由支配的環境受到更大的挑戰，這將是一個不利因素。這很難。現在情況甚至每週都相當不穩定。所以很難知道這將如何發展。

So just to make sure I'm understanding that correct, sort of a similar macro to what we're experiencing right now, but starting to see the impact of your own initiatives. Is that fair?

因此，為了確保我理解的是正確的，與我們現在正在經歷的類似的宏觀，但開始看到你自己的舉措的影響。這樣公平嗎？

That's fair. And I am very excited about what we're doing this year. I think it's really very relevant. I think it's going to be very impactful. And the team did great work last year. The product and engineering teams alone generated an incremental $1.5 billion of GMS from the work they did last year. So we're lapping that and I think the work we're doing this year is going to be even more impactful. I believe that. I think we're on track for that. And so we believe that can lead to accelerated growth in the second half. That's our hope and we think it'll happen.

這還算公平。我對我們今年所做的事情感到非常興奮。我認為這確實非常相關。我認為這將會產生非常大的影響。去年，該團隊做了出色的工作。僅產品和工程團隊去年的工作就為 GMS 帶來了 15 億美元的增量。所以我們正在努力，我認為我們今年所做的工作將會更具影響力。我相信。我認為我們正在朝著這個目標邁進。因此，我們相信這可能會導致下半年加速成長。這是我們的希望，我們認為它會實現。

Got it. A quick follow-on, something that Rachel called out was positive friction with sellers with this incremental fee. And it's been, I think, 12 quarters in a row that your sellers have been outgrowing your buyers. Is that making it tougher for search to improve? And would you rather see a narrowing of that gap?

知道了。雷切爾（Rachel）很快提出的後續行動是，這種增量費用與賣家產生了積極的摩擦。我認為，賣家的成長速度已經連續 12 個季度超過了買家。這是否會讓搜尋變得更難改進？您希望看到這一差距縮小嗎？

Yes, that's such a good question, Laura. So, yes, we have been saying for quite some time that we have quite a lot of sellers and quite a lot of inventory, and we want to make sure that we have enough demand to match supply. And so particularly seeing low effort, sellers come on the platform, sellers that may not have the skill or the will is more data we have to process, more handholding we've got to give to folks.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，勞拉。所以，是的，我們很長一段時間以來一直在說，我們有相當多的賣家和相當多的庫存，我們希望確保我們有足夠的需求來匹配供應。因此，特別是看到賣家的努力程度較低，他們就來到了平台上，而賣家可能沒有技能或意願，我們必須處理更多的數據，我們必須為人們提供更多的幫助。

And so having a group of sellers that have higher skill and higher will, these are the sellers that I think are most likely to succeed on the platform anyway. We think that's very helpful. So the early results from having just a small fee of $15 to set up a shop on Etsy, if you're not prepared to invest $15 to get your shop going on Etsy, you may not have the skill or the will to really succeed. So we're seeing that a little bit of a speed bump be helpful.

因此，擁有一群技能更高、意志更堅定的賣家，我認為這些賣家無論如何都是最有可能在平台上取得成功的。我們認為這非常有幫助。因此，早期的結果是只需要支付 15 美元的小額費用就可以在 Etsy 上開設商店，如果您不准備投資 15 美元讓您的商店在 Etsy 上運營，那麼您可能沒有真正成功的技能或意願。所以我們發現一點減速是有幫助的。

Josh talked about a few things about our quality and curation and really getting better at finding the good stuff, elevating that to the things you see first and then suppressing or not uploading the stuff that's lower quality. So there's a lot of initiatives going on at the same time that's all about keeping -- not only keeping the marketplace safe and secure, but really a focus on quality and being able to find the good stuff. So we also talk about actively removing things that don't comply with our handmade policy. So some of these things that we do on the upfront help us with the downstream efforts that we want to invest in to really focus on quality and organization of the best of [sellers].

喬許談到了一些關於我們的品質和策展的事情，以及真正在尋找好東西方面做得更好，將其提升到您首先看到的東西，然後抑製或不上傳品質較低的東西。因此，同時進行的許多舉措都是為了保持——不僅要保持市場的安全，而且要真正專注於品質並能夠找到好東西。所以我們也談論積極移除那些不符合我們手工政策的東西。因此，我們在前期所做的一些事情有助於我們進行下游工作，我們希望投資這些工作，以真正專注於最好的[賣家]的品質和組織。

And I can't help but pile on because I'm really passionate about this. We've talked about the abundance of supply on Etsy a lot, but what does that look like in real life? When you search for something, we usually have thousands and in fact, often tens of thousands of relevant results. And the first page of search results might be 30 things that look very, very similar. And to a buyer, that's just a lot of cognitive load.

我情不自禁地繼續說下去，因為我真的對此充滿熱情。我們已經多次談論 Etsy 上的豐富供應，但在現實生活中是什麼樣子的呢？當您搜尋某些內容時，我們通常有數千個，事實上，通常有數萬個相關結果。搜尋結果的第一頁可能有 30 個看起來非常非常相似的東西。對買家來說，這只是很大的認知負擔。

If these 30 things are virtually identical, can't you just tell me which one is the best? Or what are the 3 and what are the trade-offs between them? And that's harder for us where we don't map to a catalog. But I think with the latest machine learning and gen AI techniques, it's easier and easier for us to start to understand what the stuff is, what's very substantially similar and really try to give you fewer choices of just the best.

如果這 30 件事情幾乎是一樣的，你就不能告訴我哪一件是最好的嗎？或者這三個是什麼以及它們之間的權衡是什麼？如果我們不映射到目錄，這對我們來說就更困難了。但我認為，借助最新的機器學習和新一代人工智慧技術，我們越來越容易開始了解這些東西是什麼，什麼是非常相似的，並真正嘗試為您提供更少的選擇，而只是最好的。

And in doing that, offer a lot more diversity as well. Instead of 30 really similar versions, we can offer much more different things. And that can also help buyers to understand the breadth of offerings that we have on Etsy. So, not only might they have a more satisfying purchase experience this time, but they'll come back more often because they realize the breadth of offer that we have.

在過程中，還要提供更多的多樣性。我們可以提供更多不同的東西，而不是 30 個真正相似的版本。這也可以幫助買家了解我們在 Etsy 上提供的產品的廣度。因此，他們這次不僅可以獲得更滿意的購買體驗，而且會更頻繁地回來，因為他們意識到我們提供的產品範圍很廣。

Our next question comes from Michael Morton with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·莫頓和莫菲特·內桑森。

Perfect. Two questions, if I could. Jeff, you spoke to seller removal, I think, being a bit of a gross margin headwind. It was our interpretation, looking at some of the comments last year, that some of the fraud that was created in poor behavior from, like, noncompliant merchants could be actually like a gross margin headwind last year. So just curious, as you work through this process. If this could be a tailwind to gross margins as you get some of the noncompliant sellers off, who -- like, maybe elevated levels of returns that are, like, outside of Etsy's protection program?

完美的。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。傑夫，我認為你談到了賣家移除，這對毛利率來說有點不利。根據我們去年的一些評論，我們的解釋是，一些由不合規商家等不良行為造成的詐欺實際上可能會像去年的毛利率逆風一樣。所以當你完成這個過程時，只是好奇。如果這可以成為毛利率的順風車，因為你可以擺脫一些不合規的賣家，他們——比如，可能會提高回報水平，例如，在 Etsy 的保護計劃之外？

Yes. So in terms of gross margins, possibly, yes. And in particular, it may not be noncompliant, meaning sellers that are not handmade, but just sellers that have higher levels of refunds or consistently ship late. So within the quality initiative, when we say we don't want to just get you to a product you're going to buy, but to a purchase experience you're going to love, how do we have the search engine explicitly favor sellers that consistently ship on time, that consistently get 5-star reviews, that very rarely get returns.

是的。所以就毛利率而言，可能是的。特別是，它可能不是不合規，這意味著賣家不是手工製作的，而只是退款水平較高或一致延遲發貨的賣家。因此，在品質計劃中，當我們說我們不想只讓您找到您要購買的產品，而是讓您獲得您會喜歡的購買體驗時，我們如何讓搜尋引擎明確有利於賣家始終按時發貨，始終獲得5 星評價，很少獲得退貨。

Our search engine has been very focused on relevance. Is this item very closely related to what we think the person is likely to buy. In addition to relevance, we really want the quality of the purchase experience to be very important. And that, I think, is going to lead to more satisfied buyers who come back more often and should be lower cost of revenue through lower refunds.

我們的搜尋引擎非常注重相關性。該商品是否與我們認為該人可能購買的商品密切相關？除了相關性之外，我們確實希望購買體驗的品質也非常重要。我認為，這將導致買家更加滿意，他們會更頻繁地回來，並且應該透過減少退款來降低收入成本。

Separately, what I was specifically referring to in my comments was doing an even better job taking not handmade items off the site. And I know you've been talking about that with us, and we couldn't agree more that it's really important that Etsy be Etsy. And there are new technologies out there that make it easier and easier to spot. For example, does this same item exist also on AliExpress. And we assume right now, if that item exists on AliExpress, we assume it's mass produced and we take it down.

另外，我在評論中特別提到的是，我們做得更好，沒有將手工製品從網站上移除。我知道您一直在與我們談論這個問題，我們完全同意 Etsy 成為 Etsy 非常重要。而新技術的出現使得它變得越來越容易被發現。例如，速賣通上是否也存在相同的商品。我們現在假設，如果該商品存在於全球速賣通上，我們假設它是大量生產的，然後我們將其刪除。

You as a seller can appeal that, you can tell us how you made it yourself, and it still ended up on AliExpress. And by the way, that's true sometimes. You can appeal that, but our default now is we take that down. And that's just one example. Gen AI is actually going to be, I think, more and more helpful at understanding how much value did this particular seller truly add to the product.

你作為賣家可以申訴，你可以告訴我們你是如何自己製作的，但它仍然出現在速賣通上。順便說一句，有時確實如此。您可以對此提出上訴，但我們現在默認將其刪除。這只是一個例子。我認為，Gen AI 實際上將越來越有助於了解這個特定賣家真正為產品增加了多少價值。

And we're looking to prioritize items that are really original where the seller really added value and then be able to explain to the buyer exactly where the seller did add value. Did the seller make it themselves, did they design it and produce it with a production partner, did they personalize it. I think that buyers are interested in knowing that. And I think we can make that a lot more explicit. And that also, I think, is going to make the Etsy buying experience a lot more satisfying.

我們希望優先考慮賣家真正增值的真正原創商品，然後能夠向買家準確解釋賣家在哪些地方增值。賣家是自己製作的，是與生產合作夥伴一起設計和生產的，還是進行個人化的。我認為買家有興趣了解這一點。我認為我們可以讓這一點更加明確。我認為，這也將使 Etsy 的購買體驗更加令人滿意。

And I just wanted to comment real quickly on, we've been doing takedowns, I don't know exactly how many quarters now, but was really leaning into it for at least the last 2 or 3, so we've gotten successively better at it. We've often talked about the substitution effect. So we take things down, it does not necessarily mean a 1:1 loss of GMS when we do that because we have so many listings on the site, but there's often very similar items that customers can substitute for that, but it does, hopefully, mean we're taking down low-quality GMS. So GMS that doesn't need -- that doesn't come with a high amount of chargeback or fraud or unpaid charges, we call it here. And the second thing I was going to say is that the gross margin impact may therefore be offset by improvements in the cost of revenue hits we're getting from some of the lower quality sellers that are on the site.

我只是想快速評論一下，我們一直在進行擊倒，我不知道現在到底有多少個季度，但至少在過去的 2 或 3 個季度裡我們真的很投入，所以我們已經逐漸變得更好在它。我們經常談論替代效應。所以我們把東西拿下來，當我們這樣做時，並不一定意味著GMS 的損失是1:1，因為我們網站上有很多列表，但通常有非常相似的商品可供客戶替代，但希望確實如此。因此，GMS 不需要 - 不會帶來大量退款或欺詐或未付費用，我們在這裡稱之為。我要說的第二件事是，毛利率的影響可能會被我們從網站上一些品質較低的賣家那裡獲得的收入成本的改善所抵消。

That's great. And is it safe to assume that the removal of these merchants is having any type of impact on on-site revenue just due to, like, the auction dynamic that there's a merchant sitting right underneath that…

那太棒了。可以安全地假設，刪除這些商家會對現場收入產生任何類型的影響，只是因為，例如，拍賣動態，有一個商家坐在其下面…

Yes. Most of the time, when we remove an item, there's another seller ready, willing and able to take that sale instead. And so when we talked about that 50 basis point hit, we've been really leaning in to -- and we've always taken down items for not complying, with not handmade. That's always been a focus. But we've been getting better technology and investing a lot in that. And as we've taken down, as we said in the call, millions of listings and tens of thousands of sellers, it has had about a 50 bp impact to, we think, our site, meaning sometimes it is not replaced, but most of the time it is. And frankly, that 50 basis points of headwind, we are happy to bear. We think it's a great investment in making sure that Etsy is different than -- and Etsy is Etsy.

是的。大多數時候，當我們刪除一件商品時，就會有另一個賣家準備好、願意並且能夠接受該銷售。因此，當我們談論 50 個基點的打擊時，我們一直在真正傾向於 - 我們總是刪除不符合規定的項目，而不是手工製作的項目。這一直是個焦點。但我們一直在獲得更好的技術，並在這方面投入了大量資金。正如我們在電話中所說，我們已經刪除了數百萬個清單和數以萬計的賣家，我們認為它對我們的網站產生了大約50 個基點的影響，這意味著有時它不會被替換，但大多數情況下它不會被替換。坦白說，我們很樂意承受 50 個基點的逆風。我們認為這是一項巨大的投資，可以確保 Etsy 與眾不同，而 Etsy 就是 Etsy。

I just want to mention real quick, we are publishing a transparency report next week, so keep an eye out for that. Mike, I'm sure you'll be all over it.

我只想快速提一下，我們下週將發布一份透明度報告，所以請密切注意。麥克，我相信你會明白的。

Our next question comes from Naved Khan with B. Riley Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Naved Khan。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So 2 questions. Maybe just to kind of tease out some of the noise. So Q1, you also have some impact potentially from tax refunds. I heard that tax refunds were up 6% this year. And then you also had an extra day. So if you're talking about as a baseline, GMS being similar in terms of year-on-year growth, does it mean it actually is improving trend-wise? How should we interpret that?

好的。所以有2個問題。也許只是為了消除一些噪音。因此，第一季度，退稅也可能產生一些影響。聽說今年退稅增加了6%。然後你還多了一天。因此，如果您談論的是作為基準，GMS 的同比增長情況相似，這是否意味著它實際上在趨勢方面有所改善？我們該如何解釋呢？

There are things that went both ways that were beneficial to Q1 that won't repeat in Q2 and things that are beneficial to Q2, like Mother's Day, that didn't happen in Q1. Leap Day was -- we say [191st] of an additional amount. So it's a pretty small de minimis, let's say, less than 1 point of benefit to Q1.

有些事情對第一季有利，但在第二季度不會重複；而對第二季度有利的事情，例如母親節，在第一季沒有發生。閏日是－我們說的[第 191] 一個額外的金額。因此，這是一個非常小的微量，比方說，對第一季的好處不到 1 個百分點。

Tax refunds were up a bit. They came later in the quarter, so it could actually potentially be -- goes in the bank accounting and can actually replenish people's balance sheets. That could be a longer-term benefit. So we -- I don't think we thought about it the way you're thinking about it that granularly on what's in Q1 that doesn't repeat in Q2 and vice versa. But we -- as I've said, similar to the guide that we gave in Q1, that's our current expectation.

退稅金額略有增加。它們是在本季晚些時候出現的，所以它實際上有可能進入銀行會計，實際上可以補充人們的資產負債表。這可能是一個長期的好處。因此，我認為我們沒有像您思考的方式那樣詳細地考慮第一季中不會在第二季度中重複的內容，反之亦然。但正如我所說，與我們在第一季提供的指南類似，這是我們目前的期望。

You point out some fair things. It is also true, as I think many of you know that the comps get a little harder each month this quarter. So May is a little -- last year, May was a little stronger than April and June was a little stronger than May. So we also consider that. And we're doing a lot of good things to make the business better, make the customer experience better. And we think that's important as well. So net-net, what we said is we think it'll be roughly similar, could be as high as the top end of low single digits or could be mid-single digits, particularly if discretionary gets even more pressured.

你指出了一些公平的事情。這也是事實，因為我想你們很多人都知道本季每個月的競爭都會變得更加困難。所以五月有點——去年，五月比四月強一點，六月比五月強一點。所以我們也考慮到這一點。我們正在做很多好事來讓業務變得更好，讓客戶體驗更好。我們認為這也很重要。因此，淨淨值，我們所說的是，我們認為它會大致相似，可能會高達低個位數的上限，也可能會達到中個位數，特別是如果可自由支配的壓力更大的話。

Understood. And then maybe a quick follow-up. So I think Josh talked about app downloads as a priority. What are the things you look at in terms of driving those downloads?

明白了。然後也許是快速跟進。所以我認為喬什談到了應用程式下載作為優先事項。您認為推動這些下載的因素有哪些？

Yes. Great question. Thank you so much for that. So first, we find that someone who is an app and user produces about 75% more GMS than somebody who's not an app user. So we think having someone on the app is a really valuable thing. And we -- frankly, we leaned into this a fair amount in 2021, and in 2022 and 2023, it wasn't the big focus with competing priorities. It's a big focus right now for us again.

是的。很好的問題。對此感激不盡。首先，我們發現應用程式使用者產生的 GMS 比非應用程式使用者多出約 75%。因此，我們認為有人使用該應用程式是一件非常有價值的事情。坦白說，我們在 2021 年對此進行了相當多的關注，而在 2022 年和 2023 年，這並不是競爭優先事項的重點。現在這又成為我們的一大焦點。

And the kinds of things we can do is, first, use more screen real estate to be promoting why you should be downloading the app. When someone's on mobile, web or on the desktop, using more screen real estate to talk about the benefits of being in the app, there are some trade-off of that, of course, because we could be using that space to try to sell you something and drive the sale. And we're going to be using it in the right moments, in the right ways to try to drive to app download. We think from a lifetime value perspective, that's a good trade-off.

我們可以做的事情是，首先，使用更多的螢幕空間來宣傳您應該下載應用程式的原因。當有人在行動裝置、網路或桌面上使用更多的螢幕空間來談論使用應用程式的好處時，當然需要一些權衡，因為我們可能會利用這些空間來嘗試銷售你的東西並推動銷售。我們將在正確的時刻以正確的方式使用它來嘗試推動應用程式下載。我們認為從終生價值的角度來看，這是一個很好的權衡。

We're always looking at how can we add more benefits in the app to make the app more valuable, to make it richer. So you've seen us do things like have app-only specials and sales or to have a first-on-app like certain deals and drops that are specific to the app. Track-your-package has been a very powerful call to action. Why you need to download the app, so you can track the package on the purchase that you just made.

我們一直在研究如何在應用程式中添加更多優勢，使應用程式更有價值、更豐富。因此，您已經看到我們做了一些事情，例如僅提供應用程式特價和銷售，或提供應用程式首次應用（例如特定於該應用程式的某些交易和掉落）。追蹤您的包裹是一個非常強大的行動號召。為什麼您需要下載該應用程序，以便您可以追蹤剛剛購買的包裹。

So we've got some squads that are really focused right now on just developing the value propositions and promoting the value propositions to make sure that people are downloading the app and using the app more. And when we compare Etsy to our peers, we find that our penetration on Etsy is lower than many peers. So we think that's a gap that we can close. And we think in doing that, we'll drive more LTV, more frequency, and we think that's very helpful.

因此，我們有一些團隊現在真正專注於開發價值主張並推廣價值主張，以確保人們下載該應用程式並更多地使用該應用程式。當我們將 Etsy 與同行進行比較時，我們發現我們在 Etsy 上的滲透率低於許多同行。所以我們認為這是我們可以彌補的差距。我們認為這樣做可以提高生命週期價值、頻率，我們認為這非常有幫助。

Our next question comes from Trevor Young with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的特雷弗楊。

Okay. Great. Just to clarify on the full year guide commentary and accelerating in 2H. Is that to be interpreted that we'll still be slightly negative in the back half? Or do you think we'll get to flattish GMS by year-end?

好的。偉大的。只是為了澄清全年指南評論和 2H 加速。這是否可以解釋為我們在後半場仍然會稍微消極？或者你認為我們會在年底前實現 GMS 的扁平化嗎？

So the guide we gave said that we -- the range of the guide was that we could be slightly positive -- slightly better than Q2, not positive, slightly better than Q2 or slightly worse than Q2, which I know is not very helpful. Our current forecast sees that or our current view is that we see some acceleration as we go through the year. But the cushion, the margin of error has gotten a lot narrower, which is why we're very cautiously giving you some giving you some perspective on what we are seeing.

因此，我們給出的指南說，我們- 指南的範圍是我們可以稍微積極- 比第二季度略好，而不是積極，比第二季度稍好或比第二季度稍差，我知道這不是很有幫助。我們目前的預測是這樣的，或者我們目前的觀點是，隨著這一年的發展，我們會看到一些加速。但是緩衝、誤差幅度已經變得更窄了，這就是為什麼我們非常謹慎地向您提供一些關於我們所看到的情況的一些觀點。

So it's a kind of a cautious narrow range without specifically saying you get all the way to flat or positive at that upper end and how much further could you go from the Q2 range that we've given you on the downside. We're modestly optimistic because we have really great product and marketing initiatives planned and they stack as they go through the year. And so we felt confident enough in our internal forecasting to be able to give that guide.

因此，這是一種謹慎的窄幅區間，沒有具體說明你會在上限處一直持平或呈正值，以及你可以從我們給你的下行區間進一步走多遠。我們持適度樂觀的態度，因為我們計劃了非常出色的產品和行銷計劃，而這些計劃在這一年中不斷疊加。因此，我們對內部預測充滿信心，能夠提供該指南。

I think what we said is a modest acceleration in the second half of the year.

我認為我們所說的是下半年的適度加速。

Yes. And we didn't say whether it would be -- to get to positive or not.

是的。我們沒有說是否會變得積極。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then just to clarify on the 50 bp headwind from removing listings that violate the policies. Is that expected -- that 50 basis points expected to continue throughout this year? Is that what's baked in?

好的。然後只是為了澄清刪除違反政策的清單所帶來的 50 個基點的阻力。這是否是預期的——50 個基點預計將在今年持續下去？是這樣烤出來的嗎？

So that has been happening for about 6 to 9 months. And the reason we put that data point in there is just to give some sense that we're leaning in a lot, but there's still quite a high replacement rate. So even as we take things down we generally see another seller ready, willing and able to make that sale, but it has a slight headwind.

這樣的情況已經發生了大約 6 到 9 個月。我們把這個數據點放在那裡的原因只是為了讓人感覺我們已經在很大程度上傾斜了，但替代率仍然相當高。因此，即使我們把東西拿下來，我們通常也會看到另一個賣家已經準備好、願意並且能夠進行銷售，但它有輕微的阻力。

I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue. It could even grow a little bit more as we keep leaning in more and more. We've always said that there -- we try as hard we can to enforce, and there are some things that get through our enforcement controls. It is a small but non-0 number. And so I think 50 bps is pretty consistent with that prior commentary.

看到這種情況繼續下去我不會感到驚訝。隨著我們越來越傾向於它，它甚至可能會增長一點。我們總是說，我們會盡最大努力去執行，有些事情是透過我們的執行來控制的。這是一個很小但非 0 的數字。所以我認為 50 bps 與之前的評論非常一致。

Our next question comes from Ken Gawrelski with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Ken Gawrelski。

Can I ask, it's clear to me that you see yourselves as a growth company, right? And unfortunately, you haven't been growing. So the question I have is, do you feel like you have enough certainty around the different macro and maybe even micro factors to be more aggressive, right? To take -- to be a bit bolder in your initiatives. And I'm not suggesting that you're not making real attempts to get back to growth.

我可以問一下，我很清楚你們認為自己是成長型公司，對吧？不幸的是，你並沒有成長。所以我的問題是，你是否覺得你對不同的宏觀甚至微觀因素有足夠的確定性，可以採取更積極的態度，對嗎？採取－在你的倡議中更加大膽。我並不是說你們沒有做出真正的嘗試來恢復成長。

But what I'm getting at is are you willing to make the bet now to say either we're going to spend much more on marketing because we have a better feel for the landscape and we've stomached the Temu excessive spending for multiple quarters, and now we know what it looks like, right, and we have a feel for where the macro, where the consumer opportunity is or is not.

但我想說的是，你現在是否願意打賭說，要么我們將在營銷上投入更多資金，因為我們對景觀有更好的感覺，並且我們已經忍受了特穆多個季度的過度支出，現在我們知道它是什麼樣子了，對吧，我們對宏觀、消費者機會在哪裡或不在哪裡有了感覺。

I guess what I'm just trying to get at is, it feels like there's loyalty in alpha coming or in a beta coming in the back half, but it doesn't -- I don't hear yet that kind of the real aggressive move from you. So talk to me about how you think about that, how -- do you feel like the organization is prepared to be more aggressive to get back to growth?

我想我只是想表達的是，感覺阿爾法的到來或後半段的貝塔中存在著忠誠度，但事實並非如此——我還沒有聽到那種真正的侵略性離開你。那麼請跟我談談您對此的看法，您認為組織是否準備好更積極地恢復成長？

Yes. I think that we -- the internal mantra we have been on for the past year is bold and fast. That we want to move to bigger, bolder, more eye-catching more tension grabbing releases and fewer of the more incremental steps that have been driving a ton of progress in a very ROI positive and very predictable way for the last 7 years is not what's going to catch consumer attention and drive that kind of step function change that we are looking for.

是的。我認為，過去一年我們一直奉行的內在口號是大膽而快速。我們想要轉向更大、更大膽、更引人注目、更緊張的版本，並減少過去7 年中以非常積極的投資回報率和非常可預測的方式推動大量進展的增量步驟，但這並不是我們想要的。

And so that's very much the kinds of things that we have been leaning into, Gift Mode being one example, where we're launching a whole new experience on Etsy. We launched it very quickly in MVP form. I'm very proud of what the team was able to do in a short amount of time. And now you're going to see us steadily make that experience much better and continue to really differentiate that versus the rest of the market.

這就是我們一直在關注的事情，禮物模式就是一個例子，我們在 Etsy 上推出了一種全新的體驗。我們很快就以 MVP 的形式推出了它。我對團隊在短時間內所取得的成就感到非常自豪。現在，您將看到我們穩步改善這種體驗，並繼續真正使其與市場其他產品區分開來。

I think the work that we're doing in quality, which you'll see as we roll through the second half of the year, I think, is going to be very impactful. And in fact, pretty bold. I do think launching a loyalty program in beta like we're trying to launch, you'll see, is going to be interesting. And our economic model looks different than first party and making the economics work when you're a third-party seller is a little different.

我認為我們在品質方面所做的工作將非常有影響力，在今年下半年你會看到。事實上，相當大膽。我確實認為像我們試圖推出的那樣推出測試版忠誠度計劃，你會發現，將會很有趣。我們的經濟模式看起來與第一方不同，當您作為第三方賣家時，讓經濟發揮作用也有些不同。

You're going to see us really lean in there. So we are very much looking for frame breaking, attention grabbing customer experiences that we can launch more often whole cloth and less bit by bit, which has pros and cons, but I think in terms of catching consumer attention, it's really important.

你會看到我們真的靠在那裡。因此，我們非常尋求打破框架、吸引註意力的客戶體驗，我們可以更頻繁地推出整塊布料，而不是一點一點地推出，這有利有弊，但我認為就吸引消費者註意力而言，這非常重要。

What I don't think is just spending a lot more is going to be the answer. So if -- when we hear, like, marketing, lean a lot more into marketing, we think we spend a rational amount of money on marketing. We think we're very rational about what is our cost of capital, what do you get if you invest the $1, and how do we make sure every time we invest $1, we get more than our cost of capital back. We, I think, have a lot of science and a lot of discipline around that.

我不認為光是花更多錢就能解決問題。因此，如果——當我們聽到行銷時，更傾向於行銷，我們會認為我們在行銷上花費了合理的資金。我們認為，我們對於資本成本是多少、投資 1 美元會得到什麼以及我們如何確保每次投資 1 美元時獲得的回報都高於資本成本非常理性。我認為，我們對此有很多科學知識和很多紀律。

The other thing I'll say is minimizing waste is a really important value that we have always held dear. We are in our seventh year of efficiency now. Every single quarter, we look at every single dollar we spend. And so if you look at the KTLO, the "keep the lights on" activity required to support an organization of our size and scale, it is a pretty material effort to run a business of our size, scale and complexity. We have resources to grow. They're not infinite. And so every year, we pick a few battles, and we really lean into those with our resources.

我要說的另一件事是，最大限度地減少浪費是我們一直珍惜的一個非常重要的價值。現在我們已經進入了效率提升的第七年。每個季度，我們都會查看我們花費的每一美元。因此，如果你看看 KTLO，即支持我們這樣規模和規模的組織所需的「保持運作」活動，就會發現，經營我們這樣規模、規模和複雜性的企業需要付出相當大的物質努力。我們有資源可以成長。它們不是無限的。因此，每年我們都會選擇一些戰鬥，我們確實會利用我們的資源來投入這些戰鬥。

You could rightly say why last year and the year before, where you're not focused more on app download. App download is a great idea. You should be doing it. And I couldn't agree more. It's a great idea. Relative to the other things we were shipping last year, it didn't make the cut. And we are, every year, making very tough decisions around what are the few things we really want to lean into that we think are bold, that we really think are going to drive growth.

您可以正確地說為什麼去年和前年您沒有更多地關注應用程式下載。下載應用程式是個好主意。你應該這樣做。我完全同意。這是個好主意。相對於我們去年發貨的其他東西，它沒有成功。每年，我們都會做出非常艱難的決定，圍繞著哪些我們真正想要投入的、我們認為大膽的、我們真正認為將推動成長的事情。

By the way, what the team did last year, we have conviction, we have a (expletive) ton of measurement -- sorry, a lot of measurement -- excuse me, a lot of measurement to say we think it drove $1.5 billion of incremental value from the products that team shipped last year. And we have a lot of conviction that the work they're going to do this year, with a 12% smaller team, is going to drive even more.

順便說一句，我們團隊去年所做的事情，我們有信心，我們有大量（咒罵的）衡量標準 - 抱歉，有很多衡量標準 - 對不起，有很多衡量標準，我們認為它帶動了 15 億美元的增長團隊去年出貨的產品的增量價值。我們堅信，他們今年要做的工作，雖然團隊規模縮小了 12%，但將會帶來更多的推動力。

So we think the work we're doing is meaningfully driving growth. It's driving strong ROI. And we're going to keep leaning into things that we think get customers to reconsider. They think they know Etsy, here are things you didn't know about Etsy that gets you to want to come back and come back more often.

因此，我們認為我們正在做的工作正在有意義地推動成長。它帶來了強勁的投資報酬率。我們將繼續專注於那些我們認為能讓客戶重新考慮的事情。他們認為自己了解 Etsy，以下是您不了解 Etsy 的一些事情，這些事情會讓您想要回來並且更頻繁地回來。

I just want to slip in a couple of quick data points. First of all, the definition of MVP is most valuable...

我只想簡單介紹幾個數據點。首先，MVP的定義是最有價值的…

It's minimum viable product.

這是最低限度可行的產品。

So that's our short hand for shipping not -- being agile, not waiting for the whole thing to be fully baked. Second of all, there are a couple of data points that just point to strength. I mean, I think one of the things we feel internally is that we're building really great product, and we have really great marketing initiatives, and we're walking straight uphill into the wind with these macro pressures bearing down on us. And when the winds shift, we are going to be very well poised for -- we have a phenomenal product offering and we are on a terrific differentiation from other players out there.

所以這就是我們對運輸的簡寫，而不是——敏捷，而不是等待整件事情完全完成。其次，有幾個數據點只是顯示了實力。我的意思是，我認為我們內部感受到的一件事是，我們正在打造非常出色的產品，我們有非常出色的營銷舉措，而且在這些宏觀壓力壓在我們身上的情況下，我們正迎著風直上坡。當風向轉變時，我們將做好充分準備——我們擁有出色的產品，並且與其他參與者有著巨大的差異化。

And the couple of data points I would point to when we -- again, when we look at our household income differentiation between lower household incomes and upper and especially the highest household income, so it was above $200,000. We see continued separation that the higher household incomes are actually growing. And so when -- and the lower household incomes are not. So you can see that behavior quite clearly that people are looking for discounts. They're spending on essentials and things like health care, gas, food, whatever. And they just don't have money left in their bank account for things that are highly discretionary.

當我們審視低收入家庭和高收入家庭、特別是最高家庭收入之間的家庭收入差異時，我會指出幾個數據點，即高於 20 萬美元。我們看到持續的分離表明較高的家庭收入實際上正在增​​長。因此，當家庭收入較低時，情況並非如此。所以你可以很清楚地看到人們正在尋找折扣的行為。他們把錢花在必需品上，例如醫療保健、天然氣、食物等等。而且他們的銀行帳戶裡沒有足夠的錢來進行高度自由裁量的事情。

Secondly, our GMS per buyer is still 25% higher than it was in 2019. And the reason that's important is if you look at -- I don't know if you've got a chance to listen to the whole call, but we showed a slide, and you can look after, it shows consumer discretionary spending is coming down and down and down. And it's not all the way down to the levels it was in -- yet in 2019. It's still about 8% higher than it was then, but our spend GMS per buyer is 25% higher than it was then. So we're still strong amongst -- is it like a giant among...

其次，我們的每位買家的 GMS 仍比 2019 年高出 25%。 ，它顯示消費者可自由支配支出正在不斷下降。而且並沒有完全下降到 2019 年的水平。所以我們仍然很強大——是不是就像一個巨人......

Pick your analogy, I've already messed up our language enough to...

選擇你的類比，我已經把我們的語言搞亂了，足以......

We're still quite strong, and we're laying down these initiatives brick by brick. They just aren't really getting the benefit of the true consumer demand that we would expect to get once we're not facing these strong macro pressures.

我們仍然相當強大，我們正在一點一點地制定這些舉措。他們只是沒有真正從真正的消費者需求中受益，而一旦我們沒有面臨這些強大的宏觀壓力，我們就有望獲得這種需求。

Understood. One quick follow-up just on the big game, I think you call it, spending. I almost said the super name. But the -- you now have 60 to 90 days to kind of judge the impact of -- in all brand spending. You really leaned into brand spending. What have you seen as the impact? Where has it worked? Where hasn't it worked? Is it frequency? Occasional buyers? What -- new buyers? What is it?

明白了。我想對你所說的「支出」這一重大遊戲進行快速跟進。我差點就說出超級名字了。但是，您現在有 60 到 90 天的時間來判斷所有品牌支出的影響。你確實很注重品牌支出。您認為影響是什麼？它在哪裡起作用了？哪裡沒發揮作用？是頻率嗎？偶爾買家？什麼——新買家？它是什麼？

So if we're talking about -- are we talking about the big game ad in particular? Or we're talking about Gift Mode kind of more generally.

那麼，如果我們正在談論——我們是在特別談論大型遊戲廣告嗎？或者我們更普遍地談論禮物模式。

No, no, I'm talking about the big game, but I'm also talking about brand advertising, like that big push on brand.

不，不，我在談論大型遊戲，但我也在談論品牌廣告，例如對品牌的大力推動。

So in big game, I am happy we did it. it did what we wanted it to do, which was to ignite a conversation around the nation about Etsy's new product, Gift Mode, and that was the goal. I want to compliment the team. We managed to secure the single most viewed spot during the entire big game and our ad tested super well for things like recall and breakthrough and generating interest to try.

所以在大型比賽中，我很高興我們做到了。它做了我們想要它做的事情，那就是在全國範圍內引發關於 Etsy 新產品 Gift Mode 的討論，這就是我們的目標。我想讚揚團隊。我們成功地在整個大型比賽中獲得了觀看次數最多的位置，並且我們的廣告在回憶和突破以及激發嘗試興趣等方面測試得非常好。

So I think the team's execution of it was really good. But the strategic goal was we have something to say, and that is that Etsy is the place to go for gifting and we're launching this new thing. And I think that, that big game ad did a good job, and we shared some data on the call about 200% increase in conversations mentioning gift, mentioning Etsy, significant increase in people associating Etsy as a place to help find gifts.

所以我認為團隊的執行力非常好。但策略目標是我們有話要說，那就是 Etsy 是送禮的地方，我們正在推出這個新東西。我認為，那個大型遊戲廣告做得很好，我們在電話會議上分享了一些數據，提到禮物的對話增加了200%，提到Etsy，將Etsy 視為幫助尋找禮物的地方的人數顯著增加。

And if we look at gifting GMS, that grew significantly faster than site-wide GMS and was positive in the first quarter. All of those, I think, are helpful data points. Does it mean we would do it again next year? I'm not sure. It really would depend on do we have something we really want to announce. Do we have something we really want to say.

如果我們看一下贈品 GMS，它的成長速度明顯快於全站 GMS，並且在第一季呈正成長。我認為所有這些都是有用的數據點。這是否意味著我們明年還會再做一次？我不知道。這實際上取決於我們是否有真正想宣布的事情。我們有什麼真正想說的話嗎？

But getting back to your first question, bold and fast has really taken root. It's -- you hear it in the halls of Etsy every single day. Is this bold, is this fast. And a little story behind that, the team pitched me in the summer of 2023 and said, we have this great idea for Gift Mode. We think it's going to be amazing. And we think we can do it great. It's going to be bold, and we propose to launch it in the big game of 2025. And Josh, if you're prepared to be bold this would be a way to do it. And I said I am prepared to be bold. I'll meet you halfway because we're going to do it in the big name of 2024.

但回到你的第一個問題，大膽和快速確實已經紮根。你每天都會在 Etsy 的大廳裡聽到這樣的聲音。這麼大膽，這麼快。這背後有一個小故事，團隊在 2023 年夏天向我推銷並說，我們有一個關於禮物模式的好主意。我們認為這將會是驚人的。我們認為我們可以做得很好。這將是大膽的，我們建議在 2025 年的大型比賽中推出它。我說我準備要大膽一點。我會在半路與你見面，因為我們將在 2024 年以盛大的名義進行這件事。

And that team built and shipped that in 4 months. And I think it's a great example. I'm proud of the work that, that team did. And as we said, it's the kick off, not the mic drop. There's now a lot more work that's going to happen to make Gift Mode better and better and better. But it's that kind of urgency and the willingness to place a bet that I think is exactly what we're talking about.

該團隊在 4 個月內建置並交付了該產品。我認為這是一個很好的例子。我為該團隊所做的工作感到自豪。正如我們所說，這是開場，而不是麥克風掉落。現在還有很多工作要做，以使禮物模式變得越來越好。但我認為我們所討論的正是這種緊迫感和下注意願。

Now a big game ad is not going to make or break the company. It works or it doesn't work. We don't do it in the next quarter, it's fine. We're not betting the company on these things. We're putting a few million extra dollars into a spot, and from that we learn. And we'll see whether we do it next year or not, but it would be predicated on having some important launch that we really want to talk about.

現在，大型遊戲廣告不會決定公司的成敗。它有效或無效。我們下個季度不會這樣做，沒關係。我們不會把公司的賭注押在這些事情上。我們額外投入了幾百萬美元，並從中學習。我們會看看明年是否會這樣做，但這將取決於我們真正想要談論的一些重要的發布。

I know we went over, but we did have one more in the queue we want to try to get to. So operator, can you give us the last one.

我知道我們已經過去了，但我們隊列中確實還有一個我們想要嘗試去的地方。接線員，您能給我們最後一張嗎？

Our final question comes from Mark Kelley with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Kelley。

My first question, and I know you touched on this a little bit in the prepared remarks, but can you just walk me through the dynamics of Easter a little bit? Is it -- was it not as much of a tailwind because it was, like, the exact last day of the quarter and maybe some shipments occurred in Q2? I guess maybe some of the dynamics there would be helpful just to start.

我的第一個問題，我知道你在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，但是你能簡單介紹一下復活節的動態嗎？是不是——這不是一個順風順水的事情，因為它恰好是本季度的最後一天，也許一些發貨發生在第二季度？我想也許其中的一些動態對於開始會有幫助。

Okay. So the headline is that it was a bigger headwind to March than we expected and an equal better tailwind to April than we expected. We obviously knew when Easter was. We obviously forecasted in, and so it was just a bigger impact than we expected. And from what I can see from others, and I can't validate this, but -- from a little data. It looks like it might have been a bigger impact for us than for other people. And the truth is we have several hypotheses as to why, but no really great data.

好的。因此，標題是，三月的逆風比我們預期的更大，而四月的順風也比我們預期的好。我們顯然知道復活節是什麼時候。我們顯然已經預測到了，所以它的影響比我們預期的要大。從我從其他人那裡看到的情況來看，我無法驗證這一點，但是——從一些數據來看。看來這對我們的影響可能比對其他人的影響更大。事實上，我們有幾個關於原因的假設，但沒有真正重要的數據。

It candidly wouldn't matter because it was a headwind to March and a tailwind to April of roughly equal and opposite size. The only reason it matters is it fell right smack between Q1 and Q2. If it was all in March, it wouldn't have mattered. So we haven't spent enormous amount of time trying to dissect something that ultimately was just a timing shift. But that's what it was.

坦白說，這並不重要，因為三月的逆風和四月的順風大小大致相等且相反。唯一重要的原因是它恰好位於第一季和第二季之間。如果這一切都發生在三月份，那就沒關係了。因此，我們並沒有花費大量時間來剖析最終只是時間轉變的事情。但事實就是如此。

I'd just add, it's not just Easter. It's spring break. And what happens when people go on spring break is they're spending money on travel instead of spending money on Etsy, and they're also traveling, so they're not shopping. And that shift, we think, had a pretty big impact, more so than we thought it would, on March. And so that's why, in a way, it's a tailwind to April because last year when they were traveling, and it was -- we get them back now because they're not traveling anymore and they're focusing on commerce.

我想補充一點，這不僅僅是復活節。現在是春假。當人們放春假時，他們會把錢花在旅行上，而不是在 Etsy 上花錢，而且他們也在旅行，所以他們不會購物。我們認為，這種轉變在三月產生了相當大的影響，比我們想像的還要大。這就是為什麼，在某種程度上，這是四月份的順風車，因為去年他們在旅行時，我們現在讓他們回來了，因為他們不再旅行了，他們專注於商業。

Also, Easter is not a huge holiday for Etsy. It's not -- I'm told -- I'm Jewish, but it's not such a huge gifting holiday. So people do buy things for their brunches and their dinners and things like that, Easter baskets and apparel for the kids and stuff like that. But it's not like a Mother's Day or a winter holiday, so to speak. So it was really more of the way we forecasted it in and the time spent shopping kind of just…

此外，復活節對 Etsy 來說並不是一個重要的節日。有人告訴我，我不是猶太人，但這不是盛大的送禮節日。所以人們確實會買早午餐和晚餐之類的東西，復活節籃子和孩子們的服裝之類的東西。但可以這麼說，這不像母親節或寒假。所以這實際上更多的是我們預測的方式，而且購物所花費的時間只是…

Yes. And then what Rachel said, the leading hypothesis of ours that travel during that period impacted this holiday more than others. And it again speaks to the macro that people are just having to make tougher choices. And if they're spending discretionary budget traveling to see the family, it's just fewer dollars. They've got to make tougher choices and they're going to just have to spend less on discretionary product.

是的。然後雷切爾所說的，我們的主要假設是，那段時期的旅行對這個假期的影響比其他假期更大。這再次向宏觀表明，人們不得不做出更艱難的選擇。如果他們花可自由支配的預算去探望家人，那隻是更少的錢。他們必須做出更艱難的選擇，並且必須減少在可自由支配產品上的支出。

Okay. All right, perfect. I appreciate you clarifying that and making you repeat yourself, sorry. Second one is just the commentary around the team building Gift Mode in 4 months. Can you talk a little bit more about just using large language models could be more efficient on the R&D side. That seems like a pretty short window and maybe what else we could think about there in the future?

好的。好吧，完美。我很感謝你澄清這一點並讓你重複一遍，抱歉。第二個只是圍繞4個月的團隊建立禮物模式的評論。您能否多談談僅使用大型語言模型可以在研發方面提高效率。這似乎是一個相當短的窗口，也許我們將來還可以考慮什麼？

Yes. Well, large language models were really helpful for Gift Mode. So for example, there are 200 different persona in Gift Mode. And then within each persona, there are 3 to 5 different gift ideas and the ability to ask large language models, what are 200 examples of persona, and it wasn't quite this simple, but it does give you a head start on that.

是的。嗯，大型語言模型對禮物模式確實很有幫助。例如，禮物模式中有 200 個不同的角色。然後在每個角色中，有 3 到 5 種不同的禮物創意，並且能夠詢問大型語言模型，200 個角色的例子是什麼，它並不那麼簡單，但它確實讓你在這方面領先了一步。

If I'm a foodie who also loves to travel, what are 3 things I might buy on Etsy, 3 different ideas for gifts on Etsy, like, it does help to come up with a lot of ideas more quickly. The productivity gains, large language models are starting to help us with coding productivity as well. But in addition to that, we talked last year about key paths and democratizing machine learning. And that work is paying off. Not all of this is large language model machine learning, but we use a lot of machine learning.

如果我是一個也喜歡旅行的美食家，我可能會在 Etsy 上買 3 種東西，在 Etsy 上有 3 種不同的禮物創意，比如，它確實有助於更快地想出很多創意。生產力的提高，大型語言模式也開始幫助我們提高編碼生產力。但除此之外，我們去年也討論了機器學習的關鍵路徑和民主化。這項工作正在得到回報。並非所有這些都是大型語言模型機器學習，但我們使用了大量機器學習。

Once we have an idea for a gift, what's the 5 very best examples of that idea amongst tens of thousands of opportunities on Etsy. We use machine learning for that. And so the democratization of machine learning has also been really helpful. We do make steady investments in allowing the teams to work more quickly and those pay off. So I am proud of the engineering culture at Etsy that allows our teams to move really quickly. We have a very entrepreneurial and really agile, really fast development culture at Etsy, and this is a great example of that.

一旦我們有了一個禮物創意，在 Etsy 上數以萬計的機會中，該創意的 5 個最佳範例是什麼？我們為此使用機器學習。因此，機器學習的民主化也確實很有幫助。我們確實進行了穩定的投資，讓團隊能夠更快地工作，並且這些投資得到了回報。因此，我為 Etsy 的工程文化感到自豪，它使我們的團隊能夠快速行動。 Etsy 擁有非常有創業精神、非常敏捷、非常快速的開發文化，這就是一個很好的例子。

Great way to end. I think -- operator, I think that's it for tonight.

很好的結束方式。我想——接線生，我想今晚就這樣了。

Thank you all.

謝謝你們。