ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Etsy's fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. I'm Deb Wasser, VP of Investor Relations.

大家好，歡迎參加 Etsy 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。

Today's prepared remarks have been prerecorded. Joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; and our new CFO, Lanny Baker, who joined us at the start of the year. Once we are finished with the presentation, Josh and Lanny will take questions from our publishing sell-side analysts on video.

今天的準備好的發言已經預先錄製好了。今天與我一起參加的是執行長 Josh Silverman；以及今年年初加入我們的新任財務長蘭尼貝克（Lanny Baker）。演示結束後，Josh 和 Lanny 將透過影片回答我們出版賣方分析師的問題。

Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance, our business, and our operating results, as noted in the slide deck posted to our website for your reference. Our actual results may differ materially.

請記住，我們今天的言論包括與我們的財務指導、我們的業務和我們的經營業績相關的前瞻性陳述，如我們網站上發布供您參考的幻燈片中所述。我們的實際結果可能會有重大差異。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, some of which are described in today's earnings release and our most recent Form 10-Q and which will be updated in future periodic reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，其中一些在今天的收益報告和我們最新的 10-Q 表中有所描述，並將在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的未來定期報告中更新。我們在本次電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務。

Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to GAAP financial measures in today's earnings press release or slide deck posted on our IR website, along with a replay of this call.

此外，在電話會議中，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標與今天的收益新聞稿或我們 IR 網站上發布的幻燈片中的 GAAP 財務指標相協調，同時還會重播本次電話會議。

With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

說完這些，我將把話題交給喬希 (Josh)。

Thanks, Deb. 2024 was a challenging year for Etsy, one where we underperformed the far higher standards we hold for ourselves as the market leader for special. We're disappointed as we know you are, and we're working with tremendous urgency and focus to inflect the trajectory of the Etsy Marketplace's GMS performance. I'm excited to tell you more about how our refreshed executive leadership team, combined with a clear strategic plan, we'll build upon the fundamental improvements we made to the Etsy customer experiences in 2024 to lean into our core differentiation even more, all with the goal to return to meaningful GMS growth.

謝謝，Deb。 2024 年對 Etsy 來說是充滿挑戰的一年，作為特殊市場領導者，我們的表現未能達到我們對自己所抱持的更高標準。正如我們知道您一樣，我們感到失望，我們正在以極大的緊迫感和專注力來改變 Etsy 市場 GMS 表現的軌跡。我很高興向大家詳細介紹我們如何在全新高管領導團隊的指導下，結合清晰的戰略計劃，在 2024 年對 Etsy 客戶體驗進行根本性改進的基礎上，進一步挖掘我們的核心差異化優勢，所有目標都是為了恢復有意義的 GMS 增長。

To recap our full year performance. Consolidated GMS was down 4% from 2023 to $12.6 billion. Strong execution enabled take rate expansion in a win-win way that provides value to our community, resulting in record revenue of $2.8 billion, up about 2% year-over-year. And we exceeded our commitment to deliver strong profitability with adjusted EBITDA of $782 million and margins of 27.8%.

回顧我們全年的表現。合併 GMS 與 2023 年相比下降 4% 至 126 億美元。強有力的執行力使得利率以雙贏的方式擴大，為我們的社區提供了價值，最終實現了創紀錄的 28 億美元收入，同比增長約 2%。我們超額完成了承諾，實現了強勁的獲利能力，調整後的 EBITDA 達到 7.82 億美元，利潤率達到 27.8%。

Recent e-commerce growth has been skewed towards those that offer low prices and fast delivery, and that's a game we're unlikely to win. We also recognize that consumers are shopping and spending their time differently, with more competition than ever for mind share. So during 2024, we challenged ourselves to zoom out, and we made some considered pivots to focus on where we can win to make Etsy truly better on the whole.

最近的電子商務成長偏向於提供低價和快速送貨的服務，而這是一場我們不太可能獲勝的比賽。我們也意識到，消費者的購物和消費方式發生了變化，爭奪心智份額的競爭比以往任何時候都更加激烈。因此，在 2024 年，我們挑戰自己，縮小差距，並進行了一些深思熟慮的調整，專注於我們能夠取勝的地方，從而使 Etsy 整體上真正變得更好。

We temporarily shifted our way of working to be less focused on near-term conversion driving experimentation in favor of creating holistically better customer experiences focused on quality, reliability and making our app a place for discovery. While this resulted in real opportunity cost to GMS to the tune of at least a few hundred million dollars last year, we believe it will be well worth it as we're now building on this improved foundation for 2025 and beyond.

我們暫時改變了工作方式，不再專注於短期轉換驅動實驗，而是專注於創造更全面的更好的客戶體驗，注重品質和可靠性，並將我們的應用打造為一個發現的地方。雖然這導致GMS在去年的實際機會成本至少達到幾億美元，但我們相信這是值得的，因為我們現在正在此基礎上為2025年及以後的發展做準備。

Etsy truly has something different and valuable to offer the world. That's certainly what we hear from so many of our buyers. We want more people to think of us more often, and to come to us to be inspired and have fun to bring Etsy front and center in their consideration set. So while others focus on cheap and fast, we are focusing on creativity, self-expression and elevating artisanal items. And while others rely on mass production and complex supply chains, we are empowering our nimble and unique seller base to thrive.

Etsy 確實為世界提供了一些與眾不同且有價值的東西。這確實是我們從很多買家那裡聽到的。我們希望更多的人能夠經常想到我們，並來到我們這裡尋求啟發和樂趣，從而使 Etsy 成為他們考慮的焦點。因此，當其他人注重廉價和快速時，我們卻注重創造力、自我表達和提升手工藝品。當其他人依賴大規模生產和複雜的供應鏈時，我們正在幫助我們靈活而獨特的賣家群體蓬勃發展。

Let me walk through how the foundation we laid in 2024 to make Etsy the starting point for special will help us to move faster in 2025. First, by dialing up Etsy's differentiation. We've often said that our selection of over 100 million unique creative goods is what truly sets us apart. It's our job to showcase the very best that Etsy sellers have to offer.

讓我來介紹一下我們在 2024 年奠定的基礎，使 Etsy 成為特殊的起點，這將如何幫助我們在 2025 年更快地發展。我們常說，我們精選了超過 1 億種獨特的創意商品，這才是我們真正與眾不同之處。我們的職責是展示 Etsy 賣家所能提供的最好的產品。

Last year, we introduced a quality score by adding indicators of high-caliber listings into our search algorithms, factors like positive reviews and on-time shipping. This is helping us move from showing you listings you're most likely to buy to surfacing ones you'll truly love by also providing sellers with actionable insights on ways they can improve their listings and customer service such that they'll rank higher in search. This work is having the intended effect, creating a race to the top dynamic.

去年，我們透過在搜尋演算法中加入高品質清單指標（例如正面評價和準時出貨等因素），引入了品質分數。這有助於我們從向您展示您最有可能購買的列表轉變為展示您真正喜歡的列表，同時還為賣家提供可行的見解，幫助他們改善列表和客戶服務，以便在搜尋中排名更高。這項工作正在產生預期的效果，形成一股競相爭先的勢頭。

Sellers took millions of actions to improve their listings, and we're observing a higher propensity for sellers to get better reviews, indicating that customers are having better purchase experiences when they visit Etsy.

賣家採取了數百萬種行動來改進他們的列表，我們觀察到賣家獲得更好評價的傾向更高，這表明客戶在訪問 Etsy 時獲得了更好的購買體驗。

In 2025, we'll make the quality score more dynamic and robust.

2025 年，我們將使品質評分更加動態和穩健。

For example, we're looking at how we might tackle higher order questions such as how unique the item is or is it priced competitively.

例如，我們正在研究如何解決更高階的問題，例如該商品的獨特性或其價格是否具有競爭力。

We're even testing an LLM that identifies the skills and level of craftmanship that goes into an item.

我們甚至正在測試法學碩士學位，以確定產品所需的技能和工藝水平。

There's no army of humans we could have hired to answer these types of questions before the advent of GenAI and advanced LLMs.

在 GenAI 和高級 LLM 出現之前，我們不可能僱用大批人力來回答這些類型的問題。

As you know, frequency has been a challenging metric for us to move.

如您所知，頻率對我們來說一直是一個具有挑戰性的指標。

We've made some progress over the years, but we're focused on doing much more to fuel purchase frequency is a key lever for growth.

這些年來我們取得了一些進展，但我們專注於做更多的事情來提高購買頻率，這是成長的關鍵槓桿。

Our 2024 work on gifting is a great example of how we built a dramatically better shopping experience to serve a frequent purchase occasion where special really matters, and it made a difference.

我們 2024 年在送禮方面的工作是一個很好的例子，說明我們如何打造出更好的購物體驗，以滿足經常購買且特殊的購買場合的需求，並且發揮了重要作用。

2024 gifting GMS outperformed site-wide GMS and gifting grew as a percentage of overall GMS.

2024 年贈送 GMS 的表現優於全站 GMS，且贈送在整體 GMS 中的百分比有所增加。

We made shopping for gifts on Etsy easier through meaningful targeted product improvements, expanded our gift card offerings, and evolved our marketing to drive awareness for gifting moments all year long.

我們透過有意義的針對性產品改進，使在 Etsy 上購買禮物變得更加容易，擴大了我們的禮品卡產品，並改進了我們的行銷方式，以全年提高人們對送禮時刻的認識。

Gifting will remain an always on focus for Etsy, ingrained within our core discovery flow.

贈送禮物將始終是 Etsy 關注的重點，並根植於我們的核心發現流程。

And in 2025, we'll highlight key gifting moments, like birthdays, anniversaries, and baby showers to drive consideration and engagement.

到 2025 年，我們將重點放在生日、週年紀念日和嬰兒送禮會等關鍵的送禮時刻，以提升考慮和參與。

This year, we'll pull from the gifting playbook to capitalize on another Quintessential Etsy cross-category purchase occasion, personalized items, which fits squarely into our place for special wheelhouse.

今年，我們將從送禮策略中汲取靈感，利用 Etsy 的另一個典型的跨類別購買場合——個性化物品，這完全符合我們的特殊要求。

Similar to gifting, Etsy is already known for being a great destination for personalized goods.

與贈送類似，Etsy 已經因購買個人化商品的絕佳去處而聞名。

About a third of buyers come to us looking for personalized items, spanning many categories and price points.

大約三分之一的買家來找我們尋找個人化物品，涵蓋多個類別和價格點。

Personalized or customized items make up roughly a third of our GMS today, and we're already experiencing strong growth in some subcategories like personalized party decor and personalized apparel, which both grew double digits in 2024.

個性化或定製商品目前約占我們 GMS 的三分之一，而且個性化派對裝飾和個性化服裝等一些子類別已實現強勁增長，2024 年這兩個類別的銷售額均實現了兩位數的增長。

Today, the personalization process on Etsy can be clunky and often very manual.

如今，Etsy 上的個人化流程非常繁瑣，而且通常需要手動操作。

So this year, our road map includes improvements to seller tools and buyer functionality.

因此今年我們的路線圖包括賣家工具和買家功能的改進。

Last fall, introduction of Etsy Insider, a loyalty program designed for occasional shoppers was also targeted at growing consideration and frequency.

去年秋天，Etsy Insider 的推出，是一個專為偶爾購物者設計的忠誠度計劃，其目標也是增加考慮度和購物頻率。

While still in closed beta mode, we've seen encouraging results on members' purchase frequency.

雖然仍處於封閉測試模式，但我們已經看到會員購買頻率方面取得了令人鼓舞的結果。

They appear to value the free shipping benefit and are meaningfully more engaged with Etsy's direct marketing content than nonmembers.

他們似乎更重視免費送貨的優惠，而且與非會員相比，他們對 Etsy 的直接行銷內容的參與度更高。

We'll continue to test, iterate, and learn as we move through 2025, particularly focused on building a successful scalable economic model.

在邁向 2025 年的過程中，我們將繼續測試、迭代和學習，特別專注於建立成功的可擴展經濟模型。

But so far, so good.

但到目前為止，一切都很好。

We're excited to see early proof points that Insider could be part of an Etsy ecosystem where our loyal customers come back to us more frequently without us having to invest marketing dollars to reengage them.

我們很高興看到早期的證據表明，Insider 可以成為 Etsy 生態系統的一部分，在這個生態系統中，我們的忠實客戶會更頻繁地回到我們身邊，而我們無需投入行銷費用來重新吸引他們。

In 2024, you saw us evolve our marketing approach to attract, retain, and engage millions of consumers around the world.

2024 年，您將看到我們改進行銷方法，以吸引、留住和吸引全球數百萬消費者。

This year, we'll focus even more heavily on efficiency and meeting our customers where they are.

今年，我們將更加重視效率並隨時隨地滿足客戶的需求。

For example, we'll dial back on linear TV and dial up our presence on connected TV and paid social.

例如，我們將減少線性電視的投入，並增加連網電視和付費社交的投入。

And the system we built last year to more efficiently segment product listing ads will now incorporate ML models to further improve our ability to showcase quality and drive more sales.

我們去年建立的更有效細分產品清單廣告的系統現在將結合機器學習模型，以進一步提高我們展示優質產品和推動更多銷售的能力。

We also have big plans to expand the relevance and reach of our owned channels, specifically push and e-mail, again, using ML to get better at sending buyers the right nudge on the right channel at the right time.

我們還制定了宏偉計劃，以擴大我們自有管道的相關性和影響力，特別是推送和電子郵件，再次使用機器學習來更好地在正確的時間透過正確的管道向買家發送正確的推送。

The other major way that we're anchoring to being the starting point for special is by powering discovery and inspiration, building a stickier ecosystem to keep buyers engaged starting with the Buy on Etsy App.

我們致力於成為特殊起點的另一個主要方式是推動發現和靈感，建立一個更具黏性的生態系統，以保持買家的參與度，從 Etsy 應用程式購買開始。

The app is our highest converting channel and accounts for just over 40% of our Marketplace GMS, yet only makes up about 25% of total visits today.

應用程式是我們轉換率最高的管道，占我們市場 GMS 的 40% 多一點，但目前僅佔總訪問量的 25% 左右。

We estimate that getting Etsy's app penetration in line with our peers represents up to $1 billion GMS opportunity.

我們估計，如果 Etsy 的應用程式普及率能與我們的同行保持一致，那麼將帶來高達 10 億美元的 GMS 機會。

Last year, we optimized screen real estate by consolidating pick up the thread content that's based on past missions, prototyped discovery-driven services and enhanced ML models with richer buying signals.

去年，我們透過整合基於過去任務的線索內容、原型發現驅動服務和具有更豐富購買訊號的增強型 ML 模型來優化螢幕空間。

We're now launching an entirely revamped navigation, featuring our All-new Shop tab which leans heavily into discovery with browsable inspiration-rich content designed to better showcase the incredible possibilities that Etsy has to offer.

我們現在推出了一個完全改版的導航系統，其中包括我們的全新商店標籤，它主要側重於發現，提供可瀏覽的、富有靈感的內容，旨在更好地展示 Etsy 提供的令人難以置信的可能性。

Why are we so focused on powering discovery and inspiration?

為什麼我們如此重視推動發現和靈感？

It's really the start of a fundamental shift in how we interact and engage with our buyers, creating a powerful flywheel designed to elevate the entire Etsy experience.

這實際上是我們與買家互動和交流方式的根本性轉變的開始，創造了一個強大的飛輪，旨在提升整個 Etsy 體驗。

As our services become more browsable and engaging, we can capture an order of magnitude more data about our buyers' interests, in and habits, both collectively and individually.

隨著我們的服務變得更加易於瀏覽和更具吸引力，我們可以捕獲有關買家興趣和習慣的更多數據，包括集體和個人數據。

For example, what did you hover on?

例如，你將滑鼠懸停在什麼上面？

What did you swipe past quickly?

你快速刷過了什麼？

Which images did you choose to enlarge?

您選擇放大哪些影像？

Historically, we've been focused on spearfishing, optimizing to quickly get you to what you want and then show you similar things.

從歷史上看，我們一直專注於魚叉式搜索，透過優化讓您快速找到您想要的東西，然後向您展示類似的東西。

The signals we get from spearfishing are powerful and show high intent, like what did you favorite?

我們從魚叉捕魚中獲得的訊號非常強烈，顯示出很高的意圖，例如你最喜歡什麼？

And what did you actually buy?

您實際上買了什麼？

But they're quite scarce compared to what we can learn from browsing behaviors.

但與我們從瀏覽行為中了解到的資訊相比，這些資訊相當少。

By gathering more about what sparks your interest, we'll be better positioned to delight you when you're ready to buy.

透過更多地了解您的興趣所在，我們將能夠在您準備購買時為您提供更好的服務。

With Discovery Forward services, we're dramatically expanding the signals we collect.

利用 Discovery Forward 服務，我們大幅擴展了收集的訊號。

This richer data fuels our ability to build even more powerful models, leveraging the revolutionary power of LLMs to better predict buyer preferences and understand their intent with unprecedented accuracy, which then leads to the core of the flywheel creating more personalized experiences like window shopping in a store curated just for you.

這些更豐富的數據增強了我們建立更強大模型的能力，利用 LLM 的革命性力量來更好地預測買家偏好，並以前所未有的精度了解他們的意圖，從而引領飛輪的核心創造出更個性化的體驗，例如在專為您精心策劃的商店裡櫥窗購物。

That's the experience we envision for our evolved services, driven by the insights from our powerful models.

這是我們為不斷發展的服務所設想的體驗，由我們強大模型的洞察力所驅動。

As the flywheel spins, these personalized experiences become even more refined and engaging.

隨著飛輪的旋轉，這些個人化的體驗變得更加精緻和引人入勝。

A critical offshoot of this flywheel is the ability to create more tailored marketing.

這個飛輪的一個重要分支是創造更客製化的行銷的能力。

By leveraging these vast data sets and powerful LLMs, we expect to be able to generate more effective and personalized marketing strategies across all channels from e-mail and CRM to push notifications, and that will land buyers on our highly browsable experiences.

透過利用這些龐大的資料集和強大的 LLM，我們希望能夠在從電子郵件和 CRM 到推播通知的所有管道中產生更有效和個人化的行銷策略，並讓買家獲得我們高度可瀏覽的體驗。

All of this reflects a fundamental shift in how we're working to get consumers to come and return to Etsy's evolving an ever more personalized and resonant surfaces.

所有這些都反映了我們努力讓消費者光臨並重返 Etsy 的方式的根本轉變，即不斷改進其更個性化和引起共鳴的介面。

Everything we're working on is in service of better buyer experiences and helping our sellers to grow.

我們所做的一切都是為了改善買家體驗並幫助我們的賣家成長。

It's important to highlight that in today's highly commoditized world of e-commerce, Etsy sellers and their items are the foundation of what makes us special.

值得強調的是，在當今高度商品化的電子商務世界中，Etsy 賣家及其商品是我們與眾不同的基礎。

In fact, in our recent seller census results, which you'll find in our 10-K, show that nine out of 10 Etsy sellers are one-person businesses, nearly all work from home. eight out of 10 are women and half sell exclusively on Etsy.

事實上，您可以在我們的 10-K 中看到，我們最近的賣家普查結果顯示，十分之九的 Etsy 賣家都是一人企業，幾乎所有人都在家工作。其中八成是女性，一半專門在 Etsy 上銷售商品。

As intended and expected, our new seller setup fee, combined with enhanced trust and safety efforts, resulted in a decline in active sellers last year.

正如預期的那樣，我們新的賣家設定費，加上加強的信任和安全措施，導致去年活躍賣家數量下降。

However, the result is a healthier seller base, evidenced by the higher percentage who are making sales, demonstrating our commitment to their success, and we have a lot more in store in 2025.

然而，結果是賣家基礎更健康，銷售比例更高就是明證，這也顯示了我們致力於他們的成功，而且我們在 2025 年還準備好做更多的事情。

Turning to Depop, which represented a strong growth tailwind in 2024, with GMS up nearly 32% year-over-year to $789 million.

談到 Depop，它代表了 2024 年強勁的成長順風，GMS 年比成長近 32% 至 7.89 億美元。

Depop's fourth quarter represented the highest year-over-year GMS growth since our acquisition.

Depop 第四季的 GMS 年成長率創下了我們收購以來的最高水準。

Depop's full year GMS growth in the US was outstanding, up about 60% year-over-year, making Depop the fastest-growing US fashion resale player.

Depop 在美國全年 GMS 成長表現出色，年成長約 60%，使 Depop 成為美國成長最快的時尚轉售公司。

We've captured a winning formula, blending cultural apparel trends with the individuality and self-expression that resonates with the younger generation, all while enhancing the product to more effectively match buyer intent with seller supply.

我們找到了成功的秘訣，將文化服裝潮流與年輕一代產生共鳴的個性和自我表達相融合，同時增強產品，更有效地將買家意圖與賣家供應相匹配。

Depop is offering great prices for buyers and sellers at a time when that matters a lot.

在這個至關重要的時刻，Depop 為買家和賣家提供了極好的價格。

Etsy's new President and Chief Growth Officer, Kruti Patel Goel, is working to fill her Depop CEO seat while transitioning back to Etsy.

Etsy 的新任總裁兼首席成長長 Kruti Patel Goel 正在努力填補 Depop 執行長的職位，同時回歸 Etsy。

Reverb's GMS was down 2.6% year-over-year, landing at about $918 million for 2024.

Reverb 的 GMS 年減 2.6%，2024 年約為 9.18 億美元。

Reverb continues to perform slightly better than the musical instrument industry as the team has done an admirable job navigating through challenging industry headwinds, leveraging their tremendous, differentiated inventory, and building a thriving circular economy for music care, all while improving profitability.

Reverb 的表現繼續略好於樂器行業，因為團隊在應對行業挑戰方面做得非常出色，利用其巨大的差異化庫存，為音樂護理打造一個蓬勃發展的循環經濟，同時提高盈利能力。

Reverb leaned into wallet-friendly options, like with the launch of the Reverb Outlet, contributing to double-digit percentage growth in that segment in 2024.

Reverb 傾向於採用經濟實惠的選擇，例如推出 Reverb Outlet，這將推動該領域在 2024 年實現兩位數的百分比成長。

2025 marks Etsy's 20th anniversary, our Etsyversary.

2025 年是 Etsy 成立 20 週年，也就是我們的 Etsyversary。

For the past two decades, Etsy has been the home for creativity and self-expression.

在過去的二十年裡，Etsy 一直是創造力和自我表達的家。

As I look ahead to what's in store, I feel deep conviction in the power of our brand, Etsy's millions of incredible sellers and our strong team.

當我展望商店的未來時，我對我們的品牌、Etsy 數百萬優秀賣家和我們強大團隊的力量深信不疑。

Starting with Kruti who brings vast experience building and scaling critical growth strategies and a deep commitment to Etsy's mission and community of passionate buyers and sellers.

首先是 Kruti，他在製定和擴展關鍵成長策略方面擁有豐富的經驗，並對 Etsy 的使命和熱情買家和賣家社群有著堅定的承諾。

I've long admired Kruti's customer-centric approach to leadership and I'm excited about where she'll make her mark.

我一直很欽佩 Kruti 以客戶為中心的領導方式，並對她未來的發展充滿期待。

Lanny is only seven weeks into the CFO job, and I'm thrilled with our choice.

蘭尼擔任財務長僅七週，我對我們的選擇感到非常高興。

His critical thinking, deep toolkit of Marketplace operational and financial expertise and tremendous fit with our culture, have made him an ideal partner.

他的批判性思維、深厚的市場運營和財務專業知識以及與我們文化的高度契合，使他成為理想的合作夥伴。

And Brad Miner, who we elevated the Chief Marketing Officer, is seamlessly evolving our marketing strategies in 2025.

我們提拔為首席行銷長的布拉德·邁納 (Brad Miner) 正在無縫推進我們的 2025 年行銷策略。

We kicked off our CTO search with two strong internal leaders sharing the seat on an interim basis.

我們啟動了 CTO 搜尋工作，由兩位強大的內部領導者暫時分享這個職位。

They and the rest of our team are optimistically charging forward to make Etsy better and to keep commerce human.

他們和我們團隊的其他成員正樂觀地向前邁進，使 Etsy 變得更好，並保持商業人性化。

With that, I'll turn it over to Lanny.

說完這些，我會把話題交給 Lanny。

Thank you, Josh, and thanks to everyone for joining our fourth quarter call.

謝謝你，喬希，也謝謝大家參加我們的第四季電話會議。

Before I dive into the results, let me start by saying how excited I am to be here.

在深入討論結果之前，我首先想說一下我對來到這裡感到非常興奮。

As a student of digital Marketplaces, I have always admired Etsy's brand, business model, and leadership team.

身為數位市場的學生，我一直很欽佩 Etsy 的品牌、商業模式和領導團隊。

I am a habitual Etsy shopper myself, ever since my first purchase of a handmade leather computer bag nearly 10 years ago.

我自己就是 Etsy 的常客，自從近 10 年前我第一次購買手工製作的皮革電腦包以來。

I am thrilled to join Etsy at this pivotal time.

我很高興在這個關鍵時刻加入 Etsy。

This company has a history of sharp strategic execution.

該公司有著敏銳的策略執行力的歷史。

From 2017 to early 2020, Josh and the team led a transformation to establish Etsy's demand-centric business model which drove a reinvigorated growth and a stair step in profitability.

從 2017 年到 2020 年初，Josh 和團隊領導了一場轉型，建立了 Etsy 以需求為中心的商業模式，推動了公司重新煥發活力，並逐步提高了盈利能力。

Then from 2020 to 2024, Etsy successfully navigated another extraordinary period with seamless execution, exiting the pandemic, maintaining much greater consumer scale and take rate efficiency.

隨後從 2020 年到 2024 年，Etsy 憑藉無縫的執行成功度過了又一個非凡時期，擺脫了疫情，保持了更大的消費者規模和接受率效率。

And right now, accelerating advancements in ML and AI are redefining the technological landscape and creating new opportunities for those poised and driven to take advantage.

目前，機器學習和人工智慧的加速進步正在重新定義技術格局，並為那些準備好並有動力利用這些優勢的人創造新的機會。

With Etsy's strong track record, our brand, scale, and talented team, I strongly believe we are well positioned to harness new technologies and make Etsy ever more clearly differentiated, a vastly better place to shop, and to drive growth in the long term.

憑藉 Etsy 的良好業績、我們的品牌、規模和才華橫溢的團隊，我堅信我們有能力利用新技術，使 Etsy 更具差異化，成為一個更好的購物場所，並推動長期成長。

Etsy delivered approximately $3.7 billion in consolidated GMS in the fourth quarter, down 6.8% year-over-year.

Etsy 第四季的合併 GMS 約為 37 億美元，年減 6.8%。

GMS in the core Etsy Marketplace declined 8.6% year-over-year, leading to softer-than-anticipated consolidated GMS.

核心 Etsy 市場的 GMS 年減 8.6%，導致合併 GMS 低於預期。

As discussed earlier, this was partially driven by our decision to prioritize longer-term initiatives over shorter-term growth combined with a shorter holiday shopping period.

正如前面所討論的，這在一定程度上是由於我們決定優先考慮長期計劃而不是短期增長，再加上假日購物期較短。

I do want to highlight Depop's strong top line performance, which Josh mentioned as it represented a very nice tailwind to Q4 consolidated GMS.

我確實想強調 Depop 強勁的營收表現，Josh 提到這一點是因為它對第四季度合併 GMS 產生了非常好的推動作用。

Although consolidated GMS declined in the fourth quarter, consolidated revenue increased 1.2% year-over-year to a record $852 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew to an all-time quarterly high of $251 million, up 6% from the prior year.

儘管第四季合併 GMS 有所下降，但合併收入年增 1.2%，達到創紀錄的 8.52 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長至季度歷史新高 2.51 億美元，比上年增長 6%。

Within that revenue performance, consolidated Marketplace revenue declined 1.4% due to lower GMS, which pressured transaction revenue, partially offset by higher consolidated payments revenue as well as revenue from the new seller onboarding fee.

在該收入表現中，綜合市場收入下降 1.4%，原因是 GMS 下降，給交易收入帶來壓力，但綜合支付收入和新賣家入會費收入的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

Services revenue was once again a key contributor to performance, increasing 8.1% year-over-year.

服務收入再次成為績效的主要貢獻者，較去年同期成長8.1%。

The take rate bridge on the left shows Etsy Ads as a primary driver of this strength where improved ad relevancy and optimized bidding by giving us the ability to deploy more of sellers' budgets and deliver attractive return on ad spend to sellers in the process.

左側的收費率橋顯示 Etsy Ads 是這一優勢的主要驅動力，透過使我們能夠部署更多的賣家預算並在此過程中為賣家提供有吸引力的廣告支出回報，提高了廣告相關性並優化了競價。

All in all, Etsy delivered a consolidated fourth quarter take rate of 22.8%, ahead of our outlook, driven by the aforementioned contributions, solid take rate expansion in Etsy Ads, consolidated payments expansion, including for both Etsy and Depop, and incremental revenue from the seller onboarding fee.

總體而言，Etsy 第四季的綜合收費率為 22.8%，高於我們的預期，這得益於上述貢獻、Etsy Ads 的穩定收費率擴張、包括 Etsy 和 Depop 在內的綜合支付擴張以及賣家入會費的增量收入。

Fourth quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 29.4%, above the outlook of 28% to 29% and roughly 140 basis points higher than last year.

第四季綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 29.4%，高於預期的 28% 至 29%，比去年同期高出約 140 個基點。

The primary source of that improvement was gross margin leverage at the Etsy Marketplace, where a lower rate of fraudulent activity led to a meaningful decrease in the variable cost of revenue in the quarter.

這種改善的主要來源是 Etsy 市場的毛利率槓桿，其中較低的詐欺活動率導致本季的收入變動成本大幅下降。

I think it's encouraging to see Etsy deliver healthy bottom line performance in what was a challenging quarter for GMS.

我認為，看到 Etsy 在對 GMS 來說充滿挑戰的季度中實現健康的盈利業績是令人鼓舞的。

During the fourth quarter, consolidated product development spend decreased 5% year-over-year to $111 million.

第四季度，綜合產品開發支出較去年同期下降 5% 至 1.11 億美元。

We gained leverage on a full year basis with consolidated product development spend as a percentage of revenue declining to 15.8% in 2024 compared to 17.1% in the prior year, primarily reflecting the reorganization undertaken in late 2023.

我們在全年基礎上獲得了槓桿作用，綜合產品開發支出佔收入的百分比從上年的 17.1% 下降到 2024 年的 15.8%，這主要反映了 2023 年底進行的重組。

Fourth quarter consolidated marketing spend increased 9% year-over-year to $285 million, which drove total marketing spend as a percentage of revenue to 33.5% in Q4.

第四季綜合行銷支出年增 9% 至 2.85 億美元，這使得第四季總行銷支出佔營收的百分比達到 33.5%。

The company pulled back a bit on brand spend versus the prior year and increased investment in paid social, while continuing to execute across other performance channels.

與去年相比，該公司略微減少了品牌支出，並增加了對付費社交的投資，同時繼續在其他績效管道上執行。

For the full year, consolidated marketing spend increased 13% year-over-year and consolidated marketing spend as a percentage of revenue increased to 30.5%.

全年綜合行銷支出較去年同期成長13%，綜合行銷支出佔營收的比例成長至30.5%。

Turning to Etsy Marketplace buyer metrics.

轉向 Etsy 市場買家指標。

As a longtime observer, I'm frankly in all of the way Etsy has driven buyer acquisition over time.

作為一名長期觀察者，我坦率地表示，Etsy 長期以來一直在推動買家獲取。

And while Etsy obviously had an outsized influx of buyers during the pandemic, the ability to continuously find new buyer channels, reactivate large pools of lapsed buyers and create stickiness with existing buyers is no small feat and provides enormous value to our sellers.

儘管 Etsy 在疫情期間顯然有大量買家湧入，但能夠不斷找到新的買家管道、重新激活大量流失的買家並與現有買家建立粘性絕非易事，並為我們的賣家提供了巨大的價值。

To that point, the Etsy Marketplace ended the year with nearly 90 million active buyers, still close to record levels.

截至目前，Etsy 市場在年底的活躍買家數量已接近 9,000 萬，仍接近歷史最高水準。

One of the silver linings in 2024 was the continued reactivation of lapsed buyers, nearly 29 million for the year and nearly 10 million in the fourth quarter alone.

2024 年的一大希望是流失買家將繼續被重新激活，全年流失買家數量接近 2900 萬，僅第四季度就接近 1000 萬。

Mid-funnel and other paid social marketing channels are working well as a tap on the shoulder, reminding buyers to come back to Etsy.

漏斗中間部分和其他付費社群行銷管道發揮良好的作用，可以提醒買家回到 Etsy。

And while fourth quarter new buyer acquisition declined year-over-year, Etsy acquired 7 million buyers globally and 24 million for the year who had never shopped on the Marketplace before.

儘管第四季新買家數量年減，但 Etsy 在全球仍吸引了 700 萬買家，全年吸引了 2,400 萬從未在 Marketplace 上購物的買家。

In terms of geographic performance, in our appendix slides and the 10-K, you will see that we have transitioned to a new view of US versus non-US GMS performance.

就地理表現而言，在我們的附錄投影片和 10-K 中，您將看到我們已經轉變為對美國與非美國 GMS 表現的新視角。

This updated disclosure is based solely on where the buyer is located, rather than our prior definition which took into consideration the location of both the buyer and the seller.

此次更新的揭露完全基於買方所在地，而不是我們之前同時考慮買方和賣方所在地的定義。

US buyers represented 74% of full year GMS in 2024 and 75% in the fourth quarter.

美國買家佔 2024 年全年 GMS 的 74%，第四季佔 75%。

And non-US buyers accounted for 26% and 25%, respectively.

而非美國買家分別佔26%和25%。

Looking forward, we believe this view will provide a clearer picture of our success in attracting international buyers and growing non-US buyer GMS over time.

展望未來，我們相信這種觀點將更清晰地描繪出我們在吸引國際買家和不斷增長的非美國買家 GMS 方面取得的成功。

In the fourth quarter, on a year-over-year basis, non-US buyer GMS underperformed US buyer GMS underscoring the unfavorable macro environment in many of Etsy's Marketplaces in international geographies.

第四季度，與去年同期相比，非美國買家 GMS 的表現不如美國買家 GMS，凸顯了 Etsy 在國際地區的許多市場宏觀環境不利。

Our GMS per active buyer, which is a trailing 12-month figure was $121, down 3.5% year-over-year.

我們每位活躍買家的 GMS（過去 12 個月的數據）為 121 美元，年減 3.5%。

And in a continuation of the trend throughout 2024, lower household income buyers underperformed relative to higher household income buyers.

這一趨勢將持續到 2024 年，低家庭收入買家的表現優於高家庭收入買家。

While at these top categories experienced softness in the fourth quarter, we saw growth in some subcategories like personalized clothing and vintage jewelry.

雖然這些頂級類別在第四季度經歷了疲軟，但我們看到個性化服裝和古董珠寶等一些子類別有所增長。

These are classic examples of what buyers come to us for.

這些都是買家來找我們的原因的典型例子。

These nuggets give us conviction in the work that Josh described earlier to highlight purchase occasions and to deepen item attributes, which is meant to unlock new and exciting buyer discovery journeys within our many millions of items.

這些要點讓我們對 Josh 先前描述的工作充滿信心，即突出購買場合並深化商品屬性，這是為了在我們的數百萬件商品中解鎖新的和令人興奮的買家發現之旅。

Moving now to the balance sheet.

現在轉到資產負債表。

As of December 31, Etsy had $1.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments.

截至 12 月 31 日，Etsy 擁有 12 億美元現金、現金等價物以及短期和長期投資。

During the fourth quarter, Etsy repurchased a total of $260 million in stock.

第四季度，Etsy 共回購了價值 2.6 億美元的股票。

And at year-end, we had an additional $1 billion available under our newer Board authorization.

截至年底，根據董事會的最新授權，我們還有額外的 10 億美元可用。

Etsy generated over $780 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2024, converting approximately 90% of that to free cash flow, a portion of which the company deployed to reduce the outstanding share count by 12.2 million shares over the course of the year.

Etsy 在 2024 年創造了超過 7.8 億美元的調整後 EBITDA，其中約 90% 轉化為自由現金流，公司利用其中的一部分在一年內減少了 1220 萬股的流通股。

Turning to our outlook and starting with the first quarter of 2025.

展望未來，從 2025 年第一季開始。

We currently anticipate that first quarter consolidated GMS will decline at a rate similar to the year-over-year performance reported for the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們目前預計，第一季合併 GMS 將以與 2024 年第四季同比表現類似的速度下降。

In a typical first quarter, we would expect to gain significant benefit from GMS attributable to prior year product launches.

在典型的第一季度，我們預計由於前一年推出的產品，GMS 將帶來巨大收益。

And that's less of a factor this year due to the shift in our product investment strategy last year.

由於去年我們產品投資策略的轉變，今年這個問題不再那麼重要。

We've seen some bright spots in the quarter so far, including encouraging Valentine's Day and related gifting performance.

到目前為止，我們已經看到了本季的一些亮點，包括令人鼓舞的情人節和相關禮品表現。

Collectively, our subsidiaries are expected to provide a tailwind to consolidated GMS growth in the first quarter.

總體而言，預計我們的子公司將為第一季的綜合 GMS 成長提供助力。

We expect Q1 2025 take rate to be approximately 23% due to the benefit of ad product improvements, payments expansion and the seller onboarding fee we initiated in 2024.

我們預計 2025 年第一季的收費率將達到約 23%，這得益於廣告產品的改進、支付範圍的擴大以及我們在 2024 年啟動的賣家入會費。

We currently anticipate our first quarter 2025 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will be approximately 25% to 26%.

我們目前預計 2025 年第一季綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將約為 25% 至 26%。

While we aren't ready to provide a specific consolidated GMS outlook for the full year, I want to point out a few factors that we believe should position the Etsy Marketplace for improved GMS performance beyond the first quarter.

雖然我們還沒有準備好提供全年具體的綜合 GMS 前景，但我想指出一些因素，我們認為這些因素應該會使 Etsy 市場在第一季後的 GMS 表現有所改善。

First and most obviously, the comparisons get easier in the second half of the year.

首先，最明顯的是，今年下半年的比較變得更容易了。

Second, we expect to move beyond the opportunity cost phase of our 2024 product development shift with the benefits of investments in our foundation and in the Etsy shopping experience emerging over time.

其次，我們預計將超越 2024 年產品開發轉變的機會成本階段，隨著時間的推移，我們的基礎和 Etsy 購物體驗的投資收益將逐漸顯現。

And third, our 2025 product development plan is rebalanced to accelerate the velocity of product experimentation that has historically driven incremental near-term GMS impact.

第三，我們重新平衡了 2025 年產品開發計劃，以加快產品實驗的速度，這在歷史上推動了近期 GMS 的增量影響。

While we continue to push forward the longer-term priorities we've discussed.

我們將繼續推進我們討論過的長期優先事項。

Given our desire to fund an ambitious product development pipeline, including some incremental hiring in AI and ML, we're planning for modest deleverage in consolidated product development spending this year.

鑑於我們希望資助雄心勃勃的產品開發管道，包括在人工智慧和機器學習領域增加一些招聘，我們計劃今年在合併產品開發支出方面適度去槓桿。

Meanwhile, it's our current intention to keep consolidated marketing spend as a percentage of revenue fairly constant on a year-over-year basis in 2025.

同時，我們目前的目標是到 2025 年，維持綜合行銷支出佔收入的百分比與去年同期相比保持相當穩定。

We'll be making certain spending reallocations and remaining very ROI-driven, seeking efficiencies to drive GMS.

我們將進行某些支出的重新分配，並繼續以投資回報率為導向，尋求提高效率來推動 GMS。

Putting those pieces together with Etsy Marketplace GMS positioned to improve as we move through 2025, we would expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be stronger in the second half of the year than in the first half, consistent with what we've seen in prior years.

綜合考慮這些因素，再加上 Etsy Marketplace GMS 在 2025 年即將改善的前景，我們預計今年下半年的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將高於上半年，與前幾年的情況一致。

We are committed to maintaining strong bottom line performance and generating healthy free cash flow while also investing in the things which will further differentiate Etsy which will build our opportunity and drive long-term growth.

我們致力於保持強勁的底線業績並產生健康的自由現金流，同時投資於能夠進一步使 Etsy 與眾不同的事物，這將創造我們的機會並推動長期成長。

Thank you all for your time today.

感謝大家今天的寶貴時間。

It's truly a pleasure to be here, and I'm excited to help Etsy get to this next phase of growth and success.

我真的很高興來到這裡，我很高興能夠幫助 Etsy 進入下一個發展和成功的階段。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to the operator.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）埃里克·謝裡丹（Eric Sheridan），高盛。

Thank you so much for taking the question.

非常感謝您回答這個問題。

I wanted to follow up on the key learnings from your marketing initiatives in 2024 and how they inform the shifts in where you plan on spending marketing dollars by channel in 2025?

我想跟進您在 2024 年行銷計劃中獲得的主要經驗，以及它們如何影響您在 2025 年計劃按渠道投入營銷資金的變化？

And the second part of it would just be teasing out how to think about the return profile that spend is I think Lanny's comments right there at the end, imply a little bit more variability of return on marketing as you get into the second half of 2025?

第二部分只是闡明如何考慮支出的回報狀況，我認為 Lanny 在最後的評論暗示到 2025 年下半年，行銷回報的變化會更大一些？

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Yes.

是的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for the question.

感謝您的提問。

I'm going to walk through the funnel, if I may, on that.

如果可以的話，我將對此進行深入討論。

So at the top of the funnel with more brand campaigns.

因此，在漏斗的頂端會有更多的品牌活動。

We're really following our customers where they are shifting away from linear TV towards more things like DIRECTV, connected TV and things like YouTube TV, places like that.

我們一直在關注我們的客戶，他們正在從線性電視轉向更多的電視，例如 DIRECTV、連網電視和 YouTube 電視之類的東西。

In the mid funnel, I think there's a huge opportunity for us.

我認為，在中端市場中，我們有巨大的機會。

And what we mean by that is people who, for example, are planning a wedding, having a baby, moving home but haven't yet figured out the very, very specific item that they need to buy.

我們的意思是，人們正在計劃婚禮、生孩子、搬家，但還沒有想好要買什麼具體的物品。

That, I think, is a huge opportunity for us and really ties into the more browsable surfaces that I talked about in the recorded call.

我認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，並且與我在錄音電話中談到的更多可瀏覽的表面真正相關。

So we made investments in that in 2024, where we're really starting to lean in and learn how to make those profitable channels.

因此，我們在 2024 年對此進行了投資，我們真正開始投入並學習如何建立這些獲利管道。

As you know, we call it R&D.

正如您所知，我們稱之為研發。

We lean into channels and we test what creative is going to work and what feed strategy and what landing page.

我們依靠管道來測試哪些創意可行、哪些資訊推播策略可行、哪些登陸頁面可行。

And as those things become ROI positive, we're able to lean more and more into them.

隨著這些項目的投資報酬率變成正值，我們就能越來越依賴它們。

So that work, we kicked off a lot of R&D on that in 2024, that's going to continue in 2025 that I think is really important.

因此，我們在 2024 年啟動了大量研發工作，並將在 2025 年繼續進行，我認為這非常重要。

And it really does tie to the more browsable surfaces as better landing pages.

而且它確實將更多可瀏覽的表面與更好的著陸頁聯繫起來。

At the bottom of the funnel, which is where most of our spend is, we've -- we're making a lot of investments in better ML to be able to help places like Google and Facebook know which items to surface.

在漏斗的底部，也就是我們花費最多的地方，我們在更好的機器學習方面投入了大量資金，以便能夠幫助Google和 Facebook 等公司知道應該展示哪些項目。

And that really ties very well to the quality initiatives we've been talking about for some time to make sure that the items we're paying to promote in places like Google and Facebook are actually the best of Etsy that represent Etsy the best and are most likely to convert.

這與我們一段時間以來一直在談論的品質舉措密切相關，以確保我們在 Google 和 Facebook 等地方付費推廣的商品實際上是 Etsy 最好的商品，最能代表 Etsy，而且最有可能轉化。

It turns out that we can add a lot of value even to their tech based on what we know using better AI and ML.

事實證明，我們甚至可以利用更好的 AI 和 ML 為他們的技術增加很多價值。

So I see opportunity to optimize even further in the PLA side of the business and then move up the consideration funnel in the mid-funnel and the upper funnel.

因此，我看到了在業務的 PLA 方面進一步優化的機會，然後將考慮漏斗提升到中部漏斗和上部漏斗。

So people think to come to Etsy earlier.

所以人們想到早點來 Etsy。

And I think over time, that can create a really fundamental shift in customer behavior for Etsy that's going to be very positive for us.

我認為隨著時間的推移，這會真正從根本上改變 Etsy 的客戶行為，這對我們非常有利。

.

。

Eric, you asked a little bit about our expectations for the full year on marketing spending.

艾瑞克，您問了一點關於我們對全年行銷支出的預期。

And as we said, we plan to keep marketing spending right now about at the same range as a proportion of revenue as a percentage of revenue as we did last year.

正如我們所說，我們計劃將目前的行銷支出佔收入的比例保持在與去年相同的範圍內。

But we run our marketing very much to an ROI.

但我們的行銷主要考慮投資報酬率。

And if we -- as we're able to improve the ROI, we can step up the marketing spending, and we'll do that as we've done in the past.

如果我們能夠提高投資報酬率，我們就可以增加行銷支出，我們會像過去一樣這樣做。

So your question about variability this year, we've told you what we expect it to be for the full year and we'll be working hard to drive improvements in ROI.

關於您今年變化的問題，我們已經告訴您我們對全年變化的預期，我們將努力提高投資回報。

And as we do, we'll be able to spend more.

當我們這樣做的時候，我們將能夠支出更多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Youssef Squali, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Youssef Squali。

Awesome.

驚人的。

Thank you, guys, for taking the question.

謝謝大家回答這個問題。

So I have two and Lanny, it's great seeing you again.

所以我有兩個，Lanny，很高興再次見到你。

So maybe, Josh, just may be a little repetitive with your prepared remarks, but I think it's important to double click on it.

所以，喬希，也許你準備好的發言可能有些重複，但我認為仔細思考一下是很重要的。

But down the first quarter, what are the two or three main factors you believe should position the Etsy Marketplace for improved GMS performance?

但在第一季度，您認為哪兩個或三個主要因素可以推動 Etsy 市場提高 GMS 業績？

And would you anticipate return to GMS growth by year-end, which is a -- one of the key questions a lot of people have?

您是否預計大湄公河次區域 (GMS) 年底前將恢復成長？

And then I guess, Lanny can you -- the active seller count was down 10%?

然後我想，Lanny 你能嗎 - 活躍賣家數量下降了 10％？

Maybe can you talk about the type of merchants, you'd have been losing there?

您能談談您在那裡會損失哪些類型的商家嗎？

How much of a priority is growth in that metric?

在這項指標中，成長的優先程度有多高？

And can you maybe get back to positive GMS growth without growth in active sellers?

如果活躍賣家沒有成長，您還能恢復 GMS 正成長嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I'll take the first question.

我來回答第一個問題。

We haven't given a full year guide.

我們還沒有提供全年指南。

But we did say we have reason for optimism that things will improve after the first quarter.

但我們確實說過，我們有理由樂觀地認為第一季後情況會有所改善。

And let me talk about at least two reasons why I believe that to be true.

讓我來談談我相信這一事實的至少兩個原因。

First, as we talked about a lot last year, we made some intentional pivots to shift many of our product development squads away from their traditional work on near-term GMS driving conversion to shift to more holistic tracks of work that really uplift and differentiate the Etsy customer experience.

首先，正如我們去年多次談論的那樣，我們進行了有意的調整，將許多產品開發團隊從傳統的短期 GMS 推動轉換工作轉向更全面的工作軌道，真正提升和區分 Etsy 客戶體驗。

We think that's been very important and foundational.

我們認為這是非常重要且有基礎的。

We think that sets Etsy up much better for the future.

我們認為這將為 Etsy 的未來奠定更好的基礎。

I'm really happy we did it.

我很高興我們做到了。

And we believe we felt the opportunity cost of at least a few hundred million dollars of GMS that, that would have been producing driving growth through the fourth quarter and actually into the first quarter and beyond.

我們認為，至少幾億美元的 GMS 機會成本本來可以推動第四季、第一季及以後的成長。

So normally in the first quarter of the year, we're feeling the tailwinds from the GMS driving work that the team had been doing in the prior few quarters.

因此，通常在今年第一季度，我們就會感受到團隊在前幾個季度開展的 GMS 驅動工作的順風。

Since the teams last year were focused for much of the year on these more holistic experiences, that means we're not feeling that tailwind right now.

由於去年團隊大部分時間都專注於這些更全面的體驗，這意味著我們現在感受不到順風。

But we do feel like these more holistic experiences ought to be yielding GMS benefits over time as customers have better experiences.

但我們確實覺得，隨著客戶體驗的改善，這些更全面的體驗應該會隨著時間的推移為 GMS 帶來好處。

For example, one of the things I shared in the call is a higher percentage of purchases are resulting in 5-star reviews right now because we're putting our very best sellers and their very best items in front of our buyers, we feel like that ought to be yielding benefit.

例如，我在電話會議中分享的一件事是，目前更高比例的購買獲得了五星級評價，因為我們將最暢銷的產品和最好的產品放在買家面前，我們覺得這應該會產生好處。

And as we now are entering 2025, we're shifting some of our product development efforts back to these very intentional near-term GMS driving work that we've historically been very good at, so we'll have a more balanced approach through 2025.

隨著我們即將進入 2025 年，我們將把部分產品開發工作重新轉移到我們過去非常擅長的這些非常有針對性的近期 GMS 驅動工作上，因此我們將在 2025 年採取更加平衡的方法。

Those teams are just starting in their tracks of work.

這些團隊才剛開始工作。

January 1, they just started returning their focus to the more traditional near-term GMS driving work.

從 1 月 1 日起，他們才剛開始將注意力轉移到更傳統的近期 GMS 推動工作上。

But we think as we move through the year, we have a track record of seeing those kinds of efforts to be very productive.

但我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到這些努力非常有成效。

So -- that's why we think that the work we did last year is good, and we think it positions us to see improvements as we move past the first quarter.

所以——這就是為什麼我們認為我們去年所做的工作很好，而且我們認為它使我們在第一季之後看到進步。

And quickly on your question about seller count, one thing we've seen is that the percentage of sellers who have made a sale successfully has grown as the volume of sellers has come down a little bit.

關於賣家數量的問題，我們發現，隨著賣家數量的略有下降，成功銷售的賣家比例增加。

That reflects some purposeful friction that we've put in the seller sign-up and seller acquisition process to make sure that the sellers on the market really have the will and the scale to be successful in the Etsy Marketplace.

這反映了我們在賣家註冊和賣家獲取過程中設置的一些有意的摩擦，以確保市場上的賣家真正有意願和規模在 Etsy 市場上取得成功。

From a growth perspective, we think that the variety, the depth and the breadth of the selection that Etsy has got is ample and sufficient to drive and support really good GMS growth in the long term.

從成長角度來看，我們認為 Etsy 所擁有的選擇的多樣性、深度和廣度是足夠的，足以長期推動和支持真正良好的 GMS 成長。

And it's incumbent upon us to bring that selection forward to consumers, anticipating what they're looking for, bringing them back for those incremental shopping moments, as Josh described earlier.

我們有責任將這些選擇提供給消費者，預測他們的需求，並讓他們回來進行額外的購物，正如喬希之前所描述的那樣。

So as we're looking forward, I think we feel really good about the breadth of our selection, and it's all about us elevating that bringing buyers back to that great selection that's on the Marketplace.

因此，展望未來，我認為我們對我們的選擇廣度感到非常滿意，而我們所做的一切都是為了提升產品的質量，讓買家重返市場上的精彩選擇。

Lee Horowitz, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的李‧霍洛維茲 (Lee Horowitz)。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Josh, you gave some really helpful color on the priorities in '25, but you also talked about e-commerce platforms that are gaining share at this point. as those that compete on either price or speed of delivery.

喬希，你對 25 年的優先事項給了一些非常有用的說明，但你也談到了此時正在獲得份額的電子商務平台。例如那些在價格或交貨速度上競爭的公司。

I guess as you look out to 2025, do you expect that the priorities that you're making in terms of product can drive incremental GMS in a way that offsets these consumer level headwinds?

我想，當您展望2025年時，您是否預期您在產品方面製定的優先事項能夠推動 GMS 的成長，從而抵消這些消費者層面的不利因素？

Do you have enough in your toolkit?

您的工具箱裡有足夠的工具嗎？

Or do you need sort of the market to improve?

還是你需要某種市場來改善？

I mean, certainly, it won't hurt for consumers to feel more confidence and feel like they are not trying to pinch every single penny.

我的意思是，這肯定會讓消費者更有自信，感覺他們不會吝惜每一分錢。

For those who are saying, hey, the economy actually looks pretty good.

對於那些說「嘿，經濟實際上看起來相當不錯」的人來說。

All the data looks pretty good.

所有數據看起來都很好。

I think we just went through an election, which was kind of a referendum on how do people feel about the economy.

我認為我們剛剛經歷了一場選舉，這可以說是一次關於人們對經濟看法的全民公投。

And I don't I think they feel great about it.

但我認為他們對此並不感覺很好。

So having more consumer confidence would no doubt help.

因此，增強消費者信心無疑會有所幫助。

That said, we're very focused on doing what we can do within our power, and I do think we have a lot of agency here.

話雖如此，我們非常專注於做我們所能做的事情，而且我確實認為我們在這裡有很多選擇。

I think, trying to compete in the race to the bottom of who can sell it cheaper and ship it faster, Etsy is just not well positioned for that.

我認為，在比拼誰能以更低的價格出售商品、以更快的速度運送商品的競爭中，Etsy 並沒有佔據有利地位。

That's not what we're about, and I don't think it's great for our brand.

這不是我們想要的，而且我認為這對我們的品牌沒有好處。

I do think that really leaning into what makes Etsy different, why we have great product at fair prices that are going to really delight you, not something that ends up in a landfill three minutes after you buy it.

我確實認為，真正了解 Etsy 的與眾不同之處，了解為什麼我們能以合理的價格提供優質的產品，讓您真正滿意，而不是在您購買三分鐘後就被丟棄在垃圾掩埋場的東西。

I think is more meaningful now than ever.

我認為現在比以往任何時候都更有意義。

And in fact, as we look at -- there's a whole world that's looking at supply chains right now.

事實上，我們看到，現在全世界都在關注供應鏈。

We're having all kinds of conversations.

我們正在進行各種各樣的對話。

I'm sure we'll get a question about tariffs at some point in this call.

我確信我們在這次電話會議的某個時候會被問到有關關稅的問題。

But we're all thinking about where do we fit in the global supply chain.

但我們都在思考我們在全球供應鏈中處於什麼位置。

And I think this is a moment for Etsy to be saying, hey, there's a chance to be part of something really different.

我認為這是 Etsy 應該說「嘿，這是一個參與真正不同事物的機會」的時刻。

There's a chance to own something that really matters.

有機會擁有一些真正重要的東西。

And so really what we're really focused on is elevating the really the best of Etsy.

因此，我們真正關注的是提升 Etsy 的真正優勢。

And our ability to do that is much greater all of a sudden with the advent of LLMs, understanding what are the highest quality items, what are the most artisanal items, which items appear to be value priced appropriately to the market, who are the sellers that actually do the very best job serving our customers and really lifting those people up and then creating more browsable spaces on the site where even if you didn't come looking for it.

隨著 LLM 的出現，我們做到這一點的能力突然大大增強，我們了解哪些是質量最高的商品，哪些是最具手工藝特色的商品，哪些商品的市場價值似乎合理，哪些賣家實際上為我們的客戶提供了最好的服務，並真正提升了這些人的體驗，然後在網站上創建更多可瀏覽的空間，即使您不是特意來尋找它。

Jewelry, for example, you were looking for home furnishings when you arrived.

例如珠寶，您到達時正在尋找家居用品。

But we're showing you, hey, Etsy has got amazing like demifine jewelry.

但是我們向您展示，嘿，Etsy 擁有令人驚嘆的精緻珠寶。

Demifine jewelry is an area where we compete super well.

半高級珠寶是我們競爭力極強的領域。

That's going to be a ring that's maybe $100 to $300.

這枚戒指的價格大概在 100 到 300 美元之間。

And for items like that, you're going to find much better product, better quality and better price than what you can find at the mall.

對於這樣的物品，您會找到比商場中更好的產品、更好的品質和更優惠的價格。

So we have a lot of opportunities to compete.

所以我們有很多的競爭機會。

We just need to really put our best foot forward.

我們只需要盡最大努力。

And that's where we've been making some foundational investments that I think really position us well for that.

這就是我們一直在進行的一些基礎投資，我認為這確實為我們做好了準備。

Maria Ripps, Canaccord.

瑪麗亞·里普斯 (Maria Ripps)，Canaccord。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Lanny, congrats on joining the company.

Lanny，恭喜您加入本公司。

First, did you have any thoughts or insights into how the competitive backdrop kind of and a strategic framework could change or when or if the de minimis exemption is actually repealed?

首先，您對競爭背景和策略框架將如何變化，或者最低限度豁免何時或是否會真正被廢除，有什麼想法或見解嗎？

And I think, Josh, related to that, can we spend a minute talking about tariffs and the impact of the platform?

喬希，我想，與此相關，我們可以花一點時間談談關稅和平台的影響嗎？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，絕對是如此。

The short answer is it really depends because we're seeing all kinds of proposals and it's very difficult right now to know which tariffs, on which countries, will de minimis be allowed or not in those regimes, it's really hard to know.

簡短的回答是，這確實取決於情況，因為我們看到各種各樣的提議，現在很難知道在哪些關稅制度下，哪些國家允許或不允許徵收最低限度的關稅，這真的很難知道。

Etsy has much less dependence on products coming in from China, vastly less dependence on products coming in from China than most of our competitors.

Etsy 對來自中國的產品的依賴程度要小得多，與我們的大多數競爭對手相比，對來自中國的產品的依賴程度要小得多。

So I think to the extent that we see tariffs that are very focused on China or other friction of products coming in from China, I think, at least in the near term, Etsy is a net beneficiary from that.

因此，我認為，如果我們看到針對中國的關稅或其他來自中國的產品出現摩擦，我認為，至少在短期內，Etsy 將從中受益。

I think it does speak to the resilience of our platform.

我認為這確實證明了我們平台的彈性。

And beyond that, if -- what we shared is about 75% of purchase activity happens from the US.

除此之外，我們所分享的是大約 75% 的購買活動發生在美國。

About 25% of that comes in from its imports, people from the US importing primarily from Europe.

其中約25%來自進口，美國主要從歐洲進口。

And so if there were broad-based European tariff regimes, that could create more friction on our buyers.

因此，如果歐洲存在廣泛的關稅制度，這可能會為我們的買家帶來更多摩擦。

It's a little hard to know depending on how broad the tariff regimes are, how much friction there are for generally relatively low-value packages, most of our items would fall under most de minimis thresholds.

這有點難以知道，取決於關稅制度的範圍有多廣，對於一般相對低價值的包裹會有多少摩擦，我們的大多數物品是否會落入大多數最低限度門檻。

So we're tracking it very carefully.

所以我們正非常仔細地追蹤它。

We're keeping a very close eye.

我們正密切關注。

We're doing whatever work we can do to anticipate and prepare for come what may.

我們正在盡一切努力來預測和準備可能出現的情況。

In general, though, I think Etsy will be more resilient than many of our competitors in these situations.

不過，總的來說，我認為在這種情況下，Etsy 的韌性會比我們的許多競爭對手更強。

And I think it speaks to the resilience of our platform in general that we've been through a lot of global shocks of one kind or another.

我認為這說明了我們的平台總體上具有韌性，我們已經經歷過各種各樣的全球衝擊。

And this is where a cottage industry can really come to the rescue.

這時家庭手工業就能真正發揮作用了。

Our sellers buy most of their raw materials from their own -- within 60 miles of their home.

我們的賣家大部分原料都是從他們自己購買的——距離他們家 60 英里以內。

And I think that, that might turn out to be very useful for us.

我認為這對我們來說可能非常有用。

Curtis Nagle, BofA Securities.

美國銀行證券公司的柯蒂斯‧納格爾 (Curtis Nagle)。

Terrific.

了不起。

Thanks very much for the question.

非常感謝您的提問。

So first one, maybe digging into the point about the Etsy Ads driving the higher take rates, we can certainly see that in the numbers.

因此首先，也許深入探討 Etsy 廣告推動更高收費率的觀點，我們當然可以從數字中看到這一點。

It doesn't appear to be driving GMS at least on a net basis.

至少從淨基礎來看，它似乎並沒有推動 GMS 的發展。

Am I misreading in this?

我是不是理解錯了？

And I guess, just generally speaking, thinking about overall take rates, would you consider maybe lowering a bit to help drive some GMS?

我想，一般來說，考慮一下整體的接受率，您是否會考慮降低一點以幫助推動一些 GMS？

Great question.

好問題。

So the Etsy Ads are actually neutral or better to GMS.

因此，Etsy 廣告實際上對 GMS 是中性的，或者更好。

So we tend not to ramp things up if they are harmful to GMS.

因此，如果某些措施對 GMS 有害，我們傾向於不加大力度。

The standard is it's got to be for the buyer experience, it's got to be that the ads are as good as the organic.

標準是它必須適合買家的體驗，它必須與有機廣告一樣好。

So not always the case, and it depends lots of releases.

所以情況並非總是如此，這取決於大量的版本。

The Etsy ads benefits we've seen isn't like one big bang release.

我們所看到的 Etsy 廣告效益並不是一下子就大獲成功的。

There have been a number of things that they've done.

他們已經做了很多事情。

But in general, I would say they're at least neutral and sometimes beneficial.

但總的來說，我認為它們至少是中性的，有時甚至是有益的。

The Etsy Ads team is actually gold based on GMS and take rate.

Etsy Ads 團隊實際上是基於 GMS 和收費率的黃金團隊。

So their gold based on producing an experience that drives more sales for our sellers.

因此，他們的黃金基礎是創造一種能夠為我們的賣家帶來更多銷售的體驗。

In terms of taking the take rate down, it doesn't appear to us right now that, that is a hindrance.

從降低接受率的角度來看，目前我們認為這不會造成任何阻礙。

In fact, we see a huge abundance of really high-quality listings on the site.

事實上，我們看到網站上有大量真正高品質的清單。

We're proud of the fact that most of the fees we charge are optional.

我們很自豪，我們收取的大部分費用都是可選的。

So there's $0.20 to list an item that's been stable for I think since we launched Etsy 20 years ago.

所以，列出一件商品的費用是 0.20 美元，我想自從我們 20 年前推出 Etsy 以來，這個費用一直很穩定。

There's a 6.5% commission, which we think is pretty fair.

佣金為 6.5%，我們認為相當公平。

Payments fee, which is very competitive with any other payments platform you'd use.

支付費用與您使用的任何其他支付平台相比都極具競爭力。

And everything else is optional.

其餘一切都是可選的。

And so our sellers are opting in when we create value-added services, be it shipping labels or Etsy Ads.

因此，當我們建立加值服務時，我們的賣家都會選擇加入，無論是運送標籤還是 Etsy 廣告。

So we think we've done a good job of making this a real win-win.

因此，我們認為我們已經做得很好，實現了真正的雙贏。

And in fact, if you look at the take rate expansion over 2024 and even over 2023, those were all us to making the experience better in a way that our sellers opted in.

事實上，如果你看看 2024 年甚至 2023 年的佣金率擴張，你會發現這些都是我們為了以賣家選擇的方式改善體驗而採取的措施。

So we think we made the pie better.

因此我們認為我們把餡餅做得更好了。

They were real win-win experiences.

這確實是雙贏的經驗。

And the notion that the take-rate always has to be a zero-sum game, I'm not sure is true.

而認為接受率總是零和遊戲的觀點，我不確定是否正確。

I think we've done a pretty good job of demonstrating that we can make the pie bigger for everyone.

我認為，我們已經很好地證明，我們可以為每個人提供更大的利益。

We expect to be able to sustain the take rate, the advances we've made over the last 12 months.

我們希望能夠維持過去的 12 個月所取得的進展和接受率。

Our first quarter outlook is that it will be -- take rate should be around 23%, which is up a little bit from where it was in the fourth quarter.

我們對第一季的預測是——接受率應該在 23% 左右，比第四季略有上升。

And as Josh said, we believe it's Etsy's efforts to bring value to those additional services that are appreciated by the sellers that support the take rate where it is today and where it could go in the future.

正如喬希所說，我們相信 Etsy 努力為這些附加服務帶來價值，這些服務受到賣家的讚賞，支撐了目前的收費率以及未來的收費率。

I'll add on Etsy since we're on it.

既然我們在 Etsy 上，我就添加它。

If we look back historically at Etsy Ads, you see it tends to go through a period of time when take rate from Etsy Ads relatively stable, then you'll see it go up relative to -- we're making some foundational investments, some core infrastructure and other investments in a year and then it pays off with better models the next year.

如果我們回顧 Etsy Ads 的歷史，您會發現它往往會經歷一段時間，此時 Etsy Ads 的收費率相對穩定，然後您會看到它相對上升 - 我們在一年內進行一些基礎投資、一些核心基礎設施和其他投資，然後它會在明年通過更好的模型獲得回報。

And you tend to see it go a little bit like that.

你往往會看到事情有點像那樣。

I think that the Etsy Ads improvements we've made last year are going to be very sustainable.

我認為我們去年對 Etsy Ads 所做的改進將非常可持續。

This year, but the team has some great ideas for some very foundational work that they want to do on Etsy Ads that may not raise the take rate in the short term, in particular, taking a lot of the quality work from search and infusing that into ads so that search and ads work more closely together and you see less duplication between them,

今年，該團隊對他們希望在 Etsy Ads 上進行的某些非常基礎的工作有一些很棒的想法，這些工作可能不會在短期內提高接受率，特別是從搜索中獲取大量優質工作並將其註入廣告中，以便搜索和廣告更緊密地結合在一起，並且您會看到它們之間的重複更少，

I think that's going to be a great track to work.

我認為這將是一條非常棒的工作道路。

I don't know that it will raise the take rate, but I think it will make the buyer experience better to the core of your question.

我不知道它是否會提高接受率，但我認為這會讓買家體驗更好，這正是你問題的核心。

That's one of the big focus areas for this year.

這是今年的重點關注領域之一。

.

。

Steve Forbes, Guggenheim.

古根漢的史蒂夫福布斯。

Morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Josh, maybe just to focus on the habitual buyer base and the repeat buyer base, right?

喬希，也許只是專注於習慣性購買者群體和重複購買者群體，對嗎？

It intuitively makes a lot of sense what's happening with the seller base.

從直覺上看，賣家群體正在發生的事情很有道理。

So maybe can you just help us understand sort of what factors are driving the shrinkage of the habitual buyer base?

那麼，您能否幫助我們了解哪些因素導致了慣常購買者群體的縮小？

And then as you sort of explore the loyalty program development process, what needs, right, does the habitual buyer or repeat buyer really want from Etsy as you think about improving the value proposition of the loyalty program over time?

然後，當您探索忠誠度計劃開發過程時，當您考慮隨著時間的推移改善忠誠度計劃的價值主張時，習慣性購買者或重複購買者真正希望從 Etsy 獲得什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So there's, broadly speaking, two categories, I would say, in the habitual buyer.

因此，從廣義上講，我認為習慣性購買者可分為兩類。

There are people who are going through a life event like a wedding or a new baby, where they suddenly have a lot of purchases that are very relevant for Etsy.

有些人正在經歷諸如婚禮或新生兒之類的生活大事，他們突然購買了很多與 Etsy 非常相關的東西。

And we'll see them pop-up and be very high purchasers.

我們會看到他們突然出現並成為高購買者。

And then they typically don't go away.

而且它們通常不會消失。

They just buy less in the next year, and we see waves of that happening.

明年他們的購買量就會減少，而且我們看到了這種情況的一波又一波的發生。

When wedding sizes get smaller, we've had fewer weddings, for example, you see a little bit of headwinds from some of that.

例如，當婚禮規模變小，我們舉辦的婚禮就會減少，你會看到由此帶來的一些阻力。

When I say we, I mean the market has had fewer wedding.

當我說「我們」時，我的意思是市場上的婚禮越來越少了。

We went through a wedding boom and weddings are not quite where they were at the moment.

我們經歷了婚禮熱潮，但婚禮不再像以前那麼盛行了。

But the other thing we're seeing is people who just figured out that Etsy is a place they can go for all kinds of things, and they start their shopping at Etsy.

但我們看到的另一件事是，人們只是發現 Etsy 是一個可以購買各種東西的地方，他們開始在 Etsy 購物。

And we really want -- when we talk about these discovery experiences, more browsable experiences, helping more people to realize that they can start their shopping missions at Etsy much earlier.

我們真正想要的是——當我們談論這些發現體驗時，更多的可瀏覽體驗，幫助更多的人意識到他們可以更早地在 Etsy 開始他們的購物任務。

What we find with those habituals is that they really know how to -- how Etsy search works.

我們發現這些習慣使用者確實知道 Etsy 搜尋的工作原理。

The -- if you sit next to them, they know the right words to put into Etsy search to get to the right stuff.

如果你坐在他們旁邊，他們就知道在 Etsy 搜尋中輸入正確的字詞來找到正確的東西。

They're very creative, and they speak merch.

他們非常有創造力，而且他們講商品。

And what we're trying to do is create experiences that allow people that don't speak merch that don't know how to talk to our search engine to be able to have a really fun and engaging experience as well and be able to sort of swim in the joy of all the fun stuff that's Etsy without needing to be an expert.

我們正在嘗試做的是創造一種體驗，讓那些不懂商品、不知道如何與我們的搜尋引擎對話的人也能獲得真正有趣和引人入勝的體驗，並能夠享受 Etsy 所有有趣事物的樂趣，而無需成為專家。

And over time, I think that can lead to a lot more frequency for us.

隨著時間的推移，我認為這可以為我們帶來更多的頻率。

As we've said in prior calls, we continue to see when we see a small decline in habituals, it's not people leaving Etsy.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中所說的那樣，當我們看到習慣性用戶數量略有下降時，這並不意味著人們離開了 Etsy。

It's just going from six purchases to five.

只是購買次數從六次減少到了五次。

Typically, it's just buying a little less often or spending a little less money.

通常來說，這只是減少購買頻率或少花一點錢。

Yes.

是的。

We are encouraged by the early indications from the loyalty program.

忠誠度計劃的早期跡象令我們感到鼓舞。

People like free shipping.

人們喜歡免費送貨。

And when they get free shipping, they seem to buy a fair amount more product from Etsy.

當他們獲得免費送貨時，他們似乎會從 Etsy 購買更多的產品。

So I think it's really -- now the work to do is to look at what's going to happen with churn rates, which is obviously very important.

所以我認為現在要做的工作是看看客戶流失率會發生什麼變化，這顯然非常重要。

Some of these people are on a seasonal subscription.

其中一些人是按季節訂閱的。

So every quarter, it takes three months to see how many are sticking with us.

因此，每個季度都需要三個月的時間來了解有多少人繼續與我們合作。

But importantly, also what the unit economics look like for us and how to make sure that we are doing this in a way where the unit economics really make sense.

但重要的是，單位經濟學對我們來說是什麼樣的，以及如何確保我們以單位經濟學真正合理的方式做到這一點。

And I think that that's going to be iterative work where we're going to continue to sort of expand the pool of people we have in the program, work through the unit economics and then grow probably in a more organic way.

我認為這將是一項反覆的工作，我們將繼續擴大專案中的人才庫，實現單位經濟學，然後以更有機的方式發展。

I would say that we are -- we have the number of subscribers we hoped to have.

我想說的是，我們已經擁有了我們希望擁有的訂閱者數量。

So the program is delivering what we hoped.

因此該計劃實現了我們所希望的。

And that's a petri dish big enough for us to really be learning from.

這是一個足夠大的培養皿，可供我們真正學習。

Mark Kelley, Stifel.

馬克凱利（Mark Kelley），Stifel。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I appreciate you taking my questions.We're getting some questions this morning just about why 2025 will be different than 2024?

感謝您回答我的問題。

Because the messaging was fairly similar at this point last year that as we progress throughout the year, things will just get better.

因為去年此時傳達的訊息非常相似，隨著我們全年的進步，事情只會變得更好。

I guess what gives you confidence that this year will be a little bit better?

我想什麼讓您有信心今年的情況會好一點呢？

And then maybe a quick one on that $1 billion of incremental GMS from the app, improvements that you're talking about.

然後，我們再快速談談應用程式帶來的 10 億美元增量 GMS，以及您談到的改進。

I guess, could you maybe walk through that a little bit, Josh?

我想，喬什，你能稍微講一下嗎？

Yes.

是的。

On the first one, you'll recall that in the spring and summer, we started to change our messaging and actually say that we thought that the most important thing for Etsy to do was to create holistically more different experiences and really lean into the differentiation of Etsy, elevate quality, reduce sameness things like that, which we didn't think we're going to have a near-term benefit.

關於第一個問題，您會記得，在春季和夏季，我們開始改變我們的訊息傳遞方式，實際上，我們認為 Etsy 最重要的事情是全面創造更多不同的體驗，真正傾向於 Etsy 的差異化，提高質量，減少相同性之類的事情，我們認為這不會在短期內帶來好處。

And so well, you're right that in the first quarter we said we expect product to contribute and drive growth, we actually evolved our messaging from that.

所以，您說得對，在第一季度，我們說過，我們預計產品將做出貢獻並推動成長，實際上，我們是從這一點出發來改進我們的訊息傳遞方式的。

We said in the spring and summer, hey, we've decided to shift our efforts to things that we don't have near-term benefit but will set up Etsy much better for the medium and the long term.

我們在春季和夏季說過，嘿，我們決定將精力轉移到那些短期內沒有利益但會讓 Etsy 在中長期內變得更好的事情上。

We think that, that had an opportunity cost last year of at least a few hundred million dollars, felt particularly in the back half of the year.

我們認為，去年的機會成本至少有幾億美元，尤其是在下半年。

That would have also normally been providing a tailwind for us in Q1, which we aren't feeling from that understandably.

通常情況下，這也會為我們在第一季提供順風，但可以理解的是，我們並沒有感受到這一點。

As we head into this year, we have actually shifted some of our product resources back to that near-term conversion driving work that historically has been very beneficial for us, while continuing to keep also investment on things that continue the work around quality and differentiation that we think is going to drive frequency and loyalty to Etsy over the medium term.

進入今年，我們實際上已將部分產品資源轉移回短期轉化驅動工作，從歷史上看，這對我們來說非常有利，同時我們繼續保持對品質和差異化工作的投資，我們認為這將在中期內推動 Etsy 的使用頻率和忠誠度。

And so I think having that more balanced portfolio, I think, is going to be very helpful.

因此我認為擁有更平衡的投資組合將會非常有幫助。

Lanny also ticked through a couple of other things that we think will be helpful in the recorded part of the call, for example, the fact that the comps get a bit easier as we move through the year.

蘭尼也列舉了其他一些我們認為會對通話錄音部分有幫助的事情，例如，隨著時間的推移，比較會變得更容易一些。

So we're going to keep focusing on the things we can control, which is really setting up Etsy as the best possible alternative to all of the really cheap and commoditized stuff out there.

因此，我們將繼續專注於我們能夠控制的事情，這實際上使 Etsy 成為所有真正廉價和商品化商品的最佳替代品。

And I think the more we do to set up Etsy is something that's truly better and different than that.

我認為，我們為建立 Etsy 所做的努力越多，它就越好，越與眾不同。

I think that is a very big price, and we have our eyes on that price and really focused on building towards that much better future.

我認為這是一個非常大的代價，我們密切關注這個代價，並真正專注於建立一個更美好的未來。

I think that from -- joining the company being relatively new as I look at this year, the return and rebalancing of more of our development efforts to that sort of bread and butter, Etsy conversion driving the sort of shorter-term GMS driving, rebalancing in that direction gives me encouragement about our growth rates today and what they can be tomorrow as that becomes more of our mix going into this year.

我認為——從我今年加入公司相對較新的角度來看，我們將更多的開發工作回歸併重新平衡到那種主要業務上，Etsy 轉換推動了那種短期 GMS 驅動，朝著這個方向進行重新平衡讓我對我們今天的增長率以及明天的增長率感到鼓舞，因為那將成為我們今年的業務組合中更重要的一部分。

And then there are really important fundamental investments made last year in things like gifting that I think will contribute more as we move through this year.

然後，我們去年在贈送等方面進行了非常重要的基本投資，我認為這些投資在今年將會做出更大的貢獻。

And as we said, in Valentine's Day and gifting around that was encouraging.

正如我們所說，在情人節送禮是令人鼓舞的。

And I think you'll see the benefits of that foundational work we did last year set us up for potential improvement later on this year.

我想您會看到我們去年所做的基礎工作帶來的好處，這為我們今年稍後的潛在改進奠定了基礎。

So this is one of the factors that we're pointing toward.

這是我們指出的因素之一。

The second part of the question from Mark was on the app, and why are we thinking about that?

馬克問題的第二部分是關於應用程式的，我們為什麼要考慮這個問題？

So we've been, as you know, also speaking of opportunity cost, taking people who land on mobile web and saying, hey, you really should be on the app.

因此，如你所知，我們也一直在談論機會成本，吸引那些訪問行動網路的人並說，嘿，你真的應該使用應用程式。

We feel some friction from that.

我們感受到了由此帶來的一些摩擦。

That's intentional friction, but there's going to be some conversion rate loss that comes from that.

這是故意造成的摩擦，但這會導致一些轉換率損失。

We're trying to be thoughtful and balanced, not reckless about it, very data-driven about it.

我們試圖深思熟慮、保持平衡，而不是魯莽行事，而是以數據為導向。

But we are seeing an increase in app downloads as we had in -- through the beginning of this year that we think is encouraging.

但我們看到應用程式下載量在今年年初有所增加，我們認為這是令人鼓舞的。

So we're going to keep leaning into that work.

因此我們將繼續致力於這項工作。

And over time, getting much more of our usage to shift to the app we think, is going to be really great for long-term health of our customers and Etsy business.

隨著時間的推移，我們認為，越來越多的用戶轉向使用該應用程序，將對我們的客戶和 Etsy 業務的長期健康非常有益。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

John Colantuoni, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的約翰‧科蘭托尼 (John Colantuoni)。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much for taking my questions.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

So when you compare the insights from your foundational investments so far and think about how to position Etsy's Marketplace for a return to growth, talk about which areas of improvement to the consumer experience that you expect to contribute most meaningfully to that recovery?

因此，當您比較迄今為止的基礎投資見解並思考如何定位 Etsy 的市場以實現成長時，請談談您期望哪些消費者體驗改進領域對復甦做出最有意義的貢獻？

And maybe as part of that, can you just provide some examples of the areas of investments that you'll focus more on to generate more near-term GMS wins that you talked about?

也許作為其中的一部分，您能否提供一些例子，說明您將更加關注的投資領域，以便在您談到的短期內獲得更多的 GMS 勝利？

Yes.

是的。

Let me start with the near term and then I'll go to the medium term, if that's okay.

讓我先從近期開始，然後再談中期，如果可以的話。

On the near term, there's a couple of tracks of work that this -- the conversion driving team.

短期內，轉換驅動團隊有幾項工作要做。

And one of the changes we've made is instead of having every squad try to build a better experience for the medium term, while also growth hacking conversion driving wins for the short term, we've actually separated and said these are squads that are specifically dedicated to conversion driving near-term GMS.

我們所做的其中一項改變是，我們不再讓每個小組都努力打造更好的中期體驗，同時也努力在短期內推動轉化勝利，而是實際上將他們分開，並指定這些小組專門致力於推動短期 GMS 的轉化。

And these are squads that are holding newer surfaces, and we think improved experiences for the medium term.

這些球隊擁有更新的陣容，我們認為從中期來看他們的經驗會有所改善。

So you can think about it as value capture and value creation squads.

因此你可以將其視為價值獲取和價值創造小組。

And I think just having differentiation of mission is going to help.

我認為，只要區分不同的使命就會有所幫助。

But having those squads that are very focused on near-term GMS, we've launched a whole bunch of new surfaces as the work that we did in the last half of last year, there's now an opportunity to go into those new surfaces we've launched and actually improve them for conversion.

但是，由於這些團隊非常專注於近期的 GMS，我們已經推出了一大堆新表面，正如我們在去年下半年所做的工作一樣，現在我們有機會深入研究我們已經推出的這些新表面，並實際改進它們以進行轉換。

And so I think there's -- we'll see some benefit from that.

所以我認為，我們會從中看到一些好處。

Also, tactically, when I think about things that are likely to pay off this year, applying a lot more machine learning to our feeds, to our lower funnel marketing I think, can drive meaningful efficiency gains there that we would -- to the extent they're ROI positive, reinvest in growth.

此外，從戰術上講，當我考慮今年可能會有回報的事情時，我認為將更多的機器學習應用到我們的資訊流中，應用到我們較低的漏斗行銷中，可以帶來有意義的效率提升，只要它們的投資回報率為正，我們就會將其重新投資於成長。

So those are some examples of things that I think in the near term can be very helpful.

這些是我認為在短期內會非常有用的例子。

In the medium term, I want to talk about browsing and I want to talk about quality.

從中期來看，我想談談瀏覽，我想談談品質。

On the -- let's start with the browsing side.

讓我們從瀏覽方面開始。

Historically, our recommendations have been based off of very high intent signals like what did you buy?

從歷史上看，我們的建議都是基於非常高的意圖訊號，例如您購買了什麼？

What did you favorite?

你最喜歡什麼？

And what did you add to cart?

您新增了什麼到購物車？

Those three signals have been most of what powers recommendations on Etsy.

這三個訊號是 Etsy 上推薦的主要動力。

Those are very high intent signals.

這些都是非常強烈的意向訊號。

They tell us a lot about you, but they happen very rarely.

他們會告訴我們很多關於您的訊息，但這種情況很少發生。

Most customers have only a few purchases add to cards favorites.

大多數顧客僅將少量購買的商品添加到卡片收藏夾中。

So we don't end up having a lot of data to work from, and it can end up being a very rearview mirror like experience on Etsy.

因此，我們最終沒有大量的數據可供參考，而這最終可能成為 Etsy 上的後視鏡般的體驗。

By creating more browsable surfaces, you're just scrolling past interesting stuff.

透過創建更多可瀏覽的表面，您只需滾動瀏覽有趣的內容。

Where did you pause?

你在哪裡暫停了？

What did you dive into?

你深入研究了什麼？

What did you move quickly past?

你快速越過了什麼？

We get much, much more data about a much broader set of customers.

我們獲得了更多有關更廣泛客戶群的數據。

And that data tells us things like what style do you have?

這些數據可以告訴我們您的風格是什麼？

What types of inventory interest to you.

您對哪些類型的庫存感興趣。

It probably starts to tell us things like, do you own a pet or do you have a child in the house.

它可能會開始告訴我們一些事情，例如，你是否養寵物或你家裡是否有孩子。

What types of categories interest to you.

您對哪些類型的類別感興趣。

So when you come back and search on Etsy, we can apply all of that because we know so much more about you to make that that experience so much more tailored to you, we can take Etsy and turn it into a really personalized experience.

因此，當您回來並在 Etsy 上搜索時，我們可以應用所有這些信息，因為我們對您了解得更多，從而為您提供更加量身定制的體驗，我們可以利用 Etsy 將其轉變為真正個性化的體驗。

And this is not work that's never been done before.

這並不是以前從未做過的工作。

We have a lot to learn from folks like TikTok and Instagram and Pinterest and others on this.

在這方面，我們可以從 TikTok、Instagram、Pinterest 等公司學習很多東西。

But there's been a lot published on how to do this well that we think we can learn from and really accelerate our growth.

但關於如何做好這件事已經有很多出版物，我們認為我們可以從中學習並真正加速我們的發展。

In doing that, I think we can also move up the funnel.

透過這樣做，我認為我們也能提升漏斗。

What our customers tell us is I love Etsy; I just didn't have a need.

我們的客戶告訴我們我喜歡 Etsy；我只是沒必要。

And what they mean by that is I go to Etsy when I've looked everywhere else, and I couldn't find it, then I go to Etsy.

他們的意思是，當我在其他地方找不到我想要的東西時，我就會去 Etsy，然後我就會去 Etsy。

And for sure, we haven't.

可以肯定的是，我們還沒有。

But we have so much more for you, too.

但我們也為您提供更多。

Instead of being the last place you go when you can't find it anywhere else, we want to be engaging you regularly in fun inspirational experiences so that when you're ready to buy something, we already have you there.

我們不想成為您在別處找不到東西時的最後一個去處，而是想定期讓您參與有趣的啟發性體驗，以便當您準備購買某樣東西時，我們已經把您帶到了那裡。

We don't have to spend as much to get you back.

我們不需要花太多錢就能把你救回來。

For many retailers, I think that would be a pipe dream.

對許多零售商來說，我認為這只是一場白日夢。

The idea that people are going to come and spend time just to be inspired or to discover.

人們來這裡度過一段時間只是為了獲得啟發或探索。

But for Etsy, it's a natural.

但對 Etsy 來說，這是很自然的。

We are the home of creativity.

我們是創造力的家園。

We are the home of self-expression.

我們是自我表達的家。

We have so much interesting content from interesting creators that I think on Etsy, it's actually a very natural fit, and our customers think it's a very natural fit.

我們有這麼多來自有趣創作者的有趣內容，我認為在 Etsy 上，這實際上是一種非常自然的契合，我們的客戶也認為這是一種非常自然的契合。

We have a lot of opportunity there.

我們在那裡有很多機會。

We're just beginning in that, and I'm incredibly excited.

我們才剛開始，我感到無比興奮。

The other area I'm super excited about is quality, really understanding what the best of Etsy is.

讓我非常興奮的另一個領域是質量，真正了解 Etsy 的最佳之處。

That's obviously an eye of the beholder thing, but LLM start to give us insight into the beholder.

這顯然是旁觀者的看法，但法學碩士 (LLM) 開始讓我們洞察旁觀者。

What are your cases?

您的案例有哪些？

And then what does look like quality to you?

那麼對您來說什麼才是品質呢？

What does appear more artisanal, more crafted not just a peer, but is this LLM that I spoke about in the recorded part of the call?

什麼看起來更具工藝性，更精雕細琢，不僅僅是同行，而是我在通話錄音部分談到的 LLM 嗎？

For example, it can look at a picture and say, what are the specific skills that would be required to make this product?

例如，它可以透過看一張圖片來判斷，製造這個產品需要哪些具體的技能？

Oh, well, the wood is joined in a way that requires a very high level of craftsmanship.

哦，木材的連接方式需要非常高的工藝水平。

So this is a particularly artisanal product.

這是一種特別具有手工特色的產品。

That kind of thing wouldn't have been possible even three years ago.

這種事情在三年前還不可能發生。

So I think our ability to identify and elevate the stuff that's most unique and interesting on Etsy is at the knee of the curve right now, and I'm really excited to see what that can yield.

因此，我認為我們在 Etsy 上識別和提升最獨特、最有趣的東西的能力現在正處於曲線的拐點，我真的很興奮看到這能帶來什麼成果。

I think we're actually out of time.

我認為我們確實沒時間了。

Thank you, guys, so much.

非常感謝你們。

Thanks, operator.

謝謝，接線生。

I appreciate all the interest.

我感謝大家的關注。

Thank you all very much.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。