ETSY Inc (ETSY) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hi, everyone, and welcome to Etsy's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Deb Wasser, VP of Investor Relations.

大家好，歡迎參加 Etsy 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我是投資者關係副總裁 Deb Wasser。

Today's prepared remarks have been prerecorded. joining me today are Josh Silverman, CEO; and Rachel Glaser, our CFO. Once we are finished with the presentation, we will take questions from our publishing sell-side analysts on video.

今天準備好的發言稿已預先錄製。今天加入我的是執行長 Josh Silverman；和我們的財務長 Rachel Glaser。演示結束後，我們將透過影片回答發布賣方分析師的問題。

Please keep in mind that our remarks today include forward-looking statements related to our financial guidance, our business and our operating results, as noted in the slide deck posted to our website for your reference. Our actual results may differ materially.

請記住，我們今天的言論包括與我們的財務指導、業務和經營業績相關的前瞻性陳述，如我們網站上發布的幻燈片所示，供您參考。我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, some of which are described in today's earnings release and our most recent Form 10-Q and which will be updated in future periodic reports that we file with the SEC.

前瞻性陳述涉及風險和不確定性，其中一些在今天的收益報告和我們最新的 10-Q 表格中進行了描述，並將在我們向 SEC 提交的未來定期報告中進行更新。

Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today, and we disclaim any obligation to update them. Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP measures and non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to GAAP financial measures in today's earnings press release or the slide deck posted on our IR website, along with a replay of this call.

我們在本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述均基於我們今天的信念和假設，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務。此外，在電話會議期間，我們還將介紹GAAP 衡量標準和非GAAP 財務衡量標準，這些衡量標準將與今天的收益新聞稿或我們的IR 網站上發布的幻燈片中的GAAP 財務衡量標準進行協調，並重播本次電話會議。

With that, I'll turn it over to Josh.

有了這個，我會把它交給喬希。

Thanks, Deb. We're pleased to speak with you today about our recent performance, but more importantly, to preview some of our exciting initiatives for 2024. We've built an ambitious portfolio of growth initiatives, what we consider some very bold moves while staying focused on protecting or expanding our overall profitability. We've done a lot to set Etsy up for success, making some difficult choices last year to be able to invest in our vital fuel with an eye to getting Etsy back to growth. We entered 2024 energized with the right team, a highly relevant and differentiated right-to-win strategy, a disciplined investment approach and a resilient business model.

謝謝，黛布。我們很高興今天與您談論我們最近的業績，但更重要的是，預覽我們2024 年的一些令人興奮的舉措。我們已經制定了雄心勃勃的成長舉措組合，我們認為這些舉措是非常大膽的，同時仍專注於保護或擴大我們的整體獲利能力。為了讓 Etsy 成功，我們做了很多工作，去年做出了一些艱難的選擇，以便能夠投資我們的重要燃料，並專注於讓 Etsy 恢復成長。進入 2024 年，我們充滿活力，擁有合適的團隊、高度相關且差異化的雙贏策略、嚴格的投資方法和富有彈性的商業模式。

Our focus will be to make Etsy even more Etsy, leaning into our core strengths to get even better at what we do that is unlike anyone else in e-commerce. We had a strong finish to 2023 in the core Etsy marketplace as well as at our subsidiaries, which collectively brought Q4 in a bit better than expected, as Rachel will review shortly. The Etsy marketplace performed well during the holiday season with our host ever Cyber 5 GMS, up about 4% year-over-year. Both Cyber Monday and Gifting Tuesday set new records.

我們的重點是讓 Etsy 變得更加 Etsy，利用我們的核心優勢，在我們所做的事情上做得更好，這與電子商務領域的其他公司不同。我們在核心 Etsy 市場以及我們的子公司在 2023 年取得了強勁的成績，這使得第四季度的業績略好於預期，Rachel 很快就會對此進行評論。 Etsy 市場在節日期間表現良好，我們的主機 Cyber​​ 5 GMS 年比增長約 4%。 「網路星期一」和「送禮星期二」都創下了新紀錄。

We know Etsy is a great place to shop for gifts and our focus on this message paid off. More to come on gifting in a moment.

我們知道 Etsy 是購買禮物的好地方，我們對這一訊息的關注得到了回報。稍後將有更多禮物。

With this strong finish to 2023, consolidated GMS was $13.2 billion, roughly flat with 2022. Revenue was a record $2.7 billion, up about 7%; adjusted EBITDA was about $754 million; and free cash flow was very strong at about $666 million.

隨著 2023 年的強勁收官，合併後的 GMS 達到 132 億美元，與 2022 年基本持平。營收達到創紀錄的 27 億美元，成長約 7%；調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7.54 億美元；自由現金流非常強勁，約 6.66 億美元。

Etsy's ability to deliver healthy revenue growth and strong levels of profit and cash flow gives us great confidence in the power of our special financial model and our ability to invest in long-term sustainable growth. 2023 was a banner year for our Etsy marketplace product development teams who delivered our highest ever level of incremental annualized GMS. We dramatically improved experiences for buyers, making it easier to find what you're looking for, better at highlighting the best stuff, using new signals and nudges to drive conversion rate, improving reviews and recommendations, and developing new category purchase pathways and experiences.

Etsy 能夠實現健康的收入成長以及強勁的利潤和現金流水平，這讓我們對我們特殊的財務模式的力量以及我們投資於長期可持續增長的能力充滿信心。 2023 年對我們的 Etsy 市場產品開發團隊來說是標誌性的一年，他們交付了有史以來最高水準的增量年度化 GMS。我們大大改善了買家的體驗，讓他們更容易找到您想要的東西，更好地突出最好的東西，使用新的信號和推動來提高轉換率，改進評論和推薦，並開發新的類別購買途徑和體驗。

We built entirely new ways to feature handcrafted high-quality listings at value. Our marketing team was also extremely productive with memorable above-the-line campaigns contributing to our highest ever level for buyer intent to purchase on Etsy in our top 3 countries, increased visibility for seller funded promotions, scaled social spend and new tools for buyer engagement. All in all, a respectable year in a tough environment.

我們建立了全新的方式來以價值展示手工製作的高品質清單。我們的行銷團隊也非常高效，開展了令人難忘的線下活動，使我們在前3 個國家/地區的買家在Etsy 上的購買意向達到了歷史最高水平，提高了賣家資助的促銷活動的知名度，擴大了社交支出，並為買家參與提供了新工具。總而言之，這是在艱難環境中值得尊敬的一年。

By any measure, Etsy starts 2024 a much more meaningful e-commerce company than we were just a few years ago. We've doubled our buyer base, which has now grown on a year-over-year basis for 4 consecutive quarters. And buyers on average, are still shopping more frequently and spending much more on Etsy now than they were before the pandemic.

無論以何種標準衡量，Etsy 在 2024 年都會成為一家比幾年前更有意義的電子商務公司。我們的買家數量增加了一倍，現已連續四個季度同比增長。平均而言，與大流行之前相比，現在的買家在 Etsy 上的購物頻率和花費仍然更多。

Our $12 billion in 2023 Etsy marketplace GMS was roughly $3 billion more than we outlined in the 3- to 5-year target we set in 2019. As you can see on this chart, after many years of overperforming our sector, it's been difficult to outgrow during the past few years, particularly given the tepid macro climate for consumer discretionary products. But this just means we have to work even harder and more efficiently to deliver accelerated top line growth.

到2023 年，我們的Etsy 市場GMS 收入將達到120 億美元，比我們在2019 年設定的3 到5 年目標中概述的目標高出約30 億美元。正如您在這張圖表中看到的，在我們的行業多年來表現出色之後，很難過去幾年的成長已經過時，特別是考慮到非必需消費品的宏觀環境不溫不火。但這只意味著我們必須更加努力、更有效率地工作，以實現加速的收入成長。

So where do we go from here? Let's start with the size of the prize. We all know that e-commerce is a massive business, still taking share from traditional retail. We estimate that the TAM in our core geographies and categories is $500 billion, just online with our market share sitting at just about 2%. So we still have a very long runway for growth. Most other players are competing head-to-head to sell the exact same merchandise focused on selling it $0.02 cheaper or shipping it 2 hours faster. And this has resulted in the commoditization of the entire experience. But that's just not Etsy.

那麼，我們該何去何從？讓我們從獎金的大小開始。眾所周知，電子商務是一項龐大的業務，仍在搶佔傳統零售的份額。我們估計，我們核心地區和品類的 TAM 為 5,000 億美元，僅在網路上，我們的市佔率僅為 2% 左右。因此，我們的成長還有很長的路要走。大多數其他參與者都在針鋒相對地競爭銷售完全相同的商品，重點是以便宜 0.02 美元的價格銷售或加快 2 小時的運輸速度。這導致了整個體驗的商品化。但這不是 Etsy。

While we have an opportunity to continue to enhance our offering to deliver on the table stakes e-commerce expectations, we also stand for something more. We offer something different in a sea of sameness, which is why highlighting the best stuff remains one of our top focus areas, and we're confident that we can get back to growing faster and taking share more broadly. We believe Etsy's differentiation is partially why, based on consumer Edge's U.S. e-commerce retail data, we largely continued to gain share throughout 2023 when compared to our pure-play competitors in most of our top categories.

雖然我們有機會繼續增強我們的產品以實現電子商務預期，但我們也主張更多。我們在千篇一律的海洋中提供不同的東西，這就是為什麼突出最好的東西仍然是我們最關注的領域之一，我們相信我們可以恢復更快的增長並更廣泛地佔據份額。我們認為，根據 Consumer Edge 的美國電子商務零售數據，與我們的純競爭對手相比，我們在 2023 年大部分頂級類別的市場份額基本上持續增長，而 Etsy 的差異化是我們的部分原因。

Competition indeed fierce, yet we're up for the challenge. I'm excited to tell you how and why we believe we can win. As we built our plans to reaccelerate growth this year, we've been very clear-eyed about where we are today, where our competitors are and where our strengths lie. Some of what makes us special is also what's historically held us back from being thought of for everyday purchase needs. Buyers too often think of Etsy only for very specific needs are at the end of their shopping journey. Or it simply takes too much time and effort to find the best things among our now over 100 million items.

競爭確實很激烈，但我們已經做好了迎接挑戰的準備。我很高興告訴您我們如何以及為何相信我們能夠獲勝。當我們制定今年重新加速成長的計劃時，我們非常清楚我們今天的處境、競爭對手的情況以及我們的優勢所在。我們與眾不同的一些原因也是歷史上阻礙我們滿足日常購買需求的原因。買家常常認為 Etsy 只是在購物之旅結束時滿足非常具體的需求。或者只是需要花費太多的時間和精力才能在我們現在超過 1 億的商品中找到最好的東西。

Our buyers worry about the post-purchase experience. And because of that, the number of times buyers purchased from Etsy per year as well as what they spend with us are both still much lower than for some of our peers. We know Etsy has many millions of high-quality listings that offer great value. We also know that if we can provide these in a way that's both reliable and dependable, we should be able to earn both more frequency and higher AOVs while also still having significant room to continue expanding our active buyer base.

我們的買家擔心購買後的體驗。正因為如此，買家每年從 Etsy 購買的次數以及在我們這裡花費的金額仍然遠低於我們的一些同行。我們知道 Etsy 擁有數百萬個具有巨大價值的優質清單。我們也知道，如果我們能夠以既可靠又可靠的方式提供這些服務，我們應該能夠獲得更多的頻率和更高的 AOV，同時仍然有很大的空間來繼續擴大我們的活躍買家基礎。

As we work to gain share in 2024 and beyond, we'll stay focused on our vital view, making some bold moves to break down brand barriers so that buyers will think to shop with us even more often, across a wider range of purchase occasions, leading to significantly improved consideration and ultimately increased frequency, which we believe is one of the keys to unlocking growth for Etsy.

當我們努力在 2024 年及以後贏得市場份額時，我們將繼續專注於我們的重要觀點，採取一些大膽的舉措來打破品牌壁壘，以便買家在更廣泛的購買場合中更頻繁地在我們這裡購物，從而顯著提高考慮度並最終提高頻率，我們認為這是釋放Etsy 增長的關鍵之一。

So while we'll continue to focus on adding more buyers around the globe, expanding seller services and revenue streams and so on, today, I'll focus primarily on this consideration opportunity. In fact, we've got a portfolio of compelling initiatives lined up designed to move the needle on consideration and frequency.

因此，雖然我們將繼續專注於在全球範圍內增加更多買家、擴大賣家服務和收入來源等，但今天我將主要關注這個考慮機會。事實上，我們已經制定了一系列引人注目的舉措，旨在提高考慮度和頻率。

In addition to Gift Mode, which I'll tell you more about in a moment, we're also hard at work researching options for a buyer loyalty program to give buyers explicit reasons to come back and shop more often. We'll do a lot more on the value and the reliability front, for example, with innovation planned to improve the predictability of shipping costs for both buyers and sellers as well as work to improve shipping timeliness, for example, shortening our estimated delivery dates this year by at least 2 days.

除了禮品模式（稍後我將向您詳細介紹）之外，我們還致力於研究買家忠誠度計劃的選項，以便為買家提供更頻繁地回來購物的明確理由。我們將在價值和可靠性方面做更多工作，例如，計劃進行創新以提高買家和賣家運輸成本的可預測性，並努力提高運輸及時性，例如縮短我們的預計交貨日期今年至少縮短2天。

While we've made great progress in both of these areas, we have significantly more room to go to make sure we can meet buyers' expectations and drive significant GMS while doing it in a way that remains very Etsy. We've also seen some really strong growth in international markets over the last few years and are particularly excited about plans we have to not only concentrate on building domestic vibrancy in our core markets, but also some new initiatives to drive cross-border transactions and further growth and vibrancy across key geographies, especially in Europe.

雖然我們在這兩個領域都取得了巨大進步，但我們還有更大的空間來確保我們能夠滿足買家的期望並推動重要的 GMS，同時以仍然非常 Etsy 的方式來做這件事。過去幾年，我們也看到國際市場出現了一些真正強勁的成長，我們對計劃感到特別興奮，我們不僅要集中精力在核心市場建立國內活力，還要採取一些新舉措來推動跨境交易和主要地區（尤其是歐洲）的進一步成長和活力。

We've got a lot in store. But for today, the one bold move I'm thrilled to tell you about is Gift Mode. As you've likely seen over the last few weeks, Etsy is all in on gifting. Our goal is to evolve Etsy from being one of the places you can go to find a gift to being the indispensable partner for all of your gifting missions. Not only is Gift Mode an important product launch, it represents a significant deviation from our normal approach where we historically launched a series of measurable incremental product improvements with minimal fanfare. With Gift Mode, we've meaningfully augmented our playbook to not only create a great new product experience, but also to create a consumer buzz about the product in a way we've never done before with unmissable stories, content and moments to build excitement.

我們有很多東西。但今天，我很高興向您介紹的一項大膽舉措是禮物模式。正如您在過去幾週中可能已經看到的那樣，Etsy 全力投入送禮領域。我們的目標是讓 Etsy 從您可以去尋找禮物的地方之一發展成為您所有送禮任務中不可或缺的合作夥伴。禮品模式不僅是一次重要的產品發布，而且與我們以往的常規方法有很大的不同，我們過去以最小的宣傳推出了一系列可衡量的增量產品改進。透過禮物模式，我們有意義地增強了我們的策略，不僅創造了出色的新產品體驗，而且以我們以前從未做過的方式，透過不容錯過的故事、內容和時刻來激發消費者對產品的熱議。

Why gifting for Etsy? Gifting can be stressful and fundamentally different than buying for yourself in multiple ways, knowing what to buy, the logistics of how, when and where your gift will arrive, what if the gift recipient doesn't like it and so on. A gift can be perceived as a representation of yourself or how much you care for the recipient, all of which makes it important and stressful.

為什麼要送給 Etsy 禮物？送禮可能會帶來壓力，並且與為自己購買有本質上的不同，方式多種多樣，知道要買什麼，禮物如何、何時何地到達的物流，如果禮物接收者不喜歡怎麼辦等等。禮物可以被視為代表您自己或您對接受者的關心程度，所有這些都使其變得重要且充滿壓力。

Given we're known for that special item made and sent with a human touch, we believe we're uniquely positioned to take the stress out of gift buying. Data supports that buyers crave help here. 2/3 of Americans struggle to find the perfect present. And the vast majority, 71%, have felt anxiety about gift shopping in the past year. We believe gifting is an ideal use case for Etsy.

鑑於我們以人性化製作和發送的特殊物品而聞名，我們相信我們具有獨特的優勢，可以減輕禮品購買的壓力。數據顯示買家渴望在這裡得到幫助。 2/3 的美國人很難找到完美的禮物。絕大多數人（71%）在過去的一年裡對購買禮物感到焦慮。我們相信送禮是 Etsy 的理想用例。

We have an enormous convinced that this is a space we can and should own and, if done well, can lead to market share gains across our core categories. After all, do you really want to buy that special gift at a mass retailer whose brand primarily stands for commoditized and cheap? Not only is gifting the perfect Etsy use case, it's an always-on opportunity for us to add value. Gifting is not just a seasonal buyer need, there are reasons to give gifts nearly every day of the year.

我們堅信，這是一個我們能夠而且應該擁有的領域，如果做得好，可以帶來我們核心類別的市場份額成長。畢竟，您真的想在品牌主要代表商品化和廉價的大型零售商處購買這份特別的禮物嗎？贈送完美的 Etsy 用例不僅是我們的增值機會，也是我們永遠的增值機會。送禮不只是買家的季節性需求，一年中幾乎每天都有送禮的理由。

According to our survey work, about 45% of gifts are purchased for personal occasions such as birthdays, births, weddings. Another 45% of all gifting happens for holidays, both seasonal and secular holidays, Valentine's Day, Mother's and Father's Day and more. And the remaining 10% are just because gifting occasions, missing a loved one or sending a thoughtful item to a sick relative.

根據我們的調查工作，大約 45% 的禮物是為生日、出生、婚禮等個人場合購買的。另外 45% 的禮物發生在節日期間，包括季節性節日和世俗節日、情人節、母親節和父親節等。剩下的 10% 只是因為送禮場合、想念所愛的人或給生病的親戚送一份貼心的物品。

Further, our data shows that U.S. consumers spend an average of $1,600 a year on gifts. We estimate that, on average, Etsy's U.S. buyers spend about 2% of that, just $38 for gifts on Etsy. There are literally millions of high-quality items on Etsy made and designed by real people that make great gifts for every occasion, budget and interest. Yet because we sell so many things for such a vast variety of purposes, it's difficult for people to know when to turn to us. And we often aren't the first place people think of or come to when they're on a gifting journey.

此外，我們的數據顯示，美國消費者每年平均在禮物上花費 1,600 美元。我們估計，Etsy 的美國買家平均花費約 2%，即在 Etsy 上購買禮物的費用僅為 38 美元。 Etsy 上有數百萬件由真人製作和設計的高品質商品，這些商品是適合各種場合、預算和興趣的絕佳禮物。然而，由於我們銷售的商品種類繁多，用途廣泛，因此人們很難知道何時求助於我們。當人們踏上送禮之旅時，我們往往不是第一個想到或來到的地方。

Only about 10% of U.S. shoppers name Etsy top of mind as the place to shop for gifts. And there's no single brand that really owns gifting. So we see this as an early stage opportunity. Another way to look at this opportunity, we estimate that only 43 million of our global Etsy buyers bought a gift from our sellers last year, which means that over half of our active buyers didn't and that's not even counting the tens of millions of other shoppers for whom gifting can be a compelling reason to start shopping on Etsy.

只有約 10% 的美國購物者將 Etsy 視為購買禮品的首選地點。而且沒有一個品牌真正擁有禮品權。所以我們認為這是一個早期機會。從另一個角度來看這個機會，我們估計去年只有4300 萬全球Etsy 買家從我們的賣家那裡購買了禮物，這意味著超過一半的活躍買家沒有購買禮物，而且這還不包括數千萬的買家。對於其他購物者來說，送禮可能是他們開始在 Etsy 上購物的一個令人信服的理由。

Gifting represents a huge TAM. We estimate the relevant opportunity to be about $200 billion in the U.S. alone. We believe our market share is about 1%. So even moving up to 2% would be a $2 billion growth opportunity for us. Obviously, that $2 billion is already captured in the very large TAM mentioned earlier. But by defining this space and investing with focus and gifting, we believe we can move the needle on growth.

送禮代表著巨大的 TAM。我們估計僅在美國相關機會就約為 2000 億美元。我們相信我們的市場佔有率約為1%。因此，即使成長 2%，對我們來說也將是 20 億美元的成長機會。顯然，這 20 億美元已經包含在前面提到的非常大的 TAM 中。但透過定義這個空間並進行重點投資和天賦，我們相信我們可以推動成長。

So what's Gift Mode? It's a whole new shopping experience where gifters simply enter a few quick details about the person they're shopping for, and we use the power of artificial intelligence and machine learning to match them with unique gifts from Etsy sellers. Creating a separate experience helps us know immediately if you're shopping for yourself or someone else, hugely beneficial information to help our search engines solve for your needs.

那什麼是禮物模式呢？這是一種全新的購物體驗，送禮者只需輸入有關他們所購物對象的一些快速詳細信息，我們就會利用人工智能和機器學習的力量將他們與 Etsy 賣家的獨特禮物相匹配。創建單獨的體驗可以幫助我們立即知道您是為自己購物還是為其他人購物，這是非常有用的信息，可以幫助我們的搜尋引擎滿足您的需求。

Within Gift Mode, we've identified more than 200 recipient personas, everything from rock climber to the crossword genius to the sandwich specialist. I've already told my family that when shopping for me, go straight to the music lover, the adventurer or the pet parent.

在禮物模式中，我們確定了 200 多個接收者角色，從攀岩者到填字遊戲天才再到三明治專家。我已經告訴我的家人，買東西給我時，直接去找音樂愛好者、冒險家或寵物父母。

We've incorporated some great new ways to help the procrastinator or alleviate the general concern that Etsy gifts won't arrive in time. Let's show you how it works.

我們採用了一些很棒的新方法來幫助拖延者或減輕對 Etsy 禮物無法及時送達的普遍擔憂。讓我們向您展示它是如何運作的。

(presentation)

（推介會）

Early indications are that Gift Mode is off to a good start, including positive sentiment from buyers and sellers in our social channels, very strong earned media coverage and nearly 6 million visits in the first 2 weeks. As you test and shop in Gift Mode, keep in mind that this is just the beginning. We have an exciting road map planned for getting discovery journeys, logistics and experiences to make Gift Mode easier and more delightful for both the gifter and the giftee, and to get both coming to us more often.

早期跡象表明，禮物模式有了一個良好的開端，包括買家和賣家在我們的社交管道中的積極情緒、非常強大的媒體報告以及前兩週近 600 萬次訪問。當您在禮品模式下測試和購物時，請記住這只是一個開始。我們規劃了一個令人興奮的路線圖，用於獲得發現之旅、物流和體驗，使禮品模式對禮品贈送者和受贈者來說更容易、更愉快，並讓雙方更頻繁地來找我們。

Before closing, I'll comment on the solid recent contributions from our subsidiaries. Depop's performance significantly improved in 2023, returning to healthy year-over-year GMS growth with very strong double-digit growth in the U.S. and strong growth in revenue. The U.S. is a large opportunity for Depop with the resale market forecasted to be over $40 billion by 2027, growing 9x faster than the broader retail clothing sector.

在結束之前，我將評論我們子公司最近做出的可靠貢獻。 Depop 的業績在 2023 年顯著改善，恢復了健康的同比 GMS 成長，美國市場實現了非常強勁的兩位數成長，營收也強勁成長。美國對 Depop 來說是一個巨大的機遇，預計到 2027 年，轉售市場將超過 400 億美元，成長速度比更廣泛的服裝零售業快 9 倍。

For the full year, Reverb significantly outperformed the musical instruments industry, and while GMS was about flat, revenue increased on a year-over-year basis. Reverb returned to GMS growth in the fourth quarter, primarily attributable to their focus on used and outlet inventory. The Reverb team made some organizational changes late in the year, which we currently expect will help the business achieve adjusted EBITDA profitability this year.

全年來看，Reverb 的表現明顯優於樂器產業，雖然 GMS 基本上持平，但營收卻較去年同期成長。 Reverb 在第四季度恢復了 GMS 成長，這主要歸功於他們對二手和直銷庫存的關注。 Reverb 團隊在今年底進行了一些組織變革，我們目前預計這將有助於該業務今年實現調整後的 EBITDA 獲利能力。

We believe the best is still ahead for Etsy. Right now is a moment when many consumers are feeling stretched with low confidence in the economy and less money to spend on discretionary items. But it's a moment that we believe will pass. Etsy's mission and compelling right to win remain relevant and sound. I'd like to officially welcome Mark Steinberg to Etsy's Board of Directors, and believe he'll bring unique and valuable experience as an investor and Board member in the technology, digital media and e-commerce industries. And most importantly, he shares our passion for Etsy's mission and excitement about our future growth opportunities.

我們相信 Etsy 的美好未來仍在前方。目前，許多消費者因對經濟信心不足、可用於購買非必需品的資金減少而感到捉襟見肘。但我們相信這一刻將會過去。 Etsy 的使命和令人信服的獲勝權利仍然具有相關性和合理性。我正式歡迎 Mark Steinberg 加入 Etsy 董事會，並相信他將作為技術、數位媒體和電子商務行業的投資者和董事會成員帶來獨特且寶貴的經驗。最重要的是，他與我們一樣對 Etsy 的使命充滿熱情，並對我們未來的成長機會感到興奮。

I want to thank the Etsy Reverb and Depop teams. You've all worked with incredible heart, creativity and determination to delight our buyers and help our sellers grow. We're going to lean in hard to our differentiation, and believe we have the financial strength to do so in a sustainable way. We started the year off with a bang with Gift Mode, and that's just the beginning. I'm confident we can get back to the kind of growth that we and all of our stakeholders can be proud of.

我要感謝 Etsy Reverb 和 Depop 團隊。你們都以令人難以置信的心、創造力和決心來取悅我們的買家並幫助我們的賣家成長。我們將努力實現差異化，並相信我們有足夠的財務實力以可持續的方式做到這一點。我們以禮物模式開啟了新的一年，而這只是開始。我相信我們能夠恢復我們和所有利益相關者都感到自豪的成長勢頭。

With that, I'll turn it over to Rachel.

有了這個，我會把它交給雷切爾。

Thanks, Josh, and thank you, everyone, for joining our fourth quarter call. My commentary today will cover consolidated results, key drivers of performance and Etsy marketplace stand-alone results where appropriate. As a reminder, we divested Elo7 on August 10, 2023. So please take that into consideration when you compare year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter consolidated results.

謝謝喬什，也謝謝大家參加我們的第四季電話會議。我今天的評論將涵蓋綜合業績、業績的關鍵驅動因素以及 Etsy 市場的獨立業績（如適用）。謹此提醒，我們於 2023 年 8 月 10 日剝離了 Elo7。因此，在比較同比和環比綜合業績時，請考慮到這一點。

Etsy delivered $4 billion in consolidated GMS, roughly flat to the fourth quarter of 2022. FX benefit moderated to 90 basis points in the fourth quarter, down from the 130 basis point tailwind in the third quarter. Revenue increased 4.3% year-over-year to a record $842 million and adjusted EBITDA grew to an all-time quarterly high of $236 million, up nearly 4% from the prior year. Note that Elo7's divestiture resulted in small headwinds to both GMS and revenue for the quarter and was modestly accretive to consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin.

Etsy 交付了 40 億美元的綜合 GMS，與 2022 年第四季基本持平。第四季的外匯收益放緩至 90 個基點，低於第三季的 130 個基點。營收年增 4.3%，達到創紀錄的 8.42 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長至 2.36 億美元，創歷史季度新高，較上年增長近 4%。請注意，Elo7 的剝離對該季度的 GMS 和收入造成了較小的阻力，並且對綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率略有增加。

Following a challenging October, Etsy's marketplace's year-over-year GMS trend line improved in November and December due to the solid holiday performance Josh described earlier. We had a nice end to the quarter with better than expected GMS growth across all of our brands, enabling us to come in slightly above our mid-December revised guidance for GMS in revenue.

經歷了充滿挑戰的 10 月之後，由於 Josh 之前描述的穩健的假期表現，Etsy 市場的 GMS 同比趨勢線在 11 月和 12 月有所改善。我們在本季末取得了不錯的成績，所有品牌的 GMS 成長都優於預期，這使我們的營收略高於 12 月中旬修訂後的 GMS 指引。

Within our consolidated year-over-year revenue growth of 4.3%, consolidated marketplace revenue grew 2.6% due to higher payments revenue related to a mix shift of more international transactions that yield higher fees, growth in subsidiary payments fees and higher offsite ads revenue. Services revenue was once again a key contributor to growth, increasing 9.4% year-over-year. Etsy Ads was the primary driver of this strength with continued improvements to add relevance. We delivered a consolidated take rate of 21%, largely flat to the prior quarter and slightly above the take rate implied at the midpoint of our quarterly guidance provided in mid-December.

在我們的綜合收入年增 4.3% 的情況下，綜合市場收入增長了 2.6%，這是由於更多國際交易產生更高費用、附屬支付費用增長以及站外廣告收入增加導致的支付收入增加。服務收入再次成為成長的主要貢獻者，年增 9.4%。 Etsy Ads 是這項優勢的主要推動者，並不斷改進以增加相關性。我們的綜合採用率為 21%，與上一季基本持平，略高於我們 12 月中旬提供的季度指導中點所隱含的採用率。

For the full year, our consolidated take rate increased approximately 160 basis points due to strong growth in Etsy Ads, our April 2022 transaction fee increase that was incremental for most of the first half of 2023 as well as payment fee expansion. Fourth quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 28% at the high end of our latest guidance but down about 10 basis points from last year, partially due to a lower gross margin, primarily the result of an increase in the cost of refunds for orders not covered by Etsy purchase protection as well as higher marketing spend.

全年來看，由於Etsy 廣告的強勁增長、我們2022 年4 月交易費的增加（在2023 年上半年大部分時間都是增量的）以及支付費用的增加，我們的綜合採用率增加了約160個基點。第四季綜合調整後EBITDA 利潤率為28%，處於我們最新指導的上限，但比去年下降了約10 個基點，部分原因是毛利率較低，主要是由於未涵蓋的訂單退款成本增加所致Etsy 購買保護以及更高的行銷支出。

Note that due to a discrete nonincome tax benefit related to Depop, our subsidiaries represented only about a 200 basis point margin headwind in Q4. Overall, we are very proud that even with investments in important product and marketing initiatives to make Etsy a great holiday shopping destination, fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA of $236 million was higher than any quarterly period, including pandemic peaks.

請注意，由於與 Depop 相關的離散非所得稅優惠，我們的子公司在第四季度僅出現了約 200 個基點的利潤逆風。總體而言，我們感到非常自豪的是，儘管對重要產品和行銷舉措進行了投資，使Etsy 成為一個出色的假日購物目的地，但2023 年第四季度調整後EBITDA 為2.36 億美元，高於任何季度，包括疫情高峰期。

During the fourth quarter, consolidated product development spend increased 4% year-over-year to $117 million. As a percent of revenue, we gained about 10 basis points of leverage from the prior year, largely due to the Elo7 divestiture. On a full year basis, Etsy marketplace product development investments delivered approximately $1.5 billion in incremental annualized GMS, a significant increase from last year. Stiff headwinds pressuring our baseline GMS offset some of these excellent gains. And we are also very pleased to report that product development launches increased approximately 30% from the prior year.

第四季度，綜合產品開發支出較去年同期成長 4%，達到 1.17 億美元。作為收入的百分比，我們的槓桿率比前一年增加了約 10 個基點，這主要是由於 Elo7 剝離。全年來看，Etsy 市場產品開發投資帶來了約 15 億美元的增量年度 GMS，比去年大幅成長。嚴峻的阻力給我們的基準 GMS 帶來壓力，抵消了其中一些出色的成果。我們也非常高興地報告，產品開發推出量比前一年增加了約 30%。

Fourth quarter consolidated marketing spend increased 7% year-over-year to $261 million, which drove marketing spend as a percent of revenue to increase modestly from the prior year. Given our focus on building Etsy's brand awareness for specific purchase occasions, our consolidated brand spending increased 24% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, with the vast majority of this increase coming from Etsy marketplace spend. Our holiday campaigns, which highlighted Etsy as an indispensable partner for all gifting missions, resonated with buyers.

第四季綜合行銷支出年增 7%，達到 2.61 億美元，這推動行銷支出佔營收的百分比較上年小幅成長。鑑於我們專注於在特定購買場合建立 Etsy 的品牌知名度，第四季度我們的綜合品牌支出年增 24%，其中絕大多數增長來自 Etsy 市場支出。我們的節日活動強調了 Etsy 作為所有送禮任務不可或缺的合作夥伴，引起了買家的共鳴。

Further, we significantly expanded Etsy's ROI on U.S. above-the-line spend during the quarter as our media efficiencies continued to improve. Consolidated performance marketing spend decreased 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter as we adjusted our strategy and improved ROI efficiencies. We dynamically pulled back on PLA spending as competitor spending pushed CPCs higher than the normal seasonality we see at this time of year.

此外，隨著我們的媒體效率持續提高，本季我們大幅擴大了 Etsy 在美國線上支出的投資報酬率。隨著我們調整策略並提高投資報酬率，第四季綜合績效行銷支出較去年同期下降 4%。我們動態地縮減了 PLA 支出，因為競爭對手的支出使 CPC 高於我們每年這個時候看到的正常季節性。

Offsetting this, we were able to lean into new channels and geographies, increasing spending in certain geographies and ramping mid-funnel investments with several social media partners. Our site-wide 24-hour Cyber Monday promotion funded with a small amount of Etsy marketing dollars delivered solid incremental GMS and a strong ROI. For the full year, consolidated marketing spend increased 7% year-over-year, and our consolidated marketing spend as a percent of revenue decreased modestly to 27.6%. Etsy's stand-alone marketplace performance marketing spend delivered approximately $2.6 billion in incremental annualized GMS, up roughly 5% from 2022.

為了抵​​消這一影響，我們能夠向新的管道和地區傾斜，增加在某些地區的支出，並與多個社交媒體合作夥伴加大管道中部投資。我們以少量 Etsy 行銷資金資助的全站 24 小時網路星期一促銷活動提供了穩定的增量 GMS 和強大的投資回報率。全年綜合行銷支出年增 7%，綜合行銷支出佔收入的百分比小幅下降至 27.6%。 Etsy 的獨立市場績效行銷支出帶來了約 26 億美元的增量年化 GMS，較 2022 年成長約 5%。

Moving now to our Etsy marketplace GMS and buyer metrics. During the fourth quarter, Etsy marketplace GMS decreased 1.4% year-over-year to $3.6 billion. Overall, headwinds continued, including pressure on consumer discretionary product spending, softness in the Home & Living category and a highly competitive retail environment focused on deep discounting. Our year-over-year Etsy marketplace GMS trend line improved in November and December following the challenging October that we described on our November call, bringing results in ahead of our internal expectations. International markets were once again a bright spot with Etsy marketplace GMS, excluding U.S. domestic, up 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. The growth was led by positive trends in the U.K. and strength in the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria with largely flat trends in Germany.

現在轉向我們的 Etsy 市場 GMS 和買家指標。第四季度，Etsy 市場 GMS 年減 1.4%，至 36 億美元。總體而言，不利因素仍在繼續，包括非必需消費品支出面臨的壓力、家居和生活類別的疲軟以及以大幅折扣為重點的高度競爭的零售環境。繼我們在 11 月電話會議中描述的充滿挑戰的 10 月之後，我們的 Etsy 市場 GMS 趨勢線在 11 月和 12 月有所改善，結果超出了我們的內部預期。國際市場再次成為亮點，Etsy 市場 GMS（不包括美國國內）第四季年增 4%。這一增長是由英國的積極趨勢以及荷蘭、瑞士和奧地利的強勢帶動的，而德國的趨勢基本上持平。

This slide shows full year 2023 Etsy marketplace GMS performance for our top 6 categories, which represented approximately 87% of GMS. Positive year-over-year GMS trends in apparel and paper and party were offset by softness in Home & Living, jewelry and accessories and craft supplies. We ended the year with a record 92 million active buyers up 3% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

這張投影片顯示了 2023 年全年 Etsy 市場 6 個類別的 GMS 表現，約佔 GMS 的 87%。服裝、紙張和派對領域同比大湄公河次區域的正面趨勢被家居生活、珠寶和配件以及工藝用品的疲軟所抵消。截至年底，我們的活躍買家數量達到創紀錄的 9,200 萬，年增 3%，這是連續第四個季度同比增長。

U.S. active buyer trends continue to improve. International buyer growth remained strong, and we had 6% growth in buyers who identify as male. We added over 8 million Etsy marketplace new buyers in the fourth quarter, up over 40% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and we reactivated nearly 10 million lapse buyers, a record number, up 13% year-over-year and up 122% from 2019.

美國活躍買家趨勢持續改善。國際買家成長依然強勁，其中男性買家成長了 6%。我們在第四季度增加了超過800 萬Etsy 市場新買家，比2019 年第四季度增長了40% 以上，並且重新激活了近1000 萬失效買家，創歷史新高，同比增長13%，增長122 %從 2019 年開始。

Lastly, habitual buyer trends remained stable in the quarter with over 7 million of these loyal buyers at the end of the quarter, largely in line with the prior 2 quarters. Our number of repeat buyers continue to grow a healthy 4% year-over-year to 37 million. GMS per active buyer on a trailing 12-month basis for the Etsy marketplace continued to stabilize sequentially but declined 4% year-over-year to $126 in the fourth quarter yet remains 22% higher than the fourth quarter of 2019. Additional Etsy marketplace metrics can be found in the appendix to this deck as posted to our website.

最後，本季的習慣買家趨勢保持穩定，截至本季末，忠實買家數量超過 700 萬，與前兩季基本持平。我們的回頭客數量持續健康成長，年增 4%，達到 3,700 萬人。 Etsy 市場過去 12 個月的每位活躍買家 GMS 繼續穩定，但第四季度同比下降 4% 至 126 美元，但仍比 2019 年第四季度高出 22%。其他 Etsy 市場指標可以在我們網站上發布的本套牌的附錄中找到。

Moving now to the balance sheet. As of December 31, we had $1.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short- and long-term investments. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased a total of $93 million in stock under our $1 billion June 2023 Board authorized repurchase program, of which approximately $724 million remained available as of December 31. Our operational rigor and capital-light business model allowed us to deliver about $754 million in consolidated adjusted EBITDA in 2023 and a 27.4% margin and to convert nearly 90% of that EBITDA to free cash flow.

現在轉向資產負債表。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 12 億美元的現金、現金等價物以及短期和長期投資。在第四季度，我們根據2023 年6 月董事會授權的10 億美元回購計畫回購了總計9,300 萬美元的股票，其中截至12 月31 日仍有約7.24 億美元可用。我們嚴格的營運和輕資本的業務模式使我們能夠實現2023 年綜合調整後 EBITDA 約為 7.54 億美元，利潤率為 27.4%，並將近 90% 的 EBITDA 轉換為自由現金流。

Our free cash flow in the fourth quarter was a healthy $283 million. As we continue to focus on growing our EBITDA and cash flow, all else being equal, we would likely see our gross leverage ratio continue to trend down. We also expect to retain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity relative to our current leverage levels to manage the business across various macroeconomic cycles and support continued organic investments as well as capital return to shareholders.

第四季我們的自由現金流為健康的 2.83 億美元。隨著我們繼續專注於增加 EBITDA 和現金流，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們可能會看到我們的總槓桿率繼續呈下降趨勢。我們還期望保持強勁的資產負債表和相對於我們當前槓桿水平而言充足的流動性，以在各個宏觀經濟週期中管理業務並支持持續的有機投資以及股東的資本回報。

We remain committed to an active and disciplined capital allocation strategy that prioritizes opportunities we believe will generate the highest level of long-term shareholder value. In the past, we have communicated our philosophy to offset dilution from stock-based compensation by repurchasing our shares. In 2023, capital return accounted for nearly 90% of our free cash flow, demonstrating a shift in our capital return strategy to more intentionally return a higher percentage of free cash flow, especially during times of volatility in our stock and when valuations are meaningfully below our view of fair value. We continue to see attractive organic growth opportunities for Etsy, and we expect to balance capital return, appropriate leverage and liquidity and investments in our business to deliver a long-term shareholder value.

我們仍然致力於積極和嚴格的資本配置策略，優先考慮我們認為將產生最高水準的長期股東價值的機會。過去，我們曾傳達過透過回購股票來抵銷股票薪資稀釋的理念。 2023 年，資本回報占我們自由現金流的近90%，這表明我們的資本回報策略發生了轉變，更有意識地回報了更高比例的自由現金流，特別是在我們股票波動時期和估值大幅低於時我們對公允價值的看法。我們繼續看到 Etsy 具有吸引力的有機成長機會，我們希望平衡資本回報、適當的槓桿和流動性以及業務投資，以實現長期股東價值。

Before turning to our guidance, I'll discuss our recent workforce realignment, which brought core Etsy marketplace headcount to about 1,780 employees at the start of 2024. As you know, we were lean even during the high-growth periods, consistently maintaining a disciplined approach to headcount and then pulling back our pace of hiring proactively as we experienced GMS headwinds in early 2022. For 2024, we wanted to build a road map designed to reaccelerate growth while also delivering very strong levels of profitability. We made some tough choices about how to organize our team from the top down, focused on driving efficiencies to further speed product development and creating more impactful marketing and customer experiences designed to build frequency and loyalty, as Josh described.

在轉向我們的指導之前，我將討論我們最近的員工隊伍調整，到2024 年初，Etsy 市場的核心員工數量達到了約1,780 名員工。如您所知，即使在高增長時期，我們也保持著精簡，始終保持嚴格的紀律我們在 2022 年初經歷了 GMS 的逆風，因此主動縮減了招聘步伐。對於 2024 年，我們希望制定一個路線圖，旨在重新加速增長，同時實現非常強勁的盈利水平。正如喬許所描述的，我們就如何從上到下組織我們的團隊做出了一些艱難的選擇，重點是提高效率，進一步加快產品開發速度，並創造更有影響力的行銷和客戶體驗，旨在建立頻率和忠誠度。

In addition to our focus on people costs, we've taken a number of actions intended to ensure margin holds stable or expands in 2024, including reducing certain benefits and continuing to optimize our cost base. All in all, we reduced our previous internal projections for total 2024 operating costs by over $90 million. Most of these savings are being reinvested back into the all-important growth investments we plan to make this year, including the modest addition of critical hires. We are optimistic that the significant productivity and measurable value creation we see from our team can fuel Etsy's growth this year.

除了關注人員成本之外，我們還採取了一系列行動，旨在確保利潤率在 2024 年保持穩定或擴大，包括減少某些福利並繼續優化我們的成本基礎。總而言之，我們將先前對 2024 年總營運成本的內部預測減少了超過 9,000 萬美元。這些節省的大部分資金將重新投入到我們今年計劃進行的最重要的成長投資中，包括適度增加關鍵員工。我們樂觀地認為，我們團隊的顯著生產力和可衡量的價值創造可以推動 Etsy 今年的成長。

Now turning to our outlook. It remains a challenging macro environment with consumer sentiment in the U.S. and international markets remaining low, making us cautious in our forecasting at the start of the year. Consolidated GMS for the first quarter of 2024 is currently estimated to decline in the low single-digit range on a year-over-year basis. This guidance reflects our slow start to the quarter and our current expectation that GMS for the core Etsy marketplace improves as we move through the rest of the quarter as a result of our planned product and marketing investments. However, if our trends fail to improve as we currently expect, this could become a mid-single-digit decline. Reverb and Depop are expected to provide a tailwind within the consolidated performance.

現在轉向我們的展望。宏觀環境仍然充滿挑戰，美國和國際市場的消費者信心仍然低迷，這使我們在年初的預測中保持謹慎。目前預計 2024 年第一季的綜合 GMS 年比將出現低個位數下降。這項指導反映了我們本季開局緩慢，以及我們目前的預期，即隨著我們計劃的產品和行銷投資的結果，隨著本季度剩餘時間的推移，核心 Etsy 市場的 GMS 將會得到改善。然而，如果我們的趨勢未能像我們目前預期的那樣改善，則可能會出現中等個位數的下降。 Reverb 和 Depop 預計將在綜合性能中提供推動力。

We estimate Q1 2024 take rate to be between 21% and 21.5%. This can be used to estimate revenue range for the quarter. Note that earlier today, we announced to our seller community that we are strengthening our new shop onboarding process to continue to promote a trusted marketplace, including introducing a seller onboarding fee. This initiative requires certain new technology investments, particularly for seller verification, so the net benefit margin be nominal. We currently anticipate that our consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will be approximately 26%, reflecting a heightened level of investment in the launch of Gift Mode, particularly costs associated with our big game advertising.

我們預計 2024 年第一季的利用率將在 21% 至 21.5% 之間。這可用於估計該季度的收入範圍。請注意，今天早些時候，我們向賣家社群宣布，我們正在加強新的商店入職流程，以繼續推廣值得信賴的市場，包括引入賣家入會費。這項舉措需要某些新技術投資，特別是對於賣方驗證，因此淨利潤率是名義上的。我們目前預計，我們的綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 26%，反映出推出禮品模式的投資水準較高，特別是與我們的大型遊戲廣告相關的成本。

Our subsidiaries are expected to pose about a 300 basis point headwind as their revenue flows through at lower margins, largely because of our take rates. We currently expect the first quarter to be our low point in year-over-year growth for both GMS and revenue as we begin to see the expected benefits of our product and marketing investments kick in starting in the same quarter. We currently expect that consolidated revenue growth should outpace GMS growth in 2024, with full year to create at or ahead of the Q1 level with further expansion of Etsy Ads and the annualized impact of the recent Etsy Payments expansion into 7 new markets being the primary drivers of improvement.

我們的子公司預計將帶來約 300 個基點的阻力，因為它們的收入流向利潤率較低，這主要是因為我們的佣金率。目前，我們預計第一季將是 GMS 和營收年增的最低點，因為我們開始看到我們的產品和行銷投資的預期效益從同一季度開始顯現。我們目前預計，2024 年合併收入成長將超過 GMS 成長，全年將達到或領先於第一季度水平，Etsy 廣告的進一步擴張以及近期 Etsy Payments 擴展到 7 個新市場的年化影響是主要驅動力的改進。

Beyond this, we'll continue to look for ways to drive a fair exchange of value for all 3 of our marketplaces. We currently expect to maintain very healthy margins with consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin in 2024, at least similar to the level we delivered in 2023. We are energized by our portfolio of growth initiatives for 2024, which we believe can reignite our growth despite the continued challenging macro.

除此之外，我們將繼續尋找方法來推動我們所有 3 個市場的公平價值交換。目前，我們預計2024 年綜合調整後EBITDA 利潤率將保持非常健康的利潤率，至少與我們在2023 年實現的水平相似。我們對2024 年的成長計畫組合充滿活力，我們相信，儘管面臨持續的挑戰，這可以重新點燃我們的成長宏。

Thank you all for your time today. I'll now turn the call over to the operator to take your questions.

感謝大家今天抽出時間。我現在將把電話轉給接線員回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Nikhil Devnani with Bernstein.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Nikhil Devnani 和 Bernstein。

Thanks for providing '24 commentary as well. I just wanted to ask about the GMS outlook a little bit more. Can you talk about the kind of magnitude of improvement that you're expecting to see in GMS as the year goes on? Do you think that there's line of sight back to positive year-on-year growth as well at some point in the year? And then as a follow-on, could you provide some clarity around the product and marketing initiatives that are kind of backing up this outlook for improvement in GMV?

也感謝您提供 '24 評論。我只是想多了解 GMS 的前景。您能談談您預計今年 GMS 會有多大程度的改進嗎？您認為今年某個時候會出現年比正成長的前景嗎？接下來，您能否澄清一下支持 GMV 改善前景的產品和行銷計劃？

Okay. So in terms of the magnitude of the growth, we gave you what we're comfortable giving you right now. So anything more than that, if we could have been more specific, we would have in terms of when do we get back to positive growth and et cetera. It's certainly our aspiration. We believe we have every right to be growing not just positive but faster than e-commerce. And we think especially when our category stop being under such pressure and when discretionary consumer product spend, in particular, stocks being under so much pressure, that's going to be very helpful. We do think we outgrew our categories yet again, our pure-play competitors in our categories yet again in the fourth quarter.

好的。因此，就成長幅度而言，我們為您提供了我們現在願意提供的內容。因此，除此之外，如果我們能更具體的話，我們就會知道什麼時候才能恢復正成長等等。這當然是我們的願望。我們相信，我們完全有權利實現不僅積極成長而且比電子商務更快的成長。我們認為，特別是當我們的類別不再承受如此大的壓力時，當非必需消費品支出時，特別是股票承受如此大的壓力時，這將非常有幫助。我們確實認為我們的成長再次超過了我們的類別，我們的類別中的純競爭對手在第四季度再次超過了我們的類別。

In terms of the product and marketing initiatives that we expect to drive a lot of growth, we laid them out in the call. And so first on consideration, that is the biggest thing. People thinking to look on Etsy because when they do think to look on Etsy, they usually find something really compelling. So Gift Mode is a great example of us giving you a moment in time when you should really think, I need to buy a gift. I want to go to Etsy. And gifting is an all year kind of thing. It's not just Mother's Day and Christmas, there's birthdays, anniversaries, back to school and on and on.

就我們預計將推動大量成長的產品和行銷舉措而言，我們在電話會議中進行了闡述。因此，首先要考慮的是，這是最重要的事情。人們想要在 Etsy 上查看，因為當他們確實想在 Etsy 上查看時，他們通常會發現一些真正引人注目的東西。因此，禮物模式是一個很好的例子，我們為您提供了一個讓您真正思考「我需要買禮物」的時刻。我想去埃西。送禮是全年都會發生的事。這不僅是母親節和聖誕節，還有生日、週年紀念、返校日等等。

And on other key elements in consideration, we said we're in early stages of planning a loyalty program, which is designed to drive consideration among loyal users. More value, more in quality and more in reliability. And I think that, that portfolio of bold initiatives, I think, can do a lot to continue to drive growth, combined with compelling marketing campaigns. And we're going to continue to work through the funnel on really compelling marketing campaigns as well.

關於其他考慮的關鍵要素，我們表示我們正處於規劃忠誠度計畫的早期階段，該計畫旨在提高忠誠用戶的考慮。更高的價值、更高的品質和更高的可靠性。我認為，大膽的舉措組合與引人注目的行銷活動相結合，可以在繼續推動成長方面發揮很大作用。我們也將繼續透過這個管道進行真正引人注目的行銷活動。

Our next question comes from Ygal Arounian with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ygal Arounian。

I'm going to follow up on that a little bit, maybe more narrowly focused, I guess, on the 1Q guidance. And what -- it sounds like sitting here today, we're down mid-single digits, but kind of expectation is that over the course of the quarter, that starts to improve.

我將對此進行一些跟進，我想可能更集中於第一季的指導。聽起來今天坐在這裡，我們的業績下降了個位數，但預計在本季度中，情況會開始改善。

What happened so quickly, I guess, like between now and the end of March or it's just a little bit over a month. And then again, also just to dig into the marketing a little bit more. So you've pulled back a little bit on performance marketing. Some of that is efficiency. Some of that is coming from the competitive environment or spending more brand. Typically, we think of the payback period for the brand marketing being a little bit longer. You're expecting that to drive kind of incremental growth, both in the quarter and throughout the year. So are you starting to see the benefits of that? I know it's been an investment over multiple years here. Is that starting to pay back the way you like? Or how should we think about that?

我想，事情發生得太快了，例如從現在到三月底，或只是一個多月的時間。話又說回來，也只是為了進一步深入研究行銷。所以你在效果行銷方面有所退縮。其中一些是效率。其中一些來自競爭環境或花費更多的品牌費用。通常，我們認為品牌行銷的投資回收期會稍長。您預計這將推動本季和全年的增量成長。那麼您開始看到這樣做的好處了嗎？我知道這是多年來的一項投資。這是否開始以你喜歡的方式回報？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

I can start to jump on. I mean so the way -- you're right that January was a little bumpy, and that's the sort of the baseline for which we are able to provide guidance for the rest of the quarter. The way we do our planning is we estimate the incremental GMS would be generated from each discrete product, and each discrete marketing investment that we make. They start to stack on top of each other, and we do a pretty good estimation and testing before we build our forecast.

我可以開始跳了。我的意思是這樣的——你說得對，一月份有點坎坷，這就是我們能夠為本季度剩餘時間提供指導的基線。我們進行規劃的方式是估計每個離散產品以及我們所做的每個離散行銷投資將產生增量 GMS。它們開始相互疊加，在建立預測之前，我們會進行相當好的估計和測試。

So we have a pretty high confidence level in what we think those things will deliver. So what we're looking at that remains in the rest of quarter, we feel good about being able to step on incremental GMS from where we are today. We have experimented with our marketing spend, and we leaned back a little bit in the early part of the quarter on some of our [DLA] spend.

因此，我們對這些東西將帶來的成果充滿信心。因此，我們所關注的仍然是本季剩下的時間，我們對能夠從今天的情況中邁出增量 GMS 感到很高興。我們對行銷支出進行了試驗，並在本季度初稍微減少了一些 [DLA] 支出。

We're now back to our normal levels. So we think we'll get some incremental benefit from just the regular business-as-usual marketing spend, and you saw us do very large first time ever big game television ad that is -- that ad continues to run through the rest of the quarter as we [winning] accolades and awards from the advertising world and starting to gain some traction. I think the -- it's something like 7 to 11 views actually create that stickiness of an ad. So we're exited about with that brand -- the repetition of that campaign and that brand can do for consideration with our customers. And there's a lot of things we wrapped around that (inaudible) our Chief Gifting Officer and a lot of promotional campaigns that we also laid down to attract people in marketing and product, I think we expect to deliver at the GMS in the quarter.

我們現在已恢復到正常水平。因此，我們認為，我們將從常規的照常行銷支出中獲得一些增量收益，並且您看到我們首次製作了大型遊戲電視廣告，即廣告將繼續貫穿其餘部分。我們在本季度贏得了廣告界的讚譽和獎項，並開始獲得一些關注。我認為，大約 7 到 11 次瀏覽實際上創造了廣告的黏性。因此，我們對這個品牌感到興奮——重複活動以及該品牌可以為我們的客戶考慮。我們圍繞著我們的首席禮品官（聽不清楚）做了很多事情，我們還制定了很多促銷活動來吸引行銷和產品方面的人員，我認為我們預計將在本季度的 GMS 上交付。

Yes. And just to build on that. We have been very focused year after year on what is the value creation of every single squad and what is the value creation of every single dollar we spend in marketing. It has been a very big focus of ours, and we think we're pretty good at it. Well, obviously, we can't predict with perfect accuracy what's going to happen with the baseline, what's going to happen overall consumer discretionary spend in our categories. And so that's the unknown, and we'll wait and see. But we give you the best guidance we know, and we do -- we have reason to believe that we should see trends improve in the second half of the quarter based on the work we're doing.

是的。並以此為基礎。年復一年，我們非常關注每支球隊的價值創造是什麼，以及我們在行銷上花費的每一美元的價值創造是什麼。這是我們非常關注的焦點，我們認為我們非常擅長。嗯，顯然，我們無法完全準確地預測基線會發生什麼，我們類別中的整體消費者可自由支配支出將會發生什麼。所以這還是個未知數，我們拭目以待。但我們會為您提供我們所知的最佳指導，而且我們確實有理由相信，根據我們正在做的工作，我們應該會在本季度下半年看到趨勢有所改善。

Okay. Great. So you might step back a little bit further into performance? Has the environment there changed at all?

好的。偉大的。那麼您可能會進一步退一步討論效能嗎？那裡的環境有什麼改變嗎？

Yes. So performance is dynamic on a really hour-to-hour basis, depending on the ROI we're seeing on every dollar we're spending. And we've got pretty sophisticated algorithms that work on is this bid -- is this click worth this much right now and how much should we bid. And so to the extent that CPCs rise, we naturally pull back. Or to the extent that CPC is lower, we naturally lean in.

是的。因此，性能實際上每小時都是動態的，這取決於我們所花費的每一美元的投資回報。我們有相當複雜的演算法來處理這個出價——這個點擊現在值這麼多嗎？我們應該出價多少。因此，隨著每次點擊費用的上升，我們自然會退縮。或者說每次點擊費用越低，我們自然就會傾向。

The other thing, by the way, it's not just CPCs, it's also conversion rates. So in times when people are really budget constrained, we see them actually -- we see conversion rate across the industry go down. We see people compare some shop a lot more. And so we are looking at all of that and not humans, but machines using AI are looking at a very sophisticated way at what's happening with conversion rate right now, what's happening with CPCs right now. And therefore, how much is each visit worth and how much should we be bidding. And it naturally titrates. It's one of the reason why it's hard to pinpoint exactly what our margin is going to be in any given quarter because it's based on what's the ROI we're getting right now and we'll naturally lean in or pull back.

順便說一句，另一件事不僅僅是每次點擊費用，還有轉換率。因此，當人們的預算確實受到限制時，我們實際上看到了整個行業的轉換率下降。我們看到人們更多地比較一些商店。因此，我們正在研究所有這些，而不是人類，但是使用人工智慧的機器正在以一種非常複雜的方式來研究目前的轉換率、每次點擊費用的情況。因此，每次訪問的價值是多少，我們應該出價多少。它自然滴定。這就是為什麼很難準確地確定我們在任何特定季度的利潤率是多少的原因之一，因為它基於我們現在獲得的投資回報率，我們自然會傾斜或收縮。

What we won't do is spend unprofitably, not on purpose. So we work hard to try to understand what is the return we're getting. And if the market, we think, is getting irrational or at least irrational for us, we pull back.

我們不會做無利可圖的、非故意的支出。因此，我們努力嘗試了解我們獲得的回報是什麼。如果我們認為市場變得不合理，或至少對我們來說不合理，我們就會撤退。

Our next question comes from Lee Horowitz with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lee Horowitz。

Maybe 2, if I could. Josh, you highlighted 2 charts in the deck, one that shows Etsy's share gains versus pure-play comps. It seems to stand somewhat in contrast to the overall e-commerce market. But Etsy is growing more slowly. It seems that would suggest that big box non-pure play competitors are taking share of the overall.

如果可以的話，也許是 2 個。 Josh，您在這組圖表中突出顯示了 2 個圖表，其中一個顯示了 Etsy 與純遊戲比較的份額增益。這似乎與整個電子商務市場形成了鮮明的對比。但 Etsy 的成長速度更為緩慢。這似乎表明大型非純粹競爭者正在佔據整體份額。

I guess, why do you think consumers are leaning into these platforms that, as you say, compete on shorter speeds, perhaps a couple of bucks in price and not leaning into things like product quality or uniqueness? And maybe how do you think that may evolve in '24 and beyond? And one follow-up, if I could.

我想，你認為為什麼消費者會傾向於這些平台，正如你所說，這些平台以更短的速度競爭，也許價格只有幾美元，而不是傾向於產品品質或獨特性之類的東西？也許您認為 24 世紀及以後會如何發展？如果可以的話，還有一個後續行動。

Great. Great question. So look, let's put aside travel, online dining. If you look at e-commerce very broadly, it picks up things that are totally unrelated to Etsy. When you put those aside, you really look at just product, it's very clear that the people gaining share are Amazon, Walmart, Temu and Shein. And almost everyone else is losing share. A number of other people that are growing quickly, you can count one hand. Almost everyone is losing share to Amazon, Walmart, Temu and Shein.

偉大的。很好的問題。所以看，讓我們把旅行、網路餐飲放在一邊。如果你從更廣泛的角度看待電子商務，你會發現它會發現與 Etsy 完全無關的東西。當你把這些放在一邊時，你真的只專注於產品，很明顯，獲得份額的人是亞馬遜、沃爾瑪、Temu 和 Shein。幾乎所有其他人都在失去份額。其他成長速度快的人數量，一隻手就能數過來。幾乎所有公司的市佔率都在被亞馬遜、沃爾瑪、Temu 和 Shein 奪走。

And so, first of all, those are people -- particularly if we look at Amazon and Walmart, and they're really the big winners. If you look at who's actually, in terms of volume, taking volume in e-commerce, they sell essentials. And when you read their earnings call scripts, what they say in their earnings call is what's driving their sales is essentials, and their headwinds are discretionary products.

因此，首先，這些都是人類——特別是如果我們看看亞馬遜和沃爾瑪，他們確實是大贏家。如果你看看誰實際上在電子商務中佔據了銷售，你會發現他們銷售的是必需品。當你閱讀他們的財報電話會議腳本時，他們在財報電話會議中所說的是推動銷售的因素是必需品，而他們的阻力是可自由支配的產品。

The second thing is all 4 of those brands stand for deep discounting. And the trends we see right now are people feel their wallet is under a lot of pressure. By the way, tax returns look like they're going to be lower this year than they were last year. You still hear a low consumer confidence and concerns about inflation on core things like food prices and people, when they have discretionary dollars, want to spend them on travel and want to spend them on dining. And so in this moment, many people are looking for the cheapest way to buy something when they need to buy something that is discretionary.

第二件事是這四個品牌都支持大幅折扣。我們現在看到的趨勢是人們感覺他們的錢包承受著很大的壓力。順便說一句，今年的報稅表看起來會比去年低。你仍然會聽到消費者信心低落，以及對食品價格等核心問題通膨的擔憂，以及當人們擁有可自由支配的美元時，他們想把錢花在旅行上、想把錢花在餐飲上。因此，此時此刻，許多人在需要購買可自由支配的東西時都在尋找最便宜的購買方式。

Now in that environment, Etsy added 8 million new buyers. Etsy buyers spent $3.6 billion on the Etsy marketplace in the fourth quarter alone. So tens of millions of people or 92 million people, in fact, are opening their wallet to come and buy something on Etsy even in this environment. And in fact, the average buyer on Etsy is spending 20% more, more than 20% more today than they were pre-pandemic. But this is a time when I think products that are not the cheapest possible are out of favor. And I don't think that's forever. When I imagine going forward, does everyone always want the cheapest version of any given product? No, absolutely not. I think that, that trend -- this is a cycle. We're in a moment in the cycle. And I think we'll move to better moments in the cycle, hopefully soon.

現在，在這種環境下，Etsy 增加了 800 萬新買家。光是第四季度，Etsy 買家就在 Etsy 市場上花費了 36 億美元。因此，即使在這種環境下，仍有數千萬人（即 9,200 萬人）願意打開錢包來 Etsy 上購物。事實上，Etsy 上的平均買家如今的支出比疫情前多了 20%，超過 20%。但現在我認為不是最便宜的產品就會失寵。我認為這不會是永遠的。當我想像未來時，每個人是否總是想要任何給定產品的最便宜版本？不，絕對不是。我認為，這種趨勢——這是一個週期。我們正處於循環中的某個時刻。我認為我們將進入周期中更好的時刻，希望很快。

Can I add just a couple of quick points about things that are happening that points specifically to January and Q1 activities that are happening in the macro world? One, at Christmas time, people get a lot of gift cards. And today, Etsy doesn't have a gift card program and they come into January and they spend -- they go into retail and they spend their gift cards at places like Walmart and Amazon.

我可以簡單地添加一些關於正在發生的事情的要點嗎？這些事情特別針對宏觀世界中正在發生的 1 月和第一季的活動？第一，在聖誕節期間，人們會收到很多禮品卡。如今，Etsy 沒有禮品卡計劃，他們進入一月份進行消費——他們進入零售業，在沃爾瑪和亞馬遜等地方消費禮品卡。

Second, they are doing a lot of returns where they're going physically into the stores and doing a lot of returns. And the third is that big-box stores are doing all their clearance right now. So things are continuing to be at deep, deep discounts, as Josh just said. Those are 3 things that, in the early part of this year, Etsy really wasn't in the game on those 3 areas and I think affected our January's GMS to some extent.

其次，他們進行了大量的退貨，他們親自進入商店並進行了大量的退貨。第三，大型商店現在正在清倉。因此，正如喬許剛才所說，商品繼續大幅折扣。今年年初，Etsy 確實沒有參與這 3 個領域的三件事，我認為這在一定程度上影響了我們 1 月的 GMS。

Very helpful. And then maybe one follow-up on marketing. How do you guys just think about, I guess, efficiently deploying performance marketing dollars in 2024? Obviously, you talked about dynamic -- the models are dynamic. But do you feel like you need to perhaps lower the ROI thresholds given a weaker consumer as you called out, but rising auction costs from those competitors? I guess, just help me understand how you guys maybe are adjusting the way you guys think about marketing given the challenging underlying dynamics of higher costs but tougher demand.

很有幫助。然後也許是行銷的後續行動。我猜你們如何考慮在 2024 年有效部署效果行銷資金？顯然，你談到了動態——模型是動態的。但是，您是否覺得您可能需要降低投資報酬率閾值，因為正如您所呼籲的那樣，消費者的實力較弱，但這些競爭對手的拍賣成本卻不斷上升？我想，請幫助我了解你們如何調整你們對行銷的思考方式，因為成本更高但需求更嚴峻的潛在動態具有挑戰性。

Well, the models automatically incorporate. Well, there's some lag, it takes a couple of weeks for them to experience the fact that conversion rates, for example, are down or up for them to incorporate that. But things like weaker demand turning, meaning conversion rate goes down, the models all automatically incorporate that.

嗯，模型會自動合併。嗯，有一些滯後，例如，他們需要幾週的時間才能體驗到轉換率下降或上升的事實，才能將其納入其中。但諸如需求轉向疲軟（意味著轉換率下降）之類的事情，模型都會自動納入這一點。

Where we're always refining our understanding is we run an incrementality test, for example, on PLAs, twice a year. We hold part of the country dark. And we look at if we hadn't bought that click, would we still have gotten it anyway. And it turns out that often the answer may be yes.

我們一直在完善我們的理解的地方是，我們每年進行兩次增量測試，例如對 PLA 進行測試。我們讓這個國家的一部分陷入黑暗。我們會考慮如果我們沒有購買這種點擊，我們是否仍然會得到它。事實證明，答案往往是肯定的。

It also may be that someone didn't click on Etsy, but they saw Etsy, it made them think, oh, Etsy sells that, and they come without having clicked. And so you can over or under attribute. And so several times a year, we actually run a test to determine what we call incrementality test, how much of the final sale value should we attribute to the fact that someone clicked on that ad. And that changes over time as well based on competitive environments. So we are constantly adjusting based on that.

也可能有人沒有點擊 Etsy，但他們看到了 Etsy，這讓他們想，哦，Etsy 賣這個，他們沒有點擊就來了。因此您可以高於或低於屬性。因此，我們實際上每年都會進行幾次測試，以確定我們所說的增量測試，即我們應該將最終銷售價值的數量歸因於有人點擊了該廣告。而且這種情況也會隨著時間的推移以及競爭環境的變化而改變。所以我們會在此基礎上不斷調整。

And another input that goes into the model is what I think about things like future take rate. Would you pay today. Would that impact the LTV of a buyer If you think your take rate might go up over time or if you think you might get more or less frequency over time. So there's some amount of judgment you make, but the models do most of the work, and we really do try to let the models do the work so that we aren't tempted to irrationally over or underinvest in any given quarter.

模型中的另一個輸入是我對未來採取率等問題的看法。今天你付錢嗎？如果您認為您的購買率可能會隨著時間的推移而上升，或者您認為您的購買頻率可能會隨著時間的推移而增加或減少，這會影響買家的生命週期價值嗎？因此，您需要做出一些判斷，但模型完成了大部分工作，我們確實嘗試讓模型完成工作，這樣我們就不會在任何特定季度非理性地過度投資或投資不足。

That was a great point on the LTV. We're constantly updating the models we sell TV with every new product launch that we have. As TV goes up, incorporated in the attribution model, so that's happening.

這是 LTV 的一個重要觀點。每次推出新產品時，我們都會不斷更新我們銷售的電視型號。隨著電視的普及，並納入歸因模型，這種情況正在發生。

The other thing is you talk about performance ads specifically, but we've been able to start to spend more money in new channels like paid social and in new geographies. And we've experimented with other kinds of marketing like we use Etsy's P&L to do some Etsy funded promotional campaign. So we're constantly -- it will be great to get another Google PLA channel, for instance, that works as hard for us.

另一件事是，您具體談論了效果廣告，但我們已經能夠開始在付費社交等新管道和新地區投入更多資金。我們也嘗試了其他類型的行銷，例如使用 Etsy 的損益表進行一些 Etsy 資助的促銷活動。因此，我們不斷地——例如，獲得另一個對我們來說同樣努力的 Google PLA 頻道將是很棒的。

So that's where we're -- where we do more of our experimental marketing spend to see how we can optimize to get those channels to be ROI positive as well. Less likely would be to just drop the ROI threshold except when [making] for churn.

這就是我們現在的情況——我們投入更多的實驗性行銷支出，看看如何優化這些管道，從而獲得正面的投資報酬率。不太可能只是降低投資報酬率閾值，除非在[製作]客戶流失時。

Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Let me try 2, please. On the GMS growth for this year, has the visibility for you changed? And I guess what gives you the confidence in improving GMS growth? If you could please lay out the key drivers. Is it consideration and the gifting initiative primarily driving it and/or quality value reliability drivers, if you want to point to any of those.

請讓我嘗試 2。對於今年GMS的成長，您的看法有改變嗎？我想是什麼給了您改善 GMS 成長的信心？如果可以的話，請列出關鍵驅動因素。如果您想指出其中任何一個，那麼主要驅動因素是考慮因素和送禮主動性和/或品質價值可靠性驅動因素。

And then the second question is on the $90 million in savings that will largely be reinvested. Could you please provide a little bit more color on biggest buckets of investments?

第二個問題是關於 9000 萬美元的儲蓄，大部分將用於再投資。您能否為最大的投資項目提供更多資訊？

Yes, I'm happy to take the first, if you want to. So yes, so we laid out -- first of all, thanks for the questions. And that slide that had consideration and quality value and reliability with key initiatives under each, that's a pretty good road map for some of the bigger levers of the year.

是的，如果你願意的話，我很樂意拿第一名。所以，是的，我們已經安排好了──首先，感謝大家提出的問題。這張投影片包含了考慮因素、品質價值和可靠性以及每個關鍵舉措的可靠性，對於今年一些更大的槓桿來說，這是一個非常好的路線圖。

There are a lot of other things we're constantly doing to just incrementally get better in ways that drive real measurable value. But the way we run this business is we task every squad in the company with a value creation goal. So if you're working on shortening expected delivery date or servicing higher quality items, higher in search, there's a customer metric, but there's also how much extra GMS does that need to produce. And the sum total of that for last year is we think the team produced about $1.5 billion of incremental GMS.

我們還在不斷做很多其他事情，以推動真正可衡量的價值的方式逐步變得更好。但我們經營這項業務的方式是為公司的每個團隊設定一個價值創造目標。因此，如果您致力於縮短預期交貨日期或為更高品質、搜尋量更高的商品提供服務，則需要一個客戶指標，但還需要生產多少額外的 GMS。我們認為該團隊去年的 GMS 增量總和約為 15 億美元。

We've tasked the team with more, even more efficiency than that this year. We continue to find ways to get more efficient, leveraging new tools and techniques, leveraging new processes. We're pretty agile and we work on getting even more agile and even more focused. And then with performance marketing and above-the-line marketing, we're also always working to get more efficient.

我們給團隊的任務比今年更高，甚至更高。我們不斷尋找提高效率的方法，利用新的工具和技術，利用新的流程。我們非常敏捷，我們致力於變得更敏捷、更專注。然後，透過績效行銷和線上行銷，我們也一直致力於提高效率。

And I'm realizing now is when I talked about how the algorithms are doing the work, I don't want you to think it's static. We also have multiple squads working on Martech. And they're constantly focused on things like how can we make our landing pages more efficient. How can we perform better in SEO. How can we make our bids even more sophisticated. Segment our audience even more. So we're constantly driving efficiency gains from each of our teams in each of our dollar spent.

我現在意識到，當我談論演算法如何運作時，我不希望你認為它是靜態的。我們還有多個團隊致力於 Martech。他們不斷關注諸如如何讓我們的目標網頁更有效率之類的問題。我們如何在SEO方面表現得更好。我們怎樣才能使我們的出價更加複雜。進一步細分我們的受眾。因此，我們不斷地透過我們所花費的每一美元來提高每個團隊的效率。

And so what we've done is we've looked at our plan for the year, what we think it's going to deliver in terms of incremental GMS. The assumption on that again, is what's going to happen with the baseline. And that is the part that's hard for us to know. So the risk in this plan is, I think we're going to execute on the plan, and I think we're going to drive a lot of value. And what's going to happen with baseline, and to what extent is that a tailwind or a headwind to us for the year is still yet to be known.

因此，我們所做的就是審視今年的計劃，我們認為它將在增量 GMS 方面實現什麼目標。再次假設，基線將會發生什麼。這是我們很難知道的部分。所以這個計劃的風險是，我認為我們將執行該計劃，並且我認為我們將帶來很多價值。基線會發生什麼，今年我們的順風或逆風在多大程度上仍然未知。

On the $90 million, a couple of things that I want to point out. We reduced our workforce by about 12%, and we cut various operating expenses where we thought that there was room to cut them without losing any productivity or efficiency in operating our business. Of the workforce reduction that we made, we also reduced future open hires. So the -- we not only saved current dollars, but we're saving some future dollars.

關於 9000 萬美元，我想指出幾件事。我們減少了大約 12% 的員工隊伍，並削減了我們認為還有空間削減的各種營運費用，而不會損失任何業務營運的生產力或效率。在我們裁員的同時，我們也減少了未來的空缺職位。因此，我們不僅節省了目前的資金，而且還節省了未來的一些資金。

We -- our main focus is always on the vital few. So what we -- the guiding principle of what we are about was to reprioritize and realign our teams to be working on the fewest possible things that are driving the highest possible impact. That does not mean that we've stopped hiring and that we stopped investing. We see so much room for growth. We talked about our $500 billion TAM or less than 2% of it today. We just have so many ideas. Josh laid out a bunch of them that we're currently working on in the call.

我們——我們的主要關注點始終是至關重要的少數人。因此，我們的指導原則是重新確定我們的團隊的優先順序並重新調整我們的團隊，使其致力於盡可能少的事情，從而產生最大的影響。這並不意味著我們已經停止招募和投資。我們看到了巨大的成長空間。今天我們談到了 5000 億美元的 TAM，即不到 2%。我們只是有很多想法。喬許在電話會議中列出了我們目前正在研究的一些內容。

So we're continuing to invest for growth. We are at top of the pack in terms of revenue per head count in the company. We're very lean. Etsy alone, just Etsy is only about 1,800 people. And the revenue per head, it's hard to find companies of our size and shape that have revenue per head higher than that. We're really winning there. And if we cut too far back, we're going to get in the way of our own ability to invest for growth.

因此，我們將繼續投資以促進成長。就人均收入而言，我們在公司中名列前茅。我們很瘦。光是 Etsy 一人，光是 Etsy 就只有 1800 人左右。至於人均收入，很難找到像我們這樣規模和規模的公司人均收入比這更高。我們真的在那裡獲勝。如果我們削減太多，我們就會妨礙我們自己的成長投資能力。

So we feel very comfortable with finding -- constantly looking for operational efficiencies. Very comfortable with the way that we've reprioritized our expense buckets. And very comfortable with the level of investment we're making going forward.

因此，我們對不斷尋找營運效率感到非常滿意。我們對重新安排支出優先順序的方式感到非常滿意。我們對未來的投資水準非常滿意。

And I just would add that I find the whole commentary on a year of efficiency interesting because every year is a year of efficiency for us. Every quarter is a quarter of efficiency. There hasn't been a quarter or a year when we've said, oh screw it, let's just invest and hope for the best. We've been obsessed with efficiency and value creation per dollar invested for the 7-plus years that Rachel and I have been here.

我想補充一點，我發現對效率年的整個評論很有趣，因為每年對我們來說都是效率年。每個季度都是一個季度的效率。從來沒有一個季度或一年我們會說，哦管他的，讓我們投資並期待最好的結果。 Rachel 和我在這裡工作的七年多來，我們致力於提高每美元投資的效率和價值創造。

And so every quarter, we are looking at, is there a way to squeeze more efficiency. Is there a way to come more cost. And when we find an opportunity to cut cost, the first thing we look at is, can we invest that -- reinvest that profitably to drive growth? What's going to really move the stock price is getting growth -- getting GMS growth up again so that we're driving the multiple. That's what's going to drive growth, but we have to do with cost discipline.

因此，我們每季都會研究是否有辦法提高效率。有沒有辦法降低成本。當我們找到削減成本的機會時，我們首先考慮的是，我們是否可以對其進行投資——再投資以獲利來推動成長？真正推動股價上漲的是成長——讓 GMS 再次成長，這樣我們就能推動股價的成長。這就是推動成長的因素，但我們必須遵守成本紀律。

So what we're not going to do is invest irrationally. Invest a dollar to get $1 or less back. So when we see an opportunity to put that money back into something that's going to drive growth, we're going to do it. The result of that is a business where at the core marketplace on Etsy generates EBITDA margin right now over 30%. It's hard to find a marketplace of our size and scale generating EBITDA margins anywhere close to that. And we're very focused on also reinvesting for driving growth. And we're going to continue to make sure we balance those 2 with an emphasis on investing in growth when we think there's a good opportunity to do so.

所以我們不會做的是非理性投資。投資 1 美元可獲得 1 美元或更少的回報。因此，當我們看到有機會將這些資金重新投入到能夠推動成長的領域時，我們就會這麼做。結果是，Etsy 核心市場的 EBITDA 利潤率目前超過 30%。很難找到像我們這樣規模和規模的市場，其 EBITDA 利潤率能接近這個水準。我們也非常注重再投資以推動成長。當我們認為有很好的機會時，我們將繼續確保平衡這兩者，並專注於成長。

Our next question comes from Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的史蒂文·福布斯。

Maybe just to expand on some of the initiatives like Gift Mode and loyalty. You mentioned the investment in the big game advertising. Any time you sort of hear loyalty, it helps if you can maybe contextualize what you're thinking of doing with loyalty as we potentially have like timing disconnects with the benefits and maybe some margin implications. So just any sort of expansion on what you mean by loyalty?

也許只是為了擴展一些舉措，例如禮物模式和忠誠度。您提到了大型遊戲廣告的投資。任何時候你聽到忠誠度時，如果你能將你正在考慮的忠誠度的事情結合起來，這會有所幫助，因為我們可能會遇到時間與收益脫節，甚至可能會產生一些利潤影響。那麼，你所說的忠誠度是不是有任何形式的擴展呢？

Sure. I would say we don't have anything to announce yet. And I know that's not going to be very satisfying, but we pay a lot of attention to loyalty economics in a lot of places, having cited Amex where not only does Amex run really big loyalty programs and things like membership rewards, but we partnered with when I was at Amex Delta and Starwood and a lot of other places. Had a chance to study a lot of loyalty programs. .

當然。我想說我們還沒有什麼要宣布的。我知道這不會很令人滿意，但我們在很多地方都非常關注忠誠度經濟學，引用了美國運通公司的例子，美國運通公司不僅經營著非常大的忠誠度計劃和會員獎勵等服務，而且我們也與當我在美國運通達美航空和喜達屋以及許多其他地方工作時。有機會研究很多忠誠度計劃。 。

And thinking hard about which are the ones that truly drive more return and truly drive more consideration is a big focus for us. It's got to have both rational and emotional benefits. It can't be just rational. There's got to be some yearn to it. And the goal is to get people to consider Etsy more often. People love Etsy. Talk to buyers and they're all going to say, I love Etsy. Why didn't you shop in Etsy more often? I didn't think of it. So committing to some form of loyalty program, we think can get them to prioritize Etsy and say I'm in this loyalty program, I should stop by Etsy and see if they have something to offer. If we can just get them to stop by and see if we have something to offer, the answer is going to be yes a whole lot of the time.

認真思考哪些是真正能帶來更多回報、真正能帶來更多考量的因素，才是我們關注的重點。它必須同時具有理性和情感上的好處。這不可能只是理性的。一定有一些嚮往。我們的目標是讓人們更頻繁地考慮 Etsy。人們喜歡 Etsy。與買家交談，他們都會說，我喜歡 Etsy。為什麼不經常在 Etsy 上購物？我沒想到。因此，致力於某種形式的忠誠度計劃，我們認為可以讓他們優先考慮 Etsy，並說我參與了這個忠誠度計劃，我應該順便去 Etsy 看看他們是否可以提供一些東西。如果我們能讓他們停下來看看我們是否可以提供一些東西，那麼答案在很多時候都是肯定的。

And then maybe just a quick follow-up. A lot of noise out there in terms of AOVs or ticket-related challenges across the discretionary landscape or just where deflation is, right, within the respective categories. You mentioned sort of this optimism around stabilization in GMS per active buyer. Curious if you could maybe expand on what's giving you the optimism and what you're seeing with price behavior across the product categories you serve.

然後也許只是快速跟進。在可自由支配領域或各自類別內的通貨緊縮情況下，在 AOV 或票據相關挑戰方面存在許多噪音。您提到了對活躍買家 GMS 穩定的樂觀態度。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明是什麼讓您感到樂觀，以及您在所服務的產品類別中看到的價格行為。

It has stabilized a bit. If you look at the last 4 quarters, GMS per active buyer have been relatively stable at $126. So that's good news. And by the way, that's up from about $100 before the pandemic. So in spite of all the headwinds and everything we've talked about with the macro, still spending 20% more, more than 20% more than they were pre-pandemic.

已經穩定了一些。如果你看看過去 4 個季度，每個活躍買家的 GMS 相對穩定在 126 美元。這是個好消息。順便說一句，這比疫情爆發前的 100 美元左右有所上升。因此，儘管存在所有不利因素以及我們在宏觀方面討論的一切，但支出仍然比疫情前多了 20%，超過 20%。

In the headwinds for the beginning of this quarter, when we said we were off to a slower start, AOVs are down slightly. So when we talk about starting from a low -- down mid-single digit and guiding to -- we think we will get back to low single digit by the end of the quarter. One of the headwinds we're seeing is AOVs are down. The good news on that is it means transaction volumes are actually holding up better than what those numbers would suggest. Buyers are still coming and buying on Etsy. They're just even more price sensitive in this moment. And that, I think, is pretty consistent with what we hear with a lot of others.

在本季度初的逆風中，當我們說我們開局較慢時，AOV 略有下降。因此，當我們談論從低位開始 - 下降到中個位數並引導至 - 我們認為到本季度末我們將回到低個位數。我們看到的阻力之一是 AOV 下降。好消息是，這意味著交易量實際上比這些數字所顯示的要好。買家仍在 Etsy 上購買。他們此時此刻對價格更加敏感。我認為，這與我們從許多其他人那裡聽到的非常一致。

Our next question comes from Anna Andreeva with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Anna Andreeva。

We had one question on take rate. Came in a little bit better than expectations in the fourth quarter. What's driving that expectation for the year to be at or higher than Q4 levels? I think you mentioned some of the seller onboarding fees. And then secondly, the number of churn buyers, I think, increased a little bit in 4Q. Can you further elaborate on that?

我們有一個關於採納率的問題。第四季的業績略優於預期。是什麼推動今年的預期達到或高於第四季的水平？我想您提到了一些賣家入職費用。其次，我認為第四季度流失買家的數量略有增加。能進一步詳細說明嗎？

I'll take the first, you take the second. Okay. So the -- we rolled out Etsy Payments to 9 more markets. So that helps us a lot with incremental transaction fees that we just weren't getting before. And today, we launched the seller fee, which not only has the benefit of incremental take rate, which, by the way, completely is reinvested back in safety of the marketplace. But it creates -- did you call it friendly friction earlier? Friendly friction so that we create a little speed bump for not just any seller can create a listing for $0.20 and some kind of product. It's a moment to think about, well, I'm going to have to make payments fee. And that helps us with bad actors on the site so that we get both the benefits of that.

我拿第一個，你拿第二個。好的。因此，我們向另外 9 個市場推出了 Etsy Payments。因此，這對我們減少以前未曾獲得的增量交易費用有很大幫助。今天，我們推出了賣家費用，這不僅有增量採取率的好處，順便說一句，這完全被重新投資回市場的安全。但它會產生——你之前稱之為友好摩擦嗎？友善的摩擦讓我們創造了一點減速帶，不是任何賣家都可以創建 0.20 美元的清單和某種產品。現在是時候考慮一下，好吧，我將不得不支付費用。這有助於我們打擊網站上的不良行為者，這樣我們就能從中受益。

Yes. And that, by the way, is not a big take rate driver. I think the revenue in that is going to be relatively small, but it's going to be good value exchange, making sure it's really secure to become a seller on Etsy. And I think that's good for all of the sellers and the buyers on Etsy and the fee we're charging is nominal. If it's not worth $15 to create a shop on Etsy, then maybe you're not committed enough to likely succeed on Etsy. But that's not a huge revenue driver. We'll continue to see payments coverage expand in other markets and other areas where we think there's fair value exchange and we think we'll achieve the take rate that we guide into.

是的。順便說一句，這並不是一個很大的轉換率驅動因素。我認為這方面的收入相對較小，但它將是良好的價值交換，確保成為 Etsy 上的賣家確實安全。我認為這對 Etsy 上的所有賣家和買家都有好處，而且我們收取的費用只是像徵性的。如果在 Etsy 上創建商店不值得 15 美元，那麼您可能沒有足夠的決心在 Etsy 上取得成功。但這並不是一個巨大的收入驅動因素。我們將繼續看到支付覆蓋範圍在我們認為存在公允價值交換的其他市場和其他領域擴大，並且我們認為我們將達到我們指導的接受率。

Let me add a quick one to that. Just also when we see international business increase, we get a slightly higher take rate on Etsy Payments where the buyer and the seller are 2 different currencies because we have a premium that we charge for that currency exchange. So that's another thing affecting take rate. And lastly, we did see nice lift from Etsy ads again, and we'll continue to see Etsy ads improvement as we continue to make investments in the better -- and better the search broad relevancy is for Etsy ads higher the conversion rate.

讓我快速添加一個。同樣，當我們看到國際業務增加時，我們在 Etsy Payments 上獲得的匯率略高，其中買方和賣方使用 2 種不同的貨幣，因為我們對該貨幣兌換收取溢價。這是影響轉換率的另一件事。最後，我們確實再次看到 Etsy 廣告的良好提升，隨著我們繼續投資更好的產品，我們將繼續看到 Etsy 廣告的改進——更好的搜尋廣泛相關性使 Etsy 廣告的轉換率更高。

And on active buyers, we ended the quarter -- ended the year with about 92 million active buyers on a trailing 12-month basis. So at an all-time high. Roughly stable. I don't want to crow too much about it, roughly stable from the prior quarter. But I'm not sure where the comment about more churn was, but I'd say active buyers have been stable.

在活躍買家方面，我們在本季結束時——到年底時，過去 12 個月的活躍買家數量約為 9,200 萬。所以處於歷史最高水準。大致穩定。我不想對此吹噓太多，與上一季相比大致穩定。但我不確定關於更多客戶流失的評論在哪裡，但我想說活躍買家一直很穩定。

Then I think last one is going to be from Jason, right? Operator?

那我想最後一張是傑森的，對吧？操作員？

Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer is our next question.

傑森·赫夫斯坦和奧本海默是我們的下一個問題。

So 2 questions, really one is a question everyone's going to ask. How are you thinking about helping sellers correct -- use correct pricing and not just undercut each other and just be more sophisticated with optimum listing prices? And the second, really, to ask, a common investor concern we hear is really around the ability to grow cohorts. Is it something you would provide in the future, perhaps like annual GMV by cohort on the year of acquisition, I think would help people better understand...

所以有兩個問題，其中一個是每個人都會問的問題。您如何考慮幫助賣家糾正—使用正確的定價，而不僅僅是互相削弱，而是透過最佳掛牌價格變得更加複雜？第二個問題是，我們聽到的投資者普遍關心的問題其實是關於擴大群體的能力。您將來是否會提供一些東西，也許像收購當年的同類群組的年度 GMV，我認為這會幫助人們更好地理解...

We have that in our 10-K. We have GMS retention in our 10-K, which will be filed tonight, tomorrow morning.

我們的 10-K 就有這個。我們的 10-K 中保留了 GMS，將於今晚、明天早上提交。

Yes, you'll have it very soon. So it will be a stack bar every year. The class you joined in 2017, what have they delivered to the class in 2018, all that stuff. And what I think you'll see in those cohorts, just to start with that, is I'm used to, in a lot of e-commerce business, is seeing that (inaudible) down over time. And what you see with Etsy is that it's been more of a smile curve. And we think that's really healthy. Obviously, the inflection drove just like a massive uptick and then a little bit of a settling back down, which makes everything a little messy, a little harder to make sense of.

是的，你很快就會得到它。所以每年都會是一個棧吧。你2017年加入的班級，他們在2018年為班級帶來了什麼，所有這些東西。我想你會在這些群體中看到，首先，我已經習慣了，在許多電子商務業務中，看到（聽不清楚）隨著時間的推移而下降。你在 Etsy 上看到的是，它更像是一條微笑曲線。我們認為這非常健康。顯然，這種轉折點就像一次大幅上漲，然後又稍微回落，這讓一切都變得有點混亂，有點難以理解。

But the fact that the cohorts do generally stack on each other really nicely, we think, is a pretty powerful part of what makes Etsy really compelling. And we've still just been experiencing a bit of when you look at the stacking of those cohorts, dealing with the post-pandemic, slight compression coming out of the post-pandemic has -- just provides a bit of a headwind. On your first point -- seller pricing.

但我們認為，這些群組通常確實非常好地相互疊加，這一事實是 Etsy 真正引人注目的一個非常強大的部分。當你看看這些群體的堆積時，我們仍然經歷了一些，處理大流行後的情況，大流行後產生的輕微壓縮——只是提供了一點阻力。關於第一點－賣家定價。

Yes. Helping with sell pricing. Great. Great question. So a couple of things. One, we've had a very big focus on not hand made. And we've shared in the past that the percentage of views that encounter an item that's not handmade is -- I think the last time we gave an update, it was cut in half. We've made even more progress since then. So it's a very big focus of our, to make sure that mass-produced items are not visible on the site. It's bad for the brand. And it's not helpful for our sellers in terms of price competition.

是的。幫助制定銷售定價。偉大的。很好的問題。有幾件事。第一，我們非常注重非手工製作。我們過去曾分享過，遇到非手工製品的瀏覽量百分比是——我認為上次我們更新時，它減少了一半。從那時起，我們取得了更多進展。因此，確保批量生產的商品在網站上不可見是我們的一個重點。這對品牌不利。而且對於我們賣家在價格競爭方面沒有幫助。

But another thing I talked about very briefly in the call, let me unpack that a little bit more, is really elevating quality even more in search results. And what I mean by that is our search algorithm today is designed to pick items you're likely to buy, right? So the search algorithm using cutting-edge machine learning is saying, what's Jason likely to purchase. What we wanted to do is say, what's Jason likely to love, purchase and loved.

但我在電話中非常簡短地談到的另一件事是，讓我進一步解釋一下，確實進一步提高了搜尋結果的品質。我的意思是，我們今天的搜尋演算法旨在挑選您可能購買的商品，對嗎？因此，使用尖端機器學習的搜尋演算法可以判斷傑森可能會購買什麼。我們想做的是，傑森可能會喜歡、購買和喜愛什麼。

And so forming more of a point of view around does the seller give consistently good quality service, is the item consistently delightful and that leading to frequent -- more frequent purchases. Gaining that kind of fidelity and filling a point of view, what's the quality of photography here, what's the quality of the return policies. Does the seller consistently ship on time. And using that to create an explainable AI model to rank who should be on top in search, we think can unlock a ton of value, especially as you then start to expose that to sellers and say to sellers in order to rank higher, the way to do that is to get better on one of the following metrics.

因此，圍繞賣家是否提供一致的優質服務、商品是否始終令人愉快以及導致更頻繁的購買形成更多的觀點。獲得這種保真度並填充一個觀點，這裡的攝影品質如何，退貨政策的品質如何。賣家是否始終按時發貨。使用它來創建一個可解釋的人工智慧模型來對誰應該在搜尋中排名靠前，我們認為可以釋放大量價值，特別是當你開始向賣家展示這一點並告訴賣家為了排名更高時，要做到這一點，就要在以下指標之一上取得更好的成績。

Here's how you're currently doing. And the better you do on these metrics, the better you will rank in search. That creates a race to the top. And I think that's an incredibly exciting thing that we're going to do that we're very focused on right now. It's one of the initiatives I talked about this year, and I think that over the kind of next couple of years can have a very big impact.

這是您目前的做法。您在這些指標上做得越好，您在搜尋中的排名就越好。這創造了一場爭頂的競賽。我認為這是一件令人難以置信的令人興奮的事情，我們現在非常關注我們要做的事情。這是我今年談到的舉措之一，我認為在未來幾年內可能會產生非常大的影響。

So Etsy does far because our unexplainable machine learning model is incredibly sophisticated at picking the thing you're likely to convert most at. And so we've got to come up with an explainable version of the model that doesn't do any damage at least, right, that can largely match our black box model and then get better from there. And there's some R&D that needs to happen, and that's the kind of R&D that's happening right now.

Etsy 之所以能做到這一點，是因為我們無法解釋的機器學習模型非常複雜，能夠挑選出您最有可能轉換的內容。因此，我們必須提出一個可解釋的模型版本，至少不會造成任何損害，對吧，它可以在很大程度上匹配我們的黑盒子模型，然後從那裡變得更好。需要進行一些研發，這就是現在正在進行的研發。

All right, great. All right. Thanks, Jason. I think we went over time, so operator, I think we're going to cut it here.

好吧，太好了。好的。謝謝，傑森。我想我們已經超時了，所以操作員，我想我們要在這裡剪掉它。

Thank you. That concludes the call for today. We appreciate your participation. Have a great evening.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。祝您有個美好的夜晚。

Thanks, everyone. Thank you very much.

感謝大家。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。