Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (ERIC) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Peter Laurin - Senior VP, Head of Business Area Managed Services & Head of Segment Managed Services

    Peter Laurin - Senior VP, Head of Business Area Managed Services & Head of Segment Managed Services

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to today's Ericsson's fourth quarter result as well as the full year result for 2021. With me here today, I have our CEO, Börje Ekholm; and our CFO, Carl Mellander. So as usual, we will start with a presentation from Börje and Carl, and then we will end this session with a Q&A. More information on that, you will find on our website. But you have to join the call via telephone to be able to ask questions.

    大家好,歡迎收看今天的愛立信第四季度業績以及 2021 年全年業績。今天在場的是我們的首席執行官 Börje Ekholm;以及我們的首席財務官 Carl Mellander。所以像往常一樣,我們將從 Börje 和 Carl 的演講開始,然後我們將以問答結束本次會議。有關更多信息,您可以在我們的網站上找到。但是您必須通過電話加入通話才能提出問題。

  • So during today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on our current expectation and certain planning assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. The actual result may differ materially due to factors mentioned in today's report or press release and discussed in this conference call.

    因此,在今天的演講中,我們將做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於我們當前的預期和某些規劃假設,這些假設受到風險和不確定性的影響。由於今天的報告或新聞稿中提到的以及本次電話會議中討論的因素,實際結果可能存在重大差異。

  • We encourage you to read about these risks and uncertainties in our earnings report as well as in our annual report. So today, we're not only presenting, as I said, the fourth quarter results, we're also presenting actually the full year of 2021, an eventful year for Ericsson. But before starting the presentation, I would like to ask 1 question to both Börje and Carl, the sort of event that stays in your mind when you think about 2021.

    我們鼓勵您在我們的收益報告和年度報告中閱讀這些風險和不確定性。所以今天,正如我所說,我們不僅要展示第四季度的業績,我們還要展示 2021 年的全年業績,這對愛立信來說是多事之秋。但在開始演講之前,我想問 Börje 和 Carl 一個問題,當你想到 2021 年時,你腦海中會浮現這樣的事件。

  • So I'll start with you, Börje. What's sort of the situation event that you will think about when thinking back on 2021?

    所以我將從你開始,Börje。回顧 2021 年時,您會想到什麼樣的情境事件?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • I think of a couple of things, actually. The first one is really the accelerated rollout we've seen of 5G around the world. And cellphone technology has been a fast scaling technology. 5G is the fastest scaling cellphone technology so far. And it's quite impressive to see. I think that's an important part. We have seen our investments in technology and R&D actually paying off and gaining market share as well.

    實際上,我想到了幾件事。第一個是我們在全球範圍內看到的 5G 加速部署。手機技術一直是一種快速擴展的技術。 5G 是迄今為止擴展速度最快的手機技術。令人印象深刻。我認為這是一個重要的部分。我們已經看到我們在技術和研發方面的投資實際上得到了回報並獲得了市場份額。

  • The next part, which I think is equally important is the step we took with the announced acquisition of Vonage, which will allow us to build an enterprise business where we can monetize together with our customers, the CSPs on the capabilities of 5G network. By providing the developer community with exposure to the APIs, we can actually develop in the 5G network. I think that's very exciting for the future.

    我認為同樣重要的下一部分是我們在宣布收購 Vonage 時採取的步驟,這將使我們能夠建立一個企業業務,我們可以與我們的客戶一起從 5G 網絡功能的 CSP 中獲利。通過向開發者社區提供 API,我們實際上可以在 5G 網絡中進行開發。我認為這對未來非常令人興奮。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • And full year. So sort of opportunity to improve your golf handicap, I guess. Carl, what do you think about if you think about 2021?

    和全年。我想這是提高您的高爾夫差點的好機會。卡爾,如果你想到 2021 年,你會怎麼想?

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • I think it's a great testament to the collaboration efforts. The whole team, 100,000 employees in the company actually delivered on all the things that Börje talked about. And the outcome is so strong. Everything from top line, pleasing the customers and so on via improved profitability. But also cash flow, of course, which I think is maybe the ultimate testimony here to the performance in the business. A record high cash flow for the year, the best we've seen in the history of Ericsson. So I think that's -- it's strong, and it's a great team effort in Ericsson.

    我認為這是對合作努力的一個很好的證明。整個團隊,公司的 100,000 名員工實際上實現了 Börje 談到的所有事情。結果是如此強大。通過提高盈利能力,從收入、取悅客戶等方面的一切。當然還有現金流,我認為這可能是業務績效的最終證明。今年的現金流創歷史新高,是愛立信歷史上最好的。所以我認為這是 - 它很強大,而且這是愛立信的一個偉大的團隊努力。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Great. Thanks, Carl. Thanks, Börje. With that, as a starter, I will actually leave the word to you, Börje, to start the presentation. So please, Börje.

    偉大的。謝謝,卡爾。謝謝,Börje。有了這個,作為開場白,我實際上會把這個詞留給你,Börje,開始演講。所以請 Börje。

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Peter. And I hope your golf handicap has improved more than mine. Anyhow, good morning, everyone, and welcome to this presentation. I'm very happy that so many of you could join. So thanks for being with us. I am very proud to present a good ending of 2021 as well as a very strong fourth quarter.

    謝謝,彼得。我希望你的高爾夫差點比我的進步更大。總之,大家早上好,歡迎來到這個演講。我很高興你們中有這麼多人可以加入。所以感謝你和我們在一起。我很自豪地呈現 2021 年的美好結局以及非常強勁的第四季度。

  • I would say today's report is really a direct result of executing on the strategy we put in place to focus on extending our leadership in the mobile infrastructure business. And we do that by investing in R&D for technology leadership, but also that we can leverage this position we have in the mobile infrastructure business to establish and grow into an enterprise business, but more on that later on in the presentation.

    我想說今天的報告實際上是執行我們為專注於擴大我們在移動基礎設施業務中的領導地位而製定的戰略的直接結果。我們通過投資技術領導力的研發來做到這一點,而且我們可以利用我們在移動基礎設施業務中的地位來建立和發展成企業業務,但稍後將在演示中詳細介紹。

  • I also want to take this opportunity to thank all my colleagues at Ericsson for a very strong job done this past year. We faced pandemic challenges, but we've also faced supply chain challenges as well as inflationary pressures. But I must say it's a true testament to their ability to execute, basically great achievement on their part. 5G, as I said before, is the fastest scaling mobile technology we have seen, and deployments around the world have truly accelerated this past year.

    我還想藉此機會感謝愛立信的所有同事在過去一年中所做的出色工作。我們面臨著流行病挑戰,但我們也面臨著供應鏈挑戰和通脹壓力。但我必須說,這是對他們執行能力的真實證明,基本上是他們取得的巨大成就。正如我之前所說,5G 是我們所見過的擴展速度最快的移動技術,並且在過去的一年裡,全球範圍內的部署確實加速了。

  • And we have been able to achieve a leadership position. So today, we have 109 live 5G networks. We have 170 agreements or contracts with customers on 5G networks. And we have been able to capitalize on this leadership position to gain market share as well. We can also see that the investments we made in technology leadership actually results in a performance of the networks or the deployed networks for our customers.

    我們已經能夠取得領導地位。所以今天,我們有 109 個實時 5G 網絡。我們與客戶就 5G 網絡簽訂了 170 份協議或合同。我們也能夠利用這一領導地位來獲得市場份額。我們還可以看到,我們在技術領先地位方面的投資實際上為我們的客戶帶來了網絡性能或已部署網絡。

  • And we have recently seen, basically in 3 different independent benchmarks, that the winners in each of the benchmarks have 1 thing in common: they actually rely on Ericsson for their primary vendor relationships. So it shows that while the measurements always vary by benchmark and the standards vary by benchmark, we can see that we can deliver network performance that's second to none. And that's ultimately what's going to drive our business going forward.

    我們最近看到,基本上在 3 個不同的獨立基準測試中,每個基準測試的獲勝者都有一個共同點:他們實際上依賴愛立信作為他們的主要供應商關係。因此它表明,雖然測量結果總是因基準而異,標準也因基準而異,但我們可以看到,我們可以提供首屈一指的網絡性能。這最終將推動我們的業務向前發展。

  • Now let's hit on a couple of key benchmarks from the fourth quarter. The momentum in our core mobile infrastructure business continued throughout the quarter. This is, of course, something that's basically the cornerstone of the company. We're not going to lose focus on that even as we expand into enterprises.

    現在讓我們來看看第四季度的幾個關鍵基準。我們核心移動基礎設施業務的勢頭在整個季度持續。當然,這基本上是公司的基石。即使我們擴展到企業,我們也不會失去對這一點的關注。

  • We offset the impact from the reduced market share in Mainland China by growing elsewhere. So organically, total growth was 2%, but if we exclude China for just comparisons, our organic growth was 5%. For the whole of 2021, we saw an 8% growth if we exclude China. Profitability remained very strong, and we had a gross margin in the fourth quarter of 43.5% versus 40.6% the year before. And basically, that's the result of improvements in all segments.

    我們通過在其他地方的增長來抵消中國大陸市場份額下降的影響。所以有機地,總增長是 2%,但如果我們排除中國祇是為了比較,我們的有機增長是 5%。如果排除中國,我們在整個 2021 年實現了 8% 的增長。盈利能力仍然非常強勁,第四季度的毛利率為 43.5%,而去年同期為 40.6%。基本上,這是所有細分市場改進的結果。

  • EBIT margin reached 17.3% and free cash flow before M&A was SEK 13.5 billion. For the full year, our gross margin was also 43.5%, EBIT margin 13.9%, and free cash flow, SEK 32.1 billion. And I would say all of them are indicators of the resiliency and strength of our underlying business.

    EBIT 利潤率達到 17.3%,併購前的自由現金流為 135 億瑞典克朗。全年,我們的毛利率也為 43.5%,息稅前利潤率為 13.9%,自由現金流為 321 億瑞典克朗。我想說所有這些都是我們基礎業務的彈性和實力的指標。

  • In our Q3 call, I shared a little bit more about our thoughts on our growth plans into enterprise. And of course, I'm delighted about the step we took during the fourth quarter with the announcement of our intent to acquire Vonage.

    在我們的第三季度電話會議中,我分享了更多關於我們對進入企業的增長計劃的看法。當然,我很高興我們在第四季度宣布了收購 Vonage 的意向。

  • Based on learnings from our past acquisitions, Vonage will remain a stand-alone entity in Ericsson and operate with limited integration. This is the model we deployed actually for Cradlepoint and the integration of Cradlepoint. And there, we have been able to execute in line with our investment case. And that's despite supply challenges as well as a relatively slow pickup of 5G modems in the beginning of the year.

    根據我們過去收購的經驗,Vonage 仍將是愛立信的一個獨立實體,並在有限的整合下運營。這是我們實際為 Cradlepoint 部署的模型以及 Cradlepoint 的集成。在那裡,我們能夠根據我們的投資案例執行。儘管存在供應挑戰,而且今年年初 5G 調製解調器的採購速度相對較慢,但情況仍然如此。

  • So the light integration will allow Vonage to continue to execute on growing the business as well as on the financial performance. But in parallel with that, we will also start to invest in our global network platform that basically will allow CSPs as well as ourselves to monetize the features of the 5G network or call it the performance characteristics or APIs of the 5G network.

    因此,輕度整合將使 Vonage 能夠繼續執行業務增長和財務業績。但與此同時,我們還將開始投資我們的全球網絡平台,該平台基本上將允許 CSP 以及我們自己通過 5G 網絡的功能獲利,或者稱之為 5G 網絡的性能特徵或 API。

  • So by developing the APIs, we can actually, through the Vonage acquisition, expose the APIs to the Vonage developer ecosystem to drive completely new applications on to digitalizing enterprises, but also for consumers.

    因此,通過開發 API,我們實際上可以通過收購 Vonage,將 API 公開給 Vonage 開發人員生態系統,以將全新的應用程序推向數字化企業,同時也推向消費者。

  • We -- and of course, in addition to Vonage, our enterprise business consists of our dedicated networks as well as Cradlepoint and IoT; that's part of the more wireless mobile networks that we are focusing on as well. We expect Vonage to close here during Q1 or possibly into Q2, depending on regulatory approvals and shareholder votes.

    我們——當然,除了 Vonage 之外,我們的企業業務還包括我們的專用網絡以及 Cradlepoint 和 IoT;這也是我們關注的更多無線移動網絡的一部分。我們預計 Vonage 將在第一季度或可能進入第二季度關閉,具體取決於監管批准和股東投票。

  • I would also just touch upon the correspondence that we received from the DOJ during the fourth quarter, where there is a breach in the deferred prosecution agreement, as Ericsson basically failed to provide certain documents and factual information. I'm sorry to say, but at this point in time, we will have no further information to share. But I will say that we will update the market as soon as we have additional information about the matter and then we will share it, of course.

    我還要談談我們在第四季度從司法部收到的信件,其中違反了延期起訴協議,因為愛立信基本上未能提供某些文件和事實信息。很抱歉,但此時此刻,我們沒有更多信息可以分享。但我會說,一旦我們獲得有關此事的更多信息,我們將立即更新市場,然後我們當然會分享。

  • But in the meantime, I would also say that we continue to invest very heavily in building a world-class compliance program and basically a culture of integrity at the company. And we're taking significant investments, we took them already last year, and we will continue to do that during 2022. Our commitment to be world-class in compliance stands firm.

    但與此同時,我還要說的是,我們將繼續大力投資建立世界一流的合規計劃,並基本上在公司營造誠信文化。我們正在進行重大投資,我們去年已經進行了投資,我們將在 2022 年繼續這樣做。我們堅定地致力於成為世界一流的合規者。

  • We reached also our targets, financial performance targets, for 2022 of 12% to 14% of EBIT margin, basically 1 year early. I remain very confident about the future growth of our core business, the core mobile infrastructure business. So for 2022, we see the targets to remain in place, i.e., the 12% to 14%, if we exclude the Vonage acquisition. However, we also see that when we determined the targets for 2022, that's back in 2018, our business mix looked a bit different and our investment mix looked a bit different.

    我們還實現了 2022 年 12% 至 14% 的息稅前利潤率目標,即財務業績目標,基本上提前了一年。我對我們的核心業務,即核心移動基礎設施業務的未來增長充滿信心。因此,對於 2022 年,如果我們排除對 Vonage 的收購,我們認為目標將保持不變,即 12% 至 14%。然而,我們也看到,當我們確定 2022 年的目標時,那是在 2018 年,我們的業務組合看起來有點不同,我們的投資組合看起來有點不同。

  • So what we see now, while we are, of course, committed to the targets, we see an opportunity to develop a very strong enterprise business and that we see will allow us to also improve profitability over time. So our focus now is, therefore, to accelerate the achievement of what we said would be the long-term target of 15% to 18% EBITDA margin, and we should be able to do that no later than 2 to 3 years out.

    因此,我們現在所看到的,雖然我們當然致力於實現這些目標,但我們看到了發展非常強大的企業業務的機會,而且我們看到這將使我們隨著時間的推移提高盈利能力。因此,我們現在的重點是加快實現我們所說的 15% 至 18% EBITDA 利潤率的長期目標,我們應該能夠在 2 至 3 年內做到這一點。

  • In the -- so we're very excited about the opportunities we see in enterprise, but it's also important that we make sure to accelerate to reach the long-term target as I think that will put us on a very different growth trajectory as well as profitability development.

    在 - 所以我們對我們在企業中看到的機會感到非常興奮,但同樣重要的是我們要確保加速實現長期目標,因為我認為這也會讓我們走上一個非常不同的增長軌跡作為盈利能力的發展。

  • In the last few years, we've also taken steps to improve the capital efficiency of the company. And basically, we see today that we can operate the company with much less capital than we could before. And basically, that allows us to pay cash for the Vonage acquisition. And at the same time, it does not impede our ability to invest in growing the rest of our company and the rest of our business. So when we take all these factors into account, the Board has decided to propose a dividend of SEK 2.50 per share. That's an increase of 25% compared to last year, and it reflects the confidence that we have in -- and stability we see in our business.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們還採取措施提高公司的資本效率。基本上,我們今天看到,我們可以用比以前少得多的資本來經營公司。基本上,這使我們能夠為收購 Vonage 支付現金。同時,它不會妨礙我們投資發展公司其他部門和其他業務的能力。因此,當我們考慮到所有這些因素後,董事會決定提議派發每股 2.50 瑞典克朗的股息。與去年相比增長了 25%,這反映了我們對業務的信心以及我們在業務中看到的穩定性。

  • So now moving on to market area performance for the fourth quarter. So starting with Europe and Latin America, sales increased by 12%. Breaking that down, we can see that Europe grew 11% and Latin America 17% in organic growth. And this strong development was driven by growth in both networks as well as digital services and is really on the back of market share gains.

    所以現在轉向第四季度的市場表現。因此,從歐洲和拉丁美洲開始,銷售額增長了 12%。細分來看,我們可以看到歐洲有機增長 11%,拉丁美洲有機增長 17%。這種強勁的發展是由網絡和數字服務的增長推動的,並且實際上是在市場份額增長的支持下。

  • 5G momentum continues in North America, where we saw a very good development. Sales increased by 15%, driven by strong demand for 5G. And it's worth to remember in the year, we've actually signed now 5G contracts with all Tier 1 operators, representing the biggest contracts in our company's history, and that's been done in North America, of course, or in the U.S.

    5G 勢頭在北美繼續,我們在那裡看到了非常好的發展。在對 5G 的強勁需求的推動下,銷售額增長了 15%。值得記住的是,在這一年裡,我們實際上已經與所有一級運營商簽署了 5G 合同,這是我們公司歷史上最大的合同,當然,這是在北美或美國完成的。

  • In Middle East and Africa, sales increased by 5% and largely driven by growth in Africa, where digital services, in particular, saw a strong demand for software upgrades. Sales in Northeast Asia decreased by 22% year-over-year, and that's on the back of materially lower market share in Mainland China.

    在中東和非洲,銷售額增長了 5%,這在很大程度上是由非洲的增長推動的,非洲的數字服務對軟件升級的需求尤其強勁。東北亞的銷售額同比下降 22%,這是因為中國大陸的市場份額大幅下降。

  • Finally, Southeast Asia, Oceania and India, their sales decreased by 13% versus 2020. And that's really a tough comparison in the fourth quarter, primarily for Networks. We -- so Networks actually shrank, but we saw a good development in Digital Services instead.

    最後,東南亞、大洋洲和印度的銷售額與 2020 年相比下降了 13%。這在第四季度確實是一個艱難的比較,主要是網絡。我們 - 所以網絡實際上縮小了,但我們看到了數字服務的良好發展。

  • So let's look now at the market segment or business segments. If we start with Networks, sales adjusted for comparable units and excluding Mainland China grew by 6% and we saw double-digit growth in North America, Europe and Latin America. Gross margin increased to 46.4% compared to 43.5% year-over-year, and that's really due to operational leverage.

    那麼現在讓我們看看市場細分或業務細分。如果我們從網絡開始,針對可比單位調整後的銷售額增長了 6%,不包括中國大陸,我們在北美、歐洲和拉丁美洲看到了兩位數的增長。毛利率從去年同期的 43.5% 增至 46.4%,這實際上是由於運營槓桿。

  • In Digital Services, sales adjusted for Mainland China increased 3%. Gross margin increased to 43.4%, driven by increased software sale, which is actually in line with the strategy we have for Digital Services.

    在數字服務方面,針對中國大陸調整後的銷售額增長了 3%。在軟件銷售增加的推動下,毛利率增至 43.4%,這實際上符合我們的數字服務戰略。

  • So Digital Services continues to develop according to the plan. And what we are starting to see, though, is that as 5G core -- or at least starts to go live with customers, we are starting to see revenues being generated from those contracts. So for 2022, we expect a limited loss for digital services, but the improvement is going to be tilted towards the second half of the year. And that is due to the 5G networks are increasingly starting to carry traffic throughout 2022.

    因此,數字服務繼續按照計劃發展。不過,我們開始看到的是,作為 5G 核心——或者至少開始與客戶一起使用,我們開始看到這些合同產生了收入。因此,對於 2022 年,我們預計數字服務的損失有限,但改善將傾向於下半年。這是由於 5G 網絡在整個 2022 年越來越多地開始承載流量。

  • So Managed Services, sales declined year-over-year, basically as new deals could not fully offset lower customer demand. And we also had contract rescoping as well as planned exits. To grow profits, we will accelerate the ongoing transformation towards a more software-driven offering with higher margin potential.

    因此,託管服務銷售額同比下降,主要是因為新交易無法完全抵消較低的客戶需求。我們還進行了合同範圍調整和計劃退出。為了增加利潤,我們將加快正在進行的轉型,向具有更高利潤潛力的軟件驅動型產品轉型。

  • In Emerging Business and Other, we're seeing increasing momentum for our 5G portfolio in dedicated networks as well as Cradlepoint. Both sales and gross margin improved with Cradlepoint as the main contributor. The development of Cradlepoint, as I said before, is well in line with our acquisition plan.

    在新興業務和其他方面,我們看到我們的 5G 產品組合在專用網絡和 Cradlepoint 中的勢頭越來越大。 Cradlepoint 是銷售額和毛利率的主要貢獻者。正如我之前所說,Cradlepoint 的發展非常符合我們的收購計劃。

  • With that, I'm going to leave the word over to Carl to go through a little bit more of the details in the report.

    有了這個,我將把這個詞留給 Carl,讓他仔細閱讀報告中的更多細節。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Thank you, Börje. So good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining. And the first, I just wanted to also echo what Börje said earlier: we're very proud of this result, and it's really a result of strategy execution. But let's have a look at the numbers then.

    謝謝你,伯傑。大家早上好,感謝您的加入。首先,我也想重複 Börje 之前所說的話:我們為這個結果感到非常自豪,這確實是戰略執行的結果。但是讓我們看看這些數字。

  • So net sales, SEK 71.3 billion with an organic growth of 2% for the group. And if we then adjust for the drop in Mainland China, where we have lost market share, as we have discussed many times, we have an organic growth of 5% just as a reference there.

    因此,集團的淨銷售額為 713 億瑞典克朗,有機增長 2%。如果我們對中國大陸的下降進行調整,我們已經失去了市場份額,正如我們多次討論的那樣,我們有 5% 的有機增長作為參考。

  • And as you saw in Börje's graph of market areas, of course, this growth is really underpinned by our 2 largest market areas, being North America growing at 15% currency-adjusted and Europe and Latin America at 12%. This is a clear result in these cases by market share gains with the customers. So that's encouraging to see.

    正如您在 Börje 的市場區域圖表中看到的那樣,當然,這種增長實際上是由我們兩個最大的市場區域支撐的,北美以 15% 的匯率調整後增長,歐洲和拉丁美洲以 12% 的速度增長。在這些案例中,這是一個明顯的結果,即與客戶的市場份額增加。所以這是令人鼓舞的。

  • Börje also alluded to the global supply disturbances that remained during the quarter. But really, thanks to the supply organization and all the hard work there, we managed to continue to build resilience in the supply chain and deliver to customers according to their demand.

    Börje 還提到了本季度持續存在的全球供應動盪。但實際上,由於供應組織和那裡的所有辛勤工作,我們設法繼續在供應鏈中建立彈性,並根據客戶的需求向客戶交付產品。

  • And in fact, if we look at 2021, we have managed to increase the number of delivered radios every quarter sequentially, and in Q4, that's also true year-over-year.

    事實上,如果我們看看 2021 年,我們已經設法按順序每個季度增加交付的無線電數量,而在第四季度,同比也是如此。

  • IPR revenues, SEK 2.4 billion in the quarter, including a portion of retroactive revenue from 1 contract that we signed -- somewhat smaller contract that we signed during the quarter. And next quarter, IPR revenues will be impacted by several expiring patent renewal discussions and 5G license negotiations. So assuming we don't sign those during the quarter, we estimate IPR revenues to be between SEK 1 billion and SEK 1.5 billion in the first quarter 2022.

    IPR 收入,本季度為 24 億瑞典克朗,包括我們簽署的一份合同的部分追溯收入——我們在本季度簽署的合同規模較小。下個季度,知識產權收入將受到幾項即將到期的專利更新討論和 5G 許可談判的影響。因此,假設我們在本季度不簽署這些協議,我們估計 2022 年第一季度的知識產權收入將在 10 億至 15 億瑞典克朗之間。

  • Börje showed us earlier the graph on gross margin numbers, the rolling 4 quarter profile there. And as you saw, gross margin then excluding restructuring charges amounted to 43.5%, which is an improvement of 290 basis points year-over-year with improvement in every segment.

    Börje 早些時候向我們展示了毛利率數據圖表,其中滾動的第 4 季度概況。正如你所看到的,不包括重組費用的毛利率為 43.5%,同比提高 290 個基點,每個細分市場都有所改善。

  • In Networks, we saw continued operational leverage. And in Digital Services, the share of software as a portion of total sales increased. And of course, both of these fully in line with strategy.

    在網絡方面,我們看到了持續的運營槓桿。在數字服務中,軟件佔總銷售額的份額有所增加。當然,這兩者完全符合戰略。

  • And in Digital Services, again, the 5G core sales started now to progress well, and we saw revenues increasing in the quarter as we deliver on these contracts. Of course, this will continue going forward as well. To date, we have landed 50 5G core contracts.

    在數字服務方面,5G 核心銷售現在開始進展順利,隨著我們履行這些合同,我們看到本季度的收入有所增長。當然,這也將繼續向前發展。截至目前,我們已獲得50個5G核心合同。

  • R&D expenses, as you see, now SEK 11.7 billion, up from SEK 10.5 billion. And this is really following our decisions to invest across the group in the 5G portfolio, but also the addition of Cradlepoint, if we make the year-over-year comparison.

    如您所見,研發費用從 105 億瑞典克朗增加到 117 億瑞典克朗。如果我們進行同比比較,這確實是在我們決定在整個集團投資 5G 產品組合之後,以及 Cradlepoint 的加入之後。

  • EBIT then at SEK 12.3 billion or -- an improvement of 12% versus last year. And of course, this represents then an EBIT margin of 17.3%, as Börje mentioned as well, which is a 150 basis point improvement year-over-year.

    息稅前利潤為 123 億瑞典克朗,比去年增長 12%。當然,正如 Börje 所提到的那樣,這代表了 17.3% 的息稅前利潤率,同比提高了 150 個基點。

  • I wanted to point out net income as well. Strong growth on net income level, 41% up year-over-year to SEK 10.1 billion. Of course, it's a result of the improved earnings as such, but also reduced taxes. And we'll come back to taxes a little bit more when we look at the full year performance in a moment here and free cash flow as well.

    我也想指出淨收入。淨收入增長強勁,同比增長 41% 至 101 億瑞典克朗。當然,這是收入增加和稅收減少的結果。當我們在這裡查看全年業績和自由現金流時,我們會更多地回到稅收上。

  • So let's do exactly that. Let's turn over to the next slide and look at the full year in numbers. So reported sales, as you see, then SEK 232.3 billion, which is rather flat reported than compared with last year, but organically, it's a growth of 4%. And again, if we were to exclude China, it's a growth of 8%.

    因此,讓我們做到這一點。讓我們翻到下一張幻燈片,看看全年的數字。如您所見,報告的銷售額為 2323 億瑞典克朗,與去年相比持平,但有機增長了 4%。再一次,如果我們排除中國,增長率為 8%。

  • Hardware now actually consists of 46% of the sales mix in the group. That's up from 41% in 2020, which is a strong development as well. It shows the demand for our offering. Gross margin improved 290 basis points again to 43.5%. Continued improvements across the board in spite actually of a drop of IPR revenues of about SEK 1.8 billion less than last year.

    硬件現在實際上佔該集團銷售組合的 46%。這比 2020 年的 41% 有所上升,這也是一個強勁的發展。它顯示了對我們產品的需求。毛利率再次提高 290 個基點至 43.5%。儘管知識產權收入實際上比去年減少了約 18 億瑞典克朗,但全面持續改善。

  • In Networks, continued operational leverage, I said that before also commenting on the quarter, but that's also true for the full year. And the gross margin in Networks was 47%, improvement of 320 basis points in Networks. Digital Services, 42% gross margin, impacted, of course, as we have discussed quite a lot in these calls earlier, impacted by the initial cost for 5G core contract deployment.

    在網絡中,持續的運營槓桿,我在評論該季度之前說過,但全年也是如此。 Networks 的毛利率為 47%,提高了 320 個基點。數字服務,42% 的毛利率,當然會受到影響,正如我們之前在這些電話會議中討論過的那樣,受到 5G 核心合同部署初始成本的影響。

  • But as I said, during the year, we have seen a good increase in revenues from the 5G core contracts, and we expect that to continue as the traffic in 5G network grows.

    但正如我所說,在這一年裡,我們看到 5G 核心合同的收入有了很好的增長,我們預計隨著 5G 網絡流量的增長,這種情況會持續下去。

  • OpEx, as you see here, SEK 68.8 million. SG&A rather flat. And there on SG&A, we continue to focus on efficiency and tight cost control throughout the organization. R&D, on the other hand, grew because we are investing in the 5G portfolio. So you see growth by SEK 2.6 billion year-over-year here.

    正如您在此處看到的那樣,運營支出為 6880 萬瑞典克朗。 SG&A 持平。在 SG&A 方面,我們繼續關注整個組織的效率和嚴格的成本控制。另一方面,研發增長是因為我們正在投資 5G 產品組合。所以你在這裡看到了 26 億瑞典克朗的同比增長。

  • We invest in cloud-native 5G portfolio in digital services. And in Networks, of course, in our 5G portfolio, plus the Cradlepoint acquisition, which also contributes here.

    我們投資於數字服務中的雲原生 5G 產品組合。在網絡方面,當然,在我們的 5G 產品組合中,加上對 Cradlepoint 的收購,這也在這方面做出了貢獻。

  • EBITA margin came out at 14.6%. And as you know, this is the metric we use for the long-term target. And as Börje now said, and this is an important piece of the report today, that we say that the long-term target is now going to be reached. That's our expectation and ambition within 2, 3 years.

    EBITA 利潤率為 14.6%。如您所知,這是我們用於長期目標的指標。正如 Börje 現在所說的,這是今天報告的一個重要部分,我們說現在將實現長期目標。這是我們在2、3年內的期望和雄心。

  • So continuing down the P&L and the EBIT margin here, SEK 32.3 billion, excluding restructuring, up from SEK 29.1 billion. This is then an EBIT margin of 13.9%, which is just at the upper part of the range for the 2022 target, which thereby is reached 1 year early, as Börje said already.

    因此,繼續降低 P&L 和 EBIT 利潤率,從 291 億瑞典克朗上升到 323 億瑞典克朗(不包括重組)。這就是 13.9% 的息稅前利潤率,剛好位於 2022 年目標區間的上半部分,因此正如 Börje 所說,該目標提前一年實現。

  • Also a few comments on tax then. So as now, our profitability grew. We were also able to utilize a bit more of the tax assets we have, the withholding tax assets. And effective tax rate now came out at 21% compared actually with 35% in 2020.

    然後還有一些關於稅收的評論。所以和現在一樣,我們的盈利能力在增長。我們還能夠利用更多的稅收資產,即預扣稅資產。現在的有效稅率為 21%,而 2020 年實際為 35%。

  • But there was a one-off benefit from impaired withholding tax assets that we were now able to utilize in the fourth quarter. So if we add that back as a bit of a one-off, the effective tax rate would be at 25%, still down 10 percentage units then from 2020.

    但是,我們現在能夠在第四季度使用的減值預扣稅資產帶來了一次性收益。因此,如果我們一次性將其加回去,則有效稅率將為 25%,但仍比 2020 年下降了 10 個百分點。

  • Earnings per share fully diluted, SEK 6.81. And I want to mention return also; return on capital employed came out at 18.4%, which is an increase from 17% last year. And both of these numbers include the cash position to the full extent, but we can also calculate excluding cash and then ROCE would then have been 37%.

    完全稀釋後的每股收益為 6.81 瑞典克朗。我還想提一下回報;已動用資本回報率為 18.4%,高於去年的 17%。這兩個數字都完全包括現金頭寸,但我們也可以計算出不包括現金,那麼 ROCE 將是 37%。

  • So let's move from P&L metrics into cash flow and look at how the earnings translated into free cash flow then. First of all on -- cash flow from operating activities increased to SEK 15.2 billion in the quarter. And that led us to a full year outcome of SEK 39.1 billion, and this is about SEK 10 billion better than 2020.

    因此,讓我們從損益指標轉向現金流,然後看看收益如何轉化為自由現金流。首先 - 本季度經營活動產生的現金流量增加到 152 億瑞典克朗。這使我們實現了 391 億瑞典克朗的全年業績,這比 2020 年多了約 100 億瑞典克朗。

  • We do put a lot of focus on working capital in our company end to end. And we have seen the curve improve overall this year since 2017. And of course, this year, I can say the working capital was -- or this quarter, I should say, the working capital was helped by certain prepayments also by customers. And the other important factor that happened in working capital is really the increased investments in inventory levels to manage the supply situation.

    我們確實非常關注公司端到端的營運資金。自 2017 年以來,我們看到今年的曲線總體上有所改善。當然,今年,我可以說營運資金是 - 或者本季度,我應該說,營運資金也得到了客戶的某些預付款的幫助。營運資金中發生的另一個重要因素實際上是增加庫存水平投資以管理供應情況。

  • But on the other hand, that was offset at least partly by an increase in accounts payable during the quarter. So if continue down this table, then you see the free cash flow of SEK 13.5 billion. And this is really the key metric for us, free cash flow before M&A. And that led us to a free cash flow before M&A for the full year of SEK 32.1 billion, which is an increase of SEK 10 billion from the year before. And that, in turn, was actually an increase of about SEK 15 billion from the previous year 2019. And this translates for the full year into 13.8% free cash flow as a percentage of net sales.

    但另一方面,這至少部分被本季度應付賬款的增加所抵消。因此,如果繼續向下看這張表,您會看到 135 億瑞典克朗的自由現金流。這確實是我們的關鍵指標,併購前的自由現金流。這使我們全年的併購前自由現金流為 321 億瑞典克朗,比前一年增加了 100 億瑞典克朗。反過來,這實際上比上一年 2019 年增加了約 150 億瑞典克朗。這意味著全年自由現金流占淨銷售額的百分比為 13.8%。

  • And as you know, we have talked about the long-term target on this metric, between 9% and 12%, so we clearly beat that target also in 2021. And on the back of this strong cash flow generated during the year and in the quarter, we managed to increase our net cash position with SEK 10 billion. It now amounts to SEK 65.8 billion. And the gross cash position is SEK 97.6 billion, up around SEK 26 billion if you compare with a year ago.

    如您所知,我們已經討論了該指標的長期目標,在 9% 到 12% 之間,因此我們在 2021 年也明顯超過了該目標。在這一年和本季度,我們設法增加了 100 億瑞典克朗的淨現金頭寸。現在達到 658 億瑞典克朗。總現金頭寸為 976 億瑞典克朗,與一年前相比增加了約 260 億瑞典克朗。

  • And the majority of that increase comes from cash flow that we have generated in the business and a smaller part, say, about SEK 2 billion comes from net activities from long-term debt. And we have checked the history books of Ericsson, and so far, we haven't found a higher net cash position than the SEK 65.8 billion in the history of the company.

    大部分增長來自我們在業務中產生的現金流,還有一小部分,比如大約 20 億瑞典克朗來自長期債務的淨活動。而我們查閱了愛立信的歷史賬簿,到目前為止,我們還沒有發現公司歷史上比658億瑞典克朗更高的淨現金頭寸。

  • Vonage, mentioned already by Börje, expected to close now Q1 or Q2. And that's, as you know, a USD 6.2 billion acquisition. And now of course, we have -- as we have continued to build up the cash position now compared with when we announced the acquisition, we are going to be able to fund this with cash at hand. So that's good.

    Börje 已經提到的 Vonage 預計將在第一季度或第二季度結束。如您所知,這是一項價值 62 億美元的收購。當然,現在我們已經 - 與我們宣布收購時相比,我們現在繼續建立現金頭寸,我們將能夠用手頭現金為其提供資金。所以這很好。

  • And before handing back to you, Börje here, I just wanted to point you in the direction of Page 13 in the report where we have included certain key data points, including the Dell'Oro market forecast, for example, and some data on seasonality, et cetera. But with that, thank you, and I hand back to you, Börje.

    在交還給你之前,Börje,我只想向你指出報告第 13 頁的方向,我們在報告中包含了某些關鍵數據點,例如 Dell'Oro 市場預測和一些季節性數據等等。但是,謝謝你,我還給你,Börje。

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Carl. So to sum up, we're proud to report a solid quarter to complete a very strong year for Ericsson. We continue to be well-positioned to take advantage of the market growth opportunities as 5G continues to ramp globally.

    謝謝你,卡爾。總而言之,我們很自豪地報告一個穩健的季度,為愛立信完成了非常強勁的一年。隨著 5G 在全球範圍內的不斷發展,我們將繼續處於有利地位,以利用市場增長機會。

  • The business momentum remains very strong. With the strong core mobile infrastructure business, we can now take advantage of growth opportunities in the enterprise segment. Our expansion into enterprise is focused on leveraging our capabilities from the core mobile infrastructure business. In a few years, we will have fundamentally shifted our business mix towards much higher portion of revenues coming from enterprises with a higher growth potential as well as profit potential.

    業務勢頭仍然非常強勁。憑藉強大的核心移動基礎設施業務,我們現在可以利用企業領域的增長機會。我們向企業擴張的重點是利用我們在核心移動基礎設施業務方面的能力。幾年後,我們將從根本上改變我們的業務組合,使收入中的大部分來自具有更高增長潛力和利潤潛力的企業。

  • Our strategy is on track. We invest in R&D to deliver technology leadership, which, in turn, can drive incremental growth in our core business. In wireless enterprise growth, we're committed to closing, of course, the Vonage transaction, and thereby, we can continue the excellent work already begun by Rory and the rest of the Vonage team, and we hope they will join us very shortly.

    我們的戰略步入正軌。我們投資於研發以提供技術領先地位,這反過來又可以推動我們核心業務的增量增長。在無線企業發展方面,我們當然致力於完成 Vonage 交易,因此,我們可以繼續 Rory 和 Vonage 團隊其他成員已經開始的出色工作,我們希望他們很快加入我們。

  • In the longer term, we see here that we will also leverage the platform we get through Vonage to create new, very valuable APIs for wireless communication and network capabilities, and that's going to be delivered through our global network platform.

    從長遠來看,我們在這裡看到,我們還將利用我們通過 Vonage 獲得的平台為無線通信和網絡功能創建非常有價值的新 API,並將通過我們的全球網絡平台交付。

  • All of this means better monetization potential for both our customers, the CSPs, as well as Ericsson by providing the 5G APIs to Vonage global developer community. I'm truly excited of what lies ahead as we gear up for growth where we expect the enterprise segment, as I said, to provide higher growth potential as well as profitability than our core infrastructure business.

    通過向 Vonage 全球開發者社區提供 5G API,所有這些都意味著我們的客戶、CSP 和愛立信都有更好的貨幣化潛力。正如我所說,正如我所說,我們希望企業部門能夠提供比我們的核心基礎設施業務更高的增長潛力和盈利能力,因此我對未來的發展感到非常興奮。

  • This makes it now our key focus to really achieve the long-term target of EBITA margin of 15% to 18%, and we should be able to do that no later than 2 to 3 years out. And at that point in time, we will have a better profit potential -- profit mix as well as growth potential in the company.

    這使得我們現在的重點是真正實現 15% 到 18% 的 EBITA 利潤率的長期目標,我們應該能夠在不遲於 2 到 3 年的時間內做到這一點。屆時,我們將擁有更好的利潤潛力——利潤組合以及公司的增長潛力。

  • So with that, I would like to conclude this part of the presentation and give the word back to you, Peter, for questions.

    因此,我想結束演示的這一部分,並把話還給你,彼得,讓你提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Great. Thank you. The first question is from Alex Duval at Goldman Sachs.

    偉大的。謝謝你。第一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Duval。

  • Alexander Duval - Equity Analyst

    Alexander Duval - Equity Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong results. Firstly, you delivered another quarter of very strong gross margins, both in the quarter but also on a trailing 4-quarter basis. Understand you talk about investments in product quality. But I'm just curious to what extent this could be due to having less of a position in China? And how much of a structural benefit that is? And more broadly, what are the key drivers of your strong gross margins and how sustainable should we expect that to be into '22? A lot of investors are interested in that, just given one of your competitors appears to be executing better on product quality.

    祝賀你取得了優異的成績。首先,您在本季度和連續第 4 個季度的基礎上又交付了非常強勁的毛利率。了解您談論的是對產品質量的投資。但我很好奇這在多大程度上可能是由於在中國的職位較少?那有多少結構性好處?更廣泛地說,你們強勁的毛利率的主要驅動因素是什麼?我們應該期望它在 22 世紀的可持續發展程度如何?很多投資者對此很感興趣,因為你的一個競爭對手似乎在產品質量方面做得更好。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • I can start for sure. Thanks, Alex. I think what we see now in -- when it comes to gross margin, first of all, it's across the board. So we see improvement in all segments. That's encouraging for us. It's not just one part, but all parts. When it comes to the key drivers for gross margin, I think it's really the technology level that we are able to offer to customers in combination with the constant improvement of the cost position also of the product or the offerings.

    我可以肯定地開始。謝謝,亞歷克斯。我認為我們現在看到的——當談到毛利率時,首先,它是全面的。因此,我們看到所有細分市場都有所改善。這對我們來說是鼓舞人心的。不只是一個部分,而是所有部分。當談到毛利率的關鍵驅動因素時,我認為這實際上是我們能夠為客戶提供的技術水平,以及產品或服務成本狀況的不斷改善。

  • And there, I think our R&D team is doing a great job in improving the product, designing it for a better cost position, but also actually better and better serviceability, installability in the field. Which means a lot as well for the customer satisfaction, of course, for lead times, but also for our gross margins. I think there in lies the key drivers of gross margin. Anything to add, Börje?

    在那裡,我認為我們的研發團隊在改進產品方面做得很好,為更好的成本位置設計它,但實際上也越來越好可維護性和現場安裝性。這對客戶滿意度也很重要,當然,對交貨時間,對我們的毛利率也很重要。我認為這是毛利率的主要驅動因素。 Börje 有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • I would say that the reality is also that we have actually taken market share, which we should remember. And we've said that before, actually is margin dilutive in the short term, but very margin-enhancing long term. So -- and if you look at the numbers, you see actually quite a lot of headwind coming that way. So we feel quite comfortable about the gross margin going forward, to be clear on that.

    我會說現實也是我們實際上已經佔據了市場份額,我們應該記住這一點。我們之前說過,實際上在短期內會稀釋利潤率,但從長遠來看會提高利潤率。所以——如果你看一下這些數字,你會發現實際上有很多不利因素。因此,我們對未來的毛利率感到非常滿意,對此要明確。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Börje. Thanks, Alex, for that question. Moving forward to Alexander Peterc at Societe Generale.

    謝謝,Börje。謝謝亞歷克斯提出這個問題。轉向法國興業銀行的亞歷山大彼得克。

  • Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst

    Aleksander Peterc - Equity Analyst

  • I have actually 2. One is just in terms of regions, very strong growth in Europe, LatAm and you commented on that already in your opening remarks. But could you perhaps tell us where you are now in terms of market share gains momentum there? Is there still more to come in this region due to geopolitical shifts? And where we are in terms of 5G rollouts? Have we seen the peak here or do you still see strong growth going forward there?

    我實際上有 2 個。一個是就地區而言,歐洲、拉美的增長非常強勁,您已經在開場白中對此發表了評論。但你能否告訴我們你現在在市場份額增長勢頭方面的進展情況?由於地緣政治變化,這個地區還會有更多的事情發生嗎?我們在 5G 推出方面的進展如何?我們在這裡看到了高峰,還是您仍然看到那裡的強勁增長?

  • And then the second question is more on targets. So congratulations on meeting or exceeding them nearly on all counts, but don't you think there's now time to have a new set of comprehensive, more relevant targets beyond just the EBITA 15% to 20% goal? When do you intend to update us comprehensively on that front?

    然後第二個問題更多是關於目標的。所以祝賀你幾乎在所有方面都達到或超過了它們,但你不認為現在是時候制定一套新的全面的、更相關的目標,而不僅僅是 EBITA 15% 到 20% 的目標嗎?您打算什麼時候在這方面全面更新我們?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • We think we're still relatively early in the 5G rollouts, if you look on the globe. So we will continue to see good demand for 5G going forward, that's for sure. But I would also say one more thing, and that's on market share gains. Your question kind of hinted towards the geopolitical situation being a key driver of the market share gains. I will say it's not.

    如果您放眼全球,我們認為我們在 5G 推出方面仍處於相對較早的階段。因此,我們將繼續看到對 5G 的良好需求,這是肯定的。但我還要說一件事,那就是市場份額的增加。你的問題有點暗示地緣政治局勢是市場份額增長的關鍵驅動力。我會說不是。

  • So in the markets where we have gained footprint, part of it can be explained by geopolitics, but most of it actually is perfectly competitive markets and open markets. So I would say the market share gains in reality comes much more out of a competitive product portfolio and the big investments we made in R&D to make sure that we are on the forefront of performance.

    所以我們有足蹟的市場,一部分可以用地緣政治來解釋,但大部分其實是完全競爭市場和開放市場。所以我想說,市場份額的增長實際上更多地來自具有競爭力的產品組合和我們在研發方面的大量投資,以確保我們處於性能的最前沿。

  • And that's why I want to reiterate that when we start to look at in-field performance of our equipment and networks, we see that we actually have -- we come out with very high performance rankings wherever we do them across the board. And that's something we don't take lightly. It's something we invest for and something that we're committed to deliver to our customers. Maybe you take the goals question or targets.

    這就是為什麼我想重申,當我們開始查看我們的設備和網絡的現場性能時,我們發現我們實際上擁有 - 無論我們在哪裡全面進行,我們都會得出非常高的性能排名。這是我們不會掉以輕心的事情。這是我們投資的東西,也是我們致力於為客戶提供的東西。也許你會提出目標問題或目標。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Yes, exactly. Alexander, you asked about the targets also. I think what is important here is that, first of all, that we exceeded -- or sorry, we reached 2022 target 1 year early. And of course, also, we do have a different mix. We are investing in enterprise in a way that was not visible back in 2018 when we put up this 2022 target.

    對,就是這樣。亞歷山大,你也問了目標。我認為這裡重要的是,首先,我們超過了——或者抱歉,我們提前一年達到了 2022 年的目標。當然,我們也有不同的組合。我們正在以一種在 2018 年提出 2022 年目標時不可見的方式投資於企業。

  • So it becomes a little bit less relevant. And what we really want to -- the message we really want to send today is that we increase the ambition when it comes to the long-term EBITA, 15% to 18%. And we move it towards us in time and saying that we will have the ambition to reach that already in 2 to 3 years as opposed to a more diffuse or abstract long-term time horizon. So I think that's the key here. And we haven't spent time on the particular parts of 2022 targets. Now we look ahead, it's a 15% to 18% EBITA that will guide us going forward.

    所以它變得不那麼重要了。我們真正想要的——我們今天真正想要傳達的信息是,我們在長期 EBITA 方面提高了 15% 到 18% 的雄心。我們及時將其移交給我們,並表示我們將有雄心在 2 到 3 年內實現這一目標,而不是更分散或抽象的長期時間範圍。所以我認為這是這裡的關鍵。我們還沒有花時間研究 2022 年目標的特定部分。現在我們展望未來,15% 到 18% 的 EBITA 將指導我們前進。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Alexander, for those 2 questions. We'll move to Dominik Olszewski at Morgan and Stanley.

    亞歷山大,謝謝你提出這兩個問題。我們將轉到摩根士丹利的 Dominik Olszewski。

  • Dominik P. Olszewski - Research Analyst

    Dominik P. Olszewski - Research Analyst

  • So 2 of them. The first one is on the Networks outlook. So if we look a Dell'Oro, they've recently upgraded the outlook for RAN spending cumulatively out to 2025 by about 4% and roughly half of that is from improving pricing. So could you comment specifically on your ability to price favorably? And maybe tie that into what sounds like more limited supply chain disruptions that you've seen recently. So that's the first question.

    所以其中 2 個。第一個是關於網絡前景。因此,如果我們看一下 Dell'Oro,他們最近將 RAN 支出的前景累計上調至 2025 年約 4%,其中大約一半來自提高定價。那麼您能否具體評論一下您的定價能力?也許將其與您最近看到的聽起來更有限的供應鏈中斷聯繫起來。這是第一個問題。

  • And the second question is just more briefly, the margin performance in '21 is strong given that you have 5% increase in the hardware mix. So could you maybe just directionally give us a perspective on how the mix shifts between hardware, software and services for 2022? Obviously, at this point, let's exclude Vonage from that conversation.

    第二個問題更簡單地說,考慮到硬件組合增加了 5%,21 年的利潤率表現非常強勁。那麼,您能否直接向我們介紹一下 2022 年硬件、軟件和服務之間的組合如何變化?顯然,在這一點上,讓我們從該對話中排除 Vonage。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Okay. Should I maybe start with the second one around the mix question there? And it's right. We saw an increase of the hardware mix, which is actually very good because it means that we are shipping a lot of 5G equipment to customers as they build out the networks.

    好的。我是否應該從第二個關於混合問題的問題開始?這是對的。我們看到硬件組合有所增加,這實際上非常好,因為這意味著我們在客戶構建網絡時向他們運送了大量 5G 設備。

  • Of course -- and this is fully in line with what we want to do in our strategy. At the same time, over time, software will increase its share as well as Networks' capacity is increased. That's true for Networks, it's true for Digital Services, it's even true for Managed Services, where we are moving towards more of a software-like model. And of course, as well in emerging business, which is a lot around the scalable software solutions.

    當然——這完全符合我們在戰略中想要做的事情。同時,隨著時間的推移,軟件的份額將增加,網絡的容量也會增加。對於網絡來說是這樣,對於數字服務來說也是如此,對於託管服務也是如此,我們正在朝著更多類似軟件的模型發展。當然,還有新興業務,其中很多都圍繞著可擴展的軟件解決方案。

  • So I think without going into the specific metrics there, I think we're very happy about hardware having such a big part of the mix now today. And you see that we deliver great margins even with such a high part of hardware, which means -- and is another proof point of what we've said many times before, that the differences in margin between services, hardware and software has actually decreased quite a lot over time.

    因此,我認為無需深入了解具體指標,我認為我們對硬件在今天的組合中佔有如此大的比例感到非常高興。你會看到,即使硬件的比例如此之高,我們也能提供巨大的利潤,這意味著——這是我們之前多次說過的另一個證據,即服務、硬件和軟件之間的利潤差異實際上已經縮小了隨著時間的推移相當多。

  • It used to be very large differences. But now we are able to deliver both services, hardware and software with decent profitability levels, and we are very happy with that. But overall, I would say the overriding strategy is to increase the software share which we also see, for example, in Digital Services in this quarter.

    它曾經是非常大的差異。但現在我們能夠提供具有可觀盈利水平的服務、硬件和軟件,我們對此感到非常高興。但總的來說,我認為最重要的戰略是增加我們在本季度的數字服務中也看到的軟件份額。

  • When it comes to your question on the market and the Dell'Oro outlook, yes, I think we can repeat when it comes to 2021. The market outlook has constantly increased. The projections have increased. Now Dell'Oro is looking back at 2021, looks at 13% growth 2021, and now it's 3% or 4% for next year depending on if China is included or not. Let's see what will happen with the market. We clearly see a very good momentum, that's for sure, and very high demand from the customers as evidenced in the fourth quarter then.

    當談到你關於市場和 Dell'Oro 前景的問題時,是的,我認為我們可以在 2021 年重複。市場前景不斷增加。預測增加了。現在 Dell'Oro 正在回顧 2021 年,預計 2021 年增長 13%,現在明年增長 3% 或 4%,具體取決於是否包括中國。讓我們看看市場會發生什麼。我們清楚地看到了非常好的勢頭,這是肯定的,而且客戶的需求非常高,這在第四季度就得到了證明。

  • You mentioned the supply. I think we said everything we could around that, that we were managed -- we managed to navigate through these disturbances in the fourth quarter, and we will certainly continue to monitor that very carefully going forward.

    你提到了供應。我想我們已經竭盡全力解決這個問題,我們得到了管理——我們在第四季度設法度過了這些干擾,我們肯定會繼續非常仔細地監控這一點。

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Just to comment also on the mix question. I -- one thing that we have worked quite a lot on is to improve the resilience in the company. That -- one important part of that is to reduce the exposure to business mix as well as geographic mix. So you see us talk a lot less about the mix questions today than we did before. And the reason is that resiliency. And that's why we also feel more comfortable about operating the company with a lower, call it, capital or cash position going forward. And I think that's important to keep in mind.

    只是對混合問題發表評論。我 - 我們已經做了很多工作的一件事是提高公司的彈性。那 - 其中一個重要部分是減少對業務組合和地理組合的影響。所以你看到我們今天談論混音問題的次數比以前少了很多。原因是彈性。這就是為什麼我們也更願意以較低的資本或現金頭寸來運營公司。我認為記住這一點很重要。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Börje. And thanks, Dom. We'll move further to the next question, is from Francois Bouvignies at UBS.

    謝謝,Börje。謝謝,多姆。我們將進一步討論下一個問題,來自瑞銀的 Francois Bouvignies。

  • Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

    Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

  • I have 2 quick questions, if I may. I mean, 1 clarification actually. First is on your 2022 targets, what the IPR run rate do you assume in terms of sales for the full year 2022? And when you look at your EBITA target in 2 to 3 years' time, what is the IPR as well that you have in this forecast, i.e., the recent negotiations, do you take that into account or not would be helpful?

    如果可以的話,我有 2 個快速問題。我的意思是,實際上有 1 個澄清。首先是關於您的 2022 年目標,您假設 2022 年全年的 IPR 運行率是多少?當你在 2 到 3 年的時間裡查看你的 EBITA 目標時,你在這個預測中的 IPR 是多少,即最近的談判,你是否考慮到這一點會有幫助?

  • And the second question is on the OpEx, maybe Carl. I mean we have many questions around inflation and the impact on the supply chain. Can you help us understand what the OpEx run rate in 2022 may be that you see? Because you saw some seasonality, which is helpful, but I guess with the current environment, seasonality might be a bit different this time. So just trying to understand the OpEx run rate in '22 would be great.

    第二個問題是關於 OpEx,也許是 Carl。我的意思是我們對通貨膨脹及其對供應鏈的影響有很多疑問。您能否幫助我們了解您所看到的 2022 年 OpEx 運行率?因為你看到了一些季節性,這很有幫助,但我想在目前的環境下,這次季節性可能會有點不同。因此,僅嘗試了解 22 年的 OpEx 運行率就很好了。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Thanks, Francois. Should I take it?

    謝謝,弗朗索瓦。我應該接受嗎?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • On the OpEx side, and as you know, we refrain from guiding on specific individual lines too much on the P&L. It's really about the bigger value creation picture. But of course, there are inflationary pressures going on. And I can just say that our job, when it comes to SG&A, is, of course, to keep at cost discipline and efficiency to counter that, to counter salary increase pressures and other inflations.

    在 OpEx 方面,正如你所知,我們避免在 P&L 上過多地指導特定的個別項目。這實際上是關於更大的價值創造圖景。但當然,通脹壓力仍在繼續。我只能說,就 SG&A 而言,我們的工作當然是保持成本紀律和效率,以應對這種情況,應對加薪壓力和其他通貨膨脹。

  • Of course, having said that, there are certain investments that we decide to make. They have to do with compliance and security, digitization, as we have discussed before as well. But separate from SG&A, we have R&D. And there, of course, we will invest. If we see long-term value from R&D investments, we will certainly do that, and we will see both in the core business and in the enterprise side, of course, that we increase investments there.

    當然,話雖如此,我們還是決定進行某些投資。正如我們之前也討論過的那樣,它們與合規性和安全性、數字化有關。但與 SG&A 分開,我們有研發。當然,我們會在那裡投資。如果我們看到研發投資的長期價值,我們肯定會這樣做,我們會在核心業務和企業方面看到,當然,我們會增加那裡的投資。

  • When it comes to IPR, I don't want to get into too much of specifics there. Of course, now we are in the situation here with certain renewals going on. So I'll refrain from talking about amounts there. But of course, what we try to do is to maximize the IPR revenues that we have. We had historically a level of SEK 10 billion with a different currency rate, perhaps, but this is, of course, the level that we strive to reach and then exceed over time. That's what I can say about IPR.

    說到知識產權,我不想在那裡談太多細節。當然,現在我們處於這種情況,某些更新正在進行中。所以我不會在那裡談論數量。但當然,我們試圖做的是最大化我們擁有的知識產權收入。歷史上我們可能有 100 億瑞典克朗的水平,但貨幣匯率可能不同,但這當然是我們努力達到並隨著時間的推移超過的水平。關於知識產權,這就是我能說的。

  • Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

    Francois-Xavier Bouvignies - Technology Analyst

  • And Carl, just when you say that your midterm target is to reach SEK 10 billion or so on the IPR, is it what you assume for your long-term targets or EBITA then of 15% to 18%? Is that what you apply or do you assume -- yes, just trying to understand your long-term forecast?

    卡爾,當你說你的中期目標是在知識產權方面達到 100 億瑞典克朗左右時,你對你的長期目標或 EBITA 的假設是 15% 到 18% 嗎?這是你應用的還是你假設的——是的,只是想了解你的長期預測?

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Yes. I understand your question. We haven't broken down the 15% to 18% in the components as such. We more see that as what we, as a group, will achieve in 2, 3 years from now. Of course, there is a desire and ambition to grow the IPR revenues, but also margins in other parts of the business will -- or are expected to improve. So it's going to be a mix, and we don't single out individual components at this stage.

    是的。我明白你的問題。我們還沒有分解組件中的 15% 到 18%。我們更多地看到我們作為一個團隊將在 2、3 年後實現的目標。當然,有增加知識產權收入的願望和雄心,但業務其他部分的利潤率也將——或有望提高。所以這將是一個混合體,在這個階段我們不會挑出單個組件。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Okay. Thanks, Francois, for those 2 questions. We'll move to Sébastien Sztabowicz at Kepler Cheuvreux.

    好的。謝謝 Francois 提出的這兩個問題。我們將搬到 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Sébastien Sztabowicz。

  • Sébastien Sztabowicz - Head of Tech - Equipment Research

    Sébastien Sztabowicz - Head of Tech - Equipment Research

  • One question around China. How do you see the revenue trending in the coming quarters in China? And also could you please make an update on the actions you have been taking in the country to shift in profitability so far where we are staying right now?

    一個關於中國的問題。您如何看待中國未來幾個季度的收入趨勢?另外,您能否更新一下您在該國為改變我們目前所處的盈利能力所採取的行動?

  • A second one would be on the U.S. market. I'm looking at Dell'Oro's forecast for the U.S. calling for only 3% growth in North America in 2022. But when I'm listening to the management of AT&T and Verizon, it seems much more bullish than that in terms of mobile investment for the coming quarters with C-band spectrum deployment picking up. What is your personal view on the U.S. market outlook for the coming quarters?

    第二個將在美國市場上。我在看 Dell'Oro 對美國的預測,要求 2022 年北美只有 3% 的增長。但是當我聽 AT&T 和 Verizon 的管理層時,在移動投資方面似乎比他們樂觀得多隨著 C 波段頻譜部署的加快,未來幾個季度。您個人對未來幾個季度的美國市場前景有何看法?

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Should I start with China and you take U.S. perhaps, Börje?

    我應該先從中國開始,然後你從美國開始嗎,Börje?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Yes. On China, we see now that the reduced market share that was announced is the one we have basically in the business. We had some uptick in the fourth quarter, but that's more related to seasonality. So we can expect that we will keep this level around 3% market share.

    是的。在中國,我們現在看到所宣布的減少的市場份額基本上是我們在業務中所擁有的。我們在第四季度有所回升,但這更多地與季節性有關。因此,我們可以預期我們會將這一水平保持在 3% 左右的市場份額。

  • Of course, an ambition is to always stay close to customers and try to regain business and regain market share. But for planning purposes, I think we can assume that we will stay on that level for now. We have taken some actions in China to reduce costs and to rightsize the organization in relation to this new volume that we see in China. And that's already done, and we've taken that also restructuring costs associated with that already in Q4, so that's basically done already. On U.S.?

    當然,一個志向是始終貼近客戶,努力挽回業務,奪回市場份額。但出於規劃目的,我認為我們可以假設我們現在將保持在該水平。我們已經在中國採取了一些行動來降低成本,並根據我們在中國看到的這個新數量調整組織規模。這已經完成了,我們也已經在第四季度採取了與重組相關的成本,所以這基本上已經完成了。在美國?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. If we look at the Dell'Oro forecast, it's -- and I think it's often hard to predict how the ramp up of a new technology would look like, and I think that's what we've seen for 5G as well. So Dell'Oro has been a little bit behind. What is the reality, when we look around the world, is a very strong demand for 5G. And it's on the back of demand from, in a way, consumers and big enterprises to deploy the technology.

    是的。如果我們看一下 Dell'Oro 的預測,我認為通常很難預測一項新技術的發展會是什麼樣子,我認為這也是我們在 5G 中看到的情況。所以 Dell'Oro 有點落後了。放眼全球,現實情況是對 5G 的需求非常強勁。在某種程度上,這是基於消費者和大企業部署該技術的需求。

  • We see a growing interest from pretty much across the industry sectors, being in mining, being in manufacturing, being in logistics. So we see this demand for 5G picking up. That's why we're -- I'm on a more personal level, more optimistic about the growth forecast for 5G as well as I am the longevity of the investment cycle. Because, of course, you will first have to build coverage, you will have to build performance in dense urban areas, then you're going to build them in suburban, then you're going to build it on the countryside.

    我們看到幾乎所有行業的興趣都在增長,包括採礦業、製造業和物流業。因此,我們看到對 5G 的需求正在回升。這就是為什麼我們 - 我在更個人的層面上,對 5G 的增長預測以及我對投資週期的長壽更加樂觀。因為,當然,你首先必須建立覆蓋,你必須在密集的城市地區建立性能,然後你要在郊區建立它們,然後你要在農村建立它。

  • So we're going to see, at least is my view, a little longer investment cycle than we've seen before because the characteristics of 5G is so different from any other mobile technology that, in reality, was only consumer-centric.

    所以我們將看到,至少在我看來,投資週期比我們以前看到的要長一點,因為 5G 的特性與任何其他移動技術截然不同,實際上,它只是以消費者為中心。

  • With 5G, we're opening up one completely new field or new segment being enterprises. So I think we're underestimating the growth potential in 5G rollout. But we have also said that, not to be caught in our own Kool-Aid, it's better to take an external forecast, you will suffer from shortcomings, et cetera. But as you asked, I think it's fair to say that we are more optimistic near term and even more optimistic long term.

    借助 5G,我們正在開闢一個全新的領域或新的領域,即企業。所以我認為我們低估了 5G 推出的增長潛力。但我們也說過,不要陷入我們自己的 Kool-Aid,最好採用外部預測,你會遭受缺點等。但正如你所問,我認為可以公平地說,我們在短期內更樂觀,從長遠來看甚至更樂觀。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Börje; thanks, Carl, for those answers. Thanks, Sébastien. And then we'll move to Frank Maaø at DNB.

    謝謝,Börje;卡爾,謝謝你的回答。謝謝,塞巴斯蒂安。然後我們將轉到 DNB 的 Frank Maaø。

  • Frank Maaø - Analyst

    Frank Maaø - Analyst

  • Yes. So my question is really, first, how should we think about the target range that you have provided for Networks? I accept that -- the fact that you are saying that the 2022 targets for the group is no longer very relevant due to changes in the business mix. But if you zoom in on Networks for a moment, that there's a pretty large discrepancy between the target range and what you actually have delivered.

    是的。所以我的問題實際上是,首先,我們應該如何考慮您為網絡提供的目標範圍?我接受這一事實——你說的是由於業務組合的變化,該集團的 2022 年目標不再非常相關。但是,如果您放大網絡片刻,就會發現目標範圍與您實際交付的內容之間存在相當大的差異。

  • So my questions would be then what -- is there any key reasons for any margin erosion year-on-year in 2022? For instance, raw material inflation, component prices were rising and so on? Or do you expect that to basically be offset by the efficiencies that you pursue in design, in R&D and so on? So that's kind of my first question.

    所以我的問題是什麼 - 2022 年利潤率同比下降是否有任何關鍵原因?比如原材料漲價,零部件漲價等等?或者您是否希望這基本上被您在設計、研發等方面追求的效率所抵消?所以這是我的第一個問題。

  • And then if I may, a quick clarification, actually, if I understood about your statement on the DPA bridge issue correctly. Did you say that there actually has been a DPA breach? Or was that a misunderstanding on my part?

    然後,如果可以的話,快速澄清一下,實際上,如果我正確理解了你關於 DPA 橋問題的陳述。您是說確實存在 DPA 違規行為嗎?還是那是我的誤會?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • On the DPA, it's a correspondence from the DOJ that there is a breach. And they can determine that -- that's kind of their determination. When we have something more to talk about here, we will come back. I just literally -- it will be inappropriate to discuss any of the details.

    在 DPA 上,這是來自 DOJ 的一封信函,表明存在違規行為。他們可以確定——這就是他們的決心。當我們在這裡有更多要談的時候,我們會回來的。我只是字面意思——討論任何細節都是不合適的。

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Okay. And Frank, on the question of the target. I think -- I mean the real focus here is to move now to this long-term 2- to 3-year out EBITA targets. And so far, we haven't broken that down as to segments. Some point, we might come back with that, but so far, that is the group target.

    好的。弗蘭克,關於目標的問題。我認為 - 我的意思是這裡真正的重點是現在轉向這個長期的 2 到 3 年的 EBITA 目標。到目前為止,我們還沒有將其細分為細分市場。有些時候,我們可能會回來,但到目前為止,這是小組目標。

  • 2022 targets were, of course, broken down by segments. And if we look historically then at the Networks, we have been in this range or even above this range that we provided. We are not here today to guide specifically on Networks for 2022, but the targets remain. That's what we say. Of course, our entire job is to deliver as good profitability and growth as we possibly can in Networks for this year but also going forward. So I think that's about as much as we can say about this. But let's shift focus now to this 2- to 3-year out EBITA targets; that's really what's going to power our company now.

    當然,2022 年的目標是按部分細分的。如果我們從歷史上看網絡,我們一直在這個範圍內,甚至超過我們提供的這個範圍。我們今天在這裡並不是專門指導 2022 年的網絡,但目標仍然存在。這就是我們所說的。當然,我們的全部工作是在今年和未來盡可能地在網絡領域實現良好的盈利能力和增長。所以我認為這就是我們可以說的。但是,讓我們現在將注意力轉移到這個 2 到 3 年的 EBITA 目標上;這才是我們公司現在真正的動力。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Frank. We need to move to the next question. So thank you, Frank. And then we will move to Daniel Djurberg at Handelsbanken.

    謝謝,弗蘭克。我們需要轉到下一個問題。謝謝你,弗蘭克。然後我們將轉到 Handelsbanken 的 Daniel Djurberg。

  • Daniel Djurberg - Analyst

    Daniel Djurberg - Analyst

  • Congratulations. Two questions, if I may. The first Carl on the tax rate, effective at 25%. Can you give any guidance or some kind of ballpark, what could be prudent for 2022 to use as a -- given the mix that you expect? And also to Börje, except for the cellular enterprise private networks opportunity, a different -- what we see between 3G, 4G and 5G is this fixed wireless access, first responder networks, et cetera. Can you comment a little bit on your view on these markets if it can also help to prolong the 5G cycle?

    恭喜。兩個問題,如果可以的話。第一個卡爾稅率,有效稅率為 25%。您能否提供任何指導或某種大概的情況,考慮到您期望的組合,2022 年可以謹慎使用什麼?對於 Börje 來說,除了蜂窩企業專用網絡機會之外,我們在 3G、4G 和 5G 之間看到的是固定無線接入、急救網絡等。如果也有助於延長5G週期,您能否談談您對這些市場的看法?

  • Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

    Carl Mellander - Senior VP, CFO and Head of Group Function Finance & Common Functions

  • Okay. Thanks, Daniel, yes. On the tax rates, I would say the 25% that we have now for 2021, that is a good indication of where we should be with the current mix, geographical mix and so on and the profitability levels we have. I think it's a fairly good assumption to use going forward as well.

    好的。謝謝,丹尼爾,是的。關於稅率,我想說我們現在 2021 年的稅率為 25%,這很好地表明了我們當前的組合、地域組合等以及我們的盈利水平。我認為這也是一個很好的假設,可以繼續使用。

  • As you know, we come from much, much higher levels. And it's really how the company is set up. We do have tax losses from past history, as you know, which means that as we become more profitable, the tax rate actually comes down. This is exactly what we see happening now.

    如您所知,我們來自更高、更高的層次。這確實是公司的成立方式。如您所知,我們確實有過去歷史上的稅收損失,這意味著隨著我們變得更有利可圖,稅率實際上會下降。這正是我們現在看到的情況。

  • Then, of course, there will be changes over time in terms of geographical mix. Let's say, if we increase the presence strongly in the U.S. for example, through the enterprise side or other changes that could impact this percentage as well. But again, if you look at the underlying business today, this is a fair representation of where we should be.

    然後,當然,在地理組合方面會隨著時間的推移而發生變化。比方說,如果我們大力增加在美國的存在,例如,通過企業方面或其他可能影響這一百分比的變化。但同樣,如果你看看今天的基礎業務,這是對我們應該達到的位置的公平代表。

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • And you're absolutely right. We're a little bit brushing away some of the actually very big opportunities, like fixed wireless access, like first responders. Just as a small comparison, what we see in 4G where actually fixed wireless access have been rolled out in certain countries around the world, we see a very rapid uptick or uptake of that service. And that is nowhere near where it will be on a 5G network.

    你是絕對正確的。我們有點忽略了一些實際上非常大的機會,比如固定無線接入,比如急救人員。作為一個小的比較,我們在 4G 中看到,在世界上某些國家/地區實際上已經推出了固定無線接入,我們看到該服務的增長或採用非常迅速。這與 5G 網絡上的情況相去甚遠。

  • So we're actually very optimistic that we will start to see fixed wireless access to be rolled out across the world in many geographies and actually provide an additional market segment that today is rather limited. And the interesting thing, when you look at -- many countries have a commitment to build out broadband to the consumer and to households and provide 98% coverage, and some say 100%, et cetera.

    因此,我們實際上非常樂觀,我們將開始看到固定無線接入在全球許多地區推出,並實際上提供了一個今天相當有限的額外細分市場。有趣的是,當你看的時候——許多國家都承諾為消費者和家庭建設寬帶,並提供 98% 的覆蓋率,有些人說是 100%,等等。

  • Actually, wireless is a much faster way to do that. And you can almost, in most countries, build out the 5G coverage that will give you a true broadband experience for the consumer in much shorter time at a much lower cost than you can do with a fixed network.

    實際上,無線是一種更快的方法。在大多數國家,你幾乎可以建立 5G 覆蓋範圍,這將比固定網絡在更短的時間內以更低的成本為消費者提供真正的寬帶體驗。

  • So I'm actually convinced that we're going to see fixed wireless access becoming a large submarket in the 5G consumer market. Then we're going to see the enterprises, which clearly has a lot of interest. It's probably going to take a little bit longer for that to materialize than I think fixed wireless access.

    所以我實際上相信,我們將看到固定無線接入成為 5G 消費市場的一個大子市場。然後我們將看到企業,它們顯然很感興趣。這可能比我認為的固定無線接入需要更長的時間才能實現。

  • We see first responders around the world, they have already migrated over to 4G to some extent, but we see an increasing interest to go over to 5G as well. So there are a number of, call them new segments, which have not really been factored into the market forecast for 5G. And that's why I say that my perspective is we will see higher growth much longer than anyone predicts today.

    我們看到世界各地的急救人員,他們已經在某種程度上遷移到 4G,但我們也看到越來越多的人對遷移到 5G 感興趣。所以有很多,稱之為新的細分市場,並沒有真正被納入 5G 的市場預測。這就是為什麼我說我的觀點是我們將看到更高的增長比今天任何人預測的要長得多。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Yes. Thanks, Daniel. We will move into this session's last question, but I see you have quite a long line here. And please reach out to either the IR team or the media team, so we can answer those questions. So the last question is from Peter Kurt Nielsen at ABG. So please, Peter?

    是的。謝謝,丹尼爾。我們將進入本次會議的最後一個問題,但我看到你們在這裡排了很長的隊。請聯繫 IR 團隊或媒體團隊,以便我們回答這些問題。最後一個問題來自 ABG 的 Peter Kurt Nielsen。那麼,彼得?

  • Peter Kurt Nielsen - Lead Analyst

    Peter Kurt Nielsen - Lead Analyst

  • I'll do it brief. A question on Digital Services, please. You reiterate your expectations for '22 with a positive tune towards the second half of the year. Your comments on your long-term margins potentially exceeding those in Digital Services. Would it be correct to interpret your view on Digital Services that once the business turns breakeven, positively impacted by the growing 5G core revenues, the curve towards those profitability targets will perhaps be steeper than initially thought and the route post breakeven up to those targets will be quite quick? Would that be a correct interpretation?

    我會做簡短的。請問一個關於數字服務的問題。您重申了對 22 年下半年的積極預期。您對長期利潤的評論可能會超過數字服務中的評論。您對數字服務的看法是否正確,即一旦業務實現收支平衡,受到 5G 核心收入增長的積極影響,實現這些盈利目標的曲線可能會比最初想像的更陡峭,並且實現這些目標的收支平衡路線將會很快嗎?那是正確的解釋嗎?

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • The reality is the turnaround of Digital Services will be on the back of better software revenues. And that's why I would also say that my prediction is that we will, as soon as we reach breakeven and reach the volume to be at breakeven, it's actually a smoother development and faster development to reach the higher margins. But it requires us to gain the volume, the software volume to reach the breakeven. That's going to take a bit of time. That's what we -- especially when we lost China.

    事實上,數字服務的好轉將得益於更好的軟件收入。這就是為什麼我還要說我的預測是,一旦我們達到盈虧平衡並達到盈虧平衡的數量,它實際上是一個更平穩的發展和更快的發展以達到更高的利潤率。但這需要我們獲得數量,軟件數量才能達到盈虧平衡。這需要一點時間。這就是我們——尤其是當我們失去中國的時候。

  • And as you know, China is really the first country to roll out any massive traffic on 5G networks. So that's why it's so meaningful that we lost that. But now we see that the rest of the world will start to generate those revenues, but they come in the back of this year.

    如您所知,中國確實是第一個在 5G 網絡上推出任何海量流量的國家。所以這就是為什麼它如此有意義以至於我們失去了它。但現在我們看到世界其他地區將開始產生這些收入,但它們是在今年晚些時候出現的。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thanks, Börje. Thanks, Peter. Thank you. Before ending today's Q&A session and presentation over the Q1 -- sorry, Q4 results for 2021, a short closing remark from you, Börje.

    謝謝,Börje。謝謝,彼得。謝謝你。在結束今天的問答環節和第一季度的介紹之前——抱歉,2021 年第四季度的結果,Börje,您的簡短結束語。

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Peter, and thanks, everyone, for listening in. We feel that we are continuing to execute on our strategy to extend the leadership in the mobile -- or core mobile infrastructure business, where we see very strong demand for 5G as we have discussed now, but we also see a great opportunity to pivot the company towards an enterprise business, which we will establish over the coming few years. And in 2 to 3 years, it will be a meaningful contributor to reaching the long-term target of an EBITDA margin of 15% to 18%, and we see that we should be able to do that in the next 2 to 3 years. And we're at least on this side, extraordinarily excited about the outlook for the 5G market, but also what we can do in the enterprise field.

    謝謝 Peter,也謝謝大家的傾聽。我們認為我們正在繼續執行我們的戰略,以擴大在移動或核心移動基礎設施業務中的領導地位,我們看到對 5G 的需求非常強勁,因為我們已經現在討論,但我們也看到了一個很好的機會,可以將公司轉向企業業務,我們將在未來幾年內建立這一業務。在 2 到 3 年內,它將對實現 EBITDA 利潤率 15% 到 18% 的長期目標做出有意義的貢獻,我們認為我們應該能夠在未來 2 到 3 年內做到這一點。至少在這一方面,我們對 5G 市場的前景以及我們在企業領域可以做的事情感到非常興奮。

  • Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

    Peter Nyquist - VP & Head of IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

    E. Börje Ekholm - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。