EQT Corp (EQT) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending today's EQT Q2 2022 Quarterly Results Conference Call. My name is Tia, and I will be your moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Cameron Horwitz, you may proceed.

早上好，女士們，先生們。感謝您參加今天的 EQT 2022 年第二季度季度業績電話會議。我的名字是 Tia，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給您的主持人 Cameron Horwitz，您可以繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2022 earnings results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and David Khani, Chief Financial Officer. The replay for today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening. In a moment, Toby and Dave will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow. An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2022 年第二季度收益結果電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官托比賴斯；和首席財務官 David Khani。從今晚開始，我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的重播。稍後，Toby 和 Dave 將介紹他們準備好的評論以及隨後的問答環節。更新的投資者演示文稿已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中參考某些幻燈片。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of the factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation and the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異，因為昨天的收益發布、我們的投資者介紹和我們的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的後續文件中描述的因素。我們不承擔任何更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還可能包含某些非公認會計原則的財務措施。請參閱我們最近的收益發布和投資者介紹，了解有關此類措施的重要披露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務措施的對賬。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone. Since our first quarter call, we have seen significant commodity price and equity market volatility. However, one thing that has not changed is the growing recognition that the world needs more clean, low-cost U.S. natural gas supply in order to achieve its climate goals, drive down inflation and provide energy security, both domestically and to our allies abroad. We're seeing this recognition play out on a global stage with positive signposts and support for natural gas as a key fuel source for decades to come. One such example is the recent vote from the EU Parliament to include natural gas investment as climate-friendly under the European taxonomy starting in 2023.

謝謝，Cam，大家早上好。自第一季度電話會議以來，我們已經看到大宗商品價格和股市大幅波動。然而，沒有改變的一件事是越來越多的人認識到，世界需要更清潔、更低成本的美國天然氣供應，以實現其氣候目標、降低通貨膨脹並為國內和國外盟友提供能源安全。我們正在看到這種認可在全球舞台上發揮積極作用，並支持天然氣作為未來幾十年的主要燃料來源。一個這樣的例子是歐盟議會最近投票決定從 2023 年開始將天然氣投資作為氣候友好型投資納入歐洲分類法。

The systems like this highlight the global shift toward embracing pragmatic energy solutions that can address climate change by attacking the largest source of global emissions, which is foreign coal. In short, at a time when the world is being forced to determine what the best option is for affordable, clean and reliable energy, it is overwhelmingly turning to natural gas as the solution. Here at home, recent nationwide polling data shows the U.S. public is speaking loud and clear in support of more domestic natural gas development.

像這樣的系統突出了全球轉向採用務實的能源解決方案，這些解決方案可以通過攻擊全球最大的排放源——外國煤炭來應對氣候變化。簡而言之，當世界被迫確定什麼是負擔得起、清潔和可靠能源的最佳選擇時，它絕大多數都將天然氣作為解決方案。在國內，最近的全國民意調查數據顯示，美國公眾正在大聲而明確地支持更多的國內天然氣開發。

Specifically, the polling data shows nearly 2/3 of voters rank strengthening U.S. energy independence and reducing energy costs as their top priority today. Nearly 70% of voters support increasing U.S. natural gas production and a similar amount to support building new natural gas pipelines with majority support running across all party lines, and voters are more likely to support a candidate that supports natural gas development by a 33-point margin. Put simply, the American public is demanding that U.S. natural gas play a leading role in providing affordable and reliable energy to the world while also addressing climate change by replacing foreign call.

具體而言，民意調查數據顯示，近 2/3 的選民將加強美國能源獨立和降低能源成本列為當今的首要任務。近 70% 的選民支持增加美國的天然氣產量和類似數量的支持建設新的天然氣管道，多數支持跨越所有黨派，選民更有可能支持支持天然氣開發的候選人 33 個百分點利潤。簡而言之，美國公眾要求美國天然氣在向世界提供負擔得起的可靠能源方面發揮主導作用，同時通過替代外國電話來應對氣候變化。

And in a world that recognizes and acts on the need to unleash U.S. natural gas, EQT will thrive for several key reasons. First, we are the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. with a multi-decade high-return inventory. As shown on Slide 12 of our investor deck, we highlight breakeven pricing of our entire 1,800 core Marcellus inventory with every location generating a 10% or higher return at a natural gas price below $3 per Mcf. We note this core inventory has very rigid inclusion criteria, and a derisked view of our portfolio shows more than 2x upside to this location count across our broader acreage position. We believe this combination of depth and quality of our inventory is unrivaled among peers and gives us significant confidence in our ability to generate strong shareholder returns for as far as the eye can see.

在一個認識到釋放美國天然氣需求並採取行動的世界中，殷拓將因幾個關鍵原因而蓬勃發展。首先，我們是美國最大的天然氣生產商，擁有數十年的高回報庫存。如我們的投資者套牌的幻燈片 12 所示，我們強調了我們整個 1,800 個核心 Marcellus 庫存的盈虧平衡定價，每個地點以低於每千立方英尺 3 美元的天然氣價格產生 10% 或更高的回報。我們注意到這個核心庫存具有非常嚴格的納入標準，並且對我們的投資組合的去風險視圖顯示，在我們更廣泛的種植面積中，這個位置數量有 2 倍以上的上升空間。我們相信，我們庫存的這種深度和質量的結合在同行中是無與倫比的，這使我們對我們在所見即所得的情況下產生強勁的股東回報的能力充滿信心。

Second, our investment-grade credit ratings underscore the strength of our balance sheet, which we see as a key tenet for the long-term sustainability of our business and allows us to opportunistically lean into value-creating investments across commodity cycles. Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately $830 million of debt principal, and we plan to further fortify our balance sheet as we are raising our year-end '23 debt reduction goal by $1 billion to $2.5 billion to tactically capture the market discount currently available.

其次，我們的投資級信用評級突顯了我們資產負債表的實力，我們認為這是我們業務長期可持續發展的關鍵原則，並使我們能夠在大宗商品週期中投機取巧地進行創造價值的投資。年初至今，我們已經回購了大約 8.3 億美元的債務本金，我們計劃進一步加強我們的資產負債表，因為我們將 23 年年底的減債目標提高 10 億美元至 25 億美元，以從戰術上把握市場折扣目前可用。

Third, we have among the best ESG credentials across the entire energy sector, which is backed up by the progress highlighted in our recently released 2021 ESG report. As shown on Slide 14 of our deck, we have lowered our Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by 36% on an absolute basis and reduced our methane intensity by a similar amount in just 3 years. Our track record gives us tremendous confidence in achieving our net zero goal by or before 2025, and we highlight the credible path we will take to get there on Slide 15 of our deck.

第三，我們在整個能源行業擁有最好的 ESG 證書，這得到了我們最近發布的 2021 ESG 報告中所強調的進展的支持。如我們甲板上的幻燈片 14 所示，我們已將我們的範圍 1 和範圍 2 溫室氣體排放量絕對降低了 36%，並在短短 3 年內將我們的甲烷強度降低了相似的數量。我們的業績記錄讓我們對在 2025 年或之前實現淨零目標充滿信心，我們在幻燈片 15 上強調了我們將採取的可靠路徑。

In summary, we have what the world needs: a leading inventory of low-cost, low emissions natural gas with the balance sheet and scale to support long-term development. These characteristics position EQT at the tip of the spear to meet the growing natural gas needs of both domestic and international end users via LNG. As highlighted in our last call, we continue to have discussions with LNG end users across various geographies. As a reminder, our firm transportation portfolio delivers approximately 1 Bcf per day of production to the Gulf Coast, and we are looking at various paths to unlock LNG opportunities along the East Coast.

總之，我們擁有世界需要的東西：領先的低成本、低排放天然氣庫存，其資產負債表和規模可支持長期發展。這些特點使 EQT 在通過 LNG 滿足國內和國際終端用戶日益增長的天然氣需求方面處於領先地位。正如我們在上次電話會議中強調的那樣，我們繼續與不同地區的液化天然氣最終用戶進行討論。提醒一下，我們公司的運輸組合每天向墨西哥灣沿岸提供大約 1 Bcf 的產量，我們正在尋找各種途徑來釋放東海岸的液化天然氣機會。

Turning to second quarter results. We executed on the midpoint of our production guidance as we were able to ameliorate the logistical issues that slowed down frac times in Q1. As shown on Slide 13 of our deck, pumping hours per frac crew during the quarter increased by 25% sequentially and were up 7% year-over-year despite a significantly tighter oilfield service backdrop. We tip our hats to wear operations teams here as they have enabled continued efficient execution of our combo-development strategy even in the face of a challenging operating environment.

轉向第二季度的結果。我們在生產指導的中點執行，因為我們能夠改善第一季度減慢壓裂時間的後勤問題。如我們甲板上的幻燈片 13 所示，儘管油田服務背景明顯收緊，但本季度每個壓裂人員的抽水小時數環比增長 25%，同比增長 7%。我們在這裡向運營團隊致敬，因為即使面對充滿挑戰的運營環境，他們也能夠持續有效地執行我們的組合開發戰略。

We continue to make progress on the evolution of our new completion design with several key projects successfully executed in Q2 and several more planned for Q3 and Q4. While we are still in various phases of assessing our science work, recent indications give us incremental confidence in the productivity uplift associated with our new design, and we plan to make a decision in 2023 as to broader implementation across our asset base. As a reminder, full implementation of this new design would be expected to both reduce annual long-term well count and capital needed to produce the same level of volumes.

我們繼續在新完井設計的發展上取得進展，在第二季度成功執行了幾個關鍵項目，並在第三季度和第四季度計劃了更多項目。雖然我們仍處於評估我們科學工作的不同階段，但最近的跡象讓我們對與我們的新設計相關的生產力提升越來越有信心，我們計劃在 2023 年做出決定，在我們的資產基礎上更廣泛地實施。提醒一下，這種新設計的全面實施預計將減少年度長期井數和生產相同數量水平所需的資本。

Turning to capital returns. As shown on Slide 9 of our investor deck, we are augmenting the framework we originally laid out to the market last December. First, we recently raised our base annualized dividend by 20% from $0.50 to $0.60 per share, which is a sign of the growing confidence we have in the sustainability of our business and longer-term natural gas prices. We believe a strong and growing base dividend is one of the best read-throughs to the long-term value proposition of an organization, and this adjustment reflects exactly that. We plan to continue reassessing our base dividend at least annually and see material room for long-term sustainable growth.

轉向資本回報。如我們的投資者套牌幻燈片 9 所示，我們正在擴大我們去年 12 月最初向市場推出的框架。首先，我們最近將基本年化股息從每股 0.50 美元提高了 20% 至 0.60 美元，這表明我們對業務的可持續性和長期天然氣價格越來越有信心。我們認為，強勁且不斷增長的基本股息是對組織長期價值主張的最佳解讀之一，而這種調整恰恰反映了這一點。我們計劃至少每年重新評估我們的基本股息，並看到長期可持續增長的巨大空間。

Second, we are increasing our debt reduction target by $1 billion to $2.5 billion by year-end '23. While we had planned incremental debt retirement beyond 2023, given our long-term leverage goal of 1x to 1.5x, we are taking the opportunity amid robust commodity prices to accelerate delevering and unequivocally fortifying our balance sheet. The recent rise of broader interest rates has created a unique opportunity as our bond prices have declined despite our strengthening underlying credit quality. Taking this action ensures long-term business sustainability, drives asset value to our equity holders and gives us significant flexibility to invest through our cycles. We are keenly focused on deploying capital to the best risk-adjusted return opportunities available to us and a pristine balance sheet is a key enabler for us to compound value for our shareholders over time.

其次，到 23 年底，我們將減債目標提高 10 億美元，達到 25 億美元。雖然我們計劃在 2023 年之後逐步償還債務，但鑑於我們 1 倍至 1.5 倍的長期槓桿目標，我們正在趁大宗商品價格強勁的情況下加速去槓桿並明確強化我們的資產負債表。儘管我們的基本信用質量有所增強，但近期更廣泛的利率上升創造了一個獨特的機會，因為我們的債券價格下跌。採取這一行動可確保業務的長期可持續性，為我們的股權持有人增加資產價值，並為我們在整個週期內進行投資提供了極大的靈活性。我們非常專注於將資本部署到我們可用的最佳風險調整回報機會，而原始的資產負債表是我們隨著時間的推移為股東創造複合價值的關鍵推動力。

On share repurchases, recall, we rolled out our $1 billion authorization last December, noting we would be opportunistic with deployment. After aggressively repurchasing $230 million of stock in Q1 at an average cost of $23 per share, our stock more than doubled in value at certain points during the quarter. At the same time, we saw some early warning signs of recessionary risk, and as such, we temporarily tapped the brakes on our buyback, highlighting that we will remain disciplined on all forms of capital deployment and firmly focused on earning the best risk-adjusted return for our shareholders. As the stock pulled back toward the end of Q2, we started opportunistically retiring our convertible notes, which are trading virtually in parity with our common shares.

回想一下，在股票回購方面，我們在去年 12 月推出了 10 億美元的授權，並指出我們將在部署方面投機取巧。在第一季度以每股 23 美元的平均成本積極回購 2.3 億美元的股票後，我們的股票在本季度的某些時候價值翻了一番以上。與此同時，我們看到了一些衰退風險的預警信號，因此，我們暫時踩下了回購的剎車，強調我們將在所有形式的資本部署上保持紀律，並堅定地專注於獲得最佳的風險調整回報我們的股東。隨著股票在第二季度末回落，我們開始機會性地淘汰我們的可轉換票據，這些票據的交易價格幾乎與我們的普通股持平。

With the $213 million we spent repurchasing convertible notes during and subsequent to the end of Q2, we lowered our fully diluted share count by almost 6 million shares at an effective equity price of approximately $37 per share, while simultaneously eliminating a debt obligation and simplifying our balance sheet. In total, our updated framework allocates roughly $4 billion towards shareholder returns by year-end '23 and leaves approximately $3.5 billion of retained free cash flow flexibility on recent strip. With the continued resiliency of longer-dated natural gas prices, we now see approximately $22 billion of cumulative after-tax free cash flow from 2022 through 2027 at current strip. This is up from the prior $17 billion we highlighted last quarter and equates to approximately 140% of our current equity market cap, underscoring the tremendous value opportunity embedded in EQT shares.

憑藉我們在第二季度末及之後用於回購可轉換票據的 2.13 億美元，我們以每股約 37 美元的有效股價將完全稀釋後的股票數量減少了近 600 萬股，同時消除了債務義務並簡化了我們的資產負債表。總的來說，我們更新後的框架在 23 年年底之前為股東回報分配了大約 40 億美元，並在最近的剝離中留下了大約 35 億美元的保留自由現金流靈活性。隨著較長期天然氣價格的持續彈性，我們現在看到當前地帶從 2022 年到 2027 年的累計稅後自由現金流約為 220 億美元。這高於我們上個季度強調的 170 億美元，相當於我們當前股票市值的約 140%，突顯了 EQT 股票蘊含的巨大價值機會。

I'll now turn the call over to Dave.

我現在將把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Toby, and good morning, everyone. I'll briefly summarize our second quarter results before discussing our balance sheet, hedging, basis and guidance updates.

謝謝，托比，大家早上好。在討論我們的資產負債表、對沖、基礎和指導更新之前，我將簡要總結我們的第二季度業績。

Sales volumes for the second quarter were 502 Bcfe, in line with the midpoint of our guidance. As Toby mentioned, we implemented new technologies during the quarter to address the tight trucking market we experienced in the first quarter. This is paying off as we saw a material improvement in completion efficiency on a sequential basis.

第二季度的銷量為 502 Bcfe，符合我們指導的中點。正如托比所提到的，我們在本季度實施了新技術，以解決我們在第一季度經歷的緊張的貨運市場。這是有回報的，因為我們看到了連續完成效率的實質性提高。

Our adjusted operating revenues for the quarter were $1.6 billion or $3.21 per Mcfe, and our total per unit operating costs were $1.37. As a result, our operating margin was $1.84 per Mcfe, about $0.80 or 75% higher than last year on higher volumes and price realizations.

我們本季度調整後的營業收入為 16 億美元或每 Mcfe 3.21 美元，我們的每單位營業總成本為 1.37 美元。結果，我們的營業利潤率為每 Mcfe 1.84 美元，比去年高出約 0.80 美元或 75%，這是由於銷量和價格實現的提高。

Capital expenditures were $376 million, in line with the high end of our guidance range. Adjusted operating cash flow was $915 million and free cash flow was $543 million, bringing our total year-to-date free cash flow to more than $1.1 billion. Our capital efficiency for the quarter came in at $0.75 per Mcfe, which was up sequentially due to greater spending on science associated with our new completion design and continued inflationary pressure.

資本支出為 3.76 億美元，符合我們指導範圍的高端。調整後的經營現金流為 9.15 億美元，自由現金流為 5.43 億美元，使我們年初至今的總自由現金流超過 11 億美元。我們本季度的資本效率為每 Mcfe 0.75 美元，由於與我們新的完井設計相關的科學支出增加和持續的通脹壓力，該數字環比上升。

Turning to the balance sheet. Recall, we achieved investment-grade with credit ratings from Fitch and S&P earlier this year, underscoring the material progress we made in creating a more sustainable company for our stakeholders. As Toby mentioned, we are taking even more action to bull-proof our balance sheet through all parts of the commodity cycle by raising our year-end '23 debt reduction target by $1 billion to $2.5 billion. This will reduce our gross debt to approximately $3 billion and accelerate achieving our long-term leverage target of 1x to 1.5x using a $2.75 gas price.

轉向資產負債表。回想一下，今年早些時候，我們獲得了惠譽和標準普爾的投資級信用評級，突顯了我們在為利益相關者創建一家更可持續的公司方面取得的實質性進展。正如托比所提到的，我們正在採取更多行動，通過將我們的 23 年年底減債目標提高 10 億美元至 25 億美元，在大宗商品週期的各個部分證明我們的資產負債表。這將使我們的總債務減少到大約 30 億美元，並以 2.75 美元的汽油價格加速實現我們 1 倍至 1.5 倍的長期槓桿目標。

We are not wasting any time executing our goals as we deployed approximately $390 million over the past several weeks, including repurchasing approximately $175 million of senior notes and $213 million of convertible note principal and premiums. We note that the retirement of convertible notes executed to date has lowered our fully diluted share count by approximately 6 million shares while also simplifying our balance sheet. At the end of the second quarter, our trailing 12-month net leverage stood at 1.6x, down 0.3 turns from the prior quarter.

我們沒有浪費任何時間來執行我們的目標，因為我們在過去幾週部署了大約 3.9 億美元，包括回購了大約 1.75 億美元的優先票據和 2.13 億美元的可轉換票據本金和溢價。我們注意到，迄今為止執行的可轉換票據的退役使我們完全稀釋的股份數量減少了約 600 萬股，同時也簡化了我們的資產負債表。在第二季度末，我們過去 12 個月的淨槓桿率為 1.6 倍，比上一季度下降 0.3 倍。

Note, our net debt at quarter end reflects the impact of approximately $690 million of working capital usage during the quarter, the bulk of which should reverse in the second half of the year. At recent strip pricing, we forecast our year-end 2022 and 2023 net leverage to be approximately 1x and -0.1x respectively, which contemplates executing the remainder of our buyback authorization and accounts for a 20% dividend increase.

請注意，我們在季度末的淨債務反映了本季度約 6.9 億美元營運資金使用的影響，其中大部分將在下半年逆轉。在最近的剝離定價中，我們預計我們 2022 年和 2023 年年底的淨槓桿率分別約為 1 倍和 -0.1 倍，這考慮執行我們剩餘的回購授權並佔 20% 的股息增長。

We ended the quarter with approximately $2.2 billion of liquidity, and we recently renewed our $2.5 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a 5-year maturity. Two key points to note here. First, we added 2 new banks to our bank syndicate. Second, we were easily able to maintain our credit size while most revolvers have shrunk by approximately 15%, both of which showcase the underlying credit of our business and the strength in our bank relationships. As noted in the SEC filing earlier this month, we exercised our option to receive a cash payment of $196 million from Equitrans Midstream in lieu of a portion of near-term fee relief. We expect to receive proceeds by late 3Q or early 4Q. As shown in Slide 18 of our investor deck, this cash election does not impact the $0.15 per Mcfe long-term gathering rate reduction from today's levels. Also, we still model an MVP start-up in fourth quarter 2023.

我們在本季度末擁有約 22 億美元的流動性，最近我們更新了 25 億美元的 5 年期無擔保循環信貸額度。這裡需要注意兩個關鍵點。首先，我們將 2 家新銀行添加到我們的銀行財團中。其次，我們能夠輕鬆地維持我們的信貸規模，而大多數左輪手槍已經縮水約 15%，這兩者都顯示了我們業務的潛在信貸和我們銀行關係的實力。正如本月早些時候提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所指出的，我們行使了從 Equitrans Midstream 獲得 1.96 億美元現金支付的選擇權，以代替部分近期費用減免。我們預計將在 3 季度末或 4 季度初收到收益。如我們投資者套牌的幻燈片 18 所示，這次現金選舉不會影響從今天的水平降低每 Mcfe 0.15 美元的長期收款率。此外，我們仍然在 2023 年第四季度為 MVP 初創公司建模。

Moving over to hedging. During the quarter, we opportunistically restructured our hedge book for 2023. Specifically, we converted the bulk of our remaining 2Q through 4Q '23 swap positions into costless collars. For the summer, we placed approximately $4 floors and $6.25 ceilings; and in the winter, $7.30 floors with $11 ceilings. The positive market skew at the time enabled us to set $3 of upside with only $1 downside, tying to our plan to provide stakeholders with strong risk-adjusted upside.

轉向對沖。在本季度，我們機會主義地重組了 2023 年的對沖賬簿。具體而言，我們將剩餘的 2Q 至 4Q '23 掉期頭寸的大部分轉換為無成本的套利。夏季，我們放置了大約 4 美元的地板和 6.25 美元的天花板；在冬天，7.30 美元的樓層和 11 美元的天花板。當時的積極市場傾斜使我們能夠設定 3 美元的上行空間，而只有 1 美元的下行空間，這與我們為利益相關者提供強大的風險調整後上行空間的計劃掛鉤。

Separately, as we've seen signposts of global economic slowdown, we thought it would be prudent to add floors to our 2023 hedge book, buying approximately $4.55 puts with premiums that we were able to defer into 2023. With these actions, we are now approximately 50% hedged on our 2023 volumes, predominantly with wide collars and puts. As an illustration of the resiliency of our forward outlook, if NYMEX retraced to approximately $3 per MMBtu in 2023, we would still expect to generate approximately $1.6 billion of free cash flow next year or a 10% free cash flow yield. Conversely, if natural gas averaged $7 per MMBtu level, we would expect to generate almost $6 billion of free cash flow in 2023 or nearly a 40% free cash flow yield.

另外，由於我們已經看到全球經濟放緩的跡象，我們認為在我們的 2023 年對沖賬簿中增加下限是謹慎的做法，買入大約 4.55 美元的看跌期權，溢價我們能夠推遲到 2023 年。通過這些行動，我們現在大約 50% 對沖了我們 2023 年的交易量，主要是寬領和看跌期權。作為我們前瞻性前景彈性的例證，如果 NYMEX 在 2023 年回撤至每 MMBtu 約 3 美元，我們仍預計明年將產生約 16 億美元的自由現金流或 10% 的自由現金流收益率。相反，如果天然氣平均為每 MMBtu 7 美元，我們預計到 2023 年將產生近 60 億美元的自由現金流或近 40% 的自由現金流收益率。

Now turning to LNG. As Toby mentioned, we are making progress on our strategy and see an increasingly bullish setup for global natural gas fundamentals on a multi-decade basis. We expect global natural gas demand outside of North America to grow from approximately 285 Bcf per day today to 375 Bcf per day by 2050. This means supply growth equivalent to doubling the entire U.S. natural gas production base is necessary to balance the global market in less than 30 years. There is a growing recognition both domestically and abroad that we are unlikely to meet this demand without significant incremental production from Appalachia, which is home to the longest runway of low breakeven, low carbon intensive natural gas inventory in the world.

現在轉向液化天然氣。正如托比所提到的，我們的戰略正在取得進展，並且看到全球天然氣基本面在數十年的基礎上越來越看漲。我們預計，到 2050 年，北美以外的全球天然氣需求將從今天的每天約 285 Bcf 增長到每天 375 Bcf。這意味著供應增長相當於整個美國天然氣生產基地的兩倍，才能在更短的時間內平衡全球市場。超過30年。國內外越來越多的人認識到，如果阿巴拉契亞沒有顯著增加產量，我們就不可能滿足這一需求，阿巴拉契亞是世界上最長的低盈虧平衡、低碳密集型天然氣庫存的所在地。

As noted in our unleash U.S. LNG deck, resource quality and longevity dictate that 70% of incremental U.S. LNG export growth will ultimately need to come from Appalachia. Equity is currently in various stages of discussion for supply agreements covering approximately 1 Bcf per day of FT capacity to the Gulf Coast. We are looking at ways to catalyze East Coast LNG, which could have meaningful ramifications to our current Appalachian production long-term.

正如我們在釋放美國液化天然氣甲板中所指出的那樣，資源質量和壽命決定了美國液化天然氣出口增量的 70% 最終將需要來自阿巴拉契亞。 Equity 目前正處於不同階段的供應協議討論階段，該協議涵蓋每天向墨西哥灣沿岸提供約 1 Bcf 的 FT 容量。我們正在尋找催化東海岸液化天然氣的方法，這可能對我們目前的阿巴拉契亞生產長期產生有意義的影響。

Turning over to guidance. As we noted last quarter, we saw pricing pressures broaden across all service lines. We experienced some further inflationary impact since our first quarter call, and as such, we are raising our 2022 CapEx guidance range to $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion, the midpoint of which is in line with the high end of our prior guidance. As highlighted in Slide 13 of our slide deck, our contracting strategy provides significant risk mitigation on a go-forward basis. The most notable is our long-term sand supply agreement and frac crew contracts we extended to 2024 and 2025.

轉向指導。正如我們上個季度所指出的，我們看到所有服務線的定價壓力都在擴大。自第一季度電話會議以來，我們經歷了一些進一步的通脹影響，因此，我們將 2022 年資本支出指導範圍提高到 14 億美元至 15 億美元，其中點與我們之前指導的高端一致。正如我們幻燈片的幻燈片 13 中所強調的那樣，我們的承包戰略在向前推進的基礎上提供了顯著的風險緩解。最值得注意的是我們延長至 2024 年和 2025 年的長期沙子供應協議和壓裂人員合同。

We are reiterating our 2022 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance ranges but see bias towards the upper end. Note that our guidance reflects strip pricing as of July '22. Given a structurally superior hedge position next year, our 2023 free cash flow should expand by approximately 100% year-over-year, providing differentiated free cash flow per share growth even with flat production volumes. Again, using strip pricing, we see approximately $22 billion of cumulative free cash flow through 2027, which is net of all expected cash taxes and hedge premiums.

我們正在重申我們的 2022 年 EBITDA 和自由現金流指導範圍，但看到偏向高端。請注意，我們的指導反映了截至 22 年 7 月的帶鋼定價。鑑於明年結構上優越的對沖頭寸，我們 2023 年的自由現金流應同比增長約 100%，即使產量持平，每股自由現金流也將呈現差異化增長。同樣，使用剝離定價，我們看到到 2027 年的累計自由現金流約為 220 億美元，這是扣除所有預期現金稅和對沖溢價的淨額。

I'll now turn it back over to Toby for some concluding remarks.

我現在將把它交給托比做一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Dave. To conclude today's prepared remarks, I want to reiterate a few key points. One, Americans are voicing clear support for more domestic natural gas, which is critical to reducing extreme energy costs, increasing America's energy independence and tackling global climate change by replacing international coal.

謝謝，戴夫。在結束今天準備好的發言之前，我想重申幾個要點。第一，美國人明確表示支持更多的國內天然氣，這對於降低極端能源成本、提高美國的能源獨立性以及通過替代國際煤炭來應對全球氣候變化至關重要。

Two, our depth and quality of inventory, investment-grade balance sheet in our peer-leading ESG credentials differentiate EQT as a leading producer on a global scale, and we stand ready to meet the long-term call on natural gas demand.

第二，我們的庫存深度和質量、我們同行領先的 ESG 證書中的投資級資產負債表使 EQT 成為全球領先的生產商，我們隨時準備滿足對天然氣需求的長期需求。

Three, we are outperforming our emissions reduction targets and have a clear and credible path to net zero by 2025, and which can be achieved with current technologies and at a very affordable price tag.

第三，我們正在超越我們的減排目標，並在 2025 年之前有一條明確而可靠的實現淨零排放的道路，這可以通過現有技術以非常實惠的價格實現。

And finally, our updated capital returns framework shows a resounding commitment to our shareholders with $4 billion earmarked for year-end 2023 for debt reduction, share buyback and our increased base dividend, with plenty of room for upside given we expect to generate $22 billion of cumulative free cash flow through 2027.

最後，我們更新的資本回報框架向我們的股東展示了一個響亮的承諾，在 2023 年底撥出 40 億美元用於減債、股票回購和增加基本股息，鑑於我們預計將產生 220 億美元的到 2027 年的累計自由現金流。

I'd now like to open the call to questions.

我現在想打開提問電話。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

Toby, you've announced some incremental action on shareholder return, the $1 billion in incremental debt reduction, plus the dividend increase. My question is regarding when do you think the company would provide more clarity around the retained flexibility category? On your updated guide, $6.4 billion of free cash flow if the strip holds over the next quarters. If you back out debt reduction and the dividend, you have just under $4.4 billion of unaccounted for free cash flow. So just some thoughts on that and perhaps the pace of buyback activity given -- under your current authorization?

托比，你宣布了一些關於股東回報的增量行動，10 億美元的增量債務減少，以及股息增加。我的問題是，您認為公司何時會在保留的靈活性類別方面提供更明確的說明？在您更新的指南中，如果該地帶在接下來的幾個季度保持不變，將有 64 億美元的自由現金流。如果您取消債務減免和股息，您將有不到 44 億美元的未計入自由現金流。那麼，在您目前的授權下，只是對此的一些想法，也許是回購活動的步伐？

Sure, Arun. So as it relates to our capital allocation framework, I think what we've done is set out authorizations that we know we can execute, but as you mentioned, we do have flexibility to go above there. I think the flexibility is important because we want to make sure that we are matching the allocation decisions with the environment that we're in. I think there's a lot of clarity on the debt retirement goals that we've stated. But to put a little bit more color on our buyback approach, our buyback approach is opportunistic, and we believe that's appropriate given the current volatility that we see in this world. But understand that that's tough to model, the buyback pace that we have.

當然，阿倫。因此，由於它與我們的資本分配框架有關，我認為我們所做的是製定了我們知道我們可以執行的授權，但正如你所提到的，我們確實有超越那裡的靈活性。我認為靈活性很重要，因為我們希望確保分配決策與我們所處的環境相匹配。我認為我們已經聲明的債務退休目標非常明確。但是，為了給我們的回購方法增添一點色彩，我們的回購方法是機會主義的，鑑於我們在這個世界上看到的當前波動性，我們認為這是合適的。但要明白，我們的回購速度很難建模。

So I'd ask you to look at what we've done in the past. In Q1, we've taken advantage of our buyback authorization and bought back over $240 million worth of stock, retiring about 9.9 million shares. In Q2, we repurchased about $213 million of convertible notes, and that has the impact of retiring around 5.7 million shares. So over the past 2 quarters, we've retired over $400 million of shares, retiring about 15 million shares at an average price of around $31 per share. I think the approach is providing some pretty good results. But look at what we can do in the future, and we have the opportunity to continue that pace. We're obviously stepping into a more robust free cash flow generation phase of this business, and I think the opportunity for us to do more is appropriate.

所以我想請你看看我們過去做了什麼。在第一季度，我們利用了我們的回購授權，回購了價值超過 2.4 億美元的股票，退出了大約 990 萬股。在第二季度，我們回購了約 2.13 億美元的可轉換票據，這對約 570 萬股股票產生了影響。因此，在過去的兩個季度中，我們已經退市了超過 4 億美元的股票，退市了大約 1500 萬股，平均價格約為每股 31 美元。我認為這種方法提供了一些非常好的結果。但是看看我們未來可以做什麼，我們有機會繼續這個步伐。我們顯然正在進入該業務更強勁的自由現金流生成階段，我認為我們有機會做更多的事情是合適的。

Fair enough. Perhaps for David. David, EQT repositioned your hedge portfolio. Getting some question on the impact to your free cash flow outlook. I know the repositioning started in the fourth quarter of this year. Can you give us a sense, if we kind of put in strip in the model, what kind of impact that had to cash flows from those moves? And was there any cost associated with this repositioning activity?

很公平。也許對大衛來說。 David，EQT 重新定位了您的對沖投資組合。就對您的自由現金流前景的影響提出一些問題。我知道重新定位是從今年第四季度開始的。你能給我們一個感覺，如果我們在模型中加入條帶，這些舉措會對現金流產生什麼樣的影響？這種重新定位活動是否有任何成本？

Yes. So I'll answer that question. Yes, no cost. Everything was done at market, and so no cost to us. So if you step back and just give you high levels, right now, with our hedges in place, we basically have a $2.92 floor and we have approximately $4.95 ceiling. And so that's the balance of -- and we're about 45% -- I'm sorry, about 50% floors and we're about 45% ceiling. So that provides the risk-adjusted benefit. If the floors were reached, we'd be about $1.5 billion. If the ceiling would be reached or breached, it would be about almost $4 billion. So that just gives you a sense of range of outcome there.

是的。所以我會回答這個問題。是的，不花錢。一切都是在市場上完成的，因此我們無需支付任何費用。因此，如果你退後一步，只給你高水平，現在，在我們對沖到位的情況下，我們基本上有 2.92 美元的下限，我們有大約 4.95 美元的上限。這就是平衡——我們大約是 45%——對不起，大約是 50% 的樓層，我們大約是 45% 的天花板。因此，這提供了風險調整後的收益。如果達到最低限度，我們將達到 15 億美元。如果達到或突破上限，將接近 40 億美元。因此，這只會讓您對那裡的結果範圍有所了解。

With the repositioning, okay, we basically converted our swaps, which we'll call it about 10% of our hedge position was converted into costless collars. And as I said earlier on the prepared comments, the [SKU] was about $3 up and $1 down. And if you look at the value today, that position that we did is about $110 million into the money. And if we hit the ceilings of that -- of what we just did, we would create about $450 million of upside on free cash flow. So that gives you a sense of magnitude of what we did and allows investors to understand how we have -- we think about the risk-adjusted upside.

通過重新定位，好吧，我們基本上轉換了我們的掉期，我們稱之為大約 10% 的對沖頭寸轉換為無成本的項圈。正如我之前在準備好的評論中所說，[SKU] 大約 3 美元上漲和 1 美元下跌。如果你看看今天的價值，我們所做的那個頭寸大約是 1.1 億美元。如果我們達到了我們剛剛所做的上限，我們將在自由現金流上創造約 4.5 億美元的上行空間。因此，這讓您了解我們所做的事情的重要性，並讓投資者了解我們是如何擁有的——我們考慮風險調整後的上行空間。

The next question is from the line of Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

My first question was on the well performance. Any -- from the next-generation completions, any early read through there? And then if it is successful, how would that change Slide #12? How much of that inventory would you be able to add with the sub-250 breakeven?

我的第一個問題是關於良好的表現。任何——來自下一代的完成，任何早期的通讀？如果它成功了，這將如何改變幻燈片 #12？在低於 250 的盈虧平衡點下，您可以增加多少庫存？

So it's early on our science. We are encouraged, but I will say that the wells are still in flat time in our choke management program. So we'll get a better read once these wells enter closer towards the decline periods of their lives. And so that's why we're sort of refraining from being -- but we are leaning positive right now.

所以這對我們的科學來說還很早。我們很受鼓舞，但我要說的是，在我們的扼流圈管理計劃中，這些井仍處於平穩狀態。因此，一旦這些油井接近其生命的衰退期，我們就會得到更好的解讀。所以這就是為什麼我們有點克制——但我們現在傾向於積極。

For Slide 12, the couple of impacts on the enhanced well design. One, it's obviously going to improve the economics of the inventory that we put there. So you'll see those sticks shift down the cost curve, which would be good. That will also pull some more what we consider noncore and give that a shot of lowering their breakevens. But two, this will also have the impact of extending our inventory life because if this hits, this will allow us to reduce the number of wells that we need to drill each year to maintain volumes. So that will extend our inventory life past the 18 years of core inventory. So those are really the 2 dynamics that are at play right now.

對於幻燈片 12，對增強井設計的幾個影響。一，它顯然會改善我們放在那裡的庫存的經濟性。所以你會看到那些棒子沿著成本曲線向下移動，這很好。這也將拉動更多我們認為的非核心產品，並降低其盈虧平衡點。但是第二，這也會對延長我們的庫存壽命產生影響，因為如果這種情況發生，這將使我們能夠減少每年為維持產量而需要鑽井的數量。因此，這將使我們的庫存壽命超過 18 年的核心庫存。因此，這確實是目前正在發揮作用的兩種動力。

That's helpful. And maybe next question is on the LNG strategy. You mentioned that you are in discussion with a lot of LNG customers. How are the discussions progressing? And what are the key points which the customers are looking for more clarity on?

這很有幫助。也許下一個問題是關於液化天然氣戰略的。您提到您正在與很多液化天然氣客戶進行討論。討論進展如何？客戶希望更清楚地了解哪些關鍵點？

Yes. So I would just say, right now, we probably have an opportunity to lock in contracts for -- with probably about 3 or 4 different facilities. And so the question for us is duration and which we want to do. If we want international markets, do we -- what toll rates are we willing to accept. And then we're trying to work on with the end markets specifically, a [college] structure where we give ourselves some protection on the downside but allow us to get that risk-adjusted upside. So those are the things that we're looking at right now. And I'd just say there's a great demand from a producer standpoint. These facilities need gas supply. And so it gives us the option right now to figure out who we want to use and who we want to go through.

是的。所以我只想說，現在，我們可能有機會鎖定合同 - 可能有大約 3 或 4 個不同的設施。所以我們的問題是持續時間以及我們想要做什麼。如果我們想要國際市場，我們願意接受什麼樣的通行費。然後我們正在嘗試專門與終端市場合作，這是一種[學院]結構，我們在這種結構中為自己提供一些下行保護，但允許我們獲得風險調整後的上行空間。所以這些就是我們現在正在研究的事情。我只想說，從製作人的角度來看，需求很大。這些設施需要供氣。所以它讓我們現在可以選擇找出我們想要使用的人以及我們想要通過的人。

The next question is from the line of Neal Dingmann with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Neal Dingmann 與 Truist 的對話。

Toby, could you talk a little bit about just the availability of capacity going forward? And if there's -- it seems like you'll have some availability going forward. Your thoughts on if there is -- your thoughts on wanting to grow?

托比，你能談談未來產能的可用性嗎？如果有 - 看起來你會有一些可用性。您對是否存在的想法-您對想要成長的想法？

Production capacity, yes, Neal. Pipeline capacity in Appalachia, we've finally reached the limit of the midstream takeaway capacity in Appalachia. And as long as that's the case, we are going to remain disciplined in maintenance production mode. We put a slide in our deck that sort of shows the dynamics of what's taking place on Slide 29. One of the questions we get a lot is people have said, we say, well, why aren't we able to add more supply. We've got the biggest natural gas field in the world, and we cannot use that to help lower energy prices for Americans. Why is that? And we say, well, because we don't have pipelines. They've been blocked, canceled and opposed over the last 10 years. And people say, well, we've been blocking pipelines for the last 10 years, and we've been able to experience low energy prices.

生產能力，是的，尼爾。阿巴拉契亞的管道容量，我們終於達到了阿巴拉契亞中游外賣能力的極限。只要是這樣，我們將在維護生產模式中保持紀律。我們在幻燈片中放了一張幻燈片，顯示幻燈片 29 上正在發生的動態。我們得到的很多問題之一是人們說，我們說，為什麼我們不能增加更多的供應。我們擁有世界上最大的天然氣田，我們不能用它來幫助降低美國人的能源價格。這是為什麼？我們說，好吧，因為我們沒有管道。在過去的 10 年裡，它們一直被阻止、取消和反對。人們說，好吧，過去 10 年我們一直在阻塞管道，我們已經能夠體驗到低能源價格。

Well, the reality is we've always had excess pipeline takeaway capacity out of this basin during those times when those pipelines were canceled. Those would have added to that capacity. We've hit the wall now. And that's why EQT is going to continue to remain disciplined. And it's an opportunity for this country to recognize this and say that -- and get more pipeline LNG infrastructure built in this country so we can address the growing demand for natural gas.

好吧，現實情況是，在這些管道被取消的那段時間裡，我們總是有多餘的管道外賣能力從這個盆地流出。那些會增加這種能力。我們現在已經碰壁了。這就是 EQT 將繼續保持自律的原因。這是一個讓這個國家認識到這一點並說出來的機會——並在這個國家建造更多的管道液化天然氣基礎設施，這樣我們就可以解決對天然氣不斷增長的需求。

Yes. It's great to hear. And then (inaudible) tight capacity but the other. Then my thought is, again, given where gas prices are, obviously, returns are fantastic. Are you -- do you weigh like when you and Dave were looking at it, is there -- I guess sort of a 2-part question, are there opportunities to roll in, I don't know, either bolt-ons or some bigger deals? And if so, is it just simply comparing that to -- you have [ample acreage], no question, being the largest gas player. Is it just simply a comparison of what the deal price looks like maybe on PDPs or however you want to value them versus what's your organic growth to be?

是的。很高興聽到。然後（聽不清）緊縮容量，但另一個。然後我的想法是，同樣，考慮到汽油價格在哪裡，顯然，回報是驚人的。你是否——你和戴夫看它時的體重一樣嗎？我想這是一個由兩部分組成的問題，是否有機會加入，我不知道，要么是螺栓固定的，要么是一些更大的交易？如果是這樣，是否只是簡單地將其與 - 毫無疑問，您擁有[充足的種植面積]，是最大的天然氣供應商。它只是簡單地比較交易價格可能在 PDP 上的樣子，還是您想要評估它們與您的有機增長是什麼？

Yes, Neal. So I think anything -- any asset you look at, I think you want to make sure you're getting quality. So we definitely compare asset quality versus ours. I think you look at Alta, the cost structure that asset base did, it lowered our cost structure of this company, lowered our breakevens by over $0.05. So that's one consideration. But I mean, at the end of the day, everything we do on M&A is going to be. It's got to be more accretive than buying back our stock, and that's the ultimate decision.

是的，尼爾。所以我認為任何東西——你看到的任何資產，我認為你想確保你得到質量。因此，我們肯定會將資產質量與我們的進行比較。我想你看看 Alta，資產基礎所做的成本結構，它降低了我們這家公司的成本結構，使我們的盈虧平衡點降低了 0.05 美元以上。所以這是一個考慮因素。但我的意思是，歸根結底，我們在併購方面所做的一切都會成為現實。它必須比回購我們的股票更具增值性，這是最終的決定。

Yes. You all have been very disciplined and it's great to see that. Great quarter.

是的。你們都非常自律，很高興看到這一點。很棒的季度。

The next question is from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Scott Hanold。

I have a question just to delve into a little bit more into the LNG discussions as well as that potential free cash flow use that's not allocated at this point. But when you step back and look at it, obviously, there's been some larger peers that have gone out and made an announcement of a potential agreement to invest in a Gulf Coast LNG facility. Where do you stand on using some of that free cash flow potentially to invest in the facility? And are you really looking at -- if so, is that more of an East Coast initiative that you think would make more sense for you all?

我有一個問題只是想深入探討一下液化天然氣的討論以及目前尚未分配的潛在自由現金流使用。但是，當您退後一步看一看，顯然有一些更大的同行已經走出去並宣布了一項潛在的協議，以投資墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣設施。您對利用部分自由現金流投資該設施有何立場？你真的在看——如果是這樣，那是不是你認為對你們所有人更有意義的東海岸倡議？

Yes. So I sort of segregate the LNG into 2 categories, the Gulf Coast and the East Coast. From a Gulf Coast perspective, it's really more about looking at the best ways we can commit our supply projects. I don't think that the capital is needed down there to get projects off the ground. On East Coast, for us, I think there's an opportunity for us to help identify projects and work with developers to get these projects off the ground. So I mean, we're doing some feasibility work and some high-level assessments of what some of those projects would look like, but not a significant amount of dollars being thought up to apply to East Coast LNG. Obviously, for us, why spend dollars.

是的。所以我將液化天然氣分為兩類，墨西哥灣沿岸和東海岸。從墨西哥灣沿岸的角度來看，實際上更多的是尋找我們可以提交供應項目的最佳方式。我不認為那裡需要資金來啟動項目。在東海岸，對我們來說，我認為我們有機會幫助確定項目並與開發商合作以使這些項目落地。所以我的意思是，我們正在做一些可行性工作，並對其中一些項目的外觀進行一些高級別的評估，但並沒有考慮將大量資金用於東海岸液化天然氣。顯然，對我們來說，為什麼要花錢。

Even on the feasibility side, I think East Coast LNG just could be so incredibly impactful to EQT and Appalachia, creating a demand source next to where we operate should help strengthen basis that would have an impact, not just on the volumes that we're able to supply to those facilities, but would also impact the amount of gas that we sell in basin. So there's just a lot of reasons why there's reasons for us to really want to push to get East Coast LNG and make that great idea a reality.

即使在可行性方面，我認為東海岸液化天然氣可能對 EQT 和阿巴拉契亞產生如此難以置信的影響，在我們運營的地方附近創造一個需求源應該有助於加強會產生影響的基礎，而不僅僅是我們的數量能夠向這些設施供應，但也會影響我們在盆地銷售的天然氣量。因此，我們有很多理由真正想要推動獲得東海岸液化天然氣並使這個好主意成為現實。

That's very good to hear. And then my follow-up question is you all talked about going after the converts versus directly targeting, I guess, the outstanding equity on your buyback program. Could you give us a little high-level view on -- is that -- I think there are a lot of benefits to that, but can you just walk us through of like -- is there -- at what point does it make sense to target the equity versus the converts? Or do you feel all -- is there somewhat of an indifference to doing that?

很好聽。然後我的後續問題是你們都談到了追求轉換而不是直接瞄準，我猜，你的回購計劃中的優秀股權。你能否給我們一些高層次的看法——是嗎——我認為這樣做有很多好處，但是你能不能簡單地告訴我們——有沒有——在什麼時候有意義以股權與轉換為目標？或者你覺得一切 - 這樣做是不是有點冷漠？

Yes. So it really depends upon where the stock is and where the convert is. So right now, the convert is way in the money, and so it trades very much like the equity. There is a little bit of premium for -- we'll call it for future dividends and things like that you have to account for. But effectively, it now, it's very much akin to equity. But there is a percentage that you would strive to the debt side and principle. So I think just know we have basically 2 tools in place, right? So we have the -- we'll call it the direct way where we have our $1 billion buyback, and then we have the indirect way, which gets captured really in the $2.5 billion of debt principal that we have authorized to retire. So we have really 2 ways that gives us the flexibility to attack the equity. And where there's disconnects or things, we can try to play that arbitrage.

是的。所以這真的取決於股票在哪里以及轉換在哪裡。所以現在，轉換的方式很賺錢，所以它的交易非常像股票。有一點溢價-我們將其稱為未來的股息以及您必須考慮的事情。但實際上，它現在非常類似於股權。但是有一個百分比你會努力在債務方面和原則上。所以我想只要知道我們基本上有兩個工具，對吧？所以我們有 - 我們稱之為直接方式，我們有 10 億美元的回購，然後我們有間接方式，它實際上被我們授權退休的 25 億美元債務本金所捕獲。所以我們真的有兩種方法可以讓我們靈活地攻擊贏率。在有脫節或事情的地方，我們可以嘗試套利。

The next question is from the man John Abbott with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Abbott。

Toby, the first question is for you. It's on inventory in West Virginia. During the first quarter call, you had mentioned the potential benefits of West Virginia signing in the pooling and [unitization] law. When you look at those 1,800 locations, the distribution, does that take into account those potential benefits? And have you had the time to assess what the benefits are to your inventory?

托比，第一個問題是給你的。它在西弗吉尼亞州的庫存中。在第一季度的電話會議中，您提到了西弗吉尼亞州簽署匯集和 [聯合] 法的潛在好處。當您查看這 1,800 個地點和分佈時，是否考慮到了這些潛在的好處？您是否有時間評估對您的庫存有什麼好處？

Yes. Great question. So there was some legislation that was passed recently in West Virginia that basically allows modern unitization to take place. This is a tool that is available to operators now that really helps address if there's unknown heirs, which is something that happens in West Virginia a lot. But if -- the majority of landowners have signed up an ability to unitize. As far as the way we view this is really -- this is more of a backup plan in case we run to some of those roadblocks. We have not had to use this legislation and -- but it's nice to know it has there -- it's there. So ultimately, the way this reflects in our inventory is just a higher level of confidence that the sticks that we put on the map we're going to be able to develop because we've got modern legislation in place that will facilitate that.

是的。好問題。因此，最近在西弗吉尼亞州通過了一些立法，基本上允許進行現代單元化。這是一個現在可供運營商使用的工具，如果有未知的繼承人，它確實有助於解決，這在西弗吉尼亞州經常發生。但是，如果 - 大多數土地所有者已經簽署了聯合起來的能力。就我們的看法而言，這實際上是一個備用計劃，以防我們遇到一些障礙。我們不必使用這項立法，而且——但很高興知道它在那裡——它就在那裡。因此，最終，這反映在我們的庫存中的方式只是對我們放在地圖上的棍子能夠開發的更高水平的信心，因為我們已經制定了現代立法來促進這一點。

For us, another read-through, we're out advocating for more pipeline infrastructure and the permitting policy reform. I think you look at what we've done in West Virginia, help leading to get that legislation put in place. I'm optimistic, I'm hopeful that we can continue to influence on a national level and help bring common sense, pragmatic permit reform so that we can get these pipelines and LNG facilities built, so we can address the energy crisis that's currently going on in the world.

對我們來說，另一個通讀，我們正在倡導更多的管道基礎設施和許可政策改革。我想你看看我們在西弗吉尼亞州所做的，幫助導致該立法到位。我很樂觀，我希望我們能夠繼續在國家層面產生影響，並幫助帶來常識、務實的許可證改革，以便我們能夠建造這些管道和液化天然氣設施，從而解決目前正在發生的能源危機在世界上。

Appreciate it. And the next question is for you there, David. It's going to be on your cumulative free cash flow outlook and on cash tax. For that 6-year outlook, just curious, does that assume -- does it have an inflation assumption baked in for 2023 already? And then second, on the cash tax, I recognize you would provide more color at some point later during the year. But as you sort of look out to 2027, this is more of a calibration cash tax question, are you more of a 15% cash taxpayer or more of a 20% cash tax payer long-term?

欣賞它。下一個問題是給你的，大衛。這將取決於您的累積自由現金流前景和現金稅。對於那個 6 年的前景，只是好奇，這是假設 - 它是否已經對 2023 年做出了通貨膨脹假設？其次，關於現金稅，我知道你們會在今年晚些時候的某個時候提供更多的顏色。但是，當您展望 2027 年時，這更像是一個校準現金稅問題，您是長期的 15% 現金納稅人還是 20% 現金納稅人？

Yes. So as far as inflation in our '23 numbers, yes, they're in there. And as far as cash taxes, whether 15% or 20%, I think longer-term, it's towards the 20%. But obviously, as we as we consume our NOLs and -- it will trend up over time. I would just say one other factor just that you should be aware of, Pennsylvania just announced a corporate reduction in cash taxes by about 3%. And so that should help on the margin with some cash taxes in the future.

是的。因此，就我們 '23 數字中的通貨膨脹而言，是的，它們就在那裡。至於現金稅，無論是 15% 還是 20%，我認為從長遠來看，它接近 20%。但顯然，當我們消費我們的 NOL 時，它會隨著時間的推移而上升。我只想說另一個你應該知道的因素，賓夕法尼亞州剛剛宣布將企業現金稅降低約 3%。因此，這應該有助於在未來支付一些現金稅。

The next question is from the line of Vin Lovaglio with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vin Lovaglio。

So I really appreciate the vision on LNG projects tend to be longer lead and Appalachia, as you said, is offtake in stream. I'm wondering if you see yourselves as having a role to play in stimulating regional demand growth. And if there's anything that you could say around opportunities on that end, especially on the industrial side.

所以我真的很欣賞液化天然氣項目的願景往往是領先的，正如你所說，阿巴拉契亞正在流產。我想知道您是否認為自己在刺激區域需求增長方面可以發揮作用。如果有什麼關於這方面的機會你可以說的，特別是在工業方面。

Yes. There's an opportunity to increase gas demand locally. I don't think anything has the type of scale that we're talking about with LNG, but there's new technology. I mean natural gas, I think, can be transformed in a low-carbon energy solution like blue hydrogen. So a lot of the new ventures work that we're doing is focused on what is the sustainability of hydrogen and what can we do to help mature that, the confidence in the sustainability of hydrogen. There's also technology that's out there right now that instead of decarbonizing the product before it gets consumed, which is what happened with blue hydrogen, there's also technologies out there that will set the table for carbon capture while the energy is converted into electricity. So there's a lot of new technologies out there, a lot of low-carbon solutions that we're looking at.

是的。有機會增加當地的天然氣需求。我認為沒有任何東西具有我們所說的液化天然氣的規模，但有新技術。我的意思是，我認為天然氣可以轉化為像藍色氫這樣的低碳能源解決方案。因此，我們正在做的許多新企業工作都集中在氫的可持續性上，以及我們可以做些什麼來幫助它成熟，對氫的可持續性充滿信心。現在還有一些技術，而不是在產品被消耗之前對其進行脫碳，這就是藍色氫所發生的事情，還有一些技術可以在能量轉化為電能的同時為碳捕獲奠定基礎。所以有很多新技術，很多我們正在研究的低碳解決方案。

And right now, though, the key thing for us to do as energy providers is understand the true sustainability of these options. What is the actual cost? What's the profitability? What is the actual emissions, full cycle emissions associated with it? And then what -- how big could this be from a scale perspective? So those are sort of the things that we're thinking about as we're understanding these solutions.

但現在，作為能源供應商，我們要做的關鍵是了解這些選擇的真正可持續性。實際成本是多少？盈利能力如何？實際排放量是多少，與之相關的全週期排放量是多少？然後是什麼 - 從規模的角度來看，這有多大？所以這些是我們在理解這些解決方案時正在考慮的事情。

Yes. And I'd just add, as we've gone back to investment grade, we're now being approached for, I'll call, longer-term firm sales contracts to some of the industrial space. So I'd just say stay tuned on that progress.

是的。我只想補充一點，隨著我們回到投資級別，我們現在正在接洽，我會打電話給一些工業領域的長期公司銷售合同。所以我只想說請繼續關注這一進展。

Got it. Great. And I guess flipping over to the cost side. One thing that's really stuck out for us has been tubular pricing. Seems like a supply chain bottleneck, low inventories type of issue. Wondering how that -- if it has affected your planning, if at all, for 2023, compared to a more "normal year".

知道了。偉大的。我猜想轉向成本方面。對我們來說真正突出的一件事是管狀定價。似乎是供應鏈瓶頸，低庫存類型的問題。想知道與更“正常的一年”相比，它是否影響了您的 2023 年計劃（如果有的話）。

Yes. So when we set our budget for '22, we did account for inflation, but you see we did take that up a little bit here this quarter. What's changed between the planning exercise at the end of the year and where we're at today, I think the assumption was that steel was going to be able to rebound in pricing and we get some steel relief in the back half of this year. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine has just put more strain on supply chains when it comes to steel. And so we're seeing those -- we're not seeing the lower prices that we anticipated towards end of the year. And that's what's baked into our plan today and also into '23 as well.

是的。因此，當我們為 22 年設定預算時，我們確實考慮了通貨膨脹，但你看我們確實在本季度稍微考慮了這一點。今年年底的計劃活動和我們今天所處的位置之間發生了什麼變化，我認為鋼鐵價格將能夠反彈，並且我們在今年下半年獲得了一些鋼鐵緩解。不幸的是，在鋼鐵方面，烏克蘭的戰爭給供應鏈帶來了更大的壓力。所以我們看到了這些——我們沒有看到我們在年底時預期的更低的價格。這就是我們今天和 23 年計劃中的內容。

Yes. And I'd just add. So there's obviously the intricacies of tubulars, but then if you look at the steel sector in general, steel prices have come down pretty materially. Metallurgical coal, which is the feedstock into steel, has dropped from $600 a ton down into the $200 and change and then iron ore has come down pretty hard. So you have the makings of steel and tubulars to come down in price. It's just going to have to work its way through the processing side.

是的。我想補充一下。所以顯然管材的複雜性，但如果你看一下整個鋼鐵行業，鋼鐵價格已經大幅下跌。作為鋼鐵原料的冶金煤已從每噸 600 美元跌至 200 美元，然後鐵礦石價格大幅下跌。因此，您可以降低鋼材和管材的價格。它只需要在處理端工作。

The next question is from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

下一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers。

Just wanted to pick up on the comment you just made about blue hydrogen and your research there. I'm just curious if you have any general thoughts on time frame of when you think some technologies might mature and also might be able to achieve scale. And just to give a sense of whether you're looking at sort of like a wide set of players or technologies or more of a short list?

只是想了解一下您剛剛對藍色氫和您的研究發表的評論。我只是好奇您是否對您認為某些技術可能成熟並且可能能夠實現規模化的時間框架有任何一般性想法。只是為了讓您了解一下您是在尋找各種各樣的玩家或技術，還是更多的短名單？

Yes. My view of hydrogen right now, blue hydrogen specifically, we think we can make blue hydrogen for cost of $20 per million Btu that would include the carbon capture of that as well. And I remember a year ago looking at that and saying, wow, if it's too expensive, why would anybody pay $20 for hydrogen when you can buy natural gas for lower in that? Well, $20 per million Btu doesn't seem that high compared to what Europe is paying today. But when you look at the majority of the cost of blue hydrogen, how do we get that to a sustainable pricing level? The majority of the cost to make blue hydrogen isn't in the actual transformation of natural gas to the hydrogen and capturing carbon. The majority of the costs come in the infrastructure it takes to move the hydrogen.

是的。我現在對氫的看法，特別是藍氫，我們認為我們可以以每百萬英熱單位 20 美元的成本製造藍氫，其中也包括碳捕獲。我記得一年前看到這個並說，哇，如果它太貴了，當你可以以更低的價格購買天然氣時，為什麼會有人花 20 美元購買氫氣呢？好吧，與歐洲今天支付的價格相比，每百萬英熱單位 20 美元似乎並不高。但是，當您查看藍色氫的大部分成本時，我們如何將其達到可持續的定價水平？製造藍色氫氣的大部分成本並不在於將天然氣實際轉化為氫氣和捕獲碳。大部分成本來自移動氫氣所需的基礎設施。

Now what's really interesting and what we're highlighting here is how can we bring the infrastructure cost down. Our unleash U.S. LNG campaign initiative, one of the by-products of that is we have the ability to execute this plan and increase production in the United States by an incremental 50 Bcf a day slated for exports to replace foreign coal. We would have the opportunity to rebuild approximately 50 Bcf a day of pipeline infrastructure. And when we do that, we're looking at ways to make sure that when we build that pipeline, we build it so that they're hydrogen ready. And if we can do that, then we've just set the table for the hydrogen economy here in the United States. And it will basically secure natural gas' future, but the role of natural gas may transform from being an end-use product to be in a feedstock for blue hydrogen. So we're looking at that.

現在真正有趣並且我們在這裡強調的是我們如何降低基礎設施成本。我們發起了美國液化天然氣運動計劃，其中一個副產品是我們有能力執行該計劃並將美國的產量增加 50 Bcf，預計用於出口以替代外國煤炭。我們將有機會每天重建大約 50 Bcf 的管道基礎設施。當我們這樣做時，我們正在尋找方法來確保當我們建造這條管道時，我們建造它以便它們可以使用氫氣。如果我們能做到這一點，那麼我們就已經為美國的氫經濟奠定了基礎。它將基本上確保天然氣的未來，但天然氣的作用可能會從最終用途產品轉變為藍色氫的原料。所以我們正在研究那個。

The other technology I'd say that's out there in hydrogen is -- the technology to keep an eye on is the technology that natural gas goes in, hydrogen comes out and solid carbon comes out as opposed to gaseous CO2. That's obviously going to really lower the logistics for actually what we do to actually capture that hydrogen. So that's some new technology that's out -- that is probably 3 to 5 years out, but well within a time frame as we're figuring out these different options.

我想說的另一種氫技術是——值得關注的技術是天然氣進入、氫排出和固體碳排出的技術，而不是氣態二氧化碳。這顯然會真正降低我們為實際捕獲氫所做的實際工作的物流。所以這是一些已經推出的新技術——可能需要 3 到 5 年，但在我們正在弄清楚這些不同選擇的時間框架內。

Great. That was the really, really nice view of the -- or explanation of the waterfront out there. And I guess in general, when you're talking about how it does seem all roads or many roads lead to greater reliance on Appalachian gas. And that to get there, of course, the pipeline situation has to be addressed. What do you sort of see as maybe the catalyst or what party or piece of the puzzle do you think might be the first to budge, whether you think it's on the financing side on sort of like the state initiative side? Any ideas of kind of what might start to unlock greater access to new pipeline projects?

偉大的。那是對那裡的海濱的真正非常好的看法或解釋。我猜一般來說，當您談論似乎所有道路或許多道路都導致對阿巴拉契亞天然氣的更大依賴時。當然，要實現這一目標，必須解決管道問題。你認為什麼可能是催化劑，或者你認為哪一方或哪一塊拼圖可能是第一個讓步的，無論你是否認為它是在融資方面，有點像國家倡議方面？有什麼想法可以開始釋放對新管道項目的更多訪問權限嗎？

Yes, I think it starts by a shift in sentiment and a shift in understanding how important natural gas plays in this world. We are seeing the reality of a world that is undersupplied with hydrocarbons. And the result is this energy crisis we're facing today, unnecessarily high energy prices, ramped inflation, war in Ukraine and, by the way, emissions around the world are still rising because without natural gas, people are using more coal than they've ever used before. That, I think, is being recognized, and I think you're starting to see a shift in that sentiment shift translated to policies. The EU declaring natural gas as green. We're seeing that with the customers around the world.

是的，我認為它始於情緒的轉變和對天然氣在這個世界上的重要性的理解的轉變。我們正在看到一個碳氫化合物供應不足的世界的現實。結果是我們今天面臨的能源危機，不必要的高能源價格，通貨膨脹加劇，烏克蘭戰爭，順便說一句，世界各地的排放量仍在上升，因為沒有天然氣，人們使用的煤炭比他們還多”以前用過。我認為，這一點正在得到認可，我認為你開始看到這種情緒轉變轉化為政策。歐盟宣布天然氣為綠色。我們正在與世界各地的客戶一起看到這一點。

You're seeing that here domestically, the anti-inflation act that Manchin has put together to talk about -- to include in that pipeline reform, permitting reform that's necessary so that we could get the pipeline infrastructure and LNG infrastructure built on an accelerated time line in a more pragmatic way. That is another precursor that you're starting to see here. So -- and then on top of all that, you just look at the polling of Americans. Americans get it, over 70% saying we need more natural gas. So the Americans support this. The world is showing there's clearly a need for it. And now you're seeing governments adjust their policies to make this -- to make it easier for us to bring this energy into the world. But we're seeing the signs right now.

你在國內看到，Manchin 已經共同討論的反通脹法案 - 包括在管道改革中，允許進行必要的改革，以便我們能夠加快管道基礎設施和液化天然氣基礎設施的建設以更務實的方式行。這是您開始在這裡看到的另一個前兆。所以 - 然後最重要的是，你只需看看美國人的民意調查。美國人明白了，超過 70% 的人說我們需要更多的天然氣。所以美國人支持這一點。世界表明顯然需要它。現在你看到政府調整他們的政策來實現這一點——讓我們更容易將這種能量帶入世界。但我們現在看到了跡象。

And then to sort of follow through, then the financing then follows or will follow, you anticipate sort of a financial consequence.

然後進行某種跟進，然後融資會隨之而來或將隨之而來，您預計會產生某種財務後果。

Yes. Yes. So this is Dave. Yes, absolutely. Yes, the banks will be there. I think everything has got to be done obviously with a -- really with a low to no emissions kind of profile. And so people are not -- financing is not going to open up the kitty here unless [emissions] and things are being done on a very, we'll call it, responsible manner. So -- and if it's done, I think that's -- then you'll see the financing absolutely be there.

是的。是的。這就是戴夫。是的，一點沒錯。是的，銀行會在那裡。我認為一切顯然都必須以低排放或無排放的方式來完成。所以人們不是 - 除非[排放]並且事情正在以非常負責任的方式完成，否則融資不會在這裡打開小貓。所以 - 如果它完成了，我認為那就是 - 那麼你會看到融資絕對存在。

There are no additional questions at this time. I will pass it back to Toby for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我會將其轉回給 Toby 以供結束髮言。

All right, everybody. Thanks for your time this morning, and we look forward to continue to working hard to create value for our stakeholders.

好吧，大家。感謝您今天上午的寶貴時間，我們期待繼續努力為我們的利益相關者創造價值。

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝你。您現在可以斷開線路。