EQT Corp (EQT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is JL, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the EQT Q4 2024 quarterly results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫 JL，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 EQT 2024 年第四季業績電話會議。（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Cameron Horwitz, Manager Director, Investor Relations and Strategy. You may begin.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和策略經理總監 Cameron Horwitz。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and year-end 2024 earnings results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer. In a moment, Toby and Jeremy will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow. An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion. A replay of today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和年終收益業績電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Toby Rice；以及財務長傑里米·諾普（Jeremy Knop）。稍後，托比和傑里米將發表準備好的發言，隨後進行問答環節。更新後的投資者介紹已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中參考某些幻燈片。今天晚上開始，我們將在我們的網站上提供今天電話會議的重播。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation, the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。由於昨天的收益報告、我們的投資者介紹、我們最新的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表的風險因素部分以及我們隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

Today's call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們最新的收益報告和投資者介紹，以了解有關此類指標的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone. 2024 was a transformational year for EQT, marked by both record-setting operational accomplishments and bold strategic positioning at unprecedented speed. The highlight of the year was closing of the Equitrans acquisition in July, which created America's only large-scale integrated natural gas company.

謝謝，Cam，大家早安。 2024 年是 EQT 轉型的一年，其特點是創紀錄的營運成就和以前所未有的速度進行大膽的策略定位。今年的亮點是 7 月完成對 Equitrans 的收購，誕生了美國唯一一家大型綜合天然氣公司。

After only six months, our integration process is now 90% complete, with synergies captured to date exceeding base case expectations, building on our growing track record of value-enhancing M&A followed by successful efficient integration.

僅經過六個月，我們的整合過程就已完成 90%，迄今為止所實現的協同效應超出了基本預期，這得益於我們不斷增長的價值提升型併購記錄以及隨後的成功高效整合。

Our rapid execution speed has driven the capture of more than $200 million of annualized base synergies or 85% of our forecasted plan. Our 2025 budget also reflects a much faster-than-expected impact from our midstream compression investments. As tangible evidence, we now expect to turn in line 10 to 15 fewer wells annually while maintaining current production levels, with more reductions in savings expected in the years ahead.

我們的快速執行速度已實現超過 2 億美元的年化基礎綜效，占我們預測計畫的 85%。我們的 2025 年預算也反映了中游壓縮投資的影響遠超預期。作為實際的證據，我們現在預計在保持現有生產水準的同時，每年投產的油井數量將減少 10 到 15 口，預計未來幾年節餘將進一步減少。

In upstream operations, our teams shattered multiple company efficiency records last year, resulting in a 20% increase in completed lateral footage per day relative to 2023. These efficiency gains are carrying over into 2025, allowing us to drop from three to two frac crews in April as we are choosing to prioritize cost savings instead of production growth. It is important to note that until recently, we planned to run a third frac crew for the most of 2025, highlighting our continued momentum into the end of the year.

在上游作業中，我們的團隊去年打破了多項公司效率記錄，與 2023 年相比，每天完成的橫向鑽進量增加了 20%。這些效率的提升將延續到 2025 年，使我們在 4 月的壓裂隊伍從三支減少到兩支，因為我們選擇優先節省成本而不是增加產量。值得注意的是，直到最近，我們還計劃在 2025 年的大部分時間裡運行第三個壓裂隊，這突顯了我們在年底前持續保持的良好勢頭。

As a result of these efficiency gains, we expect our 2025 average well costs to fall by approximately $70 per foot compared to 2024. Additionally, well productivity continues to improve, which drove 65 Bcf of production outperformance in 2024. Had we not curtailed volumes in response to market conditions, our production would have exceeded the high end of our original guidance by 3%. We expect this performance will carry into 2025 in the form of more volume in a higher price environment without having to increase activity or capital.

由於這些效率的提高，我們預計 2025 年的平均井成本將比 2024 年下降約 70 美元/英尺。此外，油井生產率持續提高，推動2024年的產量超出預期650億立方英尺。如果我們沒有根據市場情況減少產量，我們的產量將比最初預期的高點高出 3%。我們預計，這種表現將延續到 2025 年，在更高的價格環境下，交易量將更大，而無需增加活動或資本。

During the fourth quarter, EQT's operational momentum resulted in outperformance across the board. We delivered production at the high end of guidance and CapEx 7% below the low end of guidance. Our tactical curtailment strategy improves realized pricing. And once again, the teams kept operating expenses in check, driving cost to the low end of guidance. EQT generated more than $750 million of net cash provided by operating activities and nearly $600 million of free cash flow during the fourth quarter alone, despite Henry Hub averaging just $2.81 per million BTU. These results showcase the unparalleled earnings power of our integrated low-cost platform and underscore EQT's unrivaled free cash flow durability even at low gas prices.

第四季度，EQT 的營運勢頭強勁，全線表現優異。我們的產量達到了指導值的最高值，但資本支出比指導值的最低值低 7%。我們的戰術削減策略提高了實際定價。再次，各車隊控制了營運費用，將成本推低至指導價的低端。儘管亨利港的平均價格僅為每百萬英熱單位 2.81 美元，但 EQT 僅在第四季度就產生了超過 7.5 億美元的營運活動淨現金和近 6 億美元的自由現金流。這些結果展示了我們一體化低成本平台無與倫比的獲利能力，並強調了 EQT 即使在低油價下也具有無與倫比的自由現金流持久性。

Turning to reserves. Pro forma for our non-operated asset sales, EQT's year-end 2024 proved reserves were essentially unchanged year-over-year at approximately 26 Tcfe despite the SEC price deck dropping from $2.64 to $2.13 per million BTU, underscoring the resiliency of our premier low-cost Appalachian reserve base.

轉向儲備。就我們非經營資產銷售而言，儘管 SEC 價格從每百萬 BTU 2.64 美元跌至 2.13 美元，但 EQT 2024 年底的探明儲量與去年同期相比基本保持不變，約為 26 Tcfe，這凸顯了我們優質低成本阿巴拉契亞儲量基地的彈性。

At strip pricing, the PV-10 of our proved reserves totals approximately $28 billion. However, this value only includes three years of our more than 30 years of future inventory and excludes the value associated with our third-party midstream revenue that MVP and Hammerhead pipelines and our 1.2 Bcf per day of premium firm sales deals with the major utilities in the Southeast market.

依照條帶定價，我們的已探明儲量 PV-10 總計約 280 億美元。然而，這個價值只包括我們未來 30 多年的庫存中的三年，並不包括與我們第三方中游收入相關的價值，即 MVP 和 Hammerhead 管道以及我們與東南市場主要公用事業公司達成的每天 12 億立方英尺的優質固定銷售交易。

The total value of our proved reserves at strip pricing plus these other core assets equates to roughly our current enterprise value. That means investors can own EQT today and essentially get our peer-leading inventory depth for free, underscoring what is still an unrivaled value proposition for investors.

以條帶定價計算的已探明儲量的總價值加上這些其他核心資產大致等於我們目前的企業價值。這意味著投資者今天就可以擁有 EQT，並且基本上免費獲得我們同行領先的庫存深度，這凸顯了對投資者來說這仍然是一個無與倫比的價值主張。

Shifting to our 2025 outlook. We are initiating a production guidance range of 2,175 Bcfe to 2,275 Bcfe with a midpoint that is 125 Bcfe above the preliminary 2025 volume outlook referenced last quarter. This strong outlook is driven by robust well performance, completion efficiency gains, and earlier-than-expected benefits from compression investments. We will continue running just 2 to 3 rigs and recently elected to drop from 3 to 2 frac crews beginning in April to prevent our efficiency gains from tipping the business into growth mode. This minimal level of activity juxtaposed against our 7-plus Bcf a day of gross production underscores our operational momentum and our world-class assets.

轉向我們的 2025 年展望。我們設定的產量指引範圍為 21750 億立方英尺當量至 22750 億立方英尺當量，中間值比上個季度提到的 2025 年初步產量預期高出 1250 億立方英尺當量。這種強勁的前景是由強勁的油井性能、完井效率的提高以及壓縮投資帶來的早於預期的收益所驅動的。我們將繼續運行 2 到 3 座鑽機，並最近決定從 4 月開始將壓裂隊數量從 3 個減少到 2 個，以防止我們的效率提升導致業務進入成長模式。這種最低限度的活動水準與我們每天70多億立方英尺的總產量形成鮮明對比，凸顯了我們的營運動能和世界一流的資產。

As it relates to our investments, we have established a 2025 maintenance capital budget of $1.95 billion to $2.1 billion. We have also allocated $350 million to $380 million to value-creating growth projects beyond maintenance, including $130 million in Equitrans compression investments. Our reserve development capital budget of $1.35 billion to $1.45 billion is down nearly 10% per unit of production compared to 2024 when normalized for curtailments and approximately 15% below 2023 levels. We expect our continued efficiency gains and compression investments will drive this number down even further over the coming years.

就我們的投資而言，我們已經制定了 2025 年維護資本預算，為 19.5 億美元至 21 億美元。我們也為維護以外的增值成長項目撥款 3.5 億至 3.8 億美元，其中包括 1.3 億美元的 Equitrans 壓縮投資。我們的儲備開發資本預算為 13.5 億美元至 14.5 億美元，與 2024 年因削減而正常化的水平相比，每單位生產量下降了近 10%，比 2023 年的水平低了約 15%。我們預計，未來幾年我們持續的效率提升和壓縮投資將使這一數字進一步下降。

At strip pricing, we expect EQT to generate approximately $2.6 billion of free cash flow in 2025, $3.3 billion in 2026, and approximately $15 billion cumulatively over the next five years. To wrap up, material efficiency gains, robust well performance, and Equitrans integration momentum continued to drive outperformance across the board. The momentum within EQT is at its highest level since we took over the company in 2019, and we are excited to continue showcasing the power of our platform in 2025 and beyond.

以條形定價，我們預期 EQT 將在 2025 年產生約 26 億美元的自由現金流，2026 年產生 33 億美元，未來五年累計產生約 150 億美元。總而言之，材料效率的提高、強勁的油井性能以及 Equitrans 整合勢頭繼續推動全線表現優異。自從我們在 2019 年接管公司以來，EQT 的發展勢頭達到了最高水平，我們很高興能夠在 2025 年及以後繼續展示我們平台的強大功能。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給傑里米。

Thanks, Toby. I'll start with the highlights of our fourth quarter results. First, we delivered sales volumes of 605 Bcfe at the high end of guidance, driven by operational momentum that Toby discussed. Normalized for curtailments, production would have come in at approximately 632 Bcfe or 6.9 Bcfe per day, a tangible demonstration of our operational momentum.

謝謝，托比。我先介紹一下我們第四季的業績亮點。首先，在托比所說的營運動能的推動下，我們實現了 6,050 億立方英尺當量的銷售量，達到預期的高點。如果按照減產正常化計算，產量將達到約 6,320 億立方英尺當量，即每天 69 億立方英尺當量，這充分證明了我們的營運動能。

While on the topic of production, it is worth noting that we experienced less than 1 Bcf of freeze-offs during the polar vortex events last month compared with 13 Bcf during Winter Storm Elliott in 2022. Greater alignment and collaboration with our new midstream colleagues drove the step change improvement in performance.

談到產量，值得注意的是，上個月極地渦旋事件期間，我們經歷的凍結量不到 10 億立方英尺，而 2022 年冬季風暴埃利奧特期間的凍結量為 130 億立方英尺。與我們新的中游同事的更大協調與合作推動了績效的重大改進。

Turning to pricing. Our differential came in $0.13 tighter than the midpoint of our guidance range as we curtailed volumes early in the quarter during the weakest periods of local pricing before surging volumes back when pricing strengthened. This is the second consecutive quarter of material realized pricing outperformance due to tactical curtailments, underscoring how our curtailment strategy creates shareholder value without disrupting operations or impairing productive capacity in a volatile market.

談到定價。我們的差價比指導範圍的中點收窄了 0.13 美元，因為我們在本季度初當地價格最弱的時期削減了交易量，然後在價格走強時再次大幅增加交易量。這是連續第二個季度由於戰術性削減而實現的材料實際定價超出預期，凸顯了我們的削減策略如何在動蕩的市場中不擾亂運營或損害生產能力的情況下創造股東價值。

To further demonstrate the value of this strategy, amid cold winter weather and strong local pricing in January, we opened up chokes on many of our wells, providing customers additional volume to meet winter demand while simultaneously exposing more production to high local pricing. Year-to-date in 2025, we've realized $20 million of revenue uplift from this strategy while delivering record levels of company production.

為了進一步證明這項策略的價值，在一月份寒冷的冬季天氣和強勁的當地價格背景下，我們打開了許多油井的節流閥，為客戶提供額外的產量以滿足冬季需求，同時在較高的當地價格下增加產量。截至 2025 年，我們已透過這項策略實現了 2,000 萬美元的收入成長，同時實現了創紀錄的公司產量。

Fourth quarter operating costs came in at $1.07 per Mcfe, at the low end of our guidance range due to production outperformance and gathering, LOE and G&A expenses below expectations. CapEx of $583 million was 7% below the low end of our guidance range due to efficiency gains and lower midstream spending. It's worth noting that aggregate CapEx during the second half of 2024 came in nearly $200 million below the midpoint of our expectations, again tangibly highlighting our capital efficiency momentum.

第四季的營運成本為每公斤當量法郎 1.07 美元，處於我們指導範圍的低端，原因是生產表現優異，且收集、LOE 和 G&A 費用低於預期。由於效率提高和中游支出減少，資本支出為 5.83 億美元，比我們的指導範圍低端低 7%。值得注意的是，2024 年下半年的總資本支出比我們預期的中點低近 2 億美元，再次切實凸顯了我們的資本效率動能。

On the midstream side, third-party pipeline revenue was $166 million, 7% above the high end of guidance. MVP capital contributions of $60 million were 14% below the low end of guidance, and MVP distributions of $53 million were in line with expectations. EQT generated $756 million of net cash provided by operating activities and $588 million of free cash flow during the fourth quarter despite Henry Hub averaging just $2.81 per MMBtu, underscoring the unparalleled nature of our low-cost business model during all parts of the commodity cycle.

在中游方面，第三方管道收入為 1.66 億美元，比預期最高值高出 7%。MVP 資本貢獻為 6,000 萬美元，比指導值低 14%，而 MVP 分配為 5,300 萬美元，符合預期。儘管亨利港的平均成本僅為每百萬英熱單位 2.81 美元，殷拓在第四季度仍產生了 7.56 億美元的經營活動淨現金和 5.88 億美元的自由現金流，凸顯了我們的低成本商業模式在大宗商品週期各個階段無與倫比的特性。

Turning to the balance sheet. During the fourth quarter, we delivered on our asset sales promises a year ahead of schedule to derisk our balance sheet and position our hedge book for a rising price environment. In December, we closed on the sale of our remaining non-operated Northeast Pennsylvania assets and Midstream joint venture.

轉向資產負債表。在第四季度，我們提前一年兌現了資產銷售承諾，以降低資產負債表的風險，並為價格上漲的環境做好對沖準備。12月，我們完成了剩餘未營運的賓州東北部資產和中游合資企業的出售。

Proceeds from these transactions totaled $4.7 billion, which we used to fully repay our term loan, fund the repayment of senior notes and pay down our credit facility. We exited 2024 with $9.3 billion of total debt and $9.1 billion of net debt compared to $13.8 billion and $13.7 billion, respectively, at the end of the third quarter. It's worth noting that our net debt at year-end reflects the impact of $475 million of working capital usage during the quarter, the bulk of which should reverse in 2025.

這些交易的收益總計 47 億美元，我們用這筆錢全額償還了定期貸款、償還了優先票據並償還了我們的信貸額度。到 2024 年，我們的總債務為 93 億美元，淨債務為 91 億美元，而第三季末分別為 138 億美元和 137 億美元。值得注意的是，我們年底的淨債務反映了本季 4.75 億美元營運資本使用的影響，其中大部分應在 2025 年逆轉。

At strip pricing, we expect to exit 2025 with net debt of approximately $7 billion, comfortably below our target of $7.5 billion. In the medium term, we plan to reduce our absolute debt balance towards $5 billion to bulletproof our balance sheet and credit ratings so that we can play offense during the next down cycle when others are forced to play defense. For reference, this debt balance equates to approximately 5 times free cash flow and at $2.75 Henry Hub price, which is a price point where many of our peers are free cash flow neutral to negative.

根據剝離定價，我們預計 2025 年淨債務將達到約 70 億美元，遠低於 75 億美元的目標。從中期來看，我們計劃將絕對債務餘額削減至 50 億美元，以確保我們的資產負債表和信用評級，這樣當下一個經濟下行週期，其他人將被迫採取防守措施時，我們就能夠採取進攻措施。作為參考，該債務餘額相當於自由現金流的約 5 倍，亨利中心的價格為 2.75 美元，在這個價格點上，我們的許多同行的自由現金流都是中性到負數。

Turning to hedging. Our rapid asset sale execution and bullish outlook for pricing in 2025 and 2026 positioned us to add no incremental hedges during this quarter. Recall, we tactically sculpted our hedge book to have material upside to improving macro conditions later this year. Our hedge percentage falls to approximately 40% in Q4 with 100% of our hedges becoming wide colors with ceilings of $5.50 per MMBtu in November.

轉向對沖。我們快速的資產銷售執行和對 2025 年和 2026 年定價的樂觀前景使我們在本季度不會增加增量對沖。回想一下，我們策略性地塑造了我們的對沖帳簿，以便在今年稍後改善宏觀環境時獲得實質的上升空間。我們的對沖比例在第四季下降到約 40%，其中 100% 的對沖變為寬色系，11 月的上限為每百萬英熱單位 5.50 美元。

We remain unhedged in 2026 and beyond, providing investors full exposure to an increasingly bullish setup for prices. Our position at the low end of the cost curve acts as a structural hedge, which in turn facilitates unmatched exposure to high price scenarios by limiting our need to financially hedge.

2026 年及以後我們仍未採取對沖措施，為投資者提供充分的機會接觸日益看漲的價格環境。我們處於成本曲線低端的地位，起到了結構性對沖的作用，這反過來又通過限制我們的財務對沖需要，促進了我們無可匹敵的高價情景敞口。

As previously communicated, we plan to approach future hedging patiently and opportunistically in order to capture asymmetric skew in the options market. In essence, this approach positions us to monetize volatility and realize higher-than-average gas prices through the cycle.

正如之前所傳達的，我們計劃耐心而擇機地進行未來的對沖，以捕捉期權市場中的不對稱偏差。本質上，這種方法使我們能夠將波動性貨幣化，並在整個週期中實現高於平均水平的天然氣價格。

Turning to the macro landscape, two years of low commodity prices resulted in upstream underinvestment. This supplied backdrop, combined with an unusually cold winter, ramping LNG exports and robust power demand has catalyzed an inflection in natural gas prices over the past quarter. While gas prices have already surged, we think there is still room to run and cannot recall as wide of a disconnect between the equity and commodity markets as we are observing today.

從宏觀角度來看，兩年的大宗商品價格低迷導致上游投資不足。在這樣的供應背景下，加上異常寒冷的冬季、不斷增加的液化天然氣出口和強勁的電力需求，催化了過去一個季度天然氣價格的上漲。雖然汽油價格已經飆升，但我們認為仍有上漲空間，而且我們無法想像股票市場和大宗商品市場之間的脫節會像今天這樣嚴重。

The Haynesville is suffering from years of underinvestment and increasingly scarce inventory depth and we believe will be much slower to respond than the commodity markets or pricing. Appalachia is largely pipeline-constrained and there are no new pipelines out of the Permian until late 2026. Simply put, it will take too long to increase gas production to meet the step change increase in demand during such a short time. And we believe the market may have to balance inventories through demand destruction in the hands of higher prices in 2025 and 2026.

海恩斯維爾多年來一直遭受投資不足和庫存深度日益稀缺的困擾，我們認為其反應速度將比商品市場或定價慢得多。阿巴拉契亞山脈的管線資源十分有限，直到 2026 年底才會在二疊紀盆地鋪設新的管線。簡而言之，在如此短的時間內增加天然氣產量以滿足需求的階梯式增長將需要太長時間。我們認為，市場可能必須透過 2025 年和 2026 年價格上漲來消除需求，從而平衡庫存。

Looking further ahead, we are eyes wide open that nearly 5 Bcf per day of new Permian gas pipelines are slated for completion in late 2026 just before Qatar brings 6 Bcf per day of LNG on the global market. With these medium-term headwinds and the fact that capital spending would not result in additional production until mid-2026, we do not have plans to invest in production growth this year and view the coming inventory imbalance at higher prices as a phenomenon of the timing mismatch of supply and demand, amplified by a cold winter and the theme of too little gas storage capacity.

展望未來，我們拭目以待，預計2026年底，二疊紀盆地新的天然氣管道將建成，日產量將近50億立方英尺，而卡達將以每天60億立方英尺的液化天然氣供應全球市場。鑑於這些中期不利因素，以及資本支出直到 2026 年中期才會帶來額外產量的事實，我們今年沒有投資於產量增長的計劃，並將即將到來的價格上漲下的庫存不平衡視為供需時間錯配的現象，寒冷的冬季和天然氣存儲容量太少的主題加劇了這種現象。

Alongside a broader bullish backdrop for natural gas, the underlying fundamentals in Appalachia continue to strengthen with tightening base as one of the most underappreciated themes. Robust demand in the Southeast region has driven MVP flows to maximum capacity of 2 Bcf per day this winter, contributing to Eastern storage levels moving from near five-year highs last fall to near five-year lows today. As a result, our production sold into the local M2 market and our MVP volumes sold at Station 165 have received robust pricing.

除天然氣市場普遍看漲背景外，阿巴拉契亞地區的基本面持續增強，而基礎收緊成為最被低估的主題之一。今年冬季，東南地區強勁的需求推動 MVP 流量達到每天 20 億立方英尺的最大容量，導致東部儲存水準從去年秋季的近五年高點降至如今的近五年低點。因此，我們的產品銷往了當地的 M2 市場，在 165 站銷售的 MVP 數量也獲得了強勁的定價。

During the January cold spell, Station 165 spreads to Appalachian price points rose to more than $25 per MMBtu, underscoring the tremendous upside option value embedded in our MVP capacity during periods of high demand. Longer term, we continue to see 6 to 7 Bcf per day of incremental Appalachian demand by 2030 driven by load growth, coal retirement and pipeline expansions.

在一月份的寒流期間，165號站與阿巴拉契亞價格點的價差上漲至每百萬英熱單位25美元以上，凸顯了在需求旺盛時期我們的MVP容量所蘊含的巨大上行期權價值。從長遠來看，到 2030 年，受負荷成長、煤炭退役和管道擴建的推動，阿巴拉契亞山脈的需求將繼續增加 600-70 億立方英尺/天。

At the same time, we believe many producers in Appalachia will see productivity degradation or run out of inventory entirely, further tightening local fundamentals. M2 basis futures are beginning to reflect this reality, tightening by approximately $0.30 between 2026 and 2030 over the past two years. EQT is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the setup as we have the highest quality and longest-duration inventory in the basin paired with a replicable world-class infrastructure. These characteristics, our investment-grade credit ratings and low emissions credentials make EQT the go-to company for new power projects and position the business for sustainable future production growth.

同時，我們認為阿巴拉契亞地區的許多生產商將面臨生產力下降或庫存完全耗盡的局面，從而進一步收緊當地的基本面。M2 基礎期貨開始反映這一現實，在過去兩年中，2026 年至 2030 年間收緊了約 0.30 美元。EQT 擁有獨特的優勢，可以利用這一設置，因為我們擁有盆地中品質最高、持續時間最長的庫存，以及可複製的世界級基礎設施。這些特點、我們的投資等級信用評級和低排放資格使 EQT 成為新電力項目的首選公司，並為未來可持續的生產成長做好了準備。

Turning to capital allocation. At recent strip pricing, we expect to generate approximately $2.6 billion of free cash flow in 2025, which we plan to allocate toward debt repayment. With our balance sheet derisked, we plan to steadily and sustainably grow our base dividend over the years ahead and position to opportunistically repurchase shares when the market is fearful. Beyond 2025, our integrated business is ideally situated to support Appalachian demand growth, positioning EQT to provide sustainable, low-risk organic growth for shareholders, a key attribute missing from the industry today.

轉向資本配置。按照最近的定價，我們預計 2025 年將產生約 26 億美元的自由現金流，我們計劃將其用於償還債務。在資產負債表風險降低的情況下，我們計劃在未來幾年穩步、可持續地增加基本股息，並在市場恐慌時適時回購股票。到 2025 年以後，我們的綜合業務將能夠理想地支持阿巴拉契亞的需求成長，從而使 EQT 能夠為股東提供可持續、低風險的有機成長，這是當今行業所缺乏的關鍵屬性。

We are in the process of generating a backlog of low-risk, high-return midstream investments to support this demand growth, which would in turn unlock modest upstream production growth from our decades of high-quality inventory. We have uniquely positioned EQT among the energy landscape, offering investors not only the best risk-adjusted exposure to natural gas but also idiosyncratic growth opportunities that should allow us to compound capital and create differentiated value over the long term.

我們正在進行低風險、高回報的中游投資積壓，以支持這項需求成長，進而從我們數十年的高品質庫存中釋放出適度的上游產量成長。我們擁有 EQT 在能源領域的獨特定位，不僅為投資者提供最佳的風險調整後天然氣投資機會，還提供獨特的成長機會，使我們能夠在長期內增加資本並創造差異化價值。

And with that, I will turn it back over to Toby for concluding remarks.

最後，我將把發言權交還給托比，請他作最後總結。

Thanks, Jeremy. The past five years have been an incredible journey. In this time, we have transformed EQT into America's only large-scale integrated gas producer, becoming the must-own natural gas company. Looking forward, we will continue our pursuit of becoming the operator of choice amongst all stakeholders, and we've got a great setup in front of us. Costs are going down, operational efficiency gains continue, asset quality shining, our inventory is still staying deep. Capital intensity is improving. Deleveraging plans are ahead of expectations, the E-Train integration and synergy capture both ahead of schedule.

謝謝，傑里米。過去五年是一段不可思議的旅程。在此期間，我們把EQT打造成為美國唯一的大型綜合天然氣生產商，成為值得擁有的天然氣公司。展望未來，我們將繼續追求成為所有利害關係人的首選營運商，並且我們面前已經有一個良好的局面。成本正在下降，營運效率持續提高，資產品質不斷提高，我們的庫存仍然充足。資本密集度正在改善。去槓桿計畫超預期，E-Train整合及綜效雙雙提前實現。

Durable midstream growth projects are entering our program and Appalachia fundamentals are strengthening in demand for our product across this country is surging. 2025 is poised to deliver a banner year. We are excited to demonstrate the differentiated benefits and earnings power of our business in the years ahead. The bullish inflection in natural gas fundamentals supercharges our excitement. And when we look at the 2026 free cash flow and beyond, investors still have the opportunity to own our premium story and assets at a discounted valuation compared to peers.

持久的中游成長項目正在進入我們的計劃，阿巴拉契亞基本面正在增強，全國對我們產品的需求正在激增。 2025 年必將是輝煌的一年。我們很高興能夠在未來幾年展示我們業務的差異化優勢和盈利能力。天然氣基本面的看漲轉變讓我們更加興奮。當我們展望2026年及以後的自由現金流時，投資者仍然有機會以相對於同業較低的估值持有我們的優質故事和資產。

With that, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

現在，我想開始回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

This is John Abbott on for Doug Leggate. Just Toby, maybe I just want to start off with your like -- we appreciate the breakout on maintenance CapEx for 2025. Maybe you can start off just sort of discussing how you've risked that and how you sort of see that evolving in the coming years.

這是 Doug Leggate 的約翰阿博特 (John Abbott)。只是托比，也許我只是想從你的想法開始——我們很欣賞 2025 年維護資本支出的突破。或許您可以先討論一下您面臨的風險以及您認為未來幾年情況將如何發展。

Yeah. So when we think about the maintenance CapEx, you start with the asset quality. I think we put numbers out there on well performance. That gives us a good read on the type of volumes we're looking to replace. And then it just comes down to picking the operational efficiencies that drive that along with the cost. So we fully bake these plans. We're backed by historical performance.

是的。因此，當我們考慮維護資本支出時，首先要考慮資產品質。我認為，我們把數字放在了良好的表現上。這讓我們很好地了解了我們想要替換的捲類型。然後，就只需要選擇能夠推動這目標的營運效率以及成本。所以我們全面製定了這些計劃。歷史業績為我們提供了支持。

We are taking into account the operational efficiencies we proved in '24 and are rolling that forward in '25. I think a lot of the things that are giving us confidence in the operational efficiencies are structural fixes to the business, one of them being E-Train and the water infrastructure. That has always been a challenge for us. But now that we have those assets, the teams are locking in the efficiency gains there.

我們正在考慮到我們在’24年證明的營運效率，並將在’25年繼續推進。我認為許多讓我們對營運效率充滿信心的因素都是業務的結構性修復，其中之一就是 E-Train 和水利基礎設施。這對我們來說一直是個挑戰。但是現在我們有了這些資產，各隊正在鎖定那裡的效率效益。

Going forward, what this looks like, I think we put that slide out there on the reserve development capital efficiency. And you'll see that, that will continue to come down over time. So there is a little bit of a dynamic at play in the near term with us adding compression but still long-term trends, the upstream maintenance intensity is going to be coming down.

展望未來，我認為我們將這張投影片放在了儲備發展資本效率上。你會發現，隨著時間的推移，這個數字將會持續下降。因此，短期內會出現一些動態變化，我們會增加壓縮，但長期趨勢仍是上游維護強度將會下降。

Yeah, John, I'd also add to that. Initially, when we've talked about our 2025 capital plan, the assumption was peak spend for our compression investments probably wouldn't happen until 2026. We've been able to pull that forward, and so the numbers you see for spend of about $130 million in 2025 is peak spend. Kind of ballpark, we expect that to decline in 2026 and then thereafter. So 2026 ballpark number today is like $85 million.

是的，約翰，我也想補充這一點。最初，當我們談論 2025 年資本計畫時，假設我們的壓縮投資的高峰支出可能要到 2026 年才會出現。我們已經能夠將這一目標提前，因此您看到 2025 年約 1.3 億美元的支出數字是峰值支出。大致來說，我們預計該數字將在 2026 年及之後下降。因此，2026 年的大概數字今天是 8,500 萬美元。

So that's really been pulled forward and that's pulled production forward at the same time. So I think in terms of a lot of those investments, it's really downhill from here, which is great. It's accelerating value into the exact market. We want to do that.

因此，這確實被拉動了，同時也拉動了生產。因此我認為，就很多投資而言，從現在開始情況確實在走下坡路，這很好。它正在加速價值進入精確市場。我們想這麼做。

And then in terms of how we model it, I know we talked about this in the past, but I think there's still a bit of conservatism baked into how we're modeling the net impact from these projects. It's still early so I don't think we want to get ahead of ourselves just yet.

然後就我們如何對其進行建模而言，我知道我們過去討論過這個問題，但我認為我們在建模這些項目的淨影響時仍然存在一些保守主義。現在還為時過早，所以我認為我們還不想太急於求成。

But if you boil it down, the beats that we have seen in the last couple of quarters, both with CapEx coming in low and also production being really robust or really coming from that. So I think we're hopeful that we see continued outperformance, but we're being patient at this time until we see a little bit more time go by and results come in.

但如果你把它歸結起來，我們在過去幾季中看到的好壞參半，既有資本支出較低，也有生產非常強勁或真正源於此。因此，我認為我們希望看到持續的優異表現，但我們現在要耐心等待，直到我們看到更多時間過去並看到結果。

And that's a good segue into our second question. So where are you right now as far as thinking about the benefits from compression? You raised 2025 production guidance. What is your understanding of the benefits of compression, of added compression at this point in time? And how have you baked that into your plan?

這很好地引出了我們的第二個問題。那麼，就壓縮帶來的好處而言，您現在考慮得怎麼樣？您提高了 2025 年的生產指導。您對壓縮以及此時增加壓縮的好處有何理解？您是怎樣將其融入您的計劃中的呢？

We have put that into our plans now. The question really is just going to be on the timing. The teams -- are there some more compression projects that they can -- that they're identifying in the future? Sure. But that will now be part of our base maintenance plans to make sure that we're installing compression to keep gathering lines at the right pressures.

我們現在已經將其納入我們的計劃中。問題其實只是時機問題。這些團隊 — — 他們將來還能確定更多的壓縮項目嗎？當然。但現在這將成為我們基礎維護計劃的一部分，以確保我們安裝壓縮裝置以保持集輸管線處於正確的壓力。

As Jeremy mentioned, I mean, I think the biggest focus for us was getting these compression projects on to the schedule as quickly as possible, and commend the team for the work they've done in less than six months from closing this deal to be able to get these projects put on board.

正如傑里米所提到的，我的意思是，我認為我們最大的重點是盡快將這些壓縮項目納入計劃，並讚揚團隊在達成這筆交易後不到六個月的時間內所做的工作，以便能夠將這些項目納入計劃。

So what we'll be watching going forward, we are assuming an uplift on these compression projects. That could change a little bit higher or lower. We've got about, I think it's about eight compression projects that we've got history that we're using to guide our forecast. But that's probably the biggest moving piece right now but it should be very small in nature.

因此，我們接下來將關注的是，我們假設這些壓縮項目會有所提升。這可能會變高或變低一點。我認為，我們有大約八個壓縮項目，我們有歷史記錄，可以用來指導我們的預測。但這可能是目前最大的變動，但本質應該非常小。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)。

Toby, I wanted to see if we could discuss your thoughts on kind of the longer-term kind of CapEx trajectory at EQT. The budget this year is for $2.4 billion, call it, just under, call it, about $2 billion for maintenance, just under $400 million for strategic growth. Last quarter, you highlighted the potential for EQT's all-in CapEx to be in the low 2s, and that was before capturing $175 million of potential E-Train synergies.

托比，我想看看我們是否可以討論一下您對 EQT 長期資本支出軌跡的看法。今年的預算為 24 億美元，約 20 億美元用於維護，4 億美元用於策略性成長。上個季度，您強調了 EQT 全部資本支出可能在 2% 以下，而這還是在獲得 1.75 億美元的潛在 E-Train 協同效應之前。

So I was wondering how you think about kind of your maintenance CapEx evolving over time, including that strategic kind of CapEx budget includes some compression in some of those midstream type of projects.

所以我想知道您如何看待維護資本支出隨著時間的推移而變化，包括策略性資本支出預算對一些中游項目進行一定程度的壓縮。

Yes, Arun, I think it's important why we're putting the spotlight on the actual maintenance spending that we have being around that $2 billion number this year. Looking forward, what could that look like? If you look at Slide 8 on our deck, we're showing the [res dev] capital intensity. We'll show the cost coming down for maintenance spending on res dev, which is option business. The question is going to be, are we going to have more growth opportunities on the midstream front? But we should see a natural trending down of our maintenance CapEx for the upstream side of the business over the coming years.

是的，阿倫，我認為重要的是我們為什麼要關註今年的實際維護支出約為 20 億美元。展望未來，那會是什麼樣子？如果你看我們投影片中的第 8 張，你會看到我們展示了[res dev] 資本密集度。我們將展示住宅開發維護支出（可選業務）的成本下降。問題是，我們是否會在中游領域有更多的成長機會？但在未來幾年，我們應該會看到業務上游的維護資本支出自然呈現下降趨勢。

Arun, the reason we broke out our maintenance capital separate from growth again, if you look at the midpoint of that number, it's already trending below that prior guidance we had put out. So I think things are already moving in that direction. I'd suspect that with successful results on the compression, I think that has a chance to move even lower.

阿倫，我們再次將維護資本與成長資本分開的原因是，如果你看一下該數字的中點，它已經趨於低於我們先前發布的指導值。所以我認為事情已經朝這個方向發展了。我懷疑，如果壓縮成功，那麼這個數字還有機會進一步降低。

But that's why we put that out just so as you think about modeling two years out and beyond, I think that's kind of the number you need to anchor to before thinking about any sort of other projects that would be more bespoke in nature.

但這就是我們提出這一點的原因，當您考慮建模兩年及以後時，我認為這是您在考慮任何其他更具定制性質的項目之前需要錨定的數字。

Got it. It sounds like you already had over 800,000 horsepower in terms of compression and expect that to grow a little bit. Maybe the second one for you, Jeremy. You've highlighted the potential for in-basin demand to grow by 6 to 7, which is obviously key to the EQT story. I was wondering how you're seeing things on the power demand side of the equation kind of evolve kind of locally.

知道了。聽起來你的壓縮功率已經超過 80 萬馬力，預計還會稍微成長。傑里米，對你來說也許第二個。您強調了流域內需求成長 6 到 7 的潛力，這顯然是 EQT 故事的關鍵。我想知道您如何看待方程式中電力需求方面的事態在局部範圍內的發展。

And also, I know you have now a strategic relationship with Blackstone, and they recently announced a deal to buy a large gas power plant in Virginia in that, call it, the Data Center Alley. So I was wondering if you could see how things are going on the power front in ways that this could be beneficial for EQT in terms of announcing gas for power deals. Anything like that where you could capture that part of the earnings stream, which is really being highly valued in the marketplace today?

另外，我知道您現在與黑石集團建立了戰略關係，他們最近宣布了一項交易，將收購弗吉尼亞州一個大型天然氣發電廠，即所謂的數據中心巷。所以我想知道您是否可以看到電力方面的進展情況，這對 EQT 宣布天然氣換電力交易是否有利。您是否能獲得類似這樣的收益流，而這部分收益流在當今市場上確實受到高度重視？

Yes, it's a great question. So I'd just say something seems to have happened in the last two months or so. Momentum has picked up in those discussions rapidly. We're having discussions directly with several hyperscalers, other intermediaries, other power producers. And I think while a quarter or two ago, we were hopeful, I think you're now seeing tangible signs of that. There's active negotiations going on, on different fronts, exploring specific opportunities.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。所以我只想說過去兩個月左右似乎發生了一些事情。這些討論的動力迅速增強。我們正在與幾家超大規模企業、其他中介機構和其他電力生產商直接進行討論。我認為，一兩個季度前我們充滿希望，現在我們已經看到了切實的跡象。目前，不同方面的談判正在進行中，旨在探索具體的機會。

And when you step back and think about why that is, there's a couple of sort of key gating items, I think, to even be relevant and at the table in these discussions. First of all, you have to be fully investment-grade rated. And when you look at the natural gas landscape, that doesn't -- that's not really a pervasive theme with many of our peers. There are really any of them at this point, especially across all three agencies.

當您退一步思考為什麼會發生這種情況時，我認為有幾個關鍵的限制事項與這些討論是相關的。首先，你必須獲得完全投資等級評級。當你觀察天然氣狀況時，你會發現這並不是我們許多同行普遍關注的主題。目前確實存在其中任何一個，特別是在所有三個機構中。

Our net zero credentials, I think are differentiated, especially in that tech crowd in really a peer group where we're the only peer. Production scale, the depth of inventory we have is unmatched. And so if you're going to build a data center or a power plant and you need 20, 30 years of gas supply reliably, there's not really anyone else you can go to. We saw the same dynamic with the big utilities in the Southeast for those deals we did 18 months ago, which were index plus file deals.

我認為，我們的淨零資格是有差異的，特別是在技術人群中，我們是真正的同儕群體中唯一的同行。我們的生產規模和庫存深度是無與倫比的。因此，如果您要建造一個資料中心或發電廠，並且需要 20 到 30 年的可靠天然氣供應，那麼您實際上沒有其他選擇。我們在 18 個月前與東南部的大型公用事業公司進行的交易中也看到了同樣的動態，這些交易是指數加文件交易。

And then I think the business we have really sculpted with this reintegration with Equitrans allows us to provide a holistic solution for these guys. So you've seen Williams Energy Transfer and some others talk about deals directly to power plants but what they can't provide is gas supply. And if you think about it from the perspective of a tech company or anyone further downstream, they don't want to have to go piece all this together with different dogs and cats to try to put a whole deal together.

然後我認為，透過與 Equitrans 重新整合，我們真正打造的業務使我們能夠為這些人提供整體解決方案。所以你看到 Williams Energy Transfer 和其他一些公司直接與發電廠談論交易，但他們無法提供天然氣供應。如果你從科技公司或下游企業的角度來考慮這個問題，他們並不想把所有這些事情拼湊在一起，試圖達成完整的交易。

The beauty of working with someone like EQT is we can take care of all of that upstream of the power plant. And so we've seen that be a pretty powerful theme, especially with an existing big FERC-regulated business already.

與 EQT 這樣的公司合作的好處在於，我們可以處理發電廠上游的所有事務。因此，我們已經看到這是一個相當強大的主題，特別是在已經存在受 FERC 監管的大型企業的情況下。

So look, I think we're pretty optimistic from where we stand today. The timing, exact structure of how it comes together, hopefully, at some point this year, I think we're still working through that. But there's a lot of different structures that we can provide.

所以，我認為從目前的狀況來看，我們還是相當樂觀的。至於時間和具體的結構如何實現，希望在今年某個時候能夠實現，我想我們仍在努力解決。但我們可以提供許多不同的結構。

And really, when you think about it, there's not many peers who can provide probably many of those and a lot of it comes down to counterparty credit risk. So if you're -- say, for every gigawatt of power plant, it probably costs you $30 billion in chips to invest in that. If you're the tech company building that, you're not going to compromise with a non-investment-grade counterparty, period, like you just don't take that risk.

事實上，如果你仔細想想，你會發現沒有多少同行能夠提供這些服務，而這很大程度上取決於交易對手信用風險。所以如果你——比如說，對於每一個千兆瓦的發電廠，你可能需要花費 300 億美元的晶片來投資。如果你是一家建立該業務的科技公司，你就不會與非投資等級的交易對手妥協，你就不會冒這個險。

And so for EQT, if we did even a fixed-price deal or a deal at some sort of premium to index, that creates counterparty margin posting. You're not going to do that with a non-investment-grade counterparty. And so I think really in these discussions, we're realizing more and more it's kind of just EQT because we don't really have anybody who can provide really the rest of those attributes is partly negotiating one of these deals. So we're pretty optimistic for where we sit today.

因此對於 EQT 而言，如果我們甚至達成了固定價格交易或以某種高於指數的價格進行交易，那麼就會產生交易對手保證金。你不會對非投資等級的交易對手這麼做。因此，我認為在這些討論中，我們越來越意識到這只是 EQT，因為我們實際上沒有任何人能夠真正提供其餘的屬性，部分是在談判其中一項交易。因此，我們對目前的狀況非常樂觀。

Kalei Akamine, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美銀美林的 Kalei Akamine。

Toby, my question is a follow-up to the in-basin pricing question related to future demand. Just a clarification here. When you say premium to index, are you talking about Henry Hub rather than a local index?

托比，我的問題是與未來需求有關的流域內定價問題的後續問題。這裡只需澄清一下。當您說高於指數時，您指的是亨利中心指數而不是本地指數嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Awesome. My next question is a follow-up on NBG South Gate. So a couple of weeks ago, we saw a filing suggesting that route would be shorter, 31 miles rather than the 75 miles with maybe fewer water crossings. Can you simply give us an update on that project?

驚人的。我的下一個問題是關於 NBG South Gate 的後續問題。因此，幾週前，我們看到一份文件表明該路線會更短，只有 31 英里而不是 75 英里，而且可能渡水次數也會更少。能簡單向我們介紹一下該專案的最新進展嗎？

Yes. That's a really cool example too of, I think, a synergy that we've been able to capture without -- I mean, it's not counted in like the synergy numbers that we talked to. So that was really a holistic upstream midstream solution that we were able to provide PS&C to help really keep that project going, shorten the cost of it while still delivering the same volume, and letting them -- ensure they have the gas reliably into that North Carolina market. So I would say things are on track right now, and I think that's just a tangible example of that progress we're making.

是的。我認為，這也是一個很酷的例子，我們能夠捕捉到協同效應，而無需——我的意思是，它不計入我們談到的協同效應數字中。因此，這實際上是一個整體的上游中游解決方案，我們能夠為 PS&C 提供該解決方案，真正幫助該項目繼續進行，在仍然交付相同產量的同時縮短成本，並讓他們確保能夠可靠地將天然氣輸送到北卡羅來納州市場。所以我想說現在事情正在步入正軌，我認為這只是我們取得進展的一個具體例子。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾梅塔 (Neil Mehta)。

So starting questions on Slide 12. I think you guys have made really good progress on getting the net debt down towards your targets. Can you talk about how you plan on getting towards that $5 billion number? It sounds like a lot of that's going to be organic free cash flow at this point. And then how that ultimately ties into your hedging strategy and leave in 2026 more open? So your perspective on how the two tie together.

從第 12 張投影片開始提問。我認為你們在降低淨債務、實現目標方面已經取得了很大進展。您能談談您計劃如何達到 50 億美元的目標嗎？聽起來其中很多現在都將成為有機自由現金流。那麼這最終如何與您的對沖策略聯繫起來，並使 2026 年更加開放？您認為這兩者如何結合在一起？

Yes. I mean, from where we sit today, we've knocked out our objectives, again, above that $3 billion to $5 billion range on the asset sales. So go forward, it's just free cash flow. We're being pretty patient right now. I think as you get into midyear, I think the market expects rig count to ramp up pretty rapidly. We just don't see that happening. When we think about what does it take to balance even '25, you probably need Haynesville rigs to get to 50-ish by midyear.

是的。我的意思是，從目前的情況來看，我們已經實現了我們的目標，再次超過了資產出售金額 30 億至 50 億美元的範圍。因此繼續前進，這只是自由現金流。我們現在非常有耐心。我認為，隨著進入年中，市場預計鑽機數量將會迅速增加。我們只是沒有看到這樣的事情發生。當我們思考如何平衡'25時，你可能需要 Haynesville 鑽機在年中達到 50 左右。

I'd be surprised if we get out of the 30s, personally. So we're, I think, between now and mid-summer, I think we're going to sit tight and be pretty patient. I think cal '26, look, I wouldn't be surprised a bit if you see a five handle on cal '26 full year pricing. I wouldn't be surprised if this summer, you see the same in 2025. So we're going to be pretty patient right now. And I think where we are with the balance sheet, with the rating agencies, with just our trajectory of free cash flow, I think we're in a perfect spot to continue being patient.

就我個人而言，如果我們能擺脫 30 多歲的年紀，我會感到驚訝。因此，我認為，從現在到仲夏，我們都應該保持耐心並保持冷靜。我認為 cal '26，看，如果您看到 cal '26 全年定價有五個手柄，我一點也不會感到驚訝。如果你今年夏天在 2025 年看到同樣的情況，我不會感到驚訝。所以我們現在要非常有耐心。我認為，從我們的資產負債表、評等機構和自由現金流軌跡來看，我們完全可以繼續保持耐心。

And then, Jeremy, your perspective on long-term gas was interesting, just the view that Qatar coming online and Permian associated supply could put a constraint on how high we go. So how do you think about -- but it sounds like that's a post '26 dynamic in some ways. So how do you think about potentially locking in the '27 plus to the extent that comes -- that firms up with the '26 curve? And am I reading your view right there that while there's reasons to be bullish on the intermediate term, there are some headwinds over the long term for global gas?

然後，傑里米，你對長期天然氣的看法很有趣，只是認為卡達的上線和二疊紀相關供應可能會限制我們的產量。那麼您怎麼看——但從某種程度上來說，這聽起來像是 26 年後的動態。那麼您如何看待可能鎖定 27 加上 26 曲線的程度呢？我是否理解您的觀點：儘管有理由對中期天然氣市場持樂觀態度，但從長期來看，全球天然氣市場仍面臨一些阻力？

Yes. I mean, I think your commodity team specifically, as everybody has done a phenomenal job, I think, outlining some of this in the more medium term. Look, none of that impacts 2025, '26 that we can see. I think you go pretty high over the next two years. Look, I think what happens beyond that is really a factor of what happens to US supply and what happens with Russia, Ukraine.

是的。我的意思是，我認為您的商品團隊，特別是每個人都做了出色的工作，概述了中期內的一些內容。但就我們所能預見的而言，這些都不會對 2025 年、2026 年產生影響。我認為在接下來的兩年裡你會取得相當高的成就。看，我認為除此之外發生的事情實際上取決於美國供應的情況以及俄羅斯和烏克蘭的情況。

I think there's a lot of noise going around right now about if there is a peace deal this year, what does that do to TF pricing? We don't really see a tangible impact to that. I think those fears are overblown personally. So I think there's still a pretty bullish case for European gas.

我認為現在有很多傳言稱，如果今年達成和平協議，這將對 TF 定價產生什麼影響？我們確實沒有看到這有什麼明顯的影響。我個人認為這些擔憂有些誇大了。因此我認為歐洲天然氣的前景仍然十分樂觀。

I don't -- I mean, you might see that Ukraine transit deal reinstated. You already have gas going through TurkStream. I don't see a real chance that Yamal pipeline through Poland comes back into service, and three of the four Nord Stream pipes are out of service.

我不認為——我的意思是，你可能會看到烏克蘭過境協議恢復。你們已經有天然氣經由土耳其溪輸送。我認為，穿過波蘭的亞馬爾輸油管不太可能恢復運營，四條北溪管道中有三條已經停止運作。

There's also some litigation where Gazprom owes $20 billion, $30 billion to a bunch of these European utilities. That would all have to be settled, too. That's something that US negotiators can't settle on behalf of Europe. So we just don't see that risk near term. So even if there is a deal, in terms of like balances and where pricing goes over the next 2 years, I think you might see some sentiment-driven moves. But fundamentally, I think pricing has a ways to run.

還有一些訴訟，其中俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司欠一些歐洲公用事業公司 200 億美元至 300 億美元。這一切都必須解決。這是美國談判代表無法代表歐洲解決的問題。因此我們認為短期內不會出現這種風險。因此，即使達成協議，就餘額和未來兩年的定價走勢而言，我認為你可能會看到一些情緒驅動的變動。但從根本上來說，我認為定價還有很長的路要走。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Maybe just sticking on the price discussion there but in a different way. Can you talk about how you view your stock as disconnected to the commodity outlook? Why not take advantage of that now and introduce the buybacks this year versus taking all the $2.6 billion to the balance sheet, given that you're 55% hedged and you kind of know what your cash flow is going to be this year?

也許只是堅持那裡的價格討論，但是以不同的方式。您能談談您如何看待您的股票與商品前景之間的脫節嗎？既然你已經對沖了 55%，而且你知道今年的現金流是多少，那麼為什麼不現在就利用這一點，在今年引入回購，而不是把所有的 26 億美元都放到資產負債表上呢？

Yes. I mean, look, what enables countercyclical buybacks is having a really strong balance sheet liquidity. We're coming off 45 days away from having closed almost $3 billion or $5 billion of transactions. So we still want to get the balance sheet down where we have closer to $5 billion of debt. I mean, if you think about even over the last three years, our stock has ping-ponged between $30 and $50. I mean, there's times over and over again to buy the stock back cheap.

是的。我的意思是，看，實現逆週期回購的條件是擁有真正強大的資產負債表流動性。距離我們完成近 30 億美元或 50 億美元的交易還有 45 天。因此，我們仍然希望將資產負債表降至接近 50 億美元的債務水準。我的意思是，如果你想想，即使在過去三年裡，我們的股價也一直在 30 美元到 50 美元之間波動。我的意思是，有很多次可以以低價買回股票。

Look, I think the stock has a ways to go in the next two years. It wouldn't surprise me, though. I mean, you always have something come up with where you see big pullbacks. I think we're going to continue to be patient. What we saw with that DeepSeek scare a couple of weeks ago is a perfect example of that. You can buy it back on some of those days. So look, we're going to be opportunistic. I think we're eyes wide open about the situation, the relative value right now.

看，我認為該股票在未來兩年內還有很長的路要走。不過這並不令我感到驚訝。我的意思是，當你看到大的回調時，你總是會想到一些事情。我想我們會繼續保持耐心。幾週前我們看到的 DeepSeek 恐慌就是一個很好的例子。您可以在某天將其買回來。所以你看，我們將抓住機會。我認為我們對目前的情況和相對價值保持著清醒的認識。

But I don't think you're going to see us rush out and buy our stock aggressively when we're setting new 10-year highs every day. I think our -- my comments in the earlier remarks, we're more geared at when you look at the embedded gas price in gas equities relative to where the strip needs to be in 2025 and '26. I mean, I think our internal view is you probably need to see $5 gas at least in those two years.

但我認為，當我們每天都在創下十年新高時，你不會看到我們蜂擁而至，大舉買進我們的股票。我認為，我先前的評論中提到，我們更關注的是，當你觀察天然氣股票中嵌入的天然氣價格時，相對於加薩走廊在 2025 年和 2026 年需要達到的位置。我的意思是，我認為我們的內部觀點是，你可能至少需要在這兩年內看到 5 美元的汽油價格。

Does it need to be at $5 forever after that? TBD. I think it depends on a lot of this AI stuff. But look, I think we're going to always be patient, opportunistic buyers of our stock rather than chasing a new 10-year high to buy it.

此後它是否需要一直保持在 5 美元？有待確定。我認為這取決於很多人工智慧的東西。但是，我認為我們將始終耐心地、抓住機會購買我們的股票，而不是追逐 10 年來的新高來購買它。

Got it. Well, maybe flipping that around a little bit. Given the success of the compression program and the well performance, could you use your equity to an advantage in acquisitions? And are there pockets out there offsetting you guys that maybe you're seeing well performance, like your old well performance that you can then put compression projects into to kind of get an uplift in as well?

知道了。嗯，也許可以稍微翻轉一下。鑑於壓縮計畫和油井性能的成功，您是否可以在收購中利用您的股權獲得優勢？有沒有可以為你們提供補償的資金，也許你們看到了很好的表現，比如你們以前好的油井的表現，然後你們可以把壓縮項目放進去，以獲得提升？

Yes. Josh, I'd say our approach towards M&A will still be disciplined in how we look at things. But one of the things that we're showcasing now is sort of the power of the platform with upstream and midstream and creating a real operational edge. Those edges will be used to look at offset operators and look for opportunities. But I'd say our framework is still in place and a disciplined approach still there.

是的。喬什，我想說，我們對待併購的態度仍然是嚴謹的。但我們現在展示的是該平台與上游和中游的結合所帶來的強大力量，以及創造真正的營運優勢。這些邊緣將用於查看偏移運算符並尋找機會。但我想說我們的框架仍然存在，我們仍然採取嚴謹的方法。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Toby, maybe to come at some of the other macro ideas for gas. We haven't thought of it in a while, which should be going north. Some signs that New York is recognizing the shortcomings in their gas market. We have obviously the President pushing to potentially move more gas into the Northeast. How would you look at that? And any thoughts on timing and magnitude like that?

托比，也許可以談談一些其他關於天然氣的宏觀想法。我們已經有一段時間沒有想過它了，它應該是向北走。一些跡象表明紐約已經認識到其天然氣市場的缺陷。顯然，總統正在推動向東北輸送更多天然氣。您如何看待此事？對於時間和幅度有什麼看法嗎？

Yes, I think you're seeing the impact of the new administration. If you characterize the administration in the past as being a little bit about energy subtraction, this administration has made it clear they're going to be about energy addition. And seeing pipeline projects, breathing new life into those with Constitution or even lifting the LNG pause, these are all signs that we're going to let market forces work in this country.

是的，我認為你看到了新政府的影響。如果說過去的政府專注於減少能源消耗，那麼本屆政府已經明確表示，他們將專注於增加能源消耗。看到管道項目、為憲法注入新活力甚至取消液化天然氣暫停，這些都是我們將讓市場力量在這個國家發揮作用的跡象。

And that's going to be key in letting the most affordable, reliable, cleanest form of energy natural gas meet those needs. Also, we're seeing some other dynamics take place in our backyard. PJM has just allowed -- put an order out to allow us to reshuffle more natural gas power plants come to the top of the queue. That's significant.

這對於讓最經濟、最可靠、最清潔的能源天然氣滿足這些需求至關重要。此外，我們也看到自家後院發生了一些其他動態。PJM 剛剛發布命令，允許我們重新洗牌，讓更多的天然氣發電廠排在隊伍的最前面。這很有意義。

And what hasn't changed is the fragility of these grids. I mean, there's a reason why this administration put a national -- called a national emergency largely about the state of the grid. We'll see those opportunities across the country, but we'll also see those largely in our backyard as well, especially given the proximity to the data center demand that's taking place.

但這些電網的脆弱性並沒有改變。我的意思是，本屆政府宣布國家緊急狀態是有原因的，主要與電網狀況有關。我們將在全國各地看到這些機會，但我們也將主要在自己的後院看到這些機會，特別是考慮到距離正在發生的資料中心需求很近。

Appreciate that. And then just a follow-up question on the opening comments about weather giving you the opportunity to open the chokes up, and understand guidance for the full year and everything, it doesn't sound like there's an issue. But just wanted to understand maybe to the extent you can provide a little more insight, opening the chokes, what does that do in terms of pressure management, reservoir management and your expectations going forward as we think about the, call it, plus or minus $2 billion of CapEx on an annual basis?

非常感謝。然後是關於開場白的後續問題，關於天氣讓您有機會打開阻礙，並了解全年的指導和所有事情，聽起來這並不是什麼問題。但是，我只是想了解一下，也許您可以提供更多的見解，打開節流閥，這對壓力管理、油藏管理以及您對未來的期望有什麼影響，當我們考慮每年增加或減少 20 億美元的資本支出時？

Yes. So I think one of the great characteristics of our business is the ability to respond to the current environment. You see what -- see our ability to curtail volumes when prices are low. Now you're seeing the ability to respond when prices are high. The dynamic at play here that gives us the flexibility to open chokes is the fact that we instill a managed choke program when we turn our wells back in line.

是的。所以我認為我們業務的一大特點就是能夠應對當前環境。你們看到了嗎——看看我們在價格低時減少銷量的能力。現在您看到的是當價格高漲時做出反應的能力。這裡發揮作用的動態是，當我們將油井重新調整為正常狀態時，我們會灌輸一個可管理的節流程序，從而使我們能夠靈活地打開節流閥。

So we have the capacity to have a few hundred million a day of production. I mean, that's sizable. So we look at that and our commercial team can call for that when they see market signals that -- and will respond to those volumes.

因此我們每天有幾億的生產能力。我的意思是，這個數字相當大。因此，我們會注意這一點，當我們的商業團隊看到市場訊號時，他們會提出要求，並對這些數量做出反應。

As far as a cost perspective, really, it doesn't cost us hardly anything to increase those volumes. We're -- it's as simple as just opening up the chokes for some of the newly drilled wells that are on that managed choke program. So it's really just pure upside from higher pricing and really the higher volumes that we're putting into the market.

就成本角度而言，實際上，增加這些數量幾乎不需要花費我們任何成本。我們 — — 這很簡單，只需打開一些採用管理節流閥計畫的新鑽井的節流閥即可。所以這其實只是來自更高定價和我們投放到市場的更大銷售量的純粹好處。

Yes, to provide a little more clarity on that, too, as it relates to just the total year, we have today about 300 million a day of extra gas in the market as a result of the open choke program. Into EGTS pricing, this week in Appalachia, I mean, today, it's about $6.30. So when we open those chokes, we're flowing directly into that market and selling at a significant premium. That's why we do that. So it's adding like real material value.

是的，為了更清楚地說明這一點，因為這與全年情況有關，由於開放節流閥計劃的實施，我們今天每天在市場上有大約 3 億的額外天然氣。關於 EGTS 定價，本週在阿巴拉契亞，我的意思是，今天，大約是 6.30 美元。因此，當我們打開這些瓶頸時，我們就會直接進入該市場，並以高價出售。這就是我們這麼做的原因。因此，它增加了真實的物質價值。

Now that said, when you think about the course of the year and the trajectory of production, I mean, like right now, it's probably the high point of production for the year. We pull that volume back in and then go back on managed decline. I don't -- I think when you look at where December production is versus this moment in time, we're down at that point just because we have so much of that volume opened back up right now due to how high pricing is.

話雖如此，當你思考這一年的進程和生產軌跡時，我的意思是，就像現在一樣，這可能是今年生產的最高點。我們將交易量重新拉高，然後回到可控的下降趨勢。我不這麼認為——我認為，當你將 12 月的產量與當前的產量進行比較時，你會發現，我們之所以處於下降趨勢，只是因為價格過高，我們現在重新開放了太多產量。

So we're taking advantage of it. I mean, again, we're in a price times volume game so we're maximizing productivity when we see the opportunities. But we're not exactly like ramping towards the end of the year. I think we're just taking advantage of high pricing when we see it.

所以我們要利用它。我的意思是，我們再次處於價格乘以數量的遊戲之中，因此當我們看到機會時，我們就會最大限度地提高生產力。但我們並不打算在年底前加大力度。我認為我們只是在利用高價來獲利。

John Annis, Texas Capital.

德州首府的約翰安尼斯。

Congrats on a strong update. For my first question, I wanted to touch on commentary provided on last quarter's call regarding the opportunity to complete 50% more footage per day in '25 versus the historical average. How should we think about what level of improvement above that 35% improvement from historical levels that was achieved in the second half of '24 is embedded in guidance versus what is potential upside?

恭喜您獲得強勁更新。對於我的第一個問題，我想談談上個季度的電話會議上提供的評論，關於在 25 年每天完成的鏡頭數量比歷史平均水平多 50% 的機會。我們該如何看待 24 年下半年實現的比歷史水準高出 35% 的改善水平，以及潛在的上行空間是多少？

Yes. I think the theme here for operationally really is going to be us continuing to push the pace on these operational efficiencies. We're going to be conservative in that. The other impact, I think, that's probably more focused on driving our cost down is just the impact of compression and allowing us to reduce the amount of horizontal footage that's needed to maintain production.

是的。我認為這裡的營運主題實際上是我們繼續加快營運效率的步伐。在這方面我們會採取保守態度。我認為，另一個影響可能更側重於降低成本，即壓縮的影響，它使我們能夠減少維持生產所需的水平鏡頭數量。

Yes, I'd say that the other thing, too, is a lot of that improvement is driven by logistics, and so things like expanding our water network and integrating fully with Equitrans and some of the legacy Tug Hill and Chevron systems.

是的，我想說的是，另一件事是，許多改進都是由物流推動的，例如擴大我們的供水網絡並與 Equitrans 以及一些傳統的 Tug Hill 和 Chevron 系統全面整合。

So the more we complete there and more throughput we add on the water side, the faster we can frac. Those sort of connections don't happen overnight so we're still working through that. In terms of where we could get to probably peak throughput, we're maybe even a year off from that still. So I think there's still improvements to make.

因此，我們在那裡完成的越多，在水側增加的吞吐量越多，我們的壓裂速度就越快。這種聯繫並非一朝一夕就能建立起來的，因此我們仍在努力。就我們可能達到峰值吞吐量而言，可能還需要一年的時間。所以我認為還有進步的空間。

And I'm hoping we continue to carry on the momentum we've seen in terms of just quarter-over-quarter improvements. So we have some of it baked in based on how we're performing today, but I think we're always continuing to try to push the envelope and build on that.

我希望我們能夠繼續保持季度環比增長的勢頭。因此，根據我們今天的表現，我們已經做出了一些調整，但我認為我們會一直努力突破極限並在此基礎上再接再厲。

Perfect. And for my follow-up, just building on the macro commentary in your prepared remarks, there seems to be a price signal in the strip that highlights the need for natural gas growth as the end of this year, if not sooner, yet the sector is largely in mode, knowing that it's just more than just price that you consider, could you just help frame how you as a management team contemplate the decision to potentially shift back to that sustainable growth mentioned in the presentation?

完美的。我的後續問題是，基於您準備好的評論中的宏觀評論，似乎有一個價格信號強調了天然氣增長的必要性，因為今年年底，如果不是更早的話，但該行業基本上處於模式中，知道這不僅僅是您考慮的價格，您能否幫助闡述您作為管理團隊如何考慮可能轉向演示文稿中提到的可持續增長的決定？

Yes, it's very simple. And to reiterate what we've said in the past is EQT will respond with growth but it's got to be sustainable, and that means we need to see demand on the other side of that production growth. I think the days of us just growing volumes into the commodity market because we see a good strip, we want to see a little bit more than that. We want to see demand on the other side, and then we will grow to make sure that demand has materialized.

是的，非常簡單。我們重申過去所說的話，EQT 將以成長作出回應，但成長必須是可持續的，這意味著我們需要在生產成長的另一邊看到需求。我認為，我們只是因為看到了好的地帶而增加了商品市場的交易量，我們希望看到更多。我們希望看到另一方的需求，然後我們會不斷發展以確保需求得到實現。

The dynamic that we have right now is going to present Jeremy and the commercial team opportunities to connect to that demand. And I think that will create the opportunity for EQT. And it's something that we're leaning to make sure we create and connect those opportunities. And I think our integrated platform is going to give EQT an advantage in capturing those type of opportunities.

我們現在的動態將為傑里米和商業團隊提供滿足這項需求的機會。我認為這將為 EQT 創造機會。我們正在努力確保創造並連接這些機會。我認為我們的整合平台將使 EQT 在抓住此類機會方面佔據優勢。

I think we're also seeing -- I mean, look, if you -- in conversations with other producers, private operators in the Haynesville, I don't think anyone cares anymore about a single well return. It just doesn't mean anything. And I have yet to hear from even talking to many privates that they really care about that anymore either. So I think that the focus across the board is more generally, what is my corporate return to my investors measured in actual free cash flow? Not EBITDA, not a single well return, but what am I actually able to deliver back through a dividend, through a buyback?

我想我們也看到——我的意思是，看，如果你——在與海恩斯維爾的其他生產商、私人運營商的對話中，我認為沒有人再關心單井的回報。這根本就沒有任何意義。而且我甚至還沒有從與許多私人的交談中得知他們真的還關心這個問題。因此，我認為大家更普遍關注的焦點是，以實際自由現金流來衡量，我公司為投資人帶來的回報是多少？不是 EBITDA，不是單筆油井回報，而是我實際上能夠透過股息、透過回購回報什麼？

And so I think a lot of producers, especially if you're in Haynesville, you're looking at this and saying, well, gosh, I need maybe at $5, it starts getting interesting and I can start thinking about making growth plans, but it's a lot easier. It's a lot more efficient. I can drive well cost down if I get into a cadence where I have larger scale operations like what EQT does. I think with combo development driving efficiencies. And look, at the end of the day, like we keep saying, it's a price times volume game.

因此，我認為很多生產商，特別是如果你在海恩斯維爾，你看到這個會說，好吧，天哪，我可能需要 5 美元，它開始變得有趣，我可以開始考慮制定增長計劃，但這要容易得多。它的效率更高。如果我進入像 EQT 那樣的大規模營運節奏，我就能降低成本。我認為組合開發可以提高效率。而且，到最後，就像我們一直說的，這是一個價格乘以數量的遊戲。

If we had not done the Equitrans deal, if we've not gotten those transactions done as quickly as we had towards the end of last year, we probably would have added another, call it, 20% of hedges in the back half of '25. We'd probably be about 30% hedged in 2026 today. That hedge position, if we would have put that on over the course of Q4, we'd be about $700 million underwater on that right now.

如果我們沒有完成 Equitrans 交易，如果我們沒有像去年年底那樣迅速完成這些交易，我們可能會在 25 年下半年再增加 20% 的對沖。到 2026 年，我們的對沖額度可能達到約 30%。如果我們在第四季度期間建立該對沖頭寸，那麼目前我們的虧損將達到約 7 億美元。

So there is so much more value to gain by just being flexible, having low leverage, being able to be -- have production available when pricing is there relative to chasing a price signal. When in reality, you put a rig out today, you don't see production until next year.

因此，只要保持彈性、低槓桿、能夠在定價時有生產而不是追逐價格訊號，就可以獲得更多的價值。事實上，你今天把鑽孔機投入使用，但要到明年才能看到產量。

I think everybody got snakebit in 2021, '22 when they tried to do that. And then you had a warm winter and an LNG facility go down, pricing fell apart. So I think everybody has kind of learned their lesson. I think everybody seems to have just stepped back.

我認為 2021 年、2022 年每個人在嘗試這樣做的時候都被蛇咬了。然後你經歷了一個溫暖的冬天，液化天然氣設施卻出現故障，價格就崩潰了。所以我認為每個人都已經吸取了教訓。我覺得似乎每個人都剛剛退後了。

And for us, we're just trying to run a good, consistent low-cost business. If you can put a rig out there in 30 days and capture a little bit of it, it could make sense. That's not really the game that we're playing. So look, I think you do see some rigs come back. But the best we can tell by -- I commented before, I think it's hard to even see the Haynesville getting out of the 30s in terms of rig count. I just don't really know who's motivated to add them at this point.

對我們來說，我們只是試圖經營良好且持續的低成本業務。如果你能在 30 天內將鑽孔機放到那裡並捕獲一點石油，這可能是有意義的。這其實並不是我們玩的遊戲。所以，我認為你確實看到一些鑽孔機回來了。但我們能夠看出的最好的情況是——我之前評論過，我認為從鑽機數量來看，海恩斯維爾很難突破 30 多座。我只是真的不知道現在是誰有動力添加它們。

Scott Hanold, RBC.

斯科特·漢諾德（RBC）。

Yes, I've got -- I'll kind of basket my two questions into one so I'll just ask it in one, and it's around well performance. Obviously, you talked about like compression helping and just seeing better well productivity. But can you give us a sense, as you look at your core inventory duration, like what is your confidence level on how far that goes out compared to others with all the upside you're seeing?

是的，我會將兩個問題合併為一個，這樣我就會在同一個問題中提出它，而且它與良好的表現有關。顯然，您談到了壓縮幫助以及看到更好的生產效率。但是，當您查看核心庫存持續時間時，您能否讓我們了解一下，與其他庫存持續時間相比，您對這一持續時間的信心程度如何？

And then kind of question number two on well performances. As you guys manage the chokes and pardon me for the way of saying this, but on and off, have you seen any change in well EURs over time? Has that had a positive or a negative benefit?

然後是第二個問題，關於表現如何。當你們管理好扼流圈並原諒我這樣說時，但時斷時續地，你有沒有看到 EUR 隨著時間的推移發生任何變化？這有正面還是負面的影響？

Yes, great question. And Scott, I'd point you to slide 7 as I think a very illustrative picture of the dynamic that's taking place, both with what's happening outside of our walls with our peers and what's giving us confidence in the quality inventory that allows us to say with confidence, we've got decades and decades of inventory. When you look at the chart on the left, you can see EQT sort of middle of the pack performance for wells put online in 2021.

是的，很好的問題。斯科特，我想給你看第 7 張幻燈片，因為我認為這是一幅非常具有說明性的圖畫，展示了正在發生的動態，既包括我們與同行在牆外發生的事情，也包括讓我們對優質庫存充滿信心的因素，這讓我們可以自信地說，我們擁有數十年的庫存。當您查看左側的圖表時，您會發現 EQT 在 2021 年投產的油井中表現處於中等水平。

But if you look at the picture, fast forward a few years later, you see peers' inventory degradation pretty significant. And I think this should be a concern for investors when evaluating companies is looking at the quality of inventory because as you see here with peers, those numbers are coming down. But one thing that's saying that's still shining is our EQT well performance actually is increasing.

但如果你看一下這張圖，快轉幾年後，你會發現同行的庫存下降相當明顯。我認為，投資者在評估公司時應該專注於庫存質量，因為正如你在同行中看到的那樣，這些數字正在下降。但有一件事仍然值得關注，那就是我們的 EQT 性能實際上正在提高。

And so from a reservoir quality perspective, we have a deep inventory. And then from an economic perspective, when you layer in the fact that we just pulled in all of these midstream costs from Equitrans, the ultimate, what we're looking for is not just high-quality reservoirs, high-quality economics and our inventory is deep.

因此，從儲層品質的角度來看，我們擁有豐富的庫存。然後從經濟角度來看，當你考慮到我們剛從 Equitrans 獲得所有這些中游成本時，最終我們尋求的不僅僅是高品質的水庫、高品質的經濟效益，而且我們的庫存也很豐富。

On the EURs question, I think one thing that we're looking at pretty closely on the impacts of compression is going to be, are we seeing just acceleration of reserve recovery or are we actually increasing EURs? I'd say initially right now, we're seeing size of this is just an acceleration but we'll keep an eye on that. And we do not anticipate any degradation on the enhanced -- removing the chokes on our wells when we flow back.

關於歐元的問題，我認為我們正在密切關注壓縮的影響的一件事是，我們看到的只是儲備恢復的加速，還是我們實際上在增加歐元？我想說，目前我們最初看到的只是加速的規模，但我們會密切關注。而且，我們預計，當我們回流時，增強的——消除油井中的阻流裝置——不會對油田造成任何損害。

On the inventory life specifically, we had done a deep internal analysis pre-Equitrans on this just so we could -- you see Enverus and others put out estimates. Our view internally was we had about 25 years of locations that we considered high quality, that we had more than a 50% working interest in. I think a lot of the numbers you see publicly are numbers where someone might have a 25% working interest. They count it as one of their locations and it's really not because someone else owns the other 75%.

具體來說，關於庫存壽命，我們在 Equitrans 之前已經做過深入的內部分析，這樣我們就可以——你可以看到 Enverus 和其他人給出了估算。我們內部的看法是，我們有大約 25 年的優質礦區，並且擁有超過 50% 的經營權益。我認為，您公開看到的許多數字都表明某人可能擁有 25% 的工作權益。他們將其算作自己的一個地點，但事實並非如此，因為其他人擁有剩餘的 75%。

So that was our threshold. Equitrans totally transformed that though because what then was Tier 3 inventory can become Tier 1 on an integrated cost basis. And then when you think about leasing because in Appalachia, there's still plenty of land to lease. If someone else wants to lease that land, they still have to flow through our pipelines or we can go at least the land ourselves. That's why we still spend, call it, $100 million a year in our budget on infill leasing because we're adding to that inventory and really replacing a lot of what we do every single year.

這就是我們的門檻。然而 Equitrans 徹底改變了這一現狀，因為根據綜合成本計算，當時的 3 級庫存可以變為 1 級庫存。然後，您會考慮租賃，因為在阿巴拉契亞，仍然有大量土地可供租賃。如果其他人想租賃該土地，他們仍然必須透過我們的管道輸送，或者我們至少可以自己去那塊土地。這就是為什麼我們仍然在預算中每年花費 1 億美元用於填充租賃，因為我們每年都在增加庫存並真正替換掉許多我們所做的工作。

So look, I think at this point, we haven't updated the analysis candidly since then, but I would estimate that added at least 10 years to it. So it's a level where that's before into leasing. So every year, we probably replace 70% of the inventory we develop with our -- with that program. So I think we kind of have a level of inventory. At least in EQT, we don't really have to think about it. And that well productivity is not only maintained, but as Toby pointed out, continues to actually improve due to the operational improvements.

所以，我認為到目前為止，我們還沒有坦率地更新分析，但我估計這至少增加了 10 年。因此，這是進入租賃之前的水平。因此，每年我們大概都會用該計劃替換我們開發的 70% 的庫存。所以我認為我們有一定水準的庫存。至少在 EQT 中，我們真的不必考慮這個問題。而且，油井的生產效率不但得以維持，而且正如 Toby 指出的，由於營運的改進，生產效率實際上還在持續提高。

Yes. The only point I would add is just the land replenishment. The dynamic that's taking place over the last few years, our land budget cumulatively in the past was majority spent on maintenance and a small portion on infill. Now that's flipped and the majority of our dollars are spent on infill leasing, which is adding new working interest, increasing adding to our inventory. And you can sort of see that on our budget slide, the dollar spent on infill versus land.

是的。我唯一想補充的一點就是土地補充。過去幾年發生的動態是，我們過去累積的土地預算大部分用於維護，一小部分用於填充。現在情況發生了變化，我們的大部分資金都花在了填充租賃上，這增加了新的工作興趣，增加了我們的庫存。您可以在預算幻燈片上看到，在填充和土地上花費的金額。

So we're getting, I'd say, more value creation out of the land that we're spending right now to promote that dynamic that Jeremy just discussed.

因此我想說，我們現在花費的土地可以創造更多的價值，以促進傑里米剛才討論的這種動態。

Jacob Roberts, TPH.

雅各布·羅伯茨​​（Jacob Roberts），TPH。

Maybe a clarifying question on 2025 capital. It sounds like the maintenance budget is somewhat of a function of some of the strategic growth budget, specifically the compression. So I was wondering if you could help risk to that number relative to those compression projects coming on stronger than expected or perhaps the other direction, given some concerns around lead time, delivery, and things like that.

也許是有關 2025 年資本的一個澄清問題。聽起來維護預算在某種程度上是策略成長預算的函數，特別是壓縮。因此，我想知道您是否可以幫助降低該數字相對於那些比預期更強勁的壓縮項目的風險，或者也許是相反的方向，考慮到對交貨時間、交付等一些方面的擔憂。

Yes. I would say that what we have in place for the compression plans follows our normal project management, operation schedule, type risking for when those turn in line. So teams have looked at that and that is baked into our plans. There's not going to be -- we don't anticipate a lot of flex in upside, downside on the impact of compression.

是的。我想說的是，我們制定的壓縮計劃遵循我們正常的專案管理、營運計劃以及當時的風險類型。因此團隊已經考慮到了這一點並將其納入了我們的計劃。我們預計，壓縮的影響不會有太大的上行和下行波動。

Like I said, we've already done a handful of pilots here and have a pretty good level of comfort on what those will do. And we broke -- one of the reasons why I think we broke out pressure reduction as a portion of our CapEx against of see that in our budget as well.

正如我所說的，我們已經在這裡進行了一些試點，並且對於它們的作用非常有信心。而且我認為我們將壓力降低作為資本支出的一部分的原因之一也體現在我們的預算中。

Okay, perfect. And then my second question, it looks like some midstream spend maybe fell out of Q4. I was wondering if you could frame -- is that showing up in 2025 or some portion was permanently eliminated based on what you've seen from the assets?

好的，完美。然後我的第二個問題是，看起來一些中游支出可能在第四季下降了。我想知道您是否可以推測——根據您從資產中看到的情況，這是否會在 2025 年出現，或者其中一部分會永久消除？

I'd say a little bit of both, the short answer.

簡短的回答是，兩種情況都有一點。

Michael Scialla of Stephens.

史蒂芬斯的邁克爾·西亞拉 (Michael Scialla)。

Wanted to ask about your 2025 plans, specifically the net TILs you plan in Southwest PA, it looks like 32 to 40. Were all of those intended to be in the Marcellus or any of those in the Utica? Just want to get your thoughts on the deep Utica returns, how they compete with the Marcellus at this point.

想問一下您的 2025 年計劃，特別是您在賓夕法尼亞州西南部計劃的淨 TIL，看起來是 32 到 40。所有這些都打算放在馬塞勒斯 (Marcellus) 嗎？只是想聽聽你對尤蒂卡深度回歸的看法，以及他們目前如何與馬塞勒斯競爭。

Yes. In PA, we have no deep Utica. West Virginia, I think we're finishing up a handful, less than 5. That is not going to be a core part of the program going forward. So some of that work was in West Virginia was finishing up some wells in progress that we had from the Tug Hill. We've had a good time to assess the competitiveness of those and feel at this time that the Marcellus is still the best investment opportunity for us. And we've loaded our programs with those type of projects going forward.

是的。在賓州，我們沒有深厚的尤蒂卡。西維吉尼亞州，我想我們已經完成了少數幾個，不到 5 個。這不會成為未來計劃的核心部分。因此，部分工作是在西維吉尼亞州進行的，完成了我們在 Tug Hill 正在建造的一些油井。我們有充足的時間來評估這些產品的競爭力，目前我們認為馬塞勒斯仍然是我們最好的投資機會。並且我們已經在我們的計劃中加入了此類項目。

It's an interesting point, actually, though, going back to the prior questions on inventory depth. When we talk about inventory, we just talked about Marcellus. You do have a lot of deep inventory out there. I mean, some of our peers are testing that already. I mean, some areas have really good results. That's all upside to what we talked about. We already have the infrastructure in place, too. So we don't need to drill that today. It's not as good as the Marcellus, as Toby said, but it's certainly upside for us.

事實上，回到之前關於庫存深度的問題，這是一個有趣的觀點。當我們談論庫存時，我們剛才談到了馬塞勒斯。你們確實有很多庫存。我的意思是，我們的一些同行已經在進行測試了。我的意思是，有些領域確實取得了很好的成績。這些都是我們所談論的有利面向。我們的基礎設施也已經到位了。所以我們今天不需要進行這個訓練。正如托比所說，它不如馬塞勒斯好，但對我們來說肯定是有好處的。

Got it. And I wanted to ask about slide 11 with MVP. Just curious, I guess my impression was that you talked about the capacity constraints out of Appalachia, yet MVP wasn't running at full capacity last summer. Can you talk about the reason for that? Was that just a function of demand? And what was the source of that incremental demand moving forward? And do you anticipate to flow that capacity going forward from here?

知道了。我想問第 11 張有 MVP 的幻燈片。只是好奇，我猜我的印像是你談到了阿巴拉契亞的容量限制，但去年夏天 MVP 並沒有滿載運轉。你能談談其原因嗎？這僅僅是需求的作用嗎？那麼未來這種增量需求的來源是什麼呢？您是否預計從現在起這種產能將持續成長？

Yeah. I mean, what we've mentioned in the past about MVP, up until the expansion that takes place on Transco, should be slated for, call it, '27, maybe early '28. Until that point in time, MVP is going to be more of a seasonal pipe and that's based off pricing in that area.

是的。我的意思是，我們過去提到過的關於 MVP，直到 Transco 上的擴展，應該安排在，所謂的，'27 年，也許是 '28 年初。直到那時，MVP 將更多地成為季節性管道，並且基於該地區的定價。

And I think you can see that dynamic play out in the volumes there. But I think it's pretty remarkable just to step back and look at this. There were people with this pipeline that questions the need of Mountain Valley Pipeline needed to get built.

我認為您可以從那裡的捲圖中看到這種動態的展現。但我認為，只要回顧一下，就會發現這是非常了不起的。有些人對建造山谷管道的必要性提出質疑。

And the fact that this thing is flowing over 2 Bcf a day, the fact that pricing in this area touched over almost $35 per million BTU is a signal that this pipeline was needed and there's dozens of other pipelines in this country that would produce a similar type story if they were allowed to get built.

事實上，這條管道每天的流量超過 20 億立方英尺，這一地區的定價接近每百萬英熱單位 35 美元，這表明這條管道是必要的，而且該國還有幾十條其他管道，如果允許建造，也會產生類似的效果。

Bert Donnes, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的伯特唐尼斯 (Bert Donnes)。

I'll bundle my questions for time as well. Just wanted to hit on the data center demand again. You mentioned the value of your IG rating, your inventory and as well as net zero status. Just curious if the hyperscalers are trying to get around maybe paying up for EQT premium assets and maybe thinking, hey, we can do a deal with maybe a consortium of E&Ps, each company taking a share of it and then maybe they -- those items matter less? Or is that not even in the mix?

我也會把我的問題集中起來以便安排時間。只是想再次討論資料中心的需求。您提到了您的 IG 評級、庫存以及淨零狀態的價值。只是好奇，超大規模企業是否試圖繞過支付 EQT 優質資產的問題，也許會想，嘿，我們可以與 E&P 財團達成協議，每家公司都分得一杯羹，然後也許他們——這些項目就沒那麼重要了？或者根本就不存在這種混合？

And then the second question would just be, are you leaning -- are the deals out there leaning more towards that premium to an index you referenced? Or is it more leaning towards the fixed price?

那麼第二個問題就是，您是否傾向於—那裡的交易是否更傾向於您所引用的指數溢價？或更傾向於固定價格？

Yes. I mean, I think that's a great question. And no doubt, EQT competes with every operator, every gas molecule that gets produced and we need to provide a differentiated option. But I'll tell you this, as Jeremy mentioned, there was a shift in sentiment over the last couple of months. I mean the event, if you ask me, this was Stargate coming out. I think a lot of tech companies looked at that announcement and got questions, where are you at with your power demand and meeting that?

是的。我的意思是，我認為這是一個很好的問題。毫無疑問，EQT 與每個運營商、生產的每種氣體分子競爭，我們需要提供差異化的選擇。但我要告訴你，正如傑瑞米所提到的，過去幾個月情緒發生了轉變。如果你問我，我是說這個活動，這就是星際之門的誕生。我想很多科技公司看到這個公告都會問，你們的電力需求狀況如何，如何滿足這項需求？

And I think a lot of people are frustrated in the progress and speed to market is a critical component. And so what's going to be faster, dealing with 15, 10, 5, putting those together or dealing with one? Dealing with multiple parts of the value chain or dealing with one?

我認為很多人對進展感到沮喪，而上市速度是關鍵因素。那麼哪個會比較快，處理 15、10、5，把它們放在一起還是處理一個呢？處理價值鏈的多個部分還是只處理一個部分？

We think that, that is going to be a great solution for our service providers for our data centers. And that -- those are the conversations that is how EQT will differentiate ourselves simple, one-stop shop, best, cleanest, most reliable, most affordable gas on the market.

我們認為，這對於我們資料中心的服務提供者來說是一個很好的解決方案。這些都是 EQT 的與眾不同之處，我們將提供市場上最簡單、一站式、最好、最乾淨、最可靠、最實惠的天然氣。

Perfect. And then the second part, just is it leaning towards a premium to an index or maybe a fixed price?

完美的。然後第二部分，它是否傾向於指數溢價或固定價格？

I think the beauty of the situation for EQT is we can offer both. We have offered both. Generally, when you structure that stuff, you have to price it at an indifference point. So there's a lot of different kind of flavors of that, that we work through with all of our end customers and the utilities we've already done deals with. So I think it's a little early to say but I think both are on the table.

我認為 EQT 的優點就在於我們可以同時提供這兩種服務。我們已經提供了這兩種服務。一般來說，當你建造這些東西時，你必須在一個無差異點上為它定價。因此，我們與所有最終客戶以及我們已經打過交道的公用事業公司一起合作解決了許多不同類型的問題。因此我認為現在說這個還為時過早，但我認為兩者都有可能。

Thank you. And with that, that concludes our Q&A session. We've run out of time. We thank you for your participation. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我們沒時間了。我們感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。