EQT Corp (EQT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

My name is Danica, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫丹妮卡，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the EQT Q3 2024 quarterly results conference call.

在此，我歡迎大家參加殷拓 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Cameron Horwitz, Managing Director, Investor Relations and Strategy.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係與策略部董事總經理卡梅倫‧霍維茲 (Cameron Horwitz)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining our third quarter 2024 earnings results conference call.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Toby Rice；和財務長傑里米·諾普。

In a moment, Toby and Jeremy will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow.

稍後，托比和傑里米將發表他們準備好的發言，隨後進行問答環節。

An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion.

更新後的投資者簡報已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中引用某些幻燈片。

A replay of today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening.

從今晚開始，我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的重播。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。

Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of the factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation, the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC.

由於昨天的收益報告、我們的投資者介紹、我們最新的表格 10-K 和表格 10-Q 的風險因素部分以及後續文件中描述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異我們與SEC 合作。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

Today's call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

請參閱我們最新的收益報告和投資者介紹，以了解有關此類措施的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務措施的調節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

這樣，我就把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝卡姆，大家早安。

The third quarter was hall-marked by the closing of our strategic acquisition of Equitrans Midstream, which transformed EQT into America's only large-scale vertically-integrated natural gas business.

第三季的標誌是我們完成了對 Equitrans Midstream 的策略性收購，這使得 EQT 成為美國唯一的大型垂直整合天然氣企業。

This combination has created a differentiated business model among the energy landscape, one that has leading inventory duration at the absolute low end of the North American natural gas cost curve.

這種組合在能源領域創造了一種差異化的商業模式，該模式在北美天然氣成本曲線的絕對低端具有領先的庫存期限。

EQT's position as the lowest cost producer structurally derisks our business in the low parts of the commodity cycle, while simultaneously unlocking unmatched upside to higher price environments by eliminating the need to defensively hedge longer term.

殷拓作為成本最低生產商的地位從結構上降低了我們在大宗商品週期低迷時期的業務風險，同時透過消除長期防禦性對沖的需要，為更高的價格環境釋放了無與倫比的上行空間。

We believe these characteristics position EQT to generate disproportionate value for our shareholders regardless of where we are in the commodity cycle.

我們相信，無論我們處於商品週期的哪個階段，這些特徵都使殷拓能為我們的股東創造不成比例的價值。

Since we closed the Equitrans acquisition, our integration team has been sprinting ahead with more than 60% of total integration tasks completed in just 3 months.

自從我們完成對 Equitrans 的收購以來，我們的整合團隊一直在衝刺，在短短 3 個月內完成了總整合任務的 60% 以上。

This remarkable pace is a testament to our proprietary integration system, which has been honed across multiple successful transactions over the past several years.

這一驚人的速度證明了我們專有的整合系統，該系統在過去幾年的多次成功交易中得到了磨練。

The highly efficient integration pace we've seen to date is resulting in synergy capture occurring quicker than we originally expected.

迄今為止，我們所看到的高效整合速度導致協同效應的發生速度比我們最初預期的要快。

Recall, we had previously assumed base synergies would start accruing by the middle of 2025.

回想一下，我們之前假設基礎綜效將在 2025 年中期開始產生。

But with our integration progress to date, we have already achieved $145 million of annualized financial and corporate cost savings which is $25 million more than our original underwriting assumptions.

但隨著迄今為止我們的整合進展，我們已經實現了 1.45 億美元的年度財務和企業成本節省，這比我們最初的承保假設多了 2500 萬美元。

Said another way, we have already derisked more than half of our $250 million base synergies in just 3 months of owning Equitrans.

換句話說，在擁有 Equitrans 的短短 3 個月內，我們已經消除了 2.5 億美元基礎綜效中一半以上的風險。

This rapid pace of base synergy capture along with longer-term system compression upside, further increases confidence in our ability to optimize value from the combined entities.

這種快速的基礎協同捕獲以及長期系統壓縮優勢，進一步增強了我們對合併後實體價值優化能力的信心。

We are also seeing Equitrans employees excited to be integrated into EQT's culture.

我們也看到 Equitrans 員工很高興融入 EQT 的文化。

This is a similar situation to what we observed when we took over EQT in 2019, where the cultural buy-in of our employee base enabled us to create more value than we originally anticipated.

這與我們在 2019 年接管 EQT 時觀察到的情況類似，員工群體的文化認同使我們能夠創造比最初預期更多的價值。

I'm extremely excited to see what the combined EQT and Equitrans teams can accomplish together over the coming years.

我非常高興看到 EQT 和 Equitrans 團隊合併後能夠在未來幾年共同取得什麼成就。

Alongside rapid integration and synergy capture, we are already unlocking operational efficiency gains as a direct consequence of the acquisition.

除了快速整合和協同效應之外，我們還透過收購的直接結果釋放了營運效率的提升。

An example of this can be seen in our investor presentation, where we highlight a new EQT record for water delivered to a well site.

這方面的一個例子可以在我們的投資者演示中看到，其中我們重點介紹了井場供水的新 EQT 記錄。

This record water delivery pace in turn facilitated another all-time EQT record for completions pumping time, besting our prior record set earlier this year by 10%.

這項創紀錄的輸水速度反過來又創造了另一個 EQT 完井抽水時間記錄，比我們今年早些時候創下的先前記錄高了 10%。

The pace of water delivery is a key factor in completion efficiency.

輸水速度是影響竣工效率的關鍵因素。

Put simply, the faster you deliver water to the well site, the faster you can frac, which in turn, drives down well costs.

簡而言之，將水輸送到井場的速度越快，壓裂的速度就越快，從而降低油井成本。

This record was only possible because of the seamless coordination of our now internal Equitrans water system with EQT's upstream operations, highlighting that optimization of the Equitrans' water assets has the potential to drive additional operational efficiencies that we could not have achieved standalone.

這項記錄之所以能夠實現，是因為我們現在的內部 Equitrans 水務系統與 EQT 上游業務的無縫協調，這凸顯了 Equitrans 水務資產的優化有可能提高我們單獨無法實現的額外營運效率。

We also recently completed the connection of EQT's water network in West Virginia with Equitrans' water system in Pennsylvania, which structurally improves our ability to deliver water to well sites.

我們最近也完成了西維吉尼亞州 EQT 供水網路與賓州 Equitrans 供水系統的連接，這從結構上提高了我們向井場供水的能力。

This connection should also save more than $70 million in water disposal costs over the next 2 years from an investment of just $15 million, highlighting an example of the type of low-risk, high-return investment opportunities that are unlocked by the acquisition.

這項連結還將在未來兩年內節省超過 7,000 萬美元的水處理成本，而投資僅 1,500 萬美元，這突顯了此次收購所釋放的低風險、高回報投資機會的一個例子。

Efficient water delivery along with various other supply chain initiatives are supercharging the recent completion efficiency gains that we highlighted with Q2 results.

高效的供水以及各種其他供應鏈措施正在推動我們在第二季業績中強調的近期完成效率的提高。

During the third quarter, we set a new EQT record for completion efficiency with footage completed per day averaging 35% faster than our 2023 pace.

第三季度，我們創下了新的 EQT 完成效率記錄，每天完成的素材平均比 2023 年的速度快了 35%。

The past 2 quarters of operational performance, along with our Equitrans integration momentum, are increasing our confidence in a sustainably faster completion pace, and we see the opportunity to complete 50% more footage per day in 2025 compared to our historic average.

過去兩個季度的營運業績以及我們的 Equitrans 整合勢頭增強了我們對持續加快完成速度的信心，我們看到了到 2025 年每天完成的鏡頭數比歷史平均多 50% 的機會。

With continued success, we may ultimately be able to drop from 3 to 2 frac crews over time, which is remarkable given we are able to hold flat 7 Bcf a day of gross operated production at this activity level.

隨著時間的推移，隨著持續的成功，我們最終可能能夠將壓裂人員從3 人減少到2 人，鑑於我們能夠在此活動水平下保持每天7 Bcf 的總運營產量，這是非常了不起的。

We are still quantifying the potential impacts to our capital budget, but we believe these gains could have the potential to sustainably save approximately $50 per foot, which could translate to $50 million to $60 million per year.

我們仍在量化對我們資本預算的潛在影響，但我們相信這些收益有可能持續節省每英尺約 50 美元，相當於每年 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元。

Shifting gears.

換檔。

We recently announced that EQT has become the first traditional energy producer of scale in the world to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions.

我們最近宣布，殷拓已成為全球首家實現範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體淨零排放的規模化傳統能源生產商。

Not only did we accomplish this ahead of our 2025 goal, but we achieved this net zero status across the entirety of our upstream operations, inclusive of the recently acquired Tug Hill, XcL Midstream and Alta assets, which were not included in the target originally set in 2021.

我們不僅提前實現了 2025 年目標，而且在整個上游業務中實現了淨零狀態，包括最近收購的 Tug Hill、XcL Midstream 和 Alta 資產，這些資產未包含在最初設定的目標中2021年。

This means that over the past 5 years, EQT has reduced total Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by over 900,000 tons, which is the equivalent of taking approximately 195,000 cars off the road annually.

這意味著在過去 5 年裡，殷拓已將範圍 1 和範圍 2 溫室氣體排放總量減少了超過 90 萬噸，相當於每年減少約 195,000 輛汽車上路。

The bulk of these reductions came from structural emissions abatement, including replacing more than 9,000 pneumatic devices shifting to electric frac fleets, deploying combo development and installing advanced emissions control devices.

其中大部分減排來自結構性減排，包括將 9,000 多個氣動設備更換為電動壓裂機組、部署組合開發以及安裝先進的排放控制設備。

For the remaining emissions that are not available with current technologies, EQT has generated carbon offsets through forest management projects as opposed to purchasing third-party carbon credits.

對於現有技術無法獲得的剩餘排放量，殷拓透過森林管理專案產生碳抵消，而不是購買第三方碳信用。

This was done via our partnership with the state of West Virginia and includes conservation management practices such as the removal of invasive species, wildfire risk monitoring and native tree and shrub placement, all of which have co-benefits for our local stakeholders.

這是透過我們與西維吉尼亞州的合作夥伴關係完成的，包括保育管理實踐，例如清除入侵物種、野火風險監測以及本地樹木和灌木的安置，所有這些都為我們當地的利益相關者帶來了共同利益。

These efforts are verified by West Virginia University, ensuring both economic and environmental benefits to the region.

這些努力得到了西維吉尼亞大學的驗證，確保了該地區的經濟和環境效益。

Over the life of this partnership, we expect to generate approximately 10 million tons of high-quality carbon offsets at a cost to EQT below $3 per ton, underscoring EQT's capital-efficient path to achieving net zero emissions.

在本次合作期間，我們預計將以低於每噸 3 美元的成本產生約 1,000 萬噸高品質碳抵消，凸顯了 EQT 實現淨零排放的資本效率途徑。

We believe EQT's unique position as the only vertically integrated low-cost natural gas producer with multi-decade inventory and net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions will continue to open differentiated ways to maximize the value of each molecule similar to the long-term supply deals we announced with utilities in the Southeast last year.

我們相信，殷拓作為唯一一家擁有數十年庫存和範圍1 和2 淨零排放的垂直一體化低成本天然氣生產商的獨特地位，將繼續開闢差異化的方式，以最大化每個分子的價值，類似於長期供應協議我們去年與東南部的公用事業公司宣布了這一消息。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.

這樣，我現在將把電話轉給傑里米。

Thanks, Toby.

謝謝，托比。

I'll start by summarizing our third quarter results.

我首先總結我們第三季的業績。

But prior to doing so, I'd like to note that results shown on our financial statements include Equitrans for 70 days during the quarter.

但在此之前，我想指出，我們的財務報表中顯示的結果包括本季 70 天的 Equitrans。

So we've also provided pro forma numbers assuming a full quarter of Equitrans results for the purpose of comparability to guidance and consensus estimates.

因此，我們也提供了假設 Equitrans 整個季度業績的預期數據，以便與指導和共識估計進行比較。

Strong well performance, continued efficiency gains and modestly lower-than-expected curtailments drove Q3 sales volumes to 581 Bcfe, or 4% above the high end of our guidance range.

強勁的油井表現、持續的效率提升以及略低於預期的減產推動第三季度銷量達到 581 Bcfe，比我們指導範圍的上限高出 4%。

It's worth noting that had we not curtailed, we estimate production would have come in at 616 Bcfe for the quarter, or 6.8 Bcfe per day, highlighting the true strength of our performance.

值得注意的是，如果我們沒有削減產量，我們估計本季的產量將達到 616 Bcfe，即每天 6.8 Bcfe，這凸顯了我們業績的真正優勢。

As it relates to curtailments, we have been taking a highly tactical approach over the past few months in response to the volatile gas price environment.

由於涉及削減，我們在過去幾個月一直採取高度戰術性的方法來應對波動的天然氣價格環境。

This strategy has allowed us to match supply with demand on a daily basis, thus maximizing our price realizations.

這項策略使我們能夠每天匹配供應與需求，從而最大限度地提高我們的價格實現。

Consequently, our differential for the third quarter came in $0.10 better than the midpoint of our guidance range at $0.65 per Mcf, underscoring how this tactical approach is creating value in real time without disrupting operations or impairing productive capacity.

因此，我們第三季的差異比我們指導範圍的中點（每 McF 0.65 美元）高出 0.10 美元，這突顯了這種戰術方法如何在不中斷營運或損害生產能力的情況下即時創造價值。

We believe these impressive results prove why tactically curtailing volumes in periods of weak pricing is the right strategy in a volatile world.

我們相信，這些令人印象深刻的結果證明了為什麼在定價疲軟時期戰術性地減少銷售是動盪世界中的正確策略。

The acquisition of Equitrans gives us greater ability to deploy this strategy as it eliminated 4 Bcf per day of minimum volume commitments, while simultaneously lowering cost structure to a level that we can maintain steady operations even in the low parts of the commodity cycle rather than being forced to slash activity due to high operating leverage.

收購 Equitrans 使我們更有能力部署這一策略，因為它消除了每天 4 Bcf 的最低交易量承諾，同時將成本結構降低到我們即使在商品週期低迷時期也能保持穩定運營的水平，而不是被由於經營槓桿過高而被迫削減活動。

Pro forma for the full quarter of Equitrans, our operating costs came in $0.05 below the low end of guidance at $1.07 per Mcfe due to production outperformance and LOE and G&A expenses below expectations.

預計 Equitrans 整個季度的營運成本比指導低端低 0.05 美元，即每 Mcfe 1.07 美元，原因是生產表現出色，且 LOE 和 G&A 費用低於預期。

Pro forma CapEx was nearly $100 million below the midpoint of our guidance range at $573 million, efficiency gains and lower midstream and pad construction spending accrued to our benefit.

預計資本支出將比我們的指導範圍中點 5.73 億美元低近 1 億美元，效率的提高以及中游和平台建設支出的降低為我們帶來了好處。

On the midstream side, pro forma third-party revenue came in at $142 million, at the high end of guidance, driven by better-than-expected uptime.

在中游方面，由於正常運作時間優於預期，因此預計第三方收入為 1.42 億美元，處於指導上限。

MVP capital contributions were $160 million, in line with expectations.

MVP 出資額為 1.6 億美元，符合預期。

Turning to the balance sheet.

轉向資產負債表。

Q3 was an eventful quarter with the closing of Equitrans in July.

隨著 Equitrans 於 7 月關閉，第三季是一個多事的季度。

As we discussed in our last conference call, ahead of closing, we negotiated an upside of EQT's unsecured revolver capacity from $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion.

正如我們在上次電話會議中討論的那樣，在交易結束之前，我們透過談判將 EQT 的無擔保左輪手槍產能從 25 億美元提高到 35 億美元。

At closing, EQT redeemed all of Equitrans' outstanding preferred shares followed shortly thereafter by the redemption of EQM's $300 million of bonds due in August 2024, saving approximately $50 million annually from reduced cost of capital.

在交割時，EQT 贖回了 Equitrans 的所有已發行優先股，隨後不久又贖回了 EQM 於 2024 年 8 月到期的 3 億美元債券，每年因資本成本降低而節省約 5,000 萬美元。

Yesterday, we announced the divestiture of our remaining non-operated assets in Northeastern Pennsylvania to Equinor for $1.25 billion in cash.

昨天，我們宣布以 12.5 億美元現金將賓州東北部剩餘的非經營資產剝離給 Equinor。

Recall, these non-operated assets came with our Alta acquisition in 2021, and we allocated approximately $1.1 billion of value to them at the time.

回想一下，這些非營運資產是我們在 2021 年收購 Alta 時附帶的，當時我們為它們分配了大約 11 億美元的價值。

Between asset level cash flows and the 2 transactions announced this year, we expect to realize approximately $3.6 billion of total value, implying a 3.3x return on investment since 2021.

從資產層面的現金流量和今年宣布的兩筆交易來看，我們預計將實現約 36 億美元的總價值，這意味著自 2021 年以來投資回報率將達到 3.3 倍。

We expect this transaction of Equinor to close by year-end, with proceeds expected to be used for debt repayment.

我們預計 Equinor 的此項交易將於年底前完成，所得款項預計將用於償還債務。

With this latest sale, we have now announced cash proceeds of $1.75 billion compared to our $3 billion to $5 billion asset sale target.

透過這次最新的出售，我們現在宣布現金收益為 17.5 億美元，而我們的資產出售目標為 30 億至 50 億美元。

We are simultaneously making rapid progress in our regulated midstream sales process, giving us confidence in achieving the high end of our asset sale target range by year-end 2024, thus de-risking our balance sheet several quarters ahead of schedule.

同時，我們在受監管的中游銷售流程中取得了快速進展，這讓我們有信心在 2024 年底前實現資產銷售目標範圍的高端，從而提前幾個季度降低我們的資產負債表風險。

Turning to hedging.

轉向對沖。

Since our last update, we have added a significant amount of hedges in the back half of 2025 to bulletproof our deleveraging plan.

自上次更新以來，我們在 2025 年下半年增加了大量對沖，以確保我們的去槓桿化計劃。

Post these additions and pro forma for the non-op sale, we are now approximately 60% hedged for calendar year 2025 with an average floor price of $3.25 per MMBtu, with color upside as high as $5.50 per MMBtu in Q4.

考慮到這些新增內容和預計的非操作銷售，我們現在對 2025 日曆年進行了約 60% 的對沖，平均底價為每 MMBtu 3.25 美元，第四季度的彩色上漲空間高達每 MMBtu 5.50 美元。

With our updated hedge book and low breakeven cost structure, we estimate EQT can generate free cash flow next year down to a NYMEX natural gas price of approximately $1 per MMBtu and generate nearly $1 billion of free cash flow at $2 per MMBtu Henry Hub prices, underscoring the unrivaled earnings power of our business in any scenario.

憑藉我們更新的對沖帳簿和較低的損益平衡成本結構，我們估計EQT 明年可以產生自由現金流，並將NYMEX 天然氣價格降至每MMBtu 約1 美元，並以每MMBtu 亨利中心價格2 美元產生近10億美元的自由現金流。

Beyond 2025, we expect to use commodity derivatives opportunistically rather than defensively as our position at the low end of the natural gas cost curve acts as a structural hedge, which in turn facilitates unmatched exposure to high-priced scenarios by limiting our need to financially hedge.

2025 年之後，我們預計將機會性地而不是防禦性地使用商品衍生品，因為我們在天然氣成本曲線低端的位置起到了結構性對沖的作用，這反過來又通過限制我們的財務對沖需求，促進了對高價情境的無與倫比的曝險。

Turning briefly to the macro landscape.

簡要地轉向宏觀景觀。

We have spent the last few quarters studying the power markets, which are awakening from two lost decades and becoming one of the most interesting corners of the energy industry with a direct impact on natural gas demand.

過去幾季我們一直在研究電力市場，電力市場正在從失去的兩個十年中甦醒，並成為能源產業最有趣的領域之一，對天然氣需求產生直接影響。

Over the course of this year, we have witnessed a reluctance to entertain the idea of gas power generation for data centers evolve into a widespread acceptance of natural gas as critical.

在今年的過程中，我們見證了資料中心天然氣發電的不願意接受的想法演變成對天然氣至關重要的廣泛接受。

At the same time, more than 80 gigawatts of coal generation capacity is scheduled to be retired by 2030 and nearly 200 gigawatts by 2035, leaving a hole in the US base load power stack that can only be filled quickly by reliable natural gas generation.

同時，預計到2030 年將淘汰超過80 吉瓦的燃煤發電能力，到2035 年將淘汰近200 吉瓦的煤炭發電能力，這給美國基本負載電力系統留下了一個缺口，只能通過可靠的天然氣發電來快速填補。

We expect natural gas to take 50% to 80% of new power generation market share as intermittent renewables are not suited for 24/7 reliability, and we believe there are just a handful of more nuclear facilities that can be restarted through the end of the decade.

我們預計天然氣將佔據新增發電市場份額的 50% 至 80%，因為間歇性再生能源不適合 24/7 的可靠性，而且我們相信到年底只有少數核設施可以重新啟動。

These dynamics are giving us greater confidence in our base case view that data centers and additional coal retirements will drive up to 10 Bcf per day of incremental natural gas power demand by 2030.

這些動態使我們對我們的基本情境觀點更有信心，即到 2030 年，資料中心和額外的煤炭退役將推動天然氣電力需求每天增加 10 Bcf。

Notably, this demand will be regional in nature with more than half likely to come from the Southeast and PJM markets.

值得注意的是，這種需求本質上是區域性的，其中超過一半可能來自東南部和 PJM 市場。

Given EQT is the only large-scale integrated natural gas producer with exposure to these regions, we stand ready to support and directly benefit from this megatrend.

鑑於殷拓是唯一涉足這些地區的大型綜合天然氣生產商，我們隨時準備好支持這一大趨勢並直接受益。

Turning to fourth quarter guidance.

轉向第四季指引。

We've made some modest tweaks to our prior outlook.

我們對先前的展望做了一些適度的調整。

We now expect fourth quarter production to range from 555 Bcfe to 605 Bcfe, up 7% from our prior outlook of 515 Bcfe to 565 Bcfe due to robust well results and less curtailed volumes than we previously expected, amid an improving Appalachia price environment.

我們現在預計第四季度產量將在555 Bcfe 至605 Bcfe 之間，比我們之前預期的515 Bcfe 至565 Bcfe 增長7%，原因是油井業績強勁，而且在阿巴拉契亞價格環境改善的情況下，產量削減幅度低於我們先前的預期。

For perspective, we estimate our 2024 production is tracking above the high end of our original 2,200 Bcfe to 2,300 Bcfe guidance range when normalized for curtailments, demonstrating the strength of this year's underlying performance before the impact of our decision to curtail production.

從長遠來看，我們估計 2024 年的產量將高於我們最初的 2,200 Bcfe 至 2,300 Bcfe 指導範圍的上限（在減產正常化後），這證明了在我們減產決定影響之前今年基本表現的實力。

Looking into 2025, we still intend to maintain flat year-over-year sales volumes pro forma the transactions with Equinor around 2,100 Bcfe and expect to pull back activity if efficiency improvements continue to pull forward volumes.

展望 2025 年，我們仍打算在 2,100 Bcfe 左右與 Equinor 的交易中保持同比銷量持平，並預計如果效率改進繼續拉動銷量，我們將縮減活動。

On basis differentials, we are tightening our fourth quarter differential guidance range by $0.05 to $0.50 to $0.60 per Mcf as Eastern storage levels have normalized, improving local pricing this winter.

在基差方面，隨著東部儲存水準已經正常化，我們將第四季度的基差指導範圍收緊，每立方英尺 0.05 美元至 0.50 美元至 0.60 美元，從而改善了今年冬季的當地定價。

Looking at operating expenses, we are lowering the midpoint of our fourth quarter operating expense guidance range by $0.05 per Mcfe, largely driven by higher volumes and lower upstream LOE and G&A expenses.

就營運費用而言，我們將第四季度營運費用指導範圍的中點降低了每 Mcfe 0.05 美元，這主要是由於銷售增加以及上游 LOE 和 G&A 費用降低。

Note, we reallocated some expenses within our GP&T outlook as we fine-tuned our pro forma accounting for Equitrans.

請注意，我們在微調 Equitrans 的備考會計時，在 GP&T 展望中重新分配了一些費用。

But this had essentially no net impact on our total GP&T expenses.

但這對我們的總 GP&T 支出基本上沒有淨影響。

On CapEx, as I mentioned previously, third quarter spending came in nearly $100 million below expectations, with part of this variance driven by pad construction shifting from Q3 into Q4.

在資本支出方面，正如我之前提到的，第三季支出比預期低近 1 億美元，部分差異是由於焊盤建設從第三季轉移到第四季造成的。

This shift, along with embedding some conservatism around non-op spending drove a $50 million increase in our fourth quarter capital guidance.

這一轉變，加上對非營運支出的保守態度，推動我們第四季的資本指引增加了 5000 萬美元。

That said, our total second half spending is still trending below the midpoint of guidance we put out last quarter by a net $50 million, reflecting the efficiency gains referenced previously.

儘管如此，我們下半年的總支出仍低於我們上季度提出的指導中點淨額 5000 萬美元，反映了先前提到的效率提升。

At MVP, we have fine-tuned estimates for slightly higher capital contributions to complete the right-of-way reclamation post Hurricane Helene and a slightly lower distribution in the fourth quarter, simply driven by payment timing.

在 MVP，我們對略高的資本貢獻進行了微調，以完成颶風海倫後的路權回收，並在第四季度略低的分配，這僅僅是由付款時間驅動的。

At recent strip pricing and pro forma the non-op sale, we forecast cumulative free cash flow of approximately $14.5 billion from 2025 to 2029 at an average natural gas price of roughly $3.50 per MMBtu.

根據最近的帶鋼定價和預計非營運銷售，我們預測 2025 年至 2029 年累計自由現金流約為 145 億美元，平均天然氣價格約為每 MMBtu 3.50 美元。

At $2.75 natural gas prices, EQT would still generate approximately $8 billion of 5-year cumulative free cash flow.

以 2.75 美元的天然氣價格計算，殷拓仍將產生約 80 億美元的 5 年累積自由現金流。

While at $5 gas, this number swells to almost $25 billion, which we can realize as we do not need to defensively hedge.

當 Gas 價格為 5 美元時，這個數字會膨脹到近 250 億美元，我們可以實現這一目標，因為我們不需要防禦性對沖。

There is no other natural gas business that comes close to providing the same combination of downside protection and upside exposure for investors.

沒有其他天然氣業務能夠為投資者提供相同的下行保護和上行風險敞口。

We believe EQT is now in a class of its own.

我們相信殷拓現在已獨樹一幟。

Our simple goal is to be the easy-to-own way for investors to gain exposure to natural gas, meaning if you're thematically bullish natural gas, whether it's because of coal retirements, power growth, LNG exports, dwindling core inventory, bearish oil prices due to OPEC oversupply or anything else, we are positioning EQT to be the go-to natural gas stock that is a through-the-cycle fixture of your energy portfolio.

我們的簡單目標是為投資者提供一種易於持有的方式來獲得天然氣投資，這意味著如果您主題看漲天然氣，無論是因為煤炭退役、電力增長、液化天然氣出口、核心庫存減少還是看跌由於石油輸出國組織(OPEC) 供應過剩或其他原因導致油價上漲，我們將EQT 定位為首選天然氣股票，它是您能源投資組合的整個週期的固定資產。

We see our story increasingly resonating with long-term investors, who trust we will continue to operate from the same principal framework that has brought us success to date, compounding cash flow year after year.

我們看到我們的故事越來越引起長期投資者的共鳴，他們相信我們將繼續在迄今為止為我們帶來成功的相同主要框架下運營，年復一年地增加現金流。

And with that, I will turn it back to Toby for some concluding remarks.

接下來，我將把它轉回給托比，讓他做一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

EQT today is operating at the highest levels of efficiency in history.

如今，殷拓集團的營運效率達到了歷史最高水準。

And quarter after quarter, we continue to break records.

每個季度，我們都在不斷打破紀錄。

We've built an unrivaled integrated natural gas business with key catalysts for continued value creation.

我們建立了無與倫比的綜合天然氣業務，並為持續創造價值提供了關鍵催化劑。

We have high confidence in the successful completion of our deleveraging program and continuing our long track record of delivering on our promises to shareholders ahead of schedule with better-than-expected results.

我們對成功完成去槓桿計畫充滿信心，並持續提前兌現對股東的承諾，取得好於預期的績效。

And with that, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

現在我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

道格‧萊蓋特，沃爾夫研究中心。

Gosh, you guys are moving quite quickly on this, and congratulations on what you've done.

天哪，你們在這方面進展得很快，並祝賀你們所做的一切。

But Toby, I guess, I -- we're never happy with the pace, especially given that you're moving a lot faster than perhaps you initially guided.

但托比，我想，我——我們對節奏從來都不滿意，特別是考慮到你的移動速度可能比你最初指導的要快得多。

So my question is, when I look at Slide 6, which is obviously your progress on the $250 million.

所以我的問題是，當我看幻燈片 6 時，這顯然是您在 2.5 億美元方面的進展。

And then I look at slide 25, which is the upside case to $425 million.

然後我看投影片 25，這是 4.25 億美元的上行案例。

How would you have us think about the timing and the risking of both those numbers, particularly the upside synergies from infrastructure optimization?

您如何讓我們考慮這兩個數字的時機和風險，特別是基礎設施優化帶來的上行綜效？

Well, I'd say we're ahead of schedule, both from a time perspective and realizing synergies that are a little bit greater than what we had anticipated.

嗯，我想說，無論是從時間角度還是從實現的協同效應來看，我們都比計劃提前了，這比我們的預期要大一些。

What's in front of us now really are the synergies related to the operational execution.

現在擺在我們面前的實際上是與營運執行相關的協同效應。

And those -- the pace at which we're moving in this integration being 60% through this helped to frame those up a little bit better.

我們在整合中的進展速度為 60%，這有助於更好地建立這些框架。

And Doug, those synergy capture estimates will be folded into our 2025 budget, which we're currently working through when we'll provide updates in future calls.

Doug，這些協同效應獲取預估將納入我們的 2025 年預算，我們目前正在研究該預算，屆時我們將在未來的電話會議中提供最新情況。

Okay.

好的。

Good stuff.

好東西。

Well, again, the pace seems to be certainly ahead of what you were expecting.

好吧，再說一次，速度似乎肯定超出了你的預期。

Toby, my next question is -- and my follow-up rather is a little bit tricky to ask.

托比，我的下一個問題是──而我的後續問題問起來有點棘手。

I'm not quite sure how to articulate it.

我不太確定如何表達它。

But if I look at the volatility of gas prices through the third quarter and then ultimately the way that you [bring back] volumes, I'm trying to understand how malleable the curtailment strategy is?

但如果我看看第三季天然氣價格的波動，以及最終[恢復]銷量的方式，我會試著了解削減策略的可塑性有多大？

I mean how easy it is to bring things on and off in response to pricing?

我的意思是根據定價來開啟和關閉東西有多容易？

What's behind my question is you no longer have any MVP obligations really as it relates to your ownership of E-Train.

我的問題背後的原因是，您實際上不再承擔任何 MVP 義務，因為這與您對 E-Train 的所有權有關。

So you have tremendous flexibility to really navigate around very short-term moves in price.

因此，您擁有巨大的靈活性，可以真正應對非常短期的價格變動。

Is that how we should think about this curtailment strategy or am I thinking about it the wrong way?

這是我們應該如何考慮這個削減策略還是我的想法是錯誤的？

Yeah.

是的。

I think it's really important to understand.

我認為理解這一點非常重要。

I think the dynamic that we laid out on slide 21, which is framing up sort of the natural gas market characteristics and how they've changed.

我認為我們在投影片 21 上列出的動態，它建構了天然氣市場特徵及其變化方式。

I think it was a really powerful chart that sort of supports the fact that we're going to be in a more highly volatile world going forward.

我認為這是一個非常強大的圖表，它支持了這樣一個事實：我們將處於一個更動盪的世界。

And the question that people need to ask is how are these businesses going to perform in this more volatile world where you're going to have lower lows and higher highs.

人們需要問的問題是，在這個更動盪的世界中，這些企業將如何表現，低點更低，高點更高。

The way that our business is going to manage in those low price period, there's really 2 things.

我們的業務在低價時期的管理方式實際上有兩件事。

It's the integrated nature of our business, which, as you mentioned, will give us tremendous flexibility by removing MVCs that we had in place.

正如您所提到的，這是我們業務的整合性質，這將透過消除我們現有的 MVC 為我們帶來巨大的靈活性。

So we've lifted a huge constraint and have more flexibility there.

因此，我們取消了巨大的限制並擁有了更大的靈活性。

But the other thing that's going to allow us to curtail that's equally as important is having a super low cost structure and that will give us the ability to curtail volumes and not have to alter or slash activity levels.

但另一件同樣重要的事情是讓我們能夠減少數量，那就是擁有超低成本的結構，這將使我們能夠減少數量，而不必改變或削減活動水平。

What that means is that when those higher price environments show up, we're going to be positioned to capture that.

這意味著，當出現更高的價格環境時，我們將能夠抓住這一點。

And we're not going to be sitting 6 months -- our production is not going to be sitting behind 6 months of restart.

我們不會等待 6 個月——我們的生產不會等待 6 個月的重啟。

It's something that we can turn on pretty rapidly.

我們可以很快地啟動它。

And that's a muscle that we've been flexing in the past, and it's going to be a muscle that's going to be really important in this environment that we're looking at.

這是我們過去一直在展示的肌肉，並且在我們正在考慮的環境中它將成為非常重要的肌肉。

Doug, if you look at Q3 specifically, we have been turning on and off up to 1 Bcf a day on a near daily basis in response to where pricing is.

Doug，如果你具體看一下第三季度，我們幾乎每天都會打開和關閉高達 1 Bcf 的電量，以回應定價情況。

That is really the reason we've realized that $0.10 better differential this quarter is just being able to tactically do that.

這確實是我們意識到本季 0.10 美元更好的差異只是能夠在戰術上做到這一點的原因。

Now I think in a low price environment, that's a great tool.

現在我認為在低價環境中，這是一個很棒的工具。

It's kind of like hedging kind of like basis hedging away.

這有點像對沖，也有點像基差對沖。

And when you look at that chart, Toby referenced on Page 21, 60% of the data points you see on that bottom chart are really below $3.

Toby 在第 21 頁上提到，當您查看該圖表時，您在底部圖表中看到的 60% 的數據點確實低於 3 美元。

So about 20% of those are below $2.

所以其中大約 20% 的價格低於 2 美元。

And in that environment, that's generally where you're going to see us turn volumes off because you just can't make money there.

在那種環境下，你通常會看到我們關閉產量，因為你在那裡賺不到錢。

The rest of that time, we plan to be supplying gas to the market.

其餘時間，我們計劃向市場供應天然氣。

And so it allows us almost delete the lows out of our sales volumes, but still be positioned to capture the highs.

因此，它使我們幾乎消除了銷售的低點，但仍然能夠捕捉高點。

And so if you look at the data shown there, the difference between the median and the average is over $0.80. And that's effectively the difference if you pursue the strategy we're pursuing, where you don't have to hedge away the highs, but you still are protected against the lows, you can curtail and you have a structurally resilient business.

因此，如果您查看此處顯示的數據，您會發現中位數和平均值之間的差異超過 0.80 美元。如果您採用我們所追求的策略，那麼這實際上就是區別，您不必規避高點，但您仍然可以免受低點影響，您可以縮減規模，並且擁有結構上具有彈性的業務。

At $0.80 for us over 2 Ts a year of production is a tremendous amount of value added certainly when you look out long term.

對於我們來說，每年超過 2 噸的產量為 0.80 美元，從長遠來看，這肯定是一個巨大的附加價值。

So it's very hard to model that.

所以很難對其進行建模。

I think the character of the market, as we keep talking about, as you and I have discussed a lot, is changing, and that's how we're trying to position.

我認為，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，正如你和我已經討論過的那樣，市場的特徵正在發生變化，這就是我們試圖定位的方式。

Guys, pardon the clarification and of course, I meant MVC, not MVP, I think you've got too many pipelines, I guess.

夥計們，請原諒我的澄清，當然，我的意思是 MVC，而不是 MVP，我想我認為你們的管道太多了。

But just to be clear, so when we look at the volatility intra-quarter, in your curtailment strategy, you have the ability to basically pick your spots and therefore, beat us on your basis differentials?

但需要澄清的是，當我們考慮季度內的波動性時，在你們的削減策略中，你們有能力基本上選擇自己的位置，從而在基差上擊敗我們？

Is that the right way we should think about it?

這是我們應該思考的正確方式嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

羅傑·里德，富國銀行。

Yeah.

是的。

I appreciate the clarity on the previous question.

我很欣賞上一個問題的清晰度。

I think a lot of us were trying to figure that out on the curtailment side.

我想我們很多人都在試圖在削減方面解決這個問題。

I think one of the other questions I have is early days, obviously, with the Equitrans acquisition.

我認為我遇到的其他問題之一顯然是早期對 Equitrans 的收購。

But as you think about synergies into '25, maybe a little bit of a -- what have you seen that surprised you so far?

但當你想到 25 年的協同效應時，也許會有一點——到目前為止，你看到了什麼讓你感到驚訝的事情？

What do you think it might take a little bit longer?

您認為可能需要更長的時間嗎？

And just trying to get an idea, we're used to companies setting a synergy target and outperforming it you think that's something that's likely to play out for you here?

只是想了解一下，我們已經習慣了公司設定協同目標並超越它，您認為這可能對您有利嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So the biggest thing for us operationally, which I think you have most of the conservative baked in, in the synergy estimate really is outlined on slide 26, the uplift we're going to see from compression.

因此，對於我們營運而言，最重要的事情（我認為大多數保守派都已經接受了）在協同效應估計中確實在幻燈片 26 中概述了，即我們將從壓縮中看到的提升。

It's important to note, when we framed up that synergy, we were assuming a 10% uplift from the benefits of adding compression.

值得注意的是，當我們建構這種協同效應時，我們假設增加壓縮的好處會帶來 10% 的提升。

And these pilots that we're showing here are showing that we're seeing nearly 2x that uplift.

我們在這裡展示的這些試點表明我們看到了近兩倍的提升。

So that will be helpful.

所以這會有幫助。

Timing on when we can get these compression projects rolling at a larger scale is going to be the big determining factor and the team has been hard at work, and we'll be putting those projects into our budget.

我們何時能夠更大規模地進行這些壓縮專案將是重要的決定因素，團隊一直在努力工作，我們將把這些專案納入我們的預算。

So timing and all of that will be framed up in our '25 budget plan.

因此，時間安排和所有這些都將在我們的 25 年預算計劃中製定。

Okay.

好的。

And then my other question is, obviously, things have gone fairly well on the asset dispositions, the non-op stuff you cited.

然後我的另一個問題是，顯然，在資產處置、你提到的非營運方面，情況進展得相當順利。

I think we've seen rumors in the in the press about MVP sale, if you're able to generate more cash just from operations in addition to the asset sales, what's the right way to think about how you would rightsize the balance sheet?

我想我們已經在媒體上看到關於 MVP 出售的傳言，如果除了資產出售之外，你還能夠從營運中產生更多現金，那麼考慮如何調整資產負債表規模的正確方法是什麼？

Meaning, how much of a premium would you have to pay on any of the debt to retire early.

意思是，您需要為任何債務支付多少溢價才能提前退休。

And I'm just trying to think about it as do you build cash, do you return cash and then pay the debt off in a more methodical pattern?

我只是想思考一下，你是否累積現金，回饋現金，然後以更有條理的模式還清債務？

No.

不。

We've been spending a lot of time on this.

我們在這方面花了很多時間。

I think we have a pretty efficient plan to eliminate the debt that we have in front of us and smooth out our maturity stacks, so I don't expect any sort of inefficiency to come out of that.

我認為我們有一個非常有效的計劃來消除我們面前的債務並平滑我們的到期堆棧，所以我預計不會有任何效率低下的情況。

I think it will be pretty straightforward.

我認為這將非常簡單。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

尼爾梅塔，高盛。

Congrats on making some progress around the asset sales.

恭喜您在資產出售方面取得了一些進展。

You mentioned in your prepared remarks you've been spending a lot of time in the power markets.

您在準備好的發言中提到您在電力市場上花費了大量時間。

Just curious what your real-time assessment is around the AI and data demand -- data center theme?

只是好奇您對人工智慧和數據需求（數據中心主題）的即時評估是什麼？

And how do you see that specifically in the Marcellus.

您如何看待馬塞勒斯的這一點？

Do you see a case for a step-up in-basin demand around data centers as well?

您是否也看到了資料中心周圍盆地需求增加的情況？

So just any real-time conversations, perspectives and a mark-to-market of your views as you guys have been on the forefront of this?

那麼，你們一直處於這方面的最前沿，是否有任何即時對話、觀點和按市場定價的觀點？

Yeah.

是的。

So we laid out sort of our plan on 16.

所以我們在 16 日制定了我們的計劃。

We're seeing between 10 Bcf and 18 Bcf a day of demand growth for natural gas due to power.

我們發現，由於電力的原因，天然氣需求每天增加 10 Bcf 至 18 Bcf。

Some of the real-time data that we're looking at, because this is the million-dollar question is AI, people know power generation is coming, what percentage of that is going to be natural gas.

我們正在查看的一些即時數據，因為這是人工智慧的百萬美元問題，人們知道發電即將到來，其中天然氣的比例是多少。

So like a lot of you, we're looking at the orders that are coming in for [nat], the gas turbines.

因此，像你們許多人一樣，我們正在研究 [nat] 燃氣渦輪機的訂單。

And you see one of the largest turbine manufacturers in the world, Mitsubishi, seeing a 50% increase in their orders.

您會看到世界上最大的渦輪機製造商之一三菱的訂單增加了 50%。

You see GE, compared to last year, their orders are up 90%.

你看GE，和去年相比，他們的訂單成長了90%。

So while this stuff isn't making the headlines of how much market share natural gas is taking, the orders are building up and strengthening that natural gas is going to continue to be the workhorse that adds a lot of this power demand.

因此，雖然這些東西並沒有成為天然氣佔據多少市場份額的頭條新聞，但訂單正在增加並加強天然氣將繼續成為增加大量電力需求的主力。

And just looking at the baseline of what we've done over the last 10 years, I mean, natural gas has seen power demand needs requiring 14 Bcf a day.

只要看看我們過去 10 年所做工作的基線，我的意思是，天然氣的電力需求需要每天 14 Bcf。

That's what we've done over the last decade.

這就是我們過去十年所做的事情。

Not a lot of people have talked about that.

沒有多少人談論過這一點。

That was largely driven by coal to gas switching, which is still a theme going forward.

這主要是由煤改氣推動的，這仍然是未來的主題。

And now you add on the power generation growth from AI.

現在再加上人工智慧帶來的發電量成長。

And it's not too hard to believe some of these numbers that we're putting forward.

我們提出的一些數字並不難相信。

Toby, we've seen nuclear restarts in PJM.

托比，我們已經看到 PJM 的核重啟。

We've seen some talk about license extensions on the nuclear side as well.

我們也看到了一些關於核子方面許可證延期的討論。

As you think about competition for that natural gas demand, how do you think about the alternatives, whether it's renewables or nuclear?

當您考慮天然氣需求的競爭時，您如何看待替代方案，無論是再生能源還是核能？

And how does that fit into the math for the TAM around this market?

這與 TAM 圍繞該市場的數學計算有何關係？

On nuclear, that was something we looked at what would be the other options like Three Mile Island that could come back online, keeping in mind, some of this power demand growth estimates is around, call it, 70 gigawatts to 80 gigawatts.

在核電方面，我們研究了其他選擇，例如三英里島可以重新上線，請記住，其中一些電力需求增長估計約為 70 吉瓦至 80 吉瓦。

Our view on this looking at similar nuclear facilities that would have the potential to add about 3 gigawatts of power demand.

我們對此的看法是考慮類似的核設施，這些設施有可能增加約 3 吉瓦的電力需求。

Relative to what's required, it's a drop in the bucket, it's not meaningful.

相對於需要的東西來說，只是九牛一毛，沒有意義。

And it still needs to happen, but the world is going to be looking for fresh, reliable, affordable energy sources and that's going to mean more natural gas.

這仍然需要發生，但世界將尋找新鮮、可靠、負擔得起的能源，這將意味著更多的天然氣。

And that's what we're seeing in the order books when people are looking to pick up these turbines.

當人們希望購買這些渦輪機時，這就是我們在訂單簿中看到的情況。

Jacob Roberts, TPH.

雅各羅伯茨，TPH。

I just wanted to see if we could hit on an early 2025 look.

我只是想看看我們是否能推出 2025 年初的造型。

But looking at Q3 and Q4, excluding shut-ins, I think the run rate is closer to [2,400], and should the market be thinking about slight declines in your production base in 2025, given the earlier comments kind of the [2,100] level net of the sale?

但看看第三季和第四季度，不包括停工，我認為開工率更接近 [2,400]，考慮到先前的評論 [2,100]，市場是否應該考慮 2025 年生產基地的輕微下降銷售淨值水準？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, I think from where we are within the year, I think we're in a peak time right now.

聽著，我認為從我們今年的情況來看，我認為我們現在正處於高峰時期。

So I do expect that to come up a little bit as we get into 2025.

因此，我確實預計隨著 2025 年的到來，這種情況會增加。

But I would say year-over-year, we see it as relatively flat growth on our remaining assets that we've not divested.

但我想說，與去年同期相比，我們未剝離的剩餘資產的成長相對穩定。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then lastly, I know the release noted the production and capital impact from the non-op sale.

最後，我知道新聞稿指出了非營運銷售對生產和資本的影響。

Should we be thinking about any changes to operating expense?

我們是否應該考慮營運費用的任何變化？

No, I wouldn't say materially at this time.

不，我現在不會說實質的。

Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

卡雷‧阿卡明 (Kalei Akamine)，美國銀行。

My first question is on operational synergies, water, in particular.

我的第一個問題是關於營運協同效應，特別是水。

Can you talk a little bit more about how putting water in the right places can help you drop one frac crew?

您能否多談談如何將水放在正確的位置可以幫助您放下一名壓裂人員？

Are you simply cutting the standby time?

您只是縮短待機時間嗎？

When could this happen?

什麼時候會發生這種事？

And what does the impact on capital look like?

對資本的影響是什麼樣的？

Yeah.

是的。

It's pretty simple.

這很簡單。

When we look at driving factor for completion efficiencies, it's the amount of feet we can frac per day.

當我們考慮完井效率的驅動因素時，它是我們每天可以壓裂的英尺數。

That is driven by the amount of hours that we're pumping per day.

這是由我們每天吸奶的時間決定的。

So we look at the NPT and when we're not pumping for us, a big part of that nonproductive time wedge was waiting on water.

所以我們看看 NPT，當我們不為我們抽水時，非生產時間楔子的很大一部分都在等待水。

We've eliminated a large part of that.

我們已經消除了其中的很大一部分。

So you take out a lot of NPT time, you replace that with pump time and your footage per day increases.

因此，您去除了大量的 NPT 時間，用泵時間代替，每天的鏡頭就會增加。

So if you can increase your efficiencies by 30% and you're running 3 frac crews, you've positioned yourself to get the same amount of footage and have 33% less frac crews.

因此，如果您可以將效率提高 30%，並且運行 3 名壓裂人員，那麼您就可以在獲得相同數量的鏡頭的同時減少 33% 的壓裂人員。

And that's what we're set up and monitoring to bake that into the '25 plan.

這就是我們正在設定和監控的內容，以便將其納入「25 計畫」。

From a cost perspective, that could translate to about $50 per foot of savings or roughly $50 million per year of operational efficiency value.

從成本角度來看，這可能意味著每英尺節省約 50 美元，或每年約 5,000 萬美元的營運效率價值。

And Toby, to clarify, is this in your synergy target?

托比，澄清一下，這是否在您的協同目標之內？

I guess from our perspective, it's hard to tease out with the synergy and with the natural evolution of your business.

我想從我們的角度來看，很難梳理出協同效應和業務的自然演變。

And I suppose over time that's going to get more blurry.

我想隨著時間的推移，這會變得更加模糊。

But just to be clear, is this in the target or is this separate?

但需要明確的是，這是在目標中還是單獨的？

That would be separate.

那將是分開的。

That was not included in our synergies.

這不包括在我們的協同效應中。

I appreciate the clarity.

我很欣賞這種清晰度。

The second one goes to gas balances, and I guess it's 2 parts.

第二個是氣體平衡，我猜它有兩個部分。

First, can you remind us on curtailments, how much you currently have?

首先，您能否提醒我們有關削減的問題，您目前有多少？

And how you're thinking about bringing that back when you look at the winter in-basin pricing?

當您考慮冬季盆內定價時，您如何考慮將其恢復？

And then on MVP, our understanding is that it can flow more fully in the winter, can you give us an idea what that looks like?

然後關於 MVP，我們的理解是它可以在冬天更充分地流動，你能給我們一個想法嗎？

And then what could that mean for headline in-basin production numbers?

那麼這對於盆地內的整體產量數據意味著什麼呢？

Yeah.

是的。

So on that first question of what we have curtailed, we've been fully online for several weeks, actually.

因此，關於我們限制的第一個問題，實際上，我們已經完全在線幾週了。

So I wouldn't expect when you're looking at your gas balances that EQT is bringing back an additional 1 Bcf a day, which we had curtailed at the peak.

因此，當您查看 Gas 餘額時，我不會想到 EQT 每天會額外帶來 1 Bcf，而我們在高峰時已經削減了這一量。

That's already back.

那已經回來了。

It's been back.

已經回來了

And so I think as everyone is trying to look at their gas models, I think that's a pretty important factor.

因此，我認為每個人都在嘗試研究他們的氣體模型，我認為這是一個非常重要的因素。

And look, we did that because the market showed that there is a need for that gas.

看，我們這樣做是因為市場表明存在對這種天然氣的需求。

It was above our price targets.

它高於我們的價格目標。

And so as you look at our improved guidance for Q4, a lot of that's because the assumptions we had previously made for curtailment in October just haven't played out.

因此，當你看到我們對第四季度改進的指導時，很大程度上是因為我們先前在 10 月做出的​​限電假設尚未實現。

We just haven't needed to curtail in response to what the market has told us.

我們只是不需要根據市場告訴我們的資訊而削減開支。

And so that's why you've seen that move up in addition to better well performance.

這就是為什麼除了更好的油井性能之外，您還看到了產量的上升。

And then on your MVP question, look, the assumption we are making is effectively that between December and February, MVP should flow at full capacity or near it, as you see that ARB open up, and there's that downstream demand.

然後，關於您的 MVP 問題，我們所做的假設實際上是，在 12 月到 2 月之間，MVP 應該滿載流動或接近滿載流動，正如您看到 ARB 開放一樣，並且存在下游需求。

So that's effectively what you'll see baked into our guidance.

因此，這實際上就是您將在我們的指導中看到的內容。

Dave Deckelbaum, TD Cowen.

戴夫·德克爾鮑姆，TD Cowen。

I was hoping that you guys could give a little bit of color and update around the regulated asset sales process.

我希望你們能夠圍繞著受監管的資產銷售流程提供一些色彩和更新。

Just given the success of the non-op now, how do you think about time line?

鑑於現在非手術的成功，您如何看待時間軸？

I know that you have a year end '25 debt target.

我知道你們有 25 年末的債務目標。

So presumably, I guess, you have roughly, I guess, 15 months or so before we get down to that level.

因此，我想，在我們達到這個水平之前，大概還有 15 個月左右的時間。

Is this something you want to get done sooner than later?

這是您希望儘早完成的事情嗎？

And then as you think about selling those, a portion of those assets, is there a right ownership percentage that you would like to retain outside of just a controlling stake?

然後，當您考慮出售這些資產的一部分時，您是否希望在控股權之外保留適當的所有權比例？

Look, I think we've provided a pretty good clarity of the structure that we're pursuing in prior calls, we've been pretty open about that.

聽著，我認為我們已經非常清楚地描述了我們在之前的電話會議中所追求的結構，我們對此非常開放。

I don't think there was going to be a deviation from what we outlined previously.

我認為這不會與我們之前概述的內容有任何偏差。

There's been robust interest, and I'd say the cost of capital that we are seeing has exceeded our expectations.

人們的興趣很濃厚，我想說我們看到的資本成本超出了我們的預期。

I think the quantity of capital that investors have to put towards scarce high-quality natural gas pipes like this is above expectations.

我認為投資者在這樣稀缺的優質天然氣管道上投入的資金量超出了預期。

And I think that's really pushing forward our expectations like we said in the prepared remarks, of when a deal gets done.

我認為這確實推動了我們對協議何時達成的預期，就像我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣。

But beyond that, look, we're in discussions with parties.

但除此之外，我們正在與各方進行討論。

We're working through that.

我們正在解決這個問題。

We hope it's sooner than later, but it's certainly above our original -- or ahead of our original expectations, which initially we had pegged to be in the first half of next year.

我們希望它早點到來，但它肯定高於我們最初的預期，或者提前於我們最初的預期，我們最初預計是在明年上半年。

Now we expect that to probably get done before the end of this year.

現在我們預計這可能會在今年年底前完成。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

If I could just ask one more.

如果我能再問一個就好了。

Obviously, I know the industry is focused on this AI power generation thematic.

顯然，我知道業界正在關注人工智慧發電主題。

And you talked about, obviously, the regionalization of demand, with a lot of that proliferating in the Southeast where EQT has a ton of egress via MVP and expansion.

顯然，您談到了需求的區域化，其中許多需求在東南部激增，EQT 透過 MVP 和擴張獲得了大量出口。

I know that you guys have already guided to obviously benefiting from the firm demand contracts that you have in place in late '27 with the Transco expansion with utilities.

我知道你們已經從 27 年底與公用事業公司的 Transco 擴張中簽訂的堅定需求合約中明顯受益。

As we think about AI and its commercial impact to EQT, you talked about benefiting from this directly.

當我們思考人工智慧及其對 EQT 的商業影響時，您談到了直接從中受益。

Sort of what is like the remaining quantum if you see this proliferation in the Southeast of how much more we could see contracted on top of those firm sales?

如果你看到東南部的這種擴散，除了這些堅定的銷售之外，我們還能看到多少合約？

And is this something that is much more of a 2030 and is beyond expectation?

這是否更像是 2030 年的事情，超出了預期？

Or should we expect potential for incremental basis improvement between now and the end of the decade?

或者我們應該期待從現在到本世紀末逐步改善基礎的潛力？

Yeah, great question.

是的，很好的問題。

So in our view, Appalachian demand would include what is taken or really exported out of basin plus in-basin demand.

因此，我們認為，阿巴拉契亞需求將包括流域外的取得或實際出口加上流域內的需求。

We think between now and the end of this decade, that should increase to -- from about 35 Bcf, 36 Bcf a day to about 42 Bcf.

我們認為從現在到本十年末，這一數字應該會增加到——從每天約 35 Bcf、36 Bcf 增加到約 42 Bcf。

So effectively adding a whole another EQT in terms of demand I think that is overlooked in many ways.

因此，在需求方面有效地添加了另一個 EQT，我認為這在很多方面都被忽略了。

And really, in our assumption, no new pipes are getting built aside from the expansion we expect to pursue on MVP through the compression that we've talked about previously.

事實上，在我們的假設中，除了我們希望透過我們之前討論過的壓縮來實現 MVP 的擴展之外，不會建造任何新管道。

Beyond that, it's really in-basin demand.

除此之外，這確實是盆地內的需求。

And when we step back and think about how does that play out and impact our business, it's either one of 2 ways and it's probably a combination of both.

當我們退後一步思考這將如何發揮作用並影響我們的業務時，它是兩種方式之一，也可能是兩者的結合。

One, we think it tightens in-basin differentials but it also allows us to grow.

第一，我們認為它縮小了流域內的差異，但也讓我們能夠成長。

So we're really a price times volume business.

所以我們確實是一家價格乘以數量的企業。

We expect to see benefits on both sides of that.

我們期望看到雙方都受益。

And now in our new integrated business model, we effectively control a lot of the toll roads in the basin, we expect to be the one to probably disproportionately benefit from that growth where we can connect our low-cost decades of supply to those different sources of demand as they come online.

現在，在我們新的綜合業務模式中，我們有效地控制了流域內的許多收費公路，我們希望能夠從這種增長中獲得不成比例的收益，我們可以將數十年的低成本供應與這些不同的來源連結起來當他們上線時的需求。

So that's something that we're hyper focused on.

所以這是我們非常關注的事情。

It's one of the reasons we haven't gone out to other plays, because we do see that backdrop playing out in Appalachia.

這也是我們沒有去看其他戲劇的原因之一，因為我們確實看到阿巴拉契亞的背景正在上演。

And I think we're as well positioned as anybody to benefit from that.

我認為我們和任何人一樣都可以從中受益。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

喬許·西爾弗斯坦，瑞銀集團。

Last quarter, you talked about an initial outlook for spending next year around the $2.3 billion to $2.6 billion range.

上個季度，您談到了明年支出在 23 億至 26 億美元範圍內的初步前景。

Given the efficiency gains that you guys have seen this year, the non-op sale and then a pending midstream sale, are you thinking that the lower end of that range is now more likely relative to the initial use?

考慮到您今年看到的效率提升、非營運銷售以及待定的中游銷售，您是否認為相對於最初使用，該範圍的下限現在更有可能？

So if you're at a high level, kind of bridge that, and just start with the midpoint for ease of discussion, the midpoint of that range we gave out was $2.45 billion.

因此，如果您處於較高水平，可以從中間點開始，以便於討論，我們給出的範圍的中間點是 24.5 億美元。

The non-op sale removes about $75 million out of 2025 and the efficiency gains we referenced in prepared remarks, we equated to about $50 million of additional savings beyond what we had assumed at the time.

非營運銷售將在 2025 年減少約 7500 萬美元，而我們在準備好的評論中提到的效率提升相當於比我們當時的假設額外節省了約 5000 萬美元。

So I would expect that to probably be toward the lower end of that range at this point in time.

因此，我預計此時可能會接近該範圍的下限。

But look, we're still working through it to figure out exactly how we might even put some of those savings into accelerating some of the midstream synergies.

但看，我們仍在努力解決這個問題，以弄清楚我們如何將其中一些節省的資金用於加速一些中游協同效應。

So it's a work in process, but I'd say directionally, things are moving the positive side of that range that we looked at previously.

所以這是一項正在進行的工作，但我想說的是，從方向上來說，事情正在朝著我們之前看到的範圍的積極方向發展。

Got it.

知道了。

And sorry to come back to the curtailments.

很抱歉回到削減的問題。

But I'm curious what specifically in the markets you guys see to bring back all of your volumes that were previously curtailed.

但我很好奇你們在市場上具體看到了什麼可以恢復之前被削減的所有銷售量。

Henry Hub in the fourth quarter pricing is lower versus when you announced the 45 Bcf of expected curtailments for the fourth quarter.

亨利中心第四季的定價低於您宣布第四季度預期削減 45 Bcf 時的價格。

Is it something in Appalachia?

這是阿巴拉契亞的事嗎？

Or is there something else?

或是還有別的什麼嗎？

What is it that you guys are looking at that we should be thinking about going forward to kind of adjust our quarterly numbers for you guys?

你們正在關注什麼，我們應該考慮為你們調整我們的季度數據？

Yeah.

是的。

So all the volumes we curtail are volumes that we are selling into the Appalachian market.

因此，我們削減的所有銷售量都是我們銷往阿巴拉契亞市場的銷售量。

Those are in excess beyond what we have had without a basin.

這些都超出了我們沒有盆子的情況。

So the number we're looking at in Appalachia is about $1.50 at M2.

因此，我們在阿巴拉契亞 M2 看到的數字約為 1.50 美元。

So when you see M2 above that, you should assume we're generally going to be flowing at full capacity when it dips below that, you'll see us pull volumes off the market.

因此，當您看到 M2 高於該水平時，您應該假設我們通常會滿載流動，而當它跌破該水平時，您會看到我們將交易量從市場上撤出。

In that at a high level is really our cash costs, excluding the sort of integrated midstream payments we pay ourselves plus F&D, about that $1.50 level.

在這個高水準上，實際上是我們的現金成本，不包括我們自己支付的綜合中游付款加上 F&D，大約是 1.50 美元的水平。

And so when you kind of put that all together and think about what it means for the gas market, I think there's kind of 3 bands of the way you'll see the market evolve over the next 12 months, call it.

因此，當您將所有這些放在一起並思考這對天然氣市場意味著什麼時，我認為您將看到未來 12 個月市場發展的 3 個階段，稱之為。

I think you will continue to sort of ping pong between $2 and $3 until all curtailments are back online, because as you approach $3, all of that should come back online.

我認為你將繼續在 2 美元和 3 美元之間打乒乓球，直到所有削減都恢復在線，因為當你接近 3 美元時，所有這些都應該恢復在線。

I think there's a second band between probably $3 and $3.50 where you see some of the short-cycle DUCs and deferred TILs sitting out there, that some of our peers have.

我認為第二個區間可能在 3 美元到 3.50 美元之間，你會看到我們的一些同行擁有的一些短週期 DUC 和延期 TIL。

I would expect that's the band with some of that starts coming online.

我希望這支樂團的一些作品會開始上線。

So you see that additional resistance level.

所以你會看到額外的阻力位。

But I think once you get beyond that, you need to have real activity, and there's a delayed effect to that as we saw on the downside, there's delayed effect of production falling, which is a delayed effect to production resuming growth when activity is added.

但我認為一旦超出這個範圍，就需要有真正的活動，正如我們在下行方面看到的那樣，這會產生延遲效應，即產量下降的延遲效應，這是當活動增加時對生產恢復增長的延遲效應。

And I think the longer production stays down where it is, the more difficult it's going to be to bring it back.

我認為產量保持在原地的時間越長，恢復起來就越困難。

So going back to that slide 21 that we referenced, I think we're likely to sit kind of at that below $3 level.

回到我們提到的幻燈片 21，我認為我們可能會處於低於 3 美元的水平。

And so you see a lot of this production back.

所以你會看到很多這樣的作品回來了。

And very quickly, you're going to snap towards the high end of that level as you get towards the back half of 2025 and into 2026, which is also why we've hedged the way we have.

很快，當您進入 2025 年下半年和 2026 年時，您將迅速邁向該水平的高端，這也是我們採取對沖方式的原因。

We remain unhedged in 2026 and highly exposed in Q4 next year.

我們在 2026 年仍然沒有對沖，並在明年第四季面臨高度風險。

But I think it is going to be a path to get back to that level, just putting aside how winter goes, which is hard to predict.

但我認為這將是回到那個水平的一條途徑，只要不考慮冬天如何發展，這是很難預測的。

Bert Donnes, Truist Securities.

伯特‧多尼斯 (Bert Donnes)，Truist 證券公司。

You mentioned that the production should be kind of directionally flattish on the remaining upstream assets.

您提到剩餘上游資產的產量應該在方向上持平。

Historically, though, we've seen some operators attempt to take advantage of shoulder months and shape their production.

不過，從歷史上看，我們看到一些業者試圖利用平月的優勢來調整他們的生產。

Should we expect to see that come about naturally as you use curtailments throughout the year next year?

當您明年全年使用限電措施時，我們是否應該期望看到這種情況自然發生？

Or is that strategy just not viable anymore because of the loss in efficiencies when you try to bring all those wells on at once?

或者，當您嘗試同時啟動所有這些油井時，由於效率損失，該策略是否不再可行？

Yeah, that's never really been our strategy.

是的，這從來就不是我們的策略。

I mean we've always really focused on really the most efficient way to operate and execute, which is not really the start soft nature of operations cadence, which you need to execute to pursue that strategy.

我的意思是，我們一直真正專注於最有效的營運和執行方式，這並不是營運節奏的軟啟動本質，您需要執行它來追求該策略。

So I don't think at least from EQT, you're going to see that sort of seasonal up and down that you see in the market more broadly or out of Appalachia more broadly.

因此，我認為至少從殷拓來看，您不會看到更廣泛的市場或更廣泛的阿巴拉契亞地區出現的那種季節性上漲和下跌。

I think for us, we try to run that pretty consistently.

我認為對我們來說，我們努力保持一致。

You will see like in Q3 this year, there are some quarters that will be higher than others, but year-over-year, you should expect that to be pretty flat until there's a real need in the market for that production, which I think you'll see in terms of Henry Hub pricing rising and local basis being relatively tight.

你會看到，就像今年第三季度一樣，有些季度會高於其他季度，但與去年同期相比，你應該預計這一數字將相當平穩，直到市場真正需要該產品，我認為您會看到亨利中心的定價上漲，而當地基差相對緊張。

Makes sense.

有道理。

And then this one a little more pointed.

然後這個更尖銳一些。

On the timing of the asset sale, obviously, you got a pretty strong price on the non-op.

顯然，在資產出售的時機上，非操作資產的價格相當強勁。

But we've got a few questions on maybe selling assets with low capital requirements during lower near-term gas pricing.

但我們對在近期天然氣定價較低期間出售資本要求較低的資產有一些疑問。

So maybe you could talk about how do you balance selling assets versus achieving your leverage target or maybe your buyers just willing to look past near-term gas prices, and we should all just -- everybody started looking at '26 when they deal with A&D?

因此，也許您可以談論如何平衡出售資產與實現槓桿目標，或者您的買家可能只是願意考慮過去的近期天然氣價格，我們都應該 - 每個人在處理 A&D 時都開始關注 '26 ？

Yeah.

是的。

I'd characterize at least in our view the assets we sold this way, under how we would have underwrote it, we still see it as a 3P PV10 before tax type value at about $3.50 gas.

至少在我們看來，我們以這種方式出售的資產的特徵是，在我們如何承保它的情況下，我們仍然將其視為稅前 3P PV10 類型的價值約為 3.50 美元的汽油。

So we felt like despite where the prompt prices on the strip, we have pretty good value for it.

因此，我們覺得儘管地帶上的價格很優惠，但我們還是物有所值的。

And that include value for the Upper Marcellus which we think Northeast Pennsylvania in the next couple of years is going to be predominantly driven by Upper Marcellus development.

其中包括上馬塞勒斯的價值，我們認為未來幾年賓州東北部將主要由上馬塞勒斯的開發所驅動。

There's just not a lot of core lower left.

左下角沒有太多核心。

And so I think for us, we're really happy with it on just an intrinsic value basis.

所以我認為對我們來說，僅僅從內在價值的角度來看，我們真的很滿意。

And taking those assets specifically, the next 5 years, we estimated would generate about $250 million -- or sorry, $750 million of free cash.

具體以這些資產為例，我們估計未來 5 年將產生約 2.5 億美元——或者抱歉，7.5 億美元的自由現金。

We received $1.25 billion right now without the effect of discounting.

在沒有折扣的情況下，我們現在收到了 12.5 億美元。

So again, we feel like really no matter how you cut it, the valuation is pretty strong.

所以，我們再次覺得，無論你如何削減，估值都相當強勁。

If you compare to the deal that we did also with Equinor, 6 months prior, you had 2 real differences.

如果與 6 個月前我們與 Equinor 達成的交易進行比較，您會發現兩個真正的差異。

One, the back end of the curve has come down probably $0.50. So that impacts value.

第一，曲線後端可能下降了 0.50 美元。所以這會影響價值。

The prior deal also had asset swap component.

之前的交易還包含資產互換部分。

So that obviously muddies it a little bit.

所以這顯然有點混亂了。

That was also a strategic exit for them out of US onshore operations.

這也是他們退出美國陸上業務的戰略退出。

There's probably some element of a premium for that.

這可能有一些溢價因素。

But overall, we feel like it's a really strong outcome out of the entirety of the process.

但總的來說，我們覺得這是整個過程的一個非常強大的結果。

And just to clarify, so on the A&D, does it work both ways?

澄清一下，對於 A&D，它是雙向的嗎？

Is it -- you were saying that you got value for later periods of strip pricing.

是嗎—您是說您在後期的帶鋼定價中獲得了價值。

Are you seeing that on the other side when you're looking at potentially acquiring assets?

當您考慮潛在收購資產時，您是否也看到了這一點？

Does that work with sellers as well?

這也適用於賣家嗎？

I think it just depends.

我認為這要看情況。

It's kind of hard to say.

有點難說。

It just depends on the environment.

這僅取決於環境。

I think for core assets, you're more likely to see value for those -- that longer-term inventory.

我認為對於核心資產，你更有可能看到它們的價值——長期庫存。

But I think in the mode we are in right now, we've gone through what Toby and I like to think of it as like a transformation area of EQT in the last 5 years.

但我認為，在我們現在所處的模式下，我們已經經歷了托比和我喜歡將其視為過去 5 年 EQT 轉型領域的事情。

M&A has been a very key part of that to transform EQT into the lowest cost producer with most inventory.

併購是將殷拓集團轉變為成本最低、庫存最多的生產商的一個非常關鍵的部分。

I think where we're at today, there's no other assets out there that compare to what we've built.

我認為我們今天所處的位置，沒有其他資產可以與我們所建造的資產相媲美。

So I don't think we're as focused on M&A going forward.

所以我認為我們不會那麼專注於未來的併購。

I think we look at -- if we have extra cash available, where can we actually put that to work acquisitively and buy the most duration of inventory at the lowest cost and that's just buying enough shares back.

我認為，如果我們有額外的可用現金，我們實際上可以在哪裡將其用於收購工作，並以最低的成本購買最長期限的庫存，而這只是回購足夠的股票。

Historically, we haven't really had that option because we didn't -- our business wasn't the character of what it is now.

從歷史上看，我們並沒有真正擁有這種選擇，因為我們沒有——我們的業務不像現在這樣。

But I think going forward, that's what you're going to see us focus pretty heavily on once we clear the balance sheet and ensure that through the cycle, we have the ability to do that with confidence.

但我認為，展望未來，一旦我們清理了資產負債表，並確保在整個週期中，我們有能力充滿信心地做到這一點，您將看到我們非常關注這一點。

Noel Parks, Tuohy Brothers.

諾埃爾·帕克斯、圖伊兄弟。

I was really interested to hear your comments about just as you have become more integrated again, your thoughts about volatility going forward.

我真的很想聽聽您的評論，就像您再次變得更加一體化一樣，以及您對未來波動性的看法。

And do you see us reaching a point where this greater volatility winds up reflected in strip?

您是否認為我們已經達到了這種更大的波動性最終反映在帶鋼上的地步？

I'm thinking about how low the liquidity is out beyond a year or so compared to what we saw in prior eras, where I guess there is just more speculative capital out there.

我在想，與我們之前看到的情況相比，一年左右的時間裡流動性有多低，我猜那裡只是有更多的投機資本。

So just curious what your thoughts on that.

所以只是好奇你對此有何想法。

I think you -- I mean what -- look, what the market will be short of is storage capacity.

我想你——我的意思是——看，市場缺少的是儲存容量。

The way to incentivize more storage capacity to get built, especially like short-cycle salt storage is you need seasonal spreads to widen out.

激勵建設更多儲存容量的方法，特別是像短週期鹽儲存一樣，需要擴大季節性價差。

And so I think as the market evolves in the years ahead, I think you will see summer winter spreads widen out quite a bit from where they are because that's the incentive to build that storage capacity.

因此，我認為隨著未來幾年市場的發展，我認為你會看到夏季冬季價差會比目前的情況擴大很多，因為這是建立儲存容量的動力。

I think the other place you will see that begin to be expressed is in the options market.

我認為你會看到開始表達的另一個地方是期權市場。

So that's what I'd be looking towards in terms of like how is the market going to price that extra volatility.

這就是我所期待的，例如市場將如何為額外的波動定價。

Got it.

知道了。

Storage again, always comes to the floor sooner or later.

再次存儲，遲早總會來到地板上。

And I'm just wondering, as you have outlined your strategy around curtailments and just how those can be useful.

我只是想知道，因為您已經概述了有關削減的策略以及這些策略如何發揮作用。

Do any of your scenarios that you look at contemplate the possibility of LNG capacity that have been planned, getting pushed out in its start-up?

您考慮的任何場景是否考慮到已規劃的液化天然氣產能在啟動時被淘汰的​​可能性？

And with your strategy, I was just trying to get a sense of whether that could actually be something favorable for you if sort of that demand burst, given your low cost structure and everything does get delayed or more or less neutral effect?

透過你的策略，我只是想了解，考慮到你的低成本結構和一切確實會延遲或或多或少的中性影響，如果需求突然爆發，這是否真的對你有利？

Yeah.

是的。

If that happens, gas prices would react more lower prices.

如果發生這種情況，天然氣價格將會進一步降低價格。

And I think it's going to reflect on why we've worked so hard to position this business to really get our cost structure to where it is to withstand those low-cost environments and not have to curtail activity.

我認為這將反思為什麼我們如此努力地定位這項業務，真正使我們的成本結構能夠承受這些低成本環境，而不必削減活動。

I mean I think it's just a matter of time before this gas demand comes, and being able to get through those troughs and remain unhedged, so you can take advantage of the higher prices when that demand does come is how we've set up the business.

我的意思是，我認為這種天然氣需求到來只是時間問題，並且能夠度過這些低谷並保持不受對沖的狀態，因此當需求確實到來時，您可以利用更高的價格，這就是我們建立的方式商業。

And I think it's -- the volatility that will come, whether it's LNG or weather events or geopolitical instances.

我認為這是即將到來的波動，無論是液化天然氣、天氣事件或地緣政治事件。

I mean, step back and look at the last few years, we've seen some major things happen that have created some pretty big opportunities.

我的意思是，退一步看看過去幾年，我們看到發生了一些重大事情，創造了一些相當大的機會。

We've positioned the business to be able to take advantage of those.

我們已將業務定位為能夠利用這些優勢。

And I think to your prior question on like pricing in the strip, I think it's the dynamic that we've proven in the third quarter that being able to curtail opportunistically has translated to higher realized pricing, I think that opportunity is going to be hard to model when you look at companies and just pick a gas price, because we are going to be moving our volumes, curtailing them and optimizing for better pricing.

我認為，對於你之前關於地帶定價的問題，我認為這是我們在第三季度證明的動態，能夠機會主義地削減已轉化為更高的實現定價，我認為機會將很難當你查看公司並選擇天然氣價格時進行建模，因為我們將調整我們的產量，減少它們並優化以獲得更好的定價。

Noel, if your question -- I'm trying to think about what exactly you mean by some of this, too.

諾埃爾，如果你的問題——我也在試著思考你所說的這些到底是什麼意思。

If your question is getting at, for example, Golden Pass or other facilities getting delayed, call it, the back half of next year.

例如，如果您的問題是 Golden Pass 或其他設施延誤，請稱之為明年下半年。

I think one of the most bullish things for the gas market right now is if all that capacity comes online in a very short amount of time, so if that facility really comes online towards the end of 2025, along with other facilities instead of slowing progressively, I think you're going to see just say it's 3 Bcf that comes online in a very short order.

我認為目前天然氣市場最樂觀的事情之一是，所有產能是否能在很短的時間內上線，因此，如果該設施真正在 2025 年底與其他設施一起上線，而不是逐漸放緩，我想您將會看到，只要說3 Bcf 會在很短的時間內上線。

Over 365 days, that's a Tcf of incremental demand.

超過 365 天，這是一個 Tcf 的增量需求。

Producers simply cannot respond that quickly and that is a material swing in US balances.

生產商根本無法那麼快地做出反應，這將導緻美國收支平衡發生重大波動。

If that happens, I actually think while it is a little more bearish near term, I think once that happens and as you get into 2026, that is unbelievably bullish.

如果這種情況發生，我實際上認為，雖然短期內會更加看跌，但我認為一旦這種情況發生，當你進入 2026 年時，這將是令人難以置信的看漲。

So look, we're going to be opportunistic.

所以看，我們會投機取巧。

I think we're going to be well positioned for whatever happens either way.

我認為無論發生什麼情況，我們都將處於有利位置。

But that's kind of a silver lining to some of this getting delayed and really getting stacked together all at the same time, potentially in the back half of next year.

但這是一線希望，因為其中一些事情被推遲，並且真正同時堆積在一起，可能是在明年下半年。

Right.

正確的。

That was exactly what I was getting out your remark earlier about the longer prices stay low and it suppresses overall industry activity, the harder it is to come back beyond DUCs and TILs to build activity back.

這正是我之前從您那裡得到的評論，即價格保持在低位的時間越長，就會抑制整個行業的活動，就越難恢復 DUC 和 TIL 之外的活動以恢復活動。

So that was kind of what I was thinking.

這就是我的想法。

All right.

好的。

Thank you all for joining.

感謝大家的加入。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。