EQT Corp (EQT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

My name is Deanna, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫迪安娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

This time, I would like to welcome everyone to the EQT Q3 2024 quarterly results conference call.

這次，我歡迎大家參加殷拓 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

所有線路均已靜音，以防止任何背景噪音。

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

演講者發言後，將進行問答環節。

You would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.

您想在此期間提出問題，只需按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的數字 1 即可。

I would like to withdraw your question, press star one again.

我想撤回你的問題，請再按星號一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I would now like to turn the call over to Cameron Horwitz, Managing Director, Investor Relations and Strategy.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係和策略部董事總經理卡梅倫·霍維茨 (Cameron Horwitz)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining our third quarter 2024 earnings results conference call.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jeremy keynote, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Toby Rice 和財務長 Jeremy keynote。

In a moment, Toby and Jeremy will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow an updated investor presentation.

稍後，托比和傑里米將在更新的投資者介紹之後透過問答環節發表他們準備好的演講。

Has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion.

已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中引用某些幻燈片。

A replay of today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening.

從今晚開始，我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的重播。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward looking statements.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。

Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of the factors described in yesterday's earnings release in our investor presentation, the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10 K and Form 10 Q and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC.

由於我們昨天的投資者介紹中的收益發布、我們最新的10 K 表格和10 Q 表格的風險因素部分以及我們隨後提交的文件中描述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

Today's call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

請參閱我們最新的收益報告和投資者介紹，以了解有關此類措施的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務措施的調節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

這樣，我就把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cameron, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝卡梅倫，大家早安。

The third quarter was hallmarked by the closing of our strategic acquisition of Equitrans Midstream, which transformed ETT. into Americas, only large-scale vertically integrated natural gas business.

第三季的標誌是我們完成了對 Equitrans Midstream 的策略性收購，這使 ETT 發生了轉變。進入美洲地區，只有大規模的垂直整合天然氣業務。

This combination has created a differentiated business model among the energy landscape, one that has leading inventory duration at the absolute low end of the North American natural gas cost curve.

這種組合在能源領域創造了一種差異化的商業模式，該模式在北美天然氣成本曲線的絕對低端具有領先的庫存期限。

Eqt's position at the lowest cost producer, structurally derisks our business in the low parts of the commodity cycle, while simultaneously unlocking unmatched upside to a higher price environment by eliminating the need to defensively hedge longer term, we believe these characteristics position EQT to generate disproportionate value for our shareholders, regardless of where we are in the commodity cycle.

EQT 處於成本最低的生產商地位，從結構上降低了我們在大宗商品週期低迷時期的業務風險，同時透過消除長期防禦性對沖的需要，釋放了更高價格環境中無與倫比的上行空間，我們相信這些特徵使EQT 能夠產生不成比例的收益無論我們處於商品週期的哪個階段，都為我們的股東創造價值。

Since we closed the Equitrans acquisition, our integration team has been sprinting ahead with more than 60% of total integration tasks completed in just three months.

自從我們完成對 Equitrans 的收購以來，我們的整合團隊一直在全力衝刺，在短短三個月內就完成了總整合任務的 60% 以上。

This remarkable pace is a testament to our proprietary integration system, which has been honed across multiple successful transactions over the past several years.

這一驚人的速度證明了我們專有的整合系統，該系統在過去幾年的多次成功交易中得到了磨練。

The highly efficient integration pace we've seen to date is resulting in synergy capture our current quicker than we originally expected.

迄今為止，我們所看到的高效整合步伐正在導致我們當前的協同效應比我們最初預期的更快。

Recall, we had previously assumed based synergies would start accruing by the middle of 2025 for what our integration progress.

回想一下，我們先前假設我們的整合進展將在 2025 年中期開始產生基礎綜效。

To date, we have already achieved $145 million of annualized financial and corporate cost savings, which is $25 billion more than our original underwriting assumptions that another way we have already derisked more than half of our $250 million base synergies in just three months of owning Equitrans.

迄今為止，我們已經實現了1.45 億美元的年度財務和企業成本節省，這比我們最初的承保假設多了250 億美元，換句話說，我們在擁有Equitrans 的短短三個月內就已經消除了2.5 億美元基礎綜效中一半以上的風險。

This rapid pace of base synergy capture, along with longer term system compression upside, further increases confidence in our ability to optimize value from the combined entities.

基礎綜效的快速獲取，以及長期系統壓縮的優勢，進一步增強了我們對合併後實體價值優化能力的信心。

We are also seeing Equitrans employees are excited to be integrated into EQT's culture.

我們也看到 Equitrans 員工很高興融入 EQT 的文化。

This is a similar situation to what we observed when we took over etc. In 2019, where the cultural buying of our employee base enabled us to create more value than we originally anticipated.

這與我們接手時觀察到的情況類似。

I'm extremely excited to see what the combined EQT an equity transaction teams can accomplish together over the coming years.

我非常高興看到合併後的 EQT 和股權交易團隊在未來幾年能夠共同達成什麼成就。

Alongside rapid integration and synergy capture, we are already unlocking operational efficiency gains as a direct consequence of the acquisition.

除了快速整合和協同效應之外，我們還透過收購的直接結果釋放了營運效率的提升。

An example of this can be seen in our investor presentation where we highlight a new EQT record for water delivered to a well site.

這方面的一個例子可以在我們的投資者演示中看到，其中我們重點介紹了井場供水的新 EQT 記錄。

This record water delivery pace in turn, Facil allocated another all-time record for completions pumping time, getting our prior record set earlier this year by 10% pace of water delivery of the key factor in completion efficiency put simply the faster you deliver water to the wellsite, the faster you can frac, which in turn drives down well costs.

這項創紀錄的輸水速度反過來又創造了完井抽水時間的另一個歷史記錄，將我們今年早些時候創下的先前記錄提高了10%。而言之，輸水速度越快越靠近井場，壓裂速度越快，進而降低油井成本。

This record is only possible because of the seamless coordination of our now internal Equitrans water system with EQT's upstream operations highlighting that optimization of the Equitrans water assets has the potential to drive additional operational efficiencies that we could not have achieved stand alone.

這項記錄之所以成為可能，是因為我們現在的內部 Equitrans 水務系統與 EQT 上游業務的無縫協調，這凸顯了 Equitrans 水務資產的優化有可能提高我們單獨無法實現的額外營運效率。

We also recently completed the connection of E. duties water network in West Virginia with equity tranches water system in Pennsylvania, which structurally improves our ability to deliver water to well sites.

我們最近也完成了西維吉尼亞州的 E.tasks 供水網絡與賓州的權益部分供水系統的連接，這從結構上提高了我們向井場供水的能力。

Disconnection should also say more than $70 million in water disposal costs over the next two years from an investment of just $15 million, highlighting an example of the type of low risk, high return investment opportunities that are unlocked by the acquisition.

斷網也意味著，未來兩年僅投資 1,500 萬美元的水處理成本將超過 7,000 萬美元，突顯了此次收購帶來的低風險、高回報投資機會的例子。

Efficient water delivery, along with various other supply chain initiatives are supercharging the recent completion efficiency gains that we highlighted with Q2 results.

高效的供水以及其他各種供應鏈措施正在推動我們在第二季業績中強調的近期完成效率的提高。

During the third quarter, we set a new EQT record for completion efficiency, with footage completed per day averaging 35% faster than our 2023 pace.

第三季度，我們創下了新的 EQT 完成效率記錄，每天完成的素材平均比 2023 年的速度快了 35%。

The past two quarters of operational performance, along with our equity grants, integration momentum are increasing our confidence in a sustainably faster complete space, and we see the opportunity to complete 50% more footage per day in 2025 compared to our historic average.

過去兩季的營運業績，加上我們的股權補助和整合勢頭，增強了我們對可持續更快完成空間的信心，我們看到了與歷史平均水平相比，到2025 年每天完成的鏡頭數量增加50% 的機會。

With continued success, we may ultimately be able to drop from three to two frac crews overtime, which is remarkable.

隨著持續的成功，我們最終可能能夠將加班的壓裂人員從三名減少到兩名，這是非常了不起的。

Given we are able to hold flat seven these activities, we are still quantifying the potential impacts to our capital budget, but we believe these gains could have the potential to sustainably save approximately $50 per foot, which could translate to 50 to $60 million per year.

鑑於我們能夠堅持七項活動，我們仍在量化對我們資本預算的潛在影響，但我們相信這些收益有可能持續節省每英尺約 50 美元，這可能意味著每年節省 5000 至 6000 萬美元。

Shifting gears, we recently announced that EQT has become the first traditional energy producer of scale in the world to achieve net zero Scope one and two greenhouse gas emissions.

我們最近宣布，殷拓集團 (EQT) 已成為全球第一個實現範圍一和範圍二溫室氣體淨零排放的傳統能源生產商。

Not only did we accomplish this ahead of our 2025 goal, but we achieved this net zero status across the entirety of our upstream operations, inclusive of the recently acquired tug Hill, actually on midstream and all the assets, which are not included in the target originally set in 2021.

我們不僅提前實現了 2025 年目標，而且在整個上游業務中實現了淨零狀態，包括最近收購的拖船 Hill、實際上位於中游的以及所有未包含在目標中的資產最初定於 2021 年。

This means that over the past five years, EQT has reduced total scope one and scope two GHG emissions by over 900,000 tons, which is the equivalent of taking approximately 195,000 cars off the road annually.

這意味著在過去五年中，殷拓已將範圍一和範圍二溫室氣體排放總量減少了超過 90 萬噸，相當於每年減少約 195,000 輛汽車。

The bulk of these reductions came from structural emissions abatement, including replacing more than 9,000 pneumatic devices shifting to electric frac fleets, deploying combo development and installing advanced emissions control devices for the remaining emissions that are not available with current technologies.

其中大部分減排來自結構性減排，包括將 9,000 多個氣動裝置更換為電動壓裂機組、部署組合開發以及安裝先進的排放控制裝置來處理當前技術無法實現的剩餘排放。

CGT. has Gener Randy carbon offsets through force management projects as opposed to purchasing third party carbon credits.

資本利得稅。蘭迪將軍透過部隊管理專案來抵消碳排放，而不是購買第三方碳信用。

This was done via our partnership with the State of West Virginia and includes conservation management practices such as the removal of invasive species, wildfire risk monitoring and native trees and shrubs placement.

這是透過我們與西維吉尼亞州的合作完成的，包括保育管理實踐，例如清除入侵物種、野火風險監測以及本地樹木和灌木的安置。

All of which have coal benefits for our local stakeholders.

所有這些都為我們當地的利害關係人帶來煤炭利益。

These efforts are verified by West Virginia University, ensuring both economic and environmental benefits to the region.

這些努力得到了西維吉尼亞大學的驗證，確保了該地區的經濟和環境效益。

Over the life of this partnership, we expect to generate approximately $10 million tons of high-quality carbon offsets at a cost to EQT below $3 per ton, underscoring EQT's capital efficient path to achieving net zero emissions.

在本次合作期間，我們預計將以每噸 3 美元以下的成本產生約 1,000 萬噸高品質碳抵消，凸顯了 EQT 實現淨零排放的資本高效途徑。

We believe EQT's unique position as the only vertically integrated low-cost natural gas producer with multi-decade inventory and net zero Scope one and two emissions will continue to open differentiated ways to maximize the value you have each molecule similar to the long-term supply deals, we announced with utilities in the Southeast last year.

我們相信，殷拓作為唯一一家垂直整合的低成本天然氣生產商，擁有數十年的庫存和範圍一和二的淨零排放，其獨特地位將繼續開闢差異化的方式，以最大限度地提高每個分子的價值，類似於長期供應我們去年宣布與東南部公用事業公司達成交易。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.

現在，我將把電話轉給傑里米。

Thanks, Toby.

謝謝，托比。

I'll start by summarizing our third quarter results for prior to doing so, I'd like to note that results shown on our financial statements include Equitrans for 70 days during the quarter.

我將首先總結我們第三季的業績，在此之前，我想指出的是，我們的財務報表中顯示的結果包括本季 70 天的 Equitrans。

So we've also provided pro forma numbers, assuming a full quarter of Equitrans results for the purpose of comparability to guidance and consensus estimates.

因此，我們也提供了預計數據，假設 Equitrans 的整個季度結果，以便與指導和共識估計進行比較。

Strong well performance, continued efficiency gains and modestly lower than expected curtailments drove Q3 sales volumes to 581 BCFE for 4% above the high end of our guidance range.

強勁的油井表現、持續的效率提升以及略低於預期的減產，推動第三季銷售量達到 581 BCFE，比我們指導範圍的上限高出 4%。

It's worth noting that had we not curtailed.

值得注意的是，如果我們沒有削減的話。

We estimate production would have come in at 616 BCFE. for the quarter or 6.8 BCFE per day, highlighting the true strength of our performance as it relates to curtailments, we have been taking a highly tactical approach over the past few months in response to the volatile gas price environment.

我們估計產量將達到 616 BCFE。本季度或每天 6.8 BCFE，凸顯了我們與削減相關的業績的真正實力，在過去幾個月中，我們一直採取高度戰術性的方法來應對波動的天然氣價格環境。

This strategy has allowed us to match supply with demand on a daily basis, thus maximizing our price realizations.

這項策略使我們能夠每天匹配供應與需求，從而最大限度地提高我們的價格實現。

Consequently, our differential for the third quarter came in $0.1 better than the midpoint of our guidance range at $0.65 per Mcf.

因此，我們第三季的差異比我們指導範圍的中點（每 Mcf 0.65 美元）高出 0.1 美元。

Underscoring how this tactical approach is creating value in real time without disrupting operations are impairing productive capacity.

強調這種戰術方法如何在不中斷營運的情況下即時創造價值，卻會損害生產能力。

We believe these impressive results prove why tactically curtailing volumes in periods of weak pricing is the right strategy and a volatile world.

我們相信，這些令人印象深刻的結果證明了為什麼在定價疲軟時期戰術性地減少銷售是正確的策略，也是一個動盪的世界。

The acquisition of equity trends and gives us greater ability to deploy the strategy as it eliminated four Bcf per day of minimum volume commitments while simultaneously lowering cost structure to a level that we can maintain steady operations even in the low parts of the commodity cycle.

股權趨勢的收購使我們更有能力部署該策略，因為它消除了每天 4 Bcf 的最低交易量承諾，同時將成本結構降低到我們即使在商品週期低迷時期也能保持穩定營運的水平。

Rather than being forced to slash activity due to high operating leverage.

而不是由於高營運槓桿而被迫削減活動。

Pro forma for the full quarter of Equitrans, our operating costs came in $0.05 below the low end of guidance and $1.7 per MCFE due to production outperformance and LOE and G&A expenses below expectations.

根據 Equitrans 整個季度的預估，由於生產表現出色以及 LOE 和 G&A 費用低於預期，我們的營運成本比指導低端低 0.05 美元，每 MCFE 低 1.7 美元。

Pro forma CapEx was nearly $100 million below the midpoint of our guidance range at 573 million as a efficiency gains and lower midstream and pad construction spending accrued to our benefit.

預計資本支出將比我們指導範圍中點 5.73 億美元低近 1 億美元，因為效率提高以及中游和平台建設支出的降低為我們帶來了好處。

On the midstream side, pro forma third party revenue came in at 142 million at the high end of guidance, driven by better-than-expected uptime and VP. capital contributions were $160 million in line with expectations.

在中游方面，受好於預期的正常運行時間和副總裁的推動，預計第三方收入達到 1.42 億美元，處於指導上限。出資額為 1.6 億美元，符合預期。

Turning to the balance sheet, Q3 was an eventful quarter with the closing of equity trends in July.

轉向資產負債表，第三季度是一個多事的季度，股票趨勢在 7 月結束。

As we discussed in our last conference call ahead of closing, we negotiated an upside of EQT's unsecured revolver capacity from 2.5 billion to $3.5 billion.

正如我們在交易結束前的上次電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們協商將 EQT 的無擔保左輪手槍產能從 25 億美元提高到 35 億美元。

At closing, EQT again to all of Equitrans is outstanding preferred shares, followed shortly thereafter by the redemption of EQM.s, 300 million of bonds due in August 2020 for saving approximately $50 million annually from reduced cost of capital.

交易結束時，EQT 再次向 Equitrans 的所有已發行優先股出售，隨後不久又贖回了 EQM.s，即 2020 年 8 月到期的 3 億張債券，每年透過降低資本成本節省約 5,000 萬美元。

Yesterday, we announced the divestiture of our remaining non-operated assets in Northeastern Pennsylvania to Ecuador for 1.25 billion in cash.

昨天，我們宣布以 12.5 億現金將賓州東北部剩餘的非經營資產剝離給厄瓜多爾。

Recall, these non-operated assets came with our all acquisition in 2021, and we allocated approximately 1.1 billion of value to them.

回想一下，這些非經營性資產是我們在 2021 年收購的，我們為它們分配了約 11 億的價值。

At the time between asset level, cash flows and the two transactions announced this year, we expect to realize approximately 3.6 billion of total value, implying a 3.3 times return on investment since 2021.

在資產水準、現金流量和今年宣布的兩筆交易之間，我們預計將實現約 36 億美元的總價值，這意味著自 2021 年以來投資回報率將達到 3.3 倍。

We expect this transaction of Ecuador to close by year end, with proceeds expected to be used for debt repayment.

我們預計厄瓜多爾的這筆交易將於年底完成，所得款項預計將用於償還債務。

With this latest sale, we have now announced $1 billion compared to our three to $5 billion asset sale target.

透過這次最新的出售，我們現在宣布了 10 億美元的資產出售目標，而我們的資產出售目標是 30 至 50 億美元。

We are simultaneously making rapid progress in our regulated midstream sale process, giving us confidence in achieving the high end of our asset sale target range by year end 2024.

同時，我們在受監管的中游銷售流程中取得了快速進展，這讓我們有信心在 2024 年底前實現資產銷售目標範圍的高端。

Dusty risks, our balance sheet several quarters ahead of schedule.

塵埃落定的風險，我們的資產負債表比計畫提早了幾個季度。

Turning to hedging.

轉向對沖。

Since our last update, we have added a significant amount of hedges in the back half of 2025 to bullet proof our deleveraging plan.

自上次更新以來，我們在 2025 年下半年增加了大量對沖，以確保我們的去槓桿化計劃。

Post these additions and pro forma for the non-op sale, we are now approximately 60% hedged for calendar year 2025 with an average floor price of $3.25 for MMBTU for other upside as high as $5.50 per MMBTU in Q4.

考慮到這些新增內容和預計的非營運銷售，我們現在對 2025 年日曆年的約 60% 進行了對沖，MMBTU 的平均底價為 3.25 美元，第四季度的其他上漲空間高達每 MMBTU 5.50 美元。

With our updated hedge book and low breakeven cost structure, we estimate a few key can generate free cash flow next year down to a nine next natural gas price of approximately $1 per MMBTU and generate nearly 1 billion of free cash flow at USD2 per MMBTU.

憑藉我們更新的對沖帳簿和較低的損益平衡成本結構，我們估計明年一些關鍵項目可以產生自由現金流，降至每MMBTU 約1 美元的下九天然氣價格，並以每MMBTU 2 美元的價格產生近10 億自由現金流。

Henry Hub prices, underscoring the unrivaled earnings power of our business.

亨利中心的價格，凸顯了我們業務無與倫比的獲利能力。

In any scenario beyond 2025, we expect to use commodity derivatives opportunistically rather than defensively as our position at the low end of that natural gas cost curve acts as a structural hedge, which in turn facilitates unmasked exposure to high price scenarios.

在2025 年之後的任何情況下，我們預計都會機會性地而不是防禦性地使用商品衍生品，因為我們在天然氣成本曲線低端的位置可以起到結構性對沖的作用，這反過來又有幫助於暴露在高價情況下。

By limiting our need to financially hedge.

透過限制我們的財務對沖需求。

Turning to Q2, the power markets, which are awakening from to lost decades and becoming one of the most interesting corners of the energy industry with a direct impact on natural gas demand.

談到第二季度，電力市場正在從失去的幾十年中甦醒，成為能源產業最有趣的領域之一，對天然氣需求產生直接影響。

Over the course of this year, we have witnessed a reluctance to entertain the idea of gas power generation for data centers evolve into a widespread acceptance of natural gas as critical at the same time, more than 80 gigawatts of coal generation capacity is scheduled to be retired by 2030 and nearly 200 gigawatts by 2035, leading a hole in the U.S. baseload power stack, they can only be filled quickly by reliable natural gas generation.

在今年的過程中，我們目睹了資料中心天然氣發電的不願接受的想法逐漸演變為普遍接受天然氣作為關鍵，同時計劃將超過 80 吉瓦的煤炭發電能力到2030 年將退役，到2035 年將接近200 吉瓦，這將導緻美國基荷電力堆疊出現缺口，只能透過可靠的天然氣發電來快速填補。

We expect natural gas to take 50% to 80% of new power generation market share has intermittent renewables are not suited for 24 seven reliability, and we believe there are just a handful of more nuclear facilities that can be restarted through the end of the decade.

我們預計天然氣將佔據新增發電市場份額的 50% 至 80%，因為間歇性再生能源不適合 24 小時 7 小時的可靠性，而且我們相信在本世紀末只有少數核設施可以重新啟動。

These dynamics are giving us greater confidence in our base case view, the data centers and additional coal retirements will drive up to 10 Bcf per day of incremental natural gas power demand by 2030.

這些動態使我們對我們的基本情況更有信心，到 2030 年，資料中心和額外的煤炭退役將推動天然氣電力需求每天增加 10 Bcf。

Notably, this demand will be regional in nature with more than half likely to come from the Southeast in PJM markets.

值得注意的是，這種需求本質上是區域性的，其中超過一半可能來自 PJM 市場的東南部。

Given HTT. is the only large-scale integrated natural gas producer with exposure.

給定 HTT。是唯一涉足的大型綜合天然氣生產商。

To these reasons, we stand ready to support and directly benefit from this megatrend.

基於這些原因，我們隨時準備好支持這一大趨勢並直接受益。

Turning to fourth quarter guidance, we've made some modest tweaks to our prior outlook.

談到第四季的指導，我們對先前的前景進行了一些適度的調整。

We now expect fourth quarter production to range from 555 to 605 BCFE, up 7% from our prior outlook of 515 to 565 BCFE due to robust well results and less curtailed volumes than we previously expected.

我們現在預計第四季度產量將在 555 至 605 BCFE 之間，比我們之前預期的 515 至 565 BCFE 增長 7%，因為油井業績強勁且產量削減幅度低於我們先前的預期。

Amid an improving app Appalachia price environment.

在阿巴拉契亞應用程式價格環境不斷改善的情況下。

For perspective, we estimate our 2020 for production is tracking above the high end of our original 22 hundred to 23 hundred Bcf.

從長遠來看，我們估計 2020 年的產量將高於最初 2200 至 2300 Bcf 的上限。

The guidance range when normalized for curtailments demonstrating the strength of this year's underlying performance before the impact of our decision to curtail production.

減產標準化後的指導範圍顯示了在我們減產決定影響之前今年基本業績的實力。

Looking into 2025, we still intend to maintain flat year over year sales volumes, pro forma the transactions with Ecuador around 21 hundred BCFE and expect a pullback activity if efficiency improvements continue to pull forward volumes on basis differentials, we are tightening our fourth quarter differential guidance range by $0.05 to 50 to $0.6 per Mcf as eastern storage levels have normalized improving local pricing.

展望2025 年，我們仍打算保持同比銷量持平，預計與厄瓜多爾的交易量約為2100 BCFE，並預計如果效率改進繼續推動基差銷量增長，我們預計活動將會回落，我們正在收緊第四季度的差價由於東部儲存水準已經正常化，當地定價不斷提高，指導範圍為每立方英尺 0.05 美元至 50 美元至 0.6 美元。

This winter.

今年冬天。

Looking at operating expenses, we are lowering the midpoint of our fourth quarter operating expense guidance range, $0.05 per MCFE, largely driven by higher volumes and lower upstream LOE and G&A expenses.

就營運費用而言，我們降低了第四季度營運費用指導範圍的中點，即每 MCFE 0.05 美元，這主要是由於產量增加以及上游 LOE 和 G&A 費用降低。

Note, we reallocated some expenses within our GP. and T. outlook as we fine tuned.

請注意，我們在全科醫生內部重新分配了一些費用。以及我們微調後的 T. 前景。

Our pro forma accounting for Equitrans, but this had essentially no net impact on our total GP. and T. expenses on CapEx, as I mentioned previously, third quarter spending came in nearly 100 million below expectations with part of this variance driven by pad construction shifting from Q3 into Q4.

我們對 Equitrans 進行了備考會計處理，但這對我們的總 GP 基本上沒有淨影響。正如我之前提到的，第三季支出比預期低近 1 億美元，部分差異是由於焊盤建設從第三季轉移到第四季造成的。

This shift, along with embedding some conservativism around non-op spending, drove a $50 million increase in our fourth quarter capital guidance.

這一轉變，加上對非營運支出的保守態度，推動我們第四季的資本指引增加了 5000 萬美元。

That said, our total second half spending is still trending below the midpoint of guidance.

也就是說，我們下半年的總支出仍低於指導中點。

We put out last quarter by a net $15 million, reflecting the official currency gains referenced previously at MVP.

上季我們淨支出 1500 萬美元，反映了 MVP 之前提到的官方貨幣收益。

We have fine-tuned estimates for slightly higher capital contributions to complete the right away reclamation post hurricane Helene and a slightly lower distribution in the fourth quarter, simply driven by payment timing at recent strip pricing and pro forma the non-op sale, we forecast cumulative free cash flow of approximately 14.5 billion from 2025 to 2029 at an average natural gas price of roughly $3.50 per MMBTU at $2.75 natural gas prices, EQT would still generate approximately $8 billion of five-year cumulative free cash flow was about $5 gas.

我們對略高的資本投入進行了微調，以完成颶風海倫後立即進行的填海工程，並在第四季度進行了略低的分配，我們預測，這僅僅是受近期帶鋼定價的付款時間和預計非營運銷售的推動。為5 美元天然氣）。

This number swelled to almost $25 billion, which we can realize as we do not need to defensively hedge.

這個數字膨脹到近 250 億美元，我們可以意識到這一點，因為我們不需要防禦性對沖。

There is no other natural gas business that comes close to provide in the same combination of downside protection and upside exposure for investors.

沒有其他天然氣業務能夠為投資者提供相同的下行保護和上行風險。

We believe EQT is now in a classic zone.

我們相信殷拓現在處於經典區域。

Our simple goal is to be too easy to own way for investors to gain exposure to natural gas, meaning if you were at the medically bullish natural gas, whether it's because of coal retirements, power growth, LNG exports, dwindling core inventory, bearish oil prices due to OPEC oversupply or anything else, we are positioning EQT to be the go-to natural gas stock, and it's a through this cycle fixture of your energy portfolio.

我們的簡單目標是讓投資者能夠輕鬆地獲得天然氣投資，這意味著如果你在醫學上看漲天然氣，無論是因為煤炭退役、電力增長、液化天然氣出口、核心庫存減少還是看跌石油由於OPEC 供應過剩或其他原因導致價格上漲，我們將EQT 定位為首選天然氣股票，並且它是您能源投資組合中本週期的固定資產。

We see our story increasingly resonating with long-term investors who trust we will continue to operate from the same principle framework that has brought us success to date.

我們看到我們的故事越來越引起長期投資者的共鳴，他們相信我們將繼續按照迄今為止為我們帶來成功的相同原則框架來運作。

Compounding cash flow year after year.

現金流逐年複合。

And with that, I will turn it back to Toby for some concluding remarks.

接下來，我將把它轉回給托比，讓他做一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

You see today is operating at the highest levels of efficiency in history and quarter-after-quarter.

您會看到今天的營運效率是歷史上和季度以來的最高水準。

We continue to break records.

我們繼續打破記錄。

We've built an unrivaled integrated natural gas business with the key catalyst for continued value creation.

我們建立了無與倫比的綜合天然氣業務，成為持續創造價值的關鍵催化劑。

We have high confidence in the successful completion of our deleveraging program and continuing our long track record of delivering on our promises to shareholders ahead of schedule with better than expected results. And with that, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

我們對成功完成去槓桿計畫充滿信心，並持續提前兌現對股東的承諾，取得好於預期的績效。現在我想開始提問。

At this time, I'd like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad.

此時，我想提醒大家，要問，請按星號，然後按電話鍵盤上的數字一。

Please only ask one question and one follow-up. During this time.

請僅提出一個問題和一項後續行動。這段時間。

Your first question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research.

你的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Doug Leggate。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Sunday, gosh, you guys are moving quite quickly on the Sunday.

週日，天哪，你們週日的動作真快。

Congratulations on from what you've done.

祝賀你所做的一切。

But Toby, um, I guess I am never happy with the pace, especially given that you're moving a lot faster than perhaps you initially guided.

但是托比，嗯，我想我對節奏從來都不滿意，特別是考慮到你的移動速度可能比你最初指導的要快得多。

So, my question is I look at Slide 6, which is obviously your progress on the $250 million.

所以，我的問題是我看一下投影片 6，這顯然是您在 2.5 億美元方面的進展。

And then I look at slide 25, which is the upside case to for 25 on how would you how would you help us think about the timing on derisking of from both those numbers, particularly the upside synergies from Pinterest for optimization?

然後我看投影片 25，這是 25 的上行案例，您將如何幫助我們考慮從這兩個數字中消除風險的時機，特別是 Pinterest 優化的上行協同效應？

What I'd say we're ahead of schedule, both from a time perspective and realizing synergies that are a little bit greater than what we anticipated.

我想說的是，無論從時間角度還是實現協同效應，我們都比計劃提前了，比我們的預期要大一些。

What's in front of us now really are the synergies related to the operational execution and does the pace at which were movement in this integration being 60% through this may help frame those up a little bit better.

現在擺在我們面前的實際上是與營運執行相關的協同效應，並且整合的進展速度達到 60%，這可能有助於更好地建立這些協同效應。

And Doug, those those are synergy capture estimates will be folded into our our 2025 budget, which we're currently working through, and we'll provide updates in future calls.

Doug，這些協同效應捕獲估計將納入我們目前正在製定的 2025 年預算中，我們將在未來的電話會議中提供最新資訊。

Okay.

好的。

Because of all again, and that seems to be somewhat ahead of what you were expecting to be.

再次因為這一切，這似乎有點超出你的預期。

My next question is, are mindful of others a little bit tricky to us come not quite sure how to articulate it.

我的下一個問題是，是否注意到其他人對我們來說有點棘手，不太確定如何表達它。

But if I look at the volatility of gas prices through the third quarter and then ultimately the way that you abide volumes, I'm trying to understand how malleable the I mean, how easy is to bring things on off in response to pay price.

但如果我觀察整個第三季天然氣價格的波動，然後最終觀察交易量的變化情況，我會試著理解我的意思是，它的可塑性有多大，根據支付價格來啟動事情有多麼容易。

And what was behind my question is you no longer have any MVP. obligations really relate to your ownership of Wellbutrin.

我的問題背後的原因是你不再有任何 MVP。義務確實與您對維布特林的所有權有關。

So you have tremendous flexibility to really navigate run very short term versus price.

因此，您擁有巨大的靈活性，可以真正駕馭短期運作與價格運作。

Is that how we should think about this curtailment strategy?

我們該如何考慮這種限電策略？

Or what am I thinking about it wrong with them?

或者我認為他們有什麼問題？

Yes.

是的。

I think it's really important to understand.

我認為理解這一點非常重要。

And I think the dynamic that we laid out on slide 21, which is a framing up sort of the natural gas market characteristics and how they've changed, I think, was a really powerful start that sort of supports the fact that we're going to be in a more highly volatile world going forward.

我認為我們在幻燈片 21 上展示的動態是天然氣市場特徵及其變化的框架，我認為這是一個非常強大的開始，在某種程度上支持了這樣一個事實：我們正在未來將處於一個更動盪的世界。

Howard.

霍華德.

And the question that people need to ask is how are these businesses going to perform in this more volatile world where you're going to have lower lows and higher highs on the way that our business is going to manage in those low price periods is really two things.

人們需要問的問題是，在這個更動盪的世界中，這些企業將如何表現，在這個世界中，我們的企業在低價時期的管理方式確實會出現更低的低點和更高的高點。

It's the integrated is the integrated nature of our business, which, as you mentioned, will give us tremendous flexibility to by removing MDC's that we had in place.

這是我們業務的整合性質，正如您所提到的，透過刪除我們現有的 MDC，這將為我們帶來巨大的靈活性。

So we've listed a huge constraint and have more flexibility there.

因此，我們列出了一個巨大的限制，並且在那裡有更多的靈活性。

But the other thing that's going to allow us to curtail that's equally as important is having a super low cost structure and that will give us the ability to curtail volumes and not have to alter slash activity levels.

但另一件事讓我們能夠減少同樣重要的事情，那就是擁有超低成本的結構，這將使我們能夠減少交易量，而不必改變削減活動水平。

What that means is that when those higher price environments show up, we're going to be positioned to capture that.

這意味著，當出現更高的價格環境時，我們將能夠抓住這一點。

And we're not going to be sitting six months.

我們不會坐等六個月。

Our production is not going to be sitting behind six months of restart.

我們的生產不會在重啟六個月後停止。

It's something that we can turn on some pretty rapidly, and that's a muscle that we've been flexing in the past.

這是我們可以快速啟動的東西，也是我們過去一直在展示的肌肉。

And this is going to be a muscle that's going to be really important in this environment that we're looking at.

在我們所關注的環境中，這將是非常重要的肌肉。

Doug, if you look at Q3 specifically and we had been turning on and off up to a Bcf a day day on a near daily basis in response to where pricing is, that is really the reason we've realized that $0.1 better differential this quarter as has been able to tactically do that now I think in a low price environment, that's a great tool.

Doug，如果你具體看一下第三季度，我們幾乎每天都會打開和關閉 Bcf，以響應定價情況，這就是我們意識到本季度 0.1 美元差異的真正原因由於現在能夠在戰術上做到這一點，我認為在低價環境中，這是一個很好的工具。

It's telling hedging type basis hedging away.

這說明了對沖類型的基差對沖。

And when you look at that chart, Toby reference on page 21, 60% of the data points you see on that bottom chart are really below $3.

當您查看第 21 頁托比參考的該圖表時，您在底部圖表中看到的 60% 的數據點確實低於 3 美元。

So about 20% of those are below $2.

所以其中大約 20% 的價格低於 2 美元。

And that in that environment, that's generally where you're going to see us turn volumes off because of the you just can't make money there.

在那種環境下，通常你會看到我們關閉產量，因為你在那裡賺不到錢。

The rest of that time.

剩下的時間。

And we plan to be supplying gas to the market.

我們計劃向市場供應天然氣。

And so it allows us some of the lead the loan was out of our out of our sales volumes, but there's still be positioned to capture the highs.

因此，它使我們能夠在貸款額中領先於我們的銷售量，但仍然有能力捕捉高點。

And so if you look at the data shown there, the difference between the median and the averages over $0.8, and that's effectively the difference if you pursue the strategy we're pursuing for you don't have to hedge away at highs, but you still are protected against below as you can curtail and you have a structurally resilient business at $0.8 for us over, you know, to TV or production is a tremendous amount of value added at certainly when you look out long term.

因此，如果你看一下那裡顯示的數據，中位數和平均值之間的差異超過0.8 美元，如果你採用我們所追求的策略，那麼這實際上就是差異，因為你不必在高點進行對沖，但你仍然受到保護，因為您可以削減開支，並且您的業務結構具有彈性，價格為 0.8 美元，您知道，從長遠來看，電視或製作肯定會帶來巨大的附加價值。

So it's very hard to model for that.

所以很難為此建模。

I think the character of the market, as I keep talking about is United discussed a lot is changing, and that's how we're trying to position it does.

我認為市場的特徵，正如我一直在談論的曼聯討論的那樣，正在發生變化，這就是我們試圖定位的方式。

Pardon the clarification and I of course, I'm NNBC. and INVP. and you got to and pipelines, I guess, but but just to be clear, so when we looked at the volatility intra-quarter in your curtailments strategy, you have the ability to basically pick your spots.

請原諒我的澄清，當然，我是 NNBC。和INVP。我想，你必須建立管道，但要明確一點，所以當我們在你的削減策略中考慮季度內的波動性時，你基本上有能力選擇你的位置。

And therefore, because on your best friend does otherwise, we should think about it, correct.

因此，因為你最好的朋友不這樣做，我們應該考慮一下，正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So I was looking for.

所以我一直在尋找。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Appreciate the time.

珍惜時間。

Got it.

知道了。

Next question comes from Roger Read with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的羅傑·里德。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning and appreciate the clarity on that previous question.

早安，感謝您對上一個問題的澄清。

I think a lot of us for a figure that out on the curtailment side.

我認為我們很多人都支持削減方面的數字。

I think one of the other questions I have is still early days, obviously with the macrotrends acquisition.

我認為我遇到的其他問題之一仍處於早期階段，顯然與宏觀趨勢收購有關。

But as you think about synergies and a 25, maybe a little bit of a what have you seen that surprised you so far, what do you think it might take a little bit longer?

但是，當您考慮協同效應和 25 小時時，也許到目前為止您看到的一些讓您感到驚訝的事情，您認為可能需要更長的時間嗎？

And just trying to get the idea, you know, we're used to companies setting a synergy target and now performing at.

只是想了解這個想法，你知道，我們已經習慣了公司設定協同目標並且現在正在執行。

Yes, I think that's something that's likely to play out for year.

是的，我認為這可能會持續一年。

Yes.

是的。

So the biggest thing for us operationally, which I think Jeff, most of the conservatism baked in in the synergy estimates really as outlined on slide 26 from the uplift we're going to see from compression from.

因此，對我們來說最重要的是，我認為傑夫，協同效應估計中的大部分保守主義確實如幻燈片 26 中概述的那樣，來自我們將從壓縮中看到的提升。

It's important to know when we framed up that synergy, we were assuming a 10% uplift from the benefits of compressed adding compression.

重要的是要知道，當我們建構這種協同作用時，我們假設壓縮增加壓縮帶來的好處會增加 10%。

And these pilots that we're showing there are showing that we're seeing nearly two times at uplifts.

我們在那裡展示的這些試點表明，我們看到了近兩次的上升。

So that will be helpful.

所以這會有幫助。

Timing is a timing on when we can get these.

時機是我們何時可以獲得這些的時機。

These compression projects rolling at a larger scale is going to be the big determining factor.

這些大規模的壓縮項目將成為重要的決定因素。

And the team has been hard at work and that will be putting those projects into our budgets of timing.

團隊一直在努力工作，並將把這些項目納入我們的時間預算中。

And all that will be framed up in our 25 budget plan.

所有這些都將納入我們的 25 預算計劃中。

Okay.

好的。

And then my other question is, obviously things have gone fairly well on the asset dispositions, the non-op stuff you cited.

然後我的另一個問題是，顯然在資產處置，你提到的非營運方面，事情進展得相當順利。

I think we've seen rumors in the press about MVK. sale.

我想我們已經在媒體上看到有關 MVK 的謠言。銷售。

If you're able to generate more cash just from operations in addition to the asset sales, what's the right way to think about how you would have right-sized the balance sheet, meaning how much of a premium would you have to pay on a debt to retire early?

如果除了資產銷售之外，您還能夠透過營運產生更多現金，那麼考慮如何調整資產負債表規模的正確方法是什麼，這意味著您需要為資產支付多少溢價負債累累提前退休？

And I'm just trying to think of about it as you build cash to return cash and pay the debt off in a more methodical pattern?

我只是想思考一下，當你累積現金以返還現金並以更有條理的模式償還債務時？

No, I we've been spending a lot of time on this.

不，我們在這上面花了很多時間。

I think we had a pretty efficient plan to eliminate the debt that we have in front of us and smooth out our maturity stacks.

我認為我們有一個非常有效的計劃來消除我們面前的債務並平滑我們的到期堆疊。

And so I don't expect any sort of inefficiency that come out of that.

所以我預計這不會導致任何效率低下的情況。

I think it will be pretty straightforward.

我認為這將非常簡單。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Tim, and congrats on making progress on on around the asset sales.

謝謝蒂姆，並祝賀您在資產銷售方面取得了進展。

Hey, you mentioned in your prepared or prepared remarks, he has spent a lot of time in the power markets.

嘿，你在準備好的或準備好的演講中提到，他在電力市場上花了很多時間。

Just curious what your real-time assessment is around the AI. in data demand and status center theme?

只是好奇你對人工智慧的即時評估是什麼。資料需求與狀態中心主題？

And how do you see that specifically in the Marcellus is do you see a case for a step-up in at in in-basin demand around data centers as well?

您如何看待馬塞勒斯（Marcellus）地區資料中心周圍盆地需求的增加？

So just any real time conversations perspective and a mark to market of your views as he kept on the forefront of this.

因此，任何即時對話的觀點以及你的觀點的市場標記，因為他始終處於這一領域的最前沿。

Yes.

是的。

So, we lay out sort of our plan on 16.

所以，我們在 16 日制定了我們的計劃。

We're seeing between 10 and 18 Bcf a day of demand growth for natural gas due to power some of the real times data that we're looking at because this is the question is a I don't know, power generations coming, what percentage of that is going to be natural gas.

我們看到天然氣需求每天增長 10 到 18 Bcf，原因是我們正在查看一些即時數據，因為這是一個我不知道的問題，發電即將到來，其中一部分將是天然氣。

So like a lot of you were looking at the orders that are coming in for nat gas turbines.

就像你們很多人都在關注天然氣渦輪機的訂單一樣。

And you see one of the largest turbine manufacturer in the world, Mitsubishi seeing a 50% increase in their orders are 90%.

作為世界上最大的渦輪機製造商之一，三菱的訂單增加了 50%，成長了 90%。

So while this stuff isn't making the headlines of how much market share natural gas is taking, the orders are building up and in strengthening that natural gas is going to continue to be the workhorse of that as a lot of this power demand.

因此，雖然這些東西並沒有成為天然氣佔據多少市場份額的頭條新聞，但訂單正在增加，隨著電力需求的增加，天然氣將繼續成為其中的主力。

And just looking at the baseline of what we've done over the last 10 years means natural gas and power demand, Tom needs requiring 14 Bcf a day.

只要看看我們過去 10 年所做的基線意味著天然氣和電力需求，Tom 每天需要 14 Bcf。

That's what we've done over the last decade.

這就是我們過去十年所做的事情。

Not a lot of people have talked about it about that.

沒有多少人談論過這一點。

That was largely driven by coal to gas switching, which is still a theme going forward.

這主要是由煤改氣推動的，這仍然是未來的主題。

And now you add on to the power generation growth from AI. and it's not too hard to believe some of these numbers that were put forward.

現在，人工智慧也促進了發電量的成長。不難相信其中一些提出的數字。

Toby, we've seen we've seen in nuclear restart in PKMBC. and some talk about at the license three extensions on the nuclear side as well.

托比，我們已經看到 PKMBC 的核重啟。還有一些人在許可證中談到了核方面的三項擴展。

As you think about competition for that natural gas demand, how do you think about the alternatives, whether it's renewables or nuclear and Deb?

當您考慮天然氣需求的競爭時，您如何看待替代方案，無論是再生能源還是核能和債務？

And how does that fit into the mat?

那它是如何融入墊子的呢？

Fourth for the TAMP around this market on nuclear, there was some we looked at what would be the other options like three Mile Island that could come back online.

第四，對於圍繞核電市場的 TAMP，我們研究了其他一些選項，例如可以重新上線的三英里島。

Keeping in mind some power demand growth investments is around, call it 70 to 80 gigawatts.

請記住，一些電力需求成長投資即將到來，我們稱之為 70 至 80 吉瓦。

Our view on this, looking at similar nuclear facilities that would have the potential to add about three gigawatts of power demand relative to what's required.

我們對此的看法是，考慮到類似的核設施，這些設施有可能相對於所需電力需求增加約 3 吉瓦的電力需求。

It's a drop in the bucket.

這只是杯水車薪。

It's not meaningful, um, and it still needs to happen from.

這沒有意義，嗯，它仍然需要發生。

But the world is going to be looking for fresh, reliable, affordable energy sources of that's going to be that's going to mean more natural gas.

但世界將尋找新鮮、可靠、負擔得起的能源，這將意味著更多的天然氣。

And that's what we're seeing in the order books when people are looking to pick up disturbance.

當人們希望受到干擾時，這就是我們在訂單簿中看到的情況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question comes from Jake Roberts with TPH.

下一個問題來自 TPH 的 Jake Roberts。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Morning.

早晨。

Morning.

早晨。

Just wanted to see if we can hit on in early 2025 work.

只是想看看我們能否在 2025 年初開始工作。

But looking at Q3 and Q4, excluding shut-ins, I think the run rate closer to 24 hundred and should should the market be thinking about slight declines on your production based in 2025, given the earlier comments kind of a 21 hundred level net of the sale?

但看看第三季度和第四季度，不包括停工，我認為運行率接近 2400，市場是否應該考慮 2025 年產量略有下降，因為之前的評論是 2100 水平淨值出售？

Yes.

是的。

Look, I think from where we are within the year, I think we're in a period of time right now.

聽著，我認為從我們一年內的情況來看，我認為我們現在正處於一個時期。

So I do expect that to come up a little bit is we get into 2025.

所以我確實預計到 2025 年這個數字會有所提高。

And but I would say year over year, we see it is relatively flat growth on our remaining assets that we've not divested.

但我想說的是，我們發現我們尚未剝離的剩餘資產的成長相對穩定。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then lastly, I know there are always noted the production and capital impact from the non-op sale.

最後，我知道人們總是注意到非經營性銷售對生產和資本的影響。

Should we be thinking about any changes to operating expense?

我們是否應該考慮營運費用的任何變化？

No, I wouldn't say materially at this time.

不，我現在不會說實質的。

I appreciate the Congress.

我感謝國會。

Your next question comes from Clay, our combined with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自我們與美國銀行聯合的克萊。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Thanks for getting me on.

謝謝你讓我上來。

My first question is on operational synergies, water in particular, can you talk a little bit more about how putting water in the right places can help you drop one frac crew?

我的第一個問題是關於營運協同效應，特別是水，你能多談談如何將水放在正確的地方可以幫助你放下一名壓裂人員嗎？

Are you simply cutting the standby time?

您只是縮短待機時間嗎？

When could this happen?

什麼時候會發生這種事？

And what does the impact on capital look like?

對資本的影響是什麼樣的？

Yes, it's pretty simple.

是的，這很簡單。

When we look at the driving factor for completions efficiencies, it's the amount of FEED contract per day that is driven by the the amount of hours that were pumping per day.

當我們研究完井效率的驅動因素時，每天的 FEED 合約量是由每天泵送的小時數驅動的。

Um, so we look at the NPT. and when we're not pumping for us a big part of that nonproductive time, which was waiting on water, we've eliminated a large part of that.

嗯，所以我們看看《不擴散核武條約》。當我們沒有為我們抽水的大部分非生產時間（即等待水）時，我們就消除了其中的很大一部分。

So you take out a lot of NVT. time.

所以你拿出很多NVT。時間。

You replace that with a pump time and your 40s per day increases.

如果用吸乳時間代替，每天的吸乳時間就會增加 40 秒。

So if you can increase your efficiencies by 30% and you're running three frac crews, you've positioned yourself to get the same amount of footage and have 33% less frac crews.

因此，如果您可以將效率提高 30%，並且運行三名壓裂人員，那麼您就可以在獲得相同數量的鏡頭的同時減少 33% 的壓裂人員。

And that's what we're set up come in and monitoring the bake that into the 25 plan.

這就是我們所設定的並監控將其納入 25 計劃的情況。

From a cost perspective that could translate to about $50 per foot of savings are roughly $50 million per year of operational efficiency value.

從成本角度來看，每英尺節省約 50 美元，相當於每年約 5,000 萬美元的營運效率價值。

And Tobey, to clarify, is this in your synergy target, I guess from our perspective, it's hard to tease out what the synergy and with the natural evolution of your business and as opposed over time, that's going to make it more blurry.

托比，需要澄清的是，這是否在您的協同目標中，我想從我們的角度來看，很難弄清楚協同作用是什麼，隨著您業務的自然發展，隨著時間的推移，這會讓它變得更加模糊。

But just to be clear, is this the target or or is this separate that would be separate?

但需要明確的是，這是目標還是單獨的目標？

That was not included in our synergies.

這不包括在我們的協同效應中。

I appreciate the clarity on the second one goes to gas balances and it gets it's two parts.

我很欣賞第二個關於氣體平衡的清晰性，它分為兩個部分。

First, can you remind us on curtailments how much you currently have and how you're thinking about bringing that back and you look at the winter in-basin pricing?

首先，您能否提醒我們關於削減的問題，您目前有多少，以及您如何考慮將其恢復，以及您對冬季流域內定價的看法？

And then on NDP. understanding is that it can flow more fully in the winter.

然後是新民主黨。理解是冬天可以流動得更充分。

Tom, can you give us an idea what that looks like?

湯姆，你能告訴我們那是什麼樣子嗎？

And then what that what could that look look at that need for headline in basin production numbers?

那麼，對於流域產量資料的標題需求，我們能看到什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So on the first question of what we have curtailed, we've been fully back online for several weeks, actually.

因此，關於我們所限制的第一個問題，實際上，我們已經完全恢復在線幾週了。

So I wouldn't expect when you're looking at your gas balances, that EQT is bringing back on additional one Bcf a day, which we had curtailed at the peak.

因此，當您查看 Gas 餘額時，我不會指望 EQT 每天會額外增加 1 Bcf，而我們在高峰時已經削減了這一量。

But that's already back, it's been back on.

但那已經回來了，已經回來了。

And so I think is everyone's trying to look at their gas models.

所以我認為每個人都在嘗試研究他們的氣體模型。

I think that's a pretty important factor in look, we did that because the market showed that there is a need for that gas.

我認為這是一個非常重要的因素，我們這樣做是因為市場顯示需要這種天然氣。

It was above our price targets.

它高於我們的價格目標。

And though is you look at our improved guidance for Q4 for a lot of that's because the assumptions we had previously made for curtailments in October just haven't played out.

不過，您是否會看到我們對第四季度改進的指導，其中很大一部分是因為我們先前在 10 月做出的​​削減假設尚未實現。

We just haven't needed to curtail in response to what the market's told us.

我們只是不需要根據市場告訴我們的資訊而削減開支。

And so that's why you've seen that move up in addition to better well performance.

這就是為什麼除了更好的油井性能之外，您還看到了產量的上升。

And then in your NBP question, look at the assumption we are making is effectively that between December and February, VP. should flowed at at full capacity or Nerites as you see that, that's hard open up and there's that downstream demand.

然後在你的 NBP 問題中，看看我們所做的假設實際上是在 12 月到 2 月之間，VP。正如你所看到的那樣，應該以滿載或 Nerites 的速度流動，這很難開放，而且存在下游需求。

So that's effectively what you'll see baked into our guidance us and appreciate that.

因此，這實際上就是您將在我們的指導中看到的內容，並對此表示讚賞。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Your next question comes from David Deckelbaum with TD. Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD 的 David Deckelbaum。考恩.

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Morning, Toby.

早上好，托比。

Thanks for taking my questions this morning.

感謝您今天早上回答我的問題。

I was I was hoping that you guys could give a little bit of color and update around the regulated asset sales process of just given the success of the non-op now, how do you think about time line?

我希望你們能夠圍繞受監管的資產銷售流程提供一些色彩和更新，鑑於現在非操作的成功，您如何看待時間軸？

I know that you have a year of 25 that target.

我知道你今年的目標是 25 歲。

So presumably, I guess you have roughly, I guess, 15 months or so before we get down to that level.

因此，我猜想，在我們達到這個水平之前，大約還有 15 個月左右的時間。

This is something you want to get it done sooner than later.

這是你想要盡快完成的事情。

And then as you think about selling those a portion of those assets, is there a right ownership percentage that you would like to retain outside of just the controlling stake?

然後，當您考慮出售部分資產時，除了控股權之外，您是否希望保留適當的所有權比例？

Look, I think we've provided pretty good clarity of the structure that we're pursuing in prior calls.

聽著，我認為我們已經非常清楚地說明了我們在之前的通話中所追求的結構。

We've been pretty open about that.

我們對此一直持開放態度。

I don't think there's going to be a deviation from what we outlined previously.

我認為這不會與我們之前概述的內容有任何偏差。

There has been robust interest.

人們對此產生了濃厚的興趣。

I said a cost of capital that we are seeing and it exceeded our expectations.

我說的是我們看到的資本成本，它超出了我們的預期。

I think the quantity of Canada, there's high quality, natural gas gas pipes like this is above expectations.

我認為加拿大這樣的高品質天然氣管道的數量超出了預期。

And I think that's really what's pushing forward to our expectations, like we said in prepared remarks of when when a deal gets done.

我認為這確實是推動我們期望的因素，就像我們在準備好的關於何時達成協議的評論中所說的那樣。

But beyond that, look, we're in discussions with parties are working through that.

但除此之外，我們正在與各方討論解決這個問題。

We hope it's sooner than later, but it's certainly above our original expectations were ahead of our original expectations.

我們希望它早點到來，但它肯定超出了我們最初的預期，超出了我們最初的預期。

Which initially we had to be in the first half of next year.

最初我們必須在明年上半年進行。

We expect that to probably get done before the end of this into this year.

我們預計這可能會在今年年底前完成。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

If I could just ask one more.

如果我能再問一個就好了。

You obviously are I know the industry has focused on this, a I, um, power-generation somatic and you talked about obviously the regionalization of demand with a lot of that proliferating in the Southeast for EQT has a ton of egress, VMBP. and expansion.

你顯然是我知道這個行業一直在關注這個，我，嗯，發電體細胞，你顯然談到了需求的區域化，其中大量的需求在東南部激增，因為 EQT 有大量的出口，VMBP。和擴展。

I know that you guys I have already guided to, obviously benefiting from the firm demand, the contracts that you have in place in late 27 with the Transco expansion with utilities.

我知道我已經指導過你們，顯然受益於堅定的需求，你們在 27 年底與公用事業公司簽訂的 Transco 擴張合約。

As we think about AI and its commercial impact of EQTA., you talked about and benefiting from this directly is sort of what is like the remaining quantum.

當我們思考人工智慧及其 EQTA 的商業影響時，您談到並直接從中受益有點像剩餘的量子。

If you see this proliferation in the southeast of how much more we could see contracted on top of those firm sales.

如果你看到東南部的這種擴散，我們可以看到除了這些堅定的銷售之外，還有多少合約出現收縮。

And that is something that has me it's more of a 2030 and beyond expectation or should we expect the potential for incremental basis improvement between now and the end of the decade?

這讓我覺得這更像是 2030 年的事情，超出了預期，或者我們應該期待從現在到本十年末逐步改善基礎的潛力？

Yes, great question.

是的，很好的問題。

So in our view on Appalachian demand and include West is taken or is it really exported out of face and plus in-basin demand, we think between now and the end of this decade, that should increase to from about 35, 36 Bcf a day to about 42.

因此，根據我們對阿巴拉契亞需求（包括西部）的看法，或者它真的是面外出口以及盆地內需求，我們認為從現在到本十年末，這一需求應該會增加到每天約35 、36 Bcf至約42。

So effectively adding the whole energy to key in terms of demand.

因此，有效地將全部精力集中在需求方面。

And I think that is overlooked in many ways.

我認為這一點在很多方面都被忽略了。

And really in our in our assumption, no new pipes are getting the Delta side from the expansion we expect to pursue on NBC through the compression that we've talked about previously.

事實上，在我們的假設中，沒有新的管道能夠透過我們之前討論過的壓縮在 NBC 上實現的擴展中獲得 Delta 方面的支持。

Beyond that, it's really in-basin demand.

除此之外，這確實是盆地內的需求。

And when we step back and think about how does that play out in impact, our business is either one of two ways is probably a combination of both.

當我們退一步思考這如何產生影響時，我們的業務要么是兩種方式之一，要么是兩者的結合。

one.

一。

We can get tightened in basin differentials, but it all it also allows us to grow.

我們可以收緊流域差異，但這也讓我們能夠成長。

Sales were up really a price times volume business.

銷售額的成長確實是價格乘以銷量的結果。

We expect to see benefits on both sides of that.

我們期望看到雙方都受益。

And now in our new integrated business model, we effectively control a lot of the toll roads in the basin.

現在，在我們新的綜合業務模式中，我們有效地控制了流域內的許多收費公路。

We expect to be the ones that probably disproportionately benefit from that growth where we can connect our low cost decades of supply to those different sources of demand as they come online.

我們希望能夠從這種成長中獲得更大的收益，我們可以將數十年的低成本供應與不同的需求來源連結起來。

So that's something that we're hyper-focused on.

所以這是我們高度關注的事情。

And that's one reason we haven't gone out to other plays because we do see that backdrop playing out in Appalachia.

這就是我們沒有去看其他戲劇的原因之一，因為我們確實看到阿巴拉契亞的背景正在上演。

And I think we're as well-positioned as anybody to benefit from that.

我認為我們和其他人一樣有能力從中受益。

Appreciate that color.

欣賞那個顏色。

Our next question comes from Josh Silverstein with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬許·西爾弗斯坦。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

And what does the last quarter?

最後一季發生了什麼事？

You talked about an initial outlook for spending next year on the three to six range.

您談到了明年在三到六個範圍內的支出的初步前景。

Given the efficiency gains that you guys have seen this year than out of sales and a pending midstream sale.

考慮到今年你們所看到的效率提升，超過了銷售和待定的中游銷售。

Do you think of the lower end of that range is now more likely relative to the initial views.

您認為相對於最初的觀點，該範圍的下限現在更有可能嗎？

So if you're at at a high level kind of bridge that and just start with the midpoint for ease of discussion, the midpoint of that range we gave out was 2.45 than non-op sale, removes about 75 million out of 2025.

因此，如果您處於較高水平的橋樑，並且為了便於討論而從中點開始，我們給出的範圍的中點是非運營銷售的 2.45，在 2025 年減少了約 7500 萬。

On the efficiency gains we referenced in prepared remarks, we equate to about 50 million of additional savings beyond what we had assumed at the time.

關於我們在準備好的評論中提到的效率提升，我們相當於比我們當時的假設額外節省了約 5000 萬美元。

So I would expect that to probably be towards the lower end of that range at this point in time.

因此，我預計此時可能會接近該範圍的下限。

But look, we're still working through it and to figure out exactly how we might be even put some of those savings into accelerating some of the midstream synergy.

但是看，我們仍在努力解決這個問題，並確切地弄清楚我們如何將其中一些節省的資金用於加速中游協同效應。

So it's a work in process, but I'd say directionally, things are moving to the positive side of that range that we looked at preview.

所以這是一項正在進行的工作，但我想說的是，從方向上來說，事情正在朝著我們預覽的範圍的積極方向發展。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And sorry to come back to the curtailments, but I'm curious what specifically in the markets you guys see to bring back all of your volumes that were previously curtailed Henry Hub in the fourth quarter, pricing is lower versus when you announced the 45 Bcf of expected for settlements for the fourth Q quarter.

很抱歉回到削減問題，但我很好奇你們在市場上具體看到了什麼，以恢復之前在第四季度亨利中心削減的所有產量，定價比你們宣布 45 Bcf 時要低預計第四季度的結算。

Is it something in Appalachia?

這是阿巴拉契亞的事嗎？

Is there something else or what is it that you guys are looking at it that we should be thinking about going forward, the kind of adjust our quarterly numbers for you guys?

還有其他什麼事情，或者你們正在考慮什麼，我們應該考慮繼續前進，為你們調整我們的季度數據嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So all the volumes, we curtailed volumes that we are selling into Appalachian market and those are in excess beyond what we have had a database.

因此，我們減少了向阿巴拉契亞市場銷售的所有數量，這些數量超出了我們的資料庫數量。

And so the number we're looking at in Appalachia is about a buck 50 it into.

因此，我們在阿巴拉契亞看到的數字約為 50 美元。

So when you see into above that, you should assume we're generally going to be flowing at full capacity.

因此，當您看到上述情況時，您應該假設我們通常會滿載運轉。

When it gets below that, you'll see us pull volumes off them market and that it at a higher level is really our cash costs, excluding this sort of integrated midstream payments, we pay ourselves plus F & D about that, but 50 level.

當它低於這個水平時，你會看到我們從市場上撤掉交易量，而在更高的水平上，這實際上是我們的現金成本，不包括這種綜合的中游支付，我們支付自己加上F & D 的費用，但50 水平。

And so when you kind of put that all together, I think about what it means for the gas market.

因此，當你將所有這些放在一起時，我會思考這對天然氣市場意味著什麼。

I think there's kind of three bands of the way you'll see there market evolve in the next 12 months, call it, I think you will contain this for a ping-pong between $2 $3 until all curtailments are back online because as you approach three, all of that should come back online.

我認為在接下來的12 個月裡，你會看到市場的發展分為三個階段，我想你會在2 美元到3 美元之間打乒乓球，直到所有削減都重新上線，因為當你接近時第三，所有這些都應該恢復在線。

I think there's a second band between probably three increased 50, where you see some of the short-cycle docs and deferred tills sitting out there.

我認為在大約 3 個增加的 50 之間還有第二個區間，您可以在其中看到一些短週期文件和延期收銀。

This of our peers have I would expect that the band with some of that starts coming online.

我希望我們的同行中的一些樂團能夠開始上線。

So you see that additional resistance level.

所以你會看到額外的阻力位。

But I think once you get beyond that need to add real activity and there's a delayed effect to that, as we saw on the downside is delayed effective production falling.

但我認為，一旦超出了增加實際活動的需求，就會產生延遲效應，正如我們所看到的缺點是延遲有效產量下降。

There's a delayed effect to production at resuming growth when Active Beauty is added.

添加活性美容產品後，生產恢復成長的效果會延遲。

And I think the longer production stays down where it is them the more difficult it is going to be it bring it back.

我認為生產停滯的時間越長，恢復生產的難度就越高。

So going back, that's 21 that we referenced.

回顧過去，我們引用的是 21。

I think we're likely to set the kind of adapt below $3 level until you see a lot of this production back in very quickly.

我認為我們可能會將這種改編設定在 3 美元以下的水平，直到你看到很多這樣的作品很快回歸。

You're going to snap towards the high end to that level as you get towards the back half of two, 25 and into 2026, which is also why we hedge the way we have.

當你進入 2 年後半段（即 25 年）並進入 2026 年時，你將迅速達到該水平的高端，這也是我們採用現有方式進行對沖的原因。

We remain unhedged in 2026 and highly exposed in Q4 next year.

我們在 2026 年仍保持未對沖的狀態，並在明年第四季面臨高度風險。

But I think it is going to be it has to get back to that level at putting aside how when it goes.

但我認為，無論何時發生，它都必須回到那個水平。

It's just hard to predict.

這只是很難預測。

Scott of silicon.

矽的斯科特。

Our next question comes from Barry Jonas with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Barry Jonas。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning team.

早上好，團隊。

You mentioned that the production should be kind of directionally flattish on the remaining upstream assets, historically that we've seen some operators attempt to take advantage of shoulder months shape their production.

您提到，剩餘上游資產的產量應該在方向上持平，從歷史上看，我們看到一些營運商試圖利用平淡月份來調整其產量。

Should we expect to see that come about naturally as you use curtailments throughout the year next year?

當您明年全年使用限電措施時，我們是否應該期望看到這種情況自然發生？

Or is that strategy just not viable anymore because of the loss of inefficiencies you tried to bring all those wells on at once?

或者策略是否不再可行，因為您試圖同時啟動所有這些油井，但效率低？

Yes, that's never really been our strategy.

是的，這從來就不是我們的策略。

I mean, we've always done really focused on on most of that really do have sufficient lead us to operate and execute, which is not related to start stop nature of that operations cadence, but you need to need to execute to pursue that strategy.

我的意思是，我們一直專注於其中的大部分內容，確實有足夠的能力引導我們進行操作和執行，這與操作節奏的開始停止性質無關，但您需要執行才能實現該策略。

So I don't I don't think, you know, at least from EQT, you're going to see that sort of a seasonal up and down that you see in the market more broadly, we're out of Appalachia and more broadly.

所以我不認為，你知道，至少從殷拓來看，你會看到你在更廣泛的市場上看到的那種季節性上漲和下跌，我們已經走出了阿巴拉契亞等地區廣泛地說。

And I think for us, we tried to run that pretty consistently.

我認為對我們來說，我們試圖保持一致。

You will see like like in Q3 this year, there are some quarters that will be higher than it to be flat until there's a real need in the market for that production, which I think you'll see in terms of Henry Hub pricing rising and local basis being relatively tight.

你會看到，就像今年第三季一樣，有一些季度的價格會比持平，直到市場真正需要該產品，我認為你會看到亨利中心的定價上漲，當地基礎相對緊張。

Makes sense.

有道理。

And then this on a little more more pointed on the on the timing of the asset sale.

然後，這對資產出售的時機有更多的關注。

Obviously, you've got a pretty strong price on the non-op, but we've got a few questions on maybe selling assets with low capital requirements during the lower near-term gas pricing.

顯然，非營運價格相當強勁，但我們對在較低的近期天然氣定價期間出售資本要求較低的資產有一些疑問。

So maybe you could talk about how do you balance selling assets versus achieving your lead average target or maybe or buyers just willing to look past near term gas prices.

因此，也許您可以談論如何平衡出售資產與實現領先平均目標，或者買家只是願意關注近期天然氣價格。

And we should all just everybody started looking at 26.

我們應該讓每個人都開始關注 26。

We made a deal with AMD?

我們和 AMD 達成了協議？

Yes, I'd characterize it at least in our view of the assets we sold this way and a under how we would have underwrote it.

是的，我至少會從我們以這種方式出售的資產以及我們將如何承保的角度來描述它。

We still see it as like a three PPV. 10 before-tax type value at about three 50 gas.

我們仍然將其視為三人 PPV。 10型稅前價值在三50汽油左右。

So we felt like despite what upfront price it is on the strip, we got we have pretty good value for it.

所以我們覺得，儘管大道上的前期價格是多少，但我們還是覺得它物有所值。

And that includes value for the Upper Marcellus, which we think in Northeast Pennsylvania in the next couple of years is going to be predominantly driven by Upper Marcellus development.

這包括上馬塞勒斯的價值，我們認為未來幾年賓州東北部的價值將主要由上馬塞勒斯的發展所驅動。

And there's just not a lot of core lower left.

左下角沒有太多核心。

And so I think for us, we're really happy with it on just an intrinsic value basis.

所以我認為對我們來說，僅僅從內在價值的角度來看，我們真的很滿意。

And you know, taking those assets, specifically the next five years, we estimated would generate about $250 million or 750 million of free cash when we receive 1 to 1.25 billion right now without the effect of discounting.

你知道，如果我們現在收到 100 到 12.5 億美元而不考慮折現的影響，那麼這些資產，特別是未來五年，我們估計會產生大約 2.5 億美元或 7.5 億美元的自由現金。

And so again, we feel like really happen no matter how you kind of valuations pretty strong.

再說一遍，無論您的估值如何相當強勁，我們都覺得這種情況真的會發生。

If you compare it to the deal that we did also with equity or six months prior on yad two real differences, one back into that curve has come down probably $0.5.

如果你將其與我們也進行股權交易或六個月前進行的交易進行比較，則有兩個真正的差異，回到該曲線的交易可能下降了 0.5 美元。

So that impacts value that prior deal also had the asset swap component.

因此，這會影響先前交易中也包含資產交換部分的價值。

And so that obviously monies that a little bit that was also a strategic asset for them out of US onshore operations is probably some element of a premium for that.

因此，顯然，從美國陸上業務中獲得的一點對他們來說也是戰略資產的資金可能是溢價的一部分。

But overall, we feel like it's a it's a really strong outcome out of the entirety of the process.

但總的來說，我們覺得這是整個過程中一個非常強大的結果。

And just to clarify on the on the A. and do the work both ways if you were saying that you've got value for later periods of strip pricing, are you seeing that on the other side, when you're looking at potentially acquiring assets, does that does that work with sellers as well?

只是為了澄清一下，如果你說你在後期的剝離定價中具有價值，那麼從另一方面來說，當你考慮潛在的收購時，你是否也看到了這一點？ ？

It's all CapEx.

這都是資本支出。

I think 80, it just depends.

我認為80，這要看情況。

It's kind of hard to say.

有點難說。

And it just depends on the environment.

這僅取決於環境。

And I think for core assets, you're more likely to see value for those that that longer term inventory.

我認為對於核心資產，你更有可能看到那些長期庫存的價值。

And but I think in the mode we are in right now.

但我認為按照我們現在所處的模式。

Now we've gone through it would tell you now like to think of as like a transformation or the Keno last five years, that M&A has been a very key part of that path to transform EQT to the into the lowest cost producer with most inventory.

現在我們已經經歷過它會告訴你現在想像過去五年的轉型或基諾一樣，併購一直是 EQT 轉型為成本最低、庫存最多的生產商的道路上非常關鍵的一部分。

I think where we're at today, it is no other assets out there that compare to what we've built.

我認為我們今天所處的位置，沒有其他資產可以與我們所建立的資產相比。

So I don't think we're as focused on M&A going forward.

所以我認為我們不會那麼專注於未來的併購。

I think we look at if we had extra cash available, where can we actually put that to work acquisitively and by the most duration of inventory at the lowest cost and this just buying shares back historically, we haven't really had that option because we didn't to our business wasn't the character of what it is now.

我認為我們會考慮是否有額外的可用現金，我們實際上可以在哪裡將其用於收購工作，並以最低的成本以最長的庫存期限，而這只是歷史上回購股票，我們實際上沒有這個選擇，因為我們過去我們的生意並不是現在這樣的。

But I think going forward, that's what you're going to see us focused pretty heavily on at once we clear the balance sheet and ensure that through the cycle, we have the ability to do that with confidence.

但我認為，展望未來，一旦我們清理了資產負債表，並確保在整個週期中，我們有能力充滿信心地做到這一點，你就會看到我們非常關注這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our final question for today comes from Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自諾埃爾·帕克斯和圖伊兄弟。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

I was really interested to hear your comments about Tom.

我真的很想聽聽你對湯姆的評論。

Just as you have become more and more integrated again, your thoughts about volatility going forward and dumb, do you see us reaching a point where this greater volatility winds up reflected in the script?

正如你再次變得越來越一體化，你對未來波動性的想法是愚蠢的，你是否認為我們已經達到了這種更大的波動性最終反映在劇本中的地步？

I'm thinking about how low the liquidity is out, you know, beyond a year or so compared to what we saw in prior areas registrations, more speculative capital out there.

我在想，與我們在先前領域註冊中看到的情況相比，一年左右的時間裡，流動性有多低，那裡有更多的投機資本。

So just curious what your thoughts on that.

所以只是好奇你對此有何想法。

I think you I mean, what and look what the market will be short of its storage capacity and the way to incentivize more storage capacity to get billed, especially like short-cycle self storage is unique seasonal spreads to widen out and sought.

我想你的意思是，市場將缺乏儲存容量，以及激勵更多儲存容量計費的方式，特別是像短週期自助倉儲一樣，獨特的季節性價差會擴大和尋求。

So I think is the market evolves in the years ahead.

所以我認為市場在未來幾年會持續發展。

I think you will see summer winter spreads widened out quite a bit from where they are because that's the incentive to build that storage capacity.

我認為你會看到夏季冬季價差比現在擴大很多，因為這是建立儲存容量的動力。

I think the other place you will see that begin it expresses and the options market.

我認為你會看到它所表達的另一個地方是期權市場。

And so that's what I'd be looking towards in terms of like how the market in a price that extra volatility.

這就是我所期待的市場價格如何出現額外的波動。

Scott, it storage again, always on always comes from the far sooner or later and bomb.

斯科特，它再次存儲，始終開啟總是來自遠方遲早的炸彈。

Just wondering as you one of our outline your strategy around curtailments, and I'm just how close can be useful.

只是想知道，當您之一概述您關於削減的策略時，我只是想知道有多接近才有用。

Tom, we do do any scenario that you look at contemplate the possibility of LNG capacity that had been had been planned getting pushed out and its startup.

湯姆，我們確實會考慮您所看到的任何情況，考慮已計劃的液化天然氣產能被推遲和啟動的可能性。

And with your strategy, I just trying to get a sense of whether that could actually be something favorable for you is some sort of that demand burst some given your low cost structure and everything does get delayed or more or less neutral effect, if that happens on gas prices would would would react much more lower prices.

透過你的策略，我只是想了解這是否真的對你有利，是某種需求爆發，考慮到你的低成本結構，如果發生這種情況，一切都會被延遲或或多或少的中性影響對天然氣價格的反應將是更低的價格。

And I think it's going to reflect on why we work so hard to position this business really get our cost structure to where it is to withstand those low-cost environment and not have the correct sale activity.

我認為這將反思為什麼我們如此努力地定位這項業務，真正使我們的成本結構能夠承受那些低成本環境，並且沒有正確的銷售活動。

I mean, I think it's just a matter of time for this gas demand comes and being able to get through those troughs and remain unhedged, you can take advantage of higher prices when that demand does come on is how we've set up the business.

我的意思是，我認為這種天然氣需求的到來只是時間問題，能夠度過這些低谷並保持不受對沖，當需求確實出現時，您可以利用更高的價格，這就是我們開展業務的方式。

I think it's the volatility that will come, whether it's LNG or or weather event ends or geopolitical instances mean step back and look at the last few years, we've seen some major things happen that have created some some some up pretty big opportunities.

我認為波動將會到來，無論是液化天然氣還是天氣事件的結束，還是地緣政治事件，都意味著退一步看看過去幾年，我們已經看到發生了一些重大事情，這些事情創造了一些相當大的機會。

We're busy in the business to be able to take advantage of those.

我們正忙於業務，以便能夠利用這些優勢。

And I think to your prior question on like pricing in the strip, I think it's the dynamic that we've proven in the third quarter that being able to curtail opportunistically as translate to higher realized pricing.

我認為，對於你之前關於地帶定價的問題，我認為這是我們在第三季證明的動態，能夠減少機會主義，從而轉化為更高的實現定價。

I think that opportunities that would be hard to model when you look at companies and just pick a gas price because we are going to be moving our volumes, curtailing them and and and optimizing for better pricing.

我認為，當你觀察公司並選擇天然氣價格時，很難對機會進行建模，因為我們將改變我們的產量，減少它們，並優化以獲得更好的定價。

Noel of your question, and we tend to think about what exactly you mean by some of this to your question is getting asked, for example, and Golden Pass or other facility is getting delayed total call at the back half of next year.

諾埃爾，我們傾向於思考您所提出的某些問題的確切含義，例如，黃金通行證或其他設施將在明年下半年延遲總呼叫。

I think one of the most foolish things for the gas market right now is it all that capacity comes online in a very short amount of time.

我認為目前天然氣市場最愚蠢的事情之一就是所有產能都在很短的時間內上線。

So that's still a really comes online towards the end of 2025, along with other facilities instead of it slowly and progressively, I think three asset comes online in very short order over 365.

因此，到 2025 年底，這仍然是一個真正上線的項目，與其他設施一起上線，而不是緩慢而漸進地上線，我認為三個資產會在 365 個以上的非常短的時間內上線。

That's a Tcf of incremental demand.

這是增量需求的 Tcf。

Producers simply cannot respond that quickly.

生產商根本無法那麼快做出反應。

And that is a that is a material swing in U.S. balances.

這是美國收支平衡的重大波動。

If that happens actually for a while, it is a little more bearish near term, I think once that happens and as you get into 2026, that is unbelievably bullish on.

如果這種情況確實發生一段時間，那麼短期內會更加看跌，我認為一旦這種情況發生，當你進入 2026 年時，就會令人難以置信地看漲。

So look, we're going to be opportunistic.

所以看，我們會投機取巧。

I think we're going to be well positioned for whatever happens either way.

我認為無論發生什麼情況，我們都將處於有利位置。

And but that is that is kind of the silver lining to some of this getting delayed and really getting stuck together all the time potentially in the back half of next year.

但這是一線希望，因為有些事情可能會被推遲，並且可能會在明年下半年陷入困境。

Right.

正確的。

That was exactly what I was getting at your remark earlier about the longer prices stay stay low and it suppresses overall industry activity, the harder it is to come back beyond docs and kills to build activity back to that.

這正是我之前從您的評論中得到的意思，即價格保持在低位的時間越長，它會抑制整個行業的活動，就越難恢復到超越文檔和殺戮來恢復活動的狀態。

We've got what kind of what I was thinking for banks.

我們已經了解了我對銀行的想法。

All right.

好的。

Thank you all for joining.

感謝大家的加入。

That concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

To me.

大部頭書。