EQT Corp (EQT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the EQT Fourth Quarter 2023 Quarterly Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to Cameron Horwitz, Managing Director of Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead.

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫雷吉娜，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此，我謹歡迎大家參加殷拓 2023 年第四季業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係與策略董事總經理卡梅倫‧霍維茲 (Cameron Horwitz)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and year-end 2023 earnings results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer. In a moment, Toby and Jeremy will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季和年底財報電話會議。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Toby Rice；和財務長傑里米·諾普。稍後，托比和傑里米將發表他們準備好的發言，隨後進行問答環節。

An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion.

更新的投資者簡報已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中引用某些幻燈片。

A replay of today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening. I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of the factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation, the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

從今晚開始，我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的重播。我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。由於昨天的收益報告、我們的投資者介紹、我們的 10-K 表格的風險因素部分以及我們向 SEC 提交的後續文件中描述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

Today's call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們最新的收益報告和投資者介紹，以了解有關此類措施的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的公認會計原則財務措施的調節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

這樣，我就把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone. Coming into 2023, I sat down with our leadership team, and we set our overarching corporate mission and goal for the year with 2 simple words: peak performance.

謝謝卡姆，大家早安。進入 2023 年，我與我們的領導團隊坐下來，用兩個簡單的字設定了今年的整體企業使命和目標：巔峰績效。

I wanted our fourth year since the takeover of EQT to be our best one yet, and the crew certainly came through in delivering on that mission. I want to take a few moments to briefly reflect on the incredible accomplishments from this organization that we achieved over the course of 2023.

我希望自收購 EQT 以來的第四年是我們迄今為止最好的一年，而我們的工作人員無疑完成了這項使命。我想花一些時間簡要回顧這個組織在 2023 年取得的令人難以置信的成就。

On the operations front, we set multiple drilling world records and achieved our highest completion efficiency pace ever, with 2023 monthly pumping hours per crew up more than 15% year-over-year. Importantly, this incredible operational pace came amid a 22% improvement in our 2023 EHS intensity, which was even better than our 15% target and underscores our unwavering commitment to safety at EQT.

在營運方面，我們創造了多項鑽井世界紀錄，並實現了有史以來最高的完井效率，2023 年每位船員每月的抽油時間年增超過 15%。重要的是，這令人難以置信的營運速度是在我們 2023 年 EHS 強度提高 22% 的背景下實現的，這甚至優於我們 15% 的目標，並突顯了我們 EQT 對安全的堅定承諾。

On the financial front, despite a challenging natural gas price environment, EQT generated nearly $880 million of free cash flow in 2023, retired north of $1.1 billion of debt and raised our base dividend by 5%. This financial performance is a clear demonstration of our advantaged position at the low end of the North American natural gas cost curve and highlights that EQT is poised to thrive regardless of where we are in the commodity cycle.

在財務方面，儘管天然氣價格環境充滿挑戰，殷拓集團仍於 2023 年創造了近 8.8 億美元的自由現金流，償還了 11 億美元以上的債務，並將基本股息提高了 5%。這項財務表現清楚地表明了我們在北美天然氣成本曲線低端的優勢地位，並突顯了殷拓無論處於大宗商品週期的哪個階段，都將蓬勃發展。

On the M&A front, we closed on the strategic acquisition of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream and integrated the assets at a record pace. Our team has wasted no time driving material operational performance improvement on the assets, with the latest EQT operated Marcellus drilling costs coming in more than $200 per foot or nearly 55% lower than Tug Hill operated wells. This recent performance suggests the potential for even more upside than the $150 per foot of well cost savings we discussed last quarter, which, as a reminder, is additive to $80 million of largely infrastructure-related synergies we originally announced with the deal.

在併購方面，我們完成了對 Tug Hill 和 XcL Midstream 的策略性收購，並以創紀錄的速度整合資產。我們的團隊不遺餘力地推動資產營運績效的實質改進，最新的 EQT 營運的 Marcellus 鑽井成本每英尺超過 200 美元，比 Tug Hill 營運的油井低近 55%。最近的表現表明，與我們上季度討論的每英尺150 美元的油井成本節省相比，它還有更大的潛力，提醒一下，這與我們最初宣布的與基礎設施相關的8000 萬美元協同效應是額外的。

On the marketing front, EQT's low-cost peer-leading inventory depth and environmental attributes enabled us to sign the largest long-term physical supply deals ever executed in the North American natural gas market with some of the country's leading utilities. With much stronger-than-expected power generation growth in many regions of the United States and natural gas providing the ideal low-carbon dispatchable complement to renewable generation, we expect gas-fired power demand will surprise the upside over the coming decade and EQT's unique ability to meet this demand should result in additional margin capture opportunities moving forward.

在行銷方面，殷拓的低成本、同業領先的庫存深度和環境屬性使我們能夠與該國一些領先的公用事業公司簽署北美天然氣市場有史以來最大的長期實體供應協議。由於美國許多地區的發電成長遠強於預期，天然氣為再生能源發電提供了理想的低碳可調度補充，我們預計燃氣發電需求在未來十年將出現令人驚訝的成長，並且殷拓獨特的滿足這項需求的能力應該會帶來更多的利潤獲取機會。

We also made material progress executing on our differentiated LNG strategy, leveraging our significant Gulf Coast firm transportation capacity to sign HOAs covering 2.5 million tons per annum of LNG tolling capacity or roughly 5% of our total natural gas production. Our more integrated approach to LNG exposure compared with peers gives us direct connectivity to end users of our gas globally, and we have seen strong interest from prospective international buyers.

我們在執行差異化液化天然氣策略方面也取得了實質進展，利用我們強大的墨西哥灣沿岸公司運輸能力簽署了 HOA，涵蓋每年 250 萬噸液化天然氣收費能力，約占我們天然氣總產量的 5%。與同行相比，我們對液化天然氣的接觸採取了更全面的方法，使我們能夠直接與全球天然氣的最終用戶建立聯繫，並且我們已經看到了潛在國際買家的濃厚興趣。

While there has been some noise around LNG permitting of late, the outcome of [COP 28] demonstrates the world has spoken deeming natural gas is critical in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security. It is abundantly clear that nations around the world currently powered by coal, desperately want and need greater access to natural gas and ultimately, political posturing will reconcile with this reality if we, as a society, are truly intent on achieving global climate goals.

儘管最近圍繞液化天然氣許可存在一些爭議，但 [COP 28] 的結果表明，全世界都認為天然氣對於促進能源轉型和確保能源安全至關重要。很明顯，目前以煤炭為動力的世界各國迫切希望並需要更多地獲得天然氣，如果我們作為一個社會真正致力於實現全球氣候目標，那麼最終，政治姿態將與這一現實相一致。

On the ESG front, we announced a first of its kind public-private forestry partnership with the state of West Virginia, which will create one of the highest quality, most verifiable nature-based carbon sequestration projects anywhere around the globe. We have already seen solid momentum on this project to date, and we are incrementally confident in EQT's ability to become the first energy company of meaningful scale in the world to achieve net zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions.

在 ESG 方面，我們宣布與西維吉尼亞州建立首個公私林業合作夥伴關係，這將在全球各地創建最高品質、最可驗證的基於自然的碳封存項目之一。到目前為止，我們已經看到該專案的強勁勢頭，並且我們對殷拓集團成為世界上第一家實現範圍 1 和 2 淨零排放的具有一定規模的能源公司的能力越來越有信心。

This impressive list of achievements is a showcase of what is possible when you combine a world-class asset base with an industry-leading digitally enabled team underpinned by a culture of excellence and teamwork.

這份令人印象深刻的成就清單展示了當您將世界一流的資產基礎與以卓越和團隊合作文化為基礎的行業領先的數位化團隊相結合時，一切可能實現。

Turning to our reserve report. EQT's 2023 proved reserves totaled 27.6 Tcfe, which was up 2.6 Tcfe relative to 2022, largely driven by additions from the Tug Hill acquisition.

轉向我們的儲備報告。 EQT 2023 年探明儲量總計 27.6 Tcfe，較 2022 年增加 2.6 Tcfe，這主要是由於收購 Tug Hill 後增加的。

Importantly, even with the SEC price deck dropping from over $6 per million Btu at year-end 2022 and to $2.64 at year-end 2023, EQT's proved reserves prior to the impact of Tug Hill were slightly higher year-over-year, underscoring the economic resiliency of our world-class low-cost Appalachian reserve base.

重要的是，即使 SEC 價格從 2022 年底的每百萬英熱單位 6 美元以上下降到 2023 年底的 2.64 美元，殷拓集團在塔格山影響之前的探明儲量仍同比略高，突顯了我們世界一流的低成本阿巴拉契亞儲備基地的經濟彈性。

Within our proved undeveloped reserve category of roughly 8 Tcfe, we have just 417 gross locations booked or roughly 3 years of development, representing only 10% of our derisked inventory of nearly 4,000 gross locations. It's also worth highlighting that we estimate an additional 2 Tcfe of reserves not captured in our bookings associated with our nonoperated position in Northeast Pennsylvania as we book limited PUDs on this asset, given we only have timing visibility out 3 to 6 months.

在我們已探明的未開發儲備類別（約 8 Tcfe）中，我們僅預訂了 417 個總地點或開發時間約為 3 年，僅占我們近 4,000 個總地點的去風險庫存的 10%。另外值得強調的是，我們估計還有2 Tcfe 的儲備未在我們的預訂中與我們在賓州東北部的非營運位置相關，因為我們對該資產預訂了有限的PUD，因為我們只能了解3到6 個月的時間可見度。

Additionally, we've taken a conservative stance with limited reserve bookings for Tug Hills go-forward Utica inventory in West Virginia, which should be a source of reserve upside over time. Using the year-end 2023 SEC price deck of just $2.64 per million BTU, the PV-10 of our proved reserves is approximately $12 billion. Assuming recent strip pricing, this value jumps to almost $23 billion. And again, this describes credit to just 3 years or 10% of our remaining inventory.

此外，我們採取了保守的立場，對西維吉尼亞州 Tug Hills 的 Utica 庫存進行了有限的儲備預訂，隨著時間的推移，這應該是儲備上漲的一個來源。以 2023 年底 SEC 價格每百萬 BTU 僅 2.64 美元計算，我們探明儲量的 PV-10 約為 120 億美元。假設最近的帶鋼定價，這一價值將躍升至近 230 億美元。再說一次，這描述了僅 3 年的信用或我們剩餘庫存的 10%。

I'd also note our reserve valuation is calculated prior to the impact of our firm transportation portfolio to the value accruing to EQT for marketing arrangements like the MVP firm sales contracts we announced last quarter are incremental to these PV-10 values.

我還要指出的是，我們的儲備估值是在我們的公司運輸投資組合對EQT 的營銷安排（例如我們上季度宣布的MVP 公司銷售合約）產生的價值產生影響之前計算的，這些合約是這些PV-10 價值的增量。

We see the consistency and economic resiliency reflected in our reserve report as an important channel check for investors that highlights EQT has among the highest quality, lowest cost natural gas asset baseanywhere in the world.

我們認為儲備報告中反映的一致性和經濟彈性是對投資者的重要管道檢查，突顯殷拓集團擁有世界上品質最高、成本最低的天然氣資產基礎。

Looking to 2024, we are initiating 2024 production guidance of 2,200 to 2,300 Bcfe, which includes some flexibility to curtail volumes should natural gas prices remain weak. Our program contemplates running 2 to 3 rigs, 3 to 4 frac crews and turning in line 110 to 140 net wells. As shown on Slide 6 of our investor deck, this activity level juxtaposed against our large production base underscores the incredible capital efficiency and quality of our assets, as EQT is generating the most gross operated production per rig of any natural gas operator in the United States by a wide margin.

展望 2024 年，我們啟動 2,200 至 2,300 Bcfe 的 2024 年產量指導，其中包括在天然氣價格持續疲軟時削減產量的一定靈活性。我們的計劃計劃運行 2 至 3 個鑽機、3 至 4 名壓裂人員，並投入 110 至 140 口淨井。正如我們投資者平台的幻燈片6 所示，這種活動水平與我們的大型生產基地並列，突顯了我們令人難以置信的資本效率和資產質量，因為EQT 的每台鑽機的總運營產量是美國所有天然氣營運商中最高的大幅領先。

Looking at our spending profile, we are setting a 2024 maintenance capital budget of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, including maintenance, land and infrastructure spending. We have also tactically allocated $200 million to $300 million for strategic growth projects across water infrastructure, gas gathering and land that are opportunistic in nature and highly symbiotic with our upstream operations. Jeremy will give more details later on, but these projects generate the best risk-adjusted returns in our portfolio, derisk our upstream execution, allow us to replenish inventory at extremely attractive costs and facilitate the compounding of capital for shareholder value creation.

從我們的支出情況來看，我們設定的 2024 年維護資本預算為 19.5 億至 20.5 億美元，包括維護、土地和基礎設施支出。我們也戰術性地撥款 2 億至 3 億美元用於水利基礎設施、天然氣收集和土地等領域的戰略成長項目，這些項目本質上是機會主義的，與我們的上游業務高度共生。傑里米稍後將提供更多細節，但這些項目在我們的投資組合中產生了最佳的風險調整回報，降低了我們上游執行的風險，使我們能夠以極具吸引力的成本補充庫存，並促進資本複利以創造股東價值。

At the midpoint of our maintenance capital and production guidance ranges, our implied 2024 maintenance capital efficiency equates to $0.89 per Mcfe. And our unhedged maintenance NYMEX free cash flow breakeven is $2.50 to $2.60 per million Btu.

在我們的維護資本和生產指導範圍的中點，我們隱含的 2024 年維護資本效率相當於每 Mcfe 0.89 美元。我們的未對沖維護 NYMEX 自由現金流損益平衡點為每百萬英熱單位 2.50 至 2.60 美元。

With contractual gathering rate reductions, the shallowing of our base decline, improving basis from the firm sales arrangements we announced last quarter and reductions in interest expense, our all-in NYMEX free cash flow breakeven price should be on a glide path down towards $2.30 per million Btu over the next several years.

隨著合約收集利率的降低、我們的基數跌幅的縮小、我們上季度宣布的堅定銷售安排的基礎改善以及利息支出的減少，我們的全部 NYMEX 自由現金流盈虧平衡價格應該會下滑至每股 2.30 美元未來幾年將達到100 萬英熱單位。

We believe this economic profile is in a class of its own relative to the rest of the industry, where we expect to see upward pressure on cost structure over this period associated with operators shifting to lower quality inventory in both the Haynesville and parts of Appalachia. This differentiation is highlighted by the fact that we project EQT will generate cumulative free cash flow of almost $9 billion over the next 5 years at a natural gas strip that averages approximately $3.40 per million BTU over this period.

我們認為，這種經濟狀況相對於該行業的其他行業來說是獨一無二的，我們預計在此期間，由於運營商轉向海恩斯維爾和阿巴拉契亞部分地區的低質量庫存，成本結構將面臨上行壓力。我們預計 EQT 將在未來 5 年內在天然氣地帶產生近 90 億美元的累積自由現金流，這一事實凸顯了這種差異，在此期間平均每百萬 BTU 約為 3.40 美元。

This gas price is roughly equivalent to the fully loaded corporate marginal cost of supply in the U.S. required to simply break even from a free cash flow perspective, let alone to generate returns for shareholders. Said another way, higher cost natural gas producers will at best generate no shareholder value at the current strip over the next 5 years while EQT is set to generate more than 40% of our enterprise value and free cash flow over the same time frame. This stark contrast underscores why cost structure is our North Star at EQT and why we strive not to be the biggest, but to be the highest quality, most resilient company that can generate durable free cash flow both in up cycles and in down cycles.

這個天然氣價格大致相當於美國滿載企業的邊際供應成本，從自由現金流的角度來看，只需實現收支平衡，更不用說為股東創造回報了。換句話說，未來 5 年內，成本較高的天然氣生產商最多不會在當前地帶產生任何股東價值，而殷拓集團將在同一時間段內創造超過 40% 的企業價值和自由現金流。這種鮮明的對比凸顯了為什麼成本結構是殷拓的北極星，以及為什麼我們不努力成為最大的公司，而是努力成為品質最高、最具彈性的公司，無論在上升週期還是在下降週期都能產生持久的自由現金流。

This is the essence of sustainability and value creation in a commodity business. And we believe our shareholders are uniquely positioned to reap the rewards of EQT's unrivaled combination of scale, peer-leading low-cost inventory depths and best-in-class emissions profile.

這是商品業務永續發展和價值創造的本質。我們相信，我們的股東擁有獨特的優勢，能夠從殷拓無與倫比的規模、同業領先的低成本庫存深度和一流的排放狀況組合中獲得回報。

I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.

我現在將把電話轉給傑里米。

Thanks, Toby, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by summarizing our fourth quarter results, which highlight our operational momentum as we closed out the year.

謝謝托比，大家早安。我將首先總結我們第四季度的業績，這突顯了我們在年底時的營運勢頭。

Sales volumes of 564 Bcfe was toward the high end of our guidance range, reflecting continued best-in-class execution from our drilling and completion teams, along with strong well performance. Our per unit adjusted operating revenues were $2.75 per Mcfe, and our total per unit operating costs were $1.27 per Mcfe, which were at the low end of our guidance range driven by lower-than-expected LOE and G&A expenses.

564 Bcfe 的銷售量接近我們指導範圍的高端，反映出我們的鑽井和完井團隊持續一流的執行力以及強勁的油井表現。我們的每單位調整後營業收入為每 Mcfe 2.75 美元，每單位總營運成本為每 Mcfe 1.27 美元，由於 LOE 和 G&A 費用低於預期，因此處於我們指導範圍的下限。

It's worth noting that we outperformed LOE expectations every quarter in 2023 with total absolute LOE coming in $40 million below our internal forecast, driven largely by more efficient water handling facilitated by the investments we've made in water infrastructure.

值得注意的是，我們在2023 年每個季度的表現都超出了LOE 預期，總絕對LOE 比我們的內部預測低4000 萬美元，這主要是由於我們在水基礎設施方面的投資促進了更高效的水處理。

Capital expenditures were $539 million, which were in the lower half of our guidance range, reflecting the operational efficiency gains Toby mentioned previously.

資本支出為 5.39 億美元，位於我們指引範圍的下半部分，反映了托比之前提到的營運效率提升。

Turning to the balance sheet. Last month, we completed several transactions that eliminated debt, reduced interest expense, simplified our balance sheet and established an important 10-year pricing reference point, which is the longest dated bond outstanding of our natural gas peers and underscores the market's confidence in our inventory duration.

轉向資產負債表。上個月，我們完成了幾筆交易，消除了債務，減少了利息支出，簡化了資產負債表，並建立了重要的10年定價參考點，這是我們天然氣同行中期限最長的未償還債券，強調了市場對我們庫存的信心期間。

First, we retired all outstanding convertible senior notes due in 2026, which eliminated more than $400 million of absolute debt. Recall, our fully diluted share count already included the shares associated with our convertible notes. We simultaneously liquidated the capped call that we had purchased in conjunction with the issuance of the convertible notes for cash proceeds of $93 million. Pro forma the convertible note retirement, our total debt outstanding is currently $5.5 billion, which equates to a 1.6x leverage when annualizing fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA.

首先，我們註銷了 2026 年到期的所有未償還可轉換優先票據，從而消除了超過 4 億美元的絕對債務。回想一下，我們完全稀釋的股票數量已經包括與我們的可轉換票據相關的股票。我們同時清算了與發行可轉換票據同時購買的上限認購權，以獲得 9,300 萬美元的現金收益。在預計可轉換票據退役後，我們的未償債務總額目前為 55 億美元，相當於第四季度調整後 EBITDA 年度化時的 1.6 倍槓桿。

Following the convertible note settlement, we executed a highly successful $750 million 10-year bond offering last month, the proceeds of which we used to pay off 60% of the term loan that we borrowed in conjunction with the closing of the Tug Hill and XcL Midstream acquisitions. We saw extremely strong demand from the credit market with a peak order book of almost $6 billion and the bonds pricing at a tight 1.65% spread to comparable U.S. treasury rates, which is similar to credit spreads of many of the highest quality large-cap companies in the broader energy sector.

在可轉換票據和解之後，我們上個月非常成功地發行了 7.5 億美元的 10 年期債券，我們用所得收益償還了在 Tug Hill 和 XcL 關閉時藉入的定期貸款的 60%中游收購。我們看到信貸市場的需求極為強勁，訂單高峰接近 60 億美元，債券定價與美國國債利率的利差僅為 1.65%，這與許多優質大型公司的信貸利差相似在更廣泛的能源領域。

In conjunction with the bond offering, we also extended the maturity of our remaining term loan from mid-2025 to mid-2026, providing ample flexibility for maturity management moving forward.

在發行債券的同時，我們也將剩餘定期貸款的期限從 2025 年中期延長至 2026 年中期，為未來的到期管理提供了充足的靈活性。

In terms of capital allocation, we will continue to prioritize debt paydown until we achieve our $3.5 billion gross debt target. Our capital allocation philosophy is underpinned by an unwavering focus on establishing a fortress balance sheet, countercyclical and opportunistic share repurchases and a steadily growing base dividend. This long-term focused value investing framework has received resounding support from our increasingly high-quality shareholder base, and we will continue to allocate capital in accordance with this first principles framework.

在資本配置方面，我們將繼續優先償還債務，直到實現 35 億美元的總債務目標。我們的資本配置理念的基礎是堅定不移地專注於建立堡壘資產負債表、反週期和機會主義的股票回購以及穩步增長的基礎股息。這個長期聚焦的價值投資框架得到了我們日益優質的股東基礎的大力支持，我們將繼續按照這個第一原則框架配置資本。

Looking ahead to 2024, we are setting an annual production guidance range of 2,200 to 2,300 Bcfe, which is underpinned by a fully loaded maintenance capital program of $1.95 million to $2.05 billion. Additionally, we are investing $200 million to $300 million into several strategic growth projects in the form of midstream and water infrastructure and infill land capture this year. These opportunistic investments are significantly value enhancing, and I want to take a moment to highlight the merits of each of these.

展望 2024 年，我們將年產量指引範圍設定為 2,200 至 2,300 Bcfe，並以 195 萬至 20.5 億美元的滿載維護資本計畫為基礎。此外，今年我們還將投資 2 億至 3 億美元用於中游和水基礎設施以及填充土地捕獲等形式的幾個戰略成長項目。這些機會主義投資可以顯著提高價值，我想花點時間強調其中每一項的優點。

The acquisition of XcL Midstream last year created a full-service midstream platform within EQT. And through this platform, we are already sourcing proprietary opportunities that generate strong risk-adjusted returns and robust free cash flow yields, even superior to those of our core Marcellus wells, while at the same time derisking our upstream operations.

去年收購 XcL Midstream 在 EQT 內部創建了一個全方位服務的中游平台。透過這個平台，我們已經在尋找專有機會，這些機會可以產生強勁的風險調整回報和強勁的自由現金流收益率，甚至優於我們的核心馬塞勒斯油井，同時降低了我們上游業務的風險。

As shown on Slide 10, we are investing in 3 Midstream growth projects this year, comprised of the Clarington Connector, the OakGate Pipeline and the Pacific Coast Compression project. The combined capital associated with these projects is approximately $115 million. And once fully operational, these projects should generate aggregate annual free cash flow of nearly $50 million in the form of superior price realizations.

如投影片 10 所示，我們今年將投資 3 個中游成長項目，包括 Clarington Connector、OakGate Pipeline 和 Pacific Coast Compression 項目。這些項目的總資本約為 1.15 億美元。一旦全面投入運營，這些項目將以優異的價格實現形式產生總計近 5000 萬美元的年度自由現金流。

This implies these investments will generate an aggregate free cash flow yield of nearly 40%, which is extremely attractive given the absence of price risk and the annuity-like cash flow profile over a 20-year asset life. We forecast a total return on investment of roughly 8x and the aggregate net present value of these projects is estimated at $250 million, implying value creation for shareholders equivalent to roughly $0.60 per share.

這意味著這些投資將產生近 40% 的總自由現金流收益率，考慮到不存在價格風險以及 20 年資產壽命內類似於年金的現金流狀況，這極具吸引力。我們預計總投資回報率約為 8 倍，這些項目的總淨現值估計為 2.5 億美元，這意味著為股東創造的價值相當於每股約 0.60 美元。

Despite only having this Midstream business for just 6 months, these initial projects provide a glimpse into the long-term opportunity we see for this new business line. Reinvestment opportunities of this quality only come about because of the symbiotic relationship between our midstream and upstream teams working in alignment together. We believe this approach to growing shareholder value is differentiated among peers, especially in a $2 gas world, and intend to cultivate this platform so that it becomes an even more impactful driver of shareholder value creation over time.

儘管這項中游業務只開展了短短 6 個月，但這些初始項目讓我們看到了這條新業務線的長期機會。這種品質的再投資機會只有透過我們的中游和上游團隊之間的合作共生關係才能實現。我們相信，這種增加股東價值的方法在同行中是有區別的，尤其是在2 美元的天然氣世界中，我們打算培育這個平台，使其隨著時間的推移成為股東價值創造的更有影響力的驅動力。

Within our reserve development CapEx, we've also allocated $80 million to expand our existing water infrastructure assets in West Virginia. As shown on Slide 12 of our investor deck, we expect 2024 investments into our water infrastructure to drive annual savings of $20 million, implying a 25% free cash flow yield on our invested capital.

在我們的儲備開發資本支出中，我們還撥款 8000 萬美元來擴大我們在西維吉尼亞州的現有水基礎設施資產。正如投資者投影片 12 所示，我們預計 2024 年對水利基礎設施的投資將每年節省 2,000 萬美元，這意味著我們投資資本的自由現金流收益率將達到 25%。

Our EQT-owned water system has materially increased the amount of water produced that we can recycle, which is having a tangible impact on our cost structure as demonstrated by our LOE coming in below forecast every quarter last year, translating to $40 million more free cash flow than originally forecasted.

我們殷拓擁有的水系統大大增加了我們可以回收的水量，這對我們的成本結構產生了切實的影響，去年每個季度我們的LOE 都低於預測，這意味著4000 萬美元的自由現金增加了流量比最初預測的要多。

Turning to land. We have roughly $100 million allocated to opportunistic infill leasehold growth in mineral acquisitions this year. As shown on Slide 13 of our investor presentation, opportunistic leasehold additions organically replenished 65% of the acreage that we developed over just the past year, which is a pace of replenishment that can materially expand our years of inventory when aggregated over time. We believe this ability to organically backfill developed inventory is a unique feature among U.S. shale plays that largely exists only within Southwest Appalachia due to the land configuration and historic development activity.

轉向陸地。今年，我們分配了約 1 億美元用於礦產收購中的機會性填充租賃成長。正如我們投資者簡報第13 張投影片所示，機會性租賃權益的增加有機地補充了我們在過去一年開發的面積的65%，隨著時間的推移，這一補充速度可以實質地擴大我們多年的庫存。我們認為，這種有機回填已開發庫存的能力是美國頁岩油區的一個獨特特徵，由於土地配置和歷史開發活動，這種能力主要只存在於西南阿巴拉契亞地區。

We are seeing notable opportunities to add to our acreage position at extremely attractive prices this year given the low commodity price environment, which we were able to capture due to our strong financial position. To put into context, the value creation potential of deploying leasehold capital, we highlight a very tangible example on Slide 13 of our investor presentation.

鑑於大宗商品價格較低的環境，我們今年看到了以極具吸引力的價格增加種植面積的顯著機會，而我們憑藉強大的財務狀況能夠抓住這一機會。為了說明部署租賃資本的價值創造潛力，我們在投資者簡報的幻燈片 13 中重點介紹了一個非常具體的例子。

In 2022, we infilled leased acreage and increased our working interest by 18% in our Polecat North development located in Greene County, which we brought online last year. The incremental interest we added in this project through organic leasing is projected to generate a 90%-plus free cash flow yield in year 1 alone and nearly 55% of annual free cash flow yield over the first 5 years and a return on invested capital of roughly 7x the strip pricing.

2022 年，我們在位於格林縣的 Polecat North 開發案中填補了租賃面積，並將工作權益增加了 18%，該專案於去年上線。我們透過有機租賃在該專案中增加的增量利息預計僅在第一年就將產生90% 以上的自由現金流收益率，並在前5 年中產生近55% 的年度自由現金流收益率，投資資本回報率約為帶鋼價格的 7 倍。

This example highlights why we see these tactical land expenditures as an extremely attractive reinvestment of capital while simultaneously extending inventory duration, which can, in turn, help facilitate additional strategic initiatives such as signing long-term supply agreements.

這個例子凸顯了為什麼我們將這些戰術性土地支出視為極具吸引力的資本再投資，同時延長庫存期限，這反過來又可以幫助促進其他戰略舉措，例如簽署長期供應協議。

A key point I want to leave you with on these growth projects is whether it's land capital, infrastructure investments, our acquisition strategy, long-term agreements with utilities or our base upstream business, we are incredibly intentional about aligning these decisions to ensure they symbiotically work together to enhance each other and collectively result in optimal risk-adjusted compounding of shareholder capital in the decades ahead.

關於這些成長項目，我想留給大家的一個關鍵點是，無論是土地資本、基礎設施投資、我們的收購策略、與公用事業公司的長期協議還是我們的基礎上游業務，我們都非常有意地調整這些決策，以確保它們共生共同努力，相互促進，共同實現未來幾十年股東資本的最佳風險調整複利。

In essence, this is the definition of terminal value. And through building a successful track record of these decisions, we expect this to be reflected in our stock price.

本質上，這就是終值的定義。透過建立這些決策的成功記錄，我們預計這將反映在我們的股價中。

Lastly, I want to quickly touch on our cost structure guidance given the moving pieces with the imminent startup of MVP. We are guiding full year transmission expense to $0.42 to $0.44 per Mcfe, which is up approximately $0.10 year-over-year driven by the costs associated with MVP. This is partly offset by an accompanying contractual step-down in our gathering rates, which we forecast to be in the $0.52 to $0.54 range for 2024, down from roughly $0.65 in 2023.

最後，考慮到 MVP 即將啟動，我想快速談談我們的成本結構指導。我們預計全年傳輸費用為每 Mcfe 0.42 至 0.44 美元，由於 MVP 相關成本的推動，年增約 0.10 美元。這在一定程度上被我們的收集費率隨之而來的合約下降所抵消，我們預計 2024 年收集費率將在 0.52 美元至 0.54 美元的範圍內，低於 2023 年的約 0.65 美元。

Within our 2024 corporate differential guidance of $0.50 to $0.70, we conservatively assume EQT flows only a portion of our MVP capacity due to downstream limitations at Station 165. In the winter months, we should be able to flow at higher rates on MVP and realize a greater premium on downstream pricing. Thus, the cash flow uplift associated with MVP will be seasonal in nature until downstream expansion projects come online.

在我們2024 年0.50 美元至0.70 美元的企業差異化指導範圍內，我們保守地假設，由於165 號站的下游限制，EQT 僅流動我們MVP 產能的一部分。在冬季，我們應該能夠以更高的速率流動MVP，並實現下游定價溢價更大。因此，在下游擴張項目上線之前，與 MVP 相關的現金流增加本質上將是季節性的。

It's also worth highlighting that we have roughly 500 MMcf per day of our Station 165 pricing exposure hedged through financial instruments and firm physical sales through 2025, which provides downside protection should there be any further price pressure downstream of MVP over the next few years.

還值得強調的是，到2025 年，我們每天大約有500 MMcf 的Station 165 定價風險透過金融工具和堅定的實物銷售進行對沖，如果未來幾年MVP 下游出現任何進一步的價格壓力，這將提供下行保護。

With nearly 2.5 Bcf per day of upcoming project expansions at Station 165 and significant demand pull from the Southeast region, our ability to flow volumes on MVP and associated realized pricing should progressively improve over the coming years, culminating in the commencement of our firm sales contracts in 2027 that are projected to improve our corporate-wide differential by $0.15 to $0.20, driving a $300 million-plus uplift in annual free cash flow generation.

由於165 站即將進行的項目擴建每天接近2.5 Bcf，並且來自東南地區的巨大需求拉動，我們在MVP 上流通量和相關實現定價的能力將在未來幾年內逐步提高，最終導致我們的固定銷售合約的開始到 2027 年，整個公司的差異預計將改善 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元，從而推動年度自由現金流量增加 3 億美元以上。

Turning to Slide 11 of our investor presentation. We announced the proposed acquisition of an additional 34% ownership in the EQT operated Seely and Warrensville gathering system in Northeast Pennsylvania for $205 million in cash, and we currently expect the transaction to close in late Q1 or early Q2.

轉向我們的投資者簡報的幻燈片 11。我們宣布擬以 2.05 億美元現金收購 EQT 在賓州東北部營運的 Seely 和 Warrensville 收集系統的額外 34% 所有權，目前我們預計該交易將在第一季末或第二季初完成。

EQT currently owns 50% of this gathering system. So our pro forma ownership will increase to 84% based on terms agreed to in the purchase agreement, subject to the potential exercise of certain preferential purchase rights.

EQT 目前擁有該收集系統 50% 的股份。因此，根據購買協議中商定的條款，我們的備考所有權將增加至 84%，但須視某些優先購買權的潛在行使情況而定。

Recall, this gathering system was part of the Alta acquisition we completed in 2021, which has been a significant source of value creation for EQT. The purchase price implies we are acquiring these assets for a double-digit free cash flow yield, underscoring how this deal allows us to reinvest capital into durable, long-lived infrastructure at an attractive rate of return with near zero execution risk, given we operate both the system and the upstream development underpinning the assets.

回想一下，這個收集系統是我們在 2021 年完成的 Alta 收購的一部分，Alta 一直是 EQT 價值創造的重要來源。購買價格意味著我們將以兩位數的自由現金流收益率收購這些資產，這突顯了這筆交易如何使我們能夠以有吸引力的回報率將資本再投資於耐用、長期的基礎設施，而且考慮到我們的運營，執行風險接近零支撐資產的系統和上游開發。

Consistent with our broader strategy to reinvest capital into assets that improve our corporate cost structure, our greater ownership in the system will immediately lower our overall free cash flow breakeven price by more than $0.01 per Mcfe upon close. We are currently looking at ways we can shift even more development activity onto this system over the coming years, which could drive additional upside to the transaction.

與我們將資本再投資到改善公司成本結構的資產的更廣泛策略相一致，我們對該系統的更大所有權將立即將我們的整體自由現金流盈虧平衡價格降低超過每 Mcfe 0.01 美元。我們目前正在尋找在未來幾年將更多開發活動轉移到該系統上的方法，這可能會為交易帶來額外的好處。

Moving to hedging. We tactically added to the front end of our 2024 hedge position earlier this year, leaning into the price spike that occurred ahead of the winter storm in January. We have now greater than 50% of our first quarter 2024 production volumes hedged with a weighted average floor price of $3.87 per MMBtu, which has derisked a significant portion of our free cash flow outlook for the year.

轉向對沖。今年早些時候，我們策略性地增加了 2024 年對沖頭寸的前端，以應對 1 月冬季風暴之前發生的價格飆升。目前，我們 2024 年第一季超過 50% 的產量以每 MMBtu 3.87 美元的加權平均底價進行對沖，這降低了我們今年自由現金流前景的很大一部分風險。

We have nearly 50% of our second quarter production hedged with a weighted average floor of $3.39 per MMBtu. And roughly 40% of our Q3 production covered at a weighted average floor price of $3.42 per MMBtu. Additionally, we've recently added some 2024 winter hedges, taking our fourth quarter hedge coverage up to more than 20% with a weighted average floor price of $3.47 per MMBtu.

我們第二季近 50% 的產量以每 MMBtu 3.39 美元的加權平均下限進行對沖。我們第三季產量的約 40% 的加權平均底價為每 MMBtu 3.42 美元。此外，我們最近增加了一些 2024 年冬季對沖，使我們第四季度的對沖覆蓋率達到 20% 以上，加權平均底價為每 MMBtu 3.47 美元。

Turning to Appalachian. Basis differentials were relatively wide during the fourth quarter, driven by an elevated Eastern storage level and rising production associated with multiple operators completing wells that were deferred from earlier in the year.

轉向阿巴拉契亞山脈。第四季度基差相對較大，原因是東部存儲水平升高以及多個運營商完成今年早些時候推遲的油井相關的產量增加。

Our strong basis hedge position again paid dividends this quarter, boosting our corporate-wide realized natural gas price by $0.08 per MMBtu. As it relates to the increase in Appalachian supply, after peaking at just under 37 Bcf per day in December, production in the basin has fallen by roughly 1.5 Bcf per day, and we anticipate further declines in the Appalachian supply through the second quarter.

我們強大的基差對沖頭寸在本季度再次帶來紅利，使我們全公司的天然氣實現價格每 MMBtu 上漲 0.08 美元。由於這與阿巴拉契亞供應量的增加有關，在12 月達到每天略低於37 Bcf 的峰值後，該盆地的產量每天下降了約1.5 Bcf，我們預計第二季度阿巴拉契亞供應量將進一步下降。

On the local demand side, it's noteworthy that PJM recently doubled its 15-year annualized load growth forecast from 0.8% to 1.6%. This equates to nearly 7 gigawatts of additional power demand by 2027, in more than 10 gigawatts by 2030, which, if satisfied by natural gas, would translate to nearly 2 Bcf per day of additional local demand by the end of the decade. This trend of increasing local demand juxtaposed against a relatively flat basin supply and the commencement of MVP should provide a structural tailwind for local pricing over the coming years, which we do not believe is currently priced into the basis futures market.

在當地需求方面，值得注意的是，PJM 最近將其 15 年年化負載成長預測從 0.8% 提高了一倍至 1.6%。這相當於到 2027 年將增加近 7 吉瓦的電力需求，到 2030 年將增加超過 10 吉瓦，如果透過天然氣滿足，到本十年末將轉化為每天近 2 Bcf 的額外當地需求。當地需求增加的趨勢與相對平坦的流域供應以及 MVP 的啟動相結合，將為未來幾年的當地定價提供結構性推動力，但我們認為目前基差期貨市場尚未定價。

As it relates to Lower 48 supply, it's worth highlighting that a prominent data vendor revised its year-to-date supply estimates downward by 1 to 2 Bcf per day this week. We had suspected certain data sources were overstating production, and this downward revision validated the market is not as oversupplied as many previously thought. Assuming production simply stays flat at the current revised level and weather is normal through the injection season, end of summer gas storage will be roughly in line with the 5-year average level.

由於與 Lower 48 供應相關，值得強調的是，一家知名數據供應商本週將其年初至今的供應預估下調了 1 至 2 Bcf。我們曾懷疑某些數據來源誇大了產量，而這項向下修正證實了市場並不像許多人之前認為的那樣供應過剩。假設產量基本上保持在目前修正後的水平，並且注入季節天氣正常，夏季末儲氣量將大致與五年平均值一致。

I'll close by sharing a few philosophical thoughts on what we believe it takes to not only survive but to thrive as a natural gas producer and a macro backdrop that we expect will be characterized by unpredictable volatility for the foreseeable future. The real long-term winners in this business will not be the biggest companies that gain scale simply for the sake of scale, but will instead be the companies that have a corporate cost structure that is currently and in the future at the low end of the cost curve.

最後，我將分享一些關於我們認為作為天然氣生產商不僅能夠生存而且能夠繁榮發展的哲學思想，以及我們預計在可預見的未來將以不可預測的波動為特徵的宏觀背景。這個產業真正的長期贏家不會是那些僅僅為了規模而擴大規模的最大公司，而是那些目前和未來的企業成本結構處於低端的公司。成本曲線。

A low cost structure is the only competitive advantage one can have in a commodity-driven business, which is why it is our North Star and drives nearly all of our strategic decision-making.

低成本結構是商品驅動型業務中唯一的競爭優勢，這就是為什麼它是我們的北極星，並推動我們幾乎所有的策略決策。

While we are believers that future natural gas prices will be higher on average, we do not believe that prices will be stable at the $4 to $5 level, like the prevailing consensus view. And building a business around this assumption of average prices is likely to end poorly. Until we return to a world where we can build necessary domestic infrastructure, we believe we are more likely to see prices either around the $2 level they are today to force high-cost producers to curtail production and activity were materially higher to curtail demand, as pricing becomes the only variable left to balance natural gas inventories.

雖然我們相信未來天然氣平均價格將會更高，但我們並不認為價格會像普遍的共識那樣穩定在 4 至 5 美元的水平。圍繞這種平均價格假設開展業務很可能結局不佳。在我們回到一個能夠建造必要的國內基礎設施的世界之前，我們相信我們更有可能看到價格在今天的 2 美元左右，迫使高成本生產商削減產量，而活動大幅上漲以抑制需求，因為定價成為平衡天然氣庫存的唯一變數。

Said another way, we believe an increasingly fat-tailed distribution of outcomes. That is a critical distinction, and we're already seeing the manifestation of this dynamic with prompt month pricing at this moment. However, EQT is at the low end of the cost curve and will be moving even further down the cost curve over the next 5 years due to our contractual gathering rate reductions in long-term MVP firm sales agreements.

換句話說，我們相信結果的分佈越來越肥尾。這是一個關鍵的區別，我們目前已經看到了這種動態的體現，即即時的月份定價。然而，EQT 處於成本曲線的低端，由於我們在長期 MVP 公司銷售協議中的合約收集率降低，未來 5 年成本曲線將進一步下降。

This outcome is by design as our philosophy toward creating value in a cyclical, volatile commodity business has underpinned every one of our strategic decisions over the past several years. The culmination of these decisions has created a unique opportunity for investors, deploy capital into the preeminent natural gas platform that is positioned to generate peer-leading shareholder value through all parts of the commodity cycle over the long term.

這結果是有意為之的，因為我們在週期性、波動性大宗商品業務中創造價值的概念支撐著我們過去幾年的每一項策略決策。這些決策的最終結果為投資者創造了一個獨特的機會，將資本部署到卓越的天然氣平台上，該平台的定位是在大宗商品週期的各個部分長期創造同行領先的股東價值。

And with that, we'll open the call to questions.

接下來，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram 線路。

I wanted to see on Slide 9, you highlight your views on maintenance CapEx and strategic growth CapEx and you compared it from 2024 relative to a 2025 to '28 outlook. Jeremy, I was wondering if you can maybe help us think about the trajectory of that spend? How does 2025 look versus '28?

我想在投影片 9 上看到，您強調了您對維護資本支出和策略性成長資本支出的看法，並將 2024 年的情況與 2025 年至 28 年的展望進行了比較。傑里米，我想知道你是否可以幫助我們思考這筆支出的軌跡？ 2025 年與 28 年相比如何？

And maybe just some thoughts on midstream CapEx under this outlook because that was a clear focus of today some of the strategic midstream investments that EQT is making.

也許只是在這種前景下對中游資本支出的一些想法，因為這是殷拓今天正在進行的一些策略性中游投資的明確焦點。

Yes, absolutely. So we've assumed in our go-forward forecast and our 5-year outlook, about $150 million per year, which is kind of a loose bucket we've assigned. I wouldn't say it's entirely defined through that forecast, but that's our broad assumption, which is what's reflected on that slide.

是的，一點沒錯。因此，我們在未來預測和 5 年展望中假設每年約 1.5 億美元，這是我們分配的一個鬆散的桶子。我不會說它完全是透過該預測定義的，但這是我們的廣泛假設，也是該投影片所反映的內容。

There's a little bit of carryover on this Clarington Connector project into 2025, but I would say that expectation for spending is within that bucket. I mean look, I think these sort of spending projects, it's not something that necessarily will be recurring. But look, if we see great opportunities that make our business better, sometimes it costs a little bit of money to invest and actually capture that price and that value. That's what you're seeing us do in 2024. There'll be years, we probably don't spend any of that capital and other years where we spend a little bit more.

這個 Clarington 連接器專案有一點可以延續到 2025 年，但我想說的是，支出預期在這個範圍內。我的意思是，我認為這類支出項目不一定會重複出現。但是，如果我們看到可以讓我們的業務變得更好的巨大機會，有時需要花費一點錢來投資並實際捕獲該價格和價值。這就是我們在 2024 年所做的事情。未來幾年，我們可能不會花費任何資金，而其他年份我們會花費更多。

That's absolute helpful. Second question. Give us some thoughts on the glide path on the $2 billion deleveraging target. There have been some recent press reports on EQT, potentially looking at selling your non-op piece in Northeast PA. I don't know if this is a great environment to be selling assets. I was wondering if you could comment on maybe some inorganic opportunities to delever, call it, in a big bang type of approach.

這絕對有幫助。第二個問題。請給我們一些關於 20 億美元去槓桿目標的下滑路徑的想法。最近有一些關於 EQT 的媒體報導，可能會考慮出售您在賓夕法尼亞州東北部的非手術部分。我不知道這是否是出售資產的好環境。我想知道您是否可以評論一下也許有一些無機的去槓桿化機會，稱之為大爆炸式的方法。

Yes. Look, obviously, with the volatile commodity price environment, even a month ago, the outlook when the strip was at $3 is different than where the strip is today, closer to $40. So it's, in many ways, organically, it will depend on just where the strip settles.

是的。顯然，在大宗商品價格環境波動的情況下，即使在一個月前，帶鋼價格為 3 美元時的前景也與今天的帶鋼價格不同，接近 40 美元。因此，在很多方面，有機地取決於地帶的安置位置。

We continue to be really bullish the next 6 to 9 months might be a little bit bumpy. But I think we continue to have the view, and I think you're starting to see it from some of the earnings guidance already coming out this quarter. Really a curtailment in activity today is just going to really amplify the upside, I think, as we get into next year. So we remain well positioned to capture that. I think as much as really anybody.

我們仍然非常看好未來 6 到 9 個月可能會有點坎坷。但我認為我們仍然持有這種觀點，並且我認為您已經開始從本季度已經發布的一些盈利指引中看到這一點。我認為，當我們進入明年時，今天活動的減少只會真正放大上行空間。因此，我們仍然處於有利位置來捕捉這一點。我和任何人一樣想。

In terms of inorganic ways to delever, I mean, look, we -- for the right price, we're a seller of anything, right? I mean our focus and our North Star is really just creating shareholder value if there's an opportunity to do that. Certainly, I think when we started thinking about rationalizing the portfolio in Q4, we were looking at a $350 strip.

就無機去槓桿化方式而言，我的意思是，看，我們——以合適的價格，我們是任何東西的賣家，對嗎？我的意思是，如果有機會的話，我們的重點和我們的北極星實際上只是創造股東價值。當然，我認為當我們開始考慮第四季度的投資組合合理化時，我們考慮的是 350 美元的剝離。

So the process for executing on that might be maybe a little bit delayed. But I would say there's a renewed interest really across the market in nonoperated assets, really from international players who have interest in having exposure to U.S. gas, and I think we've seen a little bit of this recently, but don't want to actually have U.S. operations.

因此執行過程可能會有點延遲。但我想說的是，整個市場對非營運資產確實重新產生了興趣，真正來自對美國天然氣感興趣的國際參與者，我認為我們最近已經看到了一些這種情況，但不想實際上在美國有業務。

So we really started exploring that because of inbounds we got. And I think a lot of those buyers are a little less price sensitive than some of the buyers domestically. So look, we -- anything we do, it certainly is not defensive, it would be opportunistic. And I'd say we've seen some really good interest on the asset. I think it values that certainly do not reflect strip pricing.

所以我們真的開始探索這個問題，因為我們收到了界外球。我認為這些買家中的許多人對價格的敏感度比國內的一些買家要低一些。所以看，我們所做的任何事情，肯定不是防禦性的，而是機會主義的。我想說，我們已經看到了對該資產的一些非常濃厚的興趣。我認為它的價值肯定不反映帶鋼定價。

So we'll remain opportunistic, but it's something that could happen near term. It could happen a year from now. But it's just part of our continued effort to not necessarily just chase scale, but really chase quality and what creates the most value.

因此，我們將保持機會主義，但這可能是近期發生的事情。這可能會在一年後發生。但這只是我們持續努力的一部分，我們不僅追求規模，而且真正追求品質和創造最大價值的東西。

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Sam Margolin。

Thanks for the detail on the -- on your activity plans for '24. As always, that's a recurring slide. My question is the ranges of the number of wells that you drill and complete and turn to sales are the same range, but they're not necessarily aligned on either end. And so when you think about how you execute within those ranges, do they move together on a one-to-one basis? Or is there a scenario where you drill 120 wells, you complete 120 wells and you turn 120 wells in line. And you have no change in sort of like your DUC backlog or your deferred TILs?

感謝您詳細介紹 24 年的活動計畫。像往常一樣，這是一張反覆出現的幻燈片。我的問題是，您鑽探、完井並轉向銷售的油井數量範圍是相同的，但兩端不一定一致。因此，當您考慮如何在這些範圍內執行時，它們是否會在一對一的基礎上一起移動？或者是否有這樣一種情況：您鑽了 120 口井，完成了 120 口井，然後在線轉動了 120 口井。您的 DUC 積壓工作或延期的 TIL 等方面沒有任何變化嗎？

Yes. So to provide some more color on the numbers we put out there, I mean there is a mix of wells that are -- not all the numbers are the same for what we spud to what we horizontally drill, complete and what we ultimately turn in line. When we put those numbers out -- when we have to pick a number, it's typically the TIL. And so there will be a little bit of a range there to account for some flexibility. If we see a more compelling opportunity in '25, we could pause on some of the TIL activity.

是的。因此，為了給我們公佈的數字提供更多的色彩，我的意思是，對於我們開鑽、水平鑽探、完井以及最終交付的井來說，並非所有數字都相同。線。當我們把這些數字拿出來時——當我們必須選擇一個數字時，通常是 TIL。因此，會有一點範圍來考慮一些彈性。如果我們在 25 年看到更引人注目的機會，我們可以暫停一些 TIL 活動。

Okay. That makes sense. And then, I mean, this is sort of a follow-up to those ranges. They're designed, I guess, to correspond to a number of different market outcomes. I mean what's the market condition where you might materially change those ranges and bring down activity levels below where you've been running? Obviously, as you can imagine, that's an inbound question I think all of us get from investors.

好的。這就說得通了。然後，我的意思是，這是這些範圍的後續行動。我猜想，它們的設計是為了對應許多不同的市場結果。我的意思是，在什麼市場條件下，您可能會大幅改變這些範圍並將活動水平降低到您一直運行的水平以下？顯然，正如你想像的那樣，我認為這是我們所有人都從投資者那裡得到的一個入站問題。

Yes, Sam. It's something that I think we, like every one of our peers is probably thinking about every day right now. I mean you look at the prompt price in the $160s. The market is asking for not only production curtailments, but also activity reductions.

是的，山姆。我認為我們和我們的每一位同齡人一樣，現在可能每天都在思考這個問題。我的意思是你看看提示價格在 160 美元左右。市場不僅要求減產，還要求減少活動。

And look, if you look at our -- even our production guidance that we gave in that bond prospectus in mid-January, you'll notice we've reduced that range by about 50 Bcf. I would characterize that as a response to the price environment we're in and wanting to make sure there's flexibility. So EQT can respond and make sure that if price gives a signal for lower activity and in lower production, we stand ready to respond.

看，如果你看一下我們的——甚至是我們在一月中旬債券招股說明書中給出的生產指導，你會注意到我們已經將該範圍縮小了約 50 Bcf。我認為這是對我們所處的價格環境的回應，並希望確保靈活性。因此，殷拓可以做出反應，並確保如果價格發出活動減少和產量減少的信號，我們隨時準備好做出反應。

Your next question comes from the line of John Abbott with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·阿博特。

Our first question is really on your 5-year cumulative free cash flow outlook. You mentioned $9 billion. And that's lower than you gave in the third quarter. Obviously, that's part of lower commodity prices. But when you think about those 2 outlooks, has there anything really changed on the cost side in terms of assumptions? And anything particularly moved when you look at those 2 projections?

我們的第一個問題實際上是關於您的 5 年累積自由現金流前景。你提到了90億美元。這比你在第三季給出的要低。顯然，這是大宗商品價格下跌的一部分。但是，當您考慮這兩種前景時，成本方面的假設是否真的改變了？當您看到這兩個投影時，有什麼特別讓您感動的事情嗎？

No, John, there have been no changes. I don't think of any material consequence aside from pricing.

不，約翰，沒有任何變化。除了定價之外，我不認為有任何實質後果。

All right. And then the other question here is really all related to your long-term gas differential. Where do you think your differential sort of -- if you sort of look at strip pricing, where do you think it is from 2027? And then Jeremy, you sort of went out there and you suggested that in-basin demand should improve over time, and that's not reflected in current differentials. Where do you think that could potentially move?

好的。這裡的另一個問題實際上都與您的長期天然氣差異有關。你認為你的差異在哪裡——如果你看看帶鋼定價，你認為 2027 年以來的差異在哪裡？然後傑里米（Jeremy），您走出去並建議盆地內的需求應該隨著時間的推移而改善，而這並沒有反映在當前的差異中。您認為這可能會走向何方？

Yes. So if you look at just the EQT forecast, the midpoint of our range is that $0.60 level for differentials for this next year. If you look at where we end up in 2028 with the expansion projects in line and just at current strip pricing, our realized differential will be about $0.50. So -- our differential on average drops about $0.10 from where we sit today to really the back end of that 5-year guidance range.

是的。因此，如果您只查看 EQT 預測，我們範圍的中點是明年的差異 0.60 美元。如果你看看我們在 2028 年的最終結果，擴建項目符合預期，並且僅按照當前的帶鋼定價，我們的實現差異將約為 0.50 美元。因此，我們的平均差異從今天的位置下降了約 0.10 美元，真正達到了 5 年指導範圍的後端。

I mean, look, when you think about the in-basin demand dynamics, I think what we've highlighted could add potentially up to 2 Bs a day of demand in-basin, some of that might be taken by renewables, so call it 1 to 2 Bs net to gas.

我的意思是，當你考慮流域內的需求動態時，我認為我們所強調的可能會增加每天 2 B 的流域內需求，其中一些可能會被可再生能源佔據，所以稱之為1 至2 Bs淨氣體。

And then the MVP downstream expansion projects come online, too. I mean that's going to fully utilize MVP. And I actually think from conversations we're having, there's probably likelihood MVP gets expanded by another half B a day. At EQT, we stand ready to really be a supplier of that to support that project. I think there's ample demand in that southeast market with data center build-outs really underpinned by the AI revolution right now and population growth in that area that's really pulling on gas for just absolute power demand increases in addition to core retirement.

然後 MVP 下游擴展項目也上線了。我的意思是這將充分利用 MVP。事實上，我認為從我們正在進行的對話來看，MVP 很可能每天會再增加半個 B。在殷拓，我們隨時準備好成為真正的供應商來支援這個專案。我認為東南市場的需求充足，資料中心的擴建確實受到人工智慧革命的支撐，而該地區的人口成長確實推動了天然氣的成長，除了核心退休之外，絕對電力需求的增加。

So it's power, I think, in our view, as you look towards the end of this decade is increasingly becoming, I think, as bullish of a thematic tailwind is really LNG, and we'll probably really take the torch from LNG in the coming years.

因此，我認為，在我們看來，當你展望本十年末時，我認為，隨著主題順風的看漲確實是液化天然氣，我們可能會真正從液化天然氣手中接過火炬。未來幾年。

And so I think that dynamic really -- when you couple all those dynamics and themes together and I think you really see a really healthy backdrop for Appalachia. And I think certainly, as you see some operators start to run thin on inventory in the basin. I think it provides opportunity for companies like EQT to not only capture better in-basin pricing but actually really grow our own production into that and take a bigger share of the pie.

所以我認為這種動態確實 - 當你將所有這些動態和主題結合在一起時，我認為你真的看到了阿巴拉契亞的一個非常健康的背景。我認為當然，正如你所看到的，一些運營商開始減少該盆地的庫存。我認為這為殷拓這樣的公司提供了機會，不僅可以獲得更好的盆地內定價，而且實際上可以真正發展我們自己的生產並獲得更大的份額。

So we -- that's really our expectation over the next couple of years. We stand ready to respond to it, but we see it really more as a tailwind than a headwind.

所以我們——這確實是我們對未來幾年的期望。我們隨時準備好對此做出回應，但我們認為它實際上更多的是順風而不是逆風。

Your next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum with TD Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 TD Cowen 的對話。

I was hoping just to dig in a little bit more on just Arun's question. I think you will highlight the lower implied maintenance CapEx going into '25 and beyond. I guess if we think about that delta of -- I guess, $100 million, $200 million next year, is most of that just coming from continued synergies on the Tug Hill assets? Is it lower base decline? Is it implied cost savings? Is it less infrastructure spend? Or is it sort of all of the above? Or what's driving the bulk of that?

我希望能進一步探討阿倫的問題。我認為您會強調 25 年及以後的隱含維護資本支出較低。我想，如果我們考慮一下增量——我想，明年 1 億美元、2 億美元，其中大部分是否只是來自 Tug Hill 資產的持續協同效應？基數下降是否較低？這是否意味著節省成本？基礎建設支出是否減少？還是以上所有的情況？或者是什麼推動了這其中的大部分？

Yes, I would say it would be all of the above. Teams are looking across all angles of the business, looking for ways to shave pennies off the program.

是的，我想說的是以上所有。團隊正在從各個角度審視業務，尋找節省該計劃成本的方法。

And then maybe just to talk a little bit about just the LOE side or production cost side. I think you've highlighted in the deck, especially on Slide 12, the benefits of the water system. The guidance, obviously, this year, I guess, now inclusive of the Tug Hill deal and some other moving parts, your LOE is moving higher. Are you including the expected benefits from the water system investments in your '24 guidance around LOE? Or is that something that would be additional upside?

然後也許只是談談 LOE 方面或生產成本方面。我認為您在簡報中（尤其是在幻燈片 12 上）強調了供水系統的好處。顯然，今年的指導，我猜，現在包括了 Tug Hill 交易和其他一些移動部分，你的 LOE 正在走高。您是否將供水系統投資的預期效益納入您的 24 年 LOE 指南中？或者這會帶來額外的好處嗎？

You're talking about the savings of $40 million that we referred to in the prepared remarks or what are you referring to?

您指的是我們在準備好的評論中提到的 4000 萬美元的節省，或者您指的是什麼呢？

Yes, the $40 million, and I guess like the completion of the systems in '24?

是的，4000 萬美元，我想就像 24 年完成系統一樣？

Yes. So those investments, I mean, you don't get an instant response to the same year. I mean the time it takes to build those systems, you usually see that savings show up in the following year and the years after that. So like the water system investments, the additional $80 million we're spending this year in interconnecting really the Chevron Water Systems, what we've built out the Tug Hill systems. I mean that's really going to pay dividends for us, not only in completion costs over the coming years just through lower water cost and water recycling, but also through LOE. I expect more of that to show up in 2025 and beyond where you start seeing that move the needle.

是的。因此，我的意思是，這些投資不會在同一年立即得到回應。我的意思是建立這些系統所需的時間，您通常會在下一年和之後的幾年中看到節省的時間。因此，與供水系統投資一樣，我們今年額外花了 8,000 萬美元用於互連雪佛龍供水系統，也就是我們在 Tug Hill 系統上建造的系統。我的意思是，這確實會為我們帶來紅利，不僅透過降低水成本和水循環利用來降低未來幾年的竣工成本，而且還透過 LOE。我預計 2025 年及以後將會出現更多這樣的情況，屆時您將開始看到這種變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Pickering Energy Partners 的 Kevin MacCurdy。

I had a couple of questions on the liquids production and pricing. The first question is, it looked like ethane production was lower than guidance for 4Q, while pricing for the other NGLs was higher than what we expected. Can you give some more detail on those 2 items and maybe remind us how your heavier NGLs are priced?

我有幾個關於液體生產和定價的問題。第一個問題是，乙烷產量似乎低於第四季度的指導，而其他液化天然氣的定價高於我們的預期。您能否提供有關這 2 件物品的更多詳細信息，並提醒我們您的較重 NGL 的定價如何？

Yes. Look, I would say on the ethane side, it really just comes down to what's going on with the Shell cracker both in terms of Q4 actuals and also the outlook for 2024. So that's really going to be the main driver of that. I think in the guidance we gave -- assumed that -- our underlying assumption there is influenced by our expectation that, that cracker plant is not fully online really for another year. But that's something that I think we and our peers around us in Southwest Appalachia are having a haircut a little bit just due to the continued startup delays on that facility.

是的。看，我想說的是，在乙烷方面，這實際上取決於殼牌裂解裝置在第四季度的實際情況和 2024 年的前景方面的情況。所以這確實將成為主要驅動力。我認為在我們給出的指導中——假設——我們的基本假設受到我們預期的影響，即餅乾廠在接下來的一年裡不會真正完全上線。但我認為，由於該設施的啟動持續延遲，我們和西南阿巴拉契亞地區的同行正在對這一點進行一些削減。

And how are your NGLs price?

你們的 NGL 價格如何？

Really just based on index in basin, I wouldn't say there was anything that's really changing as it relates to those dynamics.

實際上只是基於盆地中的指數，我不會說與這些動態相關的任何東西都在真正改變。

Great. And looking at the forward guidance, it looks like liquids, excluding ethane, declines from 4Q volumes and then again from the 1Q volumes. What's driving the decrease for the heavier liquids?

偉大的。從前瞻性指引來看，液體（不包括乙烷）的銷售量比第四季的銷售量有所下降，然後又比第一季的銷售量下降。是什麼推動了較重液體的減少？

Yes. I would simply chalk it up to just -- we have some pretty lumpy pads in the way we develop. It really just comes down to some of the liquids-rich pads that we acquired from Tug and how that alternates with some of the more of the Utica pads that get turned online or other Marcellus, just dry Marcellus activity. So it's just kind of normal course lumpiness. But I wouldn't expect any sort of long-term trend or change from what you've seen recently.

是的。我簡單地將其歸結為——我們在開發過程中有一些相當凹凸不平的墊子。這實際上取決於我們從 Tug 獲得的一些富含液體的墊子，以及如何與一些更多的 Utica 墊子進行交替，這些墊子在線或其他 Marcellus，只是乾燥的 Marcellus 活動。所以這只是正常的塊狀現象。但我預計不會出現任何長期趨勢或與您最近看到的變化相比。

Your next question comes from the line of Ati Modak with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Ati Modak。

You talked about the capital allocation priorities this year highlighted debt paydown as the focus, maybe help us understand the thought process around how your view of the macro environment factors into that decision matrix between the different pieces and how we could expect that to evolve?

您談到了今年的資本配置優先事項，強調了債務償還作為重點，也許可以幫助我們理解圍繞您對宏觀環境的看法如何影響不同部分之間的決策矩陣的思維過程，以及我們預計它會如何演變？

Yes, for sure. It actually is really driven by the macro in many ways. I think at a high level -- I mean, look, I think we're as bullish as anybody as it relates to the gas macro outlook as you get to kind of mid-'25 into 2026. So really, what we have to weigh on our end is if we did -- if we reallocated those dollars instead to debt pay down to something like a buyback and accelerating that right now, it would probably, in turn, cause us to want to go hedge more and protect the balance sheet in case you just had a bunch of macro factors not go according to plan in that time period.

是肯定的。它實際上在很多方面都是由宏觀驅動的。我認為從高水平來看，我的意思是，看，我認為我們和任何人一樣看好天然氣宏觀前景，從 25 年中期到 2026 年。所以說真的，我們必須做什麼令我們感到壓力的是，如果我們這樣做的話——如果我們重新分配這些美元，而不是用於償還債務，例如回購，並立即加速這一進程，反過來，這可能會導致我們想要更多地進行對沖並保護平衡以防萬一您在該時間段內遇到了一系列宏觀因素未按計劃進行。

So when it comes to opportunity costs for us, it's really just a simple question of what's the upside swing in the dollars buying the stock versus the upside, leaving that more unhedged. And I think with the asymmetric expectation we have to where pricing could go. Certainly by the end of 2025 as you get into 2026 that -- I mean, that dwarfs any sort of return we can get just by buying back stock right now.

因此，當談到我們的機會成本時，這實際上只是一個簡單的問題，即購買股票的美元相對於上漲空間的上行波動是多少，從而使其更加無法對沖。我認為，由於預期不對稱，我們必須確定定價的方向。當然，到 2025 年底，當你進入 2026 年時，我的意思是，這將使我們現在透過回購股票所能獲得的任何回報相形見絀。

And so for us, the question is what ultimately is going to create the most shareholder value. And so really, we'd rather be patient on the hedging front and use our dollars near term to just to derisk the balance sheet.

因此，對我們來說，問題是什麼最終將創造最大的股東價值。事實上，我們寧願在對沖方面保持耐心，並在短期內使用我們的美元來降低資產負債表的風險。

So really by doing that, we think that actually gives investors more upside and exposure to gas prices. And if, for some reason, things don't work out on our expectations on the macro, it provides more downside at the same time. So that's why we've allocated and plan to allocate the way I already explained.

因此，我們認為，透過這樣做，實際上會為投資者帶來更多的上漲空間和對天然氣價格的曝險。如果由於某種原因，事情沒有達到我們對宏觀經濟的預期，那麼它同時會帶來更多的負面影響。這就是為什麼我們已經分配併計劃按照我已經解釋過的方式進行分配。

Got it. And then you mentioned the low cost structure as an advantage. You mentioned a couple of drivers there as well, but I was wondering if you could provide some more color on those pieces and what drives it down further over the next few years?

知道了。然後您提到低成本結構是一個優勢。你也提到了一些驅動因素，但我想知道你是否可以在這些作品上提供更多的色彩，以及是什麼推動了它在未來幾年進一步下降？

Yes. I mean it's a couple of kind of key things, and it's really contractual. So I mean our gathering rights, I mean, you've seen our guidance with MVP coming online, the impact on just the full year is those rates stepping down at the same time MVP goes into service. Those further step down, as we've talked about before, into 2026, '27 really hit a bottom in 2028. And so really, those rates are Equitrans contract that last year were about $0.80 for just the gathering rate hit a bottom of $0.30 by the time you get to 2028.

是的。我的意思是，這是一些關鍵的事情，而且它確實是契約性的。所以我的意思是我們的收集權利，我的意思是，您已經看到了我們對 MVP 的指導，對全年的影響是在 MVP 投入使用的同時這些費率下降。正如我們之前討論過的那樣，這些利率進一步下降，進入2026 年，'27 確實在2028 年觸底。實際上，這些利率是Equitrans 合約，去年約為0.80 美元，而收集費率則觸及0.30 美元的底部到2028年的時候。

On a blended basis, I mean, they don't gather all of our production. So on a blended basis, it's a little more muted. You don't see that full $0.50 drop. But that is a contractual step down that is part of our longer-term forecast. And again, just a tailwind to us even if you have flat pricing and everything else in the environment doesn't improve.

我的意思是，在混合的基礎上，他們不會收集我們所有的產品。因此，在混合的基礎上，它會更加柔和一些。您看不到 0.50 美元的全額下跌。但這是合約的減少，是我們長期預測的一部分。再說一次，即使你有統一的定價，而且環境中的其他一切都沒有改善，這對我們來說只是順風車。

And then the other piece of that, too, as we talked about last quarter, these supply deals that we signed downstream MVP. And so that's going to also improve our realizations, our realized pricing by $0.15 to $0.20, which over our production base is that kind of rounded $300 million of free cash flow.

然後，正如我們上季度討論的那樣，另一部分也是我們與下游 MVP 簽署的供應協議。因此，這也將提高我們的實現，我們的實現定價提高 0.15 美元至 0.20 美元，在我們的生產基地上，自由現金流約為 3 億美元。

So it's really the combination of the 2. There's some offsetting factors in there, but around like compression adds and you have a tailwind as you pay down debt, your interest expense falls as well. But -- by the time you get to 2028, we see that breakeven cost structure about $2.30, down about $0.30 from where we sit right now. So it's a continued tailwind.

所以這實際上是兩者的結合。其中有一些抵消因素，但像壓縮增加一樣，當你償還債務時，你有一個順風，你的利息支出也會下降。但是，到 2028 年，我們看到損益平衡成本結構約為 2.30 美元，比我們現在的水準下降約 0.30 美元。所以這是一個持續的順風。

And look, as we've talked about, I think over and over again, I think that is really unique to EQT. I think where you are in the shale revolution right now, a lot of that core inventory is depleted or rapidly getting depleted. I expect a lot of cost structures to be rising over that period. So it's really a unique differentiating characteristic of EQT and it's really just further like share price upside, free cash flow upside relative to what you get anywhere else.

正如我們所討論的，我一遍又一遍地思考，我認為這確實是 EQT 的獨特之處。我認為目前頁岩油革命所處的位置，許多核心庫存已經耗盡或正在迅速耗盡。我預計在此期間許多成本結構都會上升。因此，這確實是殷拓的一個獨特的差異化特徵，而且它實際上就像股價上漲、自由現金流相對於其他地方的上漲一樣。

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Hanold with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Scott Hanold。

You all kind of indicate that your breakeven point this year is around $220. And -- how do you think about that with the gas -- if gas prices do, say, continue to trend on the direction they are related to weather, whatnot, I mean would you guys be willing to make changes to make sure that you guys generate positive free cash flow, like so -- the bottom line question is like when you start getting around that $220 threshold, would you be willing to cut a little bit more to kind of preserve free cash flow rather than burn some cash?

你們都表示今年的損益平衡點約為 220 美元。而且——你如何看待天然氣——如果天然氣價格確實繼續沿著與天氣相關的方向發展，我的意思是你們願意做出改變以確保你們人們會產生正的自由現金流，就像這樣——最根本的問題是，當你開始突破220 美元的門檻時，你是否願意多削減一點以保留自由現金流，而不是燒掉一些現金？

Yes, Scott, I think there's 2 factors that we think about that would cause us to curtail. One is preserving the ability to not lose money. And so that certainly would look for us to curtail. And the other one is we're looking in 2025, where you see a $1 higher pricing, and that is even -- that's going to be further intensive for us to pinch back and deliver those molecules into a higher-priced market. So yes, it's something we're watching and thinking a lot about.

是的，史考特，我認為我們認為有兩個因素會導致我們削減開支。一是保持不賠錢的能力。因此，我們肯定會削減開支。另一個是我們期待 2025 年，屆時您會看到價格上漲 1 美元，這對我們來說將進一步集中，以減少並將這些分子輸送到價格更高的市場。所以，是的，這是我們正在觀察和思考的事情。

Yes, Scott, I'd just underpin too. I mean you have to remember, I mean, certainly for a business like EQT, where we're drilling 15, 20 wells a pad, the CapEx we spend this year has no real impact on our production this year. It really has an impact on production next year. And so when we're thinking about that sort of rate of return and you save yourself $100 million this year, what's the impact on free cash flow next year.

是的，史考特，我也會支持。我的意思是，你必須記住，我的意思是，對於像EQT 這樣的企業來說，我們每個平台鑽15 口、20 口井，我們今年花費的資本支出對我們今年的生產沒有真正的影響。這對明年的生產確實有影響。因此，當我們考慮這種回報率時，如果您今年節省了 1 億美元，那麼對明年的自由現金流有何影響。

Certainly, with where pricing even is today after pulling back, and I think our expectation is probably significantly higher than the strip today. It's really hard for us to justify that, especially just given the financial position we're in, the amount of liquidity we have in our credit ratings. We're just not under the same pressure that most of our peers are. So that allows us to be a little stickier and plan for the long term and not be as reactive.

當然，考慮到今天的價格在回調後的水平，我認為我們的預期可能會比今天的地帶高得多。我們真的很難證明這一點是合理的，特別是考慮到我們所處的財務狀況以及我們信用評級中的流動性。我們只是沒有像大多數同行那樣承受同樣的壓力。因此，這使我們能夠更加堅持並制定長期計劃，而不是那麼被動。

But look, we -- as we said before, our production guidance gives us flexibility to reduce as needed. But reducing CapEx activity this year is not -- I mean it'd be window addressing this year at the expense of next year, and it's just not how we run the business.

但是，正如我們之前所說，我們的生產指導使我們能夠靈活地根據需要減少產量。但今年減少資本支出活動並不是——我的意思是，這只是今年的窗口解決方案，而以犧牲明年為代價，而且這不是我們經營業務的方式。

Yes. And Toby, I appreciate the fact that, obviously, looking at the forward curve, we do all obviously, that improvement. But one could argue if we step back several months ago, I mean, certainly, 2024 looked significantly better than it is right now. So like as you step back and think about the macro, like what do you think the big risks are that this gas price trend remains what we've been seeing outside of, obviously, weather. But more on, I guess, the political front and everything else that's out there? And then how do you react as a company of this persistence into 2025?

是的。托比，我很欣賞這樣一個事實，顯然，從遠期曲線來看，我們顯然做了所有這些改進。但如果我們退到幾個月前，有人可能會說，我的意思是，2024 年看起來肯定比現在好得多。因此，就像您退後一步思考宏觀問題一樣，您認為最大的風險是什麼，即天然氣價格趨勢仍然是我們在天氣之外看到的情況。但我想，還有更多關於政治方面和其他一切的事情嗎？作為一家堅持到 2025 年的公司，您有何反應？

Yes, it's a great question. Listen, I think on the political front, I mean, I think political force can override market forces for so long. And our job is to align with the market is to make sure the energy we produce is the cheapest, most reliable, cleanest form of energy that's out there. And I think eventually, the demand for this product is going to overweigh, I think, the political short-term gains that people are thinking that they're helping by doing this. So I mean, long term, we feel even more optimistic about the large role natural gas will play in the commodity mix going forward.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。聽著，我認為在政治方面，我的意思是，我認為政治力量可以長期凌駕於市場力量之上。我們的工作是與市場保持一致，確保我們生產的能源是現有的最便宜、最可靠、最乾淨的能源形式。我認為最終，對這種產品的需求將超過人們認為他們這樣做所獲得的政治短期利益。所以我的意思是，從長遠來看，我們對天然氣將在未來的商品結構中發揮的重要作用更加樂觀。

But yes, I mean, in the short term, we need to be sensitive to the market that we're in. Activity reduction is going to be a big thing. I mean, a key part of our thinking is we positioned our business to be a low-cost operator in the U.S. I mean our breakevens are significantly lower than what we think is the marginal cost of production. And we're going to see if those marginal producers reduce activities. We've already seen that start to happen. But that's something we're going to be monitoring and then it's -- eventually, we will have a normal winter. But even without that, with just normal weather, we should be balanced coming into 2025.

但是，是的，我的意思是，在短期內，我們需要對我們所處的市場保持敏感。活動減少將是一件大事。我的意思是，我們想法的關鍵部分是我們將我們的業務定位為美國的低成本營運商。我的意思是我們的收支平衡遠低於我們認為的邊際生產成本。我們將看看那些邊際生產者是否減少了活動。我們已經看到這種情況開始發生。但這是我們將要監測的事情，最終，我們將度過一個正常的冬天。但即使沒有這些，只要天氣正常，我們在 2025 年就應該保持平衡。

And Scott, with all the bearish narratives out there, I think it's really important to remember that with these data revisions that came out of Genscape a week or so ago, I mean, production levels were not at 107, pushing this bearish narrative production levels today are like 104.5. And so if you look at where we're at today with normal weather, the market is actually balanced. And so the extra, call it, 275 Bcf that's in storage right now is really just a result of, again, a really warm El Nino winter. If we had just had normal weather, the market would be balanced right now.

斯科特，考慮到所有看跌的敘述，我認為記住這一點非常重要，根據大約一周前Genscape 發布的這些數據修訂，我的意思是，生產水平不是107，從而推動了這種看跌敘述的生產水平今天就像104.5。因此，如果你看看今天天氣正常的情況，市場實際上是平衡的。因此，現在儲存的額外的 275 Bcf 實際上只是一個非常溫暖的厄爾尼諾冬季的結果。如果天氣正常，市場現在就會平衡。

So I think this sort of overarching view of the market is just so out of balance, production is way too high. LNG is delayed. I think when you step back and kind of cut through the noise, it's really not the case, which is I think why we're being a little more patient and disciplined here. And as it relates to a lot of the LNG headlines and some of the politics playing into that, I mean, there's really no impact through -- at least the end of 2026. So as we look at the market today, we don't really see any change in the LNG build-out time line. I mean we expect in Q3, Q4, those facilities start to come online.

所以我認為這種對市場的整體看法非常不平衡，產量太高了。液化天然氣延遲。我認為，當你退後一步，消除噪音時，事實並非如此，我認為這就是為什麼我們在這裡要更加耐心和自律。由於它與許多液化天然氣頭條新聞以及參與其中的一些政治有關，我的意思是，至少到 2026 年底，實際上不會產生任何影響。因此，當我們今天審視市場時，我們不會確實看到了液化天然氣建設時間表的任何變化。我的意思是，我們預計在第三季、第四季，這些設施將開始上線。

And again, I think that the work the market needs to do is just to clean up that excess overhang in storage coming out of winter. But the market is really not that far out of balance. I mean, it's a difference of 1% to 2% kind of change in your fundamental model. And it can flip back pretty quick, too. So I think if you're running a long-term business, you just have to -- you have to keep that in focus. We're really not that far out of whack on the fundamentals.

再說一次，我認為市場需要做的工作只是清理冬季過後多餘的庫存。但市場其實沒有那麼嚴重失衡。我的意思是，基本模型有 1% 到 2% 的變化。而且它也可以很快翻轉回來。所以我認為，如果你經營的是一家長期業務，你就必須——你必須集中精力。我們在基本面方面確實並沒有偏離太遠。

Yes. No, I appreciate that. And Toby, we all appreciate your -- obviously, your insights into the political side. So just kind of curious if I can extend the question. Like what are some of the major pushbacks you're getting when you go to Washington and try to fight for kind of the gas companies? What is the main pushback? And how do you address it?

是的。不，我很欣賞這一點。托比，我們都很欣賞你──顯然，你對政治方面的見解。所以我只是好奇我是否可以擴展這個問題。就像當你去華盛頓並試圖為天然氣公司爭取利益時遇到的一些主要阻力是什麼？主要的阻力是什麼？你如何解決這個問題？

Yes. I mean, it's really just asking people to step back and see. It seems like we're in violent disagreement -- violent agreement here on what we want from our energy system in the future, like Republican Democrat, everybody wants more affordable energy. Everybody wants more reliable energy. Everybody wants cleaner energy. And I think the work that we're doing is highlighting -- I mean, I'd say the biggest difference that we're doing -- the hump that we need to get people over is to understand that natural gas is a cleaner form of energy.

是的。我的意思是，這實際上只是要求人們退後一步看看。看起來我們有激烈的分歧——對於我們未來想要從我們的能源系統中得到什麼，我們達成了激烈的一致，就像共和黨民主黨一樣，每個人都想要更便宜的能源。每個人都想要更可靠的能源。每個人都想要更乾淨的能源。我認為我們正在做的工作是強調——我的意思是，我想說我們正在做的最大的不同——我們需要讓人們克服的困難是理解天然氣是一種更清潔的形式的能量。

And the good news is we don't have to play with theories. We don't have to rely on literature. We have case studies at big scale that show that natural gas is a decarbonizing force, whether that's simply putting the spotlight in America and showcasing why we are the #1 leader in lowering emissions in the world. It's because of natural gas.

好消息是我們不必玩弄理論。我們不必依賴文學。我們有大規模的案例研究，顯示天然氣是一種脫碳力量，無論這是否只是讓美國成為人們關注的焦點，還是展示了為什麼我們是世界減排的第一大領導者。這是因為天然氣。

And also, I'd say the other narrative we need to address is the fact that some people think that America is the largest producer of oil and gas, the regulations or pipeline blockages can't be that bad. But I think the simple response to that position is yes, we might be the largest producer of oil and gas in the country. We are the largest exporter of LNG in the world.

而且，我想說的是，我們需要解決的另一個說法是，有些人認為美國是最大的石油和天然氣生產國，法規或管線堵塞不會那麼糟。但我認為對這一立場的簡單回應是肯定的，我們可能是全國最大的石油和天然氣生產國。我們是世界上最大的液化天然氣出口國。

But the question that needs to be asked is, is that enough? We've got ramp of inflation, wars in Ukraine, global emissions still skyrocketing, energy poverty is growing, energy security is crippled. Clearly, the United States needs to do a whole heck of a lot more because the world can only contain so much chaos before it starts spilling over and impacting Americans.

但需要問的問題是，這就夠了嗎？我們面臨通貨膨脹加劇、烏克蘭戰爭、全球排放量仍在飆升、能源貧窮日益嚴重、能源安全受到削弱等問題。顯然，美國需要做更多的事情，因為在混亂開始蔓延並影響美國人之前，世界只能遏制這麼多的混亂。

So the world security is our security. And these are simple points that we can make. It is a little bit of a different perspective that people haven't thought too much about. You lay that common sense approach underneath the framework from climate leaders around the world that recently gathered at COP and came out with a very simple punch list of what needs to happen. Transition fuels are going to be necessary to meet the climate ambitions that we have. That's a fancy word for natural gas is going to play a role. Carbon capture is going to be a part of those solutions.

所以世界的安全就是我們的安全。這些都是我們可以提出的簡單觀點。這是一個有點不同的觀點，人們沒有考慮太多。您將這種常識性方法置於最近聚集在締約方大會上的世界各地氣候領導人的框架之下，並提出了非常簡單的需要採取的行動清單。為了實現我們的氣候目標，過渡燃料將是必要的。這是一個很奇特的詞，表示天然氣將發揮作用。碳捕獲將成為這些解決方案的一部分。

And then I think also the recognition that solar and wind as great as they can be. They're not the complete solution, and you need a heavyweight solution, and that is natural gas to meet the goal. So we've got cover from the environmental front, but it's really just getting this common sense message out, and that's where we spend a lot of time working the megaphone.

然後我還認為認識到太陽能和風能盡可能偉大。它們不是完整的解決方案，您需要一個重量級的解決方案，那就是天然氣來實現目標。因此，我們從環境方面得到了掩護，但這實際上只是傳達常識性訊息，這就是我們花費大量時間使用擴音器的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的喬許‧西爾弗斯坦 (Josh Silverstein)。

You mentioned previously that you think we're in an environment where natural gas could be $2 or it could be $4. How do you operate in that environment? Does your production stay relatively flat through all this? Do you build DUCs when we're at $2? Do you release them when we're at $4? How are you kind of thinking about your development plans going forward and that kind of framework?

您之前提到，您認為我們所處的環境中天然氣價格可能為 2 美元，也可能為 4 美元。在那種環境下你是如何運作的？在這一切過程中，你們的產量是否保持相對穩定？當我們的價格為 2 美元時，你們會建造 DUC 嗎？當我們的價格為 4 美元時，你們會發布它們嗎？您對未來的發展計畫和框架有何看法？

Yes, I'd say at a very high level, I mean, keys to success is to have a low-cost structure so that we can weather the storm. And that also is going to position us to be opportunistic to play some of the volatility. Operate -- and I'll let Jeremy expand on that in a little bit. But operationally, one of the things that we have looked to build into our business is the ability to bring some surge capacity. So understand whether that's choke management and pension volumes back so we can respond to higher price environments or in some cases, just holding back some TILs and building some DUCs.

是的，我想說，在一個非常高的層面上，我的意思是，成功的關鍵是擁有一個低成本的結構，以便我們可以度過難關。這也將使我們能夠機會主義地應對一些波動。操作——我會讓傑里米稍微擴展一下。但在營運方面，我們希望在業務中建立的目標之一是能夠帶來一些激增的產能。因此，請了解這是否會抑制管理和退休金數量的回升，以便我們能夠應對價格上漲的環境，或者在某些情況下，只是抑制一些 TIL 並建立一些 DUC。

I think having a flexible program is going to be something that's needed. But -- that's going to be more around the edges. Having a low cost structure is going to allow us to run consistent programs and be responsive but not be completely whipsawed by the commodity price.

我認為有一個靈活的計劃將是必要的。但是——這將更加邊緣化。低成本結構將使我們能夠運行一致的計劃並做出回應，但不會完全受到商品價格的影響。

Yes. I mean I think one of the key things to remember as you think about how to actually manage the business in that environment comes down to like how do you see that distribution of outcomes. And so remember, our cost structure being -- call it, mid-2s now headed towards low 2s. If we think about like what's the worst that's happened in the last couple of years, which was 2020, and you had gas settled at about $1.99, let's call it $2. In an environment like that, even if we at EQT weren't hedged and we have like a $230 breakeven, our free cash flow outflow would be in the -- I don't know, $500 million to $700 million range. So a lot, and you can certainly hedge to protect that.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，當您考慮如何在該環境中實際管理業務時，要記住的關鍵事情之一就是您如何看待結果的分配。所以請記住，我們的成本結構是——可以這麼說，中 2 秒現在正在向低 2 秒邁進。如果我們想想過去幾年（即 2020 年）發生的最糟糕的情況，而 Gas 價格約為 1.99 美元，我們稱之為 2 美元。在這樣的環境下，即使我們 EQT 沒有進行對沖，並且我們的盈虧平衡點約為 230 美元，我們的自由現金流流出也會在——我不知道，5 億至 7 億美元的範圍內。這麼多，你當然可以對沖來保護它。

But imagine being a producer in that environment and your breakeven is $3 and you're at scale, I mean you would have multiple billions of dollars of cash outflows, you just can't survive for more than a year of that because your liquidity gets drained.

但想像一下，在那種環境下，作為一名生產商，你的盈虧平衡點是3 美元，而且你的規模很大，我的意思是，你將有數十億美元的現金流出，你無法生存超過一年，因為你的流動性耗盡。

So for us, I think one of the things we have realized at scale is that one of the risks that is created is if you pair scale with a really volatile environment and your cost structure is too high, even if your balance sheet is clean, you can put yourself in a pretty precarious position pretty quick. So that's why we sort of -- that's why we focus so much on driving that cost structure down because for us, if our downside, call it, $0.50 and that's pretty low, but if the upside is you have a year settling at $6, $7, $8, I mean you're talking about $10 billion type of cash flow to our business.

因此，對我們來說，我認為我們在規模化過程中意識到的一件事是，所產生的風險之一是，如果你將規模化與真正不穩定的環境結合起來，並且你的成本結構太高，即使你的資產負債表是乾淨的，你很快就會把自己置於一個非常危險的境地。這就是為什麼我們如此專注於降低成本結構，因為對我們來說，如果我們的缺點是 0.5 美元，那是相當低的，但如果好處是你一年的成本穩定在 6 美元， 7 美元、8 美元，我的意思是您正在談論我們業務的100 億美元類型的現金流。

So we want to be in a position where we don't have to hedge and inherently having a low cost structure like a structural hedge. And I think that really is what positions us to -- again, not only just kind of survive in cruise through those down periods, but not have to defensively hedge so much of your production that you really missed out on the price. And the price is that sort of asymmetric upside.

因此，我們希望處於一個不需要對沖的境地，並且本質上擁有像結構性對沖這樣的低成本結構。我認為這確實是我們的定位——再次強調，我們不僅能夠在經濟低迷時期生存下來，而且不必防禦性地對沖大量生產，以免錯過價格機會。價格是一種不對稱的上漲空間。

So again, I think at a high level, you might -- some people might say, well, it's a little dilutive to just focus on cost structure so much near term. I think that's easy to see if you run a static model at like $3.50, $4 gas. Well, that doesn't capture those is the element of volatility. And if you talk to any of the producers, any of our peers, I think the theme of volatility is well understood.

所以，我再次認為，在較高的層面上，有些人可能會說，好吧，短期內如此關注成本結構有點稀釋作用。我認為如果你以 3.50 美元、4 美元的汽油費運行靜態模型，就很容易看出這一點。嗯，這並沒有捕捉到波動性的因素。如果你與任何製作人、我們的任何同行交談，我認為波動性的主題是很好理解的。

I just -- I think EQT is unique in how we position ourselves to, again, be structurally defensive towards that for long-term investors and then provide the best risk-adjusted upside to that theme and capture that every 3 to 4 years when that sort of windfall period shows up.

我只是- 我認為殷拓的獨特之處在於我們如何定位自己，再次對長期投資者採取結構性防禦，然後為該主題提供最佳的風險調整後的上行空間，並每3 到4 年捕捉到這一點。某種意外之財期出現了。

And again, I mean, think about it, we had a little bit -- you had a warm winter this year. You have an extra 275 Bs in storage. It could have gone the other way. And we will have winners that go the other way. You could have pricing at $5 just as quickly as you have pricing at $1.50. And that amount of cash flow at our scale is just an absolutely tremendous amount of value. So we're trying to position ourselves to be able to capture it and not -- again, like the last couple of years where we lost so much on hedging, continue to give that upside up. So that's, again, why we just sort of philosophically focus on running the business the way we do.

我的意思是，想想看，我們今年經歷了一個溫暖的冬天。您還有額外的 275 B 儲存空間。事情可能會走向相反的方向。我們也會有相反的贏家。您可以像定價 1.50 美元一樣快速定價 5 美元。以我們的規模來看，這筆現金流絕對是個巨大的價值。因此，我們正在努力定位自己，以便能夠抓住它，而不是——就像過去幾年我們在對沖方面損失慘重一樣，繼續放棄這一優勢。這就是為什麼我們在哲學上專注於以我們的方式經營業務。

My last question was just on hedges. You mentioned a lot in there, but it looks like you didn't add anything for 2025. I definitely get the constructive outlook that you guys have. But clearly there's the factor of weather, which you have mentioned as well that we just don't know how that will play out. Why not at least look to add in something for 2025 at this point, just to have a base level in there? It looks like you added something for second half or fourth quarter for this year below where the strip is next year. So I thought that would be great.

我的最後一個問題只是關於樹籬。你在那裡提到了很多，但看起來你沒有為 2025 年添加任何內容。我絕對理解你們的建設性前景。但顯然有天氣因素，你也提到過，我們只是不知道結果會如何。為什麼不至少考慮在 2025 年添加一些東西，只是為了在那裡有一個基本水平？看來您在今年下半年或第四季的位置下方添加了一些內容，低於明年的位置。所以我想那會很棒。

Yes. So I think we think about hedging going forward, just with our balance sheet and credit ratings where we are. I think you'll see us start to hedge at a level that effectively drops our -- I mean, look, if you think about what hedging does in a low price environment, it effectively synthetically drops your breakeven price. And so if our breakeven price, call it, is headed towards $2.30, we might long-term hedge between like 20% and 30%. And so if you do get that $2 a year on average, that's kind of your free cash flow breakeven point on a hedged basis, we're kind of towards that with our hedging in 2024 right now. That's that $220 level that we talked about.

是的。因此，我認為我們會考慮在我們目前的資產負債表和信用評級的情況下進行對沖。我想你會看到我們開始在一個水平上進行對沖，這實際上會降低我們的——我的意思是，看，如果你考慮一下對沖在低價環境下的作用，它會有效地綜合降低你的損益平衡價格。因此，如果我們的盈虧平衡價格接近 2.30 美元，我們可能會在 20% 到 30% 之間進行長期對沖。因此，如果你每年平均獲得 2 美元，這就是你在對沖基礎上的自由現金流盈虧平衡點，我們現在在 2024 年的對沖中就朝著這個目標邁進。這就是我們討論的 220 美元水平。

I think -- look, we don't plan to go into 2025 totally unhedged. I think we're just willing to be patient. And I think some of the bearish narrative in positioning in the commodity markets has really pushed pricing really below where it probably needs to be. So look, we don't need to hedge defensively right now. I think we're -- we want to be opportunistic, and we just think there's so much asymmetric called SKU that should show up in that market in 2025. I think we're willing to be patient on that. But I mean, look, we will take off risk at the right point in time, but we're going to continue to be patient on that.

我認為，我們不打算毫無對沖地進入 2025 年。我認為我們只是願意耐心等待。我認為，大宗商品市場定位中的一些看跌言論確實將定價推至低於其可能需要的水平。所以看，我們現在不需要進行防禦性對沖。我認為我們想要機會主義，我們只是認為有很多不對稱的 SKU 應該在 2025 年出現在這個市場上。我認為我們願意對此保持耐心。但我的意思是，我們將在正確的時間點消除風險，但我們將繼續對此保持耐心。

Our last question will come from the line of Paul Diamond with Citi.

我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗銀行的保羅·戴蒙德 (Paul Diamond)。

I just wanted to touch base real quickly on -- you talked about LOE and some of the savings have been driven by water handling. I guess my question is how much more, I guess, meat on the bone you think there is there? How much further do you think you can drive it lower?

我只是想快速了解一下——您談到了 LOE，部分節省是透過水處理實現的。我想我的問題是，你認為還有多少骨頭上的肉？您認為還能降低多少？

Yes, I'd say that we had a big step change. I think if you look at the water recycling rate. That's a big driver on a large portion of our LOE. Obviously, water is the biggest portion. So the goal for us is to stay in that 95% plus range on water recycling. I think the other benefits to the water system will come through just more efficient logistics to service our completions team and allow to give these guys the space to continue to run hard and continue to capture the operational efficiencies they're seeing there.

是的，我想說我們發生了很大的變化。我想如果你看看水的回收率。這是我們大部分 LOE 的重要驅動因素。顯然，水是最大的部分。因此，我們的目標是保持水回收率在 95% 以上。我認為供水系統的其他好處將透過更有效率的物流來為我們的完工團隊提供服務，並為這些人提供繼續努力運作的空間，並繼續提高他們在那裡看到的營運效率。

Understood. And then just kind of one final quick one. As the prop market sits right now on the curve, how should we think about kind of the operational cadence through the year with that 140 -- or 110 to 140 TILs. Should we think about that as pretty steady throughout the year, more back half loaded? Or how should we think about it as the market sits down?

明白了。然後就是最後一個快速的。由於自營市場目前正處於曲線上，我們應該如何考慮全年 140 或 110 至 140 個 TIL 的營運節奏。我們是否應該認為全年都相當穩定，更多的後半負載？或者當市場平靜下來時我們該如何思考？

Yes. Look, I'd call it pretty steady throughout the year. I mean, when you're running the size of spreads we are and the size of logistics operations, it's not something you start to stop quickly or easily. The bar is pretty high for that. I think the range we give is just based on some shifts in timing that can happen. I think in terms of the macro environment, I mean, look, we -- the quickest thing that's going to balance the market is not having operators in Appalachia, which have a pretty shallow base decline cutting activity and are drilling big pads that are hard to slow down.

是的。看，我認為全年都相當穩定。我的意思是，當你考慮到我們的價差規模和物流業務的規模時，你不會很快或輕易地停止這種事情。門檻相當高。我認為我們給出的範圍只是基於可能發生的一些時間變化。我認為就宏觀環境而言，我的意思是，平衡市場的最快方法是在阿巴拉契亞沒有運營商，這些運營商的切削活動基礎下降相當淺，並且正在鑽探堅硬的大型墊層。慢下來。

I mean that's baseload supply as we think about it. When we think about really the production that needs to come out of the market, the fastest way to balance the market, it's taking Haynesville activity even further downward. They're drilling 2 to 3 wells at a time on the pads, becoming more and more infill wells, and you have a 50% to 60% base decline. A cut in that activity would balance the market a lot faster. And that's also the marginal producer today and will continue to be in the future.

我的意思是，我們認為這是基本負載供應。當我們真正考慮需要退出市場的產量時，這是平衡市場的最快方法，它使海恩斯維爾的活動進一步下降。他們一次在平台上鑽探 2 到 3 口井，加密井數量越來越多，基礎遞減率達到 50% 到 60%。減少該活動將更快平衡市場。這也是今天的邊際生產者，並將在未來繼續如此。

So we expect that's really where the volatility of production and variances and production cadence will show up and will continue to show up, I think, in the backdrop of volatility that we've talked about.

因此，我們預計這確實是生產、差異和生產節奏的波動性將出現的地方，我認為，在我們討論的波動性背景下，這將繼續出現。

I'll now hand the call back to Toby Rice for any closing remarks.

現在，我將把電話轉回托比賴斯 (Toby Rice)，讓其結束語。

Thank you, everybody, for your time. We are looking forward to executing for you in 2024. Thanks a lot.

謝謝大家抽出時間。我們期待在 2024 年為您執行。非常感謝。

That does conclude today's meeting. We thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect. Thank you.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的加入，現在您可以斷開連線。謝謝。