EQT Corp (EQT) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning or good afternoon, all, and welcome to the EQT Q1 Results Conference Call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions)

大家早上好或下午好，歡迎來到殷拓第一季度業績電話會議。我叫亞當，今天我將是你的接線員。 （操作員說明）

I will now hand the floor over to Cameron Horwitz, Managing Director of IR and Strategy. Cameron, ready when you are.

我現在將發言權交給 IR 和戰略部董事總經理 Cameron Horwitz。卡梅倫，你準備好了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2023 results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and David Khani, Chief Financial Officer. The replay for today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第一季度業績電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官托比·賴斯 (Toby Rice)；和首席財務官 David Khani。從今天晚上開始，我們的網站上將提供今天電話會議的重播。

In a moment, Toby and Dave will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow. An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion.

稍後，托比和戴夫將介紹他們準備好的發言，隨後是問答環節。更新的投資者介紹已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中參考某些幻燈片。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of the factors described in yesterday's earnings release and our investor presentation, in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。由於昨天的收益發布和我們的投資者介紹、10-K 表格的風險因素部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的後續文件中描述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議還可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們最近的收益發布和投資者介紹，了解有關此類措施的重要披露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務措施的調節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，卡姆，大家早上好。

While the current natural gas macro environment has created some headwinds for U.S. natural gas producers at large, the price pullback is reinforcing EQT's confidence in our corporate strategy and illuminating several facets of differentiation relative to our peers. A key pillar of distinction has been EQT's M&A strategy where we have taken a disciplined approach to acquisitions specifically focused on assets that lower our cost structure.

雖然當前的天然氣宏觀環境對美國天然氣生產商造成了一些不利影響，但價格回落增強了 EQT 對我們公司戰略的信心，並闡明了我們與同行的差異化的幾個方面。區別的一個關鍵支柱是 EQT 的併購戰略，在該戰略中，我們採取了嚴格的收購方法，特別專注於降低我們成本結構的資產。

The current gas price environment underscores the benefits of this strategy with enhanced free cash flow durability through the bottom parts of the commodity cycle allowing for accretive capital allocation decisions, resiliency and corporate returns and greater consistency and operational cadence.

當前的天然氣價格環境凸顯了這一戰略的優勢，即通過商品週期底部增強自由現金流的持久性，從而實現增值資本分配決策、彈性和企業回報以及更高的一致性和運營節奏。

Our pending Tug Hill acquisition further builds on this M&A strategy as it is expected to drive an additional $0.15 decline in our corporate free cash flow break-even price, providing even greater resiliency to our business moving forward.

我們即將進行的 Tug Hill 收購進一步建立在這一併購戰略的基礎上，因為預計它將使我們的企業自由現金流盈虧平衡價格再下降 0.15 美元，從而為我們的業務向前發展提供更大的彈性。

Another area where EQT is differentiating itself is through our evolved hedging strategy. While we no longer have financial needs requiring hedging given material improvements in our balance sheet, we have evolved into opportunistic hedgers, predominantly using wide collars to derisk free cash flow at the bottom part of the cycle, while maintaining material upside exposure toward natural gas prices.

殷拓與眾不同的另一個領域是我們不斷發展的對沖策略。考慮到資產負債表的重大改善，雖然我們不再有需要對沖的財務需求，但我們已經演變成機會主義對沖者，主要使用寬領來消除週期底部自由現金流的風險，同時保持對天然氣價格的重大上行風險.

This strategy is paying off in real time as EQT has among the best hedge books of any natural gas peer in 2023, with 62% of our production covered via floors with an average strike price of $3.38 per MMBtu.

這一策略正在獲得實時回報，因為 EQT 在 2023 年擁有所有天然氣同行中最好的對沖賬簿之一，我們 62% 的產量通過地板覆蓋，平均行使價為每百萬英熱單位 3.38 美元。

In conjunction with our M&A and cost-reduction efforts, our hedge book is a key factor driving our full year 2023 corporate NYMEX free cash flow breakeven down to less than $1.65 per MMBtu.

結合我們的併購和降低成本的努力，我們的對沖賬簿是推動我們 2023 年全年公司 NYMEX 自由現金流收支平衡降至每百萬英熱單位 1.65 美元以下的關鍵因素。

A third pillar of EQT's strategy driving distinction among peers is our opportunistic capital returns approach. When we rolled out our return framework in late 2021, we did so under the premise that we would look to maximize returns to shareholders via our capital allocation decisions, which requires a tactical and thoughtful approach to both debt repayment and equity repurchases. With more than a year under our belt of returning capital to shareholders, we believe our underlying approach and execution is generating superior results, which is exemplified by the fact that we have achieved the best return on our equity buybacks among our peer group and retired a material amount of debt at discounts to par as interest rates have risen.

殷拓在同行中脫穎而出的戰略的第三個支柱是我們的機會主義資本回報方法。當我們在 2021 年底推出回報框架時，我們這樣做的前提是我們希望通過我們的資本分配決策為股東帶來最大回報，這需要對債務償還和股權回購採取戰術和深思熟慮的方法。在我們向股東返還資本一年多的時間裡，我們相信我們的基本方法和執行正在產生卓越的結果，這體現在我們在同行集團中實現了最佳的股票回購回報，並退休了隨著利率上升，大量債務折價至面值。

A fourth element of differentiation comes on the environmental front as EQT has taken material steps forward in achieving our peer-leading goal of net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions from production operations by 2025. We highlighted the material benefit of completing our pneumatic device replacement initiative a year ahead of schedule with our fourth quarter results. And we are building upon this momentum with recent announcements of strategic partnerships directed at advancing the development of low carbon intensity, natural gas products and generating verifiable carbon offsets.

差異化的第四個要素來自環境方面，因為 EQT 在實現我們同行領先的目標方面邁出了實質性的一步，即到 2025 年生產運營產生的範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體淨零排放。我們強調了完成氣動裝置的物質利益我們的第四季度業績提前一年更換計劃。我們最近宣佈建立戰略合作夥伴關係，旨在推動低碳強度、天然氣產品的發展並產生可驗證的碳抵消，以此推動這一勢頭。

In short, we believe the key tenets of our corporate operating philosophy are laying the foundation for differentiated and sustainable long-term value creation for EQT, and you can expect continued execution upon our proven strategy going forward.

簡而言之，我們相信我們企業經營理念的主要原則是為 EQT 創造差異化和可持續的長期價值奠定基礎，您可以期待我們在未來的行之有效的戰略中繼續執行。

Now turning to first quarter results. 2023 got off to a very strong start across the board at EQT. As shown on Slide 7 of our investor presentation, we replicated the solid efficiency gains we achieved late last year in the first quarter with frac crew pumping hours up 35% year-over-year as the third-party infrastructure constraints that slowed our operational pace in 2022 moved firmly into the rear view.

現在轉向第一季度業績。 2023 年在 EQT 全面開局非常強勁。正如我們投資者介紹的幻燈片 7 所示，由於第三方基礎設施限制減緩了我們的運營步伐，我們在第一季度複製了去年底取得的穩固效率收益，壓裂船員的抽水時間同比增長 35% 2022年穩步進入後視。

These efficiency gains facilitated our first quarter production coming in 2% above the midpoint of guidance, while our CapEx came in 7% below the midpoint of our expectations. Our advantaged firm transportation portfolio allowed us to achieve an average differential of $0.16 above NYMEX. While operating expenses came in 2% below the midpoint of our guidance on lower-than-expected LOE, production taxes and G&A.

這些效率的提高使我們第一季度的產量比指導的中點高 2%，而我們的資本支出比我們預期的中點低 7%。我們具有優勢的公司運輸組合使我們能夠實現比 NYMEX 高出 0.16 美元的平均差價。雖然運營費用比我們對低於預期的 LOE、生產稅和 G&A 的指導的中點低 2%。

Combined, these factors drove free cash flow of $774 million during the first quarter which is EQT's highest quarterly free cash flow and significantly derisks our free cash flow generation for the year. I want to personally thank all members of our crew for their hard work in facilitating this execution as we have made significant strides toward our goal of achieving peak performance this year.

綜合起來，這些因素在第一季度推動了 7.74 億美元的自由現金流，這是 EQT 最高的季度自由現金流，並顯著降低了我們今年自由現金流產生的風險。我要親自感謝我們所有的工作人員，感謝他們為促進這次執行所做的辛勤工作，因為我們在今年實現最佳績效的目標方面取得了重大進展。

On the capital return front, we repurchased nearly 6 million shares or $200 million of stock during the first quarter at an average price of less than $34 per share. We also retired $210 million of debt principal during the quarter at an average cost of 96% of par. Even with these significant returns to shareholders, we exited the quarter with greater than $2.1 billion of cash on hand, up from $1.5 billion at year-end 2022.

在資本回報方面，我們在第一季度以低於每股 34 美元的平均價格回購了近 600 萬股或 2 億美元的股票。我們還在本季度以面值的 96% 的平均成本償還了 2.1 億美元的債務本金。即使有這些可觀的股東回報，我們在本季度結束時手頭現金仍超過 21 億美元，高於 2022 年底的 15 億美元。

Our net debt at the end of the first quarter was approximately $3.3 billion compared with the $4.2 billion at the end of 2022. Our net debt to trailing EBITDA currently stands at 0.9x, underscoring the tremendous balance sheet progress we have achieved over the past several years.

我們在第一季度末的淨債務約為 33 億美元，而 2022 年底為 42 億美元。我們的淨債務與尾隨 EBITDA 的比率目前為 0.9 倍，突顯了我們在過去幾年中取得的巨大資產負債表進展年。

In terms of full year guidance, we are reiterating our $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion capital budget, which excludes our pending Tug Hill acquisition. As a reminder, our 2023 budget includes $100-plus million of nonrecurring capital associated with third-party constraints that shifted roughly 30 TILs into 2023 and assumes 10% to 15% of year-over-year oilfield service cost inflation.

就全年指導而言，我們重申我們 17 億至 19 億美元的資本預算，其中不包括我們未決的 Tug Hill 收購。提醒一下，我們的 2023 年預算包括 100 多萬美元與第三方限制相關的非經常性資本，這些資本將大約 30 TIL 轉移到 2023 年，並假設油田服務成本同比上漲 10% 至 15%。

As it relates to the latter, we are seeing a notable trend of flattening out in oilfield service costs as industry activity moderates and we believe the stage is set for some degree of softening in the second half of the year, which, if manifested, would provide upside to our current outlook.

由於與後者相關，我們看到隨著行業活動放緩，油田服務成本呈趨於平緩的顯著趨勢，我們認為今年下半年將出現一定程度的疲軟，如果表現出來，將會為我們當前的前景提供上行空間。

Our 2023 production guidance is unchanged at 1,900 to 2,000 Bcfe, and we are operationally on track to get back to 500 Bcfe per quarter of run rate production by the middle of this year. That said, as we mentioned last quarter, the lower end of our guidance range contemplates scenarios where we slow our production cadence for the year should natural gas prices continue to deteriorate.

我們的 2023 年生產指導保持在 1,900 至 2,000 Bcfe，並且我們在運營上有望在今年年中之前恢復到每季度 500 Bcfe 的運行率生產。也就是說，正如我們上個季度提到的那樣，我們的指導範圍的下限考慮了在天然氣價格繼續惡化的情況下我們放慢今年生產節奏的情景。

And we have the flexibility to make game time decisions on our cadence as the year progresses. On Slide 32 of our investor presentation, we've provided an updated range of 2023 adjusted EBITDA, operated cash flow and free cash flow outlooks at various natural gas prices for the remainder of the year.

隨著時間的推移，我們可以根據自己的節奏靈活地決定比賽時間。在我們的投資者演示文稿的幻燈片 32 中，我們提供了今年剩餘時間以各種天然氣價格計算的 2023 年調整後 EBITDA、經營現金流和自由現金流前景的更新範圍。

At recent strip pricing and factoring in first quarter actuals, we forecast 2023 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.9 billion and free cash flow of roughly $1 billion this year, implying a 9% free cash flow yield at the bottom part of the commodity cycle.

根據最近的剝離定價和第一季度實際情況，我們預測 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 約為 29 億美元，今年的自由現金流約為 10 億美元，這意味著商品週期底部的自由現金流收益率為 9%。

As shown on Slide 5 of our presentation, our free cash flow generation has significant durability and duration, with our internal forecast projecting cumulative free cash flow from 2023 to 2027 of greater than $12 billion at strip pricing and excluding the benefit of Tug Hill.

如我們演示文稿的幻燈片 5 所示，我們的自由現金流產生具有顯著的持久性和持續時間，我們的內部預測預計 2023 年至 2027 年的累計自由現金流按剝離定價計算超過 120 億美元，不包括 Tug Hill 的收益。

This equates to more than 105% of our current market capitalization and greater than 80% of enterprise value, underscoring the significant value proposition embedded in EQT shares even after the recent decline in strip pricing. Our free cash flow outlook gives us tremendous confidence in being able to achieve our absolute debt target of $3.5 billion pro forma for the Tug Hill acquisition, while also being able to continue to opportunistically retiring our stock via our $2 billion share repurchase authorization.

這相當於我們目前市值的 105% 以上和企業價值的 80% 以上，這凸顯了 EQT 股票中蘊含的重要價值主張，即使在近期剝離定價下降之後也是如此。我們的自由現金流前景讓我們充滿信心，能夠實現收購 Tug Hill 的 35 億美元備考絕對債務目標，同時也能夠繼續通過我們的 20 億美元股票回購授權機會性地退出我們的股票。

Turning to our environmental initiatives. We announced multiple key projects over the past few weeks. First, we entered into a strategic partnership with Context Labs to advance the development of verified low-carbon intensity natural gas products and carbon offsets.

談談我們的環保舉措。我們在過去幾周宣布了多個重點項目。首先，我們與 Context Labs 建立了戰略合作夥伴關係，以推進經過驗證的低碳強度天然氣產品和碳補償的開發。

Through tracking, reporting and verification of critical emissions data, this strategic partnership will support us in achieving our industry-leading emissions reduction targets. With a focus on emissions quantification, operational analysis and the certification of natural gas production, we plan to work with Context Labs to scale emissions mitigation across the full energy value chain.

通過跟踪、報告和驗證關鍵排放數據，這一戰略夥伴關係將支持我們實現行業領先的減排目標。我們專注於排放量化、運營分析和天然氣生產認證，計劃與 Context Labs 合作，在整個能源價值鏈中擴大減排規模。

Context Labs will provide an enterprise-wide deployment across EQT's asset footprint, with the goal of achieving full digital integration of our carbon intensity data. The resulting creation of certified low-carbon intensity products will add another dimension to EQT's already robust and digitally enabled organization.

Context Labs 將提供跨 EQT 資產足蹟的企業範圍部署，目標是實現我們碳強度數據的完全數字集成。由此產生的經過認證的低碳強度產品將為 EQT 已經強大且數字化的組織增加另一個維度。

We view the emissions profile of our natural gas as a strategic asset for our shareholders, and this partnership will further aid in illuminating the relative value of our product and ensure EQT's molecules remain among the most coveted in the world.

我們將天然氣的排放情況視為股東的一項戰略資產，這種夥伴關係將進一步幫助闡明我們產品的相對價值，並確保 EQT 的分子仍然是世界上最令人垂涎的分子之一。

Additionally, we announced EQT's first nature-based carbon offset initiative earlier this month. We partnered with the Wheeling Park Commission, a public park in West Virginia, Teralytic a soil analytics company and Climate Smart Environmental Consulting to implement forest management projects with the goal of generating carbon offsets in our own backyard. These projects will span more than 1,000 acres of forest land and we will utilize Teralytic's soil probe technology to ensure the quantification of offsets is accurate and transparent.

此外，我們在本月早些時候宣布了 EQT 的首個基於自然的碳抵消計劃。我們與西弗吉尼亞州的公園 Wheeling Park Commission、土壤分析公司 Teralytic 和 Climate Smart Environmental Consulting 合作實施森林管理項目，目標是在我們自己的後院產生碳抵消。這些項目將跨越 1,000 多英畝的林地，我們將利用 Teralytic 的土壤探測技術來確保補償的量化是準確和透明的。

EQT has been an industry leader in reducing operational emissions, and our natural gas already has some of the lowest greenhouse gas intensity in the world. Nature-based projects like this, which are supported by cutting-edge technology that ensures accuracy and transparency, will offset our remaining emissions and be a key enabling factor for EQT to become the first energy company in the world of meaningful scale to achieve verifiable net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions.

殷拓一直是減少運營排放的行業領導者，我們的天然氣已經成為世界上溫室氣體排放強度最低的國家之一。像這樣以確保准確性和透明度的尖端技術為支持的以自然為基礎的項目，將抵消我們剩餘的排放量，並成為殷拓成為世界上第一家具有可驗證淨淨排放量的有意義規模的能源公司的關鍵推動因素零範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體排放。

As it relates to the pending Tug Hill acquisition, we have been constructively working with the FTC and believe we are on track to close the acquisition around midyear. Due to the relative value structure of the deal with a meaningful equity component and the interim free cash flow since the deal's effective date of July 1, 2022, we expect the price paid at closing to be roughly $2.3 billion of cash and approximately 48 million shares, which at a $33 per share price equates to a closing value of roughly $3.9 billion.

由於涉及待定的 Tug Hill 收購，我們一直在與 FTC 進行建設性合作，並相信我們有望在年中左右完成收購。由於具有重要股權成分的交易的相對價值結構以及自 2022 年 7 月 1 日交易生效之日起的中期自由現金流，我們預計收盤時支付的價格約為 23 億美元現金和約 4800 萬股股票，以每股 33 美元的價格計算，相當於大約 39 億美元的收盤價。

We note this deal structure contrasts with other recent transactions in the industry, which were cash heavy and thus more levered to commodity prices. This consideration mix, along with Tug Hill's cost structure have served as a hedge for EQT as gas prices have fallen as evidenced by the deal accretion more than doubling since announcement, all while leverage has stayed in check.

我們注意到這種交易結構與該行業最近的其他交易形成鮮明對比，後者現金較多，因此對商品價格的槓桿作用更大。這種對價組合以及 Tug Hill 的成本結構為 EQT 提供了對沖，因為天然氣價格已經下跌，這一點從交易宣布以來增加了一倍多就可以看出，同時槓桿率一直受到控制。

In summary, our strong first quarter results underscore that the third-party infrastructure challenges we faced last year are in the rearview and EQT is back to peak performance. We generated our highest quarterly free cash flow, repurchased a material amount of equity and debt and exited the quarter with an improved leverage position and over $2.1 billion of cash on hand.

總而言之，我們強勁的第一季度業績表明，我們去年面臨的第三方基礎設施挑戰已經過去，EQT 已恢復到最佳表現。我們產生了最高的季度自由現金流，回購了大量股權和債務，並以改善的槓桿狀況和超過 21 億美元的手頭現金退出了本季度。

While the current natural gas macro environment does present challenges, it also illuminates the relative advantages of EQT's corporate strategy, underpinned by large-scale combo development, a disciplined M&A focus on low-cost assets, a risk-adjusted hedging strategy and opportunistic capital returns. This unique corporate profile has laid the foundation for significant value creation through all parts of the commodity cycle. And we look forward to building on our successful track record of execution on behalf of all of our stakeholders.

雖然當前的天然氣宏觀環境確實存在挑戰，但它也闡明了 EQT 公司戰略的相對優勢，該戰略以大規模組合開發、專注於低成本資產的有紀律的併購、風險調整後的對沖策略和機會主義資本回報為基礎.這種獨特的公司形象為在商品週期的所有部分創造重要價值奠定了基礎。我們期待著代表所有利益相關者建立我們成功的執行記錄。

I'll now turn the call over to Dave.

我現在將電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Toby, and good morning, everyone. I'll briefly summarize our first quarter results before discussing our balance sheet, the macro landscape, hedging, 2023 guidance and use of our free cash flow.

謝謝，托比，大家早上好。在討論我們的資產負債表、宏觀環境、對沖、2023 年指引和我們自由現金流的使用之前，我將簡要總結我們第一季度的業績。

Sales volumes for the first quarter were 459 Bcfe or 2% above the midpoint of our guidance range. Our per unit adjusted operating revenues were $4.11 per Mcfe and our total per unit operating costs were $1.34, resulting in an operating margin of $2.70 per Mcfe.

第一季度的銷量為 459 Bcfe，比我們的指導範圍中點高出 2%。我們的每單位調整後營業收入為每 Mcfe 4.11 美元，每單位總營業成本為 1.34 美元，因此營業利潤為每 Mcfe 2.70 美元。

Capital expenditures, excluding noncontrolling interests, were $464 million or 7% below the midpoint of our guidance range as operational efficiencies exceeded expectations.

由於運營效率超出預期，資本支出（不包括非控股權益）為 4.64 億美元或低於我們指導範圍的中點 7%。

Adjusted operating cash flow and free cash flow were $1.24 billion and $774 million, respectively. We also had a $426 million working capital tailwind during the quarter, largely driven by declining accounts receivable from decreasing prices with a further tailwind expected in Q2 and Q3.

調整後的經營現金流和自由現金流分別為 12.4 億美元和 7.74 億美元。本季度我們還有 4.26 億美元的營運資金順風，這主要是由於價格下降導致應收賬款減少，預計第二季度和第三季度將進一步順風。

Our capital efficiency for the quarter came in at $1.01 per Mcfe, which was approximately 10% better than what was implied by the midpoint of our guidance ranges, driven by outperformance on both production and capital spending. Note that as we complete the excess TILLs that were shifted from last year, our second half capital efficiency should improve by double digits relative to the first half.

我們本季度的資本效率為每千克費 1.01 美元，比我們的指導範圍中點所暗示的高出約 10%，這是由於生產和資本支出均表現出色。請注意，隨著我們完成從去年轉移的多餘 TILL，我們下半年的資本效率應該比上半年提高兩位數。

Turning to the balance sheet. Our strong credit profile and ample liquidity remain a core tenet, underpinning our operating philosophy and will provide a differentiated value for opportunities for EQT moving forward. Our balance sheet position continued improving with trailing 12-month net leverage exiting the quarter at 0.9x, down from 1.2x last quarter and 1.9x a year ago.

轉向資產負債表。我們強大的信用狀況和充足的流動性仍然是我們的核心原則，支撐著我們的經營理念，並將為殷拓向前發展的機會提供差異化的價值。我們的資產負債表狀況繼續改善，過去 12 個月的淨槓桿率為 0.9 倍，低於上一季度的 1.2 倍和一年前的 1.9 倍。

We exited the first quarter with $3.3 billion of net debt and $2.1 billion of cash on hand, inclusive of the $1 billion in proceeds from our notes offering. This week, we extended our $1.25 billion term loan to the end of 2023, which aligns with the timing of the amended purchase agreement and provides timing flexibility.

我們在第一季度結束時擁有 33 億美元的淨債務和 21 億美元的手頭現金，其中包括 10 億美元的票據發行收益。本週，我們將 12.5 億美元的定期貸款延長至 2023 年底，這與修訂後的購買協議的時間一致，並提供了時間靈活性。

The bank term loan, along with our cash balance, gives us the flexibility and confidence to fund the cash portion of the Tug Hill deal independent of any bond proceeds that we raised last fall.

銀行定期貸款以及我們的現金餘額使我們能夠靈活和自信地為 Tug Hill 交易的現金部分提供資金，而無需考慮我們去年秋天籌集的任何債券收益。

As Toby mentioned, we continue to actively progress our debt retirement initiatives. We retired $210 million of senior notes principal in the first quarter primarily via open market purchases at an average price of 96% of par. Since unveiling our capital returns framework, we have retired more than $1.1 billion of debt principal, which has eliminated nearly $40 million of annual interest expense.

正如 Toby 提到的，我們將繼續積極推進我們的債務退休計劃。我們在第一季度主要通過公開市場以平均面值 96% 的價格購買 2.1 億美元的優先票據本金。自推出我們的資本回報框架以來，我們已經償還了超過 11 億美元的債務本金，從而消除了近 4000 萬美元的年度利息支出。

Our commitment to a bullet-proof balance sheet is being recognized by the credit rating agencies. S&P and Fitch reaffirmed our investment-grade credit ratings over the past several weeks, with stable outlooks at both agencies, even as natural gas prices have temporarily receded. As we further execute our objective of achieving $3.5 billion of gross debt pro forma for the pending Tug Hill acquisition, we believe additional credit rating upgrades are possible.

我們對防彈資產負債表的承諾正在得到信用評級機構的認可。標準普爾和惠譽在過去幾週重申了我們的投資級信用評級，兩家機構的前景穩定，即使天然氣價格暫時回落。隨著我們進一步執行我們的目標，即為未決的 Tug Hill 收購實現 35 億美元的備考總債務，我們相信額外的信用評級升級是可能的。

I'd like to also briefly highlight Slide 10 of our investor presentation, which shows our track record of materially growing our asset base while lowering our net debt. At year-end '19, our net debt was $5.3 billion. Our proved reserves were 17.5 Tcfe and our net production was 4.1 Bcfe per day.

我還想簡要強調一下我們投資者介紹的幻燈片 10，它顯示了我們在大幅增加資產基礎同時降低淨債務方面的記錄。 19 年底，我們的淨債務為 53 億美元。我們的探明儲量為 17.5 Tcfe，我們的淨產量為每天 4.1 Bcfe。

Fast forward to 2022. We increased our proved reserves to 25 Tcfe and our production to 5.3 Bcfe per day through the Chevron and Alta acquisitions and organic reserve growth, all while decreasing our net debt to $3.3 billion through the end of the first quarter.

快進到 2022 年。通過收購雪佛龍和阿爾塔以及有機儲量增長，我們將探明儲量增加到 25 Tcfe，將產量增加到每天 5.3 Bcfe，同時到第一季度末將我們的淨債務減少到 33 億美元。

Said another way, we have grown our asset base by 30% to 40% while simultaneously lowering our net debt by a comparable percentage over the 3 years and our plan for additional debt reduction post closing the Tug Hill acquisition should more acutely highlight this track record.

換句話說，我們的資產基礎增長了 30% 到 40%，同時在 3 年內將我們的淨債務降低了可比百分比，我們在完成 Tug Hill 收購後進一步削減債務的計劃應該會更加突出這一業績記錄.

Turning to a few brief thoughts on the gas macro landscape. The combination of warm winter weather and the Freeport outage left roughly 400 Bcf of excess natural gas in storage this winter. The market is in process of rationing this excess gas with the balancing items likely to be split between low production and increased gas-fired power demand.

轉向對天然氣宏觀格局的一些簡短思考。溫暖的冬季天氣和自由港停電相結合，導致今年冬天儲存了大約 400 Bcf 的過剩天然氣。市場正在對這種過剩天然氣進行配給，平衡項目可能會在低產量和增加的燃氣電力需求之間分配。

On the former, declines in gas directed activity has accelerated as of late with pricing falling well below many producer breakevens across the U.S., and we believe additional gas-directed activity declines in the coming months to moderate the pace of storage injections by roughly 200 Bcf.

就前者而言，天然氣導向活動的下降最近加速，價格遠低於美國各地許多生產商的盈虧平衡點，我們認為未來幾個月天然氣導向活動的進一步下降將使注入存儲的速度放緩約 200 Bcf .

As it relates to power generation, over 7,000 megawatts of U.S. coal generation is set to be retired in 2023 and we are seeing gas take further share from coal in the power stack to the tune of roughly 2 Bcf per day this year. With the average cost of coal rising materially in 2022, the coal to natural gas switching floor has increased by 50% or more and we believe this is a structural shift given the massive underinvestment in coal capacity.

就發電而言，超過 7,000 兆瓦的美國煤炭發電將於 2023 年退役，我們看到天然氣在發電堆中的份額進一步超過煤炭，今年達到每天約 2 Bcf。隨著 2022 年煤炭平均成本大幅上漲，煤改天然氣的底線增加了 50% 或更多，鑑於煤炭產能投資嚴重不足，我們認為這是一種結構性轉變。

There are several avenues of upside potential that could drive additional market timing above our current base case expectation, including higher sustained LNG exports, greater industrial demand, and reduced imports from Canada, given a tight Canadian storage market. We expect continued volatility in natural gas prices as gas and coal activity moderates and storage overall is an inadequate buffer relative to peak demand.

考慮到加拿大存儲市場吃緊，有幾種上行潛力的途徑可能會推動額外的市場時機超過我們目前的基本情況預期，包括持續增加的液化天然氣出口、更大的工業需求以及從加拿大的進口減少。我們預計天然氣價格將持續波動，因為天然氣和煤炭活動放緩，而且總體而言，相對於需求高峰而言，儲存空間不足以緩衝。

Moving to hedging. Our 2023 hedge book underscores our evolved hedging philosophy that seeks to provide investors with the best risk-adjusted exposure to natural gas prices. We have 62% of our 2023 production covered with floors at an average weighted price of $3.38 per MMBtu, which provides significant cash flow protection and downside pricing scenarios while maintaining upside exposure.

轉向對沖。我們的 2023 年對沖賬簿強調了我們不斷發展的對沖理念，該理念旨在為投資者提供最佳的風險調整後天然氣價格敞口。我們 2023 年生產的 62% 以平均加權價格 3.38 美元/百萬英熱單位覆蓋，這提供了重要的現金流保護和下行定價方案，同時保持上行風險。

We also have 10% of our '24 volumes hedged at a weighted average floor price of $4.20 per MMBtu and a weighted average ceiling of $5.40 per MMBtu. Given our expectation of improving natural gas macro fundamentals, as the year progresses, we will opportunistically look to add to our 2024 hedge position at the appropriate time.

我們還以每 MMBtu 4.20 美元的加權平均底價和每 MMBtu 5.40 美元的加權平均上限對沖了 24 年產量的 10%。鑑於我們對改善天然氣宏觀基本面的預期，隨著時間的推移，我們將機會主義地尋求在適當的時候增加我們 2024 年的對沖頭寸。

As it relates to basis, we are seeing a material benefit from our expanded firm transportation portfolio which was reflected in our first quarter differential coming in at a $0.16 premium to NYMEX as we captured favorable pricing spreads during the quarter. We continue to expect additional opportunities to expand our FT position as other Appalachian operators release existing firm transportation capacity.

就基差而言，我們看到我們擴大的公司運輸組合帶來了實質性好處，這反映在我們第一季度的差價比 NYMEX 高出 0.16 美元，因為我們在本季度獲得了有利的價差。隨著其他阿巴拉契亞運營商釋放現有的固定運輸能力，我們繼續期待更多機會擴大我們的 FT 地位。

As it relates to MVP, Slide 8 of our investor presentation illustrates the project's impact on EQT's cumulative free cash flow. While the benefit of MVP is interrelated with the spread between NYMEX and local Appalachian prices, the current future strips suggest MVP has an immaterial impact on our cumulative free cash flow as higher price realizations are largely offset by higher transportation expense.

由於與 MVP 相關，我們投資者介紹的幻燈片 8 說明了該項目對 EQT 累積自由現金流的影響。雖然 MVP 的好處與 NYMEX 和當地阿巴拉契亞價格之間的價差相互關聯，但當前的未來條帶錶明 MVP 對我們的累積自由現金流沒有實質性影響，因為更高的價格實現在很大程度上被更高的運輸費用所抵消。

That said, we continue to be staunch supporters of MVP as the project is necessary to ensure energy security for the Southeastern region of the United States while achieving its carbon-reduction goals via the phaseout of coal-fired generation. We were encouraged to see Energy Secretary Granholm's show of support for MVP and broader energy infrastructure this week with notable comments on how these projects will deliver dependable energy to Americans while supporting the reliability of the electric grid.

儘管如此，我們仍然是 MVP 的堅定支持者，因為該項目對於確保美國東南部地區的能源安全，同時通過逐步淘汰燃煤發電實現其碳減排目標是必要的。我們很高興看到能源部長格蘭霍姆本週對 MVP 和更廣泛的能源基礎設施表示支持，並對這些項目如何在支持電網可靠性的同時為美國人提供可靠的能源發表了重要評論。

For reference, our model assumes MVP starts up in the second half of 2024 and we will adjust assumptions if needed. Importantly, gathering rates contractually begin declining in 2025 independent of MVP's success, providing a further tailwind to free cash flow as margins widen by $0.15 from current levels, adding approximately $300 million of annual pretax free cash flow by 2028.

作為參考，我們的模型假設 MVP 在 2024 年下半年啟動，我們將在需要時調整假設。重要的是，無論 MVP 是否成功，合同規定的收款率在 2025 年開始下降，隨著利潤率從當前水平擴大 0.15 美元，為自由現金流提供了進一步的推動力，到 2028 年每年稅前自由現金流增加約 3 億美元。

Turning to guidance. We are reading our 2023 production outlook of 1.9 to 2 Tcfe. This range provides significant flexibility to respond to evolving macro conditions, with the low end of our production guidance of product's potential outcome of moderating activity should natural gas prices continue to decline.

轉向指導。我們正在閱讀 2023 年 1.9 至 2 Tcfe 的生產前景。這個範圍提供了很大的靈活性來應對不斷變化的宏觀條件，如果天然氣價格繼續下降，我們的產品生產指導的低端可能會導致活動放緩。

We are currently running 2 operating horizontal rigs and thus not contemplating reducing rig activity, but we have flexibility around our completion cadence as well as our choke management program.

我們目前正在運行 2 個運行中的水平鑽機，因此不考慮減少鑽機活動，但我們在完工節奏和節流管理計劃方面具有靈活性。

We are also reiterating our 2023 capital budget of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion, excluding the pending Tug Hill acquisition, which embeds 10% to 15% year-over-year oil field service inflation.

我們還重申我們 2023 年的資本預算為 17 億至 19 億美元，不包括待定的 Tug Hill 收購，該收購包含 10% 至 15% 的油田服務同比通脹。

As it relates to leading edge inflation trends, we are experiencing a flattening out of steel costs and starting to see long-haul logistics prices softening. We believe this is a signaling of some degree of price relief on local logistics such as sand and water hauling and could enable further completion efficiencies.

由於它與領先的通脹趨勢有關，我們正在經歷鋼鐵成本趨於平緩，並開始看到長途物流價格走軟。我們認為，這表明當地物流（例如沙子和水運）在一定程度上降低了價格，並可能進一步提高完工效率。

While still too early to predict with precision, we believe this backdrop could set up for some degree of net price relief for EQT by the fall and upside potential to our free cash flow outlook later in 2023 and into 2024. As a reminder, $100-plus million of our budget is associated with turning in line wells that slipped from 2022 into 2023 due to third-party constraints and thus is not anticipated to carry forward into future periods.

雖然現在準確預測還為時過早，但我們認為這種背景可能會在 2023 年晚些時候和 2024 年自由現金流前景的下跌和上漲潛力下為殷拓帶來一定程度的淨價格緩解。提醒一下，100-再加上我們的預算中有 100 萬美元與由於第三方限製而從 2022 年滑落到 2023 年的在線井轉彎有關，因此預計不會結轉至未來時期。

This dynamic, along with the shallowing of our base PDP decline is anticipated to drive 5% to 10% improvement in our capital efficiency in 2024 and beyond, independent of any oil field service cost relief.

這種動態，加上我們基本 PDP 下降的變淺，預計將在 2024 年及以後推動我們的資本效率提高 5% 至 10%，這與任何油田服務成本減免無關。

Our per unit operating expense range is 2% per Mcfe lower at the midpoint driven by lower production taxes and G&A. We're also lowering the range of our average differential forecast for the year to negative $0.35 to negative $0.60 per Mcfe, driven by narrowing local basis and the benefits from our firm transportation portfolio.

由於較低的生產稅和 G&A，我們的單位運營費用範圍是中點降低 2%/Mcfe。我們還將今年的平均差異預測範圍下調至負 0.35 美元至負 0.60 美元/Mcfe，這是由於本地基差收窄以及我們公司運輸組合帶來的好處。

On Slide 32 of our investor deck, we provide adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow and free cash flow outlooks at various natural gas prices for the remainder of 2023. At recent strip pricing, 2023 adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $2.9 billion and 2023 free cash flow is anticipated to be roughly $1 billion implying a free cash flow yield of 9% at the bottom part of the cycle.

在我們投資者平台的幻燈片 32 上，我們提供了 2023 年剩餘時間內各種天然氣價格的調整後 EBITDA、經營現金流和自由現金流前景。根據最近的剝離定價，2023 年調整後的 EBITDA 預計約為 29 億美元，2023 年免費預計現金流量約為 10 億美元，這意味著在周期底部的自由現金流量收益率為 9%。

As it relates to cash taxes, we continue to expect our remaining federal NOLs to offset the bulk of our 2023 taxes. Our 2024 cash tax rate would be approximately 5% to 7% of operating income or $120 million to $170 million at current strip pricing, increasing to the low 20% range in 2025 and beyond, which is fully captured in our cumulative free cash flow outlook.

由於它與現金稅有關，我們繼續期望我們剩餘的聯邦 NOL 能夠抵消我們 2023 年的大部分稅收。我們的 2024 年現金稅率將約為營業收入的 5% 至 7%，或按當前剝離價格計算為 1.2 億至 1.7 億美元，並在 2025 年及以後增加至 20% 的低範圍，這在我們的累積自由現金流展望中得到了充分體現.

Turning to capital allocation. We repurchased almost 6 million shares during the first quarter and have retired a total of more than 20 million shares under our buyback authorization at an average price of roughly $30 per share. Our buyback strategy is opportunistic in nature as we seek to maximize the return generated for investors, and we are pleased with our execution to date as we have generated the best buyback return among the gas peer group.

轉向資本配置。我們在第一季度回購了近 600 萬股股票，並根據我們的回購授權以每股約 30 美元的平均價格回購了總計超過 2000 萬股股票。我們的回購策略本質上是機會主義的，因為我們尋求最大化為投資者產生的回報，我們對迄今為止的執行感到滿意，因為我們在天然氣同行組中產生了最好的回購回報。

We've also retired $210 million of debt principal during the quarter at an average price of 96% of par, taking our total debt principal retired to $1.1 billion since initiating our capital return framework. This focus on debt retirement has driven our net leverage down a full turn over the past year, highlighting our commitment to a bulletproof balance sheet.

我們還在本季度以平均面值 96% 的價格償還了 2.1 億美元的債務本金，使我們自啟動資本回報框架以來償還的債務本金總額達到 11 億美元。這種對債務退休的關注使我們的淨槓桿率在過去一年中下降了整整一倍，突顯了我們對防彈資產負債表的承諾。

Looking ahead, our cash position affords us tremendous flexibility as it relates to financing the cash portion of the pending Tug Hill acquisition. As we work constructively with the FTC and approach deal closing, we plan to maintain cash on hand to effectively prefund a portion of our expected debt paydown post deal close.

展望未來，我們的現金狀況為我們提供了巨大的靈活性，因為它涉及為未決的 Tug Hill 收購的現金部分融資。在我們與 FTC 進行建設性合作並接近交易完成時，我們計劃保留手頭現金，以便在交易完成後有效地預先為我們預期的債務償還部分提供資金。

We will also look for opportunities to buy back additional stock post deal close, especially in light of the value accretion and the cost structure improvements that Tug Hill and XcL assets will bring to EQT.

我們還將尋找機會在交易完成後回購更多股票，特別是考慮到 Tug Hill 和 XcL 資產將為殷拓帶來的價值增值和成本結構改善。

As Toby mentioned, we see greater than $12 billion of cumulative free cash flow from 2023 through 2027 at today's lower strip even before factoring the benefits of the pending Tug Hill acquisition, leaving us with plenty of firepower to fully achieve and exceed our debt retirement goal and our equity buyback authorization.

正如 Toby 所提到的，我們預計從 2023 年到 2027 年，今天較低地帶的累計自由現金流量將超過 120 億美元，甚至在考慮即將進行的 Tug Hill 收購的好處之前，這使我們有足夠的火力來完全實現並超過我們的債務退休目標以及我們的股權回購授權。

I'll now turn the call back over to Toby for some concluding remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給托比，聽取一些總結性意見。

Thanks, Dave. To conclude today's prepared remarks, I want to reiterate a few key points: One, first quarter results were robust across the board at EQT, underscored by strong operational efficiencies, lower-than-expected capital spending and higher price realizations from our advantaged firm transportation portfolio; two, the solid performance facilitated $774 million of free cash flow, underscoring our cash generation potential even in a lower natural gas price environment; three, we've built upon our track record of thoughtful opportunistic capital returns during the quarter with nearly $550 million of returns via share repurchases, debt retirement and our base dividend; four, our commitment to a bulletproof balance sheet is evident as net debt declined by roughly $900 million during the quarter, and we exited Q1 with over $2.1 billion of cash on hand; and finally, the current natural gas macro environment is giving us even greater confidence in our differentiated corporate strategy underpinned by efficient large-scale combo development, a disciplined M&A focus on low-cost assets, a risk-adjusted hedging strategy and opportunistic capital returns.

謝謝，戴夫。在結束今天準備好的發言時，我想重申幾個要點：第一，EQT 第一季度的業績全面強勁，突出表現在強大的運營效率、低於預期的資本支出以及我們優勢公司運輸的更高價格實現文件夾;第二，穩健的業績促進了 7.74 億美元的自由現金流，即使在天然氣價格較低的環境下，也凸顯了我們的現金產生潛力；第三，我們在本季度深思熟慮的機會主義資本回報記錄的基礎上，通過股票回購、債務償還和基本股息獲得了近 5.5 億美元的回報；第四，我們對防彈資產負債表的承諾是顯而易見的，因為本季度淨債務減少了大約 9 億美元，我們在第一季度結束時手頭現金超過 21 億美元；最後，當前的天然氣宏觀環境使我們對我們的差異化企業戰略更有信心，該戰略以高效的大規模組合開發、專注於低成本資產的有紀律的併購、風險調整後的對沖策略和機會主義資本回報為基礎。

I'd now like to open the call to questions.

我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Arun Jayaram。

My first question regards the differential guide. You guys reduced your full year differential guide relative to the 4Q press release by about $0.15 per Mcfe, which obviously is nearly a $300 million tailwind to cash flow. So I was wondering if you could talk about what actions you've taken to support the lower or the narrower differentials. We did see that you have a little bit more takeaway to the Midwest and Gulf Coast. And maybe help us think about how much of that lower differential is related to the FT versus maybe some basis hedges that you've set up? And what is the potential impact beyond this year as we think about longer-term differentials for EQT?

我的第一個問題是關於差分指南。相對於第 4 季度新聞稿，你們將全年差價指南降低了約 0.15 美元/Mcfe，這顯然是近 3 億美元的現金流順風。所以我想知道你是否可以談談你採取了哪些行動來支持更低或更窄的差異。我們確實看到您對中西部和墨西哥灣沿岸有更多的了解。也許可以幫助我們考慮一下，較低的差異有多少與英國《金融時報》相關，而與您建立的一些基差對沖相關？當我們考慮 EQT 的長期差異時，今年以後的潛在影響是什麼？

Yes. So it's a great question, Arun. So we've added about 500 Bcf -- I'm sorry, $500 million a day of FT capacity over the last 18 months, mostly to the Midwest and some to the Gulf Coast. These are definitely higher value regions that give us exposure to improve the realization. So -- and we continue to expect to add more this year and make that better. So that was definitely a piece of it.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，Arun。所以我們增加了大約 500 Bcf——對不起，在過去的 18 個月裡，每天 5 億美元的 FT 容量，主要是在中西部和墨西哥灣沿岸。這些絕對是更高價值的區域，可以讓我們接觸到提高實現。所以 - 我們繼續期望今年增加更多並做得更好。所以那絕對是其中的一部分。

The other piece of it was our hedging strategy and how we hedge certain areas and leave certain areas open. M3 was a very strong region for us this quarter. As a nuclear facility in New York went offline, we're seeing higher and higher values up in that M3 area as winter shows up. So winter is a very positive M3 area.

另一部分是我們的對沖策略以及我們如何對沖某些領域並讓某些領域開放。本季度 M3 對我們來說是一個非常強大的區域。隨著紐約的一座核設施停運，隨著冬季的到來，我們看到 M3 區域的價值越來越高。所以冬天是一個非常積極的 M3 區域。

And then like the third piece is, as natural gas NYMEX prices come down, our local basis narrows as with the correlation is about 80% to 85%. So NYMEX goes up, our basis widens. NYMEX comes down, our basis narrows. So those are the 3 impacts of which I'd say the first 2 are probably long-lasting, and will improve -- keep doing it. And the last one is going to be obviously subject to what NYMEX prices do.

然後就像第三部分一樣，隨著天然氣 NYMEX 價格下跌，我們的本地基差收窄，相關性約為 80% 至 85%。所以 NYMEX 上漲，我們的基礎擴大。 NYMEX 下跌，我們的基差收窄。因此，我想說的是這 3 種影響，其中前 2 種可能會持續很長時間，並且會有所改善——繼續這樣做。最後一個顯然會受到 NYMEX 價格的影響。

Great. And my follow-up is for Toby. Toby, it's been just a little bit over a year. I think you announced your unleash LNG initiative at CERAWeek last year. But I was wondering if you could maybe talk about some of the wins that you think you've had, maybe some of the things that haven't developed as quickly as you'd like. I mean, we do note that we do have now 10 Bcf a day or so of projects, which have been FID-ed. So there is going to be a lot more demand for feed gas for LNG. But I wonder if you could give us a sense, after a year, some of your thoughts on just the overall initiative.

偉大的。我的後續行動是針對托比的。托比，才一年多一點。我想你去年在 CERAWeek 上宣布了釋放液化天然氣的倡議。但我想知道你是否可以談談你認為你已經取得的一些勝利，也許是一些沒有像你希望的那樣迅速發展的事情。我的意思是，我們確實注意到我們現在每天大約有 10 Bcf 的項目，這些項目已經過 FID。因此，對液化天然氣原料氣的需求將大大增加。但我想知道在一年之後，您是否可以告訴我們您對整體倡議的一些想法。

Yes, Arun. Let's look at where people's heads are at around the world when they're thinking about energy. I think there's a couple of classes where people's heads are at. We've got some people that still have their heads in the sand, thinking that just focusing on the United States and fixing emissions here is going to somehow solve the global emissions issue that they're concerned about. They need to pick their head up. We've got other people that have their heads in the clouds and thinking that some of these solutions that are being proposed defy physics and are only addressing 1 part of the energy ecosystem, and they may be a little bit too optimistic.

是的，阿倫。讓我們看看世界各地的人們在考慮能源時的腦袋在哪裡。我認為人們的頭腦集中在幾個班級。我們有一些人仍然把頭埋在沙子裡，認為只關注美國並解決這裡的排放問題就能以某種方式解決他們關心的全球排放問題。他們需要抬起頭來。我們還有一些人頭腦發熱，他們認為提出的一些解決方案違背了物理學，並且只解決了能源生態系統的一部分，他們可能有點過於樂觀了。

What we need is people to have a level head, talking about deploying proven, scalable, truly sustainable solutions like unleash U.S. LNG that will have the biggest impact on lowering global emissions, that will have the biggest impact on providing more energy security to the world.

我們需要的是人們有一個冷靜的頭腦，談論部署經過驗證的、可擴展的、真正可持續的解決方案，比如釋放美國液化天然氣，這將對降低全球排放產生最大影響，這將對為世界提供更多能源安全產生最大影響.

Now I'm excited about where the world has moved. We've moved away from a world that is a sum-of-the-above approach towards energy, only solar, only wind. We've seen that strategy play out in Europe and the world has taken notice that, that may not be the best solution, and it may not be capable solution. So the world has moved back towards a more realistic and more practical approach in all-of-the-above approach towards energy. That's where unleash U.S. LNG sits.

現在我對世界發生的變化感到興奮。我們已經擺脫了一個只有太陽能和風能的能源世界。我們已經看到該戰略在歐洲發揮作用，全世界都注意到，這可能不是最好的解決方案，也可能不是可行的解決方案。因此，在上述所有能源方法中，世界已經轉向更現實、更實用的方法。這就是釋放美國液化天然氣的地方。

But if we want to meet the environmental ambitions and the time line needed to get there, if we want to accelerate pulling the 3 billion people around the world that live in energy poverty, if we want to protect the 60% of Americans who live paycheck to paycheck, we need to move from an all-of-the-above approach to energy to a best-of-the-above approach towards energy. And while the world certainly, I think isn't capable right now on determining what is the best source of energy, one of the things that we're excited about over the last year is we've been successful in defining the criteria at which energy will be graded upon. And those criteria are cheap, reliable and clean. And one of the -- that seems to be universally accepted as the 3 main criteria. And we're seeing actions with the administration, Secretary Granholm supporting pipelines, supporting MVP and in the closing paragraph of her letter says that energy needs to be affordable, reliable and clean.

但是，如果我們想要實現環境目標和實現目標所需的時間表，如果我們想要加速拉動全球 30 億生活在能源貧困中的人，如果我們想要保護 60% 靠薪水生活的美國人為了支付薪水，我們需要從上述所有的能源方法轉變為上述最佳的能源方法。雖然我認為世界現在肯定無法確定什麼是最好的能源，但我們在過去一年中感到興奮的事情之一是我們已經成功地定義了標準能量將被分級。這些標準是便宜、可靠和乾淨的。其中之一似乎被普遍接受為 3 個主要標準。我們看到政府採取行動，格蘭霍姆部長支持管道，支持 MVP，並在她信的最後一段中表示，能源需要負擔得起、可靠和清潔。

So we are very excited about the progress we've made. There's still a lot of work left to do. I think permit reform is inevitable. Our energy ecosystem is maxed out. Pipelines are full. Refineries are running at maximum capacity. And without that extra flexibility, we are at risk of a major event to throw us back into another energy crisis. That event can be weather. We see utilities in New England writing letters to the President saying that they're concerned if they experience a mild -- a cold winter, how they will deal with that. It could be a cyber event. We saw what happened with Colonial Pipeline. It could be another geopolitical event.

所以我們對我們取得的進展感到非常興奮。還有很多工作要做。我認為許可證改革是不可避免的。我們的能源生態系統已經用完了。管道已滿。煉油廠正在以最大產能運行。如果沒有這種額外的靈活性，我們就有可能發生重大事件，使我們重新陷入另一場能源危機。該事件可以是天氣。我們看到新英格蘭的公用事業公司寫信給總統說他們擔心如果他們經歷一個溫和的 - 寒冷的冬天，他們將如何應對。這可能是一個網絡事件。我們看到了 Colonial Pipeline 發生的事情。這可能是另一個地緣政治事件。

It's not -- in my opinion, it's not if one of these events happens, it's when. And we need to build up our industrial energy capacity so that we can deal with these events when they take place. And that's 1 of the reasons why we believe permit reform is inevitable. I think people understand where we're at and what we need to do, and we're excited about helping lead the conversation going forward.

這不是——在我看來，這不是其中一個事件是否發生，而是何時發生。我們需要建立我們的工業能源能力，以便我們能夠在這些事件發生時對其進行處理。這就是我們認為許可改革不可避免的原因之一。我認為人們了解我們所處的位置以及我們需要做什麼，我們很高興能夠幫助引導對話向前發展。

The next question comes from Umang Choudhary from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

My first question was on the -- on your plans. On the outlook, I mean, you -- appreciate your thoughts around the natural gas macro outlook. I was wondering if you can give any color in terms of like what levels would you look to adjust your completion activity. And any color you can provide on your choke management plans?

我的第一個問題是關於您的計劃。關於前景，我的意思是，你——欣賞你對天然氣宏觀前景的看法。我想知道你是否可以給出任何顏色，比如你希望調整完成活動的級別。您可以在扼流圈管理計劃中提供任何顏色嗎？

So we'll continue to measure the current commodity price. I think the default plan for EQT is to continue a steady pace operationally even given what we see in the commodity outlook. We have the luxury of keeping a steadier plan because of the fact that we are the low-cost operator. And so we'll be able to capture some of the efficiencies that come along with that steady activity plan.

因此，我們將繼續衡量當前的商品價格。我認為 EQT 的默認計劃是在運營上繼續保持穩定的步伐，即使考慮到我們在商品前景中看到的情況。由於我們是低成本運營商，因此我們有幸保持更穩定的計劃。因此，我們將能夠獲得伴隨該穩定活動計劃而來的一些效率。

As far as production is concerned, if we see local prices get below the cost it takes for us to produce, then you're going to see us curtail volumes. So that will be a game time decision and we'll watch how the setup continues to evolve and operate our business accordingly.

就生產而言，如果我們看到當地價格低於我們生產所需的成本，那麼您將看到我們減少產量。所以這將是一個遊戲時間的決定，我們將觀察設置如何繼續發展並相應地運營我們的業務。

Yes. And I'd just add, due to the water line issue last year, our production has not -- is below maintenance level normally by, we'll call it, 2% to 3% already. So we've actually contributed, I would say, our share a little bit of the reduction in gas to help balance the market as well.

是的。我只想補充一點，由於去年的水管問題，我們的產量沒有 - 通常低於維護水平，我們稱之為 2% 到 3%。因此，我想說，我們實際上已經貢獻了一點天然氣減少的份額，以幫助平衡市場。

Got you. That make sense. And then I guess, more for a longer-term question. As you highlighted in Slide 29, we are probably going to be in a volatile gas price environment going forward given you have not built up our gas storage capacity here in the U.S., even as demand has grown. Would love to revisit your thoughts around the optimal long-term leverage and also on your hedging levels, acknowledging that obviously, your free cash flow breakeven is low, and it's probably going to even reduce going forward.

明白了有道理。然後我想，更多的是針對一個長期問題。正如您在幻燈片 29 中強調的那樣，鑑於您尚未在美國這裡建立我們的天然氣儲存能力，即使需求已經增長，我們可能仍將處於一個不穩定的天然氣價格環境中。很想重新審視您對最佳長期槓桿以及對沖水平的想法，顯然，您的自由現金流盈虧平衡點很低，而且未來甚至可能會減少。

Yes, it's a great question because you're right, with lack of coal-fired generation as baseload, with some nuclear coming offline and then replacing it with gas and renewables, you're going to have more and more volatility going forward. And so as a producer, how do you handle that? One, you have to have a very, very strong balance sheet. So having investment grade, having 1x leverage. Maybe over time, we'll build up cash as well. So our net leverage might even below that 1x.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，因為你是對的，由於缺乏燃煤發電作為基本負荷，一些核能停產，然後用天然氣和可再生能源取而代之，未來的波動性將越來越大。那麼作為製作人，你是如何處理的呢？第一，你必須擁有非常非常強大的資產負債表。因此具有投資級別，具有 1 倍槓桿。也許隨著時間的推移，我們也會積累現金。所以我們的淨槓桿率甚至可能低於 1 倍。

The second is you have to have the low-cost structure, right? So if you notice, we've taken our cost structure down from, we'll call it, [285] to [290] down into the [220s] right, over time. So very important to be a low-cost producer in a commodity business.

第二是你必須有低成本的結構，對吧？因此，如果您注意到，隨著時間的推移，我們已經將我們的成本結構從 [285] 降低到 [290] 到 [220s]。成為大宗商品行業的低成本生產商非常重要。

And then third is we're using our hedging strategy with collars. If we do something on the LNG front, we'll do stuff with collars. So we'll try to manage that volatility. And so I think that's the 3 ways we'll do it.

第三是我們正在使用我們的套期保值策略。如果我們在液化天然氣方面做點什麼，我們會做一些有領子的事情。因此，我們將嘗試管理這種波動。所以我認為這就是我們要做的 3 種方式。

And I'd say the fourth way is probably also to have very low to no emissions because that means the end-market demand will stay very strong for your product on a relative basis.

我想說的第四種方式可能也是排放量非常低甚至沒有，因為這意味著相對而言，終端市場對您的產品的需求將保持非常強勁。

The next question comes from John Abbott from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Abbott。

Apologies for the sirens in the background here. It sounds like something is going on. Our first question is related again to the Tug Hill and XcL Midstream acquisition. It looks like you're still suggesting those are going to close around midyear. It sounds at that time, we'll have potentially some sort of update to guidance. Just sort of thinking about that, could you remind us what is included in the $80-plus million of synergies that you had initially suggested? And at this point in time, where do you see potential upside versus that?

為背景中的警報器道歉。聽起來好像有什麼事情要發生。我們的第一個問題再次與 Tug Hill 和 XcL Midstream 的收購有關。看起來你仍然在暗示那些將在年中左右關閉。那時聽起來，我們可能會對指南進行某種更新。只是想一想，您能否提醒我們您最初建議的 80 多萬美元的協同效應包括什麼？在這個時間點，你認為潛在的上行空間在哪裡？

Sure. So the $80 million in synergies that we identified primarily came from some midstream synergies, connecting our -- building some pipelines that would connect our asset base from Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Another synergy that's fairly large is connecting our water systems. So there will be a synergy there.

當然。因此，我們確定的 8000 萬美元的協同效應主要來自一些中游協同效應，連接我們——建設一些管道，這些管道將連接我們來自俄亥俄州、西弗吉尼亞州和賓夕法尼亞州的資產基礎。另一個相當大的協同作用是連接我們的供水系統。所以那裡會有協同作用。

I'd say all these things, when we look at the synergies, we tried to be really practical in outlining what those are. Those will be additive to the accretion numbers that we put out. And given the fact that these are largely infrastructure related, they're typically lower risk in nature.

我會說所有這些事情，當我們審視協同效應時，我們試圖在概述這些協同效應時真正實用。這些將添加到我們提出的吸積數字中。考慮到這些主要與基礎設施相關，它們在本質上通常風險較低。

Some of the upsides that we look at, we have a track record of improving operations on the assets that we ultimately inherit. Our drilling team is a really great example. Look at the drilling performance that we -- the uplift we've seen in performance on the Alta acquisition. We do think there is an opportunity for us to repeat that. We've got a very strong drilling team. So those will be some of the upsides to that.

我們看到的一些好處是，我們有改善我們最終繼承的資產運營的記錄。我們的鑽井隊就是一個很好的例子。看看我們的鑽井性能——我們在 Alta 收購中看到的性能提升。我們確實認為我們有機會重複這一點。我們有一支非常強大的鑽井隊。所以這些將是一些好處。

And when we look at that $80 million of synergies, how does that compare to the $0.15 that the Tog Hill transaction will impact it. By lowering our free cash flow breakevens, these $80 million would be an additional $0.04 on top of that $0.15, just shows you the impact of adding this asset under our belt will be very impactful in lowering our costs.

當我們審視這 8000 萬美元的協同效應時，與 Tog Hill 交易將對其產生影響的 0.15 美元相比有何不同。通過降低我們的自由現金流盈虧平衡點，這 8000 萬美元將在 0.15 美元的基礎上額外增加 0.04 美元，這只是向您展示了在我們的腰帶下增加這項資產的影響將對降低我們的成本產生非常大的影響。

So just to be clear, does combo development factor into those synergies?

所以要明確一點，組合開發是否會影響這些協同作用？

Combo development does factor into the synergies. The dual development also will take place. I'd say the only other logistical impact that will present itself is the frac activity that's taking place on the Tug Hill assets will become another location for our water team to use for recycling. And water recycling is a big needle mover on efficiency gains. Our water recycling team is -- our water recycling rates have gone from 80% to over 90%, and we're going to continue to focus on increasing our water recycle rates and the Tug Hill assets will give us a little bit more flexibility on how to achieve that.

組合開發確實會影響協同效應。雙重發展也將發生。我想說的是，唯一會出現的其他後勤影響是 Tug Hill 資產上正在進行的壓裂活動將成為我們的水團隊用於回收的另一個地點。水循環是提高效率的一大推動因素。我們的水回收團隊是——我們的水回收率已經從 80% 上升到 90% 以上，我們將繼續專注於提高我們的水回收率，而 Tug Hill 資產將使我們在如何做到這一點。

Appreciate it. And then I want to go back to Arun's earlier question on differentials. So Dave, it sounds -- as you said, you've had about $500 million of FT over the last 18 months. How do you describe the opportunity set sort of going forward to improve on realizations going forward at this point? What is -- how do you think about available FT coming up? What is the opportunity set there for you to improve realizations at this point?

欣賞它。然後我想回到 Arun 之前關於差異的問題。所以戴夫，聽起來——正如你所說，在過去的 18 個月裡，你擁有大約 5 億美元的 FT。你如何描述在這一點上改進未來實現的機會集？什麼是——您如何看待即將到來的可用 FT？在這一點上，有什麼機會可以讓你提高認識？

Yes. So I would just say there are other producers in the basin that are letting FT go. And so as that comes available, we'll pick it off. I don't want to get too specific because, obviously, we want to execute on first and then we'll talk about it. But there -- I'd just say there are pieces out there over time that we will pick up and continue to grow that number. And I'd just say as producers have less and less inventory in the basin, those opportunities just grow.

是的。所以我只想說流域中還有其他生產商正在放手 FT。因此，當它可用時，我們將把它取下來。我不想說得太具體，因為很明顯，我們想先執行，然後再討論。但是那裡 - 我只是說隨著時間的推移，我們會收集並繼續增加這個數字。我只想說，隨著生產商在盆地的庫存越來越少，這些機會只會增加。

The next question comes from David Deckelbaum from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 David Deckelbaum。

Perhaps I just want to go back on a couple of points that you had already made. But if you could provide any color of what your expectation is in terms of crews and rigs perhaps leaving Appalachia, if you give us a sense of magnitude and timing when we might expect to see some incremental softening around the service side as you think about getting into the back half of '23 here?

也許我只是想反駁你已經提出的幾點。但是，如果你能提供你對可能離開阿巴拉契亞的船員和鑽井平台的期望的任何顏色，如果你給我們一個規模和時間的感覺，我們可能會在你考慮得到時看到服務方面的一些逐漸軟化進入 23 年的後半段？

Sure. Just to level set what we've seen, we've seen a 10% reduction in rigs that were focused on gas. It's about 17 rigs have come off. We expect that trend to continue down and we're also looking at some of the commentary. The big focus really needs to be on the completion activity. And from the earnings with Halliburton next year, Liberty, they are signaling that they're seeing a mobilization of frac crews moving away from gas towards oil. So that will be something else that we're looking at throughout the course of the year in addition to the rig reductions.

當然。只是為了保持我們所看到的水平，我們看到專注於天然氣的鑽井平台減少了 10%。大約有 17 個鑽井平台已經關閉。我們預計這一趨勢將繼續下降，我們也在關註一些評論。重點確實需要放在完成活動上。從 Halliburton 明年 Liberty 的收益來看，他們發出信號表明，他們正在動員壓裂人員從天然氣轉向石油。因此，除了減少鑽井平台外，這將是我們全年都在關注的其他事情。

Yes. And I'd just say…

是的。我只想說……

I appreciate that. Yes.

我很感激。是的。

Yes. I'd say logistics items like sand, hauling, steel, those are things that we're looking at probably in the second half of the year to probably soften and -- but we obviously didn't put that into our numbers because we need to see it happen before we'd make that move.

是的。我會說像沙子、拖運、鋼鐵這樣的物流項目，這些是我們可能在今年下半年看到的可能會軟化的東西——但我們顯然沒有把它放在我們的數字中，因為我們需要在我們採取行動之前看到它發生。

You brought up, I think, if there are some ongoing headwinds here before we get to a lot of the LNG egress that comes on in '24. And obviously, the coal retirements, looking for some displaced gas there. How do you think about managing a like short-term curtailment profile? And you highlight at a corporate level now your free cash breakevens this year above [65] with the benefit of the hedge book. Do you think about curtailing things at a corporate level? Or is this still calculated at a field level of sort of an individual area or a pad basis?

我想，你提出來，如果我們在 24 年出現大量液化天然氣出口之前，這裡是否存在一些持續的逆風。顯然，煤炭退役，在那裡尋找一些替代的天然氣。您如何看待管理類似的短期削減配置文件？你現在在公司層面強調你今年的自由現金盈虧平衡點高於 [65]，這得益於對沖賬簿的好處。您是否考慮在公司層面上削減開支？或者這仍然是在單個區域或墊基礎的現場級別計算的？

Yes. We look at it at a field level. We look at it both, but we -- and we curtail things, I'd say, at moments in time. We don't really talk about it much. So there might be a weekend here, a weekend there, but when we want to do like a broader, larger, then we'll look at the overall rates of return. We'll look at the forward curve. And make a decision about are we -- can we create value by moving gas into the future as opposed to keeping it producing today.

是的。我們從實地層面來看。我們同時考慮這兩個問題，但我們——我會說，我們會及時減少一些事情。我們並沒有真正談論它。所以這裡可能有一個週末，那裡有一個週末，但是當我們想做更廣泛、更大的事情時，我們就會看看整體回報率。我們將看看遠期曲線。並決定我們是否可以通過將天然氣轉移到未來而不是今天繼續生產來創造價值。

So you know we've shut in production in 2020 a couple times, but we also shut in production in '21 that we didn't really talk much about. Those are shorter term in nature. So we'll do it both field and corporate.

所以你知道我們已經在 2020 年停產了幾次，但我們也在 21 年停產了，我們並沒有真正談論太多。這些本質上是短期的。因此，我們將在現場和企業中都這樣做。

I appreciate that, David. And if I could just ask a little bit more on just Umang's question earlier around the hedge book. The curve for '24 is kind of sitting in and around the area where you guys had hedged out for '23. You don't have much hedge volumes in '24 now. I guess how do you think about that dynamic just given the fact that your realizations could look pretty attractive if you hedged out '24 at this point? Is that more sort of a commentary or reflection on your confidence in hitting deleveraging goals this year and requiring less of a hedge profile next year? Or is that more of taking this wait and see into what ultimately might be a volatile spike for the '24 curve?

我很感激，大衛。如果我能就 Umang 早些時候關於對沖賬簿的問題多問一點。 '24 的曲線有點位於你們為'23 對沖的區域及其周圍。現在 24 年你沒有太多的對沖量。我猜你如何看待這種動態，因為如果你在這一點上對沖 24 年，你的實現可能看起來非常有吸引力？這更多是對您今年實現去槓桿化目標和明年減少對沖配置的信心的評論或反思嗎？或者更多的是等待，看看最終可能是 24 年曲線的波動尖峰？

Well, when we hedge and we use collars, okay, we like to see SKU in the -- when we do that. And so the best times to add collars is when you have an upper movement in gas. If we wanted to do swaps, which we could do and lock in some of this and protect some of the 2024 picture.

好吧，當我們對沖並使用項圈時，好吧，我們喜歡在 - 當我們這樣做時看到 SKU。因此，添加項圈的最佳時間是當你的氣向上運動時。如果我們想進行交換，我們可以這樣做並鎖定其中的一些並保護 2024 年的一些畫面。

But what we're also seeing is we're seeing activity slowing on the gas side. We're seeing activity starting to slow on the coal side, and we're heading into the summer months here, which is a catalyst. And we're also seeing some incremental LNG come on in the first quarter of next year with Golden Pass. So I think the worries about storage levels getting to 4 Tcf or 4.1 TCF, one, we don't think it's going to get there. I think you're going to see it come in short of that. And then the second is, if you think about storage, even at 4 Tcf, that's basically 30 days of cover which, if you understand the commodity business, as I know you do, you really need 60 days to really provide any buffer in a peak demand period. So we see if you get normal winter, you could see spike in gas and you really need about 400 Bcf of incremental storage in 2024 to be able to support that incremental LNG that's coming online in '24. So I think we're seeing a very positive setup here.

但我們還看到，天然氣方面的活動正在放緩。我們看到煤炭方面的活動開始放緩，我們正在進入夏季，這是一個催化劑。我們還看到明年第一季度隨著 Golden Pass 出現一些增量液化天然氣。所以我認為對存儲水平達到 4 Tcf 或 4.1 TCF 的擔憂，第一，我們認為它不會實現。我想你會看到它還不夠。然後第二個是，如果你考慮存儲，即使是 4 Tcf，也基本上是 30 天的保障，如果你了解商品業務，正如我所知，你真的需要 60 天才能真正提供任何緩衝需求高峰期。所以我們看看你是否能過正常的冬天，你會看到天然氣飆升，你真的需要在 2024 年增加大約 400 Bcf 的增量存儲才能支持 24 年上線的增量 LNG。所以我認為我們在這裡看到了一個非常積極的設置。

The big negative could be if summer doesn't show up and winter doesn't show up. And that's why we like to hedge is to manage those risks. So we're going to try to figure out the right time to jump in and add those hedges and try to derisk it. But we see a lot of moving parts, both positive and negative and trying to make sure that we get from a timing perspective and how we hedge right.

最大的負面影響可能是如果夏天沒有出現，冬天也沒有出現。這就是為什麼我們喜歡對沖是為了管理這些風險。因此，我們將嘗試找出合適的時間進入並添加這些對沖並嘗試降低風險。但我們看到了很多變動的部分，包括積極的和消極的，並試圖確保我們從時間的角度以及我們如何正確對沖。

The next question comes from Bertrand Donnes from Truist.

下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Bertrand Donnes。

You touched on this briefly, but could you talk about your current volumes that are able to get down to the Gulf Coast? I see the 28% you have on Slide 20. But I wasn't sure if some of that was financial exposure and maybe not actual volumes. And then maybe how you're thinking about your options to increase takeaway specifically to the Gulf Coast? Are you looking to do something similar to that 200 million you picked up last year? Or are there -- are you comfortable with your mix? Or are you looking at M&A or midstream partnerships?

你簡要地談到了這一點，但你能談談你目前能夠到達墨西哥灣沿岸的數量嗎？我在幻燈片 20 上看到了 28%。但我不確定其中一些是否是財務風險，也許不是實際數量。然後，也許您如何考慮增加專門到墨西哥灣沿岸的外賣的選擇？你是否想做一些類似於去年獲得的 2 億的事情？或者有——你對自己的混音感到滿意嗎？或者您正在考慮併購或中游合作夥伴關係？

Yes. So the volumes down to the Gulf, that's all physical. That's not financial. And so -- and we are looking to add more over time, and there is more pieces that will come up over time. It's very episodic, as you can imagine. So we will look to continue to grow the FT position to all the higher-valued areas, including the Gulf. And I think it's important to note that as you see a lot of volume growth down in that area, it's important to have, hedging will play more of a role in the Gulf Coast as Haynesville tries to grow and Permian tries to grow. So you need to have Gulf Coast and hedging as a strategy now. Once you get tied up into the LNG market, then that will actually alleviate some of the need to hedge basis down there, too. So there's a lot of things that you need to do to manage the complexity down there.

是的。所以體積下降到海灣，這都是物理的。那不是財務。所以 - 我們希望隨著時間的推移增加更多內容，並且隨著時間的推移會出現更多內容。正如您可以想像的那樣，這是非常偶然的。因此，我們將尋求繼續將 FT 頭寸擴大到所有高價值地區，包括海灣地區。而且我認為重要的是要注意，當你看到該地區的大量銷量增長下降時，重要的是，隨著海恩斯維爾試圖增長和二疊紀試圖增長，對沖將在墨西哥灣沿岸發揮更大的作用。所以你現在需要將墨西哥灣沿岸和對沖作為一種策略。一旦你進入液化天然氣市場，那實際上也會減輕對沖基差的一些需求。因此，您需要做很多事情來管理那裡的複雜性。

Got you. Very helpful. And then maybe could you talk about the allocation of free cash flow in future periods? If we see a significant call on gas prices from LNG demand, do buybacks compete with acceleration? Do you look at them independently? Or do you compare them on kind of an IRR level? Or is it maybe you guys have an internal NAV on your company? And if your shares trade below or above, that's how you decide what activity level to do?

明白了很有幫助。然後你能談談未來期間自由現金流的分配嗎？如果我們看到液化天然氣需求對天然氣價格產生重大影響，回購是否會與加速競爭？你獨立地看待它們嗎？或者您是否在 IRR 水平上比較它們？還是你們公司有內部資產淨值？如果您的股票交易價格低於或高於，這就是您決定採取何種活動水平的方式？

Well, right now, until we have, call it, LNG off the East Coast, we're going to be running in a maintenance of capital perspective. So right now, the buybacks are competing probably more with our debt retirement and maybe a little bit on the margin with dividend. If we were to get access to East Coast LNG and be able to grow, which we're talking, we'll call it, several years into the future, then it will be a rate of return exercise, and we'll have a view of what we think our NAV at a, we'll call it, mid-cycle price, and then we'll compare it against the value we can get to lock in that growth with LNG pricing.

好吧，現在，直到我們擁有東海岸的液化天然氣，我們將以維持資本的角度運行。所以現在，回購可能更多地與我們的債務退休競爭，而且可能與股息有一點差距。如果我們能夠獲得東海岸液化天然氣並能夠增長，我們正在談論，我們稱之為未來幾年，那麼這將是一個回報率練習，我們將有一個考慮到我們認為我們的資產淨值處於一個我們稱之為周期中期的價格，然後我們將它與我們可以通過液化天然氣定價鎖定增長的價值進行比較。

The next question comes from Harry Mateer from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Harry Mateer。

Circling back to Tug Hill, the bonds you issued last year had some SMR conditions in them linked to a deal closing by June 30. And I appreciate you still think you're on track to close by midyear, but clearly, it's going to be a little bit closer to that date than you originally envisioned. So Dave, maybe you can talk a bit about how you're thinking through those mechanics and what your contingency is of closing if closing's still is last June.

回到 Tug Hill，你去年發行的債券中有一些 SMR 條件與 6 月 30 日之前完成的交易有關。我很感激你仍然認為你有望在年中完成，但很明顯，這將是比您最初預想的更接近那個日期。所以戴夫，也許你可以談談你是如何通過這些機制思考的，以及如果關閉仍然是在去年六月，你關閉的應急措施是什麼。

Yes. So I think if you listen to the comments we made, we purposely made the comment that we're sitting with a lot of cash and we have the term loan extension that we just did. We effectively don't need any of the bonds if we cross over into past June 30.

是的。所以我想如果你聽聽我們發表的評論，我們會故意發表評論說我們坐擁大量現金，並且我們有我們剛剛做過的期限貸款延期。如果我們跨入 6 月 30 日，我們實際上不需要任何債券。

Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up there is just, I mean, given the strong start to free cash flow this year, would your preference actually be to have even more short-term prepayable bank debt in the financing mix than you originally envisioned just to provide even more short-term debt reduction runway?

知道了。好的。然後我的後續行動只是，我的意思是，鑑於今年自由現金流的強勁開端，你實際上更願意在融資組合中擁有比你最初設想的更多的短期可提前償還銀行債務，只是為了提供更短期的減債跑道？

We'll think about that. That's more of a, I'll call it, maturity management exercise. So that's something we'll think about as we get closer to midyear.

我們會考慮的。這更像是一種，我稱之為成熟度管理練習。所以這是我們在臨近年中時會考慮的事情。

The next question is from Paul Diamond from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Diamond。

Just a quick circle back. I mean given the -- kind of looking beyond 2023 and given structural takeaway constraints, how do you guys think about opportunities for in-basin growth, whether that's through industrial or other means?

只是一個快速的循環。我的意思是，考慮到 2023 年以後的展望和結構性外賣限制，你們如何看待流域內增長的機會，無論是通過工業還是其他方式？

Are you talking about the demand growth? Or you're talking about us growing production?

您是在談論需求增長嗎？或者你在談論我們增加產量？

Demand growth in basin.

流域需求增長。

Yes. So you'll have coal retirements as part of that. As you know, the Shell cracker has come on as well. And I would say probably in the neighborhood of 1 to maybe 2 Bcf per day over the next several years is probably a good sort of ballpark number.

是的。所以你將有煤炭退休作為其中的一部分。如您所知，Shell cracker 也出現了。我想說，在接下來的幾年裡，每天大約 1 到 2 Bcf 可能是一個很好的大概數字。

Understood. And just kind of a more 30,000-foot question. As you look kind of beyond Tug Hill on the M&A front, should we think about your guys' potential use of any cash flow in a longer term, still focusing on costs? Or will any of those -- any of those goals kind of shift, whether it's to inventory or slowing production? Or how do you guys think about that kind of beyond Tug Hill and '24 and beyond?

明白了。還有一個 30,000 英尺以上的問題。當你在併購方面看起來有點超越 Tug Hill 時，我們是否應該考慮你們在長期內對任何現金流的潛在使用，仍然關注成本？或者其中任何一個 - 這些目標中的任何一個都會發生變化，無論是庫存還是減慢生產？或者你們如何看待 Tug Hill 和 '24 及以後的那種？

On an M&A basis, our strategy will stay the same. Obviously, a commitment to making sure the financial accretion is there. But the differentiating aspect is looking for opportunities that will lower our cost structure. And the new dynamic is really the competition is competing with the value from buying back our own stock. So I mean, that ultimately is going to be the thing that changes given where our stock trades, but we're going to stay committed with this strategy that we've laid out. We think it's created a lot of value and we'll stay disciplined.

在併購的基礎上，我們的戰略將保持不變。顯然，要確保金融增長的承諾就在那裡。但差異化方面正在尋找可以降低我們成本結構的機會。而新的動態實際上是競爭與回購我們自己的股票的價值競爭。所以我的意思是，鑑於我們的股票交易地點，這最終會發生變化，但我們將繼續致力於我們已經制定的戰略。我們認為它創造了很多價值，我們會保持紀律。

The next question comes from Noel Parks from Tuohy Brothers.

下一個問題來自 Tuohy Brothers 的 Noel Parks。

I just wanted to talk a bit about when we're thinking about expansion of nat gas into industrial uses, microgrid reduces and so forth, I sort of have in mind your project with Bloom Energy that has been underway for a while now. In a lot of these type of installations, what becomes evident pretty quickly is the whole sort of grid integration type of issues that can come up, especially when you're looking to sort of resiliency type issues. And I was just wondering, in the sort of EMS management -- energy management system software technology market, I'm hearing more and more about that being a focus as people look at projects. I just wondered, is that something that you could potentially see yourself making an investment in, sort of the software, energy integration software? Is that something you could picture yourself doing under the EQT umbrella?

我只是想談談我們何時考慮將天然氣擴展到工業用途、微電網減少等等，我有點想到你與 Bloom Energy 的項目，該項目已經進行了一段時間。在許多此類安裝中，很快就會出現各種網格集成類型的問題，尤其是當您正在尋找彈性類型的問題時。我只是想知道，在 EMS 管理——能源管理系統軟件技術市場中，我越來越多地聽到人們關注項目。我只是想知道，您是否有可能看到自己投資於軟件、能源集成軟件之類的東西？你能想像自己在 EQT 的保護傘下做的事情嗎？

For us, we do -- are very big supporters of electrify the world. Doing that is going to present a lot of challenges that you mentioned, the resiliency of the grids, are they capable of handling extra load presents some serious problems. I think you look at -- see what happened with California where they are going to ban ICE engines and then a week later tell their citizens to not plug in their electric vehicles and they -- to charge them. This going to present some big challenges but they're also going to present some big opportunities.

對我們來說，我們確實是電氣化世界的大力支持者。這樣做會帶來很多你提到的挑戰，電網的彈性，它們是否能夠處理額外的負載會帶來一些嚴重的問題。我想你看看 - 看看加利福尼亞發生了什麼，他們將禁止 ICE 發動機，然後一周後告訴他們的公民不要給他們的電動汽車充電，他們 - 給他們充電。這將帶來一些巨大的挑戰，但同時也會帶來一些巨大的機遇。

One of the investments that we've made on our new ventures front has been an investment in a company that is going to address the behind-the-grid power generation, company called WATT Fuel Cells is creating basically a fuel cell that runs off natural gas and generates power for the size of a microwave could power your house. These are the type of solutions that are going to strengthen our grid, but it's going to be the decentralized smaller scale opportunities that will exist and at price points that retail consumers can get into. So that's sort of what we're looking at and that falls into our promoting natural gas demand while supporting the electrification theme that's taking place.

我們在新企業方面所做的投資之一是對一家公司的投資，該公司將解決電網後發電問題，這家名為 WATT Fuel Cells 的公司基本上是在製造一種燃料電池，它可以使用自然能源產生的氣體和產生的能量相當於微波爐的大小，可以為你的房子供電。這些是將加強我們的電網的解決方案類型，但它將是分散的小規模機會，並且以零售消費者可以進入的價格點存在。所以這就是我們正在考慮的事情，這屬於我們在支持正在發生的電氣化主題的同時促進天然氣需求。

Great. Not something I've heard of before. So it's interesting. And just taking another stab at sort of the macro picture. If we look at sort of this incredibly volatile year we've had sort of spurred off by Russia, Ukraine and then sort of the downward move you saw on weather, do you think that we are -- I mean the thought for a long time was that LNG and that export demand, if anything, might sort of contain volatility a bit. But I'm wondering if it may be the reality is that we're going to see some geopolitical pressures and seasonal variances.

偉大的。不是我以前聽說過的東西。所以這很有趣。只是再次嘗試宏觀圖片。如果我們看一下這個極其動蕩的一年，我們有點受到俄羅斯、烏克蘭的刺激，然後是你看到的天氣下滑，你認為我們是——我的意思是很長一段時間以來的想法是液化天然氣和出口需求，如果有的話，可能有點波動。但我想知道現實是否可能是我們將看到一些地緣政治壓力和季節性變化。

Is it conceivable you think that we're headed towards maybe a permanent level of this sort of volatility? I mean, I looked back. Over the past year, there's maybe only 1 or 2 months that haven't seemed to have been like a $2 swing intra month on pricing. So yes, I guess I just interested in your thoughts on is this the new norm we're going to get used to? Or do you look at the past year as being more an aberration that will indeed get smoothed out by LNG?

您是否認為我們正朝著這種波動性的永久水平邁進？我的意思是，我回頭看了看。在過去的一年裡，可能只有 1 或 2 個月的定價似乎不像月內 2 美元那樣波動。所以是的，我想我只是對你的想法感興趣，這是我們要習慣的新規範嗎？還是您認為過去一年更像是一種異常現象，確實會被液化天然氣消除？

Yes. So we're in a world where natural gas is becoming a global commodity and what happens in the world will influence prices here in America. So that could introduce more volatility, but we have the opportunity to reduce the volatility and provide more stable, lower prices for Americans and also for the world.

是的。因此，我們所處的世界天然氣正在成為一種全球商品，世界上發生的事情將影響美國這裡的價格。所以這可能會帶來更多的波動，但我們有機會減少波動，為美國人和全世界提供更穩定、更低的價格。

Our ability to export natural gas, our potential is here in this country is 60 Bcf a day is what we think we have the production potential to put that amount -- to bring that amount of energy into the world, put it on the water and provide energy security for the world. That amount of energy is equivalent to 10 million barrels a day. It's equivalent to adding a Saudi Arabia of clean energy to the world stage. That's going to be a decarbonizing force and exports mean surplus and surplus means less volatility. Stores levels will stay fuller and the commodities, I think, ultimately, will be underpinned -- and the economics to the people participating in LNG will be set with long-term contracts. So the certainty on pricing and the economics of the investments that we're making will be shored up.

我們出口天然氣的能力，我們在這個國家的潛力是每天 60 Bcf，我們認為我們有生產潛力來投入這個數量——把那個數量的能源帶到世界上，把它放在水里，為世界提供能源安全。那個能量相當於每天1000萬桶。相當於在世界舞台上多了一個清潔能源的沙特阿拉伯。這將是一股脫碳力量，出口意味著盈餘，盈餘意味著波動性更小。商店水平將保持更滿，商品，我認為，最終將得到支撐——參與液化天然氣的人們的經濟效益將通過長期合同確定。因此，定價的確定性和我們正在進行的投資的經濟性將得到加強。

So we think it's a tremendous opportunity. The world will be volatility. We do not need to accept it. We can respond in America and energy producers like EQT are the key to reducing the volatility.

所以我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。世界將動盪不安。我們不需要接受它。我們可以在美國做出回應，像 EQT 這樣的能源生產商是減少波動的關鍵。

Yes. And I'd just say we need more storage capacity and we need more pipelines to be able to do it because if you keep taking coal-fired generation, which is baseload offline and don't replace it with the ability to add more baseload kind of fuel, you're going to increase volatility.

是的。我只是說我們需要更多的存儲容量，我們需要更多的管道才能做到這一點，因為如果你繼續使用燃煤發電，這是離線的基本負載，而不是用添加更多基本負載類型的能力來代替它燃料，你會增加波動性。

The next question comes from Josh Silverstein from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Josh Silverstein。

Great. You guys mentioned some flexibility in the program for this year, obviously, depending on price. Can you just elaborate a little bit more what that might mean? Would you reduce rigs? Would you just build up DUCs for next year or thoughts on any shut-ins? Just curious what you guys would think about as far as flexing activity.

偉大的。你們在今年的計劃中提到了一些靈活性，顯然，這取決於價格。你能再詳細說明一下這可能意味著什麼嗎？你會減少鑽機嗎？您會為明年建立 DUC 還是考慮任何關井？只是好奇你們會如何看待彎曲活動。

Josh, the simple way to think about it is EQT is going to continue building our production capacity. Whether we deliver that production capacity into the market will be -- and at what levels will be determined by the price that we're receiving for the product. So that means rigs are going to continue to roll, roll forward the development plans, same thing with frac crews, but whether we put that production into the market will be something that we determine at the time where those -- where that decision will be made.

喬希，考慮它的簡單方法是 EQT 將繼續建設我們的生產能力。我們是否將這種生產能力投入市場，以及在什麼水平上將取決於我們收到的產品價格。因此，這意味著鑽井平台將繼續滾動，推進開發計劃，與壓裂人員一樣，但我們是否將生產投入市場將是我們在那些時間決定的事情 - 那個決定將在哪裡製成。

Yes. I mean we're not running 15 rigs; we're running 2. Put it in perspective. So we don't have a lot of -- cutting 50% of our rigs would be more damaging to us. We can manage the production in other ways if we have to.

是的。我的意思是我們沒有運行 15 個鑽井平台；我們正在運行 2. 正確看待它。所以我們沒有很多——削減 50% 的鑽井平台會對我們造成更大的損害。如果需要，我們可以通過其他方式管理生產。

Got you. Yes. And you guys had rolled some 2022 capital into this year as well, so I wasn't sure.

明白了是的。你們今年也投入了一些 2022 年的資金，所以我不確定。

And then just another question on free cash flow allocation. Your -- you extended the thoughts on debt reduction and buyback out, obviously, because of the delay in closing the Tug Hill transaction. But relative to your targets, you have about $2.9 billion left in debt reduction, $1.4 billion left in the buyback. So kind of a 2:1 ratio there. How do you think about the allocation of wanting to hit those targets, and obviously, depending on the deal, but just as far as how you're thinking about the -- wanting to tackle both of those?

然後是關於自由現金流分配的另一個問題。你的 - 你延長了減少債務和回購的想法，顯然是因為延遲關閉 Tug Hill 交易。但相對於你的目標，你還有大約 29 億美元的債務減免，14 億美元的回購。那裡的比例是 2:1。你如何看待想要實現這些目標的分配，顯然，這取決於交易，但就你如何考慮 - 想要同時解決這兩個目標而言？

Yes. So we are -- we're actually further along on the debt buyback because of the amount of free cash flow that we did generate. And so I think we could see ourselves getting to that target somewhere around midyear next year. That gives us flexibility to buy back stock as well in that. So I'd say 2:1 is probably still a good ratio. And then once we hit our debt targets, we could then effectively change that ratio, be much more equity if we want to, assuming we're going to be opportunistic, right? But we have -- we'll have a lot of flexibility.

是的。所以我們 - 由於我們確實產生了大量的自由現金流，我們實際上在債務回購方面走得更遠。因此，我認為我們可以在明年年中左右實現該目標。這使我們也可以靈活地回購股票。所以我想說 2:1 可能仍然是一個不錯的比例。然後，一旦我們達到債務目標，我們就可以有效地改變這個比率，如果我們願意的話，可以增加更多的股權，假設我們要投機取巧，對吧？但我們有——我們將有很大的靈活性。

And then just beyond that, you think about it, we've really only allocated about 1/3 of our free cash flow. So you think about that as a longer term how do we deploy that capital, and again, that will be the next guy sitting in my seat's role to figure out how to allocate capital properly.

然後除此之外，你想一想，我們實際上只分配了大約 1/3 的自由現金流。因此，從長遠來看，您會考慮我們如何部署該資本，而且，這將是下一個坐在我的位置上的人來弄清楚如何正確分配資本。

And Dave, the next guy is going to be leveraging the capital allocation frameworks that you put in place, the modern hedging strategy put in place, so there'll be a lot of continuity in the strategic decisions that are made in this organization.

戴夫，下一個人將利用您制定的資本分配框架，制定的現代對沖策略，因此該組織製定的戰略決策將具有很大的連續性。

This concludes today's Q&A session. So I'll hand it back to the management team for concluding remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。所以我會把它交還給管理團隊做總結。

Thanks for joining our call today. Thanks for joining the call today. We are in a world that is struggling with energy security. It's been compromised and the ambitions to lower global emissions has never been stronger. Fortunately, EQT is a company that provides energy security to Americans and the world and has the capability of significantly lowering global emissions by using our natural gas to replace coal. So we're excited about the opportunity set in front of us, and we will keep our heads down executing on our business.

感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。感謝您今天加入電話會議。我們所處的世界正在努力解決能源安全問題。它受到了損害，降低全球排放量的雄心從未如此強烈。幸運的是，EQT 是一家為美國人和世界提供能源安全的公司，並且有能力通過使用我們的天然氣代替煤炭來顯著降低全球排放量。因此，我們對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮，我們將低調執行我們的業務。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。