EQT Corp (EQT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for attending today's EQT Q4 2022 Quarterly Results Conference Call. My name is Jason, and I'll be the moderator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to pass the conference over to our host, Cameron Horwitz Managing Director, Investor Relations & Strategy. You may begin.

早上好，感謝您參加今天的殷拓 2022 年第四季度季度業績電話會議。我叫 Jason，我將擔任今天電話會議的主持人。 （操作員說明）我現在想將會議轉交給我們的主持人 Cameron Horwitz 投資者關係與戰略董事總經理。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and year-end 2022 results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and David Khani, Chief Financial Officer. The replay for today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening. In a moment, Toby and Dave will present their prepared remarks with a question-and-answer session to follow. An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2022 年底業績電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官托比·賴斯 (Toby Rice)；和首席財務官 David Khani。從今天晚上開始，我們的網站上將提供今天電話會議的重播。稍後，托比和戴夫將介紹他們準備好的發言，隨後是問答環節。更新的投資者介紹已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中參考某些幻燈片。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of the factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation, in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements. Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。由於昨天的收益發布、我們的投資者介紹、10-K 表格的風險因素部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的後續文件中描述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的電話會議還可能包含某些非 GAAP 財務指標。請參閱我們最近的收益發布和投資者介紹，了解有關此類措施的重要披露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務措施的調節。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone. 2022 proved to be a year marked by tremendous geopolitical and natural gas price volatility. That said, through the ups and downs, EQT never took its eye off the ball in our relentless drive towards improving efficiency, lowering our cost structure, reducing our emissions intensity and generating meaningful value for our shareholders. I am extremely proud of the positive milestones we achieved last year and want to briefly reflect on our accomplishments. On the financial side of our business, we generated almost $2 billion of free cash flow, achieved investment-grade credit ratings. EQT stock was added to the S&P 500 Index and we executed our capital return strategy with $1.7 billion of shareholder returns via debt retirement, a base dividend and share repurchases.

謝謝，卡姆，大家早上好。事實證明，2022 年是地緣政治和天然氣價格大幅波動的一年。也就是說，儘管風風雨雨，EQT 始終不懈地努力提高效率、降低成本結構、降低排放強度並為股東創造有意義的價值。我為我們去年取得的積極里程碑感到非常自豪，並想簡要回顧一下我們的成就。在我們業務的財務方面，我們產生了近 20 億美元的自由現金流，獲得了投資級信用評級。 EQT 股票被納入標準普爾 500 指數，我們執行資本回報戰略，通過債務清償、基本股息和股票回購為股東帶來 17 億美元的回報。

On the operations front, despite a challenging oil field service and infrastructure environment, we successfully implemented sand hauling and flowback initiatives that will structurally improve cycle times, achieved meaningful completion efficiency gains in the latter part of the year that have continued into early 2023, eclipsed the basin record for drill out performance by a factor of almost 2x and reduced top hole drilling costs on our Northeast Appalachia position by 30%, leveraging lessons learned from Southwest Appalachia. On the M&A front, we announced the accretive acquisitions of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream which checks all of the boxes of our guiding M&A principles, including accretion on free cash flow and NAV per share while strengthening the free cash flow durability of our business through a material reduction in our cost structure and improved operational control through midstream integration.

在運營方面，儘管油田服務和基礎設施環境充滿挑戰，但我們成功實施了抽沙和回流計劃，這將在結構上縮短週期時間，在今年下半年取得有意義的完工效率提升，並持續到 2023 年初，黯然失色利用從西南阿巴拉契亞地區吸取的經驗教訓，將盆地的鑽探性能記錄提高了近 2 倍，並將我們東北阿巴拉契亞地區的頂孔鑽井成本降低了 30%。在併購方面，我們宣布了對 Tug Hill 和 XcL Midstream 的增值收購，這勾選了我們併購指導原則的所有方框，包括增加自由現金流和每股資產淨值，同時通過通過中游整合顯著降低成本結構並改進運營控制。

As it relates to the positive social impact of our business, EQT paid out over $1.8 billion in royalties last year to roughly 39,000 mineral owners in nearly every state in the country. Our organization also made almost $5 million in childhood donations last year, and our employees volunteered over 13,000 hours during 2022. Building on our leadership among decarbonization efforts, we completed our pneumatic device replacement initiative, a full year ahead of schedule, received a gold standard rating from the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership, or OGMP beer headed the launch of the partnership to address global emissions in the Appalachian methane initiative, and we announced the collaboration to form the Appalachian Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub or ARCH.

由於與我們業務的積極社會影響相關，EQT 去年向全國幾乎每個州的大約 39,000 名礦主支付了超過 18 億美元的特許權使用費。我們的組織去年還為兒童捐贈了近 500 萬美元，我們的員工在 2022 年志願服務了 13,000 多個小時。基於我們在脫碳工作中的領導地位，我們提前一年完成了氣動設備更換計劃，獲得了黃金標準石油和天然氣甲烷合作夥伴關係的評級，或 OGMP 啤酒領導發起了合作夥伴關係，以解決阿巴拉契亞甲烷倡議中的全球排放問題，我們宣布合作組建阿巴拉契亞地區清潔氫中心或 ARCH。

Our 2022 achievements represent yet another positive step of the journey we've been on since taking over the helm of EQT in 2019. Over this period, our team has improved asset productivity, strengthened our balance sheet, evolved our hedging strategy and added to our successful M&A track record, creating a durable free cash flow focused business model that will thrive in all natural gas price scenarios. These efforts will inevitably show through in 2023 and beyond and position EQT to create differentiated through-cycle value for all of our stakeholders.

我們在 2022 年取得的成就代表了我們自 2019 年接管 EQT 以來的征程又邁出了積極的一步。在此期間，我們的團隊提高了資產生產率，加強了我們的資產負債表，改進了我們的對沖策略，並增加了我們的成功的併購記錄，創造了一個持久的以自由現金流為中心的商業模式，該模式將在所有天然氣價格情景中蓬勃發展。這些努力將不可避免地在 2023 年及以後體現出來，並使 EQT 能夠為我們所有的利益相關者創造差異化的全週期價值。

As previously mentioned, 2022 marked a significant milestone on our path to net 0 emissions as we eliminated 100% of our nearly 9,000 natural gas powered pneumatic devices from our production operations. The impact of this effort is substantial as we reduced our methane emissions by 70% compared to 2021 levels and lowered our annual carbon footprint by roughly 305,000 metric tons of CO2 equivalent which is equivalent to taking over 66,000 passenger vehicles off the road. The coordinated effort covering 3,000 wells in nearly 550 pad sites is another testament to EQT's ability to efficiently engineer and execute projects at scale.

如前所述，2022 年是我們實現淨零排放道路上的一個重要里程碑，因為我們從生產運營中淘汰了近 9,000 台天然氣動力氣動設備中的 100%。這項努力的影響是巨大的，因為與 2021 年的水平相比，我們將甲烷排放量減少了 70%，並將我們每年的碳足跡減少了大約 305,000 公噸二氧化碳當量，相當於減少了 66,000 多輛乘用車上路。涵蓋近 550 個油田的 3,000 口井的協調工作再次證明了 EQT 高效設計和大規模執行項目的能力。

Our team completed this effort a full year ahead of schedule at a cost of $28 million. This equates to a carbon abatement cost of just $6 per ton, highlighting our position at the lowest end of the carbon abatement cost curve globally. The successful execution of our pneumatic device replacement program materially derisks our path to net 0 by 2025. At which point, EQT will be the first energy company in the world of meaningful scale to achieve net 0 GHG emissions on a scope 1 and 2 basis. We view the emissions profile of our natural gas as a strategic asset for our shareholders ensuring that EQT's molecules will remain among the most coveted in the world for decades to come.

我們的團隊以 2800 萬美元的成本提前一整年完成了這項工作。這相當於每噸碳減排成本僅為 6 美元，凸顯了我們在全球碳減排成本曲線最低端的地位。我們的氣動設備更換計劃的成功執行大大降低了我們到 2025 年實現淨零排放的風險。屆時，EQT 將成為世界上第一家在範圍 1 和範圍 2 的基礎上實現溫室氣體淨零排放的具有重要規模的能源公司。我們將天然氣的排放概況視為股東的戰略資產，確保 EQT 的分子在未來幾十年內保持世界上最令人垂涎的地位。

In addition to our individual emissions reduction success, we also recently spearheaded the launch of the Appalachia Methane initiative, or AMI, to further enhance methane monitoring throughout the Appalachian Basin. AMI will promote greater efficiency in the identification and remedy of potential fugitive methane emissions to a coordinated satellite and aerial surveys with monitored results through transparent publicly available reporting. This basin-wide sector agnostic approach to methane monitoring will not only allow accountability for methane emissions from all emitters, we believe it will eliminate any doubt that Appalachian natural gas is the cleanest form of traditional energy in the world.

除了我們各自的減排成功之外，我們最近還帶頭髮起了阿巴拉契亞甲烷倡議 (Appalachia Methane initiative, AMI)，以進一步加強整個阿巴拉契亞盆地的甲烷監測。 AMI 將提高識別和補救潛在逃逸甲烷排放的效率，以協調衛星和航空調查，並通過透明的公開報告提供監測結果。這種與流域範圍內的部門無關的甲烷監測方法不僅可以對所有排放者的甲烷排放進行問責，我們相信這將消除人們對阿巴拉契亞天然氣是世界上最清潔的傳統能源形式的任何懷疑。

Turning to our reserve report. When taking the range of EQT in 2019, our team implemented multiple initiatives aimed at creating consistent, predictable well performance in systematically minimizing parent-child impacts via large-scale combo development. These initiatives have laid the foundation for our team to generate a solid track record of forecasting accuracy with well performance projections regularly within 2% accuracy. This consistency is reflected in our 2022 reserve report as our proved reserves were up modestly year-over-year to more than 25 Tcfe Included in this number is more than 350 Bcfe of positive performance revisions, underscoring the strong productivity trends we have achieved over the past several years and a long-term repeatability from our deep core inventory.

轉向我們的儲備報告。在 2019 年採用 EQT 範圍時，我們的團隊實施了多項舉措，旨在通過大規模組合開發系統地最大限度地減少親子影響，從而創造一致、可預測的良好性能。這些舉措為我們的團隊奠定了良好的預測準確性記錄的基礎，油井性能預測的準確度定期在 2% 以內。這種一致性反映在我們的 2022 年儲量報告中，因為我們的探明儲量同比小幅增長，達到 25 Tcfe 以上。這個數字中包括超過 350 Bcfe 的積極業績修正，突顯了我們在過去幾年取得的強勁生產力趨勢過去幾年以及我們深層核心庫存的長期可重複性。

We also note the core Lower Marcellus formation accounts for 99% of our proved undeveloped reserves, meaning we have essentially no future bookings associated with secondary targets. At the year-end 2022, SEC NYMEX price deck of $6.36 per million Btu, our after-tax proved reserve value is $40.1 billion, which equates to $100 per share after subtracting our current net debt.

我們還注意到核心 Lower Marcellus 地層占我們已探明未開發儲量的 99%，這意味著我們基本上沒有與次要目標相關的未來預訂。到 2022 年底，SEC NYMEX 的價格為每百萬英熱單位 6.36 美元，我們的稅後證明儲備價值為 401 億美元，減去我們當前的淨債務後相當於每股 100 美元。

As shown on Slide 6 of our investor presentation, after-tax proved reserve value ranges from $14 billion at $3.50 gas to $41 billion at $6.50 gas, which equates to $28 to $101 per share after deducting net debt. We believe this underscores the extremely favorable risk/reward setup for EQT stock as our proved reserves ascribe value to just 300 net locations or roughly 15% of our risk inventory of greater than 1,800 core remaining locations. Looking to 2023, we are setting a capital budget of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion this year, excluding our pending Tug Hill acquisition. This contemplates turning in line 110 to 150 net wells, which is up from 74 in 2022 as third-party constraints shifted roughly 30 kills into 2023. Reserve development accounts for approximately 82% of our 2023 spending forecast. Land and lease is 7% in other, including facilities, midstream and capitalized items comprises 11%.

如我們投資者介紹的幻燈片 6 所示，稅後已證實儲備價值從 140 億美元（3.50 美元天然氣）到 410 億美元（6.50 美元天然氣），扣除淨債務後相當於每股 28 美元至 101 美元。我們認為，這凸顯了 EQT 股票極其有利的風險/回報設置，因為我們的探明儲量僅將價值歸因於 300 個淨位置，或約占我們剩餘 1,800 多個核心位置的風險庫存的 15%。展望 2023 年，我們今年的資本預算為 17 億至 19 億美元，不包括我們未決的 Tug Hill 收購。這考慮將 110 口淨井增加到 150 口，高於 2022 年的 74 口，因為第三方限制將大約 30 口井轉移到 2023 年。儲備開發約占我們 2023 年支出預測的 82%。土地和租賃在其他方面佔 7%，包括設施、中游和資本化項目佔 11%。

Our budget assumes 10% to 15% of year-over-year oilfield service inflation includes $100-plus million for TILs that have shifted from 2022 into 2023 and approximately $50 million for new well design science, $40 million for midstream and roughly $15 million for new ventures. Our 2023 production guidance is 1.9 to 2 Tcfe which is consistent with our prior commentary of getting back to the 500 Bcfe per quarter of run rate production by the middle of this year. We've seen solid completion efficiency trends in Q4 and throughout January giving us confidence in our operational execution early in the year.

我們的預算假設油田服務同比增長 10% 至 15%，其中包括從 2022 年轉移到 2023 年的 TIL 的 100 多萬美元，新油井設計科學的約 5000 萬美元，中游的 4000 萬美元和約 1500 萬美元的新企業。我們的 2023 年生產指導是 1.9 到 2 Tcfe，這與我們之前的評論一致，即到今年年中恢復到每季度 500 Bcfe 的運行率生產。我們在第四季度和整個 1 月份看到了穩固的完工效率趨勢，這讓我們對年初的運營執行充滿信心。

That said, the low end of our guidance range contemplates a scenario where we slow our production cadence for the year should natural gas prices continue to deteriorate. At the midpoint of our guidance ranges, our implied all-in 2023 capital efficiency equates to approximately $0.90 per Mcfe. Given the catch-up capital associated with TILs shifting from 2022 into 2023 will be nonrecurring on a go-forward basis, we expect our capital efficiency to improve by 5% to 10% in 2024 and beyond, as our TIL count normalizes and CapEx declines to run rate levels.

也就是說，我們的指導範圍的低端考慮了這樣一種情況，即如果天然氣價格繼續惡化，我們將放慢今年的生產節奏。在我們指導範圍的中點，我們隱含的 2023 年全部資本效率相當於每 Mcfe 約 0.90 美元。鑑於與 TIL 相關的追趕資本從 2022 年轉移到 2023 年將不再發生，我們預計我們的資本效率將在 2024 年及以後提高 5% 至 10%，因為我們的 TIL 數量正常化且資本支出下降運行速率級別。

On Slide 31 of our investor presentation, we provided a range of 2023 adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow and free cash flow outlooks at various natural gas prices. We project adjusted EBITDA will range from roughly $2.9 billion at $3 gas to $3.9 billion at $4 gas and free cash flow from roughly $900 million to $2 billion at a similar price range, implying a free cash flow yield range of 8% to 17%. Recall our hedge book provides significant downside cash flow protection this year as we have 62% of our 2023 production hedged with a weighted average floor price of approximately $3.37 per million Btu.

在我們投資者介紹的幻燈片 31 中，我們提供了一系列 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA、運營現金流和各種天然氣價格的自由現金流展望。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 範圍從大約 29 億美元（3 美元天然氣）到 39 億美元（4 美元天然氣），自由現金流在類似價格範圍內從大約 9 億美元到 20 億美元，這意味著自由現金流收益率範圍為 8% 到 17%。回想一下，我們的對沖賬簿今年提供了顯著的下行現金流保護，因為我們對 2023 年產量的 62% 進行了對沖，加權平均底價約為每百萬英熱單位 3.37 美元。

As highlighted on Slide 10 of our presentation, EQT offers the most compelling risk-adjusted exposure to natural gas with the highest 2023 free cash flow generation among the GACE peers across all reasonable commodity price scenarios. With the reductions in our corporate cost structure and our well-positioned hedge book, EQT's free cash flow breakeven price in 2023 is approximately $1.65 per million Btu, which is roughly 40% below the peer average and among the lowest of all natural gas producers in the country.

正如我們演示文稿的幻燈片 10 中強調的那樣，EQT 在所有合理的商品價格情景中，在 GACE 同行中提供了最具吸引力的風險調整後天然氣敞口，其 2023 年自由現金流產生量最高。隨著我們公司成本結構的降低和我們定位良好的對沖賬簿，EQT 2023 年的自由現金流盈虧平衡價格約為每百萬英熱單位 1.65 美元，比同行平均水平低約 40%，是美國所有天然氣生產商中最低的國家。

I'd also note this number assumes no impact from the low-cost Tug Hill and XcL Midstream assets, which is expected to further lower our breakeven threshold. Even with the recent decline in near-term natural gas pricing, our cumulative free cash flow generation from 2022 to 2027, at strip is forecasted at greater than $12 billion, excluding Tug Hill which equates to approximately 110% of our current market capitalization and underscores the significant value proposition embedded in EQT shares.

我還要指出，這個數字假設低成本 Tug Hill 和 XcL Midstream 資產沒有影響，預計這將進一步降低我們的盈虧平衡門檻。即使近期天然氣價格有所下降，我們預計從 2022 年到 2027 年在地帶產生的累計自由現金流量將超過 120 億美元，不包括 Tug Hill，這相當於我們當前市值的約 110% 並強調EQT 股票中蘊含的重要價值主張。

The resiliency of our free cash flow generation positions us to generate value countercyclically for our shareholders, and we will continue to opportunistically do so via our share repurchase and debt repayment programs. We are capitalizing on the current environment as we have repurchased nearly 6 million shares or $200 million of stock since the beginning of the year at an average price of less than $34 per share. Since initiating our buyback program in late 2021, we have retired 20.4 million shares at an average price of approximately $30 per share. Along with the 5.7 million shares we retired via convertible note repurchases, we have reduced our fully diluted shares outstanding by more than 6% in a little over a year. Along with the equity repurchases, we have also retired an incremental $283 million of debt principal since our last update at an average cost of 95% of par.

我們自由現金流產生的彈性使我們能夠逆週期地為股東創造價值，我們將繼續通過我們的股票回購和債務償還計劃機會主義地這樣做。我們正在利用當前的環境，因為自今年年初以來，我們以低於每股 34 美元的平均價格回購了近 600 萬股或 2 億美元的股票。自 2021 年底啟動回購計劃以來，我們已以每股約 30 美元的平均價格回購了 2040 萬股股票。連同我們通過可轉換票據回購退役的 570 萬股股票，我們在一年多一點的時間裡將完全稀釋的已發行股票減少了 6% 以上。自我們上次更新以來，除了股權回購之外，我們還以面值的 95% 的平均成本償還了 2.83 億美元的增量債務本金。

This takes our total debt retirement to more than $1.1 billion since the beginning of 2022 and underscores our commitment to a bulletproof balance sheet. Looking ahead, our game plan for shareholder returns remains consistent as we will methodically progress towards our goal of achieving 1 to 1.5x leverage at a conservative $2.75 gas price and we will opportunistically lean into equity repurchases to maximize returns for shareholders. As we mentioned previously, we project greater than $12 billion of free cash flow through 2027 at current strip, so we have material firepower for shareholder returns above and beyond our current equity and debt repurchase authorizations.

自 2022 年初以來，這使我們的債務清償總額超過 11 億美元，並強調了我們對防彈資產負債表的承諾。展望未來，我們的股東回報遊戲計劃將保持一致，因為我們將有條不紊地朝著以保守的 2.75 美元汽油價格實現 1 到 1.5 倍槓桿率的目標邁進，我們將適時進行股權回購，以最大限度地提高股東回報。正如我們之前提到的，我們預計到 2027 年的自由現金流量將超過 120 億美元，因此我們擁有超出當前股權和債務回購授權的股東回報的物質火力。

As it relates to the pending Tug Hill acquisition, we are currently in the process of responding to the FTC's second request and remain committed to closing the acquisition. Recall, as we highlighted with the announcement the deal structure in Tog Hill's low-cost assets generate greater free cash flow per share accretion to EQT shareholders at lower natural gas prices. Our latest analysis shows the Tug Hill deal is more than 10% free cash flow per share accretive in '24 through 2025 before factoring in synergies compared with approximately 5% at the time of announcement demonstrating the importance of EQT's focus on acquiring the lowest cost most durable free cash flow through well-structured transactions.

由於涉及待定的 Tug Hill 收購，我們目前正在響應 FTC 的第二個請求，並繼續致力於完成收購。回想一下，正如我們在公告中強調的那樣，Tog Hill 低成本資產的交易結構以較低的天然氣價格為 EQT 股東帶來了更大的每股自由現金流增長。我們的最新分析顯示，在考慮協同效應之前，Tug Hill 交易在 24 年到 2025 年的每股自由現金流增幅超過 10%，而在宣佈時約為 5%，這表明 EQT 專注於以最低成本收購的重要性通過結構良好的交易實現持久的自由現金流。

We also note with the renegotiation of the purchase agreement late last year, Tug Hill layered on hedges covering roughly half of its 2023 gas volumes with floors at $5 per million BTU. The benefit of which will flow through to EQT via the purchase price adjustment at closing. We plan to update the market with more details around timing of closing the transaction as we approach midyear and will provide full pro forma guidance upon closing.

我們還注意到，隨著去年底重新談判購買協議，Tug Hill 對其 2023 年天然氣量的大約一半進行了分層對沖，底價為每百萬 BTU 5 美元。其收益將通過收盤時的購買價格調整流入 EQT。我們計劃在臨近年中時向市場提供有關交易完成時間的更多詳細信息，並將在交易完成時提供完整的預估指導。

To sum up, I am extremely proud of our 2022 accomplishments as we made significant progress in our pursuit to become the lowest cost, most reliable and cleanest energy producer in the world. Our operational and financial and acquisition efforts over the past several years have deliberately sculpted our business such that it can thrive through the ups and downs of all parts of the commodity price cycle. Notwithstanding the recent natural gas price pullback, we have never been as bullish on the future of natural gas and the value proposition of EQT as we are today, and we will continue our relentless efforts to crystallize this value for our stakeholders.

總而言之，我為我們在 2022 年取得的成就感到非常自豪，因為我們在追求成為世界上成本最低、最可靠和最清潔的能源生產商方面取得了重大進展。我們在過去幾年的運營、財務和收購努力刻意塑造了我們的業務，使其能夠在商品價格週期的所有部分的起伏中蓬勃發展。儘管最近天然氣價格回落，但我們從未像今天這樣看好天然氣的未來和殷拓的價值主張，我們將繼續不懈努力，為我們的利益相關者明確這一價值。

Before turning the call over to Dave, as you may have seen earlier this week, we announced Dave will be transitioning out of EQT later this year. Dave has been an integral part of our team since 2020, and we are grateful for his contributions to our company. Dave came into EQT at a pivotal time and had clear objectives to help us turn around EQT and he delivered. He successfully positioned the company with a promising future through many efforts, include designing and executing a debt repayment strategy, improving our credit ratings and facilitating our capital allocation plans. Dave tackled these projects with heart and urgency and his leadership contributed to our company moving from a challenging balance sheet position back to investment grade in record time. He not only achieved his goals but did so with professionalism and thoughtfulness. I'm immensely thankful for him as a colleague and a friend and I'm excited to see him move on to the next phase in his life.

在將電話轉給 Dave 之前，正如您本週早些時候看到的那樣，我們宣布 Dave 將在今年晚些時候離開 EQT。自 2020 年以來，戴夫一直是我們團隊不可或缺的一部分，我們感謝他對我們公司的貢獻。 Dave 在關鍵時刻加入 EQT，他有明確的目標來幫助我們扭轉 EQT 的局面，他做到了。他通過許多努力成功地為公司定位了一個充滿希望的未來，包括設計和執行債務償還戰略、提高我們的信用評級和促進我們的資本配置計劃。 Dave 以熱忱和緊迫的態度處理了這些項目，他的領導幫助我們公司在創紀錄的時間內從具有挑戰性的資產負債表狀況恢復到投資級別。他不僅實現了自己的目標，而且以專業和周到的方式實現了目標。作為同事和朋友，我非常感謝他，我很高興看到他進入人生的下一個階段。

I'll now turn the call over to you, guys.

伙計們，我現在把電話轉給你們。

Thanks, Toby. It has been an honor having spent the last 3 years working with you and the EQT team. I've been amazed at how much this organization has accomplished in such a short period of time, and I am grateful to have been part of that evolution. EQT is truly a unique company with a world-class asset base and exceptional culture, a proven development model and a strong balance sheet. I am proud to have left my mark on this company and will be leaving EQT on the trajectory that will create shareholder value for years to come. As mentioned in the announcement this week, I will stay fully engaged with EQT for the next several months as I help facilitate a smooth transition, and I look forward to seeing many of you at upcoming investor events.

謝謝，托比。在過去的 3 年裡，我很榮幸與您和 EQT 團隊共事。我對這個組織在如此短的時間內取得的成就感到驚訝，我很感激能參與其中。 EQT 是一家真正獨特的公司，擁有世界一流的資產基礎和卓越的文化、行之有效的發展模式和強大的資產負債表。我很自豪能在這家公司留下自己的印記，並將離開 EQT，在未來幾年為股東創造價值。正如本周公告中所述，在接下來的幾個月裡，我將與 EQT 保持全面接觸，以幫助促進平穩過渡，我期待在即將舉行的投資者活動中見到你們中的許多人。

Now turning to results. I'll briefly summarize our fourth quarter and full year numbers before discussing our balance sheet hedging and 2023 guidance. Sales volumes for the fourth quarter were 459 Bcfe, roughly in line with the midpoint of our guidance range despite weather-related impact of approximately 10 Bcfe. Our adjusted operating revenues for the quarter were $1.32 billion or $2.87 per Mcfe, and our total per unit operating costs were $1.39, resulting in an operating margin of $1.48 per Mcfe. Capital expenditures, excluding noncontrolling interests were $396 million in the fourth quarter, slightly below the midpoint of our guidance range.

現在轉向結果。在討論我們的資產負債表對沖和 2023 年指引之前，我將簡要總結我們的第四季度和全年數據。第四季度的銷量為 459 Bcfe，大致符合我們指導範圍的中點，儘管與天氣相關的影響約為 10 Bcfe。我們本季度調整後的營業收入為 13.2 億美元或每 Mcfe 2.87 美元，每單位營業成本總額為 1.39 美元，因此營業利潤率為每 Mcfe 1.48 美元。第四季度資本支出（不包括非控股權益）為 3.96 億美元，略低於我們指導範圍的中點。

Full 2022 capital expenditures came in at $1.43 billion, excluding acquisitions, in line with the midpoint of our $1.4 billion to $1.475 billion guidance range. Fourth quarter adjusted operating cash flow was $622 million, and free cash flow was $226 million, which takes our total 2022 free cash flow generation to approximately $1.94 billion.

2022 年全部資本支出為 14.3 億美元，不包括收購，符合我們 14 億美元至 14.75 億美元指導範圍的中點。第四季度調整後的經營現金流為 6.22 億美元，自由現金流為 2.26 億美元，這使我們 2022 年產生的自由現金流總額達到約 19.4 億美元。

We also saw a $442 million working capital tailwind during the quarter, which was driven by a receipt of our cash election option from E-Train, declining accounts receivables from decreasing prices and lower margin requirements. Our capital efficiency for the quarter came in at $0.86 per Mcfe, up from $0.72 per Mcfe in the third quarter driven by lower production. This was expected due to third-party infrastructure limitations earlier in the year that negatively impacted our 2022 TIL count.

本季度我們還看到了 4.42 億美元的營運資金順風，這是由於我們從 E-Train 收到現金選擇權、價格下降和保證金要求降低導致應收賬款減少。由於產量下降，我們本季度的資本效率為每 Mcfe 0.86 美元，高於第三季度每 Mcfe 0.72 美元。這是由於今年早些時候第三方基礎設施限制對我們 2022 年 TIL 計數產生負面影響而導致的。

For the full year 2022 our capital efficiency averaged approximately $0.74 per Mcfe, which is roughly 30% below the gas peer group average despite the just noted third-party issues impacting production last year. Turning over to the balance sheet. A core tenet to our company's operating philosophy is to have a strong credit profile and ample liquidity. We believe this will create differentiated value opportunities for EQT moving forward. Recall, we saw several positive balance sheet milestones last year, including achieving investment-grade credit rating.

在 2022 年全年，我們的資本效率平均約為每千克費 0.74 美元，這比天然氣同行組的平均水平低約 30%，儘管去年剛剛提到的第三方問題影響了生產。轉向資產負債表。我們公司經營理念的核心宗旨是擁有良好的信用狀況和充足的流動性。我們相信這將為 EQT 的未來發展創造差異化的價值機會。回想一下，去年我們看到了幾個積極的資產負債表里程碑，包括實現投資級信用評級。

Our balance sheet improvements continue in the fourth quarter with trailing 12-month net leverage exiting the year at 1.2x and down from 2.3x a year ago. We exited 2022 with $4.2 billion of net debt and $1.46 billion of cash on hand inclusive of the $1 billion in proceeds from the notes offering in the fourth quarter that will be used to help fund the cash portion of our pending Tug Hill acquisition.

我們的資產負債表在第四季度繼續改善，過去 12 個月的淨槓桿率為 1.2 倍，低於一年前的 2.3 倍。到 2022 年，我們帶著 42 億美元的淨債務和 14.6 億美元的手頭現金退出，其中包括第四季度發行票據的 10 億美元收益，這些收益將用於為我們即將進行的 Tug Hill 收購的現金部分提供資金。

As Toby mentioned, we continue actively progress towards our debt retirement initiatives. We've retired an incremental $283 million of senior note principal since our last update via open market purchases at an average price of $0.95 at par. Since unveiling our capital returns framework, we have now retired more than $1.1 billion of debt principal, which has eliminated nearly $40 million of annual interest expense.

正如 Toby 提到的，我們繼續積極推進我們的債務退休計劃。自我們上次更新以來，我們已經通過公開市場購買以平均面值 0.95 美元的價格償還了 2.83 億美元的高級票據本金。自推出我們的資本回報框架以來，我們現在已經償還了超過 11 億美元的債務本金，從而消除了近 4000 萬美元的年度利息支出。

Moving to hedging. Our 2023 hedge book underscores our evolving hedge philosophy that seeks to provide investors with the best risk-adjusted exposure to natural gas prices. We currently have 62% of our 2023 gas production covered with floors, an average weighted price of $3.37 per MMBtu which provides significant cash flow protection and downside pricing scenarios while maintaining our private exposure.

轉向對沖。我們的 2023 年對沖賬簿強調了我們不斷發展的對沖理念，該理念旨在為投資者提供最佳的風險調整後天然氣價格敞口。我們目前有 62% 的 2023 年天然氣產量覆蓋底線，平均加權價格為每百萬英熱單位 3.37 美元，這提供了重要的現金流保護和下行定價方案，同時保持了我們的私人風險敞口。

Since our last update, we have also added to our 2024 hedge position with 10% of our 24 volumes now hedged at a weighted average floor price of $4.20 per MMB2 and a weighted average ceiling of $5.40 per MOB. As it relates to basis, we have nearly 90% of our 2023 Appalachian production covered via basis hedges, providing significant protection against any potential material widening of differentials.

自上次更新以來，我們還增加了 2024 年的對沖頭寸，我們 24 卷中的 10% 現在以每 MMB2 4.20 美元的加權平均底價和每 MOB 5.40 美元的加權平均上限進行對沖。就基差而言，我們將近 90% 的 2023 年阿巴拉契亞產量都通過基差對沖覆蓋，從而為防止任何潛在的實質性差異擴大提供了重要保護。

Over the medium to long term, we see reasons for structural optimism as it relates to local basis, most notably driven by incremental power demand growth in PJM and coal-fired power retirements. We have also benefited from expanding firm transportation portfolio as we've been able to ship gas further west and capture associated favorable pricing dynamics. Recall, we have added an incremental $300 million a day to our FT portfolio last year, including $200 million to the Gulf Coast and $100 million to the Midwest.

從中長期來看，我們看到了結構性樂觀的理由，因為它與地方基礎有關，最顯著的推動因素是 PJM 的增量電力需求增長和燃煤發電退役。我們還受益於擴大公司運輸組合，因為我們能夠將天然氣運往更遠的西部並捕捉相關的有利定價動態。回想一下，我們去年在 FT 投資組合中每天增加了 3 億美元，其中包括墨西哥灣沿岸的 2 億美元和中西部的 1 億美元。

Looking ahead, we expect additional opportunities to expand our FT position as our peer-leading inventory depth allows us to capitalize on the trend we've seen of other Appalachian operators releasing existing firm transportation capacity. For 2023, our market mix is expected to be roughly 37% local, 28% Gulf Coast, 20% Midwest and 15% East. Note we now model an MDP start-up in the second half of 2024, which at the midpoint will take our local basin exposure to approximately 30%. As a reminder, our gathering rates contractually begin declining in 2025 independent of MDP's success, providing a further tailwind to free cash flow as our margins wide.

展望未來，我們預計會有更多機會擴大我們的 FT 地位，因為我們同行領先的庫存深度使我們能夠利用我們看到的其他阿巴拉契亞運營商釋放現有公司運輸能力的趨勢。到 2023 年，我們的市場結構預計大約為 37% 本地、28% 墨西哥灣沿岸、20% 中西部和 15% 東部。請注意，我們現在模擬 2024 年下半年的 MDP 啟動，在中點將使我們當地流域的風險敞口達到約 30%。提醒一下，我們的收款率根據合同在 2025 年開始下降，與 MDP 的成功無關，隨著我們的利潤率擴大，為自由現金流提供了進一步的推動力。

Turning to guidance. We expect 2023 production volumes to range from 1.9 Ts to 2 Ts with the midpoint roughly flat compared with 2022. As we bring online the incremental pills that were delayed last year, we expect sequential growth in the second quarter and production achieving our 500 Bcfe quarterly maintenance run rate by midyear. Note that we contemplate a variety of scenarios in our 2023 planning with the low end of our production lines tied to the potential of moderating activity should natural gas prices continue to decline. We are setting the 2023 capital budget of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion, excluding the pending Tug Hill acquisition.

轉向指導。我們預計 2023 年的產量將在 1.9 Ts 到 2 Ts 之間，與 2022 年相比，中點大致持平。隨著我們將去年推遲的增量藥片上線，我們預計第二季度將出現連續增長，產量將達到每季度 500 Bcfe年中維護運行率。請注意，我們在 2023 年計劃中考慮了多種情景，如果天然氣價格繼續下跌，我們生產線的低端與活動放緩的可能性有關。我們將 2023 年的資本預算定為 17 億美元至 19 億美元，不包括待定的 Tug Hill 收購。

Our budget embeds 10% to 15% year-over-year oil service inflation, with our supply chain contracting strategy, providing strong access and cost position. With the likely decline of gas-directed drilling activity this year, we see the opportunity for some price relief in the second half of 2023. This has not been factored into our outlook.

我們的預算包含 10% 至 15% 的石油服務通脹，我們的供應鏈承包戰略提供了強大的准入和成本地位。隨著今年天然氣定向鑽井活動可能減少，我們認為 2023 年下半年價格有機會有所緩解。我們的前景並未考慮到這一點。

As Toby mentioned, $100-plus million of our budget is associated with turning in line wells that slipped from 2022 into 2023 to third-party constraints and thus we not anticipate to carry forward into periods. This dynamic, along with the shallowing of our base PDP decline is anticipated to drive 5% to 10% improvement in our capital efficiency in 2024 and beyond. On Slide 31 of our investor deck, we've provided adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow and free cash flow outlook for 2023 at various NYMEX natural gas prices. Aided by insulation from our hedge book and material cost improvements, we have achieved over the past several years, our projected 2023 free cash flow ranges from approximately $900 million at $3 gas to $2 billion at $4 gas implying a free cash flow yield of 8% to 17%.

正如 Toby 所提到的，我們有 100 多萬美元的預算與從 2022 年到 2023 年因第三方限製而下滑的管線井轉向有關，因此我們預計不會結轉到各個時期。這種動態，加上我們基本 PDP 下降的放緩，預計將在 2024 年及以後推動我們的資本效率提高 5% 至 10%。在我們投資者平台的幻燈片 31 上，我們以不同的 NYMEX 天然氣價格提供了 2023 年調整後的 EBITDA、運營現金流和自由現金流展望。在我們的對沖賬簿和材料成本改進的幫助下，我們在過去幾年中取得了成就，我們預計 2023 年的自由現金流量範圍從約 9 億美元（3 美元天然氣）到 20 億美元（4 美元天然氣），這意味著自由現金流收益率為 8%到 17%。

As it relates to cash taxes, we had roughly $1 billion of federal NOLs as of the end of 2022 and at current strip pricing, we expect these NOLs to offset the bulk of our 2023 cash taxes. Our 2024 cash tax rate would be approximately 7% to 9% of operating income or $150 million to $200 million at current strip pricing increasing to the low 20% range in 2025 and beyond, which is fully captured in our cumulative free cash flow outlook.

由於涉及現金稅，截至 2022 年底，我們擁有大約 10 億美元的聯邦 NOL，按照目前的剝離定價，我們預計這些 NOL 將抵消我們 2023 年現金稅的大部分。我們的 2024 年現金稅率將約為營業收入的 7% 至 9%，或按當前剝離定價計算為 1.5 億至 2 億美元，並在 2025 年及以後增加至 20% 的低範圍，這完全反映在我們的累積自由現金流展望中。

Turning to capital allocation. We have now retired over 20 million shares of our buyback authorization at an average price of $30 per share. Recall that we have eliminated additional 5.7 million shares via convertible note repurchases last year. So in total, we've lowered our fully diluted share count by more than 6% since beginning of 2022. We still have significant firepower to retire shares with $1.4 billion remaining under our current $2 billion authorization. As mentioned previously, we've also made significant progress to our debt retirement with $1.1 billion of debt principal retired since initiating our capital return framework. We continue to target absolute debt of $3.5 billion pro forma for the tug acquisition, which will further bulletproof our balance sheet by taking our debt-to-EBITDA to 1 to 1.5x, assuming a $2.75 NYMEX gas price.

轉向資本配置。我們現在已經以每股 30 美元的平均價格退回了超過 2000 萬股回購授權。回想一下，我們去年通過可轉換票據回購額外減持了 570 萬股。因此，總的來說，自 2022 年初以來，我們已將完全稀釋後的股票數量減少了 6% 以上。我們仍有強大的火力來淘汰股票，根據我們目前的 20 億美元授權，剩餘 14 億美元。如前所述，自啟動我們的資本回報框架以來，我們在債務償還方面也取得了重大進展，償還了 11 億美元的債務本金。我們繼續將收購拖輪的絕對債務目標定為 35 億美元，假設 NYMEX 天然氣價格為 2.75 美元，這將使我們的債務與 EBITDA 之比達到 1 至 1.5 倍，從而進一步加強我們的資產負債表。

Looking ahead, our low-cost structure and hedge book provide differentiated downside protection for 2023 free cash flow, which we will allocate towards our base dividend further debt retirement and opportunistic equity buybacks with an anticipated greater than $12 million of cumulative free cash flow from 2022 through 2027 and we have plenty of firepower to achieve and exceed our debt retirement goal and equity buyback authorizations.

展望未來，我們的低成本結構和對沖賬簿為 2023 年的自由現金流提供了差異化的下行保護，我們將把這些保護分配給我們的基本股息，進一步償還債務和機會性股權回購，預計從 2022 年起累計自由現金流將超過 1200 萬美元到 2027 年，我們有足夠的火力來實現並超過我們的債務退休目標和股權回購授權。

I'll conclude by highlighting Slide 11 of our investor deck, which underscores the economic impact of the cost structure improvements that EQT has achieved over the past several years from 2019 to 2021, we generated an average ROCE of negative 8% at an average realized natural gas price of approximately $2.50 per MMBtu, inclusive of hedging. Over this period, we've reduced annual costs by roughly $700 million, which spring loads our corporate return profile into an improving natural gas price environment. This was exemplified in 2022 as our ROCE jumped to roughly 17% with just a $0.50 improvement in realized natural gas prices at $3 per MMBtu. At current strip pricing, our ROCE should improve over the coming years, highlighting the sustainability of our operating model and the value creation potential of our business.

最後，我將重點介紹我們投資者平台的幻燈片 11，它強調了殷拓在過去幾年（2019 年至 2021 年）取得的成本結構改善對經濟的影響，我們平均實現的 ROCE 為負 8%天然氣價格約為每百萬英熱單位 2.50 美元，包括套期保值。在此期間，我們每年減少了大約 7 億美元的成本，這使我們的企業回報狀況加載到不斷改善的天然氣價格環境中。這在 2022 年得到了例證，我們的 ROCE 躍升至約 17%，實現的天然氣價格僅上漲 0.50 美元，每百萬英熱單位 3 美元。按照目前的剝離定價，我們的 ROCE 應該在未來幾年有所改善，突出我們運營模式的可持續性和我們業務的價值創造潛力。

I'll now turn the call back to Toby for some concluding remarks.

我現在將電話轉回托比，聽取一些總結性意見。

Thanks, Dave. To conclude today's prepared remarks, I want to reiterate a few points. One, through our relentless cost reduction efforts, balanced hedging strategy and execution on accretive M&A opportunities, we have purposely positioned EQT to thrive in all natural gas price scenarios; two, EQT is on track to become the first energy producer of meaningful scale to achieve net 0 Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions, and we believe the market is only scratching the surface of recognizing the strategic value of the emissions profile of our natural gas.

謝謝，戴夫。在結束今天準備好的發言時，我想重申幾點。第一，通過我們不懈的成本削減努力、平衡的對沖策略和對增值併購機會的執行，我們有目的地讓 EQT 在所有天然氣價格情景中蓬勃發展；第二，殷拓有望成為第一家實現淨零範圍 1 和 2 溫室氣體排放的有意義規模的能源生產商，我們相信市場對我們天然氣排放概況的戰略價值的認識只是觸及表面。

Three, our 2022 reserve report underscores the consistency of our combo development strategy positive well performance trends and the tremendous value inherent in our proved reserve base with significant upside based on our peer-leading inventory depth. Four, our opportunistic capital return strategy has positioned us well to capitalize on temporary gas price weakness ahead of a structurally bullish natural gas outlook over the coming decades.

第三，我們的 2022 年儲量報告強調了我們的組合開發戰略積極的油井性能趨勢的一致性，以及我們探明儲量基礎的巨大內在價值，基於我們同行領先的庫存深度，具有顯著的上行空間。第四，我們的機會主義資本回報策略使我們能夠在未來幾十年結構性看漲的天然氣前景之前充分利用暫時的天然氣價格疲軟。

And lastly, EQT offers among the best risk-adjusted exposure to natural gas prices and has one of the lowest 2023 free cash flow breakeven NYMEX prices of all U.S. natural gas producers, which underscores the sustainability of our business through all parts of the commodity cycle. I'd now like to open the call to questions.

最後，EQT 提供了最佳的風險調整後天然氣價格敞口，並且是所有美國天然氣生產商中 2023 年自由現金流盈虧平衡 NYMEX 價格最低的之一，這突顯了我們業務在商品週期各個階段的可持續性.我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Umang Choudhary with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Umang Choudhary。

First, Dave, thank you for everything and wish you the best as we begin the next after release, and hope to stay in touch and also look forward to engaging with in the next quarter. I guess for the first question, given your low free cash flow breakeven this year, and -- you have some options. So how would you think about cash flow allocation opportunities between share repurchase and debt reduction?

首先，戴夫，感謝你所做的一切，並祝你在發布後的下一個開始時一切順利，並希望保持聯繫並期待在下個季度參與。我想對於第一個問題，鑑於你今年的自由現金流盈虧平衡點很低，而且 - 你有一些選擇。那麼您如何看待股票回購和債務減免之間的現金流分配機會？

Yes. Great question. So I think you'll see us continue our approach towards our capital allocation plans. What you've seen in the past has been a prioritization of debt paydown. That's going to shift asset value into the hands of our equity holders. And then you'll see us continue to be opportunistic with the buybacks. And obviously, the fixed dividend that we put in place is durable and will be a story that will continue to look to grow that over time.

是的。很好的問題。所以我想你會看到我們繼續我們的資本配置計劃。你在過去看到的是優先償還債務。這會將資產價值轉移到我們的股東手中。然後你會看到我們繼續對回購持機會主義態度。顯然，我們實施的固定股息是持久的，並且隨著時間的推移將繼續增長。

Yes. And I'd just add to that as we hit our debt targets, you could see the percentage of our free cash flow increasing towards equity -- time.

是的。而且我只是補充說，當我們達到我們的債務目標時，你可以看到我們的自由現金流的百分比增加到股權 - 時間。

That's awesome. And then would love your latest thoughts on the natural gas outlook. On the -- what are you expecting from a supply response, how are you thinking the market is shaping up and then how does that change the way you approach your strategy around hedging? And then any update on the -- any thoughts around M&A to the extent you can you can prosecute it given the -- given what's going on with Tug Hill.

棒極了。然後會喜歡你對天然氣前景的最新想法。關於 - 您對供應響應的期望是什麼，您如何看待市場正在形成，然後這將如何改變您處理對沖策略的方式？然後任何關於併購的任何更新——任何關於併購的想法，你可以在一定程度上起訴它——鑑於 Tug Hill 的情況。

Yes. So gas volatility has tripled since early 2021. And so we think that's going to continue. And so our hedging strategy -- our Edge 2.0 strategy really encapsulates that volatility. So everybody has to remember, volatility moves in both directions. And so that's why we put our kind of the risk-adjusted upside in the way we structure our hedges with white collars.

是的。因此，自 2021 年初以來，天然氣波動性增加了兩倍。因此我們認為這種情況將繼續下去。因此，我們的對沖策略——我們的 Edge 2.0 策略確實涵蓋了這種波動性。所以每個人都必須記住，波動是雙向的。因此，這就是為什麼我們將風險調整後的優勢放在我們用白領構建對沖的方式中。

As far as gas right now, gas is right now oversupplied, and we kind of anticipated that and why we put as much of a hedge in place and got a little more aggressive mid-year. We obviously see the higher cost producers starting to cut back on activity. It's going to take a little while to get there. You're also seeing coal burn coming down and absorbing some of this as well. We'll see some industrial demand pick back up as the chemical industry is destocking and that will start to pick up and absorb some of the ethane that's in the system as well as well as increasing some of the power demand as well.

就目前的天然氣而言，天然氣現在供過於求，我們有點預料到這一點，以及為什麼我們進行了盡可能多的對沖，並在年中變得更加激進。我們顯然看到成本較高的生產商開始削減活動。到達那裡需要一些時間。您還會看到煤炭燃燒量下降並吸收其中的一部分。我們將看到一些工業需求回升，因為化工業正在去庫存，這將開始吸收和吸收系統中的一些乙烷，同時也會增加一些電力需求。

So it's going to probably set the stage where it's going to take some time to get through this year to get to that balanced market. But I think if we anticipate producers reacting the way we do, we should get to kind of a more balanced market and set the stage for a better 2024.

因此，它可能會為今年需要一些時間才能進入平衡市場奠定基礎。但我認為，如果我們預計生產商會像我們一樣做出反應，我們應該會建立一個更加平衡的市場，並為更美好的 2024 年奠定基礎。

Yes. And specifically, in regards to our strategy, I think Dave's comments on our hedging strategy is designed to give us the downside protection while also giving us great exposure to commodity prices. So you'll see us continue to execute that approach. As it relates to our activity levels, what you're seeing with us this year is putting a plan in place that will get our production capacity back to 500 Bcf per quarter run rate. We feel like that's prudent to get that capacity back. But that will give us the ability to respond in more real time if we continue to see gas prices decline or we'll be happy to have that production capacity if gas prices move back to our view of where we think prices will be in the future.

是的。具體來說，關於我們的策略，我認為戴夫對我們的對沖策略的評論旨在為我們提供下行保護，同時也讓我們對商品價格有很大的敞口。所以你會看到我們繼續執行這種方法。由於它與我們的活動水平相關，您今年看到我們正在製定一項計劃，使我們的生產能力恢復到每季度 500 Bcf 的運行率。我們覺得恢復這種能力是明智的。但這將使我們能夠在我們繼續看到天然氣價格下跌時做出更實時的反應，或者如果天然氣價格回到我們認為未來價格將達到的水平，我們將很高興擁有該產能.

So on an M&A basis, we're going to continue. You'll see no change on the approach there. One of the key characteristics of our M&A approach hasn't just been on making sure we see the financial accretion on deals with cash flow per share, NAV per share. But the other factor, which is really showing up is our commitment to buying low-cost, high-quality assets and in a low cost low price environment today, you're seeing the benefits of that. And so we'll continue to reinforce that element of our M&A strategy.

因此，在併購的基礎上，我們將繼續。你會看到那裡的方法沒有變化。我們併購方法的一個關鍵特徵不僅僅是確保我們看到每股現金流量、每股資產淨值交易的財務增長。但另一個真正出現的因素是我們承諾購買低成本、高質量的資產，在當今低成本低價環境中，你看到了這樣做的好處。因此，我們將繼續加強我們併購戰略的這一要素。

Our next question comes from Sam Margolin with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Sam Margolin。

I wanted to ask about the remark on Slide 12 about looking at new well designs. And maybe just talk a little bit about like some specific outcomes you're going for with this approach, whether it's like a PDP extension type of outcome or if it's to manage declines? Or what exactly is going on with that comment?

我想問一下幻燈片 12 上關於查看新油井設計的評論。也許只是談談您希望通過這種方法獲得的一些特定結果，無論是 PDP 擴展類型的結果還是管理下降？或者該評論到底是怎麼回事？

Yes. I mean the ultimate approach in any of the science work we do is improve the economics of the projects that we're developing. The science that we're doing is going to have the effect of lowering our F&D through increasing the performance on an EUR per foot basis, but that does come with some associated increase in costs. So for us to make a full determination on the economics that we'll receive with this well design, we really need to continue through the monitoring period of the signs that we have in the ground right now. And also, we'll pair that up with service cost inflation expectations and make a decision. Insight date for that is towards the middle part of this year. So we'll come back to you with an update as we get this information.

是的。我的意思是，我們所做的任何科學工作的最終方法是提高我們正在開發的項目的經濟性。我們正在做的科學將通過提高每英尺 EUR 的性能來降低我們的 F&D，但這確實會帶來一些相關的成本增加。因此，為了讓我們完全確定我們將通過這種井設計獲得的經濟效益，我們真的需要繼續監測我們現在在地面上的跡象。而且，我們會將其與服務成本通脹預期結合起來做出決定。洞察日期是在今年年中。因此，我們會在收到此信息後返回給您更新。

And then just as a follow-up that you just mentioned with respect to inflation. And you mentioned you thought that the current market would drive some activity levels lower. And I wonder if you could just characterize a little more of your outlook here, if it's just -- do you think that sort of unit cost on the service side are nearing a plateau or if maybe the activity levels were so overheated, that we could actually see services kind of give back some price right now just because of the severity of the market conditions?

然後就像你剛才提到的關於通貨膨脹的後續行動。你提到你認為當前的市場會降低一些活動水平。而且我想知道你是否可以在這裡描述更多你的前景，如果它只是 - 你認為服務方面的那種單位成本是否接近穩定或者活動水平是否過熱，我們可以實際上看到服務現在只是因為市場條件的嚴峻而回饋一些價格嗎？

Yes, it's been a hot market the last 6 months, specifically. But I think with the pullback in commodity prices, we do anticipate to see some activity reductions. You're already seeing it from what we consider the marginal producer here in the U.S. and the Haynesville. So I think in the next -- over the next few weeks, we'll have a better view on activity levels and how they're coming down. And ultimately, that should translate to lower service costs in the future, and we'll be monitoring that closely.

是的，特別是過去 6 個月，這是一個熱門市場。但我認為隨著大宗商品價格回落，我們確實預計會看到一些活動減少。你已經從我們認為的美國和海恩斯維爾的邊際生產者那裡看到了這一點。所以我認為在接下來的幾週內，我們將對活動水平及其下降方式有更好的了解。最終，這應該轉化為未來更低的服務成本，我們將密切關注這一點。

Our next question is from David Deckelbaum with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Deckelbaum 和 Cowen。

Congrats, David, best of luck in the next chapter. I was hoping to just ask when you thought about 2023 planning, you obviously envision a large ramp in the back half of the year, which I suppose is just a function of the timing of TILs. I'd like a little bit of color how you're thinking about the risks around that ramp. But also just curious how the closing timing of Tug Hills sort of informs what you're doing this year on sort of legacy EQT or core EQT, where there might have been incremental activity that would have otherwise maybe been allocated towards West Virginia.

恭喜，大衛，祝你在下一章好運。我只是想問問你什麼時候考慮 2023 年的計劃，你顯然設想在今年下半年有一個大的增長，我認為這只是 TIL 時間的函數。我想了解一下您是如何考慮該坡道周圍的風險的。但也只是好奇 Tug Hills 的關閉時間如何告訴你今年在某種遺留 EQT 或核心 EQT 上所做的事情，在那裡可能會有增量活動，否則可能會分配給西弗吉尼亞州。

Yes. As it relates to our hitting our production capacity targets by Q3, the thing we're really looking at is completion efficiencies and really stages per day, footage completed per day. And one of the slides we showed how we've gotten back to sort of historical performance levels there. So we'll be watching that, and that will really be the guiding factor on the pace of reaching that target. As it relates to the activity levels relative to Tug Hill acquisitions, we were always planning on running this activity level, and we weren't planning on changing our activities with the Tug Hill transaction that was probably going to be something that would be incorporated in '24. So we're executing sort of as we planned, and we'll adjust when that deal gets closed.

是的。由於這與我們在第三季度達到生產能力目標有關，我們真正關注的是完成效率和每天的實際階段，每天完成的鏡頭。在其中一張幻燈片中，我們展示了我們是如何回到歷史上的表現水平的。所以我們會關注這一點，這將真正成為實現該目標步伐的指導因素。由於它涉及與 Tug Hill 收購相關的活動水平，我們一直計劃運行此活動水平，並且我們不打算通過 Tug Hill 交易改變我們的活動，這可能會被納入'24。所以我們正在按照我們的計劃執行，我們會在交易結束時進行調整。

Appreciate that. And is the expectation on everything you're seeing that if this were to close, let's say, in the end of the year -- is $800 million a day, still the right production level. And I assume if it's not, there would be a purchase price adjustment?

感謝。並且你所看到的一切的期望是，如果這要關閉，比方說，在今年年底 - 每天 8 億美元，仍然是正確的生產水平。我假設如果不是，是否會有購買價格調整？

Well, yes. So the purchase price was set at midyear last year. And so any change in free cash flow effectively will lower the price each month that will -- that this takes to close. So if they change -- if they decide to change activity in the response to this marketplace, then whatever impacts to free cash flow that will benefit to us. But we don't know that they're changing activity. We do know that they did add hedges at $5 on half of their gas production to lock in that a good portion of the free cash flow. So -- and our expectation right now is that this will close midyear.

嗯，是。所以收購價定在去年年中。因此，自由現金流的任何變化都會有效地降低每個月的價格——這需要關閉。因此，如果他們改變——如果他們決定改變對這個市場的反應活動，那麼對自由現金流的任何影響都會對我們有利。但我們不知道他們正在改變活動。我們確實知道他們確實以 5 美元的價格對一半的天然氣產量進行了對沖，以鎖定很大一部分自由現金流。所以 - 我們現在的期望是這將在年中結束。

And just a quick one. Just to confirm, the only difference between your 165 corporate level breakeven this year, and your 30 view just for EQT only longer term or through, I guess, the next several years, is just the benefit of the hedges in '23, right?

只是一個快速的。只是確認一下，你今年 165 個公司盈虧平衡點與你的 30 個 EQT 的觀點之間的唯一區別只是長期或通過，我想，未來幾年，只是 23 年對沖的好處，對吧？

Correct, yes, we're just trying to show that we command a much lower gas price before we don't generate free cash flow.

正確，是的，我們只是想表明在我們不產生自由現金流之前我們要求低得多的汽油價格。

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Neal Dingmann。

First, Dave, thanks for all the time, definitely been a great help. And probably my first question is on cost, specifically. What's your comfort level with -- when you see inflation and other potential incremental pressures this year -- and just really wondering how sensitive is that to your D&C plan? You mentioned how you potentially would change D&C based on what gas price is. But I'm just wondering how does that relate to what you're thinking on costs as well.

首先，Dave，感謝您一直以來的幫助，這絕對是一個很大的幫助。可能我的第一個問題是關於成本的，特別是。當您看到今年的通貨膨脹和其他潛在的增量壓力時，您的舒適度是多少，並且真的想知道這對您的 D&C 計劃有多敏感？你提到了你可能會如何根據 gas 價格來改變 D&C。但我只是想知道這與您對成本的考慮有何關係。

Yes. When you look at the sensitivity that you got to look at is what percentage of services we have locked in and what exposure do we have to the spot market. Looking at the big picture items from rigs and frac crews, those are locked in. We have about 100 frac days that would show up in the back half of this year that we're looking to procure. So there's a little bit of exposure there to spot, but we're planning for it -- and we've got some time to see how the market shakes out before that. On steel, which is another big item for us, we're pretty good from a procurement perspective through the first half of this year. And we think that the steel markets hopefully are showing some signs of loosening there on price.

是的。當您查看敏感度時，您必須查看我們鎖定的服務百分比以及我們對現貨市場的敞口。從鑽井平台和壓裂工作人員那裡看大圖，這些都被鎖定了。我們有大約 100 個壓裂日將在今年下半年出現，我們正在尋求採購。因此，那裡有一些暴露點，但我們正在為此做計劃——我們有時間看看市場在此之前是如何動搖的。在鋼鐵方面，這對我們來說是另一個大項目，從今年上半年的採購角度來看，我們相當不錯。我們認為鋼鐵市場有望在價格上顯示出一些放鬆的跡象。

So I feel like we're positioned there to procure the rest and hopefully, a better service price environment for steel. And then as far as sand and water is concerned, those are largely locked in and feel good.

所以我覺得我們可以在那裡採購其餘的，並希望為鋼鐵提供更好的服務價格環境。然後就沙子和水而言，它們在很大程度上被鎖定並且感覺良好。

One thing I'd say about sand, that's important to note because that's something that has really been backers in other parts of the country. Appalachia, the large part of the sand that we procure is not -- is in a different market than what people are seeing in basin sand in the Permian. A lot of the sand that we're getting is coming from Wisconsin, Northern White. So it's a little bit it's not -- hasn't been as exposed as much service price inflation as other places in the country. So that's sort of how we see the service cost sensitivities and feel like we're in a good position and can be flexible and hopefully take advantage of a better service cost environment in the second half of this year.

關於沙子，我要說的一件事很重要，因為它在該國其他地區確實得到了支持。阿巴拉契亞，我們採購的大部分沙子都不是——與人們在二疊紀的盆地砂中看到的市場不同。我們得到的很多沙子來自北懷特的威斯康星州。所以它有點不是 - 沒有像該國其他地方那樣受到服務價格上漲的影響。因此，這就是我們如何看待服務成本敏感性，感覺我們處於有利地位並且可以靈活，並希望在今年下半年利用更好的服務成本環境。

Yes, definitely, it seems like the Appalachia guys are in better price or better area there. And just maybe lastly, just on housekeeping. I'm just wondering -- you mentioned about the $50 million adjustment per month color on the purchase price for the adjusted to included in Tug Hill. I'm just wondering, is that included in the Tug Hill hedges? Or is that incremental?

是的，當然，似乎阿巴拉契亞地區的價格或地區更好。也許最後，只是關於客房服務。我只是想知道——你提到了 Tug Hill 中包含的調整後購買價格每月 5000 萬美元的顏色調整。我只是想知道，這是否包括在 Tug Hill 樹籬中？還是增量？

The $50 million, is that what you just said?

5000萬美元，是你剛才說的嗎？

Yes. You mentioned about isn't there -- with that, you mentioned that $50 million per month regarding the purchase price adjustment, I'm just wondering, is that included in the Tug Hill hedges? Or is that incremental?

是的。你提到的不存在——你提到每月 5000 萬美元的購買價格調整，我只是想知道，這是否包括在 Tug Hill 的對沖中？還是增量？

Well, so I think in the first 6 months of last -- so last year, we basically believed it was -- probably generated about $300 million to $350 million of excess free cash flow that would lower the purchase price. Roughly half of it goes to cash. Half of it goes to reducing the share count. And so with their hedges, if you thought the free cash flow still trends along that same pace, you might have, we'll call somewhere in that same vicinity in the second half of the year. So you could -- maybe you talk about 600 plus of purchase price adjustments that will help lower that purchase price. So the hedges will just solidify that.

好吧，所以我認為在去年的前 6 個月 - 所以去年，我們基本上相信它 - 可能產生大約 3 億至 3.5 億美元的超額自由現金流，這將降低購買價格。其中大約一半用於現金。其中一半用於減少股票數量。因此，對於他們的對沖，如果你認為自由現金流仍以同樣的速度趨勢，你可能會在今年下半年打電話給同一附近的某個地方。所以你可以——也許你談論 600 多項有助於降低購買價格的購買價格調整。所以對沖只會鞏固這一點。

The next question comes from Roger Read of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Roger Read。

Yes. Just one quick question probably for you, Toby. Just on -- as you think about gas prices, do you think in the end, it's more about the absolute decline risk in gas prices? Or do you think it's going to be more about duration of, let's just say, something below the average breakevens out there that ultimately forces activity and production lower and then maybe creates a little headroom for you on service costs by the latter part of this year.

是的。托比，可能只有一個簡短的問題要問你。只是——當你考慮天然氣價格時，你認為最終更多的是天然氣價格的絕對下降風險嗎？或者你認為這將更多地是關於持續時間，比方說，低於平均盈虧平衡點的東西最終會迫使活動和生產降低，然後可能會在今年下半年為你的服務成本創造一點空間.

Yes. I think there's a couple of things that are happening from an activity level, as these mature basins -- or the shale plays continue to mature, the amount of activity levels will lower over time that should have an impact on lowering service costs. But also the other thing that's taking place is the breakevens in the United States is rising as operators are moving to Tier 2 geology and both in geography and also in the zones that they're completing. That will have the impact of increasing the marginal breakeven price of gas. That will help solidify price.

是的。我認為在活動水平上發生了幾件事，隨著這些成熟的盆地 - 或者頁岩油田繼續成熟，活動水平的數量會隨著時間的推移而降低，這應該會對降低服務成本產生影響。但另一件正在發生的事情是，隨著運營商轉向二級地質，無論是在地理上還是在他們正在完成的區域，美國的收支平衡正在上升。這將提高天然氣的邊際盈虧平衡價格。這將有助於鞏固價格。

The other thing I'd say is, as far as duration is concerned, I mean the one thing that we're seeing is the call for cheap reliable clean energy. And if we learned one thing in 2022, looking what happened in Ukraine and Russia, the lesson learned there is energy security matters. And without energy security, you cannot transition. Europe has gone backwards on their emissions targets because of the lack of energy security. And the most important takeaway from all of this is where did Europe turn for energy security. They turn to natural gas. And so we think that the call for this product is only going to strengthen over time because natural gas is the key to providing energy security to Americans in the world.

我要說的另一件事是，就持續時間而言，我的意思是我們看到的一件事是對廉價可靠清潔能源的需求。如果我們在 2022 年學到一件事，看看烏克蘭和俄羅斯發生的事情，就會發現能源安全問題。沒有能源安全，就無法轉型。由於缺乏能源安全，歐洲在排放目標上倒退了。所有這一切最重要的收穫是歐洲在能源安全方面轉向了哪裡。他們轉向天然氣。因此我們認為，隨著時間的推移，對這種產品的呼聲只會越來越高，因為天然氣是為世界各地的美國人提供能源安全的關鍵。

Our next question is from John Abbott with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Abbott。

Dave, thanks from all of the entire Bank of America team who wants to echo best your best wishes in your next chapter. Our first question is going to be on the Tug Hill and XcL Midstream acquisitions. So when you look at -- so the guidance that you provided back in September of last year and when you sort of think about these acquisitions potentially closing in the middle of this year. First, is the Midstream spend that you laid out in September still on track at XcL? And then second, how does your current thoughts on the potential impact of the breakeven include updated thoughts on inflation heading into this year.

戴夫，感謝所有美國銀行團隊，他們希望在你的下一章中表達你最美好的祝愿。我們的第一個問題是關於 Tug Hill 和 XcL Midstream 的收購。因此，當您查看 - 所以您在去年 9 月提供的指導以及當您考慮這些收購可能在今年年中完成時。首先，您在 9 月份制定的中游支出是否仍在 XcL 的軌道上？其次，您目前對收支平衡的潛在影響的想法如何包括對今年通貨膨脹的最新想法。

So you take the second. I'll take the first. Okay. Go ahead.

所以你選擇第二個。我要第一個。好的。前進。

So as far as -- what was the second part of the question there?

那麼問題的第二部分是什麼？

Inflation into our breakeven.

通貨膨脹使我們的收支平衡。

Yes. So I mean, the key thing with Tug Hill and the reason why those assets had such a low breakeven cost, was really due to the fact that they own their midstream and also the liquids percentage of their program that they're running there. So yes, they're going to be pay with inflation like every other operator and we'll recast what that looks like from a CapEx perspective. The one thing I'd say is these are pretty high-quality assets. So the activity levels needed to maintain production will mitigate some of the service cost inflation effects. But hopefully, by the time we take over, we've seen a little bit more balance come from service costs.

是的。所以我的意思是，Tug Hill 的關鍵問題以及這些資產收支平衡成本如此低的原因，實際上是因為他們擁有中游以及他們在那裡運行的項目的流動性百分比。所以是的，他們將像其他所有運營商一樣通過通貨膨脹支付費用，我們將從資本支出的角度重塑它的樣子。我要說的一件事是這些都是非常優質的資產。因此，維持生產所需的活動水平將減輕一些服務成本通脹的影響。但希望在我們接手時，我們已經看到服務成本的平衡有所增加。

Yes. And then even incorporate -- if you look at our long-term breakevens that we give you, that does incorporate some inflation embedded in there. So that does -- and then as far as the midstream projects are concerned, some of those projects we were working on together pre this M&A and some of those projects will absolutely continue through. As far as the rest, I think we'd have to wait and see until this closes to get an update from Tug Hill on that.

是的。然後甚至合併——如果你看看我們給你的長期盈虧平衡，那確實包含了一些嵌入其中的通貨膨脹。確實如此 - 然後就中游項目而言，我們在此次併購之前共同開展的一些項目，其中一些項目絕對會繼續進行。至於其餘的，我認為我們必須等到關閉才能從 Tug Hill 那裡獲得最新消息。

Appreciate it. And then our second question is sort of on the natural gas macro. Despite spot weakness, the forward curve is about 50% above year-ago levels with former storage, albeit after losing Freeport exports. What do you think is going on?

欣賞它。然後我們的第二個問題是關於天然氣宏觀的。儘管現貨疲軟，但遠期曲線比去年同期水平高出約 50%，之前的存儲量是在失去自由港出口之後。你認為這是怎麼回事？

I mean you have basically an oversupplied market heading into in and I'll call very modest oversupply in '24. And then you've literally had Freeport and weather not show up, knocking the front end of the curve down and caused the modest oversupply increase. And so it's basically sending a signal to the producers start to cut production because pricing is forcing your activity off-line. So and it's also going to send demand up. And so it's going to create a reaction to try to get to that balanced market, which you're going to see from a combination of supply coming off or supply growth slowing, which will probably end up being about a B a day of impact.

我的意思是你基本上進入了一個供過於求的市場，我將在 24 年稱之為非常適度的供過於求。然後你真的有自由港和天氣沒有出現，將曲線的前端推低並導致適度的供過於求增加。因此，它基本上向生產商發出開始減產的信號，因為定價迫使您的活動離線。因此，它也會增加需求。因此，它會產生一種反應，試圖進入那個平衡的市場，你將從供應減少或供應增長放緩的組合中看到，這可能最終會產生大約每天 B 的影響。

You'll also see about an incremental B plus of demand being forced back into the system between power from coal going away in the stack and then also industrial demand coming online. So those will be the things that will balance the market and if it doesn't happen sooner, it will happen, it will take longer. That means that the rest of the '23 curve will come down some, and that will cause quicker reaction, the later action. So it will get there, and that's what the pricing signal always does.

您還會看到，在來自堆棧中的煤炭發電和工業需求上線之間，增量 B 加的需求被迫返回系統。所以這些將是平衡市場的事情，如果它不早點發生，它會發生，需要更長的時間。這意味著 23 年曲線的其餘部分將下降一些，這將導致更快的反應，更晚的行動。所以它會到達那裡，這就是定價信號總是做的。

Our next question comes from Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

我們的下一個問題來自 Noel Parks 和 Tuohy Brothers。

A few things. Wondering, in the reserves, did you experience any upward revisions on type curves, either just from general efficiency or anything you'd be able to see from your redesign?

一些東西。想知道，在儲備中，您是否經歷過類型曲線的任何向上修正，無論是來自一般效率還是您可以從重新設計中看到的任何東西？

Yes. So the type curve revisions resulted in an increase of about 350 Bcf and that's sort of what we're referring to when we said performance revisions. So we have seen an increase to performance, didn't bake in anything on the science work that we're doing. It's just too early to factor that in.

是的。因此，類型曲線修訂導致了大約 350 Bcf 的增加，這就是我們所說的性能修訂時所指的內容。所以我們看到了性能的提高，並沒有影響我們正在進行的科學工作。現在考慮這個因素還為時過早。

Yes. You need to have more historical information for Netherlands tool to be comfortable with us booking any uplift in type person. That's probably more of a, we'll call it, '24 and beyond kind of benefit.

是的。您需要了解荷蘭工具的更多歷史信息，以便我們輕鬆預訂任何類型的人。這可能更像是一種，我們稱之為“24 歲及以上”的好處。

Yes. And I hope that investors look at this with a theme that you're starting to see around this industry where well performance is sort of degrading across industry to be assured to see that our high-quality assets are translating to dependable performance, and you're seeing positive improvements in the well results that we're putting out, I think, is -- should be very reassuring for investors.

是的。我希望投資者以一個你開始在這個行業看到的主題來看待這個問題，在這個主題中，整個行業的表現都在下降，以確保我們的高質量資產正在轉化為可靠的表現，而你我認為，重新看到我們正在推出的油井結果的積極改善應該讓投資者感到非常安心。

Great. And I just wanted to, at this point, looking ahead to services, of course, totally curious about what the service response is going to be if we do see activity continuing to head down. But just sort of as a reference point, when is your next significant renegotiation ahead either on the rig side or the frac side?

偉大的。在這一點上，我只是想展望服務，當然，如果我們確實看到活動繼續下降，服務響應將會如何。但只是作為參考點，你的下一次重大重新談判是什麼時候在鑽機方面或壓裂方面？

Yes. So rigs were good through the end of the year with the frac crews, two out of the three frac crews or -- sorry, we have two out of three frac crews locked up. We've got a frac crew that will be joining sort of middle part of this year that we're currently under negotiations for right now. So I'd say probably that's the biggest big resource we have that we're working on. And as I mentioned, steel is the other big factor, which we'll cover through the first half of this year, and we'll continue to work through that. pressure for the second half.

是的。因此，到今年年底，鑽井平台與壓裂船員的情況都很好，三分之二的壓裂船員或者 - 抱歉，我們有三分之二的壓裂船員被鎖定。我們有一個壓裂團隊，他們將在今年中旬加入我們目前正在談判的部分。所以我想說這可能是我們正在努力的最大的資源。正如我提到的，鋼鐵是另一個重要因素，我們將在今年上半年討論這個問題，我們將繼續努力解決這個問題。下半場的壓力。

Okay. Great. And just one more. Thinking about the Tug Hill acquisition, once that closes, can you just give a rough sense of maybe how many quarters of sort of deal-related onetime impact we might have on G&A and when G&A might get back to more of a steady state on a unit basis after the close.

好的。偉大的。還有一個。考慮到 Tug Hill 的收購，一旦收購完成，您能否粗略地了解我們可能對 G&A 產生多少季度的交易相關的一次性影響，以及 G&A 何時可能恢復到更穩定的狀態？收盤後的單位基礎。

Sure. So right now, we're dealing with extra G&A tied to the FTC and it will pull an unclosed process. So if we were to effectively close by midyear, I would say probably the last of what we would deal with is most likely all hitting at the end of the second quarter. It could some hit in the third quarter. But I would say that's probably your best bet from what we know right now.

當然。所以現在，我們正在處理與 FTC 相關的額外 G&A，這將拉動一個未關閉的流程。因此，如果我們要在年中之前有效關閉，我想說我們要處理的最後一個問題很可能會在第二季度末全部發生。它可能會在第三季度受到打擊。但我想說，根據我們目前所知，這可能是您最好的選擇。

Our next question is from Paul Diamond with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Paul Diamond。

Perfect just a quick question for you on 2023 guidance. The numbers give you some optionality around some growth versus some reductions just wanted to kind of get you guys sensed on the strategy. And should we be thinking about that linearly with pricing? Or is it more -- or is there kind of bogey more on the high side and then it will step change if pricing drops below a certain level?

就 2023 年指南向您提出一個簡短的問題就完美了。這些數字為您提供了一些增長的選擇權，而不是一些減少的選擇，只是想讓你們對戰略有所了解。我們是否應該考慮與定價線性相關的問題？還是更多——或者在偏高的地方有更多的忌諱，然後如果價格下降到一定水平以下，它會逐步改變嗎？

Yes. So it will be a combination of pricing and duration and thinking about when we spend money and start to produce it's not going to all come out in one quarter. It's going to be over probably a 2-, 3-year period that matters from a returns perspective. So we'll look at the forward curve and we'll look at the drop and we'll try to anticipate what we think the impact will be. And so we'll model out. And so it will be a game-time decision. We're not going to make a decision today, but it's going to be price and duration that will drive it.

是的。因此，這將是定價和持續時間的結合，並且考慮我們何時花錢並開始生產它不會在一個季度內全部出來。從回報的角度來看，這可能會超過 2 年、3 年的時間。因此，我們將研究遠期曲線，研究下降趨勢，並嘗試預測我們認為會產生的影響。所以我們會模擬出來。所以這將是一個遊戲時間的決定。我們今天不會做出決定，但推動它的將是價格和持續時間。

Okay. Understood. And just one quick follow-up. As we kind of move to a more long-term supportive fundamentals of $24 million and $25 million has there been any shift in kind of your priorities from Southwest PA versus the Northeast versus West Virginia? Or is that still kind of -- Southwest PA is still pretty much the kind of the front runner as far as priorities go?

好的。明白了。並且只是一個快速跟進。隨著我們轉向更長期的支持性基本面 2400 萬美元和 2500 萬美元，您的優先事項從賓夕法尼亞州西南部、東北部和西弗吉尼亞州有什麼變化嗎？或者，就優先事項而言，西南賓夕法尼亞州仍然是領跑者嗎？

Yes. I mean, our schedule is designed to develop the best rate of returns sooner. So that mix is sort of set. And what you see here for this year is probably going to continue into the future. So that's sort of how we have our schedule laid out. And also the surface impacts and where we can do combos, longer lateral lengths, more wells per combo is another factor that could move to factor into the schedule.

是的。我的意思是，我們的時間表旨在更快地實現最佳回報率。所以這種組合有點固定。你在這裡看到的今年可能會持續到未來。這就是我們安排日程的方式。還有地表影響以及我們可以在哪裡進行組合、更長的橫向長度、每個組合更多的井是另一個可以考慮到時間表中的因素。

Understood. Congratulations, Dave.

明白了。恭喜你，戴夫。

There are no further questions. I'll pass the call back over to the management team for closing remarks.

沒有其他問題了。我會將電話轉回給管理團隊，讓他們發表結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for your time today. Certainly, a lot of volatility in these environments. I think it's a really good time for people to look at the differentiation that exists within the energy space. And I think the work that we've done at EQT really is showing up here, even in a downside scenario, we've built a bunsiness that still is going to generate double-digit free cash flow yields. And with our low cost structure, we'll be able to and look to a very promising future for natural gas and EQT. So we'll continue to work and our employees here at EQT are going to be really focused on delivering peak performance in 2023. So thanks for your time.

謝謝大家今天的時間。當然，這些環境中的波動性很大。我認為現在是人們審視能量空間內存在差異的好時機。而且我認為我們在 EQT 所做的工作確實在這裡出現了，即使在不利的情況下，我們已經建立了一個仍然會產生兩位數自由現金流收益率的企業。憑藉我們的低成本結構，我們將能夠並展望天然氣和 EQT 非常有前途的未來。因此，我們將繼續工作，我們在 EQT 的員工將真正專注於在 2023 年實現最佳績效。感謝您的寶貴時間。

That concludes the conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。