EQT Corp (EQT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. I would like to welcome everyone to EQT Q2 2025 quarterly results conference call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。歡迎大家參加 EQT 2025 年第二季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Cameron Horwitz, Managing Director, Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead.

謝謝。現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係和策略董事總經理卡梅倫·霍維茨 (Cameron Horwitz)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our second-quarter 2025 earnings results conference call. With me today are Toby Rice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeremy Knop, Chief Financial Officer.

早安，感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起的有總裁兼執行長 Toby Rice 和財務長 Jeremy Knop。

In a moment, Toby and Jeremy will present their prepared remarks, with a question-and-answer session to follow. An updated investor presentation has been posted to the Investor Relations portion of our website, and we will reference certain slides during today's discussion. A replay of today's call will be available on our website beginning this evening.

稍後，托比和傑里米將發表準備好的發言，隨後進行問答環節。更新後的投資者介紹已發佈到我們網站的投資者關係部分，我們將在今天的討論中參考某些幻燈片。今天晚上開始，我們的網站將提供今天電話會議的重播。

I'd like to remind you that today's call may contain forward-looking statements. Actual results and future events could materially differ from these forward-looking statements because of factors described in yesterday's earnings release, in our investor presentation, the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, and in subsequent filings we make with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.

我想提醒您，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述。由於昨天的收益報告、我們的投資者介紹、我們最新的 10-K 表和 10-Q 表的風險因素部分以及我們隨後向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所描述的因素，實際結果和未來事件可能與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's call also contains certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our most recent earnings release and investor presentation for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures.

今天的電話會議也包含某些非公認會計準則財務指標。請參閱我們最新的收益報告和投資者介紹，以了解有關此類指標的重要揭露，包括與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的調整。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Toby.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給托比。

Thanks, Cam, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Cam，大家早安。

Second-quarter results continue to showcase strong momentum at EQT. Production was at the high end of guidance, benefiting from robust well productivity and outperformance from compression projects. Year to date, our compression program is ahead of schedule, below budget, and driving production uplift well above expectations, showcasing continued synergy capture from the Equitrans acquisition.

第二季業績持續展現出 EQT 的強勁勢頭。得益於強勁的油井產能和壓縮專案的優異表現，產量處於預期的高點。今年迄今為止，我們的壓縮計畫已提前完成、低於預算，並推動產量提升遠超預期，展現出收購 Equitrans 後持續產生的協同效應。

Capital spending came in approximately $50 million below the low end of guidance, driven by midstream spending optimization, continued improvements in completion efficiency, and lower well costs. Our team set a new EQT record for completed footage per day during the quarter, and we believe there is still significant room for additional improvement.

資本支出比指導值低約 5,000 萬美元，這得益於中游支出優化、完井效率的持續提高以及油井成本的降低。我們的團隊在本季度創下了每日完成鏡頭數量的新 EQT 記錄，我們相信仍有很大改進空間。

This strong performance resulted in approximately $240 million of Q2 free cash flow attributable to EQT, despite $134 million of net expense incurred relating to a litigation settlement that resolves outstanding securities class action litigation. We view this settlement as a positive step forward for EQT, as it resolves remaining meaningful legacy liabilities inherited by current management.

儘管因解決未決證券集體訴訟的訴訟和解而產生了 1.34 億美元的淨費用，但這一強勁表現仍為 EQT 帶來了約 2.4 億美元的第二季度自由現金流。我們認為此次和解對 EQT 而言是向前邁出的積極一步，因為它解決了現任管理層繼承的剩餘重大遺留債務。

Without this legal expense, second-quarter free cash flow attributable to EQT would have totaled approximately $375 million, materially exceeding expectations. To put into perspective, cumulative free cash flow generation totaled nearly $2 billion over the past three quarters, despite natural gas prices averaging just $3.30 per million Btu over this period, highlighting the differentiated earnings power of EQT's low-cost platform.

若不計入這筆法律費用，第二季歸屬於 EQT 的自由現金流總計約為 3.75 億美元，大大超出預期。具體來說，儘管過去三個季度天然氣平均價格僅為每百萬英熱單位 3.30 美元，但累計自由現金流總額已接近 20 億美元，凸顯了 EQT 低成本平台的差異化盈利能力。

Shifting gears, we close in our acquisition of Olympus Energy on July 1, funding the deal with $475 million of cash on hand, plus the issuance of approximately 25.2 million shares after purchase price adjustments. Recall, the assets comprise a vertically integrated, contiguous 90,000 net acre position, offsetting EQT's acreage in Southwest Appalachia, with 500 million cubic feet per day of net production and over a decade of core Marcellus inventory, along with significant upside optionality from the Deep Utica. The teams are off to a fast start integrating the assets, and we expect to have the bulk of operational integration items complete within the next 30 days. We also see the opportunity to organically bolt on low-cost acreage around the Olympus assets, which could materially expand inventory duration in this area.

換個角度來說，我們於 7 月 1 日完成了對 Olympus Energy 的收購，以 4.75 億美元現金以及調整收購價格後發行的約 2520 萬股股票為該交易提供資金。回想一下，這些資產包括垂直整合的、連續的 90,000 淨英畝土地，抵消了 EQT 在西南阿巴拉契亞地區的土地面積，擁有每天 5 億立方英尺的淨產量和超過十年的核心 Marcellus 庫存，以及來自 Deep Utica 的顯著上行選擇權。團隊正在快速開始整合資產，我們預計大部分營運整合專案將在未來 30 天內完成。我們還看到了在奧林巴斯資產周圍有機地增加低成本土地的機會，這可以大大延長該地區的庫存持續時間。

Turning to strategic growth opportunities. As discussed over the past several quarters, we have cultivated a significant pipeline of low-risk, high-return projects that should drive sustainable growth for our midstream and upstream businesses in the years ahead. Several of these projects recently crossed significant milestones, thus derisking the path to value creation.

轉向策略成長機會。正如過去幾季所討論的那樣，我們已經培育了一批低風險、高回報的項目，這些項目將在未來幾年推動我們的中游和上游業務的可持續成長。其中一些項目最近跨越了重要的里程碑，從而降低了價值創造之路的風險。

First, we are concluding the open season of our MVP Boost project, which is set to add 180,000 horsepower of compression to the MVP mainline and increase capacity from 2 to 2.5 Bcf per day. This project will provide additional takeaway from Appalachia into Virginia to serve the Southeast markets, unleashing reliable, low-cost, low-emissions natural gas into a region that is seeing significant demand growth. As a result of strong project momentum, we have elected to jumpstart long lead time orders this year in order to derisk the MVP Boost construction timeline.

首先，我們即將結束 MVP Boost 計畫的開放期，將為 MVP 主線增加 18 萬匹馬力的壓縮能力，並將日產能從 20 億立方英尺提高到 25 億立方英尺。該計畫將把阿巴拉契亞山脈的額外天然氣輸送到維吉尼亞州，以滿足東南市場的需求，為需求大幅成長的地區提供可靠、低成本、低排放的天然氣。由於專案勢頭強勁，我們選擇今年啟動長交貨期訂單，以降低 MVP Boost 建設時間表的風險。

We are also continuing to advance the MVP Southgate project and expect to receive the FERC environmental assessment in October of this year. MVP Southgate will provide 550 million cubic feet per day of capacity from MVP mainline into the Carolinas, serving anchor customers Duke Energy and the public service company of North Carolina. This project will significantly enhance the reliability of natural gas delivery into this key growth market, reducing energy costs for consumers and support the replacement of coal. MVP Southgate and MVP Boost are projected to begin service in 2028 and in 2029, respectively, following the anticipated commencement of the Transco Southeast supply expansion.

我們也持續推動MVP Southgate項目，預計今年10月獲得FERC環境評估。MVP Southgate 每天將從 MVP 主線向卡羅來納州提供 5.5 億立方英尺的輸氣量，為主要客戶杜克能源和北卡羅來納州的公共服務公司提供服務。該項目將顯著提高向這一關鍵成長市場輸送天然氣的可靠性，降低消費者的能源成本並支持煤炭替代。隨著 Transco Southeast 供應擴建工程的啟動，MVP Southgate 和 MVP Boost 預計將分別於 2028 年和 2029 年開始投入使用。

Additionally, we are working to finalize our 20-year definitive agreement with the Frontier Group of Companies to provide long-term natural gas supply for the Shippingport Industrial Park project northwest of Pittsburgh. The project will convert a retired coal power plant into a large-scale 3.6-gigawatt natural gas power generation facility with peak natural gas consumption of approximately 800 million cubic feet per day. The project has secured a partner to build a co-located data center facility to support AI infrastructure and contemplate several phases of development beginning in 2027 and ramping through 2028, providing significant upstream growth optionality for EQT to meet increasing demand.

此外，我們正在努力與 Frontier 集團公司達成為期 20 年的最終協議，為匹茲堡西北部的 Shippingport 工業園區計畫提供長期天然氣供應。該計畫將把一座退役的燃煤電廠改造成一座大型3.6千兆瓦的天然氣發電設施，天然氣尖峰消耗量約為每天8億立方英尺。該專案已找到合作夥伴，共同建造一個資料中心設施來支援人工智慧基礎設施，並計劃從 2027 年開始分幾個階段進行開發，一直持續到 2028 年，為 EQT 提供重要的上游成長選擇，以滿足日益增長的需求。

We are also working to finalize our 20-year definitive agreement with Homer City Redevelopment to build midstream pipeline infrastructure and be the project's exclusive supplier of natural gas. Once completed, Homer City will be the largest natural gas power plant ever built in North America, with an existing grid interconnection for added reliability to support AI data center loads across its 3,200-acre campus. The facility will consist of seven new gas turbines powered by 665 million cubic feet per day of EQT's low-emissions natural gas. We plan to leverage our newly acquired Olympus assets to supply the facility as it ramps up before reaching peak capacity in late 2028.

我們也正在努力與荷馬城重建公司達成為期 20 年的最終協議，以建造中游管道基礎設施並成為該項目的獨家天然氣供應商。一旦建成，荷馬城將成為北美有史以來最大的天然氣發電廠，並利用現有的電網互連來提高可靠性，以支援其佔地 3,200 英畝的園區內的人工智慧資料中心負載。該設施將由七台新的燃氣渦輪機組成，每天由 EQT 的 6.65 億立方英尺低排放天然氣提供動力。我們計劃利用新收購的奧林巴斯資產為該工廠提供供應，直到 2028 年底達到高峰產能。

Additionally, we signed an agreement to build midstream infrastructure serving a new 610-megawatt combined cycle natural gas power plant in West Virginia, with gas demand of approximately 100 million cubic feet per day that will serve the PJM market. This project is poised to be the state's first large-scale gas-fired power plant and is being developed by a global investment-grade power company in partnership with a marquee private equity sponsor. In-service for the project is expected in 2028, and the commercial structure includes a 10-year term with recontracting optionality.

此外，我們還簽署了一項協議，為西維吉尼亞州一座新的 610 兆瓦聯合循環天然氣發電廠建設中游基礎設施，該發電廠的天然氣需求量約為每天 1 億立方英尺，將服務於 PJM 市場。該項目將成為該州首個大型燃氣發電廠，由一家全球投資級電力公司與知名私募股權贊助商合作開發。該專案預計於 2028 年投入使用，商業結構包括 10 年期限，可選擇續約。

We also secured a new gathering contract with a large private producer to expand capacity on our Saturn pipeline system in West Virginia. This project is expected to be in service in 2027 with a 10-year initial term and is backed by attractive minimum volume commitments. This opportunity highlights success with our strategic initiative to grow Equitrans' third-party business, which further lowers EQT's free cash flow breakeven by driving stable fee-based revenue growth.

我們還與一家大型私人生產商簽訂了新的收集合同，以擴大我們位於西維吉尼亞州的 Saturn 管道系統的產能。該項目預計將於 2027 年投入使用，初始期限為 10 年，並具有具有吸引力的最低數量承諾作為後盾。此次機會凸顯了我們發展 Equitrans 第三方業務的策略性舉措的成功，透過推動穩定的基於費用的收入成長，進一步降低了 EQT 的自由現金流盈虧平衡點。

Collectively, these projects represent a pipeline of nearly $1 billion of organic investment opportunity with premium low-risk supply agreements which we estimate will generate an aggregate free cash flow yield of approximately 25% once fully online. This is particularly noteworthy given the relatively low-risk annuity-like cash flow streams from the infrastructure components of these projects, which are underpinned by the deepest, highest-quality natural gas resource in the United States.

總的來說，這些項目代表著近 10 億美元的有機投資機會，並擁有優質的低風險供應協議，我們估計，這些項目一旦全面上線，將產生約 25% 的總自由現金流收益率。鑑於這些項目的基礎設施部分產生的現金流風險相對較低，類似年金，且以美國最深、品質最高的天然氣資源為基礎，這一點尤其值得注意。

Further, this free cash flow yield is prior to any potential benefits from local basis improvement and the upstream growth optionality created by these projects. The Shippingport and Homer City facilities, the West Virginia power plant, the increase in MVP utilization, plus the MVP Boost expansion, represent new Appalachian gas demand of nearly 3 Bcf per day. This demand will be served in large part by EQT volumes flowing predominantly through EQT infrastructure, underscoring the differentiated growth opportunity for EQT.

此外，這種自由現金流收益率優先於當地基礎改善和這些項目創造的上游成長選擇性所帶來的任何潛在利益。西維吉尼亞州 Shippingport 和 Homer City 設施、MVP 利用率的提高以及 MVP Boost 擴建意味著阿巴拉契亞天然氣需求將每天增加近 30 億立方英尺。這項需求將在很大程度上透過主要流經 EQT 基礎設施的 EQT 流量來滿足，這凸顯了 EQT 的差異化成長機會。

Through our integrated platform, we are demonstrating what responsible, sustainable growth looks like for oil and gas companies. This means partnering with end users to enable new demand, then meeting that demand with supply backed by firm contracts rather than simply chasing commodity price signals. This tremendous opportunity is unique to EQT, enabled by the past five years of strategic work transforming our business and highlights what is possible when you have the combination of a low-cost structure, scale, integrated high-quality infrastructure, a multi-decade core inventory, and investment-grade credit ratings.

透過我們的綜合平台，我們展示了石油和天然氣公司負責任、可持續的成長。這意味著與最終用戶合作來創造新的需求，然後透過有固定合約支援的供應來滿足該需求，而不是簡單地追逐商品價格訊號。這一巨大的機會對於 EQT 來說是獨一無二的，它得益於過去五年來我們為實現業務轉型所開展的戰略工作，並凸顯了低成本結構、規模、一體化高品質基礎設施、數十年的核心庫存和投資級信用評級相結合所能帶來的潛力。

As we highlighted last quarter, the next leg of our corporate strategy is built on the dual pillars of reducing cash flow risk and creating pathways for sustainable cash flow growth. And these projects represent a tangible step forward in executing that strategy.

正如我們上個季度所強調的那樣，我們公司策略的下一階段建立在降低現金流風險和創造可持續現金流成長途徑的雙重支柱之上。這些項目代表著我們在執行這項策略方面邁出了切實的一步。

I also want to give a special thank you to our leadership in the state of Pennsylvania, Senator McCormick and Governor Shapiro, as well as the administration in Washington, for taking bold steps to unlock the vast economic potential of the region and shining a spotlight on the massive opportunity for technology and AI to prosper in the Pittsburgh area. As we have demonstrated, EQT is ready to do its part and deliver affordable, reliable, and low-carbon energy to power this growth.

我還要特別感謝賓州的領導階層、參議員麥考密克和州長夏皮羅以及華盛頓的政府，他們採取大膽措施釋放該地區巨大的經濟潛力，並重點關注匹茲堡地區技術和人工智慧繁榮發展的巨大機會。正如我們所展示的，EQT 已準備好盡自己的一份力量，提供價格合理、可靠、低碳的能源來推動這一成長。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeremy.

現在，我將把電話交給傑里米。

Thanks, Toby.

謝謝，托比。

Our strong second-quarter results and free cash flow generation drove continued deleveraging of our balance sheet. We exited the quarter with $7.8 billion of net debt, down approximately $350 million compared to Q1 and marking nearly $6 billion of debt reduction over the past three quarters.

我們強勁的第二季業績和自由現金流產生推動了我們資產負債表的持續去槓桿化。本季末我們的淨債務為 78 億美元，與第一季相比減少了約 3.5 億美元，過去三個季度的債務減少了近 60 億美元。

The recent closing of the Olympus transaction accelerates our deleveraging plan and enhances our debt to free cash flow metrics. Pro forma the transaction, we remain on track to achieve our year-end 2025 net debt target of $7.5 billion. Over the medium to long term, we plan to operate with a maximum of $5 billion of net debt, which is roughly three times free cash flow before strategic growth CapEx at a $275 natural gas price.

奧林巴斯交易的近期完成加速了我們的去槓桿計劃，並提高了我們的債務與自由現金流指標。根據交易預測，我們仍有望實現 2025 年底 75 億美元的淨債務目標。從中長期來看，我們計劃以最多 50 億美元的淨債務運營，這大約是天然氣價格為 275 美元時戰略增長資本支出前的自由現金流的三倍。

As a result, we will continue to focus on debt paydown even after achieving this near-term $7.5 billion target. In higher parts of the commodity cycle, we plan to accumulate cash on the balance sheet and drive net debt well below $5 billion, creating significant flexibility for counter cyclical buybacks and to build capacity for high confidence reinvestment and growth even during the low parts of the commodity cycle.

因此，即使在實現近期 75 億美元的目標之後，我們仍將繼續專注於償還債務。在大宗商品週期的較高階段，我們計劃在資產負債表上累積現金，並將淨債務控制在 50 億美元以下，為逆週期回購創造極大的靈活性，並即使在大宗商品週期的低谷階段也能建立高信心再投資和增長的能力。

Turning to our recently announced pipeline of growth projects. We expect these projects to create a collective growth CapEx opportunity of approximately $1 billion over the next several years. And we expect to begin spending capital on associated infrastructure in 2026, with investments spaced out over a multi-year period.

談到我們最近宣布的成長項目。我們預計這些項目將在未來幾年創造約 10 億美元的集體成長資本支出機會。我們預計將於 2026 年開始對相關基礎設施進行投資，投資將分多年進行。

We structured the two data center projects as index-plus style deals on fixed volume commitments, similar to our existing contracts with the Southeastern utilities. These contracts give us confidence in leaning into moderate, midstream, and upstream growth due to the lower risk nature of these agreements.

我們將這兩個資料中心項目建構成固定交易量承諾的指數加式交易，類似於我們與東南公用事業公司簽訂的現有合約。由於這些合約的風險較低，我們有信心實現中等、中游和上游的成長。

Similarly, the midstream growth projects are all backed by fixed fee contracts and minimum volume commitments, providing low risk, high-return earnings growth pathways for EQT. While we cannot disclose specific contract terms or end customers, before the impact of upstream volume growth or basis tightening, we expect these projects to add approximately $250 million of recurring free cash flow by 2029.

同樣，中游成長項目均有固定費用合約和最低交易量承諾作為後盾，為 EQT 提供低風險、高回報的獲利成長途徑。雖然我們不能透露具體的合約條款或最終客戶，但在受到上游產量成長或基礎收緊的影響之前，我們預計到 2029 年這些項目將增加約 2.5 億美元的經常性自由現金流。

Initially, we will reallocate volumes to fill this new demand, followed by steady mid-single-digit multi-year growth. We have the capacity to grow production by at least 2 Bcf per day to backfill these volumes, which means we've set the stage to responsibly grow the business by at least 30% over the coming years. These sustainable growth opportunities distinguish EQT among industry peers, while also providing unmatched risk adjusted exposure to natural gas prices.

最初，我們將重新分配產量以滿足這一新需求，然後實現多年中等個位數的穩定成長。我們有能力每天增加至少 20 億立方英尺的產量來填補這些產量，這意味著我們已經為未來幾年負責任地實現至少 30% 的業務成長奠定了基礎。這些可持續的成長機會使 EQT 在業界脫穎而出，同時也提供無與倫比的風險調整後的天然氣價格曝險。

Furthermore, we are as confident as ever that Appalachian basis should structurally tighten through the end of the decade. And we index the supply deals to local pricing points to benefit from this uplift relative to Henry Hub, in addition to the contractual premium.

此外，我們一如既往地相信，到本世紀末，阿巴拉契亞山脈的地基將會出現結構性收緊。我們將供應交易與當地定價點掛鉤，以便除了合約溢價之外，還能從相對於亨利港的這種提升中獲益。

Turning to capital allocation. As we achieve our deleveraging goals and organically grow the business, we will measure our free cash flow available to invest after the deduction of maintenance CapEx only. Of that remaining bucket of free cash flow, we plan to allocate first dollars toward high-return, low-risk, sustainable growth projects like the ones discussed today. These large projects follow on the heels of the strategic growth investments in water infrastructure and compression that we have made over the past two years and are now the key drivers of the operating efficiency gains and outperformance you have become accustomed to seeing in our quarterly results.

轉向資本配置。當我們實現去槓桿目標並有機地發展業務時，我們將在扣除維護資本支出後衡量可供投資的自由現金流。在剩餘的自由現金流中，我們計劃將第一筆資金分配給高回報、低風險、可持續成長的項目，就像今天討論的項目一樣。這些大型專案緊跟著我們過去兩年對水基礎設施和壓縮技術的策略性成長投資後，現在已成為您在我們的季度業績中看到的營運效率提升和優異表現的關鍵驅動力。

We expect this high-return reinvestment to drive sustainable earnings growth, which should enable us to confidently grow our base dividend and ensure it is bulletproof at all parts of the commodity cycle. Beyond organic growth and our base dividend, we plan to use excess free cash flow opportunistically to further reduce debt, patiently build up cash, or opportunistically buy back a significant amount of shares during a market down cycle.

我們預計這種高回報的再投資將推動可持續的獲利成長，這將使我們能夠自信地增加基本股息，並確保其在商品週期的各個階段都能夠堅不可摧。除了有機成長和基本股利之外，我們還計劃利用多餘的自由現金流來進一步減少債務，耐心累積現金，或在市場下行週期中適時回購大量股票。

Turning to hedging. We tactically added a modest amount of hedges for the upcoming winter to take advantage of call skew in the options market. We hedged 10% with costless collars for December through February at an average price floor just above $4 per MMBtu and an average ceiling price around $7 per MMBtu. Note our updated hedge table also includes hedges that were novated with the Olympus acquisition, covering approximately 5% of our production through Q1 2027. We will continue to patiently look for hedging opportunities like this and position EQT to realize higher-than-average gas prices through the cycle.

轉向對沖。我們策略性地為即將到來的冬季增加了適量的對沖，以利用期權市場的看漲期權偏差。從 12 月到 2 月，我們以無成本領圈對沖了 10%，平均價格下限略高於每百萬英熱單位 4 美元，平均上限價格約為每百萬英熱單位 7 美元。請注意，我們更新後的對沖表還包括奧林巴斯收購案中更新的對沖，涵蓋了我們截至 2027 年第一季約 5% 的產量。我們將繼續耐心尋找這樣的對沖機會，並使 EQT 在整個週期中實現高於平均水平的天然氣價格。

Turning to natural gas macro. While there are near-term headwinds primarily due to production growth, we continue to hold a structurally bullish view for prices as we look out to 2026 and 2027. First, on the supply side, there is growing evidence that associated gas growth is slowing. The oil-directed rig count has declined by approximately 50 rigs, or roughly 11%, since April.

轉向天然氣宏觀。儘管近期主要因產量成長而面臨阻力，但展望 2026 年和 2027 年，我們仍然對價格持結構性看漲觀點。首先，在供應方面，越來越多的證據顯示伴生氣成長正在放緩。自 4 月以來，石油鑽井數量減少了約 50 個，降幅約 11%。

While Brent and WTI pricing has rebounded off their April and May lows, we believe global oil markets still lean towards oversupply, particularly given OPEC's strategy to rapidly add back barrels and defend market share. That backdrop suggests US oil activity will remain subdued into next year as operators stay disciplined and focused on shareholder returns. Critically, this curbs a major source of incremental gas supply.

儘管布蘭特原油和西德克薩斯中質原油價格已從 4 月和 5 月的低點反彈，但我們認為全球石油市場仍然傾向於供應過剩，特別是考慮到歐佩克迅速增加石油產量和捍衛市場份額的策略。這一背景表明，由於營運商保持紀律並專注於股東回報，美國石油活動明年仍將保持低迷。至關重要的是，這抑制了增量天然氣供應的主要來源。

At the same time, the demand picture continues to strengthen as we expect a meaningful step-up in LNG exports by Q4, with Plaquemines LNG reaching full rate and Golden Pass LNG beginning operation. This increase is on top of the 2.5 Bcf per day of LNG demand growth we've seen since the beginning of 2025 and should quickly tighten balances, especially as US dry gas supply struggles to keep pace.

同時，隨著 Plaquemines LNG 專案達到滿載生產以及 Golden Pass LNG 專案開始運營，我們預計第四季度液化天然氣出口將大幅增加，需求前景將繼續增強。這一增長是在我們自 2025 年初以來看到的每天 25 億立方英尺液化天然氣需求增長的基礎上的，這應該會迅速收緊平衡，特別是在美國幹氣供應難以跟上步伐的情況下。

Based on recent and upcoming FIDs, US nameplate LNG capacity should grow to north of 30 Bcf per day by 2030, which we believe will drive structurally higher US pricing next decade. At the same time, Qatar recently delayed the in-service of their new LNG capacity from early to mid-2026, further increasing our bullish near-term outlook.

根據最近和即將做出的最終投資決定，到 2030 年，美國標稱液化天然氣產能將增長至每天 300 億立方英尺以上，我們認為這將在未來十年推動美國價格結構性上漲。同時，卡達最近將其新的液化天然氣產能投入使用時間從 2026 年初推遲到 2026 年中期，這進一步增強了我們對近期前景的樂觀看法。

Due to surging gas production, the current market is loose, with storage levels 6% above normal, but this environment is self-correcting. Lower pricing in the near term should disincentivize dry gas producers who are chasing prices by increasing activity, especially in the marginal Haynesville play, where well productivity is beginning to degrade, a clear sign of inventory exhaustion.

由於天然氣產量激增，目前市場較為寬鬆，庫存水準比正常水準高出 6%，但這種環境具有自我修正的能力。短期內較低的價格應該會抑制那些透過增加活動來追逐價格的乾氣生產商，特別是在邊緣海恩斯維爾地區，那裡的油井生產率開始下降，這是庫存枯竭的明顯跡象。

Shifting to guidance. We have issued an updated outlook pro forma to the Olympus transaction. Our updated 2025 production guidance range is 2,300 to 2,400 Bcfe, which includes approximately 100 Bcfe of production contribution from Olympus in the second half of the year. We are lowering our operating expense guidance range by approximately $0.06 per Mcfe, driven by accretion from the Olympus transaction and continued base business outperformance, while keeping price differential guidance unchanged.

轉向指導。我們已經發布了奧林巴斯交易的更新展望預測。我們更新後的 2025 年產量指引範圍為 2,300 至 2,400 億立方英尺當量，其中包括奧林巴斯在下半年貢獻的約 1,000 億立方英尺當量的產量。由於奧林巴斯交易帶來的增值和基礎業務持續優異表現，我們將營運費用指導範圍下調約 0.06 美元/Mcfe，同時保持價格差異指導不變。

As you recall, last quarter, we reduced our full-year capital guidance as tangible evidence of efficiency gain. Despite the acquisition of Olympus on July 1 and the associated $100 million of incremental second-half spending, we are maintaining our full-year capital guidance range of $2.3 billion to $2.45 billion. This is once again a tangible representation of continued efficiency gains within our base business which, without Olympus, would have driven our capital spending well below the low end of guidance. All told, production is up, operating costs are down, and capital efficiency continues to improve.

大家還記得，上個季度，我們下調了全年資本指導，作為效率提升的有力證據。儘管 7 月 1 日收購了奧林巴斯，並因此在下半年增加了 1 億美元的支出，但我們仍將全年資本指引範圍維持在 23 億美元至 24.5 億美元之間。這再次切實體現了我們基礎業務的持續效率提升，如果沒有奧林巴斯，我們的資本支出將遠低於指導值的低端。總而言之，產量上升，營運成本下降，資本效率持續提高。

And finally, we have modestly increased capital contributions to equity method investments, reflecting our decision to preorder the compression horsepower for MVP Boost due to the growing backlog for this equipment. Note this is not an increase in CapEx, but simply a decision to pull forward an existing expenditure from 2026 into 2025.

最後，我們適度增加了對權益法投資的資本貢獻，這反映了我們決定預訂 MVP Boost 的壓縮馬力，因為該設備的積壓量不斷增加。請注意，這並不是資本支出的增加，而只是將現有支出從 2026 年提前到 2025 年的決定。

And with that, I will turn the call back over to Toby for some concluding remarks.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給托比，讓他做一些總結性發言。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

To conclude, we've posted another stellar quarter of both operational and financial results, with the outlook continuing to improve. Our pipeline of differentiated strategic growth projects that we discussed today places EQT in a peerless position within the industry and underscores the differentiated investment opportunities emerging from our integrated platform.

總而言之，我們又公佈了一個出色的季度營運和財務業績，前景繼續改善。我們今天討論的差異化策略成長項目使 EQT 在產業中處於無與倫比的地位，並強調了我們綜合平台帶來的差異化投資機會。

We have unlocked sustainable growth while also increasing free cash flow durability, the combination of which we expect to drive cash flow growth and further valuation multiple expansion for shareholders. The momentum at EQT has never been stronger, and the sense of purpose and excitement inside the company has never been greater.

我們實現了永續成長，同時也提高了自由現金流的持久性，我們預計這兩者相結合將推動現金流成長並進一步擴大股東的估值倍數。EQT 的發展勢頭從未如此強勁，公司內部的目標感和興奮感也從未如此強烈。

With that, I'd now like to open the call to questions.

現在，我想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Leggate, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Doug Leggate，Wolfe Research。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. I got to say I love Jeremy's we'll continue to build cash. I think you know our views on that. So happy to hear that message continually delivered.

謝謝。大家早安。我必須說我喜歡傑里米，我們將繼續累積現金。我想您知道我們對此的看法。很高興不斷聽到這樣的訊息。

But my question is whether you can do that while spending on the tremendous growth setup that you've laid out and obviously accelerated in the last couple of months of the announcements. So I wonder if you can address the key question perhaps for everybody this morning, which is what's the CapEx cadence to get to that $250 million of free cash flow growth by 2029? Maybe Jeremy, you could also address your note to build multiple as to whether you're hinting at monetization at some point.

但我的問題是，您是否可以在投入巨額資金實現這一目標的同時做到這一點，而這一目標在公告發布後的最後幾個月顯然已經加速。所以我想知道您是否可以今天早上為大家解答一個關鍵問題，即到 2029 年實現 2.5 億美元自由現金流增長的資本支出節奏是多少？也許傑里米，你也可以在你的筆記中提到建立多個，以表明你是否在某個時候暗示貨幣化。

Yeah. Doug, great question. And I think what's really important and what we really want to reiterate is that we have the ability to generate robust free cash flow, delever, and fuel these sustainable growth opportunities. When we're talking about the $1 billion of CapEx on the -- really related to the midstream side of things, that's going to be back weighted closer towards '28. So we'll see a little bit that show up in '26, but then it'll start showing up closer to '27, '28.

是的。道格，這個問題問得好。我認為真正重要的、我們真正想要重申的是，我們有能力創造強勁的自由現金流、去槓桿並推動這些永續成長機會。當我們談論 10 億美元的資本支出時 - 這實際上與中游方面有關，它將在 28 年左右得到更準確的估計。因此，我們會看到在 26 年出現一些變化，但隨後會在 27 年、28 年左右開始顯現。

And I think the other point that's really important on the upstream side of things, keep in mind, we've got 2 Bcf a day that's already producing local. We have the opportunity to reallocate those volumes to feed these facilities. That is going to give us a tremendous amount of flexibility to be very thoughtful with our upstream production growth. And I think both of these opportunities are going to allow us to continue to make sure that we're allocating capital where we think is best, continue to pay down deleveraging, but also being able to capture these exciting sustainable growth opportunities.

我認為，在上游方面另一個非常重要的點是，請記住，我們每天的本地產量已經達到 20 億立方英尺。我們有機會重新分配這些數量來滿足這些設施的需求。這將為我們提供極大的靈活性，讓我們能夠更周到地考慮上游生產的成長。我認為這兩個機會將使我們能夠繼續確保將資本配置到我們認為最佳的地方，繼續償還去槓桿，同時也能夠抓住這些令人興奮的可持續成長機會。

Doug, when you think about the cadence of when the spending shows up that Toby just outlined relative to when we have a lot of cash coming in the door, I think if you look at where we are at by the end of next year, since a lot of the spending is really picking up in '27, '28, I think our debt's going to get so low at that point that it really lines up really nicely where there's not a lot more debt to repay at all, certainly on a net basis. And it's a natural point where we can start shifting dollars towards these really high-return opportunities.

道格，當你考慮到托比剛才概述的支出出現的節奏，相對於我們有大量現金流入的時候，我想如果你看看我們到明年年底的情況，因為很多支出在'27'、'28'年真的會增加，我認為我們的債務在那時會變得非常低，以至於它真的很好地排列在一起，根本沒有太多的債務需要償還，當然是從淨額那時。這是一個自然的時刻，我們可以開始將資金轉向這些真正高回報的機會。

And I'd also note, too, that at that point in time, when we look at our forecast, it kind of where strip is in the high-3s. I mean, we're generating north of $3 billion a year. And so you get to a level where our net debt can be approaching zero and there's still a lot of dollars left over. So I think we have opportunity both ways and a ton of flexibility, no matter how the macro plays out.

而且我還注意到，在那個時間點，當我們查看我們的預測時，條帶處於 3 的高位。我的意思是，我們每年的收入超過 30 億美元。因此，我們的淨債務可以接近零，並且還剩下很多美元。因此我認為，無論宏觀形勢如何變化，我們都擁有雙向機會和極大的靈活性。

That's very clear. Guys, my follow-up is a quick one. It's really a nod to Toby's question. What would it take for you to add production as opposed to reallocate production? I guess it's a micro question into that 2 Bcf a day you laid out. Because obviously, the potential uplift in associated free cash flow, call it a couple of dollar margin, could be enormous. But what would it take for you to actually grow production? I'll leave it there. Thanks.

這非常清楚。夥計們，我的後續行動很快。這其實是對托比問題的認可。與重新分配生產相比，您需要做什麼來增加生產？我猜這是關於您每天佈置的 20 億立方英尺的一個微觀問題。因為顯然，相關自由現金流的潛在提升，也就是幾美元的利潤，可能是巨大的。但是，要真正提高產量需要做些什麼呢？我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Yeah. So we're not going to be blind to what the market is showing there. So we will be thoughtful on the pricing that we're seeing there. And that'll factor into our decisions on how I'd say how fast we move from reallocating towards growing the production.

是的。因此，我們不會對市場表現視而不見。因此，我們會認真考慮我們所看到的定價。這將影響我們的決策，即我們如何快速地從重新分配轉向增加生產。

But Doug, you mentioned this opportunity for us. Just to highlight this growth opportunity and what this means in an end-state scenario, let's just use 1 Bcf a day of growth, that will translate to, call it, 360 Bcf of increased production. End state, looking at our cost structure, about $2, take a $4 Henry Hub price, you're talking about $720 million of free cash flow. Throwing 8% yield on top of that, free cash flow yield, that's $9 billion of value, about $15 a share.

但是道格，你提到了給我們這個機會。為了強調這一成長機會以及這在最終情景下意味著什麼，我們假設每天增加 10 億立方英尺，那麼就相當於增加 3,600 億立方英尺的產量。最終狀態，看看我們的成本結構，大約 2 美元，以 4 美元的亨利中心價格計算，你說的是 7.2 億美元的自由現金流。再加上 8% 的收益率，即自由現金流收益率，價值就達到 90 億美元，約每股 15 美元。

So just 1 Bcf a day is basically a 25% upside to share price now. So it's attractive, but we're going to continue to be disciplined and thoughtful about this. And like I said, we've got the volume so that we have the flexibility to make the right decisions.

因此，每天僅 10 億立方英尺基本上就意味著股價上漲 25%。所以它很有吸引力，但我們將繼續對此保持紀律並深思熟慮。正如我所說的，我們有足夠的數量，因此我們可以靈活地做出正確的決定。

Great. Thanks, guys. Appreciate the answers.

偉大的。謝謝大家。感謝您的回答。

Devin McDermott, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的戴文麥克德莫特。

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So I wanted to come back to the capital side, but talk a bit more just about the base business. If you look at this year's results so far, it's the second quarter in a row of CapEx reductions and volumes at the high end of guidance, even with some curtailments in the quarter.

嘿。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。所以我想回到資本方面，但多談一點基礎業務。如果你看一下今年迄今為止的業績，這是連續第二個季度削減資本支出，並且交易量處於指導值的高端，即使本季度有一些縮減。

So I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the evolution of capital on that side over the next few years. You have the roll-off of compression spending, you have the reduction in D&C spending that comes along with the synergy targets. So how much room does that give you relative to current capital budget to then layer in some of the strategic growth later in the decade, if that question makes sense? Just kind of putting all the pieces together on the total capital budget.

所以我想知道您是否可以再多談談未來幾年資本方面的演變。隨著協同目標的實現，壓縮支出減少，D&C 支出也減少。那麼，如果這個問題有意義的話，相對於當前的資本預算，這給你提供了多大的空間，以便在十年後實現一些策略性成長？只是把所有部分放在一起就得出了總資本預算。

Yeah, it's a good question, Devin. I think as we move into 2026 and 2027, you're going to see the maintenance piece of our spin come down, but you will see the growth piece of it go up. That is by design. That's what we've been intentionally driving towards for a couple of years. We're still trying to add up and determine exactly what's in 2026 versus '27 as that ramp increases, so I'm not going to give out any specific numbers today.

是的，這是個好問題，德文。我認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年和 2027 年，您會看到我們的維護部分下降，但增長部分上升。這是設計使然。這正是我們幾年來一直努力追求的目標。隨著這一成長趨勢的加快，我們仍在努力匯總並確定 2026 年與 2027 年的具體情況，因此今天我不會透露任何具體數字。

But I would say, between the projects that we outlined on slide 9 of our investor deck, our goal as a team is to try to build those opportunities to create and accelerate value. But I think it's well noted that the efficiencies in the underlying base business are driving down the maintenance piece of that capital spend, which is what -- our goal is to have everybody to be able to see very clearly separate from the value-creating growth wedge that's added on top of that.

但我想說，在我們投資者簡報第 9 張投影片中概述的專案中，我們作為一個團隊的目標是嘗試建立這些機會來創造和加速價值。但我認為，眾所周知，基礎業務的效率正在降低資本支出的維護部分，這就是——我們的目標是讓每個人都能非常清楚地看到，與在此基礎上增加的價值創造成長楔子區分開來。

Yeah. Okay, makes a lot of sense. And then maybe we just kind of step back. You talked about earlier in the year, maybe announcing one power deal in 2025. And here, we have multiple strategic growth projects already executed by the middle of the year across both upstream and midstream.

是的。好的，很有道理。然後我們也許就只是退後一步。您在今年稍早談到，也許在 2025 年宣布一項電力交易。截至今年年中，我們已經在上游和中游實施了多個策略性成長項目。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the opportunity set as it sits today. Have you executed on your targets at this point? Is there still more room to run? How are you thinking about the longer-term evolution of strategic growth and the opportunity set for in-basin demand?

我想知道您是否可以稍微談談目前面臨的機會。您現在是否已經實現了您的目標？還有運行空間嗎？您如何看待策略成長的長期演變和流域內需求的機會？

Yeah. Devin, when you look back at some of the, I guess, guidance we provided in prior earnings calls, we said probably seeing -- of the 6 to 7 Bcf a day of in-basin demand, 2 Bcf a day, that was data center driven. And when you step back, you think EQT maybe will capture 1 Bcf a day of that 6 to 7 of in-basin demand. And here we are sitting with over 1.5 Bcf a day of power demand opportunities that have been captured and brought in here for EQT.

是的。德文，我想，當你回顧我們在之前的收益電話會議上提供的一些指導時，我們說可能會看到——在每天 60 到 70 億立方英尺的盆地需求中，有 20 億立方英尺是由數據中心驅動的。而當你退一步考慮時，你會認為 EQT 每天可能可以滿足盆地內 6 到 7 億立方英尺需求中的 10 億立方英尺。現在，我們每天有超過 15 億立方英尺的電力需求機會，這些機會已被 EQT 抓住並引入。

So really, two things here. Either we've significantly underestimated the size of this opportunity, or we are over-executing on our ability to capture these opportunities. One thing's for sure. There's -- this is a good first step. We still see other opportunities in the pipeline. And one of the other things that I think is important to note is the cluster effect of these data centers and these ecosystems, I think, will only continue to build on themselves. So as momentum grows in our operational footprint, we think the opportunity could get larger.

所以實際上，這裡有兩件事。要嘛我們嚴重低估了這個機會的規模，要嘛我們過度發揮了抓住這些機會的能力。有一件事是肯定的。這是——很好的第一步。我們仍然看到其他機會正在醞釀中。我認為另一件值得注意的事情是這些資料中心和生態系統的群集效應，我認為它們只會繼續自我建構。因此，隨著我們營運規模不斷擴大，我們認為機會可能會變得更大。

Understood. Well, congrats on the good progress so far. Thanks, guys.

明白了。好吧，祝賀你迄今為止的良好進展。謝謝大家。

Arun Jayaram, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的阿倫‧賈亞拉姆 (Arun Jayaram)。

Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. My first question is -- appreciate the detail on the Shippingport and Homer City deals that you're pursuing. You talked about a multi-phase development in 2027 and '28. I was wondering if you had thoughts on the timeline to reach the full 800 Ms on the Shippingport facility and 665 on Homer City. What do you expect as a timeline to reach those volume commitments?

是的。先生們，早安。我的第一個問題是——感謝您提供有關您正在尋求的 Shippingport 和 Homer City 交易的詳細資訊。您談到了 2027 年和 2028 年的多階段開發。我想知道您是否考慮過 Shippingport 設施達到 800 M 和 Homer City 達到 665 M 的時間表。您期望在什麼時間範圍內實現這些數量承諾？

Yeah, good question. I think for both of them, we think about it as year-end 2028. There will be a ramp phase. Homer City has those turbines being delivered beginning next year. So I think you could see that one pick up a lot sooner, and we can, through our Olympus assets, start to bring some volumes to that facility a lot sooner than we otherwise would be, so flexing the operational capabilities after that acquisition.

是的，好問題。我認為對於這兩者來說，我們都認為這是 2028 年底。將會有一個上升階段。荷馬市將於明年開始交付這些渦輪機。因此，我認為你可以看到這一成長速度加快了很多，而且我們可以透過我們的奧林巴斯資產，比以往更快地開始向該工廠提供一些產量，從而在收購後提高營運能力。

But I think to really be able to reach full rate, the way we model it is really year-end 2028 which, just as a reminder, Arun, when you step back and think about what that means, that's also the same year that the Transco expansion comes online, MVP Boost, Southgate. It's all happening right in that same period of time.

但我認為，要真正達到滿載運轉，我們建模的真正時間是 2028 年底，阿倫，提醒一下，當你退一步思考這意味著什麼時，你會發現，這也是 Transco 擴展上線、MVP Boost、Southgate 的同一年。一切都發生在同一時期。

So that's the period, too, going back to, I think, Doug's questions on the timing of growth, that we're really looking at where we're to bring growth into the market. That's when the market is really going to need it. We have flexibility because of the reallocation. But you're going to see a very quickly tightening market in 2028 and 2029 on the back while this demand coming on online in a very short period, kind of like you are with LNG right now.

所以這也是一個時期，回到道格關於成長時機的問題，我認為，我們真正在考慮如何將成長帶入市場。那時市場才真正需要它。由於重新分配，我們有了彈性。但你會看到 2028 年和 2029 年市場會迅速收緊，而這種需求會在很短的時間內出現，就像現在的液化天然氣一樣。

Great. And my follow up, how do you see yesterday's PJM auction clear at the price cap? How do you see this impacting gas power gen development and gas demand overall, given indications of continued power market tightening?

偉大的。我的後續問題是，您如何看待昨天的 PJM 拍賣明確的價格上限？鑑於電力市場持續緊縮的跡象，您認為這將對天然氣發電發展和整體天然氣需求產生什麼影響？

I think it's a great demonstration of the market working to solve the problem. I mean, there are certain inefficiencies in PJM that need to get worked out. We're certainly not advocates of prices being pushed so high that it's not good for society and the economy overall. And that's what we're really able to solve through our integrated platform is providing that the best solution for customers at the cheapest cost.

我認為這是市場努力解決問題的一個很好的例子。我的意思是，PJM 中存在一些效率低下的問題，需要解決。我們當然不主張將價格提高到對社會和整體經濟不利的程度。這就是我們透過整合平台真正能夠解決的問題，即以最低的成本為客戶提供最佳解決方案。

But there's power that's needed, and the power is going to get built. And you're seeing generation willing to be built, but at a higher price. And that's what's happening through those auctions.

但我們需要電力，而且電力也需要建設。你會看到人們願意建造發電廠，但價格更高。這就是透過拍賣發生的事情。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

Yeah. Thanks so much. Congrats again on these data center-related transactions. And just would love your perspective on how you're pricing it. It sounds like you're tying it to M2 plus. And so implicit in that is a view that the differentials should be tightening up over time. So can you just talk about how much flexibility was there to price it to hub versus pricing it locally? If there was that flexibility, why did you choose local pricing? Just your perspective on the pricing, and then I have a follow-up on near-term macro.

是的。非常感謝。再次恭喜這些與資料中心相關的交易。我很想聽聽您對如何定價的看法。聽起來你正在將它與 M2 plus 綁定。這其中隱含的觀點是，隨著時間的推移，差距應該會縮小。那麼，您能否談談按樞紐定價與按本地定價的靈活性有多大？如果有這種彈性，為什麼您選擇本地定價？只是您對定價的看法，然後我會跟進近期宏觀情況。

Yeah, great question. So we're trying to obviously get the most value out of this we can, but also provide an anchor liquid pricing point for customers so they can financially hedge if they want to take some of the volatility out. Like I said in the prior comments, we are very bullish Appalachian pricing actually relative to Henry Hub. I know it's not the consensus view right now.

是的，很好的問題。因此，我們顯然正在努力從中獲得最大的價值，同時也為客戶提供一個錨定的流動定價點，以便他們在想要消除部分波動時可以進行財務對沖。就像我在之前的評論中所說的那樣，我們非常看好阿巴拉契亞山脈相對於亨利中心的定價。我知道這不是目前的共識。

But when you see all this demand show up in the face of probably half of the players in Appalachia running real thin on inventory come into the decade, it does set up for a really interesting sort of paradigm shift where I think that basis tightens a lot. So we intentionally are structuring them linked to that. For multiple reasons, I think it's best for the customer. I actually think it's best for EQT at the same time.

但是，當你看到所有這些需求都出現在阿巴拉契亞地區可能有一半的玩家庫存嚴重不足的情況下時，這確實為一種非常有趣的範式轉變奠定了基礎，我認為基礎會變得非常緊縮。因此，我們有意將它們建構與之相關。出於多種原因，我認為這對客戶來說是最好的。我實際上認為這對 EQT 來說也是最好的。

In time and theory, you could link it to Henry Hub, but it just makes it a little more complicated when it comes to actually procuring supply, giving EQT the flexibility to find the best molecule as a solution. As an example, if we're marketing gas, and we want to buy gas out of one of the more liquid pools, because that's a cheaper solution, it's a lot easier to do that when pricing is already indexed to that point. You don't run any issues of having effectively like a dirty hedge. So it allows us to, again, give the best solution for the customer, still have all the flexibility, and have the most upside, I think, from a production standpoint.

從時間和理論上講，你可以將其與亨利中心聯繫起來，但在實際採購供應時，這只會讓事情變得更加複雜，從而使 EQT 能夠靈活地找到最佳分子作為解決方案。舉個例子，如果我們正在行銷天然氣，並且我們想從一個流動性更強的池子裡購買天然氣，因為這是一個更便宜的解決方案，當定價已經與那個點掛鉤時，這樣做會容易得多。您不會遇到任何像髒兮兮的樹籬那樣的問題。因此，它使我們能夠再次為客戶提供最佳解決方案，同時仍具有所有的靈活性，並且我認為從生產的角度來看具有最大的優勢。

That's helpful, Jeremy. And then the follow-up is just on the near-term macro. Maybe just us, but we've been surprised by some of the scrapes that have come in with production at 107, probably running north of a B higher than what we would have anticipated in the near term. Have you guys been surprised by that? Has that affected the way you think about how we exit October and set up for the winter? And just in general, as you think about near-term producer discipline, are we seeing some breakdown?

這很有幫助，傑里米。接下來的關注點只是近期宏觀經濟。也許只是我們，但我們對 107 產量出現的問題感到驚訝，可能比我們短期內預期的產量高出 B 以上。你們對此感到驚訝嗎？這是否影響了您對如何度過十月並準備過冬的想法？總的來說，當您考慮近期生產者紀律時，我們是否看到了一些崩潰？

I think the short answer is yes. I think our view of Appalachia specifically is from this point towards the end of the year, you're flat to down. It looks like from what the data we see, the Permian is also relatively in check. You're not seeing any sort of like race to add production growth. It's really the Haynesville and its other basins. And again, it's more of what we've seen in the past. It's producers chasing price signals.

我認為簡短的回答是肯定的。我認為，我們對阿巴拉契亞山脈的看法是，從現在到年底，山脈將保持穩定或下降。從我們看到的數據來看，二疊紀盆地也相對受到控制。你不會看到任何類似的增加產量成長的競賽。它實際上是海恩斯維爾及其其他盆地。再說一次，這更像是我們過去所見的情況。這是生產者追逐價格訊號。

And this morning, you're seeing gas approaching $3. I think if we had Haynesville assets, we would be really hard pressed as to why there's justification to add activity right now. I think there was a view for the past two years that 2025 was going to be this year that a lot of these producers could exit and sell their businesses. And lo and behold, they do the same thing again. They push pricing down to a level where if you're in the Haynesville, you're not getting your money back, where well productivity is today at current well costs.

今天早上，你會看到汽油價格接近 3 美元。我認為，如果我們擁有海恩斯維爾資產，我們很難理解為什麼現在有理由增加活動。我認為過去兩年有一種觀點認為，2025 年將是許多生產商退出並出售其業務的一年。你瞧，他們又做了同樣的事情。他們將價格壓低到這樣一個水平：如果你在海恩斯維爾，你就無法收回你的錢，而那裡的油井生產力就是按照目前的油井成本計算的。

And so again, it's just another example of the value destruction that comes out of unsustainably chasing prices. And again, as we talk about what does it take for EQT to grow, it's lining up our supply with known demand through our infrastructure, through contracts. It's a very different, much more disciplined way that we look at it.

所以，這只是不可持續地追逐價格而導致價值破壞的另一個例子。再次，當我們談論 EQT 的成長需要什麼時，它透過我們的基礎設施和合約將我們的供應與已知的需求結合起來。我們以一種非常不同、更嚴謹的方式來看待這個問題。

But again, if we see this continued surge of production, there's certainly downside to pricing in the years ahead. We certainly hope that that doesn't happen. It's not something we control, but the good thing about being the lowest cost producer in the position EQT is in today is we make a bunch of money either way. Even at $3 gas, we can make a bunch of money. And if gas goes up, we'll make a bunch of money, too, because we can be unhedged. So it fits perfectly into how we've sculpted the business.

但是，如果我們看到產量持續激增，那麼未來幾年的價格肯定會出現下行趨勢。我們當然希望這種情況不會發生。這不是我們能控制的，但作為 EQT 目前所處位置上成本最低的生產商，我們無論如何都能賺到很多錢。即使汽油價格為 3 美元，我們也可以賺很多錢。如果天然氣價格上漲，我們也會賺很多錢，因為我們可以不再對沖。因此它完全符合我們塑造業務的方式。

But again, short answer is we do think production is too high. We've been surprised to the upside and certainly hope it doesn't continue surging.

但簡而言之，我們確實認為產量太高。我們對此感到驚訝，當然希望它不會繼續飆升。

Yeah. Thanks, Jeremy. We'll be watching.

是的。謝謝，傑里米。我們會關注的。

Kalei Akamine, Bank of America.

卡雷‧阿卡明 (Kalei Akamine)，美國銀行。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. The growth option here appears to be surprisingly underappreciated. You've got sufficient in-basin molecules, and that should allow you to divert a lot of it to new customers as you get your growth ramp underway. And I appreciate that it's early, but are there any guardrails that you can kind of offer around CapEx, how you plan to shape that, maybe over how many years that could be spread over?

嘿。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。這裡的成長選擇似乎被意外地低估了。您擁有足夠的盆內分子，這應該允許您在開始成長時將其中的大部分轉移給新客戶。我知道現在還為時過早，但是您能否針對資本支出提供一些指導，您計劃如何規劃資本支出，以及可以分攤到多少年？

Yeah. As far as guardrails are concerned, I think as Jeremy mentioned in the opening remarks, I mean, we could talk about thinking low single-digit growth to meet these volumes.

是的。就護欄而言，我認為正如傑里米在開場白中提到的那樣，我們可以考慮採用低個位數增長來滿足這些數量。

And I think just the other thing I just mentioned on these opportunities that we've been able to capture, and one of the things that's special about EQT that's worth highlighting, because this is what's ultimately going to position us to continue this momentum and continue to capture these really attractive opportunities for our shareholders, is just our scale, our investment-grade balance sheet, our peer-leading inventory, durable cost structure, and the scale part, knowing that we have these volumes flowing above ground, giving us the flexibility to enter these contracts. I mean, I think all these things really position EQT well and allow us to scope our CapEx profile so that we can still show robust free cash flow while also meeting a pretty exciting sustainable growth profile.

我認為我剛才提到的關於我們能夠抓住的這些機會的另一件事，也是 EQT 值得強調的特別之處之一，因為這最終將使我們能夠繼續保持這種勢頭並繼續為我們的股東抓住這些真正有吸引力的機會，就是我們的規模、我們的投資級資產負債表、我們同行領先的庫存、持久的成本結構和規模部分，知道我們有這些使我們能夠上的流動量，這使我們能夠上的流動量，持久的成本結構和規模。我的意思是，我認為所有這些因素確實為 EQT 提供了良好的定位，並使我們能夠確定資本支出範圍，以便我們仍然可以顯示強勁的自由現金流，同時滿足相當令人興奮的可持續增長狀況。

Got it. Thanks, Toby. I want to come back to the capital efficiency trend. It's been very clear over the last several quarters. Can you kind of offer a view on where leading-edge D&C capital per lateral foot metrics are compared to maybe '24? And then offer a view on how much runway is remaining.

知道了。謝謝，托比。我想回到資本效率趨勢的話題。過去幾季的情況已經非常清楚。您能否就目前最先進的 D&C 每側英尺資本指標與 24 年相比有何不同？然後提供關於剩餘跑道長度的觀點。

Yeah. So I mean, on our record-setting completion efficiency slide, I mean, we throw out the well cost from '24 to sort of where we've seen in the first half of '25. I think we'd like to continue to see single-digit improvements in well costs. So it's really good to see these optimizations that take place.

是的。所以我的意思是，在我們創紀錄的完井效率幻燈片中，我們拋開了 24 年到 25 年上半年的油井成本。我認為我們希望繼續看到油井成本出現個位數的改善。因此看到這些優化的實作真是太好了。

We're halfway through our compression program, so we'll continue to see benefits and uplift from that. Those are -- we're seeing twice the uplift that we were budgeting for. So there's a lot of opportunities that these teams continue to find. We're stepping into the Olympus integration now, so we're hoping to continue to find ways to optimize there.

我們的壓縮計畫已進行到一半，因此我們將繼續看到由此帶來的好處和提升。我們看到的成長是預算的兩倍。因此這些球隊仍在不斷尋找許多機會。我們現在正在進入 Olympus 整合階段，因此我們希望繼續找到優化的方法。

And then you're looking at what we're doing now, leveraging these assets to also create commercial opportunities with these supply agreements. So I mean, there's a lot of opportunities for us to continue to evolve the business, not just focused on the well cost improvements.

然後你看看我們現在正在做的事情，利用這些資產透過這些供應協議創造商業機會。所以我的意思是，我們有很多機會繼續發展業務，而不僅僅是專注於成本的改進。

Yeah, I would also add to that. It's just important as we talked about increasing some of our strategic spend. A lot of what we've been able to achieve on the well cost side, specifically in completions, is also enabled by investments we've made in infrastructure, spending money to make money over the past two years.

是的，我還要補充一點。當我們談論增加一些戰略支出時，這一點很重要。我們在油井成本方面，特別是在完井方面所取得的許多成就，也得益於我們在過去兩年中對基礎設施的投資，即花錢賺錢。

That's why we want to keep doing that. That's really the undercurrent of why we keep beating quarterly results is just seeing that come to fruition. That's why we're so excited about that. The rate of return on those investments is just so high. So that -- I think that momentum continues, as illustrated on that slide Toby referenced.

這就是我們想要繼續這樣做的原因。這確實是我們不斷超越季度業績的根本原因，只是看到這項成果。這就是我們對此感到如此興奮的原因。這些投資的報酬率非常高。所以 — — 我認為這種勢頭會持續下去，正如托比引用的幻燈片所示。

Got it. I appreciate it, guys. Good stuff.

知道了。我很感激你們。好東西。

Josh Silverstein, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·西爾弗斯坦（Josh Silverstein）。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. Just had a question on the 2 Bcf a day of potential growth here. How do you set yourself up to deliver mid-single-digit growth? Is there enough infrastructure in place already to support this or the new projects are then capable of delivering that? And then, do you build up any sort of backlog over the next few years to then have that as the storage to be able to deliver that when the demand is there? Thanks.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。我只是想問一下這裡每天 20 億立方英尺的潛在增長量。您如何實現中等個位數的成長？是否已經有足夠的基礎設施來支持這一點，或者新項目是否能夠實現這一點？那麼，您是否會在未來幾年內累積任何形式的積壓訂單，然後將其作為存儲，以便在有需求時能夠交付？謝謝。

Yeah. Josh, so when we're looking at supplying these specific demand opportunities, we will be building out new midstream infrastructure, connect them to existing gas networks. A lot of those will be connected, that EQT has our volumes connected there. So our commercial footprint is going to allow us to move gas around.

是的。喬希，當我們考慮滿足這些特定的需求機會時，我們將建造新的中游基礎設施，並將它們連接到現有的天然氣網路。其中許多將會連接起來，EQT 已將我們的捲連接到那裡。因此，我們的商業足跡將使我們能夠運輸天然氣。

We'll be going through optimization exercise on what exactly is the best way for us to fill the supply to get to these new interconnects. But this is one of the reasons why people are selecting this region to build their data centers is because they're building on top of a lot of gas infrastructure, and EQT will close that last mile and then be in a position to optimize.

我們將進行最佳化練習，以確定究竟什麼是滿足供應以獲得這些新互連的最佳方式。但這也是人們選擇這個地區建造資料中心的原因之一，因為他們是在大量天然氣基礎設施之上建造的，而 EQT 將關閉最後一英里，然後進行最佳化。

Got it. And then obviously, there's a lot of focus on the power side, but I wanted to see if you can now give us an updated view on the LNG contracting plan. Based on current supply levels, it's about 20% plus of your current supply. Do you want to have 10% or so to the LNG market? Do the LNG markets now look less attractive to you because of what you've been signing in the power market? So any update there would be great.

知道了。顯然，人們非常關注電力方面，但我想看看您現在是否可以向我們提供有關液化天然氣承包計劃的最新看法。根據目前的供應水平，它大約佔您目前供應量的 20% 以上。你想在液化天然氣市場佔有 10% 左右的份額嗎？由於您在電力市場簽署的協議，液化天然氣市場現在對您來說是否不再那麼有吸引力了？因此，任何更新都會很棒。

Yeah. Thanks for the question. I think -- so our long-term goal in the LNG markets is actually to do very similarly what we're doing on the power and data center side right now, which is link up supply directly to an end user of that gas. That's why we're trying to contract the way we are.

是的。謝謝你的提問。我認為——我們在液化天然氣市場的長期目標實際上與我們目前在電力和資料中心所做的事情非常相似，即將供應直接連接到該天然氣的最終用戶。這就是為什麼我們要嘗試改變現狀。

Long term, we still want to have 5% to 10% at least of volume. I think as our credit ratings continue to rise, I think our appetite for leaning into more of that will also rise. I think that's more of a 2030 and beyond opportunity, where that LNG market's going to really be tight and we can make a lot of money there.

從長期來看，我們仍然希望至少有 5% 到 10% 的銷售量。我認為，隨著我們的信用評級不斷上升，我們對更多信用評級的興趣也會上升。我認為這更像是一個 2030 年及以後的機會，屆時液化天然氣市場將變得非常緊張，我們可以在那裡賺很多錢。

We're actually in discussions with a number of facilities right now. Those discussions have actually improved and ticked up recently. So we're actually really excited about that opportunity. And I think what we're proving we can do domestically with our platform is, in essence, exactly what we plan to do internationally. We've been having conversations with some international customers that have really underscored I think how great that opportunity is.

實際上，我們目前正在與一些機構進行討論。這些討論最近實際上已經得到改善和增加。所以我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。我認為，我們正在證明我們能夠利用我們的平台在國內做的事情，本質上正是我們計劃在國際上所做的事情。我們一直在與一些國際客戶進行對話，我認為他們確實強調了這個機會有多好。

But again, we just want to do it the right way. Those are long-term contracts. It can be very costly if not structured the right way. But I think beyond what we do domestically, that is a huge opportunity for us. And for any company who has a platform like we do, it's built to do deals like this directly within customers.

但再說一次，我們只是想以正確的方式去做。這些都是長期合約。如果結構不正確，成本可能會非常高。但我認為，除了我們在國內所做的工作之外，這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。對於任何擁有像我們這樣的平台的公司來說，它都是為了直接在客戶內部達成此類交易而建立的。

Betty Jiang, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

Thank you. Good morning. I would love to dive into the M2 dynamics a bit more since you guys are really doubling down on a bullish view there. Basically, how big is the M2 and local market in that region? Based on what you guys are saying, it's 1.5 Bcf per day of demand that we could see from the power deals. MVPX and then the Transco expansion, that could add another 1 Bcf per day.

謝謝。早安.我很想更深入地研究 M2 動態，因為你們確實對此加倍看漲。基本上，該地區的 M2 和本地市場有多大？根據你們所說的，我們可以從電力交易中看到每天的需求量為15億立方英尺。MVPX 和 Transco 的擴建，每天可以再增加 10 億立方英尺。

How material is that demand versus the market size? How easily is it for other producers to deliver volume to that market? So really just trying to get a better sense of the bull case scenario on where that M2 price could go.

相對於市場規模而言，這種需求有多重要？其他生產商向該市場供貨的難易度如何？所以實際上只是想更了解 M2 價格在牛市情況下的走向。

Yeah, it's a great question. It obviously depends seasonally. But I'd say if you look at two of the biggest markets being that M2 market along TETCO and then the Dominion market called EGTS now, we typically look at those as being 5 to 7 Bcf a day each, again, depending on the season. I think each of these opportunities, as they emerge, are going to create very large demand sinks and very specific points. And so how we go through the process of marketing gas volumes and supplying those, whether it's EQT volume, buying other third-party volume, or reallocating, depending on where we are in that growth ramp, it's going to evolve. We're working through the most efficient plan to do that right now.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。這顯然取決於季節。但我想說，如果你看一下最大的兩個市場，即沿著 TETCO 的 M2 市場，以及現在稱為 EGTS 的 Dominion 市場，我們通常認為它們每天的產量分別為 50 到 70 億立方英尺，同樣，這取決於季節。我認為，每一個機會在出現時都會創造非常大的需求下降和非常具體的點。因此，我們如何進行天然氣行銷和供應過程，無論是 EQT 量、購買其他第三方量或重新分配，都取決於我們所處的成長階段，它將會不斷發展。我們正在製定最有效的計劃來實現這一目標。

So I think there's some element of basis tightening, but that is really taking volume, for example, that we might sell from Olympus into EGTS, take it 20 miles down EGTS and pull it into Homer City as an example. So it really is supply matching. If you look at other projects like Mountain Valley, that plant -- that pipeline is served on the tailgate of the Mobley plant, and we deliver a lot of gas there through Hammerhead and OVCX and other pipelines; that is predominantly all EQT gas. So I think for anyone who is buying gas on MVP, you're still buying EQT gas and interfacing with EQT at Mobley.

因此，我認為存在一些基本收緊的因素，但這實際上是在考慮銷量，例如，我們可能會將其從奧林巴斯銷售到 EGTS，將其沿著 EGTS 行駛 20 英里，然後將其拉到荷馬城。所以這實際上是供應匹配。如果你看看其他項目，例如 Mountain Valley，那個工廠——那條管道是在 Mobley 工廠的尾門上輸送的，我們通過 Hammerhead、OVCX 和其他管道向那裡輸送大量天然氣；那裡主要都是 EQT 天然氣。因此我認為，對於任何在 MVP 上購買天然氣的人來說，您仍然在購買 EQT 天然氣並在 Mobley 與 EQT 互動。

So I think there's a tremendous amount of upstream opportunity. But to the point Toby made in his opening remarks, this is predominantly EQT infrastructure, whether it's existing or new build, and in a core EQT operating area, meaning it's EQT volume. So I think there's a broader view that it's -- yes, it's an opportunity for everybody in Appalachia. I think the way we see the volumes actually flowing is it's really more of an EQT opportunity, which is why we're talking about filling it with growth and reallocating.

所以我認為上游存在大量機會。但正如托比在開場白中提出的觀點，這主要是 EQT 基礎設施，無論是現有的還是新建的，並且位於核心 EQT 運營區域，這意味著它是 EQT 體積。所以我認為更廣泛的觀點是——是的，這是阿巴拉契亞山脈每個人的機會。我認為我們看到的實際流量更像是一個 EQT 機會，這就是我們談論用成長和重新分配來填補它的原因。

We have a little over 2 Bcf a day today that we can reallocate. So in theory, we don't have to grow at all if we don't want to. But I think in the long term, the most value-accretive thing for shareholders is us to tailor in moderate, responsible growth to backfill as we reallocate that. So I think there's tailwinds on both sides, but it's not going to be evenly distributed across producers from the way we see volumes flowing.

我們今天每天有略多於 20 億立方英尺的資源可以重新分配。因此從理論上講，如果我們不想成長，我們根本就不必成長。但我認為，從長遠來看，對股東來說最能增值的事情是我們在重新分配資金時，適度、負責任地進行成長以填補空缺。因此，我認為雙方都有順風，但從我們看到的產量流動情況來看，這種順風不會均勻地分佈在生產商之間。

Thank you. That's really interesting color. So along that line, when you think about your pricing signal, are you looking at M2 specifically that you need to see maybe M2 getting to narrow its discount to, I don't know, $0.50 or something better than where it is now for you to see that production backfilling that volume response?

謝謝。這顏色真是有趣。因此，沿著這條思路，當您考慮定價訊號時，您是否特別關注 M2，您是否需要看到 M2 將其折扣縮小到 0.50 美元或比現在更好的水平，以便您看到產量填補了產量反應？

I think it's a combination of both Hub and M2 and EGTS. If you had a weak period in Henry Hub, but also tighter basis, we might still say the cheaper thing to do is just reallocate volumes as opposed to grow into it. We could build DUCs if we wanted to just to prepare for a period where pricing then rebounded. But again, the beauty of our scale and infrastructure platform is we can be flexible.

我認為它是 Hub、M2 和 EGTS 的結合。如果亨利港經歷了一段疲軟時期，但基礎也較為緊張，我們可能還是會說，更便宜的做法就是重新分配交易量，而不是擴大交易量。如果我們願意，我們可以建立 DUC，為價格反彈的時期做好準備。但我們的規模和基礎設施平台的優點在於我們可以靈活。

So answer is it kind of depends. It's hard for us to concretely commit to anything this early out because this is something that's really three to five years from now. But the point is that we continue making this. We have a ton of flexibility.

所以答案是，這有點取決於情況。我們很難這麼早就對任何事情做出具體承諾，因為這實際上是三到五年後的事情。但重點是我們會繼續這樣做。我們擁有極大的靈活性。

Okay. Thanks for that color.

好的。謝謝你這個顏色。

Phillip Jungwirth, BMO Capital Markets.

Phillip Jungwirth，BMO 資本市場。

On the West Virginia power project, where you're providing midstream infrastructure, is there any reason to think you wouldn't also be applying volumes? And if this is still to come, how much does midstream give you a competitive advantage here?

在西維吉尼亞電力專案中，您提供中游基礎設施，有什麼理由認為您不會提供大量電力嗎？如果這種情況仍未發生，中游能為你帶來多大的競爭優勢？

I'd say that is our expectation. It's not fully committed yet. That project should reach FID in the back half of this year. Operating near full utilization, that's around 100 million a day of gas supply. So it's not this sort of mega level of the other two projects, but I think logically, it is a project we will also supply gas to. But I think more to come on that project.

我想說這是我們的期望。它還沒有完全投入。該項目預計將於今年下半年達成最終決定。營運接近滿負荷，這意味著每天的天然氣供應量約為 1 億。因此，它不像其他兩個項目那樣規模龐大，但我認為從邏輯上講，我們也將向該項目供應天然氣。但我認為該專案還有更多進展。

Yeah. And as far as the competitive edge with midstream, midstream is a competitive edge. I mean, being integrated allows us not only to give them access to supply, but connect the dots for them. So I think it's been incredibly helpful as we've sourced these opportunities.

是的。就與中游的競爭優勢而言，中游是一種競爭優勢。我的意思是，整合不僅能讓我們為他們提供供應，還能為他們連結各個環節。因此，我認為當我們尋找這些機會時，它非常有幫助。

Yeah. I would say, too, the one thing that Toby and I found to be really interesting is, when we and our teams look at these opportunities, we start first with what is the best solution for the customer and how do we connect those dots to provide the most efficient solution. If you don't have all the tools in the toolbox between midstream and gas trading and the quantity of supply and investment-grade ratings, you simply can't offer that. You have one product to offer.

是的。我也想說，托比和我發現真正有趣的一件事是，當我們和我們的團隊看到這些機會時，我們首先要考慮的是什麼是最適合客戶的解決方案，以及如何將這些點連接起來以提供最有效的解決方案。如果您不具備中游和天然氣交易以及供應量和投資等級評級的所有工具，那麼您根本無法提供這種服務。您有一種產品可以提供。

So I think for a project like this power plant, we can truly come to them and say, we have the best solution, or we can create the best solution, for you if it's not a market solution. And I think that's one reason why we've been able to be really successful and really, so far, the partner choice for these big projects as they've been developed.

因此，我認為對於像這個發電廠這樣的項目，我們可以真正告訴他們，我們有最好的解決方案，或者如果這不是市場解決方案，我們可以為您創造最好的解決方案。我認為這是我們能夠取得真正成功的原因之一，也是迄今為止我們成為這些大型專案開發過程中合作夥伴的最佳選擇。

Okay, great. And then on MVP Boost, the open season here, not sure how much you want to get into it, but are there any initial expectations as far as interest from demand pull type customers versus producers? And more broadly, just a similar question as it relates to some of these third-party proposed pipelines out of Appalachia. Tariffs look like they could be quite high for producers. So how likely do you view some of these projects ultimately reaching FID?

好的，太好了。然後關於 MVP Boost，這裡是開放季節，不確定你想參與多少，但就需求拉動型客戶與生產商的興趣而言，有什麼初步預期嗎？更廣泛地說，這只是一個類似的問題，因為它與一些第三方提議的阿巴拉契亞管道有關。對生產商來說，關稅似乎相當高。那麼您認為其中一些項目最終達成 FID 的可能性有多大？

I'd say we've got to be careful in what we say because that open season is still active right now. I think our expectation is that in certain markets where there's a lot of scarcity for gas right now, the need for volumes or that egress sits more with the end users as opposed to the producers. Consistent with, I think, some of our comments in the past, I think these pipes, if and when they get built, will predominantly be underwritten by demand pull shippers as opposed to supply push producer shippers like you saw over the past decade. But we'll see what the open season concludes and we can provide more color next quarter.

我想說我們必須謹慎說話，因為現在這個開放季節仍然活躍。我認為我們的預期是，在某些目前天然氣嚴重短缺的市場中，對天然氣數量或出口的需求更取決於最終用戶而不是生產商。我認為，與我們過去的一些評論一致，這些管道一旦建成，將主要由需求拉動的托運人承保，而不是像過去十年那樣由供應推動的生產商托運人承保。但我們會看看開放季節的結束情況，我們可以在下個季度提供更多內容。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Scott Hanold, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Hanold。

Yeah, thanks. Just curious, as your balance sheet continues to improve, it sounds like you want to be a lot more opportunistic with buybacks versus maybe doing it in a structured manner or whatnot. But how does potential strategic shareholder selling, like some of the Olympus shareholder selling, does that play into it? Would you guys be willing to kind of step up and help manage that if that were to occur?

是的，謝謝。只是好奇，隨著您的資產負債表不斷改善，聽起來您希望在回購方面採取更多機會主義的做法，而不是以結構化的方式或諸如此類的方式進行。但是，潛在的策略股東出售（例如奧林巴斯股東的部分出售）會產生什麼影響呢？如果發生這種情況，你們願意挺身而出並幫助解決這個問題嗎？

I mean, it all depends on the price. It's hard to speculate on things like that. But I think one of the big opportunities that Toby and I have been talking about for the past 24 hours is for a lot of this growth that we feel really confident in, looking at that in-state and what that means for valuation that some of the math you walked through in the beginning, if we're not getting credit for that early on, it just opens up this huge opportunity for us to lean into buybacks with a lot of confidence, where we have a lot more we're investing behind as opposed to just what gas price do you have to believe over the coming years, which is generally, if you're in maintenance mode, the essence of the decision you're making.

我的意思是，這一切都取決於價格。很難對這樣的事情進行推測。但我認為，托比和我在過去 24 小時裡一直在談論的一大機遇是，對於我們真正有信心的增長，我們關注的是州內情況，以及這對估值意味著什麼，你一開始進行的一些計算，如果我們早期沒有得到認可，它就為我們打開了一個巨大的機會，讓我們充滿信心地進行回購幾年，我們早期沒有得到認可，它就為我們打開了一個巨大的機會，讓我們充滿信心地進行回購幾年，我們早期沒有得到認可，但通常有汽油的價格，這只是你相信未來的成本，我們有更多的投資本質，這通常是你相信的

And I think what we're setting up for EQT is you can win on more things than just gas price because we're taking more control of our own future, and the value creation is part of that. So I think the opportunity to buy the stock back becomes more attractive.

我認為，我們為 EQT 設定的目標是，你可以在更多方面取勝，而不僅僅是在油價方面，因為我們對自己的未來有了更多的掌控，而價值創造就是其中的一部分。因此我認為回購股票的機會變得更有吸引力。

Got it. Okay. And then my other question goes to the Deep Utica opportunity. Obviously, you've talked about that underlying some of the Olympus assets and probably elsewhere in your asset base. When does that become a target that you look a little bit harder at? Do you see that as more of a longer-term option, or is that something you're willing to test a little bit more near term to help support the growth opportunity you need on your production base?

知道了。好的。然後我的另一個問題是關於 Deep Utica 機會。顯然，您已經談到了奧林巴斯部分資產以及可能其他資產的基礎。什麼時候這會成為您更努力追求的目標？您是否認為這是一個長期選擇，或者您是否願意在短期內進行一些測試，以幫助支持您在生產基地所需的成長機會？

Yeah, it's a longer-term opportunity for us. That said, we could do some science work and give the team some opportunities to prove themselves on the cost side. Utica, I think we feel pretty good about the resource. It really is going to be more about the operational execution. So I mean, we could call it science because we don't technically have that labeled as non-core, but it could be a tool for us to feather in.

是的，這對我們來說是一個長期機會。也就是說，我們可以做一些科學工作，讓團隊有機會在成本上證明自己。尤蒂卡，我認為我們對該資源感覺很好。這實際上將更多地涉及操作執行。所以我的意思是，我們可以稱之為科學，因為從技術上講我們並沒有將其標記為非核心，但它可以成為我們融入的工具。

I mean, all of this, I think, would really want to have a better appreciation for the upside inventory. If we continue to see momentum on the commercial front supplying these power plants, just having more confidence on inventory, I think, could be helpful. It may be a reason why we go out there and do a couple, but it's more of a longer term in nature.

我的意思是，我認為，所有這一切確實都希望對上行庫存有更好的評價。如果我們繼續看到為這些發電廠提供商業供應的勢頭，那麼我認為對庫存有更多的信心可能會有所幫助。這可能是我們出去做一些事情的原因，但從本質上來說，這是一個長期的過程。

Yeah, it's kind of interesting. Good point on this, and I know that Deep Utica has got more airtime. In Southwest Appalachia, when most producers talk about inventory depth, we all just refer to the Lower Marcellus, which is really the main Marcellus member. If you look at the northeast part of the play, inventory numbers referenced now include a heavy disproportionate amount of Upper Marcellus, which is, call it, 1.5 Bcf per thousand. And you look at the Haynesville, most of those numbers referenced now include a disproportionate amount of Middle Bossier.

是的，這很有趣。這個觀點很好，我知道 Deep Utica 有更多的播出時間。在西南阿巴拉契亞山脈，當大多數生產商談論庫存深度時，我們都只提到下馬塞勒斯河，它實際上是馬塞勒斯河的主要成員。如果你看一下該油田的東北部，現在引用的庫存數字包括大量不成比例的上馬塞勒斯 (Upper Marcellus) 儲量，也就是每千立方英尺 1.5 億立方英尺。看看海恩斯維爾，現在引用的大多數數字都包含了不成比例的米德爾博西爾。

And when you think about the productivity of those second-degree or sort of like second-tier members of the formation to develop, compare that to the Deep Utica where around the Olympus area, the way we underwrote that is, call it like, 2.5, 2.6 Bcf per thousand and with well costs that are probably around what Haynesville well costs are, but that's before anybody's really spent time trying to drive the cost down. So for us, it's a free option, and I think takes our 30-ish years of inventory out much farther.

當您考慮這些二級或類似二線儲層成員的開發生產力時，將其與奧林匹斯地區附近的 Deep Utica 進行比較，我們承保的方式是，稱之為每千人 2.5 到 2.6 億立方英尺，井成本可能與 Haynesville 井成本差不多，但那是在任何人真正花時間試圖降低成本之前。所以對我們來說，這是一個免費的選擇，而且我認為可以讓我們的 30 年左右的庫存使用得更久。

And so when we think about what could we grow into, there's a ton more resource out there that we have rights to in Appalachia that keep that opportunity wide open for us to continue growing. It's just a question of what price and how efficient can we get on the operations side, drilling the wells.

因此，當我們思考我們可以發展成什麼樣子時，我們會發現阿巴拉契亞山脈中還有大量的資源可供我們利用，這為我們繼續發展提供了廣闊的機會。問題只是我們在鑽井作業方面能獲得多少價格和多高的效率。

Got it. Thanks for that.

知道了。謝謝。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Yeah. Good morning. Maybe just come up with a couple of things here. One, sort of been talked about it, I guess, as we've gone through the call here, but the idea with the very high PJM prices that are out there, obviously local need, you've got the infrastructure. What are you seeing? Or is there any way for you to kind of give us an idea of what's happening in the, call it, behind the meter, the off grid in terms of demand beyond the very high profile Homer City and Shippingport type projects?

是的。早安.也許這裡只想到幾件事。首先，我想，正如我們在電話會議中討論的那樣，我們已經討論過這個問題了，但是考慮到 PJM 的價格非常高，顯然是當地的需求，你就有了基礎設施。你看到了什麼？或者您能否讓我們了解一下，除了備受矚目的 Homer City 和 Shippingport 類型的專案之外，在電錶後面、離網方面的需求情況？

Yeah. I'd say the dynamic that we're seeing is that in order to get this infrastructure built, people are going to be having to sign up for PPAs that are just higher than what market pricing is right now. I think that has been something that's caused a little bit of people just pause to make sure that what they're signing up for is needed. But I think people are now realizing the only way to get this infrastructure built is to get these PPAs in place. And with inflation that's taking place, it's going to require a little bit higher pricing than what people have been accustomed to. But it's encouraging to see that these projects are going to be going forward.

是的。我想說，我們看到的動態是，為了建造這些基礎設施，人們將不得不簽署高於當前市場定價的 PPA。我認為這導致一些人停下來確認他們所簽署的內容是否有必要。但我認為人們現在意識到建造這些基礎設施的唯一方法就是建立這些 PPA。隨著通貨膨脹的發生，價格將需要比人們習慣的程度略高一些。但令人鼓舞的是，這些項目正在向前邁進。

Yeah. I think there's also the opportunity to add some peak in supply capacity. And when you add that, it allows you to increase your capacity factor across existing baseload from the levels that you see today and still have that reliability. But that additional peak in supply at current inflated rates due to the scarcity of equipment simply requires a much higher price than it did even before.

是的。我認為還有機會增加一些供應能力的高峰。當您添加它時，它允許您從今天看到的水平增加現有基載的容量係數，並且仍然具有可靠性。但由於設備稀缺，當前價格上漲導致供應量額外增加，就需要比以前高得多的價格。

And I think that's one of the misconceptions that we've observed is you're seeing much higher electricity prices, but you've also seen the cost of building these gas plants roughly double from what they might have been three, four years ago. So logically, just to keep economics flat, you need your spark spreads probably double too. So again, I think when you read through the economics of what it actually takes to build one of these plants, you can -- the need for electricity prices to rise and allow the market to evolve to meet the needs today and over the coming years just simply requires higher prices, unless the price of building these projects and the cost of capital falls back lower again.

我認為這是我們觀察到的一個誤解，就是你看到電價上漲了很多，但你也看到建造這些天然氣工廠的成本比三、四年前大約翻了一番。因此從邏輯上講，為了保持經濟平穩，你需要將火花利差翻倍。所以，我認為，當你從經濟學角度考慮建造這些電廠的實際成本時，你會發現，電價需要上漲，市場需要發展以滿足當前和未來幾年的需求，這僅僅需要更高的價格，除非建造這些項目的價格和資本成本再次回落。

Okay. And then just an unrelated follow-up. How are you thinking about hedging strategy at this point? I know at different times, there's been a goal for debt and then stepping away from hedging other times tied to what's going on maybe with the midstream business. You've laid out potential -- not potential, but likely future CapEx increases on the midstream side, so not really price-sensitive on the backside, but maybe price-sensitive up front on the CapEx commitment. So does that affect any way you're thinking about hedging over the next year or two?

好的。然後只是一個不相關的後續行動。現在您如何考慮對沖策略？我知道在不同時期，人們會有一個債務目標，然後放棄對沖，其他時候則與中游業務的進展有關。您已經列出了潛力——不是潛在的，而是中游方面未來資本支出可能增加，因此對後端價格並不真正敏感，但對前期資本支出承諾可能對價格敏感。那麼這是否會影響您未來一兩年對沖的考慮方式？

Let me put it this way. So when we think about the appropriate debt level for our business, I mean, I made this comment in our opening remarks, at $2.75 gas, like Henry Hub pricing, unhedged, we generate in a given year between $1 billion to $2 billion of unlevered free cash flow or, said another way, like your EBITDA less maintenance CapEx. So at $5 billion, you're looking at a little over three years of just steady state unhedged repay all your debt.

讓我這樣說吧。因此，當我們考慮適合我們業務的債務水平時，我的意思是，我在開場白中說過，以 2.75 美元的汽油價格，就像亨利中心的定價一樣，未經對沖，我們在一年內會產生 10 億到 20 億美元的無槓桿自由現金流，或者換句話說，就像您的 EBITDA 減去維護資本支出。因此，對於 50 億美元，您需要三年多一點的時間才能以穩定狀態無對沖償還所有債務。

That compares to a lot of our peers that are free cash flow negative at that point in time. So yes, we're trying to get our ratings higher. The agencies still want to see our debt at a low level. But fundamentally, I already feel like we're very underlevered. And in our balance sheets in a very safe spot, we're mostly focused on our maturities right now, specifically looking out to 2027 and resculpting that.

相較之下，當時我們的許多同業的自由現金流均為負值。是的，我們正在努力提高收視率。這些機構仍然希望看到我們的債務處於較低水平。但從根本上來說，我已經感覺到我們的槓桿率很低了。我們的資產負債表處於非常安全的位置，我們目前主要關注的是我們的到期日，特別是展望 2027 年並重塑它。

So hedging is something that I think we are less and less focused on. And I think if we're in a structurally bull market over the next 5 to 10 years, programmatically hedging, or really hedging any other way aside from being opportunistic, will net result in value destruction over that period of time relative to just being a taker of where prices settle. And at the same time, it gives us more flexibility in how we nominate our volumes, whether it's first a month or in the spot market.

因此，我認為我們越來越不關注對沖。我認為，如果我們在未來 5 到 10 年內處於結構性牛市，那麼程序化對沖，或者除了機會主義之外的任何其他方式的真正對沖，相對於僅僅接受價格穩定的情況，將導致那段時期內的價值破壞。同時，它使我們在指定交易量方面擁有更大的靈活性，無論是第一個月還是在現貨市場。

So I think as we move to a position where, really, no matter what prices are, we're going to be rapidly repaying debt, able to fund projects confidently, and wanting to provide investors that exposure to gas prices they want by investing in EQT structurally in addition to the growth we've talked about today. I think our bias continues to be lowly hedged, if not hedged at all. And if we are going to hedge, do the types of things that we've been doing recently, hedging four by seven costless, I think we'd be happy hedging a lot of that sort of price. And if we lose above $7, that's probably a fine outcome for our business.

因此，我認為，當我們真正轉向這樣一種狀態時，無論價格如何，我們都將迅速償還債務，能夠自信地為項目提供資金，並希望透過對 EQT 進行結構性投資，為投資者提供他們想要的天然氣價格敞口，除了我們今天談到的增長之外。我認為我們的偏見仍然是低位對沖，甚至根本沒有對沖。如果我們要進行對沖，就像我們最近一直在做的事情一樣，對沖四乘七的無成本，我想我們會很樂意對沖很多這種價格。如果我們的損失超過 7 美元，這對我們的業務來說可能是一個好結果。

Yeah. And only other dynamic I'd just add here is these investments that we're making in our sustainable growth projects are going to bring durability to our cash flows. And this $250 million of midstream free cash flow from these growth projects, I mean, those are going to bring a pretty decent amount of durability. So we also are thinking about ways that our growth is going to continue to solidify the cash flow story at EQT, which is just worth noting. It's like adding a hedge.

是的。我在這裡要補充的另一個動態是，我們在永續成長項目中所做的這些投資將為我們的現金流帶來持久性。這些成長項目產生的 2.5 億美元中游自由現金流將帶來相當可觀的持久性。因此，我們也在思考如何透過我們的成長來繼續鞏固 EQT 的現金流，這是值得注意的。這就像添加一道樹籬。

Yeah. I mean, $250 million, to Toby's point, is another $0.10 reduction in our breakeven costs by the time all this comes online towards the end of the decade. It's a huge savings, and it takes us, I think, in our view, as you model that out below $2.

是的。我的意思是，正如托比所說，到本世紀末所有這些投入使用時，2.5 億美元將使我們的盈虧平衡成本再減少 0.10 美元。這是一筆巨大的節省，而且我認為，按照我們的觀點，這將節省我們低於 2 美元的成本。

Appreciate that. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Jacob Roberts, TPH.

雅各布·羅伯茨（Jacob Roberts），TPH。

Good morning. Hopefully a quick one. In a pure reallocation scenario, and I know it'll be pricing dependent, but do you see a meaningful shift to the percentages you guys lay out on slide 24?

早安.希望很快。在純粹的重新分配情境中，我知道這將取決於定價，但你是否看到你們在第 24 張投影片上列出的百分比發生了有意義的變化？

I think that it's just simply going to be our election. And again, I think that goes back to Betty's question earlier about where pricing is on a relative basis. If we see basis price tighten up in-basin from the, call it, $0.90 you see today closer to like $0.50, $0.60, I think we're pretty open-minded about adding more exposure back in-basin. It also just depends on when that is, what the remaining supply picture looks like.

我認為這只是我們的一次選舉。再次，我認為這又回到了貝蒂之前提出的問題，即定價的相對基礎。如果我們看到基礎價格從今天的 0.90 美元收緊到 0.50 美元、0.60 美元，我認為我們對在盆地內增加更多曝光持非常開放的態度。這也取決於何時以及剩餘供應情況如何。

We have a view that you get towards the end of this decade, the Utica is also pretty thin on inventory, kind of like the Haynesville. And so again, I think you just see a paradigm shift at that point in time where you have 30 Bs of LNG becomes fully absorbed in the global market. You have all these power plants, data centers starting to really pull real demand at the same time you see inventory rollover.

我們認為，到本世紀末，尤蒂卡的庫存也會相當稀少，有點像海恩斯維爾。所以，我認為你會看到一個典範轉移，在那個時間點，300億的液化天然氣將被全球市場完全吸收。所有這些發電廠、資料中心都開始真正拉動實際需求，同時你也會看到庫存結轉。

That will also structurally reset the market higher. And it's really a point in time where we're kind of laying the groundwork to position for, where if we do grow, all of a sudden, you're going to see a paradigm shift in pricing and that growth we add is going to be worth a tremendous amount.

這也將使市場從結構上重新走高。現在確實是我們奠定基礎的時刻，如果我們確實發展起來，突然之間，你會發現定價模式的轉變，而我們增加的成長將具有巨大的價值。

Okay. So there's nothing precluding you from moving gas wherever you want it. I guess it's the other way to ask that question.

好的。因此，沒有什麼可以阻止您將天然氣輸送到任何您想要的地方。我想這是提出這個問題的另一種方式。

Correct.

正確的。

All right. Thank you. Appreciate the time.

好的。謝謝。珍惜時間。

John Annis, Texas Capital.

約翰‧安尼斯，德州首府。

(technical difficulty) my questions. For my first one, the two supply agreements announced are for projects located in Southwest Appalachia. How would you characterize the opportunity set for EQT to secure similar agreements in Northeast PA? Or is the Southwest just more attractive with your midstream assets there?

（技術難題）我的問題。首先，宣布的兩份供應協議是針對位於西南阿巴拉契亞地區的項目。您如何看待 EQT 在賓州東北部達成類似協議的機會？還是西南地區憑藉你們的中游資產更具吸引力？

I think you're going to see the opportunity is anywhere you have EQT footprint. And that footprint can come from our midstream infrastructure. The footprint can also come from our commercial opportunities. It seems like there's a big gravitation of the tech community in Southwest Appalachia, and so we're seeing a lot of opportunities there. But I mean, our footprint is pretty massive, so we are seeing opportunities across the horizon.

我認為，只要有 EQT 業務的地方，您就會看到機會。而這個足跡可以來自我們的中游基礎設施。足跡也可以來自我們的商業機會。看起來西南阿巴拉契亞地區的科技界具有很大的吸引力，所以我們在那裡看到了很多機會。但我的意思是，我們的足跡相當廣泛，所以我們看到了廣闊的機會。

Yeah. There's also nothing that precludes us from building a, for example, 20-mile lateral off someone else's pipeline to tie into a new power plant or data center, as long as our traders can secure the capacity on the pipelines and make sure we get volume there 12 months out of the year at a price that makes sense. So again, I think between our trading arm and our midstream side of the business, in addition to our own equity volumes, we have a ton of flexibility.

是的。我們也可以在別人的管道上建造一條 20 英里長的支線，連接到新的發電廠或資料中心，只要我們的貿易商能夠保證管道的容量，並確保我們一年 12 個月都能以合理的價格獲得天然氣。因此，我認為，在我們的交易部門和中游業務之間，除了我們自己的股權交易量之外，我們還擁有很大的靈活性。

I appreciate it. And then just a quick housekeeping item on the tax front. With the tax rule changes and recently passed legislation, how does that change your outlook for cash taxes over the next couple of years?

我很感激。然後是關於稅收方面的一個簡短的整理事項。隨著稅收規則的變化和最近通過的立法，這將如何改變您對未來幾年現金稅的展望？

Yeah, that's a great question -- thanks -- actually tease up some important color that we did not cover in prepared remarks. So just the tax bill alone saves us in the next couple of years about $500 million in taxes by deferring that out. Present value, that's about $450 million. So logically, that's very front end weighted in that five-year window.

是的，這是一個很好的問題 - 謝謝 - 實際上挑逗了一些我們在準備好的評論中沒有涉及的重要顏色。因此，僅稅收法案一項就可以透過推遲繳稅在未來幾年為我們節省約 5 億美元的稅款。目前價值約 4.5 億美元。因此從邏輯上講，這是五年窗口期內前端加權的結果。

But that is also before the impact of a lot of the spending like this $1 billion opportunity for FERC-regulated projects, which is approximately like the MVP-related projects are about half of that $1 billion for perspective. FERC assets are normally depreciated under like a 15-year maker type schedule, but the rest of that is gathering CapEx. And under that new bill, which really bring back bonus depreciation up to 100%, effectively all that CapEx, we can expense day one and defer taxes on.

但這也是在大量支出的影響之前，例如 FERC 監管項目的 10 億美元機會，從角度來看，MVP 相關項目約佔這 10 億美元的一半。FERC 資產通常按照類似 15 年製造商類型的計劃進行折舊，但其餘部分則用於收集資本支出。根據這項新法案，獎金折舊實際上可以恢復到 100%，實際上所有資本支出，我們都可以在第一天就支出並遞延納稅。

And so as we ramp into this, whether it's the midstream side or then it's the upstream side with IDCs, it actually serves to push taxes off in time for us because taxes otherwise we're going to become a pretty large expense over the next couple of years. So it's really timely for that bill to happen. And that's also to look into growth because it will minimize that cost line item for us that we otherwise were anticipating.

因此，當我們進入這個領域時，無論是中游還是上游的 IDC，它實際上都有助於及時減稅，因為否則稅收將在未來幾年成為一筆相當大的開支。因此，這項法案的通過確實非常及時。這也是為了研究成長，因為它將最大限度地減少我們原本預期的成本項目。

Great update. Thanks, guys.

很棒的更新。謝謝大家。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes our question-and-answer session and also concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝大家。我們的問答環節到此結束，今天的電話會議也到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。