住宅地產 (EQR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equity Residential Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marty McKenna. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加 Equity Residential 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給 Marty McKenna 先生。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's Fourth Quarter 2024 Results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer. Alec Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us as well for the Q&A.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論 Equity Residential 2024 年第四季的業績。我們今天的特邀演講者是我們的總裁兼執行長馬克‧帕雷爾 (Mark Parrell)；我們的營運長 Michael Manelis；以及我們的財務長 Bob Garechana。我們的首席投資長 Alec Brackenridge 也在這裡參與問答。

Our earnings release and management presentation are posted in the Investors section of equity Apartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

我們的收益報告和管理介紹已發佈在 equity Apartments.com 的投資者部分。請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受一定的經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔更新或補充因後續事件而變得不真實的陳述的義務。

Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將電話轉給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results and outlook for 2025. I will start us off then Michael Manelis, our COO, will speak to our 2024 operating performance and 2025 revenue guidance; and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer, will cover our 2025 expense and NFFO guidance, then we'll go ahead and take your questions. We also posted a management presentation on our website last night with some additional detail.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早安，感謝大家今天加入我們，討論我們的 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及 2025 年展望。首先，我的營運長 Michael Manelis 將介紹我們 2024 年的營運表現和 2025 年的收入指引；我們的財務長 Bob Garechana 將介紹我們的 2025 年費用和 NFFO 指導，然後我們將繼續回答您的問題。我們昨晚也在我們的網站上發布了一份管理介紹，其中包含一些額外的細節。

And before I get to the meat of my remarks, I want to spend a minute thanking my colleagues in the Los Angeles market. For all they've done to support our residents and each other during this very difficult time. We are fortunate to have not had any property seriously impacted by the fires, but our teams and everyone else in L.A. has been through a lot. A special shout out to all of the firefighters, first responders and everyone else, who worked tirelessly to battle the blazes. Now turning to 2024. We finished the year with solid same-store revenue results that were a good bit better than the midpoint of what we had expected at the beginning of the year, but with slowing bad debt improvement in the fourth quarter, leaving us at the lower end of our previously upwardly revised guidance expectations.

在我開始正式演講之前，我想花一點時間感謝洛杉磯市場的同事。感謝他們在這個非常困難的時期為我們的居民和彼此提供的支持。我們很幸運，沒有任何財產受到火災的嚴重影響，但我們的團隊和洛杉磯的其他所有人都經歷了很多。特別向所有消防員、急救人員和所有其他為撲滅大火而不知疲倦努力工作的人們致敬。現在轉向 2024 年。我們以穩健的同店收入成績結束了這一財年，該成績比我們年初預期的中位數要好得多，但由於第四季度壞賬改善放緩，我們的業績處於之前上調的指導預期的低端。

Demand remains very good across our portfolio, with levels of supply, the main determinant of market performance. Before putting 2024 in the rearview mirror, I want to thank my colleagues across our 300-plus properties and at corporate, who once again did a great job managing expense growth while providing outstanding customer service. We are very proud of delivering same-store expense growth in 2024 of 2.9% and delivering an average of only 3.2% same-store expense growth over the past 5 years. Well done team.

我們的投資組合的需求仍然非常好，供應水準是市場表現的主要決定因素。在將 2024 年拋諸腦後之前，我想感謝我們 300 多家酒店和公司的同事，他們在提供出色的客戶服務的同時，再次出色地管理了費用增長。我們非常自豪地實現了 2024 年同店費用增長 2.9% 以及過去 5 年平均同店費用增長僅為 3.2%。團隊做得好。

And now moving on to 2025, while we are expecting similar annual same-store revenue growth as last year. The pace of our historic quarter-over-quarter revenue growth should show acceleration throughout the year with the back half of 2025 considerably better than the first half. In contrast, the deceleration in quarterly growth we saw in 2024. In both our earnings release and in the management presentation, we provided guidance for our 2025 operations. Michael and Bob are going to provide some color on that guidance in just a minute, but I want to take a moment to talk about the economic outlook that supports these guidance expectations.

現在進入 2025 年，我們預期年同店營收成長與去年相似。我們歷史性的季度營收成長速度應該會在全年呈現加速趨勢，並且 2025 年下半年的表現將明顯優於上半年。相比之下，我們在 2024 年看到季度成長放緩。在我們的收益報告和管理報告中，我們都為 2025 年的營運提供了指導。邁克爾和鮑勃將在稍後對該指導提供一些說明，但我想花點時間談談支持這些指導預期的經濟前景。

Based on the third-party economic projections, we use, we expect office-using job growth, which we see as a key driver of our business to be higher in 2025 than in 2024, especially on the West Coast. The improvement we are seeing in our downtown Seattle operations and beginning to see in the San Francisco market, both downtown and on the Peninsula are consistent with that theme. Unemployment of college graduates, the bulk of our residents is currently very low at 2.4%, and we expect it to stay in that range in 2025. With the supply of housing already tight in most of our markets, we see this setup as very positive for our business. I also note that our current earnings guidance is given by -- is driven by the positive signs we are seeing looking at our operating dashboards as well as our deep knowledge of supply and demand dynamics in our markets rather than by looking at the headlines.

根據我們使用的第三方經濟預測，我們預期辦公用途就業成長（我們認為這是我們業務的關鍵驅動力）在 2025 年將高於 2024 年，尤其是在西海岸。我們在西雅圖市中心的業務中看到的改善，以及在舊金山市場（無論是市中心還是半島）開始看到的改善都與此主題一致。占我國居民主體的大學畢業生的失業率目前非常低，為 2.4%，我們預計到 2025 年這一數字仍將保持在這個範圍內。由於我們大多數市場的房屋供應已經很緊張，我們認為這種安排對我們的業務非常有利。我還注意到，我們目前的獲利預測是由我們在營運儀表板上看到的積極跡像以及我們對市場供需動態的深入了解所驅動，而不是透過查看頭條新聞。

But we certainly acknowledge that there is a higher level of uncertainty in the forward path of the economy than usual, given various recent governmental actions relating to tariffs and other matters, the impact of these actions on the larger economy and our business is hard to estimate currently, will evolve over time and is not included in our guidance expectations. That said, being a strong cash flow business without foreign operations and with the fortress balance sheet in times of heightened uncertainty is a definitive positive. So looking at supply in our coastal established markets where we have 90% of our net operating income, we expect completions of competitive units to be similar in 2025 to 2024. But at a considerably lower level as a percentage of existing apartment inventory than in the Sunbelt markets.

但我們確實承認，鑑於最近政府在關稅和其他事項上採取的各種行動，經濟未來走向的不確定性比平時更高，這些行動對整個經濟和我們業務的影響目前很難估計，而且會隨著時間的推移而變化，且未包含在我們的指導預期中。儘管如此，在高度不確定的時期，擁有一家沒有海外業務、現金流強勁、資產負債表穩健的企業，絕對是一個利好。因此，從我們 90% 淨營業收入所在的沿海成熟市場的供應情況來看，我們預計 2025 年至 2024 年競爭性單位的完工量將類似。但其占現有公寓庫存的比例比陽光地帶市場低得多。

The localized exceptions that Michael will discuss, we expect this coastal supply to be absorbed well in these housing starved markets. So while 2025 will be similar to 2024 in terms of established market units delivered that are competitive with our properties, overall supply levels continue to be manageable. While there continues to be a lot of conversation about declines in Sunbelt starts, we think it is at least is notable that 2024 competitive starts in our coastal footprint were about half of normal levels with 2025 starts likely to be similarly restrained. In fact, as a percentage of existing inventory, total starts in our established markets in 2024, we're at rock bottom levels last seen just after the great financial crisis. As a result, we see 2026 total deliveries in our coastal markets, around 30% lower than the pre-pandemic average.

麥可將要討論的局部例外情況是，我們預計這些沿海地區的供應將在這些住房匱乏的市場中被很好地吸收。因此，雖然 2025 年在交付的與我們的物業具有競爭力的成熟市場單位方面將與 2024 年相似，但整體供應水平仍然可控。儘管關於陽光地帶開工量下降的討論仍在繼續，但我們認為至少值得注意的是，2024 年我們沿海地區競爭性開工量約為正常水平的一半，而 2025 年的開工量可能也會受到類似的限制。事實上，以現有庫存的百分比計算，2024 年我們成熟市場的總開工量處於金融危機後最低水準。因此，我們沿海市場的總交付量為 2026 架，比疫情前的平均值低 30% 左右。

In sum, the supply versus demand setup is good in our coastal markets now and will likely trend even better later this year and into 2026. Turning to our expansion markets of Atlanta, Austin, Dallas and Denver, where we have about 10% of our net NOI. We expect 2025 deliveries to be lower than in 2024, but still at an elevated level. We also expect that in 2025, these markets will still be working off the supply delivered in 2024.

總而言之，目前我們沿海市場的供需狀況良好，並且今年稍後以及 2026 年的趨勢可能會更好。轉向我們的擴張市場亞特蘭大、奧斯汀、達拉斯和丹佛，這些市場約占我們的淨 NOI 的 10%。我們預計 2025 年的交付量將低於 2024 年，但仍處於較高水準。我們也預計，到 2025 年，這些市場仍將依靠 2024 年交付的供應。

Overall, demand remains good in our expansion markets and these high job growth markets will eventually absorb the current and incoming supply, but it will take some time to do so in progress, we think will be uneven. In a moment, Michael will go over what we are currently seeing in these markets. When we apply all this to our capital allocation strategy, it confirms to us again the wisdom of having a strategically diversified portfolio. Our goal is to own an apartment portfolio that has the highest long-term total return in the sector with a focus on cash flow growth, taking into account risk and minimizing volatility. We are achieving this goal by catering to well-earning renters in the 12 or so metro areas that we think have the most desirable lifestyles for this demographic. And present the best balance of long-term demand, supply, regulatory and resiliency opportunities and risks and where we can efficiently operate our properties with our industry-leading people and systems. We made substantial progress towards our goal of having 20% of our NOI in our expansion markets by investing almost $2 billion in acquisitions and delivered development projects in these markets during 2024, while disposing of about $1 billion of older assets located entirely in our coastal markets.

總體而言，我們擴張的市場需求仍然良好，這些高就業成長市場最終將吸收現有和即將到來的供應，但這個過程需要一些時間，我們認為會不平衡。稍後邁克爾將回顧我們目前在這些市場看到的情況。當我們將所有這些應用到我們的資本配置策略中時，它再次向我們證實了擁有策略多元化投資組合的明智之舉。我們的目標是擁有該行業長期總回報率最高的公寓投資組合，重點關注現金流成長，同時考慮風險並盡量減少波動。我們透過滿足大約 12 個大都市地區高收入租屋者的需求來實現這一目標，我們認為這些地區的生活方式最適合這類人。並在長期需求、供應、監管和彈性機會與風險之間實現最佳平衡，並且我們能夠利用行業領先的人員和系統高效地運營我們的財產。我們在 2024 年投資近 20 億美元進行收購並在這些市場交付開發項目，同時處置了完全位於沿海市場的價值約 10 億美元的舊資產，朝著將 20% 的淨營運收入用於擴張市場的目標取得了實質性進展。

Our portfolios in the expansion markets feature newer, well-located properties with a healthy balance between suburban and urban. We have given guidance for $1.5 billion of acquisitions and $1 billion of dispositions in 2025. As you can see, we expect from the bulk of our acquisition activity using proceeds from dispos. We are also assuming in our guidance that we will be a net acquirer and that we will fund that acquisition activity using debt. You should expect material net acquisition activity only if, like in 2024, where we acquired using debt, the numbers support that activity. Currently, transaction activity is very light. Assuming market volatility abates, we would hope that activity would pick up. Alec Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here in the Q&A period to add color.

我們在擴張市場的投資組合以較新的、位置優越的房產為特色，在郊區和城市之間實現了良好的平衡。我們已經給出了 2025 年 15 億美元收購和 10 億美元處置的指導價。正如您所看到的，我們預計大部分收購活動都將使用出售所得收益。我們也在指引中假設我們將成為淨收購者，並將使用債務為該收購活動提供資金。只有當我們使用債務進行收購且資料支援該活動（例如 2024 年）時，您才應該期待實質的淨收購活動。目前，交易活動非常清淡。假設市場波動減弱，我們希望活動將會回升。我們的首席投資長亞歷克‧布拉肯里奇 (Alec Brackenridge) 在問答環節為大家帶來精彩內容。

Finally, I wish to thank Barry Altshuler, our regulatory affairs guru and others across the rental housing industry for doing an outstanding job advocating for pro housing solution like less regulation and better public private partnerships to encourage more supply and against anti-housing ideas like rent control. We had great success in California and across the country last quarter. Equity Residential will continue to be a leader with its industry partners and advancing pro housing policies. While political risk remains in our markets, we have definitively seen the tie turn towards more thoughtful housing policies. And a focus on quality of life and public safety in our central cities.

最後，我要感謝我們的監管事務專家 Barry Altshuler 以及租賃住房行業的其他人士，他們出色地倡導了有利於住房的解決方案，例如減少監管和更好的公私合作夥伴關係，以鼓勵更多的供應，並反對租金管制等反住房思想。上個季度我們在加州和全國各地取得了巨大的成功。Equity Residential 將繼續與其行業合作夥伴一起引領並推動專業住房政策。雖然我們的市場仍然存在政治風險，但我們已明確看到情勢轉向更周到的住房政策。並重點關注我們中心城市的生活品質和公共安全。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Michael Manelis。

Thanks, Mark, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. This morning, I will review our 4th quarter 2024 operating performance and our operating outlook for 2025. In addition to our earnings release published last night, we've also published a detailed management presentation that provides additional color on the drivers of our guidance that I will refer to.

謝謝，馬克，也謝謝大家今天的參加。今天上午，我將回顧我們 2024 年第四季的營運表現以及 2025 年的營運展望。除了昨晚發布的收益報告外，我們還發布了一份詳細的管理報告，其中詳細介紹了我們將參考的指導驅動因素。

We ended the year with continued healthy fundamentals and solid demand from a well-employed renter population, which drove strong occupancy of 96.1% and a blended rate growth of 1%, both of which met our forecast for the quarter. I'd also like to highlight that our fourth quarter turnover was just 9%, bringing our full year turnover to 42.5%, which is the lowest we have reported in our 30 year history as a public company. This clearly demonstrates our success in creating remarkable resident experiences and reflects the favorable supply demand dynamics in our portfolio.

我們以持續健康的基本面和來自就業良好的租屋人口的強勁需求結束了這一財年，這推動了 96.1% 的強勁入住率和 1% 的綜合房價增長，這兩項都符合我們對本季度的預測。我還要強調的是，我們第四季的營業額僅為 9%，全年營業額達到 42.5%，這是我們作為上市公司 30 年歷史上的最低水準。這清楚地證明了我們在創造卓越的居民體驗方面的成功，並反映了我們投資組合中良好的供需動態。

On the expense side, for the full year, we have kept growth in same store operating expenses below 3% with a special call out to the relatively flat payroll growth and 2% growth in repairs and maintenance, including a 5.5% reduction in turnover expense. This again highlights our ability to share resources across properties and minimize reliance on outsourced labor. We are pleased to report that 2/3 of our properties have a shared resource model in place, and we're excited about the additional opportunities that further automation and centralization provide.

在費用方面，我們全年同店營業費用的成長控制在 3% 以下，特別要指出的是，薪資成長相對平穩，維修和維護費用增加 2%，其中營業額費用減少了 5.5%。這再次凸顯了我們跨資產共享資源和最大限度減少對外包勞動力依賴的能力。我們很高興地報告，我們的2/3的物業已經建立了共享資源模型，我們對進一步自動化和集中化提供的額外機會感到非常興奮。

Moving to 2025, our same store revenue growth guidance range is 2.25 to 3.25%, with an expense rate growth range of 3.5 to 4.5%. Bob will provide color on the expense guidance in a moment, but let me focus your attention on the building blocks for revenue growth as detailed on page 6 of the management presentation.

展望 2025 年，我們的同店營收成長預期範圍為 2.25% 至 3.25%，費用率成長預期範圍為 3.5% 至 4.5%。鮑勃稍後將提供有關費用指導的詳細信息，但請讓我將您的注意力集中在管理報告第 6 頁詳述的收入增長基石上。

Our revenue midpoint assumes the following. We start with embedded growth of 80 basis points in 2025. This is 40 basis points lower than our starting point in 2024 and at the lower end of the historical averages, but the GAAP is largely expected to be made up through stronger leasing activity during 2025. That strong leasing activity will be driven by continued strength and overall demand from better job growth forecasted in our markets and very manageable levels of competitive new supply, particularly in our established markets which are 90% of the total portfolio.

我們的收入中點假設如下。我們從 2025 年 80 個基點的嵌入式成長開始。這比我們 2024 年的起點低 40 個基點，也處於歷史平均水平的低端，但預計 GAAP 將主要透過 2025 年更強勁的租賃活動來彌補。強勁的租賃活動將受到持續強勁的市場需求和整體需求的推動，這些需求源於我們市場預測的更好的就業成長，以及極具競爭力的新供應水平，特別是在我們成熟市場，佔總投資組合的 90%。

This is expected to yield blended rate growth between 2 and 3% for the full year, which is about 60 basis points better than what we delivered for the full year 2024, with a good portion of that improvement coming from the recovery of some of our West Coast markets that I will discuss later.

預計全年混合利率將成長 2% 至 3%，比我們 2024 年全年的業績高出約 60 個基點，其中很大一部分成長來自於我們部分西海岸市場的復甦，我將在後面討論。

We also expect continued strong resident retention as a result of both the benefits of a centralized renewal process, our enhanced data and analytics insights, and the high cost and low availability of owned housing in our markets. As I said earlier, turnover in the portfolio remains the lowest that we have seen in the history of our company, and we expect that trend to continue in 2025.

我們也預計，由於集中更新流程的優勢、我們增強的數據和分析洞察力，以及我們市場上自有住房的高成本和低可用性，居民保留率將繼續保持強勁。正如我之前所說，投資組合的周轉率仍然是我們公司歷史上最低的，我們預計這一趨勢將在 2025 年繼續下去。

This leads to approximately 3% residential same store revenue growth, which is identical to 2024, which is then partially offset by declines in non-residential same store revenue to get to the 2.75% midpoint of our guidance range as described on page 6 of the management presentation.

這導致住宅同店收入增長約 3%，與 2024 年相同，然後部分被非住宅同店收入的下降所抵消，以達到我們指導範圍的中點 2.75%，如管理層報告第 6 頁所述。

Occupancy should hold at levels similar to last year, which at that strength will allow us to capture rates.

入住率應保持與去年相似的水平，這樣我們就能獲得較高的房價。

Operating results will also benefit from our continued execution and innovation initiatives, with the majority of it running through the other income line. This year we will be focusing on our analytical efforts with data-driven pricing and retention strategies, expanding automation to drive additional operating efficiencies, and all the while endeavoring to ensure that we provide a great customer experience.

經營業績也將受益於我們持續的執行和創新舉措，其中大部分將透過其他收入線運作。今年，我們將專注於數據驅動的定價和保留策略的分析工作，擴大自動化程度以提高營運效率，同時努力確保提供良好的客戶體驗。

In 2025 we expect about 70 basis points, or nearly $20 million in other income growth, with a large majority of it coming from initiatives that we have discussed in the past and the further rollout of our internet connectivity and technology programs. Bob will walk through the associated expenses with that, but net net, these will be additive to earnings overall.

到 2025 年，我們預計其他收入將增長約 70 個基點，或近 2000 萬美元，其中絕大部分來自我們過去討論過的舉措以及互聯網連接和技術計劃的進一步推出。鮑伯將介紹與此相關的費用，但淨額將增加整體收益。

In terms of the overall market performance, Seattle and DC should lead the pack with same store revenue growth of approximately 4%. And New York and San Francisco will follow very closely behind. While we did include some further recovery in downtown Seattle and San Francisco in our guidance, both markets have the potential to outperform if we get more robust pricing power early in the year.

就整體市場表現而言，西雅圖和華盛頓特區應處於領先地位，同店收入成長率約為 4%。紐約和舊金山將緊隨其後。雖然我們的預期確實包括了西雅圖市中心和舊金山的一些進一步復甦，但如果我們在年初獲得更強大的定價權，這兩個市場都有可能表現出色。

And our expansion markets, which reflect only 10% of the total company NLI, we expect to produce negative same store revenue growth, given the impact of elevated, albeit declining levels of supply that need to work through the system.

我們擴張的市場僅占公司總 NLI 的 10%，考慮到需要透過系統解決的供應水準上升（儘管有所下降）的影響，我們預計同店營收將出現負成長。

As we look at the individual markets, let's start with Los Angeles, where I would like to echo Mark's comments with tremendous gratitude to our amazing team in this market. Our guidance does not assume potential operational impacts in either revenues or in terms of cleanup expenses from the fires that I will discuss in a moment.

當我們審視各個市場時，讓我們從洛杉磯開始，在這裡，我想重複馬克的評論，並衷心感謝我們在這個市場的出色團隊。我們的指導並未考慮火災對收入或清理費用造成的潛在營運影響（我稍後將討論）。

Here's what we have included. So first, the market will see more supply than it did in 2024, but we expect the impact on our portfolio to be manageable and consistent with last year, with the mid Wilshire, Koreatown submarket feeling the most competitive pressure, followed by the San Fernando Valley, which will see an increase but without significant impact to us. Our guidance assumes that the market will continue to work through delinquency and bad debt issues, which will contribute to additional revenue growth.

以下是我們所包含的內容。因此，首先，市場供應量將比 2024 年更多，但我們預計對我們的投資組合的影響將是可控的且與去年一致，其中威爾希爾中部、韓國城子市場感受到的競爭壓力最大，其次是聖費爾南多谷，其供應量將會增加，但不會對我們有重大影響。我們的指導假設是市場將繼續解決拖欠和壞帳問題，這將有助於額外的收入成長。

As I'll discuss in a moment, depending on the regulatory actions taken in LA, this improvement may happen more slowly than what is now assumed in our guidance.

正如我稍後將討論的那樣，根據洛杉磯採取的監管行動，這種改善可能比我們目前在指導中假設的要慢。

Physical occupancy and pricing trends started improving late last year, and we modeled the continued pace of improvement which results in our full year same store market revenue projection for LA to be around 3%. But again, this may be impacted by any regulatory limits put in place in response to the fires.

實體入住率和定價趨勢從去年年底開始改善，我們模擬了持續改善的速度，結果我們預測洛杉磯全年同店市場收入將成長 3% 左右。但同樣，這可能會受到為應對火災而實施的任何監管限制的影響。

Which brings us to the potential impact from the fires. While there has been a lot of speculation, we believe it is still too early to understand the full impact on operations. There will likely be more demand in the market as fire impacted residents seek new accommodations, especially in the 2 and 3 bedroom units, which comprise about 45% of our LA portfolio, which we have already seen in certain submarkets.

這讓我們看到了火災可能造成的影響。儘管存在著許多猜測，但我們認為現在了解其對營運的全面影響還為時過早。由於受火災影響的居民尋求新的住所，市場需求可能會增加，尤其是兩房和三房單位，這類單位約占我們洛杉磯投資組合的 45%，我們已經在某些子市場看到了這種需求。

There will also likely be cleanup expenses the company incurs from the fires and various governmental actions that could negatively impact our operations.

公司還可能因火災和各種政府行動而產生清理費用，這些都可能對我們的營運產生負面影響。

There are also likely to be twists and turns in the recovery process and governmental response. For now, we feel like the base case we outlined is our best assumption. We'll keep you posted on what happens here and anticipate that we'll have a better color on our first quarter call in April.

復甦過程和政府應對也可能會出現一些曲折。目前，我們認為我們概述的基本情況是我們最好的假設。我們將隨時向您通報這裡發生的情況，並預計我們在四月的第一季電話會議上會有更好的業績。

Staying on the west coast, San Diego and Orange County were some of the better performers last year. In 2025, we expect that these markets will continue to see good demand. Job growth in both markets is expected to exceed 2024 levels, and there is a general lack of housing. High home ownership costs make renting in these markets the most attractive option. Both markets are expected to see slightly more competitive new supply in 2025, but overall we would expect good performance here.

繼續位於西海岸，聖地牙哥和橘郡是去年表現較好的地區之一。到 2025 年，我們預計這些市場將繼續呈現良好的需求。這兩個市場的就業成長預計將超過 2024 年的水平，而且普遍存在住房短缺。高昂的房屋所有權成本使得在這些市場租房成為最具吸引力的選擇。預計 2025 年這兩個市場的新供應競爭力將略有增強，但總體而言，我們預計它們將有良好的表現。

In San Francisco, we are optimistic about the new mayoral administration and its commitment to improving the quality of life in the city. Job growth expectations continue to improve, and demand in the downtown and peninsula submarkets are strong, which should lead to additional pricing power in 2025. As I mentioned a moment ago, we have modeled some improvement in the operating conditions for the overall market of San Francisco, with growth primarily coming from both the peninsula and downtown submarkets.

在舊金山，我們對新市長政府及其改善城市生活品質的承諾感到樂觀。就業成長預期持續改善，市中心和半島子市場的需求強勁，這將導致 2025 年定價能力增強。正如我剛才提到的，我們已經模擬了舊金山整體市場的營運狀況有所改善，成長主要來自半島和市中心的子市場。

A more robust recovery is certainly possible if demand and pricing improve early enough in the year.

如果需求和價格在今年年初足夠好地改善，更強勁的復甦肯定是可能的。

Currently, concession use remains elevated in the San Francisco market, especially in the downtown submarket, but overall improved significantly in 2024. We expect with improving occupancy, we will begin to see net effective pricing improvements in the market as rents and occupancy are increasing, which will most likely lead to a further pullback and concessions if these occupancy gains home.

目前，舊金山市場的特許經營使用率仍然很高，尤其是市中心子市場，但到 2024 年整體將顯著改善。我們預計，隨著入住率的提高，我們將開始看到市場淨有效定價的改善，因為租金和入住率都在提高，如果入住率上升，這很可能會導致進一步的回調和讓步。

New supply forecast for 2025 in San Francisco is very similar to 2024 quantities, with almost no supply in downtown San Francisco, and most of it concentrated in the South Bay, where absorption has been strong.

舊金山 2025 年的新供應預測與 2024 年的數量非常相似，舊金山市中心幾乎沒有供應，大部分集中在吸收強勁的南灣。

We also are feeling really good about Seattle in 2025. Despite heightened pockets of supply, particularly in the urban core and Redmond submarkets. We finished 24 in a strong position and look to have increasing pricing power resulting from continued demand as employers like Amazon bring their teams back to the office and supply begins to abate in the second half of this year.

我們對 2025 年的西雅圖也充滿信心。儘管供應量增加，特別是在城市核心區和雷德蒙德子市場。我們以強勢地位排名 24，隨著亞馬遜等雇主讓其團隊重返辦公室並且今年下半年供應開始減少，持續的需求有望帶來不斷增強的定價能力。

Quality of life issues in the city continue to improve, and the city has a bounce in its step after a pretty good stretch in the doldrums. Competitive deliveries with our portfolio peaked in the 4th quarter of 2024, and our pricing power held up during a period of time when it normally declines. We expect Seattle to be one of our strongest revenue growth markets in 2025.

該市的生活品質問題持續改善，在經歷了相當長的低迷期之後，該市已經開始復甦。我們產品組合的競爭性交付在 2024 年第 4 季達到頂峰，並且我們的定價能力在通常下降的時期內保持穩定。我們預計西雅圖將成為我們 2025 年營收成長最快的市場之一。

Moving to the East Coast starting in Boston, with high occupancy and limited new competitive supply, this market should perform well in 2025. The market is supported by a strong employment base in finance, tech, life sciences, health, and education. Overall, new deliveries will be about the same in 2025 as last year, but the majority of the deliveries will be in the suburbs, which bodes well for us, given 70% of our assets are located in the urban core of Boston.

從波士頓開始轉向東海岸，由於入住率高且新的競爭性供應有限，該市場在 2025 年應該會表現良好。該市場受到金融、科技、生命科學、醫療和教育領域強大就業基礎的支持。總體而言，2025 年的新交付量將與去年大致相同，但大多數交付將在郊區，這對我們來說是個好兆頭，因為我們 70% 的資產位於波士頓的城市核心區。

Our urban assets outperform suburban ones in 24, and we expect that spread will be even greater in 2025.

我們的城市資產在 24 個方面的表現優於郊區資產，我們預計到 2025 年這一差距會更大。

New York was a top performer in 24, and we expect that to continue in 2025. The employment base is strong, market occupancy is high, and there's almost no new competitive supply being delivered in Manhattan, where we have the majority of our portfolio.

紐約在 24 年中表現最佳，我們預計這種勢頭將在 2025 年繼續保持。就業基礎強勁，市場佔有率高，而且我們大部分投資組合所在的曼哈頓幾乎沒有新的競爭性供應。

Washington DC was our top performer last year.

華盛頓特區是我們去年表現最好的城市。

And our expectations remain high for 2025. The absorption here has been very impressive considering that the market has been delivering more than 10,000 units a year and will do so again in 2025. We're almost 97% occupied in the market, which is a good start to the year, and the wild card here is what impact the new administration and its focus on both cost cutting and a return to office policy for federal employees will have on the local job market.

我們對 2025 年的期望仍然很高。考慮到市場每年交付超過 10,000 台並且將在 2025 年再次交付，這裡的吸收量非常令人印象深刻。我們的市場佔用率已接近 97%，這對今年來說是一個良好的開端，而這裡最大的不確定因素是新政府及其對削減成本和聯邦僱員重返辦公室政策的關注將對當地就業市場產生什麼影響。

In the expansion markets, our long-term outlook remains positive as we expect to continue to see higher than average job growth in those metro areas. But our near-term operating environment is challenging. We have seen stability in new lease rates and occupancy in Atlanta and Dallas the last two months, and while volatility is possible, we currently expect that new lease rates will improve as they usually do in the busy spring leasing season in these in these markets.

在擴張市場中，我們對長期前景依然保持樂觀，因為我們預計這些大都會地區的就業成長將繼續高於平均水準。但我們的近期經營環境充滿挑戰。過去兩個月，我們看到亞特蘭大和達拉斯的新租賃率和入住率保持穩定，雖然可能出現波動，但我們目前預計新租賃率將像這些市場在繁忙的春季租賃季節一樣有所改善。

In Denver, conditions today are challenging as we have some new deals in close proximity to our assets that could push the improvement to later in the year. Even with these hope for improvements in operating conditions, we expect same store revenue in our expansion markets to be lower in 2025 than it was in 2024.

在丹佛，如今的情況充滿挑戰，因為我們在資產附近有一些新交易，這可能會將改善推遲到今年稍後。即使經營狀況可望改善，我們預計 2025 年擴張市場的同店收入將低於 2024 年。

Looking at the overall company level as we sit here today, we really like our position. We're looking forward to capturing the opportunities the spring leasing season brings, which will help frame pricing power for the full year. I want to give a shout out for our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to our residents and focus on delivering these results. With that, I've turned the call over to Bob to walk through the rest of our guidance expectations for 2025.

從今天我們在這裡所處的整個公司層面來看，我們真的很喜歡我們的地位。我們期待抓住春季租賃季帶來的機遇，這將有助於確定全年的定價能力。我要向我們平台上的優秀團隊致以謝意，感謝他們持續為我們的居民服務並專注於實現這些成果。說完這些，我將電話轉給鮑勃，讓他介紹我們對 2025 年其餘的指導預期。

Thanks, Michael. With Michael having just walked through 2025 same-store revenue expectations, let me finish with same-store expenses, normalized FFO and provide some color on anticipated capital markets activity for 2025. Turning to expenses. Expense management remains a core strength of EQR as demonstrated over the years and during 2024. Our 2025 guidance of 3.5% to 4.5% implies somewhat higher growth in 2025 than 2024, as outlined on Page 6 of the management presentation, but still reflects that strength. As you can see, the incremental growth in expenses are stemming from a couple of items. First, connectivity expenses are adding approximately $5 million to expense growth as we deploy bulk WiFi in the portfolio.

謝謝，麥可。麥可剛剛介紹了 2025 年同店收入預期，以下讓我以同店支出、標準化 FFO 結束介紹，並對 2025 年預期的資本市場活動提供一些說明。談到費用。費用管理仍然是 EQR 的核心優勢，這一點多年來以及 2024 年都得到了證明。正如管理層報告第 6 頁所述，我們對 2025 年的預期為 3.5% 至 4.5%，這意味著 2025 年的成長率將略高於 2024 年，但仍反映了這一實力。如您所見，費用的增量源自於幾個項目。首先，隨著我們在產品組合中部署大量 WiFi，連線費用將導致費用增加約 500 萬美元。

As Michael mentioned, they are also adding revenue, so we will be accretive to NOI for the full year. Second, we have another Europe 421-a tax abatement step-ups in the New York portfolio. We're down to only a handful of properties and step-up with most nearing the end of the period. As we have mentioned in the past, once fully taxed, there is an incremental income opportunity as affordable units convert to market rate in the future. Beyond those 2 items, same-store expense growth will look relatively similar to 2024, but with a little incremental growth from utilities and payroll given the low growth in 2024, setting up a tough comparable period. Moving to NFFO. Page 8 provides some narrative around NFFO contributors outside of same store, along with a bridge to the midpoint of our guidance range. This bridge can also be found in the earnings release. Beyond residential same-store NOI, let me provide some color around a couple of the larger categories.

正如麥可所提到的，他們也在增加收入，因此我們全年的營業淨收入將會增加。其次，我們在紐約投資組合中又增加了歐洲 421-a 減稅措施。我們只剩下少量的房產，而且大多數房產都已接近售出期限的尾聲。正如我們過去提到的，一旦完全徵稅，隨著可負擔住房在未來轉換為市場價格，就會存在增量收入機會。除這兩項之外，同店支出成長將與 2024 年相對相似，但考慮到 2024 年的成長率較低，公用事業和工資支出將略有增量成長，因此這是一個難以比較的時期。轉向 NFFO。第 8 頁提供了有關同一家商店之外的 NFFO 貢獻者的一些敘述，以及通往我們指導範圍中點的橋樑。在收益報告裡也可以找到這座橋樑。除了住宅同店淨營業利潤之外，讓我來介紹幾個較大的類別。

First, transaction NOI. The majority of this contribution is coming from 2024 transaction activity and our buys themselves last year. There is some impact from our assumptions in 2025. But as Mark mentioned, this will be contingent upon what market conditions look like, so that could change. Second, interest expense. The majority of the increase in interest expense is coming from increases in anticipated balances from investment activity, mostly acquisitions, with about $0.01 of the increase also coming from refinancing of our 2025 maturity and what we expect to be a higher rate. More about that in a second.

第一，交易NOI。這項貢獻大部分來自於 2024 年的交易活動和我們去年的購買行為。我們對 2025 年的假設會產生一些影響。但正如馬克所提到的，這將取決於市場狀況，因此可能會發生變化。第二，利息支出。利息支出的大部分增加來自投資活動（主要是收購）預期餘額的增加，其中約 0.01 美元的增加也來自我們 2025 年到期的再融資以及我們預期的更高利率。稍後將詳細介紹。

And finally, lease-up NOI. The $0.01 contribution from lease-up NOI is coming from our few consolidated lease-ups. The majority of our lease-ups are from unconsolidated ventures in our expansion markets that are encumbered with project-level debt and the net income from those projects runs through the income from investments in unconsolidated entities line. 4 of these unconsolidated JV development deals were completed late in 2024 and will be leasing up throughout the year. Given current leasing velocity and the cessation of capitalized interest on loans, we do not expect these joint venture assets to contribute to NFFO growth in 2025. We've added specific guidance on this income to the guidance page of the earnings release.

最後是租賃淨營運收入 (NOI)。租賃淨營運收入的 0.01 美元貢獻來自我們的少數合併租賃。我們的租賃大多來自我們擴張市場中背負著專案級債務的非合併企業，而這些專案的淨收入貫穿於非合併實體投資收入線。其中 4 項非合併合資開發交易於 2024 年底完成，並將全年租賃。鑑於目前的租賃速度和貸款資本化利息的停止，我們預計這些合資資產不會在 2025 年為 NFFO 成長做出貢獻。我們已將有關此項收入的具體指引新增至收益報告的指導頁面。

Finally, let me briefly mention our anticipated capital markets activity for 2025. We have won significant maturity, which is a $450 million, 3.375% note due in June of this year. We would expect to refinance this note at or near the maturity, most likely with unsecured debt. We have ample liquidity and capacity under our recently expanded commercial paper program to float this pay off and be opportunistic about when exactly we refinance the maturity. All other financing activities will be dependent upon transaction activity and conditions, as Mark mentioned. Our guidance assumes $500 million to $1 billion of debt issuance because we modeled being a net acquirer of $500 million in our guidance. Expected that issuance, however, will adjust as that adjusts.

最後，讓我簡單提一下我們對 2025 年資本市場活動的預期。我們已獲得重要到期票據，金額為今年 6 月到期、票息率為 3.375% 、價值 4.5 億美元的票據。我們期望在到期時或臨近到期時對該票據進行再融資，最有可能的方式是使用無擔保債務。在我們最近擴大的商業票據計劃下，我們擁有充足的流動性和能力來支付這筆款項，並把握何時為到期款項進行再融資。正如馬克所提到的，所有其他融資活動都將取決於交易活動和條件。我們的指引假設債務發行額為 5 億至 10 億美元，因為我們在指引中模擬了 5 億美元的淨收購者。不過，預計發行量也將隨之調整。

With that, let me turn it over to the operator to begin Q&A.

說完這些，讓我將麥克風交給操作員開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Eric Wolf with City.

埃里克沃爾夫 (Eric Wolf) 與曼城隊一起。

You mentioned that same-store revenue should accelerate throughout the year. Can you just talk about how much of that is driven by other income versus improved fundamentals? And then what type of acceleration you're expecting in the second half versus first half? Or -- or where you expect to start the year versus the year however you think we should think about it?

您提到同店收入應該會在全年加速成長。您能否談談其中有多少是由其他收入推動的，有多少是由基本面改善推動的？那麼您預計下半年與上半年相比會出現什麼類型的加速呢？或者——或者您預計從哪裡開始新的一年，而不是您認為我們應該如何考慮這一年？

Yes. Eric, it's Bob, but I'll start with that kind of outlining the shape of what we expect revenue to be. the shape should be such that as you mentioned that the acceleration of the year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter growth will be higher in the back end of the year than the front end of the year. And there's 2 main drivers associated with that.

是的。艾瑞克，我是鮑勃，但我首先會概述我們預期的收入狀況。這種形狀應該是這樣的，正如您所說，年底的同比和季度增長加速度將高於年底。與此相關的主要有兩個驅動因素。

The first driver is really that we're starting the year with a lower embedded growth than historical, and a lot of the growth is coming from actual leasing activity in 2025. And so as you get to the second quarter and the third quarter, which are the prime leasing season, you start to see that contribution come through the quarter-over-quarter. And so there's a good portion of growth associated in the back-end quarters. There relative to the front quarters, which will be lower because of that lower embedded growth.

第一個驅動因素實際上是我們今年年初的內含成長率低於歷史水平，而很大一部分則是成長來自 2025 年的實際租賃活動。因此，當進入第二季度和第三季度，即主要租賃季節時，您會開始看到貢獻逐季增加。因此，後端季度的成長佔了很大一部分。相對於前季而言，由於內含成長率較低，因此收入會較低。

Additionally to that, you also have the other income, which has kind of got the same shape to it. So you have -- the other income is a lot of it, as Michael mentioned is connectivity, so you have that growth component also more weighted in the third and fourth quarter as you roll through the program of rolling out the WiFi piece.

除此之外，您還有其他收入，其形式大致相同。所以你有—其他收入的很大一部分，正如邁克爾提到的，是連接性，因此隨著你推出 WiFi 計劃，你的增長成分在第三季度和第四季度也會更加重要。

So from a kind of quarter-over-quarter perspective in same-store revenue, you should see the first quarter being the lowest and a little bit lower, and then it builds as you see the leasing activity and as you see the other income contribute overall such that you get to a higher Q4 relative to Q1.

因此，從同店收入的季度環比角度來看，您應該看到第一季是最低的，而且略低一些，然後隨著租賃活動和其他收入的整體貢獻，收入開始增加，因此第四季度的同店收入相對於第一季度有所提高。

Got it. That's helpful. And then you outlined some markets that you expect to improve throughout the year, I think many SS and Sunbelt, at least from like a blended rent perspective, maybe not from a same-store revenue for Sunbelt, but can you just talk about how much better the sort of second half blended rate growth might be versus the first half? I'm just trying to understand the sort of the degree of improvement you're expecting in those markets?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，您概述了一些您預計全年會改善的市場，我認為許多 SS 和 Sunbelt，至少從混合租金的角度來看是如此，可能不是從 Sunbelt 的同店收入來看，但您能否談談下半年的混合利率增長可能比上半年好多少？我只是想知道您預計這些市場將會出現何種程度的改善？

Yes, Eric, this is Michael. So I mean I think you would follow a shape right now. We gave some guidance in the release for the first quarter as to how blends will play out, which is the 1.4% to 2.2%. And I'll tell you, in that equation, I mean, you've heard [Micak] before about the consistency in our renewal process. So renewals are pretty much flat going month by month throughout these quarters. So I think the build, as you see the year play out, you would clearly start to accelerate in the second half of the year, which the third quarter probably having the strongest but then you would expect moderation again in that fourth quarter. So the shape doesn't look materially different than other years. It's just -- it's going to be elevated as you work your way through the middle of the year.

是的，艾瑞克，我是麥可。所以我的意思是我認為你現在會遵循一個形狀。我們在第一季的發布中給出了一些關於混合物將如何發揮作用的指導，即 1.4% 到 2.2%。我會告訴你，在這個等式中，我的意思是，你之前已經聽說過 [Micak] 關於我們更新過程的一致性。因此，在這幾個季度中，續約量逐月基本持平。因此，我認為，正如你所看到的，這項建設將在下半年明顯開始加速，其中第三季可能表現最強勁，但隨後你會預期第四季將再次出現放緩。因此形狀看起來與其他年份並沒有實質的不同。只是──隨著年中臨近，這個數字將會上升。

Got it. Thank You.

知道了。謝謝。

Steve Sokwa with Evercore ISI.

Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sokwa。

I know you're trying to get away from a ton of sort of KPIs on the leasing side kind of month-to-month and quarter-to-quarter. But could you just maybe provide some color on where our renewal rates are going out? I guess we were pleasantly surprised that, 5% renewal increase in the fourth quarter, but new leases did come in, I think, a touch weaker than we had expected. So maybe where are you sending out renewals today across the portfolio in the first quarter?

我知道您正試圖擺脫租賃方面的大量月度和季度度 KPI。但您能否提供一些關於我們的續約率的詳細資訊？我想我們感到很驚喜，第四季的續約量增加了 5％，但我認為新租約確實比我們預期的要弱一些。那麼，在第一季度，您會向哪個投資組合發送續約資訊呢？

Steve, this is Michael. So first, I just want to remind you, we do have a centralized renewal team handling our entire renewal process, including all the negotiations which has really allowed us to execute like various strategies across the markets as we see conditions changing. Right now, we're in the process of tightening up negotiations as we start dealing with renewal months that are heading into that leasing season like Mark. We have conditions that are improving in Seattle, San Francisco, L.A. We love the current occupancy position that the portfolios in. So for the next several months right now, the quotes that are out there in the marketplace are about to 7% and I'd say that we would expect to achieve increases somewhere right around that 5% kind of range. We've got good insights. We got a lot of confidence in the stability of this renewal performance in the portfolio right now.

史蒂夫，這是麥可。首先，我只想提醒你，我們確實有一個集中的續約團隊來處理我們的整個續約過程，包括所有的談判，這確實使我們能夠在看到條件發生變化時在各個市場執行各種策略。目前，我們正在加強談判，因為我們開始處理像馬克這樣的即將進入租賃季節的續約問題。西雅圖、舊金山和洛杉磯的情況都在改善。因此，就目前而言，未來幾個月市場上的報價約為 7%，我認為我們預計漲幅將達到 5% 左右。我們有很好的見解。我們目前對投資組合中更新表現的穩定性非常有信心。

Great. And then maybe on capital deployment. I know you've got net acquisition volume of $500 million, but you do have a moderately active development pipeline. I'm just curious, how does development sort of play into your thought process today where are yields on new projects? And how do those development yields kind of stack up to the acquisition yields you're looking at?

偉大的。然後也許是關於資本部署。我知道您的淨收購額為 5 億美元，但您確實擁有中等活躍的開發管道。我只是好奇，發展在您今天的思考過程中扮演了什麼角色？那麼這些開發收益與您所關注的收購收益相比如何呢？

Steve, it's Alec. It's a pretty uncertain market right now, just to be able to even start and peg an acquisition cap rate. But for the moment, assume it's a round of [5], I can't tell you there are a lot of transactions right now because the market is pretty frozen. So you'd like to think you could build to around a [6]. And I think that's the number most people are shooting for. And with rents where they are and costs not going down too much. There's been some lower costs. But overall, it's pretty hard to get to that [6] for a location you really like, unless it's really simple product. So we're seeing is more stuff being built further out further more suburban, even ex urban and not really the stuff we're crazy about. So we've been really patient. We have -- just 3 starts this year and nothing geared up yet for this -- sorry, sorry, 3 starts from last year and nothing geared up for this year. But we keep looking at if we can find the right location, which would be a place where we don't think we'll be able to buy -- and the 3 starts last year, as a reminder, we're in suburban Boston and suburban Seattle, that's what we would pursue. But right now, it's really tough to make the numbers work on something that's appealing to us.

史蒂夫，我是亞歷克。目前的市場相當不確定，甚至無法啟動並確定收購資本化率。但目前，假設這是一輪[5]，我無法告訴你現在有很多交易，因為市場相當凍結。所以你想你可以建立一個[6]。我認為這是大多數人追求的數字。而且租金仍處於現狀，成本也不會下降太多。成本有所降低。但總體來說，對於一個你真正喜歡的地點來說，要達到那個水平[6]是相當困難的，除非它真的是簡單的產品。因此，我們看到越來越多的建築建在更遠的郊區，甚至是城市之外，而這並不是我們真正熱衷的東西。因此我們一直都非常有耐心。我們 — — 今年只有 3 次啟動，還沒有為此做好任何準備 — — 抱歉，抱歉，去年有 3 次啟動，今年還沒有做好任何準備。但我們仍在尋找是否能找到合適的地點，我們認為那是一個我們無法購買的地方——去年開始的三家店，提醒一下，我們在波士頓郊區和西雅圖郊區，這就是我們所追求的。但現在，要讓數字發揮作用來滿足我們的某些需求真的非常困難。

Great thanks.

非常感謝。

John Pawlowski with Green Street.

格林街 (Green Street) 的約翰‧帕沃夫斯基 (John Pawlowski)。

I have a follow-up question on the -- your comments around supply likely being down 30% in 2026 relative to pre-pandemic -- pre-pandemic norms. I'm curious if you bifurcated that between urban and suburban. Is it fair to assume that Urban's down significantly more than that 30%. And then -- if so, how are you just thinking about your ideal market mix right now or submarket mix between urban and suburban given Urban might have a longer runway of no supply than the suburbs?

我有一個後續問題——您說 2026 年的供應量可能比疫情前的標準下降 30%。我很好奇你是否將其分為城市和郊區。是否可以合理地假設 Urban 的降幅遠超 30%。然後 —— 如果是這樣，考慮到城市的無供應跑道可能比郊區更長，您現在如何考慮理想的市場組合或城市與郊區之間的子市場組合？

John, it's Mark Parrell. First off, go Eagles, right? Second, I'll say to you, we agree, I think, with your comment, I think that's perceptive. On the urban side, we see a lot less being built, the high-rise product you need to build to make those numbers work. Frankly, don't work at all of those numbers at this point. And we see a longer runway in some of the urban submarkets. And that's why we've talked a little bit about continuing to stay exposed in our legacy established markets to the urban core and in our new markets of having a presence in urban areas as well. There's deeper pools of demand in urban areas. It's typically been more, supply, but we think that dynamic is going to change. So we like being differentiated by continuing to think of the urban centers is worthy of investment. But every city varies and Alec can amplify that. There's places that are less appealing, like frankly, Dallas, Central City.

約翰，我是馬克‧帕雷爾。首先，支持老鷹隊，對吧？其次，我要說的是，我認為我們同意你的評論，我認為這是有洞察力的。在城市方面，我們看到正在建造的高層建築少了很多，要達到這些數字就需要建造高層建築。坦白說，現在不要考慮所有這些數字。我們發現一些城市子市場的發展跑道更長。這就是為什麼我們談到繼續在我們傳統的成熟市場中保持在城市核心區的曝光度，以及在我們的新市場中也在城市地區佔有一席之地。城市地區的需求更為深厚。通常來說供應會更多，但我們認為這種動態將會改變。因此，我們喜歡透過繼續認為城市中心值得投資來實現差異化。但每個城市都有差異，亞歷克可以擴大這一點。有些地方不太有吸引力，坦白說，像是達拉斯、中心城。

And there's places like Midtown Atlanta that do have a lot of supply, but are much more appealing to our demographic. So, we're going to continue to balance that out. But we are investing in urban areas, both in our current coastal markets as well as these new kind of expansion markets that we've been focused on.

像亞特蘭大中城這樣的地方確實有很多供應，但對我們的人口統計數據更有吸引力。因此，我們將繼續保持平衡。但我們在城市地區進行投資，包括我們目前的沿海市場以及我們一直關注的這些新型擴張市場。

Yes. To Mark's point, so we do distinguish between, say, the CBD, which sometimes people think is only the only urban area. With some neighborhoods that are closer still very dense but offer a great quality of life without some of the legacy issues that we're seeing in CBDs throughout the country. .

是的。正如馬克所說，我們確實區分了中央商務區，有時人們認為這只是唯一的城市區域。有些距離較近的社區人口仍然非常密集，但卻提供了高品質的生活，而且沒有我們在全國各地中央商務區看到的一些遺留問題。。

Okay. But I guess in terms of the capital allocation read-through relative to 6 or 12 months ago, you guys being -- are you guys becoming more open-minded that your urban concentration should be higher than you expected it to be 6 to 12 months ago moving forward?

好的。但我想，就與 6 個月或 12 個月前相比的資本配置解讀而言，你們——你們是否變得更加開放，認為你們的城市集中度應該高於你們 6 到 12 個月前的預期？

I'm not sure that's changed a great deal. I think it's just the balancing act. There are a few assets in urban centers on the West Coast that we probably will sell over time because, John, we're a little over concentrated in certain submarkets. But I mean, we talked about the benefits of urban concentration even when things were difficult during COVID. The opinion has changed. We like the exposure in the urban areas. We like it. Now I think you're going to see the benefit of it in our numbers in the next year or so -- so I think having that diversification not being all suburban or ex-urban or whatnot is a good thing for us. But there's going to be markets like Dallas, where as Alec said, we're kind of a little more distant urban and a lot more suburban. And then markets like New York where we're entirely urban. And I like having that toggle. I think markets have different best spots to invest in. And -- so yes, we feel good about our urban, but frankly, we feel good about it a year ago, too.

我不確定這是否發生了很大的改變。我認為這只是一種平衡行為。我們可能會隨著時間的推移出售西海岸城市中心的一些資產，因為約翰，我們在某些​​子市場的集中度有點過高。但我的意思是，即使在疫情期間情況很困難，我們也討論了城市集中的好處。看法已經改變。我們喜歡在城市地區曝光。我們喜歡它。現在，我想您將會在明年左右從我們的數據中看到它帶來的好處 - 所以我認為這種多樣化，不全是郊區或遠郊或諸如此類，對我們來說是一件好事。但是會有像達拉斯這樣的市場，正如亞歷克所說，我們的城市有點遠，而且更偏向郊區。然後是像紐約這樣的市場，我們完全是城市化的。我喜歡有這個切換按鈕。我認為市場有不同的最佳投資地點。是的，我們對我們的城市感到很滿意，但坦白說，一年前我們也對此感到滿意。

Okay. My last question, Michael, just on the D.C. market. I know it's really early in the news flow changes by the hour. Just curious what your local team is seeing on the ground in terms of foot traffic, pricing power on existing tenants or new tenants just given the uncertainty about potential layoffs for federal employees?

好的。我的最後一個問題，邁克爾，是關於華盛頓市場的。我知道現在還為時過早，因為新聞流每小時都在變化。我只是好奇，考慮到聯邦僱員可能被裁員的不確定性，您的當地團隊在人流、現有租戶或新租戶的定價權方面看到了什麼？

Yes. It's a great question, John. So I mean, right now, I got to tell you, the D.C. portfolio is occupied 97.1% today. We have a pricing curve that's on par to slightly better than what you would expect for the beginning of the year. In terms of like the feedback on on-site right now, we haven't really seen anything kind of flow through with renewals. I think everybody is still a little bit on edge.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，約翰。所以我的意思是，現在我必須告訴你，華盛頓的投資組合今天已被佔用 97.1%。我們的定價曲線與您年初的預期持平或略好一些。就目前現場的回饋而言，我們還沒有真正看到任何與續約有關的進展。我覺得每個人還是有點緊張。

And I think as I said in my prepared remarks, there's still a lot of uncertainty on the overall impact, I guess, I would say, to demand in terms of layoffs versus this concept of bringing people back into the office, like does that neutralize each other in the demand. So I think it's still a little bit too early, but I can tell you I know there are people that are on angst right now in the market, and we just kind of need to see how this plays out over the course of the next couple of months.

我認為，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，對於裁員的需求與讓人們重返辦公室的概念的總體影響仍然存在很多不確定性，就像這是否會在需求上相互抵消一樣。所以我認為現在還為時過早，但我可以告訴你，我知道現在市場上有些人很焦慮，我們只是需要看看這種情況在接下來的幾個月裡會如何發展。

But the positioning of the market and the portfolio today is really strong.

但如今市場和投資組合的定位確實很強勁。

And the diversification of employers is a lot better in D.C., John, it's Mark than it used to be. I mean there are other employers there. There's a lot, by the way, of defense industry-related stuff, which may not be subject to the same staffing restrictions. I know some of those people weren't sent the same e-mail that I guess was sent to the general federal workforce. So I think there are definitely ups and downs there. And probably a smaller federal workforce going forward. But in terms of the D.C. focused workforce, that number might end up being higher because of the defense concentration. And as Michael said, them just asking or demanding that people be in the office. Those people that are far away are not currently renters from us and maybe new renter soon for a portfolio that is very little slack in it already.

約翰，馬克，華盛頓特區的雇主多樣化比以前好多了。我的意思是那裡還有其他雇主。順便說一句，有很多與國防工業相關的東西可能不受相同的人員限制。我知道有些人沒有收到與我猜測的發送給普通聯邦工作人員的同一封電子郵件。所以我認為那裡肯定有起有落。未來聯邦政府的勞動力可能會減少。但就以華盛頓特區為中心的勞動力而言，由於國防集中，這一數字最終可能會更高。正如邁克爾所說，他們只是要求或命令人們留在辦公室。那些離得很遠的人目前還不是我們的租戶，也許很快就會成為我們的新租戶，因為我們的投資組合中已經沒有太多空閒了。

Okay. Thanks for your time. Thank you.

好的。感謝您的時間。謝謝。

Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question is on seasonality. It seems like in the second year in a row, maybe a weaker fourth quarter, but with expectations of a stronger first quarter. So can you talk a little bit about the factors that are influencing that? And then also within the comments that it seems like the momentum should be sustained through this year into the fourth quarter of '25. So what gives you confidence that the momentum can be sustained through this year, which was kind of like the trends in the last two years?

早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於季節性的。這似乎是連續第二年，第四季可能會比較疲軟，但預計第一季會更強勁。那麼能稍微談談影響這現象的因素嗎？而評論中也表示，這種勢頭似乎應該會持續到今年到25年第四季。那麼，您如何有信心今年能夠保持這種勢頭，就像過去兩年的趨勢一樣？

Yes. Michael, this is Michael. So I think from a seasonality standpoint, I would tell you, the fourth quarter kind of played out the way we expected it to play out. I mean, you normally see deceleration. Clearly, we have some very seasonal markets like Boston is a great example of that, where you do see that deceleration occur. And then you turn the corner into January and you start your run into the spring with pricing and momentum building.

是的。邁克爾，我是邁克爾。因此，我認為從季節性的角度來看，第四季的情況與我們預期的一樣。我的意思是，你通常會看到減速。顯然，我們有一些非常季節性的市場，例如波士頓就是一個很好的例子，在那裡你確實會看到減速的發生。然後你就進入一月份，隨著定價和勢頭的增強，你開始步入春季。

So I think the shape of the curve for this year is not materially different, right? You're going to build up as you work your way through the spring and into kind of the fall and have stronger momentum and stronger kind of new lease change than what we experienced in '24 because I just think the macro indicators for us tell us that we are in for a period of stronger pricing power this year than what we had last year, but that doesn't mean that we won't see deceleration in the fourth quarter of 2025.

所以我認為今年的曲線形狀沒有實質的不同，對嗎？隨著春季和秋季的到來，您將會逐漸積累，並且會擁有比 24 年更強勁的勢頭和更強勁的新租賃變化，因為我認為宏觀指標告訴我們，今年我們的定價能力將比去年更強，但這並不意味著我們不會在 2025 年第四季度看到減速。

We would expect to see some deceleration at that time just based on normal seasonality trends in the way these markets act. But the strength in the portfolio right now gives us that confidence of having this pricing power build and some of the recovery in these West Coast markets clearly are going to put us in a position to start having stronger blended rates than what we've seen in the past.

根據這些市場正常的季節性趨勢，我們預計屆時會出現一些減速。但目前投資組合的實力讓我們有信心建立這種定價能力，而西海岸市場的一些復甦顯然會讓我們開始擁有比過去更高的混合利率。

Got it. Helpful. Second question, on the 421-a the expense component is pretty clear, but how should we be thinking about the potential benefit to these buildings in terms of revenue as restrictions burn off? And if I can squeeze one more in as well. How much Sunbelt is entering the same-store pool this year?

知道了。很有幫助。第二個問題，關於 421-a，費用部分非常清楚，但隨著限制的取消，我們應該如何考慮這些建築物在收入方面的潛在利益？如果我可以再擠一點進去的話。今年，Sunbelt 的同店銷售有多少？

Yeah, Michael, it's Ale just on the 421A question, it's really hard to project that because they don't turn the market until they vacate. So if someone stays in the unit a longer time, you obviously can't get to that unit sooner. They could move out tomorrow and we get to it right away. So it's hard to peg, but the upside is high because a lot of these rents are like, say $1.01 dollar or $50 a foot, and they could go up to $6 to $7 a foot. So there's some pretty dramatic increases that are potentially possible.

是的，邁克爾，這只是關於 421A 問題，這真的很難預測，因為他們在撤離之前不會改變市場。因此，如果某人在該單位停留的時間較長，您顯然無法提前到達該單位。他們可能明天就搬走，我們馬上就去做。所以很難確定，但上行空間很大，因為很多租金是每英尺 1.01 美元或 50 美元，而且可能會漲到每英尺 6 到 7 美元。因此，有可能出現相當顯著的成長。

Hey Michael, and on the same store component with the Sun Belt, the 2025 same store set is not materially different than the 2024 same store set. There's a couple assets coming in, to it from the Sun Belt. The majority of our transaction activity, won't hit the full year annualized same store set until 2026 because we recall that you might see it in the in in Q3 and Q4 of the quarterly set. Because we bought the assets like from the Blackstone portfolio and did most of our transaction activity in the back half of 2024 but until that you enter the full year same store set, it won't materially change until.

嘿，邁克爾，就陽光地帶的同店組成部分而言，2025 年的同店組合與 2024 年的同店組合併沒有實質差異。有幾項資產來自陽光地帶。我們的大部分交易活動直到 2026 年才會達到全年年化同店銷售額，因為我們記得您可能會在季度銷售額的第三季度和第四季度看到它。因為我們從黑石投資組合中購買了資產，而且大部分交易活動都是在 2024 年下半年進行的，但直到進入全年同店銷售之前，它都不會發生實質性變化。

206. And just to add a little more color, Michael, good question. In 2026. A lot of those units are going to be suburban. It just happens by coincidence as we built these balanced portfolios that we bought, for example, more in Denver in urban areas initially those properties are in the same store. They did really well for us, and now they're getting hurt by the supply. So you see our numbers sort of suffer disproportionately, but the non-sam store pool, which is predominantly almost entirely suburban, In those big three markets for us of Atlanta, Dallas, and Denver, when that rolls in the same store in 2026, I think that's going to be very helpful, and I think it's going to prove out the benefit of having a balanced portfolio in kind of both parts of a market, not just all suburban, not just all urban. We will have gotten benefit through the whole cycle.

206.為了增加一點色彩，邁克爾，這個問題問得好。在2026年。許多單位將位於郊區。這只是巧合，因為我們建立了這些平衡的投資組合，例如，我們購買的更多是丹佛市區的房產，最初這些房產都在同一家商店。他們為我們做得很好，但現在卻因供應而受到傷害。因此，您會看到我們的數字遭受了不成比例的影響，但非薩姆商店池主要是幾乎完全在郊區，在我們亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛這三大市場中，當它們在 2026 年進入同一家商店時，我認為這將會非常有幫助，我認為這將證明在市場的兩個部分擁有平衡投資組合的好處，而不僅僅是所有的郊區，不僅僅是所有的城市。我們將在整個週期中獲得收益。

No, thank you very much.

不，非常感謝。

Anthony Palo with JP Morgan.

摩根大通的 Anthony Palo。

I would like to shift over first to acquisition market. Can you maybe give us a sense as to where private market is right now in terms of IRRs, where thinking is for NOI growth the next few years and just how you're seeing liquidity out there?

我想先轉向收購市場。您能否從內部收益率（IRR）的角度告訴我們目前私人市場的狀況，未來幾年淨營運收入（NOI）的成長前景如何，以及您如何看待那裡的流動性？

It's Alec. There is a lot of interest in the multifamily sector. I was at NMHC and Las Vegas and everyone is eager to buy. But -- the market is really frozen right now. So people would like to buy it around [5%]. I think they probably project that to be a 7.5-ish IRR on their numbers. But the [4.5], 10-year, I'm not sure that they're ready to pull the trigger plus all the other uncertainty in the world. So right now, the markets get a bit of standstill. But with all this capital out there, plus a lot of these deals that aren't capitalized for the long run, and we're getting the sense that lenders are more likely to pull the plug on those and stop extending them, but there will be more supply available. And hopefully, in a quarter or 2, I'll be able to give you a more fulsome answer would have some examples because we expect that to happen, the market to pick up. But as it stands today, it's really theoretical because there's very, very little activity.

是亞歷克。人們對多戶型住宅領域有濃厚興趣。我去過 NMHC 和拉斯維加斯，大家都很想買。但是——目前市場確實很冷清。所以人們願意購買[5%]。我認為他們可能根據他們的數字預測 IRR 為 7.5 左右。但是[4.5]，10年期，我不確定他們是否準備好扣動扳機，再加上世界上所有其他的不確定性。因此現在市場有點停滯。但是，由於有這麼多資本，再加上許多交易都沒有為長期資本化，我們感覺貸方更有可能停止對它們進行貸款並停止延長貸款期限，但會有更多的供應。希望在一兩個季度內，我能夠給您一個更詳盡的答案，並提供一些例子，因為我們預計市場將會回升。但就目前情況而言，這實際上只是理論上的，因為活動非常少。

Okay. And then just a question for Bob. You talked about the drag in JV FFO from the development stabilizing there. Can you give us some sense as to what the difference in FFO is likely to be when those projects stabilize versus what's in your 2025 guidance?

好的。接下來我只想問鮑伯一個問題。您談到了合資企業 FFO 因發展穩定而受到的拖累。您能否告訴我們，當這些項目穩定下來時，FFO 與您 2025 年的指導相比會有什麼差異？

Yes. Let me talk about kind of how to think about that as opposed to necessarily giving a specific ['26] year-over-year. So there's 2 drivers, right? There's the "drag" from just the lease-up process. Number one, is just the NOI, right? So when you're leasing up -- and you typically incur the operating expenses before you get the revenue as you build occupancy that I think we're familiar with. So by the end of this year, from an NOI perspective, these assets will be accretive, right? Like they will have turned to be NOI positive. They will start -- they will continue to be the ramp up, you'll be over that component. They may not be FFO accretive because they have construction loans on them, and those construction loans are at 6.5% rate, they won't have gotten to the yield as we there yet, right? And so that's where you're seeing that cessation of the cap interest and the NOI kind of to cash flow streams line up.

是的。讓我來談談如何看待這個問題，而不是一定給出一個具體的['26]年成長數據。那麼有 2 名司機，對嗎？租賃過程本身就存在「拖累」。第一，只是 NOI，對嗎？因此，當您進行租賃時，您通常會在獲得收入之前產生營運費用，因為您會建立入住率，我想我們很熟悉這一點。那麼到今年年底，從淨營運收入的角度來看，這些資產將會增值，對嗎？就像它們會變成 NOI 陽性一樣。他們將開始 - 他們將持續上升，你將超越那個部分。他們可能不會增加 FFO，因為他們有建築貸款，而且這些建築貸款的利率為 6.5%，他們還沒有達到我們所處的收益率，對嗎？所以這就是您所看到的資本利息的終止和 NOI 與現金流的一致。

When you think about getting to 2026, there's 2 things to keep in mind. Number one, you'll have the positive that they will have stabilized, and you'll have probably all 4 quarters being stabilized or close to stabilized from the NOI standpoint. Number two, we're also at the buy-sell component. So we'll likely be able to exercise with our JV partners a recap of the ventures. And put what I would say, better debt on or no debt on or the acquirer in that process, and therefore, they will be much more accretive than what they were this year.

當你考慮到達 2026 年時，有兩件事需要牢記。首先，你可以肯定地說它們將會穩定下來，從淨營運收入 (NOI) 的角度來看，所有 4 個季度都可能都將穩定或接近穩定。第二，我們也處於買賣環節。因此，我們很可能與合資夥伴一起對合資企業進行回顧。就像我想說的，在這一過程中，收購方最好是承擔債務或不承擔債務，因此，他們的增值能力將比今年強得多。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great. I just want to start with the same-store revenue build. So the -- can you talk more about the nonresidential piece to the guidance? What's in there? And then, I guess, just bigger picture, what do you think -- I guess, for Bob, what do you think moves your guidance the most? I think you came out 2% below the midpoint of -- the Street, where is the most upside or downside or easiest upside or downside to your numbers on FFO?

偉大的。我只是想從同店收入開始談。那麼—您能詳細談談該指南中的非住宅部分嗎？裡面有什麼？然後，我想，從更大的角度來看，您認為是什麼——我想，對於鮑伯來說，您認為什麼最能影響您的指導？我認為您的數據比華爾街的中點低了 2%，那麼您的 FFO 數字最大的上漲或下跌空間或最容易上漲或下跌的空間在哪裡？

Yes. So let me start on the nonresidential piece. So just to remind everyone, nonresidential is about 4% of the aggregate kind of portfolio from a revenue standpoint. So it's not a huge component of the business, and it mostly consists of half of it is, I'd call it, third-party parking and the other half of it is street-level retail. That acts as an amenity to the space. The 20 basis points drag, some of you may recall that in the first quarter of 2024, under the accounting rules, we recognize because the tenants became more collectible and we'd previously written off the straight-line leases, we actually reinstated the straight line on a number of those assets. And therefore, we got a [$4.5 million-ish] kind of pick up overall to revenue. That was a onetime item that happened in Q4 that's not going to happen -- or Q1 of 2024, that's not going to happen again. And so that's that drag overall as it relates to the nonresidential piece. Otherwise, the business is largely performing the way you would expect those 2 lines of business to perform.

是的。那麼就讓我先從非住宅部分開始說吧。因此，需要提醒大家的是，從收入的角度來看，非住宅投資約佔投資組合的 4%。所以它不是業務的重要組成部分，其中主要一半是第三方停車，另一半是街道零售。這對空間來說是一種便利。20 個基點的拖累，有些人可能還記得，在 2024 年第一季度，根據會計規則，我們承認由於租戶的回收價值更高，而且我們之前已經註銷了直線租賃，因此我們實際上對其中一些資產恢復了直線租賃。因此，我們的總收入增加了 [450 萬美元左右]。那是第四季發生的一次性事件，不會再發生了——或者 2024 年第一季也不會再發生了。因此，這就是與非住宅部分相關的整體拖累。否則，業務表現基本上與您預期這兩條業務線的表現一致。

As it relates to guidance, we give you a guidance range because there are a variable series of outcomes that could occur. Obviously, within the same-store portfolio, depending on how the leasing is because we're so dependent on the leasing season this year. And our outlook looks like the leasing season. Michael mentioned some of the items that could put you on the higher end of the guidance range from same-store. It's Seattle, San Francisco performed better. if you get a bigger pickup, that could move same-store. And same-store is the largest driver to NFFO in the aggregate by far. It is the core business that makes up the vast majority of that. All the other items I would tell you are largely noise. We could do a little better in refinancing. We could do a little bit better in overhead, but those are just marginal components. It really is the growth engine of the business really is the core portfolio.

至於指導，我們會給您一個指導範圍，因為可能會發生一系列不同的結果。顯然，在同店組合中，這取決於租賃情況，因為我們今年非常依賴租賃季節。我們的前景看起來就像租賃季節。麥可提到了一些可能讓你的售價處於同店指導價區間較高端的商品。這是西雅圖，舊金山的表現比較好。如果你買了一輛更大的皮卡，那它就可以在同一個商店內移動。到目前為止，同店銷售額是 NFFO 總量的最大驅動力。其中絕大部分是由核心業務所構成。我想告訴你的所有其他事項大部分都是噪音。我們在再融資方面可以做得更好。我們可以在開銷方面做得更好一些，但這些只是邊際組成部分。它確實是業務的成長引擎，確實是核心投資組合。

Okay. And then I mean, the headlines have been fast and furious since the inauguration. So I guess just to get inside your boardroom and your C-suite, I mean what is your team talking about the most in terms of -- what's good -- what could be good for the business, what could be bad for the business over the next 4 years or maybe 2 years? And then if you could get more granular on by market, that would be interesting, too.

好的。我的意思是，自從就職典禮以來，頭條新聞就不斷出現。所以我想問一下，只是為了進入您的董事會和高階主管層，您的團隊最常談論的是什麼——什麼是好的——什麼可能對企業有利，什麼可能對未來 4 年或 2 年的企業不利？如果您可以更詳細地了解市場，那也會很有趣。

It's Mark. I'm going to start and maybe others or will contribute to that. I mean the new administration is in its very early innings. There's certainly been a lot going on, but we're only a few weeks into it. The Congress has only been convened for, little longer than that. So it's a little bit hard to tell. I want to make a comment, though, about how we think about it because there's a little bit of a bifurcation here. We've been through these periods of heightened uncertainty. We have no idea. I'm not sure anyone knows for sure what all these actions are going to do to economic growth, what they're going to do to housing demand, I mean all that remains to be seen. But we need to focus on our dashboard. So we say it internally, focus on your dashboards, not on the headlines. Michael and his team's dashboards across our 300 properties are busy watching micro demand trends, and they feel good.

是馬克。我要開始了，也許其他人也會為此做出貢獻。我的意思是新政府才剛成立。確實發生了很多事，但才剛開始幾週。國會召開的時間只是比這還要長一點。所以這有點難說。不過，我想就我們的看法發表一點評論，因為這裡存在一些分歧。我們經歷過這些高度不確定的時期。我們不知道。我不確定是否有人確切知道這些舉措會對經濟成長產生什麼影響、會對住房需求產生什麼影響，我的意思是，所有這些都還有待觀察。但我們需要關注我們的儀表板。因此我們在內部說，專注於你的儀表板，而不是標題。麥可和他的團隊在我們 300 處房產上的儀表板正忙於觀察微觀需求趨勢，他們感覺很好。

Those dashboards buy and large are green. That's the optimism you hear your management team reflect, and we're going to run the business based on what we see there. On the capital allocation side, for me, Alec, the rest of us in the Board on the refinancing side for Bob, I mean, I think this kind of situation speak some caution. I certainly think there's a fair bit of uncertainty. Uncertainty can mean opportunity when you're one of the best capitalized guys in the space like we are. So I would say I'm not sure market-by-market is that helpful. But I would say as it relates to the federal government and whatever it ends up doing, we're prepared for that, we think, as much as we can be. We are not directly impacted by things like tariffs because we aren't predominantly housing people in the manufacturing area or the foreign trade area. We are part of the bigger economy for sure. But I'll also make a comment, which I kind of alluded to in my remarks, it's pretty good to be in a business with -- that's fundamental that has no foreign operations. That has got strong cash flow and a good dividend in a time of uncertainty. My guess is companies like ours will be better valued by the Street in the next sort of uncertain period of time than maybe more speculative firms have of late.

那些買的和大的儀表板都是綠色的。這就是您聽到的管理團隊所反映的樂觀態度，我們將根據我們所看到的情況來經營業務。在資本配置方面，對我、亞歷克以及董事會其他成員來說，在再融資方面，對鮑伯來說，我認為這種情況需要謹慎。我確實認為存在相當多的不確定性。當你像我們一樣是這個領域資本最雄厚的公司之一時，不確定性可能意味著機會。因此我想說，我不確定針對每個市場進行調查是否有幫助。但我想說，因為這與聯邦政府有關，無論它最終做什麼，我們都認為我們已經做好了盡可能的準備。我們不會直接受到關稅等因素的影響，因為我們主要不是為製造業地區或外貿地區的人提供住房。我們確實是更大經濟體的一部分。但我還要發表一點評論，我在我的評論中提到過，從事沒有海外業務的業務非常好。在不確定的時期，它擁有強勁的現金流和良好的股息。我的猜測是，在未來的不確定時期內，像我們這樣的公司將比最近更具投機性的公司得到更好的華爾街估值。

So again, we're looking at all those things and like you, we'll see what happens. As for local government, I mean the big win in California was great. And, we think we did a great job there, as I said in our remarks and making the case to the people. These other states are really important regulatory-wise, places like the state of Washington will be focus points. But policy wise, I think it's the federal show, and we'll see what kind of comes next.

因此，我們再次關注所有這些事情，並且像您一樣，我們將看看會發生什麼。至於地方政府，我認為加州的巨大勝利是偉大的。而且，我們認為我們在那裡做得很好，正如我在演講中和向人們陳述的那樣。從監管角度來看，這些其他州確實非常重要，像華盛頓州這樣的地方將成為關注的焦點。但從政策角度來看，我認為這是聯邦政府的節目，我們拭目以待接下來會發生什麼。

Julian Bluin with Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱利安布魯因。

Just wondering, in L.A., how you're thinking about the profitability of those rent freezes and eviction moratorium proposals passing. I don't know if there's sort of stuff you're hearing from your teams on the ground that can maybe sort of give us an indication?

只是想知道，在洛杉磯，您如何看待那些凍結租金和暫停驅逐提案的盈利能力。我不知道您是否從實地團隊那裡聽到了一些可以給我們一些線索的消息？

Yes. Thanks for your question. I appreciate that. You got to start off whenever you talk about daily fires, by the huge level of empathy we have for our colleagues in that market for our residents, for the whole community. I mean they've been through a lot, and it's been a real tough process. We think we've been really supportive and responsible corporate community participant. We've been supporting charities in that market. that are working on relief efforts. We've been supporting our residents and our employees, including being really thoughtful about rent even before the governor put his anti-gouging order, which by the way covers goods and services, not just rent into place.

是的。感謝您的提問。我很感激。每當您談論日常火災時，您必須先想到我們對該市場的同事、我們的居民、整個社區的巨大同情。我的意思是他們經歷了很多，這是一個非常艱難的過程。我們認為我們一直是真正支持和負責任的企業社群參與者。我們一直在支持該市場的慈善事業。正在進行救援工作。我們一直在支持我們的居民和員工，包括在州長發布反哄抬租金的命令之前就對租金深思熟慮，順便說一句，該命令涵蓋商品和服務，而不僅僅是租金。

So we think we've been very thoughtful about those sort of things. We think these ideas, one of which is a sort of a pretty broad eviction moratorium that's being considered are just terrible ideas. This market continues to recover from the 3-year plus COVID eviction moratorium, which was broad-based and not well policed and really caused a lot of disruption. And even worse for L.A., which desperately need a ton of housing investment to rebuild and needs it to just house the people even before the fires didn't have enough housing for. This is really discouring. This is the consideration of these sort of anti-housing measures like eviction moratoriums again, further the reputation L.A. has a being anti-business and anti housing, and it pushes capital away.

所以我們認為我們已經非常認真地考慮過這些事情了。我們認為這些想法，其中之一就是正在考慮的相當廣泛的驅逐禁令，都是糟糕的想法。這個市場繼續從為期 3 年以上的 COVID 驅逐禁令中恢復，該禁令範圍廣泛且監管不力，確實造成了許多混亂。而對洛杉磯來說情況就更糟了，它急需大量的住房投資來重建，甚至在火災發生之前就已經沒有足夠的住房來安置人們了。這真是令人沮喪。這是對類似驅逐禁令之類的反住房措施的再次考慮，進一步加深了洛杉磯反商業、反住房的名聲，並將資本推開了。

So that's the argument we're making with our local associations. Like I said, I think there's more effective ways to do this. There's a lot of relief money the federal government and state have, I understand if there's folks that need help specifically on rent, I'm sure that mechanics can be created to be helpful there, but some sort of broad-based sort of rule in an area that large just makes very little sense to us. And same goes for any rent control besides what the governor put out there on the anti-gouging side. It's just, again, we and others have been pretty responsible. If you want to encourage housing production you have to send the right price signals. And I think more and more regulation is not the signal. We're so encouraged about Seattle and San Francisco. They're doing so much better being pro business and pro housing. And we just hope L.A. comes along. That market is still not there on the government side, and we're going to continue to advocate for it to turn.

這就是我們與地方協會提出的論點。正如我所說的，我認為有更有效的方法可以做到這一點。聯邦政府和州政府有很多救濟金，我知道如果有人特別需要房租方面的幫助，我相信可以製定一些機制來幫助他們，但是在這麼大的地區實施某種廣泛的規則對我們來說毫無意義。除了州長提出的反對哄抬租金的措施外，任何租金管制措施也都適用同樣的規定。只是，我們和其他人都相當負責任。如果你想鼓勵住房建設，你就必須發出正確的價格訊號。我認為越來越多的監管並不是訊號。我們對西雅圖和舊金山感到非常鼓舞。他們在支持商業和住房方面做得更好。我們只是希望洛杉磯也能加入。政府方面仍未形成這樣的市場，我們將繼續倡導其轉變。

That's really helpful. And I guess as a second one, sorry if I missed it, but did you provide January new lease rate growth in [plans] -- or is there sort of -- can you give us a sense of where they landed relative to the 1.4% to 2.2% range for the first quarter plans?

這真的很有幫助。我想問第二個問題，如果我錯過了，請見諒，但是您是否提供了 1 月份新租賃利率的增長情況（計劃）——或者是否有——您能否告訴我們，相對於第一季計劃的 1.4% 到 2.2% 的範圍，它們處於什麼位置？

Joy, it's Michael. So I think I've explained this in the past that these metrics are best used like over a longer period of time versus the stand-alone months, especially given the small quantity. So you didn't miss it. because I haven't said it. What I will tell you is that we are seeing sequential improvement, which is what you would expect in the month of January. And based on this full year expectation, 2% to 3% blended rate growth. We anticipate the first quarter is going to come in between the 1.4% and 2.2% that we included in the press release. As I mentioned last quarter, these states have a lot of variability in them. And the quantity of transactions in either new lease or renewals can impact the reported blended rates in any given quarter or even a month.

喬伊，我是麥可。因此，我想我過去已經解釋過這一點，這些指標最好在較長的時間段內使用，而不是單獨的月份，尤其是在數量較少的情況下。所以你沒有錯過。因為我還沒說過。我要告訴你們的是，我們看到了連續的改善，這正是你們在一月所期望的。根據全年預期，混合利率成長率為 2% 至 3%。我們預計第一季的成長率將在新聞稿中所述的 1.4% 和 2.2% 之間。正如我上個季度提到的，這些州存在著很大的可變性。新租約或續租的交易數量都會影響特定季度甚至一個月的報告混合利率。

So we always have these various puts and takes in our revenue model and the new lease change is only one of these variables in the equation that happens to be very dependent upon who moves out. which is why you've seen a shift towards providing ranges of blended rate results by quarter. And I guess I would just stop by the fourth quarter came in exactly where we thought it would be. And I think right now, when we're looking at the dashboards and seeing what we think, we have a lot of confidence in that first quarter range that we put out there.

因此，我們的收入模式中總是有各種各樣的投入和產出，而新的租約變更只是等式中的一個變量，而這個變量恰好在很大程度上取決於誰搬出。這就是為什麼您會看到轉向按季度提供混合利率結果範圍。我想，我會在第四節停下來，看看它是否正如我們所想的那樣。我認為現在，當我們查看儀表板並了解我們的想法時，我們對我們公佈的第一季範圍非常有信心。

Okay great thank you.

好的，非常感謝。

John Kim with BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場的 John Kim。

That's L.A.. I know you want to be conservative and there's -- maybe it's too early to come out with any guidance impact. But you did mention that you expect occupancy or demand to increase for your larger units. And I was wondering how much of that you've already seen in January, if you could provide possibly an occupancy number for L.A. and Orange County in January?

那就是洛杉磯。我知道你想保持保守，但也許現在得出任何指導性影響還為時過早。但您確實提到，您預計較大單位的入住率或需求將會增加。我想知道您在一月份已經看到了多少，您是否可以提供一月份洛杉磯和奧蘭治縣的入住率數據？

John, this is Michael. So I guess I want to say [too]. In the fourth quarter, right, we actually felt better. Like you heard me say that even on the last call, that we started to see this improvement. We started to see the improvement in demand that allowed us to backfill. So the occupancy for the fourth quarter, I think ticked up to like [$95.8 million]. We originally modeled this market to have additional improvement both with some rate recovery and additional occupancy gains. And in the month of January right now, I would say we're seeing some of that incremental improvement Specific to the fires and specific to my comment I had in the prepared remarks, 45% of our portfolio is 2 and 3 bedrooms. We initially saw kind of that spike in demand for that type of unit really hyper focused in 3 submarkets: Ventura County, Glendale, Pasadena and West L.A. and both Venture and Glendale are very small. We only have a few assets in those submarkets.

約翰，這是麥可。所以我想說[也]。在第四節，我們確實感覺好多了。就像您聽到我說的那樣，即使在上次通話中，我們也開始看到這種改善。我們開始看到需求的改善，這使我們能夠進行補充。因此，我認為第四季的入住率會上升到[9,580 萬美元]。我們最初對這個市場的模型是希望能夠透過一些費率恢復和入住率的增加來實現額外的改善。而現在在一月份，我想說我們看到了一些漸進式的改善，具體到火災方面以及我在準備好的評論中的評論，我們的投資組合中有 45％ 是 2 居室和 3 居室。我們最初看到對此類單位的需求激增，主要集中在 3 個子市場：文圖拉縣、格倫代爾、帕薩迪納和西洛杉磯，而文圖拉縣和格倫代爾都非常小。我們在這些子市場僅擁有少量資產。

So, we did see some of this incremental demand, but it's not like you see this kind of widespread kind of increase coming across the entire broader market. So I think I just want to stand back and just say, our base case still kind of holds. We do believe this market is ripe for improvement. We saw some of that happening in the fourth quarter. I think there will be some incremental play with the occupancy in the market. But I'm not sure at this point, we have enough confidence to say that it's like a significant shift to the underlying base case that we put out there.

因此，我們確實看到了一些增量需求，但並不意味著整個市場都出現了這種普遍的成長。所以我想我只是想退一步來說，我們的基本情況仍然成立。我們確實相信這個市場已經具備了改善的條件。我們在第四季看到了一些這樣的情況發生。我認為市場佔有率會有所提高。但目前我還不確定，我們是否有足夠的信心說，這就像是對我們提出的基本情況的重大轉變。

Yes, I'm just curious on the timing. I would have thought that the spike, if there were any, would have already occurred and people are displaced. But is it because people will have the place and went to taper housing or?

是的，我只是對時間感到好奇。我原本以為，如果出現高峰，那應該已經出現，而且人們已經流離失所。但不是因為人們有了地方，就紛紛去縮減房屋供應了呢？

Yes. I mean I think part of this is a geography, like where do they get displaced? Are these families that have children that were in schools that need to stay close. So I think a lot of this is the geography, which is if you think about the 3 submarkets I laid out, we're not surprised that we saw that initial demand. And there's no doubt. In those 3 submarkets, we clearly saw an increase in demand for 2 and 3 bedrooms over the course of 2 to 3 weeks following these fires. So I just -- right now, we're still trying to see how does all of this stuff settle out? And where do people really kind of want to live longer term. And that's kind of what we're focused on this broader demand in the market.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這部分是地理問題，例如他們在哪裡流離失所？這些家庭的孩子都在上學，因此需要住在附近。所以我認為這很大程度上是地理位置的原因，如果你想想我列出的三個子市場，我們就不會對看到最初的需求感到驚訝。毫無疑問。在這 3 個子市場中，我們明顯看到火災發生後的 2 到 3 週內，對 2 房和 3 房的需求增加。所以我只是——現在，我們仍在試圖看看所有這些事情如何解決？人們真正想長期居住的地方是哪裡？這就是我們關注的市場更廣泛的需求。

Okay. My second question is on your blended lease growth guidance of 2.5%. If you could break that out between new and renewal, it would seem to imply if you have renewals of 5% that new would be flattish. And I'm wondering, just given the market runs about why new lease growth couldn't be higher?

好的。我的第二個問題是關於你們 2.5% 的混合租賃成長預期。如果您可以將其分為新增量和續約量，似乎意味著如果續約量為 5%，則新增量就會持平。我很好奇，鑑於市場運作情況，為什麼新租賃成長不能更高呢？

I think it's really just -- I mean, so you're not off with kind of that underlying assumption that's one way to get to that blended rate growth of 2.5%. And I think what you see is it's very common. Again, we have these data points going all the way back to 2006, we understand how these market seasonality components play into both new lease renewals and pricing trend.

我認為這真的只是——我的意思是，所以你並沒有偏離那種潛在的假設，這是實現 2.5% 混合利率成長的一種方法。我認為您所看到的這種情況非常常見。再次，我們將這些數據點追溯到 2006 年，我們了解這些市場季節性因素如何影響新租約續約和定價趨勢。

It is not uncommon for us to see negative new lease in the fourth quarter, negative new lease in the first quarter even that then put some of that downward pressure into that blended. So you're right that at the end of the year, you may walk away and have a new lease rate kind of growth that effective at 0. But I think some of these markets are also positioned right now where you could see an additional pullback in concessions.

我們看到第四季新租賃出現負成長的情況並不少見，甚至第一季的新租賃出現負成長也會對混合帶來一些下行壓力。所以你說得對，到年底，你可能會離開，並迎來一種新的租賃利率增長，實際上為 0。但我認為，其中一些市場目前的狀況可能會讓你看到優惠進一步回檔。

So maybe some of that net effective ticks up a little bit. But we're not saying that we're not going to see normal seasonal trends play out.

因此，或許淨效益會上升。但我們並不是說我們不會看到正常的季節性趨勢。

There was a prior question about where the opportunity lies in our numbers, and I think you've done a good job of saying where it is. I mean it's new lease growth. It won't totally defy seasonality. But if we're reporting better numbers on new lease through the year, even if the fourth quarter is negative, but the second and third are more positive than we think, that's going to be the way early enough in the year where the numbers will move around to the good.

之前有一個問題是我們的數值中存在什麼機會，我認為您已經很好地說出了機會在哪裡。我的意思是新租賃的成長。它不會完全違背季節性。但如果我們報告的全年新租賃數據更好的話，即使第四季度是負數，但第二和第三季度的數據比我們想像的要正數，那麼今年年初數據就會轉好。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Haendel Juste, Mizuho.

Haendel Juste，瑞穗。

I was hoping to get a bit more color on some of those blended rent expectations by region. And maybe, I guess, most of us assume that East Coast blend should be better than West Coast and Sunbelt will lag, but I was hoping you get a bit more color on perhaps the range or or a sense of the expectation for blends by region?

我希望能更詳細地了解各地區的混合租金預期。也許，我想，我們大多數人都認為東海岸的混合應該比西海岸更好，而陽光地帶會落後，但我希望您能對範圍有更多的了解，或者對各地區混合的期望有一點了解？

Yes. Haendel, it's Michael. So I mean I think what you should think about is the West Coast recovery is going to drive improving blends in the West Coast markets, all of the West Coast markets, even including the Southern California portfolio. I think we're going to continue to see strength in the East Coast markets, so maybe similar kind of blend than what you saw this year.

是的。韓德爾，我是麥可。所以我的意思是我認為你應該考慮的是西海岸的復甦將推動西海岸市場、所有西海岸市場、甚至包括南加州投資組合的改善。我認為我們將繼續看到東海岸市場的強勁表現，因此可能與今年看到的混合情況類似。

And then in the expansion markets, you kind of see a little bit of this stability right now for us in Atlanta and Dallas. And my hope is that as we kind of work our way towards the spring season, you start to see either rates improving or concessions falling back that then show you not only stability and blends, but a little bit of this path to recovery of blends that sets you upgrade for 2026.

然後在擴張市場中，您現在在亞特蘭大和達拉斯可以看到一點這種穩定性。我希望，隨著春季的臨近，您會開始看到費率提高或優惠減少，這不僅會向您展示穩定性和混合性，而且還會向您展示混合性復甦的一點道路，這將為您在 2026 年的升級做好準備。

Okay. That's helpful. And on the subject of concessions, can you talk a little bit about where concessions are today in your San Fran and Seattle portfolios and where we -- or maybe where you'd expect them to trend over the next couple of quarters and how much of a tailwind that could be into the back half of the year?

好的。這很有幫助。關於優惠政策，您能否談談目前您在舊金山和西雅圖的投資組合中的優惠政策情況，或者您預計未來幾個季度優惠政策的趨勢如何，以及對今年下半年的利好作用有多大？

Yes. So I mean I think on the concession use overall, right? The fourth quarter came in exactly kind of where we thought it would be. We lean into this occupancy during the slower periods of time. We saw significant reductions in San Francisco while holding a solid occupancy of 96%. And then Seattle saw a 100 basis point improvement in occupancy but we had similar concessions there to the fourth quarter of 2023. So I think as you think about concessions in the marketplace right now, specifically in those 2 markets, it's still kind of elevated. San Francisco is still a concessionary market especially that downtown.

是的。所以我的意思是我認為總體上是使用優惠政策，對嗎？第四節的表現正如我們所預期的。在業務較空閒的時期，我們傾向於採用這種佔用方式。我們發現舊金山的入住率大幅下降，但入住率仍維持在 96% 左右。然後西雅圖的入住率提高了 100 個基點，但我們對 2023 年第四季也做出了類似的讓步。因此我認為，當你考慮到目前市場上的讓步時，特別是在這兩個市場，它仍然有點高。舊金山仍然是一個特許經營市場，尤其是市中心。

But I think what we're looking at right now is total revenue because if you have the demand and have the occupancy, you could see base rents start picking up in those markets, which is what we've kind of been doing even though the concessions kind of stay neutral. Our expectations as we work through this year is that the concession use will start to kind of moderate. We did model for fewer concessions in '25 than we used in 2024. And I think we see some of the strength right now and the positioning of the portfolio that gives us confidence that, that could play out.

但我認為我們現在關注的是總收入，因為如果有需求並且有入住率，你會看到這些市場的基本租金開始上漲，這正是我們一直在做的事情，儘管優惠政策保持中立。我們今年的預期是，特許經營的使用將開始有所緩和。我們確實模擬了 2025 年的讓步數量比 2024 年少。我認為，我們現在看到的一些優勢和投資組合的定位讓我們有信心，這些優勢可能會發揮作用。

That's helpful. And if I could just ask about the same-store expense guide. You put out the range out there. I appreciate that, but any details perhaps on the buildup for items, including taxes, insurance, R&M. So maybe some color on the components?

這很有幫助。我是否可以詢問同店費用指南？你把範圍放在那裡。我很感激，但是能否提供關於項目積累的詳細信息，包括稅收、保險、R&M 等？那麼組件上可能有一些顏色嗎？

Yes. Haendel, it's Bob. Page 6 gives you a little bit of the contribution to growth overall. But -- so ex kind of the 2 called out items, which are the connectivity expense and the real estate tax expense, I think the 2 biggest call-outs and I mentioned them in terms of like growth that is dissimilar or maybe greater than what you saw in 2024, would be utilities. Utilities is one of them that you're just seeing higher commodity prices, continued pressure in -- and we also, frankly, had a really good year in 2024. So utilities is probably growing in the more mid to mid-single digits than kind of lower single digits. So that will contribute to growth more in '25 than it did in 2024.

是的。亨德爾，我是鮑伯。第 6 頁給了對整體成長的一點貢獻。但是 — — 舉例來說，在提到的兩個項目中，即連接費用和房地產稅費用，我認為兩個最大的問題，以及我提到它們在增長方面與 2024 年不同或可能更大的問題，是公用事業。公用事業就是其中之一，您會看到大宗商品價格上漲，持續承壓 - 而且坦白說，2024 年也是我們的好年頭。因此，公用事業的成長率可能更多地是在中等到中等個位數，而不是較低的個位數。因此，這對2025年的成長貢獻將大於2024年。

Same thing with repairs and maintenance. Repairs and maintenance, the headline number will look really big because the connectivity expense is mostly in that line item or is in that line item. But outside of that, you just have some wage pressure and some typical stuff. And then payroll we model to be more like a typical 3% range. And we've had phenomenal payroll experience over multiple years, but last year, '24 in particular, where it was flat. So -- those are probably the main category items. I know people are typically interested in insurance because insurance, although a small category has been growing really fast. We did model that. We expect it to be, call it, high single digits as opposed to low double digits. So some improvement in that market, we don't renew until March.

維修和保養也是一樣。維修和維護，總體數字看起來會很大，因為連接費用大部分包含在該項目中，或包含在該項目中。但除此之外，你還會面臨一些薪資壓力和一些典型問題。然後，我們建模的薪資單更像典型的 3% 範圍。我們多年來一直擁有出色的薪資經驗，但去年，尤其是 24 年，薪資持平。所以 —— 這些可能是主要類別的項目。我知道人們通常對保險感興趣，因為保險雖然只是一個小類別，但成長非常快。我們確實模擬了這一點。我們預計它將是高個位數，而不是低兩位數。如果該市場有所改善，我們將等到三月才會續約。

And I'm just going to add some color on insurance here for a minute because we have a unique perspective to share. Our risk management team just happened to be in London meeting with our (inaudible) and some of our insurance carriers just to the fires in L.A. and so we had the opportunity to ask them how the market fell to them and what might happen with commercial renewals. And their response was they didn't expect much of an impact and that they add capacity and they had had good financial results lately. And so we are feeling optimistic about where we may end up, including thinking you could get close to flat on this renewal or somewhere in that range. And I say all that because the fires appear not to have reached reinsurers at their level.

我只想在這裡稍微談談保險，因為我們有一個獨特的觀點可以分享。我們的風險管理團隊恰好在倫敦與我們的（聽不清楚）和一些保險公司會面，討論洛杉磯的火災，因此我們有機會詢問他們市場對他們的影響以及商業續保可能會發生什麼。他們的回應是，他們預計不會產生太大的影響，而且他們增加了產能，最近取得了良好的財務表現。因此，我們對最終的結果感到樂觀，包括認為這次續約的結果可能會接近持平或處於這個範圍內。我之所以這麼說，是因為火災似乎還沒有波及到再保險公司的層面。

And their experiences lately post some of the earth -- the big increases after the hurricanes is that they've built up reserves and there is more capacity in the insurance market. So Again, we're feeling optimistic about that renewal, as Bob said, that occurs for property for us in March, but some early indications from our reinsurers and some of our primary insurers are is they're in a pretty good position that the fires in Los Angeles were terrible, but probably won't affect that part of the insurance market and us very much.

他們最近的經驗表明，颶風過後，保費大幅增加，是因為他們累積了儲備金，保險市場也有了更大的容量。所以，正如鮑勃所說，我們對 3 月份我們的財產險續保感到樂觀，但我們的再保險公司和一些主要保險公司的一些早期跡象表明，他們處於相當有利的位置，雖然洛杉磯的火災很嚴重，但可能不會對那部分保險市場和我們造成太大影響。

Appreciate the call guys.

感謝你們的來電。

Brad Heffer with RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行的布拉德‧赫弗 (Brad Heffer)。

One thing that hasn't come up in the political discussion so far as immigration obviously, just as many unknowns there as in the other things. But how much of an impact do you think that could potentially have on the business? And how would you view it differently between the expansion markets and the legacy portfolio?

到目前為止，移民問題顯然還沒有在政治討論中被提及，因為該問題和其他問題一樣，存在許多未知數。但您認為這可能會對業務產生多大影響？您如何看待擴張市場和傳統投資組合之間的差異？

So, Brad, this is Michael. Maybe I'll start and somebody else can weigh in. So I think from the operations standpoint, there's actually 2 areas to think about when we look at what's going on with immigration. First is on the resident side of the business, right, in terms of are you seeing kind of less demand from people coming in from foreign countries? Or are you seeing lease breaks or people leaving you due to kind of deportation or immigration risk. And honestly, right now, we haven't seen any of that. I mean the absolute count of transactions for us with foreign activity is really low in the fourth quarter, but both from the move in and the move-outs, they're trending in line with our historical norms.

那麼，布拉德，這是邁克爾。也許由我來開始，然後其他人可以參與其中。因此我認為從營運的角度來看，當我們觀察移民問題時，實際上有兩個面向需要考慮。首先是從業務的居民方面來看，您是否發現來自外國的遊客的需求減少？或者您是否看到租約中斷或有人因驅逐出境或移民風險而離開您。老實說，現在我們還沒有看到任何這些。我的意思是，第四季度我們的海外活動交易的絕對數量確實很低，但無論是從遷入還是遷出來來看，它們的趨勢都符合我們的歷史規範。

The other part of the business that we're watching really closely relates to this contract service providers and whether or not they're going to be put in a position where they're not going to be able to provide services to us or try to increase rates. So right now, we have not heard anything of any issues impacting our vendors and their ability to continue to provide services to us. So from the operations standpoint, it still feels like it's just too early to tell what impact that this could have. And I think when we look at all of this, even inside of our vendor pool and inside of our resident base, these are just such small percentages of the total population that we deal with, whether that's the vendor population or within our renter base. In the renter side of the world, foreign move-ins are like 2% to 3% of our move-ins.

我們密切關注的另一部分業務與合約服務提供者有關，以及他們是否會陷入無法為我們提供服務或試圖提高費率的情況。所以現在，我們還沒有聽到任何影響我們的供應商及其繼續為我們提供服務的能力的問題。因此，從營運的角度來看，現在判斷這會產生什麼影響還為時過早。我認為，當我們考慮所有這些時，即使在我們的供應商池內部和居民群體內部，這些也只是我們所處理的總人口的一小一部分，無論是供應商人口還是租戶群體。在租屋方面，外國遷入者約占我們遷入者的 2% 到 3%。

So it's just not a significant kind of quantity for us to be overly concerned about.

所以這個數量並不值得我們過度擔心。

Okay. Got it. And then on the West Coast tech markets, can you just give your base case for market rent growth in those markets for '25? And then you've talked about the potential for outperformance? Any sort of scale as to what that outperformance could look like would be great as well.

好的。知道了。那麼，在西海岸科技市場，您能否給出 25 年這些市場的市場租金成長的基本情況？然後您談到了優異表現的潛力？任何有關這種優異表現的衡量標準都是很好的。

Yes. Well, I think I said in my prepared remarks, Seattle is projected right now to be the strongest revenue growth, which is makes me very proud to say that because it's nothing we've been able to save for many years now, but that is projected to have revenue growth, call it, around for the year, which would be some of the best revenue would be the highest revenue growth that we have in the portfolio. San Francisco is a little bit less on that, so it's probably more like in the mid-3% range. But again, that's a pretty solid number coming off of a 1.5% growth. that we saw in 2024. So in terms of like the outperformance, it really comes down to the strength that Mark just mentioned a little bit earlier. When do we see this pricing power strength? How early in the leasing season how many leases can we capture at that to have it translate into revenue growth for 2025.

是的。嗯，我想我在準備好的發言中說過，西雅圖目前預計收入增長最為強勁，這讓我非常自豪，因為這是我們多年來一直無法挽回的損失，但預計今年的收入將有所增長，這將是我們投資組合中收入增長最高的地區之一。舊金山的比例稍微低一些，所以可能在 3% 中間範圍內。但同樣，在 1.5% 的成長率下，這是一個相當可觀的數字。我們將在 2024 年看到這一情況。因此，就優異表現而言，這其實歸結於馬克剛才所提的實力。我們何時才能看到這種定價權的強勢？在租賃季節多早的時候我們可以獲得多少租賃才能轉化為2025年的收入成長。

So there's 2 plays. The biggest drivers are occupancy and rate. And if you're going to get the rate, it's got to be early in the year were it to really make a big difference in the full year revenue guidance.

因此共有 2 部劇。最大的驅動因素是入住率和房價。如果你要獲得利率，那麼必須在年初就獲得利率，這樣才能對全年收入指引產生重大影響。

Okay appreciate it thanks.

好的，非常感謝。

Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫‧斯佩克特 (Jeff Spector)。

Great, thank you. Can you elaborate on your comment that you expect record retention to stay, record low turnover to stay in '25?

太好了，謝謝。您能否詳細說明您預計記錄保留率將保持不變、記錄低營業額將保持在 25 年的評論？

Yes. This is Michael, Jeff. So thanks for that. We have actually seen this now for 2 years in a row. And I think part of this is the housing equation or the move-outs to buy home or at record lows. We don't really see anything kind of in the immediate future to suggest that, that's going to be materially different for us in 2025 even if you saw like mortgage rates contract a lot, that would probably mean that values and houses go up. So we don't really see this being like a light switch impact that's going to change. We also see this improvement in office using job growth.

是的。這是邁克爾，傑夫。非常感謝。事實上，我們已經連續兩年看到這種情況了。我認為部分原因是住房問題或為了買房而搬出住房或房價處於歷史低點。我們確實沒有看到任何跡象表明，在近期，這對我們來說在 2025 年將會發生實質性的變化，即使你看到抵押貸款利率大幅收縮，這可能意味著價值和房價會上漲。所以我們並不認為這像電燈開關那樣能帶來改變。我們也看到辦公用途就業成長方面的改善。

So therefore, on the demand side of the equation, we're not overly concerned about seeing lease breaks from people losing their jobs. So all of the macro drivers in this reported turnover number, the reasons for move-out, we just don't see anything telling us to expect any significant changes this year. And we're really focused we get so many data points -- it's like 200,000 data points from our customers every year. We're hyper focused on making sure we are delivering a seamless, exceptional customer experience to our residents. And I think that's showing up in these turnover numbers.

因此，從需求方面來看，我們並不太擔心因為人們失業而導致租約中斷。因此，對於報告的營業額數字中的所有宏觀驅動因素以及遷出的原因，我們都沒有看到任何跡象表明今年會發生重大變化。我們非常專注於獲取大量數據點——每年我們從客戶那裡獲取大約 200,000 個數據點。我們高度重視確保為我們的居民提供無縫、卓越的客戶體驗。我認為這從這些營業額數字就可以看出來。

Great. And then one follow-up on the urban conversation. Are you looking into any of the office to resi conversions as an opportunity for your company?

偉大的。然後對城市對話進行追蹤。您是否正在考慮將辦公室改建成住宅，為貴公司帶來機會？

Jeff, it's Alec. We've got a lot of experience owning buildings that have been converted from office to residential. And also seen how other people have gone through that process, and it's a tough process. But we wouldn't say no for sure. We look at any opportunity. But -- generally speaking, they take longer, cost more and come out with a less attractive projects than people think they will. So we go and completely eyes wide open. I don't think it's going to be a huge part of our development pipeline. And I also think it's going to be hard in a lot of cases to have it be a meaningful contributor to supply. Even in New York, where they got a specific tax abatement program geared towards these conversions it's really hard to make the numbers work. And maybe there'll be a number of 2,000, 3,000 over time that gets developed and maybe that normalizes to that kind of to 2,000 units a year over time. If you like Manhattan, that's just not going to materially impact us. And most of the locations aren't competitive with us. They're either all the way downtown where we only have 1 asset or they're in parts of Midtown that just aren't competitive residential locations.

傑夫，我是亞歷克。我們在將辦公大樓改建為住宅大樓方面擁有豐富的經驗。同時也看到其他人是如何經歷這個過程的，這是一個艱難的過程。但我們肯定不會拒絕。我們關注任何機會。但是——一般來說，他們花費的時間更長，成本更高，而且專案也沒有人們想像的那麼有吸引力。所以我們去了，並且完全睜大了眼睛。我不認為它將成為我們開發流程的重要組成部分。而且我還認為，在很多情況下，讓它成為供應的有意義的貢獻者將會很困難。即使在紐約，他們有針對這些轉換的具體減稅計劃，但要讓數字發揮作用也非常困難。隨著時間的推移，也許會開發出 2,000 到 3,000 個單位，也許隨著時間的推移，每年 2,000 個單位的開發量就會正常化。如果你喜歡曼哈頓，那這就不會對我們產生實質的影響。而且大多數地點都無法與我們競爭。它們要麼位於我們只有一項資產的市中心，要麼位於中城區一些不太具競爭力的住宅區。

Great. Maybe if I could sneak in just one more. Can you provide a quick preview on what you plan to discuss at the Investor Day?

偉大的。也許如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次的話。您能否簡單介紹一下投資者日計畫討論的內容？

Jeff, it's Mark. Well, I don't want to run it. I think we'll run it. I think the focus is going to be on the strategy, both on the capital allocation and operations side. It also, frankly, gives us an opportunity to show off a broader array of folks that are on the team. We've got an exceptional team here at equity. So you'll have to wait and see, but we're really looking forward to talking to everyone in a few weeks.

傑夫，我是馬克。嗯，我不想運行它。我想我們會運行它。我認為重點將放在策略上，包括資本配置和營運方面。坦白說，這也讓我們有機會展現團隊中更廣大的人才。我們在股權方面擁有一支出色的團隊。所以你必須拭目以待，但我們真的很期待幾週後與大家交談。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Rich Hightower with Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

Good afternoon, guys. I want to go back -- I apologize. I want to go back to get a clarifying response. I think Steve asked the question about renewals and asking rents kind of for the springtime. I think you said asking [7%] should achieve [5%], but did that apply just to San Francisco, Seattle and L.A. Or was that for the whole portfolio?

大家下午好。我想回去——我很抱歉。我想回去獲得一個澄清的答案。我認為史蒂夫問的是有關續約和春季租金的問題。我記得你說過要求 [7%] 應該可以實現 [5%]，但這只適用於舊金山、西雅圖和洛杉磯嗎？

Rich, it's Michael. No, that's the whole portfolio.

里奇，我是麥可。不，那是整個投資組合。

That's the whole portfolio. Okay. Great. And then, I guess, my real question, I didn't want to waste one on that. But I think as you think about the progression of improvement in the Sunbelt, specifically in your expansion markets over the course of the year, curious if you want to take a wager on when new lease growth inflect positive in those markets generally at what point in the year, if it does?

這就是整個投資組合。好的。偉大的。然後，我想，我真正的問題是，我不想在這上面浪費時間。但我認為，當您考慮到陽光地帶的改善進程，特別是您全年的擴張市場時，您是否想打賭一下，這些市場的新租賃增長何時會產生積極影響，通常是在一年中的什麼時候？

All right. Well, I think that depends. It's Mark, as well on the lease that's being replaced. I guess I'm not willing to hazard that on any specific and every market is different. I mean we feel better about some parts of our portfolio in the 3 markets we're really in the 2 big Sunbelt markets of Atlanta and Dallas and Denver. So I don't really have an estimate. And by the way, it could go positive in the third quarter and go negative again and likely wood in the fourth. So I think the second derivative, I know is really important to the Street, but it's just going to be uneven. It's going to get a little better and then it's going to get worse. And if you have interruptions in job growth, it will be really problematic. So I don't think this team is willing to put real money on that bet. But I think we'll all feel a little better about all the Sunbelt markets, particularly ours in the second and third quarter.

好的。嗯，我認為這要視情況而定。馬克也參與了更換租約的工作。我想我不願意冒險在任何特定市場進行討論，因為每個市場都是不同的。我的意思是，我們對我們在三個市場的投資組合的某些部分感覺更好，我們實際上在亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛這兩個大型陽光地帶市場。所以我實際上沒有估計。順便說一句，第三季它可能轉為正值，第四季可能再次轉為負值，甚至可能轉為負值。所以我認為二階導數對華爾街來說非常重要，但它可能是不平衡的。情況會先變好一點，然後又會變得更糟。如果就業成長出現中斷，那就真的很麻煩了。所以我不認為這支球隊願意在那場賭注上投入真金白銀。但我認為，我們對於整個陽光地帶市場都會感覺好一些，特別是第二季和第三季的市場。

I think you're going to see good demand. You have a lot of supply, a lot of that supply happens to be front-end loaded, but that's okay because there's a lot of demand in the middle of the year. So I think there'll be some better sentiment. I just don't think it's going to translate into better cash flow growth for quite some time as we've talked on prior calls about how long it takes to redo the whole rent roll and take those numbers up, and that's why it's more of a '26. And even for some markets in like a '27 outcome in terms of having better same-store revenue growth.

我認為你會看到良好的需求。你有很多供應，其中很多供應恰好是前端加載的，但那沒關係，因為年中有很多需求。因此我認為情緒會有所改善。我只是認為，在相當長的一段時間內，這不會轉化為更好的現金流增長，正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的那樣，重新做整個租金清單並提高這些數字需要多長時間，這就是為什麼它更像是‘26’。甚至對於某些市場來說，在 27 年的業績中同店收入成長也表現較好。

Alright, very helpful thanks Mark.

好的，非常有幫助，謝謝馬克。

Alexander Goldfarm with Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大‧戈德法姆 (Alexander Goldfarm) 和派珀‧桑德勒 (Piper Sandler)。

I think you guys are still an hour behind. So 2 questions. First, Mark, just big picture. Obviously, change in the administration, their policy on business regulation versus the prior you had that late FTC fee income just days before the inauguration, there's the continuing federal on real page. From a federal level, do you guys have any sense update on any shift in how DOJ or FTC is looking at these? Is it still continuing on? Or is there a sense that they may be more constructive and amenable on these? Any update?

我認為你們仍然落後了一個小時。所以有 2 個問題。首先，馬克，只是總體情況。顯然，政府的變化，他們的商業監管政策與就職典禮前幾天聯邦貿易委員會收取的滯納金相比，聯邦政府仍在繼續徵收實際費用。從聯邦層級來看，你們對司法部或聯邦貿易委員會對這些議題的看法有什麼改變嗎？它還在繼續嗎？或者他們覺得在這些問題上他們可能更具建設性、更願意接受？有什麼更新嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Alex. I'll start by saying we're not in that gray star case. That's the FTC fee case that came out, like you said, a couple of weeks ago just before the change in administration. So don't really know anything about that case besides what's in the paper. I certainly think the focus that the administration has said about supply and maybe making federal land available. I'm not sure if that's desirable that land is to where people want to live, but -- those supply solutions Alex are much -- from our point of view, much more effective than some of the other regulatory efforts. But they just haven't done much, and they obviously have a lot of things going on. And I'm not sure we're top of their list.

是的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。首先我要說的是，我們並不是處於那個灰星案例中。正如您所說，這是幾週前，也就是政府換屆前曝光的聯邦貿易委員會收費案。所以除了報紙上的內容之外，我對這個案子一無所知。我當然認為政府所說的重點是供應以及可能提供聯邦土地。我不確定將土地分配給人們想要居住的地方是否可取，但是，從我們的角度來看，這些供應解決方案比其他一些監管措施有效得多。但他們並沒有做太多的事情，而且顯然他們還有很多事情要做。但我不確定我們是否在他們的名單上名列前茅。

I will put one thing on your radar to consider there has been some conversation at the federal level about returning the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to more private ownership. From their current mostly federal control. I don't know how that would happen exactly. There's a lot of complexity to that. But I think there is some push. I think that's worth watching at the federal level. To be honest, I think most of the regulatory issues and the opportunities we have are at the local level. And at the state level. But the Feds and their control of the real estate finance world through the GSEs is a pretty material thing. And we got to all keep track of that and see how that unfolds.

我要提請您注意一件事，即聯邦政府層面已經就將政府支持企業（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）歸還給私人所有進行了一些討論。從目前他們主要受到聯邦政府的控制來看。我不知道那究竟是怎麼發生的。這其中有很多複雜性。但我認為還是有一定的推動力。我認為這值得聯邦層級關注。說實話，我認為大多數監管問題和機會都在地方層級。在州一級也是如此。但聯邦政府及其透過政府支持企業對房地產金融世界的控制是非常物質的事情。我們必須持續追蹤此事並觀察其進展。

And then, Mark, that's a perfect segue to my second question. You guys were just at NMHC. And as the market -- the transaction market continues to fall, are you seeing any pricing differences setting out Sunbelt versus coastal meeting as people understand the regulatory changes and some of these recent local regulatory litigation efforts. Is there pricing differences that you're now seeing markets trading 50 bps wide or 70 bps wide or anything that's discernible that prices in some of these different risks that you guys have been articulating and others in the industry as well? Or is pricing pretty tight regardless and it's not really factoring in some of the issues that are out there.

然後，馬克，這與我的第二個問題完美銜接。你們剛去過 NMHC。而且隨著市場——交易市場持續下跌，隨著人們了解監管變化和最近的一些當地監管訴訟努力，您是否看到陽光地帶與沿海地區之間的定價存在差異。您現在看到的市場交易價格差異是否為 50 個基點或 70 個基點，或者是否存在任何可辨識的定價差異，這些差異反映了您和業內其他人所闡述的一些不同風險？或者無論怎樣定價都非常嚴格而且並沒有真正考慮到存在的一些問題。

Alex, it's Alec. There's such broad interest in multifamily housing that different investors are different interested in different parts of the country for different reasons. And you certainly see even in a place like Austin, it's got all the supply, there's still people who are interested in paying what I think are very, very aggressive cap rates. That will be great. But you also see it in the coastal markets, a return to interest in places like San Francisco, which in the last couple of years, we just hadn't heard many people that wanted to buy there and now we hear a lot. So the whole market is benefiting from multifamily being a favorite asset class.

亞歷克斯，我是亞歷克。人們對多戶住宅的興趣如此廣泛，以至於不同的投資者出於不同的原因對不同地區的興趣也不同。當然你會看到，即使在奧斯汀這樣的地方，儘管供應充足，仍然有人願意支付我認為非常非常激進的資本化利率。那太棒了。但你也可以在沿海市場看到這種情況，人們對舊金山等地重新產生了興趣，過去幾年，我們聽到的想在那裡買房的人並不多，但現在我們聽到了很多。因此，多戶型住宅成為受青睞的資產類別，整個市場都因此受益。

Yes. I'd say it's more like just what markets are open for business, Alex. And as Alec said a moment ago, we think San Francisco by that we're specifically talking about downtown and the more urbanized area of the Peninsula, we think is open business and there'll be transactions there. We think there'll be larger scale transactions in downtown Central Seattle.

是的。我認為這更像是哪些市場正在營業，亞歷克斯。正如亞歷克剛才所說，我們認為舊金山市中心以及半島更城市化的地區是開放的商業區，那裡會有交易。我們認為西雅圖市中心將會有更大規模的交易。

I would call out Los Angeles is still a market that probably doesn't have that especially central downtown Los Angeles that developed a level of interest institutionally. But again, we're hopeful some of this regulatory stuff. So as the Mayor in San Francisco energetic guy is out there doing this thing and Seattle does some constructive stuff. We vetted those markets will continue to improve. And will support better cap rates and more investor interest over time.

我想說的是，洛杉磯仍然是一個市場，可能還沒有像洛杉磯市中心那樣在機構上引起人們一定程度的興趣。但同樣，我們對一些監管措施充滿希望。因此，身為舊金山市的市長，他精力充沛地做著這件事，而西雅圖也做了一些建設性的事情。我們審查了這些市場，它們將會繼續改善。並且隨著時間的推移將支持更好的資本化率和更多的投資者興趣。

They have probably more growth in them. So my guess is they should, at some point, have lower cap rates, and our model for that is New York. I mean just New York was kind of given up for dead, then it came all the way back. And I think we have record low cap rates in New York relative to anywhere else if we were willing to sell any of our good Manhattan assets there. So we got to see that play through the year, but that's our general sense.

他們可能還會有更大的成長。因此我的猜測是，他們應該在某個時候降低資本化率，而我們的模型是紐約。我的意思是，紐約一度被認為已經完蛋了，但後來它又回來了。而且我認為，如果我們願意在紐約出售任何優質的曼哈頓資產，那麼紐約的資本化率相對於其他地方來說都是歷史最低的。所以我們必須在今年內看到這一幕，但這是我們的普遍感覺。

Thank you, Mark. Thanks, Alex.

謝謝你，馬克。謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當克萊默。

I'll keep it quick here with just one. I just wanted to ask about the comments, I think, pretty early in the call around office using job growth. I think you're expecting to be higher in '25. I know you kind of mentioned the West Coast being a driver there. But just wondering if you could add any more detail. I think that may have come in a little bit of a surprise, maybe at least to me. So maybe just kind of what's what's driving that expectation from an office using job growth perspective? And I guess in the other markets like New York, Boston, D.C., what are the expectations there?

我就在這裡簡短地說一個吧。我只是想問一下關於辦公室使用就業增長的電話會議中很早就出現的評論。我認為你期望 25 年的數字會更高。我知道您曾經提到西海岸是那裡的推動力。但我只是想知道您是否可以添加更多細節。我認為這可能有點令人驚訝，至少對我來說是這樣。那麼，也許從就業成長的角度來看，是什麼推動了這種預期呢？我想，其他市場，像是紐約、波士頓、華盛頓特區，那裡的預期是什麼？

Yes. So it's Mark. I'm going to start and maybe my colleagues will jump in here. So we generally use Moody's Analytics, we look at it. And again, we also, again, look at our dashboards and see where our people feel. And there was some terrific tech hiring maybe over hiring during the pandemic. And then you saw that kind of turn negative because a lot of those employment clusters of higher wage jobs are related to the information services sector or professional and business services. But when we talk to the economists, we tell our people on the grid, it feels better to us. It feels like there will be good job growth.

是的。所以是馬克。我現在要開始了，也許我的同事們也會加入。因此我們通常使用穆迪分析來觀察它。再次，我們也會再次查看我們的儀表板，以了解我們的員工的感受。在疫情期間，一些優秀的技術人才可能被過度招募。然後你就看到這種情況開始惡化，因為許多高薪工作的就業群體都與資訊服務業或專業和商業服務有關。但當我們與經濟學家交談時，我們告訴電網上的人們，我們感覺好多了。感覺就業成長將會良好。

And we just look at the job boards in those markets. So that's what we're basing that assumption on in San Francisco and Seattle and elsewhere on the job side. I will point out in the December government numbers you saw an improvement in professional and business services, you hadn't seen in a while. You saw information sector to a positive when it had been negative for a while. So you started to see in the numbers nationally some improvement in those office using jobs. In late in 2024, and we hope that kind of powers through 2025. And certainly San Francisco and Seattle, I think, would be beneficiaries of that from what we're thinking.

我們只是查看這些市場的招募資訊。這就是我們在舊金山、西雅圖和其他就業地區做出這個假設的依據。我要指出的是，在 12 月的政府數據中，您會看到專業和商業服務有所改善，這是您很久沒有看到的了。您看到資訊產業一段時間以來一直處於消極狀態，而現在卻轉為積極狀態。因此，您開始從全國數字上看到辦公室類工作有所改善。預計在 2024 年末，我們希望這種力量能持續到 2025 年。從我們的想法來看，我認為舊金山和西雅圖肯定會從中受益。

Alex Kemp with Zelman and Associates.

澤爾曼公司 (Zelman and Associates) 的亞歷克斯坎普 (Alex Kemp)。

I hope that the team had a productive trip up to NMHC last week and great to see and hear the optimism surrounding the multifamily industry. There was some commentary at the conference about recently built assets, especially as sold by now based on traditional merchant build time lines since that could be unlocked in 2025. I was wondering if there could be any upside to your target $1.5 billion in acquisition volume this year?

我希望團隊上週前往 NMHC 的旅程富有成果，並且很高興看到和聽到圍繞多戶型住宅行業的樂觀情緒。會議上對最近建造的資產進行了一些評論，特別是根據傳統商人建造時間表目前已出售的資產，因為這些資產可能會在 2025 年解鎖。我想知道，今年您的收購額是否還能達到 15 億美元的目標？

Alex, it's Alec. Yes, we certainly want to be optimistic and hope so. And I think we're really, really well positioned to move quickly. As we showed last year, the year started out slowly, but we did $1.5 billion in the third quarter alone. So we have machine here that can ramp up very quickly. And we've showed that we will do what we say we're going to do and perform in a way that many others, frankly, can't because they don't have the same access to capital. that we do. So we're excited to see those opportunities, and I did allude to that earlier. I think it is true what you heard that these recently built assets were not financed for the long run, and we're excited to see them come to the market.

亞歷克斯，我是亞歷克。是的，我們當然希望保持樂觀。我認為我們確實已經做好準備，可以迅速採取行動。正如我們去年所展示的那樣，今年的開局緩慢，但僅第三季我們的銷售額就達到了 15 億美元。所以我們這裡有可以快速提升的機器。我們已經證明，我們會履行承諾，並以許多其他人無法做到的方式行事，坦白說，因為他們無法獲得相同的資金。我們確實這麼做了。因此，我們很高興看到這些機會，我之前也提到過這一點。我認為您所聽到的這些新建的資產並未獲得長期融資的說法是真的，我們很高興看到它們進入市場。

Great. And I know the call is going on, and I appreciate you all stick around. The strategy so far has been rating into newer vintage properties in your expansion markets, are there any additional markets that you're looking into at the moment?

偉大的。我知道通話還在進行中，感謝大家的關注。到目前為止，我們的策略是對擴張市場中較新的復古房產進行評級，目前您是否正在研究其他市場？

Our focus is really on the 3, Atlanta, Dallas and Denver. There are other markets we'd consider that we've mentioned on occasion and we've talked to our Board about that share those same kind of attributes. But right now, the primary focus of those 3 markets. Austin is on the list, we have 3 properties there. It's just the supply picture was really tough. And there may be a year or so of delay before we kind of reengage in that market. But no, there isn't another market for us to announce on this call.

我們的重點其實是亞特蘭大、達拉斯和丹佛這三支球隊。我們曾考慮過其他市場，這些市場也具有相同的屬性，我們也曾與董事會討論過這些市場。但目前，主要關注的是這三個市場。奧斯汀在名單上，我們在那裡有三處房產。只是供應情勢確實嚴峻。我們可能還需要一年左右的時間才能重新進入該市場。但是，在這次電話會議上，我們沒有其他市場可以宣布。

Got it. Thanks for your time.

知道了。感謝您的時間。

Linda Ty with Jeffrey.

Linda Ty 和 Jeffrey。

Just a quick one. In terms of your favorable view towards Seattle and D.C., the 4% revenue expectation, how does the embedded growth for these 2 markets compare to the 80 bps for your overall portfolio?

只需快速操作即可。就您對西雅圖和華盛頓特區的樂觀看法而言，即 4% 的收入預期，這兩個市場的內含成長與您整體投資組合的 80 個基點相比如何？

Linda, it's Bob. I'll start and maybe Michael can add. Directionally, the embedded in D.C. is actually really strong. So you had a really strong leasing performance, and you can see that from funded rate. So it's probably a little bit higher than the 80 basis points. Seattle is probably more like the average or slightly below the average because we had kind of that recovery experience in 2024. Rule of thumb I always think about is kind of taking your blends.

琳達，我是鮑伯。我先開始，也許麥可可以補充。從方向上看，華盛頓特區的嵌入實際上非常強大。因此，您的租賃業績非常強勁，您可以從融資利率中看到這一點。所以它可能比 80 個基點略高一點。西雅圖可能更接近平均或略低於平均水平，因為我們在 2024 年有過這樣的復甦經歷。我始終認為的經驗法則是採取混合方式。

This math doesn't perfectly work but taking your blends from the prior year, dividing them by 2, and that's kind of roughly your embedded. So that can give you a directional sense. But I'd say, directionally, starting with a really solid embedded, that's the driver of growth in D.C. The Seattle story is more starting with an okay embedded, but it's really more of the leasing activity in the current year and the occupancy gain that's going to drive the revenue growth. .

這種計算方法並不完美，但將你前一年得到的混合物除以 2，這大致等於你的嵌入值。這樣可以給你一個方向感。但我想說，從方向上看，從一個真正穩固的嵌入開始，這是華盛頓特區增長的驅動力。。

Could you expand that to New York and San Fran too?

你能將其擴展到紐約和舊金山嗎？

New York probably looks more similar to D.C., where you had the really strong leasing season and San Francisco probably looks more similar to Seattle. They probably align -- they happen to be on the same cost, but they also fundamentally probably more aligned with what I talked about relatively.

紐約可能看起來更類似於華盛頓特區，那裡的租賃季節非常強勁，而舊金山可能看起來更類似於西雅圖。它們可能一致——它們的成本恰好相同，但從根本上來說，它們可能與我所談論的更加一致。

Tayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank

德意志銀行的 Tayo Okusanya

Yes. Just a quick one for me. In regards to the 2025 transaction assumption on the transaction dilution of negative 25 basis points Wondering if you could talk a little bit to that, just around the comfort of doing dilutive deals, at least in the first year? And how we should kind of think about the deals ultimately breaking even and actually adding shareholder value over time?

是的。對我來說這只是一個快速步驟。關於 2025 年交易假設中交易稀釋為負 25 個基點，您是否可以就此稍微談一談，至少在第一年進行稀釋交易的舒適度？我們應該如何看待這些交易最終實現收支平衡以及隨著時間的推移真正增加股東價值？

I'm going to add a comment on Alec, may add. So one of the things to think about here is we're trying to give you numbers for the model. And NFFO is obviously before CapEx. A lot of these deals that we're selling are -- as Alec has commented many times considerably older and have a lot more CapEx, especially in the near term, that we don't believe in, we'll get the return we need.

我將對 Alec 添加一條評論，可能會添加。所以這裡要考慮的事情之一是我們試圖為您提供模型的數字。而NFFO顯然先於CapEx。正如亞歷克多次評論的那樣，我們出售的許多交易都是相當老舊的，並且有大量資本支出，特別是在短期內，我們不相信我們會獲得所需的回報。

So on an AFFO basis or on any sort of adjusted IRR basis, you're doing better by selling these assets. That's how we pick them. In terms of where those lines cross, it could be a year or 2, but I would say on a cash flow basis, you may be advantaged immediately by selling an asset that really needs a renovation or a lot of common area work that we frankly don't believe in.

因此，根據 AFFO 基礎或任何調整後的 IRR 基礎，出售這些資產會對您更有利。我們就是這樣挑選它們的。至於這些界限何時交叉，可能是一兩年後，但我想說，從現金流的角度來看，通過出售真正需要裝修或大量公共區域工作的資產（我們坦率地說不相信），你可能會立即獲得優勢。

Yes. Just to give you an example, last year, the average property that we bought was 5 years old and what we sold was 35 years old.

是的。舉個例子，去年我們購買的房產平均有 5 年房齡，而出售的房產平均有 35 年房齡。

Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

It's Daniel Tricarico, apologies if I missed this. I know we've already talked about L.A., but curious if you could share the same-store revenue growth expectation for your L.A. portfolio this year would be useful for us to know what's in there given the moving pieces?

我是 Daniel Tricarico，如果我錯過了，請見諒。我知道我們已經談過洛杉磯了，但我很好奇，如果您可以分享一下今年洛杉磯投資組合的同店收入成長預期，這對我們了解其中的情況是否有幫助？

Daniel, it's Michael. Yes, I had that, I think in the prepared remarks that we expect L.A. right now in our base case to deliver right around a 3% revenue growth. And that's based on some momentum and trajectory we saw in the fourth quarter and continuing some marginal improvement to play out through 2025, but nothing kind of like an outsized recovery in that market. .

丹尼爾，我是麥可。是的，我已經說過了，我認為在準備好的評論中我們預計洛杉磯現在的基本收入成長率將達到 3% 左右。這是基於我們在第四季度看到的一些勢頭和軌跡，並且會持續出現一些邊際改善直到 2025 年，但不像該市場出現超大規模的復甦。。

Great thanks that's all for me.

非常感謝，對我來說就這些了。

Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

韋德布希公司的里奇‧安德森 (Rich Anderson)。

About 4 hours ago, Mark, you said your targets for expansion -- your target for expansion markets is 20%. I remember the number, 25%. I just want to -- I don't know if you're just short handing it there or are you walking back your ultimate landing point for expansion markets?

大約 4 小時前，馬克，您說了您的擴張目標——擴張市場的目標是 20%。我記得這個數字，25%。我只是想——我不知道您是否只是在那裡簡短地介紹一下，或者您正在回顧擴展市場的最終著陸點？

Rich, thanks for sticking in there for the call. Yes. No, it's 20% to 25%. That's what we talk to our Board about by was just short handing it I think as you get to 20%, you may see us be maybe a bit less purposeful in hitting those numbers in a bit more open to doing buys in other places, like, for example, our coastal existing markets. So 20% isn't magic, 25% isn't either, but we'd expect to land in that range. So there is no change in approach, but we could end up either place.

里奇，感謝您堅持接聽電話。是的。不，是 20% 到 25%。這就是我們與董事會討論的內容，只是簡略地說，我認為，當達到 20% 時，您可能會看到我們在實現這些數字時可能不那麼有目的性，而更願意在其他地方進行購買，例如，我們現有的沿海市場。因此 20% 並不是魔法，25% 也不是，但我們希望達到這個範圍。因此，方法沒有改變，但我們最終可能會處於任何一個位置。

Fair enough. And so to my next quick question and like in August, you did a $1 billion deal with Blackstone added 2 percentage points to your exposure. This year is $2.5 billion, meaning you do every acquisition is an expansion market and every dispositions in coastal, do you get 500 basis points upside? And do you think that by this time next year, we'll be saying, well, you're at around 15%. Is that the cadence you guys are thinking about for the expansion markets? We all just want to get this kind of behind us and -- but also not rush it, of course. I'm just curious if you can sort of provide some timing ideas around finishing the job.

很公平。所以對於我的下一個快速問題，就像在八月份，您與黑石集團達成了一筆 10 億美元的交易，這使您的風險敞口增加了 2 個百分點。今年是 25 億美元，這意味著你所做的每一次收購都是為了擴張市場，而每一次在沿海地區的處置，你是否獲得了 500 個基點的上漲空間？您是否認為到明年這個時候，我們會說，嗯，您的比例已經達到了 15% 左右？這是你們考慮擴張市場的節奏嗎？我們都只是想把這種事情拋在腦後——但當然也不要急。我只是好奇您是否可以提供一些有關完成這項工作的時間表的想法。

Yes. I think you definitely restated exactly how management feels. We like to get this done as quickly as possible, provided there's good value to the shareholders, and it's not dilutive. So I'd tell you that your numbers are about right. About every $350 million to $400 million is a 1 percentage point you move it all out of one and into the other thing you got to think about is the denominator. So if we do grow the company and by debt issuance, which is what we put in there, I guess, we could issue equity, but that's not being contemplated now given the share price. Then you're in a position where you're going to accelerate that move a little bit. But I think your give or take 15% if you do everything the way you said, and that's what we hope. So to be done in a couple of years would be fabulous.

是的。我認為你肯定重申了管理階層的感受。我們希望盡快完成此事，前提是這對股東有良好的價值，並且不會稀釋股東權益。所以我會告訴你，你的數字大致正確。大約每 3.5 億美元到 4 億美元就是 1 個百分點，您將它從一個數額全部移到另一個數額中，您需要考慮的是分母。因此，如果我們確實發展了公司，並且透過發行債務（這也是我們所投入的），我想，我們可以發行股票，但考慮到股價，現在還沒有考慮這樣做。然後你就可以稍微加速這動作了。但我認為，如果您按照您所說的去做，您的收益會有 15% 的上下浮動，這正是我們所希望的。所以如果能在幾年內完成那就太好了。

Awesome. Okay, thanks very much.

驚人的。好的，非常感謝。

And that concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給我們的演講者，讓他們發表任何補充或結束語。

Yes. Thanks, everyone, for sticking around for the call, for this long call. I just want to put a quick plug in for our upcoming Investor Day that Jeff Spector alluded to a minute ago. We're going to host that on Tuesday, February 25. We look forward to spending some time at all of you discussing top-level strategy and a longer-term outlook for the business. It will be quite interesting and exciting. So we look forward to that. Thanks to everyone for joining us today.

是的。謝謝大家堅持聽我通話，堅持這麼久。我只是想快速地介紹一下 Jeff Spector 剛才提到的我們即將到來的投資者日。我們將於 2 月 25 日星期二舉辦此活動。我們期待與大家一起花一些時間討論高層策略和業務的長期前景。這將會非常有趣和令人興奮。所以我們對此充滿期待。感謝大家今天的參加。

And once again that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議又結束了。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。