住宅地產 (EQR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Equity Residential third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Equity Residential 2025 年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播。今天的會議正在錄影。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Marty McKenna. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我謹將會議交給馬蒂·麥肯納先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential's third-quarter 2025 results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO; Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bret McLeod, our CFO; Bob Garechana, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us as well for the Q&A.

早安，感謝各位參加本次會議，共同探討 Equity Residential 2025 年第三季業績。今天我們的特邀演講嘉賓有：總裁兼執行長 Mark Parrell；營運長 Michael Manelis；財務長 Bret McLeod；投資長 Bob Garechana 也來到現場，參與問答環節。

Our earnings release is posted in the Investors section of equityapartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events.

我們的獲利報告已發佈在 equityapartments.com 網站的投資者關係板塊。請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些事項可能構成聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到某些經濟風險和不確定性的影響。本公司不承擔因後續事件而導致這些聲明不實的義務進行更新或補充。

Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell.

現在我將把電話交給馬克·帕雷爾。

Thank you, Marty. Good morning, and thanks for joining us today. I will lead us off with some broader commentary, then Michael Manelis will provide color on our third quarter revenue performance as well as what are you seeing in the markets today. Followed by Bret McLeod, our new Chief Financial Officer, who will address expenses and our NFFO guidance, and then we'll go ahead and take your questions.

謝謝你，馬蒂。早安，感謝您今天收看我們的節目。我先從一些更廣泛的評論開始，然後邁克爾·馬內利斯將詳細介紹我們第三季度的收入表現以及您今天在市場上看到的情況。接下來，我們的新任財務長 Bret McLeod 將介紹費用和我們的 NFFO 指導意見，然後我們將回答大家的問題。

Our third quarter results reflect the resilience of our business despite what is generally a mixed macroeconomic picture, we continue to see good demand and excellent resident retention across most of our markets with results strongest in San Francisco and New York, where continuing high demand has met modest supply.

儘管宏觀經濟形勢喜憂參半，但我們第三季的業績反映了我們業務的韌性。在大多數市場，我們繼續看到良好的需求和優秀的居民留存率，其中舊金山和紐約的業績最為強勁，這兩個城市持續高需求與適度供應相匹配。

We see our existing residents as having a generally stable employment situation and good wage growth. When last reported, the unemployment rate for the college educated, our key renter demographic was 2.7%, considerably below the national average. This is consistent with the experience at our properties as we see continued improvements in delinquency and no other signs of customer financial stress. We have also seen incomes rise for our new residents by 6.2% year-over-year, a healthy rate of growth.

我們認為現有居民的就業狀況大致穩定，薪資成長良好。根據最新報告顯示，受過大學教育的租屋者（我們的主要租屋者）的失業率為 2.7%，遠低於全國平均。這與我們旗下物業的經驗一致，我們看到拖欠情況持續改善，並且沒有其他跡象表明客戶有財務壓力。我們還看到，新居民的收入年增了 6.2%，這是一個健康的成長率。

Finally, we continue to see residents react to the uncertainty in the economy and the quality of our properties and people by renewing with us at record rates. In fact, we reported the highest third quarter resident retention in our company's history, allowing us to maintain high occupancy rates in the mid-96% range.

最後，我們看到居民們對經濟的不確定性以及我們房產和人員的優質服務做出了積極回應，續租率創下歷史新高。事實上，我們公司第三季的住戶留存率創下了歷史新高，使我們能夠保持 96% 以上的高入住率。

In sum, our existing customer is financially healthy and happy to stay with us. On the new customer acquisition side, we began to see weakness in traffic during the back half of September. This was most pronounced in Washington, D.C., but did manifest itself in other markets as well. The best way to think about this is for us to say that our normal pattern of a seasonal decline in traffic began one month earlier than usual.

總之，我們現有的客戶財務狀況良好，並且樂意繼續與我們合作。在新客戶獲取方面，我們從9月下半月開始看到流量疲軟的跡象。這種情況在華盛頓特區最為明顯，但在其他市場也有體現。理解這個問題的最佳方式是，我們可以說，我們正常的季節性交通量下降模式比平常提早了一個月開始。

In fact, everything this year feels like it was pulled forward. The leasing season started earlier than usual and peaked earlier than usual just as the normal seasonal pattern of traffic decline began earlier than usual. This acceleration of seasonal patterns, weakness in Washington, D.C. and some minor delays in the rollout of another income initiative that Bret will discuss in a moment, led us to adjust down the midpoint of our annual same-store revenue guidance by 15 basis points to 2.75%.

事實上，今年的一切似乎都提早了。租賃旺季開始得比往年早，高峰期也比往年早，正如正常的季節性交通量下降趨勢也比往年早開始一樣。季節性模式的加速、華盛頓特區的疲軟以及布雷特稍後將要討論的另一項收入計劃推出過程中出現的一些小延誤，導致我們將年度同店收入預期中位數下調 15 個基點至 2.75%。

In terms of market commentary, Michael will speak in a moment on specifics in D.C. and elsewhere. But I did want to make a general comment on San Francisco, where we have 15% of our net operating income. After a prolonged recovery, we are excited by what we are seeing in San Francisco, particularly the urban core, where we have more exposure than our competitors.

關於市場評論，麥可稍後將具體談談華盛頓特區和其他地方的情況。但我確實想就舊金山發表一些看法，我們15%的營業淨收入都來自那裡。經過漫長的復甦，我們對在舊金山，尤其是在市中心地區（我們比競爭對手擁有更大的市場份額）所看到的情況感到興奮。

As we talked about at our Investor Day earlier this year, we thought San Francisco had the opportunity to be a strong performer in 2025, and that is exactly what is happening in this the epicenter of the AI technology revolution. As a result, we expect San Francisco to be our best-performing market this year.

正如我們在今年稍早的投資者日上所討論的那樣，我們認為舊金山有機會在 2025 年成為表現強勁的城市，而這正是人工智慧技術革命中心正在發生的事情。因此，我們預計舊金山將成為我們今年表現最好的市場。

At our Investor Day, we also spoke positively about the Seattle recovery story. We do see improvement there, but due to higher supply levels in Seattle than San Francisco, this improvement is occurring at a slower pace. Conversely, but as we generally expected, we are seeing very different conditions in our higher supplied markets, specifically Denver, Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and Atlanta, where we have about 11% of our NOI.

在我們的投資者日上，我們也對西雅圖的復甦情況給予了正面評價。我們確實看到情況有所改善，但由於西雅圖的供應水平高於舊金山，因此這種改善的速度較慢。相反，正如我們通常預期的那樣，我們在供應量較高的市場，特別是丹佛、達拉斯、沃斯堡、奧斯汀和亞特蘭大，看到了截然不同的情況，這些市場約占我們淨營業收入的 11%。

In these markets, where the slowing job picture is meeting continued high levels of supply, we see a significant lack of pricing power. And to be clear, the supply pressure includes both recent new apartment deliveries, which are pretty well tracked by all the data providers and the continuing pressure from slow lease-ups of already completed properties as well as the first round of lease renewals at properties that were delivered a year ago, where landlords are struggling to remove lease-up concessions when going through the renewal process and places with many choices for consumers.

在這些市場中，就業情況放緩，而供應量卻持續高企，我們看到定價權嚴重不足。需要明確的是，供應壓力既包括近期新公寓的交付（所有數據提供商都對此進行了相當準確的跟踪），也包括已竣工房產租賃速度緩慢帶來的持續壓力，以及一年前交付的房產的第一輪續租壓力（房東在續租過程中難以取消租賃優惠），以及消費者有很多選擇的地方。

This not yet fully stabilized supply is less well tracked by data providers and is not as well understood by investors but is certainly impactful. Over time, all of this supply will clear the market and we remain comfortable with the cost basis at which we acquired the assets we own in these markets. We also are positive on longer-term return prospects in these markets, complementing our portfolio diversification goals. But as we've said on prior earnings calls, we do expect to see an elongated recovery in these markets.

這種尚未完全穩定的供應情況不太受數據提供者的關注，投資者也不太了解，但它無疑會產生影響。隨著時間的推移，所有這些供應都將消化掉，我們對在這些市場中收購資產的成本基礎仍然感到滿意。我們也看好這些市場的長期報酬前景，這與我們的投資組合多元化目標相輔相成。但正如我們在先前的財報電話會議上所說，我們預計這些市場的復甦過程將會比較漫長。

Switching over to capital allocation. As you saw in the release, we have been active in buying our shares with the company repurchasing approximately $100 million of its stock during the third quarter and subsequent to quarter end. We see our company with its high-quality asset base and sophisticated operating platform and forward growth prospects as greatly undervalued versus asset prices in the private market.

轉而討論資本配置。正如您在新聞稿中看到的，我們一直在積極回購公司股票，該公司在第三季及季末之後回購了約 1 億美元的股票。我們認為，憑藉我們公司的高品質資產基礎、成熟的營運平台和未來的成長前景，與私募市場的資產價格相比，我們的公司被嚴重低估了。

Also, we closed on one acquisition in the quarter, a 375-unit property in Arlington, Texas, that has been in process for some time. This property was just completed in 2023 and is a nice complement to our Dallas area portfolio. We sold two deals in the quarter, one in suburban Boston and one in suburban D.C. These were older assets averaging nearly 30 years in age. These transactions all traded right around a 5% cap rate.

此外，本季度我們還完成了一項收購，位於德克薩斯州阿靈頓的一處擁有 375 個單元的物業，該收購已經進行了一段時間。該物業於 2023 年竣工，是我們達拉斯地區投資組合的一個很好的補充。本季我們完成了兩筆交易，一筆在波士頓郊區，一筆在華盛頓特區郊區。這些都是比較老舊的資產，平均房齡接近 30 年。這些交易的資本化率都在 5% 左右。

As you also saw in our release, we have lowered our acquisitions and dispositions guidance for the full year to $750 million of each from $1 billion of each, with the vast majority of these transactions already completed.

正如您在我們發布的公告中看到的那樣，我們將全年收購和處置的預期金額從10億美元下調至7.5億美元，其中絕大多數交易已經完成。

As I just discussed, with private market assets often trading at sub-5% cap rates and at or above replacement cost, our stock presents a compelling value at current levels, making us selective and limited in our acquisition activity for the time being. Dispositions of properties to fund the buyback will occur over the next several quarters, and we'll focus on properties with lower forward growth potential or where we are overconcentrated.

正如我剛才所討論的，由於私募市場資產的資本化率通常低於 5%，且交易成本等於或高於重置成本，因此我們的股票在目前的水平上具有很強的價值，這使得我們在目前的收購活動中更加謹慎和有限。為回購股份籌集資金的資產處置將在未來幾季進行，我們將重點放在未來成長潛力較低或我們持股過於集中的資產。

Before I turn the call over to Michael, I want to reiterate how excited we are about the forward prospects for our business. Our internal tracking shows deliveries of competitive new supply in our markets, declining 35% or by about 40,000 units in 2026 versus 2025 levels. The results we are seeing in San Francisco and New York demonstrate the earnings growth power of our business, when we are operating in markets with sustained demand and low levels of competitive new housing supply.

在將電話交給邁克爾之前，我想再次強調我們對公司未來的發展前景感到多麼興奮。我們的內部追蹤顯示，2026 年我們市場上具有競爭力的新供應量將比 2025 年下降 35%，即減少約 40,000 台。我們在舊金山和紐約看到的業績表明，當我們在需求持續旺盛、競爭性新房供應量低的市場中運營時，我們的業務具有強大的盈利增長能力。

We believe more markets we operate in will trend in that direction in 2026, assuming the job situation is reasonably constructive. For example, our internal tracking shows 2026 new apartment supply in the Washington, D.C. market that is competitive with our properties will be declining by over 8,000 units or down 65% to below 5,000 units, a level we have not seen since at least the great financial crisis.

我們相信，假設就業情況相當樂觀，那麼到 2026 年，我們所經營的更多市場將朝著這個方向發展。例如，我們的內部追蹤顯示，2026 年華盛頓特區市場上與我們的房產具有競爭力的公寓供應量將減少 8000 多套，降幅達 65%，至 5000 套以下，這是我們自上次金融危機以來從未見過的水平。

With portfolio-wide occupancy of more than 96%, and occupancy nearly 97% in some of our key markets, we think this sets us up well for another year of solid performance in 2026. And if job growth reignites, we could see some very good results.

我們整體投資組合的入住率超過 96%，在一些主要市場的入住率接近 97%，我們認為這為我們在 2026 年取得又一個穩健的業績奠定了良好的基礎。如果就業成長再次加速，我們可能會看到非常好的結果。

In sum, we continue to see the current and future drivers of our business is healthy and the forward momentum is solid.

總之，我們認為公司目前和未來的發展動力依然強勁，前進勢頭穩固。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis.

接下來，我將把電話交給麥可·馬內利斯。

Thanks, Mark, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Our third quarter results reflect solid demand with outside performance in San Francisco and New York. Currently, general macroeconomic uncertainty remains as a result of tariffs, lower job growth and more recently, the government shutdown. These factors make forecasting demand a little bit more challenging today than it was 90 days ago, but what has not changed is the excellent setup we have going into next year due to the dramatic reductions to competitive new supply.

謝謝馬克，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨現場。第三季業績反映了強勁的需求，舊金山和紐約的外部市場表現特別出色。目前，由於關稅、就業成長放緩以及最近的政府停擺，宏觀經濟普遍存在不確定性。這些因素使得如今預測需求比 90 天前更具挑戰性，但不變的是，由於競爭性新供應的大幅減少，我們明年的情況仍然十分有利。

Breaking down our third quarter operating results. Our renewal rate achieved for the quarter remained strong and was up 4.5% with nearly 59% of our leases renewing, and both of these were in line with what we thought would happen through the quarter. Our centralized renewal process and intense focus on customer satisfaction has helped deliver the lowest reported third quarter turnover in our history.

分析我們第三季的經營業績。本季我們的續租率保持強勁，成長了 4.5%，近 59% 的租約獲得續租，這兩個數字都與我們對本季預期結果相符。我們集中化的續約流程和對客戶滿意度的高度重視，幫助我們實現了公司歷史上最低的第三季客戶流失率。

Across our portfolio, the average length of stay has increased by nearly 20% from 2019 and retention is at record levels. As secular trends and our focus on enhanced customer experiences have driven increased retention, the positive impact on same-store revenue growth from renewals has become more significant.

在我們所有飯店中，平均入住時間比 2019 年增加了近 20%，住客留存率也達到了創紀錄的水平。隨著長期趨勢和我們對提升客戶體驗的重視推動了客戶留存率的提高，續約對同店收入成長的正面影響變得更加顯著。

Our unique value proposition and customized renewal experience reduces costs associated with vacancy and new customer acquisition like marketing and concessions while enhancing customer satisfaction and removing the friction costs on our residents who choose to remain with us.

我們獨特的價值主張和客製化的續租體驗降低了與空置和新客戶獲取相關的成本，例如行銷和優惠，同時提高了客戶滿意度，並消除了選擇繼續與我們住在一起的居民的摩擦成本。

This strategy optimizes overall revenue and improved customer satisfaction despite potential short-term variability in new lease change which is an output that is greatly impacted by who moved in or out. With that said, new lease rates at negative 1% came in lower than we expected and resulted in a 2.2% blended rate increase for the quarter which was at the low end of our range.

儘管新租約變更可能會帶來短期波動（這種變動很大程度上取決於誰搬入或搬出），但該策略仍能優化整體收入並提高客戶滿意度。儘管如此，新租賃利率為負 1%，低於我們的預期，導致本季綜合利率上漲 2.2%，處於我們預期範圍的下限。

As Mark described, pricing trends peaked in July this year at a level that was both lower and earlier than normal. Prices stayed relatively flat through August, started the seasonal descent in September, which is typical but we did observe some late quarter pricing softness, mostly in Washington, D.C., which I will describe in a minute, which impacted our new lease change.

正如馬克所描述的那樣，今年的價格趨勢在7月份達到頂峰，但其水平既低於正常水平，也比正常水平出現得更早。8 月價格相對平穩，9 月開始季節性下降，這很正常，但我們確實觀察到一些季度末價格疲軟的情況，主要集中在華盛頓特區，我稍後會詳細說明，這影響了我們新的租賃變更。

For the entire portfolio, physical occupancy remained high at 96.3% for the quarter, driven by solid demand and strong retention in our coastal markets, excluding D.C., which gave up some occupancy at the end of the quarter.

本季度，整個投資組合的實際入住率保持在 96.3% 的高位，這主要得益於沿海市場的強勁需求和良好的續租率，但華盛頓特區除外，該市在本季末的入住率有所下降。

Let me take a minute and highlight a few of the markets that are driving performance. The recovery in San Francisco, particularly downtown, is real. As the epicenter of all things tech workers have returned to the market and drove high occupancy and very good rate growth on both new lease and renewal rates. This strength was supported by the positive trends we observed in our migration data with just over 4% more move-ins coming to us from outside both the MSA and the State of California.

讓我花點時間重點介紹幾個推動業績成長的市場。舊金山，尤其是市中心，正在切實復甦。作為科技工作者重返市場的中心，科技工作者推動了高入住率，新租約和續租價格均實現了非常可觀的成長。這一優勢也體現在我們觀察到的人口遷移數據中的正面趨勢上，來自大都會統計區和加州以外的遷入人口增加了 4% 以上。

In addition, we have a very favorable new supply setup in the market in 2026 with only about 1,000 units of competitive new supply being delivered. San Francisco will be our best-performing market in 2025 and most likely again in 2026 as we are just now approaching 2019 rent levels in our downtown portfolio while median incomes in the market are up 22% since 2019.

此外，2026 年市場上新的供應安排非常有利，只有約 1000 台具有競爭力的新供應設備交付。舊金山將在 2025 年成為我們表現最好的市場，而且很可能在 2026 年再次成為最佳市場，因為我們市中心投資組合的租金水平目前才剛剛接近 2019 年的水平，而該市場的中位數收入自 2019 年以來增長了 22%。

Similarly, New York continues to be a strong performer. Job sentiment in the market has been good and competitive new supply has been and will continue to be very low, which should position us to deliver above-average revenue growth again next year.

同樣，紐約的表現依然強勁。市場就業情況良好，競爭激烈的新職位供應一直並將繼續保持低位，這將使我們明年再次實現高於平均水平的收入成長。

I would note that our combined exposure to urban San Francisco and New York and the positive demand and supply outlook in 2026 is particularly unique to EQR and should be a relative strength for us versus peers next year. While DC will end up having a strong 2025, the year has certainly been a tale of two markets. The strength we saw early in the year carried through most of the third quarter, but as I mentioned, in late September, we definitely started to see some softness in demand and pricing power.

我想指出，我們對舊金山和紐約這兩個城市的綜合投資，以及2026年積極的供需前景，是EQR獨有的，明年這應該會成為我們相對於同行的相對優勢。儘管華盛頓特區在 2025 年最終會表現強勁，但這一年無疑是市場呈現兩極化的一年。今年年初的強勁勢頭一直延續到第三季的大部分時間，但正如我所提到的，9 月下旬，我們確實開始看到需求和定價能力出現一些疲軟跡象。

A combination of federal job cuts and the National Guard deployment followed by the government shutdown has created a lot of uncertainty in the local market. Most of the pressure is being felt in the district and in pockets of Northern Virginia, and these areas, our current operational focus is preserving occupancy.

聯邦政府裁員、國民警衛隊部署以及隨後的政府停擺，為當地市場帶來了許多不確定性。大部分壓力都集中在該地區和維吉尼亞州北部的一些地區，而我們目前的營運重點是保持這些地區的入住率。

And while we aren't experiencing residents turning in keys due to job loss, our overall turnover in the D.C. market did increase slightly in the quarter and the volume of leasing activity has slowed as the overall market still needs to absorb the nearly 13,000 units delivered this year.

雖然我們沒有遇到居民因失業而交還鑰匙的情況，但本季我們在華盛頓特區市場的整體週轉率略有上升，租賃活動量有所放緩，因為整個市場仍需消化今年交付的近 13,000 套住房。

The good news is that in 2026, competitive supply in D.C. will drop 65% and remain low for the foreseeable future, which is a marked change from the past decade. Add to that, our sense that in the long term, the federal government will continue to be a job engine regardless of the near-term headwinds of temporary cuts or shutdowns. Overall, we feel very good about D.C. as a market in the long term.

好消息是，到 2026 年，華盛頓特區的競爭性供應量將下降 65%，並在可預見的未來保持低位，這與過去十年相比發生了顯著變化。此外，我們認為，從長遠來看，無論短期內面臨臨時削減開支或停擺等不利因素，聯邦政府仍將繼續成為就業引擎。整體而言，我們對華盛頓特區市場的長期發展前景非常看好。

Shifting to Los Angeles. The city continues to face challenges and remains a wildcard as we head into 2026. We continue to see overall market weakness driven primarily by slowdowns in the entertainment industry and although the quality of life issues are improving, they are still not where we would like them to be. We have demand but less pricing power, particularly in the urban portfolio, where we continue to feel the impact of new supply in our Downtown, Koreatown and Mid-Wilshire portfolios.

搬到洛杉磯。進入 2026 年，這座城市仍面臨許多挑戰，未來走向仍不明朗。我們持續看到整體市場疲軟，這主要是由於娛樂業的放緩所致；雖然生活品質問題正在改善，但仍未達到我們希望的水平。我們有需求，但定價能力較弱，尤其是在城市投資組合方面，我們繼續感受到市中心、韓國城和威爾希爾中部投資組合中新增供應的影響。

Our suburban submarkets of Santa Clarita, Inland Empire and Ventura County are performing well. As in many of our coastal markets, supply will be lower in 2026 but we will need to see a catalyst for demand in order for us to have pricing power return. Our hope is that with the upcoming World Cup in 2026 and the Olympics in 2028 that there will be long-term incentives for the quality of life to improve in LA, albeit from a low base.

我們在聖克拉里塔、內陸帝國和文圖拉縣的郊區子市場表現良好。與我們許多沿海市場一樣，2026 年供應量將會減少，但我們需要看到需求的催化劑，才能恢復定價權。我們希望，隨著 2026 年世界盃和 2028 年奧運會的到來，能夠為洛杉磯的生活品質帶來長期的改善動力，儘管起點較低。

In our expansion markets, which currently represents only 6% of our same-store NOI and 11% of our total NOI, high levels of new supply continue to impact operating results in Atlanta, Dallas, Denver and Austin. Atlanta is faring the best of the four and Denver, the worst. Our same-store portfolios in both Atlanta and Dallas should see improved results and performed better than the broader market next year as we add our recently acquired more suburban assets to the same-store portfolios next year.

在我們擴張的市場中，目前僅占我們同店淨營業收入的 6% 和總淨營業收入的 11%，大量新增供應持續影響亞特蘭大、達拉斯、丹佛和奧斯汀的營運表現。亞特蘭大是四支球隊中表現最好的，丹佛是最差的。明年，隨著我們把最近收購的更多郊區資產添加到同店投資組合中，我們在亞特蘭大和達拉斯的同店投資組合的業績應該會有所改善，並且表現會優於大盤。

Before I turn it over to Bret, let me take a minute to highlight our current activities around innovation. In the third quarter, we deployed our AI-driven application processing tool which has already delivered a 50% reduction in the overall application time. We currently have about half of all applications being completed within one day, and this process includes a more robust comprehensive ID verification process that should help reduce fraudulent activity going forward.

在把發言權交給布雷特之前，請允許我花一分鐘時間重點介紹我們目前在創新方面的活動。第三季度，我們部署了人工智慧驅動的申請處理工具，該工具已使整體申請時間減少了 50%。目前，大約一半的申請都能在一天內完成，而且這個過程還包括更完善的身份驗證流程，這將有助於減少未來的詐騙活動。

Overall, I am really excited about the opportunities in 2026 as we continue to implement AI in other key areas of the resident experience. Next month, we will begin testing a new service application module that is designed to improve service request intake, provide self-service tips, optimize team schedules and ensure qualified team members, address task efficiently in a single visit.

總的來說，我對 2026 年的機會感到非常興奮，因為我們將繼續在居民體驗的其他關鍵領域實施人工智慧。下個月，我們將開始測試一個新的服務應用程式模組，該模組旨在改善服務請求接收、提供自助服務提示、優化團隊日程安排並確保合格的團隊成員能夠在一次訪問中有效地完成任務。

This is a great example of how we are focused on increasing the utilization of our workforce, while at the same time, creating a more seamless and responsive experience for our residents.

這很好地體現了我們如何致力於提高員工利用率，同時為居民創造更順暢和反應迅速的體驗。

I want to give a shout out to our amazing teams across our platform for their continued dedication to our residents while embracing change to further enhance our operating platform. Our portfolio will end 2025 well occupied with a strong platform that combines automation, centralization, along with a local team that knows how to keep our customers satisfied while getting a larger share of the demand pool whatever that level may be in the markets.

我要特別感謝我們平台上所有優秀的團隊，感謝他們一直以來對居民的奉獻，同時積極擁抱變革，進一步提升我們的營運平台。到 2025 年底，我們的投資組合將非常豐富，擁有一個強大的平台，該平台結合了自動化、集中化以及一支本地團隊，該團隊知道如何讓客戶滿意，同時無論市場需求水平如何，都能獲得更大的市場份額。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Bret.

接下來，我將把電話交給布雷特。

Thanks, Michael. Before I walk through our updated guidance, I first wanted to say how excited I am to be here at Equity Residential working alongside Mark, Michael, Bob and the rest of our talented corporate team. It's been nearly 100 days since I joined the company, and I'm even more impressed with the organization than when I started.

謝謝你，麥可。在詳細介紹我們更新後的指導方針之前，我首先想表達我非常高興能加入 Equity Residential，與 Mark、Michael、Bob 以及我們其他才華橫溢的公司團隊成員一起工作。加入公司至今已近100天，我對公司的印像比剛入職時更加深刻了。

I'm comfortable stating that because one of the first things I did here was hit the road and visit many of our communities and hardworking associates across the country. My early travels included some of our top-performing markets, such as San Francisco and New York, where I saw the quality and location of our assets firsthand as well as the innovative operating platform Michael and the team have established.

我之所以能這樣說，是因為我上任後做的第一件事就是走訪全國各地的許多社區，拜訪我們辛勤工作的同事們。我早期的考察行程包括我們一些表現最好的市場，例如舊金山和紐約，在那裡我親眼目睹了我們資產的品質和位置，以及邁克爾和他的團隊建立的創新營運平台。

I visited Seattle, where we are set up well for 2026, benefiting from local return to office mandates and continued AI investment growth. I also traveled to Dallas, one of our larger expansion markets and witnessed constant examples of the outsized demand growth dynamics that are driving our positive long-term thesis on that metro area. I'm grateful to all my new colleagues for helping me get up to speed so quickly.

我訪問了西雅圖，我們已為 2026 年做好了充分準備，受益於當地重返辦公室的指令和人工智慧投資的持續成長。我還前往達拉斯，這是我們較大的擴張市場之一，並親眼目睹了巨大的需求成長動力，這推動了我們對該都市區長期發展的積極看法。我非常感謝所有新同事，是他們幫助我快速上手工作。

With that said, let me provide some color on the guidance adjustments we made this quarter, which continued to reflect a stable and resilient business outlook, albeit amid some macroeconomic and employment uncertainty, as Mark and Michael described.

綜上所述，讓我詳細介紹一下我們本季所做的業績指引調整，正如馬克和邁克爾所描述的那樣，儘管存在一些宏觀經濟和就業方面的不確定性，但我們依然保持著穩定且富有韌性的業務前景。

We've adjusted the top end of our full year same-store revenue outlook down as a result of third quarter same-store blended rate coming in at the lower end of our prior range and what we have seen in early fourth quarter trends.

由於第三季同店綜合成長率處於我們先前預期範圍的下限，以及我們在第四季初的趨勢，我們已將全年同店營收預期上限下調。

In addition, a portion of other income growth related to bulk WiFi that we expected to realize in the second half of 2025 has rolled out slightly slower than planned and will now be pushed into 2026. That said, we still saw strong quarter-over-quarter growth in other income of 9%, demonstrating our ability to continue to pull multiple levers to drive overall revenue.

此外，我們預計在 2025 年下半年實現的與批量 WiFi 相關的其他收入成長的一部分，其推出速度略低於計劃，現在將推遲到 2026 年。儘管如此，我們的其他收入仍然實現了 9% 的強勁環比成長，這表明我們有能力繼續採取多種措施來推動整體營收成長。

The combination of these two factors resulted in a revised 2025 same-store revenue range of 2.5% to 3%, with a midpoint of 2.75%, which matches the midpoint of the range we guided to at the beginning of this year. We held same-store expenses steady at 3.5% to 4% for the full year and continue to see sub-inflationary trends on payroll, insurance and real estate taxes, partially offset by higher utility expenses, particularly in California.

這兩個因素結合起來，使得 2025 年同店營收成長預期範圍修訂為 2.5% 至 3%，中位數為 2.75%，這與我們今年年初給出的預期範圍的中位數相符。全年同店支出穩定在 3.5% 至 4%，工資、保險和房地產稅繼續保持低於通膨的趨勢，但部分被更高的公用事業支出所抵消，尤其是在加州。

I would remind you that our 2025 same-store expenses are approximately 40 basis points higher this year due to the continued rollout of bulk WiFi, which sits in repairs and maintenance, but is positively contributing to outsized other income growth for the remainder of the year and will continue to do so as we move into 2026.

我想提醒各位，由於持續推廣批量 WiFi，我們 2025 年的同店支出比今年高出約 40 個基點，這部分支出用於維修和維護，但對今年剩餘時間的其他收入增長做出了積極貢獻，並且隨著我們進入 2026 年，這種情況還將繼續。

The net result of these same-store revenue and expense adjustments is a revised annual same-store NOI range of 2.1% to 2.6% at a midpoint of 2.35%, 15 basis points higher than our original 2025 guidance, but 15 basis points lower than the midpoint we provided in the second quarter.

經對同店收入和支出進行調整後，年度同店淨營業收入 (NOI) 的修訂範圍為 2.1% 至 2.6%，中位數為 2.35%，比我們最初的 2025 年指導值高出 15 個基點，但比我們在第二季度提供的中位數低 15 個基點。

For normalized FFO, we've tightened our range of both the top and bottom end and are estimating full year 2025 and FFO per share of $3.98 to $4.02, leaving the midpoint unchanged from Q2 at $4 per share. Slightly reduced same-store NOI should be offset by expected continued improvements in lease-up NOI and lower property management expense.

對於正常化 FFO，我們收緊了上限和下限的範圍，預計 2025 年全年每股 FFO 為 3.98 美元至 4.02 美元，中點與第二季度持平，仍為每股 4 美元。同店淨營業收入略有下降，但預計租賃淨營業收入將持續改善，物業管理費用也將降低，抵銷此下降。

With that, I will turn it over to the operator and open it up for questions.

接下來，我將把電話交給接線員，並開放提問環節。

(Operator instructions) Eric Wolfe, Citi.

（操作員說明）埃里克·沃爾夫，花旗銀行。

It's Nick Joseph here with Eric. I appreciate the comments on the peak leasing season and totally understand that the timing of each year is a bit unique. But I guess in the past, when you've seen rent growth falling at this time of the year, how do you approach the forecast for next year's growth?

我是尼克·約瑟夫，我是艾瑞克。我感謝您對租賃旺季的評論，也完全理解每年的旺季時間都會有所不同。但我想，過去在這個時候，如果租金成長出現下滑，你會如何預測明年的成長呢？

And how do you decide whether these are more temporary factors affecting rent growth or it's something that's more likely to persist going forward?

那麼，如何判斷這些因素是影響租金成長的暫時性因素，還是更有可能持續下去的因素呢？

Yes. Nick, this is Michael. I mean that's a great question. I think what I would start with is just say, as what we felt coming out of that peak leasing season and looking at some of the deceleration that occurred in that later part of September as carried through October. We basically just took kind of that seasonality through the rest of the year.

是的。尼克，這是麥可。我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題。我想首先要說的是，我們感受到了租賃旺季結束後的市場疲軟，並觀察到9月下旬到10月期間市場成長放緩的趨勢。基本上，我們只是把這種季節性因素貫穿到一年中的其他時間。

And how it kind of manifests itself into next year. There's still a lot of seasonality to these blends. And I think I'm going to stay away from kind of giving the exact kind of guidance or outlook to next year. But we do expect to start out next year well occupied with some embedded growth. It looks very similar to kind of how we started out this year.

以及它將如何影響明年。這些混合咖啡仍然具有很強的季節性。而且我認為我還是不要對明年給予具體的指導或展望了。但我們預計明年年初我們將迎來一些穩定成長。看起來和我們今年年初的情況非常相似。

And I think the wildcard for us is really going to be what is that intraperiod kind of rate growth look like? And for us, in many of these markets, it's going to be when does that consumer sentiment turn positive again. We have such a great setup with the reduction of competitive supply being so much lower in many of these markets. It's not going to take much of a catalyst from that sentiment change or any kind of catalyst in the job growth in these markets to really fuel that intra-period growth.

我認為對我們來說，真正的未知數在於期間內的利率成長如何？對我們來說，在許多市場，關鍵在於消費者信心何時才能再次轉好。在許多市場中，由於競爭性供應減少的幅度非常小，我們的市場格局非常有利。這種情緒轉變或這些市場就業成長方面的任何催化劑都不足以真正推動期內成長。

So I think for us, I'm going to stay away, like I said, from giving you the guidance, but we're modeling right now for continued deceleration for the back of the year, but still feel pretty good about the setup and the outlook into next year.

所以我覺得，就像我之前說的，我不會給出具體的指導意見，但我們目前的模型預測今年下半年經濟成長將繼續放緩，不過我們對明年的情況和前景仍然感覺相當樂觀。

I appreciate that. And then just in terms of capital allocation, you've done $100 million on the buyback so far. Given where the stock is today, what are the factors? Or how are you thinking about really leaning into that and doing it at a much more meaningful scale versus other opportunities with your capital allocation?

我很感激。就資本配置而言，你們目前已經投入了 1 億美元用於股票回購。鑑於該股票目前的走勢，有哪些因素會影響其價格？或者，您打算如何真正投入其中，並以比在其他投資機會中更大的規模來實現這一目標？

Nick, it's Mark. Thanks for that question. There's really two inputs. I mean one is the attractiveness of our other investment opportunities, which is predominantly buying existing assets or building new assets versus the stock and obviously, we voted for the stock over the last quarter and bought that. There's also -- the availability and cost is the other factor of the capital we need to acquire the stock and it's really only two places.

尼克，我是馬克。謝謝你的提問。實際上有兩個輸入。我的意思是，一方面是我們其他投資機會的吸引力，這些機會主要是購買現有資產或建造新資產，而不是股票；另一方面，顯然，我們在上個季度投票支持了股票，並且買入了股票。還有一點——資金的可用性和成本是我們收購股票所需資金的另一個因素，但實際上只有兩個地方。

We either have to issue debt or we have to sell assets because as you well know as a REIT, we just can't retain much in the way of earnings. We pay a really nice $1 billion a year dividend already. So our lean right now is to continue to do asset sales of these lower return profile assets or assets we have over concentration in the submarket, kind of improve the forward growth potential of the business and arbitrage the private public markets and continue to be thoughtful about buying more stock.

我們要么發行債券，要么出售資產，因為如您所知，作為房地產投資信託基金，我們根本無法保留太多收益。我們每年已經支付高達10億美元的股利。因此，我們目前的策略是繼續出售這些回報率較低的資產或我們在子市場中過度集中的資產，以提高業務的未來成長潛力，並在私募和公開市場之間進行套利，並繼續謹慎地考慮購買更多股票。

But exact levels and stuff are just dependent on where the stock price goes and the opportunity set goes. And we'll be open to that. But I just want to remind everyone, and again, I know you know this, Nick, but there are real tax gain limits. We have a lot of embedded gain in our assets. We've done a lot of good investing over the years and our assets are worth a lot more than the basis is a lot lower the tax basis. So there'll be a lot of gain.

但具體的水平等等，都取決於股價的走勢和投資機會的出現。我們對此持開放態度。但我只想提醒大家，我知道你也知道這一點，尼克，但稅收收益是有實際限制的。我們的資產中蘊含著巨大的收益潛力。多年來，我們做了很多不錯的投資，我們的資產價值遠高於成本，而稅基則低得多。所以會有很多收益。

We also did [103] I'd also point out, I want to be careful not descaling the company too much. There's a lot of fixed costs in running a public company of this size. So we just want to be thoughtful about that. But we're very open to additional buyback activity in the quarter.

我們也做了[103] 我還想指出，我想小心不要讓公司規模縮小太多。經營一家如此規模的上市公司有許多固定成本。所以我們希望認真考慮這個問題。但我們對本季進行更多回購活動持非常開放態度。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa，Evercore ISI。

I was wondering, Michael, if you could provide any color on just kind of where the earning sits today as we kind of head towards the end of the year?

邁克爾，我想問你，隨著年底臨近，你能否就目前的盈利狀況提供一些資訊？

Yes. So I think maybe I'm going to just start off and let me define or clarify embedded growth, which is kind of also referred to as that earn in. And it basically just means that you're freezing the rent roll on 12/31. You annualize all the leases in place with no changes to occupancy or vacancy loss throughout the year. We started 2025 out with approximately 80 basis points of embedded growth on the same-store set.

是的。所以我想我應該先從定義或澄清嵌入式成長開始，它也被稱為「賺取成長」。這基本上意味著你將 12 月 31 日的租金收入凍結。您將所有現有租賃合約按年結算，全年入住率或空置率均無變化。2025 年伊始，我們預計同店銷售額將實現約 80 個基點的成長。

And while that was slightly below the historical average of 1%, it was still a pretty solid position for us to start off the year. Given the current momentum that we see now and some of that deceleration that I just referred to that we modeled, we now expect 2026 to start out in a relatively similar position than we did this year.

雖然這略低於 1% 的歷史平均水平，但對我們來說，這仍然是一個相當穩固的開局。鑑於我們目前看到的勢頭，以及我剛才提到的我們模擬的一些減速情況，我們現在預計 2026 年的開局將與今年的情況相對相似。

And our view is a little bit lower than what we thought 90 days ago. And this is really just a result of us taking down that trajectory of the fourth quarter given some of the deceleration that we saw begin in kind of late September. And I do want to call out because I know a lot of you guys have these models. And while the math is not perfect, right, rough estimates, you start out with about 50% of the expected full year blended growth. But in 2026, we're going to also be folding in some of the assets in the expansion market.

我們現在的預期比90天前略低。這其實只是因為我們在9月下旬開始看到成長放緩，所以才調整了第四季的成長軌跡。我之所以要特別提一下，是因為我知道你們很多人都有這些型號的模型。雖然計算並不完美，但粗略估計，你一開始就能獲得全年預期綜合成長率的 50% 左右。但到 2026 年，我們也將把一些擴張市場的資產併入其中。

And while these assets are clearly performing better than the same-store assets in those markets, they're not performing better than the overall kind of coastal same-store portfolio. So it's going to be a little bit dilutive to that embedded starting point. But again, I think at the high level, we would say we're going to start out 2026 in a relatively similar position as we did in 2025.

雖然這些資產的表現明顯優於這些市場的同店資產，但它們的表現卻不如沿海同店投資組合的整體表現。所以，這會對原有的起點造成一些稀釋作用。但總的來說，我認為從宏觀層面來看，我們2026年的開局將與2025年的情況相對相似。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just going back, it sounds like with the slowdown in the seasonal trend, it sounds like there's a bit more pressure on kind of the new lease trend and kind of top-of-funnel demand. I'm just curious if you're seeing any change in behavior on the renewal side? And have you had any kind of real change in the renewal success? Or are you seeing really is most of the weakness really happening on the new lease side of the business?

偉大的。那很有幫助。然後，或許回到過去，隨著季節性趨勢的放緩，似乎對新租賃趨勢和漏斗頂端的需求造成了更大的壓力。我只是好奇，在續訂方面，您是否觀察到任何行為變化？續約成功率方面是否有任何實質的變化？或者您認為大部分疲軟實際上都發生在新的租賃業務方面？

Yes, Steve, this is Michael again. Great question. So I think what we noticed in select pockets of markets and the renewal process, there tended to be a little bit of a hesitation. So a little bit more back and forth. And again, we have centralized our -- we have a centralized renewal team handling all of these negotiations or conversations and it's really allowed us to execute these various strategies, but we noticed a little bit more kind of back and forth a little bit of this hesitation.

是的，史蒂夫，我是麥可。問得好。所以我覺得我們注意到，在某些特定市場和續約過程中，往往會出現一些猶豫。所以還需要再來回溝通。再次強調，我們已經將續約事宜集中化——我們有一個集中化的續約團隊來處理所有這些談判或對話，這確實使我們能夠執行這些不同的策略，但我們注意到，這種猶豫不決的情況有所增加。

Right now, for the next several months, our quotes have been sent out in the marketplace. We typically send out renewal offers about 90 days in advance. Those markets -- those quotes were sent out about 6%. And sitting here today, we got a lot of confidence in our process.

目前，未來幾個月，我們的報價已在市場上發出。我們通常會提前90天左右發出續約通知。那些市場——那些報價發出了大約 6%。今天坐在這裡，我們對我們的流程充滿了信心。

We would expect to have achieved kind of net effective renewal increases to land right around 4.5%. This is typically a time where we're going to lean into retention, and we'll tend to negotiate a little bit more as we hit the shoulder part of the season. But I think we saw a little bit of that hesitation, but we still have a lot of confidence in our process. And again, we're seeing really strong resident retention occur. It's just taking a little bit more kind of back and forth, a little more effort to secure those leases.

我們預計淨有效更新率將達到 4.5% 左右。通常情況下，這個時候我們會更專注於留住人才，隨著賽季進入過渡階段，我們傾向於進行更多談判。但我認為我們看到了他們有些猶豫，但我們仍然對我們的流程充滿信心。我們再次看到居民留存率非常高。只是需要多一些來回溝通，多花一些精力才能確保這些租賃合約的簽訂。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

Alexander Goldfarb，Piper Sandler。

Two questions. Bret, maybe I'll start with you and kick it off. And by the way, a nice job on your [Blue Jays] last night. And so this may predate you, but I think you guys did converts back in 2006. Once again, they seem to be all the rates. You guys have some mid-3% debt coming due next year. Just curious where your headset is on the potential to reenter the convert market or if your view is, hey, we did it two decades ago. We had an experience. We haven't done it since and that's the message is that you guys may just stick with traditional. Just trying to understand, especially given some of the receptiveness we've seen from some other large REITs pricing converts pretty tightly.

兩個問題。布雷特，或許我可以先從你開始，破冰。順便說一句，你們昨晚對陣藍鳥隊表現不錯。所以這件事可能比你早，但我認為你們在 2006 年就進行過皈依活動。它們似乎又是所有利率。你們明年有一些3%左右的債務到期。我只是好奇您對重新進入轉換器市場的潛力有何看法，或者您的觀點是，嘿，我們二十年前就做到了。我們經歷了一件事。我們之後就沒再這麼做了，這傳達的訊息是，你們或許應該堅持傳統的做法。我只是想了解一下，特別是考慮到我們從其他一些大型 REIT 那裡看到的接受度，定價轉換非常嚴格。

Alex, it's Mark. I'm going to start here. It is historical context that Bret lacks, but certainly understands converts very well given his experience level. So when we did that back in '06, we did that in part because we were working with the Lexford portfolio sale and buying into lower cap rate, higher growth markets like New York. And so this was a little bit of an asset matching exercise for us, and the terms were pretty appealing. So I do think converts are an interesting tool. I think there are times they're very beneficial.

Alex，我是Mark。我就從這裡開始。布雷特缺乏的是歷史背景，但以他的經驗水平來看，他肯定非常了解皈依者。所以，我們在 2006 年這樣做，部分原因是我們當時正在處理 Lexford 投資組合的出售事宜，並投資於像紐約這樣資本化率較低、成長速度較高的市場。因此，這對我們來說有點像是資產匹配練習，而且條款相當有吸引力。所以我認為轉換率是一個很有趣的工具。我認為有些時候它們非常有用。

If we got our hands, for example, on a portfolio where it was a big lease-up effort that we were going to have, our big renovation effort, and it was pretty material. You might match fund that with some converts. The accounting disclosure converts is pretty favorable now. And then if it's succeeded, the convert holders would benefit the existing equity holders would benefit and it would all make some sense.

例如，如果我們接手了一個投資組合，其中包含我們將要進行的大規模租賃工作、大規模翻新工作，而且金額相當可觀。你可以用一些皈依者的捐款來匹配這筆資金。目前的會計揭露轉換情況相當有利。如果成功，可轉換債券持有人將受益，現有股權持有人也將受益，這一切都將變得合理。

Otherwise, we're an opportunistic and infrequent issuer of converts. It's a little awkward to be buying your stock back and issuing converts at the same time. So we'll just have to balance that out.

否則，我們將成為機會主義且不頻繁地發行轉換證書的機構。同時回購股票和發行可轉換債券有點尷尬。所以我們必須想辦法平衡一下。

Okay. And then the second question is on AI. A lot of discussion on whether it's sort of a net job creator or it's maybe a job eliminator or it's just obviously different headlines on layoffs and stuff. So in your key AI markets like New York and San Francisco, are you seeing a ripple effect where the AI job hiring is benefiting other related industries and you're seeing net overall job growth? Or are you seeing sort of the reverse where AI job growth is ending up with other positions in those markets being eliminated and replaced by AI.

好的。第二個問題是關於人工智慧的。關於它究竟是創造就業機會的淨增長點，還是導致就業崗位減少的淨增長點，或者僅僅是裁員等新聞標題各不相同，都有很多討論。那麼，在紐約和舊金山等你們的主要人工智慧市場，你們是否看到人工智慧就業的招聘帶動了其他相關行業的成長，從而實現了整體就業淨增長？或者你看到的是相反的情況，即人工智慧就業成長最終導致這些市場中的其他職位被人工智慧取代？

Yes, what an excellent question. It's Mark. I'm going to suggest that Michael will just tell you what he's hearing from people on site and in the markets and give you that intel. And then I'm going to sort of give you what we've been thinking about on the AI side and employment in the long run, but I'd tell you it's very -- of course, very unknown at this point. So Michael.

是的，這真是個好問題。是馬克。我建議麥可直接把他從現場和市場上的人那裡聽到的消息告訴你，然後把這些情報給你。然後，我將向你們介紹我們一直在思考的人工智慧對長期就業的影響，但我必須告訴你們，目前這方面的情況非常——當然，非常未知。所以，麥可。

Yes. I mean I think one of the best indicators we have is when we drill into some of our migration data, which is where our new residents coming to us from, what industries are they working with? I wouldn't necessarily say, Alex, that this is all driven because of AI that we're feeling. But when you look at San Francisco and New York, San Francisco clearly saw in migration, 4% more of our move-ins coming to us from outside the state of California, outside kind of that MSA, which basically is telling us.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們最好的指標之一就是深入研究我們的一些移民數據，例如我們的新居民來自哪裡，他們在哪些行業工作？亞歷克斯，我不一定會說我們感受到的這一切都是由人工智慧驅動的。但看看舊金山和紐約，舊金山的人口遷移情況就很明顯，有 4% 的人口是從加州以外、大都會統計區以外遷入的，這基本上告訴我們。

There's a lot of kind of excitement going on. I mean this is the epicenter of tech. So even though you see the big guys kind of really dominating the headlines around AI, there's a lot of other startup industries. There's a lot of businesses now that are benefiting from just an overall shift in the technology strategy of companies. And I think we're benefiting from that. New York, what was interesting for us is we saw a slight uptick in that migration pattern coming in from outside that MSA.

現在到處都充滿了令人興奮的氣氛。我的意思是，這裡是科技中心。所以，儘管你看到人工智慧領域的大公司佔據了新聞頭條，但還有很多其他的創業產業。現在很多企業都受惠於公司整體技術策略的轉變。我認為我們從中受益匪淺。紐約方面，我們注意到，來自該大都會統計區以外的移民模式略有上升。

But what was cool on the outbound side, people that were leaving our portfolio we're staying in the state and in the MSA at a higher degree than what we saw before, which gives us confidence that kind of that market is going to be doing really well for us next year.

但令人欣喜的是，那些離開我們投資組合的人，現在更多地留在了本州和大都會統計區，這比我們之前看到的要多得多，這讓我們相信，明年這個市場將會發展得非常好。

Yes. Just to tack on -- yes. One last thought on the AI side. I mean, clearly, there's been a lot of talk about whether AI is going to get rid of a lot of white-collar jobs. No one knows the answer to that question.

是的。補充一點——是的。關於人工智慧方面，最後一點想法。我的意思是，很顯然，人們一直在討論人工智慧是否會取代許多白領工作。沒有人知道這個問題的答案。

A lot of the comments about vast displacement are being made by folks, Alex, as you know, who greatly benefit from the AI boom. And so it's a little bit about talking your own book. That said, I do think AI is an interesting tool. And I think it's going to change the relationship between colleges, students and employers.

亞歷克斯，正如你所知，許多關於大規模人口遷移的評論都是由那些從人工智慧熱潮中獲益匪淺的人發表的。所以這有點像是在自說自話。話雖如此，我確實認為人工智慧是一個很有趣的工具。我認為這將改變大學、學生和雇主之間的關係。

Right now, I think the unspoken deal is colleges turn out smart people with good general skill sets but not necessarily work-ready skills. And I think what's going to happen going -- and you spend a year or two teaching those people, your vocation, their vocation and then they're pretty productive for you. I think colleges are going to have to put at a premium teaching people, data analytics and AI skills, so they're going to show up with the equivalent of second or third year employee skill sets and be able to move forward.

我認為目前大學培養出的都是聰明人，他們擁有良好的綜合技能，但不一定具備實際工作所需的技能。我認為接下來會發生這樣的事——你花一兩年時間教這些人你的職業技能，他們的職業技能，然後他們就會為你做出很大的貢獻。我認為大學必須重視培養學生的數據分析和人工智慧技能，這樣他們畢業後就能具備相當於二年級或三年級員工的技能，並且能夠繼續發展。

You know the kind of people that we have at our properties. These are highly educated folks. These are often Gen Z and millennials that are digital natives. They understand technology. They will learn AI, and they'll learn to use it better, I would argue than anyone else. So my sense is the market will adapt to this, and I'm not a believer in the no one will have a job theory of AI employment.

你知道我們旗下物業的住客都是什麼樣子的人。這些人都是受過高等教育的人。這些人通常是Z世代和千禧世代，他們是數位原住民。他們懂技術。他們會學習人工智慧，而且我認為他們會比任何人都更好地運用它。所以我的感覺是市場會適應這種情況，我不相信人工智慧會導致無人就業的理論。

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

Jana Galan，美國銀行。

Question for Michael, following up on your San Francisco comments. If you could speak to your prior experience in that market when demand starts to accelerate, how quickly can rent increase? And then does seasonality still hold or kind of not as much given the growth in jobs?

邁克爾，關於你之前在舊金山發表的評論，我有個問題想問你。根據您以往在該市場的經驗，當需求開始加速成長時，租金上漲的速度會有多快？那麼，隨著就業機會的成長，季節性因素是否依然存在，還是已經不那麼明顯了？

Yes. I mean obviously, anytime you have supply-demand kind of imbalance. And in this case in San Francisco, you have very little competitive supply, and you have more demand coming into the portfolio, that creates this opportunity for rent growth. And I think I alluded to in my prepared remarks, we're just now getting back to 2019 kind of rent levels in our portfolio but when you look at incomes in that market, it's up 22% since 2019.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，任何時候出現供需失衡都會出現這種情況。而就舊金山而言，競爭性供應非常少，而對投資組合的需求卻在增加，這就創造了租金成長的機會。正如我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，我們現在才剛剛恢復到 2019 年的租金水平，但如果你看看該市場的收入，自 2019 年以來已經增長了 22%。

So I think, historically, what you see is any time you have this imbalance and you have strong demand, less supply you're going to be in a position of pricing power. I don't know that it's going to completely abate any kind of seasonality trends. So you may see some softening in very strong numbers still like in the fourth quarter or in the first quarter. But we clearly have an opportunity in front of us. And this is exactly what we kind of highlighted earlier in the year at our Investor Day, this recovery is taking hold, and we're really excited as we get kind of playing out at this pace.

所以我認為，從歷史經驗來看，任何時候出現這種供需失衡，需求強勁而供應不足時，你都會處於定價權的位置。我不認為這會完全消除任何季節性趨勢。因此，您可能會看到一些非常強勁的數字出現回落，例如第四季度或第一季的數據。但我們面前顯然擺著一個機會。而這正是我們在今年稍早的投資者日上重點強調的，這種復甦正在穩步推進，我們對此感到非常興奮，因為復甦正以這樣的速度發展。

And a quick one for Bret on the WiFi expenses. You mentioned it was kind of a 40 bps delta in 2025. Is there additional expense related to this initiative in '26 or that will kind of just be smoothed out?

還有，布雷特，關於WiFi費用，我得問你一個問題。你提到到 2025 年，利率將出現大約 40 個基點的波動。2026 年這項計畫是否會產生額外的費用，還是會得到某種程度的緩解？

Thanks for the question. No, that's primarily for this year. So right now, we're just looking forward to getting the revenue after we've had the expenses run through this year.

謝謝你的提問。不，那主要是針對今年的。所以現在，我們只期待在扣除今年的所有費用後獲得收入。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Can you give your perspective on what you expect to happen in D.C. over the next 6 to 12 months? And how much of an impact has shut down historically have? And how much do you expect this one to have?

您能否談談您對未來 6 到 12 個月華盛頓特區可能發生的事情的看法？歷史上，停工停產究竟造成了多大的影響？你預計這款會有多少？

Yes. Brad, this is Michael. So maybe I'm going to start. I just want to give a little bit of color as to what have we observed in D.C.? How do the various submarkets kind of appear today? And then I'll kind of shift it as to what we would expect for the balance of the year or turning into next year.

是的。布拉德，這位是麥可。所以也許我應該開始了。我只想簡單介紹一下我們在華盛頓特區觀察到的情況？現今各個細分市場大致呈現怎樣的格局？然後我會稍微調整一下，談談我們對今年剩餘時間或明年的預期。

So first and foremost, I think what we observed in that first or second week of September is a little bit of that hesitancy that I described on that renewal process, but also taking hold with prospects. There was just a little less sense of urgency to buy and sign on the dotted line and commit to kind of move-in date. So that manifested itself as we worked our way through September into October with just a lower volume of kind of new leases occurring. The retention side held up strong.

首先，我認為我們在 9 月的第一周或第二週觀察到的，是我之前描述的那種續約過程中的猶豫情緒，而且這種猶豫情緒也在潛在客戶中蔓延開來。人們似乎沒有那麼迫切地想要購買、簽署並確定入住日期。因此，從九月到十月，新租賃的數量有所減少，這種情況就顯現出來了。保持力方面表現強勁。

When you look at D.C. today, if you peeled out our D.C. market, we have a suburban Maryland portfolio doing very well, right? It's 97% plus occupied. It's got rents slightly on top of where they were last year. You go into the Virginia portfolio, go deep suburban into Fairfax. I got good occupancy and I got rents up a couple of percent.

如果你今天觀察華盛頓特區，如果把我們的華盛頓特區市場剝離出來，你會發現我們在馬裡蘭州郊區的投資組合表現非常出色，對吧？入住率超過97%。租金比去年略高。你進入維吉尼亞州的投資組合，深入費爾法克斯郊區。入住率不錯，租金也漲了幾個百分點。

Start coming in towards DC in that Virginia portfolio where you've got a more urban concentration continue with the supply and I've still got solid occupancies, but I got pockets where I don't have pricing power where I had to start utilizing concessions. And then you get into D.C., Northwest D.C. along with D.C. kind of the district central area, I've got occupancies that are running 95%, 95.5%. I've got concession use that has clearly increased in the last four weeks and I got net effective prices that are down 4%.

開始朝華盛頓特區方向發展，在維吉尼亞州的投資組合中，城市化程度更高，繼續增加供應，我的入住率仍然很穩定，但有些地方我沒有定價權，不得不開始採取讓步措施。然後你進入華盛頓特區，西北華盛頓特區以及華盛頓特區的中心區域，我的入住率達到了 95%、95.5%。在過去的四周裡，特許經營的使用量明顯增加，而淨有效價格下降了 4%。

So we've modeled that out for the rest of the year. I -- we're not seeing kind of folks that lost their job with the government turning in keys, we're not seeing kind of any of this increase in lease breaks. You're just seeing an overall slowdown in the top of the funnel and this willingness to commit to a lease.

因此，我們已經對今年剩餘時間的情況進行了建模。我——我們沒有看到那些失去政府工作的人交還鑰匙，也沒有看到任何提前終止租約的情況增加。你看到的只是銷售漏斗頂端整體增速放緩以及簽訂租賃合約的意願下降。

And I think for us, we'll have to expect that to continue through the balance of the year. I think consumer sentiment is tricky, right? It can shift on us very quickly and turn back positive. You can get past the government shutdown. You can get some confidence back in hiring, and then that market is going to be really well positioned again because we just have a huge decline in competitive supply coming to our advantage next year, that it's not going to take much for us to have pricing power. The trick is exactly when is that inflection point take hold.

我認為對我們來說，我們必須預料到這種情況會持續到今年年底。我覺得消費者情緒很難捉摸，對吧？情況可能瞬息萬變，轉而轉好。政府停擺是可以克服的。你可以重拾招募的信心，然後市場將再次處於非常有利的地位，因為明年競爭性供應將大幅下降，這對我們有利，我們很快就能擁有定價權。關鍵在於這個轉折點究竟何時出現。

Okay. Got it. And then on San Francisco, you've called out the difference in rent growth and income since the pandemic a couple of times. Do you think we're in sort of a multiyear above-average growth environment where we might see that differential narrow quite a bit? Or is there some component of rent having outrun fundamentals in the past and now we're seeing sort of a catch-up as well?

好的。知道了。關於舊金山，你曾多次指出疫情以來租金成長與收入的差異。你認為我們是否正處於一個多年高於平均水平的成長環境中，可能會看到這種差距大幅縮小？或者說，租金上漲速度過去是否超過了基本面，而現在我們看到的是一種追趕現象？

I mean, I think our view, clearly, when you look at the recovery is that we have some good years in front of us in that market. Technology is advancing quickly, that market is clearly at the center of that. You see the migration patterns. You see the income going up. You see rent levels that are still at a really good discount relative to historical standards. So that when you put it all in the blender, tells me that we should expect some outsized kind of growth for the next couple of years there.

我的意思是，很明顯，從復甦的角度來看，我們認為未來幾年這個市場前景一片光明。科技日新月異，而這個市場顯然正處於科技發展的核心。你可以看到遷徙模式。你會看到收入在成長。你可以看到，目前的租金水平與歷史標準相比仍然有很大的折扣。所以，把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮，就預示著未來幾年那裡可能會出現某種超乎尋常的增長。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克雷默，摩根士丹利。

I think, Mark, in your opening comments, you used the word elongated, talking about sort of the recovery in the expansion markets. So wanted to maybe double-click on that. I'd be interested to hear if that's more of a lease growth comment if that's sort of relative to expectations about the seasonal curve that maybe you don't expect a normal seasonal curve there in the expansion markets in '26?

馬克，我想你在開場白中用了「延長」這個詞，指的是擴張市場的某種復甦。所以我想雙擊一下看看。我很想知道，這是否更多是關於租賃成長的評論，或者這是否與對季節性曲線的預期有關，也許您預計在 2026 年的擴張市場中不會出現正常的季節性曲線？

I guess, just more broadly, any color on market rent growth expectations. I know it's still early, but market rent with expectations for next year, maybe coastal versus expansion markets would be really helpful.

我猜，更廣泛地說，大家對市場租​​金成長預期有什麼看法？我知道現在還為時過早，但如果能提供明年的市場租金預期，以及沿海市場與擴張市場的對比訊息，將會非常有幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Adam. I'll start and Michael or Bob may contribute as well. So I was alluding in part to the fact that though people are very aware of deliveries in these expansion markets, in these Sunbelt markets. They don't really think as much about how long it takes to fully absorb, which in a highly supplied market, can it be at least one renewal cycle.

是的。謝謝你，亞當。我先開始，Michael 或 Bob 也可能會參與其中。所以我的部分意思是，雖然人們非常關注這些擴張市場和陽光地帶市場的交付。他們並沒有真正考慮完全吸收需要多長時間，而在供應充足的市場中，這可能需要至少一個更新週期。

And that was the other point I made in the remarks. So I want to give some perspective. Like we're not prescient about all this, but I think we were rational about how quickly absorption would occur in pricing power return to landlords. The assets that we bought a couple of years ago in these markets, when we were looking recently at their performance, we were within 1% of our underwriting on NOI.

這也是我在發言中提出的另一點。所以我想提供一些不同的視角。雖然我們並非對這一切有先見之明，但我認為我們對房東定價權恢復的速度的預期是合理的。幾年前我們在這些市場購買的資產，最近我們查看了它們的表現，發現我們的淨營業收入與承保預期相差不到 1%。

So I think what we just had in mind was that concessions would persist that rent growth would be minimal to negative for a while that, that was just what happens when you're in a very heavily supplied situation. And then you'll get out of it in your role. But I think that inflection point, people have kept wanting to put that inflection point on the date that deliveries declined and we just didn't believe that.

所以我覺得我們剛才的想法是，優惠政策會持續下去，租金成長在一段時間內將保持在最低水平甚至為負，這就是在供應非常充足的情況下會發生的情況。然後你就能擺脫你的角色了。但我認為，人們一直想把轉捩點定在交貨量下降的那天，但我們並不相信這一點。

That is, I guess, sums up how we underwrote differently. We were more focused on the full absorption, the full amount of the supply being just part of the normal volume in that market and not pressuring existing owners very much. I would expect coastal markets to have higher same-store revenue growth by a fair margin next year, all the low leases that were written this year are going to be in next year's rent roll and are going to pressure those numbers.

我想，這大概就是我們不同的承保方式的概括吧。我們更注重的是完全消化，全部供應量只是該市場正常供應量的一部分，不會給現有業主帶來太多壓力。我預計明年海岸市場的同店收入成長幅度會更大，今年簽訂的所有低租金租約都將計入明年的租金收入，這將對這些數字構成壓力。

You may see and we expect to see some improvement I hope earlier next year, but it could be later depending on the job situation in the second derivative and that rate of change number on new lease and otherwise, but it all comes from a really low base.

你可能會看到，我們也期待看到一些改善，我希望明年年初就能看到，但也可能更晚，這取決於二階導數中的就業情況以及新租賃和其他方面的變化率，但這一切都是從一個非常低的基數開始的。

So again, I think it's a certainty that coastal markets will have higher same-store revenue growth, and every market is a little different because they've written better leases this year and that those are going to affect next year. I think the opportunity in the Sunbelt markets, including our expansion markets, is to start to maybe stabilize occupancy and maybe start to move up -- reduce concessions and move up new lease levels, but I think it's just going to be more of higher cash flow late in '26 and into '27 more so.

所以，我認為沿海市場的同店收入成長肯定會更高，而且每個市場的情況都略有不同，因為他們今年簽訂了更好的租賃合同，這些合約將會影響到明年。我認為，包括我們的擴張市場在內的陽光地帶市場的機會在於，或許可以開始穩定入住率，並開始提升——減少優惠，提高新租約的水平，但我認為，在 2026 年末和 2027 年，現金流的提高將更為顯著。

Great. That's helpful. Maybe just a little bit of a wonky one here, but just wanted to ask about the some of the same-store pool changes with some of the kind of prior year acquisitions folding into the same-store going into next year.

偉大的。那很有幫助。這裡可能有點奇怪，但我只是想問一下關於同店銷售池的一些變化，以及一些前一年的收購合併到明年的同店銷售池中的情況。

Maybe if you could just sort of quantify what percent of -- and I think you mentioned it earlier, but just what percent of the same-store pool today is expansion markets and what that's going to look like next year and then maybe some of the specific assets that are going into the pool as we go to next year?

如果您能量化一下——我想您之前也提到過——目前同店市場中有多少百分比是擴張市場，明年又會是什麼樣子，以及明年會有哪些具體資產加入到這個市場中，那就太好了！

Yes. So great question. I think maybe stepping back for a minute when we think about just same-store results and kind of the steps we have. Just a reminder, we have three same-store sets. So we've got the quarter versus same period last year, all about 75,000 units.

是的。問得好。我認為，當我們思考同店業績以及我們所採取的措施時，或許應該退後一步思考一下。提醒一下，我們有三套同店商品。所以，我們統計了本季與去年同期的數據，大約是 75,000 台。

Current quarter versus last quarter, which is sequential, that's about 80,000 units. So there's about 5,000 unit difference there. Year-to-date same period, that's about 74,000, 75,000 units as well. So I think as we look to next year, my guess is it's about a 5,000 unit increase that goes into our same-store set in 2026, and that's primarily coming from those expansion markets.

本季與上季相比（環比），增加了約 8 萬台。所以兩者之間大約相差5000個單位。今年同期至今，銷量也約為 74,000 至 75,000 台。因此，我認為展望明年，我估計到 2026 年，我們的同店銷量將增加約 5000 台，這主要來自那些擴張的市場。

Yes. Just -- I think that's exactly right. And it's Mark. All I'd add there, Adam, is this is something Michael said. A lot of the assets we're adding are suburban assets in Dallas, suburban assets in Atlanta, suburban assets in Denver that by and large, are going to look better than the performance of the assets we already own in the same-store set which because we brought them early, we got pretty good basis, but they tended to be urban assets, and they've not performed as well as our suburban portfolio has in the last year or so.

是的。我覺得——完全正確。是馬克。亞當，我只想補充一點，這是麥可說過的話。我們新增的許多資產都是達拉斯郊區的資產、亞特蘭大郊區的資產、丹佛郊區的資產，總的來說，這些資產的表現將比我們已經擁有的同類型資產更好。由於我們很早就收購了這些資產，所以我們獲得了相當不錯的基礎，但它們往往是城市資產，而且在過去一年左右的時間裡，它們的表現不如我們的郊區投資組合。

Though when they weren't in same-store, they did pretty well. So some of that is less observable to you. So anyway, I would guess that you're going to see 4,000 to 5,000 more units in the annual same-store set that Michael will give you guidance on in three months.

不過，當他們不在同一家商店時，他們的業績相當不錯。所以其中一些現像你可能不太容易觀察到。總之，我估計在麥可三個月後會給出指導的年度同店銷售數據中，你會看到 4000 到 5000 個單位的銷售成長。

John Pawlowski, Green Street.

約翰‧帕夫洛夫斯基，格林街。

Michael, outside of the D.C. Metro, what other markets do you see a real cooling of demand in the last month or two?

邁克爾，除了華盛頓特區都會區之外，你認為在過去一兩個月裡，還有哪些市場的需求出現了明顯的降溫？

John, it's a little bit hard to hear you. You just asked on where else did we see a decline in demand in the last month or so, other markets?

約翰，我有點聽不清楚你說話。你剛才問的是，在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們還在哪些市場看到了需求下降？

Yes, (multiple speakers) -- sorry for the quiet voice.

是的，（多人發言）－抱歉我聲音很小。

Yes. No, that's okay. I think, I would put Boston kind of into this mix as well for us, which is we've been watching kind of Boston. It's a very seasonal market in general. But I think what we've seen right now is just a little bit more softening than you otherwise would have expected.

是的。不，沒關係。我認為，波士頓也算是我們關注的焦點之一，因為我們一直在關注波士頓。這是一個季節性很強的市場。但我認為我們目前看到的只是比預期略微緩和一些而已。

And when we started this year, we thought this urban core of Boston was going to do better than the suburban. Again, we're 70% urban in that market, 30% suburban. It's absolutely playing out that way where the urban portfolio is outperforming the suburban but it's just not as robust as what we would have thought. So we've kind of taken down that fourth quarter projection as well.

今年年初的時候，我們認為波士頓市中心地區的情況會比郊區好。同樣，我們在這個市場中 70% 的客戶來自城市，30% 來自郊區。實際情況確實如此，城市投資組合的表現優於郊區投資組合，但其表現並沒有我們想像的那麼強勁。所以我們也下調了第四季的預測。

And I think I even alluded to some of this on the last quarter call, which is we clearly had headline risk there. And I think right now, what we're seeing is a confirmation that a weaker biotech sector, pullback in university and research funding immigration challenges are all just chipping away at this overall demand levels in the market.

而且我認為我在上個季度的電話會議上也提到過這一點，那就是我們顯然面臨頭條新聞風險。我認為目前我們看到的情況證實，生技產業的疲軟、大學和研究經費的減少以及移民方面的挑戰，都在削弱市場的整體需求水準。

And I think right now, when we turn the corner and we start off next year, I still think the urban portfolio is positioned to outperform the suburban, but we got to get through some of these kind of near-term demand driver vulnerabilities that we're seeing right now.

我認為，當我們迎來轉機，進入明年時，城市投資組合的表現仍然會優於郊區投資組合，但我們必須克服目前我們看到的一些短期需求驅動因素的脆弱性。

Okay. Second one for me. Bob, could you spend a minute or two just help and frame like what type of changes are you going to be incorporating in the underwriting process now that you're at the helm and the investments organization and just generally, how your approach will be different either philosophically or the data you're using, the processes.

好的。這是我的第二件。鮑勃，你能否花一兩分鐘時間，幫我梳理一下，既然你現在掌管投資機構，你將在承銷流程中引入哪些類型的變革？總的來說，你的方法在理念、使用的數據和流程上會有哪些不同？

Could you just spend a few minutes talking through how the investments work and how your underwriting properties and markets are going to be different in the next 5 to 10 years versus the last 5 to 10 years?

您能否花幾分鐘時間講解一下投資運作方式，以及您承銷的房產和市場在未來 5 到 10 年與過去 5 到 10 年會有哪些不同？

Yes. I don't think there's anything that's like particularly like wholesale change in terms of strategy, et cetera. But I think you pinpointed something that it's a huge opportunity that Alex was already really starting on, which is just this data-driven mindset.

是的。我認為在策略等方面，並沒有特別徹底的改變。但我認為你指出了一個巨大的機遇，而 Alex 已經開始真正著手實現這一點，那就是數據驅動的思維方式。

So I think you guys probably see it in your own investment space where there's just incredibly larger amounts of data sets and there's better ways of analyzing that data and relational data around that. And we're fortunate to have a long history of our own data set that we can work together in making kind of better decisions.

所以我覺得你們可能在自己的投資領域也看到了這一點，那裡有大量的數據集，而且有更好的方法來分析這些數據以及相關的關聯數據。我們很幸運擁有悠久的歷史數據，我們可以利用這些數據做出更好的決策。

So I think it's just continuing to lean into something that frankly started before my transition and that I hope to accelerate. And I think that's part of the excitement of the opportunity for me personally is to kind of take it to call it EQR, 3.0, 4.0, whatever iteration you want to say. And we're fortunate to be on a platform where we have a lot of data and a lot of skilled people who know how to do this. And so that's the excitement, if you can't hear it in my voice.

所以我覺得這只是繼續推進一些在我變性之前就開始的事情，我希望能夠加速發展。而我認為，對我個人而言，這個機會令人興奮的部分原因在於，我可以稱它為 EQR、3.0、4.0，或任何你想稱呼的迭代版本。我們很幸運能在一個擁有大量數據和眾多懂得如何做這件事的熟練人才的平台上工作。所以，這就是讓我興奮的地方，如果你從我的聲音裡聽不出來的話。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Ami on with Michael. What impact, if any, do you expect from the announced Amazon layoffs? How exposed is your portfolio to the specific submarkets most likely to be impacted?

這是Ami和Michael的連線。您認為亞馬遜宣布的裁員計畫會產生什麼影響（如果有的話）？您的投資組合在多大程度上受到最有可能受到影響的特定子市場的影響？

Yes. Ami, this is Mike. I'll take a shot at that. So first and foremost, I think this is one of the benefits you have of us having a diversified portfolio that you kind of derisk some of this kind of direct pressure from any one employer. That being said, if I looked at the entire portfolio today, again, we capture employment data at the time of application.

是的。艾米，我是麥克。我來試試。首先，我認為擁有多元化投資組合的好處之一就是可以降低任何單一雇主的直接壓力。也就是說，如果我今天查看整個投資組合，我們會再次收集申請時的就業數據。

So we don't follow somebody once they move in as to where they're currently being employed. But if I just looked at that snapshot today, we have about 3% of our units that had residents employed at Amazon at the time they moved in with us. I looked at the concentration across them, obviously, markets like Seattle, where you have a heavy employment space from Amazon. We have a higher percentage there.

所以，我們不會追蹤搬進來的人目前的就業情況。但如果我今天只看這個快照，我們大約有 3% 的單元房的住戶在搬進來的時候是亞馬遜的員工。我考察了這些市場的集中度，顯然，像西雅圖這樣的市場，亞馬遜在那裡提供了大量的就業機會。我們那裡的比例更高。

But for us, that gets very isolated. We have three properties in South Lake Union, where we have a high percentage of Amazon employees. . I also want to just call out that we've been through this before with these kind of layoff announcements and looking at some of the stuff that's hitting the press now about Amazon, it is more dispersed across several markets. This is not a light switch. It's not immediate.

但對我們來說，這會變得非常孤立。我們在南湖聯盟區擁有三處房產，那裡有許多亞馬遜員工。。我還想指出，我們以前也經歷過類似的裁員公告，而且從現在媒體報道的亞馬遜的情況來看，裁員涉及的市場更加分散。這不是電燈開關。這不會立即發生。

These are very kind of well skilled, employed individuals. Many of them will receive severance packages. I think in the case of Amazon, they're given 90 days to go find alternative roles within the company. I looked yesterday, even at a couple of markets like in D.C. they still have 300 positions posted.

這些都是非常友善、技能嫻熟且有工作的人。他們中的許多人將獲得遣散費。我認為亞馬遜會給他們 90 天時間在公司內部尋找其他職位。我昨天查看了一下，即使是像華盛頓特區這樣的幾個市場，仍然有 300 個職缺。

So it's not like they pulled down all their available positions either. So I look at this and I say, look, any time you have these big headlines that take away from the top of funnel demand, that's not a positive, right? In today's day and time, we're looking for job growth. But comparing that to isolated pressure, I'm just -- I don't see this as a big concern for us.

所以他們也不是把所有職缺都撤掉了。所以我看到這種情況就說，你看，任何時候，當這些大新聞分散了漏斗頂端的需求時，這不是一件好事，對吧？如今，我們都在尋求職涯發展機會。但與孤立的壓力相比，我——我不認為這對我們來說是個大問題。

Okay. That's helpful. And then next question is on leasing concessions. They still had a relatively low level of rents, but on a year-over-year basis, they jumped up pretty materially. What are you offering in terms of concessions? And are they concentrated in certain markets? And last question, are you offering any concessions on renewal?

好的。那很有幫助。下一個問題是關於租賃優惠的。雖然租金水平仍然相對較低，但與前一年相比，租金卻大幅上漲。你們在優惠政策上提供了哪些條件？它們是否集中在某些特定市場？最後一個問題，續約方面你們會提供任何優惠嗎？

So this is Michael again. Very, very limited concessions are being used into our renewal process at all. I think on a cash basis in the third quarter, we did use more concessions than we originally expected. I will just put this in terms of days per move-ins. So in the third quarter move-ins, we averaged about seven days of rent being concessed and that increase was clearly targeted into occupancy leans in some of these markets like D.C. and the expansion markets are pretty heavy use of concessions right now. As we think about the fourth quarter, I would expect that concessions on an absolute dollar basis will drop off a little bit just because the sheer volume of transactions on the new lease side drops off.

我是麥可。我們在續約過程中幾乎沒有做出任何讓步。我認為，就第三季的現金流而言，我們使用的優惠措施比我們最初預期的要多。我將以每次入住所需天數來表示。因此，在第三季入住期間，我們平均減免了約 7 天的租金，而這種成長顯然是為了提高某些市場（如華盛頓特區）的入住率，而擴張市場目前也大量使用了優惠措施。展望第四季度，我預計絕對金額的​​優惠會略有下降，因為新租賃方面的交易量將大幅減少。

But when I look at that relative to move-ins and days being concessed, my guess is we're going to tick up one day and probably be in a position next quarter to say that we've concessed about eight days per move-in for the folks that moved in, in the fourth quarter.

但當我把這和入住人數以及延期天數聯繫起來看時，我估計我們會增加一天，並且下個季度我們可能會說，在第四季度，我們為每位入住者平均延期了大約八天。

Concessions right now are sticky in some of the markets, even in like a market like Seattle, that has some decent demand, you just see some more widespread use happening. And I think this is just a function of where you had supply delivered in 2025, and you're still working through the absorption of that supply, many of the owners of those types of assets, increased concessions heading into the fourth quarter and many of the stabilized assets in those submarkets followed suit. And that's kind of what we're feeling.

目前，一些市場的特許經營權仍然難以落實，即使在像西雅圖這樣需求不錯的市場，也只能看到更廣泛的應用。我認為這僅僅取決於 2025 年的供應情況，而你仍在努力消化這些供應，許多此類資產的所有者在進入第四季度時加大了讓步力度，這些子市場中的許多穩定資產也紛紛效仿。而這正是我們現在的感受。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

Haendel St. Juste，瑞穗。

My question is on the 4Q '25 blend guide, 50 basis points. I was hoping you could set some light on the range of expectations there for say, your weaker coastal markets like DC, Boston, LA as well as some of your better markets like San Fran, New York, Seattle.

我的問題是關於 2025 年第四季混合指南，50 個基點。我希望您能闡明一下，例如，對於像華盛頓特區、波士頓、洛杉磯這樣較弱的沿海市場，以及像舊金山、紐約、西雅圖這樣較好的市場，預期範圍是怎樣的。

Haendel, this is Michael. I'm going to stay away from giving kind of any like specific market numbers relative to blend. I'll tell you, the trends that you see are probably going to -- and continue in the fourth quarter. San Francisco is going to be one of the better performing markets, same with New York. You clearly have seasonality in the stats, and I think everybody needs to remember if even if you went back and looked at like 2019 data, you have material declines in the fourth quarter just based on seasonality in it by itself.

韓德爾，我是麥可。我不會給出任何與混合比例相關的具體市場數據。我可以告訴你，你看到的這些趨勢很可能會——而且會在第四季繼續下去。舊金山將成為表現較好的市場之一，紐約也是如此。統計數據中顯然存在季節性因素，我認為每個人都需要記住，即使回顧 2019 年的數據，僅從季節性因素本身來看，第四季度也會大幅下降。

So markets like Boston will be more negative in the fourth quarter than they were in the third, even when the market is performing well. So I think for us, rather than go kind of market by market, I would expect to say that the trend that you see in the fourth quarter or the pecking order is probably going to continue into -- or what you see in the third quarter is probably going to continue into the fourth quarter, but there will be continued deceleration probably across most of the markets.

因此，即使市場表現良好，像波士頓這樣的市場在第四季也會比第三季更加疲軟。所以我認為，與其逐個市場分析，不如說，你在第四季度看到的趨勢或市場格局可能會延續到第四季度——或者說，你在第三季度看到的趨勢可能會延續到第四季度，但大多數市場可能會繼續放緩。

Got it. That's fair enough. And I don't know if I missed it, but did you give new and renewals for October?

知道了。這很合理。我不知道我是否錯過了，但你們公佈了十月份的新會員和續費會員資訊嗎？

We did not give that, and we're not going to give any kind of spot month kind of stat. I think I gave some of my remarks around the renewal side of the business that the quotes are out in the marketplace, and we have a lot of consistency there and would expect about 4.25% achieved renewal rate increases in the fourth quarter.

我們沒有提供，也不會提供任何當月的具體統計數據。我認為我已經就續約業務方面發表了一些看法，報價已經公佈在市場上，我們在這方面保持著很高的穩定性，預計第四季度續約率將增長約 4.25%。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

Rich Hightower，巴克萊銀行。

Mark, I think just to maybe put a finer point on some of the comments on the expansion markets. I guess, with some of the absorption dynamics that you described, I mean, do you expect a normal seasonal curve next year starting in -- or is it going to look different kind of in the way it looked this year? And then similarly, can we expect positive market rents given the trends that you're seeing sort of extrapolating? Just to be clear.

馬克，我想就擴張市場的一些評論補充一些更具體的觀點。我想，根據你描述的一些吸收動態，我的意思是，你預計明年會像往常一樣出現季節性曲線嗎？還是會像今年這樣呈現不同的面貌？同樣地，根據你觀察到的趨勢進行推斷，我們能否預期市場租金為正？澄清一下。

Well, every portfolio is different and every market is different. So you could have people less and more optimistic because of their portfolio composition in a specific place. And again, we don't report to be experts in every submarket in every location. And there's a lot of places in the Sunbelt like Phoenix, we don't do business at all. So we wouldn't have a perspective on that.

每個投資組合都不同，每個市場也不同。因此，由於特定地區的投資組合組成不同，人們的樂觀程度可能會有所差異。再次聲明，我們並不聲稱自己是每個地區每個細分市場的專家。在陽光地帶，像鳳凰城這樣的地方，我們根本不做生意。所以我們對此沒有看法。

I think the answer to that is this job growth thing. If we, as a country, see decent job growth next year, I think the markets will have their normal seasonality. Most markets across the country have less supply in the coastal markets, particularly we've highlighted a lot less supply. I think if we see job growth, I think we are off to the races in our coastal markets, and I think you'll see the recovery begin in our expansion markets in a more profound way than it has so far.

我認為答案就在於就業成長。如果明年我國就業成長良好，我認為市場將呈現正常的季節性波動。全國大部分地區的供應量都較少，沿海地區的供應量尤其少，我們已經重點指出了這一點。我認為，如果我們看到就業成長，我認為我們的沿海市場將會蓬勃發展，我認為你會看到我們的擴張市場以比目前更深刻的方式開始復甦。

So my bet is that this is a pause in jobs, not a significant and long-lived downturn. The big question, to be honest, is whether the pause continues in and through the leasing season. If it gets better in the third and fourth quarter of next year, that's nice, but we will have done and our competitors will have done a lot of their leases by then.

所以我認為這只是就業市場的暫時停滯，而不是一次重大且長期的經濟衰退。說實話，最大的問題是，這種暫停狀態是否會持續到租賃旺季結束。如果明年第三季和第四季情況好轉，那當然很好，但到那時，我們和我們的競爭對手都將完成許多租賃交易。

So I think, Rich, it's just a question of whether when you start to get to April and May, you're feeling better about the job situation. There's reasons you should, right? I mean the Fed, we expect in a few hours is going to lower interest rates. There is more certainty on the tax and regulatory side than there was even six months ago. There appears to be more certainty even on the tariff side, though that is a dynamic input still.

所以我覺得，里奇，這只是一個問題，到了四月和五月，你對工作狀況是否會感覺好一點。你這樣做是有原因的，對吧？我的意思是，我們預計聯準會將在幾個小時後降低利率。與六個月前相比，稅收和監管的確定性更高了。即使在關稅方面，似乎也更有確定性，儘管關稅仍然是一個動態因素。

So there are a lot of things that look a little better known. And I think maybe employers will be a little more risk on in the new year. So we'll just have to see. But I think the job thing is the key to the whole puzzle, and certainly is a wild card at this point.

所以有很多東西看起來更廣為人知一些。我認為，在新的一年裡，雇主可能會更願意承擔一些風險。所以，我們只能拭目以待了。但我認為工作這件事才是解開整個謎題的關鍵，而且在這個階段肯定是個變數。

Okay. That's helpful. And then finally, just a quick one, and maybe this is for Bret. And Bret, it's good to hear you on the other end of the line. -- Yes, of course.

好的。那很有幫助。最後，就簡單提一句，也許這是給布雷特的。布雷特，很高興聽到你電話那頭的聲音。 ——是的，當然。

And then just on the guidance, really quick, guys. There's a $0.04 swing on $1.4 midpoint for 4Q. So just help explain what the swing factors might be between now and the end of the year, which is obviously not so many days.

然後，就指導部分，各位，簡單說幾句。第四季中點價 1.4 美元有 0.04 美元的波動。所以請幫忙解釋一下從現在到年底（顯然時間不多了）之間可能存在的波動因素。

Yes. Look, I think we've got clearly other income growth, which we mentioned is going to help alongside with that swing and then we've got also rental income contributing in the fourth quarter as well. That pretty much makes up the difference of it.

是的。你看，我認為我們顯然還有其他收入成長，正如我們之前提到的，這將有助於緩解這種波動，此外，第四季度租金收入也將有所貢獻。這基本上就彌補了兩者之間的差異。

Yes. And just to understand the variation because that is you're sort of highlighting that, that $16 million of total difference, we do have our overhead stop. A lot of the bonuses and other things, frankly, are determined in the current period so we don't know those numbers. The same with a lot of medical reserves and things, Rich, that kind of are inside baseball and not particularly interesting, but do have an effect on the numbers.

是的。為了理解這種差異，因為你強調了這一點，總共 1600 萬美元的差異，我們確實有我們的管理費用限制。坦白說，很多獎金和其他事項都是在當前時期決定的，所以我們不知道這些數字。里奇，很多醫療儲備之類的東西也是如此，這些都是業內人士才會懂的，並不特別有趣，但確實會對數字產生影響。

So that was just giving us the ability to deal with those in the period. I mean, we obviously feel good about the midpoint or we wouldn't have said it there, but there are puts and takes at the end of each year and they are, frankly, relatively unpredictable and uncorrelated to each other.

所以，這讓我們有能力應付那段時期所遇到的這些問題。我的意思是，我們顯然對年中表現感到滿意，否則我們也不會這麼說，但每年年底都會有盈虧，坦白說，這些盈虧相對來說難以預測，而且彼此之間也沒有相關性。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

Great. So I guess just some of the line items in our model, we're hoping to get a little more clarity on as we think about '26. Can you talk us through your latest thoughts on loss to lease if the push out of other income will affect '26 at all? Like there will be any kind of bump there that we should be thinking about?

偉大的。所以我想，我們希望在考慮 2026 年的時候，能夠更清楚地了解我們模型中的一些具體項目。您能否談談您對租賃損失的最新看法，看看其他收入的減少是否會對 2026 年產生任何影響？那裡會不會有什麼需要我們注意的顛簸呢？

Any thoughts on your insurance renewal for March? And then any other key expense line items we should be thinking about?

對三月的保險續保有什麼想法嗎？此外，還有哪些重要的支出項目值得我們考慮？

Wow, that's the gamut. It's Mark. I'm going to have Michael speak to loss to lease, which right now is probably be by the end of the year, gain the lease thing and other income a little, and I'll talk to insurance, and we'll work on expenses for you a little bit.

哇，這範圍真廣。是馬克。我會讓麥可談談租賃損失，目前來看，到年底可能會有所改善，屆時租賃收入和其他收入也會增加，我會和保險公司談談，我們也會幫你處理一些費用問題。

But we are just to be fair, rolling numbers up. I mean we don't have visibility into a lot of these numbers at the level of precision, I think you're asking. But we can talk directionally.

但為了公平起見，我們只是總結數據而已。我的意思是，我們無法精確地了解很多這類數字，我想這就是你想問的。但我們可以朝著方向討論。

Yes. And I think, Mark -- this is Michael. Mark just hit on it, right? Today, the snapshot of the portfolio, we have a gain to lease of about 1%. This is where the portfolio was in November of 2024. And I think while we originally modeled to have a little more pricing power kind of through this peak leasing season, all of this stuff does appear to be very consistent in the fact many of the other metrics and that everything is happening about a month sooner than normal.

是的。我想，馬克——這是麥可。馬克剛才說的對吧？今天，從投資組合的概況來看，我們的租賃收益率約為 1%。這是 2024 年 11 月的投資組合情況。而且我認為，雖然我們最初的設想是在租賃旺季擁有更大的定價權，但所有這些情況似乎都非常一致，因為許多其他指標都比往常提前了大約一個月發生。

So my expectation is that we're going to start out 2026 in a continued gain-to-lease environment, and then we'll go through the leasing season. And as Mark just talked about, many of those variables is going to dictate how quickly we shift back into a loss to lease, which is kind of what happened to us in 2025 because we started out in a moderate gain to lease and very quickly moved into a loss-to-lease environment.

所以我預計 2026 年我們將繼續處於增租環境，然後進入租賃旺季。正如馬克剛才所說，許多變數將決定我們多久會重新陷入租賃虧損，這有點像我們在 2025 年遇到的情況，因為我們一開始處於租賃盈利的階段，但很快就進入了租賃虧損的環境。

I'll also hit on one of the other items. So I think, as Bret alluded to, some of the shift in the other income that we saw in '25, it's really just a timing delay and we're talking about -- it's a couple of million dollars that deferred from 2025 into 2026. So yes, it's going to help in '26, but we're still in this process of rolling all of this up to understand exactly what the full contribution from other income will be to revenue.

我還會提到其他一些東西。所以我覺得，正如布雷特所暗示的那樣，我們在 2025 年看到的其他收入的一些變化，實際上只是時間上的延遲，我們說的是——幾百萬美元從 2025 年推遲到了 2026 年。所以，是的，這會對 2026 年有所幫助，但我們仍在將所有這些因素匯總起來，以確切了解其他收入對收入的全部貢獻。

Yes. And insurance, just to hit on that, for us, a pretty small line item, 3% or 4% same-store expense, a good number this year after some really outsized numbers. Let's see how the rest of the hurricane season goes. We don't have a hurricane exposure in our portfolio, but it does affect the marketplace as a whole. So right now, it feels like the loss history or losses these insurers have incurred hasn't been very high.

是的。順便提一下保險，對我們來說，這只是一個很小的項目，佔同店支出的 3% 或 4%，在經歷了一些非常大的數額之後，今年這個數字還不錯。讓我們看看颶風季剩下的時間會如何發展。我們的投資組合中沒有颶風風險敞口，但颶風確實會影響整個市場。所以現在看來，這些保險公司的損失歷史或所遭受的損失似乎並不高。

But we'll be pretty careful and thoughtful, Jamie, like we always are on the fourth quarter call with the building blocks on revenue. I mean, clearly, there is going to be more emphasis on intra-period revenue growth next year to get to good numbers because the embedded will be good, but about the same as it was this year.

但是，傑米，我們會像往常一樣，在第四季財報電話會議上認真思考營收的各個環節，謹慎行事。我的意思是，很明顯，明年將會更加註重期間內收入成長，以取得良好的業績，因為嵌入式收入雖然不錯，但與今年大致相同。

I think we got something we can give you on occupancy because some of the markets are very, very highly occupied like New York. But we have opportunity in Los Angeles in some of these expansion markets and that number has opportunity. I think we continue to have really good interesting other income initiatives that provide value to our residents, that continue to roll out successfully and there's pluses and minuses in timing, but those will be in there too.

我認為我們可以給你一些關於入住率的信息，因為有些市場的入住率非常非常高，例如紐約。但我們在洛杉磯的一些擴張市場中擁有機會，這個數字也蘊藏著機會。我認為我們仍然有一些非常好的、有趣的其他收入來源計劃，這些計劃為我們的居民帶來了價值，並且正在成功推行。雖然在時機上有一些利弊，但這些也會被考慮。

So there will be a pretty fulsome discussion with you when we get there. But I feel confident about next year. It feels like the setup is good and the biggest thing we need is just some level of job growth. And then I think we're off to the races.

所以到了那裡之後，我們會和你進行一次相當全面的討論。但我對明年充滿信心。感覺目前的情況不錯，我們最需要的就是一定程度的就業成長。然後我覺得我們就正式開始比賽了。

Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And you guys have quoted a couple of times now, the 6.2% income growth since 2019. If you were to mark that over the last 12 months or even thoughts going forward, like where are we today on that number? And how does it differ across your markets? And what does that tell you about your ability to push rents?

好的。偉大的。那很有幫助。你們已經多次提到，自 2019 年以來收入成長了 6.2%。如果回顧過去 12 個月，或展望未來，想想我們今天在這個數字上處於什麼位置？那麼，在你們的各個市場之間又有什麼不同呢？這表示你有能力提高租金嗎？

So Jamie, just to clarify, 6.2% is year-over-year for all our new residents across the whole portfolio, 22% is the increase of all employment in San Francisco metro area in wages. So it's grown by 22% since 2019, not just our residents just in general, incomes have and rents in the market are a little above, but in the downtown area below what they were in 2019. So that's what we meant by that. Is that a helpful clarification?

所以傑米，為了澄清一下，6.2% 是我們所有新居民在整個投資組合中的年增幅，22% 是舊金山都會區所有就業機會的薪資成長。自 2019 年以來，該地區增長了 22%，不僅是我們的居民，總體而言，收入也有所增長，市場上的租金略有上漲，但市中心地區的租金低於 2019 年的水平。這就是我們的意思。這樣的解釋對您有幫助嗎？

Yes. I was thinking more across like other markets, are you seeing deceleration, acceleration I assume that will be -- it's a big governor on how much you can push rents? Just any other -- anything else that as you look at the data stands out to you guys?

是的。我更多是在考慮與其他市場一樣的情況，你認為租金是在減速還是加速？我猜想這會是一個很大的限制因素，決定著租金能漲多少？還有其他什麼嗎？你們在查看數據時，還有什麼其他方面讓你們覺得特別突出嗎？

I mean, I guess I would just look at what I would say is an affordability index like rents and incentive income. And based on new move-ins coming in, in the quarter, we're running just below 20% rent-to-income ratios which gives us a lot of confidence in the financial health of our consumers and the ability for them to be able to absorb kind of whatever the market rate growth is.

我的意思是，我想我會看看一些衡量負擔能力的指標，例如租金和激勵收入。根據本季新入住的租戶數量，我們的租金收入比略低於 20%，這讓我們對租戶的財務狀況以及他們能夠承受市場租金成長的能力充滿信心。

And income growth has been pretty good across all our markets, it's that rent growth has widely varied. So some places, rent growth has been relatively significant until two years ago and then went down like in the Sunbelt markets. But places like Seattle and San Francisco, that's the dry powder. That people, if we give them a great experience and if the supply picture improves, we have a bigger opportunity there because they have good incomes and they've had good income growth in nominal dollars, while rents in nominal dollars haven't moved very much.

我們所有市場的收入成長都相當不錯，只是租金成長差異很大。所以有些地方，直到兩年前租金成長都相當顯著，然後就下降了，像是陽光地帶的市場。但像西雅圖和舊金山這樣的地方，那就是實實在在的籌碼。如果我們能為這些人帶來良好的體驗，並且供應情況有所改善，那麼我們就有更大的機會，因為他們的收入不錯，而且他們的名義收入增長良好，而名義租金卻沒有太大變化。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

John Kim，BMO資本市場。

You're probably going to hit this question. But Mark, you mentioned that your Sunbelt markets are seeing a significant lack of pricing power, and that's due to the lingering impact of new supply. You've been talking about that for the last several years. Michael, you mentioned that net migration trends are favoring San Francisco and New York, do detect an AI demand?

你很可能會遇到這個問題。但是馬克，你提到你們陽光地帶的市場定價能力嚴重不足，這是由於新增供應的持續影響所造成的。過去幾年你一直在談論這件事。麥可，你提到淨移民趨勢有利於舊金山和紐約，你是否發現了人工智慧的需求？

Yet this quarter, your Sunbelt concentration continues to grow with the acquisition in Arlington. But just given those dynamics that you're seeing today and the fact that your same-store NOI in expansion markets are down 7%, have you thought about pausing acquisitions in Sunbelt?

然而，本季隨著在阿靈頓的收購，您在陽光地帶的業務集中度持續成長。但鑑於您目前看到的這些動態，以及您在擴張市場的同店淨營業收入下降了 7%，您是否考慮過暫停在陽光地帶的收購？

I don't hate that question at all. I like that question, John, thank you. I mean, we're committed to the strategy of having the sort of all-weather diversified portfolio. Like we said at the Investor Day, we're trying to balance supply demand opportunities and risks as well as regulation and resilience and kind of have a portfolio that is very consistent and is just a cash flow growth machine.

我一點也不討厭這個問題。約翰，我喜歡這個問題，謝謝你。我的意思是，我們致力於建立一個能夠應對各種天氣狀況的多元化投資組合。正如我們在投資者日上所說，我們正在努力平衡供需機會和風險，以及監管和韌性，並努力打造一個非常穩定且現金流持續成長的投資組合。

That said, we don't have a clock over here. Right now, it is not in our shareholders' best interest to continue to move quickly into these expansion markets, not just because of the forward next year's likely numbers in those markets, but because of the price.

也就是說，我們這裡沒有鐘。目前，繼續快速進入這些擴張市場並不符合我們股東的最佳利益，這不僅是因為這些市場明年的預期數據，還因為價格因素。

When we were buying earlier, we were buying better at better prices. And right now, 5%, 4.75% cap rates that Bob and his team have been bringing to us in premiums to replacement cost from our perspective, given where the stock is, is not a prescription for a long-term investment success. So again, no clock over here. We like being more diversified in the long run, but we will do the best thing in the current period and in the long run.

我們之前購買的時候，買到的都是更好的產品，價格也更優惠。而就目前而言，鮑伯和他的團隊向我們提出的 5%、4.75% 的保費重置成本資本化率，在我們看來，考慮到股票目前的狀況，並不是長期投資成功的良方。所以，這裡還是沒有鐘。長遠來看，我們喜歡多元化發展，但我們會兼顧當前和長遠利益，做出最好的選擇。

The great thing about the buyback this quarter and potentially going forward is by selling these lower growth assets in our existing markets in the coastal markets, we're improving the growth rate of our NOI going forward. We are improving the percentage of exposure because we're lowering the denominator in these expansion markets. So -- and by the way, we're making a great arbitrage trade between private and public.

本季以及未來回購的最大好處在於，透過出售我們在現有沿海市場成長較低的資產，我們可以提高未來淨營業收入的成長率。我們正在提高投資敞口百分比，因為我們正在降低這些擴張市場的分母。所以——順便說一句，我們正在進行私人和公共之間的套利交易。

So it kind of works all those ways, but you shouldn't think that we feel like we've got a clock going off that we need to finish this by a date. There's an opportunity to do it accretively, we're going to hit it. And if not, we're going to stand still or buy our own stock.

所以，從某種程度上來說，這些方法都行得通，但你不應該認為我們感覺自己像有時間限制，必須在某個日期前完成這件事。我們有機會逐步實現這一目標，我們一定會抓住這個機會。如果不行，我們就按兵不動或買自己的股票。

Okay. Thanks for answering that. Michael, you mentioned in your response to Brad's question about what you're seeing in D.C. today that net effective pricing is down 4%. And I just wanted some clarification on what that meant. Is that what you're seeing currently on lease assigned or what you're seeing kind of year-to-date?

好的。謝謝你的解答。邁克爾，你在回答布拉德關於你今天在華盛頓特區看到的情況的問題時提到，淨有效價格下降了 4%。我只是想弄清楚那是什麼意思。這是您目前看到的已分配租賃合約的情況，還是您看到的今年迄今為止的情況？

Yes, John, this is Michael. So what I was saying, so D.C., I want to make sure we're clear. I'm talking about the micro submarket of like DC, the district. D.C. kind of Northwest excluding Maryland, Virginia kind of portfolios. And when I reference the rates, that's our pricing trend.

是的，約翰，這是麥可。所以，我剛才說的，華盛頓特區，我想確保我們說清楚了。我指的是像華盛頓特區這樣的微型子市場，也就是該地區。華盛頓特區及西北地區（不包括馬裡蘭州、維吉尼亞州）的投資組合。我提到的價格就是我們的定價趨勢。

So basically, you were out looking on our website and you basically snapshot it today, with the net effective price against all those concessions compared it to the exact same day last year, same methodology, where would rents be on a year-over-year basis.

所以基本上，您瀏覽了我們的網站，並根據今天的實際情況，將淨有效價格與去年同一天的價格進行比較，採用相同的方法，計算出租金同比情況。

How that manifests itself through the blends and through the new lease change. It's not fully correlated because new lease is very much subjective to who moved out and then who moved into that unit and the time duration in between all of that.

這如何透過混合方式和新的租賃變更體現出來。這並非完全相關，因為新租約很大程度上取決於誰搬出了該單元，誰搬進了該單元，以及所有這些之間的時間間隔。

But I think just that spot check and time of where rents are absolute rents are on a year-over-year basis is an indicator of when I was saying that we felt pressure in isolated pockets. What did I mean by that?

但我認為，只要抽查一下租金的絕對值，看看哪些地方的租金同比變化，就能印證我之前說的，我們確實在某些地區感受到了壓力。我這話是什麼意思？

But the pricing trend tends to be a leading indicator of where blended rates are?

但價格趨勢往往是綜合利率走向的領先指標？

Yes. I mean, there has to be some correlation, right? If rents are down 4% and I'm getting ready to generate renewals that's going to put pressure on the quoted renewal offers that go out in the marketplace.

是的。我的意思是，這之間肯定存在某種關聯，對吧？如果租金下降 4%，而我正準備進行續租，這將對市場上公佈的續租報價造成壓力。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

Alex Kim，Zelman & Associates。

Could you talk about what you're seeing in the transaction market and just the quantity of for-sale supply in your markets? What does the kind of bid-ask spread look like? And could you put that in the context of the share buybacks?

能否談談您在交易市場中觀察到的情況，以及您所在市場待售房源的數量？買賣價差是什麼樣的？你能把這和股票回購連結起來解釋嗎？

Yes. It's -- Alex, it's Bob, and I'll start and maybe some of the team will augment a little bit. In terms of transaction volume, and we're seeing pretty healthy transaction volume in the private markets, right? So it's a very big -- Mark has mentioned a few times on the call already, there's a fairly large disconnect between what you're seeing in the public markets versus the private market.

是的。是－Alex，我是Bob，我先開始，也許團隊裡的其他成員會稍作補充。就交易量而言，我們看到私募市場的交易量相當健康，對吧？所以這是一個非常大的問題——馬克已經在電話會議上多次提到——公開市場和私募市場之間存在相當大的脫節。

So volume overall is about on parity with 2024 which in broader kind of historical context is about 50% of what we would have done pre-pandemic, but has, in fact, been accelerating. It's a tale of different markets and different assets. So when you have assets that are in that kind of down the middle of the fairway, call it, $80 million to $100 million, relatively new, maybe a little bit of light value add, you see a lot of bidders in the tent. You see a decent amount of transactions and you see sellers getting good prices around that kind of 4.75% cap rate that Mark alluded to in his last response and that's fairly active.

因此，整體銷量與 2024 年大致持平，從更廣泛的歷史背景來看，這大約是疫情前銷量的 50%，但實際上銷量一直在加速成長。這是一個關於不同市場和不同資產的故事。所以，當你擁有價值在 8,000 萬到 1 億美元之間、相對較新、可能略有增值潛力的資產時，你會看到很多競標者湧入帳篷。你可以看到相當多的交易，並且可以看到賣家以接近 Mark 在上次回覆中提到的 4.75% 資本化率的價格出售房產，而且市場相當活躍。

If you look at larger-scale transactions, larger assets, assets that might have a mixed-use component of it, there isn't much of a bidding tent. There isn't a lot of people interested there. And that also applies to some of the geographies, right? Some of the markets that are more geographically challenged because the operating momentum may be a little bit weaker. You're not seeing a lot of activity there.

如果你觀察規模較大的交易、較大的資產、以及可能包含混合用途成分的資產，你會發現競標者不多。那裡感興趣的人不多。這也適用於某些地區，對吧？有些市場由於地理位置的限制，營運動能可能稍弱，因此面臨更大的挑戰。那裡似乎沒什麼人活動。

But there are -- there is plenty of private capital out there in general, and it's fairly liquid and pretty aggressive on pricing. So the opportunity set, as we've said on the call already, is our shares more at the moment.

但確實存在——市場上有許多私人資本，而且流動性相當好，定價也相當激進。所以，正如我們在電話會議上已經提到的，目前的機會在於買進我們的股票。

Got it. Yes. I appreciate the detail there. And then I noticed that the completion date for your unconsolidated development in Washington state was pulled forward about a year. Could you talk about what allowed for the faster construction time line?

知道了。是的。我很欣賞你注重細節這一點。然後我注意到，您在華盛頓州的非合併開發項目的竣工日期提前了大約一年。能談談是什麼因素促成了更快的施工進度嗎？

Yes. So Bret and I were actually just out there in August. And it's a market where the rain and seasonal patterns matter a lot and they got the footings in early and some of the more complex riskier excavation work done faster than they thought, and it was just kind of binary, and it's moving along really, really well. Kirkland is a great place to have a brand-new asset. We're really excited about that and thrilled that we'll be getting our hands on it a little sooner.

是的。所以，我和布雷特八月才去過那裡。在這個市場，降雨和季節性模式非常重要，他們很早就打好了地基，一些更複雜、風險更高的挖掘工作也比他們預想的更快完成，事情就這麼簡單，進展非常順利。柯克蘭是擁有全新資產的絕佳地點。我們對此感到非常興奮，也很高興能早點拿到它。

But it really was we made a sort of average estimate on how long it would take and some of this more complex and riskier, frankly, excavation and other work just got done really quick and really well without any problems at all and off to the races we are now with framing and a lot of stuff that is generally more routine.

但實際上，我們對所需時間做了一個大致的估計，坦白說，其中一些更複雜、風險更高的挖掘和其他工作完成得非常快、非常好，沒有任何問題，現在我們已經全力以赴地進行框架搭建和許多通常更常規的工作了。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

As we're about to go into election cycle, just curious if there are any states or counties that you're kind of watching for anything on any kind of ballot that could have an impact on your rent practices? And then specifically also kind of around New York any thoughts on the major roll rates and any potential implications?

隨著選舉週期的臨近，我很好奇您是否特別關注某些州或縣的選票，因為這些選票上的任何內容都可能對您的租金支付方式產生影響？另外，關於紐約地區的主要滾動利率以及可能的影響，大家有什麼看法？

It's Mark. Thanks for that question. So I'm going to start by taking a little bit of what I think is a fair and more optimistic take on regulation. I mean, we've had good activity in California with Governor Newsom's leadership and passing a new law that really liberalizes zoning in areas that are near transit hubs and will create more supply. And is really good public policy and similar, frankly, to what was done in a very red state down in Florida.

是馬克。謝謝你的提問。所以，我打算先從我認為比較公平、比較樂觀的監管觀點開始談談我的看法。我的意思是，在紐森州長的領導下，加州房地產市場發展良好，通過了一項新法律，真正放寬了交通樞紐附近地區的規劃限制，這將創造更多供應。而且這確實是一項很好的公共政策，坦白說，它與佛羅裡達州這個非常保守的州所採取的做法類似。

So there are a lot of places where there's a lot of good things going on in terms of increasing housing supply. Congress or at least excuse me, the Senate passed a bill that was bipartisan, again, supporting housing. The federal government doesn't have nearly the tools that the states and localities do, but that was very positive as well.

因此，在增加住房供應方面，有很多地方正在發生很多好事。國會，或至少更準確地說，是參議院，通過了一項兩黨共同支持的住房法案。聯邦政府擁有的資源遠不及各州和地方政府，但這同時也是非常正面的面向。

In terms of areas of concern, areas of focus. New York, I mean, we've talked about it on prior calls. We are assuming, I think, like many that [Mr. Mamdami] will win, the industry associations we belong to have been in conversation with him. He has sat in his various campaign announcements, he'd like to increase supply a lot in New York and the private sector builders are the ones who can do that for.

就關注領域和重點領域而言。紐約，我的意思是，我們之前通話時已經討論過這個問題了。我認為，和許多人一樣，我們都認為[馬姆達米先生]會獲勝，我們所屬的行業協會也一直在和他進行溝通。在他的各種競選聲明中，他都表示希望大幅增加紐約的住房供應，而私人建築商是能夠做到這一點的。

So our message to him through our association is use us to help add to New York's housing supply and that rent control is bad. By the time he gets in office, if he wins, and the rent control stabilization board speaks on these rent issues. We're just going to have a very small percentage of our units subject to that risk.

因此，我們透過協會向他傳達的訊息是：利用我們來幫助增加紐約的住房供應，租金管制是不好的。等到他當選總統，租金管制穩定委員會就這些租金問題發表演說時。只有極小比例的單位會面臨這種風險。

So for us, it's not as significant directly but certainly, we want to keep having those conversations if he ends up being the Mayor and push the supply side solutions programs like the new 421a program and things like that are really positive.

所以對我們來說，這並沒有那麼直接的重要性，但如果他最終當選市長，我們當然希望繼續進行這些對話，並推動像新的 421a 計劃這樣的供給側解決方案計劃，這真的很有積極意義。

We are keeping our eyes on Seattle. There's a big mayoral election there next year -- or next week, pardon me, that is important for the city to continue to make progress. So those are the areas. But again, we've seen a lot of positives as well as things we need to keep focused on as an industry.

我們正密切關注西雅圖的情況。明年那裡將舉行市長選舉——或者更準確地說，是下週，這對城市能否繼續發展至關重要。以上就是各區域。但話說回來，我們看到了很多積極的方面，同時也發現了一些我們作為一個行業需要繼續關注的事情。

That's helpful. Then one more for me. From an operating expense perspective, kind of any other opportunities to kind of keep making progress there. Again, I know like same-store payroll was down like 2% year-over-year. So just curious any other levers that can be pulled in that area to kind of contain operating expense growth?

那很有幫助。那我再來一個。從營運費用的角度來看，還有其他任何機會可以繼續在這方面取得進展。我知道同店薪資支出較去年同期下降了約 2%。所以，我很好奇，在這個領域還有哪些方法可以控制營運費用的成長？

Maybe I'll start and Bret can kind of add some color on top of it. I think just in terms of operational excellence, the reality is you're just -- we're never done with that pursuit. This is something that's wired into the DNA of our company. We just outlined in my prepared remarks, some of the initiatives that we've been working on to layer in kind of continuations of automation centralization.

或許我可以先開始，然後布雷特可以在上面添加一些色彩。我認為就卓越營運而言，現實情況是——我們永遠不會停止追求卓越。這是已經融入我們公司基因的一部分。我在剛才的演講稿中概述了我們一直在努力推進的一些舉措，這些舉措旨在逐步推動自動化集中化。

And all of those do lead to kind of reduced payroll and operating efficiencies being garnered inside the portfolio. So we're really excited. I wouldn't even say that we're in the early inning and there's still a lot of opportunity in front of us to become a more efficient kind of operator by leveraging technology.

所有這些都確實有助於降低工資支出，並在投資組合內部提高營運效率。所以我們真的很興奮。我什至不會說我們還處於起步階段，我們仍然有很多機會透過利用科技成為更有效率的營運者。

Yes. I might add, just I think one of the things we called out was utility expenses were a bit higher. I think one of the areas that stood out was trashed. And I think there's some opportunities for us, as Michael alluded to, to put some best practices in place where we can actually really drive that specific number down. And I think that will be helpful as we go into next year.

是的。我還要補充一點，我們之前提到的一點是水電費有點高。我認為其中一個最引人注目的地方是一片狼藉。正如邁克爾所暗示的那樣，我認為我們有機會採取一些最佳實踐，從而真正降低這個具體數字。我認為這對我們明年的發展會有所幫助。

And it appears there are no additional questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to Mark Parrell for closing remarks.

目前看來沒有其他問題了。我將把電話轉回給馬克·帕雷爾，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Shelly. I thank everyone on the call for their interest in Equity Residential, and we'll see you on the road over the next few months. Thank you very much.

謝謝你，雪莉。感謝各位對 Equity Residential 的關注，我們期待在接下來的幾個月與大家見面。非常感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。